康菲 (COP) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 ConocoPhillips Earnings Conference Call. My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Phil Gresh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

歡迎參加康菲石油公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫莉茲，我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。 （操作員指示）我現在將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Phil Gresh。先生，您可以開始了。

Yes. Thank you, and welcome to everyone, to our third quarter 2023 earnings conference call.

是的。謝謝並歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Tim Leach, Adviser to the CEO; Bill Bullock, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Dominic Macklon, Executive Vice President of Strategy, Sustainability and Technology; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48; Andy O'Brien, Senior Vice President of Global Operations; Kirk Johnson, Senior Vice President, Lower 48, Assets and Operations; and Will Giraud, Senior Vice President, Corporate Planning and Development.

今天參加電話會議的有康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾位成員，包括董事長兼執行長 Ryan Lance；提姆·利奇（Tim Leach），執行長顧問；比爾‧布洛克，執行副總裁兼財務長； Dominic Macklon，策略、永續發展與技術執行副總裁； Nick Olds，Lower 48 執行副總裁；安迪‧奧布萊恩 (Andy O'Brien)，全球營運資深副總裁； Kirk Johnson，Lower 48 資產與營運資深副總裁；以及企業規劃與發展資深副總裁 Will Giraud。

Brian and Bill will kick it off with opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions.

布萊恩和比爾將以開場白開始，之後團隊將回答您的問題。

A few quick reminders. First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation, which you can find on the Investor Relations website.

一些快速提醒。首先，除了今天的發布之外，我們還發布了補充財務資料和幻燈片演示文稿，您可以在投資者關係網站上找到這些資料。

Second, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release, and in our periodic SEC filings. We will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website. And before I turn it over, I just want to flag for today, we'll do 1 question per caller.

其次，在這次電話會議中，我們將根據目前預期做出前瞻性陳述。由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期向 SEC 提交的文件中提到的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。我們將參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的調整表。在我把它轉過來之前，我只想提醒一下，今天我們將為每個來電者回答 1 個問題。

So with that, let me turn it over to Ryan.

那麼，讓我把它交給瑞安。

Thank you, Phil, and thank you to everyone for joining our third quarter 2023 earnings conference call.

謝謝菲爾，也謝謝大家參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

It was another solid quarter for ConocoPhillips, as the team continued to deliver strong underlying performance across the portfolio, and we have achieved several additional project milestones in our international portfolio in early October.

對於康菲石油公司來說，這是另一個穩健的季度，因為團隊繼續在整個投資組合中提供強勁的基礎業績，並且我們在 10 月初在國際投資組合中實現了幾個額外的專案里程碑。

Now before I get into the details, I wanted to address the topical news in the industry, which has been the M&A headlines in recent weeks. This is not a surprise to us. We have long said that we expect to see further industry consolidation. ConocoPhillips remains steadfast in our returns-focused value proposition and cost of supply principles, which creates a high bar for M&A. And as a reminder, we've been actively high grading our own portfolio over the past several years.

在詳細介紹之前，我想先談談行業中的熱門新聞，這些新聞一直是最近幾週的併購頭條新聞。這對我們來說並不奇怪。我們早就說過，我們預期會看到進一步的產業整合。康菲石油公司始終堅持以回報為中心的價值主張和供應成本原則，這為併購設立了很高的門檻。提醒一下，在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在積極地對自己的投資組合進行高評級。

And as a recent example, we are pleased to have closed on the acquisition of the remaining 50% of Surmont, in early October. An opportunity came along to acquire this asset at a very attractive price that fit our financial framework, an asset we can make better through our full ownership and an acquisition that makes our 10-year plan even better.

舉個最近的例子，我們很高興在 10 月初完成了對 Surmont 剩餘 50% 股份的收購。我們有機會以非常有吸引力的價格收購該資產，該價格符合我們的財務框架，我們可以透過完全擁有該資產來改善這一資產，而這次收購可以使我們的十年計劃變得更好。

Surmont is a long life, low declining and low capital intensity asset that we know well. We achieved first steam from Pad 267 in the third quarter, and production is expected to start up in the first quarter of 2024. This is our first new pad addition since 2016, and as we said at our recent analyst meeting, we can leverage existing infrastructure to add additional pads with very limited capital requirements in the years ahead.

Surmont 是我們熟知的壽命長、損耗低、資本密集度低的資產。我們在第三季實現了Pad 267 的第一批生產，預計將於2024 年第一季開始生產。這是我們自2016 年以來首次添加新的墊，正如我們在最近的分析師會議上所說，我們可以利用現有的基礎設施，以在未來幾年以非常有限的資本需求增加額外的墊。

Now moving to global LNG. We've also continued to progress our strategy, securing 1.5 MTPA regas capacity at the Gate LNG terminal in the Netherlands. This will take our total European regas capacity to 4.3 MTPA. We have now effectively secured destinations for nearly half of our Port Arthur LNG offtake commitment in the first 6 months. since we sanctioned the project.

現在轉向全球液化天然氣。我們也持續推動我們的策略，確保荷蘭 Gate 液化天然氣終端 1.5 MTPA 的再氣化能力。這將使我們歐洲的總再氣化能力達到 4.3 MTPA。目前，我們已經有效地確保了前 6 個月內近一半的亞瑟港液化天然氣承購承諾的目的地。自從我們批准了這個專案以來。

Now elsewhere in the international portfolio, we started up our second central processing facility, CPF2 in the Montney. And in Norway, we just announced that we have started up 3 project developments ahead of schedule in October. This includes the company-operated Tommeliten Alpha A, subsea tieback project at Ekofisk, which is nearly 6 months earlier than originally planned as well as 2 nonoperated projects.

現在，在國際投資組合的其他地方，我們啟動了第二個中央處理設施，位於蒙特尼的 CPF2。在挪威，我們剛剛宣布我們已在 10 月提前啟動了 3 個專案開發。其中包括該公司營運的 Ekofisk 海底回接專案 Tommeliten Alpha A（比原計劃提前了近 6 個月）以及 2 個未營運的專案。

Finally, in China, our partner started at Bohai Phase 4b ahead of schedule, in October. So as you can see, our diversified international portfolio continues to be a strong differentiator for our company.

最後，在中國，我們的合作夥伴在 10 月提前啟動了渤海 4b 期計畫。正如您所看到的，我們多元化的國際投資組合仍然是我們公司的強大差異化因素。

Shifting to results. We have record global and Lower 48 production in the third quarter, and we raised our full year production guidance to account for the closing of the Surmont acquisition, all this while achieving continued capital efficiency improvements as our full year capital guidance remains unchanged.

轉向結果。第三季度，我們的全球和 Lower 48 產量創歷史新高，我們提高了全年產量指導，以應對 Surmont 收購的完成，同時實現了資本效率的持續提高，因為我們的全年資本指導保持不變。

We also continued to deliver on our returns to our shareholders. We increased our quarterly ordinary dividend by 14%, consistent with our long-term objective to deliver top quartile increases relative to the S&P 500. We have distributed $8.5 billion in dividends and buybacks year-to-date, and we remain on track for our $11 billion full year target. And we did this while funding the shorter and longer-term organic capital growth opportunities that we see across the entire portfolio.

我們也繼續為股東帶來回報。我們將季度普通股息增加了14%，這符合我們的長期目標，即相對於標準普爾500 指數實現前四分之一的增長。今年迄今，我們已分配了85 億美元的股息和回購，並且我們仍將繼續實現我們的目標。全年目標 110 億美元。我們這樣做的同時，也為我們在整個投資組合中看到的短期和長期有機資本成長機會提供了資金。

The team continues to execute well. Our deep durable and diversified asset base continues to get better and better, and we are well positioned to generate competitive returns, and cash flow for decades to come.

該團隊繼續表現良好。我們深厚、持久和多元化的資產基礎不斷變得越來越好，我們有能力在未來幾十年產生有競爭力的回報和現金流。

Now let me turn the call over to Bill to cover our third quarter performance in more detail.

現在讓我將電話轉給比爾，更詳細地介紹我們第三季的業績。

Thanks, Ryan. In the third quarter, we generated $2.16 per share in adjusted earnings. We produced 1,806,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 3% underlying growth year-over-year. Planned turnarounds were successfully completed in Norway and Alaska and Lower 48 production averaged 1,083,000 barrels a day equivalent per day, including 722,000 from the Permian, 232,000 from the Eagle Ford, and 111,000 from the Bakken. Lower 48 underlying production grew 8% year-on-year with new wells online and strong well performance relative to our expectations.

謝謝，瑞安。第三季度，我們調整後每股收益為 2.16 美元。我們每天生產 1,806,000 桶油當量，年增 3%。挪威和阿拉斯加的計畫週轉已成功完成，Lower 48 產量平均每天為 1,083,000 桶當量，其中二疊紀盆地產量為 722,000 桶，Eagle Ford 產量為 232,000 桶，巴肯產量為 111,000 桶。下 48 個基礎產量年增 8%，新井上線且油井表現相對於我們的預期強勁。

Moving to cash flows. Third quarter CFO was $5.5 billion, including APLNG distributions of $442 million. Third quarter capital expenditures were $2.5 billion which included $360 million for longer cycle projects. And through the end of the third quarter, we have now funded $875 million for Port Arthur LNG, out of our planned $1.1 billion for the year.

轉向現金流。第三季財務長為 55 億美元，其中 APLNG 分配額為 4.42 億美元。第三季資本支出為 25 億美元，其中包括較長週期項目的 3.6 億美元。截至第三季末，我們已為亞瑟港液化天然氣計畫提供了 8.75 億美元的資金，而今年計畫的資金為 11 億美元。

Regarding returns of capital, we delivered $2.6 billion to shareholders in the third quarter. This was via $1.3 billion in share buybacks and $1.3 billion in ordinary dividends and VROC payments. And today, as Ryan said, we announced an increase to our ordinary dividend of 14% to $0.58 per share. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $9.7 billion, which included proceeds from the $2.7 billion of long-term debt that we issued to fund the Surmont acquisition, which closed in early October.

在資本回報方面，我們第三季向股東交付了 26 億美元。這是透過 13 億美元的股票回購以及 13 億美元的普通股息和 VROC 支付實現的。今天，正如 Ryan 所說，我們宣布將普通股息提高 14% 至每股 0.58 美元。截至本季末，我們的現金和短期投資為 97 億美元，其中包括我們為資助 Surmont 收購而發行的 27 億美元長期債務收益，該收購已於 10 月初完成。

Before shifting to guidance, I do want to take a quick moment to update about our VROC. Beginning in 2024, we will be aligning both the announcement timing and subsequent payment of our VROC with our ordinary dividend. Therefore, you can expect us to provide details on our first quarter VROC payment on the fourth quarter call in February.

在轉向指導之前，我確實想花點時間來更新我們的 VROC。從 2024 年開始，我們將調整 VROC 的公告時間和後續支付與普通股息。因此，您可以期待我們在 2 月的第四季度電話會議上提供第一季 VROC 付款的詳細資訊。

Now turning to guidance, which now reflects additional 50% of Surmont starting in early October, we forecast fourth quarter production to be in a range of 1.86 million to 1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Full year production guidance is now roughly 1.82 million barrels of oil equivalent a day.

現在轉向指導，該指導反映了從 10 月初開始的 Surmont 額外 50% 的產量，我們預測第四季度產量將在每天 186 萬桶至 190 萬桶油當量之間。目前全年產量指引約為每天 182 萬桶油當量。

Now to put this production guidance in the context, we expect underlying growth for both the fourth quarter and the full year to be roughly 4% year-over-year, which includes Lower 48 production growth of roughly 7%. And this is very consistent with our full year guidance and our long-term plan we laid out at our Analyst and Investor Meeting.

現在，將這項生產指引放在背景下，我們預計第四季和全年的基本成長率將年增約 4%，其中包括 48 個州的產量成長約 7%。這與我們的全年指導以及我們在分析師和投資者會議上製定的長期計劃非常一致。

For APLNG, we expect distributions of $300 million in the fourth quarter and $1.9 billion for the full year. And while APLNG distributions can vary quarter-to-quarter, a normalized run rate to think about moving forward is around $400 million per quarter at current price levels.

對於 APLNG，我們預計第四季的分配額為 3 億美元，全年分配額為 19 億美元。雖然 APLNG 的分配可能會因季度而異，但考慮到未來的正常運行率按當前價格水準計算約為每季 4 億美元。

Shifting to adjusted operating costs. We raised our full year guidance by $300 million to $8.6 billion. This was driven by our increased working interest in Surmont, increased Lower 48 non-operated activity and inflationary impacts on the Lower 48.

轉向調整後的營運成本。我們將全年指引上調了 3 億美元，達到 86 億美元。這是由於我們對蘇爾蒙 (Surmont) 的工作興趣增加、下 48 州非經營活動增加以及通貨膨脹對下 48 州的影響。

We've also raised our DD&A guidance by $100 million to $8.3 billion, which is also primarily due to Surmont. And full year adjusted corporate net loss guidance remains unchanged at roughly $800 million, and the second half run rate is a good starting point for 2024. Finally, our full year capital spending guidance range is also unchanged.

我們還將 DD&A 指導提高了 1 億美元，達到 83 億美元，這也主要歸功於 Surmont。全年調整後的企業淨虧損指引維持在約 8 億美元不變，下半年運轉速度是 2024 年的良好起點。最後，我們的全年資本支出指引範圍也保持不變。

So to wrap up, we had another solid operational quarter. We continued to deliver on our strategic initiatives across our diverse portfolio, and we remain highly competitive on our shareholder distributions. That concludes our prepared remarks. I'll now turn it back over to the operator to start the Q&A.

總而言之，我們又度過了一個穩健的營運季度。我們持續在多元化的投資組合中實施策略性舉措，並在股東分配方面保持高度競爭力。我們準備好的演講到此結束。我現在將其轉回操作員以開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的尼爾梅塔（Neil Mehta）。

There's been a lot of variability in Lower 48 results from some of your competitors, and you guys have been very steady tracking at the 7% growth rate. Just love your perspective and walking through the basins and particularly the Permian, what is working, what's not for you, guys? And how do you feel about the plan as you move into 2024?

你們的一些競爭對手的 Lower 48 成績存在很大差異，而你們一直非常穩定地保持著 7% 的成長率。只是喜歡你的觀點和走過盆地，特別是二疊紀，什麼是有效的，什麼不適合你，夥計們？進入 2024 年，您對該計劃有何看法？

Yes, Neil, this is Nick. You're right. I mean, overall, if you look at our performance across all of our basins, it's been strong, and in line with prior year performance across, again, all those Lower 48 assets.

是的，尼爾，這是尼克。你說得對。我的意思是，總的來說，如果你看看我們所有流域的表現，你會發現它一直很強勁，並且與去年所有 48 個州資產的表現一致。

I'd also mention that it's been in line with our type curve expectations. I'll call out, for example, Delaware well performance is showing top quartile on volumes produced, not only on a barrel of oil per basis, but also on a BOE per basis per foot. So we're seeing very encouraging results there. I think the key point, too, is the strong performance reinforces our strong focus on returns, capital-efficient environment that we've set there.

我還想提一下，它符合我們的類型曲線預期。例如，我要指出的是，特拉華州的油井表現在產量上顯示出最高的四分之一，不僅以每桶石油為基礎，而且以每英尺每桶油為基礎。所以我們在那裡看到了非常令人鼓舞的結果。我認為關鍵點還在於，強勁的業績強化了我們對回報和我們在那裡設定的資本效率環境的強烈關注。

And I would add, Neil, it speaks again to the quality and the depth of the inventory in the company. We've got -- we're prosecuting some of the best acreage in the basin and doing it in such a way that's focused on capital efficiency and returns, as Nick described.

我想補充一點，尼爾，這再次說明了公司庫存的品質和深度。正如尼克所描述的，我們正在該盆地中尋找一些最好的土地，並以注重資本效率和回報的方式進行。

Our next question comes from the line of John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的約翰‧羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

You've had a handful of international project start-ups that you touched on in the release. If you could give us some more color on these projects, that would be helpful. And maybe if you could tie that into a growth outlook for the international business in '24 as well, that would be helpful.

您在新聞稿中提到了一些國際專案新創公司。如果您能為我們提供有關這些項目的更多信息，那將會很有幫助。也許如果你能將其與 24 年國際業務的成長前景聯繫起來，那將會有所幫助。

John, this is Andy. I can take that one. It's a little early to be getting into full year guidance for 2024. As you mentioned, we have had some pretty good news across our Alaskan international projects. So we've made some pretty significant progress across the portfolio, and it really is nice to see so many of those projects achieved major milestones on or ahead of schedule and budget.

約翰，這是安迪。我可以接受那個。現在進入 2024 年全年指導還為時過早。正如您所提到的，我們在阿拉斯加國際計畫中收到了一些相當好的消息。因此，我們在整個產品組合中取得了一些相當重大的進展，很高興看到這麼多項目按計劃或提前按計劃和預算實現了重大里程碑。

Ryan touched on Norway. So there we achieved first production ahead of schedule on 3 of our 4 subsea tiebacks. And we expect the fourth one to come online as planned in Q2 '24. So we expect those 4 projects in aggregate to add about 20,000 barrels a day of production next year, which should more than offset normal decline in '24.

瑞安談到了挪威。因此，我們在 4 個海底回接裝置中，有 3 個提前實現了首次生產。我們預計第四個將按計劃在 24 年第二季上線。因此，我們預計這 4 個項目明年的產量總計將增加約 20,000 桶/日，這將足以抵消 24 年的正常產量下降。

We also had some good news in China where our partner-operated Bohai Phase 4b achieved first production ahead of schedule from the first platform. Now that's going to be 2 platforms tied back to a central processing facility, and we'd expect the second platform to come on in the first quarter. And then with that, we'll then have the opportunity to drill new wells in Bohai for the next 4 to 5 years.

我們在中國也有一些好消息，我們的合作夥伴營運的渤海4b期在第一個平台上提前實現了首次投產。現在這將是兩個與中央處理設施相連的平台，我們預計第二個平台將在第一季推出。這樣，我們在未來四到五年內就有機會在渤海鑽新井。

And then we also had some pretty big major milestones in Canada with CPF2 in the Montney and Pad 267 in Surmont. So CPF2 was successfully started up in September, and that's going to add to about 100 million cubic feet a day of gas processing, and about 30,000 barrels of condensate, water handling capacity.

然後，我們在加拿大也取得了一些相當重大的里程碑，例如在 Montney 的 CPF2 和在 Surmont 的 Pad 267。因此，CPF2 已於 9 月成功啟動，這將增加每天約 1 億立方英尺的天然氣處理能力，以及約 30,000 桶凝結水和水處理能力。

So in the Montney, we averaged about 20,000 barrels a day of production in Q3, and we're going to substantially grow that next year. And then finally, with Surmont Pad 267, we achieved first steam in September, and we'll get first oil in early '24.

因此，在蒙特尼，第三季我們平均每天生產約 2 萬桶，明年我們將大幅成長。最後，透過 Surmont Pad 267，我們在 9 月實現了第一批蒸汽，我們將在 24 年初獲得第一批石油。

Now with 267 online, we'd expect to see Surmont grow something 5,000 and 10,000 barrels a day next year. And importantly, that's inclusive of a month-long turnaround that we conduct every 5 years in Surmont. So I'm really proud of what we're doing and executing across these projects. And I think a whole list of them here is a really good sort of example of how we leverage our existing infrastructure to deliver on our low cost of supply opportunities. So hopefully that gives you a feel for sort of the momentum we're building going into next year.

目前，Surmont 已上線 267 桶，預計明年的產量將達到 5,000 至 10,000 桶/日。重要的是，這包括我們在蘇爾蒙特每 5 年進行一次為期一個月的周轉。因此，我對我們在這些專案中所做的和執行的事情感到非常自豪。我認為這裡的完整清單是我們如何利用現有基礎設施來提供低成本供應機會的一個很好的例子。希望這能讓您感受到我們明年將建立的勢頭。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Richardson with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Richardson。

Bill, I was wondering if maybe you could help us on a little bit of broad strokes on 2024, CapEx thoughts. I think in the past, you've talked about kind of flattish CapEx around $11 billion, with -- admitting there's a lot of moving parts in an $80 environment. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about that as you're thinking forward.

Bill，CapEx 認為，我想知道您是否可以幫助我們對 2024 年進行一些大致的規劃。我認為過去，您曾談論過大約 110 億美元的平穩資本支出，並承認在 80 美元的環境中存在許多變化的部分。也許你可以在思考未來的時候談談這個問題。

Yes, it's Dominic. Stephen. What we'd say is very consistent with the AIM framework we laid out on CapEx.

是的，這是多明尼克。史蒂芬.我們所說的與我們在資本支出上製定的 AIM 框架非常一致。

Just to recap the moving parts. We've got several moving pieces. We got -- assuming Willow is sanctioned, which we expect spending on that project will be higher. And then, of course, you have the incremental $100 million or so for the other 50% of the term of the Surmont that we're adding. And those increases will be mostly offset by -- we're going to see lower spending on our LNG projects and roll off of the project capital at Norway. So -- but I think the key message there is really very much in line with the framework we laid out at AIM. Of course, you do have the addition of Surmont to extra 50% there.

只是回顧一下活動部件。我們有幾個移動的部分。假設 Willow 受到製裁，我們預計該項目的支出將會更高。當然，我們也為 Surmont 的另外 50% 期限增加了約 1 億美元的增量。這些增長將被大部分抵消——我們將看到液化天然氣項目支出的減少以及挪威項目資本的減少。所以，但我認為其中的關鍵資訊確實非常符合我們在 AIM 制定的框架。當然，您確實可以將 Surmont 添加到額外的 50%。

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自 Doug Leggate 與美國銀行的電話。

Although Phil has gone to the dark side with the one question...

儘管菲爾因為一個問題而走向了黑暗面…

One man's opinion, Doug.

一個人的意見，道格。

If I may, I'd like to make one comment and ask one question. My one comment is your stock's up almost 5% this morning. I think acknowledging your dividend move -- ordinary dividend move is gaining recognition in the market. And congratulations on taking that step. We'd like to see more of it.

如果可以的話，我想發表一項評論並提出一個問題。我的一個評論是你們的股票今天早上上漲了近 5%。我認為承認你的股息舉措——普通的股息舉措正在獲得市場的認可。祝賀您邁出了這一步。我們希望看到更多。

Okay. With that, my question is simply this. One of my peers asked a question earlier about performance in the Permian. I thought I'd like to ask it a little differently. One of your very large peers had some nonoperated portfolio problems in the quarter. You guys have got a large part of your production that comes from nonoperated production. Is there any discernible difference between your operated performance and your nonoperated performance that's driven this reliable production growth year-over-year.

好的。至此，我的問題就很簡單了。我的一位同行早些時候問了一個關於二疊紀表現的問題。我想我想以不同的方式問這個問題。您的一個非常大的同行在本季度遇到了一些非營運投資組合問題。你們的生產很大一部分來自非營運生產。您的營運績效和非營運績效之間是否存在任何明顯的差異，推動了產量逐年可靠成長。

Yes. So I can't resist but to comment on your comment, Doug, and then I'll let Nick answer your question on the Lower 48. But it's exactly what we thought should happen with top quartile targeted dividend growth as a company relative to the S&P 500. So that's been our plan, and we're sticking to it and executing on that plan. But yes, I can let Nick comment on your question about -- open up in the Permian.

是的。所以我忍不住要對你的評論發表評論，Doug，然後我會讓Nick 回答你關於Lower 48 的問題。但這正是我們認為作為一家公司相對於前四分之一的目標股息增長應該發生的情況。標準普爾 500 指數。這就是我們的計劃，我們將堅持並執行該計劃。但是，是的，我可以讓尼克評論你關於在二疊紀開放的問題。

Yes, Doug, good question. I mean, I think you're looking at the Q2 to Q3 performance this year, we were up 2%, so sequential growth. And as Bill mentioned in his prepared remarks, we're seeing 7% year-over-year. Obviously, that has a combination of our operated and nonoperated portfolio. Both are performing well.

是的，道格，好問題。我的意思是，我想你會看到今年第二季到第三季的表現，我們成長了 2%，所以是環比成長。正如比爾在他準備好的演講中提到的，我們看到同比增長 7%。顯然，這結合了我們經營和非經營的投資組合。兩人都表現良好。

Specifically, Doug, in Q2 to Q3, a large component of that increase was our operated Permian program, as well as OBO. So we're seeing increases in the operated by others, and a little bit of Bakken as well. I mean we -- these operated by other assets are very competitive. We look at every ballot. We benchmark each one, and it performs well within our cost supply framework.

具體來說，Doug，在第二季度到第三季度，成長的很大一部分是我們營運的二疊紀專案以及 OBO。因此，我們看到其他人經營的業務增加，巴肯也有一些業務成長。我的意思是，我們——這些由其他資產運營的項目非常有競爭力。我們會查看每張選票。我們對每一項都進行了基準測試，並且它在我們的成本供應框架內表現良好。

As a reminder, if you look at Permian in general, about 30% of our production is coming from operated by other, within the Permian. And if I take you back a little bit in time to the Analyst Investor Day, when you think about the split between the 2 basins, we've got 2/3 of our inventories in the Delaware, 1/3 in the Midland Basin to generate the full Lower 48 of 5%. But bottom line, Doug, is that they're both competing well. We will review every ballot to make sure we're investing the right capital and drive that capital efficiency.

提醒一下，如果您大致觀察二疊紀盆地，您會發現我們大約 30% 的產量來自二疊紀盆地內其他地區的運作。如果我帶你回到分析師投資者日，當你考慮這兩個盆地之間的分配時，我們的庫存有 2/3 在特拉華州，1/3 在米德蘭盆地產生5% 的完整Lower 48。但道格，最重要的是，他們都競爭得很好。我們將審查每一次選票，以確保我們投資正確的資本並提高資本效率。

Our next question comes from the line of Lloyd Byrne with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自勞埃德·伯恩和傑弗里斯的對話。

Ryan, you mentioned it in your prepared remarks, but I'm hoping you could comment further on international gas integration strategy. And I recognize it's early, but by our numbers, there seems like a lot of option value there. So maybe just thought process behind it and maybe any targets you might have to help us think about the future there.

Ryan，你在準備好的演講中提到了這一點，但我希望你能進一步評論國際天然氣一體化戰略。我承認現在還為時過早，但從我們的數據來看，那裡似乎有很多選擇價值。因此，也許只是背後的思考過程，也許有任何目標可以幫助我們思考那裡的未來。

Yes, I can let Bill give you some details there, Lloyd. But yes, we're excited about the opportunity to add the regas capacity in the Netherlands at the Gate LNG, complements well our German edition, and we're looking elsewhere as we try to build out and move the Port Arthur volumes and the volumes we have in other places around the globe into that market, which we think is going to be a strong market for many decades to come, which is why we're moving into this. I can -- Bill can be a bit more specific to your question on the details there.

是的，我可以請比爾給你一些細節，勞埃德。但是，是的，我們很高興有機會在荷蘭的Gate LNG 上增加再氣化能力，這很好地補充了我們的德國版本，並且在我們嘗試擴大和轉移亞瑟港的容量和容量時，我們正在尋找其他地方我們已經在全球其他地方進入了這個市場，我們認為這個市場在未來幾十年內將是一個強大的市場，這就是我們進入這個市場的原因。我可以——比爾可以更具體地回答你關於細節的問題。

Yes. I'm happy to put a bit more color on that. So we're very focused on developing market. And as we've talked about, we like to do this in a stair-step fashion with how we originate supply.

是的。我很高興能為它增添一點色彩。所以我們非常專注於開發市場。正如我們所討論的，我們喜歡以階梯式的方式來實現供應的方式。

You've seen us announce Port Arthur LNG and Saguaro LNG. We're making really strong progress at 2.8 million tonnes per annum of regas capacity at German LNG, 2 of that is dedicated to supporting our LNG SPAs out of Qatar that leaves 0.8 at Germany. We just added 1.5 million tonnes of regas capacity at Gate. So that's 2.3, that's roughly half of Port Arthur.

您已經看到我們宣布了亞瑟港液化天然氣和仙人掌液化天然​​氣。我們在德國液化天然氣公司的每年 280 萬噸再氣化能力方面取得了巨大進展，其中 2 個專門用於支持我們在卡達以外的液化天然氣SPA，剩下 0.8 噸在德國。我們剛剛在 Gate 增加了 150 萬噸再氣化能力。所以這是 2.3，大約是亞瑟港的一半。

And I think importantly, we're continuing to see a lot of interest and strong demand for LNG. As we've talked, we're looking to develop a diversified portfolio that's both sales into Europe and also sales into Asia, perhaps some FOB sales at the facility and having a mix of variety of term links in that. And so I'm just -- I'm really pleased with the progress we're making within 6 months of kind of FID on Port Arthur, we've got roughly half of it placed.

我認為重要的是，我們繼續看到人們對液化天然氣的濃厚興趣和強勁需求。正如我們所說，我們正在尋求開發一個多元化的產品組合，既向歐洲銷售，又向亞洲銷售，也許是在工廠進行一些離岸價銷售，並在其中混合了各種期限鏈接。所以我對我們在 6 個月內就亞瑟港最終投資決定所取得的進展感到非常滿意，我們已經完成了大約一半的工作。

And I think the way to think about that, just going back to the vignette, I showed at AIM is, you look at the capacity that we have into Germany and the TTF, the way to think about that as you're modeling returns as you start with the Henry Hub price, you add liquefaction tools shipping and regas, you compare that to what you think European gas price will be. That's going to give you your base CFO for volumes into Europe before adding any diversion optionality on to that. You can do a similar type analysis going to Asia. So yes, we share your view here that these are very interesting additions to our portfolio, and we're really pleased with the progress we're making.

我認為思考這個問題的方法，回到我在 AIM 上展示的小插曲，你看看我們對德國和 TTF 的能力，當你建模回報時，思考這個問題的方法是：你從亨利中心價格開始，添加液化工具運輸和再氣化，然後將其與您認為的歐洲天然氣價格進行比較。在添加任何轉移選項之前，這將為您提供進入歐洲的基礎財務長。您可以對亞洲進行類似的類型分析。所以，是的，我們在這裡分享您的觀點，即這些是我們產品組合中非常有趣的補充，我們對我們所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的德文·麥克德莫特。

So I want to echo the earlier comment on the dividend raise and ask a question on the shareholder return. So it's good to see the 14% increase. I was wondering if this large change in the dividend is more tied to incremental cash flow on Surmont, or there's been a broader change in how you're thinking about the target payout, or dividend breakeven as you look out at the business over the next few years? And just as part of that, maybe you can give us an update on your broader thinking on shareholder return strategy and the breakdown of dividend VROC and buybacks in the context of the base increase.

因此，我想呼應先前關於股息增加的評論，並就股東回報提出問題。所以很高興看到 14% 的成長。我想知道股息的這一巨大變化是否與蘇蒙特的增量現金流更相關，或者當您展望未來的業務時，您對目標支付或股息盈虧平衡的看法發生了更廣泛的變化幾年？作為其中的一部分，也許您可以向我們介紹您對股東回報策略的更廣泛思考以及基數增長背景下股息 VROC 和回購的細目。

Yes. No, I don't think anything has changed in our framework, which we outlined, I think, pretty extensively in our last analyst meeting.

是的。不，我認為我們的框架沒有發生任何變化，我認為我們在上次分析師會議上對此進行了相當廣泛的概述。

So based on our mid-cycle price call, you can expect us to deliver at least 30% of our cash flow back to our shareholders. And then we've said, when the prices are in excess of our mid-cycle price call, which is where the prices are today and where they've been over the last few years, you should expect us to be delivering more of our cash back. And that's, in fact, what we've done over the last 5 to 6 years, delivered mid-40%, 45% or so of our cash, has gone back to our shareholders. And it's done that in a form of both the cash and buying our shares back.

因此，根據我們的中期價格預測，您可以預期我們將至少 30% 的現金流量回饋給股東。然後我們說過，當價格超過我們的週期中期價格（即今天的價格和過去幾年的價格）時，您應該期望我們提供更多的產品回饋。事實上，我們在過去 5 到 6 年所做的事情，將 40%、45% 左右的現金回饋給了我們的股東。它是透過現金和回購股票的形式來實現的。

So our construct around that really hasn't changed. We like to provide an affordable, reliable ordinary dividend that grows competitive with the top quartile, the S&P 500 over time. We'd like to buy some of our shares back through the cycle in a mid-cycle construct, and then we introduced the third leg VROC to add additional return back to our shareholders when prices are above our mid-cycle price call.

所以我們圍繞這一點的構建確實沒有改變。我們希望提供負擔得起、可靠的普通股息，隨著時間的推移，這種股息與前四分之一的標準普爾 500 指數相比將更具競爭力。我們希望在周期中期結構中回購一些股票，然後我們引入了第三條腿 VROC，以便在價格高於週期中期價格時為股東增加額外回報。

So that's the construct we have and as we -- and we're sticking to that. We think it's served the company pretty well and it provides -- like this year, we expect cash flow of close to $22 billion, and we're giving half of that back to our shareholders. So it's probably not a bad starting point for next year.

這就是我們所擁有的結構，我們將堅持這一點。我們認為它為公司提供了很好的服務，就像今年一樣，我們預計現金流將接近 220 億美元，我們將其中一半返還給股東。因此，對於明年來說，這可能是一個不錯的起點。

Our next question comes from the line of Nitin Kumar with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nitin Kumar 和 Mizuho 的對話。

I guess just sticking with the theme of M&A and I appreciate, Ryan, you touched on it in your comments. But one of your peers out there has talked about improving recoveries in the Permian to the tune of 20% or higher than everybody else. You operate across the entire Permian basin. I'm curious, are you deploying or seeing others deploy technologies that you think can improve recovery rates that significantly?

我想只是堅持併購的主題，我很欣賞 Ryan，您在評論中談到了這一點。但您的一位同行談到了將二疊紀的採收率提高到 20% 或比其他人更高。您的業務遍及整個二疊紀盆地。我很好奇，您是否正在部署或看到其他人部署您認為可以顯著提高恢復率的技術？

Yes. I'll let Nick respond to that specifically. And I guess I'd make this one broad comment is, I think as we talk about this topic, I think in the companies and a lot of people are guilty of this inflation a bit, between recovery and recovery rate or recovery factor.

是的。我會讓尼克具體回應這一點。我想我要發表的一個廣泛的評論是，我認為當我們談論這個主題時，我認為公司和很多人都對這種通貨膨脹感到內疚，在復甦和復甦率或復甦因素之間。

So I think you have to be really careful when we talk about this, in light of these unconventionals. We're doing everything we can to improve the recovery that we get from the wells, the acreage, the blocks, the layers that we have within our portfolio. And -- but be careful not to conflate that to recovery factor or a recovery rate. And I can have Nick speak a bit more specifically about the things we're doing to make sure we get maximum recovery out of our assets.

所以我認為，鑑於這些非常規的情況，當我們談論這個問題時，你必須非常小心。我們正在盡一切努力提高我們投資組合中的油井、面積、區塊和地層的採收率。並且 - 但請注意不要將其與恢復係數或恢復率混為一談。我可以讓尼克更具體地談談我們正在做的事情，以確保我們從資產中獲得最大的回收。

Thanks, Ryan. Yes, in our asset teams, as Ryan mentioned, are very focused on optimizing the recovery of our wells and our development projects across all of Lower 48 assets. I think it's important, too, is we seek to maximize recovery but also driving improvement in capital, and that's part of our returns-focused strategy and the cost supply framework that we judge every decision against.

謝謝，瑞安。是的，正如 Ryan 所提到的，我們的資產團隊非常注重優化我們所有 Lower 48 資產的油井和開發項目的採收率。我認為同樣重要的是，我們尋求最大程度的復甦，同時推動資本的改善，這是我們以回報為中心的策略的一部分，也是我們判斷每個決策所依據的成本供應框架的一部分。

We look at kind of improving recovery across kind of 3 primary buckets, so I'll take you through that, what we're looking at what we're deploying within our assets. So first, we look at development decisions, we used our first bucket. Secondly, is how do we optimize the reservoir, that's our second bucket. And then the third one is really, when we look at enhanced oil recovery, but that's more longer term.

我們著眼於改善 3 個主要儲存桶的恢復，所以我將帶您了解我們正在研究的資產中部署的內容。首先，我們考慮開發決策，我們使用了第一個桶子。其次，我們如何優化水庫，這是我們的第二個桶子。第三個是真的，當我們考慮提高石油採收率時，但這是更長期的。

Now, then one of the things that we obviously have within the Permian, and we mentioned this at the Analyst Investor Day, is that we have 2 decades of inventory within the Permian at current rig activities level. So we have a lot of focus on development decisions and the reservoir optimization to improve recovery.

現在，我們在二疊紀盆地顯然擁有的一件事是，我們在二疊紀盆地目前的鑽機活動水平上擁有 20 年的庫存，我們在分析師投資者日提到了這一點。因此，我們非常關注開發決策和油藏優化，以提高採收率。

A couple of things. Well, lateral length is critical. We speak to about the inventory length, more you can go from a 1 lateral to a 2 to a 3-mile lateral. You increase the recovery per well. And as we've mentioned before, you go from a 1 to 3, we improve our cost of supply, which drives capital efficiency by 30% to 40%. So we're doing that.

有幾件事。嗯，橫向長度至關重要。我們談論庫存長度，您可以從 1 英里橫向延伸到 2 英里至 3 英里橫向。您可以提高每口井的回收率。正如我們之前提到的，從 1 到 3，我們提高了供應成本，從而將資本效率提高了 30% 到 40%。所以我們正在這樣做。

As a reminder, we've got 80% of our Permian well inventory is 1.5 miles or greater, and 60% is 2 miles or greater, and we're continuing to execute 3-mile laterals year-to-year growth on those as well.

提醒一下，我們的二疊紀油井庫存中 80% 的長度為 1.5 英里或以上，60% 的油井長度為 2 英里或以上，並且我們將繼續在這些井上實現 3 英里的支管逐年增長。出色地。

On the well completion side, again, this still sits in that development decision bucket. We're doing some interesting work in the Bakken, as an example, using multi-varied analysis where we optimize completion design to maximize both recovery and capital efficiency and seeing recent completion results that are very favorable in that space.

在完井方面，這仍然屬於開發決策範圍。例如，我們正在巴肯進行一些有趣的工作，使用多變量分析來優化完井設計，以最大限度地提高回收率和資本效率，並看到最近的完井結果在該領域非常有利。

And then the kind of the last item I'll address on the development decision is around spacing and stacking. One thing that we do out in the Midland Basin that you've heard here recently is co-development. Co-development allows us to minimize the parent-child impacts, while improving recovery as well as capital efficiency. And we've demonstrated over the last 4 years, both in the Midland Basin, as well as the Delaware Basin around improved performance there.

然後我要討論的關於開發決策的最後一個項目是關於間距和堆疊的。您最近在這裡聽到的我們在米德蘭盆地所做的一件事就是共同開發。共同開發使我們能夠最大限度地減少親子影響，同時提高復甦和資本效率。過去 4 年，我們在米德蘭盆地和特拉華盆地展示了性能的改善。

On the second component that we're focusing in, on reservoir optimization, I'll draw you to -- your attention to Eagle Ford. We're using kind of techniques where we refract these wells, kind of late life in the wells. And we're seeing improved well performance on expected ultimate recovery by 60%, which is very competitive in our cost supply framework.

關於我們關注的第二個部分，即儲層優化，我將提請您注意伊格爾福特。我們正在使用某種技術來折射這些井，這是井中的晚期生命。我們看到油井性能的預期最終採收率提高了 60%，這在我們的成本供應框架中非常具有競爭力。

And then I'll take you up to the Bakken. We're using infill wells and upcoming edge wells to further increase overall recovery, and these are also a competitive cost of supply. Again, that's increasing the recovery per pad.

然後我會帶你去巴肯。我們正在使用加密井和即將推出的邊緣井來進一步提高整體採收率，這些也是具有競爭力的供應成本。同樣，這增加了每個墊的恢復能力。

And then the final bucket, that enhanced oil recovery component, where we've done many pilot studies, mainly in the Eagle Ford, around gas injection, huff-and-puff. And we've seen technical success. We've seen injectivity and the corresponding oil response.

然後是最後一個桶，也就是提高石油採收率的部分，我們已經做了許多試驗研究，主要是在鷹福特，圍繞著氣體注入、吞吐。我們已經看到了技術上的成功。我們已經看到了注入能力和相應的石油反應。

But I'll leave you with this on the enhanced oil recovery, these projects don't compete within our expansive drill 1 inventory at this point in time. We'll continue to study it and analyze it, and that's something we can address in the future. So from long laterals to improve completion design to infill wells, we're improving recovery in our assets.

但我將留給您關於提高石油採收率的問題，這些項目目前不與我們龐大的 1 號鑽探庫存競爭。我們會繼續研究、分析，這是未來可以解決的問題。因此，從長支管到改進完井設計再到加密井，我們正在提高資產的採收率。

Our next question comes from the line of Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德（Roger Read）。

A lot of this has been hit. But I guess I'll just ask about Alaska. There has been a little more noise up there on the -- I don't know if you call it, regulatory, legislative side, and then we're about to head into the winter season. So I'm just curious, Willow and other things, what's going on there?

其中很多都受到了打擊。但我想我只會問阿拉斯加的事。我不知道你是否稱之為監管、立法方面，那裡有更多的噪音，然後我們即將進入冬季。所以我只是好奇，Willow 和其他東西，那裡發生了什麼？

Roger, this is Andy. So yes, let me take that one. I'll start with the legal and then will give you a bit of an update on where we are with the project.

羅傑，這是安迪。所以，是的，讓我拿那個。我將從法律開始，然後向您介紹我們該專案的最新進展。

So on the legal side, I talked about this on previous calls, there are lawsuits challenging the federal government's approval of the project. As I mentioned on the last call, we expect to see a ruling on this in November. The preliminary rulings in April were favorable and then the upcoming ruling will address the full scope of the legal challenge.

所以在法律方面，我在之前的電話中談到了這一點，有訴訟質疑聯邦政府對該項目的批准。正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，我們預計將在 11 月看到對此的裁決。四月的初步裁決是有利的，接下來的裁決將解決法律挑戰的全部範圍。

Again, I'm repeating myself a little here, but as I said on the last call, we're very happy with how the BLM and competing agencies conducted the process, and satisfied all the requirements to grant their approval. So we're confident, and we're looking forward to those court rulings in November as we get ready for the 24 season.

再次，我在這裡重複一下，但正如我在上次電話會議上所說，我們對 BLM 和競爭機構執行該流程的方式感到非常滿意，並滿足了批准他們的所有要求。所以我們很有信心，我們期待著 11 月法庭的裁決​​，因為我們正在為 24 賽季做好準備。

And then I think the other part of the legal question you were alluding to is the, separately, in September, the Department of Interior proposed additional regulations for the management and protection of the NPRA. And we don't expect these draft rules to impact Willow or prevent our exploration program. It doesn't have any impact on the 10-year plan we've previously laid out at AIM.

然後我認為你提到的法律問題的另一部分是，內政部在 9 月單獨提出了管理和保護 NPRA 的附加法規。我們預計這些規則草案不會影響 Willow 或阻止我們的勘探計劃。這對我們先前在 AIM 制定的 10 年計畫沒有任何影響。

But that said, we are concerned if the rules are adopted as currently drafted, they could impact future developments beyond Willow, in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska. So we will be providing feedback to the Department of Interior to try and make the proposed rules more consistent with the existing statute.

但話雖如此，我們擔心，如果按照目前起草的規則採用，它們可能會影響阿拉斯加國家石油儲備區威洛以外地區的未來發展。因此，我們將向內政部提供回饋，以嘗試使擬議的規則與現有法規更加一致。

And again, I'll just finish the legal bit with -- as a reminder, the statute recognizes the primary purpose of the NPRA is to increase domestic oil supply. So that's kind of where we are on the legal side.

再次強調，我將在法律部分結束時提醒一下，該法規承認 NPRA 的主要目的是增加國內石油供應。這就是我們在法律上的立場。

And then just very quickly where we are in terms of the project. Taking a step back here, as I described back at our investor update, Willow, is the kind of project that's right in our wheelhouse. We've got no first-of-the-kind type risk here. It's 3 drill sites to 1 new processing facility. And our track record in Alaska was excellence in delivering on schedule and on budget.

然後很快我們就完成了專案。退一步來說，正如我在投資者更新中所描述的那樣，Willow 是我們最適合的項目。我們這裡不存在前所未有的風險。其中包括 3 個鑽探場地和 1 個新加工設施。我們在阿拉斯加的業績記錄在按時、按預算交付方面表現出色。

But specifically to where we are right now, work is progressing well, and our 2023 capital is fully factored into the total company guidance we gave today. We started the first phase of module fabrication on the Gulf Coast. And then on the North Slope, we've successfully opened the gravel mine, and we're preparing for the 24th construction season.

但具體到我們現在的情況，工作進展順利，我們的 2023 年資本已充分納入我們今天給出的公司總體指導中。我們在墨西哥灣沿岸開始了模組製造的第一階段。然後在北坡，我們已經成功打開了礫石礦，正在為第24個施工季節做準備。

We've already got over half of the project scope under firm contract. And these contracts include clauses if we don't FID the project that we can exit. Now all the contracts we've issued today, 75% from a lump sum or unit rate. For these type of contracts, we have agreed a price and now have limited exposure to future inflation. So as we continue the contract negotiations, our estimate of capital to first production remains unchanged at $7 billion to $7.5 billion that we previously provided. So I think that probably gives you a good update on where we are on the legal and on the project side of things.

我們已經簽訂了固定合同，完成了一半以上的專案範圍。這些合約包括如果我們不最終確定專案就可以退出的條款。現在我們今天簽發的所有合約中，75% 是一次性付清或單位費率。對於此類合同，我們已經商定了價格，現在對未來通膨的敞口有限。因此，當我們繼續進行合約談判時，我們對首次生產的資本估計保持不變，仍為先前提供的 70 億至 75 億美元。因此，我認為這可能會讓您了解我們在法律和專案方面的最新進展。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ryan Todd 和 Piper Sandler。

Maybe one for you, Ryan, you've been on -- you've been busy on the portfolio over the last few years across a wide range of regions and types of assets across the portfolio. As you -- and some of that is obviously opportunistic just when the timing of things like Surmont and APLNG came up.

也許是適合你的，Ryan，你一直在——過去幾年裡你一直忙於投資組合，涉及廣泛的地區和投資組合中的資產類型。正如您一樣，當 Surmont 和 APLNG 等項目出現時，其中一些顯然是機會主義的。

But if you take a step back now and look, is there still more to do on the portfolio, in terms of portfolio management? Are there increased high-grading opportunities on the divestiture side that we should expect, as you continue to develop things, or any places that you would like to change or increase your exposure, maybe as you look going forward down the line in terms of long-term competitiveness.

但如果您現在退後一步看看，在投資組合管理方面，投資組合是否還有更多工作要做？隨著您繼續開發事物，或者您希望改變或增加曝光度的任何地方，也許當您展望未來的長期發展時，我們應該期望剝離方面是否會增加高評級機會？ - 長期競爭力。

Yes, Ryan. No, I think -- as we tried to show you at the Analyst Meeting earlier this year, we're pretty pleased with all the efforts we've made in the company over the last 4 to 5 years to really, what we think has put out an extremely compelling 10-year plan.

是的，瑞安。不，我認為 - 正如我們在今年早些時候的分析師會議上試圖向您展示的那樣，我們對過去 4 到 5 年裡我們在公司所做的所有努力感到非常滿意，我們認為制定了一項極其引人注目的十年計劃。

So I wouldn't describe the -- we really like where the portfolio has gotten to. It's got a -- it's global, it's diverse. It's got a great mix, a short-, medium- and longer-cycle opportunities organically to invest in. All those investments lead to 20 billion barrels, less than $40 cost of supply. So we've got a lot of visibility into what we think is a great plan.

所以我不會描述——我們真的很喜歡這個投資組合的發展方向。它是全球性的、多樣化的。它有一個很好的組合，有有機的短、中、長週期投資機會。所有這些投資將帶來 200 億桶石油，供應成本不到 40 美元。因此，我們對我們認為很棒的計劃有了很多了解。

We're ruthless high graders of the portfolio. If some doesn't compete, we're looking for opportunities moving out. I wouldn't describe we've got anything significant inside the portfolio today that would fall into that category. And we're always looking and trying to be opportunistic, which I think describes to your point, the APLNG ROFR and the Surmont ROFR that we hold. So you never quite know when your partners make a change that you didn't anticipate, and you get a great opportunity to acquire an asset that you know really well. And the one that we know we can make better if we have it under our control, and ultimately, as I said, it makes our 10-year plan better.

我們是投資組合中無情的高分者。如果有些人不參與競爭，我們就會尋找機會離開。我不會描述我們今天的投資組合中有任何屬於該類別的重要內容。我們一直在尋找並試圖投機取巧，我認為這描述了您的觀點，即我們持有的 APLNG ROFR 和 Surmont ROFR。因此，您永遠不知道您的合作夥伴何時會做出您沒有預料到的改變，而您將有一個絕佳的機會來獲得您非常了解的資產。我們知道，如果我們能控制住它，我們就能做得更好，最終，正如我所說，它會讓我們的十年計畫變得更好。

So we're always out looking to find -- because you never quite know when these things might materialize, but we tend to be very opportunistic. And I just remind people, our framework is intact. It has to meet our financial framework. We got to see a way clear to make the asset better, and does it make that 10-year plan that we think is quite compelling -- does it make that 10-year plan better, which is a pretty high hurdle inside the company.

所以我們總是出去尋找——因為你永遠不知道這些事情什麼時候會實現，但我們往往非常機會主義。我只是提醒人們，我們的框架是完整的。它必須符合我們的財務框架。我們必須找到一種明確的方法來使資產變得更好，並且它是否使我們認為非常引人注目的10 年計劃變得更好- 它是否使10 年計劃變得更好，這是公司內部的一個相當高的障礙。

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we sure can, Paul.

是的，我們當然可以，保羅。

If I can go back into Permian. What's your average lateral length now? And then how much do you think you can improve or lengthen it over the next several years? Is that the -- one of the primary contributor that you think you could improve the result in your OBO, Permian operation.

如果我能回到二疊紀就好了。您現在的平均側向長度是多少？那麼您認為在接下來的幾年裡您可以改進或延長多少時間？這是您認為可以改善二疊紀 OBO 作業結果的主要貢獻者之一嗎？

And also that, whether you guys have tested because at some point, I would imagine it will reach this economy of scale when you get longer and longer. Do you have any experiment that you guys have done that, what that limit may be? Is it 4 miles? Is it longer than 4 miles or less than 4 miles?

而且，你們是否已經測試過，因為在某個時候，我想當你變得越來越長時，它會達到這種規模經濟。你們有做過這樣的實驗嗎？這個限制可能是多少？是4英里嗎？長度是大於 4 英里還是小於 4 英里？

Yes. Thanks, Paul. I can let Nick kind of weigh in on some of that. We're not, yes, I think lateral length is just one of the things that we're working on. Nick described a bunch more on an earlier question around completion efficiency and how we're attacking the spacing and the stacking. So I think it's all of those things that we're trying to attack, and they're different depending on where you're at in the Bakken, the Eagle Ford or the Permian. But we have deep experience in all 3 of those basins and using all that knowledge to make sure we're maximizing the recovery and minimizing the cost of supply, and maximizing the efficiency that we're getting out of it. Specifically on lateral lengths, I can let Nick weigh in on that.

是的。謝謝，保羅。我可以讓尼克參與其中。我們不是，是的，我認為橫向長度只是我們正在研究的事情之一。尼克在之前的一個問題上描述了更多關於完成效率以及我們如何攻擊間距和堆疊的問題。所以我認為我們正在努力解決所有這些問題，並且根據您在巴肯、鷹灘或二疊紀的位置，它們會有所不同。但我們在這三個盆地都擁有豐富的經驗，並利用所有這些知識來確保我們最大限度地提高採收率、最大限度地降低供應成本，並最大限度地提高我們從中獲得的效率。特別是在橫向長度方面，我可以讓尼克權衡一下。

Yes, Paul. Just to reiterate, again, we've got a significant deep and broad, long lateral inventory across the assets. Just mentioned previously, the 80% of Permian inventory is 1.5 miles or greater, and the 60% greater than 2 miles, and we continue to see more and more 3-mile laterals and are very -- we're seeing good results coming out of the 3-mile laterals, both from our 2022 program, as well as 2023. So we continue to see increases in that space.

是的，保羅。再次重申，我們在資產中擁有大量深度、廣泛、長期的橫向庫存。正如前面提到的，二疊紀庫存的 80% 為 1.5 英里或以上，60% 為 2 英里以上，我們繼續看到越來越多的 3 英里支流，而且我們看到了良好的結果。3 英里 支線，來自我們2022 年和2023 年的計劃。因此，我們繼續看到該空間的增加。

Our teams continue from a BD standpoint and a land standpoint, look at core of opportunities. And this is not only in the Permian. But as Ryan just mentioned in the Bakken, we just finished up some trades there to allow us to drill some 3-mile laterals in the future. So we're increasing the portfolio of long laterals across all 4 assets.

我們的團隊繼續從 BD 的角度和土地的角度出發，並著眼於機會的核心。這不僅發生在二疊紀。但正如 Ryan 剛剛在 Bakken 中提到的那樣，我們剛剛完成了那裡的一些交易，以便我們將來可以鑽一些 3 英里的支管。因此，我們正在增加所有 4 種資產的長支線投資組合。

The thing that you had talked about related to how far can you go, I'll just step back, the 3-mile laterals that we're seeing over the last couple of years are performing well. We're very encouraged with the results. You want to make sure you get contribution across that entire lateral length.

你剛才談到的關於你能走多遠的問題，我退一步來說，我們在過去幾年中看到的 3 英里橫向跑表現良好。我們對結果感到非常鼓舞。您需要確保在整個橫向長度上都能做出貢獻。

As we would think about going further longer lateral lengths, I think you mentioned 4 miles, there's a trade-off. You can potentially drive down and improve cost of supply. And then also, you have to look through the lens of operational risk, because that operational risk is also, not only in development drilling, actually drilling the well, but also future workovers. And so we're looking at that in the future, but I'll leave you with the fact that the 3-mile laterals performed extremely well, and we've got a very deep inventory of long laterals, as I mentioned earlier.

當我們考慮進一步延長橫向長度時，我想你提到了 4 英里，這是一個權衡。您有可能降低並改善供應成本。此外，您還必須從操作風險的角度來看待，因為操作風險不僅存在於開發鑽井、實際鑽井中，還存在於未來的修井中。所以我們會在未來考慮這個問題，但我要告訴你們一個事實，即 3 英里的支線表現非常好，而且正如我之前提到的，我們擁有非常深入的長支線庫存。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Silverstein with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的喬許‧西爾弗斯坦 (Josh Silverstein)。

Ryan, I appreciate the comments before on the return to capital thoughts for next year. I was curious with the added debt from the Surmont transaction, how you might think of additional shareholder returns versus this year or that want to build cash, or pay down the debt there.

瑞安，我很欣賞之前關於明年回歸資本想法的評論。我很好奇蘇爾蒙特交易帶來的額外債務，與今年相比，你會如何看待額外的股東回報，或想要累積現金，或償還那裡的債務。

Yes, I think we're in that planning process as we kind of think about next year and all those moving pieces. So I say it looks to me like at this 10 seconds, the commodity prices are kind of very similar to where we were coming out at the end of last year coming into the beginning of 2023. So I think that framework around total return as a starting point is pretty good for 2024. We'll just have to see what commodity prices are as we go forward.

是的，我認為我們正在製定計劃，因為我們正在考慮明年和所有這些變化的事情。所以我說，在我看來，在這 10 秒內，大宗商品價格與我們去年年底到 2023 年初的價格非常相似。所以我認為圍繞總回報的框架是2024 年的起點相當不錯。我們只需要看看未來的大宗商品價格是多少。

And we have a plan, and Bill can address that, to kind of pay off debt as it comes due over the next few years. That gets us down to our original target of $15 billion in gross debt, and we can continue to do that. And I think if we had a very large up cycle to the price -- commodity price, we might look at adding more cash to the balance sheet as well. So I think all 3 of those are in play as we think about, what we do over the course of each quarter as we go into next year.

我們有一個計劃，比爾可以解決這個問題，以償還未來幾年到期的債務。這使我們的債務總額達到了 150 億美元的最初目標，而且我們可以繼續這樣做。我認為，如果我們的價格（大宗商品價格）有一個非常大的上漲週期，我們可能也會考慮在資產負債表中增加更多現金。因此，我認為，當我們思考進入明年時每個季度的工作時，這三個因素都在發揮作用。

Our next question comes from the line of Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的 Sam Margolin。

I guess I wanted to ask for an update maybe on the Venezuela process. It's come up in prior calls and the process is advancing.

我想我想詢問委內瑞拉進程的最新情況。這個問題在先前的電話會議中已經提到過，並且流程正在推進中。

And I guess, specifically, I want to ask about a scenario where the assets that aren't strategic to you get returned or surrendered to creditors, and what might be the path forward from there because it's a large claim, and it's material. And it seems like it will be a good outcome for you, but might require some actions in the aftermath.

我想，具體來說，我想問的是一種情況，即對您來說不具有戰略意義的資產被歸還或移交給債權人，以及從那裡開始的前進道路是什麼，因為這是一項大額索賠，而且很重要。這對你來說似乎是一個很好的結果，但可能需要在事後採取一些行動。

Yes. Sure, Andrew. It's Tim. But yes, we're in a process with the Venezuelans right now. They also have a considerable amount of money through both our ICSID and our ICC claims, approaching over $8 billion. They own some -- on the full judgment on the ICC, they still owe us $1.4 billion, $1.5 billion. So we're pursuing that pretty aggressively. I think we're watching the progress closely.

是的。當然，安德魯。是蒂姆。但是，是的，我們現在正在與委內瑞拉人合作。他們也透過我們的 ICSID 和 ICC 索賠獲得了大量資金，接近超過 80 億美元。他們擁有一些——根據國際刑事法院的全面判決，他們仍然欠14億美元、15億美元。所以我們正在非常積極地追求這一目標。我認為我們正在密切關注進展。

Clearly, the U.S. government has provided a lifting of some, if not all, of the sanctions here, waiting on results of what the Venezuelans do on the other end for free and fair election. So that may create a bit of an opening. But this is a long process, but we're pretty committed to doing everything we can to make sure we get our money out of Venezuela that they owe us. And that's what we're focused on.

顯然，美國政府已經取消了部分（如果不是全部）制裁，等待委內瑞拉人在另一端為自由公正的選舉所做的事情的結果。所以這可能會創造一些空缺。但這是一個漫長的過程，但我們非常致力於盡一切努力確保我們從委內瑞拉拿回他們欠我們的錢。這就是我們關注的重點。

Our next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

My question, you get on this a little bit, just on M&A specifically, why I appreciate your earlier comments about any assets needing in the 10-year plan. I'm just wondering, is there a preference for, when you're seeing things shorter or longer-term cycle assets? And just also curious on how you view valuations of some of the recent public deals.

我的問題是，您對此進行了一些討論，特別是在併購方面，為什麼我很欣賞您之前對十年計劃中需要的任何資產的評論。我只是想知道，當您看到短期或長期週期資產時，是否有偏好？我也很好奇您如何看待最近一些公開交易的估值。

Well, certainly, the way we look at it, Neal, is we like a global -- we like a diverse portfolio. We like it to be balanced. I think we're mostly focused on what's the cost of supply to make sure it fits our framework around that, and that any asset that you bring into the company, make sure it compete for capital on an ongoing basis against a pretty rich, deep, durable, long life and a lot of inventory sitting in the company today.

好吧，當然，尼爾，我們看待它的方式是我們喜歡全球化——我們喜歡多元化的投資組合。我們喜歡它是平衡的。我認為我們主要關注的是供應成本是多少，以確保它符合我們的框架，並且你帶入公司的任何資產，確保它與相當豐富、深厚的資本持續競爭。 ，耐用，壽命長，目前公司有大量庫存。

So as I said, it's a pretty high bar. I don't know quite how to comment on the recent deals that have been done. Those are transactions. Those are really good companies that were bought. Clearly, they have good assets. We're pretty familiar with them. We've watched them for a long period of time, and they're good companies with good assets. Transactions were, in a part of the cycle, that's little frothy and probably at a higher mid-cycle price than we would ascribe to them, I guess. Maybe that's all I should probably say.

正如我所說，這是一個相當高的標準。我不太知道如何評論最近完成的交易。這些都是交易。這些都是被收購的非常好的公司。顯然，他們擁有良好的資產。我們對他們很熟悉。我們觀察了他們很長一段時間，他們是擁有良好資產的好公司。我猜，在周期的一部分中，交易幾乎沒有泡沫，而且週期中期的價格可能比我們想像的要高。也許這就是我該說的。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Scott Hanold。

I was just kind of curious, does consolidation that creates larger peers in the Permian impact the competitiveness of comps development and positioning. Specifically, if you look at services and midstream capacity, as you kind of move forward on your -- kind of 7% growth CAGR over the next decade plus?

我只是有點好奇，在二疊紀創造更大同行的整合是否會影響公司開發和定位的競爭力。具體來說，如果你看看服務和中游產能，你會在未來十年內實現 7% 的複合年增長率嗎？

I don't think we see a huge issue there at all, Scott. There's a lot of operators already in the Permian Basin. And it seems like the service side of the business has been accommodating all the activity that we have out there. There's been periods of tightness on certain categories of spend there are certain services that, by and large, we don't think it's going to be a big issue for us going forward.

我認為我們根本沒有看到什麼大問題，斯科特。二疊紀盆地已經有很多操作員。業務的服務方面似乎一直在適應我們在那裡開展的所有活動。某些類別的支出和某些服務曾經歷過一段時期的緊張時期，總的來說，我們認為這對我們未來來說不會是一個大問題。

The advantage of being one of those large operators in the basin is, you get the attention of the service companies because they know you've got a program that's durable. They know you got a program that has some link to it. They know you're not going to be whipsawing them around. And those are the kind of customers that they want to work for. And then those are the -- so they tend to work with us, and so we don't see any exposure to the current consolidation trend in the Permian, and it's going to continue. No questions. So more probably needs to happen.

成為流域內大型營運商之一的優勢在於，您會引起服務公司的注意，因為他們知道您擁有持久的計劃。他們知道你有一個程序，並且有一些連結。他們知道你不會左右他們。這些就是他們想要為之工作的客戶。然後這些就是——所以他們傾向於與我們合作，所以我們沒有看到任何暴露於二疊紀當前整合趨勢的風險，而這種趨勢將繼續下去。沒有問題。所以可能需要發生更多的事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin MacCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Pickering Energy Partners 的 Kevin MacCurdy。

I wonder if you can provide your current thoughts on adding activity in the Lower 48. I know you said that you can grow production without adding, but others are looking at the current service prices and commodity prices and seeing this is a good time to add. So I just want to hear your most recent thoughts on that.

我想知道您是否可以提供您目前對在48 個州增加活動的想法。我知道您說過，您可以在不增加的情況下增加產量，但其他人正在關注當前的服務價格和商品價格，認為這是增加產量的好時機。所以我只想聽聽你對此的最新想法。

Well, I think that will be part of the process we're going through right now, Kevin. I think we're trying to think about what 2024 looks like, but our starting point is, we're seeing the efficiencies and we're seeing growth coming out of our assets. So we started to a place that says, let's just think about flat scope, and then we'll think about these other drivers like commodity price or service capability to your point and make a decision as we go into next year about what the scope and the resulting capital will look like.

嗯，我認為這將是我們現在正在經歷的過程的一部分，凱文。我認為我們正在嘗試思考 2024 年會是什麼樣子，但我們的出發點是，我們看到了效率，我們看到了資產的成長。因此，我們開始說，讓我們只考慮統一範圍，然後我們會考慮其他驅動因素，例如商品價格或服務能力，並在明年進入範圍和範圍時做出決定。由此產生的資本看起來像。

Our last question will come from the line of Leo Mariani with ROTH MKM.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Leo Mariani 與 ROTH MKM 的關係。

I wondered if you could just comment on what you're seeing in terms of -- kind of Lower 48 service cost trends. I think there was a lot of expectations a handful of months ago that costs may be falling, but now commodities that have recovered. Maybe just give us your perspective of what you're seeing there on leading edge costs.

我想知道您是否可以就您所看到的 48 個州較低的服務成本趨勢發表評論。我認為幾個月前人們普遍預期成本可能會下降，但現在大宗商品已經復甦。也許只需告訴我們您對前沿成本的看法。

Yes. Leo, it's Dominic. So as we talked about in the last quarter, we're certainly seeing some areas of deflation of Lower 48.

是的。利奧，我是多明尼克。正如我們在上個季度談到的，我們肯定會看到 48 國集團的某些領域出現通貨緊縮。

I think, if you look at our capital spend this quarter, that's -- part of that trend is in there, in terms of being lower capital this quarter than the previous. But we still expect our overall company capital inflation to average out in the mid-single digits this year over last year, and that's all reflected in our guidance.

我認為，如果你看看我們本季的資本支出，你會發現這一趨勢的一部分就在那裡，因為本季的資本低於上一季。但我們仍然預期今年公司整體資本通膨將比去年平均在中個位數，這一切都反映在我們的指導下。

I would say that as we approach the end of the year, and this is something that is in our thought process right now is -- kind of Ryan was alluding to. We do think the market is kind of finally balanced. We do see some deflation coming through, but we have seen oil and gas prices recently strengthened.

我想說的是，當我們接近年底時，這就是我們現在思考過程中的事情——瑞安所提到的。我們確實認為市場最終達到了平衡。我們確實看到了一些通貨緊縮的出現，但我們看到石油和天然氣價格最近走強。

So what we're looking very hard is, how we think that will trend into next year. But I think, as I said earlier, in terms of our overall capital expectations next year, very much in line with what we laid out at AIM, of course, plus our additional interest in Surmont. So that's just something that we're watching closely, but that gives you a good sense of how we're thinking, so.

因此，我們正在努力尋找明年的趨勢。但我認為，正如我之前所說，就我們明年的整體資本預期而言，當然與我們在 AIM 的佈局非常一致，再加上我們對 Surmont 的額外興趣。所以這只是我們正在密切關注的事情，但這可以讓你很好地了解我們的想法。

We have no further questions at this time. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。