思科 (CSCO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2023 年第四季度和財年財務業績電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製。如果您有任何異議，您可以斷開連接。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora。女士，您可以開始了。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal '23 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO.

歡迎大家參加思科第四季度和 23 財年季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係主管瑪麗蓮·莫拉 (Marilyn Mora)，我們的主席兼首席執行官查克·羅賓斯 (Chuck Robbins) 也加入了我的行列。和我們的首席財務官斯科特·赫倫 (Scott Herren)。

By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call. Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website.

到現在為止，您應該已經看到了我們的收益新聞稿。電話會議後，我們網站的投資者關係部分將提供相應的網絡廣播和幻燈片，包括補充信息。損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節信息、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務信息也可以在我們投資者關係網站的財務信息部分找到。

Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders unless stated otherwise. All comparisons made throughout this call will be done on a year-over-year basis.

在整個電話會議中，除非另有說明，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務業績，並且我們將討論收入和地理方面的產品結果以及產品訂單方面的客戶結果。本次電話會議中進行的所有比較都將逐年進行。

The matters we will be discussing today, include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the first quarter and full year of fiscal 2024. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2024 財年第一季度和全年提供的指導。它們受到我們在提交給我們的文件中詳細討論的風險和不確定性的影響。 SEC ，特別是關於10-K 和10-Q 表格的最新報告，其中確定了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異的重要風險因素。

With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

關於指導，另請參閱本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和新聞稿，以了解更多詳細信息。除非通過明確的公開披露，否則思科不會對其本季度的財務指引發表評論。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Chuck.

有了這個，我現在就把它交給查克。

Thanks, Marilyn, and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal '23 was a milestone year for Cisco. We delivered on our operational and financial goals while accelerating our transformation. We achieved record revenue and earnings per share in both the fourth quarter and the full year. We also generated strong margins, record operating cash flow and strong shareholder value, returning $10.6 billion via share repurchases and increasing cash dividends.

謝謝瑪麗蓮，大家下午好。 23 財年對於思科來說是具有里程碑意義的一年。我們實現了運營和財務目標，同時加速了轉型。我們在第四季度和全年都實現了創紀錄的收入和每股收益。我們還創造了強勁的利潤率、創紀錄的運營現金流和強勁的股東價值，通過股票回購和增加現金股息回報了 106 億美元。

In FY '23, we delivered nearly $57 billion in revenue, up 11% year-over-year, the highest revenue growth rate in over a decade. Overall customer demand also remained solid. In Q4, we achieved over 30% total sequential product order growth, the second highest in 20 years with double-digit increases across all customer markets.

23 財年，我們實現了近 570 億美元的收入，同比增長 11%，是十多年來的最高收入增長率。總體客戶需求也保持強勁。第四季度，我們的產品訂單總額連續增長超過 30%，為 20 年來第二高，所有客戶市場均實現兩位數增長。

As we look to build on this strong performance going forward, we remain focused on the following: first, growing market share in all key areas of our business; second, driving innovation and extending our leadership by investing in significant new opportunities for growth in AI, cloud and security; third, delivering long-term sustainable value creation for our stakeholders; and fourth, transforming our business model by growing recurring revenue.

當我們希望在未來的強勁業績基礎上再接再厲時，我們將繼續關注以下方面：首先，擴大我們業務所有關鍵領域的市場份額；其次，通過投資人工智能、雲和安全領域的重大新增長機會來推動創新並擴大我們的領導地位；第三，為我們的利益相關者創造長期可持續的價值；第四，通過增加經常性收入來轉變我們的業務模式。

Consistent with what we said last quarter, we expect to build on our record results, delivering modest revenue growth in fiscal year '24 with the bottom line growing faster than the top line, demonstrating operating leverage. Our outlook reflects good visibility and predictability driven by healthy backlog, ARR and RPO. We remain deeply committed to building shareholder value and increasing returns to our investors. We will do this through a long-term commitment to greater operating leverage while increasing our annual share repurchases and growing our dividend.

與我們上季度所說的一致，我們預計將在創紀錄的業績基礎上再接再厲，在 24 財年實現適度的收入增長，淨利潤增長速度快於營收，從而展示運營槓桿。我們的前景反映了良好的可見性和可預測性，這是由健康的積壓、ARR 和 RPO 推動的。我們仍然堅定地致力於創造股東價值並增加投資者的回報。我們將通過長期致力於提高經營槓桿、同時增加年度股票回購和增加股息來實現這一目標。

Now let me share additional detail on the quarter and key growth opportunities ahead for Cisco. First, one of our greatest competitive advantages is our pace of innovation. This quarter, we announced new solutions spanning generative AI, hybrid work, security, full stack observability and sustainability. In addition, we remain focused on delivering a more unified and simpler experience for our customers.

現在讓我分享有關本季度的更多詳細信息以及思科未來的主要增長機會。首先，我們最大的競爭優勢之一是我們的創新步伐。本季度，我們宣布了涵蓋生成人工智能、混合工作、安全性、全棧可觀察性和可持續性的新解決方案。此外，我們仍然致力於為客戶提供更統一、更簡單的體驗。

As I've stated in the past, we knew that as our backlog cleared, we would see corresponding market share gains. With the release of the calendar Q1 results, we gained over 3 percentage points of market share year-over-year in our 3 largest networking markets: campus switching, wireless LAN and SP routing. We expect further share gains in these areas as market share numbers are released for calendar Q2.

正如我過去所說，我們知道，隨著積壓訂單的清除，我們將看到相應的市場份額增長。隨著第一季度業績的發布，我們在 3 個最大的網絡市場（園區交換、無線 LAN 和 SP 路由）中的市場份額同比增長了超過 3 個百分點。隨著第二季度市場份額數據的發布，我們預計這些領域的份額將進一步增長。

Second, the acceleration of AI will fundamentally change our world and create new growth drivers for us. While AI has been an important element in our products for several years, this quarter, we announced new market-leading AI technologies across our collaboration and security portfolios designed to boost productivity, enhance policy management and simplify tasks.

其次，人工智能的加速發展將從根本上改變我們的世界，為我們創造新的增長動力。雖然人工智能多年來一直是我們產品中的重要元素，但本季度，我們在協作和安全產品組合中宣布了新的市場領先的人工智能技術，旨在提高生產力、增強策略管理和簡化任務。

We also launched new AI scale infrastructure innovation to allow our customers to process AI workloads more efficiently. Cisco's ASIC design and scalable fabric for AI position us very well to build out the infrastructure that hyperscalers and others need to build AI/ML clusters. This is a huge opportunity for Cisco, and we are laser-focused on leading and winning in this space.

我們還推出了新的人工智能規模基礎設施創新，使我們的客戶能夠更有效地處理人工智能工作負載。思科的 ASIC 設計和可擴展的 AI 結構使我們能夠很好地構建超大規模企業和其他人構建 AI/ML 集群所需的基礎設施。這對思科來說是一個巨大的機會，我們專注於在這個領域取得領先並取得勝利。

As a result of our innovation in this area, we expect Ethernet will lead in connecting AI workloads over the next 5 years. To accelerate this transition, Cisco became a founding member of the Ultra Ethernet Consortium, an industry-wide effort to drive open large-scale Ethernet-based fabrics for high-performance networking. In June, we launched our next-generation Silicon One switching ASICs to support large-scale GPU clusters for AI and ML workloads. We are seeing early success in hyperscale Ethernet AI fabric deployments. To date, we have taken orders for over $0.5 billion for AI Ethernet fabrics. We are also piloting 800-gig capabilities for AI training fabrics.

由於我們在這一領域的創新，我們預計以太網將在未來 5 年內引領人工智能工作負載的連接。為了加速這一轉變，思科成為超以太網聯盟的創始成員，該聯盟是全行業的努力，旨在推動開放式大規模基於以太網的結構以實現高性能網絡。 6 月，我們推出了下一代 Silicon One 交換 ASIC，以支持 AI 和 ML 工作負載的大規模 GPU 集群。我們看到超大規模以太網 AI 結構部署取得了早期成功。迄今為止，我們已收到超過 5 億美元的 AI 以太網結構訂單。我們還在試點 800 台 AI 訓練結構的功能。

Overall, Cisco is committed to helping our customers navigate this transition in a trusted and responsible way to deliver on the full promise of this technology, and we are well positioned to win.

總體而言，思科致力於幫助我們的客戶以值得信賴和負責任的方式完成這一轉變，以兌現這項技術的全部承諾，我們已經做好了獲勝的準備。

Next, security remains a top priority. Our AI-driven security cloud platform has comprehensive capabilities across the network, endpoint and the cloud, helping to simplify security management while increasing efficacy. Our new technologies like XDR, multi-cloud defense and cloud secure access, a secure service edge solution, are seeing rapid early adoption.

其次，安全仍然是重中之重。我們的人工智能驅動的安全雲平台具有跨網絡、端點和雲的全面能力，有助於簡化安全管理，同時提高效率。我們的新技術，如 XDR、多雲防禦和雲安全訪問、安全服務邊緣解決方案，正在迅速得到早期採用。

For example, Goldman Sachs has been one of our early adopters of our multi-cloud defense solution. In addition, we are working with Apple to incorporate Cisco's Secure Access solution into iOS and macOS. These innovations, combined with our recent acquisitions, show how we are extending our Security portfolio with deep telemetry, AI and identity threat capabilities. Given our installed base of 300,000 Cisco Security customers, we believe we have the opportunity to accelerate revenue growth in Security over the next few quarters.

例如，高盛是我們多雲防禦解決方案的早期採用者之一。此外，我們正在與 Apple 合作，將思科的安全訪問解決方案整合到 iOS 和 macOS 中。這些創新與我們最近的收購相結合，展示了我們如何通過深度遙測、人工智能和身份威脅功能來擴展我們的安全產品組合。鑑於我們擁有 300,000 名思科安全客戶，我們相信我們有機會在未來幾個季度加速安全領域的收入增長。

To summarize, we had a phenomenal year. Our fiscal year '23 and Q4 results demonstrate the strength of our business today and are a solid foundation for future growth. I also want to be very clear on our commitment to increasing shareholder returns through capital return, innovation and strong execution. Last quarter, we committed to operating leverage in Q4 and fiscal year '24, and our guidance today reflects this. Today, I want to confirm that this will be our long-term strategy beyond fiscal year '24. We will also drive a high degree of consistency into our stock repurchase program, and we'll maintain the quarterly levels in the range that we have over the past few quarters.

總而言之，我們度過了非凡的一年。我們 23 財年和第四季度的業績展示了我們當今業務的實力，並為未來的增長奠定了堅實的基礎。我還想非常明確地表明我們致力於通過資本回報、創新和強有力的執行來增加股東回報。上個季度，我們承諾在第四季度和 24 財年提高運營槓桿率，我們今天的指導反映了這一點。今天，我想確認這將是我們 24 財年之後的長期戰略。我們還將推動股票回購計劃的高度一致性，並將季度水平維持在過去幾個季度的範圍內。

Finally, I want to take a moment to thank our teams who all played an important role in delivering these record full year results and their deep commitment to the success of our customers and partners. With our focus on innovation and our commitment to operational excellence, I have tremendous confidence in our ability to capitalize on the many opportunities ahead.

最後，我想花點時間感謝我們的團隊，他們在實現這些創紀錄的全年業績方面發揮了重要作用，並為我們的客戶和合作夥伴的成功做出了堅定的承諾。憑藉我們對創新的關注和對卓越運營的承諾，我對我們利用未來眾多機遇的能力充滿信心。

I'll now turn it over to Scott.

我現在把它交給斯科特。

Thanks, Chuck. I'll start with a summary of our financial results for the quarter, then cover the full fiscal year followed by our guidance. As Chuck said, we delivered another record quarter driven by focused execution, continued business transformation and the actions we took during the year to mitigate supply issues. We reported our strongest-ever revenue, non-GAAP operating margin, earnings per share and operating cash flow in Q4.

謝謝，查克。我將從本季度的財務業績摘要開始，然後介紹整個財年，然後是我們的指導。正如查克所說，在專注的執行、持續的業務轉型以及我們在這一年中為緩解供應問題而採取的行動的推動下，我們實現了另一個創紀錄的季度業績。我們報告了第四季度有史以來最強勁的收入、非公認會計原則營業利潤率、每股收益和營業現金流。

Total revenue was $15.2 billion, up 16% year-on-year, at the high end of our guidance range. Non-GAAP net income was $4.7 billion, up 36%. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.14, up 37%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

總收入為 152 億美元，同比增長 16%，處於我們指導範圍的高端。非 GAAP 淨利潤為 47 億美元，增長 36%。非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.14 美元，增長 37%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

Looking at our Q4 revenue in more detail. Total product revenue was $11.7 billion, up 20%. Service revenue was $3.6 billion, up 4%. Within product revenue, Secure Agile Networks, our largest product category, was very strong, up 33%. Switching revenue had double-digit growth with strength in both campus and data center switching driven by our Catalyst 9000, Nexus 9000 and Meraki offerings.

更詳細地了解我們第四季度的收入。產品總收入為 117 億美元，增長 20%。服務收入為 36 億美元，增長 4%。在產品收入方面，我們最大的產品類別安全敏捷網絡非常強勁，增長了 33%。在 Catalyst 9000、Nexus 9000 和 Meraki 產品的推動下，園區和數據中心交換業務的實力強勁，交換收入實現了兩位數增長。

Enterprise routing decline driven primarily by access, partially offset by strength in our Catalyst 8000 Series, SD-WAN and IoT routing. Wireless had double-digit growth driven by our WiFi 6 products and Meraki wireless offerings.

企業路由的下降主要是由訪問造成的，但我們的 Catalyst 8000 系列、SD-WAN 和物聯網路由的實力部分抵消了這一下降。在我們的 WiFi 6 產品和 Meraki 無線產品的推動下，無線業務實現了兩位數的增長。

Internet for the Future was up 3% driven by growth in our core routing products, including strong growth in our Cisco 8000 offering. We also saw double-digit growth in web scale. Collaboration was down 12% driven by declines in collaboration devices and meetings, partially offset by growth in cloud calling and cloud contact center. End-to-end security was flat with growth in our Zero Trust offerings, offset by a decline in our network security offerings. And optimized application experiences was up 15% driven by growth across the portfolio, including double-digit growth in ThousandEyes and AppDynamics.

受我們核心路由產品增長（包括 Cisco 8000 產品的強勁增長）的推動，未來互聯網增長了 3%。我們還看到網絡規模實現了兩位數的增長。由於協作設備和會議的減少，協作量下降了 12%，但部分被雲呼叫和雲聯絡中心的增長所抵消。端到端安全性與我們的零信任產品的增長持平，但被我們的網絡安全產品的下降所抵消。在整個產品組合的增長的推動下，優化的應用程序體驗增長了 15%，其中ThousandEyes 和 AppDynamics 實現了兩位數的增長。

We continue to make progress on the transformation of our business to more recurring revenue-based offerings driven by higher levels of software and subscriptions. We saw solid performance in our ARR of $24.3 billion, which increased 5% with product ARR growth of 10%. Total software revenue accelerated to $4.6 billion, an increase of 17% with software subscription revenue up 20%. 85% of our software revenue was subscription-based.

在更高水平的軟件和訂閱的推動下，我們的業務向更經常性的基於收入的產品轉型不斷取得進展。我們的 ARR 表現穩健，達到 243 億美元，增長了 5%，產品 ARR 增長了 10%。軟件總收入加速達到 46 億美元，增長 17%，其中軟件訂閱收入增長 20%。我們 85% 的軟件收入來自訂閱。

Total subscription revenue was $6.6 billion, an increase of 13%. And RPO was $34.9 billion, up double digits at 11%. Both product and service RPO had strong growth with product RPO up 12% and service RPO up 9%. Total short-term RPO grew to $17.9 billion.

總訂閱收入為 66 億美元，增長 13%。 RPO 為 349 億美元，增長了兩位數，達到 11%。產品和服務 RPO 均強勁增長，產品 RPO 增長 12%，服務 RPO 增長 9%。短期 RPO 總額增長至 179 億美元。

Total product orders were down 14% year-on-year but grew sequentially by more than 30%. This was against a strong performance in the year ago quarter, where we delivered the second-highest orders in absolute dollars in the history of the company. The aging of our backlog has continued to improve as the supply situation normalizes and as expected, increased customer deliveries reduced our year-end backlog to roughly double historical levels as we enter fiscal '24. Order cancellation rates remained below pre-pandemic levels, which reflects the true demand and criticality of our technologies to our customers.

產品訂單總額同比下降 14%，但環比增長超過 30%。與去年同期的強勁表現形成鮮明對比，我們交付了公司歷史上以絕對美元計算第二高的訂單。隨著供應情況正常化，我們積壓的老化情況持續改善，正如預期的那樣，隨著我們進入 24 財年，客戶交付量的增加將我們的年終積壓減少到歷史水平的大約兩倍。訂單取消率仍低於大流行前的水平，這反映了我們的技術對客戶的真實需求和重要性。

Total non-GAAP gross margin came in at 65.9%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and up 260 basis points. Product gross margin was 65.5%, up 420 basis points. The increase was primarily driven by positive pricing and product mix as we realize the benefits from the actions we took in the prior fiscal year. We also drove productivity improvements with lower freight and logistics, component and other costs.

非 GAAP 總毛利率為 65.9%，超出我們指導範圍的上限，上升 260 個基點。產品毛利率為65.5%，同比增長420個基點。這一增長主要是由積極的定價和產品組合推動的，因為我們意識到上一財年採取的行動所帶來的好處。我們還通過降低貨運和物流、零部件和其他成本來提高生產力。

Services gross margin was 67.5%, down 150 basis points year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating margin came in at 35.4%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and up 300 basis points. This improved leverage was driven by both our strong non-GAAP gross margin and ongoing cost management.

服務毛利率為67.5%，同比下降150個基點。非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 35.4%，超出我們指導範圍的上限，上升 300 個基點。槓桿率的提高是由我們強勁的非公認會計準則毛利率和持續的成本管理推動的。

Shifting to the balance sheet. We ended Q4 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $26.1 billion. We had record operating cash flow for the quarter of $6 billion, up 62%, driven primarily by strong top line performance and the deferral of our Q4 federal tax payment. Consistent with our prior commentary, the IRS tax relief related to the California floods postponed our current year federal income tax payment until Q1 of our fiscal '24. Consequently, in Q1 of fiscal '24, our federal income tax-related cash outflows will include an incremental $2.8 billion of payments for these prior quarters.

轉向資產負債表。截至第四季度，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額為 261 億美元。我們本季度的運營現金流達到創紀錄的 60 億美元，增長 62%，這主要得益於強勁的營收業績和第四季度聯邦稅款的延期。與我們之前的評論一致，美國國稅局 (IRS) 與加州洪水相關的稅收減免將我們本年度的聯邦所得稅繳納推遲至 24 財年第一季度。因此，在 24 財年第一季度，我們的聯邦所得稅相關現金流出將包括前幾個季度增加的 28 億美元付款。

This quarter, we returned $2.8 billion to shareholders, comprised of $1.6 billion for our quarterly cash dividend and $1.3 billion of share repurchases. Consistent with our capital allocation strategy that we outlined last quarter, we are committed to increasing shareholder returns through a greater operating leverage while increasing our annual share repurchases and growing our dividend.

本季度，我們向股東返還 28 億美元，其中包括 16 億美元的季度現金股息和 13 億美元的股票回購。與我們上季度概述的資本配置策略一致，我們致力於通過更大的運營槓桿來增加股東回報，同時增加年度股票回購和增加股息。

Turning to the full fiscal year. We delivered record results in revenue, net income, earnings per share and operating cash flow. Revenue for the year was $57 billion, up 11%. And non-GAAP earnings per share was $3.89, up 16%, demonstrating again the operating leverage that we've been driving.

轉向整個財年。我們在收入、淨利潤、每股收益和運營現金流方面取得了創紀錄的業績。全年收入達 570 億美元，增長 11%。非 GAAP 每股收益為 3.89 美元，增長 16%，再次證明了我們一直在推動的運營槓桿。

In terms of our software metrics, total software revenue for the full year was up 12% at $17 billion with the product portion up 14%. 84% of software revenue was subscription-based, which is up 2 percentage points. Total subscription revenue was $24.6 billion, an increase of 10%. Total non-GAAP gross margin was 64.5%, down 10 basis points. On the bottom line, non-GAAP net income was $16 billion, up 13%. We delivered record operating cash flow of $19.9 billion, up 50% compared to fiscal '22, driven primarily by strong results, linearity, collections and the federal tax deferral as noted previously.

就我們的軟件指標而言，全年軟件總收入增長了 12%，達到 170 億美元，其中產品部分增長了 14%。 84% 的軟件收入來自訂閱，這一比例上升了 2 個百分點。總訂閱收入為 246 億美元，增長 10%。非 GAAP 總毛利率為 64.5%，下降 10 個基點。淨利潤方面，非 GAAP 淨利潤為 160 億美元，增長 13%。我們實現了創紀錄的 199 億美元運營現金流，與 22 財年相比增長了 50%，這主要是由於強勁的業績、線性、收款和聯邦稅遞延（如前所述）的推動。

We returned $10.6 billion in value to our shareholders via cash dividends and stock repurchases. It is comprised of $6.3 billion in quarterly cash dividends and $4.3 billion of share repurchases. We increased our dividend for the 12th consecutive year in fiscal 2023, reinforcing our confidence in the strength and stability of our ongoing cash flows.

我們通過現金股息和股票回購向股東返還了 106 億美元的價值。其中包括 63 億美元的季度現金股息和 43 億美元的股票回購。我們在 2023 財年連續第 12 年增加了股息，增強了我們對持續現金流的實力和穩定性的信心。

We continued to invest organically and inorganically in our innovation pipeline during Q4. We closed the acquisitions of Lightspin Technologies, Smartlook and Armorblox. These investments are consistent with our strategy of complementing our internal innovation and R&D with targeted strategic M&A.

第四季度，我們繼續對創新渠道進行有機和無機投資。我們完成了對 Lightspin Technologies、Smartlook 和 Armorblox 的收購。這些投資符合我們通過有針對性的戰略併購補充內部創新和研發的戰略。

To summarize, we had a very strong quarter and fiscal year with record results. We executed well, delivering double-digit top line growth, profitability and cash flow. We continue to make progress on our business model shift to more recurring revenue while making strategic investments and innovation to capitalize on our significant growth opportunities.

總而言之，我們度過了非常強勁的季度和財年，並取得了創紀錄的業績。我們執行得很好，實現了兩位數的營收增長、盈利能力和現金流。我們繼續在業務模式轉向更多經常性收入方面取得進展，同時進行戰略投資和創新，以利用我們的重大增長機會。

Turning now to our guidance. For fiscal Q1, our guidance is we expect revenue to be in the range of $14.5 billion to $14.7 billion. We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 65% to 66%. Our non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 34% to 35%. And non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $1.02 to $1.04.

現在轉向我們的指導。對於第一財季，我們的指導是預計收入在 145 億美元至 147 億美元之間。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將在 65% 至 66% 之間。我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率預計在 34% 至 35% 之間。非 GAAP 每股收益預計為 1.02 美元至 1.04 美元。

For fiscal year '24, our guidance is as follows. We expect revenue to be in the range of $57 billion to $58.2 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $4.01 to $4.08. In both our Q1 and full year guidance, we're assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 19%.

對於 24 財年，我們的指導如下。我們預計收入將在 570 億美元至 582 億美元之間。非 GAAP 每股收益預計為 4.01 美元至 4.08 美元。在我們的第一季度和全年指引中，我們假設非 GAAP 有效稅率為 19%。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

現在我將把它轉回給瑪麗蓮，以便我們可以進入問答環節。

Thanks, Scott. Michelle, let's go ahead and queue up for questions.

謝謝，斯科特。米歇爾，我們繼續排隊提問吧。

Tim Long with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的蒂姆·朗。

Chuck, maybe we'll start with kind of the order backlog performance. Sounds a lot better than seasonal in Q4. Could you talk a little bit about what you attribute that to? And then maybe looking into next year, it doesn't look like you're baking a lot of that into either Q1 or the full year. So what's kind of the expectation for kind of the pull-through of those orders into what you're going to see in revenues in fiscal '24?

Chuck，也許我們將從訂單積壓績效開始。聽起來比第四季度的季節性好得多。您能談談您將其歸因於什麼嗎？然後，也許展望明年，您似乎不會在第一季度或全年中投入大量資金。那麼，對於將這些訂單轉化為 24 財年收入的預期是什麼？

Thanks, Tim. So I'll provide some color. And Scott, maybe you can talk about the conversion of the orders. Look, first of all, we're obviously dealing in a world that has a lot of dynamics right now, but our teams executed incredibly well. As I've said on prior calls, with our sales organization, when you see transitions in sort of customer buying, if it's getting worse, what we see is that our teams will forecast a quarter and then by the end of the quarter, they would have dropped and/or missed.

謝謝，蒂姆。所以我會提供一些顏色。斯科特，也許你可以談談訂單的轉換。首先，我們顯然身處一個充滿活力的世界，但我們的團隊執行得非常好。正如我在之前的電話中所說，在我們的銷售組織中，當你看到客戶購買的轉變時，如果情況變得更糟，我們看到的是我們的團隊將預測一個季度，然後到季度末，他們會掉落和/或錯過。

And then when it's beginning to stabilize and get better, they tend to actually exceed the forecast. And so what we saw in Q4 was they had their opening forecast. They nailed month 1, they nailed month 2, and they exceeded month 3 by several hundred million dollars. So it was one of those quarters that they actually overperformed what they thought they would do at the beginning of the quarter, which is a positive sign. But again, it's one quarter.

然後，當情況開始穩定並變得更好時，它們實際上往往會超出預測。所以我們在第四季度看到的是他們有開盤預測。他們鎖定了第一個月，鎖定了第二個月，並且在第三個月超出了數億美元。因此，在其中一個季度中，他們的表現實際上超出了他們在季度初的預期，這是一個積極的跡象。但再說一遍，這是四分之一。

We also had the largest quarter in our history of enterprise software agreements from an orders perspective. So we had a lot of big customers making big commitments, which was a positive thing. The -- if you think about what was going on around the world, I'd say service provider just continued to be weak. Enterprise improved, commercial improved. U.S. enterprise was basically flat. So that was better than we had been experiencing for sure, which is a good sign. Public sector remains steady. And verticals, we saw strength in financial services, transportation and energy. And we saw some good strength in countries like India and Saudi around the world.

從訂單角度來看，我們的企業軟件協議數量也是歷史上最大的一個季度。因此，我們有很多大客戶做出了重大承諾，這是一件積極的事情。如果你考慮一下世界各地正在發生的事情，我會說服務提供商繼續表現疲弱。企業改善了，商業改善了。美國企業基本持平。所以這肯定比我們經歷的要好，這是一個好兆頭。公共部門保持穩定。在垂直領域，我們看到了金融服務、交通和能源領域的優勢。我們看到了印度和沙特等世界各地國家的一些良好實力。

So it's one quarter, but if you compare it to the prior few quarters where the teams had opening forecast that they generally missed by the time we got to the end of the quarter, this was one where I'd say that it was much more stable as we went through the quarter.

所以這是一個季度，但如果你將其與前幾個季度進行比較，在前幾個季度中，球隊有開局預測，但在我們到季度末時他們通常會錯過，我想說的是，這是一個多得多的季度我們整個季度都保持穩定。

Scott, do you want to talk about the order conversion?

Scott，你想談談訂單轉換嗎？

Yes. As we think about fiscal '24, we've got pretty good visibility driven by really the business model shift that we've talked about. So a couple of data points that I think you already have, Tim. One is current RPO of $17.9 billion. So total RPO approaching $35 billion, of which $17.9 billion is current, meaning it turns into revenue in the next 12 months.

是的。當我們考慮 24 財年時，我們已經獲得了相當好的能見度，這實際上是由我們所討論的商業模式轉變所推動的。蒂姆，我認為您已經掌握了一些數據點。其中之一是當前 RPO 為 179 億美元。因此，RPO 總額接近 350 億美元，其中當前 179 億美元，這意味著它將在未來 12 個月內轉化為收入。

We ended the year as we expected with roughly double our normal backlog levels. But that excess backlog will work down in the first half of fiscal '24 with the majority of that being worked off in Q1, by the way. And we've got $24.3 billion of ARR that we get a chance to renew. Now obviously, some of that will already be captured in RPO, but there's opportunity that's not already captured in RPO as well. So we entered the year with round numbers, 40% of that top line pretty much already in hand between those 3 categories. So feel good about the way we see the year laying out.

正如我們預期的那樣，我們年底的積壓水平大約是正常水平的兩倍。但順便說一句，多餘的積壓將在 24 財年上半年得到緩解，其中大部分將在第一季度得到解決。我們有 243 億美元的 ARR，我們有機會更新。顯然，其中一些機會已經在 RPO 中捕獲，但也有一些機會尚未在 RPO 中捕獲。因此，我們以整數進入了這一年，這 3 個類別之間幾乎已經掌握了 40% 的收入。因此，我們對這一年的安排感到滿意。

Yes. If I could make one more comment, Tim. On the sequentials, we said given that the year-over-years are just sort of difficult to -- they don't really provide a clear view on what's going on. We've been talking about sequentials a fair amount. And I did say in my opening comments that sequentials from Q3 to Q4 were in excess of 30%.

是的。如果我還能再發表評論的話，蒂姆。關於序列，我們說，考慮到逐年變化有點困難——它們並沒有真正提供對正在發生的事情的清晰看法。我們已經談論了相當多的順序。我在開場白中確實說過，從第三季度到第四季度的連續增長超過了 30%。

To put that in perspective, it's typically 18% to 20%. And from a customer segment perspective, enterprise was well above that, public sector was well above it. Commercial was pretty close to it, and service provider was the low one. However, it was still above historical trends on a sequential basis. So just to try to give you as much color as we can.

從角度來看，通常為 18% 至 20%。從客戶群的角度來看，企業遠遠高於這一水平，公共部門也遠高於這一水平。商業服務與此相當接近，而服務提供商則處於最低水平。然而，環比仍高於歷史趨勢。所以我們只是盡力為您提供盡可能多的色彩。

Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

阿米特·達里亞納尼 (Amit Daryanani) 與 Evercore。

Congrats on a nice set of numbers here. I guess maybe 2 things I'd love to get your perspective on. Chuck, when you talk about consistency in capital allocation, can you just expand a bit more on what does that mean? Are you going to think about this as a percent of free cash flow that you're going to go for buybacks or some other metric? Can you just talk about what does that mean? And how do you intend to deploy the capital allocation would be helpful.

恭喜您獲得了一組不錯的數字。我想也許有兩件事我很想听聽您的看法。 Chuck，當您談到資本配置的一致性時，您能詳細說明一下這意味著什麼嗎？您是否會將其視為您要用於回購或其他指標的自由現金流的百分比？你能簡單談談這意味著什麼嗎？您打算如何部署資本配置將會有所幫助。

And then perhaps somewhat maybe related to that, I guess, when we think about the fiscal '24 revenue guide that you folks are providing, 7% growth in Q1, I think, 1% for the full year. That sort of would imply back half will decline. So what are you assuming in the back half that gives you that kind of (inaudible) that would be helpful.

然後，我想，當我們考慮你們提供的 24 財年收入指南時，我認為可能與此相關，第一季度增長 7%，我認為全年增長 1%。這意味著後半程將會下降。那麼，您在後半部分中假設什麼會給您帶來幫助（聽不清）。

Let me make some -- just a couple of comments, and I'm going to hand it to Scott and let him answer probably both of these. On the capital allocation and the leverage comments, what I would say is that we've spent a lot of time talking to our shareholders over the last few months. And it's clearly important to our shareholders that we commit to and we deliver on operating leverage in our P&L, and we've been doing it, but we haven't committed to it for long term. So that's what we're basically doing today is saying that we are going to continue to commit to do -- to provide operating leverage in the P&L as we look to the future.

讓我發表一些——只是一些評論，我將把它交給斯科特，讓他回答可能這兩個問題。關於資本配置和槓桿評論，我想說的是，過去幾個月我們花了很多時間與股東交談。對於我們的股東來說，我們承諾並在損益表中實現運營槓桿顯然很重要，我們一直在這樣做，但我們並沒有長期致力於這一點。因此，我們今天所做的基本上就是說，我們將繼續致力於在展望未來時在損益表中提供運營槓桿。

And then on the buybacks, we had also increased -- there are 2 things we wanted to do was increase the amount as well as drive more consistency and predictability for our shareholders. And so the rate, as I said, that we've been running at like the last 3 quarters is sort of the target that we would be at on a quarterly basis as we go forward.

然後在回購方面，我們也增加了——我們想做兩件事，一是增加回購數量，二是為我們的股東帶來更多的一致性和可預測性。因此，正如我所說，我們過去三個季度的運行速度是我們今後每季度達到的目標。

Scott, do you want to add to that and then talk about the revenue guide?

斯科特，你想補充一下，然後談談收入指南嗎？

Yes, will do. And Amit, I think you were one of those voices that talked about cap allocation consistently at a higher level and also being consistent. And what you've seen over the last 3 quarters is that share buyback has been very consistent at $1.25 billion -- right around $1.25 billion per quarter. We see that continuing into the future. That's $5 billion a year in share buybacks. The dividend right now runs (inaudible) $6.5 billion. So you add those 2 together, that's $11.5 billion of capital return to shareholders.

是的，會的。阿米特，我認為你是那些在更高級別上一致談論上限分配並且保持一致的聲音之一。您在過去 3 個季度中看到的是，股票回購一直非常穩定，為 12.5 億美元，即每季度 12.5 億美元左右。我們看到這種情況將持續到未來。這相當於每年 50 億美元的股票回購。目前股息為（聽不清）65 億美元。因此，將這 2 項加在一起，即為股東帶來 115 億美元的資本回報。

It doesn't feel like it's in a bad place, but responding to need to be both elevated and more consistent in share buybacks is what you're hearing. You've seen us do it already. The difference is we're verbalizing it in advance now, I guess.

感覺並沒有什麼不好的地方，但你聽到的是對提高股票回購力度和更加一致的股票回購需求的回應。您已經看到我們這樣做了。我想，不同之處在於我們現在提前用語言表達它。

And on your revenue guide question, I think it's easy to get a little confused by the year-on-year growth rates when we've had the supply constraints that we've had over the last few years. I mean the reality is some of the revenue that we ended up posting this year in fiscal '23, are orders that we took and customers wanted the product back in fiscal '22. We just couldn't get it out. We couldn't get it delivered because of the supply constraints.

關於您的收入指南問題，我認為當我們面臨過去幾年的供應限制時，很容易對同比增長率感到有點困惑。我的意思是，現實情況是，我們今年在 23 財年最終公佈的部分收入是我們收到的訂單以及客戶希望在 22 財年收回產品的訂單。我們只是無法把它拿出來。由於供應限制，我們無法交付。

So the better way to think about this is what's been the compound annual growth rate from when we started building that backlog and the supply constraints set in, which was the end of our fiscal '21 through -- and I'll just pick the midpoint of our guide for fiscal '24. If you do the compound annual growth rate on revenue through that time, it's right around 5%, which is, as you know, in line with what we see as our opportunity longer term.

因此，更好的思考這個問題的方法是，從我們開始積壓訂單和設定供應限制時起，即我們 21 財年結束時的複合年增長率是多少——我只選擇中點我們的24 財年指南。如果你算一下這段時間內收入的複合年增長率，它大約在 5% 左右，正如你所知，這與我們認為的長期機會是一致的。

So I think it's a little bit tough to track what's happening when you just rely on year-on-years because the year-on-years have just been so skewed by the supply chain. If you step back from it and look at endpoint to endpoint, that growth rate feels pretty good.

因此，我認為，當您僅依賴逐年數據時，要跟踪正在發生的情況有點困難，因為逐年數據已被供應鏈嚴重扭曲。如果你退後一步，從一個端點到另一個端點來看，這種增長率感覺相當不錯。

No, that 3-year CAGR is really helpful.

不，三年復合年增長率確實很有幫助。

Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的梅塔·馬歇爾。

Fantastic kind of data points around the traction with the hyperscalers. When it comes to kind of the $0.5 billion of orders you noted or even kind of the 800-gig trials, is that with Scheduled Fabric? Is that with Silicon One? Just kind of trying to get a sense of what piece of the portfolio that is.

關於超大規模企業的吸引力的數據點非常棒。當談到您提到的 5 億美元訂單，甚至 800 場試驗時，是 Scheduled Fabric 嗎？是矽一號嗎？只是想了解一下這是投資組合的哪一部分。

And then just on the Security portfolio, clearly, you're rolling out a new -- a lot of new products, changing some of the sales approaches. Just when do you think we could see an inflection in that business?

然後，就安全產品組合而言，顯然，您正在推出許多新產品，改變一些銷售方式。您認為我們什麼時候可以看到該業務的拐點？

Yes, Meta, thank you. So on the Ethernet underneath the AI GPU networks, it is Silicon One for sure. And I think for the next 12 months or so, I think we'll be doing trials. I think we'll have some opportunities, but there'll still be a lot of InfiniBand. And that's why we joined as a founding member of this Ultra Ethernet coalition so that we can guide the standards and really deliver Scheduled Fabric, to your point, in a very effective way. So we think into FY '25 and beyond, this thing will begin to shift to more of an Ethernet-based infrastructure.

是的，梅塔，謝謝你。因此，在 AI GPU 網絡下方的以太網上，它肯定是 Silicon One。我認為在接下來的 12 個月左右的時間裡，我們將進行試驗。我認為我們會有一些機會，但仍然會有很多 InfiniBand。這就是為什麼我們作為該超以太網聯盟的創始成員加入的原因，以便我們能夠指導標準並以非常有效的方式真正按照您的觀點提供 Scheduled Fabric。因此，我們認為到 25 財年及以後，這個東西將開始轉向更多基於以太網的基礎設施。

On the Security front, yes, we've had some early traction. I mentioned Goldman in the multi-cloud defense, which is a great sign of confidence in that solution. If you look at our XDR platform, which, candidly, we just went (inaudible) right at the end of the quarter. And we already took a 7-figure order from a retailer in Europe. So that was positive.

在安全方面，是的，我們已經取得了一些早期的進展。我在多雲防禦中提到了高盛，這是對該解決方案充滿信心的一個重要標誌。如果你看看我們的 XDR 平台，坦率地說，我們剛剛在本季度末推出了該平台（聽不清）。我們已經從歐洲一家零售商那裡拿到了一份 7 位數的訂單。所以這是積極的。

We took one of our largest security orders ever. We took an 8-figure security order from a Fortune 10 company in Q4. So there's some early green shoots, and the teams are executing. The early feedback and early commentary from analysts and customers, et cetera, is positive, but we've got to actually deliver on it. And hopefully, in the second half of this year, we'll see some real positive impact and in '25 for sure.

我們接到了有史以來最大的安全訂單之一。第四季度，我們從一家財富 10 強公司獲得了 8 位數的安全訂單。因此，已經出現了一些早期的萌芽，團隊正在執行。來自分析師和客戶等的早期反饋和早期評論是積極的，但我們必須實際兌現它。希望在今年下半年，我們會看到一些真正的積極影響，並且肯定會在 25 年看到。

Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.

高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的邁克爾·吳 (Michael Ng)。

I just have 2. First, it was encouraging to hear about the share gains on campus switching, SP routing and wireless as well as the expectation to continue to grow share. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the sales execution, the product road map there that gives you the most confidence in that continued share growth.

我只想說 2。首先，聽到園區交換、SP 路由和無線的份額增長以及份額繼續增長的預期令人鼓舞。我只是想知道您是否可以談談銷售執行情況，那裡的產品路線圖讓您對持續的份額增長充滿信心。

And then second, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about your expectations as it relates to the trajectory of orders going forward. It sounds like if the backlog kind of gets back to normal levels in the first quarter, you should just grow along with revenue growth as we think about order growth beyond the first quarter, but just would love your thoughts there.

其次，我只是想知道您是否可以談談您的期望，因為它與未來訂單的軌蹟有關。聽起來，如果積壓訂單在第一季度恢復到正常水平，您應該隨著收入增長而增長，因為我們考慮第一季度之後的訂單增長，但我會喜歡您的想法。

Thanks, Michael. On the share gains in the enterprise networking space, which is what you're asking about, we expect Q2 will be equal to or maybe slightly above the incremental gains that we see when those numbers come out based on some estimates that we have done internally.

謝謝，邁克爾。關於企業網絡領域的份額收益，這就是您所問的問題，我們預計第二季度將等於或可能略高於我們根據我們內部所做的一些估計得出的這些數字所看到的增量收益。

I would say the thing that is really helping beyond being great products, but we have done a couple of things. Number one, we have begun to deliver on monitoring and then subsequent management of our Catalyst -- the traditional Catalyst portfolio with the Meraki dashboard. And that's a real advantage for customers. It allows them to run a hybrid of the 2 portfolios. It allows them to have visibility from one dashboard to both sets of portfolios. And so that's been really well received. It has been a key driver in significant improvement in our renewal rates on the software side.

我想說的是，除了成為偉大的產品之外，真正有幫助的事情，但我們已經做了幾件事。第一，我們已經開始對 Catalyst 進行監控和後續管理——帶有 Meraki 儀表板的傳統 Catalyst 產品組合。這對客戶來說是一個真正的優勢。它允許他們混合運行這兩個投資組合。它使他們能夠從一個儀表板看到兩組投資組合的可見性。所以這非常受歡迎。它是我們軟件方面續訂率顯著提高的關鍵驅動力。

And while I'm talking about it, I thought I would share one milestone with you. I've been asked for a few years, when do we think the software renewals in the enterprise networking space would be meaningful. And FY '24 is the first year, I think, it will be meaningful.

當我談論它時，我想我應該與你們分享一個里程碑。幾年來我一直被問到，我們認為企業網絡領域的軟件更新什麼時候才會有意義。我認為 24​​ 財年是第一年，這將是有意義的。

So just to give you a perspective on it. We expect this year to renew enterprise networking software at close to $1 billion. So the transition that we've been going through for all these years is going to hopefully begin to start to pay solid benefits for us going forward. But that's what's going on in that portfolio.

所以只是為了給你一個對此的看法。我們預計今年企業網絡軟件的更新費用將接近 10 億美元。因此，我們這些年來所經歷的轉變將有望開始為我們的未來帶來實實在在的好處。但這就是該投資組合中正在發生的事情。

Scott, you want to talk about...

斯科特，你想談談...

Trajectory of orders, yes. And Michael, thanks for that question. What I'd say is, if you remember our commentary from the last call, we said there were kind of 3 things going on inside product orders. One was the lead times were normalizing, going from being fairly lengthy to going back to a normal level, which, of course, if the lead time yesterday was 30 weeks and today it's 10 weeks, means you don't have to place another order for 20 weeks. Those are mostly normalized. They will finish being normalized certainly in the first half of fiscal '24. And so that effect will be dampened.

訂單軌跡，是的。邁克爾，謝謝你提出這個問題。我想說的是，如果您還記得我們上次電話會議的評論，我們說產品訂單中發生了三件事。一是交貨時間正在正常化，從相當長的時間恢復到正常水平，當然，如果昨天的交貨時間是 30 週，今天是 10 週，這意味著您不必再下訂單20週。這些大多是標準化的。它們肯定會在 24 財年上半年完成正常化。因此，這種影響將會減弱。

The second is backlog. And as we were still sitting on excess backlog, and we still do, but we've obviously been working our way through that and delivering product to customers. As we get their backlog orders in their hands, they can complete that project and then place the order for the next project. And so that's also been a little bit of a headwind to bookings, and then it's whatever is happening in the macro would be the third factor.

二是積壓。由於我們仍然積壓過多，而且仍然如此，但我們顯然一直在努力解決這個問題並向客戶提供產品。當我們將積壓訂單交到他們手中時，他們可以完成該項目，然後為下一個項目下訂單。因此，這也對預訂產生了一點阻力，然後宏觀上發生的任何事情都將是第三個因素。

We think those first 2 will normalize in the first half of fiscal '24. Lead times will be normalized, certainly by the time we get to the end of the first half and much of the backlog -- the excess backlog will ship out during the first quarter of fiscal '24. So I think we'll have a clearer view, and I expect to see more normal ordering patterns. Of course, we don't guide orders, but I expect to see more normal ordering patterns in the second half of the year.

我們認為前兩項將在 24 財年上半年正常化。交貨時間將正常化，當然是到上半年結束時，大部分積壓訂單將在 24 財年第一季度發貨。所以我認為我們會有一個更清晰的觀點，並且我期望看到更多正常的訂購模式。當然，我們不指導訂單，但我預計下半年會看到更多正常的訂單模式。

Ittai Kidron with Oppenheimer.

Ittai Kidron 與奧本海默。

Chuck, maybe you could talk about the RPO. Very strong performance there, especially when you look at the same metric a year ago. Maybe you can unpack this a little bit in the context of a few metrics, meaning duration of contracts the customers are willing to go into now, size of deals that are willing to move into now. I'm just trying to kind of get a little bit into the elements of this significant increase in RPO.

Chuck，也許你可以談談 RPO。那裡的表現非常強勁，尤其是當您查看一年前的相同指標時。也許您可以在一些指標的背景下稍微解釋一下這個問題，這意味著客戶現在願意簽訂的合同期限，現在願意簽訂的交易規模。我只是想稍微了解一下 RPO 大幅增長的要素。

Yes. Thanks, Ittai. I'll give you a little color and then I'll let Scott comment again, too. A lot of this is -- we've made this transition to -- virtually our entire enterprise networking portfolio now is a subscription model. And so that contributes. And Scott can talk about the year-over-year contribution that we've seen.

是的。謝謝，伊泰。我會給你一點顏色，然後我也會讓斯科特再次發表評論。其中很多——我們已經實現了這一轉變——實際上我們的整個企業網絡產品組合現在都是訂閱模式。所以這有所貢獻。斯科特可以談談我們所看到的逐年貢獻。

But I mean we have $35 billion in RPO. And I think it's an important thing because when you think about market share and some of the concerns that people have had, you have to remember that we put a reasonable amount of each order in our core networking portfolio on the enterprise side goes into RPO and doesn't get reported as revenue. It's ratable. So it's a headwind to market share.

但我的意思是我們有 350 億美元的 RPO。我認為這是一件重要的事情，因為當你考慮市場份額和人們所關心的一些問題時，你必須記住，我們在企業方面的核心網絡產品組合中將每個訂單的合理數量納入 RPO 和不報告為收入。這是可評級的。因此，這對市場份額來說是一個不利因素。

And the other thing that I would point out is that we had a record year at 50 -- almost $57 billion at a time where we were building RPO to $35 billion and we have the backlog that we have. So there, we've had a lot of solid customer demand.

我要指出的另一件事是，我們在 50 年創下了創紀錄的業績——幾乎 570 億美元，當時我們將 RPO 建設到了 350 億美元，而且我們還有積壓的訂單。因此，我們有很多可靠的客戶需求。

I'd say in Q4, we certainly saw a fair amount of the enterprise networking. As we ship those products, we saw that software come out of backlog as we've talked about and moved into RPO. We saw a lot of these enterprise agreements that we did with our customers in enterprise contributed to it as well. Those were reasonably large deals.

我想說，在第四季度，我們確實看到了大量的企業網絡。當我們交付這些產品時，我們看到軟件已經擺脫了我們所討論的積壓工作並進入了 RPO。我們看到我們與企業客戶簽訂的許多企業協議也對此做出了貢獻。這些都是相當大的交易。

And Scott, I'll let you comment anything -- any more you want to comment on.

斯科特，我會讓你發表任何評論——任何你想發表的評論。

Yes. You specifically asked about duration. There's not much change in duration overall, Ittai. So that's not it. Q4 typically is a quarter where we have more large multiyear transactions. We talk about enterprise agreements and whole portfolio agreements. And so you typically will see a little bit of a bump in Q4 driven by that and then a little bit of a -- I'm sorry, an RPO in Q4. And then in Q1, the typically -- the typical pattern would see it come down just slightly as we work our way through those.

是的。您特別詢問了持續時間。 Ittai，總體持續時間沒有太大變化。所以不是這樣的。第四季度通常是我們有更多大型多年期交易的季度。我們談論企業協議和整個投資組合協議。因此，您通常會看到第四季度受此影響而出現一些增長，然後是 - 抱歉，第四季度的恢復點目標 (RPO)。然後在第一季度，典型的模式會看到它在我們解決這些問題時略有下降。

I think the other thing to just bear in mind, we've got net RPO growth this year of $3.3 billion, of which product had a net growth of $1.7 billion. If you looked at our current RPO when we began the year, it was about $16.8 billion, which means all of that came out of RPO. And yet on top of that -- yes, short term. On top of that, we added $1.7 billion. So we added quite a bit of current year sales into that RPO balance.

我認為要記住的另一件事是，今年我們的 RPO 淨增長為 33 億美元，其中產品淨增長為 17 億美元。如果你看看今年年初時我們當前的 RPO，就會發現約為 168 億美元，這意味著所有這些都來自 RPO。但最重要的是——是的，短期的。除此之外，我們還增加了 17 億美元。因此，我們在 RPO 餘額中添加了相當多的當年銷售額。

Back to Chuck's point, that's revenue that many of our competitors recognize immediately as they ship it. For us, we have the advantage of recognizing it over time, which makes us more predictable, and it gives us greater visibility into where things are headed.

回到查克的觀點，這是我們的許多競爭對手在發貨時立即確認的收入。對我們來說，我們的優勢是隨著時間的推移能夠認識到這一點，這使我們更加可預測，並且使我們能夠更清楚地了解事情的發展方向。

Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬修·尼克南。

Two-parter, if I could. First, as we think about fiscal '24, so you're forecasting 1% top line growth and about 4% non-GAAP EPS growth with a fairly strong exit rate on gross margin. So is it fair to assume the lift from gross margins may get offset somewhat by some OpEx reinvestment? Just trying to think about the puts and takes there.

如果可以的話，兩人一起。首先，當我們考慮 24 財年時，您預測收入增長 1%，非 GAAP 每股收益增長約 4%，毛利率退出率相當高。那麼，毛利率的提升可能會被一些運營支出再投資所抵消，這樣的假設是否公平？只是想想想那裡的看跌期權和拿貨。

And then broadly, at the Analyst Day a couple of years ago, I think, Scott, you laid out a 5% to 7% target for both top and bottom line. I'm just wondering if that's evolved at all in light of some of the greater emphasis on operating leverage that you're talking about today.

總的來說，在幾年前的分析師日上，斯科特，我認為您為營收和利潤制定了 5% 到 7% 的目標。我只是想知道這是否是由於您今天所討論的對運營槓桿的更加重視而演變的。

Yes. Matt, on your first question, I think gross margin is settling, you saw our guide for Q1 of gross margins in the 65% to 66% range. And I think it settles in there for the full year. So you can do the math with what we've projected on the top line. That drops down to a mid-single-digit OpEx growth number, so in line with expectations certainly given the environment of merit increases. It doesn't provide a lot of incremental investment, but I think that's in sync with what you've seen us do over time.

是的。馬特，關於你的第一個問題，我認為毛利率正在穩定，你看到了我們第一季度毛利率的指南在 65% 到 66% 的範圍內。我認為全年都會穩定下來。因此，您可以根據我們在頂線上的預測進行數學計算。運營支出增長率降至中個位數，因此考慮到績效增長的環境，這肯定符合預期。它沒有提供大量增量投資，但我認為這與您所看到的我們隨著時間的推移所做的事情是同步的。

So the long-term model, look, that was opportunity-based. If you look backwards, what you've seen is we have delivered the bottom line growing faster than the top line. I think the only difference that you hear from us now is, as I said, we're articulating it in advance instead of once it's happened. That's really the way to think about that.

因此，長期模式是基於機會的。如果你回顧過去，你會發現我們的利潤增長速度快於收入增長速度。我認為你現在從我們這裡聽到的唯一區別是，正如我所說，我們是提前闡明它，而不是一旦發生就闡明它。這確實是思考這個問題的方式。

Jim Fish with Piper Sandler.

吉姆·菲什和派珀·桑德勒。

Maybe just diving in on the go-to-market side. We're hearing you guys are looking to move more of the specialist sales teams out and more towards kind of a cross-sell more portfolio kind of motion. Are you doing a larger sales restructuring right now? And is there anything you can do to better package solutions across these multiple segments, especially on the growth segments that are kind of struggling here, as Meta kind of pointed out earlier, with even security.

也許只是進入市場方面。我們聽說你們希望將更多的專業銷售團隊轉移出去，並更多地採取交叉銷售更多投資組合的行動。您現在正在進行更大規模的銷售重組嗎？您可以做些什麼來更好地打包跨這些多個細分市場的解決方案，特別是在增長細分市場上，正如 Meta 之前指出的那樣，甚至是安全性。

And lastly, on the capital return side. I know you guys get asked about the technology, but -- and you talked about potential being strategic and all of that. But how do you feel about the push versus pull of either further acquisitions in either of the key growth segments that you outlined, Chuck, versus possibly even spinning off some of those segments like some of the larger companies you're starting to see do?

最後，在資本回報方面。我知道你們會被問到有關技術的問題，但是——你們談到了潛在的戰略性等等。但是，查克，您對您概述的兩個關鍵增長細分市場的進一步收購的推力與拉力有何看法，甚至可能像您開始看到的一些大公司那樣剝離其中一些細分市場？

Thanks, Jim. That was a lot. Let me tell you a little bit of the history on the specialist model. I'll tell you what we're doing in the product portfolio, which allows us to clean up the specialist model a little bit and get them a little more focused.

謝謝，吉姆。那是很多。讓我告訴您一些專家模型的歷史。我將告訴您我們在產品組合中所做的事情，這使我們能夠稍微清理專業模型並使它們更加專注。

So historically, like -- let's use Security as an example. We've had these different products, and we've sold them all individually. And therefore, you need to compete with those individual competitors. So you need subspecialists, you need specialists in every little area of security. And what we've been doing across the portfolio is moving to more of a platform approach. And so it makes it easier to sell.

從歷史上看，就像——讓我們以安全性為例。我們擁有這些不同的產品，並且我們將它們全部單獨出售。因此，你需要與那些個體競爭對手競爭。因此，您需要亞專家，您需要安全各個小領域的專家。我們在整個產品組合中所做的事情是轉向更多的平台方法。因此它使銷售變得更容易。

And in certain areas of our portfolio like collaboration and security, we've moved to a suite strategy. So we're now packaging up the Security portfolio in different suites, which allows for us to sort of optimize the security specialist or actually align them more effectively is probably the best way to say it. And so that's the work that's been going on.

在我們產品組合的某些領域（例如協作和安全），我們已經轉向套件策略。因此，我們現在將安全產品組合打包在不同的套件中，這使我們能夠對安全專家進行某種程度的優化，或者實際上更有效地調整他們，這可能是最好的說法。這就是我們一直在進行的工作。

And I think as we continue to execute on this platform strategy, it certainly simplifies the selling cycle for some of these technologies and I think getting to the suites. We've seen it work in collab. This past quarter, we had very strong order growth in collaboration. We had positive order growth in Security as well. And so for collab to be showing positive order growth is really a byproduct of the suites and leading with calling as the lead part of the suite and then also a big focus on cloud contact center, which grew triple digits last quarter from an orders perspective.

我認為，隨著我們繼續執行這個平台戰略，它肯定會簡化其中一些技術的銷售週期，我認為進入套件。我們已經看到它在協作中發揮作用。上個季度，我們的合作訂單增長非常強勁。我們在安全領域的訂單也出現了積極的增長。因此，協作顯示積極的訂單增長實際上是套件的副產品，並以呼叫為套件的主要部分，然後還重點關注云聯絡中心，從訂單的角度來看，上季度雲聯絡中心增長了三位數。

So those are the things that we're trying to do. We're trying to get the portfolio put together in a way that makes it easier and requires fewer subspecialists in the field as we move forward. Scott?

這些就是我們正在努力做的事情。隨著我們的前進，我們正在努力以一種更容易的方式將產品組合組合在一起，並且需要更少的該領域的專家。斯科特？

On the cap return question, Jim, I'd just reiterate what I said earlier. With the consistency of buybacks now running right around $1.25 billion per quarter, so $5 billion a year, the dividend consumes another $6.5 billion. That's $11.5 billion of cap return that they were committed to. And I do expect to continue to, as you've seen us do for the last 12 years, make increases in our dividend payment as you look ahead. So that's one lens on it.

關於上限回報問題，吉姆，我只是重申我之前所說的。由於目前回購的一致性約為每季度 12.5 億美元，即每年 50 億美元，股息又消耗了 65 億美元。這是他們承諾的 115 億美元的上限回報。我確實希望像您在過去 12 年中看到的那樣，在展望未來時繼續增加我們的股息支付。所以這是一個鏡頭。

I would say on the M&A and spin-off part of that, we're constantly evaluating that. We're constantly evaluating what's available in the marketplace. You saw we closed 3, albeit small kind of tech tuck-in, but 3 acquisitions during the quarter. The team's very active. We're constantly looking at that space as well as the value in our own portfolio. And so there's nothing new to report there, but those are constant things that we look at.

我想說的是，關於併購和分拆部分，我們正在不斷評估。我們不斷評估市場上可用的產品。你看到我們在本季度完成了 3 項收購，雖然規模很小，但確實是 3 項收購。團隊非常活躍。我們不斷關注這個領域以及我們自己的投資組合的價值。因此，沒有什麼新的東西可以報告，但這些是我們持續關注的事情。

Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.

Melius Research 的 Ben Reitzes。

I wanted to double-click on an earlier question with regard to hyperscalers, the $500 million in AI orders you had a briefing in June. I was wondering, have things picked up in terms of activity there? It seems like maybe it has. And I wanted to see if there's further traction that you could articulate in Silicon One. Like what kind of activity are you seeing there? And how big a business can this be?

我想雙擊之前有關超大規模企業的問題，即 6 月份簡報中提到的 5 億美元的人工智能訂單。我想知道那裡的活動有好轉嗎？看起來也許是這樣。我想看看你是否可以在 Silicon One 中闡明進一步的吸引力。比如你在那裡看到什麼樣的活動？這是一項多大的生意？

Yes. Well, Ben, welcome, and thank you for the question. We have definitely seen traction in the space. Lots of discussions, lots of architectural discussions, lots of input from those customers on what they'd like to see in the next generation of silicon as an example. And the teams are off building that we just delivered in June. As I said earlier, the next-generation ASIC that actually is built for this, but there's going to be more and more purpose-built silicon over the next couple of years. And the teams are working on that. And those customers are having a great deal of input in how that silicon gets designed.

是的。好吧，本，歡迎，謝謝你的提問。我們確實看到了這個領域的吸引力。大量的討論、大量的架構討論、來自這些客戶的大量輸入，以他們希望在下一代芯片中看到的為例。我們六月份剛剛交付的團隊正在建設中。正如我之前所說，下一代 ASIC 實際上是為此而構建的，但未來幾年將會有越來越多的專用芯片。團隊正在努力解決這個問題。這些客戶對芯片的設計方式提出了大量意見。

And in some cases, it's unique to each one. And so that's the beauty of us having such an advanced silicon capability. It allows us, if we need to, to actually build unique silicon by customer because these opportunities are so large.

在某些情況下，它對每個人來說都是獨一無二的。這就是我們擁有如此先進的矽能力的美妙之處。如果需要的話，它允許我們由客戶實際構建獨特的芯片，因為這些機會是如此之大。

In the last call, we talked about the fact that this would probably be 3 to 4x the opportunity size of the original cloud build-out. And unfortunately for us, as it's been well documented, we missed the original cloud build-out. But I can say with every bit of confidence right now that as we go through this AI transition to Ethernet, we are super well positioned. We have incredible silicon that they have been using in other parts of their portfolio.

在上次電話會議中，我們談到了這樣一個事實：這可能是原始雲構建機會規模的 3 到 4 倍。對我們來說不幸的是，由於有詳細記錄，我們錯過了最初的雲構建。但我現在可以充滿信心地說，當我們經歷人工智能向以太網的過渡時，我們處於非常有利的位置。我們擁有令人難以置信的矽，他們已將其用於其產品組合的其他部分。

We won 3 more use cases last quarter. We now are installed in 21 use cases across the top 6 of these providers. And we expect that, that momentum will just continue over the next few years. I do think that in the short term, InfiniBand is probably going to still be the preferred in most cases, but they are trialing. And we will, much like we already have, we'll get some opportunities to run Ethernet (inaudible) as we deliver Scheduled Fabric, it will become even more prevalent.

上季度我們又贏得了 3 個用例。我們現在已安裝在這些前 6 名提供商的 21 個用例中。我們預計，這種勢頭將在未來幾年持續下去。我確實認為，從短期來看，InfiniBand 在大多數情況下可能仍然是首選，但他們正在嘗試。就像我們已經擁有的那樣，當我們提供 Scheduled Fabric 時，我們將獲得一些運行以太網的機會（聽不清），它將變得更加普遍。

Tal Liani with Bank of America.

美國銀行的塔爾·利亞尼。

I have one kind of big-picture question and one more specific. Maybe I'll start with the specific question. If I look at the 400-gig Ethernet market share, cloud, if I take Arista and white boxes, it's like over 90% of the market. Cisco doesn't have much of a 400-gig market share by the data. But you are talking about growing market share in 800-gig. Can you talk about the dynamics of 400? And then why was it this way in 400 and how it changes in 800 in your expectations?

我有一種宏觀問題和一種更具體的問題。也許我會從具體問題開始。如果我看看 400 吉比特以太網市場份額，如果我採用 Arista 和白盒，那麼它就佔據了超過 90% 的市場份額。從數據來看，思科在 400 GB 的市場份額中所佔的份額並不大。但您談論的是 800 兆市場份額的增長。能談談400的動態嗎？那麼為什麼在 400 時會這樣，在 800 時又會如何變化呢？

Second is about the big picture. And I need -- I want to understand kind of the numbers. Product revenues last year were $38 billion. Product revenues this year is $43 billion. So that's $5 billion increase. And the decline in backlog is about $5 billion. Your implied guidance for next year for product revenues is roughly flat plus. So without the support of backlog, how do you get to product revenues? What are the other parts that could go to product revenues and compensate for the fact that backlog is going to be normal by the end of next quarter or next 2 quarters, maybe?

其次是關於大局。我需要——我想了解一些數字。去年產品收入為 380 億美元。今年的產品收入為 430 億美元。因此增加了 50 億美元。積壓訂單減少約 50 億美元。您對明年產品收入的隱含指導大致持平。那麼沒有積壓訂單的支持，你如何獲得產品收入呢？還有哪些其他部分可以用於產品收入並彌補積壓可能在下季度末或接下來的兩個季度正常化的事實？

Yes, Tal, thank you for that. And so on the 400-gig to 800-gig, I don't know that I've seen exact reports that you're talking about on the 400-gig. But our teams -- the volume of ports that we're shipping on 400-gig would imply that that's a -- I don't know, we've had a great deal of success and it's been growing quite significantly.

是的，塔爾，謝謝你。關於 400-gig 到 800-gig，我不知道我是否看到過您所談論的關於 400-gig 的確切報告。但我們的團隊——我們以 400 兆的端口數量運輸意味著——我不知道，我們已經取得了很大的成功，而且一直在顯著增長。

So -- but we obviously had -- over the last few years, we've been rebuilding or actually building our presence in this space. So it wouldn't surprise me to see us as a low market share player, but we've certainly won our fair share.

所以——但我們顯然已經——在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在重建或實際上建立我們在這個領域的存在。因此，看到我們作為一個低市場份額的參與者，我並不感到驚訝，但我們確實贏得了公平的份額。

On the 800-gig, I think it's just a matter of we're engaged there. We're installed already. We've got trust with these customers. They've seen what we can do. And I think that we're just in the game at the right time as opposed to where we started. And so I think from now on, it just gives us an opportunity to be there from the beginning as opposed to trying to catch up.

在 800 場演出中，我認為這只是我們參與其中的問題。我們已經安裝好了。我們贏得了這些客戶的信任。他們已經看到了我們能做什麼。我認為我們只是在正確的時間加入了遊戲，而不是我們開始的時候。所以我認為從現在開始，它只是給了我們一個從一開始就在那裡的機會，而不是試圖追趕。

And Tal, to your question on the math you're trying to do on product revenue, I think some of this goes back to the answer that I gave Tim earlier. One of the things you have to consider is some of the product revenue we delivered this year was actually demand from the prior year, right? Demand from fiscal '22 that because of the supply constraints, we simply couldn't get out the door. Had that not been the case, you would have seen higher product revenue in fiscal '22 and slightly lower product revenue in fiscal '23. And you would have seen a steady increase then from '22 to '23 and '23 to '24. So the things that are driving that are the things that we've talked about, right?

塔爾，關於你試圖對產品收入進行數學計算的問題，我認為其中一些可以追溯到我之前給蒂姆的答案。您必須考慮的一件事是，我們今年交付的一些產品收入實際上是上一年的需求，對吧？ 22 財年的需求表明，由於供應限制，我們根本無法走出去。如果不是這種情況，您會看到 22 財年的產品收入較高，而 23 財年的產品收入略有下降。然後您會看到從“22”到“23”以及“23”到“24”的穩定增長。所以推動因素就是我們已經討論過的因素，對嗎？

We continue to see good traction and market share gains in our enterprise networking products. We are invested early in the AI game and see a great opportunity there. We're getting early success, although it's -- you're not seeing a lot of it yet in the P&L, but we're seeing some pretty early success with our revamped security strategy and the great work that team has done. And so -- but instead of trying to do it the way you're doing it, the delivery has been lumpy, the demand has been less lumpy is probably the right way to think about it.

我們繼續看到我們的企業網絡產品具有良好的吸引力和市場份額。我們很早就投資了人工智能遊戲，並看到了其中的巨大機會。我們正在取得早期的成功，儘管您在損益表中還看不到很多成功，但我們通過改進的安全策略和團隊所做的出色工作看到了一些相當早期的成功。所以——但不要試圖按照你現在的方式來做，交付一直不穩定，需求不那麼不穩定可能是正確的思考方式。

Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的薩米克·查特吉 (Samik Chatterjee)。

This is Joe Cardoso on for Samik. Just one question for me. You mentioned double-digit growth across all your customer verticals from an order perspective but also mentioned service provider continuing to be weak. I was just hoping you could touch on what you're seeing under the hood in service provider. And specifically, if I split it up between telco AI and non-AI cloud, how did those track compared to 90 days ago?

我是喬·卡多佐 (Joe Cardoso) 替補薩米克 (Samik)。只是問我一個問題。您提到從訂單角度來看，所有客戶垂直領域都實現了兩位數的增長，但也提到服務提供商仍然疲軟。我只是希望您能談談您在服務提供商的幕後所看到的內容。具體來說，如果我將其分為電信人工智能和非人工智能雲，那麼與 90 天前相比，這些跟踪情況如何？

And then just quickly, a quick clarification on the $0.5 billion in orders in AI. Any way you can parse it out, like how many customers is reflected in that order number? And then just quickly clarify if that's all hyperscale or if there's any Tier 2 cloud or enterprise customers in that mix.

然後快速澄清 5 億美元的人工智能訂單。您可以通過任何方式解析它，例如訂單號中反映了多少客戶？然後快速澄清這是否都是超大規模的，或者是否有任何二級雲或企業客戶在其中。

Yes. Thank you. So on the service provider side, the first question you asked -- let me write my notes down, hold on a second, so I don't have to ask you for the question again. On SP, I think -- I'd say Q4 for the telco side of it, the communications service provider was probably fairly consistent with what it was the quarter before, so it's just relatively weak right now.

是的。謝謝。因此，在服務提供商方面，您問的第一個問題——讓我寫下我的筆記，稍等一下，這樣我就不必再問您這個問題了。在SP方面，我認為——我想說的是電信方面的第四季度，通信服務提供商可能與前一季度相當一致，所以現在相對較弱。

We see a lot of these customers have -- are digesting a lot of the infrastructure that they bought over the next few months. We think that -- our team believes that orders will stabilize on the telco side of the business in the second half of our fiscal year.

我們看到很多客戶正在消化他們在未來幾個月購買的大量基礎設施。我們認為，我們的團隊相信，在我們財年下半年，電信業務方面的訂單將趨於穩定。

On the cloud side, we believe that they'll continue to invest. And they kind of invest in 6-month cycles. And we think that in the middle of our fiscal year, we'll see growth in that investment for the first part of 2025.

在雲方面，我們相信他們會繼續投資。他們的投資週期為 6 個月。我們認為，在本財年中期，我們將看到 2025 年上半年的投資增長。

On the $500 million, it is definitely in the Tier 1 hyperscalers. So I'll just leave it at that. On the opportunity that we see, we still see -- we won 3 use cases last quarter. And I would say those were primarily non-AI. So there's still -- we're still winning new use cases in the core infrastructure. And -- but we're in trials in different discussions with most of them relative to AI Fabric.

就 5 億美元而言，它絕對屬於一級超大規模企業。所以我就這樣吧。關於我們看到的機會，我們仍然看到——上季度我們贏得了 3 個用例。我想說這些主要是非人工智能的。因此，我們仍在核心基礎設施中贏得新的用例。而且 - 但我們正在嘗試與大多數人進行與 AI Fabric 相關的不同討論。

David Vogt with UBS.

瑞銀集團的大衛·沃格特。

I'm not going to belabor the point on orders, but I wanted to ask a question about AI order specifically in terms of your ability to ship to customers and where you are in trials. The reason why I ask is we've heard from a lot of companies in the industry that there's some supply chain considerations that are maybe causing commercial deployments and revenue (inaudible) may be pushed out to 2025. So I just want to get a sense for that 500 orders that you referenced in your prepared remarks, how does that flow through?

我不會詳細討論訂單問題，但我想問一個有關人工智能訂單的問題，特別是關於您向客戶發貨的能力以及您處於試驗階段的情況。我之所以問這個問題，是因為我們從業內很多公司那裡聽說，有一些供應鏈方面的考慮可能會導致商業部署，並且收入（聽不清）可能會推遲到2025 年。所以我只是想了解一下對於您在準備好的發言中提到的 500 個訂單，其流程是怎樣的？

And then along with that, in the guidance that Scott provided for fiscal '24, how much, if any, is AI-related this year? And if not, why? And when -- going back to my first point, when do we start to see it in your P&L?

除此之外，在 Scott 為 24 財年提供的指導中，今年與人工智能相關的程度（如果有的話）有多少？如果沒有，為什麼？什麼時候——回到我的第一點，我們什麼時候開始在你的損益表中看到它？

Yes. We do not -- Scott and I are both looking at each other. We don't know of any supply chain issues we have around our AI. It's our standard Ethernet portfolio based on the Silicon One ASIC, and we're delivering it today. So I don't think there's any supply chain issue for us on that front. We might be at a better position than some because it is our own ASICs. On the FY '24 contribution of AI, I don't have that information on top of my head.

是的。我們沒有——斯科特和我都看著對方。我們不知道人工智能存在任何供應鏈問題。這是我們基於 Silicon One ASIC 的標準以太網產品組合，我們今天就推出了它。所以我認為我們在這方面不存在任何供應鏈問題。我們可能比某些人處於更好的位置，因為它是我們自己的 ASIC。關於人工智能對 24 財年的貢獻，我腦子裡沒有這些信息。

Here's what I'd say, here's the right way to think about it, David. Those orders -- what we see is, within the broader hyperscaler world, which is where a lot of these AI sales are going, they're obviously in digest mode. I think you've heard that from us and all of our peers or what they bought.

這就是我要說的，這是正確的思考方式，大衛。這些訂單——我們看到的是，在更廣泛的超大規模領域，這是許多人工智能銷售的去向，它們顯然處於消化模式。我想你已經從我們和我們所有的同行那裡聽說過這一點，或者他們買了什麼。

We do see toward the end of this calendar year, so towards the midyear of our fiscal year, we see them beginning to place orders again for delivery of product that will happen in the second half. So while I don't want to get into parsing the guide down to that level of granularity, I think what you should expect is it to be something that we'd begin to see show up in the P&L late in the second half.

我們確實預計到本日曆年年底，因此到本財年年中時，我們看到他們開始再次下訂單，以便在下半年交付產品。因此，雖然我不想將指南解析到這種粒度，但我認為您應該期望的是我們會在下半年末開始看到出現在損益表中的內容。

Yes. What I was going to add, David, is I think until we evolve some of the -- get some of the Scheduled Fabric technologies built out, they're certainly running -- they're running some of these on traditional Ethernet, which is what we're deploying today. But as we get Scheduled Fabric out and these customers get more comfortable moving from InfiniBand to Ethernet, I think that's when we'll start to see the real impact of AI. And maybe it's late '24, but I would suspect into '25 for sure.

是的。大衛，我要補充的是，我認為直到我們發展出一些——建立一些預定的結構技術，它們肯定會運行——它們在傳統以太網上運行其中一些，這是我們今天正在部署的內容。但隨著我們推出 Scheduled Fabric，並且這些客戶能夠更輕鬆地從 InfiniBand 遷移到以太網，我認為那時我們將開始看到人工智能的真正影響。也許現在已經是 24 世紀末了，但我懷疑肯定會到 25 世紀。

Got it. And maybe just a quick follow-up. So Scott, were there orders from AI last quarter in the product order commentary? Are these basically new orders in this most recent fiscal quarter? Is that maybe the right way to think about it?

知道了。也許只是快速跟進。那麼斯科特，產品訂單評論中是否有上季度 AI 的訂單？這些基本上是最近一個財政季度的新訂單嗎？這也許是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes. Don't think of the $500 million as all coming in, in the last quarter. Those are orders to date that we know are going into AI infrastructure. That's not a Q4-specific comment.

是的。不要認為這 5 億美元都是上個季度的收入。迄今為止，我們知道這些訂單將進入人工智能基礎設施。這不是針對第四季度的評論。

And by the way, a portion of that for sure is deployed. It's in and running.

順便說一句，其中的一部分肯定已經部署了。它已啟動並正在運行。

Simon Leopold with Raymond James & Associates.

西蒙·利奧波德 (Simon Leopold) 與雷蒙德·詹姆斯建築事務所 (Raymond James & Associates)。

I wanted to see if you could talk a little bit about what your assumptions are for your campus-related business, and I'm including both switching and wireless LAN. I assume that's roughly -- almost $15 billion of trailing 4-quarter sales, somewhere in that ballpark. And I've seen market research saying that business declines, some saying it's growing. And Chuck, you highlighted that $1 billion renewal. Just trying to get my head around how material that is and what's built into the full year forecast for campus?

我想看看您是否可以談談您對校園相關業務的假設，我包括交換和無線 LAN。我認為過去 4 個季度的銷售額大約為 150 億美元，大約在這個範圍內。我看到市場研究表明業務在下降，但也有人說業務在增長。 Chuck，您強調了 10 億美元的續約。只是想了解一下這有多麼重要以及校園全年預測的內容是什麼？

I'll make 2 comments and, Scott, I'll let you add to it. First of all, as we said, we think that as you see the Q2 calendar year share numbers come out, you'll continue to see us gain share in that space. And so we would expect to continue doing that. The renewal number that I threw out was close to $1 billion.

我將發表兩條評論，斯科特，我會讓你補充。首先，正如我們所說，我們認為，當您看到日曆年第二季度的份額數據出來時，您將繼續看到我們在該領域獲得份額。因此我們希望繼續這樣做。我拋出的續約金額接近 10 億美元。

And Scott, I'll just let you comment on how you want to break down...

斯科特，我會讓你評論一下你想如何崩潰......

Yes. No, I don't think there's a whole lot else to add. We're encouraged by what we're seeing in campus. It's one of the things that we've said all along is as the supply -- the backlog begins to be delivered, you'll start to see more and more of those customer decisions that went to us actually show up in the numerator of those market share equation. That's exactly what you're seeing.

是的。不，我不認為還有什麼要補充的。我們對校園裡所看到的一切感到鼓舞。這是我們一直以來所說的一件事，隨著供應——積壓的訂單開始交付，你會開始看到越來越多的客戶決策實際上出現在這些決策的分子中。市場份額方程。這正是您所看到的。

So I think the concern over the several quarters while we had supply constraints that maybe impacted us more than some of our peers, you should see those unwind as we can now deliver that backlog. The $1 billion of renewal that Chuck -- roughly $1 billion of renewal that Chuck talked about, that is a subset of our fiscal '24 guide.

因此，我認為，儘管我們的供應限制可能比一些同行對我們的影響更大，但我們對幾個季度的擔憂應該會有所緩解，因為我們現在可以交付積壓的訂單。查克所說的 10 億美元續約——查克談到的大約 10 億美元續約，這是我們 24 財年指南的一部分。

Yes.

是的。

All right. So we'll go ahead and turn it over to you, Chuck, for some closing remarks.

好的。因此，我們將繼續將其交給您，查克，請您發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Marilyn. First of all, I want to thank our teams and just say how proud I am of the work that's gone into the last couple of years to actually deliver the record results that we did. We're incredibly proud of the share gains that we expected to gain, and we are. I'm proud of the team and the new innovation that's being delivered in areas like AI and security and across the portfolio in observability and core networking and SP routing, all of these areas, the teams are doing an amazing job.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊，並表示我對過去幾年的工作感到非常自豪，因為我們確實取得了創紀錄的成果。我們對我們預期獲得的份額增長感到無比自豪，而且我們確實如此。我為這個團隊以及在人工智能和安全性等領域以及在可觀察性、核心網絡和 SP 路由等整個產品組合中交付的新創新感到自豪，在所有這些領域，團隊都做得非常出色。

And our portfolio is very relevant to the customer priorities that we see around the world. I've never seen such consistency around the priorities in virtually every customer around the world, and our portfolio lines up nicely against the key things that our customers are trying to achieve.

我們的產品組合與我們在世界各地看到的客戶優先事項非常相關。我從未見過世界各地幾乎每個客戶的優先事項都如此一致，而且我們的產品組合與客戶試圖實現的關鍵目標完美契合。

I'm also very proud of the team and Scott and the rest of the finance organization for what they've done. And we're very happy to provide clarity on our commitment to our shareholders with the operating leverage and the buybacks and our dividend as we look to the future. So thanks for joining us today.

我也為團隊、斯科特以及財務組織其他成員所做的事情感到非常自豪。我們非常高興在展望未來時通過經營槓桿、回購和股息向股東闡明我們的承諾。感謝您今天加入我們。

Thanks, Chuck, I'll go ahead and wrap us up. Cisco's next quarterly earnings conference call, which will reflect our fiscal year 2024 first quarter results, will be on Wednesday, November 15, 2023, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

謝謝，查克，我先把我們結束了。思科將於 2023 年 11 月 15 日星期三下午 1:30 召開下一次季度收益電話會議，該會議將反映我們 2024 財年第一季度的業績。太平洋時間下午 4:30東部時間。

This concludes today's call. And of course, if you have any further questions, feel free to reach out to Cisco's Investor Relations group. And we thank you very much for joining today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。當然，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫思科投資者關係小組。我們非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

Thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (866) 405-7294. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369-0606. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想收聽完整的通話內容，可以撥打 (866) 405-7294。對於從美國境外撥打的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369-0606。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。