雪佛龍 (CVX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

Welcome to Chevron's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加雪佛龍 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference call over to the Head of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Jake Spiering, please go ahead.

現在，我將電話會議轉交給雪佛龍公司投資者關係主管傑克·斯皮林先生，請開始。

Thank you, Katie, and welcome to Chevron's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast.

謝謝你，凱蒂，歡迎參加雪佛龍 2024 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。

I'm Jake Spiering, Head of Investor Relations.

我是投資者關係主管傑克‧斯皮林 (Jake Spiering)。

Our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth; and CFO, Eimear Bonner, are on the call with me today.

我們的董事長兼執行長 Mike Wirth；和財務長 Eimear Bonner 今天和我一起參加了電話會議。

We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron's website.

我們將參考雪佛龍網站上的幻燈片和準備好的演講。

Before we begin, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，請注意本簡報包含估計、預測和其他前瞻性陳述。

A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to this presentation.

非公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表可在本簡報的附錄中找到。

Please review the cautionary statement and additional information presented on Slide 2.

請查看投影片 2 上顯示的警告聲明和其他資訊。

Now I will turn it over to Mike.

現在我將把話題交給麥克。

Thanks, Jake, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today.

謝謝，傑克，也謝謝大家今天的參與。

Chevron delivered another year of strong results in 2024.

雪佛龍在 2024 年又取得了強勁的業績。

We achieved record production, both globally and in the United States, and reached key milestones that are expected to underpin years of future cash flow.

我們在全球和美國都實現了創紀錄的產量，並達到了預計將支撐未來幾年現金流的關鍵里程碑。

This includes outstanding performance in the Permian, exceeding expectations with production growth of nearly 18% from last year.

其中包括二疊紀盆地的出色表現，產量較去年增長近 18%，超出預期。

Delivering key project start-ups in the Gulf of America, fully integrating PDC Energy, expanding our position in the DJ Basin, optimizing our portfolio through asset sales and swaps that maximize long-term value, completing WPMP and achieving first oil at the future growth project at TCO last week.

在美國灣啟動關鍵項目，全面整合PDC Energy，擴大我們在DJ盆地的地位，透過資產出售和互換優化我們的投資組合，實現長期價值最大化，完成WPMP並在未來成長中實現首次採油上週在TCO 開展的項目。

We also returned a record $27 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

我們也透過股利和回購向股東返還了創紀錄的270億美元現金。

Over the past 2 years, we've repurchased $30 billion and reduced our outstanding share count by 10%.

在過去的兩年裡，我們回購了 300 億美元，並將流通股數量減少了 10%。

We continue to build our new energies business and complete projects to lower the carbon intensity of our operations.

我們繼續發展我們的新能源業務並完成專案以降低我們營運的碳強度。

In 2024, we sold over 20 million barrels of bio-based diesel and advanced foundational projects in CCUS and hydrogen.

2024年，我們銷售了超過2,000萬桶生物基柴油，並在CCUS和氫氣領域推進了基礎專案。

We also completed projects designed to abate over 700,000 tons of CO2 emissions annually.

我們也完成了每年減少70多萬噸二氧化碳排放的計畫。

Now I'll turn it over to Eimear to go over the financials.

現在我將把權力交給艾米爾 (Eimear) 來討論財務問題。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Chevron reported fourth quarter earnings of $3.2 billion, or $1.84 per share.

雪佛龍公佈第四季收益為 32 億美元，即每股 1.84 美元。

Adjusted earnings were $3.6 billion, or $2.06 per share.

調整後收益為 36 億美元，即每股 2.06 美元。

Included in the quarter were special items totaling $1.1 billion related to restructuring and impairment charges.

本季包括與重組和減損費用相關的總計 11 億美元的特殊項目。

Foreign currency gains were $720 million.

外幣收益為7.2億美元。

Full year organic CapEx was aligned with our announced $16 billion budget.

全年有機資本支出與我們宣布的 160 億美元預算一致。

In organic CapEx of $530 million related mostly to lease acquisitions and new energies investments.

5.3 億美元的有機資本支出主要用於租賃收購和新能源投資。

We maintained double-digit returns with adjusted ROCE of 10.5% for the year.

我們保持了兩位數的回報率，全年調整後的 ROCE 為 10.5%。

Compared with the last quarter, adjusted earnings were $900 million lowe.

與上一季相比，調整後獲利低至9億美元。

Adjusted upstream earnings were impacted by revisions to asset retirement obligations and timing effects including year-end inventory valuation.

調整後的上游收益受到資產退役義務修訂和包括年終庫存估價在內的時間效應的影響。

Adjusted downstream earnings were lower due to softer refining and chemicals margins and timing effects.

由於煉油和化學品利潤率下降以及時間效應，調整後的下游收益較低。

Chevron's cash generation continued to position the company for long-term success while rewarding shareholders.

雪佛龍的現金創造能力繼續為公司帶來長期成功並回報股東。

In 2024, we invested capital efficiently, growing production by 7%, generated nearly $8 billion in proceeds from asset sales, to stand our long track record of dividend increases and re-purchased 5% of shares outstanding, and maintained a strong balance sheet, ending the year with a net-debt ratio of 10%.

2024 年，我們有效地投資了資本，產量增長了7%，從資產出售中獲得了近80 億美元的收益，保持了我們長期增加股息的記錄，併回購了5% 的流通股，並保持了強勁的資產負債表，年末淨負債比率為10%。

Chevron's long-standing financial priorities have created value for shareholders.

雪佛龍長期以來的財務重點為股東創造了價值。

They have guided our actions through multiple commodity and investment cycles, and we'll continue to govern how we allocate capital.

它們在多個商品和投資週期中指導了我們的行動，我們也將繼續控制我們如何分配資本。

Over the past 5 years, we've grown our dividend faster than the S&P 500, and nearly double the rate of our closest peer.

在過去的五年裡，我們的股息成長速度超過了標準普爾 500 指數，幾乎是我們最接近的同業的兩倍。

Today, we announced a 5% increase in the dividend, marking the 30th consecutive year with an annual increase to dividend payment per share.

今天，我們宣布股息增加 5%，這是連續第 30 年增加每股股息。

We're committed to capital discipline.

我們致力於資本紀律。

Only the most competitive projects in our portfolio will get funded, where assets don't compete for capital, we have a history of generating value commercially.

只有我們投資組合中最具競爭力的項目才能獲得資助，這些項目不會發生資產爭奪資本的情況，我們擁有創造商業價值的歷史。

The balance sheet is in excellent health with net debt below our historical levels.

資產負債表狀況良好，淨債務低於歷史水準。

We've repurchased shares, 17 of the last 21 years, and intend to maintain a buyback range of $10 billion to $20 billion per year depending on market conditions.

在過去的 21 年中，我們已經回購了 17 年的股票，並打算根據市場情況將回購金額維持在每年 100 億至 200 億美元之間。

Compared to our peers, we're delivering growth with less capital and returning more cash to shareholders.

與同業相比，我們以更少的資本實現成長，並向股東返還更多現金。

In the past 3 years, we've returned $75 billion in cash to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.

在過去三年裡，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 750 億美元現金。

Now I'll hand it over to Mike to cover our near-term outlook.

現在我將把話題交給麥克來介紹我們的近期展望。

Thanks, Eimear.

謝謝，Eimear。

Chevron is in a strong position today with near-term catalysts that are expected to drive the company to even better performance in 2025 and 2026.

雪佛龍目前處於強勢地位，近期的催化劑預計將推動公司在 2025 年和 2026 年取得更好的表現。

Our objective is unchanged to safely deliver higher returns and lower carbon.

我們的目標不變，那就是安全地提供更高的回報和更低的碳排放。

In the next 2 years, we plan to achieve industry-leading free cash flow growth. further strengthen our portfolio, including the expected completion of the Hess transaction in the third quarter, advanced opportunities in renewable fuels, hydrogen, CCUS and power, while maintaining cost and capital discipline.

未來2年，我們計劃實現業界領先的自由現金流成長。進一步加強我們的投資組合，包括預計在第三季完成的 Hess 交易，以及在再生燃料、氫氣、CCUS 和電力領域的先進機會，同時保持成本和資本紀律。

It's important to note that the guidance provided today excludes Hess.

值得注意的是，今天提供的指導不包括赫斯。

We continue to be very confident in Hess's position in the arbitration.

我們仍然對赫斯在仲裁中的地位充滿信心。

We plan to host our next Investor Day with a longer-term outlook after we close the transaction later this year.

我們計劃在今年稍後完成交易後，舉辦下一次具有更長遠前景的投資者日活動。

Chevron is poised for industry-leading free cash flow growth.

雪佛龍有望實現業界領先的自由現金流成長。

We expect to add $10 billion of annual free cash flow growth in -- annual free cash flow in 2026, led by growth in advantaged upstream assets.

我們預計，到 2026 年，年度自由現金流將增加 100 億美元，主要得益於優勢上游資產的成長。

With additional production from FGP and a further reduction in affiliate CapEx, we expect a sustained increase in distributions from TCO going forward.

隨著 FGP 產量的增加和附屬公司資本支出的進一步減少，我們預計未來 TCO 分配將持續增加。

In the Gulf of America, where we produced some of the highest margin barrels in our portfolio, will have additional growth as anchor and whale continue to ramp up, and we bring (inaudible) more online.

在美國灣，我們生產了一些我們投資組合中利潤率最高的桶裝石油，隨著錨定石油和鯨魚石油的不斷增加，以及我們上線更多石油，美國灣的石油將進一步增長。

And in the Permian, we're focused on operational efficiency and free cash flow, positioning the asset as a core cash generator for the company.

在二疊紀盆地，我們專注於營運效率和自由現金流，將資產定位為公司的核心現金來源。

We're also executing plans to deliver stronger results across the entire portfolio, including cash savings from our targeted $2 billion to $3 billion reduction in structural costs and improved returns in our downstream and Chemicals businesses.

我們也正在實施一項計劃，以使整個投資組合取得更強勁的業績，包括透過減少20億至30億美元的結構性成本以及提高下游和化學品業務的回報來節省現金。

At TCO, we achieved first oil at FGP last week.

在 TCO，我們上週在 FGP 取得了第一批石油。

This important milestone is the result of consistent disciplined execution by the project and operations teams.

這一重要里程碑是專案和營運團隊始終如一、嚴格執行的結果。

Our focus remains on a safe and reliable ramp-up of the plant.

我們的重點仍然是工廠的安全可靠地投產。

FGP adds 260,000 barrels of oil production capacity to the existing plants.

FGP 將為現有工廠增加 26 萬桶的石油生產能力。

We expect to achieve full production rates, 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day within the next 3 months.

我們預計在未來 3 個月內實現每天 100 萬桶油當量的最大產量。

At [$70 brands], expected free cash flow to Chevron is $5 billion in 2025 and $6 billion in 2026.

在 [70 美元的品牌] 價格下，雪佛龍預計 2025 年的自由現金流為 50 億美元，2026 年為 60 億美元。

This includes fixed loan repayments and quarterly dividends.

這包括固定貸款償還和季度股息。

We are proud to bring this large complex project online for the benefit of our shareholders and the Republic of Kazakhstan, and look forward to future collaboration to maximize the long-term value of the Tengiz reservoir.

我們很榮幸能夠將這項大型綜合項目投入運營，造福我們的股東和哈薩克共和國，並期待未來的合作，最大限度地提高田吉茲油藏的長期價值。

In 2024, execution efficiencies led to strong well and base business performance, helping us achieve another record for Permian production.

2024年，執行效率帶來了強勁的油井和基礎業務表現，幫助我們創造了二疊紀產量的另一個紀錄。

Over the last 5 years, we've delivered compound annual growth of 16%, while continuing to capture efficiencies.

在過去的五年裡，我們實現了 16% 的複合年增長率，同時繼續提高效率。

Through optimized pad and drilling designs and completion improvements like triple-frac, we're able to achieve these production levels with 40% fewer company-operated rigs than our plans included just a few years ago.

透過優化平台和鑽井設計以及三重壓裂等完井改進，我們能夠使用比幾年前的計劃少 40% 的公司營運鑽機來實現這些生產水準。

We expect production to reach 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 and plan to moderate growth in CapEx to drive predictable and durable free cash flow generation.

我們預計到 2025 年產量將達到每天 100 萬桶油當量，並計劃適度增加資本支出，以推動可預測且持久的自由現金流產生。

Our Permian portfolio delivered superior returns due to royalty advantaged acreage across all of the sub-basins which adds to both the top and bottom line.

我們的二疊紀投資組合因覆蓋所有子盆地的特許權使用費優勢土地而獲得了優異的回報，從而增加了營收和利潤。

We're continuing to develop and deploy technologies to enhance efficiencies and recoveries.

我們將繼續開發和部署技術以提高效率和復原能力。

We are leveraging our strengths in advanced chemicals and stimulation and scaling them across our shale and tight portfolio.

我們正在利用我們在先進化學品和刺激方面的優勢，並將其擴展到我們的頁岩和緻密油產品組合。

Our world-class upstream assets provide further growth opportunities that are poised to deliver value for decades.

我們世界一流的上游資產提供了進一步的成長機會，並將在未來幾十年創造價值。

In the Gulf of America, where we expect to grow production to 300,000 barrels a day, we achieved first oil at the anchor and oil projects and Ballymore is expected to come online around the middle of the year.

在美國灣，我們預計日產量將增加至 30 萬桶，我們在錨地和石油項目中首次獲得了石油，Ballymore 預計將在今年年中上線。

In Western Australia, our discovered resource has the ability to keep our LNG plants full for decades.

在西澳大利亞，我們發現的資源足以讓我們的液化天然氣工廠在未來幾十年內保持滿載運轉。

Last month, we announced an asset swap that will increase our equity in Wheatstone, which enables long-term asset development and monetization.

上個月，我們宣布了一項資產互換，這將增加我們在 Wheatstone 的股權，從而實現長期資產開發和貨幣化。

In West Africa, we have a queue of low-cost developments that are expected to sustain production for many years.

在西非，我們有一系列低成本開發項目，預計可以維持多年的生產。

We recently extended leases in Nigeria and had a shelf discovery that will tie back to existing infrastructure.

我們最近延長了在奈及利亞的租約，並發現了一個可與現有基礎設施連結的油田。

In Angola, we achieved first gas at the Sanha Lean Gas Connection project, and we plan to bring online our South N’dola development later this year.

在安哥拉，我們在桑哈精益天然氣連接項目中獲得了第一批天然氣，我們計劃在今年稍後啟動南納多拉開發項目。

In the Eastern Mediterranean, we have a significant resource position we're continuing to unlock.

在東地中海，我們擁有重要的資源優勢，並且持續開發中。

Expansion projects at Leviathan and Tamar are expected to come online through the end of the decade.

預計 Leviathan 和 Tamar 的擴建項目將在本世紀末投入使用。

Turning to our Downstream and Chemicals businesses.

轉向我們的下游和化學品業務。

We're focused on operating reliably and efficiently while executing competitive projects that extend our value chains and capture market synergies.

我們專注於可靠、高效的運營，同時執行有競爭力的項目，以延伸我們的價值鏈並獲得市場協同效應。

The recently completed expansion at our Pasadena refinery enhances our integrated value chain, by running more Permian crude, supplying more products to our regional marketing business and expanding synergies with the Pascagoula refinery.

我們帕薩迪納煉油廠最近完成的擴建工程增強了我們的綜合價值鏈，透過運行更多的二疊紀原油，為我們的區域行銷業務提供更多的產品，並擴大與帕斯卡古拉煉油廠的協同效應。

Our petrochemical growth projects in the US and Qatar are more than 50% complete and are expected to contribute to further cash flow growth beyond 2026.

我們在美國和卡達的石化成長項目已完成 50% 以上，預計將在 2026 年後進一步促進現金流成長。

Both projects are feedstock advantaged, have competitive cost structures and are well positioned to serve growing demand.

這兩個項目都具有原料優勢、成本結構具有競爭力，並且能夠很好地滿足不斷增長的需求。

We have several projects in our new Energies business that are expected to achieve key milestones in the next 2 years.

我們的新能源業務有幾個項目預計在未來兩年內實現關鍵里程碑。

In renewable fuels, we're in final commissioning of the Geismar renewable diesel expansion.

在再生燃料方面，我們正處於 Geismar 再生柴油擴建計畫的最終調試階段。

And at our Bunge joint venture, construction continues at the new oilseed processing plant in Louisiana, increasing our exposure across the renewable fuels value chain.

在我們的邦吉合資企業中，位於路易斯安那州的新油籽加工廠仍在繼續建設，這將提高我們在再生燃料價值鏈中的影響力。

We're working towards start-up of the ACES Green hydrogen product in Utah later this year, which will produce hydrogen from water and excess renewable power and stored underground for dispatchable lower carbon power generation.

我們正致力於在今年稍後在猶他州啟動 ACES 綠氫產品，該產品將利用水和過剩的可再生能源生產氫氣並儲存在地下以用於可調度的低碳發電。

The project is one of the world's largest hydrogen storage projects and will have over 200 megawatts of electrolyzer capacity.

該計畫是世界上最大的儲氫計畫之一，電解槽容量將超過200兆瓦。

In carbon capture and storage, Bayou Bend is working towards a fee decision for the offshore project and we're also developing plans to capture and store CO2 from our Pascagoula refinery.

在碳捕獲和儲存方面，Bayou Bend 正在努力就海上項目的成本做​​出決定，我們也正在製定從帕斯卡古拉煉油廠捕獲和儲存二氧化碳的計畫。

Earlier this week, we announced plans to jointly develop scalable, reliable power solutions to support growing energy demand from US data centers.

本週早些時候，我們宣布了聯合開發可擴展、可靠的電力解決方案的計劃，以支持美國資料中心日益增長的能源需求。

Chevron is positioned to participate in this growth and generate competitive returns through integration with our US natural gas business, experience in building and operating nearly 5 gigawatts of reliable behind-the-meter power, and expertise in technologies that can help provide a pathway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over time.

雪佛龍有能力參與這一成長，並透過與我們美國天然氣業務的整合、在建設和運營近5 千兆瓦可靠的用戶側電力方面的經驗，以及在有助於提供減少碳排放途徑的技術方面的專業知識，獲得有競爭力的回報。

We have secured slot reservations to purchase 7 natural gas-fired turbines from GE Vernova with deliveries beginning late 2026 and we're advancing site selection and engineering work while engaging customers.

我們已獲得從 GE Vernova 購買 7 台天然氣渦輪機的預訂，預計將於 2026 年底開始交付，我們正在與客戶合作的同時推進選址和工程工作。

We look forward to sharing more as our plans develop.

我們期待在計劃發展過程中分享更多資訊。

I'll hand it back to Eimear to close out our guidance for 2025 and 2026.

我將把它交還給 Eimear，以完成我們對 2025 年和 2026 年的指導。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

In the cyclical commodity business, capital and cost discipline always matter.

在週期性商品業務中，資本和成本紀律始終至關重要。

Chevron's CapEx and affiliate CapEx budgets reflect our commitment to capital efficiency while funding a balanced portfolio of short- and long-cycle investments.

雪佛龍的資本支出和附屬資本支出預算反映了我們對資本效率的承諾，同時為短期和長期投資組合提供平衡的資金。

Organic CapEx is expected to remain within our $14 billion to $16 billion guidance range.

有機資本支出預計將維持在我們 140 億美元至 160 億美元的指導範圍內。

A spend in the Permian and Gulf of America comes down, capital will flow out where within the portfolio to support continued growth.

二疊紀盆地和美國灣的支出減少，資本將流出投資組合以支持持續成長。

Affiliate CapEx is expected to trend down further as investments at TCO and CPChem come online.

隨著 TCO 和 CPChem 的投資上線，附屬公司的資本支出預計將進一步下降。

We're targeting $2 billion to $3 billion in structural cost reductions by the end of 2026.

我們的目標是到 2026 年底將結構性成本削減 20 億至 30 億美元。

Work is underway to deliver these savings through asset sales, scaling technology solutions, such as expanding the use of robotics, and changing how we work to improve efficiencies.

我們目前正在努力透過資產出售、擴大技術解決方案（例如擴大機器人的使用）以及改變工作方式來提高效率，以實現這些節約。

We're executing our plans to lower absolute costs while delivering growth.

我們正在執行計劃，在實現成長的同時降低絕對成本。

Last year, worldwide oil equivalent production was the highest in our history.

去年，全球石油當量產量達到了歷史最高水準。

Benefiting from a larger position in the DJ Basin following our acquisition of PDC Energy and nearly 18% growth in the Permian.

收購 PDC Energy 後，我們在 DJ 盆地佔據了更大的份額，而二疊紀盆地的產量增加了近 18%。

Excluding asset sales, we expect production to grow around 6% annually through 2026.

不包括資產出售，我們預計到 2026 年產量將每年增加 6% 左右。

In 2025, we expect growth to be weighted towards the second half of the year as key projects in Tengiz and the Gulf of America come online and ramp throughout the year.

到 2025 年，我們預計成長將集中在下半年，因為田吉茲和美洲灣的關鍵項目將上線並在全年加速發展。

We're excited about the year ahead.

我們對未來的一年充滿期待。

We're focused on delivering growth across advantaged assets and value teams while reducing absolute costs, starting our profitable new energy projects and advancing new behind the meter power solutions, and continuing to reward our shareholders with higher returns and a differentiated value proposition.

我們專注於透過優勢資產和價值團隊實現成長，同時降低絕對成本，啟動盈利的新能源項目並推進新的用戶側電力解決方案，並繼續以更高的回報和差異化的價值主張回報我們的股東。

I'll now hand it off to Jake.

我現在將其交給傑克。

That concludes our prepared remarks.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。

Additional guidance can be found in the appendix to this presentation and the slides and other information posted on chevron.com.

您可以在本簡報的附錄以及 chevron.com 上發布的幻燈片和其他資訊中找到更多指導。

We're now ready to take your questions.

我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

We ask that you limit yourself to one question.

我們要求您將問題限制為一個。

We will do our best to get all of your questions answered.

我們將盡力解答您的所有問題。

Katie.

凱蒂。

Please open the line.

請打開線路。

Thank you

謝謝

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

And firstly, congrats on getting FGP online.

首先，恭喜 FGP 上線。

I know its a big project.

我知道這是一個大項目。

So I wanted to ask about sort of underlying cash flow, excluding working capital.

所以我想問一下不包括營運資金的基礎現金流。

This quarter, at least versus our model the $5.3 billion was quite a bit with what we expected.

本季度，至少與我們的模型相比，53 億美元與我們的預期相當。

So could you just walk me through how I should think about any one-offs in there?

那麼你能告訴我應該如何考慮其中的一次性事件嗎？

And help me understand what the sort of underlying basis should be as we think about 2025?

請幫我理解，當我們思考 2025 年時，應該有什麼樣的基本基礎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hi, Biraj.

你好，Biraj。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

You're right.

你說得對。

Cash flow, excluding working capital, was impacted by some non-recurring and accounting items this past quarter.

上個季度，不包括營運資金的現金流受到一些非經常性項目和會計項目的影響。

So let me step you through the big ones.

那麼讓我帶你了解那些最重要的事情。

Maybe the first is we recognized some tax charges and earnings related to our recently completed Canadian asset sale, and that was around $1.5 billion.

也許首先是我們確認了與我們最近完成的加拿大資產出售相關的一些稅費和收益，約為 15 億美元。

It's important to note that these tax charges are offset in working capital.

值得注意的是，這些稅費已從營運資本中抵銷。

But if you exclude the working capital when you're looking at cash flow, you're still going to see that tax charge.

但是，如果您在查看現金流量時排除營運資本，您仍然會看到稅費。

So that's a big one.

所以這是一個大問題。

That's the main one.

這是最重要的。

The second one is we also recorded some charges in the quarter that for earnings, we had identified those as special items.

第二個是，我們還在本季記錄了一些費用，為了增加收益，我們將其確定為特殊項目。

We disclosed them back in December and our capital release.

我們早在 12 月就披露了這些內容，並釋放了資本。

However, we don't make the same adjustments for these items and cash flow.

但是，我們不會對這些項目和現金流做出相同的調整。

So you're seeing some of that flow through to the bottom line, and that's about a $500 million headwind.

因此，您會看到其中一些流入了底線，這就是約 5 億美元的逆風。

Beyond those two items, we did have some other impacts, the combination of affiliate distributions, some unique commercial activity, and that's another $500 million.

除了這兩項之外，我們確實還有一些其他影響，包括聯盟分銷的結合、一些獨特的商業活動，這又增加了 5 億美元。

So when you add up the three elements, that's about $2.5 billion to take into consideration for the cash flow this quarter.

因此，當你將這三個因素加起來時，本季的現金流需要考慮的金額約為 25 億美元。

So if you've got any additional questions on those pieces acknowledging they're a bit unusual this quarter.

因此，如果您對這些內容還有其他問題，請承認本季這些內容有點不尋常。

I mean, can follow up with you after the call and sure you how everything flows through.

我的意思是，可以在通話結束後跟進並確保您了解一切進展情況。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Paul Chang, Scotia Bank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Chang。

Thank you.

謝謝。

When we're looking at your next 2 years, I think we have a really good outlay and I think investors are comfortable.

當我們展望未來兩年時，我認為我們有一個非常好的支出，而且我認為投資者感到滿意。

I think the question has always been talking about longer term, say, by the turn of the decade, I mean what you're going to do if we put half (inaudible) side.

我認為問題一直是談論長期問題，例如，到本世紀初，我的意思是，如果我們把一半（聽不清楚）放在一邊，你會怎麼做。

And in here, can you talk about your opportunity set you already had (inaudible), for example, I believe there's a lot of discovery you guys have made in Nigeria and Angola.

在這裡，您能談談你們已經擁有的機會嗎（聽不清楚），例如，我相信你們在奈及利亞和安哥拉已經有很多發現。

But where are we in terms of bringing those that to the solution and having the project coming on stream?

但是，我們在將這些因素納入解決方案和使專案順利進行方面處於什麼位置？

What we need in order for that to become

我們需要做什麼才能實現這一點

[a lot]?

[很多]？

and how big are those opportunities that?

這些機會到底有多大？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Paul, thank you.

保羅，謝謝你。

Yeah, you're right.

是的，你說得對。

What we laid out today is a more detailed look ahead for the next 2 years.

今天我們所做的是對未來兩年更詳細的展望。

And as you rightly note, there's a lot of significant growth.

正如您所說，我們的成長非常顯著。

We wanted to provide you more confidence and visibility on that free cash flow growth.

我們希望為您提供更多有關自由現金流成長的信心和可見性。

And frankly, it continues to be de-risked every day here during the month of January with the whale startup and the FGP start-up, are two significant events that really de-risk that.

坦白說，1 月份，隨著鯨魚新創公司和 FGP 新創公司的啟動，這裡的風險每天都在降低，這兩個重要事件確實降低了風險。

And so that was the primary objective is provide transparency and confidence in that.

因此，主要目標是提供透明度和信心。

And I will set Hess aside, but I'll just acknowledge that we look forward to closing Hess, which will make a strong hand even stronger.

我將把赫斯放在一邊，但我要承認，我們期待關閉赫斯，這將使我們的強手更加強大。

If you look out beyond the end of 2026, there are a number of things that are going to contribute to continued free cash flow growth.

如果將目光投向 2026 年底以後，就會發現有許多因素將推動自由現金流持續成長。

We've got two big chemicals projects that are under construction that will come online late '26, early '27 time window.

我們有兩個大型化工項目正在建設中，預計將於26年底至27年初投入使用。

We've got projects in the Eastern Mediterranean in the near term for both Tamar and Leviathan, that will come on towards the end of this year and be ramping into '26 and beyond.

我們近期在東地中海地區有 Tamar 和 Leviathan 項目，這些項目將在今年年底前啟動，並將持續到 26 年及以後。

And then we've got further work underway, particularly at Leviathan for yet another expansion in the Eastern Mediterranean.

然後，我們也正在進行進一步的工作，特別是在 Leviathan，進行東地中海的另一次擴張。

I would expect Argentina over the back half of this decade to begin to grow at a rate that's stronger than what we've seen thus far.

我預計，本世紀後半葉阿根廷的經濟成長率將比迄今為止更強勁。

Contingent upon -- continued progress in policy and kind of government stability and macro environment stability there, but the signs there have been encouraging and positive.

取決於政策、政府穩定和宏觀環境穩定的持續進展，但那裡的跡像是令人鼓舞和積極的。

You mentioned West Africa.

您提到了西非。

There's a number of opportunities.

有很多機會。

I talked about a discovery on the Nigeria shelf, Sanha Lean Gas, South N’dola.

我談到了在尼日利亞大陸架發現的南納多拉桑哈精益天然氣。

We have a number of other very attractive prospects there.

我們在那裡還有許多其他非常有吸引力的前景。

We haven't really gone below 10,000 feet to produce yet in that region.

我們還沒有真正深入到海拔 10,000 英尺以下的地區進行生產。

We picked up additional acreage offshore Angola, three new blocks that are undergoing seismic work right now.

我們在安哥拉近海獲得了額外的油田面積，其中三個新區塊目前正在進行地震作業。

And we haven't talked a lot about West Africa in recent years given some of the other things within our portfolio, but that has a lot of running room left ahead of us.

考慮到我們投資組合中的其他一些事項，我們近年來沒有過多談論西非問題，但我們在這方面還有很大的發展空間。

Venezuelan Partition Zone, huge, huge resource positions.

委內瑞拉分治區，巨大的資源位置。

We've been moving thoughtfully for particular reasons in each of those locations, but those present long-term opportunities that are captured and can become very attractive.

我們在每個地點的搬遷都是出於特定的原因，但這些地點提供的長期機會可以被抓住，並且會變得非常有吸引力。

And we've got a really nice exploration portfolio.

我們擁有非常好的勘探投資組合。

In West Africa, South America, the US Gulf, the Eastern Mediterranean that we expect to provide further resource opportunities.

我們預期西非、南美、美國墨西哥灣、東地中海地區將提供更多的資源機會。

We've got technology that can unlock things.

我們擁有可以解鎖的技術。

And of course, a large low decline base that we can sustain with a very competitive capital investment and good underlying growth rates.

當然，我們可以透過極具競爭力的資本投資和良好的潛在成長率來維持較大的低下降基數。

So we've seen outsized growth here in recent times, right.

所以我們最近看到了超高速的成長，對吧。

Last year's growth 7%.

去年增長了7%。

We're guiding to a 6% CAGR on for the next couple of years.

我們預計未來幾年的複合年增長率為 6%。

That's probably not a growth rate that anyone would expect to continue.

這可能不是任何人期望的能夠持續的成長率。

But there are plenty of opportunities out there in the 2027 and beyond [queue] we'll sort through and fund the best of those within a tight disciplined capital budget.

但在 2027 年及以後仍有許多機會，我們將在嚴格控制的資本預算內篩選出最好的機會並為其提供資金。

Thanks Paul.

謝謝保羅。

Neli Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的奈利‧梅塔 (Neli Mehta)。

Yeah.

是的。

Good morning, Mike in your team.

早安，你團隊的 Mike。

Just wanted to better understand the power business and the announcement from earlier this week with GE Vernova.

只是想更了解電力業務以及本週早些時候 GE Vernova 發布的公告。

Mike, you've talked a lot about power being a tricky business, and Chevron seen that firsthand over the last 30 years at different points.

麥克，你多次談到電力是一項棘手的業務，雪佛龍在過去 30 年的不同時期親身見證了這一點。

But and wanting to ensure that you're staying true to your core competency.

而是想要確保自己能夠堅守自己的核心競爭力。

So how do you think about playing in this ecosystem and ensuring that you de-risk it so that you can preserve the upside?

那麼您如何看待在這個生態系統中參與並確保降低風險，以便能夠保留上行空間？

Yeah.

是的。

So Neil, I would tell you, you should think of this as being aligned with what we've said we were looking to do, which is leverage our strengths to advance lower carbon energy solutions to meet demand growth in the world.

所以尼爾，我想告訴你，你應該認為這與我們說過的我們希望做的事情是一致的，那就是利用我們的優勢來推進低碳能源解決方案，以滿足世界需求的成長。

We operate nearly 5 gigawatts of reliable and at scale power today at Gorgon, at TCO and refineries.

目前，我們在 Gorgon、TCO 和煉油廠經營近 5 千兆瓦的可靠且規模化的電力。

We know how to build and operate large-scale power generation and integrate it to a core customer.

我們知道如何建造和運營大型發電廠並將其整合到核心客戶。

We know how to operate these assets very, very well.

我們非常非常了解如何運作這些資產。

We've got technical capabilities that are required to do this.

我們擁有完成此項任務所需的技術能力。

In the US, we've got a very large natural gas position.

在美國，我們擁有非常大的天然氣份額。

And we've been diversifying some of our gas markets with some LNG off-take.

我們一直在透過一些液化天然氣銷售來實現部分天然氣市場的多元化。

And this allows us to backstop power investments for premium customers.

這使我們能夠為優質客戶提供電力投資支援。

We have said we didn't envision ourselves as a merchant power player, and we still don't.

我們曾經說過，我們不認為自己是個商業強者，現在仍然如此。

Building power to sell into the grid and just generate merchant power is probably not going to deliver returns competitive with our portfolio, but a high reliability at scale offering that's delivered rapidly is something that's in high demand from customers right now.

建造電力系統並出售給電網，然後僅僅生產商業電力可能不會帶來與我們的投資組合有競爭力的回報，但目前客戶對快速交付的大規模高可靠性產品有著很高的需求。

You can see PPAs that have been done for things like re-commissioning nuclear facilities that give you some sense of the value that these have for customers.

您可以看到為重新啟動核設施等事宜而簽訂的電力購買協議 (PPA)，它可以讓您了解這些協議對客戶的價值。

And we've been engaged in discussions with the hyper scalers for a year or more to understand what they're looking for and understand whether or not that's something that we can deliver on it.

我們已經與超大規模企業進行了一年多的討論，以了解他們的需求並了解我們是否能夠滿足他們的需求。

And we think that it really does make good sense for us.

我們認為這對我們來說確實很有意義。

We're -- we've got seven of GE [Vernova] largest turbines with reservation slots for delivery beginning in late '26 and then into '27, and would expect to be on the front end of what will be a real surge in power demand in this country.

我們擁有 7 台 GE [Vernova] 最大的渦輪機，預定於 26 年底到 27 年開始交付，預計將在 2020 年真正激增。

And importantly, the last thing I'll say is I think most of the people on the call are familiar with the challenges that the grid in this country faces right now and ensuring we keep supply of electricity reliable into the economy as it stands today.

重要的是，我要說的最後一件事是，我認為電話會議中的大多數人都熟悉這個國家電網目前面臨的挑戰，並確保我們在目前的經濟狀況下保持可靠的電力供應。

Doing this off the grid and behind the meter doesn't further tax and already tax distribution infrastructure, and it doesn't put this investment cost into the rate base and drive up costs for consumers as well.

在電網外和電錶後進行這種做法不會進一步增加稅收和已經徵稅的配電基礎設施的稅收，也不會將這筆投資成本計入電費基礎，也不會推高消費者的成本。

So we think this is something that's good for America.

所以我們認為這對美國來說是件好事。

American Energy abundance can help ensure AI leadership.

美國能源豐富有助於確保人工智慧的領導地位。

It's good for the public.

這對公眾有好處。

It will create jobs and it will help to keep rates from rising and it's good for the big customers.

它將創造就業機會，並有助於防止利率上升，這對大客戶有利。

They're looking for reliable and fast solution to deliver this power and eventually lower carbon options to reduce carbon intensity.

他們正在尋找可靠、快速的解決方案來提供這種電力，並最終降低碳排放以降低碳強度。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝，尼爾。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning guys.

大家早安。

Thanks for the opportunity to ask Mike.

感謝有機會向麥克提問。

I did warn Jake I may have a Part A and a Part B, so it's technically one question, but hopefully, you can -- I'll assume he blessed it.

我確實警告過傑克，我可能有 A 部分和 B 部分，所以從技術上講這是一個問題，但希望你可以 - 我認為他同意這一點。

So the incremental disclosure on the bridge to 2027 is really, really helpful.

因此，到 2027 年為止的逐步揭露確實非常有幫助。

But I wonder -- it's never enough, obviously, but I wonder if you could just benchmark against what you gave us in February 2023, I guess, under similar conditions.

但我想知道——顯然，這永遠不夠，但我想知道你是否可以在類似條件下，以 2023 年 2 月給我們的東西為基準。

So what is the incremental 10, including the debt payback?

那麼包括債務償還在內的增量 10 是多少？

What does that look like in 2027 versus, I guess, what you gave us before?

我想，與您之前提供給我們的相比，2027 年的情況會是什麼樣子？

And the Part B is obviously, Tengiz is the big story here.

顯然，B 部分中，田吉茲 (Tengiz) 是重點。

But a couple of days ago, I think the Kazakh government on the wire is actually talking about contract extensions, which is great news for you potentially, but on better terms.

但幾天前，我認為哈薩克政府實際上正在談論延長合同，這對你來說可能是個好消息，但條件更好。

So I was just wondering if there was any color you could offer on that?

所以我只是想知道您是否能對此提供任何解釋？

Yes.

是的。

So Eimear, why don't you talk about free cash flow for 2027 and then I'll take the concession.

所以 Eimear，你為什麼不談談 2027 年的自由現金流，然後我會接受讓步。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

The short answer is it's aligned with the previous guidance.

簡短的回答是，它與先前的指導一致。

So we're really re-affirming that guidance.

因此，我們確實在重申這項指引。

Obviously, since then, there's been some puts and takes.

顯然，自那時起，就發生過一些變動。

On the portfolio side, we've -- out of PDC since our last guidance.

在投資組合方面，自上次指引以來，我們已不再使用 PDC。

We've divested some assets as well, primarily Canada.

我們也剝離了一些資產，主要是加拿大的資產。

There's been some price assumptions changed.

一些價格假設已經改變。

But we do have growth [later] today out to 2026, and we see growth beyond that.

但從今天起至 2026 年，我們確實會出現成長，而且我們還會看到超越這一範圍的成長。

We've got the CPChem projects that will be online around that time.

我們的 CPChem 項目將於那時上線。

We'll have some Eastern Med [brine feed] projects in Tamar and Leviathan that will come after 2026.

我們將在塔瑪爾和利維坦開展一些東部地中海[鹽水供給]項目，這些項目將在 2026 年後啟動。

Mike talked earlier about the Argentina potential there and the power potential.

麥克之前談到了阿根廷在那裡的潛力和電力潛力。

And then in addition to that, we've got the $2 billion to $3 billion of structural cost reductions that are underway.

除此之外，我們也正在進行 20 億至 30 億美元的結構性成本削減。

So the short answer is it's aligned.

簡短的回答是它是一致的。

But maybe many of the projects that we talked about a few years ago have also been de-risked since then.

但也許我們幾年前談論的許多項目從那時起也已經消除了風險。

So we'd expect to provide the 2027 outlook later on the year.

因此，我們預計將在今年稍後提供 2027 年的展望。

Okay.

好的。

Yeah on the concession, Doug, we're still focused on ramping up safely and reliable.

是的，道格，我們仍然專注於安全可靠地提高產量。

This is a really important milestone, and it signals moving to the next phase in the life of that field.

這是一個非常重要的里程碑，它標誌著該領域進入下一個階段。

And so we're absolutely laser-focused on getting that right.

因此，我們全心全意地致力於做好這件事。

Early performance has been very stable and very encouraging.

早期的表現非常穩定，非常令人鼓舞。

As we get through the ramp up to see the plant and reservoir performance, we'll then be able to really turn our focus to the future.

隨著我們逐漸了解工廠和水庫的性能，我們就能真正將注意力轉向未來。

This is a world-class asset.

這是一項世界級的資產。

We've got a long proud history in Kazakhstan and with the TCO partnership and we certainly would like to extend the concession, but it has to work for everyone.

我們在哈薩克與 TCO 合作有著悠久而自豪的歷史，我們當然希望延長特許權，但這必須對每個人都有好處。

It has to work for the Republic.

它必須為共和國服務。

It has to work for our company and our shareholders has to be competitive.

它必須對我們的公司有利並且我們的股東必須具有競爭力。

These things take time.

這些事情需要時間。

These are complex contracts, complex negotiations.

這些都是複雜的合同，複雜的談判。

And we'll keep you posted as that evolves over time.

我們會隨時向您通報最新進展。

Okay.

好的。

And that was a clever way to get two completely unrelated questions in, Doug.

道格，這是一個提出兩個完全不相關的問題的聰明方法。

So if Jake's blessed that, I better have to talk to Jake, about the ground rules in the future.

所以如果傑克同意的話，我最好和傑克談談未來的基本規則。

Let's go to the next question.

我們來看下一個問題。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的德文·麥克德莫特 (Devin McDermott)。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Thanks for taking my question and for a detailed update today.

感謝您回答我的問題並提供今天的詳細更新。

Mike, I wanted to ask you about policy.

麥克，我想問你有關政策的問題。

There's been in the US now a series of energy-related executive orders over the past week.

過去一周，美國推出了一系列與能源相關的行政命令。

I was wondering if you could talk through how this might impact some of your oil and gas operations, especially given the large presence you have in the Gulf and then new energy opportunities and we think through the flurry of news flow over the last year?

我想知道您是否可以談談這可能會對您的一些石油和天然氣業務產生什麼影響，特別是考慮到您在墨西哥灣的龐大業務以及新的能源機會，並且我們回顧了去年的一系列新聞？

There's also been some headlines in your Venezuela license, if you could address that as part of the response.

您的委內瑞拉許可證也引起了一些關注，如果您可以將其作為回應的一部分來處理的話。

I'd appreciate it.

我將非常感激。

I know a lot to unpack there, but I would love your thoughts.

我知道還有很多事情要解決，但我很想知道你的想法。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, that is a lot Devin.

是的，德文，很多。

Following up with

後續

--

--

Yeah.

是的。

But they're all related for you.

但它們對你來說都是相關的。

So let me start kind of at the at the highest level.

那麼就讓我從最高層次開始講吧。

For years now, I've been calling for a more balanced discussion about energy.

多年來，我一直呼籲就能源議題進行更加平衡的討論。

We're finally beginning to see it.

我們終於開始看到它了。

We're seeing economic prosperity, energy security and environmental protection, all being brought together.

我們看到經濟繁榮、能源安全和環境保護正在融為一體。

And in the past, really the dialogue skewed toward environmental protection and much less toward the others.

而在過去，對話其實偏向於環境保護，而較少討論其他問題。

And I think it's a welcome change to see this reflected.

我認為看到這一點是一個可喜的改變。

It's a conversation that now recognizes oil and gas are a vital part of the energy mix in this country and in the world, which is a reality that we all need to acknowledge.

現在的對話認識到石油和天然氣是這個國家和世界能源結構的重要組成部分，這是我們所有人都需要承認的現實。

And it's good to see an administration that is intent on leveraging and encouraging American energy abundance for the benefit of our economy, for the benefit of our security, for the benefit of our allies and intends to do that in a way that also provides environmental protection.

很高興看到政府致力於利用和鼓勵美國能源豐富，以造福我們的經濟、我們的安全、我們的盟友，並打算以一種保護環境的方式做到這一點。

So I think it's a more balanced approach.

所以我認為這是一種更平衡的方法。

I think it's a welcome approach.

我認為這是一個值得歡迎的方法。

And the specifics still remain to play out.

具體細節仍有待解決。

Many of these executive orders direct agencies to review things, to look at actions that can be taken.

許多行政命令都指示各機構審查事態，研究可以採取的行動。

And so actual actions, I think, for the most part, still remain ahead of us, but I would expect them to encourage more access, for instance, more regular lease sales.

因此，我認為，在很大程度上，實際行動仍需我們繼續推進，但我希望它們能夠鼓勵更多的人參與，例如，更定期的租賃銷售。

There is building bipartisan support for permit reform, which is very necessary, not just for our industry but for many other industries where it's become so difficult to build things here in the United States.

兩黨對許可證改革的支持日益增強，這非常必要，不僅對我們的行業如此，對在美國開展業務已經變得十分困難的許多其他行業也是如此。

And so I think it's a welcome reset and one that our country will benefit from.

因此，我認為這是一個值得歡迎的調整，我們的國家將從中受益。

I can't say much more about anything.

我不能再多說任何事了。

Venezuela is an issue that has been around for quite some time during the first Trump administration, during the Biden administration.

委內瑞拉問題在川普第一任政府和拜登政府時期就已經存在很久了。

And now again, in the second Trump term, sanctions exist on Venezuela.

如今，在川普第二任期內，對委內瑞拉再次實施制裁。

We're the only US company on the ground there.

我們是那裡唯一一家美國公司。

We're focused on keeping our people safe, ensuring that assets operate in a way that protects the environment and complying with all the laws.

我們致力於保障員工安全，確保資產以保護環境的方式運作並遵守所有法律。

We don't set policy.

我們不制定政策。

We comply with laws, and we engage with the government to help inform them of the potential impacts of policy choices, and we'll continue to do so.

我們遵守法律，並與政府合作，幫助他們了解政策選擇的潛在影響，我們將繼續這樣做。

Thanks for the question, Devin.

謝謝你的提問，德文。

Stephen Richardson, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬理查森 (Stephen Richardson)，Evercore ISI。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Mike, I was wondering if you could talk about the position of the Permian in the portfolio.

麥克，我想知道您是否可以談談二疊紀在投資組合中的地位。

You've got this 1 million-barrel a day target out there that looks like you're going to hit if you haven't already hit it pretty soon.

你們設定了每天 100 萬桶的目標，如果你們還沒很快達到的話，看起來你們很快就能達到。

And I know there was a previous target in the last Analyst Day that was a little higher than that.

我知道上一次分析師日設定的目標比這個高一點。

Can you maybe just talk about the right amount of unconventionals in the portfolio?

您能否談談投資組合中非常規資產的適當數量？

And do we think about the Permian and the DJ?

我們是否考慮過二疊紀和 DJ？

Do we think about it relative to the total -- is it production?

我們是否從總體來考慮它——它是產量嗎？

Is it decline curve?

是下降曲線嗎？

How do you think about the right amount of un-conventionals for the size of the corporation over the next couple of years?

您認為未來幾年內，適合公司規模的非常規舉措的數量應該是多少？

Yeah.

是的。

So let me start.

那麼就讓我開始吧。

I'm really pleased with our team in the Permian and the performance again in the fourth quarter.

我對我們團隊在二疊紀盆地的表現以及第四季的表現感到非常滿意。

We delivered 992,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter.

我們在第四季每天交付 992,000 桶。

We were over 1 million barrels a day in December.

12 月份，我們的日產量超過 100 萬桶。

For the full year, we saw a growth of 18% and really, really strong performance across all aspects of the Permian.

就全年而言，我們看到了 18% 的成長率，二疊紀盆地的各個方面都表現得非常非常強勁。

And we expect to continue to grow even as we've now passed our peak investments, and we've started to bring capital investment down.

儘管我們的投資高峰期已經過去，而且我們已開始減少資本投資，但我們仍預期業務仍將繼續成長。

We still expect to see a 9% or 10% production growth in 2025.

我們仍預期 2025 年產量將成長 9% 或 10%。

Something a little bit less than that, probably in 2026.

比這個數字稍微少一點，可能是在 2026 年。

And we're headed towards a lower rate of growth.

我們的成長率正下降。

And at some point, you can't grow a position like this infinitely.

在某種程度上，你不能無限地發展這樣的職位。

That was the criticism of the industry last decade is companies only focused on growing, and they never focused on generating free cash flow and returning to shareholders.

這是過去十年對該行業的批評，即公司只注重成長，而從不注重創造自由現金流和回報股東。

And that's always been our plan to do just that.

我們的計劃一直都是這樣的。

So we'll have an asset that will produce something over 1 million barrels a day for many, many years into the future.

因此，我們將擁有一項在未來很多年裡每天能產出超過 100 萬桶石油的資產。

And as we can maintain that with a lower rate of capital investment than we've required to get to where we are, that really opens up the free cash flow off of that asset.

而且，我們可以維持低於達到目前水準所需的資本投資率，這確實可以釋放該資產的自由現金流。

So we are very pleased with that.

我們對此感到非常高興。

We've got 400,000 barrels a day, give or take now in the DJ Basin, which is kind of in that plateau phase where we can draw free cash flow off of that.

目前，DJ 盆地的石油日產量約為 40 萬桶，目前產量處於平台期，我們可以從中獲得自由現金流。

We closed Hess.

我們關閉了赫斯。

There's another couple of hundred thousand barrels a day in the Bakken.

巴肯每天還有幾十萬桶石油。

You bring Argentina in, and now you're talking 1.7 million barrels a day or so.

如果加上阿根廷，現在的產量就是每天約 170 萬桶。

And this year, we produced 3.3 in change.

今年，我們的產量達到了 3.3。

And so it's kind of 50% of the portfolio.

所以它佔投資組合的50%。

And the nice thing about that is that very modest CapEx you can hold that production flat for quite some time and use that as a big cash generator.

這樣做的好處是，只需非常適度的資本支出，就可以在相當長的一段時間內保持產量平穩，並將其作為巨大的現金來源。

And so that is the intent.

這就是我們的意圖。

There's always the prospects that we see technology breakthroughs.

我們總是有可能看到技術突破。

We're working on improved recoveries that if economic could open a new phase of growth.

我們正在致力於促進經濟復甦，以開啟新的成長階段。

And I don't want to predict that, but I certainly wouldn't want to rule that out.

我不想預測這一點，但我當然不想排除這種可能性。

And so as we continue to get better and better at this and develop technologies to improve recoveries, we can extend the plateau, we could raise plateaus, but this is a highly economic asset that is a core position that will generate production and cash long into the future.

因此，隨著我們在這方面不斷進步，開發出提​​高採收率的技術，我們可以延長高原期，提高高原期，但這是一種高度經濟的資產，是一種核心地位，將長期產生生產和現金。

And of course, in the Permian, the royalty advantage that we have is kind of icing on top of that cake.

當然，在二疊紀盆地，我們擁有的特許權使用費優勢可謂是錦上添花。

And so that's how we think about it.

這就是我們的想法。

I can't give you a magic formula, a percentage.

我無法給你一個神奇的公式或一個百分比。

But it's -- like I said, it's approaching 50% of our overall production, which is a significant piece.

但正如我所說，它接近我們總產量的 50%，這是一個重要組成部分。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼（Jason Gabelman），TD Cowen。

Hey, thanks for taking my questions.

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。

I wanted to ask about the TCO distribution, and I appreciate the detail between first half and second half of this year.

我想問TCO的分佈情況，我很欣賞今年上半年和下半年之間的細節。

The $5 billion and $6 billion for '25 and '26, is that similar to the $4 billion and $5 billion, respectively, that you guided to previously just at a higher price deck?

25 年和 26 年的 50 億美元和 60 億美元，是否與您之前預測的 40 億美元和 50 億美元相似，只是價格更高？

And further to the distribution -- it looks like based on TCO's own filings at their operating expenses from 2022 to 2023 have gone up about $5 a barrel.

進一步了解分佈情況——根據 TCO 自己的文件，從 2022 年到 2023 年，其營運費用似乎上漲了約 5 美元/桶。

I'm not sure if that's related to the Russian war or something else, but I wonder if that increase in OpEx is contemplated in your free cash flow guidance for TCO, or if that's something you expect to come back down?

我不確定這是否與俄羅斯戰爭或其他因素有關，但我想知道您的 TCO 自由現金流指導中是否考慮到了 OpEx 的增加，或者您是否預計它會回落？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jason.

傑森。

Yes, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

I can talk to that.

我可以談一下這個。

The free cash flow inflection that's coming with -- which is actually upon us now that the asset has started up.

隨著資產的啟動，自由現金流的變化實際上已經到來。

So we shared in the slide, $5 billion for 2025 and $6 billion for 2026.

因此我們在幻燈片中分享了，2025 年為 50 億美元，2026 年為 60 億美元。

What's contributing there is obviously the production but also the affiliate CapEx is coming down.

顯然，產量有所提高，但附屬公司的資本支出也在下降。

So with the project completing and the affiliate CapEx is reducing significantly.

因此，隨著專案的完成，附屬公司的資本支出將大幅減少。

And so that's resulted in the free cash flow.

這就產生了自由現金流。

We also anticipate that as the plant gets (inaudible) and the safe and reliable start-up completes that they'll be focused as well on operational OpEx and optimizing that, given the new base business of 1 million barrels a day that they will have.

我們還預計，隨著工廠的（聽不清楚）以及安全可靠的啟動完成，他們也將專注於營運營運成本並進行最佳化，因為他們將擁有每天 100 萬桶的新基礎業務。

So that can move around a little bit during the year.

因此，這種情況在一年內可能會有稍許變化。

But generally, we have OpEx coming down there, too.

但整體而言，我們的營運支出也會下降。

So those are two things that are contributing to the free cash flow in addition to the production.

因此，除了生產之外，還有兩件事對自由現金流有所貢獻。

Alastair Syme, Citi.

花旗銀行的阿拉斯泰爾‧西姆 (Alastair Syme)。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I just wanted to ask about

我只是想問一下

[Bolivia].

[玻利維亞]。

If you've got a good sense of why first exploration well failed and whether you've seen enough to make you want to go again in a different location?

您是否已經清楚了解第一次勘探失敗的原因，以及是否已經看到足夠多的信息以致想再次前往不同地點？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, Alastair.

是的，阿拉斯泰爾。

The first well was the first well.

第一口井就是第一口井。

And in exploration, you learn that oftentimes, particularly in a new -- relatively new basin you need a lot of information.

在勘探過程中，你會發現，很多時候，特別是在一個新盆地——相對較新的盆地中，你需要大量的資訊。

And so each well is actually -- while you're targeting hydrocarbons, the real objective is to learn.

所以實際上每個井都是——當你瞄準碳氫化合物時，真正的目標是學習。

And failure to learn would be a failure of the well.

而學習失敗就意味著失敗。

Failure defined oil and gas happens more often than not.

石油和天然氣故障的情況時有發生。

And so we have a very large position on two different blocks in the Orange and the [Walvis] basins.

因此，我們在 Orange 盆地和 Walvis 盆地的兩個不同區塊中佔有很大的份額。

As people are well aware, others have found some encouraging things on their blocks.

眾所周知，其他人也在他們的社區發現了一些令人鼓舞的事情。

And so there's a working petroleum system that exists there.

那裡存在一個正常運作的石油系統。

And we're very pleased with the information that we learned.

我們對所了解到的資訊感到非常高興。

And it does inform future activity, and it helps us understand the geologic history of that part of the basin which is fundamental to understanding how the depositional structures and geology evolved.

它確實為未來的活動提供了信息，並幫助我們了解盆地該部分的地質歷史，這對於理解沉積結構和地質如何演變至關重要。

And we'll use that to inform future activity.

我們將利用這一點來指導未來的活動。

We are -- it's not enough, if I heard your question correctly, it's not enough to say we're not interested.

我們——這還不夠，如果我沒有聽錯你的問題的話，僅僅說我們不感興趣是不夠的。

It's enough to say we continue to be interested.

可以說我們仍然感興趣。

The other thing I'll just tell you is that the well went down very fast.

我還要告訴你的另一件事是井沉得非常快。

The cost was much lower than some of the other wells we've seen in that area.

成本比我們在該地區見過的其他一些油井要低得多。

And so I think the other encouraging thing that we learned is that the drilling environment there is one that we can execute very well in and keep future exploration wells in a very cost-effective manner.

因此，我認為我們了解到的另一件令人鼓舞的事情是，在那裡的鑽井環境中，我們可以很好地執行，並以非常經濟高效的方式保留未來的勘探井。

So we'll talk to you more as we evaluate the next steps in both of those basins and continue to evolve our program.

因此，在評估這兩個盆地的下一步行動並繼續改進我們的計劃時，我們會與您進行更多交流。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I want to go back to the Power venture.

我想重返 Power 公司。

I want to ask about how do you think about the capital commitment for Chevron related to that venture?

我想問一下，您如何看待雪佛龍與該專案相關的資本承諾？

It is really impressive that you were able to secure these high-demand turbine spots.

你們能夠獲得這些高需求的渦輪機位置確實令人印象深刻。

So have all the deposits for them being made and just how much equity capital would you be willing to put into it?

那麼，您已經支付了所有訂金嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you, Betty.

謝謝你，貝蒂。

It's still early days, and we're not providing public details on some of the specifics of the joint developments as we move into the next phase of site selection and engineering and the like.

現在還為時過早，隨著我們進入選址和工程等下一階段，我們不會公開提供有關聯合開發的一些具體細節。

We have secured the slot reservations with payments.

我們已付款並確認了座位預訂。

And those are, again, terms that are confidential.

再次強調，這些條款屬於保密條款。

We won't have 100% of this.

我們不會 100% 達成這個目標。

It will be funded through partners and other investors.

它將透過合作夥伴和其他投資者獲得資金。

And we'll provide more detail at the time that's appropriate on that.

我們將在適當的時候提供更多詳細資訊。

The one thing that I do just want to call out is we haven't changed our CapEx guidance.

我只想指出的一件事是，我們沒有改變我們的資本支出指引。

And so this will be done within the CapEx guidance that we've issued.

因此，這將在我們發布的資本支出指導範圍內完成。

We intend to develop opportunities that are competitive with other things in our portfolio.

我們打算開發與我們投資組合中的其他產品具有競爭力的機會。

And here, you've got the benefit of scale.

在這裡，您可以獲得規模優勢。

We've got an early position in the queue.

我們在隊列中佔據較早的位置。

Gas turbine generators are seeing upward price pressure.

燃氣渦輪發電機面臨上行價格壓力。

And so it's better to be early in the queue than later in the queue.

因此，排隊時早一點比排隊太晚好。

And so we'll be focused on capital efficiency here and developing a project that delivers value for customers and delivers value for shareholders.

因此，我們將專注於資本效率並開發為客戶和股東帶來價值的項目。

So stay tuned for more details as things evolve later this year.

因此，請繼續關註今年稍後事態發展的更多細節。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Good, thanks.

很好，謝謝。

Maybe if I could ask one on the Gulf of Mexico, or Gulf of America, or whatever we're calling it now.

也許我可以問墨西哥灣、美國灣或不管我們現在怎麼稱呼它。

You've now got two of the three projects online for the 2025 and 2026 time period with Ballymore coming soon.

目前，您已經擁有 2025 年和 2026 年期間三個項目中的兩個，Ballymore 也即將推出。

I mean what -- what have you seen in terms of reservoir performance so far?

我的意思是——到目前為止，您看到了水庫效能方面的情況如何？

What have you learned in terms from these developments, both on the I guess, on the subsurface and on the facility side?

我猜，從這些發展中，您學到了什麼，無論是在地下還是在設施方面？

And how does it inform kind of future potential for you in the basin?

它如何為您揭示該盆地的未來潛力？

Yeah, Thanks, Ryan.

是的，謝謝，瑞安。

The short story is the wells are performing very well.

簡而言之，這些油井的產出狀況非常好。

We've got two wells on [Line] at

我們在[Line]有兩口井

[Anchor].

[錨]。

We've got a third well that we expect to come online in the second quarter.

我們已經有第三口油井，預計第二季投產。

The fourth and fifth wells, we've got top holes drilled and the top hole section drilled, and we had remaining drilling and completion work ahead of us, a fifth well in early 2026.

對於第四口和第五口井，我們已經鑽完了頂部孔和頂部孔段，還有剩餘的鑽井和完井工作要做，第五口井將在 2026 年初完工。

So we are able to drill and complete in this pressure and temperature regime, which is a new one for the industry.

因此，我們能夠在這種壓力和溫度條件下進行鑽井和完井，這對該行業來說是一個新情況。

Reservoir performance, frankly, is at or above expectations.

坦白說，水庫性能達到或超出預期。

And so we're quite encouraged.

因此我們非常受鼓舞。

On [ Whale ], I would refer you to the operator for specifics and let them update you on that.

關於[鯨魚]，我建議您向運營商了解具體情況，並讓他們向您通報最新情況。

And Ballymore, as I mentioned, online here mid-year, and so we'll update you as we see performance out of that.

正如我所提到的，Ballymore 將於年中上線，因此，我們會根據其表現及時向大家更新資訊。

But it's very encouraging.

但這非常令人鼓舞。

The Gulf of -- we're calling it Gulf of America.

海灣－我們稱之為美國灣。

It's the -- that's the position of the US government now.

這就是──這就是美國政府現在的立場。

And there's a lot of running room out there.

那裡還有很多跑步空間。

We're a large lease holder.

我們是大型租賃持有者。

There's a lot of acreage that is prospective for tiebacks.

有大量土地有潛力用於回接。

There's also acreage that is prospective for greenfield developments.

還有大量土地有望用於綠地開發。

We've brought costs down significantly.

我們已大幅降低成本。

We've advanced technology to operate in different pressure regimes.

我們擁有先進的技術，可以在不同的壓力條件下運作。

And I think this going to be an important producing basin for our country for many, many years to come.

我認為，在未來很多年裡，這裡都會成為我國重要的產油盆地。

Thanks Ryan.

謝謝瑞安。

John Royall, JP Morgan.

摩根大通 (JP Morgan) 的約翰‧羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So I was wondering if you can just talk about your operations in the Eastern [Med] today and just an update there.

所以我想知道您是否可以談談您今天在東部[地中海]的運營情況以及那裡的最新進展。

Obviously seen a significant improvement in the political situation in that part of the world, and there are no guarantees that's forever.

顯然，該地區的政治局勢有了明顯改善，但這並不能保證永遠如此。

But as Mike mentioned, you do have some project growth that you're working through there.

但正如麥克所提到的，您確實正在努力實現一些專案成長。

So maybe just an operational update on how you're feeling about your position there and the risk as you see it today?

那麼也許只是關於您對您在那裡的職位的感受以及您今天看到的風險的一個運營更新？

Yeah.

是的。

So first of all, we're really pleased to see tensions diminishing in the region and hopefully a lasting piece for the people there.

首先，我們非常高興看到該地區的緊張局勢正在緩和，並希望這對當地人民來說是一個持久的和平。

The headline is there's no real change to our plans, John.

標題是我們的計劃沒有真正的改變，約翰。

We expect projects that are in execution at both Tamar and Leviathan to come online by the end of the year or into early 2026.

我們預計，Tamar 和 Leviathan 正在實施的專案將在今年年底或 2026 年初上線。

There was a pipelay vessel that was demobilized during kind of the height of the conflict.

在衝突最激烈的時候，有一艘舖管船被解散了。

That vessel will be remobilized here during the first half of this year to complete the work that it had underway.

該船將於今年上半年重新返回這裡，完成正在進行的工作。

So the next leg of growth after those two projects would be a Leviathan expansion.

因此，這兩個項目之後的下一個成長階段將是 Leviathan 的擴張。

We're currently in feed for that.

我們目前正在為此做準備。

It would be a significant growth in production for Leviathan.

這對於 Leviathan 的產量來說將是一個顯著的成長。

Still work to be done but that's a project that would come online towards the end of this decade and continue to step up the production on that asset significantly.

仍有工作要做，但該項目將在本世紀末上線，並繼續大幅提高該資產的產量。

So despite all the activity we've seen in that region, we'll see production up by 25% over the next 2 years and something closer to 50% by 2030.

因此，儘管我們看到該地區的所有活動，但我們仍將看到未來兩年產量增加 25%，到 2030 年產量將接近 50%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jean Ann Salisbury。

The ramp is basically tracking to your expectations or even exceeding them and when you might have any more to share about potential de-bottlenecking potential?

成長速度基本上符合您的預期，甚至超越您的預期，您還能分享更多關於潛在消除瓶頸的潛力嗎？

Jean, you came off mute partly into your question, and you're -- I caught the part about ramp and de-bottlenecking.

吉恩，你在回答問題時有些沉默，我聽到了有關提升和消除瓶頸的部分。

Were you asking about FGP

你問的是 FGP 嗎

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Good.

好的。

Yeah.

是的。

So look, we're a little bit more than a week into this at this point.

你看，到目前為止，我們已經進行了一周多的時間了。

And so it's very early days.

所以現在還為時過早。

But I will tell you, the operations have been very stable.

但我可以告訴你，營運一直非常穩定。

This is a big complex process operation with crude stabilization, some fractionation, obviously, the high-pressure sour gas injection and temperatures and pressures that are significant.

這是一個龐大而複雜的製程操作，涉及原油穩定、部分分餾、顯然還有高壓酸性氣體注入以及重要的溫度和壓力。

And so seeing stable operations is very encouraging.

因此看到穩定的運作是非常令人鼓舞的。

We have seen production step up.

我們看到產量在提高。

The well deliverability has been very strong, and we've completed all that work last year, but the field performance has met or exceeded expectations.

油井的產能非常高，我們去年已經完成了所有工作，但油田的表現已經達到或超過了預期。

And we feel good about what we see to this point in terms of stable and reliable operations.

就穩定可靠的營運而言，我們對目前的狀況感到很滿意。

We'll step things up gradually to be sure that we maintain that stability and reliability.

我們將逐步加強措施以確保維持穩定性和可靠性。

We still have very significant exclusion zones in place, for instance, to minimize the number of people that are in a plant that is just beginning to operate with the H2S concentrations that we see there.

例如，我們仍然設立了非常重要的禁區，以盡量減少在剛開始運作的工廠中工作的人數，因為那裡的 H2S 濃度很高。

And so it will be methodical and very deliberate in raising the production levels up to full capacity.

因此，我們將有條不紊、非常謹慎地將生產水準提高到滿負荷狀態。

But early indications, I would say, are all positive.

但我想說，早期跡像都是正面的。

And any things we've encountered are well within the range of what would be normal start-up things that you see in a plant like this.

我們所遇到的任何問題都在這樣的工廠中看到的正常啟動範圍內。

So more to follow.

敬請期待。

De-bottlenecking is probably a question for the future.

消除瓶頸可能是未來的一個問題。

We're really focused on getting the most we can out of this plant right now.

我們現在真正關注的是最大限度地利用這家工廠。

And so we'll update you on that.

我們將向您通報最新情況。

I'm certainly on the next quarter call, we'll have a lot to say about performance at FGP.

我當然會在下一季的電話會議上對 FGP 的表現有很多話要說。

Lucas Herrmann, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯‧赫爾曼 (Lucas Herrmann)。

Yeah, thanks Mike, Eimear.

是的，謝謝 Mike、Eimear。

Thanks for the opportunity.

謝謝你的機會。

Really just a point of clarification, Mike.

這確實只是為了澄清一點，麥克。

You talked about the transaction with Wheatstone, or around Wheatstone with Woodside.

您談到了與惠斯通的交易，或者惠斯通與伍德賽德的交易。

You mentioned that -- you talked about better positioned to monetize.

您曾提到—您談到了更好的獲利定位。

When you talk monetize, do you mean monetize the resource that you have?

當您談到貨幣化時，您是指將您擁有的資源貨幣化嗎？

Or do you also imply monetize the facility I look to take capital out of it in some way with a potential insurance pension fund?

或者您是否還暗示將我希望透過某種方式從中提取資本的設施貨幣化，並利用潛在的保險退休基金？

And if I might just ask one other question.

我可以再問一個問題。

In essence, when you talk about returns on the power business, do you think about returns volatility adjusted or naked, (inaudible) of a better phrase?

本質上，當您談論電力業務的回報時，您是否考慮過調整波動性後的回報或裸回報（聽不清楚）？

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Lucas.

謝謝，盧卡斯。

Look, on Wheatstone, we're really talking about monetizing resource over time.

你看，在惠斯通，我們實際上談論的是隨著時間的推移資源的貨幣化。

And we're going to acquire not only Woodside's interest in the Wheatstone project, but also in Julimar Brunello, and we'll hand over to them our interest in Northwest shelf and some other smaller related things.

我們不僅要收購伍德賽德在惠斯通項目中的權益，還要收購他在朱利瑪布魯內洛項目中的權益，而且我們還會將我們在西北大陸架和其他一些較小相關項目中的權益移交給他們。

We've got high expectations for the Carnarvon Basin for many decades to come.

我們對卡那封盆地未來幾十年的發展寄予厚望。

We've had a strong exploration track record out there.

我們在那裡擁有豐富的勘探經驗。

We've got a tremendous amount of resource and optimizing that resource through both Wheatstone and Gorgon in a way that's economic, that keeps the plants full, that's good for Australia, good for customers, is important, and this gives us more control over that and a bigger stake in that.

我們擁有大量的資源，並透過 Wheatstone 和 Gorgon 以經濟的方式優化這些資源，使植物保持飽滿，這對澳洲有利，對客戶有利，這很重要，這讓我們能夠更好地控制這些資源並擁有更大的利益。

And so that's really the primary driver.

所以這確實是主要驅動因素。

We're not contemplating bringing in a pension fund or anything like that to sell down our position there.

我們並沒有考慮引入退休基金或類似的東西來出售我們在那裡的持股。

The second question or the second part of your question was about returns in power, yeah.

第二個問題或你問題的第二部分是關於權力的回報，是的。

Yeah, look, we have a volatility in a our oil and gas business.

是的，我們的石油和天然氣業務存在波動。

We have a volatile refining and marketing business.

我們的煉油和行銷業務波動很大。

We would look to have put in place PPAs that work for customers and work for us.

我們希望制定對客戶和我們都有利的電力購買協議 (PPA)。

And as a large natural gas producer we obviously have natural gas supply.

作為大型天然氣生產商，我們顯然擁有天然氣供應。

We've got natural gas commercial capability across the value chain.

我們擁有涵蓋整個價值鏈的天然氣商業能力。

And so we can use that to help manage exposure and volatility for our investment potentially for customers if that's what they're looking for.

因此，如果客戶需要的話，我們可以利用它來幫助客戶管理投資的風險和波動。

But it's very similar to how we encounter volatility in other aspects of our business, and we'll look at it in a way that is consistent with how we look at other things that have associated volatility.

但這與我們在業務的其他方面遇到的波動非常相似，我們將以與看待與波動相關的其他事物一致的方式來看待它。

Thanks, Lucas.

謝謝，盧卡斯。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·西爾弗斯坦（Josh Silverstein）。

Hey, good morning guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Maybe switching to the refining and chems business.

也許會轉向煉油和化學品業務。

We're clearly in a weak price environment and margin environment right now.

我們現在顯然處於疲軟的價格環境和利潤環境。

Other than maybe improving the product slate and doing some cost reductions, are there things that you guys do (inaudible) to improve your leverage to the recovery?

除了可能改進產品結構和降低成本之外，你們還做了什麼事情（聽不清楚）來提高對經濟復甦的槓桿？

Maybe bring forward some projects or turnaround, (inaudible) some other assets that might be initially challenged?

也許可以提前提出一些項目或扭轉局面，（聽不清楚）一些其他可能最初受到挑戰的資產？

Anything like that?

有類似的事情嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Having spent a good part of my career in that business, margin pressure is a familiar friend, I guess, I would say.

我職業生涯的很大一部分時間都是在這個行業中度過的，所以我想說，利潤壓力是我熟悉的朋友。

And it does spark innovation and there's nothing like feeling kind of the sharp end of the stick to make people continue to find ways to find a little more flexibility in your feedstocks, improve your operating reliability, your cost structure.

它確實激發了創新，沒有什麼比感受到棍棒的尖端更能促使人們繼續尋找方法，在原料中找到更多的靈活性，提高營運可靠性和成本結構。

Make sure you've got all the right handles for product optimization into the market via different products via different channels to go to market and customer relationships and the like.

確保你已掌握所有正確的產品優化方法，透過不同的產品、不同的管道進入市場並建立客戶關係等。

And so I think we'll be looking to do all of those things, but we should be looking to do all those things when margins are good.

因此我認為我們會考慮做所有這些事情，但我們應該在利潤率良好時考慮做所有這些事情。

And we certainly are looking to do those when margins are difficult.

當利潤困難的時候，我們一定會考慮這麼做。

I would point to the fact that we're now increased capacity to run light oil at our Pasadena refinery.

我想指出的是，我們帕薩迪納煉油廠的輕質油生產能力現在已經提高。

This is a good example of that.

這是一個很好的例子。

So we can integrate some of our upstream production that we may get a better netback on it versus exports, for instance.

因此，我們可以整合一些上游生產，這樣我們就可以獲得比出口更好的淨回報。

Will produce products that can move out into our marketing channels where we might otherwise be reliant on others to supply some of our market needs.

將生產可進入我們行銷管道的產品，否則我們可能會依賴其他產品來滿足我們的部分市場需求。

And we can integrate intermediates with the Pascagoula refinery.

我們可以將中間體與帕斯卡古拉煉油廠整合在一起。

We can optimize during turnarounds and storms and other market conditions by thinking of those two as a system.

透過將這兩者視為一個系統，我們可以在轉型、風暴和其他市場條件下進行最佳化。

And so we'll continue to look for opportunities like that, which are capital efficient ways to increase your flexibility and ability to control your own margin outcomes in the downstream.

因此，我們將繼續尋找這樣的機會，以資本有效的方式提高您的靈活性和控制下游利潤結果的能力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Paul Sankey, Sankey Research.

保羅‧桑基 (Paul Sankey)，桑基研究公司。

Hi Mike.

嗨，麥克。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Nice to hear you back on the call.

很高興能再次接到您的電話。

Paul.

保羅。

It's a pleasure to be back, Mike.

很高興回來，麥克。

I had a very quick one just about potential corporate actions.

我很快談了一下潛在的公司行動。

But the big idea was I was looking at your CapEx and that 14% to 16% range.

但主要的想法是，我正在研究你的資本支出和 14% 到 16% 的範圍。

I was just wondering what the chances are if you getting towards the lower end of that range because it strikes me that you could differentiate yourselves with lowering CapEx and falling CapEx over the coming years.

我只是想知道，如果你們接近這個範圍的低端，那麼可能性有多大，因為我認為你們可以在未來幾年透過降低資本支出和下降資本支出來使自己與眾不同。

And further to that, I was wondering, do you think there is potential, for example, for you to cut upstream CapEx once test is completed, how would that work out?

此外，我想知道，您是否認為有可能，例如，一旦測試完成，您就可以削減上游資本支出，這將如何實現？

Secondly, the volatility of your results.

其次，結果的波動性。

I was wondering, you underinvested in refining.

我想知道您在煉油方面的投資是否不足。

Do you think that's been an issue?

您認為這是一個問題嗎？

And then the wildcard was the potential for mega deals, the exact opposite under Trump and whether or not it might be a an idea to go really big as opposed to continuing to sort of try and shrink.

然後，不確定因素就是大型交易的可能性，川普執政時的情況則截然相反，以及是否應該進行大規模交易，而不是繼續嘗試縮小規模。

And then the final element of the CapEx question was if you're doing this AI gas-fired power, does it -- did you cut back -- what are the areas that you're cutting back CapEx that presumably are now less attractive under the Trump guidance such as it is?

然後，資本支出問題的最後一個要素是，如果你在做這種人工智慧燃氣發電，你是否削減了資本支出？普的指導意見是這樣的嗎？

All right.

好的。

Well, you have clearly pipped Doug Leggett in terms of getting the most questions into one.

好吧，從提出最多問題這一點來看，你顯然勝過了 Doug Leggett。

So making up for some lost time, Paul.

所以，保羅，要彌補一些失去的時間。

Okay.

好的。

So let me tick through those quickly. 14 to 16 as the range.

所以讓我快速地瀏覽一次。 14至16為範圍。

Last year, we were at the top end of the range.

去年，我們的業績處於業界領先地位。

This year, we're at the middle end of the range.

今年，我們處於該範圍的中間端。

Could we be at the low end of the range?

我們可能處於該範圍的低端嗎？

We could.

我們可以。

And we'll make that call based on the opportunity set, the competitiveness of those, our view on the market outlook.

我們將根據機會集、競爭力以及對市場前景的看法做出決定。

The real message here is, I think you can depend on us to remain very disciplined, and we're getting more for every dollar we're spending.

這裡真正的訊息是，我認為你可以依靠我們保持高度自律，而且我們花費的每一美元都會獲得更多的回報。

I mentioned earlier, the Permian is growing with 40% fewer rigs and our plans contain just a few years ago.

我之前提到過，二疊紀盆地正在發展，但鑽井數量卻減少了 40%，而我們的計畫僅在幾年前就已製定。

We're growing at a 7% rate last year, 6% CAGR over the next couple of years.

去年我們的成長率為 7%，未來幾年的複合年增長率為 6%。

The infamous porcupine charts show that at the time we were spending a lot more capital, we weren't delivering that kind of growth.

臭名昭著的豪豬圖顯示，當時我們花了更多的資本，但並沒有實現那種成長。

So we become more capital efficient.

因此我們的資本效率較高。

And we have to continue to look for ways to deliver energy at lower and lower capital investments.

我們必須繼續尋找以越來越低的資本投資來提供能源的方法。

Are we underweight in refining?

我們的煉油業務是否不足？

We've always been more skewed to the upstream.

我們一直以來都更偏向上游。

If there are -- if the right opportunity were to come along in downstream or in chemicals, you'd always look at it.

如果有—如果下游或化學品領域出現合適的機會，你會一直關注它。

In those segments, one of the ways you de-risk your position is by not overpaying.

在這些領域，降低風險的方法之一就是不要支付過高的價格。

And so we're always attuned to opportunities out there.

因此我們總是關注外面的機會。

It would have to fit our criteria, which really are assets that have scale, flexibility can operate very efficiently would integrate into good market positions.

它必須符合我們的標準，即真正具有規模、靈活性、能夠高效運作的資產，並融入良好的市場地位。

So there's a set of criteria that we would apply to that.

因此，我們會採用一套標準來解決這個問題。

I'm not going to speculate on mega deals, whatever that means.

我不會對大型交易進行猜測，不管這意味著什麼。

And then look, the AI investment is -- the power for AI is going to fit into the portfolio like other things.

然後看看，人工智慧投資——人工智慧的力量將像其他東西一樣融入投資組合。

The CapEx on that is manageable for sure.

這方面的資本支出絕對是可控制的。

And it's spread out over time.

並且它會隨著時間的推移而擴散。

It's not 100% equity on our part.

就我們而言，這並不是 100% 的股權。

And it'll have to deliver competitive returns.

而且它必須提供有競爭力的回報。

And so will it displace something?

那麼它會取代某些東西嗎？

Will it cause something else to maybe be pushed out in time?

這是否會導致其他事情隨著時間的推移而被推遲？

How we prioritize those things as a part of running our business each and every day.

我們如何將這些事情作為我們日常業務運營的一部分進行優先排序。

And so we've got a queue of investments that we're constantly working on.

因此，我們有一系列正在持續努力的投資。

We should not fund all of them.

我們不應該為所有這些人提供資金。

We should only fund the best of them.

我們應該只資助其中最優秀的人。

And this will go into that same process and be optimized within the overall set of investments that we're advancing.

這將進入同一流程，並在我們正在推進的整體投資中進行最佳化。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nitin Kumar, Mizuho.

瑞穗的尼廷庫馬爾 (Nitin Kumar)。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

And thanks Mike for taking my questions.

感謝 Mike 回答我的問題。

Congrats on starting

恭喜開始

[TCO].

[總體擁有成本]

I just want to touch on the cost -- structural cost reductions you've talked about.

我只想談談您談到的成本——結構性成本削減。

Could you break that $2 billion to $3 billion between your upstream and downstream a little bit?

您能否將這 20 億到 30 億美元稍微分配給上游和下游？

You were talking earlier about the margin pressure in downstream.

您之前談到下游的利潤壓力。

And then as I look at Slide 10, and the trajectory of those savings, it seems like you're a little bit weighted towards 2025.

然後，當我看投影片 10 和這些節省的軌跡時，似乎你有點偏向 2025 年。

So are they more related to asset sales?

那麼它們是否與資產出售更相關？

Or are there other things kind of in the remaining businesses that are helping?

或者剩餘業務還有其他事情可以幫忙嗎？

Hi, Nitin, I'll take this one.

你好，Nitin，我想要這個。

Yes, the $2 billion to $3 billion structural cost reductions, you'll see them across all segments.

是的，20億到30億美元的結構性成本削減，你會在各個領域看到。

So let me kind of break down and the focus areas for you a little bit.

所以讓我稍微為您分解一下重點領域。

The first focus areas around asset sales.

第一個重點關注領域是資產出售。

So you're right, we'd expect to see some reductions this year given the asset sales last year in Canada, for example.

所以你說得對，考慮到去年加拿大的資產出售，我們預計今年的資產出售幅度會減少。

So we will see some of those portfolio impacts in 2025.

因此，我們將在 2025 年看到這些投資組合的一些影響。

And the second focus area that we have looks at kind of changing how we work.

我們的第二個重點領域是研究改變我們的工作方式。

So we're looking at standardizing work that we do and then thinking differently about where we do that work.

因此，我們正在研究如何標準化我們所做的工作，然後以不同的方式思考我們在哪裡進行這項工作。

And that will impact the downstream segment that will impact the upstream segment.

這會影響下游部分，進而影響上游部分。

So we're looking across all the businesses.

因此我們正在審視所有的業務。

I mean an example there would be how we design [whales] for certain asset classes.

我的意思是，舉個例子，我們如何為某些資產類別設計[鯨魚]。

Is there a way to do that more in a more standardized fashion and a more centralized fashion.

有沒有辦法以更標準化、更集中的方式來做到這一點？

So that's the second focus area and work is underway on that.

這是第二個重點領域，該領域的工作正在進行中。

So I think you should expect to see savings come through '25 and '26.

因此我認為你應該能看到在'25 和'26 年實現儲蓄。

And then the last one, maybe the one that I'm very excited about is the technology focus area.

最後一個，也許最令我興奮的是技術重點領域。

So this is where we're looking at using technology to do work completely differently.

所以，我們正在考慮利用科技以完全不同的方式來進行工作。

So we mentioned in the presentation, the robotics example, but there's a lot -- a long list of examples that we're deploying today, whether that's drones to inspect our facilities, digital twins to plan our turnarounds.

我們在演示中提到了機器人的例子，但今天我們正在部署的例子還有很多，無論是用於檢查我們設施的無人機，還是用於規劃我們週轉的數位孿生。

AI to look at reducing cycle times for exploration subsurface work.

人工智慧正在研究如何縮短地下勘探工作的周期時間。

The technology focus area will also deliver savings.

技術重點領域也將帶來節約。

So in terms of the profile, 2025, between $1.5 billion to $2 billion.

因此就概況而言，到 2025 年，收入將在 15 億美元到 20 億美元之間。

And then '26, you should see the $2 billion to $3 billion come off then.

然後到 26 年，你會看到 20 億到 30 億美元減少。

So in total, $2 billion to $3 billion structural costs of the 2024 base.

因此總的來說，2024 年基礎的結構成本為 20 億至 30 億美元。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Bob Brackett, Bernstein research.

鮑伯‧布拉克特（Bob Brackett），伯恩斯坦研究公司。

Good morning.

早安.

Question about the Permian.

關於二疊紀的問題。

Clearly, you've laid out a disciplined model there to release cash flow, but you're uniquely positioned in that you have JV partners plus the royalty interest.

顯然，您已經制定了一個嚴謹的模型來釋放現金流，但您擁有獨特的優勢，因為您擁有合資夥伴和特許權使用費權益。

You probably have the best view of the landscape.

您或許擁有最好的景觀。

What are you seeing there in terms of discipline from the other operators?

您從其他操作員的紀律方面看到什麼？

And is it a trend that's going to continue?

這個趨勢會持續下去嗎？

Yeah, Bob.

是的，鮑伯。

It's interesting.

這很有趣。

Because of our large mineral rights position, we not only get the financial advantage that accrues through that, but we also get the information advantage.

由於我們擁有大量礦產權，我們不僅獲得了由此產生的財務優勢，而且還獲得了資訊優勢。

We have a position in one out of every five wells in the Permian.

二疊紀盆地中每五口井就有一口是我們的。

And so we see a lot -- we see a lot from our [NOJV] partners, and most of that activity is really through five good companies, companies that you all know and cover.

因此，我們從我們的 [NOJV] 合作夥伴那裡看到了很多，其中大部分活動實際上都是透過五家優秀的公司，你們都知道和報道的公司。

And so you've got visibility into what they're doing via what they say we do from seeing AFEs for funding and the like.

因此，您可以透過他們所說的我們透過查看 AFE 的融資情況等來了解他們在做什麼。

And I would say people are sticking with their plans.

我想說人們正在堅持他們的計劃。

And I think everybody has seen the kinds of things we are, which is productivity and efficiency gains and continuing to look for innovation and lateral length and completion techniques and proppant loading and proppant to water ratios and all the rest of it.

我想大家都已經看到了我們所做的事情，即提高生產力和效率，並繼續尋求創新、水平長度和完井技術、支撐劑裝載和支撐劑與水的比率等等。

And I don't see anybody that is kind of heading back to what the industry was doing a decade ago, which is kind of throwing all the cash right back into growth and stepping away from what they've now established, which is a more balanced return-oriented strategy.

我沒有看到任何人回到十年前這個行業的做法，即將所有現金投入成長，遠離他們現在已經建立的，更平衡的回報導向策略。

And so I can't speak for others.

所以我不能代表其他人說話。

You'll have to ask that question specifically to other companies.

您必須專門向其他公司詢問這個問題。

But at least what I see would be a continuation of what we have been seeing is the way I would describe it.

但至少我所看到的是我們已經看到的情況的延續，這就是我所描述的。

Neal Dingmann, Truist.

Neal Dingmann，Truist。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for getting me in guys.

謝謝你們讓我加入。

My question really, Mike, is just on the downstream segment.

麥克，我的問題其實只是關於下游部分。

It's a little bit weak last quarter sequentially and year-over-year.

與上個季度相比，其表現比上個季度略弱。

And I'm just wondering, was that more driven by -- I know you had more turnarounds that you talked about having about 25% less of those this year?

我只是想知道，這是否更多是由——我知道你們遇到了更多的扭轉局面的情況，而你們之前說過，今年的扭轉局面的情況減少了約 25%？

Or is it just continue to see more, I'd call it, macro pressures there?

還是只是繼續看到更多，我稱之為宏觀壓力？

It was a weak fourth quarter.

第四季表現疲軟。

There's no doubt about it.

毫無疑問。

Margins were off.

利潤率下降了。

There was some turnaround effects.

出現了一些扭轉局面的效果。

We also had some significant inventory accounting effects that rolled through the downstream segment and some of the impairments that we took charges for hit downstream on a proportional basis, you see the much more than you would see anything in the upstream.

我們也對下​​游部門產生了一些重大的庫存核算影響，而且我們收取的一些減損費用按比例影響了下游部門，你會看到比上游部門看到的要多得多。

And so I'm not going to call it the perfect storm, but it was a quarter where there were a lot of things that all went in one direction, and it was a negative direction.

因此，我不會稱之為完美風暴，但這是一個很多事情都朝著一個方向發展的季度，而且是負面的方向。

And so can't affect margins.

所以不會影響利潤。

We can certainly affect turnarounds you've already seen that next year is a lighter turnaround schedule.

我們當然可以影響您已經看到的周轉，明年的周轉計畫會更加輕鬆。

The impairments or one-off charges and the inventory accounting is a function of LIFO layers and prices and inventory levels is a complex equation.

減損或一次性費用和庫存會計是後進先出法層的函數，價格和庫存水準是一個複雜的方程式。

So I wouldn't assume there's anything structurally in that business that says it's deteriorating.

因此，我不認為該業務在結構上有任何惡化的跡象。

But you have these quarters every now and again in that business.

但從事這一行業時常會遇到這種情況。

Thanks, Neil.

謝謝，尼爾。

Geoff Jay, Daniel Energy Partners.

傑夫·傑伊（Geoff Jay），丹尼爾能源合作夥伴。

Hi.

你好。

Hey Mike.

嘿，麥克。

I was just kind of curious about Argentina.

我只是對阿根廷有點好奇。

I mean, clearly, with Malayan office, it seems like a much friendlier place to do business.

我的意思是，顯然，有了馬來亞辦事處，這裡似乎是一個更友善的經商之地。

You mentioned it earlier.

您之前提到過。

How do you see the politics and the opportunity set changing down there?

您如何看待那裡的政治和機會的變化？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks for asking.

謝謝你的提問。

It's an area that I am encouraged by.

這是一個令我感到鼓舞的領域。

We've got a very strong position in the (inaudible) both in (inaudible) in the South and (inaudible) the North.

我們在（聽不清楚）南方和（聽不清楚）北方都佔有非常強勢的地位。

The geology works very well.

地質狀況非常好。

We're very pleased with what we've seen, and we've had a, I would say, a moderate pace of activity.

我們對所見所聞感到非常滿意，而且我想說，我們的活動節奏相當適中。

More history down in the South at (inaudible), but encouraging over the last couple of years at [Trapial] in the north.

南部 (聽不清楚) 的歷史悠久，但北部 [Trapial] 在過去幾年中取得了令人鼓舞的成績。

I'm also really pleased to see the situation of the country improving.

我也很高興看到國家的情況不斷改善。

We've seen inflation come down significantly.

我們看到通貨膨脹大幅下降。

The banking system has stabilized.

銀行系統已經穩定。

There's progress towards reducing and removing capital controls, (inaudible) is a reformer.

在減少和取消資本管制方面取得了進展，（聽不清楚）是一位改革者。

And he's got a serious agenda that would make the country more investable for foreign investors.

他有一個嚴肅的議程，要讓這個國家對外國投資者更具投資價值。

And we're very encouraged by what he says, and we're encouraged by what he's done thus far.

他的言論讓我們深受鼓舞，他迄今所做的事也讓我們備受鼓舞。

I think there's more to come.

我認為接下來還會有更多。

And certainly, he's made great progress thus far.

確實，到目前為止他已經取得了巨大的進步。

So we are hopeful that he'll continue to do so and that we will see an environment that increases our confidence in putting more capital to work there.

因此，我們希望他能繼續這樣做，我們將看到一個能增強我們信心的環境，讓我們有信心在那裡投入更多的資本。

So we're engaged on the ground.

因此我們在實地參與了行動。

And right now, we're taking a look at a mid-stream opportunity on pipeline that could help us with exports to a good deepwater export terminal.

目前，我們正在尋找管道中游機會，這可以幫助我們出口到良好的深水出口碼頭。

So we'll continue to update you on developments there.

因此，我們將繼續向您通報那裡的發展。

But you're right.

但你是對的。

And we've seen encouraging signs, I guess, in Argentina in years gone by, and then things kind of move the other direction.

我想，我們在過去幾年裡在阿根廷看到了令人鼓舞的跡象，然後事情卻朝著另一個方向發展。

So we'll be watching to see if this seems to be a more durable set of reforms and that would certainly be an important signpost for us.

因此，我們將拭​​目以待，看看這是否是一套更持久的改革，這對我們來說無疑是一個重要的路標。

Thanks for the question, Jeff.

謝謝你的提問，傑夫。

I would like to thank everyone for your time today.

我想感謝大家今天的寶貴時間。

We appreciate your interest in Chevron and your participation today's call.

我們感謝您對雪佛龍的關注以及您參加今天的電話會議。

Please stay safe and healthy, Katie.

請保持安全和健康，凱蒂。

Back to you.

回到你身邊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes Chevron's fourth quarter, 2024 earnings conference call.

雪佛龍 2024 年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。