思科 (CSCO) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2024 財年第二季財務業績電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製。如果您有任何異議，您可以斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Sami Badri, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下投資人關係主管薩米‧巴德里(Sami Badri)。先生，您可以開始了。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Second Quarter Fiscal Year '24 Conference Call. This is Sami Badri, Cisco's Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO. By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call.

歡迎大家參加思科 '24 財年第二季電話會議。我是思科投資者關係主管薩米‧巴德里 (Sami Badri)，我們的主席兼執行長 Chuck Robbins 也加入了我的行列。和我們的財務長 Scott Herren。到目前為止，您應該已經看到了我們的收益新聞稿。電話會議後，我們網站上的投資者關係部分將提供相應的帶有幻燈片的網路廣播，包括補充資訊。

Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website. Throughout this conference call, we'll be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders unless stated otherwise. All comparisons are made throughout this call will be on a year-over-year basis.

損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節資訊、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務資訊也可以在我們投資者關係網站的財務資訊部分找到。在整個電話會議中，除非另有說明，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務業績，並且我們將根據收入和地理討論產品業績，並根據產品訂單討論客戶業績。本次電話會議期間進行的所有比較都將逐年進行。

The matters we'll be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the third quarter and full year of fiscal 2024. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent report on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2024 財年第三季度和全年提供的指導。它們受到我們在提交給我們的文件中詳細討論的風險和不確定性的影響。 SEC ，特別是關於10-K 和10-Q 表格的最新報告，其中確定了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異的重要風險因素。

With respect to guidance, please feel free to see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

關於指導，請隨時查看本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和新聞稿，以了解更多詳細資訊。除非透過明確的公開揭露，否則思科不會對其本季的財務指引發表評論。

I will now turn it over to Chuck.

我現在把它交給查克。

Thanks, Sami, and thank you all for joining us today. We delivered a solid Q2 performance with revenue coming in at the high end of our guidance range. Strong operating leverage across our business drove our margins, which exceeded the high end of our expectations and allowed us to deliver better-than-anticipated earnings per share. In Q2, we once again returned a total of $2.8 billion in value through dividends and share repurchases.

謝謝薩米，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們第二季業績強勁，營收達到了我們指導範圍的高端。我們業務的強大營運槓桿推動了我們的利潤率，超出了我們預期的上限，並使我們能夠實現好於預期的每股盈餘。第二季度，我們再次透過股利和股票回購總共返還了 28 億美元的價值。

We also announced today another increase to Cisco's dividend payout rate, reaffirming our ongoing commitment to returning significant value to our shareholders through consistent capital returns. Overall, our Q2 results continue to advance our strategic business transformation around driving higher levels of software subscriptions and annualized recurring revenue or ARR, both of which showed performance gains in the quarter.

今天我們也宣布再次提高思科的股利支付率，並重申我們透過持續的資本回報為股東帶來巨大價值的持續承諾。總體而言，我們第二季的業績繼續推動我們的策略業務轉型，圍繞著推動更高水準的軟體訂閱和年化經常性收入或 ARR，這兩項都顯示了本季的業績成長。

Our pending acquisition of Splunk also further supports our transformation strategy by fueling stronger growth, expanding our portfolio of software-based solutions and generating higher levels of ARR with roughly $4 billion in additional ARR expected upon closing and will make us one of the largest software companies in the world.

我們即將完成的對Splunk 的收購也進一步支持了我們的轉型策略，推動了更強勁的成長，擴大了我們基於軟體的解決方案組合，並產生了更高水準的ARR（預計收購完成後將增加約40 億美元的ARR），並使我們成為最大的軟體公司之一在世界上。

Before turning to our performance in the quarter, I'd like to start by commenting on the demand environment. First, in terms of the macro environment, we are seeing a greater degree of caution and scrutiny of deals given the high level of uncertainty. As we're hearing this from our customers, it's leading us to be more cautious with our forecast and expectations. Second, as we discussed last quarter and subsequently saw in other technology provider results, customers have been taking time since the start of our fiscal 2024 to deploy the elevated levels of products shipped to them in recent quarters, and this is taking longer than our initial expectations. Third, we also continue to see weak demand with our telco and cable service provider customers. This industry has seen significant pressure, and they are adjusting deployment phasing, which is weighing on our business outlook.

在談論我們本季的業績之前，我想先評論一下需求環境。首先，就宏觀環境而言，由於高度不確定性，我們看到對交易更加謹慎和審查。當我們從客戶那裡聽到這個消息時，我們對自己的預測和期望更加謹慎。其次，正如我們上季度討論的以及隨後在其他技術提供商的結果中看到的那樣，自2024 財年開始以來，客戶一直在花時間來部署最近幾個季度向他們運送的高水平產品，而這比我們最初的預期時間還要長期望。第三，我們也持續看到電信和有線服務供應商客戶的需求疲軟。該行業面臨巨大壓力，他們正在調整部署階段，這對我們的業務前景構成壓力。

Given these factors, we are adjusting our expenses and investments to reflect the current environment. That said, for the product categories in which we can measure customer inventory absorption through connections to the cloud, we are seeing steady progress. However, based on conversations with customers, we still believe we are 1 to 2 quarters away from full implementation of their inventory, which, as I mentioned, is longer than we expected. We continue to track Meraki activations, which are moving slightly faster in wireless and slightly slower in switching. Using our Meraki business as a proxy for our wider enterprise networking portfolio, we expect the current implementation of shipped products to be broadly complete by the end of fiscal 2024.

鑑於這些因素，我們正在調整支出和投資以反映當前的環境。也就是說，對於我們可以透過與雲端的連接來衡量客戶庫存吸收情況的產品類別，我們看到了穩定的進展。然而，根據與客戶的對話，我們仍然相信我們距離全面實施他們的庫存還有 1 到 2 個季度的時間，正如我所提到的，這比我們預期的要長。我們繼續追蹤 Meraki 啟動情況，其在無線模式下的移動速度稍快，在切換模式下的移動速度稍慢。以我們的 Meraki 業務作為更廣泛的企業網路產品組合的代表，我們預計目前已出貨產品的實施將在 2024 財年末大致完成。

Looking at our wireless business as an example, we are encouraged by the number of orders of $1 million or more, which increased approximately 50% sequentially in Q2. This indicates that many wireless customers have finished absorbing what we've shipped to them and are preparing for larger deployments in the coming months. Our team is also partnering closely with customers to assist with this heightened focus on deployments of Cisco equipment on hand, contributing to our services revenue increase year-over-year. It's also worth noting that nonhardware-centric revenue in areas such as Security and Collaboration increased, and our Observability offerings grew double digits year-over-year. Finally, despite the near-term challenges, our win rates are stable and on a rolling 4-quarter basis, our market share remained steady in 3 of our 4 largest markets.

以我們的無線業務為例，我們對 100 萬美元或以上的訂單數量感到鼓舞，第二季度環比增長了約 50%。這表明許多無線客戶已經完成了我們向他們提供的產品的吸收，並正在為未來幾個月的更大規模部署做好準備。我們的團隊也與客戶密切合作，以協助他們更專注於現有思科設備的部署，從而促進我們的服務收入逐年成長。另外值得注意的是，安全和協作等領域的非硬體收入有所增加，我們的可觀察性產品比去年同期成長了兩位數。最後，儘管近期面臨挑戰，我們的勝率仍然穩定，並且在連續 4 個季度的基礎上，我們在 4 個最大市場中的 3 個市場中的市場份額保持穩定。

Now moving on to our performance in Q2. As I mentioned earlier, our performance in the quarter was broadly in line with or better than our Q2 expectations. Given the trust our customers place in us and the criticality of our technologies to the outcomes our customers are seeking, I am confident about the foundational strength of our portfolio and our future growth opportunities. With our innovation, we deliver and enable our customers to deploy next-generation applications in a highly secure manner.

現在繼續我們第二季的表現。正如我之前提到的，我們本季的業績基本上符合或優於我們第二季的預期。鑑於客戶對我們的信任以及我們的技術對客戶尋求的結果的重要性，我對我們產品組合的基礎實力和未來的成長機會充滿信心。憑藉我們的創新，我們提供並使客戶能夠以高度安全的方式部署下一代應用程式。

As part of this, we help facilitate their growth through our products and services so that when our customers adopt new technologies, we grow alongside them. We continue to accelerate our innovation across high-growth areas. Last week at Cisco Live EMEA, we announced new capabilities in networking, furthering our vision for the Cisco Networking Cloud. We also announced several new capabilities across our Security, Collaboration and Observability portfolios, leveraging AI throughout.

作為其中的一部分，我們透過我們的產品和服務來幫助促進他們的成長，以便當我們的客戶採用新技術時，我們與他們一起成長。我們持續在高成長領域加速創新。上週在 Cisco Live EMEA 上，我們宣布了網路方面的新功能，進一步推進了我們對思科網路雲端的願景。我們也宣布了安全、協作和可觀察性產品組合中的多項新功能，並全程利用人工智慧。

We also continue to capitalize on the multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure opportunity. This quarter, we announced the next phase in our partnership with NVIDIA to offer enterprises simplified, cloud-based and on-prem AI infrastructure. This includes both networking hardware and software to support advanced AI workloads. We are clear beneficiaries of AI adoption, and this partnership further demonstrates the central role we play in AI and the overall technology ecosystem. Our combined solution will be sold through our extensive global channel with professional services and support from key partners who are committed to helping businesses deploy their GPU clusters via Ethernet infrastructure.

我們也持續利用價值數十億美元的人工智慧基礎設施機會。本季度，我們宣布與 NVIDIA 合作進入下一階段，為企業提供簡化的、基於雲端的本地 AI 基礎架構。這包括支援高級人工智慧工作負載的網路硬體和軟體。我們是人工智慧採用的明顯受益者，這種夥伴關係進一步證明了我們在人工智慧和整個技術生態系統中發揮的核心作用。我們的組合解決方案將透過我們廣泛的全球管道進行銷售，並提供主要合作夥伴的專業服務和支持，這些合作夥伴致力於幫助企業透過乙太網路基礎設施部署 GPU 叢集。

In webscale, we continue to see momentum with 3 of the top 4 customers deploying our hyperscale Ethernet AI fabric, leveraging Cisco-validated designs for AI infrastructure. While there is tremendous opportunity ahead, we are still in the early stages of adoption of AI workloads.

在網路規模方面，我們繼續看到前 4 名客戶中的 3 名部署我們的超大規模乙太網路 AI 結構、利用經過思科驗證的 AI 基礎設施設計的勢頭。儘管未來存在巨大機遇，但我們仍處於採用人工智慧工作負載的早期階段。

In Security, we continue to execute against our product road map to deliver the industry's most comprehensive unified platform with end-to-end solutions. This quarter, we introduced Cisco Identity Intelligence, an analytics layer that pulls data from identity infrastructure and performs behavior-based assessments to help protect against identity-based attacks, which are at the forefront of cyber threats today. AI is also becoming more pervasive across the Cisco Security Cloud. For example, our new AI Assistant and Secure Access lets customers create security access policies using natural language prompts, reducing errors and speeding up policy administration by 70%. Our new security solutions like XDR and Secure Access are ramping quickly after being launched this fall with now over 230 Cisco XDR customers. Over the next 6 months, you can expect more meaningful announcements across the portfolio through our accelerated organic innovation and inorganic investments.

在安全方面，我們繼續按照我們的產品路線圖執行，以提供業界最全面的統一平台和端到端解決方案。本季度，我們推出了思科身分智能，這是一個分析層，可以從身分基礎設施中提取資料並執行基於行為的評估，以幫助防範基於身分的攻擊，這些攻擊是當今網路威脅的最前沿。人工智慧在思科安全雲中也變得越來越普遍。例如，我們新的 AI 助理和安全存取讓客戶可以使用自然語言提示建立安全存取策略，從而減少錯誤並將策略管理速度加快 70%。我們的新安全解決方案（例如 XDR 和安全存取）自今年秋季推出以來正在迅速發展，目前已擁有超過 230 個思科 XDR 客戶。在接下來的 6 個月中，透過我們加速的自然創新和無機投資，您可以期待在整個投資組合中發布更有意義的公告。

In addition, we have now extended our AI-powered ThousandEyes into Cisco Secure Access, joining past integrations with AppDynamics, Webex, Catalyst and Meraki platforms. ThousandEyes allows our customers to understand the digital experience of users, applications and things through billions of daily measurements of the Internet and public SaaS as well as thousands of enterprise customers, creating best-in-class digital experiences for users.

此外，我們現在已將人工智慧驅動的ThousandEyes擴展到思科安全訪問，加入了過去與AppDynamics、Webex、Catalyst和Meraki平台的整合。千眼讓我們的客戶透過對互聯網和公共SaaS以及數千家企業客戶的數十億次日常測量來了解用戶、應用程式和事物的數位體驗，為用戶創造一流的數位體驗。

In Observability, we introduced the Cisco Digital Experience Monitoring application, providing deep insights into the performance of browser and mobile applications and efficient resolution of session-level issues. Our continued generative AI innovations build upon our existing platform capabilities, further enabling operations teams to focus on what matters most: minimizing tools for all, improving overall performance and delivering highly secure digital experiences.

在可觀察性中，我們引入了思科數位體驗監控應用程序，可深入了解瀏覽器和行動應用程式的效能以及會話層級問題的有效解決方案。我們持續的生成式人工智慧創新建立在我們現有的平台功能之上，進一步使營運團隊能夠專注於最重要的事情：最大限度地減少所有人的工具、提高整體性能並提供高度安全的數位體驗。

Going back to the pending Splunk acquisition, the combination of Splunk's complementary capabilities with ours and AI, Security and Observability will create an end-to-end data platform to enhance our customers' digital resiliency. We are excited that together, we will bring trusted innovation leadership, an outstanding go-to-market engine and a world-class culture that will help our customers achieve their technology outcomes with innovative products and solutions.

回到即將進行的 Splunk 收購，Splunk 的互補能力與我們的人工智慧、安全性和可觀察性相結合，將創建一個端到端資料平台，以增強客戶的數位彈性。我們很高興，我們將共同帶來值得信賴的創新領導力、出色的上市引擎和世界級的文化，幫助我們的客戶透過創新產品和解決方案實現技術成果。

I would also like to provide a brief update on timing. While the closing of the acquisition of Splunk remains subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions, given the positive progress to date on the required regulatory approvals, we now expect to close the transaction late in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of calendar year 2024, which is in our fiscal third quarter.

我還想提供有關時間安排的簡要更新。雖然收購Splunk 的完成仍需獲得監管部門的批准和其他慣例成交條件，但考慮到迄今為止在所需監管部門批准方面取得的積極進展，我們現在預計將在第一季末或第二季初完成交易。2024 年，也就是我們的第三財季。

Before I turn it over to Scott, let me summarize 3 key takeaways. First, we have reset our expectations for the second half of the year given the cautious macro environment, our customers absorbing high levels of inventory and ongoing weakness in service provider. Second, you can count on us to take a disciplined approach regardless of the environment. We remain committed to operating leverage, capital allocation and expense management. Lastly, our portfolio continues to get stronger and stronger every day. While we have work in front of us and despite the current environment, we remain confident in our long-term strategy. We are relentlessly focused on our commitment to driving long-term value for our shareholders and industry-leading innovation for our customers.

在將其交給 Scott 之前，讓我總結一下 3 個要點。首先，鑑於謹慎的宏觀環境、我們的客戶吸收高庫存以及服務提供者持續疲軟，我們重新調整了對下半年的預期。其次，無論環境如何，您都可以信賴我們採取嚴格的方法。我們仍然致力於營運槓桿、資本配置和費用管理。最後，我們的投資組合每天都在變得越來越強大。儘管我們面前有工作，儘管當前的環境如此，但我們對我們的長期策略仍然充滿信心。我們堅持不懈地致力於為股東創造長期價值，並為客戶提供領先業界的創新。

I'll now turn it over to Scott to provide more detail on the quarter and our outlook.

現在我將把它交給斯科特，以提供有關本季和我們的前景的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chuck. Our Q2 results reflect solid execution again with strong margins and increasing operating leverage. For the quarter, total revenue was at the high end of our guidance range at $12.8 billion, down 6% year-over-year. Non-GAAP net income was $3.5 billion, down 3%, and non-GAAP earnings per share was above the high end of our guidance range at $0.87, down 1%.

謝謝，查克。我們第二季的業績再次反映出強勁的執行力、強勁的利潤率和不斷增加的營運槓桿。本季總營收為 128 億美元，處於我們指引範圍的高端，年減 6%。非 GAAP 淨利潤為 35 億美元，下降 3%，非 GAAP 每股收益高於我們指導範圍的上限 0.87 美元，下降 1%。

Looking at our Q2 revenue in more detail, total product revenue was $9.2 billion, down 9%, and service revenue was $3.6 billion, up 4%. Networking, our largest product category, was down 12%. We saw declines across switching, wireless and routed optical networking driven primarily by weakness in the enterprise and service provider and cloud markets.

更詳細地看我們第二季的收入，產品總收入為 92 億美元，下降 9%，服務收入為 36 億美元，成長 4%。我們最大的產品類別網路下降了 12%。我們看到交換、無線和路由光網路的下降主要是由於企業和服務供應商以及雲端市場的疲軟所致。

Security was up 3% with our Zero Trust offering growing double digits. Collaboration was up 3% driven by growth in collaboration devices and calling partially offset by a decline in meetings. Observability was up 16% driven by growth across the portfolio with continued strength in ThousandEyes network services. As Chuck mentioned, ThousandEyes helps monitor and assure digital experience everywhere, on-premise, Internet and the cloud.

隨著我們的零信任產品不斷成長兩位數，安全性提高了 3%。由於協作設備和通話數量的增長，協作量增加了 3%，但會議次數的減少部分抵消了這一增長。由於千眼網路服務的持續強勁，整個投資組合的成長推動了可觀察性成長了 16%。正如 Chuck 所提到的，ThousandEyes 有助於監控和確保無所不在的數位體驗，包括本地、網路和雲端。

We continue to make progress on our transformation to more recurring revenue-based offerings. We saw strong performance in our ARR of $24.7 billion, which increased 6%, with product ARR growth of 9%. Total software revenue was flat at $4.2 billion, with software subscription revenue up 5%. 88% of our software revenue was subscription-based.

我們在向更多經常性收入型產品的轉型方面繼續取得進展。我們的 ARR 表現強勁，達到 247 億美元，成長了 6%，其中產品 ARR 成長了 9%。軟體總收入持平於 42 億美元，其中軟體訂閱收入成長 5%。我們 88% 的軟體收入來自訂閱。

Total subscription revenue increased 6% to $6.4 billion, which now represents 50% of Cisco's total revenue, an increase of 6 percentage points over last year. RPO was $35.7 billion, up 12% year-over-year. Product and service RPO both increased 12%. In total, short-term RPO was $17.9 billion, up 6%. Q2 product orders declined 12%, a significant improvement from Q1 as customers continue to work down product shipments from prior quarters.

總訂閱收入成長了 6%，達到 64 億美元，目前佔思科總營收的 50%，比去年增加了 6 個百分點。 RPO 為 357 億美元，年增 12%。產品和服務 RPO 均成長 12%。短期 RPO 總額為 179 億美元，成長 6%。由於客戶持續減少前幾季的產品出貨量，第二季產品訂單下降了 12%，較第一季有了顯著改善。

Looking at our geographic segments year-over-year, the Americas was down 10%, EMEA down 8%, and APJC was down 27%. In our customer markets, service provider and cloud was down 40%, enterprise was down 6%, and public sector was down 5%. Backlog at the end of Q2 has now returned to normal levels.

從我們的地理區域來看，美洲地區年減了 10%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區下降了 8%，亞太地區和日本地區下降了 27%。在我們的客戶市場中，服務供應商和雲端下降了 40%，企業下降了 6%，公共部門下降了 5%。第二季末的積壓現已恢復正常。

Total non-GAAP gross margin came in at 66.7% up 280 basis points year-over-year and above the high end of our guidance range. Product gross margin was 65.2%, up 310 basis points. The improvement was driven primarily by lower freight and component costs and favorable product mix partially offset by negative impact on pricing. Service gross margin was 70.5%, up 140 basis points.

非 GAAP 總毛利率為 66.7%，較去年同期成長 280 個基點，高於我們指導範圍的上限。產品毛利率為65.2%，較去年成長310個基點。這項改善主要是由於運費和零件成本降低以及有利的產品組合部分被定價的負面影響所抵消。服務毛利率為70.5%，上升140個基點。

Non-GAAP operating margin came in at 33%, up 50 basis points and exceeding the high end of our guidance range. Strong non-GAAP gross margin and continued cost management drove the leverage.

非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 33%，上升 50 個基點，超過我們指導範圍的上限。強勁的非公認會計原則毛利率和持續的成本管理推動了槓桿率的提高。

Further, we are realigning our investments and expenses to reflect the current environment to help maximize long-term value for our shareholders. As part of our announced restructuring plan, we expect to impact approximately 5% of our global workforce with estimated pretax charges of approximately $800 million.

此外，我們正在重新調整我們的投資和支出，以反映當前的環境，以幫助股東實現長期價值最大化。作為我們宣布的重組計畫的一部分，我們預計將影響全球約 5% 的員工，預計稅前費用約為 8 億美元。

Shifting to the balance sheet. We ended Q2 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $25.7 billion. Consistent with our expectations, operating cash flow was $800 million driven in large part by the timing of federal tax payments and the higher annual payment of the TCJA transition tax.

轉向資產負債表。第二季結束時，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額為 257 億美元。與我們的預期一致，營運現金流為 8 億美元，這在很大程度上是由於聯邦稅繳納時間和 TCJA 過渡稅的年度繳納較高。

This quarter, we returned $2.8 billion to shareholders comprised of $1.6 billion for our quarterly cash dividend and $1.3 billion of share repurchases. Year-to-date, we have returned $5.7 billion in value to shareholders, and we plan to continue our share repurchases at the current quarterly level throughout fiscal 2024. Increasing shareholder returns through greater operating leverage, maintaining a higher level of annual share repurchases and growing our dividend is consistent with our capital allocation strategy.

本季度，我們向股東返還 28 億美元，其中 16 億美元用於季度現金股息，13 億美元用於股票回購。今年迄今為止，我們已向股東返還了 57 億美元的價值，我們計劃在整個 2024 財年繼續按當前季度水平進行股票回購。透過提高營運槓桿、維持較高水平的年度股票回購和增加股息符合我們的資本配置策略。

Given the confidence we have in our business today, we announced we are raising our dividend by $0.01 to $0.40 per quarter. This dividend increase demonstrates our commitment to returning a minimum of 50% of free cash flow annually to our shareholders and our confidence in the strength of our ongoing cash flows.

鑑於我們對今天的業務充滿信心，我們宣布將每季股息提高 0.01 美元至 0.40 美元。此次股利增加顯示了我們每年向股東返還至少 50% 自由現金流的承諾，以及我們對持續現金流實力的信心。

To summarize, we executed well with continued strong margins and increased operating leverage as we help our customers complete record deployments and implementations. We continue to progress our business model shift to more recurring revenue. We are strategically investing in innovation to capitalize on our growth opportunities and are committed to delivering long-term shareholder value.

總而言之，我們在幫助客戶完成創紀錄的部署和實施的過程中表現出色，利潤率持續強勁，營運槓桿不斷提高。我們持續推進業務模式轉向更多經常性收入的轉變。我們對創新進行策略性投資，以利用我們的成長機會，並致力於提供長期股東價值。

With regard to our proposed acquisition of Splunk, we continue to work through regulatory approvals and closing conditions and as Chuck mentioned, we're optimistic that it will close ahead of what we had originally anticipated. We have not included any impact from the Splunk acquisition in our forward-looking guidance.

關於我們提議的 Splunk 收購，我們將繼續努力爭取監管部門的批准和完成條件，正如 Chuck 所提到的，我們樂觀地認為它將提前完成我們最初的預期。我們並未將 Splunk 收購帶來的任何影響納入我們的前瞻性指引中。

Turning to our guidance. As previously mentioned, we have reset our expectations for the second half of the year to account for the caution around macro uncertainty, the continued absorption by our customers of record levels of product shipments they received from us and the weakness of our service provider market. For Q3, our guidance is as follows. We expect revenue to be in the range of $12.1 billion to $12.3 billion. We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 66% to 67%. Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 33.5% to 34.5%. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $0.84 to $0.86.

轉向我們的指導。如前所述，我們重新調整了對下半年的預期，以考慮到對宏觀不確定性的謹慎態度、客戶對我們創紀錄水平的產品出貨量的持續吸收以及我們服務提供者市場的疲軟。對於第三季度，我們的指導如下。我們預計營收將在 121 億美元至 123 億美元之間。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將在 66% 至 67% 之間。非 GAAP 營運利潤率預計在 33.5% 至 34.5% 之間。非 GAAP 每股盈餘預計為 0.84 美元至 0.86 美元。

For fiscal year '24, our guidance is as follows. We expect revenue to be in the range of $51.5 billion to $52.5 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share guidance is expected to range from $3.68 to $3.74. In both our Q3 and full year guidance, we're assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 19%. Sami, let's now move into the Q&A.

對於 24 財年，我們的指導如下。我們預計營收將在 515 億美元至 525 億美元之間。非 GAAP 每股盈餘指引預計為 3.68 美元至 3.74 美元。在我們的第三季和全年指引中，我們假設非 GAAP 有效稅率為 19%。薩米，我們現在進入問答環節。

Thank you, Scott. (Operator Instructions) Operator, can we move to the first analyst in the queue?

謝謝你，斯科特。 （操作員指示）操作員，我們可以移至佇列中的第一位分析師嗎？

Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

阿米特·達裡亞納尼 (Amit Daryanani) 與 Evercore。

I'll ask both my questions upfront. Chuck, when I think about the lower revenue guide for the full year by about 500 basis points versus 90 days ago, can you just touch on how much of that do you think is the digestion getting extended versus the macro versus the telco weakness? And then how do you sort of think about getting back to a positive revenue cadence organically?

我會提前問我的兩個問題。 Chuck，當我想到全年營收指引較 90 天前下降約 500 個基點時，您能否談談您認為相對於宏觀經濟和電信疲軟而言，消化時間延長了多少？那麼您如何看待有機地恢復積極的收入節奏？

And then as a follow-up, I'd love to just understand this, in media announcement you folks had, there's a bit of a perception that it's more about servers, less about networking. I would love for you to just flesh that out, what that means to Cisco.

作為後續行動，我很想了解這一點，在你們的媒體公告中，有一種看法認為它更多地與伺服器有關，而不是與網路有關。我希望您能夠具體說明這對思科意味著什麼。

Amit, thank you very much. So obviously, with the lower guide, we talked about the feeling that there's some macro uncertainty. We talked to our teams in preparation for this, and they obviously submitted their forecast. And what we really saw was what they previously told us 90 days ago relative to the second half versus what they told us a couple of weeks ago had changed materially, which means customers are pushing things out and putting a little more scrutiny on them. So that's the difference that we've seen.

阿米特，非常感謝你。顯然，透過較低的指導，我們談到了存在一些宏觀不確定性的感覺。我們與我們的團隊進行了交談，為此做準備，他們顯然提交了他們的預測。我們真正看到的是，他們在90 天前告訴我們的內容與下半年相比，他們在幾週前告訴我們的內容髮生了重大變化，這意味著客戶正在推出一些東西，並對它們進行更多的審查。這就是我們所看到的差異。

As far as trying to break down what percentage comes from each of those -- the 3, including the digestion issue as well as the telco and SP piece, I think it's pretty difficult to do, honestly. However, I will say that we think that the consumption of the elevated inventory levels should be -- we should be through that by the end of our fiscal year. We think that the SP telcos -- the SP telco and cable side of it, we're hopeful that in '25, they will begin investing again. We originally had anticipated that they would begin to invest in the second half of this year, and we no longer believe that to be true.

至於試圖分解其中每一個的百分比——這三個部分，包括消化問題以及電信和 SP 部分，老實說，我認為這很難做到。然而，我要說的是，我們認為高庫存水準的消耗應該在我們的財政年度結束之前完成。我們認為 SP 電信公司——SP 電信公司和有線電視方面，我們希望在 25 年，他們將再次開始投資。我們原本預計他們會在今年下半年開始投資，但現在我們不再相信這是真的。

And I think that -- so I think the consumption issue and the SP thing -- or the consumption issue is temporary through the end of the year. The macro thing is one that we're going to have to wait and see and the SP telco probably similarly. And all of these things led us obviously to reset the second half of the year.

我認為——所以我認為消費問題和 SP 的事情——或者消費問題在今年年底都是暫時的。宏觀方面我們必須拭目以待，SP 電信公司可能也類似。所有這些事情顯然導致我們重新設定了下半年。

On the NVIDIA partnership, it is definitely Ethernet. I was in the meeting when we first talked about this with Jensen, and he agreed that we would include our Ethernet technology with their GPUs and creating the stack. There will also be servers as well, and there'll be multiple versions of this over time. So -- but it will include our Ethernet technology when they're connecting multiple clusters.

談到 NVIDIA 的合作關係，肯定是乙太網路。當我們第一次與 Jensen 討論這個問題時，我正在參加會議，他同意我們將我們的乙太網路技術與他們的 GPU 結合並創建堆疊。還會有伺服器，並且隨著時間的推移會有多個版本。所以，當它們連接多個叢集時，它將包括我們的乙太網路技術。

Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的梅塔·馬歇爾。

Maybe you've mentioned service provider, but I guess -- just getting a sense of whether you're seeing more weakness on data center or edge or if it comes to kind of the 5 investment priorities that you had noted that enterprises had a couple of quarters ago. Are any one of those areas still getting prioritized significantly versus not getting prioritized significantly? And then just maybe as a second question, how are you seeing enterprises think about AI and think about where the budgets for AI are coming from? Just any commentary would be helpful there.

也許您提到過服務供應商，但我想 - 只是了解您是否在資料中心或邊緣方面看到了更多弱點，或者是否涉及您注意到企業有幾個的 5 個投資優先事項幾個季度前。這些領域中是否有任何一個領域仍然被顯著優先考慮而不是顯著優先考慮？然後也許是第二個問題，您如何看待企業如何看待人工智慧以及人工智慧的預算來自哪裡？任何評論都會有幫助。

Yes. Thanks, Meta. So I would say that what we do see customers investing in is clearly cybersecurity. We see Observability as you saw the 16% growth rate. We even saw Collaboration positive this quarter, which was a good sign. They are at various phases of still dealing with this hybrid work situation. We had a very strong quarter with our devices, our video device businesses.

是的。謝謝，梅塔。所以我想說，我們確實看到客戶投資的顯然是網路安全。我們看到可觀察性就像您看到 16% 的成長率一樣。本季我們甚至看到了積極的合作，這是一個好兆頭。他們仍處於處理這種混合工作情況的不同階段。我們的設備、視訊設備業務在本季表現非常強勁。

We see customers investing in their customer experience through technologies like contact center. And so we see a lot of that. We see customers continuing to invest in their application rearchitecture, which leads to both Observability opportunities as well as the re-architecture of their networks to deal with the traffic flows that we've been talking about for a couple of years. I think the real issue right now is that we ship so much networking in our core business that, that's where the challenge is, that they're just trying to get all that implemented right now.

我們看到客戶透過聯絡中心等技術投資於客戶體驗。我們看到了很多這樣的情況。我們看到客戶繼續投資於他們的應用程式重新架構，這帶來了可觀察性機會以及他們的網路重新架構，以處理我們已經討論了幾年的流量。我認為現在真正的問題是，我們在核心業務中提供瞭如此多的網絡，這就是挑戰所在，他們只是試圖立即實施所有這些網絡。

As it relates to the enterprise and how they're thinking about AI, what I would tell you is that over the last 90 days, we began to see the pipeline for AI use cases in the enterprise began to emerge. And there's heavy work going on in financial services. I would say it's early in what they're trying to think through, but we are seeing opportunities arise. And I think that there have been some comments, not enough for me to translate this to a massive trend, but there were some comments from some of our field teams that they see customers holding budget back just to be ready to expend it on AI once they get their strategy fully baked. So that's about what I could tell you at this point.

由於它與企業以及他們如何看待人工智慧有關，我要告訴你的是，在過去 90 天裡，我們開始看到企業中人工智慧用例的管道開始出現。金融服務業正在進行繁重的工作。我想說，他們的思考還處於早期階段，但我們正在看到機會的出現。我認為已經有一些評論，不足以讓我將其轉化為一個巨大的趨勢，但我們的一些現場團隊有一些評論，他們看到客戶保留預算只是為了準備一次將其花費在人工智能上他們的策略已經完全成熟。這就是我現在可以告訴你的。

David Vogt with UBS.

瑞銀集團的大衛‧沃格特。

So maybe I just want to step back for a second, Chuck, and maybe for Scott also. If I look at your guide for this year, I mean, we're basically back to fiscal '19 revenue levels. So I'm just trying to think about how your longer-term model works in the context of that 5% to 7% guide that you laid out at the investor briefing a number of years ago as sort of customers digest product.

所以也許我只是想退後一步，查克，也許也為斯科特退後一步。如果我看一下你們今年的指南，我的意思是，我們基本上回到了 19 財年的收入水準。因此，我只是想考慮一下您的長期模型如何在幾年前的投資者簡報中作為客戶消化產品而製定的 5% 至 7% 指南的背景下運作。

Obviously, it would suggest that maybe there's some more share loss going on in the core networking portfolio, given some of the other parts of the business has grown. So I just want to kind of try to get a sense of how you're thinking about the portfolio today, given we're kind of back to fiscal '19. And then from a profitability standpoint, obviously, you've done a tremendous job, and I would imagine the cost cutting goes along those lines to keep margins higher. But is there an opportunity to use margin and maybe price going forward to take back some of the share if there's a disruption in the market by a potential strategic transaction in the marketplace today?

顯然，鑑於該業務的其他部分已經成長，這表明核心網路產品組合中可能會出現更多份額損失。因此，鑑於我們又回到了 19 財年，我只是想嘗試了解您今天對投資組合的看法。然後，從獲利能力的角度來看，顯然，你們已經做了巨大的工作，我想削減成本也會遵循這些原則，以保持更高的利潤率。但是，如果當今市場上潛在的策略交易對市場造成乾擾，是否有機會利用保證金或未來的價格來收回部分份額？

Yes. David, I'll start and then Chuck, you can chime in on share. The way to think about the 5% to 7%, if you go back to when we gave that metric, you remember, it was in 2021, actually pre all of the supply chain volatility that we've seen. And since then, of course, we've seen the supply chain set in, which caused a spike in product orders and then a subsequent big building up of our backlog. As we cleared the backlog, we saw a spike in revenue. And so it's been difficult to look at year-on-year compares as all those dynamics were going on.

是的。大衛，我先開始，然後查克，你可以插話分享。思考 5% 到 7% 的方式，如果你回到我們給出這個指標的時候，你會記得，那是在 2021 年，實際上是在我們看到的所有供應鏈波動之前。當然，從那時起，我們就看到了供應鏈的建立，這導致產品訂單激增，隨後我們的積壓訂單大量增加。當我們清理積壓的訂單時，我們看到收入激增。因此，隨著所有這些動態的發生，很難進行同比比較。

What we're seeing now is as we've cleared the backlog, and we cleared it very quickly, given the strength of our supply chain team, that bottleneck has just moved downstream. So I don't think you can look at this year's revenue and try to somehow compare it to historical because of all the moving parts underneath the covers. What underpinned that 5% to 7% when we gave it to you was that's the aggregated growth of the TAM of the markets that we play in, right? And so at this point, we still see that as the longer term where we're headed.

我們現在看到的是，我們已經清除了積壓的訂單，而且我們很快就清除了，考慮到我們供應鏈團隊的實力，瓶頸剛剛轉移到了下游。因此，我認為您不能查看今年的收入並嘗試以某種方式將其與歷史記錄進行比較，因為所有的變化都在幕後。當我們向您提供 5% 到 7% 的數據時，支撐我們的因素是我們所在市場 TAM 的整體成長，對嗎？因此，在這一點上，我們仍然認為這是我們的長期發展方向。

I think looking at year-on-year growth rates, I don't think you're going to see those growth rates begin to normalize until we work through the inventory that's in the field right now, which is one of the biggest headwinds we've got, right? And then we can get back to regular ordering and then you need to lap that, right? You need to go 4 quarters out to be able to compare it to a more normalized point. So I think that's the way you need to think about that longer term. But there's no change at this point. We'll update the longer-term model after we finish the acquisition of Splunk and can give you better insight into what we look like as a combined company.

我認為，看看同比增長率，我認為在我們解決目前現場的庫存之前，你不會看到這些增長率開始正常化，這是我們面臨的最大阻力之一。有吧？然後我們可以回到常規訂購狀態，然後你需要進行一圈，對吧？您需要花 4 個季度才能將其與更標準化的點進行比較。所以我認為這就是你需要考慮更長期的方式。但目前沒有任何變化。完成對 Splunk 的收購後，我們將更新長期模型，以便您更好地了解我們合併後的公司是什麼樣子。

Yes. David, on the share loss, I think if you look at the -- just look at the last published reports that came out after Q...

是的。大衛，關於股票損失，我想如果你看一下——只要看一下 Q 後發布的最新報告...

3, calendar.

3、日曆。

Calendar Q3, in our 4 largest markets -- so if you take campus switching, you take wireless and you take SP routing, we actually gained share. So I don't know where the share loss thesis is coming from. When you look at data center switching, you will see it show up as a share loss. But to be -- we have to understand that one of our major competitors there reports their webscale sales into data center switching, and we report our webscale sales into SP routing. So those turn into sort of apples and oranges categories. But the others, based on the last reports that were put out, we actually have gained share if you look at a rolling 4 quarter even over the last 3 years.

日曆第三季度，在我們的 4 個最大市場中，如果採用園區交換、無線和 SP 路由，我們實際上獲得了份額。所以我不知道份額損失的論點從何而來。當您查看資料中心切換時，您會發現它顯示為份額損失。但要做到這一點，我們必須了解我們的主要競爭對手之一將其網路規模銷售報告到資料中心交換中，而我們將我們的網路規模銷售報告到 SP 路由中。所以這些就變成了蘋果和橘子的類別。但其他公司，根據最近發布的報告，如果你看看過去 3 年的滾動第 4 個季度，我們實際上已經獲得了份額。

Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

西蒙·利奧波德和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

I've got an easy one and a little bit harder one. I'll start with the easy one and then ask the other. It just looks like your order trajectory is getting somewhat better. So the orders this quarter, down 12%, not too bad. And I know you don't forecast orders, but maybe if you can talk about when you expect orders could turn positive again, given the comparison and the trend.

我有一個簡單的和稍微難一點的。我會先從簡單的開始，然後再問另一個。看起來您的訂單軌跡正在變得更好。所以本季的訂單下降 12%，還不錯。我知道您不會預測訂單，但考慮到比較和趨勢，也許您可以談談您預計訂單何時會再次轉正。

The other question I wanted to see if you could discuss how you envision the AI clusters in terms of will the webscale operators choose multiple vendors in a single cluster or will they designate maybe different data centers to different suppliers? Or will they mix and match? How do you see the split playing out, particularly in the hyperscale opportunity? And I really mean this more longer term, '25, '26, not currently when we're dominated by InfiniBand, but when Ethernet starts taking more share.

我想知道的另一個問題是，您是否可以討論一下您對人工智慧叢集的設想：網路規模營運商會在單一叢集中選擇多個供應商，還是會為不同的供應商指定不同的資料中心？或者他們會混合搭配嗎？您如何看待這種分裂，特別是在超大規模機會方面？我的意思是更長期的，'25，'26，不是目前我們由 InfiniBand 主導的時候，而是當乙太網路開始佔據更多份額的時候。

Yes. Thanks, Simon. So on the order trajectory, I think what -- we clearly don't guide bookings. But what I would tell you is that even as our teams modified their second half outlook, the second half will still be more favorable than the first half. So your assessment of sort of the trajectory, I think, is valid, and I'll leave it at that.

是的。謝謝，西蒙。因此，在訂單軌跡上，我認為我們顯然不指導預訂。但我要告訴你的是，即使我們的球隊修改了下半場的前景，下半場仍然會比上半場更有利。因此，我認為您對某種軌蹟的評估是有效的，我將就此保留。

On the AI clusters, I think it's a good question because what you'll hear is us and competitors talking about a number of webscale players that are using our technology underneath GPUs, our Ethernet technology underneath GPUs. And so I think it's important to remember they always tend to have a dual vendor strategy. They always want 2 sources. And so we're both actually -- the 2 of us are actually playing in this space today. And I'd say today, they're completely homogenous clusters. And I think it's too early to tell whether there will be some benefit over time for them to mix those. My sense is, unless there's something that changes significantly or there's some sort of technology reason for GPUs to be mixed, which I can't speak to at this point, I don't think the underlying network will be mixed. I just don't think there's any benefit for them to do that.

關於人工智慧集群，我認為這是一個很好的問題，因為你會聽到我們和競爭對手談論許多網路規模的參與者，他們在GPU 下使用我們的技術，在GPU 下使用我們的乙太網路技術。因此，我認為重要的是要記住他們總是傾向於採用雙供應商策略。他們總是想要兩個來源。所以我們實際上——我們兩個人今天實際上都在這個空間裡玩耍。今天我想說，它們是完全同質的集群。我認為現在判斷混合這些技術是否會隨著時間的推移帶來一些好處還為時過早。我的感覺是，除非有什麼重大變化，或者有某種技術原因需要混合 GPU（目前我還不能說），否則我認為底層網路不會混合。我只是認為他們這樣做沒有任何好處。

Tal Liani with Bank of America.

美國銀行的塔爾·利亞尼。

I have 2 questions. The first one is Security. The market is great. And we met 2 years ago and 3 years ago when you spoke about new strategy and going to market, but it's still only growing 3%. What is happening there? And what can you do to fix Security and benefit from this market growth? And then maybe I'll ask my follow-up.

我有 2 個問題。第一個是安全。市場很大。我們在兩年前和三年前見過面，當時你們談到了新策略和進​​入市場，但它仍然只成長了 3%。那裡發生了什麼事？您可以採取哪些措施來解決安全問題並從市場成長中受益？然後也許我會問我的後續行動。

Okay. Thanks, Tal. So I think over the last few quarters, I've been pretty consistent that we thought the second half of this fiscal year, we would start to see an acceleration of Security, and I can give you some highlights where we are seeing some of that -- some green shoots early. Some of the new innovation like XDR and Secure Access, Multicloud Defense suites are -- we're seeing good pipeline build with those technologies.

好的。謝謝，塔爾。因此，我認為在過去的幾個季度中，我一直非常一致地認為，我們認為本財年下半年，我們將開始看到安全性的加速，我可以向您提供一些重點，我們正在看到其中的一些內容——一些早期的萌芽。一些新的創新，如 XDR 和安全存取、多雲防禦套件，我們看到使用這些技術建立了良好的管道。

XDR, we now -- we announced that in April of last year, we shipped it in August, and we have 230 customers, 230-plus customers on the platform today. And the important thing to remember is that it's a big platform play. And we actually typically see that as a 6- to 9-month sales cycle. So to have 230 customers already, I think, is a statement on the value that our customers are seeing. That's going to be a real important integration point with Splunk, by the way. So that we see. We see -- we feel good about the pipeline.

XDR，我們現在—我們宣布，去年 4 月，我們在 8 月發貨，我們有 230 個客戶，今天平台上有 230 多個客戶。需要記住的重要一點是，這是一個大型平台遊戲。實際上，我們通常將其視為 6 至 9 個月的銷售週期。因此，我認為已經擁有 230 名客戶，這說明了我們的客戶所看到的價值。順便說一句，這將是與 Splunk 的一個非常重要的整合點。以便我們看見。我們看到——我們對管道感覺良好。

From a demand perspective, just to give you some insight, the Americas, the demand was almost double digits this past quarter, which is the highest we've seen in a while. So I think we're seeing a lot of good indicators. And if you just watch over the next 6 to 9 months, you're going to see more and more innovation that comes out. And I think you'll begin to believe and see the results around that same time frame.

從需求角度來看，只是為了讓您了解一下，美洲上個季度的需求幾乎達到兩位數，這是我們一段時間以來所看到的最高水平。所以我認為我們看到了很多好的指標。如果你只專注在接下來的 6 到 9 個月，你會看到越來越多的創新出現。我認為您會在同一時間範圍內開始相信並看到結果。

Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的薩米克‧查特吉 (Samik Chatterjee)。

Chuck, I'm going to, for my first question, ask you to go back to sort of the drivers of demand that you're seeing here. We walked away from the call last time sensing a sense of optimism about a sharp rebound when you see the inventory digestion complete. But I guess what I'm hearing from you today is even as that inventory digestion ends in fiscal '24, you're seeing a bit more of a macro impact on your customer demand. And are your expectations still sort of intact in terms of thinking about a more sharp rebound as you go into fiscal '25, if you can share what you're seeing from customers there?

查克，對於我的第一個問題，我想請您回顧一下您在這裡看到的需求驅動因素。上次電話會議結束後，當你看到庫存消化完成時，我們感受到了對大幅反彈的樂觀情緒。但我想我今天從您那裡聽到的是，即使庫存消化在 24 財年結束，您也會看到對客戶需求的宏觀影響更大。如果您能分享您從那裡的客戶那裡看到的情況，您在進入 25 財年時考慮更大幅反彈的預期是否仍然完好無損？

And for my follow-up, the NVIDIA partnership, how should we think about the impact of that on your AI order target of $1 billion? Or is it really most of that partnership that realizes beyond that sort of target window, target time frame?

對於我的後續內容，即 NVIDIA 合作夥伴關係，我們應該如何考慮這對你們 10 億美元的 AI 訂單目標的影響？或者說，大部分的合作關係真的是在目標窗口、目標時間框架之外實現嗎？

Thanks. I would say on the -- the thing that's changed from last quarter is that we do just see a little more caution with our customers. I don't want to over-rotate and say that it's a massive shift, but we definitely saw more caution. We talked with our sales leaders ahead of the call, and they indicate -- we asked them point-blank, was there more caution or the same caution from the prior quarter? And we heard more, a little bit more. And then we saw the pushout of the forecast. So that just tells us that there is a little bit more in the system. So therefore, I think we need a couple of quarters to see it play out before we can declare what's going to happen in fiscal '25.

謝謝。我想說的是，與上季相比，我們確實看到了對客戶更加謹慎的態度。我不想過度輪換並說這是一個巨大的轉變，但我們確實看到了更多的謹慎。我們在電話會議前與銷售主管進行了交談，他們表示——我們直截了當地問他們，與上一季相比，是否更加謹慎或同樣謹慎？我們聽到了更多，更多一點。然後我們看到了預測的推出。這只是告訴我們系統還有更多內容。因此，我認為我們需要幾個季度的時間才能看到結果，然後才能宣布 25 財年將發生什麼。

On the NVIDIA discussion, a couple of comments. We talked about the $1 billion of orders, which I know someone is going to ask me about at some point. And what I would say is that in the last 90 days, our pipeline of AI opportunities continue to grow. The pipeline is now almost 3x that particular number that we gave last time, which were more orders that we see in '25. The total pipeline is now about 3x that, roughly 3x that. And I would say that virtually none of that is anything associated with the NVIDIA partnership yet. It's all independent of that.

關於 NVIDIA 的討論，有幾點評論。我們討論了 10 億美元的訂單，我知道有人會在某個時候問我這個問題。我想說的是，在過去 90 天裡，我們的人工智慧機會管道持續成長。現在的管道數量幾乎是我們上次給出的具體數字的 3 倍，這是我們在 25 年看到的更多訂單。現在總管道大約是原來的 3 倍，大約是原來的 3 倍。我想說的是，幾乎所有這些都與 NVIDIA 合作夥伴關係無關。這一切都是獨立的。

Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.

Ben Reitzes 的 Melius Research。

Chuck, Scott, I wanted to ask about the HPE-Juniper deal. Are you seeing any uncertainty in the market near term? And how do you think that helps you long term? And if you -- Chuck, if you don't mind, just with regard to that last AI comment, your -- one of your competitors, obviously, is expecting quite a big pick up next year, next calendar year. Do you feel like that AI $3 billion in pipeline or so kicks in next year, next calendar year? Or what's your timing on that?

Chuck、Scott，我想詢問 HPE 與瞻博網路交易的情況。您認為近期市場有任何不確定性嗎？您認為這對您的長期發展有何幫助？如果你——查克，如果你不介意，就最後的人工智慧評論而言，你的——你的競爭對手之一顯然預計明年、下一個日曆年會有相當大的增長。您是否認為 30 億美元左右的 AI 專案將在明年、明年投入使用？或是你的時間安排是什麼？

Thanks, Ben. So I would say on the HPE-Juniper deal, the one area where they have meaningful overlap is in wireless, and I don't know if there's any connection to the fact that we had a 50% increase in $1 million-plus wireless deals sequentially. So it's hard to say. But I mean there is a lot of noise in the system or in the industry about what they do there, but I can't say specifically that any customers have talked to me about it, to be honest. So I think we're -- I think it's a little early for them to -- for the customers to be expressing that concern. They may be asking them directly, but they're not talking to us.

謝謝，本。因此，我想說，在HPE 與瞻博網路的交易中，他們有意義的重疊領域是無線領域，我不知道這與我們在100 萬美元以上的無線交易中增加了50% 的事實是否有任何聯繫。依次。所以很難說。但我的意思是，在系統或行業中，關於他們在那裡所做的事情有很多噪音，但說實話，我不能具體說有任何客戶與我談論過這件事。所以我認為我們——我認為對他們來說有點早——讓客戶表達這種擔憂。他們可能會直接詢問他們，但他們不會與我們交談。

On the timing, yes, I think we said fiscal '25, which starts in August of this year. And I think you probably should assume most of that is probably in the second half, I would guess, but we'll see how things play out. I think customers are going to move as fast as they possibly can, but we're still in the early strategy and planning stages right now on most of it. The pipeline stuff are well-defined use cases that are already in place with certain customers, and we're actually just working through the opportunities.

關於時間安排，是的，我想我們說過從今年 8 月開始的 25 財年。我想你可能應該假設大部分可能發生在下半場，我猜，但我們會看看事情如何發展。我認為客戶將盡可能快地採取行動，但我們目前大部分仍處於早期策略和規劃階段。管道內容是明確定義的用例，某些客戶已經就位，而我們實際上只是在利用這些機會。

Yes. But Ben, our expectation is the majority of that $1 billion in orders will turn into revenue in our fiscal '25, just to be clear.

是的。但 Ben，需要明確的是，我們的預期是 10 億美元訂單中的大部分將在 25 財年轉化為營收。

Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬特·尼克南。

I'll keep it to one and one follow-up. So main question, just around inventory digestion. Is that dynamic primarily affecting enterprise and commercial customers? And can you talk a little bit about the visibility you've got towards this actually resolving itself by fiscal year-end? And then a follow-up just on gross margins. You were fairly stable sequentially, and I think the guide implies more of the same. So I'm just wondering, are we now largely past a lot of the supply chain dynamics or headwinds? Or has anything changed on the supply chain front?

我會一一跟進。主要問題是圍繞庫存消化。這種動態主要影響企業和商業客戶嗎？您能談談您在財政年度結束前真正解決這個問題的可見度嗎？然後是毛利率的後續行動。你的順序相當穩定，我認為指南暗示了更多相同的內容。所以我只是想知道，我們現在是否基本上已經克服了許多供應鏈動態或逆風？或者供應鏈方面有變化嗎？

Yes. So I'll take the first, and then Scott, you can take the second. On the inventory digestion issue, I think it's -- I would say it's largely an enterprise and a service provider issue. And particularly the cloud providers, we think they've got probably in excess of 20-plus weeks of inventory that they're working through right now as they built up when the lead times were so long.

是的。所以我會選擇第一個，然後斯科特，你可以選擇第二個。關於庫存消化問題，我認為這很大程度上是企業和服務提供者的問題。尤其是雲端供應商，我們認為他們現在正在處理的庫存可能超過 20 週以上，因為他們是在交貨時間如此長的情況下累積起來的。

We have a lot of our enterprise products that are tethered to the cloud for management perspectives. And so we see the lag between when we ship it to the customer and when they connected. I gave the Meraki example in my prepared remarks. And so we do have visibility, and we can actually see on some aspects of the portfolio how the time frame between shipments and connectivity is shrinking, and it's not shrinking as fast as we thought it would, which leads us to believe this is going to extend through the end of '24. So that's where we are. Scott, gross margins?

我們有許多企業產品都與雲端相連以實現管理視角。因此，我們看到我們將其運送給客戶和他們連接之間存在延遲。我在準備好的發言中舉了 Meraki 的例子。因此，我們確實具有可見性，並且我們實際上可以在產品組合的某些方面看到發貨和連接之間的時間框架如何縮短，並且縮短的速度沒有我們想像的那麼快，這使我們相信這將延續到24年底。這就是我們現在的情況。史考特，毛利率？

Yes. What you saw in the quarter is, of course, gross margins continue to show a year-on-year improving trend, roughly flat, as you said, sequentially. There's a couple of dynamics. But to your question on where does this settle in, I think it settles in, in the range we're in right now, in the 66% to 67% range through the end of the year. There's both the things that are happening from a freight and delivery standpoint, freight costs with what's happening in the Red Sea have gone up slightly, and we continue to see a little bit of component pressure, although in the commodity sections, we're seeing some benefit there.

是的。當然，您在本季看到的是，毛利率繼續呈現同比改善趨勢，正如您所說，與上一季大致持平。有一些動態。但對於你關於這個問題會在哪裡解決的問題，我認為它會在我們現在所處的範圍內解決，到今年年底會在 66% 到 67% 的範圍內解決。從貨運和交貨的角度來看，兩件事都在發生，紅海發生的貨運成本略有上升，我們繼續看到一點組件壓力，儘管在商品部分，我們看到那裡有一些好處。

The scale of the services ramp-up, as you -- obviously, services revenue trails the product revenue. We had those 3 really strong quarters of product revenue growth. We're seeing the tail of that now in our services revenue growth. And since a lot of the cost underneath our services are fixed, you get better leverage when that happens. So I think when you add all those together, we should settle in, in the 66% to 67% range. And the majority of, if not all of the supply chain constraints that we felt are behind us at this point.

服務規模不斷擴大，顯然，服務收入落後於產品收入。我們的產品收入成長在這三個季度非常強勁。我們現在在服務收入成長中看到了這一點。由於我們服務的許多成本都是固定的，因此當這種情況發生時，您可以獲得更好的槓桿作用。所以我認為當你把所有這些加在一起時，我們應該穩定在 66% 到 67% 的範圍內。目前，我們認為的大部分（如果不是全部）供應鏈限制都已成為過去。

Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.

高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的麥可吳 (Michael Ng)。

I just have 2. First, just on the revenue guidance. I think based on the midpoint of it, the implied fiscal 4Q revenue guidance only implies about plus 1% quarter-on-quarter. Given that we're back to a normal backlog, what's preventing that from going back to a more normal level of seasonality? And then as a follow-up to Amit's question earlier on the NVIDIA AI deal, I just wanted to clarify. I understand that it's Ethernet, but will it be both NVIDIA's Spectrum-X as well as Cisco's Ethernet? And how will that be sold together, if that's the correct assumption?

我只有兩個。首先，關於收入指導。我認為，基於其中點，隱含的第四季度財政收入指引僅意味著季度環比增長約 1%。鑑於我們已經恢復到正常的積壓狀態，那麼是什麼阻礙了它恢復到更正常的季節性水平？然後，作為 Amit 早些時候就 NVIDIA AI 交易提出的問題的後續行動，我只是想澄清一下。我知道它是以太網，但它既是 NVIDIA 的 Spectrum-X 又是思科的乙太網路嗎？如果這是正確的假設，那麼如何將它們一起出售？

Michael, on the midpoint of the revenue guide, the math would lead you to what you just said. I think no one ever wants to have to reset guidance, much less have to do it twice. We -- as Chuck just said, as we look at all the various factors coming in from the field, we see caution. And I think you should expect that there's caution in our guide at this point.

邁克爾，在收入指南的中間，數學會引導你得出剛才所說的話。我認為沒有人願意重新設定指導方針，更不用說必須這樣做兩次了。正如查克剛才所說，當我們審視來自現場的所有各種因素時，我們看到了謹慎的態度。我認為您應該預料到我們的指南中此時會有警告。

On the NVIDIA front, I think, look, one of the key benefits that they see is leveraging our enterprise go-to market and our global ecosystem and partner community. And therefore, when we are -- when these solutions are flowing through our channels and our sales teams and our partners, it will be Cisco Ethernet.

在 NVIDIA 方面，我認為他們看到的主要優勢之一是利用我們的企業進入市場以及我們的全球生態系統和合作夥伴社群。因此，當我們 - 當這些解決方案流經我們的管道、我們的銷售團隊和我們的合作夥伴時，它將是思科以太網。

George Notter with Jefferies.

喬治諾特和傑弗里斯。

I guess I'm just curious about -- are there any mechanisms or activities you guys are using to help accelerate the clearance of inventory from the channel? Any price discounting, any rebating, stock rotation? How are you taking an active approach here?

我想我只是好奇——你們是否正在使用任何機製或活動來幫助加速渠道庫存的清理？有價格折扣、回扣、庫存輪換嗎？您如何在這裡採取積極的態度？

I'll comment -- I'll make one quick comment. I think I said this in my prepared remarks as well. We've deployed a lot of transaction services for some of our larger customers just to help them do that. And I know that our sales teams were talking this week, Scott, maybe you remember or you have some more detail on looking at some partner incentives to help?

我會發表評論——我會做一個簡短的評論。我想我在準備好的發言中也說過這一點。我們為一些較大的客戶部署了許多交易服務，只是為了幫助他們做到這一點。我知道我們的銷售團隊本周正在討論，斯科特，也許你還記得，或者你有更多關於尋找一些合作夥伴激勵措施來提供幫助的細節？

Yes. We absolutely are working with the field on that. In a lot of cases, it boils down to a lack of the skilled resources required at both -- sometimes at our partner level, sometimes at the customer level to get that done. There's only so much you can do to accelerate it. We have put in place incentives to make that accelerate. To your other point on cancellations or stock rotation, we're seeing those continuing to be well below where they were prepandemic. So we're not seeing any of that -- any pressure on that front.

是的。我們絕對正在與該領域合作。在許多情況下，這可以歸結為缺乏完成這項任務所需的熟練資源——有時是我們的合作夥伴層面，有時是客戶層面。為了加速它，你能做的只有這麼多。我們已經制定了激勵措施來加速這一進程。至於您關於取消或庫存輪換的另一點，我們看到這些數量繼續遠低於大流行前的水平。所以我們沒有看到任何這方面的壓力。

Woo Jin Ho with Bloomberg Intelligence.

彭博資訊 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 的宇鎮浩 (Woo Jin Ho)。

Given that most of the weakness is going to be on the networking side, could you just talk a little bit more about the future software subscription renewal rates? You did a good job this quarter with software subscriptions going up 5%, but given that networking is poised to be down, I'm curious where that's heading going forward.

鑑於大部分弱點將出現在網路方面，您能否多談談未來的軟體訂閱續訂率？本季你們做得很好，軟體訂閱量成長了 5%，但考慮到網路業務可能會下降，我很好奇未來的發展方向。

Yes. I think -- thanks for the question, Woo Jin. I think the way to think about it is we put a -- as you can imagine, when you built up the level of annualized recurring revenue that we have, we've put a huge amount of focus on both customer success and driving adoption and then turning that adoption into renewals. We've invested fairly heavily in that space over the last couple of years, and we're seeing renewal rates respond accordingly.

是的。我想——謝謝你的提問，宇進。我認為思考這個問題的方法是，正如你可以想像的那樣，當你建立我們擁有的年化經常性收入水平時，我們將大量的注意力放在客戶成功和推動採用上，然後將這種採用轉換為更新。過去幾年，我們在該領域投入了大量資金，並且我們看到續訂率做出了相應的反應。

When you look at where we're more software-heavy outside of networking, but in both security and collab, as you saw, we reported growth -- revenue growth in both of those categories. Observability is almost exclusively software, and we posted 16% revenue growth in observability. So we are seeing that actually trend in the right direction.

當你看到我們在網路之外的軟體較多的地方，但在安全和協作方面，正如你所看到的，我們報告了成長——這兩個類別的收入成長。可觀察性幾乎完全是軟體，我們在可觀察性方面的收入成長了 16%。所以我們看到實際上趨勢是朝著正確的方向發展的。

Tim Long with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的提姆朗。

One question, one follow-up. So first, maybe, Chuck, can you talk a little bit about the kind of margin growth trade-off with the head count reduction? Obviously protecting margin here, but how do you think about that trade-off given the challenging growth we've seen? And then just on a follow-up with all of the AI comments, Chuck, could you just remind us kind of where we are with -- from a product standpoint, are you seeing more traction for Silicon One or software or the full system products? If you could just give us a little color on kind of where you're seeing that pipeline growing?

一個問題，一個後續。首先，查克，你能談談獲利成長與員工人數減少之間的權衡嗎？顯然，這是為了保護利潤，但考慮到我們所看到的充滿挑戰的成長，您如何看待這種權衡？然後，在所有人工智慧評論的後續行動中，Chuck，您能否提醒我們目前的情況——從產品的角度來看，您是否看到 Silicon One 或軟體或整個系統產品更具吸引力？？您能否給我們一些關於您看到管道增長的地方的資訊？

Yes. Thanks, Tim. So on the margin growth trade-off, we're always considering that, and we're very disciplined, though. And we think that gross margins are clearly a reflection of the value that your customers see and your technology and what you deliver. And if you look at a lot of our competitors and you look at some of the market share -- I mean, some of the gross margins that they have, that tells you that they're viewed more as a commodity. And I think that our customers see real value in what we deliver to them. So while we always look at margins versus growth, we also are -- we're just disciplined across both.

是的。謝謝，蒂姆。因此，在利潤成長權衡方面，我們一直在考慮這一點，而且我們非常自律。我們認為毛利率顯然反映了您的客戶所看到的價值以及您的技術和您提供的產品。如果你看看我們的許多競爭對手，看看他們的一些市場份額——我的意思是，他們擁有的一些毛利率，這告訴你他們更多地被視為一種商品。我認為我們的客戶看到了我們為他們提供的產品的真正價值。因此，雖然我們總是關注利潤率與成長，但我們也只是在兩者之間遵守紀律。

On the AI front, Silicon One is a big play, clearly. We've delivered next-generation silicon into several of the cloud providers right now. We've got the Ethernet running in 3 of the 4 big ones. And we'll use the same silicon in the enterprise data center over time.

在人工智慧領域，Silicon One 顯然是一場大戲。我們現在已經向多家雲端供應商提供了下一代晶片。我們已經在 4 個大型網路中的 3 個中運行了乙太網路。隨著時間的推移，我們將在企業資料中心使用相同的晶片。

We've got GPUs in our UCS platforms. And so it's evolving, but we have -- I tell our teams, unlike the original cloud transition that we talked on this call several times about how we were not prepared for the infrastructure play in the cloud world, I think we are absolutely ready and well equipped to succeed in this transition to AI. It will be a tailwind for us as we get into it over time.

我們的 UCS 平台中配備了 GPU。所以它正在不斷發展，但我們已經——我告訴我們的團隊，與我們在這次電話會議上多次談到的我們沒有為雲端世界中的基礎設施建設做好準備的最初的雲端轉型不同，我認為我們已經完全準備好了，並且完全有能力成功實現向人工智慧的過渡。隨著時間的推移，這將成為我們的順風車。

Our next question comes from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

I'll stick to one, just building on that last question. I know over periods of time, you've talked a little bit about how large your webscale business is. Can you just remind us again the presence you have in some of the webscale opportunities either from a size -- and maybe ex the AI discussion, what kind of growth rates you're seeing, particularly with those webscale customers right now?

我會堅持其中一個，只是以最後一個問題為基礎。我知道一段時間以來，您已經談論過您的網路規模業務有多大。您能否再次提醒我們，您在一些網路規模機會中的存在，無論是從規模上，還是在人工智慧討論中，您所看到的成長率是多少，特別是現在對於那些網路規模客戶？

So our team measures what -- their use cases or franchises or however you want to think about it, there are specific areas within the infrastructure that we identify for each of the webscale players. And Scott, keep me honest, I want to say we're designed into 16 or...

因此，我們的團隊會衡量他們的用例或特許經營權，或者無論您想如何考慮，我們都會為每個網路規模參與者確定基礎設施中的特定區域。 Scott，老實說，我想說我們被設計成 16 或...

21.

21.

21 of those. And so that's how I would think about it. I don't think that right now, if you looked at the growth numbers, they wouldn't be reflective of what's going on because they're just digesting inventory right now. So they're not in a position where they need to order a lot because lead times have normalized so much. So I don't think that's -- it's not even relevant. I think understanding those 21 use cases -- and as I said earlier, they want dual source, and they want dual source all the way down to the silicon level. In the traditional days with carriers, they wanted 2 vendors who would provide 2 different integrated systems. In this case, that may be the case with cloud, but they also look at silicon. They look at components. They're very deep on wanting to make sure that they have resiliency and optionality.

其中21個。這就是我的想法。我不認為現在，如果你看成長數字，它們不會反映正在發生的事情，因為它們現在只是在消化庫存。因此，他們不需要大量訂購，因為交貨時間已經正常化了很多。所以我認為這甚至不相關。我認為了解這 21 個用例 - 正如我之前所說，他們想要雙源，並且他們想要雙源一直到晶片級別。在傳統的營運商時代，他們需要 2 個供應商來提供 2 個不同的整合系統。在這種情況下，雲可能就是這種情況，但他們也關注矽。他們關注的是組件。他們非常希望確保自己具有彈性和選擇性。

Aaron, the only thing I'd add is, and we said it earlier, there's no question that over time, given the way we're positioned, both from a complete box, a white box and a silicon standpoint, there's no question that AI is a tailwind for us longer term.

亞倫，我唯一要補充的是，我們之前說過，毫無疑問，隨著時間的推移，考慮到我們的定位方式，無論是從完整的盒子、白盒子還是矽的角度來看，毫無疑問從長遠來看，人工智慧對我們來說是一股順風。

James Fish with Piper Sandler.

詹姆斯·菲什和派珀·桑德勒。

Scott, based on a couple of comments you made around gross margins. Just wondering, was supply chain starting to go the other way and supply more readily available? Could we see the price increases enacted in the past now have to be given back? And any sense to how should we think about the annualized cost savings on these reductions, understanding there are people here and it's difficulty and what areas you guys expect to kind of reduce down and if some of those reductions are filled elsewhere in terms of like a net basis on head count?

斯科特，基於您對毛利率的一些評論。只是想知道，供應鏈是否開始走向相反的方向並且供應更容易獲得？我們是否可以看到過去實施的價格上漲現在必須回饋？我們應該如何考慮這些削減帶來的年化成本節省，了解這裡有人，這很困難，你們希望減少哪些領域，以及其中一些削減是否在其他地方得到填補，比如淨基礎上的人數？

Yes. On the price declines, you got to remember, go back to why we put the price increases in to begin with. And that was really to offset the higher cost that we were seeing from many of our suppliers as everyone was dealing with constraints, and supply/demand is pretty straightforward.

是的。關於價格下跌，你必須記住，回到我們一開始就漲價的原因。這實際上是為了抵消我們從許多供應商看到的更高的成本，因為每個人都在應對限制，而供需關係非常簡單。

What we haven't seen in the wake of this, some of the commodities, the prices have come down. Memory is a good example. What we haven't seen broadly is cost decreases coming in from our providers at this point. And so with that -- and you see that reflected in our gross margins, which have returned to a more normal range, but are still sitting in that 66% to 67% range. So I'm not anticipating at this point price declines, pending significant cost declines coming into us.

在此之後我們還沒有看到一些商品的價格下降了。記憶就是一個很好的例子。目前我們還沒有廣泛看到我們的提供者帶來的成本下降。因此，您會看到這反映在我們的毛利率上，毛利率已恢復到更正常的範圍，但仍處於 66% 至 67% 的範圍內。因此，我預計目前價格不會下降，等待我們的成本大幅下降。

On the cost savings, you can see where we are year-to-date. We've got a -- if you just look at operating expenses for a minute, year-to-date, operating expenses are modestly up. And after working our way through the restructuring that we discussed today, for the full year, we think they'll be modestly down. So I think that's probably the right way to think about it as you're looking to build your model.

關於成本節省，您可以看到我們今年迄今為止的情況。我們有一個——如果你只看一下營運費用，今年迄今為止，營運費用略有上升。在完成我們今天討論的重組之後，我們認為全年的業績將會略有下降。所以我認為當你想要建立你的模型時，這可能是正確的思考方式。

Thank you, Jim. Cisco's next quarterly conference call, which will reflect our fiscal year '24 third quarter results, will be on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. This concludes today's call. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact Cisco Investor Relations, and we thank you very much for joining the call today.

謝謝你，吉姆。思科將於 2024 年 5 月 15 日星期三下午 1:30 召開下一次季度電話會議，該電話會議將反映我們 2024 財年第三季的業績。太平洋時間下午 4:30東部時間。今天的電話會議到此結束。如果您還有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫思科投資者關係部，我們非常感謝您今天參加電話會議。

Thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (800) 876-5258. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369-3998. This concludes today's call. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想收聽完整的通話內容，可以撥打 (800) 876-5258。對於從美國境外撥打的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369-3998。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連線。