雪佛龍 (CVX) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to Chevron's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早上好。我叫凱蒂，今天我將成為您的會議主持人。歡迎來到雪佛龍 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，此電話會議正在錄音中。

I will now turn the conference call over to General Manager of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Roderick Green. Please go ahead.

我現在將電話會議轉交給雪佛龍公司投資者關係總經理 Roderick Green 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Katie. Welcome to Chevron's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. I'm Roderick Green, GM of Investor Relations. Our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth; and CFO, Pierre Breber, are on the call with me. We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron's website.

謝謝你，凱蒂。歡迎來到雪佛龍 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議和網絡直播。我是投資者關係總經理 Roderick Green。我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Wirth；首席財務官 Pierre Breber 正在與我通話。我們將參考雪佛龍網站上提供的幻燈片和準備好的評論。

Before we begin, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary statement on Slide 2.

在我們開始之前，請注意本演示文稿包含估計、預測和其他前瞻性陳述。請查看幻燈片 2 上的警告聲明。

Now I'll turn it over to Mike.

現在我將把它交給邁克。

All right. Thanks, Roderick. Before we turn to first quarter results, I'd like to recognize the people of Ukraine. Our hearts go out to those affected by this tragedy, and we hope for a prompt and enduring diplomatic resolution.

好的。謝謝，羅德里克。在我們轉向第一季度業績之前，我想認識一下烏克蘭人民。我們向受這場悲劇影響的人們表示同情，我們希望能夠迅速和持久地解決外交問題。

The last 2 years have been volatile and unpredictable, driven by the global pandemic and geopolitical conflict, creating strains on economies and markets around the world. Through it all, our objectives have been clear and consistent. And in the first quarter, we continued to make progress, delivering book returns in the mid-teens, investing to grow both our traditional and new energy businesses and returning even more cash to shareholders while maintaining an industry-leading balance sheet.

在全球大流行和地緣政治衝突的推動下，過去兩年動盪且不可預測，給全球經濟和市場造成壓力。通過這一切，我們的目標是明確和一致的。在第一季度，我們繼續取得進展，實現了十幾歲的賬面回報，投資發展我們的傳統和新能源業務，向股東返還更多現金，同時保持行業領先的資產負債表。

Recent events remind us of the importance of energy. Looking forward, I know that Chevron is doing its part, raising this year's Permian production outlook and advancing 2 important renewable fuel transactions: our Bunge JV, which is expected to close shortly; and the Renewable Energy Group acquisition, which is expected to close around midyear.

最近發生的事件提醒我們能源的重要性。展望未來，我知道雪佛龍正在盡其所能，提高今年二疊紀的產量前景並推進兩項重要的可再生燃料交易：我們的邦吉合資公司，預計將很快關閉；以及預計將在年中左右完成的可再生能源集團收購。

While the future is uncertain, our actions are not. We're on a path to delivering higher returns and lower carbon and rewarding our stakeholders all along the way.

雖然未來是不確定的，但我們的行動卻不是。我們正在實現更高回報和更低碳排放，並一路回報我們的利益相關者。

With that, I'll turn it over to Pierre to discuss our financials.

有了這個，我會把它交給皮埃爾討論我們的財務狀況。

Thanks, Mike. We reported first quarter earnings of $6.3 billion or $3.22 per share. Adjusted earnings were $6.5 billion or $3.36 per share. Included in the current quarter were pension settlement costs totaling $66 million and negative foreign currency effects exceeding $200 million. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Adjusted ROCE was over 15% and our net debt ratio is below 11%.

謝謝，邁克。我們報告第一季度收益為 63 億美元或每股 3.22 美元。調整後的收益為 65 億美元或每股 3.36 美元。本季度包括總計 6600 萬美元的養老金結算成本和超過 2 億美元的負面外匯影響。非公認會計原則措施的調節可在本演示文稿的附錄中找到。調整後的 ROCE 超過 15%，我們的淨負債率低於 11%。

A third consecutive quarter with free cash flow over $6 billion, enabled us to return $4 billion to shareholders and further pay down debt. In addition, during the quarter, we received over $4 billion in cash, when about 3,000 current and former employees exercise stock options. This quarter's proceeds from option exercises were over 4x the historical annual average of around $1 billion per year. About 2/3 of the vest adoptions at year-end 2021 were exercised during the first quarter, lowering the potential future rate of dilution from the outstanding balance. Over time, we expect our share buybacks to more than offset the first quarter dilutive effect.

連續第三個季度擁有超過 60 億美元的自由現金流，使我們能夠向股東返還 40 億美元並進一步償還債務。此外，在本季度，當大約 3,000 名現任和前任員工行使股票期權時，我們收到了超過 40 億美元的現金。本季度期權行使的收益是歷史年平均每年約 10 億美元的 4 倍以上。到 2021 年底，大約 2/3 的背心採用在第一季度行使，降低了未償餘額的潛在未來稀釋率。隨著時間的推移，我們預計我們的股票回購將抵消第一季度的稀釋效應。

Adjusted first quarter earnings were up $4.8 billion versus last quarter -- versus last year. Adjusted upstream earnings increased mainly on higher realizations while adjusted downstream earnings increased primarily on higher margins, partially offset by negative timing effects. Compared with last quarter, adjusted earnings were up more than $1.6 billion. Adjusted upstream earnings increased primarily on higher realizations and the absence of certain fourth quarter DD&A charges. Liftings were lower in part due to lower production in the Gulf of Mexico.

調整後的第一季度收益與上一季度相比增加了 48 億美元——與去年相比。調整後的上游收益主要由於較高的實現而增加，而調整後的下游收益主要由於較高的利潤率而增加，部分被負面的時間效應所抵消。與上一季度相比，調整後的收益增加了超過 16 億美元。調整後的上游收益增加主要是由於較高的實現以及沒有某些第四季度的 DD&A 費用。提貨量減少的部分原因是墨西哥灣的產量下降。

Adjusted downstream earnings decreased primarily on timing effects. The All Other segment was down primarily on unfavorable tax items and higher corporate charges. The All Other segment results can vary between quarters, and our full year guidance is unchanged.

調整後的下游收益下降主要是由於時間效應。所有其他部門的下降主要是由於不利的稅收項目和更高的公司費用。所有其他部門的結果可能因季度而異，我們的全年指導不變。

First quarter oil equivalent production decreased 2% year-on-year due to the expiration of Rokan in Indonesia, lower production in Thailand as we approach the end of the concession and lower entitlements due to higher prices. Permian growth in the absence of Winter Storm Uri, impacts partially offset and drove U.S. oil and gas production up over 10%.

第一季度石油當量產量同比下降 2%，原因是印度尼西亞的 Rokan 到期，泰國的產量隨著我們接近特許權的結束而下降，以及價格上漲導致的權利減少。在沒有冬季風暴 Uri 的情況下，二疊紀的增長部分抵消了影響，並推動美國石油和天然氣產量增長了 10% 以上。

Now looking ahead. In the second quarter, we expect lower production due to planned turnarounds at Wheatstone and Angola LNG, impacts from CPC pipeline and the expiration of the Area 1 concession in Thailand. At CPC, 2 of the 3 single port moorings are now back in service and TCO has returned to full operations. Downtime associated with the April repairs is estimated to be less than 15% of our second quarter turnaround and downtime guidance.

現在展望未來。由於惠斯通和安哥拉液化天然氣的計劃周轉、CPC 管道的影響以及泰國 1 區特許權的到期，我們預計第二季度產量會下降。在 CPC，3 個單端口繫泊中的 2 個現已重新投入使用，TCO 已恢復全面運營。與 4 月維修相關的停機時間估計不到我們第二季度周轉時間和停機時間指導的 15%。

We anticipate a return of capital between $250 million and $350 million from Angola LNG in the second quarter. This cash is reported through cash from investing and not cash from operations. In the first quarter, Angola LNG returned over $500 million of capital. The differences between affiliate earnings and dividends are not ratable and TCO has not yet declared a dividend in 2022. With higher commodity prices, affiliate dividends are expected to be $1 billion higher than our previous guidance.

我們預計第二季度安哥拉液化天然氣公司將獲得 2.5 億至 3.5 億美元的資本回報。這些現金是通過投資現金而不是運營現金報告的。第一季度，安哥拉液化天然氣公司返還了超過 5 億美元的資本。附屬公司收益和股息之間的差異不可估價，TCO 尚未宣布 2022 年的股息。隨著商品價格上漲，附屬公司股息預計將比我們之前的指導高出 10 億美元。

We've utilized our NOLs and other U.S. tax attributes and expect to make estimated U.S. federal and state income tax payments in the second quarter. These payments will flow through working capital accounts, just like our first quarter IRS refunded. In the second quarter, we expect to invest $600 million as we close the Bunge joint venture and to repurchase shares at the top of our guidance range.

我們已經利用了我們的 NOL 和其他美國稅收屬性，並預計將在第二季度支付估計的美國聯邦和州所得稅。這些款項將通過營運資金賬戶流動，就像我們第一季度的 IRS 退款一樣。在第二季度，我們預計將在關閉邦吉合資企業時投資 6 億美元，並在我們指導範圍的頂部回購股票。

With that, I'll turn it back to Roderick.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給羅德里克。

That concludes our prepared remarks. We're now ready to take your questions. (Operator Instructions) Katie, please open the lines.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在準備回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）凱蒂，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Phil Gresh with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Gresh。

Mike, I want to start with one for you on Tengiz. There have been a number of events here in the quarter from the social unrest earlier in the quarter to the CPC pipeline uncertainty and the moorings issues. So I recognize production seems to be back up and running to normal now. But I'm curious how you think about this in terms of the broader implications of what has been happening on the ground there? And it's a very important asset for Chevron. So what are your latest thoughts?

邁克，我想從 Tengiz 上的一個開始。從本季度早些時候的社會動盪到 CPC 管道的不確定性和繫泊問題，本季度這裡發生了許多事件。所以我認識到現在生產似乎已恢復正常運行。但我很好奇你如何看待當地發生的事情的更廣泛影響？這對雪佛龍來說是一項非常重要的資產。那麼你最近的想法是什麼？

Well, Phil, it's an important asset, not just to our company but to the Republic of Kazakhstan and, frankly, to world energy markets in Europe, in particular. It's a significant supplier at a time when there are concerns about supply security that you're very familiar with. So we're focused on safe and reliable operations, as you would expect, protecting people in the environment and our assets, executing the major project, that's underway. And working with all the stakeholders that are involved in this. So that includes partners, it includes, obviously, the government of Kazakhstan and our customers.

嗯，菲爾，這是一項重要的資產，不僅對我們公司，而且對哈薩克斯坦共和國，坦率地說，對歐洲的世界能源市場尤其如此。在您非常熟悉供應安全問題的時候，它是一個重要的供應商。因此，正如您所期望的那樣，我們專注於安全可靠的運營，保護環境中的人們和我們的資產，執行正在進行的重大項目。並與參與其中的所有利益相關者合作。這包括合作夥伴，顯然包括哈薩克斯坦政府和我們的客戶。

So the risks that I think you're referring to are risks that are present in Kazakhstan and in varying degrees, in other parts of the world as well. And that's part of what we do is manage those risks on the ground each and every day. There are times when the environment feels a bit more benign, but you can't take your eyes off those risks because they can materialize at any point.

因此，我認為您所指的風險是哈薩克斯坦存在的風險，並且不同程度地存在於世界其他地區。這就是我們每天在實地管理這些風險的一部分。有時環境感覺更溫和一些，但你不能把注意力從這些風險上移開，因為它們隨時可能成為現實。

So to this point in time, we've been able to make good progress on the project. Some impact really from the weather-related downtime at the loading buoys at lower (inaudible). But 2 of those are back in service and the third one is slated for repair, which would give us plenty of redundant capacity there. So we continue to stay very focused on every aspect of managing that our people on the ground are empowered to do what it takes and to be very responsive in real time. And I'm incredibly proud of the work that they've done in a very challenging environment.

所以到目前為止，我們已經能夠在項目上取得良好的進展。一些影響確實來自較低的裝載浮標（聽不見）與天氣相關的停機時間。但其中 2 台已重新投入使用，第 3 台將進行維修，這將為我們提供充足的冗餘容量。因此，我們將繼續非常專注於管理的各個方面，以使我們的實地人員有權做任何需要做的事情並實時響應。我為他們在極具挑戰性的環境中所做的工作感到無比自豪。

Understood. I appreciate your thoughts. My second question would be for Pierre on cash flows or cash balances. The quarter did come in a bit lower than expected on cash flows, and I think you highlighted some timing factors. But you did get a bunch of cash from the stock vesting. So cash balances are up quite significantly. So I was wondering, I don't know if there's anything else to highlight on the moving pieces of the cash flow. But even at strip prices with your buybacks, it seems like cash balances will keep going up. So just what are your latest thoughts on managing the cash from here?

明白了。我很欣賞你的想法。我的第二個問題是關於現金流或現金餘額的問題。本季度的現金流量確實略低於預期，我認為您強調了一些時間因素。但你確實從股票歸屬中獲得了一大筆現金。因此，現金餘額大幅增加。所以我想知道，我不知道在現金流的流動部分上是否還有其他值得強調的地方。但即使以您回購的剝離價格計算，現金餘額似乎也會繼續增加。那麼，您對從這裡管理現金有什麼最新想法？

Thanks, Phil. First, let me just talk about cash in the quarter. Cash in the quarter was very strong. As I pointed out, our dividends from affiliates are not ratable. And particularly from TCO, which historically has paid dividends in the fourth quarter, we increased our guidance on expected dividends, but they were light in the first quarter. So yes, that's timing. I also pointed out that Angola LNG returned $500 million of capital. That's essentially operating cash. That's a function of operating an LNG facility and selling it into the European gas markets at TTF prices.

謝謝，菲爾。首先，讓我談談本季度的現金。本季度的現金非常強勁。正如我所指出的，我們從附屬公司獲得的股息是不可估價的。尤其是從歷史上在第四季度派發股息的 TCO，我們提高了對預期股息的指導，但在第一季度它們很清淡。所以是的，那是時機。我還指出，安哥拉液化天然氣公司返還了 5 億美元的資金。這本質上是營運現金。這是運營液化天然氣設施並以 TTF 價格將其出售到歐洲天然氣市場的功能。

However, adjusted to the accounting rules, it's flowing through cash from investing and not cash from ops. But for all intents and purposes, it is operating cash flow. And at some point in time in the future, it might revert back to that depending on the retained earnings in that affiliate. Another item I did not mention is that it's a typical item that happens in the first quarter. We pay out our long-term incentive compensation, which a portion of that is in the form of restricted stock and performance shares.

然而，根據會計規則調整後，它通過投資現金流動，而不是運營現金。但出於所有意圖和目的，它是運營現金流。並且在未來的某個時間點，它可能會恢復到該狀態，具體取決於該附屬公司的留存收益。我沒有提到的另一個項目是它是第一季度發生的典型項目。我們支付我們的長期激勵薪酬，其中一部分是以限制性股票和業績股的形式。

That is, again, happens annually, but with a higher stock price, that was a higher payment than in previous years. That does not flow through working capital. That comes out of a long-term liability account. And then as I mentioned, we expect to make estimated tax payments next quarter, but that will flow through working capital in many of analysts would gather our cash flow ex working capital. But our IRS refund also went through working capital that we had guided to in the first quarter.

也就是說，每年都會發生這種情況，但由於股價較高，因此支付的費用比往年要高。這不會通過營運資金流動。這來自長期負債賬戶。然後正如我所提到的，我們預計下個季度將支付估計的稅款，但這將通過許多分析師的營運資金流動，將收集我們的現金流，除去營運資金。但我們的國稅局退款也通過了我們在第一季度引導的營運資金。

In terms of our cash balances, we're running a little bit high on our cash balance. That's why we refer to net debt, but we have a couple of cash items coming up. We expect to close REG around midyear. That's $3 billion. And we have an offering up right now to do a make whole call on about $3 billion of bonds. These are bonds that are economic to call back. And then on the buybacks, I mean, we just increased our buyback guidance at our Investor Day back in March to $5 billion to $10 billion. We were at $5 billion rate here in the first quarter. We're doubling it now to the top of the range of $10 billion, and we'll just see where the environment goes from here.

就我們的現金餘額而言，我們的現金餘額有點高。這就是為什麼我們提到淨債務，但我們有幾個現金項目即將出現。我們預計將在年中左右關閉 REG。那是30億美元。我們現在有一個發行，可以對大約 30 億美元的債券進行全面看漲。這些債券是可以收回的經濟債券。然後在回購方面，我的意思是，我們剛剛在 3 月份的投資者日將我們的回購指導提高到 50 億至 100 億美元。我們在第一季度的利率為 50 億美元。我們現在將其翻倍，達到 100 億美元的最高水平，我們將看看環境從這裡走向何方。

We are not setting -- we are setting the buyback at a rate that we can maintain across the commodity cycle. We could have a higher buyback rate this quarter or next quarter, but the goal is not to maximize the buyback rate in any individual quarter. It's to set it at a level that we can maintain when the cycle turns. And therefore, we can rebalance our net debt ratio closer to our mid-cycle guidance.

我們沒有設定——我們將回購設定在我們可以在整個商品週期中維持的速度。我們本季度或下個季度可能會有更高的回購率，但目標不是在任何一個季度最大化回購率。是將其設置在循環轉動時我們可以維持的水平。因此，我們可以重新平衡我們的淨債務比率，使其更接近我們的中期指導。

We'll take our next question from Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

我們將向摩根士丹利的德文麥克德莫特提出下一個問題。

So the first one I wanted to ask is just on the Permian results and guidance increase. I was wondering if you could talk through in a bit more detail some of the drivers there. Are you adding activity? Is it better performance on the activity you already had budgeted for? Is it nonoperated? Just walk through some of the drivers there and how you're thinking about that.

所以我想問的第一個問題只是關於二疊紀結果和指導增加。我想知道你是否可以更詳細地談談那裡的一些驅動程序。您要添加活動嗎？在您已經預算的活動上是否有更好的表現？是非營業嗎？只需了解那裡的一些驅動程序以及您的想法即可。

Yes, Devin, we did have a strong first quarter and a couple of big things to bear in mind there. As we slowed things down in 2020, when demand contracted due to the pandemic, what happened is we ended up with an inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells that grew beyond what would be kind of a normal run rate for our rig fleet. And so we've been working through that and we're back down now to what you could think of as a more normal factory model. We always want to have docks out in front of the completion crews but that had grown to a larger than normal rate.

是的，德文，我們確實有一個強勁的第一季度和一些重要的事情要記住。隨著我們在 2020 年放慢速度，當需求因大流行而收縮時，發生的事情是，我們最終得到了已鑽但未完成的油井庫存，這些油井的增長超出了我們鑽井船隊的正常運行速度。所以我們一直在努力解決這個問題，現在我們回到了你可以認為的更正常的工廠模式。我們一直希望在完成工作人員面前有碼頭，但這已經增長到比正常速度更大的速度。

So as we've caught that up, that's pretty efficient. It's the first place you turn as you see the cycle turn is completing those wells to get that production online, and we'll be moving into more of a factory model. So it will level out a little bit versus what might feel like a little bit of a surge. We also get some nonratable joint venture bookings that show up. And so both of those contributed to a very strong first quarter.

因此，當我們趕上這一點時，這非常有效。當您看到循環轉向完成這些油井以使生產在線時，這是您轉向的第一個地方，我們將進入更多的工廠模式。因此，與可能感覺有點激增的情況相比，它會稍微平穩一點。我們還收到了一些不可估價的合資企業預訂。因此，這兩者都為第一季度的強勁表現做出了貢獻。

And of course, by the time you look at how that would roll through in the continued activity for the rest of this year, it's pretty clear that we'll end up higher than the initial guidance that we had put out. So -- but we haven't stepped up our program. We haven't stepped up a number of rigs. We haven't stepped up spending. It's all really a function of getting the machine running again. And then underneath that, there's ongoing efficiency improvements that we continue to see.

當然，當你看到這將如何在今年剩餘時間的持續活動中實現時，很明顯我們最終將高於我們發布的初始指導。所以——但我們還沒有加強我們的計劃。我們還沒有增加一些鑽機。我們沒有增加支出。這實際上是讓機器再次運行的功能。然後在此之下，我們繼續看到持續的效率改進。

Got it. That's very helpful. And my second question is on your global gas and LNG portfolio. And I was wondering if you could just give us an update on how you're looking at some of the medium and longer-term opportunities there given what's going on in markets? And specifically, I'm thinking about Eastern Med and that gas position. And then also whether or not integration into some type of LNG facility in the U.S. might make sense for some of your production growth there as well?

知道了。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於您的全球天然氣和液化天然氣投資組合。我想知道您是否可以向我們提供最新信息，說明您如何看待市場上正在發生的一些中長期機會？具體來說，我正在考慮Eastern Med 和那個氣體位置。然後是否整合到美國的某種類型的液化天然氣設施可能對您那裡的一些生產增長也有意義？

Sure. So LNG is on everybody's mind these days. It's important to meeting Europe's needs. It's important to delivering a lower carbon energy system globally, and we see this strong market here in the near term. Eastern Med is a wonderful asset. I was just over there 2 weeks ago. I visited the Leviathan platform, spent a lot of time with our people in the business there. And they've recently completed a project to increase infrastructure access to regional markets and we're actually flowing more gas into Egypt as a result of that.

當然。所以現在每個人都在考慮液化天然氣。滿足歐洲的需求很重要。在全球範圍內提供低碳能源系統非常重要，我們在短期內看到了這個強勁的市場。東方醫療是一項了不起的資產。兩週前我剛到那裡。我訪問了 Leviathan 平台，花了很多時間與我們的業務人員在那裡開展業務。他們最近完成了一個項目，以增加基礎設施進入區域市場的機會，因此我們實際上向埃及輸送了更多的天然氣。

We're looking at a number of other opportunities to further increased production because the resource there is quite prolific. And that includes further coal-to-gas switching in Israel for the regional supply into neighboring countries, for potential power generation for power distribution through the region, floating LNG, potentially using oilage in other LNG facilities in the region, a number of different commercial options that are being evaluated and worked.

我們正在尋找其他一些機會來進一步提高產量，因為那裡的資源非常豐富。這包括在以色列進一步進行煤改氣以向鄰國供應區域性供應，通過該地區進行潛在的電力分配，浮動液化天然氣，可能在該地區的其他液化天然氣設施中使用石油，許多不同的商業正在評估和工作的選項。

So more to come as those mature, but it's an area of high priority for us because the market demand for it. When you look at the U.S., clearly, we've got a lot of gas production here that largely prices at Henry Hub today. And there are these projects that are in the process for LNG export facilities. We've had discussions with a number of those developers, nothing to say more than we've had discussions at this point.

隨著這些技術的成熟，還會有更多，但這是我們高度優先考慮的領域，因為市場對此有需求。當你看美國時，很明顯，我們這裡有很多天然氣生產，而今天在亨利中心的價格主要是這樣的。還有這些項目正在為液化天然氣出口設施建設。我們已經與許多開發人員進行了討論，沒有什麼比我們在這一點上進行的討論更多的了。

But that's part of our LNG portfolio that we've been very focused on the Pacific Basin historically. And as the Atlantic Basin markets now look a little bit different as we flow gas from our West African assets into the Atlantic Basin, it may make sense for us to have some U.S. supply as well. So we'll advise you as we advance anything there.

但這是我們歷史上一直非常關注太平洋盆地的液化天然氣產品組合的一部分。隨著我們將天然氣從我們的西非資產輸送到大西洋盆地，大西洋盆地市場現在看起來有些不同，因此我們也有一些美國供應可能是有意義的。因此，當我們在那裡推進任何事情時，我們會為您提供建議。

We'll take our next question from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們將向高盛的尼爾梅塔提出我們的下一個問題。

Mike, I just love your perspective on the oil macro. You always have a good read on it. It strikes us that inventories for product and oil are very tight right now. You've got jet fuel recovering over the summer. We'll see what happens in China. Shale has an inelastic supply response. So how does this ultimately resolve itself in the near term? Do you ultimately need to solve or demand destruction through crack or flat price of oil? Or is there something that we're missing?

邁克，我只是喜歡你對石油宏觀的看法。你總是對它有很好的閱讀。令我們震驚的是，目前產品和石油的庫存非常緊張。你已經在夏天恢復了噴氣燃料。我們將看看中國會發生什麼。頁岩的供給反應缺乏彈性。那麼這最終如何在短期內自行解決呢？您最終是否需要通過油價崩盤或平價來解決或要求破壞？還是我們缺少什麼？

No, Neil. I mean you're putting your finger on all the levers. If you step back from it, supply always responds more slowly than demands does. And in normal times, which we have not been in for the last couple of years, both of them kind of gradually move in relative sympathy with one another. You've got storage out there that can buffer any near-term imbalances. I'm repeating what you all know. But in 2020, we saw a contraction unlike anything I've seen in my lifetime. And we had to really constrain activity. There was no sense producing more oil when the world needed a lot less.

不，尼爾。我的意思是你把你的手指放在所有的槓桿上。如果你退後一步，供應的反應總是比需求慢。在過去幾年裡我們都沒有進入過的正常時期，他們倆都逐漸變得相對同情。你有可以緩衝任何近期不平衡的存儲空間。我在重複你們都知道的事情。但在 2020 年，我們看到了我一生中從未見過的收縮。我們必須真正限制活動。當世界需要更少的石油時，生產更多的石油是沒有意義的。

And it wasn't clear at the time how long that might last and how deep it would be. And so the entire industry, every segment of the industry responded to that. And then as we've come out of the pandemic, demand growth has surged. And as you say, we haven't seen it all come back yet. Air travel, while it's -- domestic air travel in the U.S. is pretty strong, international air travel still has a ways to go to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

當時還不清楚這可能持續多長時間以及深度。所以整個行業，行業的每個部分都對此做出了回應。然後，隨著我們擺脫大流行，需求增長激增。正如你所說，我們還沒有看到這一切都回來了。航空旅行雖然美國國內航空旅行相當強勁，但國際航空旅行仍有一段路要走才能恢復到大流行前的水平。

And then China and other parts of the world are still in various stages of lockdown at various points in time. And so we haven't seen a full recovery of demand there. So even with that, demand has now responded more quickly than supply can match it. And then you overlay a host of other issues, right? The independent E&Ps feeling more of an obligation to return cash to their shareholders. Some of the big integrated companies have reprioritized new energy versus traditional energy and have indicated they intend to shrink rather than grow their oil and gas production.

然後中國和世界其他地區在不同的時間點仍處於不同的封鎖階段。因此，我們還沒有看到那裡的需求完全恢復。因此，即便如此，需求現在的反應速度也超過了供應所能匹敵的速度。然後你覆蓋了許多其他問題，對吧？獨立的勘探與生產公司感到更有義務向股東返還現金。一些大型綜合公司已將新能源與傳統能源的重心放在了優先位置，並表示他們打算縮減而不是增加石油和天然氣產量。

And then the NOCs going around the world, everybody has got a little bit of a different situation. So it's a market that is not stable. It's not an equilibrium. Right now, as you say, inventories are quite low. Demand is still strong, and economies to this point seem to be handling it. At some point, particularly if prices were to move higher, I do think it starts to be a bigger drag on the economy than what we've seen to this point.

然後是世界各地的國家奧委會，每個人都有一點不同的情況。所以這是一個不穩定的市場。這不是一種平衡。正如你所說，現在庫存非常低。需求仍然強勁，到目前為止，經濟體似乎正在處理它。在某些時候，特別是如果價格上漲，我確實認為它開始對經濟造成比我們目前所看到的更大的拖累。

But there's a lot of attention in this market and the supply response is coming. We're up 10% in the U.S. year-on-year. We're working on the big project in Kazakhstan, which will start up over the next couple of years. And others around the world have got things that they're doing as well. But it just comes in at a different pace than the demand has moved. And I think we're in a market that's tight right now, that has a lot of uncertainty and I think that is not likely to resolve itself in the near term, the uncertainty. Things like the SPR release in the near term can do a certain amount to call those markets. But over time, it's a cyclical business. There's a lot of resource out there that can be produced at prices lower than we see today.

但這個市場有很多關注，供應反應即將到來。我們在美國同比增長 10%。我們正在哈薩克斯坦開展一個大型項目，該項目將在未來幾年內啟動。世界各地的其他人也有他們正在做的事情。但它只是以與需求變化不同的速度出現。我認為我們現在處於一個緊張的市場，有很多不確定性，我認為這不太可能在短期內自行解決，不確定性。近期發布的 SPR 之類的事情可以在一定程度上呼喚這些市場。但隨著時間的推移，這是一個週期性的業務。有很多資源可以以低於我們今天看到的價格生產。

And one of the lessons in history is just as the bad times don't last forever, neither do the times when prices are strong, and so we can't start to believe they'll always be like this. But I think in the relative short term here, the tensions that you referred to are likely to remain.

歷史上的教訓之一就是糟糕的時期不會永遠持續下去，價格強勁的時期也不會永遠持續下去，所以我們不能開始相信它們會一直這樣。但我認為在相對短期內，你提到的緊張局勢可能會持續存在。

It's a great perspective, Mike. Another big picture question is, if you think about 20 years ago at the beginning of the last super cycle, you had very similar, very large multiple arbitrages between the super majors and even large independents and some of the majors. And one could look at your multiple on consensus and say you trade a premium relative to a lot of the global majors. Do you think there's value in mega M&A in the space? And do you see yourself as a logical consolidator, given that M&A is such a core competency and it worked out incredibly well for you 20 years ago with Texaco?

這是一個很好的視角，邁克。另一個宏觀問題是，如果你想想 20 年前上一個超級週期開始時，超級巨頭甚至大型獨立企業和一些專業之間存在非常相似、非常大的多重套利。並且可以查看您的共識倍數，並說您相對於許多全球主要交易者的交易溢價。您認為該領域的大型併購是否有價值？您是否認為自己是一個合乎邏輯的整合者，考慮到併購是一項核心競爭力，並且在 20 年前與德士古合作對您來說效果非常好？

Yes. We're always looking at these things, Neil. I think history would suggest that deals done in an upcycle or near the top of the cycle don't necessarily look as well in hindsight as deals that were done in a different part of the cycle. 20 years ago, when there was a number of transactions that you referred to, we were coming out of oil prices in the teens or the 20s. And so consolidation made sense. There were a lot of synergies to be harvested as you put some of these companies together. I think the entire industry is more efficient today than it was then certainly large companies, which you refer to kind of large-scale M&A.

是的。我們一直在關注這些事情，尼爾。我認為歷史表明，在上升週期或接近週期頂部完成的交易在事後看來不一定像在周期的不同部分完成的交易那樣好。 20 年前，當您提到的許多交易時，我們正處於 20 多歲或 20 多歲的油價中。所以整合是有道理的。當您將其中一些公司放在一起時，可以收穫很多協同效應。我認為今天整個行業比當時的大公司更有效率，你指的是大規模併購。

And so I think the synergy opportunities, while no doubt there would be some, they may not be of the same magnitude that they were 20 years ago. We've all used technology and other things to improve the efficiency of our operations. So I never say never, but I don't know that just because we're trading at a relatively strong multiple right now that, that should lead you to believe that it means we're more likely to do something that our track record of discipline would suggest.

所以我認為協同機會，雖然毫無疑問會有一些，但它們可能不像 20 年前那樣大。我們都使用技術和其他東西來提高我們的運營效率。所以我從不說永遠不會，但我不知道，僅僅因為我們現在的市盈率相對較高，這應該會讓你相信這意味著我們更有可能做一些我們的往績記錄紀律會建議。

We'll take our next question from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

我們將向巴克萊銀行的 Jeanine Wai 提出我們的下一個問題。

Our first question, maybe we just hit back on cash returns. The buyback for 2Q annualized again, is at the top of your range. And Pierre, I think you reiterated on Phil's question that buybacks are intended to be through the cycle. Can you just maybe provide a little bit of commentary on how you're viewing the buyback in relation to mid-cycle cash flow?

我們的第一個問題，也許我們只是回擊現金回報。第二季度的回購再次年化，處於您範圍的頂部。皮埃爾，我認為你重申了菲爾的問題，即回購旨在通過週期。您能否就您如何看待與週期中期現金流相關的回購提供一些評論？

Thanks, Jeanine. The buyback rate of $10 billion is a company record, and previous highest buyback rate was back in 2008. And as you say, we want to maintain it across the commodity cycle. So we're very in tune with what our mid-cycle cash flow capabilities are. We showed at our Investor Day low case of $50 Brent and so that we can maintain the buyback for multiple years, even though $50 is notionally right around the breakeven for covering both our dividend and our capital. And then, of course, we showed the high case of $75 where buybacks were, in fact, higher than the current $10 billion guidance. And we could buy back at that point in time, it was more than 25% of the company, it's a little bit less based on the current stock price. So that's exactly how we're thinking about it.

謝謝，珍妮。 100 億美元的回購率是公司的記錄，之前的最高回購率是在 2008 年。正如你所說，我們希望在整個商品週期中保持它。因此，我們非常了解我們的中期現金流能力。我們在投資者日展示了布倫特原油 50 美元的低點，這樣我們就可以維持多年的回購，儘管 50 美元理論上正好在我們的股息和資本的盈虧平衡點附近。然後，當然，我們展示了 75 美元的高位回購，實際上，高於當前 100 億美元的指導。我們可以在那個時間點回購，超過公司的 25%，根據當前的股價計算，這個比例要少一些。所以這正是我們正在考慮的方式。

To Neil's question and the macro, it was just 2 years ago today on this earnings call, that Chevron was the only company to show a 2-year stress test at $30 Brent. And that was a real stress test. And we showed that we could maintain the dividend, invest in the business for long-term value. We certainly reduced some short-cycle capital. And yes, we would take on some debt, but we'd have a debt ratio that would still be very manageable. And in fact, would be not far from where many of our competitors were entering the COVID crisis.

就尼爾的問題和宏觀而言，就在兩年前的今天，在這次財報電話會議上，雪佛龍是唯一一家在布倫特原油 30 美元處顯示 2 年壓力測試的公司。那是一次真正的壓力測試。我們表明我們可以保持股息，投資於業務以獲得長期價值。我們當然減少了一些短期資本。是的，我們會承擔一些債務，但我們的債務比率仍然非常可控。事實上，離我們的許多競爭對手進入 COVID 危機的地方不遠。

So as Mike says, we're mindful of the cycles that are in our business, we have to plan and manage for them. Again, we could have -- we can afford a much bigger buyback program next quarter. We don't -- you know, Jeanine, a net debt ratio under 11% is not what we're targeting. I mean that's just how the math works. We grew our dividend 6% earlier this year. Our dividend is up nearly 20% since COVID, while many in the industry cut their dividends during the last couple of years. Our investment -- organic investment is up more than 30% versus last year. When you include our announced acquisitions, total investment is up 50%. So clearly, we're investing, as Mike has said, to grow both our traditional and new energy businesses.

因此，正如邁克所說，我們注意到我們業務中的周期，我們必須為它們進行計劃和管理。同樣，我們本可以——下個季度我們可以負擔得起更大的回購計劃。我們不 - 你知道，珍妮，淨債務比率低於 11% 不是我們的目標。我的意思是這就是數學的運作方式。今年早些時候，我們的股息增長了 6%。自 COVID 以來，我們的股息增長了近 20%，而業內許多人在過去幾年中削減了股息。我們的投資——有機投資比去年增長了 30% 以上。當您將我們宣布的收購包括在內時，總投資增加了 50%。很明顯，正如邁克所說，我們正在投資以發展我們的傳統和新能源業務。

And we paid down debt, and we've been increasing our buyback as we've seen the strength of this upcycle and the likely duration of it increase, but the cycle will turn, and we'll continue to do buybacks. And so we want to set the buyback at a rate that we can manage in, not only at our mid-cycle cash flow generation capability, but even when it goes below that. Again, we're going to -- there's going to be a time where we're going to be buying back shares, and we'll be doing it on the balance sheet because we want to relever back closer to that 20% to 25% net debt ratio range that I've talked about.

我們還清了債務，我們一直在增加我們的回購，因為我們已經看到這個上升週期的強度和它的可能持續時間增加，但周期將會轉向，我們將繼續進行回購。因此，我們希望將回購設定在我們可以管理的速度上，不僅是在我們的中期現金流產生能力，而且即使它低於這個水平。再一次，我們將——有一段時間我們將回購股票，我們將在資產負債表上這樣做，因為我們希望重新調整到接近 20% 至 25% 的水平我已經談到的 % 淨債務比率範圍。

Okay. Great. Very helpful. Maybe if we just can move back to the assets on the Permian. Permian for you guys is firing on all cylinders, clearly have a big asset there with huge long-term value. One of the things that has been talked about a bunch recently is just FT on the gas side and how you kind of see that evolving. Just wondering how Chevron is looking at that for your long-term plans?

好的。偉大的。很有幫助。也許如果我們能回到二疊紀的資產。對你們來說，二疊紀正在全力以赴，顯然在那裡擁有巨大的長期價值。最近人們談論的一件事就是氣體方面的 FT 以及你如何看待它的演變。只是想知道雪佛龍如何看待您的長期計劃？

Yes, Jeanine, we -- I'm glad you talked about long-term plans because we've had a long-term Permian plan. And interestingly, notwithstanding one of the most volatile 2-year periods we've seen, our production profile doesn't look that different than it did just a couple of years ago in terms of where we're headed. And of course, that drives everything from contracting for rigs and completion services to takeaway capacity for oil and gas liquids and gas. We've got sufficient takeaway capacity for our production through the middle of this decade.

是的，珍妮，我們——我很高興你談到了長期計劃，因為我們有一個長期的二疊紀計劃。有趣的是，儘管是我們所見過的最不穩定的 2 年時期之一，但就我們的發展方向而言，我們的生產概況與幾年前相比並沒有太大的不同。當然，這推動了從鑽井和完井服務的合同到石油和天然氣液體和天然氣的外賣能力的一切。到本世紀中期，我們有足夠的外賣能力進行生產。

And as we look forward, we're working on what it takes beyond that period of time. So we don't flare in the Permian. And so we've got to be sure we've got gas takeaway or we're not going to produce oil. And so it's a high priority for our midstream team. But we don't see pinch points anytime soon, and we continue to be a very attractive shipper for the people that we do business with because we're predictable. We've got a strong track record of continuing to deliver the growth that we have indicated. We got a strong balance sheet, and all those things mean that people like to do business with us. So we feel pretty good about that for the next few years.

在我們向前看的時候，我們正在努力超越這段時間。所以我們不會在二疊紀爆發。所以我們必須確保我們有天然氣外賣，否則我們不會生產石油。因此，對於我們的中游團隊來說，這是一個高度優先事項。但我們不會很快看到關鍵點，而且對於與我們有業務往來的人來說，我們仍然是一個非常有吸引力的托運人，因為我們是可預測的。我們在繼續實現我們所指出的增長方面有著良好的記錄。我們擁有強大的資產負債表，所有這些都意味著人們喜歡與我們開展業務。所以在接下來的幾年裡，我們對此感覺很好。

We'll take our question from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們將向豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng 提問。

Two questions, please. First on inflation. Pierre, just curious, I mean for your CapEx for the next, say, 2 or 3 years, do you have a percentage you can share? What percent of your CapEx is in pretty much fixed price contracts, so don't subject much to inflation and what percent is really quite vulnerable to the inflation? And also, when we're looking at your CapEx for this year, the Bunge JV $600 million investment, is that included in your original budget or that this will be in addition to your original budget? That's the first question.

請教兩個問題。首先是通貨膨脹。皮埃爾，只是好奇，我的意思是你未來的資本支出，比如說，2 或 3 年，你有可以分享的百分比嗎？您的資本支出中有多少百分比是在幾乎固定價格的合同中，所以不會受到通貨膨脹的影響，有多少百分比真的很容易受到通貨膨脹的影響？此外，當我們查看您今年的資本支出時，邦吉合資公司 6 億美元的投資，是否包含在您的原始預算中，或者這將是您原始預算的補充？這是第一個問題。

The second question maybe is for Mike, that with the much sharply higher commodity prices, when you have discussion and negotiation with the NOC, the host government, is there a change in the attitude or that it become more difficult for you to get better terms? Or that this is happening too quick and so you haven't really seen any change in the way how you conduct the discussion with your counterpart in the national companies or the host government?

第二個問題可能是給邁克的，隨著大宗商品價格大幅上漲，當你與東道國國家奧委會進行討論和談判時，態度是否發生了變化，或者你獲得更好的條件變得更加困難?或者這發生得太快了，所以你沒有真正看到你與國家公司或東道國政府的同行進行討論的方式有任何變化？

I'll start...

我會開始...

Pierre, do you want to start on -- yes, go ahead.

皮埃爾，你想開始——是的，繼續。

Yes, I'll start on the first question. There are several parts to it. So first, the Bunge joint venture, anything that is an acquisition inorganic is not included in our $15.3 billion budget that we shared back in December. So I think we cited that, in fact, in that press release that Bunge would be in addition. And then the other potential inorganic, there was a little bit of inorganic in the first quarter that included an investment in Carbon Clean, a technology company. REG also will not be included. You won't see REG though, even in our total capital, our total C&E because it's a company acquisition.

是的，我將從第一個問題開始。它有幾個部分。首先，邦吉合資企業，任何收購無機物都不包括在我們去年 12 月分享的 153 億美元預算中。因此，我認為我們實際上在新聞稿中提到了 Bunge 將添加的內容。然後是另一個潛在的無機物，第一季度有一點無機物，其中包括對科技公司 Carbon Clean 的投資。 REG 也將不包括在內。不過，即使在我們的總資本、總 C&E 中，您也不會看到 REG，因為這是對公司的收購。

So let me just talk about cost inflation a little bit. We are seeing more cost pressure in the Permian. It's manageable. But if we go outside the U.S. seeing hardly any or much more modest increases, and none of that is changing our $15.3 billion CapEx budget that we've talked about. I'll remind everyone that the Permian is 20% of our capital budget. So it gets a lot of attention. But again, 80% of it is not -- or outside the U.S. is not seeing much cost pressure at all.

所以讓我稍微談談成本膨脹。我們在二疊紀看到了更大的成本壓力。這是可以管理的。但是，如果我們走出美國，幾乎看不到任何或更溫和的增長，而且這些都不會改變我們已經談到的 153 億美元的資本支出預算。我會提醒大家，二疊紀占我們資本預算的 20%。所以會受到很多關注。但同樣，其中 80% 沒有——或者在美國以外根本沒有看到太大的成本壓力。

In the Permian, as Mike said, we plan our business. So we have all the equipment and services to execute our plan. And we've seen a little bit more than we had budgeted, but we can offset some of that with efficiencies in the Permian and with reductions elsewhere in the portfolio. Our focus is turning to 2023 and securing all the equipment and services that we'll need to execute that plan. But we'll share the details as we update our annual budget, which we do every December.

正如邁克所說，在二疊紀，我們計劃我們的業務。因此，我們擁有執行我們計劃的所有設備和服務。我們看到的比我們的預算多一點，但我們可以通過二疊紀的效率和投資組合其他地方的減少來抵消一些。我們的重點是轉向 2023 年，並確保我們執行該計劃所需的所有設備和服務。但我們會在每年 12 月更新年度預算時分享詳細信息。

In general, Paul, you can think that we contract 30% to 40% of our total supplies each year. So that every 2 to 3 years on a rotational basis, it can vary, it depends by location. But we don't -- notionally, we are going to be exposed to some of these higher prices as we move into future years. Again, we've been able to manage this year very well depending on -- due to how we contracted previously.

總的來說，保羅，你可以認為我們每年承包總供應量的 30% 到 40%。因此，每 2 到 3 年輪換一次，它可能會有所不同，這取決於位置。但我們不會 - 從理論上講，隨著我們進入未來幾年，我們將面臨其中一些更高的價格。同樣，由於我們之前的合同方式，我們今年能夠很好地管理。

Our $15 billion to $17 billion capital guidance, which goes on for 5 years, kind of assumes mid-cycle conditions. So it has the ability to absorb some of these cost increases that are transient. And so we'll execute within that. We have Tengiz coming off, which will open up more room in that capital guidance. And again, we'll share all the details when we release our capital budget in December.

我們持續 5 年的 150 億至 170 億美元的資本指導是假設週期中期的情況。因此，它有能力吸收一些暫時的成本增加。所以我們將在其中執行。我們讓 Tengiz 退出，這將在資本指導方面開闢更多空間。同樣，我們將在 12 月發布資本預算時分享所有細節。

But the bottom line is we're seeing modest increase. As we said, overall, our capital budget had just a few low single digits of COGS inflation for this year, a little bit more than that in the Permian. It's all very manageable, and we're working hard to secure contracts for future years activity. Mike?

但最重要的是，我們看到了適度的增長。正如我們所說，總體而言，今年我們的資本預算只有幾個低個位數的 COGS 通脹，比二疊紀要高一點。這一切都非常易於管理，我們正在努力確保未來幾年活動的合同。麥克風？

Okay. Paul, your second question was on discussions with host governments on concessions and how that may be affected by the price environment. I would tell you that right now, we're pretty early into this price upcycle. And I'm not sure that I can say we've seen a lot of change as people are really adjusting to the environment we're in. But on the broader issue of concession extensions, look, we've got to find these opportunities and negotiations that create value for the company and for the host country. And so you really have to look at it through the lens of both.

好的。保羅，你的第二個問題是關於與東道國政府討論讓步以及價格環境可能如何影響。我會告訴你，現在，我們還處於這個價格上升週期的早期階段。而且我不確定我可以說我們已經看到了很多變化，因為人們正在真正適應我們所處的環境。但是在更廣泛的特許權擴展問題上，看，我們必須找到這些機會以及為公司和東道國創造價值的談判。所以你真的必須從兩者的角度來看待它。

We had long histories in both Indonesia and Thailand. I would have liked to extend those concessions that are rolling off last year and this year, but we couldn't find an outcome that satisfied the host governments expectations and that would compete for capital within our portfolio, which has got a lot of alternatives. The flip side of that is Angola, where we last year extended our Block 0 concession from 2030 out to 2050. And that's a partnership that started more than 60 years ago. And there was a lot of common ground there on contributing to reliable and cleaner supply for Angola, reducing greenhouse gas emissions there and finding a way to do that on terms that will attract capital within our portfolio.

我們在印度尼西亞和泰國都有悠久的歷史。我本來想延長去年和今年推出的那些讓步，但我們找不到滿足東道國政府期望的結果，並且無法在我們的投資組合中競爭資本，而投資組合有很多替代方案。另一方面是安哥拉，我們去年將我們的 Block 0 特許權從 2030 年延長至 2050 年。這是 60 多年前開始的合作夥伴關係。在為安哥拉提供可靠和清潔的供應、減少那裡的溫室氣體排放以及找到一種能夠在我們的投資組合中吸引資本的條件下實現這一目標的方法有很多共同點。

So we approach each one of these things, looking for value for our shareholders and to provide a proposition for other stakeholders that they find acceptable. Sometimes we can achieve that. Other times, we can't. So more to follow probably in terms of -- if this turns out to be a long upcycle, how that may change those dynamics. But I think the fundamental approach that we take is unlikely to change.

因此，我們處理每一件事，為我們的股東尋找價值，並為其他利益相關者提供他們認為可以接受的提議。有時我們可以做到這一點。其他時候，我們不能。因此，可能會在以下方面進行更多關注-如果結果證明這是一個漫長的上升週期，那將如何改變這些動態。但我認為我們採取的基本方法不太可能改變。

We'll take our next question from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們將向富國銀行的 Roger Read 提出我們的下一個問題。

Yes. If we could maybe talk a little bit about some of the bigger projects, thinking about your answer earlier, Mike, on some of the macro items and under investment. I know you have some things in the Gulf of Mexico. You've obviously got an extensive LNG footprint globally. How do you think over the next couple of years blending in your kind of known deepwater projects and then the possibility of doing something again on the LNG front?

是的。如果我們可以談談一些更大的項目，想想你早些時候的回答，邁克，關於一些宏觀項目和投資。我知道你在墨西哥灣有一些東西。顯然，您在全球擁有廣泛的 LNG 足跡。您如何看待在接下來的幾年中融入您已知的深水項目，然後在 LNG 前沿再做一些事情的可能性？

Yes. So we've got a nice set of projects under development in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Jack/St. Malo has a multiphase pumping project that will start up this year. Next year, we'll hit the first waterflood injection on St. Malo and some additional development drilling there. Big Foot, which is on production right now. We've got ongoing development drilling and water injection soon to follow. Mad Dog 2 is slated for first oil this year. We've got Anchor, which is expected to have first oil in 2024. Whale also expecting to have first oil in 2024. We just sanctioned Ballymore, which we'll have first oil in 2025.

是的。因此，我們在墨西哥灣深水區開發了一系列不錯的項目。傑克/聖。 Malo 有一個將於今年啟動的多相泵送項目。明年，我們將在聖馬洛進行第一次注水，並在那裡進行一些額外的開發鑽探。 Big Foot，目前正在生產中。我們很快就會進行持續的開發鑽探和注水。 Mad Dog 2 計劃在今年首次使用石油。我們有 Anchor，預計將在 2024 年獲得第一批石油。鯨魚也希望在 2024 年獲得第一批石油。我們剛剛批准了 Ballymore，我們將在 2025 年獲得第一批石油。

So there are -- there's a queue of these things that is rolling through. And what's a little bit different than in the past is they're not all in the same phase of development at the same time. So I gave you those kind of in order of when they come on production. But we don't have them just sitting on top of each other. So a lot of the lessons of maybe the last upcycle were don't take on more than you or your suppliers and contractors have the capacity to do well in any given period of time, and we're really trying to apply that here.

所以有 - 這些事情的隊列正在滾動。與過去略有不同的是，它們並非同時處於同一發展階段。所以我按照它們何時開始生產的順序給了你這些。但我們並沒有讓它們只是坐在彼此之上。因此，也許上一個升級週期的許多經驗教訓並沒有超過您或您的供應商和承包商在任何給定時間段內表現良好的能力，我們真的試圖在這裡應用這一點。

So it doesn't get as much attention or interest as we get from the Permian these days or Kazakhstan, but a really important part of our portfolio, really nice projects and very low carbon energy for the world. I mean, this is some of the lowest carbon intensity stuff in our portfolio. Our portfolio averages about 28 kilograms of CO2 per BOE. Our Gulf of Mexico averages 6. So it's not only economic, it's low carbon. It's something that I think that our country is blessed with and should continue to advance leasing in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.

因此，它並沒有像我們現在從二疊紀或哈薩克斯坦得到的那樣受到關注或興趣，而是我們投資組合中非常重要的一部分，非常好的項目和世界上的低碳能源。我的意思是，這是我們投資組合中碳強度最低的一些東西。我們的投資組合平均每 BOE 排放約 28 公斤二氧化碳。我們的墨西哥灣平均為 6。所以這不僅是經濟的，而且是低碳的。我認為我們國家有幸並且應該繼續推進墨西哥灣深水區的租賃。

On the other question, LNG. I addressed earlier a little bit of the -- we got a number of options in the Eastern Mediterranean. We're talking to some people here in the U.S. You may have seen media reports that we have been talking to people in the Middle East about expansion projects there. So we're evaluating a number of different opportunities. We'd like to grow our LNG position. The world needs it. But similar to my response to Paul, it's got to compete for capital.

關於另一個問題，液化天然氣。我之前談到了一點——我們在東地中海有很多選擇。我們正在與美國的一些人交談。您可能已經看到媒體報導，我們一直在與中東的人們討論那裡的擴張項目。因此，我們正在評估許多不同的機會。我們希望擴大我們的液化天然氣地位。世界需要它。但類似於我對保羅的回應，它必須爭奪資本。

In our portfolio, Pierre mentioned, we're going to stay disciplined on capital. We've given you a range. We've stuck within that range. Ever since we started putting that out here, and that would be the intent. So just because something looks good through the lens of growth and commodity exposure is also got to compete for capital in a disciplined budget. And so we'll just see which of those, ultimately, if any, kind of past that screen.

皮埃爾提到，在我們的投資組合中，我們將保持對資本的約束。我們給了你一個範圍。我們一直停留在那個範圍內。自從我們開始把它放在這裡，這就是意圖。因此，僅僅因為從增長和商品敞口的角度來看，某些東西看起來不錯，就必須在嚴格的預算中競爭資本。因此，我們將看到最終（如果有的話）通過那個屏幕。

We'll go next to Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

我們將和 Piper Sandler 一起去 Ryan Todd。

Maybe a follow-up on LNG. I mean the last couple of quarters have been impacted by various LNG volumes offline. I know you've leased on an LNG statement in the second quarter. Any kind of clarity you can give in terms of how much volume impact that might have? And beyond that, can you give an update on the other potential volume disruptions across your LNG operations?

也許是液化天然氣的後續行動。我的意思是過去幾個季度受到各種 LNG 離線量的影響。我知道你在第二季度租用了一份液化天然氣聲明。您可以就可能產生的音量影響給出任何明確的說明？除此之外，您能否提供有關您的 LNG 運營中其他潛在數量中斷的最新信息？

Yes. So in the first quarter, we had a little bit at Gorgon from some of the things that we had talked about earlier. So some discovery work that was proactive, not related to an incident, but it was asset integrity work across all 3 trains. A little bit of that came into the first quarter of this year. Wheatstone has a turnaround underway right now of one of the 2 trains and also the offshore platform and some common facilities, which -- that requires both trains to come down when you take the offshore and common facilities down.

是的。所以在第一季度，我們從我們之前談到的一些事情中對 Gorgon 有了一點了解。因此，一些主動的發現工作與事件無關，但它是所有 3 列火車的資產完整性工作。其中一點點進入了今年的第一季度。惠斯通目前正在對兩列火車中的一列以及海上平台和一些公共設施進行周轉，這需要兩列火車在您關閉海上和公共設施時都下來。

The good news is that part of the turnover is behind us right now. And we're in the process of resuming production at one of the 2 trains there at Wheatstone and should have first LNG any day now. And actually, the second train will be early May. So we're nearly through that turnaround. Then we also have a turnaround in -- at Angola LNG. And so that will be in the second quarter -- late in the second quarter and that's really what we've got planned for this year. Second quarter takes all the planned turnaround activity essentially or the majority of it.

好消息是，部分營業額現在已經過去了。我們正在惠斯通的兩列火車中的一列恢復生產，現在應該每天都有第一批液化天然氣。實際上，第二班火車將在五月初。所以我們幾乎完成了那個轉變。然後我們在安哥拉液化天然氣公司也有轉機。所以這將在第二季度 - 第二季度末，這就是我們今年的計劃。第二季度基本上或大部分完成了所有計劃的周轉活動。

Okay. And then maybe a second question on refining. Can you talk about some of the -- I guess, as you think about the -- some of the headwinds that were maybe felt during the first quarter and relative to headline margins, whether it's lag on timing effects or secondary products or things like that. Can you talk about how some of those trends may reverse or shift into the second quarter looking forward? And how you think about the ability to kind of capture some of that back as we look in through second quarter and third quarter?

好的。然後也許是關於精煉的第二個問題。你能談談 - 我猜，正如你所想的那樣 - 第一季度可能感受到的一些不利因素以及相對於總體利潤率，無論是時間效應還是二級產品或類似的東西的滯後.您能否談談其中一些趨勢可能會如何逆轉或轉移到展望第二季度？當我們回顧第二季度和第三季度時，您如何看待能夠捕捉到其中一些的能力？

Yes. I'll take a pass, then Pierre might want to add something. Look, we see this in our downstream business. We're a little bit differently positioned than some of our peers in that. We've got pretty heavy U.S. West Coast exposure and heavy Asia exposure, but then we're pretty light in the Middle East or Europe and some of the other basins. So our portfolio is a little concentrated more so than others. And so -- we're subject to the dynamics in those markets. China has been in a lot of kind of ongoing lockdowns.

是的。我會通過，然後皮埃爾可能想要添加一些東西。看，我們在下游業務中看到了這一點。在這方面，我們的定位與我們的一些同行略有不同。我們在美國西海岸和亞洲的敞口相當大，但在中東或歐洲和其他一些盆地，我們的敞口相當輕。因此，我們的投資組合比其他投資組合更加集中。所以——我們受制於這些市場的動態。中國一直處於許多持續的封鎖狀態。

California, frankly, has had a little more aggressive COVID policy longer than some other parts of the world. And so demand has reflected that to a certain degree. And then in a rising crude market, we have 2 effects that tend to roll through our downstream. One is just the way our inventory is valued and so in a rising market, we tend to see inventory -- negative inventory effects due to the LIFO accounting that we use. And we also tend to see -- we're long physical and short paper as we try not to take price exposure. But that paper marks to market until the physical closes.

坦率地說，加州的 COVID 政策比世界其他一些地區更激進一些。所以需求在一定程度上反映了這一點。然後在上漲的原油市場中，我們有兩個影響往往會在我們的下游滾動。一種是我們的庫存估值方式，因此在上升的市場中，我們往往會看到庫存——由於我們使用的後進先出法會計導致的負面庫存效應。而且我們也傾向於看到——我們做多實物，做空票據，因為我們盡量不承擔價格風險。但那張紙標記市場，直到實物關閉。

And so in a rising market, your papers marking negative, the physical obviously, is gaining. And so you see that paper and then the physical deliveries you close out the paper and you match those up. So in a rising market, those 2 effects tend to cause negatives. I think in the second quarter of this year, we'll probably see a lot of that reverse.

因此，在一個上漲的市場中，你的論文標記為負面，顯然是物理的，正在增加。因此，您會看到那張紙，然後是實物交付，然後您關閉紙並匹配它們。因此，在上漲的市場中，這兩種影響往往會導致負面影響。我認為在今年第二季度，我們可能會看到很多相反的情況。

We'll go next to Manav Gupta with Credit Suisse.

我們將與瑞士信貸一起前往 Manav Gupta。

My first question is a quick clarification. You did indicate there was a storm at CPC. I think it came somewhere late March, but the impact would probably be felt more in 2Q. So help us understand how long the facilities were down? And how should we model the impact on production because of this particular storm?

我的第一個問題是快速澄清。你確實表示 CPC 有風暴。我認為它出現在 3 月下旬的某個地方，但在第二季度可能會感受到更多的影響。因此，請幫助我們了解設施關閉了多長時間？我們應該如何模擬這場特殊風暴對生產的影響？

Yes. So -- yes, you want to handle that, Pierre? Go ahead.

是的。所以——是的，你想處理那個，皮埃爾？前進。

Yes. That's in our guidance, Manav, that we provided in -- for the second quarter production impacts from planned turnarounds and downtime. And again, the CPC TCO impact is about 15% or less than 15% of that total.

是的。這是我們在 Manav 中提供的指導——針對計劃周轉和停機時間對第二季度生產的影響。再一次，CPC TCO 的影響約為總成本的 15% 或不到 15%。

Okay. And then the second thing is...

好的。然後第二件事是……

And you're right, Manav. It was late March when it came up. So the effect is really in the month of April.

你是對的，馬納夫。當它出現時，已經是三月下旬了。所以效果真的是在四月份。

Perfect. At your energy transition day, you had provided certain targets for growing your renewable fuel franchise, and REG gets you a very long way when it comes to renewable diesel. But another area you were generally bullish on was sustainable aviation fuel. You had indicated that long term, you believe this is a big growth market. So can you help us understand, since then and going forward, how does Chevron plan to build on its sustainable aviation fuel business?

完美的。在您的能源轉型日，您為發展可再生燃料特許經營提供了某些目標，而 REG 在可再生柴油方面為您提供了很長的路要走。但另一個你普遍看好的領域是可持續航空燃料。您曾表示，從長遠來看，您認為這是一個巨大的增長市場。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解，從那時起以及今後，雪佛龍計劃如何在其可持續航空燃料業務的基礎上再接再厲？

Yes, Manav. We -- obviously, aviation demand is going to grow as we go forward. And finding a solution, it's one of the hardest to decarbonize segments of the economy because you need to have high energy density for aviation fuels or planes can't carry much in terms of their cargo. So it's an area of focus. In a traditional refinery, the distillate portion of the barrel, you can move molecules from diesel to kerosene or jet fuel. And the renewable diesel investments that we're making, there's a certain flexibility that you have there as well.

是的，馬納夫。我們——顯然，隨著我們前進，航空需求將會增長。找到解決方案是最難的經濟領域脫碳之一，因為您需要為航空燃料提供高能量密度，否則飛機無法承載太多貨物。所以這是一個重點領域。在傳統的煉油廠，桶的餾出物部分，您可以將分子從柴油轉移到煤油或噴氣燃料。我們正在進行的可再生柴油投資也具有一定的靈活性。

And so we will have the ability to produce. In fact, we've already produced some sustainable aviation fuel at El Segundo. And we'll see more of that coming through some of our renewable diesel facilities. We have also get negotiations underway with some other companies that have different technologies that wouldn't necessarily be the same as what we would do in a refinery. And so we're looking at alternate pathways, feedstock partnerships and pathways.

所以我們將有能力生產。事實上，我們已經在 El Segundo 生產了一些可持續的航空燃料。我們將通過我們的一些可再生柴油設施看到更多這種情況。我們還在與其他一些擁有不同技術的公司進行談判，這些技術不一定與我們在煉油廠中所做的相同。因此，我們正在尋找替代途徑、原料合作夥伴關係和途徑。

This is all going to take time to come together. Quality control is really important in aviation fuels, reliability of supply is really important. And as we introduce new feedstocks, new technology pathways, you have to be really diligent in ensuring that the fuel that you ultimately produce and sell is going to perform in the engines that it's going to be consumed into.

這一切都需要時間才能走到一起。質量控制在航空燃料中非常重要，供應的可靠性非常重要。當我們引入新原料、新技術途徑時，您必須非常努力地確保您最終生產和銷售的燃料能夠在將要消耗的發動機中發揮作用。

The last thing I'll say is none of this stuff is inexpensive. And sustainable aviation fuel today is not competitive with traditional aviation fuel from a cost standpoint. There has been some talk in Washington about various policy incentives that could be put into place to encourage more sustainable aviation fuel. There's a letter that was published by a whole host of people, airlines and others just in the last week or so calling for action. And I think to see this scale, we got to keep working on technology in feedstocks but it's likely that some sort of policy incentives will be part of the equation in order to see more capital drawn into sustainable aviation fuel.

我要說的最後一件事是這些東西都不便宜。從成本的角度來看，今天的可持續航空燃料與傳統航空燃料相比沒有競爭力。華盛頓已經討論了可以實施的各種政策激勵措施，以鼓勵更可持續的航空燃料。就在上週左右，一大群人、航空公司和其他人發表了一封信，呼籲採取行動。而且我認為看到這種規模，我們必須繼續致力於原料技術，但很可能某種政策激勵措施將成為等式的一部分，以便看到更多資金用於可持續航空燃料。

We'll take our next question from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們將向美國銀行的 Doug Leggate 提出下一個問題。

Mike, I know you've plugged to death, I guess, the questions around CPC, Kazakhstan and so on. I wonder if I could just ask a slightly different question around what's happening to realizations, insurance rates, whether that could be a durable discount on the value of the barrel coming out of Tengiz and over what timeline? So I don't know if you can offer any color there, but obviously, it's something we noticed going on in the market.

邁克，我知道你已經把關於中國共產黨、哈薩克斯坦等的問題塞死了。我想知道我是否可以就實現情況、保險費率、這是否可以對從 Tengiz 出來的桶的價值進行持久折扣以及在什麼時間表上提出一個稍微不同的問題？所以我不知道你們是否可以在那裡提供任何顏色，但顯然，這是我們注意到市場上正在發生的事情。

Sure. So pre-invasion, CPC discounts were maybe $1 or so to dated Brent. Post-invasion, the trading rate insurance kind of been $4 to $10 net prices at a pricing point called Augusta, which includes insurance and freight. So yes, there's been a move. It's, call it, $7 or $8 today, probably. Now absolute price obviously has moved up a lot more than that. But there's a little bit that you could argue as being left on the table.

當然。因此，在入侵前，CPC 對過時的布倫特原油的折扣可能為 1 美元左右。入侵後，交易費率保險在稱為奧古斯塔的定價點為 4 至 10 美元的淨價格，其中包括保險和運費。所以是的，有一個動作。今天可能是 7 美元或 8 美元。現在絕對價格顯然已經上漲了很多。但是有一點你可以爭論為被留在桌子上。

I think a lot of it, Doug, depends on how things are resolved in Ukraine and what the longer-term posture is relative to sanctions, the perceived risk of lifting at Novvi resis and how that translates into demand from customers and the expectations from shipowners and whether it's freight rates, insurance, et cetera, are people willing to send ships back in there the way they historically have or not.

道格，我認為很大程度上取決於烏克蘭的問題是如何解決的，以及與製裁相關的長期態勢是什麼，在 Novvi resis 解除的感知風險以及這如何轉化為客戶的需求和船東的期望無論是運費、保險等，人們是否願意按照他們過去的方式將船隻送回那裡。

So it's a hypothetical. I think that I can't really speculate on how that settles out. But I think it's a function of how this whole situation is resolved and what kind of risks people perceive on the other side of the conflict resolution.

所以這是一個假設。我認為我無法真正推測這是如何解決的。但我認為這取決於整個情況如何解決，以及人們在衝突解決的另一端感知到什麼樣的風險。

I know it's a tough one to ask in the relatively early stages of this whole thing. So thanks, Mike, for having a go. I guess my follow-up, and I think it might have been Neil mentioned it earlier, but your credentials on M&A are obviously probably the best in the industry now, Mike, and you've led that. So -- and well earned. But your balance sheet into a point as you thought it's kind of almost back to 2013, '14 levels, if you take -- project out a year or so. And there's strategic opportunities as this whole thing evolves, particularly perhaps in U.S. gas, LNG and so on.

我知道在整個事情的相對早期階段提出這個要求是很困難的。非常感謝邁克，請您試一試。我想我的後續行動，我認為可能是尼爾之前提到的，但你在併購方面的資歷顯然可能是現在業內最好的，邁克，你已經領導了。所以——而且賺得盆滿缽滿。但是你的資產負債表變成了一個點，你認為它幾乎回到了 2013 年的 14 個水平，如果你考慮 - 預計一年左右。隨著整個事情的發展，尤其是在美國天然氣、液化天然氣等領域，存在著戰略機遇。

So I wonder if I could ask the M&A question a little differently as well, which is when you look at your business today and how you'd have invested and how you've transitioned through Noble and so on, is there any way you would identify, for one of a better expression, a strategic want or a strategic hole that you would like to fill? And what would that look like?

所以我想知道我是否也可以以不同的方式提出併購問題，即當你今天看待你的業務時，你會如何投資，你是如何通過來寶過渡的等等，你有什麼辦法嗎？為了更好地表達，確定您想要填補的戰略需求或戰略漏洞？那會是什麼樣子？

Yes, Doug, I appreciate the comments about our M&A track record and our financial strength. Those are 2 things that we've worked hard to establish. I'll tell you, we like our portfolio. We've provided, again, I think in this year's Investor Day, a 10-year outlook that says how much resource have we captured and could conceivably flow into production, not that, that's a production to forecast, but it's really a look at resource depth.

是的，Doug，我很欣賞有關我們併購記錄和財務實力的評論。這是我們努力建立的兩件事。我會告訴你，我們喜歡我們的投資組合。我認為，在今年的投資者日，我們再次提供了 10 年展望，說明我們捕獲了多少資源並且可以想像流入生產，不是那個，這是一個需要預測的生產，但它真的是一個看資源深度。

We've talked a little bit today about gas. We're a little oilier than most. And so over time, can we increase some of our gas exposure would be one question. We like petrochemicals. We like CPChem a lot. We've got a big chemicals business embedded in Korea, in GS Caltex. The growth prospects in the petrochemicals business continue to look attractive. And then we've been active in new energies. And so the renewable fuels business that we talked about, some other things that we're looking at in that space as well.

我們今天談了一點關於天然氣的事情。我們比大多數人更油膩。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們能否增加一些氣體暴露量將是一個問題。我們喜歡石化產品。我們非常喜歡 CPChem。我們在韓國的 GS Caltex 有一個大型的化學品業務。石化業務的增長前景繼續具有吸引力。然後我們一直活躍在新能源中。因此，我們談到了可再生燃料業務，以及我們在該領域正在研究的其他一些事情。

And so look, we're trying to leverage our strengths to deliver lower carbon energy to a growing world. And I think that drives the way we think about our portfolio today and tomorrow. And a number of things I've mentioned there, right, are lower carbon contributions to economic growth and prosperity. So that would be how we think about it. But I don't want to leave the impression that we're off to the races to do anything tomorrow because we like our portfolio as it sits today and don't feel like there's a hole that has to be filled in the short term. So we really can take a long-term look. We can be patient. We can be selective if we decide to do anything.

所以看，我們正試圖利用我們的優勢為不斷發展的世界提供低碳能源。我認為這推動了我們今天和明天思考我們的投資組合的方式。我在那裡提到的一些事情，對，是對經濟增長和繁榮的低碳貢獻。這就是我們的想法。但我不想留下這樣的印象，即我們明天要去參加比賽以做任何事情，因為我們喜歡我們今天的投資組合，並且不覺得短期內有需要填補的漏洞。所以我們真的可以放眼長遠。我們可以耐心等待。如果我們決定做任何事情，我們可以有選擇性。

We'll take our next question from Jason Gabelman with Cowen.

我們將向 Jason Gabelman 和 Cowen 提出我們的下一個問題。

First, I just wanted to clarify on the LNG maintenance. What is the cadence of maintenance across your assets going forward in future years? You've obviously had a period of very concentrated maintenance events. Is it 1 train a year? Or how do we think about that on a normalized basis? And then my follow-up is, just given the changing energy dynamics, I wonder if your discussions with governments, both domestically and abroad, if the discussions and the sentiment has changed at all in terms of the ability to invest in places? And if that's in any way starting to reshape the way you look at your investment opportunities?

首先，我只是想澄清一下 LNG 的維護。未來幾年對您的資產進行維護的節奏是什麼？您顯然經歷了一段非常集中的維護事件。是一年一班嗎？或者我們如何在標準化的基礎上考慮這一點？然後我的後續行動是，考慮到不斷變化的能源動態，我想知道您與國內外政府的討論，就投資地方的能力而言，討論和情緒是否發生了變化？如果這以任何方式開始重塑您看待投資機會的方式？

Okay. LNG turnarounds were typically at a 4-year turnaround cycle. So what that means is that Gorgon with 3 trains, you'll have 3 out of the 4 years, you'll have 1 turnaround. At Wheatstone with 2 trains, 2 out of every 4 years, you'll see a turnaround. And at Angola LNG, where we've got a single train, 1 out of every 4 years, you'll see a turnaround. On government discussions, it's just early, Jason, to say. I don't think anybody's really fully adapted or no one knows what the environment is likely to look like a year from now, 2 years from now, 5 years from now. So I think that's one that is a work-in-progress.

好的。液化天然氣的周轉週期通常為 4 年。所以這意味著 Gorgon 有 3 列火車，在 4 年中你將有 3 年，你將有 1 次周轉。在惠斯通有 2 列火車，每 4 年有 2 列，您會看到轉機。在安哥拉液化天然氣公司，我們只有一列火車，每 4 年就有 1 趟，你會看到好轉。關於政府討論，Jason 說現在還為時過早。我認為沒有人真正完全適應，或者沒有人知道一年後、2 年後、5 年後環境可能會是什麼樣子。所以我認為這是一項正在進行的工作。

We'll take our next question from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

我們將向RBC 的Biraj Borkhataria 提出我們的下一個問題。

The first one is just thinking about the capital framework again. And through the various presentations in recent years, the management team has been very consistent in talking about improving book returns. I think, Pierre, you've been quite emphatic around stating that the market doesn't reward higher capital spending, given, I guess, the industry's track record. I understand the CapEx budget in the range was only put out there a short while ago, but obviously, a lot has changed in recent months.

第一個只是再次考慮資本框架。並且通過近年來的各種演講，管理團隊一直非常一致地談論提高賬面回報率。我認為，皮埃爾，你一直非常強調市場不會獎勵更高的資本支出，我猜，考慮到該行業的往績記錄。我知道該範圍內的資本支出預算只是在不久前才公佈的，但很明顯，最近幾個月發生了很多變化。

So the market clearly wants more energy. You are generating record amounts of cash, the buybacks are already at the top end of the range, shares are close to all-time highs. Do you think the market is sending signals yet that would support a capital budget increase beyond what you're doing in the Permian maybe through more exploration or otherwise? That's my first question.

所以市場顯然需要更多的能量。您正在產生創紀錄數量的現金，回購已經處於該範圍的頂端，股價接近歷史高位。您是否認為市場正在發出信號，通過更多的勘探或其他方式支持資本預算增加超出您在二疊紀所做的工作？這是我的第一個問題。

And the second question is on TCO and the growth projects there. Has anything that's happened in the last couple of months impacted your thinking around the timeline to deliver those growth projects going forward?

第二個問題是關於 TCO 和那裡的增長項目。過去幾個月發生的任何事情是否影響了您圍繞時間表交付這些增長項目的想法？

Yes. I'll -- Biraj, I'll take the second one, and then Pierre has been spending a lot of time with investors, and I'll let him talk to you about whether the market is signaling we ought to change our capital spend.

是的。我會 - Biraj，我會選擇第二個，然後 Pierre 已經花了很多時間與投資者交流，我會讓他和你談談市場是否在暗示我們應該改變我們的資本支出.

On TCO, we just had a pretty extensive update on the project here. Week before last, we made good progress through the winter. We're close to having our annual cost and schedule update done. But the high-level message on that is we look pretty good on budget still. We look good on the schedule for the future growth project, which is slated up -- slated to start up in the first half of '24. A little bit of pressure on WPMP, which I believe our last update on that was second half '23 -- late '23. So cost and schedule despite the challenges of COVID and the other kind of regional uncertainties still holding well. The project team there is doing an excellent job.

在 TCO 上，我們剛剛對這裡的項目進行了相當廣泛的更新。前一周，我們在整個冬天取得了良好的進展。我們即將完成年度成本和進度更新。但是關於這方面的高級信息是，我們在預算上看起來仍然相當不錯。我們看好未來增長項目的時間表，該項目計劃於 24 年上半年啟動。對 WPMP 有點壓力，我相信我們最後一次更新是在 23 年下半年 - 23 年末。因此，儘管面臨 COVID 和其他類型的區域不確定性的挑戰，成本和進度仍然保持良好。那裡的項目團隊做得很好。

So I think Jay will be on the second quarter call and can give you a more complete run down on things. We will have all these costs and schedule reviews completed, but nothing there that signals a significant change.

所以我認為傑伊將參加第二季度的電話會議，可以讓你更全面地了解事情。我們將完成所有這些成本和進度審查，但沒有任何跡象表明發生了重大變化。

Now Pierre, maybe you can talk about signals from the market on capital.

現在皮埃爾，也許你可以談談資本市場的信號。

We don't intend to change our capital guidance. The objective is to sustain and grow the enterprise at the lowest capital level. We're much more capital-efficient than we were just a few years ago, let alone a decade ago. We showed and Mike just referred to, that we can sustain and grow our traditional energy business at very reasonable rates and the rates that we don't need to grow faster, and we don't get paid for that. There's no time in the -- our history where the market has valued growth. I mean that's why we emphasize return on capital employed because we are income-oriented, dividend-paying returns type of investment.

我們不打算改變我們的資本指引。目標是以最低的資本水平維持和發展企業。與幾年前相比，我們的資本效率要高得多，更不用說十年前了。我們展示了，邁克剛剛提到，我們可以以非常合理的速度維持和發展我們的傳統能源業務，而且我們不需要更快地增長，而且我們沒有得到報酬。在我們的歷史上，市場沒有時間重視增長。我的意思是這就是我們強調所用資本回報的原因，因為我們是以收入為導向、支付股息的回報類型的投資。

And then, of course, we're growing new energies, and we have 2 big transactions are expected to close soon and more on the way. So if we're able to sustain and grow this enterprise, traditional energy at rates that are in line with industry growth rates, new energy faster. And we can do that at lower -- at less capital, that leaves more cash flow for shareholders.

然後，當然，我們正在發展新能源，我們有兩筆大交易預計很快就會完成，而且還會有更多交易。因此，如果我們能夠維持和發展這家企業，傳統能源的增長率與行業增長率一致，新能源的速度會更快。我們可以以更低的成本做到這一點 - 以更少的資本，為股東留下更多的現金流。

And so what you're seeing, and back to Jeanine's question and other questions, we generate -- at whatever the oil price you assume, we generate more free cash flow than we ever have in the past. And that means we're able to grow the dividend at very competitive rates and have this buyback that we can maintain across the cycle.

所以你所看到的，回到珍妮的問題和其他問題，我們產生 - 無論你假設什麼油價，我們產生的自由現金流比過去任何時候都多。這意味著我們能夠以極具競爭力的速度增加股息，並擁有我們可以在整個週期內維持的回購。

So we are very sensitive to doing our part. And as we said, we're growing energy supply in the U.S., in the Permian and other locations. At the same time, the objective for a capital-intensive commodity business is to do it in the most capital-efficient way. The more capital efficient we are, the more capital gets returned to shareholders.

所以我們對儘自己的一份力非常敏感。正如我們所說，我們正在增加美國、二疊紀和其他地區的能源供應。同時，資本密集型商品業務的目標是以最資本有效的方式進行。我們的資本效率越高，返還給股東的資本就越多。

Thank you. I'd like to thank everyone for your time today. We appreciate your interest in Chevron and everyone's participation on the call. Please stay safe and healthy. Katie, back to you.

謝謝你。我要感謝大家今天的時間。感謝您對雪佛龍的興趣以及每個人的參與。請保持安全和健康。凱蒂，回到你身邊。

Thank you. This concludes Chevron's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。雪佛龍 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。