思科 (CSCO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

歡迎參加思科 2023 財年第四季和年度財務績效電話會議。應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製。如果有異議，可以斷開連接。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係主管瑪麗蓮·莫拉 (Marilyn Mora)。女士，您可以開始啦。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal '23 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO.

歡迎大家參加思科 2023 財年第四季和季財報電話會議。我是投資人關係主管瑪麗蓮‧莫拉 (Marilyn Mora)，與我一起發言的還有我們的董事長兼執行長查克‧羅賓斯 (Chuck Robbins)；以及我們的財務長 Scott Herren。

By now, you should have seen our earnings press release. A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call. Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website.

現在，您應該已經看到了我們的收益新聞稿。電話會議結束後，我們將在網站的「投資者關係」部分提供相應的網路直播和幻燈片，其中包括補充資訊。損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節資訊、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務資訊也可在我們的投資者關係網站的財務資訊部分找到。

Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, and we'll discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders unless stated otherwise. All comparisons made throughout this call will be done on a year-over-year basis.

在整個電話會議中，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，並且我們將從收入方面討論產品結果，從產品訂單方面討論地理和客戶結果，除非另有說明。本次電話會議中的所有比較都將以同比為基礎進行。

The matters we will be discussing today, include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the first quarter and full year of fiscal 2024. They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2024 財年第一季和全年提供的指導。 它們受我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC)，特別是最新的10-K 和10-Q 表報告，其中指出了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異的重要風險因素。

With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

關於指導，也請參閱本次電話會議附帶的幻燈片和新聞稿以了解更多詳細資訊。除非透過明確的公開揭露，否則思科不會對本季的財務指引發表評論。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Chuck.

說完這些，我現在將話題交給查克。

Thanks, Marilyn, and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal '23 was a milestone year for Cisco. We delivered on our operational and financial goals while accelerating our transformation. We achieved record revenue and earnings per share in both the fourth quarter and the full year. We also generated strong margins, record operating cash flow and strong shareholder value, returning $10.6 billion via share repurchases and increasing cash dividends.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮，大家午安。 23財年對思科來說是里程碑式的一年。我們在加速轉型的同時實現了營運和財務目標。我們在第四季和全年都實現了創紀錄的收入和每股盈餘。我們還創造了強勁的利潤率、創紀錄的經營現金流和強勁的股東價值，透過股票回購和增加現金股息返還了 106 億美元。

In FY '23, we delivered nearly $57 billion in revenue, up 11% year-over-year, the highest revenue growth rate in over a decade. Overall customer demand also remained solid. In Q4, we achieved over 30% total sequential product order growth, the second highest in 20 years with double-digit increases across all customer markets.

23財年，我們的營收接近570億美元，年增11%，是十多年來最高的營收成長率。整體客戶需求也保持強勁。第四季度，我們的總產品訂單量連續成長超過 30%，為 20 年來第二高，所有客戶市場均實現了兩位數的成長。

As we look to build on this strong performance going forward, we remain focused on the following: first, growing market share in all key areas of our business; second, driving innovation and extending our leadership by investing in significant new opportunities for growth in AI, cloud and security; third, delivering long-term sustainable value creation for our stakeholders; and fourth, transforming our business model by growing recurring revenue.

在我們期待在未來繼續鞏固這一強勁業績的同時，我們仍將重點關注以下幾點：首先，擴大我們所有關鍵業務領域的市場份額；第二，透過投資人工智慧、雲端運算和安全領域新的重大成長機會來推動創新並擴大我們的領導地位；第三，為我們的利害關係人創造長期可持續的價值；第四，透過增加經常性收入轉變我們的商業模式。

Consistent with what we said last quarter, we expect to build on our record results, delivering modest revenue growth in fiscal year '24 with the bottom line growing faster than the top line, demonstrating operating leverage. Our outlook reflects good visibility and predictability driven by healthy backlog, ARR and RPO. We remain deeply committed to building shareholder value and increasing returns to our investors. We will do this through a long-term commitment to greater operating leverage while increasing our annual share repurchases and growing our dividend.

與我們上個季度所說的一致，我們預計將在創紀錄的業績基礎上再接再厲，在 24 財年實現適度的收入增長，且盈利增長速度快於營收增長，從而體現出經營槓桿。我們的前景反映出良好的可見性和可預測性，這得益於健康的積壓訂單、ARR 和 RPO。我們始終堅定地致力於創造股東價值和增加投資者的回報。我們將透過長期致力於提高經營槓桿、同時增加年度股票回購和增加股利來實現這一目標。

Now let me share additional detail on the quarter and key growth opportunities ahead for Cisco. First, one of our greatest competitive advantages is our pace of innovation. This quarter, we announced new solutions spanning generative AI, hybrid work, security, full stack observability and sustainability. In addition, we remain focused on delivering a more unified and simpler experience for our customers.

現在，讓我分享更多有關思科本季的細節以及未來主要的成長機會。首先，我們最大的競爭優勢之一是我們的創新速度。本季度，我們宣布了涵蓋生成式人工智慧、混合工作、安全性、全端可觀察性和永續性的新解決方案。此外，我們仍致力於為客戶提供更統一、更簡單的體驗。

As I've stated in the past, we knew that as our backlog cleared, we would see corresponding market share gains. With the release of the calendar Q1 results, we gained over 3 percentage points of market share year-over-year in our 3 largest networking markets: campus switching, wireless LAN and SP routing. We expect further share gains in these areas as market share numbers are released for calendar Q2.

正如我過去所說的那樣，我們知道，隨著積壓訂單的清理，我們將看到相應的市場份額成長。隨著第一季業績的發布，我們在三大網路市場（校園交換、無線區域網路和 SP 路由）的市佔率年增了 3 個百分點以上。隨著第二季市佔率數據的發布，我們預計這些領域的份額將進一步增加。

Second, the acceleration of AI will fundamentally change our world and create new growth drivers for us. While AI has been an important element in our products for several years, this quarter, we announced new market-leading AI technologies across our collaboration and security portfolios designed to boost productivity, enhance policy management and simplify tasks.

第二，人工智慧的加速發展將從根本上改變我們的世界，並為我們帶來新的成長動力。雖然人工智慧多年來一直是我們產品中的重要元素，但本季度，我們在協作和安全產品組合中宣布了市場領先的新人工智慧技術，旨在提高生產力、加強政策管理並簡化任務。

We also launched new AI scale infrastructure innovation to allow our customers to process AI workloads more efficiently. Cisco's ASIC design and scalable fabric for AI position us very well to build out the infrastructure that hyperscalers and others need to build AI/ML clusters. This is a huge opportunity for Cisco, and we are laser-focused on leading and winning in this space.

我們還推出了新的 AI 規模基礎設施創新，以使我們的客戶能夠更有效率地處理 AI 工作負載。思科的 ASIC 設計和可擴展的 AI 結構使我們能夠很好地建立超大規模企業和其他企業建立 AI/ML 叢集所需的基礎設施。這對思科來說是一個巨大的機遇，我們全心全意地致力於在這個領域取得領先和勝利。

As a result of our innovation in this area, we expect Ethernet will lead in connecting AI workloads over the next 5 years. To accelerate this transition, Cisco became a founding member of the Ultra Ethernet Consortium, an industry-wide effort to drive open large-scale Ethernet-based fabrics for high-performance networking. In June, we launched our next-generation Silicon One switching ASICs to support large-scale GPU clusters for AI and ML workloads. We are seeing early success in hyperscale Ethernet AI fabric deployments. To date, we have taken orders for over $0.5 billion for AI Ethernet fabrics. We are also piloting 800-gig capabilities for AI training fabrics.

由於我們在該領域的創新，我們預計乙太網路將在未來 5 年內在連接 AI 工作負載方面佔據領先地位。為了加速這一轉變，思科成為超級乙太網路聯盟的創始成員，該聯盟是全行業的一項努力，旨在推動開放的大規模乙太網路結構，實現高效能網路。 6 月，我們推出了下一代 Silicon One 交換 ASIC，以支援 AI 和 ML 工作負載的大規模 GPU 叢集。我們看到超大規模乙太網路 AI 結構部署取得了早期的成功。迄今為止，我們已經接到了超過 5 億美元的 AI 乙太網路結構訂單。我們也正在為 AI 訓練結構試行 800G 功能。

Overall, Cisco is committed to helping our customers navigate this transition in a trusted and responsible way to deliver on the full promise of this technology, and we are well positioned to win.

總體而言，思科致力於以值得信賴和負責任的方式幫助我們的客戶完成這項轉變，以充分兌現這項技術的承諾，並且我們已準備好贏得勝利。

Next, security remains a top priority. Our AI-driven security cloud platform has comprehensive capabilities across the network, endpoint and the cloud, helping to simplify security management while increasing efficacy. Our new technologies like XDR, multi-cloud defense and cloud secure access, a secure service edge solution, are seeing rapid early adoption.

其次，安全仍然是重中之重。我們的人工智慧驅動的安全雲端平台具有跨網路、端點和雲端的全面功能，有助於簡化安全管理同時提高效率。我們的新技術，如 XDR、多雲防禦和雲端安全存取（一種安全服務邊緣解決方案），正在迅速被早期採用。

For example, Goldman Sachs has been one of our early adopters of our multi-cloud defense solution. In addition, we are working with Apple to incorporate Cisco's Secure Access solution into iOS and macOS. These innovations, combined with our recent acquisitions, show how we are extending our Security portfolio with deep telemetry, AI and identity threat capabilities. Given our installed base of 300,000 Cisco Security customers, we believe we have the opportunity to accelerate revenue growth in Security over the next few quarters.

例如，高盛是我們多雲防禦解決方案的早期採用者之一。此外，我們正在與 Apple 合作，將思科的安全存取解決方案整合到 iOS 和 macOS 中。這些創新與我們最近的收購相結合，展示了我們如何透過深度遙測、人工智慧和身分威脅功能擴展我們的安全產品組合。鑑於我們擁有 30 萬名思科安全客戶，我們相信我們有機會在未來幾季加速安全領域的營收成長。

To summarize, we had a phenomenal year. Our fiscal year '23 and Q4 results demonstrate the strength of our business today and are a solid foundation for future growth. I also want to be very clear on our commitment to increasing shareholder returns through capital return, innovation and strong execution. Last quarter, we committed to operating leverage in Q4 and fiscal year '24, and our guidance today reflects this. Today, I want to confirm that this will be our long-term strategy beyond fiscal year '24. We will also drive a high degree of consistency into our stock repurchase program, and we'll maintain the quarterly levels in the range that we have over the past few quarters.

總而言之，我們度過了非凡的一年。我們的23財年和第四季業績證明了我們目前業務的實力，並為未來的成長奠定了堅實的基礎。我還想明確表示，我們致力於透過資本回報、創新和強有力的執行來增加股東回報。上個季度，我們承諾在第四季和24財年實現營運槓桿，我們今天的指引也反映了這一點。今天，我想確認這將是我們24財年之後的長期策略。我們也將保持股票回購計畫的高度一致性，並將季度水準保持在過去幾季的範圍內。

Finally, I want to take a moment to thank our teams who all played an important role in delivering these record full year results and their deep commitment to the success of our customers and partners. With our focus on innovation and our commitment to operational excellence, I have tremendous confidence in our ability to capitalize on the many opportunities ahead.

最後，我要花點時間感謝我們的團隊，他們在實現創紀錄的全年業績方面發揮了重要作用，並致力於幫助我們的客戶和合作夥伴取得成功。由於我們注重創新並致力於卓越運營，我對我們抓住未來眾多機會的能力充滿信心。

I'll now turn it over to Scott.

現在我將把發言權交給史考特。

Thanks, Chuck. I'll start with a summary of our financial results for the quarter, then cover the full fiscal year followed by our guidance. As Chuck said, we delivered another record quarter driven by focused execution, continued business transformation and the actions we took during the year to mitigate supply issues. We reported our strongest-ever revenue, non-GAAP operating margin, earnings per share and operating cash flow in Q4.

謝謝，查克。我將先總結本季的財務業績，然後介紹整個財年，最後給出我們的指引。正如查克所說，透過專注的執行、持續的業務轉型以及我們在今年為緩解供應問題而採取的行動，我們又創造了一個創紀錄的季度。我們報告了第四季度有史以來最強勁的收入、非公認會計準則營業利潤率、每股收益和營業現金流。

Total revenue was $15.2 billion, up 16% year-on-year, at the high end of our guidance range. Non-GAAP net income was $4.7 billion, up 36%. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.14, up 37%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

總收入為 152 億美元，年增 16%，處於我們預期範圍的高點。非公認會計準則淨收入為 47 億美元，成長 36%。非公認會計準則每股收益為 1.14 美元，成長 37%，超過了我們預期範圍的高點。

Looking at our Q4 revenue in more detail. Total product revenue was $11.7 billion, up 20%. Service revenue was $3.6 billion, up 4%. Within product revenue, Secure Agile Networks, our largest product category, was very strong, up 33%. Switching revenue had double-digit growth with strength in both campus and data center switching driven by our Catalyst 9000, Nexus 9000 and Meraki offerings.

更詳細地了解我們第四季的收入。總產品收入為117億美元，成長20%。服務收入為36億美元，成長4%。在產品收入中，我們最大的產品類別安全敏捷網路表現非常強勁，成長了 33%。交換收入實現了兩位數成長，在 Catalyst 9000、Nexus 9000 和 Meraki 產品的推動下，校園和資料中心交換均表現強勁。

Enterprise routing decline driven primarily by access, partially offset by strength in our Catalyst 8000 Series, SD-WAN and IoT routing. Wireless had double-digit growth driven by our WiFi 6 products and Meraki wireless offerings.

企業路由的下滑主要受存取影響，但被 Catalyst 8000 系列、SD-WAN 和 IoT 路由的優勢部分抵銷。在我們的 WiFi 6 產品和 Meraki 無線產品的推動下，無線業務實現了兩位數的成長。

Internet for the Future was up 3% driven by growth in our core routing products, including strong growth in our Cisco 8000 offering. We also saw double-digit growth in web scale. Collaboration was down 12% driven by declines in collaboration devices and meetings, partially offset by growth in cloud calling and cloud contact center. End-to-end security was flat with growth in our Zero Trust offerings, offset by a decline in our network security offerings. And optimized application experiences was up 15% driven by growth across the portfolio, including double-digit growth in ThousandEyes and AppDynamics.

未來網際網路成長 3%，這得益於我們核心路由產品的成長，其中包括思科 8000 產品的強勁成長。我們也看到網路規模實現了兩位數的成長。由於協作設備和會議數量的下降，協作下降了 12%，但雲端呼叫和雲端聯絡中心的成長部分抵消了這一影響。端到端安全性與我們的零信任產品的成長持平，但網路安全產品的下降抵消了這一成長。優化的應用體驗成長了 15%，這得益於整個產品組合的成長，其中 ThousandEyes 和 AppDynamics 均實現了兩位數的成長。

We continue to make progress on the transformation of our business to more recurring revenue-based offerings driven by higher levels of software and subscriptions. We saw solid performance in our ARR of $24.3 billion, which increased 5% with product ARR growth of 10%. Total software revenue accelerated to $4.6 billion, an increase of 17% with software subscription revenue up 20%. 85% of our software revenue was subscription-based.

我們繼續在業務轉型方面取得進展，轉向由更高水準的軟體和訂閱推動的更多基於經常性收入的產品。我們的 ARR 表現穩健，達到 243 億美元，成長 5%，產品 ARR 成長 10%。總軟體營收加速至 46 億美元，成長 17%，其中軟體訂閱收入成長 20%。我們的軟體收入的85％是基於訂閱的。

Total subscription revenue was $6.6 billion, an increase of 13%. And RPO was $34.9 billion, up double digits at 11%. Both product and service RPO had strong growth with product RPO up 12% and service RPO up 9%. Total short-term RPO grew to $17.9 billion.

總訂閱收入為 66 億美元，成長 13%。 RPO 為 349 億美元，成長 11%，達到兩位數。產品和服務 RPO 均實現強勁成長，其中產品 RPO 成長 12%，服務 RPO 成長 9%。短期RPO總額成長至179億美元。

Total product orders were down 14% year-on-year but grew sequentially by more than 30%. This was against a strong performance in the year ago quarter, where we delivered the second-highest orders in absolute dollars in the history of the company. The aging of our backlog has continued to improve as the supply situation normalizes and as expected, increased customer deliveries reduced our year-end backlog to roughly double historical levels as we enter fiscal '24. Order cancellation rates remained below pre-pandemic levels, which reflects the true demand and criticality of our technologies to our customers.

總產品訂單年減 14%，但較上季成長 30% 以上。這與去年同期的強勁表現形成鮮明對比，當時我們交付了公司歷史上第二高的訂單（以絕對金額計算）。隨著供應情況的正常化，我們的積壓訂單老化情況繼續改善，正如預期的那樣，在進入24財年時，客戶交付量的增加使我們的年終積壓訂單減少到歷史水平的大約兩倍。訂單取消率仍低於疫情前的水平，這反映了客戶對我們的技術的真實需求和關鍵性。

Total non-GAAP gross margin came in at 65.9%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and up 260 basis points. Product gross margin was 65.5%, up 420 basis points. The increase was primarily driven by positive pricing and product mix as we realize the benefits from the actions we took in the prior fiscal year. We also drove productivity improvements with lower freight and logistics, component and other costs.

非公認會計準則總毛利率為 65.9%，超出我們的預期範圍高端，上漲了 260 個基點。產品毛利率為65.5%，上升420個基點。由於我們意識到上一財年採取的行動帶來的益處，這一增長主要得益於積極的定價和產品組合。我們也透過降低運費、物流、零件和其他成本來提高生產力。

Services gross margin was 67.5%, down 150 basis points year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating margin came in at 35.4%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and up 300 basis points. This improved leverage was driven by both our strong non-GAAP gross margin and ongoing cost management.

服務毛利率為67.5%，較去年同期下降150個基點。非公認會計準則營業利潤率為 35.4%，超出我們的預期範圍高端，上漲了 300 個基點。槓桿率的提高得益於我們強勁的非公認會計準則毛利率和持續的成本管理。

Shifting to the balance sheet. We ended Q4 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $26.1 billion. We had record operating cash flow for the quarter of $6 billion, up 62%, driven primarily by strong top line performance and the deferral of our Q4 federal tax payment. Consistent with our prior commentary, the IRS tax relief related to the California floods postponed our current year federal income tax payment until Q1 of our fiscal '24. Consequently, in Q1 of fiscal '24, our federal income tax-related cash outflows will include an incremental $2.8 billion of payments for these prior quarters.

轉向資產負債表。截至第四季度，我們的現金、現金等價物及投資總額為 261 億美元。本季我們的營運現金流達到創紀錄的 60 億美元，成長 62%，這主要得益於強勁的營收表現以及第四季聯邦稅的延期繳納。與我們先前的評論一致，與加州洪水相關的美國國稅局稅收減免將我們今年的聯邦所得稅繳納推遲到了 24 財年第一季。因此，在24財年第一季度，我們的聯邦所得稅相關現金流出將包括前幾季的增量28億美元支付。

This quarter, we returned $2.8 billion to shareholders, comprised of $1.6 billion for our quarterly cash dividend and $1.3 billion of share repurchases. Consistent with our capital allocation strategy that we outlined last quarter, we are committed to increasing shareholder returns through a greater operating leverage while increasing our annual share repurchases and growing our dividend.

本季度，我們向股東返還了 28 億美元，其中包括 16 億美元的季度現金股利和 13 億美元的股票回購。與我們上個季度概述的資本配置策略一致，我們致力於透過更大的經營槓桿來增加股東回報，同時增加年度股票回購量並增加股息。

Turning to the full fiscal year. We delivered record results in revenue, net income, earnings per share and operating cash flow. Revenue for the year was $57 billion, up 11%. And non-GAAP earnings per share was $3.89, up 16%, demonstrating again the operating leverage that we've been driving.

展望整個財政年度。我們在收入、淨收入、每股盈餘和經營現金流方面都取得了創紀錄的成績。全年營收為 570 億美元，成長 11%。非公認會計準則每股收益為 3.89 美元，成長 16%，再次證明了我們一直在推動的營運槓桿。

In terms of our software metrics, total software revenue for the full year was up 12% at $17 billion with the product portion up 14%. 84% of software revenue was subscription-based, which is up 2 percentage points. Total subscription revenue was $24.6 billion, an increase of 10%. Total non-GAAP gross margin was 64.5%, down 10 basis points. On the bottom line, non-GAAP net income was $16 billion, up 13%. We delivered record operating cash flow of $19.9 billion, up 50% compared to fiscal '22, driven primarily by strong results, linearity, collections and the federal tax deferral as noted previously.

就我們的軟體指標而言，全年軟體總收入成長 12%，達到 170 億美元，其中產品部分成長 14%。 84%的軟體收入是基於訂閱的，上升了2個百分點。總訂閱收入為246億美元，成長10%。非公認會計準則總毛利率為 64.5%，下降 10 個基點。整體而言，非 GAAP 淨收入為 160 億美元，成長 13%。我們實現了創紀錄的 199 億美元營運現金流，較 22 財年增長 50%，這主要得益於強勁的業績、線性、收款和前面提到的聯邦稅收遞延。

We returned $10.6 billion in value to our shareholders via cash dividends and stock repurchases. It is comprised of $6.3 billion in quarterly cash dividends and $4.3 billion of share repurchases. We increased our dividend for the 12th consecutive year in fiscal 2023, reinforcing our confidence in the strength and stability of our ongoing cash flows.

我們透過現金股利和股票回購向股東返還了 106 億美元的價值。其中包括 63 億美元的季度現金股利和 43 億美元的股票回購。我們在 2023 財年連續第 12 年增加股息，增強了我們對持續現金流實力和穩定性的信心。

We continued to invest organically and inorganically in our innovation pipeline during Q4. We closed the acquisitions of Lightspin Technologies, Smartlook and Armorblox. These investments are consistent with our strategy of complementing our internal innovation and R&D with targeted strategic M&A.

我們在第四季度繼續對創新管道進行有機和無機投資。我們完成了 Lightspin Technologies、Smartlook 和 Armorblox 的收購。這些投資符合我們透過有針對性的策略併購來補充內部創新和研發的策略。

To summarize, we had a very strong quarter and fiscal year with record results. We executed well, delivering double-digit top line growth, profitability and cash flow. We continue to make progress on our business model shift to more recurring revenue while making strategic investments and innovation to capitalize on our significant growth opportunities.

總而言之，我們本季和本財年表現非常強勁，取得了創紀錄的業績。我們表現良好，實現了兩位數的營收成長、獲利能力和現金流。我們繼續在業務模式轉向更多經常性收入方面取得進展，同時進行策略性投資和創新，以利用我們巨大的成長機會。

Turning now to our guidance. For fiscal Q1, our guidance is we expect revenue to be in the range of $14.5 billion to $14.7 billion. We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 65% to 66%. Our non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 34% to 35%. And non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $1.02 to $1.04.

現在來談談我們的指導。對於第一財季，我們預計營收將在 145 億美元至 147 億美元之間。我們預計非公認會計準則毛利率在 65% 至 66% 之間。我們的非公認會計準則營業利潤率預計在 34% 至 35% 之間。非公認會計準則每股收益預計在 1.02 美元至 1.04 美元之間。

For fiscal year '24, our guidance is as follows. We expect revenue to be in the range of $57 billion to $58.2 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $4.01 to $4.08. In both our Q1 and full year guidance, we're assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 19%.

對於24財年，我們的指導如下。我們預計營收在 570 億美元至 582 億美元之間。預計非公認會計準則每股收益在 4.01 美元至 4.08 美元之間。在我們的第一季和全年指引中，我們都假設非 GAAP 有效稅率為 19%。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

現在我將話題轉回瑪麗蓮，以便我們進入問答環節。

Thanks, Scott. Michelle, let's go ahead and queue up for questions.

謝謝，斯科特。米歇爾，我們繼續排隊提問。

Tim Long with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的提姆朗。

Chuck, maybe we'll start with kind of the order backlog performance. Sounds a lot better than seasonal in Q4. Could you talk a little bit about what you attribute that to? And then maybe looking into next year, it doesn't look like you're baking a lot of that into either Q1 or the full year. So what's kind of the expectation for kind of the pull-through of those orders into what you're going to see in revenues in fiscal '24?

查克，也許我們應該從訂單積壓表現開始。聽起來比第四季的季節性好多了。你能稍微談談這背後的原因嗎？然後也許展望明年，看起來你似乎不會將很多內容計入第一季或全年。那麼，對於這些訂單對 24 財年營收的影響，您有何預期？

Thanks, Tim. So I'll provide some color. And Scott, maybe you can talk about the conversion of the orders. Look, first of all, we're obviously dealing in a world that has a lot of dynamics right now, but our teams executed incredibly well. As I've said on prior calls, with our sales organization, when you see transitions in sort of customer buying, if it's getting worse, what we see is that our teams will forecast a quarter and then by the end of the quarter, they would have dropped and/or missed.

謝謝，蒂姆。因此我會提供一些顏色。斯科特，也許您可以談論訂單的轉換。首先，我們顯然正在應對一個充滿動態的世界，但我們的團隊表現得非常好。正如我在之前的電話會議中所說的那樣，在我們的銷售部門，當你看到客戶購買的轉變時，如果情況變得更糟，我們看到的是，我們的團隊將預測一個季度，然後在該季度末，他們將會掉落或錯過。

And then when it's beginning to stabilize and get better, they tend to actually exceed the forecast. And so what we saw in Q4 was they had their opening forecast. They nailed month 1, they nailed month 2, and they exceeded month 3 by several hundred million dollars. So it was one of those quarters that they actually overperformed what they thought they would do at the beginning of the quarter, which is a positive sign. But again, it's one quarter.

當情況開始穩定並好轉時，它們實際上往往會超出預測。因此我們在第四季看到他們有自己的開業預測。他們第一個月就取得了成功，第二個月也取得了成功，第三個月又超出了數億美元。因此，在這個季度中，他們的業績實際上超出了他們在本季度初的預期，這是一個積極的信號。但同樣，這只是四分之一。

We also had the largest quarter in our history of enterprise software agreements from an orders perspective. So we had a lot of big customers making big commitments, which was a positive thing. The -- if you think about what was going on around the world, I'd say service provider just continued to be weak. Enterprise improved, commercial improved. U.S. enterprise was basically flat. So that was better than we had been experiencing for sure, which is a good sign. Public sector remains steady. And verticals, we saw strength in financial services, transportation and energy. And we saw some good strength in countries like India and Saudi around the world.

從訂單角度來看，這也是我們史上企業軟體協議數量最多的季度。因此，我們有很多大客戶做出了重大承諾，這是一件好事。如果您想想世界各地正在發生的事情，我會說服務提供者仍然很弱。企業進步，商業進步。美國企業基本持平。所以這肯定比我們之前經歷的要好，這是一個好兆頭。公共部門保持穩定。在垂直領域，我們看到了金融服務、運輸和能源領域的優勢。我們看到，印度和沙烏地阿拉伯等國家也展現了良好的實力。

So it's one quarter, but if you compare it to the prior few quarters where the teams had opening forecast that they generally missed by the time we got to the end of the quarter, this was one where I'd say that it was much more stable as we went through the quarter.

所以這只是一個季度，但如果你把它與前幾季進行比較，你會發現，到季度末時，各支球隊的開盤預測通常都與預期不符，而今年的情況則要好得多。隨著本季的進展，我們保持了穩定。

Scott, do you want to talk about the order conversion?

史考特，你想談談訂單轉換嗎？

Yes. As we think about fiscal '24, we've got pretty good visibility driven by really the business model shift that we've talked about. So a couple of data points that I think you already have, Tim. One is current RPO of $17.9 billion. So total RPO approaching $35 billion, of which $17.9 billion is current, meaning it turns into revenue in the next 12 months.

是的。當我們思考24財年時，我們獲得了相當好的可見性，這實際上是由我們所談論的商業模式轉變所推動的。所以我認為你已經掌握了幾個數據點，提姆。一是目前的RPO為179億美元。因此，總 RPO 接近 350 億美元，其中 179 億美元是當前的，這意味著它將在未來 12 個月內轉化為收入。

We ended the year as we expected with roughly double our normal backlog levels. But that excess backlog will work down in the first half of fiscal '24 with the majority of that being worked off in Q1, by the way. And we've got $24.3 billion of ARR that we get a chance to renew. Now obviously, some of that will already be captured in RPO, but there's opportunity that's not already captured in RPO as well. So we entered the year with round numbers, 40% of that top line pretty much already in hand between those 3 categories. So feel good about the way we see the year laying out.

正如我們預期的那樣，我們以大約正常積壓水平的兩倍結束了這一年度。但順便說一下，這些過剩的積壓訂單將在 24 財年上半年減少，其中大部分將在第一季解決。我們有 243 億美元的 ARR 有機會更新。顯然，其中一些已經在 RPO 中捕獲，但也有一些機會尚未在 RPO 中捕獲。因此，我們以整數進入了今年，這三個類別的營收已經佔了總營收的 40%。因此，我們對今年的規劃感到十分樂觀。

Yes. If I could make one more comment, Tim. On the sequentials, we said given that the year-over-years are just sort of difficult to -- they don't really provide a clear view on what's going on. We've been talking about sequentials a fair amount. And I did say in my opening comments that sequentials from Q3 to Q4 were in excess of 30%.

是的。如果我可以再發表一點評論的話，提姆。關於連續性，我們說過，鑑於同比數據有點難以理解，它們並不能真正清楚地表明正在發生的事情。我們已經對序列進行了相當多的討論。我在開場白中確實說過，第三季到第四季的連續成長超過了 30%。

To put that in perspective, it's typically 18% to 20%. And from a customer segment perspective, enterprise was well above that, public sector was well above it. Commercial was pretty close to it, and service provider was the low one. However, it was still above historical trends on a sequential basis. So just to try to give you as much color as we can.

從這個角度來看，通常為 18% 到 20%。從客戶細分的角度來看，企業遠高於這個數字，公共部門也遠高於這個數字。商業相當接近，而服務提供者則較低。然而，以連續計算，它仍然高於歷史趨勢。因此我們只是想盡力為您提供盡可能多的信息。

Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Congrats on a nice set of numbers here. I guess maybe 2 things I'd love to get your perspective on. Chuck, when you talk about consistency in capital allocation, can you just expand a bit more on what does that mean? Are you going to think about this as a percent of free cash flow that you're going to go for buybacks or some other metric? Can you just talk about what does that mean? And how do you intend to deploy the capital allocation would be helpful.

恭喜您取得了一組不錯的成績。我想也許有兩件事我很想聽聽你的看法。查克，當你談到資本配置的一致性時，你能否進一步解釋一下這是什麼意思？您是否會將其視為用於回購或其他指標的自由現金流的百分比？你能談談這是什麼意思嗎？而您打算如何部署資本配置將會很有幫助。

And then perhaps somewhat maybe related to that, I guess, when we think about the fiscal '24 revenue guide that you folks are providing, 7% growth in Q1, I think, 1% for the full year. That sort of would imply back half will decline. So what are you assuming in the back half that gives you that kind of (inaudible) that would be helpful.

然後也許與此有些相關，我想，當我們考慮你們提供的 24 財年收入指南時，第一季增長 7%，我認為全年增長 1%。這就意味著後半部將會下降。那麼您在後半部分假設什麼會為您帶來這種（聽不清楚）幫助。

Let me make some -- just a couple of comments, and I'm going to hand it to Scott and let him answer probably both of these. On the capital allocation and the leverage comments, what I would say is that we've spent a lot of time talking to our shareholders over the last few months. And it's clearly important to our shareholders that we commit to and we deliver on operating leverage in our P&L, and we've been doing it, but we haven't committed to it for long term. So that's what we're basically doing today is saying that we are going to continue to commit to do -- to provide operating leverage in the P&L as we look to the future.

讓我發表一些意見，然後我將把它交給斯科特，讓他回答這兩個問題。關於資本配置和槓桿的評論，我想說的是，過去幾個月我們花了很多時間與股東交談。對我們的股東來說，我們承諾並實現損益表中的經營槓桿顯然很重要，我們也一直在這樣做，但我們還沒有長期致力於此。所以，我們今天基本上是在說，我們將繼續致力於在未來的損益表中提供營運槓桿。

And then on the buybacks, we had also increased -- there are 2 things we wanted to do was increase the amount as well as drive more consistency and predictability for our shareholders. And so the rate, as I said, that we've been running at like the last 3 quarters is sort of the target that we would be at on a quarterly basis as we go forward.

在回購方面，我們也增加了——我們想做的有兩件事：增加金額以及為股東帶來更多的一致性和可預測性。因此，正如我所說，我們過去三個季度的運行速度是我們未來每季要達到的目標。

Scott, do you want to add to that and then talk about the revenue guide?

史考特，你想補充這一點然後談談收入指南嗎？

Yes, will do. And Amit, I think you were one of those voices that talked about cap allocation consistently at a higher level and also being consistent. And what you've seen over the last 3 quarters is that share buyback has been very consistent at $1.25 billion -- right around $1.25 billion per quarter. We see that continuing into the future. That's $5 billion a year in share buybacks. The dividend right now runs (inaudible) $6.5 billion. So you add those 2 together, that's $11.5 billion of capital return to shareholders.

是的，我會的。阿米特，我認為您是那些在更高層次上持續討論上限分配並且保持一致的人之一。過去 3 個季度我們看到的是，股票回購金額一直穩定在 12.5 億美元左右——每季約 12.5 億美元。我們認為這種情況將持續到未來。這意味著每年的股票回購金額達 50 億美元。目前的股息為（聽不清楚）65 億美元。將這兩項加在一起，就是 115 億美元的股東資本回報。

It doesn't feel like it's in a bad place, but responding to need to be both elevated and more consistent in share buybacks is what you're hearing. You've seen us do it already. The difference is we're verbalizing it in advance now, I guess.

看起來情況並不糟糕，但你聽到的是，股票回購需要更高水準和更持續性地進行。您已看到我們這樣做了。我想，不同之處在於我們現在正在提前口頭表達出來。

And on your revenue guide question, I think it's easy to get a little confused by the year-on-year growth rates when we've had the supply constraints that we've had over the last few years. I mean the reality is some of the revenue that we ended up posting this year in fiscal '23, are orders that we took and customers wanted the product back in fiscal '22. We just couldn't get it out. We couldn't get it delivered because of the supply constraints.

關於您的收入指南問題，我認為，由於過去幾年我們面臨供應限制，因此同比增長率很容易讓人感到困惑。我的意思是，事實上，我們最終在 23 財年公佈的部分收入是我們在 22 財年接到的訂單以及客戶希望退回的產品。我們就是沒辦法把它弄出來。由於供應限制，我們無法交貨。

So the better way to think about this is what's been the compound annual growth rate from when we started building that backlog and the supply constraints set in, which was the end of our fiscal '21 through -- and I'll just pick the midpoint of our guide for fiscal '24. If you do the compound annual growth rate on revenue through that time, it's right around 5%, which is, as you know, in line with what we see as our opportunity longer term.

因此，更好的思考方式是，從我們開始建立積壓訂單和供應限制開始，到 2021 財年末，複合年增長率是多少——我只選中間值我們的 24 財年指南。如果您計算一下這段時間的收入複合年增長率，它就在 5% 左右，正如您所知，這與我們看到的長期機會一致。

So I think it's a little bit tough to track what's happening when you just rely on year-on-years because the year-on-years have just been so skewed by the supply chain. If you step back from it and look at endpoint to endpoint, that growth rate feels pretty good.

因此，我認為，如果僅僅依靠同比數據，追蹤實際發生的情況會有些困難，因為同比數據已經受到供應鏈的嚴重扭曲。如果你退一步思考，從一個端點到另一個端點，你會發現這個成長率相當不錯。

No, that 3-year CAGR is really helpful.

不，3 年複合年增長率確實很有幫助。

Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Meta Marshall。

Fantastic kind of data points around the traction with the hyperscalers. When it comes to kind of the $0.5 billion of orders you noted or even kind of the 800-gig trials, is that with Scheduled Fabric? Is that with Silicon One? Just kind of trying to get a sense of what piece of the portfolio that is.

關於超大規模器的牽引力的奇妙的數據點。說到您所提到的 5 億美元訂單，甚至 800Gig 的試驗，是否與 Scheduled Fabric 有關？那是 Silicon One 嗎？只是想了解這屬於投資組合的哪一部分。

And then just on the Security portfolio, clearly, you're rolling out a new -- a lot of new products, changing some of the sales approaches. Just when do you think we could see an inflection in that business?

然後僅在安全產品組合上，顯然您正在推出許多新產品，改變一些銷售方式。您認為何時我們才能看到該業務的轉捩點？

Yes, Meta, thank you. So on the Ethernet underneath the AI GPU networks, it is Silicon One for sure. And I think for the next 12 months or so, I think we'll be doing trials. I think we'll have some opportunities, but there'll still be a lot of InfiniBand. And that's why we joined as a founding member of this Ultra Ethernet coalition so that we can guide the standards and really deliver Scheduled Fabric, to your point, in a very effective way. So we think into FY '25 and beyond, this thing will begin to shift to more of an Ethernet-based infrastructure.

是的，Meta，謝謝你。因此，在 AI GPU 網路下方的乙太網路上，肯定是 Silicon One。我認為在接下來的 12 個月左右我們會進行試驗。我認為我們會有一些機會，但仍然會有很多 InfiniBand。這就是我們加入超級乙太網路聯盟並成為創始成員的原因，這樣我們就可以指導標準，並以非常有效的方式真正實現預定結構。因此，我們認為，到 25 財年及以後，這一領域將開始轉向更多基於乙太網路的基礎設施。

On the Security front, yes, we've had some early traction. I mentioned Goldman in the multi-cloud defense, which is a great sign of confidence in that solution. If you look at our XDR platform, which, candidly, we just went (inaudible) right at the end of the quarter. And we already took a 7-figure order from a retailer in Europe. So that was positive.

在安全方面，是的，我們已經取得了一些早期的進展。我在多雲防禦中提到了高盛，這是對該解決方案充滿信心的良好表現。如果你看一下我們的 XDR 平台，坦白說，我們在本季末剛推出（聽不清楚）。我們已經從歐洲的一家零售商那裡接到了一份七位數的訂單。這是積極的。

We took one of our largest security orders ever. We took an 8-figure security order from a Fortune 10 company in Q4. So there's some early green shoots, and the teams are executing. The early feedback and early commentary from analysts and customers, et cetera, is positive, but we've got to actually deliver on it. And hopefully, in the second half of this year, we'll see some real positive impact and in '25 for sure.

我們承接了迄今為止最大的安全訂單之一。我們在第四季從一家財富 10 強公司獲得了一筆 8 位數的安全訂單。因此，已經出現了一些早期的綠芽，而各個團隊正在執行。來自分析師、客戶等的早期回饋和早期評論都是正面的，但我們必須真正實現它。希望在今年下半年，我們能看到一些真正的正面影響，在 2025 年肯定是如此。

Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Michael Ng。

I just have 2. First, it was encouraging to hear about the share gains on campus switching, SP routing and wireless as well as the expectation to continue to grow share. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the sales execution, the product road map there that gives you the most confidence in that continued share growth.

我只有 2 個。我只是想知道您是否可以談談銷售執行情況，以及產品路線圖，這些讓您對持續的份額成長最有信心。

And then second, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about your expectations as it relates to the trajectory of orders going forward. It sounds like if the backlog kind of gets back to normal levels in the first quarter, you should just grow along with revenue growth as we think about order growth beyond the first quarter, but just would love your thoughts there.

其次，我想知道您是否可以談談您對未來訂單走勢的預期。聽起來，如果積壓訂單在第一季恢復到正常水平，那麼當我們考慮第一季以後的訂單成長時，您的收入就應該會隨之增長，但我們很想聽聽您的想法。

Thanks, Michael. On the share gains in the enterprise networking space, which is what you're asking about, we expect Q2 will be equal to or maybe slightly above the incremental gains that we see when those numbers come out based on some estimates that we have done internally.

謝謝，麥可。關於您所問的企業網路領域的份額增長，我們預計第二季度的增量將等於或略高於我們在這些數字公佈時看到的增量，這是基於我們內部進行的一些估計。

I would say the thing that is really helping beyond being great products, but we have done a couple of things. Number one, we have begun to deliver on monitoring and then subsequent management of our Catalyst -- the traditional Catalyst portfolio with the Meraki dashboard. And that's a real advantage for customers. It allows them to run a hybrid of the 2 portfolios. It allows them to have visibility from one dashboard to both sets of portfolios. And so that's been really well received. It has been a key driver in significant improvement in our renewal rates on the software side.

我想說，除了提供優質的產品之外，真正有幫助的是我們還做了一些事情。首先，我們已經開始對 Catalyst（具有 Meraki 儀表板的傳統 Catalyst 產品組合）進行監控並進行後續管理。這對客戶來說是一個真正的優勢。這允許他們混合管理這兩種投資組合。它使他們能夠從一個儀表板查看兩組投資組合。因此，這項舉措確實受到了熱烈歡迎。它是我們軟體更新率大幅提升的關鍵驅動因素。

And while I'm talking about it, I thought I would share one milestone with you. I've been asked for a few years, when do we think the software renewals in the enterprise networking space would be meaningful. And FY '24 is the first year, I think, it will be meaningful.

當我談論這個主題時，我想與你們分享一個里程碑。幾年來我一直被問到這個問題，我們認為企業網路領域的軟體更新何時才會有意義。我認為，24 財年是第一年，它將具有重大的意義。

So just to give you a perspective on it. We expect this year to renew enterprise networking software at close to $1 billion. So the transition that we've been going through for all these years is going to hopefully begin to start to pay solid benefits for us going forward. But that's what's going on in that portfolio.

只是為了給你一個視角。我們預計今年企業網路軟體的更新費用將接近 10 億美元。因此，我們希望這些年來所經歷的轉型能開始為我們未來帶來實質的利益。但這正是該投資組合中正在發生的情況。

Scott, you want to talk about...

史考特，你想談談…

Trajectory of orders, yes. And Michael, thanks for that question. What I'd say is, if you remember our commentary from the last call, we said there were kind of 3 things going on inside product orders. One was the lead times were normalizing, going from being fairly lengthy to going back to a normal level, which, of course, if the lead time yesterday was 30 weeks and today it's 10 weeks, means you don't have to place another order for 20 weeks. Those are mostly normalized. They will finish being normalized certainly in the first half of fiscal '24. And so that effect will be dampened.

訂單軌跡，是的。邁克爾，謝謝你的提問。我想說的是，如果您還記得我們上次通話中的評論，我們說過產品訂單內部發生了三件事。一是交貨週期正在正常化，從相當長的時間回到正常水平，當然，如果昨天的交貨週期是 30 週，而今天是 10 週，這意味著你不必再下訂單持續20週。這些大多都已正常化。它們肯定會在24財年上半年完成正常化。因此這種影響將會被削弱。

The second is backlog. And as we were still sitting on excess backlog, and we still do, but we've obviously been working our way through that and delivering product to customers. As we get their backlog orders in their hands, they can complete that project and then place the order for the next project. And so that's also been a little bit of a headwind to bookings, and then it's whatever is happening in the macro would be the third factor.

二是積壓問題。由於我們仍有過多的積壓訂單，而且這種情況仍然存在，但我們顯然一直在努力解決這個問題並向客戶交付產品。當我們收到他們的積壓訂單時，他們可以完成該項目，然後下訂單進行下一個項目。所以這對預訂也造成了一點阻力，然後宏觀上發生的一切將成為第三個因素。

We think those first 2 will normalize in the first half of fiscal '24. Lead times will be normalized, certainly by the time we get to the end of the first half and much of the backlog -- the excess backlog will ship out during the first quarter of fiscal '24. So I think we'll have a clearer view, and I expect to see more normal ordering patterns. Of course, we don't guide orders, but I expect to see more normal ordering patterns in the second half of the year.

我們認為前兩個因素將在24財年上半年恢復正常。到上半年末時，交貨時間肯定會正常化，大部分積壓訂單——多餘的積壓訂單將在24財年第一季發貨。因此我認為我們會有一個更清晰的認識，我希望看到更正常的排序模式。當然，我們不指導訂單，但我預計下半年會看到更正常的訂購模式。

Ittai Kidron with Oppenheimer.

伊泰·基德倫 (Ittai Kidron) 和奧本海默 (Oppenheimer)。

Chuck, maybe you could talk about the RPO. Very strong performance there, especially when you look at the same metric a year ago. Maybe you can unpack this a little bit in the context of a few metrics, meaning duration of contracts the customers are willing to go into now, size of deals that are willing to move into now. I'm just trying to kind of get a little bit into the elements of this significant increase in RPO.

查克，也許你可以談談 RPO。那裡的表現非常強勁，尤其是當你看到一年前相同的指標時。也許您可以從幾個指標的角度來稍微解釋一下這個問題，這些指標包括客戶現在願意簽訂的合約期限、客戶現在願意簽訂的交易規模。我只是想稍微了解一下 RPO 顯著增加的因素。

Yes. Thanks, Ittai. I'll give you a little color and then I'll let Scott comment again, too. A lot of this is -- we've made this transition to -- virtually our entire enterprise networking portfolio now is a subscription model. And so that contributes. And Scott can talk about the year-over-year contribution that we've seen.

是的。謝謝，Ittai。我會給你一點顏色看看，然後我也讓史考特再評論一下。其中很多是——我們已經實現了這種轉變——實際上我們整個企業網路產品組合現在都是訂閱模式。這有幫助。斯科特可以談談我們看到的逐年貢獻。

But I mean we have $35 billion in RPO. And I think it's an important thing because when you think about market share and some of the concerns that people have had, you have to remember that we put a reasonable amount of each order in our core networking portfolio on the enterprise side goes into RPO and doesn't get reported as revenue. It's ratable. So it's a headwind to market share.

但我的意思是我們在 RPO 上有 350 億美元。我認為這是一件重要的事情，因為當你考慮市場份額和人們的一些擔憂時，你必須記住，我們在企業方面的核心網絡產品組合中投入了合理的每筆訂單，用於 RPO 和沒有被報告為收入。它是可評級的。因此，這對市場份額來說是一個阻力。

And the other thing that I would point out is that we had a record year at 50 -- almost $57 billion at a time where we were building RPO to $35 billion and we have the backlog that we have. So there, we've had a lot of solid customer demand.

我想指出的另一件事是，我們在50 歲時創下了創紀錄的一年——當時我們的RPO 金額接近570 億美元，而我們的RPO 金額正在增加到350 億美元，而且我們還有積壓訂單。因此，我們擁有大量穩定的客戶需求。

I'd say in Q4, we certainly saw a fair amount of the enterprise networking. As we ship those products, we saw that software come out of backlog as we've talked about and moved into RPO. We saw a lot of these enterprise agreements that we did with our customers in enterprise contributed to it as well. Those were reasonably large deals.

我想說在第四季度，我們確實看到了相當數量的企業網絡。當我們運送這些產品時，我們看到軟體已經從我們所討論的積壓中恢復並進入 RPO。我們看到，我們與企業客戶達成的許多企業協議也對此做出了貢獻。這些都是相當大的交易。

And Scott, I'll let you comment anything -- any more you want to comment on.

史考特，我讓你對任何你想評論的事情發表意見。

Yes. You specifically asked about duration. There's not much change in duration overall, Ittai. So that's not it. Q4 typically is a quarter where we have more large multiyear transactions. We talk about enterprise agreements and whole portfolio agreements. And so you typically will see a little bit of a bump in Q4 driven by that and then a little bit of a -- I'm sorry, an RPO in Q4. And then in Q1, the typically -- the typical pattern would see it come down just slightly as we work our way through those.

是的。您特別詢問了持續時間。總體而言，持續時間沒有太大變化，Ittai。事實並非如此。第四季通常是我們有更多大型多年期交易的季度。我們討論企業協議和整個投資組合協議。因此，您通常會看到在第四季度會出現一點點波動，這是由這個因素推動的，然後是一點點——抱歉，第四季度會出現 RPO。然後在第一季度，隨著我們不斷努力，典型的模式是看到它略微下降。

I think the other thing to just bear in mind, we've got net RPO growth this year of $3.3 billion, of which product had a net growth of $1.7 billion. If you looked at our current RPO when we began the year, it was about $16.8 billion, which means all of that came out of RPO. And yet on top of that -- yes, short term. On top of that, we added $1.7 billion. So we added quite a bit of current year sales into that RPO balance.

我認為需要記住的另一件事是，今年我們的淨 RPO 成長了 33 億美元，其中產品淨成長了 17 億美元。如果您查看我們今年年初的當前 RPO，它約為 168 億美元，這意味著所有這些都來自 RPO。但最重要的是--是的，這是短期的。除此之外，我們還增加了 17 億美元。因此我們將相當一部分當年的銷售額加到了 RPO 餘額中。

Back to Chuck's point, that's revenue that many of our competitors recognize immediately as they ship it. For us, we have the advantage of recognizing it over time, which makes us more predictable, and it gives us greater visibility into where things are headed.

回到查克的觀點，這是我們的許多競爭對手在出貨時立即確認的收入。對我們來說，我們的優勢在於能夠隨著時間的推移逐漸認識到這一點，這使我們變得更加可預測，並且讓我們能夠更好地了解事態的發展方向。

Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Matthew Niknam。

Two-parter, if I could. First, as we think about fiscal '24, so you're forecasting 1% top line growth and about 4% non-GAAP EPS growth with a fairly strong exit rate on gross margin. So is it fair to assume the lift from gross margins may get offset somewhat by some OpEx reinvestment? Just trying to think about the puts and takes there.

如果可以的話，我會拍兩個部分。首先，當我們考慮 24 財年時，您預測營收成長 1%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長約 4%，且毛利率退出率相當強勁。那麼，是否可以合理地假設，毛利率的提升可能會被部分營運支出的再投資所抵銷呢？只是想思考那裡的情況。

And then broadly, at the Analyst Day a couple of years ago, I think, Scott, you laid out a 5% to 7% target for both top and bottom line. I'm just wondering if that's evolved at all in light of some of the greater emphasis on operating leverage that you're talking about today.

總體而言，史考特，我想，在幾年前的分析師日上，您為營收和利潤設定了 5% 到 7% 的目標。我只是想知道，考慮到您今天談到的對經營槓桿的更多重視，這種情況是否有所發展。

Yes. Matt, on your first question, I think gross margin is settling, you saw our guide for Q1 of gross margins in the 65% to 66% range. And I think it settles in there for the full year. So you can do the math with what we've projected on the top line. That drops down to a mid-single-digit OpEx growth number, so in line with expectations certainly given the environment of merit increases. It doesn't provide a lot of incremental investment, but I think that's in sync with what you've seen us do over time.

是的。馬特，關於您的第一個問題，我認為毛利率正在穩定下來，您看到我們第一季的毛利率指南在 65％ 至 66％ 之間。我認為它將在那裡穩定一整年。因此，您可以根據我們對頂線的預測進行計算。這一數字下降至中等個位數的營運支出成長，因此在績效加薪的環境下，這肯定符合預期。它沒有提供大量的增量投資，但我認為這與您長期以來看到的我們所做的是同步的。

So the long-term model, look, that was opportunity-based. If you look backwards, what you've seen is we have delivered the bottom line growing faster than the top line. I think the only difference that you hear from us now is, as I said, we're articulating it in advance instead of once it's happened. That's really the way to think about that.

所以長期模型是基於機會的。如果回顧過去，就會發現我們的獲利成長速度快於獲利成長速度。我認為您現在從我們這裡聽到的唯一區別是，正如我所說的，我們是在提前表達，而不是在事情發生後才表達。這確實是正確的思考方式。

Jim Fish with Piper Sandler.

吉姆·菲什和派珀·桑德勒。

Maybe just diving in on the go-to-market side. We're hearing you guys are looking to move more of the specialist sales teams out and more towards kind of a cross-sell more portfolio kind of motion. Are you doing a larger sales restructuring right now? And is there anything you can do to better package solutions across these multiple segments, especially on the growth segments that are kind of struggling here, as Meta kind of pointed out earlier, with even security.

或許只是深入研究行銷方面。我們聽說你們正在考慮將更多的專業銷售團隊轉移出去，更多地轉向交叉銷售、更多投資組合之類的舉措。您現在正在進行更大規模的銷售重組嗎？你能做些什麼來更好地為這些多個細分市場提供解決方案，特別是針對那些正在苦苦掙扎的成長細分市場，就像 Meta 之前指出的那樣，甚至是安全性方面。

And lastly, on the capital return side. I know you guys get asked about the technology, but -- and you talked about potential being strategic and all of that. But how do you feel about the push versus pull of either further acquisitions in either of the key growth segments that you outlined, Chuck, versus possibly even spinning off some of those segments like some of the larger companies you're starting to see do?

最後，關於資本回報方面。我知道你們被問到技術問題，但是──你們談到了潛在的策略性等等。但是查克，對於您所概述的關鍵成長領域中進一步收購的推動與拉動，以及像您開始看到的一些大公司那樣甚至可能剝離其中一些領域，您有何看法？

Thanks, Jim. That was a lot. Let me tell you a little bit of the history on the specialist model. I'll tell you what we're doing in the product portfolio, which allows us to clean up the specialist model a little bit and get them a little more focused.

謝謝，吉姆。那真是太多了。讓我來跟你講一下專家模型的歷史。我會告訴你我們在產品組合中所做的工作，這使我們能夠稍微清理一下專家模型並使其更加專注。

So historically, like -- let's use Security as an example. We've had these different products, and we've sold them all individually. And therefore, you need to compete with those individual competitors. So you need subspecialists, you need specialists in every little area of security. And what we've been doing across the portfolio is moving to more of a platform approach. And so it makes it easier to sell.

從歷史上看，讓我們以安全為例。我們有這些不同的產品，並且都單獨出售。因此，你需要與這些個體競爭對手競爭。所以你需要專科醫生，你需要安全每個小領域的專家。我們在整個投資組合中所做的努力正在轉向更多的平台化方法。因此它更容易銷售。

And in certain areas of our portfolio like collaboration and security, we've moved to a suite strategy. So we're now packaging up the Security portfolio in different suites, which allows for us to sort of optimize the security specialist or actually align them more effectively is probably the best way to say it. And so that's the work that's been going on.

在我們投資組合的某些領域，例如協作和安全，我們已經轉向套件策略。因此，我們現在將安全產品組合打包成不同的套件，這使我們能夠優化安全專家，或者實際上更有效地協調他們，這可能是最好的說法。這就是目前正在進行的工作。

And I think as we continue to execute on this platform strategy, it certainly simplifies the selling cycle for some of these technologies and I think getting to the suites. We've seen it work in collab. This past quarter, we had very strong order growth in collaboration. We had positive order growth in Security as well. And so for collab to be showing positive order growth is really a byproduct of the suites and leading with calling as the lead part of the suite and then also a big focus on cloud contact center, which grew triple digits last quarter from an orders perspective.

我認為，隨著我們繼續執行這項平台策略，它肯定會簡化其中一些技術的銷售週期，並有助於簡化套件的開發。我們已經看到它在合作中發揮作用。上個季度，我們的合作訂單成長非常強勁。我們在安全領域的訂單也取得了積極的成長。因此，對於collab 來說，顯示出積極的訂單增長實際上是套件的副產品，並且以呼叫作為套件的主要部分，然後也是對雲聯絡中心的重點關注，從訂單角度來看，上個季度雲聯絡中心增長了三位數。

So those are the things that we're trying to do. We're trying to get the portfolio put together in a way that makes it easier and requires fewer subspecialists in the field as we move forward. Scott?

這些就是我們正在嘗試做的事情。我們正在嘗試以一種更簡單的方式來整合投資組合，並且在我們前進的過程中需要更少的該領域的專家。史考特？

On the cap return question, Jim, I'd just reiterate what I said earlier. With the consistency of buybacks now running right around $1.25 billion per quarter, so $5 billion a year, the dividend consumes another $6.5 billion. That's $11.5 billion of cap return that they were committed to. And I do expect to continue to, as you've seen us do for the last 12 years, make increases in our dividend payment as you look ahead. So that's one lens on it.

關於上限回報問題，吉姆，我只是想重申我之前所說的話。目前回購金額穩定在每季 12.5 億美元左右，也就是每年 50 億美元，而股利又會消耗 65 億美元。他們承諾實現 115 億美元的資本回報。我確實希望繼續增加股息，正如大家在過去 12 年中看到的那樣。這就是其中一個鏡頭。

I would say on the M&A and spin-off part of that, we're constantly evaluating that. We're constantly evaluating what's available in the marketplace. You saw we closed 3, albeit small kind of tech tuck-in, but 3 acquisitions during the quarter. The team's very active. We're constantly looking at that space as well as the value in our own portfolio. And so there's nothing new to report there, but those are constant things that we look at.

我想說，對於併購和分拆部分，我們正在不斷評估。我們不斷評估市場上現有的產品。您會看到，我們在本季完成了 3 項收購，儘管是規模較小的技術收購。該團隊非常活躍。我們一直在關注該領域以及我們自己投資組合的價值。因此，這裡沒有什麼新消息要報告，但這些都是我們不斷關注的事情。

Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.

Ben Reitzes 的 Melius Research。

I wanted to double-click on an earlier question with regard to hyperscalers, the $500 million in AI orders you had a briefing in June. I was wondering, have things picked up in terms of activity there? It seems like maybe it has. And I wanted to see if there's further traction that you could articulate in Silicon One. Like what kind of activity are you seeing there? And how big a business can this be?

我想再次詢問有關超大規模資料中心的先前問題，即您在 6 月簡報中提到的 5 億美元 AI 訂單。我想知道那裡的活動是否有改善？看起來似乎是這樣的。我想看看您是否可以在 Silicon One 中闡明更多吸引力。您在那裡看到什麼樣的活動？這能是多大的生意？

Yes. Well, Ben, welcome, and thank you for the question. We have definitely seen traction in the space. Lots of discussions, lots of architectural discussions, lots of input from those customers on what they'd like to see in the next generation of silicon as an example. And the teams are off building that we just delivered in June. As I said earlier, the next-generation ASIC that actually is built for this, but there's going to be more and more purpose-built silicon over the next couple of years. And the teams are working on that. And those customers are having a great deal of input in how that silicon gets designed.

是的。嗯，本，歡迎你，謝謝你的提問。我們確實看到了該領域的發展動力。例如，我們進行了大量的討論，進行了大量的架構討論，並聽取了客戶關於他們希望在下一代矽片中看到什麼的意見。目前，各團隊已開始建造我們六月剛交付的大樓。正如我之前所說，下一代 ASIC 實際上是為此而建造的，但未來幾年將會出現越來越多的專用矽片。各個團隊正在為此努力。這些客戶對於矽片的設計提出了大量的意見。

And in some cases, it's unique to each one. And so that's the beauty of us having such an advanced silicon capability. It allows us, if we need to, to actually build unique silicon by customer because these opportunities are so large.

在某些情況下，每個人都是獨一無二的。這就是我們擁有如此先進的矽能力的魅力所在。如果需要的話，它允許我們根據客戶需求建立獨特的矽片，因為這些機會太大了。

In the last call, we talked about the fact that this would probably be 3 to 4x the opportunity size of the original cloud build-out. And unfortunately for us, as it's been well documented, we missed the original cloud build-out. But I can say with every bit of confidence right now that as we go through this AI transition to Ethernet, we are super well positioned. We have incredible silicon that they have been using in other parts of their portfolio.

在上次通話中，我們談到這個事實，這可能是原始雲端建置機會規模的 3 到 4 倍。不幸的是，正如有據可查的那樣，我們錯過了最初的雲端建置。但我現在可以非常自信地說，當我們經歷人工智慧轉向乙太網路的轉變時，我們處於非常有利的位置。我們擁有令人難以置信的矽片，他們一直將其用於其產品組合的其他部分。

We won 3 more use cases last quarter. We now are installed in 21 use cases across the top 6 of these providers. And we expect that, that momentum will just continue over the next few years. I do think that in the short term, InfiniBand is probably going to still be the preferred in most cases, but they are trialing. And we will, much like we already have, we'll get some opportunities to run Ethernet (inaudible) as we deliver Scheduled Fabric, it will become even more prevalent.

上個季度我們又贏得了 3 個用例。目前，我們已在前 6 大供應商的 21 個用例中安裝了該產品。我們預計，這種勢頭在未來幾年還將繼續下去。我確實認為，在短期內，InfiniBand 在大多數情況下可能仍然是首選，但他們正在試驗。就像我們已經擁有的那樣，隨著我們交付 Scheduled Fabric，我們將獲得一些運行乙太網路（聽不清楚）的機會，它將變得更加普遍。

Tal Liani with Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Tal Liani。

I have one kind of big-picture question and one more specific. Maybe I'll start with the specific question. If I look at the 400-gig Ethernet market share, cloud, if I take Arista and white boxes, it's like over 90% of the market. Cisco doesn't have much of a 400-gig market share by the data. But you are talking about growing market share in 800-gig. Can you talk about the dynamics of 400? And then why was it this way in 400 and how it changes in 800 in your expectations?

我有一個總體問題和一個更具體的問題。也許我應該從具體的問題開始。如果我看一下 400 千兆乙太網路的市場份額，雲，如果我採用 Arista 和白盒，那麼它的市場份額就超過 90％。從數據顯示，思科在 400GbE 市場的市佔率並不大。但您談論的是 800G 的市場份額不斷增長。能談談400的動態嗎？那麼為什麼在 400 中會出現這種情況以及在您的預期下在 800 中會發生怎樣的變化？

Second is about the big picture. And I need -- I want to understand kind of the numbers. Product revenues last year were $38 billion. Product revenues this year is $43 billion. So that's $5 billion increase. And the decline in backlog is about $5 billion. Your implied guidance for next year for product revenues is roughly flat plus. So without the support of backlog, how do you get to product revenues? What are the other parts that could go to product revenues and compensate for the fact that backlog is going to be normal by the end of next quarter or next 2 quarters, maybe?

第二是關於大局。我需要——我想了解這些數字。去年產品收入為380億美元。今年的產品收入為430億美元。所以增加了 50 億美元。積壓訂單減少約50億美元。您對明年產品收入的隱含指引大致是持平。那如果沒有backlog的支持，如何獲得產品收入呢？還有哪些部分可以用於產品收入並彌補積壓訂單在下個季度末或接下來的兩個季度內恢復正常的事實？

Yes, Tal, thank you for that. And so on the 400-gig to 800-gig, I don't know that I've seen exact reports that you're talking about on the 400-gig. But our teams -- the volume of ports that we're shipping on 400-gig would imply that that's a -- I don't know, we've had a great deal of success and it's been growing quite significantly.

是的，塔爾，謝謝你。因此，關於 400 GB 到 800 GB，我不知道我是否看到您所談論的有關 400 GB 的確切報告。但是我們的團隊 - 我們在 400Gig 上運送的連接埠數量意味著這是一個 - 我不知道，我們已經取得了很大的成功，並且它的增長相當顯著。

So -- but we obviously had -- over the last few years, we've been rebuilding or actually building our presence in this space. So it wouldn't surprise me to see us as a low market share player, but we've certainly won our fair share.

所以 — — 但顯然 — — 在過去幾年裡，我們一直在重建或實際建立我們在這個領域的存在。因此，如果我們的市場份額較低，我並不感到驚訝，但我們確實贏得了應有的份額。

On the 800-gig, I think it's just a matter of we're engaged there. We're installed already. We've got trust with these customers. They've seen what we can do. And I think that we're just in the game at the right time as opposed to where we started. And so I think from now on, it just gives us an opportunity to be there from the beginning as opposed to trying to catch up.

關於 800Gig，我認為這只是我們參與其中的問題。我們已經安裝好了。我們贏得了這些客戶的信任。他們已經看到了我們能做什麼。我認為，與剛開始時相比，我們現在加入這場遊戲的時間是正確的。因此我認為從現在開始，這只是為我們提供了一個從一開始就到達那裡的機會，而不是試圖追趕。

And Tal, to your question on the math you're trying to do on product revenue, I think some of this goes back to the answer that I gave Tim earlier. One of the things you have to consider is some of the product revenue we delivered this year was actually demand from the prior year, right? Demand from fiscal '22 that because of the supply constraints, we simply couldn't get out the door. Had that not been the case, you would have seen higher product revenue in fiscal '22 and slightly lower product revenue in fiscal '23. And you would have seen a steady increase then from '22 to '23 and '23 to '24. So the things that are driving that are the things that we've talked about, right?

Tal，關於你對產品收入進行計算的問題，我想這可以追溯到我之前給 Tim 的答案。您需要考慮的事情之一是，我們今年提供的部分產品收入實際上是前一年的需求，對嗎？從 22 財年起，由於供應限制，我們根本無法滿足需求。如果不是這種情況，你會看到22財年的產品收入會更高，而23財年的產品收入會略有下降。然後你會看到從 22 年到 23 年，再從 23 年到 24 年，一直呈現穩定成長的勢頭。那麼，推動這些事情的因素就是我們所談論的因素，對嗎？

We continue to see good traction and market share gains in our enterprise networking products. We are invested early in the AI game and see a great opportunity there. We're getting early success, although it's -- you're not seeing a lot of it yet in the P&L, but we're seeing some pretty early success with our revamped security strategy and the great work that team has done. And so -- but instead of trying to do it the way you're doing it, the delivery has been lumpy, the demand has been less lumpy is probably the right way to think about it.

我們的企業網路產品持續保持良好的發展勢頭，市場份額不斷擴大。我們很早就開始投資人工智慧領域，並看到了巨大的機會。我們正在獲得早期的成功，儘管您在損益表中還沒有看到很多成功，但透過我們改進的安全策略和團隊所做的出色工作，我們已經看到了一些相當早期的成功。所以 — — 但不要試圖按照你現在的方式去做，交付一直不穩定，需求一直不穩定可能才是正確的思考方式。

Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

This is Joe Cardoso on for Samik. Just one question for me. You mentioned double-digit growth across all your customer verticals from an order perspective but also mentioned service provider continuing to be weak. I was just hoping you could touch on what you're seeing under the hood in service provider. And specifically, if I split it up between telco AI and non-AI cloud, how did those track compared to 90 days ago?

這是喬‧卡多索 (Joe Cardoso)，取代薩米克 (Samik)。我只想問一個問題。您提到從訂單角度來看，所有客戶垂直領域都實現了兩位數成長，但同時也提到服務提供者的動能持續疲軟。我只是希望您能談談您在服務提供者內部看到的情況。具體來說，如果我將其分為電信 AI 和非 AI 雲，那麼與 90 天前相比，它們的走勢如何？

And then just quickly, a quick clarification on the $0.5 billion in orders in AI. Any way you can parse it out, like how many customers is reflected in that order number? And then just quickly clarify if that's all hyperscale or if there's any Tier 2 cloud or enterprise customers in that mix.

然後，我們快速澄清一下人工智慧領域的 5 億美元訂單。您能以任何方式分析它嗎，例如該訂單號碼反映了多少客戶？然後快速澄清一下，這是否都是超大規模的，或者其中是否有任何二級雲端或企業客戶。

Yes. Thank you. So on the service provider side, the first question you asked -- let me write my notes down, hold on a second, so I don't have to ask you for the question again. On SP, I think -- I'd say Q4 for the telco side of it, the communications service provider was probably fairly consistent with what it was the quarter before, so it's just relatively weak right now.

是的。謝謝。因此，在服務提供者方面，您問的第一個問題——讓我把我的筆記記下來，等一下，這樣我就不必再次問您這個問題了。關於 SP，我認為——對於電信方面來說，我認為第四季度，通訊服務供應商的表現可能與上一季相當一致，所以現在相對較弱。

We see a lot of these customers have -- are digesting a lot of the infrastructure that they bought over the next few months. We think that -- our team believes that orders will stabilize on the telco side of the business in the second half of our fiscal year.

我們看到很多客戶正在消化他們在接下來的幾個月中購買的大量基礎設施。我們認為－我們的團隊相信，在本財年下半年，電信業務的訂單將會穩定下來。

On the cloud side, we believe that they'll continue to invest. And they kind of invest in 6-month cycles. And we think that in the middle of our fiscal year, we'll see growth in that investment for the first part of 2025.

在雲端方面，我們相信他們會繼續投資。他們以 6 個月為一個週期進行投資。我們認為，在我們的財政年度中期，我們將看到 2025 年上半年投資的成長。

On the $500 million, it is definitely in the Tier 1 hyperscalers. So I'll just leave it at that. On the opportunity that we see, we still see -- we won 3 use cases last quarter. And I would say those were primarily non-AI. So there's still -- we're still winning new use cases in the core infrastructure. And -- but we're in trials in different discussions with most of them relative to AI Fabric.

就 5 億美元而言，它絕對屬於一級超大規模企業。所以我就這樣了。就我們看到的機會而言，我們仍然看到——上個季度我們贏得了 3 個用例。我想說這些主要都不是人工智慧的。因此，我們仍然在核心基礎設施中贏得新的用例。而且 — 但我們正在就不同的討論進行試驗，其中大多數與 AI Fabric 有關。

David Vogt with UBS.

瑞銀的 David Vogt。

I'm not going to belabor the point on orders, but I wanted to ask a question about AI order specifically in terms of your ability to ship to customers and where you are in trials. The reason why I ask is we've heard from a lot of companies in the industry that there's some supply chain considerations that are maybe causing commercial deployments and revenue (inaudible) may be pushed out to 2025. So I just want to get a sense for that 500 orders that you referenced in your prepared remarks, how does that flow through?

我不想詳細討論訂單問題，但我想問一個有關 AI 訂單的問題，特別是關於您向客戶發貨的能力以及您的試用情況。我之所以問這個問題，是因為我們從業內很多公司那裡聽說，出於供應鏈方面的考慮，商業部署和收入（聽不清楚）可能會推遲到 2025 年。準備好的發言中提到的那500 個訂單，是如何執行的？

And then along with that, in the guidance that Scott provided for fiscal '24, how much, if any, is AI-related this year? And if not, why? And when -- going back to my first point, when do we start to see it in your P&L?

同時，在史考特提供的 24 財年指導中，今年與人工智慧相關的內容有多少（如果有的話）？如果不是，為什麼？回到我的第一點，我們什麼時候才能在您的損益表中看到它？

Yes. We do not -- Scott and I are both looking at each other. We don't know of any supply chain issues we have around our AI. It's our standard Ethernet portfolio based on the Silicon One ASIC, and we're delivering it today. So I don't think there's any supply chain issue for us on that front. We might be at a better position than some because it is our own ASICs. On the FY '24 contribution of AI, I don't have that information on top of my head.

是的。我們沒有──史考特和我都在看著對方。我們不知道我們的人工智慧有任何供應鏈問題。這是我們基於 Silicon One ASIC 的標準乙太網路產品組合，我們今天就交付它。因此我認為我們在這方面不存在任何供應鏈問題。我們可能比其他人處於更有利的地位，因為這是我們自己的 ASIC。關於人工智慧對 24 財年的貢獻，我還不太清楚。

Here's what I'd say, here's the right way to think about it, David. Those orders -- what we see is, within the broader hyperscaler world, which is where a lot of these AI sales are going, they're obviously in digest mode. I think you've heard that from us and all of our peers or what they bought.

我想說的是，這是正確的思考方式，大衛。我們看到的是，在更廣泛的超大規模世界中，許多人工智慧銷售都流向這個領域，這些訂單顯然處於消化模式。我想您已經從我們以及我們所有同行那裡聽說過這一點，或者聽說過他們購買了什麼。

We do see toward the end of this calendar year, so towards the midyear of our fiscal year, we see them beginning to place orders again for delivery of product that will happen in the second half. So while I don't want to get into parsing the guide down to that level of granularity, I think what you should expect is it to be something that we'd begin to see show up in the P&L late in the second half.

我們確實看到在今年年底，也就是財政年度年中，他們開始再次下訂單，以便在下半年交付產品。因此，雖然我不想將指南解析到這種詳細程度，但我認為您應該預料到，我們會在下半年後期開始在損益表中看到它。

Yes. What I was going to add, David, is I think until we evolve some of the -- get some of the Scheduled Fabric technologies built out, they're certainly running -- they're running some of these on traditional Ethernet, which is what we're deploying today. But as we get Scheduled Fabric out and these customers get more comfortable moving from InfiniBand to Ethernet, I think that's when we'll start to see the real impact of AI. And maybe it's late '24, but I would suspect into '25 for sure.

是的。我要補充的是，大衛，我認為，在我們開發出一些預定結構技術之前，它們肯定在傳統乙太網路上運行，這是我們今天要部署的內容。但隨著我們推出 Scheduled Fabric，而這些客戶越來越習慣從 InfiniBand 遷移到以太網，我認為那時我們將開始看到 AI 的真正影響。也許是24年末，但我懷疑一定會到25年。

Got it. And maybe just a quick follow-up. So Scott, were there orders from AI last quarter in the product order commentary? Are these basically new orders in this most recent fiscal quarter? Is that maybe the right way to think about it?

知道了。或許只是一個快速的跟進。那麼斯科特，上個季度的產品訂單評論中是否有來自 AI 的訂單？這些基本上是最近一個財政季度的新訂單嗎？這也許是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes. Don't think of the $500 million as all coming in, in the last quarter. Those are orders to date that we know are going into AI infrastructure. That's not a Q4-specific comment.

是的。不要以為這 5 億美元都是在上個季度到帳的。到目前為止，我們知道這些訂單將用於人工智慧基礎設施。這不是針對第四季的評論。

And by the way, a portion of that for sure is deployed. It's in and running.

順便說一句，其中一部分肯定已經被部署了。它已啟動並運行。

Simon Leopold with Raymond James & Associates.

雷蒙詹姆斯合夥人公司的西蒙‧利奧波德 (Simon Leopold)。

I wanted to see if you could talk a little bit about what your assumptions are for your campus-related business, and I'm including both switching and wireless LAN. I assume that's roughly -- almost $15 billion of trailing 4-quarter sales, somewhere in that ballpark. And I've seen market research saying that business declines, some saying it's growing. And Chuck, you highlighted that $1 billion renewal. Just trying to get my head around how material that is and what's built into the full year forecast for campus?

我想看看您是否可以稍微談談您對校園相關業務的假設，其中包括交換和無線區域網路。我估計過去 4 個季度的銷售額大約為 150 億美元，大概在這個範圍內。我看到一些市場調查顯示業務正在下滑，但也有一些顯示業務在成長。查克，你強調了 10 億美元的續約。只是想弄清楚這些內容有多麼重要以及校園全年預測中包含了哪些內容？

I'll make 2 comments and, Scott, I'll let you add to it. First of all, as we said, we think that as you see the Q2 calendar year share numbers come out, you'll continue to see us gain share in that space. And so we would expect to continue doing that. The renewal number that I threw out was close to $1 billion.

我會提出 2 條評論，斯科特，我會讓你補充。首先，正如我們所說，我們認為，當您看到第二季度日曆年份額數字出來時，您將繼續看到我們在該領域的份額增加。因此我們希望繼續這樣做。我給的續約數字接近 10 億美元。

And Scott, I'll just let you comment on how you want to break down...

斯科特，我只是讓你評論一下你想如何分解......

Yes. No, I don't think there's a whole lot else to add. We're encouraged by what we're seeing in campus. It's one of the things that we've said all along is as the supply -- the backlog begins to be delivered, you'll start to see more and more of those customer decisions that went to us actually show up in the numerator of those market share equation. That's exactly what you're seeing.

是的。不，我想沒有什麼好補充的了。校園裡的所見所聞令我們深受鼓舞。我們一直在說的一件事是，隨著供應——積壓訂單開始交付，你將開始看到越來越多的客戶決策實際上出現在這些訂單的分子中。這正是您所看到的。

So I think the concern over the several quarters while we had supply constraints that maybe impacted us more than some of our peers, you should see those unwind as we can now deliver that backlog. The $1 billion of renewal that Chuck -- roughly $1 billion of renewal that Chuck talked about, that is a subset of our fiscal '24 guide.

因此，我認為，在過去幾個季度裡，我們面臨的供應限制問題可能比我們的一些同業對我們的影響更大，但這些問題應該會逐漸緩解，因為我們現在可以交付積壓的訂單。查克談到的 10 億美元更新資金 — — 大約 10 億美元更新資金，是我們 24 年財政指南的一部分。

Yes.

是的。

All right. So we'll go ahead and turn it over to you, Chuck, for some closing remarks.

好的。因此，我們將繼續把時間交給你，查克，請你做一些結束語。

Thanks, Marilyn. First of all, I want to thank our teams and just say how proud I am of the work that's gone into the last couple of years to actually deliver the record results that we did. We're incredibly proud of the share gains that we expected to gain, and we are. I'm proud of the team and the new innovation that's being delivered in areas like AI and security and across the portfolio in observability and core networking and SP routing, all of these areas, the teams are doing an amazing job.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊，我對我們在過去幾年所做的努力以及所取得的創紀錄的成績感到非常自豪。我們對於預期獲得的份額成長感到無比自豪，事實也確實如此。我為我們的團隊以及我們在人工智慧和安全等領域以及可觀察性、核心網路和 SP 路由等產品組合中實現的新創新感到自豪，在所有這些領域，我們的團隊都做得非常出色。

And our portfolio is very relevant to the customer priorities that we see around the world. I've never seen such consistency around the priorities in virtually every customer around the world, and our portfolio lines up nicely against the key things that our customers are trying to achieve.

我們的產品組合與全球客戶的優先考慮因素高度相關。我從未見過全球幾乎所有客戶的優先事項如此一致，我們的產品組合與客戶試圖實現的關鍵目標完全一致。

I'm also very proud of the team and Scott and the rest of the finance organization for what they've done. And we're very happy to provide clarity on our commitment to our shareholders with the operating leverage and the buybacks and our dividend as we look to the future. So thanks for joining us today.

我也對團隊、史考特以及金融機構其他成員所做的一切感到非常自豪。展望未來，我們非常高興能夠透過經營槓桿、回購和股利明確我們對股東的承諾。感謝您今天加入我們。

Thanks, Chuck, I'll go ahead and wrap us up. Cisco's next quarterly earnings conference call, which will reflect our fiscal year 2024 first quarter results, will be on Wednesday, November 15, 2023, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

謝謝，查克，我將繼續講解並結束我們的講解。思科的下一次季度財報電話會議將於 2023 年 11 月 15 日星期三下午 1:30 舉行，該會議將反映我們 2024 財年第一季的業績。太平洋時間，下午 4:30。東部時間。

This concludes today's call. And of course, if you have any further questions, feel free to reach out to Cisco's Investor Relations group. And we thank you very much for joining today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。當然，如果您還有任何其他問題，請隨時聯絡思科投資者關係部門。非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

Thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (866) 405-7294. For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369-0606. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如果您想完整收聽電話會議，請撥打 (866) 405-7294。對於從美國境外撥打的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369-0606。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。