開拓重工 (CAT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2023 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you, and please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2023 年第四季獲利電話會議。請注意，今天的會議有錄音。我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人瑞安費德勒 (Ryan Fiedler)。謝謝，請繼續。

Thanks, Abby. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's Fourth Quarter of 2023 Earnings Call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior Director of IR.

謝謝，艾比。大家早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我是瑞安費德勒 (Ryan Fiedler)，投資者關係副總裁。今天與我一起出席的有董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby；安德魯‧邦菲爾德，財務長； Kyle Epley，全球金融服務部資深副總裁；以及 IR 資深總監 Rob Rengel。

During our call, we'll be discussing the fourth quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations.

在電話會議中，我們將討論今天早些時候發布的第四季度收益報告。您可以在 Investors.caterpillar.com 的「活動和簡報」中找到我們的幻燈片、新聞稿和網路廣播回顧。

The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited.

本次通話的內容受美國及國際版權法保護。未經 Caterpillar 事先書面許可，禁止轉播、轉發、複製或散佈本內容的全部或部分內容。

Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast.

前往投影片 2。在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，這些聲明有風險和不確定性。我們還將做出一些假設，這些假設可能導致我們的實際結果與我們在本次電話會議中與您分享的資訊有所不同。請參閱我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件以及新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明提醒，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預測產生重大差異的單獨或總體因素的詳細資訊。

A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of our earnings call slides.

我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細討論了我們認為可能對我們的業務持續產生重大影響的許多因素。在今天的電話會議上，我們還將提及非 GAAP 數據。有關任何非 GAAP 數據與相應的美國 GAAP 數據的調節，請參閱我們的收益電話會議投影片的附錄。

Now let's turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.

現在讓我們將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby。

Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As we close out 2023, I'd like to start by recognizing our global team for delivering another strong quarter and the best year in our 98-year history. For the year, we delivered record sales and revenues, record adjusted profit margin, record adjusted profit per share and record ME&T free cash flow. Our results continue to reflect healthy demand across most of our end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continuing to invest for long-term profitable growth.

謝謝，瑞安。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。在 2023 年即將結束之際，我首先要表彰我們的全球團隊，他們在我們 98 年的歷史上又實現了強勁的季度和最好的一年。今年，我們實現了創紀錄的銷售額和收入、創紀錄的調整後利潤率、創紀錄的調整後每股利潤以及創紀錄的 ME&T 自由現金流。我們的業績持續反映了大多數終端市場對我們產品和服務的健康需求。我們仍然專注於執行我們的策略並繼續投資以實現長期獲利成長。

I'll begin with my perspectives about our performance in the quarter and for the full year. I'll then provide some insights about our end markets, followed by an update on our strategy and sustainability journey.

我將首先談談我對本季和全年業績的看法。然後，我將提供一些有關我們終端市場的見解，然後介紹我們的策略和永續發展之旅的最新資訊。

Moving to quarterly results. It was another strong quarter. While sales and revenues increased 3% in the fourth quarter versus a strong quarter last year, our adjusted operating profit increased by 15%. Adjusted operating profit margin improved to 18.9%, up 190 basis points versus last year. We also generated $3.2 billion of ME&T free cash flow in the quarter. Sales, adjusted operating, profit margin, adjusted profit per share and ME&T free cash flow in the fourth quarter were all better than we expected.

轉向季度業績。這是又一個強勁的季度。雖然第四季的銷售額和收入與去年的強勁季度相比成長了 3%，但我們調整後的營業利潤成長了 15%。調整後營業利益率提高至 18.9%，比去年提高 190 個基點。本季我們也產生了 32 億美元的 ME&T 自由現金流。第四季的銷售額、調整後營運、利潤率、調整後每股利潤以及 ME&T 自由現金流均優於我們的預期。

For the full year, we generated a 13% increase in total sales and revenues to $67.1 billion. Services also increased by 5% to $23 billion, a record. We generated $13.7 billion of adjusted operating profit in 2023, up 51% from 2022. Adjusted operating profit margin for the full year was 20.5%, a 510 basis-point increase over the prior year. This exceeded the top end of our target margin range for this level of sales by 80 basis points. Adjusted profit per share in 2023 was $21.21, a 53% increase over 2022.

全年，我們的總銷售額和收入成長了 13%，達到 671 億美元。服務業也成長了 5%，達到 230 億美元，創歷史新高。 2023 年，我們實現調整後營業利潤 137 億美元，比 2022 年增長 51%。全年調整後營業利潤率為 20.5%，比上年增長 510 個基點。這超出了我們針對該銷售水準的目標利潤範圍上限 80 個基點。 2023 年調整後每股獲利為 21.21 美元，比 2022 年成長 53%。

In addition, we also generated $10 billion of ME&T free cash flow, exceeding the high end of our target range by over $2 billion for the full year. This performance led to continued growth in absolute OPACC dollars, which is our internal measure of profitable growth. As a result of our strong execution and record financial performance, we are increasing our target range for adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. We are increasing the top end of our adjusted operating profit margin range by 100 basis points relative to the corresponding level of sales.

此外，我們還產生了 100 億美元的 ME&T 自由現金流，超出我們全年目標範圍的上限超過 20 億美元。這一業績導致 OPACC 絕對美元持續成長，這是我們衡量獲利成長的內部指標。由於我們強大的執行力和創紀錄的財務業績，我們正在提高調整後營業利潤率和 ME&T 自由現金流的目標範圍。我們將調整後營業利潤率範圍的上限相對於相應的銷售額水準提高 100 個基點。

Moving to ME&T free cash flow. We've generated more than $30 billion over the last 5 years, including a record $10 billion in 2023. Based on our demonstrated ability to generate strong free cash flow, we are raising our ME&T free cash flow target range to $5 billion to $10 billion, up from $4 billion to $8 billion. Andrew will provide additional details around these updated targets.

轉向 ME&T 自由現金流。過去5 年，我們創造了超過300 億美元的收入，其中到2023 年創造了創紀錄的100 億美元。基於我們所展示的產生強勁自由現金流的能力，我們將ME&T 自由現金流目標範圍提高到50 億至100 億美元，從 40 億美元增加到 80 億美元。安德魯將提供有關這些更新目標的更多詳細資訊。

Turning to Slide 4. In the fourth quarter of 2023, sales and revenues increased by 3% to $17.1 billion, driven by favorable price realization and partially offset by lower volume. Both price and volume were slightly better than we expected. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, overall sales to users increased 8%, slightly better than our expectations.

轉向幻燈片 4。2023 年第四季度，銷售額和收入增長了 3%，達到 171 億美元，這得益於有利的價格實現，但部分被銷量下降所抵消。價格和成交量均略優於我們的預期。與 2022 年第四季相比，整體向用戶的銷售額成長了 8%，略好於我們的預期。

Energy & Transportation sales to users increased 20%. For machines, which includes Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users rose by 3%. Sales to users in Construction Industries were up 4%. North American sales to users increased as demand remained healthy for nonresidential and residential construction. Nonresidential continued to benefit from government-related infrastructure and construction projects. Residential sales to users in North America also increased in the quarter. Sales to users in EAME and Latin America were down slightly relative to a strong comparative. In Asia Pacific, sales to users declined in the quarter.

能源與交通向用戶的銷售額成長了 20%。對於包括建築業和資源行業在內的機器，用戶銷售額成長了 3%。建築業用戶銷售額成長 4%。由於非住宅和住宅建築的需求保持健康，北美對用戶的銷售量增加。非住宅繼續受益於政府相關的基礎設施和建設項目。本季北美用戶的住宅銷售也有所成長。與強勁的對比相比，對 EAME 和拉丁美洲用戶的銷售額略有下降。在亞太地區，本季用戶銷售額有所下降。

In Resource Industries, sales to users increased 1%. In mining, sales to users also increased. And in heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, sales to users declined against a strong comparative in 2022. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 20%. Oil and gas sales to users benefited from strong sales of turbines and turbine-related services. We also saw continued strength in sales of reciprocating engines into gas compression and well-servicing oil and gas applications, including the Tier 4 dynamic gas blending engines used in well-servicing fleets.

在資源產業，用戶銷售額成長了 1%。在採礦業，對用戶的銷售也有所增加。在重型建築、採石場和骨材領域，與 2022 年相比，對使用者的銷售額有所下降。在能源和運輸領域，對使用者的銷售額成長了 20%。對用戶的石油和天然氣銷售受益於渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務的強勁銷售。我們也看到氣體壓縮和油井維修石油和天然氣應用領域的往復式引擎的銷售持續強勁，包括用於油井維修車隊的 Tier 4 動態氣體混合引擎。

Power generation sales to users increased -- excuse me, power generation sales to users continued to remain positive due to favorable market conditions, including strong data center growth. Transportation sales to users also increased, while industrial declined from historically strong levels in 2022. Dealer inventory decreased by $900 million versus the third quarter. Machines declined by $1.4 billion, slightly more than we expected. We saw the largest decline in Construction Industries, as dealer inventory decreased across all regions. The largest decline was in excavators.

對用戶的發電銷售量有所增加——對不起，由於有利的市場條件，包括資料中心的強勁增長，對用戶的發電銷售量繼續保持正值。 2022 年，對用戶的運輸銷售額也有所增加，而工業銷售額則從歷史強勁水平下降。經銷商庫存較第三季減少了 9 億美元。機器下降了 14 億美元，略高於我們的預期。我們看到建築業的跌幅最大，因為所有地區的經銷商庫存都在下降。降幅最大的是挖土機。

We remain comfortable with the total level of machine dealer inventory, which is within the typical range. Adjusted operating profit margin increased to 18.9% in the fourth quarter, a 190-basis-point increase over last year. Adjusted operating profit margin was slightly better than we had anticipated. Relative to our margin expectations, we saw higher price realization and higher sales volume, both marginally better than expected.

我們對機器經銷商庫存的整體水準保持滿意，該水準在典型範圍內。第四季調整後營業利益率增至18.9%，較去年同期成長190個基點。調整後營業利益率略優於我們的預期。相對於我們的利潤預期，我們看到更高的價格實現和更高的銷量，兩者都略好於預期。

Turning to Slide 5. I'll now provide full year highlights. In 2023, we generated sales and revenues of $67.1 billion, up 13% versus last year. This was due to favorable price and higher sales volume, driven primarily by higher sales of equipment to end users. As I mentioned, we generated $23 billion of services revenue in 2023, a 5% increase over 2022.

轉向幻燈片 5。我現在將提供全年亮點。 2023 年，我們的銷售額和收入達到 671 億美元，比去年成長 13%。這是由於優惠的價格和較高的銷量，主要是由於向最終用戶的設備銷售增加所致。正如我所提到的，我們在 2023 年創造了 230 億美元的服務收入，比 2022 年成長 5%。

We continue to see improvement of customer value agreements with new equipment, which remains an important part of our services growth initiatives. We saw strong e-commerce sales growth as we continue to enhance our digital tools to make it easier for customers to identify and purchase the right parts. We added more than 100,000 new customers to our online channel. We also exceeded the e-commerce goal we shared at our May 2022 Investor Day.

我們繼續看到新設備的客戶價值協議得到改善，這仍然是我們服務成長計畫的重要組成部分。隨著我們不斷增強數位工具，使客戶更容易識別和購買正確的零件，我們看到了電子商務銷售的強勁成長。我們的線上管道新增了超過 10 萬名客戶。我們也超額完成了 2022 年 5 月投資者日分享的電子商務目標。

By combining the data from more than 1.5 million connected assets with our engineering expertise, advanced analytics and AI, we are helping customers avoid unplanned downtime through intelligent leads, which we call prioritized service events, or PSEs. We continue to execute our various service initiatives as we strive to achieve our 2026 target of $28 billion. Our full year adjusted operating profit margin was 20.5%, a 510-basis-point increase over 2022.

透過將超過 150 萬個互聯資產的數據與我們的工程專業知識、高級分析和人工智慧相結合，我們正在透過智慧線索（我們稱之為優先服務事件或 PSE）幫助客戶避免計劃外停機。我們繼續執行各種服務計劃，努力實現 2026 年 280 億美元的目標。我們全年調整後營業利益率為 20.5%，比 2022 年成長 510 個基點。

Moving to Slide 6. We generated strong ME&T free cash flow of $10 billion in 2023, a $3.7 billion or 58% increase over our previous record. We returned a record $7.5 billion to shareholders through repurchase stock and dividends. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases.

轉向幻燈片 6。我們在 2023 年創造了 100 億美元的強勁 ME&T 自由現金流，比之前的記錄增加了 37 億美元，即 58%。我們透過回購股票和股利向股東返還創紀錄的 75 億美元。我們仍然為自己的股息貴族地位感到自豪，並繼續期望隨著時間的推移，透過股息和股票回購將大部分 ME&T 自由現金流返還給股東。

Now on Slide 7, I'll describe our expectations moving forward. Overall demand remains healthy across most of our end markets for our products and services. We ended 2023 with a backlog of $27.5 billion, which remains elevated as a percentage of revenues compared to historical levels. We currently anticipate 2024 sales and revenues to be broadly similar to the record 2023 level. We expect continued strength in end user demand, including services growth and a slight benefit from carryover pricing, offset by a dealer inventory headwind, which was a $2.1 billion benefit in 2023. We currently do not anticipate a significant change in dealer inventory of machines in 2024 as compared to an increase in 2023.

現在，在投影片 7 上，我將描述我們未來的期望。我們的大多數終端市場對我們產品和服務的整體需求保持健康。截至 2023 年，我們的積壓金額為 275 億美元，與歷史水準相比，佔收入的百分比仍然較高。我們目前預計 2024 年的銷售額和收入將與 2023 年創紀錄的水平大致相似。我們預計最終用戶需求將持續強勁，包括服務成長和結轉定價帶來的小幅收益，但會被經銷商庫存逆風所抵消，2023 年將帶來21 億美元的收益。目前，我們預計經銷商的機器庫存不會發生重大變化。2024 年 與 2023 年相比有所增加。

Now I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets, starting with Construction Industries. In North America, after a very strong 2023, we expect the region to remain healthy in 2024. We expect nonresidential construction to remain at similar demand levels due to government-related infrastructure investments. Residential construction is expected to remain healthy relative to historical levels.

現在我將討論我們對主要終端市場的前景，從建築業開始。在北美，經過 2023 年的強勁成長後，我們預計該地區將在 2024 年保持健康。由於政府相關的基礎設施投資，我們預計非住宅建築將維持類似的需求水準。住宅建設預計將相對於歷史水準保持健康。

In Asia Pacific, excluding China, we are seeing some softening in economic conditions. We anticipate China will remain at a relatively low level for the above 10-ton excavator industry. In the EAME, we anticipate the region will be slightly down due to economic uncertainty in Europe, somewhat offset by continuing strong construction demand in the Middle East. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to increase due to easing financial conditions. In addition, we also anticipate the ongoing benefit of our services initiatives will positively impact Construction Industries in 2024.

在亞太地區（不包括中國），我們看到經濟狀況疲軟。我們預計中國10噸級以上挖土機產業仍將維持在較低水準。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們預計由於歐洲經濟的不確定性，該地區的經濟將略有下降，但中東地區持續強勁的建築需求在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。由於金融狀況寬鬆，拉丁美洲的建築活動預計將增加。此外，我們也預期我們的服務計畫的持續效益將在 2024 年對建築業產生正面影響。

Next, I'll discuss Resource Industries. After strong performance in 2023 in mining, heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we anticipate lower machine volume versus last year, primarily due to off-highway and articulated trucks. In addition, we anticipate a small decrease in dealer inventory during 2024 versus a slight increase in dealer inventory last year. While we continue to see a high level of quoting activity overall, we anticipate lower order rates as customers display capital discipline. We expect to see higher services revenues, including robust rebuild activity.

接下來，我將討論資源產業。 2023 年採礦、重型建築、採石場和骨材領域表現強勁後，我們預計機器數量將低於去年，這主要是由於非公路和鉸接式卡車的影響。此外，我們預計 2024 年經銷商庫存將小幅下降，而去年經銷商庫存將小幅增加。雖然我們繼續看到整體報價活動處於高水平，但我們預計，隨著客戶表現出資本紀律，訂單率將會下降。我們預計服務收入將會增加，包括強勁的重建活動。

Customer product utilization remains high, the new park truck remains low, the age of the fleet remains elevated and our autonomous solutions continue to see strong customer acceptance. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for long-term profitable growth.

客戶產品利用率仍然很高，新的停車卡車仍然很低，車隊的車齡仍然很高，我們的自動駕駛解決方案繼續得到客戶的強烈認可。我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，能源轉型將支持大宗商品需求的增加，擴大我們的潛在市場總量，並為長期獲利成長提供更多機會。

Moving to Energy & Transportation. In oil and gas, we expect reciprocating engines and services to increase slightly after a strong 2023. As we said during the last 2 quarters, well servicing in North America is showing some short-term moderation. Gas compression order backlog remains healthy. And overall, we continue to remain optimistic about future demand.

轉向能源和交通。在石油和天然氣領域，我們預計往復式引擎和服務在 2023 年的強勁表現之後將略有增長。正如我們在過去兩個季度中所說，北美的油井服務顯示出短期的放緩。天然氣壓縮訂單積壓保持健康。整體而言，我們對未來的需求持續保持樂觀。

CAT reciprocating engine demand for power generation is expected to remain strong due to continued data center growth. Solar turbines has a strong backlog and continues to experience robust quoting activity. As we said in the last quarter, industrial demand is expected to soften in the near term from a strong 2023. In transportation, we anticipate high-speed marine to increase slightly as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets.

由於資料中心的持續成長，CAT 往復式引擎的發電需求預計將保持強勁。太陽能渦輪機有大量積壓訂單，報價活動持續強勁。正如我們在上個季度所說，工業需求預計將在 2023 年強勁的基礎上出現疲軟。在運輸方面，隨著客戶繼續升級老化船隊，我們預計高速海運將略有成長。

Moving to Slide 8. Now I'll provide an update on our strategy and sustainability journey. Over the past year, we have discussed constraints for our large engines, given the robust demand in power generation for data centers and in oil and gas. We believe that our total addressable market is expanding due to the secular growth trend for data centers relating to cloud computing and generative AI. We also expect the energy transition to create opportunities for distributed generation.

轉到幻燈片 8。現在我將提供有關我們的策略和永續發展之旅的最新資訊。在過去的一年裡，鑑於資料中心以及石油和天然氣發電的強勁需求，我們討論了大型引擎的限制。我們相信，由於與雲端運算和產生人工智慧相關的資料中心的長期成長趨勢，我們的總潛在市場正在擴大。我們也預計能源轉型將為分散式發電創造機會。

As more renewables are added to the grid, our reciprocating engine and gas turbine generator sets can help provide grid stability. We are making a large multiyear capital investment in our large engine division, including increasing capacity for both new engines and aftermarket parts. This will help us satisfy growing customer demand and contribute to future absolute OPACC dollar growth, which we believe has the highest correlation to total shareholder return over time.

隨著越來越多的再生能源被添加到電網中，我們的往復式引擎和燃氣渦輪發電機組可以幫助提供電網穩定性。我們正在對大型引擎部門進行大量的多年資本投資，包括增加新引擎和售後零件的產能。這將有助於我們滿足不斷增長的客戶需求，並有助於未來 OPACC 美元的絕對增長，我們認為隨著時間的推移，這與股東總回報具有最高的相關性。

We continued to advance our sustainability journey in 2023. I'll highlight some recent announcements demonstrating our commitment to a reduced carbon future. Caterpillar had a goal that 100% of new products will be more sustainable than the previous generation, including by lowering fuel consumption and thus, corresponding emissions.

2023 年，我們繼續推動永續發展之旅。我將重點介紹一些最近發布的公告，這些公告表明了我們對減少碳未來的承諾。 Caterpillar 的目標是 100% 的新產品比上一代產品更具永續性，包括降低燃料消耗和相應的排放。

One recent example is our 420 XE Backhoe Loader with the CAT 3.6 engine. Through internal testing in a typical mix of applications, it consumed up to 10% less fuel and produced up to 10% less tail pipe emissions than the previous model. Earlier this year, we announced the success of our collaboration with Microsoft and Ballard Power Systems to demonstrate the viability of using large-format hydrogen fuel cells to supply reliable and sustainable backup power for data centers.

最近的一個例子是我們配備 CAT 3.6 引擎的 420 XE 反鏟裝載機。透過典型應用組合的內部測試，與之前的型號相比，它的燃油消耗量減少了 10%，廢氣排放量減少了 10%。今年早些時候，我們宣布與微軟和巴拉德電力系統公司成功合作，展示了使用大型氫燃料電池為資料中心提供可靠且可持續的備用電源的可行性。

The demonstration validated the hydrogen fuel cell power systems performance in more than 6,000 feet above sea level and in below freezing conditions. Caterpillar led the project, providing the overall system integration, power electronics and microgrid controls that form the central structure of the hydrogen power solution. These examples reinforce our ongoing sustainability leadership.

該演示驗證了氫燃料電池電力系統在海拔 6,000 英尺以上和冰點以下條件下的性能。 Caterpillar 領導了該項目，提供整體系統整合、電力電子和微電網控制，構成氫能解決方案的核心結構。這些例子強化了我們持續的永續發展領導。

With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

這樣，我就把它交給安德魯。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with commentary on the fourth quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I'll discuss the balance sheet and cash flow, followed by an update to our target ranges for adjusted operating profit margins and ME&T free cash flow. I'll conclude with our high-level assumptions for 2024 and our expectations for the first quarter.

謝謝吉姆，大家早安。我將首先評論第四季度的業績，包括我們各部門的業績。然後我將討論資產負債表和現金流，然後更新調整後營業利潤率和 ME&T 自由現金流的目標範圍。最後，我將提出我們對 ​​2024 年的高層假設和對第一季的預期。

Beginning on Slide 9. Strong operating performance continued in the fourth quarter as sales and revenues, adjusted operating profit margin, adjusted profit per share and ME&T free cash flow were all better than we had expected. In summary, sales and revenues increased by 3% to $17.1 billion. Adjusted operating profit increased by 15% to $3.2 billion. The adjusted operating profit margin was 18.9%, an increase of 190 basis points versus the prior year.

從幻燈片 9 開始。第四季繼續保持強勁的經營業績，銷售和收入、調整後的營業利潤率、調整後的每股利潤以及 ME&T 自由現金流都好於我們的預期。總而言之，銷售額和收入成長了 3%，達到 171 億美元。調整後營業利潤成長 15%，達到 32 億美元。調整後營業利益率為18.9%，較上年增加190個基點。

Profit per share was $5.28 in the fourth quarter compared to $2.79 in the fourth quarter of last year. Profit per share in the quarter included favorable mark-to-market gains of $0.14 for the remeasurement of pension and OPEB plans and certain favorable deferred tax valuation adjustments of $0.04. It also included restructuring costs of $92 million or $0.13.

第四季每股利潤為 5.28 美元，去年第四季為 2.79 美元。本季的每股利潤包括因重新計量退休金和 OPEB 計劃而帶來的 0.14 美元的按市價計價的有利收益以及 0.04 美元的某些有利的遞延稅估值調整。它還包括 9,200 萬美元或 0.13 美元的重組成本。

Adjusted profit per share increased by 35% to $5.23 in the fourth quarter compared to $3.86 last year. The provision for income taxes in the fourth quarter, excluding the amounts related to mark-to-market and discrete items, reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 21.4%. This was lower than we had expected a quarter ago due to favorable changes in the geographic mix of profits. The lower rate benefited performance in the quarter by about $0.24.

第四季調整後每股獲利成長 35%，達到 5.23 美元，去年同期為 3.86 美元。第四季的所得稅撥備（不包括與按市值計價和離散項目相關的金額）反映了 21.4% 的全球年有效稅率。由於利潤地域結構的有利變化，這一數字低於我們一個季度前的預期。較低的利率使本季的業績受益約 0.24 美元。

Moving on to Slide 10. I'll discuss top line results in the fourth quarter. The 3% sales increase versus the prior year was primarily driven by price realization, partially offset by lower volume as impacts from dealer inventory changes more than offset the 8% increase in sales to users. Both price and volume was slightly better than we had anticipated.

繼續看投影片 10。我將討論第四季的營收結果。與前一年相比，銷售額增長 3%，主要是由價格實現推動的，但部分被銷量下降所抵消，因為經銷商庫存變化的影響遠遠抵消了用戶銷售額 8% 的增長。價格和數量都略好於我們的預期。

The dealer inventory change resulted in an unfavorable sales impact of $1.6 billion versus the prior year. Dealer inventory decreased in the fourth quarter by $900 million overall compared to an increase of approximately $700 million during the fourth quarter of 2022. The dealer inventory decrease in the fourth quarter was led by Construction Industries, where the reduction was at the high end of our expectations.

與前一年相比，經銷商庫存變化對銷售額造成了 16 億美元的不利影響。第四季經銷商庫存總體減少了9 億美元，而2022 年第四季經銷商庫存增加了約7 億美元。第四季經銷商庫存減少主要由建築業帶動，該行業的庫存減少幅度處於我們的最高水準。期望。

The decrease in this segment was led by excavators and the impact of the CAT engine changeover in building construction products that we have mentioned in previous earnings calls. Dealers also reduced their inventories in resource industries. Overall, the decrease in dealer inventory of machines was $1.4 billion in the quarter. Conversely, dealer inventory in Energy & Transportation increase mostly due to extended commissioning time lines, resulting from strong shipments, which was supported by healthy demand. As a reminder, dealer inventory in both Energy & Transportation and Resource Industries is mainly a function of the commissioning pipeline, and over 70% of dealer inventory in these segments is backed by firm customer orders.

該細分市場的下降是由挖掘機以及我們在先前的財報電話會議中提到的建築產品中 CAT 發動機更換的影響帶動的。經銷商也減少了資源產業的庫存。總體而言，本季經銷商機器庫存減少了 14 億美元。相反，能源和運輸領域的經銷商庫存增加主要是由於在健康需求的支撐下強勁的出貨量導致調試時間延長。需要提醒的是，能源與運輸和資源產業的經銷商庫存主要取決於調試管道，這些領域超過 70% 的經銷商庫存由確定的客戶訂單支援。

Looking at sales by segment, sales in Construction Industries and Energy transportation was slightly higher than we had anticipated while Sales and Resource industries were about in line with our expectations. Moving to operating profit on Slide 11. Adjusted operating profit increased by 15% to $3.2 billion. Price realization and favorable manufacturing costs benefited the quarter, while higher SG&A and R&D expenses and lower sales volumes actually has a partial offset. The increase in SG&A and R&D expenses was primarily driven by higher short-term incentive compensation expense and strategic investment spend. The adjusted operating profit margin of 18.9% improved by 190 basis points versus the prior year. Margins were slightly higher than we had anticipated on volumes and price being marginally better than we had expected.

以細分市場來看，建築業和能源運輸業的銷售額略高於我們的預期，而銷售和資源行業的銷售額與我們的預期基本一致。轉到投影片 11 的營業利潤。調整後的營業利潤成長 15%，達到 32 億美元。價格實現和有利的製造成本使本季度受益，而銷售、行政管理和研發費用的增加以及銷售的下降實際上部分抵消了影響。 SG&A 和研發費用的增加主要是由於短期激勵薪酬費用和策略性投資支出的增加。調整後營業利益率為 18.9%，較前一年提高 190 個基點。利潤率略高於我們的預期，銷售量和價格略優於我們的預期。

Now on Slide 12. Construction Industry sales decreased by 5% in the fourth quarter to $6.5 billion due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. Lower sales volume was primarily due to the changes in dealer inventories that I mentioned earlier and more than offset the favorable sales to users. The dealer inventory changes impacted all of the regions.

現在請參閱投影片 12。由於銷售量下降，第四季建築業銷售額下降了 5%，至 65 億美元，但部分被有利的價格實現所抵消。銷售下降主要是由於我之前提到的經銷商庫存的變化，這遠遠抵消了對用戶的有利銷售。經銷商庫存變化影響了所有地區。

By region, sales in North America increased by 4%. In Latin America, sales decreased by 25%. Sales in EAME increased -- decreased by 18%. This region accounted for the largest dealer inventory decline in the quarter. In Asia Pacific, sales decreased by 4%.

按地區劃分，北美地區的銷售額成長了 4%。在拉丁美洲，銷售額下降了 25%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額有所成長，但下降了 18%。該地區是本季經銷商庫存降幅最大的地區。在亞太地區，銷售額下降了 4%。

Fourth quarter profit for Construction Industries was $1.5 billion, an increase by 3% versus the prior year. The increase was primarily due to favorable price, partially offset by the profit impact from lower sales volume. The segment's operating margin of 23.5% was an increase of 180 basis points versus last year. This is broadly in line with our expectations.

建築業第四季獲利 15 億美元，比上年成長 3%。這一增長主要是由於價格優惠，但部分被銷售下降帶來的利潤影響所抵消。該部門的營業利潤率為 23.5%，比去年增加了 180 個基點。這與我們的預期基本一致。

Turning to Slide 13. Resource Industries sales decreased by 6% in the fourth quarter to $3.2 billion. The decrease was primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. Lower volume was impacted by changes in dealer inventories as dealers decreased inventories during the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to an increase in the prior year's quarter.

轉向投影片 13。資源產業第四季銷售額下降 6%，至 32 億美元。下降的主要原因是銷量下降，但部分被有利的價格實現所抵消。銷售下降是受到經銷商庫存變化的影響，因為與去年同期相比，經銷商在 2023 年第四季減少了庫存。

Volume was also impacted by slightly lower aftermarket part sales volume, partly due to dealer buying patterns. Fourth quarter profit for Resource Industries decreased by 1% versus the prior year to $600 million. The segment's operating margin of 18.5% was an increase of 90 basis points versus last year and was in line with our expectations.

銷售量也受到售後零件銷售略有下降的影響，部分原因是經銷商的購買模式。資源產業第四季獲利較前一年下降 1%，至 6 億美元。該部門的營業利潤率為 18.5%，比去年增加了 90 個基點，符合我們的預期。

Now on Slide 14. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 12% in the fourth quarter to $7.7 billion. The increase was primarily due to higher sales volume and favorable price realization. Sales volume benefited from higher shipments of large engines and solar turbines and turbine-related services in the quarter. By application, oil and gas sales increased by 23%, power generation sales were higher by 29%, industrial sales decreased by 5% and transportation sales increased by 11%. While industrial sales decreased, they remain at healthy levels.

現在請參閱投影片 14。第四季能源與運輸銷售額成長 12%，達到 77 億美元。這一增長主要是由於銷量增加和有利的價格實現。銷售量受益於本季大型引擎和太陽能渦輪機以及渦輪機相關服務的出貨量增加。按應用分，石油和天然氣銷售額成長23%，發電銷售額成長29%，工業銷售額下降5%，交通運輸銷售額成長11%。儘管工業銷售下降，但仍保持在健康水準。

Fourth quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 21% versus the prior year to $1.4 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price and higher sales volume, partially offset by higher SG&A and R&D expenses, currency impacts and unfavorable manufacturing costs. The increase in SG&A and R&D expenses reflected ramping investments related to strategic growth initiatives and higher short-term incentive compensation expense.

能源與交通第四季獲利較上年同期成長 21%，達到 14 億美元。這一增長主要是由於有利的價格和較高的銷量，但部分被較高的銷售、行政管理和研發費用、貨幣影響和不利的製造成本所抵消。 SG&A 和研發費用的增加反映了與策略性成長計畫相關的投資增加以及短期激勵性薪酬費用的增加。

As a reminder, most of our strategic investments relating to electrification and alternative fuels are in Energy & Transportation, which therefore, impacts this segment's margin. The operating margin of 18.6% was an increase of 130 basis points versus the prior year. Margin exceeded our expectations on higher volume, including favorable mix and price.

提醒一下，我們與電氣化和替代燃料相關的大部分策略性投資都集中在能源和交通領域，因此影響了該部門的利潤率。營業利益率為 18.6%，較上年增加 130 個基點。由於銷量增加，包括有利的組合和價格，利潤率超出了我們的預期。

Moving to Slide 15. Financial Products revenues increased by 15% to $981 million, primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions and higher average earning assets in North America. Segment profit increased by 24% to $234 million. The increase was mainly due to a lower provision for credit losses at Cat Financial, higher average earning assets and a higher net yield on average earning assets.

轉到投影片 15。金融產品收入成長 15%，達到 9.81 億美元，這主要是由於所有地區平均融資率較高以及北美平均獲利資產較高。部門利潤成長 24%，達到 2.34 億美元。這一增長主要是由於 Cat Financial 的信用損失撥備減少、平均生息資產增加以及平均生息資產淨收益率上升。

Our portfolio continues to perform well with past dues in historic levels of 1.79%. We saw a 10-basis-point improvement compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and a 17-basis-point improvement compared to the third quarter. This is the lowest fourth quarter past dues percentage since 2006.

我們的投資組合持續表現良好，逾期費用達到 1.79% 的歷史水準。與 2022 年第四季相比，我們看到了 10 個基點的改善，與第三季相比，我們看到了 17 個基點的改善。這是自 2006 年以來第四季逾期未付款比例最低的一次。

The year-end allowance rate was our lowest fourth quarter rate on record of 1.18% and was the second lowest quarterly rate ever. In addition, provision expense in 2023 was at the lowest level we've seen in over 20 years. Business activity remains strong, as retail new business volume increased versus the prior year and the third quarter. The increase versus the prior year reflected higher end user sales and rental conversions in the US.

年終津貼率是我們有史以來最低的第四季利率，為 1.18%，也是有史以來第二低的季度利率。此外，2023 年的撥備支出處於 20 多年來的最低水準。商業活動依然強勁，零售新業務量較去年和第三季增加。與前一年相比的成長反映了美國終端用戶銷售額和租賃轉換率的提高。

In addition, we continue to see strong demand for used equipment. Though used inventories have ticked up slightly, they remain close to historically low levels. Despite some moderation in used pricing on improved availability, it is still comfortably above historic norms.

此外，我們繼續看到對二手設備的強勁需求。儘管二手庫存略有上升，但仍接近歷史低點。儘管由於可用性的提高，二手價格有所調整，但它仍然遠高於歷史正常水平。

Moving on to Slide 16. The record $10 billion in ME&T free cash flow for the year included $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of $200 million versus the prior year. On CapEx, we continue to make disciplined investments that are right for our business, governed by our focus on growing absolute OPACC dollars. We spent about $1.7 billion in 2023.

繼續看投影片 16。今年 ME&T 自由現金流達到創紀錄的 100 億美元，其中第四季為 32 億美元，比前一年增加了 2 億美元。在資本支出方面，我們繼續進行適合我們業務的嚴格投資，並以增加絕對 OPACC 美元為重點。 2023 年我們花了約 17 億美元。

Looking to 2024, we expect CapEx in the range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion. This is higher than our recent run rate and includes the investment in large engine capacity, which Jim referenced a moment ago. We also plan to invest more around ACE, which is autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity and digital and electrification. In addition, we are investing to make our supply chain more resilient.

展望 2024 年，我們預期資本支出在 20 億至 25 億美元之間。這高於我們最近的運行率，並包括吉姆剛才提到的大型引擎容量的投資。我們還計劃圍繞 ACE 進行更多投資，即自主性、替代燃料、互聯性以及數位化和電氣化。此外，我們正在投資以使我們的供應鏈更具彈性。

Moving to capital deployment. We returned $3.4 billion to shareholders in the fourth quarter, including $2.8 billion in share repurchases. Our net share count has decreased by approximately 14% since 2019, when we shared our intention to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time and on a consistent basis.

轉向資本部署。第四季我們向股東返還 34 億美元，其中包括 28 億美元的股票回購。自 2019 年以來，我們的淨股數量減少了約 14%，當時我們表示打算隨著時間的推移、持續地將所有 ME&T 自由現金流返還給股東。

Our dividend remains a priority as we increased our quarterly payout by 8% in 2023. You will recall from our Investor Day in 2022, we shared that we expected to increase our dividend by at least high single digits for the next 3 years. The increase in 2023 reflected the second of those 3 years. Our balance sheet remains strong. We have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $7 billion, and we hold an additional $3.8 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash.

我們的股息仍然是優先事項，因為我們在2023 年將季度派息增加了8%。您還記得在2022 年的投資者日上，我們表示，我們預計在未來3 年將股息至少增加高個位數。 2023 年的成長是這三年中的第二年。我們的資產負債表仍然強勁。我們擁有充足的流動性，企業現金餘額為 70 億美元，另外還持有 38 億美元的期限稍長的流動性有價證券，以提高現金收益率。

Now on Slide 17, I'll discuss our revised adjusted operating profit margin targets. We exceeded our progressive target range in 2023, and we are confident that our strong execution and operating performance supports the potential for higher top end adjusted operating profit margins than were reflected in the prior range. Therefore, we have increased the top end of the range by 100 basis points relative to the corresponding level of sales.

現在，在投影片 17 上，我將討論我們修訂後的調整後營業利潤率目標。我們在 2023 年超越了我們的漸進目標範圍，我們相信，我們強大的執行力和經營業績有可能實現比先前範圍所反映的更高的高端調整後營業利潤率。因此，我們將範圍的上限相對於相應的銷售水準提高了 100 個基點。

Achieving the top end of the range will remain challenging, as we are committed to increase investments in our strategic initiatives supporting long-term profitable growth. The bottom end of the target range remains unchanged. To explain, while higher gross margin support increasing the top end of the range, that actually pressure our margins in periods of decreasing volume. For that reason, we believe that the bottom end of the range remains challenging, but achievable.

實現該範圍的高端仍然具有挑戰性，因為我們致力於增加對支持長期獲利成長的策略性舉措的投資。目標區間的下限維持不變。解釋一下，雖然較高的毛利率支持增加該範圍的上限，但這實際上在銷量下降的時期給我們的利潤帶來了壓力。因此，我們認為該範圍的下限仍然具有挑戰性，但可以實現。

We will now target adjusted operating profit margins of 10% to 14% at $42 billion of sales and revenues, increasing to 18% to 22% at $72 billion of sales and revenues.

現在，我們的目標是在銷售額和收入為420 億美元時調整後營業利潤率為10% 至14%，在銷售額和收入為720 億美元時將調整後營業利潤率提高至18% 至22 %。

Now on Slide 18. When I joined Caterpillar just over 5 years ago, I was impressed with the potential of our business to deliver higher, more consistent ME&T free cash flow as a result of the operating and execution model and our focus on generating absolute OPACC dollars. This is how we define winning at Caterpillar.

現在看幻燈片18。當我5 年前加入Caterpillar 時，我對我們的業務潛力印象深刻，因為我們的營運和執行模式以及我們對產生絕對OPACC 的關注，我們能夠提供更高、更一致的ME&T自由現金流美元。這就是我們在 Caterpillar 定義勝利的方式。

We believe increasing absolute OPACC dollars will lead to higher shareholder returns over time. Since the beginning of 2019, we have generated $30 billion in ME&T free cash flow, including a record $10 billion in 2023. We are confident in our ability to consistently generate positive ME&T free cash flow over time. Therefore, we are introducing an updated target range for ME&T free cash flow, which is between $5 billion and $10 billion. Our strong operating performance as well as confidence in our future execution supports the higher range.

我們相信，隨著時間的推移，增加絕對 OPACC 美元將帶來更高的股東回報。自 2019 年初以來，我們已產生 300 億美元的 ME&T 自由現金流，其中 2023 年將達到創紀錄的 100 億美元。我們對長期持續產生正的 ME&T 自由現金流充滿信心。因此，我們引入了 ME&T 自由現金流的更新目標範圍，即 50 億至 100 億美元之間。我們強勁的經營業績以及對未來執行的信心支持了更高的範圍。

The updated target range still maintains our flexibility to invest in our strategic initiatives, which is a priority. We also continue to expect to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases.

更新後的目標範圍仍然保持了我們投資策略舉措的靈活性，這是我們的首要任務。我們也繼續期望隨著時間的推移，透過股利和股票回購，將大部分 ME&T 自由現金流返還給股東。

Moving to Slide 19. I will share our high-level assumptions for the full year. As Jim mentioned, in 2024, we anticipate sales and revenues will be broadly similar to 2023. We expect slightly favorable price realization and continued healthy underlying demand across the business as a whole. We anticipate another year of services growth as we continue to target $28 billion by 2026.

轉到投影片 19。我將分享我們對全年的高層假設。正如吉姆所提到的，我們預計 2024 年的銷售額和收入將與 2023 年大致相似。我們預計整個業務的價格實現會略為有利，並且潛在需求將持續健康。我們預計服務業將迎來另一個成長年，我們繼續目標是到 2026 年達到 280 億美元。

We do not expect a significant change in dealer inventory for machines by the end of this year. And for Energy & Transportation, it is difficult to predict with certainty what will happen to dealer inventory as we have discussed previously. In total, dealer inventory increased by $2.1 billion in 2023.

我們預計到今年底經銷商的機器庫存不會有重大變化。對於能源和運輸業來說，正如我們之前討論的那樣，很難確定經銷商庫存會發生什麼變化。 2023 年，經銷商庫存總計增加了 21 億美元。

By segment, in Construction Industries, sales for equipment to end users should remain roughly similar compared to the strong year we saw in 2023. However, we do not expect a dealer inventory build as we saw last year. We also anticipate our services initiatives will benefit the segment in 2024.

以細分市場來看，在建築業，與 2023 年的強勁表現相比，向最終用戶的設備銷售應大致保持相似。但是，我們預計經銷商庫存不會像去年那樣增加。我們也預計我們的服務計劃將在 2024 年使該細分市場受益。

In Resource Industries, we anticipate lower sales versus 2023, impacted by lower machine volume primarily in off-highway and articulated trucks. We had strong sales of these products in 2023 as we converted our elevated backlog into sales, making for a challenging comparison. We also anticipate an unfavorable year-over-year change in dealer inventories. However, we expect services revenues will increase in this segment.

在資源產業，我們預計銷售額將低於 2023 年，原因是主要是非公路和鉸接式卡車的機器數量減少。由於我們將增加的積壓訂單轉化為銷售額，因此我們在 2023 年實現了這些產品的強勁銷售，這使得比較具有挑戰性。我們也預期經銷商庫存將出現不利的同比變化。然而，我們預計該領域的服務收入將會增加。

In Energy & Transportation, we expect slightly higher sales in 2024. Power generation, oil and gas and transportation sales should be positive, while industrial sales are expected to be lower compared to our historically strong levels in 2023. On full year adjusted operating profit margin, we currently expect to be in the top half of the updated margin target range at our expected sales levels.

在能源和運輸領域，我們預計2024 年銷售額將略有增長。發電、石油和天然氣以及運輸銷售額應為正數，而工業銷售額預計將低於2023 年我們的歷史強勁水平。關於全年調整後營業利潤率，我們目前預計在我們的預期銷售水準上將處於更新後的利潤目標範圍的上半部分。

I'll discuss some of the puts and takes. In 2024, we expect a small pricing benefit weighted towards the first half of the year given carryover from increases taken in the second half of 2023. For the full year, we expect price to modestly exceed manufacturing costs. Versus last year, price in absolute dollar terms should moderate as we let the more favorable pricing trends from 2023.

我將討論一些投入和產出。考慮到 2023 年下半年成長的結轉，我們預計 2024 年上半年會出現小幅定價優勢。對於全年，我們預計價格將小幅超過製造成本。與去年相比，以絕對美元計算的價格應該會有所放緩，因為我們從 2023 年開始將出現更有利的定價趨勢。

Short-term incentive compensation expense was about $1.7 billion in 2023, while we anticipate $1.2 billion in 2024. We expect the benefit of that low expense will be offset by increases in SG&A and R&D expenses as we continue to invest in strategic initiatives and of future long-term profitable growth. Investments are focused in services, new product introductions and ACE. We also anticipate there may be some negative margin impact due to mix this year.

2023 年短期激勵薪酬費用約為17 億美元，而我們預計2024 年將達到12 億美元。隨著我們繼續投資於戰略舉措和未來，我們預計這一低費用的好處將被SG&A 和研發費用的增加所抵消。長期獲利成長。投資主要集中在服務、新產品推出和 ACE 方面。我們也預計，今年的混合可能會對利潤率產生一些負面影響。

I'll explain. During 2023, when availability was somewhat challenged, we biased our production and shipments to products with the highest OPACC potential. Given that availability has improved, we anticipate a more normalized mix of products in 2024. We may also see an impact on margins from the mix of different segments as we anticipate in sales in 2024 will be slightly more weighted towards Energy & Transportation than they were in 2023.

我會解釋一下。 2023 年，當可用性受到一定挑戰時，我們偏向於生產和運輸具有最高 OPACC 潛力的產品。鑑於可用性有所改善，我們預計 2024 年產品組合將更加標準化。我們也可能會看到不同細分市場的組合對利潤率的影響，因為我們預計 2024 年的銷售額將稍微偏重於能源和運輸領域2023年。

Moving on, we expect to be within the top half of our updated ME&T free cash flow target range of $5 billion to $10 billion. As you consider our cash position, keep in mind the $1.7 billion cash outflow in the first quarter related to the payout of last year's incentive compensation expense. We also anticipate restructuring charges of $300 million to $450 million this year. Finally, we expect global effective tax rate in the range of 22.5% to 23.5%, an increase versus the 21.4% in 2023.

接下來，我們預計將達到更新後的 ME&T 自由現金流目標範圍 50 億至 100 億美元的上半部分。當您考慮我們的現金狀況時，請記住第一季與去年激勵薪酬支出相關的 17 億美元現金流出。我們也預計今年的重組費用為 3 億至 4.5 億美元。最後，我們預計全球有效稅率將在 22.5% 至 23.5% 之間，較 2023 年的 21.4% 上升。

Now on Slide 20. Our expectations for the first quarter, starting with the top line. We expect first quarter sales and revenues to be broadly similar to the prior year. We anticipate price to be favorable, although significantly less in absolute dollar terms than had occurred through 2023. We expect demand to remain healthy. However, we anticipate a slightly lower dealer inventory build for machines in the first quarter compared to a $1.1 billion build in the first quarter of 2023. This will act as a headwind to sales.

現在看投影片 20。我們對第一季的預期，從營收開始。我們預計第一季的銷售額和收入將與去年大致相似。我們預計價格將會有利，儘管以絕對美元計算，價格將顯著低於 2023 年。我們預計需求將保持健康。然而，我們預計第一季經銷商的機器庫存建設將略低於 2023 年第一季 11 億美元的庫存建設。這將成為銷售的阻力。

At the segment level, in Construction Industries, we anticipate flattish to slightly higher first quarter sales versus the prior year, primarily due to favorable price. We anticipate lower sales and Resource Industries compared to the prior year, driven by lower volume, partially offset by favorable price. In Energy & Transportation, we expect flattish to slightly higher sales versus the prior year, with updated favorable volume benefiting the upside scenario.

在建築業的細分市場層面，我們預計第一季銷售額將與去年持平或略高，這主要是由於價格優惠。我們預計，由於銷量減少，銷售額和資源行業與上年相比將有所下降，但部分被有利的價格所抵消。在能源和運輸領域，我們預期銷售額與上年持平或略有上升，最新的有利銷售將有利於上行前景。

On margins, we expect the enterprise adjusted operating profit margin in the first quarter to be broadly similar to the first -- prior year. Price should more than offset manufacturing costs as price actions from 2023 rolled into 2024. We expect price will be lower in absolute dollar terms versus the prior year. We anticipate manufacturing costs to increase compared to last year, principally impacted by cost absorption as we do not expect an inventory build like we saw in the first quarter of 2023. We also anticipate an increase in SG&A and R&D expenses related to the strategic investment spend.

在利潤率方面，我們預計第一季企業調整後的營業利潤率將與去年第一季大致相似。隨著 2023 年的價格走勢持續到 2024 年，價格應該足以抵消製造成本。我們預計以絕對美元計算的價格將低於去年。我們預計製造成本將比去年增加，主要受到成本吸收的影響，因為我們預計庫存不會像 2023 年第一季那樣增加。我們也預計與策略投資支出相關的銷售、行政管理和研發費用將會增加。

By segment, in Construction Industries, we anticipate a similar margin as compared to the prior year. We expect price to offset strategic investment spend and slightly higher manufacturing costs, including cost absorption. In Resource Industries, we expect a lower margin compared to the prior year, impacted by lower volume, partially offset by favorable price. In Energy & Transportation, we anticipate a similar margin versus the prior year, A slightly stronger price should be offset by higher manufacturing costs.

以建築業細分市場來看，我們預期利潤率與前一年類似。我們預計價格將抵消戰略投資支出和略高的製造成本（包括成本吸收）。在資源產業，我們預期利潤率將低於上年，原因是銷售量下降，但部分被有利的價格所抵銷。在能源和運輸領域，我們預期利潤率與去年類似，價格略有上漲應該會被更高的製造成本所抵銷。

Turning to Slide 21. Let me summarize. Adjusted profit per share of $21.21 exceeded our previous full year record by 53%. We exceeded the top end of our targeted ranges for adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. We have increased the top end of our adjusted profit margin range, and we have raised our ME&T free cash flow target range. We expect to be in the top half of our updated margin and ME&T free cash flow target ranges in 2024, and we anticipate another year of services growth as we continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

轉向投影片 21。讓我總結一下。調整後每股利潤為 21.21 美元，比我們之前的全年記錄高出了 53%。我們超出了調整後營業利潤率和 ME&T 自由現金流目標範圍的上限。我們提高了調整後利潤率範圍的上限，並提高了 ME&T 自由現金流目標範圍。我們預計到 2024 年將達到更新後的利潤率和 ME&T 自由現金流目標範圍的上半部分，並且隨著我們繼續執行長期盈利增長戰略，我們預計服務業將迎來另一年的增長。

And with that, we'll take your questions.

接下來，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

My question is on inventory, kind of at all levels. You had a healthy destock in the quarter. I think your volumes were down around 4, retail sales up 8, and so that's nice. I wanted to see how inventory versus what you expect out of the business at the dealer level at your finished goods level and also at your WIP raws, where your own inventories have been elevated. So just -- how do you feel the business is performing at those levels? And then what's the path from here, especially on your own inventory?

我的問題是關於各個層級的庫存。本季您的庫存進行了健康的去化。我認為你們的銷量下降了 4 左右，零售額增長了 8，所以這很好。我想了解經銷商層面、成品層面以及 WIP 原料（您自己的庫存已增加）的庫存與您對業務的預期有何不同。那麼，您覺得公司在這些水準上的表現如何？那麼接下來的路是什麼，尤其是在你自己的庫存上？

Rob, starting with our inventory, as we discussed in previous calls, just because of the supply chain constraints we've had, our internal manufacturing operations are not running as efficiently as I would like. We believe we still have an opportunity to do a better job there.

羅布，從我們的庫存開始，正如我們在之前的電話中討論的那樣，僅僅由於我們所面臨的供應鏈限制，我們的內部製造業務的運作效率並不像我希望的那樣。我們相信我們仍然有機會在那裡做得更好。

Certainly, the supply chain constraints have started to ease, and that's made things a bit easier, but we still are dealing with some areas of constraint. So again, I think we have opportunities there, and we'll continue to work on that and try to get more lean.

當然，供應鏈的限制已經開始緩解，這讓事情變得容易一些，但我們仍在處理一些限制領域。再說一遍，我認為我們在那裡有機會，我們將繼續努力並努力變得更加精益。

In terms of dealer inventory, again, we talked about it in our prepared remarks. Of course, dealers are independent businesses, make their own decisions. And their decisions on inventory are a combination of what they see in future demand. But also availability and our ability to reduce lead times allows them and our customers to place orders later. So again, we've talked about the fact that we don't expect a significant change in dealer inventories in 2024, but again, they're independent businesses and will make their own decisions.

關於經銷商庫存，我們在準備好的演講中再次談到了這一點。當然，經銷商是獨立的企業，自己做決定。他們對庫存的決定是他們對未來需求的結合。而且可用性和我們縮短交貨時間的能力使他們和我們的客戶能夠稍後下訂單。我們再次討論過這樣一個事實，即我們預計 2024 年經銷商庫存不會發生重大變化，但同樣，他們是獨立企業，將做出自己的決定。

Yes. Just a couple of things to add. I mean if you look at our days inventory outstanding, Rob, it's running at about 15% to 20% higher than historic levels. So that gives us an opportunity over the next several years to work that down in a way that manages also from a supply base perspective, not to create undue problems for them in their outlook. So we'll continue to look at that.

是的。只需添加幾件事。我的意思是，羅布，如果你看看我們當天的未清庫存，你會發現它比歷史水平高出約 15% 到 20%。因此，這使我們有機會在未來幾年內以一種從供應基地角度進行管理的方式來解決這一問題，而不是對他們的前景造成不必要的問題。所以我們將繼續關注這一點。

And then just mention on dealer inventory, particularly within construction dealer inventory is about the middle of the range, the target range we talk about 3 to 4 months. So it's pretty much bang on there. So dealers are holding what probably we would continue to expect them to hold.

然後就提到經銷商庫存，特別是建築經銷商庫存，大約處於中間範圍，我們談論的目標範圍是 3 到 4 個月。所以它非常受歡迎。因此，經銷商持有的股票可能是我們繼續期望他們持有的股票。

And your next question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

You guys just reported a record sales and earnings. There's a view that many of your businesses are operating at peak levels. I'm curious when you look at your overall portfolio, especially maybe on a unit basis versus prior cycles, are there areas and regions where you feel like your business is still not operating at peak levels or record levels?

你們剛剛報告了創紀錄的銷售額和收入。有一種觀點認為，您的許多企業都在以最高水準運作。我很好奇，當您查看您的整體投資組合時，尤其是與之前的周期相比，可能會以單位為基礎，您是否認為您的業務仍未達到峰值或創紀錄水平的領域和地區？

Do you feel it as we go in the back half of this year, if rates come down, financial conditions ease, is there a torque in areas of your business where you feel like the backlog could start to maybe bottom and pick up as those conditions start to get a little bit better through the year?

今年下半年，如果利率下降、財務狀況緩解，您是否有這樣的感覺？您的業務領域是否存在扭矩，您認為積壓可能會開始觸底並隨著這些條件而回升今年開始好一點了嗎？

All right. Well, thanks for your question. Maybe just talk about some of the areas that we're most excited about as we move forward.

好的。嗯，謝謝你的提問。也許只是談談我們前進過程中最興奮的一些領域。

And without putting a time dimension on this, but one of the things that we've talked about is that we believe that the energy transition will increase demand for commodities over time, thereby expanding our total addressable market. So as we look forward and you think about the increased adoption of things like EVs and the amount of minerals that will need to be produced by our mining customers to satisfy that demand, we believe that, again, it creates an opportunity for us moving forward over the next few years.

雖然沒有時間維度，但我們討論的一件事是，我們相信能源轉型將隨著時間的推移增加對商品的需求，從而擴大我們的總目標市場。因此，當我們展望未來，並且考慮到電動車等產品的越來越多的採用以及我們的採礦客戶需要生產的礦物數量來滿足這一需求時，我們相信，這再次為我們前進創造了機會在接下來的幾年裡。

And also, we're very excited about the opportunities around large engines. There's a secular growth trend going on in data centers related to -- as I mentioned, related to cloud computing and generative AI. And so we're very excited about that. We're making an investment to increase our large engine capacity.

而且，我們對大型引擎的機會感到非常興奮。正如我所提到的，與雲端運算和產生人工智慧相關的資料中心正在呈現長期成長趨勢。我們對此感到非常興奮。我們正在進行投資以增加我們的大型引擎容量。

So again, we believe that is an area of increase in our total addressable market as well. And just kind of think about around the world, one of the things we talked about in previous calls is the fact that our market in China is relatively weak. Over time, that market has been 5% to 10% of enterprise sales, and we had strong years in China in 2020 and 2021. We saw a decline in 2022, a further decline in 2023, and we expect that market to still be relatively weak again this year.

因此，我們再次相信這也是我們總目標市場的成長領域。想想世界各地，我們在之前的電話會議中談到的一件事是我們在中國的市場相對較弱。隨著時間的推移，該市場已佔企業銷售額的5% 至10%，我們在2020 年和2021 年在中國經歷了強勁的幾年。我們看到2022 年有所下降，2023 年進一步下降，我們預計該市場仍將相對今年再次疲軟。

So we're not in a situation where we're hitting on all cylinders in all markets around the world, both from a product and geographic perspective. Europe is, again, we do believe there's opportunities there over time depending on what happens in the economic cycle. So again, it's not a situation where if you look around the world, we're hitting at all the cylinders going as good as they can. So we believe we have opportunities here.

因此，無論是從產品或地理角度來看，我們都沒有在全球所有市場全力以赴。歐洲，我們確實相信，隨著時間的推移，歐洲會出現機遇，這取決於經濟週期的情況。再說一次，如果你環顧世界，我們並不是全力以赴。所以我們相信我們在這裡有機會。

And your next question comes from Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

My question is more of a medium to long term in nature. So services growth was 5% in 2023. If you want to hit that $28 billion target, it seems like growth would need to accelerate from that to, call it, a high single-digit percent number over the next 3 years annually.

我的問題本質上更多的是中長期問題。因此，到 2023 年，服務業成長率為 5%。如果你想達到 280 億美元的目標，似乎需要在未來 3 年內每年加速成長，達到一個高個位數百分比。

So can you help us understand what could drive this acceleration in growth? And do you need industry growth to remain positive during these next 3 years to support that aspiration? Or can services grow independent of the end market or industry growth?

那麼您能否幫助我們了解什麼可以推動這種加速成長？您是否需要產業在未來三年內保持積極成長來支持這一願望？或者服務的成長能否獨立於終端市場或產業的成長？

Well, thank you for your question. We've been pleased by the progress we've made. You recall, we started with that 2016 baseline of $14 billion, and we have increased it to $23 billion. Our teams continue to strive to achieve that $28 billion number.

嗯，謝謝你的提問。我們對所取得的進展感到高興。您還記得嗎，我們以 2016 年 140 億美元的基準開始，現已將其增加到 230 億美元。我們的團隊將繼續努力實現 280 億美元的目標。

And one of the things we said when we laid out the target is we didn't expect it to be in a straight line. We thought it would be relatively back-end loaded. But we continue to invest in our digital capabilities, e-commerce. I talked earlier about CVAs and the other things that we're doing. We're working very closely with our dealers as well. So we do believe that there's an opportunity, regardless of industry growth to increase services. And again, we continue to strive to achieve that number.

我們在設定目標時說過的一件事是，我們沒想到它會是一條直線。我們認為它會是相對後端加載的。但我們繼續投資於我們的數位能力和電子商務。我之前談到了 CVA 以及我們正在做的其他事情。我們也與我們的經銷商密切合作。因此，我們確實相信，無論行業成長如何，都有機會增加服務。再次，我們將繼續努力實現這一目標。

One of the things that we also would notice is STUs were positive as well. And one of the things that impacts, of course, our services sales is dealer buying patterns are on parts, but we're encouraged by the fact that STUs were positive.

我們也會注意到的一件事是 STU 也是正面的。當然，影響我們服務銷售的因素之一是經銷商對零件的購買模式，但 STU 的正面表現令我們感到鼓舞。

And your next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

First, just a clarification in your answer, if you could. The operating margin guidance, I know you have the sales framework, but just if you can just help us, do you expect your operating margins to be flat, up or down for the year?

首先，如果可以的話，請在您的答案中澄清。營業利潤率指導，我知道您有銷售框架，但如果您能幫助我們，您預計今年的營業利潤率會持平、上升還是下降？

But my real question is the backlog. I'm just trying to understand the size of the backlog, the relationship it usually has with next year's sales would imply a lot stronger growth than you're forecasting? And I'm just trying to understand maybe the orders in the quarter were okay. The dealer inventory drag, right, the growth last year, but not growth this year, that's a drag year-over-year. That one in account come closer really to accounting for where the sales would normally be guided for next year with this level of backlog.

但我真正的問題是積壓。我只是想了解積壓的規模，它通常與明年的銷售之間的關係是否意味著成長比您預測的要強得多？我只是想了解也許本季的訂單還不錯。經銷商庫存拖累了去年的成長，但不是今年的成長，這是同比的拖累。這個帳戶實際上更接近考慮明年在這種積壓水平下通常會指導的銷售量。

So I'm just trying to put my head around, with that size backlog, the flat sales, is that a concern that -- again, the orders were good for the quarter, that you're seeing slower orders coming? Just trying to correlate that backlog to only flat sales.

因此，我只是想思考一下，由於積壓的規模如此之大，銷售持平，這是否是一個令人擔憂的問題——同樣，本季度的訂單情況良好，您是否看到訂單來得較慢？只是試圖將積壓訂單與銷售量持平相關聯。

Yes, David, let me start on the backlog and then talk about margin guidance afterwards. On backlog, obviously, backlog conversion varies. The one thing you should always think about is, again, backlog is not a single type of activity. It's not just related to, for example, machines. Some of it is related to large engines and some of it is related to solar.

是的，大衛，讓我從積壓的訂單開始，然後再討論保證金指導。顯然，在積壓方面，積壓轉換有所不同。您應該始終考慮的一件事是，積壓工作並不是單一類型的活動。例如，它不僅僅與機器有關。其中一些與大型引擎有關，有些與太陽能有關。

Not all of those elements of the backlog actually are in 2024. Some of those will convert in 2025 and beyond. So actually, that's one of the factors, which is a little bit different than maybe versus history. And so why you wouldn't actually necessarily convert that. But that's part of it.

實際上，並非所有積壓項目都會在 2024 年完成。其中一些將在 2025 年及以後完成轉換。所以實際上，這是因素之一，與歷史相比可能有點不同。所以為什麼你實際上不一定要轉換它。但這是其中的一部分。

Again, just when we talk about guidance and what we're guiding around flattish sales and also around top half of the margin ranges, we are talking about ranges of outcomes. Obviously, it's the beginning of the year. We'll -- we've indicated where there will be some puts and takes. But obviously, performance this year has been exceptional.

再說一遍，當我們談論指導以及我們對銷售持平以及利潤範圍上半部分的指導時，我們談論的是結果範圍。顯然，現在是年初。我們將--我們已經指出了哪裡會有一些看跌期權。但顯然，今年的表現非常出色。

Our aim is to continue to drive to that level of performance. That's what we're focused on. And I think that's what the organization is focused on as well.

我們的目標是繼續達到這個績效水準。這就是我們關注的重點。我認為這也是該組織關注的重點。

Your next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Just a few on parts. So if you could elaborate on the parts decline that you saw in Resource. Any color on the magnitude of parts growth that you might expect for '24? And then how would you characterize parts inventory levels in the dealer network right now?

只是一些零件。因此，如果您能詳細說明您在資源中看到的零件下降。您對 24 年零件成長幅度有什麼看法？那麼您現在如何描述經銷商網路中的零件庫存水準？

Yes. So as we talked about, I mentioned part of the decline in part sales in Resource Industries was relating to dealer buying patents. We don't include -- obviously, we're talking about dealer inventory, that's machines and engines. It's not actually parts. And what we did see as availability improved as we went through 2023, we did see dealers reduce their inventory a little bit.

是的。正如我們所討論的，我提到資源產業零件銷售下降的部分原因與經銷商購買專利有關。顯然，我們不包括經銷商庫存，即機器和引擎。它實際上不是零件。隨著 2023 年的到來，我們確實看到可用性有所改善，我們確實看到經銷商稍微減少了庫存。

It's probably more at normalized levels now. Obviously, they'll continue to monitor it. They make their independent decisions. And as we always remind you, it's very complex, with over 150 dealers globally and a large number of parts that they order, but they obviously try and optimize their network.

現在可能更處於正常水平。顯然，他們會繼續關注此事。他們做出獨立的決定。正如我們一直提醒您的那樣，這是非常複雜的，全球有 150 多個經銷商，他們訂購了大量零件，但他們顯然在嘗試優化他們的網路。

Next year, we do expect a benefit from services revenue growth. Obviously, if we are to achieve our target, we would hope for a little bit of an acceleration versus what we saw in 2023. Obviously, that does depend a little bit on what happens with the dealers and buying patents.

明年，我們確實預期服務收入成長將帶來好處。顯然，如果我們要實現我們的目標，我們希望與 2023 年相比能有一點加速。顯然，這確實在一定程度上取決於經銷商和購買專利的情況。

And on resources, given the amount of truck utilization, we do expect services revenues to improve as we go through 2024 based on the need for rebuilds, particularly the large mining trucks. So that's where we are on services.

在資源方面，考慮到卡車的利用率，我們確實預計到 2024 年，根據重建的需要，服務收入將會有所改善，特別是大型礦用卡車。這就是我們的服務所在。

And your next question comes from Mig Dobre with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Baird。

Yes. Going back to construction, I'm curious to get your thoughts in terms of how you think about margin here. And it sounds like you're guiding Q1 flat margin year-over-year, which would be tremendous given the comp there. Are margins sustainable at this level? Is there any insight you can give us as to how you see the year progressing beyond Q1?

是的。回到建設上來，我很想了解您對利潤的看法。聽起來您正在指導第一季的利潤率同比持平，考慮到那裡的競爭情況，這將是巨大的。在這個水準上利潤率是否可持續？您對今年第一季之後的進展有何看法？

Yes, there's going to be a couple of things, Mig, which are going to happen as we go through 2024. The one that's a little bit hard to predict at the moment is any potential mix impact. As we said, when we were going through 2023, we biased our production towards machines with the highest levels of OPACC. That's what customers wanted as well. So met customer demand, particularly those products.

是的，米格，在我們進入 2024 年時，將會發生一些事情。目前有點難以預測的是任何潛在的混合影響。正如我們所說，當我們進入 2023 年時，我們的生產偏向於 OPACC 水平最高的機器。這也是客戶想要的。所以滿足了客戶的需求，特別是那些產品。

We expect a more normal mix product. That may have some impact on margins as we go through the year. Obviously, it's a little bit difficult to predict that at this stage, given that we're at the beginning of the year, but that potentially is the one. We will continue to invest in the business. We are continuing to drive services and services growth.

我們期待一個更正常的混合產品。這可能會對今年的利潤率產生一些影響。顯然，鑑於我們正處於今年年初，在現階段預測這一點有點困難，但這可能就是這樣。我們將繼續投資該業務。我們正在繼續推動服務和服務成長。

As you know, that's a possible upside potential, particularly in construction, where we have the largest opportunity. So those are the sort of big things or big buckets I would look at as we think through 2024. And both of those, one will be slightly negative and the other one possibly will be slightly more positive. So those are the sort of puts and takes at the moment.

如您所知，這可能具有上升潛力，特別是在建築業，我們擁有最大的機會。因此，在我們思考 2024 年時，這些都是我會關注的大事或大目標。而這兩者，其中一個可能會稍微消極，另一個可能會稍微積極一些。這些就是目前的賣權和賣出選擇權。

And your next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

Jim, Andrew, I'm wondering if you could just say more about the increase to the free cash flow guidance, a bigger increase there than on the margin framework. And we're a couple of years away, where you folks in 2020 were below the $5 billion number. So can you just talk about what's playing out better than you folks expected to drive the much stronger outlook for free cash flow conversion? And obviously, we're seeing a little performance here as well, but I'm wondering if you could just expand on the comments on the confidence through the cycle?

吉姆，安德魯，我想知道您是否可以更多地談論自由現金流指導的增加，那裡的增加比利潤框架更大。距離 2020 年，我們的收入將低於 50 億美元。那麼，您能談談什麼事情比你們預期的要好，從而推動了自由現金流轉換的前景更加強勁嗎？顯然，我們在這裡也看到了一些表現，但我想知道您是否可以擴展對整個週期信心的評論？

Well, Jerry, you recall when we launched our strategy in 2017, we really focused very heavily on OPACC, operating profit after capital charge. And we're really challenging our teams to work to ensure that we get a return for every dollar of capital that we invest. And we've also worked hard to reduce our structural costs. And again, with OPACC as our measure, that obviously helps us produce more cash.

好吧，傑瑞，你還記得我們在 2017 年推出策略時，我們確實非常關注 OPACC，即資本費用後的營業利潤。我們確實要求我們的團隊努力確保我們投資的每一美元資本都能得到回報。我們也努力降低結構成本。同樣，以 OPACC 作為我們的衡量標準，這顯然可以幫助我們產生更多現金。

Again, we demonstrated the ability to produce higher free cash flows. If I remember the numbers correctly, between 2019 and 2022, we produced $5 billion to $6 billion of free cash flow. And then in 2020, we had a 22% decline in our top line. And even that year, even during the COVID year when our top line dropped more than 20%, we still produced $3 billion of free cash flow. So again, we have the whole organization based on OPACC, and that's working all those levers every single day, and that helps us drive increased free cash flow.

我們再次證明了產生更高自由現金流的能力。如果我沒記錯的話，2019 年至 2022 年間，我們產生了 50 億至 60 億美元的自由現金流。然後到 2020 年，我們的收入下降了 22%。即使那一年，即使在新冠疫情期間，我們的收入下降了 20% 以上，我們仍然產生了 30 億美元的自由現金流。再說一遍，我們的整個組織都以 OPACC 為基礎，每天都在發揮所有這些槓桿作用，這有助於我們推動自由現金流的增加。

And that is part of the reason why we've upped the bottom end of the range because we are now more confident that, that OPACC will flow through to the bottom line. Obviously, with margins, the issue you have there is in a period of time where revenues decline, margins become an impact of a function of what happens from a gross margin perspective.

這就是我們提高該範圍下限的部分原因，因為我們現在更有信心 OPACC 將流向底線。顯然，就利潤率而言，您遇到的問題是，在收入下降的時期，利潤率會受到毛利率角度發生的情況的影響。

Actually on free cash flow, we can generate more free cash flow by actually using up some of our working capital and bringing that back through. And that's one of the things we expect as well and if that happens.

實際上，在自由現金流方面，我們可以透過實際使用一些營運資金並將其恢復來產生更多的自由現金流。這也是我們所期望的事情之一，如果這種情況發生的話。

And really you asked the question, I think, honestly, that's one thing that maybe is underappreciated about our performance, it's just our ability to produce cash and the way we really transformed the business over the last few years to produce higher free cash flows more consistently.

你真的問了這個問題，老實說，我認為這可能是我們的業績被低估的一件事，這只是我們產生現金的能力以及我們在過去幾年中真正改變業務以產生更高的自由現金流的方式始終如一。

And your next question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略。

Just wanted to maybe continue on that note. I wanted to understand a little bit maybe the reasoning or the thought process around not lowering the kind of low end of your operating profit margin range. You talked about the gross margin and you mentioned this in the prior response, but gross margin dynamic, maybe on volumes potentially also leading to a little bit more challenged, lower end of the range.

只是想繼續說下去。我想了解一點關於不降低營業利潤率範圍下限的推理或思考過程。您談到了毛利率，並且在先前的回覆中提到了這一點，但毛利率的動態，也許在銷量上也可能導致更具挑戰性的範圍下限。

So maybe what gives you confidence in keeping that rather than lowering that as well? And how do you kind of think about a wider range overall through the cycle rather than kind of a step higher?

那麼，是什麼讓您有信心保持這一水平而不是降低這一水平？您如何看待整個週期中更廣泛的整體範圍，而不是更高的一步？

Yes. So I mean, one of the things you would have seen over the last couple of years is the improvement in gross margins. That obviously -- effectively with the progressive margin range, what happens, obviously, is the leverage is what benefits us as we go through, which gives us more confidence now that there's more opportunity from a leverage perspective to drive the top end of the range. But that obviously means on a declining volume basis. There's more pressure. So that really was the reason why we kept the bottom end of the range as it was.

是的。所以我的意思是，過去幾年你會看到的事情之一就是毛利率的提高。顯然，在累進保證金範圍內，很明顯，槓桿是我們在經歷過程中受益的，這讓我們更有信心，因為從槓桿的角度來看，有更多機會推動該範圍的上限。但這顯然意味著成交量的下降。壓力更大了。這確實是我們保持該範圍底端不變的原因。

Interestingly, if you go back to the previous ranges, this is within -- the top end of the range now is virtually within a very, very marginal difference to the old margin target ranges that we had before.

有趣的是，如果你回到先前的範圍，你會發現這個範圍的上限現在實際上與我們之前的舊保證金目標範圍有非常非常小的差異。

And your next question comes from Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自查德·迪拉德和伯恩斯坦。

So on the price cost, so I think in your full year guide, you talked about price modestly exceeding manufacturing costs for the full year. But then also you talked about, I guess, some carryover is going to stay in the first part. So just trying to understand the cadence on that. And just to confirm, do you expect price cost to be positive through each quarter through the balance of the year?

因此，關於價格成本，我認為在您的全年指南中，您談到了全年價格適度超過製造成本。但你也談到，我想，一些遺留問題將保留在第一部分。所以只是想了解節奏。只是為了確認一下，您預計每季的價格成本到今年剩餘時間都會為正嗎？

Yes. So I think what we guided to is that we expect price to exceed manufacturing costs for the full year. We expect price to be positive in the first half of the year, more positive in the first half of the year because of carryover pricing. Obviously, there will be some other factors that go through there.

是的。因此，我認為我們的指導是，我們預計全年價格將超過製造成本。我們預期上半年價格將為正值，由於結轉定價，今年上半年價格會更樂觀。顯然，還會有其他一些因素影響。

Geographic mix, for example, was positive this year. That may not be as positive as we go through the second part of the year. So those are the sort of mix things that can happen. At this stage, we're not giving you a prediction -- a firm prediction. We know what we think overall for the full year, but most of that price benefit will come through in the first half.

例如，今年的地理組合是正面的。這可能不會像今年下半年那麼積極。所以這些都是可能發生的混合事情。在這個階段，我們不會給你一個預測──一個確定的預測。我們知道我們對全年的總體看法，但大部分價格優勢將在上半年實現。

Your next question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Jim, I wanted to go back, if I could, to a response to one of the earlier questions, where you talked about supply chain has kind of improved a little bit, but it's still causing productivity issues. And I guess I'm trying to think that through as we go forward, if supply chain continues to normalize, is there any reason to think we wouldn't get that productivity back?

吉姆，如果可以的話，我想回去回答之前的一個問題，您談到供應鏈已經有所改善，但它仍然導致生產力問題。我想我正在嘗試思考，隨著我們的前進，如果供應鏈繼續正常化，是否有任何理由認為我們不會恢復生產力？

Well, certainly, that's what we're driving our teams to do. And one of the things we talked about, of course, is we have still constraints in large engines. And that -- we're not -- clearly, we're not running as lean as I would like in that area. And of course, when you have some issues in engines, that can also impact machines as well, just because of the dynamics of shipping engines to our machine lines.

嗯，當然，這就是我們推動團隊去做的事情。當然，我們談論的一件事是我們在大型引擎方面仍然存在限制。很明顯，我們在該領域並沒有像我希望的那樣精益運作。當然，當引擎出現一些問題時，這也會影響機器，因為將引擎運送到我們的機器生產線的動態。

So certainly, our goal is to become more lean and to get back into a better operating cadence. And it has improved and supply chain conditions has improved, but we still have a ways to go. But again, difficult to predict how long it will take that to happen. Our engine investment, as we mentioned earlier, is a multiyear investment to increase that capacity for both new engines and for parts. And then I think that will be an important element of us achieving better lean operations and getting some of that inventory out internally.

當然，我們的目標是變得更加精簡並恢復更好的營運節奏。現在情況已經有所改善，供應鏈狀況也有所改善，但我們還有很長的路要走。但同樣，很難預測這需要多長時間才能發生。正如我們之前提到的，我們的引擎投資是一項多年投資，旨在提高新引擎和零件的產能。然後我認為這將是我們實現更好的精益營運並在內部清除部分庫存的一個重要因素。

Your next question comes from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

您的下一個問題來自克里斯汀歐文和奧本海默。

Great. Just a longer-term question here related to the hydrogen fuel cell pilot program, just given that secular growth opportunity in data center, how quickly can you commercialize this? And should we expect the business model for Cat to be more systems integration and components? Or is there some additional vertical integration in like the balance of systems that is being supported by this capital campaign that you outlined?

偉大的。這裡有一個與氫燃料電池試點計劃相關的長期問題，考慮到資料中心的長期成長機會，您能多快將其商業化？我們是否應該期望 Cat 的業務模型更多是系統整合和組件？或者是否有一些額外的垂直整合，例如您概述的資本活動所支援的系統平衡？

Yes. Again, most of the capital -- the investments that we're making around large engines around parts and new engines, that's really what the focus of it is.

是的。同樣，大部分資本——我們圍繞大型引擎、零件和新引擎的投資，這才是真正的重點。

Yes. And so I mean, overall, when we look out, one of the opportunities for us, particularly when Jim was talking about distributed generation, was the fact that, obviously, grid stability is going to be an issue. And one of the things that's going to be needed is there are system hole system projects that will be part of that. So I think there is definitely an opportunity for us there to think more broadly about services in those environments as well.

是的。所以我的意思是，總的來說，當我們放眼望去時，我們的機會之一，特別是當吉姆談論分散式發電時，事實是，顯然，電網穩定性將成為一個問題。需要做的事情之一是系統漏洞系統專案將成為其中的一部分。因此，我認為我們絕對有機會更廣泛地思考這些環境中的服務。

We have time for one more question.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。

And today's final question comes from Stanley Elliott with Stifel.

今天的最後一個問題來自 Stanley Elliott 和 Stifel。

Congratulations. And can you talk a little bit more about the free cash flow? I mean, you got $1 billion to $2 billion more additional that you're looking at and targeting. You've done a very nice job of increasing the dividend on a steady basis. Should we think of this as accelerated repurchase activity into '24? Is there something on the M&A front? Any color there would be greatly helpful.

恭喜。能多談談自由現金流嗎？我的意思是，您正在考慮和瞄準的額外資金還有 10 億到 20 億美元。你們在穩定增加股息方面做得非常好。我們是否應該將其視為 24 世紀加速回購活動？併購方面有進展嗎？任何顏色都會有很大幫助。

Yes. Really, what we continue to talk about is the fact that we will -- we intend to return essentially all free cash flow to shareholders over time through a combination of dividends and share repurchases.

是的。事實上，我們繼續談論的事實是，我們打算透過股息和股票回購的結合，隨著時間的推移，將基本上所有自由現金流返還給股東。

In terms of M&A, we're always open to opportunities. But frankly, we believe we have outstanding opportunities to grow our business organically. And so while we have made some relatively small acquisitions to do things like games and technology, or we think about the weird SPM and oil and gas to expand our product line a bit, we're really focused on organically growing our business because we think we have great opportunities around services.

在併購方面，我們始終對機會持開放態度。但坦白說，我們相信我們擁有有機發展業務的絕佳機會。因此，雖然我們進行了一些相對較小的收購來做遊戲和技術等事情，或者我們考慮奇怪的SPM 和石油和天然氣來擴大我們的產品線，但我們真正專注於有機增長我們的業務，因為我們認為我們在服務方面有很好的機會。

We talked about the secular growth trend around data centers. We -- LNG -- conditional LNG exports, the fact that the energy transition will create opportunities for commodities increase over time. So again, our primary focus is on organically growing our business.

我們討論了資料中心的長期成長趨勢。我們——液化天然氣——有條件的液化天然氣出口，事實上，能源轉型將為大宗商品創造機會，隨著時間的推移而增加。再說一遍，我們的主要重點是有機發展我們的業務。

Okay. With that, I just would like to thank everyone for joining the call. I appreciate all your questions. I'd like to just close by thanking our global team for another great quarter and just an exceptional record year.

好的。在此，我要感謝大家加入這次電話會議。我感謝你提出的所有問題。最後，我想感謝我們的全球團隊又創造了一個出色的季度，並創造了非凡的創紀錄的一年。

As we discussed, we're increasing the top end of our target range for adjusted operating profit margins, and we've raised our target range for ME&T free cash flow. And this reflects continuing healthy customer demand as well as our strong operating performance. And we remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth.

正如我們所討論的，我們正在提高調整後營業利潤率目標範圍的上限，並且我們提高了 ME&T 自由現金流的目標範圍。這反映了持續健康的客戶需求以及我們強勁的經營業績。我們仍然專注於執行我們的策略，並繼續投資以實現長期獲利成長。

Again, I appreciate you joining us. Stay safe.

再次感謝您加入我們。注意安全。

Thanks, everybody, and thank you, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined the call today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available.

謝謝大家，也謝謝吉姆、安德魯和今天加入電話會議的所有人。今天上午晚些時候，我們將在網上重播我們的電話會議。一旦有文字記錄，我們也將立即在我們的投資者關係網站上發布。

You'll also find a fourth quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com, and then click on Financials to view those materials.

您還可以找到我們財務長的第四季業績影片以及包含我們向用戶銷售資料的 SEC 文件。點擊 Investors.caterpillar.com，然後點擊「財務」以查看這些資料。

If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. The Investor Relations general phone number is (309) 675-4549.

如果您有任何疑問，請聯絡 Rob 或我。投資者關係總電話為 (309) 675-4549。

Now let's turn the call back to Abby to conclude our call.

現在讓我們將電話轉回給艾比來結束我們的通話。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們先生們，我們的通話到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。