開拓重工 (CAT) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the First Quarter 2023 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you. Please go ahead.

歡迎參加 Caterpillar 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給今天的演講者 Ryan Fiedler。謝謝。請繼續。

Thanks, Emma. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's First Quarter of 2023 Earnings Call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager. During our call today, we'll be discussing the first quarter earnings release that we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations. The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of the content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different from the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business On an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides.

謝謝，艾瑪。各位早上好，歡迎來到卡特彼勒 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁 Ryan Fiedler。今天加入我的是董事長兼首席執行官 Jim Umpleby；安德魯·邦菲爾德，首席財務官；全球金融服務部高級副總裁 Kyle Epley；高級投資者關係經理 Rob Rengel。在我們今天的電話會議中，我們將討論我們今天早些時候發布的第一季度收益報告。您可以在 investors.caterpillar.com 的活動和演示下找到我們的幻燈片、新聞稿和網絡廣播回顧。本次通話的內容受美國和國際版權法保護。未經 Caterpillar 事先書面許可，禁止轉播、轉播、複製或分發全部或部分內容。轉到幻燈片 2。在我們今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響。我們還會做出可能導致我們的實際結果與我們在本次電話會議上與您分享的信息不同的假設。請參閱我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明提醒，以詳細了解可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預測存在重大差異的單獨或總體因素。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含對我們認為可能對我們的業務持續產生重大影響的許多因素的詳細討論。在今天的電話會議上，我們還將參考非 GAAP 數字。如需將任何非 GAAP 數據與相應的美國 GAAP 數據進行核對，請參閱財報電話會議幻燈片的附錄。

Now let's turn to Slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 3，將電話轉給我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Jim Umpleby。

Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'd like to start by thanking our global team for a strong first quarter, including double-digit top line growth, higher operating profit margins, record adjusted profit per share and strong ME&T free cash flow.

謝謝，瑞安。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。首先，我要感謝我們的全球團隊在第一季度的強勁表現，包括兩位數的營收增長、更高的營業利潤率、創紀錄的調整後每股利潤以及強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流。

Our results reflect healthy customer demand across most end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth.

我們的結果反映了大多數終端市場對我們產品和服務的良好客戶需求。我們仍然專注於執行我們的戰略，並繼續投資以實現長期盈利增長。

In today's call, I'll begin with my perspectives on our performance in the quarter. I'll then provide some insights on our end markets. Lastly, I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey.

在今天的電話會議上，我將從我對本季度業績的看法開始。然後我將提供一些關於我們的終端市場的見解。最後，我將提供有關我們可持續發展之旅的最新信息。

It was a very strong quarter. Sales and revenues were better than we expected, with price realization, dealer inventory and sales to users each slightly better than we anticipated. Sales to users were higher than expected in Energy & Transportation and Resource Industries. Overall, sales and revenues rose by 17% versus the first quarter of 2022.

這是一個非常強勁的季度。銷售和收入好於我們的預期，價格實現、經銷商庫存和對用戶的銷售均略好於我們的預期。能源與運輸和資源行業的用戶銷售額高於預期。總體而言，與 2022 年第一季度相比，銷售額和收入增長了 17%。

The year-over-year increase was due to strong price realization and volume growth, which was driven by higher sales of equipment to end users. We achieved double-digit top line increases in each of our 3 primary segments.

同比增長是由於強勁的價格實現和銷量增長，這是由向終端用戶銷售更高的設備所推動的。我們在 3 個主要部門中的每一個都實現了兩位數的收入增長。

Adjusted operating profit margins increased to 21.1% in the first quarter, as we saw margins improve, both on a sequential and year-over-year basis. The adjusted operating profit margins were significantly better than we had anticipated primarily due to better-than-expected manufacturing costs, including efficiencies and absorption, stronger price realization and volume growth. Andrew will discuss in detail later.

第一季度調整後的營業利潤率增至 21.1%，因為我們看到利潤率環比和同比都有所提高。調整後的營業利潤率明顯好於我們的預期，這主要是由於製造成本好於預期，包括效率和吸收、更強勁的價格實現和銷量增長。安德魯稍後會詳細討論。

Backlog ended the quarter at $30.4 billion, flat relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. Equipment availability increased during the quarter due to improving supply chain conditions. While dealer order rates are lower, they remain at healthy levels. As you know, as availability improves, order rates typically normalize, as dealers can wait longer to place orders for long lead time items.

本季度末積壓訂單為 304 億美元，與 2022 年第四季度持平。由於供應鏈狀況改善，本季度設備可用性有所增加。雖然經銷商訂單率較低，但仍處於健康水平。如您所知，隨著可用性的提高，訂單率通常會正常化，因為經銷商可以等待更長的時間來為交貨期長的商品下訂單。

Our healthy backlog continues to underpin our constructive views about our end markets. Despite the improvement in supply chain, pockets of challenge remain as we increase production, particularly for large engines, which impacts energy and transportation and some of our larger machines.

我們健康的積壓訂單繼續支持我們對終端市場的建設性看法。儘管供應鏈有所改善，但隨著我們增加產量，特別是大型發動機，這會影響能源和運輸以及我們的一些大型機器，挑戰仍然存在。

We delivered a strong first quarter, which positions us well for an even better year in 2023 than we previously anticipated. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, overall demand remains healthy across our products and services.

我們交付了強勁的第一季度，這使我們在 2023 年取得了比我們之前預期更好的一年。在我們繼續密切關注全球宏觀經濟狀況的同時，我們的產品和服務的總體需求依然健康。

Turning to Slide 4. In the first quarter of 2023, sales and revenues increased 17% versus last year at $15.9 billion. This was primarily due to favorable price and volume growth. Compared with the first quarter of 2022, overall sales to users increased 13%.

轉到幻燈片 4。2023 年第一季度，銷售額和收入比去年同期增長 17%，達到 159 億美元。這主要是由於有利的價格和銷量增長。與 2022 年第一季度相比，對用戶的整體銷售額增長了 13%。

For Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users rose by 5%, while Energy & Transportation was up 39%. Sales to users in Construction Industries were flat, in line with our expectations.

對於建築行業和資源行業，對用戶的銷售額增長了 5%，而能源和運輸行業增長了 39%。建築行業用戶的銷售額持平，符合我們的預期。

North American sales to users increased, as demand remained healthy for both nonresidential and residential, despite some moderation of the growth rate in residential. Overall, our North American sales to users were better than we expected.

儘管住宅的增長率有所放緩，但由於非住宅和住宅的需求保持健康，北美對用戶的銷售額有所增加。總體而言，我們在北美對用戶的銷售情況好於我們的預期。

EAME also saw higher sales to users, led by strength in the Middle East. In Latin America and Asia Pacific, sales to users declined in the quarter. The decline in Asia Pacific included further weakening in China.

EAME 的用戶銷售額也有所增加，其中中東地區的實力最為強勁。在拉丁美洲和亞太地區，本季度用戶銷售額有所下降。亞太地區的下滑包括中國的進一步疲軟。

In Resource Industries, sales to users increased 18%, which was our third consecutive quarter of accelerating sales to users.

在資源行業，對用戶的銷售額增長了 18%，這是我們連續第三個季度加速對用戶的銷售。

In Mining, sales to users benefited from a higher level of commissioning in the quarter. Within heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, sales to users also increased, supported by growth for infrastructure-related projects.

在採礦業，對用戶的銷售受益於本季度更高水平的調試。在重型建築、採石場和骨料中，在基礎設施相關項目增長的支持下，對用戶的銷售額也有所增加。

In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 39%. In the first quarter, oil and gas sales to users benefited from continued strength in new engine sales to customers, including repowering active fleets, upgrading technology to Tier 4 dynamic gas blending and adding incremental gas compression units.

在能源與交通領域，面向用戶的銷售額增長了 39%。第一季度，面向用戶的石油和天然氣銷售受益於面向客戶的新發動機銷售持續強勁，包括為現役車隊提供動力、將技術升級至 Tier 4 動態氣體混合以及增加氣體壓縮裝置。

We also saw strong sales of turbines and turbine-related services. Power generation and industrial sales to users continue to remain positive due to favorable market conditions. Transportation declined from a relatively low base primarily due to timing in marine deliveries, which was partially offset by deliveries of international locomotives.

我們還看到渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務的強勁銷售。由於有利的市場條件，發電量和對用戶的工業銷售繼續保持積極。運輸從相對較低的基數開始下降，這主要是由於海運交付的時間安排，這部分被國際機車的交付所抵消。

Dealer inventory increased by about $1.4 billion in the first quarter, which was slightly above our expectations compared to a $1.3 billion increase in the same quarter last year.

第一季度經銷商庫存增加約 14 億美元，略高於我們的預期，而去年同期增加了 13 億美元。

In Construction Industries, the increase in dealer inventory was primarily due to stronger North American shipments, which remains our most constrained region.

在建築行業，經銷商庫存的增加主要是由於北美出貨量增加，這仍然是我們最受限制的地區。

As we mentioned last quarter, over 70% of the combined dealer inventory in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation is supported by customer orders.

正如我們在上個季度提到的那樣，資源行業和能源與運輸行業超過 70% 的經銷商庫存由客戶訂單支持。

Moving to Slide 5. We generated strong ME&T free cash flow of $1.4 billion in the first quarter. We returned $1 billion to shareholders, which included about $600 million in dividends and $400 million in repurchase stock. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases.

轉到幻燈片 5。我們在第一季度產生了 14 億美元的強勁 ME&T 自由現金流。我們向股東返還了 10 億美元，其中包括約 6 億美元的股息和 4 億美元的回購股票。我們仍然為我們的股息貴族地位感到自豪，並繼續期望隨著時間的推移通過股息和股票回購將所有 ME&T 的自由現金流基本上返還給股東。

Now on Slide 6, I'll share some commentary on our expectations moving forward. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, our first quarter results lead us to expect that 2023 will be even better than we had previously anticipated on both the top and bottom line.

現在在幻燈片 6 上，我將分享一些關於我們對未來的期望的評論。在我們繼續密切關注全球宏觀經濟狀況的同時，我們第一季度的業績使我們預計 2023 年的收入和利潤將比我們之前預期的還要好。

For 2023, we currently expect to be in the top half of the targeted range for both adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. Andrew will provide additional color.

對於 2023 年，我們目前預計調整後的營業利潤率和 ME&T 自由現金流都將處於目標範圍的上半部分。安德魯將提供額外的顏色。

Before I discuss our outlook for key end markets, I'll provide some color on how we expect our top line to progress through this year. As I mentioned, we expect a strong top line for 2023, supported by price and higher sales to users, with healthy underlying end markets.

在我討論我們對主要終端市場的展望之前，我將提供一些關於我們預計我們的收入將如何在今年取得進展的顏色。正如我所提到的，我們預計 2023 年的營收將強勁，這得益於價格和用戶銷量的增加，以及健康的基礎終端市場。

We expect higher sales in the second quarter compared to the first, as is the typical seasonal pattern. Looking to the second half of 2023, it is important to highlight the second half of last year included the dealer inventory build of $1.4 billion, as dealers began to restock their inventories.

我們預計第二季度的銷售額將高於第一季度，這是典型的季節性模式。展望 2023 年下半年，重要的是要強調去年下半年包括經銷商庫存增加 14 億美元，因為經銷商開始補充庫存。

We are not planning for this trend to repeat. Instead, we expect to see dealers decrease inventories compared to the first quarter levels and end 2023 about flat relative to the end of 2022. Although we expect sales to users to remain positive for our primary segments in each quarter, our planning assumption is that Caterpillar second half sales will have a dealer inventory impact.

我們不打算重複這種趨勢。相反，我們預計經銷商的庫存與第一季度水平和 2023 年底相比與 2022 年底基本持平。儘管我們預計每個季度對用戶的銷售對我們的主要業務部門來說仍將保持正增長，但我們的計劃假設是 Caterpillar下半年銷量將對經銷商庫存產生影響。

Let me explain. First, although dealer inventory and some products and regions have normalized, others remain constrained. For example, in North America, dealer inventory remains below the typical range for many products. However, there is greater excavator inventory in a few regions, as supply dynamics improved in 2022, which, coupled with the slowing in China, has resulted in improved excavation product availability.

讓我解釋。首先，雖然經銷商庫存和一些產品和地區已經恢復正常，但其他地區仍然受到限制。例如，在北美，經銷商庫存仍然低於許多產品的典型範圍。然而，隨著 2022 年供應動態的改善，加上中國經濟放緩，挖掘機產品的可用性有所改善，一些地區的挖掘機庫存有所增加。

Given the improved availability of excavators, we expect that dealers will scale back their levels of excavator inventory in the second half of the year, even though demand remains healthy.

鑑於挖掘機的可用性提高，我們預計經銷商將在下半年縮減挖掘機庫存水平，儘管需求依然健康。

As a reminder, [Dealers our] independent businesses and control their own inventory.

提醒一下，[經銷商我們的]獨立業務並控制自己的庫存。

Second, in late 2023, we have scheduled a couple of new product changeovers in construction industry factories that will also impact the second half.

其次，在 2023 年底，我們計劃在建築行業工廠進行幾次新產品轉換，這也將影響下半年。

Now I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets this year, starting with Construction Industries. In North America, overall, we continue to see positive momentum in 2023. We expect growth in nonresidential construction in North America due to the positive impact of government-related infrastructure investments and a healthy pipeline of construction projects.

現在，我將從建築行業開始討論我們對今年主要終端市場的展望。總體而言，在北美，我們繼續看到 2023 年的積極勢頭。由於政府相關基礎設施投資的積極影響和健康的建設項目管道，我們預計北美非住宅建築將增長。

Although residential construction housing starts have softened, the growth rate of our residential construction equipment remains positive as the supply chain pressures alleviate.

儘管住宅建築新屋開工有所放緩，但隨著供應鏈壓力的緩解，我們住宅建築設備的增長率仍保持正增長。

In Asia Pacific, excluding China, we expect growth in Construction Industries due to public infrastructure spending and supportive commodity prices. As we mentioned during our previous earnings calls, we expect Chinese above 10-ton excavator industry to remain below 2022 levels due to low construction activity.

在亞太地區（不包括中國），我們預計建築業將因公共基礎設施支出和支持性商品價格而增長。正如我們在之前的財報電話會議上提到的那樣，由於建築活動低迷，我們預計中國 10 噸以上的挖掘機行業將保持在 2022 年的水平以下。

In 2023, sales in China are expected to be below the typical range of 5% to 10% of total Caterpillar sales.

到 2023 年，中國的銷售額預計將低於卡特彼勒總銷售額的 5% 至 10% 這一典型範圍。

In the EAME, business activity is now expected to increase versus last year based on healthy construction project activity, particularly strong construction demand in the Middle East. Although uncertain economic conditions remain, European construction is proving to be more resilient than we previously anticipated.

在 EAME，基於健康的建築項目活動，尤其是中東強勁的建築需求，現在預計商業活動將比去年有所增加。儘管不確定的經濟狀況依然存在，但事實證明歐洲建築業比我們之前預期的更具彈性。

Construction activity in Latin America is expected to be down in 2023 versus the strong 2022 performance.

與 2022 年的強勁表現相比，拉丁美洲的建築活動預計將在 2023 年下降。

There is some concern about the potential impact of a commercial real estate slowdown. We estimate that North American commercial real estate accounts for about 1% of total construction industry sales. Any slowdown related to this sector should not have a significant impact on Construction Industries.

人們擔心商業房地產放緩的潛在影響。我們估計北美商業地產約佔建築業總銷售額的 1%。與該行業相關的任何放緩都不應對建築業產生重大影響。

In Resource Industries, we expect healthy mining demand to continue, as commodity prices remain above investment thresholds. As I've mentioned during the last few years, customers remain capital disciplined, which supports a gradual increase in mining over time.

在資源行業，我們預計健康的採礦需求將繼續，因為大宗商品價格仍高於投資門檻。正如我在過去幾年中提到的那樣，客戶保持資本紀律，這支持隨著時間的推移逐漸增加挖礦。

We anticipate production utilization levels will remain elevated. We also expect the aging of the fleet and a lower level of park trucks to support future demand for our equipment and services.

我們預計生產利用率水平將保持高位。我們還預計車隊的老化和較低水平的停車卡車將支持未來對我們的設備和服務的需求。

We continue to lead the energy transition will support increased commodity demand, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for profitable growth.

我們繼續引領能源轉型將支持增加的商品需求，擴大我們的總潛在市場並為盈利增長提供更多機會。

In heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we anticipate continued growth due to major infrastructure and nonresidential construction projects.

在重型建築、採石場和骨料方面，我們預計主要基礎設施和非住宅建設項目將繼續增長。

In Energy & Transportation, we expect to follow our normal seasonal pattern, with higher sales in the second half of the year versus the first half.

在能源與交通領域，我們預計將遵循正常的季節性模式，下半年的銷售額將高於上半年。

In oil and gas, reciprocating engines, although customers remain disciplined, we are encouraged by continued strength and demand for both well servicing and gas compression.

在石油和天然氣領域，往復式發動機雖然客戶仍然遵守紀律，但我們對修井和氣體壓縮的持續強勁和需求感到鼓舞。

Power generation reciprocating engine demand is expected to remain healthy, including strong data center growth.

發電往復式發動機需求預計將保持健康，包括強勁的數據中心增長。

New equipment orders and services for solar turbines in both oil and gas and power generation are robust. Industrial remains healthy.

石油和天然氣以及發電領域的太陽能渦輪機的新設備訂單和服務都很強勁。工業保持健康。

In transportation, we anticipate strength in high-speed Marine as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets.

在運輸方面，隨著客戶繼續升級老化的船隊，我們預計高速海運業務將走強。

Moving to Slide 7. We are contributing to a reduced carbon future and continue to invest in new products, technologies and services to help our customers achieve their climate-related objectives. We recently completed and upgraded more than 15 models across our entire next-generation hydraulic excavator line.

轉到幻燈片 7。我們正在為減少碳排放的未來做出貢獻，並繼續投資於新產品、技術和服務，以幫助我們的客戶實現其與氣候相關的目標。我們最近完成併升級了整個下一代液壓挖掘機產品線的 15 多個型號。

The new models reduced fuel consumption by up to 25% compared to previous models and provide another option for customers to lower emissions, while improving operational efficiency. A customer can realize meaningful emissions reductions by simply moving to the newest next-gen model.

與以前的型號相比，新型號最多可減少 25% 的油耗，並為客戶提供了另一種降低排放的選擇，同時提高了運營效率。客戶可以通過簡單地轉向最新的下一代模型來實現有意義的減排。

This example reinforces our ongoing sustainability leadership and how we help our customers build a better, more sustainable world. In addition, we look forward to issuing our 18th annual sustainability report in May.

這個例子強化了我們持續的可持續發展領導地位，以及我們如何幫助我們的客戶建設一個更美好、更可持續的世界。此外，我們期待在 5 月發布第 18 份年度可持續發展報告。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給安德魯。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin by providing further color on the first quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I'll cover the balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow before concluding with a few comments on the full year and our assumptions for the second quarter.

謝謝，吉姆，大家早上好。我將首先提供有關第一季度業績的更多信息，包括我們細分市場的業績。然後我將介紹資產負債表和 ME&T 自由現金流，然後對全年和我們對第二季度的假設進行一些評論。

Beginning on Slide 8. Sales and revenues for the first quarter increased by 17% or $2.3 billion to $15.9 billion. The sales increase versus the prior year was due to strong price realization and higher volume, partially offset by currency impacts.

從幻燈片 8 開始。第一季度的銷售額和收入增長了 17% 或 23 億美元，達到 159 億美元。與上一年相比銷售額的增長是由於強勁的價格實現和更高的銷量，部分被貨幣影響所抵消。

Sales were higher than we had expected in January, with price realization, dealer inventory and end user demand each slightly better than we had anticipated.

1 月份的銷售額高於我們的預期，價格實現、經銷商庫存和最終用戶需求均略好於我們的預期。

Operating profit increased by 47% by $876 million to $2.7 billion, which includes the impact of the divestiture of the company's longwall business.

營業利潤增長 47%，增加 8.76 億美元，達到 27 億美元，其中包括剝離公司長壁業務的影響。

Adjusted operating profit increased by 79% or $1.5 billion to $3.3 billion. Favorable price realization and higher sales volume was partially offset by higher manufacturing costs. The adjusted operating profit margin was 21.1%, an increase of 740 basis points versus the prior year.

調整後營業利潤增長 79% 或 15 億美元，達到 33 億美元。較高的製造成本部分抵消了有利的價格實現和更高的銷量。調整後的營業利潤率為 21.1%，比上年增長 740 個基點。

As Jim mentioned, the adjusted operating margin was much better than we had anticipated. Lower-than-expected manufacturing costs, including efficiencies and absorption, with the largest variable, while price realization and volume were also stronger than we had envisaged. I'll provide additional color in a moment.

正如吉姆所說，調整後的營業利潤率比我們預期的要好得多。低於預期的製造成本，包括最大變量的效率和吸收，而價格實現和數量也比我們預期的要強。稍後我會提供額外的顏色。

Adjusted profit per share increased by 70% to $4.91 in the first quarter compared to $2.88 in the first quarter of last year. Adjusted profit per share in the first quarter of 2023 excluded pretax restructuring costs of $611 million, most of this related to the noncash charge from the divestiture of the company's longwall business.

第一季度調整後每股收益增長 70% 至 4.91 美元，而去年第一季度為 2.88 美元。 2023 年第一季度的調整後每股收益不包括 6.11 億美元的稅前重組成本，其中大部分與剝離公司長壁業務的非現金費用有關。

This compares to pretax restructuring costs of $13 million in the first quarter of 2022.

相比之下，2022 年第一季度的稅前重組成本為 1300 萬美元。

Other income of $32 million in the quarter was lower than the first quarter of 2022 by $221 million. The year-over-year decline included about $100 million unfavorable currency impact related to ME&T balance sheet translation and an adverse impact of $80 million for pension expense.

本季度的其他收入為 3200 萬美元，比 2022 年第一季度低 2.21 億美元。同比下降包括與 ME&T 資產負債表換算相關的約 1 億美元的不利貨幣影響以及 8000 萬美元的養老金支出不利影響。

The dollar strengthened marginally since our last earnings call, so the currency impact within the first quarter of 2023 was about $30 million better than we had anticipated than when we spoke to you in January.

自我們上次財報電話會議以來，美元略有走強，因此 2023 年第一季度的貨幣影響比我們在 1 月份與您交談時的預期高出約 3000 萬美元。

Finally, the provision for income tax in the first quarter, excluding discrete items, reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 23%.

最後，第一季度的所得稅撥備（不包括離散項目）反映了 23% 的全球年度有效稅率。

Moving on to Slide 9, the nine. The 17% increase in the top line versus the prior year was driven by favorable price realization and higher sales volume, while currency remained a headwind to sales. Volume improved in part due to a 13% increase in sales to users.

轉到幻燈片 9，九。收入較上年增長 17% 的原因是有利的價格實現和更高的銷量，而匯率仍然是銷售的不利因素。銷量增加的部分原因是對用戶的銷售額增長了 13%。

The impact from changes in dealer inventory was minimal, as the $1.4 billion build in the first quarter was similar to that seen in the first quarter of 2022. Services sales volume was slightly down, mainly due to dealer ordering patterns or services to their customers remain positive.

經銷商庫存變化的影響很小，因為第一季度的 14 億美元構建與 2022 年第一季度相似。服務銷量略有下降，這主要是由於經銷商訂購模式或對客戶的服務仍然存在積極的。

Compared to our expectations a quarter ago, sales were higher than we anticipated, largely due to slightly stronger volume and better-than-expected price realization.

與我們一個季度前的預期相比，銷售額高於我們的預期，這主要是由於銷量略有增加以及價格實現好於預期。

On volume, sales to users outpaced our expectations due to strong demand. In addition, the improving supply chain supported higher levels of production across our primary segments. This enabled dealers to increase their inventory levels ahead of the selling season by slightly more than we had expected.

在數量上，由於需求強勁，對用戶的銷售超出了我們的預期。此外，不斷改進的供應鏈支持了我們主要部門的更高生產水平。這使經銷商能夠在銷售旺季前將庫存水平提高到略高於我們預期的水平。

Moving to Slide 10. First quarter operating profit increased by 47% to $2.7 billion. Adjusted operating profit increased by 79% versus the prior year quarter as favorable price realization outpaced higher manufacturing costs. Sales volume was also a benefit.

轉到幻燈片 10。第一季度營業利潤增長 47%，達到 27 億美元。調整後的營業利潤比去年同期增長了 79%，這是因為有利的價格實現超過了製造成本的上漲。銷量也是一個好處。

Our first quarter adjusted operating profit margin of 21.1% was a 740 basis point increase versus the prior year.

我們第一季度調整後的營業利潤率為 21.1%，比上年增長 740 個基點。

Now let me explain why our adjusted operating profit margin was so much better than we had expected. While manufacturing costs did increase year-over-year, the increase was less than we had than anticipated and was the most important factor in the quarter. As we have mentioned, volumes were better than expected due to favorable demand and improvements in the supply chain.

現在讓我解釋一下為什麼我們調整後的營業利潤率比我們預期的要好得多。雖然製造成本確實同比增加，但增幅低於我們的預期，是本季度最重要的因素。正如我們所提到的，由於有利的需求和供應鏈的改善，銷量好於預期。

This help manufacturing cost was both factory efficiency and cost absorption were better than expected. Freight costs were also lower than we had anticipated due to lower premium freight utilization and rate reductions. Material costs were in line with our expectations and did not impact the margin outperformance.

這有助於製造成本降低，工廠效率和成本吸收都好於預期。由於較低的保費貨運利用率和費率降低，貨運成本也低於我們的預期。材料成本符合我們的預期，並未影響利潤率。

In addition to lower manufacturing costs, price realization was also stronger than we had anticipated a quarter ago. Stronger-than-anticipated volume had a smaller beneficial impact on margins. Spend on strategic investments was also lower than expected, as project spend ramps up slower than we had planned.

除了降低製造成本外，價格實現也比我們一個季度前預期的要強勁。強於預期的銷量對利潤率的有利影響較小。戰略投資支出也低於預期，因為項目支出的增長速度低於我們的計劃。

Moving to Slide 11, I'll review segment performance. Starting with Construction Industries, sales increased by 10% in the first quarter to $6.7 billion due to favorable price realization, partially offset by lower sales volume and unfavorable currency impacts.

轉到幻燈片 11，我將回顧細分市場的表現。從建築行業開始，由於有利的價格實現，第一季度銷售額增長 10% 至 67 億美元，部分被較低的銷量和不利的貨幣影響所抵消。

The decrease in sales volume was driven by the impact from changes in dealer inventories, which increased by less in the first quarter of 2023 than compared to the prior year. Compared to our expectations, sales were higher due to stronger volumes.

銷量下降的原因是經銷商庫存變化的影響，經銷商庫存在 2023 年第一季度的增幅低於上年同期。與我們的預期相比，由於銷量增加，銷售額更高。

While sales to end users were as we'd anticipated, the dealer inventory increase was slightly above our expectations.

雖然對最終用戶的銷售符合我們的預期，但經銷商庫存增長略高於我們的預期。

By region, sales in North America rose by 33% due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Supply chain improvements enabled stronger-than-expected shipments in North America, supporting delivery structuring in the region. This is a positive, as North America continues to be our most constrained region from a dealer inventory perspective.

按地區劃分，由於有利的價格實現和更高的銷量，北美的銷售額增長了 33%。供應鏈的改善使北美的出貨量強於預期，支持該地區的交付結構。這是一個積極因素，因為從經銷商庫存的角度來看，北美仍然是我們最受限制的地區。

Sales in Latin America decreased by 4% primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization.

拉丁美洲的銷售額下降了 4%，這主要是由於銷量下降，部分被有利的價格實現所抵消。

In EAME, sales increased by 5% on favorable price realization, partially offset by favorable currency impacts.

在 EAME，由於有利的價格實現，銷售額增長了 5%，部分被有利的貨幣影響所抵消。

Sales in Asia Pacific decreased by 21% primarily due to lower sales volume and unfavorable currency impact, partially offset by favorable price realization.

亞太地區的銷售額下降了 21%，這主要是由於銷量下降和不利的貨幣影響，部分被有利的價格實現所抵消。

First quarter profit for Construction Industries increased by 69% versus the prior year to $1.8 billion. Price realization mainly drove the increase. This was partially offset by lower sales volume, including an unfavorable product mix and higher manufacturing costs.

建築業第一季度利潤比上年增長 69%，達到 18 億美元。價格變現主要推動了增長。這部分被較低的銷量所抵消，包括不利的產品組合和較高的製造成本。

The segment's operating margin of 26.5% was an increase of 920 basis points versus last year. The segment margin for the quarter exceeded our expectations on moderating manufacturing costs and better-than-expected price and volume.

該部門的營業利潤率為 26.5%，比去年增加了 920 個基點。本季度的分部利潤率超出了我們對緩和製造成本以及好於預期的價格和數量的預期。

Manufacturing costs were lower than we had expected on favorable freight, manufacturing efficiencies and absorption. Production volume was more favorable than we had anticipated, which closed the usual favorable benefits margins from the fourth quarter to the first. You will recall that in January, we said we did not expect that to happen.

由於有利的運費、製造效率和吸收，製造成本低於我們的預期。產量比我們預期的要好，從第四季度到第一季度結束了通常有利的利潤率。你會記得在一月份，我們說過我們沒想到會發生這種情況。

Turning to Slide 12. Resource Industries sales grew by 21% in the first quarter to $3.4 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Although aftermarket sales volumes were lower in resource industries due to dealer buying patterns, dealer services to customers remain positive.

轉到幻燈片 12。資源行業的銷售額在第一季度增長了 21%，達到 34 億美元。增長主要是由於有利的價格實現和更高的銷量。儘管由於經銷商購買模式，資源行業的售後市場銷量較低，但經銷商對客戶的服務仍然積極。

First quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 112% versus the prior year to $764 million mainly due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. This was partially offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs.

Resource Industries 的第一季度利潤較上年同期增長 112% 至 7.64 億美元，這主要是由於有利的價格實現和更高的銷量。這部分被不利的製造成本所抵消。

The segment's operating margin of 22.3% was an increase of 950 basis points versus last year. Segment margin was better than we expected due to lower manufacturing costs, including favorable absorption, efficiencies and freight. Price realization and volume benefits also exceeded our expectations.

該部門的營業利潤率為 22.3%，比去年增加了 950 個基點。由於較低的製造成本，包括有利的吸收、效率和運費，部門利潤率好於我們的預期。價格實現和數量效益也超出了我們的預期。

Now on Slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 24% in the first quarter to $6.3 billion, with sales up double digits across all applications. Oil and gas sales increased by 39%, power generation sales by 27%, industrial sales rose by 23%. And finally, transportation sales increased by 14%.

現在在幻燈片 13 上。第一季度能源和運輸銷售額增長 24%，達到 63 億美元，所有應用的銷售額都增長了兩位數。石油和天然氣銷售額增長 39%，發電銷售額增長 27%，工業銷售額增長 23%。最後，運輸銷售額增長了 14%。

First quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 96% versus the prior year to $1.1 billion. The increase was mainly due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume. Unfavorable manufacturing costs and higher SG&A and R&D expenses acted as a partial offset.

能源與運輸業務的第一季度利潤比上年增長 96%，達到 11 億美元。增長主要是由於有利的價格實現和更高的銷量。不利的製造成本和較高的 SG&A 和研發費用起到了部分抵消作用。

SG&A and R&D expenses increased primarily due to investments aligned with our strategic initiatives, including electrification and services growth.

SG&A 和研發費用的增加主要是由於與我們的戰略計劃相一致的投資，包括電氣化和服務增長。

The segment's operating margin of 16.9% was an increase of 620 basis points versus last year, but lower than the fourth quarter as is typical from a seasonality perspective. Compared to our expectations last quarter, margin was better than anticipated on lower manufacturing costs due in part to favorable absorption. Volume was also modestly stronger than we had expected.

該部門的營業利潤率為 16.9%，比去年增加了 620 個基點，但低於第四季度，從季節性角度來看是典型的。與我們上個季度的預期相比，由於吸收良好，製造成本降低，利潤率好於預期。成交量也略高於我們的預期。

Moving to Slide 14. Financial Products revenue increased by 15% to $902 million primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions. Segment profit decreased by 3% to $232 million.

轉到幻燈片 14。金融產品收入增長 15% 至 9.02 億美元，這主要是由於所有地區的平均融資利率較高。分部利潤下降 3% 至 2.32 億美元。

The slight profit decrease was mainly due to unfavorable impacts from equity securities, currency exchange losses and mark-to-market adjustments on derivative contracts. However, higher net yield on average earning assets and lower provision for credit losses acted as a partial offset.

利潤小幅下降主要是由於權益證券、匯兌損失和衍生合約按市值調整的不利影響。然而，較高的平均盈利資產淨收益率和較低的信貸損失準備金起到了部分抵消作用。

Business activity remains strong, and our portfolio continues to perform well. Past dues in the quarter were 2.00%, a 5 basis point improvement compared to the first quarter of 2022. This is the lowest first quarter past dues percentage since 2006. And whilst retail new business volume declined compared to the first quarter of 2022, this was expected as high interest rates drove more cash deals and increased competition from banks.

業務活動依然強勁，我們的投資組合繼續表現良好。本季度的逾期未付率為 2.00%，與 2022 年第一季度相比提高了 5 個基點。這是自 2006 年以來最低的第一季度逾期未付百分比。雖然零售新業務量與 2022 年第一季度相比有所下降，但這由於高利率推動了更多的現金交易並加劇了來自銀行的競爭，這在意料之中。

Finally, we continue to see strong demand for used equipment, as prices remain elevated while used equipment inventory is at historic lows.

最後，我們繼續看到對二手設備的強勁需求，因為價格仍然高企，而二手設備庫存處於歷史低位。

Before I move on, I want to point out that CAT Financial has strong liquidity and broad access to funding. We are funded through the wholesale debt markets rather than from customer deposits, and we match assets and liabilities based on duration, currency and interest rate profile.

在我繼續之前，我想指出 CAT Financial 具有強大的流動性和廣泛的融資渠道。我們通過批發債務市場而不是客戶存款獲得資金，我們根據期限、貨幣和利率狀況來匹配資產和負債。

As we have mentioned previously, in a rising interest rate environment, banks are able to provide more competitive interest rates than Cat Financial, and we tend to lose some share of the machines financed.

正如我們之前提到的，在利率上升的環境下，銀行能夠提供比 Cat Financial 更具競爭力的利率，我們往往會失去部分融資機器的份額。

In the event of a slowdown in lending from regional banks, we are well positioned to step in and fund creditworthy customers, so they can purchase their machines.

如果區域銀行的貸款放緩，我們可以很好地介入並為信譽良好的客戶提供資金，這樣他們就可以購買他們的機器。

Now on Slide 15. We continue to generate strong ME&T free cash flows. ME&T free cash flow of $1.4 billion in the quarter was about a $1.8 billion increase compared to an outflow in the prior year.

現在在幻燈片 15 上。我們繼續產生強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流。本季度 ME&T 自由現金流為 14 億美元，與去年同期的流出相比增加了約 18 億美元。

The increase was primarily driven by higher profit. This increase is notable in the quarter that included our annual short-term incentive payout and a rise in working capital impacted by an increase in Caterpillar inventory.

增長主要是由更高的利潤推動的。這一增長在本季度非常顯著，其中包括我們的年度短期激勵支出以及受 Caterpillar 庫存增加影響的營運資金增加。

As Jim mentioned, following the strong half -- first -- strong first quarter, we expect to end the year in the top half of our ME&T free cash flow range of $4 billion to $8 billion.

正如 Jim 提到的那樣，在強勁的第一季度 - 第一 - 強勁的第一季度之後，我們預計今年將在 40 億美元至 80 億美元的 ME&T 自由現金流範圍的上半部分結束。

CapEx was around $400 million in the quarter, and we still expect to spend around $1.5 billion for the year. As Jim mentioned, capital deployment was about $1 billion in the quarter for dividends and share repurchases.

本季度資本支出約為 4 億美元，我們仍預計全年支出約為 15 億美元。正如吉姆所提到的，本季度用於股息和股票回購的資本配置約為 10 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong, and we have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $6.8 billion.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我們擁有充足的流動性，企業現金餘額為 68 億美元。

Now on Slide 16, I will share some high-level assumptions for the full year, followed by the second quarter. Looking at the full year, we expect a strong top line supported by price and higher sales to users, with healthy underlying end markets.

現在在幻燈片 16 上，我將分享全年的一些高級假設，然後是第二季度。展望全年，我們預計強勁的收入將受到價格和更高的用戶銷售額的支撐，以及健康的基礎終端市場。

As Jim mentioned, we expect full year reported sales for Construction Industries to be impacted by dealer inventory movements, particularly in the second half of the year. Underlying demand remains strong and as we do expect Construction Industries sales to users to show positive growth in the next 3 quarters.

正如吉姆所提到的，我們預計建築行業的全年報告銷售額將受到經銷商庫存變動的影響，尤其是在下半年。潛在需求依然強勁，正如我們所預計的那樣，建築業對用戶的銷售在未來 3 個季度將呈現正增長。

We anticipate continued strength in Resource Industries end markets and stronger end user sales in 2023. In addition, as typical seasonality would suggest, we expect to see some sales ramp in the second half in Energy & Transportation given strong demand for large engines and turbines.

我們預計 2023 年資源行業終端市場和終端用戶銷售將持續走強。此外，正如典型的季節性所表明的那樣，鑑於對大型發動機和渦輪機的強勁需求，我們預計下半年能源和交通領域的銷售將有所增長。

Moving on to margins. Based on our current planning assumptions, we anticipate full year adjusted operating profit margins to be in the top half of our target range. Given the favorable impact of cost absorption in the first quarter, which we do not expect to recur, we anticipate margins in the remaining quarters of the year will be lower than the first quarter level, while underlying demand and end markets remain strong.

繼續討論利潤率。根據我們目前的規劃假設，我們預計全年調整後的營業利潤率將處於我們目標範圍的上半部分。鑑於第一季度成本吸收的有利影響（我們預計不會再次出現），我們預計今年剩餘季度的利潤率將低於第一季度水平，而基礎需求和終端市場依然強勁。

Also despite the slower-than-expected start, we anticipate the spend related to strategic investments within SG&A and R&D will ramp through the year. We expect price to continue to be favorable, although the absolute dollar value of the year-over-year price increases will moderate as we lap through the increases put through in 2022.

此外，儘管開局速度慢於預期，但我們預計與 SG&A 和 R&D 內的戰略投資相關的支出將在今年增加。我們預計價格將繼續有利，儘管隨著我們逐步完成 2022 年的漲幅，同比價格漲幅的絕對美元價值將會放緩。

We also expect the relationship between price and manufacturing costs for machines to normalize as the year progresses, as we've now caught up to the manufacturing cost increases, which have outpaced price in late 2021 and early 2022. This means that the benefit to margins of price outpacing manufacturing cost inflation will moderate tempering the possibility of further margin expansion.

我們還預計機器的價格和製造成本之間的關係會隨著時間的推移而正常化，因為我們現在已經趕上了製造成本的增長，而製造成本的增長在 2021 年底和 2022 年初已經超過了價格。這意味著利潤率的提高價格漲幅超過製造成本通脹將適度緩和利潤率進一步擴大的可能性。

Keep in mind, similar to the first quarter, we still anticipate a headwind of about $80 million per quarter at the corporate level related to pension expense. We also continue to anticipate restructuring expenses of around $700 million this year, with around $100 million remaining following the first quarter. And the global effective tax rate should be around 23%, excluding discrete items.

請記住，與第一季度類似，我們仍然預計在企業層面與養老金支出相關的逆風每季度約為 8000 萬美元。我們還繼續預計今年的重組費用約為 7 億美元，第一季度後剩餘約 1 億美元。全球有效稅率應該在23%左右，不包括離散項目。

Now on to our assumptions for the second quarter. We expect higher sales in the second quarter compared to the prior year on strong sales to users and price. Following the typical seasonal pattern, we expect higher sales in the second quarter as compared to the first.

現在談談我們對第二季度的假設。由於對用戶的強勁銷售和價格，我們預計第二季度的銷售額將高於去年同期。按照典型的季節性模式，我們預計第二季度的銷售額將高於第一季度。

We expect Energy & Transportation sales will accelerate given strong sales to users, which are supported by healthy demand. We expect to report flattish sales levels compared to the first quarter in Construction Industries and Resource Industries. Both segments are expected to report positive sales to users.

我們預計能源和交通銷售將加速，因為在健康需求的支持下，對用戶的銷售強勁。與建築行業和資源行業的第一季度相比，我們預計報告的銷售水平持平。預計這兩個部門都將向用戶報告積極的銷售情況。

In the second quarter of 2022, we saw a decrease in deal inventory of $400 million. We expect a smaller decrease in the second quarter of 2023. Specific to second quarter margins versus the prior year, adjusted operating margins at the enterprise and segment level should be substantially stronger than the prior year on favorable price and volume. However, we do expect to see a return to the typical seasonal pattern of lower second quarter margins compared to the first quarter, despite higher sales.

2022 年第二季度，我們看到交易庫存減少了 4 億美元。我們預計 2023 年第二季度的降幅較小。具體到第二季度與上一年相比的利潤率，在有利的價格和數量下，企業和細分市場層面調整後的營業利潤率應大大高於上一年。然而，我們確實預計會看到第二季度利潤率低於第一季度的典型季節性模式，儘管銷售額有所增加。

We expect the year-over-year benefit of price realization in the second quarter to moderate compared to the benefit we saw in the first quarter, as we lapped prior year increases.

我們預計第二季度價格實現的同比收益與我們在第一季度看到的收益相比有所緩和，因為我們超越了去年的增長。

In addition, SG&A and R&D investment spend should increase, as we continue to accelerate our strategic investments in areas like autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity, digital and electrification.

此外，隨著我們繼續加快在自治、替代燃料、連通性、數字和電氣化等領域的戰略投資，SG&A 和研發投資支出應該會增加。

Finally, we do not anticipate that the favorable absorption impact that we saw in the first quarter will be repeated. At the segment level, in Construction Industries, we expect lower second quarter margins compared to the first quarter largely due to the lack of a favorable impact from absorption and a ramp-up in strategic investment spend.

最後，我們預計我們在第一季度看到的有利吸收影響不會重演。在細分市場層面，在建築行業，我們預計第二季度的利潤率將低於第一季度，這主要是由於吸收和戰略投資支出的增加缺乏有利影響。

Likewise, second quarter margins in Resource Industries were likely to be lower than the first quarter as is the typical seasonal pattern. Conversely, Energy & Transportation should see a slight margin improvement compared to the first quarter levels, supported by stronger sales volume as demand remains healthy.

同樣，資源行業第二季度的利潤率可能低於第一季度，這是典型的季節性模式。相反，與第一季度水平相比，能源和運輸行業的利潤率應該會略有改善，這得益於需求保持健康而銷量增加。

Now turning to Slide 17, let me summarize. Sales grew by 17% led by strong price realization and volume gains. The adjusted operating profit margin increased by 740 basis points to 21.1%.

現在轉到幻燈片 17，讓我總結一下。在強勁的價格實現和銷量增長的帶動下，銷售額增長了 17%。調整後的營業利潤率增加了 740 個基點，達到 21.1%。

ME&T free cash flow was strong at $1.4 billion, and we expect to be at the top half of our ME&T free cash flow range of $4 billion to $8 billion for the full year.

ME&T 自由現金流量強勁，達到 14 億美元，我們預計全年 ME&T 自由現金流量將達到 40 億至 80 億美元的上半部分。

After a strong first quarter, we currently expect our 2023 adjusted operating profit margins will be in the top half of our target range.

在第一季度表現強勁之後，我們目前預計 2023 年調整後的營業利潤率將處於目標範圍的上半部分。

The environment remains positive with improving supply chain dynamics, a strong backlog and healthy underlying end markets. We will continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth. And with that, we'll take your questions.

隨著供應鏈動態的改善、大量積壓和健康的潛在終端市場，環境仍然是積極的。我們將繼續執行我們的長期盈利增長戰略。有了這個，我們會回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Rob Wertheimer 與 Melius Research 的合作。

My question is really on North American construction, where -- I'm curious whether your end users have seen infrastructure dollars starting to flow have started to make orders based on that, whether your dealers make orders in anticipation of that or whether a lot of that is still ahead. So I'll stop there.

我的問題實際上是關於北美建築的，在那裡——我很好奇你的最終用戶是否已經看到基礎設施資金開始流動並開始基於此下訂單，你的經銷商是否在預期中下訂單，或者是否有很多那還在前面。所以我就到此為止。

Yes. Rob, we have seen some positive impact of those infrastructure dollars start to flow. The projects that don't require a lot of permitting, things like of reservicing roads, that kind of activity has already started, and we're seeing a positive benefit of that.

是的。 Rob，我們已經看到這些基礎設施資金開始流動的一些積極影響。不需要大量許可的項目，比如道路預留，這類活動已經開始，我們看到了積極的好處。

And one of the things, of course, when customers believe there's a pipeline of projects coming, they're more likely typically to make that capital investment to make a purchase of a piece of new equipment. But yes, it has started, and we expect it to continue for some time.

當然，其中一件事是，當客戶相信有一系列項目即將到來時，他們通常更有可能進行資本投資以購買一件新設備。但是，是的，它已經開始了，我們預計它會持續一段時間。

Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

Just to clarify the operating margin expectation for the year, I think you said you're expecting it to be at the top half of the target range.

只是為了澄清今年的營業利潤率預期，我想你說過你預計它會在目標範圍的上半部分。

So can you remind us what that range exactly is? Are we talking about the 18% to 21% that we saw in the prior quarter's presentation? What exactly is that range you're talking about?

那麼你能提醒我們這個範圍到底是多少嗎？我們是在談論我們在上一季度的演示中看到的 18% 到 21% 嗎？你說的那個範圍到底是多少？

Yes. So Tami, to be clear, and I realized as we were saying it, they could be interpreted in 2 ways. One, which is could it be the 10% to 21% range. No, that is not what we're referring to.

是的。所以塔米，要清楚，當我們說的時候我意識到，它們可以用兩種方式來解釋。一，它可以是 10% 到 21% 的範圍嗎？不，那不是我們指的。

If you remember, we have a range of a 3% range based on different levels of sales revenues -- and revenues. That is where we're talking about. So for example, if you're assuming a certain level of revenues, if you remember the graph we produced, we've given you that will show a margin range. We expect to be in the top half of that 3% range at that level of sales revenues for the year.

如果你還記得的話，我們根據不同的銷售收入水平和收入有一個 3% 的範圍。這就是我們正在談論的地方。因此，例如，如果您假設一定的收入水平，如果您還記得我們製作的圖表，我們已經為您提供了一個顯示利潤率範圍的圖表。我們預計今年的銷售收入水平將處於 3% 範圍的上半部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Feniger with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

The market is worried about dealer destocking and the impact to construction margins. In prior cycles, margins came under heavy pressure when there was a big destocking event.

市場擔心經銷商去庫存及其對建築利潤率的影響。在之前的周期中，當發生大規模去庫存事件時，利潤率會承受巨大壓力。

Is there anything different in terms of how CAT is managing its production, your strong pricing dynamic, inventory management with you and your dealers that we should be thinking about this cycle compared to prior cycles?

在 CAT 如何管理其生產、您強大的定價動態、您和您的經銷商的庫存管理方面，與之前的周期相比，我們應該考慮這個週期有什麼不同嗎？

Yes. So certainly, one of the things we've done is worked hard on our S&OP process over the last few years to really minimize the impact of that kind of an issue. .

是的。因此，當然，我們所做的其中一件事就是在過去幾年中努力改進我們的 S&OP 流程，以真正最大限度地減少此類問題的影響。 .

Firstly, to keep in mind, the way we are -- the market is positioned now, we have strong sales to users, and we feel good about the underlying demand in our end markets. So I'll start with that. During a period of supply constraints, which really has occurred because of all the issues you're aware of during the last few years, it's not unusual for us to have dealers ordering a bit more, and they couldn't really get the kind of dealer inventory that they would like to have.

首先，要記住我們的方式——市場現在的定位，我們對用戶的銷售強勁，我們對終端市場的潛在需求感到滿意。所以我將從那個開始。在供應受限的時期，由於過去幾年你所知道的所有問題，供應受限確實發生了，經銷商訂購多一點對我們來說並不罕見，但他們無法真正得到那種他們希望擁有的經銷商庫存。

They've been able with some easing in supply chain, although we still have periods -- areas of real constraint. They have been able to start to increase do their inventory. Having said that, we have talked about the fact that we expect dealer inventory to end the year about flat as to where it ended in 2022 and expect a slight decrease during the year.

他們已經能夠在供應鏈方面有所放鬆，儘管我們仍然有一段時間——真正受限的領域。他們已經能夠開始增加庫存。話雖如此，我們已經談到了這樣一個事實，即我們預計經銷商庫存將在年底與 2022 年結束時持平，並預計年內會略有下降。

But again, with our S&OP process, the way we look at that now, the way we work with our dealers, we're comfortable in that process that we've really improved it.

但同樣，通過我們的 S&OP 流程，我們現在看待它的方式，我們與經銷商合作的方式，我們對這個流程感到滿意，因為我們確實改進了它。

Yes. And let me just add, because, obviously, one of the concerns -- we talk about dealer inventory in terms of the global dealer inventory number where we talk about the 3 to 4 months. There are some areas with some products, which are actually below the bottom end of that range.

是的。讓我補充一下，因為很明顯，其中一個擔憂——我們根據全球經銷商庫存數量來談論經銷商庫存，我們談論的是 3 到 4 個月。有些地區有一些產品，實際上低於該範圍的底端。

And so we do not see at this stage anywhere apart from potentially with excavation where there is actually any level of stocking, which even gets close to the top end of that range. So it's really -- you have to look at it product by product.

因此，在這個階段，除了潛在的挖掘之外，我們看不到任何地方實際上有任何庫存水平，甚至接近該範圍的頂端。所以它真的 - 你必須逐個產品地看它。

And again, just to remind you that last year's build in dealer inventory, 60% of that related to RI and to Energy & Transportation, of which 70% of that -- more than 70% of that is covered by firm customer orders.

再次提醒您，去年經銷商庫存的增加，其中 60% 與 RI 和能源與運輸相關，其中 70% - 其中超過 70% 由確定的客戶訂單覆蓋。

This is -- I think, with respect a little bit misunderstood by the market. We are not in a situation where we are allowing or expecting dealer inventory to become a headwind for us at any time in the next few quarters.

這是 - 我認為，尊重市場有點誤解。在未來幾個季度的任何時候，我們都不會允許或期望經銷商庫存成為我們的逆風。

And dealer inventory is within a typical range of 3 to 4 months. And again, we have strong market conditions.

經銷商庫存在 3 到 4 個月的典型範圍內。再一次，我們有強大的市場條件。

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

Congratulations on a nice quarter. I guess, my question, Jim, just the market, I think, is going to be worried at the performance this quarter is backward-looking. So can you like speak to how you're thinking about backlog or book-to-bill in the back half of the year?

祝賀一個不錯的季度。我想，我的問題，吉姆，我認為市場會擔心本季度的表現是倒退的。那麼，您能否談談您是如何考慮下半年的積壓訂單或訂單到賬單的？

Can that continue to be positive? Do you think backlog will be higher at the end of this year versus where we were this quarter?

這能繼續積極嗎？您認為與本季度相比，今年年底的積壓會更高嗎？

And then just my second question, Andrew, on the margins, can you talk to margins in the back half of the second half versus first half? Just trying to understand how much lower the margins would be in the second half and what's being weighed down by strategic investment.

然後是我的第二個問題，安德魯，關於邊緣，你能談談下半場後半場和上半場的邊緣嗎？只是想了解下半年的利潤率會低多少，以及戰略投資會拖累什麼。

Yes. Certainly, Jamie. First to answer your first question on backlog, we are encouraged by the very strong backlog that we had. It's flat compared to last quarter, but it's at a very healthy level. Again, we have a healthy level of demand as well.

是的。當然，傑米。首先回答你關於積壓的第一個問題，我們對我們擁有的非常強大的積壓感到鼓舞。與上一季度相比持平，但處於非常健康的水平。同樣，我們也有健康的需求水平。

As I mentioned earlier, our -- some supply chain constraints have started to ease. And when, in fact, availability improves, dealers often wait a bit longer to place orders for new equipment, and that is part of what happens.

正如我之前提到的，我們的一些供應鏈限制已經開始緩解。事實上，當可用性提高時，經銷商通常會等待更長的時間來下訂單購買新設備，這就是所發生的事情的一部分。

But again, oil and gas is strong. We have -- I mentioned earlier that our solar turbines business is strong, Cat Oil and gas is strong. But again, we feel good about the market conditions, and the backlog reflects that.

但同樣，石油和天然氣很強勁。我們有——我之前提到我們的太陽能渦輪機業務很強大，卡特彼勒石油和天然氣業務很強大。但同樣，我們對市場狀況感覺良好，積壓反映了這一點。

Yes. And again, just to add to that before talking about margins, just a reminder, backlog is one of the metrics we look at -- to look at where we think about demand is a demand signal. It really does often reflect availability from -- and therefore, often there's one part of that equation. Other things we look at is [SUS] Order rates and also our conversations with dealers, which give us optimism rather than just purely focusing on the backlog per se.

是的。再一次，在談論利潤率之前補充一點，只是提醒一下，積壓是我們關注的指標之一——看看我們認為需求在哪裡是一個需求信號。它確實經常反映可用性——因此，通常只有一個等式的一部分。我們關注的其他事情是 [SUS] 訂單率以及我們與經銷商的對話，這讓我們感到樂觀，而不是僅僅專注於積壓本身。

With regards to margins, as we said, in the second half, you would normally see we're probably returning more to a more typical pattern within construction. We didn't expect that. If you remember last in January, we didn't expect to see the normal increase from the fourth quarter to the first.

關於利潤率，正如我們所說，在下半年，您通常會看到我們可能更多地回歸到建築業中更典型的模式。我們沒想到。如果你還記得去年 1 月，我們沒想到會看到從第四季度到第一季度的正常增長。

We did. We would not expect to see the normal pattern of margins being declining as we go through the year. That's a function of production. Obviously, as the year progresses, we produce less, which impacts on absorption, in particular, and also factory efficiencies.

我們做到了。我們不希望看到正常的利潤率模式在我們度過這一年時下降。這是生產的功能。顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們的產量會減少，這尤其會影響吸收，也會影響工廠效率。

Within RI, that tends to bounce around a little bit more and obviously is impacted by the level of sales and revenues. And in E&T, we expect margins actually will progress as we go through the year as per the normal pattern.

在 RI 中，這往往會稍微反彈一點，並且顯然受到銷售和收入水平的影響。在 E&T 中，我們預計利潤率實際上會隨著我們按照正常模式度過這一年而進步。

Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Raso。

First, just a clarification. When you speak to the second half of dealer inventory destocking, I know it moves around a bit year-to-year, but isn't the historical pattern that the dealers do take inventory down in the second half of the year, roughly about $1 billion?

首先，澄清一下。當你談到下半年經銷商庫存去庫存時，我知道它每年都在移動，但這不是經銷商在今年下半年減少庫存的歷史模式，大約在 1 美元左右十億？

Just making sure I understand the commentary that it's a destock versus there's some normal seasonality to it. I know you hinted excavators, if that really might be a destock. I know it's really hard to get dozers right now to Brazil. So I'm just trying to understand. Is it a destock? Or is it sort of normal seasonality first? But then I have a different question. It's a clarification on that.

只要確保我理解評論，即它是去庫存，而不是它有一些正常的季節性。我知道你暗示挖掘機，如果那真的可能是去庫存的話。我知道現在很難把推土機運到巴西。所以我只是想了解。是去庫存嗎？還是首先是正常的季節性？但後來我有一個不同的問題。這是對此的澄清。

Yes. So just to clarify, David, obviously, versus last year where we saw an increase. So remind you, there's a $700 million increase in both the third and the fourth quarter. We would expect to decrease this year.

是的。所以，為了澄清，大衛，顯然，與去年我們看到的增長相比。所以提醒你，第三季度和第四季度都增加了 7 億美元。我們預計今年會減少。

Yes, it's not unseasonable, but it is a decrease versus the year-over-year. So just that does create a gap between overall. So that's part of the reason we're just highlighting it now just to remind everybody.

是的，這並非不合時宜，但與去年同期相比有所下降。所以這確實在整體之間造成了差距。所以這就是我們現在強調它只是為了提醒大家的部分原因。

Yes, there's a normal spring selling season. Sorry, David, you exactly right.

是的，有一個正常的春季銷售季節。對不起，大衛，你完全正確。

Yes. Okay. That sort of wasn't something unique the behavioral pattern is to take it down in the second half, but...

是的。好的。這並不是什麼獨特的行為模式是在下半場將其擊倒，但是......

Yes, correct. Correct.

是，對的。正確的。

Real simple question, '24, I know lead times in some areas are getting better, some are still challenged. But it does appear the dealers are willing to order a little earlier for next year than a normal at this time of the year ordering for next year. Just any early signs you have on order books for '24, I think would be very helpful.

真正簡單的問題，'24，我知道某些領域的交貨時間越來越好，有些仍然面臨挑戰。但看起來經銷商確實願意為明年訂購比每年這個時候訂購明年的正常訂購時間早一點。只要你在 24 年的訂單簿上有任何早期跡象，我認為都會非常有幫助。

Yes. It is still too early to certainly predict 2024. As I mentioned, because availability is improving, that gives dealers the opportunity for some products to wait a bit longer when they place their orders. And that's not the case for every product. But it is really make a call on 2024. .

是的。現在肯定預測 2024 年還為時過早。正如我所提到的，由於可用性正在提高，這使經銷商有機會在下訂單時等待更長時間的某些產品。並非每種產品都是如此。但它真的是在2024年打電話。。

Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自 Jerry Revich 與高盛的合作。

I'm wondering if you could just talk about the margins for you folks are now at the high end of your framework range and supply chain performance. Looks like it's improving from here and for the rest of the industry. The margins are at the very high end of their ranges as well.

我想知道你是否可以談談你們現在處於框架範圍和供應鏈績效高端的利潤。看起來它正在從這里和整個行業中得到改善。利潤率也處於其範圍的高端。

How do you think about the risk of pricing concessions for the industry from here, as supply improves further? Obviously, we haven't seen discounting from you folks in the past, but I'm wondering if you can talk about it if this cycle is different at all given just the more complexity.

隨著供應的進一步改善，您如何看待從這裡開始對行業進行定價優惠的風險？顯然，過去我們沒有看到你們打折，但我想知道如果這個週期完全不同，只是考慮到更複雜，你們是否可以談談這個問題。

Yes. Of course, as you know, we serve a variety of industries, and there's -- it's not a one size fits all. So we look very carefully at the market conditions and the competitive situation for each product that we sell into the various markets that we have.

是的。當然，如您所知，我們服務於各種行業，而且 - 它不是一個適合所有人的尺寸。因此，我們非常仔細地研究我們銷售到我們擁有的各個市場的每種產品的市場狀況和競爭情況。

Certainly, in some areas, product is still constrained, and it's still quite challenging to get product. And in others, as we mentioned, like an excavation, there is more availability. So that has an impact as well.

當然，在某些地區，產品仍然受到限制，並且獲得產品仍然非常具有挑戰性。而在其他方面，正如我們提到的，比如挖掘，有更多的可用性。所以這也有影響。

But really, what we do is, as you can imagine, look at -- we always take into account our cost inputs, and then we look at the competitive situation for each product in each market, and we make a decision based on that.

但實際上，正如您可以想像的那樣，我們所做的是 - 我們始終考慮我們的成本投入，然後我們查看每個市場中每種產品的競爭情況，並據此做出決定。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

I wanted to go back, Jim, I think I heard you say that you thought North American commercial construction was like 1% of CI. Correct me if I got that wrong, but it made me wonder what you think really the key drivers are of that business, so that we can sort of monitor those going forward?

我想回去，吉姆，我想我聽到你說你認為北美商業建築就像 CI 的 1%。如果我說錯了，請糾正我，但這讓我想知道您認為該業務的真正關鍵驅動因素是什麼，以便我們可以對未來的發展進行某種程度的監控？

What are the key drivers of commercial construction?

商業建築的主要驅動力是什麼？

No, I'm sorry, I understand -- if commercial is only 1% of CI, what's the other 99%?

不，對不起，我明白——如果商業廣告只佔 CI 的 1%，那麼其他 99% 是什麼？

Yes. So we talk a lot about nonresidential, and we've talked about the fact that we are quite encouraged by legislation that has passed, whether it's IIJA, the chips act , the IRA.

是的。所以我們談論了很多關於非住宅的話題，我們談到了這樣一個事實，即我們對已經通過的立法感到非常鼓舞，無論是 IIJA、籌碼法案還是 IRA。

So again, looking at that activity that's being supported by that legislation, we feel good about residential in North America. One of the things we wanted to do was because there had been a lot of commentary, frankly, about commercial real estate, we wanted to just clarify that it's a very small portion of CI because it seems to be getting a lot more play than it deserved, quite frankly.

因此，再次看看該立法支持的活動，我們對北美的住宅感覺良好。我們想做的一件事是因為有很多關於商業地產的評論，坦率地說，我們只想澄清它只是 CI 的一小部分，因為它似乎比它得到了更多的發揮坦率地說，當之無愧。

Yes. And sorry, just I want to clarify one point that I responded to in question that dealer, yes there will be dealer inventory destocking occurring in the second half of the year, but it will not impact us.

是的。抱歉，我只是想澄清一點，我在經銷商的問題中回答過，是的，下半年會有經銷商庫存去庫存，但這不會影響我們。

We will still see positive sales momentum in those quarters. So it does not have an impact where it takes us down year-over-year at any point in time in the next few quarters. Just to clarify that.

我們仍將在這些季度看到積極的銷售勢頭。因此，它不會影響我們在接下來幾個季度的任何時間點同比下降。只是為了澄清這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自 Chad Dillard 與 Bernstein 的對話。

A couple of questions. So first, can you comment on your lead times in construction today versus 6 months ago? And then can you just clarify your comments about the second half?

幾個問題。那麼首先，您能否評論一下您今天與 6 個月前相比的施工交貨時間？然後你能澄清一下你對下半場的評論嗎？

You talked about destocking and factory maintenance. Does that mean that 3Q and 4Q will be least only weaker than normal on a sequential basis?

你談到了去庫存和工廠維護。這是否意味著第 3 季度和第 4 季度將至少僅比正常情況更弱？

Yes. So lead times -- so because of easing supply chain constraints in some areas, lead times have improved. We still really have challenges in certain areas. Earth moving is a great example.

是的。所以交貨時間 - 由於某些地區供應鏈限制的放鬆，交貨時間有所改善。我們在某些領域仍然面臨挑戰。地球移動就是一個很好的例子。

We have challenges around availability and lead times around some BCP products as well. Excavation, as I mentioned earlier, has in fact eased. But we are making some changes in factory changes in the second half.

我們在某些 BCP 產品的可用性和交貨時間方面也面臨挑戰。正如我之前提到的，挖掘實際上已經有所緩解。但是我們在下半年在工廠的變化上做一些改變。

Actually, we're going from a third-party engine to a Caterpillar engine and some products. So as we make that change over, that will, in fact, have a bit of an impact on production. And it's obviously temporary, and it's a positive thing for us long term to get our own engines in those products. So we'll be making that change later in the year.

實際上，我們正在從第三方引擎轉向 Caterpillar 引擎和一些產品。因此，當我們進行更改時，實際上會對生產產生一些影響。這顯然是暫時的，從長遠來看，在這些產品中使用我們自己的引擎對我們來說是一件好事。所以我們將在今年晚些時候做出改變。

Yes. I mean -- and obviously. Sorry, carry on.

是的。我的意思是 - 顯然。對不起，繼續。

Yes, I was going to -- can you just clarify your comment about the second half you talked about destocking some maintenance in the second half? So I just want to know, does that mean that 3Q and 4Q will be seasonally weaker than the normal on a sequential basis?.

是的，我打算 - 你能澄清一下你對下半年你談到在下半年減少一些維護庫存的評論嗎？所以我只想知道，這是否意味著第 3 季度和第 4 季度的季節性會比正常情況更弱？

Yes, back to the comment of this I said to David earlier, we did have inventory builds in the third and fourth quarters of last year. So you're running against a comparative, which has a build versus a decrease. So year-over-year, that does impact what would be the normal seasonal pattern.

是的，回到我早些時候對大衛說的評論，我們在去年第三和第四季度確實有庫存增加。所以你正在與一個比較對象競爭，它有一個構建與一個減少。因此，年復一年，這確實會影響正常的季節性模式。

Obviously, While other factors coming to that price and also what underlying volume demand is, but that will have an impact on our reported sales in those quarters. So we're just highlighting that, so that as you think about your models, you don't build the normal seasonable pattern into those models as you look out for the next several quarters.

顯然，雖然其他因素會影響該價格以及潛在的銷量需求，但這將對我們在這些季度報告的銷售額產生影響。所以我們只是強調這一點，所以當你考慮你的模型時，你不會在接下來的幾個季度中將正常的季節性模式構建到這些模型中。

Your next question comes from the line of John Joyner with BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John Joyner。

And sorry to ask another question about the dealer stocks. But I guess, if demand and sales to end users have stayed strong, and inventories are not elevated, why would there be dealer destocking and not some restocking? I mean does it possibly imply a bit of hesitation among dealers when looking ahead?

很抱歉再問一個關於經銷商庫存的問題。但我想，如果終端用戶的需求和銷售保持強勁，庫存沒有增加，為什麼經銷商會去庫存而不是補充庫存？我的意思是，這可能意味著經銷商在展望未來時有些猶豫嗎？

I don't believe that's the case. And again, as I mentioned, as availability improves and lead times decrease due to easing supply chain challenges, it's not unusual. And we looked in the past, it's not unusual for dealers took to -- they can wait longer to place orders, and they need a bit less in inventory because we can respond more quickly. So it's not surprising to have that happen.

我不相信是這樣。再一次，正如我提到的，由於供應鏈挑戰的緩解，可用性提高了，交貨時間縮短了，這並不罕見。我們回顧過去，經銷商採取這種做法並不罕見——他們可以等待更長的時間來下訂單，而且他們需要的庫存更少，因為我們可以更快地做出反應。所以發生這種情況並不奇怪。

And also, if you recall, we've talked about the new sales and operations planning process and one of the things we're trying to avoid through that process is dealers holding more inventory than is really necessary.

而且，如果您還記得的話，我們已經討論了新的銷售和運營計劃流程，我們試圖通過該流程避免的事情之一是經銷商持有比真正必要的庫存更多的庫存。

They are independent businesses. They make their own decisions of our inventory, but we try to work with them to avoid any overstocking, which then has an impact when we later on where you have to destock. So we're trying just to be more proactive in that regard than we have been historically.

他們是獨立的企業。他們對我們的庫存做出自己的決定，但我們會嘗試與他們合作以避免任何庫存積壓，這會對我們以後必須去庫存的地方產生影響。因此，我們正努力在這方面比以往更加積極主動。

And again, when we can respond more quickly to do their orders. The newish feel comfortable holding a bit less inventory.

再一次，當我們可以更快地響應他們的命令時。新手感覺持有較少的庫存很舒服。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with TD Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Matt Elkott 和 TD Cowen。

So I know the backlog was unchanged. But how has the timing of the backlog changed? I mean, does it go out further? Did any orders get pushed out because of all the macro uncertainty? And did you have -- you guys have any major cancellations that were offset by new orders?

所以我知道積壓沒有改變。但是積壓的時間發生了怎樣的變化？我的意思是，它會走得更遠嗎？由於所有的宏觀不確定性，是否有任何訂單被推遲？你們有沒有——你們有任何被新訂單抵消的重大取消？

No, we have not seen any major cancellations, and we feel quite good about the quality of the backlog that we have. Of course, much of it is for solar turbines, for oil and gas, for mining.

不，我們沒有看到任何重大取消，我們對我們的積壓工作的質量感到非常滿意。當然，其中大部分用於太陽能渦輪機、石油和天然氣以及採礦業。

So again, we feel quite good about the quality of that backlog, and we haven't seen major cancellations.

因此，我們再次對積壓的質量感到非常滿意，而且我們還沒有看到重大取消。

Your next question comes from the line of Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

你的下一個問題來自 Kristen Owen 和 Oppenheimer 的對話。

I'm going to switch it up here a little bit and ask you to talk about the NMG announcement that you recently made for the 0 emission fleet. Looks like that includes some related infrastructure. So just a couple of pointed questions there.

我要在這裡稍微改變一下，請你談談你最近為零排放艦隊所做的 NMG 公告。看起來這包括一些相關的基礎設施。所以這裡只有幾個尖銳的問題。

First, how do you see the rollout progression of a product -- a project like this? And then second, how should we think about this in terms of a blueprint for future mine site decarbonization opportunities? Like how do you price for that? How do you think about packaging that sort of deal?

首先，您如何看待產品的推出進度——像這樣的項目？其次，我們應該如何根據未來礦區脫碳機會的藍圖來考慮這一點？比如你如何定價？你如何看待打包這種交易？

Yes. So certainly, we've had a number of requests from many of our mining customers, and NMG is one of them to help them decarbonize their operations. And so we are working with NMG specifically to help to provide battery powered machines to allow them to execute that project.

是的。因此，當然，我們已經收到了許多采礦客戶的許多請求，而 NMG 就是其中之一，希望幫助他們實現脫碳運營。因此，我們正在與 NMG 合作，專門幫助提供電池供電的機器，讓他們能夠執行該項目。

So again, it's a collaborative process. We're working closely with them. We're working through commercial issues with them. But again, we feel quite good about where we are. We demonstrated in November to a number of our customers a fully loaded battery-powered -- large mining truck operating in diesel power performance in terms of speed, fully loaded -- on the flat going up the hill. So again, we feel good about where we are. But it is a process. So it's a multiyear process that working with our customers.

同樣，這是一個協作過程。我們正在與他們密切合作。我們正在與他們一起解決商業問題。但同樣，我們對自己所處的位置感到非常滿意。我們在 11 月向我們的許多客戶展示了一輛滿載電池供電的大型礦用卡車，在速度、滿載的情況下以柴油動力運行，在平坦的山坡上行駛。因此，我們再次對自己所處的位置感覺良好。但這是一個過程。因此，與我們的客戶合作是一個多年的過程。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Tim Thein。

The other question just on this -- the improvement, whatever improvement you are seeing in the supply chain and a little bit better visibility and thus your ability to react faster, how does that -- Andrew, how do we think about that, the interplay with that as we go through the year and Cat's own inventory?

關於這個的另一個問題——改進，你在供應鏈中看到的任何改進，以及更好的可見性，因此你的反應速度更快的能力，這是怎麼回事——安德魯，我們如何看待這一點，相互作用隨著我們經歷這一年和 Cat 自己的庫存？

And I know there's some -- there's been flattered somewhat probably by inflation and other factors. But -- and just thinking of that impact as you go through the year and, ultimately, the impact from an absorption standpoint, if, in fact, we start working that down.

而且我知道有一些 - 可能受到通貨膨脹和其他因素的影響。但是 - 想想你經歷這一年的影響，最終，從吸收的角度來看影響，如果我們開始努力的話。

Yes. So obviously, some of our assumptions are that we do not expect the absorption impact to continue. And obviously, yes, some of that will reverse as we move our product out of the plant into the dealer channel, and that's forecasted within our expectations for margins as we go through the remainder of the year.

是的。很明顯，我們的一些假設是我們預計吸收影響不會持續。顯然，是的，當我們將產品從工廠轉移到經銷商渠道時，其中一些將會逆轉，並且在我們今年剩餘時間裡，這在我們對利潤率的預期範圍內進行了預測。

The other factor, obviously, to take into account is the potential benefit to cash flow. As we've said, we did see a very strong free cash flow in the first quarter, despite an increase in Caterpillar inventory.

顯然，要考慮的另一個因素是現金流的潛在好處。正如我們所說，儘管卡特彼勒庫存有所增加，但我們確實在第一季度看到了非常強勁的自由現金流。

Obviously, over time, we expect, as the supply chain improves, to start working that inventory down and start to see a full benefit of that from a cash perspective and converting that back into cash. So that is part of the reason why we're expecting obviously strong cash flow as we go through the remainder of the year.

顯然，隨著時間的推移，隨著供應鏈的改善，我們預計會開始減少庫存，並開始從現金的角度看到它的全部好處，並將其轉化為現金。因此，這就是我們預計在今年剩餘時間裡現金流明顯強勁的部分原因。

Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 與 Baird 的合作。

Jim, I appreciate your comment earlier about taking a proactive approach to sort of managing this dealer inventory dynamic. But I'm sort of curious here, as you look at the last, call it, 18 months to 2 years, do you get a sense that there's been some ordering on a part of dealers that was just a reaction to elongated lead times, and that those sort of patterns are subject. Do you see some pretty meaningful shifts now that your lead times in the supply chain are getting better?

吉姆，我感謝您早些時候關於採取積極主動的方法來管理經銷商庫存動態的評論。但我在這裡有點好奇，當你看最後一個，稱之為 18 個月到 2 年時，你是否感覺到部分經銷商的一些訂單只是對延長交貨時間的反應，並且這些模式是主題。既然您在供應鏈中的交貨時間越來越好，您是否看到一些非常有意義的轉變？

And as you -- as the year progresses, if It's the destock that you're expecting sort of fails to materialize at the pace that you're anticipating, are we to understand here that you're going to take a proactive approach to adjusting production in the back half of this year?

隨著你 - 隨著時間的推移，如果你所期望的去庫存未能以你預期的速度實現，我們是否在這裡理解你將採取積極主動的方法進行調整今年下半年投產？

Yes. So Mig, it's Andrew. Let me just try and reiterate again what we do within our sales and operations planning process is we work closely with the dealers to understand what the level of orders.

是的。米格，是安德魯。讓我再次嘗試重申我們在銷售和運營規劃過程中所做的是我們與經銷商密切合作以了解訂單水平。

We use machine learning to try and understand what we think the actual real order rate is based on customer demand versus speculative demand. So one of the things that does do is we obviously don't accept orders for what we would call speculative demand.

我們使用機器學習來嘗試了解我們認為實際實際訂單率是基於客戶需求還是投機需求。因此，確實要做的事情之一就是我們顯然不接受我們稱之為投機需求的訂單。

That helps us try to manage production. Obviously, the focus for us is to manage production as smoothly as possible over time because that's the most efficient and effective way of doing it. Obviously, as we think about the remainder of the year, and we're looking at inventory and we're looking at the outlook for the year, just to remind you, we still expect end-user demand to be positive for the remainder of the year.

這有助於我們嘗試管理生產。顯然，我們的重點是隨著時間的推移盡可能順利地管理生產，因為這是最有效的方法。顯然，當我們考慮今年剩餘時間時，我們正在查看庫存，我們正在查看今年的前景，只是提醒您，我們仍然預計最終用戶需求在剩餘時間裡是積極的那一年。

So that will impact us to actually make -- that we will continue to actually probably still be ramping production for the remainder of the year, even though we do take you may see a small reduction -- relatively small reduction in dealer inventory over the next couple of quarters.

因此，這將影響我們實際製造 - 我們將在今年剩餘時間繼續實際可能仍在提高產量，即使我們確實認為你可能會看到小幅減少 - 明年經銷商庫存減少相對較小幾個季度。

We're just trying to highlight that to you as a result of the fact that it will impact reported results for some of the individual segments. Basically, overall, as we also said, we are not necessarily at the bottom end of the range for all products and all categories.

我們只是想向您強調這一點，因為它會影響某些單獨細分市場的報告結果。基本上，總體而言，正如我們所說，我們不一定處於所有產品和所有類別範圍的底端。

So there still will be areas where we are still trying to ramp up production. For example, large engines is an area where we're still constrained. That obviously is an area where we will still be ramping up production, rather than adjusting production in any other way.

因此，在某些領域，我們仍在努力提高產量。例如，大型發動機是我們仍然受到限制的領域。這顯然是我們仍將提高產量的領域，而不是以任何其他方式調整產量。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Steven Fisher。

Question about a couple of elements within E&T. I thought it was interesting that your industrial retail sales within E&T accelerated, but your own construction sales were relatively steady.

關於 E&T 中幾個元素的問題。我覺得有趣的是，您在 E&T 的工業零售銷售加速，但您自己的建築銷售卻相對穩定。

So I'm curious what markets drove that industrial acceleration. And then on the POWERGEN side, to what extent are there other elements besides data centers that are driving the strength in that segment?

所以我很好奇是什麼市場推動了工業加速發展。然後在 POWERGEN 方面，除了數據中心之外，還有其他因素在多大程度上推動了該領域的實力？

Well, we sell industrial engines for a whole variety of applications, not just the other construction equipment. So part of it is POWERGEN , and we sell industrial engines to drive everything from cement mixers. It's a whole variety of applications.

好吧，我們銷售用於各種應用的工業發動機，而不僅僅是其他建築設備。所以它的一部分是 POWERGEN ，我們銷售工業發動機來驅動從水泥攪拌機到一切。這是各種各樣的應用程序。

So again, a lot of strength there. The business is doing quite well. There's a lot of momentum.

再次，那裡有很多力量。生意做得很好。勢頭很大。

In terms of power generation, we provide generator sets for a whole variety of applications. Data centers is one of them, and we've highlighted data centers because it has been quite strong over the last few years. And if we look forward, we feel good about that continuing.

在發電方面，我們提供適用於各種應用的發電機組。數據中心就是其中之一，我們之所以強調數據中心是因為它在過去幾年中表現非常強勁。如果我們向前看，我們對這種持續下去感覺很好。

Just thinking about AI, thinking about the cloud, thinking about all of the data center users, we feel good about that. But we provide gen sets for a whole variety of applications. But the one that is really driving a lot of the growth at the moment is data centers, which is why we highlighted it.

想想人工智能，想想雲，想想所有的數據中心用戶，我們對此感覺很好。但我們為各種應用提供發電機組。但目前真正推動大量增長的是數據中心，這就是我們強調它的原因。

Emma, we have time for one more question.

艾瑪，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Dillon Cumming with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dillon Cumming。

Just wanted to ask one on the kind of financing environment. I think you guys called out the opportunity for Cat Financial maybe having some more flexibility to finance customers that might have more difficult to getting this kind of financing from smaller banks. .

只是想問一個關於融資環境的問題。我認為你們呼籲 Cat Financial 的機會可能有更多的靈活性來為客戶提供融資，這些客戶可能更難以從小型銀行獲得這種融資。 .

Just curious, first, you can kind of with some numbers around that and what the kind of share opportunity there is. And secondarily, if you're actually seeing evidence on the ground with regards to customers not being able to get financing at the moment over the last 3 months or so.

只是好奇，首先，你可以用一些數字來了解它，以及那裡有什麼樣的分享機會。其次，如果您確實在過去 3 個月左右的時間裡看到有關客戶目前無法獲得融資的實地證據。

Yes. Obviously, it's way too early to see any impact yet from any tightening credit conditions within the regional banks. But obviously, our expectation is that, that may have an impact.

是的。顯然，現在判斷區域性銀行內部信貸條件收緊會產生任何影響還為時過早。但顯然，我們的預期是，這可能會產生影響。

We tend to vary. It can probably be between 5% and 10% of machines financed that we could add in times where we are more competitive from a financing perspective with regional banks. So that's probably -- we're probably at the lower end of our normal range at the moment.

我們傾向於變化。從融資的角度來看，我們與區域銀行相比更具競爭力的時候，我們可以添加 5% 到 10% 的融資機器。所以這可能 - 我們目前可能處於正常範圍的低端。

So we could add 5% to 10% of machines without any problem whatsoever from a capacity perspective, which would be very strong for us and very positive at Cat Financial.

因此，從容量的角度來看，我們可以毫無問題地增加 5% 到 10% 的機器，這對我們來說非常強大，對 Cat Financial 也非常有利。

Okay. Well, thank you all for joining us. We appreciate your questions. We are proud of our team's performance in the first quarter. And as we mentioned earlier, we believe that 2023 will be even better than we had previously anticipated on both the top and bottom line due to the healthy demand across our end markets, and we remain focused on executing our strategy and continuing to invest for longer term. Again, thank you for joining us.

好的。好吧，謝謝大家加入我們。感謝您提出問題。我們為我們團隊在第一季度的表現感到自豪。正如我們之前提到的，由於我們終端市場的健康需求，我們相信 2023 年的收入和利潤將比我們之前預期的還要好，我們仍然專注於執行我們的戰略並繼續投資更長時間學期。再次感謝您加入我們。

Thanks, Jim. Andrew, Yes, thanks, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it is available.

謝謝，吉姆。安德魯，是的，謝謝吉姆、安德魯和今天加入我們的每一個人。今天上午晚些時候將在網上提供我們通話的重播。我們還將盡快在我們的投資者關係網站上發布成績單。

You'll also find a first quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view those materials.

您還可以找到我們的首席財務官的第一季度業績視頻和美國證券交易委員會提交的包含我們對用戶的銷售數據的文件。單擊 investors.caterpillar.com，然後單擊 Financials 查看這些材料。

If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. The Investor Relations general number is (309) 675-4549.

如果您有任何疑問，請聯繫 Rob 或我。投資者關係的總電話是 (309) 675-4549。

Now we'll turn the call back to Emma to conclude the call.

現在我們將把電話轉回給 Emma 以結束通話。

Thank you for attending today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。