Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Sarah, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Stacy Alderson, CN's Assistant Vice President of Investor Relations. Ladies and gentlemen, Ms. Alderson.

午安.我叫莎拉，今天我將成為您的接線生。（接線生指示）此時，我想將電話轉給 CN 投資者關係助理副總裁 Stacy Alderson。女士們先生們，奧爾德森女士。

Thank you (spoken in foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for CN's Third Quarter 2024 financial and operating results conference call. Before we begin, I'd like to draw your attention to the forward looking statements and additional legal information available at the beginning of the presentation.

謝謝（用外語發言） 大家下午好，謝謝您參加我們的 CN 2024 年第三季財務與經營業績電話會議。在開始之前，我想提請您注意簡報開頭提供的前瞻性陳述和其他法律資訊。

As a reminder, today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of US and Canadian securities laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. They are more fully described in the forward-looking statement section of the presentation.

提醒一下，今天的電話會議包含美國和加拿大證券法含義內的某些預測和其他前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與這些陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。簡報的前瞻性陳述部分對它們進行了更全面的描述。

After the prepared remarks, we will conduct a Q&A session with our analysts. As usual, we'd ask that you please limit yourself to one question.

在準備好的發言之後，我們將與分析師進行問答環節。像往常一樣，我們會要求您只回答一個問題。

Joining us on the call today are Tracy Robinson, our President and CEO; Derek Taylor, our Chief Field Operations Officer; Pat Whitehead, our Chief Network Operations Officer, Remi Lalonde, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Ghislain Houle, our Chief Financial Officer. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tracy Robinson.

今天加入我們電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson； Derek Taylor，我們的首席現場營運長； Pat Whitehead，我們的網路營運長；Remi Lalonde，我們的商務長；以及我們的財務長 Ghislain Houle。現在我很高興將電話轉給 CN 總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson。

Thanks, everyone, for joining our call today. Most of you would have already seen our press release on September 10, where we updated our 2024 guidance and longer-term outlook. We'll get some more details about the quarter in a moment. But I'd like to start by saying a few words about how we see things now that the noise of the past two quarters is mostly behind us.

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。大多數人可能已經看過我們 9 月 10 日發布的新聞稿，其中我們更新了 2024 年指導和長期展望。我們稍後將獲得有關該季度的更多詳細資訊。但我想先談談我們如何看待事情，因為過去兩個季度的噪音基本上已經過去了。

First, let me say a few words on operations. We implemented our scheduled operating plan 30 months ag now. It's proving over and over again to be the right plan for our network in the velocity, increased levels of customer services support and in its resilience and ability to recover.

首先我簡單說一下營運方面的狀況。我們現在實施了 30 個月前預定的營運計劃。事實一再證明，從速度、客戶服務支援水準的提高以及復原能力和復原能力來看，這對我們的網路來說是正確的計劃。

The latest proof point is the way our operating performance rebounded after both the fires in Northern Alberta in July and after our labor related shutdown and we bounced back quickly. When you're putting up numbers like October month to date, car velocity at 223 miles per day train speed of 20 miles per hour, all will handling record Western Canadian grain volumes and maintaining a really strong local service levels for our customers.

最新的證據是，在 7 月阿爾伯塔省北部的火災以及與勞工相關的停工之後，我們的經營業績出現了反彈，並且我們迅速反彈。當您提供10 月至今的數字時，汽車速度為每天223 英里，火車速度為每小時20 英里，所有這些都將處理加拿大西部地區創紀錄的糧食量，並為我們的客戶維持真正強大的本地服務水平。

When the team is delivering at those levels, you know that this is a pretty well-oiled machine. This is a credit, not the path to Derek into the entire operating team. And second the macros lighter than what we expected coming into 2024 and maybe even a bit softer than what we thought on our last call back in July. We're seeing this play out in our merchandise business, especially in construction related commodities as well as in automotive.

當團隊達到這些水平時，您就知道這是一台運作良好的機器。這是一份功勞，而不是Derek進入整個營運團隊的路徑。其次，宏觀經濟數據比我們對 2024 年的預期要輕，甚至可能比我們在 7 月上次回檔時的預期要軟一些。我們在我們的商品業務中看到了這種情況，特別是在建築相關商品以及汽車領域。

Having said that, we've built up a strong pipeline of opportunities with our customers that are unique to this network. We see this driving more than half of the volume growth in coming years. So we're confident these will allow us to grow in spite of some of the macro challenges.

話雖如此，我們已經與客戶建立了強大的機會管道，這是該網路所獨有的。我們認為這將推動未來幾年一半以上的銷售成長。因此，我們相信，儘管面臨一些宏觀挑戰，這些將使我們能夠實現成長。

And finally, because of the softer economy, we haven't seen the levels of volumes that we expected on parts of our network this year. Because of that we're continuing to adjust our resource levels to more closely align resources to the demand we see coming our way, particularly in our eastern and southern regions. We stopped hiring on certain parts in the network earlier this year and we continue to be purposeful in our decisions around labor.

最後，由於經濟疲軟，我們今年部分網路的交易量並未達到預期水準。因此，我們正在繼續調整我們的資源水平，以使資源更緊密地滿足我們所看到的需求，特別是在我們的東部和南部地區。今年早些時候，我們停止了網路中某些部分的招聘，並且我們繼續有針對性地做出有關勞動力的決策。

Refining that balance between minimizing costs and having the right resources in place to handle the growth, which means some surge capacity in key locations. We have and will continue to take actions to drive margin improvement into the fourth quarter and beyond, and Pat will speak to this in more detail in a few minutes.

在最大限度地降低成本和擁有適當的資源來應對成長之間完善平衡，這意味著關鍵地點的產能會激增。我們已經並將繼續採取行動，推動第四季度及以後的利潤率改善，帕特將在幾分鐘內更詳細地討論這一點。

So we're in the process of firming up our outlook for 2025, and we'll be able to give you more details on that in January. But as we do this work, our story remains the same. We're committed to delivering on our growth agenda, underpinned by our scheduled operating model. Our recipe of volume growth, pricing ahead of rail inflation and incremental margin improvement will enable us to deliver our three year outlook of high single digit EPS cater.

因此，我們正在確定 2025 年的前景，我們將在 1 月向您提供更多詳細資訊。但當我們從事這項工作時，我們的故事仍然是一樣的。我們致力於在預定營運模式的基礎上實現我們的成長議程。我們的銷售成長、鐵路通膨之前的定價和增量利潤改善的秘訣將使我們能夠實現高個位數每股收益的三年前景。

Okay now turning to the quarter, I'm pleased that the Teamsters arbitration process is now well underway. This gives us labor stability on the railway and with the work stoppage behind us, our operation is fully recovered and Derek will give us more insight into how we manage through and lift it out of that disruption.

好的，現在轉向本季度，我很高興卡車司機仲裁程序現已順利進行。這為我們在鐵路上提供了勞動力穩定性，並且隨著停工的結束，我們的運營已完全恢復，德里克將使我們更深入地了解如何管理並擺脫這種幹擾。

On the demand side, the noise created by the labor situation clearly had an impact on our business in the quarter, most meaningfully in intermodal. Following the network restart, we saw a snapback in domestic intermodal demand and expect a more gradual return of the international business based on our experience with the Canadian West Coast port strike last year. Vancouver and Rupert remain compelling gateways and Rami and the team are working hard to get those volumes back as quickly as possible.

在需求方面，勞動力狀況造成的噪音顯然對我們本季的業務產生了影響，其中最有意義的是多式聯運。網路重啟後，我們看到國內多式聯運需求大幅回升，並根據去年加拿大西海岸港口罷工的經驗，預計國際業務將逐步恢復。溫哥華和魯伯特仍然是引人注目的門戶，拉米和團隊正在努力盡快恢復這些銷售。

Now just a couple of things to mention on the cost side. One, we were resource to handle more volume; and two bring into network to an orderly shutdown as well as the Alberta wildfires came with some additional expenses, which combined came through in our margin performance this quarter. Putting it all together, we delivered $1.72 of EPS for the third quarter, 2% higher than last year, with no loss of 63.1%. Ghislain will give us more details in just a few minutes.

現在只需要提及成本方面的幾件事。第一，我們有資源處理更多的數量；兩個網路有序關閉以及艾伯塔省野火帶來了一些額外費用，這些費用綜合體現在我們本季的利潤表現中。總而言之，我們第三季的每股收益為 1.72 美元，比去年增長 2%，但沒有損失 63.1%。吉斯蘭將在幾分鐘內向我們提供更多詳細資訊。

Now we're looking past Q3 and into the fourth quarter to really demonstrate with this railroad can do. Now hand it over to the team to provide more details. Over to you Derek.

現在我們正在回顧第三和第四季度，以真正展示這條鐵路的作用。現在將其交給團隊以提供更多詳細資訊。交給你了，德瑞克。

Thanks, Tracy, and good afternoon, everyone. So I want to start by acknowledging our results and feel running the railroad in and day out. They've been doing a great job. And I'm really proud of how well those were in the third quarter, especially would you consider what we have a metaphor. My personal base goes out for the entirety.

謝謝，崔西，大家下午好。因此，我想先承認我們的成果，並感受日復一日地經營鐵路的感覺。他們做得很好。我對第三季的表現感到非常自豪，尤其是你會考慮我們的比喻嗎？我的個人基礎完全消失了。

First with the devastating forest fires just well vertical in July, this was on our essence of the vision. That's and that's the West Coast through the rest of our network and is the busiest quarter on the entire CN system. There was a two day period when the fires were burning that we just don't have any trends at all. Once the worst of bars past, we were still severely limited in our operations as Geoffrey located in the National Park.

首先，七月發生了毀滅性的森林火災，這是我們願景的本質。那就是我們網路其餘部分的西海岸，也是整個 CN 系統中最繁忙的地區。有兩天的時間，大火燃燒，我們根本沒有任何趨勢。最糟糕的酒吧過去了，我們的業務仍然受到嚴重限制，因為傑弗裡位於國家公園。

We needed to coordinate all of our activities with the park's incident commander on the ground and even modify how we operated. This included not being able to stop trains within the park boundary, which meant we had to redesign our train service for a crew change location 60 miles away. This was a big deal and the team did an outstanding job managing through all the exceptions.

我們需要與公園現場的事件指揮官協調我們的所有活動，甚至修改我們的運作方式。這包括無法在公園邊界內停止火車，這意味著我們必須為 60 英里外的乘務員換班地點重新設計火車服務。這是一件大事，團隊在處理所有例外情況方面表現出色。

Second was the TCRC work stoppage in August where we undertook an orderly shutdown of our entire Canadian network. This wasn't a decision we took lightly, but it was necessary to ensure the safety and security of the railroad and our customers freight.

其次是 8 月 TCRC 停工，我們有序關閉了整個加拿大網路。這不是我們輕易做出的決定，但為了確保鐵路和客戶貨運的安全，這是必要的。

In the lead up to the stoppage, we embargoed certain traffic and started to park equipment in key locations for the eventual restart. This obviously had an impact on our locomotive productivity and fuel efficiency that in the quarter. Since the stoppage, we've seen those metrics trend in the right direction. During those disruptions, we clearly couldn't operate the way we know how to.

在停工之前，我們禁止了某些交通，並開始在關鍵地點停放設備，以便最終重新啟動。這顯然對我們本季的機車生產率和燃油效率產生了影響。自停賽以來，我們看到這些指標正朝著正確的方向發展。在這些中斷期間，我們顯然無法以我們所知道的方式運作。

We saw the impact of that on our key operating metrics of car velocity at 208 car miles per day for the full quarter and through dwell of 7.1 hours. Disciplined adherence to the plan provided the resiliency we needed and we bounced back quickly.

我們看到了這對我們關鍵營運指標的影響，即整個季度每天行駛 208 英里、停留時間為 7.1 小時的汽車速度。嚴格遵守計劃為我們提供了所需的彈性，我們很快就恢復了元氣。

It's impressive that both car velocity and through dwell for the quarter were flat on a year-over-year basis in spite of the challenges. In fact, the month of September, which was clearly a major disruptions has the best monthly car velocity improved well over the last three years, approaching 220 car miles per day in 6.8 hours respectively.

令人印象深刻的是，儘管面臨挑戰，但本季的汽車速度和通過停留時間與去年同期相比持平。事實上，9 月顯然是一個重大干擾，其月度車速在過去三年中得到了顯著改善，分別在 6.8 小時內接近每天 220 英里。

As we head into grain season this fall and we've already seen a record September movement of grain in terms of volumes, I really like where we're at. We remain focused on delivering on our service commitments to our customers and we continue to look for opportunities to improve train size, given the mix of business that we're handling.

當我們進入今年秋天的穀物季節時，我們已經看到了創紀錄的 9 月穀物數量變動，我真的很喜歡我們現在的處境。我們仍然專注於履行對客戶的服務承諾，並考慮到我們正在處理的業務組合，我們將繼續尋找改善列車規模的機會。

At its core, the strength and skill of the team combined with outstanding execution in what was an extremely dynamic operating environment, even with a solid plan is the right formula to manage through disruptions and deliver for our customers. Now, I'll turn it over to Pat.

從本質上講，團隊的實力和技能與極其動態的營運環境中的出色執行力相結合，即使製定了可靠的計劃，也是管理中斷並為客戶提供服務的正確公式。現在，我將把它交給帕特。

Thanks, Derek. Let's start by talking about safety. We believe all incidents and injuries are preventable, and our priority is to ensure everyone goes on safely at the end of each day. In an environment of dynamic as ours, there are hundreds of decisions our teams make every day to move good safely. To support our front line, we have implemented a comprehensive program that emphasizes changes to behavior and the proactive identification of hazardous and high-risk behaviors. We have trained almost 500 frontline managers on exposure reduction techniques and human performance with a plan to train 1,000 by the end of the year.

謝謝，德里克。讓我們從安全開始。我們相信所有事故和傷害都是可以預防的，我們的首要任務是確保每個人在每天結束時都安全地繼續前進。在我們這樣一個充滿活力的環境中，我們的團隊每天都會做出數百個決定，以確保安全順利進行。為了支持我們的前線，我們實施了一項全面的計劃，強調行為改變以及主動識別危險和高風險行為。我們已經對近 500 名第一線管理人員進行了減少暴露技術和人員績效方面的培訓，並計劃在年底前培訓 1,000 名一線管理人員。

Prepare division of leading safety indicators to tailor programs and tools to prevent the most common incidents, eliminating hazards where possible. Along with our lock derailment sites, our Four Season walking simulator we're excited and as another industry first, our Slack simulator. The simulator teaches employees techniques for riding equipment while introducing in-train forces or Slack.

準備主要安全指標的劃分，以自訂計劃和工具來預防最常見的事件，並儘可能消除危險。除了我們的鎖脫軌站點、我們的四季步行模擬器之外，我們還很興奮，作為另一個行業第一，我們的 Slack 模擬器。模擬器向員工傳授騎乘設備的技術，同時引進列車內部隊或 Slack。

We continue to engineer industry-leading real-life experiences in a controlled environment to best prepare our teams in the field. I'm pleased with our safety performance in the third quarter, where we saw a 30% improvement in the accident frequency ratio and a 4% improvement in the (inaudible) frequency rate. We are always striving for zero injuries and zero accidents.

我們繼續在受控環境中設計行業領先的現實生活體驗，以便為我們的現場團隊做好最好的準備。我對第三季的安全表現感到滿意，事故頻率比提高了 30%，（聽不清楚）頻率提高了 4%。我們始終致力於零傷害、零事故。

Turning to resourcing the network. We continue to pick steps to adjust to the volume environment. We have stopped hiring furloughed in surplus areas and are seeing our head count gradually come down as we experience attrition. We are purposefully parking locomotives and cars and can flex up quickly when the volumes [bounce] back. In addition, our asset utilization strategy to drive availability through improved reliability has been making the most of the locomotives and cars that are online while lowering our cost to operate.

轉向資源網路。我們繼續採取措施來適應成交量環境。我們已經停止在過剩地區招募休假人員，隨著人員流失，我們的員工數量逐漸減少。我們有目的地停放機車和汽車，並在數量[反彈]回升時迅速恢復。此外，我們透過提高可靠性來提高可用性的資產利用策略充分利用了線上機車和車輛，同時降低了營運成本。

Our strategy includes software enhancements to improve maintenance scheduling executing our DC to AC modernization plan and process changes to reduce shop dwell. Altogether, our high horsepower locomotive availability has increased translate to 30 more locomotives available per day while lowering costs on maintenance and materials, which over time will reduce the capital required for additional locomotives as volume increases.

我們的策略包括軟體增強，以改善維護計劃，執行我們的直流到交流現代化計劃和流程變更，以減少車間停留時間。總而言之，我們的高馬力機車可用性已增加，每天可提供的機車數量增加了30 台，同時降低了維護和材料成本，隨著時間的推移，隨著數量的增加，這將減少額外機車所需的資本。

Additionally, we've improved our work block planning and productivity, achieving a 5% unit cost improvement with our Thai installations compared to 2023 in the face of labor and material increases. The railroad is running well. The plan is working, and we're set up to maintain fluidity.

此外，我們還改進了工作塊規劃和生產力，在勞動力和材料增加的情況下，與 2023 年相比，我們的泰國裝置單位成本降低了 5%。鐵路運作良好。該計劃正在發揮作用，我們已準備好保持流動性。

We have available capacity in the eastern and southern regions to easily onboard growth. In the West, we have sufficient capacity to efficiently handle growth, and we are staying close to Remi and his team to make sure that we have a clear line of sight to the medium and longer-term volume outlook. For instance, this year, we are continuing to invest in double track on the Edson Sub, West of Edmonton, which will enable us to maintain velocity and fluidity as we bring on growth in energy, bulk, in intermodal markets.

我們在東部和南部地區擁有可用產能，可以輕鬆成長。在西方，我們有足夠的能力來有效地應對成長，我們與雷米和他的團隊保持密切聯繫，以確保我們對中長期銷售前景有清晰的認識。例如，今年，我們將繼續投資埃德蒙頓以西的埃德森地鐵雙線，這將使我們能夠在實現能源、散裝和多式聯運市場增長的同時保持速度和流動性。

On that, I'll pass it over to Remi to give more color on the commercial side.

關於這一點，我將把它交給雷米，以便在商業方面提供更多的色彩。

All right. Thank you, Pat. (spoken in foreign language). CN grew revenue by 3% in the quarter against last year and volume by 2% in RTM terms, led by long-haul international intermodal and refined petroleum products, including CN-specific initiatives and stronger Canadian grain exports.

好的。謝謝你，帕特。（用外語說）。 CN 在本季的營收較去年同期成長了 3%，以 RTM 計算，銷量成長了 2%，這主要得益於長途國際聯運和精煉石油產品，包括 CN 的具體舉措和加拿大穀物出口的強勁。

Business has been a bit more challenging than expected due to the labor uncertainty and lower-than-expected industrial production and manufacturing activity and mixed signals around consumer confidence. Revenue per RTM improved by 1%, reflecting higher freight rates, but also longer average length of haul. Foreign exchange and fuel surcharge impacts were small and offsetting. Carload volumes slipped by 2%, mostly due to lower domestic intermodal, automotive and short-haul iron ore shipments.

由於勞動力不確定性、工業生產和製造業活動低於預期以及消費者信心的混合訊號，業務比預期更具挑戰性。每個 RTM 的收入提高了 1%，反映了運費率的提高，以及平均運輸距離的延長。外匯和燃油附加費的影響很小且相互抵消。整車量下降 2%，主要是由於國內多式聯運、汽車和短途鐵礦石運輸量下降。

Let's take a look sector by sector on an FX-adjusted basis. Overall, intermodal RTMs grew by 7% in the quarter against last year and revenue was flat. This reflects an 18% increase in international RTMs and offset by a 14% decrease in domestic. Volumes started to soften in the second quarter and through the third due to the labor situation as shippers activated contingency plans, including port diversions and modal shifts.

讓我們按外匯調整後的各個行業來看看。整體而言，本季多式聯運 RTM 較去年同期成長 7%，但營收持平。這反映了國際 RTM 成長 18%，但被國內 RTM 下降 14% 所抵消。由於托運人啟動了應急計劃，包括港口改道和運輸方式轉變，勞動力狀況導致第二季和第三季的貨運量開始疲軟。

Q3 international volume still shows a year-over-year improvement as we moved more traffic through Western gateways and gained key customer wins by selling end-to-end supply chain efficiency. But the domestic volume in the quarter reflects the full impact of combined pressure from labor uncertainty, market softness and an oversupply of truck capacity. The shift in mix and the resulting increase in average length of haul pushed revenue per RTM down by 7%.

第三季的國際貨運量仍然同比有所改善，因為我們透過西方門戶轉移了更多流量，並透過銷售端到端供應鏈效率贏得了關鍵客戶。但本季的國內銷售量反映了勞動力不確定性、市場疲軟和卡車運力供過於求等綜合壓力的全面影響。組合的轉變以及由此導致的平均運輸長度的增加導致每 RTM 收入下降了 7%。

Quarterly automotive RTMs dropped by 5% and revenue by 10% year-over-year on account of rising dealer inventory toward pre-pandemic levels as well as plant outages and retooling. Revenue per RTM slipped by 5%, reflecting a 7% increase in length of haul due to the relative shift in mix towards the import business. We saw RTMs in revenue in petroleum and chemicals grow by 10% -- by 9% and 10% in the quarter, respectively, due mainly to refined fuels and NGLs, including projects like the Greater Toronto Area fuel terminal and propane exports through Prince Rupert. For Metals & Minerals, quarterly RTMs and revenues were down by 5% and 4%, respectively.

由於經銷商庫存增加至疫情前水準以及工廠停工和重組，季度汽車 RTM 年減 5%，營收年減 10%。每 RTM 收入下滑 5%，反映出由於組合相對轉向進口業務而導致運輸長度增加 7%。我們看到石油和化學品的RTM 收入成長了10%，本季分別成長了9% 和10%，這主要歸功於精煉燃料和液化天然氣，包括大多倫多地區燃料碼頭和透過魯珀特王子港出口丙烷等項目。對於金屬和礦物業務，季度 RTM 和收入分別下降了 5% 和 4%。

After a very strong year for frac sand, volumes softened late in the quarter due to an earlier-than-expected seasonal slowdown in drilling activity. Our shipments of other metals and minerals reflect market conditions for steel and construction materials, modal shifts with the labor uncertainty and certain customer production interruptions. The prolonged lumber market slump contributed to a 7% drop in forest product RTMs and a 1% decrease in revenue. In fact lumber prices are forcing many sawmills to curtail production.

壓裂砂經歷了非常強勁的一年，由於鑽井活動季節性放緩早於預期，本季末成交量有所疲軟。我們其他金屬和礦物的出貨量反映了鋼鐵和建築材料的市場狀況、勞動力不確定性和某些客戶生產中斷所帶來的模式轉變。木材市場長期低迷導致林產品 RTM 下降 7%，收入下降 1%。事實上，木材價格上漲迫使許多鋸木廠削減產量。

Overall, coal RTMs fell by 9% and revenue by 6% and on account of production and supply inconsistencies at various Canadian mines as well as a further deterioration in US thermal coal demand. Grain and fertilizer RTMs improved by 4% and revenue by 8% on strong demand for both Canadian and US grain. In fact, our brain RTMs were up by 15%, but the impact was offset by lower fertilizer volume as we lap last year's non-recurring export potash opportunity from the Portland terminal outage.

總體而言，由於加拿大各礦場的生產和供應不一致以及美國動力煤需求進一步惡化，煤炭 RTM 下降了 9%，收入下降了 6%。由於對加拿大和美國穀物的強勁需求，穀物和化肥 RTM 提高了 4%，收入成長了 8%。事實上，我們的大腦 RTM 上升了 15%，但影響被肥料用量減少所抵消，因為我們錯過了去年因波特蘭碼頭停駛而產生的非經常性出口鉀肥的機會。

Despite a more challenging macroeconomic environment than expected, CN-specific growth initiatives continued to deliver. For example, we have line of sight on growing frac sand terminal capacity in support of drilling activity in Northeast BC and Alberta with one unit train terminal set to open before the end of this year and tracking for two more next year.

儘管宏觀經濟環境比預期更具挑戰性，但針對中國的成長措施仍持續取得成效。例如，我們的目標是提高壓裂砂終端容量，以支持不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部和艾伯塔省的鑽井活動，其中一個列車終端將於今年年底前開放，並預計明年將再開放兩個。

Second, we're building our renewables story with the ramp-up of crush plant capacity on both sides of the border. And finally, the Greater Toronto Area fuel terminal is ramping up on expectation receiving greater volumes of gasoline, diesel, and ethanol into a growing end market, and we're making good progress with our partners for the second phase of the project targeting an operation towards the end of next year.

其次，我們正在透過提高邊境兩側破碎廠的產能來打造我們的再生能源故事。最後，大多倫多地區的燃料碼頭正在加速建設，預計將有更多的汽油、柴油和乙醇進入不斷增長的終端市場，我們正在與合作夥伴一起在該項目的第二階段取得良好進展，該項目的目標是營運到明年年底。

Here's what we expect to see in the fourth quarter by business unit. Despite soft consumer confidence in the US and Canada, we're looking for sequential and year-over-year growth in intermodal on continued momentum around the international business. Prince Rupert remains a compelling gateway for customers. As we turn the page on the labor situation, we're working very hard to regain our earlier momentum for West Coast volumes by selling our service advantage.

以下是我們預期第四季按業務部門劃分的情況。儘管美國和加拿大的消費者信心疲軟，但我們預計，隨著國際業務的持續增長，多式聯運將實現環比和同比增長。魯珀特王子港仍然是吸引顧客的門戶。當我們翻開勞動力狀況的新一頁時，我們正在非常努力地透過出售我們的服務優勢來恢復早期西海岸銷量的勢頭。

Success here will be in the share of US destination mix which we expect will return gradually based on our experience following last year's port strike. Accordingly, we've seen volumes recover more quickly in the domestic segment compared to International. But I should note that there is still an overhang of lingering labor uncertainty at some Canadian ports.

這裡的成功將在於美國目的地組合的份額，我們預計根據去年港口罷工後的經驗，美國目的地組合將逐漸恢復。因此，與國際市場相比，我們發現國內市場的銷售量恢復得更快。但我應該指出，加拿大一些港口仍然存在揮之不去的勞動力不確定性。

For automotive, we expect to see volumes stable to slightly down against last year in line with the CN served plant schedules and OEM sales forecasts. Petroleum and chemicals should continue to perform well and in line with last year, supported by the projects despite offsetting crude shipments and an unfavorable change in NGL mix. Frac sand volumes will soften after an exceptionally strong four quarters due to an earlier year-end seasonal slowdown.

對於汽車行業，我們預計銷量將比去年穩定略有下降，這與 CN 服務的工廠時間表和 OEM 銷售預測一致。儘管抵消了原油運輸量和液化天然氣組合的不利變化，但在這些項目的支持下，石油和化學品應繼續表現良好，與去年一致。由於年初的年底季節性放緩，壓裂砂產量在經歷了異常強勁的四個季度後將有所減弱。

Our volume expectation for other metals and minerals against last year is flat to slightly down due to softer market demand. With a difficult lumber market, we don't expect significant improvement in forest products in the new near term, but we should see a seasonal uptick in overall volume against last quarter. For gold, we expect a slight year-over-year uptick in overall volume as run rates improved sequentially, including the ramp-up of the restarted Quintette Coal Line.

由於市場需求疲軟，我們對其他金屬和礦物的產量預期與去年持平或略有下降。由於木材市場困難，我們預計近期林產品不會顯著改善，但我們應該會看到總產量較上季出現季節性上升。對於黃金而言，我們預計隨著開工率連續改善，包括重啟 Quintette 煤炭生產線的增加，整體成交量將比去年同期略有上升。

(inaudible) record Canadian shipments in September, grain is strong, and we're looking to sustain the momentum into Q4 by running the supply chain to capacity. The US, we're looking at an oversized crop in our draw territory, which is good for volumes. The lower potash against last year's opportunistic gains due to the Portland terminal outage will be a bit of a drag. Overall, our expectation is that volumes will continue to grow with initiatives unique to our network on a backdrop of a weaker-than-expected economic landscape. Ghislain, wrap it up.

（聽不清楚）加拿大 9 月的出貨量創歷史新高，穀物強勁，我們希望透過讓供應鏈達到最大產能來維持第四季的動能。在美國，我們在我們的抽籤地區看到了超大的產量，這對銷售有利。由於波特蘭碼頭停駛，去年鉀肥的機會主義收益有所下降，將對鉀肥造成一定的拖累。整體而言，我們的預期是，在經濟情勢弱於預期的背景下，透過我們網路獨有的舉措，交易量將持續成長。吉斯蘭，把它包起來。

(spoken in foreign language) Turning to slide 14. Q3 diluted EPS was up 2% versus last year. The operating ratio increased by 110 basis points to 63.1%. Obviously, volumes and costs were impacted by the Alberta wildfires in July and the work stoppage in August. From a macroeconomic perspective, lumber remains at the trough and consumer consumption continues to be tested. Overall, revenues were up 3% year-over-year.

（用外語發言）轉向投影片 14。第三季攤薄後每股收益較去年增長 2%。開工率成長110個基點至63.1%。顯然，產量和成本受到 7 月艾伯塔省野火和 8 月停工的影響。從宏觀經濟角度來看，木材仍處於低谷，消費者消費持續面臨考驗。總體而言，營收年增 3%。

Let me provide you with more details on the quarter. In terms of expenses, which I will speak to on an exchange adjusted basis, labor was 2% higher versus last year, up 2% higher average head count. General wage increases partly offset by lower incentive compensation. We also saw higher short-term unproductive costs in the quarter relative to dead heading, recrews and held a weight costs mostly due to the work stoppage in August. Fuel expense increased 5% versus the same period last year due to a 2% increase in gross ton miles, 3% unfavorable fuel efficiency and a true-up to interfere fuel estimates in the quarter, partially offset by a 6% decrease in price per gallon.

讓我向您提供有關本季度的更多詳細資訊。就費用而言（我將在匯率調整後的基礎上討論），勞動力比去年增加了 2%，平均人數增加了 2%。整體薪資成長被較低的激勵性薪酬部分抵消。我們還發現本季的短期非生產成本相對於空頭、船員和重量成本較高，這主要是由於 8 月的停工造成的。由於總噸英里增加 2%、不利的燃油效率增加 3% 以及本季度乾擾燃油估計的調整，燃油費用與去年同期相比增加了 5%，但每單位價格下降 6% 部分抵消了這一影響。加侖。

Purchased services and material increased by 5% versus last year, mostly due to higher material and repair costs. We generated around $2.1 billion of free cash flow year-to-date at the end of September, about $200 million lower than last year, mainly due to higher capital expenditures partly offset by higher net cash from operating activities. Under our current share repurchase program, which runs from February 1, 2024, through January 31, 2025, we have repurchased close to 12 million shares for almost $2.1 billion as at the end of September. We have paused our share buybacks as we continue to manage to our 2.5 times adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage target.

購買的服務和材料比去年增加了 5%，主要是因為材料和維修成本增加。截至 9 月底，我們今年迄今產生了約 21 億美元的自由現金流，比去年減少約 2 億美元，主要是由於資本支出增加，部分被經營活動淨現金增加所抵消。根據我們目前的股票回購計畫（從2024年2月1日到2025年1月31日），截至9月底，我們已回購近1,200萬股股票，價值近21億美元。我們已暫停股票回購，因為我們繼續努力將調整後債務調整至調整後 EBITDA 槓桿目標的 2.5 倍。

Moving to slide 15. We are affirming the guidance provided in our September 10, press release of low single-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth in 2024. As we enter the final few months of the year, overall industrial production now looks to be largely flat for 2024. The good news is that we are encouraged by the progress of our CN-specific growth initiatives and the Canadian grain crop that Remi just mentioned. We are continuing to assume volume growth in terms of RTMs to be at the lower end of the 3% to 5% range mindful that labor uncertainty persists at some of our Canadian ports.

轉到投影片 15。我們確認 9 月 10 日新聞稿中提供的 2024 年調整後攤薄每股收益低個位數成長的指引。隨著進入今年最後幾個月，2024 年整體工業生產目前看來基本持平。好消息是，我們對加拿大特定成長計畫和雷米剛才提到的加拿大穀物作物的進展感到鼓舞。我們繼續假設 RTM 數量增長處於 3% 至 5% 範圍的下限，同時考慮到加拿大一些港口仍然存在勞動力不確定性。

On our operations, I would reinforce that the network is fluid and running very well. We continue to take steps to align resources with our volume outlook and expect to see the benefit of our actions reflected in improved fourth quarter margins. Our foreign exchange and WTI assumptions continue to be around $0.75 and USD 80 to USD 90 a barrel, respectively. Our effective tax rate for 2024 is not now expected to be between 24% and 25%. We're also affirming our '24 to '26 financial outlook of adjusted diluted EPS CAGR in the high single-digit range.

在我們的營運中，我要強調的是，網路是流暢的並且運作良好。我們繼續採取措施使資源與我們的銷售前景保持一致，並期望看到我們行動的好處反映在第四季度利潤率的提高中。我們的外匯和 WTI 假設繼續分別為每桶 0.75 美元和 80 美元至 90 美元左右。我們 2024 年的有效稅率目前預計不會在 24% 至 25% 之間。我們也確認了 24 至 26 年調整後稀釋每股盈餘複合年增長率在高個位數範圍內的財務前景。

In conclusion, let me reiterate a few points. The network is running well and is fully recovered from the work stoppage in the quarter. Our CN-specific growth opportunities are continuing to deliver. We are delivering industry-leading service to our customers, and we remain intensely focused on delivering growth at low incremental cost.

最後，讓我重申幾點。網路運作良好，已從本季停工中全面恢復。我們針對中國的成長機會正在繼續提供。我們正在為客戶提供領先業界的服務，並且我們仍然專注於以低增量成本實現成長。

Let me pass it back to Tracy.

讓我把它傳回給特雷西。

Thanks, Ghislain. Operator, we'll now take questions.

謝謝，吉斯蘭。接線員，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

肯‧霍克斯特，美國銀行。

Well, great. Good afternoon. Just, you kind of threw in there, we expect the operating ratio improving kind of in the fourth quarter, given the things you move beyond. Can you talk about kind of scale, how should we think about the level of sequential improvement from third quarter to fourth quarter?

嗯，太好了。午安.只是，考慮到您所超越的事情，我們預計第四季度的營運比率會有所改善。您能談談規模嗎？

Ken, it's Tracy. I'll take the first step of that and I know Ghis will play a little cleanup for me on it. Without a doubt, our margin is going to improve in Q4. Now Q3, as, is normally the quarter that we have our best margins, and this year, it's going to be Q4. We're pushing hard to rightsize the railroad to the volume that we now expect. And I think what's really going to determine exactly where it lands is international volumes. Remi is watching that very closely and working hard to get that up again. And that will drive exactly where it's going to end up. Ghis, anything to add?

肯，這是特雷西。我會踏出第一步，我知道吉斯會為我做一些清理工作。毫無疑問，我們的利潤率將在第四季度有所改善。現在，第三季通常是我們利潤率最高的季度，而今年將是第四季。我們正在努力調整鐵路規模，使其達到我們現在預期的數量。我認為真正決定其落地位置的是國際銷售。雷米正在密切關注這一情況，並努力將其重新恢復。這將準確地推動它的最終結果。吉斯，有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think you covered it well. I think we're not going to provide a number, but definitely, we're confident that we will get a better over in Q4 than we did in Q3 with all the noise that you're all aware of, Ken. So stay tuned on that one. But I think we're going to deliver a better one and our margins are going to improve.

不，我認為你覆蓋得很好。我認為我們不會提供一個數字，但我們肯定有信心在第四季度取得比第三季度更好的成績，因為你們都知道，肯。所以請繼續關注這一點。但我認為我們將提供更好的產品，我們的利潤率也會提高。

Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

Fadi Chamoun，BMO 資本市場。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just on this volume guide because a low end of that 3% to 5% range, if I'm backing the numbers, okay, means that you have to grow volume almost 12% sequentially and 3% year-on-year, you're down, I think, somewhere around 2.5% quarter-to-date. But how much visibility and conviction do you have in some of these levers that Remi you talked about in terms of how you can ramp up through the quarter?

午安.感謝您提出我的問題。也許只是在這個交易量指南上，因為 3% 到 5% 範圍的低端，如果我支持這些數字，好吧，意味著你必須將交易量連續增長近 12%，同比增長 3%，你我認為，本季迄今下降了2.5% 左右。但是，就如何在本季度提升業績而言，您對雷米談到的其中一些槓桿有多少可見度和信念？

Thanks for the question. So yes, so sequentially, there is an update that we're looking at year-over-year, it will be a little flatter. But I'd tell you that the tailwinds that we have behind us are strong grain. We talked about we were coming off a record September here and the US grain crop also looks good. Petroleum and chemicals sequentially will be strong on some of the projects. It's a bit of a headwind from mix on NGLs recovering domestic intermodal also will be good. But look, we're fighting into a macro environment with a bit of headwind here.

謝謝你的提問。所以，是的，所以接下來，我們會逐年更新，它會變得更加平坦。但我要告訴你的是，我們身後的順風是強勁的穀物。我們談到我們即將迎來創紀錄的 9 月份，美國糧食產量看起來也不錯。石油和化學品在一些項目上將依次表現強勁。NGL 的恢復帶來了一些不利因素，國內多式聯運也將帶來好處。但看，我們正在面對一個有一些逆風的宏觀環境。

And as Tracy talked about recovering the US mix in our Western gateways for Intermodal is going to be one of the things that we're going to be very, very focused on. And the other piece is potash. We're coming off and lapping against a very strong year last year with the opportunistic potash moves that we have. But overall, yes, we're down a little bit quarter-to-date, it is pretty early, but I think we're comfortable with the low end of the range that we guided to.

正如特雷西談到的那樣，在我們的西部門戶中恢復美國的多式聯運組合將是我們將非常非常關注的事情之一。另一塊是鉀肥。去年，我們透過機會主義的鉀肥走勢，迎來了非常強勁的一年。但總的來說，是的，我們本季迄今略有下降，現在還為時過早，但我認為我們對我們指導的範圍的低端感到滿意。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

Thanks. Good afternoon. I guess I maybe wanted to ask about the resource alignment. So relative to the demand that you're seeing, certainly sounds like demand maybe is a little bit softer than what you're hoping for earlier in the year. But I guess maybe be a little bit more specific about what are the sort of levers you can pull to kind of get the cost structure a little bit better aligned. And I know it's early, but as you're starting to think about '25 in the context of that longer-term CAGR, can you maybe give us a little bit of parameters of how you're thinking about potential earnings growth?

謝謝。午安.我想我可能想問一下資源調整的問題。因此，相對於您所看到的需求，聽起來需求可能比您今年早些時候所希望的要軟一些。但我想也許可以更具體地說明可以使用哪些槓桿來使成本結構更好地協調一致。我知道現在還為時過早，但是當您開始在長期複合​​年增長率的背景下考慮 25 年時，您能否給我們一些關於您如何考慮潛在盈利增長的參數？

So Chris, I'll take the start end of that. Earlier this year, we were still optimistic about economic growth. And then, of course, we have the CN initiatives on top of that. And up and through probably early to mid-May, we were running from a volume perspective, well ahead of our plan, particularly in international as we constructed our portfolio there. When the labor uncertainty kind of hit, I would say it got pretty money for us to figure out what to be ready for when we got through there. But as we've come through that, it's pretty clear that there is a softer kind of macroeconomic environment than we had anticipated.

克里斯，我來開始吧。今年早些時候，我們對經濟成長仍持樂觀態度。當然，除此之外我們還有 CN 計畫。從五月初到五月中旬，我們從數量角度來看，遠遠超出了我們的計劃，特別是在國際市場，因為我們在那裡建立了我們的投資組合。當勞動力不確定性來臨時，我想說，我們可以得到相當多的錢來弄清楚當我們度過難關後要做什麼準備。但正如我們經歷過的那樣，很明顯宏觀經濟環境比我們預期的要溫和。

And as we look forward, we see that continuing through next year, so kind of lower and longer. And so we are -- we started in Q2, as I said earlier, but we are starting to make those adjustments. And we're driving pretty hard to this new view of what volume is going to look like. We're doing it differently across the different regions. But Pat, why don't you give a bit of an overview around the levers that we're pulling, as Chris said.

展望未來，我們看到這種情況會持續到明年，而且會更低、更長。正如我之前所說，我們從第二季開始，但我們正在開始做出這些調整。我們正在努力推動對銷量的新看法。我們在不同地區採取不同的做法。但是帕特，你為什麼不像克里斯所說的那樣，對我們正在推動的槓桿進行一些概述。

Certainly can. So we continue to adjust all of our resource levels to match the volumes that we see. You can see the changes in our FTE counts, particularly transportation, (inaudible) engine service folks. We're as you see the transition from Q2 into Q3, we were down about 200 training engine FTEs, and now we're down well over 600 on the training engine service side.

當然可以。因此，我們繼續調整所有資源水平以匹配我們看到的數量。您可以看到我們的 FTE 計數的變化，特別是運輸、（聽不清楚）引擎服務人員。正如您所看到的，從第二季到第三季的過渡，我們減少了大約 200 個訓練引擎 FTE，現在我們在訓練引擎服務方面減少了 600 多個。

We parked 140 locomotives. We have returned over 1,000 center beams that were leased. We've reduced intermodal platforms by 20%, by driven primarily by off-lining cars to foreign railroads. And we continue to evaluate each and every day, the resources that are needed for the volumes that we see and we'll continue to make those changes.

我們停放了140輛機車。我們已歸還 1,000 多根租賃的中心梁。我們已將多式聯運平台減少了 20%，主要由下線車輛驅動前往外國鐵路。我們每天都會繼續評估我們所看到的數量所需的資源，我們將繼續做出這些改變。

So let me just kind of close up on that. The railroad is running really well, really well, in fact, almost a little too well. I want a little bit more tension between the volumes and kind of our operating capacity. So the guys are on it and we're driving down to the levels that we need to, to make sure that our margins are in the right place as we look forward. The secret to this and the art more of this is making sure that we take it to a level that leaves us with the capability to grow with our customers as we look forward.

讓我來談談這一點。鐵路運行得非常好，非常好，事實上，幾乎有點太好了。我希望我們的業務量和營運能力之間的關係更加緊張。因此，大家都在努力，我們正在努力降低到我們需要的水平，以確保我們的利潤率處於我們預期的正確位置。其秘訣及其藝術在於確保我們將其提升到一個水平，使我們有能力在未來與客戶一起成長。

We have great line of sight on the CN-specific initiatives. Remi talked about some of them. when we're replenishing that pipeline. The big question is where we put the pin on the macroeconomic. And we're doing that work as we finish off the year here, and we'll have a little bit more color for you. in January when we talk to you then. Thanks for the question, Chris.

我們對 CN 的具體舉措有很好的看法。雷米談到了其中的一些。當我們補充該管道時。最大的問題是我們把重點放在宏觀經濟上。我們正在做這項工作，因為我們今年即將結束，我們將為您提供更多的色彩。一月我們和你談話的時候。謝謝你的提問，克里斯。

Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Cowen.

謝裡琳·拉德伯恩，TD·考恩。

Thanks very much. Good afternoon. When you think about the curve balls that 2024 has grown up at CN and let that aside the CIRB process because that was really unusual and shouldn't recur, can you talk about how you're factoring geopolitical issues and environmental events into your planning process today versus how you would have done in the past? And what do you think that will translate into any change in the way that you provide guidance in the future?

非常感謝。午安.當您想到2024 年在CN 發展的曲線球時，並把CIRB 流程放在一邊，因為這確實不尋常且不應該再次發生，您能否談談您如何將地緣政治問題和環境事件納入您的規劃流程今天與過去你會怎麼做？您認為這會導致您未來提供指導的方式發生什麼變化？

That's a really important question, Cherilyn. So let me tell you, yes, we do a lot more work than we ever have and do a lot more consulting on where we think and how we think the geopolitical events will impact volumes, whether it's between North America and the rest of the globe or within North America. And we know for sure, we'll never get it right. The idea is that we understand the range of outcomes well enough to be able to make important decisions around how we resource our plan.

這是一個非常重要的問題，Cherilyn。所以讓我告訴你，是的，我們做了比以往更多的工作，並就我們的想法以及我們認為地緣政治事件將如何影響數量進行了更多的諮詢，無論是在北美還是全球其他地區之間或北美境內。我們確信，我們永遠不會把事情做好。我們的想法是，我們充分了解結果的範圍，以便能夠圍繞如何為計劃提供資源做出重要決策。

Of course, important part of that process is also the consultations that we do with our customers. And that's always highly informative. They're close to their markets. They don't always get it right either. And so what it means for us, we may end up guiding differently in the future that remains to be seen. But what it means for us is that we set a plan and we're always looking for where we think we've got it wrong, and we need to be very responsive to changes as we're making adjustments now. But yes, without a doubt, it's getting more and more difficult.

當然，這個過程的重要部分也是我們與客戶進行的諮詢。這總是資訊豐富的。他們離市場很近。他們也不總是能做對。因此，這對我們意味著什麼，我們最終可能會以不同的方式指導未來，這還有待觀察。但這對我們來說意味著我們制定了一個計劃，我們總是在尋找我們認為錯誤的地方，並且我們需要在現在進行調整時對變化做出非常敏感的反應。但是，毫無疑問，它變得越來越困難。

What I like about what's happening is the responsiveness of the railroad. It seems that whether it's a change in flows or whether it's an event or time or otherwise on the railroad, we have a really resilient operating plan and the way this all starts is really good service to the customers, and that's what we're providing. Thanks for your question.

我喜歡正在發生的事情的是鐵路的響應能力。看來，無論是流量的變化，還是鐵路上的事件、時間或其他方面的變化，我們都有一個真正有彈性的運營計劃，而這一切的開始方式就是為客戶提供真正優質的服務，這就是我們所提供的。謝謝你的提問。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey, thanks, afternoon, guys. So I get the sequential margin improvement Q3 to Q4. Wondering if you think we can get back to year-over-year margin improvement in Q4? And then just separately, any update you can give us on pricing and how you feel about price heading into 2025? Are there opportunities for pricing to accelerate or not?

嘿，謝謝，下午，夥計們。因此，我得到了第三季到第四季的連續利潤率改善。想知道您是否認為我們可以在第四季度恢復利潤率的同比改善？另外，您可以向我們提供有關定價的任何最新資訊以及您對 2025 年價格的看法嗎？定價是否有加速的機會？

Scott, we are going to see sequential margin improvement in Q4, as you said. Where exactly that land as we resize kind of our resources is going to depend more on the volumes. And I would say that we've got great line of sight on most, the 1 that's really what's keeping an eye on is the international volume. So that could drive us a little bit up or a little bit down, and so we'll keep an eye on that.

斯科特，正如您所說，我們將看到第四季度利潤率連續改善。當我們調整資源規模時，土地的具體位置將更取決於數量。我想說的是，我們對大多數人都有很好的視野，真正關注的是國際銷售。因此，這可能會導致我們的股價上漲或下跌，因此我們將密切關注這一點。

And second question -- sorry, the second part of that, I don't recall what it was?

第二個問題──抱歉，第二部分，我不記得那是什麼了？

Pricing.

定價。

Pricing. So the pricing this year has been fairly strong. I would say that we have put together, as we told you we would, the international portfolio that fits our network. And as Remi talked about it a little bit earlier, it's based on the full end-to-end supply chain competitiveness and we've done what we need to do on that. It's an important part of our portfolio. Pricing outside of that has been strong as we round the turn and go into 2025, we expect pricing ahead of railroad deflation. Our service levels are at the level that I think we should expect that. Remi, did you want to add anything to that?

定價。所以今年的定價相當強勁。我想說的是，正如我們告訴過你的那樣，我們已經整合了適合我們網路的國際投資組合。正如雷米早些時候談到的，它基於完整的端到端供應鏈競爭力，我們已經做了我們需要做的事情。這是我們產品組合的重要組成部分。當我們進入 2025 年時，除此之外的定價一直很強勁，我們預計定價會先於鐵路通貨緊縮。我們的服務水準達到了我認為我們應該期望的水平。雷米，你想補充什麼嗎？

No, I think you covered it all, Tracy.

不，我想你已經涵蓋了這一切，特雷西。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

沃爾特‧斯普拉克林 (Walter Spracklin)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Thanks very much. Operator. Good afternoon, everyone. I just wanted to ask a bit on West Coast port activity and certainly with some of the inbounds we're seeing into L.A. Long Beach is starting to jam it up a little bit. We're seeing dwells go up there. Curious if that's leading to any opportunity, in particular for Prince Rupert. Are you seeing any new calls up there or even Vancouver as L.A. Long Beach gets a little bit jammed up?

非常感謝。操作員。大家下午好。我只是想詢問一些有關西海岸港口活動的情況，當然，我們看到洛杉磯長灘的一些入境活動開始有點擁擠。我們看到那裡有住宅。很好奇這是否會帶來任何機會，特別是對於魯珀特王子港來說。當洛杉磯長灘有點擁擠時，您是否看到那裡有任何新的呼叫，甚至是溫哥華？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Walter. I talked about it in the prepared remarks, but the key challenge for us is going to be to recover the US mix through our Western Gateway. So the feedback that we get from customers is that the consistency and reliability of our service are very important and that service is valuable to them. But as we recover from a significant disruption typically through Western gateways. Our business mix is probably 60-40 Canada to US. And as we recover from this, it's closer to 80-20.

是的。謝謝你的提問，沃特。我在準備好的演講中談到了這一點，但我們面臨的主要挑戰將是透過我們的西部門戶恢復美國的組合。因此，我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋是，我們服務的一致性和可靠性非常重要，而且服務對他們來說很有價值。但當我們從重大破壞中恢復過來時，通常是透過西方門戶。我們的業務組合大概是 60-40 加拿大到美國。當我們從中恢復過來時，比分已經接近 80-20。

So we know what the challenge is, but we've got a plan. And part of that is to talk to our customers about where we are and give them some de-risking around the binding arbitration so that they can feel comfortable coming back to us.

所以我們知道挑戰是什麼，但我們有一個計劃。其中一部分是與我們的客戶討論我們的情況，並為他們提供一些圍繞具有約束力的仲裁的風險降低措施，以便他們可以放心地回到我們身邊。

So what we're thinking about is that the pace of recovery, we're modeling to be closer to what it was on the recovery from last year's West Coast port strike. So that's going to take a little bit of time. The first two months, which we are at right now or a little bit uncertain. But as volume starts to come back, then we expect it to be a little bit more quickly.

因此，我們正在考慮的是，我們正在建模的復甦速度更接近去年西海岸港口罷工的復甦速度。所以這需要一點時間。前兩個月，我們現在還是有點不確定。但隨著成交量開始回升，我們預計回升速度會更快一些。

But certainly, the congestion that we see in the US ports, and there was a good report earlier this week on that. I think just underscores the value proposition from places like Rupert and Vancouver as the quickest highway down to Chicago, for example. So thanks for your question, Walter.

但可以肯定的是，我們在美國港口看到了擁堵，本週早些時候有一份關於這方面的很好的報告。我認為這只是強調了魯伯特和溫哥華等地作為通往芝加哥的最快高速公路的價值主張。謝謝你的提問，沃特。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

布蘭登·奧格倫斯基，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. I guess, given that you guys did change the three year CAGR outlook to high single digit on EPS. I was wondering if you could provide any detail on the composition of like volume and price like you did in your 2024 Analyst Meeting. And I think, Tracy, you just said the volume outlook in the near term, a little bit lower, but how does that shape up for those CN-specific opportunities in the out years?

嘿，大家下午好，感謝您提出我的問題。我想，鑑於你們確實將每股收益的三年複合年增長率展望調整為高個位數。我想知道您是否可以像在 2024 年分析師會議上那樣提供有關成交量和價格組成的任何詳細資訊。我認為，特雷西，您剛才提到了近期的銷售前景，有點低，但這對未來幾年針對中國的特定機會有何影響？

Brandon, the CN-specific opportunities are going to continue to give us a lift. But listen, we look forward to laying that out for you in January. Right now, we're focused on finishing the quarter and then getting our plan in place for next year, and we'll lay that out for you in January.

布蘭登，CN 特有的機會將繼續為我們帶來提升。但是聽著，我們期待在一月份為您提供這些內容。目前，我們的重點是完成本季度，然後製定明年的計劃，我們將在一月份為您制定計劃。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Thanks for the time. I was just hoping you could delve into a little bit more the early seasonal slowdown you've been seeing in frac sand. I know you also called frac sand as one of your growth opportunities on a self-help side. But is there anything specific driving that slowdown that you can see and whether or not you expect that to carry over into the new year?

謝謝你的時間。我只是希望你能更深入地研究你在壓裂砂中看到的早期季節性放緩。我知道您也將壓裂砂稱為自助的成長機會之一。但是，您是否可以看到任何具體因素導致經濟放緩？

Yes. No, thanks for the question. Yes, indeed. So we're coming off four very, very strong quarters for frac sand. Year-to-date through Q3 were up, I think, 13% to 15% in RTM terms. So we think a lot of that is just pull forward of some of the work. So as things have slowed down in Q4, we're still optimistic into next year. Our customers and their partners are building new terminals, and that's a great opportunity for CN because we can hold the sand up to the drilling sites and then we haul the NGLs to market. So we still feel comfortable, and that's based on our discussions with customers and the capital they're putting in the ground to build that turnover capacity.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問。是的，確實如此。因此，我們的壓裂砂有四個非常非常強勁的季度。我認為，從年初至今到第三季度，以 RTM 計算，成長了 13% 至 15%。所以我們認為其中很多只是一些工作的進展。因此，隨著第四季經濟放緩，我們對明年仍持樂觀態度。我們的客戶及其合作夥伴正在建造新的碼頭，這對 CN 來說是一個很好的機會，因為我們可以將沙子運送到鑽井現場，然後將液化天然氣運送到市場。因此，我們仍然感到放心，這是基於我們與客戶的討論以及他們為建立週轉能力而投入的資金。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧尚克，摩根士丹利。

Tracy, I think you said at the top of the call that I think the pipeline of new business accounts for about half of the growth next year, do you have a sense of what a normalized run rate for that is? I'm just trying to get a sense of what we can consider to be kind of just normal macro rebound versus new initiatives and kind of maybe what that net number looks like versus normalized?

崔西，我想你在電話會議的開頭說過，我認為新業務的成長約佔明年成長的一半，你知道它的正常運作率是多少嗎？我只是想了解一下，相對於新舉措，我們可以認為什麼是正常的宏觀反彈，以及淨數字與正常化相比是什麼樣子？

So thanks, Ravi. I think as you think about it, we always hold ourselves to growing faster than the economy. And certainly, that will be the case next year. What gives us the real lift is the CN-specific initiatives. And those aren't those can be choppy. So it doesn't come in equally at the new opportunities every month or every quarter, but what we did see is our customers investing in their infrastructure, we invest alongside where we need to make sure that we have the capacity to move it. But we make sure in those cases that we've got line of sight to the volumes that will give us the return on any investment that's required.

所以謝謝，拉維。我認為正如你所想，我們總是要求自己的成長速度快於經濟的成長速度。當然，明年也會如此。帶給我們真正提升的是 CN 的具體舉措。這些都不是那些可能會不穩定的。因此，每個月或每季的新機會並不是平等的，但我們確實看到的是我們的客戶投資他們的基礎設施，我們在需要確保我們有能力移動它的地方進行投資。但我們確保在這些情況下，我們能夠看到能夠為我們帶來所需投資回報的數量。

So Remi will, in January, play out more of what we see for next year, but it will be more you'll get an annualized view of it. But it's -- when as far as the new stuff that's coming on, it will be different every quarter. I hope that answered your question. Thank you.

因此，雷米將在一月份展示我們明年看到的更多內容，但您將更多地獲得年度視圖。但就即將推出的新產品而言，每季都會有所不同。我希望這回答了你的問題。謝謝。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

科納克·古普塔，豐業銀行。

Thanks, everybody, and good afternoon. Just wanted to understand, as we look into next year, the Canadian Grain Harvest seems like it's looking stronger from prior year, but any thoughts on the extended inter-switching rules that are being contemplated in Canada?

謝謝大家，下午好。只是想了解，當我們展望明年時，加拿大穀物收成似乎比去年更加強勁，但對加拿大正在考慮的延長相互轉換規則有何想法？

I'll start with that, and then we'll see if some -- Remi if any back up. I mean I got to tell you, we stand behind our service. And if we're servicing our customers well, I mean they're going to -- that's what draws them to our lines. And anything related to extended interswitching slows down of supply -- slows down a grain pipeline. It makes capital investment much more uncertain and cause problems from that perspective. We haven't seen any impact so far and don't expect to. And it's just based on service levels. Remi, did you want to add anything more?

我會從這個開始，然後我們會看看是否有一些——雷米（Remi）支持。我的意思是我必須告訴你，我們支持我們的服務。如果我們為客戶提供良好的服務，我的意思是他們就會這麼做——這就是吸引他們加入我們的原因。任何與延長的互換有關的事情都會減慢供應——減慢糧食管道的速度。它使資本投資變得更加不確定，並從這個角度來看會帶來問題。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何影響，也不期望看到任何影響。這只是基於服務水準。雷米，你還想補充什麼嗎？

Maybe to underscore, but we've done a very good job on green we've delivered strongly for our customers and earned good market share as a result, including a record September. So the crop size for next year, we'll have to see. We're kind of in the range of the three year boundary now. So we'll have to see how all that shakes out. At the end of the summer was a drier and warmer than I think we expected before. So (inaudible).

也許是為了強調，但我們在綠色方面做得非常好，我們為客戶提供了強有力的服務，並因此贏得了良好的市場份額，包括創紀錄的 9 月。因此，明年的產量如何，我們還得拭目以待。我們現在處於三年邊界的範圍內。所以我們必須看看這一切會如何發展。夏末的天氣比我們之前預期的更乾燥和溫暖。所以（聽不清楚）。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

布萊恩‧奧森貝克，摩根大通。

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon. A couple of quick follow-ups just on the -- getting the share back through the, I guess, the US destination to the West Coast, is there still hearing about uncertainty with, I guess, the final labor union out there to get their contract finalized. Does that come up in your conversations Remi. And then just from a staffing perspective, it sounds like you're making some adjustments. So I want to see if you can give us a little bit more context in terms of head count and maybe what average comp should be for this coming quarter.

嘿，謝謝。午安.一些快速的後續行動——我想，通過美國目的地返回西海岸，是否仍然聽到關於不確定性的消息，我想，最後一個工會在那裡得到他們的合約敲定。你們的談話中是否會提到這一點，雷米？然後，僅從人員配置的角度來看，聽起來您正在做出一些調整。因此，我想看看您是否可以為我們提供更多有關人員數量的背景信息，以及下個季度的平均薪酬應該是多少。

So on the first question, thank you for that. Yes, that is one of the things that comes up our international customers have some measure of needing to understand the long Shoreman supervisors Union in the West Coast. There's also the Port of Montreal that has some uncertainty around it. So that's part of the headwinds that we're facing and trying to provide some comfort to our customers.

關於第一個問題，謝謝你。是的，這是我們的國際客戶在某種程度上需要了解西海岸長期肖曼監管者聯盟的問題之一。蒙特利爾港也存在一些不確定性。因此，這是我們面臨的逆風的一部分，並試圖為我們的客戶提供一些安慰。

And maybe, Brian, just to jump in on your second question on average comfort employee. If you look at the average comp in Q3 versus Q2, it's lower by about 6%, and that's mostly due to lower incentive compensation, and we did a little bit more capital work in Q3 than in Q2. From a seasonality standpoint, typically average comp per employee in Q4 is typically higher because we have -- we do less capital work as we hit the winter engineering forces will go and clean switches, and we'll do less capital work and therefore, have less capital credit. So you can expect average cost on a sequential basis in Q4 to Q3 to probably go up. Thanks for your question.

布萊恩，也許只是想回答你關於普通安慰員工的第二個問題。如果你看一下第三季與第二季的平均薪酬，會發現它大約低了6%，這主要是由於激勵薪酬較低，而且我們在第三季比第二季做了更多的資本工作。從季節性的角度來看，第四季度每位員工的平均薪資通常較高，因為我們在冬季時做了較少的資本工作，工程人員將去清潔開關，我們將做更少的資本工作，因此，資本信貸較少。因此，您可以預期第四季至第三季的平均成本可能會上升。謝謝你的提問。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

Hey, good afternoon and thanks for hosting the call and taking the questions. You mentioned before about maybe kind of pulling back on the buyback a little bit as your credit metrics get to the higher end of your range. I guess I wonder if you guys are kind of coming out of this earnings growth trough and the multiples depressed, why wouldn't you maybe think about getting ahead of the buyback to make it a little bit more accretive kind of overall, right? I mean if growth does start to accelerate, the multiple starts to expand, you get a little bit less bang for the buck. I'm just wondering why you might not think about sort of front-loading some of this return to growth?

嘿，下午好，感謝您主持電話會議並回答問題。您之前提到過，當您的信用指標達到範圍的高端時，可能會稍微減少回購。我想我想知道你們是否已經走出了盈利增長的低谷和倍數低迷，為什麼你們不考慮提前回購以使其總體上更具增值性，對吧？我的意思是，如果經濟成長確實開始加速，市盈率開始擴大，那麼你得到的回報就會減少一些。我只是想知道為什麼你可能不考慮提前加載一些恢復增長的措施？

Yes, David, thanks for the question. Listen, this is a conundrum that we have and we debated on a quasi regular basis. To your point, when you believe that the stock price is down, why don't you do more versus managing to our leverage target of 2.5 times.

是的，大衛，謝謝你的提問。聽著，這是我們遇到的一個難題，我們常常進行辯論。就您而言，當您認為股價下跌時，為什麼不採取更多行動，而不是達到我們 2.5 倍的槓桿目標。

So far to your point in Q3, we've decided to manage to that target of 2.5 times average debt to EBITDA. We continue to have those questions. I mean we'll continue at the debate, stay tuned. We'll see what we do. But so far, we've managed to that target. And this is discussions that we have. I mean we actually had the discussion with our Board yesterday. So stay tuned on that, but that's what we're looking at. Thanks for your question, David.

到目前為止，第三季我們已經決定要實現 EBITDA 平均負債 2.5 倍的目標。我們仍然有這些問題。我的意思是我們將繼續辯論，敬請關注。我們會看看我們會做什麼。但到目前為止，我們已經實現了這個目標。這就是我們的討論。我的意思是，我們昨天實際上與董事會進行了討論。所以請繼續關注，但這就是我們正在關注的。謝謝你的提問，大衛。

Benoit Poirier, Desjardins.

伯努瓦‧普瓦里埃 (Benoit Poirier)，加鼎。

Thank you very much and good afternoon, everyone. Could you maybe provide an update on what do you see from Mexico these days in light of comments made by the new President and also the upcoming U.S. election, especially related to your Falcon premium service. And if you could say a few words on your trucking operation with TransX and H&R in light of the challenging fundamentals, that would be great. Thank you.

非常感謝大家，大家午安。根據新總統的評論以及即將到來的美國大選，您能否介紹一下您最近對墨西哥的看法，特別是與您的獵鷹優質服務相關的情況。鑑於充滿挑戰的基本面，如果您能簡單介紹一下您與 TransX 和 H&R 的貨運業務，那就太好了。謝謝。

There's a lot in that one. Let me just start by saying that we're watching all of the political scenarios across all borders very closely, but we're managing our business to what we see in front of us. I'm going to turn to Derek to talk a little bit about our Mexico business that we do in conjunction in that case with the generally, we're optimistic but he'll speak to it. And when it comes to transact and the other trucking operations, I'll have Remi make a couple of comments.

那裡面有很多東西。首先我要說的是，我們正在非常密切地關注所有邊界的所有政治局勢，但我們正在根據我們所看到的情況來管理我們的業務。我將轉向德里克談談我們在墨西哥的業務，我們在這種情況下與一般情況下一起做，我們很樂觀，但他會談論它。當談到交易和其他貨運業務時，我會讓雷米發表一些評論。

Yes. Thanks, Tracy. Listen, the bulk and service remains solid. I mean we continue to achieve a consistent liable-day transit time to Eastern Canada while we wish it would grow a bit faster. I mean it does take time, we set before for these customers to gain that trust. A lot of this product were moving is very time sensitive, but we've been very consistent. And we're playing a long game, we look at this. Our partners at the UP and the FX. I'd like to thank them because we have a three railroad service that acts as a single-line service in terms of (inaudible) time and the value of the product. So we're confident where it's at, and we'll keep after it. Remi?

是的。謝謝，特雷西。聽著，體積和服務仍然穩定。我的意思是，我們繼續實現到加拿大東部的一致責任日運輸時間，同時我們希望它能成長得更快一些。我的意思是，我們之前為這些客戶設定的贏得信任確實需要時間。很多產品的移動對時間非常敏感，但我們一直都非常一致。我們正在打一場持久戰，我們來看看這個。我們在 UP 和 FX 的合作夥伴。我要感謝他們，因為我們有三條鐵路服務，就（聽​​不清楚）時間和產品價值而言，它充當單線服務。因此，我們對它的位置充滿信心，並且我們將繼續追求它。雷米？

Yes. Thanks, Derek. And I guess what I'd say (inaudible) on the TransX, I mean if you look in our case, it's in the domestic intermodal business. And one of the challenges we have for domestic business is really around an oversupply of truck capacity, which we're still feeling there. And also that is closely correlated with consumer confidence. And so it is a challenging market in the domestic intermodal, but we expect sequentially to do better versus the third quarter as they're able to recover more quickly given the turnaround in assets.

是的。謝謝，德里克。我想我會在 TransX 上說（聽不清楚），我的意思是，如果你看看我們的案例，它是在國內多式聯運業務中。我們國內業務面臨的挑戰之一實際上是卡車運力供過於求，我們仍然感覺到這一點。這也與消費者信心密切相關。因此，國內多式聯運是一個充滿挑戰的市場，但我們預計第三季的業績會比第三季更好，因為考慮到資產的周轉，他們能夠更快地恢復。

Jon Chappell, Evercore ISI.

喬恩·查佩爾，Evercore ISI。

Thank you. Good afternoon. Derek and maybe Patrick as well. Just trying to understand how you're managing these resources and the softer demand backdrop while you're also still trying to recover volume to the West coast ports and there's all this uncertainty with labor, et cetera. How are you thinking about kind of the cost side of it in the short term versus maintaining service reliability. So if you do get that recovery in the West Coast, the service doesn't choke on a volume surge.

謝謝。午安.德瑞克，也許還有派崔克。只是想了解您如何管理這些資源和疲軟的需求背景，同時您仍在努力恢復西海岸港口的吞吐量，並且勞動力等方面存在所有這些不確定性。您如何看待短期內的成本面與維繫服務可靠性之間的關係。因此，如果西海岸確實恢復了，服務就不會因為流量激增而受到阻礙。

Okay. I'll take that one. And I would say this, that while we are aggressively adjusting the resources to mass the volume. We feel very good about where we are with this, we've created a locomotive surge fit with what we have parked. The mechanical improvements that I talked about, both in shop processes, reducing dwell. Some of the IT improvements we've made within the processes as well are producing for locomotives gives us more confidence in the local ones that we have stored. So I feel very good about where we are with locomotive availability should we have a surge.

好的。我會接受那個。我想說的是，儘管我們正在積極調整資源以擴大產量。我們對目前的情況感覺非常好，我們已經創造了一個與我們停放的東西相匹配的機車激增。我談到的機械改進，無論是在車間流程中，還是減少停留時間。我們在機車生產流程中所做的一些 IT 改進讓我們對我們儲存的本地產品更有信心。因此，如果我們出現激增，我對機車可用性的狀況感到非常滿意。

We feel good about where we are from a car perspective. And frankly, some of the self-help that we have done with simplifying the crewing structure, has produced a surplus and led us to some of the reductions that we've made in overall trading engine head count. So we feel good about where we are from a resource perspective. And the railroad is running very well, and that has also created capacity. Derek, anything to add?

從汽車的角度來看，我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。坦白說，我們在簡化船員結構方面所做的一些自助已經產生了盈餘，並導致我們在整體交易引擎人數方面進行了一些削減。因此，從資源角度來看，我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。鐵路運行得很好，這也創造了運能。德瑞克，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. No thanks, Pat. Pat and I are attached at the hip when we look at these resources and listen, I mean, when you look at it with the macroeconomic backdrop and other things, we have been very patient, and we've taken a very mature approach. When you look at this resource realignment we've recently done over the past time period really starting back with lead and attrition workforce starting in Q2 in certain places. So on a go-forward basis, not all locations are created equal, but we took more of a scaffold approach to where we needed to adjust those resources at together. Thanks for your questions.

是的。不用了，謝謝，帕特。當我們查看這些資源並傾聽時，帕特和我都非常著迷，我的意思是，當你從宏觀經濟背景和其他事物的角度來看待它時，我們一直非常耐心，並且我們採取了非常成熟的方法。當您查看我們最近在過去一段時間內所做的資源調整時，確實從某些地方的第二季度開始重新開始了領導和人員流失。因此，從長遠來看，並非所有地點都是平等的，但我們更多地採用了腳手架方法來共同調整這些資源。感謝您的提問。

Let me just stay on top of that one final thing is our service quality will always be primary, right? And so part of our part of our approach on the scheduled operating plan, and we think we've demonstrated that we deliver a really high level of service and what we're doing now is just resourcing the railroad to continue to do that at a slightly adjusted volume levels and as Derek said, it's precision stuff around where we're making those adjustments. Thanks so much, Jonathan.

讓我繼續關注最後一件事，我們的服務品質永遠是首要的，對吧？因此，我們對預定營運計劃的部分方法，我們認為我們已經證明我們提供了真正高水平的服務，我們現在所做的只是為鐵路提供資源，以繼續以最快的速度做到這一點。了音量水平，正如德里克所說，我們進行這些調整的地方是精確的。非常感謝，喬納森。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

Hi, good afternoon and thank you. I wanted to follow up on kind of your updated view on the underlying volume environment given your updated kind of mid-single-digit outlook given your updated midterm EPS outlook, I think historic -- or before you had said you were kind of viewing that CS specific initiatives would drive about half of the volume performance and then kind of the other half would be kind of macro driven. So as you look forward and what's embedded in the now high single-digit EPS growth. How would you kind of look at a balance between underlying market growth or macro and then your own specific initiatives?Thanks.

你好，下午好，謝謝。我想跟進您對基本成交量環境的最新看法，考慮到您更新的中個位數前景，考慮到您更新的中期每股收益前景，我認為具有歷史意義——或者在您說過您有這樣的看法之前CS 的具體舉措將推動約一半的銷售表現，而另一半將由宏觀驅動。所以，當你展望未來時，你會發現現在每股盈餘的高單位數成長中蘊藏著什麼。您如何看待潛在市場成長或宏觀成長與您自己的具體舉措之間的平衡？

Thanks, Stephanie. I think what we've said is that as we look forward that is -- we will grow faster than the economy, so faster than the macro. But about 50% of our volume growth is going to come from those CN-specific initiatives. And that may vary over time. But as we look forward right now, that's kind of the way that we're seeing it. And as we get as we confirm our numbers for 2025, and we're talking to you in January, we'll give you a little more color on that then. Thanks for the question.

謝謝，斯蒂芬妮。我認為我們所說的是，正如我們所期待的那樣，我們的成長速度將快於經濟，快於宏觀經濟。但我們約 50% 的銷售成長將來自這些針對 CN 的舉措。這可能會隨著時間的推移而變化。但當我們現在展望未來時，我們就是這樣看待它的。當我們確認 2025 年的數字時，我們將在 1 月與您交談，屆時我們將為您提供更多資訊。謝謝你的提問。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens Inc.

丹尼爾·因布羅，史蒂芬斯公司

Thanks. Good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe to come back to the near term kind of 4Q volume outlook you're betting. I think we're starting the quarter a little bit softer. You mentioned automotive, and I think chemicals are soft to start the quarter. so to reach the low end of this guide, I guess, are we assuming a change in that trend line and some of the weaker categories? Or what is embedded to drive that kind of improvement to get to at least the 4Q guide as we head into 2025?

謝謝。晚安.感謝您回答我的問題。也許回到您所押注的近期第四季銷售前景。我認為我們本季的開局會稍微溫和一些。您提到了汽車產業，我認為本季初化學品市場表現疲軟。因此，為了達到本指南的低端，我想，我們是否假設該趨勢線和一些較弱的類別發生變化？或者說，當我們邁入 2025 年時，有哪些因素可以推動這種改進，至少達到第四季的目標？

Well, for one thing, the big piece of the puzzle that we're going to work on is the international intermodal volumes which I talked about a little bit earlier, which includes driving our US mix through Western gateway. So that's going to be a big area of focus for us. The other businesses, grain has been strong and will continue to be strong, both in Canada and the US and then recovering in domestic intermodal as well.

嗯，一方面，我們要解決的最大難題是我之前談到的國際多式聯運量，其中包括透過西部門戶推動我們的美國組合。所以這將是我們關注的一個重點領域。其他業務，加拿大和美國的穀物業務一直強勁並將繼續強勁，然後國內多式聯運也將復甦。

So I mean, I think that, that should all carry us into the low end of the range that we guided to earlier. But as we said, there is a couple of pieces of headwind the potash is a hard comp against last year. And then there is the macro environment as well that we're navigating to. Thanks for the question.

所以我的意思是，我認為，這一切都應該讓我們進入我們之前指導的範圍的低端。但正如我們所說，鉀肥與去年相比存在一些不利因素。然後還有我們正在走向的宏觀環境。謝謝你的提問。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS Financial.

湯姆‧瓦德維茲 (Tom Wadewitz)，瑞銀金融集團。

Good afternoon. Tracy, at the beginning of the call, I think you talked about like the way the railroad is running. And I know we're calling back to kind of some of the things Ed did when he was kind of came in and set the team on a different core he moved away from train length and more just towards make sure you're on time and not waiting for trains. Is there an opportunity in the carload business to kind of review the schedule and maybe you look at train length a little bit or do some other things, if you see some of the weakness persist, right? Like I think some of the areas you talked about weakness seem like carload markets. And I'm just wondering if you can do anything on schedule that helps you if some of those markets stay weak? Or is that something where you just say, "Hey, we just want to maintain the service and we're not really going to do things on the train lengths or train starts? Thank you.

午安.特雷西，在通話開始時，我想你談到了鐵路的運作方式。我知道我們正在回顧埃德在進來時所做的一些事情，並將團隊置於不同的核心上，他遠離了火車長度，更多的是為了確保準時和不等火車。整車業務是否有機會審查時間表，如果您發現一些弱點仍然存在，也許您會稍微考慮一下列車長度或做一些其他事情，對吧？我認為你談到的一些弱點似乎是整車市場。我只是想知道，如果其中一些市場持續疲軟，您是否可以按計劃做一些對您有幫助的事情？或者您只是說：「嘿，我們只是想維持服務，我們不會真正在火車長度或火車開始時做任何事情？謝謝。

Tom. Well, for the first thing, we never moved away from train length. What we said was that the trains are going to depart on time. We're not going to hold them to wait for them to get longer before they depart. And so we want long transit depart on time. But what we're going to do is I'll make those decisions tactically every day, but we'll build that into the plant. So if we look at the operation every day, if we discover that there's opportunities to tweak the plan to refine the plan so that we can take out a train part combined trains and move longer trains than we do that, but that train departs on time. And it's not one or the other. It's what's primary. And for us, the scheduled operation is primary and will drive. Derek, or Pat, either one of you...

湯姆.嗯，首先，我們從未放棄火車長度。我們說的是火車會準時出發。我們不會讓他們等更長的時間才離開。因此我們希望長途運輸準時出發。但我們要做的是，我每天都會從戰術上做出這些決定，但我們會將其納入工廠。因此，如果我們每天查看操作，如果我們發現有機會調整計劃以完善計劃，以便我們可以拿出火車部分組合列車並移動比我們這樣做更長的火車，但該火車準時出發。這不是一個或另一個。這是首要的。對我們來說，預定的營運是首要的，並且會起到推動作用。德里克，或者帕特，你們中的任何一個...

Yes. No. Thomas, a great question. Listen, we have made some adjustments throughout the last two quarters. Now it's more of a scaffold approach because the Manifest volume is not down so significantly, two trends equal one. But there are certain days that we have taken a number of train starts out. So we're taking a mature approach where we're going to run our base plan and our schedule plan, but when we need to adjust, Pat and his team work together to make sure that happens. Pat, anything you want to add?

是的。不。湯瑪斯，一個很好的問題。聽著，我們在過去兩個季度進行了一些調整。現在它更像是一種腳手架方法，因為清單數量並沒有顯著下降，兩個趨勢等於一個。但有些日子我們會搭乘多班火車出發。因此，我們正在採取一種成熟的方法，我們將運行我們的基本計劃和時間表計劃，但當我們需要調整時，帕特和他的團隊共同努力確保實現這一目標。派特，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I would just say that we approached the plan from a perspective that we're going to produce a plan that the outcome is the train load and train line that we desire that maximizes locomotive and crew productivity while providing the customer service level that we expect, which is the customer service level is near industry best as we look at our local service adherence plan.

是的。我只想說，我們從這樣一個角度來製定計劃，即我們將製定一個計劃，其結果是我們希望最大限度地提高機車和乘務人員生產力的火車負載和火車線路，同時提供我們期望的客戶服務水平，當我們查看我們的本地服務遵守計劃時，這是接近行業最佳的客戶服務水平。

Ben Nolan, Stifel.

本諾蘭，史蒂菲爾。

I was going to ask a little bit about -- and knowing that you're going to talk a little bit more about the outlook in 2025. in January. Any early thoughts on how CapEx is expected to develop given focus on equipment efficiency and so forth.

我本來想問一些關於 2025 年展望的問題，並且知道您將在 1 月份更多地談論 2025 年的前景。鑑於對設備效率等的關注，關於資本支出預計如何發展的任何早期想法。

Yes. Capital is, of course, an important part of our plan for 2025 and every year. And as we put it together, it's based on a number of things, but one of those things is what the volume levels are. So maintenance capital, of course, is intended to replenish the network as you can consume it through day-to-day operations. And so what volume levels are and what they are over time, has an impact on how we think about maintenance capital. We'll be looking closely at that as we firm up volumes.

是的。當然，資本是我們 2025 年以及每年計劃的重要組成部分。當我們把它放在一起時，它基於很多因素，但其中之一就是音量水平。因此，維護資本當然是為了補充網絡，因為您可以透過日常營運消耗它。因此，數量水準以及隨著時間的推移，數量水準會影響我們對維護資本的看法。當我們確定銷量時，我們將密切關注這一點。

For the kind of return capital or the growth capital, we only spend that when we have a line of sight and a coordinated timing with our customers and our customer initiatives as that volume comes on, so that we've got line of sight to the intended returns on that capital. So we're working through all of that as we kind of put our plan together in -- for 2025, and you'll hear about it in January and more specifically. But just know that it's a dynamic plan.

對於回報資本或成長資本，我們只有在我們與客戶有一致的視線和協調的時間安排以及隨著數量的增加而採取的客戶計劃時才會花費這些資本，這樣我們就可以看到該資本的預期回報。因此，我們正在努力解決所有這些問題，同時我們正在製定 2025 年的計劃，您將在 1 月聽到更具體的消息。但要知道這是一個動態計劃。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Tracy Robinson.

問答環節到此結束。我現在想把電話轉回給特雷西·羅賓遜。

Thanks, Sarah. Now let me tell you that although it's been a very eventful year so far, where I think we're pretty well positioned through Q4 and as we advance in 2025. The railroad is running extremely well. We've got great momentum. Those CN-specific initiatives, Remi's talking about, they're advancing nicely, and they're delivering volume, and we're driving productivity and the sizing of our resources to make sure that they match customer demand. And so that we achieve the margins, the kind of margins that we expect and we deliver value to our shareholders.

謝謝，莎拉。現在讓我告訴您，儘管到目前為止這是非常多事的一年，但我認為我們在第四季度以及 2025 年的前進中處於相當有利的位置。鐵路運行得非常好。我們勢頭強勁。Remi 談到，這些針對 CN 的舉措進展順利，並且正在交付數量，而我們正在提高生產力和調整資源規模，以確保它們滿足客戶需求。這樣我們就能實現利潤，我們期望的利潤，並為股東創造價值。

I want to thank you all for joining us today, and I look forward to our next call in January. Thank you.

我要感謝大家今天加入我們，並期待一月份的下一次電話會議。謝謝。

The conference call has now ended. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

電話會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。