康菲 (COP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2023 ConocoPhillips Earnings Conference Call. My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions).

歡迎參加康菲石油公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫莉茲，我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。 （操作員說明）。

I will now turn the call over to Phil Gresh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Phil Gresh。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Liz, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call.

謝謝 Liz，歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Tim Leach, Adviser to the CEO; Bill Bullock, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Dominic Macklon, Executive Vice President of Strategy, Sustainability and Technology; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48; Andy O'Brien, Senior Vice President of Global Operations; Kirk Johnson, Senior Vice President, Lower 48, Assets and Operations; and Will Giraud, Senior Vice President, Corporate Planning and Development. Ryan and Bill will kick it off with opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions.

今天參加電話會議的有康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾位成員，包括董事長兼執行長 Ryan Lance；提姆·利奇（Tim Leach），執行長顧問；比爾‧布洛克，執行副總裁兼財務長；麥克倫 (Dominic Macklon)，策略、永續發展與技術執行副總裁； Nick Olds，Lower 48 執行副總裁；安迪‧奧布萊恩 (Andy O'Brien)，全球營運資深副總裁； Kirk Johnson，Lower 48 資產與營運資深副總裁；以及企業規劃與發展資深副總裁 Will Giraud。瑞安和比爾將以開場白開始，之後團隊將回答您的問題。

A few quick reminders. First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation, which you can find on the Investor Relations website. Second, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. We will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website. And third, when we move to Q&A after the prepared remarks, (Operator Instructions).

一些快速提醒。首先，除了今天的發布之外，我們還發布了補充財務資料和幻燈片演示文稿，您可以在投資者關係網站上找到這些資料。其次，在這次電話會議中，我們將根據目前預期做出前瞻性陳述。由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期向 SEC 提交的文件中提到的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。我們將參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的調整表。第三，當我們在準備好的評論之後進入問答環節時（操作員說明）。

With that, I will turn it over to Ryan.

這樣，我就把它交給瑞安。

Thanks, Phil, and thank you to everyone for joining our fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. It was another strong quarter for ConocoPhillips as the team continued to execute on its commitment to deliver returns to our shareholders.

謝謝 Phil，也謝謝大家參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。對於康菲石油公司來說，這是另一個強勁的季度，因為團隊繼續履行為股東帶來回報的承諾。

Now stepping back and looking at 2023, ConocoPhillips demonstrated solid execution across all aspects of our triple mandate. We reported record production and achieved several milestones across our asset base. And we delivered a preliminary reserve replacement ratio of 123%, highlighting our ability to continue to replace reserves across our deep, durable and diversified portfolio.

現在回過頭來展望 2023 年，康菲石油公司在我們三重使命的各個方面都展現了紮實的執行力。我們報告了創紀錄的產量，並在我們的資產基礎上實現了多個里程碑。我們的初步儲備替代率為 123%，突顯了我們在深度、持久和多元化投資組合中繼續替代儲備的能力。

We're also progressing several key strategic initiatives. We advanced our global LNG strategy through expansion in Qatar, FID at Port Arthur and several offtake and regasification agreements. We FID-ed the Willow project in Alaska have been ramping up construction this winter season. And we opportunistically acquired the remaining 50% of Surmont at an attractive price that fit our financial framework. We were able to accomplish all of this while delivering our returns-focused value proposition to our shareholders.

我們也正在推動幾項關鍵策略措施。我們透過在卡達的擴張、亞瑟港的最終投資決定以及多項承購和再氣化協議推進了我們的全球液化天然氣戰略。我們對阿拉斯加的 Willow 計畫進行了最終投資決策，今年冬季一直在加緊建設。我們趁機以符合我們財務框架的有吸引力的價格收購了 Surmont 剩餘 50% 的股份。我們能夠實現這一切，同時向股東提供以回報為中心的價值主張。

We generated a trailing 12-month return on capital employed of 17% and or 19% on a cash adjusted basis. We also delivered on our plan to return $11 billion of capital to our shareholders, which was well in excess of greater than 30% annual through-the-cycle commitment. Last spring, we further strengthened our GHG emissions intensity targets to a 50% to 60% reduction from a 2016 baseline and were recently awarded the Gold Standard Pathway designation by the Oil And Gas Initiative Methane Partnership 2.0.

以現金調整後計算，我們過去 12 個月的已動用資本報酬率為 17% 或 19%。我們還實現了向股東返還 110 億美元資本的計劃，這遠遠超過了年度整個週期承諾的 30% 以上。去年春天，我們進一步強化了溫室氣體排放強度目標，較 2016 年基準減少 50% 至 60%，並於最近獲得了石油和天然氣倡議甲烷夥伴關係 2.0 授予的黃金標準路徑稱號。

Now looking ahead to 2024. This morning, we announced a plan to distribute $9 billion to shareholders this year. We also announced a VROC of $0.20 per share for the first quarter. The remainder of our cash flow will be reinvested into the business as we continue to execute on our plan to grow earnings and cash flows as we outlined at our Analyst and Investor Meeting last year.

現在展望 2024 年。今天早上，我們宣布了今年向股東分配 90 億美元的計劃。我們也宣布第一季的 VROC 為每股 0.20 美元。正如我們在去年的分析師和投資者會議上所概述的那樣，隨著我們繼續執行增加收益和現金流的計劃，我們剩餘的現金流將重新投資到業務中。

In conclusion, once again, I'm proud of the accomplishments of the entire organization. Our portfolio is well positioned to generate competitive returns and cash flow for decades to come.

總之，我再次為整個組織所取得的成就感到自豪。我們的投資組合處於有利地位，可以在未來幾十年內產生有競爭力的回報和現金流。

Now let me turn the call over to Bill to cover our fourth quarter performance and our 2024 guidance in more detail.

現在讓我將電話轉給 Bill，更詳細地介紹我們第四季的業績和 2024 年的指導。

Thanks, Ryan. In the fourth quarter, we generated $2.40 per share in adjusted earnings. We produced 1,902,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day representing 4% underlying growth year-over-year. This was consistent with our full year 2023 underlying growth rate of 4% also. Fourth quarter Lower 48 production averaged 1,086,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which represent a 9% underlying growth year-over-year. We produced 750,000 from the Permian and 211,000 from the Eagle Ford and 110,000 from the Bakken. Full year 2023 underlying growth for the Lower 48 was roughly 8%.

謝謝，瑞安。第四季度，我們調整後每股收益為 2.40 美元。我們每天生產 1,902,000 桶石油當量，年增 4%。這也與我們 2023 年全年 4% 的基本成長率一致。第四季度，Lower 48 州的日均產量為 1,086,000 桶油當量，年增 9%。我們從二疊紀生產了 75 萬件，從 Eagle Ford 生產了 211,000 件，從巴肯生產了 11 萬件。 2023 年全年，美國 48 個州的基本成長率約為 8%。

Moving to cash flows. Fourth quarter CFO was $5.5 billion, and this included APLNG distributions of $281 million. Fourth quarter capital expenditures were $2.9 billion, which included $573 million for longer-cycle projects. Full year capital expenditures were $11.2 billion, which included $2 billion for longer-cycle projects.

轉向現金流。第四季 CFO 為 55 億美元，其中包括 2.81 億美元的 APLNG 分配。第四季資本支出為 29 億美元，其中包括用於較長週期項目的 5.73 億美元。全年資本支出為 112 億美元，其中包括 20 億美元用於較長週期的項目。

Now regarding returns of capital, we delivered $11 billion to shareholders in 2023. For the fourth quarter, we returned $2.5 billion. This was via $1.1 billion in share buybacks and $1.4 billion in ordinary dividends and VROC payments. We ended the year with cash and short-term investments of $6.9 billion as well as $1 billion in long-term investments.

現在就資本回報而言，我們在 2023 年向股東交付了 110 億美元。第四季度，我們回報了 25 億美元。這是透過 11 億美元的股票回購以及 14 億美元的普通股息和 VROC 支付實現的。截至年底，我們的現金和短期投資為 69 億美元，長期投資為 10 億美元。

Turning to guidance. We forecast 2024 production to be in the range of 1.91 to 1.95 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This translates to 2% to 4% underlying growth pro forma for acquisitions and dispositions. We expect this growth to be well balanced between both Lower 48 and international. Our full-year forecast includes turnaround impacts of 25,000 to 30,000 barrels per day, which is about 10,000 higher than in 2023. Now turnarounds are expected to be concentrated in the third quarter when Surmont completes a 1-month turnaround, and that turnaround occurs once every 5 years.

轉向指導。我們預測 2024 年產量將在每天 191 至 195 萬桶油當量之間。這意味著收購和處置的預期潛在成長率為 2% 至 4%。我們預計 48 個州和國際地區的成長將保持良好平衡。我們的全年預測包括每天 25,000 至 30,000 桶的周轉影響，比 2023 年高出約 10,000 桶。現在，週轉預計將集中在第三季度，屆時 Surmont 完成 1 個月的周轉，並且該週轉發生一次每5 年一次。

For the first quarter, production guidance is in a range of 1.88 to 1.92 million barrels of oil equivalent per day or roughly 1% to 3% underlying growth. While the first quarter will have minimal turnarounds, similar to the fourth quarter, it does include a 20,000 barrel per day headwind from January weather impacts. For APLNG, we expect distributions of $400 million in the first quarter and $1.3 billion for the full year.

第一季的產量指引範圍為每天 1.88 至 192 萬桶石油當量，即基本成長率約為 1% 至 3%。雖然與第四季類似，第一季的轉變幅度很小，但由於 1 月的天氣影響，確實會帶來每天 20,000 桶的逆風。對於 APLNG，我們預計第一季分配額為 4 億美元，全年分配額為 13 億美元。

Now shifting to cost guidance. We see full year adjusted operating costs in a range of $8.9 billion to $9.1 billion, representing essentially flat unit costs on a year-over-year basis. Full year cash exploration expenses are expected to be $300 million to $400 million, and DD&A expense is expected to be in the range of $9.4 billion to $9.6 billion. Full year adjusted corporate segment net loss guidance is $1 billion to $1.1 billion. And for taxes, we expect our effective corporate tax rate to be in the 36% to 37% range of strip prices, and that's excluding any onetime items. And that's with an effective cash tax rate in the 33% to 34% range. For capital spending, our full year guidance range is between $11 billion to $11.5 billion, which includes $200 million to $300 million of capitalized interest.

現在轉向成本指引。我們預計全年調整後營運成本在 89 億美元至 91 億美元之間，單位成本將比去年同期基本持平。全年現金勘探費用預計為 3 億至 4 億美元，DD&A 費用預計在 94 億至 96 億美元之間。全年調整後企業部門淨虧損指引為 10 億至 11 億美元。至於稅收，我們預計我們的有效企業稅率將在帶鋼價格的 36% 至 37% 範圍內，這不包括任何一次性項目。有效現金稅率為 33% 至 34%。對於資本支出，我們的全年指引範圍為 110 億至 115 億美元，其中包括 2 億至 3 億美元的資本化利息。

Now on Slide 8 of the presentation, we provided a bridge from 2023 to 2024 with some of the key year-over-year variables, most of which we've discussed on prior earnings calls. These include our expectation of $200 million to $300 million in deflation benefits, primarily in the Lower 48. $200 million to $300 million of lower spending in Norway following the startup of our 4 subsea tieback projects, and $500 million to $600 million in lower LNG spending, mostly at Port Arthur. These decreases are offset by $900 million to $1 billion increase at Willow and a $100 million to $200 million increase in Canada to account for the acquisition of the remaining 50% of Surmont and the addition of a second rig in the Montney.

現在，在簡報的幻燈片 8 中，我們提供了從 2023 年到 2024 年的橋樑，其中包括一些關鍵的同比變量，其中大部分變量我們已在之前的財報電話會議上討論過。其中包括我們預計將獲得2 億至3 億美元的通貨緊縮效益，主要是在48 個州。在我們的4 個海底回接計畫啟動後，挪威的支出將減少2 億至3 億美元，液化天然氣支出將減少5 億至6 億美元。 ，主要在亞瑟港。這些減少被Willow增加9億至10億美元以及加拿大增加1億至2億美元所抵消，這些增加是為了收購Surmont剩餘50%的股份以及在Montney增加第二個鑽井平台。

For Willow, we expect spending to be more heavily weighted to the first quarter, and this is consistent with the normal timing of winter construction season. And for Port Arthur, we expect that our $400 million of equity contributions in 2024 will also be weighted towards the first half of the year. Now as a result, first quarter CapEx could be a bit above $3 billion.

對於 Willow 來說，我們預計第一季的支出比重會更大，這與冬季施工季節的正常時間一致。對於亞瑟港，我們預計 2024 年將 4 億美元的股權出資也將計入上半年。因此，第一季資本支出可能略高於 30 億美元。

So to wrap up, we ended the year with another solid operational quarter. We continue to deliver on our strategic initiatives across our deep, durable and diverse portfolio. And we remain highly competitive on our shareholder distributions.

總而言之，我們以另一個穩健的營運季度結束了這一年。我們繼續在我們深入、持久和多樣化的投資組合中實施我們的策略性舉措。我們在股東分配方面仍保持高度競爭力。

Now that concludes our prepared remarks. I'll turn it back over to the operator to start the Q&A.

現在我們準備好的發言結束了。我會將其轉回給接線員以開始問答。

(Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題來自高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Ryan, I want to ask you about the Lower 48, last year correctly predicted that many of us had thought production was going to be 400,000 to 500,000 barrels a day. We were wrong, and the number is up being closer to your number of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels a day. So as you think about exit to exit this year, how are you thinking about U.S. oil production and tie that into your own Lower 48 development plans, how are you thinking about prosecuting that acreage over the course of the year?

Ryan，我想問你關於 Lower 48 的情況，去年我們中的許多人都正確預測了產量將達到每天 400,000 至 500,000 桶。我們錯了，這個數字正在接近你們每天80萬到90萬桶的數字。因此，當您考慮今年的退出時，您如何考慮美國的石油產量並將其與您自己的 Lower 48 州開發計劃聯繫起來，您如何考慮在一年內控制該地區的面積？

Yes. Thanks, Neil. No, we see a bit of de-acceleration in the growth rate coming from the U.S. driven by a number of factors around efficiency and the rig rates. So we would peg the growth -- but we're still growing in the Lower 48. We peg that growth at -- between 300,000 to 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent. That's total liquids.

是的。謝謝，尼爾。不，我們看到美國的成長率有所放緩，這是由效率和鑽機率等一系列因素推動的。因此，我們將成長固定在 30 萬至 50 萬桶石油當量之間，但我們在 48 個州以下地區仍在成長。那是全部液體。

So yes, we still see some growth coming from the U.S. shale, the Lower 48, primarily driven in the -- out of the Permian but more modest relative to last year's growth. Relative to our expected Lower 48, we're in that kind of same range, low to -- single-digit kind of growth rates coming out of that on pretty much similar activity level to what we entered into 2023. So we don't intend -- at this time, we don't intend to be ramping our program in the Lower 48 and are coming into the year at a similar level to what we exited 2023 at.

所以，是的，我們仍然看到一些增長來自美國頁岩油，即下 48 個州，主要是由二疊紀盆地推動的，但相對於去年的增長更為溫和。相對於我們預期的 48 國以下國家，我們處於相同的範圍，低至個位數的增長率，其活動水平與我們進入 2023 年的水平非常相似。所以我們不打算——目前，我們不打算在48 州以下地區擴大我們的計劃，今年的計劃將保持與2023 年退出時類似的水平。

Our next question will come from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

I guess either -- thanks, Ryan. Ryan or Bill, I'm not sure who wants to take this one. So we're always interested to know how you see your portfolio breakeven evolving as it relates to not so much current capital but sustaining capital. And what we're really trying to get to is that dividend breakeven -- that post-dividend breakeven level.

我想要么——謝謝，瑞安。瑞安或比爾，我不確定誰想接受這個。因此，我們總是很想知道您如何看待您的投資組合損益平衡的演變，因為它與流動資本無關，而是與維持資本有關。我們真正想要達到的是股息損益平衡——股息後的損益兩平水準。

If I may, maybe as a part B to that, I'm curious whether cash on the balance sheet benefits or is a priority currently as it relates to how you think about cash returns in that dividend context, given that you're entering a period of elevated spending here for a couple of years?

如果可以的話，也許作為其中的一部分，我很好奇資產負債表上的現金是否有益，或者是目前的優先事項，因為它與您如何看待股息背景下的現金回報有關，因為您正在進入一個這裡的支出增加了幾年？

Yes. Thanks, Doug. I'll -- can let Dominic roll in, he can give you some specifics around the breakeven, but at our mid-cycle price kind of deck, I think it's pretty consistent with what we laid out at AIM, and I can let Dominic give you a few more details to answer that question more specifically.

是的。謝謝，道格。我可以——可以讓多明尼克介入，他可以給你一些關於盈虧平衡點的細節，但在我們的中期價格套牌中，我認為這與我們在 AIM 制定的非常一致，我可以讓多明尼克為您提供更多詳細信息，以便更具體地回答該問題。

Yes. So maybe starting with our free cash flow breakeven, I take you back to our Analyst Meeting last April, for our 10-year plan, and at mid-cycle prices, we highlighted our free cash flow breakeven average is about $35 WTI. That is higher through the first half of the plan, as you mentioned. As we have the sort of pre-productive capital in the first half of the plan and then lower during the second half of that 10-year plan as those projects increasingly come on stream. So that's our free cash flow breakeven. And then for our dividend, you would add an additional sort of $8 to $9 on that right now, so.

是的。因此，也許從我們的自由現金流盈虧平衡開始，我帶您回到去年4 月的分析師會議，針對我們的10 年計劃，以中期價格計算，我們強調我們的自由現金流盈虧平衡平均值約為35 美元WTI。正如您所提到的，在計劃的前半部分，這一數字更高。因為我們在計劃的前半段擁有某種預生產資本，但隨著這些項目越來越多地投產，在該十年計劃的後半段我們會減少資本。這就是我們的自由現金流損益平衡點。然後對於我們的股息，您現在需要額外添加 8 到 9 美元，所以。

That's helpful. Maybe on the cash on the balance sheet?

這很有幫助。也許是資產負債表上的現金？

Yes, sure. We're really happy with where we're at on the balance sheet right now, Doug. So we exited the year with $6.9 billion of cash and $1 billion worth of long-term investments, like I mentioned. Our net debt-to-CFO ratio is in a really good spot, we're at 0.5 turns, and that's post-Surmont. So we're quite happy with where the balance sheet is at right now. And having a strong balance sheet is a strategic asset for the company. We continue to view it as such. And that's fundamentally one of the reasons why we feel really good about $9 billion of distributions this year.

是的，當然。道格，我們對目前的資產負債表狀況非常滿意。因此，正如我所提到的，我們在這一年結束時擁有 69 億美元的現金和價值 10 億美元的長期投資。我們的淨債務與財務長的比率非常好，目前為 0.5，而且這是在蘇爾蒙之後的情況。因此，我們對目前的資產負債表狀況非常滿意。擁有強大的資產負債表是公司的策略資產。我們繼續這樣看待它。這也是我們對今年 90 億美元的分配感到非常滿意的根本原因之一。

Yes. In light of the -- arguably a softer commodity price relative to where we started in 2023.

是的。鑑於大宗商品價格相對於 2023 年的起點而言可能更為疲軟。

Our next question will come from the line of Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德（Roger Read）。

I guess I'd like to get your thoughts, Ryan, on the M&A side. Obviously, you did the Surmont thing last year. There's still transactions going on and just how you think about your cost-of-supply approach to anything on the acquisition front that's out there, be it Lower 48 or elsewhere?

瑞安，我想我想聽聽你對併購的想法。顯然，你去年就做了蘇爾蒙特的事。交易仍在進行中，您如何看待收購方面的供應成本方法，無論是 Lower 48 還是其他地方？

Yes, Roger, appreciate -- yes, there's obviously a lot of M&A activity going on. It's not surprising in our business. And we've said that all along that we think there are going to be more even, yet to come as we think about the consolidation that's needed in the business.

是的，羅傑，很欣賞——是的，顯然有很多併購活動正在進行。這在我們的行業中並不奇怪。我們一直以來都說過，當我們考慮業務所需的整合時，我們認為還會有更多的均勻性出現。

Our approach hasn't changed. Our approach is we think about cost of supply. We think about the framework that we've laid out to the market over the last 4, 5 years. That's how we've executed some of our M&A activities. So again, it's got to fit that financial framework, how we think about mid-cycle price. It's got to make our 10-year plan better. The plan that we outline to the market.

我們的方法沒有改變。我們的方法是考慮供應成本。我們思考過去四、五年來向市場推出的框架。這就是我們執行一些併購活動的方式。因此，它必須符合財務框架，以及我們對中期價格的看法。它必須使我們的十年計劃變得更好。我們向市場概述的計劃。

Last year, we think is pretty strong, and it's underpinned by a low cost of supply, a diverse asset base. So we got to see a way to make that plan better through any inorganic M&A. And then finally, we got to see a way to make the asset better, and that's really dictated how we've approached M&A over the last number of years. And I think as we think about it going forward, that approach is consistent.

去年，我們認為相當強勁，這是由低成本供應和多元化資產基礎所支撐的。因此，我們必須找到一種方法，透過任何無機併購來使該計劃變得更好。最後，我們必須找到一種讓資產變得更好的方法，這確實決定了我們在過去幾年中進行併購的方式。我認為，當我們思考未來時，這種方法是一致的。

Our next question will come from the line of Nitin Kumar with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Nitin Kumar 和 Mizuho 的線路。

Ryan or Bill, I don't know who wants to take this one, but you reduced the cash return target from $11 billion to $9 billion. Last year, it was very evenly distributed between your dividends, both the fixed and the variable and the buyback, how should we think about the mix across those 3 channels in 2024?

瑞恩還是比爾，我不知道誰想接這個，但你們把現金回報目標從 110 億美元降到了 90 億美元。去年，固定股利、可變股利和回購股利之間的分配非常均勻，我們該如何考慮 2024 年這 3 個通路的組合？

Yes. So first, we think the important thing continues to be the total quantum of distribution. That's what we focus on. We think that's what matters most and we're really happy to start the year with an initial plan to return $9 billion to shareholders.

是的。因此，首先，我們認為重要的仍然是分配的總量。這就是我們關注的重點。我們認為這是最重要的，我們很高興以向股東返還 90 億美元的初步計劃開始新的一年。

Now when it comes to the mix, we look at a number of different factors and commodity prices, our own stock price and other considerations. And so for 2024, you've seen that we've shifted our mix to be a bit more weighted towards buybacks. About 60% of our total planned distributions. That would put our buybacks essentially flat with what we spent in 2023 about $5.3 billion, $5.4 billion. And that's -- we continue to like the value of our shares.

現在，當談到組合時，我們會考慮許多不同的因素以及商品價格、我們自己的股價和其他考慮因素。因此，到 2024 年，您已經看到我們改變了我們的投資組合，並且更加重視回購。約占我們計劃分配總量的 60%。這將使我們的回購與 2023 年的支出基本持平，約 53 億美元、54 億美元。那就是——我們繼續看好我們股票的價值。

So against that, the total cash component represents about 40% of our expected distributions and that's with $0.20 per share on VROC. And we think that represents a really solid mix of both cash and buybacks. And as we've always said, VROC provides a really flexible tool to give our distribution targets as prices adjust to the cycles. It's continued to serve us well in balancing our mix.

因此，總現金部分約占我們預期分配的 40%，其中 VROC 每股 0.20 美元。我們認為這代表了現金和回購的真正穩固組合。正如我們一直所說的那樣，VROC 提供了一個非常靈活的工具，可以根據價格根據週期調整來確定我們的分銷目標。它繼續為我們平衡我們的組合提供良好的服務。

Our next question will come from the line of Lloyd Byrne with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自勞埃德·伯恩和杰弗里斯的線路。

Thanks for all the details so far. Ryan, I was hoping just to get your thoughts on the administration's LNG pause and then in particular, Conoco's positioning and maybe whether it has any impact on your plans or your capital going forward?

感謝到目前為止的所有詳細資訊。瑞安，我只是希望了解您對政府暫停液化天然氣的想法，特別是康菲石油公司的定位，以及它是否對您未來的計劃或資本有任何影響？

Yes. Thanks, Lloyd. I can chime in and maybe ask Bill to add a few more details as well. But it's unfortunate, it's clearly more politically driven than fundamental that I think we feel pretty good. It just makes us feel a little bit better about what we're doing on the LNG side because of what we do have permitted. I think it's shortsighted in the short term, hopefully, it will be fixed in the long term. I can -- Bill can provide maybe a few more specifics around how we're thinking about Port Arthur Phase 1, Phase 2 as we think about the implications of what was announced.

是的。謝謝，勞埃德。我可以插話，也許還可以請比爾添加更多細節。但不幸的是，我認為我們感覺很好，這顯然更多是政治驅動而不是根本原因。這只是讓我們對我們在液化天然氣方面所做的事情感覺好一點，因為我們確實得到了許可。我認為這在短期內是短視的，希望從長遠來看它會得到解決。我可以——比爾可以提供更多關於我們如何考慮亞瑟港第一階段和第二階段的具體細節，因為我們正在考慮所宣布的內容的影響。

Yes. Sure, Ryan. We're really pleased that Port Arthur Phase 1. It's fully permitted. It's got, not only is free trade agreement permit, but it's non-free trade agreement permit. It's got environmental permits in place. So we're quite pleased to be investing in Port Arthur Phase 1. We think that actually what you're seeing right now makes that more valuable. And so it's a good fit in our portfolio.

是的。當然，瑞安。我們真的很高興亞瑟港第一期工程得到了完全許可。它不僅獲得了自由貿易協定的許可，而且還獲得了非自由貿易協定的許可。它已獲得環境許可證。因此，我們很高興投資亞瑟港一期。我們認為，實際上您現在所看到的情況使其更有價值。因此它非常適合我們的產品組合。

And we're continuing to look at developing a diversified portfolio of offtake. We remain interested in a number of LNG opportunities because we think the market is going to be strong for decades to come. We're focusing on low cost of supply, low greenhouse gas intensity resources that meet that transition pathway. And you saw us last year announce 2.2 million tons from MPL at Saguaro. And in the fourth quarter, we signed 0.2 million tons off of Sempra's ECA project on the west coast of Mexico for 5 years. So we're continuing to look for opportunities that really fit that framework. But regarding your question on permitting right now, Port Arthur is in a great spot.

我們正在繼續考慮開發多元化的承購組合。我們仍然對許多液化天然氣機會感興趣，因為我們認為市場在未來幾十年內將保持強勁。我們專注於滿足這條轉型路徑的低成本供應、低溫室氣體強度資源。去年我們宣布 Saguaro 的 MPL 產量為 220 萬噸。第四季度，我們簽署了Sempra位於墨西哥西海岸的ECA項目20萬噸的合同，為期5年。因此，我們正在繼續尋找真正適合該框架的機會。但關於你現在關於許可的問題，亞瑟港處於一個很好的位置。

Okay, great. So it doesn't change any plans going forward?

好的，太好了。那麼這不會改變任何未來的計劃嗎？

It's not impacting us right now.

目前對我們沒有影響。

Our next question will come from the line of John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

So my question is on Willow. You have the sanction out of the way now and even post-sanction, we've seen some news flow around lawsuits, which I assume you have some confidence in as an organization that won't cause any delays, but maybe you can confirm that. And then beyond that, maybe we can just speak to -- you can just speak to the construction plan for the year and what you're hoping to accomplish in terms of the progression of the build in '24 specifically.

所以我的問題是關於威洛的。現在製裁已經解除，甚至在製裁之後，我們已經看到一些有關訴訟的新聞，我認為您作為一個不會造成任何延誤的組織有一定的信心，但也許您可以確認這一點。除此之外，也許我們可以談談——你可以談談今年的建設計劃，以及你希望在 24 年的建設進展方面具體實現的目標。

John, this is Andy. I can take that question. So yes, it's pretty nice to also be at a point now where we can start talking about the project and not just give you a legal update. But we will -- given your question, I'll start with a bit of a legal update because as you mentioned, we had a fair bit of positive activity in the fourth quarter on that front. So just to sort of summarize where we are right now is that we're very pleased of both the Alaska District Court and the Ninth Circuit allowed construction work to proceed on the North Slope.

約翰，這是安迪。我可以回答這個問題。所以，是的，很高興現在我們可以開始討論該項目，而不僅僅是向您提供法律更新。但我們會——考慮到你的問題，我將從一些法律更新開始，因為正如你所提到的，我們在第四季度在這方面採取了相當積極的行動。因此，總結我們現在的情況是，我們對阿拉斯加地方法院和第九巡迴法院允許在北坡進行建設工作感到非常高興。

And then separately, the Alaska District Court upheld the legality of the ROD shall be the BLM. So as you mentioned, this is currently being appealed to the Ninth Circuit, but as we said before, we believe that BLM and the cooperating agencies conducted a really thorough process to satisfy all the legal requirements for them to grant their approvals. So these positive rulings gave us the certainty to make the FID decision.

隨後，阿拉斯加地方法院分別維持了 ROD 為 BLM 的合法性。正如您所提到的，目前正在向第九巡迴法院提出上訴，但正如我們之前所說，我們相信國土資源局和合作機構進行了非常徹底的流程，以滿足他們批准的所有法律要求。因此，這些積極的裁決讓我們有信心做出最終投資決定 (FID) 的決定。

Now then in terms of the second part of your question on the execution itself, since taking the FID, we're really pleased with how quickly we've ramped up the activity. We're now into our second winter construction season on the North Slope. And we're mobilizing 1,200 workers right now who are going to be building gravel roads, gravel pads for the facilities and beginning laying pipelines. We're also making some pretty significant progress with our modular facility fabrications.

現在，就您關於執行本身的問題的第二部分而言，自從採取最終投資決定以來，我們對我們加快活動的速度感到非常滿意。我們現在正進入北坡的第二個冬季施工季節。我們現在正在動員 1,200 名工人，他們將建造碎石路、設施碎石墊並開始鋪設管道。我們的模組化設施製造也取得了一些相當重大的進展。

So we do expect 2024 capital to be in the upper end of the previously communicated annual range of $1 billion to $1.5 billion per year. But our estimate for the capital to first production remains unchanged at $7 billion to $7.5 billion.

因此，我們確實預期 2024 年資本將處於先前通報的每年 10 億美元至 15 億美元的年度範圍的上限。但我們對首次投產資本的估計維持在 70 億至 75 億美元不變。

And then just to give you a bit more color in terms of the progress. We're now at a point where we have 3 quarters of the project scope under firm contract and expect to have 90% of that under contract by the end of '24. And of those contracts that we've issued so far, 70% are either lump sum or unit-rate contracts. And then these kind of contracts, we have agreed a price now so we have limited exposure to future inflation.

然後只是為了讓您在進度方面有更多的色彩。目前，我們有 3 個季度的專案範圍已簽訂固定合同，預計到 24 年底，90% 的專案範圍已簽訂合約。在我們迄今為止簽發的合約中，70% 是一次性合約或單價合約。對於此類合同，我們現在已經商定了價格，因此我們對未來通膨的風險有限。

So it's still very early, but like with all major projects, it's really important we get off to a fast start and we're really pleased. That's exactly what we're doing with Willow. But just to wrap it up, it's great to see at this point now our teams in full execution mode, focused on actually building Willow.

所以現在還很早，但就像所有重大專案一樣，快速啟動非常重要，我們真的很高興。這正是我們對 Willow 所做的事情。但總而言之，很高興看到我們的團隊現在處於全面執行模式，專注於實際建立 Willow。

Our next question will come from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

My question is more on kind of how you're thinking about production growth. You certainly have laid out pretty, what I call, stable to flattish plan for the year -- for first quarter, for the year. I guess kind of 2 questions around that. One, if you continue to be more efficient as you have been, would you take those savings and [follow] back to the ground and boost production a bit more? Or that -- or will those savings go back to the shareholders in some fashion?

我的問題更多的是關於您如何看待產量成長。你當然已經制定了漂亮的，我所說的，穩定到持平的今年計劃——第一季度，今年的計劃。我想大概有兩個問題。第一，如果你繼續像以前一樣提高效率，你會把這些節省下來的錢投入到實際生產中並進一步提高產量嗎？或者說——或者這些節省下來的錢會以某種方式返還給股東嗎？

And then secondly, couple of your large peers continue to be growing even a bit more than you in the Permian. I'm just wondering how you view sort of from a macro position, your responsibility when it comes to production growth.

其次，在二疊紀，你們的幾個大型同行的成長速度甚至比你們還要快一點。我只是想知道您如何從宏觀角度看待您在產量成長方面的責任。

Yes, Neal, it's Dominic here. I think -- I mean, first of all, I think there's probably 3 questions there actually. I'll take the activity one, we were holding our Lower 48 activity flat this year versus last year. We like that. We're still seeing some modest growth there, and we get -- we're really focused on efficiency there. And so if we did get more efficient and we felt there was some capital headroom there, I think -- I suspect that we would pretty much hold things flat because we're just so focused on efficiency. We don't want to swing our programs around.

是的，尼爾，我是多明尼克。我認為——我的意思是，首先，我認為實際上可能有 3 個問題。我拿活動一來說，今年我們的 Lower 48 活動與去年持平。我們喜歡這樣。我們仍然看到那裡有一些溫和的成長，而且我們真正關注那裡的效率。因此，如果我們確實提高了效率，並且我們覺得那裡有一些資本空間，我想——我懷疑我們幾乎會保持不變，因為我們非常關注效率。我們不想改變我們的計劃。

In terms of the total growth rate, remember growth is an outcome of our plan. We're not chasing growth. It's really an outcome of a return that's focused on returns. And so we're pretty happy with that sort of modest level growth. It's pretty consistent with what we said at AIM.

就總成長率而言，請記住成長是我們計劃的結果。我們不追求成長。這實際上是專注於回報的回報的結果。因此，我們對這種適度的成長感到非常滿意。這與我們在 AIM 上所說的非常一致。

In terms of the overall profile, just to give you a bit of color, I mean, Bill mentioned a lot of this in his prepared remarks, but we do expect sort of underlying production in the range of 2% to 4% growth this year versus last year. And the good thing about it is that we're seeing growth this year, not just coming from the Lower 48, but also from across our international portfolio. So it's nice to see the diversity of that portfolio coming through. And then, of course, on top of that, organic growth, we have the additional Surmont 50% interest on top of that.

就總體概況而言，我的意思是，比爾在他準備好的演講中提到了很多這一點，但我們確實預計今年的基本產量將增長 2% 至 4%與去年相比。好處是，我們今年看到了成長，不僅來自 48 個州，還來自我們的國際投資組合。因此，很高興看到該投資組合的多樣性得以實現。當然，除了有機成長之外，我們還有額外的 Surmont 50% 權益。

In terms of the shape for the year, fairly ratable year-over-year growth by quarter, except for Q1, we have the weather impacts. Bill mentioned that about 20,000 barrels a day whether, we'll see in Q1. And then in Q3, we have our turnaround impacts. So we have about 25,000 to 30,000 barrels a day of turnaround impacts this year. Most of that will be in the third quarter. And that includes sort of month-long turnaround we have at Surmont, which occurs every 5 years.

就今年的形狀而言，按季度同比增長相當可觀，除了第一季外，我們受到天氣影響。比爾提到每天大約 20,000 桶，我們將在第一季看到。然後在第三季度，我們產生了扭虧為盈的影響。因此，今年我們每天大約有 25,000 至 30,000 桶的扭虧為盈。其中大部分將在第三季進行。這包括我們在 Surmont 每 5 年進行一次為期一個月的周轉。

So -- but anyway, we're all very pleased with just where the growth is coming from. We are pleased with the level of growth. And I think we're pretty committed to keep the program steady, stable and focus on efficiency.

所以——但無論如何，我們都對成長的來源感到非常滿意。我們對成長水準感到滿意。我認為我們非常致力於保持該計劃的穩定、穩定並專注於效率。

Yes, I might just reiterate, we just don't want to whipsaw the teams either up or down. We just like the constant pace of the execution and find that -- gets the efficiencies at a maximum, gets of our returns -- really maximizes our returns.

是的，我可能只是重申一下，我們只是不想讓球隊上下左右搖擺。我們只是喜歡恆定的執行速度，並發現——獲得最大的效率，獲得我們的回報——真正最大化了我們的回報。

Our next question will come the line of Josh Silverstein with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的喬許·西爾弗斯坦（Josh Silverstein）。

So I just wanted to touch on the Montney. This is one of the key growth areas that you had highlighted back in April last year. You mentioned the processing facility started up in the back half of the year as well. I know it's 60% liquids, but how is the lower natural gas price environment change the way you're thinking about development there?

所以我只想談談蒙特尼。這是您去年四月強調的關鍵成長領域之一。您提到加工設施也在今年下半年啟動。我知道其中 60% 是液體，但較低的天然氣價格環境如何改變您考慮在那裡發展的方式？

And along those same lines, I know there's only a small uptick in Canadian spend for the year. I figured that, that might be related to Surmont more than this. So any help there would be great.

沿著同樣的思路，我知道今年加拿大的支出只有小幅成長。我想，這與蘇爾蒙特的關係可能​​不只如此。所以任何幫助都會很棒。

This is Andy. Maybe just taking the first part of your question, sort of the natural gas, it really doesn't impact our -- natural gas doesn't really impact our long-term development plans. And then also putting that in context is sort of, we have our position in Surmont where we actually are a user of natural gas. So that doesn't really change our Montney development plans.

這是安迪。也許只是考慮你問題的第一部分，例如天然氣，它確實不會影響我們的——天然氣不會真正影響我們的長期發展計劃。然後將其放在上下文中，我們在蘇爾蒙特擁有我們的位置，我們實際上是天然氣的用戶。所以這並沒有真正改變我們的蒙特尼開發計畫。

I think in terms of the progress we're making on Montney, we are going to be ramping this year. We've just started the second rig. And just to give you sort of context of the numbers here where in our full year '23 production was about 24,000 barrels a day. We averaged 33,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter. And that's -- we're expecting that to grow now throughout the year.

我認為就我們在蒙特尼的進展而言，今年我們將取得更大進展。我們剛開始第二台設備。只是為了給您一些數位背景，23 年全年的產量約為每天 24,000 桶。第四季我們平均每天生產 33,000 桶。我們預計這一數字全年都會成長。

And then in terms of the CapEx, the modest growth in our CapEx you're seeing in Canada, it is a combination of additional equity we have in Surmont, but also adding the second rig of the Montney.

然後就資本支出而言，您在加拿大看到的資本支出適度增長，這是我們在蘇爾蒙特擁有的額外股權的組合，而且還增加了蒙特尼的第二個鑽機。

Next question will come from the line of Bob Brackett with Bernstein.

下一個問題將來自鮑勃·布拉克特和伯恩斯坦的對話。

I was looking at the triple-digit organic reserve replacement ratio and wondering some of moving parts. I'm kind of curious what impact did the sanctioning of Willow play on that?

我正在研究三位數的有機儲備替代率，並想知道一些變化的部分。我有點好奇對 Willow 的製裁對此有何影響？

Bob. Dominic here. Yes, I mean, we're very pleased to see strong organic and total reserve replacement again this year. And we're seeing strong contributions from across the portfolio. So on the organic side, first of all, Lower 48 is doing well with the advancement of our resource development plans there, its organic replacement ratio is well in excess of 100%.

鮑伯.多米尼克在這裡。是的，我的意思是，我們很高興今年再次看到強勁的有機和總儲備替代品。我們看到整個產品組合做出了巨大貢獻。所以在有機方面，首先，隨著我們資源開發計畫的推進，Lower 48 做得很好，它的有機替代率遠超過 100%。

We've got contributions from Montney. And then the Willow piece, yes, that's a really strategic piece for us. So we -- the way that works with bookings on major projects, you have an initial booking and then you book as the project develops, that's normal.

我們得到了蒙特尼的貢獻。然後是 Willow 作品，是的，這對我們來說是一個真正具有戰略意義的作品。所以我們——主要項目的預訂方式是，你先進行初步預訂，然後隨著項目的進展進行預訂，這是正常的。

So our initial booking was 160 -- about 160 million barrels on Willow. So that's what we book on sanction. And then as we develop up the development wells and the project, we'll see that approach towards our base case resource estimate of 600 million barrels for Willow. So yes, very strong there.

所以我們最初在 Willow 上的預訂量是 160 桶——大約 1.6 億桶。這就是我們關於制裁的規定。然後，當我們開發開發井和專案時，我們將看到這種方法可實現 Willow 6 億桶的基本情況資源估算。所以是的，那裡非常強大。

And of course, on the total reserve replacement, we add in the A&D and we get the benefit of about 200 million barrels of resource that came with -- reserves that came with the Surmont 50% acquisition. So again, another year of strong total reserve replacement for us, which is good.

當然，在總儲量替代中，我們加上了 A&D，我們就獲得了約 2 億桶資源的好處——收購 Surmont 50% 股權所帶來的儲量。因此，對我們來說，又是一年強勁的總儲備替代，這很好。

Our next question will come from the line of Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究中心的 Sam Margolin。

Thanks for all the detail today. Maybe a follow-up on Lower 48 capital. There's some deflation that you've called out. It seems like most of it right now is driven by consumables and commodities, but Ryan, you mentioned activity levels overall have cooled significantly over the course of the half of '23. And so I was wondering if you -- where you think we are in maybe the life cycle of this Lower 48 deflationary trend. And maybe if that presents some opportunities to term out capacity and add even more visibility to the spending plan because, as you mentioned, you're not really going to move activity around in different scenarios.

感謝今天提供的所有詳細資訊。也許是 Lower 48 首都的後續。你提到了一些通貨緊縮。現在看來大部分都是由消費品和大宗商品驅動的，但是 Ryan，您提到總體活動水平在 23 年上半年顯著降溫。所以我想知道您是否認為我們可能處於 48 州通貨緊縮趨勢的生命週期中。也許這提供了一些機會來確定容量並為支出計劃增加更多的可見性，因為正如您所提到的，您實際上不會在不同的情況下移動活動。

Yes, Sam, I can let Nick follow up on some of the details. But certainly, we look at any opportunity to term out things when we see that opportunity. And I think the service side of the business, I think like, ConocoPhillips, because our plans don't change, and we have consistent execution and consistent rig counts and frac spreads and all the other support activity that goes with the business. And the deflation, it's kind of a tale of a couple of different areas in certain commodities of spend, but I can let Nick chime in specific to the Lower 48 there.

是的，山姆，我可以讓尼克跟進一些細節。但當然，當我們看到任何機會時，我們都會尋找機會來解決問題。我認為業務的服務方面，我認為，康菲石油公司，因為我們的計劃不會改變，我們有一致的執行和一致的鑽機數量和壓裂價差以及與業務相關的所有其他支援活動。至於通貨緊縮，這是某些商品支出的幾個不同領域的故事，但我可以讓尼克具體談談 48 州的情況。

Yes, Sam, like Ryan was mentioning, again, you look at our activity level, it's flat to 2023. So stable rigs, stable frac crews. And the teams are really just focusing on driving operating efficiency, capital efficiency and then capturing that deflation, as you mentioned, as we showed in the prepared slides there that we posted, and it's going to range across a number of spending categories. So we've got OCTG, we got some proppant as well as rig horsepower. We'll look at all of the contracts across our vendors and see if we want to term them up.

是的，Sam，就像 Ryan 再次提到的那樣，你看看我們的活動水平，到 2023 年持平。如此穩定的鑽機，穩定的壓裂人員。正如您所提到的，這些團隊實際上只是專注於提高營運效率、資本效率，然後捕捉通貨緊縮，正如我們在我們發布的準備好的幻燈片中所示，它將涵蓋多個支出類別。所以我們有油井管、一些支撐劑以及鑽孔機馬力。我們將查看供應商的所有合同，看看是否要終止它們。

Typically, we're looking at well-to-well, pad-to-pad as far as rigs, little longer-term contracts on our frac spreads, especially the e-fracs. But the key thing for us is really just focusing on operating efficiency and capital efficiency with the level-loaded steady-state program that we have in 2024.

通常，我們會關注井對井、逐井鑽機、壓裂價差的長期合同，尤其是電子壓裂。但對我們來說，關鍵實際上是透過 2024 年的水平負載穩態計畫來專注於營運效率和資本效率。

Our next question will come from the line of Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Ryan Todd 和 Piper Sandler。

Maybe if I could ask on a couple of the Lower 48 assets. The Eagle Ford production has been declining over the last few quarters in 2023. What's the right way for us to think about direction of production there? Is the goal to hold it flat or modestly decline or grow going forward? And maybe the same question for the Bakken.

也許我可以詢問一下 48 州的一些資產。 Eagle Ford 的產量在 2023 年的最後幾季一直在下降。我們思考那裡的生產方向的正確方法是什麼？未來的目標是保持平穩、小幅下滑還是成長？也許巴肯也有同樣的問題。

Yes, Ryan, just talk first on Eagle Ford. When you look Q3 to Q4, we had that 9% production drop. That met our type curve expectations. There's no productivity issues or operational concerns there. It was a conscious decision as we looked at the second half of 2023, and as we've talked about, the completion efficiencies are actually outpacing our drilling efficiency. So it's a good problem to have.

是的，瑞安，先談談伊格爾福特。當你觀察第三季到第四季時，我們的產量下降了 9%。這符合我們的類型曲線預期。那裡不存在生產力問題或營運問題。當我們展望 2023 年下半年時，這是一個有意識的決定，正如我們所討論的，完井效率實際上超過了我們的鑽井效率。所以這是一個好問題。

So we've worked down through kind of our working level of DUCs and decided on the second half of 2023 to take a, what I call an operational frac gap. So we've built some DUCs in that period of time and then reinstated late 2023, the frac crew. So it's really intentional, really good performance from the Eagle Ford going forward.

因此，我們已經確定了 DUC 的工作水平，並決定在 2023 年下半年採取我所說的操作壓裂缺口。因此，我們在那段時間建造了一些 DUC，然後在 2023 年底恢復了壓裂人員。因此，Eagle Ford 未來的表現確實非常出色。

Bakken, very similar. We've hit some production records. You think about a legacy asset like the Bakken, and we were hitting 110,000 barrels equivalent per day. We've got a long level of inventory. We'll have a steady program up there as well.

巴肯，非常相似。我們已經創下了一些生產記錄。想想像巴肯這樣的傳統資產，我們每天的產量達到 11 萬桶當量。我們有大量庫存。我們也會在那裡有一個穩定的計劃。

Our next question will come from the line of Alastair Syme with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆 (Alastair Syme)。

I just wanted to return to the questions and -- circle around a little bit on Permian. You've mentioned supply chain costs and sort of wrap it up with efficiency because -- and I guess, last April, you presented these cost of supply numbers that include some forward assumptions about cost and efficiency. So I just wanted to get a sense of where you think you stand relative to those assumptions, i.e. the Permian moving up, down or sideways on your cost of supply?

我只是想回到問題上來——稍微繞一下二疊紀。您提到了供應鏈成本，並用效率來概括它，因為——我猜，去年四月，您提出了這些供應成本數字，其中包括一些關於成本和效率的前瞻性假設。所以我只是想了解一下您認為相對於這些假設的立場，即二疊紀的供應成本是上升、下降還是橫盤？

Yes. I'll first talk about just the overall efficiency assumptions that we have and what we're seeing out in the field. To remind you on both D&C, we continue to see step changes in both the drilling side as well as the completion side. Probably differential on the completion efficiencies, as I just mentioned, related to Eagle Ford.

是的。我首先將討論我們所擁有的整體效率假設以及我們在該領域所看到的情況。提醒您有關 D&C 的信息，我們繼續看到鑽井方面和完井方面都發生了重大變化。正如我剛才提到的，與伊格爾福特有關的完成效率可能存在差異。

And we're leveraging all of the different kind of suite of opportunities to improve those frac efficiencies and drilling efficiencies. I'll just mention a few. And the key thing here is that we're continuing to see improvement kind of quarter-to-quarter, year-to-year, and that manifests itself into essentially a 10% to 15% improvement in our pumping hours per day year-to-year.

我們正在利用所有不同類型的機會來提高壓裂效率和鑽井效率。我只提幾個。這裡的關鍵是，我們繼續看到逐季度、逐年的改進，這表現為我們每天的泵送時間逐年提高了 10% 到 15%。- 年。

A couple of items that we have out there, we continue to deploy simul-frac, across the board, but also super zipper down in Eagle Ford. We've had really good success of this particular application where we can hook up -- for example, on a 4-well pad, we'll hook up all of the wells and if we have any operational downtime, we can quickly move from well to well and have high pumping hours and therefore, more stages per day. So that's been really successful.

我們現有的一些項目，我們繼續全面部署同步壓裂，但也在鷹福特部署超級拉鍊。我們在這個特定的應用程式中取得了非常好的成功，我們可以在其中連接 - 例如，在 4 孔板上，我們將連接所有的孔，如果我們有任何操作停機時間，我們可以快速從井與井之間，抽水時間長，因此每天需要更多階段。所以這真的很成功。

On the -- we also remote frac, I've mentioned that before. We're seeing good success in that where we don't have to mob and demob a frac spread, so we can move on to Pad 2, Pad 3 without demobing it.

關於——我們也進行遠程壓裂，我之前已經提到過。我們看到了良好的成功，因為我們不必對壓裂擴散進行暴動和解散，因此我們可以繼續進行 Pad 2、Pad 3 而無需對其進行解散。

And then finally, I'll just pivot to the drilling side. We've deployed that real-time drilling intelligence group out in the Permian. We've got the entire rig fleet that we're monitoring 24/7 where we can optimize the plan, we can troubleshoot and we can steer the wells and we're seeing really promising results, 10% improvement in rate of penetration there. So combined through all of that, we are seeing improvement in those efficiencies and again, 10% to 15% improvement in pump hours per day, as I mentioned on the completion side.

最後，我將轉向鑽井方面。我們已經在二疊紀部署了即時鑽井情報小組。我們對整個鑽機隊進行 24/7 全天候監控，我們可以優化計劃，排除故障，控製油井，我們看到了非常有希望的結果，滲透率提高了 10%。因此，綜合所有這些，我們看到效率有所提高，每天的泵工時數再次提高了 10% 到 15%，正如我在完井方面提到的那樣。

Our next question will come from the line of Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題將來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

I guess maybe it's for Bill or maybe it's for Ryan. Ryan, you have said that the industry will need more consolidation and you have proven in the past that you are not shy in doing your share. For the right deal, when you're looking at your balance sheet today, how much you're willing to put on the debt? Or how much are you willing to stretch your balance sheet from that standpoint? If it is a right deal. Is there a number or a ratio or anything that you can share so at least we get some better understanding?

我想也許是為了比爾，也可能是為了瑞安。瑞安（Ryan），您說過該行業需要更多的整合，並且您過去已經證明您並不羞於盡自己的一份力量。為了達成正確的交易，當您今天查看資產負債表時，您願意承擔多少債務？或者從這個角度來看，您願意將資產負債表擴大多少？如果這是一筆正確的交易。您是否可以分享一個數字或比率或任何內容，以便至少我們可以更好地理解？

And from a balance sheet standpoint, the $9 billion of the distribution for this year, is there a fixed amount or that it will fluctuate based on the commodity prices, either better or worse than your current assumption?

從資產負債表的角度來看，今年的 90 億美元分配金額是固定的還是會根據大宗商品價格而波動，比您當前的假設更好還是更差？

Yes. You kind of stuck in a couple there, Paul, but let me start with the last one first. The $9 billion, as we said in our release is a starting point. Now, we recognize the commodity prices are pretty volatile, both up and down. And I mean, we've seen WTI approaching $16, we've seen it approaching $80. So I think we view the $9 billion as a starting point.

是的。保羅，你有點陷入困境，但讓我先從最後一個開始。正如我們在新聞稿中所說，90 億美元是一個起點。現在，我們認識到大宗商品價格波動很大，無論上漲或下跌。我的意思是，我們已經看到 WTI 接近 16 美元，我們已經看到它接近 80 美元。所以我認為我們將 90 億美元視為一個起點。

And folks should feel pretty comfortable that we're well above our mid-cycle price. We're well above our 30% commitment to return capital to the shareholders and again, look at our history. So you should feel comfortable that we'll adjust. It's a starting point for us, and we'll see how the commodity prices go through the remainder of the year.

人們應該對我們的價格遠高於中期價格感到非常滿意。我們遠高於向股東返還資本 30% 的承諾，再次回顧我們的歷史。所以你應該放心我們會進行調整。這對我們來說是一個起點，我們將看看今年剩餘時間大宗商品價格的走勢。

On the second part, look, we consider the balance sheet to be a pretty significant asset inside the company. We're -- we will maintain an A credit rating. The balance sheet is strong for the company. We've got 2.5 net debt turn to cash. So we like where the battle sheet is at, and it gives us the cushion in these volatile commodity price to be able to return the money that we're spending and setting, both to grow company organically and the distribution level that we're starting with at the $9 billion.

在第二部分中，我們認為資產負債表是公司內部相當重要的資產。我們將維持 A 級信用評等。該公司的資產負債表強勁。我們有 2.5 倍的淨債務轉化為現金。因此，我們喜歡戰鬥表的位置，它為我們在這些波動的商品價格中提供了緩衝，以便能夠返還我們支出和設置的資金，既可以實現公司的有機發展，也可以提高我們開始的分銷水平90億美元。

We'll -- again, on the M&A side, Paul, it's really what kind of opportunities present themselves that have to fit our financial framework. And if they fit our framework and there's something that we can make better -- makes our 10-year plan better, we've been willing to execute those and -- but we'll look at the way we execute those on a case-by-case basis.

保羅，我們再次強調，在併購方面，真正存在的機會必須符合我們的財務架構。如果它們符合我們的框架，並且有一些我們可以做得更好的東西——使我們的十年計劃更好，我們一直願意執行這些計劃——但我們會看看我們在案例中執行這些計劃的方式——視具體情況而定。

Surmont, we funded with some debt, but it made sense for that particular asset to do that. We've done other -- we've used cash and other means to fund the acquisitions. So it's pretty hard to say depending on any opportunities that present themselves what we might do.

Surmont，我們透過一些債務提供資金，但對於該特定資產來說這樣做是有意義的。我們還做了其他的事情——我們使用現金和其他方式來為收購提供資金。因此，根據出現的任何機會，很難說我們可能會做什麼。

Ryan, is there a maximum debt you're willing to add based on a single transaction?

Ryan，您願意根據單筆交易添加的最大債務是否有上限？

I don't have a -- it depends on the circumstance, Paul. I don't -- we're not going to stress the balance sheet. So we're not -- we've worked hard to get the balance sheet where it's at today. We're not -- I'm not interested in going back to where we were 7, 8 years ago on the balance sheet.

我沒有——這取決於具體情況，保羅。我不——我們不會給資產負債表帶來壓力。所以我們不是——我們一直在努力讓資產負債表達到今天的水平。我不想回到七、八年前的資產負債表狀態。

Our next question will come from the line of Leo Mariani with ROTH MKM.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Leo Mariani 和 ROTH MKM 的線路。

You talked about having some pretty decent international growth this year, well and above the Lower 48, which, obviously, a nice contributor as well. It sounded like some of that is coming from the Montney in Canada. Can you maybe just detail some of the other international growth that you're seeing? I imagine there could be some chunkier projects that might be coming online during the year, so any color around that would be helpful.

您談到今年國際成長相當可觀，遠高於 48 國以下國家，顯然，這也是一個不錯的貢獻者。聽起來其中一些來自加拿大的蒙特尼。您能否詳細介紹一下您所看到的其他一些國際成長？我想今年可能會有一些更厚的項目上線，所以周圍的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes, sure. This is Andy. I can take that question. We actually discussed this in a bit of detail on our last quarterly call. And you're right, we do have some good momentum on the Alaskan international projects. So just to give you a feel about where they're coming from across the portfolio. So in Norway, we achieved first production ahead of schedule in 3 of the 4 subsea tiebacks and the fourth one is expected to come online as planned in the second quarter.

是的，當然。這是安迪。我可以回答這個問題。實際上，我們在上一次季度電話會議上對此進行了一些詳細討論。你是對的，我們在阿拉斯加國際項目上確實有一些良好的勢頭。只是為了讓您了解它們在整個投資組合中的來源。因此，在挪威，我們在 4 個海底回接中的 3 個中提前實現了首次生產，第四個預計將按計劃在第二季度上線。

In China, our partner brought the first Bohai Phase 4B platform online in October and then the second one came on in December. Also in December, we achieved first oil from Pad 267 in Surmont, and we expect to gradually ramp that up over the coming months.

在中國，我們的合作夥伴於 10 月上線了第一個渤海 4B 期平台，隨後於 12 月上線了第二個平台。同樣在 12 月，我們在蘇爾蒙特的 267 油田獲得了第一批石油，我們預計在未來幾個月內將逐步增加產量。

As I previously discussed, in Montney, the start of a CPF2 really allowed us to start ramping production there. In the third quarter, and we expect you to see growth in 2024 in the Montney from the CPF2 and also the second rig. So we're really happy with sort of the spread we have across Alaskan international where the growth is coming from. And I think, as we said in one of the earlier questions that A&I is going to be providing a significant part of the total company growth this year.

正如我之前所討論的，在蒙特尼，CPF2 的啟動確實讓我們能夠開始在那裡提高產量。在第三季度，我們預計 2024 年，CPF2 和第二台鑽機將在 Montney 上成長。因此，我們對阿拉斯加國際機場的分佈感到非常滿意，這是成長的來源。我認為，正如我們在之前的一個問題中所說，A&I 將在今年公司整體成長中發揮重要作用。

We have no further questions at this time. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。