雪佛龍 (CVX) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to Chevron's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference call over to the Head of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Jake Spiering. Please go ahead.

早安.我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。歡迎參加雪佛龍公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音。現在我將把電話會議交給雪佛龍公司投資者關係主管傑克‧斯皮林先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Katie. Welcome to Chevron's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. I'm Jake Spiering, Head of Investor Relations. On the call with me today is our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth; and our Vice President and CFO, Eimear Bonner. We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron's website.

謝謝你，凱蒂。歡迎參加雪佛龍公司2025年第三季財報電話會議和網路直播。我是投資人關係主管傑克‧斯皮林。今天和我一起通話的是我們的董事長兼執行長麥克沃斯，以及我們的副總裁兼財務長艾米爾邦納。我們將參考雪佛龍公司網站上提供的幻燈片和準備好的演講稿。

Before we begin, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to this presentation. Please review the cautionary statement and additional information presented on Slide 2.

在開始之前，請注意，本次簡報包含估計、預測和其他前瞻性陳述。本簡報的附錄中提供了非GAAP指標的調節表。請查看投影片 2 上的警告聲明和補充資訊。

Now I'll turn it over to Mike.

現在我把麥克風交給麥克。

Okay. Thanks, Jake. In the third quarter, Chevron delivered record production and strong cash generation, supporting sustained shareholder distributions. The period was marked by several key milestones as we execute our plan for resilient and industry-leading free cash flow growth. Worldwide production exceeded 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by strong growth and high reliability across the upstream.

好的。謝謝你，傑克。第三季度，雪佛龍公司實現了創紀錄的產量和強勁的現金流，從而支持了持續的股東分紅。在此期間，我們實現了幾個重要的里程碑，因為我們正在執行一項旨在實現穩健且行業領先的自由現金流增長的計劃。受上游強勁成長和高可靠性的推動，全球石油日產量超過 400 萬桶油當量。

Hess integration is on track. Synergies are being realized and asset performance has exceeded expectations. The Ballymore tieback project reached design capacity ahead of schedule, taking us another step closer to delivering over 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the Gulf of America. And we achieved first production at the ACES green hydrogen project in Utah.

Hess的整合工作進展順利。綜效正在逐步實現，資產表現超乎預期。Ballymore 回接計畫提前達到設計產能，讓我們離在美洲灣每天輸送超過 30 萬桶油當量的目標又更近了一步。我們在猶他州的ACES綠色氫能計畫實現了首次生產。

Earlier this month, a fire occurred at our El Segundo refinery. Importantly, there were no serious injuries and we continue to meet our supply commitments. We're cooperating with all regulatory agencies and have our own investigation underway. Our top priority at Chevron is always the safety of our people and the communities we work with.

本月初，我們位於埃爾塞貢多的煉油廠發生火災。重要的是，沒有人員嚴重受傷，我們也繼續履行我們的供應承諾。我們正在與所有監管機構合作，並且我們自己的調查也在進行中。雪佛龍的首要任務始終是保障員工和我們社區的安全。

Now I'll turn it over to Eimear to go over the financials.

現在我把麥克風交給艾米爾，讓她來審核財務資料。

Thanks, Mike. For the third quarter, Chevron reported earnings of $3.5 billion or $1.82 per share. Adjusted earnings were $3.6 billion or $1.85 per share. Included in the quarter were special items totaling $235 million. These included severance and other hedge related transaction costs and were partially offset by the fair value measurement of Hess shares held at the time of closing. Foreign currency effects increased earnings by $147 million.

謝謝你，麥克。雪佛龍公司第三季獲利35億美元，合每股1.82美元。調整後收益為36億美元，即每股1.85美元。本季包含總額為 2.35 億美元的特殊項目。這些費用包括遣散費和其他對沖相關交易成本，部分被交割時持有的赫斯股份的公允價值計量所抵銷。外匯波動使收益增加了1.47億美元。

Organic CapEx was $4.4 billion for the quarter. We expect full year organic CapEx inclusive of Hess to be $17 billion to $17.5 billion in line with guidance. Adjusted third quarter earnings were up $575 million versus last quarter. Adjusted upstream earnings increased due to higher liftings and were partially offset by higher DD&A. Legacy Hess assets contributed $150 million in the quarter. Adjusted downstream earnings increased due to higher refining volumes, improved chemical margins and favorable timing and OpEx results.

本季有機資本支出為44億美元。我們預計全年有機資本支出（包括 Hess 的收購）將達到 170 億美元至 175 億美元，與預期一致。經調整後的第三季收益比上一季增加了5.75億美元。調整後的上游收益因提貨量增加而增長，但部分被更高的折舊和攤銷所抵消。Hess 原有資產在本季貢獻了 1.5 億美元。經調整後的下游收益成長，主要得益於煉油量增加、化工利潤率提高以及有利的時機和營運支出結果。

Other segment earnings decreased due to higher interest expense, corporate charges and unfavorable tax effects. Adjusted third quarter earnings were down $900 million versus last year. Adjusted upstream earnings decreased due to lower liquids realizations and higher DD&A from increased production at TCO, the Gulf of America and the Permian. The increase in OpEx and DD&A includes the impacts of the Hess acquisition.

其他業務部門的利潤因利息支出、公司費用和不利的稅收影響而下降。經調整後的第三季財報比去年同期下降了9億美元。由於 TCO、美洲灣和二疊紀盆地產量增加導致液體實現量下降和折舊及攤銷增加，上游調整後收益下降。營運支出和折舊攤提增加包括赫斯收購的影響。

Adjusted downstream earnings were higher primarily due to improving refining margins. The other segment was down mainly due to higher interest expense and other corporate charges. These results include benefits from our structural cost savings program. Our new operating model is live, and we've captured approximately $1.5 billion in annual run-rate savings so far, and expect to see further benefits in the fourth quarter.

調整後的下游收益成長主要歸功於煉油利潤率的提高。另一部分業務下滑主要是因為利息支出和其他公司費用增加所致。這些成果包括我們結構性成本節約計畫帶來的效益。我們的新營運模式已經上線，到目前為止，我們每年已節省約 15 億美元，預計第四季將獲得更多收益。

Cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was $9.9 billion in the quarter. This represents a 20% increase compared to the same quarter last year when crude prices were $10 higher. Adjusted free cash flow, which includes equity affiliate loans and asset sales was $7 billion, and included the first loan repayment from TCO of $1 billion.

本季經營活動產生的現金流量（不包括營運資金）為 99 億美元。與去年同期相比，這相當於成長了 20%，當時原油價格比去年同期高出 10 美元。經調整後的自由現金流（包括股權附屬貸款和資產出售）為 70 億美元，其中包括 TCO 的首筆 10 億美元貸款償還。

Cash returned to shareholders totaled $6 billion and was more than covered on adjusted free cash flow. We expect strong cash generation to continue even in a lower price environment, underpinned by the increased capital efficiency and growth in high-margin assets.

返還給股東的現金總額為 60 億美元，經調整後的自由現金流足以涵蓋這部分金額。我們預計，即使在價格較低的環境下，在資本效率提高和高利潤資產成長的支撐下，強勁的現金流仍將持續。

Third quarter oil equivalent production was up 690,000 barrels per day from last quarter, primarily due to legacy Hess production. In addition, strong execution drove production growth in the Permian, the Gulf of America and TCO. We expect full year average production growth at the top end of our 6% to 8% guidance range, excluding legacy Hess.

第三季石油當量產量比上一季增加了每天 69 萬桶，這主要是由於赫斯公司遺留的生產活動。此外，強而有力的執行推動了二疊紀盆地、美洲灣和TCO的產量成長。我們預計全年平均產量成長將達到我們 6% 至 8% 指導範圍的上限（不包括原 Hess 公司）。

Back to Mike to wrap it up.

讓麥克來總結一下。

Okay. Thanks, Eimear. Before we close, I'd like to say a few words of remembrance in honour of Chevron Board member, Dr. Alice Gast, who passed away earlier this week. In 1978, as a 20-year-old sophomore at Stanford, Alice served an internship at Chevron's Richmond Refinery.

好的。謝謝你，艾米爾。在結束之前，我想說幾句悼詞，緬懷本週早些時候去世的雪佛龍公司董事會成員愛麗絲·加斯特博士。1978 年，20 歲的愛麗絲是史丹佛大學的大二學生，她在雪佛龍公司的里士滿煉油廠實習。

She went on to earn her PhD in chemical engineering at Princeton. Her career came full circle, 34 years later when she joined the Chevron's Board in 2012. Alice was an internationally known scholar and researcher who served as President of both Lehigh University and Imperial College London.

後來，她在普林斯頓大學獲得了化學工程博士學位。34 年後，她的職業生涯畫上了一個圓滿的句號，2012 年她加入了雪佛龍公司的董事會。愛麗絲是一位國際知名的學者和研究員，曾擔任利哈伊大學和倫敦帝國學院的校長。

She encouraged us to stay curious, value teamwork and believe the best solutions come from listening to one another. Her legacy lives on in the questions we ask, the way we work together and the respect we show one another.

她鼓勵我們保持好奇心，重視團隊合作，並相信最好的解決方案來自於彼此傾聽。她的遺志將透過我們提出的問題、我們合作的方式以及我們彼此展現的尊重而傳承下去。

And lastly, I have a final reminder that we're holding our Investor Day on November 12. You can find details and instructions for the webcast on chevron.com. We look forward to sharing our outlook to 2030 and highlighting our diversified and resilient portfolio. You can expect to hear about a consistent, disciplined and stronger Chevron. We hope you can join us.

最後，我還要提醒大家，我們的投資者日將於11月12日舉行。您可以在chevron.com網站上找到網路直播的詳細資訊和說明。我們期待與您分享我們對2030年的展望，並重點介紹我們多元化且具有韌性的投資組合。您可以期待聽到有關雪佛龍公司持續發展、紀律嚴明且實力更強的消息。我們希望您能加入我們。

Over to you, Jake.

接下來就看你的了，傑克。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Additional guidance can be found in the appendix of this presentation as well as the slides and other information posted on chevron.com.

我們的發言稿到此結束。更多指導資訊可參閱本簡報的附錄以及 chevron.com 上發布的幻燈片和其他資訊。

We are now ready to take your questions. We ask that you limit yourself to just 1 question. We will do our best to get all of your questions answered. Katie, please open the lines.

現在我們可以回答你們的問題了。請您只提一個問題。我們會盡力解答您的所有問題。凱蒂，請接通電話。

(Operator Instructions) Sam Margolin, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）薩姆·馬戈林，富國銀行。

I expect we'll probably reserve kind of strategic and long-dated questions for the November day. So we'll stick to the quarter maybe in the Permian, good production result there. Capital efficiency has been kind of an ongoing talking point and a distinction between co-op and NOJV acreage. Can you elaborate a little bit on what drove the Permian result? And if you're seeing some better results in the field? Or if it's just part of a broader kind of industry trend of efficiency gains?

我估計我們會把一些具有戰略意義和長遠影響的問題留到11月再討論。所以，我們可能會繼續關註二疊紀盆地的季度業績，那裡的生產結果不錯。資本效率一直是人們持續討論的議題，也是合作社土地和非合作社土地之間的差異。能否詳細說明促成二疊紀盆地研究結果的原因？如果你在實際應用上看到了更好的結果呢？或者，這僅僅是產業效率提升這一更廣泛的趨勢的一部分？

Yes. So look, we had a strong quarter. We're 60,000 barrels a day over the 1 million-barrel where we said we kind of move towards a plateau. It really highlights the efficiency gains. The team continues to deliver.

是的。所以你看，我們這個季度業績表現強勁。我們目前的日產量比先前預測的100萬桶高出6萬桶，我們之前說過，達到100萬桶之後，產量就會趨於穩定。它確實突顯了效率的提升。團隊持續取得佳績。

We've got no change to our plans to moderate growth and focus on cash generation. We're focused on executing the program as efficiently as possible. Production is an outcome there. It will move up and down. I would expect we're going to see some quarters where it's back down a little bit based on when we're popping wells.

我們放緩成長速度、專注於現金流的計畫沒有改變。我們專注於盡可能有效率地執行該計劃。生產是那裡的結果。它會上下移動。我預計根據我們開井的時間，某些季度的價格會略有回落。

But we've been able to continue to deliver strong performance with fewer rigs, fewer completion spreads, a lot of progress on little things including technology. And I think you'll hear more about this from Mark when we get together at Investor Day. So performance across the portfolio. Co-op, (inaudible) royalty has been strong, and we expect to move into 2026 with good momentum.

但是，我們能夠以更少的鑽機、更少的完井作業規模，以及在包括技術在內的許多細節方面取得的進步，繼續保持強勁的業績。我想在投資者日活動上，你會從馬克那裡聽到更多關於這方面的內容。因此，整體投資組合的表現如何？合作社（聽不清楚）版稅收入一直很強勁，我們預計到 2026 年將保持良好的發展勢頭。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

德文·麥克德莫特，摩根士丹利。

Mike, I wanted to ask you about Kazakhstan. My understanding is you had the chance to meet with the President alongside the UN back in September. So I was wondering if you just give us a little bit of an update on how some of the discussions around the concession extension are going, where we are in that process? Any broader color on the dialogue would be helpful.

麥克，我想問你關於哈薩克的事情。據我了解，您曾在九月有機會與聯合國代表一起會見了總統。所以我想請您簡要介紹一下關於特許經營權延期的一些討論進展情況，以及我們目前處於哪個階段？如果能對對話進行更全面的描述就更好了。

Yes. So I did see the President in New York during the UN General Assembly. It's actually the second time that I've seen him this year. And we had a good conversation about where we are. It was grounded in the fact that TCO has created enormous value for all stakeholders over the last 32 years as a stand-alone entity that has had strong partnership and performance with the Republic.

是的。所以，我在紐約聯合國大會期間見到了總統。這其實是我今年第二次見到他了。我們進行了一次很好的談話，討論了我們目前的處境。其依據是，在過去的 32 年裡，TCO 作為一個獨立實體，與共和國建立了牢固的夥伴關係和良好的業績，為所有利益相關者創造了巨大的價值。

Tengiz is performing well. You saw it this quarter. It's very visible in our results. It's bringing significant value both to shareholders of TCO and to the Republic. And we are off to what I would characterize as a good start to the negotiations.

騰吉茲表現出色。本季你已經看到了。這一點在我們的結果中非常明顯。它為TCO的股東和共和國都帶來了巨大的價值。我認為談判開局良好。

These are going to take some time. It's a complex contract. It's important to the Republic and it's important, obviously, to the shareholders. I wouldn't expect quarterly updates on this just due to the nature of the work. We've got technical teams engaged.

這些都需要一些時間。這是一份複雜的合約。這對共和國很重要，對股東來說也同樣重要，這一點顯而易見。鑑於這項工作的性質，我不指望每季都能收到相關更新。我們已經安排了技術團隊參與。

We've got commercial teams engaged. And so the overall structure and governance and negotiations has been defined and they're beginning, but we really are just at the beginning. And so we'll update you from time to time as there is something more for us to say.

我們已經安排了商務團隊參與。因此，整體結構、治理和談判已經確定，並且已經開始，但我們實際上還只是處於起步階段。因此，如果有更多內容要分享，我們會不時更新資訊。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

尼爾梅塔，高盛集團。

Just wanted your perspective on the Bakken asset. You've had this under your portfolio here in Bruce's portfolio for a couple of months now. You made some adjustments to the activity plans. So what are some initial observations, thoughts on whether this asset is core? And do you view it as part of a broader Rockies corridor that can compete for capital in the portfolio?

想聽聽您對巴肯油田資產的看法。這隻股票已經在你的投資組合裡，也就是布魯斯的投資組合裡，存放了幾個月了。你對活動計畫做了一些調整。那麼，對於這項資產是否屬於核心資產，您有哪些初步觀察與想法？您是否將其視為落基山脈走廊的一部分，並認為它可以與其他投資項目競爭投資組合中的資本？

Yes. We're excited to add the position to our shale and tight portfolio, has had a long-standing plan to grow it to 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and to maintain that plateau for the foreseeable future. We're at that level now.

是的。我們很高興將該油田納入我們的頁岩油和緻密油投資組合，我們長期以來一直計劃將其產量提升至每天 20 萬桶油當量，並在可預見的未來保持這一水平。我們現在已經達到那個水準了。

We see some opportunities to continue to capture efficiencies from drilling cycle time improvements, the use of longer laterals. So similar to what we've described for the Permian, we're going to look to optimize capital efficiency, operating efficiency. We will bring experiences from other parts of our portfolio to the Bakken. And just as we saw with Noble and PDC, I'm sure we will bring some best practices from Hess' Bakken operation to other parts of our portfolio.

我們看到了一些機會，可以透過縮短鑽井週期、使用更長的水平井來繼續提高效率。因此，與我們先前在二疊紀盆地描述的情況類似，我們將著眼於優化資本效率和營運效率。我們將把在巴肯地區其他業務領域累積的經驗帶到巴肯地區。正如我們在 Noble 和 PDC 身上看到的那樣，我相信我們會將 Hess 在巴肯油田的一些最佳實踐應用到我們投資組合的其他部分。

We're in no hurry to make a decision on the longer-term role in the portfolio. I've mentioned this before, so I won't belabor it. But we had underestimated the quality of the DJ and its ability to compete in our portfolio. And as we really get a good look at it, we were pleasantly surprised. So we want to be sure that we've applied all the things that we've developed in other areas to the Bakken, take a look at how we'll compete for capital.

我們並不急於決定該股在投資組合中的長期角色。我之前已經提過這件事了，所以就不贅述了。但我們低估了這位DJ的素質及其在我們投資組合中的競爭力。當我們仔細觀察後，我們驚訝地發現它確實不錯。所以我們希望確保我們已經將在其他領域開發的所有技術應用到巴肯地區，看看我們將如何爭取資金。

We've got the midstream piece of it as well, which has to be factored into the thinking here. But we'll be thoughtful and thorough as we assess that and really focus on value. And we'll update you in due course as we reach any conclusions.

我們也涉及到其中游環節，這一點也必須考慮。但我們會認真仔細評估，並真正關注其價值。一旦得出任何結論，我們會及時通知您。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞安·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

And maybe a follow-up on that. I mean overall, the Hess contribution came in at the high end of expectations or at least the guidance that you had provided earlier including very strong production. Can you maybe talk a little bit about what were some of the drivers of the strong performance? And any other kind of key takeaways a little bit into the ownership there?

或許還需要後續報道。我的意思是，總體而言，赫斯公司的貢獻達到了預期的高端水平，或至少達到了您之前提供的指導方針，包括非常強勁的產量。您能否談談促成這次出色表現的一些因素？關於所有權方面，還有其他需要重點說明的地方嗎？

Yes, Ryan. It's Eimear. I'll take this one. Yes, strong production growth was really the main driver and then delivery of the synergies that we had expected. So both of those -- both of those things are really contributing here to the stronger performance.

是的，瑞恩。是艾米爾。我選這個。是的，強勁的產量成長確實是主要驅動力，其次是實現了我們預期的綜效。所以這兩件事——這兩件事都對提升整體表現起到了積極作用。

Just maybe to double-click a little bit on the synergies. We're moving at pace through integration. So this really applies not only to the back-end part of the portfolio, but the entire portfolio. We had $1 billion synergy target. Post close, we confirmed that we will deliver that.

或許可以稍微加強一下綜效。我們正在快速推進整合進程。所以這不僅適用於投資組合的後端部分，也適用於整個投資組合。我們設定了10億美元的綜效目標。交易完成後，我們確認會交付。

We'll deliver those [run resaving] this year. And so that is all on track, combination of the utilization of NOLs, productions that were canceled to close and then operating efficiencies now that we've integrated the assets through -- into the Chevron system. We see this show up in the 3Q results and we'll expect to see more of that in the fourth quarter.

今年我們將實現這些[運行重新節省]。因此，一切都在按計劃進行，這包括利用 NOL、關閉已取消的生產項目，以及將資產整合到雪佛龍系統後提高營運效率。我們在第三季業績中看到了這一點，預計第四季還會看到更多這種情況。

Ryan, the one thing I might just add, we did see the start-up of Yellow Tail in the quarter an FID for Hammerhead. I had a chance to sit down with the legacy Hess team that has been working Guyana and go through it for an entire day. And I got to tell you, I was impressed with Guyana, obviously, but I was really impressed and pleased with the quality of the people, and I have high expectations for the contributions that we're going to get out of all the Hess employees that are part of Chevron now. It's the thing that maybe doesn't get quantified or talked about as much in these kinds of calls. But in my experience, a huge amount of value when we combine with another organization is bringing in people that have different experiences can help us innovate and improve.

Ryan，我還要補充一點，我們在本季看到了 Yellow Tail 的啟動，以及 Hammerhead 的最終投資決定。我有機會與一直在圭亞那開展業務的赫斯老團隊坐下來，花了一整天的時間詳細討論他們的工作。我必須告訴你們，我對圭亞那印象深刻，這是毋庸置疑的，但我真正印象深刻和滿意的是那里人民的素質，我對所有現在隸屬於雪佛龍的赫斯員工的貢獻抱有很高的期望。在這樣的電話會議中，這或許是很少人量化或討論的事情。但以我的經驗來看，與其他組織合作能帶來巨大的價值，那就是引進擁有不同經驗的人才，這可以幫助我們創新和改進。

And I have seen that again. So that's another real positive, I just want to emphasize.

我又一次看到了這種情況。所以，這又是一個真正的利好因素，我只想強調一下。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特，沃爾夫研究公司。

Mike, I'm guessing you might touch on some of this in a couple of weeks, I'm not trying to front on you in any way, but I want to ask you about exploration. So you just made the point that you've hired or you've inherited a lot of people presumably exploration folks on Guyana from Hess. But you also just hired the ex-Head of Exploration from (inaudible). You used to be the top explorer, if you go back pre-shale 2010 through 2015, spending a significant amount of capital and exploration.

麥克，我猜你可能會在幾週內談到其中的一些內容，我絕無冒犯你的意思，但我確實想問你關於探索的問題。所以你剛才的意思是，你已經僱用或繼承了很多人，大概是從赫斯公司接手了圭亞那的探勘人員。但你們也剛聘請了前勘探主管（聽不清楚）如果你回顧頁岩氣出現之前的 2010 年至 2015 年，你曾經是頂尖的勘探公司，投入了大量的資金和勘探資源。

I'm just wondering, as you think about shale maturity, not necessarily for you guys, but in the industry generally. What is your prognosis for exploration, the role of exploration and the associated spending that could fit in Chevron going forward, let's see over the next phase of your development?

我只是在想，你們在考慮頁岩油氣成熟度的時候，不一定是指你們公司的狀況，而是指整個產業的狀況。您對勘探的預測是什麼？勘探在雪佛龍未來的發展中扮演著怎樣的角色？相關的支出又將如何安排？讓我們看看在您下一個發展階段中，勘探將發揮怎樣的作用？

Yes. Thanks, Doug. Over the last several years, you're right, we've constrained our exploration spending, and we narrowed our focus into near infrastructure opportunities. We were adding a lot of resource and reserves in the unconventionals. And we're very serious about capital discipline.

是的。謝謝你，道格。你說得對，過去幾年我們確實限制了勘探支出，並將重點縮小到基礎設施附近的勘探機會。我們在非常規油氣領域新增了大量資源和儲量。我們非常重視資本紀律。

And so we made some trade-offs within the overall capital program. We now are at a point, I think, where we've characterized our unconventional position. It's a big and very attractive one. And we need to ramp up some of the exploration activity beyond just the focus on infrastructure opportunities.

因此，我們在整體資本計畫中做出了一些取捨。我認為，我們現在已經明確了我們這種非傳統的立場。它很大，而且非常吸引人。我們需要加強勘探活動的力度，而不僅限於基礎建設的機會。

So we'll move to a more balanced approach of mature areas that are well known and also early entry into high-impact frontier areas. We've added a lot of new country entries over the last couple of years in the South Atlantic margin, the Middle East, the West Coast of South America as well. So we will look to have a broader program in some of those areas, countries like Suriname, Brazil, Namibia, more opportunity in Nigeria and Angola, where we like some of the prospects that have added both blocks and have been shooting seismic recently.

因此，我們將採取更平衡的方法，既要專注於成熟的、廣為人知的領域，也要儘早進入具有重大影響力的前沿領域。過去幾年，我們在南大西洋沿岸、中東以及南美洲西海岸等地新增了許多國家條目。因此，我們將尋求在這些地區開展更廣泛的項目，例如蘇利南、巴西、納米比亞等國家，以及尼日利亞和安哥拉等我們看好的地區，這些地區有一些項目已經新增了區塊，並且最近一直在進行地震勘探。

So we're looking for more out of that. We've modified our internal organization as part of the overall restructuring that you've heard about to simplify decision-making and speed it up. We're going to be bringing new technology to bear and have some really interesting things going on there. We've got some new people from Hess, also now Kevin joining us from Total. And our current Head of Exploration, Liz Schwarze has reached the end of long and very wonderful career.

所以我們希望從中獲得更多。作為您已聽到的整體重組的一部分，我們對內部組織結構進行了調整，以簡化決策流程並加快決策速度。我們將引入新技術，並在那裡開展一些非常有趣的項目。我們從 Hess 公司引進了一些新員工，現在還有來自 Total 公司的 Kevin 也加入了我們。我們現任勘探主管 Liz Schwarze 也結束了她漫長而精彩的職業生涯。

There's a natural time to move on to a new person. And often, we look both inside and outside the company. And I think Kevin brings some unique experience that we expect will be helpful as well. And so, we will talk about that more in a couple of weeks when we see you. But the short story is more emphasis on frontier exploration.

開始一段新戀情總會有自然而然的時機。而且我們通常會同時關注公司內部和外部的情況。我認為凱文帶來了一些獨特的經驗，我們預計這些經驗也會有所幫助。所以，我們會在幾週後見到你的時候再詳細談談這件事。但短篇小說更著重於邊疆探索。

I think you'll see a little more commitment of resource. So that would be both people and capital to that.

我認為你會看到我們投入更多資源。所以，這其中既需要人力也需要資金。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

Actually, just another follow-up on the exploration front. It has been notable the new country entries. The one that my eye was in Namibia. I believe you're planning a 10-well campaign there. It doesn't seem like your first well has sort of put you off the basin.

實際上，這只是勘探方面的另一個後續行動。值得注意的是新增國家的數量。我眼睛受傷的那次是在納米比亞。我相信你們計劃在那裡開展一個10口井的開發案。看來你的第一口井並沒有讓你對這個盆地失去興趣。

So a couple of questions related to that. Could you give us your updated thoughts on the prospectivity of the basin. And secondly, whether you feel like you have enough exposure through the exploration campaign or whether you'd be looking to add more from any inorganic opportunities that might arise?

所以，關於這一點，我有幾個問題。您能否提供您對盆地勘探前景的最新看法？其次，您是否覺得透過探索性行銷活動已經獲得了足夠的曝光度，或者您是否希望透過任何可能出現的非自然成長機會來增加曝光度？

Yes. So look, we've got a portfolio of opportunities that's been identified from seismic on our blocks. We've drilled 1 well that didn't yield commercial hydrocarbons, but it was very well executed. And a lot of valuable information from that, that we're using to evaluate options to drill some other blocks on these licenses. We recently completed a farm-in on a couple of other blocks in the Walvis Basin, and we've got an opportunity to play some plate concepts from the Orange Basin into the Walvis with a well that we'll drill in '26 or '27.

是的。所以你看，我們已經透過對地塊進行地震勘探，確定了一系列投資機會。我們鑽了一口井，雖然沒有產出商業油氣，但鑽井過程非常順利。我們從中獲得了許多有價值的信息，並利用這些資訊來評估在這些許可證下鑽探其他區塊的方案。我們最近完成了沃爾維斯盆地其他幾個區塊的農業資金收購，我們有機會將奧蘭治盆地的一些板塊概念應用到沃爾維斯盆地，我們將在 2026 年或 2027 年鑽一口井。

So that's an area that, obviously, there's been a lot of interest in folks have had some success. We had success there a long time ago with the [kudu] gas discovery, which is several decades back. And we remain optimistic. It's exploration. And so you've got a -- you've got to do the work to see what you find.

顯然，這是一個很多人感興趣的領域，有些人也取得了一些成功。幾十年前，我們在那裡發現了庫杜氣田，並取得了成功。我們依然保持樂觀。這是探索。所以，你必須做些工作才能發現什麼。

The 10 wells you referred to, we've got an environmental permit that will allow us to go up to 10. I would interpret that as a plan to actually go to that number, unless we see things that would suggest that's the right thing to do.

您提到的 10 口井，我們已經獲得了環境許可證，允許我們最多鑽 10 口井。我會將其理解為一項旨在實現該數字的計劃，除非我們看到一些跡象表明這樣做是正確的。

In terms of inorganic, we don't really comment on commercial activity or discussions, but we always look at everything to make sure we got a good understanding of the market. And as I mentioned, we've actually farmed in to some things. And you'll continue to see, I think, us optimize our portfolio in Namibia as well as other locations.

就非有機成長而言，我們通常不會對商業活動或討論發表評論，但我們總是會關注所有方面，以確保我們對市場有充分的了解。正如我之前提到的，我們實際上已經涉足了一些領域。我認為，你們將會繼續看到我們優化在納米比亞以及其他地區的投資組合。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

Paul Cheng，加拿大豐業銀行。

My -- just -- when I look at your results over the past year or 2, your base operation has done really well. Just curious that have you changed the way that how you manage your base. And so does that become a repeatable. And (inaudible), it's not just you, but that the rest of the industry also seems to be doing better. So should we assume going forward, the underlying base decline is going to be far more modest for you, I think it's about 3%. So is that on the ballpark, we should assume or that could even be lower in the future for you?

我的天——當我查看你們過去一兩年的業績時，你們的基地運作做得非常好。我只是好奇，你們管理基地的方式是否有改變？因此，這便成為了一種可重複的現象。而且（聽不清楚），不只是你，其他行業似乎也做得更好了。所以，我們是否可以假設，未來你的基本面下降幅度會小得多，我認為大約是 3%。所以這個估計值大致是如此嗎？或者未來你的預期值可能會更低？

Yes. Thanks, Paul. I appreciate you paying attention to our base operations around the world. There's probably a couple of things I would point to for us, and I can't necessarily comment on others. Number one, we are focused on doing all the little things right.

是的。謝謝你，保羅。感謝您關注我們在世界各地的基地運作。可能有幾點我想指出，但其他方面我未必能置評。第一，我們專注於把所有的小事都做好。

The restructuring of the company that's underway has created in the upstream, an organization now that is aligned around asset classes primarily. So offshore, unconventional, we do have a couple of big assets that are reporting uniquely in places like Australia and Kazakhstan. But we're aligned in a way now to drive best practices and technology more effectively across those operations. And as we improve in 1 place, we should see those improvements show up in other places more quickly.

公司正在進行的重組在上游領域創建了一個主要圍繞資產類別劃分的組織。所以，在離岸、非常規領域，我們確實有一些大型資產，例如在澳洲和哈薩克等地，它們的業績報告非常獨特。但我們現在採取了一種協同方式，可以更有效地在這些營運中推動最佳實踐和技術的應用。當我們在一個方面取得進步時，我們應該會更快地看到這些進步體現在其他地方。

We are applying a lot of technology, and we'll talk about this a little bit more in a couple of weeks, but particularly the information technology that allows us to automate things and make decisions faster, stay on top of things, I think, is going to yield further results, but we're already seeing the early returns on that.

我們正在應用很多技術，幾週後我們會更詳細地討論這個問題，但特別是資訊技術，它使我們能夠自動化處理事務、更快地做出決策、掌握最新動態，我認為這將帶來更大的成果，而且我們已經看到了初步的回報。

The other thing that I would just remind you of is we have a portfolio, Paul, that as compared to, say, a decade ago, for sure, but you can look at different time periods. We have a lot more of our production now that is in either a facility limited position. Think of TCO or think of Gorgon and Wheatstone, as fields that could deliver more, but the facilities limit that.

我還要提醒你一點，保羅，我們有一個投資組合，與十年前相比肯定有所改善，但你也可以看看不同的時間段。我們現在有很多產品都處於產能受限的狀態。想想 TCO，或想想 Gorgon 和 Wheatstone，這些田地本來可以產出更多，但設施限制了這一點。

So you essentially don't see a decline there because those are very plateaued at low capital. And increasingly, Permian, DJ, Bakken, we have unconventionals that are being managed that way as well. And so at much more efficient capital, and you're seeing that in the Permian right now. The production for the basin can hold flat in a very capital-efficient manner.

所以基本上看不到這方面的下滑，因為在低資本水準下，這些下滑趨勢已經非常平穩了。而且，越來越多的二疊紀盆地、DJ盆地、巴肯盆地等非常規油田也都採用這種管理方式。因此，資本效率大大提高，而你現在在二疊紀盆地就看到了這一點。該盆地的產量可以以非常節約資本的方式保持穩定。

Now each well has new wells have that peak production profile. But in aggregate, as you go from hundreds and hundreds into thousands and thousands of those wells that are in that kind of longer, flatter portion of their life, they also have kind of shallow decline that you can offset with this capital efficient program.

現在每口新井都達到了產量高峰。但總體而言，隨著數百口井的數量增加到數千口井，這些井處於生命週期中較長、較為平緩的階段，它們的產量下降也比較平緩，而這種資本高效的方案可以抵消產量下降。

So the point I'm making, and sorry for going on is it's a combination, I think, of portfolio effects, which yield less capital-intensive work to hold production and assets that have facility limits on them. And those combine to give us the attributes that you're observing. And that is intentional. That's not an accident. It's a portfolio that's been designed to do that. So we don't face the massive capital investment to offset big decline and are faced with that year after year after year.

所以我想表達的觀點（抱歉我說了這麼多）是，我認為這是投資組合效應的綜合體現，它使得資本密集度較低的生產活動得以開展，並且資產也受到設施限制。這些因素結合起來，就形成了你所觀察到的這些屬性。這是有意為之。那並非意外。這是一個旨在實現這一目標的投資組合。因此，我們沒有面臨巨額資本投資來抵銷大幅下滑，卻年復一年地面臨這種情況。

Steve Richardson, Evercore ISI.

Steve Richardson，Evercore ISI。

Mike, I'd love your perspective on the California refining market. We've got a couple of pretty notable shutdowns in process and some proposed pipeline projects to bring products to the West Coast and obviously, more waterborne imports. So I would love to hear your perspective on that, the policy backdrop and what this -- where this leaves your business in the state?

麥克，我很想聽聽你對加州煉油市場的看法。我們正在進行幾項非常重要的停產檢修，還有一些擬議的管道項目，旨在將產品輸送到西海岸，顯然，還有更多的水路進口。所以我很想聽聽您對此的看法，包括政策背景以及這會對您在該州的業務造成什麼影響？

Yes. So the 2 recent, I guess, 1 that's underway right now and 1 is set to close in 2026. Again, a lot of attention. Remember, there's a couple of other facilities that have been converted from petroleum-based feedstock to bio feedstocks with much lower overall production capacity. So you've seen a market where supply has tightened.

是的。所以最近的兩個項目，我猜，一個是目前正在進行的，另一個計劃於 2026 年完成。再次引起廣泛關注。請記住，還有幾家工廠已經從石油基原料轉變為生物原料，但它們的總產能要低得多。所以你已經看到了供應趨緊的市場。

It is a function of policy, pure and simple. Others have spoken to that as they've made changes either in the way of refineries being used or announced plans to close it. And so, the policy is yielding the desired results. I think you're seeing some discussion now where the policy is being reconsidered, and there may be some small steps in the right direction we've seen, but nothing that I would say is significant.

這完全是政策問題，僅此而已。其他人也談到了這一點，因為他們已經改變了煉油廠的使用方式，或者宣布了關閉煉油廠的計劃。因此，該政策正在取得預期效果。我認為現在有一些關於重新考慮這項政策的討論，我們可能已經看到了一些朝著正確方向邁出的小步，但沒有什麼實質的進展。

The other thing that is underway is people have to think about how do they get product to the state now because it is not going to be balanced to long. It is going to be balanced to short. And so marine imports are going to have to become a more regular feature. People are going to have to figure out how to do that. The recent talk about pipelines is interesting in California doesn't have inbound product pipelines or crude pipelines for that matter.

另一件正在進行的事情是，人們必須考慮如何將產品運送到州內，因為供需平衡不會持續太久。持倉將保持中空平衡。因此，海運進口必將成為更常規的做法。人們必須想辦法做到這一點。最近關於輸油管的討論很有意思，因為加州既沒有成品油輸油管，也沒有原油輸油管。

These are interesting announcements. They're ambitious projects. There's many moving parts. These are complicated to permit. They're complicated to build. But I think fuel suppliers are looking for ways to meet the demand.

這些消息很有意思。這些都是雄心勃勃的項目。牽涉的環節很多。這些審批流程很複雜。它們建造起來很複雜。但我認為燃料供應商正在尋找滿足需求的方法。

One thing I think, as (inaudible) about is the supply is going to come from somewhere. So to the extent California starts to pull product from other markets, that has other knock-on effects as well. And so we'll see if these projects get built, we'll see how the market dynamics play out. But it's clearly a changing market. We've got a strong refining and marketing presence there.

我認為（聽不清楚）的一點是，供應總是會來自某個地方。因此，如果加州開始從其他市場撤回產品，也會產生其他連鎖反應。所以，我們將拭​​目以待，看看這些項目能否建成，看看市場動態會如何發展。但市場顯然正在改變。我們在那裡擁有強大的煉油和行銷實力。

And to this point, can compete and deliver acceptable returns, but that's something that will continue to be tested. And the policy moves by the state will have an impact on the decisions get made by us and I suspect by others.

到目前為止，它能夠參與競爭並帶來可接受的回報，但這仍需繼續接受考驗。國家的政策措施將對我們以及我懷疑對其他人所做的決定產生影響。

Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

Jean Ann Salisbury，美國銀行。

This was true before Hess, but now more so, Chevron's portfolio is more weighted towards upstream than many of your integrated peers. Are you happy with that mix? Or is that something that you might seek ideally to even out over time with more downstream [or CHEM's] exposure?

在 Hess 收購之前情況就是如此，但現在更是如此，雪佛龍的業務組合比許多綜合性同行更側重於上游業務。你對這個配色滿意嗎？或者，您是否希望隨著時間的推移，透過增加下游（或 CHEM）的曝光量來達到理想狀態？

Yes, Jean Ann, our portfolio post Hess is back to kind of 85% upstream, 15% downstream. And that's kind of where we've been over the last couple of decades. And so I don't think -- we don't feel compelled to try to weigh it up in the downstream further than that. Over the cycle, and I came out of the downstream, I love the downstream business. They got a lot of affinity for it, but upstream is a declining depletion business.

是的，Jean Ann，在 Hess 收購後，我們的投資組合又回到了約 85% 上游、15% 下游的格局。過去二十年來，我們基本上一直處於這種狀態。所以我覺得──我們並不覺得有必要在下游進一步權衡這個問題。經歷了整個週期，我從下游走到了下游，我熱愛下游業務。他們對上游產業很有好感，但上游產業是一個日漸衰退的產業。

Downstream is a business of capacity creep in facilities that often get bigger over time, not smaller. And it's hard to close refineries down. We've seen some rationalization over the last 5 years as COVID and some other market imbalances kind of drove that. But historically, and I think going forward, we're still of a view that downstream returns over time are going to be more pressured than upstream returns, which tend to be a little more self-correcting.

下游業務的特點是產能不斷攀升，設施往往會隨著時間的推移而變大，而不是變小。而且關閉煉油廠很困難。過去五年，由於新冠疫情和其他一些市場失衡因素的影響，我們看到了一些合理化趨勢。但從歷史角度來看，而且我認為展望未來，我們仍然認為，隨著時間的推移，下游收益將比上游收益面臨更大的壓力，而上游收益往往更具自我糾正能力。

The 1 piece of the downstream, we've been pretty clear that we would like to grow is petrochemicals. We've got a couple of projects underway at CPChem right now. Tough market conditions in that sector. But over the long term, we like the demand growth and economic opportunities in petrochemicals. But I think you should expect to see us stay with a portfolio weighting that's not too different than where we are today.

在下游產業鏈中，我們非常明確地表示，我們希望發展的第一部分是石化產品。我們CPChem目前正在進行幾個項目。該產業市場環境嚴峻。但從長遠來看，我們看好石化產業的需求成長和經濟機會。但我認為，你們應該會看到我們維持目前的投資組合權重，與目前的權重不會有太大變化。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman，TD Cowen。

It looks like equity affiliate distributions have been running much higher than guide year-to-date. I think every quarter, it beats guide this year by about $700 million. Wondering what's driving that beat? Is it TCO outperformance? Is it higher LNG prices? And should we expect that to continue into 4Q and next year?

今年迄今為止，股權附屬公司的股利似乎遠高於預期。我認為今年每個季度，它的業績都會比預期高出約 7 億美元。想知道是什麼在驅動這股節奏嗎？整體擁有成本效益是否優於競爭對手？是液化天然氣價格上漲嗎？我們是否應該預期這種情況會持續到第四季和明年？

Jason, I'll cover that. Yes, I mean, the affiliate dividend performance has really exceeded expectation, and it comes down to TCO's performance since starting up earlier in the year. They've operated safely and reliably and the results to speak for themselves. So it is really a TCO story. When we look at the guidance, though, I mean, no change to the guidance even with that performance.

傑森，我會處理的。是的，我的意思是，附屬公司分紅表現確實超出了預期，這主要歸功於 TCO 自今年年初成立以來的出色表現。他們的營運安全可靠，結果足以證明一切。所以這其實是一個總擁有成本的故事。但當我們查看業績指引時，我的意思是，即使業績表現如此，業績指引也沒有改變。

Given that in fourth quarter, we've got a pitstop plan for TCO. So you'll see production come off in the fourth quarter due to that pit stop. And so they also -- TCO have to conserve some cash because they've got 2 loan repayments to make next year, 1 in the first quarter and 1 in the third quarter. So those 2 factors are really driving the change in guidance that we've provided that on the surface looks like it's coming down, but really, it's being driven by those 2 things.

鑑於第四季度，我們制定了 TCO 的臨時解決方案。所以你會看到，由於這次停工，第四季的產量會下降。因此，TCO 也必須節省一些現金，因為他們明年有兩筆貸款要償還，一筆在第一季度，一筆在第三季。因此，這兩個因素確實推動了我們提供的指導意見的變化，表面上看起來像是下調了，但實際上，這是由這兩個因素驅動的。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

Arun Jayaram，摩根大通。

Just a quick follow-up on TCO. That was a driver of the earnings beat this morning. Your production on the liquid side grew 5% sequentially, notwithstanding the turnaround in fourth quarter, but are you essentially ramped to capacity there?

關於TCO，我再補充一點。這是今天早上獲利超出預期的一個主要原因。儘管第四季出現轉機，貴公司液體產品的產量較上季增加了 5%，但貴公司液體產品的產能是否已基本達到飽和？

Yes. We're really pleased with how TCO has been performing. We had another quarter of very reliable production, and I want to emphasize reliability, starting up a new complex set of processing trains like we did there, historically, can offer some reliability challenges. And this one has been touch wood exceptionally smooth. So we're pleased with that. We didn't have any planned maintenance here in the third quarter. And so you see things running, yes, very much at planned nameplate.

是的。我們對TCO的表現非常滿意。我們又經歷了一個非常可靠的生產季度，我想強調可靠性，像我們之前那樣啟動一套新的複雜加工生產線，從歷史上看，可能會帶來一些可靠性方面的挑戰。而且，就目前來看，這個過程異常順利。我們對此感到滿意。第三季我們這裡沒有任何計畫內的維護工作。所以你會看到一切都在按計劃進行。

We continue to also -- one of the things that Mark mentioned when he was on the call last time is we now have 3 generations of surface plants to process both the liquids and the gas. The original complex technology line area of the facility, which goes way back. The second generation plant, which was started up last decade and now the third generation plant, which is this decade.

我們繼續下去——馬克上次在電話會議上提到的一件事是，我們現在有三代地面工廠來處理液體和氣體。該設施最初的複雜技術生產線區域，其歷史可以追溯到很久以前。第二代工廠於上個十年投產，而現在第三代工廠則於本十年投產。

We have an integrated control center that can route streams optimally across all 3 of these facilities. We're using a lot of high-end information technology to automate this to a greater degree. And so we've got more knobs to turn and levers to pull to really optimize plant performance. And we've got a field now that's producing us less back pressure, and so we're seeing all of that come through.

我們擁有一個整合控制中心，可以優化分配這 3 個設施之間的資料流。我們正在運用大量高端資訊技術來提高這一流程的自動化程度。因此，我們需要調整更多參數和控制更多措施，才能真正優化工廠的性能。我們現在的場地帶給我們的反撲壓力更小了，所以我們看到了所有這些變化。

The history on these great, big, complex facilities, a little bit like I mentioned about refineries is we do find ways to crude capacity and debottleneck them over time. It's premature to reset any guidance on that, but the history suggests that there's an opportunity there. And certainly, those are the kinds of things that our people are working on. Fourth quarter will reflect the pit stop that Eimear mentioned, but we'll be working on that and talking to you more about it over time as we see how things perform.

這些龐大、複雜的設施的歷史，有點像我之前提到的煉油廠，我們確實會找到方法來提高原油產能，並隨著時間的推移消除瓶頸。現在重新制定相關指導方針還為時過早，但歷史經驗表明，那裡存在機會。當然，這些正是我們的人員正在努力的方向。第四季將會反映出艾米爾提到的調整，但我們會繼續努力，並隨著時間的推移，根據實際情況與大家進行更多討論。

Phillip Jungwirth, BMO.

Phillip Jungwirth，BMO。

One of the big US upstream themes has been getting more value for Permian gas. There's been a number of pipelines announced FID. I know Chevron is already relatively well positioned here. But given that you produced, I think around (inaudible) a day net from the Permian, just hoping you could talk about what you're already doing on the marketing side here and also what you think you can do in the future to further maximize value?

美國上游產業的一大主題是提高二疊紀盆地天然氣的價值。已有多個輸油管項目宣布最終投資決定。我知道雪佛龍在這裡已經佔據了相對有利的地位。但鑑於你們在二疊紀盆地每天的淨產量大約是（聽不清楚）個，我只是希望你們能談談你們在行銷方面已經做了些什麼，以及你們認為未來可以做些什麼來進一步最大化價值？

Yes. Thanks, Phil. I know this has been getting some attention recently. In the Permian, we market all of our company-operated production. So that would be oil, NGLs and gas.

是的。謝謝你，菲爾。我知道這件事最近引起了一些關注。在二疊紀盆地，我們銷售公司自營生產的所有產品。所以就包括石油、液化天然氣和天然氣。

And just a little less than half of the NOJV production. So you can think about it in total, that kind of, call it, 70% or so of our production gets US Gulf Coast pricing. The remaining portion of NOJV and royalty volumes that we don't market can be exposed to in-basin pricing and Waha pricing on gas. So our Waha exposure can vary a little bit each quarter.

而且只佔 NOJV 產量的不到一半。所以你可以從整體上考慮，大約 70% 的產品是以美國墨西哥灣沿岸的價格出售的。剩餘的 NOJV 和特許權使用費份額（我們不進行市場推廣的部分）可能會受到盆地內天然氣定價和 Waha 天然氣定價的影響。因此，我們對 Waha 的投資金額每季可能會略有不同。

Last quarter, it was a little closer to 20% rather than the 30% that would be implied by what I just told you, because we were able to use some of our own excess firm transportation capacity out of the basin to capture value from others that didn't have an opportunity to move out of the basin. So we can capture some of the arb that opens up from time to time there to offset some portion of that volume that we don't actually market ourselves.

上個季度，這個數字更接近 20%，而不是我剛才說的 30%，因為我們能夠利用我們自己多餘的、穩定的運輸能力，將貨物運出盆地，從而從那些沒有機會運出盆地的人那裡獲取價值。因此，我們可以抓住不時出現的套利機會，來抵消我們自己沒有實際銷售的部分交易量。

Going forward, I think you should look for us to do more of the same. We're covered on all 3 streams right now for out-of-basin transportation. To the extent we're long, sometimes we can use that to capture additional value. And we tend to -- because we're running a very steady, well-planned program, we can commit in advance because we've got a high degree of confidence on the composition of the production and the volumes that we're going to need. Obviously, for shippers -- or for midstream companies were a desired shipper given the credit quality and reliability that we offer to them.

展望未來，我認為你們應該期待我們繼續做同樣的事情。目前我們已經涵蓋了所有三條河流的流域外運輸。如果我們持有多頭頭寸，有時可以利用這一點來獲取額外價值。而且我們往往會這樣做——因為我們運行著一個非常穩定、計劃周密的項目，我們可以提前做出承諾，因為我們對生產組成和我們需要的數量有很高的信心。顯然，對於托運人而言——或者對於中游公司而言，鑑於我們向他們提供的信用品質和可靠性，我們是一個理想的托運人。

And so we'll continue to use that to ensure that we're well covered and that we can optimize value across the entire value chain.

因此，我們將繼續利用這一點來確保我們得到充分的保障，並優化整個價值鏈的價值。

Lucas Herrmann, BNP.

Lucas Herrmann，法國巴黎銀行。

Mike, I just wanted to briefly go back to the Downstream and Chemicals. And as you mentioned, I mean you've got 2 very large facilities coming on stream in partnership with Qatar Energy next year. And I -- the question is simply, as they come on or as they build the capacity, what's the increment at current levels that you'd expect from -- for cash flow. And to what extent a little bit like TCO, can one expect to see CapEx across CPChem fall and distributions to the center to yourselves increase?

麥克，我只是想簡單地再回顧一下下游和化學品方面的內容。正如您所提到的，我的意思是，明年您將與卡達能源公司合作，有兩個非常大的設施投入營運。而我的問題很簡單，隨著他們的加入或產能的提升，在目前的水平下，你預期現金流能增加多少。就像 TCO 一樣，我們能否預期 CPChem 的資本支出下降，而分配給你們中心的資金增加？

Yes, Phil, we'll talk about this a little bit more at Investor Day. Two things I would just point out, these are world-scale facilities. They have very advantaged feedstock positions and they will be very low on the cost curve. And so they're highly competitive facilities that will be coming into the market. At the margin, some of the length in the market tends to be in countries where they're cracking naphtha.

是的，菲爾，我們會在投資者日上更詳細地討論這個問題。我只想指出兩點，這些都是世界級的設施。他們在原料供應方面擁有非常有利的地位，成本也會非常低。因此，這些都是極具競爭力的即將進入市場的設施。從邊際上看，市場上的部分長線往往位於那些正在裂解石腦油的國家。

They tend not to be world-scale facilities, and they're feeling a lot of economic pressure right now. So we think both of these projects are well positioned to deliver returns over the long term. They're kind of 20% type IRR expectations on these projects. We're very pleased with our relationship with QE.

它們往往不是世界級的設施，目前正面臨很大的經濟壓力。因此，我們認為這兩個項目都具備長期帶來回報的良好條件。這些項目的內部報酬率預期大概在 20% 左右。我們對與QE的合作關係非常滿意。

Chevron's exposure comes through a joint venture in CPChem and then a further venture with QE. So you have to think about that as you think about how exposed we are and how much cash those might generate because it flows back through the dividend policy at CPChem and we're only exposed to a portion of each of those facilities. More to follow at Investor Day on that subject.

雪佛龍透過與 CPChem 的合資企業以及與 QE 的另一家合資企業參與其中。所以，在考慮我們面臨的風險敞口以及這些風險敞口可能產生的現金流時，你必須考慮到這一點，因為這些現金會通過 CPChem 的股息政策回流，而我們只對每個工廠的一部分風險敞口。關於此主題的更多資訊將在投資者日上公佈。

Paul Sankey, Sankey Research.

Paul Sankey，Sankey Research。

Mike, I know you can't talk obviously about the specifics of the analyst meeting, but I wanted to ask you a question if you just set the table a bit here in terms of the macro environment. And the reason I'm asking is just at this analyst meeting, is going to be your first since 2023, which is the longest gap that you've had between meetings as far as back as I know. And so given the world, I just wanted to get your perspective on how the world has changed, perhaps some of it is cyclical, some of its structural as we go into this meeting. And to answer the question a little bit and help you out here with what I'm thinking. I mean you've got the continued war in Russia since 2023 Russia, Ukraine.

麥克，我知道你顯然不能談論分析師會議的具體細節，但我想問你一個問題，如果你能先就宏觀環境做一些介紹的話。我之所以這麼問，是因為這次分析師會議是自 2023 年以來的第一次，據我所知，這是兩次會議之間間隔時間最長的一次。鑑於當今世界形勢，我只是想聽聽您對世界變化的看法，也許有些變化是週期性的，有些變化是結構性的，正如我們即將召開的這次會議一樣。為了稍微回答一下這個問題，也為了幫助你理解我的想法。我的意思是，自 2023 年以來，俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的戰爭一直在持續。

There's a massive shift in ESG that we've seen since then. The AI boom completely new. OPEC policy, I think, has changed. And of course, the big one is the second Trump administration and then finally, the interest rate environment, I guess, has changed. I'd just like you to kind of set the stage, if you will.

自那時以來，我們看到了ESG領域的巨大轉變。人工智慧的蓬勃發展是全新的。我認為，歐佩克的政策已經改變了。當然，最大的變化是川普的第二個任期，最後，我想，利率環境也改變了。我希望你能先介紹一下背景。

All right. Well, Paul, what you've done is you've kind of teed up the answer I give to people when they say, isn't this kind of yesterday's business and there's not a lot going on in it. I mean the world changes constantly. And in 2.5 or 2 years and 8 months, whatever it will have been since our last meeting, a lot has changed. The war in Russia had only begun, the war in Ukraine.

好的。保羅，你這樣做其實正好為我回答人們「這不是過時的行業嗎？現在沒什麼新鮮事可做了」這個問題做好了鋪墊。我的意思是，世界瞬息萬變。距離我們上次見面已經過了2年半或2年8個月，不管具體是多久，很多事情都改變了。俄羅斯的戰爭才剛開始，烏克蘭的戰爭才剛開始。

The Middle East hasn't seen hostility breakout. We hadn't seen (inaudible) hit the way that it now has been. You're right. We were kind of at peak ESG. At our last meeting, there was not much interest in AI at the time or not much public acknowledgment of what was probably going on behind the scenes there.

中東地區尚未爆發敵對行動。我們從未見過（聽不清楚）像現在這樣猛烈的打擊。你說得對。我們當時正處於ESG發展的巔峰時期。在我們上次會議上，當時人們對人工智慧並沒有太大的興趣，也沒有多少人公開承認人工智慧領域幕後可能正在發生的事情。

OPEC was responding, I guess, at that point in time, still we've been in a high-price market due to the start of the conflict in Ukraine, but before long, they started constraining and we had President Biden in the US, not present Trump. So we always have a changing context in this industry. The last few years might have had a little more interesting change than most.

我想，當時歐佩克正在做出回應，儘管由於烏克蘭衝突的爆發，我們仍然處於高油價市場，但不久之後，他們就開始限制產量，而當時的美國總統是拜登，而不是現在的川普。所以，我們身處在這個產業，環境總是不斷在改變。過去幾年發生的變化可能比大多數時期都要有趣一些。

But the fundamentals really are what we try to look through, and the global economy continues to grow. The population of the planet continues to grow. Economic development continues to advance. And affordable and reliable energy is fundamental to that progress. And I think the conflict in Ukraine has pointed that out.

但我們真正想看清的是基本面，而全球經濟仍在持續成長。地球人口持續成長。經濟發展持續推展。經濟實惠且可靠的能源是這項進步的基礎。我認為烏克蘭衝突已經凸顯了這一點。

What we're seeing with AI and the stress on the power system in the US is pointing that out. And so affordable, reliable energy is the lifeblood of a modern economy. That's the business that we're in and the fundamentals of that, we continue to believe offer value-creating opportunities for wise capital investment long, long into the future. So we'll talk about that. We'll give you some guidance on our business out to the end of the decade. Right now, I think most of our guidance goes to the end of next year.

人工智慧為美國電力系統帶來的壓力正印證了這一點。因此，價格合理、可靠的能源是現代經濟的命脈。這就是我們所從事的業務，我們始終相信，該業務的基本面能夠為明智的資本投資在未來很長一段時間內創造價值機會。所以我們會談談這個。我們將就我們公司未來十年的業務發展向您提供一些指導。目前，我認為我們的大部分指導意見都有效期至明年年底。

I think 1 thing I would say, Paul, is you should expect us to be consistent in what you're going to hear from us. Our strategy has stood the test of time over a pretty volatile period, as you just described. And we know you're interested in cash and earnings growth through the decade.

保羅，我想說的一點是，你應該期待我們所說的話保持一致。正如您剛才所描述的，我們的策略在一段相當動盪的時期內經受住了時間的考驗。我們知道您關注的是未來十年的現金流量和收益成長。

What we'll also talk about is how we'll deliver that through continued capital and cost discipline through innovation, through technology through a very strong portfolio through one that is low risk and high confidence, as I've seen in my career and is set up to continue to reward our shareholders with continued strong cash returns through the dividend policy where we have been a leader. And through a steady through-the-cycle share repurchase program, where I think we've been very predictable and consistent.

我們還將討論如何透過持續的資本和成本控制、創新、技術以及一個非常強大的投資組合來實現這一目標，該投資組合風險低、信心高，正如我在職業生涯中所看到的，並且旨在透過我們一直處於領先地位的股息政策，繼續為股東帶來強勁的現金回報。我們透過持續的周期性股票回購計劃，我認為我們在這方面一直非常可預測且始終如一。

So that maybe says no huge surprises. But it does say that a good story is continuing to get better.

所以這或許意味著不會有太大的意外。但這確實表明，一個好故事會變得越來越好。

Bob Brackett, Bernstein Research.

Bob Brackett，伯恩斯坦研究公司。

There's a view out in the macro market for oil that the market's oversupplied in '26 and that shale has to make some room for OpEx spare capacity. You all touch more barrels in the Permian than anyone through your operated, your non-op JVs and your royalties. What's the state of the Permian today? And how would you forecast that, say, into next year?

宏觀石油市場普遍認為，2026 年石油市場供應過剩，頁岩油必須騰出一些空間來彌補營運成本的剩餘產能。你們透過自營企業、非自營合資企業和特許權使用費，經手的二疊紀盆地油井比任何人都多。如今二疊紀地層狀況如何？那麼，您該如何預測明年的情況呢？

Yes. I mean the current rig count is somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 rigs, I think, that is at or at least close to multiyear lows. I think most third parties seem to think that level of rigs is an appropriate number to maintain current production levels. And that's, of course, dependent upon are they still finding good productive opportunities beyond the top-tier acreage. Our company is still able to deliver cash back to shareholders, which is a promise that I think we've seen a lot of the Permian operators now commit to that may be tested as we go through a period of lower prices, and see how they handle the trade-off between capital and cash returns to shareholders.

是的。我的意思是，目前鑽井平台的數量大約在 250 台左右，我認為這已經達到或接近多年來的最低水準。我認為大多數第三方機構都認為，目前的鑽井平台數量足以維持目前的生產水準。當然，這取決於他們是否還能在頂級地塊之外找到良好的生產機會。我們公司仍然能夠向股東返還現金，我認為我們現在看到許多二疊紀盆地的運營商都做出了這樣的承諾，但隨著價格走低，這一承諾可能會受到考驗，我們將看看他們如何處理資本和股東現金回報之間的權衡。

We continue to see efficiency and productivity gains in our fleet. I think others are probably seeing similar kinds of gains and we continue to work on technology and things that will improve not only the ability to execute well, but the ability to recover more. So most companies seem to be guiding to kind of flattish or maybe slightly reduced CapEx as we go forward. I would say that's probably not a bad proxy for where production is likely to go. So not growing at the rate that we've seen before, probably plateauing.

我們的車隊效率和生產力持續提升。我認為其他人可能也看到了類似的進步，我們將繼續致力於技術研發，以提高執行能力和復原能力。因此，大多數公司似乎都在朝著資本支出持平或略有減少的方向發展。我認為這或許可以很好地預示生產的未來發展方向。所以成長速度沒有達到我們之前看到的水平，可能已經趨於平穩。

But as all of you that watch the Permian over the last 15 or 20 years have seen these things change. And it's a dynamic basin. It's a highly responsive basin with a lot of players in it, and it can be quite responsive to market signals.

但正如過去 15 到 20 年來所有關註二疊紀盆地的人所看到的那樣，這些事情已經改變了。而且這是一個動態變化的盆地。這是一個反應非常靈敏的盆地，裡面有很多參與者，而且對市場訊號非常敏感。

Geoff Jay, Daniel Energy Partners.

Geoff Jay，Daniel Energy Partners。

My question is on Argentina. I noticed that you had to produce a reasonably high percentage uptick in this quarter. And given that you -- I think you have roughly the same amount of acres there as you do in the DJ. I'm kind of curious as to how you think the potential of Argentina production could be over the next 2 or 3 years? And what are the key gating factors to that growth?

我的問題與阿根廷有關。我注意到，本季你們的業績必須達到相當高的百分比成長。鑑於你——我認為你在那裡的土地面積與你在DJ的土地面積大致相同。我很好奇您認為阿根廷未來兩三年的生產潛力如何？那麼，限制這種成長的關鍵因素是什麼？

Yes. Well, let me start by just reminding everyone that we've been in Argentina for many years. We've been in vertical production through some acquisitions that go back decades. And it's been a place where we've got a lot of history. We understand the subsurface.

是的。首先，我想提醒大家，我們已經在阿根廷很多年了。我們透過一些收購實現了垂直整合生產，這可以追溯到幾十年前。這裡承載著我們許多歷史。我們了解地下情況。

We really like the quality of the subsurface and our position in the Vaca Muerta both in the South at Loma Campana, where we're partnered with YPF and up North at El Trapial, where we operate ourselves.

我們非常喜歡地下的質量，以及我們在瓦卡穆埃爾塔地區的地理位置，無論是在南部的洛馬坎帕納（我們與 YPF 合作）還是在北部的埃爾特拉皮亞爾（我們自己運營）。

I'll also say it was encouraging to see the support for present Malay in the recent election. We've been pleased with some of the macro sign posts in Argentina that have improved since the current administration took office in 2023, efforts to stabilize the banking system to reduce or remove capital controls, lower inflation, invest in regional infrastructure. Those are the types of policy reforms that can make Argentina more attractive for investment and more competitive within our portfolio.

我還要說，在最近的選舉中看到當代馬來人獲得支持，這令人鼓舞。自本屆政府於 2023 年上任以來，阿根廷的一些宏觀指標有所改善，我們對此感到欣慰，例如努力穩定銀行體系、減少或取消資本管制、降低通貨膨脹以及投資區域基礎設施。這些政策改革能夠使阿根廷對投資更具吸引力，並在我們的投資組合中更具競爭力。

We don't really have a change in our near-term plans. We want to continue to see some of these signposts evolve. But we like the quality of the rock. We have seen some modest growth this year with kind of 25,000 barrels a day expected in 2025. We're taking lessons and talent and technology from these other basins to Argentina to approve outcomes.

我們的近期計劃並沒有什麼改變。我們希望繼續看到這些標誌物不斷發展演變。但我們喜歡這種岩石的品質。今年我們看到了一些溫和的成長，預計到 2025 年將達到每天 25,000 桶左右。我們正在將其他盆地的經驗、人才和技術帶到阿根廷，以驗證成果。

And with continued progress in the policy arena, this could compete for capital very effectively as we go forward. We certainly hope that it does. There's a lot of running room. I'm not going to quantify it, but it's got -- it's certainly got upside because it's got scale, as you say, and the quality of the rock is highly competitive. So the DJ might not be a bad analog, but we're going to be 1 step at a time.

隨著政策領域的不斷進步，未來它將能夠非常有效地爭取資本。我們當然希望如此。還有很大的發展空間。我不會量化它，但它肯定有上升空間，因為它規模龐大，正如你所說，而且岩石的質量也極具競爭力。所以，DJ或許是一個不錯的類比，但我們要一步一步來。

James West, Melius Research.

James West，Melius Research。

Quick question on the Permian for you. I'm curious, as other operators are dropping CapEx dropping rigs, dropping frac spreads, you guys recently had 1 million barrels a day. You're having a lot of success there. What's the differentiator on your operations versus, say, the smaller peers?

關於二疊紀盆地，我有個問題想請教您。我很好奇，當其他業者都在削減資本支出、減少鑽井平台、減少壓裂設備投入時，你們最近每天的產量卻達到了 100 萬桶。你在那裡取得了巨大的成功。與規模較小的同業相比，貴公司營運的優勢是什麼？

Yes. Well, welcome, James. It's nice to hear your voice, and we look forward to seeing you in New York in a couple of weeks. Look, we operate on a long-term plan. We've got a factory or a manufacturing type approach to developing this asset.

是的。歡迎你，詹姆斯。很高興聽到你的聲音，我們期待幾週後在紐約見到你。你看，我們實行的是長期規劃。我們採用工廠化或製造型的方法來開發這項資產。

We plan our work and work the plan. We don't whipsaw much on near-term commodity market dynamics, smaller operators that may be not in the same balance sheet position, may not have a diversified portfolio, may have other financial constraints. Can operate -- may operate differently. We just can find that a continued steady, consistent manufacturing approach allows us to pilot and trial new techniques, new technologies continue to improve. And we just grind out better efficiency and productivity each and every day.

我們制定工作計劃，並按計劃執行。我們不會過度受近期大宗商品市場動態的影響，規模較小的業者可能資產負債表狀況不同，投資組合可能不夠多元化，也可能有其他財務限制。可以運行——但運行方式可能不同。我們發現，持續穩定、一致的生產方式使我們能夠試行和試驗新技術，新技術也得以不斷改進。我們每天都在努力提高效率和生產力。

And so we're 40% more productive on drilling wells than we were just a few years ago. The same thing on completions. And I think the scale and the steady approach to development yields the steady improvement. And I think smaller companies just don't quite have the same ability to do that without having to reset the program. But look, I'll comment quickly on our NOJV.

因此，我們現在的鑽井效率比幾年前提高了 40%。完成交易時也是如此。我認為，這種規模化和穩定發展的方式才能帶來穩定的進步。我認為規模較小的公司不太具備這樣的能力，如果不重置程序，就無法做到這一點。但是，我先簡單評論一下我們的 NOJV。

We partner with some of the largest operators in the basin. And we're not seeing a lot of change in activity levels there at this point. Their activities remain aligned with our business plan. We've got very good line of sight on the 2025 performance through the balance of the year and pretty good line of sight on 2026 production where we've got plans that we've got visibility of wells that are either online or under construction today, AFEs that are already being processed for 2026. And so at least relative to our performance, there are not signs that we would see the NOJV piece of our business significantly constrained or contracting as we go through next year.

我們與盆地內一些最大的營運商建立了合作關係。目前來看，那裡的活動水準並沒有太大變化。他們的活動始終與我們的商業計劃保持一致。我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的業績有非常清晰的預期，對 2026 年的產量也有相當清晰的預期，我們已經制定了計劃，可以清楚地看到目前已上線或正在建設中的油井，以及正在處理 2026 年的 AFE（授權支出申請）。因此，至少相對於我們的業績而言，沒有跡象表明我們明年的業務中 NOJV 部分會受到顯著限製或萎縮。

I would like to thank everyone for your time today. We appreciate your interest in Chevron and your participation on today's call, and we look forward to seeing you in a few weeks. Please stay safe and healthy. Katie, back to you.

感謝大家今天抽出時間。我們感謝您對雪佛龍的關注以及您參加今天的電話會議，並期待幾週後與您再次見面。請注意安全，保持健康。凱蒂，把鏡頭交還給你。

Thank you. This concludes Chevron's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。雪佛龍2025年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。