康菲 (COP) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the First Quarter 2023 ConocoPhillips Earnings Conference Call. My name is Michelle, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions). I will now turn the call over to Phil Gresh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

歡迎來到康菲石油公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。我叫米歇爾，我將擔任今天電話會議的接線員。 （操作員說明）。我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Phil Gresh。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Michelle, and welcome to everyone to our first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Bill Bullock, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Dominic Macklon, Executive Vice President of Strategy, Sustainability and Technology; Nick Olds, Executive President of Lower 48; Andy O'Brien, Senior Vice President of Global Operations; and Tim Leach, advisory to the CEO.

謝謝米歇爾，歡迎大家參加我們 2023 年第一季度的收益電話會議。康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾名成員出席了今天的電話會議，其中包括董事長兼首席執行官 Ryan Lance； Bill Bullock，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；戰略、可持續發展和技術執行副總裁 Dominic Macklon； Lower 48 執行總裁 Nick Olds；全球運營高級副總裁 Andy O'Brien；和首席執行官的顧問 Tim Leach。

Ryan and Bill will kick off the call with opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions. A few quick reminders. First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation, which you can find on the Investor Relations website; second, during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations.

Ryan 和 Bill 將以開場白開始電話會議，之後團隊將回答您的問題。一些快速提醒。首先，在今天發布的同時，我們還發布了補充財務材料和幻燈片演示，您可以在投資者關係網站上找到它們；其次，在本次電話會議期間，我們將根據當前預期做出前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. Finally, we will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website. With that, I will turn the call over to Ryan.

由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。最後，我們將參考一些非 GAAP 財務指標。可以在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到與最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的對賬。有了這個，我會把電話轉給瑞安。

Thanks, Phil, and thank you to everyone for joining our first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Since we just hosted our Analyst Day and Investor Meeting in New York a few weeks ago, we are going to keep our prepared remarks fairly brief today. ConocoPhillips delivered a strong first quarter result, setting a new production record for the company as well as in the Lower 48.

謝謝，菲爾，感謝大家參加我們 2023 年第一季度的收益電話會議。由於幾週前我們剛剛在紐約舉辦了分析師日和投資者會議，因此我們今天準備的發言將相當簡短。康菲石油公司第一季度業績強勁，為公司和美國本土 48 個州創造了新的生產記錄。

Underlying production growth was 4% year-on-year, including 8% year-on-year growth in the Lower 48. We are confident in our outlook for the rest of the year, and we are increasing the midpoint of our full year production guidance. We're keeping our full year capital and operating guidance unchanged. Shifting to returns on enough capital, we continue to demonstrate our returns-focused value proposition in the first quarter.

基本產量同比增長 4%，其中美國本土 48 個地區同比增長 8%。我們對今年剩餘時間的前景充滿信心，我們正在提高全年產量的中點指導。我們保持全年資本和運營指導不變。轉向足夠資本的回報，我們在第一季度繼續展示我們以回報為中心的價值主張。

Our return on capital employed once again exceeded our goal of being top quartile in the S&P 500. And as we highlighted at the recent Analyst and Investor Meeting, we remain confident in our ability to achieve this objective in a mid-cycle price environment over the course of our 10-year plan. On return of capital, we are on track to deliver on our planned $11 billion for 2023, which represents greater than 50% of our projected CFO and is highly competitive with peers.

我們的已動用資本回報率再次超過了我們在標準普爾 500 指數中排名前四分之一的目標。正如我們在最近的分析師和投資者會議上強調的那樣，我們仍然相信我們有能力在中期週期價格環境中實現這一目標我們的 10 年計劃課程。在資本回報方面，我們有望實現 2023 年 110 億美元的計劃，占我們預計 CFO 的 50% 以上，與同行相比具有很強的競爭力。

And we are able to achieve all of this while investing in our attractive mid- and long-term opportunities. Our first quarter was also quite busy from a strategic perspective. At Port Arthur LNG, we acquired a 30% equity interest in the joint venture upon final investment decision on Phase 1. At Willow, we are pleased to receive a positive record of decision and began road construction. And at APLNG, we announced plans to become upstream operator following the closing of EIG's transaction with Origin and to purchase up to an additional 2.49% in the project.

我們能夠在投資於我們有吸引力的中長期機會的同時實現所有這一切。從戰略角度來看，我們的第一季度也很忙。在 Port Arthur LNG，我們在第一階段的最終投資決定中獲得了合資企業 30% 的股權。在 Willow，我們很高興收到積極的決定記錄並開始道路建設。在 APLNG，我們宣布計劃在 EIG 與 Origin 的交易完成後成為上游運營商，並額外購買該項目最多 2.49% 的股份。

We also accelerated our 2030 greenhouse gas emissions intensity reduction target to 50% to 60% versus a 2016 baseline as we further advance our net 0 operational emissions ambition. I know everyone has the question on Surmont, so let me address that right now. We acknowledge that we received our right of first refusal notice, and we're certainly reviewing it carefully.

隨著我們進一步推進淨零運營排放目標，我們還將 2030 年溫室氣體排放強度降低目標加快至 50% 至 60%（與 2016 年基線相比）。我知道每個人都對 Surmont 有疑問，所以讓我現在就解決這個問題。我們承認我們收到了優先拒絕通知的權利，我們當然會仔細審查它。

Now in conclusion, as we shared at our Analyst and Investor Meeting last month, our deep, durable and diversified asset base is well positioned to generate solid returns in cash flow for decades to come. And as I said then, we challenge any other E&P company to show you a plan with this kind of duration. Now let me turn the call over to Bill to cover our first quarter performance in more detail.

現在總而言之，正如我們在上個月的分析師和投資者會議上分享的那樣，我們深厚、持久和多元化的資產基礎處於有利地位，可以在未來幾十年產生可觀的現金流回報。正如我當時所說，我們挑戰任何其他 E&P 公司向您展示具有這種持續時間的計劃。現在讓我把電話轉給比爾，更詳細地介紹我們第一季度的表現。

Well, thanks, Ryan. In the first quarter of 2023, we generated $2.38 per share in adjusted earnings. First quarter production was a record for the company at 1,792,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by solid execution across the entire portfolio. The Eagle Ford stabilized our expansion and Qatargas 3 planned turnarounds were both successfully completed. And Lower 48 production was also a record, averaging 1,036,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, including 694,000 from the Permian; 227,000 from the Eagle Ford; 98,000 from the Bakken.

好吧，謝謝，瑞安。 2023 年第一季度，我們產生了每股 2.38 美元的調整後收益。在整個產品組合的穩健執行的推動下，公司第一季度的產量創下了每天 1,792,000 桶油當量的記錄。 Eagle Ford 穩定了我們的擴張，Qatargas 3 計劃的轉機也都成功完成。 Lower 48 的產量也創下歷史新高，平均每天 1,036,000 桶油當量，其中二疊紀 694,000 桶；鷹灘 227,000 人； 98,000 來自 Bakken。

And Lower 48 underlying production grew 8% year-on-year with new wells online and strong well performance relative to our expectations across our asset base. Now moving to cash flows. First quarter CFO was $5.7 billion, excluding working capital at an average WTI price of sellers per barrel. This included APLNG distributions of $764 million. Now first quarter capital expenditures were $2.9 billion, including $400 million for Port Arthur Phase 1 and $100 million in Lower 48 acquisitions.

較低的 48 個基礎產量同比增長 8%，新油井上線以及相對於我們對整個資產基礎的預期而言強勁的油井表現。現在轉向現金流。第一季度 CFO 為 57 億美元，不包括以 WTI 賣方平均價格計算的營運資金。這包括 7.64 億美元的 APLNG 分配。現在第一季度的資本支出為 29 億美元，其中包括亞瑟港一期的 4 億美元和收購 Lower 48 的 1 億美元。

Regarding Port Arthur, as you will recall from our fourth quarter call, we said we tend to spend about $1.1 billion in 2023. So first quarter spending was very front-end loaded relative to the full year. In the first quarter, we also received $200 million in disposition proceeds. And regarding capital allocation, we returned $3.2 billion back to shareholders. And this was via $1.7 billion in share buybacks and $1.5 billion in ordinary dividends and VROC payments.

關於亞瑟港，正如您從我們第四季度的電話會議中回憶的那樣，我們表示我們傾向於在 2023 年支出約 11 億美元。因此，與全年相比，第一季度的支出非常重。第一季度，我們還收到了 2 億美元的處置收益。在資本配置方面，我們向股東返還了 32 億美元。這是通過 17 億美元的股票回購和 15 億美元的普通股息和 VROC 支付實現的。

Turning to guidance. We forecast second quarter production to be in a range of 1.77 million to 1.81 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This includes 10,000 to 15,000 of planned seasonal turnarounds. We have also increased the midpoint of our full year production guidance by 10,000 barrels a day. Our new range is 1.78 million to 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, up from 1.7 million to 1.8 million previously.

轉向指導。我們預測第二季度的產量將在每天 177 萬至 181 萬桶石油當量之間。這包括 10,000 到 15,000 次計劃的季節性周轉。我們還將全年產量指導的中點提高了 10,000 桶/天。我們的新範圍是 178 萬至 180 萬桶油當量，高於之前的 170 萬至 180 萬桶油當量。

For APLNG, we expect distributions of 350 million to 400 million in the second quarter. And for the full year, we expect APLNG distributions of 1.8 billion. All other items remain unchanged. So to wrap up, we had a strong first quarter. We remain confident in our outlook, leading to our increase in full year production guidance. And we expect to return $11 billion to our shareholders this year. And we're well positioned to deliver on our commitments throughout this year. So that concludes our prepared remarks. And now I'll turn the call back over to Phil.

對於 APLNG，我們預計第二季度的分配量為 3.5 億至 4 億。對於全年，我們預計 APLNG 的分配量為 18 億。所有其他項目保持不變。總而言之，我們第一季度表現強勁。我們對我們的前景仍然充滿信心，導致我們增加了全年的生產指導。我們預計今年將向股東返還 110 億美元。我們完全有能力在今年全年兌現我們的承諾。我們準備好的發言到此結束。現在我會把電話轉回給 Phil。

Great. Thanks, Bill. (Operator Instructions). Since we just hosted the Analyst Day a few weeks ago and is obviously quite a busy earnings day for everybody. So with that, Michelle, let's move to the Q&A.

偉大的。謝謝，比爾。 （操作員說明）。因為我們幾週前剛剛舉辦了分析師日，顯然對每個人來說都是一個忙碌的收益日。那麼，米歇爾，讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions). The first question comes from Stephen Richardson with Evercore.

（操作員說明）。第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Stephen Richardson。

Ryan, I was wondering if you could talk, I mean, on the return of capital, obviously, outperforming 50% of cash flow from ops and setting up really strongly versus the $11 billion target. Just wondering if you could address the environment is not straightforward. There's a lot of volatility out there. And just from a shareholders' perspective, how do you think about balancing VROC buyback and just the general flexibility as people consider kind of the volatility in the commodity environment?

瑞安，我想知道你是否可以談談，我的意思是，關於資本回報，顯然，表現優於運營現金流的 50%，並且與 110 億美元的目標相比非常強勁。只是想知道您是否可以解決環境問題並不簡單。那裡有很多波動。從股東的角度來看，您如何看待平衡 VROC 回購和人們考慮商品環境波動的一般靈活性？

Yes. Thanks, Stephen. I think let me just start by recognizing the volatility that's currently in the market. But even with that, as we look at the first quarter average prices were in the mid-70s WTI quarter-to-date in the second quarter in the high 70s. So that's close enough to our planning framework that we set out early in the year that close enough to 80 and delivering the $22 billion in cash for the year.

是的。謝謝，斯蒂芬。我想讓我首先認識到目前市場上的波動性。但即便如此，正如我們所看到的，第一季度的平均價格在 70 年代中期 WTI 季度至今處於 70 年代的高位。因此，這足以接近我們在今年年初制定的計劃框架，該框架足以接近 80 並提供 220 億美元的現金。

So we're not going to overreact to kind of what we're seeing in the volatility right now. So we're on track, and hopefully, you see that with the VROC that we set for the third quarter, on track to deliver the $11 billion distributions that we set out at the beginning of the year. We're comfortable with that. We have the balance sheet to support it if prices turn out a little bit lower as well.

因此，我們不會對我們目前在波動中看到的那種情況反應過度。因此，我們正在走上正軌，希望您能看到我們為第三季度設定的 VROC，有望交付我們在年初設定的 110 億美元的分配。我們對此很滿意。如果價格也稍低一點，我們有資產負債表來支持它。

So it would take a structural change, and we certainly don't view this volatility that we're seeing right now as a structural change in the marketplace. In terms of the mix and the balance, we said we'd do about 50% shares. We leaned in a little bit in the first quarter on the shares. But through the year, we expect to be about 50-50 between our VROC and the shares to deliver the $11 billion of returns back to the shareholder. Hopefully, you see that the third quarter setting of the VROC at $0.60 a share. That should give you for -- we're on to deliver that.

因此，這需要進行結構性改變，我們當然不會將我們現在看到的這種波動視為市場的結構性變化。就組合和平衡而言，我們說我們會做大約 50% 的股份。我們在第一季度對股票有所傾斜。但全年，我們預計我們的 VROC 與股票之間的比例約為 50-50，以便將 110 億美元的回報返還給股東。希望您看到第三季度 VROC 設定為每股 0.60 美元。那應該給你 - 我們正在交付它。

The next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾梅塔。

Yes. Congrats on a really good Lower 48 quarter in particular. Ryan, I think you sort of cut -- headed this question off, but I'd love you to comment to the extent you can on Surmont, recognizing it's an active situation. And as you think about that asset, first of all, it seems from the Analyst Day that it is a core position for you guys. And just any thoughts on whether it makes sense to be a bigger part of the portfolio to the extent you can comment at all?

是的。特別是祝賀 Lower 48 的一個非常好的季度。 Ryan，我認為你有點打斷了這個問題，但我希望你盡可能地對 Surmont 發表評論，認識到這是一個活躍的情況。當你考慮這項資產時，首先，從分析師日來看，它似乎是你們的核心職位。關於在您可以發表評論的範圍內成為投資組合的更大一部分是否有意義的任何想法？

Yes, Neil, thanks. No, I can let Andy maybe make a few comments about the assets, which would be kind of reiterating what we said at the analyst meeting. But Yes, we're in receipt of the notice on the transaction between Total and Suncor. We have a right on the Surmont asset, which we know really well because we own 50% and operate it. So we're in the process of taking a pretty serious look at that. I can maybe have Andy reiterate some of our thoughts about the asset that we described in the Analyst Meeting.

是的，尼爾，謝謝。不，我可以讓安迪對這些資產發表一些評論，這有點像重申我們在分析師會議上所說的話。但是，是的，我們收到了有關 Total 和 Suncor 之間交易的通知。我們擁有 Surmont 資產的權利，我們非常了解它，因為我們擁有並經營它的 50%。所以我們正在認真考慮這個問題。我也許可以讓安迪重申我們對我們在分析師會議上描述的資產的一些想法。

Neil, yes, as we said in the analyst meeting, we do like Surmont as the nice sort of long life, low capital intensity asset for us. As we covered in the analyst meeting that low capital intensity is an important part of our portfolio. And just to sort of reiterate that, sort of the maintenance capital on Surmont -- I'm referring now to our 50% share of Surmont, has been in the $20 million to $30 million a year range for the last 5 years.

尼爾，是的，正如我們在分析師會議上所說，我們確實喜歡 Surmont，因為它對我們來說是一種壽命長、資本密集度低的資產。正如我們在分析師會議上提到的那樣，低資本密集度是我們投資組合的重要組成部分。只是重申一下，在 Surmont 的某種維護資本——我現在指的是我們在 Surmont 的 50% 的股份，在過去 5 年中一直在每年 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元的範圍內。

And you'll recall, I mentioned that we're drilling our first new pad since 2016. That pad, for example, will be in the $40 million to $50 million. So it's a very low capital intensity asset for us with that sort of basically flat production profile. And as you know, sort of -- pretty much all of our other drill information we disclose in terms of our production data, our bitumen realizations, our operating costs, that's all out there. So you can form your own view on the asset, but it's an asset that is a core asset in our portfolio. I'll probably just stop there.

你會記得，我提到過我們正在鑽探自 2016 年以來的第一個新墊。例如，那個墊將在 4000 萬到 5000 萬美元之間。因此，對於我們來說，這種基本持平的生產狀況對我們來說是一種資本密集度非常低的資產。正如你所知，我們在生產數據、瀝青實現、運營成本方面披露的幾乎所有其他鑽探信息都在那裡。所以你可以對資產形成自己的看法，但它是我們投資組合中的核心資產。我可能就到此為止了。

The next question comes from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Roger Read。

I guess I'd like to follow up on Port Arthur LNG. Obviously, the Phase 1 was covered. There's always a possibility of greater expansion in LNG. Just what would be the things we would watch coming up in terms of the second phase?

我想我想跟進亞瑟港液化天然氣。顯然，第 1 階段已涵蓋在內。液化天然氣總是有更大擴張的可能性。就第二階段而言，我們會關注哪些事情？

Yes. Sure, Roger. This is Bill. As we talked about at the Analyst Investor Meeting, we're currently really satisfied with 30% for Phase 1 and our 5 million ton equity offtake and we're prioritizing market development over any additional offtake in equity right now. We really think we've got sufficient capital allocation to Port Arthur, and we're looking for ways to optimize our current investment. So our plate's pretty full, and we don't need -- see need to allocate significant additional capital in the near term. And so there need to be some pretty unique reasons to make it attractive.

是的。當然，羅傑。這是比爾。正如我們在分析師投資者會議上談到的那樣，我們目前對第一階段的 30% 和我們的 500 萬噸股權承購感到非常滿意，我們現在正在優先考慮市場發展而不是任何額外的股權承購。我們真的認為我們已經對亞瑟港進行了足夠的資本配置，並且我們正在尋找優化當前投資的方法。所以我們的盤子已經滿了，我們不需要——看到需要在短期內分配大量的額外資本。因此，需要有一些非常獨特的理由才能使其具有吸引力。

The next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

This is actually Kalei on for Doug. My question is a follow-up on Surmont. So our understanding is that Suncor could receive certain tax benefits as part of their deal. And I'm wondering if those tax benefits would be available to you if you exercise your right of first refusal? And I'm asking the question because I think yours would look more like an asset deal, while there's is more of a corporate deal.

這實際上是 Kalei 對 Doug 的支持。我的問題是 Surmont 的後續問題。因此我們的理解是，作為交易的一部分，Suncor 可以獲得某些稅收優惠。我想知道如果您行使優先購買權，您是否可以獲得這些稅收優惠？我問這個問題是因為我認為你的交易看起來更像是一項資產交易，而更多的是公司交易。

Well, as we said, Kalie, that we're currently reviewing the proposal that we got and the terms and the conditions. So it's a bit early to comment on tax pools.

好吧，正如我們所說，Kalie，我們目前正在審查我們收到的提案以及條款和條件。因此，現在就稅池發表評論還為時過早。

The next question comes from Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin。

The capital efficiency looks like it's going in the right direction with the production guidance and the capital plan in line. At the Analyst Day, you made some comments where you thought it was at least possible that you could start to see inflation ease if not reverse. And the question is just as you think about this production results, is that an outcome of maybe an opportunity to press activity a little bit as costs are easing? Or is this -- is it more of a well results-driven outcome?

資本效率看起來正朝著正確的方向發展，生產指導和資本計劃一致。在分析師日，您發表了一些評論，您認為至少有可能開始看到通脹放緩（如果不逆轉的話）。問題是，正如您對生產結果的思考一樣，隨著成本的降低，是否有機會稍微推動活動？或者這是 - 它更像是一個以結果為導向的結果嗎？

It's Dominic here. Just to talk to inflation a little bit first. I think overall, our capital inflation for the company, we still expect to be in the mid-single digits year-over-year. So we certainly see that all leveling off. As you mentioned before, we've probably seen deflationary trends in steel tubulars, oil price-related commodities such as fuel and chemicals, beyond that on the rig and other services. They've certainly leveled off.

我是多米尼克。先談談通貨膨脹。我認為總的來說，我們公司的資本通脹，我們仍然預計同比處於中等個位數。所以我們當然看到一切都趨於平穩。正如您之前提到的，除了鑽井平台和其他服務之外，我們可能已經看到鋼管、與石油價格相關的商品（例如燃料和化學品）的通貨緊縮趨勢。他們肯定已經趨於平穩。

We may be trending towards some reductions. We have seen rig counts peak and begin to decline. That's led by the gas basins. So our teams are very focused on costs, and they're working with our many service providers on that, but we still expect around the mid-single digits at this stage on inflation. Having said that, we certainly see capital efficiency coming through.

我們可能會傾向於減少一些。我們已經看到鑽機數量達到頂峰並開始下降。這是由天然氣盆地領導的。所以我們的團隊非常關注成本，他們正在與我們的許多服務提供商合作，但我們仍然預計現階段通貨膨脹率約為中個位數。話雖如此，我們肯定會看到資本效率的提高。

I think that's really on an execution front. So we've had a strong start, particularly in the Lower 48. Our full year production guidance, as we've said, is up at the midpoint. We do expect low to mid-single digits growth for the year, and that's pretty consistent with the long-term 4% to 5% CAGR we presented at our investor meeting. We're holding our capital range the same with $11 billion at the midpoint. So we're definitely seeing some execution efficiency. We're pleased about that. Nick, you may want to talk a little bit more about the Lower 48 on that.

我認為這真的是在執行方面。因此，我們有一個良好的開端，特別是在美國本土 48 國。正如我們所說，我們的全年生產指導處於中點。我們確實預計今年將實現中低個位數增長，這與我們在投資者會議上提出的 4% 至 5% 的長期復合年增長率非常一致。我們的資本範圍保持不變，中點為 110 億美元。所以我們肯定會看到一些執行效率。我們對此感到高興。尼克，你可能想多談談下 48 區。

All right. Thanks, Dom. Yes, Sam, just to take you back to the analyst call when we talked about drilling and completions efficiency. If you recall, we had from 2019 to 2022, we had a 50% improvement in drilling, 60% improvement in completion at stages per day. We continue to see that in Q1, very promising results, and that's the use of technology like semi frac, e-frac.

好的。謝謝，多姆。是的，山姆，當我們談到鑽井和完井效率時，只是想帶你回到分析師電話會議上。如果你還記得的話，從 2019 年到 2022 年，我們的鑽井速度提高了 50%，每天分階段完成的速度提高了 60%。我們繼續在第一季度看到非常有希望的結果，那就是使用半壓裂、電子壓裂等技術。

We're testing out some remote frac as well where we keep a frac spread on pad 1 and then we frac pad 2, pad 3, pad 4. So very promising results there. as well on the drilling front, we continue to use data analytics and rig automation, but all that's coming together, so really promising. That did lead to some accelerated places on production of wells in Q1 driving some of the overperformance.

我們也在測試一些遠程壓裂，我們在墊 1 上保持壓裂分佈，然後我們壓裂墊 2、墊 3、墊 4。因此非常有希望的結果。在鑽井方面，我們繼續使用數據分析和鑽機自動化，但所有這些都結合在一起，非常有前途。這確實導致第一季度油井生產的一些加速位置推動了一些超常表現。

The next question comes from John Royall with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Royall。

So my question is just on Willow. Are there any updates there to how the lawsuits are progressing? And are you any closer to a resolution there and getting to FID then when we last saw you a few weeks ago with the AIM?

所以我的問題只是關於 Willow。是否有任何關於訴訟進展情況的最新消息？當我們幾週前在 AIM 上最後一次見到你時，你是否更接近那裡的決議並進入 FID？

John, this is Andy. Yes, there's really not too much new to comment on over the last few weeks. So the only incremental news we've had has all been positive. The 9 Circle Court of Appeals denied motions attempting to stop our construction work. So we've been progressing with the winter season, and we've had gravel extraction and road construction underway. It's pretty much going as we expected it would in the last 2, 3 weeks, not much more to add than we talked about at the analyst Investor Day.

約翰，這是安迪。是的，過去幾週確實沒有太多新東西可以評論。因此，我們所獲得的唯一增量新聞都是積極的。 9 Circle 上訴法院駁回了試圖停止我們建築工程的動議。所以我們在冬季一直在進步，我們已經進行了礫石開采和道路建設。在過去的 2、3 週內，它的進展與我們預期的差不多，沒有比我們在分析師投資者日討論的更多。

The next question comes from Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Ryan Todd 和 Piper Sandler。

Ryan, and -- maybe one for you, following up on the Analyst Day. But what impact, if any, does -- you increased your view of the mid-cycle oil price from 50% to 60%. What impact, if any, does that have on the way in which you think about the business. I mean you're still focused on low cost of supply assets well below this price. Does the view that oil prices would be structural to have over time have any impact on the way you think about managing the business over the long term, your balance sheet, allocation of capital or anything else?

Ryan，也許是給你的，在分析師日跟進。但是，如果有影響的話，會產生什麼影響——您將對周期中期油價的看法從 50% 提高到 60%。這對您思考業務的方式有什麼影響（如果有的話）。我的意思是你仍然專注於遠低於這個價格的低成本供應資產。石油價格隨著時間的推移會產生結構性影響的觀點是否對您考慮長期管理業務的方式、資產負債表、資本分配或其他任何方面有任何影響？

No. Thanks, Ryan. In terms of how we're running the company day to day and the allocation of capital that we're put in each year, it really doesn't. We're only investing in things that have a cost of supply less than $40 WTI in the portfolio. So what a mid-cycle price change, our Chief Economist office, our commercial team, we go through a process every year where we take a current view of the macro and have a long-range view of what we think is happening.

不，謝謝，瑞安。就我們日常運營公司的方式以及我們每年投入的資本分配而言，事實並非如此。我們只投資於投資組合中供應成本低於 40 美元 WTI 的東西。因此，我們的首席經濟學家辦公室、我們的商業團隊每年都會經歷一個週期中期的價格變化過程，我們從當前的角度看待宏觀，並對我們認為正在發生的事情有一個長期的看法。

And as we've gone through a lot of turmoil in the business, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, just the lack of investment going into the business these days. we stepped back and did our own bottoms up, which we do every year, but important this year, we did our own bottoms-up work to try to understand where we think the mid-cycle price is moving to. And what it was at -- staying at kind of that $50 level.

由於我們在業務中經歷了很多動盪，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，這些天只是缺乏對業務的投資。我們退後一步，自己做了自下而上的工作，我們每年都會這樣做，但今年很重要，我們做了自己的自下而上的工作，試圖了解我們認為周期中期價格將走向何方。它是什麼——保持在 50 美元的水平。

Our assessment of the price required to generate that incremental barrel to meet that incremental demand, our assessment put it at around $60 today. And so that -- so the implications of that are really just how much cash flow we think we're going to be generating as we interrogate the portfolio, as we invest in the growth and development of the company, and we put capital into the company the way it manifests itself is just how much floor we can deliver at that kind of mid-cycle price, which is obviously a little bit more than what we would deliver at the lower price.

我們對產生增量桶以滿足增量需求所需的價格進行評估，我們的評估顯示今天約為 60 美元。因此 - 所以當我們審視投資組合時，當我們投資於公司的增長和發展時，我們認為我們將產生多少現金流，我們將資金投入公司表現出來的方式就是我們可以以這種中期週期價格提供多少底價，這顯然比我們以較低價格提供的要多一點。

So it goes to sort of how we think about cash in the balance sheet, how we think about the debt that we're carrying, how we think about distributions and how much capacity there is to distribute a bunch of our cash, which our commitment is about 30%. And when we get above mid-cycle price in our cycle like we are today, obviously, we're generating a lot more cash, and we're returning a lot more cash to the shareholder, now something in excess of 50% today. But that's driven by the reinvestment rate that we have in the company our commitment to only invest in the lowest cost supply things we have in the portfolio.

因此，這涉及到我們如何看待資產負債表中的現金，我們如何看待我們所背負的債務，我們如何看待分配以及分配大量現金的能力，這是我們的承諾約為30%。當我們像今天這樣在我們的周期中高於週期中期價格時，顯然，我們正在產生更多的現金，並且我們正在向股東返還更多的現金，現在已經超過 50%。但這是由我們對公司的再投資率驅動的，我們承諾只投資於我們投資組合中成本最低的供應品。

The next question comes from Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Devin McDermott。

So I wanted to go back to the Lower 48. It was helpful detail before on some of the efficiencies that you're seeing there. I think one of the other drivers of the strength in production that you called out in the prepared remarks was well performance beating your expectations. Can you talk a little bit more explicitly about what you're seeing there and if there's any development changes that you've made driving that uplift?

所以我想回到 Lower 48。之前關於您在那裡看到的一些效率的詳細信息很有幫助。我認為您在準備好的發言中提到的生產實力的其他驅動因素之一是超出您預期的良好表現。您能否更明確地談談您在那裡看到的內容，以及您是否進行了任何開發更改來推動這種提升？

Yes. Devin, this is Nick. You're right. Strong well performance was definitely a contributing factor for Q1. If I take you back to the Q4 call, I had mentioned that our well performance was meeting or exceeding-type curve expectations, and we continue to see that trend in Q1. So that's very encouraging. No overall development changes. We're just seeing very promising results across all assets. It is just not the Permian as well.

是的。德文，這是尼克。你說得對。強勁的良好表現絕對是第一季度的一個促成因素。如果我帶你回到第 4 季度電話會議，我曾提到我們的良好表現達到或超過類型曲線預期，我們在第 1 季度繼續看到這種趨勢。所以這非常令人鼓舞。沒有整體發展變化。我們只是在所有資產上看到了非常有希望的結果。它也不是二疊紀。

And as I mentioned earlier, the completion and drilling efficiency has allowed us to accelerate some wells earlier into Q1, and so we're seeing that production come into play. And then on the Eagle Ford stabilization plant that we've updated, the team just did a remarkable job in sheltering the amount of downtime in Q1. So we had less DT, but overall, a very strong quarter.

正如我之前提到的，完井和鑽井效率使我們能夠在第一季度早些時候加速一些油井，因此我們看到生產開始發揮作用。然後在我們更新的 Eagle Ford 穩定裝置上，該團隊在避免第一季度的停機時間方面做得非常出色。所以我們的 DT 較少，但總體而言，這是一個非常強勁的季度。

The next question comes from Josh Silverstein with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Silverstein。

Just some questions around potential LNG opportunities in the future. You mentioned at the Analyst Day that you have options around Port Arthur Phase 2, 3 and 4 and even at (inaudible) as well. Can you just give us some more details around the options? Does it need to be at the 30% like you did in Phase I for Port Arthur? Or could it be 10% or some other agreement there? Could it be before or after FID as well? And then just along the same lines because there will already be some infrastructure in the ground for Phase 1, will the capital outlay for Phase 2 or 3 be less because of that?

只是關於未來潛在液化天然氣機會的一些問題。您在分析師日提到您在亞瑟港第 2、3 和 4 期附近有選擇權，甚至在（聽不清）也有選擇權。你能給我們一些關於選項的更多細節嗎？是否需要像您在亞瑟港的第一階段那樣達到 30%？還是可以是 10% 或其他協議？也可以在 FID 之前或之後嗎？然後沿著同樣的路線，因為第一階段已經有一些基礎設施，第二或第三階段的資本支出會因此減少嗎？

Yes. So I think we laid this out pretty well at our analyst meeting. So for Port Arthur, we've got options on both equity and offtake for future phases. Those can be executed either for equity offtake or both as they present themselves through time. We also have some options on the West Coast of Mexico at Energy coastal Azul on Phase 2. And so those are long-dated options that we continue to look at.

是的。所以我認為我們在分析師會議上很好地闡述了這一點。因此，對於亞瑟港，我們有未來階段的股權和承購選擇權。隨著時間的推移，它們可以為股權收購或兩者兼而有之。我們在墨西哥西海岸的 Energy coastal Azul 第二階段也有一些選擇。因此，這些是我們繼續關注的長期選擇。

I talked a bit about Phase 2 earlier in the call. And so there need to be some pretty unique opportunities on that as we think about that right now. Now as we think about future phases we have structured our investment in Phase 1, such that we benefit from the economies of scale for future phases on our Phase 1 investment. So future phases actually benefit Phase 1.

我在電話會議的早些時候談到了第 2 階段。因此，正如我們現在考慮的那樣，需要有一些非常獨特的機會。現在，當我們考慮未來階段時，我們已經構建了第一階段的投資，這樣我們就可以從第一階段投資的未來階段的規模經濟中受益。所以未來的階段實際上有利於第一階段。

The next question comes from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Maybe this is for, Nick. Nick in the investor day, (inaudible) you are talking about 2023, the shale oil production of 1 million barrels per day. And in the first quarter, you're already there. Does that means that for the rest of the year that the Lower 48 shale oil and 1 million together will be pretty stretched? Or that, that number is somewhat conservative now?

也許這是為了，尼克。尼克在投資者日，（聽不清）你說的是 2023 年，頁岩油產量為每天 100 萬桶。在第一季度，你已經在那裡了。這是否意味著在今年餘下的時間裡，Lower 48 頁岩油和 100 萬個頁岩油將相當緊張？或者說，這個數字現在有些保守？

Yes, Paul, this is Nick. You're right. I mean, we had a very strong performance in Q1, as we just described. As you look at the future quarters of this year, we've got some larger pad projects, longer horizontal wells. And kind of put that in context, we've got 80% of our 2023 Permian wells are 2 miles or greater as we've got a fairly large portion that are of the 3 miles. But you're going to see kind of small variations. But overall, that's going to be relatively flat. But I'll leave you with this pause. Our plan will deliver at least mid-single digits for Lower 48.

是的，保羅，這是尼克。你說得對。我的意思是，正如我們剛才所描述的，我們在第一季度的表現非常強勁。展望今年的未來幾個季度，我們有一些更大的平台項目、更長的水平井。把它放在上下文中，我們有 80% 的 2023 年二疊紀井是 2 英里或更大，因為我們有相當大的一部分是 3 英里。但是你會看到一些小的變化。但總的來說，這將相對平穩。但我會留給你這個暫停。我們的計劃將為 Lower 48 帶來至少中個位數的收入。

The next question comes from Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Scott Hanold。

I just wonder if you could provide some updated commentary if you have any on Venezuela. About a month ago, there was some talks about kind of easing oil sanctions there. And you all have a potential big asset or at least valued that at one point in time, were looking to extract. Is there any update on that? Or is there any kind of color you can talk about like the progress and remind us of the value there?

我只是想知道你是否可以提供一些關於委內瑞拉的最新評論。大約一個月前，那裡有一些關於放鬆石油製裁的討論。你們都擁有一項潛在的大資產，或者至少在某個時間點對它進行了估價，正在尋求開採。有什麼更新嗎？或者有什麼顏色你可以談論，比如進步，提醒我們那裡的價值？

Yes, Scott, yes, we're right in the middle of all those conversations, as you might imagine, including the most recent conversations around the (inaudible) refining assets. We're in the queue, we're in the -- right in the middle of anything that would happen there. We have -- as a reminder, an ICC judgment of $2 billion. We've collected about $700 million on that judgment to date. So we have an outstanding -- what they owe us on that particular judgment.

是的，斯科特，是的，正如你想像的那樣，我們正處於所有這些對話的中間，包括最近圍繞（聽不清）煉油資產的對話。我們在排隊，我們在——就在任何可能發生的事情的中間。提醒一下，國際刑事法院的判決為 20 億美元。迄今為止，我們已根據該判決收取了大約 7 億美元。所以我們有一個未決的——他們在那個特定的判斷上欠我們什麼。

We're in an appeal process with (inaudible) which is the other tribunal, and that's an $8 billion potential award coming. Now there's some overlap between the two, so you can't necessarily add the two together. But I guess the point is there was a lot of money. And we're hard at trying to get some resolution of that.

我們正在與另一個法庭（聽不清）進行上訴，這是一個 80 億美元的潛在裁決。現在兩者之間有一些重疊，所以你不一定要把兩者加在一起。但我想關鍵是有很多錢。我們正在努力嘗試解決這個問題。

And the recent news out of the judge and the U.S. government around CITCO is certainly helpful in that regard. It looks like despite the sanctions that are on the Venezuelans and on U.S. companies for doing work in Venezuela, there's a little bit of -- some light developing at the end of that tunnel, and we're right in the middle of it all.

最近法官和美國政府關於 CITCO 的消息在這方面肯定有幫助。看起來儘管委內瑞拉人和在委內瑞拉開展工作的美國公司受到製裁，但在隧道的盡頭有一點——一些曙光在發展，而我們就在這一切的中間。

The next question comes from Alastair Syme with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Alastair Syme。

In your remarks, beginning on the Lower 48, you mentioned about infrastructure build. And I was really just interested to try and understand across the Lower 48, but I guess, especially in the Permian, what's the sort of ratio of capital that's going into infrastructure versus drilling? I guess, it changes over the life of the assets. So I'm just kind of intrigued what's the point of asset like are we in terms of that ratio?

在您的發言中，從 Lower 48 開始，您提到了基礎設施建設。我真的很想嘗試了解美國本土 48 州，但我想，尤其是在二疊紀，基礎設施與鑽探的資本比例是多少？我想，它會隨著資產的生命週期而改變。所以我只是有點好奇，就該比率而言，我們的資產意義何在？

Yes. I'm not sure the exact ratio. Maybe Nick might have some numbers, but I think most of what we're doing is large pad development with not single well facilities, but central facilities supporting those large pads. I don't know what the split between drilling and infrastructure spend is. I can let Nick have a comment, but I don't think it's much different than what we've been doing for the past few years.

是的。我不確定確切的比例。也許 Nick 可能有一些數字，但我認為我們正在做的大部分工作是大型油田開發，而不是單井設施，而是支持這些大型油田的中央設施。我不知道鑽井和基礎設施支出之間的差距是多少。我可以讓 Nick 發表評論，但我認為這與我們過去幾年一直在做的事情沒有太大不同。

Yes, Alastair, it's very limited as far as on the infrastructure spend, most of your expenditures on drilling and completions in the Permian as an example.

是的，阿拉斯泰爾，就基礎設施支出而言，它非常有限，例如二疊紀的大部分鑽井和完井支出。

The next question comes from Raphael DuBois with Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Raphael DuBois。

I just have one question about the working capital deterioration in 1Q. I was wondering if you could tell us how much of it is due to some Norwegian cash tax catch-up? And what is it to expect for the rest of the year?

我只有一個關於第一季度營運資金惡化的問題。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們其中有多少是由於挪威的一些現金稅追趕造成的？對今年餘下的時間有何期待？

Yes, sure. Happy to talk about working capital. So if you look at working capital for Q1, you can see that in the supplementary documents we put out on our website, Q1 was about a $100 million use of working capital. For Q2, we'd expect that to be just over $1 billion. And as you rightly noted, that's associated with Norwegian tax payments, which is normal for operators in Norway.

是的，當然。很高興談論營運資金。因此，如果您查看第一季度的營運資金，您會發現在我們網站上發布的補充文件中，第一季度使用了大約 1 億美元的營運資金。對於第二季度，我們預計將超過 10 億美元。正如您正確指出的那樣，這與挪威的納稅有關，這對於挪威的運營商來說是正常的。

We accrued those in 2022. They're payable in the second quarter of 2023. And then looking for the rest of the year, assuming we don't see FX rates move materially for the remainder of the year, we'd expect -- we wouldn't really expect any material working capital movements across Q3 or Q4. So I hope that helps for kind of full year view.

我們在 2022 年累積了這些費用。它們將在 2023 年第二季度支付。然後展望今年剩餘時間，假設我們沒有看到今年剩餘時間的匯率發生重大變化，我們預計 -我們真的不希望第三季度或第四季度有任何實質性的營運資金流動。所以我希望這有助於了解全年情況。

The next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

My question is on shareholder return plan. Specifically, what do you all view sort of in broad terms as an optimal quarterly payout given, I guess, now how even more volatile the commodity market continues to be and looking at your most recent, I guess, the payout was a bit over 100%?

我的問題是關於股東回報計劃。具體來說，你們都認為什麼是廣義上的最佳季度支出，我猜，現在商品市場繼續波動，看看你們最近的支出，我猜，支出略高於 100 %?

Yes. Well, I think, Neil, you have to kind of go back to how we set the VROC in the first quarter. That was actually set in the third quarter of last year at a $100 price environment. So we probably had -- on the rate of all -- a little bit higher distribution in this quarter and then it gets more ratable as we go through second, third and fourth quarter as we deliver the $11 billion that we've targeted for this year. And that's evidenced by how we set the VROC for the third quarter at $0.60 a share.

是的。好吧，我認為，尼爾，你必須回到我們在第一季度如何設置 VROC。這實際上是在去年第三季度以 100 美元的價格環境設定的。因此，我們可能 - 總的來說 - 本季度的分配率略高，然後隨著我們交付了我們為此設定的 110 億美元的第二、第三和第四季度，它的評級會更高年。我們將第三季度的 VROC 定為每股 0.60 美元就證明了這一點。

Our last question comes from Leo Mariani with ROTH MKM.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Leo Mariani 和 ROTH MKM。

Obviously, strong results out of COP today, you enumerated a couple of reasons. The first quarter production beat. It sounds like some wells came on early, and well results continue to be very strong. But just wanted to dive in a little bit on the maintenance side. I know you guys kind of talked about 35,000 BOE per day of maintenance in the quarter that actually come to fruition. Maybe that number was a bit different. And then can you talk about maintenance rest of the year you had 10,000 to 15,000 expected in 2Q, but any expectations for 3Q or 4Q?

顯然，今天 COP 的結果很好，你列舉了幾個原因。第一季度產量超預期。聽起來有些油井很早就開始了，而且結果仍然非常強勁。但只是想在維護方面深入了解一下。我知道你們談到了本季度每天 35,000 BOE 的維護，實際上已經實現了。也許那個數字有點不同。然後你能談談今年剩餘時間的維護嗎？你在第二季度預計有 10,000 到 15,000 人，但對第三季度或第四季度有任何預期嗎？

Yes. Thanks. It's Dominic here. So you're right. We did anticipate about 35,000 barrels a day of turnaround and maintenance impact in the first quarter. That actually came in at 25,000, so 10,000 lower. That was partly because of the efficiency that Nick talked about at the Lower 48. The Eagle Ford sugar log stabilized expansion went really well, and the team did a great job sheltering some of that.

是的。謝謝。我是多米尼克。所以你是對的。我們確實預計第一季度每天將產生約 35,000 桶的周轉和維護影響。實際上是 25,000，因此減少了 10,000。部分原因是尼克在 Lower 48 談到的效率。Eagle Ford sugar log 穩定擴張非常順利，團隊在保護其中一些方面做得很好。

Then there was a little bit of timing there around Qatar turnarounds as well. So we had 25,000 barrels a day impact in the first quarter. We still expect a full year average impact from our turnarounds of about 15,000 barrels a day equivalent. Bill said, second quarter, I think, as he mentioned, we expect to be 10,000 to 15,000. And there will also be some standard sort of seasonal downtime in the second and third quarter we typically see in Norway and Alaska and APLNG. But all of that's reflected in our new guidance, 1.78 million to 1.8 million barrels a day. for the full year.

然後卡塔爾的轉機也有一些時機。所以我們在第一季度每天有 25,000 桶的影響。我們仍然預計我們的周轉將產生全年平均影響，相當於每天約 15,000 桶。比爾說，我認為，正如他所說，第二季度我們預計將達到 10,000 到 15,000。在第二和第三季度，我們通常會在挪威、阿拉斯加和 APLNG 看到一些標準的季節性停機時間。但所有這些都反映在我們的新指導中，即每天 178 萬至 180 萬桶。全年。

We have no...

我們沒有...

Thank you, everyone for being here today. We appreciate...

謝謝大家今天來到這裡。我們很感激...

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。