康菲 (COP) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the second-quarter 2025 ConocoPhillips earnings conference call. My name is Liz and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加康菲石油公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫 Liz，今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。（操作員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Guy Baber, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Guy Baber。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Liz, and welcome, everyone, to our second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Andy O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Strategy and Commercial; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48 and Global HSC; and Kirk Johnson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and Technical Functions. Ryan and Andy will kick off the call with opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions. For Q&A, we will be taking one question per caller.

謝謝你，利茲，歡迎大家參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。參加今天電話會議的有康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾位成員，包括董事長兼執行長 Ryan Lance、財務長兼策略與商業執行副總裁 Andy O'Brien、美國下 48 州和全球 HSC 執行副總裁 Nick Olds 以及全球營運和技術職能執行副總裁 Kirk Johnson。Ryan 和 Andy 將以開場白開始會議，之後團隊將回答您的問題。對於問答環節，我們將為每位來電者回答一個問題。

A few quick reminders today. First, along with the release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation which you can now find on the Investor Relations website. Also during this call, we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. We will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ryan.

今天有幾個快速提醒。首先，隨著新聞稿的發布，我們還發布了補充財務資料和幻燈片演示，您現在可以在投資者關係網站上找到它們。此外，在本次電話會議中，我們將根據目前預期做出前瞻性陳述。由於今天的發布和我們定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。我們將參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。在今天的發布會上以及我們的網站上可以找到與最接近的 GAAP 指標對應的對帳表。說完這些，我會把電話轉給瑞安。

Thanks, Guy, and thank you to everyone for joining our second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Starting with results and outlook, we delivered another strong execution quarter, once again exceeding the top end of our production guidance range.

謝謝，蓋伊，也謝謝大家參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。從結果和展望開始，我們又一個季度表現強勁，再次超出了我們的生產指導範圍的最高限度。

We reiterated the midpoint of our full-year production guidance, even with the announced agreement to sell our Anadarko Basin asset for $1.3 billion. And our capital spending and operating cost guidance ranges, both of which we lowered last quarter, remain unchanged.

儘管我們宣布以 13 億美元的價格出售阿納達科盆地資產，但我們仍重申了全年生產預期的中點。我們的資本支出和營運成本指引範圍（上個季度均已下調）維持不變。

On return of capital, we remain on track to distribute about 45% of our full-year CFO to shareholders this year. That's consistent with our prior guidance and our long-term track record. The bottom line, we're operating well, we're delivering on our plan, and we're well positioned for a strong second half of the year with clear free cash flow tailwinds including lower capital spending.

在資本回報方面，我們今年仍將按計劃向股東分配約 45% 的全年 CFO。這與我們先前的指導和長期業績記錄一致。底線是，我們運作良好，正在執行計劃，並且我們為今年下半年的強勁表現做好了準備，擁有明顯的自由現金流順風，包括較低的資本支出。

Turning to the Marathon Oil acquisition, I'm pleased to announce that the asset integration is now complete, and that we've significantly outperformed our acquisition case. We added more high-quality, low cost of supply resource; we're achieving more synergies; we're delivering a more efficient Lower 48 development program; and we've already announced more asset sales than we guided at the time of the transaction announcement.

談到馬拉松石油收購案，我很高興地宣布，資產整合現已完成，而且我們的表現遠遠超出了我們的收購方案。我們增加了更多高品質、低成本的供應資源；我們正在實現更多的協同效應；我們正在提供更有效率的美國本土 48 個州開發計劃；並且我們已經宣布的資產出售數量已經超過了交易公告發佈時所指導的數量。

While these are all significant achievements, we're not stopping there. Given our integration success, which builds upon other successful transactions, as well as our recent implementation of a new company-wide enterprise resource system, we continue to drive for improvement across every level of the organization. As part of this effort, we've identified more than $1 billion of additional cost reduction and margin enhancement opportunities. Now to be clear, that's on top of the more than $1 billion of Marathon synergies we've already expected to realize.- Additionally, now that we've exceeded our $2 billion asset sales objective ahead of schedule, we're raising our total disposition target to $5 billion. Collectively, these initiatives will strengthen our ability to generate strong returns on and of capital through the cycles and enhance our long-term value proposition. And that's a value proposition that's already differentiated, not only relative to our sector, but relative to the broader S&P 500 as well.

雖然這些都是重大成就，但我們不會就此止步。鑑於我們的整合成功（建立在其他成功交易的基礎上），以及我們最近實施的新的全公司企業資源系統，我們將繼續推動組織各個層面的改進。作為這項努力的一部分，我們已經發現了超過10億美元的額外成本削減和利潤提高機會。現在要明確的是，這是在我們已經預期實現的超過 10 億美元的馬拉松協同效應的基礎上的。此外，現在我們已經提前超過了 20 億美元的資產銷售目標，我們將總處置目標提高到 50 億美元。總的來說，這些措施將增強我們在各個週期中產生強勁資本回報的能力，並提升我們的長期價值主張。這是一個已經有所差異化的價值主張，不僅相對於我們的產業，而且相對於更廣泛的標準普爾 500 指數而言。

We believe we have the highest-quality asset base in our peer space. Our global portfolio is deep, durable, and diverse, and we're recognized as having the most advantaged U.S. inventory position in the sector. We believe this advantage will become increasingly apparent as the U.S. shale industry continues to mature, and investors are forced to more clearly sort through what we call the inventory “haves” and “have-nots.” We are a clear leader in the U.S. inventory “haves.”

我們相信，我們擁有同行中最優質的資產基礎。我們的全球投資組合深度、持久且多樣化，我們被公認為在該領域擁有最優勢的美國庫存地位。我們相信，隨著美國頁岩產業的不斷成熟，這種優勢將變得越來越明顯，投資者將被迫更清楚地篩選我們所謂的庫存「富人」和「窮人」。我們在美國庫存「富人」中處於明顯領先地位。

In addition, we're uniquely investing in our high-quality portfolio, specifically in our longer-cycle projects in LNG and Alaska to deliver strong returns and a compelling multi-year free cash flow growth profile. Assuming a $70 per barrel WTI price environment, we expect the major projects we're currently progressing in combination with the additional cost and margin enhancements we just announced to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029. That would almost double the consensus free cash flow expectation for the entire company this year.

此外，我們還以獨特的方式投資於我們的高品質投資組合，特別是我們在液化天然氣和阿拉斯加的長週期項目，以提供強勁的回報和引人注目的多年自由現金流增長狀況。假設 WTI 價格環境為每桶 70 美元，我們預計目前正在推進的主要項目加上我們剛剛宣布的額外成本和利潤率提升，將在 2029 年推動 70 億美元的自由現金流變化。這幾乎使今年整個公司的自由現金流預期翻了一番。

Now with that, let me turn the call over to Andy to cover our second-quarter performance, 2025 guidance and strategic objectives in more detail.

現在，讓我將電話交給安迪，更詳細地介紹我們的第二季業績、2025 年指導和策略目標。

Thanks, Ryan. Starting with our second-quarter performance, as Ryan mentioned, we had another quarter of strong execution across the portfolio. We produced 2,391,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, once again exceeding the high end of our production guidance.

謝謝，瑞安。正如 Ryan 所提到的，從第二季的表現開始，我們的整個投資組合又在一個季度中表現強勁。我們每天生產 2,391,000 桶油當量，再次超過了我們產量預期的上限。

In the Lower 48, production averaged 1,508,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Alaska and international production averaged 883,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day as we successfully completed turnarounds in Norway and Qatar.

在美國本土 48 州，石油產量平均為每天 1,508,000 桶當量。由於我們成功完成了挪威和卡達的扭虧為盈，阿拉斯加和國際產量平均每天達到 883,000 桶油當量。

Regarding our second-quarter financials, we generated $1.42 per share in adjusted earnings and $4.7 billion of CFO. We had a $1.5 billion working capital headwind, effectively offsetting the equivalent-sized tailwind we realized last quarter.

關於我們第二季的財務狀況，我們的調整後每股收益為 1.42 美元，財務長為 47 億美元。我們面臨 15 億美元營運資金逆風，有效抵銷了上個季度實現的同等規模的順風。

Capital expenditures were $3.3 billion, slightly down quarter on quarter. We returned $2.2 billion to our shareholders, including $1.2 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in ordinary dividends. Through the first half of this year, we've returned $4.7 billion to our shareholders, about 45% of our CFO, consistent with our full-year guidance and long-term track record. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $5.7 billion, plus $1.1 billion in long-term liquid investments.

資本支出為 33 億美元，環比略有下降。我們向股東返還了 22 億美元，其中包括 12 億美元的回購和 10 億美元的普通股息。今年上半年，我們已向股東返還 47 億美元，約佔財務長的 45%，這與我們的全年指引和長期業績記錄一致。截至本季末，我們的現金和短期投資為 57 億美元，加上 11 億美元的長期流動投資。

Turning to our outlook, for full-year production guidance, we have narrowed the range and reiterated the guidance midpoint, even after adjusting for the Anadarko sale of approximately 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which is expected to close at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Our capital spend and cost guidance ranges, both of which we reduced last quarter, are unchanged.

談到我們的展望，對於全年產量指引，我們已經縮小了範圍並重申了指引中點，即使在調整了阿納達科每天約 40,000 桶石油當量的銷售量（預計將在第四季度初結束）之後。我們的資本支出和成本指引範圍在上個季度均已下調，目前維持不變。

We now expect our full-year effective corporate tax rate to be in the mid to high 30% range, excluding one-time items, lower than we previously guided due to geographical mix. And we now expect a total full-year deferred tax benefit of about $0.5 billion dollars, primarily reflecting the positive impacts from the One Big Beautiful Bill.

我們現在預計，全年有效企業稅率將在 30% 的中高水準（不包括一次性項目），由於地理分佈的原因，這一水準低於我們先前的預期。我們現在預計全年遞延稅收收益總額約為 5 億美元，這主要反映了《一項美麗大法案》帶來的正面影響。

In the second half of the year, we expect free cash flow tailwinds in the form of higher APLNG distributions, cash tax benefits, and lower capital spending. Further guidance details can be found on our earnings slide deck.

下半年，我們預計 APLNG 分配將增加、現金稅收優惠和資本支出將減少，從而帶來自由現金流順風。在我們的收益幻燈片中可以找到更多指導細節。

Turning now to our strategic updates, as Ryan noted, we have completed the Marathon asset integration and are realizing comprehensive outperformance against our acquisition case. We're delivering everything we said and much more.

現在談談我們的策略更新，正如 Ryan 指出的那樣，我們已經完成了馬拉松資產整合，並且正在實現超越我們收購方案的全面表現。我們正在兌現我們所說的一切，甚至更多。

First, we've upgraded our low-cost supply resource estimate by 25%. While we were most attracted to Marathon’s significant Eagle Ford and Bakken positions, both of which are every bit as good as we expected and delivering excellent well results, the majority of the increase has been driven by the Permian, where our resource estimate has approximately doubled versus the initial estimate.

首先，我們將低成本供應資源預估調高了25%。雖然我們最關注的是 Marathon 重要的 Eagle Ford 和 Bakken 礦區，這兩個礦區都完全符合我們的預期，並且提供了出色的油井結果，但大部分的增長是由 Permian 推動的，我們對該礦區的資源估計比最初的估計增加了約一倍。

The second point I would highlight, we have significantly outperformed our initial synergy guidance. At the time of the transaction announcement, we guided $500 million of annual synergies. With our steady-state capital development program achieved and critical system cutovers now in the rearview mirror, we are on a glide path to realize more than $1 billion of run-rate synergies by the end of the year.

我要強調的第二點是，我們的業績已大大超越了最初的綜效預期。在交易公告發佈時，我們預計每年的綜效為 5 億美元。隨著我們穩態資本發展計畫的實現和關鍵系統切換的完成，我們預計在今年年底前實現超過 10 億美元的運行率協同效應。

In addition, we've identified over $1 billion of one-time benefits, largely cash tax related. While we don't count this as a synergy, it's real value and a material benefit to our company. The third point I'd highlight, we brought the power of our more efficient and steady-state development program to the combined portfolio.

此外，我們還確定了超過 10 億美元的一次性福利，其中大部分與現金稅有關。雖然我們不認為這是一種協同效應，但它對我們公司來說具有真正的價值和物質利益。我要強調的第三點是，我們將更有效率、更穩定的開發計畫的力量帶入了合併後的投資組合。

At the time of the transaction announcement, we highlighted our ability to more efficiently develop Marathon's acreage, given our size and scale advantage, and ability to level-load our program versus Marathon's practice of ramping activity up and down. We've now achieved optimized level of steady-state activity, and we're delivering more combined production with 30% fewer rigs and frac crews in comparison to the pre-transaction pro forma activity levels. And finally, with the announced Anadarko sale, we've now signed over $2.5 billion of dispositions within nine months of the transaction close, beating our $2 billion target well ahead of schedule.

在交易公告發佈時，我們強調了我們能夠更有效地開發 Marathon 的土地，因為我們的規模和優勢，而且我們有能力平衡我們的項目，而 Marathon 的做法是增加和減少活動量。我們現在已經實現了優化的穩定狀態活動水平，與交易前的預計活動水平相比，我們減少了 30% 的鑽機和壓裂人員，但綜合產量卻增加了。最後，隨著阿納達科出售交易的宣布，我們在交易結束後的九個月內已經簽署了超過 25 億美元的處置協議，提前超過了我們 20 億美元的目標。

Given our growth in recent years and implementation of our new company-wide ERP system, we are taking the opportunity for further cost and margin improvements across the entire company. We've identified more than $1 billion of opportunities that we expect to realize on a run-rate basis by the end of 2026. All of this is in addition to the $1 billion of Marathon synergies we previously discussed that we expect to realize on a run-rate basis by the end of this year.

鑑於我們近年來的成長和新公司 ERP 系統的實施，我們正在藉此機會進一步降低整個公司的成本並提高利潤率。我們已經發現了超過 10 億美元的機會，預計到 2026 年底這些機會將按運行率實現。所有這些都是我們之前討論過的 10 億美元馬拉松協同效應的補充，我們預計這些協同效應將在今年年底前按運行率實現。

These additional improvements will be wide-ranging, encompassing cost reductions across our SG&A, operating costs, and transportation costs, as well as margin enhancement through commercial opportunities. All in, including the Marathon synergies, we expect to drive over $2 billion of run-rate improvements by the end of next year.

這些額外的改進將是廣泛的，包括降低銷售、一般及行政費用、營運成本和運輸成本，以及透過商業機會提高利潤率。總體而言，包括馬拉鬆的協同效應在內，我們預計到明年年底將實現超過 20 億美元的運行率提升。

In addition to furthering our cost reduction initiatives, we are more than doubling our asset sales target to $5 billion, which we also expect to achieve by the end of next year. We see a clear opportunity to further high-grade our portfolio and accelerate value realization for assets that are not currently competing for capital.

除了進一步推進成本削減措施外，我們還將資產銷售目標提高一倍以上，達到 50 億美元，並預計在明年年底前實現這一目標。我們看到了進一步提升我們的投資組合併加速實現目前不爭奪資本的資產價值的明顯機會。

So to wrap up, we continue to execute well, operationally, financially, and across our strategic initiatives. We are well positioned for the second half of the year with clear free cash flow tailwinds, and we continue to find ways to enhance our differentiated long-term investment thesis. That concludes our prepared remarks. I'll now turn it over to the operator to start the Q&A.

總而言之，我們在營運、財務和策略舉措方面繼續表現良好。我們為下半年做好了準備，擁有明顯的自由現金流順風，我們將繼續尋找方法來增強我們差異化的長期投資理念。我們的準備好的演講到此結束。現在我將把時間交給操作員開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的 Neil Mehta。

Good morning. Good afternoon, Ryan, Andy, team. Really appreciate the incremental disclosure and love the slide 7. So Ryan, maybe we could start there, which is if you look at street numbers, at around $60 to $70 per barrel WTI, you're generating close to $8 billion of free cash flow this year.

早安.午安，Ryan、Andy、團隊。非常感謝增量披露並且喜歡幻燈片 7。所以瑞安，也許我們可以從這裡開始，如果你看看街頭數字，每桶 WTI 價格約為 60 至 70 美元，那麼今年你將產生近 80 億美元的自由現金流。

So if you add $6 billion to $7 billion, you're kind of closer to $14 billion, which implies by 2029, a 12% free cash flow yield. So I first wanted to just check the math on and make sure that we're not missing any pieces around it.

因此，如果將 60 億美元添加到 70 億美元，您將接近 140 億美元，這意味著到 2029 年，自由現金流收益率將達到 12%。所以我首先想檢查數學並確保我們沒有遺漏任何部分。

And then to the extent that is the right framework, which is a great prize in a couple of years, the pushback might be, you got to wait for it. And so Ryan maybe your perspective on -- with every year, you derisk towards that free cash flow number as capital intensity improves. So you don't necessarily have to wait to 2029 would be in theory, but it would be just your perspective on all that.

然後，就正確的框架而言，這在幾年內是一個巨大的獎勵，但阻力可能會是，你必須等待它。因此，Ryan 可能認為 — — 隨著資本密集度的提高，您每年都會降低自由現金流的風險。因此，從理論上講，您不一定要等到 2029 年，但這只是您對這一切的看法。

Yeah. Thanks, Neil. Got ahead of the class. Your math is pretty good. Look, yeah, we're working pretty hard. As you mentioned, the numbers fit exactly what we're thinking about in that $60 to $70 range. We'll add about $7 billion of free cash flow between now and 2029.

是的。謝謝，尼爾。領先全班。你的數學很好。瞧，是的，我們工作非常努力。正如您所說，這些數字完全符合我們所考慮的 60 至 70 美元的範圍。從現在到 2029 年，我們將增加約 70 億美元的自由現金流。

I mean you don't have to wait until 2029. Some of that is coming through the -- about one third or so is coming through the LNG channel. And there's going to be consistent start-ups starting next year with Qatar -- one of the trains in Qatar, 2027; with Port Arthur in 2028; with another train in Qatar; and then in 2029 with Willow.

我的意思是你不必等到 2029 年。其中大約三分之一是透過液化天然氣管道輸送的。從明年開始，我們將與卡達一起持續啟動該計畫——其中一列火車將於 2027 年在卡達啟動；2028 年在亞瑟港啟動；在卡達再啟動一列火車；然後是 2029 年的 Willow 列車。

So all of that's coming. Everything is on track. And you're right, it nearly doubles our current consensus free cash flow that I said in my opening remarks. And I think this is a trajectory and things that are coming that are unique in the business. There's no other E&P that I think can match what's coming for us, including the integrated majors.

所以這一切都會發生。一切都在按計劃進行。你說得對，正如我在開場白中所說的，它幾乎使我們目前共識的自由現金流翻了一番。我認為這是該行業獨一無二的發展軌跡和即將發生的事情。我認為沒有其他 E&P 公司能夠與我們相比，包括綜合專業公司。

So I think we're unique in this space. We've been leaning in and making these investments that are very competitive in the portfolio, low cost of supply opportunities for the company that are going to contribute to our growth and development for decades to come. And I would say, too, that it does not include the inventory advantage we currently have in the Lower 48, a very deep and Tier 1 inventory that we have, and where we're constructive in the macro going long term. And if the call for shale production starts to come up, because where is the supply coming to meet the growing demand that we believe is going to be there, this doesn't even include what we could do to lean into our Lower 48 a little bit more. We haven't, because the call hasn't been there to date. So we're growing at a bit more modest rate, but we're taking advantage of the integration, we're taking advantage of the synergies.

所以我認為我們在這個領域是獨一無二的。我們一直在努力進行這些在投資組合中非常有競爭力的投資，為公司提供低成本的供應機會，這將為我們未來幾十年的成長和發展做出貢獻。而且我還想說，這還不包括我們目前在美國本土 48 個州擁有的庫存優勢、我們擁有的非常深厚的一級庫存，以及我們在長期宏觀上的建設性。如果頁岩油生產的需求開始上升，因為我們認為哪裡有供應來滿足不斷增長的需求，這甚至不包括我們可以採取哪些措施來更依賴美國本土 48 個州。我們沒有，因為到現在為止還沒接到電話。因此，我們的成長速度比較溫和，但我們正在利用整合的優勢，我們正在利用協同效應。

I remind people, we haven't added a rig in three, four years. So we're just continuing to grow our Lower 48 just through the efficiency in the channels. So none of that even includes what we could do, depending what the call is for unconventional production going forward. So no, your math is good. We're excited about the opportunities for the company.

我提醒大家，我們已經三、四年沒有增加鑽孔機了。因此，我們只是透過提高通路效率來繼續擴大美國本土 48 州的規模。因此，這些都不包括我們能做的事情，這取決於未來非常規生產的要求。所以，你的數學很好。我們對公司面臨的機會感到非常興奮。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的阿倫‧賈亞拉姆 (Arun Jayaram)。

Yeah, good morning, good afternoon team. Ryan, I was wondering if you could unpack the $1 billion cost reduction and margin optimization plan, which looks to be a new wrinkle in the update. You mentioned the ERP system integration.

是的，大家早安，下午好。瑞安，我想知道您是否可以解釋一下 10 億美元的成本削減和利潤優化計劃，這似乎是更新中的一個新問題。您提到了 ERP 系統整合。

I was wondering if you could talk about what are some of the drivers of the $1 billion? And are you doing anything at the organizational level to reengineer kind of your operating structure?

我想知道您是否可以談談這 10 億美元的一些驅動因素是什麼？您是否在組織層面採取了任何措施來重新設計您的營運結構？

Yeah. No, Arun. It's going to touch all pieces of the company. There are some workforce centralization, some things that we've learned over the last three to four years with all the transactions that we've done, that we're going to be implementing kind of globally throughout the company. So there's a piece of G&A built into this.

是的。不，阿倫。它將影響公司的各個部分。有一些勞動力集中化，這是我們在過去三到四年裡從所有交易中學到的一些事情，我們將在整個公司範圍內實施。因此，這其中就包含了一些 G&A 部分。

There's utilizing the scale and scope of the company to drive some lease operating expense improvements as well, things that we're doing contractually, things that we've captured in the Lower 48 and understand from an efficiency perspective that we can drive throughout the whole company. As we've grown our scale, we also see opportunities in transportation and processing. And that's going to show up as expense reduction and margin expansion through realized price improvement commercially.

我們利用公司的規模和範圍來推動一些租賃營運費用的改善，以及我們透過合約所做的事情，以及我們在美國本土 48 個州所捕獲的事情，並從效率的角度理解我們可以在整個公司中推動這些事情。隨著規模的擴大，我們也看到了運輸和加工領域的機會。這將透過商業上實現的價格改善體現為費用的減少和利潤的擴大。

I'd say about 80% of it sits within the G&A, LOE, T&P, just expense reductions. 20% of it sits in that kind of margin expansion bucket. And I'd tell you, none of this includes capital sort of things. We don't count that in our synergy estimates. We're just talking about stuff that will flow through the bottom line and changes that we need to make as a result of some of the technologies we're deploying and the size, scale, and scope of the company through the inorganic expansions that we've had over the three to four years. And it's, with that behind us, now time for us to get the whole company running, taking advantage of stuff that we've invested in over the last few years.

我想說其中大約 80% 屬於 G&A、LOE、T&P 等費用削減。 20% 屬於利潤率擴張部分。我要告訴你，這些都不包括資本之類的東西。我們沒有將其計入我們的協同效應估計中。我們只是在談論那些會影響底線的事情，以及由於我們正在部署的一些技術以及公司在過去三到四年內透過無機擴張而擴大的規模和範圍而需要做出的改變。有了這些，現在是時候讓整個公司運作起來，利用我們在過去幾年中投資的東西。

Steve Richardson, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫理查森，Evercore ISI。

I appreciate you're probably not going to tell us what's for sale. Ryan, in terms of this meaningfully increased divestiture target. But perhaps you can give us some perspectives on the acquisition market from the sell side. And maybe just talk about the types of assets, and I'm sure you're intently focused on cost of supply in terms of high grading. But maybe you could talk just sort of asset types and that process and the confidence on that higher target.

我知道你可能不會告訴我們有東西在出售。瑞安，就此次大幅增加的剝離目標而言。但也許您可以從賣方角度來為我們介紹一些關於收購市場的觀點。也許只是談論資產類型，我相信您會專注於高等級的供應成本。但也許您可以談談資產類型、流程以及對更高目標的信心。

Yeah. No. Thanks, Steve. I think we've described to you and others that are on the call, and we go through a pretty rigorous exercise every year. We've kind of come out of the back end of our planning exercise that ramps up during the summer months.

是的。不。謝謝，史蒂夫。我想我們已經向您和其他參加電話會議的人描述過了，我們每年都會進行相當嚴格的演習。我們的規劃工作已基本完成，夏季的幾個月裡，規劃工作不斷加強。

And through that process, we look at every asset in the portfolio. And we look for the ones that are competing for capital and those that aren't competing for capital. And we tell our teams for the assets that are on the outside looking in a little bit, maybe there's different technologies we can deploy, different ways to think about it, different learnings from across the company. And we give them some time to see if they can compete for capital long term. But if they don't, then they migrate to a different list.

透過這個過程，我們審視投資組合中的每一項資產。我們尋找那些爭奪資本的公司和那些不爭取資本的公司。我們告訴我們的團隊，對於外部的資產，稍微看一下，也許我們可以部署不同的技術，以不同的方式思考，從整個公司獲得不同的經驗。我們給他們一些時間，看看他們是否能夠長期競爭資本。但如果他們不這樣做，他們就會遷移到不同的清單。

And look, we're resource-rich in a resource-scarce world today. So that's what, I think we were pleasantly surprised with the Anadarko Basin. We -- there's an example that wasn't going to compete for capital in the portfolio. We're getting plenty of North American natural gas production from our assets in North America. It just wasn't going to compete for capital as we integrated that asset into the company, and we were pretty pleased with the price that we got.

看看吧，在現今這個資源匱乏的世界裡，我們的資源卻十分豐富。所以，我認為阿納達科盆地讓我們感到驚訝。我們——有一個例子是不會在投資組合中爭奪資本。我們從北美的資產中獲得了大量的北美天然氣產量。當我們將該資產整合到公司時，它根本不會爭取資本，我們對得到的價格感到非常滿意。

So as we scrub the portfolio and think about it, going forward with the remainder of this year and through 2026, we just felt like we see the assets that are out there and that aren't competing for capital. And we think it's going to be a reasonable market to be selling into, which is what gave us confidence to increase the target to $5 billion. And we've already surpassed our $2 billion target as Andy described in his remarks to date with about $2.5 billion sold through this point in time.

因此，當我們仔細審查投資組合併進行思考時，展望今年剩餘時間和 2026 年，我們只是覺得我們看到了現有的資產，這些資產不會爭奪資本。我們認為這將是一個合理的銷售市場，這讓我們有信心將目標提高到 50 億美元。正如安迪在迄今為止的演講中所描述的那樣，我們已經超越了 20 億美元的目標，目前銷售額已達到約 25 億美元。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Ryan, I missed all these incredibly positive updates. I hate to ask such an asinine question as cash tax, but going to make Andy earn his crust today. And you got $500 million incremental deferred for '25.

謝謝。大家早安。瑞安，我錯過了所有這些令人難以置信的積極更新。我不想問現金稅這種愚蠢的問題，但今天我要讓安迪自食其力。並且您獲得了 25 年 5 億美元的增量遞延。

Obviously, there's a lot of moving parts with the M&A, the Marathon, and obviously asset sales and so on. What is the sustainable deferred tax visibility that you have for the Lower 48 at this point if you're able to offer any color beyond 2025?

顯然，併購、馬拉松、資產出售等都涉及許多活動部分。如果您能提供 2025 年以後的任何信息，那麼您目前對美國本土 48 個州的可持續遞延稅項的可見性是多少？

Hey Doug, it's Andy. Yeah, you're going to make me earn my stripes with the first question. There's quite a few moving parts to taxes this quarter. So maybe I'll just try to cover them sort of step by step and sort of try to get everything covered in tax in one question here.

嘿，道格，我是安迪。是的，你將會用第一個問題讓我證明自己。本季的稅收有相當多的變動。因此，也許我會嘗試逐步涵蓋這些內容，並嘗試在這裡的一個問題中涵蓋稅收的所有內容。

So just so we -- just to clear because I think some of this gets conflated in terms of what's the One Big Beautiful Bill impacting, what isn't it impacting. So just starting with the quarter, in terms of our 2Q effective tax rate, we were lower than we guided last quarter. And we've actually reduced the full-year effective tax rates to the mid-30s for the rest of the year.

所以我們——只是為了澄清一下，因為我認為在《一個美麗的大法案》對什麼有影響、對什麼沒有影響這兩個問題上，有些問題被混淆了。因此，從本季開始，就我們的第二季有效稅率而言，我們低於上一季的預期。實際上，我們已將今年剩餘時間的全年有效稅率降至 35% 左右。

So that was purely due to sort of a mix, where we had domestic commodity prices relative to international markets were a bit higher than we forecast. And that resulted in a higher mix of income from our lower-tax jurisdictions like the US. So that's probably the first thing that jumps out to people, is the effective tax rate.

所以這純粹是由於某種混合因素造成的，我們的國內商品價格相對於國際市場的價格比我們預測的要高一點。這導致來自美國等低稅率管轄區的收入結構有所提高。因此，人們首先想到的可能是有效稅率。

The second thing, going on to the deferred tax is, we saw a larger-than-expected deferred tax benefit during the second quarter. That had nothing to do with the new tax bill. That was largely due to one-off discrete items that we really don't forecast.

第二件事，關於遞延稅項，我們看到第二季的遞延稅項收益大於預期。這與新的稅收法案無關。這主要是因為我們確實無法預測的一次性離散項目。

And then getting to the meat of your question, in terms of the expected benefits, we covered this in our prepared remarks. That this year, we think the One Big Beautiful Bill will have a half a billion dollar impact to us, and that's primarily due simply to the bonus depreciation rate going from 40% to 100%.

然後回到你問題的核心，就預期收益而言，我們在準備好的發言中已經談到了這一點。我們認為，今年《美麗新法案》將對我們產生 5 億美元的影響，這主要是因為獎金折舊率從 40% 上升到了 100%。

Now, of course, that's going to carry on into 2026, and we'll continue to benefit from that bonus depreciation. But specifically to get into numbers at this point is a little bit too early. I think you helped to answer the question for me in terms of why. We've got to land exactly where the CapEx is, what's happening with -- which assets are being disposed of. But what we do know is that it's going to be a tailwind for us next year.

當然，這種情況將持續到 2026 年，我們將繼續受益於獎金折舊。但現在具體討論數字還為時過早。我認為你幫我回答了「為什麼」這個問題。我們必須確切了解資本支出在哪裡，發生什麼情況，哪些資產正在被處置。但我們確實知道，這對我們來說明年將會是順風。

Lloyd Byrne, Jefferies.

勞埃德·伯恩（Lloyd Byrne），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

Ryan, Andy. I think that 30% fewer rigs and frac crews actually equates to almost 100% of what Marathon is running at the time of the deal, very impressive. But let me just -- I guess, I'll ask my question about LNG and kind of the downstream strategy. And just kind of what you're expecting from regasification sales deals going forward? And then how do we expect that to contribute over the next few years?

瑞安、安迪。我認為減少 30% 的鑽機和壓裂人員實際上相當於交易達成時 Marathon 營運能力的近 100%，這非常令人印象深刻。但我想，我會問一個關於液化天然氣和下游策略的問題。您對未來的再氣化銷售交易有何期待？那麼我們預計它在未來幾年將有何貢獻？

Yeah, I'll maybe start, let Andy jump in on the LNG side. But yeah, you snuck in two for one there. Good job, Doug -- or Lloyd, you're good there. Look, yeah, I think we're pretty impressed with what Nick and his team have done with the integration in Marathon. But you're right, we've effectively eliminated their 10-rig program. And not only delivered the pro forma production between the two companies, but growing the production as well.

是的，也許我會開始，讓安迪加入液化天然氣方面。但是的，你確實偷偷地以一敵二。幹得好，道格——或者勞埃德，你做得很好。是的，我認為我們對 Nick 和他的團隊在 Marathon 的整合工作印象深刻。但您說得對，我們已經有效地取消了他們的 10 台鑽機計劃。並且不僅交付了兩家公司之間的形式生產，而且還增加了產量。

So I think Nick's team's really hitting on all the cylinders, and we're really pleased with the success we've had in the aggressive way that they've tackled that program as well. I can let Andy talk a little bit about the LNG side.

所以我認為尼克的團隊真的全力以赴，我們對他們積極處理這個專案所取得的成功感到非常高興。我可以讓安迪稍微談談液化天然氣方面的狀況。

Sure, I think on the LNG side, you're probably specifically referring to some of the stuff that we've announced this quarter where we've added another 1.5 MTPA regas capacity at Dunkerque in France, and we also executed an SPA with an Asian buyer.

當然，我認為在液化天然氣方面，您可能特別提到了我們本季宣布的一些事情，我們在法國敦克爾克增加了 1.5 MTPA 再氣化能力，並且我們還與亞洲買家簽署了 SPA。

And what I'm pretty pleased about is with those two announcements, we've now effectively placed the entire 5 MTPA from Port Arthur. So going forward, we're now at a point where we're continuing to have conversations, both on the offtake side of things and on the placement. But everything is tracking really well. We're placing -- we placed everything we have today. So now we're looking basically to the next steps, and what I can say in that space is that things certainly aren't slowing down, both in terms of opportunities for more offtake and conversations with customers in Europe and Asia.

令我非常高興的是，透過這兩項公告，我們現在已經有效地將全部 5 MTPA 運往亞瑟港。因此，展望未來，我們現在正處於繼續進行對話的階段，既涉及事情的承購方面，也涉及安置方面。但一切都進展順利。我們正在放置——我們放置了我們今天擁有的一切。因此，現在我們基本上正在考慮下一步，我可以說的是，事情肯定不會放緩，無論是在獲得更多承購機會方面，還是在與歐洲和亞洲客戶的對話方面。

So probably a bit of a watch-this-space. Hopefully, we'll have more to talk about in coming quarters and really pleased to have the commercial LNG are starting to come together to really complement what we've already got with our resource LNG in Australia and Qatar.

因此可能需要多加留意。希望我們能在未來幾季有更多討論，並且非常高興商業液化天然氣開始聚集在一起，真正補充我們在澳洲和卡達已經擁有的資源液化天然氣。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

Thank you for taking my question. Maybe Andy, a follow up to your comment earlier about trying to understand where the CapEx plans for next year. I was wondering if you guys can give an early read on how you're thinking about 2026 at the moment with the additional cost savings you're envisioning. Commodity prices probably a bit more supportive. How do you see development evolving next year? Where do you expect the major capital spend to trend? And maybe just frame, how much of that long-term free cash flow inflection could get captured next year?

感謝您回答我的問題。也許安迪，可以跟進您之前關於試圖了解明年的資本支出計劃的評論。我想知道你們能否提前了解你們目前對 2026 年的設想以及你們設想的額外成本節約。大宗商品價格可能將更具支撐作用。您認為明年的發展將如何發展？您預期主要資本支出的趨勢如何？也許只是框架，明年可以獲得多少長期自由現金流變動？

Thanks, Betty. I can try and take that one. And yeah, it is a little early to be talking about 2026, but I'm happy to share a few high-level thoughts. So starting on the capital spending side of things. We've been saying this for a number of quarters now. We expect our capital next year to be lower than this year as we -- beginning of the cash flow for inflection.

謝謝，貝蒂。我可以嘗試接受那個。是的，現在談論 2026 年還為時過早，但我很樂意分享一些高層次的想法。因此，從資本支出方面開始。我們已經說了好幾個季度了。我們預計明年的資本將低於今年，因為我們開始出現現金流拐點。

And then maybe also just to touch on production, I think we've always been saying that, for us, production really, it's just simply an output of our plan. And if you look at what we're doing this year, from our guidance, basically, that implies about 2% growth on an underlying basis this year.

然後也許只是談到生產，我想我們一直在說，對我們來說，生產實際上只是我們計劃的產出。如果你看看我們今年的做法，從我們的指導來看，基本上，這意味著今年的基本成長率約為 2%。

And in the macro environment we see right now, I think this would be a pretty good place to start for modeling purposes for next year. I think Ryan mentioned it on the rig side in a previous question. No, we haven't added essentially a rig in the Lower 48 on the ConocoPhillips side over three years. And right now, probably don't really see a good reason to do that.

在我們目前看到的宏觀環境下，我認為這對於明年的建模來說是一個很好的起點。我認為 Ryan 在之前的問題中提到過鑽機方面的問題。不，三年來我們基本上沒有在美國本土 48 個康菲石油公司一側增加鑽井平台。而現在，可能真的找不到充分的理由。

But the other thing I would add is that, in terms of maybe just going from one half this year to the second half next year, we're already starting to see the cash flow inflection coming. If you look at our CapEx guidance, we're guiding from first half this year to the second half that our CapEx is going to be down $1 billion.

但我想補充的是，也許從今年上半年到明年下半年，我們已經開始看到現金流拐點的到來。如果你看一下我們的資本支出指導，我們預測從今年上半年到下半年我們的資本支出將下降 10 億美元。

You can see from our CFO from the first half to the second half that we're also going to have some tailwinds from higher APLNG distributions and the One Big Beautiful Bill. So when you look at that, and that continues on into 2026, I'd actually say that the cash flow inflection is effectively already starting.

您可以從我們的財務長那裡看到，從上半年到下半年，我們還將獲得更高的 APLNG 分銷和 One Big Beautiful Bill 帶來的一些順風。因此，當您看到這一點，並且這種情況持續到 2026 年時，我實際上會說現金流拐點實際上已經開始了。

Nitin Kumar, Mizuho.

瑞穗的尼廷‧庫馬爾 (Nitin Kumar)。

Hi, good afternoon, good morning, everyone. Ryan, one of your peers talked about industry consolidation going forward. You mentioned in the last three to four years you've been at the forefront of that. So just want to get a take on where do you see the M&A landscape right now, particularly in the Lower 48.

大家好，下午好，早安。瑞安，你的一位同事談到了未來的產業整合。您提到在過去的三到四年裡您一直處於這一領域的前沿。所以我只是想知道您如何看待目前的併購形勢，特別是在美國本土 48 個州。

Yeah, look, I think there's still going to be consolidation in this business. I think a lot of the E&Ps in the unconventional space look out into their plans two to three years out and wonder what's going to happen. And I think -- and that hasn't changed as capital intensity. People that don't have the inventory like we do face higher capital intensities and just what do they do about that. Now specific to us, this is the strongest, I think, our portfolio has ever been. And so it's a pretty high bar, and we're focused pretty heavily right now on the organic side of the business, where the investments that we're making to grow and develop the company both short, medium, and long term.

是的，我認為這個行業仍將整合。我認為，許多非常規領域的勘探與生產公司都會展望未來兩到三年的計劃，並思考未來會發生什麼。我認為－資本密集度並沒有改變。那些沒有像我們一樣庫存的人面臨著更高的資本密集度，他們該怎麼做呢？現在具體到我們來說，我認為這是我們投資組合迄今為止最強大的。所以這是一個相當高的標準，我們現在非常注重業務的有機方面，我們為公司短期、中期和長期的成長和發展所做的投資。

So I think that's where all of our focus is going. But, look, we watch the market every day. We see what other people are doing. And I'm familiar with the comments that were made by one of our peers. But you know we're just in a different position because of the effort and what we've done over the last four years that you pointed out, and then the focus we're trying to drive internal to the company to chase another $1 billion of additional cash flow growth in the company.

所以我認為這就是我們全部注意力的所在。但是，你看，我們每天都在關注市場。我們看看其他人在做什麼。我也熟悉我們的一位同事所發表的評論。但您知道，正如您所指出的，由於我們過去四年的努力和所做的事情，我們現在處於不同的位置，然後我們試圖將重點放在公司內部，以追求公司另外 10 億美元的額外現金流增長。

We see the inflection that Andy just talked about in our free cash flow coming as these projects start starting up over the course of the next three to four years. So we've got a pretty high bar and a pretty full plate today just executing on our organic plans.

隨著這些計畫在未來三到四年內開始啟動，我們看到安迪剛才談到的自由現金流的轉折點即將到來。因此，我們今天的標準很高，而且任務也很繁重，只是在執行我們的有機計劃。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德、派珀·桑德勒。

Great, thanks. Maybe a question on the on the Marathon transaction. You increased your expectation for the incremental resource adds from 2 billion to 2.5 billion barrels with a doubling of resource -- estimated resource in the Permian. Can you talk about what's driving that? What's been better than expected, particularly in the Permian?

太好了，謝謝。也許是關於馬拉松交易的問題。您將增量資源預期從 20 億桶提高到 25 億桶，二疊紀的估計資源量將增加一倍。您能談談是什麼原因導致這現象的發生嗎？哪些方面比預期更好，特別是在二疊紀？

Yeah, Ryan. Good morning. As a reminder for the folks on the call, the Marathon transaction, we announced the 2 billion barrels of low cost of supply resource. Now we've got eight months under the Marathon hood to further assess the inventory and the development strategy across all the assets. As Andy mentioned, after completing the integration, we've got a 25% increase. So that's the 2.5 billion.

是的，瑞安。早安.提醒電話會議中的各位，在馬拉松交易中，我們宣布了 20 億桶低成本供應資源。現在，我們有八個月的時間在馬拉鬆的領導下進一步評估所有資產的庫存和發展策略。正如安迪所提到的，完成整合後，我們的收入成長了 25%。這就是25億。

Now we were clear at the time of the acquisition that the quality positions in the Eagle Ford and Bakken were the primary strategic rationale for the transaction. And we're seeing on aggregate, the performance in those two basins have been in line to even better than we expected with very strong well productivity versus the acquisition case.

現在我們在收購時就明確了，Eagle Ford 和 Bakken 的優質地位是這筆交易的主要策略理由。整體來看，我們看到，這兩個盆地的表現比我們預期的還要好，與收購情況相比，油井產能非常強勁。

Now the upside identified, as Andy mentioned, is primarily in the Delaware Basin, where we've approximately doubled our low cost of supply resource estimate with some additional resource in the Bakken, as well.

正如安迪所提到的，現在發現的優勢主要在於特拉華盆地，我們在那裡將低成本供應資源估算值提高了約一倍，同時在巴肯也有一些額外的資源。

Now in the Permian, this is largely driven by a greater contribution of both primary and secondary intervals across the play. For example, we got inventory across Wolfcamp A and C, Bone Springs and Woodford formations, which are very competitive cost of supply.

現在在二疊紀，這主要是由於整個區塊的主要和次要間隔的更大貢獻所致。例如，我們在 Wolfcamp A 和 C、Bone Springs 和 Woodford 地層都有庫存，供應成本非常有競爭力。

And Ryan, that's through really reassessing the inventory and applying our development strategy, including spacing and stacking. In fact, we're drilling some Wolfcamp A and C wells, as well as some Woodford wells, right now and seeing really promising results in line or even better than the type curves.

瑞安，這是透過重新評估庫存並應用我們的開發策略（包括間隔和堆疊）來實現的。事實上，我們目前正在鑽探一些 Wolfcamp A 和 C 井，以及一些 Woodford 井，並且看到了與標準曲線一致甚至更好的結果。

In addition to the inventory I just described, we're also seeing opportunities to trade acreage to core up positions, adding more longer laterals, which improves the cost of supply. If you go from a 1- to a 3-mile lateral, we see that 30% to 40% improvement.

除了我剛才描述的庫存之外，我們還看到了透過交易土地面積來增加核心部位、增加更長的水平井的機會，這可以改善供應成本。如果從 1 英里橫向延伸到 3 英里橫向延伸，我們會看到 30% 到 40% 的改善。

So I just got the, hats off to the team as we get under the hood, they're excited. There's more opportunities in there. So getting ready, enthused to execute upon it.

因此，當我們深入研究時，我向團隊表示敬意，他們很興奮。那裡還有更多機會。因此做好準備，並熱衷於執行它。

Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Scott Hanold。

Yeah, thanks. Ryan, it would be good to hear your view of what you're seeing on the old macro front. Obviously, if we wind the clock back last quarter, there's a lot of uncertainty. Oil price obviously has firmed up. I know you all do a lot of work, but I'd be interested in your thoughts on what you're seeing right now, and how that could shape your plans into '26?

是的，謝謝。瑞安，很高興聽到你對舊宏觀的看法。顯然，如果我們回顧上個季度，就會發現有很多不確定性。油價明顯走強。我知道你們都做了很多工作，但我感興趣的是你們對目前所見事物的看法，以及這些看法將如何影響你們 26 年的計劃？

Yeah. Thanks, Scott. I think I described it as choppy this morning on CNBC, I think. And that's kind of our, let's say, short near-term view of the macro. Look, the OPEC Plus group has added about -- they've unwound all the 2.2 million barrels a day of cuts and then they added 300,000 more allocation to the UAE, bringing that to 2.5 million.

是的。謝謝，斯科特。我想我今天早上在 CNBC 上把它描述為波動的。這就是我們對宏觀的短期短期看法。你看，OPEC+組織已經取消了每天 220 萬桶的減產，然後又向阿聯酋增加了 30 萬桶的配額，使配額達到 250 萬桶。

Our internal view is about 800,000 of that is already in the market. So of that 2.5 million, you take 800,000 off. So there's about 1.7 million barrels a day true incremental production. But it hasn't shown up in exports either because of the power burn and all the summer burn in the Middle East that's going on right now.

我們內部的看法是，其中約 80 萬人已進入市場。所以在這 250 萬中，你要減掉 80 萬。因此，每天的實際增量產量約為 170 萬桶。但由於中東地區目前正在經歷電力短缺和夏季高溫，出口也並未出現成長。

And the demand grew in the first half, a little bit more than what we would have predicted a little bit over 1 million barrels a day. I think for the full year, we're still at about 800,000 barrels a day of demand increases coming forward.

上半年的需求增加，略高於我們預測的每天 100 萬桶以上。我認為，就全年而言，我們每天的需求量仍將增加約 80 萬桶。

So you can see it's a bit imbalanced, more supply than the demand in the short term. But we got to remember that inventories that are five-year low. Certainly, here in the U.S., we're seeing some early indication that floating inventories might be coming up a little bit. Certainly, China is filling their SPR right now to feed their two bat refineries.

所以你可以看到它有點不平衡，短期內供應大於需求。但我們必須記住，庫存處於五年來的最低水準。當然，在美國，我們看到一些早期跡象表明浮動庫存可能會略有增加。當然，中國目前正在補充戰略石油儲備，以滿足其兩家煉油廠的需求。

So there is a lot of moving pieces, as you say. So how do we think about that? We step back, we see the choppiness, although prices are hanging in about at our mid-cycle price, and they've been relatively stable in the 60s. So we see probably that continuing with probably a bit more pressure to the downside, which is why Andy talked about how we're executing our program, and kind of how you should think about modeling our production as we go into 2026.

正如您所說，有很多活動部件。那我們該如何看待這個問題呢？我們退一步來看，我們看到了波動，儘管價格徘徊在週期中期價格附近，並且在 60 年代相對穩定。因此，我們可能會看到下行壓力繼續加大，這就是為什麼安迪談到我們如何執行我們的計劃，以及在進入 2026 年時應該如何考慮對我們的生產進行建模。

And that's just -- we probably see a little bit of choppiness and some slight headwinds as we go, but we're very constructive when you start stepping back for a minute and thinking about the longer term. We see demand continuing to grow at 1 million barrel a day incremental clip or at all-time highs in the demand side, and we don't think that's stopping.

這只是——我們在前進的過程中可能會遇到一些波動和輕微的阻力，但當你開始退一步思考並考慮更長遠的未來時，我們會非常有建設性。我們看到需求繼續以每天 100 萬桶的增量速度增長，或達到需求方面的歷史最高水平，而且我們認為這種增長不會停止。

So we do wonder where the supply is going to come to fill that growing demand over the next two, three, four, five years and beyond, which was our view over the last few years, which is why we're leaning into some of the longer-cycle projects.

因此，我們確實想知道，在未來兩年、三年、四年、五年甚至更長時間內，供應將從何而來，以滿足日益增長的需求，這也是我們過去幾年的觀點，這也是我們傾向於一些週期較長的項目的原因。

That's the oil side. And then obviously, on the gas side, we're pretty bullish there. We see the LNG market growing from a 400 million-tonne market to over 700 million-tonne market within the next 5 to 10 years, which is why we wanted to lean into the LNG side of the business. And we see a lot of resource in the U.S. to support that and to underpin that strategy. So maybe that's Reader's Digest abridged version of our view of the macro, both on the oil and the gas side.

這是石油方面。顯然，在天然氣方面，我們非常看好。我們預計未來 5 到 10 年內液化天然氣市場將從 4 億噸增加到 7 億噸以上，這就是我們想要進軍液化天然氣業務的原因。我們看到美國投入了大量資源來支持和鞏固這項策略。所以，這也許就是《讀者文摘》對我們關於石油和天然氣的宏觀觀點的精簡版。

Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

查爾斯·米德、約翰遜·賴斯。

Good morning, Ryan, to you and your team there. Ryan, I caught your CNBC appearance, I thought that was a fine job. I wanted to ask a question on Willow. If you could perhaps give us a bit of a preview for what -- when you do get back to work there on the ground in the winter season, what does this next winter season hold as far as key milestones and work streams and just an overview.

早安，Ryan，向你和你的團隊問好。瑞安，我看到了你在 CNBC 的亮相，我認為你做得很好。我想問一個關於 Willow 的問題。如果您可以給我們稍微預覽一下——當您在冬季回到當地工作時，下一個冬季的關鍵里程碑和工作流程是什麼，以及概述一下。

Yes, I can let Kirk take that, Charles. I would say we haven't quit working. We're pretty busy right now. We got a -- I was just up there last week. We got a full team on the slope and working through the summer and a lot of work going on in the Corpus Christi Kiewit fab yard, two building modules. but Kirk can jump in and give you a bit more specifics.

是的，我可以讓柯克拿著它，查爾斯。我想說我們還沒有停止工作。我們現在非常忙。我們得到了——我上週剛去過那裡。我們有一個完整的團隊在山坡上工作，整個夏天都在工作，在 Corpus Christi Kiewit 工廠院子裡還有很多工作要做，有兩個建築模組。但 Kirk 可以插話並給你更多細節。

Yeah, morning, Charles. Yes, certainly, as Ryan is mentioning, our execution here this year just continues to be really quite strong. We did wrap that winter season up. It was the largest that we had certainly in the last couple of years and really the largest we have here planned for the project.

是的，早上好，查爾斯。是的，當然，正如 Ryan 所提到的，我們今年的執行力仍然非常強勁。我們確實結束了那個冬季。這無疑是我們過去幾年中規模最大的項目，也是我們計畫的最大項目。

We wrapped that up late April, early May. And so we've transitioned. Again, as Ryan witnessed, we're transitioning to year-round construction up there on the slope.

我們在四月底五月初完成了這項工作。就這樣，我們完成了轉變。再次，正如瑞安所見證的，我們正在過渡到在斜坡上進行全年施工。

We actually have about 900 trades and craftsman up on the slope right now. And that's down from again, what we were seeing during this peak winter season, which was closer to 2,400, if not 2,500 people up there on the slope.

實際上，目前我們在山坡上大約有 900 名工匠。與冬季高峰期相比，這一數字有所下降，當時山坡上的人數接近 2,400 人，甚至有 2,500 人。

So it's been a pretty big transition for us here this spring. But of course, our teams are really focused now as you're alluding to, which is our, the activities we have here this summer and this fall. So with that transition, those 900 craftsman on the slope are continuing to build out that operation center that we sealifted up here last year with those modules on location.

所以今年春天對我們來說是一個相當大的轉變。但當然，正如您所提到的，我們的團隊現在真正專注於我們今年夏天和秋天在這裡進行的活動。因此，隨著這一轉變，斜坡上的 900 名工匠正在繼續建造我們去年用現場的模組海運到這裡的營運中心。

And so there's a lot of work ongoing so that we can truly begin year-round construction there in Alaska at the Willow location. And then again, as Ryan mentioned outside of Alaska, we're focused on completing engineering in support of these process modules that we're building here on the Gulf Coast. And then naturally, that's going to continue through 2027.

因此，我們也正在進行大量工作，以便我們能夠真正在阿拉斯加的 Willow 工廠開始全年施工。再說一次，正如瑞安提到的阿拉斯加以外的地方，我們專注於完成工程，以支持我們在墨西哥灣沿岸建造的這些工藝模組。自然，這種情況將持續到 2027 年。

But certainly, I would say, as it relates to the activities here this year, there's a lot of work by the team focusing appropriately on contracting, procurement, general supply chain activities. Admittedly, tariffs have introduced some level of uncertainty and that's manifesting with internationally sourced equipment alongside a trend of inflation that's pretty similar to what we've seen in the international markets.

但我肯定會說，就今年的活動而言，團隊做了很多工作，專注於承包、採購和一般供應鏈活動。無可否認，關稅帶來了一定程度的不確定性，這體現在國際採購的設備上，同時通膨趨勢與我們在國際市場上看到的非常相似。

And that's stabilizing as activity stabilize here. So it's a good time for us to put a wrapper on some of these contracts here this year. We'll have close to 90% or 95% of these contracts pretty well secured by year-end, and so a lot of work in that space.

隨著這裡的活動穩定下來，情況也趨於穩定。因此，今年是我們對這些合約進行打包的好時機。到年底，我們將確保其中近 90% 或 95% 的合約得到妥善保管，因此該領域還有很多工作要做。

So again, Charles, I would say strong execution. We're hitting the really key milestones. We have some more work, of course, in this next winter season as it relates to gravel on the North Slope, continuing to build that out towards the next set of pads and kind of wrapping up the last pieces around pipelines and a bit of civil work.

所以查爾斯，我再說一遍，執行力很強。我們正在實現真正關鍵的里程碑。當然，在下一個冬季，我們還有一些工作要做，這涉及到北坡的礫石，繼續建造下一組墊塊，並完成管道和一些土木工程的最後部分。

So certainly more to come, but the milestones we're achieving, we're hitting those as we expect. And so it just continues to give us a lot of confidence in execution and strong expectations again around 2029 and first oil.

所以肯定還會有更多，但我們正在實現的里程碑，正如我們預期的那樣。因此，它繼續讓我們對執行充滿信心，並對 2029 年左右首次開採石油抱有強烈期望。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Ryan, I want to ask about Eagle Ford. But before that, can I just sneak in and just clarify all that confirmed will though the CapEx is still at $7 billion. And in terms of Eagle Ford, with the Marathon deal, they do have some really decent assets there. Can you give us an outlook where that you see Eagle Ford on a longer-term basis? I mean I think in the past that you have a view where that Eagle Ford you get to maybe for you guys, they call you 300,000 barrels a day. Now, with this better performance in the second quarter and also the much larger resource base, how should we look at Eagle from your portfolio? Thank you.

謝謝。大家早安。瑞安，我想問一下 Eagle Ford 的情況。但在此之前，我能否先偷偷地澄清所有已確認的意願，儘管資本支出仍為 70 億美元。就 Eagle Ford 而言，透過與 Marathon 的交易，他們確實在那裡擁有一些非常好的資產。您能否向我們介紹一下您對 Eagle Ford 的長期展望？我的意思是，我認為過去你們有這樣一種觀點，即你們到達 Eagle Ford 的石油產量可能為每天 30 萬桶。現在，鑑於第二季業績表現更好以及資源基礎更大，我們應該如何看待 Eagle 的投資組合？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks Paul. I can let Nick chime in on the portfolio part. I think we're seeing everything and then some based on the acquisition case we had for Marathon and some of the well results that I've seen over the last few months coming out of Eagle Ford on the Marathon acreage in particular, let alone our acreage, has given us a lot of comfort in the case. And we're seeing upside out of that as well. And I can let Nick talk a little bit about the longer-term perspective we might see in the Eagle Ford.

是的，謝謝保羅。我可以讓尼克加入投資組合部分。我認為，我們已經看到了一切，然後根據我們對馬拉鬆的收購案例，以及過去幾個月我在鷹福特馬拉松油田（尤其是我們的油田）看到的一些良好結果，這給了我們很大的安慰。我們也看到了其中的好處。我可以讓尼克稍微談談我們在鷹福特可能看到的長期前景。

Yeah, thanks, Paul. Maybe just talk about short term here on the Eagle Ford. Obviously, as you pointed out, we had a really strong quarter related to Eagle Ford production, had really strong base production as well as new wells coming online. We actually had a little bit of lumpiness, about 10% more wells online in 2Q in Eagle Ford. So you saw that slight bump in production. I will say, we're really starting to get our understanding around the heritage Marathon component in Eagle Ford. And what we're seeing there, Paul, is the wells are performing at or above type curve. So that's really good.

是的，謝謝，保羅。也許只是談論 Eagle Ford 的短期情況。顯然，正如您所指出的，我們本季的 Eagle Ford 生產表現非常強勁，基礎產量也非常強勁，新油井也已上線。我們實際上遇到了一些不平衡的情況，第二季度 Eagle Ford 的上線油井數量增加了約 10%。所以你看到產量略有增加。我想說的是，我們真的開始了解鷹福特的傳統馬拉松部分。保羅，我們看到的是油井的生產狀況達到或超過了曲線類型。這真的很好。

I also say in Eagle Ford, it's -- we're sharing best practices across heritage Marathon, heritage COP. And you may have heard that we had our best year ever in drilling within that asset. We had a 13% improvement in feet per day by combining best practices and drilling. So just hats off to the team there.

我還要說，在鷹福特，我們正在分享遺產馬拉松、遺產 COP 的最佳實踐。您可能已經聽說過，我們在該資產範圍內的鑽探業務經歷了有史以來最好的一年。透過結合最佳實踐和鑽探，我們每天的產量提高了 13%。我向那裡的團隊表示敬意。

A couple of other things on near term, one of the things related to the acquisition. We're also sharing our facilities and being able to combine those two, where we can reroute production, we can shelter maintenance, and that's leading to that increased production as well. So in summary, a really strong Q2.

近期還有幾件事，其中一件與收購有關。我們還共享我們的設施，並能夠將兩者結合起來，我們可以重新安排生產，我們可以進行維護，這也可以提高產量。總而言之，第二季表現非常強勁。

Now, if I look longer term, as Ryan mentioned, when you take a look at the inventory combined for Eagle Ford, we have an industry-leading position. We're sitting on 15 years of inventory. That's at current rig activities levels and now hold a significant share of the remaining Tier 1 inventory in the play. No one else comes close to that.

現在，如果我從長遠來看，正如 Ryan 提到的那樣，當你查看 Eagle Ford 的綜合庫存時，我們處於行業領先地位。我們擁有 15 年的庫存。這是按照目前的鑽井活動水準進行的，目前佔據了該油田剩餘一級庫存的很大份額。沒有人能與之相比。

Longer term, we're continuing to assess the optimum plateau of that asset. And we'll give you an update. One of the things we're looking at is the ongoing efficiencies that we continue to see outperform quarter-to-quarter. And so dialing into an exact plateau remains ongoing discussion.

從長遠來看，我們將繼續評估該資產的最佳水準。我們將向您提供最新消息。我們正在關注的事情之一是持續的效率，我們繼續看到其逐季度表現優異。因此，關於撥入準確平台期的討論仍在進行中。

But that said, we'll land somewhere modestly below 2Q production as we go forward here in the near term. So really strong performance across Eagle Ford, really strong, what we're seeing with the well results.

但話雖如此，短期內我們的產量仍將略低於第二季的水平。因此，我們看到 Eagle Ford 的表現確實非常強勁，非常強勁。

Leo Mariani, ROTH.

裡奧·馬裡亞尼（Leo Mariani），羅斯（ROTH）。

I just wanted to follow up a little bit on the asset sales here. Can you maybe give us what the rough production split is on the 40,000 barrel a day you're selling there in the Anadarko in terms of oil and gas?

我只是想稍微跟進一下這裡的資產銷售狀況。您能否告訴我們，你們在阿納達科銷售的每天 40,000 桶石油和天然氣的粗略產量分配情況？

And then can you just talk a little bit about the timing on asset sales. Was there a particular reason you decided to kind of increase it right now. Certainly, a lot of the conversation on the call is talking about kind of macro uncertainty out there. So maybe just kind of talk about the environment to sell stuff now.

然後能否稍微談談資產出售的時機。您決定現在增加它有什麼特別的原因嗎？當然，電話會議中的許多談話都在談論宏觀不確定性。所以現在也許只是在談論銷售產品的環境。

Yeah. No. Thanks, Leo. I think we're -- yeah, we -- again, I tried to describe, we just go through a standard process inside our company to identify potential assets that we think would be worth more to other people than they are to us. And that's certainly proven out in the Anadarko Basin asset sale, too.

是的。不。謝謝，Leo。我認為我們——是的，我們——我再次嘗試描述，我們只是在公司內部進行一個標準流程來識別我們認為對其他人來說比對我們更有價值的潛在資產。阿納達科盆地資產出售也確實證明了這一點。

I can have Guy come back to you with the -- I don't know the -- it was mostly gas, but I don't know what the liquids mix is on that 30,000 barrels a day, but Guy can come back and provide that to you. And look, we don't -- we'll sell assets when we think we're getting good value for them. Look, we know what our hold value is. We know what they're worth to us inside the portfolio. We're not fire selling anything in the company. And there's assets that we've marketed that we haven't sold. And we haven't sold because either the macro, current macro environment wasn’t supportive of it. And again, we know what our hold value is, and we know what the market is, and we'll move them out.

我可以讓蓋伊回來給你提供——我不知道——主要是天然氣，但我不知道每天 30,000 桶的液體混合物是什麼，但蓋伊可以回來提供給你。你看，我們不會——當我們認為資產能帶來好的價值時，我們才會出售資產。看，我們知道我們的持有價值是多少。我們知道它們在投資組合中對我們來說值多少錢。我們不會以低價出售公司裡的任何東西。我們還有一些已行銷但尚未出售的資產。但我們還沒有出售，因為當前的宏觀環境不支持這樣做。再說一次，我們知道我們的持有價值是多少，我們知道市場是什麼樣的，我們會把它們轉移出去。

As we look across that portfolio of opportunities for the company, we felt comfortable with the $5 billion target by the end of next year. So feel comfortable we've got those assets to kind of sell, and we're hard at work trying to deliver that.

當我們審視公司的機會組合時，我們對明年年底實現 50 億美元的目標感到滿意。所以請放心，我們有這些資產可以出售，而且我們正在努力實現這一目標。

Philip Jungwirth, BMO.

菲利普·榮威爾斯（BMO）。

Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about return on capital. Conoco has historically been a leader here among the independents and integrated. We have seen corporate returns come down across the sector, much of which is oil price, but also M&A.

感謝您回答這個問題。我想問一下資本報酬率。康菲公司一直是獨立公司和綜合公司中的領導者。我們看到整個產業的企業回報率都在下降，其中很大一部分原因是油價，但也包括併購。

So when you look at the organic $6 billion free cash inflection that you have for major project start-ups, I was hoping you can talk to how this improves ROCE by the end of the decade? Or there'll be more improvement really from accelerating the Lower 48 growth at the right commodity price?

因此，當您看到為主要項目啟動而產生的 60 億美元有機自由現金流時，我希望您能談談這將如何在 2020 年前提高 ROCE？或者說，以合適的商品價格加速美國本土 48 州的成長真的會帶來更多改善嗎？

Yeah, Phil, look, all these projects that we're executing meet our cost of supply hurdles. So almost kind of doesn't matter where you allocate, you're going to see the growth in the ROCE. And that's what we're trying to drive inside the company.

是的，菲爾，你看，我們正在執行的所有這些項目都滿足了我們的供應成本障礙。因此，幾乎無論您分配到哪裡，您都會看到 ROCE 的成長。這正是我們試圖在公司內部推動的。

We're trying to be competitive with the S&P 500, not just competitive with our peers in this industry, we want to outperform even the S&P 500, give investors a resource or an E&P choice that they can invest in that can deliver year in, year out through the cycles, competitive ROC. And obviously, when the price whistles down as much as it did in the COVID year, it's tough. In 2022, it was pretty damn good as prices whiz back.

我們試圖與標準普爾 500 指數競爭，而不僅僅是與這個行業的同行競爭，我們希望超越標準普爾 500 指數，為投資者提供一種資源或 E&P 選擇，他們可以進行投資，並且能夠年復一年地在周期中實現具有競爭力的 ROC。顯然，當價格像新冠疫情那年那樣大幅下跌時，情況就變得艱難了。2022 年，價格快速回升，情勢相當不錯。

But we're trying to deliver through the cycle, ROCE improvements and invest to compete against the S&P 500. That's what we're about. That's what -- that's how our performance gets judged, and that's what we're trying to go do. And as you inflect your free cash flow, $6 billion, $7 billion over the course of the next three to four years, obviously, the CFO is growing.

但我們正努力透過週期實現 ROCE 改善，並進行投資以與標準普爾 500 指數競爭。這就是我們要做的。這就是——這就是我們評判表現的方式，也是我們正在努力做的事情。隨著你的自由現金流在未來三到四年內達到 60 億美元、70 億美元，顯然財務長也在成長。

And we have -- we do have a unique value proposition in this business, which is you get your CFO off the top from us. We have a commitment of a minimum of 30% at a mid-cycle price. And when prices have exceeded that, like they have for the last number of years, we've given a lot more of that CFO back, about 45%.

而且我們在這個行業中確實有一個獨特的價值主張，那就是您可以從我們這裡獲得財務長的幫助。我們承諾以中期價格提供至少 30% 的收益。當價格超過該水平時，就像過去幾年一樣，我們會返還更多的 CFO，大約 45%。

So that's what we're signaling again this year, and we don't see that changing. So as that free cash flow on inflect and our CFO grows, distributions are going to grow with that. The opportunity to invest in our organic programs come with that and strengthening the balance sheet comes with that as well. But absolutely, as our cash flow grows and free cash flow grows, distributions grow as well. And we're investing in the right things. We believe and what we're investing in, our ROCE will grow on a mid-cycle case basis as well.

這就是我們今年再次發出的信號，我們認為這種情況不會改變。因此，隨著自由現金流的增加和我們財務長的成長，分配也會隨之成長。隨之而來的是投資我們有機項目的機會以及加強資產負債表的機會。但毫無疑問的是，隨著我們的現金流和自由現金流的成長，分配也會成長。我們正在投資正確的事情。我們相信，我們所投資的 ROCE 也將在中期週期基礎上成長。

Kalei Akamine, Bank of America.

卡雷‧阿卡明 (Kalei Akamine)，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thank you very much for squeezing me in. Look, I appreciate the strong performance in Lower 48. Last time you guys had an outlook on a multiyear basis was in 2023. And you suggested that there will be a capital ramp through the early 2030s. But when you look at the business today and the efficiency is achieved, it appears that you're still in the same production track. So kind of wondering if you can hit those production targets without adding significant activity or without any change in CapEx.

嘿，大家早安。非常感謝您抽空接待我。瞧，我很欣賞美國本土 48 州的出色表現。你們上次做出多年期展望是在 2023 年。您也提到，到 2030 年代初，資本將會增加。但當你審視今天的業務並實現效率時，似乎你仍然處於相同的生產軌道上。所以有點想知道你是否可以在不增加大量活動或不改變資本支出的情況下實現這些生產目標。

Yeah. I mean that's the name of this game. You've got to be capital light, capital efficient. And that's how you grow your ROCE and that's how you grow your distributions and your free cash flow. So you're right to observe the last time we updated the market, since then we've done the Marathon transaction. As I think Andy alluded to in some of his questions and comments, we haven't added a rig line, any one of the last three to four years, we're still delivering the production growth out of Lower 48. We're just being a lot more efficient, a lot less capital spend, and that's the name of the game.

是的。我的意思是這就是這個遊戲的名字。你必須輕資本、有效率資本。這就是您增加 ROCE 的方式，也是您增加分配和自由現金流的方式。所以你觀察得對，上次我們更新市場後，我們就進行了馬拉松交易。我認為安迪在他的一些問題和評論中提到過，在過去的三到四年裡，我們都沒有增加一條鑽井線，我們仍然在美國本土 48 個州實現產量成長。我們只是變得更有效率，資本支出減少，這就是遊戲的名稱。

So we start every year thinking about, let's just keep the scope of what we're doing, constant. And as Andy said in his response to one of the questions, the production or the growth that comes out of that is purely an output. We will always start or trying to keep our stable programs in place. We don't want to whipsaw them up. We don't like to whipsaw them down.

因此，我們每年都會開始思考，讓我們所做的事情的範圍保持不變。正如安迪在回答其中一個問題時所說，由此產生的生產或成長純粹是一種產出。我們將始終啟動或努力維持我們穩定的計劃。我們不想讓他們陷入困境。我們不喜歡對他們施加太大的壓力。

And obviously, we can react to both sides of that environment, but we like the consistent, stable execution and programs. And we haven't added a rig line or significantly increased the frac spreads. And we're operating within a pretty efficient frontier range where one frac spread can handle three to four rig lines.

顯然，我們可以對該環境的兩面做出反應，但我們喜歡一致、穩定的執行和程序。我們還沒有增加鑽井線或大幅增加壓裂幅度。而且，我們的作業處於一個相當高效的前沿範圍內，一個壓裂範圍可以處理三到四條鑽井線。

And that's improving with the technology, and we want to be improving with that as well. So I think we have a lot of flexibility. We have a lot of inventory and deep diverse inventory. So we've got a lot of choices and options. And as I said in one of my comments earlier, that it's really the best place and the strongest portfolio we've ever had as a company.

隨著科技的發展，這種情況正在不斷改善，我們也希望這種情況能得到改善。所以我認為我們有很大彈性。我們擁有大量庫存和種類繁多的庫存。所以我們有很多選擇和選項。正如我之前在評論中所說，這確實是我們公司有史以來最好的位置和最強大的投資組合。

We have no further questions at this time. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前我們沒有其他問題。謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。