Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Krista, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions).

午安.我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員指令）。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Stacy Alderson, CN's Assistant Vice President of Investor Relations. Ladies and gentlemen, Ms. Alderson.

現在，我想將電話轉給 CN 投資人關係助理副總裁 Stacy Alderson。女士們、先生們，奧爾德森女士。

Thank you, Krista. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for CN's fourth-quarter financial and operating results conference call.

謝謝你，克里斯塔。歡迎大家。感謝您參加 CN 第四季財務與營運業績電話會議。

As of note, we have forward-looking statements and non-GAAP definitions for your review on page 2 of our presentation. These forward-looking statements include estimates, goals, and predictions about the future based on our current information and educated assumptions. These come with risks and uncertainties. And with that, there is always a possibility that the outcomes may differ from expectations. That being said, forward-looking statements aren't guarantees, and factors like economic condition, competition, fuel prices, and regulatory changes could affect actual results.

值得注意的是，我們在簡報的第 2 頁提供了前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 定義供您查看。這些前瞻性陳述包括基於我們目前資訊和有根據的假設對未來的估計、目標和預測。這些都伴隨著風險和不確定性。因此，結果總是有可能與預期不同。話雖如此，前瞻性聲明並非保證，經濟狀況、競爭、燃料價格和監管變化等因素都可能影響實際結果。

Now, joining us on the call today are Tracy Robinson, our President and CEO; Derek Taylor, our Chief Field Operations Officer; Pat Whitehead, our Chief Network Operations Officer; Remi Lalonde, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Ghislain Houle, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天參加電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson；我們的首席現場營運長德里克泰勒 (Derek Taylor)；我們的首席網路營運長 Pat Whitehead；我們的首席商務官 Remi Lalonde；以及我們的財務長 Ghislain Houle。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tracy Robinson.

現在我很高興將電話轉給加拿大國家鐵路公司總裁兼執行長 Tracey Robinson。

(spoken in foreign language) Thanks, everyone, for joining our call. Today, I'll spend a few minutes on 2024 and then turn to our plans for 2025.

（外語）感謝大家參加我們的電話會議。今天，我將花幾分鐘討論 2024 年，然後再談談我們 2025 年的計畫。

Now 2024 was clearly not what we expected and certainly not what we planned. We are happy to have it behind us. We experienced a number of one-off challenges that had some outside impacts on our result including an unprecedented referral to the Canadian Industrial Relations Board by the Canadian government of what was otherwise a normal labor dispute caused three months of uncertainty and the diversion of containing volumes for a longer period of time. And hat was followed by rail shut down and then strikes at the Port of Prince Rupert, Vancouver, and Montreal. Long story short, we were resourced for more volumes than we handled, and we didn't deliver growth to the bottom line. We're not happy with that.

現在，2024 年顯然不是我們所期望的，當然也不是我們所計劃的。我們很高興這件事已經過去了。我們經歷了一些一次性的挑戰，這些挑戰對我們的業績產生了一些外部影響，包括加拿大政府史無前例地將原本正常的勞資糾紛提交給加拿大工業關係委員會，導致了三個月的不確定性，以及包含數量的轉移更長的一段時間。隨後，鐵路關閉，魯珀特王子港、溫哥華和蒙特婁發生罷工。長話短說，我們擁有的資源比我們處理的數量要多，而且我們並沒有實現利潤成長。我們對此很不滿意。

Now there were a number of things that I am pleased with. The team's agility in managing through the year with solid execution was very strong. Our operation recovered from each shock quickly and effectively. Car velocity for the year was solid at almost 210 miles per day despite the challenge and through dwell, an indicator of yard fluidity, is on par with 2023 at seven hours. Now this wouldn't have been the case a few years ago, and I'm proud of the discipline of this team and their adherence to our operating model.

現在有很多事情讓我感到高興。該團隊在全年的管理中表現出了很強的敏捷性和穩健的執行力。我們的行動從每次衝擊中快速而有效地恢復。儘管面臨挑戰，但今年的汽車速度仍然穩定在每天近 210 英里的水平，而車場流動性指標——透過停留時間與 2023 年的 7 小時相當。幾年前的情況並非如此，我為這個團隊的紀律和他們對我們的營運模式的堅持感到自豪。

We also delivered on our CN-specific initiative and grew volumes by more than 1%. We moved record amounts of Canadian grain. We had solid same-store pricing above rail cost inflation. Our customer service remains top tier, and we had the second best accident and injury performances in the company's history, so we have a strong foundation.

我們也實施了針對 CN 的具體計劃，銷量成長了 1% 以上。我們運送了創紀錄數量的加拿大穀物。我們的同店定價穩固高於鐵路成本通膨水準。我們的客戶服務仍然是一流的，而且我們的事故和傷害表現在公司歷史上排名第二，因此我們擁有堅實的基礎。

From a financial perspective, we delivered Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.82 and an operating ratio of 62.6%. For the full year, our adjusted EPS was $7.10, and the OR landed at 62.9%. I'm going to ask the team to give some more color on the quarter's performance in a few minutes.

從財務角度來看，我們在第四季度調整後的每股盈餘為 1.82 美元，營運比率為 62.6%。全年而言，我們的調整後每股收益為 7.10 美元，OR 達到 62.9%。幾分鐘後我將要求團隊對本季的表現進行更詳細的說明。

Now turning to 2025, the new year, the labor issues are behind us, and I feel really good about our set-up for this year. I'll start with the good news from the STB who approved our Iowa Northern transaction. Now I want to extend a warm welcome to our new colleagues. This transaction extends our network reach into the Iowa greenbelt and provides extended single-line access for customers to new markets side.

現在轉向2025年，新的一年，勞工問題已經成為過去，我對我們今年的安排感到非常滿意。我首先要告訴大家一個好消息，STB 批准了我們愛荷華北部鐵路的交易。現在，我要向我們的新同事表示熱烈的歡迎。此交易將我們的網路覆蓋範圍拓展至愛荷華州綠帶，並為客戶提供進入新市場的擴展單線通道。

Now side benefit of the deal is that we're bringing on a team with a strong entrepreneurial spirit, and that's something that we want to lean into as an organization. We'll start the integration in a few weeks, and I expect to realize operational and commercial synergies in the coming months.

這筆交易的附帶好處是，我們將擁有一支具有強烈創業精神的團隊，而這正是我們作為一個組織想要依賴的。我們將在幾週內開始整合，我預計在未來幾個月內實現營運和商業協同效應。

Now in the operation, we're well into winter, and the network has been fluid despite the cold. As we've rounded into January, we've had shorter bouts of severe cold, which has allowed us to pick up velocity. Month-to-date car velocity is nearly 200 miles per day, right in that sweet spot for winter operations. This railroad continues to run well.

目前，營運已進入冬季，雖然天氣寒冷，但網路仍暢通。進入一月份，我們經歷了持續時間較短的嚴寒天氣，這讓我們能夠加快步伐。本月迄今的車速接近每天 200 英里，正好處於冬季行駛的最佳速度。這條鐵路持續運作良好。

Now a tight operation is table stakes for both customer service and margin expansion. Over the past number of quarters, we've taken actions to realign resources, both people and assets, and this will flow through in our results moving forward. And we'll continue to refine the operating plan and resourcing as necessary. We're also continuing to focus on our productivity initiatives, including in engineering and mechanical. It will help us mitigate the impact of inflation and support operating leverage.

現在，嚴格營運已成為客戶服務和擴大利潤的必要條件。在過去的幾個季度中，我們已經採取行動重新調整人力和資產等資源，這將影響我們未來的表現。我們將根據需要繼續完善營運計劃和資源配置。我們也將繼續專注於我們的生產力計劃，包括工程和機械領域的計劃。它將幫助我們減輕通貨膨脹的影響並支持營運槓桿。

Now on the labor front, we're in a stable position this year. We reached a tentative agreement with the IBEW this week. So this is a union representing our signals and communications employees, positive progress for both parties. We're also pleased that we reached a four-year agreement with Unifor in December. Unifor represents our employees that work in mechanical, clerical, and the intermodal function. With respect to the Teamsters union, which represents our conductors and locomotive engineers, the arbitration process is proceeding as expected and on track to be wrapped up by the end of the second quarter. Now, these unions represent the bulk of our Canadian unionized workforce.

現在就勞動力方面而言，今年我們的狀況是穩定的。本週我們與IBEW達成了初步協議。因此，這是一個代表我們的信號和通信員工的工會，對雙方來說都是積極的進展。我們也很高興12月與Unifor達成了為期四年的協議。Unifor 代表從事機械、文書和多式聯運工作的員工。對於代表我們的列車長和機車工程師的卡車司機工會來說，仲裁過程正在按預期進行，並將在第二季末完成。現在，這些工會代表了我們加拿大工會勞動力的大部分。

We're also progressing well with negotiations in the US. And ports in the West Coast and in Montreal are proceeding with their own arbitration process, so we're in good shape on labor stability across the supply chain in 2025.

我們與美國的談判也取得了順利進展。西海岸和蒙特利爾的港口正在進行自己的仲裁程序，因此我們在 2025 年整個供應鏈的勞動力穩定性方面處於良好狀態。

Now finally, when we think of the broader economy, the most significant driver could be what happens with tariffs initiated by the new US administration. We all want growth in the North American economy, and we want consumers to be strong, and we're hopeful that the conditions that will support this will be in place.

最後，當我們考慮更廣泛的經濟時，最重要的驅動因素可能是新美國政府發起的關稅措施。我們都希望北美經濟能夠成長，我們希望消費者能夠強勁成長，我們也希望能夠具備支持這一點的條件。

Now, clearly, we can't predict how this will unfold, but we can' control how we respond and how we partner with customers to adjust. And we've considered a full range of options and have a plan for various scenarios. The key for us will be to be nimble and adjust quickly as the situation unfolds.

現在，顯然我們無法預測事態將如何發展，但我們無法控制我們如何應對以及如何與客戶合作進行調整。我們已經考慮了各種選擇，並針對各種情況制定了計劃。我們的關鍵是要根據情勢的發展靈活應對，迅速做出調整。

Turning to our 2025 outlook, we've provided an earnings guidance which accounts for multiple scenarios related to volume, energy prices, and currency. Significantly, our underlying assumption as it relates to tariffs and the potential retaliatory measures is that while there may be some impact, it won't be so significant or prolonged as to cause a recession in Canada or significant inflationary impacts in the US. With this in mind, we expect to deliver 10% to 15% EPS growth for 2025, and we are reaffirming our 2024 to '26 outlook for compound annual high single-digit EPS growth.

談到我們的 2025 年展望，我們提供了獲利指引，其中考慮了與產量、能源價格和貨幣相關的多種情境。值得注意的是，我們對關稅和潛在報復措施的基本假設是，雖然可能會產生一些影響，但其影響不會那麼嚴重或持久，不會引發加拿大經濟衰退或美國通膨出現顯著影響。考慮到這一點，我們預計 2025 年每股收益將成長 10% 至 15%，並且我們重申 2024 年至 2026 年每股收益複合年個位數高成長的前景。

While the business environment has evolved from our Investor Day timeframe, the investment thesis we presented has not. We remain in growth mode, and we're executing our strategy this year, including year-over-year margin improvement. So we're aiming for growth in volumes as well as earnings and margin. Now to give you a sense of the margin improvement quantum, all together, the 2024 one-offs including fuel impacted operating ratio by roughly 200 basis points.

雖然商業環境已經從投資者日的時間框架發生了變化，但我們提出的投資論點卻沒有。我們仍處於成長模式，我們正在執行今年的策略，包括逐年提高利潤率。因此，我們的目標是增加銷售量、增加收益和增加利潤。現在，讓您了解利潤率改善的量，總的來說，包括燃料在內的 2024 年一次性事件對營業比率產生了約 200 個基點的影響。

Remi will give you more details on the volume outlook, which all then assumes low to mid single-digit RTM growth. More than 50% of it is expected to come from CN-specific initiatives, about a third is related to the recovery of volumes lost from last year's labor disruption, and the remaining assumes a bit of a lift in the economy. We do expect the shape of the volume growth to the year to be more back-end weighted as we lap last year's disruption. We're guiding for a CapEx program of $3.4 billion for 2025 to ensure safe and efficient operation as well as to support growth.

Remi 將向您提供有關銷量前景的更多詳細信息，所有這些都假設 RTM 增長率為低至中等個位數。預計其中超過 50% 將來自針對 CN 的特定舉措，約三分之一與恢復去年勞工中斷造成的銷售損失有關，剩餘部分則與經濟略有提振有關。我們確實預計，由於去年的混亂局面，今年的銷售成長形態將更多地受到後端影響。我們正在製定 2025 年 34 億美元的資本支出計劃，以確保安全高效運作並支持成長。

As Pat will discuss, we're doing the work to improve the efficiency with which we manage our engineering programs, and we're very focused on locomotive availability and reliability. The year is off to a positive start as we expected. We have the momentum we need to demonstrate the strength of this network and franchise.

正如帕特所討論的，我們正在努力提高管理工程專案的效率，並且我們非常注重機車的可用性和可靠性。正如我們預期的那樣，今年有一個積極的開端。我們擁有所需的動力來展示這個網絡和特許經營的實力。

Derek, you're up first on the condition of the operation.

德瑞克，你先來了解手術的狀況。

Thanks, Tracy, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，特蕾西，大家下午好。

Turning to slide 7. From an operating perspective, the fourth quarter was really a story of two halves. During the first half of the quarter, we had to view operating conditions in terms of weather. The team handled strong demand very efficiently. We kept pace with customer orders and did not have any backlogs.

翻到幻燈片 7。從營運角度來看，第四季其實是兩個半場的故事。在本季的前半段，我們必須從天氣角度來看待營運狀況。該團隊非常有效率地處理了強勁的需求。我們跟上了客戶訂單的步伐，沒有任何積壓。

Unfortunately, we began November with two weeks of port labor disruptions, both on the West Coast affecting Vancouver and Prince Rupert as well as in Eastern Canada at Montreal. This was impactful to our intermodal network due to the staging of trains and balancing of equipment, but the rest of the railway continued to run well. Now during the second half of the quarter, just as we started to see volumes ramp up after the core labor stoppage, we started a long stretch of really cold weather across much of the Western region, our busiest. As we have said in the past, we are the railroad of the north when compared to our level Class 1s and no strangers to cold weather at CN.

不幸的是，11 月初，港口工人遭遇了為期兩週的罷工，西海岸的溫哥華和魯珀特港以及加拿大東部的蒙特利爾都受到影響。由於列車的分期和設備的平衡，這對我們的多式聯運網絡產生了影響，但其餘鐵路仍運作良好。現在，在本季的後半段，就在我們開始看到核心勞動力停工後產量增加時，我們最繁忙的西部地區的大部分地區開始出現長時間的真正寒冷天氣。正如我們過去所說的那樣，與我們的一級鐵路相比，我們是北方的鐵路，對加拿大國家鐵路的寒冷天氣並不陌生。

Therefore, we activated our winter operating plan, which is our blueprint for how we manage extreme cold. That said, I would just remind you that winter came late in the prior year as we had zero days operating under tier restrictions in November and December of 2023. That was compared to 28 days of tier restrictions to close out those same two months in 2024. When coupled with some mainline disruptions that occurred in the Western region, you can certainly see the impact on our key statistics when we look at them monthly. Car velocity dropped from around 220 to 191 miles per day for the month of December.

因此，我們啟動了冬季營運計劃，這是我們應對極端寒冷的藍圖。話雖如此，我只想提醒你，去年冬天來得晚，因為我們在 2023 年 11 月和 12 月沒有在分級限制下運作的日子。相較之下，2024 年這兩個月的分級限制為 28 天。再加上西部地區發生的一些主幹線中斷，當我們按月查看時，您肯定可以看到對我們關鍵統計數據的影響。12 月份，汽車行駛速度從每天約 220 英里下降到 191 英里。

Through dwell increased from a very strong October at 6.5 hours to 7.8 hours going into the holidays. 32-hour cars also spiked to around 8,500 during the December time period. When the weather finally broke after operating under 14 consecutive days of tier restrictions to essentially end the year, the railroad recovered nicely. We cut our 32-hour count by more than half down to 4,000 cars in early January, quickly restoring yard fluidity. Through the end of January, car velocity was approaching 200 miles per day with many around 210, which is not bad for winter railway.

停留時間從 10 月的 6.5 小時增加到假期前的 7.8 小時。 12 月份，32 小時用車數量也激增至約 8,500 輛。在經歷了連續 14 天的分級限行之後，天氣終於放晴，鐵路也順利恢復了運作。我們在 1 月初將 32 小時的車輛數量減少了一半以上，降至 4,000 輛，迅速恢復了車場的流動性。截至 1 月底，汽車速度接近每天 200 英里，許多汽車速度達到 210 英里左右，對於冬季鐵路來說，這已經很不錯了。

Dwell also averaged just over seven hours. And we did all this while doing over 15% more daily GTMs in the year. Closing with customer service, we continue to serve our customers extremely well and achieved a slight increase in our local service commitment measure. The West Coast ports had some supply chain challenges at the end of December with vessel bunching and the port holiday shutdown, along with our tier restrictions limiting train length due to the cold weather.

平均停留時間也略超過七小時。我們在完成所有這些工作的同時，今年的每日 GTM 數量增加了 15% 以上。最後以客戶服務為例，我們持續為客戶提供優質服務，並在本地服務承諾指標上略有提升。12 月底，西海岸港口面臨一些供應鏈挑戰，包括船舶擁擠、港口假期關閉，以及由於寒冷天氣導致的分級限制導致列車長度受限。

Now, the ports are in good shape. Rupert is fluid, and we've got inbound vessels on the way. Vancouver inventories and dwell times have also improved to more normalized levels.

目前，港口狀況良好。魯伯特河水流湍急，我們的船隻正在途中。溫哥華的庫存和停留時間也已改善至更正常的水平。

I'll end by thanking the entire operating team for their dedication and efforts through 2024. It was a hell of a dynamic year with lots of things thrown at this railway, which prove the resiliency of this network and this team.

最後，我要感謝整個營運團隊在 2024 年的奉獻和努力。這是充滿活力的一年，鐵路經歷了許多變化，這也證明了這條鐵路網和這支團隊的韌性。

Pat, over to you.

派特，交給你了。

Thanks, Derek. I want to begin with safety. Our injury and accident ratios for the year were the second best in our history, which is a significant achievement. That said, we know there's still work to be done. We are not satisfied with how both quarterly measures ended below last year's levels, and we are committed to making improvements in the months ahead.

謝謝，德里克。首先我想說一下安全。我們今年的傷害和事故率是史上第二好的，這是一項重大成就。儘管如此，我們知道仍有工作要做。我們對兩個季度指標均低於去年同期水準感到不滿意，並致力於在未來幾個月內取得進步。

Further to Tracy's comments, I want to emphasize that our plan is sacred. We strategically deploy resources to power the network, allowing us to quickly get back on track and serve our customers with predictability. This is evident in our origin train performance, which came in at 90% for the full year (inaudible) percent better than 2023, even in the face of disruptions.

針對 Tracy 的評論，我想強調一下，我們的計劃是神聖的。我們策略性地部署資源來驅動網絡，使我們能夠迅速回到正軌並可預測地為客戶提供服務。這從我們的始發列車表現可見一斑，即使面臨中斷，全年的始發列車表現也比 2023 年高出 90%（聽不清楚）。

Next, let's turn to crewing. We've remained disciplined in managing headcount, adjusting to the economic and political uncertainties that shape our workforce needs. These adjustments are already underway, ensuring we align with demand in the volatile environment. Where volumes are growing mainly in the West, we continue to hire with furloughed trainees on standby to quickly respond to demand. This approach has enabled us to improve per cost per GTM by 4% compared to Q3 despite a 3% increase in GTMs. Additionally, our T&E productivity measured by GTM per employee grew by 7% compared to the previous quarter.

接下來我們來談談船員配備問題。我們在員工人數管理方面始終保持嚴謹，以適應影響勞動力需求的經濟和政治不確定性。這些調整已經在進行中，以確保我們能夠滿足動盪環境中的需求。在主要業務量成長的西部地區，我們繼續招募休假的實習生，並隨時待命以快速回應需求。儘管 GTM 增加了 3%，但這種方法使我們的 GTM 成本與第三季相比提高了 4%。此外，以每位員工的 GTM 衡量的差旅與費用生產力與上一季相比成長了 7%。

Having covered our most recent performance, I want to highlight how we're deploying capital to achieve sustained, predictable service and cost performance going forward through both our maintenance and capacity expansion initiatives. Starting with locomotives. We've made significant progress in our DC-to-AC modification program. To date, we have converted 160 older DC units to modern AC propulsion units. Just to put it into perspective, two modernized units deliver the pulling power of three of our older DC units across most of our network. This enhances fleet reliability, fuel efficiency, and improved availability with fewer failures.

在介紹了我們最近的業績後，我想強調我們如何透過維護和產能擴張計劃來部署資本，以實現持續、可預測的服務和成本績效。從機車開始。我們的直流到交流改造專案取得了重大進展。到目前為止，我們已經將 160 台舊式直流裝置改裝為現代化交流電推進裝置。換個角度來說，兩台現代化的裝置為我們大部分網路提供了三台舊直流裝置的牽引力。這提高了車隊的可靠性、燃油效率和可用性，並且減少了故障。

Looking ahead, we're also exploring emerging locomotive technologies. Earlier this month, we launched a small pilot in partnership with Knoxville Locomotive Works for a medium horsepower hybrid unit. This will be tested over the next six months in yard and branch line service, allowing us to prepare for future innovations in a cost-effective, low-risk manner. We've also partnered with OEMs more broadly on alternative propulsion methods, and we are staying close with our peers with the objective to maintain interoperability down the road.

展望未來，我們也正在探索新興的機車技術。本月初，我們與諾克斯維爾機車廠合作，啟動了一項中馬力混合動力裝置的小型試點。我們將在未來六個月內在站場和支線服務中進行測試，使我們能夠以經濟高效、低風險的方式為未來的創新做好準備。我們還與原始設備製造商在替代推進方法方面建立了更廣泛的合作夥伴關係，並與同行保持密切合作，目標是保持未來的互通性。

Turning to engineering. 2024 saw improvements in how we plan and execute our work. We streamlined the material deliveries and standardized our production gains, reducing our reliance on third-party contractors. These efforts led to a 10% improvement in time gain productivity compared to the first half of the year and a 6% improvement year over year. On inventory management, we've made substantial strides by reducing both engineering and mechanical inventory quantities by $35 million with improved asset utilization and reduced our carrying costs.

轉向工程。 2024年，我們工作規劃和執行方式都得到了改善。我們簡化了材料交付並標準化了生產收益，減少了對第三方承包商的依賴。這些努力使得時間增益生產力與上半年相比提高了 10%，與去年同期相比提高了 6%。在庫存管理方面，我們取得了實質進展，將工程和機械庫存數量減少了 3500 萬美元，提高了資產利用率並降低了持有成本。

Lastly, on the capacity front. We've advanced our multiyear capital plan, bringing on key projects in the Chicago and Vancouver corridors. In December, we successfully delivered a new section of double track on the former EJ&E property in Chicago, which will improve fluidity and increase capacity by roughly 20% in the area. Similarly, the Jaleslie Siding, which came online in May, provides about 30% more capacity in the BC South between Kamloops and Vancouver. Later this year, we're looking forward to completing two additional sections of double track on the Edson Sub, west of Edmonton, increasing capacity by 25% through this critical link to pay our growth to the West Coast.

最後，關於容量方面。我們推進了多年資本計劃，並在芝加哥和溫哥華走廊啟動了重點項目。12 月，我們成功在芝加哥前 EJ&E 鐵路項目上交付了一段新的雙軌，這將改善該地區的列車流動性並將運力提高約 20%。同樣，5 月投入使用的 Jaleslie Siding 為坎盧普斯和溫哥華之間不列顛哥倫比亞省南部地區的運輸能力增加了約 30%。今年晚些時候，我們期待在埃德蒙頓以西的埃德森支線完成另外兩個雙軌路段，透過這項關鍵連接將運力提高 25%，以滿足西海岸的成長需求。

With that, I'll pass it on to Remi, and he will tell you how he plans to fill up that capacity.

說完這些，我會將其轉達給雷米，他會告訴你他計劃如何填補這一空缺。

All right. Thank you, Pat. We're working on it, buddy. (spoken in foreign language) We marked this quarter with strong volume in grain and refined petroleum, and we kept the momentum with our expanding franchise for frac sand and NGLs in Northeast British Columbia. But as my colleagues indicated, we faced disruptions from extended port labor disruptions and significant operating restrictions with the early onset of Canadian winter.

好的。謝謝你，帕特。我們正在努力，夥計。（外語）本季度，我們的穀物和精煉石油銷量強勁，並且我們繼續保持強勁勢頭，不斷擴大在英屬哥倫比亞東北部的壓裂砂和天然氣液體特許經營權。但正如我的同事所指出的，隨著加拿大冬季的提前到來，我們面臨著港口勞動力長期中斷和嚴重的營運限制所帶來的干擾。

Combined with lower potash shipments against an opportunistic record comp and softer demand for forest products, overall volume and revenue fell by 3%. This also reflects the considerable headwind from fuel and a slight tailwind from. Let me hit a few of the Q4 segment highlights before turning to our outlook. Despite the slightly smaller crop, we capped a record year for grain shipments with a strong fourth quarter on both sides of the border, reflecting robust Canadian canola and wheat exports from our draw territory, higher US corn and soybean export and domestic volumes, and crush volumes from a new facility in Iowa.

加之鉀肥出貨量低於預期，且林產品需求疲軟，導致總銷售量和營收下降了 3%。這也反映了燃料產生的巨大逆風和輕微的順風。在談到我們的展望之前，讓我先來介紹一下第四季的一些亮點。儘管產量略有下降，但我們的穀物出貨量創下了歷史新高，第四季度邊境兩邊都表現強勁，反映出加拿大油菜籽和小麥從我們的產區出口強勁，美國玉米和大豆出口和國內產量增加，以及壓榨量來自愛荷華州新工廠的產量。

While grain RTMs were 15% higher in Q4, the impact was more than offset by giving back some potash from the 2023 opportunistic gains from the Portland terminal outage. We saw continued growth in refined fuels and NGLs in the P&C business, thanks to projects like the Greater Toronto Area fuel terminal and propane exports through super. But that impact was offset by crude shipments lost to new pipeline capacity and two chemical plant closures. And volumes finished flat, which was better than expected and caps an excellent year of growth, surpassing $500 million in revenue. Some of the commodities we serve faced a bit more of a headwind, including off-market conditions for lumber and export iron ore and the impact to autos from two CN-served plant closures for retooling earlier in the year and a tough comp against dealer restocking.

雖然第四季糧食 RTM 價格上漲了 15%，但波特蘭碼頭停駛帶來的 2023 年機會收益所回饋的部分鉀肥抵消了這一影響。由於大多倫多地區燃料終端和通過超級出口的丙烷等項目，我們看到 P&C 業務中的精煉燃料和 NGL 持續成長。但由於新管道產能增加和兩家化工廠關閉導致的原油運輸量損失，抵消了這一影響。最後銷量持平，這比預期要好，為這一年的出色成長畫上了句號，收入超過了 5 億美元。我們服務的一些大宗商品面臨更多阻力，包括木材和出口鐵礦石的市場行情，以及今年早些時候兩家CN 服務的工廠因重組而關閉對汽車的影響，以及與經銷商補貨的激烈競爭。

So I'd say that the quarter would have played out largely as we expected, but for the impact of the unexpected Western port strike which, among other things, hindered our ability to regain intermodal share following the Teamsters work stoppage this summer and the late quarter operational restrictions with the early onset of Canadian winter, which means that we run out of track to catch up. Let me pivot to 2025. While we expect modest North American industrial production growth in '25, there's considerable uncertainty around the impact of potential tariffs. We will stay very close to customers to support them as best we can through this challenging period. We're forecasting RTM growth in the low- to mid-single digits range to provide for volume variability and for more than half of it to come from our specific growth initiatives.

因此，我想說，本季度的情況基本上符合我們的預期，但西部港口意外罷工的影響，除其他因素外，阻礙了我們在今年夏天卡車司機罷工和晚些時候恢復聯運份額的能力。冬季提前到來，本季的營運限制也隨之而來，這意味著我們已經沒有足夠的時間來趕上進度。讓我把目光轉向 2025 年。雖然我們預計25年北美工業生產將溫和成長，但潛在關稅的影響仍存在相當大的不確定性。我們將與客戶保持密切聯繫，盡力為他們提供支持，幫助他們度過這段充滿挑戰的時期。我們預測 RTM 成長率將在低到中等個位數範圍內，以應對銷售變化，其中超過一半來自我們的特定成長計劃。

We expect that the single biggest contributor will be international intermodal as we normalize for 2024 disruptions and fight to regain US mix through restaurant gateways. We aim to capture the full year benefit of key to our customer wins and grow our customer base by selling end-to-end supply chain efficiency. We're also very excited about new frac sand terminals in Northeast BC to support the robust exploration and production forecasts for the year: US grain on renewable and crush; and the ramp-up of Western Canadian met coal, to name only those.

我們預計，隨著我們為 2024 年的中斷做好準備並爭取透過餐廳入口網站重新獲得美國市場份額，最大的單一貢獻者將是國際聯運。我們的目標是透過銷售端到端的供應鏈效率來獲取贏得客戶的關鍵全年利益並擴大我們的客戶群。我們也對不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部的新壓裂砂終端感到非常興奮，這將支持今年強勁的勘探和生產預測：美國可再生和壓榨穀物；以及西加拿大冶金煤產量的增加，僅舉幾例。

And with the Iowa Northern acquisition, we have incremental opportunities in grain and ethanol. Let me briefly speak to our view by business unit. We expect momentum to build in international intermodal after the first quarter and Chinese Lunar New Year, which we otherwise expect to be slightly up from last year. Similarly, for domestic, we expect the first quarter to be flat to slightly down but to show benefit in H2 from joint line services, icing truck capacity and improving market conditions. For now, we expect lower automotive volumes in Q1 and the year due to lower production forecast amid market uncertainty.

隨著對愛荷華北方鐵路的收購，我們在穀物和乙醇領域獲得了更大的機會。讓我簡單談談我們業務部門的觀點。我們預計，第一季和中國農曆新年之後，國際聯運業的發展動能將增強，預計比去年略有成長。同樣，對於國內市場而言，我們預計第一季將持平或略有下降，但下半年將受益於聯合航線服務、冰車運力和市場條件改善而受益。目前，由於市場不確定性導致產量預測下降，我們預計第一季和全年汽車銷售將下降。

We're optimistic around all grades of petroleum and chemicals for the year and for Q1, supported by share gains in projects like propane exports through Prince Rupert and the Greater Toronto Area fuel terminal. In fact, the GTA terminal is performing very well, and we're excited to see excellent progress on its Phase 2, which should receive its first shipments by September. Although we see strong demand for frac sand, we're more cautious on metals with uncertain North American demand and unfavorable iron ore export markets. In all, we're assuming just a slight uptick in metals and minerals in both Q1 and the year. Difficult to see any significant improvement in forest products this year, particularly as lumber continues to struggle with a sluggish market plus the threat of additional tariffs.

我們對今年及第一季所有等級的石油和化學品都持樂觀態度，這得益於透過魯珀特王子港和大多倫多地區燃料終端出口丙烷等項目的份額增長。事實上，GTA 終端的表現非常良好，我們很高興看到其第二階段取得了巨大的進展，預計將於 9 月收到第一批貨物。儘管我們看到對壓裂砂的強勁需求，但由於北美需求不確定且鐵礦石出口市場不利，我們對金屬更加謹慎。總體而言，我們預計第一季和全年金屬和礦物價格都會小幅上漲。今年林產品的情況很難出現明顯改善，尤其是木材市場持續低迷，加上額外關稅的威脅。

But we expect to see better panel and OSB demand and an increase in pulp and paper volume after Q1. We're expecting growth in Canadian met coal now operational Quintet line, but the sector will be somewhat tempered by a weaker US exports and utility demand for an overall site uptick. For Canadian grain, we see a stronger Q1 but softer Q2 and Q3 on a tougher comp, even with a slightly larger crop. We will face a Q1 headwind in potash due to a customer's terminal outage against a strong comp, but we should grow thereafter.

但我們預計第一季後板材和定向刨花板的需求將會增加，紙漿和紙張產量也會增加。我們預計目前營運的五重奏生產線上的加拿大冶金煤將實現成長，但該產業將受到美國出口減弱和公用事業需求整體上升的影響。對於加拿大穀物而言，我們預計第一季表現強勁，但第二季和第三季表現疲軟，且同期穀物產量略有增加。由於客戶的終端中斷，與強勁的同店銷售相比，我們將在第一季面臨鉀肥業務的阻力，但此後我們應該會實現成長。

The US program, on the other hand, should benefit from stronger domestic and export corn demand and new crush projects, particularly in the first half of the year. Let me close by underscoring we delivered more than 1% RTM growth in 2024 despite a very uneven macro environment and numerous external disruptions. And with these disruptions now in the rear-view mirror, the resiliency that Pat and Derek talked about, together with our commitment to efficient and reliable service, clearly resonated with our customers. We delivered record on-time performance to yards, and they rewarded us with our best-yet loyalty scores measured through our comprehensive Net Promoter Survey, all while earning same-store price ahead of rail inflation. That's what it's all about.

另一方面，美國的計劃應該會受益於更強勁的國內和出口玉米需求以及新的壓榨項目，尤其是在今年上半年。最後，我要強調的是，儘管宏觀環境非常不平衡且外部幹擾重重，但我們在 2024 年實現了超過 1% 的 RTM 成長率。現在這些中斷已經成為過去，帕特和德里克所談論的彈性以及我們對高效可靠服務的承諾顯然引起了客戶的共鳴。我們向貨場提供了創紀錄的準時交付，而貨場也通過全面的淨推薦值調查測量出了迄今為止最高的忠誠度分數，並同時以低於鐵路通脹水平的同店價格回報我們。這就是全部內容。

And with that, I'll pass it over to Ghislain.

說完這些，我會把話題交給吉斯蘭 (Ghislain)。

(spoken in foreign language) Turning to slide 14. Like Derek said, the quarter began with ideal operating conditions, which allowed the team to execute on solid demand. Obviously, volumes and costs were negatively impacted by the West Coast and Montreal ports labor-related outages. As we began working through the backlog following these outages in late November, winter weather came early in Western Canada and lasted for most of the rest of the quarter. Prolonged tier restrictions hampered our ability to clear the backlog at the West Coast terminals.

（以外語說）翻到第 14 張投影片。正如德里克所說，本季開始時的營運條件非常理想，這使得團隊能夠根據穩定的需求開展工作。顯然，西海岸和蒙特婁港口因勞工中斷而對貨運量和成本產生了負面影響。當我們在 11 月下旬開始處理停電後積壓的工作時，加拿大西部的冬季天氣提前到來，並持續了本季剩餘的大部分時間。長期的等級限制妨礙了我們清理西海岸碼頭積壓貨物的能力。

Some of that on-the-ground inventory as well as grain orders carried into the beginning of January. For the quarter, we reported adjusted EPS down 10% versus last year. The operating ratio increased by 330 basis point to 62.6%, and revenues were down 3% year-over-year. Let me provide you more details on some of the operating expense categories in the quarter, which I'll speak to on an exchange-adjusted basis. Labor was 7% higher than last year, mostly on account of general wage increases and higher payroll taxes.

部分實地庫存以及穀物訂單已延續到 1 月初。我們報告本季調整後的每股收益較去年同期下降 10%。營業比率上升330個基點至62.6%，營收年減3%。讓我向您提供本季度一些運營費用類別的更多詳細信息，我將在匯率調整的基礎上進行介紹。勞動成本比去年上漲了 7%，主要原因是整體薪資上漲和工資稅上漲。

We also saw the impact of less capital credits as well as higher short-term unproductive costs year-over-year due to the earlier onset of winter versus 2023. Fuel expense decreased 17% versus the same period last year due to a 15% decrease in price per gallon and a 4% lower gross ton-miles. The net impact of fuel prices was about $0.10 unfavorable to EPS and 80 basis points of the OR in the quarter. Purchased services and materials increased 6% driven by higher material, repairs and maintenance and winter-related costs like snow clearing. Other expenses rose 17% mainly as a result of the annual true-up of our legal claims provision.

我們也看到，由於 2023 年冬季來得較早，資本信貸減少，以及短期非生產性成本較去年同期增加。由於每加侖價格下降 15% 且總噸英里數下降 4%，燃料費用與去年同期相比下降了 17%。燃料價格的淨影響對本季的每股盈餘 (EPS) 和營業利潤 (OR) 造成了約 0.10 美元的不利影響，且減少了 80 個基點。由於材料、維修​​和維護以及清雪等冬季相關成本的增加，購買服務和材料增加了 6%。其他費用上漲了 17%，主要是由於我們每年對法律索賠準備金進行核實。

Turning to our full-year results on Slide 15. We delivered an adjusted EPS of 2% lower than last year on a 1% revenue increase. Our operating ratio was 62.9%, up 210 basis point versus last year. On an exchange-adjusted basis, labor rose 8% for the full year on account of general wage increases, higher average head count and higher pension expense. Purchased services and material increased by 2% versus last year mostly due to higher material and repair costs as well as higher incident-related expenses.

我們來看第 15 張投影片上的全年業績。我們調整後的每股盈餘比去年同期下降了 2%，但營收成長了 1%。我們的營業比率為62.9%，比去年上升了210個基點。經匯率調整後，由於整體薪資上漲、平均員工人數增加和退休金支出增加，全年勞動成本上漲了 8%。購買的服務和材料比去年增加了 2%，主要原因是材料和維修成本以及事故相關費用增加。

Full-year fuel expense was down 3% mainly on lower fuel prices. I want to remind you that the all-in impact of fuel prices for 2024 was unfavorable, around 100 basis points of the OR and about $0.35 of EPS. We generated close to $3.1 billion of free cash flow for the full year, which is about $800 million lower than last year, mainly due to higher capital expenditures and lower net cash from operating activities. Under our current share repurchase program, which runs from February 1, 2024, through January 31, 2025, we have purchased over 13 million shares for just over $2.3 billion as at the end of December.

全年燃料費用下降 3%，主要由於燃料價格下降。我想提醒你，2024 年燃料價格的整體影響是不利的，OR 約為 100 個基點，EPS 約為 0.35 美元。我們全年產生了近31億美元的自由現金流，比去年低約8億美元，主要原因是資本支出增加和營運活動淨現金減少。根據我們目前的股票回購計劃，該計劃從 2024 年 2 月 1 日持續到 2025 年 1 月 31 日，截至 12 月底，我們已回購了超過 1,300 萬股，價值略高於 23 億美元。

Moving to slide 16. Let me provide some visibility to 2025. We believe the economy for the year will slightly be better than last year, assuming approximately 1% growth in North American industrial production. Having said this, we're monitoring the tariff situation closely. Fortunately, there is labor stability for us and our core partners, which will support international intermodal growth, particularly through Western Canadian gateways. With this in mind and along with our CN-specific growth initiatives, we expect volumes in terms of RTMs to be in the range of low to mid-single digits.

移至投影片 16。讓我對 2025 年做出一些展望。我們認為，今年的經濟狀況將略好於去年，預計北美工業生產將成長 1% 左右。話雖如此，我們正在密切關注關稅情況。幸運的是，我們和我們的核心合作夥伴擁有穩定的勞動力，這將支持國際聯運的成長，特別是透過加拿大西部門戶。考慮到這一點，並結合我們針對 CN 的成長計劃，我們預計 RTM 的銷量將處於低位到中位數個位數範圍內。

We maintained much of our manifest train package, and we have room on our current intermodal trains. This gives us opportunities to improve operating leverage as volumes pick up through 2025. We have a strong foreign exchange for the year of around $0.70 and WTI of USD70 to USD80 a barrel. In this environment, we expect to deliver 10% to 15% EPS growth in 2025 versus 2024. We are reaffirming our 2024 to 2026 guidance of high single-digit EPS CAGR.

我們保留了大部分的貨運列車包，我們目前的聯運列車上還有空間。隨著 2025 年銷售回升，這將為我們提高經營槓桿提供機會。我們的年度外匯存底強勁，約為 0.70 美元，WTI 價格為每桶 70 至 80 美元。在這種環境下，我們預計 2025 年的每股盈餘將比 2024 年成長 10% 至 15%。我們重申 2024 年至 2026 年高個位數每股收益複合年增長率的指導方針。

We have intentionally built a level of resiliency for extreme weather and traffic volume volatility into our guidance. Specifically on tariffs in our guidance, we've accounted for a range of scenarios. However, we assume tariffs would not cause a recession. Our effective tax rate is expected to continue to be in the range of 24% to 25%. Our CapEx for 2025 will be around $3.4 billion net of customer contributions.

我們在指導中刻意建立了一定程度的應對極端天氣和交通量波動的彈性。具體來說，在我們的指導中，我們考慮了一系列的情況。然而，我們假設關稅不會導致經濟衰退。我們的有效稅率預計將繼續在 24% 至 25% 之間。扣除客戶貢獻，我們 2025 年的資本支出將達到約 34 億美元。

In terms of shareholder distributions, we are pleased to announce that our Board of Directors approved a 5% dividend increase for 2025. This represents the 29th consecutive year of dividend increase since the 1995 IPO. The Board also approved a new share buyback program of up to 20 million shares through a normal course issuer bid from February 4, 2025, to February 3, 2026. We will continue to execute our share buybacks to manage to our 2.5 times adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage target.

在股東分配方面，我們很高興地宣布，董事會批准將 2025 年的股息提高 5%。這是該公司自 1995 年 IPO 以來連續第 29 年增加股息。董事會也批准了一項新的股票回購計劃，回購金額至多為 2,000 萬股，回購期限為 2025 年 2 月 4 日至 2026 年 2 月 3 日，透過正常發行人要約回購。我們將繼續執行股票回購，以實現 2.5 倍調整後債務與調整後 EBITDA 槓桿率的目標。

In conclusion, let me reiterate a few points. We're well into winter, but the network is very fluid. With labor issues behind us, we expect volume growth to pick up from last year. We have aligned our resources and have capacity to accommodate growth at low incremental costs. We are committed to creating long-term value for our shareholders.

最後，我想重申幾點。我們已經進入冬季，但網路仍然非常流暢。隨著勞動力問題的解決，我們預計銷售成長將比去年有所回升。我們已經整合了資源，有能力以較低的增量成本適應成長。我們致力於為股東創造長期價值。

Let me pass it back to Tracy.

讓我將其轉交回給 Tracy。

Thanks, Ghislain. Krista, we'll go to questions.

謝謝，吉斯蘭。克里斯塔，我們來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Cowen.

（操作員指示） Cherilyn Radbourne，TD Cowen。

With respect to the volume outlook for 2025, thank you for the breakdown provided in the prepared remarks. I was hoping we could drill down a bit more on the 1/3 that relates to regaining volumes lost due to labor disruption in 2024, which as, Remi, you indicated, would naturally skew towards US-bound international intermodal traffic. To what extent have you seen market share recovery on the Canadian West Coast year-to-date? And what visibility do you have to further recovery as we move through the March, April maritime contracting period?

關於 2025 年的銷售展望，感謝您在準備好的評論中提供的細分。我希望我們能夠更深入地研究與 2024 年恢復因勞工中斷而損失的運量有關的 1/3，正如雷米 (Remi) 所指出的，這自然會偏向前往美國的國際多式聯運。今年迄今為止，您看到加拿大西海岸的市場份額恢復到了何種程度？隨著我們進入三月和四月的海事承包期，您對進一步復甦有何展望？

Part of the challenge that we faced heading into the year was that the path of recovery following the work stoppage in the summer was hindered by the two-week port strike in the West in November. And we said at the time that the goal was to regain US mix. And so that set us back a little bit, and we kind of missed the peak a little bit.

我們在進入今年之際面臨的挑戰之一是，11 月西部地區為期兩週的港口罷工阻礙了夏季停工後的復甦之路。我們當時說過，我們的目標是重新奪回美國的市佔率。這讓我們稍微落後了一些，我們有點錯過了巔峰。

So what we see ahead of us is that we're off to a good start in January. We are talking to customers to encourage them to come back and to grow. But we think we're going to see most of it after the first quarter after we get through Chinese Lunar New Year, and then we can build from there. I will point out on the normalization that if you look at what we did in the first half of last year, we were doing really, really well. And so that's what we mean by normalizing out for the year.

因此，我們預期一月份我們會有一個好的開始。我們正在與客戶交談，鼓勵他們回來並共同發展。但我們認為，在中國農曆新年過後的第一季度，我們將會看到大部分的成長勢頭，然後我們可以從那裡開始發展。關於正常化，我要指出的是，如果你看看我們去年上半年的表現，你會發現我們做得非常非常好。這就是我們所說的年度標準化。

You compare sort of how we did in the second half of the year versus the first, I think when you fill that hole, that's the path that we see going forward to build on.

你可以比較我們下半年和上半年的表現，我認為，當你填補這個空缺時，這就是我們未來發展的道路。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

So Tracy, I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned there was about 200 basis points or so of discrete headwinds, I think, to 2024. So I guess, maybe as we look at 2025 and you think about the guidance that you laid out, can you talk a little bit about what you think you can do from an OR perspective? And I guess maybe if there's any help that you can kind of help us with in terms of shaping that first half, second half or maybe even first quarter. Just want to get a sense of how to -- what sort of comes back quickly to the network from an OR perspective and maybe what you can get from an incremental margin perspective on the growth?

所以 Tracy，我想在您準備好的發言中，您提到到 2024 年大約會有 200 個基點左右的離散阻力。所以我想，也許當我們展望 2025 年並思考您所製定的指導方針時，您能否從 OR 的角度談談您認為您可以做些什麼？我想，如果您能為我們塑造上半年、下半年甚至第一季提供任何幫助的話。只是想了解如何——從 OR 的角度來看，什麼樣的回報能夠快速回報網絡，以及從增量利潤的角度來看，您可以從成長中獲得什麼？

Okay. Chris, thanks. Stacy is going at me across the table. I'm going to try and do this in a way that we're not providing guidance on OR as we go forward. So if you look backwards, as I said, you look back to last year, we've quantified the impact of the one-offs.

好的。克里斯，謝謝。史黛西正隔著桌子向我走來。我將嘗試以一種我們在前進的過程中不提供有關 OR 的指導的方式來做到這一點。所以如果你回顧過去，就像我說的，回顧去年，我們已經量化了一次性事件的影響。

Now that's including fuel -- the impact of fuel last year on the operating ratio on our margins. So as we look forward this year, we've got a clear path on labor. The railroad has and continues to run very well. We're looking to drive margin improvement. We've got the right conditions in place.

現在包括燃料——去年燃料對我們利潤率的營運比率的影響。因此，展望今年，我們在勞動力問題上已經取得了明確的進展。這條鐵路一直運作良好。我們希望提高利潤率。我們已經具備了適當的條件。

The railroad is returning back to the natural operating cadence that we would have had without the -- without labor disruptions. And that's going to restore a level of margin. We have resized the resource base and are focused on driving the growth at a low incremental margin. We have, as you heard Pat say, some productivity efforts in place that will offset some of the inflationary impacts in different parts of the company. And then Remi talked about targeting pricing above our inflation.

鐵路正在恢復自然運作節奏，就像沒有勞工中斷一樣。這將恢復一定程度的利潤。我們已經調整了資源基礎，並專注於以較低的增量利潤率推動成長。正如帕特所說，我們已經採取了一些生產力措施，以抵消公司不同部門的部分通膨影響。然後雷米談到了高於通膨率的目標定價。

So the accumulation of those is going to drive year-over-year margin improvement. And since the 200 basis points is out there, you're going to see us recapture that. How far we can get with the rest of it is really going to depend on volume. We get more leverage at high volume levels. We get less leverage at lower volume levels.

因此，這些因素的累積將推動利潤率逐年提高。由於 200 個基點已經存在，你會看到我們重新奪回這個目標。剩下的部分我們能走多遠實際上取決於數量。我們在高交易量水平上獲得了更多的槓桿。在較低的交易量水準下，我們獲得的槓桿作用較小。

And so that's the way I'd kind of lay it out for you. I hope that helps.

這就是我為您闡述的方式。我希望這能有所幫助。

It does.

是的。

Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

Fadi Chamoun，BMO 資本市場。

So I wanted to ask about the embedded pricing in the guidance and to what degree it incorporates kind of the higher level of disruption that we've seen in the last several years in terms of fires and other acts of God and kind of disruption because of weather. I think your -- the network is kind of prone more than maybe others to these kind of things. And I wonder to what degree you really look at that, and ultimately, contemplate a pricing scenario that offsets that.

所以我想問指導意見中嵌入的定價，以及它在多大程度上包含了我們在過去幾年中看到的更高程度的破壞，例如火災和其他自然災害，以及由於天氣。我認為你的網路比其他網路更容易出現此類問題。我想知道您在多大程度上真正考慮了這一點，並最終考慮了一個可以抵消這一點的定價方案。

So as we think --

我們認為--

Ultimately challenge it, yes.

是的，最終挑戰它。

Okay, Fadi. Let me take a first run at that, then I'm going to ask Remi for some comments. So we have made some provisions in our plan for the kinds of things that you've seen happen over the last few years, whether it be fire, whether it be other kind of natural occurrences. The fundamentals as we look forward, would suggest that with these kinds of things are going to happen. So we've embedded it in our plan.

好的，法迪。讓我先嘗試一下，然後我會向雷米徵求一些意見。所以我們在計劃中針對過去幾年所發生的各種事件做了一些準備，無論是火災還是其他自然災害。展望未來，基本面顯示這些事情將會發生。因此我們將其嵌入到我們的計劃中。

When we think about our pricing in general, Remi's mandate is to price to market, and that may be ahead of the rail cost inflation. And so when we -- as we think about the natural disasters that have happened, we find that it is impacting our customers' perspective of their ability to continue to operate. It's really not relative to pricing that Remi puts in the marketplace, if I'm understanding your question.

當我們考慮整體定價時，Remi 的任務是根據市場定價，而這可能領先於鐵路成本通膨。因此，當我們思考已經發生的自然災害時，我們發現它正在影響我們的客戶對其繼續營運能力的看法。如果我理解你的問題的話，這實際上與 Remi 在市場上的定價無關。

But Remi, do you have anything to add to that?

但是雷米，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think just to echo Tracy, we did well in 2024 to price ahead of rail inflation. And that's the mission going forward for this year. Maybe Ghislain, you want to comment on inflation.

我認為，與 Tracy 的觀點一致，我們在 2024 年的定價方面做得很好，領先鐵路通膨。這就是我們今年的使命。也許吉斯蘭，你想評論通貨膨脹。

Yes. Yes. I mean, when you look at inflation, Fadi, when you look at the labor, which is our biggest cost, is about 3%. And I would say that, therefore, when -- we here at CN, our rail inflation is in the 3%-ish is what we have.

是的。是的。我的意思是，當你考慮通貨膨脹時，法迪，當你考慮勞動力時，也就是我們最大的成本，大約是 3%。因此我想說，在加拿大國家鐵路公司，我們的鐵路通膨率處於 3% 左右。

And that will incorporate, of course, any of the costs associated with the fires or the other things, Fadi. We hope that answered your question.

當然，這將包括與火災或其他因素相關的任何費用，法迪。我們希望這能回答您的問題。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

So I want to try to understand sort of maybe the building blocks of the earnings guide. So if we just take some of like the discrete things like FX and maybe lapping some of the headwinds from last year, maybe pension, like how much is like sort of, for lack of a better word, sort of like in the bag from like an earnings growth standpoint? Like is there any way to quantify that? And then I would assume after last year, last couple of years, maybe you've added in some cushion.

所以我想嘗試了解收入指南的構成要素。因此，如果我們只考慮一些離散因素，例如外匯，也許可以克服去年的一些不利因素，例如養老金，比如說，多少有點像，找不到更好的詞來形容，有點像盈利增長的角度？有什麼方法可以量化這一點嗎？然後我會假設在去年、過去幾年之後，也許你已經增加一些緩衝。

But like is there any way to think about how much cushion or assumption about some of the bad things from last year repeating again? I just -- I want to try to get confidence in this earnings guidance after the last couple of years.

但是，有沒有辦法考慮一下，對於去年的一些不好的事情再次重演，有多少緩衝或假設呢？我只是——我想在過去幾年之後嘗試對這個盈利預測恢復信心。

So the guidance reflects, as we've outlined, the range in volumes, Scott, as well as the variability that we think we could see in fuel and FX outcomes. So we've built that in. We just -- we built in some provision for the kinds of operating conditions we can find ourselves in over different seasons as well. So as far as cushion, I think it really -- what's really going to drive it up or down at the end of the day is going to be volumes, right, all kinds of things that can impact the volumes.

因此，正如我們所概述的，該指引反映了數量範圍，斯科特，以及我們認為可能在燃料和外匯結果中看到的變化。因此我們將其內置進去了。我們只是──我們也為不同季節可能遇到的營運條件製定了一些規定。因此就緩衝而言，我認為，最終真正推動其上漲或下跌的將是成交量，對的，所有可能影響成交量的因素。

But what we've given you is a view into how we made up our our low- to mid-single-digit volume growth expectation, 50% of it is CN-specific. 50%, I guess, Remi, or a little bit more is our CN-specific initiatives. We have about 1/3 of it, as we said, that's the make-up of the -- from the labor disruptions last year. And then we are assuming at this point in time, a very modest lift in the economy. Now if the fundamentals are there such that we get a stronger economy, stronger consumer sentiment, you could see that be a little bit stronger. But as we built the guidance, those are the factors that we built into it.

但我們向您展示的是我們如何實現低至中等個位數的銷售成長預期，其中 50% 是 CN 特有的。我猜 50%，Remi，或更多一點是我們針對 CN 的舉措。正如我們所說，其中約有三分之一是由去年的勞工糾紛造成的。然後我們假設此時經濟將出現非常溫和的成長。現在，如果基本面存在，即經濟更加強勁，消費者信心更加強勁，你會看到它會稍微強勁一些。但當我們制定指導時，這些就是我們考慮到的因素。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Walter Spracklin。

So Ghislain, this one's for you. Just curious, you've -- with the buyback, you've been a bit variable with it in terms of ramping it up and holding it back. Curious, you indicated that you're going to use the buyback to manage the 2.5 times leverage. Is there any avenue -- are you budgeting a certain amount, therefore, that we can plug in, in terms of dollars targeted for your buyback this year?

所以，吉斯蘭，這個是給你的。只是好奇，對於回購，你在增加和抑制回購方面有點變化無常。好奇的是，您表示您將使用回購來管理 2.5 倍的槓桿。有沒有什麼途徑——您是否預算了一定數額，以便我們可以在今年的回購目標金額方面插入？

And is there any avenue where you would consider, because I know a number of your peers are now moving more in the 2.75 range or even higher, is there any avenue where you would consider using a little bit more of your leverage given the resiliency that the railroads have exhibited here to go with a higher leverage and a higher buyback while still maintaining your current ratings? Any consideration there?

您是否會考慮一些途徑，因為我知道您的許多同行現在的收益率都在2.75 甚至更高的範圍內，您是否會考慮一些途徑，考慮到收益率曲線的彈性，您是否會考慮使用更多槓桿？有什麼考慮嗎？

Listen, the use of the balance sheet is something that we debate, we debate internally, we debate with our Board. I think at this point, we have decided to be prudent. So that's why we're going to continue to manage our balance sheet to the 2.5 times leverage. We think that this is the right place to be.

聽著，資產負債表的使用是我們正在討論的事情，我們內部討論，我們與董事會討論。我認為在這一點上，我們決定採取謹慎態度。所以這就是為什麼我們要繼續將我們的資產負債表管理到2.5倍槓桿率。我們認為這就是正確的位置。

We purposely did not provide a budget. So I think we -- you can do the math yourself and get to a number. And we like buybacks, as you know, Walter, because this is something that we can step it up. We can slow it down. And we will continue to debate the use of the balance sheet. But at this point, I think we're very comfortable with continuing to manage it to 2.5 times.

我們故意沒有提供預算。所以我認為我們——你可以自己算算並得出一個數字。沃爾特，正如你所知，我們喜歡回購，因為這是我們可以加強的事情。我們可以減慢它的速度。我們將繼續討論資產負債表的用途。但目前，我認為我們很樂意繼續將其控制在 2.5 倍。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Maybe if I could follow up on Scott's question a little earlier. You talked about the driver. Maybe can you talk about the drivers to the top and bottom end of the outlook was just laying through in there, some tariff comments? Is that tariff-related some of the ups and downs? Is it -- Tracy, you mentioned volumes?

也許我可以早一點跟進斯科特的問題。您談到了司機。也許您能談談前景頂部和底部的驅動因素，以及一些關稅評論嗎？這是否與關稅有關？是嗎——特蕾西，你提到了數量？

Just trying to decipher, what are the drivers there? And then thoughts on first quarter comp, maybe just given all the comments on weather that we heard today, is -- does that make first quarter maybe a bit more aggressive than normal seasonality? Do you expect normal seasonality given what is traditionally a tough quarter? I mean, just how we should think about maybe some of the near-term stuff? And then just what's the advantage of throwing in the economic growth there at this point, just given what we went through last year?

只是想弄清楚，那裡的驅動程式是什麼？然後對第一季的比較思考，也許只是考慮到我們今天聽到的所有關於天氣的評論 - 這是否會使第一季比正常季節性更具侵略性？考慮到傳統上這是一個艱難的季度，您是否預計會出現正常的季節性變化？我的意思是，我們應該如何考慮一些近期的事情？那麼，考慮到我們去年所經歷的情況，現在增加經濟成長有什麼好處呢？

What was -- Tracy, maybe just your thoughts on why you felt you wanted to add that in as opposed to maybe being more conservative.

是什麼——特蕾西，也許你只是想知道為什麼你覺得你想添加這一點，而不是可能更加保守。

Thanks, Ken. So let me just start with the last on economic growth. We are assuming a very modest economic growth. Most of the growth that we are projecting comes from the recovery from last year's labor. It comes from CN-specific initiative, and so there's an upside if there is economic growth, but we're not assuming that at this point in our guidance.

謝謝，肯。那我先從最後一個話題——經濟成長——開始。我們假設經濟成長非常溫和。我們預計的大部分成長來自去年勞動力的復甦。它源自於 CN 特定的舉措，因此如果經濟成長，就會有上行空間，但目前我們並未在指引中假設這一點。

And then what's going to drive the guidance to the top end of the line is generally going to be volumes. And the tariffs are relevant, as Ghis said, primarily in that it will drive volumes. And though -- that's the way that what we're thinking about it. Ghis, do you have any comments on that?

那麼，推動指導價達到最高水準的一般就是銷售量。正如吉斯所說，關稅是相關的，主要在於它能推動銷售。儘管如此——這就是我們的想法。吉斯，您對此有什麼評論嗎？

Yeah. And as I said, Ken, in our remarks, I think that we -- our guidance is -- assumes a different range of scenarios, including various scenarios on tariffs, but as we said, does not assume that Canada would go in a recession. I think, to help you out a little bit on -- as we're assuming an FX of $0.70, which is the spot rate as we have it. I think Scott had a question on pension. Pension, if you look at this year, was -- in 2024, was a headwind of about $30 million.

是的。正如我所說，肯，在我們的評論中，我認為我們的指導是假設一系列不同的情景，包括各種關稅情景，但正如我們所說，我們不認為加拿大會陷入衰退。我想，為了幫助您一點——我們假設外匯為 0.70 美元，這是我們的現貨匯率。我認為斯科特對退休金有疑問。如果你看看今年的情況，那麼到 2024 年，退休金的逆風將達到約 3,000 萬美元。

Pension this year, in 2025, will be a tailwind of about $50 million, mostly all below the line. And then as Tracy said, a lot of it will be related to volumes.

今年（即 2025 年）的退休金將達到約 5,000 萬美元，其中大部分都低於標準線。正如 Tracy 所說，很多內容都與數量有關。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Question on the labor picture for you today. I think you described some of the actions you've been taking, but just trying to get a sense for where you're at from the context of earlier quarters referencing some imbalances that you had in the system in the sense of too many people in the East, not enough in the West. It sounds like you're still hiring. How far along are you in that process? Are you scaling back in all verticals right now?

今天要問您一個關於分娩圖片的問題。我認為你描述了你採取的一些行動，但只是想從前幾季的背景來了解你所處的情況，當時你提到了系統中存在的一些不平衡現象，即太多人東方已經足夠，西方還不夠。聽起來你們仍在招人。您目前進展到哪一步了？現在您正在縮減所有垂直領域的業務嗎？

Or maybe just a broader sense for that late picture today and how much more work you need to have to do.

或者可能只是對今天的後期情況有更廣泛的了解以及您還需要做多少工作。

Yes. No, Steve. I would say is right now, we have 800 people furloughed across the network. That's mostly T&E folks, but there is some mechanic folks in it that as teams work hard on from an efficiency point of view. We're watching that hiring very carefully.

是的。不，史蒂夫。我想說的是，現在我們整個網路有 800 名員工被迫休假。其中大部分是 T&E 人員，但其中也有一些機械人員，他們作為團隊從效率的角度努力工作。我們正在密切關注招聘情況。

And we took very decisive action last fall when we saw the volumes not coming where they needed to be when we got that intelligence with it. And then I'll maybe let Pat talk about the East to West movement of people.

去年秋天，當我們收到情報並發現貨物數量沒有達到應有的水平時，我們採取了非常果斷的行動。然後我可能會讓帕特談談從東到西的人口流動。

Yes. Thanks, Derek. So I would say that we continue to have the furloughed employees to draw from. But as I talk about the West particularly, we will continue to hire as needed to meet the growth in the West. We do have a smaller group of furloughed employees in the West to draw from if we see ourselves in a deficit for people.

是的。謝謝，德里克。所以我想說，我們將繼續招募休假員工。但當我特別談論西部時，我們將根據需要繼續招募以滿足西部的成長。如果我們發現人才短缺，我們可以從西部一小群被迫休假的員工中抽調人員。

And we do have the ability to move folks around within our Western region. So we have -- we'll continue to hire towards the needs and recall as we see needed, but we feel like we're positioned well to take all the growth in the West.

我們確實有能力在西部地區調動人員。因此，我們將繼續根據需要招募員工，並根據需要召回員工，但我們覺得我們已做好準備，可以承擔西部地區的所有成長。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

So Remi, I wanted to maybe dig into a couple of the CN-specific growth initiatives to try to see if we can bracket some numbers on 2 specific sets of projects. As you're thinking about the nat gas liquids opportunity off the West Coast, there's been a lot of investment there. Can you help us refresh our thinking on what kind of incremental volume should look like. And same question on the Janssen potash moment. I don't think there's anything in the guide for '25-'26, but I think it's a start-up in the three-year windows.

所以 Remi，我想深入研究幾個 CN 特定的成長計劃，看看我們是否可以將一些數字歸結為兩組特定的項目。當您考慮西海岸的天然氣液體機會時，您會發現那裡已經有大量投資。您能否幫助我們重新思考增量量應該是什麼樣的呢？關於詹森鉀肥的時刻也有同樣的問題。我認為指南中沒有針對 25-26 年的任何內容，但我認為這是三年內的一個創業計畫。

So if you kind of help us bracket what kind of incremental volume we're talking about there, that would be helpful.

因此，如果您能幫助我們概括我們所討論的增量量，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. Thanks for the question. For nat gas, a big chunk of the growth that will come -- obviously, it's incremental. The demand for sand is very strong. We saw a late pickup in the fourth quarter that helped us to do a little bit better than we expected.

是的。謝謝你的提問。對於天然氣而言，很大一部分的成長將是漸進。對沙子的需求非常強勁。我們在第四節後期有所回升，這幫助我們取得了比預期更好的成績。

First quarter also looks strong. The drillers are building terminals. So they're excited about the E&P programs that have for the year. The big lift for exports through Rupert is going to come when the AltaGas Vopak project comes to market. So the FID, that last year.

第一季看起來也很強勁。鑽井工人正在建造終端。因此，他們對今年的 E&P 計劃感到非常興奮。當 AltaGas Vopak 項目進入市場時，透過魯珀特的出口將迎來巨大提升。所以 FID 就是去年的。

So that's not a 2025 item, but it will be later into '26. So what we expect for growth in nat gas for this year is going to be incremental, and the big lift will come a little bit later. As far as the Jensen potash mine, construction continues. I was actually in Saskatoon a couple of weeks ago. Construction continues, but we're still waiting for details and announcements on that.

所以這不是 2025 年的產品，但會在 2026 年稍後推出。因此，我們預計今年天然氣產量將呈現漸進式成長，大幅成長將在稍後出現。至於詹森鉀礦，建設仍在持續。我幾週前實際上在薩斯卡通。施工仍在繼續，但我們仍在等待相關細節和公告。

That doesn't start until I believe it's Q3 of '26, if memory serves. So more on that. But that also will depend on a market share announcement, which hasn't been quite made yet.

如果我沒記錯的話，那要等到 26 年第三季才開始。對此有更多介紹。但這也取決於市場佔有率的公告，而目前該公告尚未公佈。

Can I get you to put a number on the big step-up in -- with AltaGas?

您能給我估算一下 AltaGas 的重大進步的具體數字嗎？

I don't have it in front of me, but I'd have to double-check and come back.

我面前沒有它，但我必須再檢查一下然後再回來。

Why don't we follow it up -- and Stacy can follow it up with you after the fact, if that's okay.

我們何不跟進一下——如果可以的話，史黛西可以在事後跟進你。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀的湯姆‧韋德維茲 (Tom Wadewitz)

Wanted to ask a labor question. I know -- I think you had one on kind of like where the labor is located and where -- moving it around a bit. But should we think head count being kind of flat as you absorb some of this volume if you're maybe at the lower end of the volume spectrum and also contemplated -- you mentioned you've got quite a bit of capacity -- at least some capacity available in the existing train network. And then also, I guess, just thinking about comp and benefits worker -- per worker. So kind of how do we think about the two primary pieces of the comp and benefits expense overall?

想問一個勞工問題。我知道 —— 我認為你對勞動力所在地以及 —— 稍微移動一下有一個概念。但是，我們是否應該認為，隨著你們吸收部分數量，人數會持平，如果你們可能處於數量範圍的低端，並且也考慮到——你提到你們有相當多的容量——至少現有列車網絡仍有一些可用容量。然後我想，只考慮每個工人的薪水和福利。那麼我們整體上應該如何看待薪資和福利費用的兩個主要部分呢？

Derek, why don't you take the first and, Ghis, you take the second.

德瑞克，你為什麼不選擇第一個，吉斯，你選擇第二個。

Like we said, it was 800 people sold across the network, obviously, it's more tilted to the east than the south. So in those two cases, we're really watching the hiring. We don't need to do that. We don't see line of sight to have to do that because we can recall those current people. As Pat said in the West, we're ready to handle that growth.

就像我們說的那樣，整個網路的銷量是 800 人，顯然，它更傾向於東部而不是南部。因此，在這兩種情況下，我們都在密切關注招募情況。我們沒必要這麼做。我們沒有必要這麼做，因為我們可以召回那些現任人員。正如帕特在西方所說的那樣，我們已經準備好應對這種增長。

We can recall some of those folks that are there. But we are looking at some targeted hiring in those places that growth may come. So I feel we're well positioned on the train package, to your point. We can grow to incremental costs of the manifest package and even with the intermodal package as some of that comes back. And I'll turn it to Ghis on the comp question.

我們可以回憶起當時在場的一些人。但我們正在考慮在可能實現成長的地方進行一些有針對性的招募。所以我覺得我們在火車套餐方面處於有利地位，正如你所說。我們可以增加清單包裹的增量成本，甚至可以增加聯運包裹的增加成本，因為其中一些成本會回來。我將把關於補償的問題轉交給 Ghis。

Yes. Tom, on the comp side, I mean, I'm happy to report that we did into agreement with our signals and communication people. And again, the pattern in Canada is 3%. So that's what we continue to assume.

是的。湯姆，在公司方面，我很高興地報告，我們確實與我們的訊號和通訊人員達成了一致。加拿大的比例也是 3%。所以我們繼續假設這一點。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的科納克‧古普塔 (Konark Gupta)。

Just want to come back to the customers, Remi. You mentioned you're trying to kind of bring it back. How difficult is it to bring them back to the network, especially with all the tariff noise and even potentially change of government in Canada? I mean, how are shippers thinking about this year?

只是想回到顧客身邊，雷米。您曾提到，您正在嘗試將其帶回來。將它們重新納入網路有多難，特別是在加拿大存在各種關稅噪音甚至可能發生政府更迭的情況下？我的意思是，托運人對今年有什麼看法？

Yes. The challenge -- Konark, thanks for the question. The challenge is that if you look back over the course of 2024, there's been a number of disruptions, labor disruptions in particular. And so the issue is making sure that we make Canadian gateways attractive. And so that's an ongoing process.

是的。挑戰－科納克，謝謝你的提問。挑戰在於，如果回顧 2024 年，會發現出現了許多混亂，尤其是勞動力混亂。所以問題在於確保我們讓加拿大的門戶具有吸引力。這是一個持續的過程。

As I say, we're working with the shipping lines, talking to the DCOs as well so that we can establish and sell the reliability of the gateways. The advantage that we have is we sell service, and we're excited to be able to sell that. You look at lights like Rupert. We like to say it's the fastest way from Shanghai to Chicago. And for customers who are looking to grow and need a reliable product, we think that sells very well.

正如我所說，我們正在與航運公司合作，並與 DCO 進行溝通，以便我們能夠建立和推銷網關的可靠性。我們的優勢在於我們銷售服務，我們很高興能夠銷售這項服務。你看著像魯伯特一樣的燈光。我們喜歡說這是從上海到芝加哥最快的路線。對於那些尋求發展並且需要可靠產品的客戶來說，我們認為該產品的銷售量非常好。

So I think it goes hand in hand. It's a process. It's about being with customers and rebuilding that credibility following a pretty bumpy 2024 from a labor perspective.

所以我認為它們是相輔相成的。這是一個過程。從勞工角度來看，這是為了與客戶站在一起，並在經歷了相當坎坷的 2024 年後重建信譽。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基 (Brandon Oglenski)。

Maybe I'll direct this at Derek or Pat or maybe both. I mean you guys had so much start and stop on the labor side last year and some disruption, I think even with some of your partners in Canada. How do you think about the operating plan and maybe even like engineer planning in 2025 relative to maybe what was a more challenging environment in '24?

也許我會把這事指向德瑞克或者派特，或者兩者。我的意思是，去年你們在勞工方面經歷了很多起起伏伏，出現了一些混亂，我想甚至你們在加拿大的一些合作夥伴也遇到了同樣的情況。您如何看待營運計畫？

So thanks for the question. I'll speak to that. I would say that it's the strength of our discipline to our scheduled operating model the way that we -- unfortunately, we got too much practice at it last year, but the ability to lay down the network in an organized manner so that start-up is very fast. We know exactly how to plan the resources against it. And we start up very quickly.

感謝您的提問。我會談這個。我想說，這是我們對預定營運模式的紀律約束的優勢，不幸的是，去年我們在這方面練習太多了，但我們有能力以有組織的方式鋪設網絡，以便啟動非常快。我們確切地知道如何針對此來規劃資源。我們很快就開始行動了。

As you can see in our performance when we had those disruptions, we rebound very quickly. The network velocity returns, the car miles, the car velocity returns. Creating that's a credit to all the hard work we've done around the plan, I would say, with fewer disruptions expected. The work that we've done a lot around our engineering team is standardizing the composition of work gangs and really becoming disciplined around our work blocks. So we expect those gangs to make -- they are already making better use of the time that they get.

正如你所看到的，當我們遇到這些幹擾時，我們很快就恢復了。網路速度恢復了，汽車行駛里程恢復了，汽車速度也恢復了。我想說，這項成績的取得歸功於我們為執行該計劃所付出的所有艱苦努力，預計幹擾會減少。我們的工程團隊已經做了很多工作，包括標準化工作團隊的組成，以及真正使我們的工作區塊變得紀律嚴明。因此我們希望這些團夥能夠更好地利用他們所得到的時間。

They are starting on time, and we expect to bring the unit cost down for the work that they do. So with fewer disruptions expected, we do anticipate seeing our productivity continue to improve, particularly with the engineering department.

他們準時開始工作，我們希望降低他們所做工作的單位成本。因此，隨著預期中斷的減少，我們確實預期我們的生產力將繼續提高，特別是工程部門。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維‧尚克 (Ravi Shanker)。

So obviously, a lot of noise with tariffs and who knows how things are going to go. But it seems like we are settling in for kind of prolonged disruption in global supply chains and moving to a multipolar world. So how are you thinking about long-term investment plans for Prince Rupert and Halifax and some of the international intermodal infrastructure here in -- are you hearing from customers that are changing their long-term plans? Are they putting stuff on hold? Or how do we think that builds out?

顯然，關稅問題引發了許多爭議，誰知道事情將會如何發展。但看起來我們正面臨全球供應鏈長期中斷和世界轉向多極化的局面。那麼您如何考慮對魯珀特王子港和哈利法克斯港以及這裡的一些國際多式聯運基礎設施的長期投資計劃——您是否聽說過客戶正在改變他們的長期計劃？他們是在擱置一些事情嗎？或者我們認為這會如何發展？

Well, one of the things that we know for sure is we look at the environment around us is that there will be a high premium placed on being one. And so as we put our plan together this year, we thought through a number of different -- of those scenarios and others and how we would respond to it. And we're pretty confident in our plan. But Remi, do you have other comments?

嗯，我們可以肯定的事情之一是，我們觀察周圍的環境就會發現，成為一個合格的人才將受到高度重視。因此，當我們制定今年的計劃時，我們考慮了許多不同的情況——這些情況和其他情況以及我們將如何應對。我們對我們的計劃非常有信心。但是雷米，您還有其他評論嗎？

What I'd say is that in both the cases that you pointed out, in Halifax and Rupert, there's plenty of room to grow. So investing further in the gateways for the railways is -- we're already investing pretty significantly actually in Rupert. So we're adding bridge capacity to improve the flow. And there's a lot of additional investments that our customers are making in Rupert. So there is room to grow, both Rupert and Halifax.

我想說的是，在您所指出的哈利法克斯和魯珀特這兩個案例中，都有很大的發展空間。因此，進一步投資鐵路門戶——我們實際上已經在魯珀特進行了大量投資。因此，我們正在增加橋樑容量以改善流量。我們的客戶在魯伯特進行了大量額外投資。因此，魯伯特和哈利法克斯都還有成長空間。

Halifax had a bit of a tough year because of the Red Sea. But from our perspective, those assets fit very well into the network, and they help support service reliability to customers. And that's what's really important.

由於紅海的影響，哈利法克斯今年過得有點艱難。但從我們的角度來看，這些資產非常適合網絡，並有助於支援客戶的服務可靠性。這才是真正重要的。

Benoit Poirier, Desjardins Capital Markets.

Benoit Poirier，德斯雅爾丹資本市場。

Just to come back on FX, obviously, thanks for the assumptions you're targeting $0.70 for 2025. So I understand that it could represent a tailwind of about $0.15 on EPS. But I was curious from a debt standpoint in terms of leverage, given the further FX depreciation, just wondering in terms of leverage, how we should be thinking in Q1, whether given the U.S. debt and also given the attractive Canadian dollar, just curious if you have received more inbound calls from shipping line that are interested to engage in discussion, especially that labor issues are behind. Just wondering if it could attract some traffic north of the board for the FX.

回到外匯問題，顯然，感謝您提出的 2025 年目標為 0.70 美元的假設。因此我的理解是，這可能會為每股收益帶來約 0.15 美元的順風。但我很好奇，從債務角度來看，考慮到外匯進一步貶值，我們應該如何考慮第一季的槓桿率，考慮到美國債務和有吸引力的加元，我只是好奇您接到了更多來自航運公司的來電，他們有興趣參與討論，尤其是討論勞工議題。只是想知道它是否能吸引一些來自 FX 北部的流量。

Maybe, Benoit, I'll start and then I'll turn it over to you, Remi, on the second piece. So on the FX, you're right. I mean it has an impact on the debt because a lot of our debt is in US dollar-denominated, and therefore, it has an impact on the leverage. But the sensitivity is very small.

也許，Benoit，我先開始，然後我會把第二部分交給你，Remi。因此，關於 FX，你是對的。我的意思是它會對債務產生影響，因為我們的許多債務都是以美元計價的，因此它會對槓桿率產生影響。但靈敏度非常小。

If I recollect, I think every cent, I think, has an impact of $0.02 on the debt. So it's -- and we're going to take that into consideration as we manage our balance sheet to continue to remain at 2.5 times. Now sometimes we can move up a little bit. As you know, we finished the year, we are at 2.6. But we will manage our balance sheet, and we will take that into consideration.

如果我沒記錯的話，我認為每一分錢都會對債務產生 0.02 美元的影響。所以，我們將在管理資產負債表時考慮到這一點，繼續保持在 2.5 倍的水平。現在有時我們可以稍微進步一點。如你所知，我們今年的成績是 2.6。但我們會管理我們的資產負債表，並會考慮到這一點。

But it has a very small sensitivity to deleverage. Maybe Remi, on the second piece.

但它對去槓桿的敏感度非常小。也許是雷米 (Remi)，第二件作品。

Yes. I think what I'd say (spoken in foreign language) is, I mean, obviously, the geopolitical environment is a little bit all out throughout, and currencies are obviously reflecting the strength of the U.S. dollar. I don't necessarily tie inbounds to FX as far as shipping line in tisco. I tie it to service reliability.

是的。我想說的是（用外語說），我的意思是，顯然地緣政治環境總體上有點失衡，貨幣顯然反映了美元的強勢。就太鋼的航運線路而言，我不一定將入站貨物與外匯聯繫起來。我將其與服務可靠性聯繫起來。

And the other sort of thing that's changing is that there are reshaping alliances in the OSM world. And so that is opening up some opportunities for us as well.

另一個正在發生的變化是 OSM 世界中的聯盟正在重塑。這也為我們帶來了一些機會。

Jon Chapelle, Evercore ISI.

喬恩‧查佩爾 (Jon Chapelle)，Evercore ISI。

Derek and Pat, I think we've covered the labor resources ad nauseam at this point. But there's other line items like purchase services, equipment rents, casualty and other, et cetera. You've had this big pull-down in volume. You have this anticipation of the second half recovery, a lot of uncertainty. How do you thread the needle on matching the resources to kind of your exit rate '24 and then also your ambitions for the second half of '25 while making sure you still have the right capacity and starting to get some incremental margin from that in the back half of the year?

德里克和帕特，我想我們現在已經充分討論了勞動力資源問題。但還有其他項目，如購買服務、設備租金、意外傷害和其他等等。您的音量已經大幅下降。您對下半年的復甦抱持期待，但存在著許多不確定性。你如何平衡資源與你 24 年的退出率以及 25 年下半年的目標，同時確保你仍然擁有適當的能力，並開始從中獲得一些增量利潤？

I'll take that. It's Pat. So I would say this, that we made the decisions that we had to make as it relates to resources the last few quarters. We had ramped up to take on the volume that we expected. And when that didn't materialize, we had our disruptions and clearly other factors.

我接受。是帕特。所以我想說的是，我們在過去幾季做出了與資源相關的決定。我們已經加大力度，達到了預期的業務量。當這個目標未能實現時，我們就會遭遇幹擾，而且顯然還有其他因素。

I would say this, that as we look at the assets from cars, locomotives and people, as Derek pointed out, we have this 120-plus furloughs in transportation. We have almost 100 in mechanical furloughed. We have well over 120 locomotives in storage. And our car fleet is very productive. We are year-over-year as productive from a car miles per car day standpoint with the car fleet.

我想說的是，正如德里克指出的那樣，當我們從汽車、機車和人員的資產角度來看時，我們在交通運輸領域有 120 多個休假崗位。我們有近 100 名機械工人休假。我們庫存有超過 120 台機車。我們的車隊效率很高。從每天每輛車行駛的英里數來看，我們的車隊的生產效率與去年同期相同。

So we have laid up cars as needed, too, so as to not congest network. So we feel really good about where we are from a resourcing standpoint to continue to pick up the volume that's out there that we see that thus far in the quarter and the year is solid.

因此，我們也根據需要儲備了車輛，以免造成網路擁塞。因此，從資源角度來看，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意，我們將繼續提高目前的資源供應量，就本季度迄今為止和今年的情況來看，我們的資源供應量是穩健的。

Jon, let me just come in over top of that. The guys are doing a great job, but we're managing our expenses very tightly as we come into this year. But we do have a plan as well of how we would flex up as the volume grows if and when that happens. And so they've been working very hard at that. And I think we're in a good position, but very tight as we start the year, loosen up if the volume arrives as the year unfolds.

喬恩，讓我從那邊過去。這些人都做得很好，但是今年我們會嚴格控制開支。但我們確實也有一個計劃，即當這種情況發生時，我們將如何隨著交易量的增長而靈活應對。所以他們一直為此感到非常努力。我認為我們目前處於一個很好的位置，但是在年初時我們的限制非常嚴格，如果隨著時間的推移產量增加，我們的限制就會放鬆。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

丹尼爾伊姆布羅、史蒂芬斯。

I know we've talked through the volume outlook a lot, but maybe one more on the revenue side. Just on the mix, the international intermodal, I think you mentioned it will be the fastest-growing volume piece. I think that's going to be a negative for revenue per RTM this year. But when you look to the volume outlook on slide 12, can you just talk through the other puts and takes on mix and then maybe mix within mix as you see the business developing this year, the visibility you have into market share wins? Just what are the headwinds and tailwinds we should be thinking about as we move through the year?

我知道我們已經多次討論過銷售前景，但也許我們再討論一下收入方面。就組合而言，國際聯運，我想您提到過它將是成長最快的部分。我認為這會對今年每 RTM 的收入產生負面影響。但是，當您查看幻燈片 12 上的銷售展望時，您能否談談其他的組合，然後根據您今年業務的發展情況，也許在組合中進行組合，您對市場份額的可見性如何？在這一年中，我們應該考慮哪些逆風和順風呢？

Specifically on intermodal or across the business?

具體來說，是關於多式聯運還是跨業務？

Across the business.

跨越整個業務。

Yes. Okay. Well, I would say that where we're doing well going to be in the petroleum and chemicals business for the projects that we talked about. So the fuel terminal in Toronto is one of them, the sand supporting the NGLs. So that's good.

是的。好的。嗯，我想說，就我們談論的項目而言，我們在石油和化學品業務方面做得很好。多倫多的燃料終端就是其中之一，沙子支撐著天然氣液體。這很好。

On grain, going off a very strong year, that's very competitive. But what we talked about, we see ahead of us here for the year. I think that on a revenue per RTM, I mean it's -- yes, I mean, there are some sectors that are doing sort of better than others. Where I see good tailwind is -- we're doing well on grain, as I said, petroleum and chemicals as well. Where there's probably a bit more headwinds in the sectors where there is lower demand, so like forest products is probably a little bit more the pressure and metals and minerals, I would say.

就穀物而言，今年的產量非常強勁，競爭非常激烈。但我們已經談論過，並預見了今年的前景。我認為，就每 RTM 的收入而言，我的意思是——是的，有些行業的表現比其他行業更好。我看到的有利因素是——我們在穀物、石油和化學品方面都做得很好。在需求較低的行業，可能面臨更大的阻力，所以我認為像林業產品、金屬和礦物等行業面臨的壓力可能更大一些。

Thanks, Remi. Dan, let me just add something to that. You mentioned the growth that we're expecting in international intermodal. We built a portfolio, our book of business that fits our network and that we know that we can run efficiently and can drive value to the bottom line. So we like that international business.

謝謝，雷米。丹，讓我補充一點。您提到了我們預期國際聯運將會成長。我們建立了一個投資組合，我們的業務簿適合我們的網絡，我們知道我們可以有效地運行，並且可以為底線帶來價值。所以我們喜歡國際業務。

It's not our highest-margin business, as you've said, but it leverages our network and our asset base in the right way, and it's a really important part of our business and our growth strategy. And in Remi's plan, it is -- it will be the biggest growth factor. And so the revenue per RTM will be driven mostly by that business. And so you'll see a downward push on revenue per RTM in international, but it is the right -- it will drive growth to our bottom line, and it's the right fit for our network.

正如您所說，它不是我們利潤最高的業務，但它以正確的方式利用了我們的網路和資產基礎，它是我們業務和成長策略中非常重要的一部分。在雷米的計劃中，它將成為最大的成長因素。因此，每 RTM 的收入主要取決於該業務。因此，您會看到國際每 RTM 收入有所下降，但這是正確的——它將推動我們的底線成長，並且非常適合我們的網路。

Ariel Rosa, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里爾·羅莎 (Ariel Rosa)。

It's Ben Moore on for Ari. Going back to Ken's question on seasonality. Your 1Q OR normal seasonality over the last 10 years has averaged a deterioration or an increase in OR of 400 basis points on average from 4Q to 1Q. Should we expect that -- or maybe at a low range more akin to 200 to 300 bps of the step-up given the tougher 4Q OR of 62.6%?

本·摩爾 (Ben Moore) 代替阿里上場。回到肯關於季節性的問題。在過去 10 年中，您的第一季 OR 正常季節性平均呈現從第四季度到第一季惡化或增加 400 個基點的趨勢。我們是否應該預期——或者考慮到更嚴格的第四季度 OR 值 62.6%，升息幅度可能會處於更接近 200 到 300 個基點的低點？

So thanks for the question. I think given the unusual nature of the year last year, where we had a pretty good first quarter position from a volume perspective for a strong second quarter and then we started to have the labor issues after that, this quarter is going to depend a little bit on how the winter plays out. But you'll -- I would expect you would see a more normalized Q1 and Q2 versus what you -- if you look backwards, and then a significant improvement year-over-year in Q3, Q4. But Ghis, you see the map on a month-to-month basis. Is that the way to think about it?

感謝您的提問。我認為，考慮到去年的特殊性，從銷售角度看，我們第一季的狀況相當不錯，第二季度也表現強勁，但之後我們開始遇到勞動力問題，所以本季度的情況將取決於看看冬天如何結束。但是，我預計，與過去相比，第一季和第二季將更加正常化，而第三季和第四季則將比去年同期顯著改善。但是吉斯，你可以按月查看地圖。是這樣思考嗎？

I think you've got it pretty well. Everything staying equal, I think from a seasonality standpoint, Q1 has always had the OR that's slightly the higher. Q4, typically, it depends on when the winter hits. And then the best OR quarters are typically Q2 and Q3. So obviously, 2024 was not normal with all of the noise that we encountered.

我認為你已經做得很好了。如果所有因素都保持不變，我認為從季節性的角度來看，Q1 的 OR 總是略高一些。Q4，通常取決於冬季何時到來。那麼最佳 OR 季通常是第二季和第三季。因此顯然，2024 年並不正常，我們遇到了這麼多噪音。

But this noise, we feel, is behind us. So 2025 should come back more to normal.

但我們感覺，這種噪音已經被拋在身後了。因此 2025 年應該會恢復正常。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的史蒂芬妮摩爾 (Stephanie Moore)。

This is Joe Hain on for Stephanie Moore. A lot has been asked. I guess I maybe wanted to ask on the Falcon Premium service maybe looking past the last year. So could you talk about customer acceptance for that product? Is adoption kind of where you would have expected it is?

這是喬·海因 (Joe Hain) 為斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore) 主持的節目。已經有很多問題了。我想我可能想問一下 Falcon Premium 服務，也許是回顧去年的情況。那麼您能談談客戶對該產品的接受度嗎？採用情況是否達到了您所期望的水平？

Or is customer demand so that's slower than what you would have thought? Maybe just some thoughts on Falcon Premium and what you're seeing on that.

還是客戶需求比您想像的慢？也許只是對 Falcon Premium 以及您對此看到的內容的一些想法。

Yes. I guess I'd start by saying that the product works really well. Derek and team and our partners are delivering the service offering that we sold. The challenge that we have is that it's a very competitive market, especially northbound out of Mexico. The truck lanes to the major destinations are fairly well established, and that's what we're fighting against.

是的。我想首先要說的是，該產品的效果確實非常好。德里克 (Derek) 和他的團隊以及我們的合作夥伴正在提供我們銷售的服務產品。我們面臨的挑戰是，這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場，尤其是墨西哥以北的市場。通往主要目的地的卡車通道已經相當完善，而這正是我們所抗爭的。

So we continue to work on it with our partners at UP and Ferromex to continue to grow it. And so I expect that we'll keep growing that incrementally over the course of the year. But there's opportunity and upside there. It's just a really -- it's a tough market.

因此，我們將繼續與 UP 和 Ferromex 的合作夥伴一起努力，繼續發展它。因此我預計我們在今年內將繼續逐步成長。但其中仍存在機會和上升空間。這確實是一個艱難的市場。

Okay. Thanks, Remi, and thanks, Christa. Thanks to everyone on the call for joining us. I think as Derek said, 2024 was a hell of a year, but we're turning into 2025 now at full speed to execute our growth plans and to drive that growth to the bottom line. So we'll see you all very soon. Thank you.

好的。謝謝，雷米，謝謝，克里斯塔。感謝電話會議中所有人的參與。我認為正如德里克所說，2024 年是糟糕的一年，但我們現在正全速邁向 2025 年，以執行我們的成長計劃並推動這種成長達到底線。我們很快就會見到你們。謝謝。

The conference call has now ended. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect

電話會議現已結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接