康菲 (COP) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Q4 2021 ConocoPhillips Earnings Conference Call. My name is Zanera, and I'll be the operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加 2021 年第四季度康菲石油公司收益電話會議。我的名字是 Zanera，我將擔任今天電話的接線員。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Mark Keener, VP, Investor Relations. Mark, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Mark Keener 先生。馬克，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Zanera. Welcome to all of our listeners today. First, let me introduce the members of our team who are on today's call. We have Ryan Lance, our Chairman and CEO; Bill Bullock, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Dominic Macklon, Executive Vice President of Strategy, Sustainability and Technology; Tim Leach, Executive Vice President of Lower 48; and Nick Olds, Executive Vice President for Global Operations. Brian and Bill will lead off today's call with some prepared comments, after which the team will be available to take your questions.

謝謝你，扎內拉。歡迎今天我們所有的聽眾。首先，讓我介紹一下今天電話會議的我們團隊的成員。我們有我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Ryan Lance； Bill Bullock，執行副總裁兼首席財務官； Dominic Macklon，戰略、可持續發展和技術執行副總裁； Lower 48 執行副總裁 Tim Leach； Nick Olds，全球運營執行副總裁。 Brian 和 Bill 將在今天的電話會議上發表一些準備好的評論，之後團隊將可以回答您的問題。

Before I turn the call over to Ryan, a few quick reminders. In conjunction with this morning's release, we posted supplemental materials that include fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 highlights, earnings and cash flow summaries, preliminary reserve replacement information, price realization analysis and updated 2022 guidance and sensitivities.

在我將電話轉給 Ryan 之前，有一些快速提醒。結合今天上午的發布，我們發布了補充材料，其中包括 2021 年第四季度和全年的亮點、收益和現金流摘要、初步儲備替代信息、價格實現分析以及更新的 2022 年指導和敏感性。

During our call, we may make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results could differ due to the factors described in today's press release and in our periodic filings with the SEC. And finally, we'll also make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in this morning's release and on our website.

在我們的電話會議期間，我們可能會根據當前的預期做出前瞻性陳述。由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。最後，我們今天還將參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。可以在今天上午的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到與最接近的相應 GAAP 措施的對賬。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ryan.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Ryan。

Thank you, Mark. So 2021 was a truly remarkable year for ConocoPhillips. Our operating performance around the globe was outstanding, we generated strong returns on and of capital for our shareholders and closed on two significant, highly-accretive acquisitions in the heart of the Permian Basin. Our exceptional results last year are directly attributable to the talent and dedication of our global workforce.

謝謝你，馬克。因此，2021 年對於康菲石油公司來說是非常了不起的一年。我們在全球的經營業績非常出色，我們為股東創造了可觀的資本回報，並在二疊紀盆地中心完成了兩項重大的、高增值的收購。我們去年取得的優異成績直接歸功於我們全球員工的才華和奉獻精神。

We produced 1.6 million barrels per day and brought first production online at GMT2 in Alaska, the third Montney well pad and the Malikai Phase 2 and S&P Phase 2 projects in Malaysia. We also completed the Tor II project in Norway and achieved all of this with excellent cost, schedule, safety and environmental performance.

我們每天生產 160 萬桶，並在阿拉斯加的 GMT2、第三個蒙特尼井場以及馬來西亞的 Malikai 2 期和 S&P 2 期項目上線了第一批生產。我們還完成了挪威的 Tor II 項目，並以出色的成本、進度、安全和環境績效實現了這一切。

Financially, we achieved a 14% full-year return on capital employed or 16% on a cash adjusted basis, and generated $15.7 billion in CFO, with over $10 billion in free cash flow. And we returned $6 billion to our shareholders, representing 38% of our cash from operations. We also continued our rigorous portfolio optimization work, completing the truly transformative Concho and Shell Permian acquisitions, and further high-grading our asset base around the world.

在財務方面，我們實現了 14% 的全年使用資本回報率或 16% 的現金調整基礎，並產生了 157 億美元的首席財務官，以及超過 100 億美元的自由現金流。我們向股東返還了 60 億美元，占我們運營現金的 38%。我們還繼續進行嚴格的投資組合優化工作，完成了真正具有變革意義的 Concho 和 Shell Permian 收購，並進一步提升了我們在全球的資產基礎。

In the Asia Pacific region, we exercised our preemption right to acquire an additional 10% in APLNG and announced the sale of assets in Indonesia for $1.4 billion. In the Lower 48, we generated $0.3 billion in proceeds from the sale of noncore assets last year, and last week, we signed an agreement to sell an additional property set, outside of our core areas for an additional $440 million. Collectively, these transactions reduced both the average cost of supply and the GHG intensity of our more than 20-billion-barrel resource base and we're well down the road toward achieving our $4 billion to $5 billion in dispositions by 2023.

在亞太地區，我們行使優先購買權額外收購 APLNG 10% 的股份，並宣布以 14 億美元的價格出售在印度尼西亞的資產。在下 48 州，我們去年通過出售非核心資產獲得了 3 億美元的收益，上週，我們簽署了一項協議，以額外 4.4 億美元的價格在我們的核心區域之外出售一套額外的房產。總的來說，這些交易降低了我們超過 200 億桶資源基礎的平均供應成本和溫室氣體排放強度，我們正在朝著 2023 年實現 40 億至 50 億美元的處置目標邁進。

In early December, consistent with our 10-year plan and capital allocation priorities, we announced a returns-driven capital budget for 2022 that's expected to deliver modest growth this year. We also introduced a new variable return of cash, or VROC, tiered to our distribution framework, and provided a full year target of $7 billion in total returns of capital to our shareholders.

12 月初，根據我們的 10 年計劃和資本分配優先事項，我們宣布了 2022 年以回報為導向的資本預算，預計今年將實現適度增長。我們還引入了新的可變現金回報率 (VROC)，與我們的分配框架分層，並為我們的股東提供了 70 億美元的全年資本回報率目標。

Based on current prices on the forward curve, we've increased the target to $8 billion, with the incremental $1 billion coming in the form of increased share repurchases and a higher variable return of cash. The $0.30 per share VROC announced for the second quarter represents a 50% increase over our inaugural variable return to shareholders that we paid this quarter.

根據遠期曲線的當前價格，我們將目標提高到 80 億美元，增加的 10 億美元以增加股票回購和更高可變現金回報的形式出現。第二季度宣布的每股 0.30 美元 VROC 比我們本季度支付給股東的首次可變回報增加了 50%。

Now to put the $8 billion in perspective, it equates to an increase of more than 30% from the $6 billion returned last year and a greater than 50% increase in projected cash return to shareholders. Our three-tier distribution framework provides a flexible and durable means to meet our returns commitment through the price cycle and truly is differential to others in this sector as our returns commitment is based on a percentage of CFO, and not free cash flow.

現在從 80 億美元的角度來看，這相當於比去年的 60 億美元增加了 30% 以上，預計股東的現金回報增加了 50% 以上。我們的三層分銷框架提供了一種靈活且持久的方式來滿足我們在整個價格週期中的回報承諾，並且與該行業的其他公司真正不同，因為我們的回報承諾基於 CFO 的百分比，而不是自由現金流。

And as you know, we are guided in everything we do by our Triple Mandate. We must reliably and responsibly deliver oil and gas production to meet energy transition pathway demand. We need to generate competitive returns on and of capital for our shareholders, and achieve our Paris-aligned net-zero ambition by 2050.

如您所知，我們所做的一切都以我們的三重使命為指導。我們必須可靠且負責任地提供石油和天然氣生產，以滿足能源轉型路徑的需求。我們需要為股東創造具有競爭力的資本回報，並在 2050 年之前實現我們與巴黎一致的淨零目標。

Just as I'm very proud of the excellent operational and returns-focused performance we delivered in 2021, I'm equally pleased about the progress we have made in support of the third pillar of our mandate. We increased our medium-term emissions intensity reduction target to 40% to 50% by 2030 and expanded it to include both gross operated and net equity production.

正如我對我們在 2021 年實現的出色運營和以回報為中心的業績感到非常自豪一樣，我同樣對我們在支持我們使命的第三個支柱方面取得的進展感到高興。我們將到 2030 年的中期排放強度降低目標提高到 40% 到 50%，並將其擴大到包括總運營和淨權益生產。

As a reminder, we're also committed to further reducing our methane emissions and achieving our zero routine flaring ambition by 2025. And as highlighted in our December release, we've allocated $0.2 billion of this year's capital program for projects to reduce the company's Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity and investments in several early-stage, low-carbon opportunities that address end-use emissions. We strongly believe that this level of focus on and performance toward fully realizing our triple mandate has ConocoPhillips very well-positioned to not just survive through the energy transition, but to thrive regardless of the pathways it takes.

提醒一下，我們還致力於進一步減少我們的甲烷排放，並在 2025 年之前實現我們零常規燃燒的目標。正如我們在 12 月發布的報告中所強調的那樣，我們已經為項目分配了 2 億美元的今年資本計劃，以減少公司的範圍 1 和 2 的排放強度和投資於解決最終用途排放的幾個早期低碳機會。我們堅信，這種對全面實現我們三重使命的關注和表現使康菲石油公司處於非常有利的位置，不僅可以在能源轉型中生存下來，而且無論採取何種途徑都能蓬勃發展。

While we're on the topic of energy transition, I'd like to touch on the macro environment. Commodity prices today reflect global energy demand returning to pre-pandemic levels, along with supply being impacted by decreased investment in oil and gas over the past couple of years, concerns about inventory levels, and the amount of available spare production capacity in the system. All these factors demonstrate the ongoing importance of our sector to the global economy today and for the foreseeable future.

當我們談到能源轉型的話題時，我想談談宏觀環境。今天的大宗商品價格反映了全球能源需求恢復到大流行前的水平，以及供應受到過去幾年石油和天然氣投資減少、對庫存水平的擔憂以及系統中可用的備用產能數量的影響。所有這些因素都表明我們的行業在當今和可預見的未來對全球經濟的持續重要性。

It's becoming increasingly clear that the energy transition isn't going to happen with the flip of a switch. What people and businesses around the globe need is a managed and orderly transition, but that's not what the world is seeing to this point. Supply and demand balances are fragile at the moment, likely driving continued volatility, and the current commodity price situation in Europe may be providing a cautionary signal.

越來越清楚的是，能源轉換不會隨著開關的翻轉而發生。全球人民和企業需要的是一個有管理和有序的過渡，但這並不是世界目前所看到的。目前供需平衡很脆弱，可能會導致持續波動，而歐洲當前的大宗商品價格形勢可能會提供一個警示信號。

The simple reality is that most alternative energy sources still have a long way to go toward becoming as scalable, reliable, affordable and accessible as the world needs them to be, which brings me back to our Triple Mandate and the importance of performing well across all three of the pillars, for our shareholders and for the people in the world who need and use our products.

一個簡單的現實是，大多數替代能源要達到世界所需的可擴展、可靠、負擔得起和可訪問性還有很長的路要走，這讓我回到了我們的三重使命以及在所有方面表現良好的重要性三大支柱，為我們的股東和世界上需要和使用我們產品的人們。

Now with that, let me turn the call over to Bill, and he will cover the fourth quarter and our 2022 outlook.

現在，讓我把電話轉給比爾，他將介紹第四季度和我們 2022 年的展望。

Thanks, Ryan. Looking at fourth-quarter earnings, we generated $2.27 per share in adjusted earnings. This performance reflects production above the midpoint of guidance and strong price realizations as well as some commercial and inventory timing benefits, partially offset by slightly higher costs and DD&A.

謝謝，瑞恩。從第四季度的收益來看，我們的調整後收益為每股 2.27 美元。這一業績反映了高於指導中點的產量和強勁的價格實現以及一些商業和庫存時間優勢，部分被略高的成本和 DD&A 所抵消。

Lower 48 production averaged 818,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the quarter, including 483,000 from the Permian, 213,000 from the Eagle Ford and 100,000 from the Bakken. As previously communicated, our Permian and overall Lower 48 production were both increased roughly 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the quarter due to the conversion from two-2 to three-stream accounting for the acquired Concho assets.

本季度，48 號油田的平均產量為 818,000 桶石油當量，其中二疊紀 483,000 桶，鷹灘 213,000 桶和 Bakken 100,000 桶。如前所述，由於收購的 Concho 資產從 2-2 流轉換為 3 流，我們的二疊紀和整體 Lower 48 產量在本季度均增加了約 40,000 桶石油當量/天。

At the end of the year, we had 20 operated drilling rigs and 9 frac crews working in the Lower 48, including those developing the acreage we recently acquired from Shell. As Ryan touched on earlier, operations across the rest of the portfolio also ran extremely well last year, with our GMT2 project in Alaska producing first oil in the fourth quarter as planned.

到年底，我們有 20 台鑽井平台和 9 名壓裂人員在 Lower 48 工作，其中包括我們最近從殼牌收購的開發麵積的人員。正如 Ryan 早些時候提到的那樣，去年該投資組合的其他業務也運行得非常好，我們在阿拉斯加的 GMT2 項目按計劃在第四季度生產了第一批石油。

Turning to cash from operations, we generated $5.5 billion in CFO, excluding working capital, resulting in free cash flow of $3.9 billion in the quarter. For the full-year 2021, we generated $15.7 billion in CFO, $10.4 billion of free cash flow and returned $6 billion to shareholders. In addition to the asset dispositions Ryan covered, we also sold 117 million shares we held in Cenovus in the year, generating $1.1 billion in proceeds that we used to fund repurchases of our own shares. This left us with a little over 90 million Cenovus shares at the end of the year, which we intend to fully monetize by the end of this quarter.

轉向運營現金，我們在 CFO 中產生了 55 億美元，不包括營運資金，導致本季度的自由現金流為 39 億美元。 2021 年全年，我們為 CFO 創造了 157 億美元、104 億美元的自由現金流，並向股東返還了 60 億美元。除了瑞安所涵蓋的資產處置之外，我們還在這一年出售了我們在 Cenovus 持有的 1.17 億股股票，產生了 11 億美元的收益，用於為我們自己的股票回購提供資金。這讓我們在今年年底擁有超過 9000 萬股 Cenovus 股票，我們打算在本季度末將其全部貨幣化。

We ended the year with over $5 billion in cash, maintaining our differential balance sheet strength, even after completing the all-cash acquisition of Shell's Delaware Basin assets. So to recap, it was not only a strong quarter, but one that also bodes very well for 2022 and future years. We continue to optimize the portfolio, our businesses are running very well around the globe, and we have had an overall reserve replacement ratio of nearly 380%, establishing an incredibly powerful platform for the company as we head into this year and beyond.

即使在完成對殼牌特拉華盆地資產的全現金收購之後，我們仍以超過 50 億美元的現金結束了這一年，保持了我們不同的資產負債表實力。因此，回顧一下，這不僅是一個強勁的季度，而且對於 2022 年和未來幾年來說也是一個好兆頭。我們繼續優化投資組合，我們的業務在全球範圍內運行良好，我們的整體儲備替代率接近 380%，為我們進入今年及以後的公司建立了一個非常強大的平台。

Our cash flow performance and leverage to prices have substantially improved over the past couple of years, as demonstrated by our fourth- quarter results, and expect it will continue to improve as we begin including the newly-acquired Delaware assets in our consolidated results this quarter. Now demonstrating this point and appreciating that it's helpful for the market to have an accurate sense of our stronger CFO generating capacity, at a WTI price of $75 a barrel with a $3 differential to Brent and a Henry Hub price of $3.75, we estimate our 2022 full-year cash from operations would be approximately $21 billion, which reflects us reentering a tax-paying position in the U.S. this year at those price levels. And our free cash flow for the year would be roughly $14 billion.

正如我們的第四季度業績所證明的那樣，我們的現金流表現和價格槓桿在過去幾年中得到了顯著改善，並且隨著我們開始將新收購的特拉華州資產納入本季度的綜合業績，預計它將繼續改善.現在證明這一點並認識到這有助於市場準確了解我們更強的 CFO 發電能力，WTI 價格為每桶 75 美元，與布倫特原油價格差 3 美元，Henry Hub 價格為 3.75 美元，我們估計 2022 年全年運營現金將約為 210 億美元，這反映了我們今年以這些價格水平在美國重新進入納稅地位。我們今年的自由現金流約為 140 億美元。

And of course, we continue to be unhedged across our global diverse production base, so we expect to fully capture the upside of the current price environment. We provided updated sensitivities in today's supplemental materials to help estimate how much earnings and CFO are projected to change this year with marker price movements.

當然，我們繼續在我們的全球多元化生產基地中未對沖，因此我們希望充分把握當前價格環境的上行空間。我們在今天的補充材料中提供了更新的敏感性，以幫助估計今年預計有多少收益和首席財務官會隨著標記價格的變動而發生變化。

So to sum it up, all that we've shared with you today underscores our readiness to reliably generate very competitive returns for our shareholders as we thoughtfully move forward as a responsible, valuable E&P player in the energy transition. That is our Triple Mandate. It's what we have ConocoPhillips built for and ready to deliver.

總而言之，我們今天與您分享的所有內容都強調了我們準備為我們的股東可靠地產生極具競爭力的回報，因為我們在能源轉型中作為負責任、有價值的勘探與生產參與者深思熟慮地前進。這就是我們的三重使命。這就是我們為康菲石油公司打造並準備交付的產品。

Now with that, let's go to the operator to start the Q&A.

現在，讓我們去運營商開始問答吧。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Jeanine Wai from Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊的 Jeanine Wai。

Our first question, maybe for you, Ryan. It's still pretty early in the year, but you have the confidence to increase the expected cash return by $1 billion to the $8 billion. You provided an update on your macro view earlier in the call. And is this really the primary driver for increasing the cash return level? And can you provide an update on how inflation is trending for Conoco, given continued strong oil prices as well as we heard some of the general recent industry commentary from service companies?

我們的第一個問題，也許是給你的，瑞恩。今年還很早，但您有信心將預期現金回報增加 10 億美元，達到 80 億美元。您在通話早些時候提供了有關宏視圖的更新。這真的是提高現金回報水平的主要驅動力嗎？鑑於持續強勁的油價以及我們聽到服務公司最近的一些一般行業評論，您能否提供有關康菲公司通脹趨勢的最新信息？

Yes. Thanks, Jeanine. It is the primary reason we're increasing our returns of capital to our shareholders from the $7 billion that we announced here just a few weeks ago to $8 billion now. So again, it represents a pretty significant increase year-on-year, but it's a reflection of kind of our view. And as we step back and take a look, like we will each quarter, thinking about where the forward curve is at, where the market's at, where our capital is at, where the balance sheet is at. So it's a recognition of a strengthening commodity price market.

是的。謝謝，珍妮。這是我們將我們對股東的資本回報從幾週前宣布的 70 億美元增加到現在的 80 億美元的主要原因。再說一次，它代表了同比相當大的增長，但這反映了我們的觀點。當我們退後一步看一看，就像我們每個季度一樣，思考遠期曲線在哪裡，市場在哪裡，我們的資本在哪裡，資產負債表在哪裡。因此，這是對商品價格市場走強的認可。

And that's a reflection of that strengthening since the December time frame when we announced our capital budget for the year. And we're seeing a bit more inflation as a result of the strengthening commodity price that we see. And I'd say it's primarily in the Permian Basin as well, but be kind of spreading a bit to the Lower 48. Prior, we were probably in the mid-single-digit kind of inflation across the whole company. I would say now we're in the mid-level single-digit kind of inflation rates. So we're seeing the impact of that.

這反映了自 12 月我們宣布本年度資本預算以來的加強。由於我們看到的商品價格走強，我們看到了更多的通貨膨脹。而且我想說它也主要在二疊紀盆地，但有點擴散到下 48。之前，我們可能在整個公司處於中個位數的通貨膨脹中。我想說現在我們處於中等個位數的通貨膨脹率。所以我們看到了它的影響。

It's uncertain commodities of spend like tubulars, trucking, labor, chemicals, OTCG, those kinds of things and primarily in the more active parts of the Lower 48 like the Permian today. Around the whole world, though, we see much lower inflation, and that's the benefit of a global diversified portfolio. But we are seeing a little bit higher pressure at these higher commodity prices than maybe what we would have said even a month and a half or two months ago.

這是不確定的消費商品，如管材、卡車運輸、勞動力、化學品、OTCG 等，主要是在今天的二疊紀等下 48 地區更活躍的地區。然而，在全球範圍內，我們看到通脹率要低得多，這就是全球多元化投資組合的好處。但我們看到，這些較高的商品價格所承受的壓力比我們在一個半月或兩個月前所說的要大一些。

Okay. Great. Our second question is on the Shell acquisition. We know it hasn't really been very long since it closed, but can you provide any color on opportunities related to the integration or any efficiency gains? And I guess we're thinking, for example, just using Concho as a playbook, you were very successful at capturing lower-hanging cost savings related to the supply chain, related to marketing optimizations and that added up to a big structural number.

好的。偉大的。我們的第二個問題是關於殼牌的收購。我們知道它關閉後的時間並不長，但是您能否就與集成或任何效率提升相關的機會提供任何顏色？而且我想我們正在考慮，例如，僅將 Concho 用作劇本，您就非常成功地獲得了與供應鏈相關的較低成本節約，與營銷優化相關，並且加起來是一個很大的結構數字。

But for the Shell deal, you have a higher percentage of non-operated interest, and that could dampen the impact of similar optimization. So are there other unique opportunities with the Shell assets?

但對於殼牌交易，您擁有更高比例的非經營性權益，這可能會削弱類似優化的影響。那麼殼牌資產還有其他獨特的機會嗎？

Jeanine, this is Tim. Yes, let me address those questions. As a reminder, we closed the Shell acquisition on December 1, just 70 days after we made the announcement of the transaction. We've had a smooth and safe transition of operatorship and personnel over that time. So that's been a huge success.

珍妮，這是蒂姆。是的，讓我來解決這些問題。提醒一下，我們於 12 月 1 日完成了對殼牌的收購，僅在我們宣布交易 70 天后。在那段時間裡，我們已經順利和安全地進行了操作人員和人員的過渡。所以這是一個巨大的成功。

We plan to continue running four rigs on that property, the same activity rate that Shell was running through the remainder of this year, but we've moved our personnel, our rigs on. And since we've taken up operatorship, we've quickly transitioned to our style of well drilling design, casing design, which has generated lower cost. We've also switched to our fracking design, which provides better economics using our style of proppant, fluid specs and cluster spacing.

我們計劃繼續在該物業上運行四個鑽井平台，與殼牌今年剩餘時間的活動率相同，但我們已經轉移了我們的人員，我們的鑽井平台。自從我們開始經營業務以來，我們很快就轉向了我們的鑽井設計風格，即套管設計，這產生了更低的成本。我們還改用了我們的壓裂設計，使用我們的支撐劑風格、流體規格和簇間距提供了更好的經濟性。

So all those are kind of the blocking and tackling of us putting our style of operations on those properties. But I would tell you that the biggest opportunity in the near term is transitioning from one-mile wells to two-mile wells. And that's with our partners out there in the field. All those companies that we're partnered with, we have done deals with in the past, to core up and drill longer laterals. So I think that's the low-hanging fruit.

所以所有這些都是我們將我們的操作風格放在這些屬性上的一種阻礙和解決。但我會告訴你，近期最大的機會是從一英里的井過渡到兩英里的井。這就是我們在該領域的合作夥伴。所有與我們合作的公司，我們過去都做過交易，以取芯和鑽更長的支路。所以我認為這是唾手可得的成果。

We are in conversations with all of them. We've made transactions on some of those properties already. And just for frame of reference, the difference between drilling a two-mile lateral on those properties and a one-mile lateral, everything else being held the same, is a 50-basis-point improvement on rate of return on well economics, which generates about a 30% improvement in cost of supply.

我們正在與他們所有人進行對話。我們已經在其中一些房產上進行了交易。僅作為參考框架，在這些屬性上鑽兩英里橫向和一英里橫向之間的差異，其他一切都保持不變，是井經濟回報率提高了 50 個基點，這使供應成本降低約 30%。

The other thing that we're working on that I'm pretty excited about, the Shell deal in and of itself has allowed us more freedom for overall property management. You may have read in the last couple of weeks that we sold some noncore assets on the New Mexico shelf and on the Central Basin platform. The kind of efficiency we get from those kind of property managements, for example, that one transaction allowed us to sell 25% of our operated wellbores, and it only affected 2% of our production in the Permian. So that kind of efficiency will flow through the entire organization and it's just one example of how I think we're making things better.

我們正在做的另一件事讓我非常興奮，殼牌交易本身就讓我們在整體物業管理方面有了更多的自由。您可能在過去幾週讀到，我們在新墨西哥大陸架和中央盆地平台上出售了一些非核心資產。我們從這些物業管理中獲得的效率，例如，一筆交易讓我們出售了 25% 的已運營井筒，而它只影響了我們在二疊紀的 2% 的產量。所以這種效率將貫穿整個組織，這只是我認為我們如何讓事情變得更好的一個例子。

Our next question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Neil Mehta。

Ryan, you were quoted recently talking about the U.S. production profile, I think your point was entry-to-exit this year, you thought we might grow 800,000 barrels a day, I guess that's of crude. I just -- I'd love your perspective on how you're seeing the U.S. production profile as you think about yourself and peers.

瑞安，你最近被引用談論美國的生產概況，我認為你的觀點是今年的進入到退出，你認為我們可能每天增長 80 萬桶，我猜那是原油。我只是 - 我喜歡你對自己和同行的看法，看看你是如何看待美國生產概況的。

And it's tough for us to get the same store same-store sales growth rate for Conoco in the Permian because, of course, you've done some acquisitions here. But just as you think about the growth rate in '22 versus '21 for your own asset base, how are you thinking about that in the Permian?

而且我們很難在二疊紀獲得康菲的同店同店銷售增長率，因為當然，你在這裡做了一些收購。但是，正如您考慮 22 年與 21 年您自己的資產基礎的增長率一樣，您如何看待二疊紀的這一點？

Yes, I can let Tim talk about specifically the Lower 48 and the asset. But I'd say the macro, yes, I was quoted in a recent discussion with several of my peers that we put the entry-to-exit at about 800,000 barrels a day this year. And I think -- and in light of the last couple of announcements that I've heard, Neil, I would actually be moving that number up now because I think we were even a bit surprised by the strength of some of the numbers that we were hearing.

是的，我可以讓蒂姆專門談談下 48 和資產。但我會說宏觀，是的，我在最近與幾位同行的討論中被引述說，我們今年將進入到退出的產量設定為每天約 800,000 桶。而且我認為 - 鑑於我聽到的最後幾個公告，尼爾，我現在實際上會提高這個數字，因為我認為我們對我們的一些數字的強度感到有點驚訝聽到了。

But I think importantly, we would place -- and that is a crude and condensate number. It doesn't include NGLs. So I'd say we're 800,000 to 900,000 probably barrels a day growth this year from the U.S. and probably a similar kind of number coming out next year. This year dominated by the privates, with some influence by the publics.

但我認為重要的是，我們會放置 - 這是一個粗略和濃縮的數字。它不包括 NGL。所以我會說我們今年可能每天從美國增長 800,000 到 900,000 桶，明年可能會出現類似的數字。今年由私人主導，受到公眾的一些影響。

But clearly, next year, probably having that swap a bit and the publics kind of regenerating and coming out of a maintenance capital mode in 2021 and reenergizing, just like we are. We plan to add some activity in both -- in all three of the Big 3, the Bakken, the Eagle Ford and the Permian as well. So I can let Tim maybe talk a bit about how he sees that, how that manifests in our portfolio on a normalized basis.

但很明顯，明年，可能會進行一些交換，公眾會在 2021 年重新煥發活力，擺脫維護資本模式，重新煥發活力，就像我們一樣。我們計劃在這兩者中增加一些活動——在三巨頭、巴肯、鷹福特和二疊紀的所有三個中。所以我可以讓蒂姆談談他是如何看待這一點的，這在我們的投資組合中是如何在標準化的基礎上體現出來的。

Yes. I don't really have a whole lot to add other than to just remind you that underlying decline rate on the Permian is pretty substantial. And so the increase in activity that we've seen from the privates and such will generate more production, and you've seen that show up in the numbers. But I think companies like ours and other large companies kind of think more of a sustainable growth rate because that's really where you get your efficiency, is a disciplined kind of growth that allows you to move down the learning curve and lower your cost of supply.

是的。除了提醒您二疊紀的潛在下降率相當可觀之外，我真的沒有太多要補充的東西。因此，我們從私人部門看到的活動增加等將產生更多的生產，您已經看到數字顯示了這一點。但我認為像我們這樣的公司和其他大公司更多地考慮可持續的增長率，因為這確實是你提高效率的地方，是一種有紀律的增長，可以讓你降低學習曲線並降低供應成本。

We talked in our 10-year plan of a growth rate for our Permian in the high single digits, and that as a result of that disciplined growth. So I do think there'll be more consolidation. So for a company like us, you've seen our operated production grow more than 35% in the Permian since we did the Shell deal and other things. So I think there'll be some production moving around based on the consolidation.

我們在 10 年計劃中談到了二疊紀高個位數的增長率，這是有紀律的增長的結果。所以我確實認為會有更多的整合。因此，對於像我們這樣的公司，自從我們完成殼牌交易和其他事情以來，您已經看到我們在二疊紀的運營產量增長了 35% 以上。所以我認為在整合的基礎上會有一些生產轉移。

And actually, that was my follow-up here, which is you've developed a core competence here, seeing either the market around M&A between the Foster Creek transaction and then, of course, Concho and the Shell assets. How do you think of ConocoPhillips in terms of further consolidation and the role it can play, particularly in the Lower 48?

實際上，那是我的後續行動，您在這裡已經發展了核心競爭力，看到了 Foster Creek 交易之間的併購市場，當然還有 Concho 和殼牌資產。您如何看待康菲石油公司的進一步整合以及它可以發揮的作用，尤其是在 48 下游？

Well, I've said before, Neil, that I think further consolidation makes sense. I think you have to get more assets in responsible hands like ConocoPhillips. We spend a lot of time talking about our Triple Mandate and the value proposition that we have and how we just think about the business. And I think getting more assets like that into responsible hands is going to make sense.

好吧，尼爾，我之前說過，我認為進一步整合是有道理的。我認為您必須像康菲石油公司這樣負責任地掌握更多資產。我們花了很多時間談論我們的三重使命和我們擁有的價值主張以及我們對業務的看法。而且我認為將更多這樣的資產交到負責任的手中是有意義的。

Now clearly, with the addition of Concho and Shell, we've got a lot on our plate, and the bar is quite high inside the company. So we're not immune to what's going on. We watch the market. We're on top of everything that's going on. It takes a lot to make us better as a company, and we've got to see that in any assets that we look at, make us a better company, make our 10-year plan a better plan. And if we apply what we think is a better way of drilling and completing these wells, can we add value to the assets that we might be looking at.

現在很明顯，隨著康喬和殼牌的加入，我們有很多事情要做，而且公司內部的門檻很高。所以我們不能對正在發生的事情免疫。我們觀察市場。我們掌握著正在發生的一切。作為一家公司，要讓我們變得更好需要付出很多，我們必須看到，在我們看到的任何資產中，讓我們成為更好的公司，讓我們的 10 年計劃成為更好的計劃。如果我們應用我們認為更好的方法來鑽探和完成這些井，我們能否為我們可能正在關注的資產增加價值。

So yes, we're always looking and we're -- we've been ruthless high-graders of the portfolio. So as you mentioned, even dating back to the Foster Creek Christina Lake transaction that we did that really just started us down this path. And the $4 billion to $5 billion that we've committed to sell and high grade by the end of 2023 as well. And we're well on the pathway to do that.

所以是的，我們一直在尋找，而且我們一直是投資組合中無情的高年級學生。因此，正如您所提到的，甚至可以追溯到我們所做的福斯特溪克里斯蒂娜湖交易，這真的只是讓我們走上了這條道路。以及我們承諾到 2023 年底出售的 40 億至 50 億美元的高品位產品。我們正在努力做到這一點。

So we're always trying to lower the cost of supply in the portfolio, lower the GHG intensity. And we can do that through organic investments, and we can do that potentially through inorganic if they compete.

因此，我們一直在努力降低投資組合中的供應成本，降低溫室氣體排放強度。我們可以通過有機投資來做到這一點，如果它們競爭，我們也可以通過無機投資來做到這一點。

our next question comes from Roger Read from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Roger Read。

I guess maybe come back to the commentary about switching from the one-mile to the two-mile laterals, where you even heard talk of an increasing percentage of three-mile laterals. And I was just wondering as you think about that aspect of it, whether or not you've tried that yet, whether or not it made sense on your acreage in any sort of idea what that might do in terms of a further impact on decreasing your cost of supply?

我想也許會回到關於從一英里側向轉換到兩英里側向的評論，你甚至聽說過三英里側向的比例越來越高。我只是想知道，當您考慮它的這方面時，您是否已經嘗試過，是否對您的種植面積有意義你的供應成本？

Yes, Roger, we just -- in the Southern Midland Basin, just completed a drilling project that included several 3-mile and one 3.5-mile lateral that we drilled in record time, and have been very pleased with the results and the production from that. So I think that's a big opportunity for the future. It's another challenge for your lease configuration, that's why it's good to have big, blocky acreage blocks.

是的，羅傑，我們剛剛在米德蘭盆地南部完成了一個鑽井項目，其中包括幾個 3 英里和一個 3.5 英里的橫向鑽井，我們在創紀錄的時間內鑽井，並且對結果和產量非常滿意那。所以我認為這對未來來說是一個很大的機會。這對您的租賃配置來說是另一個挑戰，這就是為什麼擁有大塊的塊狀土地是好的原因。

No doubt. And that leads into my next question, which as Jeanine said earlier, very early in your Shell Permian acquisition. But I was curious, anything you've seen on the true swap side? You mentioned the one thing in New Mexico, but I mean like a real improvement in terms of acreage alignment where you can become more active?

毫無疑問。這就引出了我的下一個問題，正如珍妮之前所說，在你收購殼牌二疊紀的早期。但我很好奇，你在真正的交換方面看到了什麼？你提到了新墨西哥州的一件事，但我的意思是在種植面積方面有真正的改善，你可以變得更加活躍？

Yes. We have one big partner and several other pretty sizable partners that we've done business with for a long time on swapping and trading. The good news is that this is a win-win for both parties. Everybody wants to be able to drill longer laterals where they have bigger interest in their own operations.

是的。我們有一個大合作夥伴和其他幾個相當大的合作夥伴，我們在交換和交易方面已經開展了很長時間的業務。好消息是，這對雙方來說都是雙贏的。每個人都希望能夠在他們對自己的作業有更大興趣的地方鑽更長的分支。

So we've already accomplished some of this. I can't tell you if I think it's going to be a lot of small blocking and tackling or a few big trades, but things are moving pretty rapidly in a good direction.

所以我們已經完成了其中的一些。我不能告訴你我是否認為這將是大量的小攔截和搶斷或一些大交易，但事情正在朝著好的方向迅速發展。

our next question comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Ryan, I want to come back to your comments about the Permian. And I just want to ask you philosophically, are you concerned about the U.S. going back to that level of growth, given the recent history of growth for growth's sake? And we all know how Saudi responded to that in that global market, which despite the post-COVID recovery, still has a relatively pedestrian long-term growth outlook. And how does that play into your strategy?

瑞安，我想回到你對二疊紀的評論。我只想從哲學上問你，考慮到最近為增長而增長的歷史，你是否擔心美國會回到那個增長水平？我們都知道沙特是如何在全球市場上對此做出反應的，儘管在 COVID 之後復蘇，但其長期增長前景仍然相對平淡。這對您的策略有何影響？

Yes, Doug, thanks. No, I am. I think that sits very -- not so much at the back of our mind, but right at the front of our mind, I am absolutely concerned about. I think the one change maybe relative to late 2014 and '15, the last time we were kind of at these levels is just what is the spare capacity sitting in the OPEC+ group. It was quite a different number back at that point in time, and you can -- we can all debate what that number is. And the fact that the inventories are down quite a bit globally and certainly here in the U.S.

是的，道格，謝謝。不，我是。我認為這非常 - 不是在我們的腦海中，而是在我們的腦海中，我非常擔心。我認為一個變化可能是相對於 2014 年末和 15 年，我們上一次達到這樣的水平時，OPEC+ 集團的閒置產能是多少。在那個時候，這是一個完全不同的數字，你可以 - 我們都可以討論這個數字是多少。事實上，全球庫存下降了很多，當然在美國也是如此。

So I think there's a little bit of time that we have associated with that. But certainly, if we're getting back to the level of growth in the U.S. that if you're not worried about it, you should be, and be thinking about it.

所以我認為我們有一點時間與之相關。但可以肯定的是，如果我們要回到美國的增長水平，如果你不擔心它，你應該擔心它，並且正在考慮它。

Yes. Well, I hope your peers are listening. My follow-up is, I don't know if you're able to give this yet, maybe a question for Bill. But with all the portfolio changes going on, one of our favorite kind of outputs is the breakeven analysis you guys do, the sustaining capital that goes along with that. Are you able to give us an update on a post-tax basis, given that you're now back to paying full cash taxes?

是的。好吧，我希望你的同齡人正在傾聽。我的後續行動是，我不知道你是否能夠給出這個，也許是對比爾的一個問題。但是隨著所有投資組合的變化，我們最喜歡的一種輸出是你們所做的盈虧平衡分析，隨之而來的維持資本。鑑於您現在已恢復支付全額現金稅，您能否在稅後基礎上向我們提供最新信息？

Yes, Doug, it's Dominic here. I can help with that a little bit. I mean, I'll just take you back to the numbers we showed in our 10-year plan. That all included tax modeling of course of the prices that we had there. So that we were -- that mid-cycle price, we were about $30 WTI breakeven. So the higher prices, obviously, we'd have a little bit higher taxes.

是的，道格，這裡是多米尼克。我可以提供一點幫助。我的意思是，我將帶您回到我們在 10 年計劃中顯示的數字。這當然包括我們在那裡的價格的稅收模型。所以我們是 - 週期中期的價格，我們大約是 30 美元的 WTI 盈虧平衡點。所以更高的價格，很明顯，我們會有更高的稅收。

But I think that demonstrates the competitiveness of the portfolio. So Bill, I don't know if you've got anything to add to that?

但我認為這表明了投資組合的競爭力。所以比爾，我不知道你有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. That's well said, Dominic.

不，說得好，多米尼克。

Our next question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Scott Hanold。

With proxy season coming up, could you guys talk a little bit about the shareholder proposition on your Scope 3 emissions? And where you all stand on that right now?

隨著代理季節的到來，你們能否談談股東對你們範圍 3 排放的提議？你們現在的立場是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Scott. It's Dominic again. So we have engaged very extensively with our shareholders on the resolution, as you would expect. So we've met with around half of our stockholder base, and that represents about 80% actually of our institutional investor base. So we'll have a lot more detail coming in our Proxy Statement.

是的。謝謝，斯科特。又是多米尼克。因此，正如您所期望的那樣，我們就該決議與我們的股東進行了非常廣泛的接觸。因此，我們會見了大約一半的股東基礎，這實際上代表了我們機構投資者基礎的 80% 左右。因此，我們將在我們的代理聲明中提供更多詳細信息。

But at a summary level, I would say we heard a lot of support for being the first U.S.-based oil and gas company to set a Paris-aligned net-zero ambition on our Scope 1 and 2 emissions and for the progress that we're making towards that. And that includes the $200 million capital allocation we announced for this year, which will go to our Scope 1 and 2 emission-reduction effort as well as some low-carbon business opportunities.

但總的來說，我想說我們聽到了很多支持，因為我們是第一家總部位於美國的石油和天然氣公司，在我們的範圍 1 和 2 排放方面設定了與巴黎一致的淨零目標，以及我們取得的進展。重新朝著那個方向發展。這包括我們今年宣布的 2 億美元資本分配，這將用於我們的範圍 1 和 2 減排工作以及一些低碳商業機會。

Our stockholders, with very few exceptions, did not express an expectation for ConocoPhillips as an E&P upstream-only company to set the Scope 3 target. And that's because there was really a general recognition that this would amount to really a prescribed shift of responsible Paris-aligned production to other less-accountable sources. And also the end-use emissions will only be addressed effectively, if all the many consumers across the value chain, industrial consumers, commercial consumers, retail consumers, that they also address their Scope 1 and 2 emissions.

我們的股東，除了極少數例外，沒有表示期望康菲石油公司作為一家僅限上游勘探與生產的公司來設定範圍 3 目標。那是因為人們確實普遍認識到，這實際上相當於將負責任的與巴黎一致的生產轉移到其他不太負責任的來源。而且，只有在價值鏈中的所有眾多消費者、工業消費者、商業消費者、零售消費者也解決其範圍 1 和 2 排放時，最終用途排放才會得到有效解決。

So -- but we also, we're able to emphasize that we are not ignoring Scope 3. We are continuing to actively advocate for an economy-wide price on carbon. Of course, that's so important to address both the supply side, but so important, the demand side. We're also engaging with our supply chain on their emissions and their reduction plans, and we're making some early-stage investments in low-carbon business opportunities that address end-use emissions. And of course, we've talked a lot about that, and we're pursuing those. That's carbon capture, storage and hydrogen.

所以——但我們也能夠強調，我們並沒有忽視範圍 3。我們將繼續積極倡導在整個經濟範圍內製定碳價格。當然，這對於解決供應方面非常重要，但對於需求方面也非常重要。我們還與我們的供應鏈就他們的排放和減排計劃進行合作，我們正在對解決最終用途排放的低碳商業機會進行一些早期投資。當然，我們已經談了很多，我們正在追求這些。那是碳捕獲、儲存和氫氣。

So we believe a Paris-aligned E&P company, with a focus on reliable, low GHG intensity and the low cost of supply production has a valuable and really, a crucial role to play in the energy transition. So of course, we are continuing in dialogue with our shareholders, but that's really an update as to how that dialogue has progressed.

因此，我們相信一家與巴黎結盟的勘探與生產公司，專注於可靠、低溫室氣體強度和低成本的供應生產，在能源轉型中發揮著寶貴且至關重要的作用。因此，當然，我們正在繼續與我們的股東進行對話，但這確實是關於對話進展情況的更新。

I appreciate that. That was very, very thorough. As a follow-up, can I ask on Norway? Obviously, you've got the Tor project online, and it seemed like gas volumes are very robust this quarter. Is that just it ramping up to full capacity? Or are you guys pulling some other dials, given the strength in prices for gas over there?

我很感激。那是非常非常徹底的。作為後續，我可以問挪威嗎？顯然，您已經將 Tor 項目上線，並且本季度的天然氣量似乎非常強勁。只是它正在滿負荷運轉嗎？或者，鑑於那裡的汽油價格強勁，你們是否正在拉其他一些撥盤？

Yes, Scott, this is Nick. Yes, we -- on Tor II, we did bring all the wells online in May of last year. That asset is producing as expected. And then we did a lot of work with our non-operated folks and just trying to make sure we maximize gas production through the end of 2021, and that's what you're seeing come through the bottom line.

是的，斯科特，這是尼克。是的，我們——在 Tor II 上，我們確實在去年 5 月將所有水井上線。該資產正在按預期生產。然後我們與我們的非運營人員做了很多工作，只是試圖確保我們在 2021 年底之前最大限度地提高天然氣產量，這就是你所看到的底線。

So yes, assets are performing well, Tor II as expected and some additional gas flowing through 2021.

所以是的，資產表現良好，Tor II 符合預期，2021 年還會有一些額外的天然氣流入。

Our next question comes from Phil Gresh from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Gresh。

My first question, just a bit of a follow-up on the activity levels planned for 2022. I hope you could elaborate a little bit more on the cadence and some of the moving pieces, particularly in the Big 3. In the press release, you gave some information on rig count and frac crews, but any additional color by basin and how you see things playing out as the year progresses?

我的第一個問題，只是對 2022 年計劃的活動水平的一點跟進。我希望你能詳細說明一下節奏和一些活動部分，特別是在 Big 3 中。在新聞稿中，你提供了一些關於鑽機數量和壓裂人員的信息，但是盆地的任何其他顏色以及你如何看待隨著時間的推移而發生的事情？

Phil, this is Tim again. The cadence of activity as we talked about before is kind of back-end weighted in the year. And it's cadence that we think will give us efficiency gains. But right now, we're at 20 drilling rigs and nine frac spreads, and we would add approximately four more drilling rigs in the Lower 48 throughout the balance of the year.

菲爾，我又是蒂姆。正如我們之前談到的那樣，活動的節奏在一年中是一種後端加權。我們認為節奏會給我們帶來效率提升。但現在，我們有 20 台鑽機和 9 台壓裂裝置，在今年餘下的時間裡，我們將在 Lower 48 增加大約 4 台鑽機。

One of those standing up in the Bakken, and I think the rest are in the Eagle Ford and the Permian. So it's kind of a measured pace and we are being very disciplined, and as we said in the last quarter, it's a constrained pace in the Permian. And we have lots of flexibility and capacity. But we think this is -- will give us the greatest efficiency.

其中一個站在巴肯，我認為其餘的人在鷹福特和二疊紀。所以這是一種有節制的步伐，我們非常有紀律，正如我們在上個季度所說的那樣，二疊紀的步伐受到限制。我們有很大的靈活性和能力。但我們認為這是——會給我們帶來最大的效率。

And I would add, Phil, what we talk a lot about is setting our scope early in the year with our teams and not wanting to whipsaw that scope. So just wanting to go execute it as efficiently as they possibly can. So on our operated scope, we want that to be -- we want them to know right at the beginning of the year what we expect them to go do and hope to execute that, that as Tim said, have flexibility.

我要補充一點，Phil，我們經常談論的是在年初與我們的團隊一起設定我們的範圍，而不是想對這個範圍進行洗牌。所以只是想盡可能高效地執行它。因此，在我們的運營範圍內，我們希望他們在年初就知道我們希望他們做什麼，並希望執行該任務，正如蒂姆所說，具有靈活性。

That makes sense. One just quick follow-up for Bill. Very much appreciate the cash flow color for 2022. I did have one follow-up question there. Do you have anything pending in the first quarter for Libya for income tax and royalty payments? One of your peers that operates there mentioned something on their call. And I presume your guidance would be kind of ex any working capital, of course, but just any clarification there.

這就說得通了。比爾的一個快速跟進。非常感謝 2022 年的現金流顏色。我確實有一個後續問題。對於利比亞的所得稅和特許權使用費，您在第一季度是否有任何未決事項？你在那里工作的一位同行在他們的電話中提到了一些事情。我認為你的指導當然是任何營運資金，但只是那裡的任何澄清。

Yes, sure, Phil. So on Libya, we're now current with our income tax payments in Libya and current through the month of January. I would expect that to continue through the year.

是的，當然，菲爾。因此，在利比亞，我們現在在利比亞繳納所得稅，並持續到 1 月份。我希望這種情況會持續到這一年。

Was there a particular payment in January?

一月份有沒有特別的付款？

There was. So we became current for the year on January. It's about $900 million was paid in January that was catching up on taxes from last year. That was shown in working capital as you look at our financials for the year. So not a surprise on that.

有。因此，我們在 1 月份成為了當年的最新消息。一月份支付了大約 9 億美元，以彌補去年的稅收。當您查看我們今年的財務狀況時，這體現在營運資金中。所以這並不奇怪。

Got it. And the guidance of $21 billion would be excluding that, right?

知道了。 210億美元的指導將不包括在內，對吧？

Correct, based on CFO.

正確，基於首席財務官。

Our next question comes from Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd。

Yes. Maybe if I could just -- a couple of detailed follow-ups. On the -- regarding the operating expense guidance of $7.3 billion for 2022, you mentioned a number of factors pushing that higher year-on-year. Maybe any rough breakdowns on roughly how much of that is coming from portfolio change versus two-, three-stream switch versus how much is driven by inflation?

是的。也許如果我可以 - 幾個詳細的後續行動。關於 - 關於 2022 年 73 億美元的運營費用指導，您提到了一些推動這一同比增長的因素。大概有多少來自投資組合變化與兩、三流轉換與多少是由通貨膨脹驅動的，也許有任何粗略的細分？

Ryan, it's Dominic again here. Thanks for the question. Yes. So just to sort of provide a little bit of context here, I think, remember that last -- Q3 last year, we achieved a $6 billion run rate target we set when we announced our acquisition of Concho and now that was a $1 billion improvement to our cost structure versus the 2019 pro forma adjusted op costs of $7 billion. So we're continuing to benefit from that. That's been a major advantage from the transaction and through the work we've done over the last couple of years.

瑞恩，這裡又是多米尼克。謝謝你的問題。是的。因此，在這裡提供一點背景信息，我想，請記住去年第三季度，我們實現了我們在宣布收購 Concho 時設定的 60 億美元運行率目標，現在提高了 10 億美元我們的成本結構與 2019 年備考調整後的運營成本 70 億美元相比。因此，我們將繼續從中受益。這是交易和我們過去幾年所做工作的主要優勢。

As we look this year, so obviously, we've increased, we've said $7.3 billion and that's really -- that's from incorporating our Shell Permian assets, obviously. We've got costs that come with those properties, converting historical Concho production from two- to three-stream. We've got some impact of that and we do have some anticipated inflation.

正如我們今年所看到的，很明顯，我們已經增加了，我們已經說過 73 億美元，這確實是 - 這顯然是來自合併我們的殼牌二疊紀資產。我們有這些屬性帶來的成本，將歷史上的 Concho 生產從兩流轉換為三流。我們對此產生了一些影響，並且我們確實有一些預期的通貨膨脹。

I would say in terms of general breakdown, I would say about half of the increase is from the Shell Permian and the other -- the Concho production two- to three-stream accounting and the anticipated inflation would represent the rest, about equally split, something like that. So -- but we're very pleased with the progress we've made on our costs, so.

我會說，就一般細分而言，我會說大約一半的增長來自殼牌二疊紀和另一個——康喬生產的兩到三流會計，而預期的通貨膨脹將代表其餘的，大約平分，類似的東西。所以 - 但我們對我們在成本方面取得的進展感到非常滿意，所以。

And I would put that a little bit in context, Ryan, too, we were -- just a reminder that kind of pro forma Concho, we were at about the $7-ish billion level and we had 1.5 million barrels a day of production. So we're at that kind of level now at 1.8 million barrels a day of production for 2022. So I just want to put some context around sort of where we've come and where we're at.

我想把它放在上下文中，瑞安，我們也是 - 只是提醒那種備考康喬，我們的產量約為 7 億美元左右，我們每天有 150 萬桶的產量。所以我們現在處於這樣的水平，2022 年的日產量為 180 萬桶。所以我只想介紹一下我們的來龍去脈和所處的位置。

That's very helpful. Maybe one follow-up on realizations. I mean realizations continue to trend towards relative highs across much of your mix, and we appreciate the slide that you've included in the deck. Any thoughts on what you may be doing as an organization that's helping to drive that? And looking forward, is that something that we should expect to continue? Or should we expect those to widen back out at some point going forward?

這很有幫助。也許是對認識的跟進。我的意思是，在你的大部分組合中，實現繼續趨向於相對高的趨勢，我們感謝你在套牌中包含的幻燈片。作為一個有助於推動這一目標的組織，你有什麼想法嗎？展望未來，這是我們應該期待繼續的事情嗎？還是我們應該期望這些在未來的某個時候擴大？

Yes. Sure, Ryan, this is Bill. Looking at our realizations in the supplementary data, total realizations as a percentage of Brent, you'll notice that they increased to 82% versus in fourth quarter versus 77% in the third quarter. And that's really driven by a 45% increase in Henry Hub and about a 120% increase to our gas prices in Europe versus just a 9% increase in Brent. So it's that relative outperformance by those that are driving that percent of overall realizations.

是的。當然，瑞恩，這是比爾。查看我們在補充數據中的實現，總實現佔布倫特原油的百分比，您會注意到它們與第四季度相比增加到 82%，而第三季度為 77%。這實際上是由亨利港上漲 45% 和我們在歐洲的天然氣價格上漲約 120% 推動的，而布倫特原油僅上漲 9%。因此，推動整體實現百分比的那些相對出色的表現。

I'd say on our crude realizations, those continue to remain strong. They're all within historical ranges. As you go through there, I would expect those to continue as we go through the year, particularly as we continue to optimize our deliveries there. And then gas realizations is really the one that you saw the big change on.

我想說的是，根據我們粗略的認識，這些繼續保持強勁。它們都在歷史範圍內。當你經歷那裡時，我希望這些在我們度過這一年時會繼續下去，特別是當我們繼續優化我們在那裡的交付時。然後氣體實現真的是你看到巨大變化的那個。

This shouldn't be a surprise to folks. The change here on Lower 48 really was, as our gas realizations move back to kind of the 90% level versus 115%, that's primarily driven by conversion of the Concho volumes from two- to three-stream that we signaled on the third-quarter call. It's in line with what we were expecting. So I would expect that what you're seeing as realizations here for fourth quarter are pretty good indication of where we expect to be.

這對人們來說應該不足為奇。 Lower 48 的變化確實是，隨著我們的天然氣實現從 115% 回到 90% 的水平，這主要是由於我們在第三季度發出的信號將 Concho 體積從二流轉換為三流稱呼。這符合我們的預期。所以我希望你在這裡看到的第四季度的實現很好地表明了我們的預期。

Our next question comes from Josh Silverstein from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Josh Silverstein。

Just had a question on the asset divestitures, the $4 billion to $5 billion there. As they start coming in, are the proceeds going right to debt reduction? Or could this potentially accelerate the return of capital profile, whether it be via the buyback or dividend? I asked because that -- you have about $1.2 billion of short-term debt, but I don't think there's a lot of big maturities over the next few years.

剛剛有一個關於資產剝離的問題，那裡的 40 億到 50 億美元。當他們開始進入時，收益是否會用於減債？或者這可能會加速資本狀況的回報，無論是通過回購還是通過股息？我問是因為——你有大約 12 億美元的短期債務，但我認為未來幾年不會有很多大額到期。

No, it's pretty ratable maturities. Over the next few years, I can have -- Bill can give you the specifics on that. But no, I think cash is cash, Josh, we look at the cash flow that's coming in and we looked at the proceeds that we're getting in as well. And I think if you look at our past history, we've been sharing pretty significant percentage of both our cash and our proceeds back with our shareholder on an annual basis. So it's all fungible cash.

不，這是相當可評價的到期日。在接下來的幾年裡，我可以——比爾可以給你具體的信息。但是不，我認為現金就是現金，喬希，我們關注的是流入的現金流，我們也關注了我們獲得的收益。而且我認為，如果您查看我們過去的歷史，我們每年都會與股東分享相當大比例的現金和收益。所以這都是可替代的現金。

And we watch the balance sheet as well. We have a $5 billion gross debt-reduction target, and we're on track, and Bill can maybe provide a little bit of color on that with respect to the balance sheet.

我們也關注資產負債表。我們有一個 50 億美元的總債務削減目標，我們正在走上正軌，比爾也許可以在資產負債表方面提供一些色彩。

Sure, Ryan. Yes, we're right on track to achieving our $15 billion gross debt target by 2026. And as you noted, we do have some debt maturing this year, about $800 million of debt. We're expecting to repay that when it matures. And then as we've said previously, we're looking at potential debt refinancing, and that would depend on multiple factors, including cost to retire and cost to issue new debt and how we decide to manage that overall portfolio.

當然，瑞恩。是的，我們有望在 2026 年實現 150 億美元的總債務目標。正如你所指出的，我們今年確實有一些債務到期，大約 8 億美元的債務。我們希望在它成熟時償還它。然後正如我們之前所說，我們正在研究潛在的債務再融資，這將取決於多種因素，包括退休成本和發行新債務的成本以及我們決定如何管理整個投資組合。

We're looking at those factors and you could expect to see us act sometime relatively soon to take advantage of that supportive market if all things stay where they've been at. And as Ryan pointed out, we don't mind putting cash on the balance sheet.

我們正在研究這些因素，如果一切都保持原狀，您可能會期望看到我們在某個相對較快的時間採取行動，以利用這個支持性市場。正如瑞安指出的那樣，我們不介意將現金放在資產負債表上。

Got you. Just a question on the asset base and the portfolio mix. You're increasing your position in APLNG. It's an asset that you already have a stake in. But how do you think about COP's position within the global gas market? And is this an area of the portfolio where you may want to get bigger, given what's happening with Europe and Asia prices?

得到你。只是關於資產基礎和投資組合組合的問題。你正在增加你在 APLNG 的職位。這是您已經擁有股份的資產。但是您如何看待 COP 在全球天然氣市場中的地位？鑑於歐洲和亞洲的價格正在發生什麼，這是您可能希望擴大投資組合的一個領域嗎？

Well, I mean we're pretty longer-term, we're bullish on LNG prices, both in Europe and Asia, given the trend the energy transition and what the planet is going to be going through and the role that gas is going to play on that. So yes, that informs some of our decision to preempt on the sale of some of the APLNG assets. It's why we're interested in the North Field expansion in Qatar. It's LNG that services both Europe and Asia, and then looking at what role we play in terms of that here in the U.S. as well.

好吧，我的意思是我們是相當長期的，我們看好歐洲和亞洲的液化天然氣價格，考慮到能源轉型的趨勢以及地球將要經歷的事情以及天然氣將要扮演的角色玩那個。所以，是的，這表明我們決定先發製人地出售一些 APLNG 資產。這就是我們對卡塔爾北部油田擴建感興趣的原因。為歐洲和亞洲提供服務的是液化天然氣，然後看看我們在美國發揮的作用。

That's the beauty of our cost of supply model. It's kind of indifferent to gas and oil. And if we see a structural advantage to gas developing over the next few years, it will show up in our cost of supply model and will attract additional investment. But that's the basis -- again, the basis and the foundation for how we allocate capital, whether it's geographically or by product type or by geology.

這就是我們的供應成本模型的美妙之處。它對天然氣和石油有點冷漠。如果我們看到未來幾年天然氣開發的結構性優勢，它將體現在我們的供應成本模型中，並會吸引額外的投資。但這就是基礎——再一次，我們如何分配資本的基礎和基礎，無論是在地理上、產品類型還是地質上。

Our next question is from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Ryan, that maybe there is a little bit detail, but in -- from the fourth to the first quarter, it seems that you're going to add Shell, which the production, say, call it 175 to 200. Alaska production is also going to be higher. So seems like without other offset, the first-quarter production should be higher than your guidance.

瑞恩，也許有一點細節，但是從第四季度到第一季度，您似乎要添加殼牌，例如，生產將其稱為 175 到 200。阿拉斯加的生產也是會更高。所以似乎沒有其他補償，第一季度的產量應該高於你的指導。

I noted that, I mean, we assume that the Permian legacy production will also be somewhat higher. So I mean, where the offset that in order for the first quarter production guidance to come down to the [1.75 to 1.79]?

我注意到，我的意思是，我們假設二疊紀的遺留產量也會更高一些。所以我的意思是，為了使第一季度的生產指導下降到 [1.75 到 1.79]，抵消了哪裡？

The second question is just -- I mean, it's not such a big deal, but I think you and Total is going to take over the Shell interest in Libya. You already have the ownership there. But given the really high tax regime over there and also that the political volatility, just want to understand the rationale behind why that kind of M&A will be interested to you?

第二個問題是——我的意思是，這沒什麼大不了的，但我認為你和道達爾將接管殼牌在利比亞的利益。您已經擁有那裡的所有權。但是考慮到那裡的高稅收制度以及政治動盪，只是想了解為什麼這種併購會引起您的興趣？

Yes, let me go production-first, and I can have Dominic add a little bit of color to it as well. I think what -- Paul, at a high level, I'm not worried about production at all. We're going to be just fine. It's -- as Tim described earlier, it's a bit of a back-end ramp in our Lower 48, that's always going to be lumpy on a quarter-by-quarter basis depending on when you get the frac spreads out to complete the wells and when they come online.

是的，讓我先生產，我也可以讓 Dominic 為其添加一點顏色。我認為——保羅，在高水平上，我根本不擔心生產。我們會很好的。它是 - 正如蒂姆之前描述的那樣，在我們的 48 號下游，它有點像後端坡道，根據你何時將壓裂展開以完成油井和當他們上線時。

What's probably missing from people, there's a planned turnaround in Qatar in the first quarter that wasn't in the fourth quarter. So there's a few ins and outs with respect to that. So I think that's maybe around the edges why if you're looking at just sequential production from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, you might see a little bit of differences.

人們可能缺少的是，卡塔爾在第一季度計劃好轉，而在第四季度則沒有。所以在這方面有一些來龍去脈。所以我認為這可能是邊緣，為什麼如果你只看從第四季度到第一季度的連續生產，你可能會看到一些差異。

On your -- to the Libya question, Paul, it's -- we were approached. It's not like Hess wanted out of Libya and its partnership after Total bought Marathon's interest. It remained Total, ConocoPhillips and Hess as the 2P parties in the venture in Libya. We were approached and said, would we want to participate with Total to take -- pick up the Hess interest in there, and it's a pretty good deal.

關於你的——關於利比亞的問題，保羅，它是——我們接觸過。在道達爾收購馬拉鬆的利益之後，赫斯並不想離開利比亞及其合作夥伴關係。它仍然是道達爾、康菲石油和赫斯作為利比亞合資企業的 2P 方。我們被聯繫並說，我們是否想與道達爾一起參與 - 在那裡獲得赫斯的興趣，這是一個相當不錯的交易。

Take all your points. It's relatively low-margin. It's a contract that is just a gross-margin contract. We recognize that, but the deal was quite attractive on a cost of supply basis for us. And frankly, we'd like to control who the partnership is, not necessarily interested in an outside partner coming in to take some of that. And then clearly, with Total and ConocoPhillips in Libya, there may be some opportunity to have some different kinds of conversations with the Libyans going forward.

把你所有的分數。它的利潤率相對較低。這是一份只是毛利合同的合同。我們認識到這一點，但從供應成本的角度來看，這筆交易對我們來說非常有吸引力。坦率地說，我們想控制合作夥伴是誰，不一定對外部合作夥伴進來接受其中的一部分感興趣。然後很明顯，在利比亞，道達爾和康菲石油公司可能有機會與利比亞人進行一些不同類型的對話。

Our next question is from Bob Brackett from Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Bob Brackett。

If I think about that U.S. growth rate of 0.8 million to 0.9 million barrels a day and the lion's share of that being in the Permian, you can start to see the day where Permian gas takeaway gets exhausted. How do you guys think about your gas takeaway to meet your growth targets? And how do you see the whole basin shaking out?

如果我考慮一下美國每天 80 萬至 90 萬桶的增長率，其中大部分是在二疊紀，你可以開始看到二疊紀天然氣外賣耗盡的那一天。你們如何看待您的天然氣外賣以實現您的增長目標？你怎麼看整個盆地都在搖晃？

Yes, I can start and anybody else can chime in, Bill. With our commercial team is, we're all over this, Bob. And yes, we see the potential for some of that, I guess, I think we're in really good shape based on the position that we have and the infrastructure we have. We can evacuate gas south, we can go west. And we can come into the Katy hub and into the Gulf Coast as well.

是的，我可以開始，其他任何人都可以加入，比爾。有了我們的商業團隊，我們就完蛋了，鮑勃。是的，我們看到了其中一些潛力，我想，我認為基於我們擁有的位置和我們擁有的基礎設施，我們的狀態非常好。我們可以向南疏散天然氣，我們可以向西走。我們也可以進入凱蒂樞紐和墨西哥灣沿岸。

So -- but we're watching it pretty closely because we've got to make sure industry-wide, we don't go back to flaring as an industry and all those kinds of things. So we've got to build the gas infrastructure and offtake capacity has to be there to support these macro offtakes in the oil side coming out of the broader Permian Basin. And maybe I can have Bill add a little bit of color from our commercial team.

所以 - 但我們正在密切關注它，因為我們必須確保在整個行業範圍內，我們不會回到作為一個行業的燃燒和所有這些事情。因此，我們必須建設天然氣基礎設施，並且必須具備承購能力，以支持從更廣泛的二疊紀盆地出來的石油方面的這些宏觀承購。也許我可以讓比爾從我們的商業團隊中添加一點色彩。

Yes, sure, Ryan. You're exactly right, Bob, that watching the takeaway capacity out of the Permian Basin is something that's important to do, particularly as more production is coming on and particularly as associated gas starts ramping up, we're probably a couple of years away before you start hitting that capacity, but it's important to keep an eye on.

是的，當然，瑞恩。鮑勃，你是對的，觀察二疊紀盆地的外賣能力是一件很重要的事情，特別是隨著更多的生產即將到來，特別是隨著相關天然氣開始增加，我們可能還需要幾年的時間在你開始達到這個容量之前，但重要的是要密切注意。

I think as we look at a couple of things to note. First, we are currently moving several multiples of what our current production is across the Permian Basin. We've got a very skilled commercial organization in terms of how we move that volume, so we have flow assurance for ConocoPhillips production.

我認為當我們看一些需要注意的事情時。首先，我們目前正在將我們當前產量的幾倍移動到二疊紀盆地。我們有一個非常熟練的商業組織來處理我們如何移動該數量，因此我們為康菲石油公司的生產提供流量保證。

And then you've seen in the market, there's been a couple of recent proposed pipelines coming out that would put additional takeaway capacity both down to kind of the Corpus Christi area and the Houston area. I think those are going to be important to keep an eye on as we look at where the market goes. But flow assurance is something we definitely keep an eye on for our physical production.

然後你在市場上看到，最近有幾條提議的管道出現，這將把額外的外賣能力降低到科珀斯克里斯蒂地區和休斯頓地區。我認為當我們觀察市場走向時，這些將很重要。但是流量保證是我們在實際生產中絕對關注的事情。

Great. A quick follow-up. What's your appetite or philosophy around revisiting the capital program in sort of mid-year results?

偉大的。快速跟進。您對在年中業績中重新審視資本計劃有何興趣或理念？

Well, we watch it every month, every day, Bob. And so we're looking at the inflationary pressures that might be in the system. We're looking at what our partners are balloting us for, what the operated by other activity level. And certainly, they see these kinds of prices and that pressure on the OBO spend is there. So we look at that every year. Obviously, we can impact that through our operated scope, should we choose to go do that. But again, we like the steady program nature on our operated scope.

好吧，我們每個月，每天都看，鮑勃。因此，我們正在研究系統中可能存在的通脹壓力。我們正在查看我們的合作夥伴投票支持我們的目的，以及其他活動級別的操作。當然，他們看到了這樣的價格，而且 OBO 支出的壓力是存在的。所以我們每年都會看。顯然，如果我們選擇這樣做，我們可以通過我們的操作範圍來影響它。但同樣，我們喜歡我們操作範圍內穩定的程序性質。

So I guess the message as we watch it, absolutely, and we've got lots of levers in the toolbox to manage to an outcome, should we choose to go do that. But that will be conversations and things that will come on the next couple of quarterly calls as we kind of watch the macro, watch the activity level, watch the inflationary forces that might be out there and what sort of offsets that we're seeing on the efficiency side because as we integrate the Shell assets into the portfolio that Tim talked about, we still have those opportunities as well.

所以我猜我們觀看的信息，絕對是，我們在工具箱中有很多槓桿來管理結果，我們是否應該選擇這樣做。但這將是接下來幾個季度電話會議上的對話和事情，因為我們會觀察宏觀，觀察活動水平，觀察可能存在的通貨膨脹力量以及我們正在看到什麼樣的抵消效率方面，因為當我們將殼牌資產整合到蒂姆談到的投資組合中時，我們仍然擁有這些機會。

So there's a lot -- there's a number of moving parts, but absolutely, we'll be all over it and update the market as necessary through the remaining quarters.

所以有很多 - 有許多移動部件，但絕對，我們會全力以赴，並在剩餘的幾個季度根據需要更新市場。

Our next question comes from John Freeman from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 John Freeman。

The first question I had was just a follow-up on the inflation topic, just to make sure I understand what's kind of built in on the guidance. So the couple of hundred million dollars that you've got in the budget for inflation, is -- can you give us some idea like pretty much almost all of what you would have from a service cost inflation standpoint, is that locked in? Or are there certain items that as you go through the year, you're still exposed to I guess, "the spot market for certain items?"

我的第一個問題只是對通貨膨脹主題的跟進，只是為了確保我了解指南的內置內容。因此，您在通貨膨脹預算中獲得的幾億美元是--您能否給我們一些想法，例如從服務成本通貨膨脹的角度來看，幾乎所有您將擁有的東西，是否已鎖定？或者，當你度過這一年時，你是否仍然接觸到“某些物品的現貨市場”？

No, we're not fully locked in on that side in the service side. So we are exposed like most everybody is to what you describe as spot condition or what's happening in the service side of the industry. And again, it's predominantly in four or five categories of spend. Those are the ones that we watch pretty closely.

不，我們沒有完全鎖定在服務方面。因此，我們像大多數人一樣暴露於您所描述的現場狀況或行業服務方面正在發生的事情。再說一次，它主要是在四五類支出中。這些是我們密切關注的。

Interestingly, OTCG started at $1,000 a ton, went to $2,000, has now come back down to $1,300, so for rolled steel. And we get updates frequently from our supply chain organization, chemicals because they -- a lot of them originate out of Europe, are up right now with the supply chain constraints that are in that.

有趣的是，OTCG 從每噸 1,000 美元開始，到 2,000 美元，現在又回落到 1,300 美元，軋鋼也是如此。我們經常從我們的供應鏈組織那裡獲得更新，化學品，因為它們 - 其中很多來自歐洲，現在已經受到供應鏈限制。

So -- and then local kind of impacts with trucking and labor, sand and some of those things, we watch them pretty closely. But they're probably inflating a bit more, as I said earlier, than what we would have thought just eight weeks ago, when we put out our capital guidance for the year. We've included some inflation, to your point, and we're watching that because we're also generating efficiencies as a company, and we'll update that as the year progresses.

所以——然後是卡車運輸和勞動力、沙子和其中一些東西的局部影響，我們非常密切地觀察它們。但正如我之前所說，它們的膨脹程度可能比我們在八週前發布今年的資本指導時所想像的要高一些。就您的觀點而言，我們已經包含了一些通貨膨脹，我們正在關注這一點，因為我們也在提高公司的效率，我們將隨著時間的推移對其進行更新。

And so Ryan, is there -- I know at least there's a few of your peers that will put out slides that say, well, x percent of our service items are sort of locked in for a given year. I mean is there any ballpark kind of round number you could use in terms of what's locked in versus what's still exposed?

瑞安，是嗎 - 我知道至少有一些同行會發布幻燈片，說，我們的服務項目中有 x% 被鎖定在特定年份。我的意思是，根據鎖定的內容與仍然暴露的內容，您可以使用任何近似的整數嗎？

No, I don't. We'd have to get back with you on that, John. You cut out on the first part of your question, sorry, but you could have a follow-up.

不，我沒有。約翰，我們必須與你聯繫。你在問題的第一部分刪掉了，對不起，但你可以跟進。

Yes, sure. And then just the last question for me, just thinking about maybe a longer-term perspective. When we look at the three tiers where you all have been sort of returning returns to shareholders, if you kind of exclude the Cenovus share sales and you just sort of look at kind of your base cash flow, you've kind of had that ordinary dividend and the buybacks have sort of been relatively kind of equal and then anything you get incremental has gone to the VROC.

是的，當然。然後是我的最後一個問題，只是考慮一個更長遠的觀點。當我們看看你們都在向股東返還回報的三個層次時，如果你排除 Cenovus 的股票銷售，而你只是看看你的基本現金流，你就有了那種普通的股息和回購有點相對相等，然後你獲得的任何增量都去了 VROC。

Do you think of like Tier 1 and Tier 2 is that's kind of the framework that you like when you sort of think about, I don't know, your 10-year plan or something, where those are relatively kind of equal? Or do you see those kind of shifting over time?

你認為第 1 層和第 2 層是那種你喜歡的框架，當你想，我不知道，你的 10 年計劃之類的東西，它們在哪裡是相對平等的？或者你是否看到隨著時間的推移而發生這種變化？

Well, we don't necessarily think of it as equal look at that. We actually think about what's an affordable ordinary dividend through the bottom end of the cycle. We want to make sure that we can -- it's affordable, it's reliable, it's transparent, it's growable and it's competitive with the S&P 500.

好吧，我們不一定認為它是平等看待的。我們實際上在考慮在周期的底端什麼是負擔得起的普通股息。我們希望確保我們能夠——它負擔得起、可靠、透明、可增長並且與標準普爾 500 指數具有競爭力。

So we look at the ordinary dividend and we think about it at the bottom end of the cycle. But we also have our view of the mid-cycle price and some combination of dividend and repurchasing our shares at what we believe is a mid-cycle price is what we'd like to be able to do for our shareholders and more importantly, make sure that it represents at least 30% of our cash going back to the shareholder. And in our mid-cycle price, the combination of those two things does that in the kind of proportions that you described.

因此，我們著眼於普通股息，並在周期的底部考慮它。但我們也對周期中期價格以及股息和以我們認為周期中期價格回購我們的股票的某種組合有我們的看法，這是我們希望能夠為我們的股東做的事情，更重要的是，使確保它至少占我們返還給股東的現金的 30%。在我們的周期中期價格中，這兩件事的結合以您所描述的比例實現了這一點。

But -- and then on top of that, we recognize the torque that we have to the upside with these higher commodity prices, and we're doing this -- we're swapping into the Cenovus shares. And the strength of the Cenovus share price has allowed us to swap into more ConocoPhillips shares, which will be complete in the first quarter of this year. So all that kind of weighs in. And what's left to hit our 30% target and above is coming through that third tier that we introduced last year called the VROC, which is a cash variable return back to the shareholders.

但是 - 然後最重要的是，我們認識到這些更高的商品價格我們必須向上的扭矩，我們正在這樣做 - 我們正在交換 Cenovus 股票。 Cenovus 股價的強勢使我們能夠換入更多的康菲石油股票，這將在今年第一季度完成。所以所有這些都很重要。剩下的要達到我們 30% 及以上的目標是通過我們去年推出的第三層 VROC，這是一種返還給股東的現金可變回報。

So that's how we're using it. We think the three-tiered system is durable, it's reliable and it recognizes the reality of the volatility that we're seeing in this business. And so that's why we put a three-tiered system together. We like ratably buying our shares through the cycles, and we think they're still a good deal. And we like an ordinary dividend that's predictable and reliable.

這就是我們使用它的方式。我們認為三層系統是耐用的，它是可靠的，它認識到我們在這個業務中看到的波動的現實。這就是我們將三層系統放在一起的原因。我們喜歡在周期內按比例購買我們的股票，我們認為它們仍然是一筆划算的交易。我們喜歡可預測且可靠的普通股息。

And we like -- we want to recognize that we've got a lot of torque to the upside and shareholders deserve a significant amount of that cash over 30% at least or more in these upcycles like we're experiencing today.

而且我們喜歡 - 我們希望認識到我們有很大的上行動力，在我們今天所經歷的這些上升週期中，股東應該得到至少超過 30% 或更多的大量現金。

Our last question comes from Neal Dingmann from Truist Securities.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

Just one last -- I guess, two quick ones, if I could. Just, again, it's notable the amount of cash you all are kicking off, obviously. And my question is given the returns and the cash you're kicking off, why not -- and I know you guys have been opposed to this, but why not maybe lock in some of this with at least collars or something along that nature?

最後一個——我猜，兩個快速的，如果可以的話。只是，再一次，值得注意的是，你們所有人都開始投入大量現金。我的問題是考慮到你開始的回報和現金，為什麼不 - 我知道你們一直反對這一點，但為什麼不至少用衣領或類似性質的東西來鎖定其中的一些？

Yes, we're unhedged, Neal. We think shareholders buy our shares because of the upside that it represents in the commodity price and the torque that we have to the upside in the way we set up the company. So no, we're -- we prefer to remain unhedged, and frankly, hedging would do little help.

是的，我們沒有對沖，尼爾。我們認為股東購買我們的股票是因為它在商品價格中所代表的上行空間以及我們在建立公司的方式中所具有的上行空間。所以不，我們是——我們更願意保持未對沖，坦率地說，對沖無濟於事。

So we have a very strong balance sheet, which helps us on the downside and shareholders ought to expect full exposure to the upside that we're experiencing to date.

因此，我們有一個非常強大的資產負債表，這有助於我們應對下行風險，股東們應該期待我們迄今為止所經歷的全面風險敞口。

No, great point. Okay. And then just lastly on divestitures. Tim mentioned, I know you've done a couple of small ones. My sort of two questions around that. Is there anything sort of -- that you'd sort of considered noncore that might be in that sort of near-term divestiture category? And then secondly, why even do -- and given how strong your balance sheet is now, is there -- does it -- the requirement to put it in the non-sort of core, does that make it more difficult and less likely to sell, given how strong the balance sheet is?

不，很好。好的。最後是資產剝離。蒂姆提到，我知道你已經做了幾個小的。我的兩個問題。有沒有什麼——你會認為是非核心的，可能屬於那種近期的資產剝離類別？其次，為什麼還要這樣做——考慮到你的資產負債表現在有多強大，是否存在——是否需要將其置於非核心業務中，這是否會使其變得更加困難且不太可能考慮到資產負債表有多強，賣出？

No, not really. We just want to take advantage of the strong markets we're seeing today, and we recognize that we've made two pretty transformational transactions over the course of the last year, and it's raised the bar in our whole company on cost of supply. So there's things that we're probably not going to invest in that we recognize others will invest in.

不，不是。我們只是想利用我們今天看到的強勁市場，我們認識到我們在過去一年中進行了兩筆相當具有變革性的交易，這提高了我們整個公司在供應成本方面的標準。所以有些事情我們可能不會投資，但我們認識到其他人會投資。

So we -- that's been part of our mantra and our drumbeat for the last 10 years in this company. So we're constantly trying to high-grade the portfolio. And we see -- again, we see some more opportunities to do that across the Lower 48, primarily the Permian as we think about what's going to be competitive in the current portfolio.

所以我們——在這家公司過去 10 年裡，這一直是我們口頭禪和鼓點的一部分。所以我們一直在努力提高投資組合的檔次。而且我們看到 - 再次，我們看到了在下 48 年這樣做的更多機會，主要是二疊紀，因為我們考慮在當前的投資組合中將具有競爭力。

Thank you. I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Mark.

謝謝你。我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。我想把電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, Zanera. And thanks to all who dialed in for today's call. And Zanera, I'll pass it back to you for your wrap-up. Thank you.

謝謝你，扎內拉。感謝所有撥入今天電話的人。還有 Zanera，我會把它傳給你，讓你總結一下。謝謝你。

Thank you. And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。