美國銀行 (BAC) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Bank of America earnings announcement. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call may be recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎收看美國銀行財報。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話可能會被錄音。 （操作員說明）

It is my pleasure to turn the conference over to Lee McEntire of Bank of America.

我很高興將會議交給美國銀行的 Lee McEntire。

Good morning. Thank you, Leo. Welcome, and thank you for joining the call to review our first quarter results. Our earnings release documents are available on the Investor Relations section of the bankofamerica.com website, and that includes the earnings presentation that we will be referring to during the call. I trust that everyone's had a chance to review the documents.

早安.謝謝你，利奧。歡迎並感謝您參加電話會議以審查我們第一季的業績。我們的收益發布文件可在bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分獲取，其中包括我們將在電話會議期間提及的收益演示。我相信每個人都有機會審閱這些文件。

I'm going to first turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Moynihan, for some opening comments before Alastair Borthwick, our CFO, discusses the details of the quarter.

在我們的財務長 Alastair Borthwick 討論本季的細節之前，我將首先將電話轉給我們的執行長 Brian Moynihan，徵求一些開場白。

Before they begin, let me just remind you, we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause our actual results to materially differ from expectations are detailed in our earnings materials, our SEC filings that are available on our website. Information about non-GAAP financial measures, including the reconciliations to U.S. GAAP, can also be found in our earnings materials that are available on the website.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，我們可能會在電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述並參考非公認會計準則財務指標。前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致我們的實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素在我們的盈利材料以及我們網站上提供的 SEC 文件中進行了詳細說明。有關非公認會計原則財務指標的信息，包括與美國公認會計原則的調節，也可以在我們網站上提供的收益資料中找到。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to you, Brian. Thanks.

那麼，我會把電話轉給你，布萊恩。謝謝。

Thank you, Lee, and good morning to all of you, and thank you for joining us. I am starting on Slide 2 of the earnings presentation. We once again delivered a strong set of results in quarter 1. We reported net income of $6.7 billion after tax and EPS of $0.76. This included the additional expense accrual for the industry's special assessment by the FDIC to recover losses from the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. This lowered our quarter 1 EPS by $0.07. Excluding net expense, net income was $7.2 billion and EPS was $0.83 per share in quarter 1.

謝謝你，李，大家早安，謝謝你加入我們。我從收益簡報的幻燈片 2 開始。我們在第一季再次取得了強勁的業績。其中包括 FDIC 為彌補矽谷銀行和 Signature Bank 倒閉損失而進行的行業特別評估的額外應計費用。這使我們的第一季 EPS 降低了 0.07 美元。不計淨費用，第一季淨利為 72 億美元，每股收益為 0.83 美元。

Alastair is going to walk you through the details of the quarter momentarily. But first, let me give you a few thoughts on our performance. We delivered good improvement in our fee-based business, driven both by continued organic growth and good market conditions. Investment banking saw a nice rebound this quarter. We delivered nearly $1.6 billion in investment banking fees and grew 35% from the first quarter 2023. Matthew Koder and the team have done a great job delivering market share growth.

阿拉斯泰爾將立即向您介紹本季度的詳細資訊。但首先，讓我談談我們的表現的一些想法。在持續的有機成長和良好的市場條件的推動下，我們的收費業務取得了良好的改善。投資銀行業務本季出現良好反彈。我們交付了近 16 億美元的投資銀行費用，較 2023 年第一季成長了 35%。

In addition, our results reflect the benefits of investments beta, our middle-market investment banking teams and dual-coverage teams. Matthew has utilized his [benefit] and power wisely to grow our middle-market team from 15 bankers in 2018 across a dozen cities to more than 200 bankers in twice as many cities today. Both groups work with our commercial bankers and wealth management advisers in those cities to deliver for our clients.

此外，我們的結果反映了投資貝塔、我們的中間市場投資銀行團隊和雙重覆蓋團隊的好處。馬修明智地利用了他的[利益]和權力，將我們的中端市場團隊從 2018 年覆蓋十幾個城市的 15 名銀行家發展到如今覆蓋兩倍城市的 200 多名銀行家。這兩個團隊都與我們在這些城市的商業銀行家和財富管理顧問合作，為我們的客戶提供服務。

Investment in brokerage services revenue across Merrill and the Private Bank grew 11% year-over-year in quarter 1 to nearly $3.6 billion. Continued investments in our adviser training programs and digital delivery for our clients as well as positive market helped us deliver strong revenue. Asset under management flows were $25 billion in the quarter.

第一季度，美林和私人銀行的經紀服務收入投資年增 11%，達到近 36 億美元。對顧問培訓計劃和客戶數位化交付的持續投資以及積極的市場幫助我們實現了強勁的收入。本季管理資產流量為 250 億美元。

Sales and trading, excluding DVA, delivered its eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue improvement. At $5.2 billion, this is the highest first quarter result in over a decade. We have allocated more balance sheet invested in talent to build on our strengths for the last 5 years in this business. Those investments, plus the intensity of the teams under Jimmy DeMare's leadership has resulted in good momentum and market share improvement.

銷售和交易（不包括 DVA）收入連續第八個季度同比增長。 52 億美元，這是十多年來第一季的最高業績。我們在資產負債表上分配了更多的人才投資，以增強我們過去 5 年在該業務中的優勢。這些投資，加上 Jimmy DeMare 領導下的團隊的強度，帶來了良好的勢頭和市場份額的提高。

From a balance sheet perspective, we entered the quarter expecting modest loss in loan growth and a decline in deposits, those were our expectations. What we actually delivered was growth in any deposits of more than $20 billion. Ending loans were down modestly due to the expected credit card seasonality. Otherwise, loans are pretty stable. This balance sheet performance, along with our continued pricing discipline, allowed us to deliver better-than-expected NII performance. We told you last quarter that we expected NII to decline from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, a decline about $100 million to $200 million. We actually reported today NII of $14.2 billion. That was $100 million higher than quarter 4, exceeding our guidance.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們進入本季時預計貸款成長將出現小幅損失，存款將下降，這是我們的預期。我們實際實現的是超過 200 億美元的存款成長。由於預期的信用卡季節性，期末貸款小幅下降。除此之外，貸款相當穩定。這種資產負債表表現，加上我們持續的定價紀律，使我們能夠提供好於預期的國家資訊基礎設施表現。我們上個季度告訴您，我們預計 NII 從 2023 年第四季到 2024 年第一季將下降，下降約 1 億至 2 億美元。我們今天實際上報告的 NII 為 142 億美元。這比第四季高出 1 億美元，超出了我們的指導。

We continue to deliver strong expense management. Year-over-year expenses, adjusted for the FDIC assessment, was up a little less than 2%. That compares to a 4%-plus inflation rate. We also continue to invest in our company while managing those expenses. We had several categories of stronger fee-based revenue in the first quarter this year. This drove higher formulaic compensation and processing costs of the increased activity.

我們繼續提供強而有力的費用管理。根據 FDIC 評估調整後的年比支出增加略低於 2%。相比之下，通貨膨脹率高達 4% 以上。我們還在管理這些費用的同時繼續投資我們的公司。今年第一季度，我們的幾類收費收入表現強勁。這導致活動增加的公式補償和處理成本更高。

Fees and commissions were up 10% year-over-year. We are happy to pay for that revenue and deliver warnings to the bottom line because of it. So how did we do all that and hold expenses under the inflation rate? Well, we remain focused on 3 primary drivers of Bank of America. First, our operational excellence platform continues to deliver and improve processes. These savings from that growth helped fund the future growth in the company and lower the risk. Second, we managed head count as we eliminated work. Recall, we noted the expectation in January of last year that our head count will be down throughout the year. Our head count at the end of first quarter 2024 is down by more than 4,700 people from the first quarter 2023. It declined 650 people just for the end of 2023.

費用及佣金較去年同期成長10%。我們很樂意支付這些收入，並因此對利潤發出警告。那麼我們是如何做到這一切並將開支控制在通貨膨脹率之下的呢？嗯，我們仍然關注美國銀行的 3 個主要驅動因素。首先，我們的卓越營運平台不斷交付和改進流程。成長帶來的節省有助於為公司未來的成長提供資金並降低風險。其次，我們在減少工作的同時管理了員工數量。回想一下，我們在去年一月就曾預計全年員工人數將會減少。截至 2024 年第一季末，我們的員工人數比 2023 年第一季減少了 4,700 多人。

The digitization activity is also driving ongoing expense cost savings, customer retention and market share improvement, driving across all 3 factors. It also then supports the ever-increasing volumes of client activity with little increased cost. I would highlight our continued capital strength with common equity Tier 1 capital of $197 billion. That amount of capital is $31 billion over the current regulatory minimums for our company. That capital has allowed us to both support our clients and returned $4.4 billion to shareholders this quarter and share repurchases and dividends.

數位化活動也推動了持續的費用成本節約、客戶保留和市場份額的提高，從而推動了這三個因素。它還可以在幾乎不增加成本的情況下支援不斷增加的客戶活動量。我想強調我們持續的資本實力，普通股一級資本為 1,970 億美元。該資本金額比我們公司目前監管最低限額高出 310 億美元。這些資本使我們能夠支持我們的客戶，並在本季度向股東返還 44 億美元，並進行股票回購和股息。

Let me highlight a few points on organic growth before I pass over to Alastair. Now I'm turning to Slide 3. You can see Slide 3, the highlights of the quarter 1 success for organic activity across the businesses. We continue to invest and enhance our digital platforms. We provide our customers with convenient and secure banking experiences. By leveraging our technology and continuous investment in that technology and putting customers at the center of everything we do, we have successfully deepened our relationships and expanded our customer base across all our businesses.

在我轉向阿拉斯泰爾之前，讓我先強調一下有關有機成長的幾點。現在我轉向幻燈片 3。我們繼續投資和增強我們的數位平台。我們為客戶提供便利、安全的銀行體驗。透過利用我們的技術以及對該技術的持續投資，並將客戶置於我們所做的一切的中心，我們成功地加深了我們的關係，並擴大了我們所有業務的客戶群。

In consumer, we added 245,000 net new checking accounts this quarter. This completes 21 straight quarters of net additions. Dean Athanasia, Aron Levine and Holly O'Neill helped drive that business for us and continue to perform well, driving strong performance across our consumer franchise. These checking balances continue to drive the performance of our consumer deposits. These checking additions are important for many other reasons. On average, 68% of our deposit balances have been with us for more than 10 years. 92% of the customer checking accounts are primary checking accounts in the household, meaning that they're the core operating account for the household for their financial lives. So when we onboard a client, we start a long-term valuable relationship. About 60% of our checking accounts customers use a debit card, and in average they do about 400 transactions per year on that card.

在消費者方面，本季我們淨新增了 245,000 個支票帳戶。這完成了連續 21 個季度的淨增長。 Dean Athanasia、Aron Levine 和 Holly O'Neill 幫助我們推動了這項業務，並繼續表現出色，推動了我們整個消費者特許經營業務的強勁表現。這些支票餘額繼續推動我們消費者存款的表現。由於許多其他原因，這些檢查添加也很重要。平均而言，我們 68% 的存款餘額已存在 10 年以上。 92% 的客戶支票帳戶是家庭中的主要支票帳戶，這意味著它們是家庭財務生活的核心營運帳戶。因此，當我們與客戶合作時，我們就開始了一種長期的、有價值的關係。我們約 60% 的支票帳戶客戶使用金融卡，平均每年使用該卡進行約 400 筆交易。

The new checking accounts have traditionally opened savings accounts, about 25% of the time within a few months of opening that checking account. And opening a new checking account on average brings about $4,000 in balances below our averages. But that continues to grow, and within a year, it's 2x that amount. Likewise, when we open a new savings account, it on average brings about $7,000 in balances. This also deepened it by about 2x during the year.

傳統上，新的支票帳戶開設了儲蓄帳戶，大約 25% 的時間是在開設支票帳戶後的幾個月內完成的。開設新的支票帳戶平均會帶來比平均低約 4,000 美元的餘額。但這一數字仍在持續成長，一年之內，這個數字就增加了兩倍。同樣，當我們開設一個新的儲蓄帳戶時，平均會帶來約 7,000 美元的餘額。這也在這一年加深了約 2 倍。

Investment relationships and credit card account openings continue to be strong in the first quarter as well. And while we believe some of these statistics are best-in-class, rest assured, there are plenty of opportunities for further growth in our franchise and our company. As we think about our Global Wealth team led by Eric Schimpf, Lindsay Hans and Katy Knox, that team added 7,300 net new wealth relationships at the Merrill and the Private Bank. Our advisers opened 29,000 new bank accounts in the quarter with our customers deepening the relationships. More than 60% are investing clients in Merrill, and 90% of our private banking clients now have a core banking relationship with us. In addition, across our wealth spectrum, we saw $60 billion in total flows over the last year. As you can see on the slide, we now manage more than $5.6 trillion in total client balances across loans, deposits and investments in consumer and wealth management.

第一季的投資關係和信用卡開戶也持續強勁。雖然我們相信其中一些統計數據是一流的，但請放心，我們的特許經營權和公司還有很多進一步發展的機會。當我們想到由 Eric Sc​​hmpf、Lindsay Hans 和 Katy Knox 領導的全球財富團隊時，該團隊在美林和私人銀行淨新增了 7,300 個財富關係。我們的顧問在本季度開設了 29,000 個新銀行帳戶，與客戶加深了關係。超過 60% 的客戶是美林的投資客戶，而我們 90% 的私人銀行客戶現在與我們建立了核心銀行業務關係。此外，在我們的財富範圍內，去年的總流量為 600 億美元。正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們現在管理超過 5.6 兆美元的客戶餘額，涵蓋貸款、存款以及消費者和財富管理領域的投資。

When we move to Global Banking, we added more new relationships in this quarter than we did in last year's first quarter. We also increased the number of solutions per relationship with preexisting clients. Just like in our consumer business, we have seen good growth in customers seeking the benefits of both our physical and our online capabilities and our talent, and also the care of our talented relationship managers who provide financing solutions and advice for our clients with global needs.

當我們轉向全球銀行業務時，我們在本季增加了比去年第一季更多的新關係。我們也增加了與現有客戶建立關係的解決方案數量。就像我們的消費者業務一樣，我們看到越來越多的客戶尋求我們的實體和線上能力以及我們的人才的好處，以及我們才華橫溢的客戶關係經理的關懷，他們為具有全球需求的客戶提供融資解決方案和建議。

A couple of other points I'd make on our digital success. Erica, our virtual banking assistant, reached a key milestone of more than 2 billion interactions since its introduction about 6 years ago. It took 4 years to reach 1 billion interactions. It took just 18 months to reach the second billion. In August, we extended Erica's reach and launched Erica in our Global Treasury Services business and CashPro. Erica, as a result, 43% of the CashPro chat inquiries automatedly, demonstrating more and more clients are able to self-solve. This is a great example of best practices being shared across the scale of our company.

關於我們的數位化成功，我還想談幾點其他觀點。我們的虛擬銀行助理 Erica 自大約 6 年前推出以來，已經實現了超過 20 億次互動的重要里程碑。花了4年才達到10億次互動。只花了18個月就達到了第二個10億。 8 月，我們擴大了 Erica 的覆蓋範圍，並將 Erica 引入了我們的全球財務服務業務和 CashPro。 Erica 表示，43% 的 CashPro 聊天查詢都是自動完成的，這表明越來越多的客戶能夠自行解決。這是我們公司範圍內共享最佳實踐的一個很好的例子。

Second, as an example of our digital success, Zelle continues to grow. It wasn't long ago that we noted that the number of Zelle transactions in a quarter had surpassed the numbers of checks written. Shortly after that, Zelle transactions reached 2x the number of checks written. This quarter, Zelle transactions has now passed the combined number of checks written, plus the amount of cash withdrawals from tellers and from ATMs. That is a rapid adoption and represents continued cost savings and convenience and security for the customers. These stats and others are included in our quarterly (inaudible) for our digital banking progress. That's included in Slides 20, 22 and 24. I encourage you to read them. They show our market-leading efforts, representing billions of dollars of our investment over the years, and we are continuing to drive growth with expense growth under control. This solid earnings results achieved this quarter are testament to the dedication and talent of our 212,000 people who work here and deliver for our customers every day. I thank them for another great quarter.

其次，作為我們數位化成功的一個例子，Zelle 不斷發展。不久前，我們注意到一個季度的 Zelle 交易數量超過了開立的支票數量。此後不久，Zelle 交易量達到了所寫支票數量的 2 倍。本季度，Zelle 交易量現已超過開出支票的總數量，加上櫃員和 ATM 機提取的現金金額。這是一種快速的採用，代表著持續的成本節約以及為客戶帶來的便利和安全。這些統計數據和其他統計數據包含在我們的數位銀行進度季度報告中（聽不清楚）。這些內容包含在幻燈片 20、22 和 24 中。它們展示了我們領先市場的努力，代表了我們多年來數十億美元的投資，並且我們將繼續推動成長，控制費用成長。本季取得的穩健獲利結果證明了我們 212,000 名每天在這裡工作並為客戶提供服務的員工的奉獻精神和才華。我感謝他們又一個偉大的季度。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Alastair.

有了這個，我會把它交給阿拉斯泰爾。

Thank you, Brian. And I'm going to start on Slide 4 of the earnings presentation. So Brian covered much of the income statement highlights, and he noted the difference in our reported results and the results adjusted for the FDIC assessment. So I'm not going to repeat that. I'd just add that we delivered strong returns. On a reported basis, our return on average assets was 83 basis points and return on tangible common equity was 12.7%. And when adjusted for the FDIC assessment, our efficiency ratio was 64%, ROA at 89 basis points and ROTCE at 14%.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我將從收益簡報的第四張投影片開始。因此，布萊恩涵蓋了損益表的大部分要點，他指出了我們報告的結果與根據 FDIC 評估調整後的結果之間的差異。所以我不會重複這一點。我想補充一點，我們帶來了豐厚的回報。根據報告，我們的平均資產報酬率為 83 個基點，有形普通股報酬率為 12.7%。根據 FDIC 評估進行調整後，我們的效率率為 64%，ROA 為 89 個基點，ROTCE 為 14%。

So let's move to the balance sheet on Slide 5, where we ended the quarter at $3.27 trillion of total assets, up $94 billion from the fourth quarter. And the bulk of that increase was in Global Markets to support seasonally elevated levels of client activity. Outside of the Global Markets activity, we'd highlight both the $23 billion growth in deposits and the $20 billion decline in cash levels. So with that increase in liquidity, you'll also note that debt securities increased $39 billion, which included an $8 billion decline in hold-to-maturity securities and a $47 billion increase in AFS securities. And those are mostly hedged U.S. treasuries added with yields effectively at cash rates.

那麼，讓我們來看看投影片 5 上的資產負債表，本季結束時我們的總資產為 3.27 兆美元，比第四季增加了 940 億美元。其中大部分成長來自全球市場，以支持季節性增加的客戶活動水準。除了全球市場活動之外，我們還專注於存款成長 230 億美元和現金水準下降 200 億美元。因此，隨著流動性的增加，您還會注意到債務證券增加了 390 億美元，其中持有至到期證券減少了 80 億美元，而 AFS 證券增加了 470 億美元。這些大多是對沖的美國國債，並以現金利率有效增加了收益率。

At $313 billion, our absolute cash levels remain higher than required. Liquidity remained strong with $909 billion of global liquidity sources, and that's up $12 billion from the fourth quarter and remains $333 billion above our pre-pandemic fourth quarter '19 level. Shareholders' equity increased $1.9 billion from the fourth quarter earnings, as they were only partially offset by capital distributed to shareholders. And AOCI was little changed in the quarter.

我們的絕對現金水準為 3,130 億美元，仍高於所需水準。流動性依然強勁，全球流動性來源達 9,090 億美元，比第四季增加了 120 億美元，仍比 19 年第四季大流行前的水準高出 3,330 億美元。股東權益較第四季度收益增加了 19 億美元，但僅部分被分配給股東的資本所抵消。 AOCI 本季變化不大。

During the quarter, we paid out $1.9 billion in common dividends and we bought back $2.5 billion in shares, which more than offset our employee awards. As part of those share awards in the first quarter, we announced our seventh consecutive year of sharing success compensation awards, covering more than 95% of our associates and further aligning their interest with shareholders. Tangible book value per share of $24.79 is up 9% year-over-year.

本季度，我們支付了 19 億美元的普通股息，並回購了 25 億美元的股票，這遠遠抵消了我們的員工獎勵。作為第一季股票獎勵的一部分，我們宣布連續第七年分享成功薪酬獎勵，涵蓋我們超過 95% 的員工，進一步使他們與股東的利益保持一致。每股有形帳面價值為 24.79 美元，年增 9%。

Looking at regulatory capital, our CET1 level improved to $197 billion from December 31, and the CET1 ratio was stable at 11.8% and remained well above our current 10% requirement. We also remain quite well positioned against the current proposed capital rules, as our CET1 level is also above the 10% requirement even when we include estimated RWA inflation from those new proposed rules. Risk-weighted assets increased modestly, driven by client activity in Global Markets. And our supplemental leverage ratio was 6% compared to a minimum requirement of 5%, which leaves capacity for balance sheet growth. And at $475 billion of total loss-absorbing capital, our TLAC ratio remains comfortably above our requirements.

從監理資本來看，我們的CET1水準從12月31日起提高到1,970億美元，CET1比率穩定在11.8%，仍遠高於我們目前10%的要求。相對於目前擬議的資本規則，我們仍然處於相當有利的地位，因為即使我們考慮了這些新擬議規則中估計的 RWA 通貨膨脹，我們的 CET1 水平也高於 10% 的要求。在全球市場客戶活動的推動下，風險加權資產小幅成長。我們的補充槓桿率為 6%，而最低要求為 5%，這為資產負債表成長留下了空間。損失吸收資本總額為 4,750 億美元，我們的 TLAC 比率仍然遠高於我們的要求。

Let's turn our balance sheet focus to loans by looking at the average balances on Slide 6. Average loans in the first quarter of $1.048 trillion were flat compared to the fourth quarter, and they improved 1% year-over-year as solid credit card growth was partially offset by declines in securities-based lending. Commercial loans grew modestly year-over-year. We experienced modest improvement in revolver utilization and commercial lending in the first quarter, and that's being offset for the most part by paydowns as larger client financing solutions are being met through capital markets access. And lastly on a positive note, loan spreads continued to widen.

讓我們將資產負債表的重點轉向貸款，看看幻燈片6 上的平均餘額。了1%部分被證券貸款的下降所抵銷。商業貸款較去年小幅成長。第一季度，我們的循環利用和商業貸款略有改善，但隨著更大的客戶融資解決方案透過資本市場准入得到滿足，這在很大程度上被還款所抵消。最後一個積極的方面是，貸款利差繼續擴大。

Moving to deposits. We'll stay focused on averages on Slide 7. And relative to pre-pandemic Q4 2019, average deposits are still up 35%. Every line of business remains well above their pre-pandemic levels, and consumer is up 32% with checking up 38%, driven by net new checking accounts added, as Brian noted earlier. Linked-quarter total average deposits remained steady at more than $1.9 trillion. The total rate paid on consumer deposits in the quarter was 55 basis points. And while the rate increased 9 basis points from the fourth quarter, the pace of increases continues to slow. The mix of low rate and high-quality transactional accounts keeps the rate paid low. Wealth Management and Global Banking also saw a slowdown in the increases in their rate paid and slowdown in the rotation out of noninterest-bearing accounts in the first quarter.

轉向存款。我們將繼續關注幻燈片 7 上的平均值。正如布萊恩早些時候指出的那樣，在淨新增支票帳戶的推動下，各業務領域仍遠高於大流行前的水平，消費者增長了 32%，支票增長了 38%。環比平均存款總額穩定在 1.9 兆美元以上。本季消費者存款支付的總利率為 55 個基點。儘管利率較第四季上升了 9 個基點，但成長速度仍持續放緩。低利率和高品質交易帳戶的結合使支付率保持在較低水平。第一季度，財富管理和全球銀行業務的支付利率增幅也放緩，無息帳戶的輪替也有所放緩。

Focusing for a moment on ending deposits and movement from the fourth quarter. This quarter, we delivered good deposit growth. Total deposits grew $23 billion, and they're now $100 billion above their trough in mid-May of 2023. Consumer Banking deposits saw growth in both consumer interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing. Global Banking continued their more normal pattern of deposits seen for the past 5 quarters and up more than $30 billion over the last year. Deposit growth exceeded loan growth for the third straight quarter and our excess of deposits over loans expanded to $897 billion, and that's nearly 2x the $450 billion we had pre-pandemic. You can see that on the upper left-hand side of Slide 8.

我們暫時關注第四季的存款結束和流動情況。本季度，我們實現了良好的存款成長。存款總額增加了 230 億美元，目前比 2023 年 5 月中旬的低點高出 1,000 億美元。全球銀行業持續維持過去 5 個季度較為正常的存款模式，比去年增加了 300 億美元以上。存款成長連續第三個季度超過貸款成長，存款與貸款的盈餘擴大至 8,970 億美元，幾乎是疫情前 4,500 億美元的兩倍。您可以在投影片 8 的左上角看到這一點。

We continue to have a mix of cash available-for-sale securities and held-to-maturity securities. And this quarter, our combination of cash and AFS is now 52% of the total $1.2 trillion noted on this page. You'll also notice the continued change in mix of the shorter-term portfolio, as we again lowered cash and increased AFS securities that are mostly hedged and have similar yields to the cash. Note also the hold-to-maturity book continues to decline from paydowns. In total, the hold-to-maturity book is now down $96 billion from its peak, and it consists of about $122 billion in treasuries and about $458 billion in mortgage-backed securities, along with $7 billion of other securities. Lastly, the blended cash and securities yield of 360 basis points continued to rise and remained about 168 basis points above the rate we pay for deposits. The replacement of lower-earning assets into higher-yielding assets continues to provide an ongoing benefit to NII.

我們繼續持有可供出售現金證券及持有至到期證券的組合。本季度，我們的現金和 AFS 組合目前佔本頁所示 1.2 兆美元總額的 52%。您還會注意到短期投資組合的持續變化，因為我們再次降低了現金並增加了 AFS 證券，這些證券大多是對沖的且與現金的收益率相似。另請注意，持有至到期帳簿因還款額而持續下降。總體而言，持有至到期帳面目前較高峰減少了 960 億美元，其中包括約 1,220 億美元的國債和約 4,580 億美元的抵押貸款支持證券，以及 70 億美元的其他證券。最後，360 個基點的混合現金和證券收益率持續上升，仍比我們支付的存款利率高出約 168 個基點。將低收益資產替換為高收益資產繼續為國家資訊基礎設施帶來持續的好處。

Let's turn our focus to NII performance using Slide 9, where you can see on a fully tax equivalent basis, NII was $14.2 billion. Good deposit growth provided a strong start to the year for NII. And as Brian noted, NII of $14.2 billion increased by $100 million from the fourth quarter. Now that compares to our expectation and guidance of a decline of $100 million to $200 million, and that would have resulted in NII this quarter of $13.9 billion or $14 billion. So we did quite a bit better than we had originally expected. The improvement in quarterly NII in Q1 compared to Q4 included the benefits of higher-yielding assets and improvement in Global Markets NII, partially offset by higher deposit costs and 1 less day in Q1 than Q4 '23. Deposit balance activity more generally also aided in the beat versus our expectations.

讓我們使用投影片 9 將注意力轉向 NII 績效，您可以在其中看到在完全稅等值的基礎上，NII 為 142 億美元。良好的存款成長為 NII 提供了強勁的開局。正如 Brian 指出的，NII 為 142 億美元，比第四季增加了 1 億美元。相較之下，我們的預期和指引是減少 1 億至 2 億美元，這將導致本季的 NII 減少 139 億美元或 140 億美元。所以我們做得比我們最初預期的好很多。與第4 季相比，第一季季度NII 的改善包括收益較高資產的好處和全球市場NII 的改善，但部分被較高的存款成本和第一季比23 年第四季減少1 天所抵消。更普遍的存款餘額活動也有助於超出我們的預期。

As we look forward for Q2, we expect some modest impact of lower deposits in wealth management as clients make their seasonal income tax payments. And we expect Global Markets NII to decline mostly seasonally a little bit as well. So we expect second quarter NII could approach $14 billion on an FTE basis. And further, we continue to expect that Q2 will be the low point for NII, and we expect the back half of 2024 to grow. And compared to our guidance last quarter, we're obviously growing off a larger base of NII after having outperformed in the first quarter.

展望第二季度，我們預計，隨著客戶繳納季節性所得稅，財富管理存款減少會產生一定程度的影響。我們預期全球市場NII 也會出現季節性小幅下降。因此，我們預計第二季 NII 按 FTE 計算可能接近 140 億美元。此外，我們繼續預計第二季將是 NII 的低點，並預計 2024 年下半年將成長。與我們上季度的指導相比，在第一季表現出色之後，我們的 NII 基數顯然有所增長。

With regard to that forward view, let me just note a few other caveats. It includes our assumption that interest rates in the forward curve at the end of the quarter materialize. And at the end of the first quarter, there were still 3 cuts expected this year starting in June. Our forward view also includes an expectation of low single-digit loan growth and some moderate growth in deposits as we move into the back half of 2024. And given our recent deposit and loan performance, we continue to feel good about these assumptions. Turning to asset sensitivity and focused on a forward yield curve basis, our sensitivity to the plus and minus 100 basis point parallel shift in the forward curve at March 31 remains well balanced.

關於這個前瞻性觀點，讓我指出一些其他注意事項。它包括我們的假設，即遠期曲線中的利率在季度末實現。而第一季末，預計今年6月開始仍有3次裁員。我們的前瞻性觀點還包括，隨著我們進入 2024 年下半年，貸款將出現低個位數增長，存款將出現適度增長。談到資產敏感性，重點關注遠期殖利率曲線基礎，我們對 3 月 31 日遠期曲線正負 100 個基點平行移動的敏感度保持良好平衡。

Okay. Let's turn to expense. And we'll use Slide 10 for that discussion, where we reported $17.2 billion expense this quarter, including the FDIC assessment. Adjusted for the assessment, expenses were $16.5 billion, and the increase over the fourth quarter included a little more than $400 million in seasonal payroll tax expense as well as higher revenue-related costs and, to a lesser extent, annual merit increases and other annual awards like sharing success awards provided this quarter. $16.5 billion was just a little above our forecast for Q1, which we made last quarter, and the increase is driven by better-than-expected fee revenue across wealth management, investment banking and sales and trading. And as Brian said, that's a trade-off we're more than happy to make, bringing more earnings to the bottom line. And while expense is up almost 2% from last year, we simply remind you, inflation was up by more than 4%, and we've increased our investment and we're paying for the revenue growth. So we think it represents good work by our teams.

好的。讓我們轉向費用。我們將使用幻燈片 10 進行討論，其中我們報告了本季 172 億美元的支出，包括 FDIC 的評估。根據評估調整後，費用為165 億美元，第四季度的成長包括略多於4 億美元的季節性工資稅費用以及更高的收入相關成本，以及較小程度的年度績效成長和其他年度績效成長。 165 億美元僅略高於我們上季度對第一季的預測，這一增長是由財富管理、投資銀行以及銷售和交易方面好於預期的費用收入所推動的。正如布萊恩所說，這是我們非常樂意做出的權衡，為利潤帶來更多收益。雖然費用比去年增加了近 2%，但我們只是提醒您，通貨膨脹率上升了 4% 以上，我們增加了投資，並為收入成長付出了代價。所以我們認為這代表了我們團隊的出色工作。

As we look forward in Q2, we expect a decline from the Q1 level, as we typically see about 2/3 of the Q1 elevated payroll tax expense come back out. And the remainder of the year, expense is expected to trend down. Continued digital engagement, savings and operational excellence initiatives should help us offset other cost increases for people and technology through the back half of the year.

展望第二季度，我們預計會較第一季的水平有所下降，因為我們通常會看到第一季度增加的工資稅支出的約 2/3 被收回。今年剩餘時間裡，費用預計將呈現下降趨勢。持續的數位參與、節約和卓越營運措施應該有助於我們抵消今年下半年人員和技術方面的其他成本增加。

Turning to credit on Slide 11. Provision expense was $1.3 billion in the first quarter, and that included $179 million of reserve release due to a modestly improved macro environmental outlook, as the baseline consensus expectations improved from the fourth quarter. On a weighted basis, we remain reserved for an unemployment rate of nearly 5% by the end of 2025 compared to the most recent actual 3.8% rate. Net charge-offs of $1.5 billion increased $306 million from the fourth quarter, driven by continued credit card seasoning and commercial real estate office exposures, as swift revaluations from current appraisals and resolutions drove higher charge-offs. The net charge-off ratio was 58 basis points, a 13 basis point increase from the fourth quarter.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的信貸。在加權基礎上，我們仍預期 2025 年底失業率將接近 5%，而最近的實際失業率為 3.8%。淨沖銷額為 15 億美元，較第四季度增加了 3.06 億美元，因為信用卡持續老化和商業房地產辦公室風險敞口，當前評估和決議的迅速重估導致沖銷額增加。淨核銷率為58個基點，較第四季增加13個基點。

On Slide 12, we show you the credit quality metrics for both our consumer and commercial portfolios. Consumer net charge-offs increased $115 million versus the fourth quarter from the flow-through of higher late-stage credit card delinquencies. We included a credit card delinquency Slide #28 in our appendix. And we're encouraged by the trend of delinquencies because the late-stage increases slowed and early-stage delinquencies improved as well. And that leads us to believe we should begin to see consumer net charge-offs start to level out over the next quarter or so. All of this is still well within our risk appetite and our expectations, and it's consistent with the normalization of credit we've discussed with you in prior calls.

在投影片 12 上，我們向您展示了我們的消費者和商業投資組合的信用品質指標。由於後期信用卡拖欠率增加，消費者淨沖銷額較第四季增加了 1.15 億美元。我們在附錄中新增了信用卡拖欠投影片#28。我們對拖欠率的趨勢感到鼓舞，因為後期拖欠率成長放緩，早期拖欠率也有所改善。這讓我們相信，我們應該開始看到消費者淨沖銷在下個季度左右開始趨於穩定。所有這些仍然完全在我們的風險偏好和預期之內，並且與我們在先前的電話中與您討論的信貸正常化是一致的。

Commercial net charge-offs increased $191 million versus the fourth quarter, driven by commercial real estate losses and office exposures. And on office losses this quarter, we recorded charge-offs on 16 office loans: 4 were a result of sales activity, i.e., final resolution; 7 were from losses that we expect on exposures that are in the process of expected resolution in the course of the next 90 days; and the rest we took as a result of refreshed valuations. Using a continuous and thorough loan-by-loan analysis, and we're quick to recognize impacts in the commercial real estate office space through our risk ratings, and that's resulted in several downgrades in the last few quarters.

由於商業房地產損失和辦公大樓風險敞口，商業淨沖銷在第四季度增加了 1.91 億美元。關於本季的辦公室損失，我們記錄了 16 項辦公室貸款的沖銷：其中 4 項是銷售活動的結果，即最終決議； 7 是我們預計未來 90 天內正在解決的風險敞口所造成的損失；其餘的我們認為是估值更新的結果。透過持續、徹底的逐筆貸款分析，我們很快就透過風險評級認識到了對商業房地產辦公空間的影響，這導致了過去幾季的多次評級下調。

As a result of these quick actions and our downgrades in categorization, we've also refreshed the valuation of our reservable criticized properties, and we've taken appropriate reserves and charge-offs in the process. Roughly 1/3 of our office exposure is now categorized as reservable criticized. And importantly, the pace of the increase in reservable criticized exposures has slowed each quarter since the second quarter of last year. So we believe the losses on these office properties have been front-loaded and largely reserved. We expect the losses to move lower in the second quarter. And we expect a notable decline in the second half of the year when compared to the first half of this year, absent any material change in expected real estate prices. In the appendix on Slide 29, we've included a current view of our commercial real estate and office portfolio metrics, as we usually do.

由於這些快速行動和我們的分類降級，我們還刷新了可預訂的受批評房產的估值，並在此過程中採取了適當的準備金和沖銷。我們大約 1/3 的辦公室暴露現在被歸類為可保留的批評。重要的是，自去年第二季以來，可預訂的受批評風險敞口的成長速度每季都在放緩。因此，我們認為這些辦公室物業的損失已提前承擔並大部分保留。我們預計第二季虧損將減少。我們預計，在預期房地產價格沒有任何重大變化的情況下，今年下半年的房價將較上半年大幅下降。在投影片 29 的附錄中，我們像往常一樣包含了商業房地產和辦公大樓投資組合指標的當前視圖。

Okay. Let's turn to the various lines of business and offer some brief comments on their results, starting on Slide 13 with Consumer Banking. For the quarter, Consumer Banking earned $2.7 billion on continued strong organic growth. The reported earnings declined 15% year-over-year as revenue declined from lower deposit balances compared to the first quarter of '23. Credit card loss normalization also caused year-over-year provision expense to increase. As Brian noted, customer activity showed another strong quarter of net new checking growth, another strong period of card openings and investment balances for consumer clients, which climbed 29% year-over-year to a record $456 billion. That included market appreciation and also very strong full year flows of $44 billion.

好的。讓我們從幻燈片 13 的消費者銀行業務開始，轉向各個業務領域並對其結果進行一些簡短的評論。本季度，消費者銀行業務憑藉持續強勁的有機成長實現了 27 億美元的利潤。與 2023 年第一季相比，由於存款餘額較低，收入下降，報告收益年減 15%。信用卡損失正常化也導致撥備費用較去年同期增加。正如布萊恩指出的那樣，客戶活動顯示新支票淨增長又一個強勁的季度，消費者客戶的開卡和投資餘額又一個強勁的時期，同比增長 29% 至創紀錄的 4560 億美元。其中包括市場升值以及 440 億美元的強勁全年資金流入。

As noted earlier, loans grew nicely year-over-year from credit card as well as small business where we remain the industry leader. Expenses were flat year-over-year, fighting off inflation, merit increases, higher minimum wages and new and renovated financial centers and technology investments. So holding expense flat reflected very good work by the consumer team. As you can see on the appendix, Page 20, digital adoption and engagement continued to improve, reaching a record of 3.4 billion digital log-ins in the quarter, and it showed good year-over-year improvement. Customer satisfaction scores at near-record levels illustrate the continued appreciation of the enhanced capabilities we provide.

如前所述，來自信用卡和小型企業的貸款同比增長良好，我們仍然是行業領先者。支出較去年同期持平，抵禦了通貨膨脹、績效成長、最低工資上漲以及新建和翻新的金融中心和技術投資。因此，保持支出持平反映了消費者團隊的出色工作。正如您在第 20 頁附錄中看到的那樣，數位化採用率和參與度持續改善，本季數位登入量達到 34 億次，創下歷史新高，並且同比改善良好。客戶滿意度得分接近歷史最高水平，這表明我們對我們提供的增強功能的持續讚賞。

Moving to wealth management on Slide 14. We produced good results, and that included good organic client activity, market favorability and strong flows. Our comprehensive suite of investment and advisory services, coupled with a commitment to personalized wealth management planning and solutions, has enabled us to meet the diverse needs and aspirations of our clients. In the first quarter, we reported record revenue of $5.6 billion and a little more than $1 billion in net income. That net income rose 10% from the first quarter of '23. Business generated positive operating leverage and grew revenue faster than expense, while improving the pretax margin year-over-year. While overall average loans were down year-over-year driven by the securities-based lending, it's worth noting the strong growth we're seeing in custom lending, and ending loans in the wealth management customer loan book are up 6% year-over-year.

轉到幻燈片 14 上的財富管理。我們全面的投資和諮詢服務，加上對個人化財富管理規劃和解決方案的承諾，使我們能夠滿足客戶的多樣化需求和願望。第一季度，我們公佈了創紀錄的 56 億美元收入和略高於 10 億美元的淨利潤。該淨利潤較 2023 年第一季增長了 10%。業務產生了積極的營運槓桿，收入成長快於支出，同時稅前利潤率較去年同期提高。雖然整體平均貸款在證券貸款的推動下同比下降，但值得注意的是定制貸款的強勁增長，理財客戶貸款賬簿中的期末貸款同比增長 6% -年。

As Brian noted earlier, both Merrill and the Private Bank continued to see strong organic growth and produced good assets under management flows of more than $60 billion since the first quarter of '23, which reflects a good mix of new client money as well as existing clients putting money to work. Expense growth here [max] the revenue growth, otherwise fighting off higher investment costs and inflation. Let me also highlight the continued digital momentum here. As an example, Merrill has 86% of its clients now engaging with us digitally and 80% utilizing eDelivery. 76% of their eligible accounts are now opened digitally. So the cost for us to open is half, and the customer cycle times are improved greatly.

正如布賴恩早些時候指出的，自23 年第一季以來，美林和私人銀行都繼續保持強勁的有機增長，並在管理流量超過600 億美元的情況下產生了良好的資產，這反映了新客戶資金與現有客戶資金的良好組合。這裡的支出成長[最大]收入成長，否則會抵消更高的投資成本和通貨膨脹。我還要強調這裡持續的數位化勢頭。例如，Merrill 86% 的客戶現在透過數位方式與我們互動，其中 80% 使用電子交付。 76% 的合格帳戶現已以數位方式開設。這樣我們的開店成本就減少了一半，顧客的週期時間也大大提高了。

On Slide 15, you see Global Banking results. And the business produced earnings of just less than $2 billion, down 22% year-over-year, as improved investment banking fees and treasury services revenue were overcome by lower net interest income and higher provision expense. Revenue declined 4%, driven by the impact of interest rates and deposit rotation to interest-bearing, and that impacted NII. The diversification of our revenue across products and regions continues to reflect the strength of this platform, and GTS and investment banking fees are good examples. In our Global Treasury Services business, some of the NII pressure from higher rates on deposits is offset by the fees paid for moving and managing the cash of clients, and that continues to grow with existing clients as well as with new client generation.

在投影片 15 上，您可以看到全球銀行業務結果。該業務的利潤略低於 20 億美元，年減 22%，因為淨利息收入下降和撥備費用上升抵消了投資銀行費用和資金服務收入的成長。由於利率和存款輪調為計息的影響，收入下降了 4%，這也影響了 NII。我們跨產品和跨地區的收入多元化繼續反映了該平台的實力，GTS 和投資銀行費用就是很好的例子。在我們的全球資金服務業務中，存款利率上升帶來的部分NII壓力被轉移和管理客戶現金所支付的費用所抵消，並且隨著現有客戶以及新客戶的產生，這種壓力持續增長。

As Brian noted, Investment Banking had a strong quarter. And at $1.6 billion in investment banking fees, this quarter was the strongest quarter in 7 years, absent the pandemic 2020 and 2021 periods. An increase in provision expense included the commercial real estate net charge-offs I discussed earlier as well as a larger reserve release in the prior year period. Expense increased 2% year-over-year, including the 35% lift in investment banking fees from the first quarter of '23.

正如布萊恩指出的那樣，投資銀行業的季度表現強勁。在沒有 2020 年和 2021 年大流行期間的情況下，本季的投資銀行費用為 16 億美元，是 7 年來最強勁的季度。撥備費用的增加包括我之前討論的商業房地產淨沖銷以及上一年期間更大的準備金釋放。費用年增 2%，其中投資銀行費用較 2023 年第一季增加 35%。

Switching to Global Markets on Slide 16. We'll focus our comments on results, excluding DVA, as we normally do. The team had another terrific quarter with $1.8 billion in earnings, growing 7% year-over-year. Revenue improved 6% from the first quarter of '23, and return on average allocated capital was 16%. Focusing on sales and trading ex DVA. Revenue improved 2% year-over-year to $5.2 billion, which is the highest first quarter result in over a decade. FICC was down 4%, while equities increased 15% compared to the first quarter of '23. And the decline in the FICC revenues versus the first quarter was driven by a weaker macro trading quarter that was partially offset by better mortgage trading results. Equities was driven by strong trading results in derivatives, and year-over-year expenses were up 4% on continued investment in the business.

在幻燈片 16 上切換到全球市場。該團隊又迎來了一個出色的季度，營收達到 18 億美元，年增 7%。收入比 2023 年第一季提高了 6%，平均分配資本回報率為 16%。專注於 DVA 之前的銷售和交易。營收年增 2%，達到 52 億美元，這是十多年來第一季的最高業績。與 2023 年第一季相比，FICC 下降了 4%，而股票則上漲了 15%。 FICC 收入較第一季下降的原因是宏觀交易季度疲軟，但抵押貸款交易結果的改善部分抵消了這一影響。衍生性商品的強勁交易表現推動了股市的上漲，由於對該業務的持續投資，費用同比增長了 4%。

Finally, and on Slide 17, All Other shows a loss of $700 million, driven by the FDIC assessment. Revenue declined year-over-year, reflecting higher investment tax credit deals. And expense, adjusted for the FDIC assessment, was down $113 million, driven by lower unemployment processing costs. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 8%. And excluding the FDIC assessment and other discrete items, it would have been 9%. And further excluding tax credits related to investments in renewable energy and affordable housing, our effective tax rate would have been 26%.

最後，在幻燈片 17 上，所有其他顯示 FDIC 評估造成的 7 億美元損失。收入較去年同期下降，反映出投資稅收抵免交易增加。由於失業處理成本降低，根據 FDIC 評估調整後的費用減少了 1.13 億美元。我們本季的有效稅率為 8%。排除 FDIC 評估和其他離散項目，比例為 9%。進一步排除與再生能源和經濟適用房投資相關的稅收抵免，我們的有效稅率將為 26%。

Thank you. And with that, we'll jump into Q&A.

謝謝。接下來，我們將進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak 提出的第一個問題。

So maybe just to start off with a question on capital management. Just given the strength of your excess capital position, there may be still some uncertainty around Basel III endgame and where the proposal could ultimately shake out. I was hoping you could just speak to where you're comfortable running on CET1. And when can we expect that you'll return to 100%-plus type payout?

所以也許只是從資本管理的問題開始。考慮到您的超額資本頭寸的實力，巴塞爾協議 III 的最終階段以及該提案最終可能在何處可能仍存在一些不確定性。我希望你能談談你在 CET1 上跑得舒服的地方。我們什麼時候才能恢復 100% 以上的支付方式？

I think you should expect that we run a cushion. Whatever rules come out and when they come out and get clarity, we'll expect to run the requirements plus 50 basis points up to 100 basis points of excess. And anything above that will be either used to continue to grow the company, if needed. If not, it will be returned. And so we're just -- as all of us are waiting for the finalization of these rules, right now we're sitting on $30 billion under the old rules. We have enough under the new rules as previously proposed. But obviously, they're talking about changing them.

我想你應該預料到我們會提供緩衝。無論出台什麼規則，以及何時出台並變得清晰，我們預計都會執行要求加上 50 個基點到 100 個基點的超額。如果需要的話，以上的任何東西都將用於繼續發展公司。如果沒有，它將被退回。因此，我們所有人都在等待這些規則的最終確定，而現在我們在舊規則下坐擁 300 億美元。根據先前提議的新規則，我們已經足夠了。但顯然，他們正在談論改變它們。

So you should expect clarity on that. What you also expect is, as we think about it beginning now, you're basically at the point where you're sitting on the capital, the very modest need to build a cushion to the rules as proposed and any changes will be more favorable, that I assume. So expect us to continue to return capital at a fairly strong rate as we move through the second quarter and beyond and the rules become clarified.

所以你應該期待這一點的澄清。您還期望的是，正如我們現在開始考慮的那樣，您基本上處於坐擁資本的地步，非常有必要為提議的規則建立緩衝，任何變化都會更加有利，我假設。因此，隨著第二季及以後的時間和規則的明確，預計我們將繼續以相當強勁的速度返還資本。

Great color, Brian. And for my follow-up, just on the NII commentary. Alastair, it sounds like you're still assuming some modest deposit growth in the back half as part of that NII trajectory, that recovery off the trough in 2Q. Just given your deposit balances increased $500 billion since COVID, I know some of that's going to be a function of share gains. But as we prepare for some Q2-driven outflows, how are you handicapping the risk of deposit attrition? And how does that impact the NII guidance? If you can frame any sort of sensitivity, recognizing many of those tend to be hot money or higher-cost deposits.

顏色很棒，布萊恩。我的後續行動是關於 NII 的評論。阿拉斯泰爾，聽起來您仍然假設後半段存款會出現適度增長，作為 NII 軌蹟的一部分，即從第二季度的低谷中復甦。鑑於自新冠疫情以來你們的存款餘額增加了 5000 億美元，我知道其中一部分將取決於股票收益。但當我們為第二季驅動的資金外流做好準備時，您如何降低存款流失的風險？這對 NII 指導有何影響？如果你能夠建立任何類型的敏感性，就會認識到其中許多往往是熱錢或成本較高的存款。

Yes. So first thing, I would just say, Steven, is we've been up against Q2 now for the last couple of years. So the deposits are beginning to settle in now. And if we were to go back to -- if you take, for example, consumer, if you were to go back to pre-pandemic and think about what long-term sustainable growth rates look like for consumer, if you just extended that through from the fourth quarter of 2019 to today, given that the economy is 30% larger, we kind of feel like consumer is approaching that floor.

是的。所以，史蒂文，我想說的第一件事是，過去幾年我們一直在面對第二季。因此，存款現在開始穩定下來。如果我們要回到——例如，如果你以消費者為例，如果你要回到大流行前並思考消費者的長期可持續增長率是什麼樣的，如果你只是將其延伸到從2019 年第四季到今天，考慮到經濟成長了30%，我們感覺消費者正在接近這個底線。

So we're still in this belief that Q2 is going to be -- Q3 may be the turning point for consumer. You can see that slowing though. The rest of our business, if you look at the exhibit we put together on deposits, if you look at that bottom left chart on wealth, you'll see it slowed and grew this quarter.

因此，我們仍然相信第二季將是——第三季可能是消費者的轉捩點。不過你可以看到這種速度正在放緩。我們的其餘業務，如果你看看我們整理的存款圖表，如果你看看左下角的財富圖表，你會發現本季成長放緩並成長。

And then in Global Banking on the right-hand side of that page, they're kind of back to pre-pandemic growth rates. They're up 7% year-over-year. So we're seeing some structure now in the deposit base. Even with Q2 over the course of the past year, our deposits were up $100 billion. So it has been a point of conviction of ours that, as we get towards Q2, we should see the consumer side begin to stabilize. That's what's driving our conviction that NII will go up in Q3 and Q4. We're in that transition period right now.

然後，在該頁面右側的全球銀行業務中，它們有點回到了大流行前的成長率。他們比去年同期增長了 7%。所以我們現在在存款基礎上看到了一些結構。即使去年第二季度，我們的存款也增加了 1,000 億美元。因此，我們堅信，隨著第二季的到來，我們應該看到消費者方面開始穩定。這就是我們堅信 NII 將在第三季和第四季上升的原因。我們現在正處於過渡時期。

We'll take our next question from Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo.

我們將回答富國銀行麥克梅奧的下一個問題。

Well, thanks for the outlook for NII and then consumer charge-offs. But once again, I go back to efficiency. And you highlight the 2 billion Erica interactions, the last 1 billion in the last 18 months. You mentioned Zelle, transaction now double the check, transactions are more than checks plus cash withdrawals from ATMs plus cash withdrawal from tellers. So for all the great tech work, the efficiency ratio improved 66% to 64% quarter-over-quarter. But I know you're still not happy with that 64%.

好吧，感謝 NII 的前景以及消費者沖銷。但我再次回到效率上來。您重點介紹了 Erica 的 20 億次互動，即過去 18 個月內的最後 10 億次。你提到Zelle，現在交易量是支票的兩倍，交易量超過了支票加上ATM取現加上櫃員取現的金額。因此，對於所有出色的技術工作，效率比季度環比提高了 66% 至 64%。但我知道你對那 64% 仍然不滿意。

So as you see the NII decline [in site] and as you have this tech evolutions continuing, when do you think you can get below a 60% efficiency ratio? What's your outlook for that? Because I'm just reconciling the numbers that we look at with all the progress you're making internally.

因此，當您看到 NII [現場] 下降並且技術不斷發展時，您認為何時可以將效率比降至 60% 以下？您對此有何看法？因為我只是將我們看到的數字與你們內部取得的所有進展進行核對。

Mike, I think as NII sort of moves along the path that Alastair mentioned, all that sort of flows through because there's no more activity it touches, as you're pointing out, and we continue to reduce marginal expense of that activity because largely, that's a consumer and wealth management and Global Banking, which don't add lots more clients and stuff and lots more activity. Even though the numbers go up, it's out of efficiency. So that continue to improve our efficiency ratio.

麥克，我認為隨著NII 沿著阿拉斯泰爾提到的路徑前進，所有這些都會流過，因為正如你所指出的，它不再涉及任何活動，而且我們繼續減少該活動的邊際費用，因為很大程度上，這是消費者和財富管理以及全球銀行業務，它們不會增加更多的客戶和東西以及更多的活動。儘管數字上升了，但效率不高。從不斷提高我們的效率比。

As you also well know, when the revenue growth is coming through the wealth management business, which, by definition, because of the way the compensation process works, has the lowest efficiency ratio in the company, that's a good thing. Because it grows and we get good profitability growth out of it, but we're fighting that trend. And as one of the largest wealth management business in the world, if not, it's a higher percentage of our revenues and our expense base.

大家也都知道，當收入成長來自財富管理業務時，根據定義，由於薪酬流程的運作方式，財富管理業務的效率在公司中是最低的，這是一件好事。因為它正在成長，我們從中獲得了良好的獲利成長，但我們正在與這種趨勢作鬥爭。作為世界上最大的財富管理企業之一，如果不是的話，那就是我們的收入和支出基礎所佔的比例更高。

And so we'll continue to drive it down. We're at 64%. You'd expect that to improve as the deposit balance has stabilized and for many quarters now and starting to grow. The rate paid has really flattened out sequentially by quarter, and the yield of the portfolio and the yield of the assets continue to grow. So we feel good about how it's going. Our focus is really on deploying expenses in operating leverage. And as we get through the twist in the NII, you should start to see us return to that again. And that would then obviously drive down the efficiency ratio.

因此我們將繼續降低它。我們現在是 64%。隨著存款餘額穩定下來並且已經連續多個季度開始成長，您預計情況會有所改善。支付的利率確實逐季度趨於平穩，投資組合的收益率和資產的收益率持續成長。所以我們對事情的進展感覺很好。我們的重點實際上是在營運槓桿中部署費用。當我們度過國家資訊基礎設施的困境時，你應該會開始看到我們再次回到這個問題。這顯然會降低效率。

What are you thinking about expense growth for the rest of the year or next year? For a while there, you're trying -- and I get it, inflation has gone up quite a bit. But what are your thoughts about expense growth looking ahead?

您對今年剩餘時間或明年的費用成長有何看法？有一段時間，你正在嘗試——我明白了，通貨膨脹已經上升了很多。但您對未來費用成長有何看法？

Well, last year, remember, Mike, we told you we thought we could drive expense down every quarter. We believe this year, the expense will trend down over the course of this year. And obviously, Q1 has inflated a little bit with just payroll tax and some of the revenue seasonality. But underneath that, there's pretty significant revenue strength. So I think that probably cost us $100 million or so this quarter. I think we probably are looking -- if this environment continues, we're looking at another $100 million per quarter going forward. But it's -- to Brian's point, it's the good expense that comes with revenue growth over time. That's really the only change, I'd say, with respect to how we think about the expense picture.

好吧，去年，麥克，請記住，我們告訴過你，我們認為我們可以降低每季的開支。我們相信今年的費用將呈現下降趨勢。顯然，第一季僅因工資稅和一些收入季節性因素而略有膨脹。但在此之下，還有相當可觀的收入實力。所以我認為本季可能花費 1 億美元左右。我認為我們可能會考慮——如果這種環境持續下去，我們會考慮在未來每季再增加 1 億美元。但在布萊恩看來，隨著時間的推移，隨著收入的增長，這是一筆不錯的支出。我想說，就我們如何看待費用情況而言，這確實是唯一的變化。

We'll take our next question from John McDonald of Autonomous Research.

我們將接受自治研究中心的約翰·麥克唐納 (John McDonald) 提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to follow up on the helpful deposit commentary, Alastair. So you mentioned the consumer. You're thinking that, that will stabilize in the back half of the year on deposits. Wondering what your mix shift expectations are. Earlier this year, you kind of thought that those customers had moved for rate seeking, already had. I'm just wondering if higher rates for longer could put some pressure on rate-seeking behavior again. And what you're baking in, in terms of mix shift from noninterest-bearing. Is interest-bearing in your outlook and your planning?

我想跟進有用的存款評論，阿拉斯泰爾。所以你提到了消費者。您認為，存款將在今年下半年趨於穩定。想知道您的混合轉變期望是什麼。今年早些時候，您可能認為這些客戶已經開始尋求價格，事實上已經如此。我只是想知道，較長時間內較高的利率是否會再次對利率尋求行為施加壓力。以及你正在烘焙的內容，從無息混合轉變的角度來看。您的觀點和計劃是否具有利息？

Yes, John, I think if you look at 7, you could see sort of the mix in the left-hand corner. Remember that one of the things people have to -- we all have to be careful about is in the Global Banking area, the way the fees are paid and earnings credit. It messes up the simplicity of noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing, so it's complex. But if you look at the quarters coming across from the first quarter of '23 through the first quarter of '24, you can see that -- you're seeing the rate of change slow dramatically and kind of settle in.

是的，約翰，我想如果你看 7，你可以在左上角看到某種混合。請記住，我們所有人都必須小心的一件事是在全球銀行領域，即費用支付和收益信貸的方式。它把無息和有息的簡單性搞亂了，所以很複雜。但如果你看看從 23 年第一季到 24 年第一季的各個季度，你會發現——你會發現變化速度急劇放緩，並且已經穩定下來。

So I don't -- a lot of the money has moved in -- if you look at the 7-day average for consumer go all the way back to the early part of October, it's been relatively stable at $950 billion, $960 billion. So we're just getting to the tax seasons and ins and outs in the wealth management business and consumer. People paying taxes out on the wealthier side and receiving benefits on the tax refund side. So as we stabilize in that, we expect it to grow. We don't expect a massive change in how the deposits are structured from a -- what's in money markets, what's in savings, what's in checking, what's in that. It's really slowed down and been relatively stable.

所以我不認為——大量資金已經流入——如果你看看消費者的 7 天平均值，一直追溯到 10 月初，你會發現它相對穩定在 9500 億美元、9600 億美元。我們剛剛了解了納稅季節以及財富管理業務和消費者的來龍去脈。人們在富裕的一方納稅，在退稅的一方獲得福利。因此，當我們穩定下來時，我們預計它會成長。我們預期存款的結構不會發生巨大變化——貨幣市場中的內容、儲蓄中的內容、支票中的內容等等。它確實放緩了並且相對穩定。

So things bump around, but it's all very good value, even the highest-paid balances in the wealth management business are good value for the company. But if you look at what really drives the value to the $950-odd billion in checking balances, you can see on Page 7 the core checking balances, that's what drives it.

所以事情會發生變化，但這一切都非常有價值，即使是財富管理業務中收入最高的餘額對公司來說也很有價值。但如果你看看真正推動支票餘額價值達到 950 多億美元的因素，你可以在第 7 頁看到核心支票餘額，這就是推動它的因素。

Yes. You're still feeling, Brian, like the bulk of people that have kind of moved on rate-seeking behavior likely have done so.

是的。布萊恩，你仍然感覺，大多數已經採取尋求利率行為的人可能已經這樣做了。

Yes. If you look on the consumer business and you think about tracking those deposits accounts from pre-pandemic to now, which is one thing we talked about for different purposes. But if you look at where all the deposit balances, if people with lower average balances are still multiples of where they were pre-pandemic, people with higher balances are actually lower because, obviously, they were sitting on cash when the pandemic and accumulate more cash. And when rates came up, they moved it. And all in, that gives you what you see in consumer, which is at the end of the day, a couple of hundred billion dollars over where it was pre-pandemic.

是的。如果你看看消費者業務，你會考慮追蹤從疫情前到現在的這些存款帳戶，這是我們出於不同目的討論的一件事。但如果你看看所有存款餘額在哪裡，如果平均餘額較低的人仍然是大流行前的倍數，那麼餘額較高的人實際上會較低，因為很明顯，他們在大流行期間持有現金並累積了更多現金。當利率上升時，他們就改變了利率。總而言之，這給了你所看到的消費者，最終，比大流行前的水準增加了數千億美元。

And so -- but the people have moved. And you're seeing it month-to-month relatively stable as we track that every month on both sides, frankly, the lower average balance accounts from pre-pandemic are basically bouncing around at the same level right now, not going down, not going up. And the higher ones are stable, but they are down 15%, 20% for people with a $0.5 million, $1 million balances largely because they moved it in the market. So we feel stabilized. There'll be ins and outs, and we'll see it play out, but it's extremely valuable no matter how you look at it.

所以——但是人們已經搬家了。你會看到它逐月相對穩定，因為我們跟踪雙方的每個月，坦率地說，大流行前的較低平均餘額帳戶目前基本上在同一水平上反彈，而不是下降，也不是往上走。較高的餘額是穩定的，但對於擁有 50 萬美元、100 萬美元餘額的人來說，它們下降了 15%、20%，主要是因為他們將其轉移到市場上。所以我們感覺很穩定。會有來龍去脈，我們會看到它的結果，但無論你如何看待它，它都非常有價值。

Okay. And maybe as a quick follow-up for Alastair. It's nice to see the core NIM, the net interest yield ex markets inflect positively this quarter. Is that sustainable, do you feel like? And what are some of the fixed asset reprice dynamics that are tailwinds beyond the $10 billion per quarter on securities in terms of like loans and swaps that all come due over the next year or 2 and help the NIM a bit? Could you talk a little bit about that?

好的。也許可以作為阿拉斯泰爾的快速後續行動。很高興看到本季核心淨利差（除市場外的淨利息收益率）出現正面變化。你覺得這樣可持續嗎？就貸款和互換等證券​​而言，哪些固定資產重新定價動態是每季 100 億美元以上的順風車，這些證券都將在未來一兩年內到期，並對淨利差有所幫助？你能談談這個嗎？

Sure. We've talked about the fact that the net interest yield, obviously, this quarter benefits from the NII growth. So you're getting in the numerator. But we inflated the denominator in terms of the average earning assets last year as we just made the balance sheet more liquid. So that's going to allow us to continue the deposits growth, to grow the interest income over time without necessarily growing the other earning assets. So Q2 will have a little more of a challenge. But going forward, I expect all the NII improvement in Q3 and Q4 to drop into that net interest yield.

當然。我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即本季度的淨利息收益率顯然受益於國家資訊基礎設施的成長。所以你進入了分子。但去年我們誇大了平均獲利資產的分母，因為我們只是提高了資產負債表的流動性。因此，這將使我們能夠繼續存款成長，隨著時間的推移增加利息收入，而不必增加其他獲利資產。所以第二季將面臨更多的挑戰。但展望未來，我預計第三季和第四季的所有NII改善都會下降到淨利息收益率。

And part of the things supporting that, John, as you pointed out, is we do have loans repricing. Because we've got loans coming off the balance sheet, we're booking new loans at higher rates. So that's one element. Second element is we've got securities that we're reinvesting underneath all those two. So obviously, we're sweeping the hold-to-maturity paydowns and reinvesting those at much higher rates. And then third, the teams have been working hard at repricing the balance sheet broadly for things like loans. And I believe we've now had 7 quarters in a row of improving loan pricing. So we just got to keep grinding away at that.

約翰，正如您所指出的，支持這一點的部分原因是我們確實對貸款進行了重新定價。因為我們的資產負債表上有貸款，所以我們以更高的利率預訂新貸款。這就是其中一個要素。第二個要素是我們擁有在這兩者之下再投資的證券。顯然，我們正在清償持有至到期的付款，並以更高的利率進行再投資。第三，團隊一直在努力對貸款等資產負債表進行廣泛的重新定價。我相信我們現在已經連續七個季度改善貸款定價。所以我們必須繼續努力。

We'll take our next question from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的貝特西·格拉塞克 (Betsy Graseck) 提出的下一個問題。

I guess I just wanted to follow up on the conversation you're just having. And Alastair, I know that, look, your NII guide improved this quarter due to 1Q results being better than what you anticipated a quarter ago. My question is on the second half '24 improvement. I get that it's going to be an improvement from first half, right? That's basically the base that you're looking at. I'm wondering how you're thinking about the NII trajectory on a year (inaudible)? I believe NII is down about 3% year-on-year in 1Q. Should we anticipate that, that is kind of stable pace throughout the year? Or that reduces as well when we're talking about second half '24? If you could just give us a sense of year-on-year, that would be helpful.

我想我只是想跟進你們剛才的談話。阿拉斯泰爾，我知道，您的 NII 指南在本季度有所改善，因為第一季的結果比您上季度的預期要好。我的問題是關於 24 年下半年的改進。我知道這比上半年有改善，對嗎？這基本上就是您正在查看的基礎。我想知道您如何看待 NII 一年的軌跡（聽不清楚）？我認為第一季NII年減了3%左右。我們是否應該預期全年的步伐都是穩定的？或者當我們談論 24 年下半年時，這種情況也會減少？如果您能讓我們了解同比情況，那會很有幫助。

Betsy, before Alastair answers your question, it's good to have you back. And we wish you good luck with everything. So Alastair, why don't you hit that?

貝特西，在阿拉斯泰爾回答你的問題之前，很高興你能回來。我們祝福您一切順利。那麼阿拉斯泰爾，你為什麼不打那個呢？

Thanks so much, Brian. Really appreciate that.

非常感謝，布萊恩。真的很感激。

It's good to have you. So I guess a couple of things. The first thing is we haven't changed our perspective in terms of this idea of Q2 being the low point and the trough for the year. We haven't changed our point of view on growing in terms of Q3 and Q4. I think the important thing we're trying to convey is because of the continued stability in pricing rotation and because of this continued stability in deposits, we feel like that extra couple of hundred million in Q1 is something that should flow through in Q2, Q3 and Q4.

有你真好。所以我猜有幾件事。首先，我們沒有改變我們的觀點，即第二季度是今年的低點和低谷。我們對第三季和第四季成長的看法沒有改變。我認為我們想要傳達的重要一點是，由於價格輪換的持續穩定，並且由於存款的持續穩定，我們認為第一季額外的幾億應該在第二季、第三季流過和 Q4。

And then there'll be a second dynamic to watch for as well, Betsy, which is if we have less rate cuts, we're going to benefit from that. We wouldn't necessarily benefit a lot in Q2 because there isn't enough cuts or time in Q2. But I think by the time we get to Q3 and Q4, we'll know more about the rate structure at that point, and we'll be able to tell you more about how -- what we expect for the growth in the back half of the year. But we're reasonably optimistic there.

然後還有第二個值得關注的動態，貝特西，如果我們降息幅度較小，我們將從中受益。我們不一定會在第二季受益很多，因為第二季沒有足夠的削減或時間。但我認為，當我們進入第三季和第四季時，我們將更多地了解當時的利率結構，並且我們將能夠告訴您更多關於我們對下半年增長的預期今年的。但我們對此相當樂觀。

Super. That's perfect. And then just one follow-up is on the AOCI. So we all know that HTM is a portfolio that you're in runoff on, I guess, if that's fair to say, is the balances are pulling off. And this quarter, we did have a backup in the long end of the curve. Your AOCI really didn't flex that much. And part of my question is, is that a function of how the securities book is comprised? And you've been shifting towards treasuries, and that's reducing this risk as the back end of the curve increases. I just wanted to understand how that's trajecting in your mind. Because it is a concern that people raise, and what I thought today suggests that it's much less of a concern than it had been a year ago, say, for example. Would you agree with that? Or...

極好的。那很完美。接下來只有 AOCI 的一項後續行動。所以我們都知道 HTM 是一個你正在決選的投資組合，我想，如果公平地說，平衡正在消失。本季度，我們確實在曲線的長端有了備份。你的 AOCI 確實沒有那麼靈活。我的部分問題是，這是否與證券帳簿的組成有關？你已經轉向國債，隨著曲線後端的增加，這種風險也隨之降低。我只是想了解這在你的腦海中是如何發展的。因為這是人們提出的一個擔憂，而我今天的想法表明，與一年前相比，這個擔憂要少得多。你同意嗎？或者...

Yes. I mean we've deliberately worked on that over time. But we've always, I think, had a pretty good program of hedging the fixed rate securities in the AFS book so that they're swapped. And that means that if rates go up, we obviously benefit from that. It doesn't necessarily hurt us in terms of AOCI. So most all of the treasuries that you see in our portfolio are swapped. So I would expect very little in the way of AOCI impact there.

是的。我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，我們一直在刻意努力解決這個問題。但我認為，我們一直有一個非常好的計劃來對沖 AFS 帳簿中的固定利率證券，以便它們可以互換。這意味著如果利率上升，我們顯然會從中受益。就 AOCI 而言，這並不一定會損害我們。因此，您在我們的投資組合中看到的大多數國債都被互換了。因此，我預計 AOCI 不會對其產生影響。

We'll take our next question from Glenn Schorr of Evercore.

我們將回答 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr 的下一個問題。

I think perfect leading to this question. On Slide 8, you talk about AFS book securities mostly hedged, you're pulling the cost and the duration of less than a half year. I know the Fed forward curve keeps not being correct, but at some point, it's going to be correct and rates are going to come in. My question is, what do you do about that? How much do you think about extending duration and managing the swaps a little differently, as we eventually knew at this time transition to a different rate backdrop?

我認為完美地引出了這個問題。在投影片 8 上，您談論的 AFS 帳面證券大多是對沖的，您拉動的成本和持續時間不到半年。我知道聯準會的遠期曲線一直不正確，但在某個時候，它會是正確的，利率也會上升。您對延長久期和以不同的方式管理掉期有多少看法，因為我們最終知道此時過渡到不同的利率背景？

Yes. So Glenn, I mean, ultimately, we'll use the same philosophy and strategy that we do to this point. We are in, obviously, a very good position where we have substantial deposits in excess of loans. That's what creates this excess in the top left of Page 8, and it's what allows us to put everything to work in the top right. The balance that we try to strike, you can start to see in left-hand side. We're trying to make sure that, that cash and securities yield, compared to deposit rate paid, performs in any environment.

是的。所以格倫，我的意思是，最終我們將使用與目前相同的理念和策略。顯然，我們處於非常有利的位置，我們的存款多於貸款。這就是在第 8 頁的左上角產生多餘內容的原因，也正是它讓我們能夠將所有內容放在右上角。我們試圖達到的平衡，你可以開始在左側看到。我們正在努力確保與支付的存款利率相比，現金和證券收益率在任何環境下都能表現良好。

So in an environment like this one where there's an awful lot going on with rates, we feel like if you look at that spread, I think it was 1 basis point different quarter-over-quarter. So we're trying to make sure that we lock in the value, monetize the deposits regardless of whatever rate environment turns out to be. And we feel like we're pretty balanced now. We've got a pretty good balance of short-dated, long-dated, fixed and floating. That should allow us to perform whether rates go up or down from here.

因此，在這樣的環境下，利率發生了很多變化，我們覺得如果你看看這個利差，我認為季度與季度之間有 1 個基點的差異。因此，無論利率環境如何，我們都試圖確保鎖定價值，將存款貨幣化。我們感覺現在已經相當平衡了。我們在短期、長期、固定和浮動之間取得了很好的平衡。這應該使我們能夠執行無論利率從現在上升還是下降。

One final thing I'll just say, and I think you know this. Underneath all of this, obviously, we've got some securities repricing. And to the point, I think it was John asked earlier, we've got the loans repricing as well, and all of that gives a little bit of underlying resilience to this.

我只想說最後一件事，我想你知道這一點。顯然，在這一切的背後，我們進行了一些證券重新定價。就這一點而言，我認為約翰之前問過，我們也對貸款進行了重新定價，所有這些都為此提供了一點潛在的彈性。

Yes, I get that. I guess you have a lot of flexibility should you decide this time. Just one follow-up. You talked deposits with that. You had a smidgen of year-on-year loan growth mostly in cards, I think. But it seems -- I know how we got here, but we're in an environment -- it's really strong economy, up markets and yet no loan growth. Are we -- is this just -- any way you slice it, we have to like go through another year or 2 of super low loan growth. Or are there any leading indicators that would lead you to believe we can get back to a little bit more normal BofA loan growth and not have to wait 2 years for it?

是的，我明白了。我想如果你這次做出決定的話，你會有很大的彈性。只是一個後續行動。你談到了存款。我認為，貸款較去年同期略有成長，主要是信用卡貸款。但看起來——我知道我們是如何走到這一步的，但我們所處的環境——經濟確實強勁，市場上漲，但貸款卻沒有成長。我們——這只是——無論你如何劃分，我們都必須再經歷一兩年的超低貸款成長。或者是否有任何領先指標可以讓您相信我們可以恢復到美國銀行貸款成長的正常水平，而不必等待兩年？

Yes. Well, I think we're probably getting closer now because, remember, in a big macro, we're in that transition period where post-pandemic, the economy is sort of recovering and rates are settling in and it's changing people's behaviors. So we've actually got pretty good credit card growth. And that's just offset by the fact that, for example, with securities-based lending at rates that are 5% higher, people are doing less of it. Or in commercial, we've got some loan growth, but the revolver utilization is still suppressed because revolver costs a lot more. So as the Fed has raised rates, it's changed some of the borrowing patterns of our clients, but that's not going to last forever. Because as you point out, the economy powers through at 3%, 3.5,%. Whatever it ends up being, loan growth is going to catch up to that over time.

是的。嗯，我認為我們現在可能已經越來越接近了，因為請記住，在一個大的宏觀層面上，我們正​​處於大流行後的過渡時期，經濟正在復蘇，利率正在穩定下來，並且正在改變人們的行為。因此，我們實際上獲得了相當不錯的信用卡成長。而這只是被以下事實所抵銷：例如，當以證券為基礎的貸款利率高出 5% 時，人們的借貸行為就會減少。或者在商業領域，我們的貸款有所增長，但左輪手槍的利用率仍然受到抑制，因為左輪手槍的成本要高得多。因此，隨著聯準會升息，它改變了我們客戶的一些借貸模式，但這不會永遠持續下去。因為正如您所指出的，經濟成長率為 3%、3.5%。無論最終結果如何，隨著時間的推移，貸款成長將趕上這一點。

So for right now, we're in that transition period. But we're anticipating that loan growth will pick up at some point in the future, but it's not an enormous part of our NII guide at this point.

因此，目前我們正處於過渡時期。但我們預計貸款成長將在未來某個時候回升，但目前這還不是我們國家資訊基礎設施指南的重要組成部分。

And just remember that the capital markets opened up and a lot of the larger clients access them as they, frankly, have gotten used to the higher rate structure and need to refinance. So that -- if you look across the businesses, you've got the commercial run. But if you look across the commercial businesses in the middle market and business banking, the segment up to $50 million in revenue companies and up to $2.5 billion, they actually saw progress on loan growth. It was really in the high end, Global Corporate and Investment Banking business, where you saw sort of paydowns and bring that down.

請記住，資本市場開放了，許多大客戶進入資本市場，坦白說，他們已經習慣了更高的利率結構並需要再融資。因此，如果你縱觀所有業務，你會發現商業運作。但如果你縱觀中間市場和商業銀行的商業業務，收入高達 5000 萬美元的公司和高達 25 億美元的細分市場，他們實際上看到了貸款成長的進展。這確實是在高端的全球企業和投資銀行業務中，你會看到一些回報並降低它。

That phenomena is one that occurs from time to time. It's probably stabilized now and we'll see it play out. But we are fighting for loan growth. And frankly, line usage stabilized and is better than it's been for the last few quarters in terms of trend. And so again, that all speaks to people feeling fine, but they're not quite as aggressive as they would be when you read the economic statistics. And that's one of the great debates you can read about in the paper every day.

這種現象時常發生。現在可能已經穩定下來，我們將拭​​目以待。但我們正在為貸款成長而奮鬥。坦白說，線路使用量趨於穩定，並且就趨勢而言比過去幾季要好。再說一遍，這一切都表明人們感覺良好，但他們並不像你閱讀經濟統計數據時那樣激進。這是您每天都可以在報紙上讀到的重大辯論之一。

We'll take our next question from Matt O'Connor of Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納的下一個問題。

So obviously, there's been a lot of questions on net interest income and a lot of color, I guess. Just when you put it all together, like when you think about the higher-for-longer environment, obviously, it's good on the reinvestments. You're trying to match the deposits like you talked about. But how would you just boil it down? The rate disclosures still show $3 billion kind of exposure to either side. Is stable rates for a couple of years, is that good? Or does that accelerate the deposit repricing? Or just boil that down.

顯然，我想，關於淨利息收入有很多問題，也有很多色彩。當你把所有這些放在一起時，就像當你考慮更高、更長期的環境時，顯然，這對再投資是有利的。你正試圖像你所說的那樣匹配存款。但你要如何把它歸結為呢？利率披露仍然顯示雙方都有 30 億美元的風險敞口。利率穩定幾年好不好？或者說這會加速存款重新定價嗎？或者只是把它歸結起來。

Sure. Well, I'd say generally speaking, higher for longer is probably better for banks as a general statement. The question will become why are rates higher? Like what's going on in the economy? Are we talking about inflation? Is it under control? Is it coming down? Right now, that appears to be the case. So that's obviously a good place. And the Fed is in a good place because they appear to have rates -- a real rate that's high enough to make sure that inflation stays in a good place.

當然。嗯，我想說，一般來說，作為一般性聲明，長期較高的利率可能對銀行更好。問題將變成為什麼利率更高？例如經濟中發生了什麼事？我們在談通貨膨脹嗎？是否得到控制？它要下來了嗎？現在看來，情況確實如此。所以這顯然是一個好地方。聯準會處於有利位置，因為他們的利率似乎足夠高，足以確保通膨保持在良好水平。

Things can change that, so an awful lot will depend upon just the why for rates. But generally speaking, if it's just because it's taken a little while longer for the inflation to nudge down before the next set of cuts, that's probably a good environment for us. I would expect us to perform relatively better than we've disclosed so far.

事情可能會改變這一點，因此很大程度上取決於利率的原因。但總的來說，如果只是因為通膨在下一輪降息之前需要更長的時間才能下降，那麼這對我們來說可能是一個很好的環境。我預計我們的表現會比迄今為止披露的要好。

And then you're asking a second question, which is around the what does the sensitivity look like to plus $100 million or minus $100 million. We've tried to just make sure that we continue to stay balanced. If anything, that corridor of plus $100 million, minus $100 million has gotten narrower and narrower over time as we're trying to lock in NII that's $4 billion or $5 billion higher per quarter today than it was 3 years ago. And just make sure that the shareholder benefits from that through the course of time. So we'll see how the environment plays out. It's only been a quarter since we were last year talking about 6 cuts, now it's 3. So we just have to watch this play out and stay patient.

然後你問第二個問題，即加 1 億美元或減 1 億美元的敏感度是多少。我們努力確保我們繼續保持平衡。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是隨著時間的推移，隨著我們試圖鎖定每季比3 年前高出40 億或50 億美元的NII，正1 億美元、負1 億美元的走廊變得越來越窄。只要確保股東隨著時間的推移從中受益即可。所以我們將看看環境如何發揮作用。距離我們去年談論 6 次削減才過去了四分之一，現在已經是 3 次了。

We'll take our next question from Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

我們將回答 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin 的下一個問題。

A real breakout quarter for the IB fee line. And just wondering a couple of things within that. One, there was a bit of a back and forth from some of the other banks about whether or not DCM was pulled forward a little bit from future. I wonder what you think about that. But more broadly, just you guys have done a good job taking share. What inning do you think you are in terms of not so much as green shoots, but in terms of where that incremental productivity is in terms of getting that IB line to a more permanent higher level?

IB 費用線真正突破的季度。只是想知道其中的一些事情。第一，其他一些銀行對於 DCM 是否會從未來推遲一點意見不一。我想知道你對此有何看法。但更廣泛地說，只有你們在分享方面做得很好。你認為自己處於哪一局，與其說是萌芽，不如說是在提高生產力方面，使 IB 線達到更持久的更高水平？

So think about it, if you go back in sort of the period prior to the run-up in the couple of years after pandemic, you've had sort of mid-$1.5 billion, this type of numbers a quarter. We think we're fundamentally stronger in the market position, as you said. So we feel very good about the work Matthew and the team have done. And we -- as we look at it, we believe that they'll continue to gain share. And I think this is a more normalized level and whether it's pulled forward or not, we'll find out.

所以想一想，如果你回到大流行後幾年上漲之前的時期，你就會有大約 15 億美元，這個數字是四分之一。正如您所說，我們認為我們的市場地位從根本上更強。所以我們對 Matthew 和團隊所做的工作感到非常滿意。當我們觀察時，我們相信他們將繼續獲得份額。我認為這是一個更正常化的水平，無論是否提前，我們都會知道。

But it's a more normalized level given those dynamics and one we should be able to build off, especially as I said earlier, the penetration in the middle-market side of our business, whether those clients working up our wealth management in the markets generally, plus working across the globe, and we've done better work international. So we feel good everything that the team has done, the combination of corporate and investment banking is very strong. So we don't think this is like an unusually high-water mark, and we should be able to build from here.

但考慮到這些動態，這是一個更正常化的水平，我們應該能夠建立這一水平，特別是正如我之前所說，我們業務的中間市場方面的滲透，無論這些客戶是否普遍在市場上進行我們的財富管理，再加上在全球範圍內開展工作，我們在國際範圍內做得更好。所以我們對團隊所做的一切都感到很好，企業和投資銀行業務的結合非常牢固。因此，我們認為這並不是一個異常高的水位線，我們應該能夠從這裡開始建造。

Okay. Got it. And then one question about wealth management and just client choices in terms of where they're sitting relative to earning NII or earning fees. Where do you sense that the kind of cash versus fully invested is in terms of the wealth management brokerage business? And could that turn to the better, turn to the worse, depending on how that mix answer goes?

好的。知道了。然後是一個關於財富管理的問題，以及客戶在賺取NII或賺取費用方面的選擇。您認為在財富管理經紀業務中，現金與全額投資的差異在哪裡？這會變得更好，也可能變得更糟，這取決於混合答案的進展如何？

Well, wealth management, I think Lindsay, Katy and Eric highlight for us regularly just the elevated levels of cash that our clients have. A lot of that is on us, and you can see that in our deposit chart. But there's a lot that we captured in the investment area, too, where there, a lot of their flows are coming into maybe it's money market funds, maybe the short-dated treasuries, but there's a lot of cash at this point. So that would tell you it's supporting the ability to see continued assets under management flows going forward, depending on how the -- obviously, the stock market shakes out over time. But we're all struck by just the sheer amount of cash on the sidelines at this point.

嗯，在財富管理方面，我認為 Lindsay、Katy 和 Eric 經常向我們強調我們客戶擁有的現金水平較高。其中許多都是我們承擔的，您可以在我們的存款圖表中看到這一點。但我們在投資領域也捕捉到了很多東西，在那裡，他們的大量資金流入也許是貨幣市場基金，也許是短期國債，但目前有大量現金。因此，這會告訴你，它支持看到管理下的資產繼續流動的能力，這取決於——顯然，股市隨著時間的推移如何震動。但此時此刻，我們都對場外的巨額現金感到震驚。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our next question from Gerard Cassidy of RBC.

（操作員說明）我們將接受 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy 的下一個問題。

Alastair, coming back to Slide 8, which is obviously quite impressive on deposits, particularly the upper left-hand graph you've presented. When you go back to maybe 2014 or '15 and take a look at the deposit levels of your company from, let's say, 2015 to 2019, you just didn't have the growth that you experienced from the end of '19 through today. Can you guys share with us what drove this meaningful increase in not only in excess deposits but all deposits?

Alastair，回到幻燈片 8，這對於存款來說顯然令人印象深刻，特別是您展示的左上角圖表。當你回到 2014 年或 15 年，看看你的公司從 2015 年到 2019 年的存款水準時，你會發現你並沒有經歷從 19 年底到今天所經歷的成長。你們能否與我們分享一下是什麼推動了超額存款和所有存款的大幅成長？

I think, Gerard, so you've been around long enough to understand some of those dynamics. So as we move through the post-financial crisis, we had -- in terms of that chart, if you looked at it, you had a lot of loans that we ran off because they weren't core loans anymore and kind of troughed out the $900 billion level and then grew out from there. In 2015, that's where we started driving responsible growth. It was a call to growth now that we pushed out a lot of stuff in the financial crisis and got it behind us.

我想，傑拉德，你已經待了足夠長的時間來理解其中的一些動態。因此，當我們度過後金融危機時，就該圖表而言，如果你看一下，你會發現我們有很多貸款被跑掉，因為它們不再是核心貸款，而且已經陷入低谷。 ，然後從那裡增長。 2015 年，我們開始推動負責任的成長。現在我們在金融危機中推出了很多東西並把它拋在了身後，這是對成長的呼喚。

On the -- so the loans then start picking up. But if you remember back then, I think we had almost $300 billion, if I remember right, and if you looked at the slide on loans and the non-line of business loans are $200 billion or something like that, and it's down to $10 billion. So think about that dimension. So as we ran that down and could grow, we could overcome it. And so then on the growth on loan side is driven by discipline where we want to play, and the card business is getting it positioned. Right now, we could start to push from there, whether it's on home equity business on the auto loan business.

然後貸款開始增加。但如果你還記得當時的話，我想我們有近 3000 億美元，如果我沒記錯的話，如果你看一下貸款幻燈片，非線商業貸款是 2000 億美元或類似的數字，並且下降到 10 美元十億。所以考慮一下這個維度。因此，當我們克服它並不斷成長時，我們就可以克服它。因此，貸款方面的成長是由我們想要發揮的紀律推動的，信用卡業務正在對其進行定位。現在，我們可以從那裡開始推動，無論是房屋淨值業務還是汽車貸款業務。

And on the commercial side, it was -- we had less issues after financial crisis in commercial. But kind of getting through all that, it was getting to their credit quality we wanted. And a source of great growth for us from 2010 and beyond has been we've probably gone from, I don't know, $20 billion, $30 billion of outstanding loans out in the international, part of Matthew's business and GCIB to almost $100 billion type of number. So expansion of our international capabilities and done with great credit work by Geoff Greener and the team and Bruce Thompson's team. So put all that together, that's the loan side.

在商業方面，金融危機之後，我們在商業方面遇到的問題減少了。但在經歷了這一切之後，他們的信用品質就達到了我們想要的水平。從 2010 年及以後，我們龐大成長的一個來源是，我們在國際上（Matthew 的業務和 GCIB 的一部分）的未償還貸款可能從 200 億美元、300 億美元增加到近 1000 億美元號碼類型。我們國際能力的擴展是傑夫·格林納（Geoff Greener）及其團隊和布魯斯·湯普森（Bruce Thompson）團隊的巨大功勞。所以把所有這些放在一起，這就是貸款方面。

On the deposit side, it really started with a focus that began really prior to -- in the middle of the financial crisis and beyond where we said we're going to go for core checking accounts in consumer, primary checking accounts, drive customer satisfaction, drive organic growth and not care about the number of sales as much as the net growth in net sales. And as the team of Dean and Thong over time and then Aron and Holly now have continued to push that, adding 1 million-ish net new checking accounts, all core. We've gone from 60% core to 92%. We've gone from customer satisfaction to the highest levels ever in the mid-80s, top 2 box, et cetera, et cetera. Attrition down the lowest ever. Preferred Rewards kicked in.

在存款方面，它實際上是從金融危機中期之前就開始關注的，我們說我們將在消費者中建立核心支票帳戶，主要支票帳戶，提高客戶滿意度，推動有機增長，而不是像關心淨銷售額的淨增長那樣關心銷售數量。隨著 Dean 和 Thong 的團隊以及後來的 Aron 和 Holly 現在繼續推動這一目標，增加了 100 萬左右的淨新支票帳戶，而且都是核心帳戶。我們的核心率從 60% 上升到 92%。我們的客戶滿意度已經從 80 年代中期的最高水準上升到前 2 名，等等。人員流失率降至歷史最低。首選獎勵開始生效。

And all that has led to higher and higher balance retention per account and then also more accounts. And so we've probably grown in the consumer from, I think, around $300 billion at the beginning of 2010, '11 to now at $900 billion. Now there's economic growth and economy grows, but that's way outsized. And that's what's driven the real value of the deposit franchise. And then wealth management, again, after Merrill putting together and then driving that core aspects between the team there, has kept us up to $300 billion. That's from $200-and-something billion pre-pandemic and probably less than that, I think it was $200 billion at the time of the merger.

所有這些都導致​​每個帳戶的餘額保留率越來越高，然後帳戶數量也越來越多。因此，我認為我們的消費者規模可能從 2010 年 11 年初的 3,000 億美元左右增長到現在的 9,000 億美元。現在經濟在成長，但成長幅度太大了。這就是推動存款業務真正價值的原因。然後，在美林整合並推動團隊之間的核心方面之後，財富管理再次讓我們保持了 3000 億美元的規模。這是大流行前 200 億美元左右的數字，可能比這個數字還要少，我認為合併時是 2000 億美元。

So all these things are just part of it, and the GTS business investments that have driven those products. So that spread is high and growing again, which is kind of counterintuitive to the narrative that one of your colleagues mentioned earlier, which is leave aside all the quantitative tightening, all the interest rate and all the stuff that's supposed to happen. Quarter after quarter, we're now growing the amount of deposits over the top of the loans and the loans, hopefully, will kick back in and grow a little faster. But they still won't use a lot of those balances up, and so we feel very good about that position.

因此，所有這些都只是其中的一部分，而 GTS 業務投資則推動了這些產品的發展。因此，利差很高，而且再次成長，這與你的一位同事之前提到的敘述有點違反直覺，即拋開所有的量化緊縮、所有的利率和所有應該發生的事情。每個季度，我們現在的存款額都在增加，超過了貸款額，希望貸款能回升並成長得更快一些。但他們仍然不會使用大量的餘額，所以我們對這個位置感覺非常好。

And those deposits, as you can see on the bottom of Page 8 on the left-hand side, all-in cost is 193 basis points against the Fed funds rate, the 5.5%. And the rate of change in those deposit prices have flattened out to be very modest linked quarter, and that's just a tremendous leverage for the company.

正如您在第 8 頁底部左側看到的那樣，這些存款的總成本相對於聯邦基金利率 5.5% 而言為 193 個基點。這些存款價格的變化率已經趨於平緩，與季度掛鉤的水平非常溫和，這對公司來說是一個巨大的槓桿。

Very helpful, Brian. Maybe as a follow-up, I think, Alastair, you pointed too that your CET1 ratio is if Basel III endgame went in as originally proposed, you're very comfortable with it. Can you guys share with us what's the latest? We all read about the watering down of Basel III endgame. Do you guys have a sense when you may actually see a final proposal? And could it kick into next year possibly?

非常有幫助，布萊恩。也許作為後續行動，我想，阿拉斯泰爾，你也指出，你的 CET1 比率是，如果巴塞爾 III 的最後階段按照最初的提議進行，你對此感到非常滿意。大家可以跟我們分享最新消息嗎？我們都讀到巴塞爾協議 III 殘局的淡化。當你們真正看到最終提案時，你們有感覺嗎？它可能會持續到明年嗎？

Look, we don't have an update on the timing yet, Gerard. We're in the same place you are. We're kind of waiting for the rules to come out. And we're still listening for updates from the Fed chair and the vice chair, and we'll wait until we see those come out.

傑拉德，我們還沒有關於時間安排的最新消息。我們和你在同一個地方。我們正在等待規則的出台。我們仍在聽取聯準會主席和副主席的最新消息，我們將等待這些消息的發布。

But the key is that we're sitting, even under the current interpretation we told you earlier on about any modifications, we're sitting on enough CET1 nominal amount, $197 billion. That exceeds what we did for the increase in RWA under the current version of the rules they propose. Anything that changes in that would be positive throughout. So we don't need to retain capital to meet those standards. We don't -- so we're off and running.

但關鍵是，即使根據我們之前告訴您的任何修改的當前解釋，我們仍然坐擁足夠的 CET1 名義金額，即 1,970 億美元。這超出了我們根據他們提議的當前版本規則增加 RWA 所做的努力。任何改變都會永遠是正面的。因此，我們不需要保留資本來滿足這些標準。我們不這樣做——所以我們就出發了。

We'll take that question from Jim Mitchell of Seaport Global.

我們將回答 Seaport Global 的吉姆·米切爾 (Jim Mitchell) 提出的這個問題。

Maybe just one last follow-up on that last question from Gerard. If Basel III is reduced, as Powell suggested, is it with limited loan growth just more likely to be put towards buybacks? Or do you see opportunities beyond just loan growth, whether it's building -- growing the trading balance sheet or other opportunities to deploy that capital to drive growth? Just curious how you deploy that.

也許只是傑拉德最後一個問題的最後一個後續行動。如果像鮑威爾建議的那樣，巴塞爾協議 III 減少，那麼貸款成長有限的情況下是否更有可能用於回購？或者您看到了貸款成長以外的機會，無論是建立、擴大交易資產負債表還是部署資本來推動成長的其他機會？只是好奇你如何部署它。

Well, number one, our primary interest is to use the capital to support our customer businesses. So you've seen that happen in the markets business. As we said, it was one of the best quarters in a decade first quarters. That is a multiyear process of building up not only the balance sheet and capital committed to the business, but importantly also, the investment systems and technology and risk management and other things, if they continue to make money almost every trading day over the last several years. So that's where we'd like to use it, supporting that business, supporting loan business, supporting all the businesses.

嗯，第一，我們的主要興趣是利用資金來支持我們的客戶業務。所以你已經在市場業務中看到了這種情況的發生。正如我們所說，這是十年來最好的第一季之一。這是一個多年的過程，不僅要建立資產負債表和致力於業務的資本，而且重要的是，如果他們在過去幾個交易日幾乎每個交易日都繼續賺錢，那麼投資系統、技術和風險管理等也很重要。這就是我們想要使用它的地方，支持該業務，支持貸款業務，並支持所有業務。

The reality is, it's outside of the capital markets business, then you go to loan growth. And that -- and the kind of loan growth in mid-single digits, that doesn't eat a lot of the capital up. So that is just there to be returned. And so we got 2 basic phenomena. One is we storehoused a bunch of capital. If you think about the last few years between the changes in CCAR a few years ago, that changed the capital dimension then the proposed rules, and then now whatever happens with them. So they were sort of sitting in pandemic. Before that, we were sitting on a fair amount of capital. That should be released over time here.

現實情況是，它不屬於資本市場業務，那麼你就可以考慮貸款成長。而這種貸款成長在中個位數，並沒有消耗掉很多資本。所以這只是要返回的。所以我們得到了兩個基本現象。一是我們儲備了大量資金。如果你想想幾年前 CCAR 的變化，那就改變了資本維度，然後是擬議的規則，然後是現在發生的一切。所以他們有點處於流行病之中。在此之前，我們擁有相當數量的資本。隨著時間的推移，應該會在這裡發布。

And then secondly, the question will be what those rules are going forward. And then third would be what do you need to support the business, which again, that's our primary responsibility. But generally, that is a modest amount of capital. And so most of our desire is really deploying more expenses and technology investments, and we've gone from $3 billion to $3.8 billion in annual technology investments across the last couple of years, more branches. But that's more of an expense question than a capital question.

其次，問題是這些規則將如何發展。第三是你需要什麼來支持業務，這也是我們的主要責任。但一般來說，這是一筆不大的資本。因此，我們的大部分願望實際上是部署更多的開支和技術投資，過去幾年我們的年度技術投資從 30 億美元增加到 38 億美元，並開設了更多分支機構。但這更多的是費用問題，而不是資本問題。

All right. I think that's all Lee, correct? Okay. Why don't we wrap it up here? Thank you for your time and attention. This quarter marks another quarter of strong organic growth across every businesses, continued this quarter. Good fees and what we call fees and commissions in the wealth management business, investment banking and trading.

好的。我想這就是李，對嗎？好的。我們為什麼不把它包起來呢？感謝您的時間和關注。本季標誌著各業務又一個強勁有機成長的季度，延續本季的動能。財富管理業務、投資銀行和交易中的良好費用以及我們所說的費用和佣金。

NII continues to outperform what we told you last quarter for the quarter, first quarter. We rolled that into second quarter, and we expect continued performance in that as we go through the trough and meet the second half of the year. We continue to manage expenses well into the inflation rate, and we start with strong capital and liquidity and a strong balance sheet.

NII 在第一季的表現持續優於我們上季告訴您的情況。我們將其延續到第二季​​度，我們預計在度過低谷並迎接下半年時，我們將繼續保持這一表現。我們繼續在通貨膨脹率的影響下很好地管理開支，我們從強大的資本和流動性以及強大的資產負債表開始。

So we are -- the team did a great job this quarter, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you.

所以我們——團隊本季做得很好，我們期待下個季度與您交談。謝謝。

This does conclude the Bank of America earnings announcement. You may now disconnect. And everyone, have a great day.

美國銀行的獲利公告到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有美好的一天。