思科 (CSCO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2023 財年第三季度財務業績電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製中。如有異議，可斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora。女士，您可以開始了。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. And I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO.

歡迎大家參加思科 2023 財年第三季度季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora。我們的主席兼首席執行官查克·羅賓斯 (Chuck Robbins) 也加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Scott Herren。

By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call. Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheet, cash flow statements and other financial information can be found in the Financial Information section of the Investor Relations website. Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders, unless stated otherwise. All comparisons made throughout this call will be made on a year-over-year basis.

到目前為止，您應該已經看到了我們的收益新聞稿。電話會議後，將在我們網站的“投資者關係”部分提供相應的帶幻燈片的網絡廣播，包括補充信息。損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節信息、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務信息可在投資者關係網站的“財務信息”部分找到。在整個電話會議中，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，並且我們將討論收入方面的產品結果以及產品訂單方面的地理和客戶結果，除非另有說明。在本次電話會議中進行的所有比較都將按年進行。

The matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2023. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2023 財年第四季度和全年提供的指導。它們受到我們在提交給SEC，特別是關於 10-K 和 10-Q 表格的最新報告，這些報告確定了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果大不相同的重要風險因素。關於指南，另請參閱本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和新聞稿以了解更多詳細信息。除非通過明確的公開披露，否則思科不會在本季度對其財務指導發表評論。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Chuck.

有了這個，我現在把它交給查克。

Thank you, Marilyn, and hope you all are doing well. This was another strong quarter for us, and I'm proud of what our teams have achieved. In Q3, we delivered our strongest ever revenue, non-GAAP income, non-GAAP EPS and operating cash flow. We also continued to successfully execute on our strategy, driving solid growth in ARR to nearly $24 billion and posting double-digit growth in subscription and software revenues. Based on our strong Q3 performance, we are once again raising our fiscal 2023 outlook for revenue and earnings per share, which Scott will cover shortly. As we look ahead to fiscal year '24, we expect to see modest revenue growth even with the tough compare of double-digit growth in fiscal year '23.

謝謝你，瑪麗蓮，希望你們一切都好。這對我們來說又是一個強勁的季度，我為我們的團隊所取得的成就感到自豪。在第三季度，我們實現了有史以來最強勁的收入、非 GAAP 收入、非 GAAP 每股收益和經營現金流。我們還繼續成功執行我們的戰略，推動 ARR 穩步增長至近 240 億美元，並在訂閱和軟件收入方面實現兩位數增長。基於我們強勁的第三季度業績，我們再次上調了 2023 財年的收入和每股收益展望，Scott 稍後將對此進行介紹。展望 24 財年，我們預計收入將適度增長，即使與 23 財年的兩位數增長形成鮮明對比。

Now before I go through our Q3 performance, I'd like to discuss 3 key areas that will help drive our long-term growth. First, we are pleased with continued success in our movement towards more subscriptions and recurring revenue. In Q3, we delivered 18% growth in software revenues. We also have $32 billion in remaining performance obligations, and we expect to see this momentum accelerate.

現在，在我介紹我們第三季度的業績之前，我想討論 3 個有助於推動我們長期增長的關鍵領域。首先，我們對在增加訂閱和經常性收入方面的持續成功感到高興。在第三季度，我們的軟件收入增長了 18%。我們還有 320 億美元的剩餘履約義務，我們預計這一勢頭會加速。

Second, security continues to be an enormous opportunity for us. As you've heard me say, we've revamped our strategy, put a world-class team in place and made this a top priority for the company. Over the coming quarters, you will see new innovations in this space, building on our strong Cisco Security Cloud strategy, including at Cisco Live next month. Based on the rapid progress we are making, we are optimistic about our opportunity in this fast-growing market.

其次，安全對我們來說仍然是一個巨大的機會。正如你聽到我說的那樣，我們已經修改了我們的戰略，組建了一支世界一流的團隊，並將其作為公司的首要任務。在接下來的幾個季度中，您將看到這一領域的新創新，建立在我們強大的思科安全雲戰略的基礎上，包括下個月的 Cisco Live。基於我們正在取得的快速進步，我們對我們在這個快速增長的市場中的機會持樂觀態度。

And third, Generative AI and cloud. At Cisco, we already use predictive AI extensively across our portfolio. In addition, our core networking technology is already powering some of the leading AI models run by hyperscalers around the world. We have also moved rapidly to leverage Generative AI capabilities in our own products, which you'll hear more about in the next few weeks and beyond, starting at Cisco Live.

第三，生成式人工智能和雲。在思科，我們已經在我們的產品組合中廣泛使用預測人工智能。此外，我們的核心網絡技術已經為全球超大規模運營商運行的一些領先人工智能模型提供支持。我們還迅速採取行動，在我們自己的產品中利用生成式 AI 功能，從 Cisco Live 開始，您將在接下來的幾週及以後聽到更多相關信息。

Now let me discuss our quarterly performance. As I mentioned, in Q3, we delivered our highest ever quarterly revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share, exceeding the high end of our guidance range. We saw healthy margins and record non-GAAP net income, which reflect our strong operating discipline. All of this contributed to record operating cash flow in Q3. As we expected, the actions we took to mitigate supply constraints have continued to pay off. Price realization, as a result of the actions we put in place last year, helped to offset inflationary pressures. Our disciplined cost management enabled us to continue to expand gross margins as well as prioritize our strategic investments to drive long-term growth.

現在讓我討論一下我們的季度業績。正如我所提到的，在第三季度，我們實現了有史以來最高的季度收入和非 GAAP 每股收益，超過了我們指導範圍的高端。我們看到了健康的利潤率和創紀錄的非 GAAP 淨收入，這反映了我們嚴格的經營紀律。所有這些都促成了第三季度創紀錄的經營現金流。正如我們所料，我們為緩解供應限製而採取的行動繼續取得成效。由於我們去年採取的行動，價格實現有助於抵消通脹壓力。我們嚴格的成本管理使我們能夠繼續擴大毛利率，並優先考慮我們的戰略投資以推動長期增長。

As it relates to customer demand, it is being shaped by a few factors that we believe are impacting the entire industry. First, our increase in product shipments is often leading customers and partners to absorb these shipments prior to placing new orders. Second, the significant reduction in product lead times reduces the need for extensive advanced ordering by our customers. And third, macroeconomic conditions. With this said, in our discussions with customers, such as the ones we had at our most recent Global Customer Advisory Board event earlier this month, they continue to invest in key technologies that are core to their overall strategies.

由於它與客戶需求相關，它受到我們認為影響整個行業的一些因素的影響。首先，我們產品出貨量的增加通常導致客戶和合作夥伴在下新訂單之前吸收這些出貨量。其次，產品交貨時間的顯著縮短減少了我們客戶對大量提前訂購的需求。第三，宏觀經濟狀況。話雖如此，在我們與客戶的討論中，例如我們在本月早些時候最近的全球客戶諮詢委員會活動中進行的討論，他們繼續投資於作為其整體戰略核心的關鍵技術。

As we previously shared, given the unprecedented demand for our technology during the pandemic, we believe sequential order rates are far more informative than year-over-year rates. Just like the prior 2 quarters, our sequentials in Q3 were in general alignment with historical ranges coming in 1 point below the historical range. In addition, our order cancellation rates also remained well below historical levels, indicating the strength of our backlog and portfolio. In terms of our backlog, we continue to expect that we will end the fiscal year with roughly double our normal product backlog.

正如我們之前分享的那樣，鑑於大流行期間對我們技術的空前需求，我們認為順序訂單率比同比訂單率提供的信息要多得多。就像前兩個季度一樣，我們在第三季度的連續性與歷史範圍基本一致，比歷史範圍低 1 個百分點。此外，我們的訂單取消率也遠低於歷史水平，表明我們的積壓訂單和產品組合實力強勁。就我們的積壓而言，我們繼續預計我們將在本財年結束時將大約是正常產品積壓的兩倍。

Now let me share a bit more detail about some of our newest innovations. Regarding our webscale customers, they are currently consuming and implementing their prior significant technology investments. There remains a huge growth opportunity across all these customers, enabled by our portfolio of hardware, software, silicon and systems. We already see early design wins in AI infrastructure and continue to see other wins and competitive displacements, leading to continued share gain in this space.

現在讓我分享一些關於我們最新創新的更多細節。關於我們的網絡規模客戶，他們目前正在消費和實施他們之前的重大技術投資。在我們的硬件、軟件、芯片和系統產品組合的支持下，所有這些客戶仍然存在巨大的增長機會。我們已經看到 AI 基礎設施的早期設計勝利，並繼續看到其他勝利和競爭優勢的取代，從而導致該領域的份額持續增加。

In our networking business, we remain focused on building solutions that drive a higher return on investment and sustainability. In March, we introduced 800-gig capability to our Cisco 8000 platform with the industry's first 28.8 terabit line card, powered by Cisco Silicon One ASICs and pluggable optics. This new platform can deliver up to 68% power savings and 83% space savings compared to 400-gig solutions, helping to reduce operational costs and carbon emissions as well as enabling the densification of networks to support use cases such as AIML and IoT. This continues to drive positive customer feedback, and we're excited about this opportunity.

在我們的網絡業務中，我們仍然專注於構建能夠推動更高投資回報和可持續性的解決方案。 3 月，我們在 Cisco 8000 平台上引入了 800-gig 功能，採用業界首款 28.8 太比特線卡，由 Cisco Silicon One ASIC 和可插拔光學器件提供支持。與 400-gig 解決方案相比，這個新平台可以節省高達 68% 的功率和 83% 的空間，有助於降低運營成本和碳排放，並實現網絡緻密化以支持 AIML 和物聯網等用例。這繼續推動積極的客戶反饋，我們對這個機會感到興奮。

To complement our own innovations, in Q3, we closed the acquisition of Valtix, which is aligned to our security cloud vision for providing protection across multi-cloud environments with a seamless experience. We also announced our intent to acquire 2 companies that further extend our capabilities in cloud, security and full stack observability.

為了補充我們自己的創新，在第三季度，我們完成了對 Valtix 的收購，這符合我們的安全雲願景，即通過無縫體驗跨多雲環境提供保護。我們還宣布了收購 2 家公司的意向，以進一步擴展我們在雲、安全和全堆棧可觀察性方面的能力。

Before I close, I also want to share once again how incredibly proud I am that for the third year in a row, we were ranked #1 in the U.S. on Fortune Magazine's 100 Best Companies to work for. And in 14 other countries around the world, we were also ranked as the #1 Great Place to Work, reflecting Cisco's position as a premier destination for top talent worldwide.

在我結束之前，我還想再次分享我是多麼的自豪，因為我們連續第三年在美國財富雜誌的 100 家最適合工作的公司中排名第一。在全球其他 14 個國家/地區，我們也被評為最佳工作場所第一名，這反映了思科作為全球頂尖人才首選目的地的地位。

To summarize, our ability to navigate uncertainty was demonstrated by our record results. Our performance remains solid and reflects the strength of our strategy and the benefits from the investments we've made over the last several years. Our operational discipline and excellence in execution are driving record earnings, cash flow and shareholder value.

總而言之，我們創紀錄的成績證明了我們應對不確定性的能力。我們的業績依然穩健，反映了我們戰略的優勢以及我們過去幾年投資的收益。我們的運營紀律和卓越的執行力正在推動創紀錄的收益、現金流和股東價值。

As we look towards Q4 and fiscal year '24, I'd like to share a few observations. As I mentioned earlier, as of now, we see modest revenue growth in fiscal year '24 on top of our strong performance in fiscal year '23. You can also expect us to grow earnings per share at a higher rate than revenue in Q4 fiscal year '23 and full year fiscal year '24, reflecting improving gross margins and strong expense management. Lastly, we expect to continue our stock buybacks at the higher levels you've seen over the last 2 quarters.

在我們展望第四季度和 24 財年時，我想分享一些看法。正如我之前提到的，截至目前，除了我們在 23 財年的強勁表現之外，我們還看到 24 財年的收入溫和增長。您還可以預期我們的每股收益增長速度高於 23 財年第四季度和 24 財年全年的收入，這反映了毛利率的提高和強大的費用管理。最後，我們預計將繼續以您在過去兩個季度看到的更高水平回購股票。

I'd like to thank our teams for their focus and execution and our customers and partners for the trust they placed in us. As cloud, AI and security continue to scale, Cisco's long-established leadership in networking and the breadth of our portfolio, give me the confidence in our ability to capture the many opportunities ahead.

我要感謝我們的團隊的專注和執行力，感謝我們的客戶和合作夥伴對我們的信任。隨著雲、人工智能和安全的不斷擴展，思科在網絡領域長期確立的領導地位和我們產品組合的廣度讓我相信我們有能力抓住未來的許多機會。

I'll now turn it over to Scott.

我現在將其交給 Scott。

Thanks, Chuck. We delivered a record quarter that exceeded both our top and bottom line expectations driven by focused execution, continued business transformation and the actions we've taken over the last several quarters to mitigate supply issues. We reported our strongest ever revenue, non-GAAP income, non-GAAP earnings per share and operating cash flow for the quarter. Total revenue was $14.6 billion, up 14% year-on-year. Non-GAAP net income was $4.1 billion. And non-GAAP earnings per share was $1, up 15%.

謝謝，查克。在集中執行、持續的業務轉型以及我們在過去幾個季度為緩解供應問題而採取的行動的推動下，我們交付了一個創紀錄的季度，超出了我們的最高和最低預期。我們報告了本季度有史以來最強勁的收入、非 GAAP 收入、非 GAAP 每股收益和運營現金流。總收入為 146 億美元，同比增長 14%。非 GAAP 淨收入為 41 億美元。非 GAAP 每股收益為 1 美元，增長 15%。

Looking at our Q3 revenue in more detail. Total product revenue was $11.1 billion, up 17%. And service revenue was $3.5 billion, up 3%. Within product revenue, Secure Agile Networks, our largest business, was very strong, up 29%. Switching revenue had strong double-digit growth with strength in both campus and data center switching driven by our Catalyst 9000, Meraki and Nexus 9000 offerings. Enterprise routing growth was driven primarily by strength in our Catalyst 8000 Series routers, SD-WAN and IoT routing. And wireless also had very strong double-digit growth with strength driven by our WiFi 6 products and Meraki wireless offerings.

更詳細地查看我們第三季度的收入。產品總收入為 111 億美元，增長 17%。服務收入為 35 億美元，增長 3%。在產品收入中，我們最大的業務 Secure Agile Networks 表現非常強勁，增長了 29%。在我們的 Catalyst 9000、Meraki 和 Nexus 9000 產品的推動下，交換收入實現了兩位數的強勁增長，園區和數據中心交換的實力強勁。企業路由增長主要是由我們的 Catalyst 8000 系列路由器、SD-WAN 和物聯網路由的實力推動的。在我們的 WiFi 6 產品和 Meraki 無線產品的推動下，無線業務也實現了非常強勁的兩位數增長。

Internet for the future was up 5%, driven by growth in our core routing products, including very strong growth in our Cisco 8000 offering. We also saw double-digit growth in webscale. Collaboration was down 13% driven by declines in collaboration devices and meetings, offset slightly by growth in calling and contact center. End-to-end security was up 2% driven by our Unified Threat Management and Zero Trust offerings. And optimized application experiences was up 12% driven by growth across the portfolio, including double-digit growth in ThousandEyes.

受我們核心路由產品增長的推動，未來互聯網增長了 5%，其中包括我們 Cisco 8000 產品的強勁增長。我們還看到了網絡規模的兩位數增長。由於協作設備和會議的減少，協作下降了 13%，但被呼叫和聯絡中心的增長略微抵消了。在我們的統一威脅管理和零信任產品的推動下，端到端安全性提高了 2%。在整個產品組合的增長推動下，優化的應用程序體驗增長了 12%，其中包括 ThousandEyes 的兩位數增長。

We continue to make progress on our transformation metrics as we shift our business to more recurring revenue-based offerings driven by higher levels of software and subscriptions. We saw solid performance of our ARR of $23.8 billion, which increased 6% with product ARR growth of 10%. Total software revenue was $4.3 billion, an increase of 18%, with software subscription revenue up 17%. 82% of software revenues were subscription-based.

隨著我們將業務轉向由更高水平的軟件和訂閱驅動的更多基於經常性收入的產品，我們繼續在轉型指標方面取得進展。我們的 ARR 表現穩健，達到 238 億美元，產品 ARR 增長 6%，產品 ARR 增長 10%。軟件總收入為 43 億美元，增長 18%，其中軟件訂閱收入增長 17%。 82% 的軟件收入是基於訂閱的。

We continue to have an elevated level of software orders and our product backlog. Total subscription revenue was $6.1 billion, an increase of 11%. RPO was $32.1 billion, up 6%, with product RPO increasing 9% and service RPO increasing 4%. And total short-term RPO grew to $16.9 billion.

我們繼續擁有更高水平的軟件訂單和我們的產品積壓。訂閱總收入為 61 億美元，增長 11%。 RPO 為 321 億美元，增長 6%，其中產品 RPO 增長 9%，服務 RPO 增長 4%。短期 RPO 總額增長至 169 億美元。

Total product orders were down 23% driven by the 3 factors Chuck pointed out earlier. The aging of our backlog has improved significantly, and we continue to have very low cancellation, rates, reflecting the quality of our past orders and critical nature of our product portfolio. Total non-GAAP gross margin came in at 65.2%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and down 10 basis points year-over-year. Product gross margin was 64.5%, up 240 basis points sequentially and up 40 basis points year-over-year. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by positive pricing and favorable product mix. This was partially offset by higher component and other costs. Services gross margin was 67.3%, down 160 basis points year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating margin was at the high end of our guidance range at 33.9%, down 80 basis points year-over-year and up 140 basis points sequentially.

受 Chuck 先前指出的三個因素驅動，產品訂單總額下降了 23%。我們積壓訂單的老化情況有了顯著改善，我們的取消率仍然很低，這反映了我們過去訂單的質量和我們產品組合的關鍵性質。非 GAAP 總毛利率為 65.2%，超過我們指導範圍的上限，同比下降 10 個基點。產品毛利率為 64.5%，環比上升 240 個基點，同比上升 40 個基點。同比增長主要是由積極的定價和有利的產品組合推動的。這部分被較高的組件和其他成本所抵消。服務毛利率為 67.3%，同比下降 160 個基點。非 GAAP 營業利潤率處於我們指導範圍的高端 33.9%，同比下降 80 個基點，環比上升 140 個基點。

Backlog for both our hardware and software products continues to significantly exceed historical levels. Due to an improving supply situation and our focused execution, we were able to accelerate shipments of our aged backlog to meet customer needs, which resulted in a decline in backlog level sequentially and year-over-year. We continue to expect to exit the year with roughly double our normal product backlog. And just a reminder, backlog is not included as part of our $32 billion in remaining performance obligations. Combined, our significant product backlog and RPO continued to provide great visibility to our top line as we approach fiscal year '24.

我們的硬件和軟件產品的積壓繼續大大超過歷史水平。由於供應情況的改善和我們專注的執行，我們能夠加快陳舊積壓的發貨以滿足客戶需求，從而導致積壓水平環比和同比下降。我們繼續期望以大約兩倍於正常產品積壓的數量退出今年。提醒一下，積壓不包括在我們 320 億美元的剩餘履約義務中。隨著我們接近 24 財年，我們大量的產品積壓和 RPO 相結合，繼續為我們的收入提供很好的可見性。

Shifting to the balance sheet. We ended Q3 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $23.3 billion. We had record operating cash flow for the quarter of $5.2 billion, up 43% year-over-year driven primarily by strong collections and the deferral of our Q3 federal tax payment due to the IRS tax relief related to the California floods earlier this year. The federal tax payment deferral had a positive impact of approximately 20 points of growth year-over-year on Q3 operating cash flow. This recent IRS relief postponed our remaining current year federal income tax payment deadlines until Q1 of our fiscal '24.

轉向資產負債表。截至第三季度末，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額為 233 億美元。我們本季度的運營現金流達到創紀錄的 52 億美元，同比增長 43%，這主要是由於強勁的收款以及由於今年早些時候與加利福尼亞洪水相關的 IRS 稅收減免而推遲了我們第三季度的聯邦稅款。聯邦納稅延期對第三季度運營現金流產生了約 20 個點的同比增長的積極影響。美國國稅局最近的這項減免將我們剩餘的本年度聯邦所得稅繳納期限推遲到我們 24 財年的第一季度。

In line with our disciplined capital allocation strategy and commitment to return capital, we returned $2.9 billion to shareholders during the quarter, which was comprised of $1.6 billion for our quarterly cash dividend and $1.3 billion of share repurchases. We ended the quarter with $12.2 billion in remaining stock purchase authorization. Year-to-date, we've returned a total of $7.7 billion via cash dividends and share repurchases. This reinforces our confidence in the strength and stability of our ongoing cash flows.

根據我們嚴格的資本分配策略和資本回報承諾，本季度我們向股東返還了 29 億美元，其中包括 16 億美元的季度現金股息和 13 億美元的股票回購。我們在本季度末獲得了 122 億美元的剩餘股票購買授權。年初至今，我們通過現金股息和股票回購共返還了 77 億美元。這增強了我們對持續現金流量的實力和穩定性的信心。

We continue to invest organically and inorganically in our innovation pipeline. During Q3, we announced and closed the acquisition of Valtix, which further strengthens our security portfolio. This investment is consistent with our strategy of complementing our internal innovation in R&D with targeted strategic M&A.

我們繼續對我們的創新管道進行有機和無機投資。在第三季度，我們宣布並完成了對 Valtix 的收購，這進一步加強了我們的安全產品組合。這項投資符合我們通過有針對性的戰略併購來補充我們在研發方面的內部創新的戰略。

To summarize, we had a strong quarter, delivering record top line growth, non-GAAP profitability and cash flow. We continue to make progress on our business model shift to more recurring revenue while making strategic investments in innovation to capitalize on our significant growth opportunities.

總而言之，我們有一個強勁的季度，實現了創紀錄的收入增長、非 GAAP 盈利能力和現金流。我們繼續在向更多經常性收入轉變的業務模式方面取得進展，同時對創新進行戰略投資以利用我們重要的增長機會。

Turning now to our guidance. For fiscal Q4, our guidance is, we expect revenue growth to be in the range of 14% to 16%. We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 64.5% to 65.5%, and our non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 34% to 35%. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $1.05 to $1.07.

現在轉向我們的指導。對於第四財季，我們的指導意見是，我們預計收入增長將在 14% 至 16% 之間。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率在 64.5% 至 65.5% 之間，我們的非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率預計在 34% 至 35% 之間。非 GAAP 每股收益預計在 1.05 美元至 1.07 美元之間。

As Chuck mentioned, we are yet again raising our fiscal year guidance for fiscal '23, which is as follows. We expect revenue growth to be in the range of 10% to 10.5% year-on-year. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $3.80 to $3.82. In both our Q4 and full year guidance, we're assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 19%.

正如查克所提到的，我們再次提高了對 23 財年的財政年度指導，如下所示。我們預計收入同比增長在 10% 至 10.5% 之間。非 GAAP 每股收益預計在 3.80 美元至 3.82 美元之間。在我們的第四季度和全年指導中，我們假設非 GAAP 有效稅率為 19%。

Our guidance ranges reflect significant visibility driven by healthy backlog, ARR, RPO and improving availability of supply. As Chuck mentioned earlier, as of now, we see modest revenue growth in fiscal '24 on top of our strong performance in fiscal '23. You can also expect us to deliver earnings per share at a higher growth rate than revenue in Q4 and in fiscal '24, reflecting improving gross margins and strong expense management. And lastly, we expect to continue our stock buybacks at the higher level you've seen over the last 2 quarters.

我們的指導範圍反映了健康積壓、ARR、RPO 和供應可用性提高所推動的顯著可見性。正如查克之前提到的，截至目前，除了我們在 23 財年的強勁表現之外，我們還看到 24 財年的收入溫和增長。您還可以預期我們在第四季度和 24 財年的每股收益增長率高於收入，這反映了毛利率的提高和強大的費用管理。最後，我們預計將繼續以您在過去兩個季度看到的更高水平回購股票。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

我現在將把它轉回瑪麗蓮，這樣我們就可以進入問答環節了。

Thanks, Scott. Michelle, let's go ahead and tee up the queue for questions.

謝謝，斯科特。米歇爾，讓我們繼續排隊提問。

Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

Samik Chatterjee 與摩根大通。

I guess maybe if I can start with a clarification on the orders. I think, Chuck, I heard you say orders were sequentially 1 point below seasonality. But if you can clarify whether on a quarter-over-quarter basis, they were up or down, and I'm not sure if you gave it year-over-year. But maybe more broadly, as you think about your guide for next year as well, are you -- what are you assuming for orders in that? And I have a follow-up.

我想也許我可以先澄清一下訂單。我想，查克，我聽說你說訂單連續低於季節性 1 個百分點。但是，如果你能澄清在季度環比的基礎上，它們是上漲還是下跌，我不確定你是否給出了同比數據。但也許更廣泛地說，當你考慮明年的指南時，你是——你對訂單的假設是什麼？我有一個後續行動。

Thanks, Samik. As I said in the opening comments, there are 3 factors really that are affecting demand, first of all. Our -- as we ship more of our backlog, our customers are digesting what they've ordered. Secondly, as our lead times come down, which our lead times have come down 40% over the last 2 quarters on a weighted basis, so it really eliminates the need for customers to order significantly in advance as they had been. And then obviously, the macro conditions.

謝謝，薩米克。正如我在開場評論中所說，首先，真正影響需求的因素有 3 個。我們的——隨著我們運送更多積壓訂單，我們的客戶正在消化他們訂購的東西。其次，隨著我們的交貨時間縮短，過去兩個季度我們的交貨時間在加權基礎上下降了 40%，因此它確實消除了客戶像以前那樣提前大量訂購的需要。然後很明顯，宏觀條件。

When I talk about sequentials, as I've said, the year-over-years are just so hard to figure out that we've said the real thing we're looking for relative to whether we're seeing a momentum shift in the business is, are the sequentials in line? And as I've said the last couple of quarters and this quarter as well, the sequentials were operating at or slightly below the low end of our historical ranges. So I wouldn't say it's robust, but it's still within the range or slightly below. And as we look at Q4, we actually expect our sequentials to be in line with what we've seen historically. So our view based on what we see today is that we can still deliver positive growth in fiscal year '24, even on top of the good growth year we had this year.

當我談到順序時，正如我所說的，年復一年很難弄清楚，我們已經說過我們正在尋找的真實事物相對於我們是否看到勢頭轉變業務是，順序是否一致？正如我在過去幾個季度和本季度所說的那樣，連續運行處於或略低於我們歷史範圍的低端。所以我不會說它很穩健，但它仍在該範圍內或略低於該範圍。當我們看第四季度時，我們實際上希望我們的序列與我們歷史上看到的一致。因此，根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們的觀點是，即使在今年的良好增長年度之上，我們仍然可以在 24 財年實現正增長。

I'll make one other point. If you go back to September '21 when we had our analyst conference, we actually laid out long-term top line growth of 5% to 7%, long-term EPS growth of 5% to 7%. If you move to the end of fiscal '24 based on what we see today, we will be in that range from a CAGR perspective, on a revenue perspective, and we'll be above that range from an EPS perspective during that same time period.

我再說一點。如果你回到 21 年 9 月我們召開分析師會議時，我們實際上製定了 5% 至 7% 的長期收入增長，5% 至 7% 的長期每股收益增長。如果你根據我們今天看到的情況移動到 24 財年末，從 CAGR 的角度來看，從收入的角度來看，我們將處於該範圍內，並且在同一時期內，從 EPS 的角度來看，我們將高於該範圍.

Okay. Got it. And for my follow-up, I think I wanted to sort of touch on that expense control that you talked about and EPS growing faster than revenue. Is that sort of a change of thinking from the Analyst Day in terms of -- I think at the Analyst Day, you were talking about sort of limited operating leverage and growing earnings more in line with revenue. It seems to be that outside of the gross margin, you're thinking about being a bit more disciplined and pulling back on expenses, but maybe confirm if that's sort of how you -- if we are interpreting that right.

好的。知道了。對於我的後續行動，我想我想談談你談到的費用控制和 EPS 增長快於收入的增長。從分析師日的角度來看，這種想法是否有所改變——我認為在分析師日，你在談論某種有限的經營槓桿和更符合收入的收入增長。似乎是在毛利率之外，您正在考慮更加自律並減少開支，但也許可以確認您是否就是這樣——如果我們的解釋是正確的。

Yes. Samik, if you look at the last 2 years, we've actually grown EPS faster than revenue. And as we look to Q4 and then beyond, it's pretty clear that with the gross margin expansion and with our expense management that we are implementing, we can still fund the investment areas that we need to fund as well as actually deliver higher EPS growth rates than revenue, which is what a lot of our investors have been asking for. And so we believe that's quite feasible for us to do now. Scott, do you have any comments on that?

是的。 Samik，如果你看看過去 2 年，我們實際上 EPS 的增長速度快於收入增長速度。當我們展望第四季度及以後時，很明顯，隨著毛利率的擴大和我們正在實施的費用管理，我們仍然可以為我們需要資助的投資領域提供資金，並實際實現更高的每股收益增長率而不是收入，這是我們很多投資者一直要求的。所以我們相信我們現在這樣做是非常可行的。斯科特，你對此有何評論？

No. I think you touched on the key points. We will continue to invest in growth. But we also -- as you've seen in the last 2 years, you've seen us do this grow the bottom line faster than the top line in fiscal '22 and at the midpoint of our guide for fiscal '23. And as we look ahead, it's a time to be prudent, and so we see that happening again in fiscal '24.

不，我認為你觸及了關鍵點。我們將繼續投資於增長。但我們也——正如你在過去兩年中看到的那樣，你已經看到我們這樣做的利潤增長速度快於 22 財年的頂線，並且處於我們 23 財年指南的中點。展望未來，現在是謹慎行事的時候了，所以我們看到這種情況在 24 財年再次發生。

Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

西蒙利奧波德和雷蒙德詹姆斯。

At the beginning of May, Cisco announced a capital business acceleration program as a part of Cisco Capital. This is a topic we haven't talked about much on recent calls. I'd just like a little bit better understanding as to what's the strategy, thought process and rationale for implementing that program?

5 月初，思科宣布了一項資本業務加速計劃，作為思科資本的一部分。這是我們在最近的電話會議上沒有過多討論的話題。我只是想更好地了解實施該計劃的戰略、思維過程和基本原理是什麼？

Yes, Simon, thanks for the question. That's something that you've seen us do in the past. It's more a reflection of interest rates jumping up to 5%. Our customers needing to get their hands on technology to continue to advance their own strategies and us just putting our balance sheet to work a bit. It's not more complicated than that.

是的，西蒙，謝謝你的提問。這是您過去看到我們所做的事情。這更多地反映了利率躍升至 5%。我們的客戶需要掌握技術以繼續推進他們自己的戰略，而我們只是讓我們的資產負債表發揮作用。沒有比這更複雜的了。

And no real effect on your financial model, I assume then?

對你的財務模型沒有真正的影響，我想是嗎？

No. Not in terms of profitability or in terms of the long-term impact that's going to have.

不。不是在盈利能力方面，也不是在將要產生的長期影響方面。

David Vogt with UBS.

大衛沃格特與瑞銀。

Maybe just more qualitative and maybe as a follow-up to Simon's question. Can you kind of give a little bit more color on what you saw, let's say, in March into April and what you're seeing today from a macro perspective? Because it certainly sounds like from our conversations with partners and other industry folks that March was a bit softer than people had anticipated, and it didn't improve in April. Just love to get your perspective there.

也許只是更定性，也許是作為對西蒙問題的後續行動。你能否從宏觀角度對你所看到的，比方說，從三月到四月，以及你今天所看到的，再多說一點？因為從我們與合作夥伴和其他業內人士的談話中可以肯定，3 月份的情況比人們預期的要溫和一些，而且 4 月份也沒有改善。只是喜歡在那裡得到你的觀點。

And then I'll give you my follow-up real quick. So if I kind of take your comment about the 3-year plan, it certainly would imply kind of revenue growth next year in kind of the 2%, 3% range and EPS in the 5% range. Is that kind of what you're trying to communicate from a back-of-the-envelope perspective next year given the macro headwinds?

然後我會很快給你我的後續行動。因此，如果我接受你對 3 年計劃的評論，那肯定意味著明年的收入增長在 2%、3% 範圍內，每股收益在 5% 範圍內。考慮到宏觀逆風，明年你會從粗略的角度傳達這種信息嗎？

I'm sorry, David, could you repeat that second part, the numbers you had there? I didn't catch them.

對不起，戴維，你能重複第二部分嗎，你那裡的數字？我沒有抓住他們。

Yes. If I just kind of take the back-of-the-envelope math on your 5% to 7% 3-year target, that would imply revenue growth next year in the 2% to 3% range and EPS maybe 5% to 6% range. Is that kind of what you're trying to message here? Just so we have a sense for how you're thinking about the macro.

是的。如果我只是對你 5% 到 7% 的 3 年目標進行粗略計算，那將意味著明年的收入增長在 2% 到 3% 的範圍內，每股收益可能在 5% 到 6% 之間範圍。這就是你想在這里傳達的信息嗎？這樣我們就能了解您對宏觀的看法。

All right, David. Thanks for the questions. So let me talk about the linearity that we saw in the quarter. It actually was very favorable from our perspective on the orders. While we clearly see that we're operating at the low end of historical ranges on a sequential basis, we did not see it deteriorate from the beginning of the quarter to the end. In fact, it was -- our linearity was slightly better than it normally is. And April was actually sort of in line with what we've seen, maybe even (inaudible) better than the first 2 months. So we did not see that particular outcome.

好的，大衛。感謝您的提問。那麼讓我談談我們在本季度看到的線性。從我們對訂單的角度來看，這實際上是非常有利的。雖然我們清楚地看到我們在連續的基礎上處於歷史範圍的低端，但我們沒有看到它從本季度開始到結束時惡化。事實上，它是——我們的線性度比正常情況下稍微好一些。 4 月實際上與我們所看到的情況一致，甚至可能（聽不清）比前 2 個月更好。所以我們沒有看到那個特定的結果。

And again, what we're looking for is a change in underlying momentum. I'm not suggesting there's strong momentum. I'm just saying we're looking for a change. And the best way to do that is to really understand, do the sequentials continue to play out the way they're supposed to? And as of now, we see they are playing out very consistently and sort of the low end of the range or slightly below. And then, Scott, do you want to take the FY '24 number?

同樣，我們正在尋找的是潛在動力的變化。我並不是說有強勁的勢頭。我只是說我們正在尋求改變。做到這一點的最好方法是真正理解，連續劇是否繼續按預期方式播放？截至目前，我們看到他們的表現非常穩定，處於該範圍的低端或略低於該範圍。然後，斯科特，你想拿 FY '24 號碼嗎？

Yes, sure. Just on the math you're trying to do, David, I think you're in the right ballpark. What I'd say, obviously, I don't want to get into being too precise on fiscal '24 yet since it's only our Q3 call. But bear in mind, that's growth on fiscal '24 on top of at the midpoint of our guide for fiscal '23, 10.2% growth in fiscal '23. The last time we had double-digit revenue growth for a full year was back in 2012 in the bounce back of the -- from the global financial crisis. So it's a very strong year this year, and we see a modest level of growth on top of that.

是的，當然。戴維，就你正在嘗試做的數學而言，我認為你在正確的範圍內。很明顯，我要說的是，我不想在 24 財年過於精確，因為這只是我們的第三季度電話會議。但請記住，這是我們 23 財年指南中點的 24 財年增長，即 23 財年 10.2% 的增長。我們上一次實現全年兩位數的收入增長是在 2012 年，當時正值從全球金融危機中反彈。所以今年是非常強勁的一年，除此之外我們還看到了適度的增長。

George Notter with Jefferies.

George Notter 與 Jefferies。

I guess I wanted to ask about the growth expectation for this year. I'm curious about your view. How much of that growth comes from price? How much comes from backlog consumption? What are the bigger factors driving that growth this year?

我想我想問一下今年的增長預期。我很好奇你的看法。有多少增長來自價格？積壓消耗有多少？推動今年增長的更大因素是什麼？

Yes. I guess where I'd start is the biggest factor driving the growth for this year is the huge amount of demand we've had from our customers that's been sitting in backlog as we've worked our way through some of the supply issues. That's -- if you ask what's driving the growth, it's that, it's end-user demand.

是的。我想我從哪裡開始是推動今年增長的最大因素是我們從客戶那裡得到的大量需求，這些需求一直積壓，因為我們已經解決了一些供應問題。那就是——如果你問是什麼推動了增長，那就是最終用戶的需求。

When you start to peel back to the mechanics of how that got put together, a lot of it is our ability to -- based on a lot of hard work actually from both the engineering team and the supply chain team to free up some of the component supply issues that we've had that's allowed us to work through some of the backlog. We're not finished. There's still supply constraints. We think we end the year. Just like we said last quarter, we end the year with still with roughly double what our normal backlog would be, but we've made great strides on that front.

當你開始回顧這些是如何組合在一起的機制時，很多是我們的能力——基於工程團隊和供應鏈團隊的大量辛勤工作，釋放了一些我們遇到的組件供應問題使我們能夠解決一些積壓的問題。我們還沒有完成。仍然存在供應限制。我們認為我們結束了這一年。就像我們上個季度所說的那樣，到年底我們的積壓工作量仍然是正常情況下的大約兩倍，但我們在這方面取得了長足的進步。

Price has been a positive for us. As we said earlier, there's a -- as we work our way through the backlog, more of the orders that we received prior to those price actions that we took last year have been delivered now. And so we are seeing -- you'll see this when we publish our Q, about 1 point of benefit from price.

價格對我們來說是積極的。正如我們之前所說，有一個——當我們處理積壓訂單時，我們在去年採取的價格行動之前收到的更多訂單現在已經交付。所以我們看到 - 當我們發布我們的 Q 時，您會看到這一點，價格帶來大約 1 點的好處。

Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

元馬歇爾與摩根士丹利。

I was wondering if you could just kind of speak to the trends you're seeing within enterprise commercial service provider. You noted kind of seeing some digestion on the webscale, but just wanted to kind of get a sense if there's any different trends that you're seeing within those customer types.

我想知道您是否可以談談您在企業商業服務提供商中看到的趨勢。你注意到在網絡規模上看到了一些消化，但只是想了解一下你在這些客戶類型中是否看到了任何不同的趨勢。

And then maybe just as a follow-up question. Obviously, your customers have been going through cloud optimization efforts and kind of looking towards long-term architectures. Is there any changes kind of you distinguish from customers just on the outcomes or ways in which Cisco can kind of better help customers on that journey?

然後可能只是作為一個後續問題。顯然，您的客戶一直在努力進行雲優化，並在某種程度上尋求長期架構。您是否有任何改變與客戶區分開來，僅僅是在結果或方式上，思科可以更好地幫助客戶在此旅程中？

Yes. Thanks, Meta. So the trends by segment, I think if you think about the 3 factors that I described, one is customers needing to digest the shipments that we're shipping out. And secondly, as our lead times come down significantly, they don't need to order as far in advance. And if you think about who the customers are that have the most visibility and have done most of the advanced ordering, it's going to be large enterprises and service providers and webscale providers. And so from a segment perspective, I think the predominant issue we're seeing in the service provider space, which, by the way, contributed to 41% of the overall year-over-year decline, came from the (inaudible), which is less than 20% of our total revenue. So it had an outsized impact on our overall year-over-year decline.

是的。謝謝，梅塔。所以按細分市場的趨勢，我想如果你考慮我描述的 3 個因素，一個是客戶需要消化我們正在運送的貨物。其次，隨著我們的交貨時間顯著縮短，他們不需要提前那麼長時間訂購。而且，如果您考慮一下誰是最知名且完成了大部分高級訂購的客戶，那將是大型企業和服務提供商以及網絡規模提供商。因此，從細分市場的角度來看，我認為我們在服務提供商領域看到的主要問題，順便說一下，佔整體同比下降 41% 的原因是（聽不清），它不到我們總收入的 20%。因此，它對我們的整體同比下降產生了巨大影響。

I would say in the enterprise, there's large enterprises that are dealing with the same issues and are facing -- and are doing the same thing. They're digesting the equipment, and they're not needing to order as far ahead. We're also seeing the same things that you've heard from others. We're seeing elongated sales cycles. We're seeing more signatures required. But in general, we're getting the signatures, but they are taking a little longer.

我想說的是，在企業中，有一些大型企業正在處理同樣的問題，並且正在做同樣的事情。他們正在消化設備，他們不需要提前訂購。我們也看到了您從其他人那裡聽到的相同內容。我們看到銷售週期延長了。我們看到需要更多簽名。但總的來說，我們會收到簽名，但需要的時間要長一些。

And then as it relates to the technology trends and what our customers are focused on, the good news for us is that if you think about every customer on the planet is basically has 5 key priorities that we actually align to. One is they're re-architecting for this multi-cloud world. They're trying to figure out hybrid work. They're rebuilding their entire application strategy and rearchitecting their applications. They're rebuilding their cyber footprint because of all this distributed nature of what they're doing now, and they're focused on sustainability. And our technology plays across all of those very important areas, and we're working very hard with all of our customers in all of those spaces.

然後，由於它與技術趨勢和我們的客戶關注的重點有關，對我們來說，好消息是，如果您考慮地球上的每個客戶，基本上都有 5 個我們實際對齊的關鍵優先事項。一是他們正在為這個多雲世界重新架構。他們正試圖找出混合工作。他們正在重建他們的整個應用程序策略並重新設計他們的應用程序。由於他們現在所做的所有這些分佈式性質，他們正在重建他們的網絡足跡，並且他們專注於可持續性。我們的技術在所有這些非常重要的領域發揮作用，我們正在與所有這些領域的所有客戶一起努力工作。

And it's -- and then the final one, I think, that's on everybody's mind is artificial intelligence or Generative AI. And I would say in the webscale space, over the next 5 years, the market opportunity -- well, the entire market opportunity for AI infrastructure is estimated to be at $8.5 billion by '27, growing at about 40% CAGR from where it was. As I said in my opening comments, we're already installed as a networking infrastructure for some of these early AI models that the webscalers are running. If you think about where we were at the beginning of the webscale build-out a decade ago, I said many times on these calls that we were not prepared, and we got left out. And I would say this time for this AI infrastructure from a networking perspective, I believe we are better positioned than anybody else, and our teams have done a great job getting us into this position, and we see that as a massive opportunity.

它是——然後最後一個，我認為，每個人都在想的是人工智能或生成人工智能。我想說的是，在未來 5 年的網絡規模空間中，市場機會——嗯，人工智能基礎設施的整個市場機會估計到 27 年將達到 85 億美元，複合年增長率約為 40% .正如我在開場白中所說，我們已經作為網絡基礎設施安裝在網絡縮放器正在運行的一些早期人工智能模型中。如果你想一想十年前我們在網絡規模建設之初所處的位置，我在這些電話會議上多次說過我們沒有準備好，我們被排除在外了。這次我要說的是，從網絡的角度來看，對於這個 AI 基礎設施，我相信我們比其他任何人都處於更有利的位置，我們的團隊在讓我們進入這個位置方面做得很好，我們認為這是一個巨大的機會。

Sami Badri with Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的 Sami Badri。

All right. My question is on any kind of dynamics with the hyperscalers or cloud providers that led to any kind of product pushouts or delays of shipments or any kind of receipts that took longer delivery. Anything that was shifted? Do you guys see any kind of shifting of deliveries or request to ship deliveries in the quarter?

好的。我的問題是關於超大規模或云提供商的任何動態，導致任何類型的產品推出或發貨延遲或任何類型的收據需要更長時間的交付。有什麼被轉移的嗎？你們是否看到本季度有任何形式的交貨轉移或要求發貨？

No, we did not see any of that. In fact, we've been fulfilling all the request. There are certain projects that our teams have been working on that they have delayed, but those are around new orders, not around what's in the backlog. I think a lot of that is because there's so much focus now on building out the AI infrastructure for each of them, and so that's really what we see happening, and it's an area that we we've had lots of design wins. We continue to get design wins, and it's an area where we believe that we'll continue to gain market share.

不，我們沒有看到任何這些。事實上，我們一直在滿足所有的要求。我們的團隊一直在進行的某些項目被推遲了，但這些項目是關於新訂單的，而不是關於積壓的。我認為這在很大程度上是因為現在人們非常關注為他們每個人構建 AI 基礎設施，所以這就是我們看到的真實情況，而且我們在這個領域已經取得了很多設計勝利。我們繼續獲得設計勝利，這是我們相信我們將繼續獲得市場份額的領域。

Got it. And then one follow-up on gross margins. You talked about the modest growth in '24, and you also talked about EPS outpacing that. But maybe we could get an idea on gross margin trajectory. Should -- is there something we should be thinking as far as a glide path or an expansion range?

知道了。然後是關於毛利率的後續行動。你談到了 24 年的適度增長，你還談到每股收益超過了那個。但也許我們可以了解毛利率軌跡。應該——就滑行路徑或擴展範圍而言，我們應該考慮什麼嗎？

Yes, Sami, you see the midpoint of the guide we gave on gross margin for Q4. We've seen significant progress on gross margin through the year. I mean the product gross margin grew 240 basis points sequentially. That said, I think we're about to the point where we're lapping some of the benefits of the price increases. So there may be a little more room in gross margin sequentially. But if you look at the average for the year next year, of course, if you remember the first quarter of this year, we had a pretty significant impact in gross margin. So the average for the full year will definitely go up, right, as we see, if we keep it the same glide path through fiscal '24.

是的，薩米，你看到我們給出的第四季度毛利率指南的中點。全年我們在毛利率方面取得了顯著進步。我的意思是產品毛利率環比增長了 240 個基點。就是說，我認為我們即將達到我們正在享受價格上漲帶來的一些好處的地步。因此，毛利率環比可能會有更多空間。但是，如果你看一下明年的平均水平，當然，如果你還記得今年第一季度，我們對毛利率產生了相當大的影響。因此，如果我們在 24 財年保持相同的下滑路徑，全年的平均水平肯定會上升，正如我們所看到的那樣。

Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Matt Niknam。

First, just a follow-up on the fiscal '24. The modest growth, what sort of macro assumptions are you embedding into that preliminary outlook? And then just secondly, if I could just double click on security. If you can maybe talk about what's driving some of the softness or decelerating growth. I believe it was about 2% growth this past quarter and what you're anticipating in terms of maybe additional backlog release and whether that can maybe help some of those trends looking forward.

首先，只是對 24 財年的跟進。溫和的增長，你在初步展望中嵌入了什麼樣的宏觀假設？其次，如果我可以雙擊安全性。如果你能談談是什麼推動了一些疲軟或增長放緩。我相信上個季度的增長率約為 2%，您可能會發布額外的積壓訂單，以及這是否可以幫助其中一些趨勢向前看。

You want to take the first?

你想拿第一？

Yes. If we start on fiscal '24. I think there's a few things, Matt, to keep in mind before we start talking about macro. We're rolling into the year with a backlog that's roughly double than what would be normal. And that's really just a function of kind of the continuing supply constraints that are definitely improving, and that's why you see some of the strength that we've shown in this quarter and in our guide for next quarter, but they're not done. I do see those normalizing sometime midyear. By the second half of the year, we should be through most of the backlog.

是的。如果我們從 24 財年開始。在我們開始談論宏觀之前，我認為有幾件事要記住，馬特。進入新的一年，我們的積壓工作量大約是正常水平的兩倍。這實際上只是持續供應限制的一種功能，這種限制肯定會有所改善，這就是為什麼你會看到我們在本季度和下個季度的指南中展示的一些實力，但它們還沒有完成。我確實看到那些在年中的某個時候正常化。到今年下半年，我們應該會處理完大部分積壓的工作。

The second is the absorption factor. We think that with the lead times normalizing and working through the backlog, the absorption factor also probably gets itself work through to next year by around midyear of next year. So -- but when you roll into the year with $32 billion of RPO, which is where we are today, $17 billion of that being current with almost $24 billion of ARR, which drives a huge renewal opportunity for us next year and with backlog, it takes a lot of pressure off of what needs to happen from a macro standpoint.

第二個是吸收係數。我們認為，隨著交貨時間正常化並解決積壓問題，吸收係數也可能在明年年中左右自行解決到明年。所以 - 但是當你以 320 億美元的 RPO 進入這一年時，這就是我們今天的情況，其中 170 億美元是當前的，近 240 億美元的 ARR，這為我們明年帶來了巨大的更新機會和積壓，從宏觀的角度來看，它減輕了需要發生的事情的很大壓力。

And then I'd say on the security front, I think I've been -- we've talked about this on several calls, and we've hired new leadership team. The team is doing a phenomenal job. We had a big announcement recently at RSA where we launched an XDR platform that actually is one of the first that actually ingests data from our competitors and our partners across the industry. And at Cisco Live in a couple of weeks, we're going to make the next wave of announcements around some new innovation. And so I think we've acknowledged that we needed to get this -- these new technologies out, and I think that they're coming out with unique differentiation to Cisco. And I think that's over the next -- when you look out sort of the second half of next fiscal year, I think you'll see security really be accelerating into a growth driver for us.

然後我會說在安全方面，我想我已經 - 我們已經在幾個電話中討論過這個問題，並且我們已經聘請了新的領導團隊。該團隊做得非常出色。我們最近在 RSA 上發布了一個重大公告，我們推出了一個 XDR 平台，該平台實際上是第一個實際從我們的競爭對手和我們的行業合作夥伴那裡獲取數據的平台之一。在幾週後的 Cisco Live 上，我們將圍繞一些新的創新發布下一波公告。因此，我認為我們已經承認我們需要推出這些新技術，而且我認為它們的推出與思科具有獨特的差異化。我認為這是下一個——當你展望下一個財政年度的下半年時，我認為你會看到安全確實正在加速成為我們的增長動力。

Mike Ng, you may go ahead from Goldman Sachs.

Mike Ng，你可以從高盛繼續。

I just have 2. First, could you just talk a little bit about how you're thinking about inventory levels on the balance sheet going forward? And if you have any information you could share with us around purchase commitments as well? And then I have a quick follow-up.

我只有 2 個。首先，您能否談談您如何看待未來資產負債表上的庫存水平？如果您有任何信息可以與我們分享有關購買承諾的信息？然後我有一個快速跟進。

Sure, Michael. If you look at -- you really have to look at the sum of those 2 collectively because purchase commitments are there, they're firm commitments that we've made to take on inventory. So the line between what's in purchase commitments and what's actually on our balance sheet is pretty great. When you add those 2 together and look back over the last 3 quarters, we've worked down about $3 billion worth of the combination of inventory on hand and the purchase commitment. So I think the team has done a really nice job balancing, ensuring we have supply to continue to work our way through the backlog, and at the same time, minimizing the risk that we have too much inventory.

當然，邁克爾。如果你看 - 你真的必須一起看這兩個的總和，因為那裡有購買承諾，它們是我們為庫存做出的堅定承諾。因此，購買承諾中的內容與我們資產負債表上的實際內容之間的界限非常大。當您將這 2 個加在一起並回顧過去 3 個季度時，我們已經減少了價值約 30 億美元的手頭庫存和採購承諾。因此，我認為團隊在平衡方面做得非常好，確保我們有供應繼續解決積壓問題，同時最大限度地降低庫存過多的風險。

Great. Excellent. And then second, it was encouraging to hear about the expectation to return to a normal seasonality in sequential orders starting next quarter. I was just wondering if you could provide a little bit more texture around those expectations. Is the absorption of early product shipments that may have impacted the sequential this quarter going to be largely done by next? Is it just the easier comps? Any thoughts there would be helpful.

偉大的。出色的。其次，聽到下個季度開始的連續訂單恢復正常季節性的預期令人鼓舞。我只是想知道您是否可以圍繞這些期望提供更多的細節。可能影響本季度順序的早期產品出貨量的吸收是否會在下一個季度完成？它只是更容易的組合嗎？任何想法都會有所幫助。

Thanks, Michael. Well, when I said that Q4, we see normal sequentials from Q3, that just means they're in the range of the historical ranges that we've seen from high to low. So it's not like an anomaly. It's not going to be significantly higher or significantly lower based on what we see today. We think that the digestion issue and the lead time stuff, we're estimating right now that most of that stuff gets washed out by the middle of next fiscal year. So we think to really get back to where you see normalized sort of ordering patterns and normalized backlog, we think that's probably going to be the second half of fiscal '24.

謝謝，邁克爾。好吧，當我說第四季度時，我們看到第三季度的正常序列，這只是意味著它們處於我們從高到低看到的歷史範圍內。所以這不像是異常現象。根據我們今天看到的情況，它不會顯著升高或顯著降低。我們認為消化問題和交貨時間問題，我們現在估計大部分這些問題都會在下一個財政年度中期被淘汰。因此，我們認為要真正回到您看到標準化排序模式和標準化積壓的地方，我們認為這可能是 24 財年的下半年。

Amit Daryanani from Evercore.

來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Perfect. Glad I sneaked in here. I guess I have 2 as well. Maybe first on the hyperscale side. Chuck, you talked about seeing gains on the AI infrastructure side. Can you sort of touch on where are you seeing these wins? Is it sort of data center switching or (inaudible) or something else? And then are these sort of net new applications getting (inaudible) just any color there would be helpful.

完美的。很高興我偷偷溜進了這裡。我想我也有2個。也許首先是在超大規模方面。 Chuck，你談到在 AI 基礎設施方面看到收益。你能談談你在哪裡看到這些勝利嗎？它是某種數據中心交換還是（聽不清）或其他什麼？然後這些淨新應用程序獲得（聽不清）任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. So on a specific hyperscaler situation, we've been winning and displacing or becoming a second vendor in existing architectures for the last couple of years. And then we're winning new franchises around. These AI networks, in many cases, are brand new, and we're actually winning some of them as well. And so as you think about AI, I think it's important to understand the underlying technology.

是的。因此，在特定的超大規模情況下，我們在過去幾年中一直在贏得併取代或成為現有架構中的第二家供應商。然後我們正在贏得新的特許經營權。在許多情況下，這些人工智能網絡是全新的，我們實際上也贏得了其中一些。所以當你想到人工智能時，我認為了解底層技術很重要。

And just quickly, today, what's largely used is something called InfiniBand. And we see that our -- the webscalers are -- they have a desire to move to Ethernet and then further to this new technology that we actually have (inaudible). And we support both Ethernet and (inaudible), and we think we're leading in this space. And it actually increases the -- I'd say, makes these networks run more effectively and more efficiently. And so those are some of the reasons we're winning. But it's just -- it's a very big opportunity over the next 5, 6, 7 years.

很快，今天，被廣泛使用的是一種叫做 InfiniBand 的東西。我們看到我們的 - webscalers - 他們希望轉向以太網，然後進一步轉向我們實際擁有的這項新技術（聽不清）。我們同時支持以太網和（聽不清），我們認為我們在這個領域處於領先地位。它實際上增加了——我想說的是，使這些網絡運行得更有效、更高效。所以這些就是我們獲勝的一些原因。但這只是 - 這是未來 5、6、7 年的一個非常大的機會。

Got it. And then if I could just maybe go back to this order discussion. I think everyone seems to be surprised on orders being down 22% despite the compares getting easier, and I get your sequential commentary fairly well. But perhaps you can just talk about -- you compared that you get really easy for the next few quarters. So do you feel like the down 22% is the trough and the declines may still be there but they sort of ease up until you get to the back half? Or how do you think about the order trajectory over the next few quarters and maybe the magnitude of it?

知道了。然後，如果我可以回到這個訂單討論。我認為每個人似乎都對訂單下降 22% 感到驚訝，儘管比較變得更容易了，我對你的順序評論相當了解。但也許你可以談談——你比較了在接下來的幾個季度裡你會變得非常輕鬆。所以你覺得下降 22% 是谷底嗎，下降可能仍然存在，但在你進入後半部分之前它們會有所緩和？或者您如何看待未來幾個季度的訂單軌跡以及它的規模？

Yes, it's interesting. Back 4, 5, 6 quarters ago, I said we see this huge bookings and revenues running at a much lower level. And I said there will be an inflection point, where revenue will run much higher than bookings. But it's -- so it's playing out exactly as we expected. Now there is the added dynamic of sort of the macro uncertainty that people are certainly concerned about.

是的，這很有趣。回到 4、5、6 個季度前，我說過我們看到這個巨大的預訂和收入運行在一個低得多的水平。我說過會有一個拐點，收入將比預訂量高得多。但它 - 所以它完全按照我們的預期進行。現在，人們當然擔心的是宏觀不確定性的增加動態。

What we're looking for is to see, again, if there is a significant shift in momentum from one quarter to the next, which is one of the sequential thing we watch. We watched it for 20 years, and it really helps us see what's going on. And I think we're just going to have to -- what we're telling you right now is based on what we see today. And when we look out at FY '24 and the commentary we made about showing positive growth on a high growth year that we're having this year, it's based on, as Scott said, on backlog, on RPO, and it's based on the visibility that our sales teams have right now and what their expectations are for orders over the next 12 months.

我們正在尋找的是再次看到從一個季度到下一個季度的勢頭是否有重大轉變，這是我們觀察的連續事件之一。我們觀察了 20 年，它確實幫助我們了解正在發生的事情。而且我認為我們將不得不——我們現在告訴你的是基於我們今天所看到的。當我們回顧 24 財年以及我們關於在今年高增長的一年中實現正增長的評論時，正如斯科特所說，它基於積壓，基於 RPO，並且基於我們的銷售團隊現在擁有的可見性以及他們對未來 12 個月訂單的期望。

Yes. Just to add a little bit to that, Amit, a little bit more to that. When you add up between what will be current RPO that will turn into revenue during fiscal '24, plus the backlog normalizing, which will be a tailwind, plus the renewal opportunity of what's not in RPO today, but sitting in ARR today, round number is somewhere between 40% and 50% of that revenue for next year is contained in those 3 lines, right? It's either orders that are in-house and sitting in RPO or sitting in backlog or renewal opportunities that we have a chance to go out and renew this year. So when I said it takes a lot of pressure off of macro, it's a strong position to be in, rolling into next year with that much of it either already in-house or sitting as renewal opportunities for us.

是的。阿米特，再補充一點。當您將當前的 RPO 加起來，這將在 24 財年期間轉化為收入，加上積壓正常化，這將是順風，再加上今天 RPO 中沒有但今天坐在 ARR 中的更新機會，輪數明年收入的 40% 到 50% 包含在這 3 行中，對嗎？今年我們有機會出去更新的是內部訂單和 RPO 中的訂單，或者是積壓或更新機會中的訂單。因此，當我說它減輕了宏觀的很大壓力時，它處於一個有利的位置，進入明年，其中大部分已經在內部，或者作為我們的更新機會。

That's a really good data point, Scott. And I think if you go back 8 or 10 years ago, in any given quarter, we would have to take orders for as much as 75% of our revenue in the quarter. And that's certainly not the case today, so that actually helps us as we (inaudible).

這是一個非常好的數據點，斯科特。而且我認為，如果你回到 8 或 10 年前，在任何給定的季度，我們將不得不接受該季度高達 75% 的收入的訂單。今天肯定不是這種情況，所以這實際上對我們（聽不清）有幫助。

All right. Great. And Chuck, I'll turn it over to you.

好的。偉大的。查克，我會把它交給你。

Thanks, Marilyn. In closing, I want to thank everybody for spending time with us today, first of all. I'm super proud of our results. I think our teams are executing very well. I'm proud of the record results that we had this quarter. I'm also really proud that we're seeing what we also said, which is the market share gains come through that we had talked about. We've been asked on several calls about market share. And in the reports that we expect to be coming out very soon, we have meaningful share gains that, I think, you'll see in campus switching, SD branch routing, wireless LAN, SP routing, some of our absolute biggest markets, which reflect the relevance of our technology to our customers right now. I'm really proud that looking at FY '24, we still see growth on a strong double-digit growth year and also growing earnings per share faster than we are revenue. And our teams are committed to delivering on our commitments, and we look forward to spending time with you 90 days from now. So thanks for being with us.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮。最後，首先，我要感謝大家今天花時間和我們在一起。我為我們的結果感到超級自豪。我認為我們的團隊執行得很好。我為本季度創紀錄的業績感到自豪。我也很自豪我們看到了我們也說過的話，那就是我們談到的市場份額增長。我們在幾次電話會議上都被問及市場份額。在我們預計很快會發布的報告中，我認為您會在園區交換、SD 分支路由、無線 LAN、SP 路由等我們絕對最大的一些市場中看到有意義的份額增長，反映我們技術與客戶的相關性。我真的很自豪，展望 24 財年，我們仍然看到強勁的兩位數增長年度增長，而且每股收益的增長速度快於我們的收入增長速度。我們的團隊致力於兌現我們的承諾，我們期待從現在起 90 天與您共度時光。所以感謝你和我們在一起。

All right. Thanks, Chuck. And to close this out, Cisco's next quarterly earnings conference call, which will reflect our fiscal year 2023 fourth quarter and fiscal 2023 results will be on Wednesday, August 16, 2023 at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

好的。謝謝，查克。為了結束這一點，思科將於美國東部時間 2023 年 8 月 16 日星期三下午 1:30 舉行下一次季度收益電話會議，這將反映我們 2023 財年第四季度和 2023 財年的業績。太平洋時間下午 4:30東部時間。

This concludes today's call. If you have any further questions, feel free to reach out to the Cisco Investor Relations department, and we thank you very much for joining the call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫思科投資者關係部門，我們非常感謝您加入電話會議。

And thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (800) 395-6236. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369-3270. This concludes today's call. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想完整收聽電話，可以致電 (800) 395-6236。對於來自美國境外的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369-3270。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連接。