Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Christa and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Stacy Alderson, CN's Assistant Vice President of Investor Relations. Ladies and gentlemen, Ms. Alderson.

午安.我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員指示）現在，我想將電話轉給加拿大國家鐵路公司投資者關係助理副總裁 Stacy Alderson。女士們、先生們，奧爾德森女士。

Thank you, Christa. Welcome everybody, and thank you for joining us for CN's second quarter 2025 financial and operating results conference call. Joining us on the call today are Tracy Robinson, our President and CEO; Derek Taylor, our Chief Field Operations Officer; Pat Whitehead, our Chief Network Operations Officer; Janet Drysdale, our Interim Chief Commercial Officer; and Ghislain Houle, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，克里斯塔。歡迎大家，感謝您參加 CN 2025 年第二季財務與營運業績電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson、我們的首席現場營運長 Derek Taylor、我們的首席網路營運長 Pat Whitehead、我們的臨時首席商務官 Janet Drysdale 和我們的財務長 Ghislain Houle。

As note, we have forward-looking statements and non-GAAP definitions for your reference on page 2 of our presentation. These forward-looking statements include estimates, goals, and predictions about the future based on our current information and educated assumptions.

值得注意的是，我們在簡報的第 2 頁提供了前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 定義供您參考。這些前瞻性陳述包括基於我們目前資訊和有根據的假設對未來的估計、目標和預測。

These come with risks and uncertainties, and with that there is always the possibility that the outcomes may differ from the expectations. That being said, forward-looking statements aren't guarantees, and factors like economic conditions, competition, fuel prices, and regulatory changes could affect actual results.

這些都伴隨著風險和不確定性，結果總是有可能與預期不同。話雖如此，前瞻性聲明並不能保證，經濟狀況、競爭、燃料價格和監管變化等因素可能會影響實際結果。

It is now my pleasure to turn over the call to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tracy Robinson.

現在我很高興將電話轉給加拿大國家鐵路公司總裁兼執行長 Tracey Robinson。

Thanks, Stacy, and thanks everyone for joining us on today's call. Now, as you no doubt on yesterday's press release, Janet Drysdale, who most of you know, is stepping in as Interim Chief Commercial Officer following Remi's departure.

謝謝，史黛西，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。現在，正如大家在昨天的新聞稿中毫無疑問的那樣，大多數人所熟知的珍妮特·德萊斯代爾 (Janet Drysdale) 將在雷米 (Remi) 離職後擔任臨時首席商務官。

Now I want to welcome Janet to the role. She knows our company well. She knows our markets. She's a long standing leader within our company and our sector, and Janet is here in the room with us today, and she'll take us through the commercial performance and the market trends in just a few minutes.

現在我歡迎珍妮特擔任這個職位。她對我們公司很了解。她了解我們的市場。她是我們公司和我們部門的長期領導者，珍妮特今天也和我們在一起，她將在幾分鐘內向我們介紹商業表現和市場趨勢。

So we're going to start with the quarter today and then we'll move on to the outlook for the remainder of the year. We delivered 2% adjusted EPS growth this quarter on flat year-over-year car loads, and a 1% reduction in RTMs.

因此，我們將從今天的季度開始，然後繼續討論今年剩餘時間的展望。本季度，我們的調整後每股收益成長了 2%，車輛負載量與去年同期持平，而 RTM 減少了 1%。

Now we knew heading into the year that Q2 would be a tough compare from the volume perspective, but it held up well against a positive Q2 last year when we had some pull forward demand ahead of a potential labor disruption. Bulk volumes were very strong through the quarter. Now this is great business, and it reflects our advantage network for the ag sector and the strength of our share.

現在我們知道，進入今年，從銷售角度來看，第二季度將是一個艱難的比較，但與去年積極的第二季度相比，情況良好，當時我們在潛在的勞動力中斷之前有一些提前需求。本季的散貨量非常強勁。這是一項偉大的業務，它反映了我們在農業領域的優勢網絡和我們的市場份額實力。

In the merchandise and in the model segments, we started in Q2 to see the impact of tariffs and weaker industrial economy. Now this shift in traffic mix with less merchandise created a drag on our revenues and margins despite continued same store pricing ahead of inflation. We'll get into the details on the volumes and the revenues with Janet in just a few minutes.

在商品和模型領域，我們從第二季開始看到關稅和工業經濟疲軟的影響。現在，儘管同店定價繼續高於通貨膨脹率，但客流量結構的變化和商品的減少對我們的收入和利潤造成了拖累。幾分鐘後，我們將與珍妮特討論銷售和收入的詳細資訊。

Our network is running very well. Our operating metrics, velocity, dwell, customer service, they're all in the right spot, and it's important that as our volumes are mixed shift that we respond quickly. And this team has proactively and progressively adjusted the operating plan and resources throughout the quarter, maintaining good tension between cost and network fluidity and performance.

我們的網路運作得很好。我們的營運指標、速度、停留時間、客戶服務都處於正確的位置，重要的是，隨著我們業務量的混合變化，我們要快速做出反應。並且團隊在整個季度中積極主動地調整了營運計劃和資源，在成本和網路流動性及性能之間保持了良好的張力。

And this helped us drive 50 basis points year-over-year improvement in margin, and 150 basis points betterment over Q1. Now, everyone across this organization is focused on containing costs as volumes adjust. This team is aligned, we're focused, and we're disciplined.

這幫助我們實現了利潤率年增 50 個基點，比第一季提高 150 個基點。現在，該組織的每個人都致力於在產量調整的同時控製成本。這支團隊團結一致、目標明確、紀律嚴明。

Now as we look forward to the next six months, we need to consider the current environment. A few months ago, the trade deal seemed imminent, and instead, there is an increasing uncertainty around the tariffs and trade environment, particularly in Canada, and some concerns over weakening macroeconomic environment, and we are seeing impacts in our forest products, metals, and our autos business.

現在，當我們展望未來六個月時，我們需要考慮當前的環境。幾個月前，貿易協定似乎即將達成，但相反，關稅和貿易環境的不確定性日益增加，尤其是在加拿大，人們對宏觀經濟環境疲軟也感到擔憂，我們的林產品、金屬和汽車業務都受到了影響。

And there is a question of what happens to the international volume to the last half as the tariff discussions continue. And we know that these questions will be resolved with time, and we will have greater certainty on the traditional and perhaps some newly emerging trade flows.

還有一個問題是，隨著關稅談判的持續，後半部的國際貿易量將會發生什麼變化。我們知道，這些問題將隨著時間的推移而解決，我們將對傳統和一些新興的貿易流動有更大的確定性。

Now, in the immediate term, the uncertainty makes calling the merchandise and intermodal volumes for the second half more of a challenge. The range of outcomes is broader, and it seems more likely that the current softness in certain sectors will persist in the near term.

現在，從短期來看，不確定性使得預測下半年的貨物和聯運量更具挑戰性。結果的範圍更為廣泛，某些行業目前的疲軟態勢似乎更有可能在短期內持續下去。

And we're watching all of this closely as it unfolds across our business lines, and we're controlling what we can control in an uncertain environment. And here's what we're doing.

我們正密切關注這一切在我們業務線上的進展，並在不確定的環境中控制我們能夠控制的事情。這就是我們正在做的事情。

We have efforts underway with our customers to further leverage the benefits of the strength in our diversified book. We have a very strong bulk in energy franchises. For example, these businesses will continue to grow. And there's work underway in Canada to develop better access to global markets, particularly in the energy space, and these may provide further opportunity.

我們正在與客戶一起努力，進一步利用我們多元化資產的優勢。我們在能源特許經營領域擁有非常強大的實力。例如，這些業務將繼續成長。加拿大正在努力開拓更好的全球市場准入，特別是在能源領域，這可能會提供進一步的機會。

In the areas that are impacted by tariffs, we're working closely with our customers on getting them to other markets. So in metals, for example, following the escalation of US tariffs on Canadian made steel and aluminum, which rose to 50% in June, we worked with our customers on intra-Canada and intra-US moves, and we were able to mitigate some of the loss of the southbound flows. Now we believe there is more opportunity here.

在受關稅影響的地區，我們正在與客戶密切合作，將他們帶入其他市場。以金屬為例，隨著美國對加拿大產鋼鐵和鋁的關稅升級（6 月升至 50%），我們與客戶就加拿大境內和美國境內的運輸進行了合作，並能夠減輕南向流動的部分損失。現在我們相信這裡有更多的機會。

We are doubling down on leveraging our service performance to increase volumes. We've had some wins, for example, in domestic intermodal, based on our ability to deliver for our customers, and we're managing our cost structure in response to shifts in both mix and volumes to protect our margins, and we made good progress on this in Q2, and there's more to come. We are all over that.

我們正在加倍努力利用我們的服務效能來增加產量。例如，在國內聯運方面，我們憑藉為客戶提供服務的能力取得了一些勝利，並且我們正在管理成本結構，以應對產品組合和數量的變化，從而保護我們的利潤率，我們在第二季度在這方面取得了良好的進展，未來還會有更多進展。我們都已經了解這一點了。

And we delivered a solid Q2 in this environment, but there is ongoing uncertainty as we look forward. As a result, we believe it is appropriate to soften our expectations for the remainder of the year, and we're adjusting to low single digit RTM growth.

在這種環境下，我們第二季取得了穩健的業績，但展望未來，仍存在不確定性。因此，我們認為降低對今年剩餘時間的預期是適當的，我們正在適應低個位數的 RTM 成長。

Now make no mistake about it, this is a great network. It has tri-coastal access. It serves the resource and energy-rich regions of Northern Canada. It uniquely bypasses Chicago congestion and has a well-diversified book of business.

現在毫無疑問，這是一個偉大的網路。它可通往三岸。它為加拿大北部資源和能源豐富的地區提供服務。它以獨特的方式避開了芝加哥的交通擁堵，並擁有多元化的業務。

And remember, we also originate over 85% of our book, and originate and terminate more than 65% of our business, more than any Class I, and this means we control more of the service at origin and destination and have strong partnerships with our customers that we can build on.

請記住，我們還發起了超過 85% 的訂單，發起和終止了超過 65% 的業務，比任何一級貨運公司都要多，這意味著我們在始發地和目的地控制更多的服務，並與我們的客戶建立了牢固的合作夥伴關係。

I'm going to turn it over to the team to get more -- to give you more detail on the quarter, and how we're thinking about the balance of the year. Derek, I'll turn it to you first.

我將把它交給團隊以獲取更多信息——為您提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息，以及我們如何考慮今年的平衡。德瑞克，我先把它轉給你。

Yeah, thanks, Tracy, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll be speaking in slide 6. I'm pleased with our operational performance. The operating team has maintained a very fluid and very healthy network throughout the second quarter.

是的，謝謝，特蕾西，大家下午好。我將在幻燈片 6 上發言。我對我們的營運表現感到滿意。在整個第二季度，營運團隊一直保持著非常流暢和健康的網路。

Now, I said on our Q1 call that we would take decisive action to tightly manage cost as demand evolves, and that's just what we've done this quarter. We are acting quickly and decisively, and will continue to do so as we balance operational and service requirements in this dynamic environment.

現在，我在第一季電話會議上表示，隨著需求的變化，我們將採取果斷行動嚴格管理成本，而這正是我們本季所做的。我們正在迅速果斷地採取行動，並將繼續這樣做，以平衡這個動態環境中的營運和服務需求。

In the second quarter, we cut 8% of our mainline manifest train starts versus last year in response to a 7% decrease in merchandise workload. Bulk workloads were up 9%, and we handle that with only 4% more bulk train starts.

在第二季度，由於貨物處理量減少了 7%，我們的主要貨運列車發車數量與去年相比減少了 8%。散裝貨物的工作量增加了 9%，而我們只用增加 4% 的散裝列車啟動量來處理。

At the end of the quarter, we have 560 train and engine employees on furlough across the network. We are continuing to actively manage resourcing as we keep an eye on volumes. This is all about striking the right balance between service, cost, and network health.

截至本季末，我們全網共有 560 名火車和機車員工休假。我們將繼續積極管理資源，同時密切關注產量。這一切都是為了在服務、成本和網路健康之間取得適當的平衡。

We know speed has a cost, but we also know that we can keep this railroad fluid, with car velocity above 200 miles per day. Our focus is on pulling cost levers while still maintaining solid operating metrics that ensure network fluidity.

我們知道速度是有代價的，但我們也知道我們可以保持這條鐵路的暢通，車速可以達到每天 200 英里以上。我們的重點是控製成本，同時保持穩定的營運指標以確保網路的流暢性。

With that in mind, car velocity was 213 miles per day, driven in large part by a faster network train speed that increased 3% over last year. Our yard stayed fluid, and through dwell improved 1%. Lastly, we continue to deliver for our customers with a local service commitment performance of 95%. So all in all, really solid operating metrics were delivered.

考慮到這一點，汽車速度為每天 213 英里，這在很大程度上是由於網路列車速度加快，比去年增加了 3%。我們的院子保持流暢，並且停留時間提高了 1%。最後，我們持續為客戶提供95%的本地服務承諾。總而言之，我們獲得了真正可靠的營運指標。

Wildfire season started early this year, but fortunately so far, we have had very little impact on the main line. There have, however, been several branch line outages. Our firefighting trains and tank cars are deployed and staged across the Western region to protect the network and to support local communities where we can. I can proudly say they have been very effective.

今年的野火季節來得早，但幸運的是，到目前為止，對主線的影響很小。然而，已經發生過幾條支線中斷的情況。我們的消防列車和油罐車已部署並運行至整個西部地區，以保護管道網路並盡可能支援當地社區。我可以自豪地說，它們非常有效。

Now coming into July, we've had a couple of incidents in the south, which has put pressure on velocity in that region. Meanwhile, the west and the east continue to perform well. Overall, month to day car velocity is nearly 210 car miles a day, and we expect to build on that for the rest of the quarter.

現在已進入 7 月，南部地區發生了幾起事故，給該地區的速度帶來了壓力。與此同時，西部和東部繼續表現良好。總體而言，月均汽車行駛速度接近每天 210 英里，我們預計本季剩餘時間內汽車行駛速度將保持在這一水平。

We've been doing what we have to do in this dynamic operating environment. We will continue to act with urgency to keep the tension tight between cost and the operating and service metrics. I know I can count on the team to pull on every lever and deliver the outcome that is required.

在這個動態的營運環境中，我們一直在做我們必須做的事情。我們將繼續採取緊急行動，維持成本與營運和服務指標之間的平衡。我知道我可以依靠團隊發揮一切力量並取得所需的成果。

I'll now pass it over to Pat.

我現在將其交給帕特。

Thanks, Derek. Let's start with safety. This quarter, I want to call out our injury ratio, which improved by 16%. This is not by chance. It is a direct result of our teams proactively engaging in the field, identifying at risk behaviors before they turn into incidents. Our conviction is simple. Everyone goes home safely every day, and that standard is not negotiable.

謝謝，德里克。讓我們從安全開始。本季度，我想指出的是，我們的受傷率提高了 16%。這並不是偶然的。這是我們的團隊積極參與現場工作，在危險行為演變成事故之前就發現它們的直接結果。我們的信念很簡單。每個人每天都能平安回家，這個標準是沒有商量的餘地的。

On the resourcing side, we're tightly managing our cost base, staying lean and nimble. Our T&E labor productivity improved 11% year-over-year, mostly through targeted furloughs that we acted on early to realign to demand.

在資源方面，我們嚴格管理成本基礎，保持精簡和靈活。我們的差旅與費用勞動生產力年增了 11%，這主要是透過我們及早採取有針對性的休假措施來適應需求。

We're hiring only for the hardest to fill locations, and we are timing every training class in close partnership with what the commercial team is seeing in terms of the volume outlook. On the assets side, we're also reacting quickly, preserving optionality and protecting margins as volumes shift.

我們只在最難填補的職位上招聘，我們會根據商業團隊對數量前景的預測，密切配合安排每一次培訓課程。在資產方面，我們也做出了快速反應，在交易量變化時保留了選擇性並保護了利潤率。

We ended the quarter with 8,000 system cars in storage, twice as many as at the end of the first quarter, and 200 high horsepower locomotives, or roughly 12% of the fleet. These moves combined with careful train planning shielded us from the unnecessary expenses and lifted both our gross ton miles for horsepower and our fuel efficiency by 1%.

截至本季末，我們庫存有 8,000 輛系統車，是第一季末的兩倍，還有 200 輛大馬力機車，約佔車隊總數的 12%。這些措施與周密的列車規劃相結合，使我們避免了不必要的開支，並將我們的馬力總噸英里數和燃油效率提高了 1%。

Sticking with locomotives, we're seeing real traction on our reliability, which means we're doing more with less. Locomotive availability hit 92.5%, with failures down 3% year-over-year, driven by rooting out systemic failures and enhancing our predictive maintenance capabilities. The result, an 8% reduction in locomotive unit costs year-over-year. Now that's control and efficiency delivery -- delivered.

堅持使用機車，我們看到了可靠性的真正提升，這意味著我們可以用更少的資源做更多的事情。機車可用率達到 92.5%，故障率年減 3%，這得益於系統性故障的根除和預測性維護能力的增強。結果是，機車單位成本較去年同期下降了 8%。現在，這就是控制和效率交付——交付。

In engineering, our lowest overtime in a decade indicates we're executing the plan and not playing catch up. Tie gains are 7% more productive, with 5% lower unit cost. Work block delays are down across the network.

在工程領域，我們的加班時間達到了十年來最低水平，這表明我們正在執行計劃，而不是在追趕。領帶的生產效率提高了 7%，而單位成本降低了 5%。整個網路的工作區塊延遲均已降低。

By moving more work in-house we're gaining greater COG control and driving efficiency, delivering more with the resources we have. This shift is helping us to stay on schedule, improve quality, and manage our costs.

透過將更多的工作轉移到內部，我們可以獲得更大的 COG 控制並提高效率，並利用現有的資源提供更多服務。這種轉變有助於我們按計劃進行、提高品質並控製成本。

As we look to the second half of the year, we're maintaining a proactive approach and taking decisive action when and where necessary. Early moves on safety, cost, and asset management means we're set up to respond quickly, safeguard the bottom line, and capitalize on opportunity as markets rebound. The railroad is running very well, and we're going to keep it that way, no matter how markets evolve.

展望下半年，我們將繼續採取積極主動的態度，並在必要時採取果斷行動。在安全、成本和資產管理方面採取的早期行動意味著我們能夠快速做出反應、保障底線並在市場反彈時抓住機會。鐵路運作良好，無論市場如何發展，我們都將保持這種狀態。

With that, I'll pass it on to Janet.

說完，我會把它傳給珍妮特。

Thanks, Pat. Good afternoon, everyone. It's great to be here. I really appreciate the opportunity to step in as Interim Chief Commercial Officer, but today I'm going to do my best to give you some color on the quarter, as well as what we're seeing at this point in terms of the outlook for the second half.

謝謝，帕特。大家下午好。很高興來到這裡。我非常感謝有機會擔任臨時首席商務官，但今天我將盡我所能為您提供一些有關本季度的情況，以及我們目前對下半年前景的看法。

As you've just heard, the railroad is operating very well, and that translates directly into solid service for our customers. That's foundational in terms of our focus on driving growth, no matter what type of external challenges we face.

正如您剛才聽到的，鐵路運營得很好，這直接轉化為我們為客戶提供的優質服務。無論我們面臨何種外部挑戰，這都是我們專注於推動成長的基礎。

Revenues in the quarter fell 1% on 1% lower RTMs and flat car loads, reflecting weaker market fundamentals amid ongoing US trade and tariff actions and uncertainty. We also had an unfavorable mix impact, more details on that in a minute.

由於 RTM 下降 1% 且貨車裝載量持平，本季收入下降 1%，反映出在美國貿易和關稅行動持續以及不確定性的影響下市場基本面走弱。我們也受到了不利的混合影響，稍後將詳細介紹。

Lower applicable OHD prices versus last year were a headwind of about 2%. In addition, the Canadian carbon tax surcharge was repealed on April 1, which impacted revenues by about $70 million in a quarter. This is a pass through to customers, and so it will be a headwind of roughly the same amount for the next three quarters.

與去年相比，OHD 適用價格較低，造成約 2% 的不利影響。此外，加拿大碳稅附加費於4月1日被廢除，這導致該季度的收入減少了約7,000萬美元。這是對客戶的一種轉嫁，因此在接下來的三個季度中，這將是大致相同數量的阻力。

Foreign exchange was a slight tailwind to revenue of less than 1%. Same store pricing continues to come in ahead of our rail cost inflation, but revenue for RTM was flat as a result of mix year-over-year we move less merchandise business, with the key mix impact being driven by forest products, refined petroleum products, chemicals and metals.

外匯對收入的影響略有減緩，但幅度不到 1%。同店定價繼續領先鐵路成本通膨，但 RTM 的收入持平，因為與去年同期相比，我們的商品業務組合減少，而主要商品組合影響來自林產品、精煉石油產品、化學品和金屬。

So I'm going to provide you a few key highlights on the quarter before moving to the outlook. You have the numbers in front of you, so I'm not going to repeat them. Petroleum and chemicals were impacted by lower volumes of refined products due to extended turnarounds at about 50% of the Western Canadian refineries that we serve, which is really unprecedented to have that many refineries down at the same time.

因此，在討論展望之前，我將向您介紹本季的一些關鍵亮點。這些數字就在你們面前，所以我就不再重複了。由於我們所服務的加拿大西部煉油廠中約有 50% 的煉油廠的檢修時間延長，石油和化學品的成品油產量下降，如此多的煉油廠同時停工的情況實屬罕見。

Now, we did partly backfill some of those moves from the US and Eastern Canada, but those were much shorter haul. We had lower shipments for renewables, mainly the result of policy changes in the US and Canada. Those policy changes drove producers to source from inside Canada versus Iowa and Louisiana, so that's also part of the mix issue.

現在，我們確實部分填補了來自美國和加拿大東部的一些運輸任務，但這些運輸距離要短得多。我們的再生能源出貨量下降，主要是由於美國和加拿大的政策變化。這些政策變化促使生產商從加拿大境內而不是愛荷華州和路易斯安那州採購，所以這也是混合問題的一部分。

Within metals and minerals, iron ore shipments were impacted by weaker demand fundamentals, including a mine closure on our line. We also saw lower sand volumes due to a bridge fire that was on the branch line that Derek referred to. That paused shipments early in the quarter, and as we exited the quarter, lower gas prices drove less drilling activity.

在金屬和礦物領域，鐵礦石運輸受到需求基本面疲軟的影響，包括我們生產線上的礦場關閉。我們也看到，由於德瑞克提到的支線上的一座橋樑發生火災，沙量也減少了。這導致本季初的出貨暫停，而當我們退出本季時，較低的天然氣價格導致鑽井活動減少。

Steel and aluminum shipments came under pressure from tariffs, but as Tracy mentioned, we did have some compensating moves intra-Canada and intra-US. Challenging market fundamentals are continuing to unfavorably impact forest products volumes.

鋼鐵和鋁的運輸受到關稅的壓力，但正如 Tracy 所提到的，我們在加拿大國內和美國國內確實採取了一些補償措施。嚴峻的市場基本面持續對林產品產量產生不利影響。

Turning to coal, Canadian (inaudible) coal exports were up due to the Quintette mine restart last fall, while US coal volumes were impacted by back to back long wall moves at two of our Illinois Basin thermal coal mines.

談到煤炭，由於去年秋天 Quintette 礦場重啟，加拿大（聽不清楚）煤炭出口量增加，而美國煤炭產量則受到我們伊利諾伊盆地兩座熱煤礦連續長壁移動的影響。

Now the real bright spot for the quarter was grain and fertilizers with a 12% increase in revenues. We saw stronger grain shipments on both sides of the border, with grain volumes up 6% in Canada, and US volumes up almost 30%. That was due to the higher US corn exports, new ethanol projects, as well as the Iowa Northern acquisition related volumes.

本季真正的亮點是穀物和化肥，營收成長了 12%。我們看到邊境兩側的糧食運輸量都有所增加，其中加拿大的糧食運輸量增加了 6%，美國的糧食運輸量增加了近 30%。這是由於美國玉米出口量增加、新的乙醇項目以及愛荷華北部收購相關產量增加。

Potash RTMs were up almost 30%, driven by strong exports to the port of Saint John. Now in terms of intermodal, we expected increased blank salines, and that's what we got. And primarily impacted units through Vancouver, which were down 4%.

受聖約翰港出口強勁推動，鉀肥 RTM 價格上漲近 30%。現在就多式聯運而言，我們預期空白鹽水會增加，而這也正是我們所得到的。主要受影響的是溫哥華的單位，下降了 4%。

Prince Rupert units, however, rose 14%, led by New Gemini volumes. In domestic, wholesale volumes were up, particularly in the Transcon and Eastern Canada lanes.

不過，魯珀特王子港的船舶數量上漲了 14%，其中以新雙子座號的船隻數量最多。在國內，批發量有所上升，尤其是在 Transcon 和加拿大東部航線。

In automotive, both finished vehicles and parts were below last year's levels, and we certainly saw some shift in flows with auto manufacturers moving around production. Mexico to Canada was up, and as you'd expect, volumes between Canada and the US were down.

在汽車領域，整車和零件都低於去年的水平，而且我們確實看到隨著汽車製造商轉移生產，流量發生了一些變化。墨西哥到加拿大的貨運量有所增加，而正如您所預料的，加拿大和美國之間的貨運量有所下降。

Turning now to the outlook, the on again off again tariffs are forcing customers to rethink their supply chain. Based on what we saw in Q2 and what we're hearing from customers, we have reduced our volume outlook for the back half of the year, and consequently updated our full year volume assumption to low single digit RTM growth versus 2024.

現在回顧前景，重複的關稅迫使客戶重新考慮他們的供應鏈。根據我們在第二季度看到的情況以及從客戶那裡聽到的信息，我們下調了今年下半年的銷售預期，並因此將全年銷售假設更新為與 2024 年相比的低個位數 RTM 增長。

I would say our perspective has changed most notably for international intermodal and forest products. In intermodal, we still expect to see solid year-over-year growth in the back half of the year as we lap last year's labor-related disruptions, but our view has been tempered by the tariff situation and the recent pull forward of inventory.

我想說，我們對國際多式聯運和林業產品的看法發生了最顯著的變化。在多式聯運方面，我們仍然預計今年下半年將出現穩健的同比增長，因為我們克服了去年與勞動力相關的中斷，但我們的觀點受到關稅情況和近期庫存提前的影響。

Within merchandise, we see continued risk exposure in lumber, with higher softwood duties for Canadian imports coming in August, the lingering threat of the US Section 232 lumber investigation, as well as the slower than expected housing recovery. Lumber mill curtailments also have a direct impact on other forest products including wood pulp.

在商品方面，我們看到木材的風險敞口持續存在，8月份加拿大進口軟木關稅將上調，美國第232條款木材調查的威脅依然存在，而且住房市場復甦速度慢於預期。木材廠的減產也對包括木漿在內的其他林產品產生直接影響。

In petroleum and chemicals, we'll have some continued pressure from turnarounds within the refined segment into Q3, but those are expected to be resolved by Q4, and we're expecting a ramp up in volumes into the fuel distribution facility in Toronto with Phase 2 coming online.

在石油和化學領域，我們將在第三季度面臨來自精煉部門轉變的持續壓力，但這些問題預計將在第四季度得到解決，並且我們預計隨著第二階段的上線，多倫多燃料配送設施的產量將會增加。

And for those of you that were able to join us in Prince Rupert in June, you'll recall, we also expect continued growth in export propane through the AltaGas facility. Overall, we're projecting growth in P&C for the balance of the year.

對於那些六月能夠加入我們在魯珀特王子港的人來說，你們會記得，我們也預計透過 AltaGas 工廠出口的丙烷將繼續成長。整體而言，我們預計今年餘下的財險和意外險業務將實現成長。

For other trade sensitive commodities, metals, minerals, automotive, we're navigating ongoing market shifts by staying close to our customers and adapting to changing supply chains. In bulk, it's still a little bit too early to call the Canadian grain crop size, and we probably need a bit of help from mother nature.

對於其他貿易敏感商品、金屬、礦物、汽車，我們透過貼近客戶並適應不斷變化的供應鏈來應對持續的市場變化。從整體來看，現在判斷加拿大糧食產量還為時過早，我們可能需要大自然的幫助。

Nonetheless, we expect to see the normal seasonal uptick as we get into September. I do want to note that with just two weeks left in the current year crop, we have already set an all-time record for the most bulk grain and processed grain products shipped ever in Western Canada.

儘管如此，我們預計進入九月將出現正常的季節性上漲。我想指出的是，今年的收成僅剩兩週，我們已經創下了加拿大西部有史以來散裝穀物和加工穀物產品運輸量最多的紀錄。

We're forecasting a smaller domestic potash fill program in Q3, followed by higher export shipments to Saint John in Q4, as we lap last year's terminal outage. Coal's going to continue to benefit from the new production in Northeast BC.

我們預測，第三季國內鉀肥補充計畫規模將縮小，隨著去年終端中斷的發生，第四季對聖約翰的出口量將會增加。煤炭將繼續受益於不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部的新產量。

So the broader market hasn't developed in our favor, but we're actively driving our CN growth initiatives and are committed to continuing to build our growth pipeline.

因此，大盤走勢並不利於我們，但我們正在積極推動 CN 成長計劃，並致力於繼續建立我們的成長管道。

Let me wrap up. The railroad is running exceptionally well, and we are delivering for our customers. We're controlling what we can, including the intensity with which we drive our growth agenda, especially our CN's specific growth opportunities.

讓我總結一下。鐵路運行狀況非常好，我們正在為客戶提供服務。我們正在控制我們能控制的事情，包括我們推動成長議程的強度，特別是我們 CN 的特定成長機會。

Ghislain, over to you.

吉斯蘭，交給你了。

(spoken in foreign language) Turning to slide 13, for the quarter, we reported EPS of $1.87, up 2% versus last year's adjusted EPS of $1.84. Revenues were down 1% year-over-year on 1% lower RTMs. The operating team took swift action to adjust the train package to our evolving volume mix, which allowed us to deliver an operating ratio of 61.7%, a 50 basis point improvement versus last year's adjusted operating ratio of 62.2%.

（外語）翻到第13張投影片，本季度，我們報告的每股盈餘為1.87美元，較去年調整後的每股盈餘1.84美元成長2%。營收年減1%，因為RTM下降了1%。營運團隊迅速採取行動，根據我們不斷變化的運量組合調整列車套餐，這使我們的營運率達到 61.7%，比去年調整後的營運率 62.2% 提高了 50 個基點。

Moving to slide 14, let me break down the earnings drivers for the quarter. Volumes were lower due to macro and tariff overhang. We also had unfavorable mix shift and a fuel price headwind of $0.04.

轉到第 14 張投影片，讓我來分析本季的獲利驅動因素。由於宏觀因素和關稅過剩，交易量有所下降。我們還遇到了不利的組合變化和 0.04 美元的燃油價格逆風。

On the plus side, we're very pleased with our solid cost stakeout and same store pricing above real inflation. Finally, we had a $0.02 tailwind of FX year-over-year. However, the average FX was $0.72 in Q2 versus the $0.70 assumed in our plan, so a headwind of $0.02. I will remind everyone that every penny of appreciation of the Canadian dollar to the US dollar represents a headwind of $0.05 of EPS on an annualized basis.

從好的方面來看，我們對穩固的成本控制和高於實際通膨率的同店定價感到非常滿意。最後，我們的外匯收入與去年同期相比成長了 0.02 美元。然而，第二季的平均匯率為0.72加元，而我們計畫中假設的匯率為0.70加元，因此逆風為0.02加元。我要提醒大家，加幣兌美元每升值一分錢，就代表年化每股收益下降0.05加幣。

On slide 15, let me provide you with more details on some of the operating expense categories on the quarter, which I'll speak to on an exchange adjusted basis. Labor was essentially flat versus last year, with general wage increases, mostly offset by lower average headcount resulting in increased productivity.

在第 15 張幻燈片上，讓我向您提供本季度部分運營費用類別的更多詳細信息，我將根據交易所調整後的數據進行討論。勞動力與去年相比基本持平，整體工資有所增加，但大部分被平均員工人數減少所抵消，從而導致生產力提高。

Purchase services and material was also flat versus last year, with higher maintenance and repair costs offset by lower outsource services. Fuel expense decreased 25% versus the same period last year due to the elimination of the carbon tax in Canada and the 23% decrease in price per gallon.

採購服務和材料也與去年同期持平，維護和維修成本的增加被外包服務的減少所抵消。由於加拿大取消了碳稅，每加侖價格下降了23%，燃料費用與去年同期相比下降了25%。

Other costs were up about $40 million or 25% versus last year, mostly driven by higher incident costs and higher software and support costs as we continue to transition our legacy technology infrastructure to the cloud.

其他成本與去年相比增加了約 4000 萬美元，即 25%，主要是由於我們繼續將傳統技術基礎設施向雲端轉移，導致事故成本以及軟體和支援成本增加。

We generated over $1.5 billion of free cash flow through the end of June, up 5% versus the same period last year, mostly driven by lower capital expenditures. Leverage at the end of Q2 was 2.5 times, and we will continue to execute on our current share buyback program which runs through February 3 of next year. We continue to maintain a 2.5 times adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA target.

截至 6 月底，我們產生了超過 15 億美元的自由現金流，比去年同期成長 5%，主要原因是資本支出減少。第二季末的槓桿率為 2.5 倍，我們將繼續執行目前的股票回購計劃，該計劃將持續到明年 2 月 3 日。我們持續維持調整後債務與調整後 EBITDA 比 2.5 倍的目標。

Moving to slide 16, let me provide some visibility to 2025. The current macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly volatile with ever changing tariff rates and policies. The uncertainty and the direct tariff impact on our customers is putting pressure on volumes.

轉到第 16 張投影片，讓我來展望一下 2025 年。當前宏觀經濟環境日益動盪，關稅稅率和政策不斷變化。不確定性和關稅對我們客戶的直接影響給銷售帶來了壓力。

Even as we deliver on our CN specific growth initiatives, we are revising our volume growth assumption in terms of RTMs to now be in the low single digit range. We continue to assume WTI to be in the range of USD60 to USD70 per barrel, and now assume foreign exchange for the balance of year to be between $0.75 versus approximately $0.70 previously. Our effective tax rate continues to be in the range of 24% to 25%.

即使我們實現了針對 CN 的特定成長計劃，我們也正在修改 RTM 方面的銷售成長假設，目前該假設處於較低的個位數範圍內。我們繼續假設 WTI 價格在每桶 60 至 70 美元之間，現在假設今年剩餘時間的外匯匯率在 0.75 美元之間，而之前約為 0.70 美元。我們的有效稅率持續維持在24%至25%之間。

With the revised volume assumption and corresponding mixed impact, as well as a higher Canadian dollar assumption for the balance of year, we are revising our guidance to mid to high single digit EPS growth in 2025.

根據修訂後的交易量假設和相應的混合影響，以及今年餘額中更高的加元假設，我們將 2025 年每股收益預期修改為中高個位數增長。

We're also looking at reducing our CapEx envelope for the year by about $50 million, and we continue to look for opportunities to further tighten CapEx for this year and next year. At the same time, we are removing our 2024 to 2026 multi-year guidance, giving the short runway remaining.

我們也考慮將今年的資本支出減少約 5,000 萬美元，並將繼續尋找機會進一步縮減今年和明年的資本支出。同時，我們將取消 2024 年至 2026 年的多年期指導，因為剩下的只是短暫的跑道。

Tariff policies have had a meaningful impact on tariff -- on traffic volumes and mix. We are staying close to our customers and continue to manage our costs and resources tightly.

關稅政策對關稅、交通量和結構產生了重大影響。我們與客戶保持密切聯繫，並繼續嚴格管理我們的成本和資源。

In conclusion, let me reiterate a few points. The network continues to operate very well with strong operating and service metrics. We expect to have volume growth in the second half of the year as we left labor disruptions from last year.

最後，我想重申幾點。該網路持續運作良好，營運和服務指標強勁。由於擺脫了去年的勞工中斷，我們預計今年下半年的銷售將會成長。

We are tightly managing costs in this uncertain environment, controlling what we can control. We are pleased with our Q2 results and are well positioned to deliver on a revised guidance. Let me pass it back to Tracy.

在這個不確定的環境中，我們嚴格管理成本，控制我們所能控制的部分。我們對第二季的業績感到滿意，並已準備好實現修訂後的指引。讓我把它轉交給 Tracy。

Thanks, Ghislain. And Christa, we'll go to questions now.

謝謝，吉斯蘭。克里斯塔，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Cowen.

（操作員指示） Cherilyn Radbourne，TD Cowen。

Thanks very much and good afternoon. I wonder if you could comment on what progress has been made for covering US bound international intermodal traffic through Prince Rupert versus last year? And given that mergers seems to be the topic du jour, could you comment on whether you think two hypothetical transcontinental mergers would impact Prince Rupert's ability to attract that traffic in the future?

非常感謝，下午好。我想知道您是否可以評論一下與去年相比，透過魯珀特王子港前往美國的國際多式聯運運輸取得了哪些進展？鑑於合併似乎已成為當今的熱門話題，您能否評論一下，您是否認為兩次假設的跨大陸合併會影響魯珀特王子港未來吸引客流的能力？

Thanks, Cherilyn. Listen, I'm going to turn the first part of that question over to Janet. And then Janet, I'll take the second half.

謝謝，Cherilyn。聽著，我要把這個問題的第一部分交給珍妮特。然後是珍妮特，我將負責下半部分。

Yeah. So Cherilyn, I would just remind everyone that in terms of overseas intermodal via Canada to the US, that actually represents less than 5% of our total revenues. I would also say that when you look at our business from the West Coast, it's really destined to mainly Chicago, Memphis and Detroit on CN. So it's not being interchanged further. So I think those are important mitigating considerations.

是的。所以 Cherilyn，我只想提醒大家，就經加拿大到美國的海外聯運而言，這實際上只占我們總收入的不到 5%。我還想說，當你從西海岸來看我們的業務時，它實際上主要銷往加拿大國家鐵路公司的芝加哥、孟菲斯和底特律。因此，不會再進行進一步的交換。所以我認為這些都是重要的緩解考量。

In the context of how we're doing and getting that US traffic back, I think we've seen good progress at Prince Rupert, a little bit tougher at Vancouver. And of course, we have this stopwatch clicking around the tariff deadline of the Chinese tariffs in August 12.

就我們的工作進展以及恢復美國交通而言，我認為我們在魯珀特王子港取得了良好的進展，但在溫哥華則稍微困難一些。當然，我們的秒錶正在 8 月 12 日中國關稅截止日期附近滴答作響。

And so there is some interest, I would say, of the overseas companies to make sure that they can get their products landed on US soil before that deadline. So it's been a bit tougher, I would say, on the Vancouver side. And the merger question, I'll hand it over to you, Tracy.

因此我想說，海外公司有興趣確保他們的產品能夠在截止日期之前進入美國市場。所以我想說，溫哥華方面的情況有點困難。至於合併問題，我將交給你，崔西。

Thanks, Janet. Let me just say this, Cherilyn, we recognize on the merger front that the chatter is out there, and we're obviously paying attention to that. It would make no sense for us to speculate on the potential of mergers or even what other Class I intentions are.

謝謝，珍妮特。我只想說，Cherilyn，我們認識到在合併方面存在著討論，我們顯然正在關注這一點。我們猜測合併的可能性甚至其他 I 類意圖是沒有意義的。

But I'll say this, our view remains that there are similar benefits to be gained from commercial arrangements without the pretty disruptive effects of a major merger. And the hurdles to emerge it, they're not insignificant. The regulatory barriers are high and untested.

但我要說的是，我們仍然認為，商業安排可以獲得類似的好處，而不會產生重大合併所帶來的破壞性影響。而要實現這目標所面臨的障礙也並非微不足道。監管壁壘很高且未經檢驗。

But whether it is Rupert or other parts of our network, I mean, we would expect that any transaction would protect at least or enhance the competitive options that we would have, and we would certainly participate in that to the fullest extent.

但無論是魯伯特還是我們網路的其他部分，我的意思是，我們都希望任何交易至少能夠保護或增強我們的競爭選擇，而且我們肯定會最大限度地參與其中。

When it comes to our business and our network in that scenario, it's important to know, as I said in my comments, we've got a really strong origination network. Going more than 85% of our volume originates on our lines. And when it comes to destination, the majority of our freight moves more than 65% of it, in fact, from an origin on CN to a destination on CN.

當談到我們的業務和網絡時，重要的是要知道，正如我在評論中所說的那樣，我們擁有一個非常強大的發起網絡。我們的產量的 85% 以上都來自我們的生產線。說到目的地，事實上，我們的大部分貨物運輸量超過 65%，都是從加拿大國家鐵路的始發站運往加拿大國家鐵路的目的地。

So this makes our business pretty resilient. And as Janet said, in the case of Rupert, the Rupert advantage would persist. That volume goes largely to Chicago to the Midwest and to other points in our line. And so the Rupert Advantage would remain intact.

這使得我們的業務非常有彈性。正如珍妮特所說，就魯伯特而言，魯伯特的優勢將會持續存在。這些貨物主要運往芝加哥、中西部以及我們線路上的其他地點。因此，魯珀特優勢將保持不變。

So we're watching all this very closely. But I must say that our focus is on driving execution to our strategy on what we think is a pretty advantaged network. Thank you.

因此，我們正在密切關注這一切。但我必須說，我們的重點是推動我們認為非常有優勢的網路策略的執行。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

沃爾特‧斯普拉克林 (Walter Spracklin)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

And thanks very much all, good afternoon, everyone. So my question is on the company specific volume growth initiatives that you outlined at Investor Day in 2023. Obviously, they were quite significant. Now the reason for your guidance reduction you pointed to tariffs and trade.

非常感謝大家，大家午安。所以我的問題是關於您在 2023 年投資者日概述的公司具體銷售成長計劃。顯然，它們非常重要。現在，您指出降低指導價的原因是關稅和貿易。

However, you did make the change with -- in your executive rank. Just wondering, is there any -- has there been any challenges or any changes in your optimism around your company specific initiatives as you look out the next few years?

然而，您確實在管理層級上做出了改變。只是想知道，展望未來幾年，您對公司具體舉措的樂觀態度是否面臨任何挑戰或發生任何變化？

Not at all, Walter. I mean I would tell you that those CN specific initiatives were all based on the advantages of our network, whether it is the intermodal volumes using Rupert, Vancouver, Halifax and a stronger and stronger Montreal.

一點也不，沃特。我的意思是，我想告訴你，這些 CN 的具體舉措都是基於我們網絡的優勢，無論是使用魯珀特、溫哥華、哈利法克斯還是越來越強大的蒙特利爾的多式聯運量。

Whether it is the energy, how we're positioned in the Northern part of Alberta and British Columbia, Saskatchewan, on the energy front and the growing demand for that energy in global markets, whether it is the sand that is driven into that market in order to support the gas drilling, whether it is some of the canola crush that has increased the yields and the production of canola and that creates multiple moves into the crush facilities and then with the meal going offshore, whether it is some of what we're doing in the Southern part of our network, to integrate the Iowa Northern and to make sure that the crush facilities down there are as productive as they intend to be.

無論是能源，我們在阿爾伯塔省北部、不列顛哥倫比亞省和薩斯喀徹溫省的能源定位，還是全球市場對能源日益增長的需求，無論是為了支持天然氣鑽探而進入該市場的沙子，無論是部分油菜籽壓榨，還是油菜籽的產量增加，導致壓榨設施多次搬遷，然後將愛荷華州運往海外設施，無論是我們在海外設施的工作

So all of this remains intact. What's happening right now is the environment given the tariff situation is pretty uncertain and it's pretty volatile. And so we are seeing the direct impact in some lines, some sectors, some of our lines of business.

所以這一切都保持完好。目前的關稅環境相當不確定，而且相當不穩定。因此，我們看到一些產品線、一些領域、一些業務線受到了直接影響。

But the fundamentals of the growth given where our network is and what's happening remained intact. This is just going to be a timing issue. We know that the tariff deals will ultimately done or at least we believe that, that will be the case and that we'll see more of the normal kind of flows emerging, as we said, maybe even some new ones, certainly in Canada, there's lots of effort around kind of new trade flows. And we think that, that could be a great opportunity for us as well. So it's all intact, and we're ready.

但考慮到我們的網路現狀和發展情況，成長的基本面仍然完好無損。這只是一個時間問題。我們知道關稅協議最終會達成，或者至少我們相信會是這樣，而且我們將看到更多正常的貿易流動出現，正如我們所說的，甚至可能出現一些新的貿易流動，當然在加拿大，人們在新的貿易流動方面做出了很多努力。我們認為，這對我們來說也是一個很好的機會。所以一切都完好無損，我們已經準備好了。

Thank you Tracy.

謝謝你，特蕾西。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

Yeah, hey, thanks. Good afternoon. I wanted to ask about the RTM guide, particularly for the second half of the year. So it looks like 3Q is off to start just a little bit slower with volume down kind of mid to high single digits on the RTM side.

是的，嘿，謝謝。午安.我想詢問有關 RTM 指南的問題，特別是下半年的指南。因此看起來，第三季的開局略慢一些，RTM 方面的交易量下降幅度在中高個位數之間。

So I get the easier comps here, but what do we need to see change in the next few weeks to sort of get that moving in the right direction? And does it make sense to leave a little bit more cushion? And I guess as you think about the RTM outcome, relative to the EPS outcome if you're sort of towards the flatter end, is that what we're assuming sort of the mid-single-digit earnings growth could come in? Just want to get a sense of how to think about that RTM versus EPS relationship.

所以我在這裡得到了更簡單的比較，但是我們需要在接下來的幾週內看到什麼變化才能使其朝著正確的方向發展？留出更多緩衝空間是否有意義？我想，當您考慮 RTM 結果時，相對於 EPS 結果，如果您傾向於更平緩的結果，那麼我們是否假設中等個位數的盈利增長可能會出現？只是想了解如何看待 RTM 與 EPS 的關係。

Janet, why don't you take that one?

珍妮特，你為什麼不拿那個？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Chris. So I would say in the context of petroleum and chemicals in particular, we've got some of those lingering refinery outages. Now those are going to start to come back. So we do expect the volumes to accelerate as we move through the quarter.

是的。謝謝你的提問，克里斯。因此我想說，特別是在石油和化學品領域，我們的一些煉油廠仍處於停產狀態。現在這些將開始回歸。因此，我們確實預計，隨著本季的推進，交易量將會加速成長。

We've seen good strength in domestic intermodal. On the overseas side, a little bit of weakness but we will see this improve. And certainly, the grain crop is going to come in the September time frame. So yeah, we will see the volumes increase.

我們看到國內聯運業的強勁發展。海外方面，稍微有些疲軟，但我們會看到這種情況有所改善。當然，糧食作物將在九月收穫。是的，我們會看到交易量增加。

And I would add to that as well, if you think about -- if you transition that over to the earnings outlook, right, we're not standing still in the midst of changes in volumes and didn't mix as well. So we have a very kind of, as I called it, a progressive and proactive effort underway to make sure that our costs are adjusted as our volumes and our mix adjusts.

我還要補充一點，如果你考慮一下——如果你將其轉移到盈利前景，對的，我們並沒有在交易量變化的過程中停滯不前，也沒有混合在一起。因此，我們正在採取一種我稱之為漸進和積極主動的努力，以確保我們的成本隨著我們的數量和組合的調整而調整。

And we've had -- we've got great traction on that. A 50 basis points improvement in margins despite some of the headwinds in Q2, and we are intensifying that as we go. So that's an important part of this equation.

我們已經——我們在這方面取得了很大的進展。儘管第二季面臨一些不利因素，但利潤率仍提高了 50 個基點，我們正在不斷加大這一力度。這是這個等式的一個重要部分。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Yeah, hey, good afternoon. Maybe Tracy, if you can elaborate a little bit more on those proactive changes with mix? Because I think as I understand Janet's comments correctly, some of the forest products, refined products, renewables, like those things don't seem like they're going to reverse all that quickly.

是的，嘿，下午好。也許 Tracy，你能否更詳細地闡述一下混合的主動變化？因為我認為我正確理解了珍妮特的評論，一些林業產品、精煉產品、再生能源等似乎不會很快逆轉。

So how far along are you on this path? What are sort of the leverage you can pull? Is it all labor? Maybe you can elaborate a little bit more on that. Thank you.

那麼你在這條路上走了多遠？您可以利用哪些槓桿？全部都是勞動嗎？也許您可以對此進行更詳細的闡述。謝謝。

Yeah, I'll start on that, and then I'm going to turn it over to Pat to talk about the resourcing. But what happened in Q2 was, as you heard today, we had a great bulk program. Our bulk volumes were very, very strong. And that's a very good business. We love that business.

是的，我將從這個開始，然後我將把它交給帕特來討論資源問題。但正如您今天所聽到的，第二季的情況是，我們有一個很棒的批量計劃。我們的批量非常非常大。這是一門非常好的生意。我們熱愛這項事業。

And our network is built well for that business. Our share is continuing to increase, which is very good. That -- what we had -- what we saw in the offset is the reduction in forest products given where -- particularly in lumber whereas we saw the housing starts kind of continue to go down, there are some tariff actions that have been long-standing in lumber, but we're seeing that intensify as well.

我們的網路非常適合該業務。我們的份額正在持續增加，這是非常好的。我們看到的是森林產品的減少，特別是木材，而我們看到新屋開工率持續下降，木材方面長期存在一些關稅行動，但我們也看到這種行動正在加劇。

We saw the impact on other merchandise sections like the steel and the aluminum, some of the metals we did, we were able to mitigate some of that. In the case of those two sectors, that's likely to continue until we see some sort of an agreement.

我們看到了對鋼鐵和鋁等其他商品部分的影響，對於我們所做的某些金屬，我們能夠減輕其中的一些影響。就這兩個領域而言，這種情況可能會持續下去，直到我們達成某種協議。

It's difficult to know where that's going to go. We thought we were on a good track. We had 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. Instead of going down, those went up to 50%. That's when we saw the impact. I don't know where these tariffs are going to go, but we are anticipating that it's not going to be resolved immediately.

很難知道它將會走向何方。我們以為我們走在正確的道路上。我們對鋼鐵和鋁徵收25%的關稅。這些數字不但沒有下降，反而上漲了 50%。那時我們就看到了影響。我不知道這些關稅將會如何解決，但我們預計它不會立即解決。

And we think about what Janet said on more the energy sector, the petroleum and chemicals, those were more one-time issues. The tariff impact, we're not seeing it on those. That's going to come back to the third quarter, and we expect it to be strong in the fourth. So the mix equation is not going to be the same.

我們想想珍妮特對能源、石油和化學品領域所說的話，這些都是一次性問題。我們尚未看到關稅的影響。這將在第三季重現，我們預計第四季將會表現強勁。因此混合方程式不會相同。

It will mitigate as we move into the tail end of the year a little bit but we are going to have the weakness that we expect until there's some arrangements or deals made in the forest products and steel and aluminum, the relative weakness. So Pat, can I ask you to spend a few minutes on how we're responding to that.

隨著我們進入年底，這種勢頭會有所緩解，但我們仍將面臨預期的疲軟，直到林產品、鋼鐵和鋁方面達成一些安排或交易，即相對疲軟。那麼帕特，我可以請你花幾分鐘時間了解我們對此有何反應嗎？

So I would say first off, we've been very successful with the cost takeout initiatives, and we'll continue to manage resources very tightly. As I look at how we snap back, we are in a great position to meet a quick rebound in volumes.

所以我想說，首先，我們的成本削減計劃非常成功，我們將繼續嚴格管理資源。當我觀察我們如何反彈時，我發現我們處於一個非常有利的位置，可以迎接交易量的快速反彈。

We have 740 T&E employees furloughed. We have mechanical employees furloughed, and I've talked about the storage efforts of locomotive. The fleet is running better than it ever has, and we have locomotives store that we can quickly put back in service.

我們有 740 名 T&E 員工被迫休假。我們讓機械員工休假，而且我已經談到了機車的儲存工作。車隊的運作情況比以往更好，而且我們擁有可以快速恢復使用的機車倉庫。

So as I look at it as volume would ramp up, these folks that we recall, they only take a few weeks for refresher training versus someone that we would hire taking nine months to be fully trained. So we are well positioned to react if volumes turn down as we have. We're also positioned well to make a quickly rebound.

因此，我認為隨著工作量的增加，我們召回的這些人只需要幾週的時間進行再培訓，而我們僱用的人員則需要九個月的時間才能完成全面培訓。因此，如果交易量像我們現在這樣下降，我們就能很好地做出反應。我們也已做好準備迅速反彈。

And what you heard Derek say as well around how we've responded in train starts relative to volumes, which has been very impressive in what these guys have done. So I think our job is there's lots going on out there that we can't control. Our job is to manage what we can control and really pleased with the way this team is doing that.

您也聽到了德里克所說的，關於我們對火車啟動量的反應，這些人的所作所為令人印象深刻。所以我認為我們的工作是，有很多事情是我們無法控制的。我們的工作是管理我們能夠控制的事情，我們對這個團隊的做法感到非常滿意。

Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場的 Fadi Chamoun。

Thank you. I want to follow up on earlier question about the Transcon merger potentially here, and I have a question on CapEx. But is it fair to assume is an observer in this kind of framework that was kind of potentially looking at? And ultimately, you will look to defend your competitive access STB process if mergers were to be announced in the future. Is that kind of a fair framework to think about?

謝謝。我想跟進之前關於 Transcon 合併的問題，我有一個關於資本支出的問題。但是，我們可以假設，在這種框架中，觀察者有可能在觀察嗎？最終，如果將來宣布合併，您將尋求捍衛您的競爭准入 STB 流程。這是一個值得思考的公平框架嗎？

And really, my question is on -- I mean, volume have been relatively flat for the last five, six years and your growth CapEx envelope have remained relatively elevated and we've seen kind of degradation and cash conversion, obviously, as a result of that.

實際上，我的問題是——我的意思是，過去五、六年來，交易量一直相對平穩，而您的成長資本支出範圍仍然相對較高，顯然，由於這種原因，我們看到了某種程度的下降和現金轉換。

Is this kind of more longer-term thinking on your part? You're investing still at a very high level. Is there an opportunity here for tightening that spend? And ultimately, given just the growth environment, it was a little bit more muted.

您有這樣的更長遠的考慮嗎？您的投資仍然處於非常高的水平。這裡是否有機會縮減這方面的開支？最終，僅從成長環境來看，其表現就稍微溫和一些。

So Fadi, let me say this. You heard Ghis say that we're pulling $50 million out of a budget that was $100 million less than it was last year. So we are watching CapEx pretty closely. A couple of levers on that. Pat and his team are doing a lot of work to make sure that the maintenance CapEx that we put into the system -- well all CapEx that we put into this system is done at higher levels of productivity as every month goes on, and we're seeing the traction in that.

那麼，法迪，讓我這麼說吧。您聽到吉斯說，我們將從比去年少 1 億美元的預算中抽出 5,000 萬美元。因此，我們正在密切關注資本支出。這上面有幾個槓桿。帕特和他的團隊正在做大量工作，以確保我們投入到系統中的維護資本支出——好吧，我們投入到這個系統的所有資本支出都能夠隨著每個月的進行而以更高的生產力水平完成，而且我們看到了其中的吸引力。

So that's going to be a benefit for us. We'll continue to invest for growth as we have line of sight and certainty on that growth. And so we are doing some of that in the Western corridor, where we've got line of sight to the energy exports into the frac sand improvements and some of the other specific growth.

這對我們來說是一個好處。我們將繼續投資以實現成長，因為我們對這一成長有清晰的認識和確定性。因此，我們在西部走廊進行了一些此類工作，在那裡，我們將目光投向了能源出口、壓裂砂改進和其他一些特定的成長領域。

Most of our growth capital right now is focused on that western part of the network. And so we'll look at this constantly. We will always keep our network up to the level that we need to, to make sure that it runs safely and it operates efficiently.

我們目前大部分的成長資本都集中在網路的西部。因此我們會持續關注這個問題。我們將始終保持我們的網路處於我們需要的水平，以確保其安全、高效地運作。

We will build for growth only as we have line of sight. And in all cases, to the first part of your question, we will rigorously defend our competitive access, whether it's related to mergers or anything else. And I hope I covered all that you asked for there, Fadi.

只有在我們有視線的情況下，我們才會為成長而建設。在所有情況下，對於您問題的第一部分，我們都將嚴格捍衛我們的競爭准入，無論它與合併有關還是其他任何事情。我希望我已經涵蓋了你所要求的所有內容，Fadi。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

Hey, good afternoon, and thanks for taking the question. So, I guess, Tracy and team, as you're looking out from '25 baking in some more tariff headwinds in the back half of the year, I'm assuming those are probably going to bake into the first half of the year.

嘿，下午好，感謝您回答這個問題。因此，我想，特蕾西和團隊，當你們展望 25 年下半年會出現更多的關稅阻力時，我認為這些阻力可能會持續到上半年。

I'm just wondering from a timing perspective as you go across the CN initiatives that you've got out there, like how confident are you that you can get some volume growth back into the business in '26? Or do we think we're still going to be kind of slugging through this area and uncertain environment again next year? Thanks.

我只是想知道，從時間角度來看，當您回顧您已經採取的 CN 舉措時，您對在 26 年實現業務量增長有多大信心？或者我們認為明年我們仍然會再次陷入這種不確定的境地？謝謝。

I was hoping maybe you could tell me when the tariffs were going to be settled and the trade deals will be done. We don't know. What we've learned is that I'm surprised at where we are now. And I can't -- I'm not someone who can predict exactly what's going to happen here.

我希望您能告訴我關稅何時確定、貿易協議何時達成。我們不知道。我們所了解到的情況是，我對我們目前的狀況感到驚訝。我不能——我無法準確預測這裡會發生什麼。

What I can tell you that we are staying very close to our customers, and there are cases where we can help them get into different markets and to mitigate the impact. There are some cases where customers are very proactively looking at diversifying into other markets, and we think that we can be helpful on that.

我可以告訴你的是，我們與客戶保持著非常密切的聯繫，在某些情況下，我們可以幫助他們進入不同的市場並減輕影響。在某些情況下，客戶非常積極地尋求進入其他市場，我們認為我們可以在這方面提供協助。

But as long as we are in the kind of uncertainty in the tariff environment that we are, I think that you're going to see enough uncertainty in the marketplace that we may see an impact on that. The fundamentals of the growth strategy on this network remained intact and are very strong. And if you think about some of what we've talked about on ag and energy and some of the others, those persist in any regard.

但只要我們處於關稅環境的不確定性之中，我認為你就會看到市場上有足夠的不確定性，我們可能會看到對此的影響。該網絡的成長策略基本面依然完好，而且非常強勁。如果你回想一下我們在農業、能源和其他方面討論過的一些內容，你會發現這些內容在任何方面都是持續存在的。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Hey, great, good afternoon. Thoughts on the range of the mid to upper single digit in terms of EPS growth? But maybe talk about what gets you to top or bottom end? I know Janet ran over a few of the revenues that can snap back. But is it purely revenue? Is it cost? Are we seeing more margin gains?

嘿，太好了，下午好。對於每股收益成長在中高個位數範圍內有何看法？但也許可以談談是什麼讓你達到頂峰或底峰？我知道珍妮特已經計算出了一些可以恢復的收入。但這純粹是收入嗎？有成本嗎？我們是否看到了更多的利潤成長？

And within that, your volumes are down slightly in the first half, down as you mentioned, 6% 3Q to date, the guide's low single-digit growth. Maybe just talk about the confidence of that relative to that EPS growth target range.

其中，你們上半年的銷量略有下降，正如你所說，第三季度迄今為止的銷量為 6%，是指南中較低的個位數增長。也許只是談論相對於每股收益成長目標範圍的信心。

Yeah. Normally, Ken, at this time of the year, we'd be narrowing our guidance, but there are a number of factors at play here, whether it's mix, it's volume, it's currency, it's fuel. So all of those play a role in what would move us through that guidance range. And we thought through the volatility in some of those. But Ghis, do you want to make some comments on that?

是的。肯，通常情況下，在每年的這個時候，我們都會縮小我們的指導範圍，但這裡面有很多因素在起作用，無論是產品組合、產量、貨幣還是燃料。因此，所有這些都對我們實現指導範圍起到了一定的作用。我們也仔細考慮了其中一些問題的波動性。但是吉斯，你想對此發表一些評論嗎？

Yeah, thanks, Tracy. Yeah, some of these factors are very volatile, Ken, as you know. So we started the year thinking that FX, for example, was at $0.70 and it's now at $0.73. And as I said in my remarks, every $0.01 of appreciation of Canadian dollar to US is $0.05 on EPS on an annualized basis.

是的，謝謝，崔西。是的，肯，正如你所知，其中一些因素非常不穩定。例如，我們年初認為外匯匯率為0.70加元，現在卻為0.73加幣。正如我在發言中所說，加元兌美元每公升值0.01加元，年化每股收益就會減少0.05加元。

So I mean, we've assumed now the range would be $0.70 to $0.75 FX for the balance of the year. We'll see. But as you know, if the Canadian dollar continues to appreciate, then that's going to be a headwind. And if it depreciates, then it's going to be a tailwind, a little bit of the same on fuel, OHD and WTI will stay for the balance of year about at the current spot rates because we don't know.

所以我的意思是，我們現在假設今年餘下的外匯範圍將是 0.70 美元到 0.75 美元。我們將拭目以待。但如你所知，如果加元繼續升值，那麼這將是一個阻力。如果美元貶值，那麼就會形成順風，對燃料來說，OHD 和 WTI 的價格會略有不同，在今年餘下的時間裡，OHD 和 WTI 的價格將保持在目前的現貨價格水平，因為我們不知道。

And that's very volatile. So -- and then, of course, the mix is something that hit us quite a bit this year, as Janet mentioned.

這是非常不穩定的。所以 — — 當然，正如珍妮特所提到的那樣，這種混合是今年對我們影響很大的因素。

And those are all the things that we can't control, but what we can control is how we respond to it. And that is our key focus as we go through a period of uncertainty like this.

這些都是我們無法控制的事情，但我們可以控制如何應對。當我們經歷這樣的不確定時期時，這就是我們的重點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Konark Gupta。

Thanks. Good afternoon. Just on the domestic intermodal side, I think you guys talked about the market share gains there. It seems like volumes are running pretty good. Can you talk about where the gains are coming from and what's driving it? And just a quick clarification question on the carbon tax elimination. Just the Q2 operating ratio, did it benefit from the elimination or was it neutral?

謝謝。午安.僅在國內聯運方面，我想你們談到了那裡的市場份額增長。看起來交易量運作得相當不錯。能談談收益來自哪裡以及推動收益的因素嗎？我只是想快速澄清一下有關取消碳稅的問題。僅就第二季的營業比率而言，它是否因消除而受益，還是保持中性？

Now I can start off with the first question on the domestic intermodal. The answer is a pretty straightforward, Konark, it's a really good service. And so we've been able to -- with the help of the operating team just really demonstrate to customers that we have a fluid network, a fast network when it needs to be for the case of domestic intermodal, and we've gained some share there. On the other piece, Ghislain, I'll pass it to you.

現在我可以從有關國內聯運的第一個問題開始。答案很簡單，科納克，這是非常好的服務。因此，在營運團隊的幫助下，我們能夠向客戶真正展示我們擁有一個流暢的網絡，一個在國內聯運需要時快速的網絡，並且我們在那裡獲得了一些份額。另一件事情，吉斯蘭，我會把它傳給你。

Yeah, Konark. On the carbon tax elimination, it is a complete flow through to customers, as Janet pointed out. Now maybe it's tough to put your finger on it because it's a bit masked by the other factors that you saw in the earnings drivers that we demonstrated in Q2, including the mix. So it's a bit masked by those factors.

是的，科納克。關於取消碳稅，正如珍妮特所指出的那樣，這是一個完全流向消費者的過程。現在可能很難確定原因，因為它被我們在第二季度展示的盈利驅動因素中看到的其他因素（包括組合）所掩蓋。因此它有點被這些因素掩蓋了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克（Ravi Shanker）。

Great, thanks, everyone. Janet, great to have you back on the call. You said in your prepared remarks that your customers that you're talking to see they're rethinking their supply chain. Can you talk about what changes they're talking about, both in the short term as well as the medium to long term?

太好了，謝謝大家。珍妮特，很高興您再次來電。您在準備好的演講中說過，您正在交談的客戶發現他們正在重新考慮他們的供應鏈。您能談談他們所談論的變化嗎，包括短期和中長期的變化？

Yeah. Certainly, I think the metals and minerals segment is a good example of how they've been able to adapt in the short term. And you may recall, about one-third of our business is [transborder], two-thirds going south, one-third coming north. That's the segment most impacted, I would say, by the trade and tariff situation.

是的。當然，我認為金屬和礦物領域是一個很好的例子，說明他們如何在短期內適應。您可能還記得，我們的業務約有三分之一是跨國的，三分之二是向南的，三分之一是向北的。我想說，這是受貿易和關稅情勢影響最大的部分。

And so we have a strong franchise independently in both Canada and the US. And so in the case of some of that metals and minerals, we've been able to do alternative supply chains intra-Canada, intra-US we've been able to capitalize on some different automotive lanes. These are the short-term things.

因此，我們在加拿大和美國都擁有強大的獨立特許經營權。因此，對於某些金屬和礦物，我們已經能夠在加拿大內部、美國內部建立替代供應鏈，我們已經能夠利用一些不同的汽車通道。這些都是短期的事情。

What the customers are starting to talk to us about now is what can we do on a longer-term basis to reduce their exposure to the US market and to think about how to get more goods offshore. So that's something that we're certainly focused on. I would say, frankly, both with our customers as well as with the Canadian government and other stakeholders along the supply chain.

客戶現在開始與我們談論的是，從長遠來看，我們可以做些什麼來減少他們在美國市場的敞口，並思考如何將更多的商品運往海外。所以這是我們當然關注的事情。坦白說，我想說，我們與客戶、加拿大政府以及供應鏈上的其他利害關係人建立了良好的關係。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey, thanks. Afternoon. Nice to hear you on the call, Janet. I'm not sure if this is for you or Tracy, I know a few people have already asked about volume, but just big picture, like volume RTM are down in Q2, down to start Q3.

嘿，謝謝。下午。很高興接到你的電話，珍妮特。我不確定這是否適用於您或 Tracy，我知道已經有幾個人詢問過銷量，但只是總體情況，例如 RTM 銷量在第二季度下降，到第三季度開始時也下降。

Every other rail is positive. I just don't know that I recall many other times with one rail as an outlier without there being some sort of like operational issue, and that's obviously not the case right now. So I don't know, do you have just an explanation for the relative volume trend versus others?

每隔一條軌道都是正極。我只是不記得有多少次當一條鐵軌出現異常時，並沒有出現某種類似的操作問題，但現在顯然不是這種情況。所以我不知道，您是否對與其他趨勢相比的相對成交量趨勢有一個解釋？

And then maybe just separately, Tracy, last quarter, you were talking about a path to 200 basis points of margin improvement for the year. What's embedded in the guide now, if you can. Thank you.

然後也許只是單獨討論，特蕾西，上個季度，您談到了今年利潤率提高 200 個基點的途徑。如果可以的話，現在指南中嵌入了什麼。謝謝。

Thanks, Scott. I can start off a little bit on the volume side. It's always very hard to compare, I think, across the rails, and we've got different books of business. And we also have different year-over-year comparables. So sometimes somebody who's up this year is because they had a weaker year last year.

謝謝，斯科特。我可以從音量方面開始講解。我認為，跨行業進行比較總是非常困難的，而且我們有不同的業務帳簿。我們也有不同的同比數據。所以，有時某些人今年表現上升是因為去年表現較弱。

I would say the two segments on the US side that have been particularly strong as intermodal as well as the thermal coal. And I think that's kind of why you see some of their volumes coming through. I would say what was a little bit unusual for us in the quarter was the amount of impact that we had in that petroleum and chemicals segment. And really most of those are kind of transient issues.

我想說，美國方面有兩個領域表現特別強勁：多式聯運和動力煤。我想這就是為什麼你會看到他們的一些作品湧現出來。我想說，本季對我們來說有點不尋常的是我們在石油和化學品領域的影響。事實上，大多數問題都是暫時性的。

So they're going to resolve themselves as we kind of work our way through Q3. Now as you've seen, it's not in the first couple of weeks of Q3, it's going to take a little bit of time. But we do feel those are going to come back.

因此，隨著我們進入第三季度，這些問題將會自行解決。正如您所看到的，這並不是在第三季的頭幾週，這需要一點時間。但我們確實感覺到這些將會回歸。

And as it relates to your question on the operating margin improvement of the year, we are going to expect -- we do expect margin improvement in 2025. This hasn't changed. You've seen some improvement in Q1 and Q2, the easier compares.

至於您關於今年營業利潤率提高的問題，我們預計—我們確實預計 2025 年利潤率會提高。這一點沒有改變。您已經看到 Q1 和 Q2 有所改善，更容易比較。

As you know, our Q3 and Q4, we've outlined the headwinds, particularly the traffic mix. So hitting 200 basis points, maybe a little bit more of a challenge than it was before, but it's not completely off the table. As always, it depends on volume and mix.

如您所知，我們在第三季和第四季概述了不利因素，特別是交通組合。因此，達到 200 個基點可能比以前更具挑戰性，但並非完全不可能。像往常一樣，這取決於音量和混合。

But what is going to support it is the velocity with which we are kind of responding as we see changes in mix and volume out in the property and the extent to which we can make sure that our resources match kind of what we're trying to move.

但是，當我們看到財產的組合和數量發生變化時，我們做出反應的速度以及我們確保我們的資源與我們試圖移動的內容相符的程度將支持這一點。

David Zazula, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的戴維‧扎祖拉 (David Zazula)。

Hey, thanks for squeezing me in here. Janet, as you're coming in for the interim, I guess, what are your kind of priorities? What do you see as key opportunities for your time in the (inaudible) financially or by product focus?

嘿，謝謝你讓我擠到這裡。珍妮特，我想，既然您是臨時上任的，您的首要任務是什麼？您認為您在財務或產品方面（聽不清楚）的主要機會是什麼？

Yeah, I think, David, I think the key focus is to really try and get a little more agility built into the commercial side of the business. It's a brave new market out there in terms of the way things are moving. We do see more opportunities on the spot market as supply chains kind of evolve in relation to trade and tariffs.

是的，我認為，大衛，我認為關鍵的重點是真正嘗試在業務的商業方面建立更多的靈活性。從事物發展的角度來看，這是一個勇敢的新市場。隨著供應鏈在貿易和關稅方面不斷發展，我們確實看到現貨市場上有更多機會。

So I think the focus is really around the intensity of execution around those spot markets, our ability to drive that growth pipeline that's more specific to CN, and to be able to adapt as these markets evolve potentially including to offshore. So intensity of execution, I guess, is the way I would frame it up.

因此，我認為重點實際上在於這些現貨市場的執行強度、我們推動更特定於 CN 的成長管道的能力，以及隨著這些市場（包括離岸市場）的潛在發展而進行適應的能力。因此，我想，執行強度就是我建構它的方式。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Yeah, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for the time. Tracy, I think this question is for you. Can you maybe just perhaps speak to the recent change in the Chief Commercial Officer position? I certainly applaud Janet for stepping in here on pretty short notice, but it's hard not to observe, I'd say, the lack of continuity in the C-suite over the last five years.

是的，大家下午好。謝謝你的時間。崔西，我想這個問題是問你的。您能否談談首席商務官職位最近的變動？我當然對珍妮特在短時間內介入表示讚賞，但我要說的是，很難不注意到過去五年來高層缺乏連續性。

Do you think you're getting closer to the team that you need? Do you think that the continuity is an issue? Just trying to get a sense for why the change in the current environment. Thanks.

您認為您離您需要的團隊越來越近了嗎？您認為連續性是個問題嗎？只是想了解當前環境改變的原因。謝謝。

So listen, I won't comment on any specific change, Steve. But what I will say is that it's my job to make sure that we've got the right team across commercial and across the organization to execute on our strategy, and I take that very, very seriously. And I very much appreciate Janet stepping into this position. So let me just leave it there. We've got the right team, and we're moving forward.

所以聽著，史蒂夫，我不會對任何具體的變化發表評論。但我要說的是，我的工作是確保我們擁有一支適合整個商業和組織的團隊來執行我們的策略，我對此非常非常重視。我非常感謝珍妮特擔任這個職位。所以我把它留在那裡。我們擁有合適的團隊，我們正在不斷前進。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you. And maybe following up on a previous question in terms of the margin improvement or OR improvement for the year. Could you talk a little bit about just cadence as we think about the back half of that OR and there's a lot of moving pieces here admittedly.

嗨，下午好。謝謝。或許可以就今年的利潤率改善或 OR 改善問題來跟進先前的問題。當我們考慮 OR 的後半部分時，您能否稍微談談節奏，並且不可否認這裡有很多活動的部分。

So I would love to get your thoughts on how we should think about cadence in the back half in conjunction with your outlook for it is still seeing improvement for 2025. Thank you.

因此，我很想聽聽您對我們應該如何看待下半年節奏的看法，以及您對 2025 年仍將有所改善的展望。謝謝。

I think the cadence is difficult to say, and it's going to match kind of the volume. And the thing is you heard Derek talk about -- and Pat, the fact that we can -- we're positioning ourselves to move as quickly as possible as we see changes in mix and volume on the downside.

我認為節奏很難說，它會與音量相匹配。事實是，你聽到德里克和帕特談到了這一點，事實上，我們可以——我們正在做好準備，在看到下行組合和數量發生變化時盡快採取行動。

They've demonstrated a level of acuity around getting that done quickly. It is impossible to match it on the downside dollar for dollar given the timelines of getting locomotives out of the system or getting kind of furloughs in place. But what they also have an eye on in which we need to be equally nimble at is responding on the upside.

他們表現出了快速完成任務的敏銳度。考慮到將機車從系統中移除或實施休假的時間表，不可能在下行方面實現一美元對一美元的匹配。但他們也關注的是，我們需要同樣靈活地做出正面的反應。

And so we're staying very close to the folks that have been furloughed. We want them to be able to come back quickly. Pat is making sure that the locomotive fleet is ready to go. So it's really going to depend on how and when the volumes show up and where they show up from a mix perspective. I don't think we could put a cadence on kind of the margin improvement over the second half.

因此，我們與那些被迫休假的人們保持密切聯繫。我們希望他們能夠盡快回來。帕特正在確保機車車隊已準備好出發。因此，這實際上取決於從混合角度來看音量如何、何時出現以及出現在哪裡。我認為我們無法對下半年利潤率的提升設定一個節奏。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀的湯姆·韋德維茨（Tom Wadewitz）。

Yeah, good afternoon. I guess going back to the executive change, I know Tracy, you didn't want to offer too much perspective on that. But was there something related to that where you'd say, like there was kind of execution of the strategy that wasn't right or maybe we didn't quite have the strategy right? Or is it just not related to that?

是的，下午好。我想回到高階主管變動的問題，我知道崔西，你不想對此發表太多看法。但是，您會說，與此相關的事情是否有些，例如策略執行得不太正確，或者我們的策略可能不太正確？還是它與此無關？

And then I guess on the intermodal topic, is that -- it doesn't sound like it's tariff related in terms of softening in second half, is that more kind of just demand and macro related? So as any thoughts on those two, appreciate it. Thank you.

然後我想，關於多式聯運的話題，這聽起來不像是與下半年的關稅疲軟有關，而是與需求和宏觀更多相關？因此，如果您對這兩位有什麼想法，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Listen, I'm not going to make any comments on the team issue. Our concerns and what the headwinds are in this environment right now are related to tariffs and related to the impact of those tariffs on certain sectors and the impact of all of that on kind of questions around the macroeconomic.

聽著，我不會對球隊問題發表任何評論。我們的擔憂以及當前環境下的不利因素與關稅有關，與關稅對某些行業的影響以及所有這些對宏觀經濟問題的影響有關。

This is not new, the economy will recover, we've been here before. We will get, I think, ultimately, certainty in the tariff and trade deal front. And as we see that, then our strategy is the right one for our network and our diversified book of business.

這並不是什麼新鮮事，經濟將會復甦，我們以前也經歷過這種情況。我認為，我們最終將在關稅和貿易協定方面獲得確定性。正如我們所見，我們的策略對於我們的網路和多元化業務來說是正確的。

We strongly believe in it. We need to move urgently to execute it, as Janet said. And when I look at the construct of this team at every part of the organization, it's with a long-term view with how we're building the capabilities and the muscle to be able to do this not just now but into the future.

我們對此堅信不疑。正如珍妮特所說，我們需要緊急採取行動來執行它。當我審視組織各個部分的團隊結構時，我會從長遠角度考慮如何建立能力和實力，以便不僅在現在，而且在未來都能做到這一點。

And from an intermodal volume perspective, I'll let Janet kind of chime in on this, but it is tariff related. Some of what we've got, we've constructed a great portfolio of international intermodal customers. We like it a lot. They're driving volume through Rupert even at a time when most of the shipping lines are racing to get onto US soil as quickly as possible because of time line around tariffs.

從多式聯運量的角度來看，我會讓珍妮特對此發表意見，但這與關稅有關。憑藉我們所擁有的一些資源，我們已經建立了一個龐大的國際多式聯運客戶組合。我們非常喜歡它。儘管由於關稅時間限制，大多數航運公司都在爭相盡快進入美國本土，但他們仍在透過魯珀特港推動貨運量。

And so this is a tariff related issue. Underneath it, what we can see for sure is really the strength of consumer sentiment and consumer demand, and I think that will unfold over time. Janet, did you have anything else?

所以這是一個與關稅相關的問題。我們可以肯定地看到的是消費者情緒和消費者需求的強勁程度，我認為這將隨著時間的推移而顯現。珍妮特，你還有別的事嗎？

Yeah, I could just add a couple of more comments. I think certainly, since post-COVID, that fall intermodal peak has become a pretty elusive concept. I think what we're seeing right now across the marketplace, and this is not specific to CN is that there's been some inventory front-end loading.

是的，我還可以補充幾則評論。我認為，自從新冠疫情爆發以來，秋季聯運高峰已經成為一個相當難以捉摸的概念。我認為我們現在在整個市場上看到的是，存在一些庫存前端加載，而這並非 CN 獨有的。

It's quite possible that July may have been the peak season. It's going to depend on how consumer sentiment, as Tracy mentioned, plays out from here. I would add as well that of the goods that we're moving, it's not just China, it's also Korea, it's also Japan.

七月很可能是旺季。正如 Tracy 所提到的，這將取決於消費者情緒如何變化。我還要補充一點，我們運送的貨物不僅來自中國，還有韓國和日本。

There are meaningful tariffs on those countries as well, and they're on higher-value goods that may be sensitive as well to a Nintendo PlayStation. For example, you put a 25% on that. It's perhaps meaningful in the context of the consumer. So I think we're holding our share really well, and I think that's a testament to the service that we're providing.

這些國家也面臨高關稅，而這些關稅針對的是高價值商品，可能對任天堂 PlayStation 也同樣敏感。例如，你把 25% 放在那個上面。從消費者的角度來看，這也許是有意義的。所以我認為我們的份額保持得很好，我認為這證明了我們所提供服務的水平。

But I think it is a tougher marketplace. And you guys have good visibility on that when you look at how transpacific rates are falling, when you look at how capacity is being pulled unto those lanes. So we're going to wait and see, but we're going to protect our share, and we're going to see what we can do to leverage our service to drive more.

但我認為這是一個更艱難的市場。當您看到跨太平洋航線的運價如何下降，當您看到運力如何被拉向這些航線時，您就會清楚地看到這一點。因此，我們將拭目以待，但我們將保護我們的份額，我們將看看我們能做些什麼來利用我們的服務來推動更多業務。

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

喬納森·查佩爾（Jonathan Chappell），Evercore ISI。

Thank you. Good afternoon. Going back to some of the recent headlines as it relates to some of the new services you've created with the players in that speculation. Is there anything as far as out clauses or how long some of the agreements are that we should be focused on? Specifically, I'm thinking (technical difficulty)

謝謝。午安.回顧最近的一些頭條新聞，因為它與您與參與者共同創建的一些新服務有關。我們應該關注哪些條款或哪些協議的期限？具體來說，我認為（技術難度）

You kind of cut out on us there, Jon, at the last little bit. I'm not clear what your question is. Could you repeat it?

喬恩，最後一點，你有點打斷我們了。我不清楚你的問題是什麼。你能重複一遍嗎？

Yeah, well, I'll just be more direct about it. As it relates to the merger headlines, you have the Falcon premium service with Union Pacific. So are there any out clauses associated with that? Do we know how long that agreement is for? Anything we should be worried about if there's any change in ownership or collaboration within East Coast Rail?

是的，我會更直接地談論它。就合併新聞而言，您可以與聯合太平洋公司一起享受 Falcon 優質服務。那麼是否存在與此相關的排除條款？我們知道該協議的有效期限是多久嗎？如果東海岸鐵路的所有權或合作關係發生任何變化，我們應該擔心什麼？

Look, no, I would just remind everybody that, that service is really Mexico to Canada, North South is the other important part of that piece. So we're going to continue driving that volume.

瞧，不，我只是想提醒大家，這項服務實際上是從墨西哥到加拿大，南北是該部分的另一個重要部分。因此，我們將繼續推動這項銷售。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ari Rosa, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里·羅莎 (Ari Rosa)。

Hi, good afternoon. I wanted to follow up just on the CapEx point. I was hoping you could break down for us or remind us at least what share of your CapEx is maintenance versus growth. And it's been some time, if we go back and look at kind of the history, it's been some time since we've seen meaningful growth in RTMs.

嗨，下午好。我只是想跟進一下資本支出點。我希望您能為我們分解一下，或至少提醒我們您的資本支出中有多少份額是維護，有多少份額是成長。已經有一段時間了，如果我們回顧一下歷史，我們已經有一段時間沒有看到 RTM 有意義的成長了。

I'm just wondering how you get confidence that you're seeing the appropriate ROIs from that elevated level of CapEx spend? Thanks.

我只是想知道您如何確信從如此高水平的資本支出中看到了適當的投資回報率？謝謝。

Yeah, Ari, I can talk about it. And Tracy, if you want to jump in, you're welcome to do it. But really, a good portion of our CapEx envelope is maintenance, like all of the other rails. When we do invest in capacity, a lot of it is in Western Canada, like Pat mentioned.

是的，阿里，我可以談論這個。崔西，如果你想加入的話，歡迎你加入。但實際上，就像所有其他鐵路一樣，我們的資本支出很大一部分用於維護。正如帕特所提到的，當我們確實投資產能時，許多投資都在加拿大西部。

We do invest with a thought of capital efficiency, i.e., we want to make sure that about 100% of our investment goes in the ground. And then with the growth CapEx related to customers, we look at the internal rate of return.

我們確實以資本效率的理念進行投資，也就是說，我們希望確保我們的投資 100% 都投入實際。然後，根據與客戶相關的成長資本支出，我們來看看內部報酬率。

And we want to make sure that the internal rate of return is above our threshold internally, and we've got detailed business cases on this to make sure that we have the benefits coming in and we go and track those after these investments are done.

我們希望確保內部報酬率高於我們的內部門門檻，並且我們對此有詳細的商業案例，以確保我們獲得收益，並在這些投資完成後追蹤這些收益。

I mean I'd say that, that's basically -- and Tracy, I think you made the point is when we look at our maintenance CapEx, the key here is to do it more efficiently. And we're very happy with the changes we've done in engineering lately where we can see some of this productivity and efficiency coming in and allowing us to invest more at a lower cost.

我的意思是，基本上就是這樣——特蕾西，我認為你的觀點是，當我們審視維護資本支出時，關鍵是要更有效率地完成它。我們對最近在工程方面所做的改變感到非常高興，我們可以看到生產力和效率的提高，並使我們能夠以更低的成本進行更多的投資。

And let me just add a little bit to that. So our CapEx, I don't think we give the breakdown in CapEx between maintenance CapEx and growth, but it also includes IT. The IT capital that we spend. And if you look at -- we watch very closely the returns on the growth CapEx.

讓我再補充一點。因此，我們的資本支出，我認為我們沒有給出維護資本支出和成長之間的資本支出細目，但它也包括 IT。我們花費的 IT 資本。如果你看一下——我們非常密切地關注成長資本支出的回報。

And as Ghis has said, a lot of it is in very specific to some of the growth, primarily, not completely, but primarily in the Western part of the network. And it's tied to volume through usually commercial contracts that protect the return on that. And so that volume is showing up.

正如吉斯所說，其中很大一部分與某些增長有關，主要是（雖然不是全部）網絡的西部。它通常透過商業合約與交易量掛鉤，以保護其回報。因此該音量就顯示出來了。

We have had the volume declines in other parts of the network that create for us capacity. And the magic will happen, as Derek was speaking earlier, well if we can fill trains and fill corridors where we have capacity more related to the South and the Eastern parts of our network.

我們網路其他部分的流量有所下降，這為我們帶來了容量的減少。奇蹟就會發生，正如德里克之前所說的那樣，如果我們能夠填滿火車並填滿與我們網絡的南部和東部更相關的容量的走廊。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆梅傑斯，薩斯奎漢納。

Thanks for taking my questions. Looking back four years, CN was drawn into a merger situation, but faced resistance from regulators and shareholders, and that ultimately led to some changes in management and both the Board.

感謝您回答我的問題。回顧四年前，加拿大國家鐵路公司陷入了合併的境地，但面臨監管機構和股東的阻力，最終導致管理層和董事會的一些變化。

If the Class I rails did consolidate into two Transcon networks in the US, what is the biggest competitive concern that you would have? And does CN's experience from 2021 and '22 keep you on the sidelines from what may transpire over the next 12 to 18 months? Or are there scenarios where you'd actually want to be an active participant from a defensive situation? Thank you.

如果一級鐵路確實合併為美國的兩大 Transcon 網絡，您最大的競爭擔憂是什麼？那麼，加拿大國家鐵路公司在 2021 年和 2022 年的經歷是否會讓您對未來 12 到 18 個月可能發生的事情保持觀望態度？或者是否存在你實際上想從防禦的角度積極參與的情況？謝謝。

Listen, we're not going to speculate on the whole merger question. And we are focused right now on driving execution to our plan on our network, and we think that, that's the right thing for us to be focused on. In any scenario, we would very rigorously defend our competitive access and our growth prospects, and I'm going to leave it at that. Thank you.

聽著，我們不會對整個合併問題進行猜測。我們現在專注於推動我們網路計劃的執行，我們認為，這是我們應該關注的正確事情。在任何情況下，我們都會非常嚴格地捍衛我們的競爭管道和成長前景，我就不多說了。謝謝。

That concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Tracy Robinson.

問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給 Tracy Robinson。

Thank you, Christa. Well, thank you all for joining us today. We are indeed in uncertain times. And while we can't predict exactly where tariffs and trade and the economy will go, we are very intensely focused on doing the things that we can do both with our customers and in controlling our cost to make sure that we protect our margins and are well positioned to execute our growth strategy as we go forward. Thank you for your time today, and we look forward to talking soon.

謝謝你，克里斯塔。好吧，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們確實處於不確定的時期。雖然我們無法準確預測關稅、貿易和經濟的走向，但我們非常專注於為客戶做我們所能控制的事情，並控製成本，以確保我們保護利潤率，並在未來很好地執行我們的成長策略。感謝您今天抽出時間，我們期待很快再次交談。

The conference call has now ended. Thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect your lines.

電話會議現已結束。感謝您的參與，您可以斷開您的線路。