康菲 (COP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the fourth quarter 2024 ConocoPhillips earnings conference call.

歡迎參加康菲石油公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today's call.

我叫利茲，今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。

(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Phil Gresh, Vice President, Investor Relations.

（操作員指示）我現在將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Phil Gresh。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始啦。

Thank you, Liz, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

謝謝你，Liz，歡迎大家參加我們 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Bill Bullock, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Andy O'Brien, Senior Vice President of Strategy, Commercial Sustainability and Technology; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48; and Kirk Johnson, Senior Vice President of Global Operations.

今天參加電話會議的有康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾位成員，包括董事長兼執行長 Ryan Lance；比爾‧布洛克 (Bill Bullock)，執行副總裁兼財務長；安迪‧歐布萊恩 (Andy O’Brien)，策略、商業永續性和技術資深副總裁；美國下 48 州執行副總裁尼克‧奧爾茲 (Nick Olds)；以及全球營運資深副總裁柯克·約翰遜（Kirk Johnson）。

I also wanted to formally welcome Guy Baber, the former Vice President of Investor Relations for Marathon Oil, who has joined the Investor Relations team here at ConocoPhillips.

我還想正式歡迎馬拉松石油公司前投資者關係副總裁 Guy Baber 加入康菲石油公司的投資者關係團隊。

Ryan and Bill will kick off the call with opening remarks.

瑞安和比爾將致開幕詞，開始本次電話會議。

After which, the team will be available for questions.

此後，團隊將回答您的問題。

For the Q&A, we'll be taking one question per caller.

對於問答環節，我們將為每位來電者回答一個問題。

A few quick reminders.

一些快速提醒。

First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials in a slide presentation, which you can find on the Investor Relations website.

首先，隨著今天的發布，我們還在幻燈片簡報中發布了補充財務資料，您可以在投資者關係網站上找到。

Second, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations.

第二，在本次電話會議中，我們將根據目前的預期做出前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's press release and in our periodic SEC filings.

由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中提到的因素，實際結果可能有所不同。

We'll be making some non-GAAP financial metric references.

我們將會提供一些非 GAAP 財務指標參考。

Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in the release and on our website.

您可以在本新聞稿中以及我們的網站上找到與最接近的相應 GAAP 指標的對帳表。

With that, let me turn it over to Ryan.

現在，讓我把話題交給 Mr. Ryan。

Thanks, Phil, and let me extend my welcome to everybody for joining our fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. 2024 was certainly another strong year for ConocoPhillips.

謝謝，菲爾，我歡迎大家參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。 2024 年對康菲石油公司來說無疑是另一個強勁的一年。

We executed well operationally and on a stand-alone basis delivered 4% production growth year-over-year, which was above the high end of our full-year guidance range.

我們的營運表現良好，獨立生產年增 4%，高於我們全年指導範圍的高點。

We showed strong performance across the entire portfolio, delivering 5% growth in the Lower 48 and 3% growth in Alaska and International on the same basis.

我們的整個投資組合表現強勁，在美國本土 48 個州實現了 5% 的成長，在阿拉斯加和國際地區實現了 3% 的成長。

And we delivered a 123% preliminary organic reserve replacement ratio in 2024.

我們在 2024 年實現了 123% 的初步有機儲量替代率。

Our three-year average is now 131%.

我們的三年平均值現在是 131%。

We also enhanced the portfolio.

我們也增強了產品組合。

We closed the acquisition of Marathon in late November, which added high-quality, low cost of supply inventory to our portfolio.

我們於 11 月底完成了對 Marathon 的收購，這為我們的投資組合增添了高品質、低成本的供應庫存。

And we remain confident that we will deliver more than $1 billion of run rate synergies by the end of 2025, over half of which is included in our capital guidance.

我們仍然有信心，到 2025 年底，我們將實現超過 10 億美元的運行率協同效應，其中超過一半包含在我們的資本指導中。

In Alaska, we opportunistically exercised our preferential rights to acquire additional working interests at attractive valuations in Kuparuk River and Prudhoe Bay units.

在阿拉斯加，我們抓住機會，行使優先權，以優惠的估值收購庫帕魯克河和普拉德霍灣油田的額外工作權益。

We progressed our global LNG strategy through additional regasification and sales agreements into Europe and Asia.

我們透過在歐洲和亞洲簽署更多的再氣化和銷售協議，推進了我們的全球液化天然氣戰略。

And, as we announced this morning, we are making solid progress on our planned $2 billion of asset sales.

正如我們今天早上宣布的那樣，我們在計劃的 20 億美元資產出售方面正在取得穩步進展。

We have agreements in place to sell noncore Lower 48 assets for approximately $600 million before customary adjustments in the first half of 2025.

我們已達成協議，將在 2025 年上半年以約 6 億美元（未進行慣例調整）的價格出售美國本土 48 州的非核心資產。

We continue to deliver on our returns-focused value proposition.

我們將繼續實踐以回報為中心的價值主張。

We generated a trailing 12-month return on capital employed of 14%, or 15% on a cash-adjusted basis.

我們過去 12 個月的資本使用報酬率為 14%，或以現金調整後為 15%。

We returned $9.1 billion of capital to our shareholders, representing 45% of our CFO, consistent with our long-term track record and well above our 30% commitment.

我們向股東返還了 91 億美元的資本，占我們財務長的 45%，這與我們的長期業績記錄一致，遠高於我們 30% 的承諾。

Now looking ahead to 2025, we remain confident in the plan that we outlined in our third quarter call to deliver low single-digit production growth for $12.9 billion of CapEx.

展望 2025 年，我們仍然對第三季電話會議上概述的計劃充滿信心，即以 129 億美元的資本支出實現低個位數的生產增長。

In the Lower 48, on a proforma basis, we plan to reduce capital spending by over 15% year-over-year, while still delivering low single-digit production growth.

在美國本土 48 州，根據預測，我們計劃將資本支出年減 15% 以上，同時仍實現低個位數的生產成長。

This is primarily due to expected material synergy capture associated with the acquisition of Marathon and significant drilling and completion efficiency gains.

這主要歸因於收購 Marathon 所帶來的預期材料協同效應以及鑽井和完井效率的顯著提高。

We also expect to grow production in Alaska and Canada, and we are doing all of this while continuing to invest in differentiated high-return, longer-cycle projects.

我們也希望增加阿拉斯加和加拿大的產量，同時我們在繼續投資差異化、高回報、長週期專案的同時，也在做這一切。

Now on these projects, we are making steady progress across the board.

現在這些項目我們正在全面且穩定地推進。

We expect 2025 to be the peak year of our long-cycle spending at around $3 billion, followed by a steady stream of project start-ups from 2026 to 2029.

我們預計 2025 年將是我們長週期支出的高峰年，支出約為 30 億美元，隨後從 2026 年到 2029 年將有源源不斷的專案啟動。

Once these projects are all online, we expect $3.5 billion of incremental CFO from NFE, Port Arthur, NFS and Willow, all combined at $70 WTI, $10 TTF and $4 Henry Hub, and that leads to roughly $6 billion of incremental annual sustaining free cash flow relative to 2025.

一旦這些項目全部上線，我們預計 NFE、Port Arthur、NFS 和 Willow 將帶來 35 億美元的增量 CFO，合計 WTI 價格為 70 美元、TTF 價格為 10 美元、Henry Hub 價格為 4 美元，相對於 2025 年，這將帶來每年約 60 億美元的增量持續現金流。

Shifting to shareholder distributions, this morning, we announced a target to return $10 billion back to shareholders this year, assuming current commodity prices.

談到股東分配，今天上午，我們宣布了今年向股東返還 100 億美元的目標，假設大宗商品價格保持不變。

This consists of $4 billion of ordinary dividends and $6 billion in buybacks, positioning us to execute on our objective to retire the equivalent of the shares issued for the Marathon transaction within two to three years, even with lower WTI prices than at the time of the announcement.

這包括 40 億美元的普通股息和 60 億美元的回購，使我們能夠實現目標，即在兩到三年內回購相當於馬拉松交易發行的股票，即使 WTI 價格低於宣佈時的價格。

So in conclusion, once again, I'm proud of the accomplishments of the entire organization.

總而言之，我再次為整個組織的成就感到自豪。

Our portfolio is well positioned to generate competitive returns and cash flow for decades to come.

我們的投資組合能夠在未來幾十年產生有競爭力的回報和現金流。

Now let me turn the call over to Bill to cover our fourth-quarter performance and 2025 guidance in more detail.

現在，讓我將電話轉給比爾，以更詳細地介紹我們第四季的業績和 2025 年的指引。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

In the fourth quarter, we generated $1.98 per share in adjusted earnings.

第四季度，我們的調整後每股收益為 1.98 美元。

Now we had a number of special items in the quarter.

我們本季有許多特殊項目。

The two largest were related to the Marathon acquisition.

其中最大的兩個案件與馬拉松收購案有關。

First, we recorded over $400 million of transaction and integration-related expenses.

首先，我們記錄了超過4億美元的交易和整合相關費用。

Now this was mostly offset by over $400 million of tax benefits, resulting from utilization of certain foreign tax credits associated with the Marathon acquisition.

現在，這筆損失大部分被超過4億美元的稅收優惠所抵消，這些優惠是由於利用了與馬拉松收購相關的某些外國稅收抵免而產生的。

Both of these items were largely noncash in the quarter, and the one-time cash benefit will show up as a working capital tailwind in the first quarter of this year.

本季這兩個項目基本上都是非現金的，一次性現金收益將在今年第一季作為營運資金的順風出現。

And it is in addition to the NOLs associated with the Marathon acquisition that we expect to recognize over the next few years.

此外，我們預計未來幾年也將確認與 Marathon 收購相關的淨營運虧損 (NOL)。

The transaction-related costs will gradually flow through working capital during 2025 as we achieve our premised synergies.

隨著我們實現預期的綜效，交易相關成本將在 2025 年逐漸流入營運資本。

Shifting to fourth quarter operations, we produced 2,183,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

轉向第四季度的業務，我們每天生產 2,183,000 桶油當量。

This included one month of production from the acquired Marathon assets, which added 126,000 barrels per day to the quarter.

其中包括收購馬拉松資產一個月的產量，為本季增加了 126,000 桶/日的產量。

Excluding Marathon's production, we achieved 8% underlying growth year-over-year.

除馬拉鬆的產量外，我們實現了 8% 的年比基本成長。

This is above the high end of our guidance range.

這高於我們指導範圍的高端。

Now, inclusive of one month of Marathon, Lower 48 produced 1,308,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

現在，包括馬拉鬆一個月的時間，美國本土 48 個州的石油日產量為 1,308,000 桶當量。

And by basin, we produced 833,000 in the Permian, 296,000 in the Eagle Ford and 151,000 in the Bakken.

按盆地劃分，我們在二疊紀生產了 833,000 噸，在鷹福特生產了 296,000 噸，在巴肯生產了 151,000 噸。

Moving to cash flows, fourth-quarter CFO was over $5.4 billion, and this included over $250 million of APLNG distributions.

談到現金流，第四季的 CFO 超過 54 億美元，其中包括超過 2.5 億美元的 APLNG 分紅。

Operating working capital was a $1 billion headwind in the quarter, primarily due to normal changes in accounts receivable and accounts payable.

本季營運資本出現 10 億美元的逆風，主要由於應收帳款和應付帳款的正常變動。

Capital expenditures were $3.3 billion, which included approximately $400 million for spending related to acquisitions that was not premised in guidance.

資本支出為 33 億美元，其中包括指導中未提及的收購相關支出（約 4 億美元）。

We returned more than $2.8 billion to shareholders, including just under $2 billion in buybacks and $900 million in ordinary dividends in the quarter.

我們本季向股東返還了超過 28 億美元，其中包括近 20 億美元的回購和 9 億美元的普通股息。

We also completed a series of strategic debt transactions following the acquisition of Marathon.

收購 Marathon 之後，我們也完成了一系列策略性債務交易。

These transactions simplified our capital structure, extended the weighted average maturity of our portfolio, lowered our weighted average coupon rate and reduced near-term maturities.

這些交易簡化了我們的資本結構，延長了我們投資組合的加權平均期限，降低了我們的加權平均票面利率並減少了近期到期債務。

We ended the year with cash and short-term investments of $6.4 billion and had $1.1 billion in long-term liquid investments.

截至年底，我們的現金和短期投資為 64 億美元，長期流動投資為 11 億美元。

Turning to guidance.

轉向指導。

We forecast 2025 production to be in the range of 2.34 million to 2.38 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

我們預測 2025 年產量將在每天 234 萬至 238 萬桶油當量之間。

This takes into account 20,000 barrels per day of planned turnarounds.

這考慮到了每天 20,000 桶的計畫週轉量。

Turnarounds are expected to be highest in the second quarter with a triennial turnaround at Ekofisk at Norway, a turnaround at Qatar and maintenance in Australia.

預計第二季的檢修量最高，其中挪威 Ekofisk 的檢修量為三年一次，卡達的檢修量為一年一次，澳洲的檢修量為維護。

Then in the third quarter, we will have turnarounds in Alaska.

在第三季度，我們在阿拉斯加的情況將會好轉。

For the first quarter, we expect production to also be in a range of 2.34 million to 2.38 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

我們預計第一季的產量也將在每天 234 萬至 238 萬桶油當量之間。

This guidance reflects a 20,000 barrel per day impact on the full quarter from January weather events.

該預期反映了 1 月份天氣事件對整個季度每天 20,000 桶的影響。

We expect a minimal first quarter impact from turnarounds and that's similar to the fourth quarter.

我們預計，第一季的扭轉影響將很小，與第四季的情況類似。

For capital spending, our full year guidance is approximately $12.9 billion.

對於資本支出，我們全年預期約為 129 億美元。

On slide 8 of the presentation material, we provide a proforma bridge from 2024 to 2025 with some of the key year-over-year variables.

在簡報資料的第 8 張投影片中，我們提供了從 2024 年到 2025 年的預測橋樑，其中包括一些關鍵的同比變數。

In the Lower 48, we expect to reduce spending by approximately $1.4 billion.

在美國本土 48 州，我們預計將減少約 14 億美元的支出。

And for long-cycle projects, we expect to see a $400 million increase in spending to roughly $3 billion in 2025, inclusive of capitalized interest of about $400 million.

對於長週期項目，我們預計到 2025 年支出將增加 4 億美元，達到約 30 億美元，其中包括約 4 億美元的資本化利息。

Finally, in Alaska and international, we expect to see a $200 million increase in spending driven by our growth opportunities in Canada and Alaska.

最後，在阿拉斯加和國際上，我們預計支出將增加 2 億美元，這得益於加拿大和阿拉斯加的成長機會。

Shifting to cost guidance.

轉向成本指引。

We expect full year adjusted operating costs to be in the range of $10.9 billion to $11.1 billion.

我們預計全年調整後的營業成本將在 109 億美元至 111 億美元之間。

Full year cash exploration expenses are expected to be $300 million and full-year DD&A expense is expected to be in the range of $11.3 billion to $11.5 billion.

全年現金勘探費用預計為 3 億美元，全年 DD&A 費用預計在 113 億美元至 115 億美元之間。

Full-year adjusted corporate segment net loss guidance is approximately $1.1 billion.

全年調整後公司部門淨虧損預計約 11 億美元。

And we expect our effective corporate tax rate to be in the 36% to 37% range at strip pricing, excluding any onetime items, with an effective cash tax rate in the 35% to 36% range.

我們預計，以剝離定價計算，不包括一次性項目，有效公司稅率在 36% 至 37% 之間，有效現金稅率在 35% 至 36% 之間。

Finally, on cash flows, we expect full year APLNG distributions to be about $1 billion, with about $200 million in the first quarter.

最後，關於現金流，我們預計 APLNG 全年分配額約為 10 億美元，第一季約為 2 億美元。

So to wrap up, ConocoPhillips had a strong year in 2024.

總而言之，康菲石油公司在 2024 年表現強勁。

We executed well operationally.

我們的營運執行得很好。

We're continuing to deliver on our strategic initiatives across our deep, durable and diverse portfolio, and we remain highly competitive on our shareholder distributions.

我們將繼續在我們深度、持久和多樣化的投資組合中實施我們的策略舉措，並在股東分配方面保持高度競爭力。

That concludes our prepared remarks.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。

I'll turn it back over to the operator to start the Q&A.

我將把話題轉回給操作員，開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

(操作員指示) 摩根大通的阿倫·賈亞拉姆 (Arun Jayaram)。

Yeah.

是的。

Ryan, you outlined a 10% increase in cash return to $10 billion.

瑞安，你提出了現金回報增加 10% 至 100 億美元的目標。

I'm sure the company scrutinizes its approach to cash return in 2025 just given how many price volatility and obviously, the recent close of Marathon.

我相信，考慮到價格波動幅度，以及馬拉松賽最近結束，該公司會仔細審查其 2025 年的現金回報方法。

But I wanted to see if we could get some insights on what drove your ultimate decision in terms of 2025 to give a quantum of cash return?

但我想看看我們是否可以了解是什麼促使您最終決定在 2025 年提供一定數量的現金回報？

And how should we think about potential flex in cash return, either higher or lower given potential commodity price changes?

並且，考慮到潛在的商品價格變化，我們應該如何看待現金回報的潛在彈性，是更高還是更低？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Arun.

謝謝，阿倫。

I think when we set the new strategy for the company way back in 2016, certainly, delivering a lot of our – a significant amount of our cash back to the shareholder.

我認為，當我們在 2016 年為公司製定新策略時，肯定會將大量現金回饋給股東。

And I think that's something that's important to the company, important to demonstrate we can continue to do that.

我認為這對公司來說很重要，表明我們可以繼續這樣做。

And I think it's represented in what we kind of set as our target for 2025.

我認為這體現在我們設定的 2025 年目標。

I think as we looked at it, we obviously took a look at the forward curve and where things are developing in 2025, we take our own view.

我認為，當我們觀察它時，我們顯然會關注未來曲線以及 2025 年事態的發展，我們將有自己的看法。

We have a lot of commodity markers that drive our CFO as we go through the course of the year.

我們有很多商品標誌，這些標誌會在一年的時間內推動我們的財務長做出決定。

But I think despite the recent downdraft in the WTI here over the last month, we felt pretty comfortable at $10 billion.

但我認為，儘管上個月 WTI 價格有所下跌，但我們對 100 億美元的規模仍感到相當滿意。

And look, I remind people, we have a lot of torque to the upside on commodity prices and look at our past behavior over the number of years we've been sharing that with our shareholders.

我提醒大家，我們對大宗商品價格的上漲有著很大的推動力，看看我們多年來的行為，我們一直與股東分享這一點。

A reminder, if you look at the whole company, a good rule of thumb is about $400 million for every dollar of WTI movement.

提醒一下，如果放眼整個公司，一個好的經驗法則是，WTI 每波動一美元，就會產生約 4 億美元的收益。

So obviously, if we get $5 or $10 of uplift, that's pretty significant cash flow to the company, and we typically share that with our shareholders as well.

因此顯然，如果我們獲得 5 美元或 10 美元的增額，這對公司來說就是相當可觀的現金流，而且我們通常也會與股東分享這筆現金流。

On the down side, look, we've got a strong balance sheet.

從不好的一面來看，我們擁有強勁的資產負債表。

We ended the year with over, I think, $7.5 billion of cash and long-term investments.

我認為，到今年年底，我們的現金和長期投資已經超過 75 億美元。

So we've got a lot of flexibility there.

因此我們在這方面具有很大的靈活性。

And then as we announced in our prepared remarks, we're on track to dispose of about $2 billion of noncore assets, which gives us a lot of flexibility as we go into 2025.

正如我們在準備好的發言中所宣布的那樣，我們正計劃處置約 20 億美元的非核心資產，這為我們進入 2025 年提供了巨大的靈活性。

So putting all that together, we felt like $10 billion was a good place to start, and we'll do like everybody watch the volatility of the market and the commodity price, but I feel pretty good about where we started the year.

所以綜合所有這些因素，我們覺得 100 億美元是一個很好的起點，我們會像每個人一樣關注市場和商品價格的波動，但我對今年的開局感到相當滿意。

[Steve Richardson](Corrected by company after the call) with Evercore ISI.

[史蒂夫理查森]（通話後公司更正）與 Evercore ISI。

So I was wondering, Ryan, if you could dig in a little bit on some of the long-cycle CapEx, if you could, and the outlook.

所以我想知道，瑞安，你是否可以深入了解一些長週期資本支出，以及前景。

Just wondering if you could kind of hit on some of the moving parts around Alaska, Qatar, thoughts on Port Arthur Phase 2?

只是想知道您是否可以談談阿拉斯加、卡達的一些動態，以及對亞瑟港第二階段的看法？

And are we right in kind of assuming that your equity outlays on major projects are peaking in 2025?

我們是否可以正確地假設您在主要項目上的股權支出將在 2025 年達到頂峰？

Or is that a misplaced view?

或者說，這是錯誤的觀點？

Steve, this is Andy.

史蒂夫，這是安迪。

Maybe I can get that one started.

也許我可以開始這個。

There's a few bits of the question.

這個問題有幾個部分。

Maybe I'll start with Port Arthur Phase 2, and I'll get to the long-cycle capital.

也許我會從旅順口二期開始，然後到達長週期首都。

So on Port Arthur Phase 2, so this is a great project.

亞瑟港第二期工程是一個偉大的項目。

It's underpinned by a premier developer and a primary EPC company.

該項目由一家頂級開發商和一家主要 EPC 公司支持。

It's also positive to see a company like Aramco showing an interest in being part of that project.

看到像沙特阿美這樣的公司對參與該計畫表現出興趣也是一件好事。

But as we've said before, we took an equity stake in Phase 1 for unique reasons, which included getting the project off the ground, and it came with options on other phases and other projects.

但正如我們之前所說，我們持有第一階段的股權是出於特殊原因，其中包括啟動該項目，並且還附帶其他階段和其他項目的選擇權。

So we're very keen to see Phase 2 get completed.

因此，我們非常渴望看到第二階段的完成。

There's going to be cost sharing across the common facilities of the two projects.

兩個項目的公共設施將分攤成本。

So it is on our interest to see Phase 2 go.

因此，我們關心第二階段的進展。

But I think it's fair to say our primary focus is on building out our offtake and re-gas capacity for 10 to 15 MTPA.

但我認為可以公平地說，我們的主要重點是建立 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬噸/年的採氣和再氣化能力。

So maybe that sort of gives you the background on our thinking on Port Arthur Phase 2.

所以也許這可以讓你了解我們對亞瑟港第二階段的想法背景。

Then moving to the major project capital and the pace of decline of the $3 billion.

然後轉向重大專案資本和30億美元的下降速度。

As we said in our prepared remarks, our capital guidance for the year is $12.9 billion, and that includes the $3 billion of long-cycle project spend, of which there's $400 million of capitalized interest.

正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們今年的資本指導價為 129 億美元，其中包括 30 億美元的長週期項目支出，其中有 4 億美元的資本化利息。

And as we said, 2025 is expected to be the peak spend as we undertake the biggest winter construction season in Willow.

正如我們所說，預計 2025 年將是支出的高峰期，因為屆時我們將在 Willow 進行最大的冬季施工季節。

So if you look past 2025, we are going to see the major project spend step down each year.

因此，如果展望2025年以後，我們將看到主要項目支出逐年減少。

At the same time, we'll start to see the projects coming online delivering on our expected cash flow and free cash flow improvements.

同時，我們將開始看到上線的項目實現我們預期的現金流量和自由現金流改善。

And the first one of those will be NFE in 2026.

其中第一個將是 2026 年的 NFE。

Then that'll be followed by Port Arthur, then NFS and then we'll have Willow in 2029.

隨後是亞瑟港 (Port Arthur)，然後是 NFS，最後是 2029 年的威洛 (Willow)。

So there'll be a steady drumbeat of these projects coming on.

因此，這些項目將會穩步推進。

But I think the key point I want you to take away is that absolutely, we see this year as the peak spend in these projects.

但我想讓你們牢記的關鍵點是，我們絕對認為今年是這些項目支出的高峰期。

And I would add, Steve, and that we tried to say that in our opening remarks, look, this is coming.

我想補充一點，史蒂夫，我們在開場白中已經說過，看，這即將發生。

And there's going to be a steady beat of project start-ups, as Andy described, in at kind of a $70 WTI, $10 TTF, $4 Henry Hub kind of price deck, that results in $3.5 billion or more of CFO.

而且正如安迪所描述的那樣，在 WTI 70 美元、TTF 10 美元、亨利港 4 美元的價格範圍內，項目啟動將會穩步進行，這將帶來 35 億美元或更多的 CFO 收入。

But more importantly, over $6 billion of free cash flow coming relative to our 2025 starting point.

但更重要的是，相對於我們 2025 年的起點，我們將獲得超過 60 億美元的自由現金流。

So, all that's starting to materialize and is out there.

所以，所有這一切都開始實現並且已經實現了。

And these are great projects, low cost of supply, competitive in the portfolio and lead to the long-term growth and development of the company, which we're quite excited about.

這些都是很棒的項目，供應成本低，產品組合有競爭力，並將帶來公司的長期成長和發展，我們對此感到非常興奮。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Ryan, nothing short of spectacular performance in the Lower 48.

瑞安 (Ryan)，在美國本土 48 州中，他的表現簡直是太出色了。

And my question is that, when you laid out the 10-year plan, you talked about low single-digit growth.

我的問題是，當您制定十年計劃時，您談到了低個位數的增長。

And I think you're up 10% year-over-year, 4% sequentially in the third and fourth quarter.

我認為您的銷售額年增了 10%，第三季和第四季環比成長了 4%。

And I have to imagine it’s productivity gains, it’s efficiencies, it's all the things that you talked about.

我必須想像它的生產力提高了，效率提高了，這就是您所談論的所有事情。

My question is, do you accept that production growth on a go-forward basis?

我的問題是，您是否接受未來的生產成長？

Or do you trim activity levels and reduce your capital?

或者你會削減活動水準並減少資本嗎？

I'm just trying to understand what the philosophy is as to how you respond to the extraordinary delivery you've had in your portfolio?

我只是想知道，您對於自己投資組合中出現的異常表現有何應對理念？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

A huge shout out to Nick and his team there. they keep delivering some amazing efficiencies with the horizontals, the larger well pads and just the frac and drilling efficiencies that we experienced are really good.

向尼克和他的團隊致上最誠摯的謝意。他們不斷透過水平井、更大的井場實現令人驚嘆的效率，而我們所經歷的壓裂和鑽井效率確實非常好。

I know it's a little trite.

我知道這有點陳腐。

I guess production growth is a bit of an outcome from our plans.

我想產量成長是我們計劃的結果。

But I think the way we kind of look at it as we think about planning cycle year-over-year, and we got the great addition of the Marathon assets, which gave us another 2 billion-plus barrels of resource, sub-$40 cost of supply.

但我認為，當我們考慮逐年規劃週期時，我們會發現，馬拉松資產的加入為我們帶來了另外 20 億多桶的資源，供應成本低於 40 美元。

So we get to integrate that into our plans, and we build significant scale and scope, primarily Bakken and the Eagle Ford, but additional scope in the Permian as well.

因此，我們將其整合到我們的計劃中，並構建了具有重大規模和範圍的項目，主要是巴肯和鷹福特，但還包括二疊紀的額外範圍。

So we step back a minute, what we look at is trying to keep driving that efficiency that Nick’s team is delivering for the company.

因此，我們退一步來說，我們要考慮的是努力繼續提高 Nick 的團隊為公司帶來的效率。

So if you think about it, do you want to lay down some extra frac spreads?

因此，如果您考慮一下，您是否想放棄一些額外的分餾價差？

Well, all that does is end up building more DUCs than we need to build.

那麼，這一切最終只會讓我們建造比實際上需要更多的 DUC。

And you go the opposite way and say, well, why don't we cut out a couple of rig lines?

然後你又反過來說，好吧，我們為什麼不剪掉幾條鑽孔機線呢？

And that just creates a problem on the frac side, where we got to take frac holidays and we shut frac crews down for three or four months just to keep all things balanced.

而這在壓裂方面就產生了一個問題，為了維持一切平衡，我們必須休假，並且讓壓裂團隊停工三到四個月。

So we're just trying to operate within this efficient operating window, and the Marathon transaction just gave us the opportunity to reset optimized plateaus across both the Bakken and the Eagle Ford.

因此，我們只是嘗試在這個高效的操作窗口內運營，而馬拉松交易則為我們提供了重新設定巴肯和鷹福特優化平台的機會。

So we kind of approach it that way.

所以我們就是這樣來處理的。

We try to set a reasonable scope going into the year that doesn't allow us to whipsaw the organization, both up or down, and then we try to take a look at what kind of production growth comes out of that.

我們嘗試在進入新年度時設定一個合理的範圍，這樣我們就不會對組織造成上下波動，然後我們會嘗試看看這樣會產生什麼樣的生產成長。

So, it really is an output for the plans, trying to keep driving that efficiency.

因此，這實際上是計劃的產出，旨在努力持續提高效率。

And I'll remind people back in 2023 AIM, we thought we'd be adding two, three, four rig lines a year to get the kind of growth that we're seeing.

我要提醒大家，在 2023 年 AIM，我們認為每年要增加兩條、三條、四條鑽井線才能達到我們所看到的那種成長。

We haven't done -- we haven't added a single rig line over this timeframe.

我們還沒有做——我們在這段時間內沒有增加一條鑽機線。

So it's all driven around the efficiency.

所以一切都是為了效率。

And I think the point you're getting at is it is, in a macro that's growing maybe 1%, 1.5%, is the growth too much.

我認為你想表達的觀點是，從宏觀角度來看，成長 1% 或 1.5% 是不是太快了。

I think we do try to take a look at that at the end of the day, but it's really trying to drive for capital efficiency and returns on the capital that we're getting.

我認為我們最終確實會嘗試考慮這一點，但這實際上是為了提高資本效率和獲得資本的回報。

And we just don't want to upset that efficient machine one way or the other.

我們只是不想以任何方式破壞這個高效的機器。

Lloyd Byrne, Jefferies.

勞埃德·伯恩（Lloyd Byrne）、傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

I really appreciate your comments on cash flow and CapEx.

我非常感謝您對現金流和資本支出的評論。

It looks to us as though consensus is embedding almost flat capital and no production growth into the future.

在我們看來，共識似乎是未來資本幾乎持平，生產不再成長。

So I think that's important.

所以我認為這很重要。

I know you answered some of it, I just -- can we go back and go through what you would think is a theoretical maintenance capital number as you look out?

我知道你回答了其中的一部分問題，我只是——我們可以回過頭來看你認為的理論上的維護資本數字嗎？

And I'm also thinking about how efficient you've been in replacing dollars per proved developed in the US.

而且我也在思考你們在美國每單位已探明開發量中替換美元的效率有多高。

It's Andy.

是安迪。

I can take that one.

我可以拿走那個。

And I think you started it off for me.

我想你為我開啟了這一切。

The thinking of sustaining capital, it is a bit philosophical because it does require being in a sustaining world.

維持資本的思考有點哲學，因為它確實需要處於一個維持的世界。

So maybe I'll try and sort of triangulate on a couple of different ways for you.

因此，也許我會嘗試用幾種不同的方式為您進行三角測量。

So if you were to take our 2025 capital of $12.9 billion, as we've just cleared that includes $3 billion of pre-productive capital, and we're still growing the underlying business low single digits.

因此，如果您以我們 2025 年的 129 億美元資本計算，正如我們剛剛清算的，其中包括 30 億美元的生產前資本，而且我們的基礎業務仍以低個位數增長。

So if you then were to normalize that out sort of in round numbers, you get about $9 billion in the current commodity price environment, if we were trying to just stay flat.

因此，如果您以整數形式將其標準化，如果我們試圖保持平穩，那麼在當前商品價格環境下您將獲得約 90 億美元。

Back at our investor meeting in 2023, we gave a different data point, which was to say we could basically our sustaining capital would be $6 billion, but that was in a sustaining world at a $40 price.

在我們 2023 年的投資者會議上，我們給了一個不同的數據點，也就是說，我們的維持資本基本上是 60 億美元，但那是在價格為 40 美元的持續世界中。

Now the company has changed a lot since then.

如今公司已經發生了很大變化。

We've grown with the acquisitions and our organic growth.

我們透過收購和有機成長而成長。

So if you were to add Marathon organic growth, the Surmont acquisition, we'd be closer to about $7.5 billion on apples-to-apples in a $40 world right now.

因此，如果加上 Marathon 的有機成長，即對 Surmont 的收購，在目前 40 美元的世界裡，我們的同類交易價值將更接近 75 億美元。

But it is as I say, this is kind of hypothetical -- you've got to be in sort of a sustaining world before you really you contemplate doing these kind of things.

但正如我所說，這只是假設而已——在你真正考慮做這些事情之前，你必須處在一個永續發展的世界裡。

But if you're trying to model it, so hopefully that's given you a couple of different ways to sort of triangulate on the same answer.

但是如果您嘗試對其進行建模，那麼希望這可以為您提供幾種不同的方法來對同一個答案進行三角測量。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

Maybe just want a bit more color on the Lower 48, maybe on the CapEx side.

也許只是想在美國本土 48 州獲得更多一些色彩，也許是在資本支出方面。

In the slide that show the $1.4 billion reduction in the proforma CapEx, Marathon synergy accounted for $500 million of that reduction.

幻燈片顯示，預計資本支出減少了 14 億美元，其中馬拉松協同效應貢獻了 5 億美元。

But could you just give a bit more color on what are the other drivers?

但您能否進一步詳細說明其他驅動因素是什麼？

How much of it is efficiency gains that's lowering well cost?

其中有多少是透過提高效率來降低油井成本？

And how much of it is development optimization that perhaps driving a lower overall activity level?

其中有多少是開發優化導致了整體活動水準的下降？

And then just if I step back for a bit, if you maintain at this CapEx level, does that mean you would be able to deliver the same low single-digit growth that you outlined before because of all the synergies and optimization that you're seeing with Marathon.

然後，如果我退一步來說，如果您維持在這個資本支出水平，是否意味著您將能夠實現先前概述的相同的低個位數成長，因為您在 Marathon 中看到的所有協同效應和優化。

Well, this is Nick.

嗯，這是尼克。

Let me walk you through the few key components related to that $1.4 billion that you mentioned.

讓我向您介紹一下與您提到的 14 億美元相關的幾個關鍵組成部分。

And there's -- it's really around the operational improvements that Ryan was mentioning.

這確實與 Ryan 提到的營運改善有關。

It's that meaningful synergy capture of the $500 million that we talked about, and there's modest deflation as well.

這就是我們談到的 5 億美元的有意義的協同效應，而且還有適度的通貨緊縮。

So if I first start with the operational improvement, this is a well-established and demonstrated track record the last 2.5 years.

因此，如果我先從營運改善開始，這是過去 2.5 年中已得到完善和證明的記錄。

The team continues to do more with less and just hats off to the team that are calling in today.

團隊繼續用更少的資源做更多的事情，向今天來電的團隊表示敬意。

We demonstrated this in 2024 with similar rig and frac activity counts, we delivered 15% more scope.

我們在 2024 年透過類似的鑽機和壓裂活動數量證明了這一點，我們提供了更多 15% 的範圍。

That means more feet drilled, more stages per day.

這意味著每天可以鑽探更多英尺，更多階段。

But most importantly, it's more wells online.

但最重要的是，更多的油井在線。

And you're seeing that through the bottom- line production as we look into Q3 and Q4.

當我們觀察第三季和第四季時，您會透過底線產量看到這一點。

Now we're going to apply the same model, those operating efficiencies in a level-loaded, steady state development program to the Marathon assets.

現在，我們將把相同的模型，即水平加載、穩定狀態開發計劃中的營運效率應用於馬拉松資產。

So we see those efficiency improvements coming forward, and that is a key component of the material synergy capture of the $500 million.

因此，我們看到這些效率的提高正在推進，這是實現 5 億美元物質協同效應的關鍵要素。

Now within the synergies itself, in addition to those efficiencies, you've got items like moving on to common contracts, designs around facilities, different well programs, mud programs that are also in there.

現在，在協同效應本身中，除了這些效率之外，還有一些項目，例如轉向共同合約、設施設計、不同的井計劃、泥漿計劃等。

Now in addition to shifting to our steady-state development program, and if you recall, heritage Marathon were typically very front-end weighted with their activity and then ramped down Q3, Q4, we're moving to that over time.

現在，除了轉向我們的穩定狀態開發計劃之外，如果您還記得的話，傳統馬拉松通常非常注重其活動的前端，然後在第三季度、第四季度逐漸減少，我們會隨著時間的推移轉向這一方向。

But we're also moving our legacy positions in Eagle Ford and Bakken to an optimum plateau, and we'll reassess this as we integrate those assets.

但我們也將把我們在鷹福特和巴肯的遺留地位轉移到最佳狀態，我們將在整合這些資產時重新評估這一點。

So that's another big driver.

所以這是另一個重要驅動因素。

So you can think about, you got the efficiencies, you got material synergy capture, you got activity optimization.

所以你可以想想，你獲得了效率，你獲得了物質協同捕獲，你獲得了活動優化。

And then we expect modest deflation in 2025 as well, around $200 million.

我們預計 2025 年也會出現適度通貨緊縮，約 2 億美元。

So all that gets you to the $1.4 billion.

所有這些使您達到了 14 億美元。

Now related to production and continuing on with that, we've kind of demonstrated over the last 2.5 years, at flat activity we can grow the Lower 48 business.

現在談到生產並繼續進行這項工作，我們在過去 2.5 年中已經證明，在活動平穩的情況下，我們可以發展美國本土 48 個州的業務。

The teams have continued to drive operating efficiencies, and we do see that for years to come at flat activity.

這些團隊一直在不斷提高營運效率，我們確實看到，未來幾年營運活動將保持穩定。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的德文·麥克德莫特 (Devin McDermott)。

I wanted to circle back to Alaska.

我想繞回阿拉斯加。

Willow is a big portion of the major capital project spending and we're in the peak construction season right now.

柳樹是主要資本項目支出的重要組成部分，目前我們正處於建設旺季。

So I was hoping you can give us a bit of an update on some of the near-term milestones and remind us of the cadence for spending on that project over the next few years?

所以我希望您能向我們介紹近期的一些里程碑，並提醒我們未來幾年該專案的支出節奏？

And maybe just stepping back, Alaska has gotten a lot of attention from the Trump administration so far and even had its own executive order.

也許退一步來說，阿拉斯加迄今引起了川普政府的極大關注，甚至還有自己的行政命令。

So more broadly, could you remind us how you're thinking about the Western North Slope opportunity set and whether or not the policy environment creates more of an opportunity to move forward with some of this over the next few years?

因此，更廣泛地說，您能否提醒我們，您是如何看待西北坡機遇集的，以及政策環境是否會在未來幾年創造更多機會來推進其中的一些項目？

Devin, this is Kirk.

德文，這是柯克。

Yeah, there's a few things certainly in there to unpack.

是的，這裡面肯定有一些事情需要解決。

I'll start with Willow as you did and certainly happy to report that the progress we made here last year, certainly inclusive of fourth quarter, and even just this last month here in 2025, allows me to say we're really on trend with the progress that we've been making, and you've been hearing from me report out simply that, that project team there in Alaska just continues to hit all the key milestones that we've laid out certainly since taking FID back in late '23.

我將像您一樣從 Willow 開始，並且非常高興地報告我們去年在這裡取得的進展，當然包括第四季度，甚至就在 2025 年的最後一個月，這讓我可以說我們確實按照趨勢取得了進展，而且您一直聽到我報告說，阿拉斯加的專案團隊繼續實現我們自 23 年底收回 FID 以來製定的所有關鍵里程碑。

When I think about certainly the work that was underway in fourth quarter and even just this last month in January, the initial mobilization of that -- of our winter construction season, certainly that you point out is our largest for the project, has really gone quite well.

當我想到第四季乃至今年 1 月正在進行的工作時，我們冬季施工季節的初步動員，當然，您所指出的這是我們專案最大的動員，確實進展得相當順利。

So we got a quick and early start.

因此我們很快就開始了。

We got some cold weather.

天氣有些冷。

Ice road construction activities are dare I say, modestly ahead of plan, which is really nice for us.

我敢說，冰路建設活動稍微提前於計劃，這對我們來說真的很好。

It puts us in a position of taking full advantage of the full winter season knowing that we may certainly have a little bit of weather in front of us.

這使我們能夠充分利用整個冬季，因為我們知道我們前面肯定會有一點天氣。

And again, to the note of this is the largest winter construction season, we're in a great position of building on all the activity that we accomplished here last year.

再次強調，今年是冬季施工高峰期，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以繼續在去年完成的所有工作的基礎上繼續前進。

Again, this is a peak year of ice road construction.

今年又是冰路建設的高峰年。

It's from those ice roads that we're building gravel roads, gravel pads.

我們利用這些冰路建造了碎石路和碎石墊。

It allows us to, from those ice roads, build our pipeline networks.

它使我們能夠從這些冰路上建造管道網路。

And then we've got a few unique activities as well here planned this winter season.

我們也計劃在這個冬季進行一些獨特的活動。

Think bridge construction as well as some horizontal directional drills for pipeline crossing.

想想橋樑建設以及一些用於管道穿越的水平定向鑽探。

So again, lots to do.

所以，還有很多事情要做。

And then you even go into the operation modules that you heard me speak about last year.

然後您甚至可以進入去年聽我談論的操作模組。

We floated those -- barge those up to Alaska, landed those and onshored those during the ice-free season.

我們在無冰季節將它們漂流、用駁船運送到阿拉斯加、登陸並運上岸。

And those are -- I've got report-outs just this last month that those are moving across into the Willow development area.

而那些——就在上個月我收到報告說那些正在轉移到 Willow 開發區。

So we're using crawlers to get those into that new pad.

因此我們使用爬蟲來把它們運送到新的發射台。

So again, some really good progress.

所以，這再次證明了我們確實取得了一些進展。

We landed our contracts, engineering is on track.

我們簽訂了合同，工程進展順利。

That puts us in a great position for full fabrication across the entirety of this year.

這為我們全年的全面製造奠定了良好的基礎。

So all that culminates again, Devin into this peak year of spend, which is why we're guiding to an expectation of project capital being roughly $500 million more than we spent in 2024.

因此，所有這一切再次達到了頂峰，Devin 進入了支出的高峰年，這就是為什麼我們預計專案資本將比 2024 年的支出多出約 5 億美元。

And then last, it might just help you a little bit as well.

最後，它也許也會為你帶來一點幫助。

We're thinking about all of that spend and manifesting and probably close to one third of our total annual spend expectation here in 2025 showing up in the first 3 to 4 months of this year.

我們正在考慮所有這些支出，並且很可能將佔 2025 年全年總支出預期的三分之一出現在今年的前 3 到 4 個月。

And then so naturally, then we expect the capital this year to stairstep down in the second, third and fourth quarter.

因此很自然地，我們預計今年的資本將在第二季、第三季和第四季逐步下降。

And then you'd expect the same trend from us when we think about the total project spend, the balance of that we've guided on for the first couple of years post-FID, that will continue to stairstep down with very little, if any, spend in 2029, which is when we're expecting first oil.

然後，當我們考慮總項目支出時，你會預料到我們會呈現同樣的趨勢，即我們在 FID 後的頭幾年所指導的餘額將繼續逐步下降，在 2029 年（我們預計那時將首次產油）的支出將非常少（如果有的話）。

So again, great progress here.

再次強調，我們取得了巨大進步。

We look forward to continued hitting of milestones for our Willow project here in 2025.

我們期待著我們的 Willow 計畫在 2025 年繼續創下新里程碑。

And then lastly, yeah, there's certainly been quite a bit of press out there around NPR-A.

最後，是的，NPR-A 確實受到了很多媒體的關注。

And I would probably back up just a little bit to say, first and foremost, I think it's important for me to emphasize that the ruling that came out on NPR-A here from the prior administration doesn't affect any of the activities that we're doing up there, whether it's in Kuparuk, Western North Slope or even Willow.

我可能要稍微退後一步說，首先，我認為我必須強調的是，上一屆政府對 NPR-A 做出的裁決不會影響我們在那裡開展的任何活動，無論是在庫帕魯克、西北坡還是威洛。

But we did take issue, as did the state and certainly other stakeholders, with that ruling.

但我們、州政府以及其他利害關係人都對該裁決提出異議。

And so we were pleased to see that President Trump and that administration issued an executive order to, in essence, reverse what came about here late last year.

因此，我們很高興看到川普總統和政府發布了一項行政命令，從本質上扭轉了去年年底發生的事情。

So we recognize that's going to take a little bit of time here this year.

因此，我們認識到今年這將需要一點時間。

But yes, we're looking forward to partnering with the Department of Interior and especially with the state of Alaska.

但是的，我們期待與內政部，特別是阿拉斯加州合作。

Fundamentally, we believe that continued exploration west of Willow, it's the right thing to do for energy.

從根本上來說，我們相信繼續在 Willow 以西進行勘探，對能源來說是正確的做法。

It's the right thing to do for the state of Alaska and its stakeholders.

對於阿拉斯加州及其利益相關者來說，這是正確的做法。

And clearly, we're in a really good position.

顯然，我們處於非常有利的地位。

We're putting ourselves in a position to continue exploring west of Willow, as that's enabled for us.

我們正處於繼續探索 Willow 西部的有利位置，因為這對我們有利。

So again, some good news out there for us in Alaska.

所以，對我們阿拉斯加人來說，這又是一個好消息。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾梅塔 (Neil Mehta)。

I just would love your perspective on slide 4, specifically around reserve replacement.

我只是想聽聽您對投影片 4 的看法，特別是有關後備替換的看法。

There's been some discussion about how investors should interpret this number?

關於投資人應該如何解讀這個數字，已經有討論嗎？

And it's one where you appeared to do pretty well on over the last couple of years.

過去幾年來，您在這方面似乎做得相當不錯。

So just your thoughts on where you've been able to drive that reserve replacement, any geographies in particular that you want to call out and how we should interpret the statistic.

所以，您認為在哪些地方可以推動後備替換，哪些地區是您想要特別指出的，以及我們應該如何解讀統計數據。

Neil, this is Andy.

尼爾，這是安迪。

We agree that we still think that reserves and reserve replacement is a really important metric to measure us and to measure oil and gas companies by.

我們同意，我們仍然認為儲量和儲量替代方案是衡量我們以及衡量石油和天然氣公司的一個非常重要的指標。

So, we're really pleased that we're delivering yet another strong organic reserve replacement ratio this year.

因此，我們非常高興今年我們再次實現了強勁的有機儲量替代率。

As we said in the prepared remarks, that's 123%.

正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，這個數字是 123%。

A little bit of color I can add to that.

我可以添加一點顏色。

We're doing that while growing our annual production and also in an environment where prices fell, which that part results in downward revisions due to market factors.

我們在增加年產量的同時，也面臨價格下跌的局面，而這部分是由於市場因素導致的下調。

So we're particularly pleased that, given that, we're still having above 100% reserve replacement.

因此，我們特別高興，因為我們仍然擁有 100% 以上的儲備替代率。

Now specifically to where it's coming from, again, particularly pleased here in terms of the balance we have.

現在具體來說說它的來源，再一次，我們對所擁有的平衡感到特別高興。

Our Lower 48 organic reserve replacement ratio, excluding market factors, was over 100% again.

剔除市場因素，我們的美國本土48州的有機儲量替代率再次超過100%。

We were able to make the first initial booking on the NFS project.

我們能夠對 NFS 項目進行首次初始預訂。

And then now that we have complete ownership of Surmont, we're progressing Surmont development plans with new pads, so we were able to do some bookings there.

現在我們已完全擁有 Surmont 的所有權，我們正在推進 Surmont 的開發計劃，建造新的平台，因此我們可以在那裡進行一些預訂。

They're kind of I'd say the three big levers that I'd point to.

我會說它們就是我要指出的三大槓桿。

You'll see more detail when we publish the 10-K.

當我們發布 10-K 時，您將看到更多詳細資訊。

So that's how we go to 123% organic.

這就是我們實現 123% 有機的方法。

And then with the additions from the Marathon acquisition and the additional work in Alaska, the total reserve replacement ratio was 244%.

再加上馬拉松收購和阿拉斯加的額外工作，總儲量替代率為 244%。

So when you put all that together, we're showing -- for 2024, the reserves of 7.8 billion BOE, that's up 1 billion from last year.

因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們會發現——到 2024 年，儲量將達到 78 億桶油當量，比去年增加了 10 億桶油當量。

And our R/P is improving from 10 years to 10.7 years.

我們的 R/P 從 10 年提高到了 10.7 年。

And then one other little thing I'd add is that given the Marathon transaction closed so late in the year, the bookings we've got from Marathon primarily represent the proved developed reserves with minimal PUD bookings.

然後我想補充的另一件小事是，鑑於馬拉松交易在今年稍後結束，我們從馬拉松獲得的訂單主要代表已探明的開發儲量，其中 PUD 訂單很少。

So the teams right now are working through integrated pro forma five-year plans.

因此，各個團隊目前正在製定綜合的五年計畫。

And once that's finalized, we'd actually expect to make an additional PUD booking later this year.

一旦最終確定，我們實際上預計在今年稍後進行額外的 PUD 預訂。

So again, yes, another very healthy year and a good, sort of a good milestone for us in terms of achieving greater than 100% again.

所以，是的，這又是一年非常健康的一年，對我們來說，這是一個很好的里程碑，因為我們再次實現了超過 100% 的業績。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Great.

偉大的。

Maybe one on divestitures.

也許有一個是關於資產剝離的。

You've announced $600 million of asset sales relative to a target of $2 billion.

您宣布的資產銷售額為 6 億美元，而目標金額為 20 億美元。

Can you maybe talk about that program ongoing, going forward, the market and appetite for the divestiture efforts and within that, maybe the ongoing discussions around the Port Arthur equity sell down?

您能否談談該計劃的進展情況、未來市場和對資產剝離舉措的興趣，以及其中圍繞亞瑟港股權出售的持續討論？

Sure.

當然。

This is Andy.

這是安迪。

I'm happy to take that one.

我很高興接受這個。

So as you said, we've had activities well underway on multiple fronts now with disposition candidates.

正如您所說，我們現在已經與處置候選人在多個方面開展了活動。

As we announced today, we signed PSAs for about $600 million.

正如我們今天宣布的那樣，我們簽署了價值約 6 億美元的公益廣告協議。

That's noncore Permian assets, and we expect those to close in the first half of the year.

這是非核心的二疊紀資產，我們預計這些資產將在今年上半年完成交易。

We've actually reflected this in our guidance.

我們實際上已經在我們的指導中反映了這一點。

So that's part of what's in our guidance this year.

這就是我們今年的指導內容的一部分。

We've also got activity progressing well on other fronts.

我們在其他方面的活動也進展順利。

So we'd actually expect the majority of the $2 billion to be achieved in 2025.

因此，我們實際上預計 20 億美元中的大部分將在 2025 年實現。

So we're really pleased with the progress we're making there.

因此，我們對所取得的進展感到非常高興。

You specifically asked about Port Arthur Phase 1.

您特別詢問了亞瑟港第一階段的情況。

We've talked about this on a number of times in the past.

我們過去已多次談論過這個問題。

As we've said before, we took equity in Phase 1 for unique reasons, which included getting the project off the ground.

正如我們之前所說，我們在第一階段取得股權是出於特殊原因，其中包括讓專案啟動。

I think it came with options and other phases of projects for us.

我認為它為我們提供了選擇和專案的其他階段。

So it was a unique reason why we invested in that project.

所以這是我們投資該項目的獨特原因。

But the project’s now well into execution.

但該項目目前已順利實施。

And we don't necessarily need to be an equity owner forever in that project.

而且我們不一定需要永遠成為該專案的股權所有者。

But we also -- we can be patient.

但我們也可以保持耐心。

We don't need to rush anything here.

我們沒必要急於求成。

So that the project is using project financing to fund construction now.

因此該項目現在正在利用項目融資來資助建設。

So another way to look at that is that we'll continue to derisk the project every day without additional capital contribution.

因此，從另一個角度來看，我們將繼續每天降低專案風險，而無需額外的資本投入。

So it's an asset we look at.

因此這是我們關注的一項資產。

We've had -- we've got inbounds on that asset, and it's one that we will consider over time.

我們已經獲得了該資產的批准，並且我們會隨著時間的推移對其進行考慮。

But we feel very confident about the $2 billion target we put out there, and we feel good about achieving that this year.

但我們對設定的 20 億美元目標非常有信心，我們對今年實現這一目標感到滿意。

Bob Brackett, Bernstein.

鮑勃·布拉克特，伯恩斯坦。

Some of your peers have talked about opportunities in US data center power demand, either supplying feedstock gas or, in fact, setting up power demand via CCGTs.

您的一些同行談到了美國資料中心電力需求方面的機遇，要么供應原料氣，要么實際上透過 CCGT 建立電力需求。

What -- and your strategy clearly has been a more global LNG approach.

您的策略顯然是更全球化的液化天然氣方法。

Can you talk about comparing and contrasting those strategies and maybe highlight anything interesting you might be doing on the domestic power demand side?

您能否談談這些策略的比較和對比，並強調您在國內電力需求方面可能採取的一些有趣的措施？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Bob.

謝謝，鮑伯。

We like a lot of people have been studying it, and we're also getting inbounds on the power side, like a lot of people, primarily because we obviously, have a lot of natural gas, and we're producing -- we have a commercial power desk.

我們和許多人一樣一直在研究它，我們也像許多人一樣在電力方面獲得關注，主要是因為我們顯然擁有大量天然氣，而且我們正在生產 - 我們有一個商業電力部門。

So we buy and sell power all over the U.S. We have a large land position throughout the U.S. So there's some natural advantages that we have in that space, and we're looking at them and trying to assess some of those inbounds as another way to potentially monetize a lot of gas that maybe would get a lower Waha kind of wellhead price.

因此，我們在美國各地購買和銷售電力。 我們在美國各地擁有大片土地。

We've -- you talked about our main sort of thrust in the LNG space.

您談到了我們在液化天然氣領域的主要動力。

The way I would describe that is, we're bullish gas volumes in North America, but we’re bearish price.

我對此的描述是，我們看好北美的天然氣產量，但看跌價格。

So it's a great way to take advantage of those molecules and move them to higher-valued markets through that LNG channel, which we've described to everybody.

因此，這是一個利用這些分子並透過我們向大家描述過的液化天然氣管道將它們轉移到更高價值市場的好方法。

But the power requirements are going to be going up, certainly as hyperscalers, data centers are going to need opportunities for fast and cheap power.

但對電力的需求肯定會上升，作為超大規模資料中心，它肯定需要快速、廉價電力的機會。

So -- and we sit in an area in the Permian Basin that kind of fits a lot of those kinds of attributes.

所以——我們位於二疊紀盆地的一個區域，該區域符合許多這樣的屬性。

So we're looking at it.

因此我們正在研究它。

Can it scale to a really big business in the company?

它能擴展到公司真正的大業務嗎？

I don't know.

我不知道。

But we're looking at those opportunities.

但我們正在尋找這些機會。

But it's, first and foremost, got to fit our framework.

但首先，它必須適合我們的框架。

We've talked about what our financial framework is and its -- power is no different.

我們已經討論過我們的財務框架是什麼以及它的力量是什麼。

It's got to be competitive for capital.

它必須具有資本競爭力。

But certainly looks like some growth opportunities potentially coming, and we're assessing some of those opportunities right now.

但確實看起來一些成長機會可能即將到來，我們現在正在評估其中的一些機會。

Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Scott Hanold。

I was wondering if you could all provide your perspective on -- there's been a number of initiatives coming out of the White House.

我想知道你們是否能就白宮提出的多項措施提供自己的看法。

And how do you all see that impact the way you all do business and the industry as well.

你們如何看待這對你們的經營方式以及整個產業的影響？

And if you could give your point of view or perspective on the potential for tariffs and how that may impact your outlook?

您能否就關稅的可能性以及其將如何影響您的前景發表自己的觀點或看法？

Yeah, Scott, I can maybe start and let Andy follow up with a few more specifics.

是的，斯科特，也許我可以開始，然後讓安迪跟進一些細節。

Like -- we're following it closely like everybody else.

就像——我們也和其他人一樣密切關注它。

It certainly upsets the market.

這肯定會擾亂市場。

The market will find its own rebalance point if these go on for a long period of time.

如果這種情況持續很長一段時間，市場就會找到自己的再平衡點。

It does look like they're a negotiating opportunity for this administration to do some things that they want with both our southern neighbor and our northern neighbor.

這看起來確實是一個談判機會，讓我們的政府可以與我們的南方鄰國和北方鄰國做一些他們想做的事情。

So it will have some impact in the market.

所以它會對市場產生一些影響。

We've done some looking relative to our portfolio, and it's got kind of pluses and minuses as you might expect.

我們對我們的投資組合進行了一些研究，正如你所預料的那樣，它有優點也有缺點。

So I can let Andy maybe give you a flair or a feel for the specific impacts to the company.

所以我可以請安迪來跟你介紹一下或感受一下對公司具體的影響。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

Yeah, as Ryan said, it's something that obviously, we've been looking at closely.

是的，正如瑞安所說，這顯然是我們一直在密切關注的事情。

And no surprise, our primary exposure to the tariffs that were announced last week would have been the sales of our Surmont liquids into the U.S. We sell around half of our Surmont liquids into the U.S. on a mix of pipeline and rail, but the remainder is actually transported to the Canadian West Coast or sold in the local Alberta market.

毫不奇怪，上周宣布的關稅對我們影響最大的是我們將 Surmont 液體銷往美國。

So if tariffs were to be implemented, it's pretty difficult to say exactly who is going to carry the burden where.

因此，如果實施關稅，很難說清楚誰將承擔這項負擔。

The refiners in the Midwest and the Rockies have less options to substitute versus, say, the Gulf Coast or the West Coast refiners.

與墨西哥灣沿岸或西海岸的煉油廠相比，中西部和落基山脈的煉油廠的替代選擇較少。

Maybe just thinking about our other asset in Canada, the Montney, very quickly.

也許只是很快考慮一下我們在加拿大的另一項資產，蒙特尼。

So we don't actually sell any liquids or gas into the U.S. from the Montney.

因此我們實際上並沒有從蒙特尼向美國出售任何液體或氣體。

And we're actually pretty naturally hedged on gas between Montney and Surmont.

實際上，我們相當自然地對沖了蒙特尼和薩蒙特之間的天然氣。

And if you come up above Canada and think about ConocoPhillips as a total, this is where our diversified portfolio really comes into play to provide some mitigation.

如果你站在加拿大的視角，將康菲石油公司作為一個整體來思考，你會發現我們的多元化投資組合確實可以發揮一定的作用，從而緩解壓力。

If we were to see tariffs, we'd likely see strengthening differentials for Bakken, for ANS and possibly even the Permian.

如果我們看到關稅，我們可能會看到巴肯、ANS、甚至二疊紀的差異化加劇。

So lots of moving parts.

有很多活動部件。

And I mean I'm probably just scratching on the surface of the implications.

我的意思是，我可能只是觸及了其意義的表面。

If tariffs were implemented, we'd also see movements in foreign exchange rates that we'd have to factor in.

如果實施關稅，我們也將看到必須考慮的外匯匯率變動。

So there'll be an awful lot for us to work through.

所以，我們還有很多工作要做。

But ultimately, I'd draw you back to what we're focused on is what we can control.

但最終，我想讓大家回想起我們關注的是我們能夠控制的事情。

That's producing the lowest cost of supply volumes, then optimizing value with our commercial organization.

這就是以最低的成本生產供應量，然後透過我們的商業組織來優化價值。

As Ryan said right at the very beginning, we hope to see that we don't get in a situation of having tariffs, but we'll obviously be doing the work to make sure that we're prepared if they were to come into play.

正如瑞安一開始所說的那樣，我們希望看到我們不會陷入徵收關稅的境地，但我們顯然會做好相關工作，以確保在關稅生效時我們做好準備。

Neal Dingmann, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

Ryan, just a very broad question around M&A.

Ryan，這是一個關於併購的非常廣泛的問題。

Specifically, I am realizing is fairly dry on Marathon.

具體來說，我意識到馬拉松相當乾燥。

I'm just wondering when you look at the landscape out there today, would you characterize M&A opportunities that fit your requirements as better or worse than you saw this time last year?

我只是想知道，當您審視今天的情況時，您是否認為符合您要求的併購機會比去年同期更好或更差？

I just don't know kind of how many opportunities we foresee out there.

我只是不知道我們預見了多少機會。

Well, I don't -- we've said it in the past, Neal, that consolidation is going to continue in this business.

嗯，我不知道──尼爾，我們過去就說過，這個產業的整合將會持續下去。

I don't quite know when companies make strategic decisions to change the direction that they're going and create some opportunity out there.

我不太清楚公司何時會做出策略決策來改變其發展方向並創造一些機會。

The landscape is certainly changing.

景觀確實在改變。

There's probably less of the high-quality names out there just on balance as we look over the transactions that have preceded us, and what we've done over the last three to four years as well.

回顧我們之前的交易，以及過去三、四年來我們所做的一切，我們發現優質公司的數量可能較少。

But that doesn't say consolidation needs to go.

但這並不意味著必須停止整合。

But I go back to sort of our kind of three big tenets in this space is, look, first and foremost, has to fit our financial framework, our view of mid-cycle prices going forward.

但我回到我們在這個領域的三大原則，那就是，首先，必須符合我們的財務框架，我們對未來中期價格的看法。

We have to find a way to make the assets better if they were in our portfolio, and it needs to make our company better, our 10-year plan better.

如果這些資產在我們的投資組合中，我們必須找到一種方法來讓它們變得更好，而且它需要讓我們的公司變得更好，我們的十年計劃變得更好。

So those are pretty high hurdles.

所以這些是相當高的門檻。

And we had a unique opportunity when Marathon decided to do something different strategically for their company.

當 Marathon 決定為其公司採取一些不同的策略時，我們迎來了一個獨特的機會。

We weren't out looking, but obviously, we pay attention, close attention to everything that's going on in the business, and we take a view of these companies.

我們並沒有出去觀察，但顯然，我們會密切關注業務中發生的一切，並對這些公司進行觀察。

Certainly, that landscape is starting to shrink a little bit of real quality sort of opportunities that are out there.

當然，這種情況正在開始減少一些真正優質的機會。

Leo Mariani, ROTH.

裡奧·馬裡亞尼（Leo Mariani），羅斯（ROTH）。

I wanted to just dive a little bit more into the divestiture that you disclosed here, the $600 million.

我想更深入地談談您在此處披露的 6 億美元資產剝離情況。

It sounds like that's going to close in the first half of the year.

聽起來這個交易將會在今年上半年完成。

It sounds like it's basically all kind of noncore Permian, but can you provide a volume number associated with that in terms of roughly how much production is being sold?

聽起來基本上都是非核心的二疊紀，但你能否提供與之相關的數量數字，也就是大約銷售了多少產量？

And just any thoughts on commodity mix?

對於商品組合您有什麼想法嗎？

Is that kind of a standard Permian mix with a little bit more than half of that being oil?

這是否是標準的二疊紀混合物，其中一半多一點的是石油？

Yeah, I can take that question.

是的，我可以回答這個問題。

Yeah, it's -- the production from the assets would have been about 15,000 barrels a day last year.

是的，去年這些資產的產量約為每天 15,000 桶。

The assets are essentially noncore Southern Delaware.

這些資產本質上都是南德拉瓦州的非核心資產。

So that pretty much gives you sort of the typical mix of what they are.

這基本上可以讓你了解它們的典型組合。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Ryan, now you have a little bit more than two months under the belt with the Marathon asset.

瑞安 (Ryan)，現在您已經在馬拉松資產方面累積了兩個多月的經驗。

Can you give us some idea that what's the running room in those asset in terms of the Tier 1 inventory backlog, if there's anything that you can share?

您能否告訴我們，就一級庫存積壓而言，這些資產的運作空間有多大，有什麼可以分享的嗎？

And that can break it down by basin, particularly that in Eagle Ford and Bakken that really is quite mature over there.

並且可以按盆地進行細分，特別是 Eagle Ford 和 Bakken 盆地，那裡的油氣資源確實相當成熟。

And also whether that -- what is your game plan for Equatorial Guinea?

而且—您對赤道幾內亞的計畫是什麼？

Is there any differences comparing to what Marathon has been communicating to the Street before they've been acquired?

與 Marathon 在被收購之前向華爾街傳達的訊息相比，有何不同？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Paul.

謝謝，保羅。

Maybe I can take the Equatorial Guinea and Nick can provide some color on the Marathon assets that were acquired.

也許我可以接管赤道幾內亞，而尼克可以提供一些有關收購馬拉松資產的詳細資訊。

But at EG we're certainly pretty pleased with the CFO and the contracts that were established by Marathon that we've walked into at EG.

但在 EG，我們對 CFO 以及 Marathon 與我們簽訂的合約感到非常滿意。

We really haven't changed the plans at all that Marathon was walking into.

我們實際上沒有改變馬拉松正在進行的計劃。

We look forward to a couple of more infill wells that are going on.

我們期待更多加密井的開採。

I think the rig has been sourced, and it's -- they're about ready to spud.

我認為鑽孔機已經到位，他們就準備開鑽了。

So we'll be bringing it -- getting our feet under the ground with EG.

因此我們會將它帶到 EG，讓其紮根於地面。

I'd say, short and medium term, no real changes to what Marathon was doing at EG.

我想說，短期和中期來看，Marathon 在 EG 所做的事情不會發生真正的變化。

The bigger question is the same thing I think Marathon was grappling with -- what's the long-term potential in the area that can flow through the LNG plant and be marketed.

我認為，更大的問題和馬拉松正在努力解決的問題是一樣的——該地區有哪些長期潛力可以透過液化天然氣工廠輸送並進行行銷。

But we're trying to grow our LNG, and this fits well within the portfolio and what we're trying to do longer term for the company.

但我們正在努力擴大我們的液化天然氣業務，這非常符合我們的投資組合以及我們為公司長期所做的努力。

Maybe I can let Nick address your inventory question for Marathon.

也許我可以讓尼克解答你關於馬拉鬆的庫存問題。

Yeah, Paul, you're right.

是的，保羅，你說得對。

We've got a couple of months under the belt and look forward to the future months as well.

我們已經取得了幾個月的成功，並且對未來的幾個月充滿期待。

Yes, as far as the inventory quality, it's unchanged.

是的，就庫存品質而言，它沒有變化。

We don't see anything that -- from the acquisition case.

從收購案來看，我們沒有看到任何進展。

We've got 2,000 competitive well locations, as Ryan mentioned, around that $40 per barrel cost of supply.

正如 Ryan 所提到的，我們擁有 2,000 個具有競爭力的油井位置，供應成本約為每桶 40 美元。

Roughly about half of that is in Eagle Ford.

其中約有一半位於 Eagle Ford。

And then you can kind of think the remaining is split between Bakken and Delaware.

然後你可以認為剩下的部分由巴肯和特拉華分割。

So highly competitive out there.

競爭非常激烈。

We're looking at the current well performance as well.

我們也在關注目前的油井表現。

Eagle Ford looks very strong.

伊格爾福特 (Eagle Ford) 看起來非常強勁。

If you look at both our heritage COP and heritage Marathon on a barrel of oil per foot or even on a barrel of oil equivalent per foot and compare that to prior years from 2022 to 2023, really strong performance in last year's assets.

如果您以每英尺一桶石油或甚至每英尺一桶石油當量來查看我們的傳統 COP 和傳統馬拉松，並將其與 2022 年至 2023 年的前幾年進行比較，您會發現去年的資產表現非常強勁。

And we're seeing, as we drill these wells, they're meeting the type curve expectations in Eagle Ford and Bakken as well.

我們看到，當我們鑽探這些井時，它們也滿足了 Eagle Ford 和 Bakken 的類型曲線預期。

A couple of other things, just along the synergy lines when we combine these assets.

當我們整合這些資產時，還會發生一些其他的事情，以達到綜效。

If you look up in the Bakken, as we trade experience on our combined acreage for long laterals, we're seeing more opportunities for increased long laterals in the Bakken, as an example.

如果你看一下巴肯，你會發現，隨著我們利用合併後的土地面積來換取長水平井的經驗，我們看到了在巴肯增加長水平井的機會。

So the teams are just working to optimize and improve the combined inventories.

因此，各團隊正在努力優化和改善綜合庫存。

Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

查爾斯·米德、約翰遜·賴斯。

I wanted to go back to Alaska, and you guys highlighted the start of the Nuna project, which I believe was kind of mid-December.

我想回到阿拉斯加，你們強調了 Nuna 計畫的啟動，我相信那是在 12 月中旬。

And I wondered if you could put it, put the start-up of that project in the context of your overall call it 180,000 barrels of oil a day.

我想知道您是否可以把這個專案的啟動放在您所說的每天 180,000 桶石油的整體背景下。

I know you guys said it was 29 wells, but can you tell us -- is that going to be of a magnitude that we're going to be able to observe the effect of that in your 1Q and 2Q volumes in '25?

我知道你們說有 29 口井，但你們能告訴我們——這個數量級是否能夠讓我們在 2025 年第一季和第二季的產量中觀察到其影響？

Charles, this is Kirk.

查爾斯，這是柯克。

I can take that one.

我可以拿走那個。

I appreciate the question on the Alaska base business because certainly, that business continues to chart a course of really sustaining production here with some really modest growth in the next couple of years.

我很感謝你關於阿拉斯加基地業務的問題，因為毫無疑問，這項業務將繼續規劃真正維持生產的路線，並在未來幾年內實現適度成長。

And I think it really highlights the amount of investment opportunities that still exist for us in that business with Nuna being a prime example of that.

我認為這確實凸顯了我們在該業務中仍然存在的投資機會，Nuna 就是一個典型的例子。

So again, maybe just a little bit about Nuna and you pointed some of this out.

所以再說一次，也許只是關於 Nuna 的一點點，你指出了其中的一些。

This is a project in which we have built out a new pad, the first one in roughly a decade, and it shows the great work that the teams are doing in exploring and appraising new targets and taking advantage of the infrastructure that we have there.

在這個專案中，我們建造了一個新的平台，這是大約十年來的第一個平台，它展示了團隊在探索和評估新目標以及利用我們在那裡的基礎設施方面所做的偉大工作。

First oil was in December, that came on after drilling and completing and bringing on a couple of wells.

第一批石油是在 12 月開採的，是在鑽探、完井和開通幾口井之後開採出來的。

We do have plans of eight more wells here this year in 2025.

我們確實計劃於 2025 年在這裡再鑽八口井。

And all of that, as you point out, has actually come on the heels, if you will, of having drilled over 10 wells from existing gravel.

而且正如您所指出的，所有這些實際上都是在現有礫石層中鑽探了 10 多個井之後實現的。

So again, it shows the pragmatism that the team has really deployed of ensuring that we understand what these targets are.

所以，這再次表明了團隊真正採取了務實態度，確保我們了解這些目標是什麼。

We derisk those before we actually put new gravel out there.

在實際鋪設新的礫石之前，我們會降低這些風險。

We are, in fact, expecting that production to enable us to more than offset decline as we look at Alaska's production profile for the next year.

事實上，當我們展望阿拉斯加明年的生產狀況時，我們預計產量將使我們能夠抵消下降的影響。

And then we have a number of other targets that exist out there for us.

此外，我們還有許多其它目標等待我們實現。

And you've heard me speak to some of these before in Kuparuk.

你們之前也曾在庫帕魯克聽過我談論過其中一些問題。

In addition to Nuna, we have Coyote.

除了 Nuna，我們還有 Coyote。

Coyote is a really interesting parallel to Willow.

郊狼 (Coyote) 與 Willow 的對應關係非常有趣。

And then in WNS and our Alpine asset, we've got Narwhal and Minke.

然後在 WNS 和我們的 Alpine 資產中，我們有 Narwhal 和 Minke。

And so these Brookian topsets put us in a really nice position of using these wells to advance technology, to advance certainly our capital efficiency, knowing that some of these are great analog or a parallel to Willow, which gives us, again, that much more of an opportunity as we stand up a couple of rigs for Willow in 2027.

因此，這些 Brookian 頂層設計使我們處於一個非常好的位置，可以利用這些油井來推進技術，當然也可以提高我們的資本效率，因為我們知道其中一些油井與 Willow 非常類似或平行，這再次為我們提供了更多的機會，因為我們將在 2027 年為 Willow 建立幾個鑽機。

So really pleased with how that's taking shape for us on our base business in Alaska.

我對我們在阿拉斯加基地業務的進展感到非常高興。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·西爾弗斯坦（Josh Silverstein）。

Just wanted to get an update on the LNG contracting environment.

只是想了解一下液化天然氣承包環境的最新情況。

Curious if there's been any shift in the thinking around the need for new LNG in Europe, potentially due to Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or anything that the kind of administration is doing to kind of push more LNG projects here in the Gulf Coast potentially over there?

好奇的是，對於歐洲對新液化天然氣的需求，人們的看法是否發生了變化，這可能是由於俄羅斯和烏克蘭停火，還是由於政府採取某種措施推動墨西哥灣沿岸進行更多的液化天然氣計畫？

Yeah, this is Andy.

是的，這是安迪。

In terms of what's going on in the LNG space, I'd just say it's more continuation.

就液化天然氣領域正在發生的事情而言，我只想說它還會繼續發展。

There's nothing I'd say that's particularly new.

我說的並沒有什麼特別新穎的東西。

What we look at sort of the situation with Europe, heavily dependent on LNG.

我們來看看歐洲的情況，它嚴重依賴液化天然氣。

You've seen the Russia-Ukraine deal for the pipeline gas that came to an end.

你已經看到俄羅斯與烏克蘭的管道天然氣協議已經終止。

That's 1.5 Bcf capacity that is no longer available.

也就是說，15億立方英尺的產能已經不再可用。

You've just seen what's going on with the TTF pricing right now in terms of the cold winter they're seeing in Europe and just sort of how the inventories are being drawn down.

您剛才看到了目前 TTF 定價的狀況，從歐洲遭遇的寒冷冬季以及庫存如何減少來看。

So I would say that in terms of the need for LNG, nothing's really changed.

因此我想說，就對液化天然氣的需求而言，什麼都沒有改變。

And in terms of the way that we're looking at it, sort of our strategy remains unchanged.

從我們的角度來看，我們的策略保持不變。

We're really looking at how we can build out offtake of the 10 to 15 MTPA.

我們正在認真研究如何實現 1000 萬至 1500 萬噸/年的產量。

And as you've seen in the past, where we're building out re-gas capacity in Europe, and we're also looking for sales into Asia.

正如您過去所看到的，我們正在歐洲建立再氣化產能，同時也尋求在亞洲的銷售機會。

So I'll kind of just say that really sort of about where we're right on track with our strategy and thinking sort of things are playing out as we expected them to.

所以我想說的是，我們的策略確實進展順利，事情也正如我們預期的那樣。

Alastair Syme, Citi.

花旗銀行的阿拉斯泰爾‧西姆 (Alastair Syme)。

Another White House question for you.

我要向您問另一個白宮問題。

I mean the President made some noises about wanting higher levels of US domestic production.

我的意思是總統表達了希望提高美國國內生產水準的願望。

And I get your point about running the Lower 48 business optimal efficiency.

我明白您關於以最佳效率經營美國本土 48 個州的企業的觀點。

But is there anything that would incentivize you to go faster in that business?

但是有什麼東西可以激勵您在該業務上更快地發展嗎？

Not really.

並不真地。

I think we're just trying to drive the efficiencies, Alastair.

我認為我們只是想提高效率，阿拉斯泰爾。

I think the message that I've had for the transition team and for the people that are looking at it is the -- I'd say we are drilling, drill baby drilling.

我想，我要向過渡團隊和關注此事的人們傳達的訊息是──我們會繼續鑽探，繼續鑽探，寶貝，繼續鑽探。

I think we have to build a lot of infrastructure.

我認為我們必須建造大量的基礎設施。

So I think our focus, a lot of our focus and attention right now is on permitting reform, trying to make sure we can build out the infrastructure, both for the power kinds of opportunities that are going to be out there and then obviously the gas lines that come with it.

所以我認為我們的重點，我們目前的重點和注意力都放在許可改革上，試圖確保我們能夠建造基礎設施，既為了即將出現的電力機會，也為了隨之而來的天然氣管道。

And then just faster movement within the regulatory and the permitting environment for wherever you sit on federal lands, whether it's New Mexico, North Dakota, Gulf of Mexico, Alaska just getting more timely drilling approvals, rights of ways, easements and all those permits.

然後，無論您身處聯邦土地的哪個位置，無論是新墨西哥州、北達科他州、墨西哥灣還是阿拉斯加，監管和許可環境的運行速度都會更快，都能更及時地獲得鑽探批准、通行權、地役權和所有許可證。

They just had slowed down under the prior administration, and there's a real opportunity to get back to kind of normal business, if you will, to what we've had in years past.

他們只是在前政府的領導下放慢了腳步，而這是一個真正的機會，可以恢復到正常的業務，或者說，恢復到過去幾年的狀態。

And that just adds to the overall efficiency of the system and should lead to more sustained plateau or growth in our production coming out of the Lower 48 in terms of liquids and certainly the growing amount of gas volumes that are coming as well.

這只會增加系統的整體效率，並將導緻美國本土 48 個州的液體產量更加持續穩定或成長，當然天然氣產量也會增加。

So it just creates a better environment for investment and more efficient operations.

因此，它只是創造了更好的投資環境和更有效率的營運。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。

This concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。