Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ERIC) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to this call covering Ericsson's second quarter 2023. With me today, as usual, I have our President and CEO, Börje Ekholm; and our CFO, Carl Mellander.

大家好，歡迎參加這次關於愛立信 2023 年第二季度的電話會議。今天和往常一樣，和我在一起的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Börje Ekholm；以及我們的首席財務官卡爾·梅蘭德。

As usual, we will start this with a presentation and end with a Q&A session. And then in order to ask questions, you need to join the conference by phone, remember that. Details can be found in today's press release and on our website, ericsson.com/investors. And please advise that today's conference is recorded.

像往常一樣，我們將以演示開始並以問答環節結束。然後為了提問，您需要通過電話加入會議，請記住這一點。詳細信息請參閱今天的新聞稿和我們的網站 ericsson.com/investors。請告知今天的會議已錄製。

But before handing over to Börje and Carl, I would like to read the following: during today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our current expectations and certain planning assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially due to factors mentioned in today's press release and discussed in this conference call. We encourage you to read about these risks and uncertainties in the earnings report as well as in the annual report.

但在交給 Börje 和 Carl 之前，我想閱讀以下內容：在今天的演示中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於我們當前的預期和某些計劃假設，這些假設存在風險和不確定性。由於今天的新聞稿中提到的以及本次電話會議中討論的因素，實際結果可能會存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您在收益報告和年度報告中閱讀有關這些風險和不確定性的信息。

With that said, I would like to leave the word to you, Börje. So please, Börje.

話雖如此，我想把話留給你，Börje。所以拜託，Börje。

Thank you, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Big thank you all for joining us for this second quarter report. I'm happy to present a quarter where we continued to execute on our strategy to build a stronger and more profitable Ericsson for the long term. Based on our strategy and our strong position, we're able to deliver a solid quarter despite challenging market conditions. We see a changed business mix with North America representing one of the lowest shares we've seen in many years. But on the other hand, we see India growing very, very fast.

謝謝你，彼得，大家早上好。非常感謝大家加入我們的第二季度報告。我很高興向大家介紹一個季度，我們繼續執行我們的戰略，從長遠來看，打造一個更強大、利潤更高的愛立信。基於我們的戰略和強大的地位，儘管市場條件充滿挑戰，我們仍然能夠實現穩定的季度業績。我們看到業務結構發生了變化，北美市場的份額是多年來所見的最低水平之一。但另一方面，我們看到印度的增長非常非常快。

Our strategy, as you all know, is focused on 3 priorities: the first one to bolster our leadership in mobile networks; second is to grow our Enterprise business; and thirdly, drive a cultural transformation of the company.

眾所周知，我們的戰略重點關註三個優先事項：第一個是鞏固我們在移動網絡領域的領導地位；第二個是鞏固我們在移動網絡領域的領導地位。第二是發展我們的企業業務；第三，推動公司文化轉型。

Mobile networks continues to be the bedrock of Ericsson. With about half of the world's 5G traffic outside of China carried through our radios, we are a leader in the market, And we remain fully focused on continuing to strengthen this leadership position.

移動網絡仍然是愛立信的基石。中國以外世界上大約一半的 5G 流量是通過我們的無線電傳輸的，我們是市場的領導者，並且我們仍然完全專注於繼續加強這一領導地位。

In parallel, we're using our expertise in advanced cellular networks to expand into the fast-growing enterprise market and that will substantially increase our addressable market, diversify our portfolio and puts us on a higher growth trajectory.

與此同時，我們正在利用我們在先進蜂窩網絡方面的專業知識擴展到快速增長的企業市場，這將大大增加我們的潛在市場，使我們的產品組合多樣化，並使我們走上更高的增長軌道。

In our platform business, we're developing new ways to monetize 5G's unique features like speed, latency, et cetera. Operators and enterprises are showing great interest in this area and it will allow them to differentiate their offerings and start to develop completely new use cases.

在我們的平台業務中，我們正在開發新的方法來利用 5G 的獨特功能（如速度、延遲等）貨幣化。運營商和企業對此領域表現出極大的興趣，這將使他們能夠使自己的產品脫穎而出並開始開發全新的用例。

We're also continuing our relentless focus on enhancing our compliance program to make sure that it's fully embedded throughout the company.

我們還將繼續不懈地致力於加強我們的合規計劃，以確保其完全融入整個公司。

With that, let me now go through some of the key takeaways from the quarter. As we've said before, 2023 is a choppy year and Q2 developed much in line with our expectations and what we have said to the market. We continued to execute with discipline and focus. Our overall sales declined by 9%. The decline in Networks was partially offset by organic growth in Cloud Software and Services and a 20% organic growth in Enterprises. The EBITA margin, excluding restructuring charges, was 5.7%.

現在，讓我回顧一下本季度的一些關鍵要點。正如我們之前所說，2023 年是動蕩的一年，第二季度的發展與我們的預期和我們對市場所說的非常一致。我們繼續紀律嚴明、專注地執行。我們的整體銷售額下降了 9%。網絡業務的下滑被雲軟件和服務的有機增長以及企業業務 20% 的有機增長部分抵消。扣除重組費用後，EBITA 利潤率為 5.7%。

In Networks, India continued its strong development and network rollout. And by delivering a record build-out, we now have the leading market share in India as well. As expected, we saw a softening in other markets, primarily front-running 5G markets and that includes, of course, North America, and that's something that we have discussed with you before as well where we see the build-out pace being moderated, but we also see customer inventory levels being rebalanced. And despite this big mix shift between our geographies, we could deliver a Networks gross margin of over 39%.

在網絡方面，印度繼續強勁發展和網絡部署。通過實現創紀錄的擴建，我們現在在印度也擁有領先的市場份額。正如預期的那樣，我們看到其他市場的疲軟，主要是領先的 5G 市場，當然也包括北美，這也是我們之前與您討論過的問題，我們認為這些市場的建設步伐正在放緩，但我們也看到客戶庫存水平正在重新平衡。儘管我們的地理位置之間存在巨大的組合變化，但我們仍可以實現超過 39% 的網絡毛利率。

In Cloud Software and Services, we continued to execute on our revised strategy to reach profitability, and we are on track to reach at least breakeven for the full year.

在雲軟件和服務方面，我們繼續執行修訂後的戰略以實現盈利，並且我們有望在全年至少實現盈虧平衡。

In Enterprise, we saw a strong growth in Enterprise Wireless Solutions, and we're also happy to see a positive EBITA in Global Communications Platform. And we saw sales from Vonage current communications APIs offerings to grow by 19%.

在企業領域，我們看到企業無線解決方案的強勁增長，我們也很高興看到全球通信平台的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITA) 呈正值。我們看到 Vonage 當前通信 API 產品的銷售額增長了 19%。

And you all know the importance of IPR for our -- or to reach our long-term financial targets. And of course, that's built upon our strong technology leadership position. And in the quarter, we were able to secure another important 5G licensing agreement with a device vendor that puts us well on track to further strengthening our IPR revenue base into 2024.

你們都知道知識產權對於我們或實現我們的長期財務目標的重要性。當然，這是建立在我們強大的技術領先地位之上的。在本季度，我們與一家設備供應商達成了另一項重要的 5G 許可協議，這使我們有望在 2024 年進一步加強我們的知識產權收入基礎。

We're also addressing areas that's in our control. So when we are in the market, as we are today, that's challenging. We are intensifying our efforts on the cost-out initiatives and we are well on track to reduce our annual run rate by at least SEK 11 billion, and this will start to positively impact the P&L over the coming quarters, already now in the third quarter, but have full effect during 2024.

我們還在解決我們控制範圍內的問題。因此，當我們進入市場時，就像我們今天一樣，這充滿挑戰。我們正在加大成本削減計劃的力度，我們有望將年運行率降低至少 110 億瑞典克朗，這將開始對未來幾個季度的損益產生積極影響，目前已經是第三季度，但在 2024 年期間全面生效。

The overall performance in the quarter is really a testament to the underlying strength and resilience of our business and our ability to adapt and execute in a challenging macro environment.

本季度的整體業績確實證明了我們業務的潛在實力和彈性，以及我們在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中適應和執行的能力。

With that, let me hand over to our CFO, Carl Mellander, to really go into the numbers. Carl?

接下來，讓我們的首席財務官卡爾·梅蘭德 (Carl Mellander) 來真正討論這些數字。卡爾？

Thank you, Börje, and a very good morning to everyone on the call. So as you saw this morning, the results that we published came out according to our expectations and per the guidance that we had issued in connection with the first quarter report.

謝謝你，Börje，祝所有參加電話會議的人早上好。正如您今天早上所看到的，我們發布的結果符合我們的預期以及我們發布的與第一季度報告相關的指導。

I'll start by having a look at the development in the different market areas and then comment on some of them, if we go to the next slide, please. So looking here at the geographies, as Börje said, we saw rapid 5G rollout in India. It's very clear. And the Network sales in India doubled year-over-year. This resulted in an organic growth in our market area called South East Asia, Oceania and India by 71% organically year-over-year.

我將首先了解不同市場領域的發展，然後對其中一些領域進行評論，如果我們轉到下一張幻燈片，請。因此，正如 Börje 所說，從地域來看，我們看到 5G 在印度的快速部署。非常清楚。印度的網絡銷售額同比翻了一番。這使得我們的東南亞、大洋洲和印度市場區域的有機增長同比增長了 71%。

Our strong growth in this market area partly offset the softening, as we have discussed many times, in the North American market. This was as expected. And the decline there in North America was 42% year-over-year organically due to lower CapEx spend, as anticipated, and also reductions of customer inventory following the very high investment levels in 2021 and 2022. However, Cloud Software and Services grew 10% in the North American market area, driven by 5G.

正如我們多次討論的那樣，我們在該市場領域的強勁增長部分抵消了北美市場的疲軟。這正如預料的那樣。北美地區的有機同比下降了 42%，原因是資本支出支出（如預期）降低，以及 2021 年和 2022 年投資水平非常高後客戶庫存減少。然而，雲軟件和服務增長了 10在5G的推動下，北美市場區域佔比增長。

In Europe and Latin America, which actually was the largest market area for us in terms of sales in this quarter, we saw a decline in Europe by 6% organically. But in Latin America, we recorded a growth of 3% organically mainly driven by additional 5G deployments in Brazil. And overall, this resulted in a 3% decline for the market area as a whole.

就本季度銷售額而言，歐洲和拉丁美洲實際上是我們最大的市場區域，但我們發現歐洲有機下降了 6%。但在拉丁美洲，我們實現了 3% 的有機增長，這主要是由於巴西額外部署 5G 的推動。總體而言，這導致整個市場面積下降了 3%。

If we leave this and then zoom in on how all of this came together in the group P&L. So our reported sales in the quarter were SEK 64.4 billion. That is a decline by 9% organically due to all the reasons discussed on the previous slide. So I will not repeat that, but let me jump directly to gross margin.

如果我們離開這個，然後放大所有這些如何在集團損益中結合在一起。因此，我們報告的本季度銷售額為 644 億瑞典克朗。由於上一張幻燈片中討論的所有原因，有機下降了 9%。所以我不會重複這一點，而是讓我直接跳到毛利率。

Gross margin, excluding restructuring, declined by 390 basis points year-over-year to 38.3%. And this is primarily due to the lower sales and lower gross margin in Networks due to the -- this continued change in business mix, combined with large rollout projects, which come with initially lower margins because there's a large portion of service content in those but they also improved the margins over time.

不包括重組的毛利率同比下降 390 個基點至 38.3%。這主要是由於網絡業務的銷售額和毛利率較低，這是由於業務組合的持續變化，加上大型推出項目，這些項目最初的利潤率較低，因為這些項目中包含很大一部分服務內容，但隨著時間的推移，他們還提高了利潤率。

In gross margin, we also see positive impact from the increased IPR revenues. IPR revenue increased by SEK 1.7 billion year-over-year to SEK 3.2 billion in the quarter. And this increase was mainly driven by 1 contract signed in Q4 2022, but also the new licensing contracts signed in this quarter that Börje already mentioned. So our Q2 numbers, I should say, that also include revenue for the past unlicensed quarters in accordance with this new IPR contract.

在毛利率方面，我們也看到了知識產權收入增加的積極影響。本季度知識產權收入同比增長 17 億瑞典克朗，達到 32 億瑞典克朗。這一增長主要是由 2022 年第四季度簽署的 1 份合同推動的，而且還有 Börje 已經提到的本季度簽署的新許可合同。因此，我應該說，我們的第二季度數據還包括根據新的知識產權合同過去未經許可的季度的收入。

Cloud Software and Services gross margin, excluding restructuring, was 33.9%. This is a slight increase of 40 basis points year-over-year, supported by higher sales, but also improved delivery performance and the higher IPR revenues helps as well in this segment.

雲軟件和服務毛利率（不包括重組）為 33.9%。這比去年同期小幅增長了 40 個基點，這得益於銷售額的增加、交付績效的改善以及知識產權收入的增加也對該細分市場有所幫助。

And then in Enterprise, gross margin, excluding restructuring, decreased to 46.3% from 52.8% And this is really due to the consolidation of Vonage into Ericsson with a lower gross margin than the remaining part of the Enterprise segment.

然後，在企業業務領域，不包括重組的毛利率從 52.8% 下降至 46.3%，這實際上是由於 Vonage 併入愛立信，其毛利率低於企業業務其餘部分的毛利率。

Further down the P&L, then R&D and SG&A increased year-over-year. And aside from the FX impact here, which stands for about 25% of the increase, this mainly comes from the addition of Vonage, but also further investments in R&D as well as go-to-market activities in Enterprise Wireless Solutions.

進一步降低損益表，研發和銷售、一般管理費用同比增長。除了外匯影響（約佔增長的 25%）之外，這主要來自 Vonage 的加入，而且還來自研發的進一步投資以及企業無線解決方案的上市活動。

So all in all, group EBITA margin, excluding restructuring, was 5.7%, which is again in line with our expectations. And the year-over-year decline that you see, again, mainly impacted by lower gross income from Networks, but also the increased investments that we undertake in Enterprise and the consolidation of Vonage.

總而言之，不包括重組的集團 EBITA 利潤率為 5.7%，這再次符合我們的預期。您看到的同比下降主要是受到網絡總收入下降的影響，而且還受到我們對 Enterprise 的投資增加以及 Vonage 的整合的影響。

Can also mention restructuring charges, SEK 3.1 billion in the quarter. This is mainly for redundancy costs related to the cost-reduction activities. We still estimate restructuring costs to amount to SEK 7 billion for the full year.

還可以提到重組費用，該季度為 31 億瑞典克朗。這主要是與成本削減活動相關的裁員成本。我們仍然預計全年重組成本將達到 70 億瑞典克朗。

And as a result of this amount of restructuring as well, combined with the other factors in the P&L, we reported a net loss this quarter of SEK 0.6 billion compared with net income last year of SEK 4.7 billion in the corresponding quarter.

由於如此大規模的重組，再加上損益表中的其他因素，我們報告本季度淨虧損為 6 億瑞典克朗，而去年同期淨利潤為 47 億瑞典克朗。

Also want to mention that if we look on a rolling 4-quarter basis, sometimes that's a better metric, then our EBITA margin was 9.1%. And as you know, the long-term target is 15% to 18% EBITA margin.

還想提一下，如果我們以滾動的 4 個季度為基礎，有時這是一個更好的指標，那麼我們的 EBITA 利潤率為 9.1%。如您所知，長期目標是 15% 至 18% 的 EBITA 利潤率。

We can move to the next slide to have a look at cash flow now. So cash flow from operating activities decreased to SEK 2.9 billion from SEK 6.3 billion, SEK 2.9 billion negative. And this is mainly due, of course, one, to lower EBIT, but also increase in working capital year-over-year. And why did working capital increase? Well, it's primarily driven by the business mix shift, the same aspects that impact the P&L, including this very large rollout projects, which have longer order-to-cash cycles than the front-runner 5G markets have had. So this is an impact on working capital, but temporary. And also cash flow was impacted by the payment of the fine related to the resolution with the U.S. Department of Justice of SEK 2.1 billion, which was provisioned in an earlier period but paid in the second quarter.

我們現在可以轉到下一張幻燈片來看看現金流。因此，經營活動現金流量從 63 億瑞典克朗減少至 29 億瑞典克朗，負 29 億瑞典克朗。當然，這主要是由於息稅前利潤下降，但營運資本同比增加。為什麼營運資金增加了？嗯，這主要是由業務組合轉變驅動的，影響損益的方面相同，包括這個非常大的推出項目，這些項目的訂單到現金周期比領先的 5G 市場更長。因此，這對營運資金有影響，但只是暫時的。此外，現金流還受到與美國司法部決議相關的 21 億瑞典克朗罰款的影響，該罰款是在早期撥備的，但在第二季度支付。

We saw a small reduction of inventory. So that's good to see inventory coming down. This is driven both by the components coming down and finished goods as well. And of course, this supported cash flow in itself.

我們看到庫存小幅減少。因此，很高興看到庫存下降。這是由零部件和成品共同推動的。當然，這本身就支持了現金流。

So a result of all of this is a free cash flow before M&A at minus SEK 5 billion. To that, we can add M&A activities, SEK 0.9 billion, which was a result of Cradlepoint's acquisition of Ericom, which we have announced earlier. And we do that acquisition to strengthen the 5G offering in the Cradlepoint or Enterprise Wireless Solution portfolio.

因此，所有這一切的結果是併購前的自由現金流為負 50 億瑞典克朗。除此之外，我們還可以添加 9 億瑞典克朗的併購活動，這是我們之前宣布的 Cradlepoint 收購 Ericom 的結果。我們進行此次收購是為了加強 Cradlepoint 或企業無線解決方案組合中的 5G 產品。

Rolling 4-quarter basis, I return to that, that's on free cash flow, was SEK 6.4 billion, which corresponds to a 2.3% of net sales, again, compared to a long-term target of 9% to 12%.

在滾動的 4 季度基礎上，我回到了自由現金流為 64 億瑞典克朗，相當於淨銷售額的 2.3%，而長期目標為 9% 至 12%。

And as I believe I mentioned also in the previous quarter, of course, we are not satisfied with where we are in terms of cash generation and this really remains a key focus area for us.

當然，正如我在上一季度提到的那樣，我們對現金生成方面的現狀並不滿意，這確實仍然是我們的重點關注領域。

For Q3, we don't expect significant changes in working capital. But in the second half of 2023, we do expect a positive free cash flow before M&A with Q4 as a strong cash flow quarter in line with our historical patterns. I can only -- I also mention here that we paid out the first dividend installment in the quarter as well, amounting to totally SEK 4.6 billion.

對於第三季度，我們預計營運資金不會發生重大變化。但在 2023 年下半年，我們確實預計併購前的自由現金流為正，第四季度將是現金流強勁的季度，符合我們的歷史模式。我只能——我在這裡還提到，我們也在本季度支付了第一期股息，總計 46 億瑞典克朗。

And summing that up, closing net cash position then ended up at SEK 1.9 billion, while gross cash is at SEK 35.7 billion.

總而言之，最終結清淨現金頭寸為 19 億瑞典克朗，而總現金為 357 億瑞典克朗。

So here, we continue, of course, to execute on the funding plan we had to refinance the maturities we have in the debt portfolio and add also new sources. And among many activities in corporate finance, we have launched a commercial paper program in the quarter, and we signed an initial facility for USD 0.5 billion for general corporate purposes as well.

因此，我們當然會繼續執行融資計劃，我們必須為債務組合中的到期期限進行再融資，並添加新的來源。在企業融資的眾多活動中，我們在本季度推出了商業票據計劃，並簽署了一項 5 億美元的初始融資，用於一般企業用途。

Finally, for me, let's look at the outlook for next quarter, the third quarter 2023. A couple of items to pay attention to. First of all, we expect gross margin for Networks to be in the range of 38% to 40% in the third quarter with very similar trends and mix as we saw in Q2. We have less IPR revenue due to catch-up revenue in Q2, but on the other hand, some support from cost-out.

最後，對我來說，讓我們看看下個季度，即 2023 年第三季度的前景。有幾個需要注意的事項。首先，我們預計第三季度網絡業務的毛利率將在 38% 至 40% 之間，趨勢和組合與我們在第二季度看到的非常相似。由於第二季度的收入追趕，我們的知識產權收入有所減少，但另一方面，也有一些來自成本支出的支持。

OpEx, and here we exclude Vonage, typically decreases seasonally with SEK 0.7 billion from Q2 to Q3. But of course, as usual, we have large variation between quarters.

OpEx（這裡我們不包括 Vonage）通常會季節性下降，從第二季度到第三季度為 7 億瑞典克朗。但當然，像往常一樣，季度之間存在很大差異。

We expect now cost reduction activities to start to have an effect in Q3, but still rather small but increasing over time quarter-by-quarter going forward. It's going well in terms of executing on cost-out, and we are aiming at a run rate saving of at least SEK 11 billion by end of this year, of which 45% is related to OpEx.

我們預計成本削減活動將在第三季度開始產生影響，但仍然相當小，但隨著時間的推移，每個季度都會增加。在執行成本支出方面進展順利，我們的目標是到今年年底節省至少 110 億瑞典克朗的運行率，其中 45% 與運營支出相關。

For Cloud Software and Services, we expect Q3 EBITA to be in line with Q2. And we will, according to our estimate here and we're committed to that, reach at least breakeven for full year 2023.

對於雲軟件和服務，我們預計第三季度 EBITA 將與第二季度保持一致。根據我們的估計，我們將在 2023 年全年至少實現收支平衡，並致力於實現這一目標。

Group EBITA margin, again, excluding restructuring, of course, in Q3 is expected to be in line with or slightly better than Q2. Again, similar trends, similar business mix, early benefits of the cost-out execution and then followed by a seasonally stronger fourth quarter.

當然，集團 EBITA 利潤率，不包括重組，預計第三季度將與第二季度持平或略好。同樣，類似的趨勢、類似的業務組合、成本削減執行的早期收益，以及隨後季節性強勁的第四季度。

Thank you all for that. And with that, I hand it back to you, Börje.

謝謝大家。就這樣，我把它交還給你，Börje。

Thank you, Carl. So our strategy is really working, and we are leveraging our technology leadership in mobile networks as well as taking the critical steps in our ambition to grow in enterprises. As we look ahead, I think it's important to single out that the fundamental driver of Network CapEx is really the continued data traffic growth. And we see that 5G really continues to grow very fast. We currently forecast 5G subscriptions to be about SEK 1.5 billion by end of 2023 and reach SEK 4.6 billion by 2028.

謝謝你，卡爾。因此，我們的戰略確實有效，我們正在利用我們在移動網絡方面的技術領先地位，並採取關鍵步驟來實現我們在企業中發展的雄心。展望未來，我認為重要的是要指出網絡資本支出的根本驅動力實際上是數據流量的持續增長。我們看到 5G 確實繼續快速增長。我們目前預測，到 2023 年底，5G 用戶規模約為 15 億瑞典克朗，到 2028 年將達到 46 億瑞典克朗。

We also see that the data traffic in the network continues to grow. And we also start to see new type of use cases, call it fixed wireless access, but we're also starting to see enterprise use cases. So data traffic is growing. And with the operator's desire to meet the, I would say, the user's expectation for network quality, but adding on cost and energy efficiency, and you know CO2 footprint starts to be more and more important, we see that, that will stimulate further investments.

我們還看到網絡中的數據流量持續增長。我們也開始看到新型用例，稱之為固定無線接入，但我們也開始看到企業用例。因此數據流量正在增長。我想說，隨著運營商希望滿足用戶對網絡質量的期望，但增加成本和能源效率，二氧化碳足跡開始變得越來越重要，我們看到，這將刺激進一步的投資。

In addition, we see that 3/4 of all base station sites outside of China are not yet updated with 5G mid-band. So this, in combination with the migration to 5G stand-alone, will basically continue to drive the need for investments in 5G networks around the world.

此外，我們看到中國以外的所有基站站點中有3/4尚未更新5G中頻段。因此，再加上向 5G 獨立網絡的遷移，基本上將繼續推動全球 5G 網絡投資的需求。

So we are confident that the market will recover, and that's what we have said for several quarters. And as a consequence of these factors, of course, the exact timing of the recovery will be in the hands of our customers. But we are encouraged by the discussions we've had with several customers, where we see a recognition of the need to strengthen capacity in the network.

因此，我們對市場將會復蘇充滿信心，這就是我們幾個季度以來所說的。當然，由於這些因素，恢復的確切時間將掌握在我們的客戶手中。但我們對與幾家客戶進行的討論感到鼓舞，我們認識到需要加強網絡容量。

That said, we expect a gradual recovery towards late in 2023 and then improve in 2024. When that happens, Ericsson is really well positioned to benefit. And based on an expected recovery of the mobile network market, we remain focused on reaching the lower end of the 15% to 18% EBITA margin target in 2024.

也就是說，我們預計到 2023 年末將逐步復甦，然後在 2024 年有所改善。當這種情況發生時，愛立信確實能夠受益。基於移動網絡市場的預期復蘇，我們仍致力於在 2024 年達到 15% 至 18% EBITA 利潤率目標的下限。

So to sum up, we continue to navigate the current environment with discipline and focus. We're delivering on the Cloud Software and Services turnaround. We do portfolio adjustments. We will enhance the R&D productivity. We see IPR revenue growth. And we will continue to execute on our cost-out reduction -- or cost reductions. And of course, in an uncertain market to really impact what we can impact that's under our control is critical. So we have accelerated our efforts on the cost-out like we spoke about last quarter in preparation for a tougher market condition.

總而言之，我們將繼續以紀律和專注來應對當前的環境。我們正在實現雲軟件和服務的轉變。我們進行投資組合調整。提高研發生產力。我們看到知識產權收入增長。我們將繼續減少成本支出。當然，在一個不確定的市場中，真正影響我們能夠影響的事情是至關重要的。因此，我們加快了成本削減的力度，就像我們上季度談到的那樣，為更嚴峻的市場狀況做好準備。

But we remain ultimately focused on our key strategic priorities: to drive technology leadership in mobile networks, expand or leverage the capabilities we have for cellular networks into expanding in the enterprise space that increases our addressable market and growth potential, and finally, to strengthen our culture.

但我們最終仍然專注於我們的關鍵戰略重點：推動移動網絡的技術領先地位，擴展或利用我們在蜂窩網絡方面的能力擴展到企業領域，從而增加我們的潛在市場和增長潛力，最後，加強我們的文化。

With that, I would really like to thank all the fantastic people in Ericsson who has made this position we've achieved today possible. A big thank you to all of you. With that, back to you, Peter.

在此，我衷心感謝愛立信所有出色的員工，是他們使我們今天取得的成績成為可能。非常感謝大家。說到這裡，回到你身邊，彼得。

Thank you, Börje. So it's now time for the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) If you are streaming the webcast, please mute the webcast audio whilst asking question to minimize any kind of sort of audio feedback.

謝謝你，伯傑。現在是問答環節。 （操作員說明）如果您正在流式傳輸網絡廣播，請在提問時將網絡廣播音頻靜音，以最大程度地減少任何類型的音頻反饋。

So our first question now comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc.

所以我們的第一個問題現在來自 Aleksander Peterc。

I will just have a first one, which is a bit dense and then a very small follow-up, if I may. So my first question is really there's a disconnect between your guidance of 15% EBITA margins in 2024 and the consensus which is currently at 11.5%. Now the jump in EBITA that is implied in your ambition or guidance is almost SEK 20 billion now, and that's almost double your planned annual cost savings run rate, which is SEK 11 billion, some of which will already be in the '23 numbers -- already in the base.

如果可以的話，我只會有第一個，有點密集，然後是一個非常小的後續。所以我的第一個問題是，你們對 2024 年 15% EBITA 利潤率的指導與目前 11.5% 的共識之間確實存在脫節。現在，您的雄心或指導中隱含的 EBITA 躍升幾乎為 200 億瑞典克朗，這幾乎是您計劃的年度成本節約運行率（110 億瑞典克朗）的兩倍，其中一些已經在 23 年的數字中了 - - 已經在基地了。

So I'd just like to understand where exactly is consensus getting it so wrong? Is it the market mix? Do you see much more substantial growth into 2024? Where are we all getting it so badly wrong?

所以我只是想了解共識到底錯在哪裡？是市場組合嗎？您認為 2024 年會有更大幅度的增長嗎？我們都在哪裡犯瞭如此嚴重的錯誤？

Maybe I can start. The fundamental premise for our targets for 2024 has been the -- what we see as a recovery in the market, and you have to factor that in. And that, to me, is of course -- it's impossible to say exact timing when that will happen. But we're very confident it will happen and that will provide basic support for the market. Then our cost-out ambition is at least SEK 11 billion. So we should be reaching that, that will provide support.

也許我可以開始。我們 2024 年目標的基本前提是——我們認為市場復甦，你必須考慮到這一點。對我來說，當然是——不可能說出具體的時間。將會發生。但我們非常有信心它會發生，這將為市場提供基本支持。那麼我們的成本支出目標至少是 110 億瑞典克朗。所以我們應該做到這一點，這將提供支持。

In addition, there are a couple of things, which I'm not sure is factored in. One is IPR revenues. That, we see will continue to grow into next year. We also see that the fundamental turnaround of our Cloud Software and Services will provide a strong support next year. And we will also see some portfolio adjustments that we have already spoken about before to provide support.

此外，還有幾件事我不確定是否被考慮在內。其中之一是知識產權收入。我們認為這種情況將持續增長到明年。我們還看到，我們的雲軟件和服務的根本性轉變將為明年提供強有力的支持。我們還將看到一些我們之前已經討論過的投資組合調整，以提供支持。

So yes, we do continue to focus on reaching that target for next year and we've said we should be in the lower end of that range. We are focused on reaching that, and that's why we're trying to be as aggressive as we can on the items we can control right now.

所以，是的，我們確實繼續專注於實現明年的目標，並且我們說過我們應該處於該範圍的下限。我們專注於實現這一目標，這就是為什麼我們試圖在我們現在可以控制的項目上盡可能積極地進行。

You had a second question, Aleksander as well, right?

亞歷山大，你還有第二個問題，對吧？

Yes, just a quick follow-up. I do feel that your message for the recovery has slipped by about a quarter. You mentioned before, I think in Q1, we spoke of a gradual recovery in the second half. And now basically, third quarter is very similar to the second with a slight improvement in EBITA margins, but not that material and the real recovery is in Q4 so -- or then seriously in 2024. So can you tell us which markets are a little bit weaker than you previously thought? Is it a longer slump in the U.S. primarily or anything else?

是的，只是快速跟進。我確實覺得你們關於復甦的信息已經下降了大約四分之一。您之前提到，我想在第一季度，我們談到了下半年的逐步復甦。現在基本上，第三季度與第二季度非常相似，EBITA 利潤率略有改善，但不是那麼重要，真正的複蘇是在第四季度，或者是在 2024 年。所以你能告訴我們哪些市場有一點改善嗎？比你之前想像的要弱一些？主要是美國的經濟衰退時間更長還是其他原因？

Börje?

伯傑？

We see overall a softer market that we've said since the end of last year. And of course, it's very hard to predict the exact timing when customers will buy. What we see is the network quality around the world, actually in many markets, starting to deteriorate. And of course, that provides the basics for the investments. Exactly when that's going to happen, I feel that it's really in the hands of the customer. So it's in the hands of their view of capital market, their view of prospects in the business for increasing revenues, et cetera. So that's little bit difficult to say.

正如我們去年年底以來所說的那樣，我們看到整體市場疲軟。當然，很難預測客戶購買的確切時間。我們看到的是世界各地的網絡質量，實際上是許多市場的網絡質量開始惡化。當然，這為投資提供了基礎。確切地說，什麼時候會發生，我覺得這真的掌握在客戶手中。因此，這取決於他們對資本市場的看法，他們對增加收入的業務前景的看法等等。所以這有點難說。

With our current visibility, we believe it's realistic to plan for that to happen later in 2023. Is it later or earlier than we have said before? I don't really know. If anything, probably fair to say that it's slightly later. But it's not a dramatic change in outlook that we try to say already last year.

根據我們目前的能見度，我們認為計劃在 2023 年晚些時候實現這一目標是現實的。它比我們之前所說的更晚還是更早？我真的不知道。如果說有什麼不同的話，公平地說，可能是稍微晚了一些。但這並不是我們去年試圖說的前景發生巨大變化。

In the end of last year, we spoke about the slower build-out pace than we expected. We spoke about the inventory adjustments our customers are making. Of course, as this quarter continues, there will be less and less of the inventory adjustments. So that will provide a support for the market recovery and kind of looking better towards the end of the year.

去年年底，我們談到建設速度比我們預期的要慢。我們談到了客戶正在進行的庫存調整。當然，隨著本季度的繼續，庫存調整將會越來越少。因此，這將為市場復甦提供支持，並在年底前看起來更好。

Thank you, Aleksander, for that question. So let's go to the next question, and we will see -- we'll have the next question from Francois Bouvignies from UBS.

謝謝亞歷山大提出這個問題。那麼，讓我們進入下一個問題，我們將會看到——我們將有來自瑞銀集團的弗朗索瓦·布維尼 (Francois Bouvignies) 提出的下一個問題。

I have 2 quick ones as well. So the first one is on -- a follow-up to Alex's question on maybe the, Börje, what you said on inventories. So you were impacted by inventories correction and you are still now in Q3. Do you have any estimates of where we are in this inventory correction? I mean, in other words, versus a normal level at your customers, where is it now? Do you have any intelligence to provide some color around this?

我也有2個快速的。所以第一個是——亞歷克斯的問題的後續，也許是，Börje，你在庫存方面所說的話。因此，您受到了庫存調整的影響，並且現在仍處於第三季度。您對本次庫存調整的進展有何估計？我的意思是，換句話說，與您客戶的正常水平相比，現在處於什麼水平？你有智慧可以為此提供一些顏色嗎？

Yes. Francois, maybe I'll take that one. Yes. So we -- as you said, we saw this happening in Q1 as anticipated and also in Q2. It will continue to some extent in Q3 as well. And that's why we talk about a very similar trend and similar market mix and is part of that story, the inventory reductions. But from that point, we also see with the visibility we have now and the customer dialogues that, that will flatten out towards the latter part of the year. And as Börje just said, this will support, of course, the overall recovery and making the second half a stronger half than the first half this year.

是的。弗朗索瓦，也許我會選擇那個。是的。因此，正如您所說，我們在第一季度和第二季度都看到了這種情況的發生。第三季度這種情況也將在一定程度上持續下去。這就是為什麼我們談論非常相似的趨勢和相似的市場組合，這也是故事的一部分，即庫存減少。但從那時起，我們還看到，根據我們現在的知名度和客戶對話，這種情況將在今年下半年趨於平緩。正如伯傑剛才所說，這當然將支持整體復甦，並使今年下半年比上半年更強勁。

Okay. And maybe longer term, Börje, you talked about the 75% of all base stations outside China not yet updated with mid-band. And the question is not if, like you mentioned, we don't know if it will happen. But I'm questioning more the how it's going to go back up, if you like.

好的。也許從長遠來看，Börje，您談到中國境外 75% 的基站尚未更新為中頻段。問題不在於，就像你提到的那樣，我們不知道這是否會發生。但如果你願意的話，我更想知道它將如何恢復。

I mean, are we going to see a strong traction of upgrade? Or is it going to be like a very granular Phase 1 upgrade all these, the base stations, to mid-band especially in the context of current macro environment, lack of, maybe you can argue, applications. How should we think about this pace basically of upgrades that you foresee?

我的意思是，我們會看到升級的強勁動力嗎？或者它會像一個非常細粒度的第一階段升級所有這些，基站，到中頻帶，特別是在當前的宏觀環境中，也許你可以說，缺乏應用程序。我們應該如何看待您預見的升級速度？

Yes. The first, I think, we need to recognize that for a fully built-out 5G network, there is probably going to be a need for more sites than it was in a 4G world. So even if we benchmark to the total size of 4G base stations, we're probably going to see more sites on 5G.

是的。我認為，首先，我們需要認識到，對於完全建成的 5G 網絡，可能需要比 4G 世界更多的站點。因此，即使我們以 4G 基站的總規模為基準，我們也可能會看到更多的 5G 站點。

And then what we see will happen is ultimately the -- when you talk about 5G from a nonstand-alone basis, you don't get access to the features that are going to be needed for future digitalization and future use cases. So if you need the ultra-low latency, higher speed capacity on demand, et cetera, you will need to get 5G stand-alone. And that migration is really only in its early phases. So what we see will happen here is that we will start to get new use cases. It can be generative AI, but it can also be XR. And those will start to drive new type of traffic that will require the 5G to be built out. Then it's all about how you monetize that.

然後我們看到最終會發生的是——當你從非獨立的基礎上談論 5G 時，你無法訪問未來數字化和未來用例所需的功能。因此，如果您需要超低延遲、更高速度的按需容量等，您將需要獲得 5G 獨立網絡。這種遷移實際上還處於早期階段。因此，我們在這裡看到的情況是，我們將開始獲得新的用例。它可以是生成式人工智能，也可以是XR。這些將開始推動新型流量的發展，而這些流量需要建設 5G。然後就是如何將其貨幣化。

And that's why I want to tie it into the discussion about network APIs. We think that's going to be critical. So when you are going to call up -- so you put on your XR devices and you say, okay, now I need super low latency, and I can do that through a network API. Then you start to drive a completely new upgrade cycle of the network, you'll drive new monetization and you drive a new way for us also to create revenues. And that's why we invest quite heavily in the network APIs. So you see that this start to come together in order to drive the network upgrades.

這就是為什麼我想將其與網絡 API 的討論聯繫起來。我們認為這將是至關重要的。所以，當你要打電話時，你戴上 XR 設備，然後說，好吧，現在我需要超低延遲，我可以通過網絡 API 來做到這一點。然後你開始推動一個全新的網絡升級週期，你將推動新的貨幣化，你也將推動我們創造收入的新方式。這就是我們在網絡 API 上投入大量資金的原因。所以你會看到，這一切開始結合起來，以推動網絡升級。

Then, of course, how will that exact upgrade cycle look like? Well, we do believe it's going to be a gradual build out, that it will be nationwide like it's happening in India right now. In every country, I think is borderline to unlikely to assume and I wouldn't do that. But if you look at how you would build out a network, of course, you're going to build it out where you have customers first and then you gradually expand from there.

當然，具體的升級週期會是什麼樣子呢？嗯，我們確實相信這將是一個逐步的建設，它將像現在在印度發生的那樣在全國范圍內進行。我認為在每個國家都不太可能假設，而且我不會這樣做。但是，如果您考慮如何構建網絡，當然，您將首先在擁有客戶的地方構建網絡，然後從那裡逐漸擴展。

I want to add one more thing, which I think is critical. And if you look at fixed wireless access, so look at net broadband additions in the most developed fixed wireless access market in the world is the U.S. And actually, over the last few quarters, almost all growth in broadband connections comes from fixed wireless access. And that's why we see that this kind of drive for cost-efficient rollout and cost-efficient deployment of broadband to the citizens of a country, fixed wireless access will play a big role. We see numbers in India being very large, and one of the operators talking about 100 million connections there. We see those to be built out that's going to drive new revenue streams for the operators as well. So we see this build-out to happen and it's going to happen, of course, over several years.

我還想補充一件事，我認為這一點很關鍵。如果你看看固定無線接入，那麼看看世界上最發達的固定無線接入市場的淨寬帶新增情況是美國。實際上，在過去的幾個季度中，幾乎所有寬帶連接的增長都來自固定無線接入。這就是為什麼我們看到，這種向一個國家的公民經濟高效地推出和部署寬帶的驅動力，固定無線接入將發揮重要作用。我們看到印度的連接數量非常大，其中一位運營商稱那裡有 1 億個連接。我們認為這些項目的建設也將為運營商帶來新的收入來源。因此，我們看到這種擴建將會發生，而且當然會在幾年內發生。

Thank you, Börje. Thank you, Francois, for that question. So we are now going to the next question in this Q&A session. So the next question is from Alexander Duval at Goldman Sachs.

謝謝你，伯傑。謝謝弗朗索瓦提出這個問題。現在我們將討論本次問答環節的下一個問題。下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷山大·杜瓦爾。

I just had a clarification on market outlook. You're talking today about scope for gradual market recovery this year and improvements next year. Just want to understand the main factors to drive that kind of recovery. I would note, for example, in the U.S., you talk about 50% decline in the market or at least in revenues and that's obviously one of the front-runners on 5G. One would assume that, that would be followed by other markets that are a bit further behind also declining. So I just want to understand what would drive that improvement into next year? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

我剛剛對市場前景進行了澄清。您今天談論的是今年市場逐步復甦和明年改善的範圍。只是想了解推動這種複甦的主要因素。我想指出，例如，在美國，你談到市場或至少收入下降 50%，而這顯然是 5G 的領先者之一。人們會認為，緊隨其後的是其他稍微落後的市場也會下跌。所以我只是想了解什麼會推動明年的改進？然後我會進行快速跟進。

Carl?

卡爾？

Yes. I think actually Börje talked about a lot of those key drivers for exactly what you're asking about, the recovery. I mean we see data traffic growth continuing at very, very high speeds in North America and in other markets as well. That's a key driver, of course, because for an operator to be able to deliver the customer experience that they need to, investments in the network will be required to cater for this. And 5G, of course, also happens to be the most cost-effective way of delivering those gigabytes through the networks.

是的。我認為實際上伯傑談到了很多關鍵驅動因素，這正是你所問的複蘇問題。我的意思是，我們看到北美和其他市場的數據流量持續以非常非常高的速度增長。當然，這是一個關鍵驅動因素，因為運營商要想提供所需的客戶體驗，就需要對網絡進行投資來滿足這一需求。當然，5G 也恰好是通過網絡傳輸這些千兆字節的最具成本效益的方式。

But then you have the energy side and CO2 side of it as well, driving investments in more modern technology to get your energy bill down, not to mention the new applications that are coming onstream. And we have seen new XR or VR devices launched by several players now. Of course, they will -- once they become a bigger part of the ecosystem, of course, will drive very high demands on the network.

但同時還有能源方面和二氧化碳方面，推動對更現代技術的投資以降低能源費用，更不用說即將投入使用的新應用了。我們現在已經看到一些玩家推出了新的 XR 或 VR 設備。當然，一旦它們成為生態系統的重要組成部分，它們就會對網絡提出非常高的要求。

So all these fundamentals are there, and that's what we believe will drive the long-term recovery of the market.

因此，所有這些基本面都存在，我們相信這將推動市場的長期復蘇。

And you also have to add -- that's the long-term drivers, and those are the fundamental drivers, right? Short term, we also have the inventory adjustments, which is working its way through. The -- in several markets around the world, you saw over '21 and '22 our customers to build up inventory to manage an uncertain supply chain, call it that. And that led them to have excessive inventory and those have been working its way through the systems over this year.

你還必須補充一點——這是長期驅動因素，也是基本驅動因素，對嗎？短期來看，我們還有庫存調整，目前正在發揮作用。在世界各地的多個市場中，您會看到超過 21 和 22 年的客戶建立庫存來管理不確定的供應鏈，就這樣吧。這導致他們庫存過多，而這些庫存在今年一直在系統中發揮作用。

So of course, those will run its course. Once they've run its course, then we're back to the fundamental drivers of the demand for CapEx. And that's why we are confident that, that will come back. Exact timing is, of course, in the hands of customers and depends on many considerations they have to do.

當然，這些都會自然而然地發生。一旦它們完成了任務，我們就會回到資本支出需求的基本驅動因素。這就是為什麼我們有信心這種情況會回來。當然，確切的時間掌握在客戶手中，並且取決於他們必須考慮的許多因素。

But ultimately, if you're going to deliver customer service, I think you, for example, you would like to have connectivity most of the time. But if you run out in a network where you have capacity constraints, you may see bars on your device. But in reality, you have no data connectivity. That's typically when you have -- when you're starting to run out of capacity or you simply cannot make a phone call. I think in our day and age, we are not going to be happy with that and we would expect a better service as a user. And that's ultimately what's going to drive the demand.

但最終，如果你要提供客戶服務，我想你，例如，你希望在大部分時間都有連接。但是，如果您在容量有限的網絡中用完，您可能會在設備上看到酒吧。但實際上，您沒有數據連接。這通常是當您開始耗盡容量或根本無法撥打電話時。我認為在我們這個時代，我們不會對此感到滿意，我們希望作為用戶得到更好的服務。這最終將推動需求。

Thanks, Börje. You had a second question as well, Alexander?

謝謝，伯傑。你還有第二個問題，亞歷山大？

Yes. Greatly appreciate the clarification. Just a quick second one. You talked in your release about the fourth quarter being seasonally strong from a margin perspective, and just wanted to understand all of the factors that feed into that. Obviously, you talk about a RAN market, which is now weaker according to the release, both on a global basis and in North America, which is a very profitable market. But at the same time, you're talking about normal seasonality in Q3 on top line. So that would imply worse than normal seasonality in Q4.

是的。非常感謝您的澄清。只是快速的第二個。您在新聞稿中談到，從利潤率的角度來看，第四季度的季節性表現強勁，並且只是想了解影響這一情況的所有因素。顯然，您談論的是 RAN 市場，根據發布的信息，該市場現在在全球範圍內和北美市場均較弱，而北美是一個非常有利可圖的市場。但與此同時，您正在談論第三季度的正常季節性。因此，這意味著第四季度的季節性比正常情況更糟糕。

So I just wanted to understand what are the factors that sort of give you comfort there? You just referenced, for example, the fact that there won't be as much of an adjustment in inventory. But I'm wondering if there are other factors that give you confidence.

所以我只是想了解哪些因素能讓你感到安慰？例如，您剛才提到了庫存不會有太大調整的事實。但我想知道是否還有其他因素可以給你信心。

Carl?

卡爾？

That is one, for sure, the inventory adjustments where that depletion is coming to an end and normalizing. But we see also a mix effect here in Q4. This is the traditional seasonality we see. Also, it's a better mix of business, typically in the fourth quarter. It depends on, of course, how customers -- what spending patterns customers have and so on. But we always see that improvement in the fourth quarter. It's about how projects are concluded and how we deliver to customers to close the year. So we typically see that inventory is one thing and then the normal seasonality of our entire industry. And as long as I've been working here, we've always seen a stronger Q4 many, many years.

毫無疑問，這就是庫存調整，即庫存消耗即將結束並趨於正常化。但我們在第四季度也看到了混合效應。這是我們看到的傳統季節性。此外，這是一個更好的業務組合，通常是在第四季度。當然，這取決於客戶的方式——客戶的消費模式等等。但我們總是在第四季度看到這種改善。這關係到項目如何結束以及我們如何向客戶交付成果以結束這一年。因此，我們通常會看到庫存是一回事，然後是整個行業的正常季節性。自從我在這里工作以來，很多很多年來我們總是看到更強勁的第四季度。

Okay. Thanks. Thanks, Alex, for the question. Then we'll move further in the queue here. And I'll see -- I have the next question from Andreas Joelsson at Danske Bank.

好的。謝謝。謝謝亞歷克斯的提問。然後我們將在隊列中進一步移動。我會看看——丹麥銀行的安德烈亞斯·喬爾森（Andreas Joelsson）提出了下一個問題。

Maybe a slight shift in the questions, looking into the Enterprise side. If you could explain a little bit more the reception you have got from this, the strategy that you have in this area from your customers, especially in the U.S. but also how to leverage this portfolio outside the U.S. Any comment on pipeline and if we can expect this, the growth that you have now, to continue also for the coming quarters, that would be great.

也許問題略有轉變，看看企業方面。如果您能多解釋一下您從中獲得的反響，您的客戶在這一領域的策略，尤其是在美國，以及如何在美國以外的地區利用該產品組合。對管道的任何評論以及我們是否可以預計現在的增長在未來幾個季度也能持續下去，那就太好了。

Börje?

伯耶？

Maybe we divide it into the 2 components. So Enterprise Wireless Solutions continues to have a good growth rate. Of course, a little bit tougher market conditions due to the general economy, I will say. But we see also a very strong development with a strong pipeline of products that we are bringing to the market now. We're still in the, I would say, in the early phases of building up our go-to-market organization there. We will, of course, pace that with sales. So it's not about increasing the cost, per se, but we're still not getting the full efficiency of our sales force on the Enterprise side.

也許我們把它分成兩個部分。因此，企業無線解決方案繼續保持良好的增長率。當然，我會說，由於整體經濟的原因，市場條件會變得更加嚴峻。但我們也看到了非常強勁的發展，我們現在正在向市場推出強大的產品線。我想說，我們仍處於在那裡建立我們的市場組織的早期階段。當然，我們會根據銷量來調整。因此，這本身並不是增加成本，而是我們仍然沒有充分發揮企業方面銷售人員的效率。

But we see a very good collaboration with our CSP customers, and they are actually very excited about bringing these type of products to the market as it drives revenues for them as well. But here, we have more work to do. We will -- and please remember that it's a different business model with a large part of deferred revenues. So we create a recurring business there. Will impact the P&L initially, but over time it will be a highly profitable part.

但我們看到與 CSP 客戶的合作非常好，他們實際上對將此類產品推向市場感到非常興奮，因為這也為他們帶來了收入。但在這裡，我們還有更多工作要做。我們會——並且請記住，這是一種不同的商業模式，其中很大一部分是遞延收入。所以我們在那裡創造了一項經常性業務。最初會影響損益，但隨著時間的推移，它將成為高利潤的部分。

I would also say on Dedicated Networks, we are still early outside of China. There are some use cases, imports, some basic early manufacturing, but it's still a relatively small market around the world. If you compare it to China, China has -- by the end of last year, they had more than 6,000 dedicated networks deployed in China. We see in, call it, the Western world, Europe and the U.S., maybe we have about 1,000, maybe 1,500, but it's significantly smaller than it is in China. And that, I think, points to the actual opportunity here being much larger than we're servicing now. And of course, this will depend on establishing the use cases and the way we approach the market. So we see that as a good potential for growth going forward, but we're still early on in that.

我還要說，在專用網絡方面，我們在中國以外的地區還處於早期階段。有一些用例、進口、一些基本的早期製造，但它在全球範圍內仍然是一個相對較小的市場。如果你和中國相比，中國到去年年底已經在中國部署了6000多個專網。我們看到，在西方世界、歐洲和美國，也許我們有大約 1,000 個，也許有 1,500 個，但它比中國要少得多。我認為，這表明這裡的實際機會比我們現在提供的服務大得多。當然，這將取決於建立用例以及我們進入市場的方式。因此，我們認為這是未來增長的良好潛力，但我們仍處於早期階段。

If we look at our Platform business in global communication platform, there we're having a good traction, as you can see on the communication APIs that we're in the market with today and that's the old Vonage business growing 19% in second quarter. Of course, that is impacted by the general economic conditions. So it has been going a bit slower than it did '21 and '22, but we still see a fairly good growth rate continuing.

如果我們看看我們在全球通信平台中的平台業務，就會發現我們有很好的吸引力，正如您在我們今天市場上的通信 API 上看到的那樣，舊的 Vonage 業務在第二季度增長了 19% 。當然，這受到總體經濟狀況的影響。因此，它的增長速度比 21 年和 22 年要慢一些，但我們仍然看到相當好的增長率仍在繼續。

What we're very excited about is the network APIs. And we launched the first or launched -- it's a bit exaggeration, but we showcased the first network APIs at Mobile World Congress together with 3 operators in Spain: Vodafone, Telefónica and Orange. We are continuing dialogue with a number of leading operators on how to establish this network API market. So when we have more development there, we will talk about it.

我們非常興奮的是網絡 API。我們推出了第一個或推出了——這有點誇張，但我們在世界移動通信大會上與西班牙的 3 家運營商一起展示了第一個網絡 API：沃達丰、西班牙電信和 Orange。我們正在繼續與一些領先的運營商就如何建立這個網絡API市場進行對話。所以當我們那裡有更多的發展時，我們會談論它。

But what we see is it's an excitement in the industry. And here, we are shaping the industry landscape by driving the whole adoption of network APIs. And what we see here is that, that's the way network resources will be consumed in the future. They will be called up by applications and paid for through a CPaaS platform. So we're very excited about that, but it's still early in the development. So give us a few quarters here, and you will start to see some progress.

但我們看到的是這個行業令人興奮。在這裡，我們通過推動網絡 API 的全面採用來塑造行業格局。我們在這裡看到的是，這就是未來網絡資源的消耗方式。它們將由應用程序調用並通過 CPaaS 平台進行支付。我們對此感到非常興奮，但仍處於開發早期階段。因此，給我們幾個季度的時間，您將開始看到一些進展。

Thanks, Börje.

謝謝，伯傑。

So maybe a follow-up just on what the Chinese enterprises see in these dedicated networks as a benefit that you are not seeing outside of China. And how can you help the enterprises seeing that benefit?

因此，也許是關於中國企業在這些專用網絡中看到的在中國以外看不到的好處的後續行動。您如何幫助企業看到這種好處？

Yes. That's a great question, Andreas. As a matter of fact, what we see in China is that they are developing completely new use cases. So what is unique with cellular connectivity and 5G in particular is to get reliable, always available and secure connectivity. And that's critical in an enterprise application.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，安德烈亞斯。事實上，我們在中國看到的是他們正在開發全新的用例。因此，蜂窩連接（尤其是 5G）的獨特之處在於獲得可靠、始終可用且安全的連接。這對於企業應用程序至關重要。

So take a manufacturing site. What we see is a full deployment of sensors. You can develop a full digital twin of the factory and basically make adjustments in the digital twin and then implement it very quickly and very flexibly. So that's one use case.

因此，選擇一個生產場地。我們看到的是傳感器的全面部署。您可以開發工廠的完整數字孿生，並基本上在數字孿生中進行調整，然後非常快速且非常靈活地實施。這就是一個用例。

Another use case that's also gaining traction is the in-line inspection. So you actually do image processing of in-line inspection going much faster than manual and as much higher precision. Then you see more traditional use cases, connect self-guided vehicles. And as a matter of fact, there are some front-running manufacturing sites outside of China where we see deployment of dedicated networks resulting in much higher cycle time, much reduced cycle time, speed in manufacturing goes up as well as higher quality levels.

另一個同樣受到關注的用例是在線檢查。因此，您實際上可以對在線檢測進行圖像處理，速度比手動快得多，精度也高得多。然後你會看到更多傳統的用例，連接自動駕駛車輛。事實上，在中國以外的一些領先製造工廠，我們看到部署了專用網絡，從而大大提高了周期時間、大大縮短了周期時間、提高了製造速度以及提高了質量水平。

So we're starting to see some early signs outside of China, but I will say China is ahead of the new type of applications here.

因此，我們開始看到中國以外的一些早期跡象，但我想說，中國在新型應用方面處於領先地位。

Thanks, Börje. And thank you, Andreas, for those 2 questions. So we'll move further in the Q&A session, and we have the next question from Peter Kurt Nielsen at ABG.

謝謝，伯傑。謝謝安德烈亞斯提出的兩個問題。因此，我們將在問答環節中進一步討論，下一個問題將由 ABG 的 Peter Kurt Nielsen 提出。

My first question relates to the Network gross margin, please. You've obviously talked -- spoken essentially about the mix impact. And with the decline in North America, growth in India, that's plain for us to see. However, Carl has also -- as Carl said earlier, the initial phase, the ramp-up phase in India, the deployment primarily comes with low margins, which should then gradually improve as you move further in that project.

我的第一個問題與網絡毛利率有關。顯然，您已經談到了——基本上談到了混合影響。隨著北美地區的衰落和印度地區的增長，我們可以清楚地看到這一點。然而，正如卡爾早些時候所說，在印度的初始階段、加速階段，部署的利潤率主要較低，隨著項目的進一步推進，利潤率應該會逐漸改善。

So my question is, when will we start to see the underlying margins, gross margins, in India improve and contribute, how should I say, to a better overall gross margin irrespective of the mix changes we are seeing? I.e., when will gross margins in India improve in this rollout phase?

所以我的問題是，我們什麼時候才能開始看到印度的基礎利潤率、毛利率有所改善，並為更好的整體毛利率做出貢獻，我該怎麼說，無論我們看到的組合變化如何？即，在這個推出階段，印度的毛利率何時會改善？

And then my second quick question is just, Carl, could you tell us what the underlying run rate in IPR revenues is now adjusted for the one-off payment in Q2, please?

然後我的第二個問題是，卡爾，您能否告訴我們現在針對第二季度的一次性付款調整的知識產權收入的基本運行率是多少？

Carl, should you...

卡爾，你應該...

Yes. I can start with the IPR piece so -- and will say this also. So the IPR expectation for the third quarter is somewhere between SEK 2.5 billion and SEK 2.8 billion. That's the number that we give. And obviously, with a new signed contract, we are on our way towards this substantial growth of the IPR portfolio that we have talked about before, some SEK 12 billion, SEK 13 billion as an aim for next year, thanks to these new contracts. So SEK 2.5 billion to SEK 2.8 billion next quarter. That's where we aim.

是的。我可以從知識產權部分開始——並且也會這樣說。因此，第三季度的知識產權預期在 25 億瑞典克朗至 28 億瑞典克朗之間。這就是我們給出的數字。顯然，通過新簽署的合同，我們正朝著我們之前談到的知識產權組合的大幅增長邁進，由於這些新合同，明年的目標是約 120 億瑞典克朗、130 億瑞典克朗。因此下季度將由 25 億瑞典克朗增至 28 億瑞典克朗。這就是我們的目標。

And then the gross margin question, the reality is we're going from about 35-ish percent share of North America to about a 25% share of sales. And India goes from, I believe, for...

然後是毛利率問題，現實情況是我們在北美的銷售份額將從 35% 左右上升到 25% 左右。我相信，印度從……

3% to 16%.

3％至16％。

Yes, 3% to 16%. So it's a big mix shift. And we can still execute with a gross margin that's about 39% in Network. So it's -- there is a big change here in our sales mix. Of course, the details on contracts we're not going to discuss here. But we are already seeing a strengthening of the gross margin profile, delivering well according to our plans.

是的，3% 到 16%。所以這是一個很大的混合轉變。我們仍然可以在網絡領域實現約 39% 的毛利率。所以我們的銷售組合發生了很大的變化。當然，我們不會在這裡討論合同的細節。但我們已經看到毛利率有所增強，並且按照我們的計劃交付良好。

Okay. Are you good with that, Peter Kurt? Okay. Thank you for that question, Peter Kurt. And we'll move to the next question. That question is from Andrew Gardiner at Citi.

好的。彼得·庫爾特，你對此感到滿意嗎？好的。謝謝你提出這個問題，彼得·庫爾特。我們將討論下一個問題。這個問題是花旗銀行的安德魯·加德納提出的。

I had another one on your visibility into the recovery that you're calling for later this year and into 2024. Yes, I hear what you're saying in terms of the need for additional deployment, mid-band coverage, networks perhaps deteriorating a bit under the traffic load. All of that sort of makes theoretical sense to me.

我還有另一份關於您所呼籲的今年晚些時候至 2024 年復甦的看法。是的，我聽到您所說的需要額外部署、中頻段覆蓋、網絡可能會惡化位在交通負載之下。所有這些對我來說都具有理論上的意義。

But I'm just wondering if you're not yet seeing it in terms of firm orders from the customers, by when would you need to in order to see a reasonable recovery in the fourth quarter? I know you don't have the longest lead times and you will have inventory on hand. But I suppose I'm just worried that if we're here in the middle of July and you're still not seeing the firm orders coming in, are we not setting ourselves up for a risk of disappointment come sort of September and October if indeed they haven't arrived? So just what -- by when would you need to see the customers react and place the orders in order to see that 4Q recovery?

但我只是想知道，如果您還沒有看到客戶的確定訂單，那麼您需要什麼時候才能看到第四季度的合理復甦？我知道你們的交貨時間不是最長，而且你們手頭有庫存。但我想我只是擔心，如果我們在 7 月中旬到達這裡，而您仍然沒有看到確定的訂單進來，我們是否沒有做好準備，迎接 9 月和 10 月到來的失望風險，如果他們確實還沒到嗎？那麼，您需要什麼時候看到客戶的反應並下訂單才能看到第四季度的複蘇？

Börje?

伯傑？

Historically, when we've seen these type of market situations, it's a very short lead time. And that's why it also depends on software, can we upgrade with only software, et cetera. So it depends a lot about the specific network situation for the customer. That's why it's hard to give you a specific answer. But at least we know from the customer discussions we're having now that a lot of the customers are starting to see deteriorating network performance that actually leads to churn. And that's why we're also confident that it will come. I can't predict exactly. And as a matter of fact, that's why we never discuss backlog in our industry because it is a relatively short delivery cycle on those type of contracts where you buy capacity.

從歷史上看，當我們看到這種類型的市場情況時，交貨時間非常短。這就是為什麼它還取決於軟件，我們是否可以僅使用軟件進行升級等等。所以這很大程度上取決於客戶的具體網絡情況。這就是為什麼很難給你一個具體的答案。但至少我們從現在進行的客戶討論中知道，許多客戶開始看到網絡性能惡化，這實際上會導致客戶流失。這就是為什麼我們也相信它會到來。我無法準確預測。事實上，這就是為什麼我們從不討論我們行業的積壓問題，因為對於購買產能的此類合同來說，交付週期相對較短。

Thanks, Börje. Did you have a follow-up, Andrew?

謝謝，伯傑。安德魯，你有後續行動嗎？

No. That's fine.

不，沒關係。

Thank you, Andrew for that question. We will then move to the next question, and I would have Daniel Djurberg at Handelsbanken.

謝謝安德魯提出這個問題。然後我們將討論下一個問題，我請德國商業銀行的 Daniel Djurberg 來回答。

Two questions, if I may. And starting -- coming back to the market recovery and the North America again. Would it be fair to assume that this recovery that you anticipate will come back a bit earlier for some of your peers, including your neighbor issuing a profit warning today. And is this because of it that you have more wins into the urban areas versus the rural areas that might come a bit later?

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。然後開始——再次回到市場復甦和北美。可以公平地假設，對於您的一些同行（包括您的鄰居今天發布的盈利預警）來說，您預期的複蘇會提前一點回來嗎？是否正因為如此，您在城市地區獲得的勝利比可能晚一點的農村地區獲得的勝利更多？

Börje?

伯傑？

I think you're better off asking our customers about that. The way -- I mean, we -- I think we started to talk about this situation in North America already in the end of last year. So it's developing a bit like we have predicted and actually assumed. And that's why we said also early on that we need to take the cost items -- the actions on the cost side. So we have tried to -- not predict, this is a bit to exaggerate, but at least plan for this type of market situation we're seeing in North America.

我認為你最好向我們的客戶詢問這一點。我的意思是，我們——我想我們在去年年底就已經開始討論北美的這種情況了。所以它的發展有點像我們預測和實際假設的那樣。這就是為什麼我們很早就說過，我們需要採取成本項目——成本方面的行動。因此，我們試圖——不是預測，這有點誇張，但至少為我們在北美看到的這種市場情況做好了計劃。

Then I would also say, of course, they are going to -- they have built out networks in urban areas first. But I would also say that's where traffic growth is the fastest as well. So how that is going to ultimately pan out, I think that's a bit difficult to predict. But what we see, and that's what gives me comfort, is that there is a need for network capacity.

然後我還要說，當然，他們會——他們首先在城市地區建立了網絡。但我還要說，這也是流量增長最快的地方。所以最終結果如何，我認為這有點難以預測。但我們看到的是對網絡容量的需求，這讓我感到安慰。

There is also a need to deal with the energy cost challenges that comes out. Simply you need more modern equipment to lower your energy bills for the operator. You will need more -- newer equipment to deal with the CO2 challenges and the CO2 commitments.

還需要應對隨之而來的能源成本挑戰。簡而言之，您需要更現代化的設備來降低運營商的能源費用。您將需要更多更新的設備來應對二氧化碳挑戰和二氧化碳承諾。

So ultimately, when I put that together, it gives me comfort that it will come back. If you then extrapolate to historic experience, we've seen this happen in the past. It's been tough and then a very quick recovery.

所以最終，當我把它們放在一起時，它給了我安慰，它會回來。如果你推斷歷史經驗，我們過去已經看到過這種情況發生。這很艱難，然後恢復得很快。

So we -- does the future always look like the past? No, it doesn't. But at least when you put all of those factors together, it's a reasonable assumption that we said already in the end of last year that we would see a recovery during the second half. And that's what we think is still a reasonable assessment.

那麼我們——未來總是和過去一樣嗎？不，事實並非如此。但至少當你把所有這些因素放在一起時，我們在去年年底就已經說過，我們將在下半年看到經濟復甦，這是一個合理的假設。我們認為這仍然是一個合理的評估。

Then does it look the same for our competitor or not? I mean I don't know their business mix. I don't know their situation. So I'll let them speak for that themselves. But from my point of view, we saw this coming and plan for it.

那麼我們的競爭對手看起來是否一樣呢？我的意思是我不知道他們的業務組合。我不知道他們的情況。所以我會讓他們自己說話。但從我的角度來看，我們看到了這種情況的發生並為此制定了計劃。

Fair enough, I agree there. And a question also, if I may, coming back to the Enterprise. And you talked about the Open Gateway initiative with your quality on demand that you showcased in Barcelona. Is it -- have you come any further in terms of monetization and the revenue models on both things and the progress there? If you could be a little bit more specific.

公平地說，我同意這一點。還有一個問題，請允許我回到企業號。您還談到了開放網關計劃以及您在巴塞羅那展示的按需質量。在貨幣化和收入模式以及進展方面，您是否取得了進一步的進展？如果你能說得更具體一點的話。

Yes. We continue the very deep engagement with a number of front-runner customers around the world. So we work very intensively on that. What is -- call it, one of the things that needs to happen is we need to have an abstraction layer in the network that basically allows a CPaaS to call up functionalities from the network.

是的。我們繼續與世界各地的許多領先客戶進行非常深入的合作。所以我們在這方面非常努力。所謂的，需要發生的事情之一是我們需要在網絡中有一個抽象層，基本上允許 CPaaS 從網絡調用功能。

And that is not a surprise. So that's -- but that's where we have a lot of work to be done. And we continue that work and that's why when we'll get the first revenues, we -- I think we have said that we should have a network API more in the market by year-end. That still would be my best estimate. Will it be Q4? Hopefully. But it could, of course, slip into early next year. But that's the time frame we're working on.

這並不奇怪。這就是——但這就是我們還有很多工作要做的地方。我們會繼續這項工作，這就是為什麼當我們獲得第一筆收入時，我們——我想我們已經說過，我們應該在年底前在市場上擁有更多的網絡 API。這仍然是我最好的估計。會是第四季度嗎？希望。但當然，它可能會推遲到明年初。但這就是我們正在研究的時間框架。

And it's a lot of groundwork that needs to happen here before we are at the situation of creating a launch. But we'll hopefully here going to come back and talk much more in detail about this towards the end of the year.

在我們準備發布之前，需要做很多基礎工作。但我們希望能在今年年底回來更詳細地討論這個問題。

Thanks, Börje. Thank you, Daniel. So we are actually now moving into the last question of this Q&A session and that question is from Sandeep Deshpande at JPMorgan.

謝謝，伯傑。謝謝你，丹尼爾。所以我們現在實際上進入了本次問答環節的最後一個問題，該問題來自摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

We can hear you.

我們能聽到你的聲音。

My question is, Börje, you talked about the buildup into an improvement in sales. And one of the points you made on the buildup of improvement is that there will need to be further densification of the base stations. Given that we are seeing that the U.S. telcos are cutting spending at the moment, have you had conversations with them that gives you any confidence that they're going to actually densify their 5G cells going forward?

我的問題是，Börje，您談到了銷售改善的積累。您在改進方面提出的觀點之一是，基站需要進一步密集化。鑑於我們看到美國電信公司目前正在削減開支，您是否與他們進行過交談，讓您相信他們未來將真正加強 5G 蜂窩網絡的密度？

And then I have one more quick follow-up on the Software business.

然後我對軟件業務進行了快速跟進。

I'm not going to go into the details about the customer engagements. But what we see is we are -- an increasing amount of discussions is on the network quality and the need for network quality. And that is what gives me the comfort that at some point in time here, we will see that recovery coming back.

我不會詳細討論客戶參與的細節。但我們看到的是——越來越多的討論是關於網絡質量和對網絡質量的需求。這讓我感到安慰，因為在某個時間點，我們將看到經濟復甦。

And in reality, it's back to consumer satisfaction. The consumer, the user. And we often think about it as a device for a smartphone. But the reality is in the future will be many new type of applications. Enterprise applications. If it is AI use cases, they will all require connectivity and reliable -- always available connectivity. So we see quite a lot of use cases here that will drive network traffic.

事實上，這又回到了消費者滿意度。消費者，用戶。我們經常將其視為智能手機的設備。但現實是未來將會出現許多新型應用。企業應用程序。如果是人工智能用例，它們都將需要連接性和可靠的、始終可用的連接性。因此，我們在這裡看到很多將推動網絡流量的用例。

So I think it is here. We're in a phase where, of course, if you're a customer, you're facing uncertainty right now. You're going to adjust accordingly. But I'm also convinced that at the end of the day, the end user will need a certain service and that's what's going to create the market.

所以我認為它就在這裡。當然，我們正處於一個階段，如果您是客戶，您現在就面臨著不確定性。你要做出相應的調整。但我也相信，最終用戶將需要某種服務，而這將創造市場。

Is it uncomfortable now? Yes, it is uncertain, right? And I think it's fair to say that. But the reality is connectivity is a need. So if you go today to a sporting event, I don't -- as far as I know, in many parts of the world, I cannot upload a picture because it's simply capacity constraints. So we need to put more capacity in stadiums, more capacity indoors, in shopping malls, in office buildings, et cetera. Those are massive use cases that will be deployed over the coming several years. And they will be needed in order to digitalize society, digitalize enterprises and further digitalize the consumer.

現在不舒服嗎？是的，它是不確定的，對嗎？我認為這樣說是公平的。但現實是互聯互通是一種需求。因此，如果你今天去觀看體育賽事，據我所知，在世界許多地方，我無法上傳照片，因為這只是容量限制。因此，我們需要在體育場館、室內、購物中心、辦公樓等場所增加容量。這些都是將在未來幾年內部署的大量用例。社會數字化、企業數字化以及消費者進一步數字化都需要它們。

You had a final sort of Software question, Sandeep, as well.

Sandeep，您還有最後一個軟件問題。

Yes. Just a quick follow-up on your Software and Services business. Where are we now in terms of the restructuring? I mean, you've taken some charges in the first half of the year. You've seen some improvements in terms of the earnings in that business. Have all the actions being taken and the results waiting to be seen? Or are there certain more results -- I mean, are there certain more actions need to be taken in the second half to reach your goals there?

是的。只是快速跟進您的軟件和服務業務。就重組而言，我們現在處於什麼位置？我的意思是，你在今年上半年收取了一些費用。您已經看到該業務的收入有所改善。所有正在採取的行動和結果都在等待觀察嗎？或者是否有更多的結果——我的意思是，下半年是否需要採取更多的行動才能實現你的目標？

Yes. Sandeep, I can say, of course, actions are ongoing. We have exited from some subscale businesses, we talked about that before. We took some charges for that earlier. We are focusing on automating service delivery. We are taking out costs as part of the overall cost reduction effort. And we have commercial discipline to make sure that the new contracts are well scoped and well priced.

是的。桑迪普，我當然可以說，行動正在進行中。我們已經退出了一些規模較小的業務，我們之前談過這一點。我們早些時候為此收取了一些費用。我們專注於自動化服務交付。我們正在削減成本，作為總體成本削減工作的一部分。我們有商業紀律，以確保新合同範圍明確且價格合理。

And all of that is happening, of course, continuously. But we see clearly that breakeven, as we've had as a target or commitment for the year, is what we reach. And we say, as you saw, at least breakeven for 2023. Then, of course, 2024, we expect to see improved profitability coming out of all of these actions that the current leadership there in Cloud Software and Services are undertaking.

當然，所有這一切都在持續發生。但我們清楚地看到，正如我們今年的目標或承諾一樣，我們已經實現了盈虧平衡。正如您所看到的，我們說，至少在 2023 年實現收支平衡。當然，到 2024 年，我們預計雲軟件和服務領域當前領導者正在採取的所有這些行動將提高盈利能力。

Thank you, Sandeep. And thank you, Carl, and thank you, Börje. So we're coming to the end to this Q&A session. So I would like to thank you all for the good questions. And for those who are going on summer vacation, I wish you all a nice vacation, and we'll see each other again during autumn. So thank you, and goodbye.

謝謝你，桑迪普。謝謝你，卡爾，謝謝你，伯傑。我們的問答環節即將結束。所以我要感謝大家提出的好問題。對於那些即將放暑假的人，我祝你們假期愉快，我們將在秋天再次相見。所以謝謝你，再見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。