開拓重工 (CAT) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the second quarter 2025 Caterpillar earnings conference call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Alex Kapper. Thank you. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人亞歷克斯·卡珀 (Alex Kapper)。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you, Adria. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's second quarter of 2025 earnings call. I'm Alex Kapper, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Joe Creed, Chief Executive Officer; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，阿德里亞。大家早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁 Alex Kapper。今天與我一起出席的還有執行長喬·克里德 (Joe Creed)、財務長安德魯·邦菲爾德 (Andrew Bonfield)、全球金融服務部高級副總裁凱爾·埃普利 (Kyle Epley) 和投資者關係高級總監羅布·倫格爾 (Rob Rengel)。

During our call, we'll be discussing the second quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast replay at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations. The content of this call is protected by US and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction, or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited.

在電話會議中，我們將討論今天稍早發布的第二季財報。您可以在 investors.caterpillar.com 的「活動和簡報」下找到我們的幻燈片、新聞稿和網路直播重播。本次通話內容受美國及國際版權法保護。未經卡特彼勒事先書面許可，禁止重新廣播、重新傳輸、複製或散佈該內容的全部或部分。

Moving to slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually, or in aggregate, could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings.

移至投影片 2。在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響。我們也會做出一些假設，這可能會導致我們的實際結果與我們在本次電話會議上與您分享的資訊不同。請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明提醒，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與預測有重大差異的因素的詳細資訊。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細討論了我們認為可能持續對我們的業務產生重大影響的許多因素。

On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate US GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides.

在今天的電話會議上，我們也將參考非公認會計準則資料。有關非 GAAP 數字與相應的美國 GAAP 數字的對賬，請參閱收益電話會議幻燈片的附錄。

Now let's advance to slide 3 and turn the call over to our CEO, Joe Creed.

現在讓我們進入投影片 3，並將電話交給我們的執行長喬·克里德 (Joe Creed)。

Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. The Caterpillar team demonstrated solid operational performance in a fluid environment this quarter. Sales were in line with our expectations, and we delivered adjusted operating profit, and adjusted operating profit margin above our expectations. We continue to see strong orders across our segments as demand remains resilient supported by infrastructure spending and growing energy needs. As a result, backlog grew by $2.5 billion with increases across all three primary segments.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。本季度，卡特彼勒團隊在動盪的環境中展現了穩健的營運表現。銷售額符合我們的預期，我們實現了調整後的營業利潤，調整後的營業利潤率高於我們的預期。由於基礎設施支出和不斷增長的能源需求支撐需求保持強勁，我們各部門的訂單持續保持強勁。結果，積壓訂單增加了 25 億美元，三個主要部門都有增加。

Our strong ME&T free cash flow allowed us to deploy about $1.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends during the quarter. As you know, the environment continues to be dynamic, the net impact of tariffs was around the top end of our estimated range for the quarter and is likely to be a more significant headwind to profitability in the second half of 2025. We'll provide more details in a moment. I'll start with my perspectives about this quarter's performance, then I'll discuss our outlook along with insights about our end markets. And then finally, Andrew will provide a detailed overview of results and key assumptions, including the net impact of incremental tariffs looking forward.

我們強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流使我們能夠在本季透過股票回購和股息向股東部署約 15 億美元。如您所知，環境持續動態，關稅的淨影響處於我們本季度估計範圍的上限附近，並且可能對 2025 年下半年的盈利能力造成更大的阻力。我們稍後會提供更多詳細資訊。我將首先介紹我對本季業績的看法，然後討論我們的展望以及對終端市場的見解。最後，安德魯將詳細概述結果和關鍵假設，包括未來增量關稅的淨影響。

Turning to slide 4. Sales and revenues were down 1% versus last year. The decrease was primarily due to unfavorable price realization, partially offset by higher sales volume and higher financial products revenues. Second quarter adjusted operating profit margin was 17.6%. Although the net impact from incremental tariffs is around the top end of our estimated range, lower-than-expected manufacturing costs resulted in adjusted operating profit margin above our expectations. We achieved quarterly adjusted profit per share of $4.72.

翻到幻燈片 4。銷售額和收入與去年相比下降了 1%。下降的主要原因是價格實現不利，但被銷售量增加和金融產品收入增加部分抵消。第二季調整後的營業利益率為17.6%。儘管增量關稅的淨影響處於我們估計範圍的高端，但低於預期的製造成本導致調整後的營業利潤率高於我們的預期。我們實現季度調整後每股獲利 4.72 美元。

Compared to the second quarter of 2024, machine sales to users were about flat. Energy & Transportation continued to grow as sales to users increased 9%, driven primarily by power generation and industrial applications. For Construction Industries, sales to users were up 2% year over year, in line with our expectations.

與 2024 年第二季相比，機器對使用者的銷售量基本上持平。能源與交通運輸持續成長，用戶銷售成長 9%，主要受發電和工業應用的推動。對於建築業，用戶銷售額年增 2%，符合我們的預期。

In North America, sales seasons were 3% higher than the prior year and better than we anticipated due to growth in both residential and nonresidential construction, partially offset by lower rental fleet loading. However, despite lower rental fleet loading, dealers' rental revenue continued to grow in the quarter. Sales to users increased in EAME primarily due to growth in Africa and the Middle East.

在北美，銷售旺季比去年高出 3%，並且好於我們的預期，這得益於住宅和非住宅建築的成長，但租賃車隊負載的下降部分抵消了這一增長。然而，儘管租賃車隊負載下降，經銷商的租賃收入在本季仍持續成長。東非和非洲地區用戶銷售額的成長主要得益於非洲和中東地區的成長。

However, overall growth in EAME was below our expectations due to weakness in Europe. In Asia Pacific, sales users declined slightly. Although China was about flat versus the prior year, the second quarter was below our expectations due to lower activity following a stronger-than-expected first quarter. Sales to users in Latin America declined but were slightly better than we anticipated.

然而，由於歐洲經濟疲軟，歐洲、非洲和中東地區的整體成長低於我們的預期。在亞太地區，銷售用戶略有下降。儘管中國經濟與去年同期基本持平，但第二季的表現低於我們的預期，因為第一季的經濟活動強於預期，而第二季的經濟活動則有所減少。對拉丁美洲用戶的銷售額有所下降，但略好於我們的預期。

In Resource Industries, sales users declined 3%, which was in line with our expectations. While mining was slightly worse, primarily due to the timing of off-highway truck deliveries, sales to users in heavy construction, and quarry and aggregates were slightly better than we anticipated.

在資源產業，銷售用戶下降了 3%，符合我們的預期。雖然採礦業的表現略差，主要是由於非公路卡車交付的時間安排，但對重型建築、採石場和骨料用戶的銷售情況略好於我們的預期。

In Energy & Transportation sales to users increased by 9%. Power generation grew by 19%, primarily due to demand for reciprocating engines for data center applications. Turbines and turbine-related services for power generation were down slightly due to timing. Oil and gas sales users increased overall with the increase in turbines and turbine-related services partially offset by a decrease in reciprocating engines due to the timing in gas compression. Industrial sales to users grew from a relatively low level and were driven by sales into electric power applications. Transportation decreased due to lower marine sales to users, and the timing of international locomotive deliveries.

能源與運輸領域的用戶銷售額成長了 9%。發電量增加了 19%，主要原因是資料中心應用對往復式引擎的需求。由於時間原因，渦輪機和渦輪機相關發電服務略有下降。石油和天然氣銷售用戶整體增加，渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務的增加部分被往復式發動機因氣體壓縮時間而減少所抵消。工業用戶銷售額從相對較低的水平開始成長，並受到電力應用銷售的推動。由於海運銷量下降以及國際機車交付時間的縮短，導致運輸量下降。

Moving to dealer inventory and our backlog. In total, dealer inventory increased by approximately $100 million versus the first quarter of 2025. Machine dealer inventory was down approximately $400 million, in line with our expectations. As I mentioned, backlog increased sequentially by $2.5 billion, driven by strong order rates in all three of our primary segments. Our backlog is at a record level of $37.5 billion.

轉移到經銷商庫存和我們的積壓訂單。總體而言，經銷商庫存與 2025 年第一季相比增加了約 1 億美元。機械經銷商庫存下降了約 4 億美元，符合我們的預期。正如我所提到的，由於我們三個主要部門的訂單率強勁，積壓訂單環比增加了 25 億美元。我們的積壓訂單已達到創紀錄的 375 億美元。

Moving to slide 5. I'll now discuss our outlook. Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, I'm increasingly optimistic about the top line expectations. I'm pleased with another quarter of increased ordering activity and backlog growth, continued sales to users growth in Construction Industries, and strong demand in power generation. However, as I mentioned, the incremental tariffs announced in 2025 and expected to be in place by August 7, will be a headwind to profitability during the remainder of the year.

移至投影片 5。我現在將討論我們的前景。展望 2025 年下半年，我對營收預期越來越樂觀。我很高興看到本季訂單活動和積壓訂單量增加、建築業用戶銷售額持續成長以及發電需求強勁。然而，正如我所提到的，2025 年宣布的增量關稅預計將於 8 月 7 日實施，這將對今年剩餘時間的獲利能力造成不利影響。

While we have taken initial mitigating actions to reduce the impact, tariff and trade negotiations continue to be fluid. We will remain flexible and we intend to implement longer-term actions once there are sufficient certainty. We are considering all options to further reduce the impact of tariffs going forward.

雖然我們已採取初步緩解措施來減少影響，但關稅和貿易談判仍不確定。我們將保持靈活性，一旦有足夠的確定性，我們打算實施更長期的行動。我們正在考慮所有選擇，以進一步減少關稅的影響。

For the third quarter, we anticipate sales to grow moderately versus the prior year. Sales growth is expected to be driven by higher volumes in all three segments. Excluding the impact of incremental tariffs, third quarter adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be similar to the prior year. Including net impact from incremental tariffs, we expect third quarter enterprise adjusted operating profit margin to be lower versus the prior year.

對於第三季度，我們預計銷售額將比上年同期溫和成長。預計銷售額的成長將受到三個部門銷售增加的推動。不計增量關稅的影響，第三季調整後的營業利潤率預計將與去年同期持平。包括增量關稅的淨影響，我們預期第三季企業調整後的營業利潤率將低於上年。

Given the strength of our record backlog, we expect full year 2025 sales and revenues to increase slightly versus 2024. This represents an improvement since our outlook last quarter, and our full year outlook from the beginning of the year. Full year services revenues are expected to be about flat versus 2024. This is slightly lower than our previous expectations due to lower-than-anticipated machine rebuild activity throughout the year.

鑑於我們創紀錄的積壓訂單的強勁表現，我們預計 2025 年全年銷售額和收入將較 2024 年略有增長。這表明，自上個季度以來，我們的前景有所改善，而自今年年初以來，我們的全年前景也有所改善。預計全年服務收入將與 2024 年持平。由於全年機器重建活動低於預期，這略低於我們先前的預期。

Excluding the impact of incremental tariffs, full year adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be in the top half of our target margin range. Including the net impact from incremental tariffs we expect full year adjusted operating profit margin to be in the bottom half of the target margin range. This estimate includes the initial mitigating actions already implemented and currently planned throughout the rest of the year. We also expect ME&T free cash flow to be around the middle of the $5 billion to $10 billion target range. Andrew will provide more details on key assumptions for the third quarter and full year in a moment.

排除增量關稅的影響，預計全年調整後的營業利潤率將處於我們目標利潤率範圍的上半部。包括增量關稅的淨影響，我們預計全年調整後的營業利潤率將處於目標利潤率範圍的下半部分。這項估計包括已經實施並計劃在今年剩餘時間內採取的初步緩解措施。我們也預計 ME&T 自由現金流將處於 50 億美元至 100 億美元目標範圍的中間位置。安德魯稍後將提供有關第三季度和全年關鍵假設的更多細節。

To further support our sales outlook, I'll now share the latest view of our end markets. Starting with Construction Industries. As I mentioned earlier, we're encouraged by another quarter of sales to users growth, strong order rates across many of our regions and backlog growth. Customers continue to be responsive to the attractive rates we're offering through Cat Financial. And as a result, we anticipate full year growth in Construction Industries sales to users despite softness in the global industry.

為了進一步支持我們的銷售前景，我現在將分享我們終端市場的最新觀點。從建築業開始。正如我之前提到的，我們對另一個季度的銷售成長、許多地區的訂單率強勁以及積壓訂單的成長感到鼓舞。客戶對我們透過 Cat Financial 提供的優惠利率持續響應。因此，儘管全球建築業表現疲軟，我們預計全年建築業對使用者的銷售額仍將成長。

In North America, overall construction spending remains at healthy levels and infrastructure projects funded by the IIJA continue to be awarded. We now expect full year growth for sales to users, which is an improvement from the outlook we provided in January. Full year dealer rental revenues are also expected to grow as dealer rental fleet loading is expected to increase in the second half of the year.

在北美，整體建築支出仍處於健康水平，由IIJA資助的基礎設施項目繼續獲得授予。我們現在預計全年用戶銷售額將實現成長，這比我們一月份給出的預測有所改善。由於下半年經銷商租賃車隊裝載量預計會增加，因此全年經銷商租賃收入也有望成長。

In Asia Pacific, we anticipate full year sales to users growth. China has shown positive momentum to start the year, and we expect full year growth in the -- in the above 10-ton excavator industry, but from a very low level of activity. In Asia Pacific outside of China, we expect economic conditions to be soft.

在亞太地區，我們預計全年銷售額將實現成長。中國今年開局表現積極，我們預計 10 噸以上挖土機產業將全年成長，但活躍程度仍很低。我們預計，中國以外的亞太地區經濟狀況將會疲軟。

In EAME, we expect moderate sales to users growth for the year driven by healthy construction activity in Africa and the Middle East and improving economic conditions in Europe. Despite weaker construction activity in Latin America, we expect sales to users growth for the year.

在歐洲、非洲和中東地區，我們預計今年用戶銷售額將溫和成長，這得益於非洲和中東地區健康的建築活動以及歐洲經濟狀況的改善。儘管拉丁美洲的建築活動較弱，但我們預計今年的用戶銷售額將會成長。

Moving to Resource Industries. We currently anticipate lower sales to users in 2025 compared to last year as customers continue to display capital discipline. However, we see positive momentum with strong order rates and backlog growth, particularly for large mining and articulated trucks. Although most key commodities remain above investment thresholds, declining coal prices have caused an increase in the number of park trucks. As a result, we expect slightly lower rebuild activity throughout the second half of the year.

轉向資源產業。由於客戶持續表現出資本紀律，我們目前預計 2025 年的用戶銷售額將比去年下降。然而，我們看到了積極的勢頭，訂單率強勁，積壓訂單增長，特別是大型採礦卡車和鉸接式卡車。儘管大多數主要商品的價格仍高於投資門檻，但煤炭價格的下跌導致停車卡車數量增加。因此，我們預計今年下半年重建活動將略有下降。

Overall, customer product utilization remains high and the age of the fleet remains elevated. We also continue to see growing demand and customer acceptance of our autonomous solutions. We believe the evolving energy landscape will support increased commodity demand over time, providing further opportunities for long-term profitable growth.

整體而言，客戶產品利用率仍然很高，車隊使用年資仍然較高。我們也看到客戶對我們的自主解決方案的需求和接受度不斷增長。我們相信，不斷發展的能源格局將支持大宗商品需求的不斷增長，為長期盈利增長提供更多機會。

And finally, in Energy & Transportation. The backlog growth was driven by robust order activity in power generation, oil and gas, and transportation. We expect full year growth for power generation as demand remains strong for both prime and backup power applications driven by increasing energy demands to support data center growth, related to cloud computing and generative AI. We continue to stay close to our largest data center customers and receive regular feedback on their long-term demand.

最後是能源和運輸領域。積壓訂單的成長是由發電、石油天然氣和運輸領域強勁的訂單活動所推動的。我們預計全年發電量將實現成長，因為受支援與雲端運算和生成式人工智慧相關的資料中心成長的能源需求不斷增長的推動，主要電源和備用電源應用的需求仍然強勁。我們繼續與我們最大的資料中心客戶保持密切聯繫，並定期收到有關他們長期需求的回饋。

In oil and gas, we expect moderate growth in 2025. For reciprocating engines and services, we continue to expect softness in well servicing due to ongoing capital discipline by our customers, industry consolidation and efficiency improvements in our customers' operations. We do see positive momentum in demand for reciprocating engines used in gas compression applications.

我們預計石油和天然氣領域將在 2025 年溫和成長。對於往復式發動機和服務，由於客戶持續的資本約束、行業整合以及客戶營運效率的提高，我們預計油井服務將繼續疲軟。我們確實看到用於氣體壓縮應用的往復式引擎的需求呈現積極勢頭。

Solar turbines oil and gas backlog remains strong, and we see healthy order and inquiry activity. With our investment to increase large engine capacity in process, we're continuously improving manufacturing throughput to meet customer needs across a broad range of applications. Demand for products and industrial applications is expected to improve from previous lows and transportation is expected to remain stable.

太陽能渦輪機的石油和天然氣積壓訂單仍然強勁，我們看到了健康的訂單和詢問活動。透過投資增加大型引擎的產能，我們持續提高製造產量，以滿足廣泛應用領域的客戶需求。預計產品和工業應用的需求將從先前的低點回升，運輸預計將保持穩定。

Before turning the call over to Andrew, I want to briefly reflect as I approach my first 100 days as CEO. I'm optimistic and excited about the possibilities ahead. As I visit with customers, employees, dealers and investors around the world, I'm proud to see our global impact, the Caterpillar team's relentless commitment to customer success.

在將電話轉給安德魯之前，我想簡單回顧一下我擔任執行長的第一個 100 天。我對未來的可能性感到樂觀和興奮。當我拜訪世界各地的客戶、員工、經銷商和投資者時，我很自豪地看到我們的全球影響力以及卡特彼勒團隊對客戶成功的不懈承諾。

I'm also pleased that Christy Pambianchi joined the executive office on May 1, as Chief Human Resources Officer to focus on recruiting and developing the best talent to deliver our strategy for long-term profitable growth. I look forward to sharing more about our strategic priorities and the incredible growth opportunities that lie ahead during our upcoming Investor Day in November.

我也很高興克里斯蒂·潘比亞奇 (Christy Pambianchi) 於 5 月 1 日加入執行辦公室，擔任首席人力資源官，專注於招募和培養最優秀的人才，以實現我們的長期盈利增長戰略。我期待在即將到來的十一月投資者日上分享更多我們的策略重點和未來令人難以置信的成長機會。

Now I'll turn it over to Andrew for a detailed overview of results and key assumptions looking forward.

現在，我將把問題交給安德魯，讓他詳細概述未來的結果和關鍵假設。

Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with a summary of the second quarter and then provide more detailed comments, including some on the performance of the segments. Next, I'll discuss the balance sheet and free cash flow before concluding with comments on our current assumptions for the remainder of the year, and in particular, the third quarter.

謝謝你，喬，大家早安。我將首先總結第二季的情況，然後提供更詳細的評論，包括一些關於各部門表現的評論。接下來，我將討論資產負債表和自由現金流，然後總結我們對今年剩餘時間，特別是第三季的當前假設的評論。

Beginning on slide 6. Sales and revenues were $16.6 billion, a 1% decrease versus the prior year. This was in line with our expectations. Adjusted operating profit was $2.9 billion, and our adjusted operating profit margin was 17.6%. Both were better than we expected. Profit per share was $4.62 in the second quarter, compared to $5.48 in the second quarter of last year. Adjusted profit per share was $4.72 in the quarter, compared to $5.99 last year. Adjusted profit per share excluded restructuring costs of $0.10 in the quarter.

從第 6 張投影片開始。銷售額和收入為 166 億美元，比上年下降 1%。這符合我們的預期。調整後的營業利潤為 29 億美元，調整後的營業利益率為 17.6%。兩者都比我們預期的要好。第二季每股獲利為 4.62 美元，去年同期每股獲利為 5.48 美元。本季調整後每股利潤為 4.72 美元，去年同期為 5.99 美元。本季度調整後每股利潤不包括 0.10 美元的重組成本。

Other income and expense was unfavorable by $71 million versus the prior year, primarily driven by an unfavorable foreign currency impact of $122 million from ME&T balance sheet translation in the quarter, compared to a favorable impact of $20 million last year. Excluding discrete items, the estimated annual effect of global tax rate was 23.0%. The year over year impact from the reduction in the average number of shares outstanding primarily due to share repurchases, resulted in a favorable impact on adjusted profit per share of approximately $0.17.

其他收入和支出較上年同期減少 7,100 萬美元，主要原因是本季 ME&T 資產負債表折算產生了 1.22 億美元的不利外匯影響，而去年同期的有利影響為 2,000 萬美元。不包括離散項目，全球稅率的預計年效應為23.0%。主要由於股票回購導致流通股平均數減少，對調整後每股盈餘產生了約 0.17 美元的有利影響。

Moving to slide 7. I'll discuss our top line results for the second quarter. Sales and revenues decreased by 1% compared to the prior year, primarily due to unfavorable price realization, which was partially offset by higher sales volume and financial products revenue growth. As I mentioned, sales were in line with our expectations.

移至幻燈片 7。我將討論我們第二季的營收業績。銷售額和收入與前一年相比下降了 1％，主要原因是價格實現不利，但銷售量增加和金融產品收入成長部分抵消了這一影響。正如我所提到的，銷售額符合我們的預期。

Moving to operating profit on slide 8. Operating profit in the second quarter decreased by 18% to $2.9 billion. Adjusted operating profit decreased by 22% versus the prior year to $2.9 billion, mainly due to unfavorable manufacturing costs that largely reflected the impact of higher tariffs, and the impact of comparable price. Deferred compensation expense also negatively impacted operating profit in the quarter due to strength in the equity markets. This is an item we do not forecast as it is offset by the total return swaps, which we'll report as income in other income and expense.

轉到第 8 張投影片上的營業利潤。第二季營業利潤下降18%至29億美元。調整後營業利潤較上年下降 22% 至 29 億美元，主要原因是製造成本不利（很大程度上反映了關稅上調的影響）以及可比較價格的影響。由於股票市場的強勁表現，遞延薪酬費用也對本季的營業利潤產生了負面影響。我們沒有預測到這個項目，因為它被總回報掉期所抵消，我們將把它作為其他收入和支出中的收入報告。

The adjusted operating profit margin was 17.6%, a decrease of 480 basis points compared to the prior year. Margins exceeded our expectations primarily due to favorable manufacturing costs driven by cost absorption. As Joe mentioned, the net incremental impact from tariffs was around the top end of our estimated $250 million to $350 million range for the quarter. With the decrease in certain tariff rates during the quarter, we lifted some holds on inbound shipments, such that the high inbound shipment volumes more than offset the lower tariff rates.

調整後的營業利益率為17.6%，較前一年下降480個基點。利潤率超出我們的預期，主要是由於成本吸收推動的有利的製造成本。正如喬所提到的，關稅的淨增量影響在本季約為 2.5 億至 3.5 億美元範圍內的高端。隨著本季某些關稅稅率的下降，我們取消了入境貨物的一些限制，因此較高的入境貨物量足以抵消較低的關稅稅率。

Tariffs impacted all three primary segments, and part of the charge was not allocated to the segments recorded in corporate items. Also, please keep in mind the impact is net of mitigating actions in the quarter, which were of the no regrets type, mainly short-term actions around cost controls.

關稅影響了所有三個主要部門，部分費用未分配給公司專案中記錄的部門。另外，請記住，影響是扣除本季緩解措施後的結果，這些措施屬於無悔類型，主要是圍繞成本控制的短期行動。

Moving to slide 9. I'll review the performance of the segments. Starting with Construction Industries, sales decreased by 7% in the second quarter to $6.2 billion, primarily due to unfavorable price realization. Sales were about in line with our expectations as favorable currency impacts roughly offset unfavorable price realization. Despite sales to users growth, volumes are slightly negative due to a dealer inventory headwind.

移至幻燈片 9。我將回顧各個部分的表現。從建築業開始，第二季銷售額下降 7% 至 62 億美元，主要原因是價格實現不利。由於有利的貨幣影響大致抵消了不利的價格實現，銷售額基本上符合我們的預期。儘管用戶銷售額有所成長，但由於經銷商庫存不足，銷量略有下降。

Price was more unfavorable than we had anticipated as our attractive merchandising programs stimulated higher-than-expected sales to users in North America. By region, construction industry sales in North America decreased by 15% versus the prior year. In Latin America, sales decreased by 20%. Sales in the EAME region increased by 13%. In Asia Pacific, sales increased by 6%.

由於我們有吸引力的商品推銷計劃刺激了北美用戶的銷售量高於預期，因此價格比我們預期的更為不利。按地區劃分，北美建築業銷售額較上年下降15%。在拉丁美洲，銷售額下降了20%。東非和非洲地區的銷售額成長了 13%。在亞太地區，銷售額成長了6%。

Second quarter profit for Construction Industries was $1.2 billion, a 29% decrease versus the prior year. The segment margin of 20.1% was a decrease of 600 basis points versus the prior year. The decrease was mainly due to unfavorable price realization. In addition, the net impact of incremental tariffs in Construction Industries had a negative impact of around 170 basis points. Excluding this impact from tariffs, the margin was slightly lower than we had anticipated primarily due to the headwind from price realization, which I mentioned a moment ago.

建築業第二季獲利為 12 億美元，較前一年下降 29%。該部門利潤率為 20.1%，較前一年下降 600 個基點。下降主要是由於價格實現不利。此外，建築業增量關稅的淨影響產生了約170個基點的負面影響。排除關稅的影響，利潤率略低於我們的預期，這主要是由於我剛才提到的價格實現的阻力。

Turning to slide 10. Resource Industry sales decreased by 4% in the second quarter to $3.1 billion. Sales were about in line with our expectations. The 4% sales decrease was primarily due to unfavorable price realization. Second quarter profit for Resource Industries decreased by 25% versus the prior year to $537 million. The segment's margin of 17.4% was a decrease of 500 basis points versus the prior year. This was mainly due to unfavorable price realization, the net impact of incremental tariffs, and the profit impact of lower sales volume, including unfavorable product mix.

翻到第 10 張投影片。資源產業銷售額第二季下降 4% 至 31 億美元。銷售額大致符合我們的預期。銷售額下降 4% 主要是由於價格實現不利。資源工業公司第二季利潤較上年同期下降 25% 至 5.37 億美元。該部門的利潤率為 17.4%，比前一年下降了 500 個基點。這主要是由於價格實現不利、增量關稅的淨影響以及銷售量下降（包括不利的產品組合）對利潤的影響。

The net impact of incremental tariffs in Resource Industries was approximately 230 basis points. Excluding this impact from tariffs, the margin was slightly higher than we had anticipated due to favorable manufacturing costs, including freight and material.

資源產業增量關稅的淨影響約為230個基點。排除關稅的影響，由於運費和材料等製造成本有利，利潤率略高於我們的預期。

Now on slide 11. Energy & Transportation sales of $7.8 billion, increased by 7% versus the prior year. Sales were in line with our expectations. The sales increase versus the prior year was mainly due to higher sales volume and favorable price realization. By application, power generation sales increased by 28%. Oil and gas sales increased by 2%. Industrial sales increased by 1%, and transportation sales were lower by 7%.

現在看投影片 11。能源與交通運輸銷售額為 78 億美元，較上年成長 7%。銷售額符合我們的預期。銷售額較上年同期增加主要是因為銷售量增加和價格優惠。按應用劃分，發電量銷售額增加了28%。石油和天然氣銷售額增加了2%。工業銷售額成長了1%，運輸銷售額下降了7%。

Second quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 4% versus the prior year to $1.6 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price realization and the profit impact of higher sales volume, partially offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs, largely due to tariffs. The segment's margin of 20.2% was a decrease of 60 basis points versus the prior year. The net impact of incremental tariffs in Energy & Transportation was approximately 110 basis points. Excluding this impact from tariffs, the margin was slightly higher than we had anticipated due to favorable price realization and manufacturing costs.

能源與運輸部門第二季獲利較上年同期成長 4%，達 16 億美元。成長主要歸因於有利的價格實現和銷售量增加對利潤的影響，但主要由於關稅導致的不利的製造成本部分抵消了這一增長。該部門的利潤率為 20.2%，比前一年下降了 60 個基點。能源和運輸領域增量關稅的淨影響約為 110 個基點。排除關稅的影響，由於有利的價格實現和製造成本，利潤率略高於我們的預期。

Moving to slide 12. Financial Products revenues were approximately $1.0 billion in the quarter, a 4% increase versus the prior year, primarily due to a favorable impact from higher average earning assets in North America. These were partially offset by an unfavorable impact from lower average financing rates mainly in North America.

移至投影片 12。本季金融產品營收約 10 億美元，較上年成長 4%，主要因北美平均收益資產增加的有利影響。但主要由於北美地區平均融資利率較低而產生的不利影響部分抵銷了這一影響。

Segment profit increased by 9% to $248 million. The increase was mainly due to a favorable impact from equity securities, and a favorable impact from higher average earning assets, partially offset by higher provisions for credit losses and an unfavorable impact from lower net yield on average earning assets. The increase in the provision primarily reflected the absence of a nonrecurring reserve release, which was a benefit in the prior year.

分部利潤成長9%至2.48億美元。成長主要由於股權證券的有利影響，以及平均收益資產增加的有利影響，但被信貸損失準備金增加和平均收益資產淨收益率下降的不利影響部分抵消。撥備增加主要反映非經常性儲備金釋放的缺失，而這在前一年是一項福利。

Our customers' financial health remains strong. Past dues were 1.62% in the quarter, down 12 basis points versus the prior year. This is the lowest second quarter in over 25 years. The allowance rate was 0.94%, remaining near historic lows. Business activity at Cat Financial remains healthy. Retail credit applications and retail new business volume both grew by 5% versus the prior year. Retail new business volume is at its highest level for a second quarter in over 10 years, reflecting the attractiveness of our sales merchandising programs. In addition, used equipment inventory levels remain low and conversion rates remain above historical averages, as customers choose to buy equipment at the end of their lease term.

我們客戶的財務狀況依然強勁。本季逾期率為 1.62%，較前一年下降 12 個基點。這是25年來第二季最低的水準。撥備率為0.94%，仍接近歷史低點。Cat Financial 的業務活動依然健康。零售信貸申請量和零售新業務量均較上年增加5%。零售新業務量第二季達到十多年來的最高水平，反映了我們的銷售商品計劃的吸引力。此外，由於客戶選擇在租賃期結束時購買設備，二手設備庫存水準仍然很低，轉換率仍然高於歷史平均水準。

Moving on to slide 13. ME&T free cash flow was about $2.4 billion in the second quarter approximately $100 million lower than the prior year, a stronger operating cash was more than offset by higher CapEx spend. We continue to anticipate CapEx spend of around $2.5 billion for the year.

移至幻燈片 13。ME&T 第二季度的自由現金流約為 24 億美元，比上年低約 1 億美元，強勁的營運現金流被更高的資本支出所抵消。我們繼續預期今年的資本支出約為 25 億美元。

Moving to capital deployment. We deployed about $1.5 billion to shareholders in the second quarter. Share repurchase spend accounted for about $800 million, with the remainder reflecting our quarterly dividend payment. In June, we announced a 7% dividend increase, our fifth consecutive year with a high single-digit quarterly increase.

轉向資本部署。我們在第二季向股東部署了約 15 億美元。股票回購支出約為 8 億美元，其餘部分反映了我們的季度股息支付。6 月份，我們宣布股息增加 7%，這是我們連續第五年實現高個位數季度成長。

Our balance sheet and liquidity positions remain strong. During the quarter, we issued bonds totaling $2 billion at attractive financing rates, and net debt in ME&T was $5.2 billion. We ended the quarter with an enterprise cash balance of $5.4 billion. In addition, we held $1.2 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash.

我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況依然強勁。本季度，我們以具吸引力的融資利率發行了總額為 20 億美元的債券，ME&T 的淨債務為 52 億美元。本季末，我們的企業現金餘額為 54 億美元。此外，我們也持有價值 12 億美元期限稍長的流動有價證券，以提高現金收益率。

Now on slide 14, let me start with a few comments on the full year. We are increasingly optimistic about our top line expectations based on what we see today. As Joe mentioned, demand signals have remained healthy, including backlog growth across our three primary segments. Against this supported backdrop, we now anticipate slightly higher sales this year with a stronger second half than is typical. This represents an improvement since our outlook last quarter.

現在在第 14 張投影片上，讓我先對全年發表一些評論。根據我們今天看到的情況，我們對我們的營收預期越來越樂觀。正如喬所提到的，需求訊號依然健康，包括我們三個主要部門的積壓訂單成長。在這種支援背景下，我們預計今年的銷售額將略有成長，下半年的銷售額將比往年更加強勁。這代表著自上個季度以來我們的展望有所改善。

To explain, we anticipate higher machine volume, including sales to users growth in the second half versus the prior year. Also, we continue to expect machine dealer inventories will be about flat for the full year, which implies some net build in the second half, versus a decrease in the corresponding time period in 2024. Energy & Transportation sales should grow in the second half as well, driven by the strength of our backlog and robust order activity. We expect some adverse price realization in the second half versus the prior year, although this will be at a lower level than in the first half.

具體來說，我們預計下半年機器銷售將比去年同期增加，包括用戶銷售也將成長。此外，我們仍然預計機械經銷商庫存將在全年基本持平，這意味著下半年將有一些淨增加，而 2024 年相應時期則會減少。受積壓訂單量和強勁訂單活動的推動，能源與運輸銷售額在下半年也有望成長。我們預計下半年的價格實現情況與去年同期相比會有所不利，儘管這一水平將低於上半年。

Now moving on to margins. Excluding the impact of incremental tariffs, the full year adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be in the top half of our margin target range. However, including the net impact from incremental tariffs, we now expect full year margins will be in the bottom half of the target range, on slightly higher sales and revenues versus 2024. Excluding this tariff impact, our second half margins are expected to be stronger than the prior year. However, we anticipate there will be lower when incorporating the net impact of incremental tariffs.

現在討論邊緣。排除增量關稅的影響，預計全年調整後的營業利潤率將處於我們利潤率目標範圍的上半部。然而，包括增量關稅的淨影響在內，我們現在預計全年利潤率將處於目標範圍的下半部分，銷售額和收入將略高於 2024 年。排除關稅影響，我們下半年的利潤率預計將高於去年同期。然而，我們預計，如果計入增量關稅的淨影響，這個數字將會更低。

Based on the incremental tariffs announced in 2025 and expected to be placed on August 7, we expect the net impact from incremental tariffs for 2025 will be around $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion, net of some mitigating actions and cost controls. This assumes higher net incremental tariff impacts in both the third and fourth quarters compared to the second quarter level.

根據 2025 年宣布並預計將於 8 月 7 日實施的增量關稅，我們預計 2025 年增量關稅的淨影響將在 13 億美元至 15 億美元左右，扣除一些緩解措施和成本控制。這意味著第三季和第四季的淨增量關稅影響將高於第二季的水平。

Due to the timing of recent rate changes, the headwind is likely to be larger in the fourth quarter when compared to the third quarter. As Joe mentioned, we expect ME&T free cash flow will be around the middle of the $5 billion to $10 billion target range, or around $7.5 billion. We now expect restructuring costs of approximately $300 million to $350 million in 2025. This is higher than we previously expected due to the timing of an anticipated loss on the divestiture of non-US entities.

由於近期利率調整的時間，第四季面臨的阻力可能比第三季更大。正如喬所提到的，我們預計 ME&T 自由現金流將處於 50 億美元至 100 億美元目標範圍的中間，約 75 億美元。我們現在預計 2025 年重組成本約為 3 億至 3.5 億美元。由於預期剝離非美國實體的損失時機，這一數字高於我們先前的預期。

On taxes, we are evaluating the impact of recently enacted US legislation and do not currently expect this change to have a material impact on our 2025 effective global tax rate, which we have previously estimated to be 23.0% for 2025, excluding discrete items.

在稅收方面，我們正在評估最近頒布的美國立法的影響，目前預計這項變更不會對我們 2025 年的全球有效稅率產生重大影響，我們先前估計 2025 年的全球有效稅率為 23.0%，不包括單一項目。

Turning to slide 15. To assist you with your modeling, I'll provide our third quarter assumptions. Based on what we see today, we anticipate third quarter sales will grow moderately versus the prior year, with higher volumes across all three primary segments. By segment, in Construction Industries, we expect sales increase in the third quarter versus the prior year on volume growth driven by strong sales to users. The year over price comparison begins to ease this quarter. We expect our sales merchandising programs will continue yielding results, supporting strong sales to users, but a headwind to our price realization in the quarter with the unfavorable impact, roughly half the size we saw in the second quarter of 2025. This headwind should continue to diminish in the fourth quarter.

翻到第 15 張投影片。為了幫助您建模，我將提供我們第三季的假設。根據我們今天看到的情況，我們預計第三季的銷售額將比上年溫和成長，三個主要部門的銷售量都將增加。按建築業細分，我們預計第三季銷售額將比去年同期增加，這得益於用戶銷售強勁推動的銷售成長。本季度，年比價格對比開始緩和。我們預計，我們的銷售商品計畫將繼續產生成果，支持向用戶進行強勁銷售，但對本季的價格實現將產生不利影響，其影響約為 2025 年第二季的一半。這種不利因素在第四季應該會繼續減弱。

In Resource Industries in the third quarter, we expect slightly higher sales versus the prior year, primarily due to higher volume, partially offset by an unfavorable price realization. The impact of price is expected to be similar to what we saw in the second quarter versus the prior year.

在資源產業，我們預計第三季的銷售額將比上年略有成長，這主要是由於銷售成長，但部分被不利的價格實現所抵消。預計價格的影響將與我們在第二季與去年同期看到的情況類似。

In Energy & Transportation in the third quarter, we anticipate sales growth versus the prior year driven by continued strength in power generation. We also expect higher sales in oil and gas driven by solar turbines and turbine-related services. Price realization should remain favorable as well.

在第三季的能源與交通領域，我們預計銷售額將比上年有所成長，這得益於發電量的持續強勁成長。我們也預計，在太陽能渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務的推動下，石油和天然氣的銷售將會增加。價格實現也應該保持有利。

Now I'll provide some color on our third quarter margin expectations. Excluding the net impact from incremental tariffs, we expect the third quarter enterprise adjusted operating profit margin will be similar to the prior year with higher sales volume above offset by unfavorable price realization and higher SG&A and R&D costs. Including the net impact from incremental tariffs, we anticipate a lower enterprise adjusted operating profit margin in the third quarter versus the prior year. As I mentioned, the tariff headwind should be larger than the second quarter, which reflected just a partial quarter's impact. We anticipate a net cost headwind of about $400 million to $500 million in the third quarter.

現在我將對我們第三季的利潤預期提供一些資訊。排除增量關稅的淨影響，我們預期第三季企業調整後的營業利潤率將與上年相似，但銷售量增加將被不利的價格實現以及更高的銷售、一般及行政費用和研發成本所抵銷。包括增量關稅的淨影響，我們預期第三季企業調整後的營業利潤率將低於去年同期。正如我所提到的，關稅逆風應該比第二季更大，而第二季僅反映了部分季度的影響。我們預計第三季淨成本逆風約為 4 億至 5 億美元。

Now I'll make a few comments regarding our segment margin expectations for the third quarter. In Construction Industries, excluding the impact from the incremental tariffs, we expect a similar margin compared to the prior year with higher sales volume, but offset by unfavorable price realization. Including the net impact from incremental tariffs, we anticipate lower margins in Construction Industries versus the prior year. We expect about 55% of the third quarter tariff impact will be incurred in Construction Industries.

現在，我將就我們第三季的分部利潤率預期發表一些評論。在建築業，排除增量關稅的影響，我們預期利潤率與前一年相比相似，且銷售量增加，但被不利的價格實現所抵消。包括增量關稅的淨影響，我們預計建築業的利潤率將比前一年有所下降。我們預計第三季關稅影響的約 55% 將發生在建築業。

In Resource Industries, excluding the impact from incremental tariffs, we anticipate a lower margin versus the prior year, mainly due to lower price realization and higher SG&A and R&D costs. The net impact from incremental tariffs will reduce it further. We expect about 20% of the third quarter tariff impact will be incurred in Resource Industries.

在資源產業，排除增量關稅的影響，我們預期利潤率將比上年下降，主要原因是價格實現下降以及銷售、一般及行政費用和研發成本上升。增量關稅的淨影響將進一步降低此水準。我們預計第三季關稅影響的約 20% 將發生在資源產業。

In Energy & Transportation, excluding the impact from incremental tariffs, we anticipate slightly higher margin versus the prior year, mainly due to higher volume and favorable price realization, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs. Including the net impact from incremental tariffs, we anticipate similar margins compared to the prior year. We expect about 25% of the third quarter tariff impact will be incurred in Energy & Transportation.

在能源與交通運輸領域，排除增量關稅的影響，我們預期利潤率將比上年略高，主要由於銷量增加和價格優惠，但製造成本上升部分抵消了這一影響。包括增量關稅的淨影響，我們預期利潤率將與前一年相似。我們預計第三季約 25% 的關稅影響將發生在能源和運輸領域。

So turning to slide 16, let me summarize. We are increasingly optimistic about our underlying business and now anticipate slightly higher sales for the full year, including a stronger second half. Business activity and customer financial health remains strong, as do our balance sheet and liquidity positions. With the net impact from incremental tariffs, we expect to be within the bottom half of our target range for adjusted operating profit margins, and around the middle of the target range for ME&T free cash flow. We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

請翻到第 16 張投影片，讓我來總結一下。我們對我們的基礎業務越來越樂觀，現在預計全年銷售額將略有成長，下半年銷售額將更加強勁。業務活動和客戶財務狀況依然強勁，我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況也是如此。受增量關稅的淨影響，我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將處於目標範圍的下半部分，而 ME&T 自由現金流將處於目標範圍的中間部分。我們將繼續執行長期獲利成長策略。

And with that, we'll take your questions.

接下來，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

I appreciate the quantification of the tariff headwinds. My question is not related to this year, more medium to longer term in nature. So without the tariff impact, your operating margin would have been in the top half of the target, which is absolutely impressive. So I'm curious how you're thinking about mitigating some of these tariff headwinds as you look in the medium to long term?

我很欣賞關稅阻力的量化。我的問題與今年無關，而是與中長期有關。因此，如果沒有關稅的影響，您的營業利潤率將達到目標的上半部分，這絕對令人印象深刻。所以我很好奇，從中長期來看，您如何考慮減輕這些關稅阻力？

Do you plan to change sourcing, or recoup some of the headwinds through pricing? Or should we expect part of this tariff headwind to be sort of structural and embedded in your long-term operating margin target range that you provide? So any color on how to think about tariffs and margins in the medium to long term?

您是否計劃改變採購管道，或透過定價來彌補部分不利因素？或者我們應該預期這種關稅逆風的一部分會是結構性的，並嵌入到您提供的長期營業利潤率目標範圍內？那麼，對於中長期的關稅和利潤率您有何看法？

Yeah. Thanks, Tami. This is Joe. Before we sort of dive into that and unpack it. I think one thing that's important to understand is maybe taking a step back and looking at the global nature and complexity of our business, the diversity of our business. We're a global business. We're proud of our global footprint that enables us to take care of customers all around the world. But as part of that global business, the US represents our largest footprint.

是的。謝謝，塔米。我是喬。在我們深入探討這個問題之前。我認為需要理解的一件重要的事情是退一步來看看我們業務的全球性和複雜性以及我們業務的多樣性。我們是一家全球性企業。我們為我們的全球業務範圍感到自豪，這使我們能夠為世界各地的客戶提供服務。但作為全球業務的一部分，美國佔據了我們最大的業務範圍。

We have over 50,000 employees in the US. We operate out of 65 key locations in 25 different states. We have been, and continue to be a net exporter out of the US. Since 2016, our exports, in fact, have grown 75%. And over that same time period, we've been able to increase our hourly production workforce by around 29%. We consider the breadth and diversity of our portfolio and the global end markets that we serve as a competitive advantage for us. But it does add some complexity in our supply chain. And we have a lot of different products and segments.

我們在美國有超過 50,000 名員工。我們在 25 個不同州的 65 個主要地點開展業務。我們一直是美國的淨出口國，並且將繼續如此。自2016年以來，我們的出口實際上成長了75%。在同一時間段內，我們的每小時生產勞動力數量增加了約 29%。我們認為，我們的產品組合的廣度和多樣性以及我們所服務的全球終端市場是我們的競爭優勢。但它確實增加了我們供應鏈的複雜性。我們有很多不同的產品和領域。

We've built a global supply chain that's unique to us. It works for us. It's been developed over a significant amount of time, and it allows us -- the strategy behind that supply chain allows us to increase our footprint here in the US, like I just mentioned, but at the same time being globally competitive on our cost structure as we serve customers around the globe. So I think you've seen that transpire and the way we've executed results over the last five years or so, and has generated good results for us.

我們建立了獨特的全球供應鏈。它對我們有用。它經過了相當長一段時間的開發，它使我們能夠——就像我剛才提到的那樣，該供應鏈背後的策略使我們能夠擴大在美國的業務範圍，但同時在我們為全球客戶提供服務時，我們的成本結構也具有全球競爭力。所以我想你已經看到了這種情況的發生以及我們在過去五年左右的執行結果，並且為我們帶來了良好的結果。

So in the context of how we're thinking about tariffs, we just need a little bit more certainty. We've learned a little bit more, obviously, in the last week or so in some of the announcements that are out. We're still working to understand the implications of those in the details. We still believe there's a little bit of uncertainty out there. And as we get further down the road and gain more clarity, we'll take the appropriate actions.

因此，在我們考慮關稅的背景下，我們只是需要更多的確定性。顯然，在過去一周左右發布的一些公告中，我們了解到了更多。我們仍在努力了解其中細節的含義。我們仍然相信，那裡還存在著一些不確定性。隨著我們取得進一步進展並獲得更清晰的認識，我們將採取適當的行動。

Some of those actions, and you kind of mentioned all of them. I think all of them are on the table. Obviously, some of the actions are quicker for us to implement and quicker for us to see results versus moving a footprint requires some investment and can take a significant amount of time. So I think it's in the context of how we're looking at it over time, we're going to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Exactly which lever we're going to pull, we're looking for a little more clarity before we reach into those.

其中一些行動，您幾乎都提到了。我認為所有問題都已擺在桌面上。顯然，有些行動我們可以更快地實施，並且可以更快地看到結果，而轉移足跡則需要一些投資，並且可能需要大量的時間。因此我認為，從長遠來看，我們將減輕關稅的影響。我們到底要拉哪個槓桿，在深入研究之前，我們需要更清楚地了解一下。

That doesn't mean we've been doing nothing. As Andrew mentioned, we're taking no regrets actions. We're trimming costs on discretionary spending, things that can be done quickly, easily reversed. Where we have limited dual sourcing, and it's beneficial to us. We're making those moves. We're working on certification of US MCA compliant products. We'll continue to do all those things in the short term. And we continue to analyze and try to figure out what the long-term levers we want to pull, and in what order. But we're going to keep everything on the table, and we're going to manage this over the medium term.

這並不意味著我們什麼都沒做。正如安德魯所說，我們採取了無悔的行動。我們正在削減可自由支配的開支，這些事情可以快速完成，而且很容易逆轉。我們的雙重採購有限，這對我們有利。我們正在採取這些行動。我們正在致力於符合美國 MCA 標準的產品的認證。短期內我們將繼續做所有這些事情。我們將繼續分析並試圖找出我們想要採取的長期措施，以及採取的順序。但我們會把所有問題擺到桌面上，並在中期內處理好這些問題。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索（David Raso），Evercore ISI。

The demand profile that you're building exiting '25 and '26 is obviously encouraging, right? Dealer inventory is down. Nice book-to-bill. And the backlog looks like, your next 12 months shipping and backlog is going to be over 80% of the implied second half sales. I mean, it's never been that high. I mean it averages 55-ish percent. Even in the last couple of years, you were never that high. So it does appear you have the demand profile, the low dealer inventory.

您在 25 年和 26 年之後所建構的需求概況顯然令人鼓舞，對嗎？經銷商庫存下降。訂單出貨比情況很好。看起來，未來 12 個月的運輸和積壓訂單將佔預計下半年銷售額的 80% 以上。我的意思是，它從來沒有這麼高過。我的意思是平均比例是 55% 左右。即使在過去的幾年裡，你的水平也從未如此高過。因此看起來你確實有需求概況，經銷商庫存較低。

But in a way, having the backlog covering that much already, I'm curious and even what you just said, completely prudent not to make any dramatic moves on supply chain moves. Is there a way to reprice the backlog? I'm just curious because the idea of having the backlog coverage is very encouraging. I'm just curious to sort of maybe get a lift going as we start, say, '26 on the margins, even with the tariff impact. Is there a way to reprice the backlog and maybe get the margin growth year over year say, as early as the beginning of '26?

但在某種程度上，由於積壓訂單已經涵蓋了那麼多，我很好奇，甚至正如你剛才所說，完全謹慎地不要在供應鏈上採取任何重大舉措。有沒有辦法重新定價積壓的貨物？我只是很好奇，因為積壓覆蓋的想法非常令人鼓舞。我只是好奇，當我們開始的時候，比如說，26 年的利潤率，即使有關稅的影響，是否能有所提升。有沒有辦法重新定價積壓訂單，並可能使利潤率逐年增長，例如早在 26 年初？

Yeah. I mean I'll let Andrew chime in, too. Thanks for the question, David. We -- generally speaking, we have flexibility on pricing in the backlog depending on which segment and the products that we have. As we look specifically, I think your questions around margins and pricing specifically, we want to take into context the entire business. We're -- as you pointed out rightfully, we have good momentum in the business operations. Our backlog continues to grow in all three segments.

是的。我的意思是我也會讓安德魯加入。謝謝你的提問，大衛。一般來說，我們可以靈活地根據我們所屬的細分市場和產品來定價積壓訂單。當我們具體觀察時，我認為您的問題具體涉及利潤和定價，我們希望將整個業務考慮在內。正如您正確指出的那樣，我們的業務運營勢頭良好。我們在所有三個領域的積壓訂單持續成長。

As you think about pricing towards the back half of this year, we'll lap those price merchandising program. So the headwind will become a little bit less year over year as we move towards the end of the year. And I'm not saying we're definitely focused on margins, but our ultimate goal is dollar OPEC. That's going to drive dollar profitability and cash flow and good returns for everyone. So we're going to get the balance right.

當您考慮今年下半年的定價時，我們將採用這些價格行銷計劃。因此，隨著年底的臨近，逆風將會逐年減弱。我並不是說我們一定關注利潤，但我們的最終目標是美元歐佩克。這將推動美元盈利能力和現金流，並為每個人帶來良好的回報。所以我們要取得正確的平衡。

I think also, you keep in mind when it's merchandising programs with Cat Financial and rates over time, that's beneficial for us. So we get some of that back. So we're going to look at it. We haven't made any decisions definitively at this point in time. But as you stated, we're definitely happy with the momentum that we have. And as we move towards the back half of this year, we'll continue to look at all the levers that we have. I'd like to see how much we can mitigate on tariffs, specifically other ways before we use pricing as a lever.

我還認為，當與 Cat Financial 合作進行商品推銷計劃並隨著時間的推移確定利率時，請記住這對我們有利。所以我們收回了一些。所以我們要去看看它。目前我們還沒有做出任何最終決定。但正如你所說，我們對目前的勢頭感到非常滿意。隨著今年下半年的到來，我們將繼續審視我們所擁有的所有槓桿。我想看看在利用價格作為槓桿之前，我們能以多大程度降低關稅，特別是其他方式。

And then I think the other context to look at this is as we lap and get back to the fourth quarter where it's less of a headwind year over year. Two years ago, particularly in the machine side of the business, we are in a constrained environment where we pulled back on discounting. So there's a level of this. I'm not saying all of it, but there's a certain level of it that is when you get to an unconstrained more normalized environment, we're returning to more normalized competitive merchandising programs.

然後我認為看待這個問題的另一個背景是，當我們回到第四季時，與去年相比，逆風已經減弱了。兩年前，特別是在機械業務方面，我們處於一個受限的環境中，我們減少了折扣。所以這是有一定程度的。我並不是說全部，但在某種程度上，當你進入一個不受約束的、更規範化的環境時，我們就會回到更標準化的競爭性商品銷售計畫。

But we're happy with the programs that are in place. They are driving incremental volume. Net-net, and (inaudible), the impact of the merchandising and volume in the second half, we anticipate to be a positive impact to our business. So that's a dial that we have to keep a close eye on, and we'll manage it appropriately.

但我們對現有的計劃感到滿意。他們正在推動增量交易量。淨額，以及（聽不清楚），下半年商品銷售和銷售的影響，我們預期會對我們的業務產生正面影響。因此，我們必須密切注意這一情況，並對其進行適當的管理。

Yeah. And obviously, what it does mean, David, is we have good momentum going into 2026, which is the most important thing. And just to remind you, obviously, always at the end of the day, operating leverage is always the most optimal way to manage margins for a company like Caterpillar. So that's one of the other areas we'll continue to keep an eye on and focus on.

是的。顯然，大衛，這意味著我們在進入 2026 年時將擁有良好的勢頭，這是最重要的事情。需要提醒您的是，顯然，對於像卡特彼勒這樣的公司來說，經營槓桿始終是管理利潤率的最佳方式。因此，這是我們將繼續關注和重點關注的其他領域之一。

amie Cook, Truist Securities.

amie Cook，Truist Securities。

Congrats on a nice quarter. I mean it sounds like the underlying margin performance of the company doing better ex tariffs, specifically to E&T, Joe, it's now the biggest segment for Caterpillar in terms of sales and in terms of profit. I'm just wondering to what degree are some of the capacity additions weighing on your sales output and on your margins in 2025? And where we expect to be, I guess, as we exit 2025 in terms of capacity -- the level of capacity that we've added and what that could mean for incremental sales margins as we look past 2025?

恭喜本季取得良好業績。我的意思是，這聽起來像是公司扣除關稅後的基本利潤率表現更好，特別是 E&T，喬，就銷售額和利潤而言，它現在是卡特彼勒最大的部門。我只是想知道，新增產能會在多大程度上影響你們 2025 年的銷售產出和利潤率？我猜，就產能而言，我們預計到 2025 年時，我們的產能將達到什麼水平——我們增加的產能水平以及這對 2025 年以後的增量銷售利潤率意味著什麼？

Jamie. Yeah, we're definitely happy with E&T and where it sits right now, both from a performance standpoint and a backlog standpoint. As you rightfully point out, each of our segments is in a different position. So when we talk about merchandising and pricing, E&T is in a little different situation. We're seeing positive pricing in E&T.

傑米。是的，我們對 E&T 及其目前的狀況非常滿意，無論是從性能角度還是積壓角度來看。正如您正確指出的那樣，我們每個部分都處於不同的位置。因此，當我們談論商品銷售和定價時，E&T 的情況略有不同。我們看到 E&T 的定價呈現正態勢。

We continue to get more throughput through the factory. We were able to host many of you there a few weeks ago. So you got to see the size and scale of the capacity investment that we're making. And so we're happy that we're able to get more throughput and continue to increase our output from the factory. That's not capacity related. That's really more working with our supply chain and efficiencies in the factory and trying to get out more product. I think you'll continue to see that as we move into 2026.

我們繼續透過工廠獲得更多的產量。幾週前我們在那裡接待了你們中的許多人。所以你必須看到我們正在進行的產能投資的規模和範圍。因此，我們很高興能夠獲得更高的吞吐量並繼續提高工廠的產量。這與容量無關。這實際上更多地與我們的供應鏈和工廠效率合作並試圖生產更多的產品。我認為，隨著我們進入 2026 年，你將繼續看到這種情況。

But the biggest sort of capacity coming online, I would think of it in terms of end of next year heading into '27, where we will hopefully see a little bit of a step change. But it's not linear. It's also not a cliff event, but we continue to improve and try to improve output every single month. So order rates continue to be strong. We're really happy with what we're seeing there.

但我認為最大的產能上線時間是在明年年底至 27 年，屆時我們希望能看到一點階梯變化。但它不是線性的。這也不是懸崖事件，而是我們每個月都在不斷改進，努力提高產量。因此訂單率持續保持強勁。我們對所見所聞感到非常高興。

And as far as the efficiency goes, I would say inventory levels, and you guys were there. You saw a lot of it in efficiency when you're trying to get more product out. At the same time, you're doing a big capacity investment at the factory. I would -- from my standpoint, clearly, we're not operating at the most efficient level that we could, but we're trying to make sure we keep up with demand. So as the capacity comes online, I would like to see us become more efficient and get to more normal operations as well. So I think there's a ton of upside here. We're extremely happy with the E&T business right now, and it's on a great trajectory.

就效率而言，我想說的是庫存水平，你們就在那裡。當您嘗試生產更多產品時，您會看到很多效率問題。同時，您正在對工廠進行大規模的產能投資。我會——從我的角度來看，顯然我們的營運效率還沒有達到最高水平，但我們正在努力確保滿足需求。因此，隨著產能上線，我希望看到我們變得更有效率並且能夠實現更正常的營運。所以我認為這裡有很多好處。我們對目前的 E&T 業務非常滿意，而且它的發展勢頭良好。

Robert Wertheimer, Melius Research.

羅伯特‧沃特海默（Robert Wertheimer），Melius Research。

I have two questions, I just basically the same question that you just touched on. So could you talk about whether orders being placed now, are you taking orders to expanded reset capacity that you have coming online as you mentioned like '26 and '27 and onward at Lafayette? And then we haven't really touched on solar capacity very much. Your opportunities there have expanded visibly in data center. I wonder if you might speak to capacity constraints there or whether you've increased capacity at Solar as well?

我有兩個問題，基本上和您剛才提到的問題相同。那麼，您能否談談現在是否正在下訂單，您是否正在接受擴大重置容量的訂單，正如您提到的 26 年和 27 年以及拉斐特之後的訂單？我們實際上還沒有過多地談論太陽能容量。您在資料中心的機會已明顯擴大。我想知道您是否可以談談那裡的產能限制，或者您是否也增加了太陽能的產能？

Yeah. We're taking orders pretty extended when it comes to data centers. It doesn't mean we can't take orders inside the time frame. But as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're planning with the largest data center customers years in advance. So we have line of sight to their schedules out into the time. I think that you're referring to as when the capacity comes online.

是的。當涉及到資料中心時，我們接受的訂單相當長一段時間。這並不意味著我們不能在規定時間內接受訂單。但正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們提前幾年就與最大的資料中心客戶進行了規劃。因此我們可以了解他們的日程安排。我認為您指的是容量上線時的情況。

Are we full between now and then? No. I mean we could still work some product in sooner, but we're definitely taking orders out that far and have good line of sight to what we think demand is when that capacity comes online. And when it comes to Solar, we continue to increase production there. We're pleased with the interest and uptake in the new Titan 350 platform. We're continuing to see I would say, almost unprecedented interest in power generation when it comes to solar turbines. And so we're happy with where we're at. We're able to keep up at the moment. We continue to work with the supply base to increase our output. And we'll keep an eye on that and see how that transpires as we move forward.

從現在到那時我們吃飽了嗎？不。我的意思是，我們仍然可以更快地生產出一些產品，但我們肯定會接受那麼遠的訂單，並且對產能上線時的需求有很好的預測。說到太陽能，我們繼續增加那裡的產量。我們對新 Titan 350 平台的興趣和接受度感到非常高興。我想說，我們繼續看到人們對太陽能渦輪機發電的興趣幾乎是前所未有的。我們對目前的狀況很滿意。我們目前能夠跟上。我們繼續與供應基地合作以提高產量。我們將密切關注此事，並觀察事態如何發展。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

I wanted to follow up on the tariffs -- tariff piece of this. Just helping us understand while it is still a dynamic environment. What are the key tariff-related uncertainties that we should be watching for? Just want to make sure that we have all of that captured in the current guide and trying to assess the risk that, that number will change in the back half of the year as we learn more.

我想跟進關稅問題——關稅部分。只是幫助我們理解，儘管它仍然是一個動態的環境。我們應該關注哪些與關稅相關的主要不確定因素？只是想確保我們在當前指南中涵蓋了所有這些內容，並嘗試評估隨著我們了解更多信息，該數字在下半年發生變化的風險。

Yeah. Kristen, as you know, obviously, there have been some and a fairly limited number actually of agreements actually made so far. So there are a number of countries reports today. Switzerland is not an impact on us. But for example the Swiss, all considering, are trying to negotiate. So there may be more countries that come in. So anything that is a country which is obviously still not subject to a heads of terms or an agreement would be an area which could change.

是的。克里斯汀，如你所知，顯然，到目前為止已經達成了一些協議，但數量相當有限。今天有許多國家的報告。瑞士對我們沒有影響。但例如瑞士人，都在考慮，並試圖進行談判。因此可能會有更多的國家加入。因此，任何一個國家，如果顯然還不受條款或協議的約束，那麼這個領域就有可能改變。

There are also some 232 and 302 investigations, which could have an impact on us as well. So it goes both ways, and we'll have to keep an eye on that. That's why we say the situation still remains very fluid and is subject to change.

還有一些232和302調查，也可能對我們產生影響。所以這是雙向的，我們必須密切注意這一點。這就是為什麼我們說局勢仍然非常不穩定並且可能會改變。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

I just want to go back to your comment about -- because building some inventory sequentially through the balance of the year to get to flat year on year. Just wanted to get a sense for, I guess, your decision on that? And then just where are you seeing the disability to get better to make that decision? And what do customers say?

我只是想回到你的評論——因為在全年餘額中連續建立一些庫存以實現同比持平。我只是想了解你對此的決定？那麼，您認為哪些缺陷能夠幫助人們更好地做出這項決定呢？那麼顧客們又怎麼說呢？

Yeah. So I mean, obviously, remind you that dealers are independent businesses and they make decisions about what inventory levels they hold. This is really just a planning assumption that we make based on what we're seeing from order rates that are coming in from dealers. We're assuming that based on what orders they've been placing, remind you now that we're getting close to actually a period of time where a dealer comes in, will be filled by the end of the year. We based our expectations on what we're seeing on sales to users. We would expect machines to be about flattish for the year. And that's really the driver of that assumption.

是的。所以我的意思是，顯然，提醒你經銷商是獨立企業，他們決定持有的庫存水準。這實際上只是我們根據來自經銷商的訂單率所做的規劃假設。我們假設，根據他們所下的訂單，現在提醒您，我們實際上已經接近經銷商進入的一段時間，並將在年底前完成。我們的預期是基於我們看到的用戶銷售情況。我們預計今年機器銷售將基本持平。這確實是該假設的驅動因素。

Remind you, again, this is complex. 150 dealers, 190-odd countries around the world. And a large product range, and we give you one number. So it's quite a complex activity, but that's generally what we're saying as a planning assumption. And that's based on what we're seeing from an order rate perspective from dealers at the moment.

再次提醒您，這很複雜。全球有 150 家經銷商，190 多個國家。產品範圍廣泛，我們只給您一個號碼。所以這是一項相當複雜的活動，但這通常是我們作為規劃假設所說的。這是基於我們目前從經銷商的訂單率角度看到的情況。

And I guess from my standpoint, the takeaway from that is if I'm sitting here the way I think you guys should think about it is we're in a different seasonal pattern than we normally are because we've had much stronger sales to users despite maybe some softness in the global construction industry. So where normally would have a drawdown in inventory in the second half, we don't expect to see that same pattern this year, which should give us a boost to our sales relatively speaking to what you would normally see in seasonality, which is why we think we're going to have a nice second half of the year this year.

我想從我的角度來看，如果我坐在這裡，我認為你們應該這樣想，我們正處於與正常情況不同的季節性模式，因為儘管全球建築業可能有些疲軟，但我們對用戶的銷售卻強勁得多。因此，通常下半年庫存會減少，但我們預計今年不會出現同樣的模式，這應該會為我們的銷售額帶來相對季節性的推動，這就是為什麼我們認為今年下半年會有一個不錯的表現。

Mig Dobre, Baird.

米格·多布雷，貝爾德。

Sorry, I have to go back to tariffs as well. I guess what I'm wondering here is your thoughts in terms of longer term, how much of this tariff drag you think you will be able to mitigate? Is there a component that's just sort of structural and it implies maybe permanently lower margins for your business?

抱歉，我還得回到關稅問題上。我想我在這裡想知道的是，從長期來看，您認為能夠減輕多少關稅拖累？是否存在某種結構性因素，可能意味著您企業的利潤率會永久降低？

And recognizing that things are still changing as we think about the first half of 2026, is it appropriate to kind of flow through the drag that you talked about in the fourth quarter into the first half of '26, and basically make the assumption that maybe things don't really get better until we have easier comparisons on the tariff front, starting with Q2, Q3?

當我們考慮 2026 年上半年時，我們認識到情況仍在發生變化，那麼將您在第四季度談到的阻力延續到 2026 年上半年是否合適，並且基本上假設情況可能不會真正好轉，直到我們在關稅方面有更容易的比較，從第二季度、第三季度開始？

Yeah. I think I'll start. Andrew, feel free to chime in here. I think it's way too uncertain. And as Andrew just mentioned, things are still moving around to call anything permanent, right? So we're not thinking in those terms right now. We have a lot of levers at our disposal over time, and we're going to -- all options are on the table for us to mitigate as we move forward. We're just waiting for a little bit of more certainty as we said.

是的。我想我應該開始了。安德魯，請隨意發表意見。我認為這太不確定了。正如安德魯剛才提到的，事情仍在不斷發展變化，還不能稱之為永久的，對嗎？所以我們現在還沒有考慮這些。隨著時間的推移，我們擁有許多可用的槓桿，我們將——在前進的過程中，我們會考慮所有可用的選項。正如我們所說，我們只是在等待更多的確定性。

And when it comes to 2026, it's way too early for us to talk about. We normally wouldn't but it's in this environment, especially just look how much has changed in the last quarter since we talked. So it's too early to talk about 2026. Hopefully, we'll have more clarity over the coming days and weeks, and we'll continue to keep everybody updated as we move throughout the year. But the way I would think about 2026 is in the context of the discussion we've had.

至於 2026 年，現在談論還為時過早。我們通常不會，但在這種環境下，尤其是看看自從我們談話以來上個季度發生了多大的變化。因此現在談論 2026 年還為時過早。希望在接下來的幾天和幾週內我們能有更清晰的了解，並且我們會在全年繼續向大家通報最新情況。但我對 2026 年的思考是基於我們先前討論的背景。

We've got great operational performance right now. We've got great momentum, and we've raised our outlook for the rest of this year on the top line. And we think we're going to have a strong second half. And obviously, that builds great momentum as we head into next year. So we'll update everyone on 2026 later in the year, but I think it's just too soon.

我們目前的營運表現非常出色。我們擁有強勁的發展勢頭，並且已經提高了今年剩餘時間的營收預期。我們認為下半年我們將會表現強勁。顯然，這將為我們進入明年累積巨大的動力。因此，我們將在今年稍後向大家更新 2026 年的情況，但我認為現在還為時過早。

Yeah. And just again, just as always as a reminder, our actual focus is on profitable growth. So it's growing absolute OPAC dollars and margins are important. That's the reason why we have guidelines. But obviously, that's not necessarily the entire focus. So you would always have to trade off where you would see potential volume impact versus price impact. So that will be one of the things we'll work on and work on as we get closer to the end of the year and update you as normal in January.

是的。再次提醒大家，我們的實際重點是獲利成長。因此，不斷增長的 OPAC 絕對收入和利潤率非常重要。這就是我們制定指導方針的原因。但顯然，這不一定是全部重點。因此，您總是必須在潛在的銷售影響和價格影響之間進行權衡。因此，這將是我們在接近年底時要努力做的事情之一，我們將在一月份照常向您更新資訊。

Steve Volkmann, Jefferies.

史蒂夫‧福克曼，傑富瑞集團。

Maybe I just I'll stay with this thread because I guess the final piece of the puzzle here is sort of the competitive dynamic. And I'm curious what you're seeing from competitors? It sounds like your pens may actually be up a little bit here. But how do you balance sort of what they're doing and what you're doing in your pins targets?

也許我只是會繼續這個主題，因為我猜這裡謎題的最後一部分是競爭動態。我很好奇您從競爭對手身上看到了什麼？聽起來你的筆實際上可能在這裡稍微向上了一點。但是，您如何平衡他們所做的事情和您在目標中所做的事？

We're focused on taking care of our customers and what we can do. Obviously, we're happy with the way things are going and the merchandising programs. We're getting a great response in construction industries, especially on those programs. As we mentioned, our sales users continue to be up, particularly in North America, but globally for CI up and despite some softness in the global construction industry.

我們專注於照顧我們的客戶以及我們能做的事情。顯然，我們對事情的進展和商品銷售計劃感到滿意。我們在建築業得到了很好的迴響，尤其是這些項目。正如我們所提到的，我們的銷售用戶持續成長，特別是在北美，但全球範圍內的 CI 都在成長，儘管全球建築業有所疲軟。

So from a performance standpoint, we feel like we're very competitive right now. Obviously, we continue to monitor that and make any adjustments as we move forward. But we have great momentum as you suggest, and we'll keep managing it and intend to keep that going.

因此從性能角度來看，我們覺得我們現在非常有競爭力。顯然，我們會繼續監控這一點，並在前進的過程中做出任何調整。但正如您所說，我們擁有強大的發展勢頭，我們將繼續管理並打算保持這種勢頭。

Michael Feniger, Bank of America.

美國銀行的麥可費尼格。

Joe, just on your earlier comment on Construction Industries and the guidance for machine dealer inventories finished the year flattish. I mean I believe Q4 last year, there was a destock over $1 billion, close to $1.6 billion. You're expecting retail sales to be positive. They've been positive. Just -- are we -- is Construction Industries exiting this year? In Q4, are we up double digits as we exit this year in construction based on where the inventory levels are, what you're seeing on retail sales?

喬，正如您之前對建築業的評論以及對機械經銷商庫存的指導，今年的庫存情況持平。我的意思是，我相信去年第四季的去庫存量超過 10 億美元，接近 16 億美元。您預期零售額將為正數。他們一直很積極。只是──我們──建築業今年會退出嗎？在第四季度，根據庫存水準以及零售額的情況，我們今年的建築業銷售額是否將出現兩位數的成長？

And just a follow-up on that, the merchandising program, you're explaining it to success. Should we think that pricing headwind is neutral as we exit the year? Or it just starts to kind of narrow at a notable pace? Just any direction would be helpful there.

繼續跟進，您正在解釋商品推銷計劃的成功之處。在即將結束的這一年中，我們是否應該認為定價逆風是中性的？或者它只是開始以明顯的速度變窄？任何方向都會有幫助。

Yeah. We do expect a strong fourth quarter for Construction Industries on top of a strong performance of us in the third quarter. That would be because, as you quite correctly point out the absence of that deal inventory decrease that we saw last year of around $1.6 billion in machines, which obviously impacts both Resource Industries as well as construction, although the vast majority was in construction. So I think that's a reasonable assumption you're making with that regard.

是的。我們確實預計，在第三季表現強勁的基礎上，建築業第四季也將表現強勁。那是因為，正如您非常正確地指出的那樣，去年機械交易庫存減少了約 16 億美元，這顯然對資源行業和建築業都產生了影響，儘管絕大多數都發生在建築業。所以我認為你在這方面所做的假設是合理的。

As far as price is concerned, we -- effectively, the merchandising program has really started to kick in, in the third quarter of last year. So we are starting to lap that. That's why it's starting to decrease, while we're expecting it to halve in the third quarter. We expected that to narrow further in the fourth quarter. There will still be some impact in the fourth quarter, and there will still be some drag through into 2026, subject to any other decisions we take around pricing, which we may take as we move into 2026.

就價格而言，實際上，商品推銷計劃在去年第三季才真正開始發揮作用。因此我們開始著手解決這個問題。這就是它開始下降的原因，而我們預計它在第三季會減半。我們預計第四季這一差距將進一步縮小。第四季仍會受到一些影響，到 2026 年仍會受到一些拖累，這取決於我們在定價方面做出的任何其他決定，我們可能會在進入 2026 年時做出這些決定。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

瑞銀的史蒂文·費雪。

So it sounds like you have a more positive outlook in construction industries for the second half, including some rental fleet reloading. Can you talk about what you see driving that? Is that already based on what dealers are telling you? And if it's picking up, just tying that to the merchandising programs, I know that you're lapping them year over year, but if things are picking up, kind of just thoughts around why you think you still need the merchandising intensive from here?

因此聽起來您對下半年建築業持更樂觀的展望，包括一些租賃車隊的重新裝載。你能談談你認為推動這項進程的因素嗎？這是根據經銷商告訴您的情況得出的結論嗎？如果情況好轉，就將其與商品推銷計劃聯繫起來，我知道您每年都在重複這些計劃，但如果情況好轉，您是否想過為什麼您認為從現在開始仍然需要密集的商品推銷？

Yeah. So with regards to the merchandising programs, just to remind you, one of the benefits of actually doing a -- one of the things that's most attractive to many of our customers is a low interest financing. The benefit of that is, obviously, rather than giving you an upfront discount, it is built. You do recall that as a cost in the quarter that is incurred. But effectively, over time, over the period of the financing deal, you recover some of that through margin. We estimate that somewhere around 50% of the total cost.

是的。因此，關於商品推銷計劃，只是提醒您，實際開展這項計劃的好處之一——對我們的許多客戶來說最有吸引力的事情之一就是低息融資。顯然，這樣做的好處是，它不是給你預付折扣，而是建立在建立基礎上。您確實記得這是本季發生的一項成本。但實際上，隨著時間的推移，在融資交易期間，您可以透過保證金收回其中的一部分。我們估計這大約佔總成本的 50%。

So it's an attractive program. I think everyone knows that interest rates have stayed higher longer than people were expecting. So low interest rate deals are very attractive, particularly for retail customers and helps them to make a decision about buying a machine. So we will still use that as a mechanism to make buying Cat equipment a priority for those people. So that's really the fact there.

所以這是一個很有吸引力的項目。我想每個人都知道，利率維持在高點的時間比人們預期的要長。因此，低利率交易非常有吸引力，特別是對於零售客戶而言，可以幫助他們做出購買機器的決定。因此，我們仍將使用此機制，讓這些人優先購買 Cat 設備。事實確實如此。

With regards to rental. Rental revenue has been rising. As you know, rental fleet loading tends to be a little bit lumpy. Dealers tend to do it at points in time, depending on -- particularly around their heavy rents. What equipment is actually exiting. So sometimes customers will rent a machine for a period of time and then actually buy that machine at period of time based on the rent. We've been through a period of time year over year, where that loading has diminished. We expect now to start to see that to come back to a more normalized level as we move into the second half of this year.

關於租賃。租金收入一直在上升。如您所知，租賃車隊的裝載量往往有點不穩定。經銷商往往會根據特定時間點來做這件事，尤其是在租金高昂的時候。實際退出的是哪些設備。因此，有時客戶會租用一台機器一段時間，然後根據租金在一定時期內購買機器。我們經歷了一年又一年的負荷減少時期。我們預計，隨著今年下半年的到來，這一水平將開始恢復到更正常的水平。

And as we mentioned, dealer rental -- dealer rental revenue has been growing despite the fact they hadn't loaded in the first half. So we think that some of that is the timing of load, and we'll start to see that pick up in the second half.

正如我們所提到的，儘管上半年經銷商的租賃業務量沒有增加，但經銷商租賃收入一直在增加。因此，我們認為其中一部分是負載時間的問題，我們將在下半年開始看到這種情況的回升。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

花旗集團的凱爾孟格斯 (Kyle Menges)。

You could talk about just the Resource Industries backlog and level of visibility into '26. And I know you're expecting volume to be positive. It sounds like in the second half, so just what you're seeing in the backlog and hearing from customers that's giving you confidence in that positive volume growth sustaining into 2026?

您可以只談論資源產業的積壓情況以及對 26 年的可見度。我知道您期望交易量為正。聽起來像是在下半年，那麼您從積壓訂單中看到的以及從客戶那裡聽到的是什麼讓您對持續到 2026 年的正銷量增長充滿信心？

And then I guess second part of the question would just be -- it sounds like you're seeing some weakness in coal would be helpful maybe if you could remind us your rough exposures by commodities? I know coal has come down as an exposure would be helpful to hear how much it is today of the exposure versus exposure to other commodities?

然後我想問題的第二部分就是──聽起來你看到煤炭市場有些疲軟，如果你能提醒我們一下你在大宗商品方面的粗略敞口，這也許會有所幫助？我知道煤炭的暴露量已經下降，了解目前煤炭的暴露量與其他商品的暴露量相比有多少會很有幫助？

Yeah, I think one thing we said our (inaudible) it will be a little bit softer here in the second half, but our order rates are healthy and the backlog is up, particularly around large trucks, articulated trucks, we're seeing strong demand there. And so we're not talking about 2026 yet, but when it comes to those products, we are taking healthy orders, and those are a little bit longer lead times.

是的，我想我們說過的一件事是（聽不清楚）下半年這裡的情況會稍微疲軟一些，但我們的訂單率很健康，積壓訂單也在增加，特別是大型卡車、鉸接式卡車，我們看到那裡的需求強勁。因此，我們還沒有談論 2026 年，但就這些產品而言，我們正在接受健康的訂單，而且交貨時間會更長一些。

So we're happy with where we're at. We'll talk a little more about '26 as we head towards the end of the year. But the encouraging signs are the backlog order rates continue to be strong. And so we'll just -- I guess I'll leave it at that.

我們對目前的狀況很滿意。隨著年底的臨近，我們將更多地談論 26 年。但令人鼓舞的跡像是積壓訂單率持續保持強勁。所以我們只是——我想我會就此打住。

Yeah. And as regards , obviously, we do not give our exposures by commodity, but we have mentioned in the past. The coal revenues are low single digits as a percentage of total revenue, and that obviously is diminishing over time.

是的。至於，顯然，我們不會按商品提供風險敞口，但我們過去曾提到過。煤炭收入佔總收入的比例僅為個位數，而且顯然隨著時間的推移而減少。

All right. Well, thank you, everyone. I'd like to say thanks for joining us today. We always appreciate your questions and your interest in Caterpillar. I'm proud of the team for what has been what I consider a really solid executing -- execution in the second quarter, and we're really excited about what's ahead and look forward to having a strong second half.

好的。好的，謝謝大家。我想對您今天的參加表示感謝。我們始終感謝您的提問以及您對卡特彼勒的關注。我為團隊感到自豪，因為我認為我們第二季的執行非常出色，我們對未來充滿期待，並期待下半年取得強勁成績。

So with that, I'll turn it over here to Alex.

因此，我將把話題交給亞歷克斯。

Thank you, Joe, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll find a second quarter results video with our CFO, and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Visit investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view those materials.

謝謝喬、安德魯以及今天加入我們的所有人。我們的通話重播將於今天上午晚些時候在網上提供。我們也將盡快在投資者關係網站上發布一份成績單。您將看到我們財務長的第二季業績視頻，以及一份包含我們向用戶銷售數據的美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件。請造訪 investors.caterpillar.com，然後按一下「財務」以查看這些資料。

As Joe mentioned and as we stated in the press release announcing our Investor Day, we look forward to hosting you on November 4. We'll provide more details in the coming weeks ahead. If you have any questions, please reach out to me or Rob Rengel. The Investor Relations general phone number is (309) 675-4549.

正如喬提到的以及我們在宣布投資者日的新聞稿中所說的那樣，我們期待在 11 月 4 日接待您。我們將在未來幾週提供更多詳細資訊。如果您有任何疑問，請聯絡我或 Rob Rengel。投資者關係總機號碼為 (309) 675-4549。

Now let's turn it back to Audra to conclude our call.

現在讓我們把話題轉回奧德拉來結束我們的通話。

Thank you. That concludes our call. Thank you for joining. You may all disconnect.

謝謝。我們的通話到此結束。感謝您的加入。你們都可以斷開連線。