康菲 (COP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 ConocoPhillips Earnings Conference Call. My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加康菲石油公司 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。我叫莉茲，今天我將擔任您的接線員。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Phil Gresh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Phil Gresh。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Liz, and welcome to everyone to our second quarter 2023 earnings conference call.

謝謝 Liz，歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。

On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including: Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Tim Leach, Adviser to the CEO; Bill Bullock, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Dominic Macklon, Executive Vice President of Strategy, Sustainability & Technology; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48; Andy O'Brien, Senior Vice President of Global Operations; Kirk Johnson, Senior Vice President, Lower 48 Assets & Operations; and Will Giraud, Senior Vice President, Corporate Planning & Development. Ryan and Bill will kick off the call with opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions.

今天參加電話會議的有康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾位成員，包括： 董事長兼首席執行官瑞安·蘭斯 (Ryan Lance)；蒂姆·利奇（Tim Leach），首席執行官顧問；比爾·布洛克，執行副總裁兼首席財務官； Dominic Macklon，戰略、可持續發展與技術執行副總裁； Nick Olds，Lower 48 執行副總裁；安迪·奧布萊恩 (Andy O'Brien)，全球運營高級副總裁； Kirk Johnson，Lower 48 資產與運營高級副總裁；以及企業規劃與發展高級副總裁 Will Giraud。瑞安和比爾將以開場白開始電話會議，之後團隊將回答您的問題。

A few quick reminders. First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation, which you can find on the Investor Relations website. Second, during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. We will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website.

一些快速提醒。首先，除了今天的發布之外，我們還發布了補充財務材料和幻燈片演示文稿，您可以在投資者關係網站上找到這些材料。其次，在這次電話會議中，我們將根據當前預期做出前瞻性陳述。由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期向 SEC 提交的文件中提到的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。我們將參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的調節表。

So with that, I will turn the call over to Ryan.

因此，我會將電話轉給瑞安。

Thank you, Phil, and thank you to everyone joining our second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. It was certainly another busy quarter for ConocoPhillips. In April, we hosted our Analyst and Investor Meeting in New York City, where we laid out our 10-year strategic and financial plan. And we committed to you that we would keep working to make the plan even better. And we've done that again this quarter.

謝謝 Phil，也感謝參加我們 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議的所有人。對於康菲石油公司來說，這無疑是另一個繁忙的季度。 4 月份，我們在紐約舉辦了分析師和投資者會議，制定了 10 年戰略和財務計劃。我們向您承諾，我們將繼續努力使該計劃變得更好。本季度我們再次這樣做了。

We executed an agreement to purchase the remaining 50% of Surmont, which we expect to close in the fourth quarter. Surmont is a long-life, low-decline and low capital intensity asset that we know very well. In the current $80 per barrel WTI price environment, we expect incremental free cash flow from the additional 50% interest to approach $1 billion in 2024. We expect first production in early 2024 from Pad 267, our first new pad since 2016. And we see debottlenecking potential at the facility to further improve our cash flows.

我們簽署了購買 Surmont 剩餘 50% 股份的協議，預計將於第四季度完成。 Surmont 是我們非常了解的長壽命、低衰退和低資本密集度的資產。在當前WTI 每桶80 美元的價格環境下，我們預計2024 年額外50% 利息帶來的自由現金流增量將接近10 億美元。我們預計Pad 267 將於2024 年初首次生產，這是我們自2016年以來的第一個新平台。消除該設施的瓶頸潛力，進一步改善我們的現金流。

We also continue to progress our global LNG strategy. In the quarter, we finalized the acquisition of our interest in the Qatar North Field South joint venture. And in North America, we executed agreements for 2.2 million tonnes per annum of offtake at the Saguaro LNG project on the West Coast of Mexico. And in Germany, we can confirm we have secured a total of 2.8 million tonnes per annum of regasification capacity at German LNG. And while it's only been a few months since FID at Port Arthur, we are further progressing our offtake placement opportunities in both Europe and Asia.

我們還繼續推進我們的全球液化天然氣戰略。本季度，我們完成了對卡塔爾北油田南合資企業權益的收購。在北美，我們在墨西哥西海岸的 Saguaro 液化天然氣項目上簽署了每年 220 萬噸的承購協議。在德國，我們可以確認德國液化天然氣公司已獲得每年 280 萬噸的再氣化能力。雖然亞瑟港的最終投資決定才過去幾個月，但我們正在進一步推進在歐洲和亞洲的承購安排機會。

Now shifting to the quarter. While commodity prices were volatile, ConocoPhillips continued to deliver strong underlying performance. Once again, we had record global and Lower 48 production. And we raised our full year production guidance for the second straight quarter. This was achieved through continued capital efficiency improvements as the midpoint of our full year capital guidance remains unchanged.

現在轉向季度。儘管大宗商品價格波動較大，但康菲石油公司繼續實現強勁的基本業績。我們再一次創下了全球和 Lower 48 產量的紀錄。我們連續第二個季度提高了全年生產指引。這是通過持續提高資本效率實現的，因為我們全年資本指導的中點保持不變。

We continue to deliver on our returns-focused value proposition. We have distributed $5.8 billion through dividends and buybacks year-to-date, putting us well on track to achieve our planned $11 billion return of capital for 2023. And we did this while funding the shorter- and longer-term organic growth opportunities that we see across the entire portfolio.

我們繼續踐行以回報為中心的價值主張。今年迄今為止，我們已通過股息和回購分配了58 億美元，這使我們有望實現2023 年計劃的110 億美元資本回報。我們在實現這一目標的同時，還為短期和長期有機增長機會提供資金查看整個投資組合。

So in conclusion, our deep and our durable and diversified asset base continues to get better and better. And we are well positioned to generate competitive returns and cash flow for decades to come. Now let me turn the call over to Bill to cover our second quarter performance in more detail.

總而言之，我們深厚、持久和多元化的資產基礎繼續變得越來越好。我們處於有利位置，可以在未來幾十年內產生有競爭力的回報和現金流。現在讓我將電話轉給比爾，更詳細地介紹我們第二季度的業績。

Thanks, Ryan. Diving into second quarter performance, we generated $1.84 per share in adjusted earnings. We recognize that this result was below consensus, which we primarily attribute to transitory price capture headwinds in Lower 48 natural gas and Alaska crude. Now based on strip pricing for the second half, we expect price capture to normalize and be consistent with our previous full year guidance of $22 billion in CFO at $80 WTI and our published full year sensitivities.

謝謝，瑞安。深入研究第二季度的業績，我們的調整後每股收益為 1.84 美元。我們認識到這一結果低於共識，我們主要將其歸因於 Lower 48 天然氣和阿拉斯加原油的短暫價格捕獲阻力。現在，根據下半年的帶鋼定價，我們預計價格捕獲將正常化，並與我們之前以 80 美元的 WTI 計算 CFO 220 億美元的全年指導以及我們公佈的全年敏感性保持一致。

Moving to production. We set another record in the second quarter, producing 1,805,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 6% underlying year-over-year growth with solid execution across the entire portfolio. Planned turnarounds were successfully completed in Norway and Qatar.

轉向生產。我們在第二季度再創紀錄，每天生產 1,805,000 桶石油當量，同比增長 6%，整個投資組合執行力強勁。挪威和卡塔爾的計劃周轉已成功完成。

And Lower 48 production was also a record, averaging 1,063,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, including 709,000 from the Permian, 235,000 from the Eagle Ford and 104,000 from the Bakken. Lower 48 underlying production grew 8% year-on-year with new wells online and strong well performance relative to our expectations across our asset base.

Lower 48 的產量也創紀錄，平均每天生產 1,063,000 桶油當量，其中二疊紀盆地產量 709,000 桶，Eagle Ford 產量 235,000 桶，巴肯產量 104,000 桶。下 48 個基礎產量同比增長 8%，新井上線，且油井表現相對於我們對資產基礎的預期強勁。

Moving to cash flows. Second quarter CFO was $4.7 billion at an average WTI price of $74 per barrel. This includes APLNG distributions of $405 million. And in the second quarter, we also received $200 million in proceeds, primarily related to a prior year disposition.

轉向現金流。按 WTI 平均價格每桶 74 美元計算，第二季度 CFO 為 47 億美元。其中包括 4.05 億美元的 APLNG 分配。在第二季度，我們還收到了 2 億美元的收益，主要與上一年的處置有關。

Second quarter capital expenditures were $2.9 billion, which included $624 million for long-cycle projects. Now through the first half, we have now funded $700 million for Port Arthur LNG of the planned $1.1 billion for the year, which we expect to lead to a step-down in overall capital in the second half. We also expect to see a step-down in Lower 48 capital in the second half of the year. And as a result, we have narrowed our full year capital guidance range to $10.8 billion to $11.2 billion with no change to the midpoint.

第二季度資本支出為 29 億美元，其中包括用於長周期項目的 6.24 億美元。截至今年上半年，我們已為亞瑟港液化天然氣公司提供了 7 億美元的資金，而今年計劃的資金為 11 億美元，我們預計這將導致下半年總體資本的減少。我們還預計下半年 48 州的資本將會減少。因此，我們將全年資本指導範圍縮小至 108 億美元至 112 億美元，中點不變。

Regarding returns of capital, we returned $2.7 billion to shareholders in the second quarter. This was via $1.3 billion in share buybacks and $1.4 billion in ordinary dividends and VROC payments. And we announced a fourth quarter VROC of $0.60 per share, which has us on track to deliver our $11 billion target for total return of capital in 2023.

在資本回報方面，我們第二季度向股東返還了 27 億美元。這是通過 13 億美元的股票回購以及 14 億美元的普通股息和 VROC 支付實現的。我們宣布第四季度 VROC 為每股 0.60 美元，這使我們有望實現 2023 年 110 億美元的資本總回報目標。

Turning to guidance. We forecast third quarter production to be in the range of 1.78 million to 1.82 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, which includes 20,000 barrels a day of planned seasonal turnarounds, primarily in Alaska and Europe. We have also increased the midpoint of our full year production guidance. Our new full year range is 1.8 million to 1.81 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 15,000 barrels per day from the prior midpoint of 1.78 million to 1.8 million previously. For APLNG, we expect distributions of $400 million in the third quarter and $1.9 billion for the full year.

轉向指導。我們預計第三季度產量將在每天 178 萬桶至 182 萬桶油當量之間，其中包括計劃的季節性產量每天 20,000 桶，主要在阿拉斯加和歐洲。我們還提高了全年生產指導的中點。我們新的全年產量範圍為每天 180 萬桶至 181 萬桶油當量，比之前的中值 178 萬桶至 180 萬桶每天增加 15,000 桶。對於 APLNG，我們預計第三季度的分配額為 4 億美元，全年分配額為 19 億美元。

Consistent with our higher production guidance for the year, we have raised our full year adjusted operating cost and our DD&A guidance by $100 million each to $8.3 billion and $8.2 billion, respectively. We have also lowered our corporate cost guidance by $100 million to $800 million due to higher interest income. And finally, as a reminder, all guidance excludes any impact from announced but not closed acquisitions such as Surmont and APLNG.

與我們更高的今年產量指導一致，我們將全年調整後運營成本和 DD&A 指導各提高了 1 億美元，分別達到 83 億美元和 82 億美元。由於利息收入增加，我們還將企業成本指導降低了 1 億美元至 8 億美元。最後，提醒一下，所有指引均排除了已宣布但尚未完成的收購（例如 Surmont 和 APLNG）的任何影響。

So to wrap up, we had another solid operational quarter. We're confident in our outlook, leading to our increase in full year production guidance. We continue to progress our strategic initiatives across the portfolio. And we expect to return $11 billion to shareholders this year.

總而言之，我們又度過了一個穩健的運營季度。我們對前景充滿信心，因此我們提高了全年產量指導值。我們繼續推進整個投資組合的戰略舉措。我們預計今年將向股東返還 110 億美元。

Now that concludes our prepared remarks. I'll turn it back over to the operator to start the Q&A.

現在我們準備好的發言結束了。我會將其轉回給接線員以開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Neil Mehta。

Want to build on Slide 7 here on price realizations. As you mentioned, a little weaker in Lower 48 gas and Alaska. You had mentioned some of the stuff is transitory and it's moving in your direction in Q3. Can you provide a little more color there?

希望在幻燈片 7 的基礎上進一步了解價格實現。正如您提到的，Lower 48 天然氣和阿拉斯加的產量稍弱。您曾提到有些事情是暫時的，並且在第三季度將朝著您的方向發展。你能在那裡提供更多的顏色嗎？

Yes, absolutely, Neil. So obviously, second quarter was a bit challenging on our capture rates. And as you noted, it's particularly Lower 48 gas and Alaska crude. And I'll give you some details on each. But the punchline here is that we're already seeing Lower 48 gas differentials and elastic crude pricing returning to more normal levels in the third quarter.

是的，絕對如此，尼爾。顯然，第二季度我們的捕獲率有點具有挑戰性。正如您所指出的，尤其是 Lower 48 天然氣和阿拉斯加原油。我將為您提供每項的一些詳細信息。但這裡的亮點是，我們已經看到 48 個州的天然氣價差和彈性原油價格在第三季度恢復到更正常的水平。

And as I mentioned, based on strip and differentials for the rest of the year, we remain comfortable with our framework reference of $22 billion in CFO at $80 WTI and $3 Henry Hub that we provided at the beginning of the year, along with our published full year price sensitivities.

正如我所提到的，基於今年剩餘時間的條帶和差異，我們仍然對我們在年初提供的 220 億美元 CFO、80 美元 WTI 和 3 美元亨利中心的框架參考感到滿意，以及我們發布的全年價格敏感性。

But let me start with Lower 48 gas. Our slides show that our second quarter capture rate was 68% of Henry Hub. That's down from 85% in the first quarter, which compares to our expectation of roughly 80% capture for the full year that we laid out a couple of quarters ago. And as you probably recall, I said that we expected Lower 48 capture to be volatile quarter-to-quarter this year. And we are certainly seeing that.

但讓我從 Lower 48 氣體開始。我們的幻燈片顯示，第二季度 Henry Hub 的捕獲率為 68%。這比第一季度的 85% 有所下降，而我們幾個季度前預計全年捕獲率約為 80%。您可能還記得，我說過我們預計今年 48 州的捕獲量將出現季度波動。我們確實看到了這一點。

Now the 68% rate in the second quarter was mostly driven by what we're seeing in still-wide Permian differentials relative to Henry Hub for the first half of the year as well as the absence of some strength in SoCal and Bakken that we saw in the first quarter, which really explains the quarter-to-quarter change.

現在，第二季度 68% 的增長率主要是由於我們在今年上半年看到的二疊紀盆地相對於亨利中心的差異仍然很大，以及我們所看到的南加州和巴肯缺乏一些實力。第一季度，這確實解釋了季度與季度的變化。

Now looking at third quarter, Permian differentials have narrowed back to more normal ranges. That's with some pipeline takeaway improvements and additional debottlenecking ahead. And SoCal is looking a bit better as well. But clearly, the story here is Permian diffs. That's what matters the most.

現在來看第三季度，二疊紀差異已縮小至更正常的範圍。這是通過一些管道外賣改進和額外的消除瓶頸來實現的。南加州的情況看起來也好一些。但顯然，這裡的故事是二疊紀的差異。這才是最重要的。

Now on Alaska crude, this one's a bit more unique to ConocoPhillips. Capture rates slipped to 97% in the second quarter from 101% in the first quarter. And that's largely timing-related. With some of our second quarter cargoes, they were priced when ANS was trading at a discount to Brent.

現在，在阿拉斯加原油上，這對於康菲石油公司來說更加獨特。捕獲率從第一季度的 101% 下滑至第二季度的 97%。這很大程度上與時間相關。我們第二季度的一些貨物的定價是在 ANS 交易價格低於布倫特原油價格時定價的。

But as you can see on the screen right now, ANS is back to premium to Brent, more towards historic levels. So I'd say when we look at this and pull it out all together, we remain encouraged by our recent capture rates. And we're confident in our full year estimate sensitivities. And we're pretty constructive on the second half of the year, Neil.

但正如您現在在屏幕上看到的那樣，ANS 又回到了布倫特原油溢價，更接近歷史水平。所以我想說，當我們審視這一點並將其全部拿出來時，我們仍然對最近的捕獲率感到鼓舞。我們對全年估計的敏感性充滿信心。尼爾，我們對下半年的預測非常有建設性。

Thanks, Bill, really appreciate that. The follow-up is a small bump here in production guide. It's been 2 quarters in a row where Lower 48 crude oil has come in strong, above 560,000 barrels. So just curious on the driver of the bump, was it in the Lower 48? Or is it throughout the portfolio? And just your thoughts on production momentum over the course of the year.

謝謝，比爾，真的很感激。後續是製作指南中的一個小顛簸。 Lower 48 原油價格連續兩個季度保持強勁，超過 560,000 桶。所以只是好奇撞車的司機，是在 Lower 48 嗎？還是貫穿整個投資組合？以及您對這一年生產勢頭的看法。

Yes. Thanks, Neil. It's Dominic here. Yes, we're pretty pleased with production performance. I think it's really across the board we're seeing everything perform well. But certainly, it is the Lower 48 that is standing out a little bit more. And even -- and Nick will talk to that in a minute. So you're right, yes, that's the second quarter that we've increased in a row.

是的。謝謝，尼爾。我是多米尼克。是的，我們對生產性能非常滿意。我認為我們確實看到一切都表現良好。但可以肯定的是，Lower 48 的表現更為突出。甚至——尼克稍後會談到這一點。所以你是對的，是的，這是我們連續增長的第二個季度。

Our production guidance, we're up 25,000 BOEs equivalent since the beginning of the year. And what's interesting, about 80% of that increase is actually oil. And so our full year underlying growth is expected to be 3% to 4% this year. And that would be 7% to 8% in the Lower 48. Now there is a lot of focus on product mix right now in the sector.

自年初以來，我們的產量指引增加了 25,000 桶油當量。有趣的是，其中大約 80% 的增量實際上是石油。因此，我們今年全年的基本增長預計為 3% 至 4%。在 48 個州以下地區，這一比例將達到 7% 到 8%。現在該行業非常關注產品組合。

So let me just say that we expect our product mix to be consistent over the year also. So those growth numbers really work on both the BOE and the barrel of oil basis. And we can get some noise on mix from quarter-to-quarter in the Lower 48, depending which particular pads are brought online across our basins. But that will average out over the year to a consistent product mix.

因此，我只想說，我們希望我們的產品組合在這一年中也能保持一致。因此，這些增長數字確實適用於英國央行和每桶石油的基礎。我們可以在下 48 個季度的混合中得到一些噪音，具體取決於我們盆地中哪些特定的墊上線。但這將在一年內平均達到一致的產品組合。

So for example, if you look at our second half 2022 compared to first half of this year, we've had very consistent product mix in Lower 48, around 54% oil. So yes, we're pleased with the production progress. Like I said, really the Permian and the Lower 48 is driving that. So Nick, do you want to talk a little bit about that?

例如，如果你將 2022 年下半年與今年上半年進行比較，就會發現我們在 48 州下游地區的產品結構非常一致，約為 54% 的石油。所以，是的，我們對生產進度感到滿意。正如我所說，二疊紀盆地和下 48 盆地確實是推動這一趨勢的因素。尼克，你想談談這個嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Dominic. Yes, so there are probably two main reasons for that driver for the top end of the range on Lower 48. First, we had modest accelerations of activity kind of late Q1 and 2Q, therefore, accelerating some wells online and then strong well performance.

是的。謝謝，多米尼克。是的，因此，導致Lower 48 範圍高端的驅動因素可能有兩個主要原因。首先，我們在第一季度末和第二季度的活動略有加速，因此，加速了一些在線油井的運行，然後油井表現強勁。

Now the accelerations that I mentioned was resulting of improved drilling and completion efficiency. So as I mentioned at the Analyst and Investor Meeting, we continue to realize improved efficiencies in 2023, therefore, accelerating some of the wells. So that's point number one.

我提到的加速是鑽井和完井效率提高的結果。正如我在分析師和投資者會議上提到的，我們將在 2023 年繼續提高效率，從而加速一些油井的開發。這是第一點。

And then if you look at the overall strong well performance, we're seeing that across the board. So we're either at 2022 performance or exceeding our type curves in certain areas as well. So that's, as Dominic mentioned, very encouraging.

如果你看看整體強勁的油井表現，我們會全面看到這一點。因此，我們要么達到 2022 年的業績，要么在某些領域超過我們的類型曲線。正如多米尼克所說，這非常令人鼓舞。

I will point out a couple of points on the drilling and completion efficiency that's making a large difference. We continue to realize efficiency improvements, for example, in our Permian real-time Drilling Intelligence Group, where, Neil, we have 24/7 real-time monitoring, where we can optimize the rig program. We can troubleshoot across the entire Permian rig fleet and then share best practices across the rigs as well.

我將指出有關鑽井和完井效率的幾點，這對鑽井和完井效率有很大影響。我們不斷提高效率，例如，在我們的二疊紀實時鑽井情報小組中，尼爾，我們有 24/7 實時監控，我們可以優化鑽機程序。我們可以對整個二疊紀鑽機隊進行故障排除，然後在各個鑽機之間分享最佳實踐。

That's resulting in 10% improvement in ROP. And then we continue to high-grade rigs across the Lower 48 to drive and improve operational efficiency. And then on the fracking side, simul-frac, remote frac, and we're testing out some new technology down in the Eagle Ford to continue to drive efficiency, so very encouraging.

這使得 ROP 提高了 10%。然後，我們繼續在 Lower 48 地區使用高級鑽機，以推動和提高運營效率。然後在壓裂方面，同步壓裂、遠程壓裂，我們正在 Eagle Ford 測試一些新技術，以繼續提高效率，所以非常令人鼓舞。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Richardson with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Richardson。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the Mexico Pacific offtake agreement. Conceivably, you have a lot of (inaudible) at looking at these types of deals. So why was this the right project for you? And also, what do you see the path to sort of FID and timing there? I would love to hear a little bit more about that and how it fits in the broader strategy.

我想知道您是否可以談談墨西哥太平洋承購協議。可以想像，您對這些類型的交易有很多（聽不清）。那麼為什麼這個項目適合您呢？另外，您認為 FID 的路徑和時機是什麼？我很想听到更多關於這一點以及它如何適應更廣泛的戰略的信息。

Well, maybe, Steve, I'll take some of the broader strategy and then turn it specifically over to Bill for the Saguaro project itself. But as we tried to lay out at AIM, kind of looking at a high level, we think from an energy transition perspective and just the confidence in what we're really good at on the LNG side, we wanted to expand that piece of our business. So we set out a couple of years ago to go do that. I think it's consistent with the Qatari volumes, of course, getting Port Arthur to FID and then now the Saguaro opportunity, specifically on the West Coast.

好吧，史蒂夫，也許我會採取一些更廣泛的策略，然後將其專門交給比爾負責仙人掌項目本身。但當我們試圖在 AIM 上佈局時，從高層次來看，我們從能源轉型的角度思考，並且對我們在液化天然氣方面真正擅長的領域充滿信心，我們希望擴大我們的這一部分商業。所以我們幾年前就開始這麼做了。當然，我認為這與卡塔爾的數量是一致的，讓亞瑟港獲得最終投資決定，然後現在是仙人掌機會，特別是在西海岸。

But it's all in service to trying to build up more -- a bigger LNG business inside the company and taking opportunities as they become available both on the equity side at Port Arthur but more importantly on the offtake side in trying to service some of the growing demand that we see coming out of Europe and Asia. I can have Bill -- Bill can talk more specifically about the Saguaro project.

但這一切都是為了在公司內部建立更大的液化天然氣業務，並抓住亞瑟港股權方面的機會，更重要的是在承購方面，試圖為一些不斷增長的企業提供服務。我們看到來自歐洲和亞洲的需求。我可以請比爾——比爾可以更具體地談論 Saguaro 項目。

Yes, sure. So as we talked at AIM, we're really focused on building up both our market and originating highly competitive supply on a pretty stair-step basis. And we're making excellent progress on both those fronts, Steve. So as Ryan mentioned, we've secured 2.8 million tonnes of regas in Germany. That supports our 2 million tonne offtake from our LNG SPAs with Qatar. That leaves 0.8 million for our commercial LNG business.

是的，當然。因此，正如我們在 AIM 上所說，我們真正專注於建立我們的市場，並在相當階梯的基礎上創造極具競爭力的供應。史蒂夫，我們在這兩個方面都取得了巨大的進展。正如 Ryan 提到的，我們在德國獲得了 280 萬噸再氣化。這支持我們從與卡塔爾的液化天然氣協議中承購 200 萬噸。這為我們的商業液化天然氣業務留下了 80 萬美元。

And putting that in perspective, that's 16% of Port Arthur LNG right there. And we are continuing to make excellent progress advancing offtake into Europe. And we've been progressing discussions with several Asian buyers, so really happy and pleased with how we're moving forward with developing market.

從長遠來看，這相當於亞瑟港液化天然氣的 16%。我們正在繼續取得巨大進展，推進歐洲業務。我們一直在與幾位亞洲買家進行討論，因此對我們在發展中市場的進展感到非常高興和滿意。

And against that backdrop, we are pretty thrilled to be adding 2.2 million tonnes of offtake on the West Coast of Mexico. That's obviously pending successful FID by Mexico Pacific. But you'll recall at AIM, we mentioned that we're really interested in adding West Coast LNG into our portfolio.

在此背景下，我們非常高興能夠在墨西哥西海岸增加 220 萬噸的承購量。這顯然有待墨西哥太平洋公司成功完成最終投資決定。但您可能還記得，在 AIM 上，我們提到我們非常有興趣將西海岸液化天然氣納入我們的產品組合。

This particular facility adds diversity to our offtake options. It avoids the Panama Canal. It's supportive of volumes into Asia. And from a supply perspective, it really does complement our offtake from Port Arthur very nicely. It creates some excellent optimization opportunities.

這個特殊的設施增加了我們承購選擇的多樣性。它避開了巴拿馬運河。這支持了亞洲的銷量。從供應角度來看，它確實很好地補充了我們從亞瑟港的承購。它創造了一些極好的優化機會。

You probably noticed it's got strong backing from very credible counterparties in addition to ConocoPhillips. And it supports a dedicated pipeline from the Permian. So that's always appreciated. It provides further takeaway optionality from the basin, which I think is helpful for Waha pricing. And it also is using ConocoPhillips' Optimized Cascade technology. So there's quite a few reasons why we like having capacity at Saguaro.

您可能注意到，除了康菲石油公司之外，它還得到了非常可靠的交易對手的大力支持。它支持來自二疊紀的專用管道。所以這總是受到讚賞。它提供了更多來自盆地的外賣選擇，我認為這對娃哈哈定價很有幫助。它還使用康菲石油公司的優化級聯技術。因此，我們喜歡 Saguaro 擁有容量的原因有很多。

Now note that this is an offtake agreement. There is not an equity component to this one. It is simply offtake. And I think the most important point that Ryan has already mentioned is we can begin to see really strong demand for LNG. And so this fits quite nicely as we're kind of laddering our build-out of market and supply.

現在請注意，這是一份承購協議。這其中沒有股權成分。這只是承購。我認為瑞安已經提到的最重要的一點是我們可以開始看到對液化天然氣的真正強勁需求。因此，這非常適合我們，因為我們正在逐步擴大市場和供應。

That's great color, Bill and Ryan. Bill, I was wondering if I could just follow up quickly on Surmont. It's been a little while since you exercised. But wondering if you could give us your latest thoughts on funding of that transaction and how you're thinking about it.

比爾和瑞安，顏色真棒。比爾，我想知道我是否可以快速跟進蘇爾蒙特。你已經有一段時間沒運動了。但想知道您是否可以向我們提供您對該交易融資的最新想法以及您的想法。

Yes, happy to. So let me just start with some overall context to how we're thinking about our cash balances and the acquisition of additional 50% interest. We ended the second quarter with a little over $7 billion of cash and short-term investments.

是的，很高興。因此，讓我首先介紹一下我們如何考慮現金餘額和額外 50% 利息的收購的總體背景。第二季度結束時，我們的現金和短期投資略高於 70 億美元。

And as we talked at AIM, that really provides strategic flexibility. It supports our investments in these mid- and longer-cycle projects and our shareholder distribution commitments. And when we look forward at the current strip, we expect that our organic sources and uses for the remainder of the year are going to be pretty balanced, Steve, and that our ending cash, absent Surmont, would be flattish with what we're seeing right now.

正如我們在 AIM 上所說，這確實提供了戰略靈活性。它支持我們對這些中長期項目的投資以及我們的股東分配承諾。當我們展望當前的地帶時，我們預計今年剩餘時間裡我們的有機資源和用途將相當平衡，史蒂夫，並且我們的期末現金（沒有蘇爾蒙特）將與我們的持平。現在就看到。

Now as Ryan mentioned, Surmont is a long-life asset. It's got a really great resource base. And it's one of these ideal assets to think about funding with debt. Because of its long-dated cash flows, you can match your assets and your liabilities pretty well with something like this. So for the Surmont transaction specifically -- and it's a bit tactical, but it's likely that we will use debt for a majority of the funding for Surmont.

正如 Ryan 提到的，Surmont 是一項長期資產。它擁有非常好的資源基礎。這是考慮債務融資的理想資產之一。由於其長期現金流，您可以通過類似的方式很好地匹配您的資產和負債。因此，具體而言，對於 Surmont 交易來說，這有點戰術性，但我們很可能會使用債務來為 Surmont 提供大部分資金。

And then I'd just wrap up by pointing out, Ryan said in his remarks that the pricing that we're seeing right now, we see strong incremental CFO from that 50% increase in working interest at Surmont. That's starting to approach $1 billion of incremental CFO next year at $80. So we're quite happy with the Surmont acquisition and quite comfortable with our funding plans.

最後，我想指出的是，Ryan 在他的講話中表示，我們現在看到的定價，我們看到 Surmont 的工作興趣增加了 50%，因此首席財務官的增長強勁。明年 CFO 增量將達到 80 美元，接近 10 億美元。因此，我們對 Surmont 的收購非常滿意，對我們的融資計劃也非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自 Doug Leggate 與美國銀行的對話。

Dom, I wonder if this is probably for you. I want to follow up on the question about well performance productivity, the terrific product production performance, the raise that you've introduced today. But I want to ask it a slightly different way. Your partner in the Permian -- specific to the Permian, I should say, has been talking about, I don't want to call it some magic formula or sauce or whatever, but their well productivity is off the charts.

Dom，我想知道這是否適合你。我想跟進一下關於良好的生產力、出色的產品生產績效以及您今天介紹的加薪的問題。但我想用稍微不同的方式來問。你在二疊紀的合作夥伴——具體到二疊紀，我應該說，一直在談論，我不想稱其為某種神奇的配方或醬汁或其他什麼，但他們的油井生產力是破紀錄的。

And you obviously are a big beneficiary of that. I'm wondering if you can comment as to whether there's any osmosis towards Conoco's operated production. And if you could maybe contrast and compare any differences you see between your 60% ownership position in the JV and your legacy position in the operated area around the Conoco assets?

您顯然是其中的一大受益者。我想知道您是否可以評論一下康菲石油公司的運營生產是否存在滲透。您是否可以對比和比較您在合資企業中的 60% 所有權地位與您在康菲石油公司資產周圍運營區域的傳統地位之間的差異？

Yes, Doug, this is Nick. I'll take a stab at it. I think you're looking at the non-operated versus operated split. Is that where you're going with that question?

是的，道格，這是尼克。我會嘗試一下。我認為您正在考慮非手術與手術的分割。這就是你問這個問題的地方嗎？

Basically, yes. Yes, that's exactly right.

基本上，是的。是的，完全正確。

Yes. So if you just take a look at that second quarter top end range performance from Lower 48, as I mentioned, we had strong performance both on accelerating the wells but also strong well performance. That's roughly split between operated and non-operated. And obviously, when you look out in the Delaware, Oxy has a large component. But we have a number of other JV partners that are contributing to that as well. But Oxy has a big component.

是的。因此，如果您只看一下 Lower 48 的第二季度高端範圍表現，正如我提到的，我們在加速油井方面表現強勁，而且在油井表現方面也表現出色。大致分為手術和非手術。顯然，當你在特拉華州觀察時，氧氣有一個很大的成分。但我們還有許多其他合資夥伴也為此做出了貢獻。但氧氣的成分很大。

Do you say there's a notable difference between the productivity in the JV and your legacy assets or no?

您是否認為合資企業的生產力與您的遺留資產之間存在顯著差異？

We constantly, Doug, look at all benchmarking. So we receive the ballots from our non-operated positions. We evaluate that to meet our cost framework. I'd say in general, we're fairly aligned. There's always a little bit of difference in spacing and stacking and completion design. But we're roughly in line. And obviously, the positions that we have in the operated position is, really in the core, less than 12 billion barrels of resource, less than [40], averaging [32]. We've got great legacy positions out in the Delaware.

道格，我們不斷地關注所有基準測試。因此，我們從非運營職位收到選票。我們對其進行評估以滿足我們的成本框架。我想說，總的來說，我們是相當一致的。間距、堆疊和完成設計總是存在一點差異。但我們大致都在排隊。顯然，我們在運營位置所擁有的頭寸實際上是在核心，少於 120 億桶資源，少於 [40]，平均為 [32]。我們在特拉華州擁有很好的傳統職位。

Great. And Ryan, my follow-up is probably for you. You're adding $1 billion of cash flow from Surmont. Fantastic deal for you guys. Again, congratulations on that. You've evolved the LNG portfolio even since the Analyst Day. But yet, we still have one of the lowest ordinary dividend yields in the sector that you can clearly cover at very, very low oil prices.

偉大的。 Ryan，我的後續行動可能是為你準備的。您將增加來自 Surmont 的 10 億美元現金流。對你們來說真是太棒了。再次祝賀你。自分析師日以來，您就已經發展了液化天然氣投資組合。但是，我們仍然是該行業中普通股息收益率最低的國家之一，您可以在非常非常低的油價下清楚地支付。

So I'm just wondering if I could ask you again to share your thoughts on whether some of that increase in free cash power of the portfolio translates to a more ratable or a higher ordinary dividend, which frankly we think you get better recognition for.

因此，我想知道是否可以再次請您分享您的想法，即投資組合的自由現金能力的部分增加是否會轉化為更高的可評級或更高的普通股息，坦率地說，我們認為您會得到更好的認可。

Thanks, Doug. You've been a consistent messenger on this particular point. I give you credit for your tenacity, that's for sure. Look, yes, we recognize that we're acquiring some assets to get significant free cash flow potential at $60 to $80, even at our mid-cycle price. I guess, the thing I'd say, first and foremost, Doug, is you shouldn't question ConocoPhillips' commitment to giving a significant amount of our cash flow back to our shareholders.

謝謝，道格。在這一點上，你一直是一個始終如一的使者。我對你的堅韌表示讚賞，這是肯定的。看，是的，我們認識到我們正在收購一些資產，以獲得 60 至 80 美元的巨大自由現金流潛力，即使以我們的中期價格計算也是如此。我想，道格，我首先要說的是，你不應該質疑康菲石油公司將大量現金流返還給股東的承諾。

So the last 6, 7 years, we've averaged 45% this year. Depending on your outlook for prices, we're probably closer to 50%. So first and foremost, we're going to be competitive on giving a significant amount of our cash back to shareholders. And again, that's CFO, not free cash flow.

所以過去 6、7 年，我們今年的平均增長率是 45%。根據您對價格的預期，我們可能接近 50%。因此，首先也是最重要的是，我們將在向股東返還大量現金方面具有競爭力。再說一次，那是首席財務官，而不是自由現金流。

Now to your point, even at a constant price, we're going to be generating more free cash flow as we come out of the APLNG and Surmont activity. Our framework really hasn't changed. Look, what I want -- what we want on the base dividend is something that is -- that we said we see a lot of value being able to grow that at a top quartile rate over time, over the long term. And we intend to go do that.

現在就你的觀點而言，即使價格不變，隨著我們結束 APLNG 和 Surmont 活動，我們也將產生更多的自由現金流。我們的框架確實沒有改變。聽著，我想要的——我們想要的基本股息是——我們說，從長遠來看，我們看到很多價值能夠以最高四分之一的速度增長。我們打算這樣做。

We set our framework around a mid-cycle price. And you may differ or argue with our mid-cycle price, but we try to set a framework around a mid-cycle price. We want to buy some of our shares back through the cycles, so we don't get caught pro-cyclically. And then we introduced that third tier of VROC to address when prices are well above mid-cycle. And you'd argue $80 is well above the mid-cycle. So I think our cash yield is competitive.

我們圍繞中期價格製定框架。您可能對我們的中期價格有不同意見或爭論，但我們嘗試圍繞中期價格製定一個框架。我們希望在整個週期中回購一些股票，這樣我們就不會陷入順週期的困境。然後，我們引入了第三層 VROC，以解決價格遠高於週期中期的問題。你可能會認為 80 美元遠高於週期中期。所以我認為我們的現金收益率具有競爭力。

I think your point is we may get more credit if we put a lot more into the base dividend. We just think that growing the base dividend in a top-tier amount annually gives us a lot of credit as well and doesn't obviously raise the fixed cost for the company. But the improvements are we can afford a bit more, but we're focused on sort of the framework that we outlined and watching pretty volatile commodity prices.

我認為你的觀點是，如果我們在基本股息上投入更多，我們可能會獲得更多信用。我們只是認為，每年大幅增加基本股息也給我們帶來了很多信用，並且不會明顯提高公司的固定成本。但改進之處在於我們可以承擔更多的費用，但我們專注於我們概述的框架，並關注相當波動的商品價格。

So I'd just remind people, just a month ago, WTI was back in the 60s. So we're trying to set a framework that we know works through the mid-cycle. And we set a framework that rewards the shareholders and recognizes the torque that the company has to the upside when prices are much higher. We like the three-tiered framework. We'll look at it again.

所以我想提醒人們，就在一個月前，WTI 又回到了 60 年代。因此，我們正在嘗試建立一個我們知道在周期中期有效的框架。我們制定了一個框架來獎勵股東，並認識到當價格大幅上漲時公司所具有的上行扭矩。我們喜歡三層框架。我們會再看一下。

As we finish this year and go into 2024, we'll look at where our shares are trading. We'll look at where the commodity prices are at. And we'll try to set the channels appropriately. But you can count on us delivering a significant amount of our cash flow back to our shareholders as we've done over the last 6, 7 years.

當今年結束並進入 2024 年時，我們將關注我們的股票交易情況。我們將看看商品價格在哪裡。我們將嘗試適當地設置頻道。但您可以信賴我們將大量現金流返還給股東，就像我們在過去六七年所做的那樣。

Our next question comes from the line of Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的 Sam Margolin。

Apologies if this is a little early, but I want to ask about 2024 capital if I can and maybe focus on Willow. There should be a natural tailwind in capital because the step-up in Willow is less than the Port Arthur payment. But I just wanted to see if there's anything we should know about project lifecycle at Willow that creates a different shape of spend over the development for '24.

抱歉，如果這有點早，但我想詢問 2024 年資本是否可以，也許可以關注 Willow。資本應該會自然順風順水，因為 Willow 的增量小於亞瑟港付款。但我只是想看看 Willow 的項目生命週期是否有任何我們應該了解的信息，這些信息會在 24 年的開發過程中產生不同的支出形式。

Thanks, Sam. It's Dominic here. So it is a bit early for us to be talking about '24. But there hasn't really been any change since -- to the long-term framework we've had and what we talked about at AIM back in April. We showed there an expected capital range depending on how oil prices and inflation was trending. Given that WTI is back to around $80 and the forward curve is about there, as we have been anticipating frankly, we'd expect to be at the higher end of that range that we talked about back in April, so a similar capital level for next year to this year.

謝謝，薩姆。我是多米尼克。所以我們現在談論“24”還為時過早。但自那以後，我們的長期框架以及我們四月份在 AIM 上討論的內容並沒有真正發生任何變化。我們根據油價和通脹趨勢顯示了預期的資本範圍。鑑於 WTI 回到 80 美元左右，並且遠期曲線也在那裡，正如我們一直坦率地預期的那樣，我們預計將處於我們在 4 月份討論過的該範圍的較高端，因此，類似的資本水平明年到今年。

I think one other dimension I'll talk about is how much growth in the Lower 48, what amount of growth do we need as a company, do we want -- well, that's always an outcome of a plan. We're always focused on returns, of course, returns on and of capital. But one of the things we're looking at next year is do we keep Lower 48 relatively flat, it's performing very well this year, or do we add a little bit of activity. That's one of the things we're thinking about.

我想我要討論的另一個方面是 48 州的增長有多少，作為一家公司我們需要多少增長，我們想要什麼——嗯，這始終是計劃的結果。當然，我們始終關注回報，資本回報。但明年我們要考慮的事情之一是，我們是否要保持 Lower 48 相對平穩，今年的表現非常好，或者我們是否要增加一點活動。這是我們正在考慮的事情之一。

In terms of the longer-cycle capital, yes, LNG spend will be rolling off from this year over the next few years just as Willow picks up. We expect our longer-cycle capital to average around $2 billion, pretty flat, for the next few years here. So that would probably give you the pointers in terms of the general direction for next year. Like I said, it's pretty early. But that gives you a good sense of where our heads are at on that, so...

就較長周期資本而言，是的，隨著 Willow 的增加，液化天然氣支出將從今年開始在未來幾年逐漸減少。我們預計未來幾年我們的較長周期資本平均約為 20 億美元，相當平穩。因此，這可能會給您明年的總體方向指明方向。就像我說的，現在還很早。但這可以讓你很好地了解我們在這方面的想法，所以......

Understood. And this is a follow-up on your point on Lower 48 and particularly sort of the phasing of your development. Because now with Mexico Pacific and Port Arthur, you've got quite a bit of evacuation from North America for gas.

明白了。這是您關於 Lower 48 觀點的後續行動，特別是您的發展分階段。因為現在有了墨西哥太平洋航空​​公司和亞瑟港航空公司，您需要從北美疏散大量天然氣。

It integrates with your marketing team and the supply agreement, which you talked about at the AIM. And I wonder if thinking about those projects and their impact on maybe even NPV of your -- of some of your Permian positions with respect to realizations is a factor or if these are evaluated for you totally separately.

它與您在 AIM 上談到的營銷團隊和供應協議相集成。我想知道考慮這些項目及其對您的淨現值（NPV）的影響——您的一些二疊紀職位在實現方面是否是一個因素，或者這些是否是完全單獨為您評估的。

Yes. I mean, we don't really relate those investments specifically and directly. But it's obviously all helpful in terms of demand for North American gas. So that's in our minds certainly as we think about the overall value equation of LNG in North America.

是的。我的意思是，我們並沒有真正具體和直接地將這些投資聯繫起來。但這顯然對北美天然氣的需求都有幫助。因此，當我們思考北美液化天然氣的整體價值方程式時，我們肯定會想到這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的德文·麥克德莫特。

So I wanted to build on what Sam was asking about, some of the comments you made just on inflation or deflation trends. You had some benchmarks baked into the multiyear guidance at the investor meeting earlier this year. We've seen some signs of deflation in U.S. shale and some still rising costs in other pockets internationally.

因此，我想以 Sam 提出的問題為基礎，以及您對通貨膨脹或通貨緊縮趨勢發表的一些評論。在今年早些時候的投資者會議上，你們將一些基準納入了多年指導中。我們已經看到美國頁岩油出現通貨緊縮的跡象，而國際其他地區的成本仍在上升。

On a net basis across your portfolio, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the trends you're seeing here in the back half of '23 and then how that plays into the 2024 outlook to the extent you can comment.

從您的投資組合的淨值來看，我想知道您是否可以談談您在 23 年下半年看到的趨勢，以及在您可以發表評論的範圍內，這種趨勢如何影響 2024 年的前景。

Yes. Thanks, Devin, Dominic again here. So yes, obviously, something we're watching incredibly closely with everybody else in the industry. I think we are seeing some areas of deflation in the Lower 48 going in the second half. I would say, however, we still expect our overall company capital inflation to average out in the mid-single digits this year versus last year on an annual basis.

是的。再次感謝德文、多米尼克。所以，是的，顯然，我們正在與業內其他人密切關注。我認為下半年我們會看到 48 州以下地區的一些地區出現通貨緊縮。不過，我想說，與去年相比，我們仍然預計今年公司整體資本通脹率將平均在個位數中間。

But just to talk a little bit about what we're seeing, I mean, certainly, I think as we've said before, tubulars, we've seen some significant price relief on, any oil price-related commodities, fuel and chemicals and things. We've seen some material reductions in sand and proppant. Rig rates have softened a bit. And that's obviously driven by the gas basin.

但只是簡單談談我們所看到的情況，我的意思是，當然，我認為正如我們之前所說，管材，我們已經看到任何與石油價格相關的商品、燃料和化學品的價格大幅下降和事情。我們已經看到沙子和支撐劑的材料減少了。鑽機價格略有下降。這顯然是由氣盆地驅動的。

So you're starting to see some high-performance rigs come in and compete with the oilier basins. So that is -- we are seeing some day rates come down there. And I would say I think we are beginning to see some examples of frac spread rates coming down in some basins. So that's all looking positive.

因此，您開始看到一些高性能鑽機進入並與含油盆地競爭。也就是說，我們看到一些日費率有所下降。我想說的是，我認為我們開始看到一些盆地的壓裂擴散率下降的例子。所以這一切看起來都是積極的。

Activity internationally and offshore is picking up. It's probably as high as it's been for many years. So we are seeing some pressure on labor rates there. So we're watching that. But overall, certainly seeing some deflation going into the second half.

國際和離岸活動正在增加。它可能是多年來的最高水平。因此，我們看到那裡的勞動力價格面臨一些壓力。所以我們正在關注這一點。但總體而言，下半年肯定會出現一些通貨緊縮。

And that's a big part of the reason we see a lower capital run rate for the second half for the first half. That's an important part of it. And that's all reflected in our annual capital guidance that we have narrowed to $10.8 billion to $11.2 billion, $11 billion is still our midpoint, so -- but certainly, we're seeing turning the corner here with inflation and moving into deflation again.

這是我們看到下半年資本運行率低於上半年的一個重要原因。這是其中重要的一部分。這一切都反映在我們的年度資本指導中，我們已將其縮小至108 億美元至112 億美元，110 億美元仍然是我們的中點，因此，但可以肯定的是，我們看到通脹出現拐點，並再次陷入通貨緊縮。

Great. And then I wanted to separately come back to the LNG strategy. One of the other opportunities that you had talked about at the investor meeting was brownfield expansion at Port Arthur. And we've seen, with some other U.S. Gulf Coast projects, very compelling economics on the additional trains that can get added. Can you just talk a little bit about how you're thinking about the commercialization process there and Conoco's appetite for taking further offtake and further expansion at that facility?

偉大的。然後我想單獨回到液化天然氣戰略。您在投資者會議上談到的其他機會之一是亞瑟港的棕地擴張。我們已經看到，在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的一些其他項目中，可以增加的額外列車具有非常引人注目的經濟效益。您能否簡單談談您對那裡的商業化進程的看法以及康菲石油公司對該工廠進一步承購和進一步擴張的興趣？

Yes, this is Bill. We talked about this a bit at AIM. So as we think about Port Arthur LNG, we're pretty happy with the level of equity that we have right now in the project. When we took equity, that has some pretty unique reasons for taking it for the options that we secured there. And so as we look forward, it would have to make -- there would have to be some pretty unique reasons why we take additional equity.

是的，這是比爾。我們在 AIM 上討論過這個問題。因此，當我們考慮亞瑟港液化天然氣時，我們對該項目目前擁有的股權水平非常滿意。當我們獲得股權時，有一些非常獨特的理由將其作為我們在那裡獲得的期權。因此，當我們展望未來時，我們必須有一些非常獨特的原因來購買額外的股權。

Now as we have mentioned that our agreements are structured for future phases, continue to benefit our investment in the first phase. And so we're pretty positive on that. As you know, we've got some predefined options on that. We're certainly evaluating options. But I think that you should kind of have it in your mind that we're not expecting to spend additional capital there at this point in time.

正如我們所提到的，我們的協議是為未來階段製定的，繼續有利於我們第一階段的投資。所以我們對此非常樂觀。如您所知，我們對此有一些預定義的選項。我們當然正在評估各種選擇。但我認為您應該記住，我們目前不打算在這方面花費額外的資金。

Our next question comes from the line of John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

Okay, sorry. It looks like the tax rate on your corporate segment earnings took a big step up in 2Q. So I was just hoping you could speak to the tax rate on corporate. And then I think it impacted just the overall blended rate, stepped down a bit in 2Q. So just maybe a little bit of color on that as well would be helpful and just what we should expect moving forward with the tax rate.

哦抱歉。看起來你們公司部門收入的稅率在第二季度有了很大的提高。所以我只是希望你能談談公司的稅率。然後我認為它只影響了整體混合利率，在第二季度略有下降。因此，也許對此進行一點說明也會有所幫助，這正是我們對稅率的預期進展。

Yes, this is Bill. This is really just a pretax income mix story. Our estimated annualized effective tax rate has moved down to 35% for the year. That compares to the last time I provided guidance to you all of mid- to upper 30s when we talked sometime last year on our effective tax rates. And this reflects a shift in the mix of our forecast annual pretax income from some higher tax jurisdictions to lower tax jurisdictions.

是的，這是比爾。這實際上只是一個稅前收入混合的故事。我們預計今年的年化有效稅率已降至 35%。與去年某個時候我們談論有效稅率時我上次向所有 30 多歲的中上層人士提供指導相比。這反映了我們預測的年度稅前收入組合從一些高稅收管轄區轉向低稅收管轄區的轉變。

It's really largely driven by Norway, given the reduction that we've seen recently in EU gas prices relative to last year. So obviously, these tax rate changes, they create some quarterly noise as they flow through as a noncash catch-up adjustment when they happen. And so that's why you see our second quarter tax rate was 33.6% versus first quarter of 36%. And that puts our year-to-date right at this 35% level, matching our current expectation of full year.

鑑於我們最近看到歐盟天然氣價格相對於去年有所下降，這實際上主要是由挪威推動的。顯然，這些稅率變化會產生一些季度噪音，因為它們會作為非現金追趕調整髮生。這就是為什麼我們第二季度的稅率為 33.6%，而第一季度為 36%。這使得我們今年迄今為止的增長率正好達到 35% 的水平，符合我們目前對全年的預期。

Now that noncash adjustment, that's going to flow through the corporate and other segment. You can see that on our supplementary disclosures. You can see it's a $200 million positive swing quarter-on-quarter in that corporate segment. Now -- so that's pretty straightforward. It's really just a mix story. Now when you think about deferred tax, the positive tailwind that you saw on the cash flow statements quarter-on-quarter was a bit lower. That was because the income statement adjustment I just talked about.

現在，非現金調整將流經企業和其他部門。您可以在我們的補充披露中看到這一點。您可以看到該企業部門的季度環比正向波動為 2 億美元。現在——這非常簡單。這實際上只是一個混合故事。現在，當您考慮遞延稅時，您在現金流量表上看到的季度環比的積極推動力要低一些。那是因為我剛才講的損益表調整。

But the bottom line is for the second half of the year, 35% annualized effective tax rate is a reasonable run rate for book tax at our current commodity prices. And the deferred tax tailwind of about $200 million for the second quarter, that's also a good run rate for the remainder of the year. Now obviously, that can move around a lot if there's some discrete items that come up. And as you know, they often do. But it's a pretty good run rate at this point in time.

但最重要的是，對於下半年來說，35%的年化有效稅率是按我們目前的商品價格計算的合理的賬面稅稅率。第二季度的遞延稅項約為 2 億美元，這對於今年剩餘時間來說也是一個不錯的運行率。顯然，如果出現一些離散的項目，情況可能會發生很大變化。如您所知，他們經常這樣做。但目前來說，這是一個相當不錯的運行率。

Great. That's really helpful. And then my next question is on Bakken production. You were up well over 100 kb/d in 2Q. What was the driver of the strength there? And should we be thinking about Bakken as plateauing somewhere above that kind of mid- to high 90s that we used to think about? Or is there any stickiness to the strength in 2Q?

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。我的下一個問題是關於巴肯的生產。第二季度的增長速度遠超 100 kb/d。那裡力量的驅動力是什麼？我們是否應該將巴肯視為我們過去認為的 90 年代中高級以上的穩定狀態？或者說2Q的強勢有沒有粘性？

Yes, John, this is Nick. Yes, you look at our operational performance from the rigs and frac crew that we have in Bakken, just performing extremely strong. Like other assets in the portfolio, you're going to see a little bit of lumpiness from quarter-to-quarter. And you can think of Bakken at plateau. So 100,000 barrels a day for several years is a good number.

是的，約翰，這是尼克。是的，你看看我們在巴肯的鑽井平台和壓裂人員的運營表現，表現非常強勁。與投資組合中的其他資產一樣，您會發現季度與季度之間存在一些波動。你可以想到高原上的巴肯。因此，連續幾年每天生產 100,000 桶是一個不錯的數字。

I would refer you to the AIM presentation, where we talked about Eagle Ford and Bakken essentially sustaining production for 330,000 through the decade. That will give you a good long-term view. We like the asset. It's competitive, low cost of supply. And we continue to find opportunities and looking to increase the overall inventory in that asset.

我建議您參閱 AIM 演示，其中我們討論了 Eagle Ford 和 Bakken 在這十年中基本上維持了 330,000 輛的產量。這會給你一個良好的長期視野。我們喜歡這項資產。它具有競爭力，供應成本低。我們繼續尋找機會並尋求增加該資產的總體庫存。

Our next question comes from the line of Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德（Roger Read）。

Anyway, I just wanted to come back around, you've had some opportunities here on the investment in the acquisition front with Surmont and the deal here in Mexico. So I was just sort of curious, as you look at, let's call it, the M&A opportunity versus the organic opportunity, what -- how are you comparing those two? How are the opportunities looking on those, thinking returns, right, where to put your incremental dollar?

不管怎樣，我只是想回來，你在 Surmont 收購方面的投資以及墨西哥的交易方面有一些機會。所以我只是有點好奇，正如你所看到的，我們稱之為併購機會與有機機會，你如何比較這兩者？機會如何看待這些，思考回報，對吧，把你的增量資金放在哪裡？

Yes. Right now, I think we're pretty focused on the organic side, Roger, but just because of the resource base right now and the stuff that we're executing has got pretty compelling opportunity for the company to focus most of our capital and our allocation towards our organic side of the business. But it's performing as well as it is. We're delivering the efficiencies that Nick talked about in the Lower 48 and what Andy is delivering around the rest of the world. That just looks to be compelling opportunities for the company.

是的。現在，我認為我們非常關注有機方面，羅傑，但僅僅因為現在的資源基礎和我們正在執行的東西，就為公司提供了相當有吸引力的機會來集中我們的大部分資本和我們的資源。分配給我們業務的有機部分。但它的表現還是不錯的。我們正在實現 Nick 在 Lower 48 地區所談到的效率，以及 Andy 在世界其他地區所實現的效率。這對公司來說似乎是一個極具吸引力的機會。

But with that said, you kind of -- you hang around the hoop and you catch these rebounds a little bit. Because we never know when our partners in some of these assets make different strategic decisions, which is clearly what our partner, APLNG, has done or is doing and what's clearly what our partner, Surmont, has done and is doing. So we know these assets really well. And we've tried to -- we're consistent in the framework around cost of supply that we described to you a number of years ago of how we kind of match up inorganic opportunities with organic opportunities.

但話雖如此，你會在籃筐周圍徘徊並抓住一些籃板。因為我們永遠不知道我們的某些資產的合作夥伴何時會做出不同的戰略決策，而這顯然是我們的合作夥伴APLNG 已經做過或正在做的事情，以及我們的合作夥伴Surmont 已經做過和正在做的事情。所以我們非常了解這些資產。我們一直在努力——我們在供應成本框架上保持一致，我們幾年前向你們描述了我們如何將無機機會與有機機會相匹配。

And that's why we want to have the financial strength that we do with cash on the balance sheet and the ability to fund these projects when they come available. You just never know when your partner makes the kind of decisions that they have made. And we want -- when we know the assets well and we can get it for a deal that's very competitive, as you talked about vis-a-vis Surmont and APLNG for that matter, we're going to be all over those when those opportunities present themselves. We never quite know when they do. So we're mostly focused on the organic side of the portfolio, but we want to have the firepower and be there.

這就是為什麼我們希望擁有資產負債表上的現金那樣的財務實力，以及在這些項目可用時為這些項目提供資金的能力。你永遠不知道你的伴侶何時做出他們所做的決定。我們希望——當我們充分了解這些資產，並且我們可以通過一項非常有競爭力的交易獲得它時，正如您談到的 Surmont 和 APLNG 的問題一樣，我們將全力以赴，當那些機會自然而然出現。我們永遠不知道他們什麼時候會這樣做。因此，我們主要關注投資組合的有機方面，但我們希望擁有火力並在那裡。

And we watch everything. We pay attention to everything that's going on in the market. We know what we like. And we know what we can afford to pay more importantly. And when we can bring those two together, we want to be able to execute those when those opportunities present themselves. And that -- and it was really opportunistic with both APLNG and Surmont. We had partners who made strategic decisions to go in a different direction. And that was to our advantage. So we want to take advantage of that.

我們觀察一切。我們關注市場上發生的一切。我們知道自己喜歡什麼。更重要的是，我們知道我們能負擔得起什麼。當我們能夠將這兩者結合在一起時，我們希望能夠在機會出現時執行這些計劃。 APLNG 和 Surmont 確實是機會主義的。我們的合作夥伴做出了走向不同方向的戰略決策。這對我們有利。所以我們想利用這一點。

Absolutely. And then just as a follow-up question on the agreement to go the LNG route on the West Coast of Mexico, what is the situation with takeaway capacity to get there presumably from the Permian? Just what pipelines might need to be constructed in order to make this project to bring it to fruition?

絕對地。然後，正如關於墨西哥西海岸液化天然氣路線協議的後續問題，從二疊紀盆地到達那裡的外運能力情況如何？為了使這個項目取得成果，可能需要建造哪些管道？

Yes, Roger, this is Bill. So two points. First up, the 2.2 million tonnes from Saguaro, that is an offtake agreement, it's not an equity investment. So I just think it's important to make sure that, that's clear. And then for the specific question about the pipelines, I'd really direct you to the operator, Mexico Pacific, for a detailed answer.

是的，羅傑，這是比爾。所以有兩點。首先，來自Saguaro的220萬噸，這是一份承購協議，不是股權投資。所以我認為確保這一點很重要。然後，對於有關管道的具體問題，我真的會引導您聯繫運營商墨西哥太平洋公司，以獲得詳細的答案。

But they've had several press releases out, including one in July that announced a 20-year agreement with CFE, that's the Federal Electric Commission in Mexico, to supply Mexico Pacific with natural gas delivered from the Permian Basin via CFE's pipelines in Mexico. And so that's the best source of information for you on that. And of course, that takeaway from the Permian is helpful for Waha differentials and pricing overall.

但他們已經發布了幾份新聞稿，其中包括7 月份的一份新聞稿，宣布與CFE（墨西哥聯邦電力委員會）達成一項為期20 年的協議，通過CFE 在墨西哥的管道向墨西哥太平洋公司供應從二疊紀盆地輸送的天然氣。所以這是您最好的信息來源。當然，二疊紀盆地的收穫對瓦哈的差異化和整體定價很有幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ryan Todd 和 Piper Sandler。

Maybe one follow-up question on the Saguaro LNG offtake or at least a broader question on offtake agreements. Is there -- you've got that offtake agreement now. You've got the 5 million tonnes from Port Arthur.

也許是關於仙人掌液化天然​​氣承購的一個後續問題，或者至少是關於承購協議的更廣泛的問題。是嗎——你們現在已經拿到了承購協議嗎？你已經從亞瑟港獲得了 500 萬噸。

Is there -- when you look at your interest in offtake agreements in LNG, is there a relative size in terms of how much feels appropriate in the portfolio relative to equity gas production either on a global basis or in the U.S. relative to kind of U.S. gas versus offtake agreements? How are you thinking about -- should we expect to see you look at additional offtake agreements? Or do you feel like you've got a pretty good balance at this point in the portfolio?

當你審視你對液化天然氣承購協議的興趣時，你會發現，無論是在全球範圍內，還是在美國，相對於股權天然氣生產，投資組合中感覺合適的程度是否存在相對規模？天然氣與承購協議？您如何看待——我們是否應該看到您考慮額外的承購協議？或者您覺得您目前的投資組合已經達到了相當好的平衡？

Yes, that's a really interesting question. So as we've laid out, we think about this as building up in kind of a ladder fashion. You have to have good market placement with the LNG offtake that you secure. We feel very comfortable with where we're at in that progress, even just since AIM in April. So that's why you're seeing us being pretty confident with our West Coast volumes here.

是的，這是一個非常有趣的問題。正如我們所闡述的，我們認為這是以某種階梯方式構建的。您必須在獲得的液化天然氣採購方面擁有良好的市場定位。即使自 4 月份的 AIM 以來，我們對目前的進展感到非常滿意。這就是為什麼我們對西海岸的銷量非常有信心。

But you should expect that to kind of develop as a ladder, so you don't get out ahead of your skis. We do see pretty strong demand on that. But I think we're getting pretty close to critical mass here over time. So I think we're pretty comfortable with where we're at right now. We continue to look for capacity on the West Coast. But a lot of those things are more longer-dated out in time right now.

但你應該預料到它會像梯子一樣發展，這樣你就不會在滑雪板之前脫身。我們確實看到了對此的強烈需求。但我認為隨著時間的推移，我們已經非常接近臨界質量了。所以我認為我們對現在的處境感到非常滿意。我們繼續在西海岸尋找產能。但其中很多事情現在已經過時了。

Great. And then maybe -- and I apologize, I'm not sure if you said something on this, I missed the first minute of the prepared comments. But any comments on what -- like the latest update on Alaska, particularly regarding the outstanding legal or permitting issues that would dictate timing there at Willow?

偉大的。然後也許——我很抱歉，我不確定你是否對此說了些什麼，我錯過了準備好的評論的第一分鐘。但是，您對阿拉斯加的最新情況有何評論，特別是關於決定 Willow 的時間安排的未決法律或許可問題？

This is Andy. So for Alaska, on the legal front, as you recall, we had the two lawsuits that were challenging the federal government's approval for the project. So probably the main update since we last spoke is we're pleased that a schedule has been agreed now. And we expect to see a ruling on that in November.

這是安迪。因此，對於阿拉斯加來說，在法律方面，正如您所記得的，我們有兩起訴訟質疑聯邦政府對該項目的批准。因此，自我們上次談話以來的主要更新可能是我們很高興現在已經商定了時間表。我們預計將在 11 月份看到對此的裁決。

As we previously communicated that given the prior rulings on this, the scope of what's being challenged is narrow. And we believe that the BLM, the cooperating agency, has conducted a thorough process and satisfied all the legal requirements. So we're kind of very much now looking forward for the court ruling in November as we start to plan for our 2024 winter season.

正如我們之前所傳達的，鑑於之前對此的裁決，受到質疑的範圍很窄。我們相信，合作機構國土資源管理局已經進行了徹底的流程並滿足了所有法律要求。因此，當我們開始計劃 2024 年冬季時，我們現在非常期待 11 月的法院裁決。

Our next question comes from the line of Lloyd Byrne with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自勞埃德·伯恩和杰弗里斯的對話。

I just have a couple of quick questions on long-cycle -- you talked about long-cycle development and then deflation comments and whether -- maybe you could take that to Willow. You FID-ed that would seem like peak inflation and then some important costs have come down. So wondering whether you have a cost update there. Or I guess, when do you expect costs to come down? And I understand it's a 6-year project, but...

我只是有幾個關於長周期的簡單問題——你談到了長周期發展，然後是通貨緊縮評論，以及是否——也許你可以把這個問題帶到 Willow 那裡。你最終決定這看起來像是通貨膨脹達到頂峰，然後一些重要的成本已經下降。所以想知道你們那裡是否有成本更新。或者我猜，您預計成本什麼時候會下降？我知道這是一個為期 6 年的項目，但是......

Lloyd, this is Andy again. So Willow was a longer-term project. So it is a little hard to comment on sort of deflation and inflation through 2029. But I guess, it is important to frame it. Willow is not a turnkey contract. And as we are entering into individual contracts, those contracts do have terms linked to agreed indices. That can move up and down with inflation.

勞埃德，這又是安迪。所以 Willow 是一個長期項目。因此，對 2029 年之前的通貨緊縮和通貨膨脹進行評論有點困難。但我認為，制定框架很重要。 Willow 不是交鑰匙合同。當我們簽訂個人合同時，這些合同確實有與商定指數相關的條款。這可能會隨著通貨膨脹而上下波動。

So probably, a couple of other things I'd mention is that we haven't seen the same kind of inflation in Alaska as we've seen in the Lower 48 over the last couple of years. So as we said in AIM, I think in terms of the capital range, that still holds. We expect the capital range to be in the $7 billion to $7.5 billion. That really hasn't changed from the CapEx to first production.

因此，我可能要提到的其他幾件事是，我們在阿拉斯加沒有看到過去幾年在下 48 個州看到的那種通貨膨脹。正如我們在 AIM 中所說，我認為就資本範圍而言，這一點仍然成立。我們預計資本範圍在 70 億至 75 億美元之間。從資本支出到首次生產，這一點確實沒有改變。

And it's also worth emphasizing, like all of our projects, Willow has got some inflation factored into those estimates. So we understand the project really well. This kind of activity is sort of -- a lot of this is sort of typical activity we do in Alaska. And we haven't seen the same kind of inflation that we have, have in the Lower 48. So I think the $7 billion to $7.5 billion that we provided at AIM is still a good estimate of what our thinking is in terms of the CapEx to first production.

還值得強調的是，像我們所有的項目一樣，Willow 在這些估計中考慮了一些通貨膨脹因素。所以我們非常了解這個項目。這種活動是——其中很多是我們在阿拉斯加進行的典型活動。我們還沒有看到像下 48 個國家那樣的通貨膨脹。因此，我認為我們在 AIM 提供的 70 億至 75 億美元仍然是對我們在資本支出方面的想法的一個很好的估計。到第一次生產。

Okay, great. And then let me just go back to Surmont. I know you answered a few questions on it. But it kind of fell into your laps. And whether the exercise of offer changes any strategic capital decisions elsewhere in the portfolio, it feels like it gives you a lot of flexibility going forward. But I was just wondering if it changes the timing on any other project. And I'm thinking Montney or anything like that.

好的，太好了。然後讓我回到蘇爾蒙特。我知道你回答了一些關於它的問題。但它卻落入了你的懷抱。無論要約的行使是否會改變投資組合中其他地方的任何戰略資本決策，感覺它都會給你帶來很大的靈活性。但我只是想知道它是否會改變其他項目的時間安排。我在想蒙特尼或者類似的人。

As you said, Surmont, one of the things that we really like about Surmont is it's a low capital intensity asset. So it really doesn't change that much in terms of allocating capital to other projects. It's just providing us a lot more cash flow. So I think the plan we outlined at AIM, it doesn't really change how we consider the other projects. And we have the benefit of another long-cycle asset with low capital intensity.

正如您所說，Surmont，我們真正喜歡 Surmont 的原因之一是它是一種低資本密集度的資產。因此，在向其他項目分配資金方面，它確實沒有太大變化。它只是為我們提供了更多的現金流。所以我認為我們在 AIM 上概述的計劃並沒有真正改變我們對其他項目的看法。我們還受益於另一種低資本密集度的長周期資產。

Our next question comes from the line of Alastair Syme with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆 (Alastair Syme)。

I wonder -- sorry, back on LNG again. I just wonder if you could talk about the three opportunities you have taken on over the last 12, 18 months about how they compare on a cost of supply basis once you put together costs in fiscal, how it all comes together.

我想知道——抱歉，再次回到液化天然氣上。我只是想知道您是否可以談談您在過去12、18 個月中所採取的三個機會，一旦您將財政成本放在一起，它們如何在供應成本的基礎上進行比較，以及它們是如何組合在一起的。

So if you look...

所以如果你看...

Go ahead, Bill.

繼續吧，比爾。

Yes, sure. So if you look at the projects that we picked up, so in Qatar, those are really nice projects that we've pursued for a long period of time. Those compete very well on our cost of supply. We're quite happy with those. Port Arthur, we've talked about it pretty extensively. We've talked about how Port Arthur on an integrated basis that we'd expect low- to mid-teens returns overall but with really steady cash flow and low-risk returns on that equity component. And then Saguaro is not an equity investment.

是的，當然。因此，如果你看看我們在卡塔爾接手的項目，這些都是我們長期以來一直追求的非常好的項目。這些產品在我們的供應成本方面具有很強的競爭力。我們對這些感到非常滿意。亞瑟港，我們已經廣泛討論過它。我們已經討論過亞瑟港如何在綜合的基礎上，我們預計整體回報率將在十幾歲左右，但現金流量非常穩定，並且該股本部分的回報率低風險。然後仙人掌並不是股權投資。

Although there's still an inherent cost of supply associated with it in terms of how you're thinking about the market position?

儘管就您如何看待市場地位而言，仍然存在與之相關的固有供應成本？

Yes, sure. So that comes down to what cost of supply is in your portfolio. We think that Saguaro is quite competitive because it's on the West Coast, particularly when you compare that to Gulf Coast LNG because you're on the other side of the Panama Canal. And so it's a quite competitive supply location for deliveries, particularly into Asia, and fits very nice in terms of if you think of an acquisition cost for LNG. It's very competitive.

是的，當然。因此，這取決於您的投資組合中的供應成本。我們認為 Saguaro 非常有競爭力，因為它位於西海岸，特別是當你將其與墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣進行比較時，因為你位於巴拿馬運河的另一邊。因此，它是一個頗具競爭力的供應地點，特別是在亞洲，如果您考慮液化天然氣的採購成本，那麼它非常適合。競爭非常激烈。

And I would add, Alastair, that, yes, if we look at the liquefaction fee and our reason for choosing Port Arthur and obviously MPL is what we believe is a very, very competitive liquefaction fee. And avoiding some of the costs through the Panama Canal then places it at a premium to Asian buyers.

我想補充一點，阿拉斯泰爾，是的，如果我們看看液化費以及我們選擇亞瑟港的原因，顯然 MPL 是我們認為非常非常有競爭力的液化費。並且避免了通過巴拿馬運河的一些成本，這對亞洲買家來說是一個溢價。

Okay. And my follow-up, probably to Dominic, I think you hinted to the question on 2024 CapEx that you're sort of evaluating Lower 48 activity levels. And I was just sort of wondering what is sitting behind that. Is it something about taking advantage of the deflation you're seeing? Or is it related to what you're seeing on well productivity?

好的。我的後續行動，可能是對多米尼克來說，我認為您暗示了有關 2024 年資本支出的問題，即您正在評估 48 個國家的活動水平。我只是想知道這背後是什麼。是為了利用你所看到的通貨緊縮嗎？或者它與您所看到的油井生產率有關嗎？

Yes, Alastair. I mean, it's really -- looking at the performance of Lower 48 this year, I mean, it's doing very well. We've got a very efficient machine running as we think about returns and we think about the growth that we are likely to see from the Lower 48, even at relatively flat levels. We will see growth, we anticipate, even at maintaining flat activity levels.

是的，阿拉斯泰爾。我的意思是，看看 Lower 48 今年的表現，我的意思是，它做得非常好。當我們考慮回報時，我們有一台非常高效的機器在運行，我們考慮我們可能從 48 個州以下地區看到的增長，即使是在相對平坦的水平上。我們預計，即使活動水平保持平穩，我們也會看到增長。

So we're just looking overall and saying -- looking at the macro and so on and just saying how much growth do we think is appropriate. So that's just something that we're considering. We haven't made any decisions on that yet. But yes, it's just a case of fine-tuning that as we think about 2024.

因此，我們只是從整體上看，並從宏觀等方面考慮，然後說我們認為增長多少是合適的。所以這只是我們正在考慮的事情。我們還沒有就此做出任何決定。但是，是的，這只是我們對 2024 年的展望進行微調的情況。

This question comes from the line of Josh Silverstein with UBS.

這個問題來自瑞銀集團的喬什·西爾弗斯坦 (Josh Silverstein)。

So in Mexico as well, you guys have the option and offtake in, I think, potential equity agreement at Costa Azul as well. What are the key differences between the two projects and why the first one with Mexico Pacific versus the Costa Azul project?

因此，在墨西哥，我認為你們也可以選擇並承購 Costa Azul 的潛在股權協議。這兩個項目之間的主要區別是什麼？為什麼第一個項目是墨西哥太平洋項目而不是 Costa Azul 項目？

Yes. I think the key difference is the timing issue right now. Mexico Pacific is available right now. It's getting ready to take FID. It's in a good location with a very competitive tariff. And as we're marketing today, that would be accretive and in the money based on the tariff rates that we're looking at.

是的。我認為現在關鍵的區別是時機問題。墨西哥太平洋航線現已上線。正在準備接受 FID。它地理位置優越，資費極具競爭力。正如我們今天所營銷的那樣，根據我們正在考慮的關稅率，這將是增值的並且是賺錢的。

So we do have options for ECA, Energia Costa Azul, on the West Coast through our interest in Port Arthur Phase 1. But that's more longer-dated. That project is not yet ready to consider taking FID. And there's a bit of time to go on it. It's a timing issue of when they start up. But we can think of it as an option for West Coast.

因此，通過我們對亞瑟港一期工程的興趣，我們確實可以選擇西海岸的 ECA、Energia Costa Azul。但那是更長期的。該項目尚未準備好考慮進行最終投資決定。還有一些時間可以繼續。這是他們啟動的時間問題。但我們可以將其視為西海岸的一個選擇。

Got it. And then as you guys are putting together your portfolio, are you trying to optimize the exposure you have to both the Atlantic and Pacific Basins and maybe discuss some of like the key differences you see or risks you see between both sides?

知道了。然後，當你們整理您的投資組合時，您是否正在嘗試優化您在大西洋和太平洋盆地的風險敞口，並可能討論一些您看到的關鍵差異或雙方之間的風險？

Yes. So certainly, as we put the portfolio together, we're looking at a diversified portfolio of offtake. We are actively developing placement into Europe. We're developing long-term deliberate opportunities into Asia. And we're considering some sales FOB at the facilities that are in the money right now.

是的。因此，當然，當我們將投資組合放在一起時，我們正在考慮多元化的承購組合。我們正在積極發展歐洲的佈局。我們正在深思熟慮地在亞洲開髮長期機會。我們正在考慮在目前有資金的工廠進行一些離岸價銷售。

We also are thinking about these in a time horizon basis with a mix of shorter- and longer-term dates as a portfolio. And we'll be using our commercial organization to optimize across that value chain. So yes, we are looking at actively building out both European and Asian market and doing that through a variety of formats and time horizons.

我們還以時間跨度為基礎來考慮這些問題，並將短期和長期日期作為一個投資組合。我們將利用我們的商業組織來優化整個價值鏈。所以，是的，我們正在考慮積極開拓歐洲和亞洲市場，並通過各種形式和時間範圍來實現這一目標。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。