Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Christa, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Stacy Alderson, CN's Assistant Vice President of Investor Relations.

    早安.我叫克麗斯塔,今天由我來為您接聽電話。(操作員指示)此時,我想將電話轉交給加拿大國家鐵路公司投資者關係助理副總裁史黛西·奧爾德森。

  • Ladies and gentlemen, Ms. Alderson.

    女士們、先生們,奧爾德森女士。

  • Stacy Alderson - Assistant Vice-President, Investor Relations

    Stacy Alderson - Assistant Vice-President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Christa. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for CN's third quarter financial and operating results conference call. Joining us on the call today are Tracy Robinson, our President and CEO; Pat Whitehead, our Chief Operations Officer; Janet Drysdale, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Ghislain Houle, our Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝你,克麗斯塔。歡迎各位。感謝您參加中國國家鐵路第三季財務與營運業績電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有:我們的總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson;我們的營運長 Pat Whitehead;我們的商務長 Janet Drysdale;以及我們的財務長 Ghislain Houle。

  • You can turn to page 2 of the presentation, which includes our forward-looking statements and non-GAAP definitions for your reference. These forward-looking statements reflect our current information and educated assumptions and include estimates, goals, and expectations about the future. These involve risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ from what we expect.

    您可以翻到簡報的第 2 頁,其中包含我們的前瞻性聲明和非 GAAP 定義,供您參考。這些前瞻性陳述反映了我們目前所掌握的資訊和有根據的假設,包括對未來的估計、目標和預期。這些都涉及風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與我們的預期有所不同。

  • As a reminder, forward-looking statements are not guaranteed, and factors such as economic conditions, competition, fuel prices, and regulatory changes could impact actual outcomes.

    需要提醒的是,前瞻性聲明並不保證準確,經濟狀況、競爭、燃料價格和監管變化等因素可能會影響實際結果。

  • It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tracy Robinson.

    現在我很高興將電話交給加拿大國家鐵路公司總裁兼執行長特雷西·羅賓遜。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Stacy, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm pleased this morning to share our Q4 and full year results. 2025 was a year in which this team delivered strong performance against the backdrop of significant volatility in a challenging macro.

    謝謝斯泰西,也謝謝各位今天蒞臨。今天早上我很高興與大家分享我們第四季和全年的業績。 2025年,在宏觀經濟充滿挑戰且波動劇烈的背景下,我們的團隊取得了強勁的表現。

  • The actions we took over the past year were proactive and exactly what the environment demanded. We've been disciplined, we've completed an important investment cycle. We've maintained a relentless focus on productivity and improvement and increasingly on commercial intensity.

    過去一年我們採取的行動積極主動,完全符合環境要求。我們一直保持著嚴謹的作風,已經完成了一個重要的投資週期。我們始終不懈地專注於提高生產力和改進,並日益重視商業強度。

  • These actions drove our 2025 results. They helped us navigate a tough year and set us up well, when the volumes start to grow across the industry again.

    這些舉措促成了我們2025年的業績。他們幫助我們度過了艱難的一年,並為我們做好了充分的準備,以便在整個行業的銷量再次開始增長時能夠順利起步。

  • Now on our last call, we made three commitments to ensure we deliver the type of returns we know CN is capable of.

    在上次通話中,我們做出了三項承諾,以確保我們能夠實現 CN 有能力實現的收益。

  • The first was on performance. As Q4 demonstrates, we continue to intensify our commercial execution while maintaining strong, disciplined network performance. Our focus is simple, concentrate on areas we can control and deliver through execution, regardless of the macro backup. Our results today reflect this focus with improvement across all key operating measures.

    第一個面向是關於表現。正如第四季所展現的那樣,我們在保持強勁、穩健的網路效能的同時,不斷加強商業執行。我們的重點很簡單,就是專注於我們能夠控制並透過執行實現的領域,而不管宏觀備份如何。我們今天的業績反映了這一重點,所有關鍵營運指標均有所改善。

  • Second, on financial discipline. We reset our capital programs to reflect today's environment with concrete actions to reduce costs and improve productivity. These actions are strengthening free cash flow, and we remain committed to returning excess capital to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

    其次,關於財務紀律。我們調整了資本項目計劃,以適應當前的環境,並採取具體措施降低成本、提高生產力。這些措施正在增強自由現金流,我們將繼續致力於在保持穩健資產負債表的同時,將多餘的資本回饋給股東。

  • And third, on guidance. Now, given the elevated level of macro and policy uncertainty and limited visibility. We think it's appropriate to provide directional guidance tied closely to volume trends rather than precise targets that can change quickly or become outdated.

    第三,關於指導。鑑於目前宏觀經濟和政策不確定性較高,且能見度有限。我們認為,提供與成交量趨勢緊密相關的方向性指導比提供可能快速變化或過時的精確目標更為合適。

  • So let's turn to the fourth quarter We closed the year with solid momentum, reflecting strong execution, reliable service, and continued discipline on costs and assets. In the fourth quarter, we delivered 14% EPS growth and 7% for the full year in line with our mid to high single-digit guidance.

    那麼讓我們來看看第四季。我們以穩健的勢頭結束了這一年,這反映了我們強大的執行力、可靠的服務以及對成本和資產的持續嚴格控制。第四季度,我們實現了 14% 的每股盈餘成長,全年成長 7%,符合我們先前中高個位數成長的預期。

  • I'm also pleased with our efficiency. In Q4, our offering ratio came in at 60.1%. Our best quarterly operation -- operating ratio of the year, and a 250 basis points improvement over last year. For the full year, we posted a 61.7% operating ratio, improving 120 basis points versus 2024.

    我對我們的效率也很滿意。第四季度,我們的發行比率為 60.1%。我們本季營運-營運比率為年度最佳,比去年同期提高了 250 個基點。全年營運比率為 61.7%,比 2024 年提高了 120 個基點。

  • On cash flow, we generated $3.3 billion up 8%, driven by cash from operations. And we remain disciplined on capital spending, continuing to tighten throughout the year. Cash flow remains a top priority, and the actions we've taken continue to support a strong trajectory.

    現金流方面,我們創造了 33 億美元,成長 8%,主要得益於經營活動產生的現金流。我們將繼續嚴格控制資本支出,並在全年持續收緊。現金流仍然是重中之重,我們採取的措施將繼續支持強勁的成長動能。

  • The volumes held up well through year end, led by Grain and Intermodal. We set a number of records on Grain. And Intermodal we benefited from an easier comparison as we lap the ILWU strike in 2024.

    在糧食和多式聯運的帶動下,全年貨運量保持良好水準。我們在 Grain 上創造了多項紀錄。而對於多式聯運來說,由於我們在 2024 年就經歷了 ILWU 罷工,因此比較起來更容易。

  • We saw notable strength in figments where our service and commercial execution have helped us drive share gains. Janet will walk you through the key revenue puts and takes in just a few minutes.

    我們在虛構領域看到了顯著的優勢,我們的服務和商業執行幫助我們提高了市場份額。Janet 將在幾分鐘內帶您了解關鍵的收入投入和收入。

  • Across the network, we continue to make meaningful progress in operating performance and efficiency. In the fourth quarter, we saw improvement across all of our key operating measures. Car velocity improved, terminal dwell reduced, train and locomotive productivity increased, labor productivity strengthened materially, and we achieved fourth quarter record in fuel efficiency.

    在整個網路中,我們在營運績效和效率方面持續取得顯著進步。第四季度,我們所有關鍵營運指標均有所改善。車輛速度提高,終端停留時間減少,列車和機車生產力提高,勞動生產力大幅提高,第四季燃油效率創歷史新高。

  • Now these [gain] reinforce my confidence in our ability to perform consistently, even in a challenging demand environment. Pat will take you through the initiatives. He and his team are driving to build on this momentum.

    現在,這些[收穫]增強了我對我們即使在充滿挑戰的需求環境下也能持續取得優異成績的信心。Pat將帶你了解這些舉措。他和他的團隊正努力鞏固這一勢頭。

  • So to sum it up, despite care pressures that intensified in the second half of the year, and ongoing trade uncertainty. We execute it, we stay disciplined, and we deliver.

    總而言之,儘管下半年護理壓力加劇,貿易狀況持續不明朗。我們執行任務,我們保持自律,我們交付成果。

  • Now looking into 2026, our focus will continue to be undisciplined execution. We'll prioritize the levers we control, stay close to our customers, and stay grounded amid a volatile macro environment.

    展望2026年,我們將繼續專注於不受約束的執行。我們將優先考慮我們能夠掌控的因素,與客戶保持密切聯繫,並在動盪的宏觀環境中保持穩健。

  • As we look ahead, uncertainty remains high in visibility limited. Economic growth looks muted, and it's hard to call where the tariff situation will land or what it means for trade flows. The outcome of the USMCA review could influence trade and freight demand in ways that are tough to size up today.

    展望未來,不確定性依然很高,能見度有限。經濟成長看起來較為平淡,關稅情勢最終會如何發展以及對貿易流動意味著什麼,目前還很難預測。美墨加協定審查的結果可能會對貿易和貨運需求產生影響,而這種影響目前很難估量。

  • So against that backdrop. We believe a more directional framework for guidance tied to volume trends makes sense. Given what we see today, our base case expectation is that the volumes will be flattish with 2025.

    所以,在這樣的背景下。我們認為,與成交量趨勢掛鉤的更具方向性的指導框架是合理的。根據我們目前所看到的,我們的基本預期是,到 2025 年銷售量將保持穩定。

  • It's important to note that at this time the most reasonable approaches to assume that current tariff levels stay where they are. So our base case expectations do not build in any upside or downside from further tariff action.

    值得注意的是,目前最合理的做法是假設目前的關稅水準保持不變。因此,我們的基本預期並未考慮進一步關稅措施可能帶來的任何上行或下行風險。

  • And as the year unfolds and hopefully visibility improves. We'll keep updating our view. And we're going to continue to pull every lever on productivity across the organization, and we will see incremental gain, although not as significant as those we achieved in 2025.

    隨著時間推移,希望能見度能有所改善。我們會持續更新我們的觀點。我們將繼續竭盡全力提高整個組織的生產力,我們將看到逐步的進步,儘管不會像我們在 2025 年取得的成就那樣顯著。

  • We have some headwinds to work through in 2026 on next, and in some expense categories such as Janet will take you through. So in relatively flat volumes, we expect EPS growth to slightly exceed volume growth.

    2026 年我們將面臨一些不利因素,Janet 將帶您了解一些費用類別。因此,在銷售量相對穩定的情況下,我們預期每股盈餘成長將略高於銷售成長。

  • Free cashflow will continue to grow in 2026, and we remain firmly committed to returning that cash back to our shareholders. We're also taking a deliberate temporary step-up and leverage to drive share repurchases, reflecting our confidence in the underlying earnings call of this business when volumes return.

    2026年自由現金流將持續成長,我們將繼續堅定地把這些現金回饋給股東。我們也採取了有意識的暫時性增持和槓桿措施來推動股票回購,這反映了我們對該業務在銷售恢復後基本獲利能力的信心。

  • And as a team were staying locked in on delivering for shareholders in any environment.

    團隊始終專注於在任何環境下為股東創造價值。

  • Now we're building an engine with strong operating leverage, strong cash generation with resilience and the flexibility, one that will accelerate earnings and margins as volumes improve, whether through a better economic backdrop, clarity on a reasonable tariff arrangement or continued progress on Canadian trade diversification.

    現在,我們正在打造一個具有強大營運槓桿、強勁現金流、韌性和靈活性的引擎,隨著銷量的改善,無論是透過更好的經濟環境、合理的關稅安排的明確,還是加拿大貿易多元化的持續進展,這個引擎都將加速盈利和利潤率的增長。

  • And importantly, the muscles we've activated over the last 18 months around cost and productivity are now firing across the end. That gives us meaningful leverage as volumes return without requiring a significant step up in capital, and our teams will continue to push hard for efficiency.

    更重要的是,在過去 18 個月裡,我們在成本和生產力方面所激活的機制,現在正在全面發揮作用。隨著銷售回升,我們無需大幅增加資本投入即可獲得顯著優勢,我們的團隊將繼續努力提高效率。

  • Now, just a few words on the proposed industry consolidation. We know this is top of mind for many of you, and it certainly kept us busy as we worked through the details. UP and NS filed their application in the STB as we expected deemed the filing incomplete.

    現在,簡單談談擬議的行業整合。我們知道這是你們許多人最關心的問題,我們在處理細節的過程中也確實忙得不可開交。正如我們預期的那樣,UP 和 NS 向 STB 提交了申請,但 STB 認為申請資料不完整。

  • The industry still has a long road ahead in evaluating this transaction. It is not at all clear that the transaction as proposed addresses many of the questions around the negative impact on competition. As well as the bigger issue of increasing rail competition.

    業界對這筆交易的評估還有很長的路要走。目前尚不清楚擬議的交易是否解決了圍繞對競爭產生負面影響的許多問題。以及日益激烈的鐵路競爭這一更大的問題。

  • The concessions required to achieve this will be significant. This should be the focus that UP and NS prepare their refiling, and we're eager to see how they'll address these issues in the revised application, I'd say they've got a long way to go.

    要實現這一目標,需要做出重大讓步。這應該是UP和NS準備重新提交申請的重點,我們很想看看他們將如何在修改後的申請中解決這些問題,我認為他們還有很長的路要走。

  • Now will this process plays out the majority of our team remains focused exactly where they should be on running our business and driving value to our shareholders. The team is fully aligned on executing day to day, winning every carload, delivering safe and reliable service for our customers and continuing to convert strong execution into growing free cash flow.

    現在,在這個過程進行期間,我們團隊的大部分成員仍然專注於他們應該做的事情,即經營我們的業務並為我們的股東創造價值。團隊上下齊心協力,致力於日常運營,爭取每一車貨物的運輸,為客戶提供安全可靠的服務,並將強勁的執行力轉化為不斷增長的自由現金流。

  • I am impressed with how decisively our team has stepped up, and you'll see this continue. Longer-term, our opportunities set as the railroad of the North is compelling. We sit at top an incredible natural resource base with enviable access to North American markets in an unparalleled port network that provides pass to every global market.

    我對我們團隊果斷採取的行動印象深刻,你們將會看到這種勢頭繼續下去。從長遠來看,我們作為北方鐵路建設者所面臨的機會是巨大的。我們坐擁豐富的自然資源,擁有令人羨慕的北美市場准入優勢,以及無與倫比的港口網絡,可通往全球各個市場。

  • It's uniquely positioned us to support customers in both our current markets and as trade flows evolve. And we're seeing to start this play out in some sectors now. The decisions we've made over the last 12- to 18-months, we will continue to refine positions of the strong operating and earnings leverage as these volumes lift. And throughout, we'll see disciplined on capital and focused on execution and free cash flow.

    這使我們能夠以獨特的優勢,在現有市場和不斷變化的貿易格局中為客戶提供支援。我們現在看到這種情況已經開始在某些領域出現了。在過去 12 到 18 個月裡,我們做出了一些決定,隨著銷售量的成長,我們將繼續完善強大的營運和獲利槓桿的策略。而且,我們將始終看到公司在資本管理方面保持紀律性,並專注於執行和自由現金流。

  • Pat, you're up.

    帕特,輪到你了。

  • Patrick Whitehead - Senior Vice President, Network Operations

    Patrick Whitehead - Senior Vice President, Network Operations

  • Thanks, Tracy. I'll be speaking to slide 6 first. The team delivered a strong fourth quarter, and I'm pleased that the three areas where laser-focused on are paying off. These are one, insure our people are at their safest and most productive; two, delivering our promise to our customers; and three, to maximize margin by controlling unit costs and asset utilization.

    謝謝你,特蕾西。我先講到第6張投影片。球隊在第四季表現出色,我很高興看到我們重點關注的三個領域都取得了成效。第一,確保我們的員工處於最安全、最有效率的狀態;第二,履行我們對客戶的承諾;第三,透過控制單位成本和資產利用率來最大化利潤。

  • It starts where it always does for us, safety on the ground. In Q4 and for the full year, we achieved the best injury frequency ratio in our history that reflects consistent execution and is core to our performance this quarter and going forward.

    對我們來說,一切的起點始終是地面安全。第四季和全年,我們取得了公司史上最佳的傷病頻率比率,這反映了公司持續的執行力,也是我們本季及未來業績的核心。

  • I want to first recognize our frontline teams who approach their craft as true professional railroaders. While this record is meaningful, our focus remains on every one of our CN family members going home safely every day. We want this for the families and the communities that count on us. That foundation allowed us to take on more work and deliver for our customers.

    首先,我要表揚我們的第一線團隊,他們以真正的專業鐵路工人精神對待自己的工作。雖然這項紀錄意義重大,但我們的重點仍然是確保每位 CN 大家庭成員每天都能安全回家。我們希望為那些依賴我們的家庭和社區帶來這樣的結果。正是有了這樣的基礎,我們才能承擔更多的工作,並為客戶提供更好的服務。

  • Our workload increased 5% year-over-year, a bump partly supported by our grain customers. We carry record setting grain tonnage for Western Canada for four consecutive months, while maintaining reliable service to our merchandise customers with local service commitment performance well above 90%.

    我們的工作量年增了 5%,這部分成長得益於我們的糧食客戶的支持。連續四個月,我們的糧食運輸量在加拿大西部創下紀錄,同時為我們的商品客戶提供可靠的服務,本地服務承諾績效遠超過 90%。

  • From a network standpoint, Q4 tested resilience. Particularly in December, when winter operating conditions required shorter train lengths for the entire month. Despite this, car velocity improved 2% and dwell declined 1% year-over-year in the quarter. That tells us we're not trading service or velocity to manage disruptions we're improving both.

    從網路角度來看,第四季考驗了網路的韌性。尤其是在 12 月,冬季營運條件要求整個月列車長度都要縮短。儘管如此,本季汽車行駛速度年增了 2%,停車停留時間年減了 1%。這說明我們並沒有為了應對突發事件而犧牲服務或速度,而是兩者都得到了提升。

  • The takeaway from the quarter is straight forward. We handled more volume with discipline, even under a full month of winter constraints.

    本季的結論很簡單。即使在長達一個月的冬季限制下,我們依然以嚴謹的態度處理了更大的工作量。

  • Turning to the next slide, this is where the operating model shows up in the bottom line. On labor, T&E productivity improved 14% versus Q4 last year. We entered the quarter with approximately 800 furloughs and exited with about 650. So effectively adding resources to support the grain program and winter readiness.

    接下來看下一張投影片,這裡將展示營運模式在最終結果中的作用。在勞動力方面,差旅和費用生產力比去年第四季提高了 14%。本季初我們約有 800 名員工暫時停職,季末約有 650 名員工暫時停職。因此,有效地增加了資源,以支持糧食計劃和冬季準備。

  • On a full year basis, we improved our T&E labor cost per GTM by 6% with GTMs up by 1%. That's more output with a smaller cost base. That same rigor shows up in how we managed our assets. On locomotives productivity improved 5% year-over-year in the quarter with roughly 10% of the fleet stored on average.

    從全年來看,我們的每 GTM 的 T&E 人工成本降低了 6%,而 GTM 增加了 1%。這意味著可以用更低的成本來獲得更高的產量。這種嚴謹的態度也反映在我們對資產的管理上。本季機車生產率年增 5%,平均約有 10% 的機車處於閒置狀態。

  • Looking under the hood, locomotive availability reached an all-time high, nudging up 1% over 2024 to 92.5%. Creating a knock-on effect that cleans up our balance sheet. The result was a $20 million reduction in our mechanical inventory or 14% full year-over-year.

    從內部來看,機車可用率達到了歷史最高水平,比 2024 年略微上升 1%,達到 92.5%。這將產生連鎖反應,從而改善我們的資產負債表。結果是我們的機械庫存減少了 2000 萬美元,比去年同期減少了 14%。

  • We also achieved a record level of fuel efficiency in Q4. Improving nearly 1% year-over-year with full year results just shy of our best performance on record.

    我們在第四季也實現了創紀錄的燃油效率。全年業績較上年同期成長近 1%,略低於我們有史以來的最佳業績。

  • On infrastructure, we completed all eight capacity projects we committed to at the start of 2025 on time. Our engineering team maintained its tight control over installation costs. Totalling near nearly $40 million of productivity gains from 2024 while materially reducing reliance on contractors.

    在基礎設施方面,我們按時完成了2025年初承諾的所有八個擴充項目。我們的工程團隊嚴格控制了安裝成本。從 2024 年起,生產力將提高近 4,000 萬美元,同時大幅減少對承包商的依賴。

  • Where conditions allowed, including an earlier onset of winter in some regions, we advanced productive capital work deeper into the season, rather than defer it, improving asset readiness. While reducing contractor spend significantly.

    在條件允許的情況下,包括一些地區冬季提前到來,我們將生產性資本工作推進到季節更深處,而不是推遲它,從而提高了資產準備度。同時大幅降低承包商支出。

  • As we look to 2026, we're well positioned. The network, locomotive fleet, and car fleet are in good shape. And we're not satisfied stopping there. To move from good to great, our focus is on precision. That means reducing yard dwell, eliminating non-value-added cost and insuring cars, spend less time waiting and more time earning.

    展望2026年,我們已做好充分準備。網路、機車車隊和汽車車隊狀況良好。但我們並不滿足於此。要從優秀走向卓越,我們的重點在於精準。這意味著減少車輛在場地停留時間,消除非增值成本,並為車輛投保,減少等待時間,增加賺錢時間。

  • Yards are the anchors to the whole network. Three-quarters of our traffic in our major terminals, and more than half of our staff work in these locations. In engineering, we're continuing to strengthen in-house capabilities, control unit costs, and remove engineering-related delays.

    碼頭是整個網路的錨點。我們四分之三的客流量都集中在主要航站樓,超過一半的員工在這些航站樓工作。在工程方面,我們將繼續加強內部能力,控制單位成本,並消除與工程相關的延誤。

  • Reducing yard dwell only matters if cars move over the road without disruption. Together these levers expand margins, strengthen cash flow and allow the railroad to perform through any cycle. We see an opportunity to lower our operating expense in 2026 through our cross-functional terminal reviews and continued operating discipline with additional margin upside as volume grow.

    減少車輛在院內停留時間只有在車輛能夠順暢地通過道路的情況下才有意義。這些措施共同作用,擴大了利潤空間,增強了現金流,使鐵路公司能夠在任何經濟週期中正常運作。我們看到,透過跨職能的終端審查和持續的營運紀律,我們有機會在 2026 年降低營運費用,隨著銷售的成長,利潤率還有進一步提高的空間。

  • With that, I'll turn over to Janet.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給珍妮特。

  • Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Pat, and good morning, everyone. Happy Friday. I am really pleased with the way the fourth quarter came together. We delivered 4% more RTMs and 3% more carloads. Performance that reflects how hard the commercial team has been pushing on every opportunity, delivering 2% revenue growth in what remains a challenging market.

    謝謝你,帕特,大家早安。星期五快樂。我對第四季的表現非常滿意。我們交付的RTM數量增加了4%,貨車裝載量增加了3%。業績反映了商業團隊在每個機會上都付出了巨大的努力,在依然充滿挑戰的市場中實現了 2% 的收入成長。

  • What stands out for me this quarter is not just the growth itself, but how we achieved it. The team has been out on the market every day, winning share, capturing singles and doubles and staying relentlessly focused on what it takes for our customers to win.

    本季最讓我印象深刻的不僅是成長本身,還有我們實現成長的方式。團隊每天都在市場上努力爭取市場份額,贏得單打和雙打比賽,並始終專注於如何幫助我們的客戶取得成功。

  • And while we did benefit from a relatively easier year-over-year comp. That tailwind was partly offset by continued softness in key markets like forest products and metals, which remain pressured by weak fundamentals and tariffs. So yes, we expected to outperform last year, but we also had real gaps to backfill. I'm really proud of the results the team has delivered.

    雖然我們確實受益於相對較低的同比基數。這一利多因素被林產品和金屬等主要市場的持續疲軟所部分抵消,這些市場仍然受到基本面疲軟和關稅的影響。所以,是的,我們預期今年的業績會超過去年,但我們也確實需要填補一些空缺。我為團隊所取得的成果感到非常自豪。

  • Turning to slide 9, I'll provide a few highlights on the quarter before moving to the 2026 outlook. With an Intermodal, both international and domestic revenues were up 13% and 6% respectively. International was notably strong at Vancouver and Rupert, aided by a favorable comparison against last year's port labor disruption.

    接下來請看第 9 張投影片,我將簡單介紹本季的一些亮點,然後再展望 2026 年的情況。透過多式聯運,國際和國內收入分別成長了 13% 和 6%。溫哥華港和魯珀特港的國際貨運量表現尤為強勁,這得益於與去年港口勞工糾紛相比的利基數效應。

  • Prince Rupert also benefited from gains related to the new Gemini service. On the domestic side, we continue to realize service-related gains.

    魯伯特王子也從新的雙子座服務中獲益。在國內方面,我們持續取得與服務相關的利益。

  • Turning to Grain, we had very strong demand in the quarter and our operating team did a great job in getting the grain from the elevators to the terminals. So not only did we set an all-time annual record in 2025 for Western Canadian Grain segments. We had monthly records in October, November and December.

    再來看糧食,本季需求非常強勁,我們的營運團隊出色地完成了將糧食從糧倉運送到碼頭的工作。因此,我們不僅在 2025 年創下了加拿大西部穀物板塊的年度歷史最高紀錄。我們在十月、十一月和十二月都有月度記錄。

  • With petroleum and chemicals, we saw growth in all segments, led by a 9% increase in natural gas liquids volumes driven by strong domestic demand and continued export strength through Prince Rupert. Forest products remained under pressure due to weak demand and increased tariffs and duties.

    石油和化學產品方面,所有細分市場均實現成長,其中天然氣液體銷量成長 9%,這主要得益於強勁的國內需求以及透過魯珀特王子港持續強勁的出口。由於需求疲軟以及關稅和稅收增加,林產品價格持續承壓。

  • Within metals and minerals, we saw lower iron ore shipments driven by weak fundamentals, the mine closure in late Q1 of last year and some unplanned outages. With persistently high natural gas inventories in Canada. We also had a slowdown in drilling which impacted frac sand.

    在金屬和礦產領域,由於基本面疲軟、去年第一季末礦山關閉以及一些計劃外停產,鐵礦石出貨量有所下降。加拿大天然氣庫存持續處於高位。鑽井活動也放緩了,影響了壓裂砂的供應。

  • We continue to generate same store price ahead of our rail cost inflation. However, our overall results reflected negative mix and a roughly $70 million headwind related to the repeal of the Canadian carbon tax. We had a fuel tailwind and an FX headwind that combined or a net impact of less than 1%.

    我們持續維持同店價格高於鐵路成本上漲水準。然而,我們的整體業績反映了不利的市場組合,以及與加拿大碳稅廢除相關的約 7,000 萬美元的不利影響。我們有燃料方面的順風,但外匯市場方面有逆風,兩者加起來的淨影響不到 1%。

  • Tariff, trade uncertainty and volatility impacted our full year 2025 revenues by over $350 million.

    關稅、貿易的不確定性和波動性對我們 2025 年全年收入的影響超過 3.5 億美元。

  • Turning to the 2026 outlook on slide 10. In terms of the macro environment, it doesn't look like it's going to be any better than last year. And recall that 2025's growth was helped by a favorable year-over-year comp, so we know we've got real work ahead of us, but we are leaning in hard.

    接下來請看第 10 頁投影片,了解 2026 年的展望。從宏觀環境來看,似乎不會比去年好多少。請記住,2025 年的成長得益於有利的同比基數,因此我們知道我們還有很多工作要做,但我們正在全力以赴。

  • So starting with petroleum and chemicals, we expect to see positive momentum continue across multiple segments.

    因此,我們預計從石油和化學工業開始,多個領域將持續保持積極勢頭。

  • We will benefit from a number of CN-specific projects, including Phase 2 of the Greater Toronto Area fuel terminal, new fractionators and crude oil expansion projects. Additionally, we expect a year-over-year comp benefit, get on last year's extended refinery turnarounds, which we don't expect to reoccur.

    我們將受益於加拿大國家鐵路公司(CN)的多個特定項目,包括大多倫多地區燃料碼頭第二階段工程、新的分餾裝置和原油擴建項目。此外,我們預計員工將獲得同比補償,這是由於去年煉油廠延長檢修造成的,我們預計這種情況不會再次發生。

  • We anticipate Canadian US grains remain strong, particularly with the record Canadian crop as well as the recently announced improving trade conditions for Canadian canola. In terms of potash, we expect some pressure in the domestic market as farmers balance input costs against lower grain prices.

    我們預計加拿大和美國之間的穀物貿易將保持強勁勢頭,特別是考慮到加拿大創紀錄的豐收以及最近宣布的加拿大油菜籽貿易條件的改善。就鉀肥而言,我們預期國內市場將面臨一些壓力,因為農民需要在投入成本和糧食價格下跌之間權衡。

  • With respect to export markets, we handled some spot moves in Q2 and Q3 last year, which we generally don't expect to be reoccurring, so we have a bit of a tougher comp there.

    至於出口市場,我們在去年第二季和第三季處理了一些現貨交易,我們通常會預期這種情況不會再次發生,因此我們在這方面面臨更大的比較壓力。

  • Turning to Intermodal and domestic, we're continuing to leverage our strong service to drive growth. For international, it's pretty slow right now and we expect that to continue into the second quarter.

    在多式聯運和國內運輸方面,我們將繼續利用我們強大的服務能力來推動成長。目前國際業務成長較為緩慢,我們預期這種情況會持續到第二季​​。

  • We continue to be very pleased with the growth in volumes related to the Gemini service through Prince Rupert. Within metals and minerals, we have some pluses and minuses. Weak fundamentals for iron ore are expected to continue and we're still dealing with the tariff on steel and aluminum.

    我們對透過魯珀特王子港提供的 Gemini 服務的業務量成長感到非常滿意。金屬和礦物既有優點也有缺點。鐵礦石基本面疲軟的局面預計將持續,我們仍在應對鋼鐵和鋁的關稅問題。

  • On steel, we are continuing to hustle hard on mitigating the transporter headwinds with opportunities in Canada. Frac sand demand is unusually weak so far in Q1, but we have new terminals coming online and capacity for NGL exports is increasing, so we do expect improvement as the year progresses.

    在鋼鐵領域,我們正持續努力利用加拿大的機會來緩解運輸業面臨的不利因素。第一季至今,壓裂砂需求異常疲軟,但隨著新碼頭投入運營,天然氣凝液出口能力也在增加,因此我們預計隨著今年的推進,情況將會有所改善。

  • The auto segment is expected to be flat. Forest products will continue to be challenged as US housing starts are forecast to be flat, and Canadian producers managed with the full year impact of the higher tariffs and duties that were applied in August and October of 2025.

    預計汽車產業將保持平穩。由於預計美國房屋開工量將保持平穩,而加拿大生產商則要應對 2025 年 8 月和 10 月實施的更高關稅和稅費的全年影響,林產品將繼續面臨挑戰。

  • We expect persistent weeks of demand for US exports of thermal coal. For Canadian coal, positive metallurgical coal prices are driving increased production.

    我們預計未來幾週美國動力煤出口需求將持續旺盛。對於加拿大煤炭而言,冶金煤價格上漲正在推動產量增加。

  • All in, we expect 2026 volumes to be more or less flat versus last year. Q1 will be the toughest quarter on a year-over-year comparable, and you're seeing that in our January volume. We continue to price ahead of our rail cost inflation. Unfortunately, we do expect those mixed headwinds to persist, driven by the ongoing weakness in forest products and metals.

    總的來說,我們預計 2026 年的銷售量將與去年基本持平。第一季將是同比數據最不理想的季度,這一點從我們一月份的銷售中就能看出來。我們繼續提前於鐵路成本上漲定價。不幸的是,我們預計這些不利因素將持續存在,主要原因是林產品和金屬市場持續疲軟。

  • So let me wrap up. We are open-eyed about the difficult environment in which we're operating, but we have a commercial team that is highly energized and moving with urgency and agility. We have available capacity and most importantly, we're providing the service that our customers need to win.

    那麼,我就總結一下吧。我們清楚地意識到我們所處的經營環境十分艱難,但我們擁有一支充滿活力、行動迅速且靈活的商業團隊。我們擁有充足的產能,最重要的是,我們正在提供客戶贏得比賽所需的服務。

  • Ghislain over to you.

    吉斯蘭,該你了。

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • (spoken in foreign language) Starting on slide 12, we closed the year on a strong note. Thanks to the dedication of our commercial and operations team. We delivered solid performance across the board.

    (用外語說)從第 12 張幻燈片開始,我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年。感謝我們商務和營運團隊的辛勤付出。我們各項指標均表現穩健。

  • Our financial results were further boosted by our continued focus on managing costs and driving productivity, and we remained active on share buybacks as part of our commitment to creating shareholder value. Especially since we see our shares as undervalued relative to intrinsic value and an efficient way to return capital to shareholders.

    我們持續專注於成本控制和提高生產效率,進一步提升了財務表現。同時,我們也積極回購股票,以履行我們創造股東價值的承諾。尤其是我們認為我們的股票相對於其內在價值而言被低估了,而且是向股東返還資本的有效方式。

  • During the quarter, we reported diluted EPS grew 12% year-over-year, while adjusted EPS was up 14%. These results reflect two notable adjustments. It's $34 million pre-tax charge tied the workforce reduction program we discussed on our Q3 call and a $15 million in advisor fees related to industry consolidation.

    本季度,我們報告稀釋後每股收益年增 12%,調整後每股收益較去年同期成長 14%。這些結果反映了兩項顯著的調整。其中 3,400 萬美元為稅前支出,與我們在第三季電話會議上討論的裁員計劃有關;另有 1,500 萬美元為與產業整合相關的顧問費。

  • We're very proud of the progress on efficiency this quarter. Operating ratio improved by 140 basis points to 61.2%. And an adjusted basis and even was stronger at 60.1%, a 250 basis points improvement. This reflects the hard work and discipline across the organization in managing expenses and driving productivity.

    我們對本季在效率方面取得的進展感到非常自豪。營業比率提高了140個基點,達到61.2%。經過調整後,基數甚至更高,達到 60.1%,提高了 250 個基點。這體現了整個組織在控製成本和提高生產力方面所付出的辛勤努力和嚴謹態度。

  • Revenues were up 2% year-over-year, adding to the solid finish for the year.

    營收年增 2%,為全年畫下了一個圓滿的句點。

  • On slide 13, let me walk you through a few key operating expense categories for the quarter on an exchange adjusted basis. Labor costs were up 4% versus last year due to the workforce reduction charge and wage inflation. Partly offset by 4% lower average headcount and higher capital credits from an extended construction season.

    在第 13 張投影片中,我將帶您了解本季經匯率調整後的幾個主要營運費用類別。由於裁員費用和薪資上漲,勞動成本比去年上漲了 4%。部分被平均員工人數減少 4% 和施工季節延長帶來的更高資本利得所抵消。

  • Fuel expense was down 9% compared to last year, driven by two factors the removal of the Canadian Federal carbon tax and a 1% improvement in fuel efficiency. Overall, the impact of fuel prices on Q4 earnings and operating ratio was negligible, essentially flat for earnings and 20 basis points unfavorable to OR.

    與去年相比,燃料支出下降了 9%,這主要得益於兩個因素:一是加拿大聯邦碳稅的取消,二是燃料效率提高了 1%。整體而言,燃油價格對第四季收益和營運比率的影響微乎其微,收益基本上持平,營運比率則不利地下降了 20 個基點。

  • Depreciation was down 7%, mainly due to two items. The benefit of a favorable depreciation study, which we do on a regular basis, and the impact on certain assets recognized through purchase price allocations that became fully depreciated during the year.

    折舊下降了7%,主要原因是兩個因素。我們定期進行有利的折舊研究,並從中獲益,這對透過購買價格分配確認的某些資產產生了影響,這些資產在一年內已完全折舊。

  • Other expenses rolled 27%, mainly due to higher legal provisions, including a non-recurring $34 million accrual related to an unfavorable court ruling in the fourth quarter of 2025, which we are in the process of appealing.

    其他費用結轉 27%,主要是由於法律準備金增加,其中包括與 2025 年第四季度不利的法院裁決相關的 3,400 萬美元非經常性應計費用,我們正在對此裁決提出上訴。

  • The increase in legal provision is essentially offset by a $36 million gain on the sale of a portion of a branch line reported below the line and other income. The effective tax rate for the quarter was around 25%.

    法律準備金的增加基本上被出售部分支線所得的 3,600 萬美元收益(該收益已在線路下方報告)和其他收入所抵消。本季實際稅率約為25%。

  • Turning to slide 14, given the strong close to the year with earnings supported by strong cost management across the business. We delivered full year adjusted diluted EPS of $7.63 up 7% from 2024 and at the high end of our guidance range.

    翻到第 14 張投影片,鑑於公司全年業績強勁收官,獲利得到整個業務部門強有力的成本控制支撐。我們公佈的全年調整後攤薄每股收益為 7.63 美元,比 2024 年增長 7%,達到我們預期範圍的高端。

  • Our adjusted operating ratio came in at 61.7%, an improvement of 120 basis points compared to last year. A clear reflection of discipline execution across the business.

    我們調整後的營業比率為 61.7%,比去年提高了 120 個基點。這清楚地體現了公司各部門的嚴格執行力。

  • Finally, we remain focused on pre-cast flow generation ending the year at over $3.3 billion up 8% from last year. We also finished a year, $50 million below our Q3 capital projection thanks to stronger capital discipline and real efficiency gains in engineering.

    最後,我們仍然專注於預製件生產,預計年底產量將超過 33 億美元,比去年增長 8%。由於加強了資本紀律和工程方面的真正效率提升,我們本年度的資本支出比第三季的預期減少了 5,000 萬美元。

  • We continued to lean into our share buyback program in Q4. We purchasing nearly 15 million shares in 2025 for around $2 billion reinforcing our commitment to creating long-term shareholder value.

    第四季度,我們持續加大股票回購力道。我們將於 2025 年購買近 1,500 萬股股票,價值約 20 億美元,這進一步鞏固了我們為創造長期股東價值的承諾。

  • I'm also pleased to report our Board of Directors has approved a 3% increase in CN's dividend, marking the 30th consecutive year of dividend growth, an important milestone in a reflection of our confidence in the durability of our cash generation profile.

    我很高興地宣布,我們的董事會已批准將加拿大國家鐵路公司 (CN) 的股息提高 3%,這標誌著公司連續第 30 年實現股息增長,這是一個重要的里程碑,反映了我們對自身現金流持續增長的信心。

  • In addition, the Board has authorized a new share buyback program allowing the repurchase of up to 24 million common shares from February 4, 2026 to February 3, 2027.

    此外,董事會已批准一項新的股票回購計劃,允許從 2026 年 2 月 4 日至 2027 年 2 月 3 日回購至多 2,400 萬股普通股。

  • Looking ahead, we expect our debt leverage to increase temporarily to roughly 2.7 times and then come back to 2.5 times in 2027 as we take advantage of what we view as an attractive share price. The modest increase is intentional and fully aligned with our disciplined balance sheet strategy.

    展望未來,我們預計我們的債務槓桿率將暫時上升至約 2.7 倍,然後在 2027 年回落至 2.5 倍,屆時我們將利用我們認為具有吸引力的股價。此次小幅成長是有意為之,完全符合我們嚴謹的資產負債表策略。

  • Now let me turn to our 2026 financial outlook on slide 15. As Tracy mentioned, given the uncertainty in the environment, we think a more directional approach is the right way to frame the year. For planning purposes, we're assuming revenue to mass will be flattished with 2025 and importantly that tariff stay at their current levels throughout the year.

    現在讓我來看看第 15 頁投影片,了解我們對 2026 年的財務展望。正如特蕾西所提到的,鑑於當前環境的不確定性,我們認為採取更有方向性的方法來規劃今年的工作是正確的方式。為了便於規劃,我們假設到 2025 年大眾消費收入將趨於平穩,更重要的是,關稅將在全年保持目前的水平。

  • On that basis, we expect EPS to grow at a rate slightly ahead of volumes. Pricing should continue to outpace rail cost inflation, and we're carrying a good momentum on the productivity side. Recognizing that much of the heavy lifting on efficiency was done in 2025.

    基於此,我們預期每股盈餘的成長速度將略高於銷售量的成長速度。定價應繼續超過鐵路成本通膨,而且我們在生產力方面也保持著良好的發展勢頭。認識到提高效率的大部分艱鉅工作將在 2025 年完成。

  • That said, we do have some notable headwinds this year, which will weigh on margins. A continued unfavorable mix with less forest products and metal strapping, lower capital credits related to fixed overhead costs as a result of smaller capital program, a higher effective tax rate in the range of 25% to 26%. And the fact that we're laughing last year's other income gains.

    儘管如此,今年我們確實面臨一些明顯的逆風,這將對利潤率造成壓力。持續不利的組合(森林產品和金屬捆紮帶減少)、由於資本計劃規模縮小導致與固定管理費用相關的資本抵免減少、實際稅率較高(25% 至 26%)。而我們現在卻在嘲笑去年的其他收入成長。

  • In our modeling and guidance, we neutralized foreign exchange, assuming the 2025 average rate of $0.715. Our FX sensitivity is unchanged at roughly $0.05 of EPS for every penny move. At current spot levels, that would represent about a $0.10 EPS headwind.

    在我們的模型和指導中,我們消除了外匯影響,假設2025年的平均匯率為0.715美元。我們的外匯敏感度維持不變,即每變動1美分,每股收益約變動0.05美元。以當前現貨價格計算,這將導致每股收益下降約 0.10 美元。

  • With CapEx set at $2.8 billion for 2026, a $500 million reduction versus last year, we expect to see continued improvement in our cash conversion rate.

    2026 年資本支出設定為 28 億美元,比去年減少 5 億美元,我們預期現金轉換率將持續改善。

  • In conclusion, let me reiterate a few points. We're very pleased with our Q4 in full year 2025 results having delivered on our EPS guidance and build strong momentum heading into 2026. While the demand environment remains uncertain, our guidance approach is grounded in discipline and realism.

    最後,我想重申幾點。我們對 2025 年第四季及全年業績非常滿意,實現了每股收益預期,並為 2026 年奠定了強勁的發展勢頭。儘管需求環境仍不明朗,但我們的指導方針以嚴謹和務實為基礎。

  • At the same time, the fundamentals of our business remain solid. Our focus on pricing discipline, productivity, and cost control combined with the inherent operating leverage in our model, but this [instruct] well to generate attractive returns when volumes return.

    同時,我們業務的基本面依然穩固。我們著重於定價紀律、生產力和成本控制,再加上我們模式中固有的營運槓桿,但這[指導]在銷售恢復時能夠產生可觀的回報。

  • As conditions evolve, the framework gives investors greater transparency into the sensitivity of earnings while underscoring our confidence and the durability of our cash generation and long-term value creation. With that, let me turn it back to Tracy.

    隨著情勢的變化,該框架使投資者能夠更清晰地了解收益的敏感性,同時強調我們對現金流產生和長期價值創造的信心和可持續性。那麼,現在讓我把話題轉回給特蕾西。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Christa will go to question.

    謝謝,克麗斯塔將去提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Cowen.

    (操作說明)Cherilyn Radbourne,TD Cowen。

  • Cherilyn Radbourne - Equity Analyst

    Cherilyn Radbourne - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks very much and good morning. Janet, I wanted to turn to you, to just ask you if you could give some additional color on where your team is feeding the bushes. And whether there's any update on the incremental revenue target that was given in Q3, I think you generated $35 million in Q3 and we're approaching $100 million in Q4.

    非常感謝,早安。Janet,我想問你,你能不能再詳細介紹一下你們團隊在哪裡給灌木叢施肥?至於第三季給出的增量收入目標是否有任何更新,我認為你們在第三季創造了 3,500 萬美元的收入,而我們在第四季正接近 1 億美元。

  • Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yeah, sure, thanks, Cherilyn for the question. So we did, kind of close with $100 million of course that pipeline continues to develop and we probably have another $100 million, so far kind of in our scorecard that we're keeping track of in January.

    好的,謝謝Cherilyn的提問。所以,我們差不多完成了 1 億美元的目標,當然,這條投資管道還在繼續發展,我們可能還有另外 1 億美元的目標,目前為止,這些目標都已列入我們的業績清單,我們將在 1 月份繼續跟進。

  • What I will say is that this is what's helping us to close the gaps in some of the weaker markets, so we do, scene forest products continue to deteriorate even since last quarter, with some additional mill closures or curtailments, when we see the continued weakness in the metals and minerals side.

    我想說的是,這正是幫助我們縮小一些較弱市場缺口的原因。因此,我們看到,自上個季度以來,林產品市場持續惡化,一些工廠關閉或減產,而金屬和礦產市場也持續疲軟。

  • So we are out there beating the bushes everywhere, I would say, across the board and even in the markets that are little bit more pressured by the tariffs, for example, we are finding some stickiness and some new moves to ship metals, from Central Canada to Western Canada.

    所以,我們正在各個方面進行廣泛嘗試,可以說,我們全面地進行了嘗試,即使在受關稅壓力較大的市場,例如,我們也發現了一些粘性因素,以及從加拿大中部到加拿大西部金屬運輸的一些新舉措。

  • We actually have some optimism more recently around aluminum and the potential to move some of that back into the US now that inventories are depleted, that's helping us there.

    最近我們對鋁市場抱有一些樂觀情緒,隨著庫存減少,有可能將部分鋁運回美國,這對我們有所幫助。

  • I would say the service is an important one I want to call out that's been helping us win on the domestic Intermodal side and we're leveraging the strength of our franchise in Western Canada around the NGLs and the frac sand and little weak right now, but we do see that coming back.

    我想強調這項服務的重要性,它幫助我們在國內多式聯運領域取得了成功。我們正在利用我們在加拿大西部天然氣凝液和壓裂砂領域的特許經營優勢,雖然目前這方面略顯疲軟,但我們預計它會恢復過來。

  • So hopefully that answers your question.

    希望這能解答你的疑問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

    Scott Group,Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks. Good morning. Ghislain, can you just clarify first if the depreciation is a one-time thing or if that's the new run rate. And then Tracy, I just have a bigger picture question, if I think over a long period of time, the beauty of rails was the ability for earnings to decouple from volume and like rails could grow earnings even with negative volume, right?

    嘿,謝謝。早安.吉斯蘭,你能否先澄清一下,這筆折舊是一次性的,還是新的運行率?然後,Tracy,我還有一個更宏觀的問題,如果從長遠來看,鐵路的優勢在於其收益能夠與銷量脫鉤,即使銷量為負,鐵路也能實現收益增長,對嗎?

  • Because they had pricing and productivity and buyback. And I'm guessing you'd say you still have pricing and productivity and buyback, but I'm guessing I'm hearing a message of like [lines] aren't growing so earnings aren't really growing.

    因為他們有定價、生產效率和回購機制。我猜您會說您仍然有定價、生產力和回購等因素,但我感覺我聽到的訊息是,生產線沒有成長,所以收入也沒有真正成長。

  • Like, is the historical sort of algorithm sort of broken or is this sort of we've got some unique headwinds. I just want to sort of really understand like the big picture message here. Thank you.

    例如,是傳統的演算法出了問題,還是我們遇到了一些獨特的阻力?我只是想真正理解一下這裡面的大意。謝謝。

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, thanks, Scott, for the question. Let me answer the depreciation question first and then we'll turn it over to Tracy. So when you look at the total variance of depreciation, it's composed of two things. One, the favorable relative of depreciation study. And as we do these on a regular basis and we try to push the use of our assets and the life of our assets as far as we can. So that is about a quarter of the variants.

    是的,謝謝你的提問,斯科特。我先回答折舊問題,再交給崔西。所以,當你查看折舊總變異數時,它由兩個部分組成。一、折舊研究的有利相對因素。而且,我們會定期進行這些操作,並盡可能延長資產的使用時間和使用壽命。所以這大約佔所有變體的四分之一。

  • And then three quarter of it is in fact we over depreciated the purchase price location of some of the acquisitions that we've done in the past and we discovered this in Q4 and we corrected it. That's about three quarter of the variants.

    其中四分之三實際上是我們高估了過去一些收購項目的購買價格,我們在第四季度發現了這個問題並進行了修正。這大約佔所有變體的四分之三。

  • Maybe to you, Tracy on the second piece.

    或許對你來說,Tracy,第二件作品。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, Scott. So, interesting question. So I would say that no, it's not decoupling, there's some unique things that are going on right now. If you think about the unusual impact of the tariff situation, particularly the tariff situation between Canada and the United States and the outside impact that's had on a couple of our sectors.

    早安,史考特。這真是一個有趣的問題。所以我認為,不,這不是脫鉤,而是目前發生了一些特殊的事情。如果你考慮到關稅情勢的異常影響,特別是加拿大和美國之間的關稅情勢,以及它對我們幾個產業造成的外部影響。

  • Janet's gone through them and force products and on metal, that could correct itself over time. But right now, we're looking at pretty significant mix headwinds which wouldn't be normally something you'd see.

    Janet已經研究過這些產品和強制產品,以及金屬製品,隨著時間的推移,這種情況可能會自行修正。但目前,我們面臨相當大的混合不利因素,這通常是不會發生的。

  • The other thing is we look at how the economies are moving, we're getting some extraordinary movements and things like CapEx, so the underlying assumptions that's something that we deal with, of course more than most of our peers and so those are moving around.

    另一方面,我們會觀察經濟的走向,我們會遇到一些非同尋常的波動,例如資本支出,所以我們當然比大多數同行更關注這些基本假設,因此這些假設也在不斷變化。

  • So here's what we are doing. We're using this time of a quieter macro and while the tariff situation gets worked out to get, pretty fit, we're getting near, we are focusing on structural cost reduction, this create that operating leverage that you're talking about and it'll be considerable, but it'll be, operating leverage on and earnings leverage.

    所以,我們正在這樣做。我們正利用這段宏觀經濟相對平靜的時期,在關稅問題得到解決、形勢趨於穩定之際,我們正專注於結構性成本削減,這將產生您所說的經營槓桿效應,而且這種效應將是相當大的,它將是經營槓桿效應和盈利槓桿效應。

  • And so, as I look at our network and our opportunities going forward, it's pre compelling. We sit on top, as I said, of a pretty strong natural resource base. Continuing to develop its across [ag], it's across mining, it's across the energy sectors, across some of the industrial sector, and these are the commodities that the world needs, we've got a pretty privileged position in the routes into the North American markets.

    因此,當我審視我們的網路和未來的機會時,我感到非常振奮。正如我所說,我們擁有相當強大的自然資源基礎。我們持續在農業、採礦業、能源業和一些工業領域發展,而這些都是世界需要的商品,因此我們在進入北美市場的通路中擁有相當優越的地位。

  • We've got, an unparalleled path to ports, that access all of the global markets and so we're positioned pretty well whether it's, at the exports or whether it's the import of of consumer goods to North America.

    我們擁有通往港口的無與倫比的路徑,可以進入所有全球市場,因此無論是在出口方面,還是在向北美進口消費品方面,我們都處於非常有利的地位。

  • So these opportunities we've seen them start and we expect them to continue to accelerate. We've got [passive], we've done the investments in our network, so we're getting really fit, we've got considerable leverage and as you see the tariff situation normalized. Hopefully that'll happen this year we'll see.

    我們已經看到這些機會開始出現,並且預計它們將繼續加速發展。我們已經有了被動收入,我們已經對我們的網路進行了投資,所以我們現在狀況非常好,我們擁有相當大的槓桿,而且正如你所看到的,關稅情況已經正常化。希望今年就能實現,我們拭目以待。

  • You're going to see us some, you see that leverage start to manifest, so we're pretty excited about that.

    你會看到我們的一些成果,你會看到這種優勢開始顯現,所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

    Fadi Chamoun,BMO資本市場。

  • Fadi Chamoun - Analyst

    Fadi Chamoun - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. Good morning. So, Janet is mixed in '26. Kind of flat versus last year, worse or slightly better or just want some clarification on that.

    好的,謝謝。早安.所以,Janet 是 26 年混血兒。與去年相比,情況基本上持平,是更糟還是略好,或者只是想了解一下具體情況。

  • And the question I have is, so when you look at the outlook over next whatever year two or even three. Where do you see CN having differentiated opportunities to grow volume, to grow the business. What's a segment or what market do you feel that you have an opportunity to be differentiated versus the economy and kind of compared to the market.

    我的問題是,當你展望未來兩三年的前景。您認為CN在哪些方面擁有差異化的機會來提升銷售量、拓展業務?您認為在哪個細分市場或哪個市場中,您有機會與經濟環境和市場整體狀況區分開來?

  • Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Patty, for the question. So let me start with mix. And I want to take a minute to remind everyone, there's kind of two aspects to mix.

    謝謝帕蒂的提問。那麼,就讓我從混音開始吧。我想花點時間提醒大家,這裡有兩個面向需要結合。

  • There's the enterprise level where you know you see volumes move around let's say between forest products, Intermodal metals and minerals, but there's also mixed within each segment.

    在企業層面,你可以看到貨物數量在林產品、多式聯運金屬和礦產等之間流動,但每個細分市場內部也有混合流動。

  • So for example, if we look at forest products and we think about lumber, even within that segment, we may be skewing more to shorter haul moves and longer haul moves, just as some of the geography changes occur related to the tariff impact. So, in terms of thinking about, the '26 versus '25 and '25 versus '24, right now it's looking to be about the same level of impact, I think that's how I would quantify it.

    例如,如果我們觀察林產品,再想想木材,即使在這個細分市場中,我們可能更傾向於短途運輸和長途運輸,就像一些地理變化與關稅影響有關一樣。所以,就思考「26 年與 25 年」以及「25 年與 24 年」而言,目前看來它們的影響程度大致相同,我認為這就是我量化它的方式。

  • But again, we're kind of forecasting on a forecast and added more detailed levels so you know you're going to see some of that come through as you follow the weekly volumes and where they show up.

    但是,我們實際上是在預測的基礎上進行預測,並添加了更詳細的級別,所以你知道,當你關注每週的交易量及其出現位置時,你會看到其中的一些結果。

  • In terms of where I think we have a great opportunity to differentiate ourselves going forward is really the northern nature of our franchise, the exposure that we have to Canada's natural resource base, and the -- overall Canadian focus on diversifying trade and getting our products to new markets.

    我認為,我們未來實現差異化發展的絕佳機會在於我們特許經營的北方特性,我們與加拿大自然資源基礎的聯繫,以及加拿大整體上對貿易多元化和將我們的產品推向新市場的重視。

  • I would call on in particular the BC north, which is just a tremendous region for us, including the Montney Shale which has one of the largest unconventional reserves. So that's great for us from two perspectives, it's a natural gas liquids ex-force and it's the frac sand as an input.

    我特別想呼籲關注卑詩省北部地區,這對我們來說是一個非常重要的地區,包括擁有最大非常規油氣儲量的蒙特尼頁岩。從兩個角度來看,這對我們來說是件好事,它既是天然氣液體的來源,也是壓裂砂的投入。

  • I would call out on a longer-term trend our exposure to Canadian grain and the yields that we're seeing improve there in the canola crushers, and I would particularly do that now in the context of some of the trade resolutions that we've seen with China, as we think about 2027.

    我想指出一個更長期的趨勢,即我們對加拿大穀物的敞口以及我們看到的油菜籽壓榨機產量的提高,尤其是在我們展望 2027 年,並考慮到我們與中國達成的一些貿易決議的情況下,我尤其要強調這一點。

  • I like our exposure as well to potash, and I would say, the just natural resources is as these progress things like critical minerals, I think that Canada has a lot of and just finding new markets.

    我也很看好我們在鉀肥領域的投資,而且我認為,隨著這些領域的發展,像關鍵礦產這樣的自然資源,加拿大擁有很多資源,並且正在開拓新的市場。

  • So there's a lot to be optimistic, Fadi, I would say as we start to think about how we get into '27 and beyond. Thanks for the question

    所以,法迪,我認為有很多值得樂觀的地方,當我們開始思考如何邁入 2027 年及以後。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

    克里斯‧韋瑟比,富國銀行。

  • Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

    Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Maybe a question on the guidance as we sort of understand it seems like volumes may be a little bit more back half weighted. In the [CapEx] is maybe a little bit more of a headwind in the first half.

    是啊,謝謝。各位早安。或許可以問一下關於業績指引的問題,因為我們大致了解到,成交量似乎更集中在下半年。上半年,資本支出方面可能會遇到一些阻力。

  • So it's kind of the way to think about it maybe down earnings in the first half, potentially higher earnings in the second half, kind of gets you that little bit of a premium I guess maybe the buyback could be something that we need to consider in there too, but maybe a little bit of help with the shape of 2026.

    所以,我們可以這樣想:上半年獲利可能會下降,下半年獲利可能會上升,這樣就能獲得一點溢價。我想,股票回購也是我們需要考慮的因素,但這或許能對 2026 年的情況有所幫助。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Chris, I think you've got the contour of the year, pretty good. It will be a softer front end given the compare last year and we're seeing what Janet went over in some of the volumes. We did have some one-time benefits from our cost reduction efforts last year in the first quarter, so you're going to see that lighter and it'll continue to improve over the course of the year. Do you think anything to add?

    克里斯,我覺得你對今年的情況掌握得相當不錯。考慮到去年的情況,今年的前端會比較柔和,我們也看到了 Janet 在一些卷冊中提到的內容。去年第一季度,我們的成本削減措施確實帶來了一些一次性效益,所以你會看到這部分有所減輕,並且在今年內會繼續改善。您覺得還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, on buyback, Chris, absolutely as you know we temporarily going to increase our leverage from 2.5 times to 2.7 times. We want to take advantage of the cheap share price, and we're going to try to transload that as much as we can. And then we plan on going back to 2.5 times leverage in 2027. Thanks for the question

    是的,關於股票回購,克里斯,如你所知,我們將暫時把槓桿率從 2.5 倍提高到 2.7 倍。我們希望利用股價低廉的優勢,並盡可能進行股票轉讓。然後我們計劃在 2027 年恢復到 2.5 倍槓桿率。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

    沃爾特‧斯普拉克林 (Walter Spracklin),加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

  • Walter Spracklin - Analyst

    Walter Spracklin - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks very much, operator. Good morning, everyone. Back to you, Janet, on volume. When I look at your 2026 outlook slide, I'm seeing, petroleum and chemicals up. You've got US grain up, you've got Canadian grain up, you've got domestic Intermodal up. Those are big segments, the ones you have down is just forestry and fertilizer, so not quite as big.

    是的,非常感謝接線生。各位早安。珍妮特,音量的問題還是交給你了。當我查看你們的 2026 年展望幻燈片時,我看到石油和化學產業將會上漲。美國糧食供應充足,加拿大糧食供應充足,國內多式聯運也恢復。這些都是很大的領域,你提到的只是林業和肥料,所以規模沒那麼大。

  • So when I eyeball that slide, it feels like 2026 volumes are more up-ish rather than flattish. So I'm just curious if you could, is there something I'm missing there and maybe flag some of your strongest upside down side declines, and you could also is Prince Rupert, would you say that's still is that running at the [10%] run rate that you were, you were hoping forward there when you had us up there last time.

    所以當我粗略看這張投影片時,感覺 2026 年的銷售成長趨勢是略微上升而不是趨於平穩。所以我很好奇,你能否指出我是否遺漏了什麼,以及一些你認為跌勢最猛的下跌行為。另外,魯伯特王子港的跌勢是否仍然像上次你預測的那樣,保持著10%的漲幅?

  • Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

  • I -- okay. So, I mean -- I --there's some art involved in the slide, obviously Walter, but appreciate your question. We see the greatest strength, in ag and energy. So these are the two that I would call out and on the energy side it's really the petroleum and chemicals. And again, kind of one level deeper, it's the NGLs, the refined petroleum products and hopefully towards the end of the year we see some incremental crude come on as well.

    我——好的。所以,我的意思是——顯然,滑梯的設計中蘊含著一些藝術性,沃爾特,但我很感謝你的提問。我們看到最大的優勢在於農業和能源領域。所以,我要重點指出這兩點,能源方面主要是石油和化學工業。再深入一層,就是天然氣凝液、精煉石油產品,希望今年底我們也能看到一些原油逐步上市。

  • Now some of that growth depends of course on our customers and some of them are ramping up. And so, you always want to be a little bit careful about how aggressively you forecast somebody else's ramp up. So I would say that about the business.

    當然,部分成長取決於我們的客戶,而其中一些客戶正在擴大規模。所以,在預測他人業務成長速度時,一定要謹慎一些,不要過於激進。所以,關於這家公司,我的看法就是這樣。

  • In terms of, where things are expected to be weaker. I'm going to still call out the forest products as well as the metals, and Intermodal, I think you know this one's a bit tough to call right now and it really depends on the health of the consumer, I am pleased that the resiliency of the consumer, particularly on the US side that we've seen so far.

    就預期會比較薄弱的方面而言。我還要提一下林產品、金屬和多式聯運,我想你們也知道,現在多式聯運的情況很難說,這真的取決於消費者的健康狀況。我很高興看到消費者的韌性,尤其是在美國這邊,到目前為止我們已經看到了這一點。

  • But the tariff situation has made that segment a little harder to predict and we've kind a gone through these boom-and-bust cycles. So, I've got some question marks around that.

    但關稅情勢使得這一領域更難預測,我們也經歷了這種繁榮與蕭條的循環。所以,我對這一點還有些疑問。

  • Really pleased with Prince Rupert. And really pleased with the growth that we're seeing there in terms of the Gemini volumes in terms of the overall performance. And I'm really excited as well now that I have the mic, I'll take a few more minutes just to talk about a few other things that we see on the horizon, especially for those that have the chance to visit Prince Rupert last year.

    非常滿意魯珀特王子港。就整體業績而言,我們對 Gemini 銷售的成長感到非常滿意。現在我拿著麥克風,也感到非常興奮,我想再花幾分鐘時間談談我們展望未來的一些其他事情,特別是對於去年有機會參觀魯珀特王子港的人來說。

  • The connect port facility is continuing to ramp up, so you'll remember that that's really an innovative large scale export transloading facility where we have the opportunity to do different types of commodities, be it grain, be it plastics, and that expansion is really expected to take hold late this year, maybe a little bit into 2027.

    連接港口設施正在不斷擴建,您應該記得,這是一個真正具有創新性的大型出口轉運設施,我們有機會處理不同類型的商品,無論是穀物還是塑料,預計擴建工程將在今年晚些時候真正落地,也許會持續到 2027 年。

  • We didn't get time to spend while we were up at Rupert around [Intermodex], but I want to call that one out as well, so that's really import transloading, and that gives shippers the ability to consolidate and mix ocean containers into 53 foot domestic units so both of these are examples of how we're continuing to invest in the end to end supply chain and our intramodal ecosystem at Prince Rupert.

    我們在魯珀特參加 [Intermodex] 期間沒有時間多花些時間,但我也想特別提一下,這實際上是進口轉運,它使托運人能夠將海運集裝箱合併並混合到 53 英尺的國內集裝箱中,所以這兩個例子都說明了我們如何在魯珀特王子港繼續投資於端到端供應鏈和我們的多聯機。

  • So again, I see a lot of optimism on the horizon around that if we can get past some of the near-term macro issues. Thanks, Walter

    所以,如果能夠克服一些短期宏觀問題,我認為前景一片光明。謝謝你,沃特

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Ossenbeck, JP Morgan.

    Brian Ossenbeck,摩根大通。

  • Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

    Brian Ossenbeck - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So, maybe be Tracy, in terms of looking at the last couple of years, you highlighted a bunch of the headwinds that the business had experienced, but you know we're still gone from double-digit earnings growth to mid single, now flattish, clearly including the headwind on FX, which will be volatile.

    嘿,早安。感謝您回答這個問題。所以,Tracy,回顧過去幾年,你強調了公司​​面臨的一些不利因素,但你知道,我們已經從兩位數的盈利增長降至個位數中段,現在又趨於平穩,這顯然包括外匯波動帶來的不利因素。

  • So just wanted to understand maybe a little bit more in terms of, what you think has changed or maybe not changed from the underlying earnings power in the business and I'm also wondering is this time we need to spend a little bit more on CapEx through the cycle.

    所以我想更深入地了解一下,您認為公司潛在的獲利能力發生了哪些變化,或者哪些方面沒有變化?我還想知道,這次我們是否需要在整個週期中增加一些資本支出。

  • I know it's coming down this year, but I think most of that's on equipment and other things like that. So maybe just some comments on the earnings power and the underlying investment you think you need to be there. Thank you.

    我知道今年會有所下降,但我認為大部分降幅都集中在設備和其他類似方面。所以,或許您可以就盈利能力以及您認為需要進行的基礎投資發表一些看法。謝謝。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks for the question. So as we look at -- what we've been doing over the last year in the last couple of years, you've seen us invest in the network. We had some really kind of important pinch points if we think about what our portfolio base, what our commodity base is going to look like going forward.

    謝謝你的提問。所以,當我們回顧過去一年以及過去幾年所做的事情時,你們會看到我們對網路進行了投資。如果我們思考一下我們未來的投資組合基礎和商品基礎會是什麼樣子,就會發現我們遇到了一些非常重要的瓶頸。

  • We've got the essence sub now 63% double track, we've added considerable capacity to the Vancouver corridor. We've got work going on at the Prince Rupert. We did a very high return project around the [Eugene Lee].

    我們現在已經實現了 63% 的雙軌化,為溫哥華走廊增加了相當大的運力。我們在魯珀特王子港有工作正在進行中。我們圍繞著以下方面做了一個回報非常高的項目:[尤金李]

  • So we've got our network, set up now for the what we see happening in what Janet has laid out over time. That's been an important part of us getting set up for the future. And as you've mentioned, you know we've done a lot of work on the locomotive fleet.

    所以,我們的網路已經搭建完畢,現在正按照 Janet 隨著時間的推移所製定的計劃進行運作。這對我們為未來做好準備至關重要。正如您所提到的,我們也知道我們在機車車隊方面做了很多工作。

  • We've gone from the oldest local off we in the industry to middle of the pack pack and continue to work a little bit on that over the time and we've got most of our railcar fleets where we need them, so we're poised.

    我們已經從業內歷史最悠久的本地企業發展成為中游企業,並且隨著時間的推移,我們將繼續在這方面努力,我們的大部分鐵路車輛車隊也已經達到我們所需的水平,所以我們已經做好了準備。

  • Part two of that has been really taking a look at [abstractional cost] you know over the past 18 months, we have run really hard at structural cost reduction and we found along the way, one offs and just in year, cost reduction we'll always look into those as well.

    第二部分主要關注[抽象成本],你知道,在過去的 18 個月裡,我們一直在努力降低結構性成本,並且在此過程中,我們發現了一些一次性成本和年度成本削減,我們也會一直關注這些成本削減。

  • And so the engine our underlying margin engine is healthier this year than it was last year and it's going to be healthier next year. So we are right now under the weight of a pretty substantial mixed impact and the tariff -- the tariff impacts which I'm hoping will normalize a little bit as we get through the USMCA review, over the course of what I hope will be the next year.

    因此,我們基本的利潤引擎今年比去年更健康,明年也會更健康。所以我們現在正承受著相當大的混合影響和關稅的重壓——我希望隨著我們完成美墨加協定審查,關稅的影響將在接下來的一年內有所改善。

  • So I think we're poised, we're exactly where we want to be. We have a Western network that is very attractive from the perspective of exports in the global markets and imports out of Asia. We've got an ag sector that's incredibly strong and growing. The mining the Janet talked about, is set to set to continue to grow as we go forward.

    所以我覺得我們已經準備就緒,我們正處於我們想要的位置。從全球市場的出口和從亞洲的進口來看,我們擁有一個非常有吸引力的西方網路。我們的農業部門實力雄厚,而且發展迅速。Janet所提到的採礦業,將會隨著時間的推移而持續發展壯大。

  • So I like where we are, we sit atop, an incredible resource base that's going to continue to to develop. Thanks for your question.

    所以我很滿意我們現在所處的位置,我們擁有令人難以置信的資源基礎,而且這個基礎還會繼續發展。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

    科納克·古普塔,加拿大豐業銀行。

  • Konark Gupta - Analyst

    Konark Gupta - Analyst

  • Thanks, and just a quick clarification before I ask my question, on the EPS, I don't think you guys touch upon the pension, if there's any nuance there. And just so you expecting the buybacks to be net accreted to EPS or not.

    謝謝。在我提問之前,我想先確認一下,關於EPS,我想你們應該沒有涉及退休金,如果這方面有什麼細微差別的話。所以,您認為股票回購是否會淨增加每股盈餘?

  • And my question on free cash, actually, you talk about conversion being higher, if you look at the '25, I think the conversion on netting income was about 70% and if you just add on the 500 CapEx reduction that gets you to 80%. Is there anything else we should be thinking about once we cash conversion in '26.

    關於自由現金流的問題,實際上,您提到轉換率更高,如果您看一下 2025 年的數據,我認為淨收入轉換率約為 70%,如果您再加上 500 的資本支出減少,那就達到了 80%。2026 年現金轉換之後,我們還應該考慮其他什麼嗎?

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So thanks, Konark. On pension, this in 2025 pension was versus 2024 was a tailwind of about $60 million. If discount rates and interest rates remain where they are, pension will be a tailwind of $40 million in 2026 versus 2025.

    所以,謝謝你,科納克。就退休金而言,2025 年的退休金比 2024 年的退休金增加了約 6,000 萬美元。如果折現率和利率保持不變,2026 年退休金將比 2025 年增加 4,000 萬美元。

  • On share buyback, if you look at it versus after financing costs and where interest rates are, it's very slightly accretive to earnings, not a whole lot.

    就股票回購而言,如果將其與融資成本和當前利率進行比較,就會發現它對收益的增幅非常小,並不大。

  • On the free cash flow conversion, we expected with the reduction of capital, obviously to improve. If you look at free cash conversion in 2025, it was 70%, so we'll improve on that.

    關於自由現金流轉換率,我們預期隨著資本的減少,情況顯然會有所改善。如果看一下 2025 年的自由現金流轉換率,是 70%,所以我們會在此基礎上有所提高。

  • Got to take into consideration when you look at cash that we have a sizable cash tax payment on a year-by-year basis in '26 versus 2025 because and this is the reason why our effective tax rate is actually increasing it because in our modeling we expect more profits to be taxed in Canada at a slightly higher tax rate than it is in the US.

    在考慮現金流時,必須考慮到 2026 年與 2025 年相比,我們每年需要繳納相當可觀的現金稅款,這也是我們實際稅率上升的原因,因為在我們的模型中,我們預計在加拿大繳納的利潤將比在美國繳納的稅率略高。

  • So when you put all of this together, it reconciles to the numbers that you're coming up with. Thanks for the question

    所以當你把所有這些加在一起時,就與你得出的數字相吻合了。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

    Ken Hoexter,美國銀行。

  • Ken Hoexter - Analyst

    Ken Hoexter - Analyst

  • Great, good morning, great job on the OR for the quarter looking for more next year. I guess Tracy, let me get you back on your [Norfolk] on the, the merger, right? You mentioned you're spending millions into the process. You target significant concessions, you said.

    太好了,早安,本季手術室的工作做得非常棒,期待明年能取得更大的成就。我想Tracy,讓我帶你回到你在諾福克的合併事宜上,對吧?你提到你在這個過程中投入了數百萬美元。你說過,你的目標是爭取重大讓步。

  • Can you talk about what that means? Like, is that protecting sustained access? Is it a dollar amount? I just want to understand when you say significant, what does that mean?

    你能解釋一下這意味著什麼嗎?這樣能保障持續取得嗎?是美元金額嗎?我只是想弄清楚,您說的「意義重大」是什麼意思?

  • And then same thing for USMCA, just big picture, if you're going to go on negotiations, what is the risk here? What is the benefits that you seek come out of this or is the base case that it's just renewed and things stay the same. Thanks.

    那麼對於美墨加協定(USMCA)也是如此,從大局來看,如果要進行談判,風險是什麼?您希望從中獲得什麼好處?或者,基本情況只是更新換代,一切照舊?謝謝。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Ken. That's a couple of big questions. So, first on the merger, listen, we are a very strong proponent of competition and as we look at this application we have great concerns and a lot of questions around how it does what it's supposed to do, including when it comes to the standard of increasing rail competition which is a pretty big bar.

    謝謝你,肯。這是兩個重要的問題。首先,關於合併,我們非常支持競爭,但當我們審視這項申請時,我們非常擔憂,也有很多疑問,例如它如何達到預期效果,包括提高鐵路競爭的標準,這是一個相當高的標準。

  • And it, in our view, falls considerably short it portrays the merger as a complete end to end in spite of pretty obvious areas of overlap it, they didn't use all the data they didn't give a projected market share of the new entity and therefore how big it would be in the potential harm that would come from market power.

    在我們看來,這份報告遠遠不夠全面,它將合併描述為一個完整的端到端過程,儘管存在非常明顯的重疊領域;他們沒有使用所有數據;他們沒有給出新實體的預計市場份額,因此也沒有給出市場力量可能造成的潛在危害有多大。

  • So these are only examples that they suggest the GAAP in the assessment of par, and that's importantly, I think. It failed to propose conditions that would, adequately preserve competition and it said nothing on how it was going to enhance competition, save an open gateway model that I think has been proven not to work in a gateway commitment that applies to by our assessment just a very small fraction of the impacted traffic and not at all the Canadian railways.

    所以這些只是他們建議在評估股價時採用公認會計原則的例子,我認為這一點很重要。它未能提出能夠充分維護競爭的條件,也沒有說明將如何加強競爭,只是提出了一種開放門戶模式,我認為這種模式已被證明行不通,而且根據我們的評估,這種門戶承諾只適用於受影響交通量的一小部分,根本不適用於加拿大鐵路。

  • And it expires with an emerged entity and of course it impacts are permanent.

    它會隨著新實體的出現而失效,當然,它的影響是永久性的。

  • So should this proceed, I think there needs to be a lot and that'll lead it to more information on the impact to the shippers across the network, and what I believe is a much more substantive portfolio of concessions to mitigate those impacts.

    因此,如果此事繼續推進,我認為需要投入大量資源,這將導致獲得更多關於對整個網絡中托運人的影響的信息,以及我認為更為實質性的一系列讓步措施來減輕這些影響。

  • If we are held to [ESTB] new rules, so as we look at it from a CN perspective. And we've run a number of scenarios as you would expect and based on the information that we have, what we think their intent is, which, we need a lot more on that.

    如果我們要遵守 [ESTB] 新規則,那麼從 CN 的角度來看就是如此。正如你所預料的那樣,我們已經模擬了很多場景,並且根據我們掌握的信息,我們認為他們的意圖是…,但是,我們還需要更多這方面的資訊。

  • There will be an impact to competitive access for our customers and for our business now our assessment would suggest that the impact on CN will be less than that of the other row.

    這對我們的客戶和我們的業務的競爭性准入將會造成影響,但根據我們的評估,對加拿大國家鐵路公司(CN)的影響將小於對其他行的影響。

  • But it won't be zero and so if this merger is to proceed, we intend to rigorously pursue confessions that will protect and improve competition, and that means protecting the interest of our customers in our network and are the competitive integrity of our network as we think about it.

    但不會是零,因此如果此次合併要進行,我們將嚴格尋求能夠保護和改善競爭的坦白,這意味著保護我們網路中客戶的利益,以及我們網路的競爭完整性。

  • And we believe that there's opportunities that this is done properly. For us, for our network, for our operations to play a bigger role, an extended role in providing options to our customers in the regions that you know are going to have that negative would be impacted by the merger.

    我們相信,如果能妥善完成這項工作,就有機會實現。對我們而言,對我們的網路而言,對我們的營運而言,在為那些您知道會受到合併負面影響的地區提供更多選擇方面發揮更大的作用、更廣泛的作用至關重要。

  • So, we think our network can be very helpful there. So they've got a lot of work to do. I'm interested in seeing what they come forward with, how they will step into this question of how they will not only offset the competitive impact but also increased competition.

    所以,我們認為我們的人脈在那裡會很有幫助。所以他們還有很多工作要做。我很想看看他們會提出什麼方案,他們將如何應對這個問題,不僅要抵消競爭的影響,還要應對日益激烈的競爭。

  • It's going to be really interesting. We're ready. Our response will be informed by this reveal and in which I understand we will expect for very long. But we're not getting ahead of them.

    這將會非常有趣。我們準備好了。我們將根據這項披露做出回應,據我了解,我們將在很長一段時間內對此保持警惕。但我們並沒有領先他們。

  • In the meantime, the rest of the organization is focused on running the day-to-day business which is equally important.

    同時,公司其他部門則專注於日常業務的運營,這同樣至關重要。

  • The second question around the USMCA, this is, right now, as we've seen the impact there's certain sectors that have been impacted, and some of them like [forcepars] quite significantly impacted, and we're continue to work.

    關於美墨加協定的第二個問題是,目前我們已經看到,某些產業受到了影響,其中一些產業(例如[forcepars])受到了相當大的影響,我們將繼續努力。

  • Janet and team are working very closely with all of our customers in those sectors to try to to get their goods into alternative markets. We've had some success on that. As we look forward, it's very difficult to say. Maybe you have a better view, but it's very difficult to say how this will work out.

    Janet 和她的團隊正與我們這些行業的所有客戶密切合作,努力將他們的產品打入其他市場。我們在這方面取得了一些成功。展望未來,很難說。或許你的看法更準確,但很難說事情最終會如何發展。

  • I read the paper every day. I expect it's going to be bumpy and there is a prescribed timeline. July is an important month on the review of the USMCA, at the end of the day, as Saner heads kind of prevail. We know the -- I think we all understand the importance of the relationship between these two countries and how much we depend upon each other, and I'm hopeful for a productive agreement.

    我每天都讀報紙。我預計過程會比較坎坷,而且是有既定時間表的。7 月是審查美墨加協定的重要月份,最終,理智的一方會佔上風。我想我們都明白這兩個國家關係的重要性,以及我們彼此依賴的程度,我希望能夠達成一項富有成效的協議。

  • And now, what that means is, I mean, the most important, the biggest risk around the USMCA is uncertainty. There's investment that sitting on the sidelines, in our customers included, wondering under what rules they'll be investing in the future and whether they should do that and I think that as we get an agreement, if it brings a kind of uncertainty that we all need, then that is an important first step.

    而現在,這意味著,我的意思是,圍繞美墨加協定的最重要、最大的風險是不確定性。包括我們的客戶在內,有很多投資者都在觀望,他們想知道未來將按照什麼規則進行投資,以及他們是否應該這樣做。我認為,如果我們達成協議,而協議帶來了我們都需要的某種不確定性,那麼這將是重要的第一步。

  • There is an opportunity for some mitigation on those sectors, to a reduction of impact on those sectors that have been impacted, forest products, steel and others. And then of course there's always the risk that there's certain other sectors that will have to deal with the level of tariffs and depending on what those levels are and which sectors they are, we are working with all of our industries, all of our customers to understand the range of options that they (inaudible)

    對於受影響的行業,例如林產品、鋼鐵等,存在一些緩解措施,以減少其受到的影響。當然,其他一些行業也可能面臨關稅上漲的風險。根據具體的關稅水平和涉及的行業,我們正在與所有行業和客戶合作,以了解他們可選擇的方案。(聽不清楚)

  • And so it's going to be a busy year from that perspective. I'm not equipped to tell you what to expect on where it will land. I think the good news is that we'll help folks at the table this year and hopefully come up with an agreement. Thanks for your question

    所以從這個角度來看,今年將會是忙碌的一年。我無法預測它會落在哪裡。我認為好消息是,我們今年將幫助談判桌上的各方人士,並希望能夠達成協議。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Vernon, Bernstein.

    大衛‧佛農,伯恩斯坦。

  • David Vernon - Analyst

    David Vernon - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning and thanks for taking the question. So, Janet, maybe I wonder if you can help us kind of figure out how big of an impact, this pair of stuff has had on overall RTMs. It sounds like the Western Canadian stuff is -- has been growing. It's just been offset by the tariff losses.

    嗨,早上好,謝謝你回答這個問題。所以,Janet,我想請你幫我們弄清楚這兩件事對整體 RTM 產生了多大的影響。聽起來加拿大西部的那部分一直在成長。只是被關稅損失抵銷了。

  • I'm just trying to figure out like if you were to look at '24 to the end of your year plan at '26. Like how much of your business is kind of come off purely because of tariffs. I think it'd be helpful to just understand kind of what the relative weight of the changes in the trade regime we've had on your business.

    我只是想弄清楚,如果你把 2024 年的情況看作是到 2026 年底的計劃。例如,你的業務有多少因為關稅而減少了。我認為,了解貿易體制的變化對貴公司業務的相對影響程度會很有幫助。

  • Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, David, for the question. So I don't have the volume numbers at my fingertips, but what I did say in the remarks is that [4 2025], the tariff impact was, in excess of $350 million and the IR team can kind of help you with that after the quarter just to kind of translate that back to volume.

    謝謝你的提問,大衛。所以我手頭上沒有具體的銷售數據,但我在發言中提到,[2025 年 4 月] 關稅影響超過 3.5 億美元,IR 團隊可以在季度結束後幫助您將其轉化為銷售。

  • Obviously it's been most impactful as we said in forest products and metals and minerals. Feeling very popular today with the questions. I think the next question should go to Pat for anyone who's listening out there.

    正如我們所說,它對林產品、金屬和礦產行業的影響顯然最大。今天問的問題讓我覺得自己很受歡迎。我認為下一個問題應該要問帕特,希望有聽眾朋友能聽到。

  • Patrick Whitehead - Senior Vice President, Network Operations

    Patrick Whitehead - Senior Vice President, Network Operations

  • And hopefully it's going to be a tough one.

    希望這會是一場硬仗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

    拉維‧香克爾,摩根士丹利。

  • Ravi Shanker - Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Analyst

  • Greet this morning, everyone. Maybe this is for Janet or Ghislain. I know you've changed your guiding philosophy like you said last quarter. But when you look at the delta between your guide and your peers, particularly your direct peer. Based on what you can see so far, kind of is that all down to your new approach to guiding, or is there something, idiosyncratically different with your end market approach or your comps relative to others this year.

    大家早安。或許這是給珍妮特或吉斯蘭的。我知道你像上個季度說的那樣,改變了你的指導理念。但當你審視你的導師和你的同齡人,特別是你的直接同儕之間的差距時,你會發現…根據你目前所看到的,這是否完全歸功於你新的指導方法,或者說,你今年的終端市場策略或比較對象與其他公司相比有什麼獨特的不同之處?

  • Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

  • I'm going to start off with that, Ravi, listen, we did a lot of thinking around guidance and we've seen over the last number of years in what is a very volatile kind of environment. A number of peers and including us that have had to change guidance with draw guidance or just misguidance.

    拉維,我先從這一點說起。聽著,我們對指導方針進行了很多思考,而且在過去幾年裡,我們看到了一個非常不穩定的環境。包括我們自己在內的許多同行都必須修改指導方針,因為之前的指導方針要么是錯誤的,要么是錯誤的。

  • And so that's not a very productive way to engage with you guys or way to engage in with our business. So we think that this is the right model for right now with this level of uncertainty. Next year is if we're in a different position, we will look at maybe something more precise.

    所以,這並不是與你們溝通或開展業務的有效方式。因此,我們認為在當前這種不確定程度下,這是合適的模型。明年,如果情況有所不同,我們會考慮採取更精確的措施。

  • But as we look forward we think that this is given the unique volatility that we're facing around the tariffs, the tariff impact that Janet has gone through, the currency and how it's moving this year in particular, we think this is the right way to go.

    但展望未來,考慮到我們目前面臨的關稅波動性、Janet所經歷的關稅影響、貨幣及其今年的走勢,我們認為這是正確的做法。

  • And if we're looking, if you're talking about us and our Canadian peer, I would say that over time as our networks and our business have evolved, we would have more exposure to Canada then I expect they would.

    如果要比較我們和我們的加拿大同行,我認為隨著時間的推移,隨著我們的網絡和業務的發展,我們在加拿大的影響力會比他們更大。

  • [Other] suffer, I'm sure, as we have, and I think they mentioned it on their call as well, the impact on tariffs. Should you have anything to add?

    我相信其他人也和我們一樣遭受了損失,而且我認為他們在電話會議上也提到了關稅的影響。您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, maybe give a little bit of visibility on some of the one-timers that I talked about in in my prepared remarks. So obviously having a smaller capital envelope, it impacts capital credits, and I would, it's sizable. I would quantify it to be in the range of about $100 million.

    是的,或許可以稍微介紹一下我在準備好的發言稿中提到的那些一次性事件。顯然,較小的資本額度會影響資本抵免,而且影響相當大。我估計金額大約在1億美元左右。

  • That will be mostly in labor and fringe benefits and a little bit in PNSM as well. When you look at other income, we have about $100 million in 2025. Now we always have some other income, but we don't believe That it'll be probably as high in 2026 that it is in 2025, and as I said, our effective tax rate is increasing. We finished in 2025 at 24.7, we're giving a range of 25% to 26% to quantify this, I think it's close to $100 million.

    這主要涉及勞動成本和福利,也會涉及PNSM(國家社會保障基金)的一小部分。如果考慮其他收入,我們預計到 2025 年將有約 1 億美元。現在我們總是還有一些其他收入,但我們不認為 2026 年的收入會像 2025 年那樣高,而且正如我所說,我們的實際稅率正在上升。我們預計到 2025 年將達到 24.7%,為了量化這個數字,我們給出的範圍是 25% 到 26%,我認為這接近 1 億美元。

  • So these are sizable headwinds that we have to work to try to offset as much as possible and being more productive and being more efficient, which we have been tremendously in 2025. We did the heavy load over there. And we're still going to be, we're still going to turn all the rocks in 2026 to try to offset as much as these headwinds that we have in 2026. Thanks for the Ravi for the question.

    因此,這些都是相當大的不利因素,我們必須努力盡可能地抵消它們,提高生產力和效率,而我們在 2025 年已經取得了巨大的進步。我們在那邊承擔了大部分重體力勞動。我們仍然會,我們仍然會在 2026 年竭盡全力,試圖抵消我們在 2026 年遇到的這些不利因素。感謝Ravi提出的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephanie Moore, Jeffrey.

    史蒂芬妮·摩爾,傑弗裡。

  • Stephanie Moore - Analyst

    Stephanie Moore - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thank you. I wanted to -- maybe go back to the consolidation and the space. You did mention about $15 million in advisory fees associated with the industry consolidation.

    您好,早安。謝謝。我想——或許可以回到整合和空間方面。您確實提到了與行業整合相關的約 1500 萬美元諮詢費。

  • Can you provide a bit more color, maybe what drove the decision to bring in external advisers and what areas they're helping you to evaluate including, the evaluation of potential further consolidation options. Thanks.

    您能否提供更多細節,例如是什麼促使您決定引入外部顧問,以及他們正在幫助您評估哪些領域,包括評估潛在的進一步整合方案。謝謝。

  • Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

  • Listen, yeah, thank you for that question. Listen, this is a big deal. It's an industry-changing deal and I think it inherent upon all of us who are going to participate that we understand the detail and there is a great level of detail that we're going to be looking at on how this is going to impact the industry.

    是的,謝謝你的提問。聽著,這可是件大事。這是一項足以改變產業的交易,我認為所有參與者都必須了解其中的細節,我們將要仔細研究這項交易將如何影響整個產業。

  • So I think where I would expect most or all of us to bring in an expert. Let's make sure that we do that and we do that in a way that isn't disrupting how we run the day-to-day business, right?

    所以我認為,我們大多數人或所有人應該都會請一位專家來幫忙。讓我們確保做到這一點,並以一種不會擾亂我們日常業務運營的方式去做,對吧?

  • Most, it's not nearly all of this organization needs to be focused on delivering for our customers every day and now Pat, there you go, delivering the next level of cost reduction, Janet on growth. And so, we have important and trusted advisor that we bring to bear on this.

    大多數情況下,這個組織需要專注於每天為客戶提供服務,而現在,帕特,你做到了,實現了下一階段的成本削減,珍妮特則談到了增長。因此,我們聘請了一位重要且值得信賴的顧問來處理此事。

  • Patrick Whitehead - Senior Vice President, Network Operations

    Patrick Whitehead - Senior Vice President, Network Operations

  • And I would say I would say that this is clearly non-recurring and it's not reflective of our operating performance, and this is why we have non-GAAP, the amount.

    我認為這顯然是非經常性的,不能反映我們的經營業績,這就是為什麼我們有非GAAP金額的原因。

  • We're being very conservative on this stuff and very intentional and this is the reason why we have non-GAAP it .

    我們在這方面非常保守,也經過深思熟慮,這就是我們採用非GAAP準則的原因。。

  • Thanks for the question

    謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Benoit Poirier, Desjardins.

    貝努瓦·波瓦里耶,德斯雅爾丹。

  • Benoit Poirier - Analyst

    Benoit Poirier - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you very much and thanks for taking my question. I understand 2026 will be impacted by mill, sacks, other and com infects as she's saying you provided the great granularity for 2026. But looking beyond 2026, let's say 2027 under a normal environment with stabilized mid effect environment.

    是的,非常感謝,也感謝您回答我的問題。我理解 2026 年將受到 mill、sacks、其他和 com infects 的影響,正如她所說,你提供了 2026 年的詳細數據。但展望 2026 年後,比如說 2027 年,在正常環境下,中等效應環境趨於穩定。

  • What kind of volume growth would you need in order to generate double digit EPS growth. And I'm sure you already, ran a lots of scenarios. But I would be curious to see what kind of volume growth you generate -- you need in order to generate the double-digit EPS growth under a more stabilized environment. Thank you.

    要達到兩位數的每股盈餘成長,銷售量需要達到怎樣的成長水準?我相信你已經模擬了很多場景。但我很想知道,在更穩定的環境下,為了實現兩位數的每股盈餘成長,你們需要達到怎樣的銷售成長。謝謝。

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, listen, I, here's maybe the way to think about it. We are continuing to build a more efficient and lean engine which is very good that gives us great operating leverage.

    聽著,或許你可以這樣想。我們不斷打造更有效率、更精簡的引擎,這非常好,能為我們帶來巨大的營運優勢。

  • And as we go forward, the real catalyst for realizing that leverage is volume growth, as you know. And now it always depends on which volume growth and where in the network it is. But in general, I would suggest that if you think about mid single-digit volume growth with the cost structure that we've built and are continuing to build, you can see us generate the double-digit EPS.

    如你所知,展望未來,實現這種槓桿效應的真正催化劑是銷售成長。現在,這完全取決於成長的規模以及它在網路中的位置。但總的來說,我認為,如果考慮到我們已經建立並將繼續建立的成本結構,我們能夠實現個位數的銷售成長,那麼我們就能看到兩位數的每股盈餘成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

    史蒂夫漢森,雷蒙德詹姆斯。

  • Steve Hansen - Analyst

    Steve Hansen - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. I just want to come back to the contour aspect of your guidance if I might. Is it possible that the belly of the year might not be stronger than the back half specifically.

    嘿,大家早安。感謝您抽出時間。如果可以的話,我想再談談您指導中關於輪廓的部分。是否有可能,年中的大部分時間(例如前半年)的強度反而不如後半年?

  • I'm just cognizant of the fact that I think [Petcam Co], [Metman] all got beat up last year through 2Q, 3Q. On some one-time issues either the cost or the mindset level, and then we've got a record bring carry harvest carryover here that should benefit the same quarters.

    我只是意識到,我認為 [Petcam Co] 和 [Metman] 去年第二季和第三季都遭受了重創。在某些一次性問題上,無論是成本還是心態水平,我們這裡都有創紀錄的帶走收益結轉,這應該會使同一季度受益。

  • All while we're looking at a comp and Q4 that the record grain moves, I think you articulated in your comments. I'm just trying to understand that contour side a little bit better and whether or not we have a better opportunity in the middle part of the year. Thanks.

    當我們關注唱片紋理變化的比較和第四季度時,我認為你在評論中已經闡述過了。我只是想更了解一下輪廓線那邊的情況,以及我們是否在年中會有更好的機會。謝謝。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I think you're probably that's probably a great way to think about it. There's two pieces of it, of course. One is how the volume showed up last year and I think you've got that right. We did also have the refinery shut at -- shutdown and what was it tore Janet?

    是的,我覺得你說的很對,這可能是個很好的思考方式。當然,它由兩個部分組成。一是去年的銷售表現,我認為你說得對。我們當時也關閉了煉油廠——關閉了,對珍妮特來說又意味著什麼?

  • Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

  • The other side of it, of course, is the cost and our efforts on cost and when some of those appeared over the course of the year, and that is a little period though a bunch of that was early on in the year, so I would say that the way you instructed that, it's pretty good. So we'll go with that.

    當然,另一方面是成本,以及我們在成本方面的努力,還有一些成本問題在一年中陸續出現,雖然時間跨度不大,但其中許多問題都發生在年初。所以我認為,按照你的指示,做得相當不錯。所以我們就採用這個方案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin Chiang, CIBC.

    Kevin Chiang,加拿大帝國商業銀行。

  • Kevin Chiang - Analyst

    Kevin Chiang - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. Maybe I will throw this one to Pat there, Janet laid over to some of these unique opportunities, we talked about these Canadian nation building projects.

    謝謝您回答我的問題。也許我會把這個問題拋給帕特,珍妮特談到了這些獨特的機遇,我們討論了這些加拿大國家建設項目。

  • It seems like a lot of it hits your western network and when I think back to the Investor Day a few years ago, it felt like a focus was creating a more balanced network, but there's growth pipeline might actually exacerbate that imbalance.

    似乎很多業務都集中在西方網絡中,回想幾年前的投資者日,感覺當時的重點是創建一個更平衡的網絡,但增長計劃實際上可能會加劇這種不平衡。

  • Just wondering how you think about the long-term capacity investments you might need to make on that part of your network or or do you feel you have excess capacity now to absorb this growth?

    我想知道您如何看待可能需要在您人脈的這一部分進行長期產能投資,或者您是否覺得您目前的產能足以吸收這種成長?

  • Patrick Whitehead - Senior Vice President, Network Operations

    Patrick Whitehead - Senior Vice President, Network Operations

  • Kevin, I think Janet coerced you into a question my way was a great question. Thank you for that.

    凱文,我覺得是珍妮特逼你問了我一個問題,而我的問題確實很好。謝謝。

  • I was -- I would say this, the investments that we made in 2025 in the West, particularly as Tracy pointed out, the Essence of being now 63% double tracked previously at, around 40% has created about we would call it six trains of capacity in that corridor so we have plenty of room to grow.

    我想說的是,我們在 2025 年對西部進行的投資,特別是正如 Tracy 指出的那樣,現在 63% 的路段已經雙軌化,而此前只有大約 40% 的路段雙軌化,這在該走廊創造了大約六列火車的運力,因此我們有足夠的增長空間。

  • We have, locomotives that are stored. We have, today, we're almost at 800 furloughed employees, so we have leverage to pull as volume shows up and I would say that as it relates to balancing we do a lot of work around balancing each of the corridors.

    我們有存放的機車。目前,我們有近 800 名員工暫時停職,因此當業務量出現時,我們有應對的空間。我想說,就平衡而言,我們做了很多工作來平衡每條運輸走廊。

  • So I feel good about our ability to grow, the capacity is there, the locomotive fleet is more reliable than ever, and we feel very good about our ability to grow in that corridor.

    因此,我對我們的發展能力感到滿意,產能已經具備,機車車隊比以往任何時候都更加可靠,我們對在該走廊的發展能力感到非常樂觀。

  • Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

    Janet Drysdale - Senior Vice President, Chief Stakeholder Relations Officer, Interim Chief Commercial Officer

  • And I would just add, we're going to take a growth where it comes and we're going to figure out how to handle it.

    我還要補充一點,我們會順其自然,找到處理成長的方法。

  • I think, you have to appreciate as well the some of the weakness and force products will actually help create some capacity in the western region for other commodities as well. So, Pat and I stay very closely connected on thinking about, where the volumes are going to come online and how we're going to handle them.

    我認為,你也應該意識到,一些弱勢產品和強勢產品實際上也有助於在西部地區創造一些其他商品的生產能力。所以,我和 Pat 一直保持著非常密切的聯繫,思考著哪些業務量會上線,以及我們將如何處理這些業務量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

    Jonathan Chappell,Evercore ISI。

  • Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

    Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

  • Good morning. Ghislain, to further Benoit's question, you gave a good explanation to what happened to the DNA in the fourth quarter, but as we think about that going forward, if we did, took the fourth quarter run rate, realized that, put 4% inflation on it, you'd be looking at a DNA number that's down $40 million, year to year, so I want to make sure we're thinking about that from the right starting point.

    早安.吉斯蘭,為了進一步回答貝努瓦的問題,你對第四季度DNA發生的情況給出了很好的解釋,但是當我們展望未來時,如果我們採用第四季度的運行率,考慮到4%的通貨膨脹率,你會發現DNA的數字同比下降了4000萬美元,所以我想確保我們從正確的起點來考慮這個問題。

  • And then also just overall inflation, you mentioned that $100 million potentially in the comp and Ben line with someone purchase services. What's the comp per employee look like, under that, scenario.

    此外,還有整體通貨膨脹,你提到過,在補償金和本線中,可能有 1 億美元用於購買服務。在這種情況下,每位員工的薪酬情況如何?

  • Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ghislain Houle - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Okay, well, depreciation, Jonathan depreciation that year-over-year basis. If you look in the past, it always been about a headwind of about $100 million. It's still going to be a headwind between 2026 and 2025, but it's going to be smaller, call it half of it, going forward because we'll have the full year effect of the depreciation study impacting 2026, so that's going to help a little bit.

    好的,折舊,喬納森的折舊是按年計算的。回顧過去,我們總是面臨著約 1 億美元的阻力。2025 年到 2026 年之間仍然會存在一些不利因素,但未來會小一些,大概只有原來的一半,因為折舊研究的全年影響將在 2026 年顯現,這將有所幫助。

  • That's your first piece of the question in terms of inflation, when you put the all-in rail inflation. I think that it's smaller, it -- it's a lower, slightly lower than 3%. And then com per employee is when you look at comp per employee in Q4, it was about 7% and it's going to be in a mid-single-digit-range for 2026.

    這是你關於通貨膨脹問題的第一部分,當你把鐵路通貨膨脹全部考慮進去的時候。我認為它更小,它——它更低,略低於 3%。然後是每位員工的薪酬,當你查看第四季度每位員工的薪酬時,大約是 7%,預計到 2026 年將處於個位數中段。

  • I hope that answers your question.

    希望我的回答能解答你的疑問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Tracy Robinson.

    問答環節到此結束。現在我想把電話轉回特蕾西·羅賓遜。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Christa. Now, just before we conclude today, I've got one more piece of important news. Today was the last call for our Head of Investor Relations, Stacy Alderson.

    謝謝你,克麗斯塔。今天就到這裡,在結束今天的節目之前,我還有一個重要消息要宣布。今天是我們投資者關係主管史黛西·奧爾德森的最後一次通話。

  • Stacy's elected to retire on May 1, so you all know her, she's had an exceptional 30-year career here at CN defined by leadership, integrity, and lasting impact, and she's touched many parts of our business over those years strategic planning, acquisition, network development, financial planning done at allacy and of course our relationships with all of you, we see your fingerprints on this organization everywhere.

    Stacy 將於 5 月 1 日退休,大家都認識她。她在 CN 擁有 30 年卓越的職業生涯,以領導力、正直和持久的影響而聞名。多年來,她參與了我們業務的許多方面,包括策略規劃、收購、網絡開發、財務規劃,當然還有我們與大家的關係。我們在這個組織的各個角落都能看到你的印記。

  • Stacy, we're going to miss you, but we're very happy for you and we're happy for your family on the next chapter.

    史黛西,我們會想念你的,但我們真心為你和你的家人在人生的下一個階段感到高興。

  • Stacy Alderson - Assistant Vice-President, Investor Relations

    Stacy Alderson - Assistant Vice-President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Tracy Robinson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So we're not leaving the job open. I'm pleased to announce that the appointment of Jamie Lockwood as Vice President in Investor Relations and Special Projects. Now Jamie is back in Montreal. He brings about 18 years of a deep railroad experience.

    所以,我們不會一直空缺這個職位。我很高興地宣布任命 Jamie Lockwood 為投資者關係和特別項目副總裁。現在傑米回到了蒙特婁。他擁有近18年的鐵路經驗。

  • He's got a strong perspective, he span finance, internal audit, supply chain, and most recently, a big kind of job in and engineering where with Patty's been leading the transformation of our engineering strategy and execution. Jamie, we're happy to have you back here in Montreal, and I know all of you will enjoy working with them.

    他視野開闊,涉獵財務、內部審計、供應鏈等領域,最近還擔任了工程方面的一項重要工作,與 Patty 一起領導了我們工程戰略和執行的轉型。傑米,我們很高興你回到蒙特利爾,我知道你們都會喜歡和他們一起工作。

  • So Stacy and Jamie will work closely together over the next month or so to just to ensure a smooth transition. I know you'll join me in congratulating both of them.

    因此,在接下來的一個月左右時間裡,Stacy 和 Jamie 將密切合作,以確保平穩過渡。我知道你們都會和我一起祝賀他們兩個。

  • And then just finally I want to take the opportunity to thank the entire CN team for all your contributions, your focus, your resilience, all over the last year and in the year coming, railroading isn't an easy business, but you all do it very well, and it's an honor to work alongside all of you. Thank you for joining us today and we'll talk to you soon.

    最後,我想藉此機會感謝加拿大國家鐵路公司全體員工在過去一年和未來一年所做的所有貢獻、你們的專注和韌性。鐵路運輸並非易事,但你們都做得非常出色,能與你們一起工作是我的榮幸。感謝您今天加入我們,我們很快再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, the conference call has now ended. Thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您可以斷開線路了。