美國銀行 (BAC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Bank of America Earnings Announcement. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call may be recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎來到美國銀行財報。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話可能會被錄音。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's conference over to Lee McEntire.

現在我很高興將今天的會議交給李·麥肯泰爾。

Good morning. Welcome, and thank you for joining the call to review our fourth quarter and full year results. We know it's a busy day for all of you. As usual, our earnings release documents are available on the Investor Relations section of the bankofamerica.com website.

早安.歡迎並感謝您參加電話會議，回顧我們第四季和全年的業績。我們知道這對你們所有人來說都是忙碌的一天。與往常一樣，我們的收益發布文件可在bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分取得。

And they include the earnings presentation that we will be referring to during this call. I trust everybody's had a chance to review the documents. I'll first turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Moynihan, for some opening comments before Alastair Borthwick, our CFO, discusses the details of the quarter.

其中包括我們將在本次電話會議中提及的收益報告。我相信每個人都有機會查看這些文件。在我們的財務長 Alastair Borthwick 討論本季的細節之前，我將首先將電話轉給我們的執行長 Brian Moynihan，徵求一些開場白。

Let me just remind you that we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause our actual results to materially differ from those expectations are detailed in our earnings materials and the SEC filings that are available on our website. Information about our non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to U.S. GAAP, can also be found in our earnings materials and our website.

我只是提醒您，我們可能會在電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述並參考非公認會計準則財務指標。前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。我們網站上提供的獲利資料和 SEC 文件中詳細介紹了可能導致我們的實際結果與預期有重大差異的因素。有關我們的非公認會計原則財務指標的信息，包括與美國公認會計原則的調節，也可以在我們的收益材料和網站中找到。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to you, Brian. Thank you very much.

那麼，我會把電話轉給你，布萊恩。非常感謝。

Thank you, and happy New Year to everyone. Good morning. Thank you for joining us. I'm starting on Slide 2 of the earnings presentation. Here at Bank of America, our teammates finished 2023 with a solid fourth quarter. Reported EPS was $0.35, but that included 2 notable items that Alastair will describe in more detail.

謝謝大家，祝大家新年快樂。早安.感謝您加入我們。我從收益簡報的幻燈片 2 開始。在美國銀行，我們的隊友以穩健的第四季結束了 2023 年。報告的每股收益為 0.35 美元，但這包括阿拉斯泰爾將更詳細描述的 2 個值得注意的項目。

Adjusted for those 2 items, net income was $5.9 billion after tax or $0.70 per share. Before Alastair covers quarter 4 results, I want to take a moment and briefly review the 2023 full year results.

對這兩項進行調整後，稅後淨利為 59 億美元，即每股 0.70 美元。在阿拉斯泰爾介紹第四季業績之前，我想花點時間簡要回顧一下 2023 年全年業績。

Our team at Bank of America delivered strong profits for shareholders across a challenging year, navigating a slowing economy, geopolitical tensions, bank failures and the impact of a rate hike of historic speed. We began the year with a portentous aura, as economists predicted a mild recession within the year. Instead, 2023 showcased economic resilience led by U.S. consumers, despite higher interest rates.

我們美國銀行的團隊在充滿挑戰的一年中為股東帶來了豐厚的利潤，應對經濟放緩、地緣政治緊張局勢、銀行倒閉以及歷史性升息的影響。我們以一種不祥的氣氛開始了這一年，因為經濟學家預測年內將出現溫和的衰退。相反，儘管利率上升，2023 年仍顯示出美國消費者主導的經濟韌性。

We ended 2023 with economists projecting the Fed has successfully steered the U.S. economy to a soft landing. In regards to the economy, during 2023, we consistently made a few points regarding what we were seeing in our customer data here at Bank of America. First, the year-over-year growth rate and spending from the beginning of '23 started declining. And it went from in the early part of '23 over the early part of '22 from a 9% to 10% growth rate to this quarter's 4% to 5% growth rate and that's where it stands here early in 2024. You can see that on Page -- Slide 29 in the appendix. That growth rate, 4% to 5% is more consistent with the 2% GDP environment in a lower inflation environment.

2023 年結束時，經濟學家預測聯準會已成功引導美國經濟軟著陸。就經濟而言，2023 年期間，我們始終就美國銀行客戶資料中所看到的情況提出幾點觀點。首先，年成長率和支出從2023年初開始下降。從 23 世紀初期到 22 世紀初期，成長率從 9% 到 10% 到本季的 4% 到 5% 成長率，這就是 2024 年初的情況。你可以看到附錄第 29 頁投影片上的內容。 4%至5%的成長率更符合較低通膨環境下2%的GDP環境。

Second, the point we've made is that our consumer deposit balances at Bank of America remain 30% higher than pre-pandemic. We saw the deposit balance of consumer accounts move lower this quarter, but are now seeing more differentiation in the behavior. In the lower average balance size accounts, the balances in there still remain at multiples of pre-pandemic levels, nearly 3 years past the last stimulus. They are modestly declining. The deposit outflows you've seen in consumer have largely been driven by the higher balance accounts, who moved their excess balances into the markets to seek higher yields.

其次，我們指出的一點是，我們在美國銀行的消費者存款餘額仍比疫情前高出 30%。我們看到本季消費者帳戶的存款餘額下降，但現在看到行為有更多差異。在平均餘額規模較低的帳戶中，其餘額仍維持在疫情前水準的倍數，距離上次刺激措施已過去近三年。他們正在小幅下降。您在消費者中看到的存款外流很大程度上是由較高餘額帳戶推動的，這些帳戶將超額餘額轉移到市場以尋求更高的收益率。

We capture those with our leading wealth platform. Third, the consumers of Bank of America have had access to credit and not borrowing responsibly. Their balance sheets are generally in good shape and while impacted by higher rates, remember, many of them have fixed rate mortgages and remain employed, so they've shown great resilience.

我們透過領先的財富平台抓住這些人。第三，美國銀行的消費者可以獲得信貸，但不負責任地借貸。他們的資產負債表總體狀況良好，儘管受到利率上升的影響，但請記住，他們中的許多人擁有固定利率抵押貸款並繼續就業，因此他們表現出了巨大的彈性。

Let's move to discussion of full year 2023 earnings. We reported net income of $26.5 billion after tax, which includes $2.8 billion after tax for notable quarter 4 items. Adjusted for those items, adjusted net income was $29.3 billion after tax. Earnings per share were $3.42, and that grew 7% over 2022. On net adjusted basis, we generated a 90 basis point return on assets and a 15% return on tangible common equity.

讓我們開始討論 2023 年全年收益。我們報告的稅後淨利潤為 265 億美元，其中包括第四季度值得注意的項目的稅後 28 億美元。在這些項目進行調整後，調整後的稅後淨利為 293 億美元。每股收益為 3.42 美元，比 2022 年增長 7%。在調整後的淨值基礎上，我們實現了 90 個基點的資產回報率和 15% 的有形普通股回報率。

The year 2023 was characterized by a record organic customer activity. Record digital customer engagement levels and satisfaction scores. Strong but slowing NII during the course of the year, strong sales and trading, up 7% year-over-year. Operating leverage reflect a good expense discipline, solid asset quality and a strong capital and liquidity position. All of this was helped by the years of Bank of America's assiduous dedication to responsible growth. This helped us bring our headcount and expense down every quarter during 2023 in line was what we told you expect early this year -- early last year.

2023 年的特點是有機客戶活動創紀錄。記錄數位客戶參與度和滿意度分數。全年 NII 強勁但放緩，銷售和交易強勁，較去年同期成長 7%。經營槓桿反映了良好的費用紀律、穩健的資產品質以及強大的資本和流動性狀況。這一切都得益於美國銀行多年來孜孜不倦地致力於負責任的成長。這幫助我們在 2023 年每個季度減少了員工人數和費用，這與我們在今年年初（去年初）告訴您的預期一致。

Adjusted full year revenue grew 5% on the back of 9% NII improvement and strong asset management fees and sales and trading results. We achieved 170 basis points of operating leverage in 2023 as heightened quarterly expense levels were driven lower throughout the year even as the investments in growth continued.

由於 9% 的 NII 改善以及強勁的資產管理費用以及銷售和交易業績，調整後的全年收入增長了 5%。 2023 年，儘管成長投資仍在繼續，但全年季度費用水準的上升導致了較低的營運槓桿，我們的營運槓桿達到了 170 個基點。

Net charge-offs moved higher through the year after historic lows, but they still compare very favorably against historic averages. One last point worth noting is the level of deposits. If you think back, as we ended 2022 and entered 2023, the great debate was how much the pandemic surge in deposits would dissipate. But look -- looking today, we ended 2023 with $1.924 trillion of deposits, only $7 billion less than we had at year end '22 and 4% higher than the trough in May of this year.

淨沖銷額在創下歷史低點後全年有所上升，但與歷史平均值相比仍然非常有利。最後一點值得注意的是存款水準。回想一下，當我們結束 2022 年並進入 2023 年時，一場大辯論是，大流行導致的存款激增會消散多少。但看看今天，我們到 2023 年底的存款為 1.924 兆美元，僅比 22 年底減少 70 億美元，比今年 5 月的低點高出 4%。

The total deposit -- the total average deposits in the fourth quarter remained 35% higher than they did in the quarter 4, 2019. This has been tremendous work by our teams to drive our industry-leading market share, actually outperforming the industry across the 4-year period and again this year. While the economy appears to continue to normalize and rates continue to have some volatility, one thing that remains important is driving that organic growth. This client activity stick to the ribs is what we want to spend a moment as I wrap up.

存款總額—第四季度的平均存款總額仍比 2019 年第四季高出 35%。我們的團隊為此付出了巨大的努力，以推動我們行業領先的市場份額，實際上優於整個行業。四年一次，今年又如此。儘管經濟似乎繼續正常化，利率繼續出現一定波動，但仍然重要的一件事是推動有機成長。在我總結時，我們想花一點時間來了解這種客戶活動的重要性。

On Slide 3, we highlight some of the successes in organic activity in our results for the year. Bank of America team is a powerful engine that is fueling results across all our businesses. I would note a couple of examples to try and connect the important to our financials. It's easy to use the consumer business as an example. In consumer, we added 600,000 net new checking accounts during the year 2023. The fourth quarter of 2003 represents the 20th straight quarter of net addition of checking accounts. The quality is what drives the checking account balances. On average, 67% of the deposit balances have been with us for customers who have been with us for more than 10 years. 92% of the consumer checking accounts are primary, meaning those are core client household accounts. 60% of our checking accounts use our debit card, the average for the transactions account each year, showing how engaged they are. There are traditionally opening savings accounts 20% to 25% of the time within a few months of opening their checking accounts.

在投影片 3 中，我們重點介紹了今年業績中有機活動的一些成功。美國銀行團隊是一個強大的引擎，推動我們所有業務取得成果。我想舉幾個例子來嘗試將重要的事情與我們的財務狀況聯繫起來。以消費業務為例很容易理解。在消費者方面，我們在 2023 年淨新增了 600,000 個支票帳戶。2003 年第四季是支票帳戶連續第 20 個季度淨增。品質是支票帳戶餘額的驅動力。平均而言，與我們合作超過 10 年的客戶有 67% 的存款餘額存在。 92% 的消費者支票帳戶是主要帳戶，這意味著這些帳戶是核心客戶家庭帳戶。我們 60% 的支票帳戶使用借記卡，這是每年交易帳戶的平均值，顯示了他們的參與度。傳統上，有 20% 到 25% 的人在開設支票帳戶後的幾個月內開設儲蓄帳戶。

Thinking about those new accounts at opening those new checking accounts opened last year, bringing about $4,000 of balances, then they deepened over the next subsequent months to 2x that amount. New savings accounts come with those accounts, starting with about $8,000 and doubling over time. From the total new checking accounts we opened just in 2023, those customers have opened nearly 0.5 million credit card accounts with us so far in 2023. Historically, we've seen, on average, these customers more than double those card balances within a year. Those card accounts on average spent about $7,000 per year, of which a portion will carry a balance.

想想那些去年開設的新支票帳戶開設的新帳戶，帶來了大約 4,000 美元的餘額，然後在接下來的幾個月裡，餘額加深到了該金額的 2 倍。這些帳戶附帶新的儲蓄帳戶，起價約為 8,000 美元，隨著時間的推移會翻倍。從我們僅在2023 年開設的新支票帳戶總數來看，2023 年到目前為止，這些客戶已在我們這裡開設了近50 萬個信用卡帳戶。從歷史上看，我們發現這些客戶在一年內平均將卡餘額增加了一倍以上。這些卡帳戶平均每年花費約 7,000 美元，其中一部分將有餘額。

Now there's always additional opportunity to further serve our clients and to continue to meet them where they are. In addition to the industry-leading digital platforms that we have. We have opened [15] new financial centers in 2023 and more than half of those were in our expansion markets. We've expanded our presence during 2023 to 10 more -- 10 markets, including our latest opening in Omaha.

現在，總是有更多機會進一步為我們的客戶提供服務，並繼續在他們所在的地方與他們會面。除了我們擁有的領先業界的數位平台。我們已於 2023 年開設 [15] 個新的金融中心，其中超過一半位於我們的擴張市場。 2023 年，我們將業務拓展至另外 10 個市場，其中包括我們最新在奧馬哈開設的辦公室。

In our Global Wealth Management team, we added more than 40,000 net new relationships across Merrill and Private Bank. Our advisers opened 150,000 new banking accounts for wealth management clients showing the completeness of the relationship approach. The average Merrill count is over $1 million at opening. The average Private Bank account is multiple to that. As you can see on this slide, we now manage $5.4 trillion of client balances across loans, deposit investments of our consumer clients, both consumer and [GUM]. We saw $84 billion of flows into those accounts last year.

在我們的全球財富管理團隊中，我們在美林和私人銀行淨增加了 40,000 多個新關係。我們的顧問為財富管理客戶開設了 150,000 個新銀行帳戶，顯示了關係方法的完整性。美林公司開業時的平均金額超過 100 萬美元。平均私人銀行帳戶是這個數字的數倍。正如您在這張投影片中所看到的，我們現在管理著 5.4 兆美元的客戶餘額，涉及消費者客戶（包括消費者和 GUM）的貸款和存款投資。去年我們看到 840 億美元流入這些帳戶。

As we switch to Global Banking on the lower left-hand side of the slide, we added clients and increased the number of products per relationship. Just like in consumer, we have seen good growth in customers seeking the benefits of our physical and digital capabilities. But most importantly our talent relationship managers who provide financing solutions, treasury services, strategic advice for clients with local and global needs. We added roughly 2,500 new commercial and business banking clients this year. That is more than twice what we had in 2022. We look forward to continue to drive those -- grow with those clients in '24 and add even more.

當我們切換到幻燈片左下角的全球銀行業務時，我們增加了客戶並增加了每個關係的產品數量。就像消費者一樣，我們看到尋求我們的實體和數位能力優勢的客戶數量大幅成長。但最重要的是我們的人才關係經理，他們為有本地和全球需求的客戶提供融資解決方案、財務服務和策略建議。今年我們新增了約 2,500 個商業銀行客戶。這是我們 2022 年的兩倍多。我們期待繼續推動這些發展——在 24 年與這些客戶一起成長，並增加更多。

This capitalizes on a multiyear build of our relationship management team in the Global Banking businesses, especially in product expansion also, especially Global Transaction Services area and mid-market investment banking. As we think about global markets, we continue to see strong performance from our team with 7% year-over-year revenue growth, the strongest we've had in many years. We see digital tools our customers have access to across the board helping us enable this activity at lower cost.

這利用了我們在全球銀行業務領域的關係管理團隊的多年建設，特別是在產品擴展方面，特別是全球交易服務領域和中端市場投資銀行業務。當我們考慮全球市場時，我們繼續看到我們團隊的強勁表現，營收年增 7%，這是我們多年來最強的表現。我們看到客戶可以全面使用數位工具，幫助我們以更低的成本進行這項活動。

Our [Global] Digital Banking slides are once again included for your reference on Pages 21, 24 and 26. In summary, this was a good quarter. We delivered our third quarter of expense declines. We saw NII outperform what we expected when we talked to you on the last earnings call, we continue to manage well through the transition and the rate structure.

我們的[全球]數位銀行幻燈片再次包含在第 21、24 和 26 頁上，供您參考。總而言之，這是一個不錯的季度。我們實現了第三季費用下降。我們看到 NII 的表現超出了我們在上次財報電話會議上與您交談時的預期，我們繼續在過渡和費率結構方面進行良好的管理。

We saw our deposits grow this quarter and we look forward with a strong capital base, strong liquidity and growing loans and deposits to a great 2024. I want to thank my teammates for what they did for us in 2023, and we all know we are off to nice start for '24.

本季我們的存款有所成長，我們期待憑藉強大的資本基礎、強勁的流動性以及不斷增長的貸款和存款，迎接美好的2024 年。我要感謝我的隊友在2023 年為我們所做的一切，我們都知道我們正在24 年有一個好的開始。

With that I will turn it over to Alastair.

這樣我就把它交給阿拉斯泰爾。

Thank you, Brian. And I'm going to start on Slide 4 of the earnings presentation to provide just a little more context on the summary income statement and the highlights.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我將從收益簡報的幻燈片 4 開始，提供有關收益表摘要和亮點的更多背景資訊。

For the fourth quarter, as Brian noted, we reported $3.1 billion in net income or $0.35 cents per diluted share. That GAAP net income number included 2 notable items. First, we recorded $2.1 billion of pretax expense. That's $0.20 after tax earnings per share. For the special assessment by the FDIC to recover losses from the failures of Silicon Valley and Signature Bank.

正如布萊恩指出的，我們第四季的淨利潤為 31 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.35 美分。此 GAAP 淨利潤數據包括 2 個值得注意的項目。首先，我們記錄了 21 億美元的稅前支出。每股稅後收益為 0.20 美元。 FDIC 進行特別評估，以挽回矽谷和 Signature Bank 倒閉損失。

Second, on November 15, 2023, Bloomberg announced that they would discontinue publishing the Bloomberg Short-Term Bank Yield Index rate after November 15, 2024. And many commercial loans in the industry had BSBY as a reference rate prior to SOFR becoming industry standard. As noted in an 8-K we filed earlier this week, we came to a conclusion in early January that BSBY cessation would not get the same account treatment allowed under LIBOR cessation and therefore, cash flow hedges of BSBY indexed products related to BSBY cash flows forecast to occur after November 15, 2024, would need to be moved out of OCI and into earnings in the fourth quarter '23 financials.

其次，2023年11月15日，彭博宣布將在2024年11月15日後停止發布彭博短期銀行收益率指數利率。而在SOFR成為行業標準之前，業內許多商業貸款都以BSBY作為參考利率。正如我們在本週稍早提交的8-K 中指出的，我們在一月初得出的結論是，BSBY 停止不會獲得LIBOR 停止所允許的相同帳戶待遇，因此，BSBY 指數產品的現金流對沖與BSBY 現金流量相關預計發生在 2024 年 11 月 15 日之後，需要從 OCI 移出併計入 23 年第四季的財務報表中。

So as a result of the accounting interpretation, we recorded a negative pretax impact to our market making revenue of approximately $1.6 billion. I just want to reinforce that's an accounting impact. It's not an economic change to the contracts, and we'll see an offset to this over time through higher NII mostly occurring in 2025 and 2026 after BSBY ceases in November of 2024. The accounting lowered CET1 by 8 basis points during the quarter, and we will recapture that in the next 2 or 3 years.

因此，由於會計解釋，我們記錄了對我們的做市收入約 16 億美元的稅前負面影響。我只是想強調這是對會計的影響。這並不是合約的經濟變化，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到這種情況的抵消，因為NII 較高，主要發生在2024 年11 月BSBY 停止後的2025 年和2026 年。會計在本季度將CET1 降低了8 個基點，並且我們將在未來兩三年內重新奪回這一點。

Adjusted for the FDIC assessment and the BSBY cessation-related impact, Q4 net income was $5.9 billion or $0.70 per share.

根據 FDIC 評估和 BSBY 終止相關影響進行調整後，第四季度淨利潤為 59 億美元，即每股 0.70 美元。

On Slide 5, we show the highlights of the quarter, and we reported revenue of $22.1 billion on an FTE basis. And excluding the BSBY cessation impact, adjusted revenue was $23.7 billion and declined 4% driven by net interest income. Fourth quarter revenue is a tough year-over-year comparison as NII peaked in the fourth quarter of '22 at $14.8 billion before slowly moving lower over 2023. Outside of NII, we saw good growth in treasury service fees and wealth management fees. And those were offset by higher tax advantaged investment deal activity, creating higher operating losses and the more tax credits associated with them and recognized across periods. Expense for the quarter of $17.7 billion included the $2.1 billion FDIC charge.

在投影片 5 中，我們展示了本季的亮點，我們報告的 FTE 收入為 221 億美元。排除 BSBY 停止的影響，調整後收入為 237 億美元，在淨利息收入的推動下下降了 4%。第四季的營收年比比較困難，因為NII 在2022 年第四季達到148 億美元的峰值，然後在2023 年緩慢下降。除了NII 之外，我們還看到資金服務費和財富管理費的良好增長。這些都被較高的稅收優惠投資交易活動所抵消，從而造成了更高的經營虧損以及與之相關並跨時期確認的更多稅收抵免。該季度 177 億美元的支出包括 21 億美元的 FDIC 費用。

So excluding that charge, adjusted expense was $15.6 billion and consistent with our prior guidance. That allowed us to invest for growth as well as use good expense discipline to eliminate work and reduce headcount. And on an adjusted basis, this then is the third quarter of sequential expense decline this year.

因此，排除該費用，調整後的費用為 156 億美元，與我們先前的指導一致。這使我們能夠為成長進行投資，並利用良好的費用紀律來減少工作量和減少員工人數。在調整後的基礎上，這是今年第三季費用較上季下降。

Provision expense for the quarter was $1.1 billion. That consisted of $1.2 billion in net charge-offs and modest reserve release reflecting the improved macroeconomic outlook. Net charge-offs reflect the continued trend in consumer and commercial charge-offs towards more normalized levels as well as real estate office losses.

本季撥備費用為 11 億美元。其中包括 12 億美元的淨沖銷和適度的準備金釋放，反映出宏觀經濟前景的改善。淨沖銷反映了消費者和商業沖銷朝向更正常化水準以及房地產辦公室損失的持續趨勢。

Lastly, our income tax expense this quarter was a modest benefit. As credits from tax advantaged investment deals offset the tax expense on the lower earnings in Q4 driven by the notable charges.

最後，本季我們的所得稅支出是一個適度的好處。由於稅收優惠投資交易的抵免抵消了第四季度因顯著費用導致的收益下降而產生的稅收費用。

So let's review the balance sheet on Slide 6, and you'll see we ended the quarter at $3.2 trillion of total assets, up $27 billion from the third quarter. I'd highlight here both the $39 billion growth in deposits and a decline in cash on balance sheet of $19 billion. Overall, you'll note that debt securities increased $92 billion, and that included a $9 billion decline in hold to maturity securities, and $100 billion increase in available-for-sale securities, reflecting short-term investment of liquidity from all of these activities. We continue to put money into very short term T-bills and hedged treasury notes this quarter and those are essentially earning the same rate as cash. And you can see our absolute cash levels remain quite high.

讓我們回顧一下投影片 6 上的資產負債表，您會發現本季末的總資產為 3.2 兆美元，比第三季增加了 270 億美元。我想在此強調存款增加了 390 億美元，而資產負債表上的現金減少了 190 億美元。總體而言，您會注意到債務證券增加了 920 億美元，其中持有到期證券減少了 90 億美元，可供出售證券增加了 1000 億美元，反映了所有這些活動的流動性短期投資。本季我們繼續將資金投入超短期國債和對沖國債，這些債券的殖利率基本上與現金相同。你可以看到我們的絕對現金水準仍然很高。

As Brian noted, liquidity remains strong with $897 billion of global access liquidity sources that was up $38 billion third quarter of '23, and it remained $321 billion above our pre-pandemic level in the fourth quarter of '19.

正如布萊恩所指出的那樣，流動性依然強勁，全球流動性來源達8,970 億美元，比2019 年第三季增加了380 億美元，比19 年第四季大流行前的水平仍高出3,210 億美元。

Shareholders' equity increased $5 billion from the third quarter as earnings and AOCI improvement were only partially offset by capital distributed to shareholders. The AOCI improved $4 billion, reflecting both the previously mentioned BSBY related reclassification into fourth quarter earnings and other AOCI improvements.

股東權益較第三季增加 50 億美元，因為獲利和 AOCI 的改善僅分配給股東的資本部分抵銷。 AOCI 增加了 40 億美元，反映了先前提到的與 BSBY 相關的第四季度收益重新分類和其他 AOCI 的改善。

This included some improvements in other cash flow hedges, which don't impact regulatory capital driven by a decline in long-end rates.

這包括其他現金流對沖的一些改進，這些改進不會影響長期利率下降驅動的監管資本。

During the quarter, we paid out $1.9 billion in common dividends, and we bought back $800 million in shares, which more than offset our employee awards. Tangible book value per share is up 3% linked quarter and 12% year-over-year.

本季度，我們支付了 19 億美元的普通股息，並回購了 8 億美元的股票，這遠遠抵消了我們的員工獎勵。每股有形帳面價值較上季成長 3%，較去年同期成長 12%。

Turning to the regulatory capital. Our CET1 level improved to $195 billion from September 30, while the CET1 ratio declined 9 basis points to 11.8% and remains well above our current 10% requirement as of January 1, '24. We also remain well positioned against the proposed capital rules as our current CET1 level matches our 10% minimum, against anticipated RWA inflation from the proposed rules. Risk-weighted assets increased $19 billion or on loan growth and growth in Global Markets, RWA and our supplemental leverage ratio was 6.1% versus the minimum requirement of 5%, which leaves plenty of capacity for balance sheet growth and our TLAC ratio remains comfortably above requirements.

轉向監管資本。自 9 月 30 日起，我們的 CET1 水準提高至 1,950 億美元，而 CET1 比率下降 9 個基點至 11.8%，並且截至 2024 年 1 月 1 日仍遠高於我們目前的 10% 要求。我們也針對擬議的資本規則保持有利地位，因為我們目前的 CET1 水平符合我們 10% 的最低水平，與擬議規則中預期的 RWA 通貨膨脹相比。風險加權資產增加了190 億美元，得益於貸款成長和全球市場、RWA 的成長，我們的補充槓桿率為6.1%，而最低要求為5%，這為資產負債表成長留下了充足的空間，我們的TLAC 比率仍然輕鬆高於要求。

So let's focus on loans by looking at the average balances on Slide 7. And you can see loan growth improved this quarter as we saw improvement in both credit card and commercial borrowing, offset by declines in commercial real estate and securities-based lending. The commercial growth reflects good demand overall and was muted only at quarter end by companies paying down commercial balances as they finalize their year-end financial positions.

因此，讓我們透過查看投影片7 上的平均餘額來關注貸款。您可以看到本季貸款成長有所改善，因為我們看到信用卡和商業借款都有所改善，但被商業房地產和證券貸款的下降所抵消。商業成長反映了整體良好的需求，並且僅在季度末因公司在確定年終財務狀況時償還商業餘額而受到抑制。

Lastly, on a positive note, we have seen loan spreads continue to widen, given some of the capital pressures from proposed rules on the banking industry and this combined with investment in relationship managers we have added over the past few years has positioned us to take market share and improve spreads.

最後，從積極的方面來看，考慮到銀行業擬議規則帶來的一些資本壓力，我們看到貸款利差繼續擴大，再加上我們過去幾年增加的客戶經理投資，使我們能夠採取市場份額並提高利差。

Moving to deposits, I will stay focused on averages on Slide 8. And the trends of ending balances saw growth in Global Banking and Wealth Management and declines in consumer. Relative to the pre-pandemic fourth quarter '19 period, average deposits are still up 35%. Every line of business remains well above their pre-pandemic levels. Consumer is up 33%, with checking up 40%, driven by the net new checking accounts added that Brian noted earlier.

談到存款，我將繼續關注投影片 8 上的平均值。期末餘額的趨勢是全球銀行和財富管理業務的成長以及消費者的下降。與大流行前的 19 年第四季相比，平均存款仍成長 35%。各業務領域仍遠高於疫情前的水準。 Brian 早些時候指出，受新增淨支票帳戶的推動，消費者成長了 33%，支票帳戶增加了 40%。

On a more recent performance basis, deposits grew $29 billion or 6% from Q3 on an annualized basis. The only business that saw a decline in deposits linked quarter was consumer. And here, we saw a decline of $21 billion. This linked quarter decline slowed from the third quarter change. And in total, we have $959 billion in high-quality consumer deposits which remains $239 billion above pre-pandemic levels. The total rate paid on consumer deposits in the quarter was 47 basis points, and this remains very low, driven by the high mix of quality transactional accounts. Most of this quarter's rate increase remained concentrated in CDs and consumer investment deposits, which together only represent 15% of the consumer deposits.

從最近的業績來看，存款年增 290 億美元，較第三季成長 6%。唯一與季度相關的存款下降的業務是消費業務。在這裡，我們看到了 210 億美元的下降。這一季度的下降幅度較第三季的變化放緩。總的來說，我們擁有 9,590 億美元的優質消費者存款，仍比疫情前的水準高出 2,390 億美元。本季消費者存款支付的總利率為 47 個基點，由於高品質交易帳戶的高組合，這一利率仍然非常低。本季升息的大部分仍集中在存款證和消費者投資存款上，兩者僅佔消費者存款的15%。

Turning to wealth management. Balances on an end-of-period basis improved modestly, and we continue to experience a slowing in the trend of clients moving money from lower-yielding sweep accounts into higher-yielding preferred deposits and off-balance sheet. Our sweep balances were down $4 billion and were replaced by new account generation and deepening. Global Banking deposits grew $23 billion, moving nicely above the $500 billion level that we've experienced over the course of the past 6 quarters. These deposits are generally transactional deposits of our commercial customers. They're the ones they used to manage their cash flows and noninterest-bearing deposits were about 33% of deposits at the end of the quarter.

轉向財富管理。期末餘額略有改善，客戶將資金從收益較低的掃蕩帳戶轉移到收益較高的優先存款和資產負債表外的趨勢繼續放緩。我們的清掃餘額減少了 40 億美元，取而代之的是新帳戶的生成和深化。全球銀行存款成長了 230 億美元，遠高於過去 6 個季度的 5,000 億美元水準。該等存款一般為我們商業客戶的交易存款。他們用來管理現金流，截至本季末，無利息存款約佔存款的 33%。

Now when we turn to excess deposit levels on Slide 9, you can see deposit growth exceeded loan growth this quarter, and that expanded our excess of deposits above loans from Q3 to about $0.9 trillion, which is well above the $0.5 trillion we had pre-pandemic. You can see that in the upper left of Slide 9, which is where we've used and shown you how we think about managing excess liquidity. We continue to have a balanced mix of cash available-for-sale of securities and held-to-maturity securities. In this quarter, the combination of the cash and the AFS securities now represent 51% of the total $1.2 trillion noted on this page.

Now when we turn to excess deposit levels on Slide 9, you can see deposit growth exceeded loan growth this quarter, and that expanded our excess of deposits above loans from Q3 to about $0.9 trillion, which is well above the $0.5 trillion we had pre-大流行.您可以在投影片 9 的左上角看到這一點，這是我們使用並向您展示我們如何考慮管理過剩流動性的地方。我們持續維持可供出售現金證券及持有至到期證券的均衡組合。在本季度，現金和 AFS 證券的總和目前佔本頁所示 1.2 兆美元總額的 51%。

You'll also notice the change in mix of the shorter-term portfolio as we began to lower cash and increase available for sale securities by mostly short-dated T-bills with similar yields. You can note also the hold to maturity book continued to decline from paydowns and maturities pulling to par. In total, the hold-to-maturity book moved below $600 billion this quarter. It's now down $89 billion from its peak, and it consists of about $122 billion in treasuries and about $465 billion in mortgage backed securities along with a few billion others. Also note that the blended cash and securities yields continued to rise and remained about 170 basis points above the rate we pay for deposits.

您還會注意到短期投資組合的變化，因為我們開始減少現金並增加可供出售證券，主要是類似收益率的短期國庫券。您也可以注意到，持有至到期帳簿繼續下降，付款額和到期日拉至平價。本季持有至到期帳面總額降至 6,000 億美元以下。現在它比高峰減少了 890 億美元，其中包括約 1,220 億美元的國債、約 4,650 億美元的抵押貸款支持證券以及數十億美元的其他證券。另請注意，現金和證券混合收益率持續上升，仍比我們支付的存款利率高出約 170 個基點。

The replacement of these lower earning assets into higher-yielding assets continues to provide an ongoing benefit and support to NII. From a valuation perspective, given the reduced balance and the longer term interest rate reductions we've seen in the fourth quarter, we experienced an improvement of more than $30 billion in the valuation of the hold to maturity securities.

將這些低收益資產替換為高收益資產繼續為國家資訊基礎設施提供持續的利益和支持。從估值角度來看，鑑於第四季度餘額減少和長期利率下調，持有至到期證券的估值改善了超過 300 億美元。

So let's turn our focus to NII performance using Slide 10. And a strong finish to the year helped us report $57.5 billion in NII on a fully tax equivalent basis for the full year of 2023, and that's up 9% compared to 2022. On an FTE basis, we reported $14.1 billion in NII, which was modestly better than we told you to expect last quarter driven by modestly battered deposit growth. The $14.1 billion was a decline of $400 million from the third quarter, driven by the unfavorable impacts of deposits and related pricing and lower Global Markets NII partially offset by higher rates benefiting asset yields.

因此，讓我們使用幻燈片10 將重點轉向NII 表現。今年的強勁收官幫助我們報告2023 年全年的NII 為575 億美元（按完全稅收等值計算），與2022 年相比增長了9% 。根據 FTE 計算，我們報告的 NII 為 141 億美元，略好於我們告訴您的預期，上季度是由於存款增長小幅下滑所致。 141 億美元比第三季減少了 4 億美元，這是由於存款和相關定價的不利影響以及全球市場 NII 的下降，但部分被有利於資產收益率的較高利率所抵消。

And as we look forward, given that we've got 1 less day of interest in the first quarter, and that's worth about $125 million to $150 million. And given the rate curve shift, we believe the first quarter will be somewhere between 100 and 200 lower than the fourth quarter. It could move a touch lower in Q2. And then we believe it should begin to grow sequentially in the second half of 2024. So very consistent with our prior guidance.

展望未來，考慮到第一季的利息減少了 1 天，價值約為 1.25 億至 1.5 億美元。考慮到利率曲線的變化，我們認為第一季將比第四季低 100 到 200 之間。第二季可能會小幅走低。然後我們認為它應該在 2024 年下半年開始連續成長。這與我們先前的指導非常一致。

With regard to the forward view, I just provided, let me note a few other caveats. It would include an assumption that interest rates in the forward curve materialize. And the forward curve today has 6 cuts compared to last quarter when we had 3 cuts in [2024] forward curve. So it's bouncing around a little and shifted in the past quarter. The forward view also includes our expectation of low to mid-single-digit loan growth and some moderate growth in deposits as we move into the back half of 2024. Given our recent deposit and loan performance, we continue to feel good about these assumptions.

關於我剛才提供的前瞻性觀點，讓我注意一些其他注意事項。它將包括遠期曲線利率實現的假設。與上季相比，今天的遠期曲線有 6 次削減，當時我們對 [2024] 遠期曲線進行了 3 次削減。因此，在過去的一個季度中，它出現了一些波動並發生了變化。展望未來，我們預計到 2024 年下半年，貸款將出現低至中個位數的增長，存款將出現適度增長。鑑於我們最近的存款和貸款表現，我們對這些假設仍然感到滿意。

Before moving away, it's worth noting our net interest yield declined 14 basis points to 197 basis points, and that's driven by the decline in NII as well as higher average earning assets, reflecting prior period builds of cash and cash-like securities.

在離開之前，值得注意的是，我們的淨利息收益率下降了 14 個基點，至 197 個基點，這是由 NII 下降以及平均收益資產上升推動的，反映了前期現金和現金類證券的增加。

Turning to asset sensitivity and focusing on a forward yield curve basis, the plus 100 basis point parallel shift at December 31 was $3.5 billion of expected NII over the next 12 months coming from our banking book and that assumes no expected change in balance sheet levels or mix relative to our baseline forecast, and 93% of that sensitivity is driven by short rates. The 100 basis point down scenario is $3.1 billion.

轉向資產敏感性並專注於遠期收益率曲線基礎，12 月31 日的+100 個基點平行移動是未來12 個月來自我們銀行帳戶的預期NII 為35 億美元，並且假設資產負債表水平沒有預期變化或相對於我們的基準預測，這種敏感性的 93% 是由短期利率驅動的。下調 100 個基點的情境為 31 億美元。

Let's turn to expense, and we'll use Slide 11 for the discussion. And we reported $15.6 billion in adjusted expense this quarter which excludes the FDIC assessment. This was in line with our projection from last quarter and down $199 million from the third quarter, driven by reductions in headcount earlier in the year and seasonally lower revenue-related expense. These reductions outpaced the continued investments that we're making to drive growth. Our average headcount was down from third quarter to 213,000 people. And that's good work after peaking at 218,000 last January. We lowered our headcount through the year by 5,000 and did so without taking an outsized severance charge as we used attrition to lower our headcount along the way.

讓我們轉向費用，我們將使用幻燈片 11 進行討論。我們報告本季調整後費用為 156 億美元，其中不包括 FDIC 評估。這與我們對上季度的預測一致，比第三季減少了 1.99 億美元，因為今年稍早的員工人數減少以及收入相關費用的季節性下降。這些削減超過了我們為推動成長而持續進行的投資。我們的平均員工人數較第三季下降至 213,000 人。在去年 1 月達到 218,000 人的峰值之後，這是一項不錯的工作。我們全年減少了 5,000 名員工，並且沒有支付巨額遣散費，因為我們一路上透過自然減員來減少員工數量。

One more point to acknowledge the good work of our teams on expense. Q4 '23 adjusted expense of $15.6 billion is only $94 million higher than the fourth quarter of '22. And just remember, we began 2023 with a $125 million lift in quarterly FDIC expense. So through some good operational excellence work and otherwise, we've managed through all of the additional cost of investments in new tech initiatives and Merrill and financial center openings as well as some stronger revenue and higher marketing costs. As we look forward to next quarter, we expect to see the more typical Q1 seasonal elevation in expense of $700 million to $800 million compared to Q4.

也要感謝我們團隊在費用方面所做的出色工作。 23 年第四季調整後費用為 156 億美元，僅比 22 年第四季高出 9,400 萬美元。請記住，2023 年開始，我們的季度 FDIC 支出增加了 1.25 億美元。因此，透過一些良好的卓越營運工作和其他方面的工作，我們已經解決了新技術計劃、美林和金融中心開業的所有額外投資成本，以及一些更強勁的收入和更高的行銷成本。當我們展望下個季度時，我們預計第一季的支出將比第四季更典型地季節性增加 7 億至 8 億美元。

So we believe expense will be around $16.4 billion in the first quarter. That includes elevated payroll tax expense and the expected cost of higher revenue in both sales and trading and Wealth Management as well as Merrill cost increases. And as we move through 2024, we expect the quarterly expense to decline from Q1, reflecting a drop in the elevated payroll tax expense and revenue changes as well as some additional operational excellence initiative work, continued digital transformation and adoption is also going to help us as we go through the year.

因此，我們認為第一季的支出約為 164 億美元。這包括工資稅支出增加、銷售、交易和財富管理收入增加的預期成本以及美林成本增加。隨著 2024 年的到來，我們預計季度支出將較第一季下降，反映出工資稅支出增加和收入變化的下降，以及一些額外的卓越營運計劃工作，持續的數位轉型和採用也將幫助我們當我們度過這一年時。

Now turn to credit, and I'll use Slide 12 for that. Provision expense was $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter and it included an $88 million reserve release due to a modestly improved macroeconomic environment. On a weighted basis, we're reserved for an unemployment rate of nearly 5% by the end of 2024 compared to the most recent 3.7% rate reported. Net charge-offs of $1.2 billion increased $261 million from the third quarter, and the net charge-off ratio was 45 basis points, a 10 basis point increase from the third quarter.

現在請出示字幕，我將使用投影片 12。第四季撥備支出為 11 億美元，其中包括由於宏觀經濟環境略有改善而釋放的 8,800 萬美元準備金。在加權基礎上，我們預計到 2024 年底失業率將接近 5%，而最新報告的失業率為 3.7%。淨核銷12億美元，較第三季增加2.61億美元，淨核銷率為45個基點，較第三季增加10個基點。

On Slide 13, we highlight the credit quality metrics for both our consumer and commercial portfolios. And the overall increase in net charge-offs was driven by 3 things: First, $104 million of the increase was driven by credit card losses, which continued to normalize as higher late-stage delinquencies flowed through to charge-offs.

在投影片 13 中，我們重點介紹了消費者和商業投資組合的信用品質指標。淨沖銷的整體成長是由三件事驅動的：首先，其中 1.04 億美元的成長是由信用卡損失推動的，隨著晚期拖欠率的增加導致沖銷，信用卡損失繼續正常化。

Second, $65 million of the increase was driven by a broad range of smaller commercial and industrial losses, which were mostly previously reserved and monitored for the past couple of quarters. And lastly, $76 million of the increase was driven by commercial real estate losses, primarily due to office also mostly reserved. In the appendix, we've included a current view of our commercial real estate and office portfolio stats provided last quarter. And we've also included the historical perspective of our loan book derisking and long-term trend of our consumer and commercial net charge-offs, and you can see those on Slides 30 to 33.

其次，其中 6,500 萬美元的成長是由一系列較小的商業和工業損失所推動的，這些損失大部分是在過去幾個季度中保留和監測的。最後，其中 7,600 萬美元的成長是由商業房地產損失推動的，主要是因為辦公室也大部分被保留。在附錄中，我們提供了上季度提供的商業房地產和辦公大樓投資組合統計數據的當前視圖。我們還包括了貸款簿去風險的歷史視角以及消費者和商業淨沖銷的長期趨勢，您可以在投影片 30 至 33 中看到這些內容。

Let's move on to the various lines of business and their results, and I'll start on Slide 14 with Consumer Banking. For the quarter, Consumer earned $2.8 billion on continued good organic growth. And despite their good client activity, it's difficult to outrun the earnings impact of higher rates on deposit costs, while the credit is also normalizing. The reported earnings declined 23% year-over-year as top line revenue declined 4%, while expense rose 3% and the credit costs rose. Customer activity showed another strong quarter of net new checking growth, another strong period of card opening and investment balances for consumer clients, which climbed $105 billion over the past year to a record $424 billion. Our full year flows were $49 billion as accounts grew 10% in the past 12 months.

讓我們繼續討論各個業務領域及其結果，我將從幻燈片 14 的消費者銀行業務開始。本季度，消費者業務憑藉持續良好的有機成長實現了 28 億美元的收入。儘管他們的客戶活動良好，但很難擺脫利率上升對存款成本的影響，而信貸也在正常化。報告獲利年減 23%，營收下降 4%，而費用上升 3%，信貸成本上升。客戶活動顯示新支票淨增長又一個強勁的季度，消費者客戶的開卡和投資餘額又一個強勁時期，去年增長了 1050 億美元，達到創紀錄的 4240 億美元。我們的全年流量為 490 億美元，過去 12 個月的帳戶成長了 10%。

Loan growth was led by credit card, and that broke above $100 billion this quarter. Deposit declines slowed in the quarter with continued strong discipline around pricing, and our expense reflects continued business investments for growth. And as you can also see in the appendix, Page 21, digital engagement continued to improve and showed good year-over-year improvement as customers enjoy the continuation of enhanced capabilities.

貸款成長由信用卡帶動，本季突破 1000 億美元。由於定價方面持續嚴格的紀律，本季存款下降速度放緩，我們的費用反映出持續的業務投資以促進成長。正如您在附錄第 21 頁中看到的那樣，隨著客戶享受持續增強的功能，數位化參與度持續改善，並顯示出良好的逐年改善。

Moving to Wealth Management on Slide 15. We produced good results earning a little more than $1 billion after adding 40,000 net new relationships in Merrill and the Private Bank this year. These results were down from last year as the decline in NII from higher deposit costs still catching up from the interest rate hikes, more than offset higher fees from asset management, driven by higher market levels and assets under management flows. As Brian noted earlier, both Merrill and the Private Bank continued to see strong organic growth and produced solid assets under management flows of $52 billion since the fourth quarter of '22, which reflects a good mix of new client money as well as existing clients putting their money to work. Expenses reflect continued investments in the business and revenue-related costs.

轉到幻燈片 15 上的財富管理。今年，在美林和私人銀行淨新增 40,000 個關係網後，我們取得了良好的業績，收入略高於 10 億美元。這些結果較去年有所下降，因為存款成本上升導致的NII下降仍趕上利率上漲的步伐，這足以抵消市場水平和管理資產流量上升推動的資產管理費用上漲。正如布萊恩早些時候指出的，自22 年第四季以來，美林和私人銀行都繼續保持強勁的有機成長，並在管理流量下產生了520 億美元的堅實資產，這反映了新客戶資金以及現有客戶資金的良好組合。他們的錢用來工作。費用反映了對業務的持續投資和與收入相關的成本。

On Slide 16, you see the Global Banking results. The business produced strong results with earnings of $2.5 billion as a decline from peak levels of NII was offset by lower provision expense, leaving earnings down 3% year-over-year. Revenue declined 8%, driven by the NII. Our Global Treasury Services business remained robust with strong business from existing clients as well as good new client generation. In addition, we continue to see a steady volume of solar and wind investment projects this quarter. And our investment banking business continued to perform well in a sluggish environment. Year-over-year revenue growth also benefited from lower marks on leveraged loan positions.

在投影片 16 上，您可以看到全球銀行業的結果。該業務取得了強勁的業績，盈利 25 億美元，NII 峰值水平的下降被撥備費用下降所抵消，盈利同比下降 3%。在國家資訊基礎設施 (NII) 的推動下，收入下降了 8%。我們的全球財資服務業務保持強勁，現有客戶業務強勁，新客戶數量良好。此外，本季太陽能和風能投資項目數量持續穩定。我們的投資銀行業務在低迷的環境下持續表現良好。年比收入成長也得益於槓桿貸款部位的下降。

The company's overall investment banking fees were $1.1 billion in Q4. That grew 7% over the prior year despite a fee pool that was down 8%. And for the year, we held on to the #3 position overall given that performance. In the component parts, we ended the year #1 in investment grade, #2 in leverage finance, #4 in equity capital markets; and #4 in mergers and acquisition. The diversification of the revenue across products and regions reflects the growing strength of our platform, and a good example of that is our focus on the equity capital markets blocks business, where we finished #1 in the United States for the first time since 1998. And in EMEA, we were also #1 for blocks.

第四季該公司的整體投資銀行費用為 11 億美元。儘管費用池下降了 8%，但這一數字仍比前一年增長了 7%。鑑於這一表現，我們今年總體保持了第三名的位置。在組成部分中，我們在投資等級排名第一，在槓桿融資上排名第二，在股權資本市場上排名第四；在併購方面排名第四。跨產品和跨地區的收入多元化反映了我們平台實力的不斷增強，一個很好的例子就是我們對股權資本市場區塊業務的關注，自 1998 年以來我們首次在美國排名第一。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們的區塊也排名第一。

Provision expense reflected a reserve release of $399 million, and that comes from an improved macroeconomic outlook as well as realized charge-offs better as noted before. Expense decreased 2% year-over-year as continued investments in the business were more than offset by reductions in other operating costs.

撥備支出反映了 3.99 億美元的準備金釋放，這來自於宏觀經濟前景的改善以及先前提到的更好的沖銷。由於其他營運成本的減少抵消了對業務的持續投資，費用比去年同期下降了 2%。

Switching to Global Markets on Slide 17. The team had another strong quarter with earnings growing 13% year-over-year to $736 million, driven by revenue growth of 4%, and we refer to results excluding DVA as we normally do. Good results in sales and trading and comparatively lower marks on leveraged loan positions drove the year-over-year performance. And focusing on the sales and trading ex DVA, revenue improved 1% year-over-year to $3.8 billion which is a new fourth quarter record for the firm. I think it was down 6% from a record quarter, while equities increased 12% compared to the fourth quarter of '22. And the FICC revenues were down versus that record fourth quarter level with higher revenues in mortgages and municipal trading. Equities was driven by improved trading performance in derivatives. and our expense was up 3% on continued investment in the business.

切換到幻燈片17 上的全球市場。在收入增長4% 的推動下，該團隊又迎來了一個強勁的季度，收入同比增長13% 至7.36 億美元，我們像往常一樣參考不包括DVA 的結果。銷售和交易的良好業績以及槓桿貸款頭寸的相對較低分數推動了同比業績。專注於 DVA 以外的銷售和交易，營收年增 1% 至 38 億美元，這是該公司第四季度的新紀錄。我認為與創紀錄的季度相比下降了 6%，而股市與 2022 年第四季相比上漲了 12%。 FICC 收入較第四季度創紀錄的水平有所下降，抵押貸款和市政交易收入增加。衍生性商品交易表現改善推動股市上漲。由於對業務的持續投資，我們的費用增加了 3%。

Finally, on Slide 18, All Other shows a loss of $3.8 billion as the 2 notable items highlighted earlier, negatively impacted net income by $2.8 billion in that segment. Revenue adjusted for the $1.6 billion BSBY cessation was flat year-over-year and expense adjusted for the $2.1 billion FDIC assessment was down a couple of hundred million driven by lower litigation and lower unemployment processing costs.

最後，在投影片 18 上，所有其他業務顯示虧損 38 億美元，因為先前強調的 2 個值得注意的項目對該部門的淨利潤產生了 28 億美元的負面影響。根據 16 億美元的 BSBY 終止調整後的收入與去年同期持平，根據 21 億美元的 FDIC 評估調整後的費用因訴訟減少和失業處理成本下降而下降了數億美元。

I noted earlier, we reported a modest tax benefit this quarter. The tax credits from tax advantaged investment deals throughout the year, including their benefits in the fourth quarter, exceeded taxes on reported earnings because we had the 2 notable items that lowered results this quarter. For the full year, our tax rate was a little more than 6%, and excluding the impacts of BSBY cessation and FDIC and the other discrete tax benefits, that rate was 10%. And further, excluding our investment tax credits, our tax rate would have been 25%.

我之前指出，我們本季報告了適度的稅收優惠。全年稅收優惠投資交易的稅收抵免（包括第四季度的收益）超過了報告收益的稅收，因為我們有兩個值得注意的項目降低了本季度的業績。全年，我們的稅率略高於 6%，排除 BSBY 終止和 FDIC 以及其他離散稅收優惠的影響，該稅率為 10%。此外，如果不包括我們的投資稅收抵免，我們的稅率將為 25%。

So thank you. And with that, we'll launch into the Q&A, please.

所以謝謝。接下來，我們將開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Jim Mitchell of Seaport Global.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 Seaport Global 的 Jim Mitchell 提出的第一個問題。

Alastair, maybe on the NII trajectory that you're talking about sort of down a little bit in the first half and then start to stabilize in the second half. And you're building in 6 cuts, but a lot of those cuts are coming starting in sort of 2Q and beyond and given your asset sensitivity, why would we expect NII to stabilize? Is that just sort of expected growth in deposits and loans? Just kind of help us think through your assumptions on the NII for '24.

阿拉斯泰爾，也許你所說的 NII 軌跡在上半場有點下降，然後在下半場開始穩定。您正在實施 6 次削減，但其中許多削減是在第二季度及以後開始的，考慮到您的資產敏感性，為什麼我們預計 NII 會穩定下來？這只是存款和貸款的預期成長嗎？請幫助我們思考您對 24 年國家資訊基礎設施的假設。

Yes. Well, I think, Jim, going back to last quarter, I don't think our views have changed a great deal. So our guidance isn't changing much either in that regard. If anything, Q4 deposits were a little better than we expected. So I think you see -- we sort of thought this quarter might be around $14 billion. It was a little better than that. So that's obviously a good starting point. Now when we look forward off of that slightly higher number, if you think about Q1, I'm thinking about it in terms of a day count that might be $150 million, let's say, so from where we are, that's going to get us to somewhere between 13.9% and 14%. It's going to be in that kind of a range. Q2, we see going down just a little bit more. That's little bit of deposit seasonality in Q1 and a little bit of just catch up on rate paid and some rotation. But at that point, we see growing in the back half of the year.

是的。好吧，我認為，吉姆，回到上個季度，我認為我們的觀點沒有太大變化。因此，我們的指導在這方面也沒有太大變化。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是第四季存款略好於我們的預期。所以我想你明白了——我們認為本季的銷售額可能約為 140 億美元。比那好一點。所以這顯然是一個很好的起點。現在，當我們展望這個略高的數字時，如果你考慮第一季度，我正在考慮可能是 1.5 億美元的天計數，比方說，所以從我們現在的情況來看，這將使我們到13.9%到14% 之間。它會在這樣一個範圍內。第二季度，我們看到下降幅度更大。這只是第一季存款季節性的影響，以及支付利率和一些輪換的影響。但到那時，我們預計下半年會出現成長。

And that's largely, yes, deposits growing, it's loans growing a little bit. It's some restriking of the securities that come off the balance sheet, and it's restriking some of the loans that come off the balance sheet. So it's all of those things. You're right, when we got together last quarter, we thought there might be 3 rate cuts. Now it's up to 6%. So that's obviously -- that's a little harder, but the deposit picture has been a little better. So no particular change at this point.

是的，這很大程度上是存款成長，貸款略有成長。這是對資產負債表上的證券進行了一些重新啟動，並對資產負債表上的一些貸款進行了重新啟動。所以這就是所有這些事情。你是對的，上個季度我們聚在一起時，我們認為可能會降息 3 次。現在已經上升到6%了。顯然，這有點困難，但存款情況要好一些。所以目前沒有特別的改變。

Okay. That's fair. And maybe just as a follow-up, just on loan growth, what do you think -- we all see the card growth, but outside of that, it's been pretty muted. We're looking at rate cuts, maybe that's a little bit better for demand. How do you think -- what are you seeing on the commercial side in terms of demand? And what changes the dynamic?

好的。這還算公平。也許只是作為後續行動，就貸款成長而言，你覺得怎麼樣——我們都看到了信用卡的成長，但除此之外，它的成長相當平靜。我們正在考慮降息，也許這對需求來說會好一些。您認為商業方面的需求如何？是什麼改變了動態？

Well, I mean, you look back, if you look at our loan growth in the materials it's been a pretty slow loan growth environment. And I think what's going on underneath it is, obviously, you've got the economic activity. Offsetting that a little bit is lower revolver utilization. You can start to see why with rates being much higher. It's a little more expensive to borrow revolver. So as corporate cash balances have come up and deposits have come up, that's just a natural headwind. That's beginning to fade. So we kind of feel like the loan growth ought to be low single digits. Normally, we think about it as kind of GDP plus just a little bit of market share. So in a low GDP environment, that's sort of what we're expecting for loans this year. And then we'll just need to see how the rate structure develops.

嗯，我的意思是，你回顧一下，如果你看看我們材料中的貸款成長，那是一個相當緩慢的貸款成長環境。我認為背後發生的事情顯然是經濟活動。左輪手槍利用率較低，抵消了一點點。您可以開始明白為什麼利率要高得多。借左輪手槍要貴一點。因此，隨著企業現金餘額的增加和存款的增加，這只是一個自然的阻力。這種情況開始消退。所以我們覺得貸款成長應該是低個位數。通常，我們將其視為 GDP 加上一點市場份額。因此，在國內生產毛額較低的環境下，這就是我們對今年貸款的預期。然後我們只需要看看利率結構如何發展。

We'll take our next question from Erika Najarian of UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Erika Najarian 提出的下一個問題。

Alastair, if you could -- thank you for giving us more detail about how your NII trajectory is going to be for the rest of the year. I'm wondering if you could just give us a little bit more color on what you're expecting for deposit rate pricing and perhaps for -- specifically perhaps the liability mix in the second half of the year. So if you expect deposit growth to come back, I think a big question that the market has is what is the repricing power to the downside that these banks have as the Fed cuts rate. So I think that would be really good color for the market to have.

阿拉斯泰爾，如果可以的話，感謝您向我們提供有關今年剩餘時間內您的 NII 軌蹟的更多詳細資訊。我想知道您是否可以給我們更多關於您對存款利率定價以及下半年負債組合的期望。因此，如果你預期存款成長將會回歸，我認為市場面臨的一個大問題是，隨著聯準會降息，這些銀行的重新定價能力有多大。所以我認為這對市場來說是非常好的顏色。

Yes. Okay. So first of all, if I go back over the trajectory of deposits through the course of 2023. We troughed at [$1.845 billion] , and we ended at [$1.925 billion]. So underneath this there is $80 billion of growth in deposits since May. So that obviously informs our perspective around how we think about deposit gathering at this stage. That feels to us like it's a supportive environment of our NII forecast. Second, obviously, over the course of this year, there's been a move towards more interest-bearing. And that actually helps us in the event that we start seeing Fed cuts because that's obviously going to allow us to take those rates down.

是的。好的。首先，如果我回顧一下 2023 年存款的軌跡。我們的最低點為 [18.45 億美元]，最終為 [19.25 億美元]。因此，自 5 月以來，存款增加了 800 億美元。因此，這顯然影響了我們對現階段存款收集的看法。我們感覺這對我們的 NII 預測來說是一個支持性的環境。其次，顯然，今年以來，出現了更多生息的趨勢。如果我們開始看到聯準會降息，這實際上對我們有幫助，因為這顯然會讓我們降低利率。

So look, we're going to see a little bit of rotation, I think, here in Q1 and Q2. I think we'll likely see a little bit of deposit pricing lag. But the last Fed hike at this point was July. So there's been an awful lot of time at this point for deposit pricing to shake out. We won't be immune from anything. We have to compete for deposits along with everyone else, but combine all of those things, and that's where we get our confidence.

所以，我認為，我們將在第一季和第二季看到一些輪換。我認為我們可能會看到存款定價出現一些滯後。但聯準會上次升息是在 7 月。因此，目前存款定價已經有相當長的時間來調整了。我們不會免受任何事情的影響。我們必須與其他人一起爭取存款，但將所有這些因素結合起來，這就是我們的信心所在。

Got it. And just to clarify how we should think about the full year the $16.4 billion in 1Q '24 expenses and a quarterly decline from there. Does that pretty much square with what you've said in the past for expenses of up 1% to 2% year-over-year. And would that number include an assumption that investment banking activity returns in force in 2024?

知道了。只是為了澄清我們應該如何看待全年 24 年第一季 164 億美元的支出以及由此產生的季度下降。這與您過去所說的同比增長 1% 至 2% 的情況是否相符？這個數字是否包含投資銀行活動在 2024 年恢復有效的假設？

Yes. So we -- if you think about it, pre-pandemic, we reached the point where we've taken the expenses down the place where we said we'd kind of grow sort of half the rate of inflation, et cetera. So you're right. What we're thinking now is we are up $100 million in the fourth quarter of last year's fourth quarter. And if you think about that as -- and you look at the personnel side of it, it's up a little higher than nonpersonnel, down a little lower. We got the rise in first quarter expenses, then we start going down each quarter again.

是的。所以，如果你想一想，在大流行之前，我們已經達到了這樣的地步：我們已經將開支降低到我們所說的增長幅度是通貨膨脹率一半的水平，等等。所以你是對的。我們現在的想法是，我們在去年第四季的第四季增加了 1 億美元。如果你考慮一下——從人事方面來看，你會發現它比非人事方面上升了一點，下降了一點。我們第一季的支出有所增加，然後每季又開始下降。

So if you think about $100 million to $200 million of sort of inflationary growth over the quarters this year, you get between 64% and 64.5%. And most of the firms out that we look at are sort of in that range, and we feel comfortable with that. But that sort of allows us the room to use our good operational excellence to take out expenses and replace them with things like revenue-related expenses that we've seen, and we see that pattern reemerge now as we've gotten stability and passed the pandemic, and passed the great resignation and all the inflation that occurred in that -- in the '21, '22 time frame. We now stabilized back to that ability to produce sequential declines in quarters during the year, year-over-year growth of inflationary 1% to 2% levels, and that gets you in that low 64s.

因此，如果你考慮今年幾季 1 億到 2 億美元的通膨成長，你會得到 64% 到 64.5% 之間的結果。我們關注的大多數公司都在這個範圍內，我們對此感到滿意。但這讓我們有空間利用我們良好的卓越運營來削減開支，並用我們已經看到的與收入相關的開支來取代它們，隨著我們已經獲得穩定並通過了大流行，並通過了偉大的辭職和其中發生的所有通貨膨脹——在「21」、「22」的時間範圍內。我們現在已經穩定下來，能夠在年內實現連續下降，通貨膨脹水準年增 1% 到 2%，這會讓你處於 64 的低點。

We'll take our next question from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

我們將接受自治研究中心的約翰·麥克唐納 (John McDonald) 提出的下一個問題。

Alastair, Brian. Alastair, I wanted to go back on the NII, and maybe you could help us. It's so hard for us to square the NII outlook with rate sensitivity disclosure that you have in the slide with a 100 basis point parallel shift down is $3.1 billion. Maybe just -- is there some caveats about how in the real world, it doesn't play out like the disclosures. We've already seen rates come down on the long end, almost 100 basis points. So I guess it just -- where is that $3.1 billion headwind in your number because it's very impressive, obviously, to be able to kind of keep it flat despite that using the forward curve?

阿拉斯泰爾、布萊恩.阿拉斯泰爾，我想重新加入 NII，也許你可以幫助我們。我們很難將 NII 前景與利率敏感度揭露相結合，因為幻燈片中平行下移 100 個基點的金額為 31 億美元。也許只是——在現實世界中，是否有一些警告，它不會像披露的那樣發揮作用。我們已經看到長期利率下降了近 100 個基點。所以我想，你的數字中 31 億美元的逆風在哪裡，因為儘管使用遠期曲線，但仍能保持平穩，顯然這是非常令人印象深刻的？

Yes. Well, I mean I think the main thing is, number one, it obviously assumes a parallel shift instantly. So the rate cuts that are in the forward projections, the earliest 1 comes March, for example. So you're not going to see a full year's worth of rate cuts all in the space of the first day or so, it doesn't work out that way. So John, I think the way to start would be just use what we've disclosed, which is that $3.1 billion. You can see what we see in terms of how much of that is the short end. And then I just take that number and use that as the beginning point. And just keep in mind, we still see some deposit growth, some loan growth and some securities and loan repricing that offsets all that.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，我認為最重要的是，第一，它顯然立即假設了平行移動。例如，前瞻性預測中的降息最早是在三月。因此，你不會在第一天左右的時間內看到全年的降息，事實並非如此。所以約翰，我認為開始的方式就是使用我們所揭露的，即 31 億美元。你可以看到我們所看到的，其中有多少是短端。然後我就以這個數字作為起點。請記住，我們仍然看到一些存款成長、一些貸款成長以及一些證券和貸款重新定價，抵消了所有這些成長。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just on top of that, trading NII or the Global Markets NII, is that likely to be a headwind or a tailwind in '24 versus '23? Is that -- do you have any visibility on that?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後也許最重要的是，交易 NII 或全球市場 NII，這可能是 24 年與 23 年的逆風還是順風？那是——你對此有任何了解嗎？

Yes. Well, look, if you look at Global Markets in any given quarter it moves around just based on the customer behavior. But over the long arc, if you look over the course of the past 2 or 3 years, it's liability sensitive. So I'd expect if you see rate cuts that will benefit Global Markets NII, just a little bit. And you can almost like, if you think about just retracing the steps of what they've conceded in NII, you'd sort of expect to get that back over time.

是的。好吧，如果你觀察任何特定季度的全球市場，它的變化只是基於客戶行為。但從長遠來看，如果你回顧過去兩三年的過程，你會發現責任很敏感。因此，我預計，如果降息將使全球市場 NII 受益，只是一點點。你幾乎可以喜歡，如果你考慮回顧他們在 NII 中所承認的步驟，你會期望隨著時間的推移將其收回。

Okay. So maybe that could grow a bit.

好的。所以也許這個數字可能會成長一點。

John, this quarter it was a drop. Third quarter, fourth quarter, a pretty good amount. And so -- and that's partly due to the fourth quarter being lower activity, just lower inventory carry and things like that. That reversed itself and we're off to a good start so far in the first quarter here and the balance sheet moves back up. So there's a little bit of quarter-to-quarter linkage third to fourth quarter typically, yes.

約翰，本季有所下降。第三季、第四季，數量相當可觀。所以——這部分是由於第四季的活動減少，庫存減少等等。這種情況發生了逆轉，到目前為止，我們在第一季有了一個良好的開端，資產負債表也有所回升。因此，第三季到第四季通常會存在一些季度間的聯繫，是的。

We'll take our next question from Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo.

我們將回答富國銀行麥克梅奧的下一個問題。

Just another follow-up on NII. I guess if you take the Fed dot plot, maybe there's just 3 rate cuts. If you take that instead of the 6, what -- how are you thinking about NII change?

這只是 NII 的另一個後續行動。我想如果你看一下聯準會的點陣圖，也許只有 3 次降息。如果你選擇這個而不是 6，你如何看待 NII 的改變？

Well, I think if we got the 3 rather than the 6, Mike, we do modestly better. I think I would put it this way, if we hadn't seen the 3 more since last quarter, we might have a higher guide. But because we've come off of a base with better deposit gathering in Q4. So we're starting in a better place. So those 2 things have started to even themselves out. And obviously, if it pushes out later, that's a good thing for us.

好吧，我認為如果我們得到 3 而不是 6，麥克，我們會做得更好。我想我會這樣說，如果自上個季度以來我們沒有看到更多的 3 個，我們可能會有更高的指導。但因為我們在第四季的存款收集情況已經有了更好的基礎。所以我們從一個更好的地方開始。所以這兩件事已經開始平衡。顯然，如果它稍後推出，這對我們來說是一件好事。

Brian, Alastair, you always talk about the information advantage you have by just being in the flow of so much of the U.S. economy. What do you think? I mean, is this just not relying on -- I know you like relying on your research group, Brian, and what their economic forecast is. But what do you guys think as far as -- are you only to a recession in the second half of this year? Does the Fed need to cut 6x? Are you seeing that? Where are you seeing the most softness, I guess, is the question?

布萊恩、阿拉斯泰爾，你們總是談論透過參與美國經濟的大部分流動而擁有的資訊優勢。你怎麼認為？我的意思是，這是否只是不依賴——我知道你喜歡依賴你的研究小組，布萊恩，以及他們的經濟預測。但你們認為今年下半年才會出現經濟衰退嗎？聯準會需要降息6倍嗎？你看到了嗎？我想問題是你在哪裡看到了最柔軟的地方？

So I think our research team has rate cuts in next year and has a soft landing, as you referenced, Mike. So that's it. As you see the customers today, as I said earlier, the year-to-year spending growth in the fourth quarter versus last year's fourth quarter or in the first quarter so far versus the first part of last year is a 4% to 5% rate and movement of money, and that was across $4 trillion plus out of the consumer accounts and Bank of America into the economy.

所以我認為我們的研究團隊明年會降息並實現軟著陸，正如你所提到的，麥克。就是這樣了。正如您今天看到的客戶，正如我之前所說，第四季度與去年第四季度相比或第一季迄今為止與去年上半年相比的同比支出增長為 4% 至 5%貨幣的利率和流動，從消費者帳戶和美國銀行流入經濟的金額超過4 兆美元。

That 4% to 5% is similar to what it was in '17, '18, '19, when the Fed rose -- took rates up, inflation was under control and the economy was growing at 2%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%. And so the spending level should sustain an economy, albeit our core prediction is it's slowing down from a higher growth rate in the third quarter, 4.5%, 5%, whatever it was down to a percent or something like that in the first couple of quarters next year, but we see the consumer activity indicating that they're still in the game, they're still spending money.

4% 到 5% 與 17、18、19 年的情況類似，當時聯準會升息，通膨得到控制，經濟以 2%、1.5%、2% 的速度增長，2.5%。因此，支出水準應該能夠維持經濟，儘管我們的核心預測是第三季的較高成長率（4.5%、5%，無論是下降到前幾季的 1% 或類似水準）正在放緩。明年幾個季度，但我們看到消費者活動表明他們仍在遊戲中，他們仍在花錢。

Where they spend is a little different, more on services and going out in restaurants and experiences and less on goods at retail. They're employed. If you look at the estimates by any of you and your economists, the unemployment rate projected is really a modest deterioration from here. Most of them in the core base case. Our reserves actually set at almost a 5% unemployment rate by the end of this year to give you a sense. So that's good news. They're using their credit responsibly, much is made of higher credit card balances, but on the size of the economy and the size -- people are forgetting that economy is a lot bigger than it was in '19 because of the inflation and everything. And as a percentage, we don't see any stress there. We see a normalization of that credit.

他們的消費地點略有不同，更多地花在服務、去餐廳和體驗上，而不是花在零售商品上。他們有工作。如果你看一下你們和你們的經濟學家的估計，預期的失業率其實比現在略有惡化。其中大部分都在核心基礎案例中。到今年年底，我們的儲備金實際上將失業率設定為近 5%，讓您有一個感覺。這是個好消息。他們負責任地使用信用，很大程度上是由於信用卡餘額增加，但就經濟規模和規模而言——人們忘記了，由於通貨膨脹和其他一切因素，經濟比 19 年大得多。 。從百分比來看，我們沒有看到任何壓力。我們看到這種信貸的正常化。

So they're working, they're getting paid. They have balances in accounts. They have access to credit. They've locked in good rates on their mortgages and they're employed. It's -- we feel it's good. So we think the soft landing is a core thesis and our internal data supports what our research team sees so they get -- they see it all so through our institute.

所以他們在工作，他們得到報酬。他們的帳戶上有餘額。他們可以獲得信貸。他們鎖定了良好的抵押貸款利率並且找到了工作。我們覺得這很好。因此，我們認為軟著陸是一個核心論點，我們的內部數據支持我們的研究團隊所看到的，因此他們透過我們的研究所看到了這一切。

And then just as far as controlling what you can control in terms of expenses and headcount, tech investments and maybe throw an AI as part of that what sort of extra efficiencies can you achieve through AI tech and other initiatives? You squeezed a lot out over the last decade plus what's left to go?

然後，就控制你可以控制的費用和人員數量、技術投資以及可能將人工智慧作為其中的一部分來說，你可以透過人工智慧技術和其他舉措實現什麼樣的額外效率？過去十年你已經榨乾了很多，還剩下什麼？

There's always more to go. So I think we've got wind up, if you take what we're doing this year and next year, meaning '24, '25 and enrolled in '26, it's a couple of billion dollar plus, which helps us (inaudible) Erika was talking about avoiding. Growth and expenses keeping below inflation because you think of us as rolling that expense taken out back into good things. This year will be, I think, $3.8 billion on technology initiatives. That's up from '21 to '22 by $500 million or more and then sort of flattish '22 to '23, they're being applied in different ways.

總是有更多的事情要做。所以我認為我們已經結束了，如果你考慮我們今年和明年所做的事情，即“24”、“25”並註冊“26”，這將是數十億美元以上，這對我們有幫助（聽不清楚）艾莉卡正在談論迴避。成長和支出保持在通貨膨脹以下，因為你認為我們將把支出轉回美好的事物。我認為今年的技術計劃投入將達到 38 億美元。從「21」到「22」增加了 5 億美元或更多，然後在「22」到「23」之間有點持平，它們以不同的方式應用。

We added relationship managers across the board. We keep opening the branches. We're largely through the rehab of the branches that we're keeping. And these are all spending to grow, and that's what you're seeing. So net new checking accounts 600,000 for the year. That's 20 straight quarters, net checking account growth, all good core accounts, flows into the asset management business, $80 billion or more in our Merrill Edge program. The advertising has driven the business. We have 10% more customers and those customers -- with 300,000 or 400,000 customers added in the last 12 months. Those customers bring an average opening balance of $80,000 to $100,000. To give you a sense, they're not small accounts.

我們全面增加了客戶關係經理。我們不斷開設分行。我們主要完成了對我們保留的分支機構的修復。這些都是為了成長而支出，這就是你所看到的。因此，今年淨新增支票帳戶為 600,000。這是連續 20 個季度的淨支票帳戶成長，所有良好的核心帳戶都流入資產管理業務，在我們的 Merrill Edge 計劃中達到 800 億美元或更多。廣告帶動了生意。我們的客戶數量增加了 10%，而這些客戶在過去 12 個月內增加了 30 萬或 40 萬客戶。這些客戶的平均期初餘額為 80,000 美元至 100,000 美元。讓你感覺一下，它們並不是小帳戶。

That's good. So we're just investing, but there's 1,000 levers, None of them are simple. But even this year, when we said we got to get the headcount growth back in line after the great resignation in '22 when we had to hire fast we went from 218,000 people in January down to 212,900 at the end of the year. And In that, we're rolling over teammates from 1 business to another business where we need help. And retraining people and reskilling people. And as AI comes in and to the extent that we can deploy it, deploy it wisely, it will allow us to redeploy people. And even with our very low turnover rate, which is 7% year '23 and actually down from 12% in the year '22 and I think 6% in the fourth quarter, we still can manage headcount down just by not hiring people because that gives us an opportunity to hire 15,000 people this year. So we hire -- we can always hire a little less if we see the efficiencies coming through and redeploy the people we have.

那挺好的。所以我們只是投資，但有 1000 個槓桿，沒有一個是簡單的。但即使是今年，當我們說我們必須在 22 年的大辭職之後使員工人數恢復正常時，我們必須快速招聘，我們的員工人數也從 1 月份的 218,000 人減少到年底的 212,900 人。在這個過程中，我們將團隊成員從一個企業轉移到另一個需要幫助的企業。並對人員進行再培訓和再培訓。隨著人工智慧的出現，只要我們能夠部署它，明智地部署它，它將使我們能夠重新部署人員。即使我們的流動率非常低，23 年為 7%，實際上低於 22 年的 12%，我認為第四季度為 6%，我們仍然可以透過不招募員工來減少員工人數，因為今年我們有機會僱用15,000 名員工。所以我們招募——如果我們看到效率的提高並重新部署我們現有的人員，我們總是可以減少招募一點。

Our next question is from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Just thoughts on capital allocation from here. Brian, I think there was some -- and sorry if I missed it at the beginning, but I think there was some media coverage about you guys -- you talking about leading into markets with capital. I don't know if there's any way to kind of size that? And then just broadly speaking, like how you allocate capital from here or buyback levels and all that stuff.

這裡只是對資本配置的思考。布萊恩，我認為有一些——很抱歉，如果我一開始就錯過了，但我認為有一些關於你們的媒體報道——你們談論用資本進入市場。不知道有什麼辦法可以調整這個尺寸嗎？然後從廣義上講，例如你如何從這裡分配資本或回購水準等等。

Yes. I'm not sure of the media report. But at the end of the day, James DeMare and team have done a great job of deploying capital and growing market share in the sales and trading business, so they're up year-over-year in revenue, FICC was up 11% for the year. Equity was down a little bit -- down 1% or so. And that's -- they've done a great job, $17.6 billion of revenue highest by a lot over the last few years. And think about it in the '19 time frame, we were $13 billion in revenues. They fundamentally moved up. That was deploying more balance sheet. You have got a little bit more capital inherently, but not a lot. They're not taking a lot of risk.

是的。我不確定媒體的報道。但歸根結底，James DeMare 和團隊在銷售和交易業務中的資本部署和市場份額增長方面做得非常出色，因此他們的收入同比增長，FICC 增長了 11%那一年。股票略有下降——下降了 1% 左右。那就是——他們做得很好，收入達到 176 億美元，是過去幾年中最高的。想想 19 年的時間範圍內，我們的收入為 130 億美元。他們從根本上上升了。那就是部署更多的資產負債表。你本質上擁有更多的資本，但不是很多。他們不會冒太大的風險。

They made money every trading day in '23 again, I think. And so they do a great job of serving the clients. So I don't think there's a big capital -- a massive amount of capital. They get the capital they need. They have the balance sheet and they have the risk appetite they need, but we're continuing to put money towards that business because they've proven to be successful. We gave them the balance sheet a few years ago and they were able to deploy. More broadly, we pay out the dividend. We then have a bunch of capital.

我認為他們在 23 年的每個交易日又賺錢了。因此，他們在為客戶提供服務方面做得很好。所以我不認為有大量的資本——大量的資本。他們得到了他們需要的資本。他們擁有資產負債表，也有所需的風險偏好，但我們將繼續向該業務投入資金，因為事實證明他們是成功的。幾年前我們給了他們資產負債表，他們能夠進行部署。更廣泛地說，我們支付股息。這樣我們就有了一大筆資本。

Today we meet the standards as best as Alastair said, we could divine from the rule, and we'll see what the final rule looks like when it comes out. But right now, the $194 billion of CET1 is the level of notional CET1. We have to meet the RWA inflation. I'm not saying it's a good rule. I'm just saying we make the math work. And so from now on, we can basically deploy capital to the dividend payment, a couple of billion dollars a quarter. And then everything above that will go to support business growth if we have it, build a little bit of cushion. We need to build over some period of time to meet these new rules if they come through. And then share buybacks, which we bought $800 million or so last quarter, and we expect that to keep ticking up.

今天我們已經達到了阿拉斯泰爾所說的最佳標準，我們可以從規則中推測出來，我們會看到最終的規則出來時會是什麼樣子。但目前，1,940億美元的CET1只是名目CET1的水準。我們必須應對 RWA 通貨膨脹。我並不是說這是一個好的規則。我只是說我們讓數學發揮作用。因此，從現在開始，我們基本上可以將資金用於支付股息，每個季度數十億美元。如果我們有的話，上面的一切都將支持業務成長，建立一點緩衝。如果這些新規則通過的話，我們需要花一段時間來滿足它們。然後是股票回購，我們在上個季度購買了大約 8 億美元，我們預計這一數字將繼續上升。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you did mention that trading or markets is off to a good start so far this year. Obviously, just a handful of days, but any color around that? And then kind of more broadly speaking, as we think about the overall wallet like obviously, banking is depressed, but how would you frame the market trading wallet? Do we use '23 as a jumping off point and grow it by some kind of long-term trend? Or any way to kind of frame that in terms of the base case.

好的。這很有幫助。然後你確實提到，今年到目前為止，交易或市場有一個好的開始。顯然，只有幾天的時間，但周圍有什麼顏色嗎？然後更廣泛地說，當我們考慮整體錢包時，顯然，銀行業很蕭條，但你會如何建立市場交易錢包？我們是否以 23 年為起點，並透過某種長期趨勢來發展它？或以任何方式根據基本情況建立框架。

Yes. It's too early for us to predict what the quarter will look like. We'll get a much better feel for that 4, 5, 6 weeks from now. But I think you can use the '23 numbers as a baseline starting point. And then in the first quarter, I just apply sort of a typical kind of seasonality. Q1 tends to be a very good quarter for us, Q4, less so just with the client activity. And then just recognize that we're starting from a Q4 record. So that's the only thing I would consider.

是的。我們現在預測本季的情況還為時過早。從現在開始的 4、5、6 週後我們會有更好的感覺。但我認為你可以使用 23 年的數字作為基準起點。然後在第一季度，我只是應用了一個典型的季節性。第一季對我們來說往往是一個非常好的季度，第四季度，僅就客戶活動而言就不那麼好了。然後認識到我們正從第四季的記錄開始。所以這是我唯一會考慮的事情。

And then actually, you mentioned -- investment banking, Matthew and the team exceeded what we thought in the quarter and seemed to perform better than the industry and actually were up a little bit year-over-year. But there's a full pipeline and the question is sort of when is the clarity. And we're seeing some stuff get done and with stability in rates you'd expect that to kick back up. We typically are running about $1.5 billion before the added activity because of rate falling in pandemic a quarter. We're now $1 billion $1.2 billion, you expect it to move back in those levels, and we have actually been gaining share over the last few quarters as the market has gone down around as we held our relative position and grew it. So I think Matthew and the team is in good shape. And this middle market execution has added a lot of throughput to the team and is building up over time.

實際上，您提到的投資銀行業務、馬修和團隊超出了我們在本季度的預期，似乎表現優於行業，實際上同比有所上升。但有一條完整的管道，問題是何時會變得清晰。我們看到一些事情已經完成，隨著利率的穩定，你會預期利率會回升。由於疫情每季的利率下降，我們在增加活動之前通常運行約 15 億美元。我們現在是 10 億美元，12 億美元，你預計它會回到這些水平，而且我們實際上在過去幾個季度中一直在增加份額，因為市場隨著我們保持相對地位並不斷增長而下降。所以我認為馬修和他的團隊狀態很好。這種中間市場的執行為團隊增加了大量的吞吐量，並且隨著時間的推移而不斷增加。

We'll take our next question from Glenn Schorr of Evercore.

我們將回答 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr 的下一個問題。

First question is on the deposits. And I like the path that we've seen in terms of all the stimulus comes all these [clauses] come in, you get some spending, you get some migration some rich people buying treasury is great. To see the stability in the fourth quarter and hear your comments about 2024 for deposits is a little encouraging we'd always want more, but it's a little encouraging. But my question is, to be 35% higher in 4Q '19 is what I would call a lot more growth than a normal period of time would be with the up and down. So is that a good thing? Or is that a risk? And maybe the answer lies within how much of those excess deposits are sitting in all these new accounts that you've opened versus just cash from sitting around in existing clients that's maybe waiting to (inaudible) I hope that question is clear.

第一個問題是關於存款。我喜歡我們所看到的所有刺激措施的路徑，所有這些[條款]都進來了，你得到了一些支出，你得到了一些移民，一些富人購買國債很棒。看到第四季度的穩定性並聽到您對 2024 年存款的評論有點令人鼓舞，我們總是想要更多，但這有點令人鼓舞。但我的問題是，2019 年第 4 季成長 35%，我稱之為比正常時期的上漲和下跌成長更多的成長。那麼這是一件好事嗎？或者說有風險嗎？也許答案在於，這些超額存款中有多少存在於您開設的所有這些新帳戶中，而不是來自可能等待（聽不清楚）的現有客戶的現金，我希望這個問題很清楚。

So Glenn, you're making me have deja vu because basically, I think you would have asked this question in the first quarter of '23 too on a theory that this was all going to run off. And so when we looked at it, we always said, we had grown sort of in a period of time of pandemic at sort of 4%, 5% a year in terms of deposit growth. If you strung that line out, that we're still above that line, let's just say that. And now we're turning and growing. So as Alastair said, we troughed in the middle of the year. So we've outgrown what our sort of implied growth rate would have been against size, et cetera.

所以格倫，你讓我有似曾相識的感覺，因為基本上，我認為你也會在 23 年第一季問這個問題，因為理論上這一切都會消失。因此，當我們審視這個問題時，我們總是說，就存款成長而言，我們在疫情期間以每年 4%、5% 的速度成長。如果你把這條線拉出來，我們還是會高於這條線，我們就這麼說吧。現在我們正在轉變並成長。正如阿拉斯泰爾所說，我們在年中陷入了低谷。因此，我們的成長已經超出了我們的隱含成長率與規模等的關係。

So we feel good about that. It's all core. Now if you look at the underlying dynamics, you think about the different clients we have, if you start with the wealth management clients, discretely in GWIM, those balances came down and are bouncing around $300, $290 million, $300 billion on a given day. And they've been relatively stable now for, I don't know, 5, 6 months, I think.

所以我們對此感覺良好。這都是核心​​。現在，如果你看看潛在的動態，你會想到我們擁有的不同客戶，如果你從財富管理客戶開始，在GWIM 中，這些餘額會下降，並在某一天反彈約300 美元、2.9 億美元、3000億美元。我想他們現在已經相對穩定了，我不知道，有 5、6 個月了。

If you look at the wholesale banking, what's happened is they came -- they have shot up, came down after the pandemic, and then they've been growing back. And they're actually stronger because just the activity has picked up in a stabilization of line usage has -- shows that the environment around their borrowing and cash is more consistent. So that's been good.

如果你看看批發銀行業，你會發現它們的情況是──它們猛增，在疫情後下降，然後又恢復成長。他們實際上更強大，因為隨著線路使用的穩定，活動有所回升，這表明他們的借貸和現金環境更加一致。所以這很好。

And if you look at consumer, that's what we were saying earlier. If you think about consumer, where you see, if you take the people accounts with us, the balances in all their deposit accounts pre-pandemic to now. If you look at people had in consumer, not in wealth management, $50,000, $100,000, $250,000, $1 million in collective balances pre-pandemic they are down 20%. They move the money they're going to move. And so for wealth management and consumer, largely, if people are going to move money out to get rate, have done that. And is there -- is it still bouncing around a little bit in consumer, the other $950 billion more or less on a given day. But it stabilized and it has been relatively consistent for the last 4, 6, 8 weeks. But that's got to settle in and then you grow out from there. But that -- what that's really telling you is they kind of move the money they're going to move, mostly because they did it, and you don't get that money twice.

如果你看看消費者，這就是我們之前所說的。如果你想想消費者，你會看到，如果你把人們的帳戶放在我們這裡，他們所有存款帳戶的餘額都是從疫情爆發前到現在的。如果你看看人們在消費領域而非財富管理領域的集體餘額，在大流行前，他們的集體餘額為 50,000 美元、100,000 美元、250,000 美元、100 萬美元，下降了 20%。他們轉移了他們要轉移的資金。因此，對於財富管理和消費者來說，如果人們打算將資金轉移出去以獲取利率，那麼很大程度上已經這樣做了。是否仍然存在——在某一天多或少的另外 9500 億美元的消費者中是否仍然存在一點點波動？但它穩定下來，並且在過去的 4、6、8 週內相對穩定。但這必須安定下來，然後你才能從中成長。但這真正告訴你的是，他們轉移了他們將要轉移的資金，主要是因為他們這樣做了，而且你不會兩次得到這筆錢。

So you move the chunk in these higher-end consumer balances, they moved 20% of their balances over in to get in money market funds, which we captured and other things. And they don't have it to move again because that was accumulated balances that they had in a 0 interest rate environment, pre-pandemic plus whatever other things they got.

因此，你將這些高端消費者餘額中的大部分轉移，他們將 20% 的餘額轉移到貨幣市場基金中，我們捕獲了這些資金和其他東西。他們沒有辦法再次移動，因為這是他們在零利率環境下、疫情大流行前的累積餘額加上他們得到的任何其他東西。

So if you look at the Slide 8, you can see the deposit slides laid out by noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing. But the key is the consumer was $700 billion going into the pandemic sits at $950 billion today. And if you look at the checking, it's still up $140 billion, and that's kind of bouncing around. You can see it's moved down a little bit, but that's really the high -- the people with high-end checking balances that have moved it into the market.

因此，如果您查看幻燈片 8，您可以看到按無息和有息排列的存款幻燈片。但關鍵是，疫情期間的消費者支出為 7,000 億美元，而如今這一數字為 9,500 億美元。如果你看一下支票，你會發現它仍然增加了 1400 億美元，而且這個數字有點波動。你可以看到它下降了一點，但這確實是最高的——那些擁有高端支票餘額的人將其轉移到市場上。

That's all good and more than I was looking for. I appreciate it. The quick follow-up on reserves now. As you mentioned...

這一切都很好，而且超出了我的預期。我很感激。現在對儲備金進行快速跟進。正如你所提到的...

Just went back -- look at the consumer banking page, it's 47 basis points all in. And it was 6 -- 4 or 6 quarters ago. And so -- and that's all driven by the CDs, (inaudible) lot of CDs and some of the high-end money market pricing. But the point is if it was going to be moved, it's -- think about that. So the money is moved and we pay higher rates for very high balances and stuff like that. So especially like the Merrill Edge platform. So a lot of that dynamic is through the system right now for lack of better term.

剛剛回去——看看消費者銀行頁面，總共是 47 個基點。那是 6、4 或 6 個季度前的事了。所以——這一切都是由 CD 驅動的，（聽不清楚）大量 CD 和一些高端貨幣市場定價。但重點是，如果它要被移動，那就－－想想。因此，資金被轉移，我們為非常高的餘額和類似的東西支付更高的利率。所以特別喜歡Merrill Edge平台。因此，由於缺乏更好的術語，目前許多動態都是透過系統進行的。

That's great. Good comment. I appreciate that. Quickly on reserves, with a pretty solid economy, resilient U.S. consumer, your NPLs are down. You have a lot of reserves. The question is, what are the signposts that you or we should be looking for to know when you've added enough when we are stable enough at a point in time and you actually start funding charge-offs from reserves and not adding.

那太棒了。好評論。我很感激。快速儲備、經濟相當穩健、美國消費者有彈性，不良貸款就會下降。你有很多儲備。問題是，當我們在某個時間點足夠穩定並且您實際上開始從儲備金中沖銷而不是增加資金時，您或我們應該尋找哪些路標來了解您何時添加了足夠的資金。

I think we're getting pretty close now because things are beginning to stabilize. They're beginning to normalize the whole. This appeared in transition for the economy, and it appeared in transition for our clients, too. A lot of them are dealing with higher interest rates and they're just beginning to moderate and change their spending behaviors. So -- we've seen a trend over the course of the past few quarters. It's pretty predictable around the consumer side. You can see that in our disclosures.

我認為我們現在已經非常接近了，因為事情開始穩定下來。他們開始使整體正常化。這似乎是經濟的轉型，也是我們客戶的轉型。他們中的許多人正在應對更高的利率，並且剛開始調整和改變他們的支出行為。因此，我們在過去幾個季度中看到了一種趨勢。在消費者方面，這是相當可預測的。您可以在我們的披露中看到這一點。

So I think it's Slide 12 and 13. But that's going to bounce around, over the course of the next couple of quarters. Now that we're back towards 2018, 2019 levels. It's going to settle in, we think, in the first half of this year. And then on the commercial side, the asset quality remains really in a very good position. We happen to have a couple of names that popped up this quarter. But to your point, we were pretty fully reserved against them. That wasn't a surprise to us. We are seeing those for the course of the past 6 months. So we think we're getting close there, Glenn. And obviously, the closer we get to a soft landing, the better we're going to feel about that.

所以我認為是幻燈片 12 和 13。但在接下來的幾個季度中，這種情況將會反彈。現在我們又回到了 2018 年、2019 年的水準。我們認為，這種情況將在今年上半年穩定下來。然後在商業方面，資產品質確實保持在非常好的位置。本季我們碰巧出現了幾個名字。但就你而言，我們對他們持保留態度。這對我們來說並不意外。我們在過去 6 個月裡看到了這些。所以我們認為我們已經接近目標了，格倫。顯然，我們越接近軟著陸，我們對此的感覺就越好。

But as you think about it, when you said reserves, remember, because on the CECL stuff, we've always got sort of the lifetime reserve methodology, which we're all still getting clear now. We've operated on it for a few years. But this quarter, we actually had commercial reserves come down to pay for the charge-offs on a specifically prior period reserve properties or loans and that happened. And so you saw some of that. Be careful on the consumer side because basically, the pay as you go side, the consumer side is still building up to nominal amount of charge-offs consistent where it was in '18, '19.

但當你想到這一點時，當你說到準備金時，請記住，因為在 CECL 方面，我們總是有某種終身準備金方法，我們現在仍然很清楚。我們已經對其進行了幾年的操作。但本季度，我們實際上減少了​​商業儲備，以支付特定前期儲備財產或貸款的沖銷，這種情況發生了。所以你看到了其中的一些。在消費者方面要小心，因為基本上，在現收現付方面，消費者方面仍在累積與 18、19 年一致的名義沖銷金額。

So if you look at card in '18, '19, the charge-off rate across the 8 quarters range from a low of $290 billion to high of $326 billion. We're at $307 billion today. But we're $6 billion to $8 billion higher balances. So you got to be careful, the nominal amount to get that right. If you go look at it more broadly, all the company, where we had 45 basis points this quarter and the range in those 8 quarters were 34% to 43%. But what's different is the CRE piece of that and the charge-offs.

因此，如果你看看 18 年和 19 年的信用卡，這 8 個季度的沖銷率從最低的 2,900 億美元到最高的 3,260 億美元不等。今天我們的市值為 3070 億美元。但我們的餘額增加了 60 億至 80 億美元。所以你必須小心，名目金額才能正確。如果你從更廣泛的角度來看，所有公司本季都有 45 個基點，這 8 個季度的範圍為 34% 至 43%。但不同的是商業地產部分和沖銷。

So the reserve to loans and all the classic factors to look at are very strong. The reserve has set itself with basically half the reserve is driven by the adverse case scenario to give you a sense versus the base case and then some judgment on top of that. And so as it becomes clear that we're in a soft landing to Alastair's point, there's less allocation to those scenarios we always will make some. But when you put all that together and weight it, it has unemployment pushing up in the high 4s. And you look at unemployment today, it's nowhere close to that and there's no prediction to get there in a base case. So that's what we'll start to ease up on the general reserving. But remember, on card, it's a bit of pay as you go. And we were running around 6% reserves. We're up to 7% against card now. So there might be a little bit coming back, but not that. I'd rather have the growth to stop that up down to 6% in cards than give them back to reserves.

因此，貸款準備金和所有需要關注的經典因素都非常強勁。該準備金基本上有一半是由不利情況驅動的，讓您對基本情況有所了解，然後在此基礎上進行一些判斷。因此，當我們清楚地看到我們正處於阿拉斯泰爾的觀點的軟著陸時，我們總是會為那些場景分配更少的資源。但當你把所有這些放在一起並加權時，失業率就會上升到 4 左右。你看看今天的失業率，它與這個數字相差甚遠，而且也沒有預測在基本情況下會達到這個水準。這就是我們將開始放寬一般預留的情況。但請記住，在卡片上，這是隨用隨付的一點。我們的儲備金約為 6%。現在我們對信用卡的賠率高達 7%。所以可能會有一點回歸，但不是那樣。我寧願讓卡片的成長停止到 6%，也不願將它們回饋給儲備金。

We'll take our next question from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

我們將回答 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin 的下一個問題。

Just a technical clarification on that BSBY $1.6 billion. So I presume that you start to get that back mid-quarter 4Q next year given the November 15, 2024 termination. And then does it just run out ratably. Just wondering how -- over what exact period of time you get that $1.6 billion?

只是對 BSBY 16 億美元的技術澄清。因此，鑑於 2024 年 11 月 15 日終止，我認為您將在明年第四季中期開始收回該金額。然後它會大量耗盡嗎？只是想知道您是如何——在具體的時間內獲得那 16 億美元的？

Ken, Happy New Year. It's this year, is '24 so.

肯，新年快樂。今年是24年。

Correct. Sorry.

正確的。對不起。

So Ken, yes, you got it right. We'll get some of it back at the back end of 2024. So we'll get a little bit in the fourth quarter. And then I'd say we get most of it back in '25, most of the remainder back in '26, that's the easiest way to think about it.

所以肯，是的，你說對了。我們將在 2024 年底收回部分資金。所以我們將在第四季收回一點。然後我想說我們在 25 年得到了大部分，剩下的大部分在 26 年得到了，這是最簡單的思考方式。

So what you had, all right -- it's a little -- so was it straight line? Or is it a little bit front load -- I just want to get -- is it just a straight line divided by or it has a little bit of like a tail?

那麼你所擁有的，好吧——有點——那麼它是直線嗎？或者它是有點前負載 - 我只是想得到 - 它只是一條除以的直線還是有一點像尾巴？

No, it's got a little more in 2025 than 2026.

不，2025 年比 2026 年多一點。

Okay. Okay. I got it. And then just one question. Can you just remind us of brokerage fees this quarter felt the impact, I think, you said it, of the soft averages from this quarter. And so I think should we expect to see just from the markets balance that we saw in the fourth quarter, that to play well into the first quarter starting points from the management fees perspective.

好的。好的。我得到了它。然後只有一個問題。您能否提醒我們，本季的經紀費用感受到了，您說的，本季的軟平均值的影響。因此，我認為我們是否應該僅僅從第四季度看到的市場平衡中看到，從管理費的角度來看，這一點在第一季的起點上表現良好。

Yes, I think you should expect our global markets performance to continue right now. I mean, obviously, there's a pretty constructive environment for the markets business at this point. I don't think anything has changed there. There's a lot of client repositioning going on. So yes, I think the fourth quarter is sort of the right number to start with. And then you just got to, I think, adjust for the fact that, obviously, you've got a step-up in their activity in Q1. If you're -- I don't know if I misinterpreted, if you're talking about the wealth management then those fees are obviously just going to work on the monthly lag based on where the markets go over time. So obviously, the markets are elevated right now, and that should portend well for the future.

是的，我認為您應該期待我們的全球市場表現目前會持續下去。我的意思是，顯然，目前市場業務有一個相當有建設性的環境。我認為那裡沒有任何改變。許多客戶正在重新定位。所以，是的，我認為第四季的數據是合適的。然後，我認為，你必須適應這樣一個事實：顯然，你在第一季的活動有所加強。如果你——我不知道我是否誤解了，如果你談論的是財富管理，那麼這些費用顯然只是根據市場隨時間的變化而產生的月度滯後。顯然，目前市場正在上漲，這對未來來說應該是個好兆頭。

That's what I was getting at. Just confirming that we didn't see the benefit yet, that comes further based on the averages and how that will play forward presuming the market hangs in there.

這就是我的意思。只是確認我們還沒有看到好處，這將根據平均水平以及假設市場保持不變的情況下將如何發揮作用而進一步實現。

Correct. That tends to be a lag by a month or so. So you'll see that in Q1.

正確的。這往往會滯後一個月左右。所以你會在第一季看到這一點。

We'll take our next question from Ryan Kenny of Morgan Stanley.

我們將接受摩根士丹利的瑞安肯尼 (Ryan Kenny) 提出的下一個問題。

Just following up on a few questions ago on the commercial credit side, so the commercial net charge-offs did roughly double sequentially. And you mentioned that there were a few customers that popped up. Should we interpret that to mean that the pace of deterioration decelerates and it was just a one-off? Or is there anything else going on under the hood there?

剛剛跟進了商業信貸方面的幾個問題，因此商業淨沖銷額連續大約翻了一番。你提到有一些顧客突然出現。我們是否應該將其解釋為惡化的速度正在減慢並且這只是一次性的？還是幕後還有其他事情發生？

Yes. So I don't think -- let me put it this way. I think it's too early to conclude that it's ending other than just a momentary spike up. But if you look at that chart, essentially what's going on is 2 things. First, we've got a little bit of office, and that's going to bounce around over the course of time. It just takes a while to resolve that portfolio. It's pretty small for us, obviously. We feel like we're doing all the right things with it, but that was a little elevated this quarter relative to the prior 3. And then more broadly, in commercial, there were a couple of other things that took place this quarter. Again, we were pretty fully served against them.

是的。所以我不認為——讓我這樣說吧。我認為現在斷定它的結束還為時過早，而不僅僅是短暫的上漲。但如果你看一下該圖表，你會發現本質上發生了兩件事。首先，我們有一點辦公室，隨著時間的推移，它會不斷反彈。解決該投資組合只需要一段時間。顯然，這對我們來說很小。我們覺得我們正在用它做所有正確的事情，但本季相對於前三個季度有所提高。更廣泛地說，在商業方面，本季還發生了一些其他事情。再一次，我們在對抗他們時表現得非常出色。

So we sort of saw those coming. Asset quality generally in commercial remains in a very, very good place outside of the office sector. And you can again see that in terms of -- look at our [reserve build criticized] that declined this quarter. So I don't think there's any change there. The issue is just that we're starting with such small numbers in commercial, that anything appears like a spike.

所以我們看到了那些人的到來。商業領域的資產品質在辦公領域之外仍然處於非常非常好的水平。您可以再次看到，看看我們本季下降的[受到批評的儲備建設]。所以我認為那裡沒有任何變化。問題在於，我們在廣告中從如此小的數字開始，任何事情看起來都像是一個尖峰。

And just one more clarifying question on NII. So in this scenario with the 6 rate cuts, can you just help us understand how you expect the deposit mix to migrate? And specifically with the migration from NIB to IB deposits would grind to a halt? Or is there any scenario where NIB deposits actually start growing again?

還有一個關於 NII 的澄清問題。那麼在這種 6 次降息的情況下，您能否幫助我們了解您預計存款組合將如何遷移？特別是從 NIB 到 IB 存款的遷移會逐漸停止嗎？或者是否存在 NIB 存款實際上再次開始增長的情況？

Well, I think what we're trying to describe is a sense that we're getting towards the tail end of this number. Partly because we're now 6 months away from the last time that the Fed raised rates. And then partly because if we do have rate cuts, it's going to start to disincent people moving out of noninterest-bearing. So that's what we're describing over the course of time. We've got to see how that develops through the course of the year.

嗯，我認為我們試圖描述的是我們正在接近這個數字的尾部的感覺。部分原因是距離聯準會上次升息還有 6 個月。部分原因是，如果我們確實降息，就會開始抑制人們放棄無息貸款。這就是我們隨著時間的推移所描述的。我們必須看看這一年的發展。

We'll take our final question from Gerard Cassidy of RBC.

我們將接受加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德·卡西迪的最後一個問題。

Brian, Alastair. You guys have obviously done a very good job in the consumer banking area with digital banking. And I frame that for you guys in this question, we hear a lot about AI and what it could do for the banking industry. And when you look out over the next 3 to 5 years and you invest in AI to improve efficiencies. Could it have a similar impact what digital banking did for Consumer Banking pre-iPhone to where we are today in your business? Or is it going to be more like blockchain, where there's a lot of discussion about the future of blockchain, but we don't hear much about that anymore. Do you guys have a view on what AI could be for your business over the next 3 to 5 years?

布萊恩，阿拉斯泰爾。顯然，你們在數位銀行的消費銀行領域做得非常好。在這個問題中，我為你們提出了這一點，我們聽到了很多關於人工智慧及其可以為銀行業做些什麼的事情。當你展望未來 3 到 5 年並投資人工智慧以提高效率。數位銀行對 iPhone 出現之前的消費者銀行業務所產生的影響是否與我們今天對您的業務產生的影響類似？或者它會更像區塊鏈，關於區塊鏈的未來有很多討論，但我們已經聽不太多了。你們對未來 3 到 5 年內人工智慧會為你們的企業帶來什麼有什麼看法？

I'm not -- I agree. I'm not sure that there's a relevant comparison to blockchain. But let's just focus on AI. If you look at '21, you can see the digital movement. One of the things in the digital movement you see is Erica in the lower left-hand page, lower left hand chart on Page 21, Gerard. And you can see that in the fourth quarter of the 170 million interactions with Erica, where people effectively answered on question, another 2 million people from last year to this year using it on a base of 16 up to 18 million people using unique users. And that's just an example. And that's AI in early stage. We built that starting 10 years ago, it operates on our data, uses natural language processing. You have to keep updating that for the way people use words that process. But think of 170 million phone calls, walks into branches, e-mails, et cetera, where inquiry would have to go through another place, and it's able the clients to do things and find them.

我不是——我同意。我不確定是否與區塊鏈有相關的比較。但讓我們只關注人工智慧。如果你看看 21 年，你就能看到數位化運動。您在數字運動中看到的事情之一是左下頁中的 Erica，第 21 頁的左下圖表，Gerard。你可以看到，在第四季度與Erica 的1.7 億次互動中，人們有效地回答了問題，從去年到今年，又有200 萬人使用了它，而使用唯一用戶的人數有16 到1800 萬人。這只是一個例子。這就是早期階段的人工智慧。我們從 10 年前開始建立它，它對我們的資料進行操作，使用自然語言處理。你必須不斷更新人們使用處理字詞的方式。但想想 1.7 億個電話、走進分行、發送電子郵件等等，查詢必須經過另一個地方，而客戶卻可以做事並找到他們。

So we think that there's vast promise for AI, and we're deploying in places, a lot of internal stuff -- we help employees work better, work faster. We're doing it. We have it in our coding shop. There's coders using it to continue to improve their effectiveness and learning it. But it's still -- there's still the care that has to be taken on data and usage and models and accountability, it's all that stuff is still high.

所以我們認為人工智慧有巨大的前景，我們正在地方部署很多內部東西——我們幫助員工更好、更快地工作。我們正在做。我們的編碼商店裡有它。有些程式設計師使用它來繼續提高他們的效率並學習它。但仍然需要注意數據、使用、模型和問責制，所有這些東西仍然很高。

So we're using for things that are a little easier. And we think it has great promise. It's just going to -- I'd say it's going to be more similar to digital what the pace will be, it would be a little bit of how far it can go before you start to run into difficulties, applying it effectively. But it plays off of the same thing that we've done in digital and Erica and other things. We bought Erica over the commercial side now so that CashPro uses Erica to answer questions, and we're seeing the use of that grow. And you can see the customers can interface and be comfortable with it, and that's good.

所以我們用它來做一些更容易的事情。我們認為它有很大的前景。我想說，它的步伐將更加類似於數位化，在你開始遇到困難之前，它會走多遠，有效地應用它。但這與我們在數位、艾莉卡和其他領域所做的事情是一樣的。我們現在在商業方面購買了 Erica，以便 CashPro 使用 Erica 來回答問題，我們看到了這種用途的增長。您可以看到客戶可以進行互動並對此感到滿意，這很好。

So it will have tremendous help as it's applied in more and more ways. We are still trying to hear and seeing if it really works, how much benefit it generates, can it be controlled under the model outputs controlled and also the things? But we've had algorithmic machine learning type models all over our company for years. And so the billions we've spent literally over the last 10 years on data -- on this data where we're getting the data in the right place, making sure it's dependable and the models operated easily under that aren't these open autonomous natural language models, but are models that are machine learning models, we've seen great promise. That's part really how we operate the company now basically on the same dollar amount of expenses we had in 2015 or '16 to give you a sense. So yes, it's been digitization, but it's also been using more of that. So it's got -- we have high hopes for it. We just have to make sure it does a great job for the customer.

因此，隨著它以越來越多的方式得到應用，它將產生巨大的幫助。我們還在嘗試聽聽看它是否真的有效，它產生了多少效益，它是否可以在模型輸出控制下控制以及這些東西？但多年來，我們公司各處都擁有演算法機器學習類型的模型。因此，過去10 年裡我們在數據上花費了數十億美元——在這些數據上，我們將數據放在正確的位置，確保數據可靠，並且模型在這些數據下易於操作，這並不是開放的、自治的自然語言模型，但作為機器學習模型的模型，我們已經看到了巨大的前景。這就是我們現在經營公司的方式，基本上與 2015 年或 16 年的支出金額相同，讓您了解一下。所以，是的，它一直是數位化，但它也一直在使用更多的數位化。所以我們對它抱有很高的期望。我們只需確保它為客戶提供出色的服務。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, we've been reading and seeing a lot of information about the private credit markets, making inroads continue -- and we know the shadow banking industry has been around for a long time, our entire careers. What are you guys seeing today? Is it more competitive against the Apollos and Blackstones in lending. And then second, they're also, I'm assuming customers of yours. So how do you balance servicing them, but at the same time, they could be a direct competitor in the lending markets.

非常好。作為後續行動，我們一直在閱讀和看到大量有關私人信貸市場的信息，並不斷取得進展——我們知道影子銀行業已經存在很長時間了，貫穿了我們的整個職業生涯。你們今天看到了什麼？在貸款方面與阿波羅和黑石相比是否更具競爭力？其次，我假設他們也是您的客戶。那麼你如何平衡為他們提供服務，但同時，他們可能是貸款市場的直接競爭對手。

Well, that's all the issues that we got to balance on a given day, but -- and we can originate loans into their platforms, and there are lots of things we can do. So we continue to work for that. I think to take it more broadly, my colleagues and I have made it clear that the structures around our industry, the methodology operating and the openness and the ability to operate outside has led to the mortgage business, largely being done outside the industry. And most other asset classes, for lack of a better term, being outside the industry and the private lending is just another case of that. And I think we're very competitive.

好吧，這就是我們在某一天需要平衡的所有問題，但是 - 我們可以向他們的平台發放貸款，我們可以做很多事情。因此，我們將繼續為此努力。我認為從更廣泛的角度來看，我和我的同事已經明確表示，我們行業的結構、運作方法以及開放性和外部運作的能力導致了抵押貸款業務，大部分是在行業之外完成的。而大多數其他資產類別，由於缺乏更好的術語，處於行業之外，而民間借貸只是另一個例子。我認為我們非常有競爭力。

We do a great job and we have $0.5 trillion of consumer -- excuse me, commercial loans outstanding. We have hundreds of billions of dollars of midsized companies, et cetera. So we think there's a way that we can do this with our clients and help them and help us. A lot of them are asking, can you help us originate loans? I think it is still a question ahead of whether the policy of having more things going on in the bank industry is good policy.

我們做得很好，我們有 5 兆美元的消費者——對不起，商業貸款未償還。我們有價值數千億美元的中型公司等等。因此，我們認為有一種方法可以與我們的客戶一起做到這一點，幫助他們，也幫助我們。很多人問，你能幫我們發放貸款嗎？我認為銀行業多搞一點的政策是不是好政策，還有一個問題。

We, of course, within the banking industry don't think it's a good policy because the reality, I think, an inherent part of your question was when these companies bounce around because of economic stress for them as an operator, the banking system has a workout methodology, not a liquidation methodology or trading methodology, and that served American enterprise very well. And so I think we have to be clear and see how it affects the economy that way. And those are issues that were true pre-pandemic going to become more acute.

當然，在銀行業內部，我們認為這不是一個好的政策，因為我認為，你的問題的一個固有部分是，當這些公司由於作為運營商的經濟壓力而反彈時，銀行系統就會這是一種鍛鍊方法，而不是清算方法或交易方法，這對美國企業非常有用。所以我認為我們必須弄清楚它如何影響經濟。這些是大流行前真正存在的問題，並將變得更加尖銳。

So we feel we'll be competitive no matter what. Nothing scares us. We've got a great team, and they do a great job. But it's endemic of the issue that you keep pushing too much capital regulation. Stuff will find its way outside the system. And that doesn't mean the risk has changed. It just means it moved from purview of the regulators, and that's one of the points we make. But on the other hand, we are working with those enterprises to help us be a combined effective competitor.

所以我們覺得無論如何我們都會有競爭力。沒有什麼能讓我們害怕。我們有一支優秀的團隊，他們做得很好。但持續推行過多的資本監管是一個普遍存在的問題。東西會在系統外找到出路。這並不意味著風險已經改變。這只是意味著它脫離了監管機構的職權範圍，這就是我們提出的觀點之一。但另一方面，我們正在與這些企業合作，幫助我們成為一個全面且有效的競爭對手。

This does conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd be happy to return the call to Mr. Brian Moynihan for closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我很樂意回電給 Brian Moynihan 先生以徵求結束意見。

Happy New Year to everyone. Thank you for all the time today and on a very busy day with lots of us reporting. As we summarized, fourth quarter was a good quarter and another strong year for our company, driven by organic growth from all our customer segments. Our digital capabilities continue to grow. Our deposits and loans grew and that's good news. Our NII continues to exceed what we tell you each quarter in terms of what we think is going to happen, which is good news. We gave you new guidance, which we plan to hit.

祝大家新年快樂。感謝您今天在非常忙碌的一天接受我們許多人的報道。正如我們總結的那樣，在我們所有客戶群的有機成長的推動下，第四季度是我們公司的一個良好季度和另一個強勁的一年。我們的數位化能力不斷增強。我們的存款和貸款成長了，這是個好消息。我們的 NII 繼續超出我們每季告訴您的預期，這是個好消息。我們給了你們新的指導，我們計劃實現這一目標。

Our capital markets activity remains good on both the investment banking side and the sales trading side. And importantly, to get the value of that revenue, we have to have good expense management. You saw us during the course of the year, take head count down from 218,000 to 212,900. You saw us take the expense down sequentially, sets us up good for next year. And with all that, our capital and asset quality remains strong as does our liquidity. So thank you, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

我們的資本市場活動在投資銀行方面和銷售交易方面都保持良好。重要的是，為了獲得收入的價值，我們必須有良好的費用管理。您在這一年中看到了我們，人數從 218,000 人減少到 212,900 人。您看到我們連續減少了費用，這為我們明年做好了準備。儘管如此，我們的資本和資產品質以及流動性仍然強勁。謝謝您，我們期待下個季度與您交談。

This does conclude today's Bank of America earnings announcement. You may now disconnect your lines, and everyone, have a great day.

今天的美國銀行收益公告到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了，祝大家有個愉快的一天。