康菲 (COP) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Q2 2022 ConocoPhillips Earnings Conference Call. My name is Richard, and I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Mark Keener, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Keener, you may begin.

    歡迎參加 2022 年第二季度康菲石油公司收益電話會議。我的名字是理查德,我將成為你今天電話的接線員。 (操作員說明)我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Mark Keener。基納先生,你可以開始了。

  • Mark Keener - VP of IR

    Mark Keener - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Richard, and welcome to everyone joining us for our second-quarter earnings call. First, let me introduce the members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team taking part in today's call. We have Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Bill Bullock, EVP and Chief Financial Officer; Dominic Macklon, EVP of Strategy, Sustainability and Technology; Nick Olds, EVP of Global Operations; Jack Harper, EVP of Lower 48; and Tim Leach, Adviser to the CEO.

    謝謝你,理查德,歡迎大家加入我們的第二季度財報電話會議。首先,讓我介紹一下參加今天電話會議的康菲領導團隊的成員。我們有董事長兼首席執行官 Ryan Lance; Bill Bullock,執行副總裁兼首席財務官; Dominic Macklon,戰略、可持續發展和技術執行副總裁; Nick Olds,全球運營執行副總裁;傑克·哈珀,Lower 48 執行副總裁;和首席執行官顧問 Tim Leach。

  • On the call, Ryan and Bill will provide some opening comments, after which the team is available to take your questions.

    在電話會議上,Ryan 和 Bill 將提供一些開場白,然後團隊可以回答您的問題。

  • Before I turn it over to them, just a few quick reminders. In conjunction with this morning's press release, we posted supplemental materials that include second-quarter earnings results and highlights, earnings and cash flow summaries, price realizations and sensitivities for estimating earnings and cash flow, and updated guidance for the third quarter and full year. During the call, we'll make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Of course, actual results may differ due to the factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings.

    在我把它交給他們之前,只是一些快速的提醒。結合今天上午的新聞稿,我們發布了補充材料,包括第二季度收益結果和亮點、收益和現金流摘要、價格實現和估計收益和現金流的敏感性,以及第三季度和全年的更新指導。在電話會議期間,我們將根據當前的預期做出前瞻性陳述。當然,由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中提到的因素,實際結果可能會有所不同。

  • And finally, we'll make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in this morning's release and on our website.

    最後,我們今天將參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。可以在今天上午的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到與最接近的相應 GAAP 措施的對賬。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Ryan.

    有了這個,我會把它交給瑞恩。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, thank you, Mark. And for those -- Mark has elected to retire. So I want to start off by really thanking him for more than 30 years of dedicated service to our company and wish him well in retirement.

    好吧,謝謝你,馬克。對於那些——馬克已經選擇退休。因此,我想首先感謝他 30 多年來為我們公司所做的奉獻,並祝愿他退休後一切順利。

  • And at the same time, I'd like to warmly welcome Phil Gresh, who will be joining our team next month as Vice President of Investor Relations.

    同時,我要熱烈歡迎 Phil Gresh,他將於下個月加入我們的團隊,擔任投資者關係副總裁。

  • Now before I get into the results for the quarter, I'd also like to touch on a few things that continue to be top of mind for us. The ongoing tragic invasion in Ukraine and the residual implications from COVID have significantly impacted supply chains around the world, with shock waves driving both product shortages and elevated levels of volatility, including large swings in commodity prices. The combination of these factors has brought into sharp focus the critical importance of U.S. and global energy security and reliability.

    現在,在我了解本季度的結果之前,我還想談談我們仍然最關心的一些事情。烏克蘭持續發生的悲劇性入侵以及 COVID 的殘餘影響對全球供應鏈產生了重大影響,衝擊波推動了產品短缺和波動性加劇,包括大宗商品價格的大幅波動。這些因素的結合使美國和全球能源安全和可靠性的重要性成為焦點。

  • By fulfilling our Triple Mandate of responsibly and reliably meeting energy transition pathway demand, delivering competitive returns on and of capital and progressing toward achieving our net-zero operational emissions ambition, we're playing a key role in providing secure, dependable energy solutions that are clearly needed around the globe.

    通過履行我們以負責任和可靠的方式滿足能源轉型路徑需求、提供具有競爭力的資本回報以及朝著實現淨零運營排放目標邁進的三重使命,我們在提供安全、可靠的能源解決方案方面發揮著關鍵作用,這些解決方案是全球範圍內顯然需要。

  • The guiding principles of our Triple Mandate were key to our recent actions and announcements regarding global LNG supply capacity, as the use of natural gas in place of coal and refined products represents an opportunity for significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions around the world. We believe this reality is going to drive increasingly strong global LNG demand and related opportunities well into the future.

    我們的三重授權的指導原則是我們最近就全球液化天然氣供應能力採取的行動和公告的關鍵,因為使用天然氣代替煤炭和精煉產品代表著在全球範圍內顯著減少溫室氣體排放的機會。我們相信這一現實將在未來推動日益強勁的全球液化天然氣需求和相關機遇。

  • As recently announced, we entered into an HOA with Sempra for a possible investment in the Port Arthur LNG project that's currently underway. The potential investment is designed to leverage our company's considerable strength as one of the largest gas producers and marketers in North America, while expanding our global LNG business. This potential investment is expected to be project financed and, if executed, would afford us the opportunity to participate in additional strategically located LNG projects as well as to jointly pursue related emissions reduction opportunities.

    正如最近宣布的那樣,我們與 Sempra 簽訂了一項 HOA,以可能對目前正在進行的亞瑟港液化天然氣項目進行投資。潛在投資旨在利用我們公司作為北美最大的天然氣生產商和營銷商之一的強大實力,同時擴大我們的全球液化天然氣業務。這項潛在的投資預計將由項目融資,如果執行,我們將有機會參與其他戰略定位的液化天然氣項目,並共同尋求相關的減排機會。

  • That announcement followed our recently completed 10% ownership increase in APLNG, as well as our selection to participate in Qatar's North Field East project, adding to our long, positive relationship with QatarEnergy. Our recent decision to join the OGMP 2.0 initiative is also in service to achieving our Triple Mandate, as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including methane is an imperative for our company and our sector. Applying the rigorous OGMP 2.0 reporting standard, which incorporates third-party verification, will be a vital step on our path to net-zero operational emissions.

    該公告發布之前,我們最近完成了 APLNG 10% 的所有權增加,以及我們選擇參與卡塔爾的 North Field East 項目,增加了我們與卡塔爾能源公司的長期積極關係。我們最近決定加入 OGMP 2.0 計劃也有助於實現我們的三重使命,因為減少包括甲烷在內的溫室氣體排放對我們公司和我們的行業來說是當務之急。應用包含第三方驗證的嚴格的 OGMP 2.0 報告標準,將是我們實現淨零運營排放的重要一步。

  • Now before I turn the call over to Bill to cover the second-quarter performance, let's discuss for a moment on the equally important returns element of our Triple Mandate. Looking at, first, at returns on capital, we generated a trailing 12-month ROCE of 24% in the quarter, five points higher than the 19% we delivered last quarter.

    現在,在我將電話轉給比爾介紹第二季度的業績之前,讓我們先討論一下我們三重授權中同樣重要的回報要素。首先,在資本回報率方面,我們在本季度產生了 24% 的過去 12 個月 ROCE,比我們上一季度實現的 19% 高 5 個百分點。

  • Turning next to our returns of capital. Once again, we've increased our targeted 2022 distributions to shareholders, taking the total full-year expected returns to $15 billion. This represents a 50% increase from the target announced last quarter with the $15 billion to be distributed across our three tiers of ordinary dividends, share repurchases and VROC. At current strip prices, this represents a return to shareholders of slightly more than 50% of our projected CFO for the year.

    接下來談談我們的資本回報。我們再次增加了 2022 年對股東的分配目標,使全年預期總回報達到 150 億美元。這比上一季度宣布的目標增加了 50%,其中 150 億美元將分配給我們的普通股息、股票回購和 VROC 三個層次。以目前的剝離價格計算,這代表了我們今年預計的 CFO 的 50% 以上的股東回報。

  • Our commitment to achieving our Triple Mandate is unwavering, and delivering competitive returns on and of capital to our shareholders through the cycles is a key component of that commitment.

    我們對實現三重授權的承諾堅定不移,通過週期為股東提供具有競爭力的資本回報是該承諾的關鍵組成部分。

  • Now let me turn it over to Bill to cover our overall performance for the quarter.

    現在讓我把它交給比爾來介紹我們本季度的整體表現。

  • Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, thanks, Ryan. And as you noted, we generated a return on capital employed of 24% on a trailing 12-month basis. On a cash-adjusted basis, that improves to 27%.

    好吧,謝謝,瑞恩。正如您所指出的,我們在過去 12 個月的基礎上產生了 24% 的資本回報率。在現金調整的基礎上,這一比例提高到 27%。

  • Turning to earnings per share, we generated $3.91 per share in adjusted earnings in the quarter. This was driven by strong realized prices and production of almost 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. As we previously mentioned, production volumes in the second quarter were reduced by scheduled turnarounds as well as some unplanned weather and other minor impacts.

    談到每股收益,我們在本季度調整後的每股收益為 3.91 美元。這是由強勁的實際價格和每天近 170 萬桶石油當量的產量推動的。正如我們之前提到的,第二季度的產量因預定的周轉以及一些計劃外的天氣和其他輕微影響而減少。

  • Lower 48 production averaged 977,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the quarter, including 634,000 from the Permian, 233,000 from Eagle Ford and 91,000 from the Bakken. Operations across the rest of our global portfolio also ran well, leading us to generate $7.8 billion in cash from operations in the quarter, excluding working capital. This includes roughly $750 million in distributions from APLNG, and we continue to project full-year distributions of $2.3 billion, with roughly $300 million expected in the third quarter.

    本季度,48 號油田的平均產量為 977,000 桶石油當量,其中二疊紀 634,000 桶,鷹福特 233,000 桶,巴肯河 91,000 桶。我們全球其他投資組合的運營也運行良好,使我們在本季度從運營中產生了 78 億美元的現金,不包括營運資金。這包括來自 APLNG 的大約 7.5 億美元的分配,我們繼續預計全年分配 23 億美元,預計第三季度大約有 3 億美元。

  • We also invested $2 billion back into the business in the second quarter, resulting in free cash flow of $5.9 billion. That more than covered the total $3.3 billion we returned to shareholders in the quarter, as well as the $1.9 billion used to reduce total debt. These actions, taken in combination with the $600 million in disposition proceeds and the purchase of approximately $300 million in long-term investments, resulted in ending cash of $8.5 billion as of June 30.

    我們還在第二季度向該業務投資了 20 億美元,產生了 59 億美元的自由現金流。這超過了我們在本季度向股東返還的 33 億美元,以及用於減少總債務的 19 億美元。這些行動加上 6 億美元的處置收益和購買約 3 億美元的長期投資,導致截至 6 月 30 日的期末現金為 85 億美元。

  • Turning to the second half, we provided a third-quarter production guidance range of 1.7-to-1.76 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and reduced our full-year production from 1.76 million to 1.74 million per day. That's primarily related to risking of projected production from Libya in the second half of the year, as well as some modest updates across the portfolio.

    談到下半年,我們提供的第三季度產量指導範圍為每天 1.7 至 176 萬桶油當量,並將全年產量從每天 176 萬桶降至 174 萬桶。這主要與今年下半年利比亞預計產量的風險以及整個投資組合的一些適度更新有關。

  • Now in conjunction with these changes, we reduced DD&A guidance from $7.7 billion to $7.6 billion for the year. We also increased full-year 2022 adjusted operating cost guidance to $7.5 billion from the prior $7.3 billion. Now this is reflecting commodity-related price impacts.

    現在結合這些變化,我們將今年的 DD&A 指導從 77 億美元減少到 76 億美元。我們還將 2022 年全年調整後的運營成本指引從之前的 73 億美元上調至 75 億美元。現在這反映了與商品相關的價格影響。

  • We reduced guidance for the corporate-segment loss from $1 billion to $900 million, primarily due to lower interest expense resulting from our recent debt reduction and higher interest earned on cash balances, along with some restructuring efforts. Operating capital guidance for the year remains unchanged at $7.8 billion.

    我們將企業部門虧損的指引從 10 億美元下調至 9 億美元,這主要是由於我們最近的債務減少和現金餘額賺取的更高利息以及一些重組工作導致利息支出減少。今年的營運資本指引保持不變,為 78 億美元。

  • So to sum it up, we have delivered another strong quarter across all aspects of our Triple Mandate. Our diverse global asset portfolio continues to run well. We returned $3.3 billion to our shareholders in the second quarter, ended the quarter with $8.5 billion of cash and short-term investments and increased our full-year return-of-capital target to $15 billion. We continued to strengthen our fortress balance sheet, and we have reduced total debt by $3 billion year-to-date. And we further enhanced our low-cost energy transition-oriented portfolio by expanding our current and future presence in the growing global LNG market and by joining the OGMP 2.0 initiative.

    總而言之,我們在三重授權的各個方面都交付了另一個強勁的季度。我們多元化的全球資產組合繼續運行良好。我們在第二季度向股東返還了 33 億美元,以 85 億美元的現金和短期投資結束本季度,並將全年資本回報率目標提高到 150 億美元。我們繼續加強我們的堡壘資產負債表,今年迄今我們已將總債務減少了 30 億美元。我們通過擴大我們當前和未來在不斷增長的全球液化天然氣市場的影響力並加入 OGMP 2.0 計劃,進一步增強了我們以低成本能源轉型為導向的產品組合。

  • Now with that, let's go to Q&A.

    現在,讓我們進入問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question on the line comes from Mr. Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Neil Mehta 先生。

  • Neil Mehta - VP and Integrated Oil & Refining Analyst

    Neil Mehta - VP and Integrated Oil & Refining Analyst

  • Mark, you will be definitely missed, and congratulations to Phil, who -- if you're listening on the line, looking forward to working with you in the new capacity.

    馬克,你肯定會被想念的,祝賀菲爾,如果你正在在線收聽,他期待著以新的身份與你合作。

  • The first question is for you, Ryan. Big announcement in terms of incremental return of capital. And the questions we got from investors this morning, given there's a variable element to it, is should we think of this as being oil price dependent in any way? Or should we view this as a financial commitment from Conoco that no matter -- assuming reasonable market volatility, that's a number you can count on.

    第一個問題是給你的,瑞恩。在資本增量回報方面的重大公告。今天早上我們從投資者那裡得到的問題是,考慮到其中的可變因素,我們是否應該認為這以任何方式依賴於油價?或者我們是否應該將此視為康菲的財務承諾,無論如何——假設市場波動合理,這是一個你可以信賴的數字。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Neil, I think if you're thinking -- if your question is specific to 2022, I think you can count on this return coming back to the shareholders in 2022. We took a broad look at the market from the volatility perspective that you described and felt comfortable that we could increase the distributions to $15 billion using the three channels that we've been using in the past. So you can count on that in 2022.

    是的,尼爾,我想如果你在想——如果你的問題是針對 2022 年的,我認為你可以指望這種回報會在 2022 年回到股東手中。我們從波動性的角度對市場進行了廣泛的研究,您描述並感到滿意的是,我們可以使用我們過去一直使用的三個渠道將分配額增加到 150 億美元。所以你可以在 2022 年指望它。

  • Neil Mehta - VP and Integrated Oil & Refining Analyst

    Neil Mehta - VP and Integrated Oil & Refining Analyst

  • And Ryan, I'd love your perspective on some of the long-term growth projects that the company is leaning into here. The announcement in Qatar, potential investment in U.S. Gulf Coast, and then making progress on Alaska, how does that fit into the long-term Conoco strategy? And do you think that the company is taking a little bit more of a growth orientation here relative to just a free cash flow orientation?

    瑞安,我很喜歡你對公司在這裡傾向於進行的一些長期增長項目的看法。在卡塔爾宣布,在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的潛在投資,然後在阿拉斯加取得進展,這與康菲的長期戰略有何關係?您是否認為該公司相對於自由現金流的方向更多地採取了增長方向?

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I wouldn't describe it as a growth orientation. I think we -- long term, we want to grow and develop our company. We're trying to do things, first and foremost, that fit within our construct of cost of supply in our portfolio. So we recognize the volatility in the markets. We don't want to be investing anything that has a cost of supply over $40. We recognize we need to do that to generate the free cash flow and generate the returns on and of capital. So everything that we're doing is in service to that.

    是的。我不會將其描述為增長方向。我認為我們 - 從長遠來看,我們希望發展和發展我們的公司。首先,我們正在嘗試做一些符合我們投資組合中供應成本結構的事情。因此,我們認識到市場的波動性。我們不想投資任何供應成本超過 40 美元的東西。我們認識到我們需要這樣做以產生自由現金流並產生資本回報。所以我們所做的一切都是為此服務的。

  • Now we do recognize that, certainly post-Ukrainian invasion, and we've long held this view, that gas is going to be more of a transition fuel as we transition to lower-carbon alternatives going forward, and we wanted to play. We have a lot of capacity in the gas space, both LNG and natural gas. We've got a very large position in North America, both between Alaska, Canada and the U.S. Lower 48, and we wanted to augment that with additional LNG liquefaction capacity. So we've been looking at this for quite some time, and the opportunity presented itself with Sempra.

    現在我們確實認識到,當然是在烏克蘭入侵之後,而且我們長期以來一直持有這種觀點,隨著我們向低碳替代品的過渡,天然氣將更多地成為一種過渡燃料,我們想參與其中。我們在天然氣領域擁有大量產能,包括液化天然氣和天然氣。我們在北美擁有非常大的位置,介於阿拉斯加、加拿大和美國 48 州之間,我們希望通過額外的 LNG 液化能力來增加這一點。所以我們已經研究了很長一段時間,機會出現在 Sempra 身上。

  • So, yes, there's some added scope. And clearly, we've signaled for quite some time that we wanted to participate in the expansion project in Qatar. We think that's some of the lowest-priced gas in the world, and it's going to fit well globally. It could be directed to both Asia and to Europe going forward. So I think everything we're doing is in service to our cost of supply mantra in terms of how we think about the investments that we want to make, and that we're interested in growing the development of the company over the long term, and we believe we're at the front end of a pretty constructive cycle in the commodity business going forward just given our view of the macro supply-demand dynamics in the business today.

    所以,是的,還有一些額外的範圍。很明顯,我們已經表明我們想參與卡塔爾的擴建項目已經有一段時間了。我們認為這是世界上價格最低的天然氣之一,它將很好地適應全球。未來它可以針對亞洲和歐洲。所以我認為我們所做的一切都是為了服務於我們的供應成本口號,即我們如何看待我們想要進行的投資,以及我們對公司的長期發展感興趣,鑑於我們對當今業務的宏觀供需動態的看法,我們相信我們正處於商品業務未來相當建設性週期的前端。

  • So when these fit with our construct around how we think about the projects we want to invest in, they make sense for the company, they're consistent with our capabilities and the stuff that we're really good at in the company. So they make sense. Sometimes you can't dictate the pace of these things. And when they come and make themselves available, we're very interested in participating, like the deal with -- the opportunity with Sempra on the Gulf Coast liquefaction.

    因此,當這些符合我們對我們想要投資的項目的看法時,它們對公司有意義,它們與我們的能力和我們在公司真正擅長的東西相一致。所以它們是有道理的。有時你不能決定這些事情的節奏。當他們來提供自己時,我們非常有興趣參與,比如與 Sempra 在墨西哥灣沿岸液化的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question online comes from Mr. Stephen Richardson from Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個在線問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Richardson 先生。

  • Stephen Richardson - Senior MD and Head of Oil and Gas & Exploration and Production Research

    Stephen Richardson - Senior MD and Head of Oil and Gas & Exploration and Production Research

  • Great. I'd like to also thank Mark for all the help and wish him the best. He will definitely be missed.

    偉大的。我還要感謝馬克的所有幫助,並祝他一切順利。他肯定會被想念的。

  • The first question, I guess, is just following up on those comments, Ryan, on Sempra. I was wondering if you could just maybe talk a little bit about, do you think about the returns here relative to the backward integration into your existing U.S. gas production? Do you think about it much more on a merchant basis? And also just curious if you could talk about like why this project relative to the other opportunities and variables you looked at in terms of more Gulf Coast gas?

    我想,第一個問題只是跟進這些評論,Ryan,在 Sempra 上。我想知道您是否可以稍微談談,您是否考慮過相對於向後整合到您現有的美國天然氣生產中的回報?您是否在商家的基礎上更多地考慮它?並且只是好奇您是否可以談論為什麼這個項目相對於您在更多墨西哥灣沿岸天然氣方面看到的其他機會和變量?

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, thanks, Stephen. I think let me take the last one first a little bit. This was a permitted, kind of shovel-ready project. We like the location, we know that area pretty well and we like the expansion opportunities that come with it and the optionality that it creates on the space, scale and scope, which is why we chose Sempra over some of the other opportunities that kind of presented themselves on the Gulf Coast. And also the option link that it has to the West Coast LNG that they have with their Mexican opportunities that are going on there.

    是的,謝謝,斯蒂芬。我想讓我先拿最後一個。這是一個允許的、準備就緒的項目。我們喜歡這個位置,我們非常了解那個區域,我們喜歡它帶來的擴展機會以及它在空間、規模和範圍上創造的選擇性,這就是為什麼我們選擇 Sempra 而不是其他一些機會出現在墨西哥灣沿岸。還有它與西海岸液化天然氣的選擇鏈接,他們在那裡擁有墨西哥的機會。

  • So it was a really good fit. We know Sempra pretty well. We've worked with them in the past. A good fit culturally to the company and consistent sort of culture in terms of how we think about the business, the markets and where natural gas is going globally.

    所以它非常適合。我們非常了解 Sempra。我們過去曾與他們合作過。就我們如何看待業務、市場和天然氣走向全球的方式而言,在文化上與公司非常契合,並且具有一致的文化。

  • More to your first part, yes, we think about this in a very integrated fashion. So it's not only liquefaction, but it's moving it into the market, and that it's a recognition that with the transactions we've done over the last year and the core assets inside the portfolio in the Lower 48, both Canada and the Lower 48, we recognize we've got a large potential natural gas position. And we want to create value for that position in a very integrated fashion. So it's the integrated nature of the project. Not any one element, but they all tie together. The ability to supply gas to the liquefaction facility, the taking of the five million tons of commitment, moving it into the markets that we know really well and getting into that fully integrated chain is what interested us the most.

    更多關於您的第一部分,是的,我們以非常綜合的方式考慮這一點。因此,這不僅是液化,而且是將其推向市場,這是對我們在去年完成的交易以及加拿大和下 48 州下 48 州投資組合中的核心資產的認可,我們認識到我們擁有巨大的潛在天然氣頭寸。我們希望以一種非常綜合的方式為該職位創造價值。所以這是項目的綜合性質。不是任何一個元素,但它們都聯繫在一起。向液化設施供應天然氣的能力、承擔 500 萬噸的承諾、將其轉移到我們非常熟悉的市場並進入完全整合的供應鍊是我們最感興趣的。

  • Stephen Richardson - Senior MD and Head of Oil and Gas & Exploration and Production Research

    Stephen Richardson - Senior MD and Head of Oil and Gas & Exploration and Production Research

  • That's really helpful. If I could just have a quick follow-up on -- there's some movement, it seems in Washington or at least discussions about cleaning up some of the permitting challenges that the industry faces, particularly around NEPA. And I'm wondering if maybe you could talk a little bit about what would need to happen to kind of push Willow a little bit higher up. That's the one project, obviously, we think about when you hear about NEPA, but maybe you could address that, please.

    這真的很有幫助。如果我能快速跟進——華盛頓似乎有一些動靜,或者至少在討論清理該行業面臨的一些許可挑戰,特別是在 NEPA 周圍。我想知道您是否可以談談將 Willow 推高一點需要發生的事情。這是一個項目,很明顯,當你聽說 NEPA 時,我們會考慮,但也許你可以解決這個問題,拜託。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, NEPA needs reform, Stephen. It can take 10 years or more cycle time. And it's not just our industry, it's all industries, even the guys that I talked to that are wind developers and solar farm developers complain to the same thing. It takes a long time, the coordination through all the various government agencies that have responsibility within the NEPA process, and it just takes a lot of time. So having some better coordination, giving some deadlines to response times, giving good public comment review periods, but don't let them sort of extend indefinitely like this administration tends to do a little bit and past administrations have tended to do for that matter. So you have a NEPA process that is in desperate need of reform to try to make it run smoother, quicker and have coordinating groups shepherd this through the various agencies that have some responsibility through the course of the process.

    是的,NEPA 需要改革,斯蒂芬。它可能需要 10 年或更長時間的循環時間。不僅僅是我們的行業,所有行業,甚至我與之交談的風能開發商和太陽能農場開發商都抱怨同樣的事情。這需要很長時間,通過所有在 NEPA 過程中負責的政府機構進行協調,而且只需要很多時間。因此,進行更好的協調,為響應時間提供一些截止日期,提供良好的公眾意見審查期,但不要讓它們像本屆政府傾向於做的那樣無限期地延長,而過去的政府往往會為此做些事情。因此,您有一個迫切需要改革的 NEPA 流程,以使其運行得更順暢、更快,並讓協調小組通過在整個流程過程中負有一定責任的各個機構來引導這一進程。

  • And I understand they're looking at that, maybe it's a companion bill to the Schumer-Manchin Bill. So it gives us a little bit of question as to whether or not it will get done, but it is in desperate need of some NEPA reform.

    我知道他們正在考慮這一點,也許這是舒默-曼欽法案的配套法案。所以它給了我們一點關於它是否會完成的問題,但它迫切需要一些 NEPA 改革。

  • Now Willow specifically, we've been in this process a long time, so we're in the final throes of that. We've got the supplemental EIS statement through the Department of Interior, it's out for public comment today. Again, we'd like to -- the public has had plenty of time to comment on this project. I think we know where everybody stands. So it's time to make a decision to move forward. And we look forward to that record of decision coming here later this year so we can get moving forward on the project. We think we've satisfied all the concerns that the federal judge has had, and we're ready to move forward.

    現在具體來說,Willow,我們在這個過程中已經經歷了很長時間,所以我們正處於最後的陣痛中。我們已經通過內政部獲得了補充 EIS 聲明,今天將徵求公眾意見。同樣,我們想——公眾有足夠的時間來評論這個項目。我想我們知道每個人的立場。因此,是時候做出向前邁進的決定了。我們期待著今年晚些時候在這裡發布決定記錄,以便我們可以繼續推進該項目。我們認為我們已經滿足了聯邦法官的所有擔憂,我們準備繼續前進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question online comes from Jeanine Wai from Barclays.

    我們的下一個在線問題來自巴克萊的 Jeanine Wai。

  • Jeanine Wai - Research Analyst

    Jeanine Wai - Research Analyst

  • We'd also like to throw our congratulations to Mark on your retirement, and thanks so much for your time, and you'll be very missed.

    我們還要祝賀馬克退休,非常感謝您的寶貴時間,您會非常想念的。

  • Our first question maybe dovetails on Neil's question on cash returns. Just maybe digging in a little bit more. Does the increase primarily reflect a stronger-than-expected commodity price environment? Or are there other factors that are kind of driving the increase? I mean, I guess we had anticipated some kind of increase given we saw a really strong free cash flow outlook, but we thought it would be kind of walked up over time. So the $5 billion increase, it exceeded our expectations. I think it exceeded the market's expectations. So any color on how you're thinking about future potential there would be great.

    我們的第一個問題可能與尼爾關於現金回報的問題相吻合。只是可能再挖一點。增長是否主要反映了強於預期的商品價格環境?還是有其他因素在推動增長?我的意思是,我想我們已經預料到了某種增長,因為我們看到了非常強勁的自由現金流前景,但我們認為它會隨著時間的推移而上升。所以增加了 50 億美元,超出了我們的預期。我認為這超出了市場的預期。因此,任何關於您如何考慮未來潛力的顏色都會很棒。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Jeanine, we look at a lot of things. We have an informed view of the supply-demand dynamics and the macro where it's going. There's a lot of volatility as you know in the market. So we wanted something that we could make sure that -- we could guarantee that we could deliver in 2022, even with the backward-dated nature of the forward curve a little bit. But we have a pretty constructive view on the commodity price.

    珍妮,我們看了很多東西。我們對供需動態和宏觀發展方向有充分的了解。如您所知,市場波動很大。所以我們想要一些我們可以確保的東西——我們可以保證我們可以在 2022 年交付,即使遠期曲線的日期有點過時。但我們對大宗商品價格持相當建設性的看法。

  • The other thing that kind of enters into our conversation is where we are on the balance sheet. We know we have a very, very strong balance sheet. We're interested in rebuilding a little bit of cash after the last transaction earlier this year that we spent some cash on, which has been a very good transaction for the company. We're really pleased with how that's going. And Jack can chime in on some of that if there's a later question.

    進入我們談話的另一件事是我們在資產負債表上的位置。我們知道我們有一個非常非常強大的資產負債表。在今年早些時候我們花了一些現金進行的最後一次交易之後,我們有興趣重建一點現金,這對公司來說是一筆非常好的交易。我們對事情的進展感到非常滿意。如果以後有問題,傑克可以插話。

  • But I think it's -- where our cash position is on the balance sheet. We still want to build some cash on the balance sheet for the volatility we see in the market and the terms that we see going forward, but we're pretty constructive over the next few years on the commodity price. So we feel like the progress that we've made was pretty good that allowed us then to maybe increase the distribution back to the shareholders above and beyond maybe what the market might have been expecting over the last few months.

    但我認為這是 - 我們的現金頭寸在資產負債表上的位置。我們仍然希望為我們在市場中看到的波動和我們看到的未來條款在資產負債表上積累一些現金,但我們在未來幾年對大宗商品價格相當有建設性。因此,我們覺得我們取得的進展非常好,這使我們能夠增加對股東的分配,甚至超出市場在過去幾個月的預期。

  • Jeanine Wai - Research Analyst

    Jeanine Wai - Research Analyst

  • Great. Our second question, maybe moving to CapEx and inflation. It continues to be a pretty tough operating environment out there between inflation and a tight supply chain. Can you maybe discuss how your costs are trending versus your expectations? And we kind of thought Conoco would true up the CapEx budget for the recently announced participation in the North Field LNG project, but you reiterated the CapEx budget this morning. So if you're able to clarify for us if there's anything in the '22 budget for that participation, that would be very helpful.

    偉大的。我們的第二個問題,可能轉向資本支出和通貨膨脹。在通貨膨脹和緊張的供應鏈之間,它仍然是一個相當艱難的經營環境。您能否討論一下您的成本趨勢與您的預期有何不同?我們認為康菲石油公司會為最近宣布的參與 North Field LNG 項目的資本支出預算進行調整,但您今天早上重申了資本支出預算。因此,如果您能夠為我們澄清 22 年預算中是否有任何與該參與有關的內容,那將非常有幫助。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Maybe I'll say a few high words. Obviously, inflation is still with us. It's staying with us. It's different around the whole different pieces of the world. Maybe I can ask Bill to chime in on some of that. And then Nick, maybe you can address Jeanine's question specifically on the timing of NFE.

    是的。也許我會說幾句高調的話。顯然,通貨膨脹仍然伴隨著我們。它和我們在一起。世界各地的情況都不一樣。也許我可以請比爾插話其中一些。然後尼克,也許你可以專門解決珍妮關於 NFE 時間安排的問題。

  • Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, sure, Ryan. So Jeanine, we continue to expect our overall company inflation to be in the 7% to 8% range, and that's what's reflected in our capital guidance of $7.8 billion, just like we talked about in the first-quarter call. Like everyone else, with our higher activity levels in Permian, that's where we're experiencing the most inflation, what we're watching, and we're continuing to keep an eye on that.

    是的,當然,瑞恩。所以珍妮,我們繼續預計我們的整體公司通脹率將在 7% 至 8% 的範圍內,這反映在我們 78 億美元的資本指導中,就像我們在第一季度電話會議中談到的那樣。像其他人一樣,我們在二疊紀的活動水平較高,這是我們經歷最多通貨膨脹的地方,我們正在觀察,我們將繼續關注這一點。

  • Nick Olds - Executive VP of Global Operations

    Nick Olds - Executive VP of Global Operations

  • Jeanine, this is Nick. Yes, this is on the North Field Expansion. So obviously, we got the 25% equity in half a train. So to put that in perspective, QatarEnergy communicated that the total project, that's four trains of eight million tons per annum, so a total of 32 million, is 29 billion for that. Our effective working interest is 3.125%. So if you take that, that gives us an estimated incremental CapEx of approximately $900 million for the NFE project.

    珍妮,這是尼克。是的,這是在 North Field Expansion 上。很明顯,我們在半列火車中獲得了 25% 的股權。因此,從這個角度來看,卡塔爾能源公司表示,總項目,即每年 800 萬噸的四列火車,總共 3200 萬,是 290 億。我們的有效工作權益為 3.125%。因此,如果您接受這一點,那麼我們估計 NFE 項目的增量資本支出約為 9 億美元。

  • Now related to timing, as Ryan mentioned, this project has been going on for a couple of years with drilling and putting in platforms. So we'll have an initial catch-up payment for our share of the project costs, either late this year or early next, and that's not determined at this point in time.

    正如瑞恩所說,現在與時間有關,這個項目已經進行了幾年,鑽探和安裝平台。因此,我們將在今年年底或明年年初為我們的項目成本份額進行初始補繳,目前尚未確定。

  • And with respect to start-up of first LNG as QatarEnergy has communicated, that is in 2026. Again, this would be incremental to any guidance.

    至於卡塔爾能源公司所傳達的第一個液化天然氣的啟動,那就是在 2026 年。同樣,這將是對任何指導的增量。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. So Jeanine, that's incremental. If it did -- if a catch-up payment did occur this year, that would be incremental to the $7.8 billion that we guided to.

    是的。所以珍妮,這是漸進的。如果確實如此——如果今年確實發生了追加付款,那將增加我們指導的 78 億美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question online comes from Mr. Roger Read from Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個在線問題來自富國銀行的 Roger Read 先生。

  • Roger Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Roger Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Mark, congratulations. You seem far too young a man to retire, but you got to do what you got to do, right?

    馬克,恭喜。你看起來太年輕了,不能退休,但你必須做你該做的,對吧?

  • Anyway, question I'd like to get on. It kind of comes back to the overall LNG and tying it together, your existing operations, and obviously, the two new seems, I guess, one for sure and one likely investment. You're a big gas trader in the U.S., to some extent globally. I was just curious, does that create a new integrated sort of business we should think about down the road. And what would be the opportunities there? Probably gets a little bit back to Stephen's question about the return structure of the transaction overall with Sempra.

    無論如何,我想繼續提問。它有點回到整體液化天然氣並將其與您現有的業務聯繫在一起,顯然,我猜這兩個新的似乎是一個肯定和一個可能的投資。你是美國的大天然氣貿易商,在某種程度上是全球性的。我只是好奇,這是否會創造一種我們應該考慮的新的綜合業務。那裡的機會是什麼?可能有點回到斯蒂芬關於與 Sempra 的整體交易回報結構的問題。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Let me -- I'll start that. Maybe I can have Bill chime in a little bit on the commercial aspects of what we're doing in this space. But you're right, Roger. I think we look at it, again, very integrated nature. So we're marketing 7 to 8 Bcf a day of gas every day in North America. So we're -- the opportunity to supply gas into a multiple-train project at Port Arthur, Texas is intriguing to us, then our commitment to take the 5 million tons, we've got a lot of experience moving it into the market. Bill can describe. There's a commercial team in London. We've got a commercial team in Singapore. We're used to both the European and the Asian markets. We'll figure out how best to move that five million tons, and there may be a spot compliment to that. We don't know. We'll work that out as we go through. But that very integrated nature all the way from the supply side through taking the gas and selling it to customers is what was of interest to us in looking at it on an integrated fashion.

    是的。讓我 - 我會開始。也許我可以讓 Bill 談談我們在這個領域所做的商業方面的事情。但你是對的,羅傑。我認為我們再次審視它,非常整合的性質。因此,我們每天在北美銷售 7 到 8 Bcf 的天然氣。因此,我們有機會為德克薩斯州亞瑟港的多列火車項目供應天然氣,這對我們很有吸引力,然後我們承諾將 500 萬噸投入市場,我們有很多經驗將其推向市場.比爾可以描述。倫敦有一個商業團隊。我們在新加坡有一個商業團隊。我們已經習慣了歐洲和亞洲市場。我們將弄清楚如何最好地移動這 500 萬噸,並且可能會對此表示讚賞。我們不知道。我們會在經歷的過程中解決這個問題。但是,從供應方一直到獲取天然氣並將其出售給客戶,這種非常綜合的性質正是我們以綜合方式看待它的興趣所在。

  • I don't know, Bill, if there's any more color you might provide on the commercial side.

    我不知道,比爾,你是否可以在商業方面提供更多顏色。

  • Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Sure, Ryan. Roger, as Ryan highlighted, it's this integrated nature that's most exciting about it. We are one of the largest marketers in North America, certainly a top-five marketer. I think lately, we're pushing number two. So we're very comfortable with supply, and we move orders of magnitude above our physical production. So the optionality that being able to supply LNG regas facilities is pretty interesting to us. It's also interesting to us in terms of ensuring strong flow assurance for our own production.

    是的。當然,瑞恩。羅傑,正如瑞恩所強調的那樣,最令人興奮的是這種整合的性質。我們是北美最大的營銷商之一,當然也是前五名的營銷商。我認為最近,我們正在推動第二名。因此,我們對供應非常滿意,而且我們的實際生產量要高出幾個數量級。因此,能夠提供 LNG 再加氣設施的選擇性對我們來說非常有趣。在確保我們自己的生產的強大流動保證方面,我們也很感興趣。

  • And then we've got a history of well over 40 years of marketing LNG through Asia. We started the trade into Japan with our Kenai facility. We've been in the LNG business for quite a long time. As Ryan mentioned, we've got offices in London, Singapore and Japan. We've been moving spot volumes in the market here off of APLNG. And so it's a part of the market we know quite well and pretty excited about this integrated nature of being able to create value across that chain.

    然後,我們在亞洲擁有超過 40 年的液化天然氣營銷歷史。我們通過我們的基奈工廠開始了對日本的貿易。我們從事液化天然氣業務已有很長時間了。正如 Ryan 所說,我們在倫敦、新加坡和日本設有辦事處。我們一直在從 APLNG 轉移市場上的現貨量。因此,它是我們非常了解的市場的一部分,並且對能夠在整個鏈條中創造價值的這種集成性質感到非常興奮。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • And the other part, Roger, I would say -- Jack could chime in too here, but just the gas resource that we have as a result of the transactions over the last couple of years, we've got a very large, high-quality gas resource that we could -- we hope to be pivoting to over time to even supply a lot of this gas.

    另一部分,羅傑,我想說——傑克也可以在這裡插話,但只是過去幾年交易產生的天然氣資源,我們有一個非常大的、高的——我們可以提供的優質天然氣資源——我們希望隨著時間的推移轉向供應大量這種天然氣。

  • Roger Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Roger Read - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Yes, for sure. The other question, just coming back, you talked earlier about potential positives like a NEPA reorg and all that sort of thing. I was just wondering, in the IRA bill with some of the issues on a methane tax, Conoco has certainly been ahead of the game on overall emissions reductions and everything. But is there anything in that or any of the other aspects of the bill, 15% minimum tax, things like that, we should think of as headwinds?

    是肯定的。另一個問題,剛剛回來,您之前談到了潛在的積極因素,例如 NEPA 重組和所有類似的事情。我只是想知道,在關於甲烷稅的一些問題的愛爾蘭共和軍法案中,康菲石油公司在整體減排和一切方面肯定處於領先地位。但是該法案中是否有任何內容或任何其他方面,15% 的最低稅,諸如此類的東西,我們應該將其視為逆風?

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, I think, generally speaking, the Schumer-Manchin Bill is -- I'm not sure if it's a good time ever to be increasing taxes and increasing government spending, just as a general economic policy, and that's a large part of what this bill does do. Now specific to our industry, at least the agreement recognizes that natural gas and oil are an important part of the energy transition and they're going to be here for decades. So that's a positive. I think the methane fee to your point, it's got some hooks in it. We'll have to see how it develops over time and comes out with the extra regulation coming out of EPA.

    嗯,我認為,一般來說,舒默-曼欽法案是——我不確定現在是否是增加稅收和增加政府支出的好時機,就像一般經濟政策一樣,這在很大程度上是這個法案確實可以。現在具體到我們的行業,至少該協議承認天然氣和石油是能源轉型的重要組成部分,它們將持續數十年。所以這是積極的。我認為甲烷費用對你來說是有問題的。我們將不得不看看它如何隨著時間的推移而發展,並隨著 EPA 的額外法規出台。

  • Our general view is if you're going to regulate it, why do you have to put a fee on top of that. We'll have to see how that's structured. It generally won't, as we understand it today, maybe impact companies like ConocoPhillips that have been very proactive in the emissions space. And you saw our OGMP 2.0 agreement to join that, specifically targeting methane itself. So at least the agreement incentivizes some carbon capture by addressing the 45Q.

    我們的普遍看法是,如果你要對其進行監管,為什麼還要在此之上收取費用。我們將不得不看看它的結構。正如我們今天所理解的那樣,它通常不會影響像康菲石油公司這樣在排放領域非常積極主動的公司。您看到我們的 OGMP 2.0 協議加入其中,專門針對甲烷本身。因此,至少該協議通過解決 45Q 來激勵一些碳捕獲。

  • So it's uncertain right now. The earlier comment, I think, from Stephen on NEPA reform, too, there's supposed to be a companion bill that comes with this that addresses a lot of that, and that leaves a lot of uncertainty in the process. So kind of mixed views at this point in time, Roger.

    所以現在還不確定。我認為,斯蒂芬早些時候關於 NEPA 改革的評論也應該有一個伴隨的法案來解決很多問題,這在這個過程中留下了很多不確定性。羅傑,在這個時間點上的觀點很複雜。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question on the line comes from Mr. Doug Leggate from Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate 先生。

  • Doug Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

    Doug Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

  • Mark, let me offer my congratulations to you as well. I'm not sure Mr. Gresh will be as much fun to travel with, but good luck in your retirement.

    馬克,讓我也向你表示祝賀。我不確定與 Gresh 先生一起旅行是否會同樣有趣,但祝你退休後好運。

  • I guess, Bill, maybe I could start with you. Last quarter, you talked about the U.S. business moving into full cash tax. I wonder if you could just give us an update as to whether we're there yet. And what -- when you wrap it all together with the rest of the portfolio, including the recent Norwegian changes, how should we think about the cash tax outlook for Conoco going forward?

    我想,比爾,也許我可以從你開始。上個季度,您談到了美國業務轉向全額現金稅。我想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關我們是否還在那裡的最新信息。還有什麼——當你把它和投資組合的其他部分放在一起時,包括最近挪威的變化,我們應該如何看待康菲公司未來的現金稅前景?

  • Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, sure. Happy to, Doug. We moved into a U.S. taxpaying position in the second quarter. And of course, the amounts and timing through 2022 can vary depending on price and other market conditions. But the majority of our U.S. taxes in the second quarter were paid in cash with very minimal offsets from NOLs. And looking at the limitations on NOLs, we'd expect to be, our tax payments through 2023 to be reduced only slightly, but not eliminated. So at a high level, we're in a cash taxpaying position.

    是的,當然。很高興,道格。我們在第二季度進入了美國納稅職位。當然,到 2022 年的數量和時間可能會因價格和其他市場條件而異。但我們第二季度的大部分美國稅款都是以現金支付的,從 NOL 中得到的抵消非常少。看看 NOL 的限制,我們預計到 2023 年我們的納稅額只會略微減少,但不會被消除。因此,在較高的水平上,我們處於現金納稅的位置。

  • Our effective tax rate for the second quarter was about 32%. Moving forward, I expect our effective tax rate to stay in the mid-30s, assuming production aligns with our guidance and forward curves.

    我們第二季度的有效稅率約為 32%。展望未來,假設生產與我們的指導和遠期曲線一致,我預計我們的有效稅率將保持在 30 年代中期。

  • Doug Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

    Doug Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

  • So basically, if there is an EMT, there's no impact from you guys, it sounds like?

    所以基本上,如果有 EMT,你們就沒有影響,聽起來像?

  • Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. If you're talking about the 15% corporate minimum tax pursuit proposed an IRA, we don't expect that to have any material impact on the company because we exceed a 15% minimum tax across our jurisdictions.

    是的。如果您談論的是 15% 的企業最低稅收追求提出了 IRA,我們預計這不會對公司產生任何重大影響,因為我們在我們的司法管轄區超過了 15% 的最低稅收。

  • Doug Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

    Doug Leggate - MD and Head of US Oil & Gas Equity Research

  • Great stuff. My follow-up is I wonder if I could try and tackle the CapEx question from a slightly different angle. When you wrap all of the moving parts together, cash tax is changing, obviously, a little bit of inflation on the operating costs. And then, of course, the overall capital budget, an issue that going back to when Matt was around, we used to get a lot was the idea of what the sustaining capital breakeven was for the portfolio. So I wonder if I could ask you to, as you look to 2023, what does that look like? And obviously, gas prices have moved around as well. But if you could give us an update as to how you see that covering your sustaining capital as opposed to the total capital. And I'll leave it there.

    好東西。我的後續行動是我想知道我是否可以嘗試從稍微不同的角度解決資本支出問題。當您將所有活動部件包裝在一起時,現金稅正在發生變化,顯然,運營成本有點通貨膨脹。然後,當然,總體資本預算,這個問題可以追溯到馬特在世時,我們曾經得到很多關於投資組合的持續資本盈虧平衡的想法。所以我想知道我是否可以問你,當你展望 2023 年時,那會是什麼樣子?顯然,汽油價格也發生了變化。但是,如果您可以向我們提供有關您如何看待維持資本而不是總資本的最新信息。我會把它留在那裡。

  • Dominic Macklon - Executive VP of Strategy, Sustainability & Technology

    Dominic Macklon - Executive VP of Strategy, Sustainability & Technology

  • Yes. Thanks, Doug. It's Dominic here. Yes, there are some moving parts, and we'll be refreshing that as we pull our plans together. We're just going through our annual planning cycle right now. I mean, I think looking at this year, our actual breakeven this year is still calculating out around $30 a barrel capital breakeven. So sustaining capital around $6 billion. Now there's obviously some inflation pressure on that. But the way we think about sustaining capital is, you're probably going to be focused on that in a lower macro world, if you like, and inflation not quite so high. So we still think that structurally, this year, we're in about -- sustaining capital would be about $6 billion. Clearly, that, with some long-cycle projects coming, longer-cycle, low cost of supply projects coming, that will add to that for a temporary period, and we'll provide more information on that I expect by the end of the year.

    是的。謝謝,道格。這裡是多米尼克。是的,有一些活動的部分,當我們把我們的計劃放在一起時,我們會刷新這些。我們現在正在經歷我們的年度計劃週期。我的意思是,我認為看看今年,我們今年的實際盈虧平衡仍在計算每桶 30 美元左右的資本盈虧平衡。因此,維持資本約為 60 億美元。現在顯然有一些通脹壓力。但我們考慮維持資本的方式是,如果您願意,您可能會在較低的宏觀世界中專注於這一點,而通脹不會那麼高。所以我們仍然認為,從結構上講,今年我們的維持資本約為 60 億美元。顯然,隨著一些長周期項目的到來,更長周期、低成本的供應項目的到來,這將暫時增加這一點,我們將在今年年底提供更多關於我預計的信息.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question on line comes from Mr. John Royall from JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個在線問題來自摩根大通的 John Royall 先生。

  • John Royall - Analyst

    John Royall - Analyst

  • So just a question on your cadence of production in the Permian. I know you talked about it being back-half weighted in the prior quarter and looks like a modest tick down in 2Q. So can you just speak to the cadence for the back half and expectations for 3Q versus 4Q? And then maybe just a broad update on your drilling program there.

    所以只是一個關於你在二疊紀生產節奏的問題。我知道你談到它在上一季度的後半部分權重,看起來在第二季度略有下降。那麼,您能否談談後半部分的節奏以及對 3Q 與 4Q 的預期?然後也許只是對那裡的鑽井計劃的廣泛更新。

  • Jack Harper - EVP of Lower 48

    Jack Harper - EVP of Lower 48

  • Yes. This is Jack. In general, the production in both the Lower 48 and in the Permian is back-half weighted, and we expect low single-digit growth year-over-year on a pro forma basis. But on an entry-exit basis, we expect Lower 48 to grow in the mid-to-high single digits with the Permian at the higher end of that range. As for expectations for activity, good news is we're -- we plan to run steady in the back half of the year, and we are currently running the number of rigs that we plan to run for the rest of the year.

    是的。這是傑克。總的來說,下 48 和二疊紀的產量都是後半部分加權的,我們預計在備考基礎上同比增長將出現低個位數增長。但在進入退出的基礎上,我們預計較低的 48 層將以中高個位數增長,而二疊紀位於該範圍的高端。至於對活動的預期,好消息是我們 - 我們計劃在今年下半年穩定運行,我們目前正在運行我們計劃在今年剩餘時間運行的鑽機數量。

  • John Royall - Analyst

    John Royall - Analyst

  • Yes. And then if you could just give some color on crude realizations, looks really strong in the quarter when you look at your slide there. Very strong across the board, but North Sea was particularly strong. So just anything going on there broadly or regionally to point out?

    是的。然後,如果您可以在粗略的實現上給出一些顏色,那麼當您查看那裡的幻燈片時,該季度看起來真的很強大。整體非常強大,但北海特別強大。那麼,有什麼廣泛或區域性的事情需要指出嗎?

  • Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, sure. If you look at our realizations overall, and we provided a summary of that in the supplemental information, total realizations for the quarter were about 78% of Brent. That's really driven by four factors as we look at it, John. First is, that's the narrowing of the Brent, WTI spread. Brent increased about 12%. WTI was about 15%. Henry Hub was up significantly more compared relative to Brent, it was up 44%. So that's impacting the total realizations.

    是的,當然。如果您查看我們的整體實現,並且我們在補充信息中提供了摘要,則本季度的總實現約為布倫特原油的 78%。約翰,這實際上是由四個因素驅動的。首先是布倫特原油與 WTI 價差的收窄。布倫特原油上漲約 12%。 WTI 約為 15%。與布倫特原油相比,Henry Hub 的漲幅要大得多,上漲了 44%。所以這會影響總體實現。

  • And then on the crude side, in particular, we had better realizations coming out of Alaska for the quarter. That's really Alaska returning to more of its normal-type realizations. In the first quarter, you may recall we had an impact for our HollyFrontier Refinery downtime in the first quarter that was impacting our prices. And then we saw better realizations out of Norway. That's really driven by cargo timing across the quarters. So that's really what's impacting our crude realizations across the company.

    然後在粗略的一面,特別是,我們在本季度從阿拉斯加獲得了更好的認識。這真的是阿拉斯加回歸到更多的正常類型的實現。在第一季度,您可能還記得我們在第一季度對 HollyFrontier 煉油廠的停機時間產生了影響,這影響了我們的價格。然後我們在挪威看到了更好的認識。這實際上是由各個季度的貨運時間驅動的。所以這確實是影響我們整個公司的原始實現的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question online comes from Mr. Paul Cheng from Scotiabank.

    我們的下一個在線問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng 先生。

  • Paul Cheng - Analyst

    Paul Cheng - Analyst

  • Let me add my congratulations to Mark. Thank you for all the help over the years.

    讓我向馬克表示祝賀。感謝您多年來的所有幫助。

  • Two quick questions, if I could. Ryan, a lot of your peers have been doing some bolt-on -- some pretty large bolt-on acquisitions in, say, whether just in Bakken or that in Eagle Ford or in Permian. When you're looking at your portfolio, do you see a lot of opportunity for you to further firm up or strengthen your portfolio in those three through the bolt-on acquisitions or that you think the value proposition is not really that attractive?

    如果可以的話,兩個快速的問題。瑞恩,你的很多同行一直在做一些補強收購——比如說,無論是在巴肯、鷹福特還是二疊紀,都進行了一些相當大的補強收購。當您查看您的投資組合時,您是否看到很多機會通過補強收購進一步鞏固或加強您在這三個方面的投資組合,或者您認為價值主張並不那麼有吸引力?

  • The second one is, in the first half the split between dividend and buyback is roughly 1/3 dividend and 2/3 buyback. Is that a good proxy for us to assume on a going-forward basis when added to your distribution?

    第二個是,上半年股息和回購的比例大約是 1/3 的股息和 2/3 的回購。當添加到您的發行版中時,這對我們來說是一個很好的代理嗎?

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, thanks, Paul. We're in the market quite a bit. I think a lot of our focus right now in the Lower 48, and Jack can comment on as well, is doing a lot of the core up. We noted that in some of our slides. So it's -- we've had a lot of focus right now on swapping and trading acreage with the large transaction that we did earlier this year to try to core-up the acreage so we can make sure we're not drilling 1-mile, but we're drilling the -- we have the opportunity to drill the 2- and the 3-mile laterals.

    是的,謝謝,保羅。我們在市場上相當多。我認為我們現在的很多重點都放在了 48 歲以下,傑克也可以評論說,正在做很多核心。我們在一些幻燈片中註意到了這一點。因此,我們現在非常關注與今年早些時候進行的大型交易的交換和交易面積,以嘗試對面積進行核心化,這樣我們就可以確保我們不會鑽 1 英里,但我們正在鑽探——我們有機會鑽探 2 英里和 3 英里的支管。

  • We've seen a lot of the -- we looked at the bolt-on that you described in the Bakken here more recently. We follow the Eagle Ford. I guess, the bar is still pretty high in our company, and we're pretty -- we rigidly follow our $40 and $50 cost of supply cutoffs. So all in, any acquisition comes in has to have a lower than $50 and the future exploitation of the asset has to have something that's lower than $40 to compete in our portfolio. So the bar gets pretty high. We watch all of them, and we're doing a few of them, but more of them are around the swaps in the Permian. I don't know, Jack, you might -- if you have anything to add there at all.

    我們已經看到了很多 - 我們查看了您最近在 Bakken 中描述的螺栓連接。我們跟隨鷹福特。我想,我們公司的門檻仍然很高,而且我們很漂亮——我們嚴格遵循 40 美元和 50 美元的供應截止成本。因此,總而言之,任何收購的價格都必須低於 50 美元,並且未來對資產的利用必須低於 40 美元才能在我們的投資組合中競爭。所以酒吧變得相當高。我們觀看了所有這些,我們正在做其中的一些,但更多的是圍繞二疊紀的交換。我不知道,傑克,你可能會——如果你有什麼要補充的話。

  • Jack Harper - EVP of Lower 48

    Jack Harper - EVP of Lower 48

  • Yes. I would just add that since the Concho deal closed at the beginning of last year, the team has done 15 of these swaps and trades in the Permian this quarter, about 25,000 acres. And we have about that same number of deals in various stages currently. And the significance about that amount of acreage is that's at least a year's worth of Permian drilling activity, all of those extended lateral lengths.

    是的。我只想補充一點,自去年年初完成 Concho 交易以來,該團隊本季度在二疊紀進行了 15 次此類掉期和交易,佔地約 25,000 英畝。我們目前在不同階段的交易數量大致相同。這麼大面積的意義在於,這至少相當於二疊紀鑽井活動的一年,所有這些延伸的橫向長度。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Jack. And on to your second part, Paul, I think the thing to remember this year is there's a little bit of the buyback pace was influenced by the swap that we had with Cenovus swapping out of the shares that we own there into the shares of ConocoPhillips. But we're going to watch the market. Obviously, we're going to watch where our share prices are trading and how much we put to the cash side of it versus the share buyback. I'd say somewhere in that 2/3, 1/3, so 60%, 40% is probably something that you should expect for the year, this year. And then we'll relook at that, revisit that next year as we go through our planning process. And that includes the typical fourth-quarter increase to the ordinary dividend.

    謝謝,傑克。關於你的第二部分,保羅,我認為今年要記住的一點是,回購速度受到了我們與 Cenovus 將我們擁有的股票換成康菲石油公司股票的互換的影響.但我們要觀察市場。顯然,我們將關注我們的股價在哪裡交易,以及我們在現金方面投入了多少資金,而不是股票回購。我想說的是 2/3、1/3,所以 60%、40% 可能是今年你應該期待的,今年。然後我們將重新審視它,明年在我們完成計劃過程時重新審視它。這包括典型的第四季度普通股息增加。

  • We'll take that under advisement with the Board and be thinking about that. That cash return portion as we think about the market and think about where the company is positioned. But I think roughly what you see this year is probably something closer to a 60-40 split between buybacks and cash.

    我們將在與董事會商議的情況下考慮這一點。當我們考慮市場並考慮公司的定位時,現金回報部分。但我認為你今年看到的大致情況可能是回購和現金之間的比例接近 60-40。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question online comes from Mr. Bob Brackett from Bernstein Research.

    我們的下一個在線問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Bob Brackett 先生。

  • Bob Brackett - Senior Research Analyst

    Bob Brackett - Senior Research Analyst

  • Please add my voice to the chorus praising Mark as well.

    請把我的聲音也加入到讚美馬克的合唱中。

  • I'll come back to the Willow question. It's my understanding that the 45-day comment period ends at the end of this month. Can you talk about what the path toward FID following that looks like? What are the various steps? And can you talk about the various alternatives proposed in the supplemental as you think about the cost benefit of those?

    我會回到柳樹的問題。據我了解,為期 45 天的評論期將於本月底結束。您能談談 FID 遵循的路徑是什麼樣的嗎?不同的步驟是什麼?當您考慮這些替代方案的成本效益時,您能否談談補充文件中提出的各種替代方案?

  • Nick Olds - Executive VP of Global Operations

    Nick Olds - Executive VP of Global Operations

  • Yes, Bob, this is Nick. You're right, the 45-day comment period has commenced. And again, just kind of backing up, that's a key milestone for the BLM to publish the draft SEIS on July 8. Now to your question on project schedule, we wouldn't take FID until we get the final SEIS and a supportive Record of Decision by the BLM. And so that would allow us to move forward with Willow construction. Now related to FID, we would probably see that at the earliest later this year and most likely early next.

    是的,鮑勃,這是尼克。沒錯,45 天的評論期已經開始。再一次,只是一種支持,這是 BLM 在 7 月 8 日發布 SEIS 草案的一個關鍵里程碑。現在關於項目時間表的問題,在我們獲得最終的 SEIS 和支持性記錄之前,我們不會接受 FID BLM 的決定。這樣我們就可以推進 Willow 的建設。現在與 FID 相關,我們可能最早會在今年晚些時候看到,而且很可能會在明年年初看到。

  • Now we are planning as far as schedule to commence a 2022, 2023 winter construction season assuming we have a very favorable Record of Decision. Now that will allow us, Bob, to do civil construction and start putting roads in place for the project.

    現在,假設我們有一個非常有利的決策記錄,我們正在計劃開始 2022 年、2023 年的冬季施工季節。現在這將允許我們,鮑勃,進行土木建築並開始為該項目鋪設道路。

  • I'll come to the alternatives here in a second. We do continue to work on detailed engineering to refine cost and schedule as well as the final development modifications. And the reason I raised the developed modifications is in the current SEIS, there's a new alternative, Alternative E, that is responsive to the Alaska District Court order. And that is to minimize or reduce the surface impact on the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area.

    稍後我將介紹替代方案。我們確實繼續致力於詳細的工程設計,以優化成本和進度以及最終的開發修改。我提出改進的原因是在當前的 SEIS 中,有一個新的替代方案,替代方案 E,它響應阿拉斯加地區法院的命令。那就是盡量減少或減少對 Teshekpuk 湖特區的地表影響。

  • So that alternative, we think, is a good path forward. it reduces the surface infrastructure and still maintains the estimated recoverable resources that we communicated in the market update of about 600 million barrels. Still looking, Bob, at 180,000 barrels a day gross before royalty for the project. Again, we're committed to Willow, and it remains competitive in the portfolio. We continue to see very strong stakeholder support, including the Alaska Congressional Delegation, the trades and unions. So the key thing is really looking forward to that final SEIS and a supportive Record of Decision.

    因此,我們認為,這種替代方案是一條不錯的前進道路。它減少了地面基礎設施,但仍保持了我們在市場更新中傳達的約 6 億桶的估計可採資源量。鮑勃,在項目特許權使用費之前,每天總產量為 180,000 桶。同樣,我們致力於 Willow,它在產品組合中仍然具有競爭力。我們繼續看到非常強大的利益相關者支持,包括阿拉斯加國會代表團、行業和工會。所以關鍵是真的期待最終的 SEIS 和支持性的決策記錄。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question in line comes from Mr. Neal Dingmann from Truist Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann 先生。

  • Neal Dingmann - MD

    Neal Dingmann - MD

  • My first question, just on value creation. Specifically, you've got a great formulating plan out there talking about 30% plus of the cash from ops going to shareholders. And I'm just wondering -- and then also what appears to be certainly higher than growth, pure-growth average production, which I'd like to see. So I'm wondering, how do you all anticipate sort of on a go-forward best trading value for shareholders? Do you look at per-share-growth metrics? Or what is the best way you like to define it.

    我的第一個問題,只是關於價值創造。具體來說,你有一個很好的製定計劃,其中有 30% 以上的運營現金流向了股東。我只是想知道——還有什麼似乎肯定高於增長,純增長的平均產量,我希望看到。所以我想知道,你們如何預期股東的最佳交易價值?您是否查看每股增長指標?或者您喜歡定義它的最佳方式是什麼。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, Neal, we look at all the different ways of thinking about shareholder value. And I think it starts, to your point earlier, that we have a commitment to return at least 30% of the cash from operations. Not free cash flow, cash from operations, back to the shareholder. If you look at our track record, it's been well over 40% as the commodity prices strengthened and the quality of the investment program and what we're doing to continue to lower cost of supply, has been sort of an active mantra inside the company.

    好吧,尼爾,我們看看考慮股東價值的所有不同方式。我認為,就您之前的觀點而言,我們承諾從運營中返還至少 30% 的現金。不是自由現金流,運營現金,返還給股東。如果你看看我們的業績記錄,隨著商品價格走強,投資計劃的質量以及我們為繼續降低供應成本所做的工作,已經超過 40%,這在公司內部一直是一種積極的口頭禪.

  • So I'd say what we're trying to do is reduce our capital intensity. We're trying to manage the capital as low as we can for the scope that we'd like to commit. So we go into our planning cycle thinking what is our view of the macro and that sets an amount. We can afford the capital we can invest, having taken 30% of our cash right off the top. We think that's a better value proposition to the shareholders rather than just focusing on either growth or return of capital. So it is a combination of the two. We want to grow and develop the company over the long haul. We want to make sure that the shareholders are getting an adequate part of that cash back right off the top.

    所以我想說我們正在努力做的是降低我們的資本密集度。我們正試圖在我們希望承諾的範圍內盡可能低地管理資本。所以我們進入我們的計劃週期,思考我們對宏觀的看法是什麼,並設定一個數量。我們可以負擔得起我們可以投資的資金,因為我們已經從頂部拿出了 30% 的現金。我們認為這對股東來說是一個更好的價值主張,而不是僅僅關注增長或資本回報。所以它是兩者的結合。我們希望長期發展和發展公司。我們希望確保股東能夠立即獲得足夠的現金返還。

  • So we have to live with the capital or the cash that's left over. And then in the course of that, we recognize that the value of the balance sheet, which is like another asset, a huge asset inside the company, and we want to make sure that the balance sheet is as strong as it's possible to be, which means we'll carry some cash and we'll carry some cash on the balance sheet because of the volatility we see in the commodity markets, the scope that we want to execute to grow and develop the company, and we're not shooting -- we don't have a growth target in mind. It's an output from our plans to make sure that we're maximizing our returns on and of capital.

    所以我們必須忍受剩餘的資本或現金。然後在此過程中,我們認識到資產負債表的價值,它就像另一項資產,是公司內部的一項巨大資產,我們希望確保資產負債表盡可能強大,這意味著我們將攜帶一些現金,我們將在資產負債表上攜帶一些現金,因為我們在商品市場中看到的波動性,我們希望執行以發展和發展公司的範圍,我們不會射擊——我們心中沒有增長目標。這是我們計劃的輸出,以確保我們最大化我們的資本回報。

  • So we'll adjust our plans to make sure that we're hitting those two really key components, returns on and of capital. And then out of that comes a production number and a sequencing of the projects to allow the further growth in the development of the company over the long haul.

    因此,我們將調整我們的計劃,以確保我們達到這兩個真正關鍵的組成部分,即資本回報率。然後從中得出生產數量和項目順序,以使公司的長期發展進一步增長。

  • Neal Dingmann - MD

    Neal Dingmann - MD

  • Yes, I love that financial flexibility, Ryan. I mean, a lot of even the bigger ones don't have it right now. And then lastly, maybe just a question for Jack on domestic OFS inflation. Jack, is it prudent to lock in other than rigs? Are you thinking about locking in maybe some other long-term contracts? I guess, where I'm going with this is, I heard some folks out there are locking in pipe even though they can't technically lock in the price, whatever it is, six months, nine months from now. And so I'm just thinking, as you see the tightness out there right now, what are you guys doing to mitigate that?

    是的,我喜歡這種財務靈活性,瑞恩。我的意思是,很多甚至更大的現在都沒有它。最後,也許只是關於國內 OFS 通脹的問題。傑克,除了鑽機以外,鎖定是謹慎的嗎?您是否正在考慮鎖定其他一些長期合同?我想,我要說的是,我聽說外面有些人在鎖定管道,即使他們在技術上無法鎖定價格,不管是什麼,六個月,九個月後。所以我只是在想,當你看到現在的緊張局勢時,你們正在做些什麼來緩解這種情況?

  • Jack Harper - EVP of Lower 48

    Jack Harper - EVP of Lower 48

  • Sure. We value flexibility in general in the program. We do have some modest amount of our rigs and frac spreads contracted. But what we're doing to mitigate that are several things. I mentioned those swaps and trades earlier. By the end of this year, we will have been able to drill 80 three-mile wells in the Permian over the last two years. We're drilling those wells faster. We're employing simulfrac technology in various places. And we're also keeping our programs steady, which we really have always valued, keeping a steady program and also keeping competition amongst our vendors, and we have all those things in place right now. So we're doing all we can, but there is still inflation out there.

    當然。我們普遍重視該計劃的靈活性。我們確實有一些適度的鑽井平台和壓裂價差合同。但是我們正在做的減輕這種情況的有幾件事。我之前提到過那些掉期和交易。到今年年底,在過去兩年中,我們將能夠在二疊紀鑽 80 口 3 英里的井。我們正在更快地鑽這些井。我們在不同的地方採用了simulfrac技術。我們還保持我們的計劃穩定,我們一直非常重視,保持穩定的計劃並保持我們供應商之間的競爭,我們現在擁有所有這些東西。所以我們正在盡我們所能,但仍然存在通貨膨脹。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question online comes from Mr. Leo Mariani from MKM Partners.

    我們的下一個在線問題來自 MKM Partners 的 Leo Mariani 先生。

  • Leo Mariani - MD

    Leo Mariani - MD

  • I was hoping to get a little bit more color around kind of your longer-term LNG plans. Obviously, you guys have entered into a number of facilities, which will, I guess, come online in a handful of years. But some of the prepared comments, you guys referred to kind of reassessing some of your domestic maybe just North America and overall gas potential as potential feedstock for some of these. So any just color around that? I mean, as you look to start-up dates, is it possible you could be drilling more for gas here in the U.S. in a couple of years and ready that feedstock for delivery into some of these facilities? And it sounds like that might be an economically advantageous thing for you to do.

    我希望在您的長期液化天然氣計劃中獲得更多色彩。顯然,你們已經進入了一些設施,我猜這些設施將在幾年內上線。但是一些準備好的評論,你們提到重新評估你們國內的一些可能只是北美和作為其中一些潛在原料的整體天然氣潛力。那麼周圍有什麼顏色嗎?我的意思是,當您關注啟動日期時,您是否有可能在幾年內在美國這裡鑽探更多的天然氣,並準備好將原料運送到其中一些設施?聽起來這對你來說可能是一件經濟上有利的事情。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think, Leo, we're trying to think ahead as well, and it may spur some different sort of development plans inside our Lower 48 and Canadian portfolios. But just a recognition that we have quite a bit of gas resource and its associated gas primarily that comes with the oil production that we're doing. But we're thinking about that in terms of what the pipe add and the capacity adds coming both to the Gulf Coast and going west to California and down to Mexico.

    是的。我認為,Leo,我們也在努力提前思考,這可能會在我們的 Lower 48 和加拿大投資組合中激發一些不同類型的發展計劃。但只是承認我們擁有相當多的天然氣資源及其伴生氣主要來自我們正在進行的石油生產。但我們正在考慮管道增加的內容以及來自墨西哥灣沿岸和向西到加利福尼亞和向下到墨西哥的容量增加。

  • So we're -- as Bill described earlier, we're a top-three gas marketer in North America. So we know where these markets are going. We have an informed view of where these markets are going and how we can supply gas into those markets. And to make sure, to the extent there's an arbitrage between domestic Henry Hub and Europe and Asian prices, that we have the opportunity to step into that and take advantage of that arbitrage. And we're not just stuck with what marker in North America that we're selling our gas to.

    所以我們 - 正如比爾之前描述的那樣,我們是北美排名前三的天然氣營銷商。所以我們知道這些市場的去向。我們對這些市場的走向以及我們如何向這些市場供應天然氣有充分的了解。並且為了確保,在國內亨利中心與歐洲和亞洲價格之間存在套利的情況下,我們有機會介入並利用這種套利。而且我們不只是停留在我們將天然氣出售給北美的哪個標記上。

  • So it is a very integrated look at it and a very informed look at it to make sure that when we see that these arbitrages open up between the various regions around the globe that we can take advantage of that and be in a position to take advantage of that when others can't do it.

    因此,這是一個非常綜合的視角,也是一個非常有見地的視角,以確保當我們看到這些套利在全球各個地區之間開放時,我們可以利用它並能夠利用它當別人做不到的時候。

  • Leo Mariani - MD

    Leo Mariani - MD

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then just a quick question on the Eagle Ford for you folks. I certainly noticed there was a pretty healthy jump in production in the Eagle Ford this quarter. Had kind of been declining a little bit in the last handful of quarters. Is that kind of maybe now firmly back in growth mode? I know you guys have alluded to the past to kind of ramping that up in the next couple of years. And maybe this quarter, it was just better than expected, maybe you had a number of chunky pads come online all at once that kind of drove it. But just thoughts on Eagle Ford growth, is that going to continue to be a sharply growing asset through the end of the year into next year?

    好的。這很有幫助。然後只是一個關於鷹福特的簡單問題。我當然注意到本季度 Eagle Ford 的產量出現了相當健康的增長。在過去的幾個季度中有點下降。這種可能現在已經堅定地回到增長模式了嗎?我知道你們在過去提到過在接下來的幾年裡會加大力度。也許本季度,它比預期的要好,也許你有許多厚實的墊子同時上線,那種驅動它。但只要想想 Eagle Ford 的增長,到今年年底到明年,它是否會繼續成為一項急劇增長的資產?

  • Jack Harper - EVP of Lower 48

    Jack Harper - EVP of Lower 48

  • This is Jack again. Good question. Yes, first off, I'm very proud of the work the team is doing down in the Eagle Ford in all aspects of the business. But in the second quarter, specifically, there were some disproportionately weighted completions in the Eagle Ford. We're also having great success continuing that refrac program there. And in general, the Eagle Ford is growing toward its plateaued production, but it's not there yet. So it will be a continued source of Lower 48 production growth.

    這又是傑克。好問題。是的,首先,我為團隊在 Eagle Ford 在業務的各個方面所做的工作感到非常自豪。但具體而言,在第二季度,Eagle Ford 有一些不成比例的加權完成。我們在那裡繼續進行折射計劃也取得了巨大的成功。總的來說,Eagle Ford 正朝著穩定生產的方向發展,但還沒有實現。因此,它將成為較低的 48 產量增長的持續來源。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Raphaël DuBois from Societe Generale.

    我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Raphaël DuBois。

  • Raphaël DuBois - Equity Analyst

    Raphaël DuBois - Equity Analyst

  • The first one is related to Qatar NFE. It will be very helpful if you could maybe give us a bit more color so that we can model what you will earn through this deal. For instance, can you maybe clarify whether the gas to be sold will be oil-linked or will it be linked to a gas price hub? Any premium maybe to expect from the fact it will be a low-carbon footprint? Or maybe can you compare the profitability of NFE with your two other LNG participations? That would be very helpful.

    第一個與卡塔爾 NFE 有關。如果您能給我們更多的顏色,這將非常有幫助,這樣我們就可以模擬您將通過這筆交易獲得的收益。例如,您能否澄清要出售的天然氣是與石油掛鉤還是與天然氣價格中心掛鉤?任何溢價可能會從低碳足蹟的事實中得到預期?或者,您能否將 NFE 的盈利能力與您參與的另外兩家液化天然氣公司進行比較?那將非常有幫助。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Let me start, and I'll kick it to Bill a little bit. I think a lot of that is still work to be done. I think Raphaël, in terms of the marketing of the gas will probably follow very similar approaches to what Qatar has done in the past. But Bill can supply a little bit of view. I think the focus of the project right now is the construction in EPC.

    讓我開始吧,我會把它踢給比爾一點。我認為其中還有很多工作要做。我認為拉斐爾在天然氣營銷方面可能會採用與卡塔爾過去所做的非常相似的方法。但比爾可以提供一點觀點。我認為現在項目的重點是EPC的建設。

  • Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Bullock - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, I think that's right, Ryan. And I would just reflect on Qatargas and QatarEnergy has been very, very successful. They're one of the largest gas LNG marketers in the world. They've been very successful about placing those volumes, and the project will continue to have those places through that format. So I think watch the space, but just reflect that Qatargas, QatarEnergy have been very, very effective at placing gas over time into valued markets.

    是的,我認為這是對的,瑞恩。我只想回顧一下卡塔爾天然氣公司和卡塔爾能源公司一直非常非常成功。他們是世界上最大的天然氣液化天然氣營銷商之一。他們在放置這些卷方面非常成功,並且該項目將繼續通過這種格式放置這些位置。所以我認為觀察這個空間,但只是反映卡塔爾天然氣公司,卡塔爾能源公司一直非常非常有效地將天然氣隨著時間的推移進入有價值的市場。

  • Raphaël DuBois - Equity Analyst

    Raphaël DuBois - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And maybe another question. At full-year results, you gave us your thoughts on the increase in U.S. supply we should expect. And if memory is right, you mentioned 900,000 barrels per day. I was wondering if you could maybe refresh that thought eight months into the year? And maybe give us your initial thoughts for the next couple of years.

    好的。偉大的。也許還有另一個問題。在全年業績中,您向我們提供了您對我們應該預期的美國供應增加的看法。如果沒記錯的話,你提到了每天 900,000 桶。我想知道你是否可以在一年後的八個月裡刷新這個想法?也許在接下來的幾年裡給我們你的初步想法。

  • Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

    Ryan Lance - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Raphaël, I think we're still in that 900,000 barrel a day. And let me -- that's an exit -- entry-to-exit kind of number for 2022. And we see maybe a similar but maybe slightly lower number as we go into 2023 if these commodity prices stay at the kind of levels that we're seeing and we get the inflationary forces that we're seeing in the Lower 48 and the constraints there are on the supply chain and on labor and some of the other key pieces of the spend that this industry does in the Permian primarily. So yes, we're pretty -- those are the kind of entry-to-exit kind of rates that we see for this year and next year.

    是的,Raphaël,我認為我們仍然在每天 900,000 桶中。讓我 - 這是一個退出 - 2022 年的進入到退出類型的數字。如果這些商品價格保持在我們的水平,我們可能會看到一個類似但可能略低的數字,因為我們進入 2023 年。重新看到,我們得到了我們在 48 歲以下地區看到的通貨膨脹力量,以及供應鍊和勞動力的限制,以及該行業主要在二疊紀所做的其他一些關鍵支出。所以是的,我們很漂亮——這些是我們今年和明年看到的那種進入到退出的利率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mark Keener for closing remarks.

    謝謝你。目前我們沒有其他問題。我現在將把電話轉回給 Mark Keener 做結束語。

  • Mark Keener - VP of IR

    Mark Keener - VP of IR

  • Thanks, Richard, and thanks to all who joined today's call. And finally, thank you all for the kind sentiments. They are appreciated. And with that, I'll pass it back to you to wrap this up, Richard. Thank you.

    謝謝理查德,也感謝所有參加今天電話會議的人。最後,謝謝大家的好意。他們受到讚賞。有了這個,我會把它傳給你來結束這個,理查德。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝你們,女士們,先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。