雪佛龍 (CVX) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to Chevron's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

早安.我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。歡迎參加雪佛龍 2023 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn the conference over to General Manager of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Jake Spiering. Please go ahead.

我現在將會議交給雪佛龍公司投資人關係總經理傑克‧斯皮林先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Katie. Welcome to Chevron’s first quarter 2023 earnings conference call and webcast. I’m Jake Spiering, General Manager of Investor Relations. Our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth; and CFO, Pierre Breber, are on the call with me. We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron’s website.

謝謝你，凱蒂。歡迎參加雪佛龍 2023 年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。我是投資者關係總經理傑克‧斯皮林 (Jake Spiering)。我們的董事長兼執行長 Mike Wirth；財務長 Pierre Breber 正在與我通話。我們將參考雪佛龍網站上提供的幻燈片和準備好的評論。

Before we begin, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary statement on Slide 2.

在開始之前，請注意，本簡報包含估計、預測和其他前瞻性陳述。請查看投影片 2 上的警告聲明。

Now, I will turn it over to Mike.

現在，我將把它交給麥克。

All right. Thanks, Jake. Chevron delivered strong financial results again last quarter, the seventh consecutive quarter with return on capital employed greater than 12%. This enabled another record for cash returned to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

好的。謝謝，傑克。雪佛龍上季度再次取得強勁的財務業績，連續第七個季度使用資本回報率超過 12%。這使得股東現金返還創下新紀錄，同時保持強勁的資產負債表。

Since our investor day two months ago, we’ve remained focused on executing our plans: achieving important milestones on our major project in Kazakhstan; continuing to build activity levels in the Permian; positioning Bayou Bend to be one of the largest carbon storage projects in the United States; and safely and reliably delivering oil products and natural gas that help power the global economy.

自兩個月前的投資者日以來，我們一直專注於執行我們的計劃：在哈薩克斯坦的主要項目上實現重要里程碑；繼續提高二疊紀的活動水準；將 Bayou Bend 定位為美國最大的碳封存項目之一；安全可靠地輸送石油產品和天然氣，為全球經濟提供動力。

Next week, we’ll publish our corporate sustainability report. I encourage you to review it on our website as we provide updates on the ESG topics that matter to our business and our stakeholders.

下週，我們將發佈企業永續發展報告。我鼓勵您在我們的網站上查看它，因為我們提供了對我們的業務和利益相關者至關重要的 ESG 主題的最新資訊。

In closing, while commodity markets remain uncertain, our approach is unchanged: capital and cost discipline applied to advantaged assets in both traditional and new energy businesses; and steady returns of cash to shareholders. You can see that consistency in our actions and our results.

最後，儘管大宗商品市場仍存在不確定性，但我們的方針沒有改變：對傳統和新能源業務的優勢資產實施資本和成本約束；並為股東帶來穩定的現金回報。您可以看到我們的行動和結果的一致性。

Now to Pierre to discuss the quarter.

現在讓皮埃爾討論這個季度。

Thanks, Mike. We reported first quarter earnings of $6.6 billion, or $3.46 per share. Adjusted earnings were $6.7 billion, or $3.55 per share. We had one special item this quarter related to changes in the energy profits tax in the United Kingdom. The appendix of this presentation contains a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

謝謝，麥克。我們報告第一季收益為 66 億美元，即每股收益 3.46 美元。調整後收益為 67 億美元，即每股 3.55 美元。本季我們有一個特殊項目與英國能源利得稅的變化有關。本簡報的附錄包含非公認會計原則措施的調節表。

Strong operating cash flow enabled Chevron to deliver on its financial priorities during the quarter: a 6% per share dividend increase; higher CapEx within budget; net debt ratio under 5%; share repurchases at the top of our prior guidance range.

強勁的營運現金流使雪佛龍能夠在本季度實現其財務優先事項：每股股息增加 6%；預算內更高的資本支出；淨負債比率低於5%；股票回購處於我們先前指導範圍的頂部。

Adjusted first quarter earnings were up over $200 million versus last year despite 20% lower oil prices. Adjusted Upstream earnings were lower mainly due to realizations and adjusted downstream earnings increased primarily due to higher refining margins. Both segments benefited from a change in timing effects. Higher interest income and lower accruals for stock-based compensation decreased all other charges.

儘管油價下跌了 20%，但調整後的第一季獲利仍比去年增加了 2 億美元以上。調整後的上游收益下降主要是由於變現，調整後的下游收益增加主要是因為煉油利潤率上升。這兩個細分市場都受益於時間效應的變化。較高的利息收入和較低的股票薪酬應計費用減少了所有其他費用。

Compared with last quarter, adjusted earnings were down $1.1 billion. Adjusted upstream earnings decreased primarily due to lower realizations. Other items include the absence of last quarter’s dividend withholding tax at TCO and lower exploration and transportation expenses. Adjusted Downstream earnings were essentially flat. Lower margins and volumes were offset with higher chemical earnings and other favorable items including trading results. Lower accruals for incentive-based compensation decreased all other net charges and also benefited the operating segments.

與上季相比，調整後收益減少了 11 億美元。調整後的上游收益下降主要是由於變現率下降。其他項目包括上季度 TCO 中免除股息預扣稅以及較低的勘探和運輸費用。調整後的下游收益基本持平。較低的利潤和銷售量被較高的化學品收益和包括交易結果在內的其他有利項目所抵消。基於激勵的薪酬應計費用的降低減少了所有其他淨費用，也使營運部門受益。

First quarter oil equivalent production was down about 80 thousand barrels per day from last year due to the expiration of a contract in Thailand and the sale of our Eagle Ford asset. This was partially offset by growth in the Permian. We expect 2023 production growth in the Permian to be back-end loaded as wells put on production, POPs, increase across both operated and non-operated areas. We expect our royalty production to be roughly flat.

由於泰國合約到期以及我們 Eagle Ford 資產的出售，第一季石油當量產量比去年減少了約 8 萬桶/日。這被二疊紀盆地的成長部分抵消。我們預計 2023 年二疊紀盆地的產量成長將是後端負荷，因為作業區和非作業區的油井投產、持久性有機污染物的增加。我們預計我們的特許權使用費產量將大致持平。

As discussed during our Investor Day, we're increasing activity in New Mexico. All four company-operated rigs added this year, one each quarter, will be in New Mexico leading to more POPs expected in the second half of the year and into 2024. We also continue to be active in Texas. Last year, about half of our company-operated production was in the Delaware Basin in Texas with the remainder split about evenly between the Midland Basin and New Mexico.

正如我們在投資者日期間討論的那樣，我們正在增加在新墨西哥州的活動。今年新增的所有四家公司營運的鑽井平台（每季一個）都將位於新墨西哥州，預計下半年和2024 年將產生更多持久性有機污染物。州。去年，我們公司營運的產量約有一半位於德州的德拉瓦盆地，其餘部分則平均分佈在米德蘭盆地和新墨西哥州。

More than half of our non-operated production is with five major operators in large, contiguous positions in core areas of multi-year development programs, where we have visibility to CapEx and execution schedules and a royalty benefit compared to the operator.

我們一半以上的非營運生產由五家主要營運商負責，這些營運商位於多年開發計畫核心領域的大型連續位置，與營運商相比，我們可以了解資本支出和執行計畫以及特許權使用費收益。

The balance is with dozens of other operators where we have a little less visibility, but similar predictability from greater diversification. More than half of our royalty production comes from the Pecos River area in the heart of the Delaware Basin. The balance of our royalty position is in the remainder of the Delaware and Midland Basins, also with well-known operators. In summary, Chevron has a large, diverse position in the Permian with a unique royalty advantage where we learn from our own operations and from others.

平衡點是與其他數十家營運商相比，我們的可見度稍低，但透過更大的多元化實現了類似的可預測性。我們一半以上的特許權使用費來自特拉華盆地中心的佩科斯河地區。我們的特許權使用費餘額位於特拉華州和米德蘭盆地的其餘地區，也有知名營運商。總之，雪佛龍在二疊紀盆地擁有廣泛而多樣化的地位，具有獨特的特許權使用費優勢，我們可以從自己的業務和其他公司的業務中學習。

Now, looking ahead. In the second quarter, we expect planned turnarounds at Gorgon and in the Gulf of Mexico along with downtime at an FSO in Thailand and a number of planned refinery turnarounds. Also, we expect share buybacks to increase to a $17.5 billion annual rate.

現在，展望未來。在第二季度，我們預計戈爾貢和墨西哥灣將按計劃進行檢修，泰國的 FSO 將停工，並且一些煉油廠也將按計劃進行檢修。此外，我們預期股票回購年增率將增至 175 億美元。

In summary, 1Q was another quarter with strong financial results, continued capital discipline, and a steady return of cash to shareholders. We're confident that consistent and straightforward management, through commodity cycles, will create value for stakeholders.

總而言之，第一季是另一個財務業績強勁、資本紀律持續良好、股東現金回報穩定的季度。我們相信，在整個商品週期中，一致且直接的管理將為利害關係人創造價值。

Back to you, Jake.

回到你身邊，傑克。

That concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take your questions. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We'll do our best to get all your questions answered. Katie, please open the lines.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在準備好回答您的問題。請限制自己提出一個問題和一項後續行動。我們將盡力回答您的所有問題。凱蒂，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Devin McDermott。

So there was some helpful detail in the slides and the remarks on the breakdown of Permian operations. If I look at the quarter, your volumes did fall a bit sequentially in 1Q versus 4Q. I was wondering if you could just talk in a bit more detail about some of the drivers there. How things are going as you ramp New Mexico activity and then specifically the confidence that you have in that back half-weighted production ramp?

因此，幻燈片和有關二疊紀作業分解的評論中有一些有用的細節。如果我看一下這個季度，你的銷量在第一季與第四季度相比確實有所下降。我想知道您是否可以更詳細地談談那裡的一些驅動程式。當您增加新墨西哥州的活動時，情況進展如何，特別是您對後半加權產量增加的信心？

Yes. Thanks, Devin. And Pierre tried to show a little more detail, including breaking out co-op, NOJV and royalty talking about drilling activity and feet drilled, et cetera. So glad that, that was helpful. First quarter performance was a function of really the fact that NOJV and royalty production, which as you can see from that chart, is a meaningful portion of our overall production. It was down a little bit from fourth quarter of last year.

是的。謝謝，德文。皮埃爾試圖展示更多細節，包括打破合作社、NOJV 和皇室談論鑽探活動和鑽腳等。很高興，這很有幫助。第一季的業績實際上是 NOJV 和特許權使用費產量的一個函數，正如您從該圖表中看到的那樣，它是我們整體產量的一個有意義的部分。較去年第四季略有下降。

Now this gets a little lumpy due to how it gets reported by partners. And so over time, it's trended up, particularly the NOJV piece. But it was a little lumpy and it was down first quarter versus fourth quarter last year. Co-production was mostly flat from 4Q of last year to first quarter of this year.

現在，由於合作夥伴的報告方式，這變得有點混亂。隨著時間的推移，它的流行趨勢不斷上升，尤其是 NOJV 作品。但情況有點不穩定，第一季比去年第四季有所下降。從去年第四季到今年第一季，合拍片基本持平。

In terms of the full year outlook, on Slide 9 we show full year outlook. It's about 770,000 barrels a day. '22 was a little bit over 700,000 707,000, I think. Our co-op production will grow in the mid-single digits. NOJV, we expect to grow in the mid-teens. And royalty is roughly flat year-on-year is our expectation. So that kind of lays out first quarter and we still think that the guide we give is appropriate, as Pierre said, back-end loaded. So we'll be updating each quarter on that.

就全年展望而言，我們在幻燈片 9 中展示了全年展望。每天大約77萬桶。我認為 22 年的數字略高於 700,000 707,000。我們的合作社產量將以中個位數成長。 NOJV，我們預計在十幾歲左右成長。我們的預期是，特許權使用費比去年同期大致持平。因此，第一季的佈局，我們仍然認為我們提供的指南是合適的，正如皮埃爾所說，後端加載。因此，我們將每個季度對此進行更新。

Got it. Makes sense. And my follow-up is on TCO. And it's exciting that we're now less than a year away from start-up there. And back at the Investor Day, you noted that you had shifted to commissioning and the start-up work for WPMP. I was wondering if you could just give us an update on how things are going there, latest expectations on timing and then also the key milestones that we should be keeping an eye out for, for the balance of this year, ahead of start-up.

知道了。有道理。我的後續行動是 TCO。令人興奮的是，距離我們在那裡啟動還不到一年的時間。回到投資者日，您注意到您已轉向 WPMP 的調試和啟動工作。我想知道您能否向我們介紹事情的最新進展、對時間安排的最新期望，以及我們應該在今年剩餘時間啟動之前關注的關鍵里程碑。

Yes, absolutely. I actually was in Kazakhstan earlier this month. I had a chance to meet with the President of the Republic, some other senior officials and also spent time down at Tengiz and visited the job site, talked to both people from our construction team, people from the commissioning team, people from operations as we're preparing for a start-up. And I'll tell you, it looks a little less like a construction site, a little bit more like a plant than it did the last time I was down there.

是的，絕對是。事實上，這個月初我在哈薩克。我有機會會見了共和國總統和其他一些高級官員，並在田吉茲停留了一段時間，參觀了施工現場，與我們施工團隊的人員、調試團隊的人員以及運營人員進行了交談。 。我會告訴你，與我上次去那裡時相比，它看起來不太像建築工地，而更像工廠。

So the progress is very obvious. The headline I'll give you is there's no change to our cost or schedule guidance. We expect WPMP start-up to begin by the end of this year. Now that's the conversion of the field from high pressure to low pressure. So that will take some time as we take all the metering stations and field infrastructure down to low pressure, but that will still begin by the end of this year and the start-up of the future growth project, the portion that adds 260,000 barrels of oil production. That will begin by mid next year.

所以進步是非常明顯的。我給你的標題是我們的成本或時間表指導沒有變化。我們預計 WPMP 啟動將於今年底啟動。現在這就是場從高壓到低壓的轉換。因此，這將需要一些時間，因為我們將所有計量站和油田基礎設施降至低壓，但這仍將在今年年底開始，並啟動未來成長項目，即增加 26 萬桶石油的部分。這將於明年年中開始。

Both of these require a series of turnarounds and tie-ins and things like that. So it's quite a complex set of activities to get us to the point where we've got everything online. But there's a lot of work behind us. While I was there, we achieved mechanical completion on the third-generation sour gas injection facility, which was ahead of schedule. And there are a number of milestones that I mentioned or we talked about at the Investor Day that we've achieved. So we completed tie-in of the fuel gas system to the first gas turbine generator.

這兩者都需要一系列的周轉和搭配等等。因此，要讓我們把所有東西都放到網路上，需要進行一系列相當複雜的活動。但我們後面還有很多工作要做。我在那裡期間，我們提前完成了第三代酸性氣體注入設施的機械完工。我在投資者日提到或討論過我們已經實現了許多里程碑。這樣我們就完成了燃氣系統與第一台燃氣渦輪發電機的併網工作。

We fired that generator, so we know that it's working. In the second quarter, in terms of milestones to watch for, we're working to commission boilers, steam system, other utilities that are required for the start-up of the pressure boost facility, which is the key driver of that conversion from high-pressure to low-pressure field operations to enable sustained well deliverability. In the third quarter, we expect mechanical completion of the future growth project and then as I said, we'll begin start-up activities on the field conversion to low pressure by the end of this year.

我們啟動了發電機，所以我們知道它正在工作。在第二季度，就需要關注的里程碑而言，我們正在努力調試鍋爐、蒸汽系統以及啟動增壓設施所需的其他公用設施，這是從高壓轉變的關鍵驅動力-從壓力到低壓現場作業，以實現持續的油井產能。在第三季度，我們預計未來成長項目將機械完成，然後正如我所說，我們將在今年年底開始將現場轉換為低壓的啟動活動。

So those are some of the key milestones. And like I say, a lot behind us, but there's still a lot of complex work ahead. We'll be updating you on it every quarter.

這些是一些關鍵的里程碑。就像我說的，我們已經落後了很多，但前面還有很多複雜的工作。我們將每季向您通報最新情況。

We'll take our next question from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛尼爾梅塔的下一個問題。

Yes. Mike and Pierre, the first question is just around the LNG portfolio. A lot of volatility in the global gas markets over the course of last year. I'd just be curious how you guys are seeing the outlook and any updates on your portfolio, particularly down in Australia. We're recognized you're going to be taking some maintenance, but it seems like it's operating pretty well.

是的。麥克和皮埃爾，第一個問題是關於液化天然氣投資組合的。去年全球天然氣市場劇烈波動。我只是好奇你們如何看待前景和投資組合的任何更新，特別是在澳洲。我們知道您將進行一些維護，但看起來它運作得很好。

Sure. So look, overall, it's been a bit of a wild ride in gas markets over the last year. And we've seen prices extraordinarily strong. If you go back 2 years ago, they were extraordinarily weak. And they've certainly moderated now as we've had warmer weather in the Northern Hemisphere through the wintertime as the situation in Europe has, I think, become a little more stable. Certainly, inventories both in Europe and in the U.S. are much healthier than people were concerned about at one point in time.

當然。因此，總的來說，去年天然氣市場有點瘋狂。我們已經看到價格異常堅挺。如果你回到兩年前，他們是非常弱的。現在，隨著北半球整個冬季天氣變暖，它們現在肯定已經緩和了，我認為歐洲的局勢也變得更加穩定了。當然，歐洲和美國的庫存比人們在某個時間點擔心的要健康得多。

And so we're into a market that still is perhaps strong by historic standards, but certainly not nearly as strong as what we saw. Operations at Gorgon and Wheatstone are running very well. We had a record number of LNG cargoes go out of Australia last year. It was 10% better than the best year we've ever had. Reliability was first quartile for the 2 facilities. And so we feel good about that. We've started -- or this year, we'll start the second turnaround cycle, which is a 4-year cycle to turn trains around Gorgon Train 1. We'll have a major planned turnaround in the second quarter of this year.

因此，我們進入的市場按照歷史標準來看可能仍然強勁，但肯定沒有我們看到的那麼強勁。 Gorgon 和 Wheatstone 的業務運作良好。去年，我們從澳洲發出的液化天然氣貨物數量創下了紀錄。這比我們曾經經歷過的最好的一年好 10%。這兩個設施的可靠性均位於第一四分位。所以我們對此感覺良好。我們已經開始——或者說今年，我們將開始第二個週轉週期，這是一個為期 4 年的周轉週期，旨在圍繞 Gorgon Train 1 進行週轉。

And of course, we're working on the next stage of field development to continue to keep the field full with wells drilled and start-up activity, tie-in activity, et cetera, underway on the next phase of the gas developments to bring that into the facility. So things in Australia are good from an operational standpoint and a reliability standpoint.

當然，我們正在致力於下一階段的油田開發，以繼續保持油田充滿鑽探井和啟動活動、搭配活動等，下一階段的天然氣開發正在進行中，以帶來進入該設施。因此，從營運角度和可靠性角度來看，澳洲的情況都很好。

More broadly speaking, we continue to look at opportunities in our LNG portfolio beyond Australia. Certainly, we've talked at some length about the Eastern Med. So belabor that, but looking at concepts and expect to select the concept on the Leviathan expansion by the end of this year.

更廣泛地說，我們繼續在澳洲以外的液化天然氣投資組合中尋找機會。當然，我們已經詳細討論了東方醫學。因此，請詳細說明這一點，但請看看概念並期望在今年年底之前選擇利維坦擴充的概念。

And in Equatorial Guinea, we're looking at opportunities to bring additional gas resources in through existing infrastructure. So continue to be very focused on what we can do to add value in our LNG business, but to do it in a way that's returns accretive.

在赤道幾內亞，我們正在尋找機會透過現有基礎設施引入更多天然氣資源。因此，我們將繼續專注於我們可以做些什麼來增加我們的液化天然氣業務的價值，但要以回報增值的方式來做。

That's great. And then the follow-up is just on return of capital. And I think you guys have been pretty clear about the range that we should be thinking about from a buyback perspective, just on dividend growth. Just talk about how do you expect that to track relative to your free cash flow per share expectations?

那太棒了。接下來就是資本回籠了。我認為你們已經非常清楚我們應該從回購的角度考慮的範圍，只是股息成長。只是談談您預計這將如何追蹤您的每股自由現金流預期？

Yes. I think we have been clear on buybacks, so I won't spend time on that. On dividends, I would say our track record should speak for itself. Of course, these are decisions that are made by the Board each year, but we've got 36 consecutive years now of higher payouts. Over the last 5 years, our dividend growth per share has been double that of our closest peer. So we've sustained this not over the long haul, but also in the short term through the volatile period of time that we've seen our dividend track record, I think, stands very well.

是的。我認為我們在回購問題上已經很明確了，所以我不會花時間在這上面。關於股息，我想說我們的業績記錄應該不言而喻。當然，這些是董事會每年都會做出的決定，但我們現在已經連續 36 年支付更高的股息。在過去 5 年裡，我們的每股股息成長是最接近同業的兩倍。因此，我們不僅長期維持了這一點，而且在短期內也維持了這一波動，我認為我們的股息記錄保持得非常好。

I'll reiterate our 4 financial priorities, the first of which is to sustain and grow the dividend as I just mentioned, a 6% increase earlier this year and a compound annual growth rate of 6% over the last 15 years. So I think again, I'll say our track record on the dividend speaks for itself. I think Pierre mentioned that the quarter we just closed included the highest ever cash distributions to shareholders for the fourth consecutive quarter that we can say that. And we're very mindful of continuing to deliver cash in a predictable and consistent manner back to shareholders through both of those vehicles.

我將重申我們的 4 個財務重點，其中第一個是維持和增加股息，正如我剛才提到的，今年早些時候增加了 6%，過去 15 年的複合年增長率為 6%。所以我再想一下，我會說我們在股息方面的記錄不言而喻。我想皮埃爾提到，我們剛結束的季度包括連續第四個季度向股東分配的最高現金分配，我們可以這麼說。我們非常注意繼續透過這兩種工具以可預測和一致的方式向股東返還現金。

We'll go next to Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們將與富國銀行一起去羅傑·里德旁邊。

Yes. Maybe come back to the Permian a little bit. I know you've been providing us a lot more detail on things and appreciate that and the detail for the overall production breakdown in the U.S. But looking at the Permian, the Chevron-operated portion versus your JV non-op, as we think about some of the snags that have been hit over the last couple of quarters, where have been the biggest problems?

是的。也許稍微回到二疊紀。我知道您一直在向我們提供更多有關事情的詳細信息，並且很欣賞這一點以及美國整體生產細分的詳細信息。非營運的部分，正如我們所考慮的那樣過去幾個季度遇到的一些障礙，最大的問題在哪裡？

Has it been in the operated or the non-operated? And then as you think about correcting those over the next couple of quarters, how much of that is Chevron control versus partner?

是手術的還是非手術的？然後，當您考慮在接下來的幾季糾正這些問題時，雪佛龍控制權與合作夥伴之間的關係有多少？

Yes. So I will speak to our operated operation because I really can't speak on behalf of the others. They should speak on behalf of their operations. We certainly learned from those. But we spent a pretty good amount of time at the Investor Day talking about the learnings on drilled but uncompleted wells and sat for a long time talking about the prior basis of design for the wells including spacing and proppant loading, talking about multi-bench development and we've learned a lot from our own operations, and those learnings are augmented by the things that we learned from others.

是的。所以我會談談我們的運營，因為我真的不能代表其他人發言。他們應該代表他們的業務發言。我們當然從中吸取了教訓。但我們在投資者日上花了相當多的時間談論已鑽但未完工的井的經驗教訓，並花了很長時間談論井的先前設計基礎，包括間距和支撐劑裝載，談論多台開發我們從自己的營運中學到了很多東西，而我們從其他人身上學到的東西又增強了這些知識。

And so we talked about more single-bench development, more activity in New Mexico. We continue to be very focused on driving strong returns and not optimizing to production or some other metric. Just to give you a little bit more guidance, Roger, for this year in terms of how to think about it. We expect royalty production to be roughly flat in the neighborhood of a little bit over 100,000, maybe 110,000 barrels a day. Most of that comes from the Pecos River area where we've got big operators, Oxy is largest operator in that area, but others that are well-known operators in that area. And then we've got some that comes in from the Midland as well from big operators where there's a lot of visibility into what their plans are.

因此，我們討論了新墨西哥州更多的單板凳開發和更多活動。我們仍然非常專注於推動強勁的回報，而不是針對生產或其他一些指標進行最佳化。只是為了給你更多一點指導，羅傑，今年如何思考它。我們預計特許權使用費產量將大致持平，約為每天 10 萬桶，甚至 11 萬桶。其中大部分來自佩科斯河地區，那裡有大型營運商，Oxy 是該地區最大的營運商，但其他營運商也是該地區知名的營運商。然後我們有一些來自米德蘭以及大型運營商的信息，這些運營商對他們的計劃有很多了解。

Our co-op production growth, we expect to be mid-single digits for the full year. Maybe a touch higher than the midpoint of single digits and expect roughly 190 wells to be put on production this year, which is down a little bit from last year, maybe 10% from last year when our co-op production increased 35,000 barrels a day. We've got growth in the Texas side of the Delaware earlier in the year, the New Mexico side later in the year, which follows the chart Pierre showed you with drilling lateral feet. And then in the NOJV, the growth is higher. It's in the mid-teens for the full year. The gross number of POPs in our NOJVs are expected to be up about 15% year-on-year.

我們預計全年合作社產量成長將達到中個位數。可能會略高於個位數的中點，預計今年將有大約 190 口井投產，比去年略有下降，可能比去年減少 10%，當時我們的合作社產量每天增加 35,000 桶。今年早些時候，我們在特拉華州的德克薩斯州一側取得了增長，今年晚些時候在新墨西哥州一側也取得了增長，這遵循皮埃爾向您展示的側腳鑽孔圖表。然後在 NOJV 中，增長更高。全年的溫度都在十幾歲左右。我們NOJVs的持久性有機污染物總數預計將年增約15%。

And it's interesting our net POPs actually increased more than the gross because we have relatively high working interest and a significant royalty advantage in the non-ops. And so a 15% increase in gross POPs actually translates into more production than you might presume. We've got really good visibility into the execution schedule. We've received more than 3/4 of the AFEs for this year's activity. And operations have actually begun on more than 3/4 of the NOJV wells that we expect to be POP-ed this year.

有趣的是，我們的淨持久性有機污染物的成長實際上比總量的成長還要多，因為我們在非營運領域擁有相對較高的工作興趣和顯著的特許權使用費優勢。因此，持久性有機污染物總量增加 15% 實際上轉化為比您想像的更多的產量。我們對執行計劃有了很好的了解。我們已收到今年活動超過 3/4 的 AFE。事實上，超過 3/4 的 NOJV 井實際上已經開始作業，我們預計今年將進行 POP。

So it's a mix. We've got a really strong but also a bit of a complex portfolio because of these 3 different contributors, and we're continuing to hold the guidance, as I said earlier, at about 770,000 for full year.

所以這是一個混合體。由於這 3 個不同的貢獻者，我們擁有一個非常強大但也有點複雜的投資組合，正如我之前所說，我們將繼續保持全年約 77 萬人的指導。

No, that's great. I appreciate that. And a follow-up question, I suspect, is for you, Pierre. Working capital, obviously tends to be a draw in Q1. You've got the sounds like a decent level of planned maintenance in Q2. So just any thoughts on how we should look at overall cash flow generation Q2, maybe rest of the year in terms of the cadence?

不，那太好了。我很欣賞這一點。我想，後續問題是問你的，皮埃爾。營運資金顯然在第一季趨於平淡。聽起來第二季的計畫維護水準相當不錯。那麼，我們應該如何看待第二季的整體現金流生成，也許是今年剩餘時間的節奏？

Well, in terms of working capital, Roger, the first quarter, as you said, was a build in working capital draw on cash, and that was primarily inventory related. If you saw last year, we had draws on working capital, that was primarily through taxes payable. And you'll see in the second quarter, some of those payments happening. We try to give everything excluding working capital because over the course of time, that tends to zero out and there's a pattern, but there's some variability around it.

嗯，就營運資金而言，羅傑，正如您所說，第一季是現金營運資金的增加，這主要與庫存相關。如果你看到去年，我們就動用了營運資金，這主要是透過應付稅金。您將在第二季度看到其中一些付款的發生。我們嘗試提供除營運資金之外的一切，因為隨著時間的推移，營運資金往往會歸零，並且存在一種模式，但也存在一些變化。

So that's the guidance I would give on you. In terms of free cash flow, it depends on -- and cash from ops depends on commodity prices and margins, and we gave a lot of that during our Investor Day and some upside and downside cases. But in terms of working capital, you'll see timing effects. We try to look through them and exclude them. And then next quarter, you should expect some large tax payments, which will be obviously a draw on cash.

這就是我會給你的指導。就自由現金流而言，它取決於——來自營運的現金取決於大宗商品價格和利潤率，我們在投資者日期間給出了很多內容以及一些上行和下行的案例。但就營運資金而言，你會看到時間效應。我們試圖審視它們並排除它們。然後下個季度，您應該預計會繳納大量稅款，這顯然會消耗現金。

We'll take our next question from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們將回答豐業銀行 Paul Cheng 提出的下一個問題。

Have been the kind of project due to the characteristic that we have different returns and different payback period criteria that I think management put so for your low-carbon investment, not those that for the own emission mitigation activity, but that in terms of like CCUS as a new business, for that kind of business that what is the minimum internal rate of return and payback period that you assign in order for you to sanction the projects.

由於我們有不同的回報和不同的投資回收期標準，我認為管理層為您的低碳投資制定了這樣的項目，而不是那些針對自己的減排活動的項目，而是針對CCUS之類的項目作為一項新業務，對於此類業務，您為批准專案而指定的最低內部回報率和投資回收期是多少。

Yes, Paul. Look, the reality is these are brand-new businesses. And we've got a lot of confidence in the returns and payback periods that we expect out of businesses we've been in for many decades and understand very well in well-established markets. These are businesses that don't exist today. They are in part enabled by a government policy, the rules of which are not yet fully written and the durability of which we need to ask ourselves questions about as we commit capital to it. So they're different. They're very different. Our goal over the long term is to get similar returns out of these businesses as we get out of our core business.

是的，保羅。看，現實是這些都是全新的業務。我們對我們從事數十年的業務所期望的回報和投資回收期充滿信心，並且對成熟的市場非常了解。這些是今天不存在的企業。它們在某種程度上是由政府政策推動的，其規則尚未完全制定，我們在投入資金時需要問自己問題的持久性。所以他們是不同的。他們非常不同。我們的長期目標是從這些業務中獲得與我們退出核心業務類似的回報。

And so that would be double-digit returns. In the midterm to the near term, we're going to have to go into some of these things that offer high growth and opportunity with our eyes wide open, but also understand that as we establish them in the early days, we may not see the returns that we expect in the fullness of time. So we make big investments. Our expectation is over the life cycle of these investments, we're going to deliver those kinds of returns. But we're also mindful of the fact we've got to develop technology.

所以這將是兩位數的回報。在中期和短期內，我們將不得不睜大眼睛進入其中一些提供高成長和機會的事情，但也要明白，當我們在早期建立它們時，我們可能看不到這些事情當我們期望在時間成熟時獲得回報。所以我們進行了大量投資。我們的期望是在這些投資的生命週期內，我們將提供這些回報。但我們也注意到我們必須開發技術這一事實。

We've got to scale these things. We've got to help markets mature. We've got to build operational experience. We've got to build risk management experience, supply chain and customer capabilities in these businesses. And so in the near term, we'll be understanding of the fact that the returns in the short term will probably look different than our long-term expectations but we won't go into things that we don't believe offer the long-term prospect for returns, which is why we have steadily avoided more well-established sectors like wind and solar, where we could go into those today because the risks are better defined, but we also understand the returns.

我們必須擴大這些事情的規模。我們必須幫助市場成熟。我們必須累積營運經驗。我們必須在這些業務中建立風險管理經驗、供應鏈和客戶能力。因此，在短期內，我們將了解這樣一個事實，即短期回報可能會與我們的長期預期有所不同，但我們不會從事那些我們認為無法提供長期回報的事情。我們一直避開風能和太陽能等更成熟的行業，我們今天可以進入這些行業，因為風險得到了更好的定義，但我們也了解回報。

And so we were just trying to do these kinds of projects, we would go into those, but they don't offer the kinds of returns we expect out of the things that we're working on.

因此，我們只是嘗試做這些類型的項目，我們會參與這些項目，但它們並沒有提供我們期望從我們正在做的事情中獲得的回報。

A second question is that your largest U.S. competitor just announced that they're going to push more aggressively into trading and establish a single trading organization and think that there's quite a fair amount of opportunities out there in the market that they can capture. The sensory thinking maybe that someone of a rule book from -- that pay book from Chevron. I think Chevron has always been a little bit more conservative on that.

第二個問題是，你們最大的美國競爭對手剛剛宣布，他們將更積極地推動貿易並建立一個單一的貿易組織，並認為市場上有相當多的機會可以抓住。感官思維可能是來自雪佛龍公司的規則手冊中的某個人。我認為雪佛龍在這方面一直比較保守。

So do you think that [leaves] the opportunity for a company similar to Chevron that have a lot of global reach and more of a physical ones and have a knowledge edge over others. So is there an opportunity that we may be missing for Chevron?

那麼，您是否認為這給像雪佛龍這樣的公司留下了機會，這些公司擁有很大的全球影響力和更多的實體影響力，並且比其他公司擁有知識優勢。那麼雪佛龍是否有可能錯過的機會呢？

Well, Paul, what I would say is I think maybe your perception is a little bit miscalibrated from what I would describe. We have always had a global trading organization for many, many years, I used to run it. Pierre used to run it. And so we're an active trader. We trade in a certain way. And I'll give you the 3-word kind of overarching description, we flow, optimize and trade. So the first role of our commercial organization is to ensure our barrels and molecules flow to the market.

好吧，保羅，我想說的是，我認為你的看法可能與我的描述有點偏差。很多很多年以來，我們一直擁有一個全球貿易組織，我曾經負責管理它。皮埃爾曾經經營過它。所以我們是一個活躍的交易者。我們以某種方式進行交易。我將為您提供三個字的整體描述：我們流動、優化和交易。因此，我們商業組織的首要角色是確保我們的桶子和分子流向市場。

The second is to optimize assets, ships, market positions, market knowledge and be sure we get the most value out of our system that we possibly can. And then the third responsibility is to trade. And we do third-party training, we do what we call Quad 4 trading. On a regular basis, we make money at it, and we have very talented people in our organization, too. We also have good risk management systems to ensure that we understand what we're doing. So I wouldn't describe us as not being a trader. And I don't know if there's a definition, I think you used the word conservative.

第二是優化資產、船舶、市場地位、市場知識，並確保我們盡可能從我們的系統中獲得最大價值。第三個責任是交易。我們進行第三方培訓，進行所謂的 Quad 4 交易。我們經常從中賺錢，而且我們的組織中也有非常有才華的人。我們也擁有良好的風險管理系統，以確保我們了解我們正在做的事情。所以我不會說我們不是交易者。我不知道是否有定義，我想你用了「保守」這個詞。

Look, we're a trader, but we do it in the order that I just described and have done it for a long time on a global basis. So it's a contributor to our earnings, and we continue to look to grow that part of our business.

看，我們是一名交易員，但我們按照我剛才描述的順序進行操作，並且在全球範圍內已經這樣做了很長時間。因此，它對我們的收入做出了貢獻，我們將繼續尋求發展這部分業務。

The only thing I would add, Paul, to Mike's answer is shareholders and investors don't own Chevron or like companies for trading earnings. They tend to be volatile. I think the multiples on trading earnings historically have been very low. In fact, most of the large trading houses are private companies. So Mike described exactly what our strategy is. It works within the framework of a resource company and a refining and petrochemicals company where investors are owning us for safely and reliably delivering energy having the commodity price exposure. And yes, if we can enhance that with trading results, that's great, but we're not going to lead with trading.

保羅，對於麥克的回答，我唯一要補充的是，股東和投資者並不擁有雪佛龍或喜歡公司的交易收益。它們往往不穩定。我認為歷史上交易收益的倍數非常低。事實上，大多數大型貿易公司都是私人公司。麥克準確地描述了我們的策略是什麼。它在一家資源公司和一家煉油和石化公司的框架內運作，投資者擁有我們，以安全可靠地交付具有商品價格風險的能源。是的，如果我們可以透過交易結果來增強這一點，那就太好了，但我們不會以交易為主導。

This one is just a clarification question on something you said about the Permian because I think it's important. In the NOJV section, because you stack royalties with the NOJV acreage, your growth rate in the NOJV portion actually exceeds the growth rate of your partners as they report it. Is that -- that's the correct interpretation, right? That's what we're trying to communicate?

這只是對你所說的有關二疊紀的事情的澄清問題，因為我認為這很重要。在 NOJV 部分，由於您將特許權使用費與 NOJV 面積疊加，因此您在 NOJV 部分的成長率實際上超過了合作夥伴報告的成長率。這是——這是正確的解釋，對吧？這就是我們想要溝通的？

Yes. I mean our -- because we not only get our working interest production out of that, but because we also have -- and we have relatively high working interest in most of our -- these ventures. So it's not dissimilar to the working interest of the operator in most cases. But then we also have royalty advantage and we -- and we account for that or we report that to you through that NOJV. What we describe as royalty barrels are pure royalty.

是的。我的意思是我們的——因為我們不僅從中獲得了我們的工作利益，而且因為我們還擁有——而且我們在大多數——這些企業中擁有相對較高的工作利益。因此，在大多數情況下，這與操作員的工作利益沒有什麼不同。但我們也有特許權使用費優勢，我們會考慮這一點，或者我們透過 NOJV 向您報告這一點。我們所說的版稅桶是純粹的版稅。

We've got no capital. We've got no working interest. We're just collecting royalty as the landowner. But you're correct in your interpretation there, Sam. That is why our NOJV is growing a little faster than our co-op production for the same levels of activity.

我們沒有資本。我們沒有工作興趣。我們只是作為土地所有者收取版稅。但你的解釋是正確的，山姆。這就是為什麼在相同的活動水平下，我們的 NOJV 的成長速度比我們的合作社生產要快一些。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up. This is on capital allocation and I understood that you have the range out there in the buyback, but the range is pretty substantial, and there is a decision to make right now about where to be within the range, about whether to preserve cash for an opportunity that might come in the downturn, if that's what looks like it's on the horizon or whether to stay at the top end because we're in sort of a market equilibrium in the commodity environment, and you feel good about the pace.

好的。然後作為後續行動。這是關於資本配置的問題，我知道回購有一定的範圍，但範圍相當大，現在需要決定在該範圍內的哪個位置，是否保留現金用於回購經濟低迷時期可能出現的機會，如果這看起來即將到來，或者是否保持在高端，因為我們在大宗商品環境中處於某種市場均衡狀態，並且您對步伐感到滿意。

And I'm not asking you to predict the future, but it would be great to sort of hear your thoughts directionally about the value of kind of preserving cash on the balance sheet for any day or maintaining a faster pace?

我並不是要求您預測未來，但如果能夠直接聽到您對在資產負債表上保留現金或保持更快節奏的價值的想法，那就太好了？

Yes, I'm going to invite Pierre to say a couple of words. But Sam, we tried to lay out a couple of cases in Investor Day that showed you in 2 different price environments what our capacity was to operate and be within the range and with a low breakeven to cover our CapEx and dividend with a lot of surplus cash already on the balance sheet and then with the very low net debt -- low debt levels that we have. We've got plenty of capacity. Pierre, maybe you can just give a thumbnail recap on the scenarios to booking them for Sam.

是的，我要邀請皮埃爾說幾句話。但山姆，我們試圖在投資者日列出幾個案例，向您展示在兩種不同的價格環境下我們的營運能力，並在一定範圍內，以較低的盈虧平衡來覆蓋我們的資本支出和股息，並有大量盈餘現金已經在資產負債表上，然後淨債務非常低——我們的債務水平很低。我們有足夠的能力。皮埃爾，也許你可以簡單回顧一下場景，以便為山姆預訂。

Yes. In our Investor Day, we looked at the high-case and low-case scenarios and our guidance right now is towards the high end. And let me just first be clear that we don't intend to hold $15-plus billion of cash on our balance sheet. We can run the company at $5 billion, and this is surplus cash. And this is cash that is temporarily on the balance sheet. It will be redistributed and redeployed to shareholders over time depending on the scenario and the price of both scenarios had us working down that surplus cash because it's economically inefficient for us hold it, and it's not our cash, it's our shareholders' cash.

是的。在投資者日，我們研究了高情景和低情境情景，我們現在的指導是面向高端。首先我要先明確的是，我們不打算在資產負債表上持有超過 15 億美元的現金。我們可以用 50 億美元來經營公司，這是剩餘現金。這是暫時出現在資產負債表上的現金。隨著時間的推移，它將根據情況重新分配和重新部署給股東，這兩種情況的價格都讓我們消耗掉多餘的現金，因為持有它在經濟上效率低下，而且這不是我們的現金，而是我們股東的現金。

We want to return it through the cycle in a steady way, not pro-cyclically. So that's why it's accumulating. We've paid off all our debt economically, but it's a timing effect. And we showed certainly in the low-side case, which averaged about a $60 Brent that we could continue buybacks near the low end of the range, and we can do that on by taking surplus cash down. And then also using some of our excess debt capacity because we're well below our 20% to 25% net debt ratio. So we'd want to work towards that low end of that guidance range of 20%, again, to get to a more efficient capital structure.

我們希望以穩定的方式而不是順週期的方式讓其回歸週期。這就是它不斷累積的原因。我們已經在經濟上還清了所有債務，但這是時間效應。我們確實在低端情況下（布蘭特原油平均價格約為 60 美元）表明我們可以繼續在該範圍的低端附近進行回購，並且我們可以透過減少剩餘現金來做到這一點。然後也利用我們的一些過剩債務能力，因為我們遠低於 20% 至 25% 的淨債務比率。因此，我們希望再次努力實現 20% 指導範圍的低端，以實現更有效率的資本結構。

In terms of keeping cash for rainy or strong -- we're always going to maintain a strong balance sheet. We've been in this business for decades and decades. We know that good times don't last. We know that prices are cyclical. We want to manage that volatility for our shareholders. So our shareholders don't have to worry about the commodity price because they're going to get the dividend that Mike talked about that's been growing for 36 consecutive years. That's grown 6% annually for 15 years. They're going to get that. And then through a cycle, as we approach a cycle, and we're looking at the cycle coming up here, additional cash in a steady way, right now, about 5% of our shares outstanding through the form of a buyback.

就保留現金以備不時之需而言，我們始終會維持強勁的資產負債表。我們從事這個行業已經有幾十年了。我們知道好時光不會長久。我們知道價格是有週期性的。我們希望為股東管理這種波動性。因此，我們的股東不必擔心商品價格，因為他們將獲得麥克所說的連續 36 年增長的股息。 15 年來每年增長 6%。他們會明白的。然後通過一個週期，當我們接近一個週期時，我們正在關注即將到來的周期，以穩定的方式增加現金，目前，我們約 5% 的流通股通過回購的形式進行。

And so that's how we're planning to manage the volatility for our shareholders. And we've talked about if M&A is implied in your question that we shown that we tend to use equity for M&A because there is -- commodity prices are volatile. It creates a more stable deal structure. So our balance sheet will always be strong enough to enable us to not only manage commodity prices, but also make sure we're positioned to do what we need to do.

這就是我們計劃為股東管理波動性的方式。我們已經討論過您的問題是否暗示了併購，我們表明我們傾向於使用股權進行併購，因為大宗商品價格波動很大。它創建了更穩定的交易結構。因此，我們的資產負債表將始終足夠強大，使我們不僅能夠管理大宗商品價格，而且還能確保我們有能力做我們需要做的事情。

And I don't need to remind you that we were the first to do a transaction coming out of COVID when we announced the acquisition of Noble Energy, and then we followed a year or so later and acquired Renewable Energy Group. Thanks, Sam.

我不需要提醒你，當我們宣布收購 Noble Energy 時，我們是第一個因新冠疫情而進行交易的公司，然後我們在大約一年後收購了 Renewable Energy Group。謝謝，山姆。

We'll take our next question from John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾提出的下一個問題。

So can you talk about the general demand trends you're seeing within your system? Are you starting to see any signs of weakness on the demand side? And if the answer is no, just curious on your views on what's happened to spot refining margins globally, and what seems like still a relatively tight market.

那麼您能談談您在系統中看到的整體需求趨勢嗎？您是否開始看到需求方面出現疲軟的跡象？如果答案是否定的，只是想知道您對全球煉油利潤狀況的看法，以及市場似乎仍然相對緊張。

Yes. So John, a couple of thoughts, I guess. I'll just go by the product commodities. I mean gasoline demand is essentially back to pre-pandemic levels. globally. Obviously, there are regional variations in this. We're sitting in California here on this end of the call. We've had a very wet winter. And so the first quarter reflects an unusually wet season on the West Coast.

是的。約翰，我想有一些想法。我將只討論產品商品。我的意思是汽油需求基本上回到了大流行前的水平。全球。顯然，這存在地區差異。電話結束時我們正坐在加州。我們度過了一個非常潮濕的冬天。因此，第一季反映出西海岸異常潮濕的季節。

In Asia, we see demand coming back, right, as economies continue to open up and mobility has increased, et cetera. But broadly speaking, gasoline flat. Diesel had kind of carried the complex through COVID and global demand has been at pre-pandemic levels for a while now. First quarter demand in '23 is a touch lower than it was in first quarter of '22. Could be an indicator of the beginning of some economic slowdown, but it's certainly, I think, premature to conclude that. But diesel is maybe not leading the parade quite as strongly as it had been for the last couple of years.

在亞洲，隨著經濟持續開放和流動性增加等，我們看到需求回升。但整體來說，汽油持平。柴油引擎在某種程度上支撐了新冠疫情的發展，全球需求在一段時間內一直處於大流行前的水平。 23 年第一季的需求略低於 22 年第一季的需求。可能是經濟開始放緩的一個指標，但我認為現在下結論還為時過早。但柴油車的領先地位可能不如過去幾年強勁。

Jet demand continues to grow. And it's still below kind of prepandemic levels. China is the place, obviously, everybody has been paying attention to. Domestic travel up to nearly 90% of pre-COVID. Flights in and out of the country still well below that. And we see flights being scheduled. You see indicators that suggest travel will grow. You listen to the airlines and that certainly seems to be what they anticipate, but that's in progress. So that's a kind of a quick look across the product slate. I think margins reflect a couple of things.

噴射機的需求持續成長。而且仍低於疫情前的水平。顯然，中國是每個人都在關注的地方。新冠疫情爆發前，國內旅行佔了近 90%。進出該國的航班仍遠低於此水準。我們看到航班正在安排中。您將看到表明旅行將會成長的指標。你聽聽航空公司的說法，這似乎確實是他們所期望的，但這正在進行中。這是對產品清單的一種快速瀏覽。我認為利潤率反映了幾件事。

One, a year ago, we were in a period of recovering economies and we're coming out of a period of rationalizing refining capacity around the world. And you can go to any part of the world and find refineries that had shut down that perhaps people expected would close one day, but it happened relatively quickly. And at the same time, you saw big growth projects that had been deferred because of the uncertainty relative to COVID. A year later here, you don't see refineries closing at the same rate. We've seen refinery startups in the Middle East.

一年前，我們正處於經濟復甦時期，正走出全球煉油能力合理化時期。你可以去世界任何地方，找到已經關閉的煉油廠，也許人們預計有一天會關閉，但它發生得相對較快。同時，您看到一些大型成長項目因新冠疫情的不確定性而被推遲。一年後，你不會看到煉油廠以相同的速度關閉。我們在中東看到了煉油廠新創企業。

We've seen projects here in the U.S. and in Asia as well. So refining capacity coming into the system demand has moderated a little bit. Margins have come down. They're still stronger than historic margins if you look out over a longer period of time, but trending back down towards mid-cycle. Pretty strong in the U.S., maybe under a little more pressure in Asia, but you got to think about the feedstocks in Asia, where they're coming from, how they're priced and how those markets are working. So I don't see any big warning signs flashing, but certainly, we're paying close attention to it.

我們在美國和亞洲也看到過項目。因此，進入系統的煉油能力需求放緩。利潤率已經下降。如果你觀察較長一段時間，它們仍然強於歷史利潤率，但在周期中期有回落的趨勢。美國市場相當強勁，亞洲的壓力可能更大一些，但你必須考慮亞洲的原料、它們的來源、定價方式以及這些市場的運作方式。所以我沒有看到任何重大警告信號閃爍，但當然，我們正在密切關注它。

And then maybe sticking with the downstream, and you mentioned California. Can you just talk about the new regulations in California around the potential for excess profit penalties, not sure if that's exactly how to refer to it. But how much does that impact how you think about refining in California and your position in California and maybe the expected impacts on the broader market there?

然後也許會堅持下游，你提到了加州。您能否談談加州有關超額利潤處罰可能性的新規定，不確定這是否準確地提及它。但這對您對加州煉油的看法以及您在加州的地位以及對那裡更廣泛市場的預期影響有多大影響？

Yes. I'll talk about it, sure. So the bottom line is this is now into a rule-making process. There's no impact right now and it's into kind of a bureaucratic phase. I think implementation is likely to take quite a while, and it's hard to say exactly how it plays out. What started as an effort to create a windfall profits tax was unsuccessful because you need 2/3 of a vote in the legislature for new tax in California. That then modified into some other forms and ended up moving into the Energy Commission, where there will be a group established that will gather a lot of data and try to assess the profitability of industry against some standard, which I think is yet to be fully articulated.

是的。我當然會談論它。所以最重要的是，現在已經進入規則制定過程。現在沒有影響，已經進入了官僚階段。我認為實施可能需要相當長的時間，而且很難確切地說出具體效果如何。最初創建暴利稅的努力並不成功，因為加州的新稅需要立法機關 2/3 的投票。然後修改為其他一些形式，最終進入能源委員會，在那裡將成立一個小組，收集大量數據，並嘗試根據某些標準評估工業的盈利能力，我認為這些標準尚未完全確定。

So this is going to take some time. It could potentially result in some sort of a fine or a penalty for margins or profits above a level, but I can't tell you how it's going to play out because it's -- there's a lot of work to be done there. I guess the things that I would say are pretty predictable are maybe 2. One, there are substantial new reporting requirements, and there's a lot of data we're going to have to produce. We're happy to do that. We'll work closely with the Energy Commission to make sure we get them the information that they're requesting. And then the second is, I don't think this does anything to encourage investment or new supply, which is really what's needed in a marketplace commodity markets to bring prices down on average over time.

所以這需要一些時間。這可能會導致某種罰款或對高於一定水平的利潤或利潤的處罰，但我無法告訴你它將如何發揮作用，因為那裡還有很多工作要做。我想我想說的非常可預測的事情可能是 2。我們很高興這樣做。我們將與能源委員會密切合作，確保我們獲得他們所要求的資訊。第二個問題是，我認為這對鼓勵投資或新供應沒有任何作用，而這確實是市場商品市場所需要的，以隨著時間的推移降低平均價格。

In fact, I think it runs the risk of doing the opposite of discouraging investment, of decreasing supply over time, which if demand does not moderate, will tend to exacerbate volatility and over time probably result in, on average, higher levels of price. So that's about all I know about it at this point, and we'll watch it as it unfolds.

事實上，我認為它存在著與抑制投資相反的風險，即隨著時間的推移減少供應，如果需求不放緩，往往會加劇波動性，隨著時間的推移，平均而言可能會導致更高的價格水平。這就是我目前所知道的全部內容，我們將關注它的進展。

We'll take our next question from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們將回答美國銀行 Doug Leggate 提出的下一個問題。

This is Kalei on for Doug. The first one is on the new Permian disclosure. So you guys are forecasting flat royalty volumes. So I'm wondering, as that becomes a smaller part of the production mix, how is the cash margin from that asset affected going forward?

這是卡雷 (Kalei) 替道格 (Doug) 發言。第一個是關於新的二疊紀披露。所以你們預測特許權使用費數量持平。所以我想知道，隨著這成為生產組合的一小部分，該資產的現金利潤率未來會受到怎樣的影響？

Well, royalty barrels have essentially an infinite margin. And so I think if you and Doug can do the math as it's a slightly lower percentage than that will be a part offset, but there's lots of other drivers that we're doing to enhance margins. And we've shown return on capital employed near 30% at $60 Brent equivalent for our premium. So it's a high-return low-carbon asset and the royalty barrels, as you know, come with virtually no cost, and that's part of the advantage that we have.

好吧，特許權使用費本質上有無限的利潤。因此，我認為如果你和道格可以計算一下，因為它的百分比略低於該百分比，這將是部分抵消，但我們正在採取許多其他驅動因素來提高利潤率。我們的已用資本回報率接近 30%，相當於我們的溢價 60 美元布蘭特原油。因此，這是一種高回報的低碳資產，而且如您所知，特許權使用費幾乎沒有任何成本，這是我們擁有的優勢的一部分。

Understood. I appreciate that, Pierre. My second question goes to TCO. Just wondering if we can get an update on timing of first oil from the new expansion projects and the dividend magnitude for 2023.

明白了。我很感激，皮埃爾。我的第二個問題涉及 TCO。只是想知道我們是否可以獲得有關新擴建項目的第一批石油的時間以及 2023 年股息規模的最新資訊。

Yes. So the expansion project, as I said, there's a lot of turnarounds in activity, both this year and next year. And at our Investor Day, we laid out a bar chart that gave you an idea on production. The real I think the time, as I said earlier, when you're going to see the production growth will manifest itself in 2024 because the next 2 years, we've got a lot of these turnarounds, ties-ins, et cetera, in place. So Pierre, you can guide on dividends.

是的。因此，正如我所說，擴建計畫今年和明年的活動都有很多轉變。在投資者日，我們製作了一個長條圖，讓您對生產有一個了解。正如我之前所說，我認為真正的產量成長將在 2024 年顯現出來，因為未來 2 年，我們將經歷很多這樣的轉變、合作等等，就位。皮埃爾，你可以就股息提供指導。

No change in our affiliate dividend guidance that we shared on the last call of $5 billion to $6 billion for the full year. That includes Tengiz and our other affiliates. We expect, like last year, a dividend in the second quarter that will be modest and then a larger dividend in the fourth quarter. TCO continues to hold more cash on its balance sheet to manage through both completing uncertainty around the project and around transport alternatives. But that cash will come back over time. It's been performing very well. But we don't give specifics on that by year. It's embedded in our overall affiliate dividend guidance.

我們在上次電話會議上分享的全年 50 億至 60 億美元的聯盟股利指引沒有改變。其中包括 Tengiz 和我們的其他附屬公司。與去年一樣，我們預計第二季的股息將適度，然後第四季的股息將增加。 TCO 繼續在其資產負債表上持有更多現金，以應對項目和運輸替代方案的不確定性。但隨著時間的推移，這些現金會回來。它的表現一直都非常好。但我們不會按年份提供具體資訊。它已納入我們的整體聯盟股利指導中。

I appreciate that there's still some turnarounds to work through. But as the production hit a steady state, what do you expect the dividend cadence to look like?

我很高興仍然有一些轉變需要解決。但隨著產量達到穩定狀態，您預期股息節奏會是什麼樣子？

So as I said, last year, there was in 2 quarters. This year, again, it will be second quarter and fourth quarter, and we'll just -- it's up to the TCO Board of Directors to make dividend decisions going forward.

正如我所說，去年有兩個季度。今年，同樣是第二季和第四季度，我們將由 TCO 董事會來做出未來的股利決定。

Our next question comes from Josh Silverstein with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的喬許·西爾弗斯坦。

Just curious about the pace of rig activity in the Permian. You guys are adding one per quarter this year (inaudible) to be to support growth next year. I'm just curious, as you continue looking forward into next year, do you need to add 4 more rigs next year to keep kind of that 10% growth pace? Is it less because you're getting more efficient in the Delaware production? I'm just curious how you're thinking about the step-up in activity going forward.

只是對二疊紀鑽井活動的節奏感到好奇。你們今年每季增加一個（聽不清楚），以支持明年的成長。我只是好奇，當您繼續展望明年時，明年是否需要再增加 4 台鑽孔機才能保持 10% 的成長速度？減少是因為德拉瓦州的生產效率提高了嗎？我只是好奇你如何看待未來活動的升級。

Yes. I mean we've pulled rigs down dramatically in 2020, and we didn't want to surge back with everything all at once. And so we entered this year with 10. We expect to exit this year with 14 co-op rigs running. And I think consistent with the longer-term production profile that we've outlined, we got a big base business that does have decline underneath it. And so you're going to expect us to add some additional rigs as we move into '24.

是的。我的意思是，我們在 2020 年大幅削減了鑽機數量，我們不想一次全部恢復。今年我們進入時有 10 台。 我們預計今年退出時有 14 台正在運行的合作鑽機。我認為，與我們概述的長期生產概況一致，我們擁有龐大的基礎業務，但背後確實出現了下滑。因此，當我們進入 24 年時，您會期望我們添加一些額外的鑽孔機。

Got it. And I know there's a lot of activity stepping up across the rest of the kind of Lower 48, Haynesville, DJ. They're a little bit more on the gassier side. I'm curious if you guys are pulling back any activity because they're a little bit more gas prone in this price environment.

知道了。我知道，Lower 48、Haynesville、DJ 的其他地區正在進行大量活動。它們更偏向氣體的一面。我很好奇你們是否會取消任何活動，因為在這種價格環境下他們更容易消耗汽油。

We've -- we're adding a rig in the Haynesville. We talked about that for a number of years building up to that activity. Gas prices are going to be volatile. And frankly, we need to get developing that resource. We have some offset operators. And so if we don't get after it, it's the time for us to do that. The DJ still has a heavy liquids component, no change in our plans. In fact, the DJ and Argentina are a couple of other areas where we expect production in the second half of the year to be higher where we're increasing a little bit of activity. And again, all of that is within our existing CapEx budget.

我們正在海恩斯維爾添加一個鑽孔機。為了進行這項活動，我們已經討論了很多年。天然氣價格將會波動。坦白說，我們需要開發該資源。我們有一些偏移運算符。因此，如果我們不去追求它，現在就是我們這樣做的時候了。 DJ 仍然有大量液體成分，我們的計劃沒有改變。事實上，DJ 和阿根廷是我們預計下半年產量會更高的其他幾個地區，我們正在增加一些活動。再說一遍，所有這些都在我們現有的資本支出預算範圍內。

We'll go next to Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

接下來我們將與派珀·桑德勒 (Piper Sandler) 一起前往瑞安·托德 (Ryan Todd)。

Maybe first off, just a quick follow-up on the comments earlier on and the question on trading, in the international downstream, your earnings were particularly strong this quarter. And I think in the slides there, there's a $270 million other bar, positive other bar in chart there. Is that primarily trading? And anything to read on that going forward? Is that something that likely reverses or maybe some clarity there?

也許首先，快速跟進先前的評論和交易問題，在國際下游，你們本季的收益特別強勁。我認為在幻燈片中，還有一個 2.7 億美元的其他長條圖，圖表中還有一個積極的其他長條圖。主要是交易嗎？未來有什麼值得讀的嗎？這是否可能會逆轉或可能有些清晰？

You're right. We referred to it. I would not say it's primarily. It's a lot of factors and we pointed out to that. It's consistent with how Mike described our trading business. And as all trading businesses are, it can be variable in future quarters. So it's just one of many factors. It's not primarily, but we wanted to cite it as one of the elements in that other variance.

你說得對。我們提到過。我不會說這是主要的。這有很多因素，我們指出了這一點。這與麥克對我們貿易業務的描述是一致的。與所有貿易業務一樣，未來幾個季度的情況可能會發生變化。所以這只是眾多因素之一。它不是主要的，但我們想將其引用為其他差異中的元素之一。

And then maybe on the Permian, if you look back at the Permian, you've also -- you obviously talked and at the Analyst Day, you talked about a variety of the shifts in the 2023 development plan versus 2022. I think -- and you highlighted some more here today. I think we appreciate some of the near-term impacts. Can you talk at all to what some of the longer-term implications are of the shift to more single-bench development adjustments to pacing more shift towards New Mexico, et cetera. Does it have any impact on -- like does the move to increased single-bench development have any impact on the productivity or recovery of other zones in the area?

然後也許在二疊紀盆地，如果你回顧二疊紀盆地，你顯然也談到了，在分析師日，你談到了 2023 年開發計劃與 2022 年相比的各種變化。在這裡強調了更多內容。我認為我們了解一些近期影響。您能談談轉向更多單板凳開發調整以加快向新墨西哥州等地區的轉變的一些長期影響嗎？它是否有任何影響——例如增加單台開發的舉措對該地區其他區域的生產力或恢復有任何影響嗎？

Does it change at all how you think about service infrastructure and logistics, how you think about resource depth in different parts of the portfolio over the long term?

從長遠來看，這是否會改變您對服務基礎設施和物流的看法，以及您對投資組合不同部分的資源深度的看法？

Yes, Ryan, I would say not really. We've always been return seeking. And so this is all about optimizing the return we can get out of this asset over the long haul. We've tried to be thoughtful about surface infrastructure. We've tried to be thoughtful about drilling to keep surface infrastructure fully utilized, not over building it for peaks and then leaving it underutilized for long periods of time.

是的，瑞安，我想說不是。我們一直在尋求回報。因此，這一切都是為了優化我們從長期來看可以從該資產中獲得的回報。我們試圖對地面基礎設施進行深思熟慮。我們在鑽探方面嘗試深思熟慮，以保持地面基礎設施充分利用，而不是在高峰時過度建設，然後使其長期未充分利用。

And as we're continuing to learn, the fundamental principles about optimizing return on investment continue to drive all of this activity. So as we learn more about benches, about communication, about productivity, as technology changes recovery factors, we will continue to apply all of those learnings. But the real objective remains the same. It's not volume, it's value and returns.

隨著我們不斷學習，優化投資回報的基本原則將繼續推動所有這些活動。因此，當我們更多地了解長凳、溝通、生產力時，隨著技術改變恢復因素，我們將繼續應用所有這些知識。但真正的目標仍然是一樣的。重要的不是數量，而是價值和回報。

Ryan, and just as a reminder, the move to more single bench is in the Delaware Basin, right? Midland Basin 3/4 is multi-bench development.

瑞安，提醒一下，轉向更多單板凳是在特拉華盆地，對吧？ Midland Basin 3/4 是多台開發案。

We'll take our next question from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Jason Gabelman 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

Sorry to go back to the Permian, but I'm going to ask another. I was wondering and I appreciate all the disclosures. They're really helpful. But in terms of the non-op component of production, does the proportion stay relatively stable through your forecast period? I think you gave a forecast out to 2027 at the Analyst Day. Does the non-op proportion stay the same? Or do you have more operational barrels between now and '27?

很抱歉回到二疊紀，但我要問另一個。我很想知道並且感謝所有的披露。他們真的很有幫助。但就生產的非操作部分而言，在您的預測期內，該比例是否保持相對穩定？我認為您在分析師日上對 2027 年做出了預測。非手術比例不變嗎？或者從現在到 27 年你們還有更多可操作的桶子嗎？

It stays relatively similar, I would say, Jason. We can provide further insights on that as well. There's not a big shift. We're growing activity. As I mentioned earlier, we're adding rigs and you got a pretty big base you're adding in on top of. So those percentages don't move a lot.

我想說，傑森，它仍然相對相似。我們也可以對此提供進一步的見解。沒有什麼大的轉變。我們正在增加活動。正如我之前提到的，我們正在添加裝備，並且您要在其上添加一個相當大的基礎。所以這些百分比變化不大。

All right. That's helpful. And then just one accounting question. Depreciation fell decently quarter-over-quarter in upstream. What was that related to?

好的。這很有幫助。然後只有一個會計問題。上游貶值較上季大幅下降。那與什麼有關？

Are you looking at it excluding special items? Or...

您是否正在考慮排除特殊項目？或者...

Yes. If I look at the quarter-over-quarter Slide 7, upstream DD&A was positive $345 million.

是的。如果我看一下投影片 7 的季度環比，上游 DD&A 為正 3.45 億美元。

Yes, why don't you follow up with Jake? That could be tied to some exploration activity.

是的，為什麼不跟進傑克呢？這可能與一些勘探活動有關。

We'll take our next question from Biraj Borkhataria with Royal Bank of Canada.

我們將回答加拿大皇家銀行 Biraj Borkhataria 提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to ask about Namibia. You recently farmed in a few months ago. Could you just walk me through plans for the next 12 months or so what you've got penciled in? And then I've got a follow-up on something else.

我想問一下納米比亞的情況。幾個月前，您剛務農。您能否向我介紹一下您已製定的未來 12 個月左右的計劃？然後我對其他事情進行了跟進。

Sure. So we've completed seismic acquisition in Namibia at the end of February, and that's being processed right now. And so I can't really comment any further on that. We certainly are mindful of others who have had certain exploration success in the region, which is encouraging, but we need to do the work on that and then determine what the next steps are, which can include drilling exploration wells. So stay tuned on that as we got more information, we'll share it with you, Raj.

當然。所以我們已經在二月底完成了納米比亞的地震採集，現在正在處理中。所以我無法對此進一步發表評論。我們當然會注意到其他人在該地區取得了一定的勘探成功，這是令人鼓舞的，但我們需要在這方面開展工作，然後確定下一步的步驟，其中可能包括鑽探井。因此，請繼續關注，當我們獲得更多資訊時，我們將與您分享，Raj。

Okay. And then just on a different topic, cost inflation because more and more, you hear some of the service providers talking about improving pricing and so on. So could you just comment on your latest thoughts and what you're seeing on the cost inflation side outside of the Lower 48?

好的。然後是另一個不同的話題，成本通膨，因為越來越多的服務提供者在談論提高定價等等。那麼您能否評論一下您的最新想法以及您對 48 州以外的成本通膨方面的看法？

Sure. So really no change to our mid-single-digit inflation guidance in our current year capital spending. As you note, in the Lower 48, there are some areas where we planned for higher inflation and we're seeing that. I'll remind you that a lot of what we do in our procurement activities are longer-term contracts that are either fixed priced or index-based.

當然。因此，我們今年資本支出的中個位數通膨指引實際上沒有變化。正如您所指出的，在 48 個州以下地區，我們計劃在某些地區實現更高的通貨膨脹，而且我們也看到了這一點。我要提醒您的是，我們在採購活動中所做的許多工作都是長期合同，要么是固定價格，要么是基於指數的。

We've got detailed cost models to challenge price increases. We commit volumes to certain things over longer periods of time to try to create a win-win between us and our suppliers. And so we've not seen some of the cost push-through that you would see if you were buying services or commodities inputs on a spot basis or then current basis because we manage that activity differently.

我們有詳細的成本模型來挑戰價格上漲。我們承諾在較長時間內對某些事情進行大量投入，以努力在我們和供應商之間創造雙贏。因此，如果您在現貨或當前基礎上購買服務或商品投入，我們並沒有看到一些成本推延，因為我們以不同的方式管理該活動。

For instance, on offshore rigs, we're fully contracted for this year. We came into the year with 3 rigs working in the Gulf of Mexico. They're generally below current market rates. And so I think we're managing this well. The one thing I would say is given these kind of index-based contracts, there are periodic reviews where we will reset based on market indicators.

例如，在海上鑽井平台上，我們今年已經簽訂了全部合約。今年伊始，我們有 3 台鑽井平台在墨西哥灣作業。它們通常低於當前的市場價格。所以我認為我們處理得很好。我要說的一件事是，鑑於這些基於指數的合約，我們會定期進行審查，我們將根據市場指標進行重置。

And so in the second quarter in certain parts of our business, we'll be going through this with some of our partners, and we'll see some resets on there that will probably reflect a little bit of the inflation that I referred to earlier that's already built into our plans. But I think we're managing all that within the range that is embedded in the guidance we've given you.

因此，在第二季度，在我們業務的某些部分，我們將與一些合作夥伴一起解決這個問題，我們將看到一些重置，這可能會反映我之前提到的一點通貨膨脹這已經納入我們的計劃中。但我認為我們正在我們向您提供的指導中所包含的範圍內管理所有這些內容。

We'll take our last question from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

我們將回答 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann 提出的最後一個問題。

This is Patrick (inaudible) on behalf of Neal Dingmann. For my question, it's with respect to Venezuelan exports. I know previously, you made mentioned of really no further capital investments in Venezuela. What we're curious to know is, is there a maximum threshold of exports and sales that you're anticipating out of Venezuela?

我是派崔克（聽不清楚），代表尼爾丁曼。我的問題是關於委內瑞拉的出口。我知道您之前提到在委內瑞拉確實沒有進一步的資本投資。我們想知道的是，您預計從委內瑞拉出口和銷售是否有最高門檻？

Is there a maximum -- I mean, it's limited by our position there and the entities that we're involved in and what our portion of that production that we're entitled to market is. We're currently seeing about 100,000 barrels a day of production up from about 50,000 when the license terms changed. That can go up further this year, maybe another 50% if everything goes well. The crude comes to the U.S., and we're finding a market for the crude. And yes, it's a 6-month license from OPEC, and we have to bear that in mind. So that's why we are proceeding, as you said, which is we've got some past receivables that are being paid from some of these proceeds and there's a lot of relatively straightforward workover and other activity that can help bring production up at -- without major capital commitments.

是否有上限——我的意思是，它受到我們在那裡的地位、我們參與的實體以及我們有權銷售的產品部分的限制。目前，授權條款變更時的日產量約為 50,000 桶，目前產量約為 100,000 桶。今年這個數字可能會進一步上升，如果一切順利的話，可能會再上升 50%。原油運往美國，我們正在為原油尋找市場。是的，這是 OPEC 頒發的為期 6 個月的許可證，我們必須牢記這一點。因此，正如您所說，這就是我們正在進行的原因，即我們已經從其中一些收益中支付了一些過去的應收帳款，並且有很多相對簡單的修井和其他活動可以幫助提高產量，而無需主要資本承諾。

And so that's the current model. We'll see how things unfold and hopefully pointed in a good direction, but it's been a bit of an up and down situation, and we have to -- we just have to take this one step at a time.

這就是當前的模型。我們將看看事情如何發展，並希望指向一個好的方向，但情況有點起起落落，我們必須——我們只需要一次邁出一步。

Good stuff there. I guess just as a follow-up, would there be -- are you exploring -- that 6-month term, are you looking to extend that at all? Or is it too early to be negotiated?

那裡有好東西。我想作為後續行動，您是否正在探索 6 個月的期限，您是否希望延長該期限？還是現在談判還太早？

That's a decision made by the U.S. Government. It's not really a negotiation. It's their decision, and it's a policy matter. We're asked for input and so we provide input on these things. But for the last several years, these things have had relatively short time lines associated with them. And so we're in full compliance with all the conditions of the sanctions and intend to stay that way. And we'll just see how the policy making turns out.

這是美國政府做出的決定。這並不是真正的談判。這是他們的決定，也是政策問題。我們被要求提供意見，因此我們就這些事情提供意見。但在過去的幾年裡，這些事情的時間線相對較短。因此，我們完全遵守制裁的所有條件，並打算保持這種狀態。我們只會看看政策制定的結果如何。

This is Pierre. I'm going to go back to Jason's question. So yes, lower depreciation is really 3 drivers. Some of it was the absence of some abandonment accruals that were in the fourth quarter. So you can view those as sort of nonrecurring. And then some of it is due to new rates. So each year, we revised our depreciation rates based on additions to proved reserves, and those rates are a little bit lower.

這是皮埃爾.我要回到傑森的問題。所以，是的，較低的折舊確實有 3 個驅動因素。其中一些原因是第四季沒有出現一些應計放棄的情況。所以你可以將這些視為一次性的。其中一些是由於新的利率。因此，每年，我們都會根據探明儲量的增加來修改折舊率，而這些折舊率會稍微低一些。

And then, of course, first quarter production was a little bit lower than fourth quarter production. So lower volumes also contributed to that lower depreciation.

當然，第一季的產量略低於第四季的產量。因此，銷量下降也導致了折舊率下降。

I would like to thank everyone for your time today. We appreciate your interest in Chevron and your participation on today's call. Please stay safe and healthy. Katie, back to you.

我要感謝大家今天抽出寶貴的時間。我們感謝您對雪佛龍的關注並參與今天的電話會議。請保持安全和健康。凱蒂，回到你身邊。

Thank you. This concludes Chevron's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。雪佛龍 2023 年第一季財報電話會議至此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。