開拓重工 (CAT) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 Caterpillar Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ryan Fiedler. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們，先生們，歡迎參加卡特彼勒2023年第二季業績電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人Ryan Fiedler。謝謝。先生，請開始。

Thanks, Abby, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Caterpillar's Second Quarter of 2023 Earnings Call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO; Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer; Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division; and Rob Rengel, Senior IR Manager.

謝謝，艾比，大家早安，歡迎參加卡特彼勒2023年第二季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁瑞安‧菲德勒 (Ryan Fiedler)。今天與我一起出席的還有董事長兼首席執行官吉姆·安普爾比 (Jim Umpleby)、首席財務官安德魯·邦菲爾德 (Andrew Bonfield)、全球金融服務部高級副總裁凱爾·埃普利 (Kyle Epley) 以及投資者關係高級經理羅布·倫格爾 (Rob Rengel)。

During our call, we'll be discussing the second quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under Events and Presentations.

在電話會議中，我們將討論今天稍早發布的第二季財報。您可以在 investors.caterpillar.com 的「活動與簡報」欄位下找到我們的幻燈片、新聞稿和網路直播回顧。

The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited.

本次電話會議內容受美國及國際版權法保護。未經卡特彼勒事先書面許可，禁止轉播、轉播、複製或散佈本內容的全部或部分。

Moving to Slide 2. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings and the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that, individually or in aggregate, could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecast. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings.

轉到投影片2。在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響。我們也會做出一些假設，這些假設可能會導致我們的實際結果與我們在本次電話會議上與您分享的資訊有所不同。請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件以及新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述提醒，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與預測產生重大差異的因素（無論是單獨還是整體而言）。我們認為，許多因素可能會持續對我們的業務產生重大影響，而這些因素的詳細討論已包含在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。

On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides.

在今天的電話會議上，我們也會提及非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 資料。如需查看非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 資料與相應的美國公認會計準則 (U.S. GAAP) 資料的對照表，請參閱財報電話會議投影片的附錄。

Now let's turn to Slide 3 and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umpleby.

現在讓我們翻到幻燈片 3，並將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Jim Umpleby。

Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. As we close out the first half of 2023, I want to recognize our global team for delivering a very strong second quarter. This included double-digit top line growth, higher adjusted operating profit margin, record adjusted profit per share and robust ME&T free cash flow. Our results continued to reflect healthy demand across most end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth.

謝謝，Ryan。大家早安。感謝各位的參與。在2023年上半年即將結束之際，我想對我們全球團隊在第二季取得的出色成績表示感謝。這包括兩位數的營收成長、更高的調整後營業利潤率、創紀錄的調整後每股利潤以及強勁的醫療和電信業務自由現金流。我們的業績持續反映出大多數終端市場對我們產品和服務的強勁需求。我們將繼續專注於執行我們的策略，並持續投資以實現長期獲利成長。

In today's call, I'll begin with my perspectives on our performance in the quarter. I'll then provide some insights on our end markets. Lastly, I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey.

在今天的電話會議上，我將首先談談我對本季業績的看法。然後，我將就我們的終端市場提供一些見解。最後，我將介紹我們可持續發展的最新進展。

It was another strong quarter. Sales and revenues increased 22% in the second quarter versus last year. Adjusted operating profit margin improved to 21.3%, up sequentially and year-over-year. We also generated $2.6 billion of ME&T free cash flow in the quarter.

這又是一個強勁的季度。第二季銷售額和營收年增22%。調整後營業利益率提升至21.3%，較上季及年比均有成長。本季我們也創造了26億美元的機電產品及服務（ME&T）自由現金流。

Our second quarter results were better than we expected for sales and revenues, adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow. In addition, we ended the quarter with a healthy backlog of $30.7 billion.

我們第二季的業績表現優於預期，包括銷售額、收入、調整後營業利潤率以及機械與電氣設備業務（ME&T）的自由現金流。此外，本季末，我們擁有307億美元的穩健訂單儲備。

We continue to see improvement in the supply chain, which allowed us to increase production in the quarter. However, areas of challenge remain, particularly for large engines, which impacts energy and transportation and some of our larger machines. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, we now expect our 2023 results to be better than we had previously anticipated.

我們持續看到供應鏈的改善，這使我們能夠在本季提高產量。然而，挑戰仍然存在，尤其是大型發動機，這會影響能源和交通運輸以及我們的一些大型機器。我們將繼續密切關注全球宏觀經濟狀況，目前我們預計2023年的業績將優於先前的預期。

Turning to Slide 4. In the second quarter of 2023, sales and revenues increased by 22% to $17.3 billion. This was primarily due to higher sales volume and price realization. Sales volumes were higher than we expected, largely due to an increase in dealer inventory relating to energy and transportation, which is supported by customer orders. We saw double-digit increases in sales and revenues in each of our 3 primary segments. Compared with the second quarter of 2022, overall sales to users increased 16%. For machines, which includes Construction Industries and Resource Industries, sales to users rose by 8%. Energy & Transportation was up 47%.

翻到第4張投影片。 2023年第二季度，銷售額和營收成長22%，達到173億美元。這主要得益於更高的銷售和價格實現。銷售量高於我們的預期，主要原因是經銷商在能源和運輸領域的庫存增加，這得益於客戶訂單的支援。我們三大主要業務部門的銷售額和收入均實現了兩位數成長。與2022年第二季相比，整體用戶銷售額成長了16%。包括建築業和資源業在內的機械設備用戶銷售額成長了8%。能源和交通運輸業務成長了47%。

Sales to users in Construction Industries were up 3%. North American sales to users increased and were better than expected as demand remained healthy for nonresidential and residential construction. Nonresidential continue to benefit from government-related infrastructure and construction projects.

建築業用戶銷售額成長3%。北美用戶銷售成長，且好於預期，非住宅和住宅建築需求保持強勁。非住宅市場繼續受益於政府相關的基礎設施和建築項目。

Residential sales to users in North America also increased in the quarter. EAME saw lower sales to users due to weaker-than-expected market conditions in Europe. The Middle East continued to demonstrate strong construction activity. In Latin America and Asia Pacific, sales to users declined in the quarter.

本季度，北美地區的住宅用戶銷售額也有所成長。由於歐洲市場狀況弱於預期，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的用戶銷售量有所下降。中東地區的建築活動持續保持強勁。拉丁美洲和亞太地區的用戶銷售額在本季有所下降。

In Resource Industries, sales to users increased 26%. In mining, sales to users increased, supported by commodities remaining above investment thresholds. Within heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, sales to users also increased, supported by growth for infrastructure-related projects.

資源產業用戶銷售額成長26%。採礦業用戶銷售成長，受大宗商品價格維持在投資門檻以上支撐。重型建築、採石和骨材行業用戶銷售額也有所成長，受基礎設施相關專案成長支撐。

In Energy & Transportation, sales to users increased by 47% in the second quarter. All applications saw higher sales to users in the quarter. Oil and gas sales to users benefited from strong sales of turbines and turbine-related services. We also saw continued strength in sales of reciprocating engines into oil and gas applications, such as Tier 4 dynamic gas blending, gas compression and repowering active well-servicing fleets.

能源與交通運輸領域第二季用戶銷售額成長了47%。所有應用領域的用戶銷售額均在本季有所成長。石油和天然氣用戶銷售受益於渦輪機及其相關服務的強勁銷售。我們也看到往復式引擎在石油和天然氣應用領域的銷售持續強勁，例如Tier 4動態氣體混合、氣體壓縮以及為現役油井服務車隊提供動力。

Power generation sales to users continued to remain positive due to favorable market conditions, including strong data center growth. Industrial and transportation sales to users also increased.

得益於資料中心強勁成長等利好市場條件，發電量持續維持正成長。工業和交通運輸業發電量也出現成長。

Dealer inventories increased by $600 million in the quarter, led by energy and transportation. We are very comfortable with the total level of dealer inventory, which remains in the typical range. Adjusted operating profit margin increased to 21.3% in the second quarter as we saw improvements, both on a sequential and year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating profit margin was better than we had anticipated, primarily due to better-than-expected volume growth and lower-than-expected manufacturing costs, including freight.

本季度，經銷商庫存增加了6億美元，主要來自能源和運輸業務。我們對經銷商庫存總量非常滿意，該庫存水準保持在正常範圍內。第二季調整後營業利益率增至21.3%，較上季和年比均有所改善。調整後營業利益率高於我們的預期，主要得益於銷售成長優於預期，以及包括運費在內的製造成本低於預期。

Moving to Slide 5. We generated strong ME&T free cash flow of $2.6 billion in the second quarter. We returned $2 billion to shareholders, which included about $1.4 billion in repurchased stock and $600 million in dividends. In June, we announced an 8% dividend increase.

轉到第5張投影片。我們在第二季度實現了強勁的ME&T自由現金流，達到26億美元。我們向股東返還了20億美元，其中包括約14億美元的回購股票和6億美元的股利。 6月份，我們宣布將股息提高8%。

Since May of 2019, when we introduced our current capital allocation strategy, we have increased the quarterly dividend per share by 51%. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all ME&T free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases.

自2019年5月推出現行資本配置策略以來，我們已將每股季度股利提高了51%。我們依然以股息貴族的身份感到自豪，並將繼續預期未來將透過股利和股票回購的方式，將ME&T的大部分自由現金流返還給股東。

Now on Slide 6, I'll describe our expectations moving forward. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, our second quarter results lead us to expect that full year 2023 will now be even better than we described during our last earnings call. We now expect adjusted operating profit margins to be close to the top of the targeted range relative to the corresponding expected level of sales.

現在，在幻燈片6上，我將描述我們對未來的預期。我們將繼續密切關注全球宏觀經濟狀況，但根據第二季的業績，我們預計2023年全年業績將比我們上次財報電話會議的預測更加出色。我們目前預計，相對於相應的預期銷售水平，調整後的營業利潤率將接近目標區間的上限。

This positive operating performance increases our expectations for ME&T free cash flow, which we now expect to be around the top of the $4 billion to $8 billion range for the full year. Our current expectations for adjusted operating profit margin and ME&T free cash flow reflect continuing healthy customer demand and our strong operating performance.

這一積極的營運業績提升了我們對ME&T自由現金流的預期，目前我們預計全年自由現金流將在40億美元至80億美元之間。我們目前對調整後營業利潤率和ME&T自由現金流的預期反映了持續健康的客戶需求和我們強勁的營運表現。

Now I'll discuss our outlook for key end markets this year, starting with the Construction Industries. In North America, overall, we continue to see positive momentum in 2023. We expect continued growth in nonresidential construction in North America due to the positive impact of government-related infrastructure investments and a healthy pipeline of construction projects. Although residential construction growth has moderated, we expect the rest of 2023 to remain healthy.

現在，我將討論我們對今年主要終端市場的展望，首先是建築業。總體而言，北美市場在2023年將繼續保持積極勢頭。由於政府相關基礎設施投資的正面影響以及建設項目的健康發展，我們預計北美非住宅建築將繼續成長。儘管住宅建築成長放緩，但我們預計2023年剩餘時間仍將保持健康成長。

In Asia/Pacific, excluding China, we expect growth in Construction Industries due to public infrastructure spending in support of commodity prices. We mentioned during our last earnings call that we expected sales in China to be below the typical 5% to 10% of our enterprise sales. We now expect further weakness as the 10-ton-and-above excavator industry has declined even more than we anticipated.

在亞太地區（不包括中國），我們預期建築業將實現成長，這得益於公共基礎設施支出支撐大宗商品價格。我們在上次財報電話會議上提到，預計中國市場的銷售額將低於我們企業銷售額的5%至10%的正常水平。目前，我們預期中國市場的銷售額將進一步疲軟，因為10噸及以上挖土機產業的下滑幅度甚至超出了我們的預期。

In EAME, we anticipate that it will be flat to slightly up overall, with the Middle East exhibiting strong construction demand, whereas Europe is expected to be down. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to be down in 2023 versus a strong 2022 performance.

在東非和非洲地區，我們預計整體建築需求將持平或略有上升，其中中東地區建築需求強勁，歐洲預計將出現下滑。拉丁美洲的建築活動預計將在2023年下滑，而2022年則表現強勁。

In Resource Industries, we expect healthy mining demand to continue as commodity prices remain above investment thresholds. As I've mentioned previously, customers remain capital disciplined, which supports a gradual increase in mining over time. We anticipate production and utilization levels will remain elevated.

在資源產業，我們預計，隨著大宗商品價格維持在投資門檻之上，採礦需求將持續保持健康。正如我之前提到的，客戶仍然保持資金自律，這將支持採礦業務的逐步成長。我們預計產量和利用率將保持在較高水準。

We also expect the age of the fleet and the low level of parked trucks to support future demand for our equipment and services. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for profitable growth.

我們也預計，車隊的年限和較低的卡車停放率將支撐未來對我們設備和服務的需求。我們始終相信，能源轉型將支持大宗商品需求的成長，擴大我們的總潛在市場，並提供更多獲利成長機會。

In heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, we anticipate continued growth due to major infrastructure and nonresidential construction projects.

在重型建築、採石場和骨材領域，我們預計由於大型基礎設施和非住宅建築項目，該領域將繼續成長。

Now I'll discuss Energy & Transportation. For Cat reciprocating engines and oil and gas applications, although customers remain disciplined, we are encouraged by continuing strong demand for gas compression. Cat reciprocating engine demand for power generation is expected to remain healthy, including strong data center growth. New equipment orders and services for solar turbines in both oil and gas and power generation remain robust. Industrial continues to be healthy.

現在我將討論能源與交通運輸。對於 Cat 往復式引擎以及石油和天然氣應用，儘管客戶仍然保持謹慎，但我們對氣體壓縮持續強勁的需求感到鼓舞。預計 Cat 往復式引擎在發電領域的需求將保持健康，包括資料中心的強勁成長。石油、天然氣和發電領域太陽能渦輪機的新設備訂單和服務保持強勁。工業領域持續保持健康。

In transportation, we anticipate strength in high-speed Marine as customers continued to upgrade aging fleets.

在運輸方面，隨著客戶不斷升級老化船隊，我們預計高速海運將表現強勁。

Moving to Slide 7. We continued to advance our sustainability journey. Since our last quarterly earnings call, we published our 2022 sustainability report, which disclosed our estimated Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions for the first time. We also published our first-ever task force on climate-related financial disclosures report. We're helping our customers achieve their climate-related goals by continuing to invest in new products, technologies and services that facilitate fuel flexibility, increased operational efficiency and reduced emissions.

移至第7張投影片。我們持續推動永續發展進程。自上次季度財報電話會議以來，我們發布了2022年永續發展報告，首次揭露了我們估算的範圍3溫室氣體排放量。我們也發布了首份氣候相關財務揭露工作小組報告。我們正持續投資新產品、新技術和新服務，以提升燃料靈活性、提高營運效率並減少排放，進而幫助客戶實現其氣候相關目標。

For example, a customer in Chile is realizing fuel savings and lower emissions after purchasing our CAT D6 XE, the world's first high-drive diesel-electric drive dozer. The customer reported a 30% reduction in fuel consumption versus the previous model working in the same operation. This example reinforces our ongoing sustainability leadership in how we help our customers build a better, more sustainable world.

例如，智利的一位客戶在購買了我們的CAT D6 XE（全球首款高驅動力柴油電力驅動推土機）後，實現了燃油節省和排放降低。客戶回饋，在相同作業條件下，與之前的型號相比，燃油消耗降低了30%。這個案例鞏固了我們在幫助客戶建立更美好、更永續的世界方面持續的永續發展領導力。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給安德魯。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with commentary on the second quarter results, including the performance of our business segments. Then I'll discuss the balance sheet and free cash flow before concluding with our assumptions for the remainder of the year, including color on the third quarter.

謝謝吉姆，大家早安。首先，我將評論第二季的業績，包括我們各業務部門的表現。然後，我將討論資產負債表和自由現金流，最後我將總結我們對今年剩餘時間的預測，包括對第三季業績的展望。

Beginning on Slide 8. Our team delivered a very strong second quarter as overall results exceeded our expectations on strong operating performance. We saw a healthy top line growth, improved operating margins and robust ME&T free cash flow. For the year, we now expect our adjusted operating profit margin to be close to the top of the targeted range at our anticipated sales level. We also expect ME&T free cash flow to be around the top of our $4 billion to $8 billion target range.

從第8張投影片開始。我們的團隊在第二季取得了非常強勁的業績，整體業績超出了我們基於強勁營運表現的預期。我們的營收健康成長，營運利潤率有所提升，ME&T業務的自由現金流也表現強勁。就全年而言，我們目前預計，在預期的銷售水準下，調整後的營運利潤率將接近目標區間的上限。我們也預期ME&T業務的自由現金流將達到我們40億美元至80億美元的目標區間上限。

To summarize the results, sales and revenues increased by 22% or $3.1 billion to $17.3 billion. Sales increase versus the prior year was due to higher sales volume and price realization. Operating profit increased by 88% or $1.7 billion to $3.7 billion. The adjusted operating profit margin was 21.3%, an increase of 750 basis points versus the prior year.

業績總結：銷售額和收入成長22%，即31億美元，達到173億美元。銷售額同比增長是由於銷量和價格實現的提高。營業利潤成長88%，即17億美元，達到37億美元。調整後營業利益率為21.3%，較上年成長750個基點。

Adjusted profit per share increased by 75% to $5.55 in the second quarter compared to $3.18 last year. Profit per share was $5.67 in the second quarter of this year. This included a discrete deferred tax benefit of $0.17 per share, while restructuring costs were $0.05 per share, flat compared to the prior year. We continue to expect restructuring expenses of about $700 million for the full year.

第二季調整後每股盈餘為 5.55 美元，較去年同期的 3.18 美元成長 75%。今年第二季每股獲利為 5.67 美元。其中包括每股 0.17 美元的離散遞延稅項收益，重組成本為每股 0.05 美元，與去年持平。我們預計全年重組費用約 7 億美元。

Other income of $127 million in the quarter was lower than the second quarter of 2022 by $133 million. The year-over-year decline was primarily driven by an unfavorable currency impact related to ME&T balance sheet translation and a recurring increase in quarterly pension expense of approximately $80 million, which we initially spoke to you about in January. Higher investment and interest income acted as a partial offset.

本季其他營收為1.27億美元，較2022年第二季減少1.33億美元。年比下降主要由於與機械、電氣和電信（ME&T）資產負債表折算相關的不利匯率影響，以及季度退休金支出約8000萬美元的經常性增加（我們最初在1月份與您討論過此問題）。投資和利息收入的增加部分抵消了這一影響。

The provision for income tax in the second quarter, excluding discrete items, reflected a global annual effective tax rate of approximately 23%, which remains our expectation for the full year.

第二季的所得稅準備金（不包括離散項目）反映出全球年度有效稅率約為 23%，這仍然是我們對全年的預期。

Moving on to Slide 9. The 22% increase in the top line versus the prior year was due to higher sales volume and price. Volume improved as sales to users increased by 16% and from changes in dealer inventory. Sales for the quarter were higher than we had anticipated, mostly due to volume. The volume outperformance reflected a dealer inventory increase, which was primarily due to our stronger-than-expected shipments in Energy & Transportation, particularly in power generation, which is in line with strong data center demand. Price realization was in line with our expectations for the quarter.

繼續看投影片9。營收較上年同期成長22%，得益於銷量及價格的提升。銷量的成長得益於用戶銷售額成長16%，以及經銷商庫存的變化。本季銷售額高於我們的預期，主要得益於銷售量的成長。銷售的優異表現反映了經銷商庫存的增加，這主要得益於我們在能源與交通運輸領域，尤其是發電領域的出貨量強於預期，這與資料中心的強勁需求相符。價格的實現符合我們對本季的預期。

As I mentioned, sales to users grew by 16% in the quarter. As Jim has discussed, demand remains healthy across most end markets for all our products and services and is supported by a healthy order backlog.

正如我之前提到的，本季用戶銷售額成長了16%。正如Jim所說，我們所有產品和服務在大多數終端市場的需求仍然強勁，訂單積壓情況良好。

Moving to Slide 10. Second quarter operating profit increased by 88%, while adjusted operating profit increased by 87% to $3.7 billion. Year-over-year favorable price realization and higher sales volume were partially offset by higher manufacturing costs, which largely reflected higher material costs. An increase in SG&A and R&D expenses included higher strategic investment spend.

移至第 10 張投影片。第二季營業利潤成長 88%，調整後營業利潤成長 87%，達到 37 億美元。同比有利的價格實現和更高的銷售部分抵消了製造成本的上升，這主要反映了材料成本的上升。銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 和研發費用的增加包括策略性投資支出的增加。

The adjusted operating profit margin of 21.3% was better than we had anticipated. Volume exceeded our expectations, which supported the margin outperformance. In addition, manufacturing costs increased less than we expected due to lower freight costs and a lower-than-anticipated impact from cost absorption. SG&A and R&D expenses were about in line.

調整後營業利益率為21.3%，高於我們的預期。銷量超出預期，支撐了利潤率的優異表現。此外，由於運費下降以及成本吸收的影響低於預期，製造成本增幅低於我們的預期。銷售、一般及行政開支（SG&A）及研發費用基本持平。

Moving to Slide 11. I'll review the segment performance. Construction Industries sales increased by 19% in the second quarter to $7.2 billion due to price realization and higher sales volume. By region, sales in North America rose by 32% due to higher sales volume and price realization. Stronger demand and supply chain improvements enabled stronger-than-expected shipments in North America. This supported stronger sales of equipment to end users and some dealer restocking in what remains our most constrained region.

轉到第11張投影片。我將回顧各部門的表現。由於價格實現和銷售成長，建築業第二季銷售額成長了19%，達到72億美元。按地區劃分，由於銷量和價格實現的增長，北美地區的銷售額增長了32%。強勁的需求和供應鏈的改善使得北美地區的出貨量超乎預期。這促進了設備向終端用戶的銷售成長，也促進了部分經銷商在我們仍然最緊俏的地區進行補貨。

Sales in Latin America decreased by 11%, primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by price realization.

拉丁美洲的銷售額下降了 11%，主要是由於銷售量下降，但部分被價格實現所抵消。

In EAME, sales increased by 20%, primarily the result of higher sales volume and price realization. Sales in Asia/Pacific were about flat.

歐洲、非洲和中東地區 (EAME) 銷售額成長 20%，主要得益於銷售成長和價格實現。亞太地區銷售額基本持平。

Second quarter profit for Construction Industries increased by 82% versus the prior year to $1.8 billion. The increase was mainly due to price realization and higher sales volume. The segment's operating margin of 25.2% was an increase of 880 basis points versus last year. Margin exceeded our expectations, largely due to better-than-expected volume and freight costs, which were lower than we had anticipated.

建築業第二季獲利年增82%，達到18億美元。這一增長主要得益於價格實現和銷售增長。該部門的營運利潤率為25.2%，較去年同期成長了880個基點。利潤率超出我們的預期，這主要得益於好於預期的銷售量和低於我們預期的運費成本。

Turning to Slide 12. Resource Industries sales grew by 20% in the second quarter to $3.6 billion. The increase was primarily due to price realization and higher sales volume. Volume increased due to higher sales of equipment to end users. Although aftermarket sales volumes were lower, dealer sales to customers for services remained positive.

翻到第12張投影片。資源產業第二季銷售額成長20%，達36億美元。成長主要得益於價格實現和銷售成長。銷量成長是由於面向終端用戶的設備銷售增加。儘管售後市場銷量有所下降，但經銷商向客戶提供的服務銷售額仍保持正成長。

Second quarter profit for Resource Industries increased by 108% versus the prior year to $740 million, mainly due to price realization and higher sales volume. This was partially offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs, largely material costs. The segment's operating margin of 20.8% was an increase of 880 basis points versus last year. The segment's margin was better than we had expected, primarily due to favorable volume, timing of SG&A and R&D spend and lower-than-anticipated freight costs.

資源工業部門第二季獲利年增108%，達7.4億美元，主要得益於價格實現及銷售成長。不利的製造成本（主要是材料成本）部分抵銷了這一成長。該部門的營業利潤率為20.8%，較去年同期成長了880個基點。該部門的利潤率高於我們的預期，主要得益於良好的銷售、銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）和研發支出的時機以及低於預期的運費。

Now on Slide 13. Energy & Transportation sales increased by 27% in the second quarter to $7.2 billion. Sales were up double digits across all applications. Oil and gas sales increased by 43%, power generation sales increased by 39%, industrial sales rose by 18% and transportation sales increased by 12%. Second quarter profit for Energy & Transportation increased by 93% versus the prior year to $1.3 billion. The increase was mainly due to higher sales volume and price realization, partially offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs and higher SG&A and R&D expenses. The segment's operating margin of 17.6% was an increase of 600 basis points versus last year. The margin was generally in line with our expectations.

現在看投影片 13。能源與交通運輸部門第二季銷售額成長 27%，達到 72 億美元。所有應用領域的銷售額均達到兩位數成長。石油和天然氣銷售額成長 43%，發電銷售額成長 39%，工業銷售額成長 18%，交通運輸銷售額成長 12%。能源與交通運輸部門第二季獲利年增 93%，達到 13 億美元。成長主要得益於銷售和價格實現成長，但製造成本、銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 和研發費用的增加部分抵消了這一增長。該部門的營業利潤率為 17.6%，較去年同期成長了 600 個基點。利潤率基本上符合我們的預期。

Moving to Slide 14. Financial Products revenue increased by 16% to $923 million, primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions. Segment profit increased by 11% to $240 million. The increase was mainly due to a lower provision for credit losses at Cat Financial, partially offset by an increase in SG&A expense.

移至第 14 張投影片。金融產品收入成長 16%，達到 9.23 億美元，主要得益於所有地區平均融資利率的提高。分部利潤成長 11%，達到 2.4 億美元。成長主要源自於 Cat Financial 信貸損失撥備的減少，但銷售、一般及行政費用的增加部分抵銷了這一成長。

Business activity remains strong, and our portfolio continues to perform well. Past dues in the quarter were 2.15%, a 4 basis points improvement compared to the second quarter of 2022. This is the lowest second quarter past dues percentage since 2007.

業務活動保持強勁，我們的投資組合持續表現良好。本季逾期率為2.15%，較2022年第二季下降了4個基點。這是2007年以來第二季逾期率最低的一次。

Retail new business volume performed well, increasing versus the prior year and the first quarter. In addition, we continue to see strong demand for used equipment.

零售新業務量表現良好，較去年同期及第一季均成長。此外，我們繼續看到對二手設備需求的強勁成長。

Now on Slide 15. Our ME&T free cash flow generation was again robust as we generated $2.6 billion in the quarter. This was an increase of $1.5 billion compared to the prior year, with approximately $4 billion generated in the first half, we now expect ME&T free cash flow to be around the top of our $4 billion to $8 billion target range for the full year.

現在就來看第 15 張投影片。本季度，我們的 ME&T 自由現金流再次強勁成長，達到 26 億美元。與去年同期相比，這一數字成長了 15 億美元。上半年 ME&T 自由現金流約 40 億美元。我們預計，全年 ME&T 自由現金流將達到 40 億至 80 億美元的目標區間上限。

CapEx in the second quarter was about $300 million, and we still expect to spend around $1.5 billion for the full year. As Jim mentioned, we returned about $2 billion through share repurchases and dividends in the second quarter.

第二季的資本支出約為3億美元，我們預計全年仍將支出約15億美元。正如Jim所提到的，我們在第二季透過股票回購和股息返還了約20億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong. We have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $7.4 billion, and we also hold an additional $2 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁。我們擁有充足的流動性，企業現金餘額達74億美元，此外我們還持有20億美元期限稍長的流動性有價證券，以提高這些現金的收益率。

Now turning to Slide 16. I will share some high-level assumptions for the second half and the third quarter. In the second half of 2023, we expect higher total sales and revenues as compared to the second half of last year. We anticipate both sales to users and price realization will be positive in the second half. Keep in mind that on a comparative basis, we start to lap the stronger price we saw from the third quarter onwards last year.

現在翻到第16張投影片。我將分享一些關於下半年和第三季的宏觀預測。我們預計2023年下半年的總銷售額和收入將比去年下半年更高。我們預計下半年的用戶銷售和價格實現都將為正值。請記住，從比較的角度看，我們開始回吐去年第三季以來的強勁價格。

Caterpillar sales will be impacted by changes in dealer inventories as dealers increased their inventories in the second half of last year, which is not typical, versus our expectation of a more typical reduction in the second half of 2023.

卡特彼勒的銷售將受到經銷商庫存變化的影響，因為經銷商在去年下半年增加了庫存，這並不常見，而我們預計 2023 年下半年的庫存減少更為常見。

I want to spend just a few moments talking about dealer inventories. Dealers are independent businesses, and they make their own decisions around the level of inventory they hold. We obviously work closely with them because this impacts our production levels. As Jim mentioned, we are very comfortable with the levels of inventory that dealers are holding.

我想花幾分鐘談談經銷商庫存。經銷商是獨立的企業，他們會自行決定庫存水準。我們顯然與他們密切合作，因為這會影響我們的生產水準。正如Jim所提到的，我們對經銷商的庫存水準非常滿意。

We talk about dealer inventory in aggregate. This is difficult to predict with certainty as it arises from 3 different business segments, over 150 dealers and hundreds of different products. In Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation, dealer inventory is mainly a function of the commissioning pipeline. Keep in mind that over 70% of dealer inventory in these segments is backed by firm customer orders.

我們討論的是經銷商庫存總量。由於庫存來自三個不同的業務部門、超過150家經銷商和數百種不同的產品，因此很難準確預測。在資源產業以及能源與運輸領域，經銷商庫存主要取決於試車管道。需要注意的是，這些領域超過70%的經銷商庫存都由客戶確認訂單支撐。

For Construction Industries, dealer inventory is principally a function of end-user demand and availability from the factory. In Construction Industries, dealers typically increase inventories during the first half of the year. Around 60% of the $2 billion increase during the first half of this year was from products in this segment. The remaining 40% is in Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation. For Resource Industries and Energy Transportation, we currently anticipate a slight reduction in levels in the second half but this is dependent on commissioning.

對於建築業，經銷商庫存主要取決於最終用戶需求和工廠庫存。在建築業，經銷商通常會在上半年增加庫存。今年上半年20億美元的增量中，約有60%來自該領域的產品。其餘40%來自資源產業以及能源和交通運輸業。對於資源產業和能源和交通運輸業，我們目前預計下半年庫存水準會略有下降，但這取決於投產情況。

In Construction Industries, dealers are currently holding around the midpoint of the typical 3- to 4-month range. Some dealers would like to increase inventories of certain products, such as BCP and earth moving due to strong customer demand. Conversely, some dealers would like to reduce their levels of Excavator inventory because of high availability.

在建築業，經銷商目前的庫存水準處於典型的3至4個月區間的中點。由於客戶需求強勁，一些經銷商希望增加某些產品的庫存，例如建築施工設備（BCP）和土方設備。相反，一些經銷商則希望降低挖土機的庫存水平，因為挖土機的庫存充足。

In addition, we are scheduled to replace third-party engines with Cat engines in certain products, which will impact production of these products during the second half. Our current planning assumption for the Construction Industries is that dealers will reduce their overall levels of inventory in the second half of 2023 with a primary focus on excavators.

此外，我們計劃將部分產品中的第三方發動機替換為 Cat 發動機，這將影響這些產品在下半年的生產。我們目前對建築業的規劃假設是，經銷商將在 2023 年下半年降低其整體庫存水平，主要集中在挖土機上。

Overall, at the enterprise level, we currently expect dealer inventory should be slightly higher at the end of 2023 versus last year.

整體而言，從企業層級來看，我們目前預期2023年底經銷商庫存應該會比去年略高。

Moving on. On this slide, we provide our adjusted profit margins target chart to assist you in your modeling process. Based on our current planning assumptions, we anticipate full year adjusted operating profit margin to be close to the top of that 300 basis points target range at our expected sales level. Your expectation for total enterprise sales this year will inform you where on the curve margins should finish for the year.

繼續。這張投影片提供了調整後的利潤率目標圖表，以協助您進行建模。根據我們目前的規劃假設，我們預期全年調整後的營業利潤率將接近我們預期銷售水準下300個基點的目標區間上限。您對今年企業總銷售額的預期將決定您今年的利潤率曲線最終應位於何處。

Specific to the second half, we anticipate adjusted operating profit margins in the remaining quarters of the year will be above the year-ago levels, although they will be lower than the levels we saw in the first 2 quarters of this year. As compared to the first half, we anticipate a margin headwind from cost absorption in the second half. We do not expect to build our inventory as we did in the first half and anticipate that there will be some inventory reduction if we continue to see sustained supply chain improvement.

具體到下半年，我們預計今年剩餘幾季的調整後營業利潤率將高於去年同期水平，但將低於今年前兩個季度的水平。與上半年相比，我們預計下半年成本吸收將對利潤率造成不利影響。我們預計不會像上半年那樣增加庫存，如果供應鏈持續改善，庫存量可能會減少。

In addition, spend related to the strategic growth initiatives should continue to ramp. Price realization should remain positive that the magnitude of the favorability versus the prior year is expected to be lower in the second half as we lap the more favorable pricing trends from last year. Therefore, the increases in margins that we have occurred -- that have occurred from price outpacing manufacturing cost inflation should moderate in the second half of this year.

此外，與策略性成長計劃相關的支出應會持續增加。價格實現應保持正成長，預計下半年與上年度相比的利好幅度將有所降低，因為我們將延續去年較有利的定價趨勢。因此，我們因價格上漲超過製造成本上漲而帶來的利潤率成長，應會在今年下半年有所放緩。

Now let's move on to our assumptions that are specific to the third quarter. We anticipate third quarter sales to be higher than the third quarter of 2022, but to exhibit the typical sequential decline when compared to the second quarter of 2023.

現在，我們來談談針對第三季的具體假設。我們預計第三季的銷售額將高於2022年第三季度，但與2023年第二季相比，將出現典型的環比下降。

In Construction Industries, as is our normal seasonal trend, we expect lower sales compared to the second quarter. In Resource Industries, which can be lumpy, we anticipate slightly lower sales compared to the second quarter. We expect sales in Energy & Transportation will increase slightly compared to the second quarter.

建築業方面，我們預計銷售額將較第二季度下降，這與我們的正常季節性趨勢一致。資源產業方面，由於市場波動較大，我們預期銷售額將較第二季略有下降。能源與交通運輸產業的銷售額預計將較第二季略有成長。

Specific to third quarter margins versus the prior year, adjusted operating profit margins at the enterprise level and segment margins should be stronger. However, we do expect lower enterprise adjusted operating profit margins in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of this year on lower volume and impacts from cost absorption. We also anticipate investment spend will ramp across our primary segments as we continue to accelerate our strategic investments in area like autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity and digital and electrification.

具體到第三季與去年同期相比的利潤率，企業層面的調整後營業利潤率和各部門的利潤率應該會更高。然而，由於銷售下降以及成本吸收的影響，我們預計第三季企業層級的調整後營業利潤率將低於今年第二季。我們也預計，隨著我們繼續加快在自動駕駛、替代燃料、互聯互通、數位化和電氣化等領域的策略投資，我們主要部門的投資支出將大幅增加。

At the segment level, for Construction Industries, we expect a lower margin compared to the second quarter as is typical. This is largely due to lower quarter-on-quarter volume, increased investment in strategic initiatives and slightly higher manufacturing costs, including a headwind from cost absorption. Favorable price realization will act as a partial offset.

在建築業細分市場層面，我們預期利潤率將低於第二季度，這很正常。這主要是由於環比銷量下降、策略性舉措投資增加以及製造成本略有上升（包括成本吸收帶來的阻力）。有利的價格實現將部分抵消這些影響。

We also anticipate lower third quarter margins in Resource Industries compared to the second quarter, primarily due to lower volume quarter-on-quarter. Conversely, we expect third quarter margins in Energy & Transportation will be slightly higher compared to the second quarter on higher volume and stronger price realization, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs and spend relating to strategic initiatives.

我們也預期資源產業第三季的利潤率將低於第二季度，主要原因是環比銷量下降。相反，我們預計能源與運輸業第三季度的利潤率將略高於第二季度，這得益於銷量增加和價格實現強勁增長，但製造成本和戰略計劃相關支出的增加部分抵消了這一影響。

Now turning to Slide 17, let me summarize. We generated strong adjusted operating profit margin with a 750 basis point increase to 21.3%. We now expect to be close to the top of the targeted range for adjusted operating margin -- profit margin for the full year based on our expected sales levels.

現在翻到第17張投影片，讓我來總結一下。我們實現了強勁的調整後營業利潤率，成長了750個基點，達到21.3%。我們現在預計，根據我們預期的銷售水平，全年調整後營業利潤率將接近目標區間的上限。

ME&T free cash flow generation was robust at $2.6 billion in the quarter. We returned $2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We now expect ME&T free cash flow to be around the top of our $4 billion to $8 billion range for the full year. Lastly, we continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth.

本季度，ME&T 業務的自由現金流強勁成長，達到 26 億美元。我們透過股票回購和股利向股東返還了 20 億美元。我們目前預計，全年 ME&T 業務的自由現金流將達到 40 億至 80 億美元的上限。最後，我們將繼續執行長期獲利成長策略。

And with that, we'll now take your questions.

現在我們來回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

（操作員指示）您的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jamie Cook。

Hi, Good morning and congrats on a nice quarter.

嗨，早上好，恭喜您本季取得良好業績。

Thanks, Jamie.

謝謝，傑米。

Thanks, Jamie.

謝謝，傑米。

The reason you decided not to retire because you saw these results coming -- that was a compliment. My real question is the first one, based on your performance in the first half of the year and what you're saying for sales and margins for 2023, it looks to me like you can achieve the high end of your margin targets around the 21% on lower sales versus the $72 billion target. So do we need to sort of revisit our targets again and adjust the margins on lower sales? I'm just trying to understand what's going on structurally here? Or is this just all price? I think it's really important for your story.

您之所以決定不退休，是因為您預見了這些業績──這本身就是一種讚美。我真正的問題是第一個問題，根據您今年上半年的業績以及您對2023年銷售額和利潤率的預期，我認為即使銷售額有所下降，您也能實現利潤率目標的上限，也就是21%左右，而不是720億美元的目標。那麼，我們是否需要重新檢視我們的目標，並根據銷售額的下降調整利潤率？我只是想了解這其中的結構性因素？還是說這僅僅是價格因素？我認為這對您的故事來說非常重要。

And then just my second follow-up. On 2024, I know you don't want to guide, but you're sitting here with record backlog. I guess you're saying dealer inventories are going to be slightly higher. Supply chain is going to ease. What's the probability that you think you could potentially grow your EPS in 2024? Or is there anything out there that's giving you caution? And if so, are you pulling any levers.

接下來是我的第二個後續問題。關於2024年，我知道您不想給出預期，但您現在正面臨創紀錄的積壓訂單。我猜您是說經銷商庫存會略高一些。供應鏈將會更加順暢。您認為2024年每股盈餘成長的可能性有多大？或是有什麼因素讓您保持謹慎？如果有，您會採取什麼措施嗎？

Well, thanks, Jamie. And as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we expect our operating profit margin -- adjusted operating profit margin to be close to the top of the targeted range for the year. We will look at our ranges at the end of the year and make an assessment as to what makes sense when moving forward from there. As we look forward to next year, and you mentioned some of the dynamics that are going on, we're closely monitoring economic conditions, but we do feel good about the business. But as I'm sure you know, we're not going to make a '24 prediction at this point.

好的，謝謝，傑米。正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所提到的，我們預期營業利潤率——調整後的營業利潤率——將接近今年目標區間的上限。我們將在年底審視這些區間，並評估如何在此基礎上繼續前進。展望明年，正如您所提到的一些動態，我們正在密切關注經濟狀況，但我們對公司業務確實充滿信心。但我相信您也知道，我們目前不會做出24年的預測。

We will take our next question from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們將從 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso 那裡得到下一個問題。

I'm just curious, the backlog was surprising to me, how strong it was. And I'm just curious, any thoughts around the backlog you can help us with in your framework in the guide for this year on how it moves from here sequentially? Anything unique in the backlog about what percent of it ships in the next 12 months versus normal? Just trying to get a handle on that. And if you could give any early color around pricing for '24 with the base order management program opening up this month. Just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about pricing for '24.

我只是好奇，積壓訂單量如此強勁，讓我很驚訝。您能否在今年的指南框架中，就積壓訂單量如何按順序變化提供一些想法？積壓訂單量有什麼獨特之處嗎？未來12個月內出貨的比例與往常相比是多少？我只是想了解一下。由於基礎訂單管理項目本月開放，您能否透露2024年的定價？只是想了解一下您對2024年的定價有何看法。

Well, thank you, David. And certainly, our backlog does remain healthy. We didn't have a dramatic change quarter-to-quarter. It was up modestly. And of course, backlog includes, of course, everything for Energy & Transportation, Resource Industries and also CI. For the Energy & Transportation and RI projects that are in that backlog, those are typically tied to firm customer orders. Solar has cancellation charge schedules. And so again, we feel good about the quality of the backlog.

好的，謝謝你，David。當然，我們的待辦事項確實保持健康。季度環比變化不大，只是小幅成長。當然，待辦訂單包括能源與運輸、資源產業以及CI的所有項目。對於待辦訂單中的能源與交通和RI項目，這些項目通常與確定的客戶訂單掛鉤。太陽能項目有取消費用計劃。因此，我們對待辦理訂單的品質感到滿意。

In terms of price for next year, as is always the case, we'll assess market conditions. We look at our input costs, and we'll make a call on that later in the year, but it's a bit too early to really predict that.

至於明年的價格，一如既往，我們會評估市場狀況。我們會考慮投入成本，並在今年稍後做出決定，但現在預測還為時過早。

And your next question comes from the line of Michael Feniger with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

Just a broad question on inventories. When investors hear inventories are coming out, there's always concern on the impact to the margins. There were big destocking periods in the second half in years like 2019, 2015, 2012. What makes this second half of the year different from those other destocking periods? Is it less broad-based? Is it the fact that retail sales accelerated that gives you confidence we don't have that type of destocking effect that we've had in prior cycles?

關於庫存，我問一個比較廣泛的問題。投資者聽到庫存即將增加，總是會擔心利潤率會受到影響。 2019年、2015年、2012年等年份的下半年都經歷了大規模的去庫存期。今年下半年與其他去庫存期有何不同？去庫存範圍是否沒有那麼廣泛？是因為零售額加速成長，讓您有信心我們不會像以往週期那樣出現去庫存效應？

Yes. So at that time, Michael, and thanks for the question, obviously, we were in a situation where actually demand was reducing when we did see those inventory reductions from dealers. And what that did mean, obviously, was the production levels were declining much more rapidly, which impacted overall, both leverage as well as absorption.

是的。邁克爾，謝謝你的提問，當時我們確實處於需求下降的境地，這時我們確實看到經銷商的庫存減少。這顯然意味著產量下降得更快，這對整體槓桿率和吸收率都產生了影響。

As we look it out over this period of time, we are still seeing healthy demand as we've indicated. We actually still expect positive sales to users in the second half of the year. What that does mean is when we are making modest inventory adjustments and dealers are making modest inventory adjustments, we are able to absorb that a little bit better than we have done historically.

縱觀這段時間，正如我們之前指出的那樣，我們仍然看到需求健康。實際上，我們仍然預期下半年用戶銷售將保持正成長。這意味著，當我們和經銷商進行適度的庫存調整時，我們能夠比以往更好地消化這些庫存。

The whole point about all of this is, just to remind everybody, we're around the midpoint of the range. We are actually being proactive with our dealers, particularly around things like excavators, where there's a little bit better availability to actually help them reduce inventory at a time when actually demand remains very strong out there in the market.

所有這些的重點是，只是想提醒大家，我們現在的庫存處於區間的中間點。實際上，我們正在積極主動地與經銷商溝通，尤其是在挖土機等產品方面，這些產品的供貨情況會更好一些，這實際上可以幫助他們減少庫存，尤其是在市場需求仍然非常強勁的情況下。

And Andrew, just to put a fine point on it, obviously, dealer retail sales accelerated in the quarter. To inform your view that dealer inventories for the rest of the year, your comfortability around it, do you expect those retail sales to accelerate? Is that your base case? Is it to moderate slightly and remain positive? Just directionally to give us comfortability with the second half, how are your retail sales outlook in the second half informing your view on the inventory levels out there?

安德魯，我想補充一點，顯然，本季經銷商零售額加速成長。為了說明您對今年剩餘時間經銷商庫存的看法，以及您對庫存水準的信心，您預計零售額會加速成長嗎？這是您的基本預測嗎？是會略微放緩並維持正成長嗎？為了讓我們對下半年的銷售情況感到放心，您對下半年零售額的展望如何反映您對庫存水準的看法？

Yes. So if you actually take the view that we expect retail sales to continue to grow in the second half, we're not giving a prediction as to whether they'll accelerate or decelerate. That's all we're going to be saying about that. But just a point is actually, with a dealer inventory reduction and with actually increased retail sales, the levels of inventory that actually dealers hold on a month basis actually would decline by the end of the year. That's how the math works.

是的。所以，如果你真的認為我們預計下半年零售額會繼續成長，我們不會預測它會加速還是減速。關於這一點，我們只能說這麼多。但實際上，隨著經銷商庫存減少，零售額實際增加，到年底，經銷商每月持有的庫存水準實際上會下降。這就是計算過程。

And your next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

So my question is actually on Cat's own inventories. And I know you've got rising sales to deal with, at least so far. But I'm curious, are you still holding safety stock on raw materials and components? Is any of the finished goods waiting on completion? Or is it all just rising sales flowing through? And then just maybe how much cash could come out of inventory if inventories normalize slightly?

所以我的問題其實是關於卡特彼勒自身的庫存。我知道你們的銷售額至少目前還在成長，但我很好奇，你們是否還持有原料和零件的安全庫存？是否有任何成品在等待完工？還是說，所有庫存都只是銷售額的上漲？如果庫存稍微恢復正常，庫存能帶來多少現金流？

Rob, thanks for your question. So certainly, we are still seeing supply chain challenges. As I mentioned earlier, there is an overall improvement but it only takes one part to prevent us from shipping a machine or engine. And so we're still dealing with supply chain constraints around large engines, which impact both E&T and machines. And we also have some issues with things like semiconductors for displays that are impacting other machines as well.

Rob，謝謝你的提問。當然，我們仍然面臨供應鏈挑戰。正如我之前提到的，整體情況有所改善，但只要有一個部件出現問題，就足以阻止我們運送機器或引擎。因此，我們仍然面臨大型引擎的供應鏈限制，這會影響到電子與製造（E&T）和機器。此外，我們也面臨一些問題，例如顯示器半導體，這些問題也影響其他機器。

So to answer your question, our inventory, quite frankly, is a bit higher than I would like. And I do expect over time, as supply chain conditions improve, that we will be able to be more lean and improve our turns. So the good news is that even with our factory not running as lean as we would like and having a bit more inventory internally than we would like, we still, of course, produced very strong cash in the quarter. So I won't quantify how much cash could come out of inventory. But certainly, if, in fact, we were -- when we get back to pre-pandemic levels in the supply chain, we should be able to free up some additional cash.

所以，回答你的問題，坦白說，我們的庫存比我希望的要高一些。我確實預計，隨著時間的推移，隨著供應鏈狀況的改善，我們將能夠更加精簡，提高週轉率。好消息是，即使我們的工廠運作不如我們所希望的那樣精簡，內部庫存也比我們預期的要多一些，我們在本季度仍然創造了非常強勁的現金流。所以我不會量化庫存能帶來多少現金。但可以肯定的是，如果我們真的恢復到疫情前的供應鏈水平，我們應該能夠釋放一些額外的現金。

Since the answer is so well, you look at your margins, it looks like you're crushing operations. And you look at inventory and it's like, well, okay, I understand you've got some pockets where delivery is holded up, any view on the totality of how Cat's managing production flow, factory flow, et cetera? You look at safety, you look at other indicators, you do. I mean what's your assessment? Is this the best you've done? Is there -- are there other problem spots? Just an overall look at how Cat is managing, et cetera? And I'll stop there.

既然答案如此清晰，看看你的利潤率，你會發現營運狀況很糟糕。看看庫存，你會發現，好吧，我知道有些地方交貨延遲了，你對卡特彼勒（Cat）整體上是如何管理生產流程、工廠流程等等的有什麼看法嗎？你也會關注安全和其他指標。我的意思是，你的評估是什麼？這是你做得最好的嗎？還有其他問題嗎？只是對卡特彼勒的管理方式進行整體分析，等等？我就講到這裡。

Thanks, Rob. And certainly, I'm very proud of the team and the strong performance that we're producing. We -- as you know, we put out a new strategy in 2017, and we ask people to have faith in our ability to produce higher operating profit margins and higher and more consistent free cash flow, and I'm really pleased that the team has been able to achieve that. We always have areas that we can do better. I mean, I talked about the fact that we're not as lean as I would like us to be in our manufacturing operations. We're doing a good job growing services, but I always want to grow it faster. So there's always things we can do a better job. But again, just I'm very proud of the team and the fact that we have been able to meet the targets that we set out to our investors a few years ago.

謝謝，羅布。當然，我為我們的團隊和我們所取得的強勁業績感到非常自豪。如你所知，我們在2017年推出了一項新策略，我們希望大家相信我們有能力創造更高的營業利潤率以及更高、更穩定的自由現金流，我很高興團隊能夠做到這一點。我們總是有一些可以做得更好的領域。我的意思是，我之前提到過，我們的製造業務還沒有達到我希望的精簡程度。我們在發展服務業務方面做得很好，但我一直希望它能成長得更快。所以我們總是有一些可以做得更好的地方。但同樣，我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪，也為我們能夠實現幾年前向投資者設定的目標感到非常自豪。

Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞 (Tami Zakaria)。

So going back to backlog, it went up by $300 million sequentially. What exactly drove that? Was it purely driven by pricing? Or did you see a net increase in order volumes in the quarter as well?

回到積壓訂單，季增了3億美元。具體是什麼推動了這項成長？純粹是定價驅動嗎？還是本季訂單量也出現了淨成長？

Yes. So there are a couple of factors. Obviously, price does have some impact overall. And that was probably the major impact on the increase for the quarter. Obviously, volumes fluctuate by quarter by quarter and depend on availability. But overall, we're pleased that the backlog is holding at healthy levels.

是的。所以有幾個因素。顯然，價格整體上確實有影響。這可能是本季成長的主要影響因素。當然，交易量每季都會波動，取決於供應情況。但總體而言，我們很高興看到積壓訂單保持在健康水平。

And maybe just one additional comment there. Honestly, some customers are waiting longer for products than I would like. And so backlog is a function, of course, of demand, but it's also a function of our ability to ship. So as in fact, supply chain conditions ease and we're able to ship more quickly, customers shouldn't have to wait as long for certain products, which should bring our backlog down. So again, a declining backlog wouldn't be a bad thing if, in fact, it's the result of our ability to shorten lead times and improve availability.

也許還有一點補充。說實話，有些客戶等待產品的時間比我希望的要長。所以，積壓訂單量當然取決於需求，但也取決於我們的出貨能力。事實上，隨著供應鏈狀況的改善，我們能夠更快地出貨，客戶應該可以減少某些產品的等待時間，這應該會降低我們的積壓訂單量。所以，如果積壓訂單量下降實際上是我們縮短交貨週期和提高供貨能力的結果，那麼這並非壞事。

Got it. If I can ask a quick follow-up, for the back half is it fair to assume price realization goes down to, let's say, mid- to high single-digit growth, do you have any incremental pricing planned for later this year?

明白了。我可以快速問一下嗎？對於下半年，是否可以假設價格實現下降到中高個位數成長？今年晚些時候，你們有任何增量定價計劃嗎？

Yes. So obviously, we've seen very strong price as you've seen through the year. Obviously, we expect that to reduce as we go through the second half. If you take a function of lapping price increases, I think you'd get closer to a -- is a single-digit number. Obviously, we don't estimate that by quarter. But yes, the price range will come down as we move through the remainder of the year.

是的。如您所見，我們今年的價格走勢非常強勁。當然，我們預計下半年價格會有所回落。如果採用疊加價格上漲的函數，我認為價格會更接近個位數。當然，我們不會按季度估算。但是，隨著今年剩餘時間的推移，價格區間會下降。

Can I just remind everybody please? Can we just ask 1 question so that we can get through everybody on the queue just out of courtesy for your other analysts out there, please?

我可以提醒大家一下嗎？為了方便其他分析師提問，我們能不能只問一個問題，好讓所有在場的分析師都回答完？

And we will move to our next question from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們將轉到德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase 提出的下一個問題。

Just on the retail sales trends this quarter, there was a deterioration across like both of the machines businesses in EAME. Can you just talk about what you're seeing from that region? I think there have been some indications of a little bit of slowing in Europe. So would love to hear what's capturing on the ground.

就本季的零售銷售趨勢而言，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的兩家機械公司都出現了整體下滑。您能談談該地區的情況嗎？我認為歐洲已經出現了一些放緩的跡象。所以很想了解一下實際情況。

Yes, we have seen a bit of slowing in Europe, as I mentioned, but Middle East is quite strong. So it's a mixed bag there. So we're seeing a lot of strong construction activity in the Middle East, a lot of nonresidential construction projects going on but we have -- we are seeing a bit of weakness in Europe around construction.

是的，正如我所提到的，我們看到歐洲經濟放緩，但中東地區則相當強勁。所以那裡的情況好壞參半。我們看到中東地區有許多強勁的建築活動，許多非住宅建築項目正在進行中，但我們看到歐洲的建築業略顯疲軟。

(Operator Instructions) We will move to our next question from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

（操作員指示）我們將轉到 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann 提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to just ask a little bit about productivity because I guess I'm hearing you say that supply chain is improving, but there's still issues. Are there still kind of productivity headwinds or penalties that you're paying in the factories because the supply chain is not yet as smooth as we'd like it to be? And obviously, I'm trying to think about whether there's some margin opportunity when supply chains -- when and if supply chains are sort of normal again.

我想問一下關於生產力的問題，因為我大概聽您說過供應鏈正在改善，但仍然存在一些問題。由於供應鏈尚未達到我們所希望的水平，你們工廠是否仍有生產力上的阻力或損失？顯然，我正在思考，當供應鏈恢復正常時，是否還存在一些利潤成長機會。

Yes. As I mentioned, because we do have some supply chain constraints, overall, the situation has improved, there's no question. But it's like we've gone to 6 pages of shortages for certain machine. It's down to 1 page that's an improvement, but you still have some shortages that you have to deal with and has not allowed us to operate our factories as lean as we have in the past and as lean as I would like them. So again, I do expect that as supply chain conditions ease in the future, we should be able to get back to running our factories with more just-in-time manufacturing, leaner, which should help us reduce -- increase inventory turns and reduce the amount of absolute inventory we hold based on a current level of sales. So an opportunity to answer your question.

是的。正如我所提到的，由於我們確實存在一些供應鏈限制，總體而言，情況有所改善，這是毫無疑問的。但就像我們之前列出的某款機器的缺貨清單上寫著6頁一樣。現在減少到1頁，這是一個進步，但仍然有一些缺貨需要處理，這使得我們無法像過去那樣精益地運營工廠，也無法像我希望的那樣精益運營。因此，我再次預計，隨著未來供應鏈狀況的緩解，我們應該能夠恢復工廠的運營，更多地採用即時生產，更加精益，這應該有助於我們降低——提高庫存週轉率，並減少基於當前銷售水平的絕對庫存量。所以，這是一個回答您問題的機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

Just a question on parts -- yes, just on parts. I guess we can broaden it to Cat across the board. But specifically, I was interested in the comment on RI for down volumes. Is that just maybe a function of kind of prioritizing whole goods just in light of the constrained availability? Or is that -- I would imagine there's notch by way of destocking going on with the dealer. So maybe just any more comments you have just on that comment on parts volumes in RI.

只是關於零件的問題——是的，只是關於零件。我想我們可以把這個問題擴展到卡特彼勒（Cat）的所有產品。但具體來說，我對RI（庫存減少）銷售的評論很感興趣。這是否只是考慮到庫存有限，優先考慮整車產品？或者——我猜經銷商正在通過去庫存的方式進行調整。所以，關於RI（庫存減少）的零件銷量，您還有什麼評論嗎？

Maybe just to start with overall. So certainly, the services sales were up year-over-year, and we have seen fluctuations in dealer buying patterns, which impacts volumes. Services, dealer sales to customers were up in the quarter, and availability has improved. So our ability to ship parts to our dealers has improved, and that has had an impact on it as well. So again, not concerned about it, but it really is just a function of as our availability improves, dealers oftentimes conclude they're able to hold a bit less inventory, which will have an impact.

也許先從整體來看。服務銷售額確實年增，我們也看到經銷商的購買模式出現波動，影響了銷售量。服務銷售額、經銷商對客戶的銷售額在本季都有所成長，且供貨情況也有所改善。因此，我們向經銷商運送零件的能力有所提高，這也對銷售產生了影響。所以，我再說一遍，我並不擔心這一點，但這實際上只是隨著我們供貨情況的改善，經銷商往往會認為他們可以減少庫存，這會產生影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

您的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Chad Dillard。

So I wanted to focus mainly on Construction Industries. And I just wanted to get a better sense of -- for your orders that came in the quarter, can you just give us a rough breakdown between retail versus stock? And then, look, as you're thinking about like inventory shift, you do that really helpful stat about 70% is retail for E&T and Resource Industries. Could you do the same for Construction Industries?

所以我想主要關注建築業。我想更了解一下——對於您本季收到的訂單，您能否粗略地將零售和庫存進行細分？然後，您說的庫存週轉率，您有一個非常有用的統計數據，大約70%的工程技術（E&T）和資源行業訂單來自零售。您能對建築業做同樣的統計嗎？

Yes. So when we talk about it -- I mean, obviously, we don't break down what dealers take the orders for between retail and stock in CI. A significant proportion of the purchases they make are based on customer orders, particularly if there is a degree of customization that is needed. And there will be some where once the machine has actually been delivered to the dealer, they will have a number of things or attachments put on, which will impact the timing of commissioning. So there's a little bit of commissioning within CI, but obviously, it's nowhere near around the 70% plus that we talked about for E&T and for Resource Industries.

是的。所以當我們談論這個問題時——我的意思是，顯然，我們不會細分經銷商在CI中接的零售訂單和庫存訂單。他們很大一部分的採購是基於客戶訂單，尤其是在需要一定程度客製化的情況下。而且，在機器實際交付給經銷商後，他們可能會安裝一些配件或配件，這會影響調試時間。所以CI內部確實有一些調試工作，但顯然，遠不及我們之前提到的E&T和資源工業70%以上的水準。

What we are seeing, as I indicated, is there are patches, particularly in BCP and earthmoving, where dealers are constrained and actually would like to have more inventory available to them, and that impacts their orders. So obviously, orders in those segments are -- those divisions are much stronger. Obviously, with excavators, and excavator as an impact of what's happening, particularly, say, for example, in China, where, obviously, demand is reduced, that means we have more availability. And dealers would like to decrease their inventory of excavators accordingly. So it's a bit of a mixed pattern. But as I say, we only have for Construction Industries, dealers only have 3.5 months of inventory on hand, and that percentage will actually decrease around by the time we get to the year-end.

正如我所指出的，我們看到的是，在某些領域，尤其是在建築工程和土方工程領域，經銷商庫存受限，實際上希望擁有更多庫存，這會影響他們的訂單。所以顯然，這些領域的訂單——這些部門的訂單強勁得多。顯然，挖土機也受到了當前情況的影響，尤其是在中國，需求明顯減少，這意味著我們的庫存量增加了。經銷商也希望能相應地減少挖土機的庫存。所以這是一個混合的模式。但正如我所說，我們只針對建築業，經銷商的庫存只有3.5個月，到年底，這個比例實際上會下降。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的史蒂文費雪。

Wonder if you could talk a little bit more about the drivers of the broad oil and gas segment. Where do you think we are in the kind of the rebuild cycle of equipment there? To what extent do you need rig counts to rebound to keep the current level of revenue sustained? Or are there really other drivers with this segment to be aware of? It was obviously a very strong acceleration of sales to users. So just kind of curious for color on the drivers and the longevity of the strong trend in the segment.

您能否再多談談石油和天然氣產業的驅動因素。您認為我們目前處於設備重建週期的哪個階段？需要鑽井數量反彈到什麼程度才能維持目前的收入水準？或者說，該行業還有其他值得關注的驅動因素嗎？顯然，用戶銷售額的成長非常強勁。所以我很想知道驅動因素的具體情況，以及該行業強勁趨勢的持續時間。

Well, Steven, we're certainly not dependent upon rig counts to drive oil and gas. It's just one element of the -- one of the applications that we sell into. So as I mentioned earlier, we are encouraged by the strong demand that continues for gas compression for Cat-branded reciprocating engines. That's quite positive. We have seen a bit of slowing in well servicing, but that's expected to increase again based on most analyst views over the coming months.

嗯，史蒂文，我們當然不依賴鑽機數量來推動石油和天然氣的開採。這只是我們銷售應用的一部分。正如我之前提到的，Cat品牌往復式引擎對氣體壓縮的持續強勁需求令我們感到鼓舞。這是非常正面的訊號。我們已經看到油井服務業務放緩，但根據大多數分析師的觀點，預計未來幾個月油井服務業務將再次回升。

Solar continues to have quite robust sales into a number of oil and gas applications, including gas compression, but also offshore platforms and international business as well. So again, at this point, oil and gas certainly looks strong. And in some areas, we're quite bullish on what we see moving forward.

Solar 在眾多油氣應用領域（包括氣體壓縮、海上平台和國際業務）的銷售持續強勁成長。因此，目前來看，油氣市場確實表現強勁。在某些領域，我們對未來的發展非常樂觀。

Your next question comes from the line of Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer.

您的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的克里斯汀歐文。

I wanted to come back to a question on pricing. First, for the second quarter, if you can help us understand what's supporting the strength there. I think that was a little bit ahead of where we were expecting price to be. Is that a function of mix or just the better-than-expected end-user demand? And then as we think about that stepping down through the back half of the year, to get to that single-digit number that you outlined on a previous answer, just how we should think about the cadence of that stepping down throughout the remainder of the year?

我想回到關於定價的問題。首先，對於第二季度，您能否幫助我們了解支撐價格上漲的因素是什麼？我認為價格略高於我們的預期。這是產品組合的影響，還是只是終端使用者需求比預期好？然後，考慮到下半年價格會逐漸下降，達到您之前提到的個位數，那麼我們應該如何看待今年剩餘時間價格下降的節奏呢？

Yes. So price realization was about in line with our expectations. And certainly, as we look at price, the price we realize is a function of a whole variety of things. You mentioned mix, but a lot of it has to do with, of course, the competitive situation that we and our dealers are facing in a particular market.

是的。所以價格實現大致符合我們的預期。當然，當我們考慮價格時，我們實現的價格取決於多種因素。您提到了組合，但這很大程度上與我們和經銷商在特定市場面臨的競爭狀況有關。

So we saw significant increases in price in the second half of last year, and that will lap in the second half of 2023, but we still expect to benefit from positive price in the second half, but it will moderate and certainly understandable based on that -- again, those strong price increases in the second half of last year. And as always, we'll continue to monitor the global price environment, and we'll determine if actions need to be taken.

因此，我們看到去年下半年價格大幅上漲，這種上漲趨勢將在2023年下半年延續。我們仍預期下半年價格將上漲，但漲幅將會放緩，而且基於去年下半年價格強勁上漲的因素，漲幅肯定是可以理解的。像往常一樣，我們將繼續關注全球價格環境，並確定是否需要採取行動。

And just, Kristen, just to add on. Just if you recall last year, price continues to improve from the third to the fourth quarter. So you probably should see the reverse of that this year, which price will be slightly stronger in the third versus the fourth.

克里斯汀，我補充一下。如果你還記得的話，去年價格從第三季到第四季持續上漲。所以今年的情況可能會相反，第三季的價格會比第四季略高一些。

And your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的米格·多布雷 (Mig Dobre)。

Just a quick clarification based on the way you're kind of thinking about the dealer inventory destock in the back half. In order to make that happen, do you have to adjust production sequentially in any way? Maybe you can comment on that? And then related to this, your manufacturing cost, the $283 million drag, should we think that this drag lessens in the back half? And could that actually be a positive benefit as we think about the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis?

就您關於下半年經銷商庫存減少的設想，我簡單解釋一下。為了實現這一目標，您是否需要以某種方式逐步調整生產？您能否對此發表一下看法？與此相關的是，您的製造成本，也就是2.83億美元的拖累，我們是否應該認為下半年的拖累會減輕？如果我們以同比來看第四季度，這實際上會是一個積極的利好嗎？

Yes. So first of all, on this, obviously, production level, as we've indicated from beginning of the year, last year, we did see, if you remember, production was rising throughout the whole year as we went through the year as the supply chain started to improve. That, particularly in construction, will be slightly different this year. And that obviously, we will see some headwind as we do see some dealer inventory reduction in the second half. We are already making production adjustments as we move on. That's part of the business. We do that day in, day out. And those will continue, and there will be some impact in the second half of the year. But overall, we still expect positive revenues through that period of time for Caterpillar as a whole.

是的。首先，就生產水準而言，正如我們從年初就指出的那樣，去年，隨著供應鏈開始改善，我們確實看到產量全年都在成長。今年，尤其是在建築業，情況會略有不同。顯然，我們會遇到一些阻力，因為下半年經銷商的庫存會減少。我們已經在逐步進行生產調整。這是業務的一部分，我們日復一日地這樣做。這些調整將持續下去，並對下半年產生一些影響。但總體而言，我們仍然預期卡特彼勒整體在此期間的收入將為正值。

Talking about manufacturing costs. Yes, manufacturing costs will decrease, but obviously price benefit will reduce as well. So the net of the 2 will mean we won't see quite that margin improvement that we did see as we went through the last 4 quarters. So yes, we still expect price to offset manufacturing costs in the second half of the year. Manufacturing costs will reduce and so will price as well. So no real benefit to margins as we think through the remainder of the year.

說到製造成本。是的，製造成本會下降，但價格優勢顯然也會減弱。因此，扣除成本和成本後，利潤率將不會像過去四個季度那樣大幅提升。所以，我們還是會預期下半年價格會抵銷製造成本。製造成本會下降，價格也會下降。因此，考慮到今年剩餘時間，利潤率不會有真正的提升。

And just to expand upon the answer, we talked earlier about the fact that there is enough excavator dealer inventory out there. So we certainly would expect to produce less excavators, as an example, in the next 6 months. And we also mentioned the fact that we're going to have some changeovers in some of our BCP products where we're switching to Cat engines, which is certainly the right thing to do for the long term and growing services. But that will have an impact on production as well during the last 6 months of the year. But keep in mind that we have said, we now expect to be close to the top of our targeted range for adjusted operating profit margin. So that all goes into the mix.

為了進一步闡述這個問題，我們之前提到過，挖土機經銷商庫存充足。因此，我們預計未來6個月挖土機產量肯定會減少。我們也提到，我們將對部分BCP產品進行一些轉換，改用Cat引擎。這對於長期發展和不斷增長的服務無疑是正確的選擇。但這也會對今年下半年的生產產生影響。但請記住，我們之前說過，我們現在預計調整後的營業利潤率將接近目標區間的上限。所以，所有這些都會影響到整體業績。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson.

您的下一個問題來自 D.A. Davidson 的 Mike Shlisky。

Historically, prior to the pandemic, your operating margins in the fourth quarter were usually a bit of a step downward compared to the third quarter. That's mainly construction and resource. I think it got a little off better than the last couple of years, obviously, for a few reasons. But I was wondering if you could tell us whether you will be back to that sort of more normal seasonality on margins here in the second half of this year or if operationally, these have kind of changed permanently here?

從歷史上看，在疫情爆發之前，你們第四季的營業利潤率通常會比第三季略有下降。這主要體現在建築和資源方面。我認為由於一些原因，今年的利潤率比過去幾年略有好轉。但我想請問，今年下半年你們的利潤率是否會恢復到更正常的季節性變化？或者，從營運角度來看，利潤率是否已經發生了永久性的變化？

No. I think that definitely, we would expect a step down in margins in the fourth quarter in both, particularly in Construction as is the normal seasonal trend. It does tend to be the lower production period. Also, just as Jim mentioned, we will have the impact of the BCP changeover, which will impact us slightly more stronger in the fourth quarter. So there will be some impact as we move through the fourth quarter.

不。我認為，我們肯定會預期第四季這兩個部門的利潤率都會下降，尤其是建築部門，這是正常的季節性趨勢。這通常意味著生產週期較短。另外，正如Jim所提到的，我們會受到BCP轉換的影響，這將在第四季度對我們的影響略微更大。因此，隨著第四季度的推進，我們肯定會受到一些影響。

And your next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Matt Elkott。

Kind of a higher-level question on nonresidential construction. Good to see the tailwinds of the infrastructure packages continuing to materialize. But can you help us gauge what innings you think we're in with these tailwinds? Can we expect like an acceleration next year or just steady?

這個問題比較高深，是關於非住宅建築的。很高興看到基礎建設計劃帶來的利多持續顯現。您能否幫助我們評估一下，您認為我們目前處於什麼樣的發展階段？明年我們能預期會出現加速成長，還是保持穩定？

Yes. Thanks for your question. I'm going to try to avoid a baseball analogy here. But as I mentioned earlier, we are starting to see some benefit of the numerous infrastructure bills that have passed. Some of that is coming from the states. But as you can imagine, permitting takes time for a number of projects. And it's, as you can imagine, very difficult to judge exactly how long that permitting process will take and how this will play out. But I do expect it to last for some time. Difficult for me to estimate, all right, what will the acceleration be in a 6-month or 1-year period. But again, it's a very positive thing for us, and it's a positive thing for our customers that we have these projects coming down the pipe.

是的，謝謝你的提問。我盡量避免用棒球來打比方。但正如我之前提到的，我們開始看到許多已通過的基礎設施法案帶來的一些好處。其中一些來自各州。但正如你所想像的，許多專案的審批都需要時間。而且，正如你所想像的，很難判斷審批過程究竟需要多長時間以及最終結果如何。但我確實預計它會持續一段時間。我很難估計，在六個月或一年的時間內，審批速度會有多快。但再次強調，這些專案的陸續啟動對我們和我們的客戶來說都是一件非常正面的事情。

And your next question comes from the line of Stanley Elliott with Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Stanley Elliott。

A quick question on the cash flow. You guys have pretty been consistent about discussing returning all the free cash. You have basically, let's call it, another kind of $4 billion, $5 billion at run rate in the back half of the year. Should we think of all of that going back to share repurchases or using for other investments? Any thoughts there would be great.

關於現金流，我問個簡單問題。你們一直在討論返還所有自由現金。今年下半年，你們基本上又獲得了40億到50億美元的現金。我們應該考慮把這些現金全部用於股票回購還是其他投資？有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. As we said, our intent is to return substantially all of our ME&T free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases over time. We do maintain a healthy balance sheet for a whole variety of reasons. When we went into COVID in 2020, I was very pleased that we had a strong balance sheet. We also have increased our dividend since we introduced our new capital allocation strategy. In May of 2019, we've increased the quarterly dividend per share by 51% since that period of time. So again, we're proud of our Aristocrat status. So certainly wouldn't be surprised. It's a Board decision, both if we continue to increase our dividend and continue to share repurchases as well.

是的。正如我們所說，我們的目標是透過股利和股票回購，將我們幾乎所有的ME&T自由現金流返還給股東。出於各種原因，我們確實保持健康的資產負債表。 2020年新冠疫情爆發時，我很高興我們有強勁的資產負債表。自從推出新的資本配置策略以來，我們也增加了股利。自2019年5月以來，我們的季度每股股利增加了51%。再次強調，我們為自己的貴族地位感到自豪。所以當然不會感到驚訝。這由董事會決定，無論是我們是否繼續增加股息，還是是否繼續回購股票。

And today's final question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

今天的最後一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

Jim, I'm wondering if you could just expand on your comments in mining. Your biggest competitor in trucks is posting 250% book-to-bill. I'm wondering if you're seeing that level of bookings activity? And are we finally at a point where we're hitting the sweet spot of that replacement cycle for what we delivered a decade ago? Or are there some idiosyncratic ebbs and flows in the data points?

吉姆，我想問您能否進一步談談您在採礦業方面的看法。您在卡車領域最大的競爭對手的訂單出貨比高達250%。我想知道您是否也看到了這種程度的訂單活動？我們是否終於達到了十年前交付的車輛更新周期的最佳點？還是說，數據點中存在一些特殊的波動？

Certainly, as we've talked about many times, mining is kind of a lumpy business quarter-to-quarter. And our mining customers are remaining capital disciplined. What we've talked about for some time is what we expect is a gradual increase over time in our mining business, and that's certainly the way it's played out. Certainly, at the moment, large truck sales, our activity, that activity is robust. That quotation activity is quite robust, and some other products, not quite as strong. But again, just based on what we see required in terms of commodity production increases to support the energy transition. We feel very good about that business.

當然，正如我們多次提到的，採礦業的季度表現不穩定。我們的採礦客戶仍然嚴格控制資金。我們一段時間以來一直在談論的是，我們預計採礦業務會隨著時間的推移逐漸增長，而目前的情況確實如此。目前，我們的大型卡車銷售活動非常強勁。報價活動也相當活躍，但其他一些產品的表現則不那麼強勁。但同樣，僅基於我們所看到的，支持能源轉型所需的大宗商品產量成長。我們對這項業務感到非常樂觀。

We do believe quite strongly that we have the best autonomous mining solutions. We now have about 600 autonomous trucks in operation around the world. And one of the great things that's happened is that we've been able to reduce the cost such that now, a smaller mine can make a capital investment to put autonomy. And so when we're talking to miners now, autonomy is almost always part of that discussion. We're down to about 12 to 14 trucks. But mine is about 12 to 14 trucks. It could pencil to put autonomy, and we've actually seen mines adapt autonomy with that low number of trucks.

我們堅信，我們擁有最佳的自動化採礦解決方案。目前，我們在全球營運約600輛自動化卡車。其中一件很棒的事情是，我們能夠降低成本，即使是規模較小的礦山，也能投入資金來實施自動化。因此，現在我們與礦工溝通時，自動化幾乎總是討論的一部分。我們的卡車數量減少到大約12到14輛。但我的礦場就有大約12到14輛。這可以預估是否能實施自動化，而且我們確實看到一些礦場在卡車數量如此之少的情況下就採用了自動化。

So we're quite bullish about what we see coming in again, and we're leveraging that autonomous solutions, whether it's in iron ore, copper, gold, oilsands, a whole variety of applications. But again, we're certainly long-term bullish about that business.

因此，我們對未來充滿信心，並且正在充分利用這些自主解決方案，無論是在鐵礦石、銅、金、油砂或其他各種應用領域。我們當然對這項業務的長期前景充滿信心。

All right. Well -- so if I can, I'd like to thank you all for joining us, and we certainly appreciate your questions. Again, I want to thank our global team one more time for just an outstanding quarter. And to reiterate, based on our strong operating performance due to the strong results that we achieved in the second quarter, we now believe that 2023 will be even better than we had previously anticipated during our last earnings call. That includes higher full year expectations for adjusted operating profit margin, ME&T free cash flow, which, again, reflects that continuing healthy customer demand and our performance. Please stay safe. Thanks for your interest.

好的。如果可以的話，我想感謝大家的參與，我們也非常感謝大家的提問。再次感謝我們全球團隊的出色表現，感謝你們在本季的出色表現。再次強調，基於我們第二季的強勁業績，我們相信2023年的業績將比我們上次財報電話會議的預期更加出色。這包括對調整後營業利潤率、ME&T自由現金流的全年預期更高，這再次反映了持續健康的客戶需求和我們的業績。請大家注意安全。感謝您的關注。

Thanks, Jim, Andrew and everyone who joined us today. A replay of our call will be available online later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on our Investor Relations website as soon as it's available. You'll also find the second quarter results video with our CFO and an SEC filing with our sales to users data. Click on investors.caterpillar.com and then click on Financials to view those materials.

謝謝吉姆、安德魯以及今天加入我們的各位。今天上午晚些時候，我們將在線提供電話會議的重播。會議記錄一經發布，我們也會立即在投資人關係網站上發布。您還可以找到我們首席財務官主持的第二季度業績視頻，以及一份包含我們用戶銷售數據的美國證券交易委員會文件。點擊 investors.caterpillar.com，然後點擊「財務」即可查看這些資料。

If you have any questions, please reach out to Rob or me. Investor Relations general phone number is (309) 675-4549. Now let's turn it back over to Abby to conclude our call.

如果您有任何疑問，請聯絡Rob或我。投資者關係總機電話是(309) 675-4549。現在，請Abby繼續我們的通話。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call today and thank you for joining. You may all disconnect.

謝謝大家。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，感謝各位的參與。各位可以斷開連接了。