思科 (CSCO) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2022 財年第三季財務業績電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製中。如果有異議可以斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想介紹投資者關係主管瑪麗蓮莫拉 (Marilyn Mora)。女士，您可以開始了。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Third Quarter Fiscal 2022 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO. By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call. Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website.

歡迎大家參加思科 2022 財年第三季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係主管瑪麗蓮莫拉 (Marilyn Mora)，與我一起的還有我們的董事長兼首席執行官查克羅賓斯 (Chuck Robbins)；以及我們的財務長 Scott Herren。現在，您應該已經看到我們的收益新聞稿了。電話會議結束後，我們將在網站的「投資者關係」部分提供相應的網路廣播和幻燈片，其中包括補充資訊。損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節資訊、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務資訊也可以在我們的投資者關係網站的財務資訊部分找到。

Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders unless stated otherwise. All comparisons made throughout this call will be done on a year-over-year basis. Please note, included in the materials that accompany this call is a slide which summarizes the impacts from the war in Ukraine and the extra week in Q3 fiscal 2021.

在整個電話會議過程中，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，並且我們將從收入方面討論產品結果，從產品訂單方面討論地理和客戶結果，除非另有說明。本次電話會議中的所有比較都將以同比為基礎進行。請注意，本次電話會議的資料中包含一張投影片，總結了烏克蘭戰爭和 2021 財年第三季額外一週的影響。

The matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2022. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties, including COVID-19, that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

我們今天將要討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2022 財年第四季和全年提供的指引。它們受 COVID-19 等風險和不確定性的影響，我們在向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細討論了這些風險和不確定性，特別是最新的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格報告，這些報告確定了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果大不相同的重要風險因素。關於指導，請參閱本次電話會議附帶的幻燈片和新聞稿以了解更多詳細資訊。除非透過明確的公開揭露，否則思科不會對本季的財務指引發表評論。

I will now turn it over to Chuck.

現在我將把發言權交給查克。

Thanks, Marilyn, and good afternoon, everyone. When we spoke with you back in February, we entered Q3 in the second half of our fiscal year with optimism despite the supply and component challenges and other headwinds impacting us and many of our peers. Many of those factors that fuel that optimism remain unchanged today. We continue to see strong demand, resulting in record backlog. Our business transformation is progressing well, and our differentiated innovation across our portfolio is helping our customers embrace and adopt the multiple technology transitions happening.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮，大家午安。當我們在二月與您交談時，儘管我們和許多同行面臨供應和零件挑戰以及其他不利因素的影響，但我們仍然對財年下半年的第三季度充滿樂觀。許多激發這種樂觀情緒的因素至今仍未改變。我們持續看到強勁的需求，導致積壓訂單創下紀錄。我們的業務轉型進展順利，我們產品組合中的差異化創新正在幫助我們的客戶接受和採用正在發生的多種技術轉型。

However, there were 2 unanticipated events since our last earnings call, which impacted our Q3 revenue performance. The first is the war in Ukraine. This resulted in us ceasing operations in Russia and Belarus and had a corresponding revenue impact, which Scott will discuss. The second relates to COVID-related lockdowns in China, which began in late March. These lockdowns resulted in an even more severe shortage of certain critical components. This, in turn, prevented us from shipping products to customers at the levels we originally anticipated heading into Q3.

然而，自上次財報電話會議以來發生了兩起意外事件，影響了我們第三季的營收表現。首先是烏克蘭戰爭。這導致我們停止在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的業務，並對收入產生了相應的影響，斯科特將對此進行討論。第二個與中國 3 月底開始的與新冠疫情相關的封鎖有關。這些封鎖導致某些關鍵零件的短缺更加嚴重。這反過來又阻止了我們按照最初預期的第三季數量向客戶運送產品。

Our Q4 guidance incorporates a wider-than-usual range, taking into account the revenue impact of the war in Ukraine and the continuing uncertainty related to the China COVID lockdowns. Given this uncertainty, we are being practical about the current environment and erring on the side of caution in terms of our outlook, taking it 1 quarter at a time. We believe that our revenue performance in the upcoming quarters is less dependent on demand and more dependent on the supply availability in this increasingly complex environment.

我們的第四季度指引涵蓋了比平常更廣泛的範圍，考慮到了烏克蘭戰爭對收入的影響以及與中國 COVID 封鎖相關的持續不確定性。鑑於這種不確定性，我們對當前環境持務實態度，在展望方面採取謹慎態度，一次一個季度地考慮問題。我們相信，在日益複雜的環境中，我們未來幾季的收入表現將更少地依賴需求，而更依賴供應的可用性。

While certain aspects of the current situation are largely out of our control, our teams have been working on several mitigation actions to help alleviate many of the component issues that we've been facing. We believe that we will begin to see the benefits of these actions in the first half of next fiscal year.

雖然當前情況的某些方面在很大程度上是我們無法控制的，但我們的團隊一直在採取多項緩解措施，以幫助緩解我們面臨的許多組件問題。我們相信，我們將在下一財年上半年開始看到這些行動的好處。

Now let me talk more specifically about our third quarter performance. As I just mentioned, many of the positives we've discussed over the past few quarters remain, resulting in continued solid demand for our solutions. Total product orders grew 8% year-over-year, leading to yet another record backlog of well over $15 billion, up 10% sequentially and up 130% year-over-year. This momentum reaffirms the critical role we play in our customers' futures.

現在讓我更具體地談談我們第三季的表現。正如我剛才提到的，我們在過去幾個季度討論過的許多積極因素仍然存在，從而導致對我們的解決方案的需求持續強勁。總產品訂單較去年同期成長 8%，積壓訂單金額再次創下超過 150 億美元的新高，季增 10%，較去年同期成長 130%。這一勢頭再次證明了我們在客戶未來中發揮的關鍵作用。

Our business transformation also progressed nicely. In Q3, we saw ARR growth of 11%, ending the quarter at over $22 billion and product ARR growth of 18%. We also exited the quarter with over $30 billion in remaining performance obligations or RPO. We also delivered non-GAAP EPS at the high end of our guidance range. This was driven by effective pricing actions and spending discipline, all of which allowed us to offset lower volumes and deliver both gross and operating margins above the high end of our guidance range and deliver on our bottom line profitability target for the quarter.

我們的業務轉型也進展順利。第三季度，我們的 ARR 成長了 11%，季度末達到 220 多億美元，產品 ARR 成長了 18%。本季結束時，我們還剩下超過 300 億美元的履約義務或 RPO。我們也實現了非公認會計準則每股收益，達到了指導範圍的高端。這是由有效的定價行動和支出紀律推動的，所有這些都使我們能夠抵消較低的銷量，並實現高於指導範圍高端的毛利率和營業利潤率，並實現本季度的底線盈利目標。

I want to reiterate what I said earlier. The fundamental drivers across our business are strong. While we are facing some short-term challenges, it does not change our long-term outlook, our alignment to our customers' most critical challenges or our belief in the tremendous opportunities in front of us.

我想重申我之前說過的話。我們業務的基本驅動力非常強勁。雖然我們面臨一些短期挑戰，但這不會改變我們的長期展望、我們對客戶最關鍵挑戰的關注以及我們對眼前巨大機會的信念。

Last week, we hosted our Global Customer Advisory Board meeting where we met with close to 100 customers. And they consistently shared that technology is at the heart of their strategy and has become even more important to everything they do. It's driving not just their strategies but also their overall business transformation. The technology they are adopting from Cisco is driving their business agility, allowing them to move with greater speed and empowering them to deliver differentiated experiences for their customers.

上週，我們召開了全球客戶顧問委員會會議，並會見了近 100 位客戶。他們始終認為科技是他們策略的核心，並且對他們所做的一切變得更加重要。它不僅推動他們的策略，也推動他們的整體業務轉型。他們採用的思科技術正在推動他們的業務敏捷性，使他們能夠以更快的速度發展，並使他們能夠為客戶提供差異化的體驗。

Now I'd like to touch on some highlights from the quarter. We continue to see strong demand in several areas of our business. Our web scale business remains strong as we continue to help these customers build their capabilities to connect and serve their customers and end users at scale from the data center to the edge. This is leading to continued strength in orders, which grew over 50%. And on a trailing 4-quarter basis, we had over 100% growth. This marks our ninth consecutive quarter of solid demand as we are winning new franchises, expanding our design wins and taking share in web scale. I remain incredibly proud of the progress we've made and the momentum we have in this space.

現在我想談談本季的一些亮點。我們繼續看到我們業務的多個領域需求強勁。隨著我們繼續幫助這些客戶建立從資料中心到邊緣大規模連接和服務其客戶和最終用戶的能力，我們的網路規模業務仍然保持強勁。這使得訂單持續強勁成長，增幅超過 50%。在過去的 4 個季度中，我們的成長率超過了 100%。這是我們連續第九個季度保持強勁的需求，因為我們贏得了新的特許經營權，擴大了我們的設計勝利，並在網路規模上佔據了份額。我對我們在這一領域取得的進步和發展勢頭感到無比自豪。

We are also extremely pleased with the traction of our 400-gig solutions, including the Cisco 8000, which is the fastest-growing SP routing platform in Cisco's history. In addition, our Silicon One portfolio, ZR and ZR+ optics, and our Acacia portfolio of optical networking products, also continue to perform well.

我們也對我們的 400 千兆解決方案的吸引力感到非常高興，其中包括 Cisco 8000，它是思科歷史上成長最快的 SP 路由平台。此外，我們的 Silicon One 產品組合、ZR 和 ZR+ 光學產品以及 Acacia 光網路產品組合也持續表現良好。

From a product revenue perspective, our performance was led by solid demand across a majority of our portfolio, including switching, SP routing, wireless, security and SD-WAN. Our performance in these areas reflect the ongoing investments that our customers are making to rapidly digitize their organizations to deliver differentiated experiences.

從產品收入的角度來看，我們的業績受到大部分產品組合的強勁需求的推動，包括交換、SP 路由、無線、安全性和 SD-WAN。我們在這些領域的表現反映了我們的客戶為快速實現其組織數位化以提供差異化體驗而進行的持續投資。

Looking forward, the shift to hybrid cloud, 5G, 400 gig, IoT, hybrid work and the explosion of applications are driving the increased need for next-generation networking, connectivity, security and observability solutions. Cisco is well positioned to deliver for our customers with our end-to-end platforms and solutions.

展望未來，向混合雲、5G、400千兆、物聯網、混合工作和應用程式的轉變正在推動對下一代網路、連接、安全和可觀察性解決方案的需求不斷增長。思科憑藉其端到端平台和解決方案，已做好充分準備為我們的客戶提供服務。

I'm also very proud of our pace of innovation. During the quarter, Cisco announced new innovations across our networking and cloud portfolios, along with technologies to enhance experiences in hybrid work environments. We also introduced our new predictive networks to help organizations learn, predict and avoid network disruptions. We have even more innovation, which we'll announce at RSA and our own Cisco Live event in June.

我對我們的創新步伐也感到非常自豪。在本季度，思科宣布了我們網路和雲端產品組合中的新創新，以及增強混合工作環境體驗的技術。我們也推出了新的預測網絡，以幫助組織學習、預測和避免網路中斷。我們還有更多創新，我們將於 6 月在 RSA 和我們自己的 Cisco Live 活動上宣布。

In addition to our deep passion for innovation, all of us at Cisco believe we have a unique opportunity to help make the world a better place through both the technology we build and the purpose we rally around to power an inclusive future for all. I believe this intersection of technology and purpose is why we were named the #1 Best Company to Work For in the U.S. by Fortune and Great Place to Work for the second year in a row.

除了對創新的強烈熱情之外，思科的所有人都相信，我們擁有獨特的機會，透過我們所建構的技術和我們為所有人創造包容性未來的目標，幫助世界變得更美好。我相信，正是科技與目標的交匯，讓我們連續第二年被《財星》雜誌和「最佳工作場所」評為美國最佳雇主第一名。

In summary, while the quarter clearly did not play out as expected, demand remains solid and the fundamentals of our business are strong. We remain focused on executing against the strategy we laid out at our Investor Day. We will also continue to be resolute in our focus to transform our business for more predictability and agility while bringing to market a robust pipeline of innovation. We remain confident in our long-term growth and the opportunities that we have in front of us.

總而言之，雖然本季的表現顯然沒有達到預期，但需求依然強勁，我們業務的基本面也很強勁。我們將繼續專注於執行我們在投資者日制定的策略。我們也將繼續堅定不移地致力於業務轉型，以提高可預測性和靈活性，同時為市場帶來強大的創新管道。我們對我們的長期成長和麵臨的機會仍然充滿信心。

I want to thank our teams around the world for all that they do, executing with dedication, focus and excellence in an incredibly dynamic environment. They continue to focus on our customers with unparalleled innovation, resiliency and determination.

我要感謝我們遍布全球的團隊所做的一切，他們在極具活力的環境中以奉獻、專注和卓越的精神完成工作。他們繼續以無與倫比的創新、韌性和決心關注我們的客戶。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Scott.

現在，我將把電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, Chuck. We saw solid growth in product orders, net income and earnings per share despite the challenges Chuck just outlined. Product order growth was driven by strength across most of our portfolio, while disciplined spend and supply chain management drove our profitability.

謝謝，查克。儘管面臨查克剛才概述的挑戰，但我們的產品訂單、淨收入和每股盈餘仍穩定成長。產品訂單的成長得益於我們大部分產品組合的強勁成長，而嚴格的支出和供應鏈管理則推動了我們的獲利能力。

Total revenue was $12.8 billion, flat year-over-year. Our non-GAAP operating margin was 34.7%, up 110 basis points, coming in above the high end of our guidance range. Non-GAAP net income was $3.6 billion, up 3%. And non-GAAP earnings per share was $0.87, up 5%, coming in at the high end of our guidance range.

總收入為128億美元，與去年同期持平。我們的非公認會計準則營業利潤率為 34.7%，上漲 110 個基點，高於我們的指導範圍的高端。非公認會計準則淨收入為 36 億美元，成長 3%。非公認會計準則每股收益為 0.87 美元，成長 5%，達到我們預期範圍的高端。

In March, we stopped business operations in both Russia and Belarus, which had a negative impact to revenue of approximately $200 million or 2 percentage points of growth. Historically, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine collectively have represented approximately 1% of our total revenue. The impact this quarter was a bit higher than our historical run rate due to additional charges to revenue we recorded for uncollectible receivables and other items.

3月份，我們停止了在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的業務運營，這對收入產生了約2億美元的負面影響，即成長2個百分點。從歷史上看，俄羅斯、白俄羅斯和烏克蘭合計占我們總收入的約 1%。由於我們記錄了無法收回的應收帳款和其他項目的額外收入費用，本季的影響略高於我們的歷史運作率。

And as a reminder, Q3 of last year included an extra week, which was a benefit to total revenue in Q3 of '21 of approximately 3 full percentage points of growth. On a combined basis, the impact of the year-over-year total revenue growth rate for the extra week and the war in Ukraine was approximately 5 percentage points.

提醒一下，去年第三季增加了一周，這對 21 年第三季的總收入產生了約 3 個百分點的成長。綜合來看，額外一週和烏克蘭戰爭對年比總收入成長率的影響約為5個百分點。

Looking at our Q3 revenue in more detail. Total product revenue was $9.4 billion, up 3%. Service revenue was $3.4 billion, down 8%, driven by the extra week in the prior year and the war in Ukraine, which combined impacted our growth by approximately 8 percentage points.

更詳細地了解我們的第三季收入。總產品收入為 94 億美元，成長 3%。服務收入為 34 億美元，下降 8%，因為去年同期多出了一周時間，加上烏克蘭戰爭，對我們的成長造成了約 8 個百分點的影響。

Within product revenue, secure agile networks was solid with revenues up 4%. Switching grew driven by strength in data center switching with our Nexus 9000 products. Campus switching growth was led by our Catalyst 9000 and Meraki switching offerings. Wireless had a double-digit increase, driven by broad-based strength across our portfolio, including our WiFi 6 products and Meraki wireless offerings.

在產品收入方面，安全敏捷網路表現穩健，營收成長 4%。我們的 Nexus 9000 產品在資料中心交換領域實力雄厚，推動了交換業務的成長。校園交換的成長是由我們的 Catalyst 9000 和 Meraki 交換產品引領的。無線業務實現了兩位數成長，這得益於我們整個產品組合的廣泛優勢，包括我們的 WiFi 6 產品和 Meraki 無線產品。

We also had solid growth in servers. Enterprise routing declined primarily driven by edge and access, slightly offset by strength in SD-WAN. Internet for the Future was up 6%, driven by strength in Acacia, optical, optics and core networking products, including double-digit growth in the Cisco 8000. Collaboration was down 7%, driven by declines in our meetings, calling and contact center offerings, partially offset by the continued ramp of our Communication Platform as a Service. End-to-end security grew 7% with broad strength across most of the portfolio. Our Zero Trust portfolio performed well with double-digit growth driven by strong performance in our Duo offering. Optimized application experiences was up 8%, driven by double-digit growth in both of our SaaS-based offerings, ThousandEyes and Intersight.

我們的伺服器也實現了穩定成長。企業路由的下降主要受到邊緣和接入的影響，但略微受到 SD-WAN 實力的抵消。未來網路成長 6%，這得益於 Acacia、光學、光學和核心網路產品的強勁表現，其中包括 Cisco 8000 的兩位數成長。協作下降 7%，原因是我們的會議、呼叫和聯絡中心產品下降，但被我們的通訊平台即服務的持續成長部分抵銷。端到端安全性成長了 7%，大部分投資組合都表現強勁。我們的零信任投資組合表現良好，在 Duo 產品強勁表現的推動下實現了兩位數的成長。優化的應用體驗成長了 8%，這得益於我們兩款基於 SaaS 的產品 ThousandEyes 和 Intersight 均實現了兩位數的成長。

We continue to make progress on our transformation metrics as we shift our business to more subscriptions and software. Total software revenue was $3.7 billion, a decrease of 3%, with the product portion down 1%. Total software revenue growth would have been 5 points higher excluding the combined negative impact of the extra week in the prior year and the war in Ukraine. 83% of software revenue was subscription-based, which is up 1 percentage point year-on-year.

隨著我們將業務轉向更多訂閱和軟體，我們的轉型指標繼續取得進展。軟體總收入為 37 億美元，下降 3%，其中產品部分下降 1%。如果不考慮上年額外一週和烏克蘭戰爭的綜合負面影響，軟體總收入成長率將提高 5 個百分點。 83%的軟體收入來自訂閱，較去年同期成長1個百分點。

Total subscription revenue was $5.5 billion, a decrease of 4%. Total subscription revenue would have been 7 points higher, excluding the combined negative impact of the extra week in the prior year and the war in Ukraine. Total subscription revenue represented 43% of Cisco's total revenue. Annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, was $22.4 billion, an increase of 11%, with strong product ARR growth of 18%. And remaining performance obligations, or RPO, was $30.2 billion, up 7%. Product RPO increased 13%. Service RPO increased 3%, and the total short-term RPO grew 9% to $16.2 billion. We had solid product order growth in Q3 of 8% with strength across most of the business.

總訂閱收入為 55 億美元，下降 4%。若不計入上一年額外一週和烏克蘭戰爭的綜合負面影響，總訂閱收入將增加 7 個百分點。總訂閱收入佔思科總營收的43%。年化經常性收入（ARR）為 224 億美元，成長 11%，其中產品 ARR 成長強勁，達到 18%。剩餘履約義務（RPO）為 302 億美元，成長 7%。產品RPO增加了13％。服務 RPO 成長 3%，短期 RPO 總額成長 9%，達到 162 億美元。第三季我們的產品訂單穩健成長 8%，大部分業務表現強勁。

Looking at our geographic segments. The Americas was up 9%; EMEA, up 4%; and APJC, up 11%. In our customer markets, commercial was up 19%, service provider was up 8%, public sector was up 4% and enterprise was flat. From a non-GAAP perspective, total gross margin came in above the high end of our guidance range at 65.3%, down 70 basis points year-over-year. Product gross margin was 64.1%, down 80 basis points. And service gross margin was 68.9%, up 20 basis points. The decrease in product gross margin was primarily driven by ongoing higher component costs related to supply constraints as well as higher freight and logistics costs, partially offset by strong positive pricing impact.

查看我們的地理區域。美洲上漲9%；歐洲、中東和非洲地區，成長 4%； APJC 上漲 ​​11%。在我們的客戶市場中，商業成長了 19%，服務提供者成長了 8%，公共部門成長了 4%，企業持平。從非公認會計準則的角度來看，總毛利率高於我們預期範圍的高端，為 65.3%，年減 70 個基點。產品毛利率為64.1%，下降80個基點。服務毛利率為68.9%，上漲20個基點。產品毛利率下降主要是由於供應限制導致的零件成本持續上漲以及運費和物流成本上漲，但強勁的正面定價效應部分抵銷了這一影響。

We continue to manage through the supply constraints seen industry-wide by us and our peers. To give a sense of scale of the shortages, we currently see constraints in Q4 on roughly 350 critical components out of a total of 41,000 unique component part numbers. Our supply chain team is aggressively pursuing multiple options to close those shortages.

我們將繼續努力克服我們和我們的同行在整個行業中遇到的供應限制。為了讓您了解短缺的規模，我們目前看到第四季度在總共 41,000 個獨特零件編號中大約有 350 個關鍵零件受到限制。我們的供應鏈團隊正在積極尋求多種方案來彌補這些短缺。

Given our solid product orders, we once again saw a significant increase in our backlog levels for both hardware and software well beyond our normal historical levels. As Chuck said, our ending product backlog grew to well over $15 billion and software backlog grew to more than $2 billion, both up 10% sequentially. And just a reminder, backlog is not included as part of our $30.2 billion in remaining performance obligations.

鑑於我們穩定的產品訂單，我們再次看到硬體和軟體的積壓水平顯著增加，遠遠超出了我們的正常歷史水平。正如查克所說，我們的期末產品積壓訂單成長至 150 多億美元，軟體積壓訂單成長至 20 多億美元，均比上一季成長 10%。需要提醒的是，積壓訂單不包含在我們 302 億美元剩餘履約義務中。

We ended Q3 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $20.1 billion. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $3.7 billion, down 6% year-over-year, primarily driven by advanced payments to secure future supply. These advanced payments had a negative 9 percentage point year-on-year impact on Q3 operating cash flow.

截至第三季末，我們的現金、現金等價物及投資總額為 201 億美元。本季營運現金流為 37 億美元，年減 6%，主要由於預付款以確保未來供應。這些預付款對第三季經營現金流產生了年比負 9 個百分點的影響。

In terms of capital allocation, we returned $1.8 billion to shareholders during the quarter that was comprised of $1.6 billion for our quarterly cash dividend and approximately $250 million of share repurchases. Year-to-date, we have returned a total of approximately $10 billion in value to our shareholders via cash dividends and stock repurchases and have more than $17 billion available under our Board stock repurchase authorization.

在資本配置方面，本季我們向股東返還了 18 億美元，其中包括 16 億美元的季度現金股利和約 2.5 億美元的股票回購。年初至今，我們已透過現金股利和股票回購向股東返還了總計約 100 億美元的價值，並且根據董事會的股票回購授權，我們還擁有超過 170 億美元的可用資金。

To summarize, we're navigating the highly complex environment while continuing to make progress on our business model shift and making strategic investments in innovation to capitalize on our significant growth opportunities and expanding addressable markets.

總而言之，我們正在應對高度複雜的環境，同時繼續推動我們的商業模式轉變，並對創新進行策略性投資，以利用我們巨大的成長機會和不斷擴大的潛在市場。

Now let me provide our financial guidance for Q4. In terms of supply, we expect the challenges we experienced in Q3 to continue into Q4. For next quarter, we expect revenue growth to be in the range of minus 1% to minus 5.5%. We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 64% to 65%. Our non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 31.5% to 33.5%, and non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $0.76 to $0.84.

現在讓我提供我們第四季的財務指導。在供應方面，我們預計第三季遇到的挑戰將持續到第四季。對於下個季度，我們預計營收成長將在-1%至-5.5%之間。我們預計非公認會計準則毛利率將在 64% 至 65% 之間。我們的非公認會計準則營業利潤率預計在 31.5% 至 33.5% 之間，非公認會計準則每股收益預計在 0.76 美元至 0.84 美元之間。

For the full year of fiscal '22, guidance is as follows. We expect revenue growth to be in the range of 2% to 3% year-on-year. Non-GAAP earnings per share guidance is expected to range from $3.29 to $3.37, up 2% to 5% year-on-year. In both our Q4 and full year guidance, we're assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 19%.

對於 22 財年全年，指導如下。我們預計收入成長率將達到 2% 至 3% 之間。非公認會計準則每股收益預期在 3.29 美元至 3.37 美元之間，年增 2% 至 5%。在我們的第四季和全年指引中，我們都假設非 GAAP 有效稅率為 19%。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

現在我將話題交還給瑪麗蓮，以便我們進入問答環節。

Thanks, Scott. Michelle, let's go ahead and queue up the Q&A.

謝謝，斯科特。米歇爾，我們繼續排隊問答。

Meta Marshall from Morgan Stanley Investment Research.

摩根士丹利投資研究部的 Meta Marshall。

Maybe Chuck, if you could just kind of give a sense in what you're seeing in macro from your customers. I know that the enterprise orders were flat year-over-year. Just are you seeing any change in their behavior, either just given what's happening in overall macro conditions or just currency and inflation would be helpful.

查克，也許你可以稍微介紹一下你從宏觀從客戶身上看到的情況。我知道企業訂單與去年同期持平。您是否看到他們的行為發生了任何變化，無論是考慮到整體宏觀條件還是貨幣和通貨膨脹都會有所幫助。

Yes. Meta, thank you. So I -- on the demand issue, I'd point out a few things. Number one, without the 2 percentage points of orders that we debooked relative to Russia and Belarus, we grew 10% against a year ago growth of 10%. So we feel good about that. Our customers are not signaling any real shift at this point. We're not hearing that from them. Again, we had our Global Customer Advisory Board just a couple of weeks ago where we had 100 of our biggest customers, and they were all talking about projects and the strategic nature of everything they're trying to accomplish.

是的。 Meta，謝謝你。因此，關於需求問題，我想指出幾點。第一，除去俄羅斯和白俄羅斯減少的2個百分點的訂單，我們的成長是10%，而去年同期的增幅為10%。因此我們對此感到很高興。目前，我們的客戶尚未發出任何真正轉變的信號。我們沒有聽到他們這麼說。再次，就在幾週前，我們成立了全球客戶顧問委員會，其中有 100 位我們最大的客戶，他們都在討論專案以及他們試圖完成的所有事情的策略性質。

The last thing I would point out is on the enterprise side, last quarter, we grew 37%. Just to keep in mind, the way we define enterprise is a finite list of named customers. So it tends to be more lumpy. If I look at how the industry defines enterprise, that would reflect a combination of our enterprise and our commercial business. So for comparisons to what we're hearing in the marketplace, I thought we would give you that combined number. If you combine enterprise and commercial together, we grew 9%. But without the Russia impact, we actually grew 12%. And on a trailing 12-month basis, it grew 28%. So we're still comfortable with the demand signals that we're seeing, and our customers aren't telling us anything differently right now.

我最後要指出的是，在企業方面，上個季度我們的成長了 37%。請記住，我們定義企業的方式是指定客戶的有限清單。因此它往往會變得更加粗糙。如果我看一下產業如何定義企業，那將反映出我們的企業和商業業務的結合。因此，為了與我們在市場上聽到的消息進行比較，我想我們會給你這個合併的數字。如果將企業和商業合併在一起，我們的成長為 9%。但除去俄羅斯的影響，我們的實際成長是12%。而在過去 12 個月中，其成長了 28%。因此，我們對所看到的需求訊號仍然感到滿意，而且我們的客戶現在也沒有告訴我們任何不同的情況。

Samik Chatterjee from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess, Chuck, on the demand question again, just you're guiding to the fiscal fourth quarter to be now almost sort of similar to what the third quarter is or even down a bit, which is, if I go back historically, has never really -- I don't see many instances of that. I mean is that really a reflection of the supply environment? Or are there any other sort of aspects of demand stemming from the geopolitical sort of situation here that's impacting that? And when do we sort of start to see you sort of cycle past some of that?

查克，我想，再次回到需求問題上，您預測第四財季的狀況幾乎與第三季度類似，甚至略有下降，如果我回顧歷史，我從未真正——我沒有看到很多這樣的例子。我的意思是這真的反映了供應環境嗎？或者是否存在其他因地緣政治因素而產生的需求方面對此產生影響？那麼我們什麼時候才能開始看到您經歷這些變化呢？

Yes. Samik, it's a great question. So let me start with just the basic answer is there is no reflection of demand issue in our Q4 guide. That has nothing to do with the Q4 guide. Let me try to describe how we got to that. I think it's important for everybody to understand.

是的。 Samik，這是一個很好的問題。因此，我首先要回答一個基本問題：我們的第四季指南中沒有反映需求問題。這與第四季指南無關。讓我試著描述一下我們是如何做到這一點的。我認為每個人都應該理解這一點。

When we look at our Q3 results, we had -- from a revenue perspective, we had a $200 million impact from us ceasing operations in Russia and corresponding revenue write-downs that occurred. Those were onetime. We then had -- if you recall, our quarter ends at the end of April. Most of what you've heard from others, their quarters end at the end of March. So we experienced an entire quarter of the China lockdowns. And in Shanghai, it was from March 27 until today. Shenzhen shut down, but again, it opened up a week later. So we're talking really about the Shanghai situation.

當我們回顧第三季業績時，從收入角度來看，我們因停止在俄羅斯的業務以及相應的收入減記而受到了 2 億美元的影響。這些都是曾經有過的。然後——如果你還記得的話，我們的季度在四月底結束。您從其他人那裡聽到的大多數消息是，他們的季度在三月底結束。因此，我們經歷了中國整整四分之一的封鎖。在上海，是從3月27日到今天。深圳曾一度關閉，但一週後又重新開幕。所以我們實際上談論的是上海的情況。

So we had $200 million from Russia, and then we had $300 million that was completely attributed to our inability to get power supplies out of China. That's the simplicity of what caused the problem. As an example, we had 11,000 PCB assemblies built we couldn't get power supplies for because of the lockdown. That's a simple fact of what happened in Q3.

因此，我們從俄羅斯獲得了 2 億美元，然後我們又損失了 3 億美元，這完全歸因於我們無法從中國獲得電力供應。這就是導致問題的原因。例如，我們製造了 11,000 個 PCB 組件，但由於封鎖而無法獲得電源。這是第三季發生的一個簡單事實。

When we look at Q4 and you think about the Shanghai lockdown and what we've heard, because in Shanghai, there are lots of components that go into our power supply. So we're not able to get those components. Shanghai now is saying they're going to open up June 1. We don't know exactly what that means and what that means to when that implies that we would start getting any supply out.

當我們展望第四季時，你會想到上海的封鎖以及我們所聽到的消息，因為在上海，我們的電源中有很多組件。所以我們無法取得這些組件。上海現在表示將於 6 月 1 日開放。我們不知道這到底意味著什麼，也不知道我們什麼時候可以開始提供物資。

And correspondingly, we believe when they open up and when they do allow transportation and logistics to start up, we believe there's going to be a high degree of congestion. We believe that there's going to be lots of competition for ports capacity, airport capacity. And we just believe that, that, combined with the inbound efforts, trying to get raw materials back into the country, et cetera, we just believe that it's going to be impossible for us to catch up on this issue in Q4, which is what led to the guidance in Q4.

相應地，我們相信，當他們開放並允許運輸和物流啟動時，我們相信會出現高度擁擠。我們相信港口容量和機場容量的競爭將會非常激烈。我們只是相信，再加上國內努力，試圖將原材料運回國內等等，我們只是相信我們不可能在第四季度解決這個問題，這就是導致第四季度指引的原因。

So even though these top line numbers don't look good is a very simple explanation as to what occurred. So then the follow-on part of your question is, when do we think this gets better? Well, if we make the assumption that China does begin to open up and we do begin to get more natural flow of the power supplies. We also have had our teams over the last 6 to 9 months have been working on a lot of mitigating actions, redesigning 100 products -- over 100 products to give us component diversity. We believe that a combination of those starting in our Q1 and in the first half of our year, we'll start to see the benefit of that. So that's when we expect to see it improve to some extent. We need to get through the next 90 days, but I'm just being as transparent as I can about what we see and when we think some of that improvement will occur.

因此，儘管這些頂線數字看起來不太好，但對於所發生的事情卻有一個非常簡單的解釋。那麼你的問題的後續部分是，我們認為什麼時候情況會變得更好？好吧，如果我們假設中國確實開始開放，我們確實開始獲得更自然的電力供應流動。在過去的 6 到 9 個月裡，我們的團隊一直在採取許多緩解措施，重新設計了 100 種產品——超過 100 種產品，以提供組件多樣性。我們相信，從第一季到今年上半年，我們將開始看到其帶來的好處。因此，我們期望看到情況有所改善。我們需要度過接下來的 90 天，但我會盡可能透明地告知我們觀察到的情況以及我們認為何時會出現一些改善。

Ittai Kidron from Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的 Ittai Kidron。

I guess I want to dig into that a little bit, Chuck, on the supply chain. You seem to be much more impacted than some of your peers in the industry. So I'm just trying to gauge whether you have an unusually high exposure to China that others do not. Is there any color you can give us on what percentage of your components come from China? And why is it that you stand out relative to a couple of others? And I understand that you had an April quarter and some of them had March, but they did report mid/late April and none of them have signaled anything. And so clearly, they've seen what's happening in April, and they haven't said anything.

查克，我想就供應鏈問題深入探討。您似乎比業內的一些同行受到更大的影響。所以我只是想判斷一下您是否對中國有其他人所沒有的異常高的了解。能透露一下你們的零件中有多少比例來自中國嗎？為什麼你比其他幾個人更突出？我知道你們有四月份的季度數據，有些公司有三月的季度數據，但他們確實報告了四月中旬/下旬的數據，而且都沒有任何跡象表明有任何跡象。顯然，他們已經看到了四月發生的一切，但他們什麼也沒說。

And then I guess as a second part of this, just thinking kind of longer term, just given the challenges geopolitically, Ukraine, Russia and the risks that are associated with China on a geopolitical standpoint, but also clearly in their COVID policy, is there any some sort of a long-term planning that disconnects you from China as a source for components longer term?

然後我想作為這個問題的第二部分，只是從長遠考慮，考慮到地緣政治上的挑戰，烏克蘭、俄羅斯以及從地緣政治角度與中國相關的風險，但顯然在他們的 COVID 政策中，是否有某種長期計劃可以長期切斷你們與中國作為零部件來源的聯繫？

Yes. Ittai, thank you. Both good questions. I think on the first one, I think that the biggest differentiation was April. I have spoken to peers who are feeling the same thing we are. But we're reporting the full month of impact, and it was an April issue for us. So now on a normalized basis for that question across the portfolio, all of us design products with different components in. So there's opportunity for us to have a unique issue with one component that we may have designed into a product and -- or we may have a unique advantage because we designed a certain component into a product. And those are the areas where I talked about we're redesigning where we have unique problems or just problems in general. Others may have the same problems.

是的。伊泰，謝謝你。這兩個問題都很好。我認為首先，最大的區別是四月。我曾與和我們有相同感受的同儕交談過。但我們報告的是整個月的影響，對我們來說這是四月的問題。因此，現在在整個產品組合中，針對這個問題進行標準化，我們所有人都設計了包含不同組件的產品。因此，我們有可能在設計到產品中的某個組件上遇到一個獨特的問題，或者我們可能因為我們在產品中設計了某個組件而擁有獨特的優勢。這些就是我談到的我們正在重新設計的領域，我們遇到了獨特的問題或一般性的問題。其他人可能也遇到同樣的問題。

So we think that the exposure in general was because of the month of April. Also, we do massive volumes. And in general, you would think that's a huge advantage. But just to put it in perspective, we shipped more revenue in the last week of our quarter than many of our competitors that you're referencing, shipped in their entire quarter. So it's just an issue that it shows up in a bigger number for us than it would. If they have the same problem, it might be a $20 million impact for us. It might be a $200 million, $400 million impact. So that's the first one.

因此我們認為，總體而言，曝光是由於四月造成的。此外，我們的業務量龐大。總的來說，你會認為這是一個巨大的優勢。但從這個角度來看，我們在本季最後一週的營收比您所提到的許多競爭對手整個季度的營收還要多。因此，對我們來說，出現的數字比實際的數字還要大，這只是一個問題。如果他們遇到同樣的問題，可能會對我們造成 2000 萬美元的損失。這可能會造成 2 億美元、4 億美元的影響。這是第一個。

The second one, what I would say is that we are constantly evaluating our global supply chain. And so it's not about one country. It's about resilience. And the way we've designed supply chains over the last 15, 20 years as an industry, I think we all realize we're evolving that now at the same time that we're triaging all of the current issues that we have. So our teams have a dual challenge. But we are constantly driving geographic resilience. The example I would give is that we -- before COVID, we had regional redundancy built in. We did not have a plan for a country to shut down. And so it takes time to go out and create that geographic resilience, but our teams are working on all of those kinds of things right now. So they will continue to do that, Ittai.

第二，我想說的是，我們一直在評估我們的全球供應鏈。所以這不僅涉及一個國家。這關乎韌性。我們都意識到，在過去 15 到 20 年的時間裡，我們設計供應鏈的方式與行業相同，現在我們正在不斷改進它，同時對當前存在的所有問題進行分類。因此我們的團隊面臨雙重挑戰。但我們一直在不斷推動地理復原力。我想舉的例子是，在新冠疫情之前，我們已經建立了區域冗餘。我們沒有針對一個國家的封鎖計畫。因此，走出去並創造地理彈性需要時間，但我們的團隊現在正在努力解決所有這些問題。所以他們會繼續這樣做，Ittai。

Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

西蒙·利奧波德和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hopefully, I'll make sense here, but I want to give this a shot. Your gross margin looked relatively resilient in the quarter in the outlook, and your revenue was light. We've seen the opposite from some of your peers. And I'm wondering if part of the issue is the usage of brokers in paying very high fees for parts in the, I guess, secondary or tertiary markets. Is that something you didn't do and that prevented you from reaching revenue but allowed you to have a better gross margin? I'm just trying to understand some of your practices relative to your peers that allowed you to have a good gross margin but the lighter sales. Does that all make sense?

希望我在這裡能說得通，但我想嘗試一下。從前景來看，本季你們的毛利率看起來相對有彈性，但收入卻很少。我們從你們的一些同行那裡看到了相反的情況。我想知道問題的一部分是否在於經紀人在二級或三級市場支付非常高的費用。這是你們沒有做的事情，導致你們無法獲得收入，但卻提高了毛利率？我只是想了解你們相對於同行的一些做法，這些做法使得你們獲得了良好的毛利率，但銷售額卻較低。這一切有意義嗎？

It absolutely does, Simon. Let me start and then I'm going to kick it to Scott to talk a little bit about it. So first and foremost, we are incredibly active purchasers in the broker market. And you can imagine with our buying power, they call us first. And so no, that has nothing to do with it. In fact, we've spent a lot of time with our supply chain team who are giving us examples of where they've bought product in the broker market recently. So I don't think that's it, but Scott can explain what did happen there.

確實如此，西蒙。讓我先開始，然後我會把話題交給史考特來稍微談論一下。因此，首先，我們是經紀市場上極為活躍的購買者。你可以想像，憑藉我們的購買力，他們會先打電話給我們。所以，這與此無關。事實上，我們花了很多時間與我們的供應鏈團隊交流，他們向我們提供了他們最近在經紀市場購買產品的例子。所以我不認為事情就是這樣，但史考特可以解釋那裡到底發生了什麼事。

Yes. It's a great question, Simon. What I'd add is, if you recall, we did 2 price increases this year. The first one rolled in right about the end of the calendar year and the second one at the beginning of our second quarter. And we said at the time that we thought -- you continue to ask, like, "Hey, when are those price increases? When are they going to show up in the top line?" And we said we thought we would begin to see the benefit of those toward the end of the third quarter, which is the quarter we just closed. And that's exactly what happened.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，西蒙。我想補充的是，如果您還記得的話，我們今年已經提價兩次。第一次是在日曆年末左右，第二次是在第二季初。我們當時就說過，我們認為——你會繼續問，「嘿，這些價格甚麼時候會上漲？它們什麼時候會在營收中體現出來？」我們說，我們認為我們將在第三季末（也就是我們剛剛結束的季度）開始看到這些好處。事實也確實如此。

So while the unit shipments in the quarter were off because of the issues that we've talked about with the supply chain, with the component supply, the -- we were able to offset that with pretty strong pricing. In fact -- and this -- we published this in our Q, so you'll see it there. But our pricing was up about 160 basis points in Q3. So while we did have a unit impact from the component supply, it was offset by some of the things that we're doing in the -- we're beginning to realize on the price front.

因此，雖然由於我們討論過的供應鏈、零件供應問題導致本季單位出貨量下降，但我們能夠透過相當強勁的定價來彌補這一損失。事實上——我們在 Q 中發布了這個，所以你會在那裡看到它。但我們的價格在第三季上漲了約 160 個基點。因此，雖然零件供應確實對單位產生了影響，但它被我們在價格方面採取的一些措施所抵消了——我們開始意識到這一點。

We are actively pursuing every avenue. It's got to be a qualified vendor. And so we're working to qualify different sources at the same time. But we are actively pursuing that, whether it's through a broker, obviously, directly from the vendor but through a broker distributor. We're pursuing all those channels, and that is creating a bit of a headwind to us.

我們正在積極探索各種途徑。它必須是一個合格的供應商。因此，我們正在努力同時鑑定不同的來源。但我們正在積極追求這一點，無論是透過經紀人，顯然是直接從供應商那裡，還是透過經紀人經銷商。我們正在探索所有這些管道，這給我們帶來了一些阻力。

Sami Badri from Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的薩米‧巴德里 (Sami Badri)。

First one is a clarification on the product order growth number that was reported of 8%. Could you give us an idea on how much price increases contributed to the product order growth number? That's the first question. And then just a second question is we're just trying to piece together and explain, even after accounting for the Russia, Ukraine contribution, why enterprise would grow 0% versus some of your peers that are reporting far greater reports and trends, and specifically enterprise. Could you just try to maybe triangulate a little bit more about what's going on there?

首先要澄清的是，產品訂單成長數字為 8%。您能否告訴我們價格上漲對產品訂單成長的貢獻有多大？這是第一個問題。第二個問題是，我們只是試圖拼湊並解釋，即使考慮到俄羅斯和烏克蘭的影響，為什麼企業的成長率為 0%，而其他一些同行的報告和趨勢要好得多，特別是企業。您能否嘗試進一步了解那裡發生的事情？

Okay. First, I'll let Scott add on the price increase in a moment. But first of all, the price increase really did not have significant impact on our growth. We only pass through pricing at the time that was offsetting our incremental cost. And to be honest, we've incurred more costs since then. So we're at a place right now where we have not even passed through all the costs that we have incurred. We're getting price increases all the time now. So that's the first answer.

好的。首先，我會讓斯科特稍後補充一下價格上漲的情況。但首先，價格上漲確實沒有對我們的成長產生重大影響。我們僅透過當時抵銷增量成本的定價。說實話，自那時起，我們的成本就增加了。所以我們現在處於甚至還沒有償還所有已發生成本的階段。我們現在的價格一直在上漲。這是第一個答案。

On the second one, the easiest thing for me to tell you is what I said earlier, that the way our peers view and report in the industry views and reports enterprise would be the combination of our enterprise and commercial business, which last quarter would have grown 9% and would have grown 12% without -- or it grew 9% but would have been 12% without Russia. So if you think about the size of that -- those 2 businesses combined growing 9%, I'm pretty comfortable with that, that the demand is still there. And if you look at our commercial business, which usually is the leading indicator of a shift of demand momentum, they grew 19% in the quarter. So I'm not concerned.

關於第二個問題，對我來說，最容易告訴你的就是我之前說過的，我們的同行對企業的看法和報告是企業和商業業務的結合，上個季度我們的企業業務增長了 9%，如果沒有俄羅斯的話，增長幅度會達到 12%——或者說，雖然增長了 9%，但如果沒有俄羅斯的話，增長幅度會達到 12%——或者說，雖然增長了 9%，但如果沒有俄羅斯的話，增長幅度會達到 12%。因此，如果你考慮一下規模——這兩家企業合計成長了 9%，我對此感到非常放心，因為需求仍然存在。如果你看我們的商業業務，它通常是需求動能轉變的領先指標，本季它成長了 19%。所以我並不擔心。

Yes. And Sami, to the first part of your question, the 160 basis point impact that we saw in Q3 from pricing is a revenue statement. Obviously, to go from bookings to revenue, it first has to flow through the backlog and then get realized. So the impact on bookings, while we haven't quantified it, would be a little bit higher than that 160 basis points.

是的。薩米，關於你問題的第一部分，我們在第三季度看到的定價 160 個基點的影響是收入報表。顯然，要從預訂量轉化為收入，首先必須處理積壓訂單，然後才能實現。因此，雖然我們還沒有量化，但對預訂量的影響會略高於 160 個基點。

Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅德霍爾 (Rod Hall)。

I guess I want to come back because I think the main investor question coming out of this will be these product orders, Chuck. And I know you're saying that combined that they -- I heard all the things that you said there. I think that if you look at the sequential movement on those, it's quite a bit below normal seasonality. Even if you give the 10% growth on a year-over-year basis on the product orders, you're still down mid-single digits sequentially and that's way below normal seasonality. But we know that we're coming off historical highs on these product orders.

我想我想回來是因為我認為投資者的主要問題將是這些產品訂單，查克。我知道您說的是綜合起來——我聽到了您所說的一切。我認為，如果你看這些的連續變動，你會發現它遠低於正常的季節性。即使產品訂單年增 10%，但環比成長仍將下降中個位數，遠低於正常的季節性。但我們知道，這些產品訂單已不再是歷史最高水準。

So I guess what I'm wondering is if you can give us any idea on trajectory on product doors as we head into next quarter. Because I could see a scenario where product orders decline to kind of 2019 July levels, in which case you'd be down double digits, but you'd still be in good product order territory, if that makes any sense. So hoping maybe you could just give us a little bit more color on what you think that trajectory looks like and how those orders are normalizing over time. And then maybe I have a follow-up. I mean that's kind of a long question.

所以我想知道的是，您是否可以告訴我們下個季度產品門的發展軌跡。因為我可以看到這樣一種情況，即產品訂單下降到 2019 年 7 月的水平，在這種情況下，你會下降兩位數，但你仍然處於良好的產品訂單領域，如果這有任何意義的話。所以希望您能給我們多一點說明一下您認為的軌跡是什麼樣的，以及這些訂單是如何隨著時間的推移而正常化的。然後我可能會有一個後續行動。我的意思是這是一個很長的問題。

I got you, Rod. And you're actually thinking about the right way. You're thinking about it exactly the way I'm thinking about it. So first thing I'll say is that I think any seasonality right now is out the window with the current situation and with what we've seen with the order demand. We're doing 18-month planning with certain customers. And if they placed 18 months' worth of orders last quarter and now they're going to pause and we may be doing it with 3 fewer customers this quarter. So I mean it's just a -- it's a very difficult thing to get your head around.

我明白你的意思了，羅德。而且你確實在思考正確的方法。您的想法和我的想法完全一樣。因此，我要說的第一件事是，我認為，就目前的情況以及我們所看到的訂單需求而言，任何季節性因素都已不復存在。我們正在與某些客戶制定 18 個月的規劃。如果他們上個季度下了 18 個月的訂單，現在他們要暫停，那麼本季我們可能會少 3 位客戶。所以我的意思是這只是一個——這是一個很難理解的事情。

So there's 2 things that I look at. Number one, what is our quarterly growth rate vis-à-vis a year ago to see? Because I think about momentum of demand from 1 quarter to the next sort of -- you have to look at that delta, right? Because if you grow 30% on 1% and then you grew 30% on 15%, then that would be declining demand momentum. That's the way I think about the math, right? So that's one thing we watch for.

所以我要關注兩件事。第一，與去年同期相比，我們的季度成長率是多少？因為我考慮從一個季度到下一個季度的需求動能——你必須看看那個增量，對吧？因為如果在 1% 的基礎上成長 30%，然後在 15% 的基礎上成長 30%，那麼需求動能就會下降。這就是我對數學的看法，對嗎？這是我們要關注的一件事。

But the second thing is, I think, to your point, I've been talking to the team about it. When we start comparing against these 30% quarters, I think we have to go back 2 years and get a real assessment because those numbers we know had pull ahead in. We don't know how much, as we've talked about. But I think you're right, we have to sort of do an analysis from 2 years back to really feel like what are we really seeing right now. And that's -- it's going to be a difficult thing for us to navigate because the historical way we've looked at these metrics just won't apply right now. And I think once we cycle through a year, another 4 quarters of this stuff, maybe we get to a normalized view. As I've said, we're going to go through a phase where our order demand growth will be lagging our revenue growth, and then hopefully, will get to a point where those to get back into more of a predictive model. And we just got to get there.

但第二件事是，我想，正如你所說，我一直在和團隊討論這個問題。當我們開始與這些 30% 的季度進行比較時，我認為我們必須回顧 2 年前的情況並進行真實的評估，因為我們知道這些數字已經領先。我們不知道領先幅度有多大，正如我們已經討論過的。但我認為你是對的，我們必須對兩年前的情況進行分析，才能真正感受到我們現在看到的是什麼。這對我們來說將是一件困難的事情，因為我們看待這些指標的歷史方式現在並不適用。我認為，一旦我們回顧一年，再回顧四個季度，我們也許就能得到一個正常化的觀點。正如我所說，我們將經歷一個階段，我們的訂單需求成長將落後於我們的收入成長，然後希望能夠達到更符合預測模型的程度。我們必須到達那裡。

Okay. That's great. And I guess, Chuck, on that subject, I know you talked to a lot of CIOs, CEOs. What are people thinking now? I mean it seems like everywhere you look, there's bad news, and it's hard to believe people are feeling like they want to spend a lot of money. But I'm curious -- yet the demand still seems pretty good. So I'm just curious what you're hearing from people, how the tone of conversations is going.

好的。那太棒了。我想，查克，關於這個主題，我知道你和很多 CIO、CEO 談過。人們現在在想什麼？我的意思是，似乎無論你看向哪裡，都有壞消息，很難相信人們會想要花很多錢。但我很好奇——需求似乎仍然相當好。所以我只是好奇你從人們那裡聽到了什麼，談話的語氣如何。

I think COVID changed everything about how our customers think about technology. I think that pre-COVID, a lot of customers, when they went to slow spending, they would stop spending on technology. And I think COVID had them feel the impact of those decisions, and they're not -- they're going to be very prudent about stopping key projects that are giving them customer differentiation capabilities or modernization of their infrastructure or supporting hybrid work or making sure they're not falling behind their competitors.

我認為 COVID 徹底改變了我們的客戶對科技的看法。我認為，在疫情之前，許多消費者在減少支出時，就會停止在技術上的支出。我認為 COVID 讓他們感受到了這些決定的影響，而且他們不會——他們會非常謹慎地停止那些能給他們帶來客戶差異化能力或基礎設施現代化或支持混合工作或確保他們不會落後於競爭對手的關鍵項目。

I mean it's just a different day today relative to what CEOs and public sector leaders, how they think about technology and the importance of it. Even though they thought it was really important 3 years ago, their understanding of it today is just much different. And so I'm not saying they won't make those decisions. I just think there's a higher bar for them to make those decisions.

我的意思是，今天的情況與執行長和公共部門領導人對技術及其重要性的看法有所不同。儘管三年前他們認為這非常重要，但他們今天對它的理解卻大不相同。所以我並不是說他們不會做出這些決定。我只是認為他們做出這些決定的標準更高。

Tal Liani from Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Tal Liani。

I have -- I still have difficulties to model next year because we still didn't even start comparing the high growth rates of orders. This is -- we're still comparing 10% to 10% of last year. Next quarter, you're getting to 30%, and you have multiple quarters of 30%. At that point of time, revenue growth should accelerate just because of supply chain starts -- supposed to get better somewhere or your actions, but we're seeing order growth decelerating instead of accelerating. So should we -- when we look at the next few quarters, could there be a combination of both order growth going down materially, maybe even to negative levels, at the same time also revenue growth being negative? I mean I'm trying to understand how to think about the next few quarters.

我仍然很難預測明年的訂單量，因為我們甚至還沒有開始比較訂單的高成長率。這是——我們仍在將 10% 與去年的 10% 進行比較。下個季度，這一比例將達到 30%，並且有多個季度達到 30%。在那個時間點，收入成長應該會加速，只是因為供應鏈的啟動——應該在某個地方或你的行動變得更好，但我們看到訂單成長在減速而不是加速。那麼，當我們展望未來幾季時，我們是否應該看到訂單成長大幅下降，甚至降至負值，同時營收成長也為負？我的意思是我試圖了解如何考慮接下來的幾個季度。

Do you want to take it, Scott?

你想接受它嗎，史考特？

Yes. Tal, I think the way to think about it is, back to one of the statistics that we gave you first time last quarter and then again this quarter, we've got backlog now of greater than $15 billion in product. And within that, more than $2 billion of software sitting in backlog. You add that to the $30-plus billion of RPO we've got, and we're sitting on about $45 billion of sales we've transacted that have not yet accreted to the revenue line.

是的。塔爾，我認為思考這個問題的方式是，回到我們上個季度和本季第一次給您提供的統計數據之一，我們現在積壓的產品價值超過 150 億美元。其中，有價值超過 20 億美元的軟體積壓。加上我們現有的 300 多億美元的 RPO，我們目前已完成的銷售額中還有約 450 億美元尚未計入收入。

So I think for -- as you think about the way you want to model out next year, you need to think about the rate and pace of revenue growth being dependent on supply versus being dependent on in-quarter bookings growth. And that's certainly the way I think about it.

所以我認為——當你思考明年的模型時，你需要考慮收入成長的速度和步伐取決於供應量，還是取決於季度預訂量的成長。我確實是這麼想的。

And when you think about the order trends, I mean orders, it's dollars, but not all the products have the same trends. There some of the products that are very big in terms of contribution, like sales provider side, et cetera. I have to guess that the trends there are better than the trends in the enterprise, et cetera. So does it mean the order numbers that you provide, can you dig in a little bit deeper below just a single number for orders and tell us the areas where order growth is better and the areas where order growth is actually worse?

當您考慮訂單趨勢時，我的意思是訂單，是美元，但並非所有產品都有相同的趨勢。有些產品的貢獻非常大，例如銷售提供者方面等等。我不得不猜測那裡的趨勢比企業中的趨勢要好，等等。那麼，這是否意味著您提供的訂單數量，您能否深入挖掘訂單的單一數字，並告訴我們訂單成長較好的領域和訂單成長實際上較差的領域？

Yes. We -- I think some of that is available in the slides that we'll put up online. It may also be in the press release. We talked about enterprise. Enterprise orders were flat for the quarter, but then you have to normalize in the impact of the Russia and Belarus -- the decision to stop operations in Russia and Belarus. That would take it up to a 3% growth in orders. That's following a quarter where enterprise grew 37%. And the quarter before that, it grew 30%.

是的。我們——我認為其中一些內容可以在我們在網路上發布的幻燈片中找到。也可能在新聞稿中。我們談論了企業。本季企業訂單持平，但必須將俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的影響正常化——決定停止在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的業務。這將使其訂單量增加 3%。此前一個季度，企業成長了 37%。而此前一個季度，其成長了 30%。

So with these -- the way we define enterprise, as Chuck talked about, it's our biggest customers. And that business, by definition, is going to be a bit lumpy. But on a trailing 12 months, it's actually quite strong. We continue to see nice growth in SP, particularly in web scale. We gave you some of those stats during the call as well. Those are doing well. Public sector continues to hold up. Public sector demand has continued to be fine for us.

因此，正如查克所說，我們對企業的定義是，它是我們最大的客戶。從定義上來說，這項業務將會有些坎坷。但從過去 12 個月來看，它實際上相當強勁。我們繼續看到 SP 的良好成長，特別是在網路規模方面。我們在通話中也向您提供了一些統計數據。這些都做得很好。公共部門持續保持堅挺。對我們來說，公共部門的需求一直都很好。

And commercial, you remember, we talked about this when we first went into the pandemic that we saw commercial tip down before the rest of the sales tipped down. And then as things began to recover in late fiscal '20, we saw commercial tip off. It tends to be a leading indicator for us, and commercial growth -- product order growth was up 19% last quarter. So we're not seeing -- if that's the leading indicator, and it certainly has been for us, we're not seeing any weakness in demand at this point.

您還記得嗎，我們在疫情剛開始時就討論過這個問題，當時我們看到商業銷售額在其他銷售額下降之前就下降了。然後，隨著 20 財年末情況開始復甦，我們看到了商業線索。它往往是我們商業成長的領先指標——上個季度產品訂單成長率上升了 19%。因此，我們沒有看到——如果這是領先指標，而且對我們來說確實如此，那麼我們目前沒有看到需求有任何疲軟。

Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

保羅·西爾弗斯坦 (Paul Silverstein) 與 Cowen 合作。

Guys, if I could ask for 2 clarifications. First off, I think I heard you cite a $300 million China lockdown Shanghai revenue impact in Q3. I didn't hear you cite what the expected revenue impact is in Q4. Can you share that with us?

夥計們，我可以要求您澄清兩個問題嗎？首先，我想我聽到您提到了中國封鎖對上海第三季 3 億美元收入的影響。我沒有聽到您提到第四季度的預期收入影響是什麼。能與我們分享一下嗎？

Paul, thanks. Yes, we had -- in Q3, it was very simple for us to articulate it because we know exactly what we're expecting and everything else. We don't have the ability in Q4 to understand when they're really going to open up and how much we're going to get, et cetera, which caused us to create the range we did and just -- we're just being realistic about what we believe we'll be able to get out the door. But to actually peg it to power supplies, in particular, is pretty difficult. But I mean most of the issues that we see right now, the concerning area right now is really getting that -- getting China opened up again, getting that stuff shipping, and we need to see that. So Scott, you want to add something?

保羅，謝謝。是的，在第三季度，我們能夠非常輕鬆地表達這一點，因為我們確切地知道我們的期望以及其他一切。在第四季度，我們無法了解他們何時會真正開放以及我們將獲得多少收益等等，這導致我們創建了我們所做的範圍，並且 - 我們只是對我們相信我們能夠獲得的東西持現實態度。但實際上將其與電源掛鉤是相當困難的。但我的意思是，我們現在看到的大多數問題，現在真正令人擔憂的領域是讓中國再次開放，讓這些貨物運輸起來，我們需要看到這一點。那麼史考特，你想補充一點嗎？

Yes. What I'd add to that is -- we give the example of power supplies because that was a constraint in Q3. And part of the issue that we had in Q3 is that constraint came up very late in the quarter, right? We -- when Shanghai went into lockdown, we didn't immediately see that hit. It hit more towards the second half of April, which, of course, was within our quarter. It wasn't within the quarter of many of our peers. And there was just no time to recover from that.

是的。我想補充的是──我們舉電源的例子，因為這是第三季的一個限制因素。我們在第三季遇到的問題之一是，限制在本季末才出現，對嗎？當上海進入封鎖狀態時，我們並沒有立即感受到這種打擊。它在四月下半月影響更大，當然，這也在我們這個季度之內。它不在我們許多同行的四分之一之內。根本沒有時間恢復。

But I don't want you to oversimplify, and I hope I'm not leading you to that. It's not just power supplies. We've got issues in a number of different areas. I tried to give you a sense of scale because I know it's 41,000 unique components, what we said is about 350 have potential supply concerns right now. We're working those every day. And every day, some of them get resolved. And then every day, a couple more will come on to that list. So it's not -- unfortunately, it would be convenient if it was just 1 or 2 things and we could say, yes, here's exactly what those are. It is a very dynamic situation. And what we're trying to do if you zoom up a level is say, we're not assuming it gets better or worse as we scroll through Q4, and that's what's built into the guidance.

但我不希望你把事情過度簡化，我希望我沒有讓你陷入這種境地。這不僅僅是電源問題。我們在許多不同領域都遇到了問題。我試著讓你了解規模，因為我知道它有 41,000 個獨特的組件，我們說現在大約有 350 個潛在的供應問題。我們每天都在做這些工作。每天，一些問題都會解決。然後每天，都會有更多的人加入這個名單。所以不是——不幸的是，如果只有 1 或 2 件事，那將會很方便，我們可以說，是的，這就是那些事情。這是一個非常動態的情況。如果你放大一個級別，我們試圖做的是，我們不會假設隨著我們滾動到第四季度，情況會變得更好或更糟，這就是指導中所包含的內容。

But Chuck and Scott, the obvious question is to that statement, of the $1 billion, $1 billion-plus shortfall in guidance relative to Street expectations, is that all, the lack of visibility you have, the concern -- the understandable concern you have with respect to supply, is that all in the supply portion of the equation? Going back to all the many questions that have been asked about your order book, the slowdown in orders and the quality of demand, does any of that shortfall in your guidance concern about demand? Or is that all on the supply side of the equation?

但是查克和斯科特，顯而易見的問題是，對於這一聲明，相對於華爾街的預期，指導金額有 10 億美元甚至 10 億美元以上的缺口，這就是你們缺乏透明度的全部原因嗎？你們對供應的擔憂是可以理解的，這都是等式的供應部分的問題嗎？回顧所有關於您的訂單、訂單放緩和需求品質的問題，您的指導中是否有任何不足之處與需求有關？還是這都是供給方面的問題？

0. There's no demand impact in our Q4 guide.

0. 我們的第四季指南中沒有需求影響。

It's 100% supply.

這是100%的供應量。

100% supply.

100% 供應。

One other quick clarification on this topic. If we looked at the linearity of your order book, I know normally, we talk about linearity of revenue. But if we look at the linearity of your orders during the quarter, post the quarter up to this call, what will we see?

關於這個主題還有一點需要快速澄清。如果我們查看訂單簿的線性，我知道通常我們談論的是收入的線性。但是，如果我們查看本季訂單的線性情況，並將本季發佈到本次電話會議，我們會看到什麼？

It was normal, very normal.

這很正常，非常正常。

So you've seen no degradation, you'd argue?

所以您認為您沒有看到任何退化，對嗎？

No.

不。

[Q3] was right in line with normal pattern.

[Q3] 完全符合正常模式。

And I think, Paul, the thing to remember is we're a little skewed because we had 3 quarters of 30%. If we went back 1.5 years and I said we're going to grow 10% product orders on top of 10% quarter from a year ago, we would have been quite happy with it. We're just worried about it because it's fallen 3 30s when there was a lot of planned purchases built into. So we'll tell you, obviously, next quarter, we'll have an update. But it's -- right now, it doesn't feel like there's any significant shift.

保羅，我認為要記住的是，我們有點偏差，因為我們有 3 個季度的比例都是 30%。如果我們回到 1.5 年前，我說我們的產品訂單將在去年同期 10% 的基礎上再成長 10%，我們會對此感到非常高興。我們只是對此感到擔心，因為當初有很多計劃採購時，它已經下降了 3 個 30 秒。因此，我們會告訴您，顯然，下個季度我們將進行更新。但就目前而言，感覺好像沒有任何重大轉變。

And Chuck, a cynic would say -- you didn't see anything last quarter relative -- you're talking understandably the last quarter about 3 straight quarters of 30-plus percent growth. You didn't advertise, advise about any expected slowdown or looking at any slowdown, and now the tune's changed. I'm just playing devil's advocate here, obviously, but...

查克，一個憤世嫉俗的人會說——你沒有看到上個季度的任何相關情況——你可以理解地說，上個季度連續 3 個季度實現了 30% 以上的增長。您沒有做廣告，沒有就任何預期的經濟放緩提出建議，也沒有關注任何經濟放緩，現在情況已經改變了。顯然，我只是在這裡扮演魔鬼代言人，但是...

Paul, that's fine, but we don't -- we never have any commentary about future bookings expectations.

保羅，這很好，但是我們從來沒有對未來的預訂預期發表任何評論。

David Vogt from UBS.

瑞銀的 David Vogt。

I just had a follow-up on backlog and near-term RPO. If I'm not mistaken, I think your near-term RPO is flat sequentially at roughly $16.2 billion, $16.3 billion. And if I tack on sort of $1 billion increase quarter-over-quarter in your backlog, given sort of the supply chain constraints that you've articulated and maybe what some of your peers are saying, I mean, I guess I'm trying to triangulate on what the revenue trajectory looks like as we go into next year. I mean you mentioned, Chuck, to throw seasonality off the window. But is it within the realm of possibility that we could start the year next year in the first half at sort of a run rate on where we are today as we exit this year? I mean is that a realistic probability given on how revenue kind of flows through? And then I have a quick clarification follow-up.

我剛剛跟進了積壓工作和近期的 RPO。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為你們近期的 RPO 將與上一季持平，約為 162 億美元和 163 億美元。如果我將您的積壓訂單量比上一季增加 10 億美元，考慮到您所闡述的供應鏈限制以及您的一些同行所說的內容，我想嘗試對明年的收入軌跡進行三角測量。我的意思是，查克，你提到要擺脫季節性的影響。但是，我們是否有可能在明年上半年開始時就達到與今年年底相同的運行速度？我的意思是，這是收入流向的現實機率嗎？然後我會快速澄清後續情況。

Sure. On the RPO that we talked about, you got the number right, $16.2 billion of short-term RPO, which is up 9%. And so short term, by definition, means accretes into the revenue stream in the next 12 months. That growing by 9% is a pretty good leading indicator of at least what that piece of our -- how that piece of our business looks. As we go into Q4, and then we'll give you an update on how short-term RPO growth looks at the end of Q4, and you can get a sense of it into fiscal '23.

當然。關於我們談到的 RPO，您的數字是正確的，短期 RPO 為 162 億美元，成長了 9%。因此，根據定義，短期意味著在未來 12 個月內累積到收入流。 9% 的成長率是一個相當好的領先指標，至少可以反映出我們業務的這一部分情況。隨著我們進入第四季度，我們將向您介紹第四季度末短期 RPO 成長情況，以便您了解 23 財年的情況。

Great. And then maybe just as a follow-up. When you think about where backlog peaks and where maybe purchase order commitments on your end peaks, obviously, no supply chains kind of throw a lot of sort of the calculation out the window. But as you look at your order book and what you see from a demand perspective from your customers, how would you sort of handicap where we think we reach that sort of peak commitment from your perspective to make sure that you have the appropriate components and parts to meet the demand longer term, right? Are we talking about as order growth decelerates from 8% in this quarter, it ultimately could decelerate a little bit further? Are we a little bit closer to peak on both of those metrics than maybe we thought a quarter or 2 ago?

偉大的。然後也許只是作為後續行動。當您考慮積壓訂單的峰值以及您終端的採購訂單承諾的峰值時，顯然，沒有任何供應鏈會將大量的計算拋諸腦後。但是，當您查看訂單簿並從客戶需求的角度看到的情況時，您會如何限制我們認為從您的角度來看我們達到峰值承諾的位置，以確保您擁有適當的組件和零件來滿足長期需求，對嗎？我們是否談論的是，隨著本季訂單成長率從 8% 放緩，最終可能會進一步放緩？與一兩個季度前相比，我們是否更接近這兩個指標的峰值？

Yes. There's kind of 2 angles to that, David, that I'll try to touch on. One is the -- when does the backlog itself peak. And while we don't forecast that, it would not surprise me to see it grow again in Q4.

是的。大衛，關於這一點，我試著從兩個角度來談一談。一是——積壓訂單本身何時達到高峰。雖然我們沒有預測到這一點，但如果看到它在第四季度再次成長，我並不會感到驚訝。

On the second piece in terms of purchase commitments, you saw they were up pretty substantially again in Q3, I guess, back to the earlier question of as our supply chain team not being aggressive enough in pursuing parts. Purchase commitments now sit at a pretty high level and inventory sits at a pretty high level. And that's so that as we clear the supply constraints on a few critical components, we can actually quickly convert that into finished goods product and get it in the hands of our customers who want those products. So it's -- is the peak now at the peak in Q4 or Q1? Really a lot depends on the fluidity of availability of these critical components that we're chasing down.

關於第二部分採購承諾，您會看到它們在第三季度再次大幅上漲，我想，這又回到了先前的問題，即我們的供應鏈團隊在採購零件方面不夠積極。現在的採購承諾和庫存都處於相當高的水平。這樣，當我們消除一些關鍵零件的供應限制後，我們實際上可以快速將其轉換為成品，並將其交給需要這些產品的客戶手中。那麼——現在的高峰是第四季的高峰還是第一季的高峰？事實上，這在很大程度上取決於我們正在追尋的這些關鍵部件的可用性的流動性。

I hope that makes sense to you. We're sitting on both a record backlog and record inventory, which seems like it's in contrast with one another, but it's not, right? We're holding on to the parts that we've got, and we just have to get the remainder to square the sets and get those building out the door.

我希望這對你來說有意義。我們既有創紀錄的積壓訂單，也有創紀錄的庫存，這看起來似乎是相互對比的，但事實並非如此，對嗎？我們保留現有的零件，只需將剩餘的零件組裝起來，然後就可以把建築物運出去了。

Yes. No, that make sense. We're trying to understand sort of the cash flow conversion. So that's helpful.

是的。不，這很有道理。我們正在嘗試了解現金流轉換的情況。這很有幫助。

Pierre Ferragu, you may go ahead, from New Street Research.

皮耶費拉古 (Pierre Ferragu)，你可以繼續，來自 New Street Research。

This is Ben Harwood standing in for Pierre. We had a couple of questions. So firstly, you talked about most of your issues arising in April. So the full quarter is around 4%, 5% below expectations. Does this mean April activity was around 10%, 15% below your expectations?

這是代替皮埃爾的本·哈伍德 (Ben Harwood)。我們有幾個問題。首先，您談到了四月出現的大部分問題。因此整個季度的成長率約為 4%，低於預期 5%。這是否意味著 4 月的活動比您的預期低 10% 到 15% 左右？

And then secondly, what happens to this demand that you cannot meet in the third and fourth quarter? Do you think it spills over into 2023? And then what would give you confidence on that? And then what kind of time frame should we expect that loss demand to be met?

其次，如果第三季和第四季無法滿足這些需求，該怎麼辦？您認為這種趨勢會延續到 2023 年嗎？那麼什麼能讓您對此充滿信心呢？那麼，我們應該預期在什麼樣的時間範圍內滿足損失需求呢？

Scott?

史考特？

Yes. Ben, on the first part of your question, I didn't exactly follow your math. But relative to expectations, we talked about the -- yes, in the month of April, we talked about the -- obviously, the decision we made to stop operations in Russia, Belarus had a $200 million impact to the quarter. Most of that was -- it was 2 months of revenue that we had to forego, and there were some receivables we had to write off within that. On the supply chain side, it would have made up the remainder of that delta to our expectations for the quarter. I hope that answers your question. I'm not quite sure I followed what you were trying to get at with that.

是的。本，關於你問題的第一部分，我並不完全理解你的計算方法。但相對於預期，我們談到了——是的，在四月份，我們談到了——顯然，我們決定停止在俄羅斯、白俄羅斯的業務，這對本季產生了 2 億美元的影響。其中大部分是——我們不得不放棄 2 個月的收入，並且我們必須在此期間註銷一些應收帳款。在供應鏈方面，它將彌補我們對本季預期的剩餘差距。我希望這能回答你的問題。我不太確定我是否明白了你想要表達的意思。

I was just saying that the amount that we said we missed by, if you look at what we would have expected in April from a linearity perspective, it was a certain percentage of it. So it's just a mathematical issue. It's probably correct, but we didn't check.

我只是說，如果你從線性角度來看我們四月份的預期，我們所說的錯過的金額是其中的一定百分比。所以這只是一個數學問題。它可能是正確的，但我們沒有檢查。

Yes. I don't actually think about it in those terms.

是的。我實際上並沒有從這些方面來考慮這個問題。

I don't either.

我也不這麼認為。

But yes. Again, if I didn't answer your question, Ben, we can follow up afterward.

但確實如此。再說一次，如果我沒有回答你的問題，本，我們可以隨後跟進。

Okay. He asked a second one, too, about the backlog rolling over into '23.

好的。他也詢問了第二個問題，關於積壓案件是否延續到 23 年。

Yes. I mean with the backlog, so a couple of things. I think what you may be trying to get at on the backlog question is the durability of that backlog. And there's -- this is something that, obviously, we've been tracking very closely. What I'd say on order cancellations is they continue to run at a rate that is actually below where it was pre-pandemic. So we're not seeing any cancellations there. We continue to see very strong pipeline and pipeline build, which is something else that I think you would expect to see weaken if there was softening demand.

是的。我的意思是，由於積壓，所以有幾件事。我認為您在積壓問題上可能想要了解的是積壓的持久性。顯然，這是我們一直在密切關注的事情。關於訂單取消，我想說的是，訂單取消率實際上仍然低於疫情前的水平。因此我們沒有看到任何取消的情況。我們繼續看到非常強勁的管道和管道建設，我認為如果需求疲軟，你會看到它們減弱。

As we look at kind of further out with what's sitting in the backlog, we've also put in place a policy change that says those orders are noncancelable -- with all orders are noncancelable within 45 days of the committed ship date. That just went into place in the beginning of February. So orders that we've received since then within 45 days of shipment are noncancelable. And for our biggest customers, we've been working with them on a bespoke basis to put in place agreements where we'll guarantee supply, but they guarantee that those orders will not be rescheduled or canceled. So feel good about the durability of the backlog we've got.

當我們進一步研究積壓訂單的情況時，我們還實施了一項政策變化，規定這些訂單不可取消——所有訂單在承諾發貨日期後的 45 天內均不可取消。這項計劃剛在二月初實施。因此，自出貨日起 45 天內收到的訂單均不可取消。對於我們最大的客戶，我們一直與他們進行客製化合作，達成協議，我們保證供應，但他們保證這些訂單不會被重新安排或取消。因此，對於我們積壓的訂單的持久性，我們感到很滿意。

Tim Long with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的提姆朗。

Two, if I could, as well. First, Chuck, the gross margins we talked about was good. A lot of that was pricing. It seems like you guys are in a strong pricing position now. If you look out a few quarters, if and when things normalize, do you think pricing pressure remains? Or do you think that's something that will be a give back to the industry or to the customers? So is that sustainable from a margin standpoint?

如果可以的話，我也想說兩個。首先，查克，我們談到的毛利率很好。其中很大一部分是定價。看起來你們現在的定價地位很強。如果您觀察幾個季度，當情況恢復正常時，您認為定價壓力仍然存在嗎？還是您認為這會是對產業或客戶的回饋？那麼從利潤率的角度來看，這是可持續的嗎？

And second, I was hoping you could dig into software more. I heard a lot of the kind of unique onetime factors in there, but still even ex those, probably not great growth when you look at the software opportunities ahead of Cisco. Could you just give us the things to watch over the next few quarters that could start to reaccelerate growth in that software line?

其次，我希望你能更深入地研究軟體。我聽到了很多獨特的一次性因素，但即使排除這些因素，當你看到思科面臨的軟體機會時，可能也不會有很大的成長。您能否告訴我們未來幾季需要關注哪些因素，以重新加速該軟體系列的成長？

Yes. So Tim, on the first one -- thanks for the questions, by the way. On the first one, I think that as we see -- if we see reductions in our input costs over time, then we'll take into consideration whether we pass those through to the customers. The reality is we've taken on so many input cost increases that we haven't passed on to the customers that we'll look at it holistically at the time where that stuff begins to occur is what I would tell you.

是的。那麼提姆，關於第一個問題——順便說一下，謝謝你的提問。關於第一個問題，我認為，正如我們所看到的——如果我們看到投入成本隨著時間的推移而減少，那麼我們就會考慮是否將這些成本轉嫁給客戶。事實是，我們已經承擔了太多的投入成本增加，但我們並沒有將這些增加轉嫁給客戶，因此，當這些事情開始發生時，我們會全面地考慮這個問題，這就是我要告訴你的。

I'm glad you asked on the software growth because I think it's something that we want to explain. So it's a little difficult to understand completely, and we have a really interesting quarter because of the extra week a year ago and the Russia situation and the supply chain situation. So let me try to take you through what's going on in software. If you start with the fact that we have well over $2 billion of software and backlog that is connected to a piece of hardware that we will not begin recognizing the revenue until the hardware ships, so -- and that's up $1 billion year-over-year. So there's a large component of software that we're not recognizing right now that we would in normal times. So that's the first piece.

我很高興您詢問軟體成長問題，因為我認為這是我們想要解釋的事情。所以這有點難以完全理解，而且由於去年額外的一周以及俄羅斯的情況和供應鏈情況，我們有一個非常有趣的季度。那麼讓我嘗試帶您了解軟體中發生的事情。如果你先考慮到我們有超過 20 億美元的軟體和與硬體相關的積壓訂單，而我們要等到硬體出貨後才會開始確認收入，那麼 — — 這比去年同期增加了 10 億美元。因此，我們現在無法像平常一樣認識到軟體中很大一部分組件。這是第一部分。

And then if you take into consideration the extra week from a year ago, where we do ratable recognition of revenue on a daily basis, we had an extra week. And then you take the software that we wrote down -- software revenue that we wrote down as a result of ceasing operations in Russia, so those 3 -- the first one is hard to put a number on, but assume it's reasonable. The Russia and the extra quarter was a 5-point headwind to our software growth. So I know it's a little complicated, but I wanted to make sure you understood that. So I would expect this stuff to normalize back, particularly without the Russia and the extra-week impact. And then once supply chain starts to clear, then we'll start to see those normalized growth rates that we would expect. So hopefully, that wasn't too complicated.

如果你考慮到一年前額外的一周，我們每天都按比例確認收入，那麼我們就有額外的一周。然後你再看看我們減記的軟體——由於停止在俄羅斯的運營而減記的軟體收入，所以這三個——第一個很難給出一個數字，但假設它是合理的。俄羅斯和額外的季度對我們的軟體成長造成了 5 個百分點的阻力。我知道這有點複雜，但我想確保你理解這一點。因此，我希望這些事情能夠恢復正常，特別是在沒有俄羅斯和額外一周的影響的情況下。一旦供應鏈開始暢通，我們就會開始看到我們預期的正常成長率。所以希望不會太複雜。

No. Just curious, any other stand-alone software or 9K upgrades? Or what are the kind of things outside of the macro-related that could really help?

沒有。只是好奇，還有其他獨立軟體或 9K 升級嗎？或者除了宏觀層面以外，還有哪些事情能夠真正起到幫助作用？

Yes. The renewal stuff in '23 could be helpful. We're continuing to make progress on that across the portfolio. I mean we've got subscriptions running on switching, on routing, enterprise routing, on enterprise wireless. We've even built some subscriptions into our mass-scale infrastructure group. We've got subscriptions now in our data center networking group. So they'll sort of layering in over the next few years.

是的。 '23 年的更新內容可能會有所幫助。我們正在整個投資組合中繼續取得進展。我的意思是我們在交換、路由、企業路由、企業無線方面都有訂閱。我們甚至在我們的大規模基礎設施組中建立了一些訂閱。我們的資料中心網路組現在已有訂閱。因此，它們將在未來幾年內逐漸增加。

Amit Daryanani from Evercore.

Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Perfect. I've a lot of snuck in here. I guess I will beat the dead horse on China supply chain issues. And maybe if you could answer from the perspective of the $1 billion shortfall, and I know it's supply chain, not just China, if you have in July. A, what's your conviction that there's no share loss happening? Because your peers might be 1 month off, but they sounded much better. So you have conviction that others were not able to get the power analog products that you were not and they were able to get the demand. So a, could you just talk about conviction you are not having share loss. And then b, China has had no COVID cases in Shanghai for a few days now. So assuming they open up in June, does that imply that you could be perhaps at the higher end of your guide and things get better in Q1? Or just what are you embedding from a Shanghai recovery in your fiscal Q4 guide?

完美的。我在這裡偷偷潛入了很多東西。我想我會在中國供應鏈問題上繼續說廢話。也許您可以從 10 億美元缺口的角度來回答，我知道這是供應鏈問題，而不僅僅是中國問題，如果您在 7 月回答過的話。 A，您確信沒有發生股票損失嗎？因為你的同事可能相差一個月，但他們聽起來好得多。因此，您確信其他人無法獲得您無法獲得的功率模擬產品，並且他們能夠滿足需求。那麼，您能否談談您確信自己沒有遭受股票損失？然後 b，中國上海已經幾天沒有 COVID 病例了。那麼假設它們在六月開放，這是否意味著您的業績可能處於指導值的較高水平，並且第一季的情況會好轉？或者您只是將上海經濟復甦的哪些方面融入您的第四季財政指南中？

Okay. It's -- so first of all, I think market share is an incredibly difficult thing to assess right now because of the backlog situation, supply chain situation. And we have a complex portfolio. So if you -- are we losing share in somewhere -- I suspect there's somewhere that we are losing share. But in our core markets, I actually feel really good about how we're performing and the demand that we've seen in -- whether it's WiFi or switching or particularly in SP routing and in the web scale space and other areas. So I don't think there's a widespread problem of share, but I'm sure there are pockets that we -- our teams are working on improving. So that's the first piece.

好的。首先，我認為由於積壓情況和供應鏈情況，目前市佔率很難評估。我們的投資組合很複雜。因此，如果您 - 我們在某個地方失去了份額 - 我懷疑我們在某個地方失去了份額。但在我們的核心市場，我實際上對我們的表現以及我們所看到的需求感到非常滿意——無論是 WiFi 還是交換，或者特別是在 SP 路由和網路規模空間和其他領域。因此，我認為不存在普遍的共享問題，但我確信我們的團隊正在努力改進一些問題。這是第一部分。

Amit, on the China thing, let me -- what we've built into the guide is just a whole lot of uncertainty right now because we recognize that when they do open up, first of all, we don't know what that means. We don't know what open up means. Does it mean that they're going to slowly open grocery stores and salons and things of that nature and that the logistics side of it -- or do they open up their logistics on day 1? What does it mean about the capacity of resources they have for the logistics side? But our concern is that every company there is going to be trying to ship out. In some cases, many of the factories have been approved to keep working, and their workers have been working in dormitories. So they have components or ready-to-ship product that is sitting on the floor, and it's all going to race for the ports. It's all going to compete for the airports.

阿米特，關於中國的事情，讓我告訴你——我們在指南中已經考慮到了目前存在的許多不確定性，因為我們認識到，當他們真正開放時，首先，我們不知道這意味著什麼。我們不知道開放意味著什麼。這是否意味著他們將慢慢開設雜貨店、沙龍等類似場所以及物流方面——或者他們在第一天就開放物流？他們在物流方面擁有的資源能力又意味著什麼？但我們擔心的是，那裡的每家公司都會試圖撤離。在某些情況下，許多工廠已獲準繼續開工，工人則在宿舍工作。因此，他們有放在地板上的零件或準備發貨的產品，它們都將爭奪端口。所有航空公司都會爭奪機場。

And we know there's lower air traffic capacity right now for us to leverage. So we're concerned about how long it takes to clear that up, which is reflected in the guide. We also think that once it gets into their ports and it starts coming to the U.S., we have the risk of seeing what we saw in L.A. several months ago. So those are all just the unknowns about what does opening up look like and what's the time frame for recovery that led us to the cautious guide that we put out there.

我們知道，目前空中交通容量較低，我們無法利用這項優勢。因此，我們擔心解決這個問題需要多長時間，這在指南中有所體現。我們也認為，一旦毒品進入他們的港口並開始進入美國，我們就有可能再次遭遇幾個月前在洛杉磯發生的類似事件。因此，這些都是關於開放是什麼樣子以及復甦的時間框架是什麼的未知數，這導致我們發布了謹慎的指南。

And I would just remind you that it's not just Shanghai. I think as of the last article I read, there were like 45 cities that were in lockdown, and it was over 1/4 of the population of China. So it's broader. But that's how we're thinking about it, and we just have to wait and see how it unwinds.

我只是想提醒大家，這不只是上海的問題。我認為截至我讀到的上一篇文章，大約有 45 個城市處於封鎖狀態，佔中國人口的 1/4 以上。所以它的範圍更廣泛。但這就是我們的想法，我們只需要等待，看看事情會如何發展。

Thank you, Amit. Chuck, I'm going to turn it over to you for some closing remarks.

謝謝你，阿米特。查克，現在我將把發言權交給你，請你發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Marilyn. So first of all, I want to thank everybody for spending time with us and diving into this -- the complex situation that we face. It's clearly a dynamic and challenging environment. We clearly faced unanticipated events during Q3 with the COVID lockdowns and the war in Ukraine. We think the short-term challenges that we will manage through, our teams have been working really hard on these mitigation actions that we believe will begin to benefit us in the first half of our next fiscal year, which is good. We're successfully realizing price increases, which is good.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮。首先，我要感謝大家花時間與我們一起深入探討我們所面臨的複雜情況。這顯然是一個充滿活力和挑戰的環境。在第三季度，我們顯然面臨意想不到的事件，包括新冠疫情封鎖和烏克蘭戰爭。我們認為我們將克服這些短期挑戰，我們的團隊一直在努力採取這些緩解措施，我們相信這些措施將在下一個財政年度的上半年開始使我們受益，這是件好事。我們成功實現了價格上漲，這是好事。

And also in Q3, even though we had a miss on the top line, I just want to point out that it was a record EPS quarter for us as a company. And at the low point of our guidance for Q4, we will deliver record EPS for the full year. So while the top line is disappointing, we have navigated this complex year and actually will deliver solid EPS when we're done. The fundamentals are strong, a lot still in our favor, demand. Business transformation is working. The technology transitions and the number that we're participating in. We have great teams around the world, and that leads me to have a high degree of confidence despite the short-term challenges that we face. So thank you all for spending time with us, and we look forward to connecting with you next quarter.

此外，在第三季度，儘管我們的營業收入未達預期，但我只想指出，對於我們公司而言，這是一個創紀錄的每股盈餘季度。在第四季預期的最低點，我們將實現全年創紀錄的每股盈餘。因此，儘管營收令人失望，但我們已經度過了這個複雜的一年，並且在完成後將實現穩健的每股收益。基本面強勁，很多因素仍對我們有利，需求旺盛。業務轉型正在發揮作用。技術轉型和我們參與的數量。我們在世界各地擁有優秀的團隊，儘管我們面臨短期挑戰，但這讓我充滿信心。感謝大家與我們共度時光，我們期待下個季度與您聯繫。

Thanks, Chuck. And I'll just wrap it up by saying Cisco's next quarterly earnings conference call, which will reflect our fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 results, will be on Wednesday, August 17, 2022, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

謝謝，查克。最後，我想說的是，思科的下一次季度財報電話會議將於 2022 年 8 月 17 日星期三下午 1:30 舉行，該會議將反映我們第四財季和 2022 財年的業績。太平洋時間下午 4:30東部時間。

So this concludes today's call. But if you have any further questions, feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. And we thank you very much for joining us today.

今天的電話會議到此結束。但如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。非常感謝您今天的到來。

Thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (800) 388-4923. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369-3800. This concludes today's call. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想完整收聽電話會議，可以撥打（800）388-4923。對於從美國境外撥打電話的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369-3800。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。