思科 (CSCO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2022 年第四季度和財年財務業績電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製中。如果您有任何異議，您可以斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora。女士，您可以開始了。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO. By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call.

歡迎大家參加思科 2022 財年第四季度季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora，我們的主席兼首席執行官 Chuck Robbins 也加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Scott Herren。到目前為止，您應該已經看到了我們的收益新聞稿。電話會議後，將在我們網站的投資者關係部分提供相應的帶有幻燈片的網絡廣播，包括補充信息。

Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website. Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders unless stated otherwise. All comparisons made throughout this call will be done on a year-over-year basis.

損益表、完整的 GAAP 到非 GAAP 對賬信息、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務信息也可以在我們的投資者關係網站的財務信息部分找到。在本次電話會議中，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，除非另有說明，否則我們將討論收入方面的產品結果以及產品訂單方面的地理和客戶結果。在整個電話會議中進行的所有比較都將按年進行。

The matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the first quarter and full year of fiscal 2023. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2023 財年第一季度和全年提供的指導。它們受到我們在提交給SEC，特別是關於 10-K 和 10-Q 表格的最新報告，其中確定了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異的重要風險因素。關於指導，請參閱本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和新聞稿以獲取更多詳細信息。除非通過明確的公開披露，否則思科不會在本季度對其財務指導發表評論。

I will now turn it over to Chuck.

我現在把它交給查克。

Thank you, Marilyn, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. I'm very proud to share that we had a strong end to our fiscal year in the midst of an incredibly dynamic environment. In fact, we set several records with our performance this year. Let me first touch on those.

謝謝你，瑪麗蓮，也感謝你們今天加入我們。我很自豪地與大家分享，在一個令人難以置信的動態環境中，我們的財政年度取得了強勁的收官。事實上，我們今年的表現創下了多項紀錄。讓我先談談這些。

For the full year of fiscal '22, we delivered record non-GAAP EPS of $3.36. Record product orders, which fueled our backlog to the highest level ever recorded, as well as our second strongest year of revenue in the history of the company at $51.6 billion. We continue to see strong customer adoption of our software and subscriptions, driven by the targeted investments we've been making. We also had record net income, which reflects our operating discipline despite external challenges, including supply chain and inflation.

在 22 財年全年，我們實現了創紀錄的非 GAAP 每股收益 3.36 美元。創紀錄的產品訂單，推動我們的積壓達到有史以來的最高水平，以及我們公司歷史上第二強勁的收入年，達到 516 億美元。在我們一直在進行的有針對性的投資的推動下，我們繼續看到大量客戶採用我們的軟件和訂閱。我們還取得了創紀錄的淨收入，這反映了我們儘管面臨外部挑戰（包括供應鍊和通貨膨脹）的經營紀律。

Our ongoing business transformation continues to show progress across our KPIs with annualized recurring revenue or ARR, and remaining performance obligations, or RPO, both setting record highs. These important metrics illustrate the increasing recurring nature of our revenue streams. This, combined with our record backlog provides us with enhanced visibility into our business looking forward.

我們正在進行的業務轉型繼續在我們的 KPI 方面取得進展，年度經常性收入或 ARR 以及剩餘的履約義務或 RPO 均創下歷史新高。這些重要指標說明了我們收入流日益頻繁的性質。這與我們的記錄積壓相結合，為我們提供了對未來業務的增強可見性。

While this was certainly a complex year, we executed well. I want to thank our teams for their perseverance, determination and unwavering commitment to our customers and our partners. Our team's commitment to accelerated innovation has put us in a unique position of strength for fiscal '23 and over the long term.

雖然這肯定是複雜的一年，但我們執行得很好。我要感謝我們的團隊對我們的客戶和合作夥伴的堅持、決心和堅定不移的承諾。我們團隊對加速創新的承諾使我們在 23 財年和長期處於獨特的優勢地位。

Now I want to be clear on our outlook for fiscal '23. We expect strong performance across our portfolio, driven by our continued focus on innovation and easing of supply constraints to drive solid top line growth and profitability. While we anticipated some moderation from the unprecedented product order growth of last year, demand signals remain solid.

現在我想明確我們對 23 財年的展望。在我們持續關注創新和緩解供應限制以推動穩健的收入增長和盈利能力的推動下，我們預計我們的投資組合將表現強勁。雖然我們預計去年前所未有的產品訂單增長會有所放緩，但需求信號仍然穩固。

We do expect to continue to experience higher costs in the short term, driven primarily by higher component, freight and logistics costs, which is reflected in our Q1 guide. However, as you'll see in our annual guidance, we expect this margin pressure to begin to ease as the year progresses. Long term, there are many multiyear growth opportunities ahead of us that gives me confidence in our future.

我們確實預計短期內將繼續經歷更高的成本，這主要是由於較高的組件、運費和物流成本，這反映在我們的第一季度指南中。但是，正如您將在我們的年度指導中看到的那樣，我們預計隨著時間的推移，這種利潤率壓力將開始緩解。從長遠來看，我們面前有許多多年的增長機會，這讓我對我們的未來充滿信心。

There are currently more technology transitions occurring concurrently than I've seen in 20 years. long-term megatrends like hybrid cloud, hybrid work, security, IoT, 400 gig and beyond, 5G and WiFi 6 as well as the move towards application observability will likely provide tailwinds to our growth. With our portfolio in such a strong position to help our customers, I'm quite optimistic about what's ahead.

目前同時發生的技術轉型比我 20 年來看到的還要多。混合雲、混合工作、安全、物聯網、400 gig 及以上、5G 和 WiFi 6 等長期大趨勢以及向應用程序可觀察性的轉變可能會為我們的增長提供順風。由於我們的產品組合在幫助我們的客戶方面處於如此強勢的地位，我對未來的發展非常樂觀。

Before we discuss the quarter in detail, I want to provide some additional color on the supply situation and how we continue to build greater resiliency. After a challenging April due to the COVID-related shutdowns in Shanghai, and the impact on semiconductor and power supplies, overall supply constraints began to ease slightly at the back half of the fourth quarter and continuing into the start of Q1. While the component supply headwinds remain, they have begun to show early signs of easing.

在我們詳細討論本季度之前，我想就供應情況以及我們如何繼續建立更大的彈性提供一些額外的顏色。由於上海與 COVID 相關的停工以及對半導體和電源的影響，在經歷了充滿挑戰的 4 月之後，整體供應限制在第四季度後半段開始略有緩解，並持續到第一季度初。儘管組件供應逆風仍然存在，但它們已經開始顯示出緩解的早期跡象。

The decisions we made and the multiple actions we have taken over the past 2 years are helping to improve our resiliency and will help offset cost inflation. These include adding new suppliers, leveraging alternative suppliers, redesigning hundreds of products to use alternative components with similar capability and targeted price increases, all of which position us for the future. These actions, along with the tremendous efforts by our supply chain team and the investments we've made in building capacity to meet growth have the potential to drive momentum into fiscal '23.

我們在過去 2 年做出的決定和我們採取的多項行動有助於提高我們的彈性，並將有助於抵消成本膨脹。其中包括增加新的供應商、利用替代供應商、重新設計數百種產品以使用具有相似功能的替代組件和目標價格上漲，所有這些都為我們的未來奠定了基礎。這些行動，加上我們供應鏈團隊的巨大努力以及我們在建設能力以滿足增長方面所做的投資，有可能推動 23 財年的發展勢頭。

Moving to performance highlights in the quarter. We delivered revenue above the high end of our guidance range, and non-GAAP EPS came in at the high end of our guidance range. We achieved healthy operating margins and generated solid cash flow, and returned nearly $4 billion to Cisco stockholders through cash dividends and share repurchases.

轉向本季度的業績亮點。我們的收入高於我們指導範圍的高端，非公認會計原則每股收益處於我們指導範圍的高端。我們實現了健康的營業利潤率並產生了穩健的現金流，並通過現金股息和股票回購向思科股東返還了近 40 億美元。

With annual product order growth of 14% for the fiscal year, we exited the year with record product backlog. In addition, our RPO totaled more than $31 billion, and when combined with low cancellation rates, which remain below pre-pandemic levels, this sets the stage for increased visibility and strong revenue growth as we head into fiscal '23.

本財年產品訂單年增長率為 14%，我們以創紀錄的產品積壓退出了這一年。此外，我們的 RPO 總額超過 310 億美元，再加上仍低於大流行前水平的低取消率，這為我們進入 23 財年時提高知名度和強勁的收入增長奠定了基礎。

In terms of our product orders this quarter, we delivered the second highest orders in absolute dollars in the history of the company. It was second only to our performance in Q4 of fiscal '21, and on a sequential basis, it was up greater than 15% with strong growth in enterprise, commercial and public sector. From an annual growth rate perspective, we clearly faced some very tough comparisons from the record orders we saw in Q4 last year, where we had over 30% growth. Based on that, the year-over-year decline was not a surprise nor is it concerning. It's important to keep in mind that in the near term, the rate and pace of our revenue growth is much more a function of component availability than on our quarterly product order growth.

就本季度的產品訂單而言，我們交付了公司歷史上絕對金額第二高的訂單。它僅次於我們在 21 財年第四季度的表現，連續增長超過 15%，企業、商業和公共部門的強勁增長。從年增長率的角度來看，與去年第四季度的創紀錄訂單相比，我們顯然面臨著一些非常艱難的比較，當時我們的增長率超過了 30%。基於此，同比下降並不令人意外，也不令人擔憂。重要的是要記住，在短期內，我們收入增長的速度和速度更多地取決於組件可用性，而不是我們的季度產品訂單增長。

With RPO of over $31 billion, almost $17 billion of which will be recognized as revenue over the next 12 months, and a record backlog, we have great top line visibility. Thanks to the relentless effort of our entire organization, the business remains stronger than before the pandemic.

RPO 超過 310 億美元，其中近 170 億美元將被確認為未來 12 個月的收入，以及創紀錄的積壓，我們有很好的收入可見度。由於我們整個組織的不懈努力，業務仍然比大流行之前更強大。

From a demand perspective, we continue to experience solid customer activity beyond our ability to deliver as is reflected in the growth of our backlog that we saw throughout the quarter. While our business is not immune to macro trends, we will remain disciplined in our operations while benefiting from robust multiyear investment trends and the technology transitions I mentioned earlier.

從需求的角度來看，我們繼續體驗到超出我們交付能力的穩定客戶活動，這反映在我們在整個季度看到的積壓訂單的增長中。雖然我們的業務不能免受宏觀趨勢的影響，但我們將在運營中保持自律，同時受益於強勁的多年投資趨勢和我之前提到的技術轉型。

Our innovation is helping our customers and partners navigate an increasing amount of complexity, and there is a greater sense of urgency to leverage leading-edge technologies to deliver on their strategic objectives. This is leading them to consistently look to Cisco and our unique and differentiated innovation to help them advance their most pressing business priorities.

我們的創新正在幫助我們的客戶和合作夥伴應對越來越多的複雜性，並且利用領先技術實現其戰略目標的緊迫感更加強烈。這導致他們始終關注思科和我們獨特的差異化創新，以幫助他們推進最緊迫的業務優先事項。

We recently held our Cisco Live customer event in person for the first time in 3 years and had over 15,000 in attendance, including thousands of our largest customers and many more participating virtually. Our discussions with them focused on strategic projects, supply assurance and the critical role Cisco can play to support their long-term technology road maps. They did not indicate any fundamental shift in their commitment to technology investments.

我們最近 3 年來首次親自舉辦了 Cisco Live 客戶活動，有超過 15,000 人參加，其中包括我們的數千名最大客戶和更多虛擬參與者。我們與他們的討論集中在戰略項目、供應保證以及思科在支持他們的長期技術路線圖方面可以發揮的關鍵作用。他們沒有表明他們對技術投資的承諾有任何根本性的轉變。

Regardless of what the coming quarters may bring, we have a proven track record of being able to adjust in difficult environments. Our value proposition to our customers remains as strong as ever.

無論未來幾個季度可能帶來什麼，我們都有能夠在困難環境中進行調整的良好記錄。我們對客戶的價值主張一如既往地強大。

In our web scale business, we continue to see momentum even as the business becomes larger, as product orders were up more than 50% on a trailing 4-quarter basis. We see significant opportunity ahead as these customers build out massively scalable cloud networks and increasingly turn to Cisco to help them meet accelerating demand for cloud services. Our leadership in silicon, optics, software and systems enables us to win as hyperscalers value industry-leading performance and innovation.

在我們的網絡規模業務中，即使業務變得更大，我們仍繼續看到勢頭，因為產品訂單在過去 4 個季度的基礎上增長了 50% 以上。隨著這些客戶構建可大規模擴展的云網絡並越來越多地求助於思科來幫助他們滿足對雲服務不斷增長的需求，我們看到了巨大的機遇。我們在芯片、光學、軟件和系統方面的領先地位使我們能夠在超大規模企業重視行業領先的性能和創新時獲勝。

We are expanding our footprint, driven by data center build-outs, with our Silicon One-based Cisco 8000 routers, the fastest-growing platforms in Cisco's history. Together with optics from Acacia, we have a strong foundation for 400-gig and beyond to rearchitect the Internet with routed optical networking. In addition, we recently booked and shipped our first 800-gig systems to 1 of our web scale customers.

在數據中心擴建的推動下，我們正在擴大我們的足跡，使用基於 Silicon One 的 Cisco 8000 路由器，這是思科歷史上增長最快的平台。與來自 Acacia 的光學器件一起，我們為 400 gig 及更高版本通過路由光學網絡重新架構 Internet 奠定了堅實的基礎。此外，我們最近為我們的一個網絡規模客戶預訂並運送了我們的第一個 800 gig 系統。

On the IoT front, we also now have more than 200 million connected things on our cloud platform with growth driven by connected car. We finished fiscal '22 with product orders in excess of $1 billion and growing double digits. We continue to make progress on our transformation to more software and subscription-based recurring revenue. ARR of approximately $23 billion was up 8% with product ARR increasing by 13%.

在物聯網方面，我們現在在我們的雲平台上擁有超過 2 億個聯網事物，增長受到聯網汽車的推動。我們在 22 財年完成了超過 10 億美元的產品訂單，而且還在以兩位數的速度增長。我們繼續在向更多軟件和基於訂閱的經常性收入轉型方面取得進展。大約 230 億美元的 ARR 增長了 8%，產品 ARR 增長了 13%。

We had strong subscription revenue this quarter, driven by our growing portfolio of recurring offers. While our software revenue was down slightly, once supply constraints improve and we begin to increase product shipments, we expect to see an improvement in software, subscription and services that are attached to hardware products in our backlog.

在我們不斷增長的經常性優惠組合的推動下，我們本季度的訂閱收入強勁。雖然我們的軟件收入略有下降，但一旦供應限制得到改善並且我們開始增加產品出貨量，我們預計我們積壓的硬件產品所附帶的軟件、訂閱和服務將會有所改善。

The investments we've made in innovation are paying off as our competitive position is very strong. In Q4, we introduced several new cloud delivered innovations across our portfolio to help organizations drive productivity and resiliency. We launched Nexus Cloud, a platform to help our customers deploy, manage and operate their data center networks from the cloud. In addition, we introduced Calisti and Panoptica, 2 new cloud-native API-first tools for faster and better application development.

我們在創新方面的投資正在獲得回報，因為我們的競爭地位非常強大。在第四季度，我們在我們的產品組合中引入了幾項新的雲交付創新，以幫助組織提高生產力和彈性。我們推出了 Nexus Cloud，這是一個幫助客戶從雲端部署、管理和運營數據中心網絡的平台。此外，我們還引入了 Calisti 和 Panoptica，這兩種新的雲原生 API 優先工具可用於更快更好地開發應用程序。

We also announced AppDynamics Cloud, a next-generation version of our observability platform for cloud native applications. In addition, we shared our strategy to help our customers connect their entire security architecture with our new platform, Cisco Security Cloud, which will be a game changer for them as they look to secure their multi-cloud environments with a single cloud-delivered security platform.

我們還發布了 AppDynamics Cloud，這是我們用於雲原生應用程序的可觀察性平台的下一代版本。此外，我們還分享了幫助客戶將其整個安全架構與我們的新平台 Cisco Security Cloud 連接起來的策略，這將改變他們的遊戲規則，因為他們希望通過單一云交付的安全性來保護他們的多雲環境平台。

This is just 1 part of our broader security innovation cycle. Building on the double-digit growth we saw in security this quarter, we are investing across our security business, focusing on cloud-based offerings, best-in-class AI-driven threat detection and end-to-end security architectures. These innovations position us well for leadership in the security market.

這只是我們更廣泛的安全創新周期的一部分。基於本季度我們在安全領域看到的兩位數增長，我們正在對我們的安全業務進行投資，重點關注基於雲的產品、一流的人工智能驅動的威脅檢測和端到端安全架構。這些創新使我們在安全市場處於領先地位。

In summary, we executed well on our strategy and transformation during what remains a very dynamic time. This led to a strong close to our fiscal year, setting several records across our business, thanks to the solid execution from our teams, our market-leading innovation and our continued growth of recurring revenue. We also took decisive actions to help offset inflation and build resiliency in our supply chain, while investing in our business to position us well for long-term growth.

總之，在充滿活力的時期，我們的戰略和轉型執行得很好。由於我們團隊的紮實執行力、市場領先的創新和經常性收入的持續增長，這導致我們的財政年度強勁接近，在我們的業務中創造了多項紀錄。我們還採取了果斷行動，幫助抵消通貨膨脹並增強供應鏈的彈性，同時投資於我們的業務，為我們的長期增長做好準備。

The power of our technology continues to be a critical driver of economic growth and productivity. Our results and outlook demonstrate the critical role that Cisco plays as a leader in bringing innovative technology solutions to customers today and into the future. As we move into fiscal '23, we remain guided by our purpose-led culture and deeply committed to delivering value for our customers, partners and investors, as well as continuing to be an amazing place to work for our employees.

我們技術的力量仍然是經濟增長和生產力的關鍵驅動力。我們的結果和展望表明，思科作為領導者在為當今和未來的客戶提供創新技術解決方案方面發揮著關鍵作用。隨著我們進入 '23 財年，我們仍然以目標為導向的文化為指導，並堅定地致力於為我們的客戶、合作夥伴和投資者創造價值，並繼續為我們的員工提供令人驚嘆的工作場所。

I will now turn it over to Scott.

我現在將把它交給斯科特。

Thanks, Chuck. I'll first provide some detail on our financial results for the quarter, then cover the full fiscal year, followed by our guidance. .

謝謝，查克。我將首先提供有關我們本季度財務業績的一些細節，然後涵蓋整個財年，然後是我們的指導。 .

Our overall Q4 results reflect strong execution in an environment with continuing supply constraints, and as Chuck mentioned, increased costs reflected in our gross margins. We're very pleased that our shipment levels were above our expectations and that total revenue of $13.1 billion exceeded the high end of our guidance range as we saw improvement in supply as a direct result of the numerous actions we've taken over multiple quarters.

我們第四季度的整體業績反映了在供應持續受限的環境中執行力強勁，正如查克所說，我們的毛利率反映了成本增加。我們很高興我們的出貨量超出了我們的預期，並且 131 億美元的總收入超過了我們指導範圍的高端，因為我們看到供應的改善是我們在多個季度採取的眾多行動的直接結果。

Our non-GAAP operating margin was 32.4%, down 110 basis points and in line with our guidance. Non-GAAP net income was $3.4 billion, down 3%, and non-GAAP earnings per share was $0.83, coming in at the high end of our guidance range.

我們的非公認會計原則營業利潤率為 32.4%，下降 110 個基點，符合我們的指導。非 GAAP 淨收入為 34 億美元，下降 3%，非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.83 美元，處於我們指導範圍的高端。

Looking at our Q4 revenue in more detail. Total product revenue was $9.7 billion, and service revenue was $3.4 billion, both flat year-over-year. Within product revenue, secure Agile Networks was down 1%. Switching declined in both data center and campus driven by supply constraints. We saw growth in our Catalyst 9000, Nexus 9000 and Meraki switching offerings. Enterprise routing decline primarily driven by Edge and SD-WAN, offset by strength in access. Wireless had strong growth, driven primarily by our Meraki wireless offerings. We also had double-digit growth in servers.

更詳細地查看我們的第四季度收入。產品總收入為 97 億美元，服務收入為 34 億美元，同比均持平。在產品收入中，安全敏捷網絡下降了 1%。由於供應限制，數據中心和園區的交換量均有所下降。我們看到 Catalyst 9000、Nexus 9000 和 Meraki 交換產品的增長。企業路由下降主要是由 Edge 和 SD-WAN 推動的，但被訪問強度所抵消。無線業務增長強勁，主要受我們 Meraki 無線產品的推動。我們的服務器也有兩位數的增長。

Internet for the future was down 10% with strength in web scale revenue, offset by declines in cable, edge and optical. Collaboration was up 2%, driven by growth in collaboration devices, partially offset by declines in our meetings and calling offerings.

未來的互聯網下降了 10%，網絡規模收入的增長被有線電視、邊緣和光纖的下降所抵消。在協作設備增長的推動下，協作增長了 2%，但部分被我們的會議和電話服務的下降所抵消。

End-to-end security had record revenue with strong growth of 20%, driven by strength across the entire portfolio. Our Zero Trust portfolio continues to perform well, driven by strong performance in our dual offering. Optimized application experiences had solid growth of 8%, driven by double-digit growth in our SaaS-based offering, ThousandEyes.

在整個投資組合實力的推動下，端到端安全性收入實現了 20% 的強勁增長。在我們雙重產品的強勁表現的推動下，我們的零信任投資組合繼續表現良好。在我們基於 SaaS 的產品 ThousandEyes 實現兩位數增長的推動下，優化的應用程序體驗實現了 8% 的穩健增長。

We continue to make progress on our transformation metrics as we shift our business to more software and subscriptions. We saw strong performance in our ARR of $22.9 billion, an increase of 8% with product ARR growth of 13% driven by several large software transactions closing during the quarter. Total software revenue was $3.9 billion, a decrease of 2% with software subscription revenue up 1%. Bear in mind, we continue to have well over $2 billion of software orders in our product backlog. 83% of the software revenue was subscription based, which is up 2 percentage points year-over-year.

隨著我們將業務轉向更多的軟件和訂閱，我們繼續在轉型指標上取得進展。我們看到我們的 ARR 表現強勁，達到 229 億美元，增長 8%，產品 ARR 增長 13%，這是由於本季度完成的幾項大型軟件交易。軟件總收入為 39 億美元，下降 2%，軟件訂閱收入增長 1%。請記住，我們的產品積壓訂單中仍然有超過 20 億美元的軟件訂單。 83% 的軟件收入來自訂閱，同比增長 2 個百分點。

Total subscription revenue was $5.8 billion, an increase of 2%. Total subscription revenue represented 44% of Cisco's total revenue. And RPO was $31.5 billion, up 2%, product RPO increased 6%. Service RPO decreased 1%, and our total short-term RPO grew 4% to $16.9 billion. Total product orders in Q4 were the second highest in our history.

訂閱總收入為 58 億美元，增長 2%。訂閱總收入佔思科總收入的 44%。 RPO 為 315 億美元，增長 2%，產品 RPO 增長 6%。服務 RPO 下降了 1%，我們的短期 RPO 總額增長了 4%，達到 169 億美元。第四季度的總產品訂單是我們歷史上第二高的。

While product orders were down 6% for the quarter, it's important to keep in mind the compare against 31% growth a year ago, which was the highest product orders in our history. On a sequential basis, product order growth was up over 15% with double-digit growth in enterprise, commercial and public sector.

雖然本季度產品訂單下降了 6%，但重要的是要記住與一年前 31% 的增長相比，這是我們歷史上最高的產品訂單。在環比基礎上，產品訂單增長超過 15%，企業、商業和公共部門實現了兩位數的增長。

Looking at our geographic segments year-over-year. The Americas was down 9%, EMEA down 4%, and APJC up 1%. In our customer markets, enterprise was down 15%, public sector was down 3%, service provider was down 7% and commercial was up 1%. From a non-GAAP perspective, total gross margin came in at 63.3%, down 230 basis points year-on-year; product gross margin was 61.3%, down 370 basis points; and service gross margin was 69%, up 160 basis points.

逐年查看我們的地理細分市場。美洲下降 9%，EMEA 下降 4%，APJC 上升 1%。在我們的客戶市場中，企業下降了 15%，公共部門下降了 3%，服務提供商下降了 7%，商業上升了 1%。從非美國通用會計準則來看，總毛利率為 63.3%，同比下降 230 個基點；產品毛利率為61.3%，下降370個基點；服務毛利率為69%，上升160個基點。

In our product gross margin, higher component and commodity costs as well as higher freight and logistics related to supply constraints were the predominant drivers of lower-than-expected margins. We saw increased benefits from the pricing actions we have taken as well as for mix.

在我們的產品毛利率中，較高的組件和商品成本以及與供應限制相關的更高的運費和物流是利潤率低於預期的主要驅動因素。我們看到我們採取的定價行動以及組合帶來的收益增加。

Once again, we had a significant increase in our backlog levels for both hardware and software, well beyond our normal historical levels. As Chuck said, our ending product backlog was a record for the year. And just a reminder, backlog is not included as part of the $31.5 billion in remaining performance obligations.

再一次，我們的硬件和軟件積壓水平顯著增加，遠遠超出了我們正常的歷史水平。正如查克所說，我們的最終產品積壓是今年的記錄。提醒一下，315 億美元的剩餘履約義務不包括積壓訂單。

It's important to note that the combined total of our backlog and RPO gives us great visibility into our fiscal '23 top line growth. We ended Q4 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $19.3 billion. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $3.7 billion, down 18% year-over-year, primarily driven by advanced payments and inventory purchases to secure future supply. In capital allocation, we returned $4 billion to shareholders during the quarter, was comprised of $2.4 billion of share repurchases and $1.6 billion for our quarterly cash dividend.

重要的是要注意，我們的積壓訂單和 RPO 的總和使我們對 23 財年的收入增長有了很大的了解。我們在第四季度結束時的現金、現金等價物和投資總額為 193 億美元。本季度的經營現金流為 37 億美元，同比下降 18%，主要受預付款和庫存採購的推動，以確保未來供應。在資本分配方面，我們在本季度向股東返還了 40 億美元，其中包括 24 億美元的股票回購和 16 億美元的季度現金股息。

Turning to the full fiscal year results. Overall, our financial results were solid in a year where we faced significant supply constraints, rising component, and related costs and the war in Ukraine. Our financial performance was highlighted by strong demand with product order growth of 14%, including 2 quarters of truly impressive 33% growth, though our performance was clearly impacted by the supply constraints.

轉向整個財政年度的結果。總體而言，在我們面臨嚴重供應限制、組件上升、相關成本和烏克蘭戰爭的一年中，我們的財務業績穩健。強勁的需求突顯了我們的財務業績，產品訂單增長了 14%，其中包括兩個季度真正令人印象深刻的 33% 增長，儘管我們的業績明顯受到供應限制的影響。

Revenue was $51.6 billion, up 3%, while non-GAAP earnings per share were up 4% at $3.36. In terms of our software metrics, total software revenue was flat at $15.1 billion, with the product portion up 2%, 81% of software revenue was subscription-based, which is up 2 percentage points year-on-year. Total subscription revenue was $22.4 billion, an increase of 2%, and total subscription revenue represented 43% of Cisco's total revenue.

收入為 516 億美元，增長 3%，而非美國通用會計準則每股收益增長 4%，至 3.36 美元。在我們的軟件指標方面，軟件總收入持平於 151 億美元，其中產品部分增長 2%，81% 的軟件收入是基於訂閱的，同比增長 2 個百分點。訂閱總收入為 224 億美元，增長 2%，訂閱總收入佔思科總收入的 43%。

Total non-GAAP gross margin was 64.6%, down 150 basis points and our non-GAAP operating margin was 33.6%, up 10 basis points. On the bottom line, non-GAAP net income was $14.1 billion, up 3%. We delivered operating cash flow of $13.2 billion, down 14% compared to fiscal '21, driven primarily by advanced payments for inventory purchases to secure component supply. While these payments had a negative impact on full year operating cash flow, these and our other related actions helped to improve the supply situation in Q4 and future quarters.

非 GAAP 總毛利率為 64.6%，下降 150 個基點，我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 33.6%，上升 10 個基點。歸根結底，非美國通用會計準則淨收入為 141 億美元，增長 3%。我們提供了 132 億美元的運營現金流，與 21 財年相比下降了 14%，這主要是由於為確保零部件供應而進行的庫存採購預付款所推動的。雖然這些付款對全年經營現金流產生了負面影響，但這些以及我們的其他相關行動有助於改善第四季度和未來幾個季度的供應狀況。

From a capital allocation perspective, we returned approximately $14 billion in value to our shareholders via cash dividends and stock repurchases, representing 109% of our free cash flow. This was comprised of $7.7 billion of share repurchases and $6.2 billion in quarterly cash dividends. We also increased our dividend for the 11th consecutive year in fiscal '22, reinforcing our commitment to returning excess capital to our shareholders and our confidence in the strength and stability of our ongoing cash flows. Our strong balance sheet and overall financial position is clearly a competitive advantage in tough environments.

從資本配置的角度來看，我們通過現金股息和股票回購向股東返還了大約 140 億美元的價值，占我們自由現金流的 109%。其中包括 77 億美元的股票回購和 62 億美元的季度現金股息。我們還在 22 財年連續第 11 年增加了股息，加強了我們向股東返還多餘資本的承諾，以及我們對持續現金流的強度和穩定性的信心。我們強大的資產負債表和整體財務狀況顯然是在艱難環境中的競爭優勢。

To summarize, we executed well in Q4 and had a solid fiscal year in a highly complex environment while continuing to make progress on our business model shift and making strategic investments in innovation to capitalize on our significant growth opportunities and expanding addressable markets. The demand for our products and services is strong as we drive innovation through continued investment and the shift to more recurring revenue, delivering growth and driving shareholder value.

總而言之，我們在第四季度表現良好，在高度複雜的環境中實現了穩健的財年，同時繼續在業務模式轉變方面取得進展，並對創新進行戰略投資，以利用我們的重大增長機會和擴大潛在市場。隨著我們通過持續投資和轉向更多經常性收入、實現增長和推動股東價值來推動創新，對我們產品和服務的需求強勁。

Turning to our financial guidance for Q1. We expect revenue growth to be in the range of 2% to 4%. We anticipate non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 63% to 64%. Our non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 31.5% to 32.5%. and non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $0.82 to $0.84.

轉向我們對第一季度的財務指導。我們預計收入增長將在 2% 至 4% 之間。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率將在 63% 至 64% 之間。我們的非公認會計原則營業利潤率預計在 31.5% 至 32.5% 之間。非公認會計原則每股收益預計在 0.82 美元至 0.84 美元之間。

For fiscal '23, our guidance is as follows: We expect revenue growth to be in the range of 4% to 6% year-on-year; non-GAAP earnings per share guidance is expected to range from $3.49 to $3.56, also up 4% to 6% year-on-year. In both our Q1 and full year guidance, we're assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 19%.

對於 23 財年，我們的指導如下：我們預計收入同比增長在 4% 至 6% 之間；非 GAAP 每股收益指引預計在 3.49 美元至 3.56 美元之間，同比增長 4% 至 6%。在我們的第一季度和全年指導中，我們假設非公認會計原則的有效稅率為 19%。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

我現在把它轉回給瑪麗蓮，這樣我們就可以進入問答環節了。

Thanks, Scott. Michelle, let's go ahead and queue up the list of Q&A.

謝謝，斯科特。米歇爾，讓我們繼續排隊問答列表。

Sami Badri with Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的薩米·巴德里。

I actually had 2 questions. First thing is for fiscal year '23 your revenue growth expectations came in a bit stronger than most Street expectations. And maybe you could just walk us through the composition of the segment and what's driving the strength and maybe which segments may potentially lag some of the stronger segments. And then my other question is, maybe you could just give us some color on the composition of gross margin regarding pricing and productivity in fiscal 4Q of '22, that would be helpful.

我實際上有2個問題。首先是 23 財年，您的收入增長預期比大多數華爾街預期要強一些。也許你可以讓我們了解一下細分市場的構成以及推動力量的因素，也許哪些細分市場可能落後於一些更強大的細分市場。然後我的另一個問題是，也許你可以給我們一些關於 22 財年第四季度定價和生產力的毛利率構成的顏色，這會很有幫助。

Yes. Thanks, Sami. As we look at the forecast that we've given you for fiscal '23, balance growth again, 4% to 6% growth on the top line, 4% to 6% growth on the bottom line. when you start to peel that back, of course, we don't guide at that level. What we have seen, as you'd expect, is, again, nice demand, as Chuck talked about on the call, through the end of the fourth quarter, but a little bit different by industry vertical. Retail, not surprisingly, under a little bit of pressure. Financial services under a little bit of pressure.

是的。謝謝，薩米。當我們查看我們為您提供的 23 財年預測時，再次平衡增長，收入增長 4% 至 6%，利潤增長 4% 至 6%。當然，當您開始剝離時，我們不會在那個級別上進行指導。正如您所期望的那樣，我們所看到的再次是良好的需求，正如查克在電話會議上所說的那樣，直到第四季度末，但在垂直行業略有不同。毫不奇怪，零售業面臨著一點壓力。金融服務有點壓力。

Pretty much strength across most of the rest of the sector, a little bit of pressure in health care as well. So that's -- as we roll into fiscal '23, that's what we're seeing kind of vertical by vertical.

該行業其他大部分地區的實力相當強勁，醫療保健領域也有一點壓力。所以這就是 - 當我們進入 23 財年時，這就是我們看到的垂直方向。

We saw good double-digit growth sequentially, again, Q3 to Q4 because the year-on-year compares are quite difficult with that 31% growth we had a year ago, but good sequential growth, if you look at it by customer market in both enterprise, public sector and commercial. So again, seeing pretty balanced growth across the board. And that's our expectation as we roll into fiscal '23.

我們再次看到了良好的兩位數連續增長，第三季度到第四季度，因為與一年前 31% 的增長相比，同比增長相當困難，但是如果你從客戶市場來看的話，連續增長很好企業、公共部門和商業。因此，再次看到全面平衡的增長。這是我們進入 23 財年時的期望。

On the gross margin question, we are getting a benefit from price. One of the things that we've talked about, though, is there's a lag between the price increases that we put in place and what we see actually showing up in reported revenues. And I know you know this from prior quarters, Sami, we saw some of that benefit in Q4, and you'll see this in our filings in our 10-Q -- our 10-K filing for the end of the quarter. It's about 1% up year-on-year gross margin driven by price, and then, of course, the offset coming from higher cost, both component costs and freight and logistics.

在毛利率問題上，我們從價格中受益。不過，我們討論過的一件事是，我們實施的價格上漲與我們在報告收入中實際看到的價格之間存在滯後。我知道你從前幾個季度就知道這一點，薩米，我們在第四季度看到了一些好處，你會在我們的 10-Q 文件中看到這一點——我們在本季度末提交的 10-K 文件。在價格的推動下，毛利率同比增長約 1%，當然，還有來自更高成本的抵消，包括組件成本以及運費和物流。

Tim Long with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的蒂姆·朗。

Just wanted to ask on maybe 2 quick ones. One on the software business. Chuck, you talked about kind of flattish performance, but still have carrying a lot of backlog there. That's been a case for a few quarters here. So maybe you could just talk a little bit about what you think it's going to get taken to get this business moving a little bit more aggressively towards that software model.

只是想問兩個快速的。一是軟件業務。 Chuck，你談到了一種平淡的表現，但仍然有很多積壓。這已經有幾個季度了。因此，也許您可以稍微談談您認為將採取什麼措施來使該業務更積極地朝著該軟件模型發展。

And then I did want to follow up on the cloud vertical, still running really strong orders there. Can you talk a little bit about is the breadth of portfolio shipping into that growing? I know the 8-K is strong, but any other highlights of strength there, that would be great.

然後我確實想跟進云垂直，仍然在那裡運行非常強大的訂單。你能談談投資組合運輸的廣度是否會增長？我知道 8-K 很強大，但是那裡的任何其他強度亮點都很棒。

Thanks, Tim. So let's start with the software. And you're right, the software is flattish. There's 2 things that I would point out. We have -- we obviously have been transitioning from perpetual software model, which is in decline, and that's by design. We want to decline our perpetual software and increase our subscription software. And the way I think about it is our perpetual was down roughly 14% during the quarter. And we also, as Scott said, have over $2 billion, and it's actually a higher number exiting Q4 than it was in Q3 of software in backlog, as you said, connected to hardware. So those are 2 contributing factors, which is why we really should be thinking about the ARR situation because that's reflective of the ACV that we basically had exiting the quarter, and it's -- so that's an indicator of future software revenue.

謝謝，蒂姆。因此，讓我們從軟件開始。你是對的，這個軟件是平淡無奇的。我要指出兩點。我們已經 - 我們顯然一直在從永久軟件模型過渡，該模型正在下降，這是設計使然。我們想拒絕我們的永久軟件並增加我們的訂閱軟件。我的看法是，我們的永續合約在本季度下跌了大約 14%。正如斯科特所說，我們也有超過 20 億美元，實際上，第四季度的積壓軟件數量比第三季度要高，正如你所說，連接到硬件。所以這是兩個促成因素，這就是為什麼我們真的應該考慮 ARR 情況，因為這反映了我們基本上退出本季度的 ACV，而且它是 - 所以這是未來軟件收入的指標。

So we're comfortable with it. And I think once we get through some of the supply chain stuff, that we'll start to see that be a little more reflective of what we've been planning on.

所以我們對此感到滿意。而且我認為，一旦我們完成了一些供應鏈的工作，我們就會開始看到這更能反映我們一直在計劃的事情。

On the cloud vertical, we continue to win new insertions. That business is approaching billion annually now. After just 2 or 3 short years ago, it was pretty close to nothing. And so the teams have done a fantastic job. It is -- obviously, over the last 4 quarters, it's grown 50%. From a revenue perspective, it's very supply chain dependent. So I wouldn't get too wrapped up about the revenue versus the orders right now. I think we'll work our way through that over the next to quarters. But overall, really pleased with where we are.

在雲垂直領域，我們繼續贏得新的插入。現在，這項業務每年接近 10 億美元。在短短的兩三年前，它幾乎沒有。因此，團隊做得非常出色。很明顯，在過去的四個季度中，它增長了 50%。從收入的角度來看，它非常依賴供應鏈。因此，我現在不會過於關注收入與訂單的關係。我認為我們將在接下來的幾個季度中解決這個問題。但總的來說，對我們所處的位置非常滿意。

Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

羅德霍爾與高盛。

I guess I wanted to dig into this order growth a little bit. Obviously, very strong numbers there, but somewhat inconsistent with the way that we would have expected them to come out? And I just wanted -- and the thing that's inconsistent is you guys are saying up over 15% in the quarter, but then down 6% on a year-over-year basis. We would have calculated closer to flat, like minus $1 million. So we're just curious whether there was any restatement of the July quarter last year. You guys had called out 31% order growth there or anything else going on with the dynamics of these orders that might help us to understand that got discrepancy at least in our numbers. And then I've got a follow-up.

我想我想深入研究一下這個訂單增長。顯然，那裡的數字非常強勁，但與我們預期它們出現的方式有些不一致？我只是想要 - 不一致的是你們說本季度增長超過 15%，但隨後同比下降 6%。我們會計算得更接近持平，比如負 100 萬美元。因此，我們只是好奇去年 7 月季度是否有任何重述。你們說那裡的訂單增長了 31%，或者這些訂單的動態發生了其他任何事情，這可能有助於我們理解至少在我們的數字上存在差異。然後我有一個跟進。

Yes, Rod, I saw some folks who thought we would be down 15%. So I think it's just different ways of modeling. When we were thinking about this question, and we obviously know that 31% and then in Q1, we're comparing is 33%. We were trying to find other ways to look at the business to indicate the reality of the demand signal. So let me just give you a few of those characteristics.

是的，羅德，我看到一些人認為我們會下跌 15%。所以我認為這只是不同的建模方式。當我們考慮這個問題時，我們顯然知道 31%，然後在第一季度，我們比較的是 33%。我們試圖尋找其他方式來看待業務，以表明需求信號的真實性。所以讓我給你一些這些特徵。

First of all, from a product order perspective, as I said, it was the second highest in history, which would be only eclipsed by Q4 a year ago. And it grew 15%. And on a sequential basis, that's actually in range with our historicals. If you go back to -- if you take out last year, which was an abnormal sequential then it's very much in line. It's in the range of what we've seen for the last 10 years, the 15%. You had enterprise, public sector and commercial all growing in solid double digits on a sequential basis, and again, growing sequentially off our largest third quarter product bookings ever. We also have continued growth in the pipeline. As we exited Q4, we saw very good growth in pipeline, which is a good indicator of going forward.

首先，從產品訂單的角度來看，正如我所說，它是歷史上第二高的，一年前的 Q4 才會黯然失色。它增長了 15%。在連續的基礎上，這實際上在我們的歷史範圍內。如果你回到 - 如果你去年取出，這是一個異常的順序，那麼它非常符合。它在我們過去 10 年所見的範圍內，即 15%。您的企業、公共部門和商業部門都連續以兩位數的穩定增長，並且再次從我們有史以來最大的第三季度產品預訂量中連續增長。我們還在繼續增長。當我們退出第四季度時，我們看到管道的增長非常好，這是一個很好的未來指標。

And the final thing I would tell you is that if you -- the way our sales teams forecasted the quarter at the beginning of month 3, they revised their forecast for the quarter, and they finished stronger than they thought they would, and we had strength as we exited the quarter. And so linearity was solid. And so we just haven't seen anything that would indicate a significant shift in the demand signal from our customers.

我要告訴你的最後一件事是，如果你——按照我們的銷售團隊在第 3 月初預測季度的方式，他們修改了對季度的預測，結果比他們想像的要強，我們有我們退出本季度時的實力。所以線性是穩固的。因此，我們還沒有看到任何表明我們客戶的需求信號發生重大變化的情況。

Yes, Rod, so there was no -- to be clear on your question, there was no change in the way we report year-on-year. It's exactly the same. The only other thing that I would add, too, to the comments that Chuck just made, linearity in the quarter was quite strong. In fact, the last week of the quarter was actually the same size as it had been in the prior year and the month-to-month linearity was exactly in line with last year and with prior year's expectations. So we saw strength right through the end of Q4.

是的，羅德，所以沒有 - 明確你的問題，我們每年報告的方式沒有變化。完全一樣。我還要補充的唯一一件事是，對於 Chuck 剛剛發表的評論，該季度的線性度非常強。事實上，本季度最後一周的規模實際上與去年相同，月度線性度與去年和去年的預期完全一致。因此，我們在第四季度末看到了實力。

Got you. Okay. And just as a follow-up, can I ask you guys on inventory? I know inventories moved up quite a bit again. Do you think inventory starts to come down next quarter? Or just curious kind of where we are in that ebb and flow of inventory given the supply shortages and so on.

得到你。好的。作為後續，我可以問你們庫存嗎？我知道庫存再次上升了很多。您認為下個季度庫存會開始下降嗎？或者只是好奇，鑑於供應短缺等等，我們在庫存的潮起潮落中處於什麼位置。

Yes. What's sitting in inventory, Rod, is the rest of the parts that aren't under constraint so that as the ones that are constrained free up, of course, we can square the set and get the product shipped out the door to our customers.

是的。 Rod，庫存中剩下的是不受約束的其餘零件，因此，作為受約束的零件，我們當然可以將設備擺正，然後將產品運到我們的客戶手中。

So it is growing. It's up about $1 billion year-on-year, sitting at $2.5 billion. Our advanced payments are up as well. Both of those are a bit of a headwind to cash flows, as you saw. But yes, it's much more a statement of making sure we've got everything we need so that as those constrained parts clear up, which we saw a little bit of that towards the end of Q4, we can square the sets and get it out the door and in the hands of our customers.

所以它正在增長。同比增長約 10 億美元，達到 25 億美元。我們的預付款也增加了。如您所見，這兩者都對現金流造成了不利影響。但是，是的，這更像是一個聲明，確保我們擁有我們需要的一切，以便隨著那些受限制的部分清理乾淨，我們在第四季度末看到了一點點，我們可以擺正集合併把它拿出來門和我們的客戶手中。

Amit Daryanani from Evercore.

來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I have 2 as well. The question I have is just on gross margins or maybe when I think about the EPS guide of 4% to 6% for fiscal '23. How are you thinking about gross margins in that backdrop? And then are buybacks embedded in that guide as well?

我也有2個。我的問題只是毛利率，或者當我考慮到 23 財年 4% 到 6% 的每股收益指南時。在這種背景下，您如何看待毛利率？然後該指南中是否也包含回購？

Yes. So there's no added buyback in there. We've talked about our cap allocation policy. Our share buybacks have both a systemic component to it that's just offsetting the shares that we issued through our equity plans and an opportunistic component.

是的。所以那裡沒有額外的回購。我們已經討論了我們的上限分配政策。我們的股票回購既有系統性的成分，只是抵消了我們通過股權計劃發行的股票，也有機會主義的成分。

On the -- what's our expectation on gross margin through the year? Of course, we don't guide that for the full year, Amit. But what I'd say is my expectation is as we go through the year and we can work through the backlog, we'll begin to ship out of that backlog more and more orders that actually reflect the price increases that we put in place last year. And as we do, of course, that will be a tailwind to margins throughout the year. So I would see margins going up as much as 50 basis points between our first quarter guide and where we end the year.

關於 - 我們對全年毛利率的預期是什麼？當然，阿米特，我們不會全年指導這一點。但我想說的是，我的期望是，隨著我們度過這一年，我們可以處理積壓的訂單，我們將開始從積壓的訂單中發貨越來越多的訂單，這些訂單實際上反映了我們上次實施的價格上漲年。當然，正如我們所做的那樣，這將是全年利潤的順風。因此，我會看到在我們的第一季度指南和年底之間的利潤率上升多達 50 個基點。

And then if I can just follow up, there's been a fair amount of fear that higher interest rates look like to impact enterprise spending across the board. Your trend, your guide doesn't seem to suggest you see any signs of that. But I'd love to get your perspective, what are you hearing from your customers as the macro environment is changing? And really related to that, are you seeing any shift in how they procure or what they want to buy from you as the macro environment changes?

然後，如果我能跟進，人們相當擔心更高的利率似乎會影響企業的全面支出。您的趨勢，您的指南似乎沒有建議您看到任何跡象。但我很想听聽您的看法，隨著宏觀環境的變化，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？真正與此相關的是，隨著宏觀環境的變化，您是否看到他們採購方式或他們想從您那裡購買什麼的任何變化？

Yes, it's a good question. And we -- what I would say is that we are not immune to any significant change in the macro that would result in enterprise spending shifting up. My comments are just that we haven't seen a material demand signal change as we've entered into Q1. So that's where we are.

是的，這是個好問題。而且我們 - 我要說的是，我們不能倖免於宏觀的任何重大變化，這將導致企業支出增加。我的評論只是在我們進入第一季度時，我們還沒有看到實質性的需求信號變化。這就是我們所在的位置。

I think on last call, I believe I talked a lot about how I believe that post pandemic, the view of technology by our customers is much different than it would have been 7, 8, 9 years ago there. I think if you ask our customers if they would pause spending during a crisis, they would probably respond, when is there not going to be a crisis given what we've dealt with the last 3 years? And so in general, we don't hear a lot of difference relative to your question around have we seen any different buying behavior or what are they trying to buy from us. In some cases, customers are looking for a little shorter ROI, so that affects how they think about what products they're buying in these kinds of times. In some cases, customers are looking ahead to lead times to fiscal '23 budgets and trying to better understand what their budgets are going to look like because the shipments and the payments would be in the '23 time frame. But other than that, we're not seeing anything significantly different.

我想在最後一次電話會議上，我相信我談了很多關於我如何相信在大流行之後，我們的客戶對技術的看法與 7、8、9 年前的情況大不相同。我想如果你問我們的客戶他們是否會在危機期間暫停消費，他們可能會做出回應，考慮到我們過去 3 年所處理的情況，什麼時候不會出現危機？因此，總的來說，相對於您的問題，我們沒有聽到很多差異，我們是否看到任何不同的購買行為或他們試圖從我們這裡購買什麼。在某些情況下，客戶正在尋求更短的投資回報率，這會影響他們對在這種情況下購買什麼產品的看法。在某些情況下，客戶期待提前到 '23 財年預算，並試圖更好地了解他們的預算將是什麼樣子，因為發貨和付款將在 '23 時間框架內。但除此之外，我們沒有看到任何明顯的不同。

Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley Investment Research.

摩根士丹利投資研究公司的 Meta Marshall。

Great. A couple of questions for me. Maybe just on kind of increasing supply availability, I just wanted to get a sense of how much of that do you feel like is just some of these lagging edge components are starting to become more available? And how much of that is a result of kind of redesigns that you've done over the course of the year that have just kind of given you more optionality?

偉大的。我有幾個問題。也許只是在增加供應可用性的情況下，我只是想了解一下您覺得這些落後的邊緣組件中有多少開始變得更可用？其中有多少是您在這一年中所做的重新設計的結果，這些重新設計給了您更多的選擇權？

And then maybe just a second question for you, Chuck. Just as we've seen an evaluation correction on a lot of kind of the software space. Like how does that change your view of strategic activity?

然後也許只是第二個問題，查克。正如我們已經看到對許多軟件空間的評估修正一樣。比如這會如何改變你對戰略活動的看法？

Thanks, Meta. So on the first one, I'd say that it's a combination of both of those. We -- as we said earlier, we saw increased volumes in the broker network during the quarter, which candidly was an opportunity we took advantage of, which is why you saw the higher top line, we were able to get more products shipped to our customers, which we obviously were very happy about, but we had to pay more for those components, and we think that will continue probably over the next 60 to 90 days. And then we think some of those purchases will begin to become available from the same suppliers that have put the excess inventory into the marketplace.

謝謝，梅塔。所以在第一個方面，我會說這是兩者的結合。我們 - 正如我們之前所說，我們在本季度看到經紀人網絡的交易量增加，坦率地說，這是我們利用的機會，這就是為什麼您看到更高的收入，我們能夠將更多產品運送到我們的客戶，我們顯然對此感到非常高興，但我們不得不為這些組件支付更多費用，我們認為這可能會在接下來的 60 到 90 天內持續下去。然後我們認為其中一些採購將開始從將多餘庫存投放市場的同一供應商處獲得。

At the same time, we have -- and I think I said this on our last call, we've had hundreds of product design -- redesigns going on. And 2 of our high-volume products that also have good margins will begin to ship in the redesigned space sort of towards the latter into Q1 into the balance of the year, which we think will be helpful as well. So it's a combination of both of those things. And that's what gives us a little bit of optimism that things will continue to improve during the year.

與此同時，我們 - 我想我在上次電話會議上說過，我們已經進行了數百種產品設計 - 重新設計正在進行中。我們的 2 款大批量產品也具有良好的利潤率，將開始在重新設計的空間中發貨，在今年餘下的第一季度，我們認為這也會有所幫助。所以這是兩者的結合。這就是讓我們對今年情況將繼續改善的一點點樂觀。

On the second question, on the valuations, I've had this one a few times and I've been asked if our M&A strategy has changed because of the valuations. And I've said that our strategy hasn't changed, but the openness to talk to us from some of the companies that thought they had different strategic exits might have changed. And so we haven't changed our strategy. We just think that it potentially creates more opportunity for us with companies that might not have been willing because they thought there was a high-flying IPO ahead of them that they may not believe is the case right now. And the market is obviously taking a much different view on profitability versus just growth.

關於第二個問題，關於估值，我有過幾次這樣的問題，有人問我是否因為估值而改變了我們的併購策略。我說過我們的戰略沒有改變，但是一些認為他們有不同戰略退出的公司與我們交談的開放性可能已經改變。所以我們沒有改變我們的策略。我們只是認為，它可能為我們與那些可能不願意的公司創造更多機會，因為他們認為他們面前有一個高飛的 IPO，他們可能不相信現在的情況。顯然，市場對盈利能力和增長的看法截然不同。

Tal Liani with Bank of America Securities.

美國銀行證券公司的 Tal Liani。

I'm trying to distinguish between the growth next year, which is probably a function of better supplies and backlog, very high backlog in between the spending environment, and you started touching on it when we asked about the enterprise. So let me maybe expand the question about the environment.

我試圖區分明年的增長，這可能是更好的供應和積壓的函數，消費環境之間的積壓非常高，當我們詢問企業時你開始談到它。所以讓我也許擴展一下關於環境的問題。

When you go through your various, what you call, use of coal theaters, and you go through cloud and service providers and enterprise, et cetera, can you take us through your expectations for the spending environment and maybe how long it takes to close deals versus before when you look into the next few quarters? I'm trying to understand if the environment as you see it today, whether it deteriorates or not at all? Or which are the areas where we see a slowdown or not?

當您了解您所稱的各種煤炭影院的使用，以及您通過雲和服務提供商以及企業等等時，您能否帶我們了解您對消費環境的期望，以及完成交易需要多長時間與您展望未來幾個季度之前相比？我試圖了解您今天所看到的環境是否惡化或根本沒有惡化？或者哪些領域我們看到放緩？

And I have a second question, just if you can touch on security. Security was good again. It was good, actually much better, and there is improvement throughout the quarter, if you can touch on your position in security.

我還有第二個問題，如果你能談到安全問題。安全性又好了。這很好，實際上好多了，而且整個季度都有進步，如果你能談談你在安全方面的地位的話。

Great. Thanks, Tal. So we -- I think Scott has touched on it that the revenue for fiscal year '23 is much more a byproduct of component availability than it necessarily is connected to demand. But I will tell you that our current models would have us exiting fiscal '23 with roughly the same backlog as we're entering FY '23.

偉大的。謝謝，塔爾。所以我們 - 我認為 Scott 已經提到，23 財年的收入更多地是組件可用性的副產品，而不是與需求相關的副產品。但我會告訴你，我們目前的模型將使我們退出 23 財年，積壓的工作與我們進入 23 財年的積壓大致相同。

And so -- and then as you look at the different segments that you've described, we had small business growth in Q4. I think it was double digits on a global basis, which is a good sign that that's continuing to grow. And then when we dissect it, commercial grew 39% a year ago, so sequentially in double digits. Enterprise was up in the mid-20s last year, so sequentially growing in high double digits. Those are good signs for us. And then the pipeline growth that we've seen as we exited the quarter just says that there's still a lot out there.

因此 - 然後當您查看您所描述的不同細分市場時，我們在第四季度有小企業增長。我認為這是全球範圍內的兩位數，這是一個持續增長的好跡象。然後當我們剖析它時，商業廣告一年前增長了 39%，因此連續兩位數增長。企業去年在 20 年代中期增長，因此連續以兩位數的高位增長。這些對我們來說都是好兆頭。然後我們在本季度結束時看到的管道增長只是表明還有很多。

And so right now, we're modeling for just the things to continue as we see them and taking into consideration as you ask me to go around the regions, I think Asia and Europe, we had conversations with our team this week and they seem to -- they continue to be reasonably optimistic as we are in the Americas. And so it was a pretty consistent story. Scott?

所以現在，我們正在為我們看到的事情繼續建模，並考慮到你讓我去地區，我認為亞洲和歐洲，我們本週與我們的團隊進行了對話，他們似乎到 - 他們繼續保持相當樂觀，就像我們在美洲一樣。所以這是一個非常一致的故事。斯科特?

Yes. Probably the only thing I'd add is as you look at that 4% to 6% growth that we've forecasted now for fiscal '23, it is absolutely supply constrained. So while the supply situation we saw late in our fourth quarter that we just closed, there were some easing. Easing doesn't mean it's over. We're going to have supply constraints throughout fiscal '23 and just a few areas. Were it not for those, we would be growing much more quickly. It's not a case of demand. We're not demand-constrained. We were supply constrained in fiscal '23.

是的。可能我唯一要補充的是，當你看到我們現在預測的 23 財年的 4% 到 6% 的增長時，這絕對是供應受限。因此，雖然我們在第四季度末看到剛剛關閉的供應情況，但出現了一些緩解。寬鬆並不意味著結束。在整個 23 財年和少數幾個領域，我們將面臨供應限制。如果不是因為這些，我們的增長速度會更快。這不是需求的情況。我們不受需求限制。我們在 23 財年受到供應限制。

And when it comes to your answer about service providers and cloud, same as the answer for the enterprise, meaning you don't expect much of a change as of now in the environment?

當談到您關於服務提供商和雲的答案時，與企業的答案相同，這意味著您不期望目前環境發生太大變化？

No, we don't see anything. What I would tell you about the service provider business is that because of the long lead times, we started a process of doing long-term planning with them that I've talked about before. And so we actually have deferred bookings that don't show up anywhere right now, approaching $0.5 billion, that because they're outside of our standard shipment window when they would like to get those. So we've got orders out quarters from now from them that are all noncancelable because of the contracts that we've done. So we feel good about that momentum. We think that those customers will continue to spend in all of the trends that we've talked about. And given that we just shipped our first 800-gig system to 1 of the web scale players, we can continue to see them take advantage of these higher speed platforms. Now, Tal, you also asked about security?

不，我們什麼都看不到。關於服務提供商業務，我想告訴你的是，由於交貨時間長，我們開始了一個與他們進行長期規劃的過程，我之前已經談到過。所以我們實際上已經推遲了現在沒有出現在任何地方的預訂，接近 5 億美元，因為當他們想要獲得這些時，它們不在我們的標準發貨窗口之外。因此，我們已經從他們那裡得到了幾個季度的訂單，由於我們已經完成了合同，這些訂單都是不可取消的。因此，我們對這種勢頭感覺良好。我們認為這些客戶將繼續在我們討論過的所有趨勢中消費。鑑於我們剛剛將我們的第一個 800 gig 系統交付給了其中一個網絡規模的播放器，我們可以繼續看到他們利用這些更高速度的平台。現在，塔爾，你也問過安全問題嗎？

Yes, I did.

是的，我做到了。

So we saw -- I think Scott mentioned this in his -- we had some really good growth and some backlog movement, to be honest, on the firewall side. So we had a really solid quarter on shipments from a firewall perspective. But we also had strength in our endpoint business. We had strengthen in our Zero Trust business. And we're continuing to -- that is the #1 investment area for the company this year, and it is -- we're continuing to drive, I think, greater innovation there and evolve that portfolio as we've described strategically. So I think we'll just continue to see improvement. But this quarter did get a boost from us clearing some backlog in the firewall space.

所以我們看到——我認為斯科特在他的文章中提到了這一點——我們在防火牆方面有一些非常好的增長和一些積壓的活動。因此，從防火牆的角度來看，我們的出貨量非常穩健。但我們在端點業務方面也有實力。我們加強了零信任業務。我們將繼續——這是該公司今年的第一大投資領域，而且我認為，我們將繼續在那裡推動更大的創新，並按照我們在戰略上描述的那樣發展該投資組合。所以我認為我們會繼續看到改進。但本季度確實因為我們清除了防火牆領域的一些積壓而得到了提振。

Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

Congrats on the good execution this quarter. I guess I wanted to dive into the order numbers a bit here. And historically, you've talked about sort of SMB or commercial being a bit more of a leading indicator into enterprise trends. But when you look at the order trends right now, it does seem like you're seeing sort of a bit more of a sort of volatility around the enterprise orders related to the commercial segment. And so I wanted to see if there's anything that you can help us in terms of thinking about sort of the trends we're seeing there?

祝賀本季度的良好執行。我想我想在這裡深入了解一下訂單號。從歷史上看，您曾談到 SMB 或商業在某種程度上是企業趨勢的領先指標。但是，當您現在查看訂單趨勢時，您似乎確實看到了與商業部門相關的企業訂單的某種波動。所以我想看看在思考我們在那裡看到的趨勢方面是否有什麼可以幫助我們的？

And just a second one there is sort of collaboration, and it seems like a very tough backdrop to turn around collaboration results in. So how should we think about sustainability of the growth here for collaboration?

只有第二個是合作，這似乎是一個很難扭轉合作結果的背景。那麼我們應該如何考慮合作增長的可持續性？

Yes, Samik, thank you. I'll comment on the -- the small business was again strong, as I spoke about just a moment ago. I think it's really important when you have these abnormal year-over-year comparisons for us to find other ways to assess the strength, which is why we looked at the sequential growth. And sequentially, they're both up in double digits, both commercial and enterprise, which against a very large quarter a quarter ago. And so we're comfortable right now that they're moving as they should be.

是的，薩米克，謝謝。正如我剛才談到的那樣，我將評論小企業再次強大。我認為，當您進行這些異常的同比比較時，找到其他方法來評估實力非常重要，這就是我們查看連續增長的原因。依次，它們在商業和企業方面都以兩位數增長，與一個季度前的一個非常大的季度相比。所以我們現在很舒服，他們正在按照他們應該的方式移動。

Candidly, for commercial to grow at all after the extreme growth that we had a year ago was actually quite positive. So I actually view that favorably given the strength that they showed a year ago, it was probably the highest growth rate we've had in forever in that space or at least in the last 10 years. So overall, I think we don't see any sort of significant demand shift, as I said earlier.

坦率地說，在我們一年前的極端增長之後，商業增長實際上是非常積極的。所以我實際上認為，鑑於他們一年前表現出的實力，這可能是我們在該領域或至少在過去 10 年中永遠擁有的最高增長率。所以總的來說，正如我之前所說，我認為我們沒有看到任何重大的需求變化。

On the collab front, it's a little bit like the security message that I gave a few minutes ago. We had a -- we did clear a lot of device business in the backlog. So the growth, as Scott said in his opening comments, was driven largely by the device business and offset by some declines we had in meetings and calling.

在協作方面，它有點像我幾分鐘前給出的安全信息。我們有一個 - 我們確實清除了積壓中的很多設備業務。因此，正如斯科特在開場評論中所說，增長主要是由設備業務推動的，並被我們在會議和電話會議上的一些下降所抵消。

But I will say that the teams are working really hard on the meetings and calling side. Those have been strong. The calling side has been strong for us in the past few quarters. The product portfolio is in really good shape. The Net Promoter Score for our meetings platform is now 64 and that was 1 million customer responses. So it's a huge -- it's a hugely improved experience. And this year, the teams are really focused on trying to get that back to growth. But we've got a lot of work to do.

但我要說的是，團隊在會議和通話方面都非常努力。那些一直很強大。在過去的幾個季度裡，跟注方對我們來說一直很強大。產品組合的狀態非常好。我們會議平台的淨推薦值現在為 64，即 100 萬客戶回复。所以這是一個巨大的 - 這是一個巨大的改進體驗。今年，這些團隊真正專注於努力恢復增長。但是我們有很多工作要做。

Ittai Kidron from Oppenheimer.

來自奧本海默的Ittai Kidron。

A couple from me. Maybe first on the supply chain. I just want to make sure I understand your expectations for component availability. And maybe you could talk about price changes of components. It doesn't sound like you're assuming any changes in pricing. Is that correct? And if there will be a change in pricing, what are the odds that you actually take down the prices of your products?

我的一對。也許首先在供應鏈上。我只是想確保我了解您對組件可用性的期望。也許你可以談談組件的價格變化。聽起來您並沒有假設定價有任何變化。那是對的嗎？如果定價發生變化，您實際降低產品價格的可能性有多大？

Yes. This -- I'll start, Chuck, and if you want to jump in, let's do that. From a component availability standpoint, Ittai, that's been the most fluid area of our forecast over the last several quarters. And as we look ahead, we did see signs of stability during Q4. And as I said, in the late in Q4 that we just closed, we actually saw some improvement. The way that improvement showed up was availability of some of the constrained parts that we have been chasing in the broker network. And obviously, when you buy from the broker network, you pay a premium for those. And you see that reflected in the gross margins.

是的。這個——我開始吧，查克，如果你想加入，我們就開始吧。從組件可用性的角度來看，Ittai 是我們過去幾個季度預測中最不穩定的領域。展望未來，我們確實在第四季度看到了穩定的跡象。正如我所說，在我們剛剛關閉的第四季度末，我們實際上看到了一些改進。出現改進的方式是我們在代理網絡中一直在追求的一些受限部分的可用性。顯然，當您從經紀人網絡購買時，您需要為此支付溢價。你會看到這反映在毛利率上。

I think there'll still be some of that in Q1. You see that reflected in our gross margin guide in Q1. And then it gets better as the year goes on, not because -- I'm not assuming any price declines or any cost declines coming from our suppliers. I think the -- I don't see them lining up to come back and say, "Hey, good news, Scott and Chuck. We're going to charge you less for the component parts." There may be some benefit in freight and logistics. We'll see as commercial airlift comes back online. I think the benefits we'll get will be much more from shipping more out of our backlog that are orders that were received after we did the price increases last year.

我認為第一季度仍然會有一些。您會在我們第一季度的毛利率指南中看到這一點。然後隨著時間的推移，情況會變得更好，這不是因為——我不假設我們的供應商會出現任何價格下降或任何成本下降。我認為——我沒有看到他們排著隊回來說，“嘿，好消息，斯科特和查克。我們將向你收取更少的零部件費用。”在貨運和物流方面可能會有一些好處。我們將看到商業空運重新上線。我認為我們將從積壓的訂單中獲得更多的好處，這些訂單是我們去年提價後收到的訂單。

So as I think about your fiscal year fiscal '23 guidance, what is the underlying assumption regarding volume component availability exiting fiscal '23? How much better are you expecting it to be in your guidance? What's embedded there?

因此，當我考慮您的 23 財年指導時，關於退出 23 財年的數量組件可用性的基本假設是什麼？你期望它在你的指導下好多少？那裡嵌入了什麼？

Yes. Again, our guidance assumes that we continue to be supply constrained through the year. As I said, if we could get more supply, we would be growing more quickly in fiscal '23. So we'll continue to be supply constrained. Our modeling shows that our backlog as we exit fiscal '23, Chuck touched on this earlier, that we think the dollar value, obviously, it's not the same orders, but the dollar value is roughly unchanged from the dollar value we roll into fiscal '23 with. So I think we'll continue to face component availability headwinds throughout the year.

是的。同樣，我們的指導假設我們全年繼續受到供應限制。正如我所說，如果我們能獲得更多供應，我們將在 23 財年增長得更快。因此，我們將繼續受到供應限制。我們的模型顯示，當我們退出 '23 財政年度時，我們的積壓工作，查克早些時候談到了這一點，我們認為美元價值，顯然，它不是相同的訂單，但美元價值與我們進入財政的美元價值大致相同' 23 與。因此，我認為我們將在全年繼續面臨組件可用性的逆風。

Would you expect your order growth in fiscal '23 to exceed your 4% to 6% top line guidance?

您是否預計您在 23 財年的訂單增長將超過您 4% 至 6% 的頂線指導？

Yes. We don't forecast order growth, as you know, Ittai. So that's not one that I want to jump into at this point. I think probably the key takeaway would be we're not demand constrained, we're supply constrained as you look at '23.

是的。如您所知，Ittai，我們不預測訂單增長。因此，這不是我現在想要討論的內容。我認為關鍵的要點可能是我們不受需求限制，當您查看 23 年時，我們受到供應限制。

Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

保羅·西爾弗斯坦和考恩。

I know my questions have been touched on previous comments and responses, Chuck. But I want to ask you anyway the big picture questions, one on revenue, one on margins.

我知道我的問題已經被之前的評論和回复所觸及，查克。但無論如何我想問你一些宏觀問題，一個是關於收入的，一個是關於利潤的。

The first one: From your comments and the comments of your peers about networking, it looks like networking demand is in the best shape it's been in since the bubble of the late '90s. And that, of course, was a bubble. But it's -- the supply constraints, it's making it hard to discern what's going on from a competitive landscape standpoint. And I'm sure you guys are aware, I know it's come up in previous calls, but there's a sense, I think, created by your competitors, rightly or wrongly, but I want to let you respond that in campus enterprise in particular, which is still core to what you all do, that you've got competitive pressures. Any thoughts you can share on what you're seeing in your campus enterprise business, both on the wireline switching and on the wireless LAN side? You clearly talked about strength from an order perspective, but I want to let you respond. And then I've got a question on margins.

第一個：從您和同行對網絡的評論來看，網絡需求似乎處於自 90 年代後期泡沫以來的最佳狀態。當然，那是一個泡沫。但這是 - 供應限制，這使得從競爭格局的角度很難辨別正在發生的事情。我相信你們都知道，我知道它在之前的電話會議中出現過，但我認為，有一種感覺，是由你的競爭對手創造的，無論對錯，但我想讓你們特別在校園企業中做出回應，這仍然是你們所做工作的核心，你們面臨著競爭壓力。您有什麼想法可以分享您在校園企業業務中看到的有線交換和無線 LAN 方面的情況嗎？您從訂單的角度清楚地談到了實力，但我想讓您回應一下。然後我有一個關於利潤的問題。

Okay. First of all, I think market share is a very difficult thing to assess right now, to your point, because of everything sitting in the backlog. I do believe that Q4 was the second largest Cat 9K shipment quarter in the history of the product, so that would indicate that it's strong. And I think as we continue to clear our backlog or work through it, not clear it, but as we work through our backlog, you'll see some share come out. But I would encourage you to look at market share over a trending quarter time frame as opposed to a point in time because you just never know.

好的。首先，我認為現在市場份額是一件非常難以評估的事情，就你而言，因為一切都在積壓中。我確實相信第四季度是該產品歷史上第二大 Cat 9K 出貨量季度，因此這表明它很強勁。我認為，當我們繼續清理我們的積壓工作或解決它時，不要清除它，但當我們處理我們的積壓工作時，你會看到一些分享。但我鼓勵您查看趨勢季度時間框架內的市場份額，而不是某個時間點，因為您永遠不知道。

We've got some products that we've been redesigning that we have backlog that we'll begin to ship in mass that will actually flip market share numbers pretty significantly. And my competitor is going to be telling you exactly what I'm telling you right now. So it's something you just got to watch over time.

我們有一些我們一直在重新設計的產品，我們有積壓的產品，我們將開始大規模出貨，這實際上會顯著改變市場份額。我的競爭對手會準確地告訴你我現在告訴你的內容。因此，隨著時間的推移，您必須注意這一點。

And so I'm not -- I mean, clearly, we have competition in the campus. We have very strong competition. We always have. And -- but given the volume of the products that we're shipping right now, I don't feel like we're losing significant share.

所以我不是——我的意思是，很明顯，我們在校園裡有競爭。我們的競爭非常激烈。我們總是有。而且——但考慮到我們現在出貨的產品數量，我不覺得我們正在失去很大的份額。

Okay. And also from a good picture perspective, once upon a time, networking in general, and Cisco, in particular, was the canary in the coal mine. When there was a macro downturn, you guys were the first to see it networking was the easiest thing to push off, everyone let their networks run hotter, where the enterprise carriers, et cetera, that seems to flip where networking is actually not seeing weakness that other technology product markets are seeing. I just want to make sure that I've got that concept right.

好的。而且從好的角度來看，曾幾何時，一般的網絡，特別是思科，是煤礦中的金絲雀。當出現宏觀經濟衰退時，你們是第一個看到網絡是最容易推動的事情，每個人都讓他們的網絡運行得更熱，企業運營商等似乎在網絡實際上沒有看到弱點的地方翻轉其他技術產品市場正在看到的。我只是想確保我的這個概念是正確的。

And the real question though on the margin side, you all were at record or near record gross and operating margin levels going into the pandemic before input costs, ICE, semis freight, logistics, et cetera, spikes. Any thoughts on where you can get -- where the long-term model can get back to once supply chain normalizes. I assume that freight and logistics mix and pricing will go back to pre-pandemic levels. It will help you and others out. But I also assume that the increase in semi ICE input costs are not going back to where they were, you'll be able to offset some but probably not all of that with your price increases. Let me let you respond.

真正的問題是，儘管在利潤率方面，在投入成本、ICE、半成品貨運、物流等飆升之前，你們所有人都處於創紀錄或接近創紀錄的毛利率和營業利潤率水平。關於您可以從哪裡獲得的任何想法——一旦供應鏈正常化，長期模型可以回到哪裡。我認為貨運和物流的組合和定價將回到大流行前的水平。它將幫助您和其他人。但我也假設半 ICE 投入成本的增加不會回到原來的水平，你可以通過價格上漲來抵消部分但可能不是全部。讓我讓你回應。

Yes. So let me take the networking -- the resilience of the networking market first. And then, Scott, you take the margin question. So Paul, the -- I think you're right. And I've said this repeatedly, I think what what's driven this is there are 2 things. Number one, the pandemic revealed the impact of not keeping your core infrastructure technology up to speed. Customers struggled, and I think it made them realize that they had a lot of tech debt that needed to be dealt with. And they don't want to get in that position again. So that's the first thing.

是的。所以讓我先談談網絡——網絡市場的彈性。然後，斯科特，你提出了保證金問題。所以保羅，我認為你是對的。我反复說過，我認為是什麼驅動了這件事，有兩件事。第一，大流行揭示了不讓您的核心基礎設施技術跟上速度的影響。客戶苦苦掙扎，我認為這讓他們意識到他們有很多技術債務需要處理。他們不想再回到那個位置。所以這是第一件事。

But the second thing is all of these mega trends that I mentioned in my opening comments, I mean, these customers are rearchitecting their entire infrastructure for the first time in years to deal with hybrid cloud and to deal with all of the mobile workers. We see IoT exploding. You see all of the climate activity is going to be a tailwind to our business because you have to connect all these industrial systems to be able to control them. You've got to shift to 400 gig. I mean let me just give -- I'll give you a data point, 400 gig ports we're up almost 700% year-over-year for us. We've got over 1,000 customers now that have bought 400 gig, and we shipped our first 800 gig.

但第二件事是我在開場評論中提到的所有這些大趨勢，我的意思是，這些客戶多年來第一次重新架構他們的整個基礎架構，以處理混合雲和所有移動工作人員。我們看到物聯網爆炸式增長。您會看到所有氣候活動都將成為我們業務的順風車，因為您必須連接所有這些工業系統才能控制它們。你必須轉向400演出。我的意思是讓我給出——我會給你一個數據點，400 個演出端口，我們同比增長了近 700%。現在我們已經有超過 1,000 名客戶購買了 400 個演出，並且我們運送了我們的第一個 800 個演出。

So it's just all these trends continue, you got 5G, you've got WiFi 6. You've got this application observability, the rearchitecture of applications. So I think it's a combination of the realization the pandemic brought on around technology debt and never letting them get to that point, and then these mega trends that are going on. And Scott, do you want to take the gross margin question?

所以只是所有這些趨勢都在繼續，你有 5G，你有 WiFi 6。你有這個應用程序的可觀察性，應用程序的重新架構。因此，我認為這是對大流行帶來的技術債務和從未讓他們達到這一點的認識的結合，然後是這些正在發生的大趨勢。斯科特，你想問毛利率問題嗎？

Yes. I think, Paul, on the gross margin question, I think you nailed the trends. I don't expect input costs, particularly around semis, to come down. I look forward to the day that I come to the office and there's a message from our semiconductor suppliers saying, "Hey, good news, your price is going down." I just don't see that happening. Price will offset part of it. I think you got that part right, too.

是的。我認為，保羅，在毛利率問題上，我認為你抓住了趨勢。我不認為投入成本，特別是在半成品附近，會下降。我期待著有一天我來到辦公室，我們的半導體供應商發來一條消息說：“嘿，好消息，你們的價格正在下降。”我只是沒有看到這種情況發生。價格會抵消一部分。我認為你也說對了那部分。

I think the other -- the only thing I would add that probably in your thinking, but you didn't say it, so I will. Over the longer term, as we mix more software in, that will be a tailwind at the gross margin line. So just add that to your thinking, and I think you've got it nailed.

我認為另一個——我可能會在你的想法中添加它，但你沒有說，所以我會說。從長遠來看，隨著我們混合更多軟件，這將是毛利率線的順風。因此，只需將其添加到您的想法中，我認為您已經掌握了它。

Scott, can you go back to that record level?

斯科特，你能回到那個記錄水平嗎？

I don't want to get into forecasting the longer term at that level of granularity right now, Paul.

Paul，我現在不想在這種粒度級別上進行長期預測。

Ben Bollin with Cleveland Research.

克利夫蘭研究中心的本·博林。

The first one, you talked about backlog expected to sustain at current levels exiting fiscal '23. I think you said software backlog was north of $2 billion again in the quarter, but what was the product backlog? Where did that finish the quarter?

第一個，您談到了預計將維持在退出 23 財年的當前水平的積壓。我想你說本季度軟件積壓再次超過 20 億美元，但產品積壓是多少？那個季度在哪裡結束？

Yes. We didn't give that stat and that's not one that I want to start giving every quarter. Ben, what we did say qualitatively is it grew again. And what I'll tell you is it was up actually up triple digits again on a year-on-year basis. The overall backlog. Software backlog is a pretty significant headwind to our software growth it's well north of the $2 billion that we talked about.

是的。我們沒有給出那個統計數據，這不是我想每個季度都開始給出的數據。 Ben，我們從質量上說它再次增長了。我要告訴你的是，它實際上又同比增長了三位數。整體積壓。軟件積壓對我們的軟件增長來說是一個相當大的逆風，它遠遠超過我們談到的 20 億美元。

Okay. And then one other item. I'm not asking for a forecast on RPO. I guess that's a precursor to sort of asking for one. But when you think about RPO in the concept of the broader 4% to 6% rev guide for the year, is the assumption as you shift more to software that RPO should consistently outperform your top line growth? How do you think about the relationship for those 2 metrics longer term? .

好的。然後是另一項。我不是要求對 RPO 進行預測。我想這是要求一個的前兆。但是，當您在更廣泛的 4% 到 6% 的年度修訂指南的概念中考慮 RPO 時，是否假設隨著您更多地轉向軟件，RPO 應該始終超過您的收入增長？您如何看待這兩個指標的長期關係？ .

Yes. There's a couple of dynamics going on in RPO. So I'd say, in general, you're right, obviously, duration has an effect on RPO as well, but it varies a bit by product line. So for the quarter, we just announced the 6% product RPO growth. We had double-digit product RPO growth in secure Agile Networks, in optimized app experiences and in security, I almost forgot. And we had high single-digit growth in Internet for the future. I'd say that the headwind there, of course, is collab from an RPO standpoint.

是的。 RPO 中存在一些動態。所以我想說，總的來說，你是對的，顯然，持續時間也會對 RPO 產生影響，但它會因產品線而有所不同。因此，對於本季度，我們剛剛宣布了 6% 的產品 RPO 增長。我們在安全的敏捷網絡、優化的應用程序體驗和安全方面實現了兩位數的產品 RPO 增長，我幾乎忘記了。並且我們在未來的互聯網上有很高的個位數增長。我會說，從 RPO 的角度來看，那裡的逆風當然是協作。

So longer term, I think you'd expect those dynamics to continue. And as we turn around the go-to-market and the sales side of collab, that will flip from being a headwind to more of a tailwind on product RPO growth.

所以從長遠來看，我認為你會期望這些動態繼續下去。隨著我們轉向合作的上市和銷售方面，這將從逆風轉變為產品 RPO 增長的順風。

Okay. We have time for 1 more question.

好的。我們有時間再回答 1 個問題。

Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的西蒙利奧波德。

I've got one sort of short term and one longer term. On the short-term side, we heard some anecdotes that some multi product projects have been split up because of the supply chain constraints. And I want to get a sense of whether or not that's something that's happening as a way for you to work around some of the bottlenecks and to get some projects out the door that might not have and how that might factor into the numbers.

我有一種短期的和一種長期的。在短期方面，我們聽到一些軼事，因為供應鏈限制，一些多產品項目被拆分。我想了解這是否是正在發生的事情，作為解決一些瓶頸的一種方式，並將一些可能沒有的項目推出門外，以及這可能如何影響數字。

And in terms of the longer term, Todd Nightingale had made a comment in a meeting about Cisco no longer managing to the org chart. And I wanted to see if maybe, Chuck, you can elaborate on what the implications are by that particular statement.

就長期而言，托德·南丁格爾在一次會議上發表了關於思科不再管理組織結構圖的評論。我想看看，查克，您是否可以詳細說明該特定聲明的含義。

Well Simon, if I could ask you to clarify for me is on the short-term question, I didn't quite understand. You're saying that we are breaking up orders or we're asking customers -- or customers are making that decision? What exactly was the question? .

好吧，西蒙，如果我能請你為我澄清一下短期問題，我不太明白。您是說我們正在分解訂單，或者我們正在詢問客戶——或者客戶正在做出決定？究竟是什麼問題？ .

Yes. I'm not 100% sure, but I think it's customers asking to break apart some larger projects where they're buying a multitude of components from Cisco and essentially saying, "Let's not wait for the components you can't get. Ship me what you can, I'll get the other stuff elsewhere. " I've heard these as anecdotes, and I'm trying to understand how substantive it is.

是的。我不是 100% 肯定，但我認為是客戶要求拆分一些更大的項目，他們從思科購買大量組件，並且基本上是在說，“讓我們不要等待你無法獲得的組件。寄給我你能做到的，我會在別處得到其他的東西。”我聽說這些是軼事，我試圖了解它的實質性。

Yes. I have not heard any discussion on that particular topic, but it wouldn't surprise me. I mean, if I was a customer and if I had a project that I could actually drive some constructive ROI by doing part of it, then I would split it up to try to get the part that I could get, for sure.

是的。我沒有聽到任何關於該特定主題的討論，但這不會讓我感到驚訝。我的意思是，如果我是一個客戶，並且如果我有一個項目，我可以通過做其中的一部分來推動一些建設性的投資回報率，那麼我肯定會把它分開來嘗試得到我能得到的部分。

I'll tell you what we are seeing, we are -- we have customers are being really good with us about telling us what they desperately need and what they're okay waiting for. They've been really great about saying, look, I'm not going to come tell you this guy is falling, and tell you, I need everything in backlog tomorrow. But here's what I really need, here's what I need this time, here's what I need this time. And so we've been working through that a lot with customers, and that may be a variation of what you've heard. So that's the only thing that I can think of.

我會告訴你我們所看到的，我們是——我們的客戶對我們非常友好，告訴我們他們迫切需要什麼以及他們可以等待什麼。他們說得真好，看，我不會來告訴你這傢伙正在摔倒，告訴你，我明天需要積壓的所有東西。但這就是我真正需要的，這就是我這次需要的，這就是我這次需要的。因此，我們一直在與客戶進行大量合作，這可能與您所聽到的有所不同。所以這是我唯一能想到的。

On the Todd comment on the org chart, I think the comment is we don't want to ship our org chart. And we talked at Cisco Live about a huge number of cross-business unit technology combinations that we were delivering. I'll give you a couple of examples, but this is what he's talking about. Like our Secure Connect+ that we started shipping includes SD-WAN technology from the enterprise networking team and cloud security from the security team, brought together in a managed as-a-service offer for customers. There's integration going on between AppDynamics and Thousand Eyes that actually will be bidirectional intelligence. It will flow between those 2. You've got AppDynamics doing the same thing with Talos and other aspects of the security portfolio for that exact reason. You've got -- before Jonathan took on all of the portfolio that Todd had and his own, there was a lot of work Todd was doing with Jonathan's team around private 5G and how do we build private 5G services through a combination of those. So that's what Todd is talking about, and I think the teams have done a good job of really leading with what the customer needs and not building from the way the org chart is built. And that's what he's talking about.

關於組織結構圖上的托德評論，我認為評論是我們不想發布我們的組織結構圖。我們在 Cisco Live 上討論了我們提供的大量跨業務部門技術組合。我會給你舉幾個例子，但這就是他所說的。就像我們開始交付的 Secure Connect+ 一樣，包括來自企業網絡團隊的 SD-WAN 技術和來自安全團隊的雲安全，為客戶提供託管即服務產品。 AppDynamics 和 Thousand Eyes 之間正在進行集成，實際上將是雙向智能。它將在這兩者之間流動。出於這個確切原因，您已經讓 AppDynamics 對 Talos 和安全產品組合的其他方面做同樣的事情。你已經 - 在喬納森接管托德和他自己的所有投資組合之前，托德與喬納森的團隊圍繞私有 5G 以及我們如何通過這些組合構建私有 5G 服務做了大量工作。這就是托德所說的，我認為團隊在真正領導客戶需求方面做得很好，而不是從構建組織結構圖的方式構建。這就是他所說的。

Thanks, Simon.

謝謝，西蒙。

Good. All right. Well, thank you all. Before we wrap, I want to make a few closing comments. I just first want to say, I'm really proud of what our teams have achieved. It's obviously a very dynamic environment, and the teams have really shown great execution and great focus. We did have tough compares, and so we worked really hard to try to give you a different way of looking at the demand, and we'll just -- we'll let you know if we see anything change when we come back together in the next call. But right now, demand remains solid.

好的。好的。嗯，謝謝大家。在我們結束之前，我想發表一些結束評論。我首先想說的是，我為我們的團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪。這顯然是一個非常動態的環境，團隊確實表現出出色的執行力和高度的專注力。我們確實進行了艱難的比較，因此我們非常努力地嘗試為您提供一種不同的方式來看待需求，我們只是 - 我們會在我們重聚時讓您知道如果我們看到任何變化下一個電話。但目前，需求依然穩固。

I think customers really do understand the value that technology brings to their strategy. I also appreciate what our supply chain teams have achieved, and we're encouraged by what we're seeing and how that supply hopefully will continue to ease throughout the year. The business model transition is really helping us give you more visibility and predictability. And I'm also proud of how our team has rallied around our purpose.

我認為客戶確實了解技術為他們的戰略帶來的價值。我也很欣賞我們的供應鏈團隊所取得的成就，我們對我們所看到的情況以及供應將如何在全年繼續緩解感到鼓舞。商業模式轉型確實幫助我們為您提供更多可見性和可預測性。我也為我們的團隊如何圍繞我們的目標團結起來感到自豪。

Just a couple of comments. This year, we set another a record high number of employees who were given back into their communities. Our Net Zero by '24 target and near-term targets were just approved by the science-based targets initiative under its Net Zero standard. So we're not only committed to our own goals, but also building technology that helps our customers meet their own goals.

只是一些評論。今年，我們讓回饋社區的員工人數再創新高。我們的“24 年淨零”目標和近期目標剛剛獲得基於科學的目標倡議在其“淨零”標準下的批准。因此，我們不僅致力於實現我們自己的目標，而且還構建技術來幫助我們的客戶實現自己的目標。

Lastly, we've been named the #1 Great Place to Work in 20 countries around the world. And on any day, I will be proud of that, but this is super important right now given the competition for talent around the world, and it really does make a difference when we're trying to hire new talent into the organization. It really makes us more resilient than ever, and I think we're well positioned for long-term growth, and I want to thank all of you for spending time with us today. Thank you.

最後，我們被評為全球 20 個國家/地區排名第一的最佳工作場所。在任何一天，我都會為此感到自豪，但考慮到世界各地的人才競爭，這一點現在非常重要，當我們試圖為組織招聘新人才時，這確實會產生影響。這確實使我們比以往任何時候都更有彈性，我認為我們已經為長期增長做好了準備，我要感謝你們今天花時間與我們在一起。謝謝你。

Thanks, Chuck. So I'll go ahead and close out the call. Cisco's next quarterly earnings call, which will reflect our fiscal year 2023 first quarter results, will be on Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. This concludes today's call. If you have any further questions, feel free to contact the Cisco Investor Relations group, and we thank you very much for joining today's call.

謝謝，查克。所以我會繼續結束通話。思科的下一個季度財報電話會議將在 2022 年 11 月 16 日星期三下午 1:30 舉行，該電話會議將反映我們 2023 財年第一季度的業績。太平洋時間，下午 4:30東部時間。今天的電話會議到此結束。如果您還有任何問題，請隨時聯繫思科投資者關係小組，我們非常感謝您加入今天的電話會議。

Thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (866) 517-3736. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369 2047. This concludes today's call. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想完整收聽電話，您可以致電 (866) 517-3736。對於從美國境外撥打電話的與會者，請撥打 (203) 369 2047。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連接。