開拓重工 (CAT) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you, and please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人瑞安費德勒 (Ryan Fiedler)。謝謝，請繼續。

Thanks, Abby. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's Third Quarter of 2023 Earnings Call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager.

謝謝，艾比。大家早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我是瑞安費德勒 (Ryan Fiedler)，投資者關係副總裁。今天與我一起出席的有董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby；安德魯‧邦菲爾德，財務長； Kyle Epley，全球金融服務部資深副總裁；以及高級 IR 經理 Rob Rengel。

During our call, we'll be discussing the third quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events & Presentations.

在電話會議中，我們將討論今天稍早發布的第三季財報。您可以在 Investors.caterpillar.com 的「活動和簡報」中找到我們的幻燈片、新聞稿和網路廣播回顧。

The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited.

本次通話的內容受美國及國際版權法保護。未經 Caterpillar 事先書面許可，禁止轉播、轉發、複製或散佈本內容的全部或部分內容。

Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of our many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings.

轉向投影片 2。在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，這些聲明存在風險和不確定性。我們還將做出一些假設，這些假設可能導致我們的實際結果與我們在本次電話會議中與您分享的資訊有所不同。請參閱我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件以及新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明提醒，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預測產生重大差異的單獨或總體因素的詳細資訊。我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細討論了我們認為可能對我們的業務持續產生重大影響的許多因素。

On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides.

在今天的電話會議上，我們還將提及非 GAAP 數據。有關任何非 GAAP 數據與相應的美國 GAAP 數據的調節，請參閱收益電話會議投影片的附錄。

Now let's turn to Slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 3，並將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby。

Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Before discussing our results, I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge the tragic events in the Middle East. We are deeply saddened by the loss of life and are hopeful for a quick and peaceful resolution. The Caterpillar Foundation is donating $1 million to the American Red Cross and its network of Red Crescent societies in the region to support the humanitarian needs of those impacted.

謝謝，瑞安。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。在討論我們的結果之前，我想花點時間承認中東發生的悲劇。我們對生命的逝去深感悲痛，並希望能夠迅速、和平地解決問題。卡特彼勒基金會向美國紅十字會及其在該地區的紅新月會網絡捐贈 100 萬美元，以支持受影響者的人道主義需求。

As we close out the third quarter, I want to thank our global team for delivering another strong quarter. This included double-digit top line growth, strong adjusted operating profit margin and robust ME&T free cash flow. Our results continue to reflect healthy demand across most of our end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth.

在第三季結束之際，我要感謝我們的全球團隊再次交付強勁的季度業績。這包括兩位數的營收成長、強勁的調整後營業利潤率以及強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流。我們的業績持續反映了大多數終端市場對我們產品和服務的健康需求。我們仍然專注於執行我們的策略，並繼續投資以實現長期獲利成長。

I'll begin with my perspectives about our performance in the quarter. I'll then provide some insights about our end markets. Lastly, I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey.

我將首先談談我對本季業績的看法。然後我將提供一些有關我們終端市場的見解。最後，我將介紹我們永續發展之旅的最新情況。

Moving to quarterly results. It was another strong quarter. Sales and revenues increased 12% in the third quarter versus last year. Adjusted operating profit margin improved to 20.8%, up significantly year-over-year. We also generated $2.9 billion of ME&T free cash flow in the quarter. Sales were generally in line with our expectations, while both adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow in the third quarter were better than we expected.

轉向季度業績。這是又一個強勁的季度。第三季銷售額和營收較去年同期成長 12%。調整後營業利益率提高至20.8%，較去年同期大幅上升。本季我們也產生了 29 億美元的 ME&T 自由現金流。銷售額整體符合我們的預期，而第三季調整後的營業利潤率和 ME&T 自由現金流量均優於我們的預期。

In addition, we ended the quarter with a healthy backlog of $28.1 billion. Backlog is a function of demand and lead times. As I've mentioned, demand remains healthy in most of our end markets. Due to improving supply chain conditions, product availability and lead times have improved for many products. Dealers and customers can wait longer to place orders, which has led to a moderation in order rates as expected.

此外，本季結束時，我們的積壓訂單達到了 281 億美元。積壓訂單是需求和交貨時間的函數。正如我所提到的，我們大多數終端市場的需求仍然健康。由於供應鏈條件的改善，許多產品的產品可用性和交貨時間都得到了改善。經銷商和客戶可以等待更長時間才能下訂單，這導致訂單率如預期有所放緩。

In addition, we have seen a reduction in dealer orders for building construction products, which we anticipated due to the changeover to Cat engines that we previously discussed, and for excavation in anticipation of dealers reducing their inventories in the fourth quarter. Although our backlog decline is expected, it still remains elevated as a percentage of revenues compared to historic levels. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, we now expect our full year 2023 results to be better than we anticipated during our last earnings call.

此外，我們還看到建築產品的經銷商訂單減少，我們預計這是由於我們之前討論過的轉向卡特彼勒發動機的結果，以及預計經銷商在第四季度減少庫存的挖掘訂單。儘管我們的積壓訂單預計會下降，但與歷史水準相比，其收入的百分比仍然較高。雖然我們繼續密切關注全球宏觀經濟狀況，但我們現在預計 2023 年全年業績將優於我們上次財報電話會議的預期。

Turning to Slide 4. In the third quarter of 2023, sales and revenues increased by 12% to $16.8 billion, driven primarily by favorable price realization as well as volume growth. Sales increased in each of our 3 primary segments. Compared with the third quarter of 2022, overall sales to users increased 13%, which was below our expectations.

轉向投影片 4。2023 年第三季度，銷售額和收入成長 12%，達到 168 億美元，這主要得益於有利的價格實現和銷售成長。我們三個主要細分市場的銷售額均有所成長。與 2022 年第三季相比，向用戶的整體銷售額成長了 13%，低於我們的預期。

Energy & Transportation sales to users increased 34% but was lower than expected due to some supply chain challenges for large engines and the timing of gas turbine and international locomotive deliveries. For machines, which includes Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users rose by 7%, in line with expectations.

能源與運輸向用戶的銷售額增長了 34%，但由於大型發動機的供應鏈挑戰以及燃氣渦輪機和國際機車的交付時間安排，低於預期。對於包括建築業和資源行業在內的機器，用戶銷售額成長了 7%，符合預期。

Sales to users in Construction Industries were up 6%. North American sales to users increased as demand remained healthy for nonresidential and residential construction. Nonresidential continued to benefit from government-related infrastructure and construction projects. Residential sales to users in North America also increased in the quarter. EAME sales to users were up slightly primarily due to continuing strength in Middle East construction activity. In Latin America and Asia Pacific, sales to users declined in the quarter.

建築業用戶銷售額成長 6%。由於非住宅和住宅建築的需求保持健康，北美對用戶的銷售量增加。非住宅繼續受益於政府相關的基礎設施和建設項目。本季北美用戶的住宅銷售也有所成長。歐洲、中東和非洲地區用戶銷售量略有成長，主要是因為中東建築活動持續強勁。在拉丁美洲和亞太地區，本季用戶銷售額有所下降。

In Resource Industries, sales to users increased 10%. In mining, sales to users increased with commodities remaining above investment thresholds. Within heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, sales to users also increased, supported by growth for infrastructure-related projects.

在資源產業，用戶銷售額成長了 10%。在採礦業，隨著商品仍高於投資門檻，對用戶的銷售量增加。在重型建築、採石場和骨材領域，在基礎設施相關項目成長的支持下，對使用者的銷售也有所增加。

In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 34%. All applications saw higher sales to users in the quarter. Oil and gas sales to users benefited from strong sales of turbines and turbine-related services. We also saw continued strength in sales of reciprocating engines into oil and gas applications, such as Tier 4 dynamic gas blending, repowering well servicing fleets and gas compression. Power generation sales to users continue to remain positive due to favorable market conditions, including strong data center growth. Industrial and transportation sales to users also increased.

在能源和交通領域，用戶銷售額成長了 34%。本季所有應用程式的用戶銷售量都有所成長。對用戶的石油和天然氣銷售受益於渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務的強勁銷售。我們也看到往復式引擎在石油和天然氣應用領域的銷售持續強勁，例如 Tier 4 動態氣體混合、油井維修車隊和氣體壓縮的重新供電。由於有利的市場條件（包括資料中心的強勁成長），向用戶的發電銷售繼續保持正值。對用戶的工業和運輸銷售也有所增加。

Dealer inventories increased by $600 million in the quarter, led by Construction Industries and followed by Energy & Transportation. In Construction Industries, the increase was in North America in some of our most constrained product lines, including BCP and earthmoving. We remain very comfortable with the total level of dealer inventory, which is within the typical range. Andrew will provide more color later in the call.

本季經銷商庫存增加了 6 億美元，其中建築業領先，能源和運輸業緊隨其後。在建築業，北美地區一些最受限的產品線有所增加，包括 BCP 和土方工程。我們對經銷商庫存的總水準仍然非常滿意，該水準在典型範圍內。安德魯將在稍後的電話會議中提供更多資訊。

Adjusted operating profit margin increased to 20.8% in the third quarter, a 430 basis point increase over last year. Adjusted operating profit margin was better than we had anticipated. Relative to our expectations, we saw lower-than-expected manufacturing costs, including freight, as well as slightly favorable price realization, which included a positive impact from geographic mix.

第三季調整後營業利益率增至20.8%，較去年同期成長430個基點。調整後營業利益率優於我們的預期。相對於我們的預期，我們看到包括運費在內的製造成本低於預期，價格實現略顯有利，其中包括地理組合的正面影響。

Moving to Slide 5. We generated strong ME&T free cash flow of $2.9 billion in the third quarter and $6.8 billion in the first 3 quarters of 2023. Year-to-date, we returned $4.1 billion to shareholders, which included about $2.2 billion in repurchased stock and $1.9 billion in dividends. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases.

轉到幻燈片5。我們在第三季度產生了29 億美元的強勁ME&T 自由現金流，在2023 年前三個季度產生了68 億美元。年初至今，我們向股東返還了41 億美元，其中包括約22 億美元的回購資金股票和 19 億美元的股利。我們仍然為自己的股息貴族地位感到自豪，並繼續期望隨著時間的推移，透過股息和股票回購將大部分 ME&T 自由現金流返還給股東。

Now on Slide 6, I'll describe our expectations moving forward. As I mentioned earlier, we now anticipate the full year to be better than we previously expected. We expect our adjusted operating profit margin to be slightly above the targeted range relative to the corresponding level of sales. This positive operating performance increases our expectation for ME&T free cash flow, which we now expect will exceed the $4 billion to $8 billion target range for the full year. This outlook for the adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow reflects healthy customer demand and our strong operating performance.

現在，在投影片 6 上，我將描述我們未來的期望。正如我之前提到的，我們現在預計全年的情況將好於我們先前的預期。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率相對於相應的銷售額水準將略高於目標範圍。這種積極的經營業績提高了我們對 ME&T 自由現金流的預期，我們目前預計該現金流將超過全年 40 億至 80 億美元的目標範圍。調整後營業利潤率和 ME&T 自由現金流的前景反映了健康的客戶需求和我們強勁的經營業績。

Now I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets, starting with Construction Industries. In North America overall, we continue to see positive momentum. We expect continued growth in nonresidential construction in North America due to the impact of government-related infrastructure investments and a healthy pipeline of construction projects. Although residential construction growth has moderated, we expect it to remain healthy.

現在我將討論我們對主要終端市場的前景，從建築業開始。整個北美地區，我們繼續看到積極的勢頭。由於政府相關基礎設施投資和健康的建設項目的影響，我們預計北美非住宅建築將持續成長。儘管住宅建設成長放緩，但我們預計將保持健康。

In Asia Pacific excluding China, we expect growth in Construction Industries due to public infrastructure spending in support of commodity prices. As we have mentioned during previous earnings calls, we anticipate continued weakness in China and expect it to remain well below our typical range of 5% to 10% of enterprise sales.

在中國以外的亞太地區，我們預計由於公共基礎設施支出支持大宗商品價格，建築業將會成長。正如我們在先前的財報電話會議中提到的，我們預計中國市場將持續疲軟，並預計其占企業銷售額的比例仍遠低於我們通常設定的 5% 至 10% 的範圍。

In EAME, we anticipate the region will be slightly down as weakness continues in Europe, partially offset by continuing strong construction demand in the Middle East. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to be about flat versus strong 2022 performance.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們預計該地區的經濟將略有下降，因為歐洲持續疲軟，但部分被中東持續強勁的建築需求所抵消。拉丁美洲的建築活動預計將與 2022 年的強勁表現持平。

In Resource Industries, we continue to see a high level of quoting activity. In mining, customer product utilization remains high. The number of parked trucks remains low, and the age of the fleet remains elevated. Order rates are slightly lower than we expected at this time, reflecting continued capital discipline by our customers. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for long-term profitable growth.

在資源產業，我們繼續看到高水準的報價活動。在採礦業，客戶產品利用率仍然很高。停放的卡車數量仍然很低，車隊的車齡仍然很高。訂單率略低於我們目前的預期，反映出我們客戶持續的資本紀律。我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，能源轉型將支持大宗商品需求的增加，擴大我們的潛在市場總量，並為長期獲利成長提供更多機會。

In addition, customer acceptance of our autonomous solutions continues to grow. This is evidenced by the announcement this morning with Freeport-McMoran, who will convert their fleet of Cat 793 large mining trucks at an Arizona copper mine to autonomous haulage using Cat MineStar Command. We also expect heavy construction and quarry and aggregates to remain in healthy levels due to major infrastructure and nonresidential construction projects.

此外，客戶對我們的自主解決方案的接受度持續成長。 Freeport-McMoran 今天早上發布的公告證明了這一點，該公司將把亞利桑那州銅礦的 Cat 793 大型礦用卡車車隊改裝為使用 Cat MineStar Command 進行自動運輸。我們也預計，由於重大基礎設施和非住宅建設項目，重型建築、採石場和骨料將保持在健康水平。

Moving to Energy & Transportation. In oil and gas, we remain encouraged by continuing strong demand for Cat reciprocating engines and gas compression. As we said last quarter, while servicing in North America is showing some short-term moderation, but we remain optimistic about future demand. Cat reciprocating engine demand for power generation is expected to remain strong primarily driven by data center growth. New equipment and services for solar turbines in both oil and gas and power generation remain robust. Industrial demand is expected to soften slightly from recent high levels but remains well above our historical averages. In transportation, we anticipate strength in high-speed marine as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets.

轉向能源和交通。在石油和天然氣領域，對 Cat 往復式引擎和氣體壓縮的持續強勁需求仍然令我們感到鼓舞。正如我們上季度所說，雖然北美的服務出現短期放緩，但我們對未來的需求仍然樂觀。 Cat 往復式引擎的發電需求預計將保持強勁，主要受到資料中心成長的推動。石油、天然氣和發電領域的太陽能渦輪機新設備和服務仍然強勁。工業需求預計將較近期高點略有疲軟，但仍遠高於歷史平均。在運輸方面，隨著客戶不斷升級老化的船隊，我們預期高速海運的實力將會增強。

As we've described, we continue to see strength in most of our end markets. Based on our backlog, dealer inventory and current market conditions, we expect to have another good year in 2024. We will provide additional information during our fourth quarter call.

正如我們所描述的，我們繼續看到大多數終端市場的實力。根據我們的積壓訂單、經銷商庫存和當前市場狀況，我們預計 2024 年將迎來另一個好年。我們將在第四季度電話會議期間提供更多資訊。

Moving to Slide 7. We continue to advance our sustainability journey. We're helping our customers achieve their climate-related objectives by continuing to invest in new products, technologies and services that facilitate fuel flexibility, increased operational efficiency and reduced emissions.

轉向幻燈片 7。我們繼續推進我們的永續發展之旅。我們透過持續投資新產品、技術和服務來幫助客戶實現與氣候相關的目標，以促進燃料靈活性、提高營運效率並減少排放。

For example, Caterpillar provides a number of low-carbon intensity solutions to customers. In Construction Industries, the Cat 980 XE Wheel Loader, which features a Cat-designed and manufactured continuous variable transmission, improves fuel efficiency by as much as 35% and reduces CO2 emissions by as much as 17% compared to the previous model.

例如，卡特彼勒為客戶提供了許多低碳強度的解決方案。在建築業，Cat 980 XE 輪式裝載機配備了 Cat 設計和製造的無段變速箱，與之前的型號相比，燃油效率提高了 35%，二氧化碳排放量減少了 17%。

We also introduced the new Cat G3600 Gen 2 engine, the latest evolution of the powerful G3600 series offering lower emissions. With more than 8,500 Cat G3600 units in the field, the Gen 2 engine is designed to build upon the platform's robust performance to provide a 10% increase in power and lower emissions compared to the previous model.

我們還推出了新型 Cat G3600 Gen 2 發動機，這是功能強大的 G3600 系列的最新發展版本，可提供更低的排放。目前已有超過 8,500 台 Cat G3600 裝置投入使用，第二代引擎旨在以平台的強大性能為基礎，與之前的型號相比，功率增加 10%，排放量降低。

We've also made several joint announcements with customers that demonstrate our commitment to supporting their climate-related objectives. I'll highlight one here.

我們也與客戶發布了多項聯合公告，表明我們致力於支持他們的氣候相關目標。我將在這裡強調一個。

In September, Caterpillar and Albemarle introduced a unique collaboration aimed to support their efforts to establish Kings Mountain, North Carolina as the first-ever 0 emissions lithium mine in North America, while also making lithium available for use in Caterpillar battery production. These examples reinforce our ongoing sustainability leadership and how we're helping our customers build a better, more sustainable world.

9 月，卡特彼勒和雅寶推出了一項獨特的合作，旨在支持他們將北卡羅來納州國王山建成北美首個零排放鋰礦，同時將鋰用於卡特彼勒電池生產。這些例子強化了我們持續的永續發展領導力，以及我們如何幫助客戶建立一個更美好、更永續的世界。

With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

這樣，我就把它交給安德魯。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with commentary on the third quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I'll discuss the balance sheet and cash flow before concluding with our assumptions for the fourth quarter and full year.

謝謝吉姆，大家早安。我將首先評論第三季的業績，包括我們各部門的業績。然後我將討論資產負債表和現金流，然後得出我們對第四季和全年的假設。

Beginning on Slide 8. Our overall operating performance was strong. Adjusted operating profit margin, adjusted profit per share and ME&T free cash flow all were better than we expected, while sales grew in line with our expectations. Based on the strong third quarter and year-to-date operating performance, we now expect that the adjusted operating profit margin for the year will be slightly above the top end of our target range at the corresponding level of sales. We also anticipate that ME&T free cash flow will exceed the target range of $4 billion to $8 billion.

從幻燈片 8 開始。我們的整體營運表現強勁。調整後營業利益率、調整後每股盈餘和 ME&T 自由現金流均優於我們的預期，而銷售成長符合我們的預期。基於強勁的第三季和年初至今的營運業績，我們現在預計今年調整後的營運利潤率將略高於相應銷售水準下的目標範圍上限。我們也預計 ME&T 自由現金流將超過 40 億至 80 億美元的目標範圍。

In summary, sales and revenues increased by 12% or $1.8 billion to $16.8 billion. The sales increase versus the prior year was driven primarily by price realization as well as higher sales volume. Operating profit increased by 42% or $1 billion to $3.4 billion. The adjusted operating profit margin was 20.8%, an increase of 430 basis points versus the prior year.

總之，銷售額和收入成長了 12%，即 18 億美元，達到 168 億美元。與前一年相比，銷售額的成長主要是由於價格實現以及銷售量的增加。營業利潤成長 42%，即 10 億美元，達到 34 億美元。調整後營業利益率為20.8%，較上年增加430個基點。

Profit per share was $5.45 in the third quarter of this year. This included restructuring costs of $0.07 per share as compared to $0.08 in the prior year. We continue to expect restructuring expenses of about $700 million for the full year. Adjusted profit per share increased by 40% to $5.52 in the third quarter compared to $3.95 last year.

今年第三季每股獲利為 5.45 美元。其中包括每股 0.07 美元的重組成本，而前一年為 0.08 美元。我們仍然預計全年重組費用約為 7 億美元。第三季調整後每股獲利成長 40%，達到 5.52 美元，去年同期為 3.95 美元。

Other income of $195 million was lower than that -- than the third quarter of 2022 by $47 million. The decline was driven by less favorable currency impact in the quarter related to ME&T balance sheet translation as compared to the prior year, along with the recurring increase in our pension expense of approximately $80 million per quarter. Higher investment and interest income acted as a partial offset.

其他收入為 1.95 億美元，比 2022 年第三季低 4,700 萬美元。與前一年相比，本季與 ME&T 資產負債表換算相關的貨幣影響較差，以及我們的退休金支出每季約 8,000 萬美元的經常性成長，導致了這一下降。較高的投資和利息收入起到了部分抵銷作用。

The provision for income taxes in the third quarter, excluding discrete items, reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 22.5%, which is the rate we now expect for the full year. The slightly lower-than-expected tax rate along with discrete items added about $0.14 to profit per share in the quarter.

第三季的所得稅撥備（不包括離散項目）反映出全球年度有效稅率為 22.5%，這是我們現在預期的全年稅率。略低於預期的稅率以及離散項目使本季每股利潤增加了約 0.14 美元。

Moving on to Slide 9. As I mentioned, the 12% increase in the top line versus the prior year was primarily due to price realization as well as higher sales volume. Volume improved as sales to users increased by 13%, while year-over-year changes in dealer inventory acted as a slight offset. Overall, the magnitude of the sales increase was in line with our expectations. However, by segment, Construction Industries sales were higher, Resource Industries were in line and Energy & Transportation sales were lower than we had anticipated.

轉到幻燈片 9。正如我所提到的，收入較上年增長 12% 主要是由於價格實現以及銷量增加。用戶銷量增加了 13%，銷量有所改善，而經銷商庫存的同比變化則略有抵消。整體而言，銷售成長幅度符合我們的預期。然而，以細分市場來看，建築業的銷售額較高，資源業的銷售額保持不變，能源和運輸業的銷售額低於我們的預期。

Services revenues increased in the third quarter. We will update you with our progress towards our services growth target when we report our fourth quarter results and as is our normal practice.

第三季服務收入有所成長。當我們報告第四季度業績時，我們將按照我們的慣例向您通報我們實現服務成長目標的進展。

Price realization was slightly better than we had expected for the quarter. However, as we anticipated, we did see the magnitude of the year-over-year price effect moderate compared to the second quarter as we lapped prior year price increases.

本季的價格實現略優於我們的預期。然而，正如我們預期的那樣，我們確實看到與第二季度相比，同比價格影響的幅度較小，因為我們超過了去年的價格漲幅。

Volume was slightly below our expectations. As Jim mentioned, sales to users were lower than we had anticipated, principally in Energy & Transportation. However, this was nearly offset by the increase in dealer inventory versus our expectations of it being about flat for the quarter.

成交量略低於我們的預期。正如吉姆所提到的，對用戶的銷售額低於我們的預期，主要是在能源和運輸領域。然而，這幾乎被經銷商庫存的增加所抵消，而我們預計本季庫存將持平。

The increase in dealer inventory was driven primarily by Construction Industries. There, we had stronger-than-expected shipments in North America, particularly in building construction products and earthmoving. Within North America, these products remain constrained and are near the bottom end of the typical dealer inventory range of 3 to 4 months of sales.

經銷商庫存的增加主要是由建築業推動的。在那裡，我們在北美的出貨量強於預期，特別是在建築產品和土方工程方面。在北美地區，這些產品仍然受到限制，並且接近 3 至 4 個月銷售的典型經銷商庫存範圍的底部。

We also saw some dealer inventory increase in Energy & Transportation within the quarter. I'll remind you that dealer inventory in Energy & Transportation and Resource Industries is mainly a function of the commissioning pipeline with over 70% of dealer inventory in these segments backed by firm customer orders. Because dealer inventory is more a function of commissioning in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation, it is difficult for us to predict in these 2 segments. I will discuss further our full year expectations for dealer inventories a little bit later.

本季我們也看到能源和運輸領域的經銷商庫存增加。我要提醒您的是，能源與運輸和資源行業的經銷商庫存主要是調試渠道的函數，這些細分市場中超過 70% 的經銷商庫存是由確定的客戶訂單支持的。由於經銷商庫存更取決於資源產業和能源與運輸業的調試，因此我們很難預測這兩個細分市場。稍後我將進一步討論我們對經銷商庫存的全年預期。

Moving to Slide 10. Third quarter operating profit increased by 42% to $3.4 billion while adjusted operating profit increased by 41% to $3.5 billion. Price realization, which included a slight benefit from a shift in the geographic mix of sales and sales volume were favorable in the quarter.

轉向投影片 10。第三季營業利潤成長 42%，達到 34 億美元，調整後營業利潤成長 41%，達到 35 億美元。價格實現（包括銷售地理組合和銷售變化帶來的輕微收益）在本季表現良好。

Our largest headwinds to operating profit were higher SG&A and R&D expenses and higher manufacturing costs. SG&A and R&D expenses included higher strategic investment spend. Manufacturing cost increases included higher material costs and unfavorable cost absorption as we reduced our inventories compared to a corresponding increase in the third quarter of 2022. Lower freight costs acted as a partial offset within manufacturing costs.

我們營業利潤面臨的最大阻力是銷售、行政管理和研發費用的增加以及製造成本的增加。 SG&A 和研發費用包括較高的策略性投資支出。製造成本增加包括材料成本上漲和不利的成本吸收，因為與 2022 年第三季的相應增加相比，我們減少了庫存。貨運成本的降低部分抵消了製造成本。

The adjusted operating profit margin of 20.8% improved by 430 basis points. This was better than we had anticipated primarily due to favorable manufacturing costs, of which freight was the largest contributor. Also, the slightly better-than-expected price held margins.

調整後營業利益率為 20.8%，提高了 430 個基點。這比我們的預期要好，主要是由於有利的製造成本，其中運費是最大的貢獻者。此外，略好於預期的價格也維持了利潤。

Now I'll discuss the performance of the segments. On Slide 11, Construction Industries sales increased by 12% in the third quarter to $7 billion primarily due to favorable price realization.

現在我將討論各部分的性能。在投影片 11 中，建築業第三季的銷售額成長了 12%，達到 70 億美元，這主要是由於有利的價格實現。

By region. Sales in North America rose by 31% due to higher sales volume and favorable price. As I mentioned, supply chain improvements enabled stronger-than-expected shipments in North America, which supported some dealer restocking. Sales of equipment to end users were in line with our expectations for the region. Sales in Latin America decreased by 31% primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price. In EAME, sales increased by 8% mainly due to favorable price and currency impacts. Sales in Asia Pacific decreased by 8% primarily due to lower sales volume driven by lower sales of equipment to end users.

按地區。由於銷量增加和價格優惠，北美地區的銷售額增長了 31%。正如我所提到的，供應鏈的改善使得北美的出貨量強於預期，這支持了一些經銷商的補貨。向最終用戶銷售的設備符合我們對該地區的預期。拉丁美洲的銷售額下降了 31%，主要是由於銷量下降，但部分被優惠的價格所抵消。在 EAME，銷售額成長了 8%，主要是由於有利的價格和貨幣影響。亞太地區銷售額下降 8%，主要是因為向最終用戶銷售的設備減少導致銷量下降。

Third quarter profit for Construction Industries increased by 53% versus the prior year to $1.8 billion. The increase was mainly due to favorable price realization. The segment's operating margin of 26.4% was an increase of 710 basis points versus last year. Margin exceeded our expectations on better volume, price and lower-than-anticipated manufacturing costs, primarily freight.

建築業第三季獲利較上年同期成長 53%，達 18 億美元。這一增長主要是由於有利的價格實現。該部門的營業利潤率為 26.4%，比去年增加了 710 個基點。利潤率超出了我們的預期，因為數量、價格和製造成本（主要是運費）低於預期。

Turning to Slide 12. Resource Industries sales grew by 9% in the third quarter to $3.4 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price realization, partially offset by lower sales volume. Volume decreases, higher sales of equipment to end users, were more than offset by lower aftermarket parts volume, which reflected changes in dealer buying patterns.

轉向投影片 12。資源產業第三季銷售額成長 9%，達到 34 億美元。這一增長主要是由於有利的價格實現，但部分被銷量下降所抵消。銷量下降以及向最終用戶銷售的設備銷量增加，被售後零件銷量下降所抵消，這反映了經銷商購買模式的變化。

Third quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 44% versus the prior year to $730 million mainly due to favorable price realization. Profit was partially offset by the impact of lower sales volume, which included unfavorable product mix. The segment's operating margin of 21.8% was an increase of 540 basis points versus last year. Margin was better than we had expected primarily due to lower-than-anticipated manufacturing costs driven by freight, and price.

資源產業第三季獲利較上年同期成長 44%，達到 7.3 億美元，主要得益於有利的價格實現。利潤被銷售量下降（包括不利的產品組合）的影響部分抵銷。該部門的營業利潤率為 21.8%，比去年增加了 540 個基點。利潤率優於我們的預期，主要是因為運費和價格驅動的製造成本低於預期。

Now on Slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 11% in the third quarter to $6.9 billion. Sales were up across all applications. Oil and gas sales increased by 26%. Power generation sales were higher by 21%. Industrial sales rose by 5%. And transportation sales increased by 6%. Third quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 26% versus the prior year to $1.2 billion.

現在請參閱投影片 13。第三季能源與運輸銷售額成長 11%，達到 69 億美元。所有應用程式的銷售額均有所上升。石油和天然氣銷售額成長了26%。發電銷售額成長了 21%。工業銷售成長5%。運輸銷售成長了6%。能源與運輸部門第三季獲利較上年同期成長 26%，達 12 億美元。

The increase was mainly due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume, partially offset by higher SG&A and R&D expenses, unfavorable manufacturing costs and currency impacts. SG&A and R&D expenses reflected ramping investments related to strategic growth initiatives. A reminder that most of our strategic investments relating to electrification and alternative fuels occur in the segment, which impacts reported margins.

這一增長主要是由於有利的價格實現和較高的銷量，但部分被較高的銷售、行政管理和研發費用、不利的製造成本和貨幣影響所抵消。 SG&A 和研發費用反映與策略成長計畫相關的投資不斷增加。提醒我們，我們與電氣化和替代燃料相關的大部分策略性投資都發生在該領域，這會影響報告的利潤率。

The segment's operating margin of 17.2% was an increase of 210 basis points versus the prior year. Margin was lower than we had anticipated primarily due to lower-than-expected sales volume impacted by supply chain challenges for large engines and delivery delays for solar turbines.

該部門的營業利潤率為 17.2%，比前一年增加了 210 個基點。利潤率低於我們的預期，主要是由於大型引擎的供應鏈挑戰和太陽能渦輪機的交付延遲影響銷售低於預期。

Moving to Slide 14. Financial Products revenue increased by 20% to $979 million primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions. Segment profit decreased by 8% to $203 million. The decrease was mainly due to a higher provision for credit losses at Cat Financial. The unfavorable impact reflects a challenging comparison as we had reserve releases in the prior year as compared to a more typical provision expense in the third quarter of 2023.

轉向投影片 14。金融產品收入成長 20%，達到 9.79 億美元，主要是由於所有地區的平均融資利率較高。部門利潤下降 8% 至 2.03 億美元。減少的主要原因是 Cat Financial 的信用損失準備金增加。不利的影響反映了一個具有挑戰性的比較，因為我們在上一年釋放了準備金，而與 ​​2023 年第三季更典型的撥備支出相比。

Of note though, through the third quarter of this year, provision expense for a comparable 9-month period is at the lowest level for over 20 years. Business activity remains strong with our -- and our portfolio continues to perform well with past dues and write-offs at historic low levels. Past dues in the quarter were 1.96%, a 4 basis point improvement compared to the third quarter of 2022 and a decrease of 19 basis points compared to the second quarter.

但值得注意的是，截至今年第三季度，可比 9 個月期間的撥備支出處於 20 多年來的最低水準。我們的業務活動依然強勁，我們的投資組合持續表現良好，逾期未付款項和沖銷額處於歷史低點。本季逾期未付款率為 1.96%，較 2022 年第三季提高 4 個基點，較第二季下降 19 個基點。

Retail new business volume increased versus the prior year. And though it declined compared to the second quarter, this follows the typical seasonal pattern. In addition, we continue to see strong demand for used equipment, and used inventory remains at low levels.

零售新業務量較上年有成長。儘管與第二季度相比有所下降，但這遵循了典型的季節性模式。此外，我們繼續看到對二手設備的強勁需求，二手庫存仍處於較低水準。

Now on Slide 15. Our ME&T free cash flow has been robust this year with another $2.9 billion generated during the third quarter. With $6.8 billion generated through the first 3 quarters of this year, we expect to exceed our target of $4 billion to $8 billion this year.

現在請參閱投影片 15。今年，我們的 ME&T 自由現金流一直強勁，第三季又產生了 29 億美元。今年前 3 季創造了 68 億美元的收入，我們預計今年將超過 40 億至 80 億美元的目標。

From a working capital perspective, we had a small inventory decrease of around $200 million in the quarter. Looking ahead, we expect our inventory levels will continue to decrease as we see sustained supply chain improvement.

從營運資金的角度來看，本季我們的庫存小幅減少了約 2 億美元。展望未來，隨著供應鏈持續改善，我們預期庫存水準將繼續下降。

CapEx in the third quarter was around $400 million. With about $1.1 billion in CapEx through the first 3 quarters, we continue to expect around $1.5 billion for the full year.

第三季的資本支出約為 4 億美元。前三個季度的資本支出約為 11 億美元，我們繼續預計全年資本支出約為 15 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong. We have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $6.5 billion, and we hold an additional $4.3 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash.

我們的資產負債表仍然強勁。我們擁有充足的流動性，企業現金餘額為 65 億美元，另外我們也持有 43 億美元的期限稍長的流動性有價證券，以提高現金的收益率。

Now on Slide 16, I will share some high-level assumptions for the fourth quarter and the full year. During the fourth quarter, we anticipate slightly higher sales as compared to the prior year. Price should remain favorable. We expect sales to users to continue to support good underlying growth though changes in dealer inventories should act as an offset. As a reminder, we saw dealers increase inventories by $700 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 whilst we expect a decrease in the fourth quarter of this year.

現在，在投影片 16 上，我將分享第四季和全年的一些進階假設。我們預計第四季的銷售額將略高於去年同期。價格應該會保持有利。我們預計對用戶的銷售將繼續支持良好的潛在成長，儘管經銷商庫存的變化應該起到抵消作用。提醒一下，我們看到經銷商在 2022 年第四季增加了 7 億美元的庫存，而我們預計今年第四季庫存會減少。

Specifically in Construction Industries, we do not expect the seasonal sales increase typically seen from the third to the fourth quarter. Those sales to users are expected to increase on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. Instead, we anticipate lower shipment volumes as we complete the Cat engine changeover in building construction products and dealers reduce their inventories principally of excavators. This compares to a dealer inventory increase in the fourth quarter of 2022. Though we now expect that dealer inventory in Construction Industries will be higher at the end of 2023 than it was at the year-end 2022, we still expect it to be within the typical 3 to 4 months of sales range.

特別是在建築業，我們預計第三季至第四季通常不會出現季節性銷售成長。預計對用戶的銷售額將環比和同比增長。相反，隨著我們完成建築產品中的 Cat 引擎更換以及經銷商減少主要是挖掘機的庫存，我們預計出貨量將會下降。與 2022 年第四季經銷商庫存增加相比。儘管我們現在預計建築業的經銷商庫存到 2023 年底將高於 2022 年底，但我們仍然預計其將在通常 3 至 4 個月的銷售範圍。

A reminder, this is an average across all dealers and all products in Construction Industries, and it is difficult to predict with precision given over 150 independent dealers and hundreds of different products. Similar to last quarter, there are still areas and/or products where dealers would like to have more inventory. As Jim has mentioned, we are very comfortable with the level of inventory held by dealers overall.

提醒一下，這是建築業所有經銷商和所有產品的平均值，考慮到 150 多個獨立經銷商和數百種不同產品，很難精確預測。與上季類似，經銷商仍然希望在某些領域和/或產品擁有更多庫存。正如吉姆所提到的，我們對經銷商的整體庫存水準感到非常滿意。

In Resource Industries, we anticipate slightly lower sales as compared to the third quarter as a result of improvements in availability. We also expect lower sales versus the prior year driven by changes in dealer inventory. In the fourth quarter of 2022, there was an increase in dealer inventories for Resource Industries, while we expect a decrease in the fourth quarter of this year.

在資源產業，由於可用性的改善，我們預計銷售額將比第三季略有下降。我們也預計，由於經銷商庫存變化，銷量將較上年下降。 2022 年第四季度，資源產業的經銷商庫存增加，而我們預計今年第四季會減少。

We expect sales in Energy & Transportation to increase in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter with higher solar turbines and rail deliveries. However, keep in mind that we continue to work through supply chain challenges primarily impacting large engines. We also anticipate some moderation in industrial sales during the fourth quarter compared to recent high levels.

我們預計，隨著太陽能渦輪機和鐵路交付量的增加，第四季度能源和運輸領域的銷售額將比第三季度有所成長。然而，請記住，我們將繼續努力解決主要影響大型引擎的供應鏈挑戰。我們也預期第四季度工業銷售與近期高水準相比將有所放緩。

Now I'll comment on our expectations for margins. We provided our adjusted operating profit margin target chart to assist you in your modeling process. Based on our current planning assumptions, we anticipate the adjusted operating profit margin to be slightly above the target range for the full year 2023. This is based on the corresponding estimated level of sales. Your expectation of total enterprise sales this year will inform where margins could finish for the year.

現在我將評論我們對利潤率的預期。我們提供了調整後的營業利潤率目標圖表，以幫助您進行建模流程。根據我們目前的規劃假設，我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將略高於2023年全年的目標範圍。這是基於相應的預期銷售水準。您對今年企業總銷售額的預期將決定今年的利潤率。

Specific to the fourth quarter, we anticipate the adjusted operating profit margin to be lower than the third quarter. We anticipate lower-than-normal volume leverage, particularly impacting Construction Industries for the reasons I mentioned previously. We also anticipate a negative segment mix to impact operating margins as Construction Industries sales will be a lower proportion of total sales as compared to the third quarter.

具體到第四季度，我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將低於第三季。我們預期成交量槓桿率將低於正常水平，尤其是由於我之前提到的原因，對建築業的影響。我們也預計，由於建築業銷售額佔總銷售額的比例將低於第三季度，因此，負面的細分市場組合將影響營業利潤率。

Price realization should remain positive, though we expect the magnitude of the favorability versus the prior year to moderate as we continue to lap more favorable pricing trends from last year. Therefore, the increases in margins that have occurred from price outpacing manufacturing cost inflation should moderate in the fourth quarter.

價格實現應保持積極，但我們預計，隨著我們繼續遵循去年更有利的定價趨勢，與前一年相比，有利程度會有所緩和。因此，由於價格超過製造成本通膨而導致的利潤率成長在第四季度應該會放緩。

In addition, as you look down the income statement for the prior year, there are a couple of points to note. First, short-term incentive expense in the fourth quarter of 2022 was lower than normal due to the true-up for the final outcomes for the financial year. This will be a headwind for year-over-year operating margins. However, this will be partially offset by favorability in other operating income and expense as we do not expect the significant currency translation losses that we saw in the fourth quarter of last year to recur.

此外，當您查看上一年的損益表時，有幾點需要注意。首先，由於本財年最終結果的調整，2022 年第四季的短期激勵費用低於正常水準。這將成為同比營運利潤的不利因素。然而，這將被其他營業收入和支出的有利情況部分抵消，因為我們預計去年第四季出現的重大貨幣換算損失不會再次出現。

By segment. In Construction Industries, we expect slightly lower margin compared to the third quarter, assuming lower volume. We also anticipate lower sequential margins in Resource Industries, as is typical, impacted by cost absorption along with higher spend relating to strategic investments. In Energy & Transportation, we expect margins will be similar to the third quarter with stronger volume offset by manufacturing costs and an unfavorable mix of products, which includes international locomotive deliveries in rail.

按分段。在建築業，假設產量較低，我們預期利潤率將略低於第三季。我們也預期資源產業的連續利潤率將下降，這是典型的，受到成本吸收以及與策略性投資相關的支出增加的影響。在能源與運輸領域，我們預計利潤率將與第三季度相似，但製造成本和不利的產品組合（包括國際鐵路機車交付）抵消了銷售量的增加。

Now turning to Slide 17. Let me summarize. Adjusted profit per share is $15.98 through the first 3 quarters of the year, which already exceeds our previous full year record by 15%. We generated strong adjusted operating profit margin with a 430 basis point increase to 20.8%. We now expect to be slightly above the targeted range for adjusted operating profit margin for the full year based on our expected sales levels. ME&T free cash flow remained robust with $6.8 billion year-to-date. We now expect ME&T free cash flow to exceed our $4 billion to $8 billion target range for the full year.

現在轉向投影片 17。讓我總結一下。今年前 3 季調整後每股利潤為 15.98 美元，已超出我們先前的全年記錄 15%。我們的調整後營業利潤率強勁，成長了 430 個基點，達到 20.8%。我們現在預計，根據我們預期的銷售水平，全年調整後的營業利潤率將略高於目標範圍。 ME&T 自由現金流保持強勁，今年迄今為 68 億美元。我們現在預計 ME&T 自由現金流將超過我們全年 40 億至 80 億美元的目標範圍。

We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth. And with that, we'll take your questions.

我們繼續執行長期獲利成長策略。接下來，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

Just based on where the backlog sits today, you discussed the easing supply conditions impacting lead times, orders. As that normalizes, do you expect the backlog to consolidate at these levels and then move higher? You mentioned some capital discipline with customers. Just curious, Jim, with where commodity prices are for oil, iron ore, copper, is that enough to support growth in 2024?

僅根據今天的積壓情況，您討論了影響交貨時間和訂單的寬鬆供應條件。隨著這種情況的正常化，您是否預計積壓訂單會在這些水平上鞏固，然後進一步上升？您提到了與客戶的一些資本紀律。 Jim 很好奇，石油、鐵礦石、銅等大宗商品價格的走勢是否足以支持 2024 年的成長？

Yes. As I mentioned, we do expect another good year in 2024, and we'll provide more detail in January. We talked about this a bit in our last quarterly call. Our backlog is higher than it normally would be because our lead times are higher than I'd like them to be, frankly. And what we've talked about is, as supply conditions continue to improve, we expect lead times to come down, which should have a corresponding impact on our backlog. Our backlog should come down. So that's a positive thing.

是的。正如我所提到的，我們確實預計 2024 年會是另一個美好的一年，我們將在 1 月提供更多詳細資訊。我們在上一次季度電話會議中對此進行了一些討論。坦白說，我們的積壓訂單比平常要多，因為我們的交貨時間比我希望的要長。我們談到的是，隨著供應狀況持續改善，我們預計交貨時間會縮短，這應該會對我們的積壓訂單產生相應的影響。我們的積壓工作應該會減少。所以這是一件正面的事情。

If you look at our backlog over a number of years, it's still elevated compared to where it normally would be based on revenue. So again, we do feel good about market conditions, and we expect that as we improve lead times, that backlog as a percentage of revenue would come down to more normal levels.

如果你看看我們多年來的積壓訂單，你會發現與通常基於收入的情況相比，它仍然較高。因此，我們確實對市場狀況感覺良好，我們預計，隨著交貨時間的縮短，積壓佔收入的百分比將降至更正常的水平。

Yes. Let me just give you some numbers to add to that. I mean, if you look at the backlog as a percentage of trailing 12-month revenues in the period of 2017, it was 37%. In 2018, it was 32%. Currently today is around 44%. So backlog still is elevated based on historic trends. And remind you also that services revenues now are a higher proportion of our total revenue base as well.

是的。讓我給你一些數字來補充一下。我的意思是，如果你看看積壓訂單佔 2017 年過去 12 個月收入的百分比，你會發現它是 37%。 2018年，這一比例為32%。目前約為 44%。因此，根據歷史趨勢，積壓仍然在增加。也要提醒您，服務收入現在在我們總收入基礎中所佔的比例也更高。

And we will take our next question from Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞 (Tami Zakaria) 提出的下一個問題。

Staying on backlog, I think orders were down in the third quarter. Have you seen any improvement in order trends quarter-to-date, or if orders continue to be down? What would support a good year in 2024, like you mentioned in your call?

繼續積壓，我認為第三季的訂單有所下降。您是否看到本季迄今為止的訂單趨勢有任何改善，或者訂單是否繼續下降？正如您在電話會議中提到的，什麼能夠支撐 2024 年的美好一年？

Yes. Again, we expected some moderation in order rates based on, again, improving availability. So that wasn't a surprise to us. Again, what would give us another good year in 2024 is market conditions. I mean, again, if we look at where we are in most of the markets we serve, we feel quite good.

是的。同樣，我們預計訂單率會因可用性的提高而放緩。所以這對我們來說並不奇怪。再次強調，2024 年我們將迎來另一個美好的一年，那就是市場狀況。我的意思是，如果我們看看我們在所服務的大多數市場中的情況，我們會感覺非常好。

Starting with just with Construction Industries in North America, the infrastructure investments that are being made by the government, although we are starting -- we have seen some benefit of that, we expect more benefit in 2024. Residential, although the growth rate has continued to moderate in North America, it is still growing. Oil and gas still remains quite healthy for solar turbines. Gas compression in oil and gas is strong as well.

從北美的建築業開始，政府正在進行基礎設施投資，儘管我們剛剛開始，但我們已經看到了一些好處，我們預計 2024 年會有更多好處。住宅，儘管增長率仍在繼續在北美，這一數字仍在增加。對於太陽能渦輪機來說，石油和天然氣仍然相當健康。石油和天然氣中的氣體壓縮也很強。

So again, there's a lot of positive things of power generation. Data center growth continues to provide a tailwind as well. So again, there's a lot. The market conditions would lead us to believe that we'll have another good year next year.

再說一次，發電有很多正面的一面。資料中心的成長也持續提供推動力。再說一遍，有很多。市場狀況將使我們相信明年我們將迎來另一個美好的一年。

And Tami, just to add again a little bit more. Remind you that, specifically in the third quarter, there were 2 factors which did impact order rates. One, which is, obviously as we talked about, the Cat engine changeover for a number of quarters, that happening in the fourth quarter. If you think about when dealers will place orders for BCP machines, they would tend to impact us in the third quarter, which is why we saw those order rates decline. Similarly, we also saw some excavator in orders decline in anticipation of dealers reducing their inventory levels as well. So overall, those are specific factors in the third quarter themselves which actually moderated the overall order rates as well.

塔米，我想再補充一點。提醒您，特別是在第三季度，有兩個因素確實影響了訂單率。其中之一，正如我們所討論的，顯然是卡特彼勒引擎在多個季度的更換，發生在第四季度。如果您考慮經銷商何時會下 BCP 機器訂單，他們往往會在第三季對我們產生影響，這就是我們看到訂單率下降的原因。同樣，我們也看到一些挖土機的訂單下降，因為經銷商預計也會減少庫存水準。總的來說，這些是第三季本身的具體因素，實際上也調節了整體訂單率。

Maybe just another comment about the BCP changeover. We deliberately limit the number of orders because we have a fixed amount of machines being built prior to that changeover to the new model. And then we closed the order board at some point when we run out of allocation spots, and we haven't yet opened the order board for the new model. So again, that helps explain the reduction in order rates for BCP around that engine changeover.

也許只是關於 BCP 轉換的另一條評論。我們故意限制訂單數量，因為在轉換為新型號之前我們正在製造固定數量的機器。然後，當我們用完分配名額時，我們關閉了訂單板，並且我們還沒有打開新型號的訂單板。同樣，這有助於解釋圍繞引擎更換 BCP 訂單率的下降。

And again, as expected, we also have talked about the fact that we expect dealers to bring down excavator inventory. And again, that would reflect -- that would result in a lower order rate as well for CI for excavators. Again, none of this is surprising.

正如預期的那樣，我們還談到了我們希望經銷商減少挖土機庫存的事實。同樣，這也將導致挖土機 CI 的訂單率降低。同樣，這一切都不足為奇。

And we'll take our next question from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們將回答 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer 提出的下一個問題。

My question is on resources, and it's going to be basically on business model, revenue model and margin. And so you announced the deal with Freeport today on retrofit of autonomous mining trucks. And I know you've had retrofit for a while. I don't recall an announcement quite this big, although maybe I've missed 1 or 2.

我的問題是關於資源的，基本上是關於商業模式、收入模式和利潤率的。因此，您今天宣布與自由港達成關於改造自動採礦卡車的協議。我知道你已經進行改造有一段時間了。我不記得有這麼大的公告，儘管我可能錯過了一兩個。

But the question is really, as you see deals like that, you deliver value to customers through autonomous operations, saving direct and indirect costs. How do you think about margin support for you guys? And then how do you think about market share going forward? I think a year ago, you'd sort of run a large majority of autonomous mining contracts or tenders out there. And I'm wondering if you can give us an update on that.

但問題實際上是，正如您看到這樣的交易，您可以透過自主運作為客戶提供價值，從而節省直接和間接成本。您如何看待你們的保證金支持？那麼您如何看待未來的市場佔有率？我認為一年前，你會負責大部分自主採礦合約或招標。我想知道您能否提供我們最新情況。

So kind of market share, margin and business development.

市場佔有率、利潤率和業務發展都是如此。

You bet. And Rob, we had talked in the past about the fact that we are very bullish about our autonomous solution. We do believe we have the best solution in the industry because our trucks move faster, and we're able to allow our customers to produce more commodity in a 24-hour period. We continue to invest in our autonomous capabilities and continue to add more value. And that's really resulting in us receiving the orders like the one that was announced this morning. Certainly, we're always striving to add more value, that helps. Again, it's not just about cost competition, it's providing more value to customers to make them more successful.

你打賭。羅布，我們過去曾談到我們非常看好我們的自主解決方案。我們確實相信我們擁有業內最好的解決方案，因為我們的卡車移動速度更快，並且我們能夠讓我們的客戶在 24 小時內生產更多的商品。我們繼續投資我們的自主能力並繼續增加更多價值。這確實導致我們收到了像今天早上宣布的那樣的訂單。當然，我們一直在努力增加更多價值，這很有幫助。再次強調，這不僅是成本競爭，而是為客戶提供更多價值，使他們更成功。

We have talked about the fact that our customers in mining now are displaying capital discipline. That's not surprising. Quotation activity is quite high, and number of parked trucks is low. So again, if one thinks about the energy transition, combines that with our autonomous solution, we do feel good about Resource Industries, particularly in mining, moving forward.

我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即我們的採礦業客戶現在正在表現出資本紀律。這並不奇怪。報價活躍度較高，停放卡車數量較少。因此，如果人們考慮能源轉型，並將其與我們的自主解決方案結合起來，我們確實對資源產業（尤其是採礦業）的發展感到滿意。

And we'll take our next question from David Raso with Evercore.

我們將回答 Evercore 的 David Raso 提出的下一個問題。

The question is on the fourth quarter margins. I know the framework you historically worked within for providing margin guidance, but I must say the fourth quarter, I mean, it's implying a range of EPS that you can drive a truck through.

問題在於第四季的利潤率。我知道你們過去提供利潤指引的框架，但我必須說第四季度，我的意思是，它意味著你可以駕駛卡車通過的一系列每股收益。

So I'm just trying to get a little better sense of -- I think I heard you say the margins in CI and RI slightly below the third quarter, and E&T similar. But then when you gave that -- yes, that range of whatever you think your sales are, I mean, we have a rough idea of what you're thinking for sales given the fourth quarter guide.

所以我只是想更了解一下——我想我聽到你說 CI 和 RI 的利潤率略低於第三季度，E&T 的利潤率也類似。但是，當你給出——是的，無論你認為你的銷售額是多少的範圍，我的意思是，根據第四季度的指導，我們對你對銷售的想法有一個粗略的了解。

I'm just trying to get a sense of margins year-over-year at least appear that they'll be up. Is that a fair statement? But the slight on RI and CI almost make it seem like it's down only 100 bps or 150 sequentially. So I apologize for the granularity, but it's just a wide, wide range. I just want to make sure we understand.

我只是想了解每年的利潤率，至少看起來會上升。這是一個公平的說法嗎？但 RI 和 CI 的輕微下降幾乎讓它看起來只連續下降了 100 個基點或 150 個基點。所以我對粒度很抱歉，但它的範圍很廣。我只是想確保我們理解。

Yes, David, thank you. So obviously, was slightly different so if you got to think about it from a sequential basis and also year-over-year. So we try to give a little bit of color on both.

是的，大衛，謝謝你。顯然，情況略有不同，所以如果你必須從連續的基礎上以及逐年地考慮它。所以我們嘗試給兩者都賦予一點色彩。

On a sequential basis, we do expect obviously both CI and RI margins to decline. If you think normally, there's a seasonality for both of those. What exacerbates that probably above the normal level of seasonality, particularly in CI, is the expectation for volume to impact -- be impacted by dealer inventory. So that will have a slightly bigger impact than normal on CI.

從環比來看，我們確實預期 CI 和 RI 利潤率都會大幅下降。如果您通常認為，這兩者都有季節性。導致銷售量可能受到經銷商庫存影響的預期可能會超過季節性的正常水平，尤其是在 CI 中。所以這對 CI 的影響會比正常情況稍大。

On E&T, as I said, we expect them to be broadly flat compared to the third quarter. Some of that is due to product mix and timing of international rail deliveries, which are low-margin business. Then on top of that -- so that's sequential, quarter-over-quarter driving that.

在 E&T 方面，正如我所說，我們預計與第三季相比將基本持平。其中部分原因是產品組合和國際鐵路運輸的時間安排，這些都是低利潤業務。除此之外，這是連續的、逐季推動的。

And then if you look year-over-year, obviously, yes, we do expect both CI and RI and E&T to show margin improvement year-over-year. What will slightly offset that will be some increase in corporate items as a result of the true-up of incentive comp that I talked about a moment ago.

然後，如果你逐年觀察，顯然，是的，我們確實預期 CI、RI 和 E&T 的利潤率將逐年提高。由於我剛才談到的激勵補償的調整，公司專案的一些增加將稍微抵消這一影響。

On a PPS basis, offsetting that will be some favorability in other income and expense. Because last year, if you remember, we did have a big onetime charge for currency translation losses which impacted the fourth quarter. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit more color overall, but that's sort of trying to get the way we can guide you from a margin perspective. Hopefully, that's helpful.

在 PPS 的基礎上，其他收入和支出中的一些優惠將抵消這一點。因為去年，如果你還記得的話，我們確實有一筆很大的一次性貨幣換算損失費用，這影響了第四季。因此，希望這能為您帶來更多的整體色彩，但這有點試圖找到我們可以從利潤角度指導您的方式。希望有幫助。

We will take our next question from Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀的史蒂文費雪提出的下一個問題。

So clearly, terrific margins this year. Pricing is such a strong driver at the moment but year-over-year, as you said, it's moderating a bit. I'm just curious about your strategy on how to manage in a lower pricing growth environment going forward. I mean, to what extent do you think you can ramp up the cost focus there? And if that's a key part of the plan, kind of what are the biggest opportunities for cost savings next year? Or do you think just sort of a narrower price versus cost is really just the base case from here?

很明顯，今年的利潤率很高。目前，定價是一個強勁的推動因素，但正如您所說，與去年同期相比，定價有所放緩。我只是好奇你們如何在未來較低的定價成長環境中進行管理的策略。我的意思是，您認為您可以在多大程度上加強對成本的關注？如果這是該計劃的關鍵部分，那麼明年節省成本的最大機會是什麼？或者您認為價格與成本之間的較窄範圍實際上只是這裡的基本情況？

Well, thank you, Steven. And as we mentioned, we do expect pricing to moderate just based on lapping the price increase that -- increases that we had last year.

嗯，謝謝你，史蒂文。正如我們所提到的，我們確實預計定價會根據去年的價格上漲而放緩。

We're continually focused on having a lower cost structure. We're looking for ways to reduce structural cost. A lot of things there. Back office now being performed in lower-cost countries, more engineering done in lower-cost countries, looking at ways to become more efficient. I also mentioned the fact that we -- supply chain has improved, but we still have some challenges and some surprises there that create some incremental cost due to inefficiencies based on having shortages.

我們不斷致力於降低成本結構。我們正在尋找降低結構成本的方法。那裡有很多東西。後台辦公室現在在成本較低的國家進行，更多的工程在成本較低的國家完成，尋找提高效率的方法。我還提到，我們的供應鏈已經有所改善，但我們仍然面臨一些挑戰和一些意外，由於短缺導致效率低下，這些挑戰和意外造成了一些增量成本。

So I do believe there's still an opportunity for us moving forward to operate more efficiently in our manufacturing operations and also to find ways to reduce structural costs. We really try to make that a way of life going forward, is always finding ways to reduce structural costs.

因此，我確實相信我們仍然有機會提高製造業務的營運效率，並找到降低結構成本的方法。我們確實在努力使其成為一種未來的生活方式，並且始終在尋找降低結構成本的方法。

And we will take our next question from Tim Thein with Citigroup.

我們將回答花旗集團蒂姆·泰恩的下一個問題。

Maybe just continuing on that thread there in terms of pricing and just thinking about kind of the outlook into '24. I'm interested from a competitive dynamic. If you look historically, especially focused in CI, in a market with a lot of global competitors and just looking at the dollar-yen relationship where it is at near decade-high levels, just maybe talk about what you're seeing, what your dealers are seeing from competitive dynamics and your thoughts into '24 in terms -- and how that interplays with pricing?

也許只是繼續討論定價方面的話題，並思考 24 年的前景。我對競爭動態感興趣。如果你從歷史角度來看，特別是關注 CI，在一個有很多全球競爭對手的市場中，並且只關注處於近十年高位的美元兌日元關係，也許可以談談你所看到的，你的經銷商正在從競爭動態和您對24 世紀的想法中看到——這與定價如何相互作用？

Yes. A lot of dynamics there. One, of course, is the strength of the market. So if you think about the strength of the market in North America for the reasons we described, infrastructure spending and continued growth in residential. And certainly, we feel good about market conditions.

是的。那裡有很多動態。當然，其中之一就是市場的實力。因此，如果您考慮北美市場的實力，我們所描述的原因包括基礎設施支出和住宅的持續成長。當然，我們對市場狀況感覺良好。

Competition, we've always had competition, we always will. We make pricing decisions based on a whole variety of factors. Certainly, we look at input cost, we look at our competitors, we look at other factors in the market, and we make decisions. There's no one big decision. We make a whole variety of decisions based on what we're seeing in the market at any one time.

競爭，我們一直都有競爭，而且永遠都會。我們根據各種因素做出定價決策。當然，我們會考慮投入成本、競爭對手、市場中的其他因素，然後做出決策。沒有一項重大決定。我們隨時根據市場狀況做出各種決策。

We're always focused on remaining competitive, pricing for value. No one likes to raise prices. But of course, in the last couple of years, we've been in an inflationary cost environment. But we're always looking to add more value to our customers, adding technology, things to make our customers more efficient. And you stop and think about the labor shortage that we have now. Some of the technology that we're putting into our Construction Industries products allows less experienced operators to be more effective more quickly. And so all those kinds of things help add value to our customers.

我們始終專注於保持競爭力和價值定價。沒有人喜歡提高價格。但當然，在過去幾年中，我們一直處於通貨膨脹的成本環境中。但我們一直在尋求為客戶增加更多價值，增加技術，使我們的客戶更有效率。你停下來想一想我們現在面臨的勞動力短缺問題。我們在建築業產品中採用的一些技術可以讓經驗不足的操作員更快地提高效率。因此，所有這些事情都有助於為我們的客戶增加價值。

And of course, we're investing in our digital capabilities and our services capabilities as well to help reduce downtime, unplanned downtime, increase productivity. So that all goes into it. But certainly, we recognize it's a competitive world out there, always has been and always will be. But we feel confident about our ability to continue to compete effectively.

當然，我們也在投資我們的數位能力和服務能力，以幫助減少停機時間、計劃外停機時間，並提高生產力。這樣一切就都進去了。但當然，我們體認到這是一個充滿競爭的世界，過去一直如此，將來也永遠如此。但我們對繼續有效競爭的能力充滿信心。

And we will take our next question from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行 Nicole DeBlase 提出的下一個問題。

Just on the parts demand, noticed that you guys called out a decline in aftermarket parts in resource as a driver of volume decline there. If you could talk a little bit about that. And then any color on parts demand in construction or E&T?

就零件需求而言，注意到你們指出售後零件資源的下降是銷量下降的驅動因素。如果你能談談這一點的話。那麼建築或E&T 中零件的顏色需求是什麼？

Yes, Nicole, thank you. Within Resource Industries, the volume did decline. It doesn't necessarily mean the absolute dollar value declined, but the volume decline was partly due to dealer buying patterns. And so that was a factor within resources.

是的，妮可，謝謝你。在資源產業內，數量確實有所下降。這並不一定意味著絕對美元價值下降，但成交量下降的部分原因是經銷商的購買模式。所以這是資源中的一個因素。

Overall, we're still very comfortable with the growth rate of aftermarket parts volumes. And we'll give you the update as per normal, as I said in my remarks, in January. But overall, services revenues still continue to grow and are a very good factor for us, as you know, given our drive to double services revenue to $28 billion by 2026.

總體而言，我們對售後零件銷售的成長率仍然非常滿意。正如我在一月份的演講中所說，我們將照常向您提供最新情況。但總體而言，服務收入仍在繼續增長，這對我們來說是一個非常好的因素，如您所知，因為我們致力於在 2026 年將服務收入翻一番，達到 280 億美元。

And dealer sales to customers were up in the quarter.

本季經銷商對客戶的銷售增加。

Yes.

是的。

And we will take our next question from Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

我們將回答查德·迪拉德和伯恩斯坦提出的下一個問題。

More of a bigger-picture question. So I was hoping you could give us an update on your approach to rental. So to what extent are you looking to expand your footprint through dealers in this channel? And if you can share, how much of your sales today come through this channel today? And then if we do see any near-term air pocket, do you think any fleet expansion could provide an offset?

更多的是一個更大的問題。所以我希望您能為我們介紹一下您的租賃方法的最新情況。那麼，您希望透過該管道的經銷商在多大程度上擴大您的足跡？如果您可以分享一下，您今天的銷售額有多少來自這個管道？然後，如果我們確實看到任何近期的空洞，您認為任何機隊擴張可以提供抵消嗎？

Yes, we do see rental as a growth opportunity, and we're working with our dealers to improve our rental business. We set up a new division in the last year or so with a senior -- experienced Senior Vice President leading that division to help increase rental.

是的，我們確實將租賃視為一個成長機會，我們正在與經銷商合作改善我們的租賃業務。我們在去年左右成立了一個新部門，由一位經驗豐富的高級副總裁領導該部門，以幫助提高租金。

The rental industry is, in fact, growing. And so we've been refreshing our rental growth strategy and working with our dealers to allow them to more sustainably grow revenue in rental. So again, it's -- we do think it's an opportunity. It's a good one for us to be focused on.

事實上，租賃業正在成長。因此，我們一直在更新我們的租金成長策略，並與我們的經銷商合作，使他們能夠更永續地增加租金收入。再說一次，我們確實認為這是一個機會。這對我們來說是件好事，值得我們關注。

And we will take our next question from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

我們將回答克里斯汀歐文和奧本海默提出的下一個問題。

I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more commentary on the manufacturing cost increase in the quarter, just how to think about that going forward. I mean, this was -- this is the easiest comparison of the year, and in a more favorable cost environment. So just trying to think about how much of the manufacturing cost increase was maybe related to timing of orders versus we're still seeing some inflation in the supply chain.

我想知道您是否可以對本季的製造成本增加提供更多評論，以及如何思考未來的情況。我的意思是，這是今年最簡單的比較，而且是在更有利的成本環境下進行的。因此，只要想一想，製造成本的增加有多少可能與訂單時間有關，而我們仍然看到供應鏈出現了一些通貨膨脹。

Yes. We are still seeing -- it's a bit mixed across the businesses. Material costs are still growing in some areas and other areas growing less rapidly. So that's sort of the bigger part of that from an overall manufacturing cost perspective.

是的。我們仍然看到——各個企業的情況有點混雜。一些地區的材料成本仍在增長，而其他地區的增長速度則放緩。因此，從整體製造成本的角度來看，這是其中更大的一部分。

Other factors include things like, particularly for us this quarter, things like absorption impacted us, particularly in Resource Industries, for example, where we built inventory last year and had inventory reductions this year. But overall, we are seeing lower levels of manufacturing cost inflation that we have done historically and partly offset by some benefits in freight which are helping us.

其他因素包括，特別是對我們本季而言，吸收等因素對我們產生了影響，特別是在資源產業，例如，我們去年建立了庫存，今年減少了庫存。但總體而言，我們看到歷史上製造成本通膨水平較低，並且部分被貨運方面的一些好處所抵消，這對我們有幫助。

Really does depend by segment, by segment. So one of the things just to remind everybody, we are not a uniform business as far as we only serve one market. We serve a variety of different markets. Markets are in different parts of the growth phase as a result of post the COVID impact. That means that, therefore, that some of those cost increases are coming through in a different way from business to business, as well as then our ability to price to offset some of that as well.

確實取決於細分市場。因此，其中一件事只是提醒大家，我們不是統一的企業，因為我們只服務一個市場。我們服務於各種不同的市場。由於新冠疫情後的影響，市場處於成長階段的不同階段。因此，這意味著，其中一些成本增加的方式因企業而異，而且我們的定價能力也有能力抵消其中的一些成本。

And we will take our next question from Mig Dobre with Baird.

我們將回答 Mig Dobre 和 Baird 提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to ask a question surrounding dealer inventories. They built 2.6 billion year-to-date, which seems to be a little bit different than the way you were framing expectations.

我想問一個有關經銷商庫存的問題。今年迄今為止，他們創造了 26 億美元，這似乎與您預期的方式有點不同。

So I guess I'm curious, first, how do you expect dealer inventory still exiting 2023? Why is there a bit of a variance relative to your initial expectations? And lastly, if we are indeed going into a bit of a dealer destock mode, does it stand to infer that your incoming orders are going to continue to be soft, and obviously, backlog continues to erode?

所以我想我很好奇，首先，您預計 2023 年經銷商庫存仍將如何？為什麼與您最初的期望有些差異？最後，如果我們確實進入了經銷商去庫存模式，是否可以推斷您的新訂單將繼續疲軟，並且積壓訂單顯然會繼續減少？

Yes. So Mig, a couple of comments. One, which we tried to explain in the last quarter. We -- dealer inventory, we give you one number for 150 independent dealers with a very large number of products underneath that and underpinning it. So it is very complex.

是的。米格，有幾點評論。一，我們在上個季度試圖解釋這一點。我們——經銷商庫存，我們為您提供 150 個獨立經銷商的一個數字，該數字下面有大量產品並支撐著它。所以它非常複雜。

Secondly, CI is a slightly different model from RI and E&T. E&T and RI represent about 40% of the increase in dealer inventory. That's really a function of commissioning. Over 70% of those orders are for firm customer orders. They're not sitting on a lot waiting for somebody to come in and buy them. So there, effectively, it's less -- it's more difficult to predict because it depends on the commissioning time.

其次，CI 與 RI 和 E&T 的模型略有不同。 E&T 和 RI 約佔經銷商庫存增量的 40%。這確實是一個調試功能。其中超過 70% 的訂單是確定的客戶訂單。他們不會坐以待斃，等待有人進來購買。因此，實際上，它更難以預測，因為它取決於調試時間。

And obviously, it's also more difficult to predict because of the nature of the business and that -- how they are moved through. For example, a large mining truck which is disassembled and then reassembled on site, and the revenue recognition coming from the dealer as part of that. So it's a very different part of the business. That's why effectively we almost can't predict that with much certainty. It is much more difficult to predict.

顯然，由於業務的性質以及它們的運作方式，預測也更加困難。例如，大型礦用卡車在現場拆解後重新組裝，其中一部分來自經銷商的收入確認。所以這是業務中非常不同的部分。這就是為什麼我們幾乎無法準確地預測這一點。預測要困難得多。

With regards to CI, we've always said probably normal range is between 3 and 4 months of inventory. At the moment, we're within that range. Dealers will have, within excavator inventory, they're slightly at the top end of that range. They want to bring them down. We agree with that. We think that's a good thing. That will reduce, obviously, inventories as we move in.

關於 CI，我們一直說正常範圍可能是 3 到 4 個月的庫存。目前，我們就在這個範圍內。經銷商的挖土機庫存量略高於該範圍的上限。他們想把他們打倒。我們同意這一點。我們認為這是一件好事。顯然，當我們搬進來時，這會減少庫存。

Within, as we've said, with BCP and also with earthmoving, particularly in North America, which are the largest markets for those products, we are at the low end of the range, and dealers could actually want to hold a little bit more.

正如我們所說，在 BCP 和土方工程方面，特別是在北美，這些產品的最大市場，我們處於該範圍的低端，經銷商實際上可能希望持有更多一點。

So overall, net-net, we do expect a decline in the fourth quarter. It's going to have an impact, possibly. Will there be some impact in the first quarter next year? Probably not. Just remind you, we normally see a dealer inventory build in the first quarter of the year getting ahead of -- ready for summer selling season, so it may not be quite as big as normal. But overall, there are some seasonality parts of our business.

因此，總體而言，我們確實預計第四季會出現下降。可能會產生影響。明年第一季會有影響嗎？可能不會。請提醒您，我們通常會看到經銷商庫存在今年第一季建立，為夏季銷售季節做好準備，因此可能不會像正常情況那麼大。但總體而言，我們的業務存在一些季節性部分。

With regards to the backlog, backlog is completely different. Remember, for CI, backlog is a function of dealer orders. For E&T, it's a function of -- and RI, it's much more a function of firm customer orders underpinning those.

至於積壓，積壓是完全不同的。請記住，對於 CI 來說，積壓訂單是經銷商訂單的函數。對於 E&T 來說，它是 RI 的函數，而 RI 則更多是支撐這些訂單的確定客戶訂單的函數。

Within -- so as we think about dealers, how much inventory they're holding, as they are able to get availability better for machines, they don't need to order as much in advance. So one of the things we've done, as you know, through our S&OP process is trying to moderate overorders. And we think we're doing a better job of trying to avoid some of the swings which caused production swings as a result of dealer inventory buying patents.

當我們考慮經銷商時，他們持有多少庫存，因為他們能夠更好地獲得機器的可用性，所以他們不需要提前訂購那麼多。如您所知，我們透過 S&OP 流程所做的事情之一就是嘗試控制超額訂單。我們認為我們在避免經銷商庫存購買專利而導致生產波動方面做得更好。

Overall, just to remind you, finally, we still expect sales to users to grow in the fourth quarter of this year. We're still expecting our end demand to remain strong, and that sets us up into 2024 as we move forward.

總的來說，最後提醒您，我們仍然預期今年第四季的用戶銷售額將會成長。我們仍然預計最終需求將保持強勁，這為我們邁向 2024 年奠定了基礎。

And we will take our next question from Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson.

我們將回答 Mike Shlisky 和 ​​D.A. 提出的下一個問題。戴維森。

I wanted to ask about interest rates real quick. On interest rates, you kind of touched on it, but maybe a little more color. How have high interest rates or higher interest rates affected the dealership inventory desire and their ability to actually pull and carry inventory?

我想快速詢問利率。關於利率，你有點觸及它，但也許有更多的色彩。高利率或更高的利率如何影響經銷商的庫存需求及其實際拉動和攜帶庫存的能力？

And secondly, maybe how is interest rates -- have they affected any end user appetite to buy any equipment?

其次，也許利率如何——它們是否影響了最終用戶購買任何設備的興趣？

Yes. So first of all, let me say on higher interest rates, probably today, just remind you that even though there are many of us who remember 5% as being the norm of interest rates, I know we've lived it through lower for the last decade.

是的。首先，讓我談談更高的利率，可能是今天，只是提醒您，儘管我們很多人都記得 5% 是利率的標準，但我知道我們已經經歷了較低的利率過去十年。

Overall, though, it's really a function of dealers hold inventory based on what their expectations of future demand are. Are comfortable holding at current levels of inventory, and as I said, we'd like to hold more for particularly BCP and earthmoving products and hold a little bit less of excavators. But that's a reflection of their expectations of sales to users rather than actually of interest rates. I think they're a little bit less sensitive to that assuming that they can actually sell the equipment on.

但總體而言，這實際上是經銷商根據對未來需求的預期持有庫存的函數。在目前的庫存水準上，我們可以放心持有，正如我所說，我們希望持有更多的庫存，特別是 BCP 和土方產品，並減少一點挖掘機的庫存。但這反映了他們對用戶銷售的預期，而不是實際的利率。我認為他們對此不太敏感，因為假設他們實際上可以出售設備。

As far as actually our customers are concerned, where it does impact us within Caterpillar is in Cat Financial. We have seen a slight reduction in the share of new machines we are financing within Cat Financial because we fund in the wholesale market. So we're slightly less competitive against banks. But generally, customers have either been paying cash. They need -- they have to work, so they have been sensitive to interest rates in as far as buying machines is concerned.

實際上，就我們的客戶而言，它確實對 Caterpillar 內部的我們產生影響的是 Cat Financial。我們發現 Cat Financial 內融資的新機器份額略有下降，因為我們在批發市場提供資金。因此，我們相對於銀行的競爭力稍差。但一般來說，顧客要嘛支付現金。他們需要——他們必須工作，所以就購買機器而言，他們對利率很敏感。

And overall, if you look, and it's one thing we keep a very close focus on, write-offs, past dues and the like, and provision levels, we are -- our customers are in very robust shape and do not appear to be being impacted by the higher interest rates yet. So nothing we've seen yet tend to indicate that there's any impact of that today on that business.

總的來說，如果你看一下，我們非常密切關注的一件事是沖銷、逾期未付款等以及撥備水平，我們的客戶狀況非常強勁，而且似乎並不仍受到較高利率的影響。因此，我們尚未看到任何跡象表明這一事件對該業務有任何影響。

We will take our next question from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛傑瑞‧雷維奇 (Jerry Revich) 提出的下一個問題。

Jim, I'm wondering if you could just talk about where lead times stand in mining equipment. I know it's a broad range of products, but can you get us a sense for how far visibility you have?

吉姆，我想知道您是否可以談談採礦設備的交貨時間。我知道產品範圍很廣，但是您能否讓我們了解您的知名度有多大？

And if you're willing to quantify the comments you made earlier about really good pipeline just within the context of relative to the really strong bookings rate we've had year-to-date, any way to quantify the pipeline versus the bookings run rate we've been at?

如果您願意在相對於我們今年迄今為止的非常強勁的預訂率的背景下量化您之前對真正良好的管道所做的評論，那麼有任何方法可以量化管道與預訂運行率我們去過?

Yes. So we have been working hard to bring lead times down, as I mentioned. We do feel good about where we are in that process. And so we had over the last couple of years, some challenges around availability, but it has gotten better in most areas. Probably the area that's still a challenge is large engines. But in mining, we do feel good about where we are in terms of the progress we've made around lead times.

是的。因此，正如我所提到的，我們一直在努力縮短交貨時間。我們確實對自己在這個過程中所處的位置感覺良好。因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們在可用性方面遇到了一些挑戰，但在大多數領域都變得更好。也許仍面臨挑戰的領域是大型引擎。但在採礦業，我們確實對我們在交付週期方面取得的進展感到滿意。

Yes. And as far as the quoting activity, there is a lot of activity, Jerry, going on. As we've said, one of this slight disappointment was slightly, we would have anticipated more of that coming into order rates. There seem to be some slight delay in actually pushing the button on committing to firm orders as we have seen.

是的。傑瑞，就報價活動而言，正在進行許多活動。正如我們所說，這種輕微的失望之一是輕微的，我們本來預計會有更多的訂單率出現這種情況。正如我們所看到的，在實際按下確定訂單的按鈕方面似乎存在一些輕微的延遲。

Abby, we have time for one more question.

艾比，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Today's final question will come from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

今天的最後一個問題將來自史蒂夫·福克曼和傑弗里斯的對話。

I just wanted to go back to rental, if I could. And I'm curious, Jim, would you characterize the Cat dealer rental fleets in terms of size? Do they want more equipment? And can you also just comment on what you think the age would be in that Cat rental fleet?

如果可以的話，我只想回去出租。我很好奇，Jim，您能描述一下 Cat 經銷商租賃車隊的規模嗎？他們想要更多設備嗎？您能否評論一下您認為 Cat 租賃車隊的年齡？

Yes. One of the things that's been happening over the last year or so is that there has been some upgrading of that fleet because it had gotten quite old because of some of the supply challenges we've had. And so I'm reluctant to characterize the size of that in total. But again, we are working with our dealers to help them grow rental. We want them to have a successful, profitable rental business. And that means having the right size of rental inventory for the amount of business that they execute.

是的。過去一年左右發生的事情之一是，該機隊進行了一些升級，因為由於我們遇到的一些供應挑戰，它變得相當陳舊。因此，我不願意描述其整體規模。但我們再次與經銷商合作，幫助他們增加租金。我們希望他們擁有成功、有獲利的租賃業務。這意味著擁有適合其執行業務量的租賃庫存規模。

So again, it has been a bit aged. It's improved a bit, but there's still some room there to have newer machines going into the fleet because it had, again, gotten quite aged. And again, our expectation here is, as we grow rental, that the fleet should grow. But again, we want -- the goal is not to have higher -- bigger size rental fleets. The goal is to have profitable, growing rental businesses by our dealers, which they will want to be as efficient as they can with turns. And -- but over time, that should result in larger rental fleets.

再說一次，它已經有點老化了。它有所改進，但仍然有一些空間可以讓更新的機器進入機隊，因為它再次變得相當老化。再說一次，我們的期望是，隨著租金的成長，機隊也應該成長。但我們再次強調，我們的目標不是擁有更高規模的租賃車隊。我們的目標是讓我們的經銷商擁有獲利且不斷成長的租賃業務，他們希望輪流盡可能有效率。而且隨著時間的推移，這應該會導致租賃車隊規模的擴大。

All right. Well, thank you. That was our last question. Thanks, you all, for joining us, and we always appreciate your questions.

好的。嗯，謝謝。這是我們最後一個問題。感謝大家加入我們，我們非常感謝您提出問題。

I'd like to just close by thanking our team for another great quarter. As I mentioned earlier, due to our strong results in the third quarter, we now do believe that 2023 will be even better than we had previously anticipated during our last call, and that includes higher full year expectations for adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. And that reflects continuing healthy customer demand and our strong operating performance.

最後，我想感謝我們的團隊又創造了一個出色的季度。正如我之前提到的，由於我們第三季度的強勁業績，我們現在確實相信2023 年將比我們之前在上次電話會議中預期的更好，其中包括對調整後營業利潤率和ME&T 免費的全年預期更高現金週轉。這反映了持續健康的客戶需求和我們強勁的經營績效。

And we're continuing to execute our strategy and invest for long-term profitable growth. And we look forward to updating you again in January.

我們將繼續執行我們的策略並投資以實現長期獲利成長。我們期待在一月份再次為您提供最新消息。

Great. Thanks, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll also find the third quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com then click on Financials to view those materials.

偉大的。謝謝吉姆、安德魯和今天加入我們的所有人。今天上午晚些時候，我們將在網上重播我們的電話會議。一旦有文字記錄，我們也將立即在我們的投資者關係網站上發布。您還可以找到我們財務長的第三季業績影片以及包含我們向用戶銷售資料的 SEC 文件。點擊 Investors.caterpillar.com，然後點擊「財務」以查看這些資料。

If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. The general phone number is (309) 675-4549.

如果您有任何疑問，請聯絡 Rob 或我。一般電話號碼是 (309) 675-4549。

Now we'll turn it over to Abby to conclude the call.

現在我們將把它交給艾比來結束通話。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may all disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。你們都可以斷開連線。