雪佛龍 (CVX) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Sarah, and I will be your conference facilitator for today. Welcome to Chevron's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to the General Manager of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Roderick Green. Please go ahead.

早上好。我的名字是莎拉，我將成為您今天的會議主持人。歡迎來到雪佛龍公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，此電話會議正在錄音中。我現在將會議轉交給雪佛龍公司投資者關係總經理羅德里克·格林先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah. Welcome to Chevron's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. I'm Roderick Green, GM of Investor Relations. Our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth; and CFO, Pierre Breber, are on the call with me. We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron's website.

謝謝你，莎拉。歡迎來到雪佛龍公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議和網絡直播。我是投資者關係總經理 Roderick Green。我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Wirth；首席財務官 Pierre Breber 正在與我通話。我們將參考雪佛龍網站上提供的幻燈片和準備好的評論。

Before we begin, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary statement on Slide 2. I will now turn it over to Mike.

在我們開始之前，請注意本演示文稿包含估計、預測和其他前瞻性陳述。請查看幻燈片 2 上的警告聲明。我現在將其交給邁克。

Thank you, Roderick, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We continue to see a challenging and dynamic macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Current events highlight the importance of balancing economic prosperity, energy security and environmental protection. In line with these 3 imperatives, Chevron remains focused on our objective to safely deliver higher returns and lower carbon.

謝謝羅德里克，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們繼續看到充滿挑戰和動態的宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境。時事突出了平衡經濟繁榮、能源安全和環境保護的重要性。根據這 3 條當務之急，雪佛龍仍然專注於我們的目標，即安全地提供更高的回報和更低的碳。

During the third quarter, we continued to make progress by delivering return on capital employed in the mid-20s, returning more than $5 billion to shareholders for the second quarter in a row and investing to grow both our traditional and new energy businesses. Earlier this week, we released our methane report with specific disclosures about our aim to be a leader in methane emissions management. Our goal is simple: keep methane in the pipe. I encourage you to read our report available on chevron.com.

在第三季度，我們繼續取得進展，實現了 20 年代中期使用的資本回報，連續第二季度向股東返還超過 50 億美元，並投資發展我們的傳統和新能源業務。本週早些時候，我們發布了我們的甲烷報告，其中具體披露了我們成為甲烷排放管理領導者的目標。我們的目標很簡單：將甲烷留在管道中。我鼓勵您閱讀我們在 chevron.com 上提供的報告。

Our strategy remains clear and consistent. Our results keep getting better. While future market conditions are uncertain, we're well positioned to deliver value to our shareholders in any environment.

我們的戰略保持清晰和一致。我們的結果越來越好。儘管未來的市場狀況不確定，但我們已做好準備在任何環境下為我們的股東創造價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Pierre.

有了這個，我會把它交給皮埃爾。

Thanks, Mike. Third quarter financial results were strong. Included in the quarter were $177 million of pension settlement costs and positive foreign currency exchange effects of $624 million. The appendix of this presentation contains a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures. We repurchased shares at the high end of our guidance range and ended the quarter with a net debt ratio under 5%.

謝謝，邁克。第三季度財務業績強勁。本季度包括 1.77 億美元的養老金結算成本和 6.24 億美元的正外匯影響。本演示文稿的附錄包含對非公認會計原則措施的核對。我們在指導範圍的高端回購了股票，並在本季度末淨負債率低於 5%。

Cash CapEx was $3 billion, up over 50% from last year. For the sixth consecutive quarter, Chevron's free cash flow exceeded $5 billion. We're on track to beat 2021's free cash flow record. Adjusted third quarter earnings were up more than $5 billion versus last year. Adjusted upstream earnings increased mainly on higher realizations partially offset by inventory timing impacts. In Other, tax benefits are more than offset by higher operating expenses and other costs. Adjusted Downstream earnings increased primarily on higher refining margins and favorable inventory timing impacts. The planned turnaround at our Richmond refinery was a driver of higher OpEx and lower volumes for the period. In Other, lower chemicals earnings were partly offset by higher trading gains.

現金資本支出為 30 億美元，比去年增長 50% 以上。連續第六個季度，雪佛龍的自由現金流超過 50 億美元。我們有望打破 2021 年的自由現金流記錄。與去年相比，調整後的第三季度收益增加了超過 50 億美元。調整後的上游收益增加主要是由於較高的變現部分被庫存時間影響所抵消。在其他方面，稅收優惠被更高的運營費用和其他成本所抵消。調整後的下游收益增加主要是由於較高的煉油利潤率和有利的庫存時機影響。我們里士滿煉油廠的計劃周轉是該期間運營支出增加和產量減少的驅動因素。在其他方面，較低的化學品收益部分被較高的交易收益所抵消。

Compared with last quarter, adjusted earnings were down modestly. Adjusted Upstream earnings increased primarily on higher liftings and tax benefits, partially offset by higher charges for abandonment accruals and exploration leases. Adjusted Downstream earnings decreased primarily on lower refining margins and lower volumes and higher OpEx due to the Richmond planned turnaround. Partially offsetting is a favorable swing in timing effects.

與上一季度相比，調整後的收益小幅下降。調整後的上游收益增加主要是由於更高的起重和稅收優惠，部分被放棄應計費用和勘探租賃費用的增加所抵消。調整後的下游收益下降主要是由於里士滿計劃的周轉導致煉油利潤率下降和產量下降以及運營支出增加。部分抵消是時機效應的有利波動。

Third quarter oil equivalent production was flat compared to a year ago. Growth in the Permian, along with the absence of turnarounds and Hurricane Ida impacts were offset by the expiration of our contracts in Thailand and Indonesia and the sale of our Eagle Ford asset.

第三季度石油當量產量與一年前相比持平。二疊紀的增長，以及沒有轉機和颶風艾達的影響，被我們在泰國和印度尼西亞的合同到期以及出售我們的鷹福特資產所抵消。

Now looking ahead, in the fourth quarter, we expect modest turnaround. After producing a record number of LNG cargoes in third quarter, we expect fewer spot cargoes out of Australia due to maintenance and summer temperatures. In the third quarter, we received a dividend from Angola LNG. In the fourth quarter, we expect dividends from TCO and Angola LNG, and we expect to end 2022 at the top end of our full year guidance for affiliate dividends. As a reminder, Chevron pays a 15% withholding tax on TCO dividends that lowers earnings and cash flow.

現在展望第四季度，我們預計會有適度的轉變。在第三季度生產了創紀錄數量的液化天然氣貨物之後，由於維護和夏季氣溫，我們預計澳大利亞出口的現貨貨物將減少。第三季度，我們收到了安哥拉液化天然氣公司的股息。在第四季度，我們預計 TCO 和安哥拉液化天然氣公司將派發股息，我們預計到 2022 年底將達到我們全年關聯公司股息指引的上限。提醒一下，雪佛龍對 TCO 股息支付 15% 的預扣稅，這會降低收益和現金流。

In the fourth quarter, we will pay over $700 million associated with the early termination of a long-term LNG regas contract at Sabine Pass. This payment was accrued previously through working capital. Also, we expect to buy back shares at the top end of our guidance range.

在第四季度，我們將支付 7 億多美元，與提前終止 Sabine Pass 的長期 LNG 再加氣合同有關。這筆款項以前是通過營運資金累積的。此外，我們預計將在我們指導範圍的高端回購股票。

In closing, the third quarter showed again how Chevron's higher returns, lower carbon objective creates value for all of our stakeholders. Back to you, Roderick.

最後，第三季度再次展示了雪佛龍的高回報、低碳目標如何為我們所有的利益相關者創造價值。回到你身邊，羅德里克。

That concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take your questions. (Operator Instructions) Sarah, please open the lines.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在準備回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）莎拉，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自巴克萊的 Jeanine Wai。

Okay. Perfect. Sorry about that. You think I'd have that right by now. Our first question is on U.S. production growth. So either Mike or Pierre, the Permian was relatively flat quarter-over-quarter, averaged a little under $700,000 a day so far this year. Given industry dynamics and supply chain challenges, can you provide an update on how operations are going? And I guess what we noticed is that with only 1 quarter left in the -- left for the year, it looks like you'll be closer to the lower end of the $700,000 to $750,000 guidance range. And so we're just wondering if that's by design or if there's external factors driving that because we also noticed this morning, one of your integrated peers in the Permian lowered their '22 growth expectations.

好的。完美的。對於那個很抱歉。你認為我現在就可以了。我們的第一個問題是關於美國的產量增長。因此，無論是邁克還是皮埃爾，二疊紀的季度環比都相對持平，今年迄今為止平均每天略低於 700,000 美元。鑑於行業動態和供應鏈挑戰，您能否提供有關運營情況的最新信息？而且我想我們注意到的是，今年只剩下一個季度，看起來你將更接近 700,000 美元至 750,000 美元指導範圍的下限。因此，我們只是想知道這是設計使然，還是有外部因素推動了這一點，因為我們今天早上還注意到，您在二疊紀的一位綜合同行降低了他們 22 年的增長預期。

Yes, Jeanine, my numbers say year-to-date, Permian production, a little over 700,000 barrels a day, up about 15% from first 3 quarters of last year, which was just a touch over 600. So we're seeing good growth. And for the quarter itself, production was up about 10% at 708,000 barrels a day versus 646 in the same quarter last year. I think the thing that some people may miss is during the pandemic, drilled but uncompleted well inventories really grew.

是的，珍妮，我的數據顯示，今年迄今為止，二疊紀的產量略高於 700,000 桶/天，比去年前 3 個季度增長約 15%，僅略高於 600 桶。所以我們看到了不錯的結果生長。就本季度而言，產量增長了約 10%，達到每天 708,000 桶，而去年同期為 646 桶。我認為有些人可能會錯過的事情是在大流行期間，已鑽但未完成的井庫存確實增加了。

And rightfully so, we didn't need to frac wells and bring them online when there was declining demand for the production. So -- and we kept some drilling going. So that inventory grew as we went back to work, the first thing we did was send completion crews out and start to bring the DUCs online. And you saw that through the back half of last year and certainly the first part of this year, which may have misled a little bit in terms of the rate of growth because this was this kind of surge capacity.

理所當然地，當生產需求下降時，我們不需要壓裂井並將它們投入使用。所以 - 我們繼續進行一些鑽探。因此，隨著我們重返工作崗位，庫存增加，我們做的第一件事就是派出完成人員並開始將 DUC 上線。你在去年下半年看到了這一點，當然還有今年上半年，這可能在增長率方面有點誤導，因為這是一種激增的能力。

We're back to Factor VIII drilling now. Our DUC inventory is kind of in line with what our plan would suggest it would be. And so we're seeing production level out at a growth rate that is more the kind of underlying rate that you should see. So we likely will be towards the lower end of the range. We get some nonratable bookings from our non-operated joint ventures. We give you a range because we expect to be in the range, but we don't always hit the high end of the range. So in this case, we'll be towards the lower end. But we're not changing guidance for this year or our forward guidance.

我們現在回到 Factor VIII 鑽井。我們的 DUC 庫存與我們的計劃建議的一致。因此，我們看到生產水平的增長率更像是你應該看到的基本增長率。因此，我們可能會接近該範圍的下限。我們從非經營的合資企業中獲得了一些不可估價的預訂。我們給你一個範圍是因為我們希望在範圍內，但我們並不總是達到範圍的高端。所以在這種情況下，我們將走向低端。但我們不會改變今年的指導或我們的前瞻性指導。

And Jeanine, I'll just add, that low end of the range, it represents 15% year-on-year growth. So that's very strong growth.

我要補充的是珍妮，這個範圍的低端，它代表了 15% 的同比增長。所以這是非常強勁的增長。

Okay. Agreed. Maybe, Pierre, just sticking with you here. In terms of your comments earlier this morning, I think I caught it in an article that '23 CapEx would be at the top end of the $15 million to $17 million medium-term guidance range. There's a lot of moving pieces, and I don't know if you're going to talk about this because you'll have to -- you'll release it in a month or so.

好的。同意。也許，皮埃爾，只是在這里和你在一起。就您今天早上早些時候的評論而言，我想我在一篇文章中提到了 '23 資本支出將處於 1500 萬美元至 1700 萬美元中期指導範圍的頂端。有很多動人的作品，我不知道你是否會談論這個，因為你必須 - 你會在一個月左右發布它。

But the most obvious moving pieces that we see next year are that TCO spend starting to roll off, and some of that will be absorbed by the Permian, which we know is going to garner some more capital next year. So our question is, is capital trending to the higher end of that range? Is that more a reflection of Chevron responding to the macro environment? Or was that always part of the plan? And maybe just some inflation is pushing the capital a little higher?

但我們明年看到的最明顯的變化是 TCO 支出開始下降，其中一些將被二疊紀吸收，我們知道二疊紀將在明年獲得更多資金。所以我們的問題是，資本是否趨向該範圍的高端？這是否更多地反映了雪佛龍對宏觀環境的反應？或者這一直是計劃的一部分？也許只是一些通貨膨脹正在將資本推高一點？

It was always part of the plan for us to increase investment coming out of COVID, as Mike just spoke about. We're in the final stages of approving our business plan and our capital budget. And as you said, we'll announce that in December. You should expect it to be near the top end of the range, again, consistent with what our plans have been. We're going to increase in the Permian and in other locations.

正如邁克剛才所說，增加來自 COVID 的投資一直是我們計劃的一部分。我們正處於批准我們的商業計劃和資本預算的最後階段。正如你所說，我們將在 12 月宣布。您應該期望它再次接近該範圍的高端，這與我們的計劃一致。我們將在二疊紀和其他地方增加。

We do have some cost inflation that is also -- will contribute to that. We'll share all those details when we announce in December. And that's about a 20% increase in next year relative to where we think we'll end up this year. So year-to-date, we're a little bit below our capital budget on an organic basis. And so that will result in about a 20% increase, which is very, again, in line with our guidance and consistent with increasing investment and growing energy supplies.

我們確實有一些成本膨脹，這也 - 將促成這一點。我們將在 12 月宣佈時分享所有這些細節。相對於我們認為今年的最終目標，明年的增長幅度約為 20%。因此，年初至今，我們在有機基礎上略低於我們的資本預算。因此，這將導致大約 20% 的增長，這再次符合我們的指導方針，並與增加投資和不斷增長的能源供應相一致。

And our next question will come from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的尼爾梅塔。

The first question was around Kazakhstan, and Mike, would just love your perspective on how you're viewing the assets out there, both the development of Tengiz? And then as you think through vacating barrels via the CPC pipeline?

第一個問題是關於哈薩克斯坦的，邁克會喜歡你對你如何看待那裡的資產的看法，無論是 Tengiz 的發展嗎？然後你想通過 CPC 管道騰空桶？

Sure. So I'll start with the project. We're on track to complete bulk construction by the end of this year. No change to our cost or schedule guidance, we're 97% complete on construction right now. There's still a lot of work to be done, but the risk and uncertainty are certainly narrowing and the remaining risks tend to be smaller in scale and potential impact.

當然。所以我將從項目開始。我們有望在今年年底前完成批量建設。我們的成本或進度指導沒有改變，我們現在已經完成了 97% 的建設。還有很多工作要做，但風險和不確定性肯定在縮小，剩餘風險的規模和潛在影響往往更小。

So we're moving into commissioning systems testing and start-up activities. We built a new integrated operations control center that I visited, which is fully operational with systems online. Our drilling program is complete. The final metering station is online. So very good progress on the construction side, and we'll continue to update you as we progress toward WPMP, the pressure management startup indicated right now for second half of '23 and then the future growth project in '24.

因此，我們正在進入調試系統測試和啟動活動。我們建立了一個新的綜合運營控制中心，我參觀了該中心，該中心完全可以在線運行。我們的鑽井計劃已經完成。最終計量站上線。建設方面的進展非常好，隨著我們向 WPMP 的進展，我們將繼續向您提供最新信息，壓力管理初創公司現在表示 23 年下半年，然後是 24 年的未來增長項目。

On the CPC and the pipeline, there are no constraints on our ability to move barrels on that line. We've flowed everything out that we've been producing. And you've probably seen the media reports that a couple of the single-point moorings are offline right now for some repairs. So the buoyancy system, those repairs are underway and expected to be completed shortly. So at this point, everything flowing and it looks like we'll continue to do so.

在 CPC 和管道上，我們在這條線上移動桶的能力沒有任何限制。我們已經把我們一直在生產的所有東西都流出了。您可能已經看到媒體報導稱，一些單點繫泊設備目前處於離線狀態，需要進行一些維修。所以浮力系統，這些維修正在進行中，預計很快就會完成。所以在這一點上，一切都在流動，看起來我們會繼續這樣做。

And Mike, you spent many years as a downstreamer as well and have great perspective on the global refining system. I don't think I ever thought that the cracks would be up here. So just love your perspective of where we are in terms of the refining market, how do we work our way through the bottlenecks that seem to be existing in the system and what that means for your Downstream business?

邁克，你也作為下游企業工作了很多年，對全球煉油系統有很好的看法。我想我從沒想過這裡會出現裂縫。因此，請喜歡您對我們在煉油市場方面所處位置的看法，我們如何克服系統中似乎存在的瓶頸以及這對您的下游業務意味著什麼？

Sure. It's been an interesting couple of years in the refining sector, Neil. With COVID, we actually saw through that period of time, some refineries shut down around the world that maybe at a rate greater than we would have expected before as the economics really collapsed, as demand collapsed. There were -- been some refineries in the U.S. that have been taken offline after storm damage or operating incidents that are not coming back.

當然。尼爾，在煉油行業度過了有趣的幾年。在 COVID 的影響下，我們實際上看到了這段時間，世界各地的一些煉油廠關閉的速度可能比我們之前預期的要快，因為經濟真的崩潰了，需求崩潰了。美國有一些煉油廠在風暴破壞或運營事故後停產，但沒有恢復。

We see others being converted to renewable diesel. And so you had a constraint or a reduction in refining capacity that occurred over the last couple of years in a way we really haven't seen previously. And the other thing that happened is some of the new builds that are in various stages of development, primarily in the Middle East or Asia, slowed down during COVID. And a lot of the industry slowed activity until we had a better view on how we were going to come through that period of time.

我們看到其他人正在轉換為可再生柴油。因此，您在過去幾年中以我們以前從未見過的方式出現了煉油能力的限製或減少。發生的另一件事是一些處於不同發展階段的新建築，主要是在中東或亞洲，在 COVID 期間放慢了速度。在我們更好地了解我們將如何度過這段時間之前，許多行業都放慢了活動。

I think those will come back into developments and eventually online which will ease some of these global constraints. But the system is tight right now. And what you see is when you have some maintenance that runs along, some unplanned events, as we've seen on the West Coast, or when you see things like the strike that we've seen in France here recently, markets tighten up really quickly. And that sends a price signal to try to bring supplies in from further away.

我認為這些將重新發展並最終上線，這將緩解其中的一些全球限制。但是現在系統很緊。你看到的是，當你進行一些維護，一些計劃外的事件，就像我們在西海岸看到的那樣，或者當你看到我們最近在法國看到的罷工時，市場真的收緊了迅速地。這發出了一個價格信號，試圖從更遠的地方引進供應。

And so the entire refining complex right now is a little more tightly balanced than it historically has been. And I think in the short term, if you want to call that the next year, plus or minus, probably stays that way, maybe a little bit longer to some degree. And then I think as you see some of this new capacity come online, we get back into a situation where it's not quite as finely balanced as it is today. But to no doubt, we're in a market that we really haven't seen probably in my career in terms of the overall tightness on supply and demand.

因此，現在整個煉油廠的平衡比歷史上更加緊密。而且我認為在短期內，如果你想在明年這樣稱呼它，無論正負，可能會保持這種狀態，在某種程度上可能會更長一點。然後我認為，當您看到其中一些新容量上線時，我們又回到了一種情況，即它不像今天那樣平衡。但毫無疑問，就供需的整體緊張而言，我們所處的市場可能在我的職業生涯中可能從未見過。

And our next question will come from John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 John Royall。

Just thinking about your buyback range, $5 billion to $15 billion. 3Q is a strong quarter from a fundamental perspective, but maybe feels more repeatable to me than as an upside case than 2Q did. In 3Q, you still generated free cash flow well in excess of both your dividend and the buyback at the top end of the range. So my question is do you think you could go further than the $15 billion at the top end, given you still have a good amount of deleveraging happening at this point in the cycle, it doesn't seem quite as extraordinary as 2Q did.

想想你的回購範圍，50 億到 150 億美元。從基本面的角度來看，第三季度是一個強勁的季度，但對我來說，可能比第二季度的上行情況更具可重複性。在第三季度，你仍然產生了遠遠超過你的股息和回購範圍上限的自由現金流。所以我的問題是，你認為你是否可以超過 150 億美元的上限，因為在這個週期的這一點上你仍然有大量的去槓桿化，這似乎不像第二季度那麼特別。

Yes. John, we've actually increased our rate of buybacks 3 times this year. We announced the first one at the end of last year. So we've steadily moved the range up and the rate of repurchases up. And so we're at an all-time high in terms of the rate of share repurchases. And you're right. We've got strong cash flow right now, which allows us to support all of our financial priorities and maintain the strong balance sheet.

是的。約翰，我們今年實際上將回購率提高了 3 倍。我們在去年年底宣布了第一個。因此，我們穩步提高了範圍和回購率。因此，就股票回購率而言，我們處於歷史最高水平。你是對的。我們現在擁有強大的現金流，這使我們能夠支持我們所有的財務優先事項並保持強勁的資產負債表。

I think the thing that I just would reemphasize is we want to maintain the buyback program throughout the cycle. And we're not procyclical. We're not countercyclical. We want to operate across the cycle so that our shareholders see consistency out of us and know that they can count on that. And so we're positioned in a way where we're confident we can maintain that. And we regularly reassess it as our view on our business and commodity markets continues to evolve. And so we'll continue to do that and apprise you of anything further. Pierre, do you want to add anything to that?

我想我要再次強調的是，我們希望在整個週期內維持回購計劃。而且我們不是順週期性的。我們不是逆週期的。我們希望在整個週期內運作，以便我們的股東看到我們的一致性，並知道他們可以依靠這一點。因此，我們的定位是我們有信心可以保持這一點。隨著我們對業務和商品市場的看法不斷發展，我們會定期對其進行重新評估。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，並進一步通知您。皮埃爾，你想補充什麼嗎？

I'll just point out that we increased our dividend 6% earlier this year. We've been growing our dividend at a compounded annual growth rate of 6% for 15 years. And that is our first financial priority. So there's a lot of tension on the buyback, but it's clearly our fourth priority after sustaining and growing the dividend, investing to grow both traditional and new energy businesses, maintaining a strong balance sheet. And as Mike said, we intend to do it across the cycle for multiple years.

我只想指出，我們今年早些時候將股息提高了 6%。 15 年來，我們一直以 6% 的複合年增長率增長股息。這是我們的首要財務優先事項。因此，回購的壓力很大，但這顯然是我們在維持和增加股息、投資以發展傳統和新能源業務、保持強勁的資產負債表之後的第四個優先事項。正如邁克所說，我們打算在整個週期內進行多年。

Great. And then just looking at your bridge for international upstream, and I think Pierre may have mentioned in his remarks as well. You have this tailwind about $300 million from tax. Is that an impact from country mix? Or are there other moving pieces we should think about there? And should we think about this as sustainable?

偉大的。然後看看你的國際上游橋，我認為皮埃爾可能在他的講話中也提到過。你從稅收中獲得了大約 3 億美元的順風。這是國家組合的影響嗎？還是我們應該在那裡考慮其他動人的部分？我們應該認為這是可持續的嗎？

In terms of international upstream, the benefit in the third quarter was primarily around a record LNG cargoes out of Australia, primarily Gorgon and Wheatstone are very happy to see that. It was a time when the world needed the energy. And again, a lot of that is under long-term contracts, but that included cargoes in the spot market, which we know we're at high prices.

就國際上游而言，第三季度的收益主要圍繞著創紀錄的來自澳大利亞的液化天然氣貨物，主要是 Gorgon 和 Wheatstone 很高興看到這一點。那是一個世界需要能源的時代。再說一次，其中很多都是長期合同，但其中包括現貨市場的貨物，我們知道我們的價格很高。

So we signaled that we expect of fewer LNG cargoes in the fourth quarter because during the summer temperatures in the southern hemisphere is just how -- you just produce less. And then we do have a pit stop that is planned for 1 of our facilities. In terms of tax items, those are items that can be onetime in nature. And so I would not look for those to be necessarily repeating.

因此，我們發出信號，我們預計第四季度的液化天然氣貨物將減少，因為在南半球的夏季溫度就是這樣 - 你只是生產更少。然後我們確實為我們的其中一個設施計劃了一個進站。就稅收項目而言，這些項目本質上可以是一次性的。因此，我不會尋找那些必然重複的內容。

Our next question will come from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Roger Read。

Maybe just to ask a question that kind of ties a little bit into the question on the Permian. Maybe as you said, lower end in the non-op portion and the CapEx discussion. But just a broad question on inflation and not just inflation in the price sense, but some of the productivity challenges that come when you start getting busier. I mean you've got as good a global footprint as anybody. I'm just curious how you'd characterize that as you look across? And is there -- is it becoming more challenging to mitigate some of those issues?

也許只是為了問一個與二疊紀問題有點聯繫的問題。也許正如您所說，非運營部分和資本支出討論的低端。但這只是一個關於通貨膨脹的廣泛問題，而不僅僅是價格意義上的通貨膨脹，還有當你開始變得更忙時會出現的一些生產力挑戰。我的意思是你的全球足跡和任何人一樣好。我只是好奇，當你看過去時，你會如何描述它？是否存在——緩解其中一些問題是否變得更具挑戰性？

Yes. Roger, the -- I'd like to tell people we plan our work and work our plan. And so we've indicated for -- frankly, if you go back to pre COVID, our trajectory is that we pretty much have stayed right on even with the interruption of COVID. And so in terms of contracting for rigs, completion crews, pipe, sand, you name it, we tend to have a longer-term visibility into that. We commit to our service providers earlier, and that can result in both quality and availability of people, equipment, et cetera.

是的。羅傑，我想告訴人們我們計劃我們的工作並按照我們的計劃工作。因此，我們已經指出——坦率地說，如果你回到 COVID 之前，我們的軌跡是，即使 COVID 中斷，我們也幾乎保持不變。因此，就鑽井平台、完井人員、管道、沙子的承包而言，我們傾向於對此有更長期的了解。我們更早地向我們的服務提供商承諾，這可以提高人員、設備等的質量和可用性。

So we don't see any meaningful constraints on our ability to execute our program. Certainly, we are seeing some cost inflation. And the Permian is probably the strongest that we see around the world, kind of into the low double digits year-on-year. In other parts of our portfolio, the cost pressures are probably a little bit less and the constraints aren't quite as pressing.

所以我們看不到任何有意義的限制我們執行程序的能力。當然，我們看到了一些成本膨脹。二疊紀可能是我們在世界各地看到的最強的，同比下降到兩位數。在我們投資組合的其他部分，成本壓力可能會小一些，而且限制也沒有那麼緊迫。

So I think you'll see a little bit of that in our capital guidance as it comes out as we wrap up our planning and we look to next year. And I do think that it is probably a very real, I don't want to call it a governor, but a constraint on industry, the pace of industry activity and ramp up as we get into the next year. You'll hear other people talking about it from their point of view, and I'll let them comment, but yes, it's very real.

所以我認為你會在我們的資本指導中看到一點，因為它會在我們結束我們的計劃並且我們期待明年時出現。而且我確實認為這可能是一個非常真實的，我不想稱它為州長，而是對行業、行業活動的步伐的限制，並隨著我們進入明年而加速。你會聽到其他人從他們的角度談論它，我會讓他們發表評論，但是是的，這是非常真實的。

And we've seen this movie before. In the Permian, we've seen it up in the oil sands a decade earlier. And in a cyclical business, this is a part of it.

我們以前看過這部電影。在二疊紀，我們已經在十年前的油砂中看到了它。在周期性業務中，這是其中的一部分。

Yes, for sure. Follow-up question. Renewable natural gas RNG, we saw big acquisition announced here a few weeks ago on that front. You've been one of the leaders. And I was just curious, as you look at what's been going on in terms of some of the legislation that's come out federally as well as just the extent of the impact of the LCFS in California. Any updates we should think about in the RNG business. One of the things mentioned in that acquisition was the position that company already had in terms of -- I guess you'd call it leaseholds, right, on landfills and stuff and just characterize kind of where you are relative to where you want to be and to where maybe this competitor is setting up.

是肯定的。後續問題。可再生天然氣 RNG，我們看到幾週前在這方面宣布了重大收購。你一直是領導者之一。我只是好奇，當你看看聯邦出台的一些立法以及加州 LCFS 的影響程度時正在發生的事情。我們應該在 RNG 業務中考慮的任何更新。在那次收購中提到的一件事是公司已經擁有的地位——我想你會稱之為租賃權，對，在垃圾填埋場和其他東西上，只是描述你相對於你想去的地方的位置以及這個競爭對手可能正在設立的地方。

Sure. We feel very good about where we are. We're a leader in RNG, leveraging strengths across the entire value chain, from feedstock to customer. We've been a partner of choice for a lot of the dairy farmers. We've got a strong brand to pull through. We've got a really strong market position in California where the LCFS provides the strongest incentives for this. So we like the position that we've built up. We've got 75 CNG sites online are in progress right now through the retail side.

當然。我們對自己所處的位置感覺非常好。我們是 RNG 的領導者，利用從原料到客戶的整個價值鏈的優勢。我們一直是許多奶農的首選合作夥伴。我們有一個強大的品牌來度過難關。我們在加州擁有非常強大的市場地位，LCFS 對此提供了最強大的激勵措施。所以我們喜歡我們建立的位置。我們有 75 個在線 CNG 站點正在通過零售方面進行。

So our efforts, we were an early mover and we've preferentially focused on dairy as opposed to landfill gas. So there certainly are others that are active in this area. I don't want to comment on how somebody else looks at things. I would just say, our business is up and running, and we're supplying customers today, not kind of planning out into the future and kind of banking on that. I mean we intend to grow it further, but it's a real business for us today and it's performing well.

所以我們的努力，我們是先行者，我們優先關注乳製品而不是垃圾填埋氣。所以肯定還有其他人在這個領域很活躍。我不想評論別人如何看待事物。我只想說，我們的業務已經啟動並正在運行，我們今天正在為客戶提供服務，而不是計劃未來並以此為基礎。我的意思是我們打算進一步發展它，但它今天對我們來說是一項真正的業務，並且表現良好。

Our next question will come from Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的德文麥克德莫特。

So I wanted to stick with New Energies first. And a few weeks ago, there was an announcement that you joined a consortium to look at a hydrogen and ammonia project in the Gulf Coast. So I was wondering if you could talk in a little bit more detail around that. And then more broadly, with the Inflation Reduction Act passage, how you're thinking about the opportunity set in your New Energies platform over the next few years?

所以我想先堅持使用新能源。幾週前，有消息稱你加入了一個財團，研究墨西哥灣沿岸的氫和氨項目。所以我想知道你是否可以更詳細地談談這個問題。然後更廣泛地說，隨著通貨膨脹減少法案的通過，您如何看待未來幾年在您的新能源平台中設置的機會？

Sure. So we're excited about the announcements to work with a number of really good partners to try to develop hydrogen opportunities there on the Gulf Coast. One of the things I think you're going to see in these New Energies businesses as they evolve is we're going to have to build entire new value chains. And that means we're going to partner with different people who have expertise in different parts of these value chains and can bring technology, can bring customers, can bring experience to a venture that no one company necessarily would have all of that, but collectively, we can work with people that can build these new value chains.

當然。因此，我們很高興宣布與許多非常好的合作夥伴合作，嘗試在墨西哥灣沿岸開發氫氣機會。隨著新能源業務的發展，我認為您將在這些業務中看到的一件事是，我們將不得不建立全新的價值鏈。這意味著我們將與不同的人合作，這些人在這些價值鏈的不同部分擁有專業知識，可以帶來技術，可以帶來客戶，可以為一家企業帶來經驗，沒有一家公司一定會擁有所有這些，但集體，我們可以與能夠建立這些新價值鏈的人合作。

And so it's early days on many of these things, we're studying all the different opportunities in terms of blue hydrogen, green hydrogen, there's a lot of different colors that are possible as you get down into the details of it. And it will require significant investments. So I don't want to get ahead of ourselves here. This is to really develop well-informed perspectives on the investment opportunities, the business models and ultimately, how we would build the business up there.

所以現在很多這些東西還處於早期階段，我們正在研究藍氫、綠氫方面的所有不同機會，當你深入了解它的細節時，有很多不同的顏色可能。這將需要大量投資。所以我不想在這裡超越自己。這是為了真正就投資機會、商業模式以及最終我們將如何在此建立業務建立明智的觀點。

But it's exciting. They're high-quality partners that we are working with. And I think you'll see more of these efforts announced here. We've got a lot of it that we're working on around the world, not just here in the U.S.

但這很令人興奮。他們是我們正在合作的優質合作夥伴。我想你會在這裡看到更多這樣的努力。我們在世界各地都有很多工作要做，而不僅僅是在美國。

Great. Look forward to seeing the additional details there over time. My second question is actually on M&A and just consolidation. And if you think back over the last few years, you've had a great track record, the Noble deal in 2020 REGI more recently. Wonder if you could talk a little bit more about how you're viewing the landscape for further acquisitions, upstream, downstream and even New Energies going forward.

偉大的。期待隨著時間的推移在那裡看到更多細節。我的第二個問題實際上是關於併購和整合。如果你回想過去幾年，你的業績記錄很好，最近在 2020 年 REGI 的 Noble 交易。想知道您是否可以多談談您如何看待進一步收購、上游、下游甚至新能源的前景。

Sure, Devin. So we're always looking. We've got an evergreen process where we scan all the different sectors that are of interest to us. And so we watch companies, we watch sectors, we watch opportunities. Although we've had a pretty high bar, which is why we've only done a few deals. And as you say, we feel like the deals we've done are likely to turn out well.

當然，德文。所以我們一直在尋找。我們有一個常青的過程，我們掃描我們感興趣的所有不同部門。所以我們關注公司，關注行業，關注機會。雖然我們的門檻很高，但這就是為什麼我們只做了幾筆交易。正如你所說，我們覺得我們所做的交易很可能會取得好成績。

We've got a strong portfolio. We've got a really strong base case. And so we don't need to do a deal unless it really improves on what we expect to deliver otherwise. So I would just say we're going to continue to be very disciplined. We don't have an open checkbook even when times are good like this, especially when times are good like this. We walked away from a deal a few years ago rather than chase value out of it.

我們擁有強大的投資組合。我們有一個非常強大的基本案例。所以我們不需要做交易，除非它真的改善了我們期望交付的東西。所以我只想說我們將繼續非常自律。即使在這樣好的時候，我們也沒有打開的支票簿，尤其是在這樣好的時候。幾年前，我們放棄了一筆交易，而不是從中追逐價值。

We've sold assets out of our portfolio at well times. And as you say, the last couple of deals were done at a pretty good time. So over time, I think in the oil and gas business, there's likely to be some more consolidation. You need fewer and stronger companies that normally happens at the bottom of the cycle rather than at the top of the cycle. In New Energies, there's a lot of activity, to Devin's question, and I think there's a very active market out there where you could see some things come together because nobody has all the pieces.

我們在好時機出售了我們投資組合中的資產。正如你所說，最後幾筆交易是在相當好的時候完成的。所以隨著時間的推移，我認為在石油和天然氣業務中，可能會有更多的整合。你需要更少和更強大的公司，這些公司通常發生在周期的底部而不是周期的頂部。在新能源中，有很多活動，德文的問題，我認為那裡有一個非常活躍的市場，你可以看到一些東西融合在一起，因為沒有人擁有所有的部分。

And I think as you look at building these businesses, we're going to find combinations probably are necessary to actually begin to put those pieces together. But we're going to be disciplined as we have been all along. And if we do anything, we'll come out to explain to you how it's going to create value for shareholders.

而且我認為，當您著眼於建立這些業務時，我們會發現組合可能是實際開始將這些部分組合在一起所必需的。但我們會像我們一直以來一樣受到紀律處分。如果我們做任何事情，我們會出來向您解釋它將如何為股東創造價值。

Our next question will come from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Mike or Pierre, maybe I've got one for each of you guys, and I'll go to Pierre first. So Pierre, I think you've been -- both of you guys have been very clear about managing the buyback through the cycle. And I think we all probably agree that your breakeven is not one of the best in the industry. But you still end up building a ton of cash and your share price is at, I guess, pretty close to an all-time high.

邁克或皮埃爾，也許我為你們每個人準備了一份，我先去找皮埃爾。所以皮埃爾，我認為你一直 - 你們兩個都非常清楚如何管理整個週期的回購。而且我認為我們可能都同意您的盈虧平衡點不是業內最好的之一。但你最終還是會積累大量現金，而且我猜你的股價非常接近歷史最高點。

So I'm just curious, the last thing you had this situation, you had multiple parallel projects going on to manage almost close to a net debt 0 balance sheet. What's to prevent you from building cash on the balance sheet and being opportunistic, whether it be through M&A or whether it be a cyclical opportunity to buy back your shares at a low level? I'm just curious how you think about that.

所以我只是好奇，您遇到這種情況的最後一件事是，您有多個並行項目正在進行管理，幾乎接近淨債務為 0 的資產負債表。是什麼阻止您在資產負債表上積累現金並投機取巧，無論是通過併購還是以低水平回購股票的周期性機會？我只是好奇你是怎麼想的。

We've had a philosophy that goes back a long time and a track record. Again, I think that speaks for itself, 35 years of dividend increases, again, compounding at 6% for the last 15 years. Our investments in our traditional new energy growing both our guidance on upstream production growth is 3% compounded. We're now the second largest biorenewable diesel producer in the country with our REGI acquisition.

我們有一種可以追溯到很長時間的哲學和良好的記錄。再一次，我認為這不言自明，35 年的股息增長，再一次，在過去 15 年的複合增長率為 6%。我們對傳統新能源增長的投資我們對上游產量增長的指導是 3% 的複合。通過收購 REGI，我們現在是該國第二大生物可再生柴油生產商。

And when we generate cash in excess of that, it first goes to the balance sheet. So we've been very clear that our stated net debt ratio is between 20% to 25%. That's still a very strong balance sheet. If you recall, as we entered COVID, we were the only company that showed a stress test at $30 Brent and our net debt ratio was going to go into the low 30s if in fact, we would have had 2 years at 30. But that would have been where many of our peers started into COVID. So we've always maintained a strong balance sheet, and we think that's appropriate over the cycle to be in that range.

當我們產生的現金超過這個數額時，它首先會進入資產負債表。因此，我們非常清楚，我們規定的淨債務比率在 20% 到 25% 之間。這仍然是一個非常強大的資產負債表。如果您還記得，當我們進入 COVID 時，我們是唯一一家在布倫特原油 30 美元處進行壓力測試的公司，如果事實上，我們在 30 歲時會有 2 年的時間，我們的淨債務比率將進入 30 年代的低點。但那將是我們許多同行開始接觸 COVID 的地方。因此，我們一直保持強勁的資產負債表，我們認為在整個週期內處於該範圍內是合適的。

But we're well below that. Our net debt is under 5%. So that's just a function of cash coming in and our just commitment to not be procyclical, we could have a larger buyback program today. Absolutely, if we wanted to just peg our net debt ratio at a higher level. But I think our shareholders would appropriately question that strategy as not being across the cycle.

但我們遠低於此。我們的淨債務低於 5%。所以這只是現金流入的一個功能，以及我們不順週期性的承諾，我們今天可以有一個更大的回購計劃。當然，如果我們只想將我們的淨債務比率固定在更高的水平。但我認為我們的股東會適當地質疑該策略是否跨越週期。

So we're setting the buyback at a level that allows us to maintain it across the cycle when prices do correct. We'll continue to buy back shares near the top end of the range that we've been talking about. In terms of acting countercyclically, in terms of M&A or any kind of major capital project, we have the capacity to do that at all kinds of balance sheets.

因此，我們將回購設置在一個水平，使我們能夠在價格正確時在整個週期內維持它。我們將繼續回購我們一直在談論的區間上限附近的股票。在逆週期行動方面，在併購或任何類型的重大資本項目方面，我們有能力在各種資產負債表上做到這一點。

We've shown that on M&A, we use equity because we think it makes a lot of sense. There's oil price risk in any kind of transaction so we don't need to do it all with cash. It will come with debt very likely. So we want to have some capacity but using equity in oil deals makes a lot of sense. And again, we have a great portfolio of projects, but we've shown a 10-year profile in addition to our 5-year guidance where the growth continues. We have a lot of great projects to choose from.

我們已經證明，在併購中，我們使用股權，因為我們認為這很有意義。任何類型的交易都存在油價風險，所以我們不需要全部用現金來做。它很可能會伴隨債務而來。所以我們希望有一些能力，但在石油交易中使用股權很有意義。再說一次，我們有一個很棒的項目組合，但除了我們的 5 年指導之外，我們還展示了一個 10 年的概況，並且繼續增長。我們有很多很棒的項目可供選擇。

The goal here is to sustain and grow the enterprise with the lowest capital possible. We're more capital and cost efficient than we've ever been. We've talked about that. And we're not really paid for growth by the market. So we're growing at very appropriate rates, strong rates for the next 5 years. And again, we've shown beyond that, but we certainly have the balance sheet and the capability to do more if we think, again, as Mike said, it's in the interest of our shareholders.

這裡的目標是以盡可能低的資本維持和發展企業。我們比以往任何時候都更具資本和成本效益。我們已經談過了。而且我們並沒有真正為市場的增長買單。因此，我們正以非常合適的速度增長，未來 5 年的增長速度非常強勁。再一次，我們已經證明了這一點，但如果我們再次認為，正如邁克所說，這符合我們股東的利益，我們當然有資產負債表和做更多事情的能力。

Mike, I hate to put you in the spot, but you have the privilege or the challenge, I guess, of meeting with administration recently. I asked this question to your larger peer earlier today. And I'm just curious if you would care to share your thoughts on some of the potential legislative risks that might face the industry. And I guess, at a big picture level, I'm curious whether if you feel that the kind of ESG pendulum from an investor standpoint is beginning to swing back in your favor? Just that any thoughts you may care to share on that.

邁克，我不想讓你陷入困境，但我猜你有幸或面臨挑戰，最近與政府會面。我今天早些時候向你更大的同行提出了這個問題。我只是好奇您是否願意分享您對該行業可能面臨的一些潛在立法風險的看法。而且我想，從大局來看，我很好奇你是否覺得從投資者的角度來看，那種 ESG 鐘擺開始對你有利？只是你可能願意分享的任何想法。

Sure, Doug. So look, when we meet with policymakers, including those in the administration, what I talk about is the importance in energy of balancing economic prosperity, energy security and environmental protection. And all 3 of those things matter. Economic prosperity is affordable energy underpins the ability of the economics or economies to thrive.

當然，道格。所以看，當我們與包括政府官員在內的政策制定者會面時，我談論的是能源在平衡經濟繁榮、能源安全和環境保護方面的重要性。所有這三件事都很重要。經濟繁榮是負擔得起的能源，是經濟或經濟繁榮能力的基礎。

Reliable energy is tied to national security, and we're seeing that play out in different parts of the world today. And then, of course, there are the concerns about the environmental impacts of energy production and energy use, and we have to take those very seriously as well. And so my message to the policymakers is to be sure that we consider the appropriate balance of all 3 of those in policy because if you over-index on just one, you can create unintended consequences and vulnerabilities that may not manifest themselves for a little while, but they're there.

可靠的能源與國家安全息息相關，我們看到當今世界不同地區都在發揮作用。當然，還有對能源生產和能源使用對環境影響的擔憂，我們也必須非常認真地對待這些問題。因此，我要向政策制定者傳達的信息是，確保我們考慮政策中所有 3 個因素的適當平衡，因為如果您僅對其中一個因素進行過度索引，您可能會產生意想不到的後果和漏洞，這些後果和漏洞可能暫時不會顯現出來，但他們在那裡。

And eventually, they do materialize. And so I'm a believer that we share a lot of common ground with governments around the world as we talk about these issues. We share common ground with our investors who are concerned about these things as well. And so look, we've been doing ESG for a long time. I keep a book on my desk called the Standard Oil Spirit that was written in 1923. And it talks about our commitment to people, it talks about our commitment to protecting the environment. And this has been in the ethos of the company forever, and it's evolved as society has evolved. And so we're committed to being a responsible company and being a part of the solution here in the U.S. and around the world.

最終，它們確實實現了。所以我相信，當我們談論這些問題時，我們與世界各地的政府有很多共同點。我們與同樣關注這些事情的投資者有共同點。所以看，我們已經做 ESG 很長時間了。我的辦公桌上放著一本寫於 1923 年的《標準油精》。它談到了我們對人類的承諾，談到了我們對保護環境的承諾。這一直是公司的精神，它隨著社會的發展而發展。因此，我們致力於成為一家負責任的公司，並成為美國和世界各地解決方案的一部分。

Our next question will come from Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Ryan Todd 和 Piper Sandler。

Maybe one follow-up question on biofuels, on the liquid side of the biofuels market. Could you maybe provide an update how you're seeing the liquid biofuels market maybe relative to your expectations, particularly with a little time with the REG acquisition under your belt? You're expanding pretreatment in Germany, Europe pitching things towards sustainable aviation fuel.

也許是關於生物燃料的一個後續問題，在生物燃料市場的流動性方面。您能否提供一個更新，您如何看待液體生物燃料市場可能與您的預期相關，特別是在您收購 REG 的時間不多的情況下？您正在德國和歐洲擴大預處理，向可持續航空燃料推銷東西。

So how is the market playing out relative to your expectations? How do you see the past issue playing out between U.S. and Europe? And then maybe any update on the progress of the Geismar renewable diesel facility that you acquired from REG?

那麼相對於您的預期，市場表現如何？您如何看待美國和歐洲之間過去的問題？然後，您從 REG 獲得的 Geismar 可再生柴油設施的進展可能有任何更新？

Sure. So I'll start with the REG acquisition. The assets are good, the people are little better. Any surprises so far have been to the upside. We've already identified quick wins, commercial opportunities. We've lowered insurance and financing costs. Integration efforts are all on track and delivering on our expectations. We're seeing placement of biodiesel in the Chevron's West Coast refining or in the marketing network, and that continues to ramp up.

當然。所以我將從 REG 收購開始。資產不錯，人也好。到目前為止，任何意外都是有利的。我們已經確定了速贏和商業機會。我們降低了保險和融資成本。整合工作都在按計劃進行，並達到了我們的預期。我們看到生物柴油在雪佛龍的西海岸煉油廠或營銷網絡中的位置，而且這種情況還在繼續增加。

We're optimizing freight and feedstocks across the system. So all of that builds on the strength that both companies had in the renewable fuels value chain. And we just see it as really a nice combination here. The Geismar expansion is underway, and we're halfway already to our renewable fuels target as that's completed. We indicated we're going to grow to 100,000 barrels a day. We're well on our way to do that.

我們正在優化整個系統的貨運和原料。因此，所有這一切都建立在兩家公司在可再生燃料價值鏈中的實力之上。我們只是把它看作是一個很好的組合。 Geismar 擴建工程正在進行中，我們的可再生燃料目標已經完成一半。我們表示我們將增長到每天 100,000 桶。我們正在努力做到這一點。

And of course, we're investing in other relationships. We've got a joint venture with Bunge, where we're now participating in the soybean crush spread and bringing feedstocks into the system. We're working on converting hydro processing capacity at some of our refineries to be able to run bio feedstocks. So this is a part of our business that will grow the economics on it, like anything in the downstream or a function of feedstock costs, supply demand in markets.

當然，我們正在投資於其他關係。我們與邦吉成立了一家合資企業，我們現在正在參與大豆壓榨推廣並將原料引入系統。我們正在努力轉換我們一些煉油廠的加氫處理能力，以便能夠運行生物原料。因此，這是我們業務的一部分，它將增加經濟性，就像下游的任何事物或原料成本的函數，市場的供應需求一樣。

But they've been good so far, and we expect across the cycle and out into time that they're going to continue to be an important part of our portfolio. We are seeing more people go into renewable diesel. It's a market that, like any other commodity market at times may get long and margins may reflect that. But we're familiar with those dynamics from our traditional business.

但到目前為止，它們一直很好，我們預計在整個週期內，它們將繼續成為我們投資組合的重要組成部分。我們看到越來越多的人開始使用可再生柴油。這是一個市場，就像任何其他商品市場一樣，有時可能會做多，而利潤率可能會反映這一點。但我們熟悉傳統業務中的這些動態。

Thanks, Mike. Maybe one more. Just maybe a little speculative, but any thoughts on what you think the impact of a Russian product import ban to Europe on how that could play out in terms of product flows? Are those barrels likely to find a home in Latin America or Africa? Or do you think that we may actually see a decent amount of that Russian product disappear from the market?

謝謝，邁克。也許還有一個。只是可能有點投機，但您認為俄羅斯產品進口禁令對歐洲的影響會如何影響產品流動？這些桶有可能在拉丁美洲或非洲找到家嗎？還是您認為我們實際上可能會看到相當數量的俄羅斯產品從市場上消失？

Yes. Any of these export bans have to be looked at within the context of the broader market. And as you say, just as we've seen on crude, where the U.S. has managed the import of Russian crude Europe hasn't yet that's coming. And -- but it's a global market. And you've got other buyers that need -- they need the products and they're not participating in the sanctions necessarily.

是的。這些出口禁令中的任何一個都必須在更廣泛的市場背景下進行研究。正如你所說，正如我們在原油中看到的那樣，美國已經管理了俄羅斯原油的進口，歐洲還沒有到來。而且——但這是一個全球市場。你還有其他需要的買家——他們需要產品，但他們不一定參與製裁。

And so going to the earlier question from Neil about the products side of the business, markets are tight right now. Diesel, in particular, as we've seen here recently and likely to stay that way through the winter, I think. Further, we get into the first quarter when the products ban comes into effect in Europe. And I think that's going to be set against a backdrop of pretty tight product markets, and you are going to find countries around the world need that fuel.

因此，對於尼爾之前關於業務產品方面的問題，現在市場很緊張。尤其是柴油，正如我們最近在這裡看到的那樣，我認為它很可能會在整個冬天保持這種狀態。此外，當產品禁令在歐洲生效時，我們進入第一季度。我認為這將是在產品市場相當緊張的背景下進行的，你會發現世界各地的國家都需要這種燃料。

And you get into logistics then, you've got longer shipping legs, which do you have enough ships to move it and how do you -- how does the system reoptimize? It's a less efficient optimization for sure than moving it to the natural closer markets. But I do think that you'll see those products continue to flow although just go to more distant markets with increased costs and logistics and continue to keep some of this pressure on the overall balances out there.

然後你進入物流，你有更長的運輸腿，你有足夠的船來移動它，你如何 - 系統如何重新優化？與將其轉移到自然更近的市場相比，這肯定是一種效率較低的優化。但我確實認為你會看到這些產品繼續流動，儘管只是進入更遠的市場，增加了成本和物流，並繼續對整體平衡施加一些壓力。

Our next question will come from Lucas Herrmann with Exane.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Lucas Herrmann 和 Exane。

Two, if I might. The first for you, Pierre. Just remind me, in terms of the associate contribution towards the top end of the range, I think the indication was $3 billion at the top end of the range, but perhaps you could give us an indication of the level of dividend that's been paid out to associate to date. And I guess I'm a little surprised that in the current environment, one might expect that the associate dividend would be beyond the $3 billion? And then, Mike, just if you could just give us a whirlwind tour or it's not whirlwind, but just talk around the Gulf the developments that are taking place there within your own portfolio and how those are proceeding and your current thoughts on timing. That'd be great.

二，如果可以的話。第一個給你的，皮埃爾。請提醒我，就該範圍上限的聯營公司貢獻而言，我認為該範圍的上限為 30 億美元，但也許您可以告訴我們已支付的股息水平關聯到日期。而且我想我有點驚訝，在當前環境下，人們可能會預期聯營股息將超過 30 億美元？然後，邁克，如果你可以給我們一個旋風之旅，或者它不是旋風，但只是在海灣地區談論你自己的投資組合中正在發生的事態發展，以及這些進展如何以及你目前對時間的想法。那簡直太好了。

Okay. I'll let Pierre start, and then when I come back, I'll just ask you to clarify, Gulf of Mexico or...

好的。我會讓皮埃爾開始，然後當我回來的時候，我會要求你澄清一下，墨西哥灣或......

Sorry, Gulf of Mexico. Yes, no, Gulf of Mexico.

對不起，墨西哥灣。是的，不，墨西哥灣。

Okay. Very good.

好的。很好。

You're welcome to talk about both, Mike.

歡迎你談論這兩個，邁克。

Lucas, you're right that affiliate dividends at last quarter, we guided to be above the top end of the range, and now we're guiding at the top end of the range, which we increased during the course of the year. And that reflects really 2 items. Angola LNG has in the affiliate income line, been generating earnings all year, but during the first half of the year, the cash return was a return to capital and the dividend. And so it's showing up in a different part of the cash flow statement.

盧卡斯，你是對的，上個季度的附屬公司股息，我們指導高於範圍的高端，現在我們指導範圍的高端，我們在這一年中增加了。這實際上反映了 2 個項目。安哥拉液化天然氣在附屬收入線中，全年都在產生收益，但在今年上半年，現金回報是資本回報和股息。所以它出現在現金流量表的不同部分。

And then the second item is, given the uncertainty at CPC, TCO is holding more cash. We'll get more cash out of TCO. But I think TCO appropriately is just being cautious. As Mike said, all of our barrels are flowing. In October, we expect them all to flow. In November, we expect the repairs to be completed shortly. That said, they're just being cautious and holding a little higher cash balances. So we'll be at the top end of the range through 3Q, I think we're at about $2 billion of affiliate dividends. You can confirm that with Roderick.

然後第二項是，鑑於 CPC 的不確定性，TCO 持有更多現金。我們將從 TCO 中獲得更多現金。但我認為適當的 TCO 只是謹慎。正如邁克所說，我們所有的桶都在流動。在 10 月，我們預計它們都會流動起來。 11 月，我們預計維修工作將很快完成。也就是說，他們只是保持謹慎並持有更高的現金餘額。因此，到第三季度，我們將處於範圍的頂端，我認為我們的附屬股息約為 20 億美元。你可以和羅德里克確認。

But the reason why you're seeing that the cash flow line of affiliate income less dividends being a little bit larger than maybe you'd expect, it's primarily those 2 drivers in terms of the quirks of Angola LNG accounting and TCO holding cash balances, which will be a temporary thing, and we expect that, that we'll see higher cash in the future from them.

但是，您看到附屬收入減去股息的現金流量線比您預期的要大一點的原因，主要是這兩個驅動因素，即安哥拉液化天然氣會計和 TCO 持有現金餘額的怪癖，這將是暫時的，我們預計，未來我們會從他們那裡看到更高的現金。

Okay. Gulf of Mexico, Lucas, as you know, we're one of the largest leaseholders in the Gulf. We've got over 270 leases out there and a strong base business, a lot of installed infrastructure that enables capital-efficient brownfield development. And importantly, it's one of the most carbon-efficient assets in our portfolio with a carbon intensity of about 6 kilograms of CO2 per barrel of oil equivalent. Lease Sale 257 is the one that was in question. Here a few months ago, as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act, that's been clarified and that lease sale is proceeding.

好的。墨西哥灣，盧卡斯，如您所知，我們是墨西哥灣最大的租賃商之一。我們有超過 270 份租約和強大的基礎業務，大量已安裝的基礎設施可以實現資本高效的棕地開發。重要的是，它是我們投資組合中碳效率最高的資產之一，碳強度約為每桶石油當量 6 公斤二氧化碳。租賃銷售 257 是有問題的。幾個月前，由於《通貨膨脹減少法》的出台，這一點得到了澄清，租賃銷售正在進行中。

We picked up 34 leases in that sale. And we look forward to continued leasing by the federal government as indicated and kind of encouraged by the Inflation Reduction Act, and we'll participate in those. In terms of production growth, we will advance a number of projects that are underway right now. Jack St. Malo has a multiphase pumping project that starts up this year and some additional development drilling. Bigfoot has ongoing development drilling and water injection that will begin in the first quarter of next year.

我們在那次銷售中獲得了 34 份租約。我們期待聯邦政府繼續租賃，正如《通脹降低法案》所表明和鼓勵的那樣，我們將參與其中。在產量增長方面，我們將推進一些目前正在進行的項目。 Jack St. Malo 有一個今年啟動的多階段抽水項目和一些額外的開發鑽探。 Bigfoot 正在進行鑽探和注水開發，將於明年第一季度開始。

Mad Dog 2 is operated by one of our partners, and I would refer you to them for an update on that project. We've got at St. Malo, our waterflood first injection plan for next year. Anchor a new greenfield project. We expect first oil on that in 2024. Whale, another greenfield project operated by one of our partners. I expect first oil on that towards the end of 2024.

Mad Dog 2 由我們的一位合作夥伴運營，我建議您向他們了解該項目的最新情況。我們在 St. Malo 有了明年的第一次注水計劃。錨定一個新的新建項目。我們預計 2024 年將出現第一批石油。鯨魚，另一個由我們的合作夥伴運營的綠地項目。我預計將在 2024 年底出現第一批石油。

And then we recently took FID in the second quarter of this year on the Ballymore project and expect first oil on that one in 2025. So I appreciate the question because oftentimes, I hear people say, well, we can see the Kazakhstan growth. We can see the Permian. What else do you have? We've got a string of projects there in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico that are kind of sequentially lined out that will steadily contribute to production growth here in the U.S. from the deepwater.

然後我們最近在今年第二季度對 Ballymore 項目進行了 FID，預計 2025 年將在該項目上獲得第一批石油。所以我很欣賞這個問題，因為我經常聽到人們說，嗯，我們可以看到哈薩克斯坦的增長。我們可以看到二疊紀。你還有什麼？我們在墨西哥灣的深水區有一系列項目，這些項目按順序排列，將穩步促進美國深水區的產量增長。

And our next question will come from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Biraj Borkhataria 和 RBC。

I've got 2 left, please. First one is just going back to Kazakhstan and CPC. My understanding is there's been sort of fortuitous timing for Tengiz because one of the other projects in Kazakhstan has been offline, which has allowed Tengiz to flow despite the capacity obviously being lower.

我還有2個，拜託。第一個只是回到哈薩克斯坦和中共。我的理解是，對於 Tengiz 來說，這是一個偶然的時機，因為哈薩克斯坦的其他項目之一已經下線，這使得 Tengiz 能夠流動，儘管容量明顯較低。

So I was just trying to understand, hypothetically, if Kazakh production comes back up to full capacity, but the pipeline capacity is maintained to be reduced or is not at full capacity? Then do all the projects get pro rata down equally? Or is there any other quirks that we need to be aware of there as it relates to Tengiz?

所以我只是想了解，假設哈薩克的生產恢復到滿負荷，但管道產能保持在減少或沒有滿負荷？那麼所有的項目都是按比例下降的嗎？或者是否還有其他與 Tengiz 相關的怪癖需要我們注意？

And then the second question is on your LNG portfolio, performed extremely strong this quarter. Can you say what proportion of your LNG portfolio is sold under long-term contracts? And what portion is sold on a spot basis, either for the year or over the medium term?

然後第二個問題是關於您的液化天然氣投資組合，本季度表現非常強勁。你能說一下你的液化天然氣投資組合中有多少是根據長期合同出售的？什麼部分是現貨出售的，無論是在一年內還是在中期？

Yes. So at CPC, I mentioned earlier that right now, only 1 of the 3 single point moorings is operational. The other 2 are down for some maintenance and repair work that's well underway. And so we would expect that work to be completed and to be able to handle full flows on CPC here before too long. If for some reason that didn't happen, and we were constrained to the 1 SPM, that has the capacity to load out about 70% of what CPC can move when it's operating full.

是的。所以在 CPC，我之前提到過，現在 3 個單點繫泊中只有 1 個在運行。另外 2 台因正在進行的一些維護和維修工作而停機。因此，我們預計這項工作很快就會完成，並能夠在這里處理 CPC 的全部流量。如果由於某種原因沒有發生這種情況，並且我們被限制為 1 SPM，那麼它有能力加載 CPC 在其滿負荷運行時可以移動的大約 70%。

So there would be some constraints on movements. TCO has long been the initial, the largest and in many ways I think the most important shipper on that line and that's reflected in some of the practices that I don't want to get into the details, but we would still be able to flow barrels, maybe not all of our barrels, but I think TCO would be well positioned to not be disadvantaged, let me say that, if there were some sort of proration underway.

所以對運動會有一些限制。 TCO 長期以來一直是最初的、最大的，並且在許多方面我認為是該航線上最重要的托運人，這反映在我不想深入細節的一些實踐中，但我們仍然能夠流動桶，也許不是我們所有的桶，但我認為 TCO 將處於有利地位，不會處於不利地位，讓我這麼說，如果正在進行某種按比例分配的話。

I'll just add that the nominations for CPC for November have already been put in place and Tengiz TCO essentially got a full nomination even for November. And again, that's even in a situation if the SPMs are not repaired. Of course, if they're repaired by then, fine issue, but even if they stay down for November, TCO has already received a full nomination.

我只想補充一點，11 月份的 CPC 提名已經到位，即使是 11 月份，Tengiz TCO 基本上也獲得了完整的提名。同樣，即使在 SPM 未修復的情況下也是如此。當然，如果到時候修好了，沒問題，但即使他們在 11 月停工，TCO 也已經獲得了完整的提名。

On the LNG question Biraj, it's notionally around 80% contracted, 20% spot. That's a combination of both of our Australia LNG operations and our West Africa operations. Our West Africa tends to be almost all spot and Australia is closer to 90-10. So that averages out to about 80-20. And we'll give guidance on our spot price sensitivity. We'll do that in the fourth quarter call at the end of January. It depends on how many spot cargoes are produced, both out of, again, our West Africa and Australia operations.

在液化天然氣問題 Biraj 上，理論上大約 80% 是合同的，20% 是現貨。這是我們澳大利亞液化天然氣業務和西非業務的結合。我們的西非幾乎都是現貨，而澳大利亞則接近 90-10。所以平均約為80-20。我們將就現貨價格敏感度提供指導。我們將在 1 月底的第四季度電話會議中這樣做。這取決於生產了多少現貨貨物，同樣來自我們的西非和澳大利亞業務。

And our next question will come from Irene Himona with SocGen.

我們的下一個問題將來自法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona。

Congratulations on the very strong results. My first question, your financial framework is clearly to manage through the cycle. But at the same time, the current uncertainty on the commodity price outlook is rather extreme, and that is partly because of the risks or fears of a recession. So my question is, as you look at your Downstream businesses, whether in the U.S. or Asia, have you seen any signs of an economic slowdown which would cause you some concern as you look ahead to 2023 and which might perhaps drive a more conservative approach to CapEx growth?

祝賀你取得了非常好的結果。我的第一個問題，您的財務框架顯然是要管理整個週期。但與此同時，目前大宗商品價格前景的不確定性相當極端，部分原因是經濟衰退的風險或擔憂。所以我的問題是，當您查看您的下游業務時，無論是在美國還是亞洲，您是否看到任何經濟放緩的跡象，這會在您展望 2023 年時引起您的一些擔憂，這可能會促使您採取更保守的方法資本支出增長？

Yes, Irene, thanks. Demand remains pretty strong globally across the product. Now there are some variations in that. Certainly, the U.S. West Coast, which had some refining issues and prices reflected that. We saw gasoline demand in the third quarter, responsive to those higher prices and a little bit of softness there.

是的，艾琳，謝謝。整個產品的全球需求仍然相當強勁。現在有一些變化。當然，存在一些煉油問題和價格的美國西海岸反映了這一點。我們在第三季度看到了汽油需求，這對價格上漲和那裡的疲軟有所反應。

Diesel demand has been pretty strong around the world, maybe a little less so in China, given some of the lockdowns that they're seeing. And aviation demand has been steadily coming back as people are flying again not quite to pre-COVID levels yet, but steadily increasing. And so overall, I wouldn't say that product demand that we've seen to date is sending a strong signal that a recession is underway or that the economy is significantly slowing. As I said, there's always some kind of regional or maybe sectoral unique characteristics. But no, we're not really seeing that yet, Irene.

鑑於他們看到的一些封鎖措施，全球柴油需求一直非常強勁，而在中國可能會稍遜一籌。航空需求一直在穩步回升，因為人們的飛行還沒有完全回到 COVID 之前的水平，而是在穩步增長。所以總的來說，我不會說我們迄今為止看到的產品需求發出了一個強烈的信號，表明經濟正在衰退或經濟正在顯著放緩。正如我所說，總是存在某種區域或部門的獨特特徵。但是不，我們還沒有真正看到這一點，艾琳。

My supplementary question, if I can go back to renewable natural gas, please. LCSS prices have more or less halved over the last year. I wonder if you can help us understand the impact, if any, on your own R&D. Does it create some pressures to perhaps work more on the technology to try and reduce the costs, given that the value of the incentive is half what it was last year?

我的補充問題，如果我可以回到可再生天然氣，請。 LCSS 價格在過去一年中或多或少地減少了一半。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解對您自己的研發的影響（如果有的話）。考慮到激勵措施的價值是去年的一半，是否會產生一些壓力，可能會在技術上進行更多工作以嘗試降低成本？

Sure. So let me set the incentive aside for a second. In every one of our Downstream businesses, we're always working on reducing costs and improving technology and finding ways to become more efficient. And so that's inherent in our business. The dynamics around LCFS credits, RINs, AB32 credits in California, the EU trading scheme. All of these things, we have to manage through their own cycles.

當然。因此，讓我暫時擱置激勵措施。在我們的每一項下游業務中，我們一直致力於降低成本和改進技術，並尋找提高效率的方法。所以這是我們業務固有的。加州的 LCFS 積分、RIN、AB32 積分、歐盟貿易計劃的動態。所有這些事情，我們都必須通過自己的周期來管理。

And it's a part of our business that is related to but not necessarily correlated to the fundamental supply-demand dynamics that drive physical flows because you have government allocations of credits and whether people are building inventories or credits or drawing down inventories of these credits. And so they don't necessarily correlate with the underlying commodity. And we've got a fair amount of experience in managing that.

它是我們業務的一部分，與推動實物流動的基本供需動態相關，但不一定相關，因為政府分配了信貸，以及人們是否在建立庫存或信貸或提取這些信貸的庫存。因此它們不一定與基礎商品相關。我們在管理這方面擁有豐富的經驗。

Certainly, the economics on something like RNG rely on the credit structure and the regulatory framework that incentivized those businesses. And if you see the credits declining in value that it starts to erode a little bit of the margin in that business. We have to take a long-term view on these things. And I think the regulators do the same. And as they see credit values reflect a lot of length in credits, that suggests that the technology is advancing, the supply is advancing and they can set more ambitious targets. And so these things evolve over time. And I think our people have a pretty good track record of managing in that environment.

當然，像 RNG 這樣的東西的經濟學依賴於激勵這些業務的信貸結構和監管框架。如果你看到信貸價值下降，它就會開始侵蝕該業務的一點利潤。我們必須以長遠的眼光看待這些事情。我認為監管機構也是如此。當他們看到信用值反映了信用的很多長度時，這表明技術正在進步，供應正在進步，他們可以設定更雄心勃勃的目標。所以這些事情隨著時間的推移而發展。而且我認為我們的員工在這種環境中的管理方面有著非常好的記錄。

And our last question comes from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們的最後一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Mike and Pierre, one question for each. First is a simple one. In the past in your presentation, when you're talking about Downstream, we talk about what's the chemical earning sequentially, whether they are up or down. You didn't mention in your presentation at this time. Does that means that chemical earnings is actually relatively flat, which is surprising given how much is the margin drop we've seen in the industry. So that's the first question.

邁克和皮埃爾，每人一個問題。首先是一個簡單的。過去在您的演講中，當您談論下游時，我們會討論化學品的順序收益是什麼，無論它們是上漲還是下跌。您此時沒有在演示文稿中提及。這是否意味著化學收益實際上相對持平，考慮到我們在該行業看到的利潤率下降幅度，這令人驚訝。所以這是第一個問題。

Second question on Mike, is for the LNG longer-term strategy. most of your peers that have been pretty aggressive in growing their LNG operation, you have very possible or at least very cash flow rich LNG operation, but you don't really have much time to grow at least on the table. Can you maybe elaborate that what is your longer-term -- medium- to longer-term strategy in LNG.

關於邁克的第二個問題是關於液化天然氣的長期戰略。你的大多數同行在發展他們的液化天然氣業務方面非常積極，你很有可能或至少有非常現金流量豐富的液化天然氣業務，但你真的沒有太多時間至少在桌面上增長。您能否詳細說明一下您在液化天然氣中的長期 - 中長期戰略。

Sure, Paul. Yes, quickly on chemicals, earnings were a little bit lower quarter-on-quarter. And that's really a function of margins. We had higher ethane prices and lower polyethylene prices. And so the olefins margins, which is the largest driver of our performance were squeezed. So it did go down sequentially.

當然，保羅。是的，化學品方面的收益很快就環比下降了一點。這實際上是利潤的函數。我們有較高的乙烷價格和較低的聚乙烯價格。因此，作為我們業績的最大推動力的烯烴利潤受到擠壓。所以它確實依次下降。

On LNG strategy, we've long favored the Pacific Basin, given the best customers were in Japan, Korea, Taiwan markets and our resource position in the Pacific. The Atlantic Basin, we've got exposure to it. But Europe traditionally has been a market where you were competing with Russian pipe gas and just less attractive. With the changes now that we see in markets, we're increasing exposure to Atlantic Basin LNG. We've done a couple of deals with Gulf Coast projects that are being developed that will give us offtake that we can move into global markets.

在液化天然氣戰略上，我們一直看好太平洋盆地，因為最好的客戶在日本、韓國、台灣市場以及我們在太平洋的資源地位。大西洋盆地，我們已經接觸到它。但歐洲傳統上一直是一個與俄羅斯管道天然氣競爭的市場，而且吸引力較小。隨著我們現在在市場上看到的變化，我們正在增加對大西洋盆地液化天然氣的敞口。我們已經與正在開發的墨西哥灣沿岸項目進行了幾筆交易，這將使我們能夠進入全球市場。

And then we're advancing projects in the Eastern Mediterranean and the assets that were acquired with the Noble acquisition, that would potentially allow an expansion of the Leviathan field to provide LNG supply that can go into global markets. We've looked at other things. So the big process has been underway in cutter. We certainly were deeply involved in evaluating that opportunity.

然後我們正在推進東地中海的項目以及通過收購來寶獲得的資產，這可能會擴大利維坦油田，以提供可以進入全球市場的液化天然氣供應。我們已經看過其他的東西了。因此，切割機的大流程正在進行中。我們當然深深地參與了評估這個機會。

Like everything that we look at, LNG has to compete against the other investment opportunities in our portfolio. We're going to stay very disciplined on capital and we won't invest in everything that we could. We're going to invest in the best things that we can. And I expect that will include some LNG projects over time.

就像我們所看到的一切一樣，液化天然氣必須與我們投資組合中的其他投資機會競爭。我們將在資本方面保持非常自律，我們不會投資於我們可以投資的一切。我們將投資於我們能做的最好的事情。我預計隨著時間的推移，這將包括一些液化天然氣項目。

I would like to thank everyone for your time today. We appreciate your interest in Chevron and everyone's participation on the call today. Please stay safe and healthy. Sarah, back to you.

我要感謝大家今天的時間。感謝您對雪佛龍的興趣以及今天每個人都參與電話會議。請保持安全和健康。莎拉，回到你身邊。

This concludes Chevron's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference. You may now disconnect.

雪佛龍公司 2022 年第三季度財報會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。