康菲 (COP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the first-quarter 2025 ConocoPhillips earnings conference call. My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加康菲石油公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫 Liz，今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。（操作員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Phil Gresh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Phil Gresh。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Liz. And welcome, everyone, to our first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Bill Bullock, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Andy O'Brien, Senior Vice President of Strategy, Commercial Sustainability, and Technology; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President, Lower 48; and Kirk Johnson, Senior Vice President of Global Operations.

謝謝你，莉茲。歡迎大家參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。參加今天電話會議的有康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾位成員，包括董事長兼執行長 Ryan Lance、執行副總裁兼財務長 Bill Bullock、策略、商業永續性和技術高級副總裁 Andy O'Brien、Lower 48 執行副總裁 Nick Olds 和全球營運高級副總裁 Kirk Johnson。

Ryan and Bill will kick off the call with opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions. For the Q&A, we will be taking one question per caller. A few quick reminders. First, along with today's release, we have published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation, which you can find on the Investor Relations website.

Ryan 和 Bill 將以開場白開始電話會議，之後團隊將回答您的問題。對於問答環節，我們將為每位來電者回答一個問題。一些快速提醒。首先，隨著今天的發布，我們還發布了補充財務資料和幻燈片演示，您可以在投資者關係網站上找到。

Second, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. And we will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to our nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release or on our website.

第二，在本次電話會議中，我們將根據目前的預期做出前瞻性陳述。由於今天的發布和我們定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。我們也會參考一些非公認會計準則的財務指標。與我們最接近的 GAAP 指標的對帳可以在今天的發布稿或我們的網站上找到。

With that, I will turn the call over to Ryan.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給瑞安 (Ryan)。

Thanks, Phil, and thank you to everyone for joining our first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Before we cover the details of our first-quarter results, some comments on the macro. Clearly, the current environment is marked by both uncertainty and volatility. Outlooks for global economic growth and oil demand have been revised lower. And on the supply side, OPEC+ is unwinding voluntary cuts quicker than expected. And as a result, oil prices have softened relative to the first quarter.

謝謝，菲爾，也謝謝大家參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。在我們介紹第一季業績的細節之前，先對宏觀情況發表一些評論。顯然，當前環境充滿不確定性和波動性。全球經濟成長和石油需求前景已被下調。在供應方面，OPEC+正在比預期更快地取消自願減產。因此，油價相對於第一季有所走軟。

However, the ultimate depth and duration of this current price environment remains unclear. And as I've said in the past, ConocoPhillips is built for this, with clear competitive advantages. We have a deep, durable, and diverse portfolio. We have decades of inventory below our $40 per barrel WTI cost-to-supply threshold, both in the US and internationally. And our advantaged US inventory position in particular should become increasingly evident as the market sorts through the inventory “Haves” and ”Have-Nots” in the current environment.

然而，當前價格環境的最終深度和持續時間仍不清楚。正如我過去所說，康菲石油公司就是為此而生的，具有明顯的競爭優勢。我們擁有深厚、持久且多樣化的產品組合。無論是在美國還是國際上，我們的庫存已有數十年低於每桶 40 美元的 WTI 供應成本門檻。隨著市場在當前環境下對庫存進行「有」和「無」的分類，我們在美國庫存方面的優勢地位將變得越來越明顯。

We believe we are the clear leader of the ”Haves,” and we have a disciplined capital allocation framework that is battle-tested through the cycles. In addition, our company is executing well. Our integration of Marathon Oil is progressing ahead of schedule, and we are finding additional opportunities to enhance capital efficiency and reduce costs across the entire organization, as reflected in our updated guidance, which includes about $0.5 billion reduction to our capital spending and a $200 million reduction in operating costs while keeping our production guidance unchanged.

我們相信，我們是「富人」群體中的領頭羊，我們擁有經過週期考驗的嚴謹的資本配置框架。此外，我們公司執行得很好。我們對馬拉松石油公司的整合正在提前進行，我們正在尋找更多機會來提高資本效率並降低整個組織的成本，正如我們更新的指導方針所反映的那樣，其中包括減少約 5 億美元的資本支出和 2 億美元的營運成本削減，同時保持我們的生產指導不變。

So we are delivering the same volume for less. Less capital and reduced operating costs. And we will keep working to further advance this plan as the year progresses. We'll also continue monitoring the macro environment. We have flexibility in our capital program we could exercise should conditions warrant. We've been here before, and we know how to manage through a more challenging environment.

因此，我們以更低的價格運送相同數量的貨物。更少的資本和更低的營運成本。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續努力進一步推進這項計劃。我們也將繼續監測宏觀環境。我們的資本計畫具有靈活性，可根據情況靈活運用。我們以前也經歷過這種情況，我們知道如何應對更具挑戰性的環境。

With respect to return of capital, we distributed $2.5 billion to shareholders in the first quarter. We believe our shares represent a very attractive investment at these prices, and we will continue returning a significant portion of our cash flow to our shareholders, consistent with our long-term track record of distributing 45% of our annual CFO.

關於資本回報，我們在第一季向股東分配了 25 億美元。我們相信，以這樣的價格，我們的股票代表著一項非常有吸引力的投資，而且我們將繼續把很大一部分現金流返還給股東，這與我們長期以來每年分配 45% 的 CFO 的記錄一致。

To close out my commentary, while I recognize the current focus is on the near-term macro uncertainties, we are playing the long game. I'll remind everyone that our fundamental long-term value proposition is truly differentiated. We have a deep, durable, and diverse portfolio with decades of high-quality, low cost of supply inventory to develop.

最後，雖然我承認當前的焦點是短期宏觀不確定性，但我們正在進行長期博弈。我要提醒大家，我們的基本長期價值主張才是真正與眾不同的。我們擁有深厚、持久且多樣化的產品組合，以及數十年高品質、低成本的供應庫存可供開發。

And we are on the cusp of a compelling multi-year free cash flow growth trajectory, led by our high-quality longer-cycle investments in Alaska and LNG. This underlying improvement in our free cash flow will structurally lower our breakeven and increase our capacity to return capital to shareholders.

我們正處於引人注目的多年自由現金流成長軌跡的邊緣，這主要得益於我們在阿拉斯加和液化天然氣領域的高品質長週期投資。我們自由現金流的根本改善將從結構上降低我們的損益平衡點，並提高我們向股東返還資本的能力。

Finally, you'll also have seen our announcement this morning that Bill Bullock has decided to retire after 39 years of service to the company, and that Andy O'Brien will take over as CFO. Bill has been an outstanding colleague and an integral part of our executive leadership team. I know you will all join me in congratulating Bill on an exemplary career and wishing him well in retirement.

最後，您還會看到我們今天早上發布的公告，比爾·布洛克 (Bill Bullock) 在為公司服務 39 年後決定退休，安迪·奧布萊恩 (Andy O'Brien) 將接任首席財務官。比爾是一位出色的同事，也是我們執行領導團隊不可或缺的一部分。我知道你們都會和我一起祝賀比爾的傑出職業生涯，並祝他退休後一切順利。

Now I'll hand it over to Bill for the last time to cover our first-quarter performance and 2025 guidance in more detail.

現在我將最後一次把話題交給比爾，讓他更詳細地介紹我們第一季的業績和 2025 年的指引。

Well, thanks, Ryan. Shifting to our first-quarter performance, as Ryan mentioned, we started 2025 with another quarter of strong execution across the portfolio. We produced 2,389,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding the high end of our production guidance for the quarter.

好吧，謝謝你，瑞安。談到我們第一季的業績，正如 Ryan 所提到的，我們在 2025 年伊始就在整個投資組合中又實現了強勁的執行。我們每天生產 2,389,000 桶油當量，超過了本季產量預期的上限。

And in Lower 48, production averaged 1,462,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with 816,000 in the Permian, 379,000 in the Eagle Ford, and 212,000 in the Bakken. Internationally, production continued to ramp up at Surmont Pad-267 in Canada and Nuna in Alaska. And we completed the largest winter construction season at Willow, achieving critical milestones.

在美國本土 48 個州，石油日產量平均為 1,462,000 桶，其中二疊紀盆地為 816,000 桶，鷹福特盆地為 379,000 桶，巴肯盆地為 212,000 桶。在國際上，加拿大 Surmont Pad-267 和阿拉斯加 Nuna 的產量持續增加。我們完成了 Willow 最大的冬季施工季節，並取得了關鍵的里程碑。

Regarding first-quarter financials, we generated $2.09 per share in adjusted earnings. First-quarter CFO was $5.5 billion, inclusive of $200 million of APLNG distributions. Operating working capital was a $650 million tailwind in the quarter, benefiting from the previously guided one-time cash tax benefit associated with the Marathon acquisition, as well as changes in accounts receivable and accounts payable. Capital expenditures were $3.4 billion.

關於第一季的財務狀況，我們的調整後每股收益為 2.09 美元。第一季的 CFO 為 55 億美元，其中包括 2 億美元的 APLNG 分配。本季營運資本為 6.5 億美元，受益於先前指導的與馬拉松收購相關的一次性現金稅收優惠，以及應收帳款和應付帳款的變化。資本支出為34億美元。

And on return of capital, we returned $2.5 billion to shareholders, including $1.5 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in ordinary dividends. That represents 45% of CFO returned in the quarter, consistent with our long-term track record. And we ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $7.5 billion plus $1 billion in long-term liquid investments.

在資本回報方面，我們向股東返還了 25 億美元，其中包括 15 億美元的回購和 10 億美元的普通股息。這意味著本季 45% 的 CFO 回歸，與我們的長期業績記錄一致。截至本季末，我們的現金和短期投資為 75 億美元，加上 10 億美元的長期流動投資。

Now turning to our outlook for the year, full-year production guidance remains unchanged. We still expect to deliver low single-digit production growth at this lower level of capital spending. For the second quarter, we expect production to be in a range of 2.34 million to 2.38 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, including approximately 40,000 barrels per day of planned turnarounds. We expect the second quarter to be our peak turnaround activity for the year, with a triennial turnaround at Ekofisk in Norway, and a turnaround at Qatar. Then third-quarter turnarounds should be around 25,000 barrels per day, primarily in Alaska. For capital, we now expect to spend between $12.3 billion and $12.6 billion for the full year, or about $0.5 billion lower than our prior guidance of approximately $12.9 billion. This is the result of continued capital efficiency improvements and plan optimization. Now second-quarter capital should be similar to the first quarter and then decline materially over the back half of the year.

現在回顧我們對今年的展望，全年生產預期保持不變。我們仍然預計，在較低的資本支出水準下，產量將實現低個位數成長。對於第二季度，我們預計產量將在每天 234 萬至 238 萬桶油當量之間，其中包括每天約 4 萬桶的計畫週轉量。我們預計第二季將是今年轉虧為盈的高峰期，其中挪威的 Ekofisk 將進行三年一次的扭虧為盈，卡達也將轉虧為盈。那麼第三季的產量應該在每天 25,000 桶左右，主要在阿拉斯加。對於資本，我們現在預計全年支出在 123 億美元至 126 億美元之間，比我們之前預測的約 129 億美元低約 5 億美元。這是持續提高資本效率和優化計劃的結果。現在第二季的資本應該與第一季相似，然後在下半年大幅下降。

On adjusted operating costs, we have lowered our guidance range by $200 million to $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion, primarily due to ongoing cost optimization efforts. We expect our full-year effective corporate tax rate to be a bit higher than prior guidance of 36% to 37% range, excluding one-time items, and this is due to geographic mix. We expect an effective cash tax rate to be roughly in line with book tax, which is a function of discrete items in the first quarter.

在調整後的營運成本方面，我們已將指導範圍下調 2 億美元，至 107 億美元至 109 億美元，這主要歸功於持續的成本優化工作。我們預計全年有效企業稅率將略高於先前預測的 36% 至 37% 的範圍（不包括一次性項目），這是由於地理分佈造成的。我們預計有效現金稅率將與帳面稅率大致一致，這是第一季離散項目的函數。

Now moving to cash flows, full-year APLNG distributions are now expected to be $800 million, primarily due to lower pricing. From a timing perspective, we expect the remaining $600 million of distributions for this year to be in the third quarter, with no APLNG distributions in the second or fourth quarter.

現在轉向現金流，預計全年 APLNG 分配額將達到 8 億美元，這主要是由於價格較低。從時間角度來看，我們預計今年剩餘的 6 億美元分配將在第三季進行，而第二季或第四季不會進行 APLNG 分配。

In terms of working capital, we expect a modest use of cash on a full-year basis. This includes an operating working capital outflow of $800 million in the second quarter related to normal timing of tax payments, as well as the unwinding of the $800 million investing working capital tailwind from the first quarter over the remainder of the year.

在營運資金方面，我們預計全年現金使用量將適中。其中包括第二季與正常納稅時間有關的 8 億美元營運資本流出，以及今年剩餘時間內第一季 8 億美元投資營運資本順風的消散。

So to wrap up, ConocoPhillips had a strong start to 2025. The teams executed well operationally. We continue to improve our plan and deliver on our strategic initiatives across our deep, durable, and diverse portfolio. And amid a more volatile macro environment, we remain focused on delivering competitive returns on and of capital to our shareholders while maintaining our A-rated balance sheet. And our long-term value proposition remains compelling with a differentiated free cash flow growth trajectory and the strongest Lower 48 inventory position of any operator.

總而言之，康菲石油公司在 2025 年取得了良好的開端。團隊的運作表現良好。我們將繼續改進我們的計劃，並在我們深度、持久和多樣化的產品組合中實施我們的策略性舉措。在更動盪的宏觀環境中，我們仍然專注於為股東提供有競爭力的資本回報，同時保持 A 級資產負債表。我們的長期價值主張仍然具有吸引力，擁有差異化的自由現金流成長軌跡和所有營運商中最強勁的 48 個美國本土庫存狀況。

That concludes our prepared remarks. I'll now turn it over to the operator to start the Q&A.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。現在我將把時間交給操作員開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的 Neil Mehta。

Hey, good morning, Ryan and team. And Bill, thanks for everything. Congratulations to you. 39 years is incredible. And Andy, congratulations to you as well. In your honor, Bill, let's ask a return-of-capital question and a cash flow question, which is you guys had $2.5 billion of capital return in the first quarter. You're very much tracking towards the $10 billion number. We're obviously in a softer commodity macro than we were in the first quarter. But do you still view the $10 billion as an attainable number? And given the fact that you acknowledge the stock is undervalued, would you be willing to take on debt in order to support the shrinking of the share count?

嘿，早上好，瑞安和團隊。還有比爾，謝謝你所做的一切。祝賀你。 39 年真是不可思議。安迪，我也祝賀你。比爾，為了你的榮譽，讓我們問一個關於資本回報和現金流的問題，也就是說，你們在第一季度獲得了 25 億美元的資本回報。您正朝著 100 億美元這個數字邁進。顯然，與第一季相比，我們目前所處的大宗商品宏觀環境更為疲軟。但您仍然認為 100 億美元是一個可以實現的數字嗎？鑑於您承認股票被低估，您是否願意承擔債務以支持股票數量的減少？

Yes, let me take that one, Neil, and thanks for the shout out for Bill. He's been an integral part of our team and with me for a long period, so I thank him a lot for all his support. Yes, we'll step back for a minute, Neil, just a little bit. Our CFO-based distribution framework has been unchanged for a number of years. And you correctly pointed out in the first quarter and for the last number of years, multi-year history, we've been in the mid-40%, or as I said in my commentary, the 45% return of capital back to our shareholders.

是的，尼爾，讓我來接手這個任務，謝謝你對比爾的支持。他是我們團隊不可或缺的一部分，並且長期陪伴著我，所以我非常感謝他的所有支持。是的，尼爾，我們稍微退後一步，就那麼一點點。我們以財務長為基礎的分配框架多年來一直沒有改變。您正確地指出，在第一季以及過去幾年中，我們的股東回報率一直處於 40% 左右，或者正如我在評論中所說，是 45%。

And we've been able to sustain that because of really the quality, the depth, the duration of the portfolio, the low cost of supply nature of that, the depth of that inventory, and the duration that we have as well has allowed us to sustain that. And all the while, we've been investing for future growth of our CFO and our free cash flow, as we've talked about with the projects that are coming on. And I think, or we think, that's unmatched by any other E&P in this business. So the future looks very, very bright for the company, too.

我們之所以能夠維持這種狀況，是因為我們的產品組合的品質、深度和持續時間、低供應成本、庫存的深度以及持續時間使我們能夠維持這種狀況。同時，我們一直在為財務長的未來成長和自由現金流進行投資，正如我們在即將開展的專案中所討論的那樣。我認為，或者我們認為，這是該行業中任何其他 E&P 公司都無法比擬的。因此，該公司的前景也十分光明。

Now as we assess our CFO, which then leads to distributions each quarter for the year, I think a great place to start is assuming that 45% or mid-40% distribution against that CFO. And that's what we've been counting on. And as you've indicated, we have cash on the balance sheet, so we're willing to use some of that if we need to, as we go through the course of the year.

現在，當我們評估我們的財務長時，這將導致每年每個季度的分配，我認為一個很好的起點是假設針對該財務長的分配為 45％ 或 40％ 中間。這正是我們一直期望的。正如您所說，我們的資產負債表上有現金，因此，如果需要，我們願意在全年使用其中的一部分。

Now what does this mean for the second quarter? We still think we ought to be buying our shares, and we're doing that. But as we kind of go into the second quarter, reflective of where the macro is at, too, it probably represents a couple hundred million reduction in the second quarter relative to the first quarter. And we're still looking to see where commodity prices are going and what it means for the third and fourth quarter. And we'll deal with those as we see the course of the year play out.

這對第二季度意味著什麼？我們仍然認為我們應該購買我們的股票，而且我們也正在這樣做。但隨著我們進入第二季度，反映宏觀經濟的狀況，第二季度可能相對於第一季減少了數億美元。我們仍在關注大宗商品價格的走勢以及這對第三季和第四季意味著什麼。我們將根據今年的進程來處理這些問題。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的戴文麥克德莫特。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question and I echo the congrats, Bill, to you; and Andy, to you as well. I wanted to ask on the capital side. So it looks like the reduction in this year's budget is largely efficiency driven. We'd love to get a little bit more detail on the drivers.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題，比爾，我同樣祝賀您；安迪，也祝賀您。我想從資本方面詢問。因此看起來今年預算的削減主要是出於效率考量。我們希望獲得有關驅動程式的更多詳細資訊。

Kind of stepping back, I think over the years, you've been very consistent about the strategy of investing through the cycle to maximize returns. Ryan, in your remarks, you mentioned flexibility in the program if needed. So I'd love to hear you just elaborate on how you're thinking about that flexibility and at what price levels or macro conditions you might utilize it.

退一步來說，我認為多年來，您一直堅持透過週期投資來實現最大回報的策略。瑞安，在您的發言中，您提到瞭如果需要的話該計劃可以具有靈活性。因此，我很想聽聽您詳細說明您如何看待這種靈活性，以及​​您可以在什麼價格水平或宏觀條件下利用它。

Hi, Devin. This is Andy. I can start with that one. As you pointed out, we have reduced the capital this year to a range of $12.3 billion to $12.6 billion. So that's about a $0.5 billion reduction. And it really is a combination of capital efficiency improvements across the portfolio and then plan optimization. The capital reduction, it does not include any material changes to the scope in the Lower 48 versus our prior guidance. As you saw, it didn't have any real impact on our production guidance for the full year.

你好，德文。這是安迪。我可以從那個開始。正如您所指出的，我們今年已將資本降至123億美元至126億美元之間。因此減少了約 5 億美元。它實際上是整個投資組合的資本效率改進和計劃優化的結合。與我們先前的指導相比，此次資本削減並不包括對美國本土 48 個州範圍的任何重大變化。正如您所看到的，它對我們全年的生產指導沒有任何實際影響。

It's also probably also worth pointing out that already within our guidance on the last quarter and again now, we've been factoring in a drop in activity in the Lower 48 as we get Marathon onto a steady-state program, and that remains unchanged. The way we think about it is we've got a global portfolio, and the first thing we obviously do is we look everywhere to see where we can defer some discretionary capital that doesn't impact production. That's effectively what we've done here.

也許還值得指出的是，在我們對上一季和現在的指導中，我們已經考慮到美國本土 48 個州的活動會下降，因為我們正在讓馬拉松進入穩定狀態計劃，這一點保持不變。我們的想法是，我們有一個全球投資組合，我們顯然要做的第一件事就是到處尋找可以推遲一些不影響生產的自由支配資本的地方。這實際上就是我們在這裡所做的。

I think, as we're doing this, we also shouldn't lose sight of the trend we're on. We're finding ways to deliver the same level of production for less capital and less operating costs. So we kind of think we're taking a pretty measured approach here. We want to take our time to better understand any potential depth or duration of any ongoing commodity price weakness.

我認為，當我們這樣做的時候，我們也不應該忽視我們所處的趨勢。我們正在尋找以更少的資本和更低的營運成本實現相同生產水準的方法。因此我們認為我們在這裡採取了相當慎重的方法。我們希望花些時間來更好地了解任何大宗商品價格持續疲軟的潛在深度或持續時間。

Before we determine if we really need to make any changes to our program, I would say we haven't really changed any scope of note. For us, we're really just going to continue to focus on maximizing our returns on capital through the cycle, leave it down, as I say. At this point, for us, it's just a measured approach to see where things are going.

在我們確定是否真的需要對我們的程式進行任何更改之前，我想說我們實際上並沒有改變任何值得注意的範圍。對我們來說，我們實際上只是會繼續專注於在整個週期中最大化資本回報率，就像我說的，把它放下來。目前，對我們來說，這只是一種衡量方法來觀察事情的發展方向。

Stephen Richardson, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬理查森 (Stephen Richardson)，Evercore ISI。

Hi, good morning. Ryan, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about your current views on cost structure and opportunity for further employment improvement. I think you've started the year well with the $200 million reduction. One of the themes this quarter in the industry has been kind of resource maturity, and appreciate your comments about the depth of your inventory, particularly in the Lower 48. But I'm wondering if you could talk about kind of as the industry matures, as Conoco's business kind of matures, how do you think about the overall cost structure and where to go from here considering all the macro considerations you talked about?

嗨，早安。瑞安，我想知道您是否可以談談您對成本結構和進一步改善就業機會的當前看法。我認為，透過削減 2 億美元，你們今年的開局很好。本季產業的主題之一是資源成熟度，感謝您對庫存深度的評論，特別是在美國本土 48 個州的庫存深度。但我想知道您是否可以談談，隨著行業的成熟，隨著康菲業務的成熟，考慮到您談到的所有宏觀考慮，您如何看待整體成本結構以及未來的發展方向？

Yes, thanks, Steve. I think it's a part of our DNA. We're constantly looking at the costs, and we benchmark both our operations and our G&A across the whole world pretty constantly. We're looking at across the fence line to our fence line neighbors, making sure that we're not disadvantaged in any way, shape, or form.

是的，謝謝，史蒂夫。我認為這是我們 DNA 的一部分。我們不斷關注成本，並持續對我們的全球營運和一般及行政費用進行基準測試。我們正在關注柵欄線對面的鄰居，確保我們不會在任何方面受到不利影響。

I think it's just something that's built into us. We've had the opportunity now with the Marathon transaction to step back and take a look at the company, what we're doing in the center, what we're doing in the business units. We're just trying to drive that efficiency across the whole organization just to maintain our competitive edge and maintain the competitive nature.

我認為這是我們與生俱來的東西。透過馬拉松交易，我們現在有機會回顧公司，看看我們在中心做什麼，我們在業務部門做什麼。我們只是試圖提高整個組織的效率，以保持我們的競爭優勢和競爭性質。

Just watch us every quarter. We're focused on continuing to get better, and these kinds of environments just make that all the more important. But it needs to be a constant thing that you do as part of your -- just running a company like this in a volatile macro.

每季都關注我們。我們專注於不斷進步，而這樣的環境使得這一點變得更加重要。但它需要成為你工作中一個持續不斷的事情——在動盪的宏觀環境下經營這樣的公司。

Arun Jayaram, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的阿倫·賈亞拉姆（Arun Jayaram）。

Good morning, Ryan and team. Ryan, we've seen a modest activity reduction from several of your E&P peers, yet Conoco looks to be staying put in terms of your 2025 plans. I guess my question is, you've built Conoco with a low cost of supply in your core basins, and how do you think about balancing this low cost of supply with the macro as well as perhaps preserving precious inventory, particularly in the Lower 48?

早上好，Ryan 和團隊。瑞安，我們看到你們幾家勘探與生產同行的活動略有減少，但康菲公司的 2025 年計畫似乎保持不變。我的問題是，你們在核心盆地建立了供應成本較低的康菲石油公司，您如何考慮平衡這種低成本供應與宏觀經濟，以及如何保留寶貴的庫存，特別是在美國本土 48 個州？

Yes, I can let Andy jump into a little bit here, but yes, I think it's right. Low cost of supply wins in this business, so we're trying to drive that as much as we can in our entire inventory, and I think we've gotten ourselves to a pretty great place with the depth of the inventory and the duration. And now it's just, how do you affect that program and drive the best returns on the capital that you're investing in the business? And then I can let Andy sort of provide a little bit more about how we think about that as we execute our programs.

是的，我可以讓安迪在這裡稍微插話一下，但是是的，我認為這是對的。低成本供應是這項業務的致勝法寶，因此我們正嘗試在整個庫存中盡可能地推動低成本供應，我認為，就庫存深度和持續時間而言，我們已經達到了相當不錯的水平。現在的問題是，您如何影響該計劃並獲得您在業務中投資的資本的最佳回報？然後我可以讓安迪提供更多關於我們在執行程式時如何考慮這個問題的資訊。

Yes, thanks, Ryan. And Arun, as Ryan said, we've got that decades of low cost of supply inventory, and it's actually times like this where it's been our relentless focus on low cost of supply. We've been talking about this for years now. Sometimes in a higher-priced environment, it doesn't get quite the same focus externally, but we've remained laser-focused on it.

是的，謝謝，瑞安。阿倫，正如瑞安所說，我們已經擁有了幾十年的低成本供應庫存，實際上，正是在這樣的時刻，我們堅持不懈地專注於低成本供應。我們已經談論這個問題好幾年了。有時在價格較高的環境中，它不會受到外界同樣的關注，但我們仍然會高度關注它。

We invest in projects that generate 10% returns in a $40 world. It's one of the central tenants to our resiliency. I'd say we're not looking to try and time the market with our capital investments. And where we're sitting right now with oil prices, they're actually not that far from our mid-cycle price. What history has taught us is that we really value our steady-state program. And when we look back on times like this, these are the times where you get a great opportunity to capture lower capital costs and operating costs. So that's the way we think about it.

我們投資在 40 美元的世界裡能產生 10% 回報的項目。這是我們韌性的核心之一。我想說的是，我們並不想利用資本投資來嘗試掌握市場時機。就目前的油價而言，它實際上距離我們的中期價格並不遠。歷史告訴我們，我們確實重視我們的穩定狀態計畫。當我們回顧這樣的時刻時，我們會發現這正是降低資本成本和營運成本的絕佳機會。這就是我們的想法。

But we're also fully aware that the market's not calling us to grow anything like 4% to 5%, like we did last year. And remember, we've adjusted our plan. Our plan this year is for low single-digit production growth, significantly lower than last year. The way I would sum it up is that we just remain very focused on delivering the returns on free cash flow, and production just remains an output of our plan.

但我們也充分意識到，市場並不要求我們像去年一樣達到 4% 到 5% 的成長。請記住，我們已經調整了計劃。我們今年的計畫是低個位數產量成長，明顯低於去年。我總結一下就是，我們仍然非常注重實現自由現金流的回報，而生產只是我們計畫的產出。

I would finish that, Arun, with, look, the people that can do this are the ones that have the kind of inventory that we do. We mentioned the “Haves” and the “Have-nots in our opening comments. Companies like ours, with the kind of inventory we have, have this optionality in terms of how we execute our programs. And as long as we're driving returns on and of capital, that's our North Star. That's what's driving it. As Andy said, the production growth is really an output. The real driver is cash flow and free cash flow growth.

阿倫，我想結束這一點，你看，能夠做到這一點的人就是那些擁有我們這種庫存的人。我們在開場白中提到了「富人」和「窮人」。像我們這樣的公司，擁有這樣的庫存，在如何執行我們的計劃方面有這種選擇權。只要我們推動資本回報，這就是我們的北極星。這就是推動它的原因。正如安迪所說，產量成長實際上是一種產出。真正的驅動力是現金流和自由現金流的成長。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for having me on. And Bill, it's been a lot of fun. And Andy, it wouldn't be an inaugural call as the pending CFO if I didn't ask you about breakeven. So I'm going to try that, if I may. It's really a clarification question on the $450 million reduction. Is this coming out of growth capital in terms of doing things more efficiently? Or is it coming out of, I guess, what you would call base capital for maintaining the business? In other words, has the sustaining capital also been reset by almost $0.5 billion, and if so, what does that do to your break-even? And I will leave it there, thank you.

大家早安。謝謝你邀請我。比爾，這很有趣。安迪，如果我沒有問你關於損益兩平的問題，那麼身為即將上任的財務長，這就不能算是我的首次通話了。所以如果可以的話，我會試試看。這實際上是一個有關 4.5 億美元削減的澄清問題。從更有效率的做事方式來看，這是否反映在成長資本上？或者我猜，它是從你所說的維持業務的基礎資本中支出的？換句話說，維持資本是否也被重置了近 5 億美元，如果是這樣，這對您的損益兩平有何影響？我就把它留在那裡，謝謝。

Yes, thanks, Doug. A couple of threads there to sort of weave together. So I think as I said earlier, the capital reduction of $0.5 billion is really coming out of a combination of things in terms of where we can simply defer things that are not adding production this year, with basically a very negligible impact next year. There's also the -- when we go through the prices coming down, we're starting to see some capture of deflation.

是的，謝謝，道格。有幾根線可以編織在一起。因此我認為，正如我之前所說，5 億美元的資本削減實際上是多種因素共同作用的結果，我們可以簡單地推遲那些今年不會增加產量的項目，而對明年的影響基本上可以忽略不計。還有——當我們經歷價格下降時，我們開始看到通貨緊縮的跡象。

So we always say when we talk about breakevens, it does give a bit of a hypothetical conversation. Because as price goes down, we would expect some deflation. So I'd say it's a mix of things, where we're seeing where we can do things cheaper, and we're basically making sure that where we can push scope out, where it doesn't have any impact on our production, where we're not really playing with rigs and frac crews, we're going to do that.

因此，我們總是說，當我們談論損益平衡時，它確實會給出一些假設性的對話。因為隨著價格下降，我們預期會出現通貨緊縮。所以我想說，這是一個混合因素，我們看到我們可以在哪些方面做得更便宜，我們基本上確保我們可以在哪些方面擴大範圍，在哪些方面不會對我們的生產產生任何影響，在哪些方面我們不會真正使用鑽機和壓裂隊，我們會這樣做。

So yes, over time, it reduces our breakeven. To put it quite clearly, where we are with our breakeven, this year, our free cash flow breakeven is in the mid-40s, and the dividend would add about $10 to that. Really importantly, that includes all of the pre-productive capex that we've got going on our major projects, which is about $7 dollars. As you look through this year and going forward, we talk about our free cash flow inflection. This is exactly where you'll start to see it with our breakeven coming down into the low 30s as we start to basically reduce the capital, and we see the projects coming on.

是的，隨著時間的推移，它會降低我們的損益平衡點。說得更清楚些，今年我們的損益平衡點是，我們的自由現金流損益平衡點在 40 多美元，股利將增加約 10 美元。真正重要的是，這包括我們在主要項目上進行的所有生產前資本支出，約為 7 美元。回顧今年以及未來，我們將討論自由現金流的變化。這正是您開始看到的地方，隨著我們開始基本減少資本，我們的損益平衡點降至 30% 以下，我們看到專案正在推進。

Nitin Kumar, Mizuho.

瑞穗的尼廷‧庫馬爾 (Nitin Kumar)。

Hi, good afternoon, guys. And Bill, congratulations on the retirement. Maybe I'll take it away from the macro for a minute and talk about your long-cycle projects. You mentioned that you hit some critical milestones at Willow. I'd love to hear a little bit more about that. And then I think the spending in Alaska was just north of $1 billion this year or this quarter. How can we look forward to trend over the next few quarters as you get into the later phases of that project?

大家下午好。比爾，恭喜你退休。也許我會暫時離開宏觀話題，談談你的長週期專案。您提到您在 Willow 取得了一些重要的里程碑。我很想聽到更多關於這方面的資訊。我認為今年或本季在阿拉斯加的支出略高於 10 億美元。當進入該專案的後期階段時，我們如何展望未來幾季的趨勢？

Hi, Nitin. This is Kirk. I can take that one. Certainly, as you're pointing to with your question, execution here in first quarter on our Willow project was very important, and the project team delivered the key milestones that were required to ensure that this project remains on track, fully in support of first oil in 2029.

你好，尼廷。這是柯克。我可以接受那個。當然，正如您在問題中提到的那樣，我們 Willow 專案在第一季的執行非常重要，專案團隊實現了確保專案保持正軌所需的關鍵里程碑，全力支持 2029 年的第一批石油開採。

We saw really good progress up there. We ramped to roughly 2,400 people on the North Slope, which again reaffirms that this was our peak winter construction season. And again, a little bit of kudos to the folks up there. Really strong safety performance. We saw some really strong efficiencies in a broad span of work across those activities.

我們在那裡看到了非常好的進展。北坡的施工人員數量已增加至約 2,400 人，這再次證明這是我們冬季施工的高峰期。再次向上面的人們致以崇高的敬意。安全性能確實強。我們在這些活動的廣泛工作中看到了一些非常強大的效率。

So on that winter construction, we're now roughly 50%, if not slightly better, on completion of all of our civil scopes. So when you hear that, think roads, pads, bridges, and we've got about 80 miles of pipeline installed. And very importantly, we executed a horizontal directional drill underneath one of the key waterways and that allows us to connect east-west pipelines. Again, continued build out of that infrastructure.

因此，在冬季施工中，我們所有的土木工程範圍的完成率現在約為 50%，甚至略有提高。所以當你聽到這個消息時，想想道路、墊塊、橋樑，我們已經安裝了大約 80 英里的管道。非常重要的是，我們在一條主要水道下方進行了水平定向鑽探，這使我們能夠連接東西向管道。再次，繼續建設該基礎設施。

And as you've heard from me before, really critical this year as well was that operations center pad. So those modules that we sea-lifted up there here last year, those are now set on the pad. We opened our Willow Construction Camp, and that becomes important because it allows us to begin construction work on the North Slope a bit more throughout the year as opposed to being completely confined to the winter season.

正如您之前聽到的，今年真正重要的是營運中心平台。所以我們去年從海上運來的那些模組現在已經安裝在發射台上了。我們開設了柳樹建設營地，這一點很重要，因為它使我們能夠在全年更多地開始北坡的建設工作，而不是完全局限於冬季。

And then outside of Alaska, engineering, fabrication on our processing modules, that continues to go well. And then, of course, key for us here this year being our second major season on this project is procurement activities and sourcing activities. And so we do expect to source and receive a bulk of the engineered equipment that's required to procure, again, for those process modules as well as all this forward-looking work that we have on the slope. And so here by year end, we'll have 90% to 95% of that work sourced, and that brings even more certainty, just to understanding how this will continue to play out for us in a positive way. So again, peak capital, we guided you a bit to about a third of total spend here this year will be in the first three to four months of this year. We're seeing that actualized for us, and so we expect capital to continue to taper down through the remainder of the year.

在阿拉斯加以外，我們的處理模組的工程和製造工作繼續進展順利。當然，今年是我們進行此專案的第二個主要季節，對我們來說，關鍵是採購活動和採購活動。因此，我們確實希望採購並獲得大量需要採購的工程設備，用於這些工藝組件以及我們在斜坡上進行的所有前瞻性工作。因此，到今年年底，我們將完成 90% 到 95% 的工作，這將帶來更多的確定性，讓我們了解這將如何繼續對我們產生積極的影響。因此，再次強調，高峰資本，我們稍微指導一下，今年總支出的約三分之一將在今年前三到四個月進行。我們看到這一情況正在成為現實，因此我們預計今年剩餘時間內資本將繼續減少。

Lloyd Byrne, Jefferies.

勞埃德·伯恩（Lloyd Byrne），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

Hey, good afternoon, everybody. And Bill, congratulations and thank you for all your help over the years. Ryan, you talked a lot about what separates Conoco and the advantages you have going forward, including all the free cash you have coming. So would you use your balance sheet and your asset sales and lean in a little bit on going above that 45% return to shareholders going forward? Thanks.

嘿，大家下午好。比爾，恭喜你，感謝你多年來的幫助。瑞安，你談了很多關於康菲公司的獨特之處以及未來的優勢，包括你們獲得的所有免費現金。那麼，您是否會利用您的資產負債表和資產銷售，並在未來稍微傾向於實現超過 45% 的股東回報率？謝謝。

Well, I think, Lloyd, I was trying to guide to sort of the 45%, feels about right for where we are in the cycle. Obviously, at these kind of commodity prices, if you think about it, it may require a little bit of use of cash on the balance sheet. But as Bill described in his opening remarks, we stand in a pretty good shape. We think buying our shares makes sense right now. We're not going to drop off that at all.

好吧，勞埃德，我想，我試圖引導到 45% 左右，感覺對於我們所處的周期位置來說是正確的。顯然，在這種商品價格下，如果你考慮一下，可能需要在資產負債表上使用一點現金。但正如比爾在開場白中所描述的那樣，我們的狀況相當良好。我們認為現在購買我們的股票是有意義的。我們絕不會放棄這一點。

And, a small factoid, in the last four to five months, we've bought nearly 20% of the Marathon shares back in. So, we think that's important, and we know that returns of capital are important. But I would probably anchor on the mid-45% of our CFO. And that may have some impact on net debt, but we're not intending to borrow gross debt to do this.

另外，還有一點小事實，在過去的四到五個月裡，我們又買回了近 20% 的馬拉松股票。因此，我們認為這很重要，而且我們知道資本回報很重要。但我可能會將重點放在我們 CFO 的 45% 中間部分。這可能會對淨債務產生一定影響，但我們並不打算借入總債務來實現這一點。

Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Scott Hanold。

Yes, thanks. Congrats, Bill and Andy. And Bill, wish you well in your future endeavors. My question -- and look, I don't want to belabor this sort of macro kind of question and what does Conoco do, but I'm going to try a bit of a different angle at it. And Ryan, you talked about the haves and have-nots where Conoco is advantaged.

是的，謝謝。恭喜比爾和安迪。比爾，祝你未來一切順利。我的問題是——瞧，我不想詳細討論這種宏觀問題以及康菲公司是做什麼的，但我將嘗試從不同的角度來探討這個問題。瑞安，您談到了康菲公司在富人和窮人中佔據優勢的情況。

But if we do have a weaker macro environment, what do you think should happen in the industry? Should it be companies with higher cost of supply should be the first to cut and companies like Conoco show a little bit more resilience? Or do larger companies like Conoco need to take a leadership role in making some of the first cuts?

但如果我們確實面臨宏觀環境較弱的情況，您認為產業會發生什麼情況？是否應該由供應成本較高的公司率先減產，而康菲等公司則應表現出更強的韌性？或者像康菲這樣的大公司是否需要在率先採取削減措施方面發揮領導作用？

Well, I think it's a great question, Scott. Obviously, the folks that don't have the kind of cost of supply sitting in their portfolio are going to find themselves cash-strapped and returns-strapped. Obviously, the balance sheets are in pretty good shape across the industry, better than we were in the last downturn, but you'll see a lot of activity cut back. Presumably, what you're talking about is a price outlook that is well below $60s, so into the $50s or the low $50s.

嗯，我認為這是一個很好的問題，斯科特。顯然，那些投資組合中沒有這種供應成本的人將會發現自己資金緊張，回報也緊張。顯然，整個產業的資產負債表狀況良好，比上次經濟衰退時要好，但你會看到很多活動減少。據推測，您所談論的價格前景遠低於 60 美元，即 50 美元或 50 美元出頭。

I think you'll see, even some of the larger companies -- I think if we found ourselves thinking that the remainder of the year was going to be in the low $50s, we would be looking probably at additional scope kinds of opportunities within our company, too. But again, we have to assess whether we think that's going to be here for a quarter or a month or two months, or is that kind of the new normal and lower-for-longer kind of view of this.

我想你會看到，即使是一些較大的公司——我想，如果我們發現自己認為今年剩餘時間的利潤將在 50 美元出頭，我們也可能會在公司內部尋找其他範圍的機會。但同樣，我們必須評估這種情況是否會持續一個季度、一個月或兩個月，或者這是否是一種新的常態和長期低迷的觀點。

I go back to kind of our prevailing view of the macro, and that is, while demand has come off a little bit from our current think of 1 million barrels a day, it's still -- our view in '25 is probably 8 million barrels -- or 0.8 million barrels of additional demand growth in 2025, and that's not stopping. And yeah, OPEC is doing their thing to put some softness in the market, but we might remind people, $60 is pretty close to our mid-cycle planning price.

我回到我們對宏觀的普遍看法，那就是，雖然需求已經從我們目前認為的每天 100 萬桶略有下降，但我們認為 2025 年的需求增長可能為 800 萬桶——或者 2025 年需求增長 80 萬桶，而且這種增長不會停止。是的，石油輸出國組織正在採取其措施來軟化市場，但我們可能會提醒人們，60 美元非常接近我們的中期計畫價格。

So you shouldn't expect a lot of things to change out of our company at these kinds of prices because we're built for it, we can handle the volatility, got a great balance sheet, we know we're executing low cost of supply, we're delivering the efficiencies that Andy and Nick are driving and what Kirk talked about in the operating side of the business, and so we're really focused on doing that.

因此，您不應該期望在這樣的價格下我們公司會發生很多變化，因為我們就是為此而生的，我們可以應對波動，擁有出色的資產負債表，我們知道我們正在執行低成本的供應，我們正在實現安迪和尼克所推動的效率以及柯克在業務運營方面所談到的效率，因此我們真正專注於做到這一點。

Would we have to look at potentially doing something different at $50? Sure, we would. But that's not our view today and doesn't represent where we think the market is going to be for the next few years. All things could change, but that's kind of why for us it's -- don't whipsaw this thing too hard right now and use some of the strengths that we have as a company, because we can, because of the portfolio that we're investing in and the opportunity set that's in front of us. So don't overreact, but don't put your head in the sand either.

我們是否必須考慮以 50 美元的價格做一些不同的事情？當然可以。但這不是我們今天的觀點，也不代表我們對未來幾年市場走向的看法。所有的事情都可能改變，但這就是為什麼對我們來說——現在不要把事情搞得太糟，而要利用我們作為一家公司所擁有的一些優勢，因為我們可以，因為我們正在投資的投資組合和擺在我們面前的機會。所以不要反應過度，但也不要逃避現實。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德、派珀·桑德勒。

Great, thanks. Maybe one on a follow up on the Marathon integration. I think it would appear that it's going well, given your guidance on capital and operational cost reduction. So maybe can you talk about how that integration is going, what you're seeing on the operational front? You've called out Eagle Ford performance, so maybe any update would be great.

太好了，謝謝。也許是有關馬拉松整合的後續行動。我認為，根據您對降低資本和營運成本的指導，一切進展順利。那麼，您能否談談整合的進展以及您在營運方面看到了什麼？您已經讚揚了 Eagle Ford 的表現，因此任何更新也許都會很棒。

Hey, Ryan. Andy here. I can start that one, and maybe Nick might have a couple of comments to add, too. It really feels pretty good to have the first full quarter of Marathon behind us. Things are going really well. The integration is tracking ahead of schedule. We're making great progress on our $1 billion of synergy captures. We continue to find more opportunities as a combined company. It is actually one of the drivers to why we're able to lower our capital and operating guidance and the improvements we've announced today.

嘿，瑞安。安迪在這裡。我可以開始這個，也許尼克也可能會添加一些評論。馬拉鬆的第一個完整四分之一已經過去，感覺真的非常好。事情進展得很順利。整合工作正在提前進行。我們在實現 10 億美元的協同效應方面取得了巨大進展。作為一家合併後的公司，我們將繼續尋找更多的機會。這實際上是我們能夠降低資本和營運指導以及今天宣布的改進措施的原因之一。

What I'd say on the capital side is we're already delivering capital synergies of over $500 million, so that started day one. What's particularly pleasing is we're continuing to see efficiency improvements come forward. An example I can give you, and maybe Nick can add to it, is that this quarter our teams achieved record-winning performance in Eagle Ford, and what was particularly pleasing about that was they were leveraging combined best practices from both companies. Those are the kinds of things that we're continuing to get.

我想說的是，在資本方面，我們已經實現了超過 5 億美元的資本協同效應，這是從第一天開始的。尤其令人高興的是，我們不斷看到效率的提升。我可以給你一個例子，也許尼克可以補充一下，那就是本季我們的團隊在 Eagle Ford 取得了創紀錄的業績，尤其令人高興的是，他們結合了兩家公司的最佳實踐。這些都是我們正在繼續獲得的東西。

Then on the cost side of it, we're also ahead of schedule. We're seeing opportunities for additional synergies in areas that we really couldn't evaluate pre-close, particularly on the commercial side of the business. Again, examples there would be that we've got opportunities in areas like crude lending and midstream contracts that we didn't have factored in that we can now see.

從成本方面來看，我們也提前完成了計劃。我們看到了在交易前無法評估的領域實現額外協同效應的機會，特別是在商業業務方面。再一次，例子是我們在原油貸款和中游合約等領域有機會，而我們現在可以看到這些機會是我們以前沒有考慮到的。

And of course, we're actually realizing synergies in the first quarter from things like the debt transaction we did that lowered our interest costs and the day one employee exit, so that's right on track. As we previously guided, we'd expect to see the synergy pace accelerate during the second half of the year as we ramp up merging all the systems. We remain very confident that we're going to exit the year achieving the costs in SG&A synergies for that run rate of $500 million.

當然，我們實際上在第一季就實現了協同效應，例如我們進行的債務交易降低了我們的利息成本，以及第一天員工離職，所以一切都在按計劃進行。正如我們之前所指導的那樣，隨著我們加快合併所有系統，我們預計下半年協同步伐將會加快。我們仍然非常有信心，我們將在今年年底實現 5 億美元的銷售、一般及行政費用綜效成本。

Maybe one final comment I'll make is we don't consider this a synergy because we think of it as a one-time, but we've got tax benefits from this transaction, too. Between the foreign tax credit utilization and the NOLs associated with Marathon, that's about $1 billion of incremental value that we're getting from the transaction above and beyond the synergy. I would just say that we're really pleased with how things are going. We're getting it integrated into our company, I think, pretty seamlessly.

我最後要說的是，我們不認為這是一種協同效應，因為我們認為這是一次性的，但我們也從這筆交易中獲得了稅收優惠。在外國稅收抵免利用和與馬拉松相關的 NOL 之間，我們從交易中獲得的增量價值約為 10 億美元，超出了協同效應。我只想說，我們對事情的進展感到非常滿意。我認為我們正在將其無縫地融入我們的公司。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Ryan, I really appreciate all the color on the cash return framework. If I'm hearing it, if the cash return is closer to the mid-40s of cash flow from ops going forward, if I could ask on the flip side of that, is it fair to think we'll be more willing to let reinvestment rate run a bit higher given where you are in the investment cycle on the major capital projects? I guess what I'm trying to get to is, is there a level of outspend that you'll feel less comfortable for the next couple of years?

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。瑞安，我真的很欣賞現金回報框架的所有細節。如果我聽到的是，如果現金回報率接近未來營運現金流的 40% 左右，那麼我可以問一下，另一方面，考慮到您在主要資本項目的投資週期中的位置，我們是否更願意讓再投資率稍微高一點？我想問的是，未來幾年，是否存在一個令您感到不太舒服的超支水平？

Well, I think we've kind of factored that into the plans that we've talked about, Betty. The absolute worst thing to do right now is to try to whipsaw these long-cycle investments. So we're not trying to slow Willow down, or we're not trying to create inefficiencies in that, and we're not, equally important, not trying to do that on the LNG side.

好吧，貝蒂，我想我們已經把這一點考慮進我們討論的計劃中了。目前最糟糕的做法就是試圖大幅削減這些長週期投資。因此，我們不會試圖減慢 Willow 的速度，也不會試圖降低其效率，同樣重要的是，我們也不會試圖在 LNG 方面這樣做。

Depending on where the price goes and what our CFO is, obviously our reinvestment rate will be a little bit higher as you kind of factor that in. But I'll remind you back when we showed a 10-year plan, what we've done with the company, over time as our cash flow goes and free cash flows, these projects come on, the reinvestment rate falls, the breakeven falls, the reinvestment rate falls. And that's really the reason why we're doing these projects to begin with.

根據價格走勢和我們的財務長的情況，顯然我們的再投資率會稍微高一點，因為你會把這些因素考慮進去。但我要提醒你們，當我們展示 10 年計畫時，我們對公司所做的事情，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們的現金流和自由現金流的增加，這些項目的出現，再投資率下降，盈虧平衡點下降，再投資率下降。這確實是我們開始進行這些項目的原因。

We can't always anticipate what the commodity price cycle is going to look like through that, but we know these projects are sub-$40 cost of supply. They can compete and they deliver a good rate of return based on our view of the mid-cycle price call because they're low cost of supply.

我們無法總是預測商品價格週期將會是什麼樣子，但我們知道這些項目的供應成本低於 40 美元。它們可以參與競爭，而且根據我們對中期價格預測的看法，它們能夠提供良好的回報率，因為它們的供應成本較低。

So there's things shareholders should be wanting us to invest in for the future growth and development of the company. But yes, there'll be some natural ups and downs in our reinvestment rate as we go through that, and the shorter cycle stuff is where we have the flexibility. And today, we're choosing not to exercise that because we have a longer-term view, but we always have that flexibility as we go forward.

因此，股東應該希望我們為公司未來的成長和發展進行投資。但是，是的，當我們經歷這個過程時，我們的再投資率會出現一些自然的起伏，而較短的周期正是我們擁有彈性的地方。今天，我們選擇不這樣做，因為我們有更長遠的眼光，但我們在前進的過程中始終擁有這種靈活性。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Hi, good morning. Bill, I just want to say thank you with all the insight and help over the number of years. And Andy, welcome to -- congratulations on the new role. Ryan, I don't know whether this is a fair question. If we look at your inventory in the Lower 48, it's probably one of the best in the industry. But we have heard from a lot of your competitors talking about how we are in the late innings in the shale oil anyway, and inventory will become far more difficult.

嗨，早安。比爾，我只想對您多年來的洞察力和幫助表示感謝。安迪，歡迎你——恭喜你擔任新職務。瑞安，我不知道這個問題是否公平。如果我們看看你們在美國本土 48 州的庫存，它可能是業內最好的庫存之一。但我們聽到很多競爭對手說，無論如何，我們在頁岩油領域已經處於後期階段，庫存將變得更加困難。

So with that in mind, do you think that Conoco needs to start more maybe aggressively diversify away from the Lower 48 into your other area of operation, if you think that is a reasonable approach with the potential downturn typically opportunity arise and which you have captured the opportunity in the past? So with that, is there any areas or asset type you would like to expand into -- or that substantially increase your existing position? Thank you.

因此考慮到這一點，您是否認為康菲公司需要更積極地從美國本土 48 個州轉向其他經營區域，如果您認為這是一種合理的方法，因為潛在的經濟衰退通常會帶來機會，而您過去已經抓住了機會？那麼，您是否希望擴展到某些領域或資產類型—或大幅提升您現有的地位？謝謝。

Yes. Long, detailed question, Paul. I think -- look, cost of supply is our North Star. We're a bit indifferent as to gas, oil, US, Lower 48, international. We like the diversity in the portfolio. All things being equal, there are areas we'd like -- you would like to grow to kind of offset the profile, maybe the unconventional. Look, it's all about the cost of supply first and foremost.

是的。保羅，這個問題很長，很詳細。我認為——看，供應成本就是我們的北極星。我們對天然氣、石油、美國、美國本土 48 州、國際都有點漠不關心。我們喜歡投資組合的多樣性。在所有條件相同的情況下，我們希望在某些領域有所發展——您希望在某種程度上抵消這種形象，也許是非傳統的。你看，這首先與供應成本有關。

We like adding more resource that is low cost of supply into our portfolio and into our company. But inorganically doing that at this point, it's a pretty high bar in the company because we obviously have a differentiated, we believe, a differentiated portfolio, both in terms of the cost of supply and its depth and duration as well. So we don't need to do anything.

我們希望在我們的產品組合和公司中添加更多供應成本低的資源。但目前以無機方式做到這一點，對公司來說是一個相當高的標準，因為我們顯然擁有差異化，我們相信，無論是在供應成本方面，還是在深度和持續時間方面，我們都有差異化的投資組合。所以我們不需要做任何事。

But we watch the market. We monitor it. We know what we like and what we don't like. So we pay close attention to it, but we're first and foremost focused on delivering our plans and delivering what we've got in the portfolio and executing, whether it's in Norway, Alaska, Canada, Lower 48, the Middle East, or the Far East. So having that diversity is important, we like it, but we're not trying to go after it if that ends up being a higher cost of supply. That just doesn't fit our model.

但我們關注市場。我們對其進行監控。我們知道自己喜歡什麼，不喜歡什麼。因此，我們密切關注它，但我們首先關注的是實現我們的計劃和交付我們在投資組合中擁有的並執行，無論是在挪威、阿拉斯加、加拿大、美國本土 48 個州、中東還是遠東。因此，擁有這種多樣性很重要，我們喜歡它，但如果最終導致供應成本更高，我們就不會追求它。這不符合我們的模型。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·西爾弗斯坦（Josh Silverstein）。

Hey, guys, my question was going to be on the percent of capital allocation to the long-cycle projects going forward. Ryan, you mentioned the free cash flow is starting to increase going forward because the spending from these four big projects is starting to roll off. I think it's around 25% of the budget this year on those projects. Can you just talk about the capital allocation going forward? Does that 25% trend over the next few years towards 15%? Or do you start backfilling some of these projects as they come online?

嘿，夥計們，我的問題是關於未來長週期專案的資本配置百分比。瑞安，您提到自由現金流未來將開始增加，因為這四個大項目的支出開始減少。我認為這些項目大約佔今年預算的 25%。能談談未來的資本配置嗎？未來幾年內，25% 的趨勢是否會朝 15% 靠攏？或者當這些項目上線時，您是否會開始補充其中一些項目？

Yes, Josh. When we tried to signal what the cash flow and pre-cash flow inflection is coming as these projects come online, I mean, we don't have another Willow and another big batch of LNG things sitting on the cupboard waiting to fall into the execution plan. No, at this point, you ought to see the capital start ramping down, commensurate with the completion of those projects, and the CFO going up as those projects come online and the free cash flow going up at an even faster pace.

是的，喬希。當我們試圖預示這些項目上線後現金流和預現金流拐點即將到來時，我的意思是，我們沒有另一個 Willow 和另一大批 LNG 產品放在櫥櫃裡等待納入執行計劃。不，此時，您應該看到資本開始減少，與這些項目的完成相稱，隨著這些項目的上線，財務長的薪水會增加，而自由現金流則會以更快的速度增加。

Because not only is the CFO coming up, we see a drop-off in the capital that's being invested. That doesn't mean that we're starving Alaska and Norway and Canada with investment. We're still investing in those base businesses just like we're doing today, and that continues. And then we're obviously investing in the Lower 48 and over time would expect to see some ramping activity there as well over time. But that's all part of our base plan.

因為不僅是財務長的上任，我們還看到投資資本的下降。這並不意味著我們的投資會阻礙阿拉斯加、挪威和加拿大的發展。我們仍在投資這些基礎業務，就像我們今天所做的一樣，而這種投資將繼續下去。然後我們顯然在美國本土 48 州進行投資，隨著時間的推移，我們預計那裡的活動也會逐漸增加。但這都是我們基本計劃的一部分。

Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

麥柯迪（Kevin MacCurdy），皮克林能源合夥公司（Pickering Energy Partners）。

Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Just on the quarter, I mean, it looks like you got a really good operational quarter, but cash flows kind of missed the mark a little bit, and to tell us that looks to be driven by cash taxes. Can you talk a little bit about why the cash taxes were higher in the first quarter and what your outlook is for the remainder of the year? Thank you.

嘿，早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。就本季而言，我的意思是，看起來你們有一個非常好的營運季度，但現金流有點偏離目標，並告訴我們這似乎是由現金稅推動的。您能否稍微談談為什麼第一季的現金稅較高以及您對今年剩餘時間的展望如何？謝謝。

Well, thanks, Kevin. We wanted to get Bill in on this call, so that seems like an appropriate thing for Bill to talk about.

好吧，謝謝，凱文。我們想讓比爾參與這通通話，所以這似乎是比爾談論的一件合適的事情。

Yes, I think I've got that one, Kevin. So first, let me just say thank you to everybody. It's been an absolute privilege for 39 years with the company. I've enjoyed working with our investors in the analyst community over the last five years, and you're in great hands. You know Andy really, really well. So one last time talking about taxes.

是的，我想我明白了，凱文。首先，請容許我向大家表達感謝。能為公司效力 39 年，對我來說絕對是一種榮幸。過去五年來，我很高興與分析師社區的投資者合作，你們得到了很好的照顧。你真的非常了解安迪。最後一次談論稅收。

So sure, we had some deferred tax movement in the quarter. So let me just put this in total context. When we started the year, we gave guidance to an effective tax rate of 36% to 37% and an effective cash tax rate of 35% to 36%. Based on our updated forecast, our full-year effective tax rate is in the high 30s. It's probably closer to right at 40%. That's due to a shift in the mix of income. We're seeing an increased percentage of our income in higher tax jurisdictions, such as Norway and Libya. And so it's pretty normal when that happens for your effective tax rate to go up a bit.

所以可以肯定的是，本季我們有一些遞延稅款變動。因此，讓我把這個放在整體背景中來闡述。今年年初，我們預計有效稅率為 36% 至 37%，有效現金稅率為 35% 至 36%。根據我們最新的預測，我們的全年有效稅率將達到 30% 左右。可能接近 40%。這是由於收入結構的改變所造成的。我們發現，在挪威和利比亞等稅收較高的地區，我們的收入比例增加。因此，當這種情況發生時，實際稅率略有上升是很正常的。

And then for the full year, as you spot our cash tax rate is expected to be a bit higher. We're expecting it to be the same as our effective tax rate. That's due largely to some discrete deferred tax items related to the Lower 48 dispositions which showed up in this quarter. As you know, discrete items are really difficult to forecast. You can see them in our deferred tax headwind in our cash flow statements for this quarter. So we had a headwind rather than our normal tailwind for deferred taxes.

然後就全年而言，正如您所發現的，我們的現金稅率預計會更高一些。我們預計它將與我們的有效稅率相同。這主要是由於本季出現了一些與美國本土 48 州的處置相關的單獨遞延稅項。如您所知，離散項目確實很難預測。您可以在本季的現金流量表中看到遞延稅項逆風。因此，對於遞延稅款來說，我們面臨的是逆風，而不是正常的順風。

Now on an underlying basis, if you exclude those discrete items for the Lower 48 dispositions, we're continuing to realize underlying deferred tax benefits from IDCs as normal. And the MRO NLOs that we've talked about, those are rolling through the system. But what you're really seeing here is a one-time discrete issue associated with dispositions in Lower 48.

現在，從根本上講，如果排除美國本土 48 個州處置的那些離散項目，我們將繼續正常地從 IDC 實現基礎遞延稅收優惠。我們討論過的 MRO NLO 正在整個系統中運作。但您在這裡真正看到的是與美國本土 48 州的處置有關的一次性離散問題。

Our next question comes from Leo Mariani with ROTH.

我們的下一個問題來自 ROTH 的 Leo Mariani。

Hi, let me just see if you guys could provide a little bit more color on the $500 million that was cut from the budget. Certainly understand that these areas were things that don't necessarily impact near-term production here in 2025. But perhaps you could talk a little bit more about what these things were, what countries they were located in. It sounds like there could be a little bit of medium-term production impact. But presumably, you can go and spend more money if prices recover on some of that eventually.

嗨，我想看看你們能否提供更多關於削減 5 億美元預算的詳細資訊。當然要明白，這些領域不一定會對 2025 年的短期生產產生影響。但也許您可以再多談談這些東西是什麼，它們位於哪些國家。這聽起來可能會對中期生產產生一點影響。但據推測，如果部分商品的價格最終回升，你就可以花更多的錢。

I can take that one. I think I really gave the answer earlier. For lack of a better term, it's nits and nats basically all over our global portfolio. There's a little bit of deflation and optimization. There's nothing here specifically that's having any production impact this year. I'd also add that it has a negligible impact on production next year. Not really any one specific thing that I would call out. It's an inventory list of the first things we do when we look to sort of where can we tighten the belt and reduce some capital, but nothing really of note I'd want to call out, really spread across the entire company.

我可以接受那個。我想我之前確實已經給了答案。由於缺乏更好的術語，我們的全球投資組合基本上都是 nits 和 nats。有一點點通貨緊縮和優化。這裡沒有任何東西對今年的生產產生任何影響。我還要補充一點，這對明年的生產影響微乎其微。我其實沒有什麼特別想說的。這是一份清單，列出了我們在考慮如何勒緊褲腰帶、減少資本時首先要做的事情，但沒有什麼值得特別指出的，實際上它影響了整個公司。

Yes, that's what I would say, Leo. It's a bit in Kirk's area and in Nick's area, so it's not any one particular area or any one particular category.

是的，這就是我要說的，Leo。這有點屬於柯克的領域，也有點屬於尼克的領域，所以它不屬於任何特定的領域或任何特定的類別。

David Deckelbaum, TD Cowen.

大衛·德克爾鮑姆（David Deckelbaum），TD Cowen。

Thank you all for taking my question today. I just wanted to follow up in the context of talking about lower cost of supply over time. You guys more or less completed your asset sale target post the Marathon deal with the most recent divestiture. How do you guys think about the cadence, if any, of non-core asset sales over the next few years? Or do you feel like you've sort of optimized the portfolio at this point?

感謝大家今天回答我的問題。我只是想在討論供應成本隨時間降低的背景下進行跟進。透過最近的資產剝離，你們或多或少完成了馬拉松交易後的資產出售目標。你們如何看待未來幾年非核心資產出售的節奏（如果有的話）？還是您覺得您現在已經優化了投資組合？

Yes, David, I think we're always optimizing the portfolio, and I think as we kind of scrub the assets and scrub the portfolio, there's hundreds of millions to half a billion of asset sales that we do each year. Coming out of the Marathon transaction, we identified a couple billion of targeted asset sales, so that probably is a little bit at the high end. But we're constantly testing all of our assets. We don't get in love with anything. And if the cost of supply of future investments start rising in those assets, we tell our teams, you've got time to figure it out. Is there technology, more efficiencies that we can bring in to make sure that those investments are competitive in the portfolio? If not, then sometimes the asset will move into a different category in the company, and we'll look to move it out of the portfolio if it makes sense. But I would say, the big things, yes, have been done. It's just more of the little cleanup things that we do just really every year.

是的，大衛，我認為我們一直在優化投資組合，而且我認為，當我們清理資產並清理投資組合時，我們每年會進行數億到五億美元的資產出售。在馬拉松交易結束後，我們確定了幾十億美元的目標資產銷售，因此這個數字可能有點偏高。但我們一直在測試我們所有的資產。我們不會愛上任何東西。如果這些資產未來投資的供應成本開始上升，我們會告訴我們的團隊，你們有時間去解決這個問題。我們是否可以引入技術和更高的效率來確保這些投資在投資組合中具有競爭力？如果沒有，那麼有時資產會轉移到公司的不同類別，如果合理的話，我們會考慮將其移出投資組合。但我想說，大事已經完成了。這只是我們每年都會進行的一些小清理工作。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. This will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的問答環節到此結束。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。