雪佛龍 (CVX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to Chevron's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to the General Manager of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Roderick Green. Please go ahead.

早上好。我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。歡迎來到雪佛龍 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。我現在將會議轉交給雪佛龍公司投資者關係總經理 Roderick Green 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Katie. Welcome to Chevron's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. I'm Roderick Green, General Manager of Investor Relations; our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth; and CFO, Pierre Breber, are on the call with me.

謝謝你，凱蒂。歡迎來到雪佛龍 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議和網絡直播。我是投資者關係部總經理 Roderick Green；我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Wirth；首席財務官 Pierre Breber 正在與我通話。

Also listening in today is Jake Spiering, the incoming General Manager of Investor Relations, who will assume this position effective March 1. Jake and I will be transitioning together over the next couple of months. It's been my sincere pleasure working with each of you over the last 2 years. Thank you for your questions, feedback and investment in Chevron.

今天還聽取了即將上任的投資者關係總經理 Jake Spiering 的講話，他將從 3 月 1 日起擔任該職位。Jake 和我將在接下來的幾個月內一起過渡。在過去的 2 年裡，與你們每一位一起工作是我真誠的榮幸。感謝您提出問題、反饋和對雪佛龍的投資。

We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron's website. Before we begin, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary statement on Slide 2. Now I will turn it over to Mike.

我們將參考雪佛龍網站上提供的幻燈片和準備好的評論。在我們開始之前，請注意本演示文稿包含估計、預測和其他前瞻性陳述。請查看幻燈片 2 上的警告聲明。現在我將把它交給邁克。

Thank you, Roderick, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Chevron had an outstanding year in 2022, delivering record financial performance, producing more traditional energy and advancing lower carbon businesses.

謝謝羅德里克，也感謝大家今天加入我們。雪佛龍在 2022 年表現出色，實現了創紀錄的財務業績，生產更多傳統能源並推進低碳業務。

Free cash flow stood a record, beating our previous high in 2021 by more than $15 billion, enabling a strong dividend increase and the buyback of almost 4% of our shares.

自由現金流創下歷史新高，比我們在 2021 年的高點高出 150 億美元以上，從而實現了強勁的股息增長和近 4% 的股票回購。

U.S. production was also our highest ever led by double-digit growth in the Permian. Growth matters when it's profitable. Return on capital employed over 20% shows that our focus on capital efficiency is delivering results.

在二疊紀以兩位數增長的帶動下，美國的產量也是有史以來最高的。當盈利時，增長很重要。超過 20% 的已動用資本回報率表明我們對資本效率的關注正在取得成果。

And we took important steps in building new energy businesses. We successfully integrated REG's people and assets into Chevron, combining the best of both companies' technical and commercial capabilities. And we acquired rights to pore space for potential carbon capture and storage projects in Texas and Australia.

新能源業務建設邁出重要步伐。我們成功地將 REG 的人員和資產整合到雪佛龍，結合了兩家公司的最佳技術和商業能力。我們還獲得了德克薩斯州和澳大利亞潛在碳捕獲和儲存項目的孔隙空間權利。

We had many other highlights last year, to name just a few, at TCO, project construction is largely complete, and we're starting up the fuel gas system. Focus is on commissioning and start-up of the Wellhead Pressure Management Project by the end of this year to begin transition of the field from high to low pressure.

去年我們還有許多其他亮點，僅舉幾例，在 TCO，項目建設已基本完成，我們正在啟動燃氣系統。重點是在今年年底之前調試和啟動井口壓力管理項目，以開始油田從高壓到低壓的過渡。

We announced a significant new gas discovery offshore Egypt, which could build on our growing natural gas position in the Eastern Med.

我們宣佈在埃及近海發現了一個重要的新天然氣發現，這可以鞏固我們在東部地中海不斷增長的天然氣地位。

And our affiliate CPChem reached FID for 2 world-scale ethylene and derivative projects in Texas and Qatar.

我們的附屬公司 CPChem 為德克薩斯州和卡塔爾的 2 個世界級乙烯及衍生物項目達成 FID。

2022 was a dynamic year with unique macroeconomic and geopolitical forces disrupting economies and industries around the globe. These events remind us of the importance of affordable and reliable energy with a lower carbon intensity over time.

2022 年是充滿活力的一年，獨特的宏觀經濟和地緣政治力量擾亂了全球經濟和行業。這些事件提醒我們隨著時間的推移，碳強度較低且負擔得起且可靠的能源的重要性。

We don't know what's ahead in 2023. I do know that Chevron's approach will be clear and consistent, focused on capital, cost and operational discipline with the objective to safely deliver higher returns and lower carbon. With that, I'll turn it over to Pierre to discuss our financials.

我們不知道 2023 年會發生什麼。我知道雪佛龍的方法將是清晰和一致的，專注於資本、成本和運營紀律，目標是安全地提供更高的回報和更低的碳排放。有了這個，我會把它交給皮埃爾來討論我們的財務狀況。

Thanks, Mike. We reported fourth quarter earnings of $6.4 billion or $3.33 per share. Adjusted earnings were $7.9 billion or $4.09 per share. Included in the quarter were $1.1 billion in write-offs and impairments in our international upstream segment, and negative foreign currency effects over $400 million. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to this presentation.

謝謝，邁克。我們報告第四季度收益為 64 億美元或每股 3.33 美元。調整後收益為 79 億美元或每股 4.09 美元。本季度包括我們國際上游部門的 11 億美元註銷和減值，以及超過 4 億美元的負面外匯影響。可以在本演示文稿的附錄中找到非 GAAP 措施的對賬。

Record operating cash flows in combination with continued capital efficiency, resulted in over $37 billion of free cash flow in 2022. The only other year Chevron's operating cash flow exceeded $40 billion was 2011. Free cash flow in that year was less than 40% of this year's record.

創紀錄的運營現金流與持續的資本效率相結合，導致 2022 年的自由現金流超過 370 億美元。雪佛龍運營現金流唯一超過 400 億美元的另一年是 2011 年。那一年的自由現金流不到這一年的 40%年的記錄。

In 2022, Chevron delivered outstanding results on all 4 of its financial priorities. Announcing earlier this week another 6% increase in our dividend per share, positioning 2023 to be the 36th consecutive year with annual dividend payout increases, investing within its organic budget despite cost inflation. Inorganic CapEx totaled $1.3 billion nearly 80% for new energy investments.

2022 年，雪佛龍在其所有 4 個財務優先事項上都取得了出色的成績。本週早些時候宣布我們的每股股息再次增加 6%，將 2023 年定位為連續第 36 年增加年度股息支付，儘管成本膨脹，但仍在其有機預算內進行投資。無機資本支出總額為 13 億美元，近 80% 用於新能源投資。

Paying down debt in every quarter and ending the year with a 3% net debt ratio, returning record annual cash to shareholders through buybacks and exiting the year with an annual repurchase rate of $15 billion.

每個季度償還債務並以 3% 的淨債務比率結束這一年，通過回購向股東返還創紀錄的年度現金，並以 150 億美元的年度回購率結束這一年。

Two days ago, Chevron's Board of Directors authorized a new $75 billion share repurchase program. Now is a good time to look back on our execution of the prior programs. Over the past nearly 2 decades, we bought back shares in more than 3 out of every 4 years, returning more than $65 billion to shareholders. And we've done it below the market average price during the whole time period.

兩天前，雪佛龍董事會批准了一項新的 750 億美元股票回購計劃。現在是回顧我們執行先前計劃的好時機。在過去近 20 年中，我們每 4 年中就有 3 年以上回購股票，向股東返還超過 650 億美元。在整個時間段內，我們都以低於市場平均價格的價格完成了交易。

Going forward with the new program, our intent is the same, be a steady buyer of our shares across commodity cycles. With a breakeven Brent price around $50 per barrel to cover our CapEx and dividend and with excess balance sheet capacity, we're positioned to return more cash to shareholders in any reasonable oil price scenario.

展望新計劃，我們的意圖是一樣的，即在整個商品週期中成為我們股票的穩定買家。布倫特原油的盈虧平衡價格約為每桶 50 美元，以支付我們的資本支出和股息，並且資產負債表容量過剩，我們有能力在任何合理的油價情景下向股東返還更多現金。

Turning to the quarter. Adjusted earnings were down nearly $3 billion compared with last quarter. Adjusted upstream earnings decreased primarily on lower realizations and liftings as well as higher exploration expense, partially offset by favorable timing effects. Adjusted downstream earnings decreased primarily on lower refining and chemicals margins and negative timing effects partially offset with higher sales volumes following third quarter turnarounds.

轉向季度。與上一季度相比，調整後的收益下降了近 30 億美元。調整後的上游收益下降主要是由於較低的實現和提升以及較高的勘探費用，部分被有利的時間效應所抵消。調整後的下游收益下降主要是由於煉油和化學品利潤率下降以及負面時間效應部分被第三季度扭虧為盈後銷量增加所抵消。

The Other segment charges increased mainly due to accruals for stock-based compensation.

其他分部費用增加主要是由於股票補償的應計費用。

For the full year, adjusted earnings increased more than $20 billion compared to the prior year. Adjusted upstream earnings were up primarily due to increased realizations. Other items include higher exploration expenses, higher incremental royalties and production taxes due to higher prices, partially offset by favorable tax benefits and other items.

與上一年相比，全年調整後收益增加了 200 億美元以上。調整後的上游收益增加主要是由於變現增加。其他項目包括更高的勘探費用、更高的增量特許權使用費和由於價格上漲而產生的生產稅，部分被優惠的稅收優惠和其他項目所抵消。

Downstream adjusted earnings increased primarily due to higher refining margins, partially offset by lower chemical earnings and higher maintenance and turnaround costs.

下游調整後收益的增長主要是由於煉油利潤率提高，部分被化學品收益下降以及維護和周轉成本上升所抵消。

2022 production was in line with guidance after adjusting for higher prices. As a reminder, Chevron's share of production is lower under certain international contracts when actual prices are higher than assumed in our guidance. Reserves replacement ratio was nearly 100% with the largest net additions in the Permian, Israel, Canada and the Gulf of Mexico. Higher prices lowered our share of proved reserves by over 100 million barrels of oil equivalent.

在針對更高的價格進行調整後，2022 年的產量符合指導。提醒一下，當實際價格高於我們的指導假設時，雪佛龍在某些國際合同下的生產份額較低。儲量替代率接近100%，其中二疊紀、以色列、加拿大和墨西哥灣淨增加量最大。較高的價格使我們在探明儲量中的份額減少了超過 1 億桶石油當量。

2023 production is expected to be flat to up 3% at $80 Brent. After adjusting for lower prices and portfolio changes, primarily the sale of our Eagle Ford asset and the expiration of a contract in Thailand, we expect production to grow led by the Permian and other shale and tight assets. We remain confident in exceeding our long-term production guidance.

預計 2023 年布倫特原油產量將持平至增長 3%，至每桶 80 美元。在針對較低的價格和投資組合變化進行調整後，主要是出售我們的 Eagle Ford 資產和泰國合同到期後，我們預計產量將在二疊紀和其他頁岩和緻密資產的帶動下增長。我們仍然有信心超越我們的長期生產指導。

Looking ahead to 2023, I'll call out a few items. Earnings estimates from first quarter refinery turnarounds are mostly driven by El Segundo. Based on the current outlook, we expect higher natural gas costs for our California refineries. Full year guidance for all other segment losses is lower this year due to higher expected interest income and again excludes special items such as pension settlement costs.

展望 2023 年，我會提出一些建議。第一季度煉油廠扭虧為盈的收益估計主要由 El Segundo 推動。根據目前的前景，我們預計加州煉油廠的天然氣成本會更高。由於預期利息收入較高，並且再次排除養老金結算成本等特殊項目，今年所有其他部門虧損的全年指引較低。

The All Other segment can vary quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year. We estimate annual affiliate dividends between $5 billion and $6 billion, depending primarily on commodity prices and margins. The difference between affiliate earnings and dividends is expected to be less than $2 billion. We do not expect a dividend from TCO in the first quarter.

所有其他細分市場可能會隨季度和年度而變化。我們估計每年附屬公司的股息在 50 億美元到 60 億美元之間，主要取決於商品價格和利潤率。附屬公司收益與股息之間的差額預計將低於 20 億美元。我們預計第一季度 TCO 不會派發股息。

We updated our earnings sensitivities. About 20% of the Brent sensitivity relates to oil-linked LNG sales. Also, we expect to maintain share buybacks at the top end of our guidance range during the first quarter. Finally, as a reminder in Venezuela, we use cost affiliate accounting, which means we will only record earnings if we receive cash. We do not record production or reserves.

我們更新了盈利敏感性。大約 20% 的布倫特原油敏感性與與石油相關的液化天然氣銷售有關。此外，我們預計在第一季度將股票回購維持在我們指導範圍的高端。最後，作為委內瑞拉的提醒，我們使用成本關聯會計，這意味著我們只有在收到現金時才會記錄收益。我們不記錄產量或儲量。

2022 was a record year for Chevron in many ways. We look forward to the future, confident in our strategy with a consistent objective to safely deliver higher returns and lower carbon. We'll share more during our Investor Day next month. Back to you, Roderick.

2022 年在許多方面對雪佛龍來說都是創紀錄的一年。我們展望未來，對我們的戰略充滿信心，始終如一的目標是安全地提供更高的回報和更低的碳排放。我們將在下個月的投資者日期間分享更多信息。回到你身邊，羅德里克。

That concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take your questions. Please try to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We'll do our best to get all your questions answered. Katie, please open the lines.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在準備好回答您的問題。請盡量將自己限制在一個問題和一個跟進中。我們會盡力解答您的所有問題。凱蒂，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Jeanine Wai。

We'd like to wish Roderick well in his new position, and we really appreciate all your time and help over the past 2 years. So thank you very much.

我們希望 Roderick 在他的新職位上一切順利，我們非常感謝您在過去 2 年中付出的所有時間和幫助。非常感謝。

Our first question, maybe just heading towards the buyback authorization topic. This week, the Board authorized the buyback authorization up to $75 billion, no expiration date, which is pretty large versus the prior authorization that had a 4-year expiration date. We heard your comments on wanting to be a steady buyer of your shares across cycles and that you're positioned to return more cash to shareholders. Can you comment on the decision-making process for getting to that $75 billion and maybe the choice to leave the authorization open in timing versus the prior authorization did have an expiration date?

我們的第一個問題，可能只是針對回購授權主題。本週，董事會批准了高達 750 億美元的回購授權，沒有到期日，這與之前有 4 年到期日的授權相比相當大。我們聽到了您關於希望成為跨週期股票的穩定買家的評論，並且您準備好向股東返還更多現金。您能否評論一下獲得 750 億美元的決策過程，也許是選擇及時開放授權而不是事先授權確實有到期日？

Yes, Jeanine, let me start, and then I'll have Pierre add a little bit of color. We included a little information on this call looking back at our past programs. And as you saw on the Slide 15 and the last 19 years, we've bought shares back lower than the market volume weighted average over that period of time. We look at the decision going forward in the context of the cash-generating potential of the portfolio, the outlook for the market environment, the strength of the balance sheet. And we don't want to be authorizing a program every year. So we talk to the Board about a multiyear outlook.

是的，珍妮，讓我開始，然後我會讓皮埃爾添加一點顏色。我們回顧了我們過去的項目，在這次電話會議上提供了一些信息。正如您在幻燈片 15 和過去 19 年中看到的那樣，我們回購的股票價格低於那段時間的市場成交量加權平均值。我們在投資組合的現金產生潛力、市場環境前景和資產負債表實力的背景下審視未來的決定。我們不想每年都授權一個程序。因此，我們與董事會討論了多年展望。

So the fact that there's not an end date on it is only significant if you're trying to do some sort of math and annualize this. We think our track record speaks for ourselves and the steady, consistent way that we've done this. And so we increased the rate 3 times last year as we saw the situation evolve, and we're now at an all-time high with the rate of repurchases. So the last thing you said it, but I'll repeat it, in sized to maintain our program through the commodity cycle. We aren't pro-cyclical. We're not countercyclical. We're steady through the cycle, and that is the intention. Pierre, do you want to add anything?

因此，它沒有結束日期這一事實只有在您嘗試進行某種數學運算並將其年化時才有意義。我們認為我們的往績可以證明我們自己以及我們以穩定、一致的方式做到這一點。因此，隨著形勢的發展，我們去年將利率提高了 3 倍，現在我們的回購率處於歷史最高水平。所以你說的最後一件事，但我會重複一遍，以在商品週期中維持我們的計劃。我們不是順週期的。我們不是反週期的。我們在整個週期中保持穩定，這就是我們的意圖。皮埃爾，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, Jeanine. So the authorization from 2019 was going to be consumed in the second quarter. It was also open. So it did not have a defined time period. We just -- will have consumed it. So instead of having an authorization in the middle of the quarter, we'll complete this quarter's buybacks under the 2019 authorization, which again had an open time period, and then we'll start the new on April 1. So it is similar to the way it was done in the prior time.

是的，珍妮。因此，2019 年的授權將在第二季度消耗掉。它也是開放的。所以它沒有一個明確的時間段。我們只是 - 將消耗它。因此，我們將在 2019 年授權下完成本季度的回購，而不是在本季度中期獲得授權，這同樣有一個開放時間段，然後我們將在 4 月 1 日開始新的授權。所以它類似於以前的方式。

Thank you for that clarification. We appreciate that. Maybe our second question, it's that time of year again, reserve replacement ratio, your ratio for 2022 was 97%. And we believe that compared to 112% last year, and then I think it was around 99% on average for the 5 years before that. So our question for you is just -- how do you see this ratio trending over time? And I guess the over or under bogey is probably 100%.

謝謝你的澄清。我們對此表示讚賞。也許我們的第二個問題，又是一年中的那個時候，儲備替代率，你們 2022 年的比率是 97%。我們認為，與去年的 112% 相比，我認為在此之前的 5 年中平均約為 99%。所以我們的問題只是 - 您如何看待這個比率隨時間變化的趨勢？我想超過或低於柏忌的概率可能是 100%。

Yes. So it can move in any given year, Jeanine for a whole host of reasons, right? Prices, FID decisions, portfolio actions that we take to either sell or buy. And so the 1-year number is one that will move around. The longer cycle numbers, the one that you ought to pay attention to.

是的。所以它可以在任何給定的年份移動，Jeanine 有很多原因，對吧？價格、FID 決策、我們為出售或購買而採取的投資組合行動。因此，1 年期的數字是會變動的。越長的周期數，你應該注意的那個。

Remember also, as we have this large position in the Permian we continue to develop. We can only book 5 years forward. And so each year, we'll produce out of the unconventional assets, and we'll add another year's worth of reserves on the back end of that. And so if you were to look at the Permian unconstrained by that, you'd have a very different view. This year, we had some additions in the Permian and Israel and Canada and the Gulf of Mexico, as Pierre mentioned, the largest net reduction this year were Kazakhstan due to the contract terms and the effect of higher prices.

還要記住，由於我們在二疊紀擁有如此大的位置，我們將繼續開發。我們只能提前 5 年預訂。所以每年，我們都會從非常規資產中生產出來，我們會在後端增加一年的儲備。因此，如果你不受此限制地看待二疊紀，你會有截然不同的看法。今年，我們在二疊紀、以色列、加拿大和墨西哥灣增加了一些，正如皮埃爾提到的，由於合同條款和價格上漲的影響，今年最大的淨減少是哈薩克斯坦。

If you were to actually adjust that out, so we mentioned 100 million barrels where the price effect this year would be -- think of it as 107% ex the price effect. And so I do think over time, we intend to be in this business for quite a while and 100% is a number that you ought to expect to see that or greater over time. But in any given year or any short number of years, you might see something looks a little bit different.

如果你真的要調整它，那麼我們提到了 1 億桶今年的價格影響——可以把它想像成 107% ex the price effect。所以我確實認為隨著時間的推移，我們打算在這個行業中經營一段時間，而 100% 是一個你應該期望看到的數字，或者隨著時間的推移會更高。但在任何給定年份或任何短時間內，您可能會看到一些看起來有點不同的東西。

We'll take our next question from Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

我們將從摩根士丹利的 Devin McDermott 那裡回答下一個問題。

First of all, Roderick, I wanted to (inaudible) Jeanine, congrats on the new role, and thank you for all the help over the years. It's been great working with you.

首先，羅德里克，我想（聽不清）珍妮，祝賀她擔任新角色，並感謝你多年來的所有幫助。和你一起工作很愉快。

So I wanted to focus in on upstream. And it's good to see the continued progress on TCO and exciting to be getting close to the finish line on the expansion project there. You noted that WPMP is on track for commissioning and start-up later this year. I just wanted to first confirm that the second part of that expansion, FGP is still on track for '24. And then just stepping back, can you just walk us through your latest expectations to the impacts on both TCO production, CapEx and then also affiliate dividends as these projects come online. Trying to get a sense of the changes in '24 versus '23? And then also how you think about the run rate on both volumes and spending for that affiliate post FGP?

所以我想專注於上游。很高興看到 TCO 的持續進展，並且很高興接近那裡的擴展項目的終點線。您注意到 WPMP 有望在今年晚些時候進行調試和啟動。我只是想首先確認該擴展的第二部分，FGP 仍在 24 年的正軌上。然後退後一步，你能否向我們介紹一下你對 TCO 生產、資本支出以及這些項目上線時附屬股息的影響的最新預期。試圖了解 24 年與 23 年的變化？然後，您如何看待 FGP 後該附屬機構的流量和支出的運行率？

Yes. Devin, I'll talk to the project and let Pierre talk a little bit to the financials. First of all, no change to cost or schedule guidance. WPMP is trending toward a beginning start-up by the end of this year. We've got a lot of work done. We've got a new power grid up and running, and this was a power grid built back in the Soviet days. The control room is up and running, where everything comes into one central control room. All the production on gas injection wells are done, the gas injection facility is now in early commissioning. In just the next few days, we'll tie in the fuel gas system to the first gas turbine generator, which is really an important milestone to test the first of the 3 GTGs, begin the process of powering up electrical generation capacity and commissioning boilers, steam and other utilities.

是的。 Devin，我會談談項目，讓 Pierre 談談財務方面的問題。首先，成本或進度指導沒有變化。 WPMP 正趨向於在今年年底開始啟動。我們已經完成了很多工作。我們已經建立並運行了一個新的電網，這是一個在蘇聯時代建造的電網。控制室已啟動並運行，一切都集中在一個中央控制室。注氣井已全部投產，注氣設施進入前期調試階段。在接下來的幾天裡，我們將把燃氣系統連接到第一台燃氣輪機發電機，這確實是測試 3 台 GTG 中第一台的重要里程碑，開始發電能力和調試鍋爐的過程、蒸汽和其他公用事業。

So that all happens sequentially here over the next period of time which leads to commissioning the pressure boost compressors in the third quarter and then converting the field from -- beginning the conversion from high to low pressure by the end of the year.

因此，所有這一切都將在接下來的一段時間內依次發生，這將導致在第三季度調試增壓壓縮機，然後在年底前開始從高壓到低壓的轉換。

A couple of things that will bear on production. We've got 2 planned turnarounds of the old processing trains. They're called the KTL. There's 5 of them. We had 2 turnarounds this year that are planned in the third quarter. So those will be down for a period of time. And then as those come back up, production may not fully recover on those 2 as some of the wells won't resume flowing until we get to the low-pressure system.

有幾件事會影響生產。我們有 2 次舊處理列車的計劃周轉。他們被稱為 KTL。有 5 個。今年我們計劃在第三季度進行兩次轉機。因此，這些將下降一段時間。然後隨著這些井的恢復，這兩個井的生產可能無法完全恢復，因為在我們到達低壓系統之前，一些井不會恢復流動。

So back half of the year, you'll see a little bit of that impact. And then as we move into '24, we've got more of these high pressure to low-pressure conversions in the field and we've got FGP start-up first half of '24. So you don't see the full effect of FGP roll through, you get partial effect in ramping in '24, and then the full effect will show in '25. Cash will kind of follow that pattern. So Pierre, maybe you can talk about the pattern on CapEx and dividends.

所以回到今年的一半，你會看到一點點影響。然後，當我們進入 24 年時，我們在現場進行了更多的高壓到低壓轉換，並且我們在 24 年上半年啟動了 FGP。所以你看不到 FGP 滾動的全部效果，你在 24 年的斜坡中得到部分效果，然後完整的效果將在 25 年顯示。現金會遵循這種模式。所以皮埃爾，也許你可以談談資本支出和股息的模式。

Yes. For 2023, the TCO dividends are included in the guidance we provided, $5 billion, $6 billion, which is up from what our total dividends that we received last year. We did indicate that TCO has held a little excess cash during the course of last year just due to uncertainties that are going on right now.

是的。對於 2023 年，TCO 股息包含在我們提供的指導中，50 億美元、60 億美元，高於我們去年收到的總股息。我們確實指出，由於目前存在的不確定性，去年 TCO 持有少量現金。

The CapEx was included in our December release. So it's nearly half of the $3 billion of affiliate CapEx, so that's $1.5 billion. Again, you'd expect that to continue to roll off next year. And then if you go back to our Investor Day, we showed that at $60 Brent post start-up in a full year of FGP production that the free cash flow coming out of TCO on 100% basis would be $10 billion. And again, that's a $60 Brent. We'll provide further updates as we normally do on Investor Day. But the takeaway, as we've said for a long time, now we've been investing in this project for 6+ years through COVID, through the ups and downs, when it starts up, it will generate a lot of free cash flow. We'll see that in the form of dividends, and we'll see that in the form of paying back some of the loans that we co-lend into TCO.

資本支出包含在我們 12 月發布的版本中。所以它幾乎是附屬公司資本支出 30 億美元的一半，也就是 15 億美元。同樣，您預計明年會繼續下降。然後，如果你回到我們的投資者日，我們表明，在 FGP 生產的一整年啟動後，布倫特原油價格為 60 美元，在 100% 的基礎上，來自 TCO 的自由現金流將為 100 億美元。再一次，這是 60 美元的布倫特原油。我們將像往常一樣在投資者日提供進一步的更新。但是要說的是，正如我們長期以來所說的那樣，現在我們已經通過 COVID 對這個項目進行了 6 年多的投資，經歷了風風雨雨，當它啟動時，它將產生大量的自由現金流.我們將以股息的形式看到這一點，我們將以償還我們共同借給 TCO 的一些貸款的形式看到這一點。

Devin, just to kind of put a final punctuation on that. In our Investor Day last year, we showed in 2026, so once we get fully on the other side of all this stuff I just described, a 5x expansion in free cash flow out of TCO versus 2021. So it's meaningful.

Devin，我只是想在最後加上一個標點符號。在去年的投資者日，我們展示了 2026 年，所以一旦我們完全了解我剛才描述的所有這些東西的另一面，與 2021 年相比，TCO 的自由現金流量增加了 5 倍。所以這很有意義。

Okay. Great. A helpful answer there. And then thinking about this year, 2023 in more detail. You talked about 0% to 3% total production growth for the year, led by sale in the Permian. And last year, you had another strong one for the Permian, volumes were up 16%. I was wondering if you could just talk through your expectations for that asset in 2023, whether or not you're adding rigs there, overall activity trends? And then more broadly within that 0% to 3% range, what are some of the drivers that can be viewed to the upper or lower end as we move through the year.

好的。偉大的。那裡有一個有用的答案。然後更詳細地考慮今年，2023 年。你談到今年總產量增長 0% 到 3%，主要是二疊紀的銷售。去年，二疊紀又一次表現強勁，銷量增長了 16%。我想知道你是否可以談談你對 2023 年該資產的期望，你是否在那裡增加鑽井平台，整體活動趨勢？然後更廣泛地在 0% 到 3% 的範圍內，隨著我們一年的推移，可以將哪些驅動因素視為上限或下限。

Yes. Maybe I'll finish on -- I think the second question is about overall production, and the first was about Permian. So our outlook for 2023 at $80 is flat to up 3%, so that post between 3 million and 3.1 million barrels a day. There's a modest adjustment to that relative to our Investor Day guidance. A couple of things driving that, some project deferrals like Mad Dog 2, which we thought would start up in '22 and now looks like a '23 startup.

是的。也許我會結束——我認為第二個問題是關於整體生產的，第一個是關於二疊紀的。因此，我們對 2023 年 80 美元的前景持平至上漲 3%，因此每天的產量在 300 萬至 310 萬桶之間。相對於我們的投資者日指南，對此進行了適度調整。有幾件事推動了這一點，一些項目推遲了，比如 Mad Dog 2，我們認為它會在 22 年啟動，現在看起來像是 23 年的啟動。

We've got some downtime, plans downtime that shifted from '22 to '23. And then our Permian growth would be a little bit lower in '23. A couple of things. One, in '22, we had the benefit of a lot of prior DUCs that had been sitting that came online and it boost early production in '22, a little bit more. And then we also are re-optimizing some of our development plans to factor in some of the things we continue to learn relative to interactions between wells and benches, how we space laterals and do single or multi-bench development. So our revised plan will have some deeper targets, a few more rig moves and a few more single bench developments all of which brings that pace down a little bit. So that's kind of at the highest level, what is behind the production numbers. We'll talk about that more when we see you guys in a month here. And maybe I'll stop there because I did cover the Permian as part of that.

我們有一些停機時間，計劃停機時間從 22 年轉移到 23 年。然後我們的二疊紀增長在 23 年會稍微低一些。幾件事。其一，在 22 年，我們受益於許多之前一直在線的 DUC，它促進了 22 年的早期生產，甚至更多。然後我們也在重新優化我們的一些開發計劃，以考慮我們繼續學習的一些與井和台階之間的相互作用相關的東西，我們如何空間橫向和進行單一或多台階開發。因此，我們修改後的計劃將有一些更深層次的目標，更多的鑽井平台移動和更多的單一工作台開發，所有這些都會讓這個速度稍微放慢一點。所以這是最高級別的，生產數字背後的原因。當我們一個月後在這裡見到你們時，我們會更多地討論這個問題。也許我會到此為止，因為我確實將二疊紀作為其中的一部分進行了報導。

Katie, we can go to the next question.

凱蒂，我們可以轉到下一個問題。

Katie, can you hear us?

凱蒂，你能聽到我們嗎？

We'll take our next question from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們將接受 Neil Mehta 和 Goldman Sachs 的下一個問題。

Congrats here on a good year. Mike, I guess the first question I have for you is around global gas. And maybe you can talk about how you're seeing the market. There's obviously been a tremendous amount of volatility and remind us again how you're positioned from a contracted versus spot position? And then I have a follow-up on gas as well in the Eastern Med.

祝賀你度過了一個美好的一年。邁克，我想我要問你的第一個問題是關於全球天然氣的。也許你可以談談你是如何看待市場的。顯然波動很大，再次提醒我們你是如何從合約頭寸和現貨頭寸中定位的？然後我在 Eastern Med 中對氣體進行了跟進。

Okay. Well, high level, we certainly have seen a very unusual and volatile year in '22, which has settled out here as we've come into the winter, primarily as we've seen a bit milder winter in the northern hemisphere than is typical. And as in Europe, the successful build of inventories for this year and the reduction of industrial demand have both resulted in an outlook that is less dire for the European economies, then it may have looked like several months ago.

好的。好吧，高水平，我們肯定在 22 年看到了非常不尋常和動蕩的一年，隨著我們進入冬天，它已經在這里安定下來，主要是因為我們看到北半球的冬天比典型的要溫和一些.與歐洲一樣，今年庫存的成功增加和工業需求的減少都使歐洲經濟體的前景不像幾個月前那樣可怕。

And so I think the market reflects all of that. You also have the fact that China has been -- the economy has been slow throughout the year, which is -- looks to be turning around. And so I think it's good that markets have calmed. I mean the high prices really were creating a lot of stresses out there that are not good. And I hope we see these prices stay in a more moderate range as we enter 2023.

所以我認為市場反映了所有這些。你還有這樣一個事實，即中國經濟全年都在放緩，這看起來正在好轉。所以我認為市場平靜是件好事。我的意思是，高價格確實造成了很多不利的壓力。我希望我們看到這些價格在進入 2023 年時保持在更適中的範圍內。

Our posture is largely as we've described it before, we're primarily contracted on oil index pricing, biggest piece, obviously, out of Australia. We do have -- we ran really well in Australia last year, a record number of cargoes and so there were some spot cargoes in the mix out of Australia, out of West Africa, we've got a little more spot exposure in Angola and now with Equatorial Guinea as well. But think of us as primarily oil-linked. And we've got some sensitivities, I think that Pierre has put out there, and we've reiterated some of those in the guidance today that should help you model these things based on your assumptions on gas prices.

我們的態勢在很大程度上與我們之前所描述的一樣，我們主要在石油指數定價方面簽約，顯然，最大的一塊來自澳大利亞。我們確實有 - 去年我們在澳大利亞的表現非常好，貨物數量創歷史新高，因此澳大利亞，西非的混合現貨貨物中有一些，我們在安哥拉和現在還有赤道幾內亞。但是，請將我們視為主要與石油相關的。我們有一些敏感性，我認為皮埃爾已經提出了，我們今天在指南中重申了一些敏感性，這些敏感性應該可以幫助您根據您對天然氣價格的假設對這些事情進行建模。

And that's the follow-up. You have a large gas position in the Eastern Mediterranean following the noble acquisition with Leviathan and Tamar and some discoveries out there as well. So how do you think about prosecuting that asset? Where does it fall in terms of prioritization? And how big can it be?

這就是後續行動。在與 Leviathan 和 Tamar 的高貴收購以及在那裡的一些發現之後，您在東地中海擁有大量天然氣。那麼，您如何看待起訴該資產？它在優先級方面落在哪裡？它有多大？

Yes. It's a high priority. We took FID at the end of last year on a project to expand Tamar from -- on a 100% basis, 1.1 to 1.6 Bcf per day. The first gas on that should come online in early 2025. We are working on development options to expand Leviathan. Those are still being worked and we should narrow the concepts on that later this year and reach some decisions in terms of how we intend to do that.

是的。這是一個高優先級。去年年底，我們在一個項目上進行了 FID，以 100% 的基礎，每天 1.1 至 1.6 Bcf 擴大 Tamar。第一個氣體應該在 2025 年初上線。我們正在研究擴展 Leviathan 的開發選項。這些仍在進行中，我們應該在今年晚些時候縮小概念範圍，並就我們打算如何做到這一點做出一些決定。

The Norgas discovery, it's just one well at this point, but it encountered a significant section of high-quality gas-bearing sandstone. So very attractive. We're talking to our partner there about appraisal and development concepts that will follow. So that region -- and of course, we've got a number of additional exploration blocks further to the west in the Mediterranean that we've not yet put any wells into but we've got seismic and we're developing our exploration plans and you'll hear more about that as we go forward. So it's a high priority. The region needs gas, both regionally in the Middle East, but also then obviously options to try to get that gas into Europe. And so the noble acquisition was really advantageous from that standpoint, and we're optimistic about the prospectivity of some of these additional exploration blocks.

Norgas發現，目前只是一口井，卻遇到了相當大一段優質含氣砂岩。所以非常有吸引力。我們正在與那裡的合作夥伴討論隨後的評估和開發概念。所以那個地區——當然，我們在地中海西部還有一些額外的勘探區塊，我們還沒有打任何井，但我們已經有了地震，我們正在製定我們的勘探計劃隨著我們的前進，您會聽到更多相關信息。所以這是一個高優先級。該地區需要天然氣，既需要中東地區的天然氣，也需要將天然氣輸送到歐洲的明顯選擇。因此，從這個角度來看，貴族收購確實是有利的，我們對其中一些額外勘探區塊的前景持樂觀態度。

We'll take our next question from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate 的下一個問題。

Roderick, I'd like to also pass on my thanks. You've transformed Chevron and those Investor Relations. Thank you for all your help.

羅德里克，我也想表達我的謝意。你改變了雪佛龍和那些投資者關係。謝謝你的幫助。

Guys, I wonder if I could go back to the buyback. I just want to try and understand a little bit about the comment around really just how you think about the purpose of the buyback. Is this really about dividend management at this point? Because it seems to us that if you take your Brent sensitivity into account, the run rate at the high end of the range puts you about a $90 breakeven on your oil price. And I'm just wondering if this is about value or about managing confidence in future dividend growth.

伙計們，我想知道我是否可以回到回購。我只是想嘗試了解一下關於您如何看待回購目的的評論。這真的是關於股息管理嗎？因為在我們看來，如果考慮到對布倫特原油的敏感度，處於區間高端的運行率會讓你的油價達到約 90 美元的收支平衡。我只是想知道這是關於價值還是關於管理對未來股息增長的信心。

Well, let me try to be clear on this, Doug. We do not do buybacks to manage dividends. Dividend -- absolute dividend load is an outcome. It's not a reason that you would do buybacks. Our dividend growth expresses confidence in the ability to grow free cash flow at mid-cycle prices, and it is a long-term decision, a long, long, long-term decision. We haven't cut the dividend since the great depression. Pierre mentioned, we've increased the payout 36 years in a row now.

好吧，讓我試著弄清楚這一點，道格。我們不會通過回購來管理股息。股息——絕對股息負荷是一種結果。這不是你回購的理由。我們的股息增長表達了對以周期中期價格增長自由現金流的能力的信心，這是一個長期的決定，一個長期、長期、長期的決定。自大蕭條以來，我們沒有削減股息。皮埃爾提到，我們現在已經連續 36 年增加支出。

Buybacks are different. They signal confidence that we're going to generate excess free cash flow, where we've got excess balance sheet capacity, which we have significant capacity in the current commodity cycle. And as we satisfy our commitments on the dividend, our reinvestment plans in a disciplined manner to grow free cash flows and maintain that strong balance sheet, we've got the capacity then to buy shares back through the cycle. An outcome of buybacks is a lower absolute dividend, but it's not the driver. And so I don't want -- there should be no confusion about that. We've got confidence in our dividend increases, whether we're buying shares back or not. We wouldn't increase the dividend if we didn't have that confidence. And so the 2 are not linked in that manner.

回購是不同的。他們表示有信心我們將產生過剩的自由現金流，我們有過剩的資產負債表能力，我們在當前的商品週期中有很大的能力。當我們履行對股息的承諾時，我們以有紀律的方式進行再投資計劃以增加自由現金流並維持強勁的資產負債表，然後我們就有能力在整個週期中回購股票。回購的結果是絕對股息降低，但這不是驅動因素。所以我不希望 - 不應對此產生混淆。我們對股息的增加充滿信心，無論我們是否回購股票。如果我們沒有這種信心，我們就不會增加股息。所以 2 沒有以這種方式鏈接。

That's very clear. My follow-up is a bit unfair given your Analyst Day is a month away, but I'm going to give this a go anyway. But -- so if you made the point in your balance sheet is in terrific shape, obviously. You've got a lot of capacity there. But also, if I go back to that. let's say the $90 breakeven, all I'm doing is taking that $15 billion run rate, $400 million a year and adding it to the $50 breakeven -- $90. What does that say about your outlook for maybe stepping up growth capital?

這很清楚。考慮到你的分析師日還有一個月，我的後續行動有點不公平，但我還是要試一試。但是 - 所以，如果你在資產負債表中指出這一點，顯然是非常好的。你那裡有很多容量。但是，如果我回到那個。比方說 90 美元的盈虧平衡點，我所做的就是採用 150 億美元的運行率，每年 4 億美元，並將其添加到 50 美元的盈虧平衡點——90 美元。這對您可能增加增長資本的前景有何看法？

That would seem to imply that the growth capital of the $17 billion CapEx number is probably what we should expect going forward. Is that the right way to think about it? Or should we wait until the end of the month or the end of February?

這似乎意味著 170 億美元的資本支出數字的增長資本可能是我們應該期待的。這是正確的思考方式嗎？還是要等到月底或二月底？

Yes. I mean, we'll talk about it more in February. I'm not sure I followed all your math there, but we're growing. We had a 3% compound annual growth rate at $15 billion to $17 billion of CapEx in a market that's not growing that fast. We're growing well better than the overall demand for oil or for gas, which is growing faster than oil is. And so we are growing production, but what we're really focused on is growing returns and cash flow.

是的。我的意思是，我們將在 2 月更多地討論它。我不確定我是否聽懂了你所有的數學，但我們正在成長。在一個增長速度不那麼快的市場中，我們的資本支出為 150 億美元至 170 億美元，複合年增長率為 3%。我們的增長遠好於對石油或天然氣的總體需求，後者的增長速度比石油快。所以我們正在增加產量，但我們真正關注的是增加回報和現金流。

And if we can grow returns and cash flow, the equation works. And so I -- we'll be happy to talk about this more when we're together at the end of the month, but -- or at the end of next month. But we can grow cash flow, we can improve returns at the rate that we're spending at. And so I don't know why there would be a questions about our ability to do that and the production numbers and outcome of those decisions. It's not the goal.

如果我們能夠增加回報和現金流，那麼這個等式就成立了。所以我——當我們在月底聚在一起時，我們會很樂意更多地討論這個問題，但是——或者在下個月底。但我們可以增加現金流，我們可以按照我們的支出速度提高回報。所以我不知道為什麼會有關於我們這樣做的能力以及這些決定的生產數量和結果的問題。這不是目標。

We'll take our next question from John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們將從摩根大通的 John Royall 那裡回答下一個問題。

So maybe just kind of a spin on Doug's question. So with the balance sheet at 3%, is there a point where you think of yourself is actually underlevered and I realize that's a good problem to have. But if you ever got to that point with the mechanism be to get leverage higher by increasing the buyback? Or how do you think about that generally is the 3% kind of where you want to be?

所以也許只是對 Doug 的問題的一種轉述。因此，在資產負債表為 3% 的情況下，您是否認為自己實際上槓桿不足，我意識到這是一個很好的問題。但是，如果你達到了這一點，那麼機制就是通過增加回購來提高槓桿率？或者您如何看待您通常想要達到的 3%？

This is Pierre. I'll take that. Our guidance is for the net debt ratio to be between 20% and 25% and mid-cycle conditions. And as you said, we're at 3%, so we're much stronger than that. And that's what happens in the short term. So Mike has talked about our financial priorities. They're simple. We've been consistent with them for a very long time. And 3 of the 4 are pegged. We just increased our dividend 6%. We have a 23 CapEx budget of $14 billion. We've given guidance that keeps that CapEx flat over the next several years. And we have the buybacks at the top end of the guidance range of $15 billion.

這是皮埃爾。我會接受的。我們的指導意見是淨負債率在 20% 至 25% 之間，處於週期中期。正如你所說，我們只有 3%，所以我們比那強得多。這就是短期內發生的事情。所以邁克談到了我們的財務優先事項。他們很簡單。很長一段時間以來，我們一直與他們保持一致。 4 個中的 3 個已掛鉤。我們剛剛將股息提高了 6%。我們的 23 資本支出預算為 140 億美元。我們已經給出了在未來幾年保持資本支出持平的指導意見。我們的回購金額處於 150 億美元指導範圍的上限。

So swings in cash flow in the short term, will go to the balance sheet. And that's because commodity prices and margins, we just were talking about natural gas prices and refining margins and things are moving up and down. But over the long term, those cash flows will be returned to shareholders. And so we want to do it in a way that is steady across the cycle. As Mike said, we don't want to be pro-cyclical. And by the way, we haven't, right? Our track record shows that over the past nearly 2 decades that we've been able to buy actually below what the market average price has been.

所以短期內現金流的波動，會進入資產負債表。那是因為大宗商品價格和利潤率，我們剛剛談論的是天然氣價格和煉油利潤率，事情正在上下波動。但從長遠來看，這些現金流將返還給股東。因此，我們希望以一種在整個週期中保持穩定的方式來做到這一點。正如邁克所說，我們不想順週期。順便說一句，我們沒有，對吧？我們的記錄顯示，在過去近 20 年中，我們實際上能夠以低於市場平均價格的價格購買。

So the intent is to, yes, we'll be a little strong balance sheet depending on commodity prices and margins and how strong our operations have been. But then over time, the cycle will correct and then we'll continue buying back shares. We've said we could have a higher buyback rate right now. We're sizing it at a level to maintain it for multiple years across the cycle. That means there'll be a time period where we'll be buying back shares off the balance sheet, and we'll lever back up closer to that 20% to 25% guidance. Thanks, John.

因此，我們的目的是，是的，我們將根據大宗商品價格和利潤率以及我們的運營狀況有多強，打造一個稍微強勁的資產負債表。但隨著時間的推移，這個週期將會糾正，然後我們將繼續回購股票。我們已經說過我們現在可以有更高的回購率。我們正在調整它的大小，以在整個週期內維持多年。這意味著我們將在一段時間內從資產負債表上回購股票，並且我們將提高槓桿率以接近 20% 至 25% 的指導。謝謝，約翰。

Very clear. And just a follow-up on the TCO project. I was hoping you could give an update on the CPC terminal operationally and kind of where that stands? And then what type of discounts are you seeing at that terminal right now? I think you called out a few quarters ago or maybe 2 quarters ago that it was $6 or $7 per barrel. I imagine that's come in a bit. So where is that discount today? And how is that terminal operating.

非常清楚。並且只是 TCO 項目的後續行動。我希望你能在操作上提供 CPC 終端的更新，以及它的位置？那麼您現在在該航站樓看到的是什麼類型的折扣？我想你在幾個季度前或兩個季度前就曾說過每桶 6 美元或 7 美元。我想這有點進來了。那麼今天的折扣在哪裡？那個終端是如何運作的。

Yes. So last year, there was probably more news than there was impact on a variety of issues relative to the pipeline and the terminal. There was work going on in the kind of late third and into the fourth quarter on the 2 of the 3 single point moorings. All that work is done. All 3 SPMs are operational today. There are no constraints on loading. There are no constraints on throughput on the pipe.

是的。所以去年，與管道和終端相關的各種問題的消息可能多於影響。在 3 個單點停泊點中的第 2 個，在第三節末和第四節進行了一些工作。所有這些工作都完成了。所有 3 個 SPM 今天都在運行。加載沒有限制。管道上的吞吐量沒有限制。

Despite a lot of the things that people heard and worried about last year, the pipeline was very reliable. Our production was impacted less than 10,000 barrels a day over the course of the year. It was only a few weeks in March and April. And so everything there is running very smoothly now, and we don't see any constraints.

儘管去年人們聽到並擔心了很多事情，但管道非常可靠。在這一年中，我們每天受影響的產量不到 10,000 桶。三月和四月只有幾個星期。所以現在一切都非常順利，我們看不到任何限制。

Discounts have come in a little bit on CPC. In the immediate aftermath of some of the sanctions and changes related to Ukraine. We saw a trading range that was like $4 to $10 below dated Brent. And before the conflict began, it was plus or minus $1. We're seeing kind of $1 to $3 discounts now. So maybe not quite at pre-invasion levels but not as deep as they were immediately afterwards. And given the overall flat price environment and the way it has strengthened the impact to [CCO] is relatively muted.

CPC 有一些折扣。在與烏克蘭有關的一些制裁和變化之後立即發生。我們看到交易區間比即期布倫特原油低 4 到 10 美元。在衝突開始之前，它正負 1 美元。我們現在看到 1 到 3 美元的折扣。因此，可能不完全處於入侵前的水平，但也沒有入侵後那麼深。考慮到整體價格環境及其加強對 [CCO] 影響的方式，相對較小。

We'll take our next question from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們將從富國銀行的 Roger Read 那裡回答我們的下一個問題。

Just looking at, let's call it, refined product demand. You talked about gas demand earlier. I'm just curious, as you look around the world, we've got positives moving away from COVID on a year-over-year comparison and then everybody's got high expectations for the China reopening. I was just curious, as you look across your operating base, what you're seeing there?

只是看著，我們稱之為精緻的產品需求。您之前談到了天然氣需求。我只是很好奇，當你環顧世界時，與去年同期相比，我們已經從 COVID 中得到了積極的影響，然後每個人都對中國重新開放抱有很高的期望。我只是很好奇，當您查看您的運營基地時，您在那裡看到了什麼？

Yes. Overall, Roger, gasoline demand, I'll start there. Still just a touch below pre-pandemic levels, fourth quarter of '22 maybe 2% or 3% below fourth quarter of '19. If you look at diesel, demand is pretty flat versus pre-pandemic. Jet recovering, but still below and so at the highest level, we're kind of still flattish to recovering from pre-Covid. I think that's why there is concern that as China's economy really does come through and return to a more normal level, that we could see increased demand start to pull on these markets again.

是的。總的來說，羅傑，汽油需求，我將從那裡開始。仍然略低於大流行前的水平，22 年第四季度可能比 19 年第四季度低 2% 或 3%。如果你看看柴油，需求與大流行前相比相當平淡。 Jet 正在恢復，但仍低於最高水平，我們對從 pre-Covid 中恢復有點持平。我認為這就是為什麼人們擔心隨著中國經濟真的挺過來並恢復到更正常的水平，我們可能會看到需求增加開始再次拉動這些市場。

You've seen announcements out of China about their intention. We see international flights and air travel now being scheduled at much higher levels than we've seen before long. And if you see the kind of rebound spending and activity in that economy that we've seen in other economies around the world, that's one of the things that could [boid] the global economy and firm up demand for products.

你已經看到來自中國的關於他們意圖的公告。我們看到現在國際航班和航空旅行的安排比我們之前看到的要高得多。如果你看到我們在世界其他經濟體中看到的那種經濟體的支出和活動反彈，這就是可以 [boid] 全球經濟和增加產品需求的因素之一。

So there's still some variables in the equation. We're not past the risk of recession and clearly, central banks are still tightening to slow things in certain parts of the world. So there's some puts and takes. But net-net, this continues to trend in a recovering direction with the 2 biggest questions probably related to the 2 biggest economies, China and the U.S.

所以方程式中仍然存在一些變量。我們還沒有擺脫經濟衰退的風險，而且很明顯，中央銀行仍在緊縮政策以減緩世界某些地區的經濟增長。所以有一些投入和需要。但總的來說，這繼續朝著復甦的方向發展，其中兩個最大的問題可能與中國和美國這兩個最大的經濟體有關。

Always the big guys, right? A follow-up question to come back to the Permian, and I recognize the Investor Day coming. But Pierre, when we were at the sell-side dinner end of November, there was a lot of discussion over kind of the changing in the range and how that was really just a function of messaging more so than overall change in the way you're developing the Permian, kind of following from that to the comments about things a little different in the bench and the DUC comparisons year-over-year. You look at it as any different from the messaging at the end of November? Or is this -- is there something else here with.

總是大人物，對吧？回到二疊紀的後續問題，我認識到投資者日即將到來。但是皮埃爾，當我們在 11 月底的賣方晚宴上時，有很多關於範圍變化的討論，以及這實際上只是一種消息傳遞的功能，而不是你的方式的整體變化。重新開發 Permian，從那開始對板凳上的事情有點不同的評論和 DUC 逐年比較。您認為它與 11 月底的消息傳遞有何不同？或者這是——這裡還有其他東西嗎？

No, nothing different. We'll show that at our Investor Day. Again, we were in the middle of the range. You can see the fourth quarter number was 738. So that was strong. We had some learnings, as Mike said, in 2022, and we've adjusted our plans to go to deeper targets and more single bench developments and that results in a little longer drilling times and a few more rig moves and we'll update all that. And all that is obviously included in our production guidance. So we'll continue to learn and adapt in the Permian. It's a large royalty advantage position. It's an asset that delivers higher returns and lower carbon. It's a big source of free cash flow.

不，沒什麼不同。我們將在投資者日展示這一點。同樣，我們處於範圍的中間。你可以看到第四季度的數字是 738。所以這很強勁。正如 Mike 所說，我們在 2022 年學到了一些東西，我們已經調整了我們的計劃，以實現更深的目標和更多的單一台階開發，這導致鑽井時間更長一些，鑽井平台移動更多，我們將更新所有那。所有這些顯然都包含在我們的生產指南中。所以我們將在二疊紀繼續學習和適應。這是一個巨大的特許權優勢地位。它是一種提供更高回報和更低碳的資產。這是自由現金流的重要來源。

Our free cash flow growth over the next 5 years is really driven by Permian, Tengiz, Gulf of Mexico, a few other assets. And it's remarkable to have an asset that can grow at that rate and do it free cash flow positive the whole time and free cash flow growing the whole time. So it will ebb and flow a little bit as we learn more, but what you'll see at our Investor Day, something very consistent with what we're saying today and what we said in the past.

我們未來 5 年的自由現金流增長實際上是由二疊紀、田吉茲、墨西哥灣和其他一些資產推動的。擁有能夠以這種速度增長並且自由現金流一直為正並且自由現金流一直增長的資產是非常了不起的。因此，隨著我們了解更多，它會起伏不定，但你會在我們的投資者日看到，這與我們今天所說的和過去所說的非常一致。

And Roger, just to emphasize the point I made earlier to another one of the questions, we remain focused on returns and value, not on production. And so that is the -- that's what drives all of this. Thanks.

羅傑，為了強調我之前對另一個問題提出的觀點，我們仍然關注回報和價值，而不是生產。這就是 - 這就是推動所有這一切的原因。謝謝。

We'll take our next question from Irene Himona with Societe General.

我們將與 Societe General 一起接受 Irene Himona 的下一個問題。

Thank you very much for taking my questions which are both related. So I will ask both at the same time. So firstly, thinking about balance sheet strength, of course, the other use it can be put to is M&A. You've been very disciplined with your M&A timings, both with Noble and REGI. How do you see the current market in these 2, let's say, [POTS] legacy oil and gas versus low carbon. And then secondly, has the IRA Act perhaps changed your appetite for faster expansion in low carbon businesses, please?

非常感謝您提出我的問題，這兩個問題都是相關的。所以我會同時問兩個。所以首先，考慮資產負債表的實力，當然，它的另一個用途是併購。你對來寶和 REGI 的併購時機都非常有紀律。你如何看待這兩個市場的當前市場，比方說，[POTS] 傳統石油和天然氣與低碳。其次，IRA 法案是否可能改變了您對低碳業務更快擴張的胃口？

Thank you, Irene. So we do have the capacity to do M&A. We don't need to do M&A. And so we'll only do deals that are value-creating deals. You interestingly contrast the traditional oil and gas market with the new energies market. What I would observe is given commodity price strength in oil and gas, we've seen companies that previously might have been languishing from a value standpoint, strengthen. And I think there's some optimism in the eyes of other companies about the future. And so the bid asks read on oil and gas companies is maybe a little wider right now given the strength versus when we did our deal a couple of years ago.

謝謝你，艾琳。所以我們確實有能力進行併購。我們不需要進行併購。因此，我們只會進行創造價值的交易。您有趣地將傳統石油和天然氣市場與新能源市場進行了對比。我會觀察到，鑑於石油和天然氣的大宗商品價格走強，我們已經看到以前可能從價值角度來看一直萎靡不振的公司正在走強。我認為其他公司眼中對未來有些樂觀。因此，考慮到與幾年前我們進行交易時相比的實力，現在對石油和天然氣公司的出價要求可能會更寬一些。

In lower carbon, with interest rates rising and specs kind of receding and the like. A little bit of the kind of froth may have come out of that market, but there are still some optimism in valuations there as well. And so we'll be very thoughtful and careful as we evaluate those. And there are a lot of companies out there that have got business models in this space. So we watch them all. We will be back to talk to you if we have anything that's interesting.

在低碳方面，隨著利率上升和規格下降等。該市場可能已經出現了一些泡沫，但市場估值仍存在一些樂觀情緒。因此，我們在評估這些時會非常周到和謹慎。並且有很多公司在這個領域擁有商業模式。所以我們看著他們。如果我們有任何有趣的事情，我們會回來與您交談。

Let me touch on IRA and then ask Pierre to add a little more color. The IRA will probably accelerate some activity in the U.S. There's no doubt. Hopefully, what that does is it allows technologies to be derisked. The cost of technologies to be reduced and the attractiveness of these investments to improve. A bill like that with all kind of a grab bag of different policy incentives doesn't necessarily change our long-term view on how we want to build businesses. It does perhaps change the trajectory at which some of those businesses become more economically viable. And if that's the case, that could feed through into our similar investment decision. But it's kind of a second order effect rather than a first order effect.

讓我談談 IRA，然後讓 Pierre 添加更多顏色。毫無疑問，愛爾蘭共和軍可能會加速美國的一些活動。希望這樣做的目的是讓技術被降低風險。降低技術成本，提高這些投資的吸引力。像這樣包含各種不同政策激勵措施的法案並不一定會改變我們對如何建立企業的長期看法。它或許確實改變了其中一些企業在經濟上變得更加可行的軌跡。如果是這樣的話，這可能會影響到我們類似的投資決策。但這是一種二階效應而不是一階效應。

And just to add some of the other important effects, permitting really critical for traditional energy, super critical for new energy, new technology developments. You've seen us make some investments on technology to reduce the cost of capture of CO2 and then scale, getting cost down. So it's helpful, but it's just one element, as Mike said.

再加上一些其他的重要影響，允許對傳統能源非常關鍵，對新能源、新技術發展非常關鍵。你已經看到我們在技術上進行了一些投資，以降低捕獲二氧化碳的成本，然後擴大規模，降低成本。所以它很有幫助，但正如 Mike 所說，它只是一個要素。

We'll take our next question from Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

我們將接受 Ryan Todd 和 Piper Sandler 的下一個問題。

Maybe if I could ask a couple on the downstream side. First, there's been a lot of noise earlier this year about refinery maintenance activity looking to be well above average in the U.S., particularly in the first half of the year, especially amongst independent refiners. Your first quarter guidance seems to suggest turnaround activity in 1Q that's reasonably light or at least not terribly heavy. Any thoughts on whether 2020 -- year 2023 outlook as a whole for Chevron looks normal or heavy in terms of refining and maintenance and then maybe more broadly, how you see general tightness in global refining markets this year over the course of 2023.

也許我可以問下游的一對夫婦。首先，今年早些時候有很多關於美國煉油廠維護活動看起來遠高於平均水平的聲音，尤其是在今年上半年，尤其是在獨立煉油廠中。您的第一季度指引似乎表明第一季度的扭虧為盈活動相當輕鬆，或者至少不是非常沉重。關於雪佛龍 2020 年到 2023 年的整體前景在煉油和維護方面看起來是正常還是沉重的任何想法，然後可能更廣泛地說，你如何看待今年全球煉油市場在 2023 年期間的總體緊張情況。

Yes. I would say it's a pretty typical year for turnaround activity. We've got the FCC at El Segundo in the first quarter of this year, which Pierre mentioned in his comments. But there's nothing unusual in our turnaround plan for this year. What you do see across the U.S. and I think in some of the other markets are 2 things that are really kind of still echoes of COVID. One is you're just seeing capacity go out of the system. And two, you see maintenance that was deferred during COVID is -- had to be rescheduled and replanned. And so there's probably still a bit of a bow wave of pushing through the system in some places of activity that needs to get done for safety and reliability and regulatory reasons. And so that could be driving some of the speculation. I can't really comment on other companies' plans. I'll let you talk to them about that.

是的。我會說這是扭虧為盈的典型年份。今年第一季度，我們在 El Segundo 獲得了 FCC，Pierre 在他的評論中提到了這一點。但我們今年的周轉計劃並沒有什麼不尋常之處。你在美國看到的，我認為在其他一些市場，有兩件事確實是 COVID 的迴聲。一是你只是看到容量用完了系統。第二，你看到在 COVID 期間被推遲的維護 - 必須重新安排和重新計劃。因此，出於安全、可靠性和監管原因，在某些需要完成的活動中，可能仍有一些推動系統的弓潮。因此，這可能會引發一些猜測。我真的不能評論其他公司的計劃。我會讓你和他們談談這件事。

And then maybe on the other side of your downstream business on the chemical side, it's clearly been weeks for the last little while. Looking forward from here, is the combination of lower natural gas prices and the reopening of China having any impact on how you see margins moving throughout 2023? Or do you anticipate that oversupply keep things weaker throughout the year?

然後也許在您的下游業務的另一端，在化學方面，很明顯過去幾週已經過去了。從這裡展望未來，天然氣價格下跌和中國重新開放的結合是否對您對整個 2023 年利潤率的變化有任何影響？還是您預計供過於求會使全年疲軟？

These tend to be long period cycles for the most part, Ryan. And so at the margin, I think that's economic growth and development in China is a positive. But you don't slide into the lower part of the cycle quickly or easily, and you generally don't come out of it quickly or easily. So these things track over a longer period of time. And so I do think we're -- it feels like we're kind of bumping along near the bottom here, but I don't know that there's a steep climb out as opposed to a gradual climb over time.

在大多數情況下，這些往往是長期週期，Ryan。所以在邊際上，我認為中國的經濟增長和發展是積極的。但是你不會很快或很容易地滑入周期的較低部分，而且你通常不會很快或很容易地從中走出來。所以這些東西會跟踪更長的時間。所以我確實認為我們 - 感覺就像我們在這裡的底部附近顛簸，但我不知道隨著時間的推移會有一個陡峭的爬升而不是逐漸爬升。

We'll take our next question from Jason Gabelman with Cowen.

我們將與 Cowen 一起接受 Jason Gabelman 的下一個問題。

I wanted to first follow up on the affiliate distribution guidance because it is taking a step higher year-over-year, and it sounds like that was due to TCO having excess cash. Is that kind of $5 billion to $6 billion, something you can maintain assuming oil price stays stable until the project actually starts up until TCO, FGP starts up or would you expect that to fall off after this year?

我想首先跟進附屬分銷指南，因為它比去年同期高了一步，這聽起來像是由於 TCO 有多餘的現金。那是 50 億到 60 億美元，假設油價保持穩定，直到項目實際啟動，直到 TCO、FGP 啟動，您可以維持這種規模，還是您預計今年之後會下降？

And then my second question is on a different topic, Venezuela. I believe you have now boots on the ground there again. Can you just discuss what you're seeing in terms of the health of the infrastructure there, the ability to ramp production and the desire from Chevron's standpoint to participate in that?

然後我的第二個問題是關於委內瑞拉的另一個主題。我相信你現在又在地面上有了靴子。你能談談你在基礎設施的健康狀況、提高產量的能力以及雪佛龍參與其中的願望方面所看到的嗎？

On affiliate dividends, there are 2 main factors, why the guidance this year is higher than last year. You hit one of them on TCO, not held excess cash last year.

關於附屬股息，有兩個主要因素，為什麼今年的指導高於去年。你在 TCO 上擊中了其中一個，去年沒有持有多餘的現金。

The second big one is Angola LNG. You recall, a lot of their cash distributions were actually return to capital. It's an accounting concept tied to whether you have book equity or positive book equity or not now, they're in that space. So we expect most, if not all, of the cash coming from Angola LNG in '23 to be characterized as dividends. It was cash either way. It's just one shows up in cash from ops, the other one shows up in a different part of the cash flow statement, but that's the second driver.

第二大是安哥拉液化天然氣。你還記得嗎，他們的很多現金分配實際上都是資本回報。這是一個會計概念，與您現在是否擁有賬面資產或正賬面資產相關，它們就在那個領域。因此，我們預計 23 年來自安哥拉液化天然氣的大部分（如果不是全部）現金將被描述為股息。無論哪種方式都是現金。它只是一個出現在運營現金中，另一個出現在現金流量表的不同部分，但這是第二個驅動因素。

And in terms of the direction, I mean, this guidance is kind of notionally at the current -- futures curve around $80. So it depends on commodity prices and margins. There are some downstream affiliates in there, and there are some chemicals, obviously, in there. But we talked about TCO. I mean, TCO's heading up, right? As CapEx comes down and production comes up, we expect more dividends out of TCO going forward. And then again, we have the loan that we also expect TCO to pay back during the next several years.

就方向而言，我的意思是，這個指導在理論上是在當前——80 美元左右的期貨曲線上。所以這取決於商品價格和利潤率。那裡有一些下游附屬公司，顯然那裡有一些化學品。但我們談到了 TCO。我的意思是，TCO 正在上升，對吧？隨著資本支出下降和產量上升，我們預計未來 TCO 會帶來更多紅利。再說一次，我們還希望 TCO 在未來幾年內償還貸款。

Yes, Jason, on Venezuela, we always did have boots on the ground. We just were very limited in where those boots could go and what they could do. The shift in the sanctions policy has opened up a little more room. It's allowed us to work with PDVSA to put some of our people into different roles in these mixed companies there. So we do have a little more ability to have influence and involvement in some of the decision making.

是的，傑森，在委內瑞拉，我們總是在地面上有靴子。我們對這些靴子的去向和作用非常有限。制裁政策的轉變打開了更多的空間。它使我們能夠與 PDVSA 合作，讓我們的一些人在這些混合公司中擔任不同的角色。所以我們確實有更多的能力來影響和參與一些決策。

Your question about the state of the infrastructure, there's been a lack of investments there for a number of years in the infrastructure reflects that, and it will take time for things to turn around. We have seen some positive production response already in the entities that we're involved in. They're producing about 90,000 barrels a day now, which is up about 40,000 barrels a day since we saw the change in these license terms. So that's been a good short-term effect. I'm not going to say you can extrapolate that, but it's where we are today. We are continuing to work on the ground to expand production, but it's too early to guide to anything. We're also lifting oil and bringing it to the U.S. We've got a couple of cargoes coming into our Pascagoula refinery. We're going to be delivering cargoes to other customers on the Gulf Coast. And then the revenues go into a series of structured channels to pay expenses and other obligations.

你關於基礎設施狀況的問題，多年來在基礎設施方面缺乏投資反映了這一點，並且需要時間才能扭轉局面。我們已經在我們參與的實體中看到一些積極的生產反應。他們現在每天生產約 90,000 桶，自從我們看到這些許可條款發生變化以來，每天增加約 40,000 桶。所以這是一個很好的短期效果。我不會說你可以推斷出這一點，但這就是我們今天所處的位置。我們將繼續在實地開展工作以擴大生產，但現在指導任何事情還為時過早。我們還提煉石油並將其運往美國。我們有幾批貨物進入我們的 Pascagoula 煉油廠。我們將向墨西哥灣沿岸的其他客戶運送貨物。然後收入進入一系列結構化渠道以支付費用和其他義務。

On the accounting standpoint, we're using cost affiliate accounting. So we'll record earnings only if we receive cash. And at this point, I would say the cash flows are expected to be modest. So this is a step-wise change in the environment there. We're going to go into it thoughtfully. It's a 6-month license, and it's a dynamic environment. So we'll continue to advise you as we learn more and as things evolve.

從會計的角度來看，我們使用的是成本關聯會計。所以我們只有在收到現金時才會記錄收益。在這一點上，我想說現金流量預計是適度的。所以這是那裡環境的逐步變化。我們將深思熟慮地進入它。這是一個 6 個月的許可證，而且是一個動態的環境。因此，隨著我們了解更多以及事情的發展，我們會繼續為您提供建議。

We'll take our next question from Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

我們將接受來自 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin 的下一個問題。

I'll ask about the Rockies. The Rockies is interesting. It's a place where you could maybe add a little bit of activity to face your aggregate Lower 48 activity levels, but without some of the inflationary pressures and just infrastructure tightness in the Permian and inventory depth there is good. Is the Rockies a place where there may be a little bit of extra focus. And I ask that in the context of sort of the broader theme around your overall resource depth and production and all these topics that are sort of flowing into the broader conversation today.

我會問問落基山脈。落基山脈很有趣。在這個地方，您可以增加一點活動來應對較低的 48 個活動水平，但沒有一些通貨膨脹壓力，二疊紀和庫存深度的基礎設施緊縮情況很好。落基山脈是一個可能需要額外關注的地方嗎？我問這個問題是在圍繞你的整體資源深度和生產的更廣泛主題的背景下，以及所有這些主題都在今天進入更廣泛的對話中。

Yes, absolutely, Sam. We got over 320,000 net acres there. Last year, we started out with one rig and one frac crew. We ended the year with 3 rigs and 2 frac crews working and the plan for this year is activity in that level. So it's been a positive movement in terms of activity and production expectations there.

是的，當然，山姆。我們在那裡獲得了超過 320,000 英畝的淨土地。去年，我們從一個鑽井平台和一個壓裂人員開始。年底，我們有 3 個鑽井平台和 2 個壓裂工作人員在工作，今年的計劃是在該水平上開展活動。因此，就那裡的活動和生產預期而言，這是一個積極的變化。

It's a really nice resource. It's a low carbon resource. It's a -- we got a lot of this is powered off the grid. There's been some permitting questions about this in the past. There's been large areas done under development plans, and we've got permits well out into the future and continue to work that closely with the authorities there. So it's one we can talk about a little bit more at Investor Day. It's a really positive part of addition to our portfolio out of Noble and the Eastern Med gets a lot of attention, but we're very excited about the DJ.

這是一個非常好的資源。這是一種低碳資源。這是一個——我們有很多是斷電的。過去有一些關於此的許可問題。根據開發計劃已經完成了大片區域，我們已經獲得了未來的許可，並繼續與那裡的當局密切合作。所以我們可以在投資者日多談一點。這是 Noble 加入我們產品組合的一個非常積極的部分，Eastern Med 得到了很多關注，但我們對 DJ 感到非常興奮。

Okay. And yes, just a follow-up. I mean, because obviously, between -- I think you can surmise the reserve numbers getting some attention to the overall pace of activity and production trends over the long term are getting attention. But we'll get to this at the Analyst Day, I'm sure. But is there a way right now where you can kind of add it all up and size the Gulf of Mexico, other shale and tight, Eastern Med gas and just kind of frame that aggregate resource number against maybe what you see in the portfolio today as tail resource and just speak to a final answer around your organic portfolio and how it extends.

好的。是的，只是後續行動。我的意思是，因為很明顯，在 - 我認為你可以推測儲備數字正在引起人們對長期活動和生產趨勢的整體步伐的關注。但我敢肯定，我們會在分析師日討論這個問題。但是現在有沒有一種方法可以將它們全部加起來並確定墨西哥灣、其他頁岩和緻密天然氣、Eastern Med 天然氣以及某種框架，該框架可以根據您今天在投資組合中看到的資源數量進行匯總尾部資源，並就您的有機產品組合及其擴展方式給出最終答案。

Yes. I might have Roderick work with you. So we're clear on the question when we get to the Investor Day on how to compare and size things relative to the portfolio. But we said today in our press release that we're very confident we're going to exceed our 3% compound annual growth rate over the next 5 years. You can't do that unless you get depth in the portfolio, which we have. And you got quality projects they're moving along on a good pace. And so I'll assure you that, that is the case. We will talk about this more at Investor Day, and you'll have a chance to kind of go deeper into it with our folks.

是的。我可能會讓羅德里克和你一起工作。因此，當我們進入投資者日時，我們很清楚這個問題，即如何比較和衡量與投資組合相關的事物。但我們今天在新聞稿中表示，我們非常有信心在未來 5 年內實現超過 3% 的複合年增長率。除非您深入了解我們擁有的投資組合，否則您無法做到這一點。你得到了高質量的項目，他們正在以良好的速度前進。所以我向你保證，情況確實如此。我們將在投資者日更多地討論這個問題，你將有機會與我們的人更深入地探討它。

We'll take our next question from Paul Sankey with Sankey Research.

我們將從 Sankey Research 的 Paul Sankey 那裡回答下一個問題。

Roderick, congratulations, all the best. Mike, I was a bit surprised by the major buyback announcement. Obviously, the $75 billion is very splashy. But within that, it seems that your guidance has remained that you'll be in the $5 billion to $15 billion a year range based on the Q1 guidance. Is there -- are you expecting to step that up? Or is this a 5-year authorization? And were you conscious that it would probably cause a lot of political backlash.

羅德里克，祝賀你，一切順利。邁克，我對主要回購公告感到有點驚訝。顯然，這750億美元是非常引人注目的。但在此範圍內，你的指導似乎仍然是，根據第一季度的指導，你將在每年 50 億美元至 150 億美元的範圍內。有沒有 - 你希望加強它嗎？或者這是一個5年的授權？你是否意識到這可能會引起很多政治反彈。

Yes. So Pierre answered the question earlier, it's not a 5-year authorization. It's an open-ended authorization. It is -- it's our intent to maintain it across the cycle. I'll just say that again. It's actually aligned with our upside and our downside cases from the '22 Investor Day and consistent with our track record of being in the market steadily buying $2 below the market over nearly the past 2 decades. And we could increase our guidance range, Paul. We need to be confident we could maintain that higher rate for multiple years across the cycle. And I think that you should read it as a signal of confidence and we'll continue to talk more.

是的。所以皮埃爾之前回答了這個問題，不是5年的授權。這是一個開放式授權。這是——我們打算在整個週期內維護它。我再說一遍。這實際上與我們在'22 投資者日的上行和下行案例一致，並且與我們在過去近 20 年中穩步以低於市場 2 美元的價格在市場上買入的記錄一致。保羅，我們可以擴大我們的指導範圍。我們需要相信我們可以在整個週期中多年保持較高的利率。我認為您應該將其視為信心的信號，我們將繼續討論更多內容。

We raised our buyback rate 3x last year. So we're not averse to doing that. And I would just say stay tuned. In terms of the reaction to it, I think it's perhaps been a touch overblown given that it's an open-ended program, and we could have size the smaller one and just been prepared to do another one sooner. Pierre said we're closing one out. We just looked at something that would last over a number of years, and we were trying to be splashy when we're trying to create any reaction out there. We're just trying to indicate the confidence we have in our cash generation.

去年我們將回購率提高了 3 倍。所以我們不反對這樣做。我只想說敬請期待。就對它的反應而言，我認為它可能有點誇大其詞，因為它是一個開放式計劃，我們可以將規模縮小一個，並準備好盡快進行另一個。皮埃爾說我們要關閉一個。我們只是看看會持續數年的東西，當我們試圖在那裡引起任何反應時，我們試圖表現得引人注目。我們只是想表明我們對現金產生的信心。

Understood. And offset to that, Mike, you're spending more on exploration. Could you just talk about the highlights that you see coming up in 2023. Obviously, we're aware of East Med, but there's other stuff out there and the spending has stepped up quite a lot, hasn't it?

明白了。與此相反，邁克，你在探索上花費了更多。您能否談談您在 2023 年看到的亮點。顯然，我們知道 East Med，但還有其他東西，而且支出增加了很多，不是嗎？

Yes. I don't know if I describe the spending as being up quite a lot. We've got a nice portfolio that we like. And I'll just touch on -- you mentioned Eastern Med. We still have a lot of blocks in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. We've got block in Suriname that we're still working on and that are on trend with some of the things in that region. We've picked up acreage in Namibia that's on trend with explorations in that part of the world as well. And so we got stuff in Brazil, we had stuff in Mexico that we acquired a few years prior to that. So we've got a nice portfolio of opportunities that we continue to work on, and we don't go out and drill the wells until we're ready to drill them. But it's spread across a number of basins where there's good working oil and gas systems. And the Norgas discovery is a recent example of what happens when you focus in those areas, and I'm optimistic that we're going to see more of that in the future.

是的。我不知道我是否將支出描述為增加了很多。我們有一個不錯的投資組合，我們喜歡。我只想談談——你提到了 Eastern Med。我們在墨西哥灣的深水區還有很多區塊。我們在蘇里南遇到了障礙，我們仍在努力，並且該地區的某些事物正處於趨勢之中。我們已經在納米比亞獲得了與世界那個地區的勘探趨勢一致的種植面積。因此，我們在巴西獲得了一些東西，我們在墨西哥獲得了幾年前獲得的東西。所以我們有一個很好的機會組合，我們會繼續努力，在我們準備好鑽井之前，我們不會出去鑽井。但它分佈在許多擁有良好油氣系統的盆地。 Norgas 的發現是最近的一個例子，說明當你關注這些領域時會發生什麼，我樂觀地認為我們將來會看到更多這樣的事情。

Our last question comes from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

我們的最後一個問題來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

So the first one is on the share count. Just going back to early 2022, there was a period where you're stepping up the buyback program, but the dilution from the employee options was offsetting that a little. So I'm just trying to understand, I know you took a charge today in the corporate line. Do you expect 2023 dilution to be a similar level to 2022? Or should it be lower? Just any sense on that would be helpful.

所以第一個是份額計數。回到 2022 年初，有一段時間你正在加強回購計劃，但員工期權的稀釋稍微抵消了這一點。所以我只是想了解一下，我知道你今天負責公司業務。您預計 2023 年的稀釋程度會與 2022 年相似嗎？還是應該更低？對此的任何感覺都會有所幫助。

We expect fewer employee and retiree exercises of stock options. That was extraordinary unusual in the first quarter. And it's a zero-sum game. In other words, if employees and retirees do it early, there's fewer to do going forward. But that will be up to them and the stock price performance. And the share buybacks, I mean, you just divide it depends on what our stock price is. We give guidance quarterly, and I think you can do the math. It is confusing the difference between average annual share count and where we end, right? So we are clearly taking our share count down. But when you look at average annuals, that's exactly what it implies. It's an annual each day, but the trend is going down. Our buybacks exceed the issuances and we expect that to continue.

我們預計員工和退休人員行使股票期權的次數會減少。這在第一季度是非常不尋常的。這是一個零和遊戲。換句話說，如果員工和退休人員早點這樣做，以後要做的事情就更少了。但這將取決於他們和股價表現。而股票回購，我的意思是，你只是根據我們的股價來劃分它。我們每季度提供一次指導，我認為你可以計算一下。它混淆了年平均份額數和我們結束的地方之間的差異，對吧？因此，我們顯然正在減少我們的股票數量。但是，當您查看平均年度時，這正是它所暗示的。這是一年一度的每一天，但趨勢正在下降。我們的回購超過了發行量，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。

That's very clear. And then second question is just thinking about asset sales. I was looking at your guidance, 2023 plans are fairly muted. And I appreciate that you're basically close to 0 debt, so you don't actually need to do anything but in a high commodity price environment, maybe countercyclically, you might want to accelerate something. So is this a function of just the limited cleanup needed in the portfolio or a view on bid-ask spread or anything else? Just to get your view on the asset sale market at the moment.

這很清楚。然後第二個問題只是考慮資產出售。我在看你的指導，2023 年的計劃相當低調。我很欣賞你基本上接近 0 債務，所以你實際上不需要做任何事情，但在高商品價格環境下，也許是反週期的，你可能想要加速一些事情。那麼，這僅僅是投資組合中所需的有限清理的功能，還是對買賣差價或其他任何因素的看法？只是為了了解您目前對資產出售市場的看法。

Yes. So Biraj, we are a little lower than what our typical level of guidance has been, our level of activity. Over the last decade, we've generated about $35 billion in asset sales. So that's, say, [$3.5 million]. There was some portfolio cleanup underway there that was needed to be done, and we get good value as we sold those. You're always looking at your tail. There's always -- when you sell things off, there's a new part of your portfolio and say, okay, this sits at the margin. And so you're always challenging that. If we were to find interested buyers and some of the things that might fit better for others than they do for us, we could transact on that. This is -- the guidance that we've got right now and the things that are underway and in process is what we've put out there, and we'll update you if there's any changes to that.

是的。所以 Biraj，我們的活動水平略低於我們的典型指導水平。在過去十年中，我們的資產銷售收入約為 350 億美元。所以，比如說，[350 萬美元]。那裡正在進行一些需要完成的投資組合清理工作，我們在出售這些產品時獲得了很好的價值。你總是看著你的尾巴。總是 - 當你賣掉東西時，你的投資組合中有一個新的部分，並且說，好吧，這是邊緣。所以你總是在挑戰它。如果我們要找到感興趣的買家和一些可能更適合其他人而不是我們的東西，我們可以就此進行交易。這是——我們現在得到的指導以及正在進行和正在進行的事情是我們在那裡發布的，如果有任何變化，我們會及時通知您。

And to only add, Biraj, we don't do asset sales to raise cash or to manage the balance sheet. We do it based on what Mike just said, high grading of the portfolio where we can get the best returns for capital projects that can compete for capital, some of the impairments that we took in the fourth quarter are a result and outcome of projects that are good projects. They're just not good enough to clear the bar. So it does ebb and flow a little bit as Mike has said, but I just want to be clear, we do it as part of our capital discipline and having -- driving higher returns and lower carbon. It's an outcome of that. It ebbs and flows. It's a little low this year. We set it to go back higher in future years.

並且僅補充一點，Biraj，我們不會出售資產來籌集現金或管理資產負債表。我們是根據邁克剛才所說的，投資組合的高評級，我們可以獲得可以競爭資本的資本項目的最佳回報，我們在第四季度採取的一些減值是項目的結果和結果都是好項目。他們只是不夠好，無法通過標準。所以它確實像邁克所說的那樣起伏不定，但我只想說清楚，我們這樣做是我們資本紀律的一部分，並且有 - 推動更高的回報和更低的碳排放。這是一個結果。它潮起潮落。今年有點低。我們將其設定為在未來幾年回升。

I would like to thank everyone for your time today. We appreciate your interest in Chevron and everyone's participation on today's call. Please stay safe and healthy. Katie, back to you.

我要感謝大家今天的時間。我們感謝您對雪佛龍的關注以及大家對今天電話會議的參與。請保持安全和健康。凱蒂，回到你身邊。

Thank you. This concludes Chevron's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。雪佛龍 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。