Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Christa, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

午安.我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員指示）

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Stacy Alderson, CN's Assistant Vice President of Investor Relations. Ladies and gentlemen, Ms. Alderson.

現在，我想將電話轉給加拿大國家廣播公司投資者關係助理副總裁 Stacy Alderson。女士們、先生們，奧爾德森女士。

Thank you, Christa. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us for CN's first quarter financial and operating results conference call. Of note, we have forward-looking statements and non-GAAP definitions for your view on page 2 of our presentation. These forward-looking statements include estimates, goals and predictions about the future based on current information and educated assumptions.

謝謝你，克里斯塔。歡迎大家。感謝您參加 CN 第一季財務與營運業績電話會議。值得注意的是，我們在簡報的第 2 頁提供了前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 定義供您查看。這些前瞻性陳述包括基於當前資訊和有根據的假設對未來所做的估計、目標和預測。

These come with risks and uncertainties. And with that, there is always the possibility that the outcomes may differ from the expectations. That being said, forward-looking statements aren't guarantees and factors like economic conditions, competition, fuel prices and regulatory changes could affect actual results.

這些都伴隨著風險和不確定性。因此，結果總是有可能與預期不同。話雖如此，前瞻性聲明並不能保證，經濟狀況、競爭、燃料價格和監管變化等因素可能會影響實際結果。

Joining us on the call today are Tracy Robinson, our President and CEO; Derek Taylor, our Chief Field Operations Officer; Pat Whitehead, our Chief Network Operations Officer; Remi Lalonde, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Ghislain Houle, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天參加電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Tracy Robinson、我們的現場營運長 Derek Taylor、我們的網路營運長 Pat Whitehead、我們的商務長 Remi Lalonde 和我們的財務長 Ghislain Houle。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tracy Robinson.

現在我很高興將電話轉給加拿大國家鐵路公司總裁兼執行長 Tracey Robinson。

(Spoken in foreign language) Thanks everyone for joining us on today's call. We are very pleased today to be reporting strong first quarter results. We delivered 8% earnings growth and a 20 basis point improvement in the operating ratio. This gives us a good start on the year, particularly as we expect earnings growth to pick up in the second half as we lapped last year's labor-related disruption.

（以外語說）感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。今天我們非常高興地報告第一季的強勁業績。我們的獲利成長了 8%，營業比率提高了 20 個基點。這為我們今年帶來了良好的開端，特別是我們預計下半年獲利成長將會回升，因為我們已經克服了去年與勞工相關的混亂局面。

The team delivered these results despite experiencing a more normalized Q1 weather pattern, which meant tougher comps versus last year, especially in February. The resiliency we saw is again proof that our operating model is the right one for this railroad.

儘管第一季的天氣狀況較為正常，與去年相比（尤其是在二月）的競爭更加激烈，但球隊仍然取得了這些成績。我們看到的彈性再次證明我們的營運模式適合這條鐵路。

And we're also pleased with the conclusion of the arbitration process involving our Canadian conductors and locomotive engineers. It resulted in a three-year deal and annual wage increases of 3%, in line with our expectations. We continue to make progress on labor agreements in the US as well. We've now reached a ratified agreements with nine unions, representing roughly half of our US workforce.

我們也對涉及加拿大列車長和機車工程師的仲裁程序的結束感到高興。最終雙方達成了一項為期三年的合同，每年工資增長 3%，符合我們的預期。我們在美國勞工協議方面也持續取得進展。我們現在已經與九個工會達成了批准協議，這些工會約占我們美國勞動力的一半。

Now in terms of the outlook. When we spoke with you in January, we expected that there would be some uncertainty during the year around tariffs and trade, in particular, and certainly playing out that way. We've not seen a significant impact to our volumes thus far, but there's no question that uncertainty has increased over the last few months and we're seeing a heightened risk of recession in both Canada and the US.

現在就前景而言。當我們在一月份與您交談時，我們預計今年在關稅和貿易方面會出現一些不確定性，而且肯定會以這種方式發展。到目前為止，我們的交易量尚未受到重大影響，但毫無疑問，過去幾個月不確定性增加，我們看到加拿大和美國經濟衰退的風險都在增加。

Now it's difficult to say what will happen from here. While we remain optimistic that the US will ultimately reach trade agreements with Canada, China and other countries, we don't know what those deals will look like nor when they will happen. What we do know is that CN is well positioned to enable global trade regardless of potential changes in trade patterns. We have the right service and available capacity at all three coasts of North America to provide our customers with gateway options. So we're ready.

現在很難說接下來會發生什麼事。雖然我們仍然樂觀地認為美國最終將與加拿大、中國和其他國家達成貿易協定，但我們不知道這些協議會是什麼樣子，也不知道它們何時會達成。我們所知道的是，無論貿易模式如何變化，CN 都完全有能力推動全球貿易。我們在北美三岸均擁有合適的服務和可用容量，可為我們的客戶提供入口網站選擇。所以我們準備好了。

Now for Prince Rupert, specifically, we continue to believe that it will play a large role in our future growth. Rupert has an available capacity, and its ability to expand intermodal and bulk shipments is unique in Canada. There's a tremendous amount of ongoing investment in business development to diversify the commodities handled by the terminals in Rupert. It's an increasingly important outlet for liquids and plastics from Western Canada that are in high demand in Asian markets, for example. I know that some of you on the call will be joining Remi and the team in Rupert in June to see firsthand what we're so excited about.

具體來說，對於魯珀特王子港，我們仍然相信它將在我們未來的發展中發揮重要作用。魯珀特擁有可用容量，其擴展聯運和散裝運輸的能力在加拿大是獨一無二的。目前，我們正在投入巨額資金用於業務開發，以實現魯珀特碼頭處理的商品多樣化。例如，對於亞洲市場等需求量大的加拿大西部液體和塑膠來說，這裡是一個越來越重要的出口。我知道，你們中的一些人將在 6 月加入雷米和魯珀特的團隊，親眼看看我們為何如此興奮。

Now getting back to the quarter. Derek is going to take you through our field ops performance. Pat will provide an overview of our resource and labor productivity and our progress on our mechanical and engineering efficiency. And our operating measures, although off from last year, are in the range of a more normal winter. And most importantly, we showed incremental margin improvement coming from tighter resourcing and cost management in addition to strong same-store pricing. All in, EPS grew by 8% on 1% RTM growth in the quarter.

現在回到本季。德里克將帶您了解我們的現場行動表現。Pat 將概述我們的資源和勞動生產力以及我們在機械和工程效率方面的進展。我們的營運措施雖然與去年相比有所下降，但仍處於較正常的冬季範圍內。最重要的是，除了強勁的同店定價外，我們還透過更嚴格的資源和成本管理實現了利潤率的逐步提高。總體而言，本季 EPS 成長了 8%，RTM 成長了 1%。

Now as we look forward, we're keeping a very close eye on the external environment and staying close to our customers to understand the potential changes in traffic flows. Remi will give some more color in a moment. And we continue to assume year-over-year volume growth driven by our CN-specific initiatives, and lapping last year's disruption. We expect that this will translate into volume and margin growth acceleration through the last half of the year.

展望未來，我們將密切關注外部環境並與客戶保持密切聯繫，以了解交通流量的潛在變化。雷米 (Remi) 稍後會給出更多顏色。我們繼續預計，受我們針對 CN 的舉措的推動，銷量將同比增長，並彌補去年的中斷。我們預計這將轉化為下半年銷售和利潤率的加速成長。

So we have four months under our belt with performance in line with our plan. We continue to assume RTM growth in the low to mid-single-digit range. We are intentionally keeping resources tight and driving efficiencies across the organization to deliver better margins. And we're focused on running this railroad efficiently, serving our customers well and driving value for our shareholders, our employees and all stakeholders.

因此，我們已經有四個月的時間了，並且業績符合我們的計劃。我們繼續假設 RTM 成長率處於低至中等個位數範圍內。我們有意保持資源緊張並提高整個組織的效率，以實現更好的利潤。我們專注於高效運作這條鐵路，為客戶提供優質服務，並為我們的股東、員工和所有利害關係人創造價值。

Our full year guidance of 10% to 15% EPS growth remains unchanged, and we do recognize that there's an increasing risk of recession. And if the economy moves into a recession, this could impact our outlook, but we expect to deliver within our guidance range as long as we see year-over-year volume growth.

我們對全年每股收益成長 10% 至 15% 的預期保持不變，但我們確實認識到經濟衰退的風險正在增加。如果經濟陷入衰退，這可能會影響我們的前景，但只要我們看到同比增長，我們預計就會在我們的指導範圍內實現。

So I'll now turn it over to the team to fill in the details. Derek, you're up first.

因此，我現在將其交給團隊來填寫詳細資料。德瑞克，你先來。

Thanks, Tracy, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll be speaking on slide 6. We started the first quarter with strong operational performance in January and car velocity was at 200 miles per day, a seasonally solid number. Winter conditions really hit hard in February and not just in the West where we're used to seeing cold temperatures.

謝謝，特蕾西，大家下午好。我將在第 6 張投影片上發言。1 月份，我們以強勁的營運業績開啟了第一季度，汽車行駛速度達到每天 200 英里，這是一個季節性的穩定數字。二月的冬季氣候確實非常惡劣，而且不僅僅是在我們習慣寒冷氣候的西部。

We also had some extreme cold and record snowfall in the Eastern region and saw considerable flooding in the Southern region along our Chicago and New Orleans corridor. Tying it together, we had impacts across the entire network at the same time which limited the ability for some parts of the network to assist other regions. For instance, Toronto wasn't able to absorb the switching to help out Winnipeg.

東部地區也遭遇了極端寒冷和創紀錄的降雪，芝加哥和新奧爾良走廊沿線的南部地區則遭遇了嚴重的洪災。總而言之，我們同時對整個網路產生了影響，這限制了網路某些部分協助其他區域的能力。例如，多倫多無法吸收轉換以幫助溫尼伯。

The team continued to execute through 19 consecutive days of tier restrictions in February. For perspective, there were only three days of tier restrictions last February. A reminder to everyone on the call that for safety reasons, we implement three tiers of train length and speed restrictions at temperatures below 25 degree Celsius, which have the impact of constraining car velocity and network fluidity.

該團隊在 2 月連續 19 天的分級限制期間繼續執行任務。從這個角度來看，去年二月只有三天的分級限制。提醒所有與會者，出於安全考慮，在低於 25 攝氏度的氣溫條件下，我們將實施三級列車長度和速度限制，這將對車輛速度和網路流動性產生限製作用。

For example, we lose about 30% of train length capacity for intermodal and manifest train at Tier 2 temperatures. This compounding effect is very impactful to the network, the longer the restrictions are implemented.

例如，在 Tier 2 溫度下，聯運和貨運列車的長度容量將損失約 30%。限制措施實施的時間越長，這種複合效應對網路的影響就越大。

We are very careful to manage our resources and costs. For example, being disciplined about not injecting more equipment into the mix to maximize solidity and throughput during February's deep freeze. When the weather broke in March, the network quickly rebounded and these data tell the story. We moved nearly 1.4 billion daily GTMs, which is among our top performances for the month of March.

我們非常謹慎地管理我們的資源和成本。例如，在二月的深度凍結期間，嚴格控制不注入更多設備以最大限度地提高堅固性和吞吐量。當三月天氣轉好時，網路迅速恢復，這些數據說明了一切。我們每天的 GTM 移動量接近 14 億，這是 3 月份我們表現最好的一次。

Car velocity improved to nearly 200 miles per day, dwell improved at 7.5 hours, and we moved a record amount of Canadian grain. Importantly, we did all that with 2% lower average headcount.

汽車速度提高到每天近 200 英里，停留時間縮短至 7.5 小時，我們運輸了創紀錄數量的加拿大穀物。重要的是，我們在平均員工人數減少 2% 的情況下完成了所有這些工作。

Coming to the second quarter, we'll continue to have pockets of weather as we pull out of winter. The network has remained resilient, and the team stayed on task. We're seeing a lot of great things so far. We are driving improvement in the ground count and container dwells at the ports we service. Month-to-date car velocity is almost 250 miles per day, month-to-date through dwell is 6.8 hours, and LSCP is back up to 95% for servicing our customers.

進入第二季度，隨著冬季的結束，我們將繼續遭遇零星天氣。網路依然保持彈性，團隊也持續執行任務。到目前為止，我們看到了很多偉大的事情。我們正在推動所服務港口的地面數量和貨櫃停留時間的改善。本月迄今的車輛速度接近每天 250 英里，本月迄今的停留時間為 6.8 小時，LSCP 已恢復到 95% 以為客戶提供服務。

Q1 was about controlling what we could control regardless of the weather. I would certainly say that the team did a great job operating this railroad in the first quarter and stayed focused, especially in the thick of the February deep freeze. This team knows the importance of sticking to the plan, which we have once again demonstrated with the speed in which we recovered from the February weather conditions. I am proud to be operating shoulder-to-shoulder with these professionals out in the field and would like to thank them for their Q1 efforts.

Q1 是關於控制我們能夠控制的事情，無論天氣如何。我肯定會說，團隊在第一季運營這條鐵路方面做得非常出色，並且保持了專注，特別是在二月份最嚴寒的天氣裡。這個團隊知道堅持計畫的重要性，我們從二月的天氣狀況中恢復的速度再次證明了這一點。我很榮幸能與這些專業人士並肩作戰，並感謝他們為第一季所做的努力。

Now I'll pass it over to Pat.

現在我將把它交給帕特。

Thanks, Derek. Starting with safety. Our injury ratio remained flat year-over-year despite the sustained conditions that stress tested teams in all areas of our operations. Shifting to resourcing, we're seeing strong results from the actions we took in the second half of last year to better align our workforce with demand.

謝謝，德里克。從安全開始。儘管持續的疫情對我們所有營運領域的團隊都造成了壓力，但我們的受傷率仍保持穩定。轉向資源配置，我們看到去年下半年採取的行動取得了顯著成果，這些行動使我們的勞動力更好地與需求保持一致。

Overall, labor productivity improved by 2%, primarily driven by an 8% gain in training engine employee productivity. Additionally, we've expanded our internal engineering team compared to last year as we continually strive for the optimal balance between internal labor and external contractors.

整體而言，勞動生產力提高了 2%，主要得益於培訓引擎員工生產力提高了 8%。此外，與去年相比，我們擴大了內部工程團隊，因為我們不斷努力實現內部勞動力和外部承包商之間的最佳平衡。

In-sourcing more of our core engineering work enables us to achieve greater productivity, quality, cost control, and most importantly, accelerates the development of our in-house talent. This strategic shift is not isolated, it's part of our commitment to disciplined capital management and project execution. Although it's still early in the work season, the initial results from our engineering team have been promising.

將更多的核心工程工作外包使我們能夠實現更高的生產力、品質、成本控制，最重要的是，加速我們內部人才的發展。這種策略轉變並不是孤立的，而是我們對嚴格的資本管理和專案執行的承諾的一部分。雖然現在仍處於工作季節的早期，但我們的工程團隊的初步成果已經令人鼓舞。

We've seen nearly double-digit productivity improvements across rail grinding, welding, and tie installation. Our emphasis on schedule adherence translated to a 12% reduction in train delays caused by engineering work blocks. This means we're getting more out of every dollar spent, and we're effectively unlocking additional network capacity simply through better execution.

我們看到，在軌道打磨、焊接和枕木安裝方面，生產效率提高了近兩位數。我們強調遵守時間表，這使得因工程施工阻塞而導致的列車延誤減少了 12%。這意味著我們花費的每一美元都能獲得更多的回報，而且我們只需透過更好的執行就能有效地釋放額外的網路容量。

Turning to locomotives. Our fleet availability stayed steady at 91% despite extreme conditions across the network in Q1. Our modernization program, which improves availability through reliability drove an 11% reduction in locomotive failures compared to last year. Our locomotive strategy is paying dividends when we need it most with power consistently ready for launch.

轉向機車。儘管第一季整個網路狀況極端惡劣，但我們的車隊可用性仍然穩定在 91%。我們的現代化計劃透過可靠性提高了可用性，與去年相比，機車故障減少了 11%。我們的火車頭策略在我們最需要的時候帶來回報，電力始終準備就緒。

The team has also been fine-tuning our predictive maintenance analytics, allowing us to better forecast critical components nearing the end of their useful life. This resulted in a 5% reduction in locomotive parts inventory and ensures we have the right parts on hand when need. This is all about reinforcing a culture of efficiency and sweeping the corners for all opportunities.

團隊也一直在微調我們的預測性維護分析，使我們能夠更好地預測即將達到使用壽命的關鍵零件。這使得機車零件庫存減少了 5%，並確保我們在需要時手頭上有合適的零件。這一切都是為了加強效率文化，並爭取所有機會。

Our investments in locomotive availability and the focus on engineering productivity help us sustain the operation, create capacity and support fluidity. A great example of how it all comes together was in March when we moved the most average daily GTMs since April of 2022.

我們對機車可用性的投資以及對工程生產力的關注幫助我們維持營運、創造產能並支持流動性。一個很好的例子就是，我們在 3 月移動了自 2022 年 4 月以來最多的平均每日 GTM。

Looking ahead, we're on track to bring on additional network capacity this year. Particularly in Western Canada, there are eight projects scheduled to come online in Q4. These include yard improvements, siding projects, and additional double tracks specifically on our Edson Sub, between Edmonton and Jasper. All of this boost our throughput and improves fluidity, positioning us for growth.

展望未來，我們預計今年將增加網路容量。特別是在加拿大西部，有八個項目計劃在第四季度上線。這些包括院子改進、側線項目，以及特別是在埃德蒙頓和賈斯珀之間的埃德森支線上增加雙軌。所有這些都提高了我們的吞吐量並改善了流動性，為我們的成長奠定了基礎。

As we continue to improve in productivity, cost efficiency and capacity, we're well placed to meet the evolving demands of our customers. Our goal remains to maintain operational excellence and get the most out of our resources, all while ensuring we move our customers' goods efficiently and most importantly, safely.

隨著我們生產力、成本效率和產能的不斷提高，我們能夠很好地滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。我們的目標仍然是保持卓越的營運並充分利用我們的資源，同時確保我們有效率且最重要的是安全地運輸客戶的貨物。

With that, I'll pass it on to Remi.

說完這些，我就會把它傳給雷米。

Thanks, Pat. (Spoken in foreign language) Let's all flip to slide 10. We realized revenue ton mile growth of about 1% in the quarter as underlying demand was strong across most segments, particularly grain and coal, which were partly offset by lower volumes of potash as expected and iron ore.

謝謝，帕特。（用外語說）我們都翻到第 10 張投影片。由於大多數領域（尤其是穀物和煤炭）的潛在需求強勁，我們在本季度實現了噸英里收入增長約 1%，但這被鉀肥和鐵礦石產量的預期下降部分抵消。

Overall, revenues were up by 4%, which reflects a 3.5% tailwind from foreign exchange, offsetting a 3% fuel price headwind due to lower applicable OHD prices. The pricing environment remains mostly constructive, and we continue to deliver same-store price ahead of CN rail cost inflation. While RTMs increased by 1%, carloads fell by 2%, which is due mostly to the decrease in iron ore shipments, a good portion of which is short haul.

總體而言，收入增長了 4%，這反映了外匯帶來的 3.5% 的順風，抵消了由於適用 OHD 價格降低導致的 3% 的燃料價格逆風。定價環境總體上仍然保持建設性，我們將繼續在加拿大國家鐵路成本通膨之前提供同店價格。雖然RTM增加了1％，但車載量卻下降了2％，這主要是由於鐵礦石運輸量的減少，其中很大一部分是短程運輸。

Let me jump right into the macro environment and tariffs and what we're hearing and seeing from customers. Clearly, this is a very dynamic situation, and we're staying very close to customers as we collectively navigate through the uncertainty. With most customers in wait-and-see mode, we did not observe a material shift in overall traffic flows in Q1, but we did see some sector-specific reactions, including a combination of paused shipments to avoid tariffs, reduced production or inventory building and also some apparent pull-forward demand for finished vehicles in particular.

讓我直接談談宏觀環境和關稅以及我們從客戶那裡聽到和看到的情況。顯然，這是一個非常動態的情況，我們在共同應對不確定性的同時，與客戶保持密切聯繫。由於大多數客戶處於觀望狀態，我們並未觀察到第一季整體運輸流量出現實質變化，但我們確實看到了一些特定行業的反應，包括暫停發貨以避免關稅、減少生產或建立庫存，以及對成品車的一些明顯的提前需求。

Let's look at Q1 by sector on an exchange adjusted basis. For petroleum and chemicals, revenue increased by 3%, reflecting mostly continued growth in export NGLs, mainly to Rupert, which were partly offset by lower refined petroleum volumes due to a production issue at a customer facility and lower southbound biodiesel shipments. Metals and minerals revenue slipped by 6%, mostly because of a significant drop in iron ore shipments with softer export demand and production issues at mines we serve in the iron range.

讓我們根據匯率調整後的數據來看看各行業第一季的情況。石油和化學品方面，收入增長了 3%，這主要反映了出口 NGL 的持續增長，主要出口到魯珀特，但由於客戶工廠的生產問題導致精煉石油產量下降以及南向生物柴油出貨量減少，部分抵消了這一增長。金屬和礦產收入下滑了 6%，主要是因為鐵礦石出貨量大幅下降、出口需求疲軟以及我們所服務的鐵礦山出現生產問題。

Demand for frac sand remains strong, but volumes also fell with the train length restrictions due to the extreme cold which affected shipments in Northeast BC. We saw strong orders across Forest products with pull-forward demand ahead of potential tariffs, but we were not able to capitalize on the full opportunity given the operational restrictions.

壓裂砂的需求仍然強勁，但由於極端寒冷天氣影響了不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部的運輸，導致列車長度受限，導致壓裂砂的運輸量也出現下降。我們看到森林產品的訂單強勁，並且在潛在關稅之前有提前需求，但由於營運限制，我們無法充分利用這一機會。

Coal exports jumped in both Western Canada and the US, driving revenue up by 9%. The average length of haul also rose by 11%, with a higher proportion of US exports shipping through the Gulf. We recorded a 7% increase in revenue for grain and fertilizers, reflecting higher exports from each of Canada and the US and also strong pricing.

加拿大西部和美國的煤炭出口量均大幅成長，帶動收入成長 9%。平均運輸距離也增加了 11%，美國出口貨物透過墨西哥灣運輸的比例增加。我們的穀物和化肥收入成長了 7%，這反映了加拿大和美國的出口量增加以及強勁的定價。

As we expected, the benefit was partly offset by lower long-haul potash exports to Eastern Canada due to a terminal outage. The stronger pricing and mix change had a favorable impact on revenue per RTM.

正如我們預期的那樣，由於碼頭停運，運往加拿大東部的長途鉀肥出口量減少，部分抵消了這一收益。更強勁的定價和產品組合變化對每 RTM 收入產生了有利影響。

Intermodal RTMs were flat, but revenue slipped by 3%, largely reflecting more Canadian cargo as we work to rebuild US-destined business following the '24 labor disruptions. We're not quite where we wanted to be in Q1, but with the Chinese New Year behind us and especially as we welcome the Gemini alliance to Prince Rupert, we've got the pieces together to grow.

多式聯運 RTM 持平，但收入下滑 3%，這主要反映了我們在 24 年勞工中斷之後努力重建以美國為目的地的業務，導致加拿大貨物增加。我們在第一季的業績還沒有達到預期，但隨著中國新年的到來，特別是我們歡迎雙子星聯盟入駐魯珀特王子港，我們已經準備好實現成長。

Automotive RTMs rose by 11% against last year with higher shipments of finished vehicles on pull-forward cross-border moves ahead of the application of tariffs in April. As we think about our outlook for the rest of the year, it goes without saying that there is uncertainty around global trade flows and macroeconomic conditions, particularly when it comes to the trade dispute between the US and China, the impact and duration of auto industry tariffs, and the possibility of additional tariffs on commodities like lumber and metals.

由於 4 月關稅實施前提前跨境運輸導致整車出貨量增加，汽車 RTM 較去年同期上漲了 11%。當我們思考今年剩餘時間的前景時，不言而喻的是，全球貿易流動和宏觀經濟狀況存在不確定性，特別是涉及美國和中國之間的貿易爭端、汽車行業關稅的影響和持續時間，以及對木材和金屬等大宗商品徵收額外關稅的可能性。

We have not assumed particularly robust economic growth to support our guidance for the year. And indeed, it appears more and more that we are headed toward only slightly positive industrial production in 2025. Rather, our guidance was built on the expected benefit of lapping the 2024 labor rail and terminal disruptions, particularly for international intermodal and our line of sight growth initiatives like met coal export capacity, crush plants, and sand terminals.

我們並未假設特別強勁的經濟成長能夠支持我們對今年的預測。事實上，越來越明顯的是，到 2025 年，我們的工業生產將只略有成長。相反，我們的指引是建立在2024年勞動力鐵路和碼頭中斷的預期收益之上的，特別是對於國際聯運和我們的視線增長計劃，如冶金煤出口能力、粉碎廠和沙子碼頭。

With our strength of service and the resilience of CN's network, we still feel good about our position. For Intermodal, we continue to expect year-over-year growth, both international and domestic weighted to the second half.

憑藉我們強大的服務實力和加拿大國家鐵路網絡的彈性，我們仍然對自己的地位感到滿意。對於多式聯運，我們繼續預計下半年國際和國內運輸量都將年增。

But in the near term, we will see a pullback due to the noticeable increase in blank sailings, creating a bit of an air pocket. We're cautious with our outlook for metals, forest products and autos in the near term and the full year given the macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of existing and potential future US tariffs.

但在短期內，我們將看到由於空白航班明顯增加而出現的回調，從而形成一些空洞。鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性以及現有和未來潛在的美國關稅的影響，我們對近期和全年金屬、林產品和汽車的前景持謹慎態度。

We will also see a step down in iron ore volumes for the rest of the year because of the mine idling in the iron range and expected lower export demand. We could see tariff-induced movement around grain and fertilizers, but we feel pretty good with the balance of risks and opportunities for the rest of the year, particularly with the strong demand in US grain and potash exports to the east.

由於鐵礦閒置以及預計出口需求下降，今年剩餘時間鐵礦石產量也將下降。我們可能會看到關稅引發的糧食和化肥價格波動，但我們對今年剩餘時間的風險和機會平衡感到相當樂觀，特別是考慮到美國糧食和鉀肥出口到東方的強勁需求。

But I would remind us that we are up against a strong comp with the longer tail to last year's Canadian crop. Petroleum and chemicals should have lower tariff exposure, so we're expecting continued growth momentum for the year weighted to the second half. So taking all this into account, we still expect the business to deliver RTM volume growth in the low to mid-single-digit range with an acceleration in the second half of the year.

但我要提醒大家的是，我們面臨的是強勁的競爭情勢，與去年加拿大的作物相比，競爭持續時間更長。石油和化學品的關稅風險較低，因此我們預計今年下半年將繼續保持成長動能。因此，考慮到所有這些因素，我們仍然預計該業務的 RTM 銷售成長率將在低至中等個位數範圍內，並在下半年加速。

Ghislain?

吉斯蘭？

(Spoken in foreign language) Turning to slide 13. As you've already heard, we had a more normal winter this year versus the past couple of years which required us to activate our winter operating plan and train length restrictions, particularly in the month of February. Throughout the quarter, the underlying demand was solid with minimal impacts related to the tariff situation.

（用外語說）翻到第 13 張投影片。正如您已經聽說的那樣，與過去幾年相比，今年的冬天更加正常，這需要我們啟動冬季運營計劃和列車長度限制，尤其是在二月。整個季度，潛在需求保持穩健，關稅狀況的影響極小。

As the weather grow, we recovered in March and delivered a solid month. For the quarter, we reported EPS of $1.85, up 8% versus last year. The operating ratio improved by 20 basis points to 63.4%, and revenues were up 4% year-over-year.

隨著天氣好轉，我們在三月恢復了元氣，並度過了一個充實的月份。本季度，我們的每股盈餘為 1.85 美元，比去年同期成長 8%。營業比率提高了 20 個基點，達到 63.4%，營收年增 4%。

Moving to slide 14, let me provide you more details on some of the operating expense categories in the quarter, which I'll speak to on an exchange-adjusted basis. Labor was essentially flat versus last year, mostly on account of lower average head count, offset by higher compensation per employee driven by general wage increases. Fuel expense decreased 5% versus the same period last year due to an 8% decrease in price per gallon, partly offset by 2% less fuel efficiency. The net impact of fuel prices was about $0.07 unfavorable to EPS and 50 basis points of the OR in the quarter.

轉到第 14 張幻燈片，讓我向您提供有關本季度一些運營費用類別的更多詳細信息，我將在交易所調整的基礎上進行討論。勞動力數量與去年相比基本持平，主要是因為平均員工人數減少，但整體薪資上漲帶動每位員工的薪資增加。由於每加侖價格下降 8%，燃料費用與去年同期相比下降了 5%，但燃油效率下降 2% 部分抵消了這一影響。燃料價格的淨影響對本季每股盈餘 (EPS) 造成約 0.07 美元的不利影響，對 OR 造成 50 個基點的不利影響。

Other income was up over $20 million versus last year due to a net remeasurement gain of the fair market value related to our Iowa Northern acquisition. We generated over $600 million of free cash flow for the quarter, about $100 million more than last year, mainly due to higher net cash from operating activities and lower capital expenditures.

由於我們收購愛荷華北方鐵路公司產生的公平市場價值淨重估收益，其他收入較去年同期增加了 2,000 多萬美元。本季我們產生了超過 6 億美元的自由現金流，比去年同期增加了約 1 億美元，這主要歸功於經營活動產生的淨現金增加和資本支出減少。

Moving to slide 15, let me provide some visibility to 2025. We continue to believe the economy will be slightly better than last year, with slightly positive North American industrial production for 2025 versus the 1% growth previously expected. Having said that, we're monitoring the tariff situation closely.

轉到第 15 張投影片，讓我來展望一下 2025 年。我們仍然相信經濟將比去年略好一些，2025 年北美工業生產將略有成長，而先前預期的成長率為 1%。話雖如此，我們正在密切關注關稅情況。

With this in mind and along with our CN-specific growth initiatives, we continue to expect volumes in terms of RTMs to be in the range of low to mid-single digits. Leverage at the end of Q1 was 2.55 times, and we intend to start our share buyback in the second quarter, continuing to manage leverage to our 2.5 times adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA target.

考慮到這一點，再加上我們針對 CN 的成長計劃，我們繼續預期 RTM 的銷量將處於低至中等個位數的範圍內。第一季末的槓桿率為 2.55 倍，我們打算在第二季開始股票回購，繼續將槓桿率控制在調整後債務與調整後 EBITDA 比 2.5 倍的目標範圍內。

We continue to assume foreign exchange for the year of around $0.70. However, our view of WTI has been updated to USD60 to USD70 per barrel. Our effective tax rate continues to be in the range of 24% to 25%.

我們繼續假設今年的外匯匯率約為0.70美元。不過，我們對WTI的預期已更新至每桶60至70美元。我們的有效稅率持續維持在24%至25%之間。

We are maintaining our guidance of 10% to 15% EPS growth in 2025. We continue to monitor the economy and tariff situation and recognize that the risk of a recession has heightened since our last call. Having said that, we're off to a strong start to the year staying close to our customers and doing what we can to mitigate any negative impact. We're also holding our 2024, 2026 guidance of high single-digit EPS CAGR.

我們維持 2025 年每股收益成長 10% 至 15% 的預期。我們持續監測經濟和關稅情勢，並意識到自上次通話以來，經濟衰退的風險已經加劇。話雖如此，我們今年開局良好，與客戶保持密切聯繫，並盡我們所能減輕任何負面影響。我們也維持 2024 年、2026 年高個位數 EPS CAGR 的指導。

In conclusion, let me reiterate a few points. The network has been operating very well since we pulled out of winner. We expect volume growth to pick up in the second half, driven by CN-specific initiatives, as Remi mentioned. We are tightly managing costs in this uncertain environment, controlling what we can control. We are very pleased with our Q1 results, a solid start to the year and the footing to deliver on our guidance.

最後，我想重申幾點。自從我們退出以來，網路一直運作良好。正如雷米所提到的，我們預計在針對中國鐵路的舉措的推動下，下半年銷售成長將會回升。在這個不確定的環境中，我們嚴格管理成本，控制我們所能控制的部分。我們對第一季的業績非常滿意，這是一個好的開端，也是實現預期目標的基礎。

Let me pass it back to Tracy.

讓我把它轉交給 Tracy。

Thanks, Ghislain. Christa, we'll be happy to take questions.

謝謝，吉斯蘭。克里斯塔，我們很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Fadi Chamoun, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場的 Fadi Chamoun。

So, good afternoon, So Remi, I wanted to get some clarity on the US intermodal -- international intermodal that you handle through the Western ports to the US. And what are you assuming in terms of that business going into the second half of the year given not only some of the blank sailings and kind of reduction in orders that we're seeing right now, but also potentially if these tariffs are sustained a little bit longer and affecting kind of that type of traffic?

下午好，雷米，我想澄清一下美國的多式聯運——通過西部港口到美國的國際多式聯運。考慮到我們目前看到的一些空白航班和訂單減少，以及這些關稅可能持續更長時間並影響這類運輸量，您對下半年的業務有何預測？

And kind of related to that, one of your peers talked yesterday about offsetting market opportunity that can mitigate some of the tariff impact on some factors like autos and intermodal. And it might be more specific to your network, I guess, there will be different opportunities. But have you had any opportunities to kind of examine what potential supply chain solution you can provide in the context of these trade policies changes?

與此相關的是，您的一位同事昨天談到了抵消市場機會，這可以減輕關稅對汽車和多式聯運等因素的影響。我想，它可能更具體地針對您的網絡，會有不同的機會。但是，您是否有機會研究在這些貿易政策變化的背景下您可以提供什麼潛在的供應鏈解決方案？

Yes, Fadi, thanks for your question. So starting with the US, as we mentioned, one of the challenges we've had is that the recovery of US volume has been a little bit slower than we expected. When we spoke to you last quarter, we said that we had to get through Chinese Lunar New Year and welcome the Gemini Alliance to Prince Rupert. With that behind us, US volumes picked up nicely, actually as of April.

是的，Fadi，謝謝你的提問。因此，從美國開始，正如我們所提到的，我們面臨的挑戰之一是美國貿易量的復甦比我們預期的要慢一些。當我們上個季度與您交談時，我們說我們必須度過中國農曆新年並歡迎雙子座聯盟抵達魯珀特王子港。在此之後，美國的銷量實際上從 4 月開始就穩步回升。

And so we've got some good momentum heading into the rest of the year. I will tell you with what we see so far. Gemini and Rupert has been much stronger than we expected. Our overall US volumes, to answer your question, in Q1 on the West Coast were down about 30%. But our Canadian volumes were up 16%, and we're about two-third Canada to one-third US, so that explains the mix a little bit.

因此，我們在今年剩餘時間保持了良好的勢頭。我會根據目前所看到的情況告訴你。雙子座和魯伯特比我們預期的要強大得多。回答您的問題，我們第一季西海岸的美國整體銷售量下降了約 30%。但我們的加拿大銷量成長了 16%，我們的市佔率大約佔加拿大的三分之二，美國佔三分之一，所以這多少解釋了一下這種組合。

In terms of the rest of the year, few have seen an increase in blank sailings. The impact for the ports that we serve is not nearly as severe as what we've heard of some of the other ports. And so we think the value proposition is still very, very strong. So we're going to see a bit of an air pocket here looking out through the end of the year, particularly on intermodal and it's going to be especially in the second quarter. But for the second half, as I mentioned earlier, we do expect to see good growth there.

就今年剩餘時間而言，很少有航班空白期增加。我們服務的港口受到的影響遠沒有我們聽說的其他一些港口受到的影響那麼嚴重。因此我們認為價值主張仍然非常非常強大。因此，展望今年年底，我們將看到一些空洞現象，特別是在多式聯運方面，尤其是在第二季。但對於下半年，正如我之前提到的，我們確實預計會看到良好的成長。

On the second part of your question in terms of market opportunities, for sure, these are highly uncertain times. Our job and what we're trying to do is to help customers solve their problems. And we're out there every day. This is trench work.

關於你問題的第二部分，就市場機會而言，當然，這是一個高度不確定的時期。我們的工作以及我們正在努力做的是幫助客戶解決他們的問題。我們每天都在那裡。這是戰壕工作。

We're talking to them every single day. Everybody is out there. We're pounding the pavement. We're trying to stay very, very close to them. My sense is that necessity creates opportunity and the market is going to find a way for some of these things that are challenged.

我們每天都在和他們交談。大家都在那裡。我們正在人行道上行走。我們試圖與他們保持非常非常密切的聯繫。我的感覺是，需要創造機會，市場將會找到解決這些挑戰的方法。

Maybe a couple of things that we've been working on. We've got a new intermodal service starting short sea from Mexico into Gulfport at the Crowley service that we're very excited about. We're going to build that out. We're also developing our partnership with Ferromex for the CGR ferry between Mexico and the Gulf.

也許是我們正在努力做的一些事情。我們推出了新的多式聯運服務，從墨西哥的短程海運航線開始，經由克勞利航線到達格爾夫波特，我們對此感到非常興奮。我們會實現這個目標。我們也正在與 Ferromex 建立合作夥伴關係，共同經營墨西哥和墨西哥灣之間的 CGR 渡輪。

There are potential opportunities in terms of intra-US and intra-Canada moves, for example, in refined, for steel, scrap, and lumber. So we have to see how things develop. And that's going to be a function also of the new Canadian administrations target of setting a new intra-Canada trade deal before, I think I said July 1. So we'll see how that takes out, we'll be there to help, and I talked about Gemini a little bit.

美國國內和加拿大國內的精煉鋼材、廢料和木材的運輸有潛在機會。所以我們必須看看事態如何發展。這也將成為加拿大新政府在 7 月 1 日之前製定新的加拿大內部貿易協定的目標之一。因此，我們將觀察其進展情況，並隨時提供幫助，我稍微談到了雙子座。

So it's going to be a little challenging as we go through the air pocket here in the second quarter, but we've got the service reliability that our customers need to deliver for the rest of the year.

因此，當我們在第二季度經歷這個困難時期時，將面臨一些挑戰，但我們已經獲得了客戶在今年剩餘時間內所需的服務可靠性。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe just one quick clarification on the exposure from Canada into the US. Do you have a sense, Remi, in terms of just how much of your intermodal and, I guess, total business is going into Canadian ports and then through the US and therefore might be potentially impacted by some of this tariff uncertainty?

嘿，下午好。感謝您回答這個問題。也許只是想快速澄清一下從加拿大到美國的暴露情況。雷米，您是否知道您的多式聯運業務以及總體業務中有多少是進入加拿大港口，然後途經美國，因此可能會受到關稅不確定性的影響？

And then maybe for Derek or Pat, I just wanted to ask a little bit how you're feeling about head count network flexibility. Obviously, weather was pretty tough here this quarter, but you've also had some challenges with some of the work rules in the recent past. So I just want to hear how you feel coming out of the quarter and perhaps the ability to flex up and down during this upcoming air pocket.

然後也許對於 Derek 或 Pat，我只是想問一下您對人數網絡靈活性的看法。顯然，本季這裡的天氣相當惡劣，但最近你們也遇到了一些與一些工作規則相關的挑戰。所以我只是想聽聽你對這個季度的感受，以及在即將到來的氣泡期間你是否有能力上下移動。

Okay. Thanks for the question, Brian. So to answer your question, when we look at the total international business, which is about 12%, 13% of our total book, one-third of that is US. And an anticipation of potentially another question, how much of that is China, it's about half of that particular number. Pat? Derek?

好的。謝謝你的提問，布萊恩。所以回答你的問題，當我們看整個國際業務時，它約占我們總業務的 12%、13%，其中三分之一是美國。預計可能會出現另一個問題，其中有多少是中國，約佔該數字的一半。拍？德里克？

On the manpower, I would say -- this is Pat -- as we come out of the quarter, this quarter really was January and March. The network was very fluid. We had the weather we've already discussed in February, not going to dwell on it. It was significantly impactful to what we see and what we've shown. Once again, it's a quick recovery. The strength of our operating model, the scheduled model is that we recovered very quickly.

關於人力，我想說——這是帕特——當我們走出這個季度時，這個季度實際上是一月和三月。網路非常流暢。我們已經討論過二月的天氣狀況，不再贅述。它對我們所看到和展示的內容產生了重大影響。再次，恢復很快。我們的營運模式、預定模式的優勢在於我們恢復得非常快。

And thus far in the quarter, we have seen velocity and speed return to the network. We feel very good about where we are as it relates to people. As we sit here today, we have 470 training engine service furloughs and about 50 in mechanical. We feel very good about our ability to chase the upside of volume and further adjust if the volume falls off.

截至本季度，我們已經看到網路速度的恢復。我們對自己與人們的關係感到非常滿意。今天，當我們坐在這裡時，我們有 470 名培訓引擎服務人員休假，還有大約 50 名機械服務人員休假。我們對自己追逐成交量上漲並在成交量下跌時進一步調整的能力感到非常滿意。

We will watch the health of network metrics to see how we're trending and frankly, watch the productivity metrics on the car fleet, the locomotives as it relates to GTM per total horsepower and the GTMs per employee. And we have a lot of levers to pull and pull quickly if we need to adjust.

我們將觀察網路指標的健康狀況，以了解我們的趨勢，坦白說，觀察車隊、機車的生產力指標，因為它與每總馬力的 GTM 和每位員工的 GTM 相關。如果我們需要調整，我們可以利用很多槓桿來快速調整。

Brian, it's Tracy. Let me give the guys a little bit of kudo. They are doing in this past quarter and as we go into April, a lot more with a lot fewer resources. And that's particularly the case with people. You've heard Derek talk about the kinds of velocity that this railroad is operating at right now and consistency from a customer service perspective.

布萊恩，我是崔西。讓我向這些傢伙致以一點敬意。在過去的一個季度以及進入四月時，他們用更少的資源做了更多的事情。對於人來說尤其如此。您已經聽過德里克談論這條鐵路目前的營運速度以及從客戶服務角度的一致性。

You heard Pat talk about the labor productivity improvements year-over-year, you could see that sequentially as well. So they're doing a great job, and we do -- they have maintained that ability to flex up or flex down depending on what is needed. The secret is going to be none of us know exactly what's going to happen from here. But the secret, of course, is going to be seeing it as quickly as possible. And so Remi is staying really close to our customers on that, and we're ready for whatever comes.

您聽到帕特談到勞動生產力逐年提高，您也可以看到這一點逐年提高。所以他們做得很好，我們也做得很好——他們保持了根據需要靈活變通的能力。秘密是，沒有人確切知道接下來會發生什麼。但秘訣當然是盡快看到它。因此，Remi 在這方面與我們的客戶保持密切聯繫，我們已準備好應對任何可能發生的情況。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

So maybe to follow up on that question. As we've seen the operations of the business improve in March and now into April and the second quarter here. I guess, how do we think about sort of the operating ratio cadence as we go through the year? Maybe if you could offer some thoughts on maybe 2Q or full year, kind of however you guys are thinking about it?

所以也許可以繼續追問這個問題。我們看到，三月、四月以及第二季度，業務運作情況都有改善。我想，我們如何看待這一年的營運比率節奏？也許您可以就第二季或全年提出一些想法，您們是怎麼想的？

We don't really guide, as you know, Chris, on operating ratio quarter-by-quarter or at all, really. I think what we've said, if we look at next year and what the team managed through from a labor kind of unpredictability and what happened at the ports last year. As we tally all of that up, we see a couple of hundred basis points that we can attribute to that. And so we've talked about that from this year's perspective, and we keep our eye on that. What happens on any given quarter is going to depend on a couple of things.

正如你所知，克里斯，我們實際上並沒有逐季度或根本不對營運比率進行指導。我認為我們已經說過，如果我們展望明年，以及團隊如何應對勞動力的不可預測性以及去年港口發生的事情。當我們把所有這些加起來時，我們發現有幾百個基點可以歸因於此。因此，我們從今年的角度討論了這個問題，並將繼續關注這個問題。任何特定季度發生的情況都取決於幾個因素。

One is the volume because we know that there's magic in volume. And you have volume of these guys, and it's amazing how they handle it and how efficiently they handle it. And the second thing is the third-party shops, whether it be weather or we've had fires in the past. And it's bad to have been there, but we've gotten very good at this. And so where we do have those third-party shops, the guys look the railroad up really, really quickly and effectively. So those are the kinds of things to keep your eyes on.

一是音量，因為我們知道音量具有魔力。這些人數量眾多，他們的處理方式和效率令人驚嘆。第二件事是第三方商店，無論是天氣原因還是過去發生的火災。經歷過這樣的事情確實很糟糕，但我們已經做得很好了。因此，在我們確實有第三方商店的地方，人們可以非常快速有效地找到鐵路資訊。所以這些都是需要你注意的事情。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets

Walter Spracklin，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場

Thanks very much, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. I want to come back to Gemini. And I know your competitor has kind of signaled that, that's been a big game for them in Vancouver, but you're also flagging that you've had some great inroads into that customer as well. And I'm just curious if you're seeing some of these alliances now kind of consolidate in different areas.

非常感謝，接線員，大家午安。我想回到雙子座。我知道你的競爭對手已經暗示了這一點，這對他們在溫哥華來說是一場大戰，但你也表明你已經在爭取該客戶方面取得了一些進展。我只是好奇，您是否看到這些聯盟現在在不同領域有所鞏固。

I know you're going to have us up in Rupert and you flagged Gemini up into Rupert. Do you see them directing some of your business that perhaps you would have taken in Vancouver up into Prince Rupert? And is that allowing you to operate more efficiently given that you're single served in the Prince Rupert? Just curious as to what explains kind of both of you highlighting Gemini here as a great opportunity for you both.

我知道你會讓我們進入魯伯特，而且你還把雙子座標誌帶到了魯伯特。您是否認為他們會把您在溫哥華開展的一些業務轉移到魯珀特王子港？鑑於你們在魯伯特王子港只服務一個人，這是否能讓你們更有效率地運作？我只是好奇，如何解釋你們兩個都強調雙子座對你們倆來說是一個很好的機會。

Thanks, Walter. I think the reason that we're highlighting it is because Gemini is kind of bringing a different approach with a service promise that is above what the industry has typically seen. And we think it plays very well into our hand because the way that we sell Rupert is exactly on that basis. Because there isn't a city sort of surrounding the port, if you will, we can service it very, very well.

謝謝，沃爾特。我認為我們強調這一點的原因是 Gemini 採取了一種不同的方式，其服務承諾超出了業界通常所見的範圍。我們認為這對我們來說非常有利，因為我們銷售魯伯特的方式正是基於此。因為港口周圍沒有城市，所以如果您願意，我們可以為其提供非常非常好的服務。

And so we sell that service reliability, that service consistency to kind of build it out. So we have pulled some volume into Rupert with the Gemini Alliance. As I said, it's exceeding our expectations not only for US volume, but also seeing Canadian volumes as well. So pretty satisfied with how that's coming along.

因此，我們出售的是服務可靠性、服務一致性，以便將其推廣出去。因此，我們透過雙子座聯盟為魯伯特帶來了一些流量。正如我所說，它不僅超出了我們對美國銷售的預期，也超出了我們對加拿大銷售的預期。所以對於事情的進展非常滿意。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Hey, great, good afternoon. So it sounds like you got a great rebound out of the weather. But maybe if I could just follow up on the near term. And I know, Tracy, you said you don't give guidance, but I just want to understand maybe the rebound capacity here. So one, on revenue per RTM, should we see sequential improvement on that or down because of fuel and FX?

嘿，太好了，下午好。聽起來你已經從惡劣天氣中恢復過來了。但也許我只能跟進近期的情況。我知道，特蕾西，你說過你不提供指導，但我只是想了解這裡的反彈能力。那麼，首先，就每 RTM 收入而言，我們是否應該看到其連續改善，還是因為燃料和外匯而下降？

And on the operating ratio, I know you don't want to give guidance, but just if the weather was so bad in the first quarter, can you just like directionally, should it outperform normal seasonality just given the weather rebound or are there other factors you throw in there?

關於營業比率，我知道您不想給予指導，但如果第一季的天氣如此惡劣，您能否給出方向性的建議？考慮到天氣反彈，營業比率是否應該超過正常的季節性？還是有其他因素要考慮？

And same for the RTMs where we were flat in the first quarter, now it's down 2% quarter-to-date, so a bit below kind of growth targets. Does that mean a bigger ramp you're expecting in the back half?

RTM 也是如此，第一季持平，而本季迄今已下降 2%，略低於成長目標。這是否意味著您預計後半部的坡道會更大？

Ken, listen, the revenue for RTM is going to depend on what kind of volumes show up, right, because mix can really move revenue per RTM around. And so I would say that the uncertainty as we think about the impact of tariffs and those types of things is greater than it was before. So really, how revenue per RTM shows up is going to be dependent on some of that.

肯，聽著，RTM 的收入將取決於出現什麼樣的銷量，對吧，因為組合確實可以改變每個 RTM 的收入。因此我想說，當我們考慮關稅和諸如此類的事情的影響時，不確定性比以前更大了。因此，實際上，每 RTM 收入如何體現將取決於其中的一些因素。

From an OR perspective, the guys did a great job. The OR in Q1 was roughly what you would expect in Q1 with the normal winter. As we go into Q2, we're expecting the toughest year-over-year volume comp in Q2 given how strong it was. But we intend -- we expect to get kind of more efficient as the year progresses. Remi has been doing some strong pricing. We're probably a little bit ahead of plan on pricing. The velocity of the network is very strong. And so we would expect, as you look towards the end of the year to see some really good margin improvement.

從手術室的角度來看，這些傢伙做得非常好。第一季的 OR 大致與正常冬季第一季的預期一致。進入第二季度，考慮到其強勁的表現，我們預計第二季度的同比銷量將最為艱難。但我們打算——我們預計隨著時間的推移，效率會更高。Remi 一直在做一些強而有力的定價。我們的定價可能比計劃稍微提前了一點。網路速度非常快。因此，我們預計，到年底利潤率將出現真正良好的成長。

And Ghis, did you want to make any comments on --

Ghis，你想對--

Yeah, Tracy, thanks. Maybe just on fuel Ken, as I said in my opening remarks, fuel was negative on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter by $0.07 or 50 basis points to the OR. If the fuel prices, OHD and WTI stays where it is today, we don't expect any impact on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter.

是的，特蕾西，謝謝。也許只是關於燃料，肯，正如我在開場白中所說的那樣，第一季度燃料價格與去年同期相比下降了 0.07 美元，即下降了 50 個基點。如果燃料價格、OHD 和 WTI 維持在目前的水平，我們預計第二季的年比價格不會產生任何影響。

Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Cowen.

Cherilyn Radbourne，TD Cowen。

Thanks very much and good afternoon. As you think about how trade flows may reconfigure into a new normal, can you talk about the kind of discussions that you're having with your other rail partners about existing and potential new alliances? And do you think that there's potential that new terms of trade reopen a conversation about industry consolidation?

非常感謝，下午好。當您思考貿易流動如何重新配置​​為新常態時，您能否談談您與其他鐵路合作夥伴就現有和潛在的新聯盟進行的討論？您是否認為新的貿易條款有可能重新引發有關產業整合的討論？

Hi Cherilyn, well, I can tell you that we continue to like the benefits of the partnership. We're working more closely across the industry together to provide our customers with the benefits of single-line type service. And we'll continue to explore these. I think there's lots more opportunities on that front, whether it's with the Class 1s or whether it's with others. And we think that's the right thing to do.

你好 Cherilyn，我可以告訴你，我們仍然喜歡這種合作關係帶來的好處。我們正在與整個行業進行更緊密的合作，為我們的客戶提供單線服務的優勢。我們將繼續探索這些問題。我認為在這方面還有更多機會，無論是與 Class 1 還是與其他。我們認為這是正確的做法。

So if you think about the Falcon with UP and FXE connecting Mexico to Canada on truck conversion. If you think about the Crowley service that Remi just mentioned, connecting CN to Mexico via barge, that's focused more on container traffic. If you think about Lynx connecting Eastern US with Canada for truck conversion or the Ohio Valley access with both NS and CSX. There's opportunities to gain a lot of benefits without the significant risk on either capital or kind of regulatory risk.

因此，如果您考慮將 Falcon 與 UP 和 FXE 改裝成卡車，連接墨西哥和加拿大。如果您想想雷米剛才提到的克勞利服務，即透過駁船連接加拿大國家鐵路和墨西哥，這項服務更側重於貨櫃運輸。如果您考慮使用 Lynx 將美國東部與加拿大連接起來以進行卡車改裝，或使用 NS 和 CSX 連接俄亥俄河谷。有機會獲得許多利益，而不必承擔重大的資本風險或監管風險。

So consolidation, it's always a topic of conversation in this industry, has been my entire career in the industry. And certainly, in the context of the current US administration, there seems to be a little bit more chatter right now. But at the same time, the risk of these types of combinations are significant. The new rules that came in, in 2001, set a pretty high bar for the kind of Class 1 rail mergers that we may have seen in the past.

因此，整合始終是這個行業的一個話題，也貫穿了我整個產業生涯。當然，在當前美國政府的背景下，現在似乎有更多的閒聊。但同時，這些類型的組合的風險也很大。2001 年推出的新規則為我們過去可能見過的一級鐵路合併設定了相當高的門檻。

So certainly for us, the focus is going to be on leveraging pretty significant benefits of our network and working with our partners where it makes sense to offer our customers kind of more of those -- the benefits of the single line type of service offering.

因此，對我們來說，重點肯定是利用我們網路的相當顯著的優勢，並與我們的合作夥伴合作，為我們的客戶提供更多這樣的優勢——單線服務產品的優勢。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey, thanks, afternoon. So I think I heard you mention that the earnings growth is going to be a little bit more back-half weighted. I think some of the volume growth more back-half weighted. I just want to understand, is that simply just a function of the comp or is there some assumption that, hey, we've got an air pocket in Q2 and things improve in the back half of the year.

嘿，謝謝，下午好。所以我想我聽到你提到獲利成長將會更多地受到後半年的加權。我認為部分交易量的成長更多的是後半部的加權。我只是想了解一下，這僅僅是公司業績的一個功能，還是存在某種假設，即，嘿，我們在第二季度出現了一個氣泡，而下半年情況會有所改善。

And then maybe just with that, just to understand some of the moving parts, like -- is there -- did we change the FX assumptions? Is that a headwind to the guidance or not really a change there?

然後也許僅僅透過這一點，就可以了解一些活動部分，例如 - 我們是否改變了外匯假設？這對指導來說是一個阻力嗎？或者實際上不是一個變化嗎？

Scott, I'm going to start off and then I'll hand it to Remi for a little bit of color on the volume profile, and Ghis will take the FX question. So in general, I think the short answer to your first part is it's both. Without a doubt, if you look on a year-over-year basis on volumes that the strength of the year-over-year because of the volume impact of the labor uncertainty and then the port outages last year, we're not going to have that this year. So you're going to get a lift from that.

斯科特，我先開始，然後我會把它交給雷米，讓他對音量分佈做一些說明，然後吉斯會回答 FX 問題。所以總的來說，我認為對你的第一部分來說，簡短的回答是兩者兼而有之。毫無疑問，如果按同比來算，你會發現，由於勞動力不確定性和去年港口停運對貨運量的影響，同比的強勁增長，而今年的貨運量不會再出現這種情況。因此你會因此而得到提升。

But we also -- if we look at our book of business and what's being driven, Remi stated earlier, we're not expecting a significant lift from the economy. But what we are expecting is what we have line of sight on to our CN specific initiatives. So Remi, do you want to add a little bit of color on that? And then, Ghis, I'd ask you to take the FX one.

但我們也——如果我們看看我們的業務記錄和正在推動的因素，雷米之前說過，我們並不期望經濟會出現顯著的提振。但我們所期待的是，我們對我們的 CN 特定舉措有著清晰的認識。那麼雷米，你想添加一點顏色嗎？然後，吉斯，我請你選擇 FX 版本。

Yes. What I'd say -- thanks for the question, Scott. So the tariffs are starting to bite. And so we're seeing that in the intermodal business. We called it out a bit of an air pocket with an increase in blank sailings, and we're taking a bit more of a cautious approach to some of the other segments, the metals and mining, the autos in particular. And so there is part of a comp, part of structural there.

是的。我想說的是──謝謝你的提問，史考特。因此，關稅開始產生影響。我們在多式聯運業務中也看到了這一點。我們稱空白航班數量增加是一個空檔，我們對其他一些領域，特別是金屬和採礦業，以及汽車領域，採取了更謹慎的態度。因此，這裡有一部分補償，一部分結構。

And as we talked about, when we think about our growth over the course of the year, there are these line of sight projects that we're excited about when we look at US grain and the growth for ethanol to use that as an example, it's encouraging and sand as well. And then we've got some new met coal opportunities -- relatively new met coal opportunities that are growing in Western Canada as well.

正如我們所討論的，當我們考慮我們一年來的增長時，我們會發現這些視線項目讓我們感到興奮，以美國穀物和乙醇的增長為例，這是令人鼓舞的，沙子也是如此。然後，我們獲得了一些新的冶金煤機會——相對較新的冶金煤機會也在加拿大西部不斷增長。

So that's the sort of sum total of how we ground our guidance. It wasn't based on any sort of robust economic industrial production. And as we've mentioned earlier, we're sort of clearly indicating more of a tepid industrial production for the rest of the year. Ghislain?

這就是我們制定指導意見的整體情況。它不是基於任何強勁的經濟工業生產。正如我們之前提到的，我們明確地預測今年剩餘時間的工業生產將更加不溫不火。吉斯蘭？

Yeah. Scott, on FX. As you know, we disclosed our assumptions and our assumptions on FX for 2025 is $0.70 or approximately $0.70. If you look at the current spot rate, and it's been like this, mostly all Q1 is about $0.72. When you compare this with the average FX of last year, it was $0.73.

是的。斯科特，FX 頻道。如您所知，我們揭露了我們的假設，我們對2025年外匯匯率的假設是0.70美元，或大約是0.70美元。如果您看一下目前的即期匯率，而且情況一直如此，那麼第一季的大部分時間都在0.72美元左右。如果與去年的平均匯率相比，則為0.73美元。

And as you know, the rule of thumb is every penny of Canadian dollar depreciation versus US provides about $0.05 on an annualized basis of EPS. So actually, if FX remains at $0.72 for the balance of the year, it will be a tailwind of about $0.05 of EPS.

如您所知，經驗法則是加幣兌美元每貶值一分錢，年化每股收益就會減少約 0.05 美元。因此實際上，如果外匯在今年餘下時間保持在 0.72 美元，它將為每股收益帶來約 0.05 美元的順風。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

I wanted to maybe ask Tracy or Remi a longer-term question about the competitiveness of Rupert, right? If we think about a world where maybe trade barriers are up a little higher, there's a little bit more cost, maybe there's less absolute trade. How do you think Rupert would fare on the container share versus US West Coast ports?

我想問 Tracy 或 Remi 一個關於 Rupert 競爭力的長期問題，對嗎？如果我們設想一下，貿易壁壘可能稍微高一點，成本可能稍微高一點，絕對貿易可能會減少。您認為魯珀特港與美國西海岸港口相比貨櫃份額如何？

Do you think it would be right to think that, that volume that was still coming over even if it was a small absolute amount would be more oriented around Rupert? Or do you think it will be subject to also some share losses as a result of higher trade frictions?

您是否認為這樣的想法是正確的，即使絕對數量很少，但仍然有越來越多的人關注魯珀特？或者您認為由於貿易摩擦加劇，該公司的市佔率也會遭受損失嗎？

Well, I'll say this, David, and then I'll hand it over to Remi for the proof points. But I would say Rupert has got a competitive advantage in almost any situation. When you think about it from a container perspective -- I'll let Remi take you through that. But for many of you who may be going up there with Remi shortly here, what you'll see is that the growth in Rupert on the bulk and on the liquid side is also pretty stunning. And so we're jazzed about kind of the future of Rupert and the competitive advantage that it offers on pretty much every commodity. Remi?

好吧，大衛，我會這麼說，然後我會把它交給雷米來提供證據。但我想說，魯伯特幾乎在任何情況下都具有競爭優勢。當您從容器的角度考慮這個問題時——我會讓 Remi 帶您了解這一點。但對你們中的許多人來說，可能很快就會和雷米一起去那裡，你們會看到魯伯特在散裝和液體方面的增長也相當驚人。因此，我們對 Rupert 的未來以及它在幾乎所有商品上提供的競爭優勢感到非常興奮。雷米？

Yes. I'll echo exactly what you said. We're very bullish on Rupert. I think the value proposition there still holds. And customers are going to look at it on an end-to-end basis. And so when we think about it on the boxes side, on the intermodal, it's the fastest and flattest road to the Midwest. There's no port or city congestion comparable to what you see in other terminals in the West.

是的。我完全同意你的說法。我們非常看好魯伯特。我認為那裡的價值主張仍然成立。客戶將會從端到端的角度來看它。因此，當我們從箱子方面考慮時，從聯運的角度考慮，這是通往中西部最快、最平坦的道路。這裡的港口或城市擁擠情況與西方其他碼頭不同。

It's very cost competitive as well, and it allows us to give the service reliability that the Gemini lines are showing us customers are looking for. But as Tracy said, it's not just an intermodal product. There are significant investments, and I look forward to welcoming many of you as possible to Rupert later this summer, so that they can show themselves off and the capital they're putting in the ground to grow the gateway, which we're very excited about.

它的成本也非常有競爭力，並且使我們能夠提供雙子星航線所展示的客戶所尋求的可靠服務。但正如特蕾西所說，它不僅僅是一種多式聯運產品。這裡有大量投資，我期待今年夏天晚些時候歡迎你們中的許多人來到魯珀特，這樣他們就可以展示自己以及他們為發展門戶而投入的資金，我們對此感到非常興奮。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Oh, thanks, guys. I appreciate the time. At the risk of perhaps being too granular in the weeds, I was just hoping you could maybe speak to the magnitude of blank sailings you're expecting through 2Q. And perhaps even just if you have any color on to what those blank sailings might look into Q3 at this point. There's just a lot of debate about this within the broader due course.

噢，謝謝大家。我很感激你抽出時間。儘管可能過於詳細，我只是希望您能談談您預計第二季空白航班的數量。或許您甚至還知道此時這些空白航班可能會對第三季產生什麼影響。在更廣泛的範圍內，對此存在著許多爭論。

Yeah. Look, Steve, there's a lot of uncertainty about that. I don't have bullet-proof data on incoming port traffic. I think the ports have been pretty good about reporting on that. What I would tell you is that we think the impact of places like Rupert is not as significant as what we've heard from other of the Western terminals. So there's going to be a bit of an air pocket. I only see maybe a month or two max out. But as I said, the impact on a place like Rupert and Vancouver is not nearly as severe.

是的。聽著，史蒂夫，這件事有很多不確定性。我沒有關於傳入連接埠流量的可靠數據。我認為港口對此的報道已經相當不錯了。我想告訴你的是，我們認為魯珀特等地的影響並不像我們從其他西部航站樓聽到的那麼嚴重。因此，將會有一點氣穴。我只看到可能最多一兩個月的時間。但正如我所說，對魯伯特和溫哥華這樣的地方的影響並沒有那麼嚴重。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基。

Hey, good evening and thanks for taking the question. Remi, and I think maybe Tracy spoke to this at a high level, but there's always unintended consequences of actions in the world. So with potential trade barriers going up with the US, have customers come out of the woodwork saying, Hey, can we reshape the supply chain to maybe be more export centric from Canada to other partners? Can you just give us some ideas of where maybe this is creating longer-term opportunities for you? Thank you.

嘿，晚上好，感謝您回答這個問題。雷米，我想特蕾西可能在高層談到了這一點，但世界上的行為總是會帶來意想不到的後果。因此，隨著與美國之間潛在的貿易壁壘不斷上升，客戶是否會跳出來說，嘿，我們能否重塑供應鏈，使其更加以從加拿大向其他合作夥伴的出口為中心？您能否給我們一些想法，告訴我們這可能為您創造哪些長期機會？謝謝。

Thanks, Brandon. Listen, those conversations are going on. And I would say it's happening at all levels. If you look in Canada, even through the election that's taking place, a lot of the themes are in what ways and how quickly can we diversify some of our markets. And those opportunities are going to be there. The US and Canada will always be very important and very close trading partners kind of in any scenario.

謝謝，布蘭登。聽著，這些對話正在進行中。我想說的是，這種現像在各個層面都在發生。如果你看看加拿大，即使透過正在進行的選舉，很多主題都是關於我們如何以及如何快速地實現部分市場的多元化。這些機會將會存在。無論在什麼情況下，美國和加拿大永遠都是非常重要且非常密切的貿易夥伴。

But certainly, those conversations have intensified. And so given the access we have to global markets at Rupert, Vancouver and Halifax and Montreal and St. John and down the Gulf Coast, we're an obvious partner for those types of conversations. So they're taking place. I would say, as Remi said in his comments earlier that our customers are kind of on a wait-and-see basis.

但可以肯定的是，這些對話已經愈演愈烈。因此，鑑於我們能夠進入魯珀特、溫哥華、哈利法克斯、蒙特婁、聖約翰和墨西哥灣沿岸的全球市場，我們顯然是此類對話的合作夥伴。所以它們正在發生。我想說，正如雷米之前在評論中所說，我們的客戶處於觀望態度。

So lots of ideas, lots of thinking, I think, some opportunities they're always going to go towards the best and most consistent and lowest risk netback, right? So there's some stuff that remains up in the air around where these tariffs are going to take us, but I would say that there's more and more optionality being considered as we think about kind of what could happen here.

所以有很多想法，很多思考，我認為，他們總是會抓住一些機會來獲得最好、最一致、最風險最低的淨回報，對嗎？因此，關於這些關稅將給我們帶來什麼影響，還有一些問題懸而未決，但我想說，當我們思考可能發生的事情時，我們會考慮越來越多的可選性。

And Remi, anything you want to say in specific on them, I think we can probably leave it at a high level or what do you think?

雷米，您想具體談談他們什麼，我想我們可以將其保持在高水平，或者您覺得怎麼樣？

Yeah. I guess there's a couple of things just to build on that, which is a great answer. I think there is, as Canada is thinking about infrastructure investments, the Prime Minister has been very clear about how we, as a nation, diversify the economy and that needs infrastructure. And so we think there's going to have to be a conversation about opening opportunities, for example, to export crude from the West Coast and relaxing some of the rules around allowing tankers to access places like Prince Rupert.

是的。我想，有幾件事可以在此基礎上進一步發展，這是一個很好的答案。我認為，加拿大正在考慮基礎設施投資，總理已經非常清楚地表明，作為一個國家，我們如何實現經濟多元化，而這需要基礎設施。因此，我們認為必須要討論開放機會，例如從西海岸出口原油，以及放寬一些允許油輪進入魯珀特王子港等地的規定。

There's discussions about investing in port and terminal infrastructure. For example, the Port of Montreal is excited about developing, to your point, on the longer term, developing the Port of Contrecoeur, which is on the south shore of the St. Lawrence River for which we would be a strategic partner.

有關於投資港口和碼頭基礎設施的討論。例如，正如您所說，蒙特利爾港對於長期開發位於聖勞倫斯河南岸的孔特雷科爾港感到非常興奮，我們將成為該港的戰略合作夥伴。

And so I think there's a number of things. Maybe use it as an opportunity, Tracy, to also talk about Milton. So what we're seeing is Canada traffic is growing. We are excited about the project that we have in Milton because there is a lot of growth going into Toronto. So that's a mid-'27 project for us. But this is all stuff that we can do to help densify the network and operate to the full potential.

所以我認為有很多事情。特蕾西，也許可以利用這個機會來談論米爾頓。因此，我們看到的是加拿大的交通量正在增加。我們對米爾頓的計畫感到非常興奮，因為多倫多正在經歷巨大的發展。所以對我們來說這是一個 27 年中期的專案。但這些都是我們可以做的事情，以幫助增強網路密度並充分發揮其潛力。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Konark Gupta。

I just wanted to get back to the guidance to understand it more holistically, what's going on here. So like three months ago, you guys expected 10% to 15%. We're still seeing 10% to 15% for the full year. But things have changed, obviously, in the market in these three months. And obviously, a lot of people are concerned about the macro environment clearly here as well as the Canadian dollar has moved up slightly.

我只是想回到指南中，更全面地了解這裡發生的事情。就像三個月前一樣，你們預計成長率為 10% 到 15%。我們預計全年成長率仍將達到 10% 至 15%。但顯然，這三個月來市場狀況發生了變化。顯然，很多人都擔心這裡的宏觀環境以及加幣的小幅上漲。

I mean if the conditions remain where they are right now from a macro perspective and from FX perspective, are you guys expecting to be heading towards up the midpoint of the range? Or are we heading more sort of towards the low end of the range? I'm just thinking like what are the key puts and takes for the high and the low end?

我的意思是，如果從宏觀角度和外匯角度來看，情況仍然保持現狀，你們是否預期會走向區間的中點？或者說我們正朝著該範圍的低端邁進？我只是在想高端和低端的關鍵投入和產出是什麼？

So Konark, listen, we try and model this out too, but the degrees of the range of possibilities here is quite right. What I'd tell you is this. We've got a good first four months under our belt. We're on plan, we're where we wanted to be. We did expect uncertainty. It's probably more -- it's definitely more uncertain than we would have been in as we were putting the plan together in January. The probability of a recession, if you listen to those that opine these things is greater than it was before. But as we advance through the year, the risk of the impact on the year diminishes.

所以，科納克，聽著，我們也嘗試對此進行建模，但這裡的可能性範圍的程度是相當正確的。我要告訴你的是這個。我們已取得了良好的前四個月成績。我們正在按照計劃進行，並且已經到達了我們想要去的地方。我們確實預料到了不確定性。這可能更加——肯定比我們在一月份制定計劃時更加不確定。如果你聽取那些人的意見，你會發現經濟衰退的可能性比以前更大。但隨著時間的推移，對今年產生影響的風險逐漸減少。

We have, as Remi has taken you through line of sight on certain initiatives and projects that we're doing with our customers that are less reliant on the underlying economy. And of course, we have a much easier compare in the second half of the year. So all of those things combined, we think that, that range -- we can hit that range as long as the volume this year remains positive, which we expect it to hit.

正如雷米 (Remi) 向您介紹的那樣，我們與客戶合作開展的某些計劃和專案對基礎經濟的依賴程度較低。當然，下半年的比較就容易得多。因此，綜合所有這些因素，我們認為，只要今年的交易量保持正值，我們就能達到這個範圍，我們預計它會達到這個範圍。

All kinds of different scenarios based on different tariff outcomes and time lines that could put you at different places in the range. And I think we'll just leave it at -- we like the range we're at.

基於不同關稅結果和時間線的各種不同情境可能會將您置於範圍內的不同位置。我認為我們就保持現狀——我們喜歡現在的範圍。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克（Ravi Shanker）。

Maybe just a follow up on the previous question on what's happening with customers here. Just on the pipeline of business, you kind of reiterated your long-term guidance, but are those conversations on how to deal with tariffs long term? Do you accelerate in sourcing? Or do you push out? Are those happening now? Or are they getting pushed out as well? So I'm just asking from the pipeline perspective, have any big projects in your pipeline got pushed out from your initial timeline?

也許只是對上一個問題的後續詢問，了解這裡的客戶發生了什麼事。就在業務管道上，您重申了您的長期指導，但這些討論是否涉及如何長期應對關稅問題？您是否加快了採購速度？還是你推開了？這些現在正在發生嗎？還是他們也被趕出去了？所以我只是從管道的角度問一下，您的管道中是否有任何大項目被推遲到最初的時間表？

I would say there's very few, if any. I would say, it's more of what Remi said earlier, Ravi, which is there's a lot of wait and see we do expect if tariffs and the economy were to fall down, there may be some of that. There's others that are coming up. Remi, did you have anything you want to add to that?

我想說，如果有的話，也是非常少的。我想說，這更像是雷米之前所說的，拉維，那就是我們確實需要等待很長時間才能看到結果，如果關稅和經濟下滑，那麼可能會出現一些這樣的情況。還有其他的即將出現。雷米，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. Two that come to mind, Tracy. One is there's -- probably all saw that Dow announced that they were pausing their investment for their path to zero project in Fort Saskatchewan. We didn't have any volume increases, part of that until 2028. Our understanding is that, to your point, Ravi, that, that is sort of in light of the macroeconomic conditions and that they're still very keen on the project, but it's going to take a bit of time for them to get some comfort. We're still growing with Dow. We still serve them and there's some debottlenecking that will pick up there. So that's one.

是的。我想到兩個，特蕾西。一是——可能大家都看到陶氏宣布他們將暫停對薩斯喀徹溫堡零排放計畫的投資。我們的產量沒有任何增加，部分增加要到 2028 年。我們的理解是，正如你所說，拉維，這是考慮到宏觀經濟條件，他們仍然非常熱衷於這個項目，但他們需要一些時間來適應。我們仍在與陶氏共同成長。我們仍然為他們提供服務，並且會解決一些瓶頸問題。這就是其中之一。

The second one is around EVs and auto plants. Obviously, the auto industry is rethinking their long-term strategy where they're going to manufacture vehicles in North America. We have 11 origin franchises mainly in Michigan and in Ontario. And so we're trying to stay very close to customers as they think their way through that.

第二個是關於電動車和汽車工廠。顯然，汽車產業正在重新考慮在北美生產汽車的長期策略。我們擁有 11 家原產地特許經營店，主要位於密西根州和安大略省。因此，我們試圖在客戶思考這個問題時與他們保持密切聯繫。

And we're seeing some strength in other areas. We just had this quarter, the FID announcement on our -- what is now, Remi, our third high-throughput frac sand facility up in Northeast BC. And so that is underpinned by both customer investment and customer commitment. So as in any kind of opportunity pipeline, there's some strength and some that have more question marks, but we're pretty positive.

我們也看到了其他領域的一些優勢。本季度，我們剛剛發布了 FID 公告，宣布了我們現在的 Remi，這是我們位於不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部的第三個高通量壓裂砂設施。因此，這是由客戶投資和客戶承諾所支撐的。因此，就像任何類型的機會管道一樣，有一些優勢，有些則存在更多問號，但我們非常樂觀。

Yeah. And NGLs are still very promising for export markets. So we're excited about that.

是的。天然氣液體在出口市場上仍然非常有前景。所以我們對此感到很興奮。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you. I wanted to maybe touch on the labor picture for you guys today. Maybe just given all the uncertainty and the broad macro and you certainly called out some expectations across verticals or end markets. So maybe if you could talk about what you're doing from a resource and head count perspective in terms of staffing for areas where you're clearly seeing some incremental opportunities, but maybe some areas where it's a little bit weaker, and then how that all layers in with your expectations for kind of the second half and a nice little volume lift there.

嗨，下午好。謝謝。今天我想和大家談談生產的情況。也許只是考慮到所有的不確定性和廣泛的宏觀因素，你肯定會對垂直市場或終端市場提出一些期望。因此，如果您可以從資源和人員數量的角度談談您在人員配置方面所做的工作，您顯然看到了一些增量機會，但也許有些領域的人員配置稍微弱一些，然後這一切如何與您對下半年的期望相吻合，以及如何在那裡實現小幅增長。

Stephanie, it's Derek here. As Pat mentioned earlier, right now on the T&E side, we still have 468 -- roughly 470 people furloughed, and that's obviously across three different regions. So what I'd tell you, if there is downside that happens, we'll be decisive and make that decision when we see that. But at the same side, we will chase it on the way up.

史蒂芬妮，我是德里克。正如帕特之前提到的，目前在差旅和費用方面，我們仍有 468 到大約 470 人被迫休假，而且顯然分佈在三個不同的地區。所以我想告訴你的是，如果出現不利情況，我們會果斷採取行動，並在看到不利情況時做出決定。但在同一邊，我們會在上升的路上追逐它。

When you look at it, as we said, some of this volume we're seeing line of sight in the second half. And with those people there, we can quickly bring them back as they have been working as recently even in the last month, for example. So Pat and I are comfortable from the resource side with where we're at. We'll chase a bit of the upside if it's there. But at the same time, that the whole team has talked at length here, we'll be decisive if we don't see what we like and take action at that time. Thank you for the question.

正如我們所說，當你觀察它時，我們會發現下半部的交易量增加。有了這些人，我們可以很快讓他們回來，因為他們最近甚至上個月還在工作。因此，從資源方面來看，帕特和我對我們的現狀感到滿意。如果有好處的話，我們會追逐一點。但與此同時，整個團隊已經在這裡進行了長時間的討論，如果我們沒有看到我們喜歡的東西並立即採取行動，我們將果斷行動。謝謝你的提問。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀的湯姆·韋德維茨（Tom Wadewitz）。

I just have a kind of short one for you, Ghislain, and then, I guess, another one for Remi. On purchase services, Ghislain, what -- the number in 1Q is a bit lower than we were expecting. Was there anything unusual in that? Or is that kind of a good go forward?

我只為你準備了一個簡短的，吉斯蘭，然後，我想，還有另一個給雷米。關於採購服務，Ghislain，第一季的數字比我們預期的要低。這有什麼不尋常的嗎？或者這是一種好的進步嗎？

And then maybe for Remi, on the P&C, you're expecting some growth. I just wonder if some of that projects are idiosyncratic? Or is that just more of a market view? Thank you.

那麼也許對於 Remi 來說，在 P&C 方面，你期待一些成長。我只是想知道其中一些項目是否具有特殊性？或者這只是一種市場觀點？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks for the question. Maybe just on purchase services, very small variance. If you adjust for FX, I mean the variance is $5 million, 1%. Nothing unusual, slightly lower outsourced services actually explains that variance.

是的。謝謝你的提問。也許只是在購買服務上，差異很小。如果根據外匯進行調整，差異將是 500 萬美元，即 1%。沒什麼不尋常的，略低的外包服務實際上解釋了這種差異。

Yeah. And I guess from a P&C perspective, it's economic backdrop, it's market share wins in some of our businesses, but this is also where we pick up the tailwind from growing the NGL business that we were talking about, and also our refined fuels franchise, for example, the large project that we have into Toronto, which is doing really, really well, actually.

是的。我想從財產和意外險的角度來看，這是經濟背景，是我們在某些​​業務中贏得了市場份額，但這也是我們從增長我們正在談論的 NGL 業務中獲得順風的地方，還有我們的精煉燃料特許經營權，例如，我們在多倫多的大型項目，實際上做得非常非常好。

Benoit Poirier, Desjardins Capital Markets.

Benoit Poirier，德斯雅爾丹資本市場。

Yeah, good afternoon, everyone. Just to come back on the volume rebound, you expect the air pocket to last about one or two months and expect a strong volume recovery in the second half. But if the air pocket would last a bit longer and volume recovery less pronounced than expected, what would be kind of the potential levers? Or how fast could you adjust the cost structure? Any specific metrics that you monitor to end all this situation?

是的，大家下午好。回到成交量反彈的問題上，你預計空頭回補將持續約一到兩個月，並預計下半年成交量將強勁復甦。但是，如果氣穴持續時間更長，而且體積恢復不如預期那麼明顯，那麼潛在的槓桿是什麼？還是你能多快調整成本結構？您監控了哪些具體指標來結束這種情況？

Benoit, so listen, the guys that have talked about, they're on it as far as watching volumes pretty closely, and we can make those decisions fairly quickly. What's the lead time, Derek?

貝諾特，聽著，那些談論過的人，他們正在密切關注交易量，我們可以相當快地做出這些決定。交貨時間多長，德瑞克？

Well, furloughs, I mean you can do those, you send those to us out within a week. I think the most important thing, though, is Remi, myself and Pat there is daily communication in many cases. We have a formal weekly meeting every Friday amongst the three of us, along with many of our reports to review what that forecast looks like versus what's really coming in different things. So it's made us very nimble. So we'll be able to react very quickly there. Pat, do you want to add anything from the locomotive or?

嗯，休假，我的意思是你可以這樣做，你可以在一周內把它們發給我們。不過，我認為最重要的是雷米、我和帕特在許多情況下的日常交流。我們三人每週五都會舉行正式的會議，同時也會審查許多報告，以審查預測結果與實際情況。因此，它使我們變得非常靈活。因此我們能夠迅速做出反應。帕特，你想添加一些關於火車頭的東西嗎？

I would say that Derek talked about the daily conversation. So as we look forward at what's coming in as far as the forecast, what we watch very closely, I think to your question is our -- and I mentioned this, health of network metrics, how is the network train speed trending, how is the through dwell, how is the car velocity.

我想說德里克談論的是日常對話。因此，當我們展望預測的未來時，我們會密切關注，我認為您的問題是我們的——我提到過這一點，網絡指標的健康狀況，網絡列車速度趨勢如何，通過停留時間如何，車輛速度如何。

And then it's about what are the productivity metrics for each of those resources doing, what's happening with the active cars online, what's happening with the locomotive fleet as it relates to GTM for total horsepower and how productive are our employees. And those are the productivity metrics we watch to then quickly make decisions to lay down cars, lay down locomotives, furlough people, whatever it may be, and we make those decisions quickly.

然後就是關於每個資源的生產力指標是怎樣的，線上活躍車輛的情況如何，機車車隊與 GTM 總馬力的關係如何，以及我們的員工的生產力如何。這些都是我們關注的生產力指標，然後我們會迅速做出停產車、停產機車、休假人員等決定，無論發生什麼，我們都會迅速做出這些決定。

And so we're ready for that side. And as we've kind of modeled the various scenarios, Benoit, we do believe that as long as we see a positive volume growth in the year that we'll kind of hit that earnings target -- the earnings range that we've targeted.

我們已經為這一方面做好了準備。正如我們對各種情境進行建模一樣，Benoit，我們確實相信，只要我們看到今年的銷量出現正增長，我們就能達到盈利目標——我們所設定的盈利範圍。

Jon Chappell, Evercore ISI.

喬恩‧查佩爾 (Jon Chappell)，Evercore ISI。

Thank you. Good afternoon. So on the revenue per RTM, I know we've talked about currency quite a bit. If we step away from the pennies a little bit and just think about the progression from positive to potentially negative and putting a magnitude on it, rev per RTM was up 3% in 1Q.

謝謝。午安.關於每 RTM 的收入，我知道我們已經討論過很多次貨幣問題了。如果我們稍微拋開小數部分，只考慮從正數到負數的進展，並賦予其一個量級，那麼第一季每 RTM 轉速就上漲了 3%。

You have the currency, you conceptually had some mix headwinds associated with intermodal being a strong driver of the RTM growth, especially in the back half of the year. Can revenue per RTM on a year-over-year basis stay positive? Or does it shift to negative given some of those tailwinds shifting to headwinds?

您擁有貨幣，從概念上講，您面臨著與多式聯運相關的一些混合阻力，這是 RTM 成長的強勁推動力，尤其是在今年下半年。與去年同期相比，每 RTM 收入能否維持正成長？或者，由於一些順風轉為逆風，它是否會轉變為負面？

I think in most cases -- in most scenarios, it stays positive without a doubt. As we model both the international intermodal growth, the domestic growth as well as what Remi has talked about on all of our bulk and merchandise traffic, it should end up positive by year-end.

我認為在大多數情況下——在大多數情況下，它毫無疑問是積極的。當我們對國際聯運增長、國內增長以及雷米談到的所有散裝和商品運輸量進行建模時，到年底它應該會變成正數。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

丹尼爾·伊姆布羅，史蒂芬斯。

Yeah, hey, good evening, everybody. Thanks for taking our questions. Remi, I wanted to follow up on the growth conversation from earlier. You mentioned some intra-US opportunity, intra-Canada, maybe Mexico to the Gulf. What about more specifically just from Canada to Mexico and maybe those direct trading opportunities? Are those conversations you're having?

是的，嘿，大家晚上好。感謝您回答我們的問題。雷米，我想跟進一下之前關於成長的對話。您提到了一些美國國內、加拿大國內、甚至墨西哥至墨西哥灣地區的機會。更具體地說，從加拿大到墨西哥，也許有那些直接的貿易機會？這些就是你們正在進行的對話嗎？

And just related, like how do you feel about your rail service down to Mexico with your partner versus your closest competitor when we think about the competitive dynamics and maybe winning that business as it increases?

並且相關地，例如，當我們考慮競爭動態並可能隨著業務的增長而贏得該業務時，您對與您的合作夥伴和最接近的競爭對手一起提供的墨西哥鐵路服務有何看法？

I mean, for sure -- Daniel, thanks for the question. We are actively engaging customers on all these types of opportunities, whether it's NGLs to Mexico. We think we do have a good value proposition, working with our interline partners to get to where we need to get.

我的意思是，當然——丹尼爾，謝謝你的提問。我們正在積極地與客戶合作，爭取獲得所有這些類型的機會，無論是向墨西哥提供天然氣液體。我們認為我們確實有一個很好的價值主張，與我們的聯運合作夥伴一起實現我們需要的目標。

And I talked about some of the growth that we're working on in Mexico, whether it's the Crowley service or the rail ferry. But we're also working on developing the Falcon business. So we think we've got a good leg to stand on. And for sure, we're engaging customers on any opportunity that we can pick up, whether it's NGL or ag.

我談到了我們在墨西哥正在進行的一些發展工作，無論是克勞利服務還是鐵路渡輪。但我們也致力於發展 Falcon 業務。因此我們認為我們擁有良好的立足點。當然，我們會抓住一切機會與客戶互動，無論是 NGL 還是 ag。

I'd say on the service side for your question, it's been a seamless interchange in Chicago, both with the UP with Falcon and our partners with the FXE, and the same with the Norfolk Southern on the Lynx service. We've maintained those transit times. That's been very solid, and we look forward to continuing to grow that with them. And this new Gulfport call service is something unique. I mean that's something that's not been done in US Gulf Coast for many years. It's going to run essentially UPS schedule from the Gulfport into Chicago. So we're very, very excited about the potential of that down the road.

對於您提出的服務方面的問題，我想說，在芝加哥，無論是與 UP 鐵路的 Falcon 服務，還是與我們的合作夥伴 FXE 的換乘，以及與諾福克南方鐵路的 Lynx 服務的換乘，都是無縫的。我們一直保持這些運輸時間。這是非常穩固的，我們期待與他們繼續共同成長。這項新的格爾夫波特呼叫服務是獨一無二的。我的意思是，這是美國墨西哥灣沿岸多年來從未發生過的事情。它將基本上按照 UPS 的時間表從格爾夫波特開往芝加哥。因此，我們對未來的潛力感到非常興奮。

Ari Rosa, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里·羅莎 (Ari Rosa)。

Hi, good afternoon. So it looks like labor and benefit expense took a bit of a step up in the first quarter. Just wanted to understand that. Hopefully, you could contextualize that, especially on a per employee basis. It looks like it was a bit higher than what we were expecting. Just if you could give us some help on also how we should think about forecasting that. Thanks.

嗨，下午好。因此看起來第一季勞動力和福利支出略有增加。只是想了解這一點。希望您能夠將其具體化，特別是針對每位員工。看起來它比我們預期的要高一些。如果您能給我們一些幫助，告訴我們應該如何預測這一點。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks for the question. When you look in Q1 on average comp per employee, you're right, we're up 5% on a year-over-year basis. 2% of that is related to FX going from [$0.74 last year to $0.70] this year. And then 3.5%, call it, 3% is regular wage inflation. So that explains your 5% increase average comp on a year-over-year basis.

是的。謝謝你的提問。當您查看第一季每位員工的平均薪資時，您說得對，我們比去年同期成長了 5%。其中 2% 與外匯有關，從 [去年的 0.74 美元到今年的 0.70 美元]。然後 3.5%，稱之為 3%，是正常的薪資通膨。這解釋了為什麼您的平均薪酬年增 5%。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆梅傑斯，薩斯奎漢納。

Thanks for taking my question. Can you talk a little bit about if any opportunities from Canada direct to Mexico have emerged from some of this volatility? Certainly your competitor mentioned some of that and I wanted to hear about long-haul opportunities in that respect. Thank you.

感謝您回答我的問題。您能否談談在這種波動中，加拿大是否出現了直飛墨西哥的機會？當然，您的競爭對手提到了其中的一些，我想聽聽這方面的長期機會。謝謝。

I'll start on that one, and then I'll hand it over to Remi if he's got anything to add. We are seeing a little bit of that. I'm not sure it's as related to the tariff activity in particular, because it was things that we were working on prior to the recent quarter or four, five months. And so it is in line with what we're doing on the Falcon.

我先從這個開始，然後如果雷米還有什麼要補充的話，我會把它交給他。我們看到了一些這樣的情況。我不確定這是否與關稅活動特別相關，因為這是我們在最近一個季度或四五個月之前一直在處理的事情。這與我們在獵鷹上所做的是一致的。

We're seeing opportunities arise on things like recreational vehicles that were once on track. And so we are doing more and more of that type of business. So Remi, is there anything you want to add on that front note?

我們看到曾經走在正軌上的休閒車等領域出現了機會。因此，我們正在進行越來越多此類業務。那麼 Remi，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No.

不。

Listen, that's the final question? Okay.

聽著，這是最後一個問題？好的。

Thanks, guys. We really appreciate your time today. We are -- let me just say this as we close. We're really pleased on the quarter. This railroad is running extremely well, and we're running really tight from an efficiency perspective. Our volume growth as we are now four months in is on plan. And the strongest year-over-year growth is ahead of us through the second half. And Remi has pricing kind of at or ahead of a plan right now.

謝謝大家。我們非常感謝您今天抽出時間。我們是——在結束時我只想說這一點。我們對本季的表現非常滿意。這條鐵路運作得非常好，而且從效率的角度來看，我們的運作非常緊湊。截至目前，我們的銷售成長已達四個月，一切如計畫。下半年我們將迎來最強勁的年成長。目前，Remi 的定價已達到或超過了計劃。

And without a doubt, and while there remains some uncertainty as it relates to tariffs and economy, we continue to focus on what we can control, which is driving our plan every day. We're delivering to our customers, whether it's partnering with them as they think about adjusting to new markets or chasing the next carload.

毫無疑問，儘管關稅和經濟方面仍然存在一些不確定性，但我們仍將繼續關注我們能夠控制的事情，這正在推動我們每天的計劃。我們正在向客戶提供服務，無論是在他們考慮適應新市場時與他們合作，還是在他們考慮追逐下一批貨物時。

Our opportunity pipeline is strong and is delivering. This team is performing really, really well. And I want to thank every one of our railroaders for their commitment to our customers and to our plan. And I want to thank all of you for your time today. We look forward to seeing you soon. Thanks so much.

我們的機會管道強大且正在發揮作用。這支球隊的表現確實非常出色。我要感謝我們每一位鐵路工人對我們的客戶和我們的計劃的承諾。我感謝大家今天抽出時間。我們期待很快見到您。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。