思科 (CSCO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2022 財年第四季和年度財務績效電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製中。如果有異議可以斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想介紹投資者關係主管瑪麗蓮莫拉 (Marilyn Mora)。女士，您可以開始了。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO. By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call.

歡迎大家參加思科 2022 財年第四季季度財報電話會議。我是投資者關係主管瑪麗蓮莫拉 (Marilyn Mora)，與我一起的還有我們的董事長兼首席執行官查克羅賓斯 (Chuck Robbins)；以及我們的財務長 Scott Herren。現在，您應該已經看到我們的收益新聞稿了。電話會議結束後，我們將在網站的「投資者關係」部分提供相應的網路廣播和幻燈片，其中包括補充資訊。

Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website. Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders unless stated otherwise. All comparisons made throughout this call will be done on a year-over-year basis.

損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節資訊、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務資訊也可以在我們的投資者關係網站的財務資訊部分找到。在整個電話會議過程中，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，並且我們將從收入方面討論產品結果，從產品訂單方面討論地理和客戶結果，除非另有說明。本次電話會議中的所有比較都將以同比為基礎進行。

The matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the first quarter and full year of fiscal 2023. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

我們今天將要討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2023 財年第一季和全年提供的指導。它們受我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細討論的風險和不確定性的影響，特別是最新的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格報告，這些報告確定了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的重要風險因素。關於指導，請參閱本次電話會議附帶的幻燈片和新聞稿以了解更多詳細資訊。除非透過明確的公開揭露，否則思科不會對本季的財務指引發表評論。

I will now turn it over to Chuck.

現在我將把發言權交給查克。

Thank you, Marilyn, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. I'm very proud to share that we had a strong end to our fiscal year in the midst of an incredibly dynamic environment. In fact, we set several records with our performance this year. Let me first touch on those.

謝謝你，瑪麗蓮，也謝謝大家今天的參與。我很自豪地告訴大家，在極度動態的環境中，我們強勁地結束了本財年。事實上，我們今年的表現創下了多項紀錄。讓我先談一下這些。

For the full year of fiscal '22, we delivered record non-GAAP EPS of $3.36. Record product orders, which fueled our backlog to the highest level ever recorded, as well as our second strongest year of revenue in the history of the company at $51.6 billion. We continue to see strong customer adoption of our software and subscriptions, driven by the targeted investments we've been making. We also had record net income, which reflects our operating discipline despite external challenges, including supply chain and inflation.

22 財年全年，我們的非公認會計準則每股盈餘創歷史新高，達到 3.36 美元。創紀錄的產品訂單使我們的積壓訂單量達到歷史最高水平，同時也是我們公司歷史上第二高的收入年份，達到 516 億美元。在我們持續進行的有針對性的投資的推動下，我們繼續看到客戶對我們的軟體和訂閱的大力採用。我們的淨收入也創下了歷史新高，這反映了儘管面臨供應鏈和通貨膨脹等外部挑戰，我們仍然堅持經營紀律。

Our ongoing business transformation continues to show progress across our KPIs with annualized recurring revenue or ARR, and remaining performance obligations, or RPO, both setting record highs. These important metrics illustrate the increasing recurring nature of our revenue streams. This, combined with our record backlog provides us with enhanced visibility into our business looking forward.

我們正在進行的業務轉型繼續顯示出我們各個 KPI 的進步，年度經常性收入或 ARR 和剩餘履約義務或 RPO 均創下歷史新高。這些重要指標顯示我們的收入流具有不斷增加的重複性。這一點，加上我們創紀錄的積壓訂單，為我們未來的業務提供了更強的可視性。

While this was certainly a complex year, we executed well. I want to thank our teams for their perseverance, determination and unwavering commitment to our customers and our partners. Our team's commitment to accelerated innovation has put us in a unique position of strength for fiscal '23 and over the long term.

儘管今年無疑是複雜的一年，但我們表現良好。我要感謝我們的團隊對我們的客戶和合作夥伴的毅力、決心和堅定不移的承諾。我們團隊致力於加速創新，這使我們在 23 財年及長期內處於獨特的優勢地位。

Now I want to be clear on our outlook for fiscal '23. We expect strong performance across our portfolio, driven by our continued focus on innovation and easing of supply constraints to drive solid top line growth and profitability. While we anticipated some moderation from the unprecedented product order growth of last year, demand signals remain solid.

現在我想明確一下我們對 23 財年的展望。我們預計，透過持續專注於創新和緩解供應限制，我們的投資組合將表現出色，從而推動穩健的收入成長和獲利能力。雖然我們預計去年前所未有的產品訂單成長會放緩，但需求訊號依然強勁。

We do expect to continue to experience higher costs in the short term, driven primarily by higher component, freight and logistics costs, which is reflected in our Q1 guide. However, as you'll see in our annual guidance, we expect this margin pressure to begin to ease as the year progresses. Long term, there are many multiyear growth opportunities ahead of us that gives me confidence in our future.

我們確實預計短期內成本將繼續上升，主要原因是零件、運費和物流成本上升，這反映在我們的第一季指南中。然而，正如您在我們的年度指導中看到的那樣，我們預計隨著時間的推移，利潤率壓力將開始緩解。從長遠來看，我們面前有許多多年的成長機會，這讓我對我們的未來充滿信心。

There are currently more technology transitions occurring concurrently than I've seen in 20 years. long-term megatrends like hybrid cloud, hybrid work, security, IoT, 400 gig and beyond, 5G and WiFi 6 as well as the move towards application observability will likely provide tailwinds to our growth. With our portfolio in such a strong position to help our customers, I'm quite optimistic about what's ahead.

目前同時發生的技術轉型比我過去 20 年所見過的還要多。混合雲、混合工作、安全、物聯網、400G 及更高版本、5G 和 WiFi 6 等長期大趨勢以及向應用程式可觀察性的轉變可能會為我們的成長提供順風。由於我們的產品組合具有如此強大的優勢來幫助我們的客戶，我對未來充滿信心。

Before we discuss the quarter in detail, I want to provide some additional color on the supply situation and how we continue to build greater resiliency. After a challenging April due to the COVID-related shutdowns in Shanghai, and the impact on semiconductor and power supplies, overall supply constraints began to ease slightly at the back half of the fourth quarter and continuing into the start of Q1. While the component supply headwinds remain, they have begun to show early signs of easing.

在我們詳細討論本季之前，我想對供應情況以及我們如何繼續增強彈性提供一些額外的說明。由於上海因新冠疫情而採取的封鎖措施以及對半導體和電源供應的影響，4 月份經歷了充滿挑戰的時期，但總體供應限制在第四季度後半段開始略有緩解，並持續到第一季初。儘管零件供應逆風依然存在，但已開始出現緩解的初步跡象。

The decisions we made and the multiple actions we have taken over the past 2 years are helping to improve our resiliency and will help offset cost inflation. These include adding new suppliers, leveraging alternative suppliers, redesigning hundreds of products to use alternative components with similar capability and targeted price increases, all of which position us for the future. These actions, along with the tremendous efforts by our supply chain team and the investments we've made in building capacity to meet growth have the potential to drive momentum into fiscal '23.

過去兩年我們所做的決定和採取的多項行動正在幫助我們提高彈性，並有助於抵消成本通膨。這些措施包括增加新的供應商、利用替代供應商、重新設計數百種產品以使用具有類似功能的替代組件以及有針對性的價格上漲，所有這些都為我們的未來做好了準備。這些行動，加上我們的供應鏈團隊的巨大努力以及我們為滿足成長能力建設所做的投資，有可能推動 23 財年的發展勢頭。

Moving to performance highlights in the quarter. We delivered revenue above the high end of our guidance range, and non-GAAP EPS came in at the high end of our guidance range. We achieved healthy operating margins and generated solid cash flow, and returned nearly $4 billion to Cisco stockholders through cash dividends and share repurchases.

轉向本季的業績亮點。我們實現的收入超出了預期範圍的高端，非公認會計準則每股收益也達到了預期範圍的高端。我們實現了健康的營業利潤率並產生了穩健的現金流，並透過現金股利和股票回購向思科股東返還了近 40 億美元。

With annual product order growth of 14% for the fiscal year, we exited the year with record product backlog. In addition, our RPO totaled more than $31 billion, and when combined with low cancellation rates, which remain below pre-pandemic levels, this sets the stage for increased visibility and strong revenue growth as we head into fiscal '23.

本財年的產品訂單年增率為 14%，我們以創紀錄的產品積壓量結束了這一財年。此外，我們的RPO總額超過310億美元，再加上低於疫情前水準的低取消率，這為我們進入23財年時提高知名度和強勁的收入成長奠定了基礎。

In terms of our product orders this quarter, we delivered the second highest orders in absolute dollars in the history of the company. It was second only to our performance in Q4 of fiscal '21, and on a sequential basis, it was up greater than 15% with strong growth in enterprise, commercial and public sector. From an annual growth rate perspective, we clearly faced some very tough comparisons from the record orders we saw in Q4 last year, where we had over 30% growth. Based on that, the year-over-year decline was not a surprise nor is it concerning. It's important to keep in mind that in the near term, the rate and pace of our revenue growth is much more a function of component availability than on our quarterly product order growth.

就本季的產品訂單而言，我們交付的訂單金額是公司史上第二高的。這項業績僅次於我們在 21 財年第四季的業績，並且環比成長超過 15%，企業、商業和公共部門的成長表現強勁。從年增長率的角度來看，與去年第四季創紀錄的訂單相比，我們顯然面臨著非常艱難的比較，當時我們的訂單成長率超過 30%。基於此，同比下降並不令人意外，也並不令人擔憂。重要的是要記住，在短期內，我們的收入成長速度和步伐更取決於零件的可用性，而不是季度產品訂單的成長。

With RPO of over $31 billion, almost $17 billion of which will be recognized as revenue over the next 12 months, and a record backlog, we have great top line visibility. Thanks to the relentless effort of our entire organization, the business remains stronger than before the pandemic.

我們的 RPO 超過 310 億美元，其中近 170 億美元將在未來 12 個月內確認為收入，並且積壓訂單創下了歷史新高，因此我們的營收可見度很高。由於我們整個組織的不懈努力，業務仍然比疫情之前更加強勁。

From a demand perspective, we continue to experience solid customer activity beyond our ability to deliver as is reflected in the growth of our backlog that we saw throughout the quarter. While our business is not immune to macro trends, we will remain disciplined in our operations while benefiting from robust multiyear investment trends and the technology transitions I mentioned earlier.

從需求角度來看，我們繼續經歷超出我們交付能力的強勁客戶活動，這反映在我們整個季度看到的積壓訂單的成長中。雖然我們的業務無法免受宏觀趨勢的影響，但我們將繼續嚴格遵守營運紀律，同時受益於強勁的多年投資趨勢和我之前提到的技術轉型。

Our innovation is helping our customers and partners navigate an increasing amount of complexity, and there is a greater sense of urgency to leverage leading-edge technologies to deliver on their strategic objectives. This is leading them to consistently look to Cisco and our unique and differentiated innovation to help them advance their most pressing business priorities.

我們的創新正在幫助我們的客戶和合作夥伴應對日益複雜的情況，他們也更加迫切地需要利用尖端技術來實現他們的策略目標。這使得他們不斷尋求思科和我們獨特的差異化創新來幫助他們推進最緊迫的業務重點。

We recently held our Cisco Live customer event in person for the first time in 3 years and had over 15,000 in attendance, including thousands of our largest customers and many more participating virtually. Our discussions with them focused on strategic projects, supply assurance and the critical role Cisco can play to support their long-term technology road maps. They did not indicate any fundamental shift in their commitment to technology investments.

我們最近三年來首次舉辦了 Cisco Live 客戶線下活動，有超過 15,000 人參加，其中包括數千名最大的客戶，還有更多客戶以虛擬方式參與。我們與他們的討論重點是戰略項目、供應保證以及思科在支持其長期技術路線圖方面可以發揮的關鍵作用。他們沒有表現出對技術投資承諾的任何根本轉變。

Regardless of what the coming quarters may bring, we have a proven track record of being able to adjust in difficult environments. Our value proposition to our customers remains as strong as ever.

無論未來幾季會發生什麼，我們都擁有在困難環境中進行調整的良好記錄。我們對客戶的價值主張一如既往地強大。

In our web scale business, we continue to see momentum even as the business becomes larger, as product orders were up more than 50% on a trailing 4-quarter basis. We see significant opportunity ahead as these customers build out massively scalable cloud networks and increasingly turn to Cisco to help them meet accelerating demand for cloud services. Our leadership in silicon, optics, software and systems enables us to win as hyperscalers value industry-leading performance and innovation.

在我們的網路規模業務中，即使業務規模變大，我們仍然看到成長勢頭，因為產品訂單在過去 4 個季度增長了 50% 以上。隨著這些客戶建立出可大規模擴展的雲端網路並越來越多地求助於思科來幫助他們滿足日益增長的雲端服務需求，我們看到了巨大的機會。我們在矽片、光學、軟體和系統方面的領導地位使我們能夠贏得勝利，因為超大規模企業重視業界領先的性能和創新。

We are expanding our footprint, driven by data center build-outs, with our Silicon One-based Cisco 8000 routers, the fastest-growing platforms in Cisco's history. Together with optics from Acacia, we have a strong foundation for 400-gig and beyond to rearchitect the Internet with routed optical networking. In addition, we recently booked and shipped our first 800-gig systems to 1 of our web scale customers.

在資料中心建置的推動下，我們正在利用基於 Silicon One 的 Cisco 8000 路由器（思科史上成長最快的平台）擴大我們的業務範圍。結合 Acacia 的光學技術，我們為 400 千兆及以上的網路奠定了堅實的基礎，可以使用路由光纖網路重新建構互聯網。此外，我們最近向我們的網路規模客戶預訂並運送了第一批 800 千兆系統。

On the IoT front, we also now have more than 200 million connected things on our cloud platform with growth driven by connected car. We finished fiscal '22 with product orders in excess of $1 billion and growing double digits. We continue to make progress on our transformation to more software and subscription-based recurring revenue. ARR of approximately $23 billion was up 8% with product ARR increasing by 13%.

在物聯網方面，我們的雲端平台目前擁有超過 2 億個互聯事物，其中連網汽車推動了成長。截至 22 財年，我們的產品訂單金額超過 10 億美元，並且呈現兩位數成長。我們在向更多軟體和基於訂閱的經常性收入轉型方面繼續取得進展。 ARR 約 230 億美元，成長 8%，其中產品 ARR 成長 13%。

We had strong subscription revenue this quarter, driven by our growing portfolio of recurring offers. While our software revenue was down slightly, once supply constraints improve and we begin to increase product shipments, we expect to see an improvement in software, subscription and services that are attached to hardware products in our backlog.

本季度，我們的訂閱收入強勁，這得益於我們不斷增長的定期優惠組合。雖然我們的軟體收入略有下降，但一旦供應限制得到改善並且我們開始增加產品出貨量，我們預計會看到與積壓硬體產品相關的軟體、訂閱和服務有所改善。

The investments we've made in innovation are paying off as our competitive position is very strong. In Q4, we introduced several new cloud delivered innovations across our portfolio to help organizations drive productivity and resiliency. We launched Nexus Cloud, a platform to help our customers deploy, manage and operate their data center networks from the cloud. In addition, we introduced Calisti and Panoptica, 2 new cloud-native API-first tools for faster and better application development.

我們在創新方面所做的投資正在獲得回報，因為我們的競爭地位非常強大。在第四季度，我們在整個產品組合中引入了幾項新的雲端交付創新，以幫助組織提高生產力和彈性。我們推出了 Nexus Cloud，這是一個幫助我們的客戶從雲端部署、管理和營運其資料中心網路的平台。此外，我們還推出了 Calisti 和 Panoptica，這兩款新的雲端原生 API 優先工具，可實現更快、更好的應用程式開發。

We also announced AppDynamics Cloud, a next-generation version of our observability platform for cloud native applications. In addition, we shared our strategy to help our customers connect their entire security architecture with our new platform, Cisco Security Cloud, which will be a game changer for them as they look to secure their multi-cloud environments with a single cloud-delivered security platform.

我們也發布了 AppDynamics Cloud，這是我們針對雲端原生應用程式的可觀察性平台的下一代版本。此外，我們也分享了我們的策略，幫助客戶將他們的整個安全架構與我們的新平台思科安全雲端連接起來，這將改變他們的遊戲規則，因為他們希望透過單一的雲端交付安全平台來保護他們的多雲環境。

This is just 1 part of our broader security innovation cycle. Building on the double-digit growth we saw in security this quarter, we are investing across our security business, focusing on cloud-based offerings, best-in-class AI-driven threat detection and end-to-end security architectures. These innovations position us well for leadership in the security market.

這只是我們更廣泛的安全創新週期的一部分。基於本季安全領域實現的兩位數成長，我們正在對安全業務進行全面投資，重點關注基於雲端的產品、一流的人工智慧驅動威脅偵測和端到端安全架構。這些創新使我們在安全市場上佔據領先地位。

In summary, we executed well on our strategy and transformation during what remains a very dynamic time. This led to a strong close to our fiscal year, setting several records across our business, thanks to the solid execution from our teams, our market-leading innovation and our continued growth of recurring revenue. We also took decisive actions to help offset inflation and build resiliency in our supply chain, while investing in our business to position us well for long-term growth.

總而言之，在這個充滿活力的時期，我們很好地執行了我們的策略和轉型。由於我們團隊的出色執行、我們市場領先的創新以及經常性收入的持續增長，我們的財政年度取得了強勁的收官，並創下了多項業務記錄。我們也採取了果斷行動，幫助抵消通膨並增強供應鏈的彈性，同時對我們的業務進行投資，為長期成長做好準備。

The power of our technology continues to be a critical driver of economic growth and productivity. Our results and outlook demonstrate the critical role that Cisco plays as a leader in bringing innovative technology solutions to customers today and into the future. As we move into fiscal '23, we remain guided by our purpose-led culture and deeply committed to delivering value for our customers, partners and investors, as well as continuing to be an amazing place to work for our employees.

我們的技術力量仍然是經濟成長和生產力的關鍵驅動力。我們的業績和展望表明，思科作為領導者在為當前和未來客戶提供創新技術解決方案方面發揮關鍵作用。隨著我們進入 23 財年，我們將繼續以目標為導向的文化為指導，致力於為我們的客戶、合作夥伴和投資者創造價值，並繼續為我們的員工提供一個令人驚嘆的工作場所。

I will now turn it over to Scott.

現在我將把發言權交給史考特。

Thanks, Chuck. I'll first provide some detail on our financial results for the quarter, then cover the full fiscal year, followed by our guidance. .

謝謝，查克。我將首先提供有關本季度財務業績的一些詳細信息，然後介紹整個財年，最後提供我們的指導。 。

Our overall Q4 results reflect strong execution in an environment with continuing supply constraints, and as Chuck mentioned, increased costs reflected in our gross margins. We're very pleased that our shipment levels were above our expectations and that total revenue of $13.1 billion exceeded the high end of our guidance range as we saw improvement in supply as a direct result of the numerous actions we've taken over multiple quarters.

我們第四季的整體業績反映了在供應持續受限的環境下強勁的執行力，正如查克所提到的，成本增加反映在我們的毛利率上。我們非常高興，我們的出貨量超出了我們的預期，並且 131 億美元的總收入超過了我們指導範圍的高端，因為我們看到供應量的改善，這是我們在多個季度採取的眾多行動的直接結果。

Our non-GAAP operating margin was 32.4%, down 110 basis points and in line with our guidance. Non-GAAP net income was $3.4 billion, down 3%, and non-GAAP earnings per share was $0.83, coming in at the high end of our guidance range.

我們的非公認會計準則營業利益率為 32.4%，下降 110 個基點，符合我們的預期。非公認會計準則淨收入為 34 億美元，下降 3%，非公認會計準則每股收益為 0.83 美元，達到我們指導範圍的高端。

Looking at our Q4 revenue in more detail. Total product revenue was $9.7 billion, and service revenue was $3.4 billion, both flat year-over-year. Within product revenue, secure Agile Networks was down 1%. Switching declined in both data center and campus driven by supply constraints. We saw growth in our Catalyst 9000, Nexus 9000 and Meraki switching offerings. Enterprise routing decline primarily driven by Edge and SD-WAN, offset by strength in access. Wireless had strong growth, driven primarily by our Meraki wireless offerings. We also had double-digit growth in servers.

更詳細地了解我們的第四季度收入。總產品收入為 97 億美元，服務收入為 34 億美元，均與去年同期持平。在產品收入方面，安全的 Agile Networks 下降了 1%。由於供應限制，資料中心和校園的轉換量均下降。我們的 Catalyst 9000、Nexus 9000 和 Meraki 交換產品都實現了成長。企業路由的下滑主要由 Edge 和 SD-WAN 推動，但被訪問的強勁表現所抵消。無線業務成長強勁，主要得益於我們的 Meraki 無線產品。我們的伺服器也實現了兩位數的成長。

Internet for the future was down 10% with strength in web scale revenue, offset by declines in cable, edge and optical. Collaboration was up 2%, driven by growth in collaboration devices, partially offset by declines in our meetings and calling offerings.

未來網路收入下降 10%，網路規模收入強勁，但被有線、邊緣和光纖收入的下降所抵消。協作成長了 2%，這得益於協作設備的成長，但部分被會議和通話服務的下降所抵消。

End-to-end security had record revenue with strong growth of 20%, driven by strength across the entire portfolio. Our Zero Trust portfolio continues to perform well, driven by strong performance in our dual offering. Optimized application experiences had solid growth of 8%, driven by double-digit growth in our SaaS-based offering, ThousandEyes.

端到端安全業務收入創歷史新高，強勁成長 20%，這得益於整個產品組合的強勁成長。由於雙重產品的強勁表現，我們的零信任產品組合持續表現良好。優化的應用體驗穩定成長 8%，這得益於我們基於 SaaS 的產品 ThousandEyes 的兩位數成長。

We continue to make progress on our transformation metrics as we shift our business to more software and subscriptions. We saw strong performance in our ARR of $22.9 billion, an increase of 8% with product ARR growth of 13% driven by several large software transactions closing during the quarter. Total software revenue was $3.9 billion, a decrease of 2% with software subscription revenue up 1%. Bear in mind, we continue to have well over $2 billion of software orders in our product backlog. 83% of the software revenue was subscription based, which is up 2 percentage points year-over-year.

隨著我們將業務轉向更多軟體和訂閱，我們在轉型指標方面繼續取得進展。我們的 ARR 表現強勁，達到 229 億美元，成長 8%，其中產品 ARR 成長 13%，這得益於本季完成的幾筆大型軟體交易。總軟體營收為 39 億美元，下降 2%，軟體訂閱收入成長 1%。請記住，我們的產品積壓中仍有超過 20 億美元的軟體訂單。 83%的軟體收入來自訂閱，較去年同期成長2個百分點。

Total subscription revenue was $5.8 billion, an increase of 2%. Total subscription revenue represented 44% of Cisco's total revenue. And RPO was $31.5 billion, up 2%, product RPO increased 6%. Service RPO decreased 1%, and our total short-term RPO grew 4% to $16.9 billion. Total product orders in Q4 were the second highest in our history.

總訂閱收入為 58 億美元，成長 2%。總訂閱收入佔思科總營收的44%。其中RPO為315億美元，成長2%，產品RPO成長6%。服務 RPO 下降了 1%，我們的短期 RPO 總額增加了 4%，達到 169 億美元。第四季的產品訂單總量是我們史上第二高的。

While product orders were down 6% for the quarter, it's important to keep in mind the compare against 31% growth a year ago, which was the highest product orders in our history. On a sequential basis, product order growth was up over 15% with double-digit growth in enterprise, commercial and public sector.

雖然本季產品訂單下降了 6%，但重要的是要記住，與去年同期 31% 的成長率相比，這是我們歷史上最高的產品訂單。與上一季相比，產品訂單成長超過 15%，其中企業、商業和公共部門的訂單均達到兩位數成長。

Looking at our geographic segments year-over-year. The Americas was down 9%, EMEA down 4%, and APJC up 1%. In our customer markets, enterprise was down 15%, public sector was down 3%, service provider was down 7% and commercial was up 1%. From a non-GAAP perspective, total gross margin came in at 63.3%, down 230 basis points year-on-year; product gross margin was 61.3%, down 370 basis points; and service gross margin was 69%, up 160 basis points.

看看我們逐年變化的地理分佈。美洲地區下降 9%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區下降 4%，亞太及日本地區上漲 1%。在我們的客戶市場中，企業下降了 15%，公共部門下降了 3%，服務提供者下降了 7%，商業成長了 1%。從非美國通用會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 來看，總毛利率為 63.3%，較去年同期下降 230 個基點；產品毛利率為61.3%，下降370個基點；服務毛利率為69%，上升160個基點。

In our product gross margin, higher component and commodity costs as well as higher freight and logistics related to supply constraints were the predominant drivers of lower-than-expected margins. We saw increased benefits from the pricing actions we have taken as well as for mix.

在我們的產品毛利率中，較高的零件和商品成本以及與供應限制相關的較高的運費和物流費用是導致利潤率低於預期的主要原因。我們從所採取的定價行動以及組合措施中看到了更大的收益。

Once again, we had a significant increase in our backlog levels for both hardware and software, well beyond our normal historical levels. As Chuck said, our ending product backlog was a record for the year. And just a reminder, backlog is not included as part of the $31.5 billion in remaining performance obligations.

我們的硬體和軟體積壓水平再次大幅增加，遠遠超出了我們的正常歷史水平。正如查克所說，我們最終的產品積壓訂單創下了今年的最高紀錄。需要提醒的是，積壓訂單不包括在 315 億美元的剩餘履約義務中。

It's important to note that the combined total of our backlog and RPO gives us great visibility into our fiscal '23 top line growth. We ended Q4 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $19.3 billion. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $3.7 billion, down 18% year-over-year, primarily driven by advanced payments and inventory purchases to secure future supply. In capital allocation, we returned $4 billion to shareholders during the quarter, was comprised of $2.4 billion of share repurchases and $1.6 billion for our quarterly cash dividend.

值得注意的是，我們的積壓訂單和 RPO 總量讓我們能夠很好地了解 23 財年的營收成長情況。截至第四季末，我們的現金、現金等價物及投資總額為 193 億美元。本季營運現金流為 37 億美元，年減 18%，主要由於預付款和庫存採購以確保未來供應。在資本配置方面，我們在本季向股東返還了 40 億美元，其中包括 24 億美元的股票回購和 16 億美元的季度現金股利。

Turning to the full fiscal year results. Overall, our financial results were solid in a year where we faced significant supply constraints, rising component, and related costs and the war in Ukraine. Our financial performance was highlighted by strong demand with product order growth of 14%, including 2 quarters of truly impressive 33% growth, though our performance was clearly impacted by the supply constraints.

轉向整個財政年度的表現。總體而言，儘管我們面臨嚴重的供應限制、零件和相關成本上漲以及烏克蘭戰爭，但我們的財務表現仍然穩健。我們的財務表現突顯在需求強勁，產品訂單成長了 14%，其中兩個季度成長了令人印象深刻的 33%，儘管我們的業績明顯受到供應限制的影響。

Revenue was $51.6 billion, up 3%, while non-GAAP earnings per share were up 4% at $3.36. In terms of our software metrics, total software revenue was flat at $15.1 billion, with the product portion up 2%, 81% of software revenue was subscription-based, which is up 2 percentage points year-on-year. Total subscription revenue was $22.4 billion, an increase of 2%, and total subscription revenue represented 43% of Cisco's total revenue.

營收為 516 億美元，成長 3%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 4% 至 3.36 美元。從軟體指標來看，軟體總營收持平於151億美元，其中產品部分成長2%，81%的軟體營收來自訂閱，較去年同期成長2個百分點。總訂閱收入為224億美元，成長2%，總訂閱收入佔思科總營收的43%。

Total non-GAAP gross margin was 64.6%, down 150 basis points and our non-GAAP operating margin was 33.6%, up 10 basis points. On the bottom line, non-GAAP net income was $14.1 billion, up 3%. We delivered operating cash flow of $13.2 billion, down 14% compared to fiscal '21, driven primarily by advanced payments for inventory purchases to secure component supply. While these payments had a negative impact on full year operating cash flow, these and our other related actions helped to improve the supply situation in Q4 and future quarters.

非公認會計準則總毛利率為 64.6%，下降 150 個基點，非公認會計準則營業利益率為 33.6%，上升 10 個基點。整體而言，非公認會計準則淨收入為 141 億美元，成長 3%。我們實現了 132 億美元的營業現金流，與 21 財年相比下降了 14%，這主要得益於為確保零件供應而預付的庫存採購款項。雖然這些付款對全年經營現金流產生了負面影響，但這些付款以及我們的其他相關行動有助於改善第四季及未來幾季的供應狀況。

From a capital allocation perspective, we returned approximately $14 billion in value to our shareholders via cash dividends and stock repurchases, representing 109% of our free cash flow. This was comprised of $7.7 billion of share repurchases and $6.2 billion in quarterly cash dividends. We also increased our dividend for the 11th consecutive year in fiscal '22, reinforcing our commitment to returning excess capital to our shareholders and our confidence in the strength and stability of our ongoing cash flows. Our strong balance sheet and overall financial position is clearly a competitive advantage in tough environments.

從資本配置的角度來看，我們透過現金股利和股票回購向股東返還了約 140 億美元的價值，占我們自由現金流的 109%。其中包括 77 億美元的股票回購和 62 億美元的季度現金股利。我們也在 22 財年連續第 11 年增加股息，這加強了我們向股東返還過剩資本的承諾以及對持續現金流的強度和穩定性的信心。我們強勁的資產負債表和整體財務狀況顯然是在艱難環境中的競爭優勢。

To summarize, we executed well in Q4 and had a solid fiscal year in a highly complex environment while continuing to make progress on our business model shift and making strategic investments in innovation to capitalize on our significant growth opportunities and expanding addressable markets. The demand for our products and services is strong as we drive innovation through continued investment and the shift to more recurring revenue, delivering growth and driving shareholder value.

總而言之，我們在第四季度表現良好，在高度複雜的環境中度過了穩健的財年，同時繼續推進我們的商業模式轉變，並在創新方面進行戰略投資，以利用我們重要的成長機會和不斷擴大的目標市場。隨著我們透過持續投資和轉向更多經常性收入來推動創新，實現成長並推動股東價值，我們的產品和服務的需求強勁。

Turning to our financial guidance for Q1. We expect revenue growth to be in the range of 2% to 4%. We anticipate non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 63% to 64%. Our non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 31.5% to 32.5%. and non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $0.82 to $0.84.

談到我們對第一季的財務指引。我們預計收入成長率將在 2% 至 4% 之間。我們預計非公認會計準則毛利率將在 63% 至 64% 之間。我們的非公認會計準則營業利潤率預計在 31.5% 至 32.5% 之間。非公認會計準則每股收益預計在 0.82 美元至 0.84 美元之間。

For fiscal '23, our guidance is as follows: We expect revenue growth to be in the range of 4% to 6% year-on-year; non-GAAP earnings per share guidance is expected to range from $3.49 to $3.56, also up 4% to 6% year-on-year. In both our Q1 and full year guidance, we're assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 19%.

對於 23 財年，我們的指導如下：我們預計收入成長率將在 4% 至 6% 之間；非公認會計準則每股收益預計在 3.49 美元至 3.56 美元之間，年增 4% 至 6%。在我們的第一季和全年指引中，我們都假設非 GAAP 有效稅率為 19%。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

現在我將話題交還給瑪麗蓮，以便我們進入問答環節。

Thanks, Scott. Michelle, let's go ahead and queue up the list of Q&A.

謝謝，斯科特。米歇爾，我們繼續排列問答清單。

Sami Badri with Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的薩米‧巴德里 (Sami Badri)。

I actually had 2 questions. First thing is for fiscal year '23 your revenue growth expectations came in a bit stronger than most Street expectations. And maybe you could just walk us through the composition of the segment and what's driving the strength and maybe which segments may potentially lag some of the stronger segments. And then my other question is, maybe you could just give us some color on the composition of gross margin regarding pricing and productivity in fiscal 4Q of '22, that would be helpful.

我實際上有兩個問題。首先，對於 23 財年，您的營收成長預期比大多數華爾街的預期要高一些。也許您可以向我們介紹一下該細分市場的組成、推動其成長的因素以及哪些細分市場可能會落後於一些強大的細分市場。然後我的另一個問題是，也許您可以向我們介紹 22 財年第四季度定價和生產力方面的毛利率組成，這將會很有幫助。

Yes. Thanks, Sami. As we look at the forecast that we've given you for fiscal '23, balance growth again, 4% to 6% growth on the top line, 4% to 6% growth on the bottom line. when you start to peel that back, of course, we don't guide at that level. What we have seen, as you'd expect, is, again, nice demand, as Chuck talked about on the call, through the end of the fourth quarter, but a little bit different by industry vertical. Retail, not surprisingly, under a little bit of pressure. Financial services under a little bit of pressure.

是的。謝謝，薩米。當我們查看我們為您提供的 23 財年預測時，再次平衡成長，營收成長 4% 至 6%，利潤成長 4% 至 6%。當然，當你開始剝離它時，我們不會在這個層面上進行指導。正如您所期望的，正如查克在電話會議上談到的，到第四季度末，我們再次看到了良好的需求，但不同行業的情況略有不同。毫不奇怪，零售業承受著一點壓力。金融服務面臨一些壓力。

Pretty much strength across most of the rest of the sector, a little bit of pressure in health care as well. So that's -- as we roll into fiscal '23, that's what we're seeing kind of vertical by vertical.

該行業其他大部分領域都表現強勁，但醫療保健領域也面臨一點壓力。所以，當我們進入 23 財年時，這就是我們所看到的垂直情況。

We saw good double-digit growth sequentially, again, Q3 to Q4 because the year-on-year compares are quite difficult with that 31% growth we had a year ago, but good sequential growth, if you look at it by customer market in both enterprise, public sector and commercial. So again, seeing pretty balanced growth across the board. And that's our expectation as we roll into fiscal '23.

我們再次看到了第三季至第四季連續兩位數的良好成長，因為與去年同期 31% 的成長率相比，年比比較相當困難，但如果按企業、公共部門和商業的客戶市場來看，則環比成長良好。因此，我們再次看到各方面都呈現相當均衡的成長。這就是我們對 23 財年的期望。

On the gross margin question, we are getting a benefit from price. One of the things that we've talked about, though, is there's a lag between the price increases that we put in place and what we see actually showing up in reported revenues. And I know you know this from prior quarters, Sami, we saw some of that benefit in Q4, and you'll see this in our filings in our 10-Q -- our 10-K filing for the end of the quarter. It's about 1% up year-on-year gross margin driven by price, and then, of course, the offset coming from higher cost, both component costs and freight and logistics.

關於毛利率問題，我們從價格中獲益。不過，我們討論過的一個問題是，我們實施的價格上漲與我們實際報告的收入之間存在滯後。薩米，我知道你從前幾季就知道了這一點，我們在第四季度看到了一些好處，你也可以在我們的 10-Q 檔案（本季末的 10-K 檔案）中看到這一點。由於價格上漲，毛利率比去年同期上漲了約 1%，當然，成本上漲（包括零件成本、運費和物流成本）也抵消了這一增長。

Tim Long with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的提姆朗。

Just wanted to ask on maybe 2 quick ones. One on the software business. Chuck, you talked about kind of flattish performance, but still have carrying a lot of backlog there. That's been a case for a few quarters here. So maybe you could just talk a little bit about what you think it's going to get taken to get this business moving a little bit more aggressively towards that software model.

我只是想快速問兩個問題。一個是關於軟體業務的。查克，您談到了平淡的表現，但仍然有很多積壓工作。這種情況已經持續了好幾個季度了。因此，也許您可以稍微談談您認為需要採取哪些措施才能使這項業務更積極地向該軟體模式邁進。

And then I did want to follow up on the cloud vertical, still running really strong orders there. Can you talk a little bit about is the breadth of portfolio shipping into that growing? I know the 8-K is strong, but any other highlights of strength there, that would be great.

然後我確實想跟進雲端垂直領域，那裡仍然有非常強勁的訂單。能否稍微談談投資組合運輸的廣度是否不斷擴大？我知道 8-K 很強，但如果有其他突出優勢，那就太好了。

Thanks, Tim. So let's start with the software. And you're right, the software is flattish. There's 2 things that I would point out. We have -- we obviously have been transitioning from perpetual software model, which is in decline, and that's by design. We want to decline our perpetual software and increase our subscription software. And the way I think about it is our perpetual was down roughly 14% during the quarter. And we also, as Scott said, have over $2 billion, and it's actually a higher number exiting Q4 than it was in Q3 of software in backlog, as you said, connected to hardware. So those are 2 contributing factors, which is why we really should be thinking about the ARR situation because that's reflective of the ACV that we basically had exiting the quarter, and it's -- so that's an indicator of future software revenue.

謝謝，蒂姆。那麼就讓我們從軟體開始吧。你說得對，該軟體確實比較平淡。我想指出兩點。我們顯然已經從永久軟體模型轉型，該模型正在衰落，這是設計使然。我們希望減少永久軟體並增加訂閱軟體。我的想法是，本季我們的永久利率下降了約 14%。而且正如斯科特所說，我們的積壓軟體訂單金額超過 20 億美元，實際上，第四季度的積壓軟體訂單金額高於第三季度的積壓軟體訂單金額，正如您所說，這些積壓軟體訂單與硬體相關。所以這是兩個促成因素，這就是為什麼我們真的應該考慮 ARR 情況，因為它反映了我們在本季結束時的 ACV，所以這是未來軟體收入的指標。

So we're comfortable with it. And I think once we get through some of the supply chain stuff, that we'll start to see that be a little more reflective of what we've been planning on.

所以我們對此感到滿意。我認為，一旦我們解決了一些供應鏈問題，我們就會開始看到它更能反映出我們所規劃的內容。

On the cloud vertical, we continue to win new insertions. That business is approaching billion annually now. After just 2 or 3 short years ago, it was pretty close to nothing. And so the teams have done a fantastic job. It is -- obviously, over the last 4 quarters, it's grown 50%. From a revenue perspective, it's very supply chain dependent. So I wouldn't get too wrapped up about the revenue versus the orders right now. I think we'll work our way through that over the next to quarters. But overall, really pleased with where we are.

在雲端運算垂直領域，我們不斷贏得新的插入。目前該業務每年的營業額已接近 10 億美元。短短兩三年前，它幾乎就消失了。所以說，這些團隊做得非常好。顯然，在過去的 4 個季度裡，它成長了 50%。從收入角度來看，它非常依賴供應鏈。因此，我現在不會太糾結於收入與訂單的關係。我認為我們會在接下來的幾個季度內解決這個問題。但總體而言，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。

Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅德霍爾 (Rod Hall)。

I guess I wanted to dig into this order growth a little bit. Obviously, very strong numbers there, but somewhat inconsistent with the way that we would have expected them to come out? And I just wanted -- and the thing that's inconsistent is you guys are saying up over 15% in the quarter, but then down 6% on a year-over-year basis. We would have calculated closer to flat, like minus $1 million. So we're just curious whether there was any restatement of the July quarter last year. You guys had called out 31% order growth there or anything else going on with the dynamics of these orders that might help us to understand that got discrepancy at least in our numbers. And then I've got a follow-up.

我想我想深入研究一下這個訂單增長。顯然，數字非常強勁，但與我們預期的結果有些不一致？我只是想知道——不一致的是，你們說本季成長超過 15%，但年比卻下降了 6%。我們會計算得更接近平緩，例如負 100 萬美元。所以我們只是好奇去年七月季度是否有任何重述。你們曾提到訂單成長率為 31%，或這些訂單的動態的其他情況可能有助於我們理解至少在我們的數字上存在的差異。然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes, Rod, I saw some folks who thought we would be down 15%. So I think it's just different ways of modeling. When we were thinking about this question, and we obviously know that 31% and then in Q1, we're comparing is 33%. We were trying to find other ways to look at the business to indicate the reality of the demand signal. So let me just give you a few of those characteristics.

是的，羅德，我看到有些人認為我們會下降 15%。所以我認為這只是不同的建模方式。當我們思考這個問題時，我們顯然知道 31%，然後在第一季度，我們比較的是 33%。我們試圖尋找其他方式來觀察業務，以表明需求訊號的現實性。那麼就讓我來跟你介紹一下其中的幾個特點。

First of all, from a product order perspective, as I said, it was the second highest in history, which would be only eclipsed by Q4 a year ago. And it grew 15%. And on a sequential basis, that's actually in range with our historicals. If you go back to -- if you take out last year, which was an abnormal sequential then it's very much in line. It's in the range of what we've seen for the last 10 years, the 15%. You had enterprise, public sector and commercial all growing in solid double digits on a sequential basis, and again, growing sequentially off our largest third quarter product bookings ever. We also have continued growth in the pipeline. As we exited Q4, we saw very good growth in pipeline, which is a good indicator of going forward.

首先，從產品訂單的角度來看，正如我所說，這是歷史上第二高的，只有去年第四季才能超越。並且成長了15%。從連續性來看，這實際上與我們的歷史水平相符。如果你回顧一下——如果你把去年的情況拿出來，這是一個不正常的連續情況，那麼它就非常符合預期。它處於我們過去 10 年所見的範圍內，即 15%。企業、公共部門和商業部門均實現了連續兩位數的穩定成長，並且再次實現了我們有史以來第三季產品預訂量最大的連續成長。我們的管道業務也在持續成長。當我們退出第四季度時，我們看到了管道非常好的成長，這是未來發展的一個很好的指標。

And the final thing I would tell you is that if you -- the way our sales teams forecasted the quarter at the beginning of month 3, they revised their forecast for the quarter, and they finished stronger than they thought they would, and we had strength as we exited the quarter. And so linearity was solid. And so we just haven't seen anything that would indicate a significant shift in the demand signal from our customers.

最後我想告訴你的是，我們的銷售團隊在第 3 個月初對本季度的預測是這樣的，他們修改了本季度的預測，結果比他們預想的要好，而且我們在本季度結束時也表現出了實力。因此線性是穩定的。因此，我們還沒有看到任何表明客戶需求訊號發生重大轉變的跡象。

Yes, Rod, so there was no -- to be clear on your question, there was no change in the way we report year-on-year. It's exactly the same. The only other thing that I would add, too, to the comments that Chuck just made, linearity in the quarter was quite strong. In fact, the last week of the quarter was actually the same size as it had been in the prior year and the month-to-month linearity was exactly in line with last year and with prior year's expectations. So we saw strength right through the end of Q4.

是的，羅德，所以沒有——明確回答你的問題，我們同比報告的方式沒有變化。一模一樣。對於查克剛才的評論，我唯一要補充的是，本季的線性非常強。事實上，本季最後一周的規模實際上與去年同期相同，每月線性與去年和前一年的預期完全一致。因此，我們看到第四季末的強勁勢頭。

Got you. Okay. And just as a follow-up, can I ask you guys on inventory? I know inventories moved up quite a bit again. Do you think inventory starts to come down next quarter? Or just curious kind of where we are in that ebb and flow of inventory given the supply shortages and so on.

明白了。好的。另外，作為後續問題，我可以問一下你們的庫存狀況嗎？我知道庫存再次大幅增加。您認為下個季度庫存會開始下降嗎？或者只是好奇，考慮到供應短缺等因素，我們在庫存的起伏中處於什麼位置。

Yes. What's sitting in inventory, Rod, is the rest of the parts that aren't under constraint so that as the ones that are constrained free up, of course, we can square the set and get the product shipped out the door to our customers.

是的。羅德，庫存中剩餘的是不受限制的零件，這樣，當受限的零件釋放出來時，我們就可以整理好套裝，並將產品運送給客戶。

So it is growing. It's up about $1 billion year-on-year, sitting at $2.5 billion. Our advanced payments are up as well. Both of those are a bit of a headwind to cash flows, as you saw. But yes, it's much more a statement of making sure we've got everything we need so that as those constrained parts clear up, which we saw a little bit of that towards the end of Q4, we can square the sets and get it out the door and in the hands of our customers.

所以它正在增長。與去年同期相比，這一數字增加了約 10 億美元，達到 25 億美元。我們的預付款也增加了。如您所見，這兩者都對現金流造成了一定阻礙。但是的，這更多的是確保我們擁有所需的一切，以便隨著那些受限部件的清理，我們在第四季度末看到了一些這樣的情況，我們可以整理好設備並將其交付給客戶。

Amit Daryanani from Evercore.

Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I have 2 as well. The question I have is just on gross margins or maybe when I think about the EPS guide of 4% to 6% for fiscal '23. How are you thinking about gross margins in that backdrop? And then are buybacks embedded in that guide as well?

我也有2個。我的問題只是關於毛利率，或者當我想到 23 財年的每股盈餘指導價為 4% 至 6% 時。在這種背景下，您如何看待毛利率？那麼回購是否也包含在該指南中？

Yes. So there's no added buyback in there. We've talked about our cap allocation policy. Our share buybacks have both a systemic component to it that's just offsetting the shares that we issued through our equity plans and an opportunistic component.

是的。因此其中沒有增加回購。我們已經討論了我們的上限分配政策。我們的股票回購既有系統性成分，即抵銷我們透過股權計畫發行的股票，也有機會性成分。

On the -- what's our expectation on gross margin through the year? Of course, we don't guide that for the full year, Amit. But what I'd say is my expectation is as we go through the year and we can work through the backlog, we'll begin to ship out of that backlog more and more orders that actually reflect the price increases that we put in place last year. And as we do, of course, that will be a tailwind to margins throughout the year. So I would see margins going up as much as 50 basis points between our first quarter guide and where we end the year.

我們對全年毛利率的預期是多少？當然，阿米特，我們不會為全年做出這樣的預測。但我想說的是，我的期望是，隨著我們度過這一年，我們可以處理積壓訂單，我們將開始從積壓訂單中發出越來越多的訂單，這些訂單實際上反映了我們去年實施的價格上漲。當然，正如我們所做的那樣，這將為全年的利潤帶來順風。因此，我認為我們的第一季指引和年底的利潤率之間將上升 50 個基點。

And then if I can just follow up, there's been a fair amount of fear that higher interest rates look like to impact enterprise spending across the board. Your trend, your guide doesn't seem to suggest you see any signs of that. But I'd love to get your perspective, what are you hearing from your customers as the macro environment is changing? And really related to that, are you seeing any shift in how they procure or what they want to buy from you as the macro environment changes?

然後，如果我可以繼續追問的話，人們相當擔心更高的利率可能會全面影響企業支出。您的趨勢、您的指南似乎並未表明您看到任何這樣的跡象。但我很想了解您的觀點，隨著宏觀環境的變化，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？與此真正相關的是，隨著宏觀環境的變化，您是否看到他們的採購方式或他們想從您那裡購買的產品發生了變化？

Yes, it's a good question. And we -- what I would say is that we are not immune to any significant change in the macro that would result in enterprise spending shifting up. My comments are just that we haven't seen a material demand signal change as we've entered into Q1. So that's where we are.

是的，這是個好問題。我想說的是，我們無法免受宏觀經濟任何重大變化的影響，這些變化會導致企業支出增加。我的評論只是，進入第一季後，我們還沒有看到實質的需求訊號變化。這就是我們現在的狀況。

I think on last call, I believe I talked a lot about how I believe that post pandemic, the view of technology by our customers is much different than it would have been 7, 8, 9 years ago there. I think if you ask our customers if they would pause spending during a crisis, they would probably respond, when is there not going to be a crisis given what we've dealt with the last 3 years? And so in general, we don't hear a lot of difference relative to your question around have we seen any different buying behavior or what are they trying to buy from us. In some cases, customers are looking for a little shorter ROI, so that affects how they think about what products they're buying in these kinds of times. In some cases, customers are looking ahead to lead times to fiscal '23 budgets and trying to better understand what their budgets are going to look like because the shipments and the payments would be in the '23 time frame. But other than that, we're not seeing anything significantly different.

我想在上次通話中，我相信我已經談了很多關於我認為疫情過後，我們的客戶對科技的看法與 7、8、9 年前相比有很大不同。我想，如果你問我們的客戶，在危機期間他們是否會暫停支出，他們可能會回答，考慮到我們過去三年所經歷的情況，什麼時候不會發生危機？因此，總的來說，相對於您的問題，我們沒有聽到太多差異，我們是否看到任何不同的購買行為，或者他們試圖從我們這裡購買什麼。在某些情況下，客戶希望獲得更短的投資回報，因此這會影響他們在這種時候對購買什麼產品的看法。在某些情況下，客戶會提前考慮 23 年財政預算的準備時間，並試圖更好地了解他們的預算將會是什麼樣子，因為發貨和付款將在 23 年的時間範圍內進行。但除此之外，我們沒有看到任何明顯的差異。

Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley Investment Research.

摩根士丹利投資研究部的 Meta Marshall。

Great. A couple of questions for me. Maybe just on kind of increasing supply availability, I just wanted to get a sense of how much of that do you feel like is just some of these lagging edge components are starting to become more available? And how much of that is a result of kind of redesigns that you've done over the course of the year that have just kind of given you more optionality?

偉大的。我有幾個問題。也許只是在增加供應可用性方面，我只是想了解一下，您是否覺得其中一些滯後的組件開始變得更加可用？這在多大程度上是由於您在過去一年中所做的重新設計而產生的，這些重新設計為您提供了更多的可選性？

And then maybe just a second question for you, Chuck. Just as we've seen an evaluation correction on a lot of kind of the software space. Like how does that change your view of strategic activity?

查克，我還有第二個問題想問你。正如我們所看到的，許多軟體領域的評估都有所修正。這如何改變您對策略活動的看法？

Thanks, Meta. So on the first one, I'd say that it's a combination of both of those. We -- as we said earlier, we saw increased volumes in the broker network during the quarter, which candidly was an opportunity we took advantage of, which is why you saw the higher top line, we were able to get more products shipped to our customers, which we obviously were very happy about, but we had to pay more for those components, and we think that will continue probably over the next 60 to 90 days. And then we think some of those purchases will begin to become available from the same suppliers that have put the excess inventory into the marketplace.

謝謝，Meta。因此，對於第一個問題，我會說這是兩者的結合。正如我們之前所說，本季度我們看到經紀網路的交易量有所增加，坦白說，這是我們利用的一個機會，這就是為什麼您看到更高的營業額，我們能夠向客戶運送更多產品，我們對此感到非常高興，但我們必須為這些組件支付更多費用，我們認為這種情況可能會在未來 60 到 90 天內持續下去。然後我們認為，其中一些採購將開始從將過剩庫存投放到市場的同一供應商處獲得。

At the same time, we have -- and I think I said this on our last call, we've had hundreds of product design -- redesigns going on. And 2 of our high-volume products that also have good margins will begin to ship in the redesigned space sort of towards the latter into Q1 into the balance of the year, which we think will be helpful as well. So it's a combination of both of those things. And that's what gives us a little bit of optimism that things will continue to improve during the year.

同時，我想我在上次電話會議上說過，我們已經進行了數百種產品設計的重新設計。我們的兩款高產量且利潤率較高的產品將開始在重新設計的空間內出貨，時間大概在第一季的後期，也就是今年年底，我們認為這也會有所幫助。所以這是兩者的結合。這讓我們有一點樂觀地相信，今年情況將繼續改善。

On the second question, on the valuations, I've had this one a few times and I've been asked if our M&A strategy has changed because of the valuations. And I've said that our strategy hasn't changed, but the openness to talk to us from some of the companies that thought they had different strategic exits might have changed. And so we haven't changed our strategy. We just think that it potentially creates more opportunity for us with companies that might not have been willing because they thought there was a high-flying IPO ahead of them that they may not believe is the case right now. And the market is obviously taking a much different view on profitability versus just growth.

關於第二個問題，關於估值，我已經問過幾次了，有人問我我們的併購策略是否因為估值而改變了。我說過，我們的策略沒有改變，但一些認為自己有不同策略退出方式的公司與我們交談的開放程度可能已經改變了。因此我們沒有改變我們的策略。我們只是認為，這可能會為我們創造更多機會，因為那些公司可能不願意進行首次公開募股，因為他們認為他們面前有一場勢不可擋的 IPO，但現在他們可能不相信這是事實。顯然，市場對獲利能力和成長的看法截然不同。

Tal Liani with Bank of America Securities.

美國銀行證券公司的 Tal Liani。

I'm trying to distinguish between the growth next year, which is probably a function of better supplies and backlog, very high backlog in between the spending environment, and you started touching on it when we asked about the enterprise. So let me maybe expand the question about the environment.

我試著區分明年的成長，這可能是更好的供應和積壓的結果，支出環境中的積壓非常高，當我們問到企業時，你就開始談及這一點。因此，讓我進一步討論有關環境的問題。

When you go through your various, what you call, use of coal theaters, and you go through cloud and service providers and enterprise, et cetera, can you take us through your expectations for the spending environment and maybe how long it takes to close deals versus before when you look into the next few quarters? I'm trying to understand if the environment as you see it today, whether it deteriorates or not at all? Or which are the areas where we see a slowdown or not?

當您介紹完各種各樣、您所說的煤炭劇院的使用情況，以及雲端和服務提供者和企業等情況後，您能否向我們介紹一下您對支出環境的預期，以及與之前相比，展望未來幾個季度，完成交易需要多長時間？我想了解的是，您今天所看到的環境是否正在惡化，或者根本沒有惡化？或者我們在哪些領域看到了放緩？

And I have a second question, just if you can touch on security. Security was good again. It was good, actually much better, and there is improvement throughout the quarter, if you can touch on your position in security.

我還有第二個問題，請問您是否可以談及安全性。安全性再次改善。這很好，實際上要好得多，而且整個季度都有所改善，如果你能談談你在安全方面的立場的話。

Great. Thanks, Tal. So we -- I think Scott has touched on it that the revenue for fiscal year '23 is much more a byproduct of component availability than it necessarily is connected to demand. But I will tell you that our current models would have us exiting fiscal '23 with roughly the same backlog as we're entering FY '23.

偉大的。謝謝，塔爾。因此，我認為斯科特已經提到，23 財年的收入更多的是零件供應的副產品，而不一定與需求相關。但我要告訴你，根據我們目前的模型，我們在 23 財年結束時的積壓訂單量與進入 23 財年時大致相同。

And so -- and then as you look at the different segments that you've described, we had small business growth in Q4. I think it was double digits on a global basis, which is a good sign that that's continuing to grow. And then when we dissect it, commercial grew 39% a year ago, so sequentially in double digits. Enterprise was up in the mid-20s last year, so sequentially growing in high double digits. Those are good signs for us. And then the pipeline growth that we've seen as we exited the quarter just says that there's still a lot out there.

所以 — — 然後當您查看您所描述的不同部分時，我們發現第四季度的小型企業有所成長。我認為從全球範圍來看，這個數字是兩位數，這是一個持續成長的好兆頭。然後，當我們分析它時，商業增長了一年前 39％，因此連續兩位數增長。去年，企業銷售額成長了 20% 左右，因此連續實現了兩位數的高成長。這對我們來說都是好兆頭。我們在本季結束時看到的管道成長表明還有很多事情要做。

And so right now, we're modeling for just the things to continue as we see them and taking into consideration as you ask me to go around the regions, I think Asia and Europe, we had conversations with our team this week and they seem to -- they continue to be reasonably optimistic as we are in the Americas. And so it was a pretty consistent story. Scott?

因此現在，我們正在為我們所看到的情況進行建模，並考慮到您要求我走訪各個地區的情況，我想是亞洲和歐洲，我們本週與我們的團隊進行了交談，他們似乎 - 他們繼續保持相當樂觀的態度，就像我們在美洲一樣。所以這是一個相當一致的故事。史考特？

Yes. Probably the only thing I'd add is as you look at that 4% to 6% growth that we've forecasted now for fiscal '23, it is absolutely supply constrained. So while the supply situation we saw late in our fourth quarter that we just closed, there were some easing. Easing doesn't mean it's over. We're going to have supply constraints throughout fiscal '23 and just a few areas. Were it not for those, we would be growing much more quickly. It's not a case of demand. We're not demand-constrained. We were supply constrained in fiscal '23.

是的。或許我唯一想補充的是，正如你所預測的，23財年的成長率為4%到6%，這絕對受到供應的限制。因此，儘管我們在第四季末看到的供應情況在我們剛結束的時候有所緩解。放鬆並不意味著一切已經結束。在整個 23 財年以及少數地區，我們的供應都會受到限制。如果沒有這些，我們的發展速度會更快。這不是需求問題。我們不受需求限制。 23財年我們的供應受到限制。

And when it comes to your answer about service providers and cloud, same as the answer for the enterprise, meaning you don't expect much of a change as of now in the environment?

當涉及服務提供者和雲端時，您的回答與企業的回答相同，這意味著您預計目前環境不會發生太大變化？

No, we don't see anything. What I would tell you about the service provider business is that because of the long lead times, we started a process of doing long-term planning with them that I've talked about before. And so we actually have deferred bookings that don't show up anywhere right now, approaching $0.5 billion, that because they're outside of our standard shipment window when they would like to get those. So we've got orders out quarters from now from them that are all noncancelable because of the contracts that we've done. So we feel good about that momentum. We think that those customers will continue to spend in all of the trends that we've talked about. And given that we just shipped our first 800-gig system to 1 of the web scale players, we can continue to see them take advantage of these higher speed platforms. Now, Tal, you also asked about security?

不，我們什麼也沒看到。關於服務提供者業務，我想告訴你的是，由於交貨時間很長，我們開始與他們一起進行長期規劃，我之前已經談過。因此，我們實際上有一些延期預訂目前尚未出現，金額接近 5 億美元，因為它們超出了我們想要獲得這些訂單的標準裝運窗口。因此，從現在起幾個季度內，我們就會收到他們的訂單，這些訂單都是不可取消的，因為我們已經簽訂了合約。因此我們對這種勢頭感到滿意。我們認為這些客戶將繼續在我們談論的所有趨勢中消費。鑑於我們剛剛向一家網路規模企業交付了我們的第一個 800 千兆系統，我們可以繼續看到他們利用這些更高速的平台。現在，塔爾，你還問到了安全問題嗎？

Yes, I did.

是的，我做到了。

So we saw -- I think Scott mentioned this in his -- we had some really good growth and some backlog movement, to be honest, on the firewall side. So we had a really solid quarter on shipments from a firewall perspective. But we also had strength in our endpoint business. We had strengthen in our Zero Trust business. And we're continuing to -- that is the #1 investment area for the company this year, and it is -- we're continuing to drive, I think, greater innovation there and evolve that portfolio as we've described strategically. So I think we'll just continue to see improvement. But this quarter did get a boost from us clearing some backlog in the firewall space.

所以我們看到——我認為斯科特在他的文章中提到了這一點——老實說，在防火牆方面，我們確實取得了一些良好的增長，也有一些積壓的動向。因此，從防火牆的角度來看，本季我們的出貨量非常穩健。但我們的終端業務也同樣實力雄厚。我們的零信任業務得到了加強。我們將繼續——這是公司今年的首要投資領域，而且——我認為，我們將繼續在那裡推動更大的創新，並按照我們的策略描述來發展該投資組合。所以我認為我們將繼續看到進步。但本季我們確實因清理防火牆領域的一些積壓工作而獲得了提振。

Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

Congrats on the good execution this quarter. I guess I wanted to dive into the order numbers a bit here. And historically, you've talked about sort of SMB or commercial being a bit more of a leading indicator into enterprise trends. But when you look at the order trends right now, it does seem like you're seeing sort of a bit more of a sort of volatility around the enterprise orders related to the commercial segment. And so I wanted to see if there's anything that you can help us in terms of thinking about sort of the trends we're seeing there?

恭喜本季的良好執行。我想我想在這裡稍微深入研究一下訂單號碼。從歷史上看，您曾談到中小型企業或商業是企業趨勢的領先指標。但當你查看當前的訂單趨勢時，你似乎確實看到與商業領域相關的企業訂單的波動性增加。所以我想看看您是否能幫助我們思考我們所看到的趨勢？

And just a second one there is sort of collaboration, and it seems like a very tough backdrop to turn around collaboration results in. So how should we think about sustainability of the growth here for collaboration?

第二個問題是合作，扭轉合作的成果似乎是一個非常艱難的背景。那麼，我們該如何看待合作成長的可持續性呢？

Yes, Samik, thank you. I'll comment on the -- the small business was again strong, as I spoke about just a moment ago. I think it's really important when you have these abnormal year-over-year comparisons for us to find other ways to assess the strength, which is why we looked at the sequential growth. And sequentially, they're both up in double digits, both commercial and enterprise, which against a very large quarter a quarter ago. And so we're comfortable right now that they're moving as they should be.

是的，薩米克，謝謝你。我要評論的是——正如我剛才所說的，小企業再次表現強勁。我認為，當這些異常的同比變化時，找到其他方法來評估實力非常重要，這就是我們專注於連續成長的原因。連續而言，商業和企業業務均實現了兩位數的成長，與上一季相比成長非常大。因此，我們現在很放心，因為他們的行動正在以應有的方式進行。

Candidly, for commercial to grow at all after the extreme growth that we had a year ago was actually quite positive. So I actually view that favorably given the strength that they showed a year ago, it was probably the highest growth rate we've had in forever in that space or at least in the last 10 years. So overall, I think we don't see any sort of significant demand shift, as I said earlier.

坦白說，在經歷了一年前的極端成長之後，商業業務能夠實現成長實際上是相當積極的。因此，考慮到他們一年前表現出的實力，我實際上認為，這可能是我們在該領域有史以來或至少是過去 10 年來的最高成長率。所以總的來說，我認為我們沒有看到任何顯著的需求轉變，正如我之前所說的。

On the collab front, it's a little bit like the security message that I gave a few minutes ago. We had a -- we did clear a lot of device business in the backlog. So the growth, as Scott said in his opening comments, was driven largely by the device business and offset by some declines we had in meetings and calling.

在合作方面，這有點像我幾分鐘前發出的安全訊息。我們確實清理了很多積壓的設備業務。因此，正如斯科特在開場白中所說，成長主要是由設備業務推動的，並被會議和通話業務的一些下滑所抵消。

But I will say that the teams are working really hard on the meetings and calling side. Those have been strong. The calling side has been strong for us in the past few quarters. The product portfolio is in really good shape. The Net Promoter Score for our meetings platform is now 64 and that was 1 million customer responses. So it's a huge -- it's a hugely improved experience. And this year, the teams are really focused on trying to get that back to growth. But we've got a lot of work to do.

但我要說的是，團隊在會議和呼叫方面確實非常努力。這些都很強大。過去幾個季度，我們的呼叫業務表現強勁。產品組合狀況非常好。我們的會議平台的淨推薦值現在為 64，有 100 萬客戶回饋。所以這是一個巨大的進步——這是一個大大改善的體驗。今年，各支球隊都致力於恢復成長。但我們還有很多工作要做。

Ittai Kidron from Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的 Ittai Kidron。

A couple from me. Maybe first on the supply chain. I just want to make sure I understand your expectations for component availability. And maybe you could talk about price changes of components. It doesn't sound like you're assuming any changes in pricing. Is that correct? And if there will be a change in pricing, what are the odds that you actually take down the prices of your products?

這是我的一些。也許是供應鏈上的第一名。我只是想確保我了解您對組件可用性的期望。也許您可以談談零件價格的變化。聽起來您似乎並未預料到價格會發生任何變化。對嗎？如果價格發生變化，您實際降低產品價格的可能性有多大？

Yes. This -- I'll start, Chuck, and if you want to jump in, let's do that. From a component availability standpoint, Ittai, that's been the most fluid area of our forecast over the last several quarters. And as we look ahead, we did see signs of stability during Q4. And as I said, in the late in Q4 that we just closed, we actually saw some improvement. The way that improvement showed up was availability of some of the constrained parts that we have been chasing in the broker network. And obviously, when you buy from the broker network, you pay a premium for those. And you see that reflected in the gross margins.

是的。這個——我先開始，查克，如果你想加入的話，我們就這麼做吧。從組件可用性的角度來看，Ittai，這是我們過去幾季預測中最不穩定的領域。展望未來，我們確實看到了第四季的穩定跡象。正如我所說，在我們剛結束的第四季末，我們確實看到了一些改善。改進的表現形式是，我們在經紀人網路中一直追逐的一些受限部件的可用性。顯然，當您從經紀人網路購買時，您需要支付額外費用。您可以從毛利率中看到這一點。

I think there'll still be some of that in Q1. You see that reflected in our gross margin guide in Q1. And then it gets better as the year goes on, not because -- I'm not assuming any price declines or any cost declines coming from our suppliers. I think the -- I don't see them lining up to come back and say, "Hey, good news, Scott and Chuck. We're going to charge you less for the component parts." There may be some benefit in freight and logistics. We'll see as commercial airlift comes back online. I think the benefits we'll get will be much more from shipping more out of our backlog that are orders that were received after we did the price increases last year.

我認為第一季仍會出現一些這種情況。您可以看到這反映在我們第一季的毛利率指南中。隨著時間的推移，情況會變得更好，這並不是因為——我沒有假設我們的供應商會出現任何價格下降或成本下降。我認為——我沒有看到他們排隊回來並說，「嘿，好消息，斯科特和查克。我們將降低你們的零件價格。」在貨運和物流方面可能會有一些好處。我們將看到商業空運恢復正常。我認為，從我們去年提價後收到的積壓訂單中發貨更多，我們將獲得更大的收益。

So as I think about your fiscal year fiscal '23 guidance, what is the underlying assumption regarding volume component availability exiting fiscal '23? How much better are you expecting it to be in your guidance? What's embedded there?

因此，當我考慮您的 23 財年指導時，關於 23 財年結束時批量組件可用性的基本假設是什麼？在您的指導下，您期望它能有多好？那裡嵌入了什麼？

Yes. Again, our guidance assumes that we continue to be supply constrained through the year. As I said, if we could get more supply, we would be growing more quickly in fiscal '23. So we'll continue to be supply constrained. Our modeling shows that our backlog as we exit fiscal '23, Chuck touched on this earlier, that we think the dollar value, obviously, it's not the same orders, but the dollar value is roughly unchanged from the dollar value we roll into fiscal '23 with. So I think we'll continue to face component availability headwinds throughout the year.

是的。再次，我們的指導假設我們全年將繼續受到供應限制。正如我所說，如果我們能夠獲得更多供應，我們將在 23 財年實現更快的成長。因此我們的供應將繼續受到限制。我們的模型顯示，當我們退出 23 財年時，我們的積壓訂單量，查克之前提到過這一點，我們認為美元價值顯然不是相同的訂單，但美元價值與我們進入 23 財年的美元價值大致相同。因此我認為我們全年將繼續面臨零件供應方面的阻力。

Would you expect your order growth in fiscal '23 to exceed your 4% to 6% top line guidance?

您是否預期 23 財年的訂單成長將超過 4% 至 6% 的營收預期？

Yes. We don't forecast order growth, as you know, Ittai. So that's not one that I want to jump into at this point. I think probably the key takeaway would be we're not demand constrained, we're supply constrained as you look at '23.

是的。如您所知，Ittai，我們不預測訂單成長。所以我現在還不想討論這個話題。我認為關鍵的一點可能是，正如你所看到的，我們不是受到需求的限制，而是受到供應的限制，就像你所看到的，23 年。

Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

保羅·西爾弗斯坦 (Paul Silverstein) 與 Cowen 合作。

I know my questions have been touched on previous comments and responses, Chuck. But I want to ask you anyway the big picture questions, one on revenue, one on margins.

查克，我知道我的問題已經在先前的評論和回覆中被提及。但無論如何，我想問您一些宏觀問題，一個關於收入，一個關於利潤。

The first one: From your comments and the comments of your peers about networking, it looks like networking demand is in the best shape it's been in since the bubble of the late '90s. And that, of course, was a bubble. But it's -- the supply constraints, it's making it hard to discern what's going on from a competitive landscape standpoint. And I'm sure you guys are aware, I know it's come up in previous calls, but there's a sense, I think, created by your competitors, rightly or wrongly, but I want to let you respond that in campus enterprise in particular, which is still core to what you all do, that you've got competitive pressures. Any thoughts you can share on what you're seeing in your campus enterprise business, both on the wireline switching and on the wireless LAN side? You clearly talked about strength from an order perspective, but I want to let you respond. And then I've got a question on margins.

第一個問題：從您和您的同行對網路的評論來看，網路需求似乎處於自 20 世紀 90 年代末泡沫以來的最佳狀態。當然，這只是一個泡沫。但由於供應限制，從競爭格局的角度來看，很難辨別正在發生的事情。我相信你們都知道，我知道這個問題在之前的電話會議中出現過，但我認為，有一種感覺是由你們的競爭對手造成的，不管對錯，但我想讓你們回應一下，特別是在校園企業，這仍然是你們所做工作的核心，你們面臨著競爭壓力。您可以分享一下您對校園企業業務（包括有線交換和無線區域網路方面）的看法嗎？您顯然是從秩序的角度談論實力的，但我想讓您做出回應。然後我有一個關於利潤的問題。

Okay. First of all, I think market share is a very difficult thing to assess right now, to your point, because of everything sitting in the backlog. I do believe that Q4 was the second largest Cat 9K shipment quarter in the history of the product, so that would indicate that it's strong. And I think as we continue to clear our backlog or work through it, not clear it, but as we work through our backlog, you'll see some share come out. But I would encourage you to look at market share over a trending quarter time frame as opposed to a point in time because you just never know.

好的。首先，正如您所說，我認為現在很難評估市場份額，因為所有事情都積壓了。我確實相信第四季度是該產品歷史上 Cat 9K 出貨量第二大的季度，這表明它很強勁。我認為，隨著我們繼續清理積壓工作或處理積壓工作，不是清理積壓工作，而是處理積壓工作，您會看到一些份額的出現。但我鼓勵您關注趨勢季度時間範圍內的市場份額，而不是某個時間點的市場份額，因為您永遠不知道。

We've got some products that we've been redesigning that we have backlog that we'll begin to ship in mass that will actually flip market share numbers pretty significantly. And my competitor is going to be telling you exactly what I'm telling you right now. So it's something you just got to watch over time.

我們正在重新設計一些積壓產品，這些產品將開始大量出貨，這實際上將顯著改變市場份額數字。我的競爭對手將會告訴你我現在要告訴你的一切。所以這是你必須長期觀察的事情。

And so I'm not -- I mean, clearly, we have competition in the campus. We have very strong competition. We always have. And -- but given the volume of the products that we're shipping right now, I don't feel like we're losing significant share.

所以我不是——我的意思是，顯然我們在校園裡有競爭。我們的競爭非常激烈。我們一直都是如此。而且——但考慮到我們目前運送的產品數量，我並不覺得我們的市場份額正在大幅下降。

Okay. And also from a good picture perspective, once upon a time, networking in general, and Cisco, in particular, was the canary in the coal mine. When there was a macro downturn, you guys were the first to see it networking was the easiest thing to push off, everyone let their networks run hotter, where the enterprise carriers, et cetera, that seems to flip where networking is actually not seeing weakness that other technology product markets are seeing. I just want to make sure that I've got that concept right.

好的。而且從好的方面來看，曾幾何時，網路整體而言，尤其是思科，就像煤礦中的金絲雀。當宏觀經濟出現衰退時，你們是第一個發現網路是最容易被推遲的事情的人，每個人都讓自己的網路運作得更熱，而企業營運商等等，情況似乎發生了逆轉，網路實際上並沒有像其他科技產品市場那樣出現疲軟。我只是想確保我理解這個概念是正確的。

And the real question though on the margin side, you all were at record or near record gross and operating margin levels going into the pandemic before input costs, ICE, semis freight, logistics, et cetera, spikes. Any thoughts on where you can get -- where the long-term model can get back to once supply chain normalizes. I assume that freight and logistics mix and pricing will go back to pre-pandemic levels. It will help you and others out. But I also assume that the increase in semi ICE input costs are not going back to where they were, you'll be able to offset some but probably not all of that with your price increases. Let me let you respond.

然而，在利潤率方面，真正的問題是，在疫情爆發之前，在投入成本、ICE、半成品運費、物流等飆升之前，你們的毛利率和營業利潤率都處於創紀錄或接近創紀錄的水平。您有什麼想法嗎？一旦供應鏈恢復正常，長期模式可以恢復到什麼程度？我認為貨運和物流組合及定價將恢復到疫情前的水準。它將幫助你和其他人。但我也假設半內燃機投入成本的成長不會回到原來的水平，你可以透過提高價格來抵銷部分但可能不是全部的抵銷。讓我讓你回應。

Yes. So let me take the networking -- the resilience of the networking market first. And then, Scott, you take the margin question. So Paul, the -- I think you're right. And I've said this repeatedly, I think what what's driven this is there are 2 things. Number one, the pandemic revealed the impact of not keeping your core infrastructure technology up to speed. Customers struggled, and I think it made them realize that they had a lot of tech debt that needed to be dealt with. And they don't want to get in that position again. So that's the first thing.

是的。因此，首先讓我來談談網路──網路市場的彈性。然後，史考特，你來回答利潤問題。所以保羅，我認為你是對的。我已經一再說過，我認為造成這現象的原因有兩點。首先，這場疫情暴露了核心基礎建設技術未能跟上腳步所帶來的影響。客戶們苦苦掙扎，我認為這讓他們意識到他們有很多技術債需要處理。他們不想再陷入那種境地。這是第一件事。

But the second thing is all of these mega trends that I mentioned in my opening comments, I mean, these customers are rearchitecting their entire infrastructure for the first time in years to deal with hybrid cloud and to deal with all of the mobile workers. We see IoT exploding. You see all of the climate activity is going to be a tailwind to our business because you have to connect all these industrial systems to be able to control them. You've got to shift to 400 gig. I mean let me just give -- I'll give you a data point, 400 gig ports we're up almost 700% year-over-year for us. We've got over 1,000 customers now that have bought 400 gig, and we shipped our first 800 gig.

但第二件事是我在開場白中提到的所有這些大趨勢，我的意思是，這些客戶多年來第一次重新建立他們的整個基礎設施，以應對混合雲和所有行動工作者。我們看到物聯網正在爆炸性成長。您會發現，所有氣候活動都將成為我們業務的順風，因為您必須連接所有這些工業系統才能控制它們。您必須轉換到 400 千兆。我的意思是，讓我給你一個數據點，400 千兆埠的數量比去年同期增加了近 700%。現在，我們已經有超過 1,000 名客戶購買了 400 千兆，並且我們已經發貨了第一批 800 千兆。

So it's just all these trends continue, you got 5G, you've got WiFi 6. You've got this application observability, the rearchitecture of applications. So I think it's a combination of the realization the pandemic brought on around technology debt and never letting them get to that point, and then these mega trends that are going on. And Scott, do you want to take the gross margin question?

所以所有這些趨勢都在繼續，你有 5G，你有 WiFi 6。你有這個應用程式可觀察性，應用程式的重新架構。因此，我認為這是疫情帶來的技術債認知以及不讓它們達到那個程度，以及正在發生的這些大趨勢的結合。史考特，你想回答毛利率問題嗎？

Yes. I think, Paul, on the gross margin question, I think you nailed the trends. I don't expect input costs, particularly around semis, to come down. I look forward to the day that I come to the office and there's a message from our semiconductor suppliers saying, "Hey, good news, your price is going down." I just don't see that happening. Price will offset part of it. I think you got that part right, too.

是的。保羅，我認為，關於毛利率問題，你已經抓住了趨勢。我並不認為投入成本，尤其是半導體方面的投入成本會下降。我期待著有一天當我來到辦公室時，能收到來自半導體供應商的消息：「嘿，好消息，你們的價格要下降了。」我只是沒有看到這樣的事情發生。價格將抵消一部分。我認為你對這一部分也理解正確。

I think the other -- the only thing I would add that probably in your thinking, but you didn't say it, so I will. Over the longer term, as we mix more software in, that will be a tailwind at the gross margin line. So just add that to your thinking, and I think you've got it nailed.

我認為另一點——我唯一想補充的是，這可能就在你的想法中，但你沒有說出來，所以我會說出來。從長遠來看，隨著我們融入更多的軟體，這將成為毛利率的順風。因此，只要將其添加到您的想法中，我認為您就明白了。

Scott, can you go back to that record level?

史考特，你能回到那個記錄水準嗎？

I don't want to get into forecasting the longer term at that level of granularity right now, Paul.

保羅，我現在不想在那個粒度級別上進行長期預測。

Ben Bollin with Cleveland Research.

克利夫蘭研究公司的 Ben Bollin。

The first one, you talked about backlog expected to sustain at current levels exiting fiscal '23. I think you said software backlog was north of $2 billion again in the quarter, but what was the product backlog? Where did that finish the quarter?

第一個問題，您談到預計積壓訂單將在 23 財年結束時維持在當前水準。我想您說過本季軟體積壓訂單金額再次超過 20 億美元，但產品積壓訂單金額是多少？本季的收尾情況如何？

Yes. We didn't give that stat and that's not one that I want to start giving every quarter. Ben, what we did say qualitatively is it grew again. And what I'll tell you is it was up actually up triple digits again on a year-on-year basis. The overall backlog. Software backlog is a pretty significant headwind to our software growth it's well north of the $2 billion that we talked about.

是的。我們沒有提供該統計數據，而且我也不想每個季度都提供該統計數據。本，我們確實從品質上說它又成長了。我要告訴你的是，與去年同期相比，這個數字其實又成長了三位數。總體積壓。軟體積壓對我們的軟體成長來說是一個相當大的阻力，它遠遠超過了我們談論的 20 億美元。

Okay. And then one other item. I'm not asking for a forecast on RPO. I guess that's a precursor to sort of asking for one. But when you think about RPO in the concept of the broader 4% to 6% rev guide for the year, is the assumption as you shift more to software that RPO should consistently outperform your top line growth? How do you think about the relationship for those 2 metrics longer term? .

好的。然後還有另一件事。我並不是要求對 RPO 進行預測。我想，這是提出要求的先兆。但是，當您從更廣泛的 4% 到 6% 的年度收入指南概念來考慮 RPO 時，當您更多地轉向軟體時，是否假設 RPO 應該始終優於您的收入成長？您如何看待這兩個指標的長期關係？ 。

Yes. There's a couple of dynamics going on in RPO. So I'd say, in general, you're right, obviously, duration has an effect on RPO as well, but it varies a bit by product line. So for the quarter, we just announced the 6% product RPO growth. We had double-digit product RPO growth in secure Agile Networks, in optimized app experiences and in security, I almost forgot. And we had high single-digit growth in Internet for the future. I'd say that the headwind there, of course, is collab from an RPO standpoint.

是的。 RPO 中存在一些動態現象。所以我想說，總的來說，你是對的，顯然，持續時間也會對 RPO 產生影響，但它會因產品線的不同而略有不同。因此，對於本季度，我們剛剛宣布產品 RPO 成長 6%。我差點忘了，我們在安全的敏捷網路、最佳化的應用體驗和安全性方面實現了兩位數的產品 RPO 成長。我們未來在網路領域將實現高個位數成長。我想說，從 RPO 的角度來看，那裡的阻力當然是合作。

So longer term, I think you'd expect those dynamics to continue. And as we turn around the go-to-market and the sales side of collab, that will flip from being a headwind to more of a tailwind on product RPO growth.

因此從長遠來看，我認為你會期望這些動態持續下去。當我們扭轉市場進入和合作銷售方面時，這將從產品 RPO 成長的逆風轉變為順風。

Okay. We have time for 1 more question.

好的。我們還有時間回答另一個問題。

Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

雷蒙德詹姆斯公司的西蒙利奧波德。

I've got one sort of short term and one longer term. On the short-term side, we heard some anecdotes that some multi product projects have been split up because of the supply chain constraints. And I want to get a sense of whether or not that's something that's happening as a way for you to work around some of the bottlenecks and to get some projects out the door that might not have and how that might factor into the numbers.

我有一種短期的和一種長期的。短期內，我們聽到一些傳聞稱，一些多產品項目由於供應鏈限製而被拆分。我想了解一下，這是否能幫助你們解決一些瓶頸問題，並啟動一些可能沒有啟動的項目，以及這會對數字產生什麼影響。

And in terms of the longer term, Todd Nightingale had made a comment in a meeting about Cisco no longer managing to the org chart. And I wanted to see if maybe, Chuck, you can elaborate on what the implications are by that particular statement.

從長期來看，托德南丁格爾 (Todd Nightingale) 在一次會議上表示思科不再管理組織結構圖。查克，我想看看你是否可以詳細說明一下該特定聲明的含義。

Well Simon, if I could ask you to clarify for me is on the short-term question, I didn't quite understand. You're saying that we are breaking up orders or we're asking customers -- or customers are making that decision? What exactly was the question? .

好吧，西蒙，如果我可以請你幫我澄清一下關於短期的問題，我不太明白。您是說我們正在拆分訂單或我們正在詢問客戶——或者是客戶正在做出這個決定？問題到底是什麼？ 。

Yes. I'm not 100% sure, but I think it's customers asking to break apart some larger projects where they're buying a multitude of components from Cisco and essentially saying, "Let's not wait for the components you can't get. Ship me what you can, I'll get the other stuff elsewhere. " I've heard these as anecdotes, and I'm trying to understand how substantive it is.

是的。我並不是100%確定，但我認為是客戶要求拆分一些大型項目，他們從思科購買了大量組件，本質上是說：「我們不要等你們拿不到的組件了。把你們能發的都發給我，其他的我到別處去買。」我聽過一些這樣的軼事，我正在努力理解它到底有多重要。

Yes. I have not heard any discussion on that particular topic, but it wouldn't surprise me. I mean, if I was a customer and if I had a project that I could actually drive some constructive ROI by doing part of it, then I would split it up to try to get the part that I could get, for sure.

是的。我沒有聽過有關該特定主題的任何討論，但這並不讓我感到驚訝。我的意思是，如果我是客戶，並且我有一個項目，我可以透過參與其中的一部分來真正獲得一些建設性的投資回報率，那麼我肯定會將其拆分，嘗試獲得我可以獲得的那一部分。

I'll tell you what we are seeing, we are -- we have customers are being really good with us about telling us what they desperately need and what they're okay waiting for. They've been really great about saying, look, I'm not going to come tell you this guy is falling, and tell you, I need everything in backlog tomorrow. But here's what I really need, here's what I need this time, here's what I need this time. And so we've been working through that a lot with customers, and that may be a variation of what you've heard. So that's the only thing that I can think of.

我會告訴你我們所看到的，我們的顧客對我們非常好，他們告訴我們他們迫切需要什麼以及他們願意等待什麼。他們非常善於說，看，我不會來告訴你這個傢伙正在摔倒，並告訴你，我明天需要積壓的所有東西。但這是我真正需要的，這是我這次需要的，這是我這次需要的。因此，我們一直在與客戶一起努力解決這個問題，這可能與您所聽到的有所不同。這是我唯一能想到的辦法。

On the Todd comment on the org chart, I think the comment is we don't want to ship our org chart. And we talked at Cisco Live about a huge number of cross-business unit technology combinations that we were delivering. I'll give you a couple of examples, but this is what he's talking about. Like our Secure Connect+ that we started shipping includes SD-WAN technology from the enterprise networking team and cloud security from the security team, brought together in a managed as-a-service offer for customers. There's integration going on between AppDynamics and Thousand Eyes that actually will be bidirectional intelligence. It will flow between those 2. You've got AppDynamics doing the same thing with Talos and other aspects of the security portfolio for that exact reason. You've got -- before Jonathan took on all of the portfolio that Todd had and his own, there was a lot of work Todd was doing with Jonathan's team around private 5G and how do we build private 5G services through a combination of those. So that's what Todd is talking about, and I think the teams have done a good job of really leading with what the customer needs and not building from the way the org chart is built. And that's what he's talking about.

關於 Todd 對組織結構圖的評論，我認為我們的評​​論是我們不想發布我們的組織結構圖。我們在 Cisco Live 上討論了我們正在提供的大量跨業務部門技術組合。我會給你舉幾個例子，但這就是他所談論的內容。就像我們開始發布的 Secure Connect+ 一樣，它包括來自企業網路團隊的 SD-WAN 技術以及來自安全團隊的雲端安全，並整合在一起為客戶提供託管即服務。 AppDynamics 和 Thousand Eyes 之間正在進行集成，這實際上將是雙向智慧。它將在這兩者之間流動。正是出於這個原因，AppDynamics 對 Talos 和安全產品組合的其他方面做了同樣的事情。在喬納森接手托德和他自己的所有投資組合之前，托德與喬納森的團隊在私有 5G 方面做了很多工作，以及如何通過結合這些來構建私有 5G 服務。這就是托德所說的，我認為團隊已經做得很好了，真正以客戶需求為導向，而不是按照組織結構圖的建構方式來建構。這就是他所談論的內容。

Thanks, Simon.

謝謝，西蒙。

Good. All right. Well, thank you all. Before we wrap, I want to make a few closing comments. I just first want to say, I'm really proud of what our teams have achieved. It's obviously a very dynamic environment, and the teams have really shown great execution and great focus. We did have tough compares, and so we worked really hard to try to give you a different way of looking at the demand, and we'll just -- we'll let you know if we see anything change when we come back together in the next call. But right now, demand remains solid.

好的。好的。好的，謝謝大家。在結束之前，我想做幾點總結。我首先想說的是，我為我們團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪。這顯然是一個非常活躍的環境，團隊確實展現了出色的執行力和高度的專注力。我們確實進行了艱難的比較，因此我們非常努力地嘗試為您提供一種不同的方式來看待需求，如果我們在下次通話中再次聚在一起時發現任何變化，我們會通知您。但目前，需求依然強勁。

I think customers really do understand the value that technology brings to their strategy. I also appreciate what our supply chain teams have achieved, and we're encouraged by what we're seeing and how that supply hopefully will continue to ease throughout the year. The business model transition is really helping us give you more visibility and predictability. And I'm also proud of how our team has rallied around our purpose.

我認為客戶確實了解科技為其策略帶來的價值。我也很欣賞我們的供應鏈團隊所取得的成就，我們對所看到的情況感到鼓舞，希望全年供應能繼續緩解。商業模式的轉變確實幫助我們為您提供更多的可見度和可預測性。我也為我們的團隊如何團結起來實現我們的目標而感到自豪。

Just a couple of comments. This year, we set another a record high number of employees who were given back into their communities. Our Net Zero by '24 target and near-term targets were just approved by the science-based targets initiative under its Net Zero standard. So we're not only committed to our own goals, but also building technology that helps our customers meet their own goals.

僅幾點評論。今年，我們回饋社區的員工人數再創歷史新高。我們的24年淨零排放目標和近期目標剛剛獲得科學基礎碳排放倡議組織根據其淨零排放標準的批准。因此，我們不僅致力於實現自己的目標，而且還致力於建立幫助客戶實現自身目標的技術。

Lastly, we've been named the #1 Great Place to Work in 20 countries around the world. And on any day, I will be proud of that, but this is super important right now given the competition for talent around the world, and it really does make a difference when we're trying to hire new talent into the organization. It really makes us more resilient than ever, and I think we're well positioned for long-term growth, and I want to thank all of you for spending time with us today. Thank you.

最後，我們被全球 20 個國家評為「最佳工作場所」。無論哪一天，我都會為此感到自豪，但考慮到全球人才的競爭，這一點現在尤其重要，當我們試圖為組織招募新人才時，這確實會產生影響。這確實使我們比以往任何時候都更有韌性，我認為我們為長期成長做好了準備，我要感謝大家今天抽出時間與我們在一起。謝謝。

Thanks, Chuck. So I'll go ahead and close out the call. Cisco's next quarterly earnings call, which will reflect our fiscal year 2023 first quarter results, will be on Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. This concludes today's call. If you have any further questions, feel free to contact the Cisco Investor Relations group, and we thank you very much for joining today's call.

謝謝，查克。因此我將繼續並結束通話。思科的下一次季度財報電話會議將於 2022 年 11 月 16 日星期三下午 1:30 舉行，該電話會議將反映我們 2023 財年第一季的業績。太平洋時間下午 4:30東部時間。今天的電話會議到此結束。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫思科投資者關係小組，非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

Thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (866) 517-3736. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369 2047. This concludes today's call. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想完整收聽電話會議，可以撥打 (866) 517-3736。對於從美國境外撥打的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369 2047。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。