開拓重工 (CAT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the fourth quarter 2024 Caterpillar earnings conference call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Alex Kapper. Thank you, and please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人亞歷克斯·卡珀 (Alex Kapper)。謝謝，請繼續。

Thank you, Audra. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. I'm Alex Kapper, Vice President Elect of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，奧德拉。大家早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係候任副總裁 Alex Kapper。

Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of Global Finance Services Division; Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of IR; and Rob Rengel, Senior Director of IR.

今天與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby、財務長 Andrew Bonfield、全球金融服務部高級副總裁 Kyle Epley、投資者關係副總裁 Ryan Fiedler 和投資者關係高級總監 Rob Rengel。

During our call, we'll be discussing the fourth quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events & Presentations. The content of this call is protected by US and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited.

在電話會議中，我們將討論今天早些時候發布的第四季度收益報告。您可以在 investors.caterpillar.com 的「活動與簡報」下找到我們的幻燈片、新聞稿和網路直播回顧。本次通話內容受美國及國際版權法的保護。未經卡特彼勒事先書面許可，禁止重新廣播、重新傳輸、複製或散佈該內容的全部或部分。

Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call.

移至投影片 2。在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響。我們也會做出一些假設，這可能會導致我們的實際結果與我們在本次電話會議中與您分享的資訊不同。

Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast.

請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明提醒，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與預測產生重大差異的因素的詳細資訊。

A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate US GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides.

我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細討論了我們認為可能持續對我們的業務產生重大影響的許多因素。在今天的電話會議上，我們也將參考非公認會計準則資料。有關任何非 GAAP 數字與相應的美國 GAAP 數字的對賬，請參閱收益電話會議幻燈片的附錄。

Now let's advance to Slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.

現在讓我們進入幻燈片 3，並將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby。

Thanks, Alex. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As we close out 2024, I want to thank our global team for their strong execution in delivering another good year. Our results continue to reflect the benefit of the diversity of our end markets and the disciplined execution of our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。大家早安。感謝您加入我們。在 2024 年即將結束之際，我要感謝我們的全球團隊的出色執行，讓我們又度過了美好的一年。我們的業績持續反映出我們終端市場的多樣性以及我們長期獲利成長策略的嚴格執行所帶來的好處。

For the year, we delivered record adjusted profit per share and higher adjusted operating profit margin that exceeded the top of our target range. Although our top line decreased in the year, services revenue grew to a record level.

今年，我們實現了創紀錄的每股調整利潤和更高的調整後營業利潤率，超過了我們的目標範圍上限。儘管今年我們的營業收入有所下降，但服務收入卻成長到了創紀錄的水平。

We also generated ME&T free cash flow near the top of the target range. Our robust ME&T free cash flow, along with our strong balance sheet, allowed us to deploy over $10 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends during the year.

我們還產生了接近目標範圍上限的 ME&T 自由現金流。我們強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流以及強大的資產負債表使我們能夠在年內透過股票回購和股息向股東部署超過 100 億美元。

I'll begin with my perspectives about our performance in the quarter and for the full year. I'll then provide some insights about our end markets, followed by an update on our sustainability journey. For the fourth quarter, sales and revenues were down 5% versus last year, primarily due to lower sales volume. This was slightly below our expectations, mainly due to services growing at a slightly slower rate than we expected and some delivery delays in energy and transportation.

我將首先談談我對我們本季和全年業績的看法。然後，我將提供一些有關我們終端市場的見解，然後介紹我們的永續發展歷程的最新進展。第四季的銷售額和收入較去年同期下降了 5%，主要原因是銷售量下降。這略低於我們的預期，主要是因為服務業成長速度略低於我們的預期，以及能源和運輸方面的一些交付延遲。

Services revenues did increase in the quarter compared to 2023. Stronger-than-expected machine sales to users drove a higher-than-anticipated dealer inventory reduction, which offset each other, resulting in a minimal impact to sales.

與 2023 年相比，本季服務收入確實有所增加。機器對使用者的銷售量高於預期，導致經銷商庫存減少量高於預期，兩者相互抵消，對銷售的影響微乎其微。

Fourth quarter adjusted operating profit margin was below our expectations at 18.3%, primarily due to lower volume and an unfavorable mix of products. We achieved quarterly adjusted profit per share of $5.14 and generated $3 billion in ME&T free cash flow.

第四季調整後的營業利潤率低於我們的預期，為 18.3%，主要原因是銷售下降和產品組合不利。我們實現了季度調整後每股利潤 5.14 美元，並產生了 30 億美元的 ME&T 自由現金流。

Since last quarter end, our backlog increased by $1.3 billion to $30 billion. For the full year, total sales and revenues were $64.8 billion, a decrease of 3% compared to 2023. Services revenues increased 4% to $24 billion.

自上個季度末以來，我們的積壓訂單增加了 13 億美元，達到 300 億美元。全年總銷售和收入為 648 億美元，與 2023 年相比下降 3%。服務收入成長 4%，達到 240 億美元。

Adjusted operating profit margin of 20.7% exceeded the top end of the target range as we expected and represents a slight improvement from 2023. We achieved record adjusted profit per share in 2024 of $21.90, a 3% increase over 2023. In addition, we generated $9.4 billion of ME&T free cash flow, which was near the top of our target range, as we expected.

調整後的營業利潤率為 20.7%，超出了我們預期的目標範圍上限，並且比 2023 年略有改善。2024 年，我們實現了創紀錄的每股調整後利潤 21.90 美元，比 2023 年增長 3%。此外，我們產生了 94 億美元的 ME&T 自由現金流，接近我們預期的目標範圍上限。

Since 2019, we have generated approximately $40 billion of ME&T free cash flow, of which we have returned substantially all to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, including $10.3 billion in 2024. Our strong and consistent ME&T free cash flow has allowed us to reduce the average number of shares outstanding by approximately 18% since the beginning of 2019.

自 2019 年以來，我們已產生約 400 億美元的 ME&T 自由現金流，其中絕大部分已透過股票回購和股息返還給股東，其中包括 2024 年的 103 億美元。我們強勁而穩定的 ME&T 自由現金流使我們自 2019 年初以來將平均流通股數量減少了約 18%。

Turning to Slide 4. As I mentioned earlier, sales and revenues declined 5% in the fourth quarter to $16.2 billion. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, machine sales to users, which includes Construction Industries and Resource Industries declined by 3%, but was better than our expectations.

翻到幻燈片 4。正如我之前提到的，第四季銷售額和收入下降 5% 至 162 億美元。與 2023 年第四季相比，面向建築業和資源業等用戶的機器銷售額下降了 3%，但比我們的預期好。

Energy & Transportation continued to grow as sales to users increased 2%. Sales to users in Construction Industries were down 3% year-over-year. In North America, sales to users were slightly lower, but better than we expected. Sales to users grew in residential construction, while nonresidential was down slightly.

能源與運輸業務持續成長，用戶銷售額成長了 2%。建築業用戶的銷售額較去年同期下降了 3%。在北美，用戶銷售額略有下降，但比我們的預期好。住宅建築的銷售額有所成長，而非住宅建築的銷售額則略有下降。

Rental fleet loading was down, but in line with expectations, as we described during our last earnings call. Dealers’ rental revenue continued to grow in the quarter. Sales to users declined in EAME and Asia Pacific, in line with our expectations. Sales to users in Latin America continued to grow, but at a lower rate than we expected.

正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所描述的那樣，租賃車隊的裝載量有所下降，但符合預期。本季度經銷商的租賃收入持續成長。東非和非洲地區以及亞太地區的用戶銷售額下降，符合我們的預期。對拉丁美洲用戶的銷售額持續成長，但成長速度低於我們的預期。

In Resource Industries, sales to users declined 3%, which was better than we expected. Mining was better than expected due to large mining and off-highway trucks being placed into service earlier than we anticipated. Heavy construction and quarry and aggregates were in line with expectations.

在資源產業，對用戶的銷售額下降了 3%，這好於我們的預期。由於大型採礦和非公路卡車比我們預期的更早投入使用，採礦業的情況好於預期。重型建築、採石場和骨材的表現符合預期。

In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 2%. Power generation sales to users grew 27%, as conditions remained favorable for both reciprocating engines and turbines and turbine-related services. Sales to users for reciprocating engines used in oil and gas applications declined primarily due to a challenging comparative to the fourth quarter of 2023.

在能源和交通運輸領域，用戶銷售額成長了 2%。由於往復式發動機、渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務的條件仍然有利，向用戶銷售的發電量增加了 27%。石油和天然氣應用中使用的往復式引擎的用戶銷售額下降，主要是因為與 2023 年第四季相比面臨挑戰。

For solar turbines and turbine-related services, fourth quarter sales were down in oil and gas compared to strong shipments in the fourth quarter of 2023. Most of Solar's fourth quarter decline in oil and gas was offset by growth in power generation. Transportation sales to users increased, while industrial declined.

對於太陽能渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務而言，與 2023 年第四季的強勁出貨量相比，第四季石油和天然氣的銷售額有所下降。太陽能第四季在石油和天然氣方面的下滑大部分被發電量的成長所抵消。運輸業對使用者的銷售額增加，而工業銷售下降。

Moving to dealer inventory and backlog. In total, dealer inventory decreased by $1.3 billion versus the third quarter of 2024. For machines, dealer inventory decreased by $1.6 billion. The decrease was more than we had anticipated due to better-than-expected sales to users, particularly for Construction Industries in North America and Resource Industries.

轉向經銷商庫存和積壓。總體而言，經銷商庫存與 2024 年第三季相比減少了 13 億美元。對於機器而言，經銷商庫存減少了 16 億美元。由於用戶銷售情況優於預期，特別是北美建築業和資源行業的銷售情況，降幅超過了我們的預期。

As I mentioned, backlog increased versus the third quarter to $30 billion, led by Energy & Transportation. This is a $2.5 billion increase versus 2023 year-end. Our backlog remains elevated as a percentage of revenues compared to historical levels. We continue to see strong order activity for both reciprocating engines and power generation and turbines and turbine-related services in both oil and gas and power generation.

正如我所提到的，積壓訂單較第三季增加至 300 億美元，其中能源和運輸業是主要產業。與 2023 年底相比，這一數字增加了 25 億美元。與歷史水準相比，我們的積壓訂單佔收入的百分比仍然很高。我們繼續看到往復式發動機和發電以及石油和天然氣和發電領域的渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務的訂單活動強勁。

Turning to Slide 5. I'll now provide full year highlights. In 2024, we generated sales and revenues of $64.8 billion, down 3% versus last year. This was due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization.

翻到幻燈片 5。我現在將介紹全年的亮點。2024年，我們的銷售額和收入為648億美元，比去年下降3%。這是由於銷售量下降，但被有利的價格實現部分抵消。

Our adjusted operating profit margin was 20.7%, a 20 basis points increase over 2023, despite lower sales and revenues. Adjusted profit per share in 2024 was $21.90. As I mentioned, services revenues increased to $24 billion in 2024, a 4% increase over 2023. Services continue to grow as we focus on making our customers successful. Working with our dealers, we are leveraging over 1.5 million connected reporting assets and digital tools.

儘管銷售額和收入有所下降，但我們的調整後營業利潤率為 20.7%，比 2023 年增加了 20 個基點。2024年調整後每股獲利為21.90美元。正如我所提到的，2024年服務收入將增加至240億美元，比2023年成長4%。隨著我們專注於幫助客戶取得成功，服務也不斷成長。透過與經銷商合作，我們利用了超過 150 萬個互聯報告資產和數位工具。

Our Cat Digital tools allow customers to more efficiently improve uptime, manage their fleets and transact on our e-commerce platforms. For example, this year, we launched an internal generative AI solution designed to optimize the creation of intelligent leads, which we call prioritized service events or PSEs.

我們的 Cat Digital 工具使客戶能夠更有效地提高正常運作時間、管理他們的車隊並在我們的電子商務平台上進行交易。例如，今年我們推出了一款內部生成式人工智慧解決方案，旨在優化智慧線索的創建，我們稱之為優先服務事件或 PSE。

This tool significantly reduces the time and effort required for service recommendations, helping customers avoid unplanned downtime by clearly identifying the recommended repair options and timing for customers.

該工具顯著減少了服務建議所需的時間和精力，透過明確為客戶確定建議的維修選項和時間，幫助客戶避免非計劃性停機。

In 2024, we delivered more than two-thirds of new equipment with a customer value agreement, which remains an important part of our services growth initiatives. We also experienced better-than-expected growth in our e-commerce platforms and have focused on improving our customer onboarding to include key digital products.

2024 年，我們交付的三分之二以上的新設備均附有客戶價值協議，這仍然是我們服務成長計畫的重要組成部分。我們的電子商務平台也經歷了好於預期的成長，並致力於改善我們的客戶入職流程，以涵蓋關鍵的數位產品。

Also in 2024, we saw record usage of VisionLink, our equipment management application, onboarding and activating thousands of new customers throughout the year. Services growth remains resilient despite the decline in our overall top line. We continue to execute our various services initiatives as we strive towards our aspirational target of $28 billion in services revenues.

此外，在 2024 年，我們的裝置管理應用程式 VisionLink 的使用量創下了歷史新高，全年吸收並啟動了數千名新客戶。儘管我們的整體收入有所下降，但服務成長仍保持強勁。我們將繼續執行各種服務計劃，努力實現 280 億美元的服務收入目標。

Moving to Slide 6. We generated robust ME&T free cash flow of $9.4 billion for the full year. We deployed $10.3 billion to shareholders through $7.7 billion of share repurchases and $2.6 billion of dividends paid. We remain proud of our Dividend Aristocrat status, as we have paid higher annual dividends for 31 consecutive years. We continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases.

移至幻燈片 6。我們全年創造了 94 億美元的強勁 ME&T 自由現金流。我們透過 77 億美元的股票回購和 26 億美元的股息支付向股東投入了 103 億美元。我們仍然為我們的股息貴族地位感到自豪，因為我們已經連續 31 年支付更高的年度股息。我們繼續期望隨著時間的推移透過股息和股票回購將幾乎所有 ME&T 自由現金流返還給股東。

Now on Slide 7, I'll describe our expectations moving forward. Overall, we currently anticipate 2025 sales and revenues to be slightly lower compared to 2024. In 2025, we expect continued strength in Energy & Transportation to mostly offset lower sales in Construction Industries and Resource Industries.

現在在第 7 張投影片上，我將描述我們對未來的期望。總體而言，我們目前預計 2025 年的銷售額和收入將略低於 2024 年。到 2025 年，我們預計能源和交通運輸行業的持續強勁成長將基本抵消建築業和資源業銷售額的下降。

We also expect services revenues to grow in 2025, including growth across all three primary segments. We currently expect machine dealer inventory to end 2025 at similar levels to year-end 2024. Full year adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be lower than 2024, but it is anticipated to be in the top half of the target range based on the corresponding level of sales and revenues. Finally, we expect ME&T free cash flow to be in the top half of our target range of $5 billion to $10 billion.

我們也預計 2025 年服務收入將會成長，包括所有三個主要領域的成長。我們目前預計，2025 年底機器經銷商庫存將與 2024 年底持平。預計全年調整後的營業利潤率將低於 2024 年，但根據相應的銷售和收入水平，預計將處於目標範圍的上半部分。最後，我們預計 ME&T 自由現金流將達到我們目標範圍 50 億至 100 億美元的上半部分。

Now, I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets, starting with Construction Industries. In North America, we expect moderately lower sales to users in 2025 versus last year. Construction spend in North America remains healthy, primarily driven by large multiyear projects and government-related infrastructure investments supported by funding from the IIJA.

現在，我將討論我們對主要終端市場的展望，首先是建築業。在北美，我們預計 2025 年的用戶銷售額將比去年略有下降。北美的建築支出仍保持健康，主要受到大型多年期計畫和由 IIJA 資助的政府相關基礎設施投資的推動。

Although we anticipate the combined nonresidential and residential construction spend to remain similar to 2024 levels, our current planning assumptions reflect lower demand for new equipment. We also expect lower dealer rental fleet loading compared to 2024, although dealer rental revenue is expected to grow. Overall, we remain positive about the medium and longer-term outlook in North America.

儘管我們預計非住宅和住宅建築支出總額將與 2024 年的水平保持相似，但我們目前的規劃假設反映出對新設備的需求較低。儘管經銷商租賃收入預計會成長，但我們也預期經銷商租賃車隊的裝載量將比 2024 年有所下降。總體而言，我們對北美的中長期前景仍然持樂觀態度。

In Asia Pacific, outside of China, we expect soft economic conditions to continue into 2025. We anticipate China to remain at relatively low levels for the above 10-ton excavator industry. In EAME, we anticipate weak economic conditions in Europe will continue and the healthy level of construction activity in Africa and the Middle East. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to decline moderately. We also anticipate the ongoing benefit of our services initiatives will positively impact Construction Industries in 2025.

在亞太地區（中國除外），我們預期疲軟的經濟狀況將持續到 2025 年。我們預計中國10噸以上挖土機產業仍將維持相對較低的水準。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們預計歐洲經濟疲軟狀況將持續，而非洲和中東地區的建築活動將保持健康水準。預計拉丁美洲的建築活動將適度下降。我們也預計，我們的服務措施的持續效益將在 2025 年對建築業產生正面影響。

Moving to Resource Industries. We anticipate lower sales to users in 2025 compared to last year, partially offset by higher services revenues, including robust rebuild activity. Customers continue to display capital discipline, although key commodities remain above investment thresholds.

轉向資源產業。我們預計 2025 年面向用戶的銷售額將比去年有所下降，但服務收入的增加（包括強勁的重建活動）將部分抵消這一影響。儘管主要商品的價格仍高於投資門檻，但客戶仍保持資本紀律。

Customer product utilization remains high. The number of parked trucks remains relatively low. The age of the fleet remains elevated. And our autonomous solutions continue to see strong customer acceptance. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for long-term profitable growth.

客戶產品利用率仍然很高。停放的卡車數量仍然相對較少。艦隊的年齡仍然較高。我們的自主解決方案持續獲得客戶的強烈認可。我們始終相信，能源轉型將隨著時間的推移支持商品需求的成長，擴大我們的整體目標市場，並為長期獲利成長提供更多機會。

Moving to Energy & Transportation. Demand is expected to remain strong in power generation, and we expect growth for both Cat reciprocating engines and solar turbines. Overall strength in power generation for both prime and backup power applications continues to be driven by increasing energy demand to support data center growth related to cloud computing and generative AI.

轉向能源和交通運輸。預計發電需求將保持強勁，我們預計 Cat 往復式發動機和太陽能渦輪機的需求都將成長。主要和備用電源應用的發電總體實力繼續受到不斷增長的能源需求的推動，以支持與雲端運算和生成性人工智慧相關的資料中心的成長。

Through continued focus on improving manufacturing efficiencies, along with initial stages of our investment to increase large engine output capability, we expect growth in reciprocating engines for power generation in 2025. We also expect growth in solar turbines for power generation, driven by increased customer demand.

透過持續關注提高製造效率，以及我們在增加大型引擎輸出能力方面的初始投資，我們預計 2025 年往復式引擎發電量將實現成長。我們也預計，受客戶需求成長的推動，用於發電的太陽能渦輪機也將成長。

For oil and gas, after a flat year in 2024, we expect moderate growth in 2025. We expect reciprocating engines and services to be slightly down in 2025 due to continuing capital discipline by our customers, industry consolidation and efficiency improvements in our customers' operations.

對於石油和天然氣而言，在 2024 年平穩之後，我們預計 2025 年將出現溫和成長。由於客戶持續的資本約束、行業整合以及客戶營運效率的提高，我們預計 2025 年往復式引擎和服務將略有下降。

Solar turbines oil and gas backlog remains strong, and we see continued healthy order and inquiry activity. We expect growth for turbines and turbine-related services in oil and gas. Demand for products and industrial applications is expected to remain at a relatively low level, similar to 2024. In transportation, we anticipate full year growth driven by rail services.

太陽能渦輪機的石油和天然氣積壓訂單仍然強勁，我們看到持續健康的訂單和詢價活動。我們預計石油和天然氣行業的渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務將會成長。預計產品和工業應用的需求將保持在相對較低的水平，與2024年類似。在交通運輸方面，我們預計鐵路服務將推動全年成長。

Moving to Slide 8. I'll now provide an update on our sustainability journey. Caterpillar's legacy of sustainable innovation spans nearly a century. Throughout that time, we have provided products and services that improve the quality of life and the environment, while helping customers fulfill society's need for infrastructure in a sustainable way.

移至幻燈片 8。我現在將介紹我們的永續發展歷程的最新進展。卡特彼勒的永續創新傳統已跨越近一個世紀。在此期間，我們一直提供改善生活品質和環境的產品和服務，同時幫助客戶以永續的方式滿足社會對基礎設施的需求。

Earlier this month, Caterpillar kicked off its year-long centennial celebration at CES 2025 with the theme, The Next 100 Years, Experience What's Possible. We showcased our continuous investment in the core technologies of autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity and digital, and electrification.

本月初，卡特彼勒在 2025 年國際消費電子展上拉開了為期一年的百年慶典序幕，主題為「未來 100 年，體驗無限可能」。我們展示了對自主性、替代燃料、連接性和數位化以及電氣化等核心技術的持續投資。

Our ability to provide these solutions reflects investments of more than $30 billion in R&D over the past 20 years to deliver best-in-class innovation. Taking center stage at the Caterpillar CES exhibit was a Cat 972 wheel loader retrofitted to be an extended range electrified machine hybrid technical demonstrator.

我們提供這些解決方案的能力反映了我們在過去 20 年中對研發的超過 300 億美元的投資，以實現一流的創新。卡特彼勒 CES 展會的焦點是一台經過改裝的 Cat 972 輪式裝載機，它是一款增程式電動機械混合動力技術示範機。

The demonstrator can run fully battery electric with zero exhaust emissions for several hours. It has an onboard generator and charger that enables full day uptime without requiring investment in direct current or DC charging infrastructure. In initial testing, the demonstrator maintains or exceeds the performance of a Cat 972 internal combustion machine while providing customers with the benefits of a hybrid system.

該演示器可以完全依靠電池電力運行數小時，且零廢氣排放。它配備車載發電機和充電器，可實現全天正常運行，無需投資直流電或直流充電基礎設施。在初步測試中，此演示器保持或超過了 Cat 972 內燃機的性能，同時為客戶提供了混合動力系統的優勢。

With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給安德魯。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with a summary of the fourth quarter and then provide more detailed comments, including some on the performance of the segments. Next, I'll discuss the balance sheet and free cash flow, before concluding with comments on our high-level assumptions for 2025 as well as expectations for the first quarter.

謝謝你，吉姆，大家早安。我將首先總結第四季度，然後提供更詳細的評論，包括一些關於各部門表現的評論。接下來，我將討論資產負債表和自由現金流，最後對我們對 2025 年的高層假設以及對第一季的預期進行評論。

Beginning on Slide 9. Sales and revenues were $16.2 billion, a 5% decrease versus the prior year. As Jim mentioned, sales were slightly lower than we had anticipated, which together with unfavorable mix resulted in lower-than-expected margins for the quarter.

從投影片 9 開始。銷售額和收入為 162 億美元，比上年下降 5%。正如吉姆所提到的，銷售額略低於我們的預期，再加上不利的產品組合導致本季的利潤率低於預期。

Adjusted operating profit was $3 billion, and our adjusted operating profit margin was 18.3%. Profit per share was $5.78 in the fourth quarter compared to $5.28 in the fourth quarter of last year. Adjusted profit per share was $5.14 in the quarter, a 2% decrease compared to $5.23 last year. Adjusted profit per share excluded a discrete tax benefit of $0.46 for a tax law change related to currency translation.

調整後的營業利潤為 30 億美元，調整後的營業利益率為 18.3%。第四季每股利潤為 5.78 美元，而去年第四季為 5.28 美元。本季調整後每股利潤為 5.14 美元，較去年同期的 5.23 美元下降 2%。調整後每股利潤不包括與貨幣換算相關的稅法變化產生的 0.46 美元的單獨稅收優惠。

Mark-to-market gains of $0.23 for the remeasurement of pension and other post-employment benefit plans was also excluded in addition to restructuring costs of $0.05 in the quarter. Other income and expense was $185 million favorable versus the prior year, mostly driven by a positive currency impact related to ME&T balance sheet translation, which compared to a negative impact in the fourth quarter last year.

本季度，除了 0.05 美元的重組成本外，還排除了因重新計量退休金和其他離職後福利計劃而產生的 0.23 美元的按市價計價收益。其他收入和支出較上年同期增加 1.85 億美元，主要由於與 ME&T 資產負債表轉換相關的正面貨幣影響，而去年第四季則產生負面影響。

As I've mentioned previously, we do not anticipate currency translation movements, so the positive impact on the fourth quarter of 2024 helped offset the impact of operating profit being lower than expected.

正如我之前提到的，我們預計不會出現貨幣轉換變動，因此對 2024 年第四季的正面影響有助於抵消營業利潤低於預期的影響。

Excluding discrete items, the provision for income taxes in the fourth quarter of 2024 reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 22.2%. This was slightly lower than we had expected a quarter ago and benefited the quarter by $0.09.

不包括單一項目，2024 年第四季的所得稅準備金反映的全球年度有效稅率為 22.2%。這比我們一個季度前的預期略低，並為本季帶來 0.09 美元的收益。

Finally, the year-over-year impact from the reduction in the average number of shares outstanding, primarily due to share repurchases, resulted in a favorable impact on adjusted profit per share of approximately $0.24 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

最後，主要由於股票回購導致平均流通股數減少，對調整後每股利潤產生了約 0.24 美元的有利影響，與 2023 年第四季相比。

Moving on to Slide 10. I'll discuss the top line results for the fourth quarter. Sales and revenues decreased by 5% compared to the prior year, primarily impacted by lower sales volume. Price was unfavorable year-over-year and about in line with what we had expected.

移至投影片 10。我將討論第四季的營收業績。銷售額和收入與前一年相比下降了 5%，主要受到銷售量下降的影響。價格同比不利，與我們的預期大致相符。

Lower volume was driven by the impact from changes in dealer inventories and a 2% year-over-year decrease in total sales to users. Total machine dealer inventory decreased by $1.6 billion in the quarter compared to $1.4 billion decrease in the prior year.

銷量下降是由於經銷商庫存變化的影響以及用戶總銷售額年減 2%。本季機器經銷商總庫存減少了 16 億美元，而去年同期則減少了 14 億美元。

The decrease in machine dealer inventory was larger than we had expected and is mostly a function of higher-than-anticipated sales to users across both Construction Industries in North America and Resource Industries.

機械經銷商庫存的下降幅度超出了我們的預期，主要是因為北美建築業和資源業的用戶銷售額高於預期。

Service revenues increased in the quarter compared to 2023. As I mentioned, the sales decrease in the quarter was slightly larger than we had anticipated. This was mostly due to services growing at a slightly slower rate than we had expected and some delivery delays in Energy & Transportation.

與 2023 年相比，本季服務收入有所增加。正如我所提到的，本季的銷售額下降幅度略高於我們的預期。這主要是因為服務業的成長速度比我們預期的略慢，以及能源和運輸業的一些交付延遲。

Moving to operating profit on Slide 11. Operating profit in the fourth quarter decreased by 7% to $2.9 billion. Adjusted operating profit decreased by 8% to $3 billion, mainly due to the profit impact of lower-than-expected sales volume.

前往投影片 11 上的營業利潤。第四季營業利潤下降7%至29億美元。調整後營業利潤下降8%至30億美元，主要由於銷售量低於預期對利潤的影響。

As I mentioned, for the fourth quarter, the adjusted operating profit margin was 18.3%, a 60 basis points decrease compared to the prior year. This was lower than we had anticipated, mainly due to a lower-than-expected sales volume and the impact of unfavorable mix.

正如我所提到的，第四季調整後的營業利潤率為 18.3%，比前一年下降了 60 個基點。這低於我們的預期，主要是由於銷售量低於預期以及不利的產品組合的影響。

On Slide 12, Construction Industries sales decreased by 8% in the fourth quarter to $6 billion. This was slightly below our expectations on lower-than-anticipated volume. Compared to the prior year, the 8% sales decrease was primarily due to unfavorable price realization and lower sales volume.

在第 12 張投影片上，建築業的銷售額在第四季度下降了 8%，至 60 億美元。由於交易量低於預期，這略低於我們的預期。與去年相比，銷售額下降 8% 主要是由於價格實現不利和銷售量下降。

The decrease in sales volume was mainly driven by lower sales of equipment to end users and dealers reducing their inventory by slightly more than they did during the fourth quarter of 2023. By region, Construction Industries sales in North America decreased by 14%. In Latin America, sales increased by 6%. Sales in the EAME region decreased by 1% and Asia Pacific sales decreased by 2%.

銷量下降主要是由於對最終用戶的設備銷售額下降以及經銷商庫存減少幅度略高於 2023 年第四季。按地區劃分，北美建築業銷售額下降了 14%。在拉丁美洲，銷售額成長了6%。東非和非洲地區銷售額下降 1%，亞太地區銷售額下降 2%。

Fourth quarter profit for Construction Industries was $1.2 billion, a 24% decrease versus the prior year. This was primarily due to unfavorable price realization as a result of the impact of the post-sales merchandising programs that we discussed with you in October.

建築業第四季獲利 12 億美元，比上年下降 24%。這主要是由於我們十月與您討論的售後行銷計劃的影響導致價格實現不利。

The segment's margin of 19.6% was a decrease of 390 basis points versus the prior year. The margin was lower than we had anticipated, primarily impacted by lower volume and unfavorable mix. Manufacturing costs were also unfavorable versus our expectations, principally due to a headwind from cost absorption as our inventory in Construction Industries declined.

該部門的利潤率為 19.6%，比前一年下降了 390 個基點。利潤率低於我們的預期，主要受到銷售量較低和產品組合不利的影響。製造成本也不符合我們的預期，主要是因為建築業庫存下降導致成本吸收出現阻力。

Turning to Slide 13. Resource Industries sales decreased by 9% in the fourth quarter to $3 billion. This was below our expectations, mainly due to services growing at a slightly lower rate than we had anticipated. As we compare to the prior year, the 9% sales decrease was primarily due to lower sales volume, mainly driven by the impact from changes in dealer inventories.

翻到幻燈片 13。資源產業第四季銷售額下降 9%，至 30 億美元。這低於我們的預期，主要是因為服務成長率略低於我們的預期。與去年相比，銷售額下降 9% 主要是由於銷售量下降，而銷售量下降主要是受經銷商庫存變化的影響。

Dealer inventory decreased more in the fourth quarter of 2024 than it did in the fourth quarter of 2023. Fourth quarter profit for Resource Industries decreased by 22% versus the prior year to $466 million. This is mainly due to the profit impact of lower sales volume. The segment's margin of 15.7% was a decrease of 280 basis points versus the prior year. This was lower than we had anticipated, primarily due to lower volume.

2024 年第四季經銷商庫存下降幅度大於 2023 年第四季。資源工業公司第四季利潤較上年同期下降 22% 至 4.66 億美元。這主要是由於銷量下降對利潤的影響。該部門的利潤率為 15.7%，比前一年下降了 280 個基點。這低於我們的預期，主要是因為交易量較低。

Now on Slide 14. Energy & Transportation sales of $7.6 billion were about flat versus the prior year. Sales were slightly below our expectations due to a lower-than-expected services growth rate, largely in oil and gas and the timing of deliveries of international locomotives.

現在看投影片 14。能源與運輸銷售額為 76 億美元，與去年持平。由於服務成長率低於預期（主要是石油和天然氣領域）以及國際機車交付時間，銷售額略低於我們的預期。

Compared to the prior year, sales were roughly flat as the impact of lower sales volume was mostly offset by favorable price realization. By application, power generation sales increased by 22%, transportation sales were lower by 1%, oil and gas sales decreased by 14%, and industrial sales decreased by 14%.

與前一年相比，銷售額基本上持平，因為銷售量下降的影響大部分被有利的價格實現所抵消。依應用劃分，發電銷售額成長22%，運輸銷售額下降1%，石油和天然氣銷售額下降14%，工業銷售額下降14%。

Fourth quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 3% versus the prior year to $1.5 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price realization, partially offset by the profit impact of lower sales volume.

能源與運輸部門第四季獲利較上年同期成長 3%，達 15 億美元。利潤成長主要歸因於有利的價格實現，但被銷售下降對利潤的影響部分抵銷。

The segment's margin of 19.3% was an increase of 70 basis points versus the prior year. This was lower than we had anticipated, primarily due to lower-than-expected volume and an unfavorable mix of products.

該部門的利潤率為 19.3%，比前一年增加了 70 個基點。這低於我們的預期，主要是因為銷售量低於預期以及產品組合不利。

Moving to Slide 15. Financial Products revenues increased by 4% versus the prior year to about $1 billion, primarily due to higher average earning assets in North America and higher average financing rates across all regions except North America.

移至投影片 15。金融產品收入較上年增長 4%，達到約 10 億美元，主要原因是北美平均生息資產增加，以及除北美以外所有地區平均融資利率增加。

Segment profit decreased by 29% to $166 million. This was mainly due to an unfavorable impact from equity securities in addition to lower margin and a higher provision for credit losses. Our customers' financial health remains strong. Past dues were 1.56% in the quarter, down 23 basis points versus the prior year and our lowest level since 2005.

分部利潤下降29%至1.66億美元。這主要是由於股權證券的不利影響，以及利潤率較低和信貸損失準備金較高。我們客戶的財務狀況依然良好。本季逾期率為 1.56%，較上年下降 23 個基點，為 2005 年以來的最低水準。

The allowance rate was 0.91%, remaining near historic lows. Business activity at Cat Financial remains healthy. Retail credit applications increased and our retail new business volume grew by 3% versus the prior year. This was our highest level since 2012, supported by attractive financing packages for customers choosing to buy Caterpillar equipment.

撥備率為0.91%，仍接近歷史低點。Cat Financial 的業務活動依然健康。零售信貸申請增加，零售新業務量較上年成長3%。這是我們自 2012 年以來的最高水平，這得益於為選擇購買卡特彼勒設​​備的客戶提供的有吸引力的融資方案。

We continue to see proportionally more of our sales financed through Cat Financial. In addition, demand for used equipment remains healthy and inventories remain at low levels. Conversion rates are above historical averages as customers choose to buy equipment at the end of their lease term.

我們繼續看到透過 Cat Financial 融資的銷售額比例不斷增加。此外，二手設備的需求依然健康，庫存仍處於低水準。由於客戶選擇在租賃期結束時購買設備，因此轉換率高於歷史平均。

Moving on to Slide 16. We continue to generate strong ME&T free cash flow. The $9.4 billion in 2024 was near the top end of our target range and just slightly lower than the prior year despite a larger payment for short-term incentive compensation and higher capital expenditure. CapEx for the year was about $2 billion, which was in line with our expectations.

轉到投影片 16。我們繼續產生強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流。2024 年的 94 億美元接近我們目標範圍的上限，儘管短期激勵薪酬支付金額較大且資本支出增加，但略低於前一年。全年資本支出約 20 億美元，符合我們的預期。

Moving to capital deployment. In 2024, we returned $10.3 billion to shareholders through repurchased stock and dividends. On share repurchases, we deployed $7.7 billion as we continue to fulfill our objective to be in the market on a more consistent basis.

轉向資本部署。2024年，我們透過回購股票和股利向股東返還了103億美元。在股票回購方面，我們部署了 77 億美元，以繼續實現我們以更穩定的方式進入市場的目標。

Our balance sheet remains strong with an enterprise cash balance of $6.9 billion. In addition, we hold $2 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，企業現金餘額為 69 億美元。此外，我們也持有 20 億美元期限稍長的流動有價證券，以提高現金收益率。

Now on Slide 17. Let me start with a high-level overview of our expectations for the full year. We expect a slight decrease in sales for 2025 with an unfavorable impact from both volume and price. Due to the impact of post-sales merchandising programs, price realization should account for about a 1% decrease in sales for the full year.

現在看投影片 17。首先，讓我從整體上概述一下我們對全年的期望。我們預計 2025 年的銷售量將略有下降，銷售量和價格都會產生不利影響。由於售後商品推銷計畫的影響，價格實現應導致全年銷售額下降約 1%。

On margins, the impact of price, together with higher depreciation costs due to the investments we are making, should result in adjusted operating profit margins being in the top half of the target range of the expected level of sales rather than being above the top end of the range as occurred in 2024.

就利潤率而言，價格的影響，加上我們正在進行的投資導致的折舊成本上升，應該會導致調整後的營業利潤率處於預期銷售水平目標範圍的上半部分，而不是像 2024 年那樣高於該範圍的上限。

Our margin targets are progressive. So while we would expect volume to have an impact on absolute margins, our target range is adjusted for lower sales. We expect a slight headwind in other income and expense in 2025, primarily due to lower interest income, mostly due to lower interest rates as well as the absence of the positive currency benefit from ME&T balance sheet translation that occurred in 2024. As I mentioned, we do not anticipate translation movements in our expectations.

我們的利潤目標是漸進的。因此，雖然我們預期銷售量會對絕對利潤率產生影響，但我們的目標範圍會根據較低的銷售量進行調整。我們預計 2025 年其他收入和支出將略有下降，主要原因是利息收入減少，這主要是由於利率降低以及 2024 年 ME&T 資產負債表轉換帶來的正貨幣收益消失。正如我所提到的，我們並沒有預期到翻譯運動。

We expect restructuring costs of approximately $150 million to $200 million in 2025. We anticipate a global annual effective tax rate of 23% for 2025, excluding discrete items. While the impact of the share buyback should be positive, we expect to have less ME&T free cash flow to deploy in 2025. This implies a less favorable impact to profit per share in 2025 as compared to 2024.

我們預計 2025 年重組成本約為 1.5 億至 2 億美元。我們預計 2025 年全球年度有效稅率為 23%，不包括離散項目。雖然股票回購的影響應該是正面的，但我們預計 2025 年可部署的 ME&T 自由現金流將會減少。這意味著與 2024 年相比，2025 年每股獲利的影響較小。

By segment, lower sales in Construction Industries and Resource Industries will be partially offset by sales growth in Energy & Transportation. For Construction Industries, we expect lower sales in 2025 based on the outlook Jim described and unfavorable price realization.

從細分市場來看，建築業和資源產業的銷售下降將被能源和運輸業的銷售成長部分抵銷。對於建築業，根據 Jim 所描述的前景和不利的價格實現，我們預計 2025 年的銷售額將會下降。

In Resource Industries, we anticipate slightly lower sales versus 2024, driven by unfavorable price realization and slightly lower volume. Higher volumes and favorable price in Energy & Transportation should drive sales growth, though sales remain constrained, and so the benefits of the investments we are making in large engines begin to flow through beyond 2025.

在資源產業，我們預計銷售額將比 2024 年略有下降，原因是價格實現不利且銷量略有下降。儘管銷售仍然受到限制，但能源和交通運輸領域的銷量增加和價格優惠應該會推動銷售成長，因此我們在大型引擎方面的投資收益將在 2025 年以後開始顯現。

We also anticipate another year of services growth in each of our primary segments. Currently, we do not anticipate a significant change in dealer inventory of machines by the end of 2025.

我們也預計，我們各主要部門的服務業務在未來一年都將成長。目前，我們預計到 2025 年底經銷商的機器庫存不會有重大變化。

Moving on to ME&T free cash flow. We expect to be in the top half of our target range of $5 billion to $10 billion. The first quarter of 2025 will be impacted by a $1.4 billion cash outflow related to the payout of last year's incentive compensation.

繼續討論 ME&T 自由現金流。我們預計該數字將達到我們目標範圍的上半部分，即 50 億至 100 億美元。2025 年第一季將受到與去年激勵薪酬支付相關的 14 億美元現金流出的影響。

We anticipate CapEx of about $2.5 billion in 2025, as we continue to make disciplined investments that are right for our business, governed by our focus on growing absolute OPACC dollars. This includes the multiyear capital investment to expand our large engine volume output capability that we mentioned last year.

我們預計 2025 年的資本支出約為 25 億美元，因為我們將繼續進行適合我們業務的有紀律的投資，並以增加絕對 OPACC 美元為重點。這包括我們去年提到的為擴大大型引擎產量能力而進行的多年資本投資。

Turning to Slide 18. To assist with your modeling, I'll provide some color on the first quarter, starting with the top line, we expect lower sales versus the prior year. For perspective, in a typical year, we see our lowest sales in the first quarter of the year.

翻到幻燈片 18。為了幫助您建模，我將提供一些第一季的詳細信息，從頂線開始，我們預計銷售額將低於上年。從角度來看，在典型的一年中，我們的銷售額在第一季是最低的。

In 2025, we anticipate that trend to continue, but be more pronounced as sales in the first quarter should account for a lower percentage of full year sales than is typical by about 100 basis points. This decrease is mainly due to our expectations for dealer inventory movements and price, which primarily impacts machines.

我們預計，到 2025 年，這一趨勢將持續下去，但會更加明顯，因為第一季的銷售額佔全年銷售額的比例將比通常水平低約 100 個基點。這一下降主要是由於我們對經銷商庫存變動和價格的預期，這主要影響機器。

Energy & Transportation is expected to show normal seasonality with sales growing throughout the year. Let me explain. Although dealers did reduce their machine inventories significantly in the fourth quarter, they remain around the top end of the range as we enter '25.

預計能源和交通運輸將呈現正常的季節性，全年銷售將成長。讓我解釋一下。儘管經銷商在第四季度確實大幅減少了機器庫存，但進入25年後，庫存仍處於最高水準。

This compares with dealer inventories and Construction Industries being towards the middle of the range at the beginning of 2024. As a result, we expect them to build correspondingly less machine inventory during the first quarter than the $1.1 billion that they built in the first quarter of 2024.

相比之下，2024 年初經銷商庫存和建築業庫存處於中間水準。因此，我們預計他們在第一季建造的機器庫存將比 2024 年第一季建造的 11 億美元相應減少。

As we expect machine dealer inventory to be about flat by year-end, we should see a tailwind to sales in the fourth quarter, as we don't expect a similar machine dealer inventory change as we have seen in the last two years.

由於我們預計機械經銷商庫存到年底將基本持平，我們應該會看到第四季度的銷售出現順風，因為我們預計機械經銷商庫存不會出現與過去兩年類似的變化。

We also expect unfavorable price realization for machines in the first quarter due to the impact of post-sales merchandising programs. We would expect these price impacts to be greater for machines in the first half of the year as the noticeable impact of post-sales merchandising programs started in the third quarter of 2024, making for an easier comparison in the second half.

我們也預計，由於售後行銷計劃的影響，第一季機器的價格實現將不利。我們預計，由於售後行銷計畫的明顯影響在 2024 年第三季開始顯現，因此上半年機器的價格影響會更大，更容易在下半年進行比較。

So to pull together the impact by segment, we anticipate lower sales in Construction Industries in the first quarter, impacted by lower sales to users, the headwind from changes in dealer inventory and price, the impact of which should be similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter of 2024.

因此，綜合各部門的影響，我們預計第一季建築業的銷售額將下降，受到用戶銷售額下降、經銷商庫存和價格變化的阻力的影響，其影響應該與我們在 2024 年第四季度看到的影響類似。

In Resource Industries in the first quarter, we expect lower sales volume versus the prior year, impacted by lower volume and unfavorable price realization. In Energy & Transportation, we anticipate similar sales in the first quarter versus the prior year as continued strength in power generation is about offset by lower oil and gas and transportation sales. Price should be positive for Energy & Transportation.

在資源產業，我們預期第一季的銷售量將比去年同期有所下降，原因是銷售下降和價格實現不利。在能源和運輸領域，我們預計第一季的銷售額與去年同期相似，因為發電量的持續強勁被石油、天然氣和運輸銷售的下降所抵消。能源和運輸的價格應該會呈現正面態勢。

Now I'll provide some color on first quarter margin expectations. Though enterprise margins are typically stronger in the first quarter compared to the remaining quarters of the year, we do not expect the seasonable trend to occur in 2025.

現在我將對第一季的利潤預期提供一些資訊。儘管與一年中其他季度相比，第一季的企業利潤率通常更高，但我們預計 2025 年不會出現這種季節性趨勢。

Compared to the prior year, we anticipate a lower enterprise adjusted operating profit margin in the first quarter due primarily to lower-than-usual volume and price. Volume is impacted by the lower build of machine dealer inventory and slightly lower sales to users for machines.

與去年同期相比，我們預計第一季企業調整後的營業利潤率將有所下降，主要原因是銷售量和價格低於正常水平。銷售量受到機器經銷商庫存減少和機器用戶銷售略有下降的影響。

Unfavorable price realization for machines is principally due to the factors I've discussed previously, which will be partially offset by favorable price in Energy & Transportation. We expect there will be improvement in fourth quarter margins, offsetting the volume impact in the first quarter due to stronger volume in the fourth quarter than is typical.

機器價格實現不利主要是由於我之前討論過的因素，而能源和運輸行業的優惠價格將部分抵消這些因素。我們預計第四季度的利潤率將會提高，由於第四季度的銷量高於往年，從而抵消第一季的銷售影響。

By segment, in the first quarter, in Construction Industries, we anticipate lower margins compared to the prior year, due primarily to lower volume and price. We do not expect to see the margin benefit we typically see in the first quarter of the year as compared to the fourth quarter, which is generally in the range of 100 basis points to 200 basis points. Again, some of this will be offset in the fourth quarter as volume is favorable and price more neutral.

按部門劃分，在第一季度，我們預計建築業的利潤率將比去年同期有所下降，主要原因是銷量和價格下降。與第四季相比，我們預計今年第一季的利潤率不會有太大提高，第四季的利潤率通常在 100 個基點到 200 個基點之間。同樣，由於交易量有利且價格更加中性，其中一部分將在第四季度得到抵消。

In Resource Industries, we anticipate lower margin in the first quarter compared to the prior year, mainly due to lower volume and unfavorable price realization. In Energy & Transportation, we expect slightly lower margin versus the prior year, as favorable price realization is more than offset by higher manufacturing costs and unfavorable mix impacts.

在資源產業，我們預計第一季的利潤率將比去年同期下降，主要原因是產量下降和價格實現不利。在能源和交通運輸領域，我們預計利潤率將比去年略有下降，因為有利的價格實現被更高的製造成本和不利的產品組合影響所抵消。

Again, as a reminder, this detail is provided to help you model the first quarter and does not impact our expectations for the full year that I set out earlier, which is a slight decrease in sales and revenues for the year and margins in the top half of the target range.

再次提醒，提供此細節是為了幫助您模擬第一季度，並不影響我先前提出的全年預期，即全年銷售額和收入略有下降，利潤率處於目標範圍的上半部分。

So turning to Slide 19, let me summarize. Adjusted profit per share of $21.90 exceeded last year's record by 3%. This was our third straight year with record adjusted profit per share. Adjusted operating profit margin of 20.7% exceeded the top of our target range.

請翻到投影片 19，讓我總結一下。調整後每股利潤為 21.90 美元，比去年的記錄高出 3%。這是我們連續第三年創下調整後每股獲利紀錄。調整後的營業利益率為 20.7%，超過了我們的目標範圍上限。

ME&T free cash flow of $9.4 billion was near the top of the target range of $5 billion to $10 billion. For 2025, while we expect a slight drop in sales, we expect to be in the top half of the adjusted operating profit margin range and in the top half of the ME&T free cash flow target range, and we anticipate another year of services growth. We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

ME&T 自由現金流為 94 億美元，接近 50 億至 100 億美元的目標範圍上限。對於 2025 年，雖然我們預計銷售額會略有下降，但我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將處於上半部分，ME&T 自由現金流目標將處於上半部分，我們預計服務業務將再增長一年。我們將繼續執行長期獲利成長策略。

And with that, we'll take your questions.

接下來，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Stephen Volkmann，Jefferies。

I guess I'll dive in, if I could, since it's timely. Just, Jim, how are you seeing the data center business now? There's obviously some concern about what that's going to look like longer term. I know you're adding some capacity. Can you just discuss any changes in your view relative to data center demand?

我想如果可以的話我會深入研究，因為它很及時。吉姆，您現在如何看待資料中心業務？顯然，人們對長期來看的情況有些擔憂。我知道你正在增加一些容量。您能否討論一下您對資料中心需求的看法有何變化？

Yeah. We continue to see strong demand for both our reciprocating engines and our gas turbines. Just in conversations with customers, it's really all about how quickly can you increase capacity for your reciprocating engines and how quickly can you get us a large gas turbine.

是的。我們繼續看到對往復式發動機和燃氣渦輪機的強勁需求。在與客戶的交談中，我們真正關心的是你們能多快地提高往復式發動機的容量，以及你們能多快地為我們提供大型燃氣渦輪機。

So we're very encouraged about what we see happening in the marketplace. Many customers are planning orders with us over multiple years to ensure that we can meet their needs. And as a reminder, we said that with the investments we're making in our large reciprocating engines, we are expanding capacity by about 125% over 2023, that will happen over the next several years.

因此，我們對市場上發生的事情感到非常鼓舞。許多客戶計劃向我們訂購多年的訂單，以確保我們能夠滿足他們的需求。提醒一下，我們說過，透過對大型往復式引擎的投資，到 2023 年，我們的產能將擴大約 125%，這將在未來幾年內實現。

And with solar, we have a new product, the Titan 350. We're very encouraged by the acceptance in the market that we're seeing for that product. And of course, a lot of that is being driven by data centers. So again, still very, very positive from our perspective.

有了太陽能，我們推出了一款新產品，Titan 350。看到該產品在市場上受到廣泛認可，我們感到非常鼓舞。當然，其中很大一部分是由資料中心推動的。所以，從我們的角度來看，這仍然非常非常積極。

Michael Feniger, Bank of America.

美國銀行的麥可費尼格。

Just on the -- for dealers, just to see the inventory, I think in 2023, machines built $700 million for the full year; '24, inventory is down $700 million. I know you guys are thinking North American construction end user is down a little bit on '25.

僅就經銷商而言，僅查看庫存，我認為在 2023 年，全年機器產量為 7 億美元；'24，庫存減少了 7 億美元。我知道你們認為 25 年北美建築終端用戶數量略有下降。

So how do you kind of get comfortable with where those dealer inventories are going to stay the same on the machine side? And did anything change post election in terms of the views around -- on the inventories? Because I think there were some comments that the retail sales end users was a little bit better than expected in terms of how it's informing your view on '25.

那麼，您如何確保經銷商的機器庫存保持不變呢？選舉之後，人們對庫存的看法有什麼改變嗎？因為我認為有一些評論說，就您對 25 年的看法而言，零售最終用戶的情況比預期要好一些。

Yeah. So as you correctly point out, we did see a dealer inventory build for machines in 2023. Most of that actually was in [Construction] Industries (corrected by company after the call). And in fact, most of the decline this year year-over-year actually is in Resource Industries rather than Construction Industries.

是的。因此，正如您正確指出的那樣，我們確實看到經銷商在 2023 年建立了機器庫存。其中大部分實際上是在建築業（公司在通話後已更正）。事實上，今年同比下降的大部分實際上是資源行業，而不是建築業。

So that's part of the balance. As we know, with Resource Industries, a lot of that is around timing of commissioning. We did see better than we expected commissioning in the fourth quarter of 2024, which will have some impact on the first quarter of 2025, but that was a positive as we actually -- dealers were able to deliver more machines to customers, particularly on the RI side.

所以這是平衡的一部分。我們知道，對於資源產業來說，很大程度取決於調試時間。我們確實看到 2024 年第四季的調試情況好於預期，這將對 2025 年第一季產生一定影響，但這是一個積極的方面，因為我們實際上——經銷商能夠向客戶交付更多機器，特別是在 RI 方面。

Overall, on the CI side, based on our conversation -- obviously, we engage with conversations with dealers. Dealers are independent businesses. They determine what level of inventory they hold. They base that on their expectations for the outlook for the market.

總體而言，在 CI 方面，根據我們的對話——顯然，我們與經銷商進行了對話。經銷商是獨立的企業。他們決定持有的庫存水準。他們根據對市場前景的預期做出這項判斷。

Obviously, our expectation, based on what we're seeing today is, as you know, that not all of our end markets are exactly in sync as we think about from a CI perspective. And based on our conversations, we don't expect a material reduction in dealer inventory as we go through the year.

顯然，根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們的預期是，正如您所知，從 CI 角度來看，並非所有終端市場都完全同步。根據我們的談話，我們預計今年經銷商庫存不會大幅減少。

Yes, we did see STUs were slightly better in North America than we expected in the fourth quarter. That is probably one of the first times we've actually seen that trend and maybe some benefit from some of our post-sales merchandising programs, but we're not calling that for 2025 yet. We still think that's somewhere where we need a lot of work still to be seen to make sure that we're actually seeing that continue to flow through.

是的，我們確實看到北美第四季的 STU 表現比我們預期的要好一些。這可能是我們第一次真正看到這種趨勢，也許我們的一些售後行銷計劃會給我們帶來一些好處，但我們還沒有預測 2025 年就會出現這種情況。我們仍然認為，在這方面我們還需要做很多工作，以確保我們確實看到這種趨勢繼續蔓延。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

So my question is on -- you have a large and diverse oil and gas business. And I'm wondering if you could characterize, especially, if you will, on gas compression, kind of where you think you are in the cycle. Obviously, we've had Europe, we've had Russia. We've had lots of different demand shifting around. And there may be other growth areas, et cetera. I just wonder if you could give a little bit of an outlook on oil and gas.

所以我的問題是──你們擁有龐大且多樣化的石油和天然氣業務。我想知道您是否可以描述一下，特別是關於氣體壓縮，您認為自己處於循環的哪個階段。顯然，我們有歐洲，我們有俄羅斯。我們面臨著許多不同的變化需求。並且可能還有其他成長領域等等。我只是想知道您是否可以對石油和天然氣做一些展望。

Yeah, certainly. We are expecting moderate growth in 2025 for oil and gas in total. For recip, we expect engine services to be slightly down for the year, really driven by gas compression and well servicing. We did see some order pickup in recip gas compression in late 2024.

是的，當然。我們預計 2025 年石油和天然氣總量將出現溫和成長。對於往復式發動機，我們預計今年的發動機服務將略有下降，這主要是受到氣體壓縮和油井服務的影響。我們確實看到 2024 年底往復式氣體壓縮訂單有所回升。

On the solar turbine side, very healthy backlog, healthy order intake and inquiry activity. We do expect growth in oil and gas in the year. We are seeing, to your specific question about gas compression, solar does have a lot of activity around gas transmission, gas compression, particularly in the United States.

在太陽能渦輪機方面，積壓訂單、訂單量和詢價活動都非常健康。我們確實預計今年石油和天然氣產量將會成長。對於您關於氣體壓縮的具體問題，我們看到，太陽能在氣體輸送、氣體壓縮方面確實有很多活動，特別是在美國。

So many pipeline customers are adding compression to existing pipelines. So again, that business is quite strong and a lot of quotation activity as well.

許多管道客戶正在對現有管道增加壓縮。所以，該業務相當強勁，報價活動也很多。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

David Raso，Evercore ISI。

I'm curious, obviously trying to think about margins for '25 for the segments. And I was a little surprised by price cost being negative, right? The manufacturing cost had been a positive year-over-year. All of a sudden, the comp gets harder, right? That's why the fourth quarter wasn't going to be as easy.

我很好奇，顯然是在思考 25 年各部分的利潤率。我對價格成本為負感到有點驚訝，對嗎？製造成本較去年同期呈正成長。突然之間，比賽就變得更加困難了，對吧？這就是為什麼第四季不會那麼輕鬆。

But to see the cost up, I noticed you called out E&T. But does that imply CI and RI manufacturing costs were still a benefit year-over-year and all the cost is in E&T? And maybe if you can just provide that kind of framework from the fourth quarter to how to think about full year '25 price cost?

但看到成本上升，我注意到你叫了 E&T。但這是否意味著 CI 和 RI 製造成本同比仍然有收益，並且所有成本都在 E&T 中？也許您能提供從第四季到如何考慮全年 25 年價格成本的框架嗎？

Yeah. David, if you recall, actually in my comments, I did call out within CI a negative absorption in the fourth quarter as we did reduce CI inventory. So manufacturing costs were also negative in CI. In E&T, most of that was a function actually of putting more labor in the factories to get more machines out the door or more engines out the door at the end of the year.

是的。大衛，如果你還記得的話，實際上在我的評論中，我確實提到了第四季度 CI 內部的負吸收，因為我們確實減少了 CI 庫存。因此，製造成本在 CI 中也為負值。在工程與技術方面，這實際上是在工廠投入更多的勞動力，以便在年底生產更多的機器或更多的引擎。

And that obviously reflects the demand we're seeing. And obviously, remember that we are still trying to build up capacity, particularly on the large engine side, and that really is what's driving that in particular.

這顯然反映了我們所看到的需求。顯然，請記住，我們仍在努力提高產能，特別是在大型引擎方面，而這才是真正的推動力。

On material costs, our expectations are that material costs will decline in 2025. However, there are some offsets within manufacturing costs, which go the other way. Some of that relates to volume and absorption as a result of that, which means that we don't get the cost price offset that we've had in previous years. So most of that is the reason and the rationale by segment for that.

關於材料成本，我們預計2025年材料成本將會下降。然而，製造成本中也存在一些抵消，這是相反的。其中一些與產量和吸收量有關，這意味著我們無法獲得前幾年所獲得的成本價格抵消。所以大部分都是各個部分的原因和理由。

So yes, material costs will be favorable, but manufacturing costs will be broadly in line with our expectations. Remember, also other things come in mix and so forth as well. And finally, just one thing to remember, the depreciation I called out, actually, most of that is within manufacturing costs as well.

所以是的，材料成本將是有利的，但製造成本將大致符合我們的預期。請記住，還有其他東西混合在一起等等。最後，只需記住一件事，我所說的折舊實際上大部分也包含在製造成本中。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

Jim, Andrew, I'm wondering if you could just talk about your solar turbine lead times? And how are you thinking about potentially adding additional roofline capacity for turbine specifically? We're hearing optimism on the Titan 350 from the customer base and assuming what we saw earlier this week is a blip on the radar. I'm just wondering how are you thinking about capacity for that range of products?

吉姆、安德魯，我想知道你們能否談談你們的太陽能渦輪機的交貨時間？您如何考慮專門為渦輪機增加額外的屋頂容量？我們從客戶那裡聽到了對 Titan 350 的樂觀態度，並假設我們本週早些時候看到的情況只是曇花一現。我只是想知道您如何看待該系列產品的產能？

Yeah. As I mentioned earlier, we're seeing strong backlog and strong inquiry and order activity for solar for both power generation and gas compression. We can increase capacity without building new factories since you used the roofline -- mentioned roofline in your question.

是的。正如我之前提到的，我們看到太陽能發電和氣體壓縮領域的積壓訂單量龐大，詢價和訂單活動也十分活躍。由於您使用了屋頂線——您在問題中提到了屋頂線，因此我們無需建造新工廠即可提高產能。

So certainly, there are things that we can do within our facilities. One is just increasingly manufacture and you can do things like add an additional test cell to an existing facility, maybe add an engine build pit, things like that. One of the big issues, of course, is working with suppliers to ensure that we get enough components from suppliers.

所以當然，我們可以在我們的設施內做一些事情。一是增加製造能力，你可以做一些事情，例如在現有設施中添加一個額外的測試單元，或者添加一個發動機建造坑，諸如此類。當然，其中一個大問題是與供應商合作，以確保我們從供應商那裡獲得足夠的零件。

And of course, just given the strength of the business, there's a lot of companies out there working with those same suppliers. So that can be a bit of a limiting factor. But in terms of actual investments required to increase capacity based on what we see coming, we don't see a need to build a brand-new factory or anything like that.

當然，鑑於業務實力，有很多公司正在與相同的供應商合作。所以這可能是個限制因素。但就我們預計的增加產能所需的實際投資而言，我們認為沒有必要建造一座全新的工廠或類似的東西。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

So my question is on the '25 operating profit guide. So you're guiding to the top end of the range for a given level of revenue for the full year. You've been guiding that way, I think, for the last year and actually have been hitting it.

我的問題是關於 25 年營業利潤指南。因此，您要指導全年給定收入水準的最高範圍。我認為，過去一年來您一直以這種方式引導，並且確實做到了。

So I guess like what would give you -- what do you think would drive you to, I guess, bring that guide back to the midpoint? Is it price cost normalizing? And in that same vein, I guess like how are you thinking about the evolution of price cost through '25? I guess when does that pressure peak and comps get easier?

所以我想，什麼會給你——你認為什麼會驅使你，我想，把這個指南帶回中點？價格成本正常化了嗎？同樣，我想問一下，您如何看待 25 年價格成本的演變？我猜什麼時候壓力達到頂峰並且補償變得更容易？

Maybe I'll start, then I'll kick it over to Andrew. Firstly, I believe what we said is we expect to be in the top half of the range for margins for 2025. And of course, our key measure here for our team is to grow absolute OPACC dollars because we believe that most closely aligns with TSR over time, of course, OPACC being operating profit after capital charge.

也許我會開始，然後我會把它交給安德魯。首先，我相信我們所說的是我們預計 2025 年的利潤率將處於該範圍的上半部分。當然，我們團隊的關鍵衡量標準是增加絕對 OPACC 美元，因為我們相信這與長期的 TSR 最為接近，當然，OPACC 是資本費用後的營業利潤。

So getting a return on the capital that we invest. And so again, a reminder, what we expect for 2025 is to be in the top half of the range. And with that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

因此，我們投資的資本就會獲得回報。因此，再次提醒一下，我們預計 2025 年將處於該範圍的上半部。現在，我將把發言權交給安德魯。

Yeah. And so on the price realization point, this really is relating to the post-sales merchandising programs that we discussed a little bit in the third quarter. Remind you just that, as I explained in the third quarter, that will take about a year to flow through.

是的。因此，就價格實現點而言，這實際上與我們在第三季度討論過的售後商品銷售計劃有關。提醒您，正如我在第三季所解釋的那樣，這將需要大約一年的時間才能完成。

And that relates to the fact that, obviously, in a world where demand is normalizing and supply is less constrained, obviously, we have merchandising programs to offer customers, particularly things like buying down interest rates.

這與以下事實有關：顯然，在一個需求正常化、供應不再那麼緊張的世界裡，我們顯然有商品推銷計畫可以提供給客戶，特別是像降低利率這樣的計畫。

As we said before, that's also an attractive option for us because, obviously, we get some margin benefit from that within Cat Financial over the term of the financing deal. What that does mean though is, as you saw from the Cat Financial numbers, new business volume is very high. Actually, their share is up.

正如我們之前所說，這對我們來說也是一個有吸引力的選擇，因為顯然，在融資交易期限內，我們可以從 Cat Financial 內部獲得一些利潤收益。但這確實意味著，正如您從 Cat Financial 數據中看到的那樣，新業務量非常高。事實上，他們的份額已經上升了。

So effectively, over time, we'll recover a little bit through Cat Financial, but we will have some margin pressure in the short term from those -- as those programs normalize. That mostly impacts machines, mostly impacts the first and second quarters, first half of the year. Once we get past Q3, we'll be past that and actually then return probably much more to a normal evolution of price/cost, which obviously we always try and work to make sure we can offset the two.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將透過 Cat Financial 稍微恢復一點，但隨著這些計劃的正常化，短期內我們的利潤率將面臨一些壓力。這主要影響機器，主要影響第一季、第二季和上半年。一旦我們度過第三季度，我們就會度過這一階段，然後實際上可能會恢復到價格/成本的正常演變，顯然我們總是試圖確保我們能夠抵消這兩者。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

Jamie Cook，Truist Securities。

My question relates to E&T. I guess, first, you called out sort of delays in shipments, I think, in the fourth quarter. Can you just give us color on that, how big that was and when that hits in terms of 2025? And then I was also surprised just your top line growth wasn't better in 2024.

我的問題與 E&T 有關。我想，首先，您提到了第四季度發貨延遲的情況。您能否具體說明一下，其規模有多大，以及 2025 年何時實現？然後我也感到驚訝的是，2024 年你的營業收入成長並沒有更好。

So how do we think about top line growth in 2025 and the incremental capacity coming online and how that helps your top line? Just any color there on how much your, I guess, top line in E&T was constrained in 2025 because of lack of capacity?

那我們如何看待 2025 年的營收成長和新增產能，以及這對您的營收有何幫助？我猜，到 2025 年，由於產能不足，E&T 的營收將受到多大程度的限制？

I'll answer the second part of the question first, and I'll kick it to Andrew for the first part. So as we've mentioned, we're making that investment to increase our capacity in large reciprocating engines by 125%. That takes some time.

我先回答問題的第二部分，第一部分交給安德魯。正如我們所提到的，我們正在進行這項投資，將大型往復式引擎的產能提高 125%。這需要一些時間。

I think we've talked about a four-year period to increase that capacity. So it does take time. So we do not expect that to be complete and to have an impact on 2024, and that's the case. So we could, in fact, ship more if we could build more, but we're working hard to increase that capacity.

我認為我們已經討論過用四年的時間來提高這項能力。所以這確實需要時間。因此，我們預計這不會完成並對 2024 年產生影響，事實就是如此。因此，如果我們能夠生產更多，我們實際上可以運送更多貨物，但我們正在努力提高產能。

Yeah. And as regards to the fourth quarter, most of the impact, as I indicated in my comments, was relating to services, particularly in oil and gas. That we'll need to see how that pans out as we go through the first quarter. With regards to the OE side, most of that was international locomotives, and that should hit early in the first half of 2025. And overall, just to remind you, we do expect E&T sales growth in 2025.

是的。至於第四季度，正如我在評論中指出的那樣，大部分影響都與服務業有關，特別是石油和天然氣行業。我們需要觀察第一季的情況如何。就 OE 方面而言，其中大部分是國際機車，預計在 2025 年上半年初實現。總的來說，需要提醒您的是，我們確實預計 2025 年 E&T 銷售額將會成長。

Mig Dobre, Baird.

米格·多布雷，貝爾德。

Andrew, just a very quick clarification on your comments for CI. At least as I heard, as I understood it, the relative pressure that we've seen in Q1 might be associated with this segment. So can you give us a sense for how you see this segment revenue and margin progressing sequentially, so relative to what you had in the fourth quarter?

安德魯，我只是想對你對 CI 的評論做一個非常快速的澄清。至少根據我所聽到的和理解的，我們在第一季看到的相對壓力可能與這一部分有關。那麼，您能否告訴我們，相對於第四季而言，您認為該部門的營收和利潤率將如何較上季成長？

Yeah. So obviously, normally, what you would see in CI is a first quarter benefit on sales and revenues, mainly due to dealer inventory builds. Last couple of years, that's been around about $1 billion. We expect that to be significantly less in the first quarter of this year.

是的。因此，顯然，通常情況下，您會在 CI 中看到第一季的銷售和收入收益，這主要歸功於經銷商庫存的增加。過去幾年，這一數字一直維持在 10 億美元左右。我們預計今年第一季這一數字將大幅下降。

Correspondingly, we've actually seen quite a significant dealer inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. That will be a little bit less [in the fourth quarter of 2025] (added by company after the call). So this is really just a nonoperating. Actually, as we look at underlying sales to users, they will be pretty much aligned throughout the whole of the year and will be down slightly for the full year. So that is the sort of underlying characteristics on the top line.

相應地，我們實際上看到第四季度經銷商庫存大幅減少。這會少一點[2025 年第四季]（公司在電話會議後新增）。所以這其實只是一個非經營性的。實際上，當我們查看面向用戶的基本銷售額時，我們會發現全年銷售額基本上保持一致，但全年銷售額會略有下降。這就是頂線的基本特徵。

The other overlay is really around price. Price will impact the first half. The impact on price, if you saw for CI in the fourth quarter was around $300 million. That will be the impact -- we estimate the impact on the first quarter.

另一個覆蓋因素實際上是價格。價格將對上半年產生影響。如果您看一下第四季度 CI 的價格影響，其金額約為 3 億美元。這就是影響——我們估計其對第一季的影響。

And obviously, as we go through the rest of the year and particularly in the second half, the comps become easier, and that will actually neutralize as we get into the second half. So it's overall just really a timing issue relating to dealer inventory mostly and the timing of price. When you take those two things out, effectively sales to users should actually be broadly much the same first half, second half. There is no demand change we're expecting as we go through the year.

顯然，隨著我們度過今年剩餘的時間，特別是下半年，比較會變得更容易，而當我們進入下半年時，這種情況實際上會中和。因此，總的來說，這實際上只是一個與經銷商庫存和價格時機相關的時間問題。當你把這兩件事去掉時，實際上上半年和下半年對用戶的有效銷售應該大致相同。我們預計今年的需求不會改變。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

So the order growth in the fourth quarter, I'm curious how did Construction and Resources orders do sequentially in the quarter versus the third quarter? It seems like E&T was strong, but would love any directional commentary on the other two segments, if you're able to provide?

那麼對於第四季的訂單成長，我很好奇建築和資源訂單在本季與第三季相比表現如何？看起來 E&T 很強大，但是如果您能夠提供的話，是否希望對其他兩個部分提供一些指導性評論？

Yeah. So Tami, overall, E&T was the major driver. We did see some improvement in orders in Resource Industries, particularly related to some large contracts that we've announced previously. And then [machines in total] was broadly flat for the quarter (company clarified after the call).

是的。因此，塔米，總體而言，E&T 是主要驅動力。我們確實看到資源產業的訂單有所改善，特別是與我們之前宣布的一些大合約有關的訂單。本季[機器總數]基本持平（公司在通話後澄清）。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Maybe, Andrew, just back to the -- you had mentioned within the commentary around CI, the issue of inventory absorption or the headwind from it. As you think about just Cat more broadly, should we -- in an environment where the top line is slightly lower, should we think about that as a headwind more broadly for Cat as a whole in '25, just given where inventory levels are for the company. Is that something we should be factoring in, in terms of that discussion around material costs? Or is it less of a headwind as you kind of think about the margin outlook?

也許，安德魯，回到你在有關 CI 的評論中提到的庫存吸收問題或由此產生的逆風問題。當您更廣泛地考慮 Cat 時，我們是否應該 - 在營業收入略低的環境下，考慮到公司的庫存水平，我們是否應該將其視為 Cat 整體在 25 年面臨的更大阻力。在討論材料成本時，我們應該考慮這一點嗎？或者，就利潤前景而言，這不算什麼阻力嗎？

Yeah, Tim, thanks. I think as I tried to indicate to David, there are other factors within manufacturing costs, which go the other way. Absorption will be one of them slightly going against, obviously, because our intention would be effectively to reduce volume next year, which will impact our rate of absorption and potentially inventory as well. Inventory is a little bit of a more difficult subject.

是的，提姆，謝謝。我認為，正如我試圖向大衛指出的那樣，製造成本中還有其他因素，它們會產生相反的影響。顯然，吸收將是其中略微不利的一點，因為我們的目的是有效地減少明年的產量，這將影響我們的吸收率，也可能影響庫存。庫存是一個比較困難的話題。

Just to remind you, we are a very large complex company. We have hundreds of products that we hold inventory for and not all of those products have exactly the same lead time.

只是提醒您，我們是一家非常龐大的複雜公司。我們有數百種庫存產品，但並非所有產品的交貨時間都完全相同。

And some of the longer lead time projects are where we have strongest at the moment, things like solar and also large engines. And so some of those may actually continue to build inventory where we may see some inventory trimming within CI, for example, with slightly lower volumes and also RI as we go through the year.

目前，我們最強的領域是一些週期較長的項目，例如太陽能和大型引擎。因此，其中一些實際上可能會繼續建立庫存，我們可能會看到 CI 中的一些庫存削減，例如，隨著一年的過去，庫存量和 RI 也會略有下降。

So it's going to be a little bit of a mixed bag, but there may be some impact on absorption. That was built into the fact that, obviously, we're going to see a favorability from material costs coming through manufacturing costs added to the depreciation I talked about a moment ago as well.

因此，這將是一個有點混合的情況，但可能會對吸收產生一些影響。這是因為，顯然，我們將看到材料成本、製造成本以及我剛才談到的折舊帶來的有利影響。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾·卡斯蒂略。

Just wanted to maybe go into the competitive environment a little bit more as you think about the first quarter, continuing to see some of the flow-through of the merchandise programs that you mentioned. I guess as we evolve into the second half, I get the comps getting easier.

當您考慮第一季時，只是想更多地了解競爭環境，繼續觀察您提到的一些商品計劃的流通情況。我想隨著我們進入下半場，比賽會變得越來越容易。

I guess maybe what gives you confidence though that the pricing and competitive environment doesn't worsen? And maybe if you could overlay on that, just any views on kind of Trump policies and implications on kind of construction activity in the US and whether -- how you kind of see that impacting demand overall?

我想也許是什麼讓您有信心相信定價和競爭環境不會惡化？也許您可以對此進行補充，您對川普的政策及其對美國建築活動的影響有何看法，以及您如何看待這對整體需求的影響？

Yeah. So on the merchandising programs, some of that is actually within our control. It's not just -- but obviously, our focus is actually growing absolute OPACC dollars, remind you. So we don't necessarily focus on margin per product.

是的。因此，就商品推銷計劃而言，其中一些實際上是在我們的控制範圍內的。這不僅僅是——但顯然，我們的重點實際上是增加絕對 OPACC 美元，提醒您。所以我們不一定關注每件產品的利潤。

But obviously, we'll take that into account and pricing takes into account the value we provide customers and a lot of other things. Obviously, this is relating to the price we're talking about is relating to the merchandising programs, and we don't expect those to change much from where we have them today.

但顯然，我們會考慮到這一點，定價會考慮我們為客戶提供的價值和許多其他因素。顯然，這與我們正在討論的價格有關，與商品銷售計劃有關，我們預計這些計劃與現在相比不會有太大變化。

And in fact, actually, in a lower interest rate environment, actually, they will become less of the total, so may actually be the opposite if interest rates do start to fall as we go through the year based on that being buying down of interest rates.

事實上，在較低利率環境下，它們在總量中所佔比例實際上會減少，因此，如果利率在一年中開始下降，情況實際上可能恰恰相反，因為這是降低利率。

Yeah. And just in terms of the administration, certainly, if the push for deregulation and other kinds of changes from a regulatory perspective helps increase economic growth, particularly in the United States, that should be a positive again, but we'll have to see how that all plays out, but that certainly has the potential to be positive for us.

是的。就政府而言，當然，如果推動放鬆管制和其他監管方面的變革有助於促進經濟成長，特別是在美國，這應該再次是一個積極因素，但我們必須看看這一切將如何發展，但這肯定有可能對我們產生積極影響。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

I wanted to come back to sort of the margin target guidance coming in at the upper half of the range. You did make some adjustments to that margin target when we were at the height of the supply chain dislocation.

我想回到利潤目標指導的上半部。當我們處於供應鏈混亂最嚴重的時候，您確實對利潤目標做了一些調整。

Just given the strong performance since then, the outlook, even inclusive of that negative price impact, I'm wondering how we should think about this range? Is it still valid? Or should we be actually thinking about an upward shift in that range over time?

鑑於自那時以來的強勁表現，前景，甚至包括負面價格影響，我想知道我們應該如何看待這個範圍？它還有效嗎？或者我們實際上是否應該考慮隨著時間的推移該範圍的向上移動？

Yeah. Again, as we think about 2025, we're talking about being in the top half of that range. And so certainly, for this year, we're not anticipating changing it. And again, just as a reminder, as I mentioned earlier, our driver here is really absolute OPACC dollars because that most closely we believe corresponds to increased TSR over time.

是的。再次，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們談論的是處於該範圍的上半部分。因此，今年我們當然不會改變它。再次提醒一下，正如我之前提到的，我們的驅動力實際上是絕對的 OPACC 美元，因為我們認為這與隨著時間的推移 TSR 的增加最為接近。

And so what we try to do is give investors that guide to give you a sense of where we'll be, and we make various investments to grow our business profitably. And for '25, we said we'd be in the top half of the range. And as we always do, a year from now, we'll reassess and let you know what we think for 2026.

因此，我們嘗試為投資者提供指導，讓他們了解我們的發展方向，並且我們會進行各種投資來提高業務的獲利能力。對於 25 年，我們說過我們會處於該範圍的上半部。正如我們一貫的做法，一年後，我們會重新評估並讓您知道我們對 2026 年的想法。

Yes. And Kristen, just the other point to always remember is our margin targets are very progressive at the top end of the range. [Gross] margins have to effectively [be up to extend] the top end of that target range, and well above our average gross margin for our products across the whole (added by company after the call).

是的。克莉絲汀，還有一點要永遠記住，我們的利潤率目標在最高端非常漸進。 [毛]利潤率必須有效地達到目標範圍的上限，並且遠高於我們所有產品的平均毛利率。（通話後由公司添加）。

So it does require a lot of operating leverage. So that is one of the reasons, again, why we took into account the fact that while performance has been strong, we're back in the range now, and we still think that actually is a valid range for us to work with.

因此它確實需要很大的經營槓桿。因此，這也是我們再次考慮到這一事實的原因之一：儘管業績一直很強勁，但現在我們又回到了原來的範圍內，我們仍然認為這實際上是我們可以合作的有效範圍。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

瑞銀的史蒂文·費雪。

I know it's still very early to really understand exactly all the policies coming out of the administration. But I wanted to ask a little bit about tariffs if it hasn't been asked already. And curious about how you're thinking about contingency plans and strategies for managing tariffs on the products that you import from China into the US.

我知道現在要真正了解政府所推出的所有政策還為時過早。但如果還沒有人問的話，我想問一下有關關稅的問題。我很好奇您是如何考慮應急計劃和策略來管理從中國進口到美國的產品的關稅的。

I know generally you have a strategy of producing for local, but I think there's maybe some products coming in from China. Just curious how you think about the contingency plans and strategies for that.

我知道你們通常有本地生產的策略，但我認為可能有一些產品來自中國。只是好奇您如何看待應急計劃和策略。

Yeah. I'll give that a shot. So certainly, it's going to take time to see how this plays out. Certainly, a lot of discussions going on around tariffs, and we'll have to see what actually gets put into place in the end. We are a global manufacturer, but our largest manufacturing presence is in the United States, and we are a net exporter outside of the US, and that positions us pretty well versus many other companies out there.

是的。我會嘗試一下。所以當然，我們需要時間來觀察事情會如何發展。當然，圍繞關稅問題有很多討論，我們必須看看最終會採取什麼措施。我們是一家全球製造商，但我們最大的製造基地在美國，而且我們是美國以外的淨出口國，這使我們與許多其他公司相比具有相當好的優勢。

Having said that, as you say, we do tend to try to produce in region for region. But yes, some products and components particularly move around. But as you can imagine, something we keep a close eye on, and we'll deal with it. We've been around 100 years, and we've seen many different administrations with different attitudes on these issues, and we'll deal with it.

話雖如此，正如您所說，我們確實傾向於嘗試在特定區域內進行生產。但是，有些產品和組件確實會移動。但正如你所想像的，我們會密切注意某些事情，並會處理它。我們已經存在了大約 100 年，我們看到許多不同的政府對這些問題採取不同的態度，我們會處理這個問題。

But again, the fact that we have such a large US manufacturing presence, I think, positions us pretty well.

但我認為，事實上我們在美國擁有如此龐大的製造業影響力，這讓我們處於相當有利的地位。

Audra, we have time for one more question.

奧德拉，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Kyle Menges, Citi.

花旗銀行的凱爾孟格斯 (Kyle Menges)。

I was hoping if you could provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing in RI. Just you talked about some order improvement in 4Q. Just how are customer conversations progressing in orders so far in 1Q? And maybe just talk a little bit about some of the pricing actions you're taking in RI. I think you said it would be negative in 1Q. So I would just love to hear some color on those items.

我希望您能提供更多關於您在羅德島州所看到的情況的資訊。您剛才談到第四季訂單有所改善。到目前為止，第一季的客戶對話在訂單方面進展如何？也許您可以稍微談談您在 RI 採取的一些定價措施。我認為您說過第一季會出現負成長。所以我很想聽聽這些事情的一些細節。

Yeah. Certainly, as I mentioned earlier, our customers continue to display capital discipline, but we are encouraged by the fact that the key commodities that our products help our customers produce remain above investment thresholds and kind of some of the things we look at to get a gauge of what's happening in the industry.

是的。當然，正如我之前提到的，我們的客戶繼續表現出資本紀律，但我們感到鼓舞的是，我們的產品幫助客戶生產的關鍵商品仍然高於投資門檻，而且我們透過觀察一些情況來了解產業動態。

We look at product utilization, how the hours that are being put in our machines and those are high. The number of parked trucks is relatively low. And the age of the fleet is relatively elevated as well. And again, we're continuing to invest in our autonomous solutions, and we continue to see strong customer acceptance of that.

我們關注產品利用率，關注機器的使用時間，這些時間很長。停放的卡車數量相對較少。而且船隊的年齡也相對較高。再次強調，我們將繼續投資於我們的自主解決方案，並且我們繼續看到客戶對此的強烈接受。

You stop and think about some of the things that are happening when we talk about data center build-outs and all the rest. I mean, again, you think about commodities like copper, that should be a positive for that over time. Having said that, again, our customers are displaying capital discipline in terms of price.

當我們談論資料中心建設和其他所有事情時，你會停下來思考正在發生的一些事情。我的意思是，再說一次，想想銅這樣的商品，從長遠來看，這應該會產生正面的影響。話雖如此，我們的客戶在價格方面再次展現了資本紀律。

Price, we do expect some marginally negative impacts in the first quarter, as we said, and that would be mostly due to the fact that, obviously, we are also putting merchandising programs, particularly where we think about things like heavy construction, quarry and aggregates are the major areas that will be affected there.

價格，正如我們所說的，我們確實預計第一季度會出現一些輕微的負面影響，這主要是因為我們顯然也在實施商品推銷計劃，特別是我們認為重型建築、採石場和骨料等主要受影響的領域。

Okay. Great. Well, I just want to thank everyone again for joining us. We always appreciate your questions. I'd like to once again thank our team for their strong performance in 2024, delivering record adjusted profit per share and strong ME&T free cash flow.

好的。偉大的。好吧，我只想再次感謝大家的加入我們。我們始終感謝您的提問。我想再次感謝我們的團隊在 2024 年的出色表現，實現了創紀錄的每股調整利潤和強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流。

We've been around 100 years. And so as we kick off our centennial year this year, we certainly remain committed to serving our customers. We'll continue to execute our strategy and invest for long-term profitable growth. And with that, I'll turn it over to Alex.

我們已經存在大約100年了。因此，當我們今年迎來百年慶典時，我們當然會繼續致力於為客戶服務。我們將繼續執行我們的策略並投資於長期獲利成長。說完這些，我就把麥克風交給亞歷克斯。

Thank you, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll also find a fourth quarter results video with our CFO and the SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view those materials.

謝謝吉姆、安德魯以及今天加入我們的所有人。我們的通話重播將於今天上午晚些時候在網上提供。一旦發布，我們也會在我們的投資者關係網站上發布一份記錄。您還將看到我們的財務長介紹第四季度業績的影片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的有關用戶銷售數據的文件。點擊 investors.caterpillar.com，然後點擊「財務」即可查看這些資料。

Finally, I'd like to thank Ryan for his support through our transition, and I wish him the best as he moves on to another role in Caterpillar. If you have any questions, please reach out to me or Rob Rengel. Investor Relations general phone number is 309 675-4549.

最後，我要感謝 Ryan 在我們過渡期間給予的支持，並祝他在卡特彼勒擔任其他職務時一切順利。如果您有任何疑問，請聯絡我或 Rob Rengel。投資者關係總機號碼為 309 675-4549。

Now let's turn it back to Audra to conclude our call.

現在讓我們把話題轉回奧德拉來結束我們的通話。

That concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may all disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。你們都可以斷開連線。