思科 (CSCO) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2022 財年第三季度財務業績電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製中。如果您有任何異議，您可以斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora。女士，您可以開始了。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Third Quarter Fiscal 2022 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO. By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call. Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website.

歡迎大家參加思科 2022 財年第三季度季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora，我們的主席兼首席執行官 Chuck Robbins 也加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Scott Herren。到目前為止，您應該已經看到了我們的收益新聞稿。電話會議後，將在我們網站的投資者關係部分提供相應的帶有幻燈片的網絡廣播，包括補充信息。損益表、完整的 GAAP 到非 GAAP 對賬信息、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務信息也可以在我們的投資者關係網站的財務信息部分找到。

Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders unless stated otherwise. All comparisons made throughout this call will be done on a year-over-year basis. Please note, included in the materials that accompany this call is a slide which summarizes the impacts from the war in Ukraine and the extra week in Q3 fiscal 2021.

在本次電話會議中，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，除非另有說明，否則我們將討論收入方面的產品結果以及產品訂單方面的地理和客戶結果。在整個電話會議中進行的所有比較都將按年進行。請注意，本次電話會議隨附的材料中包含一張幻燈片，該幻燈片總結了烏克蘭戰爭和 2021 財年第三季度額外一周的影響。

The matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2022. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties, including COVID-19, that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2022 財年第四季度和全年提供的指導。它們受到我們詳細討論的風險和不確定性的影響，包括 COVID-19在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中，特別是最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格報告中，這些報告確定了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果大不相同的重要風險因素。關於指導，請參閱本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和新聞稿以獲取更多詳細信息。除非通過明確的公開披露，否則思科不會在本季度對其財務指導發表評論。

I will now turn it over to Chuck.

我現在把它交給查克。

Thanks, Marilyn, and good afternoon, everyone. When we spoke with you back in February, we entered Q3 in the second half of our fiscal year with optimism despite the supply and component challenges and other headwinds impacting us and many of our peers. Many of those factors that fuel that optimism remain unchanged today. We continue to see strong demand, resulting in record backlog. Our business transformation is progressing well, and our differentiated innovation across our portfolio is helping our customers embrace and adopt the multiple technology transitions happening.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮，大家下午好。當我們在 2 月份與您交談時，儘管供應和組件挑戰以及其他影響我們和我們許多同行的不利因素，我們仍然樂觀地進入了本財年下半年的第三季度。推動這種樂觀情緒的許多因素今天仍然沒有改變。我們繼續看到強勁的需求，導致創紀錄的積壓。我們的業務轉型進展順利，我們在產品組合中的差異化創新正在幫助我們的客戶接受並採用正在發生的多種技術轉型。

However, there were 2 unanticipated events since our last earnings call, which impacted our Q3 revenue performance. The first is the war in Ukraine. This resulted in us ceasing operations in Russia and Belarus and had a corresponding revenue impact, which Scott will discuss. The second relates to COVID-related lockdowns in China, which began in late March. These lockdowns resulted in an even more severe shortage of certain critical components. This, in turn, prevented us from shipping products to customers at the levels we originally anticipated heading into Q3.

然而，自上次財報電話會議以來發生了 2 起意外事件，影響了我們第三季度的收入表現。首先是烏克蘭戰爭。這導致我們停止了在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的業務，並產生了相應的收入影響，斯科特將對此進行討論。第二個與 3 月下旬開始的中國與 COVID 相關的封鎖有關。這些封鎖導致某些關鍵部件的短缺更加嚴重。這反過來又阻止了我們以我們最初預期進入第三季度的水平向客戶運送產品。

Our Q4 guidance incorporates a wider-than-usual range, taking into account the revenue impact of the war in Ukraine and the continuing uncertainty related to the China COVID lockdowns. Given this uncertainty, we are being practical about the current environment and erring on the side of caution in terms of our outlook, taking it 1 quarter at a time. We believe that our revenue performance in the upcoming quarters is less dependent on demand and more dependent on the supply availability in this increasingly complex environment.

考慮到烏克蘭戰爭對收入的影響以及與中國 COVID 封鎖相關的持續不確定性，我們的第四季度指導包含了比平常更廣的範圍。鑑於這種不確定性，我們對當前環境採取務實態度，並在我們的前景方面謹慎行事，一次只考慮一個季度。我們認為，我們在未來幾個季度的收入表現將更少依賴於需求，而更多地依賴於這個日益複雜的環境中的供應可用性。

While certain aspects of the current situation are largely out of our control, our teams have been working on several mitigation actions to help alleviate many of the component issues that we've been facing. We believe that we will begin to see the benefits of these actions in the first half of next fiscal year.

儘管當前情況的某些方面在很大程度上超出了我們的控制，但我們的團隊一直在努力採取一些緩解措施來幫助緩解我們一直面臨的許多組件問題。我們相信，我們將在下一財年上半年開始看到這些行動的好處。

Now let me talk more specifically about our third quarter performance. As I just mentioned, many of the positives we've discussed over the past few quarters remain, resulting in continued solid demand for our solutions. Total product orders grew 8% year-over-year, leading to yet another record backlog of well over $15 billion, up 10% sequentially and up 130% year-over-year. This momentum reaffirms the critical role we play in our customers' futures.

現在讓我更具體地談談我們第三季度的表現。正如我剛才提到的，我們在過去幾個季度中討論的許多積極因素仍然存在，導致對我們的解決方案的持續強勁需求。總產品訂單同比增長 8%，導致訂單積壓再創紀錄，超過 150 億美元，環比增長 10%，同比增長 130%。這種勢頭再次證明了我們在客戶未來中發揮的關鍵作用。

Our business transformation also progressed nicely. In Q3, we saw ARR growth of 11%, ending the quarter at over $22 billion and product ARR growth of 18%. We also exited the quarter with over $30 billion in remaining performance obligations or RPO. We also delivered non-GAAP EPS at the high end of our guidance range. This was driven by effective pricing actions and spending discipline, all of which allowed us to offset lower volumes and deliver both gross and operating margins above the high end of our guidance range and deliver on our bottom line profitability target for the quarter.

我們的業務轉型也進展順利。在第三季度，我們看到 ARR 增長了 11%，本季度結束時超過 220 億美元，產品 ARR 增長了 18%。我們還以超過 300 億美元的剩餘履約義務或 RPO 退出了本季度。我們還在指導範圍的高端提供了非公認會計原則每股收益。這是由有效的定價行動和支出紀律推動的，所有這些都使我們能夠抵消較低的銷量，並提供高於我們指導範圍高端的毛利率和營業利潤率，並實現我們本季度的盈利目標。

I want to reiterate what I said earlier. The fundamental drivers across our business are strong. While we are facing some short-term challenges, it does not change our long-term outlook, our alignment to our customers' most critical challenges or our belief in the tremendous opportunities in front of us.

我想重申我之前所說的。我們業務的基本驅動力很強。雖然我們面臨一些短期挑戰，但這不會改變我們的長期前景、我們與客戶最關鍵挑戰的一致性或我們對擺在我們面前的巨大機遇的信念。

Last week, we hosted our Global Customer Advisory Board meeting where we met with close to 100 customers. And they consistently shared that technology is at the heart of their strategy and has become even more important to everything they do. It's driving not just their strategies but also their overall business transformation. The technology they are adopting from Cisco is driving their business agility, allowing them to move with greater speed and empowering them to deliver differentiated experiences for their customers.

上週，我們舉辦了全球客戶諮詢委員會會議，會見了近 100 位客戶。他們一致表示，技術是他們戰略的核心，並且對他們所做的一切都變得更加重要。它不僅推動了他們的戰略，還推動了他們的整體業務轉型。他們從思科採用的技術正在推動他們的業務敏捷性，使他們能夠以更快的速度行動，並賦予他們為客戶提供差異化體驗的能力。

Now I'd like to touch on some highlights from the quarter. We continue to see strong demand in several areas of our business. Our web scale business remains strong as we continue to help these customers build their capabilities to connect and serve their customers and end users at scale from the data center to the edge. This is leading to continued strength in orders, which grew over 50%. And on a trailing 4-quarter basis, we had over 100% growth. This marks our ninth consecutive quarter of solid demand as we are winning new franchises, expanding our design wins and taking share in web scale. I remain incredibly proud of the progress we've made and the momentum we have in this space.

現在我想談談本季度的一些亮點。我們繼續看到我們業務的幾個領域的強勁需求。隨著我們繼續幫助這些客戶建立從數據中心到邊緣的大規模連接和服務客戶和最終用戶的能力，我們的網絡規模業務依然強勁。這導致訂單持續強勁，增長超過 50%。在過去的 4 個季度中，我們實現了超過 100% 的增長。這標誌著我們連續第九個季度保持穩定的需求，因為我們正在贏得新的特許經營權，擴大我們的設計勝利並在網絡規模上佔有一席之地。我仍然為我們取得的進展以及我們在這個領域所擁有的勢頭感到無比自豪。

We are also extremely pleased with the traction of our 400-gig solutions, including the Cisco 8000, which is the fastest-growing SP routing platform in Cisco's history. In addition, our Silicon One portfolio, ZR and ZR+ optics, and our Acacia portfolio of optical networking products, also continue to perform well.

我們也對我們的 400 gig 解決方案的吸引力感到非常滿意，其中包括 Cisco 8000，它是思科歷史上增長最快的 SP 路由平台。此外，我們的 Silicon One 產品組合、ZR 和 ZR+ 光學器件以及我們的 Acacia 光網絡產品組合也繼續表現良好。

From a product revenue perspective, our performance was led by solid demand across a majority of our portfolio, including switching, SP routing, wireless, security and SD-WAN. Our performance in these areas reflect the ongoing investments that our customers are making to rapidly digitize their organizations to deliver differentiated experiences.

從產品收入的角度來看，我們的業績主要得益於我們大部分產品組合的強勁需求，包括交換、SP 路由、無線、安全和 SD-WAN。我們在這些領域的表現反映了我們的客戶為快速將其組織數字化以提供差異化體驗而進行的持續投資。

Looking forward, the shift to hybrid cloud, 5G, 400 gig, IoT, hybrid work and the explosion of applications are driving the increased need for next-generation networking, connectivity, security and observability solutions. Cisco is well positioned to deliver for our customers with our end-to-end platforms and solutions.

展望未來，向混合雲、5G、400 gig、物聯網、混合工作和應用程序的爆炸式轉變正在推動對下一代網絡、連接性、安全性和可觀察性解決方案的需求增加。思科有能力通過我們的端到端平台和解決方案為我們的客戶提供服務。

I'm also very proud of our pace of innovation. During the quarter, Cisco announced new innovations across our networking and cloud portfolios, along with technologies to enhance experiences in hybrid work environments. We also introduced our new predictive networks to help organizations learn, predict and avoid network disruptions. We have even more innovation, which we'll announce at RSA and our own Cisco Live event in June.

我也為我們的創新步伐感到自豪。在本季度，思科在我們的網絡和雲產品組合中宣布了新的創新，以及增強混合工作環境體驗的技術。我們還推出了新的預測網絡，以幫助組織學習、預測和避免網絡中斷。我們還有更多創新，我們將在 RSA 和 6 月份的 Cisco Live 活動中宣布這些創新。

In addition to our deep passion for innovation, all of us at Cisco believe we have a unique opportunity to help make the world a better place through both the technology we build and the purpose we rally around to power an inclusive future for all. I believe this intersection of technology and purpose is why we were named the #1 Best Company to Work For in the U.S. by Fortune and Great Place to Work for the second year in a row.

除了我們對創新的熱情之外，我們在思科的所有人都相信，我們有一個獨特的機會，可以通過我們構建的技術和我們團結一致的宗旨來幫助讓世界變得更美好，為所有人創造一個包容的未來。我相信這種技術和目標的交匯是我們連續第二年被《財富》和 Great Place to Work 評為美國最佳工作公司的原因。

In summary, while the quarter clearly did not play out as expected, demand remains solid and the fundamentals of our business are strong. We remain focused on executing against the strategy we laid out at our Investor Day. We will also continue to be resolute in our focus to transform our business for more predictability and agility while bringing to market a robust pipeline of innovation. We remain confident in our long-term growth and the opportunities that we have in front of us.

總而言之，雖然該季度的表現明顯不如預期，但需求依然強勁，我們的業務基本面強勁。我們仍然專注於執行我們在投資者日制定的戰略。我們還將繼續堅定地專注於轉變我們的業務，以提高可預測性和敏捷性，同時將強大的創新渠道推向市場。我們對我們的長期增長和擺在我們面前的機會充滿信心。

I want to thank our teams around the world for all that they do, executing with dedication, focus and excellence in an incredibly dynamic environment. They continue to focus on our customers with unparalleled innovation, resiliency and determination.

我要感謝我們在世界各地的團隊所做的一切，他們在令人難以置信的動態環境中以奉獻、專注和卓越的態度執行。他們繼續以無與倫比的創新、彈性和決心專注於我們的客戶。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Scott.

有了這個，我現在把電話轉給斯科特。

Thanks, Chuck. We saw solid growth in product orders, net income and earnings per share despite the challenges Chuck just outlined. Product order growth was driven by strength across most of our portfolio, while disciplined spend and supply chain management drove our profitability.

謝謝，查克。儘管查克剛剛概述了挑戰，但我們看到了產品訂單、淨收入和每股收益的穩健增長。產品訂單增長是由我們大部分產品組合的實力推動的，而嚴格的支出和供應鏈管理推動了我們的盈利能力。

Total revenue was $12.8 billion, flat year-over-year. Our non-GAAP operating margin was 34.7%, up 110 basis points, coming in above the high end of our guidance range. Non-GAAP net income was $3.6 billion, up 3%. And non-GAAP earnings per share was $0.87, up 5%, coming in at the high end of our guidance range.

總收入為 128 億美元，與去年同期持平。我們的非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 34.7%，上升 110 個基點，高於我們指導範圍的高端。非美國通用會計準則淨收入為 36 億美元，增長 3%。非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.87 美元，增長 5%，處於我們指導範圍的高端。

In March, we stopped business operations in both Russia and Belarus, which had a negative impact to revenue of approximately $200 million or 2 percentage points of growth. Historically, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine collectively have represented approximately 1% of our total revenue. The impact this quarter was a bit higher than our historical run rate due to additional charges to revenue we recorded for uncollectible receivables and other items.

3 月份，我們停止了在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的業務運營，這對收入產生了約 2 億美元或 2 個百分點的增長的負面影響。從歷史上看，俄羅斯、白俄羅斯和烏克蘭合計占我們總收入的約 1%。由於我們為無法收回的應收賬款和其他項目記錄的額外收入費用，本季度的影響略高於我們的歷史運行率。

And as a reminder, Q3 of last year included an extra week, which was a benefit to total revenue in Q3 of '21 of approximately 3 full percentage points of growth. On a combined basis, the impact of the year-over-year total revenue growth rate for the extra week and the war in Ukraine was approximately 5 percentage points.

提醒一下，去年第三季度包括額外的一周，這對 21 年第三季度的總收入有利，大約增長了 3 個百分點。綜合來看，額外一周的總收入同比增長率和烏克蘭戰爭的影響約為 5 個百分點。

Looking at our Q3 revenue in more detail. Total product revenue was $9.4 billion, up 3%. Service revenue was $3.4 billion, down 8%, driven by the extra week in the prior year and the war in Ukraine, which combined impacted our growth by approximately 8 percentage points.

更詳細地查看我們的第三季度收入。產品總收入為 94 億美元，增長 3%。服務收入為 34 億美元，下降 8%，原因是上一年的額外一周和烏克蘭戰爭共同影響了我們的增長約 8 個百分點。

Within product revenue, secure agile networks was solid with revenues up 4%. Switching grew driven by strength in data center switching with our Nexus 9000 products. Campus switching growth was led by our Catalyst 9000 and Meraki switching offerings. Wireless had a double-digit increase, driven by broad-based strength across our portfolio, including our WiFi 6 products and Meraki wireless offerings.

在產品收入中，安全敏捷網絡表現穩健，收入增長 4%。借助我們的 Nexus 9000 產品，數據中心交換的實力推動了交換的增長。園區交換增長由我們的 Catalyst 9000 和 Meraki 交換產品引領。無線業務實現了兩位數的增長，這得益於我們產品組合的廣泛實力，包括我們的 WiFi 6 產品和 Meraki 無線產品。

We also had solid growth in servers. Enterprise routing declined primarily driven by edge and access, slightly offset by strength in SD-WAN. Internet for the Future was up 6%, driven by strength in Acacia, optical, optics and core networking products, including double-digit growth in the Cisco 8000. Collaboration was down 7%, driven by declines in our meetings, calling and contact center offerings, partially offset by the continued ramp of our Communication Platform as a Service. End-to-end security grew 7% with broad strength across most of the portfolio. Our Zero Trust portfolio performed well with double-digit growth driven by strong performance in our Duo offering. Optimized application experiences was up 8%, driven by double-digit growth in both of our SaaS-based offerings, ThousandEyes and Intersight.

我們在服務器方面也有穩健增長。企業路由下降的主要原因是邊緣和訪問，但被 SD-WAN 的實力略微抵消。未來互聯網增長 6%，這得益於 Acacia、光學、光學和核心網絡產品的實力，包括 Cisco 8000 的兩位數增長。協作下降了 7%，原因是我們的會議、呼叫和聯絡中心下降產品，部分被我們的通信平台即服務的持續增長所抵消。端到端安全性增長 7%，在大多數投資組合中表現出廣泛的實力。我們的零信任投資組合表現良好，在 Duo 產品的強勁表現推動下實現了兩位數的增長。受我們基於 SaaS 的產品 ThousandEyes 和 Intersight 兩位數增長的推動，優化的應用程序體驗增長了 8%。

We continue to make progress on our transformation metrics as we shift our business to more subscriptions and software. Total software revenue was $3.7 billion, a decrease of 3%, with the product portion down 1%. Total software revenue growth would have been 5 points higher excluding the combined negative impact of the extra week in the prior year and the war in Ukraine. 83% of software revenue was subscription-based, which is up 1 percentage point year-on-year.

隨著我們將業務轉向更多訂閱和軟件，我們將繼續在轉型指標上取得進展。軟件總收入為 37 億美元，下降 3%，其中產品部分下降 1%。排除上一年額外一周和烏克蘭戰爭的綜合負面影響，軟件總收入增長將高出 5 個百分點。 83% 的軟件收入來自訂閱，同比增長 1 個百分點。

Total subscription revenue was $5.5 billion, a decrease of 4%. Total subscription revenue would have been 7 points higher, excluding the combined negative impact of the extra week in the prior year and the war in Ukraine. Total subscription revenue represented 43% of Cisco's total revenue. Annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, was $22.4 billion, an increase of 11%, with strong product ARR growth of 18%. And remaining performance obligations, or RPO, was $30.2 billion, up 7%. Product RPO increased 13%. Service RPO increased 3%, and the total short-term RPO grew 9% to $16.2 billion. We had solid product order growth in Q3 of 8% with strength across most of the business.

訂閱總收入為 55 億美元，下降 4%。總訂閱收入將增加 7 個百分點，不包括上一年額外一周和烏克蘭戰爭的綜合負面影響。訂閱總收入佔思科總收入的 43%。年化經常性收入或 ARR 為 224 億美元，增長 11%，其中產品 ARR 強勁增長 18%。剩餘履約義務或 RPO 為 302 億美元，增長 7%。產品 RPO 增加了 13%。服務 RPO 增長 3%，短期 RPO 總額增長 9% 至 162 億美元。我們在第三季度實現了 8% 的穩健產品訂單增長，大部分業務都表現強勁。

Looking at our geographic segments. The Americas was up 9%; EMEA, up 4%; and APJC, up 11%. In our customer markets, commercial was up 19%, service provider was up 8%, public sector was up 4% and enterprise was flat. From a non-GAAP perspective, total gross margin came in above the high end of our guidance range at 65.3%, down 70 basis points year-over-year. Product gross margin was 64.1%, down 80 basis points. And service gross margin was 68.9%, up 20 basis points. The decrease in product gross margin was primarily driven by ongoing higher component costs related to supply constraints as well as higher freight and logistics costs, partially offset by strong positive pricing impact.

查看我們的地理區域。美洲上漲 9%；歐洲、中東和非洲，增長 4%；和 APJC，上漲 11%。在我們的客戶市場中，商業增長了 19%，服務提供商增長了 8%，公共部門增長了 4%，而企業則持平。從非公認會計原則的角度來看，總毛利率高於我們指導範圍的高端，為 65.3%，同比下降 70 個基點。產品毛利率為64.1%，下降80個基點。服務毛利率為68.9%，上升20個基點。產品毛利率的下降主要是由於與供應限制相關的持續較高的組件成本以及較高的貨運和物流成本，部分被強大的積極定價影響所抵消。

We continue to manage through the supply constraints seen industry-wide by us and our peers. To give a sense of scale of the shortages, we currently see constraints in Q4 on roughly 350 critical components out of a total of 41,000 unique component part numbers. Our supply chain team is aggressively pursuing multiple options to close those shortages.

我們將繼續應對我們和同行看到的全行業供應限制。為了了解短缺的規模，我們目前看到第四季度在總共 41,000 個唯一組件編號中的大約 350 個關鍵組件受到限制。我們的供應鏈團隊正在積極尋求多種選擇來彌補這些短缺。

Given our solid product orders, we once again saw a significant increase in our backlog levels for both hardware and software well beyond our normal historical levels. As Chuck said, our ending product backlog grew to well over $15 billion and software backlog grew to more than $2 billion, both up 10% sequentially. And just a reminder, backlog is not included as part of our $30.2 billion in remaining performance obligations.

鑑於我們穩定的產品訂單，我們再次看到硬件和軟件的積壓水平顯著增加，遠遠超過我們正常的歷史水平。正如 Chuck 所說，我們的最終產品積壓增長到超過 150 億美元，軟件積壓增長到超過 20 億美元，環比增長 10%。提醒一下，積壓不包括在我們 302 億美元的剩餘履約義務中。

We ended Q3 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $20.1 billion. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $3.7 billion, down 6% year-over-year, primarily driven by advanced payments to secure future supply. These advanced payments had a negative 9 percentage point year-on-year impact on Q3 operating cash flow.

我們在第三季度結束時的現金、現金等價物和投資總額為 201 億美元。本季度的經營現金流為 37 億美元，同比下降 6%，主要受為確保未來供應的預付款推動。這些預付款對第三季度的經營現金流產生了同比負 9 個百分點的影響。

In terms of capital allocation, we returned $1.8 billion to shareholders during the quarter that was comprised of $1.6 billion for our quarterly cash dividend and approximately $250 million of share repurchases. Year-to-date, we have returned a total of approximately $10 billion in value to our shareholders via cash dividends and stock repurchases and have more than $17 billion available under our Board stock repurchase authorization.

在資本分配方面，我們在本季度向股東返還了 18 億美元，其中包括 16 億美元的季度現金股息和約 2.5 億美元的股票回購。年初至今，我們通過現金股息和股票回購向股東返還了總計約 100 億美元的價值，並且在我們的董事會股票回購授權下可使用超過 170 億美元。

To summarize, we're navigating the highly complex environment while continuing to make progress on our business model shift and making strategic investments in innovation to capitalize on our significant growth opportunities and expanding addressable markets.

總而言之，我們正在應對高度複雜的環境，同時繼續在業務模式轉變方面取得進展，並對創新進行戰略投資，以利用我們的重大增長機會和擴大潛在市場。

Now let me provide our financial guidance for Q4. In terms of supply, we expect the challenges we experienced in Q3 to continue into Q4. For next quarter, we expect revenue growth to be in the range of minus 1% to minus 5.5%. We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 64% to 65%. Our non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 31.5% to 33.5%, and non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $0.76 to $0.84.

現在讓我提供我們對第四季度的財務指導。在供應方面，我們預計我們在第三季度遇到的挑戰將持續到第四季度。對於下一季度，我們預計收入增長將在負 1% 至負 5.5% 的範圍內。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率將在 64% 至 65% 之間。我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率預計在 31.5% 至 33.5% 之間，非 GAAP 每股收益預計在 0.76 美元至 0.84 美元之間。

For the full year of fiscal '22, guidance is as follows. We expect revenue growth to be in the range of 2% to 3% year-on-year. Non-GAAP earnings per share guidance is expected to range from $3.29 to $3.37, up 2% to 5% year-on-year. In both our Q4 and full year guidance, we're assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 19%.

對於 '22 財年的全年，指導如下。我們預計收入同比增長將在 2% 至 3% 之間。非 GAAP 每股收益指引預計在 3.29 美元至 3.37 美元之間，同比增長 2% 至 5%。在我們的第四季度和全年指導中，我們假設非 GAAP 有效稅率為 19%。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

我現在把它轉回給瑪麗蓮，這樣我們就可以進入問答環節了。

Thanks, Scott. Michelle, let's go ahead and queue up the Q&A.

謝謝，斯科特。米歇爾，讓我們繼續排隊問答吧。

Meta Marshall from Morgan Stanley Investment Research.

摩根士丹利投資研究公司的 Meta Marshall。

Maybe Chuck, if you could just kind of give a sense in what you're seeing in macro from your customers. I know that the enterprise orders were flat year-over-year. Just are you seeing any change in their behavior, either just given what's happening in overall macro conditions or just currency and inflation would be helpful.

也許查克，如果你能對你從客戶那裡看到的宏觀情況有所了解的話。我知道企業訂單同比持平。您是否看到他們的行為有任何變化，無論是考慮到整體宏觀條件的情況，還是僅僅考慮貨幣和通貨膨脹都會有所幫助。

Yes. Meta, thank you. So I -- on the demand issue, I'd point out a few things. Number one, without the 2 percentage points of orders that we debooked relative to Russia and Belarus, we grew 10% against a year ago growth of 10%. So we feel good about that. Our customers are not signaling any real shift at this point. We're not hearing that from them. Again, we had our Global Customer Advisory Board just a couple of weeks ago where we had 100 of our biggest customers, and they were all talking about projects and the strategic nature of everything they're trying to accomplish.

是的。梅塔，謝謝。所以我——關於需求問題，我會指出一些事情。第一，相對於俄羅斯和白俄羅斯，沒有 2 個百分點的訂單減少，我們增長了 10%，而一年前增長了 10%。所以我們對此感覺很好。目前，我們的客戶並未發出任何真正轉變的信號。我們沒有從他們那裡聽到。再一次，就在幾週前，我們有我們的全球客戶諮詢委員會，我們有 100 位最大的客戶，他們都在談論項目和他們試圖完成的每件事的戰略性質。

The last thing I would point out is on the enterprise side, last quarter, we grew 37%. Just to keep in mind, the way we define enterprise is a finite list of named customers. So it tends to be more lumpy. If I look at how the industry defines enterprise, that would reflect a combination of our enterprise and our commercial business. So for comparisons to what we're hearing in the marketplace, I thought we would give you that combined number. If you combine enterprise and commercial together, we grew 9%. But without the Russia impact, we actually grew 12%. And on a trailing 12-month basis, it grew 28%. So we're still comfortable with the demand signals that we're seeing, and our customers aren't telling us anything differently right now.

我要指出的最後一件事是在企業方面，上個季度，我們增長了 37%。請記住，我們定義企業的方式是命名客戶的有限列表。所以它往往更塊狀。如果我看一下行業如何定義企業，那將反映我們的企業和我們的商業業務的結合。因此，為了與我們在市場上聽到的內容進行比較，我想我們會給你這個組合數字。如果將企業和商業結合起來，我們增長了 9%。但如果沒有俄羅斯的影響，我們實際上增長了 12%。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，它增長了 28%。因此，我們仍然對我們看到的需求信號感到滿意，而且我們的客戶現在並沒有告訴我們任何不同的事情。

Samik Chatterjee from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess, Chuck, on the demand question again, just you're guiding to the fiscal fourth quarter to be now almost sort of similar to what the third quarter is or even down a bit, which is, if I go back historically, has never really -- I don't see many instances of that. I mean is that really a reflection of the supply environment? Or are there any other sort of aspects of demand stemming from the geopolitical sort of situation here that's impacting that? And when do we sort of start to see you sort of cycle past some of that?

我想，查克，再次談到需求問題，你只是在指導第四財季現在幾乎與第三季度相似，甚至有點下降，也就是說，如果我回顧歷史，已經從來沒有——我沒有看到很多這樣的例子。我的意思是這真的反映了供應環境嗎？或者，這裡的地緣政治局勢是否會影響需求的其他方面？我們什麼時候開始看到你經歷了一些循環？

Yes. Samik, it's a great question. So let me start with just the basic answer is there is no reflection of demand issue in our Q4 guide. That has nothing to do with the Q4 guide. Let me try to describe how we got to that. I think it's important for everybody to understand.

是的。 Samik，這是一個很好的問題。因此，讓我從基本答案開始，即我們的第四季度指南中沒有反映需求問題。這與第四季度指南無關。讓我試著描述一下我們是如何做到這一點的。我認為讓每個人都明白這一點很重要。

When we look at our Q3 results, we had -- from a revenue perspective, we had a $200 million impact from us ceasing operations in Russia and corresponding revenue write-downs that occurred. Those were onetime. We then had -- if you recall, our quarter ends at the end of April. Most of what you've heard from others, their quarters end at the end of March. So we experienced an entire quarter of the China lockdowns. And in Shanghai, it was from March 27 until today. Shenzhen shut down, but again, it opened up a week later. So we're talking really about the Shanghai situation.

當我們查看第三季度的業績時，從收入的角度來看，我們停止在俄羅斯的業務以及相應的收入減記對我們產生了 2 億美元的影響。那些是曾經的。然後我們有 - 如果你還記得的話，我們的季度在四月底結束。你從其他人那裡聽到的大部分內容，他們的季度在三月底結束。因此，我們經歷了整整四分之一的中國封鎖。而在上海，則是從3月27日到今天。深圳關閉，但一周後又重新開放。所以我們真的在談論上海的情況。

So we had $200 million from Russia, and then we had $300 million that was completely attributed to our inability to get power supplies out of China. That's the simplicity of what caused the problem. As an example, we had 11,000 PCB assemblies built we couldn't get power supplies for because of the lockdown. That's a simple fact of what happened in Q3.

因此，我們從俄羅斯獲得了 2 億美元，然後我們獲得了 3 億美元，這完全歸因於我們無法從中國獲得電力供應。這就是導致問題的原因的簡單性。例如，我們製造了 11,000 個 PCB 組件，由於封鎖，我們無法獲得電源。這是第三季度發生的事情的一個簡單事實。

When we look at Q4 and you think about the Shanghai lockdown and what we've heard, because in Shanghai, there are lots of components that go into our power supply. So we're not able to get those components. Shanghai now is saying they're going to open up June 1. We don't know exactly what that means and what that means to when that implies that we would start getting any supply out.

當我們查看第四季度時，您會想到上海的封鎖以及我們所聽到的，因為在上海，我們的電源中有很多組件。所以我們無法獲得這些組件。上海現在說他們將於 6 月 1 日重新開放。我們不知道這意味著什麼，以及這意味著我們將開始提供任何供應。

And correspondingly, we believe when they open up and when they do allow transportation and logistics to start up, we believe there's going to be a high degree of congestion. We believe that there's going to be lots of competition for ports capacity, airport capacity. And we just believe that, that, combined with the inbound efforts, trying to get raw materials back into the country, et cetera, we just believe that it's going to be impossible for us to catch up on this issue in Q4, which is what led to the guidance in Q4.

相應地，我們相信當它們開放並且它們確實允許運輸和物流啟動時，我們相信將會有高度的擁堵。我們相信，港口容量和機場容量將會有很多競爭。而且我們只是相信，再加上入境努力，試圖將原材料運回該國等等，我們只是相信我們不可能在第四季度趕上這個問題，這就是導致第四季度的指導。

So even though these top line numbers don't look good is a very simple explanation as to what occurred. So then the follow-on part of your question is, when do we think this gets better? Well, if we make the assumption that China does begin to open up and we do begin to get more natural flow of the power supplies. We also have had our teams over the last 6 to 9 months have been working on a lot of mitigating actions, redesigning 100 products -- over 100 products to give us component diversity. We believe that a combination of those starting in our Q1 and in the first half of our year, we'll start to see the benefit of that. So that's when we expect to see it improve to some extent. We need to get through the next 90 days, but I'm just being as transparent as I can about what we see and when we think some of that improvement will occur.

因此，即使這些頂行數字看起來不太好，也可以非常簡單地解釋發生了什麼。那麼你的問題的後續部分是，我們認為什麼時候會好轉？好吧，如果我們假設中國確實開始開放並且我們確實開始獲得更自然的電力供應。在過去的 6 到 9 個月裡，我們的團隊也一直在努力採取許多緩解措施，重新設計 100 種產品——超過 100 種產品，為我們提供組件多樣性。我們相信，從第一季度和今年上半年開始，我們將開始看到這樣做的好處。所以那時我們希望看到它在某種程度上有所改善。我們需要度過接下來的 90 天，但我只是盡可能透明地說明我們所看到的以及我們認為何時會出現一些改進。

Ittai Kidron from Oppenheimer.

來自奧本海默的Ittai Kidron。

I guess I want to dig into that a little bit, Chuck, on the supply chain. You seem to be much more impacted than some of your peers in the industry. So I'm just trying to gauge whether you have an unusually high exposure to China that others do not. Is there any color you can give us on what percentage of your components come from China? And why is it that you stand out relative to a couple of others? And I understand that you had an April quarter and some of them had March, but they did report mid/late April and none of them have signaled anything. And so clearly, they've seen what's happening in April, and they haven't said anything.

Chuck，我想我想深入研究一下供應鏈。你似乎比業內的一些同行受到的影響更大。所以我只是想判斷你是否對中國有異常高的接觸，而其他人沒有。有什麼顏色可以告訴我們你們的組件有多少來自中國？為什麼你相對於其他幾個人來說脫穎而出？我知道你有一個 4 月的季度，其中一些有 3 月，但他們確實報告了 4 月中/下旬，但他們都沒有發出任何信號。很明顯，他們已經看到了四月份發生的事情，但他們什麼也沒說。

And then I guess as a second part of this, just thinking kind of longer term, just given the challenges geopolitically, Ukraine, Russia and the risks that are associated with China on a geopolitical standpoint, but also clearly in their COVID policy, is there any some sort of a long-term planning that disconnects you from China as a source for components longer term?

然後我想作為第二部分，考慮到地緣政治挑戰、烏克蘭、俄羅斯以及從地緣政治角度來看與中國相關的風險，以及在他們的 COVID 政策中明確的風險，只是考慮更長遠的問題，是否存在是否有某種長期計劃使您與中國作為長期零部件來源地脫節？

Yes. Ittai, thank you. Both good questions. I think on the first one, I think that the biggest differentiation was April. I have spoken to peers who are feeling the same thing we are. But we're reporting the full month of impact, and it was an April issue for us. So now on a normalized basis for that question across the portfolio, all of us design products with different components in. So there's opportunity for us to have a unique issue with one component that we may have designed into a product and -- or we may have a unique advantage because we designed a certain component into a product. And those are the areas where I talked about we're redesigning where we have unique problems or just problems in general. Others may have the same problems.

是的。伊泰，謝謝。兩個好問題。我認為在第一個上，我認為最大的差異是四月。我曾與與我們有同樣感受的同行交談過。但我們正在報告整個月的影響，這對我們來說是 4 月的問題。因此，現在在整個產品組合中針對該問題的標準化基礎上，我們所有人都設計了具有不同組件的產品。因此，我們有機會對我們可能設計到產品中的一個組件有一個獨特的問題 - 或者我們可能具有獨特的優勢，因為我們將某個組件設計到產品中。這些是我談到我們正在重新設計的領域，我們有獨特的問題或一般的問題。其他人可能有同樣的問題。

So we think that the exposure in general was because of the month of April. Also, we do massive volumes. And in general, you would think that's a huge advantage. But just to put it in perspective, we shipped more revenue in the last week of our quarter than many of our competitors that you're referencing, shipped in their entire quarter. So it's just an issue that it shows up in a bigger number for us than it would. If they have the same problem, it might be a $20 million impact for us. It might be a $200 million, $400 million impact. So that's the first one.

因此，我們認為總體上的曝光是因為 4 月份。此外，我們做大量的工作。總的來說，你會認為這是一個巨大的優勢。但為了正確看待，我們在本季度最後一周的收入超過了您所引用的許多競爭對手在整個季度的發貨量。所以這只是一個問題，它對我們來說比它出現的數量更多。如果他們有同樣的問題，對我們來說可能會產生 2000 萬美元的影響。這可能是 2 億、4 億美元的影響。所以這是第一個。

The second one, what I would say is that we are constantly evaluating our global supply chain. And so it's not about one country. It's about resilience. And the way we've designed supply chains over the last 15, 20 years as an industry, I think we all realize we're evolving that now at the same time that we're triaging all of the current issues that we have. So our teams have a dual challenge. But we are constantly driving geographic resilience. The example I would give is that we -- before COVID, we had regional redundancy built in. We did not have a plan for a country to shut down. And so it takes time to go out and create that geographic resilience, but our teams are working on all of those kinds of things right now. So they will continue to do that, Ittai.

第二個，我想說的是，我們一直在評估我們的全球供應鏈。因此，這與一個國家無關。這是關於彈性的。我們在過去 15 年、20 年作為一個行業設計供應鏈的方式，我認為我們都意識到我們現在正在發展，同時我們正在對我們當前面臨的所有問題進行分類。所以我們的團隊面臨著雙重挑戰。但我們一直在推動地理彈性。我要舉的例子是，在 COVID 之前，我們已經建立了區域冗餘。我們沒有計劃讓一個國家關閉。因此，走出去創造這種地理彈性需要時間，但我們的團隊現在正在處理所有這些事情。所以他們會繼續這樣做，Ittai。

Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

西蒙·利奧波德與雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hopefully, I'll make sense here, but I want to give this a shot. Your gross margin looked relatively resilient in the quarter in the outlook, and your revenue was light. We've seen the opposite from some of your peers. And I'm wondering if part of the issue is the usage of brokers in paying very high fees for parts in the, I guess, secondary or tertiary markets. Is that something you didn't do and that prevented you from reaching revenue but allowed you to have a better gross margin? I'm just trying to understand some of your practices relative to your peers that allowed you to have a good gross margin but the lighter sales. Does that all make sense?

希望我在這裡能說得通，但我想試一試。展望本季度，您的毛利率看起來相對有彈性，而且您的收入很輕。我們從您的一些同行中看到了相反的情況。而且我想知道問題的一部分是否是使用經紀人為二級或三級市場的零件支付非常高的費用。那是你沒有做的事情，阻止了你實現收入，但讓你有更好的毛利率？我只是想了解您相對於同行的一些做法，這些做法使您擁有良好的毛利率，但銷售額較低。這一切有意義嗎？

It absolutely does, Simon. Let me start and then I'm going to kick it to Scott to talk a little bit about it. So first and foremost, we are incredibly active purchasers in the broker market. And you can imagine with our buying power, they call us first. And so no, that has nothing to do with it. In fact, we've spent a lot of time with our supply chain team who are giving us examples of where they've bought product in the broker market recently. So I don't think that's it, but Scott can explain what did happen there.

確實如此，西蒙。讓我開始吧，然後我將把它踢給 Scott 談談它。因此，首先，我們是經紀市場上非常活躍的買家。你可以想像我們的購買力，他們首先給我們打電話。所以不，這與它無關。事實上，我們花了很多時間與我們的供應鏈團隊合作，他們向我們提供了他們最近在經紀市場購買產品的例子。所以我不認為是這樣，但斯科特可以解釋那裡發生了什麼。

Yes. It's a great question, Simon. What I'd add is, if you recall, we did 2 price increases this year. The first one rolled in right about the end of the calendar year and the second one at the beginning of our second quarter. And we said at the time that we thought -- you continue to ask, like, "Hey, when are those price increases? When are they going to show up in the top line?" And we said we thought we would begin to see the benefit of those toward the end of the third quarter, which is the quarter we just closed. And that's exactly what happened.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，西蒙。我要補充的是，如果你還記得的話，我們今年做了兩次價格上漲。第一個在日曆年末左右推出，第二個在我們第二季度開始時推出。我們當時說，我們認為——你繼續問，比如，“嘿，這些價格甚麼時候上漲？它們什麼時候會出現在收入榜上？”我們說我們認為我們會在第三季度末開始看到這些好處，也就是我們剛剛結束的那個季度。這正是發生的事情。

So while the unit shipments in the quarter were off because of the issues that we've talked about with the supply chain, with the component supply, the -- we were able to offset that with pretty strong pricing. In fact -- and this -- we published this in our Q, so you'll see it there. But our pricing was up about 160 basis points in Q3. So while we did have a unit impact from the component supply, it was offset by some of the things that we're doing in the -- we're beginning to realize on the price front.

因此，雖然由於我們在供應鍊和組件供應方面討論過的問題，本季度的單位出貨量有所下降，但我們能夠通過相當強勁的定價來抵消這一點。事實上——還有這個——我們在我們的 Q 中發布了這個，所以你會在那裡看到它。但我們的定價在第三季度上漲了約 160 個基點。因此，雖然我們確實對組件供應產生了單位影響，但它被我們正在做的一些事情所抵消——我們開始在價格方面意識到這一點。

We are actively pursuing every avenue. It's got to be a qualified vendor. And so we're working to qualify different sources at the same time. But we are actively pursuing that, whether it's through a broker, obviously, directly from the vendor but through a broker distributor. We're pursuing all those channels, and that is creating a bit of a headwind to us.

我們正在積極地追求每一個途徑。它必須是一個合格的供應商。因此，我們正在努力同時對不同的來源進行鑑定。但我們正在積極追求這一點，無論是通過經紀人，顯然，直接來自供應商，但通過經紀人分銷商。我們正在追求所有這些渠道，這給我們帶來了一些阻力。

Sami Badri from Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的薩米·巴德里。

First one is a clarification on the product order growth number that was reported of 8%. Could you give us an idea on how much price increases contributed to the product order growth number? That's the first question. And then just a second question is we're just trying to piece together and explain, even after accounting for the Russia, Ukraine contribution, why enterprise would grow 0% versus some of your peers that are reporting far greater reports and trends, and specifically enterprise. Could you just try to maybe triangulate a little bit more about what's going on there?

第一個是對報告的 8% 的產品訂單增長數的澄清。你能告訴我們價格上漲對產品訂單增長的貢獻有多大嗎？這是第一個問題。然後第二個問題是我們只是試圖拼湊並解釋，即使在考慮了俄羅斯、烏克蘭的貢獻之後，為什麼企業會增長 0%，而你的一些同行報告的報告和趨勢要大得多，特別是企業。你能不能試著對那裡發生的事情進行更多的三角測量？

Okay. First, I'll let Scott add on the price increase in a moment. But first of all, the price increase really did not have significant impact on our growth. We only pass through pricing at the time that was offsetting our incremental cost. And to be honest, we've incurred more costs since then. So we're at a place right now where we have not even passed through all the costs that we have incurred. We're getting price increases all the time now. So that's the first answer.

好的。首先，我讓斯科特稍後再補充價格上漲。但首先，價格上漲確實對我們的增長沒有顯著影響。我們只在抵消我們的增量成本時才通過定價。老實說，從那以後我們已經付出了更多的成本。因此，我們現在處於一個甚至還沒有承擔我們所產生的所有成本的地方。我們現在一直在漲價。所以這是第一個答案。

On the second one, the easiest thing for me to tell you is what I said earlier, that the way our peers view and report in the industry views and reports enterprise would be the combination of our enterprise and commercial business, which last quarter would have grown 9% and would have grown 12% without -- or it grew 9% but would have been 12% without Russia. So if you think about the size of that -- those 2 businesses combined growing 9%, I'm pretty comfortable with that, that the demand is still there. And if you look at our commercial business, which usually is the leading indicator of a shift of demand momentum, they grew 19% in the quarter. So I'm not concerned.

關於第二個，我最容易告訴你的就是我之前說過的，我們的同行在行業視圖和報告企業中的觀察和報告方式將是我們的企業和商業業務的結合，上個季度會有增長 9%，如果沒有俄羅斯，增長 12%——或者增長 9%，但如果沒有俄羅斯，增長 12%。因此，如果您考慮其規模——這兩家企業加起來增長了 9%，我對此感到非常滿意，需求仍然存在。如果你看看我們的商業業務，這通常是需求勢頭轉變的領先指標，他們在本季度增長了 19%。所以我不擔心。

Yes. And Sami, to the first part of your question, the 160 basis point impact that we saw in Q3 from pricing is a revenue statement. Obviously, to go from bookings to revenue, it first has to flow through the backlog and then get realized. So the impact on bookings, while we haven't quantified it, would be a little bit higher than that 160 basis points.

是的。薩米，對於你問題的第一部分，我們在第三季度從定價中看到的 160 個基點影響是收入報表。顯然，從預訂到收入，它首先必須通過積壓，然後才能實現。因此，雖然我們沒有量化它對預訂的影響，但會比這 160 個基點高一點。

Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

羅德霍爾與高盛。

I guess I want to come back because I think the main investor question coming out of this will be these product orders, Chuck. And I know you're saying that combined that they -- I heard all the things that you said there. I think that if you look at the sequential movement on those, it's quite a bit below normal seasonality. Even if you give the 10% growth on a year-over-year basis on the product orders, you're still down mid-single digits sequentially and that's way below normal seasonality. But we know that we're coming off historical highs on these product orders.

我想我想回來，因為我認為由此產生的主要投資者問題將是這些產品訂單，查克。我知道你說的是他們的結合——我聽到了你在那裡所說的所有事情。我認為，如果你看一下這些的連續變化，就會發現它遠低於正常的季節性。即使您在產品訂單上給出了 10% 的同比增長，您仍然在連續下降中個位數，這遠低於正常的季節性。但我們知道，這些產品訂單正在脫離歷史高位。

So I guess what I'm wondering is if you can give us any idea on trajectory on product doors as we head into next quarter. Because I could see a scenario where product orders decline to kind of 2019 July levels, in which case you'd be down double digits, but you'd still be in good product order territory, if that makes any sense. So hoping maybe you could just give us a little bit more color on what you think that trajectory looks like and how those orders are normalizing over time. And then maybe I have a follow-up. I mean that's kind of a long question.

所以我想我想知道的是，當我們進入下個季度時，您是否可以給我們關於產品門軌蹟的任何想法。因為我可以看到產品訂單下降到 2019 年 7 月水平的情況，在這種情況下你會下降兩位數，但你仍然處於良好的產品訂單領域，如果這有任何意義的話。所以希望你能給我們更多的顏色，讓我們了解你認為軌跡是什麼樣的，以及這些訂單如何隨著時間的推移而正常化。然後也許我有一個後續行動。我的意思是這是一個很長的問題。

I got you, Rod. And you're actually thinking about the right way. You're thinking about it exactly the way I'm thinking about it. So first thing I'll say is that I think any seasonality right now is out the window with the current situation and with what we've seen with the order demand. We're doing 18-month planning with certain customers. And if they placed 18 months' worth of orders last quarter and now they're going to pause and we may be doing it with 3 fewer customers this quarter. So I mean it's just a -- it's a very difficult thing to get your head around.

我找到你了，羅德。而且您實際上正在考慮正確的方法。你想的和我想的完全一樣。所以我要說的第一件事是，我認為現在的任何季節性都在當前情況下以及我們在訂單需求方面所看到的情況下。我們正在與某些客戶進行為期 18 個月的計劃。如果他們上個季度下了 18 個月的訂單，現在他們將暫停，我們可能會在本季度減少 3 個客戶。所以我的意思是這只是 - 這是一件非常困難的事情。

So there's 2 things that I look at. Number one, what is our quarterly growth rate vis-à-vis a year ago to see? Because I think about momentum of demand from 1 quarter to the next sort of -- you have to look at that delta, right? Because if you grow 30% on 1% and then you grew 30% on 15%, then that would be declining demand momentum. That's the way I think about the math, right? So that's one thing we watch for.

所以有兩件事我看。第一，與一年前相比，我們的季度增長率是多少？因為我考慮了從第一季度到下一個季度的需求勢頭——你必須看看那個三角洲，對吧？因為如果你在 1% 上增長 30%，然後在 15% 上增長 30%，那麼這將是需求勢頭下降。這就是我對數學的看法，對吧？所以這是我們要注意的一件事。

But the second thing is, I think, to your point, I've been talking to the team about it. When we start comparing against these 30% quarters, I think we have to go back 2 years and get a real assessment because those numbers we know had pull ahead in. We don't know how much, as we've talked about. But I think you're right, we have to sort of do an analysis from 2 years back to really feel like what are we really seeing right now. And that's -- it's going to be a difficult thing for us to navigate because the historical way we've looked at these metrics just won't apply right now. And I think once we cycle through a year, another 4 quarters of this stuff, maybe we get to a normalized view. As I've said, we're going to go through a phase where our order demand growth will be lagging our revenue growth, and then hopefully, will get to a point where those to get back into more of a predictive model. And we just got to get there.

但第二件事是，我認為，就你的觀點而言，我一直在與團隊討論這件事。當我們開始與這 30% 的季度進行比較時，我認為我們必須回到 2 年前並進行真正的評估，因為我們知道的那些數字已經領先了。我們不知道有多少，正如我們所說的那樣。但我認為你是對的，我們必須從 2 年前開始進行分析，才能真正感受到我們現在真正看到的情況。那就是——這對我們來說將是一件困難的事情，因為我們查看這些指標的歷史方式現在並不適用。而且我認為一旦我們循環一年，再過四個季度，也許我們會得到一個正常化的觀點。正如我所說，我們將經歷一個階段，我們的訂單需求增長將落後於我們的收入增長，然後希望能夠達到一個點，讓那些重新回到更多的預測模型。我們只需要到達那裡。

Okay. That's great. And I guess, Chuck, on that subject, I know you talked to a lot of CIOs, CEOs. What are people thinking now? I mean it seems like everywhere you look, there's bad news, and it's hard to believe people are feeling like they want to spend a lot of money. But I'm curious -- yet the demand still seems pretty good. So I'm just curious what you're hearing from people, how the tone of conversations is going.

好的。那太棒了。我想，查克，在這個問題上，我知道你和很多首席信息官、首席執行官談過。人們現在在想什麼？我的意思是，看起來到處都是壞消息，很難相信人們會覺得他們想花很多錢。但我很好奇——但需求似乎仍然相當不錯。所以我只是好奇你從人們那裡聽到了什麼，談話的語氣如何。

I think COVID changed everything about how our customers think about technology. I think that pre-COVID, a lot of customers, when they went to slow spending, they would stop spending on technology. And I think COVID had them feel the impact of those decisions, and they're not -- they're going to be very prudent about stopping key projects that are giving them customer differentiation capabilities or modernization of their infrastructure or supporting hybrid work or making sure they're not falling behind their competitors.

我認為 COVID 改變了我們客戶對技術的看法。我認為在 COVID 之前，很多客戶在減慢支出時會停止在技術上的支出。而且我認為 COVID 讓他們感受到了這些決定的影響，但他們不會——他們將非常謹慎地停止那些賦予他們客戶差異化能力或基礎設施現代化或支持混合工作或製造的關鍵項目確保他們不會落後於競爭對手。

I mean it's just a different day today relative to what CEOs and public sector leaders, how they think about technology and the importance of it. Even though they thought it was really important 3 years ago, their understanding of it today is just much different. And so I'm not saying they won't make those decisions. I just think there's a higher bar for them to make those decisions.

我的意思是，與 CEO 和公共部門領導人的看法、他們對技術的看法及其重要性相比，今天只是不同的一天。儘管他們在 3 年前認為它非常重要，但他們今天對它的理解卻大不相同。所以我並不是說他們不會做出這些決定。我只是認為他們做出這些決定的門檻更高。

Tal Liani from Bank of America.

美國銀行的塔爾·利亞尼。

I have -- I still have difficulties to model next year because we still didn't even start comparing the high growth rates of orders. This is -- we're still comparing 10% to 10% of last year. Next quarter, you're getting to 30%, and you have multiple quarters of 30%. At that point of time, revenue growth should accelerate just because of supply chain starts -- supposed to get better somewhere or your actions, but we're seeing order growth decelerating instead of accelerating. So should we -- when we look at the next few quarters, could there be a combination of both order growth going down materially, maybe even to negative levels, at the same time also revenue growth being negative? I mean I'm trying to understand how to think about the next few quarters.

我有——明年我仍然很難建模，因為我們甚至還沒有開始比較訂單的高增長率。這是 - 我們仍在比較去年的 10% 到 10%。下個季度，您將達到 30%，並且您有多個季度的 30%。在那個時候，收入增長應該僅僅因為供應鏈的啟動而加速——應該在某個地方或你的行動變得更好，但我們看到訂單增長正在減速而不是加速。那麼我們是否應該——當我們展望接下來的幾個季度時，訂單增長是否會大幅下降，甚至可能降至負水平，同時收入增長也會出現負增長？我的意思是我試圖了解如何考慮接下來的幾個季度。

Do you want to take it, Scott?

你想接受嗎，斯科特？

Yes. Tal, I think the way to think about it is, back to one of the statistics that we gave you first time last quarter and then again this quarter, we've got backlog now of greater than $15 billion in product. And within that, more than $2 billion of software sitting in backlog. You add that to the $30-plus billion of RPO we've got, and we're sitting on about $45 billion of sales we've transacted that have not yet accreted to the revenue line.

是的。塔爾，我認為思考的方式是，回到我們上個季度第一次給你的統計數據，然後這個季度再次給你，我們現在積壓了超過 150 億美元的產品。其中，超過 20 億美元的軟件積壓。您將其添加到我們擁有的 30 多億美元的 RPO 中，我們坐擁約 450 億美元的已交易銷售額，但尚未計入收入線。

So I think for -- as you think about the way you want to model out next year, you need to think about the rate and pace of revenue growth being dependent on supply versus being dependent on in-quarter bookings growth. And that's certainly the way I think about it.

所以我認為 - 當你考慮明年想要建模的方式時，你需要考慮收入增長的速度和速度取決於供應而不是依賴於季度預訂增長。這當然是我的想法。

And when you think about the order trends, I mean orders, it's dollars, but not all the products have the same trends. There some of the products that are very big in terms of contribution, like sales provider side, et cetera. I have to guess that the trends there are better than the trends in the enterprise, et cetera. So does it mean the order numbers that you provide, can you dig in a little bit deeper below just a single number for orders and tell us the areas where order growth is better and the areas where order growth is actually worse?

當您考慮訂單趨勢時，我的意思是訂單，是美元，但並非所有產品都具有相同的趨勢。有一些產品在貢獻方面非常大，比如銷售提供商端等等。我不得不猜測那裡的趨勢比企業中的趨勢要好，等等。那麼這是否意味著您提供的訂單號，您能否深入挖掘一下僅在一個訂單號下方，並告訴我們訂單增長更好的區域以及訂單增長實際上更差的區域？

Yes. We -- I think some of that is available in the slides that we'll put up online. It may also be in the press release. We talked about enterprise. Enterprise orders were flat for the quarter, but then you have to normalize in the impact of the Russia and Belarus -- the decision to stop operations in Russia and Belarus. That would take it up to a 3% growth in orders. That's following a quarter where enterprise grew 37%. And the quarter before that, it grew 30%.

是的。我們-- 我認為我們將在網上發布的幻燈片中提供了其中的一些內容。它也可能在新聞稿中。我們談到了企業。本季度企業訂單持平，但隨後您必須使俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的影響正常化——決定停止在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的業務。這將使其訂單增長高達 3%。緊隨其後的一個季度，企業增長了 37%。而在此之前的一個季度，它增長了 30%。

So with these -- the way we define enterprise, as Chuck talked about, it's our biggest customers. And that business, by definition, is going to be a bit lumpy. But on a trailing 12 months, it's actually quite strong. We continue to see nice growth in SP, particularly in web scale. We gave you some of those stats during the call as well. Those are doing well. Public sector continues to hold up. Public sector demand has continued to be fine for us.

所以有了這些——我們定義企業的方式，正如查克所說，它是我們最大的客戶。而且，根據定義，該業務將有點崎嶇不平。但在過去的 12 個月裡，它實際上相當強勁。我們繼續看到 SP 的良好增長，尤其是在網絡規模方面。在電話會議期間，我們也向您提供了其中一些統計數據。那些做得很好。公共部門繼續保持堅挺。公共部門的需求對我們來說仍然很好。

And commercial, you remember, we talked about this when we first went into the pandemic that we saw commercial tip down before the rest of the sales tipped down. And then as things began to recover in late fiscal '20, we saw commercial tip off. It tends to be a leading indicator for us, and commercial growth -- product order growth was up 19% last quarter. So we're not seeing -- if that's the leading indicator, and it certainly has been for us, we're not seeing any weakness in demand at this point.

商業，你記得，當我們第一次進入大流行時，我們談到了這個，我們看到商業在其他銷售下降之前就下降了。然後隨著事情在 20 財年末開始復蘇，我們看到了商業提示。它往往是我們和商業增長的領先指標——產品訂單增長上個季度增長了 19%。所以我們沒有看到 - 如果這是領先指標，而且對我們來說肯定是這樣，我們目前沒有看到需求疲軟。

Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

保羅·西爾弗斯坦和考恩。

Guys, if I could ask for 2 clarifications. First off, I think I heard you cite a $300 million China lockdown Shanghai revenue impact in Q3. I didn't hear you cite what the expected revenue impact is in Q4. Can you share that with us?

伙計們，如果我能要求 2 澄清。首先，我想我聽說你提到了第三季度中國封鎖上海對收入的 3 億美元影響。我沒有聽到你提到第四季度的預期收入影響。你能和我們分享一下嗎？

Paul, thanks. Yes, we had -- in Q3, it was very simple for us to articulate it because we know exactly what we're expecting and everything else. We don't have the ability in Q4 to understand when they're really going to open up and how much we're going to get, et cetera, which caused us to create the range we did and just -- we're just being realistic about what we believe we'll be able to get out the door. But to actually peg it to power supplies, in particular, is pretty difficult. But I mean most of the issues that we see right now, the concerning area right now is really getting that -- getting China opened up again, getting that stuff shipping, and we need to see that. So Scott, you want to add something?

保羅，謝謝。是的，我們有 - 在第三季度，我們很容易表達它，因為我們確切地知道我們期望什麼以及其他一切。我們無法在第四季度了解他們何時真正開放以及我們將獲得多少，等等，這導致我們創造了我們所做的範圍，只是 - 我們只是對我們相信我們能夠走出大門的事情持現實態度。但要真正將其與電源掛鉤，尤其是非常困難。但我的意思是，我們現在看到的大多數問題，現在關注的領域真的是——讓中國再次開放，讓那些東西運輸，我們需要看到這一點。那麼斯科特，你想添加一些東西嗎？

Yes. What I'd add to that is -- we give the example of power supplies because that was a constraint in Q3. And part of the issue that we had in Q3 is that constraint came up very late in the quarter, right? We -- when Shanghai went into lockdown, we didn't immediately see that hit. It hit more towards the second half of April, which, of course, was within our quarter. It wasn't within the quarter of many of our peers. And there was just no time to recover from that.

是的。我要補充的是——我們以電源為例，因為這是第三季度的一個限制。我們在第三季度遇到的部分問題是該季度很晚才出現限制，對嗎？我們——當上海進入封鎖狀態時，我們並沒有立即看到這種打擊。它在 4 月下半月的影響更大，當然，這在我們的季度之內。它不在我們許多同行的四分之一之內。只是沒有時間從中恢復過來。

But I don't want you to oversimplify, and I hope I'm not leading you to that. It's not just power supplies. We've got issues in a number of different areas. I tried to give you a sense of scale because I know it's 41,000 unique components, what we said is about 350 have potential supply concerns right now. We're working those every day. And every day, some of them get resolved. And then every day, a couple more will come on to that list. So it's not -- unfortunately, it would be convenient if it was just 1 or 2 things and we could say, yes, here's exactly what those are. It is a very dynamic situation. And what we're trying to do if you zoom up a level is say, we're not assuming it gets better or worse as we scroll through Q4, and that's what's built into the guidance.

但我不想讓你過於簡單化，我希望我不會讓你這麼做。不僅僅是電源。我們在許多不同的領域都遇到了問題。我試圖給你一種規模感，因為我知道它有 41,000 個獨特的組件，我們所說的大約 350 個現在有潛在的供應問題。我們每天都在工作。每天，其中一些得到解決。然後每天都會有更多的人進入該列表。所以它不是——不幸的是，如果它只是 1 或 2 件事情會很方便，我們可以說，是的，這正是這些事情。這是一個非常動態的情況。如果你放大一個級別，我們要做的是說，我們不會假設它會隨著我們滾動到第四季度而變得更好或更糟，這就是指南中內置的內容。

But Chuck and Scott, the obvious question is to that statement, of the $1 billion, $1 billion-plus shortfall in guidance relative to Street expectations, is that all, the lack of visibility you have, the concern -- the understandable concern you have with respect to supply, is that all in the supply portion of the equation? Going back to all the many questions that have been asked about your order book, the slowdown in orders and the quality of demand, does any of that shortfall in your guidance concern about demand? Or is that all on the supply side of the equation?

但是查克和斯科特，明顯的問題是該聲明，相對於華爾街預期的 10 億美元，超過 10 億美元的指導缺口，就是你所缺乏的知名度，擔憂——你所擁有的可以理解的擔憂關於供應，這一切都在等式的供應部分嗎？回到關於您的訂單、訂單放緩和需求質量的所有許多問題，您的指導中的任何不足是否與需求有關？或者這一切都在等式的供應方面？

0. There's no demand impact in our Q4 guide.

0. 我們的第四季度指南中沒有需求影響。

It's 100% supply.

這是100％的供應。

100% supply.

100% 供應。

One other quick clarification on this topic. If we looked at the linearity of your order book, I know normally, we talk about linearity of revenue. But if we look at the linearity of your orders during the quarter, post the quarter up to this call, what will we see?

關於這個主題的另一個快速澄清。如果我們查看您的訂單的線性度，我通常知道，我們談論的是收入的線性度。但是，如果我們在本季度查看您的訂單的線性度，將本季度發佈到本次電話會議，我們會看到什麼？

It was normal, very normal.

這很正常，非常正常。

So you've seen no degradation, you'd argue?

所以你沒有看到任何退化，你會爭辯嗎？

No.

不。

[Q3] was right in line with normal pattern.

[Q3] 與正常模式一致。

And I think, Paul, the thing to remember is we're a little skewed because we had 3 quarters of 30%. If we went back 1.5 years and I said we're going to grow 10% product orders on top of 10% quarter from a year ago, we would have been quite happy with it. We're just worried about it because it's fallen 3 30s when there was a lot of planned purchases built into. So we'll tell you, obviously, next quarter, we'll have an update. But it's -- right now, it doesn't feel like there's any significant shift.

我認為，保羅，要記住的是我們有點偏斜，因為我們有 3 個季度的 30%。如果我們回到 1.5 年前，我說我們將在一年前的 10% 季度的基礎上增加 10% 的產品訂單，我們會對此感到非常滿意。我們只是擔心它，因為當有很多計劃購買時，它已經下降了 3 30 年代。所以我們會告訴你，很明顯，下個季度，我們會有更新。但它 - 現在，感覺沒有任何重大轉變。

And Chuck, a cynic would say -- you didn't see anything last quarter relative -- you're talking understandably the last quarter about 3 straight quarters of 30-plus percent growth. You didn't advertise, advise about any expected slowdown or looking at any slowdown, and now the tune's changed. I'm just playing devil's advocate here, obviously, but...

而 Chuck，一個憤世嫉俗的人會說——你沒有看到任何上個季度的相對情況——你說上個季度連續三個季度增長 30% 以上是可以理解的。你沒有做廣告，沒有建議任何預期的放緩或查看任何放緩，現在曲調改變了。我只是在這裡扮演魔鬼的擁護者，顯然，但是......

Paul, that's fine, but we don't -- we never have any commentary about future bookings expectations.

保羅，這很好，但我們沒有——我們從未對未來的預訂預期發表任何評論。

David Vogt from UBS.

瑞銀的大衛·沃格特。

I just had a follow-up on backlog and near-term RPO. If I'm not mistaken, I think your near-term RPO is flat sequentially at roughly $16.2 billion, $16.3 billion. And if I tack on sort of $1 billion increase quarter-over-quarter in your backlog, given sort of the supply chain constraints that you've articulated and maybe what some of your peers are saying, I mean, I guess I'm trying to triangulate on what the revenue trajectory looks like as we go into next year. I mean you mentioned, Chuck, to throw seasonality off the window. But is it within the realm of possibility that we could start the year next year in the first half at sort of a run rate on where we are today as we exit this year? I mean is that a realistic probability given on how revenue kind of flows through? And then I have a quick clarification follow-up.

我剛剛對積壓和近期 RPO 進行了跟進。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為你的近期 RPO 持平，依次為大約 162 億美元、163 億美元。如果我在你的積壓工作中增加 10 億美元，考慮到你已經闡明的供應鏈限制，也許你的一些同行所說的，我的意思是，我想我正在嘗試在我們進入明年時，對收入軌跡進行三角測量。我的意思是你提到過，查克，把季節性拋在腦後。但是，我們是否有可能在明年上半年以我們今年退出時的運行速度開始明年？我的意思是關於收入如何流動的現實概率？然後我有一個快速的澄清跟進。

Sure. On the RPO that we talked about, you got the number right, $16.2 billion of short-term RPO, which is up 9%. And so short term, by definition, means accretes into the revenue stream in the next 12 months. That growing by 9% is a pretty good leading indicator of at least what that piece of our -- how that piece of our business looks. As we go into Q4, and then we'll give you an update on how short-term RPO growth looks at the end of Q4, and you can get a sense of it into fiscal '23.

當然。在我們談到的 RPO 上，你沒看錯，162 億美元的短期 RPO，增長了 9%。因此，根據定義，短期意味著在未來 12 個月內增加收入流。增長 9% 是一個很好的領先指標，至少可以說明我們的那部分——我們的那部分業務的外觀。當我們進入第四季度時，我們將為您提供有關第四季度末短期 RPO 增長情況的最新信息，您可以在 23 財年了解它。

Great. And then maybe just as a follow-up. When you think about where backlog peaks and where maybe purchase order commitments on your end peaks, obviously, no supply chains kind of throw a lot of sort of the calculation out the window. But as you look at your order book and what you see from a demand perspective from your customers, how would you sort of handicap where we think we reach that sort of peak commitment from your perspective to make sure that you have the appropriate components and parts to meet the demand longer term, right? Are we talking about as order growth decelerates from 8% in this quarter, it ultimately could decelerate a little bit further? Are we a little bit closer to peak on both of those metrics than maybe we thought a quarter or 2 ago?

偉大的。然後也許只是作為後續行動。當您考慮積壓高峰的位置以及最終的採購訂單承諾高峰時，顯然，沒有供應鏈會拋出大量的計算。但是，當您查看您的訂單以及您從客戶的需求角度看到的內容時，您將如何限制我們認為我們從您的角度達到那種最高承諾以確保您擁有合適的組件和零件為了滿足更長期的需求，對吧？我們是否在談論隨著本季度訂單增長從 8% 減速，最終可能會進一步減速？在這兩個指標上，我們是否比我們一季度或二季度前想像的更接近峰值？

Yes. There's kind of 2 angles to that, David, that I'll try to touch on. One is the -- when does the backlog itself peak. And while we don't forecast that, it would not surprise me to see it grow again in Q4.

是的。大衛，我會嘗試從兩個角度來談談。一個是 - 積壓本身何時達到峰值。雖然我們沒有預測到這一點，但看到它在第四季度再次增長並不令我感到驚訝。

On the second piece in terms of purchase commitments, you saw they were up pretty substantially again in Q3, I guess, back to the earlier question of as our supply chain team not being aggressive enough in pursuing parts. Purchase commitments now sit at a pretty high level and inventory sits at a pretty high level. And that's so that as we clear the supply constraints on a few critical components, we can actually quickly convert that into finished goods product and get it in the hands of our customers who want those products. So it's -- is the peak now at the peak in Q4 or Q1? Really a lot depends on the fluidity of availability of these critical components that we're chasing down.

關於採購承諾的第二部分，你看到它們在第三季度再次大幅上漲，我猜，回到之前的問題，因為我們的供應鏈團隊在追求零件方面不夠積極。採購承諾現在處於相當高的水平，庫存處於相當高的水平。這樣一來，當我們清除一些關鍵組件的供應限制時，我們實際上可以快速將其轉換為成品，並將其交到需要這些產品的客戶手中。所以它 - 現在是第四季度還是第一季度的峰值？真的很大程度上取決於我們正在追逐的這些關鍵組件的可用性的流動性。

I hope that makes sense to you. We're sitting on both a record backlog and record inventory, which seems like it's in contrast with one another, but it's not, right? We're holding on to the parts that we've got, and we just have to get the remainder to square the sets and get those building out the door.

我希望這對你有意義。我們坐在記錄積壓和記錄庫存上，這似乎是相互對比的，但事實並非如此，對吧？我們保留了我們所擁有的部分，我們只需要得到剩餘的部分來擺正佈景並將那些建築搬出大門。

Yes. No, that make sense. We're trying to understand sort of the cash flow conversion. So that's helpful.

是的。不，這是有道理的。我們試圖了解現金流轉換的類型。所以這很有幫助。

Pierre Ferragu, you may go ahead, from New Street Research.

Pierre Ferragu，你可以繼續，來自 New Street Research。

This is Ben Harwood standing in for Pierre. We had a couple of questions. So firstly, you talked about most of your issues arising in April. So the full quarter is around 4%, 5% below expectations. Does this mean April activity was around 10%, 15% below your expectations?

這是本哈伍德代表皮埃爾。我們有幾個問題。所以首先，你談到了你在四月份出現的大部分問題。因此，整個季度約為 4%，比預期低 5%。這是否意味著 4 月份的活動比您的預期低 10%、15% 左右？

And then secondly, what happens to this demand that you cannot meet in the third and fourth quarter? Do you think it spills over into 2023? And then what would give you confidence on that? And then what kind of time frame should we expect that loss demand to be met?

其次，第三季度和第四季度無法滿足的需求怎麼辦？你認為它會蔓延到 2023 年嗎？然後什麼會讓你對此有信心？那麼我們應該期望在什麼樣的時間範圍內滿足損失需求？

Scott?

斯科特?

Yes. Ben, on the first part of your question, I didn't exactly follow your math. But relative to expectations, we talked about the -- yes, in the month of April, we talked about the -- obviously, the decision we made to stop operations in Russia, Belarus had a $200 million impact to the quarter. Most of that was -- it was 2 months of revenue that we had to forego, and there were some receivables we had to write off within that. On the supply chain side, it would have made up the remainder of that delta to our expectations for the quarter. I hope that answers your question. I'm not quite sure I followed what you were trying to get at with that.

是的。本，在你問題的第一部分，我沒有完全按照你的數學計算。但相對於預期，我們談到了 - 是的，在 4 月份，我們談到了 - 顯然，我們決定停止在俄羅斯、白俄羅斯的業務對該季度產生了 2 億美元的影響。其中大部分是 - 我們不得不放棄 2 個月的收入，並且我們必須在其中註銷一些應收賬款。在供應鏈方面，它將彌補我們對本季度預期的剩餘部分。我希望這能回答你的問題。我不太確定我是否遵循了您要解決的問題。

I was just saying that the amount that we said we missed by, if you look at what we would have expected in April from a linearity perspective, it was a certain percentage of it. So it's just a mathematical issue. It's probably correct, but we didn't check.

我只是說我們所說的我們錯過的數量，如果你從線性的角度來看我們在 4 月份的預期，它是其中的一定百分比。所以這只是一個數學問題。這可能是正確的，但我們沒有檢查。

Yes. I don't actually think about it in those terms.

是的。我實際上並沒有從這些方面考慮它。

I don't either.

我也沒有。

But yes. Again, if I didn't answer your question, Ben, we can follow up afterward.

但是，是的。再說一次，如果我沒有回答你的問題，Ben，我們可以稍後跟進。

Okay. He asked a second one, too, about the backlog rolling over into '23.

好的。他還問了第二個關於積壓到 23 年的問題。

Yes. I mean with the backlog, so a couple of things. I think what you may be trying to get at on the backlog question is the durability of that backlog. And there's -- this is something that, obviously, we've been tracking very closely. What I'd say on order cancellations is they continue to run at a rate that is actually below where it was pre-pandemic. So we're not seeing any cancellations there. We continue to see very strong pipeline and pipeline build, which is something else that I think you would expect to see weaken if there was softening demand.

是的。我的意思是積壓，所以有幾件事。我認為您可能試圖解決的積壓問題是該積壓的持久性。還有 - 這顯然是我們一直在密切跟踪的事情。我在取消訂單時要說的是，它們的運行速度實際上低於大流行前的水平。所以我們在那裡沒有看到任何取消。我們繼續看到非常強勁的管道和管道建設，如果需求疲軟，我認為您預計會看到這一點減弱。

As we look at kind of further out with what's sitting in the backlog, we've also put in place a policy change that says those orders are noncancelable -- with all orders are noncancelable within 45 days of the committed ship date. That just went into place in the beginning of February. So orders that we've received since then within 45 days of shipment are noncancelable. And for our biggest customers, we've been working with them on a bespoke basis to put in place agreements where we'll guarantee supply, but they guarantee that those orders will not be rescheduled or canceled. So feel good about the durability of the backlog we've got.

當我們進一步了解積壓中的內容時，我們還實施了一項政策變更，規定這些訂單不可取消——所有訂單在承諾發貨日期後的 45 天內不可取消。那是在二月初才開始實施的。因此，我們在發貨後 45 天內收到的訂單不可取消。對於我們最大的客戶，我們一直在與他們進行定制合作，以達成我們保證供應的協議，但他們保證這些訂單不會被重新安排或取消。因此，我們對積壓工作的持久性感到滿意。

Tim Long with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的蒂姆·朗。

Two, if I could, as well. First, Chuck, the gross margins we talked about was good. A lot of that was pricing. It seems like you guys are in a strong pricing position now. If you look out a few quarters, if and when things normalize, do you think pricing pressure remains? Or do you think that's something that will be a give back to the industry or to the customers? So is that sustainable from a margin standpoint?

二，如果可以的話，也可以。首先，查克，我們談到的毛利率很好。其中很大一部分是定價。看來你們現在處於強勢定價地位。如果你看幾個季度，如果事情正常化，你認為定價壓力仍然存在嗎？還是您認為這會回饋行業或客戶？那麼從利潤的角度來看，這是否可持續？

And second, I was hoping you could dig into software more. I heard a lot of the kind of unique onetime factors in there, but still even ex those, probably not great growth when you look at the software opportunities ahead of Cisco. Could you just give us the things to watch over the next few quarters that could start to reaccelerate growth in that software line?

其次，我希望你能更多地研究軟件。我在那裡聽到了很多獨特的一次性因素，但即使是那些，當你看到思科之前的軟件機會時，可能不會有很大的增長。您能否告訴我們在接下來的幾個季度中可以開始重新加速該軟件產品線增長的事情？

Yes. So Tim, on the first one -- thanks for the questions, by the way. On the first one, I think that as we see -- if we see reductions in our input costs over time, then we'll take into consideration whether we pass those through to the customers. The reality is we've taken on so many input cost increases that we haven't passed on to the customers that we'll look at it holistically at the time where that stuff begins to occur is what I would tell you.

是的。那麼蒂姆，關於第一個問題——順便說一句，謝謝你的問題。關於第一個，我認為正如我們所看到的 - 如果我們看到隨著時間的推移我們的投入成本會降低，那麼我們會考慮是否將這些成本傳遞給客戶。現實情況是，我們已經承擔瞭如此多的投入成本增加，以至於我們沒有轉嫁給客戶，所以我們會在這些事情開始發生時全面審視它，這就是我要告訴你的。

I'm glad you asked on the software growth because I think it's something that we want to explain. So it's a little difficult to understand completely, and we have a really interesting quarter because of the extra week a year ago and the Russia situation and the supply chain situation. So let me try to take you through what's going on in software. If you start with the fact that we have well over $2 billion of software and backlog that is connected to a piece of hardware that we will not begin recognizing the revenue until the hardware ships, so -- and that's up $1 billion year-over-year. So there's a large component of software that we're not recognizing right now that we would in normal times. So that's the first piece.

我很高興你問到軟件增長，因為我認為這是我們想要解釋的東西。所以要完全理解有點困難，我們有一個非常有趣的季度，因為一年前的額外一周以及俄羅斯的情況和供應鏈的情況。因此，讓我嘗試帶您了解軟件中正在發生的事情。如果您從我們擁有超過 20 億美元的軟件和與硬件相關的待辦事項開始，我們將在硬件發貨之前開始確認收入，所以 - 每年增加 10 億美元 -年。因此，我們現在沒有認識到我們在正常時期會認識到的軟件的很大一部分。所以這是第一塊。

And then if you take into consideration the extra week from a year ago, where we do ratable recognition of revenue on a daily basis, we had an extra week. And then you take the software that we wrote down -- software revenue that we wrote down as a result of ceasing operations in Russia, so those 3 -- the first one is hard to put a number on, but assume it's reasonable. The Russia and the extra quarter was a 5-point headwind to our software growth. So I know it's a little complicated, but I wanted to make sure you understood that. So I would expect this stuff to normalize back, particularly without the Russia and the extra-week impact. And then once supply chain starts to clear, then we'll start to see those normalized growth rates that we would expect. So hopefully, that wasn't too complicated.

然後，如果您考慮到一年前的額外一周，我們每天都會對收入進行可評估的確認，我們有額外的一周。然後你拿我們記下的軟件——由於停止在俄羅斯的運營而記下的軟件收入，所以這三個——第一個很難給出數字，但假設它是合理的。俄羅斯和額外的季度對我們的軟件增長造成了 5 個百分點的阻力。所以我知道這有點複雜，但我想確保你理解這一點。所以我希望這些東西會恢復正常，特別是沒有俄羅斯和額外一周的影響。然後，一旦供應鏈開始清晰，我們就會開始看到我們預期的正常化增長率。所以希望這不是太複雜。

No. Just curious, any other stand-alone software or 9K upgrades? Or what are the kind of things outside of the macro-related that could really help?

不，只是好奇，還有其他獨立軟件或 9K 升級嗎？或者，除了宏觀相關之外，還有哪些真正有用的東西？

Yes. The renewal stuff in '23 could be helpful. We're continuing to make progress on that across the portfolio. I mean we've got subscriptions running on switching, on routing, enterprise routing, on enterprise wireless. We've even built some subscriptions into our mass-scale infrastructure group. We've got subscriptions now in our data center networking group. So they'll sort of layering in over the next few years.

是的。 23 年的更新內容可能會有所幫助。我們將繼續在整個投資組合中取得進展。我的意思是我們已經在交換、路由、企業路由和企業無線上運行訂閱。我們甚至在我們的大規模基礎設施組中建立了一些訂閱。我們的數據中心網絡組現在已經訂閱了。所以他們會在接下來的幾年里分層。

Amit Daryanani from Evercore.

來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Perfect. I've a lot of snuck in here. I guess I will beat the dead horse on China supply chain issues. And maybe if you could answer from the perspective of the $1 billion shortfall, and I know it's supply chain, not just China, if you have in July. A, what's your conviction that there's no share loss happening? Because your peers might be 1 month off, but they sounded much better. So you have conviction that others were not able to get the power analog products that you were not and they were able to get the demand. So a, could you just talk about conviction you are not having share loss. And then b, China has had no COVID cases in Shanghai for a few days now. So assuming they open up in June, does that imply that you could be perhaps at the higher end of your guide and things get better in Q1? Or just what are you embedding from a Shanghai recovery in your fiscal Q4 guide?

完美的。我在這裡偷偷摸摸的很多。我想我會在中國供應鏈問題上打敗死馬。如果你能從 10 億美元缺口的角度來回答，我知道這是供應鏈，而不僅僅是中國，如果你在 7 月份有的話。 A，您對沒有發生股票損失的信念是什麼？因為你的同齡人可能會休息 1 個月，但他們聽起來好多了。因此，您確信其他人無法獲得您沒有的功率模擬產品，但他們能夠獲得需求。所以，你能不能談談你沒有份額損失的信念。然後b，中國已經幾天沒有在上海出現COVID病例了。因此，假設它們在 6 月開放，這是否意味著您可能處於指南的高端並且第一季度情況會好轉？或者您在第四季度財政指南中從上海復蘇中嵌入了什麼？

Okay. It's -- so first of all, I think market share is an incredibly difficult thing to assess right now because of the backlog situation, supply chain situation. And we have a complex portfolio. So if you -- are we losing share in somewhere -- I suspect there's somewhere that we are losing share. But in our core markets, I actually feel really good about how we're performing and the demand that we've seen in -- whether it's WiFi or switching or particularly in SP routing and in the web scale space and other areas. So I don't think there's a widespread problem of share, but I'm sure there are pockets that we -- our teams are working on improving. So that's the first piece.

好的。這是 - 首先，我認為由於積壓情況和供應鏈情況，現在評估市場份額是一件非常困難的事情。我們有一個複雜的投資組合。因此，如果您——我們是否在某個地方失去了份額——我懷疑在某個地方我們正在失去份額。但在我們的核心市場，我實際上對我們的表現和我們所看到的需求感覺非常好——無論是 WiFi 還是交換，或者特別是在 SP 路由和網絡規模空間和其他領域。所以我不認為存在普遍的共享問題，但我確信我們有一些口袋——我們的團隊正在努力改進。所以這是第一塊。

Amit, on the China thing, let me -- what we've built into the guide is just a whole lot of uncertainty right now because we recognize that when they do open up, first of all, we don't know what that means. We don't know what open up means. Does it mean that they're going to slowly open grocery stores and salons and things of that nature and that the logistics side of it -- or do they open up their logistics on day 1? What does it mean about the capacity of resources they have for the logistics side? But our concern is that every company there is going to be trying to ship out. In some cases, many of the factories have been approved to keep working, and their workers have been working in dormitories. So they have components or ready-to-ship product that is sitting on the floor, and it's all going to race for the ports. It's all going to compete for the airports.

阿米特，關於中國的事情，讓我——我們現在在指南中建立的只是很多不確定性，因為我們認識到，當他們確實開放時，首先，我們不知道這意味著什麼.我們不知道開放意味著什麼。這是否意味著他們將慢慢開設雜貨店、沙龍和類似性質的東西以及物流方面——或者他們是否會在第一天開放他們的物流？他們在物流方面擁有的資源容量意味著什麼？但我們擔心的是，那裡的每家公司都將試圖出貨。在某些情況下，許多工廠已獲准繼續工作，他們的工人一直在宿舍工作。所以他們有組件或準備發貨的產品放在地板上，這一切都將爭奪港口。這一切都將爭奪機場。

And we know there's lower air traffic capacity right now for us to leverage. So we're concerned about how long it takes to clear that up, which is reflected in the guide. We also think that once it gets into their ports and it starts coming to the U.S., we have the risk of seeing what we saw in L.A. several months ago. So those are all just the unknowns about what does opening up look like and what's the time frame for recovery that led us to the cautious guide that we put out there.

而且我們知道現在我們可以利用的空中交通能力較低。因此，我們擔心需要多長時間才能清除它，這反映在指南中。我們還認為，一旦它進入他們的港口並開始進入美國，我們就有可能看到幾個月前在洛杉磯看到的情況。因此，這些都只是關於開放是什麼樣子以及復甦的時間框架的未知數，這導致我們制定了謹慎的指南。

And I would just remind you that it's not just Shanghai. I think as of the last article I read, there were like 45 cities that were in lockdown, and it was over 1/4 of the population of China. So it's broader. But that's how we're thinking about it, and we just have to wait and see how it unwinds.

我只想提醒你，不僅僅是上海。我想在我讀的上一篇文章中，大約有 45 個城市處於封鎖狀態，佔中國人口的 1/4 以上。所以範圍更廣。但這就是我們正在考慮的方式，我們只需要等待，看看它會如何展開。

Thank you, Amit. Chuck, I'm going to turn it over to you for some closing remarks.

謝謝你，阿米特。查克，我要把它交給你做一些結束語。

Thanks, Marilyn. So first of all, I want to thank everybody for spending time with us and diving into this -- the complex situation that we face. It's clearly a dynamic and challenging environment. We clearly faced unanticipated events during Q3 with the COVID lockdowns and the war in Ukraine. We think the short-term challenges that we will manage through, our teams have been working really hard on these mitigation actions that we believe will begin to benefit us in the first half of our next fiscal year, which is good. We're successfully realizing price increases, which is good.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮。因此，首先，我要感謝大家花時間與我們在一起並深入研究這個——我們面臨的複雜情況。這顯然是一個充滿活力和挑戰性的環境。由於 COVID 封鎖和烏克蘭戰爭，我們在第三季度顯然面臨著意料之外的事件。我們認為我們將應對的短期挑戰，我們的團隊一直在努力實施這些緩解措施，我們相信這些措施將在我們下一財年的上半年開始使我們受益，這很好。我們成功地實現了價格上漲，這很好。

And also in Q3, even though we had a miss on the top line, I just want to point out that it was a record EPS quarter for us as a company. And at the low point of our guidance for Q4, we will deliver record EPS for the full year. So while the top line is disappointing, we have navigated this complex year and actually will deliver solid EPS when we're done. The fundamentals are strong, a lot still in our favor, demand. Business transformation is working. The technology transitions and the number that we're participating in. We have great teams around the world, and that leads me to have a high degree of confidence despite the short-term challenges that we face. So thank you all for spending time with us, and we look forward to connecting with you next quarter.

同樣在第三季度，儘管我們錯過了收入，但我只想指出，這對我們公司來說是創紀錄的每股收益季度。在我們第四季度指導的低點，我們將提供創紀錄的全年每股收益。因此，雖然收入令人失望，但我們已經度過了這個複雜的一年，並且在我們完成後實際上將提供穩定的每股收益。基本面強勁，需求仍然對我們有利。業務轉型正在發揮作用。技術轉型和我們參與的人數。我們在世界各地擁有出色的團隊，儘管我們面臨短期挑戰，但這讓我充滿信心。因此，感謝大家與我們共度時光，我們期待在下個季度與您聯繫。

Thanks, Chuck. And I'll just wrap it up by saying Cisco's next quarterly earnings conference call, which will reflect our fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 results, will be on Wednesday, August 17, 2022, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

謝謝，查克。最後，我會說思科的下一個季度收益電話會議將於 2022 年 8 月 17 日星期三下午 1:30 舉行，該電話會議將反映我們第四財季和 2022 財年的業績。太平洋時間，下午 4:30東部時間。

So this concludes today's call. But if you have any further questions, feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. And we thank you very much for joining us today.

今天的電話會議到此結束。但如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。我們非常感謝您今天加入我們。

Thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (800) 388-4923. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369-3800. This concludes today's call. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想完整收聽電話，您可以撥打 (800) 388-4923。對於從美國境外撥號的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369-3800。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連接。