美國銀行 (BAC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to Bank of America's earnings announcement. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call may be recorded. I will be standing by if you should need any assistance. It is my pleasure to turn the program over to Lee McEntire.

大家好，歡迎收看美國銀行的財報。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話可能會被錄音。如果您需要任何幫助，我將隨時待命。我很高興將這個項目交給 Lee McEntire。

Good morning. Welcome, and thank you for joining the call to review our third quarter results. Our earnings release documents are available on the Investor Relations section of the bankofamerica.com website. They include the earnings presentation that we'll make reference to during this call. I hope everyone's had a chance to review those documents. Our CEO, Brian Moynihan, will take -- make some opening comments before Alastair Borthwick, our CFO, discusses the details of the quarter.

早安.歡迎並感謝您參加電話會議以審查我們的第三季業績。我們的收益發布文件可在bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分取得。其中包括我們將在本次電話會議中參考的收益演示。我希望每個人都有機會查看這些文件。我們的執行長 Brian Moynihan 將在我們的財務長 Alastair Borthwick 討論本季的細節之前發表一些開場評論。

Let me just remind you that we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause our actual results to materially differ from expectations are detailed in our earnings materials and our SEC filings that are available on the website. Information about non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to US GAAP, can also be found in our earnings materials that are available on the website.

我只是提醒您，我們可能會在電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述並參考非公認會計準則財務指標。前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致我們的實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素已在我們網站上提供的盈利材料和 SEC 文件中詳細說明。有關非公認會計原則財務指標的信息，包括與美國公認會計原則的調節，也可以在我們網站上提供的收益資料中找到。

So with that, Brian, take it away.

所以，布萊恩，把它拿走。

Thank you, Lee, and good morning, and thank all of you for joining us for our discussion of our third quarter results. Bank of America continued to demonstrate strength this quarter in an economy that continues to be stable, albeit with slower growth and falling inflation. So many of you asked me from time to time, what do we see in our own consumer customer base? As we talked about many times, our consumer payments is an indicator of activity.

謝謝李，早安，感謝大家加入我們對第三季業績的討論。美國銀行本季繼續在經濟持續穩定的情況下展現實力，儘管經濟成長放緩且通膨下降。很多人不時問我，我們在自己的消費者客戶群中看到了什麼？正如我們多次談到的，我們的消費者付款是活動的指標。

Those payments were up 4% to 5% year-over-year for the quarter in the total money those consumers moved in the economy. The pace of year-to-year money movement has been steady since late summer this year after having fallen in the spring and early summer. This growth in consumer payments continues into October. This activity is consistent with how customers are spending money in the 2016 to 2019 timeframe when the economy was growing, inflation was under control.

本季消費者在經濟中轉移的資金總額年增 4% 至 5%。繼春季和初夏的下滑之後，自今年夏末以來，逐年貨幣流動的步伐一直保持穩定。消費者支付的這種成長趨勢一直持續到十月。這項活動與 2016 年至 2019 年經濟成長、通膨受到控制時客戶的支出方式一致。

This report has not meant to gain say that consumers are wary of the cost of living, worried about higher rates and other matters. But overall, activity is fine. Unemployment is low and wage growth is steady, both of which bode both for the consumer overall and for consumer asset quality. With respect to what we see in our commercial businesses, it is consistent with the lower growth economy. Line of credit usage rates remain lower than pre-pandemic levels. This does not surprise us with the dramatic increase in the cost of borrowing for small and medium-sized businesses. They aren't being indolent. They want to grow. They are simply being more careful and worry of final demand will hold. Therefore, they are being cost conscious across the board.

這份報告並不是要顯示消費者對生活成本持謹慎態度，擔心更高的利率和其他問題。但整體來說，活動還是不錯的。失業率較低，薪資成長穩定，對整體消費者和消費者資產品質來說都是好兆頭。就我們在商業業務中看到的情況而言，這與低成長經濟是一致的。信貸額度使用率仍低於疫情前的水平。對於中小企業借貸成本的急劇上升，我們並不感到驚訝。他們並不懶惰。他們想要成長。他們只是更加小心，對最終需求的擔憂仍然存在。因此，他們全面關注成本意識。

So how did Bank of America do against this backdrop? Bank of America, our commitment to responsible growth remains unwavering, and this quarter is another illustration of that. We grew, we did it the right way. In the third quarter, Bank of America generated $25.5 billion in revenue and earned $6.9 billion net income after tax. Year-to-date, we've generated net income of just over $20 billion. Four quarters ago, we called that a bottom would occur in our net interest income in the second quarter of 2024. Even with the rate environment that has bounced around quite a bit since we said that we got it right as we expected then and I indeed troughed in the quarter two. NII grew 2% this quarter. And as Alastair will note later, we expect NII to grow again in quarter four, even as the market expects two more rate cuts in quarter four.

那麼在此背景下美國銀行的表現如何呢？美國銀行，我們對負責任成長的承諾依然堅定不移，本季就是另一個例證。我們成長了，我們以正確的方式做到了。第三季度，美國銀行營收 255 億美元，稅後淨利 69 億美元。今年迄今為止，我們的淨利潤略高於 200 億美元。四個季度前，我們稱我們的淨利息收入將在2024 年第二季度觸底。到了這一點第二季陷入低谷。本季 NII 成長 2%。正如阿拉斯泰爾稍後將指出的那樣，我們預計NII將在第四季度再次成長，儘管市場預計第四季將再降息兩次。

This quarter, we saw a healthy revenue growth in our wealth and investment management business and in our global markets' businesses. We returned $5.6 billion of capital to shareholders, while also supporting the needs of our clients. So with that brief overview, let's dive into slide 2. Earnings per share came in at $0.81 this quarter. At $25.5 billion in revenue, we grew modestly from the third quarter '23 as improvement in noninterest income more than offset a year-over-year decline in net interest income.

本季度，我們的財富和投資管理業務以及全球市場業務的收入實現了健康成長。我們向股東返還 56 億美元資本，同時也支持客戶的需求。有了這個簡短的概述，讓我們深入了解幻燈片 2。我們的營收為 255 億美元，較 23 年第三季小幅成長，非利息收入的改善足以抵銷淨利息收入的年減。

Fees grew 5% year-over-year and represented 45% of total revenue. The strong year-over-year fee performance was led by a 15% improvement in investment in brokerage services, mostly in our global wealth management business. We also grew investment banking fees 18% year over year. Sales and trading revenue increased 12% year over year. In aggregate, these market-related revenue streams rose an impressive 13% year over year. Our total expense in the company increased 4%. You can attribute most of the year-over-year expense growth to these market-related areas. Overall, a good job by the team.

費用年增 5%，佔總收入的 45%。強勁的年比費用表現得益於經紀服務投資成長了 15%，其中大部分是我們的全球財富管理業務。我們的投資銀行費用也較去年同期成長了 18%。銷售和貿易收入較去年同期成長12%。總的來說，這些與市場相關的收入來源年增了 13%，令人印象深刻。我們公司的總開支增加了 4%。您可以將大部分同比支出成長歸因於這些與市場相關的領域。總的來說，團隊做得很好。

On asset quality, A few quarters ago, we told you that consumer credit losses will go down this quarter given delinquency trends we have seen at the time. We also told you that office losses would be lower. Both of these proved true again this quarter. Good asset quality resulted in net charge-offs and provision expense for this quarter at $1.5 billion, which was unchanged from last quarter. Our performance is partly attributable to the diversity and balance of the company. A little more than half earnings come from our consumer and GWIM businesses serving people, and the other half come through from our global banking and markets businesses serving companies and institutional investors.

關於資產品質，幾個季度前，我們告訴大家，鑑於我們當時看到的拖欠趨勢，本季消費者信貸損失將會下降。我們也告訴過您，辦公室損失將會更低。本季度，這兩點再次得到證明。良好的資產品質導致本季淨沖銷和撥備費用為 15 億美元，與上季持平。我們的業績部分歸功於公司的多樣性和平衡性。一半多一點的收入來自我們為人們服務的消費者和 GWIM 業務，另一半則來自我們為公司和機構投資者服務的全球銀行和市場業務。

So let's turn to see how we grew organically this quarter. We are now on slide 3. Our organic growth has been driven by a continued focus on customers and clients experience throughout all our businesses. Consumer leads the way delivering solid organic growth with high-quality accounts and engage clients. For the 23rd consecutive quarter, we added significant net new consumer checking accounts and expanded our customer base and market share.

那麼讓我們看看本季我們的有機成長情況如何。我們現在在幻燈片 3 上。消費者透過高品質的帳戶和吸引客戶來引領穩健的有機成長。我們連續第 23 個季度淨增加大量消費者支票帳戶，並擴大了我們的客戶群和市場份額。

We added 360,000 net new checking accounts this quarter, which brings our first nine months of '24 to more than 880,000 net new checking accounts. In wealth management, we added another 5,500 net new relationships this quarter. In our commercial businesses, we added hundreds of small business and commercial banking relationships. Also note that we saw a strong organic growth of investment balances with banking customers and growth in banking products to our investing clients in our GWIM business. This has led us to now manage $5.9 trillion in client balances of loans, deposits and investments across the consumer and wealth management clients. We saw flows of $62 billion into those business in the past four quarters.

本季我們淨新增了 36 萬個支票帳戶，這使得 24 年的前 9 個月淨新增支票帳戶超過 88 萬個。在財富管理方面，本季我們又淨增加了 5,500 個新關係。在我們的商業業務中，我們增加了數百個小型企業和商業銀行關係。另請注意，我們在 GWIM 業務中看到銀行客戶投資餘額的強勁有機成長以及為投資客戶提供的銀行產品的成長。這使得我們現在管理消費者和財富管理客戶的 5.9 兆美元的貸款、存款和投資客戶餘額。過去四個季度，我們看到這些業務的資金流入達 620 億美元。

In our Global Banking business, we saw low demand start to pick up late in the quarter. We again ranked third in Dealogic IB fees received and have a solid pipeline. Our global transaction services platform continues to grow around the world and showed strong deposit growth for our commercial businesses over the last year and a quarter. This quarter, global markets saw a continued momentum. Global markets recorded their 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth in sales and trading. Investments we've made in this business and the intensity of the teams has enabled a 35% improvement in sales and trading revenue in the past three years. Good work by (inaudible) and the team.

在我們的全球銀行業務中，我們看到低迷的需求在本季末開始回升。我們在收到的 Dealogic IB 費用方面再次排名第三，並且擁有堅實的管道。我們的全球交易服務平台在全球範圍內持續成長，並在過去一年和一個季度中顯示出我們商業業務的強勁存款成長。本季度，全球市場持續保持強勁勢頭。全球市場的銷售和交易量連續第十個季度實現年增長。我們在這項業務上的投資和團隊的強度使過去三年的銷售和交易收入提高了 35%。 （聽不清楚）和團隊的出色工作。

Our customers and clients continue to want more from us, especially when it comes to our digital capabilities. So let's discuss this on slide 4. Slide 4 highlights this continued success across our digital platforms. As usual, we include our disclosures on digital stats across the business, which we believe lead the industry. I commend you to the pages in the appendix, which give you more granular disclosure for each of the business's digital activities.

我們的客戶和客戶繼續希望從我們這裡得到更多，特別是在我們的數位能力方面。因此，讓我們在投影片 4 上討論這一點。像往常一樣，我們披露了整個企業的數位統計數據，我們認為這在行業中處於領先地位。我建議您閱讀附錄中的頁面，其中可以更詳細地揭露企業的每項數位活動。

Our fully integrated consumer banking investment application drives the utility for our customers across GWIM and consumer. The uses stats you see are strong proof points. Our second language capabilities also enhance the customers' experience. We have grown to more than 48 million active digital users, and those digital users logged in more than 3.6 billion times this quarter. We also continue to see more sales for their digital properties.

我們完全整合的消費者銀行投資應用程式推動了 GWIM 和消費者客戶的效用。您看到的使用統計數據就是強而有力的證據。我們的第二語言能力也增強了客戶的體驗。我們的活躍數位用戶數量已超過 4,800 萬，這些數位用戶本季的登入次數超過 36 億次。我們也繼續看到他們的數位資產銷售增加。

Digital sales represented 54% of our total consumer sales this quarter. Note that it simply takes both high touch and high tech to drive continued growth with individual clients across the wealth spectrum in America. Eric, our AI-enabled virtual assistant, reached $2.4 billion client interactions since its launch, and Zelle show continued user and usage increases. In our Wealth Management business, we continue to see full relationships increase with both investing and banking relationships being open. 75% of the new accounts in Merrell were opened digitally, whether they are banking accounts or investment accounts. This enables more efficient customer coverage for our advisory teams.

本季數位銷售額占我們消費者總銷售額的 54%。請注意，僅需要高接觸度和高科技就可以推動美國各個財富範圍的個人客戶的持續成長。 Eric，我們的人工智慧虛擬助理，自推出以來，客戶互動量已達 24 億美元，而 Zelle 的用戶和使用量持續成長。在我們的財富管理業務中，隨著投資和銀行關係的開放，我們繼續看到全面的關係不斷增加。 Merrell 75% 的新帳戶都是透過數位方式開設的，無論是銀行帳戶還是投資帳戶。這使得我們的諮詢團隊能夠更有效地涵蓋客戶。

Finally, 87% of our global banking relationship clients are digitally active. We have innovated and significantly streamlined service requests by enabling clients to directly initiate and track inquiries within our award-winning cash flow platform. As a result, app sign-ins for these clients increased nearly 80% in just the last 24 months. In summary, the economic environment remains solid issues remain out there to external factors that could affect our business and the economy generally. We still see great opportunities for continued growth across all our businesses.

最後，我們 87% 的全球銀行關係客戶都活躍於數位化領域。我們創新並顯著簡化了服務請求，使客戶能夠在我們屢獲殊榮的現金流平台中直接發起和追蹤查詢。因此，在過去 24 個月內，這些客戶的應用程式登入量增加了近 80%。總之，經濟環境仍然嚴峻，外部因素仍然存在可能影響我們業務和經濟的問題。我們仍然看到所有業務持續成長的巨大機會。

We are focused on driving market share in all our businesses. Investing in technology to further enhance the customer experience and continue to increase our efficiency. With NII -- now growth, with NI now growing and complementing our fee growth, along with our continued solid expense discipline, we expect to return to operating leverage as we move through the quarters in 2025.

我們致力於提高所有業務的市場佔有率。投資技術以進一步增強客戶體驗並持續提高我們的效率。隨著 NII 的成長、NI 的成長並補充我們的費用成長，以及我們持續嚴格的費用紀律，我們預計在 2025 年的季度中將恢復營運槓桿。

With that, I'll turn to Alistair for additional details.

接下來，我將向阿利斯泰爾詢問更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Brian. And I'm starting on slide 5 of the earnings presentation. We'll touch on more highlights noted here as we work through the material, and I'd just add that we delivered solid returns with a return on average assets of 83 basis points and return on tangible common equity of 12.8%. So let's move to the balance sheet on slide 6. where you can see that the balance sheet ended the quarter at $3.3 trillion of total assets, up $66 billion from the second quarter as global markets client demands expanded and commercial loans grew $16 billion in the quarter.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我從收益簡報的第 5 投影片開始。當我們閱讀材料時，我們將討論這裡提到的更多亮點，我只想補充一點，我們實現了穩健的回報，平均資產回報率為 83 個基點，有形普通股回報率為 12.8%。 So let's move to the balance sheet on slide 6. where you can see that the balance sheet ended the quarter at $3.3 trillion of total assets, up $66 billion from the second quarter as global markets client demands expanded and commercial loans grew $16 billion in the四分之一.

Otherwise, in the quarter, the investments of our excess liquidity saw a $10 billion reduction in hold to maturity securities and the combination of shorter-term liquidity investments of cash and available-for-sale securities were relatively flat to the second quarter. On the funding side, global markets grew to support balance sheet needs of our clients and total deposits grew $20 billion on an ending basis, it's noteworthy that our average deposits are now up for the fifth consecutive quarter.

除此之外，在本季度，我們的過剩流動性投資導致持有到期證券減少了 100 億美元，現金和可供出售證券的短期流動性投資組合與第二季度相對持平。在資金方面，全球市場的成長支持了我們客戶的資產負債表需求，年末總存款成長了 200 億美元，值得注意的是，我們的平均存款現已連續第五個季度成長。

Liquidity remained strong with $947 billion of global liquidity sources and that was up $38 billion compared to the second quarter. Shareholders' equity was up $2.6 billion with common equity up $4.6 billion and a preferred redemption driving a $2 billion decline in preferred. The increase in common equity compared to Q2 included $5.6 billion in capital returned to shareholders, partially offsetting our earnings and it included improvement in AOCI driven by an improvement from cash flow hedges given the drop in the long-term rates in the quarter.

流動性依然強勁，全球流動性來源達 9,470 億美元，較第二季增加 380 億美元。股東權益增加 26 億美元，其中普通股增加 46 億美元，優先贖回導致優先股減少 20 億美元。與第二季度相比，普通股的增加包括向股東返還 56 億美元的資本，部分抵消了我們的收益，考慮到本季長期利率下降，現金流對沖改善推動了 AOCI 的改善。

The $5.6 billion in capital distributions includes $2 billion in common dividends and the repurchase of $3.5 billion in shares. Tangible book value per share of $26.25 rose 10% from the third quarter of '23. And turning to regulatory capital. our CET1 level improved to $200 billion and the CET1 ratio was 11.8%, and that remains well above our new 10.7% requirement as of October 1. Risk-weighted assets increased modestly, driven by both lending activity and global markets needs to support clients. And our supplemental leverage ratio was 5.9% compared to the minimum requirement of 5%, which leads plenty of capacity for balance sheet growth. Our $463 billion of total loss-absorbing capital means our TLAC ratio remains comfortably above our requirements.

56億美元的資本分配包括20億美元的普通股股利和35億美元的股票回購。每股有形帳面價值為 26.25 美元，較 2023 年第三季成長 10%。並轉向監管資本。我們的CET1 水準提高至2000 億美元，CET1 比率為11.8%，截至10 月1 日，該比率仍遠高於我們新的10.7% 要求。加權資產小幅成長。我們的補充槓桿率為5.9%，低於5%的最低要求，這為資產負債表成長提供了足夠的空間。我們 4,630 億美元的損失吸收資本總額意味著我們的 TLAC 比率仍然遠高於我們的要求。

So let's dig a little deeper on deposits and the growth from the second quarter using slide 7. Here, we show you deposits and rates by line of business. Average deposits grew $45 billion or 2% year-over-year and the increased modestly linked quarter. Notably, quarter-over-quarter increases in rates paid continued to slow again this quarter, rising 7 basis points to 210. Consumer banking increased modestly, driven by product mix and higher rate product offerings. And global banking rate paid increased modestly, driven by growth in interest-bearing balances. It's worth noting that wealth management declined 1 basis point.

因此，讓我們使用投影片 7 更深入地了解存款和第二季的成長。平均存款年增 450 億美元，成長 2%，季增幅略有上升。值得注意的是，本季支付利率季增幅持續放緩，上升 7 個基點至 210。在計息餘額成長的推動下，全球銀行支付利率小幅上升。值得注意的是，財富管理下降1個基點。

We acted quickly following the September 50 basis point rate cut in our wealth business and our global banking business. And since late in the quarter, only a small portion of those cuts are reflected. Total rate paid for all deposits from these actions is expected to fall below 2% later in October as the fuller effect of the pass-throughs occur.

9 月我們的財富業務和全球銀行業務降息 50 個基點後，我們迅速採取了行動。自本季末以來，這些削減只反映了一小部分。隨著轉嫁效應產生更全面的影響，這些行動所支付的所有存款的總利率預計將在 10 月稍後降至 2% 以下。

Let's turn to loans by looking at average balances on slide 8. Loans in Q3 of $1.06 trillion improved 1% year-over-year, driven by solid commercial loan growth as well as credit card and vehicle loans. Overall, commercial loans grew 2% year over year. And importantly, this included a drop in commercial real estate loans of 6%. Commercial loans, excluding commercial real estate, grew 3% year-over-year and were up 6% annualized from the second quarter. Consumer banking loan growth was driven by credit card, small business and vehicle borrowing and the overall consumer growth was muted by a decline in mortgage balances as paydowns exceeded originations in a higher rate environment.

讓我們透過查看投影片 8 中的平均餘額來轉向貸款。整體而言，商業貸款年增2%。重要的是，其中商業房地產貸款下降了 6%。商業貸款（不包括商業房地產）年增 3%，年率較第二季成長 6%。消費者銀行貸款的成長是由信用卡、小型企業和汽車貸款推動的，而在較高利率環境下，由於還款額超過了初始貸款額，抵押貸款餘額下降，整體消費者成長受到抑制。

Let's turn our focus to NII performance on slide 9. Just to note that our trended investment of excess deposit slide is in our appendix on page 21. Deposit levels were $855 billion in excess of loans at the end of Q3 and continue to be a good source of value for shareholders, nearly $625 billion or 52% of our excess liquidity is in short-dated cash and AFS securities. The longer-dated lower-yielding hold-to-maturity book continues to roll off, and we reinvest that in higher-yielding assets. The blended yield of cash and securities on page 21 remains well above our deposit rate paid.

讓我們將注意力轉向投影片9 上的NII 表現。良好水準。期限較長、收益較低的持有至到期帳簿繼續減少，我們將其再投資於收益較高的資產。第 21 頁的現金和證券混合收益率仍然遠高於我們支付的存款利率。

So going back to slide 9 regarding NII on a GAAP non-FTE basis, NII in Q3 was $14 billion. And on a fully tax equivalent basis, NII was $14.1 billion. On our third quarter earnings call last year, we first provided our expectation that the second quarter would be the trough and then we would begin to grow in the third quarter of '24, marking an inflection point for NII and that's what you see this quarter. NII increased by $252 million from the second quarter, driven by a number of factors. Global markets activity and pricing; fixed asset repricing; and one extra day all benefited NII while higher funding costs partially offset those benefits. The 50 basis point rate cut in September also negatively impacted NII.

因此，回到幻燈片 9，關於基於 GAAP 非 FTE 基礎上的 NII，第三季的 NII 為 140 億美元。在完全稅等值的基礎上，NII 為 141 億美元。在去年第三季的財報電話會議上，我們首先提出了我們的預期，即第二季將是低谷，然後我們將在24 年第三季開始成長，標誌著NII 的拐點，這就是您在本季度看到的情況。在多種因素的推動下，NII 較第二季增加了 2.52 億美元。全球市場活動和定價；固定資產重新定價；多一天的時間都使 NII 受益，而較高的融資成本部分抵消了這些好處。 9 月降息 50 個基點也對 NII 產生了負面影響。

With regard to a forward view of NII, there are obviously several variables at play in the fourth quarter, and we still expect fourth quarter NII to grow and we expect it to be $14.3 billion or more on a fully tax equivalent basis. Now we note the following assumptions: First, we assume that the forward curve on October 10 is the one that materializes, so that includes a 25 basis point cut in November and another 25 basis points in December. We also assumed very modest balanced increases in both loans and deposits in Q4, building off the activity seen in Q3.

就NII的前瞻性而言，第四季度顯然有幾個變數在發揮作用，我們仍然預計第四季度NII將成長，並且我們預計在完全稅等基礎上將達到143億美元或更多。現在我們注意到以下假設：首先，我們假設 10 月 10 日的遠期曲線已成為現實，因此其中包括 11 月降息 25 個基點和 12 月再降息 25 個基點。我們也假設第四季貸款和存款平衡成長非常溫和，以第三季的活動為基礎。

Last quarter, we told you that we expect about $20 billion in the aggregate of fixed rate loans and securities to reprice on a quarterly basis. And those are expected to reprice into higher-yielding assets and provide a benefit to NII for many periods ahead. And as described previously, we expect to see roughly $200 million benefit in Q4 from the ISB alternative rate transition. So we think this sets us up well for 2025.

上個季度，我們告訴您，我們預計固定利率貸款和證券總額約為 200 億美元，每季重新定價。這些預計將重新定價為收益更高的資產，並在未來許多時期為NII帶來好處。如前所述，我們預計第四季度 ISB 替代利率轉型將帶來約 2 億美元的收益。所以我們認為這為我們 2025 年做好了準備。

With regard to interest rate sensitivity on a dynamic deposit basis, we provide a 12-month change in NII for an instantaneous shift above or below the forward curve. On that basis, a 100 basis point increase would benefit NII by $1.8 billion, while a decrease of 100 basis points would decrease NII over the next 12 months by $2.7 billion.

關於動態存款基礎上的利率敏感性，我們提供了NII 12 個月的變化，以反映遠期曲線上方或下方的瞬時變化。在此基礎上，增加 100 個基點將使 NII 受益 18 億美元，而減少 100 個基點將使未來 12 個月的 NII 減少 27 億美元。

Okay. Let's now turn to expense, and we'll use slide 10 for the discussion. We reported $16.5 billion in expense this quarter, up 1% from the second quarter driven by the revenue improvement in three primary areas that Brian noted earlier. Investment banking, investment and brokerage fees and sales and trading revenue all have more activity and incentive variability than up their revenues, and they were up 3% in aggregate versus the second quarter and up 13% year over year.

好的。現在讓我們轉向費用，我們將使用幻燈片 10 進行討論。我們報告本季支出為 165 億美元，比第二季度增長 1%，這得益於布萊恩早些時候提到的三個主要領域的收入改善。投資銀行、投資和經紀費用以及銷售和交易收入都比收入成長有更多的活動和激勵變化，與第二季度相比總計成長了 3%，與去年同期相比成長了 13%。

In Q3, our headcount of 213,000 was up a little more than 1,000 and this quarter, we saw the departure of roughly 2,000 summer interns, and we welcomed roughly 2,500 college graduates from the nearly 120,000 applications received. Regarding a forward view, in Q4, we don't expect much change in our head count. And with continued investments, we expect expense to be in line with Q3 at $16.5 billion. As we look into 2025, with an expected return of NII growth and through our expense discipline, we expect a return to operating leverage and improvement in our efficiency ratio.

第三季度，我們的員工人數為213,000 人，增加了1,000 人多一點，本季度，我們看到大約2,000 名暑期實習生離職，並從收到的近120,000 份申請中迎來了大約2,500 名大學畢業生。就前瞻性而言，我們預計第四季的員工數量不會有太大變化。隨著持續投資，我們預計支出將與第三季保持一致，為 165 億美元。展望 2025 年，隨著 NII 成長的預期回報以及我們的支出紀律，我們預期營運槓桿將恢復，效率比率將得到改善。

Let's turn to credit on slide 11. And the good news is there's not a lot to report here compared to the second quarter. Net charge-offs of $1.5 billion were flat compared to Q2. We've seen consumer losses in a pretty tight range for a few quarters now. Outside of that, we saw lower losses from office exposure. And otherwise, we had two somewhat unrelated commercial losses. The net charge-off ratio was 58 basis points, down 1 basis point from Q2. Provision expense was unchanged from Q2 at $1.5 billion as reserve levels remain constant. And with regard to reserve levels on a weighted basis, we remain reserved for an unemployment rate of 5% by the end of 2025 compared to the most recent 4.1% rate reported.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 11 的信用。淨沖銷額為 15 億美元，與第二季持平。幾個季度以來，我們已經看到消費者損失處於相當小的範圍內。除此之外，我們看到辦公室風險敞口帶來的損失減少。除此之外，我們還遭受了兩項有些無關的商業損失。淨核銷率為58個基點，較第二季下降1個基點。由於準備金水準保持不變，撥備支出與第二季相同，為 15 億美元。至於加權準備金水平，我們仍預期 2025 年底失業率為 5%，而最近報告的失業率為 4.1%。

On slide 12, we highlight the credit quality metrics for both our consumer and commercial portfolios. And there's nothing really noteworthy to highlight on this page. So let's move to the various lines of business and some brief comments on their results starting on slide 13 with consumer banking.

在投影片 12 上，我們重點介紹了消費者和商業投資組合的信用品質指標。此頁面上沒有什麼真正值得注意的地方。因此，讓我們從幻燈片 13 的消費者銀行業務開始，轉向各個業務領域並對其結果進行一些簡短評論。

Consumer banking continues to lead the company in organic growth, and this included another strong quarter of net new checking growth, another strong period of card openings, and investment balances for consumer clients, which climbed 28% year-over-year to a record $497 billion. It also included 12 months of strong flows at $29 billion in addition to market appreciation. As noted earlier, loans grew nicely year-over-year from credit card and vehicle as well as small business where we remain the industry leader. One highlight to note, our practice solutions lending group for doctors and dentists and related professionals saw loans grow 11% year-over-year. All of this organic growth helped to drive $2.7 billion in net income in Q3.

消費者銀行業務繼續引領公司實現有機成長，其中包括新支票淨增長又一個強勁季度、信用卡開戶又一個強勁時期，以及消費者客戶的投資餘額同比增長 28% 至創紀錄的 497 美元十億。除了市場升值之外，還包括 12 個月的 290 億美元強勁資金流入。如前所述，來自信用卡和汽車以及小型企業的貸款同比增長良好，我們仍然是行業領先者。值得注意的一個亮點是，我們為醫生、牙醫及相關專業人士提供的實踐解決方案貸款小組的貸款年增了 11%。所有這些有機成長幫助推動第三季淨利潤達到 27 億美元。

So reported earnings remained strong, declining 6% year-over-year as revenue declined from lower NII, partially offset by higher card income. With the trajectory shifting in NII, we should see earnings in this business begin to shift as well. Expense rose 5% as we continued our business investments. And those investments included those in our people, including the announcement of moving our minimum wage to $24 per hour, and that raises the minimum annualized salary for our associates to nearly $50,000. As you can see in the appendix, page 25, digital adoption and engagement continue to improve and customer satisfaction scores remain near record levels, illustrating the appreciation of enhanced capabilities from our continuous investments.

因此，報告的收益依然強勁，年減 6%，原因是 NII 較低導致收入下降，但卡片收入增加部分抵消了這一影響。隨著 NII 軌跡的轉變，我們應該會看到該業務的獲利也開始轉變。隨著我們繼續進行業務投資，費用增加了 5%。這些投資包括對我們員工的投資，包括宣布將最低工資提高到每小時 24 美元，這將我們員工的最低年薪提高到近 50,000 美元。正如您在第 25 頁附錄中所看到的，數位化採用和參與度持續提高，客戶滿意度得分保持在創紀錄的水平附近，這表明我們對持續投資所增強的能力的讚賞。

Bank of America's 23 million Zelle users are up 10% in the past 12 months and their volume usage is now up more than 20%. Customers are now using Zelle at nearly 3 times the rate the writing checks and Zelle usage has meaningfully surpassed the combination of checks written and ATM withdrawals.

美國銀行的 2,300 萬 Zelle 用戶在過去 12 個月中成長了 10%，其使用量目前成長了 20% 以上。目前，客戶使用 Zelle 的速度幾乎是開支票的 3 倍，而且 Zelle 的使用率明顯超過了開立支票和 ATM 提款的總和。

Moving to wealth management on slide 14. We produced good results, reflecting healthy organic growth and client activity with increased banking activities of our clients and the impacts of increased market levels together with strong assets under management flows. With a continued increase in banking product usage from our investing clients, the diversity of our revenue base continues to improve.

轉到幻燈片 14 上的財富管理。隨著我們的投資客戶對銀行產品使用的持續增加，我們收入基礎的多樣性不斷改善。

More than 60% of our wealth clients now have banking products with us and 30% of our revenue is now in net interest income to complement the fees earned in our advice model. Net income rose from the third quarter '23 to $1.1 billion this year. In Q3, we reported revenue of nearly $5.8 billion, growing 8% over the prior year led by 14% growth in asset management fees that Brian highlighted earlier.

我們超過 60% 的財富客戶現在擁有我們的銀行產品，我們 30% 的收入現在是淨利息收入，以補充我們在諮詢模式中賺取的費用。今年淨利從 2023 年第三季增至 11 億美元。第三季度，我們報告營收接近 58 億美元，比上年增長 8%，其中布萊恩早些時候強調的資產管理費用增加了 14%。

Expense growth reflects the fee growth and other investments for our future growth as we continue to grow our adviser force through hiring of both experienced advisers and graduates from our training program. We welcomed 5,500 Merrill and Private Bank net new households this quarter, and more than a third of those Merrill openings were driven by graduates from our training program. The business had a 25% margin and generated a strong return on capital of 23%. Average loans were up 3% year-over-year, driven by growth in custom lending and a pickup in mortgage lending.

費用成長反映了我們未來成長的費用成長和其他投資，因為我們透過聘請經驗豐富的顧問和培訓計畫的畢業生繼續擴大我們的顧問團隊。本季度，我們迎來了 5,500 個美林和私人銀行淨新家庭，其中超過三分之一的美林職缺是由我們培訓計畫的畢業生推動的。該業務的利潤率為 25%，資本回報率為 23%。在客製化貸款成長和抵押貸款增加的推動下，平均貸款年增 3%。

Both Merrill and the Private Bank continued to see healthy organic growth, producing strong assets under management flows of $65 billion year-over-year, which reflects a good mix of new client money as well as existing clients putting money to work. We should also highlight the continued digital momentum that you'll find on slide 27. As an example, 3/4 of Merrill Bank and investment accounts were opened digitally this quarter.

美林和私人銀行均持續保持健康的有機成長，管理資產流量年增 650 億美元，這反映出新客戶資金與現有客戶投入資金的良好組合。我們還應該強調您將在幻燈片 27 中看到的持續的數位化勢頭。

On slide 15, you see global banking results. This business produced earnings of $1.9 billion, down 26% year-over-year as improved investment banking fees and treasury services revenue were overcome by lower net interest income and higher provision expense. Revenue declined 6%, driven by the impact of interest rates and deposit rotation. In our global treasury services business, fees for managing the cash of clients continue to offset some of the NII pressure from higher rates.

在投影片 15 上，您可以看到全球銀行業績。該業務獲利 19 億美元，年減 26%，因為淨利息收入下降和撥備費用增加抵消了投資銀行費用和資金服務收入的改善。受利率和存款輪調影響，收入下降 6%。在我們的全球資金服務業務中，管理客戶現金的費用持續抵銷了利率上升帶來的部分NII壓力。

Investment banking had a strong quarter, growing fees 18% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, led by debt capital markets fees, mostly in leveraged finance and investment grade. We finished the quarter strong, maintaining our number three investment banking fee position. What began as a slow quarter this summer, gained some momentum through September, and the pipeline looking forward looks solid. An increase in provision expense from last year was driven by the previously noted commercial and CRE losses. Expense increased 7% year-over-year, including continued investments in the business, particularly around technology.

投資銀行業務季度表現強勁，費用年增 18%，達到 14 億美元，其中債務資本市場費用領先，其中大部分為槓桿融資和投資等級費用。我們在本季表現強勁，維持了投資銀行費用第三的位置。今年夏天開始的一個緩慢的季度，到了九月就獲得了一些動力，並且未來的產品線看起來很穩固。撥備費用比去年增加是由之前提到的商業和商業房地產虧損推動的。費用年增 7%，其中包括對業務的持續投資，特別是在技術方面的投資。

Switching to global markets on slide 16. I'll focus comments on results excluding DVA as we normally do. And the team continued their impressive streak of strong revenue and earnings performance, they achieved operating leverage and continued to deliver good return on capital. Earnings of $1.6 billion grew 23% year-over-year and return on average allocated capital was 14%.

在幻燈片 16 上切換到全球市場。該團隊繼續保持令人印象深刻的強勁收入和獲利業績，實現了營運槓桿並繼續提供良好的資本回報率。獲利 16 億美元，年增 23%，平均分配資本報酬率為 14%。

Revenue, again, ex DVA, improved 14% from the third quarter of last year as both sales & trading and investment banking fees for institutional clients improved nicely year over year. Focusing on sales & trading, ex DVA revenue improved 12% year-over-year to $4.9 billion. FICC increased 8% and while equities increased 18% compared to the third quarter of '23. FICC revenues remained strong, growing over both the prior year and the second quarter, driven by momentum in currencies trading. Equities had a record third quarter driven by strong trading performance in derivatives and cash. Year-over-year expenses were up 6% on revenue improvement and our continued investment in the business.

由於機構客戶的銷售和交易以及投資銀行費用較去年同期大幅提高，扣除 DVA 的收入較去年第三季增加了 14%。專注於銷售和貿易，扣除 DVA 收入年增 12%，達到 49 億美元。與 2023 年第三季相比，FICC 成長了 8%，而股票成長了 18%。在貨幣交易勢頭的推動下，FICC 營收依然強勁，比去年和第二季均有所成長。在衍生性商品和現金交易表現強勁的推動下，股票第三季創下歷史新高。由於收入改善和我們對業務的持續投資，費用年增 6%。

Finally, on slide 17. All other shows a loss of $295 million. Revenue was lower and included a charge to other income of roughly $200 million related to Visa's increase in its litigation escrow account. The decline in expense was driven by reduced cost of liquidating business and lower legal expense. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 6%, and excluding discrete items and the tax credits related to investments in renewable energy and affordable housing, the effective tax rate would have been approximately 24%.

最後，在投影片 17 上。收入有所下降，其中包括與 Visa 訴訟託管帳戶增加相關的約 2 億美元的其他收入費用。費用下降是由於清算業務成本的降低和法律費用的降低。我們本季的有效稅率為 6%，不包括離散項目以及與再生能源和經濟適用房投資相關的稅收抵免，有效稅率約為 24%。

So that's where I'll stop. And with that, we will open it up for Q&A.

這就是我要停下來的地方。接下來，我們將開放它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global.

（操作員說明）Jim Mitchell，Seaport Global。

Hey, good morning. I guess I'll ask the NII question, Alastair. You talked about still feel comfortable troughing in the second quarter poised to grow. So can you maybe give us a little bit more on -- based on the forward curve, any kind of rough thinking on how the trajectory from here beyond 4Q? And what kind of growth you may be thinking about in '25? Just any kind of bigger than a breadbox conversation would be helpful.

嘿，早安。我想我會問 NII 問題，阿拉斯泰爾。您談到在第二季的低谷中仍能保持成長勢頭。那麼，您能否根據遠期曲線給我們更多關於第四季度之後的軌蹟的粗略思考？您可能會考慮在 25 年實現什麼樣的成長？任何比麵包盒對話更大的對話都會有幫助。

Jim. Good morning. I think if we went back to three quarters ago, we sort of saw this trough appearing in the second quarter. And we felt like as the deposits were beginning to find a floor, we'd be in a position where we could begin to see NII grow. So obviously, that happened in Q3. And at this point, we feel like we're in a good position to do that again in Q4. We'll provide guidance, I think, for 2025 when we get back together again a quarter from now.

吉姆.早安.我想如果我們回到三個季度前，我們會看到這個低潮出現在第二季。我們覺得，隨著存款開始見底，我們就可以開始看到 NII 成長。顯然，這發生在第三季。在這一點上，我們覺得我們有能力在第四季度再次做到這一點。我認為，當我們在一個季度後再次聚在一起時，我們將為 2025 年提供指導。

Part of the reason we try not to do it 15 months in advance is because an awful lot moves with the rate curve. Remember, this year, at one point, we had six cuts, another point, we had one cut. And even this past quarter, I think the market was surprised with an extra cut. What we're focused on then is just driving the underlying organic growth.

我們盡量不提前 15 個月這樣做的部分原因是因為利率曲線會發生很大的變化。請記住，今年，我們在某一時刻進行了六次削減，在另一時刻，我們進行了一次削減。即使在過去的這個季度，我認為市場對額外的降息感到驚訝。那麼我們關注的只是推動潛在的有機成長。

So deposit growth, we're getting to a point that we've had five quarters in a row. Global banking is back to normal seasonality. Wealth is flattening out and consumer is slowing and is in a place now where we think we're pretty close to finding that floor. So deposits in a good place. The rotation is slowing. We got a little pickup in loan growth this past quarter. That's good. We've got the fixed rate asset repricing over time from which we'll benefit, and we've got some cash flow swabs resetting as well.

因此，存款成長已經達到連續五季成長的地步。全球銀行業已恢復正常季節性。財富正在趨於平緩，消費者的消費正在放緩，我們認為我們現在已經非常接近找到那個底線了。所以存款要放在一個好地方。旋轉速度正在減慢。上個季度我們的貸款成長略有回升。那挺好的。隨著時間的推移，我們將受益於固定利率資產的重新定價，而且我們也將重新調整一些現金流量。

So look, we're in a position where we're -- we believe we're going to grow NII again in the fourth quarter. That's going to set us up, I think, quite well in terms of 2025. And importantly, we've acted fast with that first couple of rate cuts. So we feel like we put ourselves in a good position to grow from here.

所以看，我們現在的處境是——我們相信我們的國家資訊基礎設施將在第四季度再次成長。我認為，這將使我們在 2025 年做好準備。所以我們覺得我們處於一個很好的位置，可以從這裡開始成長。

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe just a follow-up on the deposit question. You guys had really strong growth in net new checking accounts, but consumer deposits still shrinking a little bit. Do you see any change in behavior since the rate cuts? Or how are you thinking about consumer deposit growth and wealth too? I guess we're seeing commercial growth, but sort of those other pieces on the retail side that have yet to sort of inflect. How are you thinking about that?

好的。這很有幫助。也許只是存款問題的後續行動。你們的淨新支票帳戶成長確實強勁，但消費者存款仍然略有萎縮。自降息以來，您認為行為有任何改變嗎？或者您如何看待消費者存款成長和財富？我想我們正在看到商業成長，但零售方面的其他部分尚未有所改變。你覺得怎麼樣？

If you look across the last several weeks, the wealth management has basically been flat at that $280-odd billion level, Jim. And the consumer business it bounces around, it will move $10 billion on a pay day to give you a sense. But basically, the major moves are over and now we're about around [935 to 940] on a given day. Importantly, the noninterest-bearing piece going back to your generation new checking accounts seems to be stable. Much of the movement in the consumer business [writ] large has been for more interest rate-sensitive clients with higher balances, having moved and you're seeing that also slow.

吉姆，如果你看看過去幾週，財富管理基本上持平在 280 億美元的水平。而它所帶動的消費者業務，在發薪日就會轉移 100 億美元，給你一個感覺。但基本上，主要走勢已經結束，現在某一天的價格約為 [935 至 940]。重要的是，無息部分回到你們這一代新的支票帳戶似乎是穩定的。消費業務的大部分變動主要是針對餘額較高、對利率更敏感的客戶，他們的變動也很緩慢。

So we feel good about the stability of consumer at this point. And we can -- the deposits -- new accounts we're putting on today are the future of the franchise, and that's what we keep building towards. So we're investing to generate those accounts that are primary accounts in the household and start with an average balance of 5,000, 6,000 move up to 7,000, 8,000, 9,000 over time. So we feel good about it.

因此，我們對目前消費者的穩定性感到滿意。我們可以——存款——我們今天存入的新帳戶就是特許經營權的未來，這就是我們不斷建設的目標。因此，我們正在投資創建那些作為家庭主要帳戶的帳戶，從平均餘額 5,000、6,000 開始，隨著時間的推移逐漸增加到 7,000、8,000、9,000。所以我們對此感覺良好。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

One thing Jim, just as you think about it, remember that we're sitting the consumer we went for basically $750 billion in balances to the 940 level now, which is a significant difference in the earnings power of that business.

吉姆，正如你所想的那樣，請記住，我們所追求的消費者的餘額基本上達到了7500 億美元，現在已經達到了940 的水平，這對於該業務的盈利能力來說是一個顯著的差異。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC. (technical difficulty). Mr. Cassidy, your line is open. Please proceed with your question. We'll move next to Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行。 （技術難度）。卡西迪先生，您的線路已接通。請繼續你的問題。我們將轉到摩根士丹利的貝特西·格拉塞克 (Betsy Graseck) 旁邊。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Morning, Betsy.

早安，貝特西。

Just to follow up on the last thread of questions. Two things, one, the deposits. How much do you feel the rate environment has impacted you in terms of the deposit growth that you've generated here and the degree of shrinkage rate that you've seen in some of the businesses? Is it rate driven, do you think?

只是為了跟進最後一個問題。有兩件事，一是存款。就您在這裡產生的存款成長以及您在某些業務中看到的利率收縮程度而言，您認為利率環境對您的影響有多大？您認為這是利率驅動的嗎？

I guess, Betsy, at the end of the day, you remember that we've grown deposits for four straight quarters. What is rate driven is at the margin, consumer customers that have $300,000, $500,000 have moved -- have less than the deposit counts, honestly, than pre-pandemic when the aggregate holes up to think about that the constant customers that have been with us since then. And so the movement now is just bumping around based on seasonal flows of people paying taxes and people haven't spent money in the summer and paying down the bills from that and things like that. So we feel there's stability on the consumer side, stability on the wealth management side, including the movement of the higher imbalances in the market. And a lot of that pricing on both of those businesses just automatically given the rate cut.

我想，貝特西，到最後，你會記得我們的存款已經連續四個季度成長。利率驅動的是邊際，擁有 30 萬美元、50 萬美元的消費者客戶已經轉移——老實說，他們的存款數量少於大流行前，考慮到一直與我們在一起的固定客戶自那以後。因此，現在的運動只是根據納稅人的季節性流動而搖擺不定，人們在夏天沒有花錢並還清賬單等。因此，我們認為消費者方面是穩定的，財富管理方面是穩定的，包括市場失衡加劇的趨勢。鑑於降息，這兩家企業的大部分定價都是自動的。

And then on commercial balances, that's just evidence of the buildup of cash and corporate balance sheets and the activity levels of those customers. So we feel good across the board and basically for several quarters ago, we continue to grow the balances. The rate impacts really the higher end balances because remember, non-interest bearing in the consumers in low interest cost checking is driving a lot of the value is a stable balance.

然後就商業餘額而言，這只是現金和公司資產負債表累積以及這些客戶活動水平的證據。因此，我們整體感覺良好，基本上在幾個季度前，我們的餘額繼續增長。該利率確實會影響較高的最終餘額，因為請記住，低利息成本支票中消費者的無息正在推動穩定餘額的大量價值。

Right. And I know last quarter, we were talking a lot about the sweeps and that whole pricing dynamic. Anything this quarter to say about that reflecting on how you indicated in the slide. You're at [313] it came down 1 basis point. I mean it's like de minimis, right? So just the underlying question here is, are we past this whole sweep thing?

正確的。我知道上個季度，我們討論了很多關於清理和整個定價動態的問題。本季度對此有什麼要說的，請反映您在幻燈片中的表示方式。你在[313]，它下降了1個基點。我的意思是這就像微不足道的，對吧？所以這裡的根本問題是，我們是否已經過去了整個掃蕩的事情？

We've fully affected that through our customer basis, if that's a question last --

如果這是最後一個問題的話，我們已經透過我們的客戶群充分影響了這一點——

Okay. And then the other question I had just was on the global banking. Alastair, you mentioned that corporate loan demand picked up late in the quarter. Maybe you could give us some color on what's driving that? Is that mainly a function of the M&A picking up and the legs that you see to that demand would be really helpful to understand. Thanks so much.

好的。我剛才提出的另一個問題是關於全球銀行業的。阿拉斯泰爾，您提到企業貸款需求在本季末有所回升。也許您可以告訴我們是什麼推動了這個趨勢？這主要是併購回升的結果，您所看到的需求的變化將非常有助於理解。非常感謝。

Yeah. So look, we've obviously seen pretty modest loan growth over the course of the past year, and it's modest loan growth that we've put in our forward NII guidance. But we were pleased to see a little bit more loan growth at the end of the quarter there. That's why you see the balances up a little more end of period than perhaps the prior quarter. And the last two quarters have been better than the previous quarter.

是的。所以看，在過去的一年裡，我們顯然看到了相當溫和的貸款成長，而且我們在國家資訊基礎設施前瞻性指引中也提到了這種溫和的貸款成長。但我們很高興看到季度末的貸款成長有所增加。這就是為什麼您會看到期末餘額比上一季略有增加。而且最近兩個季度的情況都比上一季好。

So I don't know if that's early to call it a streak, but we're obviously pleased to see it. It's been pretty consistent across our small business. Our business banking, our commercial banking clients. And I'd say we're not really seeing revolver utilization picking up yet. Probably too early for that. Rates haven't come down that much or hadn't come down to really late in the quarter. So that potentially is a place for some upside and loan growth over time. But we haven't put that in our guidance at this stage.

所以我不知道現在稱之為連勝是否還為時過早，但我們顯然很高興看到它。我們的小型企業的情況非常一致。我們的商業銀行業務，我們的商業銀行客戶。我想說的是，我們還沒有真正看到左輪手槍的使用率上升。也許還為時過早。利率並沒有下降那麼多，或者在本季末還沒有下降到真正的水平。因此，隨著時間的推移，這可能會帶來一些上漲和貸款成長。但現階段我們尚未將其納入我們的指導中。

Okay, perfect. Thanks so much.

好的，完美。非常感謝。

Glen Schorr, Evercore.

格倫·肖爾，Evercore。

Hi, thank you. One quickie follow-up on the NII front. I'm just curious, current duration of the securities portfolio and maybe it's fixed and floating mix split and how you're thinking about that short duration as the forward curve starts to play out? Thanks.

你好，謝謝。 NII 方面的一個快速跟進。我只是很好奇，證券投資組合的當前久期，也許是固定和浮動混合分割，當遠期曲線開始發揮作用時，您如何考慮這段短暫的久期？謝謝。

Yeah. So not a great deal of change, Glenn, for us in terms of the securities portfolio from what we said before. Obviously, the hold-to-maturity continues to run off. I think it's now 13 quarters in a row. Now, the $9 billion or so this quarter, which allows us to reinvest at higher yields. So that remains basically our -- first off with respect to the investment strategy is just below that to continue rolling down. And we're going to continue to prioritize supporting loan growth for clients.

是的。格倫，因此，就我們之前所說的證券投資組合而言，變化並不大。顯然，持有至到期日繼續減少。我認為現在已經連續 13 個季度了。現在，本季約 90 億美元，這使我們能夠以更高的收益率進行再投資。因此，基本上我們的投資策略仍然是略低於繼續滾動的策略。我們將繼續優先考慮支持客戶的貸款成長。

And we can sort of see that HTM runoff over time funding the loans growth that we've had over time. Then whatever's left over from deposits are growing. We're normally putting into cash and cash equivalents or we're paying down expensive short-term liabilities. So if you look, you'd see that we've allowed about $15 billion or so of institutional CDs to roll off this quarter. And at the margin, we're taking a little bit of one- to three-year fixed rate, maybe $10 billion to $20 billion in the last couple of quarters. But remember, we're trying to balance capital, liquidity, earnings and it's less about a rate view and it's more about just how the portfolio composition is changing over time.

我們可以看到，隨著時間的推移，HTM 徑流為我們隨著時間推移的貸款成長提供了資金。然後存款剩下的就會成長。我們通常會投入現金和現金等價物，或償還昂貴的短期負債。因此，如果您仔細觀察，您會發現本季我們已允許發放約 150 億美元左右的機構 CD。在邊際上，我們採取了一點一到三年的固定利率，在過去幾季可能是 100 億到 200 億美元。但請記住，我們正在努力平衡資本、流動性、收益，這與利率觀點無關，而更多地與投資組合組成如何隨時間變化有關。

Yeah. Good color. I appreciate it. Wanted to maybe get a little bit more color in the opening remarks, you mentioned the tenth straight quarter of quarter-on-quarter improvements in markets revenue. It's clear you could see.

是的。顏色好。我很感激。您希望在開場白中獲得更多色彩，您提到了市場收入連續第十個季度環比增長。很明顯你可以看到。

Can you remind us exactly where you've been investing the lion's share of both people and balance sheet and is that an ongoing process that we can -- obviously, we can't get a core every single quarter. But meaning, is this an ongoing capital effort to continue to boost results across markets. Thanks.

您能否準確地提醒我們，您在人員和資產負債表上的最大份額投資在哪裡？但意義在於，這是一項持續的資本努力，旨在繼續提高整個市場的表現。謝謝。

Yeah. Well, look, we pointed out before, and I think you see it again in our results this quarter. If you look at the organic growth highlights on page 3, you'll see pretty good growth in each of our four big segments. Markets is no different in that regard relative to the other three and that we continue to invest in that business. I wouldn't pick out any particular area in fixed income or equities for people investments.

是的。好吧，看，我們之前指出過，我想您在本季度的業績中再次看到了這一點。如果您查看第 3 頁的有機成長亮點，您會發現我們的四大細分市場中的每個細分市場都取得了相當不錯的成長。市場在這方面與其他三家業務沒有什麼不同，我們將繼續投資這項業務。我不會挑選固定收益或股票中的任何特定領域進行人員投資。

I think as [Jimmy DeMare] has highlighted, it's about for us filling gaps with existing clients and making sure we're there for them over time. So we've added people across the various businesses. And then with respect to balance sheet, it's a little bit of RWAs. As Brian highlighted, it's a little bit of liquidity, allowing us to support the financing businesses.

我認為，正如[Jimmy DeMare]所強調的那樣，我們要填補現有客戶的空白，並確保隨著時間的推移，我們會為他們提供支援。因此，我們增加了各個業務領域的人員。然後就資產負債表而言，有一點 RWA。正如布萊恩所強調的，這是一點流動性，使我們能夠支持融資業務。

And I'd say we're benefiting from the fact that we've got a leading sales and trading franchise in each of the major elements of fixed income and equities that allows to capture the benefits of having a diversified business with an organic growth strategy?

我想說的是，我們受益於這樣一個事實：我們在固定收益和股票的每個主要領域都擁有領先的銷售和交易專營權，這使得我們能夠透過有機成長策略獲得多元化業務的好處？

I think Glenn, it's -- if you've been following our company for a long time, and it's been five, six, seven years when we started saying our position was set in the business that we could start to grow, keeping it balanced to the overall company. So at $800 billion to $900 billion of balance sheet in the market every day in the security with Jim and the team, they do a great job turning it over, managing the risk well of ours, well managed, you can see the no trading losses for many, many quarters in a row or one maybe.

我想格倫，如果你長期以來一直關注我們公司，那麼我們已經五、六年、七年了，當我們開始說我們的定位是在業務中確定時，我們可以開始成長，保持平衡到整個公司。因此，每天市場上有 8000 億至 9000 億美元的資產負債表在吉姆和團隊的擔保下，他們做得很好，很好地管理了我們的風險，管理得當，你可以看到沒有交易損失連續很多很多季度，也可能是一個季度。

And so the way they're running it this long-term investment in this business requires investment around data, controls, measurement, financial reports nonfinancial reports, trade reports billions of trades a day reported. So it's a business where we think we have a very good position because of talent and the team does a good job, but it's not something we decided to do yesterday, it's about a long-term build that we've been building and growing and keeping a balance in the rest of the company, so -- and it continues to do good.

因此，他們對該業務的長期投資的運作方式需要圍繞數據、控制、測量、財務報告、非財務報告、每天報告數十億筆交易的交易報告進行投資。因此，我們認為，由於人才和團隊的出色工作，我們處於非常有利的位置，但這不是我們昨天決定做的事情，而是我們一直在建立和發展的長期建設，保持公司其他部門的平衡，因此——它會繼續表現良好。

Great. Thanks for all that.

偉大的。感謝這一切。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

I was wondering if you could talk about the outlook for share buybacks. You did $3.5 million this quarter, obviously, generate a lot of capital has excess capital and sort of the outlook for loan growth is for some, but not a ton so.

我想知道您是否可以談談股票回購的前景。顯然，本季你做了 350 萬美元，產生了大量資本，資本過剩，貸款成長的前景對某些人來說是有利的，但不是很多。

Morning, Matt. No change to the capital strategy. Obviously, what's become very clear over the course of the past year is we've got the capital. So we built the capital over time to make sure that we were in a good position for Basel III final as originally proposed if it were put together today. And we have the time to build more over time because after dividend, you're talking about 30 basis points of capital generation every quarter. So we're waiting at this point to see the final rules as they come out. That's going to allow us to give you a much more precise answer over time.

早安，馬特。資本策略沒有改變。顯然，在過去的一年裡，我們已經擁有了足夠的資金。因此，我們隨著時間的推移積累了資本，以確保我們在巴塞爾協議 III 決賽中處於有利地位，正如最初提議的那樣，如果今天完成的話。隨著時間的推移，我們有時間建立更多的資產，因為在股息之後，每季的資本產生量約為 30 個基點。因此，我們現在正在等待最終規則的出台。隨著時間的推移，這將使我們能夠為您提供更準確的答案。

And the waterfall of priority remains exactly the same. It's number one, we got to support the clients. You saw that last quarter with the loan growth. That's always going to be our priority to support the clients, invest in the future of the business. Number two, we want to maintain and grow the dividend over time. We've added another 8% to the dividend this quarter, and we want to make sure that we're in a great place to hurdle the regulatory minimum. So we feel good there. And then number three, we'll use what's left to return it to you, the shareholder. This quarter, that's another $3.5 billion. That's on top of the $3.5 million last quarter. So we're in a good position, I think, to support the future growth of the company and to continue to buy back shares over time.

並且優先順序的瀑布保持完全相同。這是第一，我們必須支持客戶。你在上個季度的貸款成長中看到了這一點。支持客戶、投資企業的未來始終是我們的首要任務。第二，我們希望隨著時間的推移維持並增加股息。本季我們又增加了 8% 的股息，我們希望確保我們處於能夠跨越最低監管要求的有利位置。所以我們在那裡感覺很好。第三，我們將用剩下的錢將其回饋給您，股東。本季又增加了 35 億美元。這還不包括上季 350 萬美元的收入。因此，我認為我們處於有利地位，可以支持公司的未來成長並隨著時間的推移繼續回購股票。

Okay. And then just a different topic. You guys have talked about this concept of the normalized net interest margin of about 2.3%, now a couple of few years. Any updates on the timing of that? And then I think a lot of that is being driven by the fixed rate asset repricing. But how does lower rates impact there. Can you reach that level with the current (inaudible), for example? Thank you.

好的。然後只是一個不同的話題。你們已經談論了大約 2.3% 的標準化淨利差這個概念，現在已經有幾年了。有關於時間安排的任何更新嗎？我認為這很大程度上是由固定利率資產重新定價所推動的。但較低的利率對那裡有何影響？例如，您能在當前（聽不清楚）的情況下達到該水平嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. Well, look, the most important thing is we've got to get back to growing NII, and we've been saying that now for three quarters believing that Q2 would be the trough. So we demonstrated the growth this quarter. We're in a good position to do it again next quarter. And we're on the path.

是的。嗯，看，最重要的是我們必須恢復 NII 的成長，而且我們四分之三以來一直在說，相信第二季將是低谷。所以我們展示了本季的成長。我們處於有利位置，可以在下個季度再次做到這一點。我們正在路上。

We're poised to improve with NII from here. It's a grind every quarter. We've got to continue to grow the deposits. We've got to grow the loans. We've got to make sure that we think about pricing across the board.

我們準備好從這裡開始透過 NII 進行改進。每個季度都是一個苦差事。我們必須繼續增加存款。我們必須增加貸款。我們必須確保全面考慮定價。

You are right to highlight we've got some attractive fixed rate asset repricing over time. We've got some reinvestment over time. And then obviously, we have to watch what goes on with the rate curve when this is a surprise like an extra 25 basis points that will flow through the entire fourth quarter, it might set us back a few weeks. But we just keep doing what we're doing, the organic growth is going to fuel the net interest income growth over time. And then NII will be an output and NII will remain our focus.

您強調，隨著時間的推移，我們已經有了一些有吸引力的固定利率資產重新定價，這是正確的。隨著時間的推移，我們進行了一些再投資。顯然，我們必須觀察利率曲線的變化，當整個第四季出現額外 25 個基點這樣的意外時，這可能會讓我們倒退幾週。但我們只是繼續做我們正在做的事情，隨著時間的推移，有機成長將推動淨利息收入的成長。然後NII將成為一個輸出，NII將仍然是我們的焦點。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

Hi. I guess I'm asking the same question each quarter, but it's because the efficiency ratio seems to be getting worse. So reconciling slide 4 with slide 10, once again, slide 4 is your digital adoption slide, which shows 75% to 90% adoption in all of your lines of business and the trends are all getting better. So much more of a digital company. And then if we look at slide 10 and your efficiency ratio is 65% versus 64% last quarter versus 63% a year ago with non-comp expense up this quarter. So when do we get back to those days when we count the number of quarters of consecutive positive operating leverage and kind of what's the disconnect here?

你好。我想我每季都會問同樣的問題，但這是因為效率比率似乎越來越糟。因此，將投影片 4 與投影片 10 進行協調，投影片 4 是您的數位化採用投影片，它顯示您所有業務線的採用率達到 75% 到 90%，而且趨勢都在變得更好。更像是一家數位公司。然後，如果我們看一下投影片 10，您的效率率為 65%，上季為 64%，而一年前為 63%，本季非補償費用有所增加。那麼，我們什麼時候才能回到那些日子，當我們計算連續正經營槓桿的季度數時，這裡有什麼脫節呢？

Yeah. Okay. So look, that's what we're focused on is getting back to that operating leverage, Mike. The pressure right now is coming largely from incentive comp related to the fee businesses. So think about sales and trading up 12%, investment banking up 18%, asset management up 14%.

是的。好的。所以，麥克，我們關注的重點就是恢復營運槓桿。目前的壓力主要來自與收費業務相關的激勵補償。想想銷售和交易成長 12%，投資銀行成長 18%，資產管理成長 1​​4%。

If you look at wealth management loan, we're talking about $200 million there just in that segment alone. So that's a good investment and it's a good return. And I think if you strip that out, you see we're doing pretty well in an inflationary environment. We expect good fees from here. We expect the good expense that comes with that.

如果你看看財富管理貸款，我們談論的僅是該細分市場的貸款額就高達 2 億美元。所以這是一項很好的投資，也是一個很好的回報。我認為，如果你剔除這一點，你會發現我們在通膨環境中表現得相當不錯。我們期望從這裡收取豐厚的費用。我們預計隨之而來的是可觀的費用。

And then it's about managing the rest. It's about operational excellence. It's about the digital. And as the NII shines through, together with the fees. And as the credit costs continue to normalize, we think we're in a good position to deliver operating leverage again. So we're looking forward to getting back to that period, and it's just about grinding out NII growth at this point.

然後是管理其餘部分。這是關於卓越營運。這是關於數字的。隨著國家資訊基礎設施（NII）與費用一起閃耀。隨著信貸成本繼續正常化，我們認為我們處於有利地位，可以再次提供營運槓桿。因此，我們期待著回到那個時期，此時此刻的目的只是為了抑制 NII 的成長。

And when do you think the NII shining through will help that inflection? Is this a fourth quarter event? Is it next year? Can you give us a sneak preview for next year on what you're thinking just because it's been a little bit of a slog admittedly with the headwind from NII.

您認為 NII 的光芒何時有助於這種轉變？這是第四季的活動嗎？是明年嗎？您能否給我們先睹為快一下您明年的想法，因為不可否認，在 NII 的逆風下，這有點困難。

Yeah. Well, look, I think, again, this is one of those things where we got to see the deposits turnaround in all of the businesses, and we got to make sure that we've got the NII trajectory. We kind of feel like that's going to be a 2025 operating leverage question, and we'll be able to update you, I think, with some precision as we get into the fourth quarter. Some of that's going to depend on the rate curve. We just -- and we'll play it by year as we go through.

是的。好吧，我想，這也是我們必須看到所有業務的存款好轉的事情之一，我們必須確保我們掌握了 NII 軌跡。我們感覺這將是一個 2025 年營運槓桿問題，我想，當我們進入第四季度時，我們將能夠以一定的精確度向您通報最新情況。其中一些將取決於利率曲線。我們只是──我們會逐年進行。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Vivek Juneja, JPMorgan.

維韋克·朱尼賈 (Vivek Juneja)，摩根大通。

Hi. Thanks. Alastair, I just wanted to go through the waterfall slide you had in the second quarter deck on NII. Obviously, you've got the day count, and you've talked about the (inaudible) hedge benefit coming on. Can you talk through the other pieces that you had on that slide on the slide was not this quarter?

你好。謝謝。阿拉斯泰爾，我只是想穿過 NII 第二季度甲板上的瀑布滑梯。顯然，您已經計算了天數，並且您已經談到了即將到來的（聽不清楚）對沖收益。您能談談幻燈片上不是本季的其他內容嗎？

Yes. I think if you were to look -- we haven't updated it here because we're trying to get a six-month forward view back at the time, and it was just helpful to do it that way. Now we're just giving the three months, we just figured we would give you the overall guidance. You're going to see the same component parts, Vivek, as we laid out there. So largely speaking, I'd say Q3 laid out the way that we thought it would and Q4 is setting up pretty much the same way also.

是的。我想如果你看的話——我們沒有在這裡更新它，因為我們試圖獲得當時六個月的前瞻性觀點，這樣做很有幫助。現在我們只給你三個月的時間，我們只是想給你整體指導。你將看到與我們在那裡佈置的相同的組件，Vivek。總的來說，我想說第三季的佈局方式與我們想像的一致，第四季的設定方式也幾乎相同。

We're going to get some benefit from the Busby transition feeding back into the P&L. We're going to get some benefit from the fixed rate assets repricing over time. Some of that comes from things like mortgage, residential mortgage on our books, some of it comes from CVL. Some will come from HTM securities rolling off and reinvestment and we'll get some benefit from cash flow swaps. So that remains something that's sort of underlying all of the quarters going forward.

我們將從巴斯比轉變中獲得一些收益，並將其回饋到損益表中。隨著時間的推移，我們將從固定利率資產重新定價中獲得一些好處。其中一些來自我們帳簿上的抵押貸款、住宅抵押貸款等，一些來自 CVL。一些將來自 HTM 證券轉存和再投資，我們將從現金流互換中獲得一些收益。因此，這仍然是未來所有季度的基礎。

And then the remaining piece is the part that we work so hard on. It's the growing deposits, growing loans, it's the organic growth going forward and coming through in the numbers versus what happens with the rate curve. So I think as we get together in Q4, we'll probably give you a pretty good sense for what that looks like as it goes through 2025.

然後剩下的部分就是我們努力工作的部分。這是存款的成長，貸款的成長，這是未來的有機成長，並透過數字與利率曲線的變化來體現。因此，我認為當我們在第四季度聚在一起時，我們可能會讓您對 2025 年的情況有一個很好的了解。

And Alastair, what about the other two pieces? So you have $225 million negative impact from rate cuts, obviously, more there and at the Global Markets NII. Any color on those two components?

阿拉斯泰爾，另外兩件怎麼樣？因此，降息會帶來 2.25 億美元的負面影響，顯然，在全球市場 NII 中影響更大。這兩個組件有顏色嗎？

I'd say on the rate cuts, if you were to go back to when we provided Q3 guidance at the time we said one cut in September, one in October, one in November. And as it turns out, we all know that there were two cuts in September. That extra cut flows all the way through the fourth quarter. It's not just two weeks in the quarter or six weeks since the full quarter. So that's an additional headwind, if you like.

關於降息，如果你回到我們提供第三季指引時，我們說九月降息一次，十月份降息一次，十一月份降息一次。事實證明，我們都知道 9 月有兩次削減。額外的削減一直持續到第四季。這不僅僅是季度中的兩週或整個季度後的六週。如果你願意的話，這是一個額外的阻力。

So that obviously hurts overall. Global markets is liability sensitive, and they've continued to grow their loans. So I think if the rate cuts hurt us a little bit more in that original waterfall, you get a little bit of that back in Global markets NII. So that probably answers those two elements.

所以這顯然會傷害整體。全球市場對負債非常敏感，貸款持續成長。因此，我認為，如果降息在最初的瀑布中對我們造成的傷害更大一點，那麼您將在全球市場 NII 中得到一點回報。這可能回答了這兩個要素。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Sharon Leung, Wolfe Research.

莎朗梁，沃爾夫研究。

Hi. I'm calling in for Steven Chubak. Just on the security side. I know last quarter, you had laid out the repricing tailwind of about 300 basis points on securities, a little bit less on the loan side. Can you just give us an update on where those figures sit today?

你好。我要找史蒂文·丘巴克。只是在安全方面。我知道上個季度，你們為證券制定了約 300 個基點的重新定價順風，貸款方面稍微少了一點。您能否向我們介紹一下這些數字今天的最新情況？

Yeah. I'd say I just used probably 250 on the securities, probably 250 on the mortgages, probably 100 on the CVL, that probably gets you in the right ballpark, Sharon.

是的。我想說，我只是用了大約 250 美元購買證券，可能用 250 美元購買抵押貸款，可能用 100 美元購買 CVL，這可能讓你猜對了，莎倫。

Perfect. And then just another quick follow-up on the securities portfolio. I know you guys are seeing some repricing tailwinds there, but have you ever given any thought on like doing a bigger repositioning action just because the market seems to be responding favorably to some similar actions of some of your peers?

完美的。然後是對證券投資組合的另一個快速跟進。我知道你們在那裡看到了一些重新定價的順風車，但是你們有沒有想過僅僅因為市場似乎對你們的一些同行的一些類似行動做出了積極的反應，就採取了更大的重新定位行動？

So at this stage, we don't see any need for that. Remember, most of our securities in the available for sale. We've got those held at this point in treasury swap to floating. And we feel like if you look at the NII sensitivity of the company over time, it's come down with the composition of our portfolio. So we feel like we're in a good position at this point to grow NII, grow earnings and we obviously start with a very good base of liquidity and capital. So no plans to reposition any at this point.

因此，在現階段，我們認為沒有任何必要。請記住，我們的大部分證券都可供出售。我們目前已將其持有的國債互換為浮動貨幣。我們覺得，如果你隨著時間的推移觀察公司的 NII 敏感性，你會發現它隨著我們投資組合的組成而下降。因此，我們覺得目前我們處於一個有利的位置，可以增加NII、增加收益，而且我們顯然是從非常好的流動性和資本基礎開始的。所以目前沒有計劃重新定位。

Okay. Perfect. Thank you so much.

好的。完美的。太感謝了。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀集團。

Hi and good morning. Appreciate that you want to wait until January, Alastair, to give us NII update, given how much is changing or how much has been changing in the curve. So maybe I'm going to ask this this way. You've talked about hedges in the past in terms of the sensitivity of your floating rate loans, specifically in commercial. As we think about forecasting for whatever rate curve turns out and you think about your floating rate loans ex card, should we assume a similar sensitivity or on the way down or on the way up, excluding (inaudible) or will the hedges essentially give you some floor in that your sensitivity to repricing going forward, again, as (inaudible) is not as significant as it was on the way up.

你好，早安。感謝您想等到一月份，阿拉斯泰爾，給我們 NII 更新，考慮到曲線正在發生多少變化或已經發生了多少變化。所以也許我會這樣問。您過去曾就浮動利率貸款（特別是商業貸款）的敏感性談論過對沖。當我們考慮預測任何利率曲線結果時，並且您考慮您的浮動利率貸款（除卡外）時，我們是否應該假設類似的敏感性或下降或上升，排除（聽不清楚）或對沖本質上會給您帶來好處某種程度上，您對未來重新定價的敏感度再次，因為（聽不清楚）並不像上漲時那麼重要。

Yeah. So I think it's okay to start with the same sensitivity on the way down is up because the company is largely speaking, positioned in the same way. At the same time, you put your finger on it, we are going to benefit from repricings over time. And we mentioned last quarter, and we've talked about already on this call, the fact that we've got the various securities and the various new originations that replace those loans that are maturing. So that remains the case.

是的。因此，我認為在下跌和上漲過程中以同樣的敏感性開始是可以的，因為該公司基本上以相同的方式定位。同時，只要你動動手指，隨著時間的推移，我們將從重新定價中受益。我們在上個季度提到過，我們已經在這次電話會議上討論過，我們已經擁有各種證券和各種新的起源來取代那些即將到期的貸款。所以情況仍然如此。

And then we've got some cash flow swaps, a number of them are pointed against the commercial. And as we -- particularly as we get into the third quarter and fourth quarter of '25, you'll see a benefit in commercial yields there because those ones are at lower rates, and they will be repriced in Q3 and Q4.

然後我們有一些現金流互換，其中一些是針對商業廣告的。當我們——特別是當我們進入 25 年第三季和第四季時，你會看到商業收益率的好處，因為這些收益率較低，並且將在第三季和第四季重新定價。

So a little bit of cushion there. That's one of the reasons that as we look forward into NII, we can sort of see how this repricing that's taking place. Remember, we're coming off of a period now with a long period, 15 years of a very, very low set of yields. And we're coming back now to something where you can really see the full value of our deposit base. And it takes a while. It's quarter by quarter. We just got to let it develop over time.

所以那裡有一點緩衝。這就是當我們展望 NII 時，我們可以看到這種重新定價是如何發生的原因之一。請記住，我們現在正在經歷一個很長一段時期，即長達 15 年的收益率非常非常低的時期。我們現在回到您可以真正看到我們存款基礎的全部價值的地方。這需要一段時間。這是一個季度一個季度的。我們只需讓它隨著時間的推移而發展。

And my follow-up question is, clearly, you have one of the best views on deposit behavior in the US. And it's been so long since we've seen a neutral rate that's not zero. So I guess a two-part question. The first is, should we similarly assume the same ability to recapture on deposit repricing on the way down as it was on the way up in terms of the same deposit beta? And as we think about 2025, it may have better loan growth, where do you think if we -- if our neutral rate is [2.75, 3%] where does Bank of America's natural deposit costs fall relative to that?

我的後續問題是，顯然，您對美國的存款行為有最好的看法之一。我們已經很久沒有看到非零的中性利率了。所以我想這是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。第一個問題是，我們是否應該同樣假設在存款重新定價下降時重新獲得與存款貝塔值上升時相同的能力？當我們考慮 2025 年時，貸款成長可能會更好，您認為如果我們的中性利率為 [2.75, 3%]，美國銀行的自然存款成本相對於此會下降多少？

Erika, I think much discussion over the last couple of years about betas and everything. But if you look, we sort of stand at the end of the third quarter, the difference between Fed funds and the total interest-bearing cost of our deposits is around 250, almost 260 basis points. If you think -- if you look at quarter two in '19, when the Fed funds hit the highest rate in the last cycle, that difference was 160 basis points, 170 basis points. So there's a fun -- what you're pointing out, leave aside betas and everything else there's a fundamental difference, there's 100 basis points in spread. We can see interest-bearing side and we take the noninterest-bearing piece that obviously has a bigger impact.

艾莉卡（Erika），我認為過去幾年關於測試版和其他一切的討論很多。但如果你看一下，我們在第三季末的時候，聯邦基金和我們存款的總計息成本之間的差異約為 250 至 260 個基點。如果你想想，如果你看看 19 年第二季度，當時聯邦基金利率達到上一個週期的最高利率，那麼差異是 160 個基點、170 個基點。所以這很有趣——你所指出的，拋開貝塔係數和其他一切因素不談，有一個根本性的區別，利差有 100 個基點。我們可以看到有息的一面，我們採取顯然影響更大的無息部分。

So this will settle in, but you are right for the -- and you've been around this industry for a long time. So if you go back and think about when the Fed's funds rate was sustained in the 2.75, 3, and 3.25 level, this industry was able to make more money due to the extra value of relative to the last 15 years of the noninterest-bearing deposits in the consumer businesses and the small business in the corporate -- commercial business and wealth management business. So we feel good about positioning. We feel good about our deposit makeup, which is driven by core operating activity, the primary household and the consumer side the operating accounts and the businesses, the small businesses and even the wealth management.

所以這會安定下來，但你是對的——而且你已經在這個行業工作了很長時間。所以如果你回想一下，當聯準會的基金利率維持在2.75、3和3.25的水平時，這個產業能夠賺到更多的錢，因為相對於過去15年的無息利率來說，有額外的價值消費業務中的存款和企業中的小型業務—商業業務和財富管理業務。所以我們對定位感覺良好。我們對我們的存款組成感到滿意，這是由核心經營活動、主要家庭和消費者方面、經營帳戶和企業、小型企業甚至財富管理所推動的。

So you should see more -- you will see more value. I'm confident and that's what we're looking forward to as the rate structure settles in. And so the key to your point, is not the path of '25 of whether the cuts come in one quarter or another quarter. The key that I think is different is the blue-chip economists, your economists, I'm sure and our economists they all predict that we'll end up with a terminal rate at a 3% level as opposed to the past cycles where we didn't ever get there, and rates were starting to be cut at the end '19.

所以你應該看到更多——你會看到更多的價值。我很有信心，這就是我們在利率結構確定後所期待的。我認為不同的關鍵是藍籌經濟學家、你們的經濟學家和我們的經濟學家，他們都預測我們最終的利率將達到 3% 的水平，而不是過去的周期。 ，並且在19 年底開始降低利率。

That was super helpful, guys. Thank you.

夥計們，這非常有幫助。謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

Thank you. I apologize for missing that earlier queue. (multiple speakers) Alastair, you touched on the Basel in one of your comments regarding how your good position from your capital standpoint from the original proposal. Can you give us any color on what you guys have seen from that presentation that Vice Chair (inaudible) gave earlier in the quarter, what your views are, where you might come in. I think they said there was an average increase of capital for the group of about 9% and how you might stack up against that?

謝謝。我很抱歉錯過了之前的隊列。 （多名發言者）阿拉斯泰爾，您在一篇評論中談到了巴塞爾協議，該評論涉及您從資本角度與原始提案的良好立場。您能否向我們介紹一下你們從副主席（聽不清楚）在本季早些時候發表的演講中看到的內容，您的觀點是什麼，您可能會參與其中。了大約 9% 的群體，你如何與這個群體競爭？

Yeah. I'm not sure we have enough detail, Gerard, to give you a specific at this point. When the reproposal comes out, what we're told is it will not only be about it repropose the whole entire picture, including the changes outlined by Chair (inaudible), but you could take up for granted that, that was more favorable than the original proposal. So therefore, we'll benefit from it. And once we see something that's a little more detail, we might be able to give you a better estimate, but it's favorable to us.

是的。傑拉德，我不確定我們現在是否有足夠的細節來向您提供具體資訊。當重新提案出來時，我們被告知它不僅會重新提出整個情況，包括主席概述的更改（聽不清），而且您可以理所當然地認為，這比提案更有利原來的提案。因此，我們將從中受益。一旦我們看到更詳細的信息，我們也許能夠給您一個更好的估計，但這對我們有利。

I see. And Brian, do you think that could step up your activity of returning more capital as it comes in better than expected, you would take that as an opportunity maybe to return more capital to shareholders?

我懂了。布萊恩，你認為這會加強你返還更多資本的活動，因為它的回報比預期要好，你會以此為機會向股東返還更多資本嗎？

In the end of the day, we have excess capital based on the estimates of the old one. So yes, it would at the margin. But remember that at the end of the day, Gerard, we are sending capital back to shareholders because of the fact that the franchise generates activity without using a ton of capital and grows its loans, in deposits, the earnings, et cetera. So we will continue to be discipline with the capital and the capital return, and we'll continue to return more of it if more is available, we're sitting with a fair amount of excess over the current set of rules. And if a new set of rules are more favorable than the original proposal, that would set us up better, no question.

歸根結底，根據舊的估計，我們有多餘的資本。所以是的，它會處於邊緣狀態。但請記住，傑拉德，歸根結底，我們會將資本返還給股東，因為特許經營權在不使用大量資本的情況下就能產生活動，並增加貸款、存款、收入等。因此，我們將繼續遵守資本和資本回報的紀律，如果有更多可用的資本，我們將繼續回報更多的資本，我們目前的規則有相當多的超額。如果一套新的規則比原來的提案更有利，毫無疑問，這將使我們的處境更好。

Great. And then just as a follow-up, you guys have been building out your, obviously, branch banking system throughout the country in markets in which don't have a big presence. Can you just give us an update on how that is progressing? And what are you seeing that makes you -- because you've got great consumer numbers, you got great read on your customers. What really makes you guys excited that this is really the way to go, a combination of the digital and these branches?

偉大的。然後，作為後續行動，你們顯然一直在全國範圍內沒有大量業務的市場上建立分行銀行系統。您能否向我們介紹一下進展？你所看到的是什麼讓你——因為你擁有大量的消費者，你對你的客戶有很好的了解。是什麼真正讓你們感到興奮，因為這確實是數位化和這些分支的結合的發展之路？

I think if we look at markets, we just celebrated the 10 years in Denver from the first opening, which is the first -- among the first five markets we went after. And -- so if you look at this market, as I was look at the FDIC data and you kind of look at the last couple of years, it's kind of chopped up because of the stimulus and everything, but you see continued progress by us in all these markets, moving from nowhere to into the tenth and seventh and eighth, and we keep building that out. What that does is, we believe in high touch, high tech across all individuals and even small businesses and even a little bit in the middle market. And what we mean by that is for even multi customers, there are times when they need to utilize a branch. And if you have no branch in Denver or Columbus or Indianapolis or Minneapolis or et cetera, it's a little hard for them to get the full experience.

我認為，如果我們看看市場，我們剛剛慶祝了丹佛開業十週年，這是我們關注的前五個市場中的第一個。所以，如果你看看這個市場，就像我查看 FDIC 數據一樣，你看看過去幾年，由於刺激措施和其他因素，它有點被砍伐，但你會看到我們不斷取得進展在所有這些市場中，從無到有進入第十、第七和第八，而我們不斷擴大這個市場。這樣做的目的是，我們相信所有個人、甚至小型企業、甚至中間市場的高接觸、高科技。我們的意思是，即使是多個客戶，有時他們也需要使用分公司。如果你在丹佛、哥倫布、印第安納波利斯、明尼阿波利斯等地沒有分支機構，他們就很難獲得完整的體驗。

So we've done that. Now as we think about it, we had extreme discipline. We're going after this to build out markets to a level we feel comfortable we have the market covered. And so instead of putting one in every place, we're trying to build out a network in a place like Columbus, where I think we have 15, 20, branches now. And that allows us to build the business.

所以我們已經做到了。現在想想，我們有嚴格的紀律。我們正在努力將市場擴大到我們認為能夠覆蓋市場的水平。因此，我們不是在每個地方都設立一個分支機構，而是嘗試在像哥倫布這樣的地方建立一個網絡，我認為我們現在在那裡有 15 個、20 個分支機構。這使我們能夠開展業務。

We already have a major Merrill presence there. We already had commercial big presence there. This allows us to build it underneath it. And so that's why you're seeing our deposits in those branches push past $100 per branch, which is different than we see and others doing it because of the density and the capacity and the digital and the prior customer base for lack a better term that we now can get more from. So the team did a good job.

我們已經在那裡擁有了美​​林的主要業務。我們已經在那裡擁有了巨大的商業影響力。這允許我們在它下面構建它。這就是為什麼你會看到我們在這些分行的存款超過每分行 100 美元，這與我們看到的和其他人所做的不同，因為密度、容量、數字化和先前的客戶群缺乏更好的術語我們現在可以從中獲得更多。所以團隊做得很好。

We expect you have to go down those paths. But at the end of the day, we're trying to get coverage in the top markets across the country so that we cover the American population in an efficient and effective way. And it's -- the truth of the matter is even though we're 54% sales across all the businesses in consumer, all different types of products, a lot of the checking sales only digital about in 30s as opposed to the 50s, which means people still like to walk in a branch and start a relationship, and that's why we're there.

我們希望您必須沿著這些道路走下去。但歸根結底，我們正在努力覆蓋全國的頂級市場，以便我們以高效且有效的方式覆蓋美國人口。事實是，儘管我們所有業務的 54% 銷售額來自消費者、所有不同類型的產品，但許多檢查銷售額僅在 30 多歲而不是 50 多歲的數字，這意味著人們仍然喜歡漫步在樹枝上並開始建立關係，這就是我們在那裡的原因。

Very good. Appreciate the colors always. Thank you.

非常好。始終欣賞顏色。謝謝。

And this does conclude today's Q&A. I would like to return the call to Brian Moynihan for closing comments.

今天的問答到此結束。我想回覆布萊恩·莫伊尼漢 (Brian Moynihan) 以徵求結束意見。

I thank all of you for joining us. We operate well in the quarter, delivering $6.9 billion of earnings after tax, $0.81 a share. As we told you, we continue to seek good health among -- in asset quality overall and good spending behavior by the consumers consistent with a solid economy. We told you a couple of things in the past that NII would hit an inflection point in the second quarter. It's done that.

我感謝大家加入我們。我們本季營運良好，實現稅後收益 69 億美元，每股收益 0.81 美元。正如我們告訴您的那樣，我們將繼續尋求整體資產品質的良好健康以及消費者良好的消費行為與穩健的經濟相一致。我們過去告訴過您一些事情，NII 將在第二季度遇到轉折點。就這麼辦了

We told you that we continue to see the ability to drive operating leverage in the future. Now we can see it as NII starts to pick up, and that will drive the efficiency ratio and operating leverage. We continue to grow organically across the board, and we continue to return capital to you as we did $3.5 billion this quarter. So thank you and look forward to talking next quarter.

我們告訴過您，我們繼續看到未來提高營運槓桿的能力。現在我們可以看到，隨著NII開始回升，這將推動效率比和營運槓桿。我們繼續全面有機成長，並繼續向您返還資本，本季我們返還了 35 億美元。謝謝您，並期待下個季度的討論。

This does conclude today's Bank of America earnings announcement. You may now disconnect your lines, and everyone, have a great day.

今天的美國銀行收益公告到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了，祝大家有個愉快的一天。