開拓重工 (CAT) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the First Quarter 2024 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you. Please go ahead.

歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人瑞安費德勒 (Ryan Fiedler)。謝謝。請繼續。

Thanks, Audra. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's First Quarter of 2024 Earnings Call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior Director of IR.

謝謝，奧德拉。大家早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。我是瑞安費德勒 (Ryan Fiedler)，投資者關係副總裁。今天與我一起出席的有董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby；安德魯‧邦菲爾德，財務長； Kyle Epley，全球金融服務部資深副總裁；以及 IR 資深總監 Rob Rengel。

During our call, we'll be discussing the first quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations. The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to Slide 2.

在我們的電話會議中，我們將討論今天早些時候發布的第一季財報。您可以在 Investors.caterpillar.com 的「活動和簡報」中找到我們的幻燈片、新聞稿和網路廣播回顧。本次通話的內容受美國及國際版權法保護。未經 Caterpillar 事先書面許可，禁止轉播、轉發、複製或散佈本內容的全部或部分內容。轉到投影片 2。

During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to the recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，這些聲明存在風險和不確定性。我們也將做出一些假設，實際結果可能與我們在本次電話會議中與您分享的資訊有所不同。請參閱最近向 SEC 提交的文件以及新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明提醒，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預測產生重大差異的單獨或總體因素的詳細資訊。我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細討論了我們認為可能對我們的業務持續產生重大影響的許多因素。在今天的電話會議上，我們還將提及非 GAAP 數據。有關任何非 GAAP 數據與相應的美國 GAAP 數據的調節，請參閱收益電話會議投影片的附錄。

Now I'll turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby。

Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'd like to start by thanking our global team for delivering another strong quarter, including higher adjusted operating profit margin, record adjusted profit per share and strong ME&T free cash flow. Our strong balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow allowed us to deploy a record $5.1 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter. Our results reflect a continuation of healthy demand for our products and services across most of our end markets. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continuing to invest for long-term profitable growth. I'll begin with my perspectives about our performance in the quarter. I'll then provide some insights about our end markets, followed by an update on our sustainability journey.

謝謝，瑞安。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。首先，我要感謝我們的全球團隊再次實現強勁的季度業績，包括更高的調整後營業利潤率、創紀錄的調整後每股利潤以及強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流。我們強勁的資產負債表和 ME&T 自由現金流使我們能夠在第一季部署創紀錄的 51 億美元現金用於股票回購和股息。我們的業績反映了大多數終端市場對我們產品和服務的持續健康需求。我們仍然專注於執行我們的策略並繼續投資以實現長期獲利成長。我將首先談談我對本季業績的看法。然後，我將提供一些有關我們終端市場的見解，然後介紹我們永續發展之旅的最新情況。

It was another strong quarter. Sales and revenues were about flat in the quarter versus last year, broadly in line with our expectations. Services revenues increased in the quarter. Our adjusted operating profit increased by 5% to $3.5 billion. Adjusted operating profit margin was slightly better than we expected and improved to 22.2%, up 110 basis points versus last year. We achieved record adjusted profit per share of $5.60, up 14%. We also generated strong ME&T free cash flow in the quarter of $1.3 billion. In addition, our backlog increased to $27.9 billion, up $400 million versus the fourth quarter of 2023. We continue to expect 2024 sales and revenues to be broadly similar to the record 2023 level.

這是又一個強勁的季度。本季的銷售額和收入與去年同期基本持平，基本上符合我們的預期。本季度服務收入有所增長。調整後的營業利潤成長了 5%，達到 35 億美元。調整後營業利益率略優於我們預期，提高至 22.2%，較去年上升 110 個基點。我們實現了創紀錄的調整後每股獲利 5.60 美元，成長 14%。我們還在本季產生了 13 億美元的強勁 ME&T 自由現金流。此外，我們的積壓訂單增加至 279 億美元，比 2023 年第四季增加了 4 億美元。

We have revised our full year 2024 segment expectations to reflect a slightly stronger top line in Energy & Transportation, offset by softening in the European market for Construction Industries. We anticipate services to be higher in 2024 as we strive to achieve our 2026 target of $28 billion. For the year, we continue to expect adjusted operating profit margin in ME&T free cash flow to be in the top half of our target ranges.

我們修改了 2024 年全年細分市場預期，以反映能源和運輸領域的略強營收，但卻被歐洲建築業市場的疲軟所抵消。隨著我們努力實現 2026 年 280 億美元的目標，我們預計 2024 年的服務將會更高。今年，我們繼續預期 ME&T 自由現金流的調整後營業利潤率將位於我們目標範圍的上半部。

Turning to Slide 4. In the first quarter of 2024, sales and revenues remained about flat at $15.8 billion. Compared to our expectations, sales volume was slightly lower, while price realization, including geographic mix, was better than we anticipated. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, overall sales to users decreased 5%. This was slightly lower than we expected, mainly due to weakness in Europe for Construction Industries. Energy & Transportation continued to show strength where sales to users increased 9%. For machines, which includes Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users declined by 9%.

轉向投影片 4。2024 年第一季度，銷售額和收入基本持平，為 158 億美元。與我們的預期相比，銷售量略低，而價格實現（包括地理組合）則優於我們的預期。與 2023 年第一季相比，向用戶的整體銷售額下降了 5%。這略低於我們的預期，主要是因為歐洲建築業疲軟。能源與交通持續表現強勁，用戶銷售額成長 9%。對於包括建築業和資源行業在內的機器，用戶銷售額下降了 9%。

Focusing on Construction Industries sales to users were down 5%. In North America, our largest geographic region for Construction Industries, sales to users increased as expected and demand remained healthy for both nonresidential and residential construction. Construction projects as well as government-related infrastructure continue to benefit nonresidential demand. Although residential sales to users in North America were down slightly, demand for new housing remains strong. Sales to users declined in EAME, primarily due to weakness in Europe related to residential construction and economic conditions. Latin America and Asia Pacific sales to users also saw some declines.

專注於建築業的用戶銷售額下降了 5%。在北美，我們建築業最大的地理區域，對用戶的銷售量按預期增長，非住宅和住宅建築的需求保持健康。建設項目以及政府相關基礎設施繼續有利於非住宅需求。儘管北美用戶的住宅銷售略有下降，但對新住房的需求仍然強勁。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的用戶銷售量下降，主要是由於歐洲住宅建設和經濟狀況疲軟。拉丁美洲和亞太地區的用戶銷售額也出現了一些下降。

In Resource Industries, sales to users declined 17% in the first quarter compared to a very strong first quarter in 2023. Mining as well as heavy construction and quarry and aggregates were lower mainly due to softness in off-highway and articulated trucks that we mentioned during our last earnings call. In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 9%. Oil and gas sales to users benefited from strong sales of turbines and turbine-related services. We also saw increased sales of reciprocating engines in the gas compression and well servicing oil and gas applications. Power generation sales to users grew as market conditions remain favorable, including strong data center growth. Transportation sales to users increased, while Industrial declined as we expected from strong levels last year.

在資源產業，與2023 年第一季的強勁表現相比，第一季度向用戶的銷售額下降了17%。提到的非公路和鉸接式卡車的疲軟在我們上次的財報電話會議上。在能源和交通領域，用戶銷售額成長了 9%。對用戶的石油和天然氣銷售受益於渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務的強勁銷售。我們也看到氣體壓縮和石油天然氣應用領域的往復式引擎的銷量增加。由於市場條件仍有利，包括資料中心的強勁成長，對用戶的發電銷售成長。對用戶的運輸銷售有所增加，而工業銷售則如我們預期的那樣從去年的強勁水平下降。

In total, dealer inventory increased by $1.4 billion versus the fourth quarter. For machines, dealer inventory increased by $1.1 billion, which was slightly higher than our expectations, largely due to sales to users being modestly lower than anticipated. The increase in machine dealer inventory is consistent with normal seasonal patterns of which Construction Industries products accounted for the majority of the increase. The total level of machine dealer inventory is comfortably within the typical range. As I mentioned, backlog increased to $27.9 billion up $400 million versus the fourth quarter of 2023 led by Energy & Transportation. Backlog remains elevated as a percentage of revenues compared to historical levels. Adjusted operating profit margin increased to 22.2% in the first quarter, a 110 basis point increase over last year, which was slightly better than we anticipated. This was primarily due to better-than-expected manufacturing costs mainly related to freight.

經銷商庫存總計比第四季增加了 14 億美元。對於機器而言，經銷商庫存增加了 11 億美元，略高於我們的預期，主要是由於對用戶的銷售額略低於預期。機械經銷商庫存的增加符合正常的季節性模式，其中建築業產品佔增量的大部分。機器經銷商庫存的總水準處於正常範圍內。正如我所提到的，積壓訂單增加至 279 億美元，與 2023 年第四季相比增加了 4 億美元，其中能源與運輸部門處於領先地位。與歷史水準相比，積壓訂單佔收入的百分比仍然較高。第一季調整後營業利益率增至22.2%，比去年增加110個基點，略優於我們預期。這主要是由於與運費相關的製造成本優於預期。

Moving to Slide 5. We generated strong ME&T free cash flow of $1.3 billion in the first quarter. We deployed $5.1 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter including the initiation of a $3.5 billion accelerated share repurchase program, which may last up to 9 months. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases.

轉向幻燈片 5。我們在第一季部署了 51 億美元現金用於股票回購和股息，包括啟動 35 億美元的加速股票回購計劃，該計劃可能持續長達 9 個月。我們仍然為自己的股息貴族地位感到自豪，並繼續期望隨著時間的推移，透過股息和股票回購將大部分 ME&T 自由現金流返還給股東。

Now on Slide 6, I'll describe our expectations moving forward. We expect a continuation of healthy demand across most of our end markets for our products and services. We continue to anticipate 2024 sales and revenues to be broadly similar to the record 2023 level. As I mentioned, we expect services to continue to grow in 2024. We currently do not anticipate a significant change in dealer inventory of machines in 2024 compared to a $700 million increase in 2023. This is expected to be a headwind to sales in 2024. As a reminder, dealers are independent businesses and manage their own inventories.

現在，在投影片 6 上，我將描述我們未來的期望。我們預計大多數終端市場對我們的產品和服務的需求將持續健康。我們繼續預期 2024 年的銷售額和收入將與 2023 年創紀錄的水平大致相似。正如我所提到的，我們預計服務將在2024 年繼續成長。 。

The vast majority of dealer inventories in Energy & Transportation are backed by firm customer orders. The timing of these products being recognized as sales to users is impacted by dealer packaging and commissioning, which is why it's difficult to predict dealer inventory in E&T. This is why we have become more explicit about the differentiation between machine dealer inventory and total dealer inventory. As I mentioned, we anticipate that our 2024 results will be within the top half of our target ranges for both adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. Our strong results continue to reflect the diversity of our end markets as well as the disciplined execution of our strategy for profitable growth.

能源和運輸領域的絕大多數經銷商庫存均由確定的客戶訂單支援。這些產品被確認為向用戶銷售的時間受到經銷商包裝和調試的影響，這就是為什麼 E&T 中很難預測經銷商庫存的原因。這就是為什麼我們對機器經銷商庫存和經銷商總庫存之間的差異變得更加明確。正如我所提到的，我們預計 2024 年的業績將位於調整後營業利潤率和 ME&T 自由現金流目標範圍的上半部。我們的強勁業績持續反映了我們終端市場的多樣性以及我們獲利成長策略的嚴格執行。

Now I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets, starting with Construction Industries. In North America, after a very strong 2023, we continue to expect demand in the region will remain healthy in 2024 for both nonresidential and residential construction. We anticipate nonresidential construction to remain at similar levels to slightly higher demand levels compared to last year due to construction projects as well as government-related infrastructure. Residential construction demand is expected to be flat to slightly down versus last year which remains strong in comparison to historical levels. In Asia Pacific, outside of China, we are seeing some softening in economic conditions. We anticipate demand in China will remain at a relatively low level for the above 10-ton excavator industry.

現在我將討論我們對主要終端市場的前景，從建築業開始。在北美，經過 2023 年的強勁成長後，我們繼續預計該地區的非住宅和住宅建築需求將在 2024 年保持健康。由於建設項目以及政府相關基礎設施的影響，我們預計非住宅建設將保持在與去年相似的水平，但需求水平略高。住宅建築需求預計將與去年持平或略有下降，與歷史水平相比仍然強勁。在中國以外的亞太地區，我們看到經濟狀況已疲軟。我們預計中國10噸以上挖土機產業的需求將維持在相對較低的水平。

In the EAME, we anticipate that weak economic conditions in Europe will continue somewhat offset by strong construction activity in the Middle East. Construction activity in Latin America remains mixed, but overall, we are expecting modest growth. In addition, we expect the ongoing benefit of our services initiatives will positively impact Construction Industries in 2024.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們預計歐洲疲軟的經濟狀況將繼續在一定程度上被中東強勁的建築活動所抵消。拉丁美洲的建築活動仍然喜憂參半，但總體而言，我們預計將出現溫和成長。此外，我們預計我們的服務計劃的持續效益將在 2024 年對建築業產生積極影響。

Next, I'll discuss Resource Industries. After a strong performance in 2023 in mining, as well as heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we anticipate lower machine volume versus last year, primarily due to off-highway and articulated trucks. In addition, we anticipate a small decrease in Resource Industries dealer inventories during 2024 versus a slight increase last year. While we continue to see a high level of quoting activity overall, we anticipate lower order rates as customers display capital discipline.

接下來，我將討論資源產業。 2023 年採礦業以及重型建築、採石場和骨材領域表現強勁後，我們預計機器數量將低於去年，這主要是由於非公路和鉸接式卡車的影響。此外，我們預計 2024 年資源產業經銷商庫存將小幅下降，而去年則略有增加。雖然我們繼續看到整體報價活動處於高水平，但我們預計，隨著客戶表現出資本紀律，訂單率將會下降。

We expect to see higher services revenues, including robust rebuild activity. Customer product utilization remains high, the number of parked trucks remains low and the age of the fleet remains elevated and our autonomous solutions continue to see strong customer acceptance. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for long-term profitable growth.

我們預計服務收入將會增加，包括強勁的重建活動。客戶產品利用率仍然很高，停放的卡車數量仍然很低，車隊的車齡仍然很高，我們的自動駕駛解決方案繼續得到客戶的強烈認可。我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，能源轉型將支持大宗商品需求的增加，擴大我們的潛在市場總量，並為長期獲利成長提供更多機會。

Moving to Energy & Transportation. In oil and gas, we expect reciprocating engines and services to be about flat after strong 2023 performance. We expect reciprocating gas compression demand to be higher in 2024 than it was in 2023. While servicing demand in North America is expected to soften.

轉向能源和交通。在石油和天然氣領域，我們預計往復式引擎和服務在 2023 年表現強勁後將基本持平。我們預計 2024 年往復式氣體壓縮需求將高於 2023 年。

Cat reciprocating engine demand for power generation is expected to remain strong, largely due to continued data center growth relating to cloud computing and generative AI. Last quarter, I mentioned we are making a multiyear capital investment in our larger reciprocating engine division, including increasing capacity for both new engines and aftermarket parts. This investment will approximately double output for large engines and aftermarket parts as compared to 2023. We leverage these large engines across a variety of applications, including data centers, oil and gas, large mining trucks and distributed power generation.

Cat 往復式引擎的發電需求預計將保持強勁，這主要是由於與雲端運算和產生人工智慧相關的資料中心的持續成長。上個季度，我提到我們正在對更大的往復式發動機部門進行多年資本投資，包括增加新發動機和售後零件的產能。與2023 年相比，這項投資將使大型發動機和售後零件的產量增加一倍。 。

For Solar Turbines, our backlog and quoting activity both remained strong for oil and gas and power generation. As we said previously, industrial demand is expected to soften relative to a strong 2023. In transportation, we anticipate high-speed marine to increase as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets.

對於 Solar Turbines，我們的石油和天然氣以及發電方面的積壓訂單和報價活動均保持強勁。正如我們之前所說，相對於 2023 年的強勁，工業需求預計將疲軟。

Moving to Slide 7. I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey. We are contributing to a reduced carbon future and continue to invest in new products, technologies and services to help our customers achieve their climate-related objectives.

轉到幻燈片 7。我們正在為減少碳排放的未來做出貢獻，並繼續投資新產品、技術和服務，以幫助我們的客戶實現其與氣候相關的目標。

In January, we announced the signing of an electrification and strategic agreement with CRH to advance the deployment of Caterpillar's zero-exhaust-emission solutions. CRH is the #1 aggregates producer in North America and the first company in that industry to sign such an agreement with Caterpillar. The agreement is focused on accelerating the deployment of Caterpillar 70 to 100 ton-class battery electric off-highway trucks and charging solutions at a CRH site in North America. Through the agreement, CRH will participate in Caterpillar's early learner program for battery electric off-highway trucks.

一月份，我們宣布與CRH簽署電氣化策略協議，以推進卡特彼勒零排放解決方案的部署。 CRH 是北美排名第一的骨材生產商，也是該行業第一家與 Caterpillar 簽署此類協議的公司。該協議的重點是加快卡特彼勒 70 至 100 噸級純電動非公路卡車和充電解決方案在北美 CRH 站點的部署。透過該協議，CRH 將參與 Caterpillar 的電池電動非公路卡車早期學習者計畫。

In February, Caterpillar oil and gas announced the launch of the Cat hybrid energy storage solution to help drillers and operators cut fuel consumption, lower total cost of ownership and reduce emissions in oil and gas operations. The custom designed energy storage system stores excess power from the job site and then discharge it as needed. In a hybrid system that combines the Cat hybrid energy storage solution in a natural gas fuel generator set, the transient response is even quicker than the conventional deal only rigs.

今年 2 月，卡特彼勒石油和天然氣公司宣布推出 Cat 混合能源儲存解決方案，以幫助鑽井公司和營運商降低油耗、降低整體擁有成本並減少石油和天然氣營運中的排放。客製化設計的儲能係統儲存來自工作現場的多餘電力，然後根據需要進行放電。在將 Cat 混合儲能解決方案與天然氣燃料發電機組結合的混合系統中，瞬態響應甚至比傳統的純交易鑽孔機更快。

Depending upon site configuration the hybrid energy storage solution has proven to deliver up to 30% fuel cost savings with natural gas, 85% fuel cost savings with fuel gas and up to an 80% reduction in nitrogen oxides. Carbon dioxide equivalent reductions up to 11% and 7% are possible with natural gas and field gas, respectively. In addition, we look forward to issuing our 19th annual sustainability report in May. The material in our report reinforce our ongoing commitment to sustainability.

根據現場配置，混合能源儲存解決方案已證明使用天然氣可節省高達 30% 的燃料成本，使用燃氣可節省 85% 的燃料成本，並可減少高達 80% 的氮氧化物。使用天然氣和現場天然氣可分別減少高達 11% 和 7% 的二氧化碳當量。此外，我們期待在 5 月發布第 19 份年度永續發展報告。我們報告中的材料強化了我們對永續發展的持續承諾。

With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

這樣，我就把它交給安德魯。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin by commenting on the first quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I'll discuss the balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow before concluding with a few comments on the full year and our assumptions for the second quarter.

謝謝吉姆，大家早安。我將首先評論第一季的業績，包括我們各部門的業績。然後我將討論資產負債表和 ME&T 自由現金流，然後對全年進行一些評論以及我們對第二季的假設。

Beginning on Slide 8. Our operating performance was strong with both adjusted operating profit margin and adjusted profit per share being better than we had expected. Sales and revenues of $15.8 billion were about flat compared to the prior year, broadly in line with our expectations. Adjusted operating profit increased by 5% to $3.5 billion, and the adjusted operating profit margin was 22.2%, an increase of 110 basis points versus the prior year, which was slightly better than we had expected. Profit per share was $5.75 in the first quarter compared to $3.74 in the first quarter of last year. Adjusted profit per share increased by 14% to $5.60 in the first quarter compared to $4.91 last year. Adjusted profit per share excluded net restructuring income of $0.15 per share. This compares to restructuring expense of $1.17, which was excluded in the first quarter of 2023.

從投影片 8 開始。銷售額和收入為 158 億美元，與去年持平，基本上符合我們的預期。調整後營業利益成長5%，達到35億美元，調整後營業利益率為22.2%，較上年增加110個基點，略優於我們的預期。第一季每股利潤為 5.75 美元，去年第一季為 3.74 美元。第一季調整後每股獲利成長 14%，達到 5.60 美元，去年同期為 4.91 美元。調整後每股利潤不包括每股 0.15 美元的淨重組收入。相比之下，重組費用為 1.17 美元，2023 年第一季未計入重組費用。

Other income of $156 million for the quarter was higher than the first quarter of 2023 by $124 million. This is primarily related to favorable ME&T balance sheet translation. The provision for income taxes in the first quarter, excluding discrete items, reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 22.5% compared with 23% in the first quarter of 2023. Included in profit per share and adjusted profit per share was a benefit of $38 million or $0.08 for a discrete tax item related to stock-based compensation. A comparable benefit of $32 million or $0.06 per share was included in the first quarter of 2023.

該季度其他收入為 1.56 億美元，比 2023 年第一季增加 1.24 億美元。這主要與有利的 ME&T 資產負債表轉換有關。第一季的所得稅撥備（不包括離散項目）反映出全球年度有效稅率為22.5%，而2023 年第一季為23%。收益百萬或 0.08 美元，用於與股票薪酬相關的離散稅項。 2023 年第一季包含 3,200 萬美元或每股 0.06 美元的可比收益。

The year-over-year impact of a reduction in the number of shares, primarily due to share repurchases over the past year had a favorable impact on adjusted profit per share of approximately $0.24. This included a favorable impact from the initial shares we received to the $3.5 billion accelerated share repurchase agreement that Jim mentioned earlier.

股票數量減少（主要是由於過去一年的股票回購）導致的同比影響對調整後每股利潤產生了有利影響，約為 0.24 美元。這包括我們收到的初始股票對吉姆之前提到的 35 億美元加速股票回購協議的有利影響。

Before I move on, you will have seen some additional detail on the earnings release segment commentaries. We continue to highlight the primary drivers of year-over-year changes in sales and profit by segment, as we have done previously, but in addition, we are now also quantifying those significant variances. You will also find some additional information on historical dealer inventory, including at the machine level in the appendix of today's slides.

在我繼續之前，您將看到有關收益發布部分評論的一些其他詳細資訊。正如我們之前所做的那樣，我們繼續強調按細分市場銷售和利潤同比變化的主要驅動因素，但此外，我們現在也在量化這些重大差異。您還可以在今天幻燈片的附錄中找到有關歷史經銷商庫存的一些其他信息，包括機器級別的信息。

Moving to Slide 9. I'll discuss our top line results in the first quarter. Sales remained about flat compared to the prior year as lower volume was largely offset by favorable price realization. The decline in volume was primarily due to lower sales to users. As Jim mentioned, the 5% decrease in sales to users was slightly more than our expectations, mainly driven by weakness in Europe for Construction Industries.

轉向投影片 9。與上年相比，銷售額基本上持平，銷量下降在很大程度上被有利的價格實現所抵消。銷量下降主要是由於用戶銷量下降。正如 Jim 所提到的，用戶銷售額下降 5% 略高於我們的預期，主要是由於歐洲建築業疲軟。

Changes in total dealer inventories did not have a significant impact on sales as the increase of $1.4 billion in the quarter was similar to the increase last year. As Jim mentioned, the $1.1 billion increase in machines was slightly higher than we had anticipated, primarily as sales to users were modestly lower than we had expected. As compared to our expectations for the quarter, sales were broadly in line. Sales volume was slightly lower than we had anticipated, while price realization, including geographic mix, was better than we had expected. By segment, sales in Construction Industries were lower than we had anticipated, while sales in Energy & Transportation exceeded our expectations. Resource Industries sales were about in line.

經銷商庫存總量的變化並未對銷售額產生重大影響，該季度增加了 14 億美元，與去年的增幅相似。正如 Jim 所提到的，機器 11 億美元的成長略高於我們的預期，主要是因為對使用者的銷售額略低於我們的預期。與我們對本季的預期相比，銷售額基本上符合預期。銷售量略低於我們的預期，而價格實現（包括地理組合）則優於我們的預期。按細分市場劃分，建築業的銷售額低於我們的預期，而能源和運輸業的銷售額超出了我們的預期。資源工業公司的銷售額基本上符合預期。

Moving to operating profit on Slide 10. First quarter operating profit increased by 29% to $3.5 billion. As a reminder, the prior year included a $586 million charge that rose from the divestiture of the company's Longwall business. Adjusted operating profit increased by 5% to $3.5 billion. Price realization benefited the quarter, while lower sales volume acted as a partial offset.

轉到投影片 10 的營業利潤。提醒一下，上一年包括因剝離公司長壁業務而產生的 5.86 億美元費用。調整後營業利潤成長 5%，達到 35 億美元。價格實現使本季受益，而銷售下降則部分抵銷了這一影響。

The adjusted operating profit margin of 22.2% improved by 110 basis points versus the prior year. Margins were slightly better than we had anticipated, mainly due to favorable manufacturing costs as freight costs were lower than we had expected. Price including a benefit from geographic mix was also better than we had anticipated.

調整後營業利益率為 22.2%，較前一年提高 110 個基點。利潤率略優於我們的預期，主要是因為運費成本低於我們的預期，有利的製造成本。包括地理組合帶來的好處的價格也比我們預期的要好。

Now on Slide 11, I'll review segment performance starting with Construction Industries. Sales decreased by 5% in the first quarter to $6.4 billion, primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. Sales were slightly lower than we had anticipated. Sales in North America increased by 6% in the quarter. In the EAME region, sales fell by 25%, and in particular, Europe was lower than we had anticipated, impacted by weakness in residential construction and economic conditions. In Latin America, our sales decreased by 1%. In Asia Pacific sales decreased by 14%.

現在，在投影片 11 上，我將從建築業開始回顧細分市場的績效。第一季銷售額下降 5%，至 64 億美元，主要是由於銷量下降，但部分被有利的價格實現所抵消。銷售額略低於我們的預期。本季北美銷售額成長 6%。在 EAME 地區，銷售額下降了 25%，尤其是歐洲，受住宅建設和經濟狀況疲軟的影響，銷售額低於我們的預期。在拉丁美洲，我們的銷售額下降了 1%。亞太地區銷售額下降 14%。

First quarter profit for Construction Industries was $1.8 billion, a slight decrease versus the prior year. The decrease was mainly due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization and manufacturing costs. The segment's margin of 27.5% was an increase of 100 basis points versus the last year. This was better than we had expected due to favorable manufacturing costs, which largely reflected lower freight costs.

建築業第一季利潤為 18 億美元，比上年略有下降。下降的主要原因是銷量下降，但部分被有利的價格實現和製造成本所抵消。該部門的利潤率為 27.5%，比去年增加了 100 個基點。由於有利的製造成本，這比我們的預期要好，這在很大程度上反映了運輸成本的降低。

Turning to Slide 12. Resource Industries sales decreased by 7% in the first quarter to $3.2 billion, which was about in line with our expectations. The decrease was primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. The decrease in sales volume was mainly driven by lower sales of equipment to end users, which Jim explained. First quarter profit for Resource Industries decreased by 4% versus the prior year to $730 million. The decrease was mainly due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization. The segment's margin of 22.9% was an increase of 60 basis points versus last year. This is better than we had expected on stronger price and favorable manufacturing costs, driven mainly by lower freight costs.

轉向投影片 12。下降的主要原因是銷量下降，但部分被有利的價格實現所抵消。吉姆解釋說，銷量下降主要是由於向最終用戶銷售的設備減少所致。資源產業第一季獲利較前一年下降 4%，至 7.3 億美元。下降的主要原因是銷量下降，但部分被有利的價格實現所抵消。該部門的利潤率為 22.9%，比去年增加了 60 個基點。這比我們預期的要好，因為價格走強，製造成本有利，這主要是因為貨運成本下降。

Now on Slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 7% in the first quarter to $6.7 billion. The increase was primarily due to higher sales volume and favorable price. Sales were stronger than we had expected, mostly due to increased deliveries of large engines. By application, power generation sales increased by 26%. Oil and gas sales improved by 19%, transportation sales were higher by 9%, while industrial sales decreased by 21%. First quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 23% versus the prior year to $1.3 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price realization. The segment's margin of 19.5% was an increase of 260 basis points versus the prior year. The margin was significantly stronger than we had anticipated due to lower-than-expected manufacturing costs, higher volume and better price.

現在請參閱投影片 13。這一增長主要是由於銷量增加和價格優惠。銷售強於我們的預期，主要是由於大型引擎的交付量增加。按用途分，發電量增加26%。石油和天然氣銷售成長 19%，運輸銷售成長 9%，而工業銷售下降 21%。能源與交通第一季獲利較上年同期成長 23%，達到 13 億美元。這一增長主要是由於有利的價格實現。該部門的利潤率為 19.5%，比前一年增加了 260 個基點。由於低於預期的製造成本、更高的產量和更好的價格，利潤率明顯高於我們的預期。

Moving to Slide 14. Financial Products revenues increased by 10% to $991 million primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions and higher average net earning assets in North America. Segment profit was strong, increasing by 26% to $293 million. The increase was mainly due to an insurance settlement and a favorable impact from equity securities. Our portfolio continues to perform well as past dues remain near historical lows at 1.78%, a 22 basis point improvement compared to the first quarter of 2023. This is the lowest first quarter past dues since 2006. In addition, the allowance rate was our lowest on record of 1.01%. Business activity remains strong as new business volume increased versus the prior year, primarily driven by North America. We continue to see strong demand for used equipment and inventories remain close to historically low levels, with just slight increases over recent quarters.

轉到投影片 14。部門利潤強勁，成長 26% 至 2.93 億美元。這一增長主要是由於保險和解以及股本證券的有利影響。我們的投資組合持續表現良好，逾期率仍接近歷史低點1.78%，與2023 年第一季相比提高了22 個基點。率是我們最低的創紀錄的1.01%。業務活動依然強勁，新業務量較上年增加，這主要是由北美推動的。我們繼續看到對二手設備的強勁需求，庫存仍接近歷史低位，最近幾季僅略有成長。

Moving on to Slide 15. As Jim mentioned, ME&T free cash flow remained strong. We generated $1.3 billion in the quarter after taking into account the $1.7 billion payments made for 2023 short-term incentive compensation and CapEx spend of about $500 million. Spend for both short-term incentive compensation and CapEx was higher than it was in the first quarter of 2023. For the full year, we expect to be in the top half of our ME&T free cash flow target range, which correlates to between $7.5 billion and $10 billion. We still expect to spend between $2 billion and $2.5 billion in CapEx and we will continue to prioritize investments around AACE, which is autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity and digital, and electrification.

轉到幻燈片 15。考慮到 2023 年短期激勵薪酬的 17 億美元付款和約 5 億美元的資本支出，我們本季創造了 13 億美元的收入。短期激勵薪酬和資本支出的支出均高於 2023 年第一季。我們仍然預計在資本支出上花費 20 億至 25 億美元，並且我們將繼續優先考慮圍繞 AACE 的投資，即自動駕駛、替代燃料、連接性和數位化以及電氣化。

Moving to capital deployment. We continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Of the record $5.1 billion of cash deployed in the first quarter share repurchase spend was $4.5 billion, including the $3.5 billion accelerated share repurchase, or ASR, the $3.5 billion were deployed in the first quarter and the ASR agreement may last for up to 9 months. The ASR provides us with favorable pricing as compared to shorter-term ASRs, which we have carried out previously, which makes it more attractive. Prices finally determined relative to the volume weighted average price or VWAP over the duration of the agreement. Approximately 70% of the shares were delivered to the company upfront, but the balance calculated when the agreement is terminated based on the actual average VWAP.

轉向資本部署。我們繼續期望隨著時間的推移，透過股息和股票回購，將大部分 ME&T 自由現金流返還給股東。第一季部署的創紀錄的51 億美元現金中，股票回購支出為45 億美元，其中包括35 億美元的加速股票回購（ASR），其中35 億美元是在第一季部署的，ASR協議可能持續長達9 個月。與我們之前進行的短期 ASR 相比，ASR 為我們提供了更優惠的定價，這使其更具吸引力。最終價格根據協議期間的成交量加權平均價格或 VWAP 決定。約70%的股份預先交付給公司，但協議終止時的餘額是根據實際平均成交量計算。

As a reminder, our objective is to be in the market on a more consistent basis for share repurchases. So this is a great mechanism for us to use. As I mentioned, our balance sheet remains strong. We have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $5 billion, and we hold an additional $2.2 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash.

提醒一下，我們的目標是在更一致的基礎上進入市場進行股票回購。所以這是我們可以使用的一個很好的機制。正如我所提到的，我們的資產負債表仍然強勁。我們擁有充足的流動性，企業現金餘額為 50 億美元，另外還持有 22 億美元的期限稍長的流動性有價證券，以提高現金收益率。

Moving to Slide 16, I will share our high-level assumptions for the full year. As compared to a quarter ago, our assumptions for the full year generally remain unchanged. On the top line, we anticipate broadly similar sales and revenues as compared to the record 2023 level, consistent with what we mentioned last quarter. Although our top level sales expectations remain the same, segment inputs have shifted a bit.

前往投影片 16，我將分享我們對全年的高層假設。與第一季前相比，我們對全年的假設總體保持不變。在營收方面，我們預期銷售和收入與 2023 年創紀錄的水平大致相似，這與我們上季度提到的一致。儘管我們的最高銷售預期保持不變，但細分市場的投入發生了一些變化。

We now see a slightly stronger top line in Energy & Transportation after a strong first quarter, while our expectations have been tempered slightly in Construction Industries due to economic conditions in the European market. We continue to expect slightly favorable price realization versus the prior year. Our expectations on dealer inventory also remain unchanged. We currently do not expect a significant change in dealer inventory of machines in 2024 compared to a $700 million increase in 2023. This is expected to be a headwind to sales. We also continue to anticipate another year of services growth across each of our primary segments as we strive to achieve our 2026 target of $28 billion in services revenues.

經過第一季的強勁表現後，我們現在看到能源和運輸業的營收略有成長，而由於歐洲市場的經濟狀況，我們對建築業的預期略有下降。我們繼續預計價格實現將較上年略有改善。我們對經銷商庫存的預期也保持不變。目前，我們預計 2024 年經銷商機器庫存不會有重大變化，而 2023 年將增加 7 億美元。我們也繼續預計，在我們努力實現 2026 年 280 億美元服務收入目標的過程中，我們每個主要細分市場的服務將再次成長。

At the segment level, we now expect Construction Industries sales to users to be slightly lower compared to 2023 due to the softer economic conditions in Europe. We expect demand in North America to remain at healthy levels, as Jim discussed. We also anticipate changes in dealer inventory to act as a headwind to Construction Industries sales in 2024. We expect sales service revenues to be positive versus the prior year. In Resource Industries, we continue to expect lower sales impacted by lower machine volume, primarily in off-highway and articulated trucks where the comparison versus the prior year is challenging. We anticipate changes in dealer inventory to act as a headwind to sales in this segment as well.

在細分市場層面，由於歐洲經濟狀況疲軟，我們現在預期建築業對使用者的銷售額將略低於 2023 年。正如吉姆所討論的那樣，我們預計北美的需求將保持在健康水平。我們也預期經銷商庫存的變動將成為 2024 年建築業銷售的阻力。在資源產業，我們繼續預計，由於機器銷售下降，銷售額將下降，主要是非公路和鉸接式卡車，與前一年相比具有挑戰性。我們預期經銷商庫存的變化也會對該細分市場的銷售構成阻力。

In Energy & Transportation, our 2024 sales expectations have increased slightly after the strong first quarter. We continue to see strong demand for reciprocating engines in power generation as well as healthy order and quoting activity for solar turbines for both oil and gas and power generation. This supports our improved optimism for higher sales in Energy & Transportation in 2024. Also, as typical seasonality would suggest, we expect to see some sales ramp in Energy & Transportation as we move through the full year.

在能源與交通領域，繼第一季強勁表現之後，我們對 2024 年的銷售預期略有上升。我們繼續看到發電領域對往復式發動機的強勁需求，以及用於石油、天然氣和發電的太陽能渦輪機的良好訂單和報價活動。這支持了我們對2024 年能源和運輸部門銷售額成長的樂觀態度。 。

On full-year adjusted operating profit margin, we continue to expect to be in the top half of the margin target range at our expected sales levels. As I mentioned last quarter, we expect a relatively small pricing benefit to be weighted towards the first half of the year, given carryover from increases in the second half of last year. We now expect flattish manufacturing costs this year versus the prior year as we anticipate more favorable freight costs, although the unfavorable impact from cost absorption could act as a partial offset. As I mentioned a quarter ago, given better availability this year, we anticipate shipping a more normal mix of products this year. We anticipate this dynamic may act as a slight headwind to margins.

就全年調整後營業利潤率而言，我們繼續預計在我們預期的銷售水平下將處於利潤率目標範圍的上半部分。正如我上季度提到的，考慮到去年下半年成長的結轉，我們預計今年上半年的定價效益將相對較小。我們現在預計今年的製造成本將與去年持平，因為我們預計運費成本將更加有利，儘管成本吸收的不利影響可能會部分抵銷。正如我一個季度前提到的，鑑於今年的可用性更好，我們預計今年將推出更正常的產品組合。我們預計這種動態可能會對利潤率產生輕微的阻力。

SG&A and R&D expenses are expected to ramp through the remainder of the year as we continue to invest in strategic initiatives and in future long-term profitable growth. This will be offset by the benefit of lower short-term incentive compensation. In addition, from a segment perspective, keep in mind that margins in Construction Industries tend to trend lower as the year progresses. Finally, we continue to anticipate restructuring costs to $300 million to $450 million this year, and our expectation for annual effective tax rate, excluding discrete items, is now 22.5%.

隨著我們繼續投資於策略性舉措和未來的長期獲利成長，SG&A 和研發費用預計將在今年剩餘時間內大幅增加。這將被較低的短期激勵薪酬的好處所抵消。此外，從細分市場的角度來看，請記住，隨著時間的推移，建築業的利潤率往往會下降。最後，我們繼續預計今年的重組成本為 3 億至 4.5 億美元，並且我們對年度有效稅率（不包括離散項目）的預期目前為 22.5%。

Now on Slide 17, I'll discuss our expectations for the second quarter, starting with the top line. We expect lower sales in the second quarter compared to the prior year as we anticipate a headwind due to changes in dealer inventory of machines which will impact volumes. We expect the dealer inventory machines to decline this quarter in line with normal seasonal trends versus the atypical $200 million increase that occurred in the second quarter of 2023. However, we anticipate a continuation of healthy demand across most of our end markets for our products and services and price is expected to remain positive year-over-year. Following the typical season of the pattern, we do expect higher sales in the second quarter as compared to the first.

現在，在投影片 17 上，我將討論我們對第二季的預期，從營收開始。我們預計第二季的銷售額將低於去年同期，因為我們預期經銷商機器庫存的變化將影響銷量，從而帶來不利影響。我們預計經銷商庫存機器本季將按照正常季節性趨勢下降，而 2023 年第二季非典型增加 2 億美元。價格預計將年比保持正值。按照典型的季節模式，我們預計第二季的銷售額將高於第一季。

By segment compared to the prior year, we anticipate lower sales in Construction Industries as we expect changes in dealer inventory to act as a headwind. Favorable price should that provide a partial offset. We expect lower sales in Resource Industries versus the prior year driven by lower volume, partially offset by favorable price. In Energy & Transportation, we anticipate similar sales versus the prior year. On enterprise margins in the second quarter, we expect the adjusted operating profit margin to be similar to the prior year and lower versus the first quarter following the typical seasonal pattern.

與前一年相比，按細分市場劃分，我們預期建築業的銷售額將下降，因為我們預期經銷商庫存的變化將成為不利因素。優惠的價格應該可以提供部分抵銷。我們預期資源產業的銷售額將較上年下降，原因是銷量下降，但部分被有利的價格所抵銷。在能源和運輸領域，我們預期銷售額與前一年類似。在第二季度的企業利潤率方面，我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將與去年持平，並低於第一季度，遵循典型的季節性模式。

As compared to the prior year, we expect that price will remain favorable from the continued carryover benefit from increases taken in the second half of 2023. We expect flattish manufacturing costs compared to the prior year as favorable freight is expected to offset the impacts of unfavorable cost absorption. We also anticipate an increase in SG&A and R&D expenses related to strategic investments although this will be offset by lower short-term incentive compensation. By segment, in both Construction Industries and Resource Industries, we expect similar margins in the second quarter compared to the prior year as we expect favorable price to be offset by lower volume.

與前一年相比，我們預計，由於2023 年下半年產量成長帶來的持續結轉效益，價格將保持有利。影響成本吸收。我們也預期與策略性投資相關的銷售、行政管理和研發費用將會增加，儘管這將被較低的短期激勵性薪酬所抵銷。以細分市場來看，在建築業和資源業，我們預期第二季的利潤率與去年同期相似，因為我們預期有利的價格將被銷售下降所抵銷。

In Energy & Transportation, we expect a higher margin versus the prior year on better price and favorable mix. Unfavorable manufacturing costs and SG&A, and R&D spend related to strategic investments are expected to act as a partial offset in this segment. Note that we expect a headwind to enterprise margins and corporate costs in the quarter where we anticipate unfavorable year-over-year impacts from timing differences.

在能源和交通領域，我們預計由於價格更好和產品組合更優惠，利潤率將高於去年。與策略性投資相關的不利的製造成本和銷售、一般行政費用以及研發支出預計將部分抵消該領域的影響。請注意，我們預計本季企業利潤和企業成本將面臨阻力，我們預期時間差異將產生不利的年比影響。

So turning to Slide 18, let me summarize. The strong operating performance continued in this quarter with the adjusted operating profit margin at 22.2% and record adjusted profit per share of $5.60. We deployed a record $5.1 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends in the quarter. Our assumptions for the full year remain similar, and we expect to be in the top half of our target ranges for both adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

現在請看投影片 18，讓我總結一下。本季持續保持強勁的經營業績，調整後營業利潤率為 22.2%，調整後每股利潤創紀錄的 5.60 美元。本季我們部署了創紀錄的 51 億美元現金用於股票回購和股利。我們對全年的假設保持相似，我們預計調整後的營業利潤率和 ME&T 自由現金流都將處於目標範圍的上半部。我們繼續執行長期獲利成長策略。

And with that, we'll take your questions.

接下來，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Tami Zakaria at JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們將回答摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria 提出的第一個問題。

So nice margin performance in the quarter. And hence, my question is around margins. You guided for the second quarter. So if sales are expected to be lower year-over-year, I'm assuming volumes are down too. So what essentially would help margins remain relatively flattish. Is it price -- I know you mentioned some factors, but just wanted more color. Is it price cost? Is it some cost savings initiatives? Or is it something else that's going on? So any color there would be helpful.

本季的利潤率表現非常好。因此，我的問題是關於利潤的。您指導了第二季度。因此，如果預期銷售額將年減，我假設銷量也會下降。那麼，基本上什麼可以幫助利潤率保持相對穩定。是價格嗎——我知道你提到了一些因素，但只是想要更多的顏色。是價格成本嗎？是否有一些節省成本的措施？還是有其他事情正在發生？所以任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. So at the moment, there are two factors. One, which is obviously price will still be positive in the second quarter, and that will help overall margins and will help to offset the impact of lower volume. Also, we do expect to see some flattening of manufacturing costs versus the prior year. Mostly because of freight, we would expect the benefit of lower freight costs to offset the impact of cost absorption which may occur in the quarter. So those are two factors.

是的。所以目前來說，有兩個因素。一是價格顯然在第二季仍將保持正值，這將有助於提高整體利潤率，並有助於抵消銷售下降的影響。此外，我們確實預期製造成本與前一年相比會有所趨平。主要是由於貨運，我們預計貨運成本降低的好處將抵消本季可能發生的成本吸收的影響。所以這是兩個因素。

And then we will expect the increase in investments we're making behind our strategic investments in SG&A and R&D to be offset by lower short-term incentive compensation expense. So those are all the moving parts. But overall, as we said, we expect margins to be about flat year-over-year in the second quarter versus second quarter of 2023.

然後，我們預期我們在銷售、行政管理和研發方面的策略性投資背後的投資增加將被較低的短期激勵性薪酬費用所抵消。這些都是活動部件。但總體而言，正如我們所說，我們預計第二季的利潤率將與 2023 年第二季同比持平。

We'll move next to Michael Feniger at Bank of America.

我們將搬到美國銀行的邁克爾費尼格 (Michael Feniger) 旁邊。

Great. I know you're guiding Q2 sales to be lower year-over-year and the full year would be broadly similar. So maybe you could give us some context of what's driving that second half, that slight pickup? Is it deliveries in a certain market like E&T? And is your expectations that end user dealer retail sales, which pulled back in Q1. Do you think that's the low point for the year, and that starts to improve through the year to match that full year guide? Any context there would be helpful.

偉大的。我知道您預計第二季的銷售額將比去年同期下降，而全年的銷售額將大致相似。那麼也許您可以給我們一些有關下半年推動因素的背景信息，即輕微的回升？是在 E&T 等特定市場交貨嗎？您對最終用戶經銷商零售額的預期是，第一季有所回落。您是否認為這是今年的最低點，並且全年開始有所改善以符合全年指南？任何上下文都會有幫助。

Yes. So overall, as we've said, really what's happening in Q2 is principally the impact on lower volume will be around the impact of dealer inventory movements, particularly on the machine side. Last year, as I said, we actually had a very atypical build in the second quarter. As you know, the historic trend is always during selling season to see particularly on the CI side, dealer inventory to decrease. So that was really the main driver.

是的。因此，總的來說，正如我們所說，第二季度發生的情況主要是經銷商庫存變動對銷售下降的影響，特別是在機器方面。去年，正如我所說，我們實際上在第二季度有一個非常不典型的構建。如您所知，歷史趨勢總是在銷售旺季期間看到，特別是在 CI 方面，經銷商庫存減少。所以這確實是主要驅動力。

Overall, as we've indicated for the year, we still expect a healthy volume in North America in CI. We do have some impact now on Europe. That means we now expect CIs to be slightly lower year-over-year. We are seeing that offset though by expected sales growth in Energy & Transportation where we're seeing more positivity than we've seen. As far as STUs are concerned, Obviously, the first quarter was impacted by those, principally the European conditions, which we mentioned a moment ago. Overall, we're still very comfortable, but the overall guide we've made for the year, which is sales and revenues will be broadly flat with 2023.

總體而言，正如我們今年所指出的那樣，我們仍然預計北美的 CI 銷售將保持健康。我們現在確實對歐洲產生了一些影響。這意味著我們現在預計 CI 將比去年同期略有下降。不過，我們看到能源和運輸領域的預期銷售成長抵消了這一影響，我們看到了比我們所看到的更多的動力。就 STU 而言，顯然，第一季受到了這些因素的影響，主要是我們剛才提到的歐洲狀況。總體而言，我們仍然感到非常滿意，但我們為今年制定的整體指南，即銷售額和收入將與 2023 年大致持平。

We'll move to our next question from Jamie Cook at Truist Securities.

我們將轉向 Truist Securities 的 Jamie Cook 提出的下一個問題。

Nice quarter. Jim, I guess my question, under your leadership, I think the earnings tower of Caterpillar has far exceeded anyone's expectation and a lot of that was driven by the O&E business model and your focus on profitable growth. At the same time, you're allocating -- you've been allocating capital to higher-return products, right? That's part of the strategy. At the same time, you're talking about doubling, I think you said your large engine capacity to meet demand for data centers. And this is now you're lower. At this point, it's your lower-margin segment.

不錯的季度。吉姆，我想我的問題是，在您的領導下，我認為卡特彼勒的盈利塔遠遠超出了任何人的預期，其中很大一部分是由O&E 業務模式和您對盈利增長的關注推動的。同時，你正在分配——你一直在將資本分配給回報率更高的產品，對嗎？這是戰略的一部分。同時，你談到加倍，我想你說的是你的大引擎容量可以滿足資料中心的需求。現在你的地位更低了。此時，這是您的利潤率較低的部分。

So I guess understanding right now within E&T, we have investment in AACE and capacity. But like over time, why should E&T margins structurally be higher than the other two segments, in particular, given where construction margins are right now. I'm just wondering if the market underappreciates where E&T margins can go, given the capacity additions you're talking about?

所以我想現在在 E&T 內部，我們對 AACE 和產能進行了投資。但隨著時間的推移，為什麼 E&T 利潤率在結構上會高於其他兩個領域，特別是考慮到目前的建築利潤率。我只是想知道，考慮到您所說的產能增加，市場是否低估了 E&T 利潤的走向？

Jamie, it's a good question. One of the things to keep in mind is that many of the investments we're making, electrification and in other areas, the costs are absorbed in Energy & Transportation. So that's one of the things that has an impact on the margin of the total segment.

傑米，這是個好問題。需要記住的一件事是，我們正在進行的許多投資、電氣化和其他領域的成本都被能源和運輸所吸收。這是影響整個細分市場利潤率的因素之一。

And as you quite rightly mentioned, we're very focused on investing in areas that represent the best opportunities for future profitable growth. And as we look at the margin opportunities around large engines, that's certainly an area that very much deserves our investment in both capital and expense and management attention as well.

正如您正確地提到的，我們非常專注於投資那些代表未來獲利成長最佳機會的領域。當我們審視大型引擎周圍的利潤機會時，這無疑是一個非常值得我們在資本和費用以及管理層關注方面進行投資的領域。

So certainly, as you know, our primary measure of profitable growth is absolute OPACC dollars, and we're trying to increase that. Having said that, we provided our margin targets, and we said it would be in the upper half of the range. But again, we're investing in areas that represent very good opportunities for profitable growth, and that includes large engines. So I'm not saying that margins won't come up in E&T. Again, the one thing to keep in mind here is that a lot of costs go into that segment that really benefit some of the other segments.

當然，如您所知，我們衡量利潤成長的主要指標是絕對 OPACC 美元，我們正在努力增加這一數字。話雖如此，我們提供了利潤率目標，並且我們表示該目標將位於該範圍的上半部。但同樣，我們正在投資那些代表著利潤成長的良好機會的領域，其中包括大型引擎。所以我並不是說 E&T 不會有利潤率問題。再次強調，這裡要記住的一件事是，該細分市場投入了大量成本，而這確實有利於其他一些細分市場。

We'll move next to David Raso at Evercore ISI.

我們將接替 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I think some of the concern around the second half of the year sales having to be positive to offset the first half being down. It'd be helpful if you can give us a little sense of the implied orders for the quarter actually did turn slightly positive year-over-year. Can you give us any color that you can around sort of what moved in the backlog sequentially, E&T, CI, RI, just so we can get a sense of was the order improvement year-over-year solely E&T. Was there any order improvement year-over-year in RI and CI just to maybe build more confidence in the second half of the year sales growth?

我認為對下半年銷售的一些擔憂必須是積極的，才能抵消上半年的下降。如果您能讓我們了解本季的隱含訂單實際上確實比去年同期略有成長，那將會很有幫助。您能否為我們提供有關積壓訂單中按順序移動的內容的任何顏色（E&T、CI、RI），以便我們能夠了解僅 E&T 的訂單同比改善情況。 RI 和 CI 的訂單是否比去年有所改善，可能只是為了讓人們對下半年的銷售成長更有信心？

And of course, any color around some of the E&T orders, you get the impression some are very long-dated orders. Just trying to get a sense of that order flow in E&T, how soon can those orders show up in revenues.

當然，某些 E&T 訂單周圍的任何顏色都會給您留下一些非常長期的訂單的印象。只是想了解 E&T 的訂單流，這些訂單多久才能體現在收入中。

So David, let me ask the last part of your question first. So in terms of E&T, about 80% of our total Cat backlog is expected to be sold within 12 months. And we don't put orders into the -- we don't put things into the backlog unless we have a firm customer order. So we work really closely with our customers as an example with customers that are looking for large engines for data centers. And we have a sense going out multiple years of what it is they want. But we don't put any of that into the backlog until they give us a firm order. So it doesn't -- our backlog doesn't go out as far as you might think.

大衛，讓我先問你問題的最後一部分。因此，就 E&T 而言，我們 Cat 積壓總量的約 80% 預計將在 12 個月內售出。我們不會將訂單放入積壓訂單中，除非我們有確定的客戶訂單。因此，我們與客戶密切合作，例如正在為資料中心尋找大型引擎的客戶。我們多年來一直在努力了解他們想要什麼。但在他們給我們確定訂單之前，我們不會將任何這些放入積壓訂單中。所以事實並非如此——我們的積壓工作並沒有你想像的那麼嚴重。

So I'll start with that, and then I'll turn it over to Andrew for the first part of your question.

所以我將從這個開始，然後我將把它交給安德魯來回答你問題的第一部分。

Yes. And David, your fact on the implied order rate is correct. Yes, the implied orders are up year-over-year. Obviously, that is one of the factors which gives us confidence as we look out. And also the relative strength of the backlog gives us a lot of confidence within the business lines where they are.

是的。大衛，你關於隱含訂單率的事實是正確的。是的，隱含訂單年增。顯然，這是讓我們充滿信心的因素之一。而積壓訂單的相對強度也讓我們對它們所在的業務線充滿信心。

As regards to backlog, obviously, most of the increase has been in E&T, as you would expect, given that those are the businesses now, which is showing more strength relatively versus CI and RI. And that just is reflected in that order positioning as we go out.

至於積壓訂單，顯然，正如您所預料的那樣，大部分成長來自 E&T，因為這些業務現在相對於 CI 和 RI 表現出更強的實力。這恰恰反映在我們走出去時的訂單定位。

We'll go next to Robert Wertheimer at Melius Research.

接下來我們將採訪 Melius Research 的 Robert Wertheimer。

My question is around Cat's capabilities in power gen and data centers and so forth and how that may or may not be changing with the rise of AI and kind of massive increases in scale of data centers. Then I can ask specifically, I understand that your investment in large recips is probably partially targeted at that. My impression is that historically, solar turbines are more combined heat and power in power gen. I don't know whether they've served the data center market. I'm curious as to whether you now have an opportunity as those data centers are bigger to sell turbines into it? And just your general sense of how the world is changing in (inaudible)

我的問題是關於 Cat 在發電和資料中心等方面的能力，以及隨著人工智慧的興起和資料中心規模的大幅增加，這種能力可能會或可能不會改變。那我可以具體問一下，我了解你們對大食譜的投資很可能部分是針對這個的。我的印像是，從歷史上看，太陽能渦輪機在發電中更多的是熱電聯產。我不知道他們是否服務過資料中心市場。我很好奇，隨著這些資料中心變得更大，您現在是否有機會向其中出售渦輪機？以及您對世界如何變化的一般感覺（聽不清楚）

Thank you, Robert. We are very excited about the, what we view as a secular growth opportunity around data centers, both in terms of increasing based power loads, but also the specific opportunities to serve those data centers. So as you probably know, traditionally, we have provided a reciprocating generator sets as backup for those data centers.

謝謝你，羅伯特。我們對資料中心的長期成長機會感到非常興奮，無論是在增加基礎電力負載方面，還是為這些資料中心提供服務的具體機會方面。正如您可能知道的那樣，傳統上，我們提供了往復式發電機組作為這些資料中心的備份。

But what you say is very correct that business is changing. And I believe that we are uniquely positioned because we have a combination of both gas turbines and recips that burn a whole variety of fuels. And so we have had some projects now where we've shipped gas turbines to provide prime power for data centers because in some places, when data centers want to go into a geographic area, the utility can't handle the load of those.

但你說的非常正確，業務正在改變。我相信我們擁有獨特的定位，因為我們擁有燃氣渦輪機和燃燒各種燃料的循環裝置的組合。因此，我們現在有一些項目，我們運送燃氣渦輪機為資料中心提供主要電力，因為在某些地方，當資料中心想要進入某個地理區域時，公用事業公司無法處理這些負載。

And when, in fact, there's natural gas available, we've seen situations where a customer will take gas turbines, install those for natural gas to produce their own base power for the data centers. And in addition to that then, there's also the reciprocating engine gen sets as backup. It's something were to happen. But typically, again, we are seeing a change, you're right, the market's changing, and we're very excited about that opportunity.

事實上，當有天然氣可用時，我們已經看到客戶會使用燃氣渦輪機，安裝天然氣渦輪機來為資料中心生產自己的基礎電力。除此之外，還有往復式發動機發電機組作為備用。這是要發生的事情。但通常情況下，我們會再次看到變化，你是對的，市場正在發生變化，我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。

We'll move to our next question from Chad Dillard at Bernstein.

我們將轉向伯恩斯坦查德·迪拉德提出的下一個問題。

My question for you is on E&T. Just trying to understand where the lead times or what the lead times are, specifically in power gen. And then just like how long it will take to get your capacity expansion online and just how to think about just like when you can actually ramp the revenues there.

我的問題是關於 E&T 的。只是想了解交貨時間在哪裡或交貨時間是多少，特別是在發電方面。然後就像需要多長時間才能實現線上產能擴張，以及如何思考何時可以真正增加收入。

Yes. So we're starting to make -- again, we started to make those capacity investments and those. That capacity is expected to ramp up over the next 4 years. So it's gradually phased in. So that will happen over a 4-year period.

是的。所以我們開始進行——再次，我們開始進行這些產能投資等等。預計該產能將在未來 4 年內持續增加。所以它是逐步分階段實施的。

In terms of E&T, obviously, I mentioned that solar turbines has strong quotation and order activity as well. So they -- and they have the ability certainly to increase their production. So again, the capacity in large engines, the investments that we specifically mentioned is expected to gradually phase up over the next 4 years.

在E&T方面，顯然，我提到太陽能渦輪機的報價和訂單活動也很強勁。所以他們——而且他們肯定有能力增加產量。因此，大型引擎的產能，我們特別提到的投資預計將在未來 4 年內逐步增加。

Yes. And just a quick point to make. Obviously, power gen is the fastest-growing business today within Energy & Transportation, just to note, and actually as a percentage of E&T sales, it has gone up from 25% in the first quarter of last year to 29% this year. So it is an area of exciting opportunity even before we build the capacity, and obviously, an area where there's potential for further growth as well.

是的。我想快速指出一點。顯然，發電是當今能源與運輸領域成長最快的業務，值得注意的是，實際上，發電佔 E&T 銷售額的百分比已從去年第一季的 25% 上升到今年的 29%。因此，即使在我們建立能力之前，這也是一個充滿令人興奮的機會的領域，而且顯然，也是一個有進一步成長潛力的領域。

And maybe just one to add on, one of the beauties about our business model. We're making this capacity investment in large engines. But those large engines just don't have the ability to serve the power generation market. I mean they serve a whole variety of markets. So those sustained large engines are used for oil and gas. They're used for large mining trucks. They're used for data center backup, but we also believe there's an opportunity over time for distributed generation as well.

也許只是補充一點，這是我們商業模式的優點之一。我們正在對大型引擎進行產能投資。但那些大型引擎根本不具備服務發電市場的能力。我的意思是他們服務於各種各樣的市場。因此，那些持續的大型引擎用於石油和天然氣。它們用於大型礦用卡車。它們用於資料中心備份，但我們也相信隨著時間的推移，分散式發電也有機會。

So again, we're making this capital investment, not just based on one opportunity in the marketplace, but upon multiple opportunities in different industries. And again, we think that diversity of our end market opportunities is one that really makes us an excellent investment.

再說一次，我們進行這項資本投資，不僅是基於市場上的一個機會，而是基於不同產業的多種機會。再說一遍，我們認為終端市場機會的多樣性確實使我們成為一項出色的投資。

And we'll move to our next question from Jerry Revich at Goldman Sachs.

我們將轉向高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇提出的下一個問題。

Jim and Andrew, I wonder if you could just talk about in Construction Industries. In prior cycles, the industry has passed through lower input costs in terms of lower prices to customers when input costs have declined. In the first quarter, we saw a nice price cost spread on the positive side, for you folks here, I'm wondering to what extent do you think for you folks in the industry. Could we see that price cost gap continue to widen since the industry has taken a more disciplined approach in cutting production sooner relative to the soft swap that you mentioned in your prepared remarks?

吉姆和安德魯，我想知道你們是否可以談談建築業。在先前的周期中，當投入成本下降時，該行業透過向客戶提供較低的價格來傳遞較低的投入成本。在第一季度，我們看到了積極的價格成本分佈，對於在座的各位，我想知道你們對業內人士的看法如何。相對於您在準備好的發言中提到的軟互換，該行業採取了更嚴格的減產措施，我們是否可以看到價格成本差距繼續擴大？

Yes. So Jerry, as we've indicated, obviously, price has been favorable, but we expect the benefit of favorable price to moderate as the year progresses. And that obviously holds true for CI as it does for the other segments. And that really will obviously mean that the benefits on margin expansion will become much, much tougher for CI as particularly as you get into the second half of the year, where you won't see that spread.

是的。因此，傑瑞，正如我們所指出的，顯然，價格一直是有利的，但我們預計隨著時間的推移，有利價格的好處將會減弱。顯然，這對 CI 來說是正確的，對於其他細分市場也是如此。顯然，這確實意味著，對於 CI 來說，利潤率擴張的好處將變得更加困難，尤其是進入今年下半年，你不會看到這種蔓延。

We do see manufacturing costs being broadly flattish. And part of the reason for that is because of the favorability of freight, which is more than offsetting the impact of cost absorption. So overall, we've obviously taken the approach that where we have got the benefit of price, we will obviously be trying to hold that as best as we can. Obviously, and we -- as you rightly point out, we've been pretty disciplined about making sure that we have cut production like, for example, and excavators that you saw in the fourth quarter, where we do see softness or weakness in the market.

我們確實看到製造成本基本上持平。其中部分原因是運費的優惠，這足以抵消成本吸收的影響。因此，總的來說，我們顯然採取了這樣的方法：在我們獲得價格優勢的地方，我們顯然會盡力盡可能地保持這種優勢。顯然，正如您正確指出的那樣，我們一直非常嚴格地確保我們已經削減了產量，例如您在第四季度看到的挖掘機產量，我們確實看到了生產的疲軟或疲軟。

We'll take our next question from Stephen Volkmann at Jefferies.

我們將接受傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Stephen Volkmann 提出的下一個問題。

I'm wondering if we could tack back to the dealer inventory commentary. I want to make sure I understand that right, because that seems to be a bit of a focus for the market this morning.

我想知道我們是否可以回到經銷商庫存評論。我想確保我的理解是正確的，因為這似乎是今天早上市場的焦點。

I think, if I'm not mistaken, that the dealers did build a little more than you expected in the first quarter. I'm curious why that might be. And if you can provide some sense of how much of that total $1.4 billion kind of has a customer name on it. And I guess the bottom line is, why don't you worry that that's kind of an inventory build that sort of makes things less bullish going forward?

我認為，如果我沒記錯的話，經銷商在第一季的銷量確實比您預期的要多一些。我很好奇為什麼會這樣。如果您能提供一些信息，說明這 14 億美元的總額中有多少是有客戶姓名的。我想底線是，為什麼不擔心這種庫存增加會讓未來的情況變得不那麼樂觀？

Yes. The reason dealer inventory increased a bit more than we expected is primarily due to the softness in European construction. It was -- that really is the reason for that build in dealer inventory. Dealer inventory is well within our typical range comfortably within our -- what we consider a typical range. So we are not concerned about it.

是的。經銷商庫存增幅略高於我們預期的主要原因是歐洲建築業疲軟。這確實是經銷商庫存增加的原因。經銷商庫存完全在我們的典型範圍內——我們認為的典型範圍內。所以我們不關心這個。

And just the other bit of granularity, which we tried to give and just to -- is about splitting out between machine and dealer inventory and dealer inventory as a whole, principally because, obviously, in Energy & Transportation. It is -- most of that inventory, as we said previously and also within Resource Industries, over 70% of that is backed by firm customer orders is not really inventory sitting on a dealer's lot waiting, often is in getting ready for commissioning. And that is part of the reason for that.

我們試圖給出的另一點粒度是關於機器和經銷商庫存以及經銷商庫存作為一個整體的劃分，這主要是因為，顯然，在能源和運輸領域。正如我們之前所說，大部分庫存在資源行業內，超過 70% 的庫存是由確定的客戶訂單支持的，並不是真正的庫存在經銷商的地段等待，通常是在為調試做準備。這就是部分原因。

Overall, as Jim reiterated, and just to reiterate, we are comfortably within the range of machine dealer inventory. We do expect for the year that inventory level to be flat year-over-year. That's our expectation or the planning assumption at the moment.

總體而言，正如吉姆重申的那樣，並且只是重申一下，我們完全處於機器經銷商庫存的範圍內。我們確實預計今年庫存水準將與去年同期持平。這是我們目前的期望或計劃假設。

We'll move to our next question from Mig Dobre at Baird.

我們將轉向貝爾德 (Baird) 的米格·多布雷 (Mig Dobre) 提出的下一個問題。

Maybe we can talk a little bit about Resource Industries. I guess one of the things that stood out to me was that pretty significant decline in dealer deliveries in this segment. And I'm curious in mining specifically. What's going on there? Are you actually starting to see maybe a pullback in demand from your customers? Is the investment cycle maturing there? Or is this just sort of a temporary aberration?

也許我們可以談談資源產業。我想對我來說最突出的事情之一是該細分市場經銷商交付量的大幅下降。我對採礦特別有興趣。那裡發生了什麼事？您是否真的開始看到客戶的需求可能會下降？那裡的投資週期成熟了嗎？還是這只是暫時的異常？

Yes. So we had expected some softness certainly in RI this year, and we talked about that, I believe, in our first quarter call. So a number of things. First of all, on the positive side, the number of parked trucks and some indices that we look at to really judge the health of the mining industry. And so some positives. The number of parked trucks is relatively low.

是的。因此，我們預計今年 RI 肯定會出現一些疲軟，我相信，我們在第一季的電話會議中談到了這一點。所以有很多事情。首先，從正面的一面來看，我們透過停放卡車的數量和一些指數來真正判斷採礦業的健康狀況。還有一些正面的方面。停放的卡車數量相對較少。

The utilization of our customers' products -- of our products by our customers is high and the age of the fleet is relatively elevated. So those are positive things. Having said that, we -- our customers are displaying capital discipline, not surprising just given what's happening in the economic conditions around the world. But those indices really do bode well for us.

我們的客戶對我們的產品的利用率很高，而且機隊的年齡也相對較高。所以這些都是正面的事情。話雖如此，我們——我們的客戶正在表現出資本紀律，考慮到世界各地經濟狀況的變化，這並不奇怪。但這些指數對我們來說確實是個好兆頭。

And in addition to that, we've seen great strength, great acceptance of our autonomous solutions. So those have been accepted well also. We expect a robust rebuild activity this year because our products are being used so extensively by our customers. So again, really, I think it's just really mostly a function of a bit of a dealer inventory change and also our customers just playing capital discipline.

除此之外，我們還看到了我們的自主解決方案的強大實力和廣泛接受度。所以這些也都被很好地接受了。我們預計今年的重建活動將會強勁，因為我們的產品被客戶廣泛使用。所以，我真的認為這主要是經銷商庫存變化的結果，而且我們的客戶只是在玩資本紀律。

Yes. And just to add to that a little bit, just to remind you that the first quarter of 2023 was very strong and actually the highest level of STUs in Resource Industries for over 10 years at the time. So that was a significant factor.

是的。補充一點，只是提醒您，2023 年第一季非常強勁，實際上是當時資源行業 10 多年來 STU 的最高水平。所以這是一個重要因素。

Secondly, as we talked about, there are two product lines where because of supply chain, there was a backlog which was used up principally in 2023, off-highway trucks and also then also articulated trucks. Just as an FYI, large mining trucks are still growing, which I know is one of the factors that many of you look at. So there is no issue there at all with regards to that.

其次，正如我們所討論的，有兩條產品線由於供應鏈的原因存在積壓，主要在 2023 年用完，即非公路卡車和鉸接式卡車。僅供參考，大型礦用卡車仍在成長，我知道這是你們許多人關注的因素之一。所以這方面根本沒有問題。

And again, if you think about the market changing, we're still very bullish on the fact longer term that we believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time. That will expand our total addressable market and provide us further opportunities for long-term profitable growth. Just think about everything that has to happen for EVs. There's no way around that being accomplished without our customers producing more commodities. And of course, they use our products to produce those additional commodities.

再說一次，如果你考慮到市場的變化，我們仍然非常看好這樣一個事實：從長遠來看，我們相信能源轉型將隨著時間的推移支持大宗商品需求的增加。這將擴大我們的潛在市場總量，並為我們提供進一步的長期獲利成長機會。想想電動車必須發生的一切。如果我們的客戶不生產更多商品，就無法實現這一目標。當然，他們使用我們的產品來生產這些額外的商品。

We'll go next to Angel Castillo at Morgan Stanley.

我們將前往摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

Just wanted to clarify, going back to North America CI in the second quarter, you talked about seeing continued kind of healthy demand there. But just wanted to clarify, as we think about kind of dealer inventories coming down in the second quarter. And you also have a little bit of tougher comps there as you think about retail sales. When we kind of look at retail sales for the second quarter of this year, just to clarify, is that expected to be still positive? Or do you expect that to turn kind of modestly negative. And as you kind of talk about that and provide more color on that, could you also talk about what you're seeing in April in terms of kind of quarter-to-date trends in retail sales?

只是想澄清一下，回到第二季的北美 CI，您談到那裡的需求持續健康。但只是想澄清一下，因為我們考慮的是第二季經銷商庫存的下降。當你考慮零售銷售時，你也會有一些更嚴格的比較。當我們看一下今年第二季的零售銷售時，只是想澄清一下，預計零售銷售仍將是正面的嗎？或者你認為這會變得有點消極。當您談論這一點並提供更多資訊時，您能否也談談您在 4 月看到的零售銷售季度至今趨勢？

Yes. As I think we've indicated, overall, for the full year, we expect CI -- overall CI revenues to be -- STUs to be slightly negative for the full year. First quarter, January, we've said we thought they would be about flat for the full year. So that does imply some acceleration through the year in order to get back to that sort of to be just slightly negative.

是的。正如我認為我們已經指出的那樣，總體而言，我們預計全年 CI（CI 總體收入）STU 將略有負值。第一季度，也就是一月份，我們曾說過，我們認為全年的業績將會持平。因此，這確實意味著今年會出現一些加速，以便回到那種略為負面的狀態。

With regards to trends in April, look, we're not going to talk about what's happening. I mean, as is always the case, quarter-on-quarter, you see changes, which can relate to its commissioning and all sorts of number of factors, but we're comfortable with our full year forecast for CI.

關於四月份的趨勢，我們不會談論正在發生的事情。我的意思是，與往常一樣，您會看到季度環比的變化，這可能與其調試和各種因素有關，但我們對 CI 的全年預測感到滿意。

And North America is our strongest -- the largest geographic area for CI. And as we said earlier, we certainly expect demand in North America to remain healthy. We've got -- we expect it to be flat to slightly higher in nonresidential, flat to slightly down. So again, in that North American market which is so important to us. Our business continues to be strong.

北美是我們實力最強的地區，也是 CI 最大的地理區域。正如我們之前所說，我們當然預期北美的需求將保持健康。我們預期非住宅產業將持平至小幅上升，持平至小幅下降。再說一遍，北美市場對我們來說非常重要。我們的業務持續強勁。

Our next question comes from Kristen Owen at Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的克里斯汀歐文。

Great. I wanted to ask about capital allocation here, just given the ASR that you put in place. You've bought back more shares than historically you do any year. I appreciate that, that is in line with the ME&T free cash flow deployment, but your stock is also at all-time highs. So just wondering how we should think about in terms of value at this stage and how to weigh that ASR versus, say, dividend increase?

偉大的。我想在這裡詢問有關資本分配的問題，只是考慮到您制定的 ASR。您回購的股票比歷史上任何一年都多。我很欣賞這一點，這符合 ME&T 自由現金流部署，但你們的股票也處於歷史高點。那麼，只是想知道現階段我們應該如何考慮價值，以及如何權衡 ASR 與股利增加等因素？

Yes. So obviously, as you know, we have both a dividend policy as well as a share buyback policy. As far as the dividend is concerned, we have one more year of our high single digits. That's a board decision, which will probably be made around June time. And then after that, we'll probably come back and look at what the future policy will be.

是的。顯然，如您所知，我們既有股利政策又有股票回購政策。就股息而言，我們又一年維持高個位數股息。這是董事會的決定，可能在六月左右做出。之後，我們可能會回來看看未來的政策是什麼。

Remember, the objective is to pay out no more than 60% to 65% of free cash flow in a low environment for the dividend. So that will be part of our -- that comes into part of the policy and the way we look at that.

請記住，我們的目標是在低利率環境下支付不超過 60% 至 65% 的自由現金流作為股息。因此，這將成為我們政策的一部分以及我們看待這個問題的方式。

With regards to intrinsic value, obviously, as is always the case, yes, we do take into account intrinsic value. And that's been made -- that decision has been made as part of the longer-term ASR, obviously. But remind you that the benefit of the ASR is really around the fact that you are in the market more consistently. We don't try and market time, we are really just trying to be in the market consistently to return that cash to shareholders. Overall, we believe that's the best approach. But we're very comfortable with putting that in place.

關於內在價值，顯然，一如既往，我們確實考慮了內在價值。這已經做出了——顯然，該決定是作為長期 ASR 的一部分做出的。但請提醒您，ASR 的好處實際上在於您可以更穩定地進入市場。我們不會嘗試市場時間，我們實際上只是試圖持續進入市場，將現金回饋給股東。總的來說，我們認為這是最好的方法。但我們很樂意將其落實到位。

Last question comes from Nicole DeBlase at Deutsche Bank.

最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

I also wanted to focus on CI. So a lot of discussion obviously about Europe kind of being the problem child this quarter. I guess, are you guys seeing -- as you kind of progress through the quarter, sometimes of stabilization? Or is there a risk that Europe could still get worse?

我也想專注於 CI。因此，顯然有很多關於歐洲是本季問題兒童的討論。我想，你們是否看到──隨著本季的進展，有時會趨於穩定？或者歐洲仍存在變得更糟的風險？

And then I guess also, like with dealer inventories being up and that being the driver, are you concerned about the level of dealer inventories in Europe CI specifically?

然後我想，就像經銷商庫存增加一樣，這是驅動因素，您是否特別擔心歐洲 CI 的經銷商庫存水準？

Yes. First, as I mentioned earlier, we are -- we believe the dealer inventory is comfortably within what we would consider the typical range. When we think about EAME, we talked about construction weakness in Europe, but also there's strength in the Middle East, a lot of construction activity in the Middle East.

是的。首先，正如我之前提到的，我們相信經銷商庫存處於我們認為的典型範圍內。當我們想到 EAME 時，我們談到了歐洲建築業的疲軟，但中東也有優勢，中東有很多建築活動。

So again, that provides a bit of a buffer there to the total EAME region. And again, I keep coming back to North America as our largest is our largest, most important region for CI and the fact that nonresidential construction is underpinned by those government infrastructure projects, which, again, is a very positive thing for us. So I think that's an important thing to keep in mind as you think about CI.

同樣，這為整個 EAME 區域提供了一點緩衝。我再次回到北美，因為我們最大的地區是我們最大、最重要的 CI 地區，而且非住宅建設是由這些政府基礎設施項目支撐的，這對我們來說又是一件非常積極的事情。所以我認為在考慮 CI 時要記住這一點很重要。

All right. Well, again, thank you for joining us, and we certainly appreciate all your questions. I'd like to just close by thanking our global team for their strong performance in the first quarter including higher adjusted operating profit margin, record adjusted profit per share, and strong ME&T free cash flow. Our strong results continue to reflect the diversity of our end markets as well as the disciplined execution of our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

好的。好吧，再次感謝您加入我們，我們當然感謝您提出的所有問題。最後，我想感謝我們的全球團隊在第一季的強勁表現，包括更高的調整後營業利潤率、創紀錄的調整後每股利潤以及強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流。我們的強勁業績持續反映了我們終端市場的多樣性以及我們長期獲利成長策略的嚴格執行。

With that, I'll turn it back to Ryan.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給瑞安。

Thanks, Jim, Andrew, and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll also find our first quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data, Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view those materials. If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. Now let's turn the call back to Audra to conclude our call.

謝謝吉姆、安德魯和今天加入我們的所有人。今天上午晚些時候，我們將在網上重播我們的電話會議。一旦有文字記錄，我們也將立即在我們的投資者關係網站上發布。您還可以找到我們的財務長的第一季業績影片以及包含我們向用戶銷售資料的 SEC 備案文件，點擊 Investors.caterpillar.com，然後點擊財務以查看這些資料。如果您有任何疑問，請聯絡 Rob 或我。現在讓我們將電話轉回 Audra 以結束我們的通話。

Thank you, and that does conclude our call. Thank you for joining. You may all now disconnect.

謝謝您，我們的通話就到此結束。感謝您的加入。你們現在可以斷開連結了。