使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ericsson's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results of 2023. With me today, I have, as usual, our CEO, Börje Ekholm; and our CFO, Carl Mellander. And we will end this presentation as normal with Q&A. And in order to ask questions, you will need to join the conference by phone. Details can be found on today's press release or on our website, ericsson.com/investors. Please be also advised that this conference is recorded.
大家好,歡迎來到愛立信 2023 年第四季和全年業績。今天和往常一樣,和我在一起的還有我們的執行長 Börje Ekholm;以及我們的財務長卡爾·梅蘭德。我們將像往常一樣以問答結束本次演示。為了提問,您需要透過電話加入會議。詳情請參閱今天的新聞稿或我們的網站 ericsson.com/investors。另請注意,本次會議已錄製。
But before handing over to Börje, I would like to read the following. During today's presentation, we will be making forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our current expectation and certain planning assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. The actual result may differ materially due to factors mentioned in today's press release and discussed in this conference call. We encourage you all to read about these risks and uncertainties in the earnings report today as well as in the annual report.
但在交給 Börje 之前,我想先閱讀以下內容。在今天的演講中,我們將做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的預期和某些計劃假設,這些假設存在風險和不確定性。由於今天的新聞稿中提到的以及本次電話會議中討論的因素,實際結果可能會存在重大差異。我們鼓勵大家閱讀今天的收益報告以及年度報告中有關這些風險和不確定性的信息。
With that said, I would like to hand over the word to Börje. So please, Börje.
話雖如此,我想把這個字交給 Börje。所以拜託,Börje。
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today.
謝謝彼得,大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。
So in 2023, we navigated a difficult mobile networks market, marked by persistent headwinds and an unprecedented slowdown in the North American market, which really saw customers reducing CapEx significantly. With the rapid growth in India, we saw a dramatic change in business mix. But overall, the total mobile networks market really fell in size.
因此,在 2023 年,我們度過了一個艱難的行動網路市場,其特點是持續的阻力和北美市場前所未有的放緩,這確實導致客戶大幅減少了資本支出。隨著印度的快速成長,我們看到業務結構發生了巨大變化。但整體而言,行動網路市場整體規模確實有所下降。
Notwithstanding these challenges, we continue to execute on our strategy, and I'm pleased to say that we concluded 2023 with a solid quarter, and we succeeded in generating an EBITA of SEK 21.4 billion for the full year. Through our strong focus on gross margin that we've had for many years, as you know, we generated almost 40% gross margin for the year. While our actions to improve performance are paying off, we're not satisfied with our profitability, so we have clearly much more work to do.
儘管面臨這些挑戰,我們仍繼續執行我們的策略,我很高興地說,我們在2023 年結束了一個穩健的季度,並成功實現了全年214 億瑞典克朗的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITA )。如您所知,透過我們多年來對毛利率的高度關注,我們今年的毛利率達到了近 40%。雖然我們提高績效的行動正在取得成效,但我們對獲利能力並不滿意,因此我們顯然還有更多的工作要做。
As we look ahead, 2024 will be a difficult year, and market conditions will prevail, so we currently expect the current market outside of China to further decline as our customers remain cautious and the investment pace normalizes in India. With that in mind, we remain laser-focused on managing what's in our control. We are consistently driving operational efficiency while keeping the investments critical to our future growth intact. We remain firmly committed to our long-term goals of 15% to 18% EBITA and 9% to 12% free cash flow, and we are seeking to maximize the value for all our stakeholders.
展望未來,2024 年將是艱難的一年,市場狀況將占主導地位,因此我們目前預計,由於我們的客戶保持謹慎以及印度的投資步伐正常化,當前中國以外的市場將進一步下滑。考慮到這一點,我們仍然專注於管理我們控制範圍內的事情。我們不斷提高營運效率,同時保持對我們未來成長至關重要的投資完好無損。我們仍然堅定地致力於 15% 至 18% 的 EBITA 和 9% 至 12% 的自由現金流的長期目標,並且我們正在尋求為所有利益相關者實現價值最大化。
Let me now walk you through some of the key takeaways from the past year and how our strategy is critical to the industry's long-term success. So next slide, please.
現在讓我向您介紹過去一年的一些關鍵要點,以及我們的策略對於產業長期成功的重要性。請下一張投影片。
As expected, 2023 was a difficult year for the mobile network market with an overall decline combined with a dramatic change in market mix. Group sales declined organically by 10%, driven by an overall decrease of 15% in networks, with North America being down by almost 50%. We work relentlessly to strengthen our performance and cost management. We recognized already in -- more than a year ago, the need to take costs out. And during 2023, we've implemented efficiency improvement, including reducing internal and external headcount by more than 9,000. And this has actually enabled us to deliver against our cost savings target of SEK 12 billion gross out. About half of that came into effect in 2023, and the remainder will come during 2024.
如預期,2023年對於行動網路市場來說是艱難的一年,整體下滑,市場結構發生巨大變化。由於網路整體下降 15%,集團銷售額自然下降了 10%,其中北美地區下降了近 50%。我們堅持不懈地加強績效和成本管理。我們一年多前就已經意識到需要削減成本。 2023 年,我們實施了效率提升,包括減少內部和外部員工 9,000 多人。這實際上使我們能夠實現總成本節約 120 億瑞典克朗的目標。其中約一半將於 2023 年生效,其餘部分將於 2024 年生效。
Because of our efforts that we've done in the past few years and you know the importance we place on gross margin, we were able to deliver a gross margin of 39.6% and an EBITA margin of 8.1% for the year. I would say given an almost unprecedented market environment with volume declines as well as business mix change, I think this was a very solid performance by the team here.
由於我們過去幾年所做的努力,並且您知道我們對毛利率的重視,我們今年的毛利率為 39.6%,息稅折舊攤提前利潤率為 8.1%。我想說,考慮到銷售下降以及業務結構變化的幾乎前所未有的市場環境,我認為這裡的團隊表現非常穩健。
Across our business areas, we also took critical steps in building a stronger, more profitable Ericsson. In mobile networks, we continue to extend our technology leadership. Our leading technology empowers customers to build high-performance, differentiated and programmable networks while also leading the shift to open cloud-native networks. The contract with AT&T is a key proof point demonstrating how our technology is leveraged to advance the network architecture of the future and deliver reduced total cost of ownership for our customers. This deal will create significant value, both for our customer and for Ericsson, and we expect it to start to ramp up in the second half of 2024.
在我們的業務領域,我們也採取了關鍵步驟,打造更強大、利潤更高的愛立信。在行動網路方面,我們繼續擴大我們的技術領先地位。我們的領先技術使客戶能夠建立高效能、差異化和可編程網絡,同時引領開放雲原生網路的轉型。與 AT&T 的合約是一個關鍵的證明點,展示瞭如何利用我們的技術來推進未來的網路架構並為我們的客戶降低總擁有成本。這筆交易將為我們的客戶和愛立信創造巨大的價值,我們預計該價值將在 2024 年下半年開始增加。
In Cloud Software and Services, we executed on the turnaround plan, and we're happy to have reached that target. So for the full year, we delivered an EBITA of SEK 1.7 billion. I really want to thank the full team for their efforts. From now on, we'll continue to increase commercial discipline, automation and delivery efficiency, focusing on long-term profitability.
在雲端軟體和服務方面,我們執行了周轉計劃,我們很高興達到了這個目標。因此,我們全年的 EBITA 為 17 億瑞典克朗。我真的要感謝整個團隊的努力。從現在開始,我們將繼續提高商業紀律、自動化和交付效率,專注於長期獲利能力。
In Enterprise Wireless Solutions, we continue to build out offerings, including the acquisition of Ericom, and we further strengthened our position in private networks. During Q4, we saw slower growth due to macro headwinds. And through our global network platform, we continue to work with front-runner customers to reshape the industry by transforming the network into a platform for innovation.
在企業無線解決方案方面,我們繼續開發產品,包括收購 Ericom,並進一步鞏固了我們在專用網路中的地位。第四季度,由於宏觀不利因素,我們看到成長放緩。透過我們的全球網路平台,我們持續與領先客戶合作,將網路轉變為創新平台,重塑產業。
In parallel, we've continued to drive our cultural transformation as we focus on building a culture of integrity and strengthening our governance, risk management and compliance. All these initiatives, of course, come with a short-term cost, but I will say they're essential to our long-term competitiveness and success.
同時,我們繼續推動文化轉型,專注於建立誠信文化並加強治理、風險管理和合規性。當然,所有這些措施都會帶來短期成本,但我想說它們對我們的長期競爭力和成功至關重要。
As I said, going forward, we expect the RAN market outside of China to decline further as our customers remain cautious and the investment pace normalizes in India. However, we expect our market share in North America to be helped by the AT&T contract in the second half of 2024. It's important to note that looking historically, large declines in the mobile network market are followed by a rebound. So operators can sweat the assets up to a point, but eventually, we'll need to invest to manage the data traffic growth, cost energy usage and, of course, network quality and give the customer experience that the customer demands. And that is actually something we see will happen this time as well. So we fully anticipate the market will recover to more normalized levels.
正如我所說,展望未來,由於我們的客戶保持謹慎以及印度的投資步伐正常化,我們預計中國以外的 RAN 市場將進一步下滑。不過,我們預計我們在北美的市場份額將在 2024 年下半年得到 AT&T 合約的幫助。值得注意的是,從歷史來看,行動網路市場的大幅下滑之後會出現反彈。因此,營運商可以在一定程度上消耗資產,但最終,我們需要投資來管理數據流量成長、能源使用成本,當然還有網路質量,並提供客戶所需的客戶體驗。這其實也是我們看到的這次也會發生的事情。因此,我們完全預期市場將恢復到更正常化的水平。
However, the timing is very difficult to predict. Ultimately, this will be in the hands of our customers, and the investments will vary by customer and by market and their competitive position. We also see a somewhat slower growth in Enterprise due as well to macroeconomic headwinds.
然而,時間很難預測。最終,這將掌握在我們的客戶手中,投資將因客戶、市場及其競爭地位而異。由於宏觀經濟的不利因素,我們也看到企業的成長有所放緩。
So again, with that outlook, we will continue to prudently manage our balance sheet while keeping sight of investments critical to our long-term strategy. So as we focus on driving fundamental improvements to our cost structure, and we expect to take additional actions, including reducing headcount as we pare back some investment areas and focus our portfolio where we really can win.
因此,基於這一前景,我們將繼續審慎管理我們的資產負債表,同時專注於對我們長期策略至關重要的投資。因此,當我們專注於推動成本結構的根本改善時,我們期望採取更多行動,包括減少員工人數,削減一些投資領域,並將我們的投資組合集中在我們真正能夠獲勝的領域。
As you saw today as well, the Board has proposed a dividend of SEK 2.70 per share, corresponding to a total amount of SEK 9 billion. This is proposed to be paid out in 2 equal installments as in previous years. While recognizing the near-term challenges, I would say this is a testament to the confidence the Board has in the longer-term outlook for us as a company.
正如您今天所看到的,董事會提議派發每股 2.70 瑞典克朗的股息,相當於總額 90 億瑞典克朗。與往年一樣,建議分兩次等額支付。在認識到近期挑戰的同時,我想說,這證明了董事會對我們公司的長期前景充滿信心。
But let me now take a step back to put our achievements in the perspective of our strategy. So next slide, please.
但現在讓我退後一步,從策略的角度來看我們的成就。請下一張投影片。
While the mobile network market is challenged, it actually provides real value to the economies around the world, from regular communication for consumers to advanced digitalization for enterprises and society. But the problem is that the return on capital has been stagnant, and many operators today fight to earn cost of capital.
儘管行動網路市場面臨挑戰,但它實際上為世界各地的經濟提供了真正的價值,從消費者的常規通訊到企業和社會的先進數位化。但問題是資本報酬率一直停滯不前,如今許多業者都在努力賺取資本成本。
I think to change this, there are 2 things we can do. We can passively wait for market just to improve or regulation to change, or we try to address the issue head-on by changing how networks are consumed and monetized. As you know, we've chosen the latter route. We're actively working to reshape the industry by transforming the network into an innovation platform, leveraging cellular connectivity in new areas. So let me expand on that.
我認為要改變這一點,我們可以做兩件事。我們可以被動地等待市場的改善或監管的改變,或者我們嘗試透過改變網路的消費和貨幣化方式來正面解決問題。如您所知,我們選擇了後者。我們正在積極努力重塑產業,將網路轉變為創新平台,並在新領域利用蜂窩連接。讓我對此進行擴展。
First, we're leading the way by building high-performance and differentiated networks, which will be needed to digitalize enterprises. By horizontalizing the architecture, we are allowing our customers to prioritize investments in different parts of the network at different clock cycles. This is important as it not only offers our customers advanced network architectures, but it also allows for a lower cost of ownership.
首先,我們透過建構高效能和差異化的網路來引領潮流,這是企業數位化所需的。透過水平化架構,我們允許客戶在不同的時脈週期優先考慮對網路不同部分的投資。這很重要,因為它不僅為我們的客戶提供先進的網路架構,而且還可以降低擁有成本。
Second, with Enterprise Wireless Solutions, we extend the use of cellular connectivity through private 5G networks and wireless WAN. And third, by developing a global network platform, we enable the exposure, consumption and pavement of network APIs, which extends the market beyond consumers to enterprises as well as developers.
其次,透過企業無線解決方案,我們透過專用 5G 網路和無線廣域網路擴展了蜂窩連接的使用。第三,透過打造全球網路平台,實現網路API的公開、消費和鋪路,將市場從消費者擴展到企業和開發者。
We are changing the monetization model of the industry. And this is a shift that, of course, will take some time. But we are encouraged by the progress we've made with a partnership with DT to offer network APIs to developers and enterprises, but we're also seeing very strong progress with frontrunner customers. We're confident this will create more profitable and sustainable future for our industry and our company.
我們正在改變產業的貨幣化模式。當然,這種轉變需要一些時間。但我們對與 DT 合作向開發人員和企業提供網路 API 所取得的進展感到鼓舞,而且我們也看到領先客戶取得了非常強勁的進展。我們相信這將為我們的行業和公司創造更多利潤和可持續的未來。
So Ericsson has a clear leadership position today with leading offerings. With our strategy and the actions we're taking, we ensure that we will continue to be well positioned when the market improves.
因此,愛立信如今憑藉領先的產品佔據了明顯的領導地位。透過我們的策略和正在採取的行動,我們確保在市場改善時我們將繼續處於有利地位。
Before handing over the word to Carl, I would like also just to comment on the announcement of our new CFO, Lars Sandström. Lars will be joining us from Getinge and comes with an extensive experience and knowledge from a variety of financial and management roles. Lars will join us 1st of April. And we have also appointed Peter's successor as Head of IR, Daniel Morris, who joins us from Vodafone's IR team, with a solid experience also as a sell-side analyst.
在將這個詞交給 Carl 之前,我還想對我們新任財務長 Lars Sandström 的任命發表評論。 Lars 將從 Getinge 加入我們,他在各種財務和管理職位上擁有豐富的經驗和知識。 Lars 將於 4 月 1 日加入我們。我們還任命了彼得的繼任者丹尼爾·莫里斯(Daniel Morris)擔任投資者關係主管,他從沃達豐的投資者關係團隊加入我們,作為賣方分析師也擁有豐富的經驗。
So I would now just like to say a big thank you to both Carl and Peter for the time at Ericsson. It's truly been a privilege to work with both of you. Thank you both.
因此,我現在要對卡爾和彼得在愛立信的時光錶示衷心的感謝。與你們倆一起工作確實是一種榮幸。謝謝你們倆。
And now maybe for the last time, Carl, it's time for you to go through the numbers.
現在也許是最後一次,卡爾,是時候讓你來看看這些數字了。
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Thanks a lot, Börje. Thanks for kind words and very good morning to everyone. So I will address some of the key items around the financials here today and also some comments on the outlook going forward, so if you go to the next slide and look at Q4 to start with.
非常感謝,伯傑。謝謝大家的好意,祝大家早安。因此,我今天將在這裡討論有關財務狀況的一些關鍵問題,以及對未來前景的一些評論,因此,如果您轉到下一張投影片,請先看一下第四季。
And I would just paraphrase a bit Börje, the challenging market we saw in telecom and this market mix shift, they were really dominant factors throughout 2023. And reported full year net sales in the U.S. were down by SEK 35 billion year-over-year, but India grew by over SEK 20 billion. So you see clearly how powerful this shift was during the year 2023. And the impact of this on both profits and cash flow is clearly visible. We have communicated around that many times. Of course, however, partly countered with the cost-out efforts that -- and the achievements that we have done and efficiency improvements across the company.
我想解釋一下 Börje,我們在電信領域看到的充滿挑戰的市場和市場組合的轉變,它們確實是整個 2023 年的主導因素。據報道,美國全年淨銷售額同比下降了 350 億瑞典克朗年,但印度的經濟成長超過200 億瑞典克朗。所以你可以清楚地看到這種轉變在 2023 年有多強大。而且這種轉變對利潤和現金流的影響是顯而易見的。我們已經就這個問題進行過多次溝通。然而,當然,這在一定程度上與我們所取得的成就和整個公司效率的提高所付出的成本節約努力相抵觸。
But looking at Q4 then as a solid result despite the current market conditions, and the execution during this quarter, I believe, demonstrates stronger, increased resilience in our company and a good team effort. The group sales declined by 17% organically to SEK 71.9 billion in the fourth quarter. Partly the decline is due to the retroactive IPR revenue we had in the fourth quarter '22. But I would say the primary driver here was the continued drop in North America, where sales decreased by 43% year-over-year in the quarter. India, meanwhile, there, the 5G rollout continued, but the pace slowed. So we are up in sales in India by 10% year-over-year in Q4, but we dropped 40% sequentially as we see now the Indian market starting to normalize the investment levels following this unprecedented rollout pace that we've seen earlier in the year.
但我認為,儘管當前的市場狀況以及本季的執行情況,但第四季的業績依然穩健,這表明我們公司的韌性更強,團隊的努力也更加出色。第四季集團銷售額有機下降 17% 至 719 億瑞典克朗。下降的部分原因是我們在 22 年第四季的追溯智慧財產權收入。但我想說,主要驅動因素是北美地區的持續下滑,本季銷售額年減 43%。與此同時,印度的 5G 部署仍在繼續,但步伐放緩。因此,我們在第四季度在印度的銷售額同比增長了 10%,但我們環比下降了 40%,因為我們現在看到印度市場在我們早先看到的前所未有的推出速度之後開始使投資水平正常化。那一年。
Gross margin then, 41.1%, excluding restructuring charges, that is slightly down year-over-year. But interestingly, if we adjust for the large retroactive IPR revenue in the fourth quarter '22, it's actually an improvement in gross margin. And how did that come about? Well, gross margin in the fourth quarter was supported by a high share of software, thanks to the efforts in that area, but also the market mix. I would also call out the cost reductions across the mobile networks business. And one more factor to mention here, the lower variable pay accruals that we have seen, which is also impacting OpEx positively in Q4.
扣除重組費用後,毛利率為 41.1%,較去年同期略有下降。但有趣的是,如果我們對 22 年第四季的巨額追溯智慧財產權收入進行調整,這實際上是毛利率的改善。這是怎麼發生的?嗯,第四季度的毛利率得到了軟體的高份額的支撐,這要歸功於該領域的努力,以及市場組合。我還要強調整個行動網路業務的成本降低。這裡還要提到的一個因素是我們看到的可變薪酬應計較低,這也對第四季的營運支出產生了正面影響。
So in Networks, we achieved gross margin of 43.2%, excluding restructuring. That's exceeding the 39% to 41% range that we had guided for. And it's really a result of the activities I mentioned to improve the sales mix with a higher share of software.
因此,在網路業務中,不包括重組的情況下,我們的毛利率為 43.2%。這超出了我們指導的 39% 到 41% 的範圍。這實際上是我提到的透過提高軟體份額來改善銷售組合的活動的結果。
Further down in the P&L then EBITA, excluding restructuring, declined somewhat to SEK 8.2 billion versus SEK 9.3 billion in 2022. I mentioned already the retroactive IPR revenue, which plays into the year-over-year comparison. But we also had, last Q4, several provisions moving in the opposite direction as we disclosed at the time. So if you look at year-over-year delta, the underlying reason is really lower sales and a changed mix in the networks.
損益表進一步下降,扣除重組後的 EBITA 略有下降,降至 82 億瑞典克朗,而 2022 年為 93 億瑞典克朗。我已經提到了追溯性智慧財產權收入,這與去年同期比較有關。但上個第四季度,我們也有幾項條款朝著與我們當時披露的相反的方向發展。因此,如果你看看同比增量,根本原因實際上是銷售額下降和網路組合的變化。
Cloud Software and Services continued the positive trend, delivered an EBITA of SEK 2 billion in the quarter, driven by a couple of things, of course, operational improvement, but we see it in gross margin but also in reduced OpEx. And that resulted in a full year EBITA of SEK 1.7 billion, as Börje mentioned, which is meeting, I would say, with the margin, our, at least, breakeven ambition that we communicated earlier.
雲端軟體和服務延續了積極的趨勢,本季度實現了20 億瑞典克朗的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITA),這主要得益於營運改善等幾個因素,但我們不僅看到了毛利率,也看到了營運支出的減少。正如 Börje 所提到的,這導致全年息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITA) 達到 17 億瑞典克朗,我想說,這符合我們先前傳達的損益平衡目標。
Enterprise then grew by 7% organically, with a stable EBITA loss year-over-year. We had a negative impact in the quarter from some inventory write-offs in the Enterprise Wireless Solutions area.
Enterprise 有機成長 7%,但 EBITA 年比虧損穩定。本季我們因企業無線解決方案領域的一些庫存沖銷而受到負面影響。
Cash flow then, we delivered SEK 12.5 billion of free cash flow before M&A in the fourth quarter, and that's really ending the year on a strong note. We had strong cash collection, and we released working capital from conclusion of large deployment projects as we had expected and talked about many times.
然後是現金流,我們在第四季度併購前交付了 125 億瑞典克朗的自由現金流,這確實為今年帶來了強勁的表現。我們擁有強大的現金回籠能力,並且正如我們所預期和多次討論的那樣,我們從大型部署專案的結束中釋放了營運資金。
Then on cost-out, to reiterate here, we have now achieved the committed run rate savings of SEK 12 billion, half of which impacted the P&L in 2023 already and the remainder to impact in 2024. And here, I just want to note that, of course, the SEK 12 billion are gross savings. And meanwhile, of course, as all other companies and organizations, we still have a cost inflation going on, not least from annual salary increases that kick in. And we're likely to return in 2024 to more normalized variable pay accruals from very low levels in 2023.
然後關於成本支出,在此重申,我們現在已經實現了 120 億瑞典克朗的承諾運行率節省,其中一半已經影響了 2023 年的損益,其餘的將影響 2024 年。在這裡,我只想指出當然,這120億瑞典克朗是儲蓄總額。當然,與此同時,與所有其他公司和組織一樣,我們仍然面臨成本通膨,尤其是年薪上漲。而且我們很可能在 2024 年從非常低的水平恢復到更規範化的可變工資應計費用2023年的水平。
Restructuring provisions came to SEK 1.5 billion in the fourth quarter. And that brings the total to SEK 6.5 billion versus the previously communicated SEK 7 billion of restructuring in 2023.
第四季重組撥備達 15 億瑞典克朗。這使得總額達到 65 億瑞典克朗,而先前通報的 2023 年重整金額為 70 億瑞典克朗。
If we move on to the next slide, I look at the full year numbers. Reported sales then decreased to SEK 263.4 billion compared to SEK 271.5 billion previous year. That's a decrease by 10% organically following the weak RAN market discussed many times. IPR licensing revenues is a positive. We grew to SEK 11.1 billion versus the SEK 10.4 billion we recorded in the previous year. And we see that as a result of new 5G license renewals during the year, partly offset by some expiring agreements.
如果我們繼續看下一張投影片,我會查看全年數字。報告銷售額隨後降至 2,634 億瑞典克朗,去年為 2,715 億瑞典克朗。在多次討論 RAN 市場疲軟之後,這一數字自然下降了 10%。知識產權授權收入是正面的。我們的營收成長至 111 億瑞典克朗,而前一年為 104 億瑞典克朗。我們看到,由於今年新的 5G 許可證續簽,部分抵消了一些即將到期的協議。
Gross margin then, excluding restructuring, declined in the full year to 39.6% versus 41.8% in '22, as Börje mentioned earlier in the introduction, again, driven by operators' CapEx reductions and the market mix, as we have described many times before.
正如Börje 在前面介紹中提到的那樣,不包括重組在內的全年毛利率下降至39.6%,而22 年毛利率為41.8%,這再次受到運營商資本支出削減和市場組合的推動,正如我們已經描述的那樣以前有過幾次。
If we look at Cloud Software and Services on gross margin, we reached 36%, up from 33%, a bit more in 2022. That's encouraging. And of course, we continue to drive improvements in that segment.
如果我們看一下雲端軟體和服務的毛利率,我們將在 2022 年達到 36%,高於 33%,這一數字令人鼓舞。當然,我們將繼續推動該領域的改進。
Looking at the parts of OpEx, R&D increased about SEK 1 billion to SEK 48.2 billion, and that's impacted by a negative currency effect of SEK 0.9 billion. And you see that the mobile networks business, that's then in the segment Networks and Cloud Software and Services, was slightly down in R&D. We do increase in Enterprise, and we also have the impact, of course, of the full year consolidation of Vonage now in the numbers.
從營運支出的部分來看,研發費用增加了約 10 億瑞典克朗,達到 482 億瑞典克朗,這是受到 9 億瑞典克朗負面貨幣效應的影響。您會看到行動網路業務(當時屬於網路和雲端軟體和服務領域)的研發略有下降。我們的 Enterprise 業務確實有所成長,當然,我們也受到了 Vonage 全年合併資料的影響。
Turning to SG&A. Excluding restructuring, SEK 38 billion, also a negative currency effect here, SEK 0.7 billion in this case. Same story, we decreased in the mobile networks part but increased in Enterprise. And this has mainly to do with investments in go-to-market activities in Enterprise Wireless Solutions. Also here, of course, we have an impact from the full year consolidation of Vonage.
轉向SG&A。不包括重組,380 億瑞典克朗,這裡也有負貨幣效應,在本例中為 7 億瑞典克朗。同樣的情況,我們減少了行動網路部分,但增加了企業網路部分。這主要與企業無線解決方案上市活動的投資有關。當然,我們也受到 Vonage 全年合併的影響。
So that leads us then to an EBITA of SEK 21.4 billion, excluding restructuring in the full year. That's at 8.1% margin. Obviously, not a level we can be satisfied with in absolute terms. But again, I would like to say it illustrates the strengthened resiliency in our company and our operations considering how extremely challenged the market has been in 2023, and still, we delivered more than SEK 20 billion EBITA.
因此,在不包括全年重組的情況下,我們的 EBITA 為 214 億瑞典克朗。利潤率為 8.1%。顯然,絕對不是一個我們可以滿意的水平。但我想說,考慮到 2023 年市場面臨的嚴峻挑戰,這說明我們公司和營運的彈性有所增強,但我們仍然實現了超過 200 億瑞典克朗的 EBITA。
Free cash flow before M&A was SEK 1.1 billion negative for the full year. And as you will remember, we flagged at the outset for this. We would see a negative cash flow in 2023. It's due to the same business mix shift that we talked about on the P&L towards big rollout projects, and those projects have a longer order-to-cash cycle than the normal business mix. So now what we saw in the fourth quarter and we will continue to see is that we move out of the intense rollout phase in those projects. And therefore, we see a positive effect on working capital reduction and, therefore, free cash flow generation.
全年併購前自由現金流為負 11 億瑞典克朗。正如您所記得的,我們從一開始就對此進行了標記。我們將在 2023 年看到負現金流。這是由於我們在損益表上談到的相同業務組合轉向大型推出項目,而這些項目的訂單到現金週期比正常業務組合更長。因此,現在我們在第四季度看到並將繼續看到的是,我們正在走出這些專案的緊張推出階段。因此,我們看到了對營運資本減少以及自由現金流的正面影響。
Some data points going forward, if we move to the next one and for the first quarter. So as Börje said, we do expect the current market situation to prevail into 2024. The AT&T contract will start to ramp up during the second half. And we're expecting a gross margin here in the Networks segment to land within the range of 39% to 41%. There is a change in the mix from Q4 to Q1, and that is the reason for our guidance here, 39% to 41% with less software.
如果我們轉到下一個數據點和第一季,一些數據點將會繼續下去。因此,正如 Börje 所說,我們確實預計當前的市場狀況將持續到 2024 年。AT&T 合約將在下半年開始增加。我們預計網路業務的毛利率將在 39% 至 41% 之間。從第四季度到第一季度,組合發生了變化,這就是我們在此提供指導的原因,軟體數量從 39% 變為 41%。
Cloud Software and Services, we'll continue to invest here. We have strategic investments in the 5G portfolio. We're doing that for competitiveness and resilience, and we expect that to remain into Q1. And please remember also when it comes to Cloud Software and Services, the nature of that business is such that results will fluctuate between individual quarters. So we should not expect a linear development from quarter-to-quarter there. Then in the Enterprise segment, we expect some seasonality negatively impacting sales from Q4 to Q1 with maintained profitability level.
雲端軟體和服務,我們將繼續在這裡投資。我們對 5G 產品組合進行了策略性投資。我們這樣做是為了提高競爭力和韌性,我們預計這種情況將持續到第一季。另請記住,當涉及雲端軟體和服務時,該業務的性質決定了結果會在各個季度之間出現波動。因此,我們不應期望季度與季度之間會出現線性發展。然後在企業領域,我們預計一些季節性因素會對第四季度至第一季的銷售產生負面影響,同時保持獲利水準。
I want to comment also on OpEx and reiterate that the Q4 levels were low, partly due to these low accruals for variable pay, given the lower target fulfillment in the year. And we expect this to revert to more normal accrual levels in the first quarter. And some other factors play in as well, including annual salary increases but also the investments that I mentioned in Cloud Software and Services and Enterprise. So we would not expect OpEx in Q1 to come down as much as the average the last couple of years. So I would recommend being cautious when you model this part.
我還想對營運支出發表評論,並重申第四季度的水平較低,部分原因是考慮到今年的目標實現率較低,可變薪酬的應計費用較低。我們預計第一季將恢復到更正常的應計水準。其他一些因素也起作用,包括年薪成長以及我在雲端軟體和服務以及企業方面提到的投資。因此,我們預計第一季的營運支出不會像過去幾年的平均值一樣下降。因此,我建議您在建模此部件時要小心。
Lastly, I just want to mention on capital allocation, strategy remains. We keep priorities -- prioritizing organic investments in technology leadership and building an enterprise go-to-market organization. When it comes to M&A, we are prudent. We may do opportunistic tuck-in acquisitions that would complement our offerings. And then we are targeting a stable to progressive dividend over time. And there, obviously, the Board considers the earnings, the business outlook, our financial position and opportunities. We continue to aim for the -- for a gradual return to our target on free cash flow. As you know, it's 9% to 12% of net sales. And following this, as you saw, the Board recommends a stable dividend of SEK 2.70 for the year.
最後,我只想提一下資本配置,策略依然存在。我們保持優先順序——優先考慮對技術領先地位的有機投資和建立企業進入市場組織。在併購方面,我們持謹慎態度。我們可能會進行機會主義的收購,以補充我們的產品。然後我們的目標是隨著時間的推移獲得穩定到漸進的股息。顯然,董事會會考慮收益、業務前景、我們的財務狀況和機會。我們持續致力於逐步恢復自由現金流目標。如您所知,它佔淨銷售額的 9% 到 12%。接下來,正如您所看到的,董事會建議今年的股息穩定為 2.70 瑞典克朗。
Then maybe on a more personal note, I'd like to thank you, everyone, on the call here for all the great interactions over the years. This is my last of 30 earnings calls as the CFO for Ericsson. It's been a privilege. I look back at an absolutely incredible experience, fantastic people in our company and around us.
然後,也許從更個人的角度來說,我想感謝大家多年來在電話會議上的所有精彩互動。這是我擔任愛立信財務長 30 次財報電話會議中的最後一次。這是一種特權。我回顧了一次絕對令人難以置信的經歷,我們公司和我們周圍都有出色的人。
I'm very pleased to have my successor now Lars Sandström named today, and to leave the CFO baton in his hands feels very good -- very good, experienced hands as I am about to embark on my next exciting chapter in life. And I also want to say I'm very happy to announce, which Börje did recently or previously, Daniel Morris as the new Head of Investor Relations, which is a great addition to the team as well. And finally, I want to say a big thanks to Peter. You have been running the IR ship with a steady hand for the last 10 years in Ericsson. And thanks for being such a dedicated companion and friend here, as we have navigated through the waters here, and I really wish you best of luck in the next chapter, Peter.
我很高興今天任命了我的繼任者拉斯·桑德斯特姆(Lars Sandström),將首席財務官的接力棒交到他手中的感覺非常好——非常好的、經驗豐富的雙手,因為我即將開啟人生中令人興奮的下一個篇章。我還想說,我很高興宣布丹尼爾莫里斯 (Daniel Morris) 擔任新的投資者關係主管,正如 Börje 最近或之前所做的那樣,這對團隊來說也是一個很好的補充。最後,我要向彼得表達衷心的感謝。過去 10 年來,您在愛立信一直穩健地經營 IR 事業。感謝您成為這裡如此忠誠的同伴和朋友,因為我們已經在這裡航行了,我真誠地祝愿您在下一章中一切順利,彼得。
Thank you for that. And with that, back to you, Börje.
謝謝你。說到這裡,回到你身邊,Börje。
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Carl. Yes, 2023 was a challenging year, and we said that in the end of 2022, calling it choppy. It was a historically weak market, and we expect current market uncertainty to continue into 2024. But ultimately, we expect the market to recover to more normalized levels, but that will be over time, but it will be also based on operators' need to invest to manage the rapid data traffic growth and also the continued migration to 5G stand-alone. Capacity will be needed to manage customer expectations to give the quality of service that will be needed or demanded from the consumer.
謝謝,卡爾。是的,2023年是充滿挑戰的一年,我們在2022年年底就這麼說了,稱之為波濤洶湧。這是一個歷史上疲軟的市場,我們預計當前的市場不確定性將持續到2024 年。但最終,我們預計市場將恢復到更正常化的水平,但這將需要一段時間,但也將基於營運商的需求投資以管理資料流量的快速成長以及向 5G 獨立網路的持續遷移。需要有能力來管理客戶的期望,以提供消費者所需或要求的服務品質。
However, as we have said many times, it's really up to our customers to determine the cadence of investments and really not up for us to predict when the market will turn. So in that environment, we remain laser-focused on executing on our strategy to strengthen our leadership in mobile networks, grow our Enterprise business and drive a cultural transformation. We're relentlessly focused on managing elements that's in our control. That includes, of course, the cost side as well as operational efficiency.
然而,正如我們多次說過的那樣,投資節奏實際上是由我們的客戶決定的,而不是由我們來預測市場何時會轉向。因此,在這種環境下,我們仍然專注於執行我們的策略,以加強我們在行動網路領域的領導地位,發展我們的企業業務並推動文化轉型。我們堅持不懈地專注於管理我們控制範圍內的元素。當然,這包括成本方面以及營運效率。
The steps we're taking are designed to help us navigate the near term, allowing us to prudently invest in technology leadership for long-term success. And it's all about ensuring that we're really well positioned when the market ultimately improves and recovers. Our goal is to make Ericsson a more profitable company based on the leading position in mobile infrastructure and the high-growth Enterprise platform business. We remain firmly committed to our long-term EBITA margin target of 15% to 18% and also our cash flow targets. So 2023 was a challenging year, but we took many critical steps in our strategy execution, and we continue doing so in 2024.
我們正在採取的步驟旨在幫助我們應對短期挑戰,使我們能夠審慎地投資於技術領先地位,以獲得長期成功。這一切都是為了確保當市場最終改善和復甦時我們真正處於有利地位。我們的目標是基於行動基礎設施和高成長企業平台業務的領先地位,使愛立信成為一家盈利能力更強的公司。我們仍然堅定地致力於 15% 至 18% 的長期 EBITA 利潤率目標以及現金流目標。因此,2023 年是充滿挑戰的一年,但我們在策略執行中採取了許多關鍵步驟,並將在 2024 年繼續這樣做。
Finally, I'd just like to say thank you to all my colleagues for their hard work in spite of really difficult markets, severe headwinds and challenges. A big thank you to the team.
最後,我想對所有同事表示感謝,感謝他們在市場非常困難、逆風和挑戰的情況下所做的辛勤工作。非常感謝團隊。
With that, I think it's time to move over to Q&A, Peter.
彼得,我想現在是時候進入問答環節了。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Yes, it is. And thank you, Börje, and thank you, Carl, and thank you both for the kind words. So let's return to the process. So it's time for the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)
是的。謝謝你,伯傑,謝謝你,卡爾,謝謝你們兩個的客氣話。那麼讓我們回到這個過程。現在是問答環節了。 (操作員說明)
So let's see here who we have on the first question. Let's see here. I think the first question comes from Aleksander Peterc at Societe Generale.
那麼讓我們來看看第一個問題有誰。我們來看看這裡。我認為第一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Aleksander Peterc。
Aleksander Peterc - Equity Analyst
Aleksander Peterc - Equity Analyst
Thank you, Carl, for your 30 quarters of reports and great work down there. My first question would be on the impact of the North American Open RAN win on your margins, especially in the earlier stages. And the question here is, should we expect the initial margin pressure that you usually call -- so footprint acquisition costs in this case? Or should this not be the case because you don't get the benefit of the vendor lock-in over the long run in this contract? So that will be the first one.
謝謝卡爾,感謝您 30 個季度的報告和所做的出色工作。我的第一個問題是北美 Open RAN 獲勝對你們利潤率的影響,尤其是在早期階段。這裡的問題是,我們是否應該預期您通常所說的初始利潤壓力——在這種情況下是足跡獲取成本?或者情況不應該如此,因為從長遠來看,您無法從這份合約中獲得供應商鎖定的好處?所以這將是第一個。
And the second one, just on India. You saw the shortfall in the fourth quarter, the roughly SEK 4 billion of sales that didn't materialize in Q4. Is that materializing in the first half? And is that going to help your top line in the first half at all?
第二個是關於印度的。您看到了第四季的缺口,大約 40 億瑞典克朗的銷售額在第四季沒有實現。這會在上半年實現嗎?這對你上半場的營收有幫助嗎?
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Thanks, Aleksander.
謝謝,亞歷山大。
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
You can take those.
你可以拿走那些。
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Yes, I can take. So when it comes to India, yes, so we really saw the peak now in the third quarter, and the volumes came down in the fourth quarter. That is true. Nothing specific to talk about delays over quarters, if that's your question. It's -- more importantly, I would say, we've seen an incredible speed in India during 2023. 2024, we expect to be still a higher market, larger market than it was prior to 2023 but, of course, compared to '23 coming down quite a lot. So that's what we have to understand.
是的,我可以接受。所以說到印度,是的,我們確實在第三季度看到了峰值,而第四季度的銷量則有所下降。那是真實的。如果這是你的問題的話,沒有什麼具體談論季度延誤的問題。更重要的是,我想說,2023 年我們在印度看到了令人難以置信的速度。2024 年,我們預計仍將是一個比2023 年之前更高、更大的市場,但當然,與23 年相比下降了很多。這就是我們必須理解的。
When it comes to the AT&T contract, and Börje, you can continue on that one as well. But I just want to say, I mean, obviously, we don't talk about margins in specific contracts. We are extremely pleased with the confidence that AT&T has showed us. It will increase our market share in the North American market. And of course, North America is such a key market for us given our market share, which is already strong and now increasing with this contract as well. We will start to see meaningful revenue in the second half of that contract, and I think that's...
當涉及 AT&T 合約和 Börje 時,您也可以繼續執行該合約。但我只想說,我的意思是,顯然,我們不會談論具體合約中的利潤率。我們對 AT&T 向我們展示的信心感到非常滿意。這將增加我們在北美市場的市佔率。當然,考慮到我們的市場份額,北美對我們來說是一個重要的市場,我們的市場份額已經很強大,而且現在也隨著這份合約而不斷增加。我們將開始在該合約的後半段看到有意義的收入,我認為這是...
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
That's -- you summarized it well.
那就是——你總結得很好。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Thanks, Aleksander. Thank you. So let's move further in the Q&A question. We will move to the next question, which comes from Erik Lindholm-Rojestal at the bank SEB.
謝謝,亞歷山大。謝謝。那麼讓我們進一步討論問答問題。我們將討論下一個問題,該問題來自 SEB 銀行的 Erik Lindholm-Rojestal。
Erik Lindholm-Rojestal - Research Analyst
Erik Lindholm-Rojestal - Research Analyst
So Dell'Oro is expecting a 17% recovery here in North America in 2024, but you have quite cautious short-term commentary here. Can you talk a bit how you expect it recovery to look if you think a recovery will materialize? And is it sort of more tilted towards H2?
因此,Dell'Oro 預計 2024 年北美將復甦 17%,但短期評論相當謹慎。如果您認為復甦將會實現,您能談談您對復甦的預期嗎?它是否更傾向於 H2?
And then perhaps the second question, can you talk a bit about the sort of normalization here in free cash flow into 2024? Do you expect the working capital buildup that you saw in 2023 to fully normalize in '24?
然後也許是第二個問題,您能談談 2024 年自由現金流的正常化嗎?您預計 2023 年的營運資本累積會在 2024 年完全正常化嗎?
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
Should I start with the market maybe? And I think the -- what we are trying to do -- and it's a great question. We ask ourselves the same one, right? What we have said is we are rather taking a planning perspective that the current market conditions will prevail, i.e., we see a challenging market for 2024. That allows us to plan accordingly, focus on taking costs out where appropriate, making sure we're disciplined in our investments and really pare back some of the investment areas we've had.
我應該從市場開始嗎?我認為——我們正在努力做什麼——這是一個很好的問題。我們問自己同樣的問題,對嗎?我們所說的是,我們採取的規劃觀點是,當前的市場狀況將佔上風,即我們看到2024 年的市場充滿挑戰。這使我們能夠做出相應的計劃,專注於在適當的情況下削減成本,確保我們我們嚴格遵守投資紀律,並確實削減了我們已有的一些投資領域。
So we're trying to use this environment to be really prepared on the cost side to be as lean as possible. At the same time, we want to make sure that we invest in technology leadership because, I think, from my perspective, it's all about being well positioned when the market recovers. And that is -- and we've said that so many times, it really depends on how the customer looks at their own cadence of investments. Some of them are going to show. And we see that, for example, in early 5G markets, where 5G investments start to come back. And that's why you've seen growth there for a couple of quarters now. But when that will happen on a more global basis, it's ultimately in the hands of the customers. But when it happens, we want to be really well positioned to take advantage of that turnaround and that recovery.
因此,我們正在嘗試利用這種環境在成本方面做好真正的準備,以盡可能精簡。同時,我們希望確保我們投資於技術領先地位,因為我認為,從我的角度來看,這一切都是為了在市場復甦時處於有利地位。這就是——我們已經說過很多次了,這實際上取決於客戶如何看待自己的投資節奏。其中一些將要展示。例如,我們看到在早期 5G 市場中,5G 投資開始回歸。這就是為什麼你現在已經看到那裡幾個季度的成長。但當這種情況在全球發生時,最終還是掌握在客戶手中。但當這種情況發生時,我們希望能夠真正處於有利位置,以利用這種轉變和復甦。
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Thanks, Börje. If I take your cash flow question then, Erik, so we are going for the 9% to 12% free cash flow metric that we have or target. Just as with the EBITA target, we are not saying when. We're not committing to a certain time period, but we have extreme cash flow focus in the company. And if you look at the fundamentals, we built up inventory due to the component shortage situation earlier. Of course, that is trading out more and more as we deliver to customers.
謝謝,伯傑。艾瑞克,如果我回答你的現金流問題,那麼我們將採用我們擁有或目標的 9% 到 12% 的自由現金流指標。正如 EBITA 目標一樣,我們沒有說明具體時間。我們不承諾特定的時間段,但我們非常關注公司的現金流。如果你看看基本面,我們早些時候由於元件短缺的情況而建立了庫存。當然,隨著我們向客戶交付產品,這種交易會越來越多。
And secondly, we had a market mix shift from the U.S. and other markets, front-runner markets with shorter cycles to the longer cycles in India. Assuming that, that mix swings back to some extent, and we already saw it in the fourth quarter with India coming down, then we will release working capital, and that's, of course, benefiting our free cash flow. So we are going for this with a determination as usual and aiming for the long term 9% to 12%.
其次,我們的市場結構從美國和其他市場、週期較短的領跑者市場轉向週期較長的印度市場。假設這種組合在某種程度上有所回升,而且我們已經在第四季度看到印度經濟下滑,那麼我們將釋放營運資本,這當然有利於我們的自由現金流。因此,我們將像往常一樣堅定地實現這一目標,長期目標是 9% 到 12%。
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
I think only adding the other area that actually affects working capital is, call it, geopolitical resiliency. So we have tried to diversify our supply chain in total. And that's been a rather costly exercise, but it's allowed us to actually ship also when we had the supply disturbances. I would say, for other reasons than geopolitics, but it's kind of the whole notion that we need to have a geopolitical resiliency has actually impacted working capital. Those increases will not happen. We've kind of built it in now. So we're in a much more stable position. But that, of course, have been a bit of a burden on cash flow.
我認為,只有另一個添加實際影響營運資本的領域,即地緣政治彈性。因此,我們嘗試使我們的供應鏈整體多元化。這是一項相當昂貴的做法,但它使我們能夠在供應中斷時也能實際出貨。我想說,出於地緣政治以外的其他原因,但我們需要擁有地緣政治彈性的整個觀念實際上影響了營運資本。這些增加不會發生。我們現在已經內建了它。所以我們的處境更加穩定。但這當然對現金流造成了一些負擔。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Thanks, Börje. And thanks, Erik, for those 2 questions. We will then move to the next question, and then we have the question from Francois Bouvignies from UBS.
謝謝,伯傑。謝謝埃里克提出的兩個問題。然後我們將進入下一個問題,然後我們有來自瑞銀集團的弗朗索瓦·布維尼(Francois Bouvignies)提出的問題。
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst
So I have 2 quick questions. The first one is on the software mix that impacted the quarter. Obviously, a good impact on margins. And I was looking at your reporting, you said that you had 38% of revenues from hardware, 22% in 2023, which indeed is higher than the last 3 years of reports where hardware was more than 40% of revenue. So it seems that 2023 was a bit more favorable in terms of mix, software versus hardware, versus the last 3 years.
我有兩個簡單的問題。第一個是影響本季的軟體組合。顯然,這對利潤率產生了良好的影響。我看了你的報告,你說你的收入有 38% 來自硬件,到 2023 年將達到 22%,這確實高於過去 3 年的報告,當時硬體佔收入的 40% 以上。因此,與過去 3 年相比,2023 年在混合、軟體與硬體方面似乎更有利一些。
But then I was looking back like beyond -- or before the last 3 years, so the last 10 years. And I was surprised to see that the hardware percentage and software percentage is actually in line with what you reported in 2023. And I was always thinking that your business would be more software and service intensive as we move forward because you always said that software and -- it's more important in the coming technologies. So how should we think about the mix in 2024, if -- or maybe even longer term because I don't see much change in the last 10 years, and that would be very interesting to know how we should think about that or any fundamentals behind?
但後來我回顧過去──或者說過去三年之前,也就是過去十年。我很驚訝地發現,硬體百分比和軟體百分比實際上與您在2023 年報告的情況一致。而且我一直認為,隨著我們的發展,您的業務將更加軟體和服務密集型,因為您總是說軟體和——這在未來的技術中更為重要。因此,我們應該如何考慮 2024 年的組合,如果——或者甚至更長期,因為我認為過去 10 年沒有太大變化,了解我們應該如何考慮這一點或任何基本面將是非常有趣的在後面?
And the second one -- second question, if I may, is on Vonage. I mean you mentioned this contract loss that impacted the quarter. Can you provide a bit more color about what's going on here? How can you reassure about the offering of Vonage because 2 percentage growth is well below what you expected originally? So I was wondering if there is anything you can provide in terms of color here.
第二個問題-第二個問題,如果可以的話,是關於 Vonage 的。我的意思是您提到了影響本季的合約損失。你能提供更多關於這裡發生的事情的資訊嗎?由於 2% 的成長率遠低於您最初的預期,您如何對 Vonage 的發行感到放心?所以我想知道您是否可以在這裡提供顏色方面的任何資訊。
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
I think on the -- if we start a bit on the software mix. So what you see, depending on where you are in the cycle, you will have more hardware sales and, thereby, less software. And that's really what you see in 2023. It was a rather sharp reduction in hardware volumes that's actually impacting the mix more than kind of any structural change. But that has been the case in almost all, or it has been the case in previous cycles as well. So you see this shifting over time depending on where you are on rollouts.
我認為,如果我們開始在軟體組合上進行一些改進。所以你會看到,根據你所處的周期,你將獲得更多的硬體銷售,從而減少軟體銷售。這確實是你在 2023 年看到的情況。硬體數量的急劇減少實際上對組合的影響比任何結構性變化都大。但幾乎所有周期都是如此,或者說在之前的周期中也是如此。因此,您會看到這種情況隨著時間的推移而變化,具體取決於您的部署位置。
And remember, it's still only 1 in 3 or maybe 1 in 4 even sites that are upgraded to 5G mid-band, and that's actually ultimately going to require hardware. So it's a bit tricky to put exactly a number. But with what you're going to see with the separation of hardware and software going forward, you will see the hardware portion come down. It's not going to be -- happen from 1 quarter to the next or a year to the next. But this is over a period of time as the new technology stack will be implemented, making us more focused towards the software side basically.
請記住,仍然只有三分之一甚至四分之一的站點升級到 5G 中頻段,而這實際上最終需要硬體。所以要準確地輸入一個數字有點棘手。但是,隨著硬體和軟體分離的發展,您將看到硬體部分的下降。它不會——從一個季度到下一個季度或到下一年發生。但這是一段時間後的事情,因為新的技術堆疊將被實施,這使得我們基本上更加關注軟體方面。
So I would say that longer term, the portion of software is going to increase, and the portion of hardware is going to decrease for that reason more than anything else.
所以我想說,從長遠來看,軟體的部分將會增加,而硬體的部分將會減少,因此比其他任何因素都更重要。
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
And I complement that also, of course, as you said, Börje, in build-out phases, of course, hardware grows as well. And that is, of course, a good thing because that has to do with building footprint with the operators, shipping our hardware, installing it in the field. And then, of course, software comes on top of that installed base. So we are also happy, of course, with the high hardware sales in these phases. So then no question. And also, I would say, over the years, the margin delta between software and hardware has also been reduced because now we have a very competitive hardware portfolio as well. So we should also mention that.
當然,正如您所說,Börje,在擴建階段,硬體也會成長,我對此也進行了補充。當然,這是一件好事,因為這與運營商的佔地面積、運輸我們的硬體、在現場安裝有關。當然,軟體是建立在已安裝基礎上的。當然,我們也對這些階段的高硬體銷售感到高興。那麼沒問題了。而且,我想說,多年來,軟體和硬體之間的利潤增量也有所減少,因為現在我們也擁有非常有競爭力的硬體產品組合。所以我們也應該要提到這一點。
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
No, we should say that. And that's actually a lot of investments...
不,我們應該這麼說。這其實是很多投資......
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst
(inaudible) specifically?
(聽不清楚)具體是?
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
A lot of the investments we did in R&D, if you go back a few years, it was actually to make sure we had a very -- or less sensitivity to the mix between hardware and software. So -- and that's why when the increased hardware portion that you saw the last few years actually could still generate a very solid gross profit.
如果你回顧幾年,我們在研發方面所做的許多投資實際上是為了確保我們對硬體和軟體之間的混合有非常或較低的敏感度。因此,這就是為什麼過去幾年你看到的硬體部分的增加實際上仍然可以產生非常可觀的毛利。
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Exactly. And you also...
確切地。和你也是...
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst
And now 2024 directionally? Directionally, 2024, is it -- what visibility do you have? Is it like more hardware or more software year based on your activity and orders?
現在2024年的方向是什麼?就方向而言,2024 年,您的能見度如何?根據您的活動和訂單,是更多的硬體還是更多的軟體?
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
I would say the longer-term trend is towards more software, as Börje said, given how the networks will be built and so on. 2024, we'll have to see how it plays out.
我想說,正如 Börje 所說,考慮到網路的建構方式等,長期趨勢是使用更多軟體。 2024 年,我們將拭目以待。
But maybe to mention one aspect that could play in, and that's the inventory buffering we saw in North America. And as you know, that's one of the reasons why we have shipped less hardware also in 2023 is that the carriers in the U.S. have depleted their buffer inventory of radio equipment. Now we have reached, of course, a level which we believe is the normalized inventory level. So that could bode well for additional hardware deliveries. But I think it's fair to say that the volume decline we see is quite a lot in hardware side, of course.
但也許要提到一個可能發揮作用的方面,那就是我們在北美看到的庫存緩衝。如您所知,這也是我們 2023 年硬體出貨量減少的原因之一,因為美國營運商已經耗盡了無線電設備的緩衝庫存。當然,現在我們已經達到了我們認為正常庫存水準的水準。因此,這對於額外的硬體交付來說可能是個好兆頭。但我認為可以公平地說,我們看到的銷量下降是在硬體方面相當多。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
And then you had a question, Francois, about the development in Vonage. Maybe, Börje...
Francois,然後你有一個關於 Vonage 開發的問題。也許吧,伯傑…
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
The Vonage, it's -- the mentioned contract is actually a very low-margin contract. So from a profitability point of view, less impact.
Vonage,它——提到的合約實際上是一份利潤率非常低的合約。所以從獲利角度來看,影響較小。
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst
Any reason why, I mean, a contract loss, I mean, just to give color? And do you still expect to grow double-digit percentage after this normalization of contract loss or...
我的意思是,合約損失有什麼原因,我的意思是,只是為了增添色彩?在合約損失正常化之後,您是否仍期望實現兩位數的成長,或者…
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
No, our -- I mean we have to come back on thinking about what is the rationale behind Vonage, what is it we are trying to do. We're -- of course, we have an existing business that we need to run, which is the CPaaS, UCaaS, CCaaS business, that needs to develop as well. And -- but we also have said that we want to prioritize higher-margin product offerings within that suite.
不,我的意思是我們必須回頭思考 Vonage 背後的基本原理是什麼,我們正在嘗試做什麼。當然,我們有一項需要營運的現有業務,即 CPaaS、UCaaS、CCaaS 業務,也需要發展。而且 - 但我們也說過,我們希望優先考慮該套件中利潤率較高的產品。
But the real strategic area that we're actually working on is to develop the market for network APIs and with the ability to expose the capabilities of the network in a new way. That is where we are 100% focused on while trying to maintain the existing business. This was one where, of course, it had an impact on the sales number, but we didn't feel it was strategic for us, and therefore, that didn't -- was not a critical contract for the success of the business, but it did impact top line.
但我們實際上正在研究的真正策略領域是開發網路 API 市場,並能夠以新的方式公開網路的功能。這就是我們在努力維持現有業務的同時百分之百專注的地方。當然,這對銷售數字有影響,但我們認為這對我們來說沒有戰略意義,因此,這不是業務成功的關鍵合同,但這確實影響了營收。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Thanks, Börje. And thanks, Francois, for those questions. So we'll move further in the Q&A session. And we have the next question from Andreas Joelsson at Carnagie.
謝謝,伯傑。謝謝弗朗索瓦提出這些問題。因此,我們將在問答環節進一步推進。卡納基的安德烈亞斯·喬爾森 (Andreas Joelsson) 提出了下一個問題。
Andreas Joelsson - Research Analyst
Andreas Joelsson - Research Analyst
Just a follow-up on the overall market and maybe a little bit more long term. We all know 5G importance for society as such and so on. But why do you feel -- or what is your view on why especially the U.S. operators are a little bit more cautious now? What do they need to see in order to become a little bit more positive in putting investments into this?
只是整個市場的後續行動,也許是更長期的行動。我們都知道 5G 對社會的重要性等等。但您為什麼感覺——或者您對為什麼美國運營商現在變得更加謹慎有何看法?他們需要看到什麼才能更積極地投資?
And secondly, on the AT&T contract, also more long term beyond 2024, how do you see that ramping up? And if you could say something about the visibility you have in that particular contract over time?
其次,對於 AT&T 合同,也是 2024 年後更長期的合同,您如何看待這種增長?您能否談談隨著時間的推移您在該特定合約中的可見性?
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Börje?
伯耶?
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
So if we start with the market, without singling out any operators because they are our customers, we work very closely with them. But if you look at mobile infrastructure, what is a bit unique with the mobile infrastructure is that it's not a cutoff point. You have it, or you don't have it. It's actually a degrading quality. And as -- that allows you, in a way, as an operator to pare back investments for a period of time. Traffic continues to grow, the underlying traffic growth, 20%, 30% faster, sometimes when you have fixed wireless access. So the -- in a way, the capacity demand continues. Then you can say, okay, I can degrade performance a bit. I can actually -- I may not need the capacity short term, so you can save investments. But ultimately, you need the capacity.
因此,如果我們從市場入手,不單獨挑選任何營運商,因為他們是我們的客戶,我們會與他們密切合作。但如果你看看行動基礎設施,你會發現行動基礎設施的獨特之處在於它不是一個分界點。你擁有它,或者你沒有它。這其實是一種有辱人格的品質。在某種程度上,這允許您作為運營商在一段時間內削減投資。流量持續成長,底層流量成長速度快了 20%、30%,有時當你有固定無線存取。因此,在某種程度上,容量需求仍在持續。然後你可以說,好吧,我可以稍微降低效能。我實際上可以--我可能短期內不需要該容量,因此您可以節省投資。但最終,您需要能力。
So what will then be the trigger for that? It will probably be competition offering a better service. It may be a front-runner in the market that actually drives the others, therefore, to invest. It may be new type of use cases that come up that demands more bandwidth, whether that is XR applications, whether it's new type of streaming services, new type of social media, I don't know. But we know when you get those new type of use cases into the network, it actually drives the need to invest.
那麼,什麼會成為觸發因素呢?這可能是提供更好服務的競爭。因此,它可能是市場上的領導者,真正推動其他人進行投資。可能會出現需要更多頻寬的新型用例,無論是 XR 應用程式、新型串流媒體服務還是新型社交媒體,我都不知道。但我們知道,當您將這些新型用例引入網路時,它實際上會推動投資需求。
And lastly, I would say for the world to really benefit from 5G, we need to migrate to 5G stand-alone. And there are, if you look across the world, very few 5G stand-alone networks built out. Really, where it's a front-runner is China. In China, you start to see enterprise applications coming on top of the 5G network that we are not seeing in the rest of the world yet for the simple reason the infrastructure is not built out.
最後,我想說,為了讓世界真正受益於 5G,我們需要遷移到獨立的 5G。放眼全球,建成的 5G 獨立網路非常少。確實,領先者是中國。在中國,您開始看到企業應用程式建立在 5G 網路之上,而這在世界其他地方還沒有看到,原因很簡單,基礎設施尚未建成。
So when you look at this, when will it exactly be? I don't know, to be honest. It's in the hands of the customers when they make the strategic decision to say, okay, we need this to offer the services, to offer the capabilities to generate new type of revenues for the network. And I think that's going to come. The ultimate recovery will come, but it's just in the hands of the customers.
那麼當你看到這個時,具體會是什麼時候呢?老實說,我不知道。當客戶做出策略決策時,它就掌握在客戶手中,他們說,好吧,我們需要它來提供服務,提供為網路創造新型收入的能力。我認為這將會到來。最終的復甦將會到來,但這只是掌握在客戶手中。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
And your second question around AT&T long term, how that will be developed.
你的第二個問題是關於 AT&T 的長期發展,也就是如何發展。
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
No, I think we will have to come back to that. We have signed the agreement. We are very pleased with that. And we are now starting to ramp up the preparation for that. It will be visible in the second half, but exactly how it plays out, I would probably rather report when it happens on that. But it's a breakthrough contract. It's historic in nature also from a strategic point of view.
不,我認為我們必須回到這一點。我們已經簽署了協議。我們對此感到非常高興。我們現在開始加緊準備。這將在下半場可見,但具體如何進行,我可能更願意在它發生時進行報告。但這是一份突破性的合約。從戰略角度來看,這本質上也是歷史性的。
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
But we have -- we can say we have great visibility that it's going to take some time to ramp up the contract. That's going to happen, as Carl said, in the second half of this year. But then we have visibility on how that's going to look like going forward. But let's come back to that.
但我們可以說,我們非常清楚需要一些時間來增加合約。正如卡爾所說,這將在今年下半年發生。但隨後我們就可以了解未來的發展。但讓我們回到這一點。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Thanks, Börje and Carl. And we lost him, so we'll move to the next question. Good morning, [Joseph Soo] from Barclays.
謝謝,伯杰和卡爾。我們失去了他,所以我們將進入下一個問題。早安,巴克萊銀行的[Joseph Soo]。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Thank you, Carl and Peter, best of luck to your future endeavors. And I have a few questions, and I'll go one at a time. And the first one is really on India. And what is your expected normalized revenue level in '24 and going forward? And is it sensible to assume it goes back to, say, the 2022 level plus your market share gain with Jio for 5G? Or do you see some structural uplift in the overall market size? That's my first question.
謝謝你們,卡爾和彼得,祝福你們未來一切順利。我有幾個問題,我會一次一個回答。第一個確實是關於印度的。您預計 24 年及未來的正常收入水準為何?假設它回到 2022 年的水平加上 Jio 為 5G 帶來的市佔率成長,是否明智?或者您看到整體市場規模出現一些結構性提升?這是我的第一個問題。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Carl?
卡爾?
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Yes, it's, of course, in the hands of the operators, how much they invest. But I think it's fair to assume that a normalized level is higher than pre-5G. 2023 was a record year, and it's coming down, as we said, in 2024. But we would still expect a higher volume than the 2022 levels. Again, it's up to operators how much they want to invest, obviously.
是的,當然,投資多少取決於營運商的手中。但我認為可以公平地假設標準化水平高於 5G 之前的水平。 2023 年是創紀錄的一年,正如我們所說,2024 年這一數字將會下降。但我們仍預計銷量將高於 2022 年的水平。同樣,顯然,這取決於運營商想要投資多少。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
And your second question, [Joseph]?
你的第二個問題,[約瑟夫]?
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Yes. The second question is about the ramp-up for AT&T. And shall we expect any revenue from AT&T in the first half of '24 at any kind of material level? And also just regarding that, do you need to rehire in North America to execute the contract? Because obviously, you had a savings program where you had a huge headcount reduction in North America last year. And do you need to hire some of those people back for the new contracts?
是的。第二個問題是關於 AT&T 的擴張。我們是否應該期望 AT&T 在 2024 年上半年能獲得任何實質收入?另外,您是否需要在北美重新僱用才能執行合約?因為顯然,您有一項儲蓄計劃,去年在北美大幅裁員。您是否需要重新僱用其中一些人來簽訂新合約?
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
We will -- we don't expect material revenue in the first half. So that's why we really point that out. That is to be expected in the second half.
我們預計上半年不會有實質收入。這就是我們真正指出這一點的原因。這是下半年的期待。
Resources, rehiring in North America, elsewhere, Börje, do you want to take that?
資源,在北美或其他地方重新招聘,Börje,你想接受嗎?
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
We've also changed the structure. So we have less service engineers basically in-house. So we will rely more on third party for that. So I don't expect material rehirings to deliver on this contract.
我們也改變了結構。所以我們基本上內部的服務工程師較少。因此,我們將更依賴第三方。因此,我預計不會有實質的重新招聘來履行這份合約。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Thanks, Börje. And thanks, [Joseph]. We will move to the next question, and the next question is from Jakob Bluestone at BNP Paribas Exane.
謝謝,伯傑。謝謝,[約瑟夫]。我們將進入下一個問題,下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Jakob Bluestone。
Jakob Bluestone - Research Analyst
Jakob Bluestone - Research Analyst
I have 2, please. Firstly, on the AT&T contract, we heard from Nokia that price was a big part of the reason that lost the contract. I'd just be interested and hear from your point of view, to what extent do you see these types of O-RAN contracts as being deflationary overall?
我有2個,拜託。首先,關於AT&T合同,我們從諾基亞那裡得知,價格是失去合約的一個重要原因。我只是感興趣並聽聽您的觀點,您認為這些類型的 O-RAN 合約總體上在多大程度上具有通縮作用?
And then just secondly, staying with the AT&T contract, you mentioned rightly that it's a historic contract. I'd just be interested in hearing, are you seeing more demand for these types of contracts since you announced it? So is there any sort of read-across to other contract wins?
其次,保留 AT&T 合同,您正確地提到這是一份歷史性合約。我只是想知道,自從您宣布此類合約以來,您是否看到了對此類合約的更多需求?那麼是否有任何形式的其他合約勝利的解讀?
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Börje?
伯傑?
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
It's always interested when competitors apparently know everything. So you can question how much they know sometimes, to be honest. But if you look at the contract like the one we're talking about, I think it's -- where -- how does this actually work? It's all about looking at the total CapEx, OpEx envelope and actually optimizing that total cost. So you make sure that you can invest in technology in order to actually increase the portion of that cost envelope that goes into revenue-generating equipment.
當競爭對手顯然無所不知時,它總是很感興趣。所以說實話,你有時可以質疑他們知道多少。但如果你像我們正在討論的那樣看待合同,我認為它實際上是如何運作的?這一切都是為了查看總資本支出、營運支出範圍並實際優化總成本。因此,您要確保可以投資技術,以實際增加成本包絡中用於創收設備的部分。
And that is what this is all about. So it's about putting a technology in place that allows a much more efficient, call it, rollout and operation of that network, and that's what we're doing together with AT&T. So the substantial benefit here is actually that it allows, within the CapEx envelope, a faster rollout, but that is really created by leveraging new technologies. So we're putting new energy savings features in place, multi-band radios in place, standardized sites in place, et cetera. All of those contribute to make as much of the capital go into productive equipment as humanly possible. That's really our competitive advantage, and that's why that contract is so important.
這就是這一切的意義。因此,關鍵是要採用一種技術,使該網路的部署和營運更加高效,這就是我們與 AT&T 合作所做的事情。因此,這裡的實質好處實際上是,它允許在資本支出範圍內更快地推出,但這實際上是透過利用新技術創造的。因此,我們正在部署新的節能功能、多頻段無線電、標準化站點等等。所有這些都有助於使盡可能多的資本投入生產設備。這確實是我們的競爭優勢,也是該合約如此重要的原因。
Then that's the reality, and that's the fact. That's why it's value creating for us, but it's also value creating for our customers. So this is a way, I think, for the future that's going to show to be more interesting. I think this -- it's hard to say. I mean we have a lot of interest to look at similar type of solutions for the future. But that's -- we'll see. It's too early to say that that's going to be a lot of contracts coming, but we're seeing a great interest in exploring similar type of solutions for the simple reason that it actually reduces the nonstrategic spend.
那麼這就是現實,這就是事實。這就是為什麼它為我們創造價值,也為我們的客戶創造價值。所以我認為,這是一種讓未來變得更加有趣的方式。我認為這很難說。我的意思是,我們對未來尋找類似類型的解決方案非常感興趣。但這是——我們拭目以待。現在說將會有大量合約到來還為時過早,但我們看到人們對探索類似類型的解決方案非常感興趣,原因很簡單,它實際上減少了非戰略支出。
And you now think about the normal network, right? It's kind of a lot that goes into, I call it, concrete and towers, right? But the reality is it's in passive equipment. It's in truck rolls going back and forth to sites. It's in energy costs, et cetera. All of that, we like to put into active equipment instead, and that's what we're doing in this contract. I think it's a model for the future and can create a big potential for us.
現在你想想正常的網路吧?我稱之為混凝土和塔樓,涉及很多東西,對吧?但現實是它是在被動設備中。它是在來回站點的卡車滾滾中進行的。這是能源成本等等。所有這些,我們都喜歡投入主動設備中,這就是我們在這份合約中所做的事情。我認為這是未來的典範,可以為我們創造巨大的潛力。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Thanks, Börje. And thanks, Jakob. We'll move to the next question, which comes from Sandeep Deshpande at JPMorgan.
謝謝,伯傑。謝謝,雅各。我們將討論下一個問題,該問題由摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande 提出。
Sandeep Sudhir Deshpande - Research Analyst
Sandeep Sudhir Deshpande - Research Analyst
My question, I mean, in your forward-looking statements, you've given the guidance of Dell'Oro for the full year, and Dell'Oro seems to have growth for the U.S. market this year, in FY '24. Is that your view on the U.S. market given where the starting point is at this point? And if that is not, would there not be further risk to the top line into '24?
我的問題是,在你們的前瞻性陳述中,你們給了 Dell'Oro 全年的指導,而 Dell'Oro 今年(24 財年)的美國市場似乎有所成長。鑑於目前的起點,這是您對美國市場的看法嗎?如果不是這樣,進入 24 年收入是否會面臨進一步的風險?
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Yes. So we do believe that there is a good chance that North American investments will start. But we are careful in saying here that it's in the hands of the operators. We don't want to be precise in putting any commitments for that out there. We also see Dell'Oro's expectation that North America from -- coming from a record high level in 2022, down to probably unsustainably low level of investment in '23, so increases growth again in 2024. And we believe that that's a reasonable expectation.
是的。因此,我們確實相信北美投資很有可能啟動。但我們在這裡謹慎地說,它掌握在營運商手中。我們不想準確地做出任何承諾。我們也看到Dell'Oro 的預期,北美地區的投資將從2022 年創紀錄的高水準下降到23 年可能不可持續的低水平,因此2024 年將再次增加成長。我們認為這是一個合理的預期。
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
Yes. I would just echo that. And -- but I think what we're trying to do is also to make sure that we plan for a challenging market. I think that's the prudent way to plan our costs on our side to make sure that we're as lean as possible. And then when the market recovers, we have our technology investments, so we are at the leading edge there, combined with a very efficient cost structure because when that recovery comes, whether that's in the beginning of '24, the end of '24 and '25, but we're at least well positioned when it comes. And that's really what we're here to do because then we can succeed longer term.
是的。我只是重複這一點。而且 - 但我認為我們正在努力做的也是確保我們為充滿挑戰的市場做好計劃。我認為這是我們這邊計劃成本的謹慎方法,以確保我們盡可能精簡。然後,當市場復甦時,我們有技術投資,因此我們處於領先地位,再加上非常有效的成本結構,因為當復甦到來時,無論是在 24 年初、24 年底還是'25,但當它到來時我們至少處於有利位置。這正是我們來這裡的目的,因為這樣我們才能長期成功。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Thanks, Börje. So we are moving now to the last question for this session. And that one is from Sébastien Sztabowicz from Kepler Cheuvreux.
謝謝,伯傑。我們現在討論本次會議的最後一個問題。那個來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Sébastien Sztabowicz。
Sébastien Sztabowicz - Head of Tech - Equipment Research
Sébastien Sztabowicz - Head of Tech - Equipment Research
On the gross margin in Networks, you've seen a quite nice step-up, thanks to positive mix in Q4. How do we should think about the gross margin in Networks moving into 2024? What are the puts and takes for the coming quarters there?
在網路業務的毛利率方面,由於第四季度的積極組合,您已經看到了相當不錯的提升。進入 2024 年,我們該如何看待網路業務的毛利率?未來幾季的看漲期權和看跌期權是什麼?
And the second one, on the Cloud Software and Services, you have strongly recovered in the fourth quarter. We know there is a strong seasonality in this business, but looking at 2024 and beyond, where do you see your EBITA margin moving in Cloud Software and Services? Do you have any indication of the trend there?
第二個,在雲端軟體和服務方面,您在第四季度強勁復甦。我們知道該業務存在很強的季節性,但展望 2024 年及以後,您認為雲端軟體和服務的 EBITA 利潤率將如何變化?您有任何跡象表明那裡的趨勢嗎?
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Yes. Thanks, Sébastien. Well, as you know, we haven't issued any particular profitability guidance for Cloud Software and Services. We are on a turnaround journey. I think 2023 shows significant progress there, and we delivered SEK 1.7 billion EBITA for the full year. We continue there with actions. It's about commercial discipline. It's about automating to take cost out of service delivery basically and also ensuring that we exit from subscale parts of portfolio, if any, and manage the portfolio in an optimized way as possible. So that will continue.
是的。謝謝,塞巴斯蒂安。嗯,如您所知,我們尚未發布任何針對雲端軟體和服務的特定獲利能力指南。我們正踏上扭轉的旅程。我認為 2023 年這方面取得了重大進展,我們全年實現了 17 億瑞典克朗的 EBITA。我們繼續採取行動。這是關於商業紀律的。它是關於自動化,從根本上降低服務交付成本,並確保我們退出投資組合的小規模部分(如果有),並盡可能以優化的方式管理投資組合。所以這將繼續下去。
Then of course, we keep on investing in this business. It's long-term, very promising area. Börje mentioned before the need for operators to come into 5G core as well as stand-alone of course, and that sits in this segment. So I think that gives a good opportunity for the future as well as that starts to happen as a strong trend.
當然,我們會繼續投資這項業務。這是一個長期的、非常有前途的領域。 Börje 之前提到過,營運商需要進入 5G 核心網以及獨立網,這就是這個細分市場。所以我認為這為未來提供了一個很好的機會,並且開始成為一個強勁的趨勢。
Then you asked about the Networks gross margin. Yes, good outcome in the fourth quarter. As you saw, we are guiding for the first quarter between 39% and 41%. How the rest of the year plays out has a lot to do with the big macro picture that we talk about, namely how will markets behave now, and we are cautious there. We talk about the continued challenges. Depending on the previous question, what happens in North America, of course, we will see different outcomes on the gross margin as well and top line in the Networks. So I think that's probably what we can say at this stage.
然後您詢問了網絡毛利率。是的,第四季的結果不錯。正如您所看到的,我們預計第一季的成長率將在 39% 到 41% 之間。今年剩餘時間的表現與我們談論的宏觀大局有很大關係,即市場現在將如何表現,我們對此持謹慎態度。我們談論持續的挑戰。當然,根據上一個問題,北美會發生什麼,我們也會看到毛利率和網路收入的不同結果。所以我認為這可能就是我們現階段可以說的。
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
I think it's also fair to say that what we -- you know our focus on gross margin is being one of the key drivers because what I think -- it does a couple of things. It keeps us focused on commercial discipline. But at the same time, it drives our product development because if we can invest in technology that drives down our cost to deliver and serve customers, it helps the gross profit. So for us, the gross margin has been critical. And that's something that we have invested quite a lot in the last few years, and we continue to do.
我認為公平地說,我們對毛利率的關注是關鍵驅動因素之一,因為我認為它做了幾件事。它讓我們專注於商業紀律。但同時,它推動了我們的產品開發,因為如果我們能夠投資技術來降低交付和服務客戶的成本,那麼它有助於提高毛利。因此對我們來說,毛利率至關重要。過去幾年我們在這方面投入了大量資金,並將繼續這樣做。
Then exactly how, as Carl said, the gross margin develops depends on that mix between products and mix between markets and mix between different parts of the company. So I -- in the same way as trying to predict the future, it's easy to have an opinion. It's just hard to be right. I think what we need to do here is to really plan for how do we put ourselves in the best possible position when we have a more, call it, rational or more normal market environment that we expect will come. So it's all about putting ourselves at the best possible competitive position at that point in time.
那麼,正如卡爾所說,毛利率究竟如何發展取決於產品之間的組合、市場之間的組合以及公司不同部門之間的組合。所以我——就像試圖預測未來一樣,很容易有意見。很難做到正確。我認為我們需要做的是真正規劃當我們預期將會出現一個更理性或更正常的市場環境時,我們如何讓自己處於最佳位置。因此,這一切都是為了讓我們在那個時間點處於最佳的競爭地位。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Thanks, Börje. Thanks, Carl, and thanks, Sébastien. And thank you all. And this will actually conclude my 31st and last earnings call here at Ericsson. And it has been sort of 10 fantastic years here at Ericsson. And it's been a real pleasure working together with all my outstanding colleagues here at Ericsson, especially you, Börje and Carl and the whole IR team. But also interacting with everybody following Ericsson, it has been a true privilege. So again, a really big thank you to you all.
謝謝,伯傑。謝謝卡爾,謝謝塞巴斯蒂安。謝謝大家。這實際上將結束我在愛立信舉行的第 31 次也是最後一次財報電話會議。在愛立信度過了美好的十年。與我在愛立信的所有傑出同事,特別是您、Börje 和 Carl 以及整個 IR 團隊一起工作,我感到非常愉快。而且能夠與愛立信關注的每個人互動,這真是一種榮幸。再次非常感謝大家。
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
E. Borje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director
Thank you.
謝謝。
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR
Thank you.
謝謝。
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions
Thanks all.
謝謝大家。