康菲 (COP) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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（技術難度）

During the call, we'll make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Of course, actual results may differ due to the factors described in today's release and our periodic SEC filings. And finally, we'll also make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in this morning's release and on our website.

在電話會議期間，我們將根據當前的預期做出前瞻性陳述。當然，由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。最後，我們今天還將參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。可以在今天上午的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到與最接近的相應 GAAP 措施的對賬。

And with that, let me turn the call over to Ryan.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給瑞恩。

Thank you, Mark. Before we get into the results for the quarter, I'd like to touch on a couple of other items that are top of mind for us. The first is the war in Ukraine. In a world already ravaged by the pandemic, this unprovoked invasion is having tragic consequences as we all see in heartbreaking detail in the news every day. The bravery of the Ukrainian people is inspiring, and we pray for a peaceful resolution at the earliest possible moment.

謝謝你，馬克。在我們了解本季度的結果之前，我想談談我們最關心的其他幾項。首先是烏克蘭戰爭。在一個已經被大流行蹂躪的世界中，這種無端的入侵正在產生悲慘的後果，正如我們每天在新聞中看到的令人心碎的細節一樣。烏克蘭人民的勇敢令人鼓舞，我們祈禱儘早和平解決。

This deeply troubling war is also disrupting supply chains at a time of recovering global economic growth and energy demand. It is affecting every aspect of the global economy and impacting the energy security of our allies in Europe, and it's driving significant volatility in commodity prices. We are fortunate that the United States has abundant resources to ensure our own energy security. These resources also provide vital geopolitical benefits. Secure U.S. energy exports serve as a market stabilizing factor, enabling our allies to better withstand energy blackmail by hostile and unreliable resources.

在全球經濟增長和能源需求復甦之際，這場令人深感不安的戰爭也在擾亂供應鏈。它影響著全球經濟的方方面面，影響著我們在歐洲的盟友的能源安全，並推動了大宗商品價格的大幅波動。我們很幸運，美國擁有豐富的資源來確保我們自己的能源安全。這些資源還提供了重要的地緣政治利益。安全的美國能源出口是一個穩定市場的因素，使我們的盟友能夠更好地抵禦來自敵對和不可靠資源的能源訛詐。

Like the rest of industry, we've quickly restored activity levels from the lows driven by the pandemic-related energy price collapse despite lingering service and supply chain shortages, infrastructure permitting delays and lag time required for workforce and equipment redeployment. As a result, total U.S. oil and gas production is growing meaningfully despite these headwinds. And ConocoPhillips will continue to do our part as we fulfill our triple mandate of reliably and responsibly meeting energy transition demand, delivering competitive returns on and of capital and achieving our net zero ambition.

與其他行業一樣，儘管服務和供應鏈短缺持續存在、基礎設施允許延遲以及勞動力和設備重新部署所需的時間滯後，但我們已迅速從與大流行相關的能源價格暴跌驅動的低點恢復了活動水平。因此，儘管存在這些不利因素，美國石油和天然氣總產量仍在顯著增長。康菲石油公司將繼續儘自己的一份力量，履行我們可靠且負責任地滿足能源轉型需求、提供具有競爭力的資本回報以及實現淨零目標的三重使命。

Now the other topic I'd like to touch on are the leadership changes we announced a couple of days ago. I suspect you all saw the release on Monday, but for those who might have missed it, Tim will be transitioning from leading our Lower 48 business, which he's done incredibly well since we combined companies a little over a year ago, to serving in an advisory role to myself and the entire leadership team. Tim has truly been an industry visionary founding Concho almost 20 years ago, and growing it into one of the Permian's largest and best run companies before joining ConocoPhillips. He's also been instrumental in driving value realization as we've integrated the assets into the company. I'm appreciative that we'll continue to benefit from Tim's significant experience and strategic relationships in his new capacity and of course, as a member of our Board.

現在我想談的另一個話題是我們幾天前宣布的領導層變動。我懷疑你們都在周一看到了發布，但對於那些可能錯過的人，蒂姆將從領導我們的 Lower 48 業務（自從我們一年多前合併公司以來他做得非常好）過渡到在對我自己和整個領導團隊的諮詢作用。 Tim 在近 20 年前創立了 Concho，並在加入 ConocoPhillips 之前將其發展成為二疊紀最大、運營最好的公司之一，他確實是一位具有遠見卓識的行業人士。隨著我們將資產整合到公司中，他還在推動價值實現方面發揮了重要作用。我很感激我們將繼續受益於蒂姆在他的新職位上的重要經驗和戰略關係，當然，作為我們的董事會成員。

I'm also very pleased to welcome Jack Harper, who most of you know, to our leadership team as Executive Vice President of our Lower 48 business. Jack is an experienced proven leader who will help ensure that our Lower 48 business fulfills its key role in delivering on our triple mandate.

我也非常高興地歡迎大家都認識的 Jack Harper 加入我們的領導團隊，擔任 Lower 48 業務的執行副總裁。 Jack 是一位經驗豐富、久經考驗的領導者，他將幫助確保我們的 Lower 48 業務在履行我們的三重使命方面發揮關鍵作用。

Reflecting now in the quarter. Once again, we've made significant progress working on all levers across the company. We efficiently and safely delivered our capital scope globally and successfully integrated the Shell Permian assets. We also took important steps to further strengthen our balance sheet and continue to upgrade our portfolio, with the sale of our mature Indonesian business and the acquisition of an additional 10% stake in our long-life, high-quality APLNG business. We're running well and with very strong financial performance.

現在反映在本季度。再一次，我們在整個公司的所有槓桿上都取得了重大進展。我們在全球範圍內高效、安全地交付了我們的資本範圍，並成功整合了殼牌二疊紀資產。我們還採取了重要措施進一步加強我們的資產負債表並繼續升級我們的投資組合，出售我們成熟的印尼業務並收購我們長期、高質量的 APLNG 業務額外 10% 的股份。我們運行良好，財務業績非常強勁。

Now building on 2 very successful Permian transactions, we have truly transformed ConocoPhillips. We're a premier E&P company with a large low cost of supply, low-aged GHD intensity resource base, returns-focused strategy and the balance sheet strength to thrive through the price cycles of the evolving energy transition. And underscoring this last point, we also recently published our plan for our net zero energy transition, which is available on our website.

現在，在兩筆非常成功的二疊紀交易的基礎上，我們真正改變了康菲石油公司。我們是一家首屈一指的勘探與生產公司，擁有龐大的低成本供應、低老化 GHD 強度資源基礎、以回報為中心的戰略和資產負債表實力，能夠在不斷變化的能源轉型的價格週期中茁壯成長。為了強調最後一點，我們最近還發布了我們的淨零能源轉型計劃，該計劃可在我們的網站上找到。

I'm going to let Bill cover the first quarter results. But before turning the call over to him, on the topic of returns, I want to highlight the fact that for the second consecutive quarter, we've again increased our targeted 2022 shareholder distributions, this time with an incremental $2 billion or a 25% increase to be distributed through the blend of share repurchases and additional variable cash return. We continue to make significant strides in all elements of our triple mandate. And as you know, we have now a 5-plus year track record of returning well over 30% of our CFO to our shareholders. The increased $10 billion target for 2022 further demonstrates our commitment to return significant value to investors through the price cycles.

我打算讓比爾報導第一季度的業績。但在將電話轉給他之前，關於回報的話題，我想強調一個事實，即連續第二個季度，我們再次增加了 2022 年的目標股東分配，這次增加了 20 億美元或 25%通過股票回購和額外可變現金回報的混合分配增加。我們繼續在我們三重任務的所有方面取得重大進展。如您所知，我們現在有超過 30% 的首席財務官返還給股東的 5 年多記錄。 2022 年增加 100 億美元的目標進一步證明了我們致力於通過價格週期為投資者帶來巨大價值的回報。

So now let me turn the call over to Bill, and he'll cover the results for the quarter, starting with our returns on capital.

所以現在讓我把電話轉給比爾，他將介紹本季度的結果，從我們的資本回報率開始。

Picking up where Ryan left off, we generated a return on capital employed of 19% on a trailing 12-month basis. That's 21% on a cash adjusted basis. We understand and appreciate that returns on and of capital matter to our investors, and we are fully focused on delivering to our shareholders.

從 Ryan 停止的地方開始，我們在過去 12 個月的基礎上產生了 19% 的資本回報率。在現金調整的基礎上，這是 21%。我們理解並理解資本回報對我們的投資者很重要，我們完全專注於為我們的股東提供回報。

In the first quarter of 2022, we generated $3.27 per share in adjusted earnings. That's driven by strong realized prices and production of 1,747,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a record level of production since we became an independent E&P 10 years ago and is bolstered by our 2 highly accretive Permian acquisitions over the past 18 months. Lower 48 production averaged 967,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the quarter, including 640,000 from the Permian, 208,000 from Eagle Ford and 97,000 from the Bakken.

2022 年第一季度，我們的調整後收益為每股 3.27 美元。這是由強勁的實際價格和每天 1,747,000 桶石油當量的產量推動的，這是自 10 年前我們成為獨立勘探與生產公司以來的創紀錄產量水平，並得到我們在過去 18 個月中兩次高度增值的二疊紀收購的支持。本季度，48 號油田的平均產量為每天 967,000 桶油當量，其中二疊紀 640,000 桶，鷹灘 208,000 桶和巴肯河 97,000 桶。

Operations across the rest of our global portfolio also ran well, allowing us to generate $7 billion in cash from operations, excluding working capital in the quarter. We also continue to enhance our low cost of supply, low greenhouse gas intensity portfolio, closing on both the sale of our Indonesian assets and the acquisition of an additional 10% of APLNG, taking ownership there to 47.5%. Both of these transactions enhance our overall margins going forward.

我們全球其他投資組合的運營也運行良好，使我們能夠從運營中產生 70 億美元的現金，不包括本季度的營運資金。我們還繼續加強我們的低供應成本、低溫室氣體強度的投資組合，完成了我們在印度尼西亞資產的出售和額外 10% 的 APLNG 收購，將那裡的所有權增加到 47.5%。這兩項交易都提高了我們未來的整體利潤率。

Illustrating this point, we realized roughly $500 million in cash distributions from APLNG in the first quarter, and we've already received $400 million so far in the second quarter. While the full year distributions will continue to depend on prices going forward, if you assume Brent averages $100 per barrel for the year, we would expect roughly $2.3 billion of total distributions from APLNG in 2022.

說明這一點，我們在第一季度從 APLNG 獲得了大約 5 億美元的現金分配，而我們在第二季度到目前為止已經收到了 4 億美元。雖然全年的分配將繼續取決於未來的價格，但如果假設布倫特原油全年平均每桶 100 美元，我們預計 2022 年 APLNG 的總分配約為 23 億美元。

Turning back to focus on the first quarter. In addition to the $7 billion in CFO, we generated $1.4 billion in cash to the sale of our remaining 93 million shares of Synovis. And this $1.4 billion fully refunded the share repurchased here of our $2.3 billion total returns to shareholders in the quarter. We also made significant strides toward our $5 billion debt reduction target, executing a successful refinancing through which we reduced our total debt by $1.2 billion. We decreased our annual interest expense by about $100 million and extended our overall debt maturity by 3 years.

回過頭來關注第一季度。除了 70 億美元的首席財務官外，我們還為出售我們剩餘的 9300 萬股 Synovis 股票創造了 14 億美元的現金。這 14 億美元全額退還了我們在本季度向股東提供的 23 億美元總回報中回購的股份。我們還朝著 50 億美元的減債目標邁進了一大步，通過成功的再融資，我們將總債務減少了 12 億美元。我們將每年的利息支出減少了約 1 億美元，並將我們的整體債務期限延長了 3 年。

Also in April, we called our $1.3 billion note, which was due in 2026. So we'll have achieved approximately half of our $5 billion debt reduction target by the end of May. And with the progress we've made in the first 2 quarters of this year and our remaining natural maturities, we'll reduce our debt by $3.3 billion this year. We are now positioned to meet our overall $5 billion reduction target in 2025. That's 1 year earlier than our prior projections.

同樣在 4 月，我們催繳了 13 億美元的票據，該票據將於 2026 年到期。因此，到 5 月底，我們將實現 50 億美元減債目標的大約一半。隨著我們在今年前兩個季度取得的進展以及我們剩餘的自然期限，我們今年將減少 33 億美元的債務。我們現在有能力在 2025 年實現 50 億美元的總體削減目標。這比我們之前的預測提前了 1 年。

As you will have noted, we also invested roughly $1.8 billion back into the business in the first quarter of the year. While this is ratable with the $7.2 billion full year capital estimate we provided last December, we're increasing our guidance to $7.8 billion. About half of the increase is due to additional low cost of supply drilling and completion activity in some of our partner-operated areas in the Lower 48. And the rest is modestly higher inflation, as we believe such supply chain constraints will be prolonged as a result of the ongoing conflict in the Ukraine.

正如您將注意到的，我們還在今年第一季度向該業務投資了大約 18 億美元。雖然這與我們去年 12 月提供的 72 億美元的全年資本估算相一致，但我們正在將我們的指導提高到 78 億美元。大約一半的增長是由於我們在下 48 州的一些合作夥伴經營的地區的供應鑽探和完井活動的額外低成本供應。其餘的是通貨膨脹率略有上升，因為我們認為這種供應鏈限制將隨著時間的推移而延長。烏克蘭持續衝突的結果。

From a reduction standpoint, we've adjusted our full year target from an approximate 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day to roughly 1.76 million per day. That's reflecting the net impact of closed A&D activity through this point in the year as well as some expected impacts from weather and well timing.

從減少的角度來看，我們已將全年目標從每天約 180 萬桶石油當量調整為每天約 176 萬桶。這反映了今年此時已關閉的 A&D 活動的淨影響，以及天氣和油井時機的一些預期影響。

So we've had a strong quarter to open the year. We've returned $2.3 billion to our shareholders and ended the quarter with $7.5 billion of cash and short-term investments. We further enhanced our low-cost supply portfolio, and we strengthened our balance sheet. And of course, our operations around the globe are well positioned to deliver on our commitments through the rest of this year and through the energy transition that's ahead of us.

所以我們有一個強勁的季度來打開今年。我們已向股東返還 23 億美元，並在本季度末以 75 億美元的現金和短期投資。我們進一步加強了我們的低成本供應組合，並加強了我們的資產負債表。當然，我們在全球的業務已經做好充分準備，可以在今年餘下的時間和我們面前的能源轉型中兌現我們的承諾。

With that, let's go to Q&A.

有了這個，讓我們去問答吧。

(Operator Instructions) We have a question from Jeanine Wai from Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們有一個來自巴克萊銀行的 Jeanine Wai 的問題。

Our first question, maybe to you is, we know you're committed to returning at least 30% of cash flow every year, year in, year out. Can you talk about how you decided on the new $10 billion level for the total return this year? I guess just assuming strip prices that equals to 35% of at least our forecasted cash flow and that's below the 2021 level of 38% and it's below the 5-year average prior to that. We know cash balances look very, very strong, and they're growing throughout the year. and that will probably be supplemented by some divestiture proceeds as well.

我們的第一個問題，也許對您來說是，我們知道您承諾每年、年復一年地返還至少 30% 的現金流。你能談談你是如何決定今年總回報新的 100 億美元水平的嗎？我想只是假設剝離價格至少等於我們預測現金流的 35%，低於 2021 年的 38% 水平，低於之前的 5 年平均水平。我們知道現金餘額看起來非常非常強勁，而且全年都在增長。這可能還會得到一些剝離收益的補充。

Yes. Thanks, Jeanine. No, we look at this quarterly review with the Board quarterly. We take an informed view of what we think the macro and the outlook for commodity prices is going to be for the rest of the year. I'd say we're -- we moved to $10 billion because we certainly felt like commodity price outlook is going to be probably above $90 a barrel and depending on where things end for the year and that supported going from $8 billion to $10 billion. And again, that's anchored in our commitment to return at least 30% of our cash flow back to our shareholders.

是的。謝謝，珍妮。不，我們每季度與董事會一起查看此季度審查。我們對我們認為宏觀和商品價格前景在今年餘下時間的看法有充分的了解。我會說我們是——我們搬到了 100 億美元，因為我們當然覺得大宗商品價格前景可能會超過每桶 90 美元，這取決於今年年底的情況，這支持從 80 億美元到 100 億美元.同樣，這基於我們將至少 30% 的現金流返還給股東的承諾。

And as you noted correctly, over the last 4 to 5 years, we've delivered even more of that and prepared to do that, should the market support that as we go forward.

正如您正確指出的那樣，在過去的 4 到 5 年中，如果市場支持我們前進，我們已經提供了更多並準備這樣做。

The other I can say is you can see that cash is rebuilding on the balance sheet a little bit as a result of the check we wrote at the end of the year. We have a desire, we want to put some more cash on the balance sheet to do that. So at the same time, we want to keep funding our stable capital program. So as we looked at it, we certainly thought we could afford moving to $10 billion. And that's supported by even if prices were to fall below $90 for whatever reason or if they continue to stay strong, investors should expect, calculate our cash flow, and you should expect to get a minimum of 30% of that back as we go through the year. That's been our commitment for many, many years now, and we're just living up to that commitment via these strong prices we see in the market.

我可以說的另一個問題是，由於我們在年底開出的支票，您可以看到資產負債表上的現金正在重建。我們有一個願望，我們想在資產負債表上投入更多現金來做到這一點。因此，與此同時，我們希望繼續為我們的穩定資本計劃提供資金。所以當我們看到它時，我們當然認為我們可以負擔得起 100 億美元。即使價格因任何原因跌至 90 美元以下，或者如果它們繼續保持強勁，投資者也應該期待，計算我們的現金流量，並且您應該期望在我們經歷的過程中至少獲得 30% 的回報。那一年。這是我們多年來的承諾，我們只是通過我們在市場上看到的這些強勁價格來履行這一承諾。

Okay. Great. Our follow-up question is maybe moving to natural gas. So Conoco, you're in a unique position among your E&P peers in that you've got a lot of scale and also the location of your resource base, especially what you have in the Permian with your really strong marketing and takeaway position there.

好的。偉大的。我們的後續問題可能是轉向天然氣。所以康菲，你在你的勘探與生產同行中處於一個獨特的位置，因為你有很大的規模和你的資源基礎的位置，特別是你在二疊紀擁有的東西，你在那裡擁有非常強大的營銷和外賣地位。

So maybe can you discuss how your view of Conoco's role in both the U.S. natural gas market and on the global scale? How that's really changed over the past 6 months or so? And perhaps any color you might have on your opportunity set as it relates to that would be really interesting.

那麼，您能否談談您對康菲在美國天然氣市場和全球範圍內的作用的看法？在過去 6 個月左右的時間裡，情況發生了怎樣的真正變化？也許您在機會集中可能擁有的任何顏色都會非常有趣。

Yes. Thanks, Jeanine. I guess, long term, today, we're about 30% of our portfolio is natural gas. If you look at our global position, a lot of that here domestically in the U.S. and then globally with our LNG exposure. We're pretty big fans of LNG. We think the Asian market and the European market, obviously, as a result of this invasion of Ukraine, has bolstered sort of the international gas side of it, which is why you see us doing things like competing for another train in Qatar and why we preempted on our APLNG interest in Australia. So we understand LNG and we'd like to get into that full value chain of that LNG.

是的。謝謝，珍妮。我想，從長遠來看，今天，我們的投資組合中約有 30% 是天然氣。如果你看看我們的全球地位，其中很多是在美國國內，然後是全球與我們的液化天然氣業務。我們是 LNG 的忠實粉絲。我們認為亞洲市場和歐洲市場，顯然，由於這次入侵烏克蘭，增強了它的國際天然氣方面，這就是為什麼你看到我們在卡塔爾競爭另一列火車之類的事情，以及為什麼我們搶占我們在澳大利亞的 APLNG 權益。所以我們了解液化天然氣，我們希望進入液化天然氣的完整價值鏈。

Here domestically in the U.S., we have a large gas position as well. And the beauty of our cost of supply model is it's a bit indifferent to gas and oil, but we are asking ourselves, has there been a disconnect on the gas side and what do we -- what should we be interested in. And certainly, LNG from the U.S. to Europe or other places is something of interest as long as we can be in that full value chain. We're not necessarily interested in just being in the liquefaction tolling business, that if we get exposed to that full value chain, that's something that we would be interested in looking at, given the nature of the gas business that's out there today.

在美國國內，我們也有很大的天然氣頭寸。我們的供應成本模型的美妙之處在於它對天然氣和石油有點漠不關心，但我們在問自己，天然氣方面是否存在脫節以及我們應該對什麼感興趣。當然，只要我們能夠在整個價值鏈中，從美國到歐洲或其他地方的液化天然氣是令人感興趣的。我們不一定只對液化收費業務感興趣，如果我們接觸到完整的價值鏈，考慮到當今天然氣業務的性質，這就是我們感興趣的事情。

Our next question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Neil Mehta。

The first question is around the capital guidance moving from $7.2 billion to $7.7 billion. I think this was well telegraphed and certainly, we're in an inflationary environment. But would love your perspective on the components of some of those moving pieces. And as we get an early thought into 2023 and normalized spending levels, how much of this does carry forward?

第一個問題是資本指引從 72 億美元增至 77 億美元。我認為這是很好的電報，當然，我們正處於通貨膨脹的環境中。但是會喜歡你對其中一些移動部件的組件的看法。隨著我們對 2023 年和正常化支出水平的早期思考，這其中有多少可以發揚光大？

Yes, Neil, I think what Bill tried to describe in the call transcript a little bit was we've upped our capital from $7.2 billion to $7.8 billion. And roughly half of that is extra activity that's ongoing across our Lower 48 by other operators. And these are good opportunities that are low-cost supply, very competitive in the portfolio, and we certainly don't want to be drilled out of any opportunities. So we are funding those kinds of opportunities as we go along.

是的，尼爾，我認為比爾試圖在通話記錄中描述的是我們已將資本從 72 億美元增加到 78 億美元。其中大約一半是其他運營商在我們的 Lower 48 進行的額外活動。這些都是低成本供應的好機會，在投資組合中非常有競爭力，我們當然不希望失去任何機會。因此，我們正在為這些機會提供資金。

The other half is inflationary driven. And I would take you back to -- we set our budget at the end of last year in December. We talked about it in our fourth quarter call, where our view of the world at the time was coming out of the pandemic, we thought we were seeing some elevated inflation rates, primarily in the Permian. But the rest of the portfolio, we didn't see as much impact. So we were thinking in the order of mid-single digit kind of inflation rates across the whole global portfolio.

另一半是通脹驅動的。我會帶你回到 - 我們在去年 12 月制定預算。我們在第四季度的電話會議中談到了這一點，當時我們對世界的看法正在擺脫大流行，我們認為我們看到通貨膨脹率有所上升，主要是在二疊紀。但投資組合的其餘部分，我們沒有看到太大的影響。所以我們在考慮整個全球投資組合中的中個位數的通脹率。

And currently, since the Ukrainian -- and we also thought at the time that, that would abate itself in the last half of the year, as supply chains got renormalized coming out of the COVID pandemic. And certainly, after the Ukrainian invasion, we're seeing now inflationary forces across the entire global portfolio, with certain hotspots clearly still in the Permian and on certain categories of spend like labor and rigs, steel, pipes, chemicals, and some of the key categories of spend that our industry relies upon.

目前，自烏克蘭以來——我們當時也認為，隨著供應鏈從 COVID 大流行中恢復正常，這種情況將在今年下半年自行減弱。當然，在烏克蘭入侵之後，我們現在在整個全球投資組合中看到了通貨膨脹力量，某些熱點顯然仍然在二疊紀以及某些類別的支出，如勞動力和鑽機、鋼鐵、管道、化學品和一些我們行業所依賴的關鍵支出類別。

So -- and I guess whether it mitigates as we go into 2023, is really a question of when does this -- all this turmoil that's going on around the world start to renormalize and get back a little bit. And at this 10 seconds, it's hard to say that that's going to renormalize anytime soon. So I think it's here with us for a while. I don't think it's transitory, and we're going to have to deal with it.

所以——我猜它是否會隨著我們進入 2023 年而有所緩解，這真的是一個何時會發生的問題——世界各地正在發生的所有這些動蕩開始重新正常化並恢復一點點。在這 10 秒內，很難說這會很快恢復正常。所以我認為它在我們這裡有一段時間了。我不認為它是暫時的，我們將不得不處理它。

The last thing I would say is we could have chose to cut scope. We could have cut our operated scope in order to try to manage to a number. And given the current macroenvironment, that didn't make sense to us. So that's why we have raised our capital guidance for the year to $7.8 billion.

我要說的最後一件事是我們可以選擇縮小範圍。我們本可以削減我們的經營範圍，以嘗試管理到一個數字。鑑於當前的宏觀環境，這對我們來說沒有意義。這就是為什麼我們將今年的資本指導提高到 78 億美元。

Makes a lot of sense, Ryan. And that's the follow-up, it's on Russia and the Ukraine war. How does this structurally change the way that you think about the company and the oil and gas industry? And there are a couple of components to that question. Does it make it more likely that the market is going to be more accepting of sanctioning of long lead time projects, whether in Alaska or elsewhere? Does this change -- does it change where you ultimately want to invest?

很有道理，瑞恩。這就是後續，是關於俄羅斯和烏克蘭戰爭的。這如何從結構上改變您對公司和石油和天然氣行業的看法？這個問題有幾個組成部分。無論是在阿拉斯加還是在其他地方，這是否會使市場更容易接受對長交貨期項目的製裁？這會改變嗎——它會改變你最終想要投資的地方嗎？

And then can you talk real time about what you're seeing in terms of Russia volumes as you guys explore -- follow the oil macro really closely? And how you see that playing out in the back half of the year, recognizing you don't have frontline operations, but you follow the situation very closely?

然後，你們能否實時談論你們在探索俄羅斯時所看到的情況——真正密切關注石油宏觀？你如何看待下半年的情況，認識到你沒有前線行動，但你密切關注情況？

Yes. I think we all are, Neil, trying to figure it all out. I think we've seen sort of an immediate 1 million barrels a day of Russian crude off the market. Our expectation at this juncture is we're expecting probably 2 million to 3 million barrels a day of Russian crude with all the conversations going on in Europe right now to stop both products and oil imports into Europe. We're expecting that 2 million to 3 million barrels a day being taken off the market. And that's going to be tough for the supply to ratchet up.

是的。我想我們都在，尼爾，試圖弄清楚這一切。我認為我們已經看到市場上每天有 100 萬桶的俄羅斯原油脫銷。我們目前的預期是，我們預計每天可能有 200 萬至 300 萬桶俄羅斯原油，目前歐洲正在進行所有對話，以阻止產品和石油進口到歐洲。我們預計每天將有 200 萬至 300 萬桶石油從市場上撤出。這將很難讓供應量增加。

So we think about that, that's happening on the supply side. While on the demand side, there's a little bit of uncertainty with what's going on in China and another COVID. Our view of the demand side is we'll probably average close to 100 million barrels a day this year, which is kind of that pre-pandemic demand level, but we see growth in demand coming. Now that could be -- that could get slowed if another wave of COVID impacts the whole world. We don't see that as part of our base case. So we see demand continuing to grow over the next couple of years.

所以我們考慮到這一點，這發生在供應方面。在需求方面，中國和另一個 COVID 的情況存在一些不確定性。我們對需求方面的看法是，今年我們可能平均每天接近 1 億桶，這有點像大流行前的需求水平，但我們看到需求將出現增長。現在這可能是——如果另一波 COVID 影響整個世界，這種情況可能會放緩。我們不認為這是我們基本案例的一部分。因此，我們看到未來幾年需求將繼續增長。

And it will be tough if we take 2 million to 3 million barrels a day of additional Russian supply off the market, it will be tough for supply to keep up in the short and medium term. So it does have an impact as we think about the need for medium- and longer-cycle projects, the need for a call on more U.S. growth, which I think is coming this year. We think probably 1 million barrels a day and something similar next year. And I think it does kind of change the view angle on medium- and longer-cycle projects long term because of the underinvestment in the industry, with the demand growth continuing and supply being challenged to keep up with that.

如果我們每天從市場上減少 200 萬至 300 萬桶俄羅斯供應，這將是艱難的，短期和中期供應將難以跟上。因此，當我們考慮對中長周期項目的需求，以及呼籲更多美國增長的需求時，它確實會產生影響，我認為這將在今年到來。我們認為每天可能有 100 萬桶，明年可能會有類似的情況。而且我認為這確實改變了對中長期項目的看法，因為該行業投資不足，需求持續增長，供應面臨挑戰以跟上這一趨勢。

And then what that means back for the company is we're spending a lot of time rethinking a longer term or medium and longer-term macro, what the energy transition has in store and how quickly that might start to abate demand. And I think the immediate manifestation is what is your view of mid-cycle pricing over the short, medium and longer term right now.

然後這對公司來說意味著我們正在花費大量時間重新考慮長期或中期和長期宏觀，能源轉型的儲備以及可能以多快的速度開始減少需求。我認為直接的表現是你對短期、中期和長期的中期定價的看法。

And while I don't think that impacts our capital allocation scheme and our cost of supply methodology and how we think about allocating capital, it does maybe at the broader level when you think about how much you have available for distributions and then what channels should you be distributing that capital to. And we have a three-tiered system, as you're aware of, our ordinary -- we'd like to ratably buy shares through the cycles. And then we introduced our third tier, the cash return VROC to supplement that in these times when prices are well in excess of what we think a mid-cycle might be.

雖然我認為這不會影響我們的資本分配計劃和我們的供應成本方法以及我們如何看待資本分配，但當您考慮您有多少可用於分配以及應該使用哪些渠道時，它可能會在更廣泛的層面上產生影響您將把資金分配給。正如你所知道的，我們有一個三層系統，我們的普通 - 我們希望通過週期按比例購買股票。然後我們引入了我們的第三層，即現金回報 VROC，以在價格遠遠超過我們認為的周期中期可能的情況下補充這一點。

Our next question comes from Phil Gresh from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Gresh。

My first question is just on the Permian. In the first quarter, the quarter-over-quarter increase in production looked to have been below the amount of the acquired volumes from Shell. And I recognize there's quarter-to-quarter variability, but I was just wondering if you could talk about some of those moving pieces, but also more importantly, just how you're thinking about that cadence of activity for the rest of the year, given what you're talking about around OBO activity and other factors?

我的第一個問題是關於二疊紀的。在第一季度，產量的環比增長似乎低於從殼牌收購的數量。而且我承認存在季度間的變化，但我只是想知道您是否可以談論其中一些動人的部分，但更重要的是，您如何考慮今年剩餘時間的活動節奏，鑑於您在談論 OBO 活動和其他因素？

Yes, Phil, this is Tim. I'll take that one. we've been really pleased -- let me first say, I'm really pleased with the way the team has integrated the Shell assets into our overall company and activity. They've done a great job. It's been a safe combination. And we have just now begun bringing wells online with our vendors and our style of completion and things like that.

是的，菲爾，這是蒂姆。我會拿那個。我們非常高興——首先讓我說，我對團隊將殼牌資產整合到我們整個公司和活動中的方式感到非常高興。他們做得很好。這是一個安全的組合。我們剛剛開始與我們的供應商和我們的完井方式以及類似的東西一起將油井上線。

So if you look at the pace of activity in the Lower 48, we were going to bring on 500 completed wells throughout the year. I think we brought on 90 in the first quarter. And so it's always been back-end loaded and building on a ramp of -- we closed the quarter with 22 drilling rigs in the Lower 48 and 8 frac spreads. And we planned -- when we rolled out our 10-year plan and guidance, we were going to build that over the next 10 years. And we're still on track to deliver all that type of activity.

因此，如果您查看下 48 區的活動速度，我們將全年完成 500 口完井。我認為我們在第一季度帶來了 90 人。因此，它總是在後端加載並建立在斜坡上 - 我們在本季度結束時在 Lower 48 和 8 個壓裂擴展中使用了 22 台鑽機。我們計劃 - 當我們推出我們的 10 年計劃和指導時，我們將在未來 10 年內建立它。我們仍在按計劃開展所有此類活動。

And so that's the plan we're on. That's what Ryan described as not cutting our capital back, but trying to run a steady ship and get the most efficiency out of it. So if you look at the ramp in activity throughout the year, that's true across our asset base, especially true in the Permian, 500 completed wells brought on throughout the entire year, but 90 in the first quarter. So it's going to build and be back-end loaded.

這就是我們的計劃。這就是瑞恩所說的，不是削減我們的資本，而是試圖經營一艘穩定的船並從中獲得最大的效率。因此，如果您查看全年活動的增加，整個資產基礎都是如此，特別是在二疊紀，全年有 500 口完井井，但第一季度有 90 口。所以它將被構建並被後端加載。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. Second question, I think, would be for Bill. Clearly, significant reductions in net debt in the first quarter. You talked about the pay down of the gross debt and the targets you have there. I'm curious how you think about the right levels of net debt or cash that you're holding because I think you also have, what, $2 billion to $3 billion of asset sales still coming here. So it just seems like you -- even with the $10 billion return of capital, there's a lot of cash building up. So any additional color there?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。我認為第二個問題是給比爾的。顯然，第一季度淨債務大幅減少。你談到了償還總債務和你在那裡的目標。我很好奇你如何看待你持有的正確水平的淨債務或現金，因為我認為你還有，什麼，還有 20 億至 30 億美元的資產出售仍在進行中。所以看起來就像你——即使有 100 億美元的資本回報，也有大量的現金積累。那麼那裡有什麼額外的顏色嗎？

Yes. Sure, Phil. So I think that you can see it manifesting itself in the rebuild of our balance sheet with our cash growing to $7.5 billion. I think we're pretty happy right now with our pace in terms of debt reduction and how the program is set up. We've got our glide path set up for the next 5 years. So I think you can look at just the natural maturities as we go through time. And I think we've been pretty opportunistic in the market to set that up and are quite happy with where that's at.

是的。當然，菲爾。所以我認為你可以看到它在我們資產負債表的重建中體現出來，我們的現金增長到 75 億美元。我認為我們現在對減少債務的步伐以及該計劃的設置方式感到非常滿意。我們已經為未來 5 年建立了滑翔路線。所以我認為隨著時間的推移，你可以只看自然成熟度。而且我認為我們在市場上非常有機會設置它並且對它的位置非常滿意。

But I think as you rightly noted, that we'll be continuing to build up cash on the balance sheet. We're looking forward to some asset dispositions here later part of this year, and that's going to be going to generating cash.

但我認為正如你正確指出的那樣，我們將繼續在資產負債表上增加現金。我們期待今年晚些時候在這裡進行一些資產處置，這將產生現金。

Our next question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

May I first say, Tim, it sounds like we're going to hear a little less from you in the future. And whatever you do next, I just want to say good luck, it's been great getting to know you over the last 10 years.

我可以先說，蒂姆，聽起來我們將來聽到你的消息會少一點。無論你接下來做什麼，我只想說祝你好運，在過去的 10 年裡認識你真是太好了。

So with that, I have 2 questions, if I may. My first one is probably for Bill. And I just wonder if you could give us an update, Bill, with all the changes, given the Shell acquisition and obviously Concho, what is your current deferred tax position in the U.S.? When do you expect to see full cash taxes there?

因此，如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。我的第一個可能是給比爾的。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們提供最新信息，比爾，考慮到殼牌的收購以及顯然是康喬的所有變化，您目前在美國的遞延稅項是什麼？您預計什麼時候可以看到全額現金稅？

And my second question, if I may, is a big picture question for Ryan. Ryan, there's been 2 things came out, I guess, climate-related recently. One is the proposal from the SEC on climate disclosure and the second is the API's suggestion of a carbon tax. I'm just wondering if you could offer Conoco's perspective on those issues, please.

我的第二個問題，如果可以的話，對 Ryan 來說是個大問題。 Ryan，我猜最近有兩件事與氣候有關。一是美國證券交易委員會關於氣候披露的建議，二是 API 提出的碳稅建議。我只是想知道您能否提供康菲公司對這些問題的看法。

Great. I'll let Bill talk about the cash tax, and then I can address the last part. But I would say, Tim is not leaving us, Doug. We look forward to his continued involvement in all the key decisions in the company. So -- but let me turn it back to Bill first.

偉大的。我讓比爾談談現金稅，然後我可以談談最後一部分。但我想說，蒂姆不會離開我們，道格。我們期待他繼續參與公司的所有關鍵決策。所以——但讓我先把它轉回比爾。

Yes. Sure, Doug. Assuming that current pricing continues, we would expect to be moving into a U.S. tax paying position this year with payments beginning quarterly starting this quarter, in the second quarter. Of course, the amounts and timing are going to vary depending on pricing and other market conditions, but we do expect to return to a cash tax paying position this year and starting to make estimated payments in this quarter.

是的。當然，道格。假設目前的定價繼續下去，我們預計今年將進入美國納稅地位，從本季度開始，即第二季度開始每季度付款。當然，金額和時間將根據定價和其他市場條件而有所不同，但我們確實預計今年將恢復現金納稅狀態，並在本季度開始進行預估付款。

And with respect to your last part, Doug, certainly, we're all kind of reviewing in quite a bit of detail what the current climate suggestions that have come out of the SEC in the rule-making process. We'll be commenting on that as part of industry as well. They're a bit problematic. I mean, we said all along, we're supportive of doing everything a company can do on Scope 1 and Scope 2 reductions as a company. And we came out with our ambition to be Paris aligned and net zero by 2050 with respect to the emissions that we produce as a company. And all companies ought to have a Paris-aligned climate risk strategy in order to address that to deal with the emissions they create.

關於你的最後一部分，Doug，當然，我們都在相當詳細地審查美國證券交易委員會在規則制定過程中提出的當前氣候建議。作為行業的一部分，我們也會對此發表評論。他們有點問題。我的意思是，我們一直說，我們支持公司在減少範圍 1 和範圍 2 方面作為一家公司可以做的一切事情。我們提出了我們的雄心壯志，即到 2050 年，我們作為一家公司產生的排放量與巴黎保持一致並實現淨零排放。所有公司都應該有一個與巴黎一致的氣候風險戰略，以解決這個問題，以處理他們產生的排放。

I guess the problematic piece has always been the Scope 3 because of the double counting, because of who's responsible for that, and should you hold a company like ConocoPhillips responsible for a consumer's decision to buy a pickup truck versus a Toyota Prius. And I think those are things in the Scope 3 side of things that we think are problematic. If you report them, they change. They're subject to double counting. And they have a lot of problems associated with how you might actually report against those certainly in an SEC sort of document that has to be included in your Qs or your Ks.

我想有問題的部分一直是范圍 3，因為重複計算，因為誰對此負責，並且你應該讓像康菲石油這樣的公司對消費者購買皮卡車而不是豐田普銳斯的決定負責。我認為這些是我們認為有問題的範圍 3 方面的事情。如果你報告他們，他們就會改變。他們會被重複計算。他們有很多問題與你如何實際報告那些肯定在必須包含在你的 Qs 或你的 Ks 中的 SEC 類型的文件相關的問題。

It's, we think, quite problematic, which is why for quite a while as a company, we've been supportive of if you want to impact the demand side of the equation, you need to do something like a carbon tax. So we've been a part of API and a part of that decision process within our industry association to say the best way to deal with this on the demand side is to have a heavy carbon tax. So we were a founding member of the Climate Leadership Council with the dividend back to offset the regressive nature of attacks. But -- so consumers can make choices and decisions around the kinds of services and goods that they supply and understand what the carbon impact of that might be.

我們認為，這很成問題，這就是為什麼作為一家公司很長一段時間以來，我們一直支持如果你想影響等式的需求方面，你需要做一些像碳稅這樣的事情。因此，我們一直是 API 的一部分，也是我們行業協會內決策過程的一部分，說在需求方面解決這個問題的最佳方法是徵收高額碳稅。因此，我們是氣候領導委員會的創始成員，並獲得了回報以抵消攻擊的倒退性質。但是——這樣消費者就可以圍繞他們提供的服務和商品的種類做出選擇和決定，並了解這可能產生的碳影響。

We understand that that's a political hill to climb, and it's tough. But it makes more sense to us than trying to regulate your way to a solution that let the markets work and price carbon into the market, which is why we've been supportive of that as a better way to deal with the energy transition.

我們知道這是一座需要攀登的政治山丘，而且非常艱難。但對我們來說，這比試圖規範自己的解決方案更有意義，讓市場運作並將碳定價進入市場，這就是為什麼我們一直支持將其作為應對能源轉型的更好方式。

You've been leaders on this topic, Ryan, so I appreciate the answer.

Ryan，你一直是這個話題的領導者，所以我很欣賞這個答案。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

The next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotia Howard Weil.

下一個問題來自 Scotia Howard Weil 的 Paul Cheng。

Two questions. I think it's actually really short. First one, I want to go back into the cash tax. Bill, from an accounting standpoint, do you estimate the full year cash tax rate and then apply throughout the year in each quarter until the full year estimate has been changed over each quarter that's being estimated? That's the first question.

兩個問題。我認為它實際上很短。第一個，我想回到現金稅。比爾，從會計的角度來看，您是否估計全年現金稅率，然後在每個季度應用全年，直到全年估計在每個季度發生變化？這是第一個問題。

The second question, I think, is for Tim. Also real quick, what is the first quarter weather impact on your production by region or by the different play? And also that what's the second quarter weather impact in Bakken that we see so far?

我認為第二個問題是針對蒂姆的。也很快，第一季度天氣對您按地區或不同戲劇的生產有何影響？到目前為止，我們看到的巴肯第二季度天氣影響是什麼？

Yes, sure, Paul. So for U.S. cash tax paying position, we estimate our annual taxes on a yearly basis and then we pay quarterly on estimated taxes. And as I indicated, we expect to start making those quarterly payments in the second quarter of this year.

是的，當然，保羅。因此，對於美國現金納稅的情況，我們每年估算我們的年度稅款，然後我們按季度支付估算的稅款。正如我所指出的，我們預計將在今年第二季度開始支付這些季度付款。

Yes, Paul, on the weather question, we had weather impact in all our major basins in the first quarter. It was -- I'm really proud of how the team responded to that. We got things back on fairly quickly. I would say the weather impact, while it affected almost all of our production, it was rather nominal, and we were able to overcome that.

是的，保羅，關於天氣問題，我們在第一季度對所有主要流域都產生了天氣影響。那是——我為團隊對此的反應感到非常自豪。我們很快就恢復了。我想說的是天氣影響，雖然它影響了我們幾乎所有的生產，但它是相當名義上的，我們能夠克服它。

As to the second part of your question about up in the Bakken. I think everybody is aware that is probably the most severe winter in recorded history up in North Dakota, and we're still assessing the amount of time it's going to take to bring that back up to full production. So I think the assessment is still going on there.

至於你關於在 Bakken 上的問題的第二部分。我想每個人都知道這可能是北達科他州有記錄以來最嚴寒的冬天，我們仍在評估恢復全面生產所需的時間。所以我認為評估仍在進行中。

Paul, this is Nick, too. I'll just add on to what Tim was saying related to turnaround impacts for Q2 and Q3. So Q2, we've got a fairly large turnaround activity, both in Norway nonoperated and operated as well as Surmont. So that will average about 35,000 barrels a day for Q2. And then we have less activity in Q3, and that's focused on Alaska, Train 2, APLNG, and then Montney and Canada and that will be 15,000 for Q3. So 35,000, Q2; 15,000 for Q3.

保羅，這也是尼克。我將補充蒂姆所說的與第二季度和第三季度的周轉影響有關的內容。所以第二季度，我們在挪威非運營和運營以及蘇爾蒙特都有相當大的周轉活動。因此，第二季度平均每天約 35,000 桶。然後我們在第三季度的活動較少，主要集中在阿拉斯加、Train 2、APLNG，然後是蒙特尼和加拿大，第三季度將是 15,000。所以 35,000，第二季度；第三季度為 15,000。

Our next question comes from John Freeman from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 John Freeman。

First question, Ryan, when you were talking about just given everything that's happened in the market, how you have to constantly kind of be evaluating the sort of a 10-year sort of macro and energy transition, demand impact, your view of mid-cycle pricing. And then one of the things that you mentioned that I was hoping you maybe expand a little bit on, as you said, maybe it would possibly change the view of how you think about kind of short cycle versus long cycle production?

第一個問題，瑞安，當你剛剛談到市場上發生的一切時，你必須如何不斷地評估那種為期 10 年的宏觀和能源轉型、需求影響、你對中期的看法週期定價。然後你提到的一件事我希望你可以擴展一點，正如你所說，也許它可能會改變你對短週期與長周期生產的看法？

Yes, John, I'm just trying to make the point that I think the transition is not going to be a cliff transition. It's going to be a drawn out one and the pace of that -- the slope of that curve is pretty unknown. So the way you react to that is have the lowest cost of supply barrels that you can supply whatever that transition demand is going to look like and make sure that they're giving an adequate and competitive return. And I think we're well set up to go do that.

是的，約翰，我只是想表明我認為過渡不會是懸崖過渡。這將是一個拉長的曲線，它的速度——曲線的斜率是非常未知的。因此，您對此的反應是擁有最低成本的供應桶，您可以供應任何過渡需求的樣子，並確保它們提供足夠和有競爭力的回報。我認為我們已經做好了這樣做的準備。

And the point I was making is that the -- in all these scenarios, even some of the IEA scenarios that they look at and we monitor 4 or 5 different scenarios internally to the company, most of those suggest that there's going to be a need for oil and gas long past 2050. So -- but we have to supply that sustainably. We have to supply that with a low GHG intensity going to net zero by 2050 but we also have to supply low cost of barrels. So when you look at that, it's going to be around a long time. So sure, medium- and longer-cycle projects are going to be needed in this industry. We just have to assure ourselves that they're competitive on a cost of supply basis and then they have a competitive GHG intensity as well.

我要表達的觀點是——在所有這些情景中，甚至是他們研究的一些 IEA 情景，我們在公司內部監控 4 或 5 種不同情景，其中大多數表明需要對於石油和天然氣來說，早在 2050 年之前。所以——但我們必須以可持續的方式供應。我們必須以低溫室氣體強度供應，到 2050 年達到淨零，但我們還必須供應低成本的桶。所以當你看到它時，它會持續很長時間。可以肯定的是，這個行業將需要中長周期項目。我們只需要向自己保證，它們在供應成本的基礎上具有競爭力，然後它們也具有具有競爭力的溫室氣體強度。

And so projects like Willow and Alaska fit that mode. They're well under a $40 cost of supply. They are less than $10 a kilogram per barrel of CO2 intensity. So they fit well within what the world is going to need in order to ratably and reliably supply the energy to a growing world where energy demand is going to be increasing over time. We have to figure out how to do that more sustainably.

像 Willow 和 Alaska 這樣的項目就適合這種模式。它們的供應成本遠低於 40 美元。每桶二氧化碳的強度低於每公斤 10 美元。因此，它們非常適合世界將需要的東西，以便為能源需求將隨著時間的推移而增加的不斷增長的世界提供可靠且可靠的能源。我們必須弄清楚如何更可持續地做到這一點。

And then my follow-up question for Tim and Jack. I know on the Shell assets, you all stated in the past that the biggest opportunity there is transitioning from the 1 mile of the 2-mile laterals and to accomplish that, that's going to require coring up a lot of that acreage with some of the partners. And just kind of wanted an update sort of how that's progressing. And then if all sort of goes according to plan, kind of what would be a reasonable amount of that acreage that could be done with 2-mile-plus laterals?

然後是我對蒂姆和傑克的後續問題。我知道關於殼牌資產，你們過去都說過，最大的機會是從 2 英里側向的 1 英里過渡並實現這一目標，這將需要用一些夥伴。只是想要更新一下進展情況。然後，如果一切都按計劃進行，那麼可以用 2 英里以上的支路完成的合理面積是多少？

Yes. Thank you, John. We're -- these trades and swaps are a core competency of the team. So we're continuing that. The -- we've seen good opportunity there, and it's starting to manifest itself in some longer laterals, both on the operated and the nonop on the Shell assets, and I expect that to continue.

是的。謝謝你，約翰。我們是——這些交易和互換是團隊的核心競爭力。所以我們繼續這樣做。 - 我們在那裡看到了很好的機會，並且它開始在一些更長的橫向上表現出來，無論是在殼牌資產的運營和非運營方面，我預計這種情況會繼續下去。

Our next question comes from Leo Mariani from KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Leo Mariani。

Just wanted to follow up a little bit on some of your comments around LNG here. Really, what I'm just trying to get a sense of is, do you all at Conoco, through your kind of extensive global marketing footprint, think can the U.S. really do anything in the next couple of years, say, '23 and '24 to add any incremental LNG export capacity at this point in time? Or are those adds more kind of mid-decade and beyond? Just trying to get a sense of whether or not there can be more material connectivity between Europe and Asia and the U.S. in the next few years.

只是想在此處跟進您對 LNG 的一些評論。真的，我只是想了解的是，你們康菲公司的所有人，通過你們廣泛的全球營銷足跡，認為美國在未來幾年真的能做任何事情嗎，比如“23 和” 24 在這個時間點增加任何增加的液化天然氣出口能力？還是那些增加了更多類型的中期及以後？只是想了解未來幾年歐洲與亞洲和美國之間是否可以建立更多的物質聯繫。

Yes. Sure, Leo, this is Bill. I think that if you look at LNG export capacity today, it's running a little over 12 Bcf a day. The U.S. export terminals are running effectively at capacity or slightly above nameplate. I think that you've got several folks who are out in the market who are looking at taking FID, but there's a practical reality that once you take FID, it's several years to build these terminals. So I think if you're looking at impact in terms of immediate term or mid-decade, I'd say it's closer towards mid-decade before you start seeing these new import -- these new export facilities online.

是的。當然，Leo，這是比爾。我認為如果你看一下今天的液化天然氣出口能力，它每天的運行量略高於 12 Bcf。美國出口碼頭在產能或略高於銘牌的情況下有效運行。我認為市場上有幾個人正在考慮採用 FID，但實際情況是，一旦採用 FID，建造這些終端需要幾年時間。因此，我認為，如果您正在考慮近期或十年中期的影響，我會說在您開始看到這些新的進口 - 這些新的在線出口設施之前，它更接近十年中期。

Okay. That's helpful for sure. Just wanted to ask a brief question on your Canadian production, I guess, primarily in the Montney here. As I'm kind of looking at your conventional non-oil sands volumes, it looks like they've kind of been dropping for the last 4 quarters based on the data you all provide. Do you expect those volumes to start growing at some point, maybe in the back half of the year or '23? What can you kind of tell us about the trajectory of the Montney there?

好的。這肯定有幫助。只是想問一個關於你們加拿大作品的簡短問題，我猜，主要是在這裡的蒙特尼。當我在看你們的傳統非油砂量時，根據你們提供的數據，過去 4 個季度它們似乎一直在下降。您是否預計這些銷量會在某個時候開始增長，可能是在今年下半年或 23 年？你能告訴我們關於那裡的蒙特尼的軌跡嗎？

Yes, Leo, this is Nick. One of the factors that we have to look back at as we took a fairly large capital cost, obviously, in 2020, and then we're in maintenance mode in 2021. We didn't have any rigs or frac crews. So we've restarted that program earlier this year, we started fracking the wells. That's Pad 4, and then we're also drilling Pad 5 and Pad 6. So that drop that you're seeing over the last 4 quarters is really just a lack of work that we're doing up in Montney. So we're started back to drilling both, like I said, Pad 5, Pad 6, we'll see some of that production come on stream in Q3 and Q4.

是的，里奧，這是尼克。我們必須回顧的因素之一是我們在 2020 年花費了相當大的資本成本，然後我們在 2021 年處於維護模式。我們沒有任何鑽機或壓裂人員。所以我們今年早些時候重新啟動了這個項目，我們開始壓裂水井。那是 Pad 4，然後我們也在鑽 Pad 5 和 Pad 6。所以你在過去 4 個季度看到的下降實際上只是我們在 Montney 做的工作不足。所以我們開始重新鑽探，就像我說的那樣，Pad 5，Pad 6，我們將看到其中一些生產在第三季度和第四季度投產。

And then another thing, Leo, that we're doing is we're working on our CPF2 facility expansion. That's where we're adding both gas handling, our condensate recovery and then water handling. We're about 30% complete on that, and that's on schedule and that will come on stream in 2023 as well. The condensate recovery unit will allow us to really monetize on that Kelt acreage that we picked up a few years ago.

然後，Leo，我們正在做的另一件事是我們正在擴展我們的 CPF2 設施。這就是我們添加氣體處理、冷凝水回收和水處理的地方。我們在這方面完成了大約 30%，這是按計劃進行的，也將在 2023 年投入使用。冷凝水回收裝置將使我們能夠真正從幾年前獲得的 Kelt 種植面積中獲利。

We have reached the allotted time we have for questions. I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Keener for final remarks.

我們已經到了提問時間。我現在想把電話轉回給基納先生做最後的評論。

Thank you, Hilda, and thanks to all who took part in today's call. And with that, I'll wrap it up with you, Hilda for any closing comments. Thank you.

謝謝你，希爾達，也感謝所有參加今天電話會議的人。有了這個，我會和你一起結束，希爾達的任何結束評論。謝謝你。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. We thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。