開拓重工 (CAT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the third quarter 2024 Caterpillar earnings conference call.

歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler.

我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人瑞安費德勒 (Ryan Fiedler)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks, Audra.

謝謝，奧德拉。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's third quarter of 2024 earnings call.

大家早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我是瑞安費德勒 (Ryan Fiedler)，投資者關係副總裁。

Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; Alex Kapper, Vice President-Elect of IR; and Rob Rengel, Senior Director of IR.

今天與我一起出席的是董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby；安德魯‧邦菲爾德，財務長； Kyle Epley，全球金融服務部資深副總裁； Alex Kapper，IR 當選副總裁；以及 IR 資深總監 Rob Rengel。

During our call, we'll be discussing the third quarter earnings release we issued earlier today.

在電話會議中，我們將討論今天稍早發布的第三季財報。

You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations.

您可以在 Investors.caterpillar.com 的「活動和簡報」中找到我們的幻燈片、新聞稿和網路廣播回顧。

Content of this call is protected by US and international copyright law.

本次通話的內容受美國及國際版權法保護。

Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited.

未經 Caterpillar 事先書面許可，禁止重播、轉發、複製或散佈本內容的全部或部分內容。

Moving to slide 2.

轉到投影片 2。

During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，這些聲明存在風險和不確定性。

We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call.

我們也將做出一些假設，這些假設可能導致我們的實際結果與我們在本次電話會議中與您分享的資訊有所不同。

Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that individually or in aggregate could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast.

請參閱我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件以及新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明提醒，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預測產生重大差異的單獨或總體因素的詳細資訊。

A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings.

我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細討論了我們認為可能對我們的業務持續產生重大影響的許多因素。

On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers.

在今天的電話會議上，我們還將提及非 GAAP 數據。

For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate US GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides.

有關任何非 GAAP 數據與相應的美國 GAAP 數據的調節，請參閱收益電話會議投影片的附錄。

Now let's turn to slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 3，並將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for joining us.

感謝您加入我們。

As we close out the third quarter, I want to thank our global team for another good quarter as our results reflect the benefit of the diversity of our end markets.

在第三季結束時，我要感謝我們的全球團隊又一個出色的季度，因為我們的業績反映了終端市場多樣性的好處。

We delivered strong adjusted operating profit margin and adjusted profit per share, which were consistent with our expectations, although our top line was lower than we anticipated.

儘管我們的營收低於我們的預期，但我們實現了強勁的調整後營業利潤率和調整後每股利潤，這與我們的預期一致。

We also generated ME&T free cash flow of $2.7 billion in the third quarter.

第三季我們也產生了 27 億美元的 ME&T 自由現金流。

Our robust ME&T free cash flow, along with our strong balance sheet, allowed us to deploy over $9 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends during the first 3 quarters of the year, including $1.5 billion this quarter.

我們強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流以及強勁的資產負債表使我們能夠在今年前 3 季透過股票回購和股息向股東部署超過 90 億美元，其中本季為 15 億美元。

We continue to remain disciplined in the execution of our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

我們持續嚴格執行長期獲利成長策略。

I'll begin with my perspectives about our performance in the quarter and will provide an update on our full year expectations.

我將首先介紹我對本季業績的看法，並將提供我們全年預期的最新情況。

I'll then provide some insights about our end markets, followed by an update on our strategy and sustainability journey.

然後，我將提供一些有關我們終端市場的見解，然後介紹我們的策略和永續發展之旅的最新資訊。

Moving to quarterly results.

轉向季度業績。

Sales and revenues were down 4% in the third quarter versus last year, below our expectations due to the impact of lower-than-expected sales to users in Construction Industries and timing of deliveries in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation.

由於建築業用戶銷售額低於預期以及資源產業和能源與運輸業交付時間的影響，第三季銷售額和收入較去年下降 4%，低於我們的預期。

Services increased in the quarter compared to 2023.

與 2023 年相比，本季的服務有所增加。

Adjusted operating profit margin was generally in line with our expectations at 20%.

調整後營業利益率為 20%，基本上符合我們的預期。

We achieved quarterly adjusted profit per share of $5.17, in line with our expectations at the time of the last earnings call.

我們實現了季度調整後每股利潤 5.17 美元，符合我們上次財報電話會議時的預期。

In addition, our backlog increased slightly to $28.7 billion and remains at a very healthy level.

此外，我們的積壓訂單略有增加，達到 287 億美元，並保持在非常健康的水平。

For the full year, although we updated our expectations since our last earnings call to reflect sales being slightly below our prior estimate, our expected adjusted operating profit margin is unchanged and remains above the top of the range.

就全年而言，儘管我們自上次財報電話會議以來更新了預期，以反映銷售額略低於我們先前的預期，但我們預期的調整後營業利潤率保持不變，仍高於區間上限。

Also our expectation for adjusted profit per share is unchanged.

我們對調整後每股獲利的預期也沒有改變。

We are increasing our expectations for ME&T free cash flow and now anticipate it will be near the top of our target range of $5 billion to $10 billion.

我們正在提高對 ME&T 自由現金流的預期，現在預計它將接近我們 50 億至 100 億美元目標範圍的頂部。

Turning to slide 4.

轉到投影片 4。

In the third quarter of 2024, sales and revenues declined 4% to $16.1 billion due to lower sales volume.

2024 年第三季度，由於銷量下降，銷售額和收入下降 4% 至 161 億美元。

Compared to the third quarter of 2023, overall sales to users decreased 6%.

與 2023 年第三季相比，向用戶的整體銷售額下降了 6%。

For machines, which includes Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users declined by 10%, which was below our expectations.

對於包括建築業和資源行業在內的機器，向用戶的銷售額下降了 10%，低於我們的預期。

Energy & Transportation continue to grow as sales to users increased 5%.

能源與運輸業務持續成長，向用戶的銷售額成長了 5%。

Sales to users in Construction Industries were down 7% year-over-year.

建築業用戶銷售額較去年同期下降 7%。

In North America, sales to users were down primarily due to lower rental fleet loading and the absence of a large pipeline deal in the third quarter of 2023.

在北美，對用戶的銷售額下降主要是由於租賃車隊裝載量減少以及 2023 年第三季沒有大型管道交易。

Excluding these 2 items, sales to users were about flat versus the prior year.

排除這兩項，用戶銷售額與上年持平。

Compared to our expectations, sales to users were lower than expected, impacted by rental fleet loading.

與我們的預期相比，受租賃車隊裝載量的影響，對使用者的銷售額低於預期。

Our dealers' rental revenue continued to grow in the quarter.

本季我們經銷商的租金收入持續成長。

Sales to users declined in EAME, primarily due to ongoing weakness in construction activity in Europe.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區的用戶銷售額下降，主要是由於歐洲建築活動持續疲軟。

Sales to users in Asia-Pacific declined, while Latin America increased.

亞太地區用戶的銷售額下降，而拉丁美洲用戶的銷售額則增加。

In Resource Industries, sales to users declined 18%, generally in line with our expectations versus a strong third quarter in 2023.

在資源產業，用戶銷售額下降了 18%，與 2023 年第三季的強勁表現基本一致。

Mining as well as heavy construction and quarry and aggregates were lower mainly due to softness we've previously discussed for 2 products: articulated trucks and off-highway trucks.

採礦業以及重型建築、採石場和骨材價格較低，主要是由於我們之前討論過的兩種產品的疲軟：鉸接式卡車和非公路卡車。

In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 5%, and we continue to see growth in all applications except industrial.

在能源和交通領域，用戶銷售額成長了 5%，我們繼續看到除工業以外的所有應用領域的成長。

Power generation sales to users grew strongly as market conditions remain favorable for both reciprocating engines and solar turbines and turbine-related services.

由於市場條件仍有利於往復式發動機、太陽能渦輪機以及渦輪機相關服務，因此對用戶的發電銷售強勁成長。

Oil and gas sales to users benefited from strong sales of turbines and turbine-related services.

對用戶的石油和天然氣銷售受益於渦輪機和渦輪機相關服務的強勁銷售。

For reciprocating engines in oil and gas applications, sales to users were higher for gas compression, but lower in well servicing.

對於石油和天然氣應用中的往復式發動機，氣體壓縮向用戶的銷售量較高，但油井維修的銷售量較低。

Transportation sales to users increased, while industrial declined as we expected.

對用戶的運輸銷售增加，而工業銷售正如我們預期的那樣下降。

Our results continue to reflect the benefit of the diversity of our end markets as well as the disciplined execution of our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

我們的業績持續反映了我們終端市場多樣性的好處以及我們長期獲利成長策略的嚴格執行。

Moving to dealer inventory and our backlog.

轉向經銷商庫存和我們的積壓訂單。

In total, dealer inventory increased by $400 million versus the second quarter of 2024.

與 2024 年第二季相比，經銷商庫存總計增加了 4 億美元。

For machines, dealer inventory increased by $100 million, slightly more than we had anticipated.

對於機器，經銷商庫存增加了 1 億美元，略高於我們的預期。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, our current planning assumptions forecast a reduction in machine dealer inventory.

展望第四季度，我們目前的規劃假設預計機器經銷商庫存將減少。

And we expect machine dealer inventory to end the year around the same level as year-end 2023.

我們預計今年底機器經銷商庫存將與 2023 年底持平。

Dealers are independent businesses and make stocking decisions across a wide range of products based on multiple factors across the product portfolio.

經銷商是獨立企業，根據產品組合中的多種因素做出各種產品的庫存決策。

While machine dealer inventory is currently around the top end of the typical range, we remain comfortable with the overall level of dealer inventory.

雖然機器經銷商庫存目前處於典型範圍的上限附近，但我們對經銷商庫存的整體水準仍然感到滿意。

As I mentioned, backlog increased slightly versus the second quarter to $28.7 billion.

正如我所提到的，積壓訂單較第二季略有增加，達到 287 億美元。

Energy & Transportation increased as we continue to see strong demand for solar turbines in oil and gas and power generation as well as strong demand for reciprocating engines for power generation.

由於我們繼續看到石油、天然氣和發電領域對太陽能渦輪機的強勁需求以及對發電用往復式發動機的強勁需求，能源和交通運輸業有所增長。

Moving to slide 5.

轉到投影片 5。

We generated robust ME&T free cash flow of $2.7 billion in the third quarter and $6.4 billion in the first 3 quarters of 2024.

我們在第三季產生了 27 億美元的強勁 ME&T 自由現金流，在 2024 年前三個季度產生了 64 億美元。

As I mentioned, year-to-date, we deployed more than $9 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

正如我所提到的，今年迄今為止，我們透過股票回購和股利向股東分配了超過 90 億美元。

We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases.

我們仍然為自己的股息貴族地位感到自豪，並繼續期望隨著時間的推移，透過股息和股票回購將大部分 ME&T 自由現金流返還給股東。

Now on slide 6, I'll describe our expectations for our 3 primary segments moving forward.

現在，在投影片 6 上，我將描述我們對未來 3 個主要細分市場的期望。

In Construction Industries, we expect lower sales to users in the fourth quarter, but remain positive about the longer-term demand outlook.

在建築業，我們預計第四季度用戶銷售額將下降，但對長期需求前景保持樂觀。

During our August earnings call, we noted a lower level of rental fleet loading in North America, which continued into the third quarter, and we now expect the trend to persist in the fourth quarter.

在我們 8 月的財報電話會議上，我們注意到北美租賃車隊裝載水平較低，這種情況持續到第三季度，我們現在預計這一趨勢將在第四季度持續。

Although we have lowered our expectations for sales to users in the fourth quarter primarily due to lower rental fleet loading, dealer rental revenue continues to grow.

儘管主要由於租賃車隊裝載量下降，我們降低了第四季度對用戶的銷售預期，但經銷商租賃收入仍在持續成長。

In addition, government-related infrastructure projects are expected to remain healthy, supported by funding yet to be spent from the IIJA.

此外，在 IIJA 尚未支出的資金支持下，與政府相關的基礎設施項目預計將保持健康發展。

In Asia-Pacific, outside of China, we expect soft economic conditions to continue.

在中國以外的亞太地區，我們預期疲軟的經濟狀況將持續下去。

We anticipate demand in China will remain at a relatively low level for the above 10-ton excavator industry.

我們預計中國10噸以上挖土機產業的需求將維持在相對較低的水平。

In EAME, we anticipate that weak economic conditions in Europe will continue, partially offset by continued healthy construction demand in the Middle East.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們預期歐洲疲軟的經濟狀況將持續下去，但中東地區持續健康的建築需求將部分抵銷這種影響。

Construction activity in Latin America remains healthy, and we are expecting modest growth to continue.

拉丁美洲的建築活動依然健康，我們預計將繼續溫和成長。

In addition, we expect the ongoing benefit of our services initiatives will positively impact Construction Industries.

此外，我們預計我們的服務計劃的持續效益將對建築業產生積極影響。

Next, I'll discuss Resource Industries.

接下來，我將討論資源產業。

After a strong performance in 2023 in mining as well as heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we continue to anticipate lower machine volume in the fourth quarter of 2024 versus last year.

繼 2023 年採礦業以及重型建築、採石場和骨材領域表現強勁後，我們繼續預期 2024 年第四季的機器產量將低於去年。

However, the rate of decline for sales to users in the fourth quarter is expected to moderate versus the previous quarters.

然而，第四季度用戶銷售額的下降速度預計將比前幾個季度放緩。

We expect to see higher services revenues, including robust rebuild activity.

我們預計服務收入將會增加，包括強勁的重建活動。

Customer product utilization remains high.

客戶產品利用率仍然很高。

The number of parked trucks remains relatively low.

停放的卡車數量仍然相對較少。

The age of the fleet remains elevated, and our autonomous solutions continue to see strong customer acceptance.

車隊的車齡仍然很高，我們的自動駕駛解決方案繼續得到客戶的廣泛認可。

Customers continue to display capital discipline.

客戶繼續表現出資本紀律。

However, we continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for long-term profitable growth.

然而，我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，能源轉型將支持大宗商品需求的增加，擴大我們的潛在市場總量，並為長期獲利成長提供更多機會。

Moving to Energy & Transportation.

轉向能源和交通。

For power generation, demand is expected to remain strong.

對於發電，預計需求將保持強勁。

And we expect robust growth in the fourth quarter and full year sales for both reciprocating engines and solar turbines.

我們預計往復式發動機和太陽能渦輪機的第四季和全年銷售將強勁成長。

Overall strength in power generation continues to be driven by data center growth related to cloud computing and generative AI.

發電的整體實力持續受到與雲端運算和產生人工智慧相關的資料中心成長的推動。

And we expect this trend to continue.

我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去。

In oil and gas, in total, we continue to expect a stronger year overall in 2024 versus 2023.

總體而言，在石油和天然氣領域，我們繼續預計 2024 年將比 2023 年整體強勁。

For solar turbines used in oil and gas applications, we expect a strong fourth quarter, but sales are expected to be lower than the fourth quarter of 2023 due to the timing of deliveries.

對於石油和天然氣應用中使用的太陽能渦輪機，我們預計第四季度將表現強勁，但由於交付時間的原因，銷售額預計將低於 2023 年第四季。

The increase in power generation at Solar will mostly offset Solar's decline in oil and gas.

Solar 發電量的增加將大部分抵消 Solar 石油和天然氣發電量的下降。

So we expect Solar's total sales in the fourth quarter to be roughly flat compared to last year.

因此我們預計太陽能第四季的總銷售額將與去年基本持平。

Solar has a strong backlog as well as healthy order and inquiry activity.

Solar 有大量積壓訂單以及健康的訂單和詢價活動。

And we continue to expect full year growth for Solar in oil and gas.

我們繼續預計太陽能在石油和天然氣領域的全年成長。

After a strong 2023, we expect reciprocating engine sales and oil and gas to be slightly down this year, primarily due to ongoing softness in well servicing.

在經歷了 2023 年的強勁表現之後，我們預計今年往復式發動機的銷售以及石油和天然氣將略有下降，這主要是由於油井服務持續疲軟。

We still expect gas compression to be up for the full year.

我們仍然預計全年天然氣壓縮量將會上升。

However, we expect it to soften in the near term as equipment lead times have normalized.

然而，隨著設備交貨時間正常化，我們預計短期內它會軟化。

As we had previously mentioned, we can leverage our large engine platforms across a variety of applications.

正如我們之前提到的，我們可以在各種應用程式中利用我們的大型引擎平台。

Based on current market conditions in well servicing applications, we are able to serve additional power generation demand as we continue to meet oil and gas customer needs, while optimizing our overall large engine capacity.

根據目前修井應用的市場狀況，我們能夠在繼續滿足石油和天然氣客戶需求的同時，滿足額外的發電需求，同時優化我們的整體大型引擎容量。

Industrial demand has continued to remain at a relatively low level compared to 2023.

與2023年相比，工業需求持續維持在較低水準。

In transportation, we anticipate full year growth in both rail services and marine applications.

在交通運輸方面，我們預計鐵路服務和船舶應用全年都會成長。

Moving to slide 7.

轉到投影片 7。

Now I'll provide an update on our strategy and sustainability journey.

現在我將提供有關我們的策略和永續發展之旅的最新資訊。

In February of 2024, we announced a multiyear capital investment in our large reciprocating engine division to approximately double output capability compared to 2023 for new engines and aftermarket parts.

2024 年 2 月，我們宣布對大型往復式引擎部門進行多年資本投資，將新引擎和售後零件的產能較 2023 年提高約一倍。

Based on increasing expectations of future demand growth, today, we are announcing an additional multiyear investment to further expand our large engine volume output capability to more than 125% compared to 2023.

基於對未來需求成長的日益增長的預期，今天，我們宣布追加一項多年期投資，以進一步將我們的大型引擎產量能力擴大到 2023 年的 125% 以上。

As I mentioned, we leverage these large engines across a variety of applications, including data centers, oil and gas, large mining trucks and distributed power generation.

正如我所提到的，我們在各種應用中利用這些大型發動機，包括資料中心、石油和天然氣、大型礦用卡車和分散式發電。

Moving on to sustainability.

轉向可持續發展。

We continue to invest in new products, technologies and services to help our customers achieve their climate-related objectives.

我們持續投資新產品、技術和服務，幫助我們的客戶實現與氣候相關的目標。

In September, we unveiled an innovative solution to help solve one of the most complex aspects of the mining industry's energy transition: energy management.

九月，我們推出了一項創新解決方案，幫助解決採礦業能源轉型中最複雜的問題之一：能源管理。

Cat Dynamic Energy Transfer, or DET, is a fully Caterpillar developed system that can transfer energy to both diesel electric and battery electric large mining trucks while they are working around a mine site.

Cat 動態能量傳輸 (DET) 是 Caterpillar 完全開發的系統，可在柴油電動和電池電動大型礦用卡車在礦場周圍作業時將能量傳輸到這些卡車。

It can also charge batteries while operating with increased speed on grade, improving operational efficiency and machine uptime.

它還可以在提高坡度運行速度的同時為電池充電，從而提高運行效率和機器正常運行時間。

Cat DET is comprised of a series of integrated elements, including a power module that converts energy from a mine site's power source, an electrified rail system to transmit the energy and a machine system to transfer the energy to the truck's powertrain.

Cat DET 由一系列整合元件組成，包括轉換礦場電源能量的電源模組、傳輸能量的電氣化鐵路系統以及將能量傳輸到卡車動力系統的機器系統。

Cat DET will integrate with the Cat MineStar Command for hauling solution, merging autonomy and electrification technologies to provide a holistic site solution.

Cat DET 將與 Cat MineStar Command 整合以提供運輸解決方案，將自主性和電氣化技術相結合，以提供整體現場解決方案。

We believe mine sites will benefit from enhanced efficiency with the integration of electrification and automation.

我們相信，透過電氣化和自動化的整合，礦場將受益於效率的提升。

When combined, these technologies will help miners achieve production targets, while simultaneously managing energy demands.

這些技術結合起來，將有助於礦工實現生產目標，同時管理能源需求。

This example highlights how we leverage our industry-leading technology through an integrated approach across our portfolio to help our customers build a better, more sustainable world.

這個例子強調了我們如何透過整個產品組合的整合方法來利用業界領先的技術來幫助我們的客戶建立一個更美好、更永續的世界。

With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

這樣，我就把它交給安德魯。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝吉姆，大家早安。

As usual, I'll begin with a high-level summary of the third quarter and then provide more detailed comments, including the performance of the segments.

像往常一樣，我將從第三季的高級摘要開始，然後提供更詳細的評論，包括各個部門的表現。

I'll then discuss the balance sheet and free cash flow before concluding with comments on our assumptions for the full year and the fourth quarter.

然後，我將討論資產負債表和自由現金流，最後對我們對全年和第四季度的假設進行評論。

Beginning on slide 8.

從投影片 8 開始。

Although sales and revenues were lower than we had expected, our adjusted operating profit margin was 20.0%, generally in line with what we had anticipated.

儘管銷售額和收入低於我們的預期，但調整後的營業利潤率為 20.0%，基本上符合我們的預期。

Adjusted profit per share was in line with our expectations, despite adjusted operating profit being impacted by the lower sales and revenues.

儘管調整後的營業利潤受到銷售額和收入下降的影響，但調整後的每股盈餘符合我們的預期。

I will highlight a few of the moving parts in a moment.

稍後我將重點放在一些活動部分。

As Jim mentioned, our full year margin expectations remain unchanged, and we continue to anticipate the adjusted operating profit margin will be above the top end of the target range, despite the slightly lower outlook for the top line.

正如吉姆所提到的，我們的全年利潤率預期保持不變，儘管營收前景略有下降，但我們仍然預計調整後的營業利潤率將高於目標範圍的上限。

Our expectations for adjusted profit per share remain unchanged versus our expectations at the time of our last earnings call.

與上次財報電話會議時的預期相比，我們對調整後每股盈餘的預期保持不變。

Also we have increased our expectations for ME&T free cash flow for the year, which we now anticipate will be near the top of our $5 billion to $10 billion target range.

此外，我們也提高了對今年 ME&T 自由現金流的預期，目前預計該現金流將接近 50 億至 100 億美元目標範圍的頂部。

In the third quarter, sales and revenues of $16.1 billion decreased by 4% compared to the prior year.

第三季銷售額和收入為 161 億美元，較上年同期下降 4%。

The adjusted operating profit margin of 20.0% was 80 basis points lower when compared to the prior year.

調整後營業利益率為 20.0%，較上年下降 80 個基點。

Profit per share was $5.06 in the third quarter compared to $5.45 in the third quarter of last year.

第三季每股獲利為 5.06 美元，去年第三季為 5.45 美元。

Restructuring costs were $0.11 in the quarter versus $0.07 in the prior year.

本季重組成本為 0.11 美元，而去年同期為 0.07 美元。

Adjusted profit per share was $5.17 in the quarter compared to $5.52 last year.

本季調整後每股利潤為 5.17 美元，去年同期為 5.52 美元。

Other income and expense was $119 million headwind versus the prior year, mostly driven by an unfavorable currency impact related to ME&T balance sheet translation.

其他收入和支出則與前一年相比為 1.19 億美元，主要是由於與 ME&T 資產負債表換算相關的不利貨幣影響所致。

We do not forecast the impact of foreign currency translation on our adjusted profit per share, so this acted as a headwind compared to our expectations for the quarter.

我們不預測外幣換算對調整後每股獲利的影響，因此與我們對本季的預期相比，這是一個阻力。

Excluding discrete items, the provision for income taxes in the third quarter in both 2023 and 2024 reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 22.5%.

不計離散項目，2023年及2024年第三季所得稅撥備反映的全球年度有效稅率為22.5%。

We recorded a discrete tax benefit, which we -- which had an $0.11 favorable impact within the quarter.

我們記錄了一項離散的稅收優惠，該優惠在本季度產生了 0.11 美元的有利影響。

We do not anticipate discrete items.

我們預計不會出現離散項目。

Finally, the year-over-year impact from the reduction in the average number of shares outstanding primarily due to share repurchases resulted in a favorable impact on adjusted profit per share of approximately $0.26 as compared to the third quarter of 2023.

最後，主要由於股票回購導致的平均已發行股票數量減少，與 2023 年第三季相比，對調整後每股利潤產生了約 0.26 美元的有利影響。

This was slightly better than we had expected.

這比我們預期的要好一些。

Moving to slide 9, where I'll discuss our top line results for the third quarter.

轉到幻燈片 9，我將在其中討論第三季的營收結果。

Sales and revenues decreased by 4% compared to the prior year, primarily impacted by lower sales volume as a result of lower sales to users and impacts from changes in dealer inventories.

銷售額和收入較上年下降 4%，主要是由於向用戶的銷售額減少導致銷量下降以及經銷商庫存變化的影響。

Total sales to users decreased by 6% as a 10% decrease for machines was partially offset by a 5% increase for Energy & Transportation.

用戶總銷售額下降了 6%，其中機器銷售額下降了 10%，但能源和運輸銷售額增加了 5%，部分抵消了銷售額的下降。

The impact from changes in total dealer inventories acted as a sales headwind of about $200 million in the quarter.

經銷商總庫存變化的影響對本季的銷售造成約 2 億美元的阻力。

For machines only, dealer inventory increased by about $100 million, a smaller increase than the $400 million increase in the prior year, but slightly above our expectations of being flattish to slightly lower.

僅就機器而言，經銷商庫存增加了約 1 億美元，增幅小於上一年的 4 億美元增幅，但略高於我們持平或略低的預期。

Services revenues increased versus the prior year as we had anticipated.

正如我們預期的那樣，服務收入較上年有所增長。

Moving to operating profit on slide 10.

前往投影片 10 上的營業利潤。

Operating profit in the third quarter decreased by 9% to $3.1 billion.

第三季營業利潤下降 9%，至 31 億美元。

Adjusted operating profit decreased by 8% to $3.2 billion, mainly due to the impact of lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price realization and manufacturing costs.

調整後營業利潤下降 8%，至 32 億美元，主要是由於銷量下降的影響，但部分被有利的價格實現和製造成本所抵消。

Since early 2022, price realization has been a strong -- has been strong and has often exceeded our expectations.

自 2022 年初以來，價格實現一直很強勁，而且經常超越我們的預期。

Over the past several quarters, we have highlighted that price will begin to moderate in the second half of this year.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們強調價格將在今年下半年開始放緩。

In the third quarter, this moderation began to occur as price realization was lower than previous quarters and generally in line with our expectations.

第三季度，這種放緩開始出現，因為價格實現低於前幾季度，整體符合我們的預期。

As I mentioned, for the third quarter, the adjusted operating profit margin was 20.0%, which was generally in line with our expectations.

正如我所提到的，第三季調整後營業利潤率為20.0%，整體符合我們的預期。

By segment, margin in Construction Industries and Resource Industries was slightly below our expectations on lower volume, while Energy & Transportation was about in line.

按細分市場劃分，建築業和資源業的利潤率因產量下降而略低於我們的預期，而能源和運輸業的利潤率基本上符合我們的預期。

Financial Products had a slightly stronger quarter than we had expected.

金融產品季度業績略強於我們的預期。

On to slide 11.

轉到投影片 11。

Construction Industries sales decreased by 9% in the third quarter to $6.3 billion, slightly below our expectations.

第三季建築業銷售額下降 9% 至 63 億美元，略低於我們的預期。

The decrease versus the prior year was primarily due to lower sales volume and unfavorable price realization.

與上年相比下降的主要原因是銷量下降和價格實現不利。

The decrease in sales volume was mainly driven by lower sales of equipment to end users.

銷量下降主要是由於向最終用戶銷售的設備減少。

Changes in dealer inventories also acted as a slight headwind to sales.

經銷商庫存的變化也對銷售產生了輕微的阻力。

By region, Construction Industries sales in North America decreased by 11%.

按地區劃分，北美建築業銷售額下降 11%。

In Latin America sales increased by 19%.

拉丁美洲的銷售額成長了 19%。

Sales in the EAME region decreased by 15%.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額下降了 15%。

In Asia/Pacific sales declined by 12%.

亞太地區的銷售額下降了 12%。

Third quarter profit for Construction Industries was $1.5 billion, a 20% decrease versus the prior year.

建築業第三季獲利為 15 億美元，較上年下降 20%。

This is mainly due to the profit impact of lower sales volume and unfavorable price realization.

這主要是由於銷量下降和不利的價格實現對利潤的影響。

The segment's margin of 23.4% was a decrease of 300 basis points versus the prior year.

該部門的利潤率為 23.4%，比前一年下降了 300 個基點。

Turning to slide 12.

轉到投影片 12。

Resource Industries sales decreased by 10% in the third quarter to $3.0 billion, which was slightly below our expectations.

Resource Industries 第三季銷售額下降 10% 至 30 億美元，略低於我們的預期。

The decline versus the prior year was primarily due to lower sales volume, mainly driven by lower sales of equipment to end users given the challenging comparison to the prior year.

與上年相比下降的主要原因是銷量下降，而銷量下降主要是由於與上年相比充滿挑戰，因此向最終用戶銷售的設備銷量下降。

Third quarter profit for Resource Industries decreased by 15% versus the prior year to $619 million.

資源產業第三季獲利較上年同期下降 15%，至 6.19 億美元。

This was mainly due to the profit impact of lower sales volume.

這主要是由於銷量下降對利潤的影響。

The segment's margin of 20.4% was a decrease of 140 basis points versus the prior year.

該部門的利潤率為 20.4%，比前一年下降了 140 個基點。

Now on slide 13.

現在在投影片 13 上。

Energy & Transportation sales increased by 5% in the third quarter to $7.2 billion, slightly lower than we had expected driven by the timing of deliveries.

第三季能源與運輸銷售額成長 5%，達到 72 億美元，略低於我們因交付時間所致的預期。

The increase versus the prior year was primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume, including higher intersegment sales.

與前一年相比的成長主要是由於有利的價格實現和更高的銷量，包括更高的部門間銷售額。

By application, power generation sales increased by 26%.

按用途分，發電量增加26%。

Transportation sales were higher by 3%.

運輸銷售成長了 3%。

Oil and gas sales decreased by 1%, and industrial sales decreased by 16%.

石油和天然氣銷售額下降1%，工業銷售額下降16%。

Third quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 21% versus the prior year to $1.4 billion.

能源與運輸部門第三季獲利較上年同期成長 21%，達 14 億美元。

The increase was mainly due to favorable price realization.

這一增長主要是由於有利的價格實現。

The segment's margin of 19.9% was an increase of 270 basis points versus the prior year.

該部門的利潤率為 19.9%，比前一年增加了 270 個基點。

Moving to slide 14.

轉到投影片 14。

Financial Products revenues increased by 6% to about $1 billion, primarily due to higher average earning assets driven by North America and higher average financing rates across all regions.

金融產品收入成長 6%，達到約 10 億美元，主要是由於北美地區平均收益資產的增加以及所有地區平均融資利率的提高。

Segment profit increased by 21% to $246 million.

部門利潤成長 21%，達到 2.46 億美元。

This was mainly due to a favorable impact from equity securities and a lower provision for credit losses.

這主要是由於股本證券的有利影響以及信用損失撥備的減少。

Our customers' financial health is strong.

我們客戶的財務狀況良好。

Past dues remain near historic lows at 1.74% in the quarter, down 22 basis points versus the prior year.

本季逾期未付款項仍接近歷史低點，為 1.74%，較上年同期下降 22 個基點。

Our allowance rate was 0.87%, our lowest on record.

我們的津貼率為 0.87%，是有記錄以來的最低水準。

Business activity at Cat Financial remains healthy.

Cat Financial 的業務活動保持健康。

Our retail new business volume increased by 17% versus the prior year, supported by our financing packages for customers choosing to buy Caterpillar equipment.

在我們為選擇購買卡特彼勒設​​備的客戶提供的融資方案的支持下，我們的零售新業務量比上年增長了 17%。

Though Caterpillar's retail machine sales volume was lower, proportionally more sales are being financed through Cat Financial, which highlights the attractiveness of the financing options we are offering to our customers.

儘管 Caterpillar 的零售機器銷量較低，但透過 Cat Financial 融資的銷售額比例有所增加，這突顯了我們為客戶提供的融資選擇的吸引力。

We also continue to see healthy demand for used equipment, and inventories remain at low levels.

我們也繼續看到對二手設備的健康需求，庫存仍處於較低水準。

Conversion rates are also strong as customers choose to buy equipment at the end of their lease term.

由於客戶選擇在租賃期結束時購買設備，轉換率也很高。

Moving on to slide 15.

繼續看投影片 15。

We generated about $2.7 billion in ME&T free cash flow in the quarter -- third quarter and deployed about $1.5 billion in share repurchases and dividends.

我們在第三季的 ME&T 自由現金流中產生了約 27 億美元，並部署了約 15 億美元的股票回購和股息。

Our balance sheet remains strong with an enterprise cash balance of $5.6 billion.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，企業現金餘額為 56 億美元。

In addition, we hold $1.8 billion in slightly longer dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash.

此外，我們也持有 18 億美元的期限稍長的流動性有價證券，以提高現金收益率。

Now on slide 16, I'll share our high-level assumptions for the full year.

現在，在第 16 張投影片上，我將分享我們對全年的高層假設。

For the full year, we have updated our outlook to reflect sales and revenues that are slightly lower than our expectations at the time of our last earnings call driven by lower-than-expected third quarter sales and an update to our expectations for dealer rental fleet loading in Construction Industries.

對於全年，我們更新了我們的展望，以反映銷售和收入略低於我們上次財報電話會議時的預期，這是由於第三季度銷售低於預期以及我們對經銷商租賃車隊的預期更新所致建築業的裝載。

We continue to anticipate services growth in 2024.

我們繼續預期 2024 年服務業將會成長。

As I mentioned earlier, our full year expectations for adjusted operating profit margin and adjusted profit per share remain unchanged compared to our last earnings call.

正如我之前提到的，與上次財報電話會議相比，我們對調整後營業利潤率和調整後每股利潤的全年預期保持不變。

We continue to expect adjusted operating profit margin to be above the top end of the target range.

我們繼續預期調整後的營業利潤率將高於目標範圍的上限。

In addition, we are increasing our expectations for ME&T free cash flow for the year, which we now anticipate to be near the top of our $5 billion to $10 billion target range.

此外，我們也提高了對今年 ME&T 自由現金流的預期，目前預計該現金流將接近 50 億至 100 億美元目標範圍的頂部。

To assist you with your modeling for the full year, we now anticipate CapEx of around $2 billion and restructuring costs of approximately $400 million.

為了幫助您進行全年建模，我們現在預計資本支出約為 20 億美元，重組成本約為 4 億美元。

Our expectation for the global annual effective tax rate, excluding discrete items, remains at 22.5%.

我們對全球年度有效稅率（不包括離散項目）的預期仍為 22.5%。

Turning to slide 17.

轉到投影片 17。

I'll provide a few comments on the fourth quarter, starting with the top line.

我將從頂線開始對第四季度提供一些評論。

We expect slightly lower sales and revenues in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year, impacted by lower machine sales to users versus a strong comparison.

我們預計第四季度的銷售額和收入與去年同期相比將略有下降，這是由於向用戶銷售的機器銷售與強勁的比較相比有所下降的影響。

On machine dealer inventory, our planning assumptions include the expectation that dealers will reduce their inventories in the fourth quarter, while balancing their need to be prepared for 2025.

在機器經銷商庫存方面，我們的規劃假設包括預計經銷商將在第四季度減少庫存，同時平衡為 2025 年做好準備的需要。

The magnitude of the decline of machine dealer inventory is expected to be less than the $1.4 billion decrease we saw in the fourth quarter of 2023.

機器經銷商庫存下降的幅度預計將小於 2023 年第四季 14 億美元的下降幅度。

For perspective, we expect machine dealer inventory to end the year around same level as year-end 2023.

從長遠來看，我們預計今年年底機器經銷商庫存將與 2023 年底持平。

Also the ongoing benefit of our services initiatives is expected to positively impact sales in the fourth quarter.

此外，我們服務計劃的持續效益預計將對第四季度的銷售產生積極影響。

By segment in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year, we anticipate a sales decrease in Construction Industries.

與去年同期相比，第四季按細分市場劃分，我們預期建築業的銷售額將下降。

This is impacted by lower sales to users, which Jim mentioned, along with unfavorable price realization.

吉姆提到，這是受到用戶銷售下降以及不利的價格實現的影響。

In Resource Industries, we expect slightly lower sales impacted by lower sales to users versus a strong fourth quarter of 2023.

在資源產業，我們預期由於用戶銷售額下降，與 2023 年第四季的強勁表現相比，銷售額將略有下降。

In Energy & Transportation, we anticipate slightly higher sales versus the prior year, supported by power generation.

在能源和交通領域，我們預計在發電的支持下銷售額將略高於去年。

Enterprise margin in the fourth quarter is expected to trend lower compared to the third quarter, following the typical seasonable pattern.

預計第四季的企業利潤率將低於第三季度，遵循典型的季節性模式。

However, versus the prior year, we expect a modestly higher adjusted operating profit margin, despite lower sales.

然而，與前一年相比，儘管銷售額下降，但我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將小幅提高。

We anticipate favorable manufacturing costs and lower SG&A and R&D expenses will more than offset the profit impact of lower sales volume.

我們預計有利的製造成本以及較低的銷售、行政管理和研發費用將足以抵銷銷售下降對利潤的影響。

Lower SG&A and R&D expenses are primarily driven by the benefit of lower short-term incentive compensation versus a higher expense in the prior year quarter.

SG&A 和研發費用較低主要是因為短期激勵薪酬較低，而去年同期費用較高。

Price realization from machines is expected to trend lower as the pricing environment continues to normalize, though price in Energy & Transportation should act as a partial offset.

隨著定價環境繼續正常化，機器的價格預計將呈下降趨勢，儘管能源和運輸的價格應該會起到部分抵消作用。

Regarding price expectations for machines, it is important to note that discounts to dealers occur through post-sales merchandising programs, which impact our results over time.

關於機器的價格預期，重要的是要注意，經銷商的折扣是透過售後銷售計劃進行的，這會隨著時間的推移影響我們的業績。

This includes financing support from Cat Financial, which is an effective way of supporting our customers, and we recover a portion of that support over the life of the deal.

這包括來自 Cat Financial 的融資支持，這是支持我們客戶的有效方式，我們會在交易期間收回部分支持。

Let me explain.

讓我解釋一下。

Based on the current level of price discounting support, we reserve for the anticipated payments to dealers for these merchandising programs.

根據目前的價格折扣支援水平，我們為這些銷售計劃預留了向經銷商支付的預期款項。

At times, there is a lag between the timing of the invoice from the dealer and when the dealer invoices the customer, which impacts the reserve.

有時，經銷商開立發票的時間與經銷商向客戶開立發票的時間之間存在滯後，這會影響準備金。

Over the next few quarters, we expect the impact from these merchandising programs to drive a headwind to machine price realization as we continue to adjust the reserve to reflect the current level of price discounting support.

在接下來的幾個季度中，我們預計這些商品銷售計劃的影響將對機器價格實現帶來阻力，因為我們將繼續調整儲備金以反映當前的價格折扣支援水準。

By segment in the fourth quarter, in Construction Industries, we anticipate lower margin compared to the prior year, primarily due to unfavorable price realization, partially offset by favorable manufacturing costs.

以建築業第四季的細分市場來看，我們預期利潤率將低於上年，這主要是由於不利的價格實現，但有利的製造成本部分抵消了這一影響。

In Resource Industries, we anticipate lower margin in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year, mainly due to lower volume and prioritization of strategic investments around services growth and AACE, which is autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity and digital, and electrification.

在資源產業，我們預計第四季度的利潤率將低於上年，這主要是由於圍繞服務成長和 AACE（自主、替代燃料、互聯互通、數位化和電氣化）的策略投資數量和優先順序下降。

Favorable manufacturing costs should act as a partial offset.

有利的製造成本應該可以部分抵銷。

In Energy & Transportation, we expect a higher margin versus the prior year, primarily impacted by favorable price realization.

在能源和運輸領域，我們預計利潤率將高於上年，這主要是受到有利的價格實現的影響。

So turning to slide 18.

所以轉向幻燈片 18。

Let me summarize.

讓我總結一下。

Although sales and revenues were lower than we had expected, adjusted operating profit margin and adjusted profit per share were generally in line with our expectations.

儘管銷售額和收入低於我們的預期，但調整後的營業利潤率和調整後的每股利潤總體符合我們的預期。

We now anticipate our top line for the full year will be slightly below our prior estimate.

我們現在預計全年的營收將略低於我們先前的估計。

Our backlog increased slightly and remains at a very healthy level.

我們的積壓略有增加，並保持在非常健康的水平。

Our expectations for full year adjusted operating profit margin and adjusted profit per share remain unchanged compared to a quarter ago.

我們對全年調整後營業利潤率和調整後每股利潤的預期與上季相比保持不變。

We continue to expect adjusted operating profit margin to be above the top end of the target range for the full year based on our expected sales levels.

根據我們的預期銷售水平，我們仍然預期調整後的營業利潤率將高於全年目標範圍的上限。

We are now increasing our expectations for ME&T free cash flow, which we anticipate to be near the top of our target range for the full year.

我們現在正在提高對 ME&T 自由現金流的預期，預計該現金流將接近全年目標範圍的頂部。

Our team executed well in the quarter, and our results continue to benefit -- to reflect the benefit of the diversity of our end markets and the disciplined execution of our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

我們的團隊在本季度表現良好，我們的業績繼續受益——反映了我們終端市場多樣性的好處以及我們長期獲利成長策略的嚴格執行。

And with that, we'll now take your questions.

接下來，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

Andrew, I'm wondering if we could just take a step back.

安德魯，我想知道我們是否可以退後一步。

Your margin performance this year is really outstanding relative to the long-term targets.

相對於長期目標，你們今年的利潤率表現確實非常出色。

And as you see it, is this level of outperformance sustainable?

如您所見，這種出色的表現水準是否可持續？

Or should we take the pricing headwinds that we spoke about in the prepared remarks to mean that you folks are evaluating the optimal balance between margins and market share?

或者我們應該將我們在準備好的評論中談到的定價逆風視為你們正在評估利潤率和市場份額之間的最佳平衡？

Well, Jerry, just as a reminder, our primary measure of profitable growth is increasing absolute OPACC dollars.

好吧，傑瑞，提醒一下，我們衡量利潤成長的主要指標是增加絕對 OPACC 美元。

That's something we're very focused on.

這是我們非常關注的事情。

Obviously, we're focused always on being competitive in the various markets that we serve.

顯然，我們始終致力於在我們服務的各個市場中保持競爭力。

And of course, we serve a diverse group of industries around the world.

當然，我們為世界各地的不同行業提供服務。

So what's happening in one market with one segment is it can be very different than what's happening in another segment just from a competitive perspective.

因此，僅從競爭的角度來看，一個細分市場的某個細分市場所發生的情況可能與另一個細分市場所發生的情況非常不同。

So again, we're focused on remaining competitive.

所以，我們再次強調保持競爭力。

We do provide margin targets, obviously, to give investors and analysts a sense of where we'll be around margins, and we'll continue to do that.

顯然，我們確實提供了利潤率目標，讓投資者和分析師了解我們的利潤率將達到什麼水平，我們將繼續這樣做。

So again, we're driving to remain competitive.

因此，我們再次努力保持競爭力。

We're driving to increase absolute OPACC dollars.

我們正在努力增加 OPACC 的絕對資金。

And you can use our margin target ranges to get a sense of where we expect to be.

您可以使用我們的利潤目標範圍來了解我們的預期目標。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通。

My question is on the Resource Industries segment.

我的問題是關於資源產業領域的。

Volumes in that segment has been down for about a year now.

該領域的銷量已經下降了大約一年。

And I think you said the rate of decline you expect to get better in the fourth quarter.

我認為您說過您預計第四季度的下降速度會有所改善。

I'm curious, how are you planning for this segment for 2025?

我很好奇，您在 2025 年對這個細分市場有何規劃？

Do you expect demand or sales to stabilize near term or it could get better or maybe stay weak for a few more quarters?

您預計需求或銷售短期內會穩定，還是會好轉，或者可能在接下來的幾季內保持疲軟？

Well, thanks for your question.

嗯，謝謝你的提問。

The full year drop, as we talked about in previous calls, is really primarily due to a couple of products: articulated trucks and off-highway trucks.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中談到的，全年的下降實際上主要是由於以下幾種產品造成的：鉸接式卡車和非公路卡車。

And we had a strong backlog there that we had to work our way through, and that's created a comp issue for us in Resource Industries this year.

我們那裡有大量的積壓，我們必須努力解決，這為我們今年的資源產業帶來了一個補償問題。

Having said that, we -- obviously, we're not going to give a guidance around 2025.

話雖如此，我們顯然不會在 2025 年左右給出指導。

We'll talk about 2025 in January.

我們將在一月份討論 2025 年。

But certainly, we continue to be quite bullish on the long-term aspects for mining, just given all the commodities that need to be produced to support the energy transition.

但當然，考慮到支持能源轉型所需生產的所有商品，我們仍然對採礦業的長期前景感到非常看好。

Our mining customers use our products to produce those products, things like copper.

我們的採礦客戶使用我們的產品來生產這些產品，例如銅。

So our customers are displaying capital discipline, but we certainly are bullish about the long term.

因此，我們的客戶正在表現出資本紀律，但我們當然看好長期發展。

We do expect higher services revenues because the utilization of our products is quite high.

我們確實期望更高的服務收入，因為我們產品的使用率相當高。

The age of the fleet is relatively elevated, and the number of parked trucks is relatively low.

車隊車齡相對較高，停放卡車數量相對較少。

So those are all positive things.

所以這些都是正面的事情。

One of the things that we also see is a lot of inquiry activity and order activity around large mining trucks.

我們還看到的一件事是圍繞大型礦用卡車的大量詢價活動和訂單活動。

So we're pleased with that.

所以我們對此感到滿意。

So that's one of the things that also is the reason for optimism as well.

所以這也是樂觀的原因之一。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

I was wondering if you could expand a little bit more on what you're hearing from your dealers and customers around in terms of Construction Industries, particularly in terms of orders, how is that kind of shaking out for that segment specifically, and then more so qualitatively what you're hearing into 2025 in terms of sentiment and kind of inclinations to buy kind of heading into that year versus the macro that remains a little bit uncertain.

我想知道您是否可以詳細介紹一下您從經銷商和客戶那裡聽到的建築行業方面的情況，特別是訂單方面的情況，具體來說，該細分市場的情況如何，然後更多因此，從定性的角度來看，您在2025 年聽到的情緒和購買傾向與2025 年的宏觀經濟狀況相比仍然有點不確定。

Yes.

是的。

Well, a couple of things.

嗯，有幾件事。

Firstly, in the quarter, as I mentioned earlier, the primary reasons for the decline quarter-to-quarter was based on lower rental fleet loading by our dealers.

首先，正如我之前提到的，本季季度環比下降的主要原因是我們的經銷商租賃車隊負載較低。

And of course, it's important to note that our dealers' rental revenue continues to increase.

當然，值得注意的是我們經銷商的租金收入持續成長。

So it's really an issue of them having lower loading into their rental fleets.

因此，這確實是他們租賃車隊負載較低的問題。

In addition to that, we had a large pipeline deal in the third quarter of last year, which obviously didn't reoccur, and that created an issue as well.

除此之外，我們在去年第三季進行了一項大型管道交易，但顯然沒有再發生，這也造成了一個問題。

From a positive perspective, we expect government-related infrastructure to remain healthy.

從正面的角度來看，我們預期政府相關基礎設施將保持健康。

If we look at some facts from ARTBA, which is the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, they noted that only 27% of the $348 billion in total IIJA funding has been spent as of August of 2024.

如果我們看一下美國道路和交通建設者協會 ARTBA 的一些事實，他們指出，截至 2024 年 8 月，IIJA 總資金 3,480 億美元中只有 27% 已支出。

About 47% of it has been committed, and only 27% of it's been spent.

大約 47% 已經承諾，但只有 27% 被花費。

So that's quite healthy as well.

所以這也是非常健康的。

So there's a lot of infrastructure activity out there that our dealers are working with their customers to help support.

因此，我們的經銷商正在與客戶合作以幫助支援大量基礎設施活動。

So we feel good about that as well.

所以我們對此也感覺很好。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

傑米庫克 (Jamie Cook)，Truist 證券公司。

And I'm sorry, I'm flipping between multiple calls.

抱歉，我正在多個電話之間切換。

But Jim, I think you said during the prepared remarks that you guys are adding incremental large engine capacity relative to your previous announcement.

但是吉姆，我想你在準備好的發言中說過，相對於之前的聲明，你們正在增加增量大型引擎容量。

So I guess my question is, is there any way you can frame the capital investment?

所以我想我的問題是，有什麼方法可以框架資本投資嗎？

And more importantly, what you think the longer-term revenue opportunity for Caterpillar as you continue to increase capacity here?

更重要的是，您認為隨著您持續增加產能，卡特彼勒的長期收入機會是什麼？

And then sort of what does that imply for margins for this segment?

那麼這對於該細分市場的利潤率意味著什麼？

Again, we're adding a lot of capacity, but the margins are below Resource and Construction.

同樣，我們增加了大量產能，但利潤率低於資源和建設。

So should margins be structurally higher as volumes ramp?

那麼，隨著銷售量的增加，利潤率是否應該在結構上更高？

Thanks for your question, Jamie.

謝謝你的提問，傑米。

And we haven't quantified the amount of capital investment in that capacity increase, but we did talk about the fact that we expect with this incremental investment that we will have increased our large engine volume output capability to more than 25 -- 125% compared to 2023.

我們還沒有量化產能增加的資本投資金額，但我們確實談到了這樣一個事實，即我們預計透過這一增量投資，我們將把我們的大型引擎排氣量輸出能力提高到 25% - 125% 以上。到2023 年。

And of course, those engines are used across a wide variety of applications.

當然，這些引擎可用於多種應用。

And certainly, what's driving the demand today is data centers.

當然，當今推動需求的是資料中心。

We sell backup generator sets for data centers.

我們銷售資料中心的備用發電機組。

But we're also quite excited about the opportunity going forward for what we call distributed generation.

但我們也對分散式發電的未來機會感到非常興奮。

Data centers, of course, don't just create an opportunity for us for backup generator sets.

當然，資料中心不僅為我們創造了備用發電機組的機會。

But of course, the base load requirements of -- on the grid is going up as well because of data centers, and there's much has been written about that.

當然，由於資料中心的存在，電網的基本負載需求也在上升，並且已經有許多關於這方面的文章。

And so just given the fact that there's been relative underinvestment in traditional power plants over the last few years, the fact that more renewables have been added to the grid, which are intermittent in nature, and the fact that now we have data centers increasing base load requirements on the grid, we think that creates an opportunity for us for both our gas turbine generator sets and our reciprocating generator sets in what we call distributed power applications distributed across the grid.

因此，考慮到過去幾年傳統發電廠的投資相對不足，電網中增加了更多可再生能源，而電網本質上是間歇性的，而且現在我們的資料中心基數不斷增加電網上的負載需求，我們認為這為我們的燃氣渦輪發電機組和往復式發電機組在我們所謂的分佈在整個電網的分散式電力應用中創造了機會。

And our gas turbines and gen sets can burn a wide variety of fuel, natural gas, biofuels, hydrogen blends.

我們的燃氣渦輪機和發電機組可以燃燒各種燃料、天然氣、生物燃料、混合氫。

So we're quite excited about that long-term opportunity that is starting to manifest itself.

因此，我們對開始顯現的長期機會感到非常興奮。

And to your question about margins, certainly, you saw a nice margin increase quarter-to-quarter in Energy & Transportation and just because of mix and because of increased volume and just the fact that business should be higher, again, we have the opportunity to increase margins in Energy & Transportation going forward, but I'm not going to quantify that at this point.

至於你關於利潤率的問題，當然，你看到能源和運輸領域的利潤率逐季度大幅增長，這只是因為混合、銷量增加以及業務應該更高的事實，我們再次有機會增加未來能源和運輸的利潤，但目前我不打算量化這一點。

But certainly, it's an opportunity.

但可以肯定的是，這是一個機會。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索，Evercore ISI。

Yes, looking, as everybody, more breadcrumbs for 2025.

是的，和大家一樣，我們正在尋找 2025 年的更多線索。

My question, I guess, two pieces.

我想我的問題有兩個部分。

The comment about the drag, right, the lag of discounting for CI, it will show itself more as some of those orders get shipped into '25.

關於 CI 折扣滯後的評論，隨著其中一些訂單被運送到 25 年，它會更加明顯。

Can you give us a sense of just where we stand right now?

您能否讓我們了解一下我們現在的處境？

Let's assume no further deterioration maybe in CI pricing.

我們假設 CI 定價不會進一步惡化。

But what we're booking right now at those discounts, what is the most acute period in '25 that, that shows up?

但我們現在以這些折扣預訂的是什麼，25 年最嚴重的時期是什麼？

Essentially, it's how long are these orders out for?

本質上，問題是這些訂單需要多長時間？

Is this second quarter, third quarter next year that should be the most acute drag from the incremental discounting right now?

明年第二季、第三季是否應該是目前增量折扣帶來的最嚴重的拖累？

And then on the positive side, you kind of just said you didn't want to quantify it.

從積極的一面來看，你只是說你不想量化它。

But the investments in E&T, the large engines, which I know also go to large mining trucks, but let's think of it as E&T in particular right now, is there any way to think about regular throughput improvement?

但對E&T、大型引擎的投資，我知道也用於大型礦用卡車，但我們現在特別將其視為E&T，有沒有什麼方法可以考慮定期提高吞吐量？

Any capacity additions that can show up in '25 to give us a sense of at least your throughput capability '25 versus '24, just some order of magnitude?

任何可以在 25 年出現的容量增加，至少能讓我們了解您的吞吐量能力 25 與 24，只是某個數量級？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for your question, David.

謝謝你的提問，大衛。

So one of the things we talked about when we announced the initial investment to increase our large engine capacity is that would increase over a 4-year period.

因此，當我們宣布增加大型引擎產能的初始投資時，我們討論的一件事是，該投資將在四年內增加。

And so we haven't laid it out year by year, and it's -- again, it's a 4-year increase.

所以我們並沒有逐年列出，它是 - 再次，這是四年的增長。

So I'm afraid I'm not going to be able to answer your question to give a sense of additional output for 2025, and I'll let Andrew answer your question about margins.

因此，我恐怕無法回答您關於 2025 年額外產出的問題，我將讓安德魯回答您有關利潤率的問題。

Yes.

是的。

So on the impact of pricing, this is one of those accounting quirks that we sometimes have.

因此，就定價的影響而言，這是我們有時會遇到的會計怪癖之一。

The way it works, David, is the accrual is done on a historic 12-month basis to build up the reserve.

David，其運作方式是按照歷史性的 12 個月進行累積，以建立儲備金。

So potentially, this could actually impact us for several quarters.

因此，這實際上可能會對我們產生幾個季度的影響。

It is -- as the merchandising programs increase, you then have the amount that's in inventory that you have to effectively catch up on over time, and that's done over a 12-month period.

隨著銷售計劃的增加，您的庫存量就必須隨著時間的推移而有效地補充，而這需要在 12 個月的時間內完成。

So generally, it will be for the next several quarters, but we are starting to see the merchandising programs hit more normal levels now.

一般來說，這將是未來幾個季度的情況，但我們現在開始看到銷售計劃達到了更正常的水平。

And obviously, that creates a little bit of a headwind on price.

顯然，這對價格造成了一些阻力。

We'll probably quantify it a little bit more when we get to 2025 guidance for you in January.

當我們在一月份為您提供 2025 年指導時，我們可能會對其進行更多量化。

Michael Feniger, Bank of America.

麥可費尼格，美國銀行。

I would just love to get a sense on the oil and gas side.

我只是想了解一下石油和天然氣方面的情況。

Obviously, retail sales were up a little bit.

顯然，零售額略有上升。

You talked about the differentiation of what you're seeing in terms of the recip side and well services versus maybe gas compression, some of the other areas.

您談到了您所看到的在配方和油井服務方面與天然氣壓縮以及其他一些領域之間的差異。

Just when we look into 2025, if we see more LNG permitting in the Gulf, is that positive for the Solar business?

就在我們展望 2025 年時，如果我們看到海灣地區獲得更多液化天然氣許可，這對太陽能業務是否有利？

Do we need a higher nat gas price?

我們需要更高的天然氣價格嗎？

Obviously, the oil price has been kind of stuck in a range.

顯然，油價一直處於一個區間。

So just curious how we're thinking with oil and gas being very strong and up in '24.

所以只是好奇我們如何看待石油和天然氣在 24 年的強勁成長。

You kind of made some comments on Q4.

您對第四季度發表了一些評論。

What do we kind of think about the breadcrumbs for '25 for that business?

我們對 25 年這項業務的麵包屑有何看法？

So again, I'll resist giving the guidance for 2025, but I'll just give you some color around the industry.

再說一次，我不會給 2025 年的指導，但我只會給你一些有關行業的資訊。

Certainly, we mentioned the fact that well servicing continues to be a bit weak.

當然，我們提到了油井服務仍然有點薄弱的事實。

Gas compression for recip for Cat oil and gas, we expect to be up for the total year, but a bit of softening in the fourth quarter.

Cat 石油和天然氣配方的氣體壓縮，我們預計全年會有所成長，但第四季會有所疲軟。

On solar turbines in oil and gas, the business is quite strong, a lot of booking activity, a lot of quotation activity, both for gas compression, but also for international projects as well.

在石油和天然氣領域的太陽能渦輪機方面，業務相當強勁，預訂活動很多，報價活動也很多，既適用於氣體壓縮，也適用於國際項目。

So again, Solar business is quite robust, and I've described recip.

再說一次，太陽能業務相當強勁，我已經描述了秘訣。

It remains to be seen, obviously, if LNG exports then are again -- start again, if that permitting process starts again, I would think certainly medium, long term, that would be a positive for us.

顯然，還有待觀察，如果液化天然氣出口再次啟動，如果許可程序再次啟動，我認為從中長期來看，這對我們來說肯定是積極的。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer & Co.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默公司

Jim, I wanted to come back to the CI competitive dynamics, particularly in North America.

吉姆，我想回到 CI 的競爭動態，特別是在北美。

You've called out the re-fleeting issue a couple of quarters in a row now, but you are at the higher end of the inventory range.

您現在已經連續幾個季度提出了重新流動問題，但您處於庫存範圍的高端。

Just wondering, can you help us understand how much maybe incremental international competition you're seeing, given the depreciation of the yen and just continued disappointment in China activity?

只是想知道，鑑於日圓貶值以及對中國活動的持續失望，您能否幫助我們了解您所看到的國際競爭可能會增加多少？

Just anything you're seeing on a shift in the competitive landscape there?

您看到那裡的競爭格局發生了什麼變化嗎？

Well, certainly, we're very focused on remaining competitive, and the competitive situation continually changes.

當然，我們非常注重保持競爭力，而且競爭情勢不斷變化。

So I could -- every year I've been in this job, the -- and before that, the competitive situation always changes.

所以我可以——我從事這份工作的每一年——在此之前，競爭情況總是在變化。

But we are quite confident in our ability to continue to compete.

但我們對繼續競爭的能力充滿信心。

We continue to invest in new technologies to allow -- as an example to allow operators to more effectively operate their machines as an example, taking a less experienced operator and through technology, allowing them to operate more like an experienced operator.

我們不斷投資新技術，以允許——以讓操作員更有效地操作他們的機器為例，以經驗不足的操作員為例，透過技術，讓他們更像經驗豐富的操作員一樣操作。

We continue to invest in our digital capabilities.

我們繼續投資我們的數位能力。

Our dealers continue to invest in their capabilities as well.

我們的經銷商也繼續投資他們的能力。

So we're quite confident in our ability to continue to compete and be successful.

因此，我們對繼續競爭並取得成功的能力充滿信心。

The competitive situation, there are currency changes that occur.

競爭的情況，有貨幣的變化發生。

And you're right, the yen has been relatively weak and that, for a period of time, can create a bit of a tailwind for a competitor, but those things change over time as currency -- as currencies change.

你是對的，日圓相對疲軟，在一段時間內，這可以為競爭對手創造一點順風，但隨著時間的推移，隨著貨幣的變化，這些事情也會發生變化。

But again, what we're really focused on is providing that long-term value to our customers by continuing to invest in things like technology, our digital capabilities, service capabilities and all the rest.

但同樣，我們真正關注的是透過持續投資於技術、數位能力、服務能力等，為我們的客戶提供長期價值。

And can I just make a comment on your comment about the higher end of the inventory range?

我可以對您對庫存範圍高端的評論發表評論嗎？

One of the things just to remember is dealer inventory is a complex thing.

要記住的一件事是經銷商庫存是一件複雜的事情。

We have 150 dealers around the world.

我們在全球擁有 150 家經銷商。

We have 3 business segments.

我們有 3 個業務部門。

We have lots of different products.

我們有很多不同的產品。

There are some actual product lines where actually dealers holding more inventory would actually be a good thing from a competitive perspective, not necessarily always reducing.

在一些實際的產品線中，從競爭的角度來看，經銷商持有更多庫存實際上是一件好事，而不一定總是減少庫存。

So it's not necessarily about them burning it down.

所以這並不一定是他們燒掉它。

We obviously work with them through that process where they do need to think about a dealer inventory reduction, and that's why we're anticipating in the fourth quarter.

顯然，我們在整個過程中與他們合作，他們確實需要考慮減少經銷商庫存，這就是我們預計第四季的原因。

But there are also some business segments where, actually at times, we would like dealers probably to hold a little bit more for competitive reasons as well.

但實際上，有時我們也希望經銷商出於競爭原因多持有一些業務部門的股份。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

史蒂文費雪，瑞銀。

Jim, you mentioned the 4-year process on power gen capacity expansion, but the power gen growth actually accelerated to about 26% year-over-year from 15% in Q2.

Jim，您提到了發電產能擴張的四年過程，但發電量成長實際上年比從第二季的15%加速到26%左右。

So with being at capacity on some of the bigger projects -- products, can you talk about what drove that acceleration?

那麼，隨著一些更大的項目——產品的產能的增加，您能談談是什麼推動了這種加速嗎？

And to what extent is that maybe a function of shifting some of your oil and gas engines into power gen?

這在多大程度上可能是把一些石油和天然氣引擎轉變為發電的功能？

And should we expect some sort of quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in that rate of growth in power gen going forward based on comps and how you are able to shift capacity around?

我們是否應該預期基於比較以及如何轉移產能的未來發電成長率會出現某種季度波動？

Yes, just to be -- thanks for your question.

是的，只是——謝謝你的問題。

Just to be clear, when we ship a generator set to an oil and gas customer or for an oil and gas application, we count that as oil and gas, not power generation, just to be clear.

需要明確的是，當我們將發電機組運送給石油和天然氣客戶或用於石油和天然氣應用時，我們將其視為石油和天然氣，而不是發電，只是需要明確。

So a variety of reasons for the increase.

所以增加的原因是多種多樣的。

Certainly, of course, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we do have the ability to reallocate.

當然，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們確實有能力重新分配。

If the demand for oil and gas is not there and we have excess capacity, we can shift those engines from oil and gas to power generation and back and forth, depending on the needs of our customers.

如果對石油和天然氣的需求不存在且我們的產能過剩，我們可以根據客戶的需求將這些引擎從石油和天然氣轉移到發電，然後來回轉移。

So that's there.

就這樣。

Solar power generation, again, that Solar business and power generation is also increasing, and that also had an impact on it as well.

太陽能發電，同樣，太陽能業務和發電量也在增加，這也對其產生了影響。

And we've been, of course, working in our reciprocating engine facilities to increase capacity.

當然，我們一直在往復式引擎設施中努力提高產能。

Yes, the major impact will come later because of the big capital investment we're making.

是的，由於我們正在進行大量資本投資，重大影響將在稍後出現。

But we're working on increasing throughput and getting more out of our existing facilities as well as the demand goes up.

但我們正在努力提高吞吐量，並從現有設施中獲得更多收益，同時需求也在增加。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

凱爾門格斯，花旗集團。

I was hoping if you could discuss inventories a little bit more.

我希望你能多討論一下庫存問題。

So this planned reduction in dealer inventories in 4Q, is that enough to make you guys feel pretty good about machine inventories heading into next year?

那麼，第四季經銷商庫存的計畫減少是否足以讓你們對明年的機器庫存感到滿意？

And then it would also be helpful just to hear your thoughts on used inventories.

然後，聽聽您對二手庫存的想法也會有所幫助。

It sounds like they remain at low levels, but are you seeing used tick up a little bit?

聽起來它們仍處於較低水平，但您是否看到二手價格略有上漲？

And is there any cause for concern that used inventories could become an issue in 2025?

是否有理由擔心二手庫存可能會在 2025 年成為一個問題？

Yes.

是的。

So first of all, let me mention on used.

首先，讓我提一下二手。

As we say, used inventory levels actually remain at pretty low levels based on history.

正如我們所說，根據歷史記錄，二手庫存水準實際上保持在相當低的水平。

They had ticked up slightly.

他們的表現略有上升。

Obviously, pricing has become a little bit lower.

顯然，定價已經降低了一些。

But pricing still is actually okay from a Cat Financial perspective.

但從 Cat Financial 的角度來看，定價實際上仍然不錯。

So no concern at this point around used inventory at all from an overall perspective.

因此，從整體角度來看，目前根本不擔心二手庫存。

With regards to dealer inventory, obviously, we work closely with our dealers through what we call our S&OP process.

顯然，就經銷商庫存而言，我們透過所謂的 S&OP 流程與經銷商密切合作。

That's our sales and operations planning process.

這就是我們的銷售和營運規劃流程。

We go down by dealer, by product really to understand what their expectations, what their requirements are, what their ordering needs are.

我們按經銷商、按產品深入了解他們的期望、要求和訂購需求。

That's part of the way of us helping to manage the factories and production efficiently.

這是我們幫助高效管理工廠和生產的方式的一部分。

At this point in time, we expect that reduction we see to bring about inventory overall to about flat year-over-year.

目前，我們預計庫存減少將使整體庫存與去年同期持平。

That seems to be the right level based on what we're hearing from dealers at this stage.

根據我們現階段從經銷商那裡聽到的情況，這似乎是正確的水平。

I don't see any reason at this point in time that there would be a need to reduce them significantly more.

目前我認為沒有任何理由需要大幅減少它們。

But obviously, that's a discussion process that will go through in 2025.

但顯然，這是一個將在 2025 年進行的討論過程。

But obviously, we are ready and prepared to manage and work and manage production accordingly.

但顯然，我們已經準備好並準備好相應地管理、工作和管理生產。

With regards to -- as I made the point a moment ago, there are some product lines where actually dealers really could hold more inventory.

關於——正如我剛才指出的那樣，在某些產品線中，經銷商實際上可以持有更多庫存。

So it's got to be very, very careful about looking at it as holistic.

因此，必須非常非常小心地從整體上看待它。

But overall, we're very comfortable with the total level and expectations for the year-end.

但總的來說，我們對年底的整體水平和期望感到非常滿意。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

So I just wanted to revisit the comments about pricing in CI.

所以我只是想重新回顧一下關於 CI 定價的評論。

So first, just wanted to understand, when do you actually expect the max pricing pressure?

首先，我想了解一下，您實際上預計什麼時候會出現最大定價壓力？

And then secondly, if we think about the other side of the ledger, the cost side, you have fuel coming down.

其次，如果我們考慮帳本的另一面，即成本方面，燃料就會下降。

It sounds like you're easing on SG&A and R&D costs.

聽起來你們正在放鬆銷售、行政管理和研發成本。

So just trying to think through whether you'll be able to offset some of that pricing pressure with some improved -- the improved cost.

因此，只要想想是否能夠透過改善成本來抵銷部分定價壓力。

Yes.

是的。

So let me just, first of all, come back to the overall.

首先，讓我回到整體。

If you actually look at our overall gross margins for the quarter, gross margins were about flat despite lower volume.

如果你實際上看看我們本季的整體毛利率，你會發現儘管銷量較低，但毛利率基本上持平。

So we have been able to find offsets.

所以我們已經能夠找到偏移量。

Some of that obviously is with a positive price within E&T.

其中一些顯然是 E&T 內部的積極價格。

And some of that is lower manufacturing costs.

其中一些是較低的製造成本。

So there are always -- and that's part of the benefit of having a broad portfolio of businesses.

所以總是存在的——這就是擁有廣泛的業務組合的好處的一部分。

We are able to manage that appropriately.

我們能夠適當地管理這一點。

Obviously, we are looking at commodity input costs and, obviously, working from a procurement perspective.

顯然，我們正在考慮商品投入成本，並且顯然是從採購的角度進行工作。

I always remind you that there's always a lag.

我總是提醒你，總是有滯後的。

It's never because of the contracting that we do.

這從來不是因為我們簽訂了合約。

We often don't necessarily buy at spot prices.

我們通常不一定會以現貨價格購買。

We buy contractor prices, which may even be lower than spot.

我們購買承包商價格，甚至可能低於現貨價格。

So all of those things are factors which feed in, takes a little bit of time for that to fall through.

所以這一切都是影響因素，需要一點時間才能消失。

With regards to the pricing pressure, immediately already, the merchandising programs we put in place are flowing through to the P&L within CI.

關於定價壓力，我們實施的銷售計畫已經立即流入 CI 的損益表中。

So that's immediate.

所以這是立竿見影的。

The point I was talking about was the lag impact on the reserve we have, which is really just a balance sheet impact, which impacts -- that will impact over the next several quarters.

我所說的一點是對我們儲備的滯後影響，這實際上只是對資產負債表的影響，這種影響將在未來幾季產生影響。

We'll give you a little bit more update on that when we get to January.

當我們一月份的時候，我們會為您提供更多更新。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩，雷蒙詹姆斯。

Jim, I was hoping you could maybe give some color on the backlog and the orders which were pretty strong in the quarter just in terms of maybe a key driver or 2 or kind of what's behind that.

吉姆，我希望你能對本季度的積壓訂單和訂單進行一些說明，這些訂單和訂單在本季度非常強勁，可能只是一個或兩個關鍵驅動因素或背後的某種原因。

And I guess, more significantly, I'm just curious if the -- I presume you're going to highlight data centers as part of that.

我想，更重要的是，我只是好奇——我想你會強調資料中心作為其中的一部分。

And is there a shift in terms of how you think -- or how we should think about ultimately the delivery -- the timing of those deliveries in that, given the tightness in capacity?

考慮到運力緊張，您的想法（或我們應該如何考慮最終的交付）是否發生了轉變？

I presume some of your bigger data center customers are like -- looking to secure capacity further out.

我想你們的一些較大的資料中心客戶會希望進一步確保容量。

So anyway, just a question around the -- maybe the driver of the orders.

無論如何，這只是一個關於訂單驅動因素的問題。

And then should we think about any change in terms of the ultimate delivery cadence of those orders?

那麼我們是否應該考慮這些訂單的最終交付節奏是否會改變？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for your question.

謝謝你的提問。

So the backlog increase in Energy & Transportation was quite robust, and that more than offset a decrease in backlog for machines.

因此，能源和運輸領域的積壓訂單成長相當強勁，這足以抵消機器積壓訂單的減少。

And of course, it's not surprising that the backlog for machines went down in anticipation of the machine dealer inventory reduction that we previously talked about in the fourth quarter.

當然，由於我們之前在第四季度談到的機器經銷商庫存減少的預期，機器積壓量下降也就不足為奇了。

So the backlog increase in Energy & Transportation being driven a lot, of course, by power generation for recip, also being driven by robust orders and solar turbines for both oil and gas and recip.

因此，能源和交通領域的積壓訂單增加在很大程度上受到了recip發電的推動，同時也受到了石油和天然氣以及recip的強勁訂單和太陽能渦輪機的推動。

So that's really what's behind it.

這就是背後的真正原因。

And so certainly, typically, lead times for solar is 8 to 12 months typically.

因此，太陽能的交貨時間通常為 8 至 12 個月。

For recip and power generation, we're working hard to meet the demands of our customers there, but we do have orders going out 18, 24 months on the outside for power generation and recip.

對於recip和發電，我們正在努力滿足那裡客戶的需求，但我們確實有18、24個月的外部訂單用於發電和recip。

Mig Dobre, Baird.

米格·多布雷，貝爾德。

Yes.

是的。

And just to follow up on Tim's question, is there a way to maybe quantify what percentage of the backlog is deliverable here in the next 12 months?

繼續回答 Tim 的問題，是否有辦法量化未來 12 個月內可交付的積壓訂單的百分比？

And I'm also curious, given the fact that the lead times are what they are in power gen, how are competitive dynamics versus your competitors in that part of the business?

我也很好奇，考慮到交貨時間就是發電業的交貨時間，在這方面的業務中，與競爭對手相比，競爭動態如何？

Is there somebody else out there maybe with better lead times than you?

還有其他人的交貨時間可能比您更好嗎？

Can you gain share if you improve your lead times faster than others?

如果您比其他人更快縮短交貨時間，您能否獲得份額？

Appreciate some thoughts on that.

感謝對此的一些想法。

You bet.

你打賭。

Generally, overall, the way we think about it is about 75% of our backlog is expected to be sold within 12 months.

一般來說，總體而言，我們的想法是大約 75% 的積壓訂單預計將在 12 個月內售出。

That's a general number for a total.

這是總數的一般數字。

As I mentioned, some of the large engine orders are out a bit more than that.

正如我所提到的，一些大型引擎訂單的數量比這要多一些。

Certainly, if we can produce more engines, we can sell more engines on -- for power generation, recip engines.

當然，如果我們能夠生產更多的發動機，我們就可以銷售更多的發動機——用於發電、複式發動機。

That's certainly the case.

確實如此。

And again, it's again, just given the strength that we see in that market, it is obviously why we decided to make an incremental investment in our capability to increase engines and parts.

再說一遍，鑑於我們在該市場看到的實力，這顯然就是我們決定對我們的能力進行增量投資以增加引擎和零件的原因。

So again, the business is quite strong.

話又說回來，業務相當強勁。

It's very, very encouraging.

這非常非常令人鼓舞。

Jairam Nathan, Daiwa.

傑拉姆·內森，大和。

I just wanted to go over some of the -- your position in China.

我只是想談談你們在中國的一些立場。

There's a lot of talk about stimulus, not sure how helpful it would be.

關於刺激措施的討論很多，但不確定它會有多大幫助。

But if you could just remind us of your market position there, the freshness of products a little bit.

但如果您能提醒我們您在那裡的市場地位，產品的新鮮度。

Yes, certainly.

是的，當然。

So as we discussed previously, for a long period of time, we talked about China being roughly 10% -- 5% to 10% of our consolidated sales and revenues.

正如我們之前討論的，在很長一段時間裡，我們談到中國市場約占我們綜合銷售額和收入的 10% 至 5% 至 10%。

It's certainly been less than that the last couple of years, and the continued -- and the market itself continues to be quite weak.

這肯定比過去幾年要少，並且持續 - 而且市場本身仍然相當疲軟。

And so it is below that 5% again this year.

因此今年再次低於 5%。

So it's a relatively small piece of our total enterprise sales.

因此，它只占我們企業總銷售額的一小部分。

Certainly, we have a significant presence in China in terms of facilities, and we've integrated our supply chain suppliers, manufacturing and local leadership as well in dealers.

當然，我們在中國的設施方面擁有重要的影響力，我們已經整合了我們的供應鏈供應商、製造和當地領導以及經銷商。

And -- but again, the market is, in fact, quite depressed.

但同樣，市場其實相當低迷。

And we have -- and this is a reminder for us that market is primarily excavators above 10-ton.

我們有—這提醒我們，市場主要是 10 噸以上的挖土機。

And so people have asked about the stimulus.

因此人們詢問了刺激計劃的情況。

We certainly -- it's too early for us to have seen any impact of that, and we have not.

當然，我們現在看到這帶來的任何影響還為時過早，而且我們還沒有看到。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

羅布‧韋特海默，Melius 研究中心。

So I wanted to follow up, last quarter, you kind of touched on expanding opportunities at solar turbines and power gen.

所以我想跟進一下，上個季度，您談到了太陽能渦輪機和發電領域的擴大機會。

And in today's call, you mentioned some of the strong demand you're seeing in the recip side and capacity expansion, et cetera.

在今天的電話會議中，您提到了在配方和產能擴張等方面看到的一些強勁需求。

On Vernova’s call, they had some strong trends in their derivative turbines, which I think are probably still a little bit above your power range.

在 Vernova 的號召下，他們的衍生渦輪機出現了一些強勁的趨勢，我認為這些渦輪機可能仍略高於您的功率範圍。

But I wonder if you might just talk about this business and the opportunity you're seeing in the power gen segment for solar.

但我想知道您是否可以談談這項業務以及您在太陽能發電領域看到的機會。

What does that mean?

這意味著什麼？

Does it mean behind the gated data center?

這是否意味著在門控資料中心後面？

Does it mean data centers?

是指資料中心嗎？

What is the opportunity you're seeing?

您看到的機會是什麼？

And then you've expanded capacity in recips.

然後你就擴大了食譜的容量。

Do you have room to grow in turbines?

您在渦輪機領域還有發展空間嗎？

Or would you -- is the opportunity big enough that you're thinking about expanding there, too?

或者你會——這個機會足夠大，以至於你也考慮在那裡擴張嗎？

Just a general overview.

只是一般概述。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

So certainly, we are seeing an increase in business in -- for power generation and solar turbines.

因此，我們確實看到發電和太陽能渦輪機業務的成長。

It's -- we're selling trailerized units now, and it's being driven by a whole variety of factors.

我們現在正在銷售拖車單位，這是由多種因素推動的。

One of the things that we're doing is selling into some rental fleets, where rental fleets are positioning themselves to help satisfy what they believe will be increased electricity demand across the grid in primarily in North America.

我們正在做的事情之一就是向一些租賃車隊出售產品，這些租賃車隊正在定位自己，以幫助滿足他們認為主要是北美電網不斷增長的電力需求。

And sometimes, those units will be rented to utility.

有時，這些單位會出租給公用事業公司。

Sometimes, those will be rented to a data center, but there's a whole variety of uses for that.

有時，這些設備會被租給資料中心，但用途多種多樣。

So we are seeing an increase in power generation in Solar.

因此，我們看到太陽能發電量增加。

Solar is not out of capacity.

太陽能並未耗盡產能。

They certainly have the ability to continue to increase their production.

他們當然有能力持續增加產量。

And one of the things you might be aware of is that we are in the process of introducing a newer, larger gas turbine for solar turbines.

您可能知道的一件事是，我們正在為太陽能渦輪機引入一種更新、更大的燃氣渦輪機。

It's our largest jet called the Titan 350.

這是我們最大的噴射機，名為 Titan 350。

And that really will allow us to compete in some areas that we have not been able to compete in the past -- compete for in the past because we just didn't have a turbine that was large enough.

這確實將使我們能夠在一些我們過去無法競爭的領域中競爭——過去因為我們沒有足夠大的渦輪機而競爭。

And so we're quite excited about that new product.

所以我們對這個新產品感到非常興奮。

It's early days in terms of just starting to get those shipped, but we are quite encouraged by the amount of customer interest and discussions we're having with our customers about that new product.

雖然現在才開始出貨，但我們對客戶的興趣以及我們與客戶就該新產品進行的討論感到非常鼓舞。

So again, that's something that's very exciting for us.

再說一遍，這對我們來說非常令人興奮。

Okay.

好的。

With that, I just want to thank everyone for joining us, and certainly appreciate your questions.

在此，我只想感謝大家加入我們，當然也感謝你們提出的問題。

I just want to thank by, again, thanking our global team for delivering strong adjusted operating profit margin and adjusted profit per share and, again, while generating robust ME&T free cash flow.

我只想再次感謝我們的全球團隊提供了強勁的調整後營業利潤率和調整後每股利潤，同時再次產生了強勁的 ME&T 自由現金流。

And as we discussed today, our results continue to reflect the benefit of the diversity of our end markets as well as the execution of our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

正如我們今天所討論的，我們的業績繼續反映了我們終端市場多樣性的好處以及我們長期獲利成長策略的執行。

Again, thank you for your time.

再次感謝您抽出時間。

Thank you, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today.

謝謝吉姆、安德魯和今天加入我們的所有人。

A replay of our call will be available online later this morning.

今天上午晚些時候，我們將在網上重播我們的電話會議。

We'll also post a transcript to our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available.

一旦有文字記錄，我們也將立即將其發佈到我們的投資者關係網站上。

You'll also find the third quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data.

您還可以找到我們財務長的第三季業績影片以及包含我們向用戶銷售資料的 SEC 文件。

Click on investors.caterpillar.com, then click on Financials to view those materials.

點擊 Investors.caterpillar.com，然後點擊「財務」以查看這些資料。

If you have any questions, please reach out to Alex, Rob or me.

如果您有任何疑問，請聯絡 Alex、Rob 或我。

The Investor Relations general phone number is (309) 675-4549.

投資者關係電話號碼為 (309) 675-4549。

And now we'll turn the call back to Audra to conclude.

現在我們將把電話轉回奧德拉結束。

That does conclude our call.

我們的通話到此結束。

Thank you for joining.

感謝您的加入。

You may all disconnect.

你們都可以斷開連線。