思科 (CSCO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2023 財年第三季財務業績電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製中。如果有異議可以斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想介紹投資者關係主管瑪麗蓮莫拉 (Marilyn Mora)。女士，您可以開始了。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. And I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO.

歡迎大家參加思科 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係主管瑪麗蓮莫拉 (Marilyn Mora)。和我一起出席的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Chuck Robbins；以及我們的財務長 Scott Herren。

By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call. Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheet, cash flow statements and other financial information can be found in the Financial Information section of the Investor Relations website. Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders, unless stated otherwise. All comparisons made throughout this call will be made on a year-over-year basis.

現在，您應該已經看到我們的收益新聞稿了。電話會議結束後，我們將在網站的「投資者關係」部分提供相應的網路廣播和幻燈片，其中包括補充資訊。損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節資訊、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務資訊可在投資者關係網站的財務資訊部分找到。在整個電話會議過程中，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，並且我們將從收入方面討論產品結果，從產品訂單方面討論地理和客戶結果，除非另有說明。本次電話會議中的所有比較都將以同比為基礎進行。

The matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2023. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

我們今天將要討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2023 財年第四季和全年提供的指引。它們受我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細討論的風險和不確定性的影響，特別是最新的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格報告，這些報告確定了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的重要風險因素。關於指導，請參閱本次電話會議附帶的幻燈片和新聞稿以了解更多詳細資訊。除非透過明確的公開揭露，否則思科不會對本季的財務指引發表評論。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Chuck.

現在，我將把發言權交給查克。

Thank you, Marilyn, and hope you all are doing well. This was another strong quarter for us, and I'm proud of what our teams have achieved. In Q3, we delivered our strongest ever revenue, non-GAAP income, non-GAAP EPS and operating cash flow. We also continued to successfully execute on our strategy, driving solid growth in ARR to nearly $24 billion and posting double-digit growth in subscription and software revenues. Based on our strong Q3 performance, we are once again raising our fiscal 2023 outlook for revenue and earnings per share, which Scott will cover shortly. As we look ahead to fiscal year '24, we expect to see modest revenue growth even with the tough compare of double-digit growth in fiscal year '23.

謝謝你，瑪麗蓮，希望你們一切都好。這對我們來說又是一個強勁的季度，我為我們的團隊所取得的成就感到自豪。第三季度，我們實現了有史以來最強勁的收入、非公認會計準則收入、非公認會計準則每股收益和營運現金流。我們也持續成功執行我們的策略，推動 ARR 穩健成長至近 240 億美元，並實現訂閱和軟體收入的兩位數成長。基於我們強勁的第三季業績，我們再次上調了 2023 財年的營收和每股盈餘預期，Scott 很快就會對此進行介紹。展望24財年，我們預期即使與23財年的兩位數成長相比，營收仍將維持適度成長。

Now before I go through our Q3 performance, I'd like to discuss 3 key areas that will help drive our long-term growth. First, we are pleased with continued success in our movement towards more subscriptions and recurring revenue. In Q3, we delivered 18% growth in software revenues. We also have $32 billion in remaining performance obligations, and we expect to see this momentum accelerate.

現在，在介紹我們第三季的業績之前，我想討論一下有助於推動我們長期成長的三個關鍵領域。首先，我們對在增加訂閱量和增加經常性收入方面持續取得的成功感到高興。第三季度，我們的軟體收入成長了 18%。我們還有 320 億美元的剩餘履約義務，我們預計這股勢頭將會加速。

Second, security continues to be an enormous opportunity for us. As you've heard me say, we've revamped our strategy, put a world-class team in place and made this a top priority for the company. Over the coming quarters, you will see new innovations in this space, building on our strong Cisco Security Cloud strategy, including at Cisco Live next month. Based on the rapid progress we are making, we are optimistic about our opportunity in this fast-growing market.

第二，安全對我們來說仍然是一個巨大的機會。正如你們聽到我所說的，我們已經修改了我們的策略，組建了一支世界一流的團隊，並將此作為公司的首要任務。在接下來的幾個季度中，您將看到該領域的新創新，這些創新將建立在我們強大的思科安全雲端策略之上，包括下個月的思科直播。基於我們取得的快速進展，我們對這個快速成長的市場中的機會感到樂觀。

And third, Generative AI and cloud. At Cisco, we already use predictive AI extensively across our portfolio. In addition, our core networking technology is already powering some of the leading AI models run by hyperscalers around the world. We have also moved rapidly to leverage Generative AI capabilities in our own products, which you'll hear more about in the next few weeks and beyond, starting at Cisco Live.

第三，生成人工智慧和雲端。在思科，我們已經在我們的產品組合中廣泛使用預測性人工智慧。此外，我們的核心網路技術已為全球超大規模企業運行的一些領先的人工智慧模型提供支援。我們也迅速採取行動，在我們自己的產品中利用生成式人工智慧功能，從 Cisco Live 開始，您將在接下來的幾週及以後聽到更多有關此內容的資訊。

Now let me discuss our quarterly performance. As I mentioned, in Q3, we delivered our highest ever quarterly revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share, exceeding the high end of our guidance range. We saw healthy margins and record non-GAAP net income, which reflect our strong operating discipline. All of this contributed to record operating cash flow in Q3. As we expected, the actions we took to mitigate supply constraints have continued to pay off. Price realization, as a result of the actions we put in place last year, helped to offset inflationary pressures. Our disciplined cost management enabled us to continue to expand gross margins as well as prioritize our strategic investments to drive long-term growth.

現在讓我來討論一下我們的季度業績。正如我所提到的，在第三季度，我們實現了有史以來最高的季度收入和非公認會計準則每股收益，超過了我們預期範圍的高端。我們看到了健康的利潤率和創紀錄的非公認會計準則淨收入，這反映了我們強大的經營紀律。所有這些都促成了第三季創紀錄的經營現金流。正如我們預期的那樣，我們為緩解供應限製而採取的行動繼續取得成效。由於我們去年採取的行動，價格實現有助於抵銷通膨壓力。我們嚴格的成本管理使我們能夠繼續擴大毛利率，並優先考慮我們的策略投資以推動長期成長。

As it relates to customer demand, it is being shaped by a few factors that we believe are impacting the entire industry. First, our increase in product shipments is often leading customers and partners to absorb these shipments prior to placing new orders. Second, the significant reduction in product lead times reduces the need for extensive advanced ordering by our customers. And third, macroeconomic conditions. With this said, in our discussions with customers, such as the ones we had at our most recent Global Customer Advisory Board event earlier this month, they continue to invest in key technologies that are core to their overall strategies.

就客戶需求而言，我們認為它受到一些影響整個行業的因素的影響。首先，我們產品出貨量的增加通常會導致客戶和合作夥伴在下新訂單之前吸收這些出貨量。其次，產品交付週期的大幅縮短減少了客戶大量提前訂購的需要。第三，宏觀經濟狀況。話雖如此，在我們與客戶的討論中，例如本月早些時候我們最近舉行的全球客戶顧問委員會活動上的討論，他們繼續投資於對其整體戰略至關重要的關鍵技術。

As we previously shared, given the unprecedented demand for our technology during the pandemic, we believe sequential order rates are far more informative than year-over-year rates. Just like the prior 2 quarters, our sequentials in Q3 were in general alignment with historical ranges coming in 1 point below the historical range. In addition, our order cancellation rates also remained well below historical levels, indicating the strength of our backlog and portfolio. In terms of our backlog, we continue to expect that we will end the fiscal year with roughly double our normal product backlog.

正如我們之前所分享的，鑑於疫情期間對我們技術的空前需求，我們認為連續訂單率比同比增長更有參考價值。與前兩個季度一樣，我們第三季的環比成長與歷史範圍基本一致，比歷史範圍低 1 個點。此外，我們的訂單取消率也遠低於歷史水平，這表明我們的積壓訂單和產品組合實力雄厚。就我們的積壓訂單而言，我們仍然預計本財年結束時我們的產品積壓訂單量將達到正常水平的兩倍左右。

Now let me share a bit more detail about some of our newest innovations. Regarding our webscale customers, they are currently consuming and implementing their prior significant technology investments. There remains a huge growth opportunity across all these customers, enabled by our portfolio of hardware, software, silicon and systems. We already see early design wins in AI infrastructure and continue to see other wins and competitive displacements, leading to continued share gain in this space.

現在讓我分享一些有關我們的最新創新的更多細節。對於我們的網路規模客戶，他們目前正在消費和實施他們先前的重大技術投資。由於我們的硬體、軟體、矽片和系統產品組合，所有這些客戶都擁有巨大的成長機會。我們已經看到人工智慧基礎設施早期設計的勝利，並繼續看到其他勝利和競爭取代，從而導致該領域的份額持續增長。

In our networking business, we remain focused on building solutions that drive a higher return on investment and sustainability. In March, we introduced 800-gig capability to our Cisco 8000 platform with the industry's first 28.8 terabit line card, powered by Cisco Silicon One ASICs and pluggable optics. This new platform can deliver up to 68% power savings and 83% space savings compared to 400-gig solutions, helping to reduce operational costs and carbon emissions as well as enabling the densification of networks to support use cases such as AIML and IoT. This continues to drive positive customer feedback, and we're excited about this opportunity.

在我們的網路業務中，我們仍然專注於建立能夠提高投資回報和永續性的解決方案。今年 3 月，我們為思科 8000 平台引入了 800 千兆容量，這是業界首款 28.8 太比特線卡，由思科 Silicon One ASIC 和可插拔光學元件提供支援。與 400 千兆解決方案相比，該新平台可節省高達 68% 的電力和 83% 的空間，有助於降低營運成本和碳排放，並實現網路密集化以支援 AIML 和物聯網等用例。這將繼續推動積極的客戶回饋，我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。

To complement our own innovations, in Q3, we closed the acquisition of Valtix, which is aligned to our security cloud vision for providing protection across multi-cloud environments with a seamless experience. We also announced our intent to acquire 2 companies that further extend our capabilities in cloud, security and full stack observability.

為了補充我們自己的創新，我們在第三季度完成了對 Valtix 的收購，這與我們的安全雲願景相一致，即在多雲環境中提供無縫體驗的保護。我們也宣布了收購兩家公司的意向，以進一步擴展我們在雲端、安全性和全端可觀察性方面的能力。

Before I close, I also want to share once again how incredibly proud I am that for the third year in a row, we were ranked #1 in the U.S. on Fortune Magazine's 100 Best Companies to work for. And in 14 other countries around the world, we were also ranked as the #1 Great Place to Work, reflecting Cisco's position as a premier destination for top talent worldwide.

在結束之前，我還想再次分享我的無比自豪，因為我們連續第三年在《財星》雜誌評選的 100 家最適合工作的公司中名列第一。在全球其他 14 個國家/地區，我們也被評為「最佳工作場所」第一名，體現了思科作為全球頂尖人才首選目的地的地位。

To summarize, our ability to navigate uncertainty was demonstrated by our record results. Our performance remains solid and reflects the strength of our strategy and the benefits from the investments we've made over the last several years. Our operational discipline and excellence in execution are driving record earnings, cash flow and shareholder value.

總而言之，我們的創紀錄業績證明了我們應對不確定性的能力。我們的業績依然穩健，反映了我們策略的實力以及過去幾年投資的收益。我們的營運紀律和卓越的執行力正在推動創紀錄的收益、現金流和股東價值。

As we look towards Q4 and fiscal year '24, I'd like to share a few observations. As I mentioned earlier, as of now, we see modest revenue growth in fiscal year '24 on top of our strong performance in fiscal year '23. You can also expect us to grow earnings per share at a higher rate than revenue in Q4 fiscal year '23 and full year fiscal year '24, reflecting improving gross margins and strong expense management. Lastly, we expect to continue our stock buybacks at the higher levels you've seen over the last 2 quarters.

展望第四季和24財年，我想分享一些觀察。正如我之前提到的，截至目前，我們預計在 2023 財年表現強勁的基礎上，2024 財年的營收將能適度成長。您也可以預期，我們在 23 財年第四季和 24 財年全年的每股盈餘成長率將高於營收成長率，這反映出毛利率的提高和強大的費用管理。最後，我們預計將繼續以過去兩季以來的較高水準進行股票回購。

I'd like to thank our teams for their focus and execution and our customers and partners for the trust they placed in us. As cloud, AI and security continue to scale, Cisco's long-established leadership in networking and the breadth of our portfolio, give me the confidence in our ability to capture the many opportunities ahead.

我要感謝我們團隊的專注和執行力，以及客戶和合作夥伴對我們的信任。隨著雲端、人工智慧和安全的不斷擴展，思科在網路領域的長期領導地位和我們產品組合的廣度使我相信我們有能力抓住未來的眾多機會。

I'll now turn it over to Scott.

現在我將把發言權交給史考特。

Thanks, Chuck. We delivered a record quarter that exceeded both our top and bottom line expectations driven by focused execution, continued business transformation and the actions we've taken over the last several quarters to mitigate supply issues. We reported our strongest ever revenue, non-GAAP income, non-GAAP earnings per share and operating cash flow for the quarter. Total revenue was $14.6 billion, up 14% year-on-year. Non-GAAP net income was $4.1 billion. And non-GAAP earnings per share was $1, up 15%.

謝謝，查克。我們實現了創紀錄的季度業績，超出了我們的頂線和底線預期，這得益於專注的執行、持續的業務轉型以及過去幾個季度為緩解供應問題而採取的行動。我們報告了本季有史以來最強勁的收入、非公認會計準則收入、非公認會計準則每股收益和營運現金流。總收入為146億美元，年增14%。非公認會計準則淨收入為 41 億美元。非公認會計準則每股收益為 1 美元，成長 15%。

Looking at our Q3 revenue in more detail. Total product revenue was $11.1 billion, up 17%. And service revenue was $3.5 billion, up 3%. Within product revenue, Secure Agile Networks, our largest business, was very strong, up 29%. Switching revenue had strong double-digit growth with strength in both campus and data center switching driven by our Catalyst 9000, Meraki and Nexus 9000 offerings. Enterprise routing growth was driven primarily by strength in our Catalyst 8000 Series routers, SD-WAN and IoT routing. And wireless also had very strong double-digit growth with strength driven by our WiFi 6 products and Meraki wireless offerings.

更詳細地了解我們的第三季收入。總產品收入為 111 億美元，成長 17%。服務收入為 35 億美元，成長 3%。在產品收入方面，我們最大的業務 Secure Agile Networks 表現非常強勁，成長了 29%。交換收入實現了強勁的兩位數成長，其中校園交換和資料中心交換均表現強勁，這得益於我們的 Catalyst 9000、Meraki 和 Nexus 9000 產品。企業路由的成長主要得益於我們的 Catalyst 8000 系列路由器、SD-WAN 和 IoT 路由的強勁表現。無線業務也實現了強勁的兩位數成長，這主要得益於我們的 WiFi 6 產品和 Meraki 無線產品。

Internet for the future was up 5%, driven by growth in our core routing products, including very strong growth in our Cisco 8000 offering. We also saw double-digit growth in webscale. Collaboration was down 13% driven by declines in collaboration devices and meetings, offset slightly by growth in calling and contact center. End-to-end security was up 2% driven by our Unified Threat Management and Zero Trust offerings. And optimized application experiences was up 12% driven by growth across the portfolio, including double-digit growth in ThousandEyes.

未來網路成長了 5%，這得益於我們核心路由產品的成長，其中包括思科 8000 產品的強勁成長。我們也看到網路規模實現了兩位數的成長。由於協作設備和會議數量的下降，協作量下降了 13%，但呼叫和聯絡中心的成長略微抵消了這種影響。在我們的統一威脅管理和零信任產品的推動下，端到端安全性提高了 2%。優化的應用體驗成長了 12%，這得益於整個產品組合的成長，其中 ThousandEyes 實現了兩位數的成長。

We continue to make progress on our transformation metrics as we shift our business to more recurring revenue-based offerings driven by higher levels of software and subscriptions. We saw solid performance of our ARR of $23.8 billion, which increased 6% with product ARR growth of 10%. Total software revenue was $4.3 billion, an increase of 18%, with software subscription revenue up 17%. 82% of software revenues were subscription-based.

隨著我們將業務轉向由更高水準的軟體和訂閱驅動的更多基於經常性收入的產品，我們在轉型指標方面繼續取得進展。我們的 ARR 表現穩健，達到 238 億美元，成長 6%，產品 ARR 成長 10%。總軟體營收為 43 億美元，成長 18%，其中軟體訂閱收入成長 17%。 82%的軟體收入來自訂閱。

We continue to have an elevated level of software orders and our product backlog. Total subscription revenue was $6.1 billion, an increase of 11%. RPO was $32.1 billion, up 6%, with product RPO increasing 9% and service RPO increasing 4%. And total short-term RPO grew to $16.9 billion.

我們的軟體訂單和產品積壓量持續增加。總訂閱收入為 61 億美元，成長 11%。 RPO 為 321 億美元，成長 6%，其中產品 RPO 成長 9%，服務 RPO 成長 4%。短期RPO總額成長至169億美元。

Total product orders were down 23% driven by the 3 factors Chuck pointed out earlier. The aging of our backlog has improved significantly, and we continue to have very low cancellation, rates, reflecting the quality of our past orders and critical nature of our product portfolio. Total non-GAAP gross margin came in at 65.2%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and down 10 basis points year-over-year. Product gross margin was 64.5%, up 240 basis points sequentially and up 40 basis points year-over-year. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by positive pricing and favorable product mix. This was partially offset by higher component and other costs. Services gross margin was 67.3%, down 160 basis points year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating margin was at the high end of our guidance range at 33.9%, down 80 basis points year-over-year and up 140 basis points sequentially.

由於查克先前指出的三個因素，產品訂​​單總量下降了 23%。我們的積壓訂單的時效性已顯著改善，並且我們的取消率仍然很低，這反映了我們過去訂單的品質和我們產品組合的關鍵性。非公認會計準則總毛利率為 65.2%，超出我們預期範圍的高端，較去年同期下降 10 個基點。產品毛利率為64.5%，較上一季上升240個基點，較去年同期上升40個基點。年比成長主要得益於積極的定價和有利的產品組合。這被更高的零件和其他成本部分抵消。服務毛利率為67.3%，較去年同期下降160個基點。非公認會計準則營業利潤率為 33.9%，處於我們預期範圍的高端，較去年同期下降 80 個基點，較上季上升 140 個基點。

Backlog for both our hardware and software products continues to significantly exceed historical levels. Due to an improving supply situation and our focused execution, we were able to accelerate shipments of our aged backlog to meet customer needs, which resulted in a decline in backlog level sequentially and year-over-year. We continue to expect to exit the year with roughly double our normal product backlog. And just a reminder, backlog is not included as part of our $32 billion in remaining performance obligations. Combined, our significant product backlog and RPO continued to provide great visibility to our top line as we approach fiscal year '24.

我們的硬體和軟體產品的積壓訂單繼續大幅超過歷史水準。由於供應情況的改善和我們集中執行，我們得以加快陳舊積壓訂單的發貨，以滿足客戶需求，這導致積壓訂單水平環比和同比均有所下降。我們預計今年年底我們的產品積壓量將達到正常水平的兩倍左右。需要提醒的是，積壓訂單不包含在我們 320 億美元剩餘履約義務中。綜合起來，隨著​​我們接近 24 財年，我們大量的產品積壓和 RPO 繼續為我們的營收提供良好的可視性。

Shifting to the balance sheet. We ended Q3 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $23.3 billion. We had record operating cash flow for the quarter of $5.2 billion, up 43% year-over-year driven primarily by strong collections and the deferral of our Q3 federal tax payment due to the IRS tax relief related to the California floods earlier this year. The federal tax payment deferral had a positive impact of approximately 20 points of growth year-over-year on Q3 operating cash flow. This recent IRS relief postponed our remaining current year federal income tax payment deadlines until Q1 of our fiscal '24.

轉向資產負債表。截至第三季末，我們的現金、現金等價物及投資總額為 233 億美元。本季我們的營業現金流創歷史新高，達到 52 億美元，比去年同期增長 43%，這主要得益於強勁的收款額，以及由於今年早些時候加州洪水相關的國稅局稅收減免而推遲了第三季度的聯邦稅繳納。聯邦稅款延期繳納對第三季經營現金流產生了積極影響，年增約 20 個百分點。美國國稅局最近的減免將我們本年度剩餘的聯邦所得稅繳納期限推遲到了 24 財年第一季。

In line with our disciplined capital allocation strategy and commitment to return capital, we returned $2.9 billion to shareholders during the quarter, which was comprised of $1.6 billion for our quarterly cash dividend and $1.3 billion of share repurchases. We ended the quarter with $12.2 billion in remaining stock purchase authorization. Year-to-date, we've returned a total of $7.7 billion via cash dividends and share repurchases. This reinforces our confidence in the strength and stability of our ongoing cash flows.

根據我們嚴謹的資本配置策略和回報資本的承諾，我們在本季向股東返還了 29 億美元，其中包括 16 億美元的季度現金股利和 13 億美元的股票回購。本季結束時，我們剩餘的股票購買授權金額為 122 億美元。今年迄今為止，我們透過現金股利和股票回購共返還了 77 億美元。這增強了我們對持續現金流的強度和穩定性的信心。

We continue to invest organically and inorganically in our innovation pipeline. During Q3, we announced and closed the acquisition of Valtix, which further strengthens our security portfolio. This investment is consistent with our strategy of complementing our internal innovation in R&D with targeted strategic M&A.

我們將繼續以有機和無機的方式投資於我們的創新管道。在第三季度，我們宣布並完成了對 Valtix 的收購，這進一步增強了我們的安全產品組合。這項投資符合我們透過有針對性的策略併購補充內部研發創新的策略。

To summarize, we had a strong quarter, delivering record top line growth, non-GAAP profitability and cash flow. We continue to make progress on our business model shift to more recurring revenue while making strategic investments in innovation to capitalize on our significant growth opportunities.

總而言之，我們本季表現強勁，實現了創紀錄的營收成長、非公認會計準則獲利能力和現金流。我們繼續在業務模式轉向更多經常性收入方面取得進展，同時對創新進行策略性投資，以利用我們巨大的成長機會。

Turning now to our guidance. For fiscal Q4, our guidance is, we expect revenue growth to be in the range of 14% to 16%. We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 64.5% to 65.5%, and our non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 34% to 35%. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $1.05 to $1.07.

現在轉向我們的指導。對於第四財季，我們預計營收成長將在 14% 至 16% 之間。我們預計非公認會計準則毛利率將在 64.5% 至 65.5% 之間，非公認會計準則營業利潤率預計將在 34% 至 35% 之間。非公認會計準則每股收益預計在 1.05 美元至 1.07 美元之間。

As Chuck mentioned, we are yet again raising our fiscal year guidance for fiscal '23, which is as follows. We expect revenue growth to be in the range of 10% to 10.5% year-on-year. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $3.80 to $3.82. In both our Q4 and full year guidance, we're assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 19%.

正如查克所提到的，我們再次提高了 23 財年的財年指導，具體如下。我們預計收入成長率將在 10% 至 10.5% 之間。非公認會計準則每股收益預計在 3.80 美元至 3.82 美元之間。在我們的第四季和全年指引中，我們都假設非 GAAP 有效稅率為 19%。

Our guidance ranges reflect significant visibility driven by healthy backlog, ARR, RPO and improving availability of supply. As Chuck mentioned earlier, as of now, we see modest revenue growth in fiscal '24 on top of our strong performance in fiscal '23. You can also expect us to deliver earnings per share at a higher growth rate than revenue in Q4 and in fiscal '24, reflecting improving gross margins and strong expense management. And lastly, we expect to continue our stock buybacks at the higher level you've seen over the last 2 quarters.

我們的指導範圍反映了由健康的積壓訂單、ARR、RPO 和不斷提高的供應可用性所推動的顯著可見性。正如查克先前所提到的，截至目前，我們預計在 2023 財年表現強勁的基礎上，2024 財年的營收將能適度成長。您也可以預期，我們在第四季和 24 財年的每股盈餘成長率將高於營收成長率，這反映出毛利率的提高和強大的費用管理。最後，我們預計將繼續以過去兩季以來的較高水準進行股票回購。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

現在我將主題交還給瑪麗蓮，以便我們進入問答環節。

Thanks, Scott. Michelle, let's go ahead and tee up the queue for questions.

謝謝，斯科特。米歇爾，我們開始排隊提問吧。

Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess maybe if I can start with a clarification on the orders. I think, Chuck, I heard you say orders were sequentially 1 point below seasonality. But if you can clarify whether on a quarter-over-quarter basis, they were up or down, and I'm not sure if you gave it year-over-year. But maybe more broadly, as you think about your guide for next year as well, are you -- what are you assuming for orders in that? And I have a follow-up.

我想也許我可以先澄清一下訂單。查克，我想，我聽到您說訂單量比季節性低 1 個百分點。但如果您可以澄清一下，與上一季相比，它們是上升還是下降，我不確定您是否給出了與去年同期相比的數據。但也許更廣泛地說，當您考慮明年的指南時，您 - 您對其中的訂單有何假設？我還有一個後續問題。

Thanks, Samik. As I said in the opening comments, there are 3 factors really that are affecting demand, first of all. Our -- as we ship more of our backlog, our customers are digesting what they've ordered. Secondly, as our lead times come down, which our lead times have come down 40% over the last 2 quarters on a weighted basis, so it really eliminates the need for customers to order significantly in advance as they had been. And then obviously, the macro conditions.

謝謝，薩米克。正如我在開場白中所說，實際上有三個因素影響需求，首先。隨著我們運送更多積壓貨物，我們的客戶正在消化他們所訂購的貨物。其次，隨著我們的交貨時間縮短，按加權計算，過去兩個季度我們的交貨時間縮短了 40%，因此客戶無需像以前那樣提前訂購。然後顯然是宏觀條件。

When I talk about sequentials, as I've said, the year-over-years are just so hard to figure out that we've said the real thing we're looking for relative to whether we're seeing a momentum shift in the business is, are the sequentials in line? And as I've said the last couple of quarters and this quarter as well, the sequentials were operating at or slightly below the low end of our historical ranges. So I wouldn't say it's robust, but it's still within the range or slightly below. And as we look at Q4, we actually expect our sequentials to be in line with what we've seen historically. So our view based on what we see today is that we can still deliver positive growth in fiscal year '24, even on top of the good growth year we had this year.

當我談論連續性時，正如我所說，逐年成長很難弄清楚，我們所說的真正讓我們關注的是，相對於我們是否看到業務勢頭的轉變，連續性是否一致？正如我在過去幾個季度和本季所說的那樣，連續的營運處於或略低於我們歷史範圍的低端。所以我不會說它很強勁，但它仍然在範圍內或略低於該範圍。當我們展望第四季時，我們實際上預期我們的連續業績將與歷史情況一致。因此，根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們認為，即使在今年實現良好成長的基礎上，我們仍然可以在 24 財年實現正成長。

I'll make one other point. If you go back to September '21 when we had our analyst conference, we actually laid out long-term top line growth of 5% to 7%, long-term EPS growth of 5% to 7%. If you move to the end of fiscal '24 based on what we see today, we will be in that range from a CAGR perspective, on a revenue perspective, and we'll be above that range from an EPS perspective during that same time period.

我還要強調一點。如果回顧 2021 年 9 月我們召開分析師會議時的情況，我們實際上製定了 5% 至 7% 的長期營收成長率和 5% 至 7% 的長期每股盈餘成長率。如果根據我們今天看到的情況預測到 24 財年末，從複合年增長率和收入角度來看，我們將處於該範圍內，並且從同一時間段內的每股收益角度來看，我們將高於該範圍。

Okay. Got it. And for my follow-up, I think I wanted to sort of touch on that expense control that you talked about and EPS growing faster than revenue. Is that sort of a change of thinking from the Analyst Day in terms of -- I think at the Analyst Day, you were talking about sort of limited operating leverage and growing earnings more in line with revenue. It seems to be that outside of the gross margin, you're thinking about being a bit more disciplined and pulling back on expenses, but maybe confirm if that's sort of how you -- if we are interpreting that right.

好的。知道了。在我的後續問題中，我想談談您談到的費用控制以及每股盈餘成長速度快於收入的問題。這是否與分析師日的思維方式有所轉變？我認為在分析師日，您談論的是有限的經營槓桿以及與收入更一致的獲利成長。看起來，除了毛利率之外，你正在考慮更加自律並削減開支，但也許可以確認一下你的做法是否正確——如果我們的理解正確的話。

Yes. Samik, if you look at the last 2 years, we've actually grown EPS faster than revenue. And as we look to Q4 and then beyond, it's pretty clear that with the gross margin expansion and with our expense management that we are implementing, we can still fund the investment areas that we need to fund as well as actually deliver higher EPS growth rates than revenue, which is what a lot of our investors have been asking for. And so we believe that's quite feasible for us to do now. Scott, do you have any comments on that?

是的。 Samik，如果你回顧過去兩年，你會發現我們的每股盈餘成長速度其實快於營收成長速度。展望第四季度及以後，很明顯，隨著毛利率的擴大和我們正在實施的費用管理，我們仍然可以為需要資助的投資領域提供資金，並且實際上實現高於收入的每股收益增長率，這正是許多投資者一直要求的。因此我們相信現在這樣做是完全可行的。斯科特，你對此有什麼評論嗎？

No. I think you touched on the key points. We will continue to invest in growth. But we also -- as you've seen in the last 2 years, you've seen us do this grow the bottom line faster than the top line in fiscal '22 and at the midpoint of our guide for fiscal '23. And as we look ahead, it's a time to be prudent, and so we see that happening again in fiscal '24.

不，我認為您觸及了關鍵點。我們將繼續投資於成長。但我們也——正如您在過去兩年中所看到的，我們已經看到我們在 22 財年和 23 財年指南的中點實現了利潤增長快於收入增長。展望未來，現在是謹慎的時候，因此我們看到這種情況在 24 財年再次發生。

Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

西蒙·利奧波德和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

At the beginning of May, Cisco announced a capital business acceleration program as a part of Cisco Capital. This is a topic we haven't talked about much on recent calls. I'd just like a little bit better understanding as to what's the strategy, thought process and rationale for implementing that program?

五月初，思科宣布推出資本業務加速計劃，作為思科資本的一部分。這是我們在最近的電話會議中沒有談論太多的一個話題。我只是想更了解實施該計劃的策略、思考過程和基本原理是什麼？

Yes, Simon, thanks for the question. That's something that you've seen us do in the past. It's more a reflection of interest rates jumping up to 5%. Our customers needing to get their hands on technology to continue to advance their own strategies and us just putting our balance sheet to work a bit. It's not more complicated than that.

是的，西蒙，謝謝你的提問。這是我們過去曾經做過的事。這更多是利率躍升至5%的反映。我們的客戶需要掌握技術來繼續推進自己的策略，而我們只是讓我們的資產負債表稍微發揮作用。事實並沒有比這更複雜。

And no real effect on your financial model, I assume then?

那麼我認為這對您的財務模型沒有實際影響，對嗎？

No. Not in terms of profitability or in terms of the long-term impact that's going to have.

不，從獲利能力或長期影響來看，都沒有影響。

David Vogt with UBS.

瑞銀的 David Vogt。

Maybe just more qualitative and maybe as a follow-up to Simon's question. Can you kind of give a little bit more color on what you saw, let's say, in March into April and what you're seeing today from a macro perspective? Because it certainly sounds like from our conversations with partners and other industry folks that March was a bit softer than people had anticipated, and it didn't improve in April. Just love to get your perspective there.

也許只是更定性，也許是作為西蒙問題的後續。您能否從宏觀角度更詳細地介紹一下您所看到的情況，例如三月到四月的情況以及今天所看到的情況？因為從我們與合作夥伴和其他業內人士的對話來看，三月的表現確實比人們預期的要疲軟一些，而且四月份的情況也沒有改善。只是想聽聽你的觀點。

And then I'll give you my follow-up real quick. So if I kind of take your comment about the 3-year plan, it certainly would imply kind of revenue growth next year in kind of the 2%, 3% range and EPS in the 5% range. Is that kind of what you're trying to communicate from a back-of-the-envelope perspective next year given the macro headwinds?

然後我會很快給你我的後續資訊。因此，如果我接受你關於三年計畫的評論，那肯定意味著明年的收入成長在 2%、3% 左右，每股收益在 5% 左右。考慮到明年宏觀經濟的不利因素，您是否想從粗略的角度來傳達這一點？

I'm sorry, David, could you repeat that second part, the numbers you had there? I didn't catch them.

抱歉，大衛，你能重複第二部分，也就是你那裡的數字嗎？我沒抓到他們。

Yes. If I just kind of take the back-of-the-envelope math on your 5% to 7% 3-year target, that would imply revenue growth next year in the 2% to 3% range and EPS maybe 5% to 6% range. Is that kind of what you're trying to message here? Just so we have a sense for how you're thinking about the macro.

是的。如果我對您的 5% 至 7% 的 3 年目標進行粗略計算，那就意味著明年的收入增長在 2% 至 3% 的範圍內，每股收益可能在 5% 至 6% 的範圍內。這就是您在這裡想要傳達的訊息嗎？這樣我們就能了解您是如何思考宏觀的問題。

All right, David. Thanks for the questions. So let me talk about the linearity that we saw in the quarter. It actually was very favorable from our perspective on the orders. While we clearly see that we're operating at the low end of historical ranges on a sequential basis, we did not see it deteriorate from the beginning of the quarter to the end. In fact, it was -- our linearity was slightly better than it normally is. And April was actually sort of in line with what we've seen, maybe even (inaudible) better than the first 2 months. So we did not see that particular outcome.

好的，大衛。感謝您的提問。那麼讓我來談談我們在本季看到的線性。從我們訂單的角度來看，這實際上是非常有利的。雖然我們清楚地看到，我們的營運狀況在連續基礎上處於歷史區間的低端，但我們並沒有看到它從本季度初到末惡化。事實上，我們的線性比正常情況下略好一些。而四月的情況其實與我們所看到的情況一致，甚至可能（聽不清楚）比前兩個月更好。所以我們沒有看到那個特定的結果。

And again, what we're looking for is a change in underlying momentum. I'm not suggesting there's strong momentum. I'm just saying we're looking for a change. And the best way to do that is to really understand, do the sequentials continue to play out the way they're supposed to? And as of now, we see they are playing out very consistently and sort of the low end of the range or slightly below. And then, Scott, do you want to take the FY '24 number?

再說一次，我們正在尋找的是潛在動力的改變。我並不是說現在的勢頭強勁。我只是說我們正在尋求改變。而做到這一點的最佳方式就是真正理解，而序列是否繼續以預期的方式進行？截至目前，我們看到他們的表​​現非常穩定，處於該範圍的低端或略低。然後，史考特，你想了解 24 財年的數字嗎？

Yes, sure. Just on the math you're trying to do, David, I think you're in the right ballpark. What I'd say, obviously, I don't want to get into being too precise on fiscal '24 yet since it's only our Q3 call. But bear in mind, that's growth on fiscal '24 on top of at the midpoint of our guide for fiscal '23, 10.2% growth in fiscal '23. The last time we had double-digit revenue growth for a full year was back in 2012 in the bounce back of the -- from the global financial crisis. So it's a very strong year this year, and we see a modest level of growth on top of that.

是的，當然。大衛，就你嘗試做的數學計算而言，我認為你的估算是正確的。我想說的是，顯然我還不想對 24 財年的情況過於精確，因為這只是我們第三季的業績預測。但請記住，這是 24 財年的成長，高於我們對 23 財年指南的中點，即 23 財年成長 10.2%。我們上一次全年營收實現兩位數成長是在 2012 年，當時正值全球金融危機後的反彈。因此，今年是業績非常強勁的一年，而且我們也看到了適度的成長。

George Notter with Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的喬治諾特 (George Notter)。

I guess I wanted to ask about the growth expectation for this year. I'm curious about your view. How much of that growth comes from price? How much comes from backlog consumption? What are the bigger factors driving that growth this year?

我想問一下今年的成長預期。我對你的觀點很好奇。其中成長有多少來自於價格？有多少來自積壓消耗？今年推動這項成長的更大因素是什麼？

Yes. I guess where I'd start is the biggest factor driving the growth for this year is the huge amount of demand we've had from our customers that's been sitting in backlog as we've worked our way through some of the supply issues. That's -- if you ask what's driving the growth, it's that, it's end-user demand.

是的。我想首先要說的是，推動今年成長的最大因素是來自客戶的大量需求，而由於我們一直在努力解決一些供應問題，這些需求一直積壓著。如果你問是什麼推動了成長，那就是最終用戶的需求。

When you start to peel back to the mechanics of how that got put together, a lot of it is our ability to -- based on a lot of hard work actually from both the engineering team and the supply chain team to free up some of the component supply issues that we've had that's allowed us to work through some of the backlog. We're not finished. There's still supply constraints. We think we end the year. Just like we said last quarter, we end the year with still with roughly double what our normal backlog would be, but we've made great strides on that front.

當你開始回顧這一切是如何組合在一起的機制時，你會發現，很大程度上這是我們的能力——實際上，這基於工程團隊和供應鏈團隊的大量努力，以解決我們遇到的一些組件供應問題，這使我們能夠解決一些積壓問題。我們還沒完成。仍然存在供應限制。我們認為我們結束了這一年。正如我們上個季度所說的那樣，今年年底我們的積壓訂單量仍然大約是正常積壓訂單量的兩倍，但我們在這方面已經取得了長足的進步。

Price has been a positive for us. As we said earlier, there's a -- as we work our way through the backlog, more of the orders that we received prior to those price actions that we took last year have been delivered now. And so we are seeing -- you'll see this when we publish our Q, about 1 point of benefit from price.

價格對我們來說是一個利好。正如我們之前所說，隨著我們處理積壓訂單，我們在去年採取價格行動之前收到的更多訂單現在已經交付。因此我們看到——當我們發布 Q 時，您會看到價格帶來約 1 點的收益。

Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Meta Marshall。

I was wondering if you could just kind of speak to the trends you're seeing within enterprise commercial service provider. You noted kind of seeing some digestion on the webscale, but just wanted to kind of get a sense if there's any different trends that you're seeing within those customer types.

我想知道您是否可以談談您在企業商業服務提供者中看到的趨勢。您注意到在網路規模上看到了一些消化，但只是想了解一下在這些客戶類型中是否存在任何不同的趨勢。

And then maybe just as a follow-up question. Obviously, your customers have been going through cloud optimization efforts and kind of looking towards long-term architectures. Is there any changes kind of you distinguish from customers just on the outcomes or ways in which Cisco can kind of better help customers on that journey?

然後也許只是作為一個後續問題。顯然，您的客戶一直在進行雲端優化工作，並專注於長期架構。您是否在結果上與客戶有所區別，或者思科如何能夠更好地幫助客戶實現這一目標？

Yes. Thanks, Meta. So the trends by segment, I think if you think about the 3 factors that I described, one is customers needing to digest the shipments that we're shipping out. And secondly, as our lead times come down significantly, they don't need to order as far in advance. And if you think about who the customers are that have the most visibility and have done most of the advanced ordering, it's going to be large enterprises and service providers and webscale providers. And so from a segment perspective, I think the predominant issue we're seeing in the service provider space, which, by the way, contributed to 41% of the overall year-over-year decline, came from the (inaudible), which is less than 20% of our total revenue. So it had an outsized impact on our overall year-over-year decline.

是的。謝謝，Meta。因此，如果您考慮我所描述的三個因素，那麼按細分市場劃分的趨勢，我認為其中之一就是客戶需要消化我們運送的貨物。其次，由於我們的交貨時間大幅縮短，他們不需要提前那麼久訂購。如果你考慮一下誰是最具知名度和完成大部分提前訂購的客戶，那將是大型企業、服務提供者和網路規模供應商。因此，從細分市場的角度來看，我認為我們在服務提供者領域看到的主要問題（順便說一下，該領域導致了整體同比下降的 41%）來自於（聽不清楚），這不到我們總收入的 20%。因此，它對我們整體的同比下滑產生了巨大的影響。

I would say in the enterprise, there's large enterprises that are dealing with the same issues and are facing -- and are doing the same thing. They're digesting the equipment, and they're not needing to order as far ahead. We're also seeing the same things that you've heard from others. We're seeing elongated sales cycles. We're seeing more signatures required. But in general, we're getting the signatures, but they are taking a little longer.

我想說，在企業中，大型企業正在處理同樣的問題，面臨同樣的問題，並且正在做同樣的事情。他們正在消化這些設備，而且不需要提前訂購。我們也看到了您從其他人那裡聽到的相同的事情。我們看到銷售週期延長。我們看到需要更多簽名。但整體來說，我們還是能拿到簽名，只是需要的時間稍微長一點。

And then as it relates to the technology trends and what our customers are focused on, the good news for us is that if you think about every customer on the planet is basically has 5 key priorities that we actually align to. One is they're re-architecting for this multi-cloud world. They're trying to figure out hybrid work. They're rebuilding their entire application strategy and rearchitecting their applications. They're rebuilding their cyber footprint because of all this distributed nature of what they're doing now, and they're focused on sustainability. And our technology plays across all of those very important areas, and we're working very hard with all of our customers in all of those spaces.

然後，當它與技術趨勢和客戶關注的重點相關時，對我們來說好消息是，如果你想想地球上的每個客戶，基本上都有 5 個我們實際上會關注的關鍵優先事項。一是他們正在為這個多雲世界重新建構架構。他們正在嘗試尋找混合工作。他們正在重建整個應用程式策略並重新設計他們的應用程式。由於他們現在所做的事情具有分散式特性，他們正在重建自己的網路足跡，並且他們專注於永續性。我們的技術涉及所有這些非常重要的領域，我們正在與所有這些領域的所有客戶一起努力合作。

And it's -- and then the final one, I think, that's on everybody's mind is artificial intelligence or Generative AI. And I would say in the webscale space, over the next 5 years, the market opportunity -- well, the entire market opportunity for AI infrastructure is estimated to be at $8.5 billion by '27, growing at about 40% CAGR from where it was. As I said in my opening comments, we're already installed as a networking infrastructure for some of these early AI models that the webscalers are running. If you think about where we were at the beginning of the webscale build-out a decade ago, I said many times on these calls that we were not prepared, and we got left out. And I would say this time for this AI infrastructure from a networking perspective, I believe we are better positioned than anybody else, and our teams have done a great job getting us into this position, and we see that as a massive opportunity.

最後一點，我認為，每個人都在關注的是人工智慧或生成性人工智慧。我想說，在網路規模領域，未來 5 年的市場機會——嗯，預計到 27 年，人工智慧基礎設施的整個市場機會將達到 85 億美元，複合年增長率約為 40%。正如我在開場白中所說，我們已經為網路擴展器正在運行的一些早期 AI 模型安裝了網路基礎設施。如果您想想十年前我們在網路規模建設之初的情況，我在電話會議上多次說過，我們沒有做好準備，所以我們被排除在外了。我想說，這一次，從網路角度來看，對於人工智慧基礎設施，我相信我們比其他任何人都處於更有利的位置，我們的團隊在讓我們進入這一地位方面做得非常出色，我們認為這是一個巨大的機會。

Sami Badri with Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的薩米‧巴德里 (Sami Badri)。

All right. My question is on any kind of dynamics with the hyperscalers or cloud providers that led to any kind of product pushouts or delays of shipments or any kind of receipts that took longer delivery. Anything that was shifted? Do you guys see any kind of shifting of deliveries or request to ship deliveries in the quarter?

好的。我的問題是，超大規模企業或雲端供應商之間是否存在任何動態，導致任何類型的產品推出或出貨延遲或任何類型的收貨需要更長時間交付。有什麼東西被轉移了嗎？你們是否看到本季交貨有任何變更或出貨要求？

No, we did not see any of that. In fact, we've been fulfilling all the request. There are certain projects that our teams have been working on that they have delayed, but those are around new orders, not around what's in the backlog. I think a lot of that is because there's so much focus now on building out the AI infrastructure for each of them, and so that's really what we see happening, and it's an area that we we've had lots of design wins. We continue to get design wins, and it's an area where we believe that we'll continue to gain market share.

不，我們沒有看到任何這些。事實上，我們一直在滿足所有要求。我們的團隊正在進行的某些項目已被推遲，但這些項目與新訂單有關，而不是積壓訂單。我認為這在很大程度上是因為現在人們非常注重為每個系統建立人工智慧基礎設施，這就是我們所看到的正在發生的事情，而且在這個領域我們已經取得了許多設計上的勝利。我們不斷獲得設計勝利，我們相信我們將繼續在這個領域獲得市場份額。

Got it. And then one follow-up on gross margins. You talked about the modest growth in '24, and you also talked about EPS outpacing that. But maybe we could get an idea on gross margin trajectory. Should -- is there something we should be thinking as far as a glide path or an expansion range?

知道了。然後是關於毛利率的後續問題。您談到了 24 年的溫和成長，也談到了 EPS 的成長超過了這一成長。但也許我們可以了解毛利率走勢。我們應該－就下滑路徑或擴展範圍而言，我們應該考慮什麼嗎？

Yes, Sami, you see the midpoint of the guide we gave on gross margin for Q4. We've seen significant progress on gross margin through the year. I mean the product gross margin grew 240 basis points sequentially. That said, I think we're about to the point where we're lapping some of the benefits of the price increases. So there may be a little more room in gross margin sequentially. But if you look at the average for the year next year, of course, if you remember the first quarter of this year, we had a pretty significant impact in gross margin. So the average for the full year will definitely go up, right, as we see, if we keep it the same glide path through fiscal '24.

是的，薩米，您看到了我們給出的第四季度毛利率指南的中點。我們看到今年的毛利率取得了顯著的進步。我的意思是產品毛利率連續成長了 240 個基點。話雖如此，我認為我們即將享受到價格上漲帶來的一些好處。因此，毛利率可能會有較多的連續成長空間。但如果你看看明年的平均值，當然，如果你還記得今年第一季度，我們對毛利率的影響相當顯著。因此，正如我們所見，如果我們在 24 財年保持相同的下滑路徑，那麼全年平均值肯定會上升。

Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Matt Niknam。

First, just a follow-up on the fiscal '24. The modest growth, what sort of macro assumptions are you embedding into that preliminary outlook? And then just secondly, if I could just double click on security. If you can maybe talk about what's driving some of the softness or decelerating growth. I believe it was about 2% growth this past quarter and what you're anticipating in terms of maybe additional backlog release and whether that can maybe help some of those trends looking forward.

首先，只是 24 財年的後續情況。溫和成長，您在初步展望中嵌入了什麼樣的宏觀假設？其次，如果我可以雙擊「安全性」。您能否談談導致經濟成長疲軟或放緩的原因？我認為上個季度的成長約為 2%，您預期可能會有更多積壓訂單釋放，以及這是否可能有助於未來的某些趨勢。

You want to take the first?

你想拿第一名嗎？

Yes. If we start on fiscal '24. I think there's a few things, Matt, to keep in mind before we start talking about macro. We're rolling into the year with a backlog that's roughly double than what would be normal. And that's really just a function of kind of the continuing supply constraints that are definitely improving, and that's why you see some of the strength that we've shown in this quarter and in our guide for next quarter, but they're not done. I do see those normalizing sometime midyear. By the second half of the year, we should be through most of the backlog.

是的。如果我們從 24 財年開始。馬特，我認為在我們開始討論宏觀之前，有幾件事需要記住。進入新一年，我們的積壓訂單量大約是正常水平的兩倍。這實際上只是持續供應限制的一種表現，供應限制肯定正在改善，這就是為什麼你會看到我們在本季度和下一季的指南中表現出一些實力，但它們還沒有結束。我確實看到這些在年中某個時候恢復正常。到今年下半年，我們應該可以處理掉大部分積壓的工作。

The second is the absorption factor. We think that with the lead times normalizing and working through the backlog, the absorption factor also probably gets itself work through to next year by around midyear of next year. So -- but when you roll into the year with $32 billion of RPO, which is where we are today, $17 billion of that being current with almost $24 billion of ARR, which drives a huge renewal opportunity for us next year and with backlog, it takes a lot of pressure off of what needs to happen from a macro standpoint.

第二是吸收因素。我們認為，隨著交貨時間的正常化和積壓訂單的解決，吸收因素也可能會在明年年中左右發揮作用。所以——但是當你進入 320 億美元的 RPO 年度時，這就是我們今天的水平，其中 170 億美元是當前的，而 ARR 接近 240 億美元，這為我們明年帶來了巨大的更新機會，並且有了積壓訂單，從宏觀角度來看，這減輕了我們需要做的事情的壓力。

And then I'd say on the security front, I think I've been -- we've talked about this on several calls, and we've hired new leadership team. The team is doing a phenomenal job. We had a big announcement recently at RSA where we launched an XDR platform that actually is one of the first that actually ingests data from our competitors and our partners across the industry. And at Cisco Live in a couple of weeks, we're going to make the next wave of announcements around some new innovation. And so I think we've acknowledged that we needed to get this -- these new technologies out, and I think that they're coming out with unique differentiation to Cisco. And I think that's over the next -- when you look out sort of the second half of next fiscal year, I think you'll see security really be accelerating into a growth driver for us.

然後我想說，在安全方面，我想我已經——我們已經在幾次電話會議上討論過這個問題，並且我們已經聘請了新的領導團隊。該團隊正在做著非凡的工作。我們最近在 RSA 上發布了一個重大公告，推出了一個 XDR 平台，該平台實際上是首批從我們的競爭對手和整個行業的合作夥伴那裡獲取數據的平台之一。幾週後，我們將在 Cisco Live 上發布有關一些新創新的下一波公告。因此，我認為我們已經認識到我們需要推出這些新技術，而且我認為它們與思科相比具有獨特的差異化。我認為，當你展望下一個財年的下半年時，你會看到安全確實會加速成為我們的成長動力。

Mike Ng, you may go ahead from Goldman Sachs.

Mike Ng，你可以從高盛繼續前進。

I just have 2. First, could you just talk a little bit about how you're thinking about inventory levels on the balance sheet going forward? And if you have any information you could share with us around purchase commitments as well? And then I have a quick follow-up.

我只有 2 個問題。首先，您能否稍微談談您對未來資產負債表上的庫存水準的看法？您是否還有任何有關購買承諾的資訊可以與我們分享？然後我有一個快速的跟進。

Sure, Michael. If you look at -- you really have to look at the sum of those 2 collectively because purchase commitments are there, they're firm commitments that we've made to take on inventory. So the line between what's in purchase commitments and what's actually on our balance sheet is pretty great. When you add those 2 together and look back over the last 3 quarters, we've worked down about $3 billion worth of the combination of inventory on hand and the purchase commitment. So I think the team has done a really nice job balancing, ensuring we have supply to continue to work our way through the backlog, and at the same time, minimizing the risk that we have too much inventory.

當然，邁克爾。如果你看一下——你真的必須把這兩者結合起來看，因為購買承諾就在那裡，它們是我們為承擔庫存而做出的堅定承諾。因此，購買承諾和資產負債表上的實際金額之間的界限非常明顯。將這兩者加在一起，並回顧過去 3 個季度，我們計算出的庫存和購買承諾總額約為 30 億美元。因此，我認為團隊在平衡方面做得非常好，確保我們有供應繼續處理積壓訂單，同時最大限度地降低庫存過多的風險。

Great. Excellent. And then second, it was encouraging to hear about the expectation to return to a normal seasonality in sequential orders starting next quarter. I was just wondering if you could provide a little bit more texture around those expectations. Is the absorption of early product shipments that may have impacted the sequential this quarter going to be largely done by next? Is it just the easier comps? Any thoughts there would be helpful.

偉大的。出色的。其次，令人鼓舞的是，預計從下個季度開始，連續訂單將恢復正常的季節性。我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多關於這些期望的細節。本季連續影響的早期產品出貨量的吸收是否會在下個季度基本完成？這只是更簡單的比較嗎？任何想法都會有幫助。

Thanks, Michael. Well, when I said that Q4, we see normal sequentials from Q3, that just means they're in the range of the historical ranges that we've seen from high to low. So it's not like an anomaly. It's not going to be significantly higher or significantly lower based on what we see today. We think that the digestion issue and the lead time stuff, we're estimating right now that most of that stuff gets washed out by the middle of next fiscal year. So we think to really get back to where you see normalized sort of ordering patterns and normalized backlog, we think that's probably going to be the second half of fiscal '24.

謝謝，麥可。好吧，當我說第四季時，我們看到了第三季的正常連續性，這只是意味著它們處於我們從高到低看到的歷史範圍之內。所以這並不像是一個異常現象。根據我們今天看到的情況，它不會明顯更高或更低。我們認為，消化問題和交貨時間問題，我們現在估計，到下一個財政年度中期，大部分問題都會解決。因此，我們認為要真正回到正常化的訂購模式和正常化的積壓狀態，我們認為這可能是 24 財年的下半年。

Amit Daryanani from Evercore.

Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Perfect. Glad I sneaked in here. I guess I have 2 as well. Maybe first on the hyperscale side. Chuck, you talked about seeing gains on the AI infrastructure side. Can you sort of touch on where are you seeing these wins? Is it sort of data center switching or (inaudible) or something else? And then are these sort of net new applications getting (inaudible) just any color there would be helpful.

完美的。很高興我偷偷溜到這裡。我想我也有 2 個。也許首先是超大規模方面。查克，您談到了人工智慧基礎設施的收益。您能否談談您從哪些方面看到了這些勝利？它是資料中心交換還是（聽不清楚）或其他什麼？那麼，這些新的網路應用程式是否會獲得（聽不清楚）任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. So on a specific hyperscaler situation, we've been winning and displacing or becoming a second vendor in existing architectures for the last couple of years. And then we're winning new franchises around. These AI networks, in many cases, are brand new, and we're actually winning some of them as well. And so as you think about AI, I think it's important to understand the underlying technology.

是的。因此，在特定的超大規模情況下，過去幾年我們一直在贏得現有架構並取代或成為第二大供應商。然後我們贏得了新的特許經營權。在很多情況下，這些人工智慧網路都是全新的，我們實際上也贏得了其中一些。因此，當你思考人工智慧時，我認為了解底層技術非常重要。

And just quickly, today, what's largely used is something called InfiniBand. And we see that our -- the webscalers are -- they have a desire to move to Ethernet and then further to this new technology that we actually have (inaudible). And we support both Ethernet and (inaudible), and we think we're leading in this space. And it actually increases the -- I'd say, makes these networks run more effectively and more efficiently. And so those are some of the reasons we're winning. But it's just -- it's a very big opportunity over the next 5, 6, 7 years.

簡單來說，今天廣泛使用的技術是一種稱為 InfiniBand 的技術。我們看到，我們的網路擴展者希望轉向以太網，然後進一步轉向我們實際上擁有的這項新技術（聽不清楚）。我們支持乙太網路和（聽不清楚），我們認為我們在這個領域處於領先地位。而且它實際上提高了——我想說，讓這些網路運作得更有效、更有效率。這些就是我們獲勝的一些原因。但這只是——這是未來 5、6、7 年的一個巨大機會。

Got it. And then if I could just maybe go back to this order discussion. I think everyone seems to be surprised on orders being down 22% despite the compares getting easier, and I get your sequential commentary fairly well. But perhaps you can just talk about -- you compared that you get really easy for the next few quarters. So do you feel like the down 22% is the trough and the declines may still be there but they sort of ease up until you get to the back half? Or how do you think about the order trajectory over the next few quarters and maybe the magnitude of it?

知道了。然後我是否可以回到這個訂單討論。我認為儘管比較變得更容易，但每個人似乎都對訂單下降 22% 感到驚訝，而且我非常理解您的連續評論。但也許您可以談談——相比之下，接下來的幾季會變得非常輕鬆。那麼，您是否覺得 22% 的跌幅是最低點，跌勢可能仍會存在，但會逐漸減緩，直到進入後半段？或者您如何看待未來幾季的訂單走勢及其幅度？

Yes, it's interesting. Back 4, 5, 6 quarters ago, I said we see this huge bookings and revenues running at a much lower level. And I said there will be an inflection point, where revenue will run much higher than bookings. But it's -- so it's playing out exactly as we expected. Now there is the added dynamic of sort of the macro uncertainty that people are certainly concerned about.

是的，很有趣。早在 4、5、6 個季度前，我就說過，我們看到巨大的預訂量和收入處於較低的水平。我說過，將會有一個轉折點，屆時收入將遠高於預訂量。但事實正如我們所預期的。現在，人們肯定對宏觀不確定性的增加感到擔憂。

What we're looking for is to see, again, if there is a significant shift in momentum from one quarter to the next, which is one of the sequential thing we watch. We watched it for 20 years, and it really helps us see what's going on. And I think we're just going to have to -- what we're telling you right now is based on what we see today. And when we look out at FY '24 and the commentary we made about showing positive growth on a high growth year that we're having this year, it's based on, as Scott said, on backlog, on RPO, and it's based on the visibility that our sales teams have right now and what their expectations are for orders over the next 12 months.

我們正在尋找的是再次觀察從一個季度到下一個季度的勢頭是否發生顯著轉變，這是我們連續觀察的事情之一。我們觀看了 20 年，它確實幫助我們了解正在發生的事情。我認為我們必須——我們現在告訴你們的是基於我們今天所看到的情況。當我們展望 24 財年以及我們關於在今年的高成長年份中實現正成長的評論時，正如 Scott 所說，這是基於積壓訂單、RPO，也是基於我們的銷售團隊目前的可見性以及他們對未來 12 個月訂單的預期。

Yes. Just to add a little bit to that, Amit, a little bit more to that. When you add up between what will be current RPO that will turn into revenue during fiscal '24, plus the backlog normalizing, which will be a tailwind, plus the renewal opportunity of what's not in RPO today, but sitting in ARR today, round number is somewhere between 40% and 50% of that revenue for next year is contained in those 3 lines, right? It's either orders that are in-house and sitting in RPO or sitting in backlog or renewal opportunities that we have a chance to go out and renew this year. So when I said it takes a lot of pressure off of macro, it's a strong position to be in, rolling into next year with that much of it either already in-house or sitting as renewal opportunities for us.

是的。阿米特，我再補充一點，再補充一點。當您將當前 RPO（將在 24 財年轉化為收入）加上積壓訂單正常化（這將是一個順風）加上目前不在 RPO 中但今天在 ARR 中的更新機會加起來時，大概是明年收入的 40% 到 50% 包含在這三項中，對嗎？這些訂單要么是內部訂單，要么是 RPO 中的訂單，要么是積壓訂單，要么是續約機會，我們今年有機會出去續約。因此，當我說它減輕了宏觀的很大壓力時，這是一個強有力的地位，進入明年，其中大部分要么已經在內部，要么作為我們的更新機會。

That's a really good data point, Scott. And I think if you go back 8 or 10 years ago, in any given quarter, we would have to take orders for as much as 75% of our revenue in the quarter. And that's certainly not the case today, so that actually helps us as we (inaudible).

這是一個非常好的數據點，斯科特。我認為，如果回顧 8 年前或 10 年前，在任何一個季度，我們都必須接受佔該季度收入 75% 的訂單。而今天的情況肯定不是這樣，所以這實際上對我們有幫助（聽不清楚）。

All right. Great. And Chuck, I'll turn it over to you.

好的。偉大的。查克，我把它交給你。

Thanks, Marilyn. In closing, I want to thank everybody for spending time with us today, first of all. I'm super proud of our results. I think our teams are executing very well. I'm proud of the record results that we had this quarter. I'm also really proud that we're seeing what we also said, which is the market share gains come through that we had talked about. We've been asked on several calls about market share. And in the reports that we expect to be coming out very soon, we have meaningful share gains that, I think, you'll see in campus switching, SD branch routing, wireless LAN, SP routing, some of our absolute biggest markets, which reflect the relevance of our technology to our customers right now. I'm really proud that looking at FY '24, we still see growth on a strong double-digit growth year and also growing earnings per share faster than we are revenue. And our teams are committed to delivering on our commitments, and we look forward to spending time with you 90 days from now. So thanks for being with us.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮。最後，首先我要感謝大家今天抽出時間與我們在一起。我對我們的成績感到非常自豪。我認為我們的團隊表現非常出色。我對我們本季取得的創紀錄的業績感到自豪。我也感到非常自豪，我們看到了我們所謂的市場份額成長。我們在幾次電話中都被問到市場佔有率的問題。在我們即將發布的報告中，我們將看到我們市場份額的顯著增長，我想，您會在校園交換、SD 分支路由、無線區域網路、SP 路由等我們最大的一些市場中看到這些增長，這反映了我們的技術與客戶的相關性。我真的很自豪，展望 24 財年，我們仍然看到強勁的兩位數成長，每股收益的成長速度快於營收的成長速度。我們的團隊致力於履行我們的承諾，我們期待 90 天後與您共度時光。感謝您與我們同在。

All right. Thanks, Chuck. And to close this out, Cisco's next quarterly earnings conference call, which will reflect our fiscal year 2023 fourth quarter and fiscal 2023 results will be on Wednesday, August 16, 2023 at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

好的。謝謝，查克。最後，思科的下一次季度財報電話會議將於 2023 年 8 月 16 日星期三下午 1:30 舉行，該會議將反映我們 2023 財年第四季和 2023 財年的業績。太平洋時間下午 4:30東部時間。

This concludes today's call. If you have any further questions, feel free to reach out to the Cisco Investor Relations department, and we thank you very much for joining the call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時聯繫思科投資者關係部門，非常感謝您參加此電話會議。

And thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (800) 395-6236. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369-3270. This concludes today's call. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想完整收聽電話會議，可以撥打（800）395-6236。對於從美國境外撥打電話的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369-3270。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。