康菲 (COP) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the third-quarter 2024 ConocoPhillips earnings conference call. My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加康菲石油公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫莉茲，我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Phil Gresh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Phil Gresh。先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning. Thank you, Liz. And welcome, everyone, to our third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Bill Bullock, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Andy O'Brien, Senior Vice President of Strategy, Commercial, Sustainability, and Technology; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48; and Kirk Johnson, Senior Vice President of Global Operations.

早安.謝謝你，莉茲。歡迎大家參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾位成員，包括董事長兼執行長 Ryan Lance；比爾‧布洛克，執行副總裁兼財務長； Andy O'Brien，策略、商業、永續發展與技術資深副總裁； Nick Olds，Lower 48 執行副總裁；柯克·約翰遜（Kirk Johnson），全球營運資深副總裁。

Ryan and Bill will kick off the call with some opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions. Along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation which you can find on the Investor Relations website.

瑞安和比爾將以一些開場白開始電話會議，之後團隊將回答您的問題。除了今天的發布之外，我們還發布了補充財務資料和幻燈片演示文稿，您可以在投資者關係網站上找到這些資料。

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. We will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website. As we move to the Q&A afterwards, as a reminder, we will take one question per caller.

在本次電話會議中，我們將根據目前預期做出前瞻性陳述。由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期向 SEC 提交的文件中提到的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。我們將參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到與最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的對帳。當我們隨後進入問答環節時，提醒一下，我們將為每個來電者回答一個問題。

With that, I will turn the call over to Ryan.

這樣，我會將電話轉給瑞安。

Thanks, Phil, and thank you to everyone for joining our third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Let me start with a few comments about our results and the outlook for the rest of the year, and then I will provide an update on the Marathon Oil acquisition. Starting with the results, the company demonstrated strong execution in the third quarter. We exceeded the high end of our production guidance for the quarter and raised our full-year production outlook, largely driven by Lower 48 performance.

謝謝 Phil，也謝謝大家參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。讓我先對我們的業績和今年剩餘時間的前景發表一些評論，然後我將提供有關馬拉松石油收購的最新情況。從業績開始，該公司在第三季表現出了強勁的執行力。我們超越了本季產量指引的上限，並上調了全年產量預期，這主要是受到 Lower 48 州業績的推動。

On return of capital, we remain on track to distribute at least $9 billion to shareholders this year. We have officially incorporated our VROC into the ordinary dividend. And consistent with our long-term track record, we are confident that we can grow our ordinary dividend at a top quartile rate relative to the S&P 500. On buybacks, our planned fourth-quarter share repurchases will approach $2 billion, and we have increased our existing share repurchase authorization by up to $20 billion.

在資本返還方面，我們今年仍有望向股東分配至少 90 億美元。我們已正式將 VROC 納入普通股利。與我們的長期業績記錄一致，我們有信心以相對於標準普爾500 指數最高四分之一的速度增加普通股息。我們已經增加了我們現有的股票回購授權最多可達 200 億美元。

Shifting to our planned acquisition of Marathon Oil, we're still on track to close this quarter. In the meantime, integration planning is progressing well. The team has now fully mapped out how we plan to achieve the initial guidance of at least $500 million of synergies, primarily from the overhead and operating cost reduction categories that we have previously talked about. And we now expect to at least double the initial $500 million target, driven by capital optimization.

轉向我們計劃收購馬拉松石油公司，我們仍有望在本季結束。同時，整合規劃進展順利。該團隊現已全面規劃出我們計劃如何實現至少 5 億美元協同效應的初步指導，主要來自我們之前討論過的管理費用和營運成本削減類別。現在，在資本優化的推動下，我們預計將比最初的 5 億美元目標至少翻倍。

While we are still finalizing our 2025 budget and will provide formal guidance in February, we are confident that the combined company can grow at a low single-digit rate again in 2025 with pro forma CapEx of less than $13 billion. So to wrap up, we're pleased with our operational execution, and we look forward to closing the Marathon Oil acquisition later this quarter.

雖然我們仍在敲定 2025 年預算並將在 2 月提供正式指導，但我們相信合併後的公司能夠在 2025 年再次以較低的個位數成長率成長，預計資本支出將低於 130 億美元。總而言之，我們對我們的營運執行感到滿意，我們期待在本季稍後完成對馬拉松石油公司的收購。

Now let me turn the call over to Bill to cover our third-quarter performance and 2024 guidance in more detail.

現在讓我將電話轉給 Bill，更詳細地介紹我們的第三季業績和 2024 年指引。

Well, thanks, Ryan. In the third quarter, we generated $1.78 per share in adjusted earnings. We produced 1,917,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 3% underlying growth year over year. And that's despite having an estimated impact of 85,000 barrels per day of turnarounds during the quarter, including approximately 55,000 barrels for Surmont's once-every-five-year turnaround.

嗯，謝謝，瑞安。第三季度，我們調整後每股收益為 1.78 美元。我們每天生產 1,917,000 桶石油當量，年增 3%。儘管預計本季的周轉影響每天為 85,000 桶，其中包括 Surmont 每五年一次的周轉影響約 55,000 桶。

Lower 48 achieved record production of 1,147,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which represents 6% underlying growth year over year. Now by basin, we produced 781,000 in the Permian, 246,000 in the Eagle Ford, and 107,000 in the Bakken. Moving to cash flows, third-quarter CFO was over $4.7 billion, which included over $400 million of APLNG distributions.

下 48 個州的產量達到創紀錄的 1,147,000 桶油當量/日，年增 6%。現在按流域劃分，我們在二疊紀生產了 781,000 輛，在 Eagle Ford 生產了 246,000 輛，在巴肯生產了 107,000 輛。轉向現金流，第三季 CFO 超過 47 億美元，其中包括超過 4 億美元的 APLNG 分配。

Operating working capital was a $1 billion tailwind in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $2.9 billion. And we returned $2.1 billion to shareholders, including $1.2 billion in buybacks and $900 million in ordinary dividends and VROC payments. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $7.1 billion and $1 billion in long-term liquid investments.

本季營運資本為 10 億美元帶來了推動力。資本支出為 29 億美元。我們向股東返還了 21 億美元，其中包括 12 億美元的回購以及 9 億美元的普通股息和 VROC 付款。截至本季末，我們的現金和短期投資為 71 億美元，長期流動投資為 10 億美元。

Now turning to guidance, for the fourth quarter, we expect production to be in a range of 1.99 million to 2.03 million barrels per day. For the full year, we now expect production to be 1.94 million to 1.95 million barrels per day, up 10,000 barrels per day from prior guidance. On cash flows, we're increasing full-year guidance for APLNG distributions by $100 million to $1.5 billion, and we expect over $200 million of distributions in the fourth quarter. All other guidance items are unchanged. And as a reminder, guidance excludes the impact of pending acquisitions.

現在轉向指導，我們預計第四季產量將在 199 萬桶/日至 203 萬桶/日之間。我們目前預計全年產量為 194 萬桶至 195 萬桶/日，較先前指引增加 1 萬桶/日。在現金流方面，我們將 APLNG 分配的全年指引增加 1 億美元至 15 億美元，我們預計第四季的分配將超過 2 億美元。所有其他指導項目均保持不變。需要提醒的是，指導意見排除了即將進行的收購的影響。

So in conclusion, we continue to deliver on our strategic initiatives. We remain focused on executing our plan for 2024, we are committed to staying highly competitive on our shareholder distributions, and we are progressing toward closing the Marathon transaction.

總之，我們將繼續實施我們的策略性舉措。我們仍然專注於執行 2024 年的計劃，致力於在股東分配上保持高度競爭力，並且我們正在努力完成馬拉松交易。

That concludes our prepared remarks. I'll turn it back over to the operator to start the Q&A.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我會將其轉回給接線員以開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）Neil Mehta，高盛。

Good morning, Ryan and team. I wanted to spend some time on the synergies, because the comment on the call about the doubling of synergies is notable. Can you just unpack that? Where are you seeing it? Should we think about it as an OpEx item, as capital items, and when we could actually see it in the numbers? How long does it take to be realized?

早安，瑞安和團隊。我想花一些時間討論協同效應，因為電話會議上有關協同效應加倍的評論值得注意。你能把它拆開嗎？你在哪裡看到的？我們是否應該將其視為營運支出項目、資本項目，以及何時可以真正在數字中看到它？需要多長時間才能實現？

Good morning, Neil. This is Andy. I can take that question. So just to unpack it, maybe we go back to what we said on the second-quarter call was that we stood up a team who'd been working the bottoms-up integration synergy capture detail. Now that team has already fully mapped out how we're going to achieve $500 million that we initially guided to on a run-rate basis within a year of closing.

早安，尼爾。這是安迪。我可以回答這個問題。因此，為了解開它，也許我們回到我們在第二季度電話會議上所說的，我們成立了一個團隊，一直致力於自下而上的整合協同捕獲細節。現在，該團隊已經全面規劃出我們將如何在交易完成後的一年內實現最初按運行率指導的 5 億美元目標。

We've also now finished designing the organization. We've identified non-labor duplication and process efficiencies to optimize costs. Also, you might remember, during the acquisition announcement call, I mentioned there would be additional upside from reworking the combined drilling and refrac programs at the asset level.

我們現在也完成了組織的設計。我們已經確定了非人工重複和流程效率來優化成本。另外，您可能還記得，在收購公告電話會議中，我提到在資產層面重新設計組合鑽井和重複壓裂計畫將會帶來額外的好處。

We've now completed that detailed modeling across all three basins. So versus 2024 capital spend, we plan to reduce the combined ConocoPhillips and Marathon program by at least $500 million in 2025. Now these reductions come primarily from Eagle Ford and Bakken. We're confident in our ability to achieve an optimal plateau level at lower levels of activities versus stand-alone companies. Or simply put, we need fewer rigs and fewer frac crews to achieve the same outcome.

我們現在已經完成了所有三個盆地的詳細建模。因此，與 2024 年的資本支出相比，我們計劃在 2025 年將康菲石油公司和馬拉松項目的合併資金支出減少至少 5 億美元。與獨立公司相比，我們有能力在較低的活動水準上達到最佳的穩定水準。或者簡單地說，我們需要更少的鑽孔機和壓裂人員來實現相同的結果。

So when you combine all of that with the original announced synergies of $500 million, we now have a clear line of sight of doubling that to $1 billion. Now in terms of the timing of those synergies, you can effectively think the CapEx is happening immediately when we get into 2025 in the reduction in the capital budget. And as I said earlier, the OpEx and G&A, that's going to ramp over time, but we'll be there on a run rate within the 12 months of closing.

因此，當你將所有這些與最初宣布的 5 億美元的協同效應結合起來時，我們現在有一個清晰的目標：將其增加一倍，達到 10 億美元。現在，就這些協同效應的時機而言，您可以有效地認為，當我們進入 2025 年資本預算減少時，資本支出就會立即發生。正如我之前所說，營運支出和一般行政費用將隨著時間的推移而增加，但我們將在交易結束後的 12 個月內達到運行速度。

Yes, Neil, I would probably add that -- you'll recognize this is all done pre-close. We haven't closed the transaction and haven't really gotten a complete look under the hood. So I'm guessing or expecting that we'll have additional OpEx opportunities. We'll have additional capital opportunities, additional commercial opportunities as we're able to dive in post-close and look a little bit closer at the contracts and some of those things that we have going on. So stay tuned in this space.

是的，尼爾，我可能會補充一點——你會意識到這一切都是在交易結束前完成的。我們還沒有完成交易，也沒有真正全面了解幕後情況。所以我猜測或期望我們會有額外的營運支出機會。我們將擁有更多的資本機會、更多的商業機會，因為我們能夠在交割後深入研究合約以及我們正在進行的一些事情。所以請繼續關注這個空間。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊蓋特，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks. Gosh, dividend growth per share, Ryan. Look at your stock price today. Congratulations on getting the VROC rolled up. Okay, so dividend breakeven, can we -- the billion-dollar number, very, very impressive, obviously. But what does that do to your portfolio breakeven on a pre- and post-dividend basis, sustaining capital, if I could take that as my one question, please?

謝謝。天啊，每股股息增長，瑞安。看看你今天的股價。恭喜您捲起 VROC。好吧，股息盈虧平衡，我們可以——十億美元的數字，顯然非常非常令人印象深刻。但這對您的投資組合在股息前和股息後的盈虧平衡以及維持資本方面有何影響，如果我可以將此作為我的一個問題，請問？

Good morning, Doug. Andy here. Maybe I'll take you back to sort of what we said back in our AIM presentation and build it from there. So in AIM, we said the long-term average free cash flow breakeven, excluding the dividends, was in the mid-30s. Now obviously, that's a little higher in the early years as we invest in Willow.

早安，道格。安迪在這裡。也許我會帶您回顧我們在 AIM 演示中所說的內容，並從那裡建立它。因此，在 AIM 中，我們稱長期平均自由現金流損益平衡點（不包括股息）在 30 多歲左右。顯然，在我們投資 Willow 的早期，這個數字要高一些。

Now with the Marathon transaction, plus the increased synergies we've announced today, that's going to further lower the number by a couple of dollars, so to the low 30s. And then, of course, you need to add the dividend on top of that, and that's about $10. So having such a low free cash flow break-even is really one of the key reasons why we're able to increase the ordinary dividend by 34%. And very importantly, that's how we can continue our commitment to the S&P 500 top quartile growth. So hopefully that impacts, Doug, the strength that we have there.

現在，隨著 Marathon 交易的開展，加上我們今天宣布的協同效應的增強，這一數字將進一步降低幾美元，降至 30 美元以上。當然，你還需要加上股息，大約是 10 美元。因此，如此低的自由現金流損益平衡確實是我們能夠將普通股利增加 34% 的關鍵原因之一。非常重要的是，這就是我們如何繼續致力於實現標準普爾 500 指數前四分之一的成長。道格，希望這能影響我們的實力。

And hopefully, you'll enjoy the 34% raise to the ordinary dividend, Doug.

道格，希望您能享受普通股息 34% 的成長。

Steve Richardson, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫理查森，Evercore ISI。

Great, thanks. Appreciate the comments on the 2025 CapEx. I was wondering if we could maybe dig in a little bit more. Ryan, we've got an external environment. Gas looks like it's perpetually in contango, and oil, the opposite structure. And you've also got some long-cycle CapEx kind of levers you could pull. Could you maybe appreciate the comments about the $13 billion and below that and everything that was just said about Marathon? But maybe you could just talk a little bit about the other pieces of the portfolio and how you're thinking about cap allocation in '25?

太好了，謝謝。感謝 2025 年資本支出的評論。我想知道我們是否可以再深入一點。瑞安，我們有一個外在環境。天然氣看起來永遠處於期貨溢價狀態，而石油則是相反的結構。而且您還擁有一些可以拉動的長週期資本支出類型的槓桿。您能否欣賞有關 130 億美元及以下的評論以及剛才有關馬拉鬆的所有內容？但也許你可以簡單談談投資組合的其他部分，以及你如何考慮 25 年的上限分配？

Yes, I can let Andy provide a few more details. Certainly, as we go through the course of the year, we're looking at it. We've got some spend continuing and ramping up a little bit at Willow, but we've got some other pieces that are coming down in the portfolio and just wanted to make sure that people understood the below $13 billion guide. We're going to work through the details of that and come out late this year, early next year with our actual capital number. But we're feeling pretty good where things stand today, and there's some moving pieces in the portfolio that Andy can describe a bit further.

是的，我可以讓安迪提供更多細節。當然，當我們回顧這一年的過程時，我們正在審視它。我們在 Willow 上繼續進行了一些支出，並略有增加，但我們的投資組合中還有其他一些項目，只是想確保人們理解下面的 130 億美元指南。我們將研究細節，並在今年年底、明年初公佈我們的實際資本數字。但我們對今天的情況感覺非常好，安迪可以進一步描述投資組合中的一些令人感動的部分。

Sure. Thanks, Ryan. Yes, as Ryan said, we're saying our expectation is less than $13 billion in '25. And just to put that in context, that compares to $13.5 billion for the combined ConocoPhillips and Marathon guidance for '24. And the primary drive to that reduction is really what I just covered in the Marathon synergies comment across the Lower 48.

當然。謝謝，瑞安。是的，正如 Ryan 所說，我們的預期是 25 年不到 130 億美元。相比之下，康菲石油公司和馬拉松公司 24 年的綜合指引為 135 億美元。實現這種減少的主要驅動力確實是我剛剛在 48 州馬拉松協同效應評論中提到的。

It's also important to say with that lower CapEx number that we actually can continue to have growth in the low single digits. And that's going to be fairly balanced across the Lower 48 and A&I. Now as Ryan mentioned, with our major projects of Willow, Port Arthur LNG, and the [Qatar] expansion projects, we still have a few moving parts to work through.

同樣重要的是，隨著資本支出數字的降低，我們實際上可以繼續保持低個位數的成長。下 48 州和 A&I 的情況將相當平衡。現在，正如瑞安所提到的，隨著我們的 Willow、亞瑟港液化天然氣和[卡達]擴建項目的主要項目，我們仍然有一些活動部分需要解決。

But we do expect Port Arthur capital spend to come down, as we previously communicated, will be in the project financing stage. As we said on the second-quarter call, we expect 2025 to be the biggest construction year for Willow. But that's all factored into when we say the less than $13 billion. And as we sort of get all those pieces nailed down, we'll be in a position to give our guidance sort of early next year as we do in the February timeframe.

但我們確實預期亞瑟港資本支出將下降，正如我們之前所傳達的那樣，將在專案融資階段進行。正如我們在第二季電話會議上所說，我們預計 2025 年將是 Willow 最大的建設年。但當我們說不到 130 億美元時，這一切都已考慮在內。當我們把所有這些事情都敲定後，我們將能夠在明年初給予我們的指導，就像我們在二月份的時間範圍內所做的那樣。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

德文·麥克德莫特，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So I wanted to build on some of the comments so far on 2025 but shift over to shareholder returns. I think at the time of the Marathon transaction, you talked about an over $11 billion target, and commodity prices have been very volatile since then. But you're also messaging a more capital-efficient program and better synergies as per the prior few questions. I was wondering if you could kind of put this all together and how you're thinking about pro forma shareholder returns once the transaction closes in some of the moving pieces around that number.

嘿，早安。感謝您提出我的問題。因此，我想以迄今為止關於 2025 年的一些評論為基礎，但轉向股東回報。我認為在馬拉松交易時，您談到了超過 110 億美元的目標，從那時起大宗商品價格一直非常波動。但根據前面的幾個問題，您也傳達了一個更資本效率更高的計劃和更好的協同效應。我想知道您是否可以將所有這些放在一起，以及一旦交易結束後您如何考慮圍繞該數字的一些動態部分的預期股東回報。

Yes, Devin, there's a lot of moving pieces as you might imagine coming through that. I'll probably start the answer by just reflecting a little bit about how we've done in 2024. So I think it informs kind of how we think about this and how we might approach 2025. I think it's a little bit early to give an indication of what 2025 is because some of the pieces of moving parts that Steve just addressed, we got again backwardation in the oil curve, contango in the gas curve, and a lot of volatility happening in the commodity price.

是的，德文，正如你想像的那樣，其中有很多令人感動的部分。我可能會先回顧一下我們在 2024 年的表現。 ，因為史蒂夫剛剛提到的一些活動部分，我們再次看到石油曲線的現貨溢價、天然氣曲線的正價差以及大宗商品價格的大幅波動。

So as we get through the course of the year and into next year, we'll all be kind of trying to assess what our CFO is. But if you look at our past history, six, seven years now, we've provided about 45% of our CFOs going back to the shareholder in form of distributions through both the dividend channel and share buybacks. So we'll certainly plan to continue to offer our shareholders a pretty compelling value proposition for the company.

因此，當我們度過這一年並進入明年時，我們都會嘗試評估我們的財務長是什麼。但如果你看看我們過去的歷史，六、七年了，我們已經將大約 45% 的 CFO 透過股息管道和股票回購以分配的形式返還給股東。因此，我們肯定會計劃繼續為我們的股東提供非常有吸引力的公司價值主張。

But you look at -- as we got into 2024, early in 2024, we were thinking arguably an $80 kind of price deck. It's been softer than that. But look, we paid off some debt. We've stuck to our $9 billion distribution target. We had a little bit of disposition monies come in. We paid off some debt this year. We got a strong balance sheet. We've got cash on the balance sheet. And look, we're made for the kind of volatility that we're seeing in the market today.

但你看，當我們進入 2024 年、2024 年初時，我們可能正在考慮 80 美元的價格。它比那更柔軟。但是看，我們還清了一些債務。我們一直堅持 90 億美元的分配目標。我們收到了一些處置資金。我們擁有強勁的資產負債表。我們的資產負債表上有現金。看，我們是為今天市場上看到的這種波動而生的。

So those are the pieces that we're going to take into consideration as we go into 2025. We've got a lot of levers. We've got a lot of ways to think about the business. We've got the synergy. And look, the operations are running really well, both in the international space under Kirk's leadership and the Lower 48 under Nick's leadership. So that's resulted in the extra production that we're getting out of the year and the efficiency that we're driving through the system.

因此，這些都是我們在進入 2025 年時要考慮的部分。我們有很多方法來思考業務。我們有協同作用。瞧，無論是在 Kirk 的領導下的國際領域，還是在 Nick 的領導下，Lower 48 地區的業務都運作得非常好。因此，這導致了我們今年的額外產量以及我們透過系統提高的效率。

So we're going to put all those levers, all those pieces and parts together. When we get to the end of the year, take an assessment of the commodity price market, what we think the market will give us in 2025, and come up with a distribution target for next year post the marathon close. So we've got a lot of moving pieces in it, but the shareholders should expect to get a significant portion of our cash flow coming back off the top and probably something that exceeds our floor of 30% that we talk about. It's going to be something probably significantly higher than that.

所以我們要把所有這些槓桿、所有這些零件放在一起。到了年底，我們將對大宗商品價格市場進行評估，我們認為市場在 2025 年會為我們帶來什麼，並在馬拉松結束後提出明年的分配目標。因此，我們有很多動人的部分，但股東應該期望我們的現金流的很大一部分會從頂部回來，而且可能會超過我們所說的 30% 的下限。它可能會比這個高得多。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

阿倫‧賈亞拉姆，摩根大通。

Yes, good morning, good afternoon. I wanted to get your thoughts on just capital allocation to the Marathon properties. And I know you're probably thinking about capital allocation to the Lower 48 as a whole, but I wanted to get maybe some insights on just the Marathon properties. Because if we look at their activity trends, they ran about 11 to 12 rigs on their properties in the first half, and they've downshifted to five or six in the back half. So how do you plan to manage those properties on a go-forward basis?

是的，早上好，下午好。我想了解您對馬拉鬆地產資本配置的想法。我知道您可能正在考慮將資本分配給整個 48 州，但我想了解一些有關馬拉松房地產的見解。因為如果我們觀察他們的活動趨勢，上半年他們在自己的地產上運行了大約 11 到 12 台鑽機，而下半年他們已經減少到 5 到 6 台。那麼，您打算如何在未來的基礎上管理這些資產呢？

Yes, I can let Andy jump in, Arun, but that was one of the -- a bit of the surprises that we saw when we got into the data room. And it's really one of the attractive features that we saw with the Marathon properties, some good low-cost supply resources that compete in the portfolio. And look, with the scale that we have in our company and combining with Marathon, we can run these assets differently.

是的，我可以讓安迪插話，阿倫，但這是我們進入數據室時看到的一些驚喜之一。這確實是我們在馬拉鬆地產中看到的有吸引力的特徵之一，一些良好的低成本供應資源在投資組合中具有競爭力。看，憑藉我們公司的規模以及與 Marathon 的結合，我們可以以不同的方式經營這些資產。

And I'll tell you, our Lower 48 team's chomping at the bit to get a hold of these assets because we won't have an execution plan that looks like what you just described, where you ramp up early in the year and you back off later in the year. With the scale that we bring to the combination, we found that running at a consistent pace is much better than trying to ramp up and ramp down, which you have to do when you either don't have scale or the capacity to do those things. And we're just going to run the assets differently. And I can let Nick provide a little bit more detail on the competitiveness within the portfolio.

我會告訴你，我們的 Lower 48 團隊正急切地想要獲得這些資產，因為我們不會有一個像你剛才描述的那樣的執行計劃，你在今年年初開始加速，然後又回來了今年晚些時候關閉。透過我們為組合帶來的規模，我們發現以一致的配速跑步比嘗試加速和減速要好得多，當你沒有規模或沒有能力做這些事情時，你必須這樣做。我們只是將以不同的方式經營資產。我可以讓尼克提供更多有關投資組合內競爭力的細節。

Yes, Arun, just kind of building on what Ryan just mentioned, we've looked at running level loaded and steady state since mid-2022. Clearly, we have shown you that through that approach that we've improved operating efficiencies on the drilling side as well as the frac side. And so as Ryan mentioned, we're going to apply that methodology and that strategy on the Marathon acreage. We're actually really excited to bring that in.

是的，Arun，只是在 Ryan 剛才提到的基礎上，我們自 2022 年中期以來一直在研究運行水平加載和穩定狀態。顯然，我們已經向您展示，透過這種方法，我們提高了鑽井和壓裂方面的營運效率。正如瑞安所提到的，我們將在馬拉松場地上應用這種方法和策略。我們真的很高興能把它引入。

As you've seen before, traditionally, they have been really kind of heavy on the front end -- the first half with frac and drilling activity. And then they level off, as Ryan mentioned, on the second half. So we're going to run it steady state, level loaded. We've seen even this year, to kind of give you a proof point, we're delivering with flat activity 10% more activity than 2023. So that means more feet per day. It means more wells. And for the folks on the phone, you're clearly seeing that in the bottom-line production performance for Lower 48.

正如您之前所看到的，傳統上，他們的前端工作確實很重——上半年有壓裂和鑽井活動。然後，正如瑞安所提到的，他們在下半場趨於平穩。所以我們將在穩定狀態、水平負載下運行它。甚至今年我們也看到，為了向您提供證據，我們在固定活動的情況下提供的活動量比 2023 年多 10%。這意味著更多的井。對於打電話的人來說，您可以在 Lower 48 的底線生產性能中清楚地看到這一點。

The Marathon assets, as we talked about in the acquisition case, very competitive in cost of supply across all the basins. We've got 2,000 wells. The bulk of that's in Eagle Ford. We know those assets well and look forward to capture it. So overall, we'll see activity rationalization on the rig and frac front. As Andy mentioned, we'll go through and really determine the optimum plateau, look at incremental cost of supply to run these assets going forward and still get modest production growth.

正如我們在收購案例中談到的，馬拉松資產在所有流域的供應成本方面都非常具有競爭力。我們有 2,000 口井。其中大部分位於伊格爾福特。我們非常了解這些資產並期待捕獲它們。總的來說，我們將看到鑽孔機和壓裂方面的活動合理化。正如安迪所提到的，我們將仔細研究並真正確定最佳平台，研究未來運行這些資產的增量供應成本，並仍獲得適度的產量成長。

Lloyd Byrne, Jefferies.

勞埃德伯恩，傑弗里斯。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thank you for all that. Can you guys just comment a little bit on the differentials that you're seeing in gas, maybe Waha what you expect from Matterhorn, and then take that one step further and any additional regas progress or targets that you guys have going forward internationally?

嘿，早上好，夥計們。謝謝你所做的一切。你們能否對你們在天然氣方面看到的差異發表一點評論，也許瓦哈你們對馬特宏峰的期望，然後再更進一步，以及你們在國際上前進的任何額外的重新加氣進展或目標？

Hi, Lloyd, Andy. Yes, I'll talk about where we are with that. So as you saw Henry Hub prices did improve in Q3. However, as expected, Lower 48 gas realizations can continue to be depressed as a result of the Permian pipeline constraints. So our Lower 48 gas realization as a percentage of Henry Hub dropped from 17% in Q2 to 8% in Q3. As I said, this is primarily driven by the Permian Waha pricing, which declined to negative $0.25 in MMBTu.

嗨，勞埃德，安迪。是的，我會談談我們在這方面的進展。正如您所看到的，亨利中心的價格在第三季度確實有所改善。然而，正如預期的那樣，由於二疊紀管道的限制，Lower 48 州的天然氣產量可能會繼續下降。因此，我們的 Lower 48 天然氣實現量佔 Henry Hub 的百分比從第二季的 17% 下降到第三季的 8%。正如我所說，這主要是由二疊紀 Waha 定價推動的，該定價跌至 MMBTu 負 0.25 美元。

Now we have seen some improvement in October with the ramp-up of Matterhorn. However, this has been somewhat offset by some pipeline maintenance elsewhere in the Permian. It's difficult to forecast exactly how the fourth quarter is going to play out. But the forward curve is suggesting that we should see some improvement.

現在，隨著馬特宏峰的增加，我們在 10 月看到了一些改善。然而，二疊紀其他地區的一些管道維護在一定程度上抵消了這種影響。很難準確預測第四季的情況。但遠期曲線表明我們應該看到一些改善。

And then specifically to your comment or your question on Matterhorn, we expect Matterhorn to be at about 2 BCF a day in November. And then with compression, that should increase capacity to 2.5 BCF later in 2025. I think the second part of your question was more on the LNG side and the progress we've been making there.

然後具體針對您對馬特宏峰的評論或問題，我們預計 11 月馬特宏峰每天的流量約為 2 BCF。然後透過壓縮，到 2025 年晚些時候，容量應該會增加到 2.5 BCF。

Nothing specifically new to announce on the LNG side in terms of new regas, but the one thing that we have mentioned is there has been some deals that we've done in Europe. We executed three agreements during the third quarter to support the expected increase of gas that we're going to have into Europe from LNG. And in aggregate, those three agreements represent about 1.8 MTPA of capacity. So these new agreements will give us then the ability to place volumes more efficiently into multiple markets in Europe. So that gives you an update of where we are and the progress we've made this quarter.

在液化天然氣方面，在新的再氣化方面沒有什麼特別的新消息要宣布，但我們提到的一件事是我們在歐洲達成了一些交易。我們在第三季簽署了三項協議，以支持我們將從液化天然氣輸送到歐洲的天然氣的預期成長。總的來說，這三項協議代表了約 1.8 MTPA 的產能。因此，這些新協議將使我們能夠更有效地將產量投入歐洲的多個市場。這樣您就可以了解我們本季的最新情況以及所取得的進展。

Betty Xu, Barclays.

徐貝蒂，巴克萊銀行。

Hello. Thank you for taking my question. I want to ask about asset sales. How do you think about the use of proceeds? There was a headline yesterday about sale of non-core Permian assets, so wondering about that. But perhaps more broadly, as you look at the optimization of the portfolio today, what are the areas where you think there could be more value for others versus where they sit internally?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想問一下資產出售的問題。您如何看待募集資金的使用？昨天有一個關於出售非核心二疊紀資產的頭條新聞，所以對此感到好奇。但也許更廣泛地說，當您審視當今投資組合的最佳化時，您認為哪些領域可以為其他人帶來比他們內部更有價值的領域？

Good morning, Betty. As you know, we've been actively high grading our portfolio over the last several years, and the Marathon transaction provides us an opportunity to continue that process. As you say, we've announced a target around $2 billion of non-core asset dispositions over the next several years, and we're very confident of achieving that. Now we're not going to comment on the specifics of where they are, our A&D activity in advance due to the commercial sensitivity, but activities are well underway on multiple disposition candidates at this stage.

早安，貝蒂。如你所知，過去幾年我們一直在積極對我們的投資組合進行高評級，馬拉松交易為我們提供了繼續這一過程的機會。正如你所說，我們已經宣布了未來幾年非核心資產處置約 20 億美元的目標，我們非常有信心實現這一目標。現在，由於商業敏感性，我們不會提前評論它們的位置、我們的 A&D 活動的具體情況，但現階段針對多個處置候選者的活動正在順利進行。

Bob Brackett, Bernstein.

鮑勃·布拉克特，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning. We've been hearing a lot of questions around this idea of a wave of global LNG hitting the shores in '25 or '26 or '27. It's easy to put an LNG project into a spreadsheet, perhaps harder to bring it online. Any thoughts around -- should we expect a surge of liquefaction capacity? Obviously, you've got a front row seat to that.

早安.我們聽到了很多關於「25 年、26 年或 27 年全球液化天然氣浪潮」這一想法的問題。將液化天然氣項目放入電子表格中很容易，但將其放到網上可能更難。有什麼想法嗎——我們是否應該期待液化能力的激增？顯然，你有一個前排座位。

Yes, Bob, I think we've all been kind of looking at it. You're right. The spreadsheet presumes a lot of FIDs get taken, and it's pretty tough to take FIDs in the space, and things kind of shift to the right. But look, if there's a little bit of a supply overhang coming later this decade coming in the '27, '28 timeframe, we can see some of that if these projects progress as designed. We've already seen some that are even in construction today that are moving to the right, let alone whether or not they're going to take FID.

是的，鮑勃，我想我們都在關注這個問題。你說得對。電子表格假設有很多 FID 被採取，而在該領域採取 FID 非常困難，而且事情會向右移動。但是看，如果在 27 年、28 年的時間範圍內出現一點供應過剩，如果這些項目按設計進行的話，我們可以看到其中的一些。我們已經看到一些正在建設中的項目正在向右移動，更不用說它們是否會接受最終投資決定了。

So that's going to be something that continues to be pretty volatile in the marketplace. But yes, we would expect a little bit of extra supply coming on later this decade, but we're making these investments for 20, 30, 40 years. and we're pretty bullish on where the LNG demand growth is going over the next decade and beyond. And that's what we're focused on is the opportunity to get access to those premium gas markets in Europe and in Asia.

因此，這將是市場上繼續相當不穩定的事情。但是，是的，我們預計本十年晚些時候會出現一些額外的供應，但我們的這些投資將持續 20 年、30 年、40 年。我們非常看好未來十年及以後液化天然氣需求的成長趨勢。我們關注的是進入歐洲和亞洲優質天然氣市場的機會。

And to do that, you have to be in the full value chain. You have to be in the regas side. You have to be in ships to move it around. And you have to be in the liquefaction, shipping, and the regas side as well. And Andy just talked about some of what we're doing to expand on the marketing end of it and linking all that together.

為此，您必須處於完整的價值鏈中。你必須站在重新加油的一邊。你必須在船上才能移動它。您還必須參與液化、運輸和再氣化方面。安迪剛剛談到了我們正在做的一些事情，以擴大行銷端並將所有這些聯繫在一起。

So we feel it's the right move for the company, right thing long term to do for the company. But there will be periods of time when it's oversupplied, just like there will be period of times when it's undersupplied and the price will spike. And that's what we've seen over the last 30, 40 years in this business, and we expect that will continue over the next 30, 40 years.

因此，我們認為這對公司來說是正確的舉措，對公司來說是長期正確的事情。但也會有一段時間供應過剩，就像有一段時間供應不足，價格就會飆升一樣。這就是我們在過去 30、40 年在這個行業所看到的情況，我們預計這種情況將在未來 30、40 年繼續下去。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Thanks. Can you talk about how you think about the supply-demand balance for crude over the next couple of years? I know you guys always have a view on this. How much, if at all, does this factor into your outlook for activity levels and your willingness to grow production going forward?

謝謝。能談談您對未來幾年原油供需平衡的看法嗎？我知道你們對此總是有自己的看法。如果有的話，這對您對活動水平的展望以及您未來增加產量的意願有多大影響？

Yes, Ryan, I think we'll -- as we do every year at the end of the year, we'll do our bottoms-up assessment of where we think supply and demand is. Look, we -- as we look out into 2024, coming into the year, we were thinking more like 1.2 million, 1.3 million barrels a day of demand growth. It looks like with primarily China's slowdown and some of the other places around the world, that demand growth is going to be closer to around 1 million barrels a day, so a bit softer than what we have said.

是的，瑞安，我想我們會——就像我們每年年底所做的那樣，我們將對我們認為的供需狀況進行自下而上的評估。看，當我們展望 2024 年時，進入這一年，我們更多地考慮的是每天 120 萬桶、130 萬桶的需求增長。看起來主要是由於中國和世界其他一些地方的經濟放緩，需求成長將接近每天 100 萬桶左右，因此比我們所說的要溫和一些。

There's still spare capacity sitting within the OPEC+ group, and anybody's bet whether or not they decide to continue to delay pulling any excess supply back into the market, we'll do that assessment. But look, I think we're pretty constructive in the market going forward over the next few years, constructive being above what we would call an equilibrium mid-cycle price and still be probably above that, so pretty constructive in terms of the market going forward.

OPEC+集團內部仍有閒置產能，任何人都可以打賭，無論他們是否決定繼續推遲將過剩供應拉回市場，我們都會進行評估。但是看，我認為我們對未來幾年市場的發展非常有建設性，建設性高於我們所說的均衡中期價格，而且仍然可能高於這個水平，因此就市場發展而言非常有建設性向前。

But look, we'll make our assessments, see where our cash flows are at. We know where our capital program is going to go be, and we've got lots of levers inside the company to make sure that we're competitive on our distributions back to our shareholder, which we've demonstrated over the last six to seven years. And you can judge us by the past, and that's how we think about the business. We're going to be maximizing returns on our investment. We're going to be investing in the company for some growth, in the long-term growth and development of the company.

但是看，我們將進行評估，看看我們的現金流在哪裡。我們知道我們的資本計劃將走向何方，而且我們在公司內部擁有大量槓桿，以確保我們在回饋股東的分配方面具有競爭力，這一點我們在過去六到七年中已經證明了這一點年。你可以根據過去來判斷我們，這就是我們對業務的看法。我們將最大限度地提高投資回報。我們將對公司進行投資，以實現公司的成長、長期成長和發展。

I recognize we're spending some money on some pre-productive capital, but we're doing that for the long-term health of the company, thinking about the next 10 years and beyond. These are really good projects that compete on a cost-supply basis and that we want to make investments in for the long-term health of the company. So we factor all that together, but we've got a lot of flexibility. We're built for the volatility that we see in the market with our balance sheet, cash, and the other things that we can do as a company.

我承認我們在一些生產前資本上花了一些錢，但我們這樣做是為了公司的長期健康發展，考慮未來 10 年及以後的發展。這些都是非常好的項目，在成本供應的基礎上競爭，我們希望為了公司的長期健康而進行投資。因此，我們將所有這些因素放在一起考慮，但我們有很大的靈活性。我們的資產負債表、現金以及我們作為一家公司可以做的其他事情是為了應對市場的波動而建立的。

Roger Reed, Wells Fargo.

羅傑·里德，富國銀行。

Good morning. Maybe to follow up on the pre-productive capital and just ask you about Willow, you mentioned spending goes up in '25. Given the compressed time of the year for working there, what are some of the milestones you should be thinking about this drilling season and then what you would be setting up for in the winter of '25, '26?

早安.也許是為了跟進生產前資本並詢問您有關 Willow 的情況，您提到 25 年支出會增加。考慮到一年中在那裡工作的時間很短，您應該考慮這個鑽探季節的一些里程碑，然後您將在 25 年、26 年冬天做好哪些準備？

Good morning, Roger. This is Kirk. Yes, certainly, we would describe our third-quarter progress as really being on trend with prior quarters. Our project team really just continued to make some strong progress through Q3 and that's really across all fronts. Engineering, procurement, fabrication, all of those are on track.

早安，羅傑。這是柯克。是的，當然，我們會將第三季的進展描述為確實與前幾季的趨勢一致。我們的專案團隊在第三季確實繼續取得了一些強勁的進展，這確實是在各個方面。工程、採購、製造，所有這些都步入正軌。

And certainly, you heard from me in the last call that we were able to transition a bit earlier from fabrication of the operations center into fabricating the process modules and that ultimately enabled us to sealift those modules into Alaska, certainly not just on time but a little bit early, and that played out quite well for us.

當然，您在上次通話中聽到我說，我們能夠更早地從製造運營中心過渡到製造工藝模組，最終使我們能夠將這些模組海運到阿拉斯加，當然不僅是按時，而且是有點早，這對我們來說效果很好。

Most importantly, the team is really sharpening the pencil right now on preparing for our 2025 winter construction season, which is what you're alluding to. And we do recognize that the scope here next year is going to be larger than the past winter season that was really quite successful for us. In 2025, we'll resume those critical activities that, of course, you have to do from ice roads. And so that consists of gravel placement for roads and paths, we'll resume pipeline installations, and then we'll also start to begin placing camps out at Willow.

最重要的是，團隊現在正在磨刀霍霍，為 2025 年冬季施工季節做準備，這就是您所提到的。我們確實認識到，明年的範圍將比過去的冬季更大，這對我們來說確實非常成功。 2025 年，我們將恢復那些必須在冰路上進行的關鍵活動。因此，這包括道路和小徑的礫石鋪設，我們將恢復管道安裝，然後我們也將開始在威洛安置營地。

And then lastly, and very importantly, again, now that we have those operation center modules -- they're up on the north slope of Alaska. Once we have ice roads constructed, we'll begin moving those modules into the Willow development area. So again, the teams are hard at work. They're doing some great work in their planning and refining the logistics required for this next year, recognizing it's going to be a bigger winter season for us. It's a bit early for us to guide on capital for Willow. We'll be ready to say more once we're ready to guide on total company.

最後，也是非常重要的一點，現在我們有了這些營運中心模組——它們位於阿拉斯加的北坡。一旦我們建成冰路，我們將開始將這些模組移至 Willow 開發區。再說一次，團隊正在努力工作。他們在規劃和完善明年所需的物流方面做了一些出色的工作，並認識到這對我們來說將是一個更大的冬季。現在對 Willow 的資本進行指導還為時過早。一旦我們準備好指導整個公司，我們就準備好說更多。

Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

斯科特漢諾德，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

I think this one's for Bill. Last quarter, you guided us to a bit of a working capital draw on 3Q, and we saw a bit of a pretty big tailwind. Can you give us a little bit of color on what occurred there and what do you project for 4Q? And if you also could add into that any expectations for other outflows that would be, say, related to Marathon, like severance and other costs?

我想這個是給比爾的。上個季度，您引導我們在第三季度提取了一些營運資金，我們看到了一些相當大的推動力。您能給我們介紹一下那裡發生的事情以及您對第四季的計劃嗎？如果您還可以添加對與馬拉松相關的其他資金流出的預期，例如遣散費和其他費用？

Yes, sure. You're right. Last quarter, I indicated that we were expecting about $0.5 billion working capital headwind during the quarter. Well, as it turned out, we had two items. The first was the IRS provided a deferral opportunity that allowed us to push the second-quarter tax payments and remaining tax payments for the year out into 2025. And the second item was pretty normal. That's your normal movements on accounts receivable and accounts payable with falling prices. That's the explanation for the reversal on working capital expectations.

是的，當然。你說得對。上個季度，我表示我們預計本季營運資金將出現約 5 億美元的逆風。好吧，事實證明，我們有兩個項目。第一個是國稅局提供了一個延期機會，使我們能夠將第二季度的稅款支付和全年剩餘的稅款推遲到 2025 年。這是隨著價格下跌，應收帳款和應付帳款的正常變動。這就是營運資本預期逆轉的原因。

Now looking towards the fourth quarter, it is a bit difficult to forecast where we expect to be for the fourth quarter with the pending Marathon acquisition. As you know, there's NOLs and some other tax attributes that will come to us with the Marathon acquisition, and we'll be providing an update to that further after closing.

現在展望第四季度，由於即將進行的馬拉松收購，很難預測第四季度的情況。如您所知，隨著 Marathon 的收購，我們將獲得 NOL 和其他一些稅務屬性，我們將在交易完成後進一步提供更新。

Neal Dingmann, Truist.

尼爾‧丁曼，真理主義者。

Good morning. My question is on your strong third-quarter '24 wealth performance, specifically in the Lower 48. Ryan, I was just wondering, is there a particular area or maybe a key operational driver you'd point to for this upside, such -- I don't know, maybe an improved logistics, several fracs, or the like?

早安.我的問題是關於你們24年第三季強勁的財富表現，特別是在下48個國家。種上升趨勢，例如──我不知道，也許是改善後勤、進行幾次壓裂等？

Yes, I can let Nick chime in. It's just really good performance across the whole Lower 48 teams running on all eight cylinders. So Nick can provide a bit of detail on that.

是的，我可以讓 Nick 插話。尼克可以提供一些細節。

Yes, Neal, you're right. We had, obviously, a very strong core number of attributes for 3Q. We had strong base production come in from 2Q into 3Q, obviously, to build off of. And as I've already mentioned, we continue to focus in on those driving the operating efficiencies. So we've seen more feet per day, more stages per day. In fact, in 3Q, in the Delaware Basin, we had our best-ever feet per day for that entire quarter within the program.

是的，尼爾，你說得對。顯然，我們在第三季擁有非常強大的核心屬性。顯然，我們從第二季到第三季都有強大的基礎生產來建立。正如我已經提到的，我們繼續專注於那些提高營運效率的事情。所以我們每天看到更多的腳，每天更多的賽段。事實上，在第三季度，在特拉華盆地，我們在整個季度的計劃中每天都取得了最好的成績。

And that's the testament of using technologies like the Drilling Intelligence Group, where we can do 24/7 monitoring of wells. We can troubleshoot. We can optimize the forward plans, and then share learnings across all rigs. And so that lifts all boats there. And as I mentioned earlier, just to reiterate, we're at flat activity level compared to 2023. But for this year, we got greater than 10% more scope, and so same activity level.

這就是使用 Drilling Intelligence Group 等技術的證明，我們可以對油井進行 24/7 監控。我們可以排除故障。我們可以優化遠期計劃，然後在所有鑽孔機之間分享經驗教訓。這樣就提升了那裡的所有船隻。正如我之前提到的，重申一下，與 2023 年相比，我們的活動水平持平。

On a little more granularity, we had two production records in the assets. We had Permian as well as Eagle Ford. On the Eagle Ford front, we had a large turnaround. That went very successful. We're ahead of schedule and below budget, so we had less downtime, Neal, in that.

從更詳細的角度來看，我們的資產中有兩筆生產記錄。我們有二疊紀和伊格爾福特。在伊格爾福特戰線上，我們取得了巨大的轉變。那件事非常成功。我們提前完成了計劃並且低於預算，因此我們的停機時間減少了，尼爾。

And then as we typically and historically see with Eagle Ford, we get flush production as we start that asset back up coming out of maintenance. And so you do see flush production in 3Q bolstering that. And then we waited to start up a number of wells until post-turnaround in Eagle Ford. And so you're seeing some lumpiness in overall number of wells online there.

然後，正如我們通常和歷史上在伊格爾福特看到的那樣，當我們開始從維護中恢復資產時，我們就會獲得充足的生產。所以你確實看到第三季的大量生產支撐了這一點。然後，我們等待伊格爾福特的恢復後開始啟動一些油井。因此，您會發現在線油井總數有些參差不齊。

On the Permian side, really good production there. We got 8% year over year for the third quarter. If you look at it for the full year, it would be 6%. And great wells in Delaware and Midland Basin. We had a number of 3-mile laterals in Midland Basin. That is very strong performance in 3Q.

在二疊紀一側，那裡的產量非常好。第三季年增 8%。如果你看全年的話，那就是6%。還有特拉華州和米德蘭盆地的大井。我們在米德蘭盆地有許多 3 英里的支線。第三季的表現非常強勁。

In 3Q itself, just to remember, there's probably a high number of wells online, and that's going to create some lumpiness. And then if you look at kind of 4Q, it's going to be more rateable, like 1% quarter over quarter. And then total year will be 5% overall growth for Lower 48. As Ryan mentioned, great quarter. Just shout out to the teams. We're running extremely well.

請記住，在第三季本身，可能有大量線上井，這將產生一些塊狀。然後，如果你看一下第四季的情況，你會發現它的利率會更高，例如季度環比為 1%。然後，Lower 48 地區的全年整體成長率將達到 5%。只要向團隊大聲喊叫即可。我們運行得非常好。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

喬許·西爾弗斯坦，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, guys. You made some working interest acquisitions up in Alaska this quarter. Can you just talk about other opportunities like this that exist across your asset base? You've done it in Surmont and APLNG over the past few years. Just curious what else may be out there. Thanks.

謝謝，夥計們。本季您在阿拉斯加收購了一些工作權益。您能否談談您的資產基礎中存在的其他類似機會？過去幾年，您已經在 Surmont 和 APLNG 做到了這一點。只是好奇那裡可能還有什麼。謝謝。

Yes, Josh, we did. Look, we watch all this, and I can have Kirk describe what happened in Alaska. You quite never know when these things are going to come about. We have ROFRs or right of first refusal across a lot of our assets, and you never know when decisions made by partners to make a change -- and we take advantage of those when they make sense for the company. Kirk can describe what happened up in Alaska with a bit more detail.

是的，喬什，我們做到了。聽著，我們看著這一切，我可以請柯克描述阿拉斯加發生的事情。你永遠不知道這些事情什麼時候會發生。我們對許多資產都擁有 ROFR 或優先購買權，你永遠不知道合作夥伴何時會做出改變的決定，而當這些決定對公司有意義時，我們就會利用這些決定。柯克可以更詳細地描述阿拉斯加發生的事情。

Hi, Josh. This is Kirk. Certainly, many of you on the call might have seen that we released a statement directly out of our Alaska business that that we did exercise our preemptive rights to acquire Chevron's non-operated interest in both Caparica as well as Prudhoe for roughly $300 million. Chevron was preparing to sell to a private entity, and it's just as Ryan described. We have the right to take a look at proposed transactions of that nature before they close and take the option of choosing to preempt.

嗨，喬許。這是柯克。當然，參加電話會議的許多人可能已經看到，我們直接從阿拉斯加業務部門發布了一份聲明，表示我們確實行使了優先購買權，以大約3 億美元的價格收購了雪佛龍在卡帕里卡和普拉德霍的非經營權益。雪佛龍正準備出售給私人實體，正如瑞安所描述的那樣。我們有權在此類性質的擬議交易結束之前對其進行審查，並選擇先發製人。

What's of interest to us on this one was the transaction price actually implied a PDP-only valuation. And so naturally, it expects us to seize on this opportunity. We saw this as a great way to increase our ownership across the set of assets that we know very well. We have a legacy position there in Alaska, and we know the competitive cost of supply that exists for us on go-forward development plans.

我們對此感興趣的是交易價格實際上暗示了僅 PDP 的估值。因此，它自然希望我們抓住這個機會。我們認為這是增加我們對我們非常了解的資產組的所有權的好方法。我們在阿拉斯加擁有傳統地位，我們知道在未來的發展計劃中存在具有競爭力的供應成本。

And so when you think about a PDP-only valuation or transaction price, couple that up with the fact that we have our known operated development plans around Nuna and Coyote in the [Greater Park Area] specifically. You put all that together with the fact that Alaska has high margin volumes, nearly all oil, and we fetch a premium to Brent up there.

因此，當您考慮僅 PDP 的估值或交易價格時，請考慮到我們在 [大公園區] 的 Nuna 和 Coyote 周圍有已知的營運開發計劃這一事實。將所有這些與阿拉斯加的利潤率很高這一事實結合起來，幾乎所有石油，我們都比那裡的布蘭特原油獲得溢價。

So you couple all that together with a low cost of supply development and that provides a pretty compelling return opportunity on that additional interest we picked up. So as Ryan said, we don't know when these are going to come at us. But boy, if they're compelling, we're going to capitalize on the opportunity.

因此，您將所有這些與低成本的供應開發結合起來，這為我們獲得的額外利息提供了相當有吸引力的回報機會。正如瑞安所說，我們不知道這些什麼時候會降臨在我們身上。但是天啊，如果他們有說服力，我們就會利用這個機會。

We love ROFRs, Josh.

我們喜歡 ROFR，喬許。

Alastair Syme, Citi.

阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆，花旗銀行。

Thanks. I wanted to return to the issue of Lower 48 volumes. I mean, you're clearly outpacing the rest of the industry this year. I just wonder if you think the slowdown of the rest of the industry is surprising. To what extent do you think that takeaway issues are perhaps holding back growth in the rest of the industry, or is it just a natural maturity? I'm interested in your perspective.

謝謝。我想回到下 48 卷的問題。我的意思是，今年你們的表現明顯超過了產業的其他公司。我只是想知道您是否認為該行業其他行業的放緩令人驚訝。您認為外送問題在多大程度上可能阻礙了行業其他領域的成長，或者這只是一種自然的成熟？我對你的觀點感興趣。

Yes, I think, Alastair, operating in this stable environment where you can get into this efficient frontier with that relationship between rig count and frac spreads, we're there, and the scale and the scope of what we're doing allows us to get there.

是的，我認為，阿拉斯泰爾，在這個穩定的環境中運營，您可以通過鑽機數量和壓裂價差之間的關係進入這個有效的前沿，我們就在那裡，我們正在做的事情的規模和範圍使我們能夠到那裡。

I think other operators with less inventory or less quality inventory, or frankly, less balance sheet strength have to do these ramp-up, ramp-down kinds of things. And we're kind of seeing that a little bit, I think, as we go into the fourth quarter. We notice it in our OBO or operated by others piece of it, and we see it kind of playing out across the industry a little bit, which allows us to maybe differentiate ourselves a little bit. I don't know, Nick, if you have anything more to add to that.

我認為其他庫存較少或質量較差的運營商，或者坦率地說，資產負債表實力較差的運營商必須做這些增加、減少的事情。我認為，當我們進入第四季度時，我們會看到一點點。我們在我們的 OBO 中或由其他人運營的部分中註意到了這一點，並且我們看到它在整個行業中發揮了一點作用，這使我們能夠使自己稍微與眾不同。尼克，我不知道你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, nothing further to add. I mean, we've got a fairly large non-operated portfolio within Lower 48. We look at a lot of ballots. And as Ryan mentioned, when you kind of look at what's coming in the door for fourth quarter, they're slowing down. We typically have seen that in years past, kind of more seasonality as folks drop rig and frac activity and then ramp back up in Q1 of the next year. So very similar drop of activity. Thank you.

是的，沒有什麼好補充的了。我的意思是，我們在 Lower 48 地區擁有相當大的非營運投資組合。正如瑞安所提到的，當你看看第四季即將發生的事情時，你會發現他們正在放慢速度。我們通常會看到，在過去的幾年裡，隨著人們減少鑽孔機和壓裂活動，然後在明年第一季重新增加，這種情況更具季節性。非常相似的活動下降。謝謝。

Kalei Akamine, Bank of America.

卡雷‧阿卡明 (Kalei Akamine)，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for getting me on. This one is a little bit nuanced. Kind of thinking about APLNG, some vendors have the upstream piece declining from 2030. I suppose that means that you guys should be thinking about backfill today. So can you discuss the outlook for that asset, and any backfill plans, please?

嘿，早上好，夥計們。謝謝你讓我上來。這個有點微妙。想想 APLNG，一些供應商的上游部分從 2030 年開始就會下降。那麼您能否討論一下該資產的前景以及任何回填計劃？

Yes, you bet. Good morning. This is Kirk. First, I'll just start by acknowledging the performance this year coming out of the JV. Production, operations, and certainly distributions have been quite strong. The upstream production is supplying our LNG facility, both in long-term contracts, spot, and especially we're a large supplier of the domestic markets there.

是的，你敢打賭。早安.這是柯克。首先，我首先要對合資公司今年的表現表示認可。生產、經營，當然還有分銷都相當強勁。上游生產正在供應我們的液化天然氣設施，無論是長期合約還是現貨，尤其是我們是國內市場的大型供應商。

The decline is largely as per most of the coal bed methane gas fields that are out there. And so you can expect similar performance from us from the upstream operator and certainly from the JV and whole. And I'd come back to the fact that 70% of our APLNG production is sold under two long-term contracts, and those extend through the mid-2030s. And the supply forecast, the production expectations that we have coming out of that on-stream or that onshore gas field gives us a lot of confidence that we're going to be able to meet those contracts through mid-2030s.

這種下降很大程度上與大多數煤層氣田的情況相同。因此，您可以期待我們的上游營運商、當然還有合資企業和整個公司也能獲得類似的表現。我要回到一個事實，即我們 70% 的 APLNG 產量是根據兩份長期合約出售的，這些合約將持續到 2030 年代中期。供應預測、我們對在產氣田或陸上氣田的產量預期讓我們充滿信心，相信我們將能夠在 2030 年代中期履行這些合約。

And naturally, you start to begin to, as you say, see some decline a bit kind of late 2030s, 2040s. And so nationally, the JV is focused on opportunities for continued backfill of that facility. And so that's within the purview of the scope of the JV to be thinking about future opportunities. And we're happy to be a part of that just given the fact that we understand LNG is going to play a really important role for the energy pathway demand looking into the future, and it's certainly a growing opportunity for us inside our strategy.

當然，正如你所說，到 2030 年代末、2040 年代，你會開始看到一些衰退。因此，在全國範圍內，合資企業專注於繼續回填該設施的機會。因此，這屬於合資企業考慮未來機會的範圍。我們很高興能參與其中，因為我們知道液化天然氣將在未來的能源需求中發揮非常重要的作用，而這對我們的策略來說無疑是一個不斷增長的機會。

Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

查爾斯·米德，約翰遜·賴斯。

Good morning, Conoco team. I appreciate you guys running deep into the Q&A queue here. I want to pick up -- you guys made some comments about the Eagle Ford turnaround, but I wonder if you could talk more broadly about the big turnaround quarter you guys had, maybe starting with the one up in Surmont. And if you could add in color on whether better-than-expected results are one of the drivers with your strong 4Q guide.

早上好，康菲團隊。我感謝你們深入這裡的問答隊列。我想接一下——你們對伊格爾福特的扭虧為盈發表了一些評論，但我想知道你們是否可以更廣泛地談論你們所經歷的重大扭虧為盈的季度，也許從蘇爾蒙特的一個開始。如果您可以補充一下，好於預期的結果是否是您強大的 4Q 指南的驅動因素之一。

Good morning, Charles. This is Kirk. Certainly, as mentioned in our release and by Bill this morning in our opening comments here, we did in fact have a once-in-every-five-year full facility turnaround there in third quarter, and that went really quite well. During these large turnarounds, naturally, you expect us to perform the required both internal and regulatory-driven compliance activities around testing safety systems.

早上好，查爾斯。這是柯克。當然，正如我們在新聞稿中以及比爾今天早上在我們的開場評論中提到的那樣，我們實際上在第三季度確實實現了五年一次的全面設施週轉，而且進展非常順利。在這些大型週轉期間，您自然希望我們圍繞測試安全系統執行所需的內部和監管驅動的合規活動。

But we also tend to open up both tanks and vessels, go into those, open them up, clean them out, inspect them, and that went really quite well. In fact, we were able to transition a number of those tanks to being able to work on those during operations going forward.

但我們也傾向於打開儲罐和容器，進入其中，打開它們，清理它們，檢查它們，而且進展非常順利。事實上，我們已經能夠將其中一些坦克轉變為能夠在未來的行動中使用這些坦克。

So really positive outcomes on that turnaround up there in Canada. And now being on the other side of that turnaround, having it behind us, we are seeing full run rates now of Pad 267, and that just continues to come in really very strong. In fact, the ramp-up coming out of the turnaround was very strong, came online a bit faster than we originally predicted. And so, of course, always pleased to see that.

加拿大的轉變確實取得了正面的成果。現在，在這一轉變的另一邊，我們已經把它拋在了身後，我們現在看到 Pad 267 的滿載率，而且這種情況繼續非常強勁。事實上，扭虧為盈後的成長非常強勁，比我們最初預測的還要快。當然，我們總是很高興看到這一點。

And as you've heard from me before, we do, in fact, intend to begin adding new pads, even after Pad 267. That was the first pad to resume after the first two commissioning sequences of Surmont. And so now that we've restarted those sustaining and those development pad manufacturing program, you can expect we'll add a new pad about every 12 to 18 months.

正如您之前從我那裡聽到的，事實上，我們確實打算開始添加新的發射台，甚至在267 號發射台之後也是如此。 。現在我們已經重新啟動了那些維持和開發墊製造計劃，您可以預期我們將大約每 12 到 18 個月添加一個新墊。

I mean, that's a pretty fair average assumption going forward over the next 5 to 10 years. This next pad is 104, 104 West A, as we refer to it. It's smaller than 267, and we plan to start drilling here next year on that pad, and we're expecting first oil in 2026. So certainly, as we continue to progress the [SEL] on future plans, on future paths, I'll keep you all abreast of that.

我的意思是，這是未來 5 到 10 年相當公平的平均假設。下一個墊是我們所說的 104, 104 West A。它小於 267，我們計劃明年開始在該平台上鑽探，預計 2026 年將首次開採石油。 。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

Paul Cheng，豐業銀行。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Maybe this is for Ryan or Nick. You are already close to about 800,000 barrel per day in Permian. You have a lot of assets. But from the best capital allocation or an efficient use of capital, what kind of [petrol rate] we should assume for Permian in your operation? And when do you think you may be able to achieve it? And also along the line, if you can give us a little bit of the maybe insight how's the supply -- when the supply cost look like for 2025 versus 2024? Thank you.

嘿。早安，夥計們。也許這是給瑞安或尼克的。二疊紀盆地的日產量已接近 80 萬桶。你有很多資產。但是，從最佳的資本配置或資本的有效利用來看，我們應該在你們的營運中為二疊紀假設什麼樣的[汽油費率]？您認為什麼時候能夠實現這一目標？另外，如果您能為我們提供一些可能的見解，即 2025 年與 2024 年的供應成本相比，供應情況如何？謝謝。

Yes, Paul, this is Nick. On the plateau question, maybe just take the whole group back to just the inventory that we have in the Permian. As you know, we're top tier in inventory. If you take a look at what we currently are drilling at rig activity levels, we've got two decades, two decades of inventory in the Permian. So we can grow at modestly, as we talked about in the AIM, kind of that 4% to 5% for the 10 years.

是的，保羅，這是尼克。關於高原問題，也許只需將整個組帶回我們在二疊紀的庫存即可。如您所知，我們的庫存處於領先地位。如果你看看我們目前正在鑽探的鑽機活動水平，我們在二疊紀有二十、二十年的庫存。因此，正如我們在 AIM 中談到的那樣，我們可以在 10 年內以 4% 到 5% 的速度適度增長。

We don't plateau until into the second decade, so significant amount of opportunities there, and then we'll bring in the Marathon assets as well. That very competitive cost of supply, if I'm just looking at the Permian, the cost supply that we've been drilling in 2024 with really good results, as you can see in the 3Q, very similar in 2025 as well. Very robust, very durable out there.

我們直到第二個十年才會陷入停滯，那裡有大量的機會，然後我們也會引入馬拉松資產。如果我只看二疊紀盆地，供應成本非常有競爭力，我們在 2024 年鑽探的成本供應非常好，正如您在第三季度看到的那樣，2025 年也非常相似。非常堅固，非常耐用。

Yes, on the supply, the -- what we're seeing kind of mixed results in the supply chain and the categories of spend that you're talking about. We see a bit of drop-off in rigs. We see some efficiency and maybe drop-off in pressure pumping, sand. We see some increases largely maybe on the OpEx side, chemicals, fuel, labor. So it's kind of a mixed bag.

是的，在供應方面，我們在供應鏈和您所談論的支出類別中看到了混合結果。我們看到鑽機數量下降。我們看到壓力泵送、沙子的效率下降，甚至可能下降。我們看到一些成長主要集中在營運支出、化學品、燃料、勞動力方面。所以這是一個魚龍混雜的情況。

We're in the process right now, Paul, of putting all that together to try to come up with an inflation/deflation estimate as we go into 2025. But it feels somewhat similar year to 2024. But we're in the middle of doing all that front-end work right now. I don't know if you'd have any more to add to that, Nick?

保羅，我們現在正在將所有這些放在一起，試圖在進入 2025 年時做出通貨膨脹/通貨緊縮的估計。工作。我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的，尼克？

Yes -- no, I think, Paul, obviously, we continue to see deflation capture through 2024 across all major spend categories. Tubulars was the largest, as we've seen that up to a 30% reduction. We can see profit going down, pressure pumping going down in rig rates. Even this quarter, we're seeing some modest deflation capture on rig rates as well as pumping services going in there. I think that's going to level out to some degree in 2025. It just depends on kind of overall supply-demand of those services as we look forward based on what commodity prices are going to be out there.

是的——不，我認為，保羅，顯然，到 2024 年，我們將繼續看到所有主要支出類別都將陷入通貨緊縮。 Tubulars 是最大的，我們已經看到減少了 30%。我們可以看到利潤下降，鑽機費率下降。即使在本季度，我們也看到鑽機價格和抽油服務出現了一些溫和的通貨緊縮。我認為到 2025 年，這一情況將在某種程度上趨於平穩。

Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

凱文·麥克科迪，皮克林能源合作夥伴。

Hey, good morning. I appreciate all the details on the Lower 48 production growth. It's certainly differentiating. My question is on oil mix. Company oil mix fell a little bit quarter over quarter. Should we assume that was mainly driven by Surmont downtime? And what are your expectations for that oil mix in 4Q and going forward into next year?

嘿，早安。我很欣賞關於 Lower 48 產量成長的所有細節。這當然是有差別的。我的問題是關於油的混合。公司石油結構較上季略有下降。我們是否應該假設這主要是 Surmont 停機造成的？您對第四季和明年的石油結構有何期望？

Well, yes, this is Nick. I'll talk a little bit about oil mix for Lower 48. And if there's any comments on the Alaska International, I'll turn it over to Kirk. Yes, our oil mix has really been tracking around 52% to 53% for a number of quarters, if you've been tracking that. And third quarter is very consistent with the previous quarters. And so oil volumes grew around about 5% year over year.

嗯，是的，這是尼克。我將討論一下 Lower 48 的機油混合情況。是的，如果您一直在追蹤的話，我們的石油結構在幾個季度中確實一直在 52% 至 53% 左右。第三季與前幾季非常一致。因此，石油產量年增約 5%。

And as a reminder for the group, that really depends just due to the vast and deep and durable portfolio that we have in Lower 48. It depends on where we're drilling and bringing those new wells on related to oil mix. As you look forward into the few years, it's going to be, again, pretty consistent, 52%, 53% overall. We're very satisfied with how things are tracking. As a reminder, too, for the Lower 48 this year, we grew at 5% year over year.

提醒大家的是，這實際上取決於我們在 Lower 48 擁有的廣泛、深入和持久的投資組合。展望未來幾年，您會發現，整體來說，這一比例將非常穩定，分別為 52%、53%。我們對事情的追蹤方式非常滿意。同樣提醒一下，今年 48 州以下地區的成長率為 5%。

I'd just add. I think you answered the question for us in that there was nothing particularly unusual in the oil mix this quarter. We just had the large turnaround activity in an asset that's 100% oil.

我只想補充一下。我認為您回答了我們的問題，因為本季的石油結構沒有什麼特別不尋常的地方。我們剛剛對 100% 石油資產進行了大規模週轉活動。

Phillips Johnston, Capital One Securities.

菲利普斯約翰斯頓，第一資本證券。

Hey, thanks for the question. Just wanted to follow up on the earlier question about the Alaska transactions. Just wondering how much production is associated with those deals, and I also wanted to confirm that the impact isn't included in your fourth-quarter production guidance. Thanks.

嘿，謝謝你的提問。只是想跟進之前有關阿拉斯加交易的問題。只是想知道有多少產量與這些交易相關，而且我還想確認其影響未包含在您的第四季度生產指導中。謝謝。

Yes, good morning. This is Kirk. In fact, we expect there to be, on the margin, several thousand barrels a day associated with those transactions. And it's a good ask, certainly left that off, which is -- we're currently expecting those transactions to close in fourth quarter, albeit we haven't formally factored that into our guidance. So expect us to update that as we think about next year.

是的，早安。這是柯克。事實上，我們預計每天會有數千桶與這些交易相關。這是一個很好的問題，當然，我們目前預計這些交易將在第四季度完成，儘管我們尚未正式將其納入我們的指導中。因此，期待我們在考慮明年時更新這一點。

Leo Mariani, ROTH.

利奧·馬裡亞尼，羅斯。

Hi. Just a couple questions here just around the guidance here. So I wanted to get a sense if you guys could quantify what you're expecting in the fourth quarter in terms of production turnarounds as well as CapEx and as well as OpEx here.

你好。這裡只是圍繞這裡的指導提出幾個問題。因此，我想了解你們是否可以量化第四季度生產週轉以及資本支出和營運支出的預期。

Hi, this is Andy. So in terms of turnarounds, it's -- fourth quarter is a very small turnaround quarter for us. It's about 5,000 barrels a day, predominantly in Norway. I think we've given guidance for OpEx. OpEx guidance is unchanged for the year. I think one thing I would add to that is that we did say on the last call that the third quarter would be the high quarter due to the heavy turnaround schedule, and that's exactly how things played out.

嗨，這是安迪。因此，就週轉而言，第四季對我們來說是一個非常小的周轉季度。每天大約生產 5,000 桶，主要在挪威。我認為我們已經為營運支出提供了指導。今年的營運支出指引維持不變。我想我要補充的一件事是，我們在上次電話會議上確實說過，由於週轉計劃繁重，第三季度將是高季度，而事情正是如此。

It's also worth mentioning that we've beaten production this quarter by 27,000 barrels a day and upped the annual production by 10,000 barrels a day. And importantly, we have not increased the operating cost guidance as a result of that production increase. So we feel really good there.

另外值得一提的是，本季我們的產量每天增加了 27,000 桶，年產量每天增加了 10,000 桶。重要的是，我們並沒有因產量增加而提高營運成本指引。所以我們在那裡感覺很好。

And then the same thing with the CapEx for the fourth quarter. That's playing out really exactly as we said on the last call. Most of what we suggested on the call has come to fruition. There were kind of three things. We've covered most of these already, but we mentioned the Lower 48 non-operated activity typically tails off in the fourth quarter. That's exactly what we're seeing.

第四季的資本支出也是如此。這確實正如我們在上次電話會議中所說的那樣。我們在電話會議中建議的大部分內容已經實現。有三件事。我們已經介紹了其中的大部分內容，但我們提到 48 個州的非營運活動通常會在第四季度逐漸減少。這正是我們所看到的。

We mentioned that Port Arthur LNG, the CapEx there, would go down as we go into -- more into the project financing. That's exactly what we're seeing. And then as we talked about, we're seeing some deflation in the Lower 48. So that all factors into sort of the lower CapEx number in the fourth quarter. So I think that covers the production OpEx and CapEx and turnarounds. So I think all the drivers are there for you.

我們提到，隨著我們更多地進入專案融資，亞瑟港液化天然氣（那裡的資本支出）將會下降。這正是我們所看到的。然後，正如我們所討論的，我們在 48 個國家中看到了一些通貨緊縮。所以我認為這涵蓋了生產營運支出、資本支出和周轉。所以我認為所有的司機都適合你。

We have no further questions at this time. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。