雪佛龍 (CVX) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I'll be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to Chevron's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早安.我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。歡迎參加雪佛龍 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference call over to the Head of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Jake Spiering. Please go ahead.

現在，我將電話會議轉交給雪佛龍公司投資者關係主管傑克‧斯皮林先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Katie. Welcome to Chevron's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. I'm Jake Spiering, Head of Investor Relations. Our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth; and our CFO, Eimear Bonner, are on the call with me today. We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron's website. Before we begin, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，凱蒂。歡迎參加雪佛龍 2025 年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。我是投資者關係主管傑克‧斯皮林 (Jake Spiering)。我們的董事長兼執行長 Mike Wirth；和我們的財務長 Eimear Bonner 今天和我一起通話了。我們將參考雪佛龍網站上的幻燈片和準備好的演講稿。在我們開始之前，請注意本簡報包含估計、預測和其他前瞻性陳述。

A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to this presentation. Please review the cautionary statement and additional information presented on slide 2.

非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的對帳表可在本簡報的附錄中找到。請查看投影片 2 上的警告聲明和其他資訊。

Now I will turn it over to Mike.

現在我將把時間交給麥克。

Thanks, Jake. This quarter, Chevron delivered strong performance and advanced our plans to further strengthen the company over the near and long term. This included multiple project start-ups and asset divestitures. Our advantaged portfolio underpins a track record of consistently rewarding shareholders through the cycle. Cash returned to shareholders has exceeded $5 billion for 12 consecutive quarters. In the first quarter, we returned $6.9 billion through dividends and buybacks. We also acquired nearly 5% of Hess's common shares and look forward to completing the merger in the coming months.

謝謝，傑克。本季度，雪佛龍業績表現強勁，並推進了我們近期和長期進一步加強公司實力的計劃。其中包括多個項目啟動和資產剝離。我們的優勢投資組合為整個週期中持續回報股東的績效奠定了基礎。連續12季返還股東的現金超過50億美元。第一季度，我們透過股利和回購返還了 69 億美元。我們還收購了赫斯近 5% 的普通股，並期待在未來幾個月內完成合併。

Recent macro uncertainty underscores the importance of cost and capital discipline, both core to Chevron's leadership. Our 2025 CapEx and affiliate CapEx budgets represent a $2 billion reduction from last year, and we've targeted $2 billion to $3 billion in structural cost savings to be delivered by the end of next year. Chevron has a proven track record of managing through uncertainty in commodity cycles, and with long-standing financial priorities as our guide, we're well positioned to win in any environment.

最近的宏觀不確定性凸顯了成本和資本紀律的重要性，這兩者都是雪佛龍領導地位的核心。我們的 2025 年資本支出和附屬資本支出預算比去年減少了 20 億美元，我們的目標是到明年年底實現 20 億至 30 億美元的結構性成本節約。雪佛龍在應對大宗商品週期不確定性方面有著良好的記錄，並且以長期的財務優先事項為指導，我們在任何環境中都處於有利地位，能夠取勝。

We are focused on execution to unlock industry-leading cash flow growth. At TCO, we reached nameplate capacity in just 30 days, significantly ahead of plan. We expect cash distributions from TCO to increase going forward, including a $1 billion loan repayment in the third quarter. In the Gulf of America, we achieved first oil at Ballymore this month. This is the latest in a series of major project startups within the past year, and they are expected to increase production to 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026.

我們專注於執行，以釋放業界領先的現金流成長。在 TCO，我們僅用 30 天就達到了額定產能，大大提前了計劃。我們預計 TCO 的現金分配未來將會增加，包括第三季 10 億美元的貸款償還。在美國灣，我們本月在巴利莫爾開採了第一批石油。這是過去一年內啟動的一系列重大項目中的最新一個，預計到 2026 年產量將提高到每天 30 萬桶油當量。

The expansion of our Pasadena refinery has further strengthened our Gulf Coast value chain, and we made good progress on our asset sale program, achieving premium valuations, while retaining future upside in East Texas gas assets that could deliver over $1 billion in value at today's prices. In February, we announced senior leadership appointments and changes to our operating model to enable more efficient execution. We're also expanding our pipeline of future opportunities, adding more than 11 million net exploration acres since the start of last year, advancing our gigawatt scale power solutions venture to support the US AI data center build-out and participating in a pipeline project to increase export capacity in Argentina.

帕薩迪納煉油廠的擴建進一步加強了我們的墨西哥灣沿岸價值鏈，我們的資產出售計劃取得了良好進展，實現了溢價估值，同時保留了東德克薩斯州天然氣資產的未來上漲空間，按今天的價格計算，其價值可能超過 10 億美元。今年 2 月，我們宣布了高層領導的任命以及營運模式的變革，以實現更有效率的執行。我們也正在擴大未來的機會，自去年年初以來增加了超過 1,100 萬英畝的淨勘探面積，推進千兆瓦級電力解決方案項目，以支持美國人工智慧資料中心的建設，並參與管道項目以增加阿根廷的出口能力。

Now I'll turn it over to Eimear, to go over the financials.

現在我會把時間交給 Eimear，來討論一下財務狀況。

Thanks, Mike. For the first quarter, Chevron reported earnings of $3.5 billion or $2 per share. Adjusted earnings were $3.8 billion or $2.18 per share.

謝謝，麥克。雪佛龍報告第一季收益為 35 億美元，即每股 2 美元。調整後收益為 38 億美元，即每股 2.18 美元。

Included in the quarter were special items totaling $175 million. Legal and tax charges were partially offset by the fair value measurement of the Hess shares. Warranty effects decreased earnings by $138 million. Organic CapEx was $3.5 billion, our lowest quarterly total in two years. Inorganic CapEx was approximately $400 million, primarily related to investment in our Power Solutions partnership. Chevron generated cash flow from operations of $7.6 billion, excluding working capital.

本季包括總計 1.75 億美元的特殊項目。法律和稅收費用被赫斯股票的公允價值計量部分抵銷。保固效應導致收益減少 1.38 億美元。有機資本支出為 35 億美元，這是我們兩年來最低的季度總額。無機資本支出約為 4 億美元，主要用於對我們的電源解決方案合作夥伴關係的投資。雪佛龍的營運活動現金流為 76 億美元（不含營運資金）。

Working capital was primarily tax payments related to the sale of our Canadian assets that completed in the fourth quarter of 2024. We expect our working capital unwind of $1 billion over the remainder of the year. In the quarter, we issued new long-term debt of $5.5 billion. The purchase of Hess shares is expected to reduce the number of Chevron shares issued at closing by approximately $16 million. Compared with last quarter, adjusted earnings were $200 million higher. Adjusted upstream earnings were flat to last quarter, higher realizations and timing effects were offset by lower liftings and lower affiliate earnings mainly from higher DD&A at TCO.

營運資金主要是與 2024 年第四季完成的出售加拿大資產有關的稅金。我們預計今年剩餘時間內我們的營運資金將減少 10 億美元。本季度，我們發行了 55 億美元的新長期債務。此次收購赫斯股份預計將使雪佛龍在交易結束時發行的股份數量減少約 1,600 萬美元。與上一季相比，調整後的收益增加了 2 億美元。調整後的上游收益與上一季持平，較高的實現率和時間效應被較低的提升率和較低的附屬收益所抵消，這主要源於 TCO 較高的 DD&A。

Adjusted downstream earnings were higher due to improved refining margins and lower turnarounds and maintenance. First quarter oil equivalent production was flat to last quarter. Production from the future project at TCO and recent project start-ups in the Gulf of America offset impacts from asset sales. We expect growth towards a sustained 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day to resume in the Permian in the second quarter with higher frac activity.

由於煉油利潤率提高以及週轉和維護成本降低，調整後的下游收益增加。第一季石油當量產量與上一季持平。TCO 未來專案的生產和美國灣近期啟動的專案抵消了資產出售的影響。我們預計，隨著壓裂活動的增加，二疊紀盆地的石油產量將在第二季恢復成長，達到每天 100 萬桶的持續成長。

Chevron's strategy and financial priorities remain consistent, and our track record is proven. We've grown our dividend for 38 consecutive years through multiple commodity cycles, leading our peers and growth over the last decade. We've built a resilient upstream portfolio that leads our peers in breakeven. We're delivering growth projects that are expected to generate an incremental $9 billion of free cash flow in 2026 (technical difficulty) dollar Brent. Our capital program is as flexible and efficient as it's ever been, with the majority of our 2025 span directed to short-cycle assets and soon to be online deepwater projects such as those in the Gulf of America and Eastern Mediterranean.

雪佛龍的策略和財務重點保持一致，我們的業績記錄也得到了證明。在多個商品週期中，我們連續 38 年增加股息，在過去十年中領先同業並保持成長。我們建立了具有韌性的上游投資組合，在盈虧平衡方面領先於同行。我們正在進行的成長項目預計將在 2026 年（技術難度）產生 90 億美元的增量自由現金流（以布蘭特原油價格計算）。我們的資本計畫一如既往地靈活高效，2025 年的大部分資金將用於短週期資產和即將上線的深水項目，例如美國灣和東地中海的項目。

Our balance sheet remains strong with net debt ratio of 14%, well below our target range of 20% to 25%. We've repurchased shares 18 of the last 22 years and bought back at record levels in the past two years. We provided a guidance range for annual buybacks of $10 billion to $20 billion depending on market conditions more than two years ago. That guidance remains unchanged. In line with the current macro environment, we expect share repurchases to be $2.5 billion to $3 billion in the second quarter.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，淨負債率為 14%，遠低於我們的目標範圍 20% 至 25%。在過去的 22 年中，我們有 18 年回購了股票，並且在過去兩年中回購量達到了創紀錄的水平。兩年多前，我們根據市場狀況提供了每年 100 億美元至 200 億美元的回購指引範圍。該指導意見保持不變。根據目前的宏觀環境，我們預計第二季的股票回購額將達到 25 億至 30 億美元。

I'll now hand it off to Jake.

我現在將其交給傑克。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Additional guidance can be found in the appendix to this presentation and the slides and other information posted on chevron.com. We are now ready to take your questions. (Event Instructions) We will do our best to get all of your questions answered. Katie, please open the lines.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。您可以在本簡報的附錄以及 chevron.com 上發布的幻燈片和其他資訊中找到更多指導。我們現在準備好回答你們的問題。（活動說明）我們將盡力回答您的所有問題。凱蒂，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的 Neil Mehta。

Mike, I know you were in Kazakhstan a couple of weeks ago. So I'd love a full rundown of your perspective on PCO, specifically, the startup looks like that has gone well. Early discussions around the concession extension and then your perspective around production levels and risk of curtailment.

麥克，我知道你幾週前去過哈薩克。因此，我很想全面了解您對 PCO 的看法，具體來說，這家新創公司看起來進展順利。早期討論圍繞特許權延期，然後討論您對生產水平和減產風險的看法。

Okay. Well, thanks, Neil. First of all, I am really pleased with the commissioning and start-up performance at the Future Growth Project.

好的。好吧，謝謝，尼爾。首先，我對未來成長專案的調試和啟動表現感到非常滿意。

It was a world-class ramp. We achieved nameplate capacity in less than 30 days. This was due to extensive testing of equipment during the commissioning phase, leveraging a lot of the same people, procedures and other practices that were put in service for the wellhead pressure management project over the prior 12 months, applying learnings from some of our other major capital start-up projects over the years.

這是一個世界級的坡道。我們在不到 30 天的時間內就達到了額定產能。這是因為在調試階段對設備進行了廣泛的測試，利用了過去 12 個月在井口壓力管理專案中投入使用的許多相同的人員、程序和其他實踐，並應用了多年來我們從其他一些主要資本啟動專案中獲得的經驗。

We brought in experience leaders from the existing operations that are familiar with the field, with the operating conditions and people that have participated in other start-ups. So it was just very, very well executed. We'll continue in the short term to do performance testing of major equipment under actual operating conditions, process optimization, et cetera. So we are very, very pleased with that start-up and the performance to date.

我們從現有營運中引進了熟悉該領域、營運條件和曾參與其他新創企業的經驗豐富的領導者。所以它執行得非常非常好。我們短期內也會繼續對主要設備進行實際運作條件下的效能測試、製程最佳化等。因此，我們對這次啟動以及迄今為止的表現非常滿意。

I did travel to Kazakhstan last month and I had an opportunity to meet with President Tokayev. We had a very good visit. We talked about our historic partnership. We talked about our investments in the country and how they've delivered value over the last three decades plus. And with the project behind us, we did turn our discussion to the future. And there was mutual intent expressed to negotiate an agreement which extends the concession beyond 2033.

我上個月確實去了哈薩克斯坦，並有機會會見了託卡耶夫總統。我們的訪問非常愉快。我們談論了我們歷史性的夥伴關係。我們談到了我們在該國的投資以及它們在過去三十多年如何創造價值。隨著專案結束，我們將討論轉向了未來。雙方均表示有意透過談判達成協議，將特許權期限延長至2033年後。

I took away a very positive outlook on that. We think it's in everyone's best interest to try to complete these negotiations in a timely manner. That said, these are complex discussions. They do take some time to complete, and we'll provide updates on that as appropriate as those efforts advance.

我對此抱持非常正面的看法。我們認為，及時完成這些談判符合每個人的最佳利益。話雖如此，這些都是複雜的討論。它們確實需要一些時間才能完成，並且我們會隨著這些工作的進展適時提供更新資訊。

Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jean Ann Salisbury。

A lot has been going on in the California refining market. With the recently announced competitor closures of refineries, how are you thinking about your position there?

加州煉油市場最近發生了很多事情。隨著最近競爭對手宣布關閉煉油廠，您如何看待自己在那裡的地位？

Yes. So we've got a strong position. We've got two refineries that have good scale, good complexity. We've got strong integrated value chains with a strong brand in the marketplace. I'm not surprised to see the announcements that have come out. We've been pretty vocal that the policies coming out of the state of Sacramento -- out of the state and out of Sacramento particularly make it nearly impossible to invest in California going forward. The result of that has been significantly higher cost for consumers than in the rest of the country.

是的。因此我們擁有強勢地位。我們有兩家規模大、結構複雜的煉油廠。我們擁有強大的綜合價值鍊和市場上強大的品牌。看到這些公告我並不感到驚訝。我們一直直言不諱，表示薩克拉門托州出台的政策——尤其是該州和薩克拉門托出台的政策使得未來在加州投資幾乎不可能。結果是，消費者的成本明顯高於全國其他地區。

There is the risk that supply of fuels is going to be tighter -- and that creates future risk. On the last call, I said some of these policies, including the state inserting itself into operational matters like planning turnarounds, I think, is an unwise move. I think central planning of the economy hasn't worked in other social estates and it won't work in California is my prediction. We do not have any announcements on our refineries at this time.

燃料供應有可能變得更加緊張——這將帶來未來的風險。在上次通話中，我說過，我認為其中一些政策，包括國家介入諸如規劃週轉等營運事務，是不明智的舉動。我認為中央計畫經濟在其他社會階層中沒有發揮作用，我預測它在加州也不會起作用。目前我們還沒有關於煉油廠的任何公告。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

I just wanted to go back to the financial framework and the decision to slow down the buyback today. If I look at the last 12 months, the payout ratio has been almost 100%, and that was obviously an oil price of much higher than it is today. So I'm just trying to reconcile how our cash generation would look at 60% or maybe below and how I reconcile that with be the low end of the $10 billion to $20 billion range because to me, it looks like the bottom end of the range should maybe be lower than that $10 billion. So how are you thinking between executing the buyback on a consistent basis and then obviously leaning on the balance sheet because that balance sheet has allowed you to do countercyclical deals like mobile and things like that. So I appreciate some color on that.

我今天只是想回顧一下財務框架以及減緩回購的決定。如果我回顧過去 12 個月，股息支付率幾乎達到 100%，而且當時的油價顯然比現在高得多。因此，我只是試圖協調我們的現金產生率如何達到 60% 或更低，以及如何將其與 100 億美元至 200 億美元範圍的低端相協調，因為對我來說，該範圍的底端可能應該低於 100 億美元。那麼，您如何考慮在持續執行回購和明顯依賴資產負債表之間做出選擇，因為資產負債表允許您進行逆週期交易，例如行動交易等。因此我很欣賞這一點。

Yes. Thanks, Raj. I'll take you back to our long-standing financial priorities. The first priority is to grow the dividend. We've increased that for 38 years in a row, a 5% increase earlier this year. Second is to invest in the business. We've been very disciplined with capital, lowered organic capital by $1 billion this year and affiliate capital by another $1 billion this year, keeping a strong balance sheet, 14% net debt to a AA credit rating, which is something very few companies in any industry carry. And then buybacks with a through-the-cycle approach.

是的。謝謝，拉傑。我將帶您回顧我們長期以來的財務重點。首要任務是增加股利。我們已經連續 38 年增加這一數字，今年稍早增加了 5%。第二是投資業務。我們對資本非常嚴格，今年將有機資本降低了 10 億美元，將附屬資本降低了 10 億美元，保持了強勁的資產負債表，淨債務為 14%，信用評級為 AA，這是任何行業中很少有公司能達到的。然後採用整個週期的方法進行回購。

We've repurchased shares in 18 of the last 22 years, including through COVID, through the financial crisis. And more than two years ago, we announced or we introduced guidance on the buybacks with a range of $10 billion to $20 billion based on a view of the external environment. The high end of that was premised on a strong outlook on the commodity. The lower end of that was based on a weaker outlook for the commodity. And I think it was 85-ish on the top end and 60-ish on the bottom end. And so for most of the last two years, we've been in the upper portion of that range the market has moved to the lower portion of that range.

在過去的 22 年中，我們有 18 年回購了股票，其中包括新冠疫情期間和金融危機期間。兩年多前，我們根據對外部環境的觀察，宣布或引入了 100 億美元至 200 億美元的回購指引。這一高端走勢建立在對大宗商品強勁前景的前提上。這一較低水準是基於對大宗商品較弱的前景預測。我認為最高是 85 左右，最低是 60 左右。因此，在過去兩年的大部分時間裡，我們一直處於該範圍的上限，而市場已經轉向該範圍的下限。

And our guidance remains within that range. So I think it's important to look at this through the cycle. The rate at which we're buying shares back now is higher than at any point in our history other than the last three years. In '22, '23 and '24 were the highest buyback years we've had. Before that, we never even had a year that got above 8. And we've been much stronger than that here subsequently and continue to do that forward. So the range is unchanged.

我們的指導仍在這個範圍內。所以我認為從整個週期來看這個問題很重要。我們現在回購股票的速度比過去三年以外的任何時候都要高。2022、2023 和 2024 年是我們回購額最高的年份。在此之前，我們從來沒有一年超過 8 的記錄。此後，我們變得更加強大，並將繼續這樣做。所以範圍沒有改變。

We've also always said that we would move back towards a 20% to 25% net debt ratio through the cycle. And so this move is consistent with that. Last thing I'll say is -- we've been through these cycles before. We know what to do. We know how to manage it. And we know that opportunity can present itself as you referenced, and we will remain attentive to those kinds of opportunities if and when they arise, and we'll retain the financial strength to consider them.

我們也一直表示，我們將在整個週期中將淨債務比率回升至 20% 至 25%。因此這項措施與此是一致的。我要說的最後一件事是——我們以前經歷過這些週期。我們知道該做什麼。我們知道如何管理它。我們知道，正如您所說，機會是可以出現的，如果機會出現，我們會密切關注，並且會保留財務實力來考慮這些機會。

Biraj, I might just add a little bit on your point on cash generation. It's 60 as we guided to in the last quarter, we're poised to deliver a leading free cash flow growth, $10 billion of incremental free cash flow growth at 70. That's $9 billion at 60. And the key catalysts that deliver that are the start-ups of kind of our major projects and the achievement of major milestones and all of that is well underway and then the completion of our cost reduction program as well that's off and running. So just the cash generation, we feel that that is very resilient even at lower prices, and we're prepared.

Biraj，我可能只是想就你關於現金產生的觀點做一點補充。正如我們上個季度所預測的那樣，我們準備好實現領先的自由現金流成長，即在 70 時實現 100 億美元的增量自由現金流成長。也就是說，60 歲時擁有 90 億美元。實現這一目標的關鍵催化劑是我們主要項目的啟動和主要里程碑的實現，所有這些都在順利進行中，然後是我們的削減成本計劃的完成，該計劃也已啟動並運行。因此，就現金產生而言，我們認為即使在價格較低的情況下也具有很強的彈性，我們已經準備好了。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Sorry, I was on mute, schoolboy error. I'm so sorry about that. Josh, I was going to ask about the macro, but I didn't want to ask such an asking question, but you seem to be in the crosshairs of probably the two most important macro stories in the market right now. And I just love your perspective on it. The first is obviously Venezuela and the potential loss of production there. And the other is what appears to be an impending market share battle going with the declaration of cooperation, single-handedly seemingly pointed at Tengiz.

抱歉，我靜音了，小學生錯誤。我對此感到非常抱歉。喬希，我本來想問一下宏觀問題，但我不想問這樣的問題，但你似乎正處於目前市場上兩個最重要的宏觀故事的焦點之中。我非常喜歡你對此的看法。首先顯然是委內瑞拉及其潛在的生產損失。而另一邊，隨著合作宣言的發布，一場看似迫在眉睫的市場份額爭奪戰似乎已經指向了田吉茲。

In other words, the start-up of production is exacerbated Kazakhstan’s over production against their quota and of course, that seems to be what's driving these accelerated decisions by OPEC+. So I guess my question is, can you offer any perspective on the physical changes you're seeing in your business in Venezuela. And when you met with the President, was there any consideration whatsoever of curtailment to try and help meet their quotas? Because, frankly, if the answer is no, it's pretty varied for the oil price.

換句話說，生產的啟動加劇了哈薩克超出其配額的產量，當然，這似乎也是推動 OPEC+ 加速做出這些決定的原因。所以我想我的問題是，您能否就您在委內瑞拉的業務中看到的物理變化提供任何看法。當您與總統會面時，是否考慮過削減產量以幫助他們達到配額？因為，坦白說，如果答案是否定的，那麼油價的變化就相當大。

Yes. So I'll start with Venezuela, Doug. I think the news coverage on this has been pretty accurate. We've got a long history in the country and believe that our presence has been a good thing for Venezuela has been a good thing for the US. We've been operating under different forms of sanctions from OFAC -- going back to the first Trump administration through Biden administration and ongoing under the current one.

是的。那我就從委內瑞拉開始吧，道格。我認為有關此事的新聞報導相當準確。我們在這個國家有著悠久的歷史，並且相信我們的存在對委內瑞拉和美國來說都是一件好事。我們一直在 OFAC 不同形式的製裁下運作——從第一屆川普政府到拜登政府，一直到現任政府。

Recent changes have resulted in us being unable to pay our tax and royalty payments for liftings that were being made to bring Venezuelan oil to the US. And so those liftings have come to a halt. The barrels are still flowing. There's going to other markets. China is the biggest importer of Venezuelan oil. Their media reports that government officials from Venezuela have been in China this week discussing even more sales to China. Our current license reaches its end on May 27. We're in dialogue with the government on how that license will be modified and extended if, in fact, that's what they choose to do, and that's certainly been the history over the many years I just referenced.

最近的變化導致我們無法支付將委內瑞拉石油運往美國的稅款和特許權使用費。因此這些拆除工作已經停止。桶裡的水還在流。還有去其他市場的。中國是委內瑞拉石油的最大進口國。據媒體報道，委內瑞拉政府官員本週已訪問中國，討論增加對華出口。我們的現行許可證將於 5 月 27 日到期。我們正在與政府進行對話，討論如何修改和延長該許可證（如果他們確實選擇這樣做的話），而這正是我剛才提到的多年來的歷史。

So we'll share more about that as we as we know more. But the barrels are flowing. They're just not flowing to the US today. On OPEC+ and Kazakhstan, there really were not discussions of that. We don't engage in discussions about OPEC or OPEC+ targets. And my discussion with the present focused on A, the start-up of the project, which has been good; and B, the future.

因此，隨著我們了解更多信息，我們將分享更多相關信息。但桶子在流動。如今他們不再湧向美國了。關於 OPEC+ 和哈薩克斯坦，實際上並沒有討論過這方面的問題。我們不參與有關 OPEC 或 OPEC+ 目標的討論。而我與現在的討論主要集中在A，專案的啟動上，目前進展良好； B，未來。

And so the fact of the matter is the barrels we produce at TCO of high value to the government. They're important to their fiscal balance. And historically, those barrels have not been curtailed. Anything beyond that, I would refer you over to people that speak on behalf of OPEC+ or the countries.

事實上，我們以 TCO 生產的桶子對政府來說具有很高的價值。它們對於財政平衡很重要。從歷史上看，這些石油產量從未受到限制。除此之外，我建議您諮詢代表 OPEC+ 或各國發言的人士。

Lloyd Byrne, Jefferies.

勞埃德·伯恩（Lloyd Byrne），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

I was going to ask about the return of capital. And I think that's a really good answer you guys had. But let me try the Gulf of Mexico, the Ballymore is online. Can you just walk through the next steps to get to the 300,000 barrels a day? And are there any hurdles we have to look out for?

我正想問一下資本回報的問題。我認為你們的回答非常好。但是讓我試試墨西哥灣，Ballymore 是在線的。您能否簡單介紹一下實現每日 30 萬桶產量的後續步驟？我們需要注意哪些障礙？

Yes. We're -- as I said, we're very pleased with Ballymore. That project, in particular, has some of the most prolific wells that we've seen in the Gulf of American, frankly, well beyond that.

是的。正如我所說，我們對 Ballymore 非常滿意。特別是該項目，它擁有我們在美國灣見過的一些產量最高的油井，坦率地說，產量遠遠超出了這一點。

The expectation as we ramp up there is that we'll see 25,000 barrels a day flow from each of three wells. So 75,000 barrels a day of production from just three wells. We've got two of those wells online right now and ramping them up. The third one will come online later this year. The project has been executed on time, on budget and in just three years. They're also interestingly, some of the highest temperature wells we've ever seen, 325 degrees down to the formation, which other prolific fields in the Gulf of America have been at 275, 250, 225. So a very interesting field, a very prolific field Wale. I won't speak for the operator.

隨著產量不斷增加，我們預計三口油井每天的產量將達到 25,000 桶。因此，光是三口油井每天的產量就達到 75,000 桶。目前我們已經有兩口這樣的油井投入使用，並且正在加緊生產。第三個將於今年稍後上線。該專案僅用三年時間就按時、按預算完成了。有趣的是，這些油井的溫度是我們所見過的最高溫度，地層溫度高達 325 度，而美國灣其他產油田的溫度則分別為 275、250 和 225 度。所以這是一個非常有趣、非常多產的領域。我不會代表接線生發言。

I'll just say that the start-up there has been smooth, and we expect that to ramp through 2025, and I'd refer you to them for details. And at Anchor, we've got two wells online right now that are performing very well. We expect two additional wells to come online this year, one around midyear, one towards the end of the year and remaining wells to come online in '26 and '27. So at each project, we've got strong production flowing.

我只想說，那裡的啟動一直很順利，我們預計到 2025 年將會取得進展，我建議您向他們諮詢詳細資訊。在 Anchor，我們目前有兩口井在線，並且運作良好。我們預計今年將有另外兩口井投產，一口將在年中左右投產，一口將在年底投產，其餘井預計將於 26 年和 27 年投產。因此，在每個專案中，我們都有強大的生產流程。

We've got drilling activity and completion activity underway or in the queue, rigs, vessels, crews, all assigned to them. And so in the Gulf, weather can always be a bit of a risk. But other than that, from an execution standpoint, these are all three in a very good posture.

我們正在進行或正在排隊進行鑽井活動和完井活動，鑽孔機、船隻、船員都已分配給他們。因此，在墨西哥灣地區，天氣總是會帶來一些風險。但除此之外，從執行的角度來看，這三者都處於非常好的狀態。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德、派珀·桑德勒。

You've got a slide in the deck looking at Permian performance and the improvement you've seen there in the Delaware Basin in 2024. Can you talk about I mean, you talked about some of this in the past, but can you talk about what drove the difference, whether in terms of well mix, development strategy, completions, et cetera? And what you see as the potential implications for the 2025 program or outlook?

您在幻燈片中看到了二疊紀盆地的表現以及 2024 年特拉華盆地的改善情況。您能談談嗎？我的意思是，您過去曾談論過其中的一些內容，但您能談談造成這種差異的原因嗎？無論是在井組合、開發策略、完井等？您認為這對 2025 年計畫或展望有何潛在影響？

Yes. So just to ground everybody, roughly 80% of our development program last year was in the Delaware, and we saw a strong improvement in performance there versus the prior, in particular, the second Bone Spring in New Mexico outperformed expectations. We also had good performance in the Texas portion of the Delaware and the Wolfcamp C and the Wolfcamp A, which showed good year-on-year performance improvement.

是的。因此，為了讓大家有個大致的了解，我們去年大約 80% 的開發項目是在特拉華州進行的，與之前相比，我們看到那裡的業績有了很大的提高，特別是新墨西哥州的第二家 Bone Spring 的表現超出了預期。我們在特拉華州的德克薩斯州部分以及 Wolfcamp C 和 Wolfcamp A 也取得了良好的表現，同比業績有顯著提升。

So we expect 2025 type curves to look pretty similar to what we saw last year in the Delaware. And again, most of our program is in the Delaware, 85% as we look at 2025, so even a little bit more than we saw last year. Last thing maybe I'll say on that, Ryan, is sometimes we had questions when I meet with investors on gas oil ratio. We are right now seeing an oil cut that's somewhere in the range of 43% to 45%. We think that's going to continue as we move through the end of the decade.

因此，我們預計 2025 年的曲線將與我們去年在德拉瓦州看到的曲線非常相似。而且，我們的大部分項目都在特拉華州，預計到 2025 年將達到 85%，比去年還要多一點。瑞安，我最後要說的是，當我與投資者會面時，我們有時會對氣油比率產生疑問。我們目前看到的石油減產幅度在 43% 至 45% 之間。我們認為，隨著本世紀末的到來，這種趨勢也將持續。

It may move around a little bit by quarter based on POP timing and geography. But we expect that to be pretty stable. And also on New Mexico, we're going to see more POPs into Mexico this year than we did last year. And overall, those tend to be bigger wells. They're more productive wells. They produce more oil. They also produce more gas. But very pleased with performance in the Permian and feel very good about the outlook for this year.

根據 POP 的時間和地理位置，它可能會每季略有變動。但我們預計它會相當穩定。同樣在新墨西哥州，今年我們將看到流入墨西哥的 POP 數量比去年更多。整體而言，這些井往往更大。它們是產量更高的油井。他們生產更多的石油。它們還會產生更多的氣體。但對二疊紀的表現非常滿意，對今年的前景感到非常樂觀。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

It seems like -- there's some good news from Cyprus. You guys signed with the government that to allow the gas project to go to proceed. Can you give us some idea that maybe update us on -- in terms of the timeline, what's the next step, the size of the project in terms of the gas warning? And any color that you can provide?

看起來——塞浦路斯有一些好消息。你們與政府簽署了協議，允許天然氣計畫繼續進行。您能否向我們提供一些想法，讓我們了解一下——就時間表而言，下一步是什麼，就氣體警告而言，項目的規模是多少？您能提供什麼顏色嗎？

Yes. You bet, Paul. I'll start by saying we're excited about our entire portfolio in the Eastern Mediterranean, and that is a tribute to the people at Noble. This is largely a legacy Noble Energy position. We've got some good exploration acreage in the offshore Egypt area that we brought to the table as well and the expectations for some exploration wells there in the coming couple of years.

是的。當然，保羅。首先我想說的是，我們對我們在東地中海的整個投資組合感到非常興奮，這是對 Noble 員工的讚揚。這在很大程度上是 Noble Energy 的傳統立場。我們在埃及近海地區擁有一些良好的勘探區域，並期望在未來幾年內在那裡鑽探一些勘探井。

But it was a nice milestone to see that we've got an agreed field development plan for Aphrodite, some updates to the PSA there. And the initial development plan, Paul, is going to be a flow production unit in the -- in Sipat Waters, production of about 800 million cubic feet of gas per day. The gas would flow to Egypt, a market that's growing and has a need for more gas. The demand there is very strong. We entered pre-FEED activities in the first quarter we're working to ensure that we can get competitive returns out of this project, there's some commercial work that needs to be done as well.

但看到我們達成了 Aphrodite 油田開發計劃並對那裡的 PSA 進行了一些更新，這是一個很好的里程碑。保羅，最初的開發計畫是在西帕特水域建立一個流動生產裝置，每天生產約 8 億立方英尺的天然氣。天然氣將流向埃及，這個市場正在成長，對天然氣的需求也更大。那裡的需求非常強勁。我們在第一季就進入了前期 FEED 活動，我們正在努力確保從這個專案中獲得有競爭力的回報，同時也需要做一些商業工作。

And all that needs to be done before we move to a potential FID. So -- we are again pleased that we've got an agreement on that. That gives you a little bit of the scale of the project in the first phase here, and we'll talk about it more as we move through the pre-FEED and into FEED.

在我們轉向潛在的 FID 之前，所有這些都是需要做的。所以——我們再次很高興就此達成協議。這讓您稍微了解第一階段的專案規模，我們將在前期 FEED 和後期 FEED 階段進一步討論。

Stephen Richardson, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬理查森 (Stephen Richardson)，Evercore ISI。

I was wondering if you could give us your -- curious on your recent thoughts on CPChem, obviously, in the middle of some pretty significant investments in that business through what looks to be a trough, at least in the olefins side of the business. But maybe your current thoughts on the business and then also how are you thinking about potentially maybe owning more of it over time and how that fits into your current thoughts?

我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您最近對 CPChem 的看法，顯然，在對該業務進行一些相當重大的投資的過程中，至少在業務的烯烴方面，這似乎是一個低谷。但也許您目前對這項業務的想法，以及您如何考慮隨著時間的推移可能擁有更多的業務，以及這如何與您目前的想法相符？

Sure. Thanks, Steve. Well, first of all, I'll say we like the longer-term fundamentals of the Chemicals business. We've been in a tough part of the cycle here recently as we've seen some capacity additions into the market. So it's going to take time for the market to absorb those. So we think we're still a few years away from returning to mid-cycle.

當然。謝謝，史蒂夫。嗯，首先，我想說我們看好化學品業務的長期基本面。最近，我們處於週期的艱難時期，因為我們看到市場上有一些產能增加。因此市場需要時間來吸收這些影響。因此我們認為距離重返中期還有幾年的時間。

But CPChem has been a great business for us, and we've got 25 years of history roughly now. And they've been a good operator. They've been a good project executor. It's a portfolio that's significantly advantaged due to their feedstock position, which is primarily ethane in the US Gulf Coast and the Middle East. They've had a very good low-cost operator. And we've got a couple of growth projects underway, one in Qatar, one in Texas, on track to come online end of '26, early '27-ish. And so it's been a very successful partnership for us over more than two decades.

但 CPChem 對我們來說一直是一項偉大的業務，至今已有大約 25 年的歷史。他們一直都是優秀的營運商。他們一直是優秀的專案執行者。由於其原料位置優越，此投資組合具有顯著優勢，原料主要是美國墨西哥灣沿岸和中東的乙烷。他們有一個非常優秀的低成本營運商。我們還有幾個成長項目正在進行中，一個在卡達，一個在德州，預計將於 26 年底或 27 年初上線。所以，二十多年來，我們的合作關係一直非常成功。

Getting a larger share of a business that you like is always something that you would take a look at. We have advised the partner in CPChem that we'd be interested in acquiring the other half at a reasonable value for both parties, and we'll see how that plays out.

獲得您喜歡的企業的更大份額始終是您願意考慮的事情。我們已經通知 CPChem 的合作夥伴，我們有興趣以對雙方都合理的價格收購另一半，我們將看看結果如何。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

瑞銀集團的喬希·西爾弗斯坦（Josh Silverstein）。

Chevron has a pretty unique asset in the Permian given your mix of operated, non-op and royalty volumes. Can you provide us some details as to what you're seeing across the non-op royalty side now and any reduction in activity there and how that may play into the kind of the plateau level for Chevron.

鑑於雪佛龍的營運、非營運和特許權使用費組合，其在二疊紀擁有相當獨特的資產。您能否向我們提供一些細節，說明您現在在非營運特許權使用費方面看到的情況以及那裡的活動是否有所減少，以及這對雪佛龍的平台期水平有何影響。

Yes. So at this point, we don't really see any actions that have been taken to pull back by our partners. We haven't always identified exactly who our partners are, but three-quarters of our production come from larger mega-cap companies, people that you cover and know. And most of that production comes in the -- in core parts of the basin, areas that have got low breakevens and are very proven.

是的。因此，目前我們並沒有看到我們的合作夥伴採取任何撤退行動。我們並不總是能準確地知道我們的合作夥伴是誰，但我們四分之三的產品來自大型超級公司，也就是您所關注和認識的人。大部分產量來自盆地的核心部分，這些區域的損益平衡點較低，而且已經得到充分證實。

So on NOJV, we've got a line of sight to essentially all of the AFEs and most of the POPs have already spud. The planned POPs for this year in our NOJV, the wells have already been spud. So I think there's a pretty high degree of confidence that we're going to see that go.

因此，在 NOJV 上，我們已經看到了基本上所有的 AFE，並且大多數 POP 已經開鑽。我們的 NOJV 今年計劃的 POP 井已經開鑽。因此我認為我們有很高的信心看到這一進展。

On royalty, maybe not quite as high a number, but close on POPs that are also in execution. So we do have interest in, I want to say it's 1 in every 4 acres in the Permian. And a lot of that exposure gives us the ability to see exactly what's going on with other operators. And at this point, I think people are -- what we see as people pretty well stay in the course.

就版稅而言，可能數字沒有那麼高，但與同樣在執行的 POP 相比，數字很接近。所以我們確實有興趣，我想說二疊紀每 4 英畝就有 1 英畝。透過大量的接觸，我們能夠清楚地了解其他業者的動態。在這一點上，我認為人們——我們看到人們很好地堅持了下來。

Lucas Herrmann, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯·赫爾曼。

Probably what -- just a question on cash flow for Eimear. It looks as though the equity contribution or dividend contribution that you're anticipating this year is now $2 billion relative to -- I think you had guided towards $1 billion of excess, et cetera, the full year stage. Am I correct that you've changed your expectation? And if so, is that a consequence of higher expected dividends? Or I don't think it's a change in lower net income. So any comment -- appreciated.

可能只是關於 Eimear 現金流的一個問題。看起來，您今年預計的股權貢獻或股息貢獻現在是 20 億美元，而我認為您已經預計全年將有 10 億美元的超額貢獻等等。我是否正確地理解了您改變期望的意思？如果是這樣，這是預期股利增加的結果嗎？或者我不認為這是淨收入降低的變化。因此，任何評論我都表示感謝。

Yes. Lucas, I think maybe the two things to point are the impact of the TCO DD&A. So given that we started up the project in January and ramped up ahead of our original schedule, the earnings guidance going forward reflects the DD&A update. In addition to that, we've got some CPChem outlook for margins has been updated as well. So those will be the two main factors. Everything else is consistent.

是的。盧卡斯，我認為也許需要指出的兩件事是 TCO DD&A 的影響。因此，鑑於我們在一月份啟動了該項目並提前完成了原定計劃，未來的盈利預期反映了 DD&A 的更新。除此之外，我們也更新了 CPChem 的利潤前景。所以這將是兩個主要因素。其餘一切都一致。

And Lucas, the affiliate dividend guidance for the full year is unchanged as it was. So it's just a difference between the 2.

盧卡斯，全年的附屬公司股息指引維持不變。所以這只是兩者之間的差異。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo

羅傑‧里德，富國銀行

I guess, maybe with the macro in a lot of people's minds at risk of lower oil prices. Just wondering, Mike, with all the changes here or project completions, Gulf of Mexico, fairly essentially through its process, Kazakhstan up and running, the Permian kind of flat lining.

我想，也許很多人認為宏觀經濟面臨油價下跌的風險。麥克，我只是想知道，這裡的所有變化或項目完成情況，墨西哥灣，基本上通過了它的流程，哈薩克斯坦啟動並運行，二疊紀的平坦襯砌。

When we think about the resiliency of Chevron, of, say, a $50 oil world, what do you think has been sort of the change in the whether you want to call it a base decline rate or the sustaining CapEx? Like how should we think about kind of cash flows and cash CapEx commitments in a possibly softer oil price world.

當我們考慮雪佛龍的彈性時，比如說，在 50 美元的石油世界中，您認為發生了什麼樣的變化，無論您想稱之為基本遞減率還是持續資本支出？例如，在油價可能走軟的環境下，我們該如何看待現金流和現金資本支出承諾。

Yes. I mean there's two things that I might point to, Roger. Number 1 is we've got a portfolio now that has a much larger percentage of it in large and very flat production profile assets, i.e., low decline assets. So big LNG projects in Australia and Western Africa, the expansion of TCO. And frankly, the way we've been able in a very capital efficient way move towards kind of plateau-ish production with relatively highly efficient investments in some of the unconventionals.

是的。我的意思是，我可能會指出兩件事，羅傑。第一，在我們現在的投資組合中，大型且生產狀況非常平穩的資產（即低衰減資產）所佔比例要大得多。因此，澳洲和西非的大型液化天然氣項目，TCO的擴大。坦白說，我們能夠以非常有效率的資本方式，透過對一些非常規資源進行相對高效的投資，實現某種程度的穩定生產。

And so if I go back a decade ago, we were fighting decline, and that required a lot of capital investments and just to hold even, let alone to show some growth. And we've been showing growth here in recent years with a much lower capital budget. The second thing that's really important is the flexibility that we have in our capital budget. So we've already come down $1 billion from last year from $16 billion to $15 billion. Our CapEx as a percentage of cash from ops is, I think, the lowest in the industry.

所以，如果回顧十年前，我們正在與衰退作鬥爭，這需要大量的資本投資才能維持平衡，更不用說實現一些成長了。近年來，我們以較低的資本預算實現了成長。第二件真正重要的事情是我們的資本預算的靈活性。因此，我們已經比去年減少了 10 億美元，從 160 億美元減少到 150 億美元。我認為，我們的資本支出佔營運現金的百分比是業界最低的。

And almost two-thirds of our capital is either short-cycle shale or project that's -- project spend that's completing over the next year or so. And so we've got a lot of flexibility if we need to exercise that. We've shown, I would call discipline coming into this year by tightening our belt a notch and bringing capital down a little bit. But if we needed to bring capital down further, we certainly could do so. We showed in 2020, we started the year at a $20 billion capital budget. I think we finished the year at $12 billion. So we've got the ability to flex that capital if we need to. We've not made that decision at this point. But certainly, that's -- I would say those are the two big things that are different if you look back to days gone by.

我們幾乎三分之二的資本都是短週期頁岩或項目，這些項目支出將在未來一年左右完成。因此，如果我們需要行使這項權利，我們就有很大的彈性。我們已經證明，我認為今年我們會嚴格遵守紀律，勒緊褲帶，稍微減少資本。但如果我們需要進一步降低資本，當然可以這麼做。我們在 2020 年表明，我們年初的資本預算為 200 億美元。我認為今年我們的銷售額達到了 120 億美元。因此，如果需要，我們有能力靈活運用這些資本。目前我們還沒有做出這個決定。但可以肯定的是──如果你回顧過去，我想說這兩件大事已經有所不同。

Phillip Jungwirth, BMO.

菲利普·榮格沃思（BMO）。

Congrats on the start-up of Ballymore Anchor well before that. As we think about what's next in the Gulf of America, can you just talk about your optimism around future prospects, Paleogene or brownfield tiebacks. And generally, how do you see the cost structure or breakeven now for deepwater versus shale?

在此之前，我祝賀 Ballymore Anchor 的啟動。當我們思考美國灣的下一步發展時，您能否談談您對未來前景、古近紀或棕地回接的樂觀態度。整體而言，您如何看待深水油氣和頁岩油氣的成本結構或損益平衡？

Yes. So thanks for the congratulations. What I would say is in the relative near term, you're going to see us focus on infill and stage developments. We've got a long history here of projects that once we've got a new hub in place, they have multiple stages of development. We've seen that at Jack St. Malo at Tahiti, at Mad Dog and Perdido. And we're working on future state of some of these recent start-ups.

是的。謝謝你們的祝賀。我想說的是，在相對短期內，你會看到我們專注於填充和階段性發展。我們在這裡有著悠久的專案歷史，一旦我們建立了新的中心，它們就會進入多個開發階段。我們在塔希提島的傑克聖馬洛 (Jack St. Malo)、瘋狗 (Mad Dog) 和佩爾迪多 (Perdido) 都看到過這種情況。我們正在致力於研究一些新成立的公司的未來發展。

So an Anchor Phase 2, a Ballymore 2, a Whale 2. And I would fully expect that you'll see us extend the life of those projects with some highly efficient and very returns accretive further development. If you look at our exploration portfolio, 80% of it is within tieback range of existing hubs.

因此是 Anchor Phase 2、Ballymore 2、Whale 2。我完全希望您會看到我們透過一些高效且回報豐厚的進一步發展來延長這些項目的壽命。如果你看一下我們的勘探組合，你會發現其中 80% 都在現有樞紐的回接範圍內。

And so Ballymore is a great example of a strategy to really focus on identifying opportunities to develop accumulations that might not support a new greenfield development but are highly economic to tie in as a brownfield project. And so we'll continue to focus our exploration portfolio in that. We've had -- we've been a participant in a discovery that's already been announced earlier this year and are very optimistic about our exploration program. And then the other 20%, you would maybe describe as more frontier. Breakevens have come down a lot.

因此，巴利莫爾是一個很好的例子，它真正注重尋找開發積累的機會，這些積累可能不支持新的綠地開發，但作為棕地項目結合起來卻具有很高的經濟效益。因此，我們將繼續把我們的勘探投資組合重點放在該方面。我們參與了今年早些時候宣布的一項發現，並且對我們的勘探計劃非常樂觀。而另外 20%，你也許會將其描述為更具前沿性。損益平衡點已經下降了很多。

And there was a time again and maybe in kind of linking Roger's question about what's changed. A decade ago, we needed oil prices that were well north of what we see today to get very modest return. Development costs were up. They were in the 20s headed to the 30s and higher. We're now down in the teens and push into the low teens on development costs through a whole different approach to facility design and construction standardization.

又有一次，也許有點像是羅傑關於發生了什麼變化的問題。十年前，我們需要遠高於今天的油價才能獲得非常微薄的回報。開發成本上升。他們的年齡從 20 多歲到 30 多歲甚至更大。現在，我們透過採用一種完全不同的設施設計和施工標準化方法，將開發成本降至十幾美元，並努力將其推向十幾美元以下。

And so we've seen the breakevens there become very competitive, they had to because we had such good opportunities in other parts of our business. So we've got one of the best portfolios in the industry and Wood Mac data shows that we've got the lowest upstream breakeven in the industry. And I think a big part of that is what we've been able to see in deepwater development.

因此，我們看到那裡的損益平衡變得非常有競爭力，這是必須的，因為我們在業務的其他部分有如此好的機會。因此，我們擁有業內最好的投資組合之一，伍德麥肯茲數據顯示，我們擁有業內最低的上游損益平衡點。我認為其中很大一部分是我們在深水開發中所看到的。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

I want to ask about the progress on the Power Ventures. I mean it's clear that the AI power demand is not slowing down, and you guys have the timing advantage. How are the customer conversations going? You've spent $400 million of inorganic CapEx in the JV in 1Q. Just want to see how that spending trends over time, especially considering some of the inflationary pressure that we're hearing in the space?

我想問一下 Power Ventures 的進展。我的意思是，很明顯人工智慧電力需求並沒有放緩，而且你們擁有時間優勢。與客戶的對話進展如何？您在第一季已在合資企業中投入了 4 億美元的無機資本支出。只是想看看隨著時間的推移支出趨勢如何，特別是考慮到我們聽到的一些通膨壓力？

Yes. So we've been actively engaging with prospective customers and are still seeing very strong demand in those conversations. We're trying to narrow, frankly, because there are so many people that are interested in trying to partner up when you can move quickly as we can with these turbines. So we're also narrowing down the potential sites. We screened a lot of potential locations in different geographies around the country. We have narrowed those significantly and are moving towards engineering and EPC options on the sites that we find to work the best for us and for customers, which is an important part of that.

是的。因此，我們一直在積極與潛在客戶接觸，並且在這些對話中仍然看到非常強勁的需求。坦白說，我們正在努力縮小範圍，因為當你能像我們一樣快速利用這些渦輪機時，有太多的人有興趣嘗試合作。因此我們也正在縮小潛在站點的範圍。我們在全國不同地區篩選了很多潛在地點。我們已經大大縮小了範圍，並正在轉向我們認為對我們和客戶最有利的現場工程和 EPC 選項，這是其中很重要的一部分。

We're working toward an FID before the end of the year. As you note, speed to market is an important differentiator here we will remain disciplined. There are cost pressures on some of the components of building out a power complex like this. We've secured pricing on the turbines themselves. There's other elements of the buildouts that are also required and between market demand, potential tariffs and other effects. We have to keep an eye on that. So we're going to stay very disciplined because this needs to generate returns that will compete in our portfolio.

我們正在努力爭取在年底前做出最終決定。正如您所說，上市速度是一個重要的區別因素，我們將保持紀律。建造這樣的電力綜合體，其某些組成部分會面臨成本壓力。我們已經確定了渦輪機本身的價格。建設中還需要考慮其他因素，包括市場需求、潛在關稅和其他影響。我們必須密切注意這一點。因此，我們將保持高度自律，因為這需要產生能夠在我們的投資組合中競爭的回報。

And if we can achieve those kinds of returns. These projects will move forward. If we can't, we will need to look at our alternatives. But right now, I would say everything is moving fast, as you said. There's a tremendous amount of interest tremendous amount of activity. And I'm very pleased that we're in a first-mover position on this call it an early mover position.

如果我們能夠實現這樣的回報。這些項目將會繼續推進。如果我們不能，我們就需要考慮其他選擇。但現在，我想說一切都進展得很快，正如你所說。人們對此有著極大的興趣，也進行著大量的活動。我很高興我們在這方面處於先發優勢，可以稱之為先發優勢。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的戴文麥克德莫特。

So Mike, in your response to Roger's question before, you talked a bit about flexibility of the capital program, and Eimear, you had similar comments in your prepared remarks. Given the cash flow growth you've already highlighted the low upstream breakeven strength of the balance sheet, there's probably no need to make adjustments on capital even in somewhat softer oil prices probably more just about optimizing returns.

麥克，在你之前回答羅傑的問題時，你談到了資本計畫的靈活性，而艾米爾，你在準備好的發言中也發表了類似的評論。鑑於您已經強調的現金流成長，資產負債表的上游損益平衡強度較低，即使在油價略有走弱的情況下，也可能不需要對資本進行調整，而可能只是為了優化回報。

But I wanted to ask about how you think about some of the parameters or market conditions that might make you make some adjustments to some of your short-cycle investments in places like the Permian.

但我想問一下，您如何看待一些參數或市場條件，這些參數或條件可能會讓您對二疊紀等地的一些短期週期投資做出一些調整。

Yes. I think you've read the situation right, Devin. We're prepared. You get into an environment like this and you pull out the playbook. And we've looked at different market scenarios in both the depth and duration of a potential commodity cycle. And we've looked at our business and how we're postured today from a production standpoint, a cash generation standpoint, a debt standpoint and all the different levers that we have to pull and have identified the things we could do based on time posts and a view on the market.

是的。我覺得你對情況的了解是對的，德文。我們已經準備好了。當你進入這樣的環境時，你就會拿出劇本。我們研究了潛在商品週期的深度和持續時間的不同市場情景。我們從生產角度、現金產生角度、債務角度以及我們必須採取的所有不同措施審視了我們的業務以及我們目前的狀況，並根據時間職位和市場觀點確定了我們可以做的事情。

It's very early to, I think, have a high degree of confidence in terms of how this all plays out. The trade and tariff situation has been dynamic, and we need to see how that manifests itself over time. And of course, the OPEC change is one that is relatively recent as well, and we have to see how that plays out. And so we're very well prepared, and we've been through these kinds of things before.

我認為，現在就對這一切將如何發展抱持高度信心還為時過早。貿易和關稅情況一直在變化，我們需要觀察其隨著時間的推移如何表現。當然，OPEC的變化也是相對較新的，我們必須看看其結果如何。因此，我們準備得非常充分，而且我們以前也經歷過類似的事情。

I would say, I've been in one of the senior positions in '08 when we had the financial crisis in '14 when we saw prices dropped in '20 when we had COVID and again now, I don't think we've ever been in a better position to navigate it and have had more levers available at our disposal and more strength to come through a cycle than we have today.

我想說，2008 年金融危機時我擔任過高階職位，2014 年價格下跌時我們又遭遇了新冠疫情，現在，我認為我們從來沒有像現在這樣更好地應對危機，我們擁有更多可用的槓桿，也擁有比現在更強大的力量來度過一個週期。

Devin, I would just add that our balance sheet is in a really strong position at 14% and net debt. Our credit rating is AA. So as part of being prepared, it's ensuring that our balance sheet is strong. And so that's good. I'd also mention that the cost reduction program and the capital reduction that is underway, actions that we took last year put us in a strong position as well. And cost and capital discipline always matter in our business. And so we are focused on delivering on the plants that are behind those reductions and they're picking up piece, and we're doing well there. So I mean, it's preparation. We have leading indicators that we're monitoring, signpost and we don't need to do anything additional today, but we'll be ready with those signpost act if needed.

德文，我只想補充一點，我們的資產負債表處於非常強勁的狀態，淨債務為 14%。我們的信用評級是AA。因此，作為準備工作的一部分，我們要確保我們的資產負債表強勁。這很好。我還要提到，正在進行的成本削減計劃和資本削減，以及我們去年採取的行動也使我們處於有利地位。成本和資本紀律在我們的業務中始終至關重要。因此，我們專注於實現減排目標的工廠，它們正在恢復生產，我們在這方面做得很好。所以我的意思是，這是準備。我們有正在監測的領先指標和路標，今天我們不需要做任何額外的事情，但如果需要，我們會準備好這些路標行動。

John Royall, J.P. Morgan.

約翰·羅亞爾，J.P. 摩根。

So I was hoping for a little more color on expansion at Pasadena and how that's running and the benefits you're seeing overall to your Gulf Coast system? I know it was partly about synergies with Pascagoula. So maybe just a little more color on that and how the project is contributing several months into the start-up.

因此，我希望能夠更詳細地介紹帕薩迪納的擴建情況、其運作情況以及您看到的墨西哥灣沿岸系統的整體效益？我知道這在某種程度上與帕斯卡古拉的協同作用有關。因此，也許可以對此進行更詳細的說明，以及該專案在啟動幾個月後如何做出貢獻。

Yes. Thanks, John. The project is complete and online. We had FEED the crude unit, the first week of December. And we've been ramping up to full capacity here this quarter. We had stable operations in the first quarter at about 110,000 barrels a day of crude feed, and we're really learning how to optimize that plant now at these higher FEED rates. It will allow us to run more of our own equity from the Permian.

是的。謝謝，約翰。項目已完成並上線。我們在十二月的第一周對原油裝置進行了 FEED 處理。本季度，我們已開始全面提升產能。第一季度，我們的營運穩定，原油原料日產量約為 11 萬桶，現在我們正在學習如何在更高的原料產量下優化該工廠。這將使我們能夠從二疊紀盆地中獲得更多自己的股權。

And as we look at export markets that can be attractive to capture full value chain margins here in the US. It will take it up by about 50% before we could run about 85,000 barrels a day. This will take us up by 40,000 to 125,000 barrels a day. And so we've got the ability to support supply more products to our customers in the Gulf Coast. We've got a big market position in Texas, which historically has been served through product exchanges or purchases.

當我們觀察那些能夠吸引人們在美國獲取整個價值鏈利潤的出口市場。在我們能夠每天生產約 85,000 桶石油之前，它將佔用約 50% 的產能。這將使我們的日產量增加 40,000 桶至 125,000 桶。因此，我們有能力為墨西哥灣沿岸的客戶提供更多產品。我們在德州擁有很大的市場地位，歷史上我們一直透過產品交換或購買來滿足市場需求。

We can integrate fully into that now with our own production. There are very significant synergies we can realize with Pascagoula on immediate streams that can be moved from one facility to the other for upgrading the high-value products. It also helps during turnarounds to be able to store inventories, to move intermediates back and forth or finished products back and forth. And we've got US flagged tonnage that allows us to move those streams between the two facilities. And so a good project to improve flexibility and margin capture here on the Gulf Coast.

現在我們可以透過自己的生產完全融入其中。我們與帕斯卡古拉能夠實現非常顯著的協同效應，可以將直接流從一個設施轉移到另一個設施，以升級高價值產品。它還有助於在周轉期間儲存庫存，來回移動中間體或來回移動成品。我們擁有懸掛美國國旗的噸位，這使得我們可以在兩個設施之間運輸這些貨物。因此，這是一個提高墨西哥灣沿岸靈活性和利潤率的好項目。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼（Jason Gabelman），TD Cowen。

Yes. I wanted to go back to the buyback guidance, if I could. -- you've cut to the low end of the range, but it is still a pretty wide range. And I think we see your peers either guiding to a percentage of cash flow or a fixed amount that gives more visibility to where the buyback will be quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year.

是的。如果可以的話，我想回到回購指南。 ——您已經切到了範圍的低端，但範圍仍然很廣。我認為，我們看到您的同行要么引導一定比例的現金流，要么引導一個固定金額，這樣可以更清楚地了解每個季度和每年的回購情況。

So I was wondering if you could provide any additional color on how to think of the pace of buybacks through the balance of the year, if it's going to oscillate between the low end to the high end of the range or where it will oscillate in between? And then the other point on that is if you could just talk about where the buybacks are going to be following the Hess acquisition, you had a prior guidance of $5 billion. I'm wondering -- per quarter, sorry, I'm wondering if you have any update on that figure?

所以我想知道您是否可以提供更多關於如何考慮全年回購速度的信息，它是否會在範圍的低端和高端之間波動，或者它會在兩者之間波動嗎？關於這一點的另一點是，如果您可以談談收購 Hess 之後的回購金額，您之前的預期是 50 億美元。我想知道——每個季度，抱歉，我想知道您是否有關於該數字的任何更新？

Yes, Jason. First of all, it’s not a formula that we're going to announce a percentage of this or that because that really, in some ways, defeats the purpose of what we've tried to do, which is to be steady through cycles and not expose investors the uncertainty that volatile markets can introduce into this. And so you've seen our range has been consistent -- we introduced as I said, more than two years ago as we've issued quarterly guidance and executed. That's also been fairly consistent with the guidance and with the then current market conditions, and as we have seen market conditions change, and we've modified our guidance, I would expect to remain consistent if we're in a market like the one that we're in right now.

是的，傑森。首先，我們不會宣布某個百分比或某個百分比，因為這在某種程度上違背了我們試圖做的事情的目的，即在周期中保持穩定，不讓投資者面臨市場波動可能帶來的不確定性。因此，您會看到我們的範圍一直是一致的 - 正如我所說，我們在兩年多前就推出了季度指導並執行了。這也與指導意見和當時的市場狀況相當一致，而且隨著我們看到市場狀況的變化，我們也修改了指導意見，如果我們處於像現在這樣的市場，我希望保持一致。

And so we don't intend to yo-yo this around if that was kind of the question. And I think our track record, if you lay it out and look at it versus others, it speaks for itself that we have been able to stay steadfast and consistent, as I mentioned earlier, 18 out of 22 years, including during downturns. And the absolute of the range that we've issued now, $10 billion to $20 billion are above anything we ever did prior to COVID.

所以，如果這是問題的話，我們並不打算對此進行反覆討論。我認為，如果你把我們的業績記錄與其他人進行比較，你會發現我們能夠保持堅定和始終如一，正如我之前提到的，在 22 年中的 18 年裡，包括在經濟低迷時期。我們目前發行的債券總額為 100 億至 200 億美元，高於新冠疫情之前的任何發行額。

Even in the kind of late 2000s, before the financial crisis, when we were seeing $140, $150 oil markets, we were repurchasing, at max, one year, $8 billion. And we've now had three years, I think the trailing three years, the number is $50 billion in aggregate, and the $10 billion to $20 billion going forward is a very strong and robust range that you can expect us to stay within.

即使在 21 世紀初，金融危機爆發之前，當石油市場價格達到 140 美元或 150 美元時，我們一年最多回購了 80 億美元。現在我們已經有三年了，我認為過去三年，這個數字總計為 500 億美元，而未來的 100 億到 200 億美元是一個非常強勁和穩健的範圍，你可以預期我們會保持在這個範圍內。

Yes. And then maybe just specific to the guide rate that we issued for the quarter, 2.5 as well within the $10 billion to $20 billion annual, putting it into the context of what we've done in the last couple of years. I mean prices have been seen to $20 higher when we've delivered a $15 billion program, and we'll deliver something between 11 and 13 if we just project it. So it's still a very strong program. We're still buying a significant mind of our shares. And that's on top of a dividend that's growing faster than our peers in the S&P 500.

是的。然後可能只是具體到我們本季發布的指導利率，也就是每年 100 億美元到 200 億美元之間的 2.5%，並將其放在我們過去幾年所做的事情的背景下。我的意思是，當我們實施一項 150 億美元的計劃時，價格會高出 20 美元，如果我們進行預測的話，我們將實現 11 到 13 美元之間的價格。所以它仍然是一個非常強大的程式。我們仍在大量購買股票。除此之外，我們的股利成長速度也高於標準普爾 500 指數中的同業。

Bob Brackett, Bernstein Research.

鮑伯‧布拉克特（Bob Brackett），伯恩斯坦研究公司。

Question around the tariff situation and how it might impact either CapEx or projects. What are some of the things you can do to adjust to tariffs in terms of controlling costs.

有關關稅情況以及它如何影響資本支出或項目的問題。從控製成本的角度來說，您可以採取哪些措施來調整關稅？

Yes, Bob, we're watching this very closely and preparing and actually in the process of taking some actions to mitigate the impacts. Our direct exposure is relatively limited. Energy has been largely exempted from tariffs. And if you're looking at our cost structure of goods that we buy of our third-party spend, roughly 80% of it is on services, not on goods. Of the 20% that is spent on goods, a lot of that tends to be sourced locally or regionally.

是的，鮑勃，我們正在密切關注此事，並做好準備，實際上正在採取一些行動來減輕影響。我們的直接接觸相對有限。能源基本上已免關稅。如果你看我們購買的第三方商品的成本結構，你會發現其中大約 80% 用於服務，而不是商品。在商品支出的 20% 中，許多往往是在當地或區域採購的。

And our US, for example, where our largest portion of our capital spend is we've got strong domestic sourcing on most of the goods that we use in our unconventional programs in the DJ and the Permian for instance. Our current estimate is we may see a 1% impact on the cost of a shale well. So it's a dynamic environment, and we'll watch how these things evolve. But we've got strong engagement with our suppliers. We've got sourcing from multiple locations. -- and we've been anticipating this and preparing for it. So the impact is not zero, but I think the impact is manageable and it's -- you've seen announcements in other industries where they're more directly exposed than we are.

以美國為例，我們的資本支出中最大的一部分用於 DJ 和 Permian 等非常規項目，而我們所使用的大部分商品都有強大的國內採購能力。我們目前的估計是，頁岩井成本可能會受到 1% 的影響。所以這是一個動態的環境，我們將觀察這些事情如何發展。但我們與供應商保持著密切的合作關係。我們從多個地方獲取貨源。 ——我們一直在期待這一點並為此做準備。因此影響不是零，但我認為影響是可控的，而且——你已經看到其他行業發布的公告，它們比我們受到更直接的影響。

Thank you, Bob. I would like to thank everyone for your time today. We appreciate your interest in Chevron and your participation on today's call. Please stay safe and healthy. Katie, back to you.

謝謝你，鮑伯。我要感謝大家今天抽出時間。感謝您對雪佛龍的關注以及您參加今天的電話會議。請務必保持安全和健康。凱蒂，回到你身邊。

Thank you. This concludes Chevron's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。雪佛龍 2025 年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。