康菲 (COP) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Q3 2022 ConocoPhillips Earnings Conference Call. My name is Richard, and I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to [Phil Gresh], Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

歡迎參加 2022 年第三季度康菲石油公司收益電話會議。我的名字是理查德，我將成為你今天電話的接線員。 （操作員說明）我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 [Phil Gresh]。先生，您可以開始了。

Yes. Thank you, Richard, and welcome to everyone joining us for our third quarter earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Bill Bullock, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Dominic Macklon, Executive Vice President of Strategy, Sustainability and Technology; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Global Operations; Jack Harper, Executive Vice President of Lower 48; and Tim Leach, adviser to the CEO. Ryan and Bill will kick off the call with opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions.

是的。謝謝你，理查德，歡迎大家加入我們的第三季度財報電話會議。今天的電話會議是康菲石油公司領導團隊的幾位成員，包括董事長兼首席執行官 Ryan Lance； Bill Bullock，執行副總裁兼首席財務官； Dominic Macklon，戰略、可持續發展和技術執行副總裁； Nick Olds，全球運營執行副總裁；傑克哈珀，Lower 48 執行副總裁；和首席執行官顧問 Tim Leach。 Ryan 和 Bill 將以開場白開始電話會議，之後團隊將回答您的問題。

Just a few quick reminders. First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a presentation which you can find on our Investor Relations website. Second, during this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. Finally, we will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website. With that, I will turn the call over to Ryan.

只是一些快速的提醒。首先，隨著今天的發布，我們發布了補充財務材料和演示文稿，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到它們。其次，在這次電話會議中，我們將根據當前的預期做出前瞻性陳述。由於今天的新聞稿和我們定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的因素，實際結果可能會有所不同。最後，我們將參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。可以在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上找到與最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的對賬。有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Ryan。

Thank you, Phil. Before I get into our strong results for the quarter, including record production, I'd like to touch on a few big-picture thoughts that are top of mind for us. First, inflation and supply chain constraints continue across the entire economy and our industry. This is particularly true in the U.S. shale, where rapidly escalating costs combined with extremely tight supply are limiting the pace of industry-wide production growth.

謝謝你，菲爾。在談到我們本季度的強勁業績（包括創紀錄的製作）之前，我想先談談我們最關心的一些大局觀。首先，通貨膨脹和供應鏈限制在整個經濟和我們的行業中持續存在。在美國頁岩油尤其如此，成本迅速上升，加上供應極度緊張，限制了全行業產量增長的步伐。

Second, we believe that the world is going to need investments in medium- and long-cycle production in addition to U.S. shale plays. The depth and quality of our U.S. unconventional inventory combined with our diverse global portfolio has us well positioned to meet these long-term supply challenges. And finally, a successful energy transition must meet society's fundamental need for secure, reliable and affordable energy while progressing to a lower carbon future.

其次，我們認為，除了美國的頁岩油，世界還需要對中長周期生產進行投資。我們美國非常規庫存的深度和質量加上我們多樣化的全球產品組合，使我們能夠很好地應對這些長期供應挑戰。最後，成功的能源轉型必須滿足社會對安全、可靠和負擔得起的能源的基本需求，同時邁向低碳未來。

This requires an all-of-the-above solution. Obstacles that prevent the global market from functioning properly are not going to help the American consumer and would be disastrous for our allies. Governments can help by enacting policies that encourage investments in developing lower-emission oil and gas resources that will be needed to get the world through to transition. This includes fiscal stability, streamlining permitting and supporting critical infrastructure for an all-of-the-above solution.

這需要上述所有解決方案。阻礙全球市場正常運轉的障礙不會幫助美國消費者，對我們的盟友來說將是災難性的。政府可以通過制定鼓勵投資開發低排放石油和天然氣資源的政策來提供幫助，這些資源將是世界過渡所必需的。這包括財政穩定、簡化許可和支持所有上述解決方案的關鍵基礎設施。

Now against this backdrop, we believe that ConocoPhillips is well positioned to win in any environment. We remain committed to delivering on our triple mandate of responsibly and reliably meeting energy transition pathway demand, delivering competitive returns on and of capital and progressing towards achieving our net-zero operational emissions ambition.

現在在這種背景下，我們相信康菲石油公司有能力在任何環境中取勝。我們將繼續致力於履行我們的三重使命，即負責任且可靠地滿足能源轉型路徑的需求，提供具有競爭力的資本回報，並朝著實現我們的淨零運營排放目標邁進。

As further evidence of this commitment, our third quarter results demonstrated record total company production. Lower 48 production hit a milestone at over 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and we anticipate further growth in the fourth quarter. On returns, we generated a trailing 12-month ROCE of 27%. We increased our ordinary dividend by 11% to $0.51 per share, and we announced a $0.70 per-share VROC for the first quarter of 2023, and we increased our share buyback authorization by $20 billion.

作為這一承諾的進一步證明，我們第三季度的業績顯示了創紀錄的公司總產量。較低的 48 產量達到了每天超過 100 萬桶石油當量的里程碑，我們預計第四季度將進一步增長。在回報方面，我們產生了 27% 的過去 12 個月 ROCE。我們將普通股息提高了 11% 至每股 0.51 美元，我們宣布了 2023 年第一季度每股 0.70 美元的 VROC，我們將股票回購授權增加了 200 億美元。

Additionally, we'll return $15 billion of capital for 2022, which represents over 50% of our projected CFO, well in excess of our greater than 30% annual commitment. Now we believe that our CFO-based returns framework differentiates us relative to peers. And finally, our net zero operational emissions ambition, we recently announced a new medium-term methane intensity commitment consistent with our recent objectives of joining OGMP 2.0.

此外，我們將在 2022 年返還 150 億美元的資本，占我們預計 CFO 的 50% 以上，遠遠超過我們每年 30% 以上的承諾。現在我們相信，我們基於 CFO 的回報框架使我們與同行不同。最後，為了實現我們的淨零運營排放目標，我們最近宣布了一項新的中期甲烷強度承諾，這與我們最近加入 OGMP 2.0 的目標一致。

From a strategic perspective, I want to provide an update on our global LNG initiatives. First, we were recently selected to participate in Qatar's North Field South project, following our selection earlier this year to participate in the North Field East, which adds to our long positive relationship with Qatar Energy.

從戰略的角度來看，我想介紹一下我們全球液化天然氣計劃的最新情況。首先，繼今年早些時候我們被選中參與北油田東項目之後，我們最近被選中參與卡塔爾的北油田南項目，這增加了我們與卡塔爾能源的長期積極關係。

Second, we agreed to terminal services for a 15-year period at the prospective Brunsbuettel LNG import terminal in Germany. And third, we continue to progress our Port Arthur LNG project with Sempra, which we expect to reach FID by early next year.

其次，我們同意在德國未來的 Brunsbuettel LNG 進口終端提供為期 15 年的終端服務。第三，我們繼續與 Sempra 一起推進我們的亞瑟港液化天然氣項目，我們預計該項目將在明年初達到 FID。

Now overall, we continue to believe the substitution of natural gas in place of coal represents an opportunity for significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions. This should drive global LNG demand and related opportunities well into the future.

現在總的來說，我們仍然認為用天然氣代替煤炭是顯著減少全球溫室氣體排放的機會。這應該會在未來推動全球液化天然氣需求和相關機會。

Putting this all together, we remain constructive on the outlook for the industry, and we have a deep portfolio of short-, medium- and longer-cycle low-cost supply assets that generate strong cash flow as we continue to deliver on our triple mandate. Now let me turn the call over to Bill to cover our overall performance for the quarter.

綜上所述，我們對該行業的前景保持建設性，我們擁有豐富的短期、中期和長期低成本供應資產組合，隨著我們繼續履行三重使命，這些資產產生強勁的現金流.現在讓我把電話轉給比爾來介紹我們本季度的整體表現。

Well, thanks, Ryan. From a financial standpoint, we had a solid third quarter. We generated $3.60 per share in adjusted earnings. Production was over 1,750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which included our previously guided approximately 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day impact from scheduled turnarounds as well as some impacts from the temporary force majeure in Libya in July. For the fourth quarter, we do not expect any material turnaround impacts.

好吧，謝謝，瑞恩。從財務角度來看，我們的第三季度表現穩健。我們的調整後收益為每股 3.60 美元。產量超過每天 1,750,000 桶石油當量，其中包括我們先前指導的每天約 15,000 桶石油當量的計劃周轉影響以及 7 月利比亞臨時不可抗力的一些影響。對於第四季度，我們預計不會有任何重大的轉機影響。

Lower 48 production averaged a record 1,013,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, including 668,000 from the Permian, 224,000 from the Eagle Ford and 96,000 from the Bakken.

較低的 48 日產量平均達到創紀錄的 1,013,000 桶石油當量，其中包括來自二疊紀的 668,000 桶、來自鷹灘的 224,000 桶和來自巴肯的 96,000 桶。

Cash provided from operating activities was $8.7 billion. Now this included a $15 billion benefit from working capital, primarily related to the timing of Norway tax payments and lower receivables. Excluding working capital, cash from operations was $7.2 billion. APLNG distributions were $257 million in the quarter, and we expect fourth quarter distributions to be about $600 million.

經營活動提供的現金為 87 億美元。現在，這包括來自營運資本的 150 億美元收益，主要與挪威納稅的時間安排和較低的應收賬款有關。不包括營運資金，運營現金為 72 億美元。 APLNG 本季度的分配額為 2.57 億美元，我們預計第四季度的分配額約為 6 億美元。

On capital, we invested $2.5 billion back into the business in the third quarter, including around $300 million for acquisitions. This resulted in free cash flow of $4.7 billion, which more than covered the $4.3 billion we returned to shareholders in the quarter. Factoring in $400 million of disposition proceeds, ending cash and short-term investments were $10.7 billion at September 30, up from $8.5 billion at June 30.

在資本方面，我們在第三季度向該業務投資了 25 億美元，其中包括約 3 億美元用於收購。這導致了 47 億美元的自由現金流，超過了我們在本季度返還給股東的 43 億美元。考慮到 4 億美元的處置收益，截至 9 月 30 日，期末現金和短期投資為 107 億美元，高於 6 月 30 日的 85 億美元。

Turning to guidance. We still expect full year production of 1.74 million barrels of oil equivalent per day with a fourth quarter guidance range of 1.74 million to 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. On costs, we've increased full year adjusted operating cost guidance to $7.7 billion from $7.5 billion, and this is driven by inflationary impacts. We have also increased full year organic CapEx to $8.1 billion from $7.8 billion, also driven by inflationary impacts and partner-operated working interests. Partially offsetting these increases, we have reduced full year DD&A guidance from $7.6 billion to $7.5 billion.

轉向指導。我們仍預計全年產量為每天 174 萬桶油當量，第四季度指導範圍為每天 174 萬至 180 萬桶油當量。在成本方面，我們將全年調整後的運營成本指引從 75 億美元上調至 77 億美元，這是受通脹影響的推動。我們還將全年有機資本支出從 78 億美元增加到 81 億美元，這也受到通貨膨脹影響和合作夥伴經營的工作利益的推動。為了部分抵消這些增長，我們將全年 DD&A 指導從 76 億美元減少到 75 億美元。

In terms of 2023 guidance, we anticipate providing full details with our fourth quarter earnings call in early February. We will also be hosting an Analyst and Investor Meeting next spring at the New York Stock Exchange, so please stay tuned for more details. And with that, I'll turn the call back to Ryan.

就 2023 年的指導而言，我們預計在 2 月初的第四季度財報電話會議上提供完整的細節。明年春天，我們還將在紐約證券交易所舉辦分析師和投資者會議，敬請關注更多詳情。有了這個，我會把電話轉回給瑞安。

Thank you, Bill. Now before we go to Q&A, I wanted to spend a minute discussing a few important organizational announcements. First, Jack Harper, our EVP of the Lower 48, informed me that he will be leaving the company due to a family medical situation. And I know I speak on behalf of the entire organization when I say that Jack will be greatly missed.

謝謝你，比爾。現在，在我們進行問答之前，我想花一點時間討論一些重要的組織公告。首先，我們的 Lower 48 執行副總裁 Jack Harper 通知我，由於家庭醫療狀況，他將離開公司。我知道我代表整個組織發言，我會非常想念傑克。

Now in conjunction with this announcement, Nick Olds, currently our Executive Vice President of Global Operations, will become the Executive Vice President, Lower 48; and Andy O'Brien, currently our Vice President and Treasurer, will become Senior Vice President, Global Operations and join the executive leadership team. Now with that, I'd be -- I wanted to turn the call over to Jack and give him the opportunity to say a few thoughts.

現在，隨著該公告的發布，現任我們全球運營執行副總裁的 Nick Olds 將成為 Lower 48 的執行副總裁；現任副總裁兼財務主管 Andy O'Brien 將成為全球運營高級副總裁併加入執行領導團隊。現在有了這個，我想 - 我想把電話轉給傑克，讓他有機會發表一些想法。

Thanks, Ryan. As Ryan mentioned, I will be leaving ConocoPhillips due to a family medical situation. It has truly been a privilege to work for both Concho and ConocoPhillips over the past 16.5 years. When Concho agreed to the merger with ConocoPhillips, we did so because we believed that the transaction would create a uniquely strong and differentiated company, and I cannot feel better about how this has played out.

謝謝，瑞恩。正如瑞安所說，由於家庭醫療狀況，我將離開康菲石油公司。在過去的 16.5 年裡，為 Concho 和 ConocoPhillips 工作確實是一種榮幸。當 Concho 同意與 ConocoPhillips 合併時，我們這樣做是因為我們相信這筆交易將創建一家獨特而強大且差異化的公司，而我對這件事的結果感到非常滿意。

This may be one of the most dynamic times that we've ever seen in the industry. And my competitive side certainly makes me wish that I could stay on board for what is ahead. However, I'm confident that we have set up the team for success with our organizational structure and planned transition over the next few months. With that, let me turn the call back over to Ryan.

這可能是我們在行業中見過的最具活力的時代之一。我的競爭優勢當然讓我希望我能留在船上，迎接未來。但是，我相信我們已經通過我們的組織結構和計劃在接下來的幾個月中的過渡建立了成功的團隊。有了這個，讓我把電話轉回給瑞安。

Thank you, Jack. And I know I speak for everybody at ConocoPhillips. We have you and your family in all our prayers. So with that, let me turn it back over to Phil, and we'll get going with the Q&A.

謝謝你，傑克。我知道我代表康菲石油公司的每個人發言。我們所有的祈禱中都有你和你的家人。因此，讓我把它交給菲爾，我們將開始問答環節。

Great. Thanks, Ryan. (Operator Instructions) And with that, Richard, we'll turn it back to you.

偉大的。謝謝，瑞恩。 （操作員說明）然後，理查德，我們會把它還給你。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question on line comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們在線的第一個問題來自高盛的 Neil Mehta。

Ryan, I wanted to kick off with you on the LNG strategy. And we've seen a lot of interesting individual announcements. But maybe you could pull it all together and talk about how you see these coming together for how Conoco thinks about LNG as part of its portfolio. And as it relates to that, maybe you could talk about risks around long-term LNG as we have a lot of new supply coming in from Qatar in the U.S. by the middle of the decade. And do you worry about spending on these projects into what could be a sloppier market towards the end of the decade?

Ryan，我想和你一起開始液化天然氣戰略。我們已經看到了很多有趣的個人公告。但也許你可以把它們放在一起，談談你如何看待這些結合在一起，以了解康菲石油公司如何將液化天然氣視為其投資組合的一部分。與此相關的是，也許你可以談論長期液化天然氣的風險，因為到本世紀中期，我們有大量來自美國卡塔爾的新供應。您是否擔心在這些項目上的支出會在本世紀末進入一個可能會更加草率的市場？

No. Thank you, Neil. Appreciate the question. Yes, I think for some context around the company, we've been involved in LNG for a long, long time. You think about our liquefaction technology that we have that's being used by many, many operators around the world today, we effectively started this business back in the '60s with our project up in Kenai and delivering 40 years of gas to our Japan marketing friends.

不，謝謝你，尼爾。欣賞這個問題。是的，我認為就公司的某些情況而言，我們從事液化天然氣已經很長時間了。您想想我們擁有的液化技術，今天世界各地的許多運營商都在使用它，我們在 60 年代有效地開始了這項業務，我們在基奈的項目向我們的日本營銷朋友提供了 40 年的天然氣。

So we've been in this business for a long time. And then when you look at the transactions that we've done over the last couple years, we have a growing resource position in the U.S. so creating more demand and -- just makes a lot of sense coming out of the U.S. So as we step back and we started thinking about it, combined with our views of the energy transition and the view that LNG is going to be a necessary fuel that can replace coal, similar to the way the gas has done that in the United States and reduced the emissions profile in the U.S. So we think this is something the globe is going to be needing as we go through this energy transition.

所以我們從事這項業務已經很長時間了。然後，當您查看我們在過去幾年中完成的交易時，我們在美國的資源地位不斷增長，因此創造了更多需求，而且——從美國出來很有意義。所以當我們邁出回過頭來，我們開始思考這個問題，結合我們對能源轉型的看法，以及液化天然氣將成為替代煤炭的必要燃料的觀點，類似於天然氣在美國的做法並減少了排放因此，我們認為這是全球在我們經歷能源轉型時所需要的。

So you put all that together, and we said back over a year ago and said this was a piece that we wanted to grow in our portfolio, so it started with the opportunity at APLNG. We picked up some more interest there. Then we got named in the North Field expansion project and then more recently here in the North Field South and then combined with wanting to do something in the U.S. to take advantage of a position that we have here and develop more demand for the product in the U.S. We looked at who we thought was the best positioned with permits and opportunity, and that's when we decided to join up with Sempra.

所以你把所有這些放在一起，我們在一年前說過，這是我們希望在我們的投資組合中增長的一部分，所以它從 APLNG 的機會開始。我們在那裡獲得了更多的興趣。然後我們在 North Field 擴建項目中被命名，最近又在 North Field South 被命名，然後再加上想在美國做點什麼，以利用我們在這裡的地位並在美國開發對產品的更多需求美國 我們研究了我們認為在許可和機會方面處於最佳位置的人，這就是我們決定加入 Sempra 的時候。

And as you've seen, we expect to reach FID early next year at Port Arthur, and that gives us some optionality also on the West Coast of Mexico opportunity that they have as well. So when we looked at all this, trying to build this business for the long term and complemented now by our German regas opportunity that we've entered into.

正如您所看到的，我們預計明年初在亞瑟港達到 FID，這也為我們在墨西哥西海岸提供了一些選擇，他們也有機會。因此，當我們看到這一切時，試圖建立長期的業務，現在我們已經進入了我們的德國 regas 機會。

So we want to get into that full value chain. We've got a great commercial organization that can optimize around this. And we just think this is going to be a business that's going to be long term and going to be substantial well into the future.

所以我們想進入整個價值鏈。我們有一個很棒的商業組織可以圍繞這個進行優化。我們只是認為這將是一項長期的業務，並且在未來會變得非常重要。

Now it's going to be -- there's going to be periods of time when supply exceeds demand and when the demand exceeds supply. And that's more to your point, there may be a period coming later this decade for a year or 2 where the pricing maybe get a little soft because of a lot of projects are coming in. But again, we're entering this into 20- and 30-year contracts. So we just have a long-term view that this is going to be a really good business and one that ConocoPhillips can excel at, given our history and the capability inside the company, and we expect to -- want to try to build more of this business over time.

現在它將是 - 將會有一段時間供過於求以及需求超過供應。這更符合您的觀點，可能會在本十年後期的一年或兩年內出現一段時間，由於有很多項目進入，定價可能會變得有點軟。但同樣，我們正在進入 20-和 30 年的合同。因此，我們只是從長遠來看，考慮到我們的歷史和公司內部的能力，這將是一項非常好的業務，康菲石油公司可以擅長的業務，我們期望——想要嘗試建立更多的這項業務隨著時間的推移。

Yes. That's really clear, Ryan. And the follow-up is just on capital spending for 2023, recognizing we're going to get more thoughts it sounds like here in February on it. But if we took the $8.1 billion as the starting point, what are some of the moving pieces as you go into '23 that we can bridge off of?

是的。這真的很清楚，瑞恩。後續只是關於 2023 年的資本支出，認識到我們將在 2 月得到更多的想法。但是，如果我們以 81 億美元為起點，那麼在進入 23 世紀時，我們可以克服哪些變化？

Yes, Neil, I would -- I guess I would start by saying I'd probably take the last half of this year, that kind of pace, annualize that for our base business as we think about that going into 2023. We're not looking at trying to add scope into our Lower 48 operation given the kind of environment on inflation that we see. So starting there, we'll assess what we think inflation looks like for next year.

是的，尼爾，我會——我想我首先會說我可能會在今年下半年採取這種步伐，在我們考慮到 2023 年的時候，將我們的基礎業務年度化。我們是考慮到我們所看到的通脹環境，我們不考慮嘗試為我們的 48 低點操作增加範圍。因此，從那裡開始，我們將評估我們認為明年的通脹情況。

And importantly, we'll assess what our partners are doing in terms of the scope that they're trying to execute that we have to fund our share of. So those are some unknowns that was going to, but I'd say take the base business which is kind of ratable off the second half of this year as you think about going into next year. And then the new businesses that we're trying to grow and expand and develop the company around NFE and NFS, the 2 Qatari projects, we'll be funding that next year.

重要的是，我們將根據我們必須為我們的份額提供資金的範圍來評估我們的合作夥伴正在做的事情。因此，這些都是一些未知數，但我想說的是，當您考慮進入明年時，今年下半年可能會受到一定程度的影響。然後是我們試圖圍繞 NFE 和 NFS 發展公司的新業務，這兩個卡塔爾項目，我們將在明年為其提供資金。

Again, we hope to reach FID at Sempra, so there's some funding associated with that next year. And then finally, Willow, we hope to be getting into some construction and activities next year with Willow. Obviously, we won't do that until we have a permit in place that allows us to go start up the funding of that project. So that's the base business, and those are the kind of adders as we look into 2023.

同樣，我們希望在 Sempra 達到 FID，因此明年會有一些與此相關的資金。最後，Willow，我們希望明年能和 Willow 一起進行一些建設和活動。顯然，在我們獲得允許我們開始為該項目提供資金的許可證之前，我們不會這樣做。這就是基礎業務，而這些是我們展望 2023 年的加法器。

Our next question on line comes from Stephen Richardson from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個在線問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Richardson。

Ryan, I was wondering if you could maybe talk a little bit about how you're thinking about the cash return envelope for '23, just acknowledging there's a lot of variability in the environment. But obviously, you've had a really strong year this year. And I think you talked last quarter about how we're trending kind of closer to 50% of cash flow from hubs, certainly a lot higher than your baseline.

Ryan，我想知道您是否可以談談您如何考慮 23 年的現金返還信封，只是承認環境中存在很多可變性。但顯然，今年你的表現非常強勁。而且我認為您在上個季度談到了我們如何趨向於接近 50% 的來自樞紐的現金流，當然比您的基線要高很多。

And so I think we get this question a little bit is just how do we think about '23 with the moving parts, acknowledging what you just talked about with capital, and the environment's uncertain. But if we have the environment that we have today into next year, I wonder if you can maybe talk about how you're thinking about that then,

因此，我認為我們有一點問題是，我們如何看待 23 年的運動部件，承認你剛才談到的資本，以及環境的不確定性。但是如果我們有今天到明年的環境，我想知道你是否可以談談你當時的想法，

Yes, Stephen, I think if we have the macro-environment today that's similar to next year that's similar to the average over the course of 2022, I think you should expect a similar level of distributions. And I think we signaled that a little bit with setting the first quarter VROC at $0.70 a share. And with these 10 seconds, we look at the macro, and it's going to be similar next year, you ought to expect a similar level of distributions, which is in excess of our 30% commitment.

是的，斯蒂芬，我認為如果我們今天的宏觀環境與明年相似，與 2022 年的平均水平相似，我認為你應該期待類似的分佈水平。我認為我們通過將第一季度 VROC 設定為每股 0.70 美元來暗示這一點。在這 10 秒內，我們看一下宏觀，明年也會類似，你應該期待類似的分佈水平，超過我們 30% 的承諾。

But we're going to watch the macro because we think it's going to be incredibly volatile. But we think we've just got the right value proposition in combination of VROC-based dividend and how we're thinking about buying our shares back, that it's well set up for the kind of volatility we may see. But that would be sort of my comment as you think about going into 2023, it's a function of the macro, which is reasonably strong right now.

但我們會關注宏觀，因為我們認為它會非常不穩定。但我們認為，結合基於 VROC 的股息以及我們如何考慮回購我們的股票，我們剛剛獲得了正確的價值主張，它已經為我們可能看到的那種波動做好了準備。但是，當您考慮進入 2023 年時，這將是我的評論，它是宏觀的功能，目前相當強大。

That's great. Maybe just a follow-up on the Lower 48. Obviously, you've had some really, really strong results and can't say the same of what we've seen in some of the productivity updates from elsewhere in Lower 48 across the industry this quarter. I was wondering if maybe you could talk a little bit about performance versus just the timing of wells and kind of how you're seeing the program evolve, particularly in the Permian where the Lower 48 numbers were really impressive this morning.

那太棒了。也許只是對 Lower 48 的後續跟進。顯然，您已經取得了一些非常非常強勁的結果，並且不能說與我們在整個行業的 Lower 48 其他地方的一些生產力更新中看到的相同本季度。我想知道您是否可以談談性能與井的時間以及您如何看待該計劃的發展，特別是在今天早上較低的 48 數字確實令人印象深刻的二疊紀。

Yes. Thanks, Stephen. This is Jack. Yes, the production is back-half loaded, like we've been talking about. I hope you saw that in the quarter with the progression. We've also seen our OBO plans, our partners targeting increasingly longer laterals than we first anticipated, which of course, yields a lower cost of supply and more economic return.

是的。謝謝，斯蒂芬。這是傑克。是的，就像我們一直在談論的那樣，生產是後半載的。我希望你在本季度看到了這一點。我們還看到了我們的 OBO 計劃，我們的合作夥伴的目標是越來越長的橫向比我們最初預期的，當然，這會產生更低的供應成本和更多的經濟回報。

In the Lower 48, we do expect to see continued growth, as Ryan mentioned, in the fourth quarter and in the Permian should modestly exceed that kind of low single digits that we expect out of the Lower 48 in terms of well productivity, and our plans are progressing as we have planned. We monitor this very closely internally and with our peers externally and really like where we stack up.

正如瑞安所說，在較低的 48 地區，我們確實預計第四季度和二疊紀的持續增長應該適度超過我們預期的較低的 48 地區在井生產力方面的低個位數，以及我們的計劃正在按我們的計劃進行。我們在內部非常密切地監控這一點，並在外部與我們的同行一起監控，非常喜歡我們堆疊的地方。

Our next question on the line comes from Doug Leggate from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Jack, I wish you well and hope our paths cross again at some point. Good luck. I've got 2 quick questions, if I may. Bill, I wonder if I could deal first with the deferred tax in the quarter. I think we've heard you talk in the past about when you would hit full cash tax in the Lower 48. Has that been delayed somehow? Or maybe you could just walk through what happened in the quarter. It's quite a big deferred tax number, which we're happy to see obviously, but any updated guidance would be appreciated.

傑克，祝你一切順利，希望我們的道路在某個時候再次相交。祝你好運。如果可以的話，我有 2 個簡單的問題。比爾，我想知道我是否可以先處理本季度的遞延稅。我想我們過去聽過你談論你什麼時候會在下 48 州達到全額現金稅。這是否被推遲了？或者，也許您可以簡單回顧一下本季度發生的事情。這是一個相當大的遞延稅號，我們很高興看到這一點，但任何更新的指導將不勝感激。

Yes, sure. Happy to, Doug. So first of all, the increase in third quarter tax rates on earnings reflects a shift in our geographic mix of earnings primarily due to increase in Norway's pretax earnings. And you'd expect that given the high gas price environment we're seeing in Continental Europe. So as you know, Norway is a fairly high tax environment, so you've seen our effective tax rate increase from 39% in the third quarter from 32% in the second quarter.

是的，當然。很高興，道格。因此，首先，第三季度收益稅率的增加反映了我們收益地理組合的轉變，主要是由於挪威稅前收益的增加。鑑於我們在歐洲大陸看到的高油價環境，您會期望這一點。如您所知，挪威是一個相當高的稅收環境，因此您已經看到我們的有效稅率從第三季度的 39% 從第二季度的 32% 增加。

Now moving forward, I'd expect our effective tax rate to be in the mid- to upper 30s range, assuming a similar production level and the pricing holds with the forward curve. As you noted, the deferred tax for the quarter was a source of cash of just over $700 million. And I'd expect deferred taxes to be a source throughout the year. We did enter a tax cash-paying position in the U.S. in the second quarter. And we're now in a cash tax-paying position in most of our jurisdictions around the world.

現在繼續前進，我預計我們的有效稅率將在 30 年代中期至 30 年代左右，假設生產水平相似且價格與遠期曲線保持一致。正如您所指出的，本季度的遞延稅款是超過 7 億美元的現金來源。我預計遞延稅將成為全年的來源。我們確實在第二季度進入了美國的納稅現金支付職位。我們現在在全球大多數司法管轄區都處於現金納稅狀態。

So assuming that prices and our capital program stays around current levels, I think you could see deferred tax to remain a modest source of cash, though cash taxes should be more close to our book taxes over time. And I do think it's important to note that trying to forecast deferred taxes and estimating cash tax ETR on a quarterly basis is pretty tough. It can be impacted by a number of items in any given quarter. So I'd really encourage you to think about that as our effective cash tax rate across an annual time period. And I expect that to be getting closer to what we're seeing our effective tax rate on an income basis.

因此，假設價格和我們的資本計劃保持在當前水平，我認為您可能會看到遞延稅仍然是適度的現金來源，儘管隨著時間的推移現金稅應該更接近我們的賬面稅。而且我確實認為重要的是要注意，試圖按季度預測遞延稅款和估計現金稅 ETR 非常困難。它可能受到任何給定季度中的許多項目的影響。因此，我真的鼓勵您將其視為我們在年度期間的有效現金稅率。我預計這將更接近我們所看到的基於收入的有效稅率。

I understand the point about mix, and that's actually really helpful. I guess my follow-up, my question is on the Permian takeaway. We're obviously seeing a lot of volatility around Waha, but you guys have obviously had a lot of changes in your portfolio. Could you just give a quick refresh as to what your takeaway looks like? I guess, the differential widened a little bit this quarter in your realization. So just trying to get a handle on that, and I'll leave it there.

我理解混合的要點，這實際上很有幫助。我想我的後續行動，我的問題是關於二疊紀的外賣。我們顯然看到娃哈哈周圍有很多波動，但你們的投資組合顯然發生了很多變化。你能快速更新一下你的外賣是什麼樣的嗎？我想，在你意識到這一點時，這個季度的差異稍微擴大了一點。所以只是試圖處理這個問題，我會把它留在那裡。

Yes, sure. So as you know, we're a large globally diverse E&P, so the overall cash flow impact from the Waha pricing differentials that we've seen this last quarter was relatively immaterial for us. But that said, in our presentation materials, our realizations in Lower 48 relative to Henry Hub decreased by 6% from 96% in Q2 to 90% in Q3. And that's primarily driven by lower Permian in-basin month average prices in September relative to Henry Hub.

是的，當然。如您所知，我們是一家大型的全球多元化勘探與生產公司，因此我們在上個季度看到的娃哈哈定價差異對整體現金流的影響對我們來說相對無關緊要。但話雖如此，在我們的演示材料中，相對於 Henry Hub，我們在 Lower 48 的實現率從第二季度的 96% 下降到第三季度的 90%，下降了 6%。這主要是由於 9 月二疊紀盆地內月平均價格相對於 Henry Hub 較低。

And when we look at it based on forward markets, we'd expect to be in the upper 70s to low 80s as a percentage of Henry Hub for the fourth quarter. So that's -- there's a lot of volatility around that, Doug, with what we're seeing in the market right now. And I'd expect that volatility is going to continue until we see the additional Permian takeaway capacity come online later in 2023.

當我們根據遠期市場觀察它時，我們預計第四季度亨利中心的百分比將在 70 年代至 80 年代的低位。所以這就是——道格，我們現在在市場上看到的情況有很多波動。而且我預計波動將持續下去，直到我們看到額外的二疊紀外賣能力在 2023 年晚些時候上線。

And I guess the only thing that, just as a reminder, we're the second-largest gas market in North America. We've got a really strong marketing position that's multiples of our portfolio, and we think that's really beneficial in this situation. We've worked hard to build our gas marketing capability in the Permian, following our acquisitions, and we leverage that to ensure we've got flow assurance through these pricing events. We're really very confident with our in-basin flow assurance and that we've got sufficient takeaway to manage through the short- and medium-term capacity constraints. So for ConocoPhillips, this is essentially a price issue, not a flow issue.

我想唯一值得提醒的是，我們是北美第二大天然氣市場。我們擁有非常強大的營銷地位，是我們投資組合的倍數，我們認為這在這種情況下非常有益。在我們收購之後，我們一直在努力建立我們在二疊紀的天然氣營銷能力，我們利用它來確保我們通過這些定價事件獲得流量保證。我們對我們的流域內流量保證非常有信心，並且我們有足夠的外賣來應對短期和中期的產能限制。所以對於康菲石油來說，這本質上是一個價格問題，而不是流量問題。

Our next question comes from Jeanine Wai from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Jeanine Wai。

Jack, thanks for the partnership, and we wish you well. So our first question, maybe just following up on Willow. Can you provide maybe an update on what the latest is on that project? Any high-level commentary on what the moving pieces are relative to the original project, given that there's been a bunch of back and forth on it on the approvals? And I think the last detailed update we got on it was in June of '21, and there was roughly a 6-year lead time from FID to first production, and there was about a $8 billion capital estimate.

傑克，感謝您的合作，我們祝您一切順利。所以我們的第一個問題，也許只是跟進 Willow。您能否提供有關該項目最新進展的更新？鑑於在批准過程中存在大量來回，任何關於移動部分相對於原始項目的高級評論？我認為我們對它的最後一次詳細更新是在 21 年 6 月，從 FID 到首次生產大約有 6 年的準備時間，資本估計約為 80 億美元。

Yes, Jeanie, this is Nick. Definitely, I'll go through that. Maybe as a reminder, I'll just walk back in time a little bit here. There was a key milestone that was accomplished in early July, and that was that draft SEIS. The comment period has been completed as well. And as I mentioned in the 2Q call, the draft SEIS put forward a new 3-pad alternative, reducing the footprint in that Teshekpuk Lake special area. And that is supported responsive to the Alaska District Court findings.

是的，珍妮，這是尼克。當然，我會經歷那個。也許作為提醒，我會回到這裡。 7 月初完成了一個重要的里程碑，那就是 SEIS 草案。評議期也已結束。正如我在第二季度電話會議中提到的，SEIS 草案提出了一種新的 3-pad 替代方案，減少了 Teshekpuk 湖特殊區域的佔地面積。響應阿拉斯加地方法院的調查結果，這得到了支持。

Now with respect to schedule, we're still targeting the final SEIS in a supportive record of decision by the BLM end of this year. Now Jeanine, as I mentioned previously, we would only take FID following a final SEIS and support a record of decision by the BLM, and we are targeting FID early next year.

現在就時間表而言，我們仍然將最終的 SEIS 定位在 BLM 今年年底的支持性決定記錄中。現在珍妮，正如我之前提到的，我們只會在最終的 SEIS 之後採取 FID 並支持 BLM 的決定記錄，我們的目標是明年初的 FID。

Now pending that successful record of decision, we expect to have 2023 capital spend for this upcoming winter season, and that's mainly focused on civil construction, so that'd be opening up mine site and laying some gravel roads. Now again, we won't take FID or make significant investments until we have a clear path to development.

現在等待成功的決定記錄，我們預計將在 2023 年為即將到來的冬季進行資本支出，這主要集中在土木建設上，因此將開放礦區並鋪設一些碎石路。再說一次，在我們有明確的發展道路之前，我們不會接受 FID 或進行重大投資。

We also continue to do detailed engineering and update our final cost estimates. I know that you referenced that. We recently went to market to update our project costs and have seen some inflationary pressures as expected. We're seeing that globally as well as some of the impacts related to the updated scope due to the BLM's Alternative E in their draft SEIS.

我們還將繼續進行詳細的工程設計並更新我們的最終成本估算。我知道你提到了那個。我們最近去市場更新了我們的項目成本，並且正如預期的那樣看到了一些通貨膨脹壓力。由於 BLM 在其 SEIS 草案中的替代 E，我們在全球範圍內看到了這一點以及與更新範圍相關的一些影響。

But I want to leave you with this. Despite all the cost pressures, the project remains very competitive in our $40 cost supply framework. And finally, we'll provide more details on Willow at the market update that Bill referenced for next year.

但我想把這個留給你。儘管存在所有成本壓力，該項目在我們 40 美元的成本供應框架中仍然非常具有競爭力。最後，我們將在 Bill 提到的明年市場更新中提供有關 Willow 的更多詳細信息。

Okay, great. The follow-up, maybe just sticking with projects here. There's been a lot of investor conversations around Conoco's capital commitments for major capital projects, such as the Qatar project, Sempra, Willow, et cetera, and how that really impacts free cash flow and cash returns. So we know that Conoco's cash returns, of course, is on a CFO metric, not a free cash flow metric, but it's all kind of circular in a way.

好，太棒了。後續，也許只是堅持這裡的項目。圍繞康菲對主要資本項目的資本承諾進行了很多投資者對話，例如卡塔爾項目、Sempra、Willow 等，以及這如何真正影響自由現金流和現金回報。所以我們知道，康菲的現金回報當然是基於 CFO 指標，而不是自由現金流指標，但在某種程度上它是一種循環。

So we just wanted to check in again on just the level of strategic cash that you want to hold. And is that the same as it was previously because, I guess, post the Concho and Shell Permian deals, you could argue that you don't need to hold as much. And then -- but on the other hand, you've got some major capital projects on the horizon that you need to reserve for. And so you ended the quarter with $10.7 billion of cash, so you have a lot of options there.

因此，我們只是想再次檢查您想要持有的戰略現金水平。這是否與以前一樣，因為我猜，發布 Concho 和 Shell Permian 交易後，您可能會爭辯說您不需要持有那麼多。然後——但另一方面，你有一些重大的資本項目即將出現，你需要為這些項目做準備。所以你在本季度結束時有 107 億美元的現金，所以你有很多選擇。

Yes. Sure, Jeanine. This is Bill. So first, based on our forward prices, we'd expect to end the year with roughly $10 billion of cash, also the same -- roughly the same amount that you noted for the end of third quarter. And that's, I'd note, is predicated on us achieving our $15 billion of distribution to shareholders this year.

是的。當然，珍妮。這是比爾。因此，首先，根據我們的遠期價格，我們預計年底將有大約 100 億美元的現金，同樣 - 與您在第三季度末注意到的金額大致相同。我要指出，這取決於我們今年向股東分配的 150 億美元。

Now the framework of how we think about allocation and cash balance really hasn't changed. It's continuing to be guided by our priorities of having a competitive shareholder distribution, strong balance sheet strength and efficient organic and inorganic capital allocations. And the framework that we've laid out of intending to carry $1 billion for operating cash, $3 billion of reserve cash and anything above that as strategic cash continues to be the way that we think about that.

現在，我們如何看待分配和現金餘額的框架確實沒有改變。它繼續以我們的優先事項為指導，即擁有有競爭力的股東分配、強大的資產負債表實力以及有效的有機和無機資本配置。我們制定的框架打算攜帶 10 億美元的運營現金、30 億美元的儲備現金以及任何高於戰略現金的東西，這仍然是我們考慮這一點的方式。

So when you think about strategic cash, we think about that for the opportunity to capture value-enhancing opportunities like you saw us do with the Shell Permian acquisition is to fund our programs through cycles and to fund mid- and long-cycle projects. So the basic way that we think about our cash balances is unchanged.

因此，當您考慮戰略現金時，我們會考慮抓住機會，就像您看到我們在殼牌二疊紀收購中所做的那樣，通過週期為我們的項目提供資金，並為中長期項目提供資金。因此，我們考慮現金餘額的基本方式沒有改變。

Our next question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Scott Hanold。

I was wondering if we could go back to shareholder returns and just give us a sense of how you think about the mix of the shareholder returns. I mean, obviously, there's some companies that are highly formulaic with it. But as you look into sending that VROC for the first quarter, like what goes into play when you think of like what level you want that set at?

我想知道我們是否可以回到股東回報，讓我們了解您如何看待股東回報的組合。我的意思是，顯然，有些公司對它非常公式化。但是，當您考慮在第一季度發送 VROC 時，當您想到您希望將其設置在什麼級別時會發生什麼？

Well, I think we try to look at a couple things, Scott. We're -- obviously, where the macro's at and project our cash flows forward into next year. And obviously, we're going to meet our 30% commitment. And in this kinds of commodity price, we're well in excess of that. I think our 5-year average is in the mid-40s, and this year, we're 50-or-more percent of the cash. So I think you ought to be thinking about if a similar environment persists into next year, the same level of absolute distributions, as I said earlier.

好吧，我想我們試著看看幾件事，斯科特。我們 - 顯然，宏觀所處的位置並將我們的現金流預測到明年。顯然，我們將履行 30% 的承諾。而在這種商品價格中，我們遠遠超過了這個價格。我認為我們的 5 年平均水平在 40 年代中期，而今年，我們擁有 50% 或更多的現金。所以我認為你應該考慮類似的環境是否會持續到明年，同樣的絕對分佈水平，正如我之前所說的那樣。

In regards to the channel, again, we want a growing and reliable base dividend that you can count on. You can count on through the cycles. It's going to be global. It's going to be competitive with the best in the S&P 500, and that's what we're trying to do on our base dividend. We want to buy some of our shares back. We want to buy through the cycles. We think about how much shares do we top up to hit our 30% commitment at a mid-cycle price that we think about.

關於渠道，我們再次希望您可以依靠不斷增長且可靠的基本紅利。您可以依靠這些週期。這將是全球性的。它將與標準普爾 500 指數中的佼佼者競爭，這就是我們試圖在基本股息上做的事情。我們想買回我們的一些股票。我們想通過週期購買。我們考慮以我們認為的周期中期價格補足多少股份才能達到我們 30% 的承諾。

And then at these elevated prices, we know we're getting more cash, and that's why we introduced the third channel through the VROC. The VROC is a combination of cash and shares. And it's got some flexibility because we're monitoring the market. We're monitoring the macro, and we -- as we think about going forward into 2023. But we know it's going to be volatile. We could wake up. It could be $80. It could be $120 a barrel.

然後以這些高價，我們知道我們得到了更多的現金，這就是我們通過 VROC 引入第三個渠道的原因。 VROC 是現金和股票的組合。它具有一定的靈活性，因為我們正在監控市場。我們正在監控宏觀經濟，我們正在考慮進入 2023 年。但我們知道這將是不穩定的。我們可以醒來。可能是 80 美元。它可能是每桶 120 美元。

So that's why the VROC is there to be that variable channel, and we like to top up some of our cash as well as buy some shares as we think about it. As we said it for the first quarter, that's kind of the ratable amount that we had through the course of last year, which should signal that we're pretty bullish on how we think about 2023.

因此，這就是 VROC 存在可變渠道的原因，我們喜歡充值一些現金並在我們考慮時購買一些股票。正如我們在第一季度所說的那樣，這是我們去年全年的可評估金額，這應該表明我們非常看好我們對 2023 年的看法。

That's great color. I appreciate that. And actually, before I get to my second question, I should have started out with this. But Jack, all the best to you and your family. I mean, we've worked together over the past decade-plus, so it was a pleasure to work with you all these years and good luck.

這顏色真好。我很感激。實際上，在我回答第二個問題之前，我應該從這個開始。但是傑克，祝你和你的家人一切順利。我的意思是，我們在過去的十多年裡一直在一起工作，所以很高興能和你一起工作這些年，祝你好運。

But my follow-up question then is looking at the opportunities that you all have in Norway, you look like you're progressing on Tommeliten and Eldfisk. Now can you give us a sense, is that more just a process of just maintaining production out there? Or is there an opportunity really to grow that and really part of sort of this global gas opportunity? Because I do believe it's a little bit more gassy in a lot of these new developments.

但我的後續問題是看看你們在挪威擁有的機會，你們看起來在 Tommeliten 和 Eldfisk 上取得進展。現在你能給我們一個感覺，這僅僅是一個維持生產的過程嗎？還是真的有機會發展它，並且真的是這種全球天然氣機會的一部分？因為我確實相信在許多這些新的發展中它有點更多的氣體。

Yes -- no, this is Nick. I'll give you a quick update on those developments. We've got actually 4 developments that are in progress, 2 operated and 2 nonoperated. You referenced Tommeliten, so we've got Tommeliten Alpha and Eldfisk North. Both of those are subsea developments that are all tied back to existing infrastructure. Even the 2 nonoperated are tied back to existing infrastructure. That means they're very low cost of supply. We're talking in the low 20s, very competitive in the global portfolio.

是的——不，這是尼克。我會給你一個關於這些發展的快速更新。實際上，我們有 4 個開發項目正在進行中，2 個已運營，2 個未運營。你提到了 Tommeliten，所以我們有 Tommeliten Alpha 和 Eldfisk North。這兩項都是與現有基礎設施相關的海底開發項目。甚至 2 個未運行的都與現有基礎設施相關聯。這意味著它們的供應成本非常低。我們談論的是 20 多歲，在全球投資組合中非常有競爭力。

A couple key milestones here recently as well. We just set our subsea templates on both Tommeliten Alpha and Eldfisk North, and we'll start drilling later this year. All 4 of those will come online throughout 2024. But the way I view that is probably more offsetting base decline within the greater Ekofisk area as well as our partner-operated assets. But again, all 4 of those are very competitive.

最近也有幾個關鍵的里程碑。我們剛剛在 Tommeliten Alpha 和 Eldfisk North 上設置了我們的海底模板，我們將在今年晚些時候開始鑽探。所有這 4 個將在整個 2024 年上線。但我認為這可能更多地抵消更大 Ekofisk 地區以及我們合作夥伴運營的資產的基數下降。但同樣，所有這四個都非常有競爭力。

Our next question comes from John Royall from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Royall。

So just on the CapEx increase, if you could maybe give a little bit of color on the split between the NOJV portion of it and the inflation piece. I mean, I know it's relatively small overall, but that might be helpful. And then on the nonoperated JV piece, is there any way to think about your exposure there in the Lower 48, maybe a percentage of production or a percentage of CapEx or anything that could help us there?

因此，就資本支出的增加而言，如果您可以在它的 NOJV 部分和通貨膨脹部分之間的分割上給出一點顏色。我的意思是，我知道它總體上相對較小，但這可能會有所幫助。然後在未運營的合資企業中，有什麼方法可以考慮您在 48 年的曝光率，也許是生產的百分比或資本支出的百分比或任何可以幫助我們的東西？

Yes. John, it's Dominic here. Just in this, the split of capital in terms of the increase of $300 million, $200 million is really related to inflation, and then about $100 million related to a change in working interest we're seeing in our OBO well mix. And I think probably we're seeing some of our partners may be doing a little bit of capital management and shifting their own working interest down, and that's causing us to go up with it. But they're still good wells. In fact, I'll maybe just ask Jack to comment a little bit on what we're seeing in our OBO program there.

是的。約翰，這裡是多米尼克。就在這一點上，資本分配增加了 3 億美元，其中 2 億美元實際上與通貨膨脹有關，然後大約 1 億美元與我們在 OBO 井組合中看到的工作興趣的變化有關。而且我認為我們可能會看到我們的一些合作夥伴可能正在做一些資本管理並降低他們自己的工作興趣，這導致我們繼續這樣做。但它們仍然是好井。事實上，我可能會請 Jack 對我們在 OBO 計劃中看到的內容髮表一點評論。

Yes. We're very pleased with the results we're seeing. As I mentioned before, we have some longer lateral development going on in that OBO program. Some of those wells will cross over into next year and hopefully provide a little bit of momentum.

是的。我們對所看到的結果感到非常滿意。正如我之前提到的，我們在該 OBO 計劃中進行了一些更長的橫向開發。其中一些油井將跨越到明年，並有望提供一點動力。

That's helpful. And then maybe just switching over to LNG. A little bit of color will be helpful on the Western Mexico opportunity with Sempra and how that could take shape and how we should think about potential timing there of you're getting involved relative to the 1Q target that I think Sempra has put out there for the Port Arthur FID.

這很有幫助。然後也許只是切換到液化天然氣。一點色彩將有助於 Sempra 在西墨西哥的機會，以及它如何形成，以及我們應該如何考慮你參與的潛在時機，相對於我認為 Sempra 提出的第一季度目標亞瑟港 FID。

Yes. I think the West Coast, John, is longer-dated, and that's an option we have to participate in expansion of that facility that is currently operating today. And it would be -- I think they're converting the regas portion of that into a small liquefaction plant and looking at some expansion opportunities. So our heads of agreement, our HOA that we have with Sempra, gives us the opportunity to participate in that down the road if and when they decide to build another train at that facility.

是的。我認為約翰西海岸的歷史更久，這是我們必須參與擴建目前正在運營的設施的一個選擇。這將是 - 我認為他們正在將其中的再加氣部分轉換為一個小型液化工廠，並尋找一些擴張機會。因此，我們的協議負責人，我們與 Sempra 的 HOA，讓我們有機會在他們決定在該設施建造另一列火車時參與其中。

Our next question on line comes from Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個在線問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd。

Maybe a follow-up on one of your earlier comments. In the Permian, it sounds like you're saying that, at least for now, the plan for 2023 would be largely to keep activity levels flat with the second half of 2022. If that's the case, any early thoughts on what the trajectory would be for Permian volumes during 2023? And maybe are you seeing any -- is it just a pricing issue? Or are you seeing tightness in the basin that's challenging your ability to execute anything that you'd like to?

也許是對您之前的評論之一的跟進。在二疊紀，聽起來你是在說，至少就目前而言，2023 年的計劃將主要是使活動水平與 2022 年下半年持平。如果是這樣的話，任何關於軌跡會如何的早期想法2023 年的二疊紀體積？也許你看到任何 - 這只是一個定價問題嗎？或者您是否看到盆地的緊張正在挑戰您執行任何您想做的事情的能力？

Yes, Ryan, we're very happy with our execution out there and feel that it's prudent right now to keep a steady amount of activity going into next year. And I would say our internal plans this year and going into next are very consistent with our long-term outlook on production out of the Permian and the Lower 48.

是的，瑞安，我們對我們的執行感到非常滿意，並認為現在保持穩定數量的活動進入明年是明智的。我想說，我們今年和明年的內部計劃與我們對二疊紀和下 48 年生產的長期前景非常一致。

Great. And then maybe just a follow-up on the cash returns. I mean, your position on the dividend has always seemed a little more reflective of your view on sustainability of the longer-term outlook. Given the sizable dividend increase, can you talk a little bit about maybe the read-through of your outlook on commodity sustainability longer term? Is this -- has your longer-term view improved, and is that reflected in a nice uptick in the dividend?

偉大的。然後可能只是現金回報的後續行動。我的意思是，你對股息的立場似乎總是更能反映你對長期前景可持續性的看法。鑑於股息大幅增加，您能否談談您對商品可持續性長期前景的解讀？這是 - 你的長期觀點是否有所改善，這是否反映在股息的良好上升中？

Yes, Ryan, I think we'll get a chance to talk more about that in our analyst meeting that we have that we talked about early in the spring of next year. But yes, basically, it's a longer-term view, given the dynamics that are going on in the market today. We've had a certain mid-cycle price that we've talked about over the last 4 to 5 or 6 years. And I think it is reflective that we think that mid-cycle prices moved up a bit. And so as a result, we can afford more base dividend and reflective of the raise that we announced here in the fourth quarter.

是的，瑞安，我認為我們將有機會在明年春天早些時候討論過的分析師會議上更多地討論這個問題。但是，是的，基本上，考慮到當今市場的動態，這是一個長期的觀點。在過去的 4 到 5 或 6 年中，我們已經討論過某個週期中期價格。而且我認為我們認為周期中的價格略有上漲是有反映的。因此，我們可以負擔更多的基本股息，並反映我們在第四季度在這裡宣布的加薪。

Our next question on line comes from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank.

我們的下一個在線問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Two questions, please. The first one, maybe go back into the split between dividend and buyback. In the third quarter, your split is about 65% in buyback, 35% in dividend. If we're looking into the future, is that a reasonable proxy that how should we look at it or that we can't really withstood it and saying that, okay, that's maybe what you guys going to do. So that's the first question.

請教兩個問題。第一個，可能會回到股息和回購之間的分歧。在第三季度，你的股票回購比例約為 65%，股息為 35%。如果我們展望未來，這是一個合理的代理，我們應該如何看待它，或者我們無法真正承受它並說，好吧，這也許就是你們要做的。所以這是第一個問題。

Second question is on the Qatar LNG that -- congratulations, you get into the North Field South. Is there any capital number that you can share? I think, in the North Field expansion, your share of the commitment is about 900, and given that it's the same volume, say, 1 million tons here, so should we assume it's similar? And also whether that the terms between the North Field South and North Field expansion are basically the same, is there anything that maybe you can share? And also that when that spending on North Field South will kick in because that, I don't think will come on stream until 2028?

第二個問題是關於卡塔爾液化天然氣的——恭喜，你進入了南北油田。有沒有資本可以分享？我認為，在北油田擴建中，您的承諾份額約為 900，鑑於它的數量相同，例如，這裡是 100 萬噸，那麼我們是否應該假設它是相似的？還有北場南擴和北場擴容的條款是否基本一致，有什麼可以分享的嗎？還有，當 North Field South 的支出開始生效時，我認為要到 2028 年才會投入使用？

Yes. Paul, let me try to take those. Let me call a friend with Nick through part of that. So yes, I think the first part split I think you had on the way we think about, I think that was VROC, so between share buybacks and dividends. I think the split that we've historically have, you mentioned 35%/65%. I think those are reasonable up to like a 50/50 split between cash and share buybacks is how we nominally think about the VROC. But that's subject to change based on how we see the macro and kind of how we see it. But nominally, that's probably not a bad place to start.

是的。保羅，讓我試著接受那些。讓我通過其中一部分給尼克的朋友打電話。所以是的，我認為第一部分是我認為你在我們考慮的方式上的，我認為那是 VROC，所以在股票回購和股息之間。我認為我們歷史上的分裂，你提到的 35%/65%。我認為這些都是合理的，比如現金和股票回購之間的 50/50 比例是我們名義上對 VROC 的看法。但這可能會根據我們如何看待宏觀以及我們如何看待它而發生變化。但名義上，這可能不是一個糟糕的起點。

With respect to Qatar LNG, I think the North Field South trains are going to be replicated from the North Field expansion trains. So relative to the same amount of capital, maybe adjusted for your view of inflation because they will be a little bit later starting. But yes, they're going to be the same scope, same size and exact same kind of train. So that's how we think about it very similar to the North Field expansion project.

關於卡塔爾液化天然氣，我認為 North Field South 列車將從 North Field 擴展列車複製。因此，相對於相同數量的資本，可能會根據您對通貨膨脹的看法進行調整，因為它們會稍微晚一點開始。但是，是的，它們將具有相同的範圍、相同的大小和完全相同的火車類型。所以這就是我們認為它與北場擴建項目非常相似的方式。

And then what was the last one -- the timing. Yes, you're right on the timing. I don't think there's much capital in the next couple years associated with NFS. Anything you'd add, Nick?

然後是最後一個 - 時間。是的，你的時機是對的。我認為未來幾年與 NFS 相關的資金不會太多。尼克，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Just to add, Paul, just on -- as we talked about in the Q2 call, remember North Field expansion, that total nets $900 million for us. We will have catch-up payments. And so once the condition precedents are set, we'll reverse the total energy for COP share in those NFE project costs. That could happen early next year or even late this year, again, $900 million net total for the project. Startup again for NFE is 2026, and then NFS will probably follow a year later.

是的。只是補充一下，保羅，就像我們在第二季度電話會議中談到的那樣，記住北場的擴張，我們總共淨賺了 9 億美元。我們將進行補繳。因此，一旦設置了先決條件，我們將反轉 COP 在 NFE 項目成本中的總能量份額。這可能會在明年初甚至今年年底發生，同樣，該項目的淨總額為 9 億美元。 NFE 的再次啟動是 2026 年，然後 NFS 可能會在一年後跟進。

Our next question comes from Raphaël DuBois from Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Raphaël DuBois。

Seen from this side of the pond, it looks like there is a bit of a tradeoff between the industry increasing production of phase, windfall tax and/or extra tax on distribution. Can you maybe explain what projects you call sanctioned if you were better incentivized to increase production? Are there any resources that you could monetize faster if you received some sort of guarantee from the U.S. government in terms of permitting, as you mentioned in your remarks, or in terms of tax stability? That would be my initial questions.

從池塘的這一邊看，在行業增加階段的產量、暴利稅和/或額外的分配稅之間似乎存在一些權衡。如果你能更好地激勵你增加產量，你能解釋一下你稱之為批准的項目嗎？如果你從美國政府那裡獲得某種保證，如你在評論中提到的那樣，或者在稅收穩定性方面，你是否有任何資源可以更快地貨幣化？那將是我最初的問題。

Yes, thanks. I think we're already growing our company. I think we're faced with some other issues in the short term around labor shortages, supply chain and inflation. They're probably dictating the pace of the industry. I think generally, your question more relates to a medium- and a longer-term outlook. Eventually more infrastructure is going to need to continue the growth and the development of the U.S. shale and then more -- and more infrastructure needed for growth up in Canada and maybe even for exporting some of the product down into Mexico and Central America.

對了謝謝。我認為我們已經在發展我們的公司。我認為我們在短期內還面臨著勞動力短缺、供應鍊和通貨膨脹等其他一些問題。他們可能決定了這個行業的步伐。我認為一般來說，你的問題更多地與中長期前景有關。最終，將需要更多的基礎設施來繼續美國頁岩氣的增長和發展，然後更多——加拿大的增長需要更多的基礎設施，甚至可能需要將部分產品出口到墨西哥和中美洲。

So I think that's the issue we have with the policy choices that this administration is making. And the things they could do to help is give more certainty on the long-term permitting and just the fiscal stability to make sure that we don't have large changes in the tax structure coming because these project takes -- these projects have cycle times and years associated with them. And the more risk you put in the front end, the less certainty you're going to have on executing some of that. So that's why my remarks were around -- certainly around the fiscal stability.

所以我認為這就是我們在本屆政府正在做出的政策選擇中遇到的問題。他們可以提供幫助的事情是在長期許可和財政穩定性方面給予更多確定性，以確保我們不會因為這些項目需要而對稅收結構產生重大變化——這些項目有周期時間以及與他們相關的年份。而且你在前端投入的風險越大，你在執行其中一些方面的確定性就越低。所以這就是為什麼我的言論圍繞著——當然是圍繞著財政穩定。

The whole conversation around windfall profits taxes is not a helpful conversation right now and then more certainty around permitting. And I would add on the permitting, if you want an energy transition, you need this permitting as well, certainly in the U.S. You need the permitting for onshore, offshore wind, for solar installations, for high-voltage transmission lines. So permitting relief is required if you want any chance of going through an energy transition and in having the support of trying to execute in all-of-the-above energy strategies. So I think these are really important topics as we think about the next 3, 4, 5 years and the next decade or 2 for our business.

圍繞意外利潤稅的整個對話現在不是一個有用的對話，然後是關於許可的更多確定性。我想補充一下許可，如果你想要能源轉型，你也需要這個許可，當然在美國。你需要陸上、海上風能、太陽能裝置和高壓輸電線路的許可。因此，如果您希望有任何機會經歷能源轉型並獲得嘗試執行上述所有能源戰略的支持，則需要允許救濟。因此，當我們考慮未來 3、4、5 年以及未來 10 年或 2 年的業務時，我認為這些都是非常重要的話題。

Great. My second question is TotalEnergies has recently announced that they will spin off their holdings in Surmont and Fort Hills. And I was wondering if you could tell us what it might change for the way Surmont is run and whether it's something you could also consider to lower your GHG emissions intensity.

偉大的。我的第二個問題是 TotalEnergies 最近宣布，他們將分拆在 Surmont 和 Fort Hills 的股份。我想知道您能否告訴我們 Surmont 的運營方式可能會發生什麼變化，以及您是否也可以考慮降低溫室氣體排放強度。

Yes, Raphaël, maybe I'll start with the way we look at Surmont is, obviously, we value Surmont greatly. It's a low cost of supply, low capital intensity asset that's in our diverse portfolio. Again, it offers up stable level-loaded production with a significant resource position out there. We've continued to transform that asset through technology applications, piloting emission reduction opportunities, including -- I don't know if you follow this, joining the Pathways Alliance, which is 6 like-minded companies coming together to lower emissions from the overall oil sands industry, net zero by 2050.

是的，Raphaël，也許我會從我們看待 Surmont 的方式開始，顯然，我們非常重視 Surmont。這是我們多樣化的投資組合中的一種供應成本低、資本密集度低的資產。同樣，它提供了穩定的水平負載生產，並具有重要的資源位置。我們繼續通過技術應用改造該資產，試點減排機會，包括——我不知道你是否遵循這一點，加入 Pathways Alliance，這是 6 家志同道合的公司聚集在一起以降低整體排放量油砂行業，到 2050 年淨為零。

The asset continues to perform extremely well. Actually, back in September, we hit a record production day of 158,000 barrels a day gross. So we see this as staying in the portfolio. With respect to Total's spinco or newco plans, we're continuing to understand what that looks like, and I can't comment further beyond that.

該資產繼續表現出色。實際上，早在 9 月份，我們的日產量就達到了創紀錄的 158,000 桶。所以我們認為這是留在投資組合中。關於道達爾的 spinco 或 newco 計劃，我們正在繼續了解它的樣子，除此之外我無法發表進一步評論。

I would say, Raphaël, it does nothing for global emissions what Total is trying to do.

我想說，拉斐爾，道達爾試圖做的事情對全球排放沒有任何幫助。

Our next question on line comes from Jeoffrey Lambujon from Tudor, Pickering, and Holt.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tudor、Pickering 和 Holt 的 Jeoffrey Lambujon。

My first one's just on portfolio management on the acquisition strategy. I know you've talked about bolt-ons as more of the focus, and we're obviously seeing that quarter-to-quarter but wanted to get any updated views you might have on the environment as you see it for larger deals, particularly for upstream assets in the Permian. I don't know that the cost of supply framework continues to be kind of the focal point in assessing those in terms of what opportunities we'd need to hurdle. But anything you'd say just around what you see today and where your Bakken appetite might be, particularly in the Permian would be great, just given the position you've assembled there over the years.

我的第一個只是關於收購策略的投資組合管理。我知道你已經談到了更多的關注點，我們顯然每季度都看到了這種情況，但希望獲得你對環境的任何更新視圖，因為你看到它對於更大的交易，特別是對於二疊紀的上游資產。我不知道供應成本框架仍然是評估我們需要克服哪些機會的焦點。但是，只要考慮到您多年來在那裡聚集的位置，您今天所看到的以及您的 Bakken 胃口可能在哪裡，特別是在二疊紀，您會說的任何事情都會很棒。

Yes. Maybe I can start, and then I'll ask Jack to comment on it as well because I know his team has been very active in this space over the last 1, 1.5 years. We continue to look for opportunities to bolt-on acquisitions. We mentioned one. It was a small opportunity in the Eagle Ford to core up what we were doing there, so we went ahead and did that. But a lot of focus is going on what we're doing in the Permian, and let me let Jack kind of describe a little bit about what we're doing there.

是的。也許我可以開始，然後我也會請 Jack 對此發表評論，因為我知道他的團隊在過去 1 到 1.5 年裡一直在這個領域非常活躍。我們繼續尋找加強收購的機會。我們提到了一個。這是鷹福特的一個小機會，可以集中我們在那裡所做的事情，所以我們繼續這樣做。但是很多焦點都集中在我們在二疊紀所做的事情上，讓我讓傑克稍微描述一下我們在那裡所做的事情。

Sure. Thanks, Ryan. Yes, we're always opportunistically looking to add to our core areas. And as we've talked about in previous calls, we find the highest value right now in swaps and trades. The team's completed about 20 of these, and that approaches 30,000 acres or so in [quote-up] land that allows for longer lateral development and lower cost of supply development. So in addition to those 20-ish deals, we have about that many or more in the pipeline.

當然。謝謝，瑞恩。是的，我們總是在尋求增加我們的核心領域的機會。正如我們在之前的電話會議中談到的那樣，我們現在在掉期和交易中發現了最高價值。該團隊完成了其中的大約 20 個，並且在 [報價] 土地上接近 30,000 英畝左右，允許更長的橫向開發和更低的供應開發成本。因此，除了那些 20 多筆交易之外，我們還有很多或更多的交易正在籌備中。

Perfect. Appreciate that. And then lastly just on the disposition side. I think the last time you all tallied up what's been done since setting the target for the end of next year was, with last quarter's earnings, about $2.4 billion. Would the noncore sales in today's press release be incremental to that, or is that included? And then, I guess bigger picture, it seems like Lower 48 noncore positions represent kind of the main opportunities there it looks like or at least half over the recent past. Is that the right way to think about some of those priorities going forward?

完美的。感謝。然後最後只是在處置方面。我認為你們上一次統計自設定明年年底目標以來所做的事情是，上一季度的收益約為 24 億美元。今天新聞稿中的非核心銷售額是否會增加，或者是否包括在內？然後，我想更大的圖景，似乎較低的 48 個非核心職位代表了那裡的主要機會，或者至少是最近的一半。這是考慮未來一些優先事項的正確方式嗎？

Jeff, it's Dominic. Yes. So the -- we've sold -- well, since we closed the Concho and the Shell transactions, we obviously wanted to do a little bit of portfolio cleanup. So we've sold $2.4 billion, as you said, of assets, and that's inclusive of the $0.3 billion this quarter. And we're pretty pleased about that because they represent really the priority assets we had for sale, typically very mature low-margin or high-cost supplies. So that's assets like Indonesia, the high H2S [Builder Madden], some legacy assets in Central Basin platform and so on. So we've been pleased with that. We've monetized those in a strong market.

傑夫，是多米尼克。是的。所以 - 我們已經出售了 - 好吧，自從我們完成了 Concho 和 Shell 的交易後，我們顯然想做一些投資組合清理工作。因此，正如您所說，我們已經出售了 24 億美元的資產，其中包括本季度的 3 億美元。我們對此感到非常高興，因為它們確實代表了我們待售的優先資產，通常是非常成熟的低利潤或高成本供應。這就是像印度尼西亞這樣的資產，高 H2S [Builder Madden]，中央盆地平台的一些遺留資產等等。所以我們對此很滿意。我們已經在強大的市場中將這些貨幣化了。

Going forward, I would say we're really just back into normal sort of high-grade opportunity as usual. We're not focused on any target at this point. We're happy with where we are. We'll always look for opportunities. But -- so we're pretty happy that we've basically completed the main cleanup that we wanted to do after those 2 big transactions.

展望未來，我想說我們真的只是像往常一樣回到正常的高檔機會。在這一點上，我們沒有專注於任何目標。我們對我們所處的位置感到滿意。我們會一直尋找機會。但是——所以我們很高興我們已經基本完成了我們想要在這 2 筆大交易之後進行的主要清理工作。

Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann from Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

And again, Jack, prayers with you and your family. Hope all goes well. Ryan, my first question, maybe I guess, I would call it for the top du jour on shareholder return on capital allocation. Specifically, any change to how you all are thinking about the shareholder returns versus -- or specifically the buybacks versus just particular maybe accelerate your growth opportunities? I say that, obviously, given the stock's hit an all-time high and knowing just the incredible high well opportunities, high well return opportunities you all have.

再次，傑克，與你和你的家人一起祈禱。希望一切順利。瑞安，我的第一個問題，也許我猜，我會稱之為股東資本配置回報的首要問題。具體來說，你們所有人對股東回報的思考方式的任何改變——或者特別是回購而不是特定的可能會加速你的增長機會？我這麼說，顯然，鑑於股票創下歷史新高，並且知道你們所有人都擁有令人難以置信的高井機會，高井回報機會。

Yes. Thanks, Neal. No, I think we've tried to describe that in the release. We feel like, obviously, we could ramp more in the Lower 48, but in this environment, it just doesn't make sense to us to be doing that right now. We just want to run efficient stable programs right there. We do have opportunities to invest in more medium- and longer-cycle projects. We described those around Willow and Sempra and then the Qatari projects as well.

是的。謝謝，尼爾。不，我想我們已經嘗試在版本中描述這一點。我們覺得，顯然，我們可以在 48 歲以下的地方增加更多，但在這種環境下，我們現在這樣做是沒有意義的。我們只想在那裡運行高效穩定的程序。我們確實有機會投資更多的中長周期項目。我們描述了 Willow 和 Sempra 周圍的那些，然後還描述了卡塔爾項目。

So we are leaning into -- we're going to need to supply long term as an industry, and we think these are important. And we believe our company with our global diverse portfolio has the kind of opportunities that are low cost of supply, fit our GHG emissions intensity profile and our reductions that we're trying to make in that particular area. And these are going to be needed assets that we want to invest in to ensure that the supply is there long term.

所以我們傾向於——作為一個行業，我們需要長期供應，我們認為這些很重要。我們相信，我們擁有全球多元化投資組合的公司擁有供應成本低、符合我們的溫室氣體排放強度概況以及我們試圖在該特定領域實現的減排的機會。這些將是我們想要投資的必要資產，以確保長期供應。

Great to hear. And then my second question, probably for Jack, on the Permian and specifically the former Shell assets now purchased, I guess, it was about a year ago. I'm just curious to now when you look at those well returns that you've been seeing there, how those are stacking up versus those initial expectations maybe a year or more ago and how you guys are -- if you all are utilizing, I think there was about, what is it, 600 or more miles of pipe there. I was wondering if that's being fully utilized.

很高興聽到。然後我的第二個問題，可能是針對傑克的，關於二疊紀，特別是現在購買的前殼牌資產，我猜，大約是一年前。我現在很好奇，當你看到你在那裡看到的那些良好的回報時，這些回報是如何與一年或更早前的最初預期相比的，以及你們的情況如何——如果你們都在利用，我認為那里大約有 600 英里或更多英里的管道。我想知道這是否被充分利用。

Yes. Thanks, Neal. Well, in general, we're very happy with that deal. It's fully integrated. I think we mentioned last quarter, we started to bring on some of the initial projects with our style of drilling and completion, and that continues. And the results are at least as strong as we had anticipated.

是的。謝謝，尼爾。好吧，總的來說，我們對這筆交易非常滿意。它是完全集成的。我想我們上個季度提到過，我們開始以我們的鑽井和完井方式開展一些初始項目，並且這種情況仍在繼續。結果至少和我們預期的一樣強。

And then on the other piece of that, the OBO, as I mentioned before, so far, an upside to the deal has been that we have seen lateral lengths extended by our partners, and that's better for everyone. So we'll continue to do that. But right now, it's completely folded in and business as usual.

然後在另一部分，OBO，正如我之前提到的，到目前為止，該交易的一個好處是我們已經看到我們的合作夥伴延長了橫向長度，這對每個人都更好。所以我們將繼續這樣做。但現在，它完全折疊起來，一切照舊。

Operator, I think we have time for one more question.

接線員，我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our next question comes from Leo Mariani from MKM Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 MKM Partners 的 Leo Mariani。

Wanted to quickly follow up around some of your prepared comments. You certainly discussed the LNG deals that you've entered into. And you kind of alluded to the fact that there's some nice benefit with your kind of U.S. production base, I guess, particularly for the Port Arthur project. Just as you're thinking about that, I mean, do you think there's obviously an ability to kind of hold some of those volumes into that in the next couple years? And would you anticipate maybe trying to kind of increase some of your gas production as you look out into the middle of this decade to kind of take advantage of that as feedstock?

希望快速跟進您準備好的一些評論。您當然討論了您已達成的液化天然氣交易。你有點暗示這樣一個事實，你的美國生產基地有一些好處，我猜，特別是對於亞瑟港項目。正如您正在考慮的那樣，我的意思是，您是否認為顯然有能力在未來幾年內將其中一些卷保留在其中？當您展望本世紀中期以利用其作為原料時，您是否預計可能會嘗試增加一些天然氣產量？

Well, yes, as we said, Leo, in our opening comments that we're -- we think the gas resource is pretty plentiful in the U.S. I don't think there's -- I wouldn't think about it as physical integration between our assets. The market in the U.S. is a big liquid market. We want to create -- creating some of this more demand to exploit the resource in the U.S. is a good thing, is -- and that's what we're trying to play. We see the resource in the U.S. being quite substantial. We want to be involved in the liquefaction of that resource and the shipping and then the regasification as we move it to higher-value markets around the world.

嗯，是的，正如我們所說，Leo，在我們的開場評論中，我們 - 我們認為美國的天然氣資源非常豐富。我認為沒有 - 我不會認為它是我們的資產。美國市場是一個流動性很大的市場。我們想要創造——創造一些更多的需求來開髮美國的資源是一件好事，是——這就是我們想要發揮的作用。我們看到美國的資源相當可觀。我們希望參與該資源的液化、運輸和再氣化，因為我們將其轉移到全球更高價值的市場。

Okay, that makes sense. And I guess, you also talked in your prepared comments about having to kind of start some of this medium-term major project capital in 2023 that we should kind of layer on top of this kind of second half '22 annualized spend, if you will. Is it possible to offer any order of magnitude on this? In this major project spend, are we talking kind of in the hundreds of millions or potentially could this be north of $1 billion?

好吧，這是有道理的。而且我猜，您在準備好的評論中還談到了必須在 2023 年啟動一些中期重大項目資金，如果您願意的話，我們應該在這種 22 年下半年的年度支出基礎上增加一層.是否可以為此提供任何數量級？在這個重大項目支出中，我們談論的是數億美元還是可能超過 10 億美元？

Well, I think it's certainly, as Nick described in terms of some of the nuances on Willow, will we get started? Will we won't? Do we have to do an upfront payment? How big is that for Qatar? So it's a little bit early for us to be kind of telegraphing what an absolute -- we're just saying these are projects that make sense for us. We're going to fund them. We're going to lean in on some of these medium- and longer-cycle projects. We think the world needs them. And again, the returns back to the shareholders aren't going to suffer because our value proposition is based on CFO. So it's not based on free cash flow.

好吧，我認為這肯定是，正如尼克在 Willow 的一些細微差別方面所描述的那樣，我們會開始嗎？我們不會嗎？我們需要預付款嗎？卡塔爾有多大？因此，對於我們來說，現在傳達一個絕對的信息還為時過早——我們只是說這些項目對我們來說是有意義的。我們將資助他們。我們將關注其中一些中長周期項目。我們認為世界需要他們。同樣，回饋給股東的回報不會受到影響，因為我們的價值主張是基於首席財務官的。所以它不是基於自由現金流。

As we have no further questions, I will now turn it over to Phil for closing comments.

由於我們沒有進一步的問題，我現在將把它交給菲爾以結束評論。

Thanks, operator. So this will wrap up the call today. If you have any questions, Investor Relations is around, and we appreciate your time today.

謝謝，接線員。所以這將結束今天的電話會議。如果您有任何問題，投資者關係部隨時待命，我們感謝您今天的寶貴時間。

And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。