雪佛龍 (CVX) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to Chevron's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference call over to General Manager of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Jake Spiering. Please go ahead.

早安.我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。歡迎參加雪佛龍 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。我現在將電話會議轉交給雪佛龍公司投資人關係總經理傑克‧斯皮林先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Katie. Welcome to Chevron's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. I'm Jake Spiering, General Manager of Investor Relations. Our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth; and CFO, Pierre Breber, are on the call with me today. We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron's website.

謝謝你，凱蒂。歡迎參加雪佛龍 2023 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。我是投資人關係總經理傑克‧斯皮林。我們的董事長兼執行長 Mike Wirth；財務長 Pierre Breber 今天與我通話。我們將參考雪佛龍網站上提供的幻燈片和準備好的評論。

Before we begin, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary statement on Slide 2.

在開始之前，請注意，本簡報包含估計、預測和其他前瞻性陳述。請查看投影片 2 上的警告聲明。

Now I will turn it over to Mike.

現在我將把它交給麥克。

Thanks, Jake. I want to start by acknowledging the tragic events in the Middle East. We're deeply saddened by the loss of life, and our hearts go out to those affected by the war. We continue to prioritize the safety and well-being of our employees and their families and the safe delivery of natural gas.

謝謝，傑克。首先我要承認中東發生的悲慘事件。我們對生命的逝去深感悲痛，我們的心與那些受戰爭影響的人同在。我們繼續優先考慮員工及其家人的安全和福祉以及天然氣的安全輸送。

Earlier this week, we announced that Chevron entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Hess Corporation. We expect this transaction to close in the first half of 2024. And we look forward to providing updates in the future.

本週早些時候，我們宣布雪佛龍簽署了收購赫斯的最終協議。我們預計這筆交易將於 2024 年上半年完成。我們期待在未來提供更新。

Now turning to the third quarter. We continued to make progress on our objective to safely deliver higher returns and lower carbon by: returning more than $5 billion to shareholders for the sixth consecutive quarter and delivering ROCE greater than 12% for the ninth consecutive quarter; and investing in traditional energy by closing the PDC Energy acquisition and in new energies by acquiring a majority stake in a green hydrogen production and storage hub in Utah.

現在轉向第三季。我們繼續在安全地實現更高回報和低碳的目標上取得進展：連續第六個季度向股東返還超過 50 億美元，並連續第九個季度實現 ROCE 超過 12%；透過完成對 PDC Energy 的收購來投資傳統能源，並透過收購猶他州綠色氫生產和儲存中心的多數股權來投資新能源。

And earlier this month, we released our Climate Change Resilience Report, which details our approach, actions and progress in reducing carbon intensity and growing new, lower carbon businesses. I encourage everyone to read the report available on chevron.com.

本月早些時候，我們發布了《氣候變遷韌性報告》，其中詳細介紹了我們在降低碳強度和發展新的低碳業務方面的方法、行動和進展。我鼓勵大家閱讀 chevron.com 上提供的報告。

At TCO, base business continues to deliver good results. The planned turnaround was completed ahead of schedule. The reservoir is performing well and the plant remains full. We expect a higher dividend in the fourth quarter.

TCO 的基礎業務持續取得良好業績。計劃的周轉提前完成。水庫運作良好，工廠保持滿水狀態。我們預計第四季股息將更高。

TCO has achieved mechanical completion at the Future Growth Project. Following slower-than-expected commissioning progress, we conducted an independent cost and schedule review. We now forecast the Wellhead Pressure Management Project, which is the field conversion from high pressure to low pressure, to begin startup in the first half of 2024 and to continue through two major train turnarounds. FGP is expected to start up in the first half of 2025 and ramp to full production within 3 months. Total project cost is expected to increase between 3% and 5%.

TCO 已實現未來成長項目的機械完工。由於調試進度慢於預期，我們進行了獨立的成本和進度審查。我們現在預測井口壓力管理專案（即從高壓到低壓的現場轉換）將於 2024 年上半年開始啟動，並繼續經歷兩次主要的列車週轉。 FGP預計將於2025年上半年啟動，並在3個月內全面投產。項目總成本預計將增加 3% 至 5%。

TCO production on a 100% basis in 2024 is forecasted to be about 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day lower than 2023 due to a heavier turnaround schedule and planned downtime for WPMP conversions. TCO is expected to reach greater than 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 when FGP fully ramps up. Free cash flow from TCO in 2025 is expected to be more than $4 billion. Chevron's share at $60 Brent, down about $1 billion from our prior estimate. Our focus remains on safe and reliable commissioning and start-up.

由於週轉時間表較重以及 WPMP 轉換的計劃停機時間，預計 2024 年的 TCO 產量（以 100% 計算）將比 2023 年減少約 50,000 桶油當量/日。到 2025 年，當 FGP 全面提高時，TCO 預計將達到每天 100 萬桶油當量以上。 2025 年 TCO 的自由現金流預計將超過 40 億美元。雪佛龍的布蘭特原油價格為 60 美元，比我們先前的估計下降了約 10 億美元。我們的重點仍然是安全可靠的調試和啟動。

I'll now turn it over to Pierre to discuss the financials.

我現在將把它交給皮埃爾討論財務問題。

Thanks, Mike. We delivered another quarter with strong earnings, cash flow and ROCE. This quarter's results included two special items: a one-time tax benefit of $560 million in Nigeria and pension settlement costs of $40 million. Foreign currency benefits were $285 million. The appendix of this presentation contains a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

謝謝，麥克。我們又一個季度實現了強勁的利潤、現金流和 ROCE。本季的業績包括兩項特殊項目：尼日利亞 5.6 億美元的一次性稅收優惠和 4,000 萬美元的退休金結算成本。外幣福利為 2.85 億美元。本簡報的附錄包含非公認會計原則措施的調節表。

Organic CapEx this quarter included about $200 million for PDC legacy operations after closing in August. Our balance sheet remains strong, ending the quarter with a net debt ratio in the single digits.

本季的有機資本支出包括約 2 億美元用於 8 月關閉後的 PDC 遺留業務。我們的資產負債表仍然強勁，本季結束時淨負債比率為個位數。

Another quarter of solid cash flow enabled us to deliver on all of our financial priorities. Despite restrictions during the PDC transaction, we were able to repurchase well over $3 billion in Chevron shares. Cash used to reduce debt was primarily related to PDC's higher cost borrowing. Cash balances ended the quarter near $6 billion, a little above what's needed to run our businesses.

另外四分之一的穩定現金流使我們能夠實現所有財務優先事項。儘管 PDC 交易期間受到限制，我們仍能夠回購價值超過 30 億美元的雪佛龍股票。用於減少債務的現金主要與 PDC 較高的借貸成本有關。本季末現金餘額接近 60 億美元，略高於我們業務營運所需的水平。

Adjusted third quarter earnings were down $5.1 billion versus the same quarter last year. Adjusted upstream earnings were lower mainly due to realizations and negative timing effects. Higher unfavorable discrete tax charges and exploration expenses were partly offset by lower DD&A, Venezuela cash recoveries and other favorable items. Adjusted downstream earnings decreased primarily due to a negative swing in timing effects and lower marketing margins.

調整後的第三季收益比去年同期下降了 51 億美元。調整後的上游收益較低，主要是由於變現和負面時間效應。較高的不利離散稅費和勘探費用被較低的 DD&A、委內瑞拉現金回收和其他有利項目部分抵消。調整後的下游收益下降主要是由於時間效應的負面波動和行銷利潤率的下降。

Compared with the last quarter, adjusted earnings were down just over $50 million. Adjusted upstream earnings were roughly flat as higher prices and volumes were offset by unfavorable discrete tax charges and negative timing effects due to the rise in prices. DD&A and OpEx were both higher in part due to the addition of PDC legacy assets for 2 months in the quarter.

與上一季相比，調整後收益下降略高於 5,000 萬美元。調整後的上游收益大致持平，因為較高的價格和產量被不利的離散稅收費用和價格上漲帶來的負面時間效應所抵消。 DD&A 和營運支出均較高，部分原因是本季 2 個月增加了 PDC 遺留資產。

Adjusted downstream earnings increased primarily due to higher refining margins, partially offset by unfavorable timing effects. All other was down on unfavorable tax items and decreased interest income in line with lower cash balances.

調整後的下游收益增加主要是由於煉油利潤率提高，但部分被不利的時機效應所抵消。其他所有業務均因不利的稅收項目而下降，利息收入也因現金餘額減少而減少。

Third quarter oil equivalent production was up 6% over last quarter primarily due to 2 months of legacy PDC production. This was partly offset by a planned turnaround at TCO and pit stop at Gorgon. The Permian, excluding legacy PDC, was down 2% due to lower non-operated production. Company-operated production was flat with the second quarter.

第三季石油當量產量比上季成長 6%，主要是由於 2 個月的傳統 PDC 產量。這部分被 TCO 的計劃週轉和 Gorgon 的進站所抵消。由於非作業產量下降，二疊紀盆地（不包括傳統的 PDC）產量下降了 2%。公司經營產量與第二季持平。

Now looking ahead, our fourth quarter estimate for turnarounds and downtime includes approximately 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for Tamar. We anticipate affiliate dividends in the fourth quarter to be largely from TCO. As a reminder, we recorded a 15% withholding tax on TCO dividends.

現在展望未來，我們對第四季度週轉和停機時間的估計包括添馬艦每天約 30,000 桶石油當量。我們預計第四季度的附屬股息將主要來自 TCO。提醒一下，我們對 TCO 股息徵收 15% 的預扣稅。

Due to the pending transaction with Hess, share repurchases will be restricted pursuant to SEC regulations. Chevron expects share repurchases in the fourth quarter to be around $3 billion, plus or minus 20%, depending primarily on the timing of the Hess definitive proxy statement mailing.

由於與 Hess 的交易尚未完成，根據 SEC 規定，股票回購將受到限制。雪佛龍預計第四季的股票回購額約為 30 億美元，上下浮動 20%，這主要取決於赫斯最終委託書郵寄的時間。

In summary, our actions and performance show that Chevron keeps delivering strong results. With a strategy that remains clear and consistent, we're well positioned to deliver value to our shareholders in any environment.

總之，我們的行動和業績顯示雪佛龍不斷取得強勁的業績。憑藉著清晰一致的策略，我們能夠在任何環境下為股東創造價值。

With that, I'll turn it back to Jake.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給傑克。

That concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take your questions. (Operator Instructions) Katie, please open the lines.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在準備好回答您的問題。 （接線員指示）凱蒂，請接通線路。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們將接受富國銀行的 Roger Read 提出的第一個問題。

I was hoping we could dig into the international upstream, just a little short on what we were expecting this quarter, what some of the factors were, other than the ones called out, the FX issue and the tax benefit in Nigeria.

我希望我們能夠深入研究國際上游的情況，並稍微了解我們對本季的預期，除了提到的因素之外，還有一些因素，即外匯問題和尼日利亞的稅收優惠。

Yes, Roger. Look, I'll let Pierre cover this in a little more detail, but there's -- I recognize this quarter was a tough one to model. And there's pretty material or significant noncash charges. Timing effects, primarily inventory costs, we see with rising prices some tax reserves and charges for legal abandonment and other things and then some lower realizations with your mix and the lag effect in some of our LNG pricing.

是的，羅傑。聽著，我會讓皮埃爾更詳細地介紹這一點，但我認識到這個季度是一個很難建模的季度。還有相當多的物質或大量非現金費用。時間效應，主要是庫存成本，我們看到隨著價格上漲，一些稅收儲備和合法廢棄費用等，然後您的組合和我們的一些液化天然氣定價中的滯後效應導致一些較低的實現。

On timing and inventory costs in particular, on period-to-period comparisons where we had a prior period, whether it was last quarter or the same quarter last year, where prices were coming down and then in the current period, we see prices strengthening significantly, you really get pretty significant deltas on the way we cost inventory. And if you go back to the, I think, the first quarter of '22, we had some similar dynamics.

特別是在時間和庫存成本方面，在我們前期的比較中，無論是上個季度還是去年同期，價格都在下降，然後在本期，我們看到價格走強值得注意的是，我們在庫存成本方面確實獲得了相當大的增量。如果你回顧 22 年第一季度，我們也有一些類似的動態。

So anyway, that's kind of high level on it. Pierre, maybe you can talk a little bit more about the upstream and international upstream in particular.

無論如何，這已經是一個很高的水平了。皮埃爾，也許你可以多談談上游，特別是國際上游。

Yes, it's a subset of what you talked to, Mike, Roger. So timing effects, the largest timing effects this quarter were on cargoes on the water. So you'll see that primarily in the international upstream, international downstream. Timing effects are in three buckets. You have paper mark-to-market, you have on-the-water inventory and then you have on-land inventory.

是的，這是你們談話的一部分，麥克，羅傑。因此，時間效應，本季最大的時間效應是水上貨物。所以你會看到這主要發生在國際上游、國際下游。時間效應分為三個部分。你有紙質市場庫存，你有水上庫存，然後你有陸上庫存。

So it's really cargoes on the water that drive most of the effect, cargoes that are in transit and cross over quarterly periods. And so that's what the trajectory of prices, as Mike indicated, is really what drives that. Mike talked about abandonment estimate. So those will show up in depreciation. And we saw that in the international upstream.

因此，真正造成大部分影響的是水上貨物、運輸中的貨物以及跨越季度的貨物。正如麥克所指出的，這就是價格軌蹟的真正推動因素。麥克談到了放棄估計。因此，這些將顯示在折舊中。我們在國際上游看到了這一點。

And then in LNG, you see some lag pricing. We also saw some mix between contract cargoes and spot cargoes on LNG. And on the liquid side, we saw some mix effects. So it's a bit of where the liftings are relative to production in terms of tax jurisdictions, the types of products, how they trade in terms of discounts to Brent. So there were a number of items in international upstream. And you could follow up, Roger, with Jake and cover any more details.

然後在液化天然氣方面，您會看到一些滯後定價。我們也看到液化天然氣合約貨物和現貨貨物之間存在一些混合。在液體方面，我們看到了一些混合效應。因此，從稅收管轄區、產品類型以及布蘭特原油折扣的交易方式來看，產量的提昇在一定程度上與生產有關。所以國際上游有很多專案。羅傑，你可以跟進傑克並涵蓋更多細節。

I'll sum it up as messy. I appreciate it.

我將其總結為混亂。我很感激。

[We'll check next quarter] every now and again. Go ahead, Katie.

[我們將在下個季度檢查]時不時地。來吧，凱蒂。

We'll take our next question from Josh Silverstein with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀集團的喬許‧西爾弗斯坦 (Josh Silverstein) 提出的下一個問題。

On the TCO, you had mentioned that in 2025, you expect the cash flow to be about $1 billion lower, around $4 billion versus $5 billion previously. Is that just due to the project delays? Or is there higher cost estimates now in that, so it would be lower distributions from there? Or is there something else that's driving that?

關於 TCO，您曾提到，到 2025 年，您預計現金流量將減少約 10 億美元，約 40 億美元，而之前為 50 億美元。這僅僅是因為工程延誤嗎？或者現在的成本估算是否更高，因此分配會更低？或者還有什麼其他因素在推動這一點？

Yes. So Josh, there's going to be some more capital, we said 3% to 5%. So think about around $1 billion Chevron share over '24 and '25, probably a little more weighted to '24 than '25. Cash flow from the operations will be lower by about $1.5 billion at $60 Brent in total over the next 2 years really due to the delay in the project. So it's equivalent to about 50,000 barrels a day in net production in each of those years.

是的。所以喬什，將會有更多的資本，我們說 3% 到 5%。因此，請考慮雪佛龍在 24 年和 25 年所佔的約 10 億美元份額，可能對 24 年的權重比對 25 年的權重稍大一些。由於專案的推遲，未來 2 年營運現金流將減少約 15 億美元（布蘭特原油價格為 60 美元）。因此，這相當於這些年份每天的淨產量約為 50,000 桶。

So in total, we expect our share of dividends to be lower by about $2.5 billion across '24 and '25 from the prior guidance. And so it's a combination of those things. And so we had previously guided to above $5 billion. We're now seeing above $4 billion and a little more of that coming from production and cash flow from ops as opposed to CapEx.

因此，總的來說，我們預計 24 年和 25 年期間我們的股息份額將比先前的指導減少約 25 億美元。所以它是這些東西的組合。因此我們先前的目標是超過 50 億美元。我們現在看到超過 40 億美元，其中更多來自營運的生產和現金流，而不是資本支出。

And the delay in WPMP doesn't have any impact really because there was no incremental production. So the effects that Mike was talking about in production are really from the delay in the start-up of FGP, which obviously adds incremental production.

WPMP 的延遲實際上並沒有任何影響，因為沒有增量生產。所以麥克所說的生產影響實際上是來自 FGP 啟動的延遲，這顯然增加了增量生產。

We'll go next to Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將討論高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

I just want to stay on the TCO question. As you think about, Mike, the biggest gating factors to getting from here to completion around FGP, just walk us through the landscape and the key milestones that you'll be watching and we should be watching to give us conviction that the project is coming into service.

我只想繼續討論 TCO 問題。麥克，正如您所想，從這裡到完成 FGP 的最大限制因素，請帶我們了解一下您將要關注的情況和關鍵里程碑，我們應該關注，以使我們確信該項目即將到來投入使用。

Yes. So the main message here, Neil, is as we completed both WPMP and then mechanical completion of FGP and we've begun to get deep into the commissioning, we've, I think, previously mentioned we worked with some technical issues with our utility systems. And as we did that and we saw some of these impacts, we commissioned an independent cost and schedule review off cycle. We normally do these annually, but we didn't want to wait.

是的。因此，尼爾，這裡的主要訊息是，當我們完成 WPMP 和 FGP 的機械完成，並且我們已經開始深入調試時，我想，我們之前提到我們與我們的公用事業公司一起解決了一些技術問題系統。當我們這樣做時，我們看到了其中一些影響，我們委託進行獨立的成本和時間表審查。我們通常每年都會這樣做，但我們不想等待。

And so as we saw some of this evidence that things were going slower, there were some more discovery work, we sent in an independent team to give us kind of a cold eyes assessment on cost and schedule. And I think the main thing that I would distill that down to is the recommendations from that and that are embedded in our updated guidance today reflect a more conservative forecast of commissioning progress. And so we're assuming things will take longer than the prior plan.

因此，當我們看到一些證據表明事情進展緩慢時，我們需要進行更多的發現工作，我們派出了一個獨立團隊對成本和進度進行冷眼評估。我認為我要提煉的主要內容是從中提出的建議，這些建議反映在我們今天更新的指南中，反映了對調試進度的更保守的預測。因此我們假設事情會比之前的計劃花費更長的時間。

We're assuming we're going to have discovery items that tend to come up in complex projects like this. And in response, we've implemented some significant changes in terms of how we're approaching this. We've moved contract resources over from 3GI, which is a portion of the Future Growth Project, which is now completed and fully commissioned over onto the other commissioning work. So we've added contract resources there.

我們假設我們將擁有一個往往會出現在像這樣的複雜項目中的發現項目。作為回應，我們在處理這個問題的方式上實施了一些重大改變。我們已經將合約資源從 3GI 轉移過來，這是未來成長項目的一部分，該項目現已完成並完全委託給其他委託工作。所以我們在那裡添加了合約資源。

We brought in experienced turnaround and operations people that are very skilled in the discovery work, in managing through the restart of and operations of facilities now to help us with this. And then we've also added technical resources to address any unplanned discovery items that would come up. So we've had a significant change in our approach to this. We've got a more conservative guidance here that we're issuing now. And we'll continue to talk about this every quarter.

我們引進了經驗豐富的周轉和營運人員，他們在發現工作、管理設施的重啟和運作方面非常熟練，現在可以幫助我們實現這一目標。然後我們還添加了技術資源來解決任何可能出現的計劃外發現項目。因此，我們對此的方法進行了重大改變。我們現在發布了更保守的指導。我們將繼續每季討論這個問題。

I guess, the main things to look at here are we've got big compressor trains that will start up for pressure boost, which is a key driver of this high-pressure to low-pressure conversion. These are very large machines. And so those are key milestones. After that, we've got metering stations that are converted from high pressure or low pressure.

我想，這裡要關注的主要事情是我們擁有大型壓縮機組，它們將啟動增壓，這是高壓到低壓轉換的關鍵驅動力。這些都是非常大的機器。因此，這些都是關鍵的里程碑。之後，我們有了從高壓或低壓轉換而來的計量站。

And so over the next few quarters -- and there's, I think, 40-some-odd metering stations as you go out through the entire field. We've got these two big turnarounds that I've talked about. All of those are really key milestones that we'll be tracking very closely. And we'll update you on those as we go forward.

因此，在接下來的幾個季度中，我認為，當你穿過整個場地時，將會有 40 多個計量站。我們已經實現了我談到的這兩個重大轉變。所有這些都是我們將密切跟踪的真正重要的里程碑。隨著我們的進展，我們將向您通報最新情況。

We'll go next to Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們將採訪摩根士丹利的德文·麥克德莫特。

I wanted to just stick with upstream but actually ask about Venezuela. You've had some increase in production year-over-year, given the initial sanction relief. And there's obviously been some additional sanction relief announced just since the last quarterly call.

我只想繼續關注上游，但實際上詢問了委內瑞拉的情況。鑑於最初的製裁解除，你們的產量比去年同期有所增加。自上次季度電話會議以來，顯然還宣布了一些額外的製裁救濟措施。

I think you might have been on an interview this morning. You made some comments that you could see a sequential increase in production between now and year-end. I was wondering if you could just step back, talk through what impact this sanction relief has on your production profile and also willingness to invest in that region. And can you remind us how impactful Venezuela volumes are for your corporate cash flow?

我想你今天早上可能正在接受採訪。您發表了一些評論，稱從現在到年底，產量可能會持續增加。我想知道您是否可以退後一步，談談這次製裁解除對您的生產狀況以及在該地區投資的意願有何影響。您能否提醒我們委內瑞拉的交易量對您的企業現金流有多少影響？

Sure. So yes, we have seen some action now from the U.S. government. We had been previously operating under an OFAC license, which was modified at the beginning of this year, a general license. There's some specific licenses that go with that, that define the terms under which we can operate. The recent action in the new general license issued by OFAC really kind of opens up operating room for others more so than it does for us. We already -- it doesn't materially change our circumstances here.

當然。所以，是的，我們現在已經看到美國政府採取了一些行動。我們之前一直在 OFAC 許可證下運營，今年年初修改為一般許可證。有一些與之相關的特定許可證，定義了我們可以運作的條款。 OFAC 頒發的新通用許可證最近採取的行動確實為其他人打開了操作空間，而不是為我們打開了操作空間。我們已經——這並沒有實質地改變我們這裡的情況。

And so I think what you'll see is some more people lifting crude, bring it to the -- you'll see more crude flow to the U.S. I don't think -- the impact on our operations really is not particularly significant. We are up to something around 130,000 barrels a day from maybe 60,000 barrels a day earlier this year. We still think we can get to 150,000 or so by year-end. So we are seeing improvements and expect there's some more that we can see through the balance of the year.

因此，我認為你會看到更多的人提升原油，將其帶到 - 你會看到更多的原油流向美國，我不認為 - 對我們運營的影響實際上並不是特別重大。我們將產量從今年稍早的每天 6 萬桶提高到了 13 萬桶左右。我們仍然認為到年底我們可以達到 15 萬左右。因此，我們看到了一些改進，並期望在今年剩餘的時間裡我們能看到更多的改進。

And that's driving -- the cash from that is going to pay legitimate operating expenses, tax and royalties, recover some past dues that we are owed. And we're really working on what I would call pretty straightforward field maintenance and things to restore production that aren't particularly long cycle or capital-intensive and staying within the kind of cash that's being generated from those sales in order to fund that.

這就是推動力——由此產生的現金將用於支付合法的營運費用、稅收和特許權使用費，並收回我們所欠的一些逾期款項。我們確實正在致力於我所說的非常簡單的現場維護和恢復生產的工作，這些工作的周期不是特別長，也不是資本密集型的​​​​，並且保持在從這些銷售中產生的現金範圍內，以便為其提供資金。

I would expect that's the posture we'll remain in for a while here until we see how the longer-term sanctions environment plays out, the political situation in the country with elections and the like and continue to make progress on recovery of the past dues that I mentioned. And so not a lot of change, I guess, I would say, from our point of view. Pierre, maybe you want to comment on the cash and production.

我預計我們將在一段時間內保持這種姿態，直到我們看到長期制裁環境如何發揮作用、該國的選舉等政治局勢，並繼續在收回過去的會費方面取得進展我提到過。因此，從我們的角度來看，我想，我想說，變化不大。皮埃爾，也許你想評論一下現金和產量。

Yes. Consistent with what Mike just said, we're continuing to do cost affiliate accounting, which means we are not -- we don't record production or reserves, right? So that's not reflected in our numbers. And we only record earnings when we receive cash. So we're not -- we're recording a proportionate share of equity earnings but only what we actually receive in cash. And that's something that we'll continue to look at.

是的。與麥克剛才所說的一致，我們將繼續進行成本附屬會計，這意味著我們不記錄產量或儲量，對嗎？所以這沒有反映在我們的數字上。我們只有在收到現金時才記錄收入。所以我們不是——我們記錄的是股權收益的比例份額，而只是我們實際收到的現金。我們將繼續關注這一點。

And as Mike said, depending on all those potential triggers down the road, elections and such, we could go back to equity accounting at some point in time. But we have not made that decision yet. In terms of cash flow, it's about 1% of our cash flow. So it's modest, of course. But it's more than it was before. And so as Mike said, operations there are continuing well. And we're getting a little bit of cash. And we'll just see where it goes from here.

正如麥克所說，根據未來所有潛在的觸發因素、選舉等，我們可能會在某個時間點回到權益會計。但我們還沒有做出這個決定。就現金流而言，大約占我們現金流的1%。所以這當然是謙虛的。但比以前多了。正如麥克所說，那裡的運作進展順利。我們得到了一點現金。我們將看看它從這裡走向何方。

We'll go next to Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

接下來我們將與 RBC 一起前往 Biraj Borkhataria。

I'm sure you get a few more on [TCO]. I just want to ask about the Permian. Last quarter, you gave some very helpful data points on well productivity this year. I was wondering, particularly for the New Mexico side, if you had any incremental comments for wells driven in the third quarter. Because I know it was a pretty small sample size of POPs in the first half of the year. So any comments there would be helpful.

我確信您對 [TCO] 有了更多了解。我只是想問二疊紀。上個季度，您提供了一些有關今年油井生產率的非常有用的數據點。我想知道，特別是新墨西哥方面，您對第三季打井是否有任何增量評論。因為我知道今年上半年持久性有機污染物的樣本數相當小。所以任何評論都會有幫助。

Yes. And I might give you some kind of broader commentary on Permian performance as well. Overall, production was down just a little bit, about 2% in the quarter. That was entirely driven by non-operated joint ventures. And primarily, a couple of the operators had delays in putting wells online due to frac hits and some other factors. There was also some takeaway capacity on the Permian highway that -- constraints that resulted in some unplanned downtime.

是的。我也可能會給你一些關於二疊紀表現的更廣泛的評論。總體而言，本季產量略有下降，約 2%。這完全是由非經營性合資企業推動的。主要是，由於壓裂和其他一些因素，一些業者推遲了油井上線。二疊紀高速公路上也有一些外賣能力——限制導致了一些計劃外的停機。

So co-op production in the third quarter was essentially flat from the prior quarter, which is what we had guided to. And that's despite having some wells that were choked back due to some surface constraints. In one development area, we're seeing higher-than-expected CO2 content in the gas and others in the area are as well. So we've got third-party handling and process facilities that are constrained by that and can't handle all the CO2. So we're choking wells back.

因此，第三季的合作社產量與上一季基本持平，這正是我們的指導方針。儘管有一些井由於地面限製而被堵塞。在一個開發區域，我們發現天然氣中的二氧化碳含量高於預期，該區域的其他區域也是如此。因此，我們的第三方處理和加工設施受到限制，無法處理所有二氧化碳。所以我們正在堵塞油井。

There's a new federal regulation that I won't get into the details. But it affects how we meter production. And it prevents co-mingling. And so we've got wells choked back until we can get some new meters in place. And then we've got some produced water limits that have come into effect in some areas. So there's a number of things that are not indicative of well performance, but other surface realities that we're working our way through that are impacting co-op production a little bit.

有一項新的聯邦法規，我不會詳細介紹。但這會影響我們計量生產的方式。它可以防止混合。因此，我們已經封鎖了油井，直到我們能夠安裝一些新的儀表。然後，我們在某些​​地區實施了一些採出水限制。因此，有很多事情並沒有表明表現良好，但我們正在努力解決的其他表面現實正在對合作社的生產產生一些影響。

In New Mexico, you're right. We got more POPs in the second half of the year. We've POP-ed about 60% of the planned wells in New Mexico. So the balance, almost half, come on in the fourth quarter. POP performance has generally been strong. Some of those wells are hit by the facility constraints that I've talked about.

在新墨西哥州，你是對的。下半年我們收到了更多的 POP。我們已經對新墨西哥州約 60% 的計畫油井進行了 POP 改造。因此，幾乎一半的餘額是在第四季實現的。 POP 表現普遍強勁。其中一些井受到我提到的設施限制的影響。

But overall, well performance is aligned with our type curve expectations. I think when we get to the fourth quarter call, Biraj, we'll come back with some more detail on type curves. We'll have enough of them online. We'll have enough months that we can start to give you some of the same kind of evidence that we did last quarter to show you the performance.

但整體而言，油井表現符合我們的類型曲線預期。我認為，當我們進行第四季度電話會議時，Biraj，我們會提供有關類型曲線的更多詳細資訊。我們將在網路上擁有足夠的內容。我們將有足夠的時間，可以開始向您提供一些與上個季度相同的證據，以向您展示業績。

We'll go next to Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將與沃爾夫研究中心的薩姆·馬戈林進行對話。

Maybe we'll stick with the U.S. and ask about just the U.S. upstream CapEx number. There's a lot of moving parts in here. You've got incorporation of PDC. You have kind of GOM projects and Ballymore coming into play, inflation and then timing effects that you alluded to.

也許我們會堅持選擇美國，只詢問美國上游資本支出數據。這裡有很多活動部件。您已經合併了 PDC。 GOM 專案和 Ballymore 正在發揮作用，通貨膨脹以及您提到的時間效應。

I guess, when you think about this quarter's U.S. upstream capital, how would you characterize it just overall? Would you say it's sort of on plan or like overly influenced by any one of these factors that may or may not be mitigated over time?

我想，當您考慮本季美國上游資本時，您會如何整體描述它？您會說這是按計劃進行的，還是受到其中任何一個因素的過度影響，這些因素可能會或可能不會隨著時間的推移而減輕？

Yes. Sam, you're right. I mean, we are seeing pressure in the U.S. And I think we're probably going to end up higher than our budget as we end the year. PDC is being integrated into the factory pretty much as we expected. And so it's an increment because it wasn't in our original plan. But it's really not a driver of this. The big thing is we're seeing actually more feet drilled per rig and more completion feet than we had planned.

是的。山姆，你是對的。我的意思是，我們看到了美國的壓力，我認為到年底我們的預算可能會高於預算。 PDC 正像我們預期的那樣整合到工廠中。所以這是一個增量，因為它不在我們最初的計劃中。但這確實不是這個的驅動因素。最重要的是，我們實際上看到每台鑽機的鑽探英尺數和完井英尺數比我們計劃的要多。

And so the productivity of the primary development activity has continued to improve. But that means we spend more money on tubulars, on sand, on water than we had anticipated. So it's kind of a good news, but it brings with it some costs. We've got some long lead items, where we're seeing supply chain realities that say we need to place long lead orders earlier. So some things we otherwise would have ordered next year that we've actually moved ordering and initial payments on into this year. So there's some long lead dynamics going on.

因此，初級開發活動的生產力不斷提高。但這意味著我們在管道、沙子和水上花費的錢比我們預期的要多。所以這是一個好消息，但也帶來了一些成本。我們有一些長交貨期項目，我們看到供應鏈的現實表明我們需要更早下長交貨期訂單。因此，有些東西我們原本會在明年訂購，但實際上我們已經將訂購和首期付款轉移到了今年。因此，存在一些長期領先動態。

And then I mentioned earlier, produced water is becoming an issue, the reinjection of that and doing that in a way that minimizes the incidences of induced seismicity. So we've got some more produced water handling infrastructure spend. So I would say those are kind of the primary drivers. And that's pushing the Permian to be a little hot. Gulf of Mexico is pretty well right on plan. And so what you're seeing there is really a function of PDC, which is just an increment that's been added, and then some additional costs in the Permian program that we really hadn't anticipated as we went into the year.

我之前提到過，採出水正在成為一個問題，需要對其進行重新註入，並以盡量減少誘發地震發生率的方式進行注入。因此，我們有更多的採出水處理基礎設施支出。所以我想說這些是主要驅動因素。這使得二疊紀變得有點熱。墨西哥灣的計畫非常順利。所以你看到的實際上是 PDC 的一個功能，這只是一個增加的增量，然後是二疊紀計劃中的一些額外成本，這是我們進入這一年時確實沒有預料到的。

I'll just add. So if you take out inorganic, which is $600 million year-to-date, $400 million in the third quarter for -- primarily for ACES and the $200 million that we had for PDC in the third quarter, through third quarter year-to-date, we're about $200 million above the ratable budget. Of course, fourth quarter tends to be higher. So as Mike says, we'll likely end the year a little bit above budget.

我就補充一下。因此，如果你扣除今年迄今 6 億美元的無機業務、第三季的 4 億美元（主要用於 ACES）以及第三季度用於 PDC 的 2 億美元（截至今年第三季）截至目前，我們比應評預算高出約2 億美元。當然，第四季往往會更高。因此，正如麥克所說，我們今年的預算可能會略高於預算。

We'll go next to Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

接下來我們將與豐業銀行聯絡 Paul Cheng。

Can I go back to TCO? It's a little bit of the late stage for the cost increase and everything. I guess, the question is that, I mean, what have we learned from this process to ensure that your future project execution will become better and not facing the entire problem there?

我可以回到 TCO 嗎？對於成本增加等一切來說，現在已經是後期了。我想，問題是，我的意思是，我們從這個過程中學到了什麼，以確保您未來的專案執行會變得更好，而不是面臨整個問題？

I mean, it has been a challenging project all along, I think, to a number of different reasons. But quite frankly, that is a bit disappointing at this very last stage for the bit of the slip in the schedule and also the cost increase.

我的意思是，我認為，出於多種不同的原因，這一直是一個具有挑戰性的項目。但坦白說，在最後階段，由於時間表的一些延誤以及成本的增加，這有點令人失望。

Yes, Paul, thank you. And look, I share the sentiment. So I understand where you're coming from. Big complex projects, you've been along for the whole ride. So you know early on, there were some engineering issues that we confronted and addressed. In the middle of it, the big thing was the pandemic and demobilizing, remobilizing, building medical facilities and a whole bunch of stuff that we had to manage our way through and was complex and difficult. And our folks did a great job, but it clearly impacted cost and schedule.

是的，保羅，謝謝你。看，我也有同樣的感受。所以我明白你來自哪裡。大型複雜項目，您全程陪伴。所以你知道，我們很早就遇到並解決了一些工程問題。在這段期間，最重要的是疫情和復員、重新動員、建造醫療設施以及一大堆我們必須設法度過的事情，這些事情既複雜又困難。我們的人員做得很好，但這顯然影響了成本和進度。

And the big thing here, Paul, is as we've gotten into -- and you have to remember, this is -- we're redoing the power infrastructure for the entire field, which is, geographically speaking, it's an enormous space. And this is infrastructure, frankly, it goes back a lot of it to kind of Soviet days. So there's an entire new power distribution system. We're taking the entire field and taking it from high-pressure production to lower pressure in the WPMP process and then building the really large sour gas injection and incremental production facilities.

保羅，這裡最重要的是，正如我們所進入的——你必須記住，這是——我們正在為整個領域重做電力基礎設施，從地理上來說，這是一個巨大的空間。坦白說，這是基礎設施，它在很大程度上可以追溯到蘇聯時代。所以就有了一個全新的配電系統。我們正在將整個油田從高壓生產轉變為 WPMP 製程中的低壓生產，然後建造真正大型的酸性氣體注入和增量生產設施。

And it's -- so it's almost a field-wide refurbishment of a lot of it and then this big increment of production. And the commissioning of that is incredibly complex. And as we went in and did this cost and schedule review early in -- relatively early in the commissioning process, based on what we were seeing, what became evident is that we need to account for that complexity in our schedule. And I don't think it was fully reflected in the schedule. And in a big, complex project like this, you find things. And early on, we found challenges in the utility system. And it cost us some time. And it -- that ripples through.

這幾乎是對整個現場的大量翻新，然後是產量的大幅增加。而且其調試非常複雜。當我們在調試過程的早期階段進行成本和進度審查時，根據我們所看到的情況，顯而易見的是，我們需要在進度表中考慮到這種複雜性。我認為這沒有完全反映在日程安排中。在像這樣的大型複雜專案中，你會發現一些東西。在早期，我們發現公用事業系統面臨挑戰。這花了我們一些時間。它——那漣漪蕩漾開來。

And so the guidance we're giving you now is really what I would say is it's more conservative because it assumes that those kinds of things are going to be encountered for the balance of the project. And we need to set expectations that those are the realities that we're going to be dealing with. And so that's why the schedule, it's all in commissioning. It's -- bulk construction is completed. All the equipment is there. And this really is the final commissioning process. If we do well, we could end up on the front end of those windows that I gave you.

因此，我們現在給您的指導實際上是我想說的，它更加保守，因為它假設為了專案的平衡將會遇到這些事情。我們需要設定期望，這些就是我們將要面對的現實。這就是時間表的原因，一切都在調試中。主體工程已經完成。所有的設備都在那裡。這確實是最後的調試過程。如果我們做得好，我們最終可能會出現在我給你的那些視窗的前端。

But we've given you those because our experience says we should not plan for that, we had to plan for the reality of these things. And as I mentioned in response to the earlier question by Neil, we've added incremental resources in multiple areas now, ought to be -- to anticipate and be prepared for these kinds of challenges. And so I think the lesson is on the projects like this, of which there are a few, in the future, our commissioning plans will reflect that complexity more completely than the commissioning plans did on this one.

但我們給你們這些是因為我們的經驗表明我們不應該為此做計劃，我們必須為這些事情的現實做計劃。正如我在回答尼爾之前的問題時提到的，我們現在應該在多個領域增加增量資源，以預測並為此類挑戰做好準備。所以我認為教訓是這樣的項目，其中有一些，在未來，我們的調試計劃將比這個項目的調試計劃更完整地反映這種複雜性。

And I'll just add some comments on affiliate dividends. So we've given a guide on fourth quarter affiliate dividends, which falls short of the full year guide that we did at the start of the year. That shortfall is not from TCO, that's from CPChem, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company, on lower petchem margins. It's also from Angola LNG on lower TTF prices than we had assumed. We've also had some of the Angola LNG cash has come back to us as return to capital.

我將添加一些關於聯盟股利的評論。因此，我們給出了第四季度聯營公司股息指南，該指南低於我們年初制定的全年指南。這種短缺不是來自 TCO，而是來自 CPChem、雪佛龍菲利普斯化學公司，其石化產品利潤率較低。它也來自安哥拉液化天然氣，TTF 價格低於我們的預期。我們也得到了一些安哥拉液化天然氣現金作為資本回報回饋給我們。

In terms of TCO, we had a $600 million dividend Chevron share in the second quarter. We can't get ahead of the TCO Board on the fourth quarter. But 90% or so of the fourth quarter guide is related TCO. I'll remind you last year that TCO dividend was $1.6 billion Chevron share. All these numbers are before the withholding tax. So we'll see a pretty significant increase in the total year TCO dividend. Now some of that was the -- getting some of the excess cash off the balance sheet like we were talking about.

就整體擁有成本而言，我們第二季獲得了 6 億美元的雪佛龍股票股利。我們無法在第四季度領先 TCO 委員會。但第四季指引的 90% 左右與 TCO 相關。我會提醒您，去年 TCO 股息為 16 億美元的雪佛龍股票。所有這些數字均為預扣稅前的數字。因此，我們將看到全年總擁有成本 (TCO) 股息顯著增加。現在，其中一些就是——像我們所說的那樣，將一些多餘的現金從資產負債表中剔除。

But if you go back to the period prior to the start of this construction, so the period into 2015, we're seeing dividends now -- or this year's dividend will be similar to what we saw from that time period. So the inflection is happening after 5 years of either not receiving dividends or, in fact, putting cash out, essentially having negative free cash flow.

但如果你回到這個建設開始之前的時期，進入 2015 年的時期，我們現在看到了股息——或者今年的股息將與我們在那個時期看到的類似。因此，這種變化是在五年後要么沒有收到股息，要么實際上是在支出現金，基本上是負自由現金流之後發生的。

So we know production is going to be down next year. We showed that. So you'd expect dividends to reflect that a little bit. We have a little bit of increase in CapEx. And then we'll be heading to this more than $4 billion in '25. And all of that is -- that guidance is at $60. So we're seeing some positive news in terms of the cash flow coming out. Clearly disappointing news on the revised schedule, but we're going to work hard to deliver it in the front end of the range.

所以我們知道明年的產量將會下降。我們證明了這一點。所以你預期股息會稍微反映這一點。我們的資本支出略有增加。然後我們將在 25 年實現超過 40 億美元的目標。所有這些都是——指導價為 60 美元。因此，我們在現金流方面看到了一些正面的消息。修訂後的時間表的消息顯然令人失望，但我們將努力在範圍的前端交付它。

We'll go next to John Royall with JPMorgan.

接下來我們將討論摩根大通的約翰‧羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

So I have a follow-up on the Permian ex PDC. You were down 2% in 3Q, including the non-op piece, and really helpful color there from Mike on Biraj's question. But just -- it does leave a pretty big jump to hit guidance in 4Q, around 10%, if I calculate it right. So are you sticking with that 770,000 guide for the legacy piece? And if not, is there a good way to think about 4Q production in general?

所以我對二疊紀前 PDC 進行了追蹤。第三季股價下跌了 2%，包括非操作部分，麥克在比拉吉的問題上提供了非常有用的信息。但如果我計算正確的話，第四季的指導值確實會有相當大的跳躍，大約是 10%。那麼，您是否仍堅持使用 77 萬筆遺產指南？如果沒有，是否有一個好的方法來考慮第四季度的整體生產？

Yes, John, we're not changing the guidance. Overall on production, excluding PDC, we expect to be the lower end of overall guidance. Permian production is expected to ramp up in the fourth quarter. Full year production expected around 770,000, 780,000 or so if you include PDC. And so yes, the guidance is still intact for the Permian. Go ahead, Pierre.

是的，約翰，我們不會改變指導方針。總體而言，不包括 PDC 的產量，我們預計將達到整體指導的下限。二疊紀盆地產量預計將在第四季增加。若算上PDC，全年產量預計約為770,000、780,000 左右。所以，是的，二疊紀的指導仍然完好無損。繼續吧，皮埃爾。

Yes. Mike talked about the 2% shortfall on non-op, which averages to about 0.5%. He talked about also some of these surface constraints. So we have worked to overcome the shortfall we saw in non-op in the third quarter to deliver that. So no change in guidance. But clearly, we have a little more work to do in the fourth quarter to achieve it. We do expect though fourth quarter, more POPs and more production, in line with the plan that we laid out earlier this year.

是的。 Mike 談到非手術的缺口為 2%，平均約為 0.5%。他還談到了其中一些表面限制。因此，我們努力克服第三季非營運方面的不足，以實現這一目標。所以指導沒有改變。但顯然，我們在第四季還有更多工作要做才能實現這一目標。我們確實預計第四季度將出現更多持久性有機污染物和更多產量，這與我們今年早些時候制定的計劃一致。

We'll go next to Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們將與美國銀行一起前往 Doug Leggate 旁邊。

I want to try and defend you a little bit here this morning. Because if you look at the remaining life of Tengiz, about half of that value has been taken out of your stock this morning. I can't imagine you're happy about announcing another series of challenges.

今天早上我想在這裡為你辯護。因為如果你看看 Tengiz 的剩餘壽命，今天早上你的庫存中大約有一半的價值已經被取出。我無法想像你會對宣布另一系列挑戰感到高興。

So my question is this, at a philosophical level, how would you characterize what you and your management team and the organization are doing to avoid these kind of issues on major projects going forward? You've got a lot of things in the queue through 2027. Why should the market be comfortable that you can execute on that timeline with what you have in your portfolio?

所以我的問題是，在哲學層面上，您如何描述您和您的管理團隊以及組織正在採取的措施，以避免未來重大專案中出現此類問題？到 2027 年，您還有很多事情要做。為什麼市場會因為您可以在該時間表上使用投資組合中的資產而感到放心呢？

Well, Doug, you're right. I think there has been a reaction apparently in the market this morning to this. We've spent a lot of time -- I'll go back to Jay Johnson spending time not only in these calls but on traveling around, talking about what we're doing on capital project execution. This is a unique project. And I won't repeat the things that I went through earlier with Paul. But this is a large, multiyear effort that had supply chains coming in from all the way around the world through the Russian inland waterway system through the pandemic.

嗯，道格，你是對的。我認為今天早上市場顯然對此做出了反應。我們花了很多時間——我會回到傑·約翰遜，不僅花時間在這些電話上，而且花時間四處走動，談論我們在資本項目執行方面所做的事情。這是一個獨特的項目。我不會重複我之前和保羅經歷過的事。但這是一項耗時多年的巨大努力，在疫情期間，供應鏈從世界各地通過俄羅斯內陸水道系統進入。

And we've had our challenges with it. There are not projects in our queue that are remotely similar to this one. The kinds of things that we're talking about now are factory development projects across multiple shale basins. They're deepwater developments that I think the track record on those is quite different. And so I think the lessons on these really complex capital projects are that despite employing the best engineering and construction firms in the world, bringing in partners that have strong capability, they are really complex and challenging.

我們也遇到了挑戰。我們的隊列中沒有任何項目與此項目非常相似。我們現在談論的事情是跨多個頁岩盆地的工廠開發項目。它們是深水開發項目，我認為這些開發項目的記錄非常不同。因此，我認為這些非常複雜的資本項目的教訓是，儘管僱用了世界上最好的工程和建築公司，引入了具有強大能力的合作夥伴，但它們確實非常複雜且具有挑戰性。

And part of the way we mitigate that is we'd be very selective about the ones we do. We walked away from the Kitimat LNG project because we -- despite a lot of efforts to make that project better, we had concerns about execution in that kind of an environment and ultimately said we're not going to take on a project like that, particularly at this point in time.

我們緩解這種情況的部分方法是，我們會對我們所做的事情非常有選擇性。我們放棄了基蒂馬特液化天然氣項目，因為儘管我們付出了很多努力來使該項目變得更好，但我們對在這種環境下的執行感到擔憂，並最終表示我們不會接受這樣的項目，尤其是在這個時間點。

And so part of it is the way you choose what you do. Part of it is continuing to learn and apply those learnings, many of which from a decade ago have been implemented into the TCO project. But some of which from the TCO project will be implemented and integrated into other projects that go forward of similar complexity. So look, we're close to the finish line on this thing. And we've got a full-court press on it to make sure that the commissioning is safe and reliable and we have a clean start-up. And the lessons from that will be applied in every other project that we do.

所以其中一部分就是你選擇做什麼的方式。其中一部分是繼續學習和應用這些知識，其中許多十年前的知識已實施到 TCO 計畫中。但 TCO 專案中的一些內容將被實施並整合到具有類似複雜性的其他專案中。所以看，我們已經接近這件事的終點了。我們有全場壓力，以確保調試安全可靠，並且我們有一個乾淨的啟動。從中獲得的經驗教訓將應用於我們所做的所有其他項目。

And I'll just restate the impact that Mike -- yes, thanks, Doug. And I'll just restate the impact that Mike talked about. It's $2.5 billion, that's at $60, that's less than $1.50 a share. So clearly, they were down a lot more than that. We talked about the earnings in this. We know that weighs also on the shares, at the same time, noncash items, timing effects that reverse and discrete items that are nonrecurring.

我將重申麥克的影響——是的，謝謝，道格。我將重申麥克談到的影響。這是 25 億美元，即 60 美元，每股不到 1.50 美元。很明顯，他們的跌幅遠不止於此。我們談到了這方面的收益。我們知道，同時，非現金項目、可逆轉的時間效應和非經常性離散項目也會對股票造成壓力。

So we feel good about the company's performance in the quarter in terms of how we operated safely and reliably, how we captured margin. We know, as Mike said earlier, we have these quarters where it can be messy, can be noisy. It's one of them. But the underlying company is very strong and healthy.

因此，我們對公司本季的業績感到滿意，包括我們如何安全可靠地運作以及如何獲取利潤。我們知道，正如麥克之前所說，我們的這些宿舍可能很亂，可能很吵。這是其中之一。但其基礎公司非常強大且健康。

We'll go next to Irene Himona with Societe Generale.

接下來我們將與法國興業銀行的艾琳希莫納 (Irene Himona) 進行對話。

You're referring to your comments to higher OpEx and DD&A from the PDC legacy assets having impacted Q3 upstream. Now that you own that business fully and you can sort of look under the bonnet, how are you thinking about your original synergy estimates on PDC OpEx and CapEx? And how long would you expect it takes for those to start accruing to you in the results?

您指的是對影響第三季上游的 PDC 遺留資產較高的營運支出和 DD&A 的評論。現在您已完全擁有該業務，並且可以了解內部情況，您如何看待最初對 PDC 營運支出和資本支出的協同效應估計？您預計這些結果需要多長時間才能開始為您帶來結果？

Yes, Irene, the -- so I think that the reference was simply these are additive to -- versus prior periods. And so I wouldn't want anybody to interpret that somehow they were different than what we expected because the OpEx and the DD&A are not different than what we expected. Synergy capture is good. We're right on track to capture all of the synergies. No change to the guidance. We're confident that there's upside. And we'll realize that over time as we have on other transactions. We think there's additional operational midstream and procurement synergies that we didn't build into our initial target. And the CapEx synergy has been captured as well.

是的，艾琳，所以我認為參考文獻只是這些相對於之前時期的補充。因此，我不希望任何人解釋說它們與我們的預期有所不同，因為 OpEx 和 DD&A 與我們的預期沒有什麼不同。協同捕獲很好。我們正走在實現所有協同效應的軌道上。指南沒有變化。我們相信有上行空間。隨著時間的推移，我們會意識到這一點，正如我們在其他交易中所做的那樣。我們認為還有額外的營運中游和採購協同效應，但我們並未將其納入我們的初始目標。資本支出綜效也得到了體現。

So the nice thing about this in a quarter, where I appreciate Doug's view that maybe the reaction here has been a little -- we closed the transaction 5 months ahead of guidance. We pick up additional production for a bigger part of the year, the earnings and cash flow that go along with that. We've already paid off some high-cost debt. And so we're integrating that into our business now. And it's a very sound transaction that is going to deliver, I think, everything that we expected and then some.

因此，這個季度的好處是，我很欣賞道格的觀點，即這裡的反應可能有點小——我們比指導提前 5 個月完成了交易。我們在一年中的大部分時間裡獲得了額外的產量，隨之而來的是收益和現金流。我們已經還清了一些高成本債務。所以我們現在正在將其整合到我們的業務中。我認為，這是一項非常合理的交易，它將實現我們所期望的一切，甚至更多。

We'll go next to Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

接下來我們將與 TD Cowen 一起討論 Jason Gabelman。

I wanted to ask about what's going on in your Middle East footprint. You've obviously had to take Tamar offline. I believe that's a fixed price asset that you're receiving, so probably not a large cash impact. But if you could remind us what the cash impact is and the ability to maybe reroute that gas somewhere else or offset those losses, and then how you think about the Eastern Mediterranean growth profile overall, if there's any change how you're thinking about it in light of the recent events over there.

我想問一下您在中東的足跡發生了什麼事。顯然你必須讓 Tamar 離線。我相信您收到的是固定價格資產，因此可能不會產生很大的現金影響。但是，如果您能提醒我們現金影響是什麼，以及將天然氣改道到其他地方或抵消這些損失的能力，然後您如何看待東地中海的整體增長狀況，您的想法是否有任何變化鑑於最近那裡發生的事件。

Yes, I'll take the second part of that and then ask Pierre to address the cash and production impact. It doesn't change our view on the development opportunities really at all, Jason. This is a long-term play. It's a very, very large gas resource. We like some of the follow-on exploration opportunities in the region. We're working on the Aphrodite field in the waters offshore Cyprus to develop. We're working expansion projects that have been sanctioned on both Tamar and Leviathan and further expansion ideas on Leviathan.

是的，我將討論第二部分，然後請皮埃爾解決現金和生產影響問題。這根本不會改變我們對發展機會的看法，傑森。這是一個長期的遊戲。這是一個非常非常巨大的天然氣資源。我們看好該地區的一些後續勘探機會。我們正在塞浦路斯近海的阿芙羅狄蒂油田進行開發。我們正在進行已在塔馬艦和利維坦上批准的擴展項目，以及利維坦上的進一步擴展想法。

And so we've got to take a long-term view, which is measured in years and decades. And when you have things in the short term that create the circumstances that we see right now, we have to be prepared to mitigate those risks and to keep people safe and maintain the integrity of our operations. But it doesn't change our long-term view on the attractiveness of the asset and the development opportunities. I'll let Pierre address the cash question.

因此，我們必須採取長遠的眼光，以幾年和幾十年來來衡量。當短期內發生的事情造成我們現在所看到的情況時，我們必須做好準備，減輕這些風險，確保人員安全並保持我們營運的完整性。但這並沒有改變我們對資產吸引力和發展機會的長期看法。我會讓皮埃爾解決現金問題。

Yes. We don't talk about our specific contracts, and there's numbers of them. But I think, in effect, you're right, there's some escalators tied to inflation. There's some oil price sensitivity. But it's within sort of a floor and a ceiling. And these are regional gas prices that are well below international prices.

是的。我們不談論我們的具體合同，而且合約數量很多。但我認為，實際上，你是對的，有一些自動扶梯與通貨膨脹有關。石油價格有一定的敏感度。但它位於地板和天花板之內。這些地區天然氣價格遠低於國際價格。

So we don't know how long. We gave the guide on the production and the impact on cash flow is very modest. It's tens of millions of dollars in terms of doing the calculation. And so we'll just see where we end up in the quarter and how long it is shut in for.

所以我們不知道要多久。我們給了生產指南，對現金流的影響非常小。算起來，就是數千萬美元。因此，我們只會看看本季的結果以及關閉的時間。

We'll go next to Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

接下來我們將與派珀·桑德勒 (Piper Sandler) 一起前往瑞安·托德 (Ryan Todd)。

Maybe switch gears a little bit to the Gulf of Mexico. Can you maybe just provide any update on an overall basis? Do you anticipate the addition of the Hess assets in the Gulf to have any impact on your approach to the basin in the coming years?

也許稍微轉向墨西哥灣。您能否提供整體更新情況？您預計赫斯在海灣地區的資產增加會對您未來幾年進入該盆地的方式產生任何影響嗎？

And then you're scheduled to have three separate projects hitting at Anchor, St. Malo and Whale come onstream during 2024. Could you maybe update us on the progress of those projects and maybe the timing whether we should expect those in the first half or the second half of the year?

然後，您計劃在 2024 年期間在 Anchor、St. Malo 和 Whale 啟動三個獨立的項目。您能否向我們介紹一下這些項目的最新進展情況，以及我們是否應該期望在上半年或下半年？

Sure. So on the combination with Hess, I think we'll come back to you as we close the transaction and we integrate those. We're partners in a couple of projects that they operate. We both have lease positions out there. I think you would expect us to high-grade the exploration program as we look across a larger combined lease position and -- but we'll talk to you more about that as we go forward.

當然。因此，關於與赫斯的合併，我想我們會在完成交易並整合這些交易後回覆您。我們是他們運營的幾個項目的合作夥伴。我們都有租賃職位。我認為，當我們考慮更大的聯合租賃位置時，您會期望我們對勘探計劃進行高評價，並且 - 但隨著我們的進展，我們將與您更多地討論這一點。

In terms of specific projects, yes, you're right, we've -- Mad Dog 2 actually saw first oil this year. And we expect peak next year on Mad Dog 2. You can refer to the operator for more on that. Anchor and Whale are both expected for first oil next year. Anchor is 7 wells in total, 2 that will be online in '24, 3 in '25 -- no, 2 in '25, 2 in '26 and 1 then in '27. The FPU is safely moored out there in the field right now. The manifold and pump systems and subsea manifolds are all fabricated.

就具體項目而言，是的，你是對的，我們——《瘋狗 2》實際上今年首次看到了石油。我們預計《Mad Dog 2》明年將迎來高峰。您可以向營運商諮詢更多相關資訊。 Anchor和Whale預計明年將首次產油。總共有 7 口井，其中 2 口將在 24 年上線，3 口將在 25 年上線——不，2 口將在 25 年上線，2 口將在 26 年上線，1 口將在 27 年上線。 FPU 目前安全地停泊在現場。管匯和泵浦系統以及海底管匯均已製造。

We've landed and tested the 20,000 psi blowout preventer. So that project is moving along nicely. Production in '24 is modest because there's only a couple of wells online. Think of it midyear in terms of general timing. I'd refer you to Shell on the Whale project, first oil probably the latter part of 2024 and a similar kind of a profile, where you've got a smaller number of wells online initially. And then over the subsequent couple of years, you're going to see additional wells come online.

我們已經著陸並測試了 20,000 psi 防噴器。所以這個專案進展順利。 24 年的產量不大，因為只有幾口井在線上。從整體時間角度考慮年中。我建議您參考殼牌的 Whale 項目，該項目可能會在 2024 年下半年首次產油，並且具有類似的概況，最初在線的油井數量較少。在接下來的幾年裡，您將看到更多的油井上線。

And so the production impact of that starts to show up in '25 and '26 in a greater way than it does in 2024. And then Ballymore is actually first oil in 2025, not 2024. But that will come online in 2025, simpler development, tiebacks to Blind Faith, 3 wells, 2 of which would be online in 2025. The third one would come online in 2026. And so again, the production on that, a little bit in '25 and then you'll see more of it in '26 and '27.

因此，其對生產的影響將在25 年和26 年開始顯現出來，其程度比2024 年更大。然後巴利摩實際上是2025 年而不是2024 年生產第一批石油。但這將在2025年上線，開發更簡單，與Blind Faith 相連，有3 口井，其中2 口將於2025 年上線。第三口將於2026 年上線。同樣，這方面的生產，在25 年有一點點，然後你會看到更多26年和27年。

Ryan, just more broadly on Hess, we are not planning to hold our Investor Day at our usual timing. We'll likely either have just closed or will be in the antitrust review process. This is a big transaction impacting Gulf of Mexico but transforms the portfolio overall. We gave some guidance on potential asset sales also. So you should expect us to do an Investor Day several months after we close and when we have time to really put together a combined business plan for our investors.

Ryan，更廣泛地說，關於 Hess，我們不打算在通常的時間舉行投資者日。我們可能剛剛關閉或將進入反壟斷審查過程。這是一項影響墨西哥灣的重大交易，但整體上改變了投資組合。我們也為潛在資產出售提供了一些指導。因此，您應該期待我們在關閉幾個月後以及當我們有時間真正為投資者制定綜合業務計劃時舉辦投資者日活動。

We'll go next to Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research.

接下來我們將訪問伯恩斯坦研究公司的鮑伯‧布拉克特。

You've spent part of the week engaging with your shareholder base and making the case for the acquisition of Hess. Can you talk to, not details, obviously, but perhaps the tone of those conversations, the enthusiasm, anything that surprised you?

您本週花了一部分時間與您的股東群體進行交流，並為收購 Hess 提供理由。顯然，你能談談談話的語氣、熱情或任何令你驚訝的事情嗎？

I'd say overall -- and of course, we met with -- I was out. Pierre was in some separate meetings than I was. But I was out in a number of meetings with John Hess, sometimes the larger Hess shareholders, sometimes with larger Chevron shareholders. I would say, in general, people see the long-term value proposition very clearly here. And I think they see it as a combined company that is stronger and one that is set up to be stronger for longer with the ability to really sustain cash distributions to shareholders in a very consistent, predictable and durable fashion long into the future. And so that is -- there's no doubt about that.

我想說，總的來說——當然，我們會面了——我出局了。皮埃爾和我參加了一些不同的會議。但我參加了與約翰·赫斯（John Hess）的多次會議，有時是赫斯的大股東，有時是雪佛龍的大股東。我想說，總的來說，人們在這裡非常清楚地看到長期價值主張。我認為他們將其視為一家更強大的合併公司，並且將在更長時間內變得更強大，有能力在未來很長一段時間內以非常一致、可預測和持久的方式真正維持向股東的現金分配。毫無疑問。

Some of the questions, on the one side, did you get a high enough price? On the other side, did you pay too much, right? So there was tension in the -- in that, to be honest, during the negotiation. It was -- as we mentioned, this has been going on for some time. And John and I have been looking for a way to do a deal that is actually one that's good for both sets of shareholders and not easy because it's a great asset and the market recognizes that value.

有些問題，一方面，你得到的價格夠高嗎？另一方面，你付出的代價是不是太多了？所以說實話，談判期間存在著緊張氣氛。正如我們所提到的，這種情況已經持續了一段時間。約翰和我一直在尋找一種方式來完成一項實際上對雙方股東都有好處的交易，而且這並不容易，因為它是一項巨大的資產，而且市場認可這種價值。

And so I think you can find nuances from people who either held one of the stocks or the other for certain reasons. And maybe this wasn't exactly what they expected. But broadly speaking, I would say people see the long-term value creation. They see the transparency to resource depth, to production growth. The fact that you now have -- with Hess, you've got a much more diversified set of assets attached to their portfolio, which derisks any one of those assets. And it brings forward cash distributions to their shareholders meaningfully that would have still been several years into the future.

因此，我認為您可以從因某些原因持有其中一種股票或另一種股票的人身上發現細微差別。也許這並不完全是他們所期望的。但總的來說，我想說人們看到了長期的價值創造。他們看到了資源深度和產量成長的透明度。事實上，現在有了赫斯，你在他們的投資組合中擁有了更多元化的資產，這降低了其中任何一項資產的風險。而且它還有意義地向股東進行了現金分配，而這仍然是未來幾年的事。

For the Chevron shareholders, who were wondering what comes next after what they can currently see over the next several years in our portfolio, rather than us pointing to a range of potential answers to that and say, "We'll do the best of these," and we've got plenty of organic investment opportunities we're working on, I think it gives some confidence and certainty of what underpins that for the future. And so broadly speaking, those are the kinds of discussions that we've had.

對於雪佛龍股東來說，他們想知道在我們的投資組合中目前看到的未來​​幾年之後會發生什麼，而不是我們指出一系列潛在的答案並說：「我們將在這些方面做到最好”，我們正在開發大量有機投資機會，我認為這為未來的基礎提供了一些信心和確定性。從廣義上講，這些就是我們所進行的討論。

We'll go next to Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

接下來我們將討論 Truist 證券公司的 Neal Dingmann。

My question, Mike, is more on your shareholder return. You continue to have great financials and the shareholder return, both on the dividend and the buyback side, continues to be quite high, paying out a bit over 100% of your free cash flow. I'm just wondering, as you continue to have the growth opportunities ahead you do, do you see any change in that shareholder return, particularly on the share buyback or you continue to try to balance kind of the growth and buyback programs you have now?

麥克，我的問題更多的是關於你的股東回報。你的財務狀況持續良好，股東回報（無論是股息還是回購方面）仍然相當高，支付了超過 100% 的自由現金流。我只是想知道，隨著您繼續擁有未來的成長機會，您是否看到股東回報有任何變化，特別是在股票回購方面，或者您繼續嘗試平衡現在的成長和回購計劃？

Yes. We've had a very consistent set of financial priorities for many, many years. The first of which is to sustain and grow the dividend, 36 consecutive years now of per share dividend payouts for the last 5 years has been a 6% CAGR. Actually, I think the last 15 years have been a 6% CAGR and an announcement of 8% early next year, subject to Board approval. I think there's a strong track record there you can expect to continue.

是的。多年來，我們一直有一套非常一致的財務優先事項。首先是維持和增加股息，過去 5 年每股股息支付已連續 36 年維持 6% 的複合年增長率。事實上，我認為過去 15 年的複合年增長率為 6%，明年初宣布複合年增長率為 8%，具體情況需董事會批准。我認為那裡有良好的記錄，您可以期待繼續下去。

Second is to be disciplined in organic reinvestment into the business to grow those cash flows. You can be confident that we will continue to be disciplined in that reinvestment to drive returns and value. Number three is a strong balance sheet. Pierre mentioned we're single-digit net debt ratio today. That's lower than we have guided to over time. And so over time, you can expect the balance sheet to move back towards the 20% to 25% gearing range that we've identified as where we're comfortable through the cycle.

其次是嚴格對業務進行有機再投資以增加現金流。您可以相信，我們將繼續嚴格再投資，以提高回報和價值。第三是強勁的資產負債表。皮埃爾提到我們今天的淨負債比率為個位數。這低於我們長期以來的指導水準。因此，隨著時間的推移，您可以預期資產負債表將回到 20% 至 25% 的負債範圍，我們已確定該範圍是我們在整個週期中感到舒適的範圍。

And then the fourth are the share repurchases. And we've got a range now of $10 billion to $20 billion. We're at the high end of that range when we close the transaction with Hess with $17.5 billion annually. Today, that's 5% to 6% of our float each and every year. And we've -- I won't go through the details, but we've indicated we can sustain that in a lower price environment. And that's where the lower end of that range would apply.

第四是股票回購。現在我們的資金範圍是 100 億美元到 200 億美元。當我們與 Hess 完成每年 175 億美元的交易時，我們正處於該範圍的高端。如今，這占我們每年流通股數的 5% 到 6%。我不會詳細說明，但我們已經表示我們可以在較低的價格環境中維持這一點。這就是該範圍的下限適用的地方。

And certainly in a higher price environment, which is where we find ourselves today, we're at the high end of that range. And so we would expect to be consistent, predictable and to sustain that. I mean, consistent and durable being the keywords here. So I think the broad framework is likely to remain unchanged. And I think our behavior will be very consistent with what you've come to see from us historically.

當然，在更高的價格環境中，這就是我們今天所處的環境，我們處於該範圍的高端。因此，我們希望保持一致、可預測並維持這一點。我的意思是，一致和持久是這裡的關鍵字。所以我認為大框架可能保持不變。我認為我們的行為將與你們從歷史上看到的我們的行為非常一致。

We'll take our final question from Alastair Syme with Citi.

我們將接受花旗集團的阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆 (Alastair Syme) 提出的最後一個問題。

Mike, can I go back to Hess? For several years, Chevron has looked a bit different to the other integrated oil companies in terms of the low downstream exposure. And of course, now you're re-weighting even further to the upstream. So does that balance bother you at all? Or maybe how do you think about what an integrated oil company is?

麥克，我可以回赫斯嗎？多年來，雪佛龍在下游風險敞口較低方面與其他綜合性石油公司有些不同。當然，現在您正在進一步向上游重新調整權重。那麼這種平衡會讓你感到困擾嗎？或您如何看待什麼是綜合性石油公司？

Yes, Alastair, the short answer is no, it doesn't bother me. We actually have been becoming a more downstream-weighted company the last several years. And that may not be obvious to most people, but we've been -- our CapEx into the upstream has been below our depreciation. So our upstream business has been declining as a percentage of capital employed. In the downstream, we've made some big investments.

是的，阿拉斯泰爾，簡短的回答是否定的，這並不困擾我。實際上，過去幾年我們一直在成為一家更加重視下游的公司。這對大多數人來說可能並不明顯，但我們一直在上游的資本支出低於我們的折舊。因此，我們的上游業務佔所用資本的百分比一直在下降。在下游，我們進行了一些重大投資。

We acquired a refinery in Texas. We acquired a renewable energy company. We've invested in new petrochemical facilities. We've got two more of those petrochemical expansion projects underway right now. And so we had gone from 80-20 weighting or 85-15 weighting upstream to downstream and chemicals to 80-20 over the last few years. When we close this transaction, we'll be back at 80-20, which is -- or 85-15, I'm sorry, which is where we've historically been.

我們收購了德州的一家煉油廠。我們收購了一家再生能源公司。我們投資了新的石化設施。我們目前還有兩個石化擴建工程正在進行中。因此，在過去幾年中，我們從上游到下游和化學品的 80-20 權重或 85-15 權重上升到 80-20。當我們完成這筆交易時，我們將回到 80-20，也就是 85-15，對不起，這是我們歷史上的水平。

And that reflects a fundamental view that we believe that over the cycle, returns in the upstream are likely to be structurally higher than in the downstream primarily because refineries are hard to close. They get built for reasons other than just pure economics. And governments tend to intervene in transportation fuels markets, in particular, when prices are high, which kind of takes you out of full cycle economics.

這反映了一個基本觀點，即我們認為在整個週期中，上游的回報可能在結構上高於下游，主要是因為煉油廠很難關閉。它們的建立不僅僅是出於純粹的經濟原因。政府傾向於幹預運輸燃料市場，特別是在價格高的時候，這會讓你脫離全循環經濟。

And they kind of clip -- tend to put the peaks off of those, whereas in the upstream, you've got a declining resource base and you've got growing demand. And so the fundamentals rebalance more quickly. You remove a little bit of investment. And you see decline takeover and you see demand continue to grow. And so markets get imbalanced and the upstream rebalance more quickly.

他們傾向於推遲高峰，而在上游，資源基礎不斷下降，而需求卻不斷增長。因此基本面會更快重新平衡。您刪除了一點投資。你會看到接管率下降，而需求持續成長。因此市場會變得不平衡，上游會更快地重新平衡。

We also have been more oil-weighted than some of our peers. And fundamentally, that reflects a view that there are more alternatives to substitute for gas, particularly in power generation than there are for liquids in transportation. And so those are kind of high-level drivers of why our portfolio has been constructed the way that it is.

我們的石油權重也比一些同行更高。從根本上說，這反映了一種觀點，即天然氣的替代品有更多的替代品，特別是在發電領域，而不是運輸領域的液體替代品。因此，這些是我們投資組合如此建構的高層驅動因素。

We want to be an integrated company. We think there are real opportunities to capture economic value through integration to build the capabilities to run our entire business by bringing capabilities, technology, skills to bear across those different segments. But our peers are all weighted more to the up than the downstream. The ratios are a little bit different. And we've long held those views and constructed a portfolio that reflects them.

我們希望成為一家綜合性公司。我們認為，存在著真正的機會，可以透過整合來獲取經濟價值，透過將能力、技術和技能帶到這些不同的細分市場來建立經營整個業務的能力。但我們的同行都更傾向於上游而不是下游。比例略有不同。我們長期以來一直持有這些觀點，並建立了反映這些觀點的投資組合。

I would like to thank everyone for your time today. We appreciate your interest in Chevron and your participation on today's call. Please stay safe and healthy. Katie, back to you.

我要感謝大家今天抽出寶貴的時間。我們感謝您對雪佛龍的關注並參與今天的電話會議。請保持安全和健康。凱蒂，回到你身邊。

Thank you. This concludes Chevron's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。雪佛龍 2023 年第三季財報電話會議至此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。