康菲 (COP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Q4 2022 ConocoPhillips Earnings Conference Call. My name is (inaudible), and I will be your operator for today's call.

歡迎來到康菲石油公司 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。我的名字是（聽不清），我將是您今天電話會議的接線員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Phil Gresh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Phil Gresh。先生，您可以開始了。

Yes. Thank you, operator, and welcome to everyone joining us for our fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips' leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Bill Bullock, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Dominic Macklon, Executive Vice President of Strategy, Sustainability and Technology; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48; Andy O'Brien, Senior Vice President of Global Operations; and Tim Leach, adviser to the CEO.

是的。謝謝運營商，歡迎大家加入我們的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾名成員，包括董事長兼首席執行官 Ryan Lance； Bill Bullock，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；戰略、可持續發展和技術執行副總裁 Dominic Macklon； Lower 48 執行副總裁 Nick Olds；全球運營高級副總裁 Andy O'Brien；以及 CEO 顧問蒂姆·利奇 (Tim Leach)。

Ryan and Bill will kick off the call with opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions. A few quick reminders: First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a presentation which you can find on our Investor Relations website.

Ryan 和 Bill 將以開場白開始電話會議，之後團隊將回答您的問題。一些快速提醒：首先，在今天發布的同時，我們還發布了補充財務材料和演示文稿，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到這些材料。

Second, during this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings.

其次，在本次電話會議期間，我們將根據當前預期做出前瞻性陳述。由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。

Finally, to make -- we will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website.

最後，我們將參考一些非 GAAP 財務措施。可以在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到與最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的對賬。

With that, I will turn the call over to Ryan.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給瑞安。

Thanks, Phil, and thank you to everyone for joining our fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call.

謝謝，菲爾，感謝大家參加我們 2022 年第四季度的收益電話會議。

As we sit here today, there are a number of cross-currents in the global economy. While the energy sector is not immune to potential macro headwinds, our fundamental outlook remains constructive. On the demand side, we think that growth will continue in 2023, aided by a normalization in China mobility following the lifting of COVID restrictions. On the supply side, we believe the continued producer discipline and the expected impacts of Russian oil and product sanctions are likely to keep balances tight. So while commodity prices are currently not as high as they averaged in 2022, we see duration to this up cycle.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，全球經濟中存在許多交叉趨勢。儘管能源行業也不能倖免於潛在的宏觀不利因素，但我們的基本面前景仍然樂觀。在需求方面，我們認為在取消 COVID 限制後中國流動性正常化的幫助下，增長將在 2023 年繼續。在供應方面，我們認為持續的生產商紀律以及俄羅斯石油和產品製裁的預期影響可能會保持供應緊張。因此，雖然大宗商品價格目前沒有 2022 年的平均水平那麼高，但我們認為這個上升週期會持續一段時間。

Now stepping back, we remain steadfast in our view that a successful energy transition must meet society's fundamental need for secure, reliable and affordable energy while also progressing towards a lower carbon future. While we all recognize the challenges that global energy policymakers face to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, it is clear that doing so requires an all-the-above approach. This can be done by enacting policies that encourage the development of lower emission energy sources and oil and gas resources.

現在退一步，我們仍然堅定地認為，成功的能源轉型必須滿足社會對安全、可靠和負擔得起的能源的基本需求，同時還要朝著低碳未來邁進。雖然我們都認識到全球能源政策制定者在實現《巴黎協定》目標方面面臨的挑戰，但很明顯，這樣做需要採用上述所有方法。這可以通過制定鼓勵開發低排放能源和石油和天然氣資源的政策來實現。

These policies should include efforts aimed at fiscal stability, streamlining of the permitting process, increased transparency on timelines and supporting critical infrastructure. These are not just necessary for the oil and gas industry, but also for nuclear, hydrogen and renewables, all of which will be necessary to deliver on the energy transition.

這些政策應包括旨在實現財政穩定、簡化許可程序、提高時間表透明度和支持關鍵基礎設施的努力。這些不僅是石油和天然氣行業所必需的，而且對於核能、氫能和可再生能源也是如此，所有這些都是實現能源轉型所必需的。

At the end of the day, it's critical for our administration to remember that North American energy production is a stabilizing force for both global energy security and meeting energy transition demand. Meeting that demand will require investments in medium and long cycle projects in addition to short-cycle U.S. shale. This is why you see ConocoPhillips leaning a bit further across our deep and diversified portfolio in 2023, whether it's the Lower 48, where we achieved record production in 2022 or our diversified global portfolio, ConocoPhillips is well positioned to meet the world's long-term energy needs while also reducing our own emissions footprint.

歸根結底，我們的政府必須記住，北美能源生產是全球能源安全和滿足能源轉型需求的穩定力量。除了短週期的美國頁岩油之外，滿足這一需求還需要對中長周期項目進行投資。這就是為什麼您會看到康菲石油公司在 2023 年進一步傾斜我們深度和多元化的投資組合，無論是美國本土 48 國，我們在 2022 年實現了創紀錄的產量，還是我們多元化的全球投資組合，康菲石油公司都處於有利地位，可以滿足世界的長期能源需求需求，同時也減少了我們自己的排放足跡。

Shifting to our 2022 performance. ConocoPhillips showed continuous strong execution across our triple mandate. We generated a trailing 12-month return on capital employed of 27%, the highest since the spin. We delivered on our plan to return $15 billion of capital to our shareholders, which represented 53% of our CFO, well in excess of our greater than 30% annual through-the-cycle commitment, and we further advanced our net zero operational emissions ambition with a new medium-term methane intensity target consistent with our recent commitment to joining OGMP 2.0.

轉向我們 2022 年的表現。康菲石油公司在我們的三重任務中表現出持續的強勁執行力。我們過去 12 個月的已動用資本回報率為 27%，是分拆以來的最高水平。我們實現了向股東返還 150 億美元資本的計劃，占我們 CFO 的 53%，遠遠超過我們每年超過 30% 的全週期承諾，我們進一步推進了我們的淨零運營排放目標新的中期甲烷強度目標符合我們最近加入 OGMP 2.0 的承諾。

Now looking ahead, ConocoPhillips is well positioned to further deliver on our triple mandate in 2023 with a well-balanced capital allocation strategy. This morning, we announced a plan to return $11 billion of capital to shareholders, which represents about 50% of our forecasted CFO at $80 WTI.

現在展望未來，康菲石油公司已做好充分準備，通過均衡的資本配置戰略，在 2023 年進一步履行我們的三重使命。今天早上，我們宣布了一項向股東返還 110 億美元資本的計劃，這相當於我們預測的 CFO 的 50%，即 80 美元的 WTI。

The other half of our cash flow will be dedicated to reinvesting in the business. From a portfolio perspective, our deep and well-diversified asset base is well positioned to generate solid cash flow growth for decades to come. This is further evidenced by our organic reserve replacement ratio of 177% in 2022. We're also enthusiastic about our new LNG opportunities we are participating in, in Qatar and the United States, which are highly complementary to our existing LNG business, and we look forward to providing you a comprehensive update about our long-term strategy and our financial outlook at our upcoming Analyst and Investor Meeting on April 12 at the New York Stock Exchange.

我們現金流的另一半將用於對業務的再投資。從投資組合的角度來看，我們深厚且多元化的資產基礎處於有利地位，可以在未來幾十年產生穩健的現金流增長。我們在 2022 年的有機儲量替代率為 177%，這進一步證明了這一點。我們也對我們在卡塔爾和美國參與的新液化天然氣機會充滿熱情，這與我們現有的液化天然氣業務高度互補，我們期待在即將於 4 月 12 日在紐約證券交易所舉行的分析師和投資者會議上為您提供有關我們長期戰略和財務前景的全面更新。

Now let me turn the call over to Bill to cover our fourth quarter performance and 2023 guidance in a bit more detail.

現在讓我把電話轉給比爾，更詳細地介紹我們第四季度的業績和 2023 年的指導。

Thanks, Ryan. Starting with fourth quarter results. We generated $2.71 in adjusted earnings per share. Fourth quarter production was 1,758,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which included a 27,000 barrel a day negative impact from weather in the Lower 48. Lower 48 production averaged 997,000, including 671,000 from the Permian, 214,000 from the Eagle Ford and 96,000 from the Bakken.

謝謝，瑞安。從第四季度的結果開始。我們產生了 2.71 美元的調整後每股收益。第四季度的產量為每天 1,758,000 桶石油當量，其中包括 27,000 桶石油當量對下 48 州的天氣造成的負面影響。下 48 州的平均產量為 997,000 桶，其中 671,000 桶來自二疊紀，214,000 桶來自 Eagle Ford，96,000 桶來自 Bakken .

Moving to cash flow. Fourth quarter CFO was $6.5 billion excluding working capital at an average WTI price of $83 per barrel. APLNG distributions were $639 million and fourth quarter capital expenditures were $2.5 billion, including $2.1 billion of base capital and $300 million for acquisitions and North Field East payments.

轉向現金流。第四季度首席財務官為 65 億美元，不包括營運資金，平均 WTI 價格為每桶 83 美元。 APLNG 分配為 6.39 億美元，第四季度資本支出為 25 億美元，包括 21 億美元的基礎資本和 3 億美元的收購和 North Field East 支付。

On capital allocation, we returned $5.1 billion to shareholders through ordinary dividends, VROC payments and share buybacks while also reducing gross debt by $400 million. Full year CFO was $28.5 billion, excluding working capital at an average WTI price of $94 per barrel in 2022. Full year APLNG distributions were $2.2 billion and full year total CapEx was $10.2 billion with base CapEx achieving our guidance of $8.1 billion and $2.1 billion of acquisitions in North Field East payments. Full year return of capital was $15 billion, while $3.4 billion went to debt reduction with cash and short-term investments ending the year at $9.5 billion.

在資本配置方面，我們通過普通股息、VROC 支付和股票回購向股東返還了 51 億美元，同時還減少了 4 億美元的總債務。全年 CFO 為 285 億美元，不包括 2022 年 WTI 平均價格為每桶 94 美元的營運資金。全年 APLNG 分配為 22 億美元，全年總資本支出為 102 億美元，基本資本支出達到了我們 81 億美元和 21 億美元的指導收購北田東支付。全年資本回報為 150 億美元，而 34 億美元用於減少債務，年底現金和短期投資為 95 億美元。

Turning to 2023 guidance. We forecast full year production will be in a range of 1.76 million to 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, which represents 1% to 4% of organic growth. Our first quarter production guidance range is 1.72 million to 1.76 million, which includes $35,000 of planned maintenance, primarily in Qatar and the Lower 48. Our full year planned maintenance is expected to be similar to 2022.

轉向 2023 年指導。我們預測全年產量將在每天 176 萬至 180 萬桶石油當量的範圍內，佔有機增長的 1% 至 4%。我們第一季度的生產指導範圍是 172 萬到 176 萬，其中包括 35,000 美元的計劃維護，主要是在卡塔爾和本土 48 個地區。我們全年的計劃維護預計與 2022 年相似。

On capital spending, we expect a range of $10.7 billion to $11.3 billion, which I will discuss in more detail in a moment. We expect operating costs of $8.2 billion, DD&A of $8.1 billion and corporate segment net loss of $900 million.

在資本支出方面，我們預計在 107 億美元至 113 億美元之間，稍後我將對此進行更詳細的討論。我們預計運營成本為 82 億美元，DD&A 為 81 億美元，公司部門淨虧損為 9 億美元。

For 2023 cash flow, we forecast $22 billion in CFO at $80 barrel WTI, 85 Brent and 325 Henry Hub at current strip prices for regional differentials. Included in our cash flow forecast is $1.9 billion in APLNG distributions with $600 million expected in the first quarter.

對於 2023 年的現金流，我們預測 CFO 為 220 億美元，WTI 價格為 80 美元，布倫特原油價格為 85 美元，Henry Hub 價格為 325 美元，以當前地區差異的帶鋼價格計算。我們的現金流預測中包括 19 億美元的 APLNG 分配，預計第一季度為 6 億美元。

Now regarding CapEx, we provide a waterfall in our prepared materials bridging 2022 actual spending to 2023 guidance. Starting with base capital spending. We forecast an increase from $8.1 billion in 2022 to a range of $9.1 billion to $9.3 billion in 2023. The remaining $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion is allocated to longer-term projects. Of this amount, $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion is for LNG projects, which includes Port Arthur, North Field East and North Field South. For Port Arthur specifically, after factoring in expected project financing, we forecast that ConocoPhillips net investment will be just under $2 billion over the 5-year investment period.

現在關於資本支出，我們在準備好的材料中提供了一個瀑布，將 2022 年的實際支出與 2023 年的指導聯繫起來。從基本資本支出開始。我們預測將從 2022 年的 81 億美元增加到 2023 年的 91 億美元至 93 億美元。剩餘的 16 億美元至 20 億美元將分配給長期項目。其中，15 億至 16 億美元用於液化天然氣項目，其中包括亞瑟港、North Field East 和 North Field South。具體到亞瑟港，在考慮到預期的項目融資後，我們預測康菲石油公司在 5 年投資期內的淨投資將略低於 20 億美元。

However, more than half of this capital investment will be in 2023. For Willow, we're guiding to $100 million to $400 million of incremental spending with the high end of this range, assuming that the project is sanctioned this year.

然而，這一資本投資的一半以上將在 2023 年進行。對於 Willow，假設該項目今年獲得批准，我們將引導 1 億至 4 億美元的增量支出達到這一範圍的高端。

In summary, we're happy with our strong 2022 results, which would not be possible without the hard work and dedication of our talented workforce. And we are well positioned to balance investing in our deep and diversified portfolio this year while also continuing to return capital to our shareholders.

總而言之，我們對 2022 年的強勁業績感到滿意，這離不開我們才華橫溢的員工隊伍的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。今年我們有能力平衡對我們深度和多元化投資組合的投資，同時繼續向我們的股東返還資本。

That concludes our prepared remarks. I'll now turn the call back over to Phil.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。我現在將電話轉回給 Phil。

Great. Thanks, Bill. As a reminder, just before we go to the Q&A, we ask that you please keep it to one question and a follow-up. With that, (inaudible), we're ready to turn it over to you for Q&A.

偉大的。謝謝，比爾。提醒一下，就在我們進行問答之前，我們要求您將其保留為一個問題和一個跟進。有了這個，（聽不清），我們準備好將它交給您進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question will come from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們的第一個問題將來自高盛的尼爾梅塔。

Yes. Our first question is around Willow and recognize there's still some gating factors to getting it towards FID, but it seems to be moving in the right direction. So just talk about how you're thinking about that project, what remains outstanding to get it to FID and then any thoughts on costs as well. The latest number we have is $8 billion all in. Is that still good to go by? Or how should we think about that?

是的。我們的第一個問題是關於 Willow 的，我們認識到仍然有一些限制因素可以讓它走向 FID，但它似乎正朝著正確的方向發展。因此，只需談談您是如何考慮該項目的，將其提交給 FID 仍然有待解決的問題，然後還有關於成本的任何想法。我們擁有的最新數字是 80 億美元。這還好嗎？或者我們應該如何考慮？

Neil, this is Andy. Yes, there's been a lot of moving parts on Willow since the last earnings call. So let me just step through where we are in the overall approval process and then I can clear where we are with CapEx and scope. So with the approval process, I think most people saw that the final supplemental environmental impact statement was released by the Biden administration earlier this week. Now that should be published in the federal register in the next day or so and then that starts the required 30-day clock before the ROD can be issued. Now given the Biden administration's commitment to the Alaska congressional delegation, we then expect to receive that ROD in the first week of March. Once the ROD has been issued, our focus for 2023 will be to immediately initiate gravel road construction, ramp-up fabrication and supply chain activities. Now we're going to need to take a look at the ROD in some detail, but assuming it's consistent with the BLM's 3-pad preferred alternative, and there are no new unworked restrictions added, we would then proceed to final investment decision.

尼爾，這是安迪。是的，自上次財報電話會議以來，Willow 出現了很多變化。因此，讓我逐步了解我們在整個審批流程中所處的位置，然後我可以清楚地了解我們在資本支出和範圍方面的位置。所以在審批過程中，我想大多數人都看到了拜登政府本週早些時候發布的最終補充環境影響報告書。現在應該在第二天左右在聯邦公報上公佈，然後在發布 ROD 之前啟動所需的 30 天時鐘。現在鑑於拜登政府對阿拉斯加國會代表團的承諾，我們預計將在 3 月的第一周收到該 ROD。一旦 ROD 發布，我們 2023 年的重點將是立即啟動碎石路建設、爬坡製造和供應鏈活動。現在我們需要詳細查看 ROD，但假設它與 BLM 的 3-pad 首選替代方案一致，並且沒有添加新的未使用的限制，那麼我們將繼續進行最終投資決策。

So switching to CapEx. 2023 is very dependent on the ROD timing. And as Bill mentioned, we've given a range. So with the ROD timing, any resolutions of outstanding issues, what we're guiding is about $100 million to $400 million of incremental spend in 2023. In terms of the total project costs, we have recently gone out to market to update our cost estimates, and we have seen some inflationary pressures.

所以轉向資本支出。 2023 非常依賴於 ROD 時間。正如 Bill 提到的，我們已經給出了一個範圍。因此，根據 ROD 時間安排，任何未決問題的解決方案，我們指導的是 2023 年增加約 1 億至 4 億美元的支出。就項目總成本而言，我們最近已經上市更新我們的成本估算，我們已經看到了一些通脹壓力。

We've also refined the scope, including an update to accommodate the BLM's 3-pad preferred alternative. So we're in the process of finalizing our cost estimates, but we'd anticipate the AFE to first production to be in the $7 billion to $7.5 billion range. Of the increase versus the update we provided in 2021, it has been about 50-50 between inflation and scope refinement. So that gives you a pretty good update on where we are with Willow. And then at our April Investor Day, we'll be happy go into some more details.

我們還改進了範圍，包括更新以適應 BLM 的 3 墊首選替代方案。所以我們正在最終確定我們的成本估算，但我們預計 AFE 的首次生產將在 70 億至 75 億美元的範圍內。與我們在 2021 年提供的更新相比，通貨膨脹和範圍細化之間的增長約為 50-50。這樣您就可以很好地了解我們與 Willow 的進展情況。然後在我們的 4 月投資者日，我們將很高興進入更多細節。

And that 7.5%, Andy, compares to (inaudible), it sounds like, it would be the apples-to-apples. And then...

而那 7.5%，安迪，與（聽不清）相比，聽起來像是同類產品。進而...

That's correct. That's an apples-to-apples.

這是正確的。這是一個蘋果對蘋果。

And then the follow-up is just around return of capital. Last year was an outstanding year, 53% back to shareholders of the cash flow. And the guidance this year, $11 billion also implies very strong return of capital number. I know we often anchored to the 30% or greater than 30%. But is the message we should be interpreting that there's a new normal here around return of capital and the bar has been reset higher?

然後後續就是圍繞資金回籠。去年是傑出的一年，53%的現金流回饋給股東。而今年的指引，110 億美元也意味著非常強勁的資本回報數字。我知道我們經常錨定在 30% 或大於 30%。但是，我們應該解釋的信息是圍繞資本回報出現新常態並且門檻已經重新設置得更高嗎？

No, we're not trying to message that. What I remind people is the 30% commitment that we have is through the cycle commitment. We've also signaled to -- or we have also told the shareholders that when prices are above our mid-cycle price, you should expect higher distributions for the company, and that's consistent with what we've done over the last number of years. So as we look today, where the strip is trading where the regional differentials are at, we've kind of picked $11 billion at an $80 price deck. So that's how we're going into the year.

不，我們不是要傳達那個信息。我提醒人們的是，我們的 30% 承諾是通過週期承諾。我們還發出信號 - 或者我們也告訴股東，當價格高於我們的中期價格時，您應該期望公司的分配更高，這與我們過去幾年所做的一致.因此，正如我們今天所看到的那樣，在區域差異所在的地帶進行交易的地方，我們以 80 美元的價格選擇了 110 億美元。這就是我們進入這一年的方式。

It represents about 50% of our cash flow. But again, that 80 is well above our mid-cycle price in our commitments tied to -- through the cycle kind of mid-cycle price call, and it just represents that we are constructive with the environment that we see today, and we expect the prices to be above our mid-cycle price call, which should inform that the distributions would be above that 30% as well.

它約占我們現金流量的 50%。但同樣，80 遠高於我們承諾的中期價格——通過週期中的中期價格電話，它只是代表我們對今天看到的環境具有建設性，我們預計價格高於我們的中期價格電話，這應該表明分配也將高於 30%。

Our next question will come from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

So Bill, I think I didn't actually get to write down the numbers quickly enough. Could you just go through again the expected cadence of the 3 LNG projects. Full disclosure, I think we had expected a slower pace on Sempra or in Port Arthur, I guess. So can you just walk us through what you -- how you expect that cadence to look please? That would be really helpful. I've got a follow-up, please.

所以比爾，我想我實際上並沒有足夠快地寫下這些數字。您能再講一遍 3 個液化天然氣項目的預期節奏嗎？完全披露，我想我們曾預計在 Sempra 或亞瑟港的步伐會較慢，我猜。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下您希望這種節奏看起來如何？那真的很有幫助。我有跟進，請。

Yes. Sure, Doug. I'm happy to. So let me just kind of start with a bit of a high-level view. We've put a bridge from 2022 to '23 in our documents for today. And I'll just -- I'll start with kind of our exit rate. So if you look at our fourth quarter base capital spend, that would annualize out to about $8.9 billion with a low single-digit inflation rate versus '22 exit rate. And we've got some phasing in Norway and the additional incremental emissions reduction that gets you to about 9.2, which is midpoint of our guidance. And then really, the incremental spend is on LNG projects in Willow and that gets us to $11 billion midpoint of the guidance range.

是的。當然，道格。我很樂意。因此，讓我先從一個高層次的觀點開始。我們在今天的文件中列出了從 2022 年到 23 年的橋樑。我會 - 我將從我們的退出率開始。因此，如果你看一下我們第四季度的基本資本支出，那將年化為約 89 億美元，通貨膨脹率與 22 年退出率相比較低。我們在挪威進行了一些分階段和額外的增量減排，使您達到 9.2 左右，這是我們指導的中點。然後實際上，增量支出是在 Willow 的液化天然氣項目上，這使我們達到了指導範圍的中點 110 億美元。

And I think that the primary issue here on cadence is likely the front-end nature of Port Arthur LNG spend, which really the market had no way of knowing. So as you'll recall, Sempra has communicated a Phase 1 gross cost of $10.5 billion for the EPC, on top of which there's going to be owners' costs and other miscellaneous costs to bring the project online.

而且我認為這里關於節奏的主要問題可能是亞瑟港液化天然氣支出的前端性質，這實際上是市場無法知道的。所以你會記得，Sempra 已經為 EPC 傳達了 105 億美元的第一階段總成本，最重要的是業主成本和其他雜項成本，以使該項目上線。

And Doug, the project currently lining up debt financing for a portion of the spend, so you roll that all together, we would expect our 30% share of the net equity capital to be just under $2 billion over the 5-year investment period. But the front-end nature of equity component is going to result in over half of that $2 billion occurring in 2023. That's what we've included in our 2023 capital guidance.

而 Doug，該項目目前正在為部分支出安排債務融資，所以你把這些加在一起，我們預計在 5 年的投資期內，我們 30% 的淨股本份額將略低於 20 億美元。但股權部分的前端性質將導致這 20 億美元中的一半以上發生在 2023 年。這就是我們在 2023 年資本指導中所包含的內容。

Now the project is still waiting on FID, but we do expect that in the first quarter, and we will be talking to you more about this in April. But if you've been modeling a more ratable spend over 5 years for Port Arthur, that would be about $400 million in 2023 or about to $600 million to $700 million less than our guidance. So I think that, that might be some of what you're seeing in kind of the LNG spend, and I think it's obvious with over half of the Port Arthur spend in 2023, obviously, the spending in 2024 and beyond is going to be less than a ratable rate. But I think that's probably the main gap in LNG spending that you're seeing.

現在該項目仍在等待 FID，但我們確實希望在第一季度完成，我們將在 4 月份與您更多地討論這個問題。但是，如果您一直在為亞瑟港 5 年的支出建模，那麼到 2023 年將達到約 4 億美元，或者比我們的指導低約 6 億至 7 億美元。所以我認為，這可能是你在液化天然氣支出中看到的一些情況，我認為很明顯，2023 年亞瑟港超過一半的支出，顯然，2024 年及以後的支出將是低於額定值。但我認為這可能是您所看到的液化天然氣支出的主要差距。

That's really helpful, Bill. And you're exactly right. We were not expecting half. But of course, that means that the other half is probably more ratable, I'm guessing, over time, but that's really helpful. My follow-up is a favorite topic of mine, Bill. I hate to get in the weeds here, but again, another sizable deferred tax credit this quarter, although it does kind of look a little bit more like your -- almost like you're moving to a new normal based on your U.S. spending, thinking IDCs and things of that nature. Can you move just -- am I thinking about that right? Should we be expecting a ratable deferred tax credit going forward in your cash flow? And I'll leave it there.

這真的很有幫助，比爾。你是對的。我們沒想到一半。但是，當然，這意味著另一半可能會更受歡迎，我猜，隨著時間的推移，但這真的很有幫助。我的後續行動是我最喜歡的話題，比爾。我不想在這裡糾纏不清，但是，本季度又一次可觀的遞延稅收抵免，雖然它看起來有點像你的 - 幾乎就像你正在根據你的美國支出轉向新常態，思考 IDC 和那種性質的東西。你能不能動一下——我考慮的對嗎？我們是否應該期待在您的現金流中獲得應納稅的遞延稅收抵免？我會把它留在那裡。

Well, yes. So deferred taxes were a source of $0.5 billion in the fourth quarter, Doug, and we had a source of about $700 million in the third quarter. Now the source of those deferred taxes is primarily due to the impact of intangible drilling costs and generating deferred tax liabilities now that we're in a U.S. cash tax paying position. Now as we look at 2023 at current investment levels, we'd expect deferred taxes are going to continue to generate a source of cash on a normalized basis. But I'd expect the deferred tax source full year to be lower in 2022.

嗯，是。所以遞延稅在第四季度是 5 億美元的來源，道格，我們在第三季度有大約 7 億美元的來源。現在，這些遞延稅款的來源主要是由於無形鑽井成本的影響以及由於我們處於美國現金納稅狀態而產生的遞延稅款負債。現在，當我們以當前的投資水平展望 2023 年時，我們預計遞延稅款將繼續在正常情況下產生現金來源。但我預計 2022 年全年的遞延稅源會更低。

Now we are in a U.S. cash tax paying position for the full year, but we also utilized all significant U.S. net operating losses, NOLs and EOR credit carryforwards in 2022. And that utilization generated a larger source of cash last year compared to what we're going to be seeing in 2023.

現在我們全年處於美國現金納稅狀態，但我們還利用了 2022 年所有重大的美國淨運營虧損、NOL 和 EOR 信貸結轉。與我們相比，去年這種利用產生了更大的現金來源我們將在 2023 年看到。

Our next question comes from Steve Richardson with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Steve Richardson。

Ryan, there's been a lot of focus on the Permian Basin of late, certainly from an industry perspective, and not all of it has been good, we'd say. And I'd love if you just took a moment and help us differentiate Conoco's assets in the basin, what you're seeing from your asset. And certainly, some of the performance speaks for itself, but I'd love if you could address that today.

瑞安，最近人們對二疊紀盆地有很多關注，當然是從行業的角度來看，但並不是所有的都是好的，我們會說。如果你只是花點時間幫助我們區分康菲在盆地的資產，我會很高興，你從你的資產中看到了什麼。當然，有些性能不言自明，但如果您今天能解決這個問題，我會很高興。

Yes. Thanks, Steve. Let me make a couple of comments, and then I'll turn it over to Nick for maybe a couple of his thoughts in a bit more detail. We're not worried about our long-term development plans in the Lower 48. We see durability to our plans. And I know there's been a bit of noise about productivity and length and durability. And we've been there for a long time. We know what we're doing after the acquisitions that we made over the last 1.5 years. And I don't have any concerns about the durability to length, the efficiency of our program. And maybe I'll let Nick provide a few more detail and color on that comment.

是的。謝謝，史蒂夫。讓我發表一些評論，然後我會把它轉交給尼克，也許他會更詳細地談談他的一些想法。我們並不擔心我們在美國本土 48 區的長期發展計劃。我們看到了我們計劃的持久性。而且我知道關於生產力、長度和耐用性有一些噪音。我們已經在那裡待了很長時間。在過去 1.5 年的收購之後，我們知道我們在做什麼。而且我對長度的耐用性以及我們程序的效率沒有任何擔憂。也許我會讓 Nick 提供更多關於該評論的細節和顏色。

Yes, so I'll give a little more color on that one. Let me start with just the well performance that we're seeing versus the tight curves. So if you look at our 2022 development wells, they've been performing slightly above the curve expectations across all 4 basins, including the Permian Basin. And that strong performance reinforces and validates the development plans that Ryan just mentioned, which is our focus on maximizing returns and recovery while minimizing the future interference. So if we step back in time, we've been incorporating a lot of the learning curve from our developments over the past 3 to 4 years.

是的，所以我會給那個多一點顏色。讓我從我們看到的與緊縮曲線相比的良好表現開始。因此，如果你看看我們 2022 年的開發井，它們在所有 4 個盆地（包括二疊紀盆地）的表現都略高於曲線預期。這種強勁的表現強化並驗證了 Ryan 剛才提到的發展計劃，這是我們專注於最大化回報和恢復，同時最小化未來干擾的重點。因此，如果我們退後一步，我們已經從過去 3 到 4 年的發展中吸取了很多學習曲線。

In fact, when you look at our accelerated learning curve, we've drilled the most horizontal wells in the Delaware and Midland Basin, more than any other company. So when you combine that data along with our significant operated by others portfolio and then the learnings in our mature development in the Eagle Ford and the Bakken, that's really helped us hone in on the best development approach of the stack.

事實上，當您查看我們的加速學習曲線時，我們在特拉華州和米德蘭盆地鑽了最多的水平井，比任何其他公司都多。因此，當您將這些數據與我們由其他人運營的重要產品組合結合起來，然後將我們在 Eagle Ford 和 Bakken 的成熟開發中學到的知識結合起來，這確實幫助我們磨練了堆棧的最佳開發方法。

So in summary, Steve, if you look at our production performance at or slightly exceeding type curve expectations, combined with the development strategy, we're very confident in our long-term outlook for these assets and we'll update you more at AM.

因此，總而言之，史蒂夫，如果您看到我們的生產性能達到或略高於類型曲線預期，結合開發戰略，我們對這些資產的長期前景非常有信心，我們將在 AM 上為您更新更多信息.

That's great. I really appreciate it. I mean if I could -- just one quick follow-up, Nick. Could you just address the 25,000 acres of swaps and coring up that you mentioned this morning, I would, I mean one of the questions, I guess, is...

那太棒了。對此，我真的非常感激。我的意思是，如果我可以——只是一個快速的跟進，尼克。你能不能解決你今天早上提到的 25,000 英畝掉期和取芯問題，我想，我的意思是其中一個問題是......

No, we didn't catch your question. Thanks.

不，我們沒有聽清你的問題。謝謝。

Sorry, it must be the phone line. The question is on the -- you have the 25,000 acres on the core up. And I'm just wondering if you could address, Nick, how much more to go is there on that side? And where are you just looking at the checkerboard of the map down there?

對不起，這一定是電話線。問題在於——你有 25,000 英畝的核心土地。我只是想知道你是否可以解決，尼克，那一邊還有多少路要走？你在哪裡看地圖的棋盤？

Yes, Steve. Maybe I'll just go back for the whole audience on what we've done in that space. We've been very focused on the acreage optimization, as you mentioned on trades and swaps. Last year, we completed 15 trades, and that gives us a total about 25,000 acres since the Concho transaction. Now a couple of points I just want to address. These core ups have doubled the average laterally of more than a year's worth of inventory, that's at our current level of drilling activity. Now the ability to drill extended laterals greater than 1 mile can reduce our cost of supply by 30% to 40%. So that's significant.

是的，史蒂夫。也許我會向全體觀眾回顧我們在該領域所做的工作。正如您在交易和掉期中提到的，我們一直非常關注種植面積優化。去年，我們完成了 15 筆交易，自 Concho 交易以來，我們總共擁有約 25,000 英畝的土地。現在我只想談幾點。這些岩心的增加使一年多的庫存平均水平翻了一番，這是我們目前的鑽井活動水平。現在，鑽探超過 1 英里的延伸橫向井的能力可以將我們的供應成本降低 30% 到 40%。所以這很重要。

Now to put that in perspective, Steve, our quality position in the Permian has an inventory with roughly 60% of our wells that are greater than 2-mile laterals, 60%. And then if you look at 1.5 miles or greater, that's an additional 20%. So that's a robust inventory that we have out there.

史蒂夫，現在正確看待這一點，我們在二疊紀的質量地位有一個庫存，我們大約 60% 的油井大於 2 英里的橫向，60%。然後如果你看 1.5 英里或更遠，那就是額外的 20%。因此，這是我們擁有的強大庫存。

Now if you will continue to, as you mentioned, the core up in 2023 through acreage and swaps there, but we've got a significant deep robust inventory with those longer laterals.

現在，如果你將繼續，正如你提到的那樣，在 2023 年通過種植面積和那裡的交換來增加核心，但我們已經擁有了一個重要的深度穩健的庫存，這些庫存更長。

Our next question comes from John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Royall。

So my first question is just kind of a broad one on the upcoming Investor Day. You guys haven't done one for several years. Anything on what we can expect from the presentation in terms of the longer-term plan? Or maybe a breakdown of certain assets or projects. So just any color on that would be great.

所以我的第一個問題只是關於即將到來的投資者日的一個廣泛問題。你們好幾年沒做過了。就長期計劃而言，我們可以從演示文稿中得到什麼？或者可能是某些資產或項目的故障。所以任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes, John, thanks. So we -- I think we'll show how we're pretty excited about where the company has gone. We've got a better plan. It's the strategic and the financial plan of the company and got better duration, better depth, and we'll show that to you what it means for the company for decades to come. I mean -- so we're pretty excited about where it's at. We'll do a deeper dive into where we're at in the Lower 48, our global portfolio as well as the LNG business that we've been developing here over the last 1.5 years. So look forward to sharing kind of our excitement around our plans, where it's headed and just the quality of what we're doing both strategically and financially.

是的，約翰，謝謝。所以我們——我想我們會展示我們對公司的發展方向感到非常興奮。我們有更好的計劃。這是公司的戰略和財務計劃，持續時間更長，深度更好，我們將向您展示這對公司未來幾十年的意義。我的意思是 - 所以我們對它的位置感到非常興奮。我們將更深入地了解我們在美國本土 48 區的位置、我們的全球投資組合以及過去 1.5 年來我們一直在這裡發展的液化天然氣業務。因此，期待分享我們對計劃的興奮，它的發展方向以及我們在戰略和財務上所做工作的質量。

Great. And then just a question on the guidance for 1Q production, a little bit below the full year guide and you guys called out the maintenance number there. But maybe just some color on would be helpful on how you expect production to phase in throughout the year? Should we expect it to be more back-end loaded or maybe more towards the middle, given the later 1Q?

偉大的。然後只是關於 1Q 生產指南的問題，比全年指南低一點，你們在那裡叫了維修號碼。但也許只是一些顏色會有助於您期望全年生產如何分階段進行？考慮到較晚的 1Q，我們是否應該期望它更多地加載後端或更多地向中間加載？

John, it's Dominic here. So yes, I think as Bill remarked, we do have above-normal seasonal maintenance in the first quarter. That's at Qatar Train 6 and 7, but also Eagle Ford (inaudible) our stabilizer facility down there. We've actually been preparing that for a bit of expansion. So that explains the Q1 sort of rate. But thereafter, our expectation is that each quarter will be around 2% to 3% year-on-year growth. So that's really our base case.

約翰，我是多米尼克。所以是的，我認為正如比爾所說，我們在第一季度確實有高於正常的季節性維護。那是在卡塔爾 6 號和 7 號火車，還有 Eagle Ford（聽不清）我們在那裡的穩定器設施。我們實際上一直在為一些擴展做準備。所以這解釋了 Q1 的利率。但此後，我們的預期是每個季度都會有 2% 到 3% 的同比增長。所以這真的是我們的基本情況。

Our next question comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Jeanine Wai。

First one, maybe following up on Neil's question on the cash return for the year, we realize that it's still early in the year, but you've already declared the ROC for the first part of the year. How are you ultimately thinking about the split of the $11 billion of total cash return between cash and buyback, and is the buyback more of a function of your mid-cycle price assumptions?

第一個，也許跟進尼爾關於今年現金回報的問題，我們意識到現在還早，但你已經宣布了今年上半年的 ROC。您最終如何考慮 110 億美元的總現金回報在現金和回購之間的分配，回購是否更多地取決於您的中期價格假設？

Yes. I think the majority of our buyback is tied back to ratably buying our shares in our mid-cycle price assumptions. So we try to ratably buy some shares as we go through the year. And then we buy some variable shares depending on where we see the market. I would say, as we're going into 2023, right now, we're thinking roughly 50%, 50% between cash and shares in terms of the absolute return back to the shareholders. So the $11 billion would be split roughly 5.5 and 5.5. That's our thinking as we start the year, but we'll watch the commodity price and where things develop as we go through the course of the year.

是的。我認為我們的大部分回購都與在我們的中期週期價格假設中按比例購買我們的股票有關。因此，我們在這一年中嘗試合理地購買一些股票。然後我們根據我們對市場的看法購買一些可變股票。我想說的是，隨著我們進入 2023 年，就回報給股東的絕對回報而言，我們現在正在考慮大約 50%、50% 的現金和股票。因此，這 110 億美元將大致分為 5.5 和 5.5。這是我們今年年初的想法，但我們會觀察大宗商品價格以及全年的發展情況。

Okay. Very helpful. I'll pencil that in. Our second question, sticking with '23, but moving to CapEx here. We noticed that there's about $500 million to $600 million of incremental inflation included in the budget versus 2022. And there's some noise with the categorization of the Port Arthur spend. But it looks like Lower 48 will comprise about 60% of total CapEx for '23. And so our question is, how much of that $500 million to $600 million of incremental inflation is in the Permian and Lower 48 versus maybe other parts of your portfolio? And what's your estimate on how inflation ended up by region in '22? And maybe any assumptions that you have in your budget for '23 inflation?

好的。很有幫助。我會把它記下來。我們的第二個問題，堅持'23，但在這裡轉向資本支出。我們注意到，與 2022 年相比，預算中包含了大約 5 億至 6 億美元的增量通貨膨脹。亞瑟港支出的分類存在一些噪音。但看起來 Lower 48 將佔 23 年總資本支出的 60% 左右。所以我們的問題是，與您投資組合的其他部分相比，二疊紀和 Lower 48 的 5 億至 6 億美元增量通貨膨脹中有多少？您對 22 年各地區的通貨膨脹情況有何估計？也許您在 23 年通貨膨脹預算中有任何假設？

Yes. Let me take a quick high-level shot. I think if you're kind of looking at exit rates from 2022 going into 2023, it's kind of low-single digits. If you're kind of looking at what's the increase annually year-over-year, it's more like mid-single digits. I think the difference we're seeing this year maybe relative to last year is we see that mid-single-digit inflation applying across the whole global portfolio and it's slightly higher in the Permian to the question that you asked.

是的。讓我快速拍一張高級照片。我想如果你看一下從 2022 年到 2023 年的退出率，它是一個低個位數。如果你想看看每年的同比增長是多少，它更像是中個位數。我認為我們今年看到的與去年相比的不同之處在於，我們看到中等個位數的通貨膨脹率適用於整個全球投資組合，而二疊紀的通貨膨脹率略高於您提出的問題。

So yes, we're in -- we're seeing some categories of spend that are key to the company actually start to plateau and maybe even roll over a little bit, one that -- one we're watching pretty closely is OCTG, the tubulars, some of the raw materials that are going into making those are starting to come down and be slight a little bit. So we're starting to see that category spend sort of roll over. We're seeing the rate of increase kind of in the onshore rig market start to lessen a little bit, which is good. We need that -- and so when we kind of wrap all those categories to spend together for the company, it kind of manifests itself in an annual year-over-year inflation in the mid-single digits.

所以，是的，我們正在——我們看到一些對公司至關重要的支出類別實際上開始趨於平穩，甚至可能有所回落，其中一個——我們正在密切關注的是 OCTG，管材，一些用於製造這些管材的原材料開始下降並且略有下降。所以我們開始看到該類別的支出有點翻滾。我們看到陸上鑽機市場的增長率開始有所下降，這很好。我們需要它——因此，當我們將所有這些類別打包在一起為公司支出時，它會以中等個位數的年度同比通貨膨脹表現出來。

Our next question comes from Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ryan Todd 和 Piper Sandler。

Maybe a follow-up on the Permian. I'm not sure if you mentioned this earlier, but can you talk a little bit about what is assumed in your current guidance, I guess, both capital and production for the year. It sounds like the guide assumes kind of flat activity levels in the Permian versus late 2022. Is that correct? And in terms of how should we think about activity levels? And how should we think about the trajectory of production in the Permian over the course of 2023?

也許是二疊紀的後續行動。我不確定你之前是否提到過這一點，但你能談談你目前的指導方針中的假設嗎？我猜，今年的資本和生產。聽起來該指南假設二疊紀與 2022 年底的活動水平持平。這是正確的嗎？就我們應該如何考慮活動水平而言？我們應該如何考慮 2023 年二疊紀的生產軌跡？

Yes, Ryan, this is Nick. Yes, let me talk -- walk you through that. So as you mentioned, we've assumed a level-loaded steady-state program for 2023 based on that second half of 2022 for rigs and frac crews. The focus for this year will really be around improving capital and operating efficiency. Now we do expect some modest growth in partner activity as the year progresses. And then we have some larger operated pads that will come online in kind of 2Q, 3Q.

是的，瑞安，這是尼克。是的，讓我談談 - 帶你完成那個。因此，正如您所提到的，我們假設 2023 年的水平加載穩態計劃基於 2022 年下半年的鑽井平台和壓裂工作人員。今年的重點將真正圍繞提高資本和運營效率。現在，我們確實預計隨著時間的推移，合作夥伴活動會出現適度增長。然後我們有一些更大的操作墊，它們將在 2Q、3Q 上線。

So our Lower 48 plan will deliver production in that mid-single digits, with the majority of that growth weighted to the Permian. Now with respect to the profile shape, it will be kind of mid- to back-end weighted in 2023. And as we talked about, Dominic mentioned this, we do have that Eagle Ford, Sugarloaf stabilizer maintenance that's going on. And actually, I'm pleased to mention that the turnaround that Dominic referred to is 5 days, and we completed that successfully in January. Now we will have a little bit of brownfield modifications on that stabilizer through mid-February as well. And then I'll mention 2 kind of month-to-month, we'll have wells, a little bit of lumpiness. But in the back end, we'll be weighted in 2023 for a production profile.

因此，我們的 Lower 48 計劃將實現中等個位數的產量，其中大部分增長集中在二疊紀。現在關於輪廓形狀，到 2023 年它將是一種中後端加權。正如我們所說，多米尼克提到了這一點，我們確實有 Eagle Ford，Sugarloaf 穩定器維護正在進行中。實際上，我很高興地提到 Dominic 提到的周轉時間是 5 天，我們在 1 月份成功完成了。現在，到 2 月中旬，我們還將對該穩定器進行一些棕地修改。然後我會提到 2 種每月，我們會有水井，有點腫塊。但在後端，我們將在 2023 年對生產概況進行加權。

Great. That's very helpful. And then -- as we think about your emerging kind of global gas strategy, how should we think about your approach to the gas portfolio on these projects? Should we expect the majority sold under long-term contracts with a percentage held for spot cells when you look to correspondingly build out your global gas trading capability similar to our European peers? And maybe as you're out marketing these volumes, are you seeing anything to comment on in terms of the environment, whether global gas tightness is helping the sales pricing out there? So any high-level views on your global gas strategy there would be great.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後 - 當我們考慮您的新興全球天然氣戰略時，我們應該如何考慮您對這些項目的天然氣組合的方法？當您希望相應地建立類似於我們歐洲同行的全球天然氣貿易能力時，我們是否應該期望大部分銷售是根據長期合同出售的，其中一部分用於現貨電池？也許當你在營銷這些數量時，你是否看到任何關於環境方面的評論，全球氣密性是否有助於那裡的銷售定價？因此，任何關於您的全球天然氣戰略的高層意見都會很棒。

Yes, sure. This is Bill. So I'll just start with -- we've got a really strong understanding and presence in the LNG market and have had for several years. We're regularly selling spot volumes into Asia of our APLNG venture. And we do think that Europe is going to be a long-term market for U.S. Gulf Coast and you will have seen where we recently secured regas capacity in Germany, which we're really happy about and excited about.

是的，當然。這是比爾。所以我先說——我們對液化天然氣市場有著非常深刻的理解和存在，並且已經有好幾年了。我們定期向 APLNG 企業的亞洲銷售現貨量。我們確實認為歐洲將成為美國墨西哥灣沿岸的一個長期市場，你會看到我們最近在德國獲得再氣化能力的地方，我們對此感到非常高興和興奮。

And so we're looking at the best options in terms of long-term placements, but these are 20-year projects off the Gulf Coast. And so we think that the long-term strength of international pricing relative to U.S. gas is going to be pretty interesting. And that driver and that strength in LNG, we think, it's going to be driven by its role in energy transition and reducing carbon emissions. So as you see us build out our LNG portfolio over the next few years, we may take some longer-term contract decisions in there. But right now, we're not really disclosing where we're at for competitive reasons in terms of how we're developing that market.

因此，我們正在尋找長期安置方面的最佳選擇，但這些是墨西哥灣沿岸 20 年的項目。因此，我們認為國際定價相對於美國天然氣的長期優勢將非常有趣。我們認為，液化天然氣的驅動力和實力將受到其在能源轉型和減少碳排放方面的作用的推動。所以當你看到我們在未來幾年建立我們的液化天然氣產品組合時，我們可能會在那裡做出一些長期合同決定。但是現在，出於競爭原因，我們並沒有真正披露我們在如何開發該市場方面所處的位置。

Our next question comes from Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Devin McDermott。

So I wanted to first follow up on some of the CapEx questions earlier. You laid out the $1.6 billion to $2 billion of spending this year on major projects, and you talked with some good detail about Port Arthur. It's not necessarily ratable across the projects. But when you put it all together, I was wondering if you could talk about how you see the magnitude of major projects been evolving or changing over the next few years outside of Port Arthur and some of the key moving pieces that we should be thinking about across the projects that could move that number higher or lower?

所以我想先跟進之前的一些資本支出問題。你列出了今年在重大項目上的 16 億至 20 億美元支出，你還談到了亞瑟港的一些細節。它不一定可以跨項目評級。但是當你把所有這些放在一起時，我想知道你是否可以談談你如何看待亞瑟港以外的未來幾年重大項目的規模正在演變或變化，以及我們應該考慮的一些關鍵的移動部分在可以使該數字更高或更低的項目中？

Yes. I think we tried to explain kind of a bit about the front-end loading of the Port Arthur project. So you ought to expect that's going to come down as you look into the 2, 3, 4 years. Some of the other moving pieces, we -- if the commodity price environment supports it, we want to see some ramp in our Lower 48 activities up to our optimized plateau across the various assets. You'll see Willow ramping up if we get an adequate project approval from the federal government. So that will come in. And then obviously, there's some inflationary forces as well as we think about where it's going. So there's a lot of moving pieces, but that's kind of how you should think of the different pieces that we're looking at as we kind of think about the longer-term nature of the capital, and we'll be prepared to talk about that at our analyst meeting coming up in April.

是的。我想我們試圖解釋一下亞瑟港項目的前端加載。所以你應該預料到，當你展望 2、3、4 年時，它會下降。其他一些移動的部分，我們 - 如果商品價格環境支持它，我們希望看到我們的 Lower 48 活動有所增加，達到我們跨各種資產的優化平台。如果我們從聯邦政府獲得足夠的項目批准，你會看到 Willow 的發展。所以這會進來。然後很明顯，有一些通貨膨脹的力量，我們也在考慮它的發展方向。所以有很多動人的部分，但這就是你應該如何看待我們正在考慮的不同部分，因為我們有點考慮資本的長期性質，我們將準備好談論在我們四月份舉行的分析師會議上。

Got it. Makes sense. Just a quick follow-up on NFE and NFS, are those fairly ratable over the next few years? Any additional color on those projects specifically?

知道了。說得通。只是對 NFE 和 NFS 的快速跟進，它們在接下來的幾年裡是否相當受歡迎？這些項目有什麼特別的顏色嗎？

Yes. So this is Bill. You saw us in the fourth quarter and make our initial catch-up payment on NFE. And then you should expect that those projects are funding through the next couple of years.

是的。所以這是比爾。您在第四季度看到了我們，並在 NFE 上進行了初始追加付款。然後你應該期望這些項目在未來幾年內得到資助。

Our next question comes from Paul Cheng with Scotia General.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scotia General 的 Paul Cheng。

Can I go back into Permian? You guys talking about earlier in your prepared remarks on the inventory for the 2-mile well. I think the industry also think that the 3-mile may actually was even better. Can you talk about that? I mean, based on where you are today, what's the inventory then on the 3 miles? And whether there's a lot of opportunity there. You also don't know whether there's an update you can provide on the (inaudible) longer-term petrol rate that you expect for Permian and that when that you will be able to get there. So that's the first question.

我可以回到二疊紀嗎？你們在之前準備好的關於 2 英里井庫存的評論中談到了這一點。我認為業界也認為 3 英里實際上可能更好。你能談談嗎？我的意思是，根據你今天所在的位置，3 英里的庫存是多少？那裡是否有很多機會。您也不知道是否可以提供有關您期望二疊紀的（聽不清）長期汽油價格的更新，以及您何時能夠到達那裡。這是第一個問題。

The second question that I have to say, I was super impressed that your Bakken production is actually flat sequentially from the third quarter given that the winter storm hit and so severely, I mean, how the 27,000 barrels per day, I mean, how much is on the Bakken and how you'd be able to get it so that you can actually get it flat?

我不得不說的第二個問題，我印象非常深刻的是，你的 Bakken 產量實際上從第三季度開始持平，因為冬季風暴來襲而且非常嚴重，我的意思是，每天 27,000 桶，我的意思是，多少在 Bakken 上，你如何才能得到它，這樣你才能真正把它弄平？

All right. Yes. This is Nick. I'll just kind of walk you back through kind of the inventory related to our longer laterals as we've done the core up. Again, over 60% is greater than 2-mile laterals, and that does include the 3 miles as well. So that's a significant part of our inventory in the Permian Basin. We've actually, this last year, in 2022, brought on, I think, more than 30 wells that are in the 3-mile category and are seeing very encouraging results. So we'll continue to execute those as we go forward. As we continue to core up and do swaps, that will give us more inventory as well for that longer lateral execution. Again, you will see probably cost of supply of about 30% to 40% reduction as we drill those longer laterals.

好的。是的。這是尼克。當我們完成核心工作時，我將帶您回顧一下與我們較長的橫向相關的庫存。同樣，超過 60% 的橫向距離大於 2 英里，這也包括 3 英里。所以這是我們在二疊紀盆地庫存的重要組成部分。事實上，去年，也就是 2022 年，我認為，我們已經開采了 30 多口 3 英里範圍內的油井，並且看到了非常令人鼓舞的結果。因此，我們將繼續執行這些操作。隨著我們繼續核心化並進行掉期，這將為我們提供更多庫存以及更長的橫向執行。同樣，當我們鑽探那些較長的支管時，您可能會看到供應成本降低約 30% 至 40%。

I'm sorry, Dominic, for the 60% you're talking about, how much of -- what percent of them is actually in the 3 miles category?

抱歉，多米尼克，對於你所說的 60%，其中有多少——其中有多少實際上屬於 3 英里類別？

Yes, Paul, I don't have that in front of me at this point in time, but let's wait until AM and I'll give you a further update on that overall 3-mile categorization.

是的，保羅，目前我面前沒有這個，但讓我們等到上午，我會給你一個關於 3 英里整體分類的進一步更新。

On your second part of that first question related to plateau. Again, we'll update the group on overall Permian plateau, Eagle Ford and Bakken at the April 12 Investor Day. Obviously, there's a number of factors that go into that. The macro, maintaining execution, efficiency, continuing to capture the learning curve and capital efficiency. Right now, with our middle -- mid-single-digit growth, we feel that's right in line with what we've communicated earlier.

關於與高原有關的第一個問題的第二部分。同樣，我們將在 4 月 12 日的投資者日更新整個二疊紀高原、伊格爾福特和巴肯的信息。顯然，其中有許多因素。宏觀上，保持執行力、效率，持續捕捉學習曲線和資本效率。現在，隨著我們中等個位數的增長，我們認為這與我們之前傳達的信息一致。

And then your second question was related to weather. Glad you brought that one up. Again, Bill, you had mentioned 27,000 barrels a day for fourth quarter 2022. Just a quick breakdown on that. That's 13,000 for Permian, 10,000 for Bakken and then last 4,000 in Eagle Ford. I think you asked kind of maybe quarter-to-quarter, Q3 to Q4, you're right, it was flat. We're at 96,000 barrels equivalent per day. And Paul, the main driver for that is what we had some really strong operated wells that carried into Q4. And then on the operated by others, we had some larger pad projects come online in Q4 that offset that weather.

然後你的第二個問題與天氣有關。很高興你提出來了。再一次，比爾，你提到了 2022 年第四季度每天 27,000 桶。只是快速細分一下。 Permian 為 13,000，Bakken 為 10,000，最後 Eagle Ford 為 4,000。我想你問的可能是季度到季度，第三季度到第四季度，你是對的，它是持平的。我們每天的產量為 96,000 桶當量。保羅，這主要的驅動力是我們有一些非常強大的運營井進入第四季度。然後在由其他人運營的情況下，我們有一些更大的墊子項目在第四季度上線，以抵消這種天氣。

Our next question comes from Bob Brackett with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bob Brackett 和 Bernstein。

A bit of an old-school question on your reserve replacement. Historically, LNG FIDs were big blocky chunks of gas reserves going into the portfolio. That's not really going to be the case for a midstream asset like Port Arthur. But I'm curious, can you go into a little more detail on the oil gas mix shift on the reserve replacement? And how to think about the cadence of LNG coming in through that?

關於您的儲備替代品的一個老派問題。從歷史上看，液化天然氣 FID 是進入投資組合的大塊天然氣儲量。對於亞瑟港這樣的中游資產來說，情況並非如此。但我很好奇，您能否更詳細地介紹一下儲量更換中的油氣混合變化？以及如何考慮通過它進入液化天然氣的節奏？

Bob, it's Dominic here. Yes. So let me talk a bit about that. I mean, we're obviously very pleased with our organic reserve replacement ratio this year, 177%. The real drivers for that, I mean, obviously, the LNG, we did have some bookings there for NFE as we commenced payments on NFE. We also saw some bookings (inaudible) LNG performance and for some project advancements in Norway. Our international portfolio is contributing. But the main area this year was actually in the Lower 48 development program. And that's particularly in the Permian and that included an increase to our PUD bookings by extending the approved area established by reliable technology, which is an SEC term. So it's consistent with SEC requirements. And so basically, we have a very extensive geoscience and reservoir engineering data set across the Permian now that allows us to support that. So -- and you'll be aware, Bob, just the rigor and the process and the controls governing the reserves booking process. So this further demonstrates the depth and quality of our Lower 48 inventory. So that's really the story this year. Going forward, we'll continue to see bookings in the Lower 48, we'll see bookings in Alaska, obviously, with pending FIDs. And then we'll continue to see some LNG bookings as well, particularly on the resource projects as we call them, NFE and NFS, you're absolutely right what you're saying about Port Arthur. So I think you'll see a mix going forward, right, as it stands now, our Lower 48 represents about 46% of our reserves and the remainder across international, but yes, we are certainly appreciating the performance of our sort of diversified portfolio around our reserve booking. So thanks for the question.

鮑勃，我是多米尼克。是的。所以讓我談談這個。我的意思是，我們顯然對今年 177% 的有機儲量替代率感到非常滿意。真正的驅動因素，我的意思是，很明顯，液化天然氣，當我們開始支付 NFE 時，我們確實有一些 NFE 預訂。我們還看到了一些預訂（聽不清）液化天然氣性能以及挪威的一些項目進展。我們的國際投資組合正在做出貢獻。但今年的主要區域實際上是 Lower 48 發展計劃。這尤其是在二疊紀，其中包括通過擴展由可靠技術建立的批准區域來增加我們的 PUD 預訂，這是美國證券交易委員會的術語。所以它符合 SEC 的要求。所以基本上，我們現在在二疊紀擁有非常廣泛的地球科學和油藏工程數據集，這使我們能夠支持這一點。所以 - 你會知道，Bob，只是管理儲備預訂流程的嚴格性和流程以及控制。因此，這進一步證明了我們 Lower 48 庫存的深度和質量。這就是今年的故事。展望未來，我們將繼續看到美國本土 48 州的預訂，我們將看到阿拉斯加的預訂，顯然，還有待定的 FID。然後我們也會繼續看到一些液化天然氣預訂，特別是在我們稱之為 NFE 和 NFS 的資源項目上，你對亞瑟港的看法是絕對正確的。所以我認為你會看到未來的組合，對，就目前而言，我們的美國本土 48 州約占我們儲備的 46%，其餘部分來自國際儲備，但是，是的，我們當然讚賞我們多元化投資組合的表現圍繞我們的預訂。所以謝謝你的問題。

Very clear. A quick follow-up on the portfolio. Great opportunities in 2020 to rebuild the portfolio, '21 again in the Permian, '22 was very much an LNG theme year. Is the star of the show for '23 Willow FID? Or how do you think about the portfolio where it stands today?

非常清楚。快速跟進投資組合。 2020 年是重建投資組合的大好機會，21 年又是二疊紀，22 年是液化天然氣主題年。是'23 Willow FID 節目的明星嗎？或者您如何看待目前的投資組合？

We're pretty pleased where the portfolio is at. I mean, Dominic did a good job of kind of going across the globe. I think we spent a lot of time over the last 5 years really coring up the portfolio, really focused on getting it as low cost of supply as we can, getting the margins as expanded as we can, leading to kind of the returns and the productivity that we're seeing today. So we're just hyper focused on making sure the efficiencies are there and the returns are there and pretty happy with where we stand today. And then as you rightly note, Bob, we're leaning in a bit on some of these mid- and longer-cycle projects because we're just very constructive. The world is going to need this all. It's going to need low greenhouse gas and emissions intensity oil. It's going to need low-cost supply oil. That's what we're all about. That's what we're doing in our portfolio. And most recently, leaning in on the LNG side because we think the world is going to need this gas as part of the transition that we're going through.

我們對投資組合所在的位置感到非常滿意。我的意思是，多米尼克在環球旅行方面做得很好。我認為在過去的 5 年裡我們花了很多時間真正核心化投資組合，真正專注於盡可能降低供應成本，盡可能擴大利潤率，從而帶來某種回報和我們今天看到的生產力。因此，我們只是非常專注於確保效率在那裡，回報在那裡，並且對我們今天的立場非常滿意。然後正如你正確地指出的那樣，鮑勃，我們有點傾向於其中一些中長期項目，因為我們非常有建設性。世界將需要這一切。它將需要低溫室氣體和排放強度的石油。它將需要低成本的石油供應。這就是我們的全部。這就是我們在投資組合中所做的。最近，傾向於液化天然氣方面，因為我們認為世界將需要這種氣體作為我們正在經歷的過渡的一部分。

Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Neal Dingmann。

My question is around just production and maybe around the Permian. I'm just trying to get a sense of -- you've got, I think, the 4% -- 1% to 4% type overall growth. So I'm just trying to get a sense of expectations for the Permian, if you would back out obviously, what's going on up in Alaska. Have you all clarified or kind of said what the expectation is at and it sounds like a second part of that, it sounds like it's going to be pretty -- that growth you expect in the Permian, I assume that would be pretty linear for the entire year, if you could comment on those 2 things.

我的問題是關於生產，也許是關於二疊紀。我只是想了解一下——我認為你有 4%——1% 到 4% 的總體增長。所以我只是想了解一下對二疊紀的期望，如果你明顯退出，阿拉斯加正在發生什麼。你們有沒有澄清或說出期望是什麼，這聽起來像是第二部分，聽起來會很漂亮——你期望二疊紀的增長，我認為這對整整一年，如果你能對這兩件事發表評論的話。

Yes, Neal, this is Nick. Again, for the Lower 48, we'll deliver production growth in that mid-single digits. And again, the majority of that growth is going to be weighted to the Permian. With respect to the profile shape, it's going to be more of mid- to back-end weighted. So we've got some operated larger pads that are going to be coming on kind of the midyear to third quarter. And then we've got a modest operated by other growth going through the year with more on the kind of the back end for Lower 48. Does that help?

是的，尼爾，這是尼克。同樣，對於美國本土 48 國，我們將實現中等個位數的產量增長。而且，大部分增長將集中在二疊紀。關於外形形狀，它將更多地偏重於中後端。所以我們有一些更大的運營墊，這些墊將在年中到第三季度出現。然後我們有一個適度的運營，由其他增長貫穿全年，更多的是針對 Lower 48 的後端。這有幫助嗎？

That's very clear. And then just one last one. You all are obviously in a fantastic position financially. You've done some really positive M&A deals in the past. I think actually in the last couple of years among the best that I've seen out there. My question that comes in, how do you view the landscape today? I mean obviously, prices are up, maybe commodity prices are up, so maybe expectations are higher, but just wondering, overall, how do you view the M&A landscape?

這很清楚。然後就是最後一個。你們顯然在經濟上處於極好的位置。你過去做過一些非常積極的併購交易。我認為實際上是過去幾年中我所見過的最好的。我的問題是，您如何看待今天的景觀？我的意思是很明顯，價格上漲了，也許商品價格上漲了，所以預期可能更高了，但只是想知道，總體而言，您如何看待併購前景？

Yes. Thanks, Neal. I mean we're in the market every day. We're trading. We're thinking about the market, we see what's going on every day. We think generally, there's more consolidation that's needed in our business. It's pretty tough at these kinds of elevated prices, but we watch it every day. I think it -- we've been pretty clear and consistent about our financial framework and how we think about M&A. That has not changed. So as we think about cost of supply, we think about assets that we can make better or can make our company better or improve our long-term plan. We know the assets that we like. And so we watch those constantly. But it's a tougher market at these kinds of prices to transact. And some of the transactions that have occurred this year, we've looked at them, we've seen them. We've watched them. They just don't feel our framework. So they don't make us a better company.

是的。謝謝，尼爾。我的意思是我們每天都在市場上。我們在交易。我們正在考慮市場，我們每天都會看到發生了什麼。總的來說，我們認為我們的業務需要更多的整合。價格上漲的情況非常艱難，但我們每天都在關注它。我認為 - 我們對我們的財務框架以及我們對併購的看法一直非常清晰和一致。那沒有改變。因此，當我們考慮供應成本時，我們會考慮我們可以做得更好或可以使我們的公司更好或改善我們的長期計劃的資產。我們知道我們喜歡的資產。所以我們經常看那些。但在這種價格下，這是一個更難交易的市場。今年發生的一些交易，我們已經看過，我們已經看到了。我們看過他們。他們只是感覺不到我們的框架。所以他們不會讓我們成為更好的公司。

Our next question comes from Paul Sankey with Sankey Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sankey Research 的 Paul Sankey。

Thanks, as always, for the great disclosure. In fact, you guys have been leaders in the industry in many ways, starting with really the first capital discipline, cash return framework. You're in position to make acquisitions at the bottom of the cycle. And now you're saying that you're leaning in is the (inaudible) sort of mega project development using an $85 oil price assumption. Is this an indication that the industry is going to have to follow you? Or is it more that these major opportunities have come up in 2023? And further to the $85 price assumption, could you just remind me what gas price assumption you're using? And what would you cut if oil prices went to, say, $60 over the course of the year?

一如既往地感謝偉大的披露。事實上，你們在很多方面都是行業的領導者，從真正的第一個資本紀律、現金回報框架開始。您可以在周期底部進行收購。現在你說你傾向於使用 85 美元的油價假設進行（聽不清）那種大型項目開發。這是否表明該行業將不得不跟隨您？還是更多的是2023年出現了這些重大機遇？除了 85 美元的價格假設之外，您能否提醒我您使用的汽油價格假設是什麼？如果油價在一年內漲到 60 美元，你會削減什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Paul. No, I think we're -- Yes, I think the -- our view is pretty constructive over the next number of years and through the decade. So the time you want to do some of these big projects sort of front end of the cycle, we probably are a bit unique given our global diversified portfolio. We have opportunities in Alaska and Norway, in the Far East, in the Middle East. So we look at those, make sure they fit our framework around cost of supply and what we want to go invest in. And as we look forward, we believe now is the time to be doing these projects, which is why you see us leaning in on the LNG side. We're constructive on the gas and why we're moving forward with our little project up in Alaska. And (inaudible) this is what the administration has asked us for, U.S. production, this low GHG emission production. This is exactly what the administration has asked us to do as an industry, and that's what we're trying to do as a company.

是的。謝謝，保羅。不，我認為我們 - 是的，我認為 - 我們的觀點在未來幾年和十年內非常有建設性。因此，當您想在周期的前端進行這些大型項目中的一些時，考慮到我們的全球多元化投資組合，我們可能有點獨特。我們在遠東和中東的阿拉斯加和挪威都有機會。因此，我們著眼於這些，確保它們符合我們圍繞供應成本的框架以及我們想要投資的內容。我們展望未來，我們相信現在是開展這些項目的時候了，這就是為什麼你看到我們傾向於在液化天然氣方面。我們對天然氣以及為什麼我們要推進我們在阿拉斯加的小項目持建設性態度。而且（聽不清）這就是政府要求我們的，美國的生產，這種低溫室氣體排放的生產。這正是政府要求我們作為一個行業要做的事情，這也是我們作為一家公司正在努力做的事情。

Now looking forward, I think we'll talk at aim about where we think mid-cycle price is and frankly, we think it's probably come up from where we've been over the last 5, 6 years. We'll show that to you at AM. And then finally, to your last question, yes, we've set a cash return target at $80 WTI, $85 Brent. And I think it's 325 Henry Hub. Those are the assumptions we made that underpin the $11 billion. The price would have to go down considerably. I mean, you said into the 60s, full year average, I think before we would talk about changing that. And we're prepared to use our cash on the balance sheet to fund these projects. That's why we have that cash. That's why we have that financial strength and that resilience. So we're happy to use the cash if we need to. So I think it's resilient across a broad range of prices in terms of what we've established as our distribution target for the year.

現在展望未來，我認為我們將有針對性地討論我們認為周期中期價格在哪裡，坦率地說，我們認為它可能來自過去 5、6 年的水平。我們將在上午向您展示。最後，對於你的最後一個問題，是的，我們將現金回報目標設定為 80 美元 WTI，85 美元布倫特原油。我認為是 325 Henry Hub。這些是我們為支撐 110 億美元所做的假設。價格將不得不大幅下降。我的意思是，你說到 60 年代，全年平均水平，我想在我們討論改變它之前。我們準備使用資產負債表上的現金來資助這些項目。這就是我們擁有現金的原因。這就是為什麼我們擁有這種財務實力和彈性。因此，如果需要，我們很樂意使用現金。因此，我認為就我們確定的今年分銷目標而言，它在廣泛的價格範圍內具有彈性。

And then following on the leadership, you were instrumental in the export ban being lifted. Can you talk a little bit more about Willow? There's obviously some -- you mentioned low GHG. Can you talk a bit about how it fits alongside what you just said about the administration asking for this in terms of its environmental footprint?

然後在領導層的帶領下，您在取消出口禁令方面發揮了重要作用。你能多談談 Willow 嗎？顯然有一些——你提到了低溫室氣體。你能談談它如何與你剛才所說的政府在環境足跡方面提出的要求相吻合嗎？

Yes, it will be some of the lowest GHG emission production in the world, less than 10 kilograms per barrel. So it's going to be something that we believe is what the world needs right now as we go through this energy transition. We need more oil and gas. We need more base load to supply the world reliable and affordable energy and coming from the United States and North America broadly, in general, is the right thing to be doing right now. And it comes from companies like ours that have over 40-year experience on the North Slope. We know how to do this. We know how to do it responsibly and all the stakeholders support it, including the native community on the North Slope, the congressional delegation, the union labor leaders who need this opportunity for employment in Alaska. So there's full alignment behind what we're trying to go do there. It's just the politics in D.C.

是的，這將是世界上溫室氣體排放量最低的產品之一，每桶不到 10 公斤。因此，我們認為，在我們經歷能源轉型時，這將是世界目前需要的東西。我們需要更多的石油和天然氣。我們需要更多的基本負荷來為世界提供可靠且負擔得起的能源，並且一般來說，來自美國和北美的能源是現在應該做的正確的事情。它來自像我們這樣在北坡擁有 40 多年經驗的公司。我們知道如何做到這一點。我們知道如何負責任地做這件事，所有利益相關者都支持它，包括北坡的土著社區、國會代表團、需要這個在阿拉斯加就業機會的工會勞工領袖。因此，我們試圖在那裡做的事情完全一致。這只是華盛頓特區的政治。

Our last question comes from Bill Janela with Credit Suisse.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Bill Janela。

I wanted to ask on the pace of CapEx as you move through this year. I'm wondering with all of the major project components that there are some quarters that might be chunkier than others? Or if there are any other timing or seasonal factors to consider? So any guidance you can give there in terms of how to think about the progression of quarterly spending for some of those bigger ticket items as well as the base business would be very helpful.

我想問一下今年以來資本支出的進展情況。我想知道所有主要項目組成部分是否有一些區域可能比其他區域更粗？或者是否還有其他時間或季節性因素需要考慮？因此，您可以就如何考慮一些較大的門票項目以及基礎業務的季度支出進展提供任何指導，這將非常有幫助。

Thanks, Bill. It's Dominic here. Yes, the way it's going to work out, we think, is pretty ratable through the year. we've got consistent activity in the Lower 48 level loaded. You're right that there is going to be a bit of lumpiness around some of the project spend. So for example, in the first quarter, we do have a modest upfront payment in Q1 on Port Arthur, assuming that's sanctioned. But if you are running a fairly ratable profile, that would be a good estimate.

謝謝，比爾。我是多米尼克。是的，我們認為，這一年的結果是相當不錯的。我們在 Lower 48 級別加載了一致的活動。您是對的，某些項目支出會有些混亂。因此，例如，在第一季度，假設受到製裁，我們在亞瑟港的第一季度確實有一筆適度的預付款。但是，如果您正在運行一個相當可評價的配置文件，那將是一個很好的估計。

Okay. Great. Thank you. Operator, I think just wrap up the call.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。接線員，我想結束通話。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。