康菲 (COP) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the third-quarter 2025 ConocoPhillips earnings conference call. My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加康菲石油公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。我叫莉茲，我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。（操作說明）

I will now turn the call over to Guy Baber, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉交給投資人關係副總裁蓋伊·巴伯。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Liz. And welcome, everyone, to our third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Andy O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Strategy and Commercial; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48 and Global HSE; and Kirk Johnson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and Technical Functions.

謝謝你，莉茲。歡迎各位參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾位成員，包括董事長兼首席執行官瑞安·蘭斯；首席財務官兼戰略與商業執行副總裁安迪·奧布萊恩；美國本土48州及全球健康、安全與環境執行副總裁尼克·奧爾茲；以及全球運營與技術職能執行副總裁柯克·約翰遜。

Ryan and Andy will kick off the call with opening remarks today, after which the team will be available for your questions. For Q&A, we will be taking one question per caller. A few quick reminders. First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation, which you can find on the Investor Relations website.

今天，瑞恩和安迪將首先致開幕詞，之後團隊成員將回答您的問題。問答環節，每位來電者限提一個問題。幾點簡要提醒。首先，除了今天的新聞稿之外，我們還發布了補充財務資料和幻燈片簡報，您可以在投資者關係網站上找到這些內容。

Second, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. We'll make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website.

其次，在本次電話會議中，我們將根據目前的預期發表一些前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能因今日新聞稿和我們定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的因素而有所不同。今天我們將提及一些非GAAP財務指標。與最接近的相應 GAAP 指標的調整表可在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ryan.

接下來，我會把電話交給瑞恩。

Thanks, Guy, and thank you to everyone for joining our third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. We have a lot to cover today, including our third-quarter results, improved 2025 outlook, strategic updates, and our preliminary 2026 guidance. Now starting with our third-quarter results, this was another very strong execution quarter. We again exceeded the top end of our production guidance, demonstrating the power of our diversified portfolio, with both capital spending and operating costs declining quarter on quarter.

謝謝蓋伊，也謝謝各位參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天我們要介紹的內容很多，包括第三季業績、2025 年展望、策略更新以及 2026 年初步指引。現在從我們第三季的業績說起，這又是一個非常強勁的執行季度。我們再次超額完成了生產預期目標，證明了我們多元化產品組合的實力，資本支出和營運成本均較上季下降。

On the back of this strong performance, we raised our full-year production guidance and we have reduced our adjusted operating cost guidance for the second time this year. In fact, we have improved all our major guidance drivers since the beginning of 2025 -- CapEx, operating cost, and production -- further demonstrating the strength of our team's execution.

憑藉這一強勁的業績，我們提高了全年產量預期，並今年第二次下調了調整後的營運成本預期。事實上，自 2025 年初以來，我們所有主要的績效指引指標——資本支出、營運成本和產量——都得到了改善，這進一步證明了我們團隊的執行力。

On return of capital, we raised our base dividend by 8%, consistent with our goal to deliver top-quartile dividend growth relative to the S&P 500. This type of dividend growth is sustainable, given the strength of our outlook and expectation for our free cash flow breakeven to decline into the low $30s WTI by the end of the decade. Year-to-date, we've returned about 45% of our CFO to shareholders, in line with our full-year guidance and our longer-term track record.

在資本回饋方面，我們將基本股利提高了 8%，這與我們實現相對於標普 500 指數而言排名前四分之一的股息成長的目標相一致。鑑於我們強勁的前景以及對自由現金流盈虧平衡點到本十年末降至 WTI 原油價格 30 美元左右的預期，這種股息增長是可持續的。今年迄今為止，我們已將約 45% 的財務長收益返還給股東，這與我們的全年預期和長期業績記錄相符。

Turning to our strategic updates, at the Willow Project in Alaska. After completing our largest winter construction season and conducting a comprehensive project review, we have increased our project capital estimate to $8.5 to $9 billion. This change is primarily attributable to higher-than-expected general inflation and localized North Slope cost escalation. Despite cost pressures, we have maintained the project schedule and made excellent progress on scope execution, narrowing first oil to early 2029.

接下來，我們來看看阿拉斯加柳樹計畫的最新策略進展。在完成我們規模最大的冬季施工季並進行全面的專案審查後，我們將專案資本估算增加到 85 億至 90 億美元。這項變化主要歸因於高於預期的總體通膨和北坡地區局部成本上漲。儘管面臨成本壓力，我們仍保持了專案進度，並在範圍執行方面取得了優異的進展，將首次產油時間提前至 2029 年初。

We also continue to advance our global LNG projects, another key driver of our expected free cash flow inflection. We have reduced total LNG project capital by $600 million. Our three equity projects, NFE and NFS in Qatar, and Phase 1 at Port Arthur LNG, are on track and have been substantially de-risked. Capital spending is now about 80% complete with our first startup expected next year at NFE.

我們也持續推進全球液化天然氣項目，這是我們預期自由現金流拐點的另一個關鍵驅動因素。我們已將液化天然氣項目總投資減少了6億美元。我們在卡達的三個股權專案 NFE 和 NFS，以及亞瑟港液化天然氣專案第一期工程，均進展順利，風險已大幅降低。目前資本支出已完成約 80%，我們的第一個創業項目預計將於明年在 NFE 啟動。

Looking ahead to 2026, recognizing it's early, the macro remains volatile, and that our portfolio is highly flexible, our preliminary guidance for both CapEx and OpEx is to be improved significantly, down about $1 billion on a combined basis from this year. And in fact, relative to our pro forma 2024, they are down about $3 billion. Underlying production should be flat-to-up next year, a reasonable starting point given the current macro environment.

展望 2026 年，考慮到現在還為時過早，宏觀經濟仍然不穩定，而且我們的投資組合具有高度靈活性，我們對資本支出和營運支出的初步預期將大幅改善，合計比今年減少約 10 億美元。事實上，相對於我們 2024 年的預測，它們減少了約 30 億美元。鑑於當前的宏觀環境，明年基礎生產應該會持平或成長，這是一個合理的起點。

Looking beyond just the near term, ConocoPhillips continues to offer a compelling value proposition to the market, one that is differentiated relative to our sector and to the broader S&P 500. We believe we have the highest quality asset base in our peer space. Our global portfolio is deep, durable, and diverse, with the most advantaged US inventory position in the sector. We are uniquely investing in our portfolio and driving significant efficiencies throughout the organization to deliver improving returns on and of capital and a leading multi-year free cash flow growth profile.

放眼長遠，康菲石油公司繼續為市場提供極具吸引力的價值主張，這與我們所處的行業以及更廣泛的標普500指數相比，都具有顯著差異。我們相信，在同行業中，我們擁有最高品質的資產基礎。我們的全球產品組合深度充足、持久耐用且多元化，在美國擁有業界最具優勢的庫存地位。我們正在以獨特的方式投資於我們的投資組合，並在整個組織內推動顯著的效率提升，以實現不斷提高的資本回報率和領先的多年自由現金流增長前景。

Consistent with our guidance last quarter, we continue to expect the four major projects we are progressing, along with our recently announced cost reduction and margin enhancement efforts, to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, potentially doubling the consensus expectation for free cash flow this year.

與上季的指導意見一致，我們繼續預計，我們正在推進的四個主要項目，以及我們最近宣布的成本削減和利潤率提升措施，將推動到 2029 年實現 70 億美元的自由現金流拐點，這可能會使今年自由現金流的普遍預期翻一番。

That free cash flow inflection is now underway. We expect to realize about $1 billion annually through 2026 through 2028, before an additional $4 billion in 2029 once Willow comes online. That's the growth trajectory that's unmatched in our sector. So bottom line, we're performing well, we're delivering on our plan, and we're well-positioned for 2026 and beyond.

自由現金流拐點目前已經出現。我們預計在 2026 年至 2028 年期間每年可實現約 10 億美元的收入，然後在 2029 年 Willow 投入營運後，還將實現 40 億美元的收入。這是我們所在產業中獨一無二的成長軌跡。總而言之，我們表現出色，正在按計劃推進，為 2026 年及以後的發展做好了充分準備。

Now with that, let me turn the call over to Andy to cover our third-quarter performance, major project updates, and 2026 guidance in more detail.

現在，我將把電話交給安迪，讓他更詳細地介紹我們第三季的業績、重大專案進度以及 2026 年的業績展望。

Thanks, Ryan. Starting with our third-quarter performance, as Ryan mentioned, we had another quarter of strong execution across the portfolio. We produced 2.399 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, once again exceeding the high end of our production guidance. Regarding third-quarter financials, we generated $1.61 per share in adjusted earnings and $5.4 billion of CFO. Capital expenditures were $2.9 billion, down quarter on quarter, as we passed the peak of our major project capital investment cycle.

謝謝你，瑞恩。正如瑞安所提到的，從我們第三季的業績來看，我們整個投資組合又迎來了一個強勁的執行季度。我們每天生產 239.9 萬桶油當量，再次超過了我們產量預期的上限。第三季財務數據顯示，我們調整後每股收益為 1.61 美元，現金流為 54 億美元。資本支出為 29 億美元，環比下降，因為我們已經度過了主要項目資本投資週期的高峰期。

We returned over $2.2 billion to our shareholders, including $1.3 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in ordinary dividends. Through the third quarter, we've now returned $7 billion to our shareholders, or about 45% of our CFO, consistent with our full-year guidance and our long-term track record. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $6.6 billion plus $1.1 billion in long-term liquid investments.

我們向股東返還了超過 22 億美元，其中包括 13 億美元的股票回購和 10 億美元的普通股息。截至第三季末，我們已向股東返還了 70 億美元，約占我們財務長收入的 45%，這與我們的全年預期和長期業績記錄相符。本季末，我們持有現金及短期投資66億美元，另有長期流動投資11億美元。

Turning to our outlook for 2025, we've raised our full-year production guidance to 2.375 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 15,000 from our prior guidance midpoint. This is even after considering Anadarko's sale of approximately 40,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent, which closed on October 1. We're reducing our operating cost guidance to $10.6 billion, down from the prior guidance midpoint of $10.8 billion, and our initial guidance at the beginning of the year of $11 billion.

展望 2025 年，我們將全年產量預期上調至每日 237.5 萬桶油當量，比先前預期的中位數高出 1.5 萬桶。即使考慮到阿納達科石油公司於 10 月 1 日完成的每日約 4 萬桶石油當量銷售，情況依然如此。我們將營運成本預期下調至 106 億美元，低於先前預期中位數 108 億美元，也低於年初的初始預期 110 億美元。

We're also making great progress on our asset sales program, with another $0.5 billion on top of what we announced last quarter. That takes us up to over $3 billion of asset sales out of our $5 billion target. Of this amount, $1.6 billion was closed and the cash was received through the third quarter, and we have another $1.5 billion that will have closed in the fourth quarter. That includes the remainder of the Anadarko disposition proceeds as well as additional non-core Lower 48 assets.

我們的資產出售計畫也取得了巨大進展，在上個季度宣布的金額基礎上又增加了 5 億美元。這樣一來，我們的資產出售目標已超過 30 億美元，而我們的目標金額為 50 億美元。其中，16億美元已在第三季完成交易並收到現金，另有15億美元將在第四季完成交易。這包括阿納達科資產處置所得的剩餘款項以及其他非核心的美國本土48州資產。

Turning now to our strategic updates. At Willow, we've updated our total project capital estimate to $8.5 to $9 billion. After successfully completing peak winter season, we undertook a detailed bottom-up re-forecast of the project and as a result have increased our cost estimate. The increase is primarily due to higher general labor and equipment inflation and increased inflation on North Slope construction.

接下來是我們的策略更新。在 Willow，我們已將專案總資本估算更新為 85 億至 90 億美元。在成功完成冬季高峰期後，我們對該專案進行了詳細的自下而上的重新預測，因此提高了我們的成本估算。成長的主要原因是勞動力和設備價格普遍上漲，以及北坡地區建築業價格上漲。

Scope execution has remained strong. We're nearing 50% project completion. This has allowed us to narrow our estimate of initial production to early 2029. Importantly, we can now level load the pace of our future work. More specifically, 2025 Willow project capital is forecast to be just north of $2 billion. We plan to reduce capital to around $1.7 billion a year from 2026 through 2028. After achieving first oil, ongoing development capital will decline to about $0.5 billion a year for several years. We continue to expect Willow to deliver $4 billion of free cash flow inflection in 2029, consistent with our prior commentary.

執行力度依然強勁。項目已完成近50%。這使我們能夠將初始產量的預估時間範圍縮小到 2029 年初。重要的是，我們現在可以均衡未來工作的節奏。更具體地說，預計到 2025 年 Willow 專案資本將略高於 20 億美元。我們計劃從 2026 年到 2028 年將每年的資本支出減少到約 17 億美元。實現首次產油後，後續開發資金將在未來幾年內下降至每年約 5 億美元。我們仍然預計 Willow 將在 2029 年實現 40 億美元的自由現金流拐點，這與我們先前的評論一致。

Turning to our three LNG projects, NFE and NFS in Qatar and Port Arthur LNG Phase 1, we are reducing our total project capital estimate from $4 billion to $3.4 billion. This reduction is due to a $600 million credit from Port Arthur Phase 2. The credit is for shared infrastructure costs previously incurred by Phase 1 equity holders. As a reminder, we only have equity in Phase 1, not Phase 2.

再來看我們在卡達的三個液化天然氣項目，即 NFE 和 NFS 項目以及亞瑟港液化天然氣一期項目，我們將項目總資本估算從 40 億美元減少到 34 億美元。此次減免是由於亞瑟港二期工程提供的 6 億美元信貸。此抵免用於補償第一階段股權持有人先前承擔的分攤基礎設施成本。再次提醒，我們只擁有第一階段的股權，沒有第二階段的股權。

With this credit, we're approximately 80% complete with our total project capital for these three LNG projects. Approximately $800 million of project capital remains, averaging just north of $250 million of spend annually, with a declining trend from 2026 to 2028. All projects remain on track. We continue to expect first LNG from NFE in '26, Port Arthur in '27, and NFS after that.

有了這筆貸款，我們這三個液化天然氣項目的總項目資本已經完成了約 80%。約有 8 億美元的專案資金尚未到位，平均每年支出略高於 2.5 億美元，並且從 2026 年到 2028 年呈下降趨勢。所有項目均按計劃進行。我們仍預期 NFE 將於 2026 年投產首批液化天然氣，亞瑟港將於 2027 年投產首批液化天然氣，NFS 隨後投產。

We're also making considerable progress in advancing our commercial LNG strategy, which will further strengthen our long-term free cash flow generation capacity. As a reminder, our strategy is to connect low cost of supply North American natural gas to higher-value international markets. We are leveraging our decades of LNG experience on a global scale to advance our strategy, which nicely complements our more than 2 BCFD, or 15 MTPA equivalent, of Henry Hub-linked US natural gas production.

我們在推動商業液化天然氣策略方面也取得了相當大的進展，這將進一步增強我們長期自由現金流的產生能力。再次強調，我們的策略是將北美低成本的天然氣供應與價值更高的國際市場連接起來。我們正在利用我們數十年來在全球範圍內積累的液化天然氣經驗來推進我們的戰略，這與我們超過 20 億立方英尺/天（或相當於 1500 萬噸/年）的亨利樞紐美國天然氣產量完美互補。

We have fully placed the first 5 MTPA from Port Arthur Phase 1 with combined regas and sales agreements into Europe and Asia. In terms of offtake, we've recently agreed to take 4 MTPA from Port Arthur Phase 2 and 1 MTPA from Rio Grande LNG, bringing our total offtake portfolio to about 10 MTPA, the lower end of our stated 10 to 15 MTPA ambition.

我們已將亞瑟港第一期專案的首批 5 百萬噸/年天然氣透過再氣化和銷售協議全部輸送至歐洲和亞洲。在承購方面，我們最近同意從亞瑟港二期專案承購 4 百萬噸/年，從裡奧格蘭德液化天然氣專案承購 1 百萬噸/年，使我們的總承購組合達到約 10 百萬噸/年，這是我們提出的 10 至 15 百萬噸/年目標的下限。

Now turning to our outlook for 2026, we are providing a high-level framework assuming about a $60/bbl WTI price environment. First, we continue to expect a significant reduction to our capital spend next year, about $0.5 billion lower than the midpoint of our 2025 guidance. So, in round numbers, that's about $12 billion for 2026. The year-on-year decline is driven by a reduction in our major project spend, including Willow, and the steady-state activity we achieved on the Lower 48 Marathon oil assets earlier this year.

現在展望 2026 年，我們假設 WTI 原油價格環境約為 60 美元/桶，並提供了一個高層次的框架。首先，我們仍然預期明年資本支出將大幅減少，比我們 2025 年指引值的中點低約 5 億美元。所以，粗略估計，到 2026 年大約需要 120 億美元。年比下降的原因是我們的重大項目支出減少，包括 Willow 項目，以及今年早些時候我們在 Lower 48 Marathon 石油資產上實現的穩定運營。

In addition to lowering our capital spend in 2026, we also expect to lower our operating costs. This is largely due to the $1 billion of cost reduction and margin enhancement efforts we disclosed last quarter. We expect our cost in 2026 to be approximately $10.2 billion, down $400 million from our current-year guidance, and down $1 billion from our pro forma 2024 operating costs, including Marathon Oil.

除了降低 2026 年的資本支出外，我們還希望降低營運成本。這主要歸功於我們上個季度披露的10億美元成本削減和利潤提升措施。我們預計 2026 年的成本約為 102 億美元，比我們今年的預期減少 4 億美元，比我們 2024 年的備考營運成本（包括馬拉松石油公司）減少 10 億美元。

Turning to our production, we expected to have a flat-to-2% underlying growth in 2026, a reasonable planning assumption considering the ongoing macro volatility. Additional guidance can be found in our earnings material, including our oil mix and our equity affiliate distributions.

展望我們的生產，我們預計 2026 年基本成長率將持平至 2%，考慮到當前的宏觀經濟波動，這是一個合理的規劃假設。更多詳情請參閱我們的獲利報告，包括我們的石油產品組合和股權關聯公司分紅。

Now addressing our multi-year outlook, there are a few important points I'd like to make. First, the free cash flow inflection guidance we previously provided remains unchanged. We expect our four in-progress major projects and our $1 billion cost reduction and margin enhancement efforts to deliver $7 billion of free cash flow inflection by 2029. In terms of the timing of that $7 billion, we expect to realize about $1 billion of improvement each year from 2026 through 2028, amounting to $3 billion of free cash flow improvement by 2028. The remaining $4 billion will come in 2029 once Willow starts up.

現在談到我們未來多年的展望，我想提出幾點重要觀點。首先，我們先前提供的自由現金流拐點指引保持不變。我們預計，到 2029 年，我們正在進行的四個重大項目以及 10 億美元的成本削減和利潤提升措施將帶來 70 億美元的自由現金流拐點。就這 70 億美元的投入時間而言，我們預計從 2026 年到 2028 年每年將實現約 10 億美元的改善，到 2028 年將實現 30 億美元的自由現金流改善。剩餘的 40 億美元將在 2029 年 Willow 投產後到位。

Bottom line, using 2025 consensus as a baseline, this translates to a double-digit free cash flow growth CAGR through 2028 before another material step-up in 2029, which will approximately double our 2025 free cash flow. So, to wrap up, we continue to execute well operationally, financially, and across our strategic initiatives. We are well positioned for a strong finish to the year and a good start to 2026. And we continue to find ways to enhance our differentiated long-term investment thesis.

總而言之，以 2025 年的普遍預期為基準，這意味著到 2028 年自由現金流將以兩位數的複合年增長率增長，然後在 2029 年再次大幅增長，這將使我們 2025 年的自由現金流大約翻一番。綜上所述，我們在營運、財務和各項策略舉措方面持續保持良好的執行力。我們已做好充分準備，力爭在今年取得強勁收官，並在 2026 年迎來良好開端。我們將繼續尋找方法來加強我們差異化的長期投資理念。

That concludes our prepared remarks. I'll now turn it over to the operator to start the Q&A.

我們的發言稿到此結束。現在我將把發言權交給接線員，開始問答環節。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

謝謝。（操作說明）尼爾·梅塔，高盛。

Yes, good morning, Ryan, Andy, team. I appreciate the time here and want to unpack Willow a bit because while there was a lot of good stuff in terms of execution in the quarter, the Willow update obviously was a little disappointing. So one, your perspective on the bridging from the $7 to $7.5 to $8.5 to $9 billion.

是的，早安，瑞恩、安迪、各位同事。我很珍惜在這裡的時間，想稍微分析一下 Willow，因為雖然本季在執行方面有很多可圈可點之處，但 Willow 的更新顯然有點令人失望。所以，第一，您對從 70 億美元到 75 億美元到 85 億美元到 90 億美元的過渡有何看法？

Do you feel, Ryan, that we've got a good handle around the project at this point? Because the history of major capital projects sometimes is they're multiple legs of announcements around overruns. And on the bright side, it seems like while there's cost overrun here, the timing's really intact. So just unpacking slide 4 would be great.

瑞恩，你覺得我們目前對這個計畫的掌控情況如何？因為大型資本項目的歷史往往是圍繞超支問題發布多輪公告。從好的方面來看，雖然成本超支，但時間安排基本上沒有受到影響。所以，只要詳細解讀第 4 張投影片就行了。

Yes, thank you, Neil. Appreciate the question and certainly appreciate the project for the company. And I know giving some clarity on where we've been, where we're at today and what that future looks like is important to provide that insight and the clarity. So I've asked Kirk to unpack this a little bit using your words, Neil, and spend a little bit of time to make sure you all understand sort of where we're at today and where we're going in the future. So let me ask Kirk to do that and provide a lot more clarity to that.

是的，謝謝你，尼爾。感謝您的提問，也非常感謝貴公司參與這個計畫。我知道，闡明我們過去走過的路、我們現在所處的位置以及未來的發展方向，對於提供洞察力和清晰的認識至關重要。所以我請柯克用你的話來解釋一下，尼爾，花點時間確保你們都明白我們目前的處境以及未來的方向。所以，我請柯克來做這件事，讓他對此做出更清晰的解釋。

Yes, good morning, Neil. Certainly, as you heard in our prepared remarks here this morning from Ryan and from Andy, we are increasing our guide on total project capital for the Willow project to a range of $8.5 to $9 billion. And I'll start by recognizing the strong execution that we've been achieving through our project team.

是的，早上好，尼爾。當然，正如你們今天早上從 Ryan 和 Andy 的演講中聽到的那樣，我們將 Willow 項目的總項目資本指導值提高到 85 億至 90 億美元。首先，我要表揚一下我們專案團隊所取得的出色執行力。

Certainly, as you've heard from me before, we're hitting the key milestones that we premised in our project plan that, of course, we laid out at FID back in 2023. This past quarter, we chose to perform a pretty rigorous bottoms-up comprehensive project review. And we were looking at scope, schedule, and of course, total project costs. And we were doing that in recognition that we knew we were coming in on about 50% completion, expect to see that as we move into this next winter season.

當然，正如我之前向你們透露的那樣，我們正在實現我們在專案計劃中設定的關鍵里程碑，而該計劃當然是我們早在 2023 年的 FID 會議上製定的。上個季度，我們選擇進行一次相當嚴格的自下而上的全面專案審查。我們當時正在考察專案範圍、進度安排，當然還有專案總成本。我們這樣做是因為我們知道工程進度大約完成了 50%，預計在下一個冬季賽季中，情況會更加明顯。

And it's common practice for us to take on a pretty rigorous, again, bottoms-up at this place and projects of this nature and of this size. And coming out of that exercise, we were able to provide two new guides on the project, not just capital but also on schedule. So starting with the first, the new guide on capital is a confirmation really largely of one driver, and that's that we've realized higher inflation post-FID in 2023.

而且，我們這裡對於這種性質和規模的項目，通常會採取相當嚴格的、由下而上的方法。透過這次練習，我們能夠為該計畫提供兩份新的指導，不僅是資金方面的，還有進度方面的。首先，新的資本指南實際上很大程度上證實了一個驅動因素，那就是我們在 2023 年 FID 之後實現了更高的通貨膨脹。

So addressing that maybe a little bit more detail here, total inflation is roughly 80% of the increase on our new capital guide. And I'll start with general inflation, which has been modestly higher across a few key categories that we've seen on the projects: general labor materials and then engineering equipment as well. And all of that makes up over half; and in fact, about 60% of our total project spend. So seeing that higher inflation is really culminating largely in what you're seeing in this new capital guide.

所以，為了更詳細地說明這一點，總通貨膨脹率大約占我們新的資本指南成長金額的 80%。首先，我想談談整體通膨情況。我們在專案中看到的幾個關鍵類別的通膨率略有上升，例如一般勞動力材料和工程設備。所有這些加起來超過一半；事實上，約占我們專案總支出的 60%。因此，我們看到，通貨膨脹加劇最終主要體現在這份新的資本指南中。

As you can imagine, just a few percent higher, we originally expected just a couple percent of routine standard inflation across the period of the project, but just a couple percent higher in inflation rates across the five-year duration on a project is driving this 15% increase against what was our original expectations at FID, expecting lower inflation.

如您所想，僅僅高出幾個百分點，我們最初預計專案期間的常規標準通貨膨脹率僅為幾個百分點，但五年專案期間通貨膨脹率僅高出幾個百分點，就導致了 15% 的增長，而我們在最終投資決定 (FID) 時預計通貨膨脹率會更低。

And then a bit more unique to this project, we've also incurred some localized escalation, particularly in our Alaska North Slope-specific markets. And that's really been driven by the fact that we've incurred more overlap of the peak construction seasons between our project and other projects ongoing in Alaska than we had originally expected. And that's resulting in roughly a 2x increase in the regional activity there in the state. That stressed the local markets, think labor, logistics such as trucking, marine, and then even the availability of camps for our construction work there on the slope.

此外，這個計畫也出現了一些獨特的局部升級情況，尤其是在阿拉斯加北坡的特定市場。這主要是因為我們的專案與阿拉斯加正在進行的其他專案的施工高峰期重疊比我們最初預期的要多。這導致該州該地區的活動量增加了一倍。這給當地市場帶來了壓力，例如勞動力、物流（如卡車運輸、海運），甚至我們在山坡上進行建築工作所需的營地供應。

We're often asked about tariffs. We have seen some impacts on tariffs, but albeit it's really been low single-digit percentages as a total of the increase we're seeing on that project. And then the last component on the upward cost pressure is related to a few decisions that we've made to ensure that we're mitigating total project risk and especially schedule risk, just to ensure that we're hitting the milestones that we need, especially on the front end of this project. And you've heard from me that we're hitting those.

我們常被問到關稅問題。我們看到關稅受到了一些影響，但儘管如此，就該項目所見的成長總量而言，實際增幅僅為個位數百分比。成本上升壓力的最後一個因素與我們為確保降低專案總風險，特別是進度風險而做出的一些決定有關，以確保我們能夠達到所需的里程碑，尤其是在專案的前期階段。你們也聽我說過，我們正在努力實現這些目標。

And so those have really paid well for us. We've pre-staged equipment on winter seasons to ensure that we can knock out all the scope that we had originally premised. And again, that's giving us the ability and the confidence to be able to guide you a bit more even on schedule. So to summarize, we've moved from about 50% of our contracts being locked up at FID back a couple years ago to now being well over 90% of our facility contracts being secured.

所以這些投資真的為我們帶來了豐厚的回報。我們已提前在冬季部署好設備，以確保能夠完成我們最初設想的所有工作範圍。再次強調，這讓我們有能力和信心在進度安排上更好地引導您。總而言之，幾年前我們大約 50% 的合約是在 FID 階段鎖定的，而現在我們超過 90% 的設施合約都已落實到位。

And a bulk of those are tied to market indices. That gives us transparency as the market moves and creates a lot of accountability with us and our business partners as we move through a project of this size. And so this summer, again, was the time for us to reconcile the actual inflation that we've been seeing over the last couple of years against the forward-looking expectation. And you're hearing from me, we're in essence taking forward the type of inflation that we've been realizing forward into the next couple of years just to ensure that we're being conservative through this process.

其中大部分都與市場指數掛鉤。這使我們在市場變化時保持透明，並在推進如此規模的專案時，使我們和我們的商業夥伴承擔起更多的責任。因此，今年夏天，我們再次需要將過去幾年看到的實際通膨與前瞻性預期進行比較。你們現在聽到的，實際上，我們正​​在將目前這種通膨趨勢延續到未來幾年，以確保我們在這個過程中保持謹慎。

So looking ahead, again, back to execution, we've wrapped up detailed engineering that compels us to keep moving forward on the process module fabrication. That's a longer-duration activity. It moves from this year into early 2027, in which we'll sealift those modules to the slope, spend 2028 getting those into the Willow development area, and hooking up and commissioning those for first oil in 2029.

展望未來，再次回到執行層面，我們已經完成了詳細的工程設計，這促使我們繼續推進工藝模組的製造。這是一項持續時間較長的活動。該專案從今年推遲到 2027 年初，屆時我們將用海運將這些模組運送到山坡上，在 2028 年將這些模組運送到 Willow 開發區，並進行連接和調試，以便在 2029 年實現首次產油。

So again, I'll wrap this up with an acknowledgment that we're just seeing really strong execution across the project, and that's foundational. It's paramount for us in a project of this kind. And we're on track with all of our major scopes of work. And again, all of this is culminating in not just a guide on capital, but then our ability to provide an accelerated guide on first oil to the early part of '29.

最後，我要再次強調，我們看到整個專案的執行力非常強，這是基礎性的。對於我們這類項目來說，這一點至關重要。我們所有主要工作範圍都在按計劃進行。再次強調，所有這一切最終不僅會形成一份關於資本的指南，而且會讓我們有能力在 2029 年初之前提供一份關於首次石油開採的加速指南。

I would just wrap it up, Neil, by saying that we're certainly disappointed that the costs are higher. But certainly, we've taken measures across our portfolio to help mitigate the increase, and I think you see that in our first -- that's why we thought it was important to give some guide to 2026.

最後我想說的是，尼爾，我們當然對成本上漲感到失望。但當然，我們已經在整個投資組合中採取了措施來幫助緩解成長，我認為你在我們的第一份報告中可以看到這一點——這就是為什麼我們認為對 2026 年做出一些指導很重要。

But the teams are executing well, and the project's really hitting all the milestones, as Kirk described. We think it continues to be a world-class project. It will be a huge driver of our free cash flow inflection that's coming over the next three to four years -- and really complete towards the end of the decade.

但正如柯克所描述的那樣，各個團隊執行得很好，專案也確實達到了所有里程碑。我們認為它仍然是一個世界級的項目。這將極大地推動我們未來三到四年內的自由現金流拐點——並在本十年末真正實現。

And then the last thing I would say is we're going out probably with a bigger exploration program than we've had in Alaska in a number of years, and it's that opportunity again to take advantage of this infrastructure that we're building for the long-term growth and development of the company. And if we're right about our macro call and where we think the macro is going, we're going to need this conventional oil to satisfy some of that growing demand around the world that we see. It ticks all of our strategic buckets as well.

最後我想說的是，我們即將開展的勘探計劃規模可能會比過去幾年在阿拉斯加開展的規模都要大，這也是我們再次利用正在建設的基礎設施，為公司的長期增長和發展創造機會。如果我們對宏觀經濟走勢的預測是正確的，那麼我們將需要這些常規石油來滿足我們看到的全球範圍內不斷增長的需求。它也完全符合我們的策略目標。

I know, a long explanation to the initial question out of the bat, but we thought it was important to provide some of that clarity and context around it to give you a cover. We know where we've been, we know where we're at, and we know where we're going.

我知道，對於最初的問題，我們一開始就做了很長的解釋，但我們認為有必要提供一些澄清和背景信息，以便為您提供保障。我們知道我們從哪裡來，我們知道我們現在在哪裡，我們也知道我們要去哪裡。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

Arun Jayaram，摩根大通。

Yes, good morning. Ryan, I was wondering if you could just maybe a quick follow up on Willow. The F&D on the project goes up by $2 to $2.50 per BOE based on your updated outlook. I was just wondering if you could comment on how this impacts your project returns and just overall break-evens, assuming, call it, a mid-$60 Brent type of price.

是的，早安。Ryan，我想問你能不能簡單跟進Willow的情況。根據您更新後的展望，該專案的融資與開發成本將增加 2 美元至 2.50 美元/桶油當量。我只是想問一下，假設布蘭特原油價格在每桶 60 美元左右，這會對您的專案收益和整體損益平衡點產生什麼影響？

Well, yes, thanks, Arun. Certainly, the estimated increase does impact the cost of supply of this individual project going forward. It still fits well within our portfolio. It's still very competitive within the portfolio. And again, we think longer term. We think about the future opportunities that are going to come from this infrastructure, which is our history sitting on the North Slope. We've always -- the satellite discoveries that we get benefit from the infrastructure that we built. We fully expect that to be the case going forward with Willow.

嗯，謝謝你，阿倫。當然，預計的成長確實會對該項目未來的供應成本產生影響。它仍然非常適合我們的產品組合。它在投資組合中仍然極具競爭力。我們再次強調，我們著眼於長遠發展。我們思考著未來將從這項基礎設施中獲得的機遇，這與我們位於北坡的歷史息息相關。我們一直以來都受惠於我們建立的基礎設施，而我們所獲得的衛星發現也得益於此。我們完全相信Willow未來也會如此。

And then I'd remind you, on the back end of this, the margins are still quite attractive, because Alaska's 100% oil, sells at a premium to Brent, typically on the West Coast of the United States. So that's why even with maybe a little slightly higher F&D, as you point out, we still feel very comfortable with the margin. And it's competitive in the portfolio, and it's going to deliver a project for the company that will add to its future growth and development.

最後，我想提醒大家，從長遠來看，利潤仍然相當可觀，因為阿拉斯加的100%石油售價高於布蘭特原油，而布蘭特原油通常在美國西海岸出售。所以即使如您所指出的，F&D 可能略高一些，我們仍然對利潤率感到非常滿意。而且它在投資組合中具有競爭力，它將為公司帶來一個有助於其未來成長和發展的項目。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

Betty Jiang，巴克萊銀行。

Hi. Good morning, team. Thank you for taking my question. Maybe shift focus to the Lower 48. We talk a lot about the free cash flow from the major capital projects, but noticing that the Lower 48 CapEx is also trending lower in the second half of '25 versus first half. And if you're staying here, CapEx will be lower year on year in '26 while still perhaps growing in that asset. So can you speak to the CapEx trajectory there and how do you see the free cash flow progressing from the Lower 48?

你好。早安，各位同事。感謝您回答我的問題。或許應該把重點轉移到美國本土48。我們經常談論重大資本項目的自由現金流，但注意到 2025 年下半年美國本土 48 州的資本支出也呈下降趨勢，與上半年相比有所下降。如果你繼續留在這裡，2026 年的資本支出將年減，同時該資產的價值可能還會成長。那麼，您能否談談那裡的資本支出軌跡，以及您如何看待美國本土48州的自由現金流發展？

Yes, good morning, Betty. You're exactly right. Maybe I'll take you back a little bit on the capital projection and a little bit of the efficiencies that we're seeing within the Lower 48 portfolio. If you recall back in 2Q, we achieved our level-loaded steady-state program within the development strategy with integrating the Marathon assets.

是的，早上好，貝蒂。你說得完全正確。也許我可以稍微回顧一下資本預測，以及我們在「美國本土48州」投資組合中看到的一些效率提升。如果你還記得第二季的情況，我們透過整合 Marathon 的資產，在發展策略中實現了均衡發展的穩定狀態計畫。

And so if you recall, we went from 34 rigs down to 24 rigs, so a pretty significant reduction. And we're still delivering kind of low single-digit growth in that. So obviously, we're taking in stock that lower capital from going first half to second half, and you're going to see that in the capital projections going forward.

所以如果你還記得的話，我們的鑽井平台數量從 34 個減少到 24 個，這是一個相當大的減少。我們在這方面仍然保持著個位數的低成長率。顯然，我們正在考慮上半年資本減少到下半年的情況，你會在未來的資本預測中看到這一點。

Another key component of that, Betty, is a lot around the efficiency improvements that we've seen getting into that level-loaded steady-state program, which I can talk more about. But we're seeing significant improvement on drilling performance as well as our completions. That will continue into 2026.

貝蒂，另一個關鍵組成部分是，我們在進入平衡負載穩態程序後所看到的效率提升，我可以就此多談談。但我們看到鑽井性能和完井作業都得到了顯著改善。這種情況將持續到2026年。

So if you kind of look at where we're currently at, we're probably going to be on a run-rate basis for 2026, something similar to 3Q for capital in 2026. And we will continue to have that level-loaded steady-state program roughly at 24 rigs and 8 frac crews going forward. As far as free cash flow, I'd probably let Andy talk about the total company, but we continue to see expansion with, again, all the efficiency improvements that we're seeing with the productivity that you saw in 3Q, a really good strong quarter.

所以，如果你看看我們目前所處的位置，我們到 2026 年的運行率可能會與 2026 年第三季的資本情況類似。我們將繼續保持這種穩定的作業負荷水平，大致維持 24 台鑽機和 8 個壓裂作業隊。至於自由現金流，我可能會讓安迪來談談整個公司的情況，但我們繼續看到擴張，再次強調，所有效率的提高，以及你在第三季度看到的生產力提升，那是一個非常強勁的季度。

Yes, this is Andy. I'll just jump in and add on to what Nick was saying. We feel it's important on the free cash flow inflection to talk specifically to the three LNG projects and Willow. But of course, there's a lot more than that going on in our company, and Nick's just described what we've got with Lower 48 and the flexibility we have within the Lower 48 with that inventory if we wanted to ramp up that cash flow for growth.

是的，這是安迪。我來補充一下尼克剛才說的話。我們認為，在自由現金流拐點處，有必要具體談談三個液化天然氣項目和 Willow 項目。當然，我們公司的情況遠不止這些，尼克剛才描述了我們在美國本土48州的業務，以及如果我們想增加現金流以實現增長，我們在美國本土48州的庫存所擁有的靈活性。

But even beyond that, there's other things that we don't factor into that free cash flow inflection. Commercial, for example, what we talked about, the commercial sort of strategy, we've got Port Arthur Phase 2, we've got Rio Grande that we just mentioned today that will come on after Willow. That's going to be sort of the 2030 timeframe.

但即便如此，還有其他一些因素我們沒有考慮在內，這些因素會影響自由現金流的轉捩點。例如，商業方面，我們談到了商業策略，我們有 Port Arthur 二期項目，還有我們今天提到的 Rio Grande 項目，它將在 Willow 項目之後啟動。那大概就是2030年左右的時間範圍。

So there's a lot more going on in the company than just those four projects. We've got other things going on in Canada, in Alaska, and around some other international assets, but we just wanted to keep line of sight on this specific free cash flow inflection, and then we obviously have ability to add to that.

所以公司裡除了這四個專案之外，還有很多其他事情正在進行中。我們在加拿大、阿拉斯加以及其他一些國際資產方面還有其他項目正在進行，但我們只是想密切關注這個特定的自由現金流拐點，而且我們顯然有能力在此基礎上增加投資。

Stephen Richardson, Evercore ISI.

Stephen Richardson，Evercore ISI。

Hi, thanks. Andy, it's a good segue from what you just mentioned about some of the other assets. I was wondering if you could -- it sounds like you've got some good visibility on some of the organic and capital-efficient opportunities in the portfolio. In Alaska, I was wondering if you could talk about some of the regulatory and permit changes and how you're thinking about incremental opportunities, either in legacy ops or extending the resource at Willow.

您好，謝謝。安迪，這正好可以引出你剛才提到的其他一些資​​產。我想問您是否可以——聽起來您對投資組合中的一些有機增長和資本效率高的機會有很好的了解。在阿拉斯加，我想請您談談一些監管和授權方面的變化，以及您如何看待在傳統營運或擴展 Willow 資源方面出現的增量機會。

And then if I could -- if you could maybe talk a little bit about Surmont. You've talked about incremental steam potential, but I understand that there's some other things that you could be doing now that you've got your arms around that asset and to improve it with minimal capital. Thanks.

然後，如果可以的話——如果您能稍微談談蘇爾蒙特的話。您談到了蒸汽機的增量潛力，但我了解到，既然您已經掌握了這項資產，您還可以做一些其他事情，以最小的資本來改進它。謝謝。

Yes, thanks, Steve. I'll take that one. I think it's -- yes, Andy's answer to the last one, it's -- this update’s a lot about Willow and some of the major projects to give the markets some clarity as to what we have going on there and some clarity into our free cash flow growth. And it doesn't really address and assume some of the things we have that we're studying inside the portfolio as well. And you mentioned a few of those, because I think we do have a strategic question longer term.

是的，謝謝你，史蒂夫。我選那個。我認為——是的，安迪對最後一個問題的回答是——這次更新提供了很多關於Willow和一些重大項目的信息，以便讓市場更清楚地了解我們在那裡正在進行的工作以及我們的自由現金流增長情況。而且它並沒有真正解決和假設我們在投資組合中研究的一些問題。你提到了其中的一些問題，因為我認為我們確實有一個長期的策略問題。

If our call on the macro is right, where's the conventional oil going to come from to satisfy the growing demand? And we see that demand growing, clearly 1 million barrels a day or so per year for the foreseeable future. And we look inside the portfolio. It's not only what we're doing in Willow and what we believe are going to be the added sort of pads that we can develop there.

如果我們對宏觀經濟的預測是正確的，那麼為了滿足不斷增長的需求，傳統石油將從哪裡？我們看到這種需求正在成長，在可預見的未來，每年每天的需求量顯然會達到 100 萬桶左右。接下來，我們將深入了解投資組合。這不僅僅是我們在 Willow 所做的事情，也是我們相信我們可以在那裡開發的其他類型的墊子。

And to your point, we're working with the administration to identify some ways to streamline the permitting. I think you saw an early read of that with the new rules that are coming out for development in NPR-A. That's just sort of the start. There's more things coming that will give us what we think is going to be a lot more clarity to faster permitting approvals coming in Alaska going forward. So watch that space as we move on and hopefully not only make it more preventable and easier and faster, but also more durable with changing administrations.

正如您所說，我們正在與政府部門合作，尋找簡化審批流程的方法。我認為你已經從即將出台的 NPR-A 開發新規則中提前了解了這一點。那隻是個開始。未來還會有更多措施出台，我們相信這些措施將使阿拉斯加未來的許可審批速度更快，也更加清晰。所以請密切關注這一領域，我們將努力使其不僅更容易預防、更便捷、更快速，而且還能在政府更迭的情況下保持其永續性。

And then to your other point, yes, when we look, that's just Alaska. And I commend the team also managing the base. There's a lot of activity going on the base side in Alaska as well. We have flexibility at the Montney asset to ramp up should the call on crude be required to go do that. You mentioned Surmont. We're right now de-bottlenecking that plant as we speak. Now that we own 100% of that plant, we were able to make some investments in there that our previous partner were not approving. So we're taking the gross productive capacity of the plant up today. And then looking at the future, can we add a few steam-generation capacity to accelerate some of the development that we have with the huge resource that we have around Surmont that's very competitive in a, all in sub-$40 cost of supply.

至於你的另一點，是的，當我們看的時候，那隻是阿拉斯加。我還要讚揚管理基地的團隊。阿拉斯加基地那邊也有很多活動。如果需要原油供應，我們蒙特尼油田的資產可以靈活地提高產能。你提到了蘇爾蒙特。我們現在正著手解決該工廠的生產瓶頸問題。現在我們擁有了該工廠 100% 的股份，所以我們能夠進行一些我們之前的合作夥伴不批准的投資。所以今天我們提高了工廠的總生產能力。展望未來，我們能否增加一些蒸汽發電能力，以加快我們在蘇爾蒙特周圍擁有的巨大資源的開發，這些資源非常有競爭力，所有供應成本均低於 40 美元。

So when we look at the whole portfolio, and you look at the deep inventory we have in the Lower 48, combined with the other conventional opportunities we have around the world, we're really set up for decades of growth in this business. I like where we're at and I like the portfolio and what we're doing today and the optionality that it creates for the company over the short, medium, and long term.

因此，當我們審視整個投資組合，並考慮到我們在美國本土48州的大量庫存，以及我們在世界各地擁有的其他傳統機會時，我們已經為該行業未來幾十年的增長做好了充分準備。我喜歡我們目前所處的位置，我喜歡我們的投資組合以及我們今天正在做的事情，以及它為公司在短期、中期和長期內創造的選擇權。

Lloyd Byrne, Jefferies.

勞埃德伯恩，傑富瑞集團。

Hi. Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Ryan or Andy, I was just hoping you could spend a little bit more time on the OpEx. I mean, $400 million improvement. And in light of it kind of being the second cut this year, what's changing? Maybe remind us of the big factors that have improved and whether you can improve it further. Thanks.

你好。謝謝。大家下午好。Ryan 或 Andy，我只是希望你們能多花點時間在營運支出方面。我的意思是，4億美元的改進。鑑於這是今年的第二次裁員，有哪些改變？或許可以提醒我們哪些方面已經有所改進，以及是否還有進一步改進的空間。謝謝。

Yes, thanks, Lloyd. I can take that one. I think, at the highest level, the first thing I would say is that we're executing really well with our costs and capturing the savings. And as you said, that's why we've been able to reduce the guidance for the second time this year. But going into a few specifics, I would remind people that we've already achieved now 75% of the math and synergies that we were talking about over the prior quarters. That's in our costs.

是的，謝謝你，勞埃德。我可以接受這個。我認為，從最高層面來說，首先要說的是，我們在成本控制方面做得非常好，並且實現了成本節約。正如你所說，正因如此，我們今年才能第二次下調業績預期。但具體來說，我想提醒大家，我們已經實現了前幾季所討論的數學和綜效的 75%。那都算在我們的成本裡了。

And we'll have that basically completely into our costs by the time we get to the end of this year on a run-rate basis. So we're exceptionally pleased with how smoothly that's gone in delivering on those cost reductions that we've previously talked about. And then as we look to 2026, stepping the cost down again, as you said, that's basically getting the full-year benefit of some Marathon synergies that I just described.

到今年年底，我們將基本把這筆費用全部計入我們的營運成本中。因此，我們對先前討論過的成本削減措施的順利實施感到非常滿意。然後，展望 2026 年，正如你所說，再次降低成本，基本上就能獲得我剛才描述的馬拉松協同效應帶來的全年收益。

But then we expect to capture a meaningful amount of the cost improvements that we announced on the last quarter call. That's basically going to drive some pretty meaningful reductions in our costs as we go through next year. They're kind of the key things. And when we think about sort of how we reduce costs, we have sort of a mindset that this is continuous improvement. So we absolutely sort of challenge ourselves to sort of look at how we can basically continue to reduce those costs over time. But I think we're very pleased with sort of how we're doing that and sort of how that's showing up in our bottom line.

但我們預計，我們將實現上個季度電話會議上宣布的大部分成本改善措施。這基本上會促使我們在明年大幅降低成本。它們算是關鍵因素。當我們思考如何降低成本時，我們秉持著持續改善的理念。因此，我們一直在挑戰自己，思考如何隨著時間的推移不斷降低這些成本。但我認為我們對目前的做法以及最終的獲利情況都非常滿意。

And I would add, Lloyd, you know us well. These reductions aren't conflated with capital kinds of things. They're not due to dispositions in the portfolio. We don't have 30 lines of reconciliation because the net doesn't ever show up. And they're not cumulative. These are costs that will show up on our bottom line. And as I've said before, just watch us every quarter. And you'll see them materialize. They'll be real and they'll head straight to the bottom line and to our free cash flow inflection that we've been talking about for the next number of years.

我還要補充一點，勞埃德，你很了解我們。這些削減與資本方面的事情無關。這並非由於投資組合中的資產處置所致。我們沒有 30 行對帳記錄，因為淨額根本不會顯示出來。而且它們並非累加的。這些成本最終都會反映在我們的利潤中。正如我之前所說，請大家每季都關注我們。你會看到它們變成現實。它們將是實實在在的，它們將直接影響最終結果，並帶來我們多年來一直在談論的自由現金流轉折點。

Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Hanold，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Hey, good morning. Thanks. I know it's always challenging to provide forward guidance with some uncertainty on commodity prices, so I appreciate the details on '26. Looking at total production and capital, it does appear similar to consensus numbers. But there does appear to be a variance to your oil guide relative to consensus. I was hoping you could help us walk through where we might have missed that. We do understand there's a lot of complexity given the diversity of assets and other things like Surmont post-payout, but I was wondering if you could walk us through some of that.

嘿，早安。謝謝。我知道在商品價格存在一些不確定性的情況下，提供前瞻性指引總是很困難的，所以我很感謝您提供的 2026 年的詳細資訊。從總產量和資本來看，這似乎與普遍預期相符。但你的用油指引似乎與普遍共識有差異。我希望你能幫我們理清思路，找出我們可能遺漏的地方。我們理解，考慮到資產的多樣性以及 Surmont 支付後的其他事項，情況會非常複雜，但我想知道您是否可以為我們解釋其中的一些內容。

Hey, Scott. This is Andy. I'll get us started with a couple of points here, and then maybe Nick can provide a bit more detail on the Lower 48 for us. So just a couple of things I'd say is that if you look at our third quarter, at the total company, we're at a mix of about 53% oil. And this is the first quarter now where we have the full impact of Surmont that you just referenced. So we now have a higher royalty into Surmont.

嘿，斯科特。這是安迪。我先拋磚引玉，提出幾點，然後也許尼克可以為我們詳細介紹美國本土48州的情況。所以我想說兩點：如果你看我們第三季度，就整個公司而言，我們的投資組合中石油約佔 53%。現在，我們才真正感受到您剛才提到的蘇爾蒙特計畫帶來的全部影響。所以我們現在向蘇爾蒙特公司支付了更高的版稅。

So the third quarter is a pretty good mark, basically, as we think about 2026. And we've provided guidance, and hopefully you found that helpful, where we've now provided guidance basically for an oil split and where we're basically forecasting '26 to be about that 53% for the total company. That does include sort of the bitumen impact of higher royalties at Surmont. And then specifically to Lower 48, we're guiding about 50% for the Lower 48.

所以，從整體來看，第三季是一個相當不錯的里程碑，尤其是在展望 2026 年的時候。我們已經提供了指導，希望這對您有所幫助。我們現在基本上提供了石油拆分的指導，我們預測 2026 年公司整體的石油拆分比例約為 53%。這其中確實包括了蘇爾蒙特瀝青廠更高的特許權使用費所帶來的影響。具體到美國本土48州，我們預期佔比約50%。

And then just one final point I would make before Nick can maybe comment on the Lower 48 is when we provided our '26 guidance of 0% to 2% range for BOEs, that's also a good range for how we're thinking about oil as well. So I think we've tried to guide a bit more on it this time. As you say, we recognize, as you provided for us up front, that there's a lot of moving parts here across the portfolio. But that 53% for the total company, we think it's a good mark for next year. Maybe Nick has had a few comments on Lower 48.

最後，在尼克可能對美國本土48州發表評論之前，我想補充一點：我們之前給出的2026年油價漲幅指導為0%至2%，這同樣也是我們對石油價格走勢的看法。所以我覺得這次我們在這方面做了更多指導。正如您所說，我們也認識到，正如您事先向我們說明的那樣，整個投資組合中有很多環節都在變化。但我們認為，公司整體的 53% 這個比例對於明年來說是一個不錯的成績。或許尼克對美國本土48州有一些評論。

Yes, thanks, Andy. And good morning, Scott. Yes, if you look at 3Q, Lower 48 oil mix, we were around about 50%. If you compare that to 2Q, it was about 50.5%. And that was in line with our expectations and our development plan going forward. As Andy mentioned, we're guiding to oil mix at 50% when you look at 2026 forward. And again, that's simply an output of our plan and output of our development plans where we're developing in the various basins.

是的，謝謝你，安迪。早安，史考特。是的，如果你看一下第三季美國本土48州的石油混合比例，我們大約是50%。如果與第二季相比，約為 50.5%。這符合我們的預期和未來的發展計畫。正如安迪所提到的，我們預計到 2026 年及以後，石油與天然氣的混合比例將達到 50%。再次強調，這只是我們計畫的成果，也是我們在各盆地進行開發與建設的成果。

Now as a reminder for the group, within the Delaware, that is our most significant growth driver within the Lower 48. So it shouldn't be a surprise to this group that oil mix will trend in that direction. It's low cost of supply, higher gas content, but very good strong oil content and good returns. Another key component to think through is we've got two decades-plus of drilling inventory at current rig activity levels in the Delaware. It's a peer-leading opportunity set out there.

現在提醒各位，德拉瓦州是我們在美國本土48州最重要的成長動力。因此，對於這個群體來說，石油混合物將朝著這個方向發展應該不足為奇。它的供應成本低，天然氣含量高，但石油含量很高，收益也很好。另一個需要考慮的關鍵因素是，按照特拉華州目前的鑽井活動水平，我們擁有超過二十年的鑽井儲備。這是一個同行領先的機會。

Now one other component that you need to think through is that oil mix can fluctuate depending on the relative contributions from these basins as we drill in different areas. So you might have some higher oil mix and some lower oil mix and variations from quarter to quarter. But overall, as Andy mentioned, 50% on Lower 48 oil mix going forward.

現在你需要考慮的另一個因素是，由於我們在不同的區域鑽探，石油混合物會根據這些盆地的相對貢獻而波動。所以，有些季度的油耗比例較高，有些季度的油耗比例較低，每季的油耗比例也會有所不同。但總的來說，如安迪所提到的，未來50%的石油將來自美國本土48個州。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特，沃爾夫研究公司。

Thank you. Guys, I'm going to try very hard to make this one question, but I'm hoping you can maybe help us navigate the moving parts a little bit. My question is principally on Willow and the CapEx, what happens after Willow. But it's really about the evolution of your dividend breakeven because I think the Willow news has overshadowed the other big news, which of course was your dividend increase.

謝謝。各位，我會盡力把這個問題簡化成一個問題，但我希望你們能幫我們理清一下其中的複雜環節。我的問題主要關於 Willow 專案和資本支出，以及 Willow 專案結束後會發生什麼。但實際上，這關乎你的股息盈虧平衡點的演變，因為我認為 Willow 的消息掩蓋了另一則重大消息，當然，那就是你的股息成長。

So I guess the way I would try and phrase the question is how damaging is the increase in Willow spending to the cash cadence of the cash flow coming back? And I guess my point specifically is you get qualified CapEx deductible on taxes in Alaska. It's pretty advantaged. So can you walk us through how big a deal this really is and what happens to the dividend breakeven as Willow comes online?

所以我想這樣問：Willow 支出的增加對現金流的恢復節奏造成了多大的傷害？我想特別指出的是，在阿拉斯加，符合條件的資本支出可以抵扣稅款。這優勢相當明顯。那麼，您能否詳細解釋一下這件事到底有多重要，以及Willow上線後股息損益平衡點會發生什麼變化？

Hey, Doug. This is Andy. I can try and step through that. I think you sort of half answered the question for me in terms of sort of how this works on a tax basis. And Ryan touched on this also in the prepared remarks. And the way I would look at it, sort of at a total company level, is our breakeven is coming down. And it's coming down pretty substantially.

嘿，道格。這是安迪。我可以試著一步一步地解決。我認為你已經幫我解答了一半的問題，也就是它在稅務方面是如何運作的。瑞安在事先準備好的演講稿中也提到了這一點。從整個公司的角度來看，我們的損益平衡點正在下降。而且降幅相當大。

Just right now, if you think about where we are right now, our breakeven this year, so just on CapEx, is in the mid-$40s. You'd add another $10 to that for the dividend. Just from what we've described today from what we're doing from '25 to '26, that brings our breakeven down in and of itself $2 to $3. So we're on this trajectory of, yes, cash flow inflection is going in one direction, which is great, and then our breakeven is also coming down, which is great.

就目前而言，如果你想想我們現在的處境，我們今年的損益平衡點，也就是僅就資本支出而言，就在 40 美元左右。除此之外，你還得加上10美元的股息。僅從我們今天所描述的，以及我們從 2025 年到 2026 年所做的事情來看，這本身就能使我們的損益平衡點降低 2 到 3 美元。所以，我們目前的發展軌跡是這樣的：現金流拐點正在朝著一個方向發展，這很好；同時，我們的損益平衡點也在下降，這也很好。

And as Ryan said in his prepared remarks, that's going to continue to happen, where we're going to go all the way down to being in the low $30s on a capital breakeven by the time Willow comes online. So I don't think what we've described today with CapEx and Willow going up -- and let's not forget also the LNG CapEx coming down -- there's not really notable impact on our break-evens and our ability to generate cash flow over this timeframe, and our cash flow inflection remains unchanged. That's why you started the question with the dividend, and hopefully that isn't getting lost in all of the news that we're describing today. But we have now increased that dividend by 8%, and this is now the fifth year of us having top-quartile growth of the dividend versus the S&P 500. And we feel very confident with that breakeven that that continues.

正如瑞安在事先準備好的演講稿中所說，這種情況還會繼續下去，到 Willow 計畫上線時，我們的資本盈虧平衡點將會降至 30 美元出頭。所以，我認為我們今天所描述的資本支出和 Willow 項目增加——也別忘了液化天然氣資本支出減少——對我們的盈虧平衡點和我們在此期間產生現金流的能力並沒有真正的顯著影響，我們的現金流拐點保持不變。這就是為什麼你一開始就問分紅的問題，希望這一點不會在我們今天報道的所有新聞中被忽略。但我們現在已經將股息提高了 8%，而且今年是我們股息成長率連續第五年位居標普 500 指數前四分之一。我們對目前的損益平衡點非常有信心，相信這種情況會持續下去。

Yes, and I would add as well, Doug, look -- and it's sustainable given the breakeven coming down, as Andy described. The dividend is representing a lower portion of our total cash flow in terms of our distribution back to the shareholders. So it ought to give the shareholders and stakeholders in the company a lot of comfort and conviction that we can continue to deliver top-quartile S&P 500 dividend growth in the company well into the future, given the projects that we're executing, the cost of supply of those projects, and the free cash flow growth we're going to see coming out of the company. So it's quite sustainable and leaves us room to buy back some of our shares, which we're leaning into quite a bit right now.

是的，我還要補充一點，道格，你看——正如安迪所描述的那樣，考慮到盈虧平衡點的下降，這是可持續的。就我們分配給股東的現金流而言，股利占我們總現金流的比例較低。因此，鑑於我們正在執行的項目、這些項目的供應成本以及我們將看到的公司自由現金流增長，這應該能讓公司的股東和利益相關者感到非常安心和確信，我們可以在未來很長一段時間內繼續為公司帶來標普 500 指數前四分之一的股息增長。所以這種模式相當永續，也為我們留出了回購部分股票的空間，而我們目前正大力推動股票回購。

Bob Brackett, Bernstein Research.

Bob Brackett，伯恩斯坦研究公司。

Yes, good morning. As much as I'd love to ask a few questions on Willow, I'll change the topic a bit. And that is to talk about the 2026 guide at 0% to 2% and we've seen other large E&Ps and integrateds with similar sorts of guides in a backdrop where WTI is sitting below $60. So can you talk about what macro world you envision or which you plan for that we're going to see next year? And how does that inform that capital guide and production guide?

是的，早安。雖然我很想問一些關於Willow的問題，但我還是稍微換個話題吧。也就是說，2026 年的指導目標為 0% 至 2%，我們已經看到其他大型油氣勘探開發公司和綜合油氣公司也給出了類似的指導目標，而 WTI 原油價格卻低於 60 美元。那麼，您能否談談您設想的或計劃明年我們將看到的宏觀世界格局？那麼，這又如何影響資本指導方針和生產指導方針呢？

Yes, thanks, Bob. I think we like to say we have a lot of flexibility in the company. Production is kind of an output of our plans. We kind of set sort of a constant level-loaded scope within the Lower 48. Nick talked a lot about what that means for kind of the production growth we see coming out of that. Our view, the view of the macro is supportive. Again, we kind of set this at a $60 WTI. To your point, WTI is trading a little bit below $60 at this moment in time. Our call would be probably seeing some inventory builds. We saw some this last week. We'll see how it continues onshore in the OECD countries, but we probably see some downside pressure coming through the latter part of, the ending part of this year and into maybe the first part of next year.

是的，謝謝你，鮑伯。我想我們喜歡說公司有很大的彈性。生產是我們計畫的一種產出。我們大致設定了一個在美國本土48州內持續生效的定價策略。尼克詳細談到了這對我們即將看到的生產成長意味著什麼。我們的觀點，宏觀經濟的觀點，是支持這個觀點的。我們再次將目標價設定在每桶 60 美元的 WTI 原油價格。你說得對，目前WTI原油的交易價格略低於60美元。我們預計庫存將會增加。我們上週就看到一些這種情況。我們將觀察經合組織國家在岸上的情況如何，但我們可能會看到今年下半年到明年上半年出現一些下行壓力。

But that's why we have a balance sheet. That's why we have cash on the balance sheet. We want to continue to fund our programs. We came out with a 0% to 2%. We think that sort of makes a lot of sense with the macro that we're seeing today. But it also is informed by the medium and longer term, which we're quite constructive on today. Again, we see about 1 million barrels a day of demand growth not abating itself throughout this decade and well into the next decade. And we think there's going to be a call on crude and even a call on conventional crude, depending what you believe the unconventional supply coming out of the US is going to look like at these kinds of prices or even elevated prices.

但這就是我們為什麼需要資產負債表的原因。這就是為什麼我們的資產負債表上有現金的原因。我們希望繼續為我們的項目提供資金。我們得到的結果是 0% 到 2%。我們認為這與我們今天看到的宏觀經濟狀況非常吻合。但它也受到中長期因素的影響，而我們今天對中長期因素的看法相當積極。再次，我們看到，未來十年乃至下一個十年，每天約 100 萬桶的需求成長都不會減弱。我們認為原油價格將會上漲，甚至常規原油價格也會上漲，這取決於你認為在這種價格水準甚至高價位下，美國非常規原油的供應情況會如何。

So we see some modest growth in the unconventionals, continuing maybe flat to some slight growth into next year, depending on the price. But I think it sets up well to be a bit more reflective as we go into 2026, which is what we've tried to show with our 0% to 2%. But, remind everybody, we've got a lot of flexibility in the portfolio both ways.

因此，我們看到非常規油氣市場出現了一些溫和的成長，明年可能會保持平穩或略有成長，具體取決於價格。但我認為，隨著我們進入 2026 年，這將為更具反思性做好準備，這也是我們試圖透過 0% 到 2% 的目標來表明的。但要提醒大家，我們在投資組合方面有很大的彈性。

We have opportunities to reduce more CapEx should we think that's the need. We can use the balance sheet should we decide to do that. Then obviously we've got opportunities to ramp up on the other end as well. So we just think we have a lot of flexibility in the company, but I think this is a good place to start based on sort of how we view the near-term macro and where it's been developing.

如果我們認為有必要，我們有機會進一步減少資本支出。如果我們決定這樣做，我們可以使用資產負債表。顯然，我們在另一端也有機會擴大規模。所以我們認為公司擁有很大的彈性，但我認為，根據我們對近期宏觀經濟情勢及其發展方向的看法，這是一個很好的起點。

Jeoffrey Lambujon, Tudor Pickering Holt.

傑弗裡·蘭布瓊，都鐸·皮克林·霍爾特。

Good morning and thank you for taking my question. I'll bring it back to Willow if I could, and want to say I appreciate the detail earlier in the call that spoke to the breakdown there on the refreshed expectations. Can you also talk about the confidence level in the updated range and essentially what might be locked in from here? It'd be great to just get a sense for what flexibility there might be up or down, if things change enough over the course of the buildout or if the wider range that you have now captures the most likely scenarios in your view and it's more a function of where you end up within that range. Thanks.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。如果可以的話，我會把它帶回 Willow，我想說，我很感謝通話早些時候您詳細闡述了關於重新評估預期方面的問題。您能否也談談對更新後的價格區間的信心程度，以及從目前來看哪些價格區間可能最終會確定下來？如果在建造過程中情況發生足夠大的變化，或者您現在擁有的更廣泛的範圍已經涵蓋了您認為最可能的情況，那麼了解一下向上或向下的靈活性會有多大，而這更多地取決於您最終在這個範圍內的位置，那就太好了。謝謝。

Yes, good morning. Again, I would say we're winding back here a little bit. We recognize there was quite a bit of inflation coming out post-COVID over the couple years leading up to our taking FID in late 2023. And we were actually seeing that abate a bit in late 2023, which is why we took a view of just a couple percent. And we felt like, obviously, the monetary actions globally were going to knock that back a little bit.

是的，早安。我想說，我們又要稍微退後了。我們意識到，在新冠疫情後的幾年裡，也就是我們在 2023 年底做出最終決定之前的幾年裡，通貨膨脹已經相當嚴重。事實上，我們在 2023 年底看到這種情況有所緩解，所以我們才認為只會下降幾個百分點。我們當時覺得，很顯然，全球貨幣政策的調整會對此有一定的抑製作用。

And so, again, we took that view at the time. And this is just a really good time for us being roughly halfway through the project to reconcile what we've been seeing over the last couple of years. And as you know, across labor markets and engineered equipment, we've definitely seen some movement, which is much more on the average of 4.5% to 5%. And that's been actual and realized. You can certainly see the data yourself across the last couple of years.

所以，當時我們也持這種觀點。現在正是我們進行專案大約一半工作，總結過去幾年所見所聞的好時機。如您所知，在勞動市場和工程設備領域，我們確實看到了一些變化，平均變化幅度在 4.5% 到 5% 之間。而這已經成為現實。您當然可以自己查看過去幾年的數據。

Now sitting here today, we're seeing inflation rates abate a bit. We're starting to see inflation again in the 3%, 3.5%. But candidly, we're taking a view that this compounding inflation could, based on the contracts that we have tied to market indices, could continue in that 4% to 5% range. And so we've largely budgeted for that for the next three-plus years of the project, just to ensure that we're not falling back into prior assumptions in FID. I would say we've got a lot of confidence in the way we're putting this capital guide forward here at this time. Again, able to stand here in this position with that confidence because the team is executing just so well on the project.

現在看來，通貨膨脹率有所下降。我們又開始看到通貨膨脹，通膨率在 3% 到 3.5% 之間。但坦白說，根據我們與市場指數掛鉤的合約，我們認為這種複利通膨可能會繼續維持在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內。因此，我們已在專案未來三年多的時間裡為此做了大量的預算，以確保我們不會重蹈覆轍，回到最初在最終投資決策中所做的假設。我認為，我們對目前提出的這份資本指導方案非常有信心。再次強調，我之所以能夠如此自信地站在這裡，是因為團隊在專案執行上做得非常好。

We're not seeing schedule slip. We're not seeing other challenges, certainly the upward cost pressure. You’re not seeing -- we talk about scope discovery. This is really about inflation across the broader market, and we've taken a conservative view for the next couple of years. So yes, confidence in how we're pushing this out here today. And again, just pleased with how the project's moving forward and here for the next couple of years.

我們沒有看到進度延誤。我們目前沒有看到其他挑戰，當然也沒有看到成本上漲的壓力。你沒看到──我們討論的是範圍發現。這其實是關乎整個市場的通膨，我們對未來幾年都採取了保守的看法。是的，我對我們今天推廣這項計劃的方式充滿信心。再次強調，我對專案的進展非常滿意，而且這個專案將在未來幾年持續進行。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

Paul Cheng，加拿大豐業銀行。

Hey, guys. Good morning. Ryan, I think as you mentioned earlier that you think that there's a maybe increasing call on oil, even on the conventional. And when we're looking at over the past 10 years, I think you guys have drastically reduced your dependence on exploration because you have such a great profile in the Lower 48.

嘿，夥計們。早安.Ryan，我想正如你之前提到的，你認為對石油的需求可能會增加，即使是對傳統石油的需求也是如此。回顧過去 10 年，我認為你們已經大幅減少了對勘探的依賴，因為你們在美國本土 48 州擁有非常良好的市場地位。

And as the shale oil is maturing, how should we look at it? Will you think that you still have such a huge portfolio that you really don't need to increase your exploration effort and you can just rely on that on the shareholder to continue to increase your resource, your production? Or that you think the challenge on the longer term is really not that we need to start maybe increasing the effort given it's a long cycle business.

隨著頁岩油的成熟，我們該如何看待它？您是否認為您仍然擁有如此龐大的資產組合，因此您真的不需要加強勘探力度，只需依靠股東就能繼續增加資源和產量？或者你認為從長遠來看，真正的挑戰不在於我們需要加大投入，因為這是一個長週期產業。

No, thanks, Paul. I think you bring up -- I guess there's probably an industry-wide macro question around that. Are we investing enough industry-wide on the exploration side? And have we lost some of that muscle inside the industry for that end, large project execution for that matter? And there's probably a bit to that from the industry side.

不用了，謝謝，保羅。我認為你提出的問題——我想這可能是一個涉及整個行業的宏觀問題。我們在勘探方面的全行業投入是否足夠？我們是否因此在產業內部失去了一些實力，尤其是在大型專案執行方面？而從產業角度來看，這可能也有一定的道理。

Speaking specifically to our company, you're right. After kind of the early 2000 timeframe when we first got into the Eagle Ford and saw the -- grown our unconventional position inside the company and then really changed the portfolio pretty dramatically over the last number of years to really focus on those low cost of supply opportunities and resources that we now have captured inside the company. It has put a less reliance on exploration.

具體到我們公司而言，您說得對。大約在 2000 年初，我們首次進入 Eagle Ford 地區，並看到了——我們在公司內部發展了我們非傳統的地位，然後在過去幾年裡，我們確實對投資組合進行了相當大的改變，以真正專注於我們現在在公司內部獲得的那些低成本供應機會和資源。它減少了對勘探的依賴。

But I remind everybody, we continue to spend $200 to $300 million a year on exploration to continue to feed some of the legacy assets we have around the company. And years past, that's been in Malaysia, been in Norway. We've moved that around throughout the years, depending on some of the activity level and the opportunity set that we find. And we're doing it again next year because we're focusing most of that exploration probably up in Alaska to support the Willow development and get the company in a position to be able to feed that infrastructure that we're building out there for decades to come.

但我提醒大家，我們每年仍會花費 2 億至 3 億美元進行勘探，以繼續為公司現有的一些傳統資產提供資源。過去幾年，這種情況曾在馬來西亞和挪威發生。這些年來，我們根據一些活動水平和我們發現的機會，對這個職位進行了調整。明年我們將繼續這樣做，因為我們可能會將大部分勘探工作集中在阿拉斯加，以支持 Willow 項目的開發，並使公司能夠為我們在未來幾十年內建設的基礎設施提供資金。

So it's about a redirection of exploration. But we've been able to do that within that $200 to $300 million allocation inside the company. We just spud a well in the Otway Basin of Australia to try to find more gas that we can bring into Australia. So this is not just one area. We're appraising the discoveries that we had in Norway a year or so ago. So we are spending some of that money.

所以，這關乎探索方向的轉變。但是我們已經能夠在公司內部2億至3億美元的撥款範圍內做到這一點。我們剛在澳洲奧特威盆地開鑽一口井，希望能找到更多可以運往澳洲的天然氣。所以這不僅僅是一個領域。我們正在評估大約一年前在挪威取得的發現。所以我們正在花掉其中的一部分錢。

To date, it hasn't captured a higher capital allocation inside the company because we've been able to get everything we wanted to get done for that $200 to $300 million. But I think you're right. Macro-wise within the industry, you're seeing a lot more of that. We've just been blessed with a, we're a resource-rich company in a resource-starved world it looks like going forward. So I think we're uniquely positioned relative to many of our peers in the industry with having to consider significant ramp-ups in that capital allocation.

到目前為止，這筆投資還沒有在公司內部獲得更高的資本配置，因為我們用這 2 億到 3 億美元已經完成了我們想做的一切。但我認為你是對的。從產業宏觀層面來看，這種情況越來越普遍。我們很幸運，我們是一家資源豐富的公司，而未來世界似乎將面臨資源匱乏的局面。因此，我認為相對於業界許多同行而言，我們在考慮大幅增加資本配置方面具有獨特的優勢。

Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

查爾斯·米德，約翰遜·賴斯。

Good day to you, Ryan and Andy, and to the rest of the Conoco team there. I'd like to ask a big-picture question about your global LNG strategy. You guys make this distinction between resource LNG and commercial LNG. I'm wondering if you can talk about how those two -- how you think differently about those two pieces of the business, how they complement each other, and perhaps how they compete with each other.

Ryan、Andy以及Conoco團隊的其他成員，大家好。我想問一個關於貴公司全球液化天然氣策略的宏觀問題。你們區分了資源型液化天然氣和商業型液化天然氣。我想請您談談您對業務中這兩個部分的看法有何不同，它們如何相互補充，以及它們之間可能存在的競爭關係。

And maybe wrap into that, one could make the argument that with the amount of resource you guys have in the Lower 48 that, that make a distinction between resource LNG and commercial LNG is kind of a distinction without a difference, and maybe comment on whether that's a valid argument in your view.

或許可以進一步論證，鑑於美國本土48州擁有如此豐富的資源，區分資源型液化天然氣和商業型液化天然氣實際上並無本質差異。請您評論一下，在您看來，這種說法是否合理。

Hey, Charles. This is Andy. Yes, it's a great question and a big question as you say in terms of sort of comparing the two and how we think about them. So I'd probably go maybe back all the way to the beginning. We've been in the LNG business really since the 1960s. I think we were involved in basically sort of inventing this business. So we kind of know a thing or two about it. And we've traditionally sort of, until recent years, had what I would call the resource LNG, sort of the traditional LNG business, where it's been very much about finding a stranded gas asset.

嘿，查爾斯。這是安迪。是的，正如你所說，這是一個很好的問題，也是一個很大的問題，因為它涉及對這兩者進行比較以及我們如何看待它們。所以我可能會追溯到最初。我們從1960年代就開始涉足液化天然氣業務了。我認為我們基本上參與了這項業務的創立。所以我們對這方面略知一二。直到最近幾年，我們傳統上一直從事我稱為資源型液化天然氣（LNG）的業務，也就是傳統的液化天然氣業務，其重點在於尋找擱淺的天然氣資產。

And you find a gas asset, you find people who will buy the LNG, then you build the LNG facility. And off you go. That's kind of where this industry was for years, and we've been a big player in that with our Australia asset and our Qatar assets over the years. And that has served us really well. But as you fast forward to what's happening in the Lower 48, it's a little bit of a different model and you kind of started to touch on this where, you've got so much gas in the Lower 48 that you don't need to treat it like a facility-by-facility approach where you've got the stranded gas that you're trying to tie to one facility. So the whole model is different, effectively, in that you're trying to take this gas in the Lower 48. And our strategy is pretty simple, where we're trying to basically take what we think is low-cost of supply North American gas and get ourselves access to international pricing in TTF and JKM. And that's exactly what we're positioning ourselves to do.

你找到天然氣資產，找到願意購買液化天然氣的人，然後建造液化天然氣工廠。然後你就走了。多年來，這個行業一直處於這種狀態，而我們憑藉在澳洲和卡達的資產，多年來一直是這個行業的重要參與者。這對我們非常有幫助。但當你快轉到美國本土48州的情況時，你會發現這是一種略有不同的模式，你也開始談到這一點，因為美國本土48州擁有大量的天然氣，所以你不需要像對待單個設施那樣對待它，也就是把滯留在某個設施的天然氣連接到某個設施上。所以整個模式其實有所不同，因為你試圖在美國本土48州內取得這些天然氣。我們的策略很簡單，我們基本上是想利用我們認為成本較低的北美天然氣供應，並爭取 TTF 和 JKM 的國際價格。而這正是我們正在努力的方向。

We've made great progress in doing that with, as I talked about in the prepared remarks, the 5 MTPA at Port Arthur Phase 1 that we've now fully placed, and then we're now moving on to Port Arthur Phase 2 where we took four MTPA and another 1 MTPA at Rio Grande. So we're trying to basically get ourselves in a situation where we can basically convert Lower 48 gas into international pricing.

正如我在準備好的發言稿中提到的，我們在這方面取得了巨大進展，我們在阿瑟港一期工程中已全面完成了 5 百萬噸/年的裝機容量，現在我們正在推進阿瑟港二期工程，該工程我們完成了 4 百萬噸/年的裝機容量，並在格蘭德河又完成了 1 百萬噸/年的裝機容量。所以，我們基本上是想讓自己處於一種能夠將美國本土48州的汽油價格轉換為國際價格的狀態。

And what I would remind everybody is that we're also in a position where this is where this commercial strategy complements our business so well. We produce over 2 BCF a day in the Lower 48 and 2 BCF a day in round numbers is about 15 MTPA. So, it also works as a natural hedge to our Lower 48 gas exposure. Back to your first question, I don't really see them as the resource energy competing with, with what we're doing in the Lower 48. They're kind of different models, but we've certainly been able to learn from the resource LNG.

我想提醒大家的是，我們現在所處的位置正是這種商業策略與我們業務完美契合的地方。我們在美國本土48個州每天生產超過20億立方英尺的天然氣，20億立方英尺一天大約是1500萬噸/年。因此，它也可以作為我們應對美國本土48州天然氣風險的天然對沖手段。回到你的第一個問題，我並不認為它們會與我們在美國本土48州所做的事情構成資源能源競爭。它們是不同的模式，但我們肯定能夠從液化天然氣資源中學到很多東西。

And that's why we've been able to sort of implement the strategy we are doing, basically, where we're trying to control the entire value chain. And you only can do that with our global size and scale. And that's how we basically think we capture the economic rent. So hopefully, that helps sort of frame up how we think about the difference between the two. But it's not like an either-or choice for us. We think that they both serve a really important role and we're happy to be playing in both, as you can see, with NFE and NFS on the resource side and what we're doing on the commercial side with Port Arthur and the other announcements we've made today.

正因如此，我們才能實施我們正在實施的策略，即試圖控制整個價值鏈。只有憑藉我們全球的規模和實力才能做到這一點。這就是我們獲取經濟租金的基本方式。希望這有助於我們理解這兩者之間的差異。但對我們來說，這並不是一個非此即彼的選擇。我們認為它們都發揮著非常重要的作用，我們很高興能夠參與其中，正如你所看到的，我們在資源方面有 NFE 和 NFS，在商業方面有 Port Arthur 以及我們今天宣布的其他項目。

James West, Melius Research.

James West，Melius Research。

Hey, good morning, guys, or I guess close to good afternoon. I wanted to follow up on the LNG question. Obviously, the strategy is pretty clearly defined here. You had a lot of commercial movement during the quarter. You're at 10 MTPA now. I think you've said the past 10 to 15 is kind of a range. Are we at a point where maybe you pause and digest, or do you lean in and go up to that 15?

嘿，早上好，各位，或者說，差不多是下午好吧。我想就液化天然氣的問題進行後續討論。顯然，這裡的策略定義得非常明確。本季商業活動頻繁。你現在的產量是每年1000萬噸。我想你之前說過，過去 10 到 15 年是一個範圍。我們現在是不是應該停下來思考片刻，還是應該繼續深入，直到達到那15分？

I'd say, very briefly, our strategy remains unchanged. We're executing exactly what we said. The 10 to 15 MTPA is a size that we feel very comfortable about. It gives us the size that we want to be able to optimize our portfolio, be able to divert cargoes, as I mentioned in the prior question, be able to control really the value chain. I don't think anything's really changed there. The 10 to 15 is kind of what we're looking to fill out right now.

簡而言之，我們的策略保持不變。我們正在嚴格執行我們所說的一切。10 至 15 噸/年的產量是我們感覺非常合適的規模。它賦予我們所需的規模，使我們能夠優化投資組合，能夠轉移貨物，正如我在前一個問題中提到的那樣，能夠真正控制價值鏈。我覺得那裡的情況並沒有什麼實質的改變。我們現在想填補的空缺大概是 10 到 15 個。

And I think, James, it's also a function of not getting too much commitments on the front end. Make sure you can place it on the back end. So we're being deliberate about that. And we know if we get more opportunity for low liquefaction cost opportunities, we'll add more to the 10 million MTPA. But we've got to back it up with regas on the other end and have a plan for it. So we're being deliberate now that we've reached that 10 million tonne mark.

詹姆斯，我認為，這也與前期沒有太多承諾有關。確保可以把它放在後端。所以我們對此是經過深思熟慮的。我們知道，如果我們有更多低成本液化的機會，我們將把產能增加到每年 1,000 萬噸以上。但我們必須確保另一端有燃料補充，並且要為此制定計劃。既然我們已經達到了1000萬噸的里程碑，那麼我們現在就要更加謹慎行事了。

Kevin McCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

Kevin McCurdy，Pickering Energy Partners。

Hey, thank you guys for fitting me in. I want to come back to slide 7 for a moment on the incremental free cash flow. And I know that you've shown this before with the $4 billion of free cash flow from Willow, but I think that's quite an eye-catching number. And I was wondering if you could provide anything kind of high level on how you get there in terms of margins, productions, maintenance, CapEx in that first year, and also to ask if that's a fairly good number to use heading forward for Willow post-2029.

嘿，謝謝你們能抽出時間讓我加入。我想再回到第 7 張投影片，談談增量自由現金流。我知道你之前已經用 Willow 的 40 億美元自由現金流證明了這一點，但我認為這是一個相當引人注目的數字。我想請您大致介紹一下，在第一年的利潤率、產量、維護、資本支出等方面，您是如何實現這一目標的。另外，我還想問一下，這個數字對於 Willow 在 2029 年後的發展是否是一個相當合理的參考值。

Yes. Hi, Kevin. Good morning. This is Kirk. So certainly, as you saw in the waterfall and the details and the supplementals on Willow, you can really take it directly from that. So as we compare against what was a historical and expected spend here this year of just over $2 billion, as mentioned by Andy in the prepared remarks, we're expecting that here on the Willow Capital spend here this year. And then that moves down, plateaus for the next couple years.

是的。嗨，凱文。早安.這是柯克。所以，正如你在柳樹的瀑布、細節和補充部分所看到的，你確實可以直接從中汲取靈感。因此，正如安迪在準備好的演講稿中提到的，今年這裡的歷史預期支出略高於 20 億美元，我們預計 Willow Capital 今年在這裡的支出將達到這個數額。然後開始下降，並在接下來的幾年裡保持穩定。

And then on sustaining capital, post-first oil, we're expecting to spend roughly $0.5 billion in just continued development drilling for the Willow project. Obviously, we're starting pre-drill. We've got some pre-drill planned in 2027. And then that will extend. And that pre-drill is all baked within our total Willow project spend. But then post-first oil, that $0.5 billion.

在首次產油後，我們預計僅在 Willow 項目的持續開發鑽探方面就需要花費約 5 億美元來維持資金。顯然，我們現在要開始演練了。我們計劃在 2027 年進行一些預演。然後這種情況還會繼續下去。而所有預鑽孔費用都已包含在我們 Willow 專案的總支出中。但隨後，在首次產油後，那 0.5 億美元。

So in essence, what you're seeing is this inflection downward of capital from roughly $2 billion to an average of $0.5 billion first oil. And then at first oil, you're getting the CFO associated with, again, why we like Alaska. It's 100% oil sales. It's Brent premium. And again, that is the balance then of the $4 billion free cash flow improvement against a reduction of roughly $1.5 billion on CapEx.

所以本質上，你看到的是資本從大約 20 億美元下降到平均 5 億美元（首次石油開採）。然後，在第一次石油開採中，你會遇到與此相關的財務官，再次說明我們為什麼喜歡阿拉斯加。全部都是石油銷售。這是布蘭特原油的溢價。因此，40億美元的自由現金流改善與約15億美元的資本支出減少之間的平衡就是如此。

And I'll just remind Kevin that you see all the prices that that's assumed at $70 prices. We've given a sensitivity to that as well in the materials.

我還要提醒凱文，你看，所有價格都是以 70 美元的價格計算的。我們在材料中也考慮到了這一點。

Well, let me thank everybody for participating today. Just a few summary comments. We continue to execute well. We're improving our plan, and we're well positioned for a strong 2026, as evidenced by the new guidance we've provided today. And I'd say the team continues to find a lot of ways to enhance value and what we think is a differentiated investment thesis.

好的，讓我感謝今天所有參與的朋友。僅作幾句總結性評論。我們繼續保持良好的執行力。我們正在改進計劃，並且我們已經為2026年的強勁發展做好了充分準備，正如我們今天發布的新指導意見所證明的那樣。我認為團隊一直在不斷尋找提升價值的方法，以及我們認為的差異化投資理念。

We have an unmatched portfolio quality. We've got a leading Lower 48 inventory depth combined with attractive longer cycle investments in the LNG in Alaska that we've described today in quite a bit of detail. And we continue to have a strong track record of returns on and of our capital. And that's all leading to a sector-leading free cash flow growth profile that takes us all the way to the end of this decade. Thank you all for your interest in ConocoPhillips, and we appreciate the questions.

我們擁有無可比擬的投資組合品質。我們在美國本土48州擁有領先的庫存深度，同時在阿拉斯加的液化天然氣領域也有著極具吸引力的長期投資，我們今天已經對此進行了相當詳細的介紹。而且，我們的資本回報率一直保持良好記錄。而這一切都將帶來業界領先的自由現金流成長勢頭，並將持續到本十年末。感謝大家對康菲石油公司的關注，我們非常感謝大家提出的問題。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。