美國銀行 (BAC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Bank of America Earnings Announcement. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's call will be recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎來到美國銀行財報。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話將會被錄音。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's conference over to Lee McEntire, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興將今天的會議交給投資者關係部門的 Lee McEntire。請繼續。

Good morning. Thank you. Welcome, and thank you for joining the call to review the third quarter results. As usual, our earnings release documents are available on the Investor Relations section of the bankofamerica.com website, and it includes the earnings presentation that we will be referring to during the call. I trust everybody's had a chance to review the documents. I'm going to first turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Moynihan, for some opening comments before Alastair Borthwick, our CFO, discusses the details of the quarter.

早安.謝謝。歡迎並感謝您參加審查第三季業績的電話會議。與往常一樣，我們的收益發布文件可在 Bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分獲取，其中包括我們將在電話會議期間提及的收益演示。我相信每個人都有機會查看這些文件。在我們的財務長 Alastair Borthwick 討論本季的細節之前，我將首先將電話轉給我們的執行長 Brian Moynihan，徵求一些開場白。

Before we do that, let me just remind you that we may make forward-looking statements and refer to some non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause our actual results to materially differ from expectations are detailed in our earnings materials as well as the SEC filings available on our website. Information about non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to U.S. GAAP, can also be found in our earnings materials that are on the website.

在此之前，請容我提醒您，我們可能會在電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述並參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標。前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。我們的獲利資料以及我們網站上提供的 SEC 文件中詳細介紹了可能導致我們的實際結果與預期有重大差異的因素。有關非公認會計原則財務指標的信息，包括與美國公認會計原則的調節，也可以在我們網站上的收益材料中找到。

So with that, Brian, I'll turn the call over to you.

布萊恩，我會把電話轉給你。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. As usual, we're starting on Slide 2. Our third quarter here at Bank of America was another strong quarter as we delivered $7.8 billion in net income. That is a 10% growth over the year-ago third quarter. And for the first 9 months of the year, we have earned $23.4 billion, an increase of 15% over 2022.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們。像往常一樣，我們從幻燈片 2 開始。美國銀行第三季度又是一個強勁的季度，我們實現了 78 億美元的淨利潤。這比去年同期第三季成長了 10%。今年前 9 個月，我們的營收為 234 億美元，比 2022 年成長 15%。

We grew clients and accounts organically and at a strong pace across all our businesses. Our operating leverage was about flat. We improved our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio by nearly 30 basis points in the quarter to a level of 11.9% against a current minimum of 9.5%. We saw an increase in our deposits, and we maintained our strong pricing discipline. We continue to maintain $859 billion in global liquidity sources. We also delivered a good return for you, our shareholders, with a return on tangible common equity of over 15% and a 1% return on assets.

我們所有業務的客戶和帳戶都以強勁的步伐有機增長。我們的經營槓桿基本持平。本季我們將普通股一級資本比率提高了近 30 個基點，達到 11.9%，而目前的最低水準為 9.5%。我們的存款有所增加，並且保持了嚴格的定價紀律。我們持續維持 8,590 億美元的全球流動性來源。我們也為我們的股東帶來了良好的回報，有形普通股回報率超過 15%，資產回報率為 1%。

Just a quick note of what we see in the economy. Our team of economists predicts a soft landing with a trough in the middle of next year. We see that in our customer data, our 37 million checking customers, we see their spending slowing down. You can see that on Slide 34. The third quarter was up about 4% over last year's third quarter. Earlier this year, that would have been more of a 10% increase year-over-year. And for the entire year 2022, it increased 10% round numbers over '21.

簡單介紹一下我們在經濟中看到的情況。我們的經濟學家團隊預測，經濟將軟著陸，並在明年年中出現谷底。我們在客戶數據中看到，我們的 3,700 萬支票客戶的支出正在放緩。您可以在幻燈片 34 上看到這一點。第三季比去年第三季成長約 4%。今年早些時候，這一數字年增將超過 10%。 2022 年全年，比 21 年增加了 10%。

This 4% level is consistent with the spending we saw in the pre-pandemic period from 2016 to 2019. That is consistent with the low inflation, lower growth economy. As we move into October, the spending is holding at that 4% level; so growing, but growing at a basis more consistent with a low-growth, low-inflation economy.

這個4%的水準與我們在2016年至2019年大流行前所看到的支出是一致的。這與低通膨、低成長的經濟是一致的。隨著進入 10 月份，支出保持在 4% 的水平；如此成長，但成長的基礎更符合低成長、低通膨經濟。

With that, let me turn to Slide 3. We provide various highlights, and Alastair is going to cover a lot of this. Our team continues to focus on driving organic growth, driving digital progress and operational excellence, which keeps us focused on operating leverage.

接下來，讓我轉向幻燈片 3。我們提供了各種亮點，阿拉斯泰爾將介紹其中的許多內容。我們的團隊繼續專注於推動有機成長、推動數位化進步和卓越運營，這使我們能夠專注於營運槓桿。

A few words on organic growth as we flip to Slide 4. Every business segment had organic growth. In Consumer, in quarter 3, we opened more than 200,000 net new checking accounts this quarter alone. We also opened another 1 million credit card accounts. We had 10% more investment accounts this year, third quarter, than we did last year. In Small Business, we have seen 35 straight quarters of net new checking account growth. We've also seen good Small Business loan growth, and our loans were up 14% from last year. That was -- in this quarter, our Small Business teammates extended $2.8 billion in credit to small businesses in America alone.

當我們翻到投影片 4 時，簡單介紹一下有機成長。每個業務部門都有有機成長。在第三季的消費者業務中，光是本季我們就開設了超過 20 萬個淨新支票帳戶。我們還開設了另外100萬個信用卡帳戶。今年第三季度，我們的投資帳戶比去年增加了 10%。在小型企業中，我們看到新支票帳戶連續 35 個季度出現淨增長。我們也看到小型企業貸款的良好成長，我們的貸款比去年增加了 14%。也就是說，在本季度，我們的小型企業團隊成員僅向美國的小型企業提供了 28 億美元的信貸。

In Global Wealth, we added nearly 7,000 net new relationships to the Merrill and Private Banking franchises. And our advisers opened more than 35,000 new bank accounts for the third consecutive quarter, fulfilling both investing and banking needs for those clients. We also increased our number of advisers. In the past year, across our Wealth spectrum and GWIM and in Consumer investments, they have combined to gather $87 billion in total net flows.

在全球財富領域，我們為美林和私人銀行業務淨增加了近 7,000 個新關係網。我們的顧問連續第三個季度開設了超過 35,000 個新銀行帳戶，滿足了這些客戶的投資和銀行業務需求。我們也增加了顧問的數量。去年，我們的財富範圍、GWIM 以及消費者投資領域的總淨流量合計達到 870 億美元。

In our Global Banking team, we added clients and increased the number of products per relationship. Year-to-date, we've added 1,900 new commercial and business banking clients. That is more than we added in the full year last year. Even while activity is low, the Investment Banking team continues to hold its #3 position. In the Global Markets, we continue to see performance to establish new records for our firm. I'm going to cover that in a little more detail in a moment.

在我們的全球銀行團隊中，我們增加了客戶並增加了每個關係的產品數量。今年迄今，我們已新增 1,900 家商業銀行客戶。這比我們去年全年增加的還要多。即使活動較少，投資銀行團隊仍保持第三名的位置。在全球市場，我們繼續看到我們公司創造新記錄的表現。我稍後將更詳細地介紹這一點。

As you can move to Slide 5, you can see the digital adoption, engagement and volumes continue to increase. We lead the industry in digital banking and continue to provide the best-in-class disclosures. You can find those disclosures by line of business in the appendix on Slides 26, 29 and 31. We also continue to receive top accolades from third parties around these capabilities. Most important, these capabilities are valued by our clients and customers and allow us to grow with great expense leverage.

當您轉到投影片 5 時，您可以看到數位化採用、參與度和數量持續增加。我們在數位銀行領域處於行業領先地位，並繼續提供一流的資訊揭露。您可以在投影片 26、29 和 31 的附錄中按業務線找到這些揭露資訊。我們也繼續獲得第三方圍繞這些功能的最高讚譽。最重要的是，這些能力受到我們的客戶和顧客的重視，並使我們能夠以巨大的費用槓桿實現成長。

Let me give you a few examples. Our Consumer Merrill clients logged into our Consumer Banking app a record 3.2 billion times this quarter. Even at this scale and stage of maturity of this operation, log-ins were up double digits from the year prior. Customer use of Erica continue to beat our expectations with almost 19 million users, up 16% in the past 12 months. CashPro app sign-ins with our business clients are up more than 40%. And we recently added the Erica functionality to CashPro to help corporate clients benefit from that artificial intelligence.

讓我舉幾個例子。本季度，我們的 Consumer Merrill 客戶登入我們的消費者銀行應用程式的次數達到創紀錄的 32 億次。即使在該操作的規模和成熟階段，登入量也比前一年增長了兩位數。 Erica 的客戶使用量持續超出我們的預期，用戶數量接近 1,900 萬，在過去 12 個月中成長了 16%。我們的企業客戶的 CashPro 應用程式登入量增加了 40% 以上。我們最近在 CashPro 中添加了 Erica 功能，以幫助企業客戶從人工智慧中受益。

Likewise, Zelle users continues to grow. Zelle transaction levels are up more than 25% from last year, and Zelle is becoming a meaningful way our customers move money. In fact, customers now send money with Zelle at twice the rate they write checks. We're nearing a period where the Zelle transactions sent will exceed the combination of checks written and ATM withdrawal transactions.

同樣，Zelle 用戶也在持續成長。 Zelle 交易水準比去年增長了 25% 以上，Zelle 正在成為我們客戶轉移資金的一種有意義的方式。事實上，客戶現在透過 Zelle 匯款的速度是寫支票的兩倍。我們即將迎來這樣一個時期：發送的 Zelle 交易將超過開出的支票和 ATM 提款交易的總和。

As you move across the lines of business on this slide, the story is the same. All these capabilities help us deliver faster, safer and more efficiently, and all of it gets strong customer client feedback. When you put that together, that helps us drive operating leverage, and you can see that on Slide 6.

當您在這張投影片上瀏覽各個業務線時，情況都是一樣的。所有這些功能幫助我們更快、更安全、更有效率地交付，並且所有這些都得到了客戶的強烈回饋。當你把它們放在一起時，這有助於我們提高營運槓桿，你可以在投影片 6 中看到這一點。

We have a strong record of driving operating leverage in our company. We drove operating leverage every quarter for nearly 5 years before the pandemic. And then again, more recently, we've had an 8-quarter streak leading in this quarter. We acknowledged to you this last quarter that operating leverage is going to be tough for a few quarters as we navigate through the trough of net interest income.

我們在提高公司營運槓桿方面擁有良好的記錄。在疫情爆發之前的近 5 年裡，我們每季都會提高營運槓桿。最近，我們在本季連續 8 個季度領先。我們在上個季度向您承認，隨著我們度過淨利息收入的低谷，營運槓桿將在接下來的幾季中變得艱難。

But as you can see on Slide 6, we managed to grow our revenue year-over-year faster than expense in dollar terms this quarter, even though the percentage change is basically flat. Now in January, we told you we'd manage our headcount down to help make sure we got our expenses in line. Over the course of 2023, we've seen moving from 2022's great resignation to a current level of a record low attrition in our company.

但正如您在投影片 6 中看到的那樣，本季我們的營收年增率快於以美元計算的支出成長速度，儘管百分比變化基本上持平。一月份，我們告訴您，我們將減少員工人數，以確保我們的開支符合要求。在 2023 年期間，我們公司的員工流動率從 2022 年的大離職轉變為目前創紀錄的低水準。

All that meant the team had to work harder to manage that headcount down, and they did it. Our headcount is now down over 7,000 FTEs from our peak in January, even with the addition of 2,500 college grads this fall. As a result, you've seen expense decline from $16.2 billion in quarter 1 to $16 billion in quarter 2 to $15.8 billion this quarter. And by the way, we've done this without special charges or large layoffs.

所有這些都意味著團隊必須更加努力地減少人員數量，而他們做到了。儘管今年秋季增加了 2,500 名大學畢業生，但我們的 FTE 人數目前比 1 月的峰值減少了 7,000 多名。因此，您會看到費用從第一季的 162 億美元下降到第二季的 160 億美元，再到本季的 158 億美元。順便說一句，我們在沒有特殊費用或大規模裁員的情況下做到了這一點。

Expense will decline again in the fourth quarter, excluding any FDIC special assessment, of course. We expect to report $15.6 billion in expenses in 4Q. Now interestingly, that is up only around 1% from fourth quarter of last year. This is a stronger expense guidance than we thought we could do earlier in the year and sets us up nicely for next year.

當然，不包括任何 FDIC 的特別評估，第四季的支出將再次下降。我們預計第四季的支出為 156 億美元。有趣的是，這一數字比去年第四季僅成長了 1% 左右。這是比我們今年早些時候想像的更強有力的支出指導，並為我們明年做好了良好的準備。

Shifting gears, let's focus on the balance sheet. Slide 7 shows the breakout of deposit trends on a weekly ending basis across the third quarter. We gave you this chart last quarter also. In the upper-left hand, you can see the trend of total deposits. We ended quarter 3 at $1.88 trillion, up from quarter 2 and better-than-industry results. What you should also note is the cost of these deposits. Our team has rewarded customers with higher rates for their investment or in cash, reinitiated deposit growth and grown share all with superior mix and cost.

換檔，讓我們專注於資產負債表。投影片 7 顯示了第三季以週結束的存款趨勢突破。上個季度我們也給了您這張圖表。在左上角，您可以看到總存款的趨勢。第三季末，我們的業績達到 1.88 兆美元，高於第二季度，並且優於產業業績。您還應該注意的是這些存款的成本。我們的團隊以更高的投資利率或現金獎勵客戶，重新啟動存款成長並增加份額，所有這些都以卓越的組合和成本實現。

You'll note that we're now paying 155 basis points all-in for deposits, which is up 31 basis points from last quarter. Best that you remember 2 things when you think about the deposits. The rate remains low relative to many because of the transactional nature of our deposit relationships with $565 billion in noninterest-bearing deposits. And you can see in the upper right alone, in low-interest and no-interest checking, there's $504 billion in Consumer.

您會注意到，我們現在總共支付 155 個基點的存款，比上季增加了 31 個基點。當您考慮存款時，最好記住兩件事。由於我們與 5,650 億美元無息存款之間的存款關係具有交易性質，因此利率相對於許多機構來說仍處於較低水平。僅在右上角，您就可以看到，在低息和無息支票中，消費者的價值為 5,040 億美元。

Secondly, remember the importance of the spread against the quarter's average Fed funds rate. This positions us very advantaged compared to past cycles because the transactional accounts in the current cycle are a much higher mix of Bank of America's deposits. I would also add that while we maintain discipline in deposit pricing, we pay competitive rates to customers with excess cash seeing higher yields across all the businesses. If rates fall, those particular products will see the rates come down also.

其次，請記住利差相對於當季平均聯邦基金利率的重要性。與過去的周期相比，這使我們非常有優勢，因為當前週期的交易帳戶中美國銀行存款的比例要高得多。我還想補充一點，雖然我們在存款定價方面保持紀律，但我們向擁有多餘現金的客戶支付具有競爭力的利率，這些客戶在所有業務中都獲得了更高的收益率。如果利率下降，這些特定產品的利率也會下降。

Dropping into the business trends. In Consumer, if you look at the top-right chart, you saw a $22 billion decline. Note the difference in the movement through the quarter between the balance of load and no-interest checking accounts and higher-yielding non-checking accounts. You could also see the low levels of our more rate-sensitive balance in Consumer investments and CD balances broken out. In total, we have $982 billion in Consumer deposits. In Consumer alone, this is $250 billion more than we had pre-pandemic.

融入商業趨勢。在消費者領域，如果您查看右上角的圖表，您會看到下降了 220 億美元。請注意本季負載和無利息支票帳戶餘額與高收益非支票帳戶餘額之間的差異。您還可以看到消費者投資和定期存款餘額中對利率更為敏感的餘額處於較低水平。我們總共擁有 9,820 億美元的消費者存款。光是消費者方面，比疫情大流行前就多了 2500 億美元。

The total rate paid on Consumer deposits in the quarter was 34 basis points. This remains very low, driven by the high percentage of transactional -- high-quality transaction accounts. Most of the quarter's rate increase is concentrated in CDs and Consumer investment deposits were about -- which are about 13% of the deposits.

本季消費者存款支付的總利率為 34 個基點。由於高比例的交易——高品質交易帳戶，這一數字仍然非常低。本季升息的大部分集中在存款證和消費者投資存款上，約佔存款的 13%。

Turning to Wealth Management, balances were flat. We saw a slowing in the previous quarterly trend of clients moving money from lower-yielding sweep accounts into higher-yielding preferred deposits and off-balance sheet products. Sweep balances were down by $7 billion and replaced by new account generation and deepening.

轉向財富管理，餘額持平。我們發現，上一季客戶將資金從收益較低的綜合帳戶轉移到收益較高的優先存款和表外產品的趨勢有所放緩。轉款餘額減少了 70 億美元，取而代之的是新帳戶的產生和深化。

At the bottom right, note the Global Banking deposits grew $2 billion and have hovered around $500 billion for the past 6 quarters. These are generally the transaction deposits of our commercial customers used to manage their cash flows. Noninterest-bearing deposits were 37% of deposits at the end of the quarter.

請注意右下角，全球銀行存款增加了 20 億美元，過去 6 個季度一直徘徊在 5,000 億美元左右。這些通常是我們的商業客戶用於管理其現金流的交易存款。截至本季末，無息存款佔存款的 37%。

Sticking with the balance sheet but moving to capital, let me give you a few thoughts on the proposed capital rules. As you are well aware, our banking industry in the United States is the most highly capitalized and the most profitable banking group in the world. It's a source of strength for our country and its economy. The annual stress test over -- now over 12 years old, using ever increasingly harsher test scenarios, have proven that capital is sufficient.

堅持資產負債表，但轉向資本，讓我給你一些關於擬議資本規則的想法。眾所周知，美國的銀行業是全球資本最雄厚、獲利能力最強的銀行集團。它是我們國家及其經濟的力量來源。年度壓力測試已經結束，至今已超過 12 年，使用越來越嚴格的測試場景，已經證明資本是充足的。

Banks have proven to be a part of the solution during the more recent COVID pandemic and the banking disruption in March this year. We add to our capital and reduce our lending capacity to American business consumers, and those trade-offs are being debated. But as far as the rules are concerned, there are many parts of the rules that our industry doesn't agree with because of double accounts or increased trading and market risk. And we're talking to those proposals of working, and we're hopeful they'll change.

事實證明，在最近的新冠疫情大流行和今年 3 月的銀行業中斷期間，銀行是解決方案的一部分。我們增加了資本並減少了對美國商業消費者的貸款能力，這些權衡正在引起爭論。但就規則而言，由於重複帳戶或交易和市場風險增加，規則中有很多部分是我們行業不同意的。我們正在討論這些工作建議，我們希望它們能夠改變。

But in any event, they may not. And if they don't, how will they affect us? If you go to Slide 8, you can show the expected impact that was interpreted in those proposed rules. This assumes that they're proposed today without any changes. The proposed rules would inflate our risk-weighted assets by about 20%. So if I apply the inflation against this quarter's RWA of $1.63 trillion, that means if nothing else changes in the rules, we'd end up with about $320 billion more risk-weighted assets.

但無論如何，他們可能不會。如果他們不這樣做，他們將如何影響我們？如果您轉到投影片 8，您可以顯示這些建議規則中解釋的預期影響。這假設它們是今天提出的，沒有任何更改。擬議的規則將使我們的風險加權資產膨脹約 20%。因此，如果我將通貨膨脹與本季 1.63 兆美元的 RWA 相比較，這意味著如果規則沒有其他變化，我們最終將獲得約 3,200 億美元的風險加權資產。

The biggest increase in RWA would be a couple of hundred billion dollars in operational RWA. The next biggest category would be driven by a four-fold increase in the RWA against non-publicly traded equity exposures. In our case, that really is mostly about the tax-advantaged investments in solar and wind.

RWA 的最大增幅將是營運 RWA 的數千億美元。下一個最大的類別將由 RWA 相對於非公開交易股票部位成長四倍所推動。就我們而言，這實際上主要是關於太陽能和風能的稅收優惠投資。

Looking at the capital to be held against the inflated RWA on the right side of the slide, I'd remind you today that our minimum capital requirement is to hold 9.5% in Common Equity Tier 1. But based on our G-SIB charges that are going to come in effect on January 1, 2024, we move to 10%. So I'm going to use that as a requirement. Holding 10% today means $163 billion, that we finished the third quarter with $194 billion. So today, we have more than $30 billion excess capital.

看看幻燈片右側針對膨脹的 RWA 所持有的資本，我今天提醒您，我們的最低資本要求是持有 9.5% 的普通股一級資本。但根據我們的 G-SIB 收費，將於2024年1 月1 日生效，我們調整為10%。所以我將把它作為一個要求。今天持有 10% 意味著 1,630 億美元，第三季結束時我們的收入為 1,940 億美元。因此，今天我們擁有超過 300 億美元的過剩資本。

Now let's assume the proposed change is going through in full. Those proposed changes are phased in from '25 -- the middle of '25 to '28 under the current proposal. When those are fully phased in, as we used to call Basel fully phased-in if you remember, we would have a need for $195 billion of total capital. Now if you look on the upper right-hand side of this page, you'll see that we're today we're at $194 billion.

現在讓我們假設擬議的變更正在全面實施。根據目前提案，這些擬議的變更將從 25 年中期到 28 年分階段實施。當這些完全逐步實施時（如果您還記得的話，我們過去稱之為巴塞爾全面逐步實施），我們將需要 1,950 億美元的總資本。現在，如果您查看本頁的右上角，您會發現我們今天的市值為 1,940 億美元。

So we hold the required capital today. And of course, we'd have to build a buffer to that throughout the implementation period. But if you look at the bottom of the page, you can see just in the last 9 quarters the kind of capital generation this company has. Once we understand the final rules, we'll of course have a chance to optimize our balance sheet and appropriately price assets to improve the return on tangible common equity.

所以我們今天持有所需的資本。當然，我們必須在整個實施期間建立一個緩衝區。但如果你看一下頁面底部，你可以看到這家公司在過去 9 個季度的資本產生情況。一旦我們了解了最終規則，我們當然就有機會優化我們的資產負債表並適當地定價資產，以提高有形普通股的回報率。

Now before I turn it over to Alastair, I just wanted to highlight one of the businesses that we talked about over the many years, that's our Global Markets business. Global Markets represent 17% of the company's year-to-date earnings, and it's one of the top capital markets platforms in the world. It's one of a handful of firms that can do what is due, providing advice and execution in every major market around the world.

現在，在我將其交給阿拉斯泰爾之前，我只想強調我們多年來談論的業務之一，那就是我們的全球市場業務。全球市場佔該公司今年迄今收益的 17%，是全球頂級資本市場平台之一。它是少數能夠做應有的事情的公司之一，在全球每個主要市場提供建議和執行。

Jimmy DeMare and the team who run the business asked us for an additional investment around 4 years ago, and they've grown this business with an intensity that clients are appreciative and rewarded us with more of the business. This has produced strong revenue growth. We've grown the balance sheet here but have done it efficiently. That's allowed us to grow sales and trading revenue over the past 12 months consistently and now stands 32% higher than the average of the 5 years leading into the pandemic and the investment in the business.

大約 4 年前，吉米·德馬爾 (Jimmy DeMare) 和經營該業務的團隊要求我們追加投資，他們大力發展這項業務，得到了客戶的讚賞，並為我們提供了更多的業務回報。這帶來了強勁的收入成長。我們在這裡擴大了資產負債表，而且做得很好。這使我們能夠在過去 12 個月中持續成長銷售和交易收入，目前比疫情爆發前 5 年的平均水準和業務投資高出 32%。

And through effective cost management, we also generated 11% to 12% returns on capital in this business. This exceeds our cost of capital even as we continue to allocate more capital to the business. Returns are even larger if you combine it with the Global Banking business that many show the businesses combined and take -- because our corporate clients also take advantage of these industry-leading capabilities.

透過有效的成本管理，我們也在這項業務中產生了 11% 至 12% 的資本回報率。即使我們繼續向業務分配更多資本，這也超出了我們的資本成本。如果將其與許多顯示業務合併和採取的全球銀行業務結合起來，回報會更大——因為我們的企業客戶也利用這些行業領先的能力。

With that, let me turn over the call to Alastair to walk through the quarter. Alastair?

接下來，讓我把電話轉給阿拉斯泰爾，讓他介紹這個季度。阿拉斯泰爾？

Thanks, Brian. And on Slide 10, we present the summary income statement. I'm not going to spend a lot of time here because Brian touched on this and the highlights that we show on Slide 3.

謝謝，布萊恩。在投影片 10 上，我們展示了損益表摘要。我不會在這裡花很多時間，因為 Brian 談到了這一點以及我們在幻燈片 3 上展示的亮點。

For the quarter, we generated $7.8 billion in net income, resulting in $0.90 per diluted share. Both of those are up double digits from the third quarter of last year. The year-over-year revenue growth of 3% was led by improvement in net interest income, coupled with a strong 8% increase in sales and trading results, and that excludes DVA, and a 4% increase in investment and brokerage revenue driven by our wealth management businesses.

本季度，我們產生了 78 億美元的淨利潤，攤薄後每股收益為 0.90 美元。這兩個數字都比去年第三季成長了兩位數。營收年增 3%，主要得益於淨利息收入的改善，加上銷售和交易業績強勁增長 8%（不包括 DVA），以及投資和經紀收入增長 4%。我們的財富管理業務。

Expense for the quarter of $15.8 billion included good discipline from our team, which allowed us to reduce costs from the second quarter even as we continue our planned investments for marketing, technology and physical presence build-outs, including financial center openings and renovations. Asset quality remains stellar, and provision expense for the quarter was $1.2 billion. That consisted of $931 million of net charge-offs and $303 million of reserve build.

本季 158 億美元的支出包括我們團隊的良好紀律，這使我們能夠從第二季開始降低成本，同時我們繼續計劃對行銷、技術和實體設施建設（包括金融中心開業和翻修）進行投資。資產品質依然出色，本季撥備費用為 12 億美元。其中包括 9.31 億美元的淨沖銷和 3.03 億美元的儲備金建設。

The provision expense reflects the continued trend in charge-offs toward pre-pandemic levels and remains below historical levels. Our charge-off rate was 35 basis points. That's 2 basis points higher than the second quarter and still below the 39 basis points we saw in the fourth quarter of '19. And as a reminder, that 2019 was a multi-decade low. 30-day delinquencies also remained below their fourth quarter '19 level.

撥備支出反映了沖銷向大流行前水準的持續趨勢，且仍低於歷史水準。我們的沖銷率為 35 個基點。這比第二季高 2 個基點，但仍低於 19 年第四季的 39 個基點。提醒一下，2019 年是幾十年來的最低點。 30 天拖欠率也低於 19 年第四季的水準。

Lastly, our tax rate this quarter was 4%, driven mostly by higher-than-expected volume of investment tax credit or ITC deals for the rest of the year. And we can expect other income in Q4 will reflect seasonally higher renewables investment losses when these projects get placed into service.

最後，我們本季的稅率為 4%，這主要是由於今年剩餘時間的投資稅收抵免或 ITC 交易量高於預期。我們可以預期，當這些項目投入使用時，第四季度的其他收入將反映出季節性較高的再生能源投資損失。

Okay. Let's turn to the balance sheet, that's on Slide 11. And you can see it ended the quarter at $3.2 trillion, up $31 billion from the second quarter, so not a lot to note here. The driver of the increase was a $34 billion increase in available-for-sale securities. With cash levels so high, we chose to reduce the cash and just put some of the money into short-term T-bills this quarter, and those are on essentially the same rate as cash. Our cash remains high at $352 billion.

好的。讓我們看一下投影片 11 上的資產負債表。您可以看到本季末的資產負債表為 3.2 兆美元，比第二季增加了 310 億美元，因此這裡沒有太多值得注意的地方。成長的推動因素是可供出售證券增加 340 億美元。由於現金水準如此之高，我們選擇減少現金，只在本季將部分資金投入短期國債，而這些資金的利率基本上與現金相同。我們的現金仍然高達 3520 億美元。

In addition to the cash level change, we saw another $11 billion decline in hold-to-maturity securities as those securities matured and paid down. And as Brian noted, global excess liquidity sources remained strong at $859 billion, that's down very modestly from the second quarter and still remains approximately $280 billion above our pre-pandemic fourth quarter '19 level.

除了現金水準的變化之外，隨著持有至到期證券的到期和償還，我們還看到這些證券又減少了 110 億美元。正如布萊恩指出的那樣，全球過剩流動性來源仍然強勁，達到 8590 億美元，比第二季度小幅下降，但仍比大流行前 2019 年第四季度的水平高出約 2800 億美元。

Shareholders' equity increased $4 billion from the second quarter as earnings were only partially offset by capital distributed to shareholders. During the quarter, we paid out $1.9 billion in common dividends, and we bought back $1 billion in shares to offset our employee awards. AOCI was $1.1 billion lower, reflecting both a modest decline in the value of AFS securities, modestly impacting CET1 as well as a small change in cash flow hedges, which doesn't impact the regulatory capital. Tangible book value per share is up 12% year-over-year.

股東權益比第二季增加了 40 億美元，因為收益僅分配給股東的資本部分抵銷。本季度，我們支付了 19 億美元的普通股息，並回購了 10 億美元的股票以抵消我們的員工獎勵。 AOCI 下降了 11 億美元，反映了 AFS 證券價值的小幅下降（對 CET1 產生了小幅影響）以及現金流對沖的小幅變化（這不會影響監管資本）。每股有形帳面價值年增 12%。

Turning to regulatory capital. Our CET1 level improved to $194 billion from June 30, and our CET1 ratio improved 30 basis points to 11.9%. It's now well above our current 9.5% requirement, as Brian noted. Risk-weighted assets declined modestly as loans and Global Markets RWA both moved lower. Our supplemental leverage ratio was 6.2% versus a minimum requirement of 5%, which leaves capacity for balance sheet growth, and our TLAC ratio remains well above our requirements. LCR ratios remain well above minimums for BAC metrics and stronger at the bank level.

轉向監管資本。自 6 月 30 日起，我們的 CET1 水準提高至 1,940 億美元，我們的 CET1 比率提高了 30 個基點，達到 11.9%。正如 Brian 指出的，它現在遠高於我們目前 9.5% 的要求。隨著貸款和全球市場風險加權資產雙雙走低，風險加權資產小幅下跌。我們的補充槓桿率為 6.2%，而最低要求為 5%，這為資產負債表成長留下了空間，而且我們的 TLAC 比率仍然遠高於我們的要求。 LCR 比率仍遠高於 BAC 指標的最低值，且在銀行層級更為強勁。

Let's now focus on loans by looking at average balances on Slide 12. And loan growth slowed this quarter as a decline in demand for commercial borrowing more than offset our credit card growth. So we saw that lower commercial demand in lower revolver utilization among higher funding costs. And commercial balances were also impacted by term loan repayments due to borrowers accessing other capital market solutions.

現在讓我們透過查看投影片 12 上的平均餘額來關注貸款。本季貸款成長放緩，因為商業借貸需求的下降遠遠抵消了信用卡成長的影響。因此，我們看到商業需求下降、左輪手槍利用率下降、融資成本上升。由於借款人使用其他資本市場解決方案，商業餘額也受到定期貸款償還的影響。

Focusing for a moment on average deposits and using Slide 13. Given Brian's earlier comments, I'd just note the comparisons. Relative to pre-pandemic fourth quarter '19, average deposits are up 33%. Consumer is up 36% with consumer checking up 45%. And you can see the other segment comparisons on the page.

暫時關注平均存款並使用幻燈片 13。考慮到 Brian 之前的評論，我只想記下比較。與大流行前的 2019 年第四季相比，平均存款增加了 33%。消費者成長了 36%，其中消費者檢查成長了 45%。並且您可以在頁面上看到其他細分的比較。

Turning to Slide 14, let's extend the conversation we've been having over the course of the past couple of quarters around management of our excess liquidity. This slide serves as a reminder of the size of our high-quality deposit book, the magnitude of deposits we have in excess of those needed to fund loans and the way we've extracted the value of that excess to deliver value back to our shareholders.

轉向投影片 14，讓我們擴展過去幾季圍繞管理過剩流動性的對話。這張投影片提醒我們高品質存款簿的規模、我們擁有的超過貸款所需存款的金額以及我們提取超額部分價值以將價值回饋給股東的方式。

The excess of deposits needed to fund loans increased from $420 billion pre-pandemic to a peak of $1.1 trillion in the fall of 2021. And as you can see, it remains high at $835 billion today. That $1.1 trillion of excess liquidity has always included a balanced mix of cash, available-for-sale securities and securities we hold to maturity. In late 2020 and into 2021, we concluded that additional stimulus was going to remain in client accounts for an extended period, and we increased the hold-to-maturity securities portion so we could lock in value from those deposits. And we made these investments given the core nature of our customers' deposits.

為貸款提供資金所需的超額存款從大流行前的 4,200 億美元增加到 2021 年秋季的 1.1 兆美元峰值。正如您所看到的，今天仍處於 8,350 億美元的高位。這 1.1 兆美元的過剩流動性始終包括現金、可供出售證券和我們持有至到期的證券的均衡組合。從 2020 年底到 2021 年，我們得出的結論是，額外的刺激措施將在客戶帳戶中保留較長一段時間，因此我們增加了持有至到期證券部分，以便我們可以鎖定這些存款的價值。鑑於客戶存款的核心性質，我們進行了這些投資。

Note the split of the shorter-term investments in cash and available-for-sale securities and then the longer-term hold-to-maturity securities. And I'd just draw your attention to just how much cash we have above the actual level we need to run the company. On the available for sale, we would just note the duration is less than 6 months as it's mostly all short-term treasuries. And the combination of the cash and available-for-sale securities represents about 47% of the total noted on this page in the third quarter of '23 to give us the balance we're looking for.

請注意現金和可供出售證券的短期投資以及持有至到期證券的長期投資的劃分。我只想提請您注意我們擁有的現金數量超出了我們營運公司所需的實際水平。對於可供出售的國債，我們只注意到期限少於 6 個月，因為它大部分都是短期國債。現金和可供出售證券的總和約佔 23 年第三季本頁所示總額的 47%，這為我們提供了我們正在尋找的餘額。

And if we look at the hold-to-maturity book, it had grown from $190 billion pre-pandemic, peaking 2 years ago, and now falling to just over $600 billion currently. That $600 billion consists of about $122 billion in treasuries, those will mature in a little more than 6 years; and about $474 billion in mortgage-backed securities and a few billion other. Now hold-to-maturity securities peaked at $683 billion, and we're now down $80 billion from the peak and $11 billion in the last quarter. That $80 billion decline from peak was all driven by the reduction of mortgages from $555 billion to $474 billion.

如果我們看一下持有至到期的帳簿，它已經從大流行前的 1900 億美元增長到兩年前的峰值，現在下降到目前的略高於 6000 億美元。這 6,000 億美元包括約 1,220 億美元的國債，這些國債將在 6 年多一點的時間內到期；以及約 4,740 億美元的抵押貸款支持證券和數十億美元的其他證券。現在持有至到期證券的峰值為 6,830 億美元，較高峰減少了 800 億美元，上季減少了 110 億美元。與高峰相比下降 800 億美元的原因全部是抵押貸款從 5,550 億美元減少到 4,740 億美元。

With less loan funding needs over the past several quarters, the proceeds from security paydowns have been deployed into higher-yielding cash, and this mix shift has been happening at about a 300 basis point spread benefit for these assets. Given the increased cash rates, the combined cash and security yield has risen now to more than 3%. It's up more than 200 basis points since the peak size of the portfolio in the third quarter of '21, and it's risen faster than the rate paid on deposits. In fact, today, it's 178 basis points above what we pay for deposits. And remember also, we have $1 trillion of loans that are largely in floating rate in addition.

由於過去幾季貸款融資需求減少，安全支付收益已被部署到收益更高的現金中，這種組合轉變發生在這些資產的利差效益約為 300 個基點的情況下。鑑於現金利率上升，現金和證券的綜合收益率現已升至 3% 以上。自 21 年第三季投資組合規模達到高峰以來，該利率已上漲 200 多個基點，而且上漲速度超過了存款利率。事實上，今天，它比我們支付的存款高出 178 個基點。還要記住，我們還有 1 兆美元的貸款，其中大部分是浮動利率的。

From a valuation perspective, we did experience a decline in the valuation of the hold-to-maturity book this quarter, and that's in the context of mortgage rates reaching a 2-decade high. Comparing the valuation change to the year-ago period, it worsened $15 billion. And over that same time period, we grew regulatory capital by $19 billion and hold global liquidity sources in excess of $850 billion.

從估值角度來看，本季我們確實經歷了持有至到期帳簿估值的下降，而且這是在抵押貸款利率達到20年來高點的背景下。與去年同期相比，估值變化惡化了 150 億美元。同一時期，我們的監管資本增加了 190 億美元，並持有超過 8,500 億美元的全球流動性來源。

And importantly, as we move to Slide 15, I'll make one final comment here, which is the improved NII over this investment period. The net interest income, excluding Global Markets, which we disclose each quarter, troughed in Q3 '20 at $9.1 billion. That compares to $13.9 billion in the third quarter of '23 or $4.7 billion higher every quarter on a quarterly basis, and that gives a sense of the entire balance sheet working together.

重要的是，當我們轉到幻燈片 15 時，我將在這裡做出最後的評論，即在此投資期間改進的 NII。淨利息收入（不包括我們每季揭露的全球市場）在 20 年第三季跌至 91 億美元。相比之下，23 年第三季為 139 億美元，每季增加 47 億美元，給人一種整個資產負債表協同運作的感覺。

Okay. Let's now turn our focus to NII performance over the past quarter, and we'll talk about the path forward, and I'm going to use Slide 15 for that. On last quarter's call, we guided to expect Q3 NII to be about $14.2 billion to $14.3 billion on an FTE basis. Our third quarter performance turned out to be better than our guidance. And on an FTE basis, NII was $14.5 billion this quarter. We expect Q4 will be around $14 billion fully taxable equivalent, and that increases our full year guidance for NII in 2023 versus 2022 to 9% growth per year.

好的。現在讓我們將注意力轉向過去季度的 NII 表現，我們將討論前進的道路，我將使用幻燈片 15。在上季的電話會議上，我們預計第三季的 NII 將按 FTE 計算約為 142 億至 143 億美元。我們第三季的業績好於我們的指導。以 FTE 計算，本季 NII 為 145 億美元。我們預計第四季度的全額應稅金額將約為 140 億美元，這使得我們對 2023 年 NII 的全年指引較 2022 年成長至 9%。

We believe NII will hover around this expected fourth quarter $14 billion level, plus or minus, in the first half of next year, and then we anticipate modest growth in the second half of 2024. By the time we get to the fourth quarter of 2024, we believe we can see NII up low single digits compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The good news is we believe NII will likely trough around the fourth quarter level of $14 billion and begin to grow again in the middle of next year.

我們認為，明年上半年，NII 將徘徊在預期第四季度 140 億美元的水平（上下浮動），然後我們預計 2024 年下半年將出現溫和增長。到 2024 年第四季度時，我們相信與2023 年第四季相比，NII 會出現較低的個位數成長。好消息是，我們相信NII 可能會在第四季觸底約140 億美元的水平，並在明年中期開始再次成長。

I'd note a few caveats around that forward view I just provided. It includes an assumption that interest rates in the forward curve materialize and it includes rate cuts for the second half of 2024. It also includes an expectation of modest loan and deposit growth as we move into the second half of 2024.

我想對我剛剛提供的前瞻性觀點提出一些注意事項。它包括遠期曲線利率實現的假設，以及 2024 年下半年的降息。它還包括進入 2024 年下半年時貸款和存款溫和增長的預期。

Focusing again on this quarter, $14.5 billion NII was an increase of nearly $700 million from the third quarter of '22, or 4%, while our net interest yield improved 5 basis points to 2.11%. The year-over-year improvement was driven by higher interest rates and partially offset by lower deposit balances. On a linked-quarter comparison, NII improved $239 million from Q2. That comes from the benefit of an extra day of interest, a rate hike and higher Global Markets NII, partially offset by increased deposit pricing. And the net interest yield improved 5 basis points.

再次關注本季度，145 億美元的NII 比2022 年第三季度增加了近7 億美元，即4%，而我們的淨利息收益率提高了5 個基點，達到2.11%。同比改善是由利率上升推動的，但部分被存款餘額下降所抵消。與季度相比，NII 比第二季增加了 2.39 億美元。這來自於額外一天的利息、升息和全球市場NII上升帶來的好處，但部分被存款定價上漲所抵消。淨利息收益率提高5個基點。

Turning to asset sensitivity and focused on a forward yield curve basis, the plus 100 basis point parallel shift at September 30 was $3.1 billion of expected NII benefit over the next 12 months from our banking book. And that expects -- or that assumes no expected change in balance sheet levels or mix relative to our baseline forecast, and 95% of the sensitivity is driven by short rates. The 100 basis point down rate scenario was $3.3 billion.

轉向資產敏感性並專注於遠期殖利率曲線基礎，9 月 30 日的平行移動加 100 個基點意味著未來 12 個月我們銀行帳戶的預期 NII 收益為 31 億美元。這是預期的，或者假設資產負債表水準或組合相對於我們的基準預測沒有預期的變化，並且 95% 的敏感性是由短期利率驅動的。利率下調 100 個基點的情境為 33 億美元。

Okay. Let's turn to expense, and we'll use Slide 16 for the discussion. We previously highlighted that we guided you to a trend of sequential declines in our expense each quarter this year, and we achieved that in Q3 with our expense down $200 million to $15.8 billion. Additionally, we expect the fourth quarter to go down another couple of hundred million to $15.6 billion, excluding any FDIC special assessment.

好的。讓我們轉向費用，我們將使用幻燈片 16 進行討論。我們之前強調過，我們引導您看到今年每個季度我們的費用連續下降的趨勢，我們在第三季度實現了這一目標，我們的費用下降了 2 億美元，達到 158 億美元。此外，我們預計第四季將再減少數億美元，至 156 億美元（不包括 FDIC 的任何特別評估）。

That would mean our fourth quarter expense of $15.6 billion, compared to the fourth quarter of '22, would be up by only $100 million or less than 1%. And we're proud of that work by the team, especially considering our regular FDIC insurance expense alone increased by $125 million quarterly starting in the first quarter of this year. So without that, we would be flat year-over-year in Q4.

這意味著我們第四季的支出為 156 億美元，與 22 年第四季相比，僅增加了 1 億美元或不到 1%。我們為團隊所做的工作感到自豪，特別是考慮到從今年第一季開始，我們的常規 FDIC 保險費用每季增加了 1.25 億美元。因此，如果沒有這一點，我們第四季的業績將與去年同期持平。

The decline this quarter from the second was driven by the reduction in litigation expense and lower headcount, offset somewhat by investments and inflationary costs. Our headcount is down nearly 2,800 from the second quarter to 213,000, and that includes the addition of 2,500-or-so full-time campus hires we brought into the company. So that's good work by the team after we peaked at 218,000 in January month end. And you see the movement here across the past year at the bottom left of the slide.

本季較第二季下降的原因是訴訟費用減少和員工人數減少，但投資和通膨成本在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。我們的員工人數比第二季減少了近 2,800 人，降至 213,000 人，其中包括我們為公司引進的約 2,500 名全職校園員工。因此，在 1 月底達到 218,000 人的峰值後，這是團隊的出色工作。您可以在幻燈片左下角看到過去一年的變化。

As we look forward to next quarter, we'd add $1.9 billion of expense for the proposed notice of special assessment from the FDIC as a possibility. Absent that, we'd expect our fourth quarter $15.6 billion expense target to more fully benefit from the third quarter headcount reductions, and that will allow expense to continue the decline experienced throughout the year so far. All of that is going to set us up well for next year.

當我們展望下個季度時，我們可能會為 FDIC 提議的特別評估通知增加 19 億美元的費用。如果沒有這一點，我們預計第四季 156 億美元的支出目標將更充分地受益於第三季員工人數的減少，這將使支出繼續全年迄今為止的下降趨勢。所有這些都將為我們明年做好準備。

Let's now turn to credit, and we'll turn to Slide 17. Net charge-offs of $931 million increased $62 million from the second quarter. The increase is driven by credit card losses as higher late-stage delinquencies flow through to charge-offs. For context, the credit card net charge-off rate rose 12 basis points to 2.72% in Q3, and it remains below the 3.03% pre-pandemic rate in the fourth quarter of '19. Provision expense was $1.2 billion in Q3, and that included a $303 million reserve build. It reflects a macroeconomic outlook that on a weighted basis continues to include an unemployment rate that rises to north of 5% during 2024.

現在讓我們轉向信貸，我們將轉向幻燈片 17。淨沖銷 9.31 億美元比第二季增加了 6,200 萬美元。這一增長是由信用卡損失推動的，因為後期拖欠率上升導致沖銷。就背景而言，信用卡淨沖銷率在第三季上升了 12 個基點，達到 2.72%，仍低於 2019 年第四季疫情爆發前的 3.03%。第三季撥備支出為 12 億美元，其中包括 3.03 億美元的儲備金建設。它反映了宏觀經濟前景，即在加權基礎上，2024 年失業率將繼續上升至 5% 以上。

On Slide 18, we highlight the credit quality metrics for both our Consumer and our Commercial portfolios. And on Consumer, we just note that we continue to see the asset quality metrics come off the bottom. And for the most part, they remain below historical averages. 30- and 90-day consumer delinquencies still remain below the fourth quarter of 2019, as an example.

在投影片 18 中，我們重點介紹了消費者和商業投資組合的信用品質指標。在消費者方面，我們只是注意到，我們繼續看到資產品質指標觸底。在大多數情況下，它們仍低於歷史平均值。例如，30 天和 90 天的消費者拖欠率仍低於 2019 年第四季。

Commercial net charge-offs declined from the second quarter, driven mostly by a reduction in office write-downs. And as a reminder, our CRE credit exposure represents 7% of total loans, and that includes office exposure, which represents less than 2% of our loans. We've been very intentional around client selection and portfolio concentration and deal structure over many years, and that's helped us to mitigate risk in this portfolio. We continue to believe that the portfolio is well positioned and adequately reserved against the current conditions.

商業淨沖銷較第二季下降，主要是因為辦公大樓沖銷減少。提醒一下，我們的 CRE 信貸風險佔貸款總額的 7%，其中包括辦公室風險，占我們貸款的不到 2%。多年來，我們一直非常注重客戶選擇、投資組合集中度和交易結構，這幫助我們降低了該投資組合的風險。我們仍然認為，該投資組合定位良好，並針對當前狀況做好了充分準備。

And in the appendix, we've included a current view of our commercial real estate and office portfolio stats we provided last quarter. We've also included the historical perspective of our loan book derisking and our net charge-offs, and you can see all of those on Slides 36, 37, 38 and 39.

在附錄中，我們提供了上季度提供的商業房地產和辦公大樓投資組合統計數據的當前視圖。我們還包括了貸款簿去風險和淨沖銷的歷史視角，您可以在幻燈片 36、37、38 和 39 中看到所有這些內容。

Okay. Let's move on to the various lines of business and their results, and I'm going to start on Slide 19 with Consumer Banking. For the quarter, Consumer earned $2.9 billion on good organic revenue growth and delivered its 10th consecutive quarter of operating leverage while we continue to invest for the future. Note that the top line revenue grew 6%, while expense rose 3%.

好的。讓我們繼續討論各個業務領域及其結果，我將從幻燈片 19 的消費者銀行業務開始。本季度，消費者業務憑藉良好的有機收入成長賺取了 29 億美元，並連續第 10 個季度實現營運槓桿，同時我們繼續對未來進行投資。請注意，總收入增加了 6%，而支出增加了 3%。

Reported earnings declined 7% year-over-year given credit costs continue to return to pre-pandemic level. And we believe this understates the underlying success of the business in driving revenue and managing costs because PPNR grew 9% year-over-year. Much of this success is driven by the pace of organic growth of checking and card accounts as well as investment accounts and balances, as Brian noted earlier. And expense reflects the continued investments by the business for their future growth.

鑑於信貸成本繼續恢復到疫情前的水平，報告收益年減 7%。我們認為，這低估了該業務在增加收入和管理成本方面取得的根本成功，因為 PPNR 年比成長了 9%。正如布萊恩早些時候指出的那樣，這種成功很大程度上是由支票和卡帳戶以及投資帳戶和餘額的有機增長速度推動的。費用反映了企業對其未來成長的持續投資。

Moving to Wealth Management on Slide 20. We produced good results, and we earned a little more than $1 billion. These results are down from last year due to a decline in NII from higher deposit costs, which more than offset higher fees from asset management. While lower this quarter, NII of $1.8 billion derives from a world-class banking offering, and it provides good balance in our revenue stream and a competitive advantage in the business for us.

前往投影片 20 上的財富管理。我們取得了良好的成果，賺取了略高於 10 億美元的收入。這些結果較去年有所下降，原因是存款成本上升導致NII下降，足以抵銷資產管理費用的上升。雖然本季較低，但 18 億美元的 NII 來自世界一流的銀行產品，它為我們的收入流提供了良好的平衡，並為我們提供了業務競爭優勢。

As Brian noted, both Merrill and the Private Bank continued to see strong organic growth, and they produced solid assets under management flows of $44 billion since the third quarter of last year, reflecting good mix of new client money as well as our existing clients putting their money to work. Expense reflects continued investments in the business as we add financial advisers and capabilities from technology investments.

正如布萊恩所指出的那樣，美林和私人銀行都繼續保持強勁的有機成長，自去年第三季以來，他們在管理流量下產生了440 億美元的堅實資產，反映出新客戶資金以及我們現有客戶資金的良好組合。他們的錢用來工作。費用反映了我們透過技術投資增加財務顧問和能力時對業務的持續投資。

On Slide 21, you see the Global Banking results. And this business produced very strong results with earnings of $2.6 billion, driven by 11% year-over-year growth in revenue to $6.2 billion. Coupled with good expense management, the business has produced solid operating leverage. Our GTS or Global Treasury Services business has been robust. We've also seen a steady volume of solar and wind investment projects this quarter, and our Investment Banking business is performing well in a sluggish environment.

在投影片 21 上，您可以看到全球銀行業的結果。該業務取得了非常強勁的業績，營收達 26 億美元，營收年增 11%，達到 62 億美元。加上良好的費用管理，該業務產生了堅實的營運槓桿。我們的 GTS（全球財務服務）業務一直很強勁。本季我們也看到太陽能和風能投資項目數量穩定，我們的投資銀行業務在低迷的環境中表現良好。

Year-over-year revenue growth also benefited from the absence of marks taken on leverage loans in the prior year-ago period. The company's overall investment banking fees were $1.2 billion in Q3, growing modestly over the prior year despite a pool that was down nearly 20%. And we held on to #3 position given our performance. Provision expense reflected a reserve release of $139 million as certain troubled industries and credits outside of commercial real estate continue to have improved outlooks. Expense increased 6% year-over-year, reflecting our continued investments in this business.

年比收入成長還得益於上年同期槓桿貸款沒有計分。第三季度，該公司的整體投資銀行費用為 12 億美元，儘管總費用下降了近 20%，但與前一年相比略有增長。鑑於我們的表現，我們保持了第三名的位置。撥備支出反映了由於某些陷入困境的行業和商業房地產以外的信貸前景繼續改善而釋放了 1.39 億美元的準備金。費用年增 6%，反映出我們對該業務的持續投資。

Switching to Global Markets on Slide 22, the team had another strong quarter with earnings growing to $1.3 billion, driven by revenue growth of 10%, and I'm referring to results excluding DVA as we normally do. The continued themes of inflation, geopolitical tensions and central banks changing monetary policies around the globe have continued to impact both bond and equity markets. And as a result, it was a quarter where we saw strong performance in our FICC trading businesses as well as a record third quarter in equities.

切換到幻燈片22 上的全球市場，該團隊又經歷了一個強勁的季度，在收入增長10% 的推動下，收益增長至13 億美元，我指的是像我們通常所做的那樣不包括DVA的結果。通貨膨脹、地緣政治緊張局勢和央行改變全球貨幣政策的持續主題繼續影響債券和股票市場。因此，在這個季度，我們的 FICC 交易業務表現強勁，股票第三季也創下了紀錄。

Focusing on sales and trading, ex DVA, revenue improved 8% year-over-year to $4.4 billion. FICC improved 6%, and equities improved 10% compared to the third quarter of last year. And at $1.7 billion, that's a record third quarter for our equities teammates. Year-over-year expense increased 7%, primarily driven by investments for people and technology.

專注於銷售和貿易（不包括 DVA），營收年增 8% 至 44 億美元。與去年第三季相比，FICC 成長了 6%，股票成長了 10%。對於我們的股票隊友來說，第三季的營收達到 17 億美元，創歷史新高。費用年增 7%，主要是由人員和技術投資推動的。

Finally, on Slide 13 (sic) [Slide 23], All Other shows a profit of $89 million. So revenue improved from the second quarter, driven by the absence of prior period debt security sale losses and available-for-sale securities, and partially offset by higher operating losses on tax credit investments in wind, solar and affordable housing. As I mentioned earlier, our effective tax rate in the quarter was 4%, and that reflects a higher-than-expected volume of investment tax credits in which the value of the deals are recognized upfront.

最後，在投影片 13（原文如此）[投影片 23] 上，「所有其他」顯示利潤為 8,900 萬美元。因此，由於沒有前期債務證券銷售損失和可供出售證券的推動，收入較第二季度有所改善，並且部分被風能、太陽能和經濟適用房稅收抵免投資的較高運營損失所抵消。正如我之前提到的，我們本季的有效稅率為 4%，這反映出投資稅收抵免額高於預期，其中交易價值已提前確認。

We also had a small discrete benefit to tax expense from a state tax law change. Excluding renewable investments and any other discrete tax benefits, our tax rate would have been 25%. And as we wrap up 2023, we expect our full year tax rate, excluding discrete and special items such as the FDIC special assessment, we expect that full year tax rate should end up in the 9% to 10% range.

我們也因州稅法的變化而對稅收支出產生了微小的好處。不包括再生能源投資和任何其他離散稅收優惠，我們的稅率為 25%。當我們結束 2023 年時，我們預計全年稅率（不包括 FDIC 特別評估等離散和特殊項目）預計全年稅率最終應在 9% 至 10% 的範圍內。

So to summarize, we grew our earnings double digit year-over-year. We reported NII that was above our expectations, and we increased our full year expectations. We've managed costs aligned with our guidance and brought expenses down in every quarter so far this year, and we expect to do that again in the fourth quarter. We earned more than 15% return on tangible common equity. We returned $2.9 billion in capital back to shareholders, including a 9% dividend increase. And we built 30 basis points of CET1, positioning us well for the proposed capital rules. So all in all, it was a strong quarter. It was one where our teams executed well against responsible growth.

總而言之，我們的營收年增了兩位數。我們報告的 NII 超出了我們的預期，並且我們提高了全年預期。今年到目前為止，我們已經按照我們的指導方針管理了成本，並降低了每個季度的費用，我們預計在第四季度再次做到這一點。我們獲得了超過 15% 的有形普通股回報率。我們向股東返還 29 億美元資本，其中股利增加了 9%。我們建立了 30 個基點的 CET1，為我們擬議的資本規則做好了準備。總而言之，這是一個強勁的季度。我們的團隊在負責任的成長方面表現出色。

And with that, David, I think we'll open it up for the Q&A session.

大衛，我想我們將開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) And we will take our first question from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

（操作員說明）我們將接受 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy 提出的第一個問題。

Brian, can you come back to your thoughts -- you're talking about the consumer spending holding at 4% right now, obviously, down from the very strong levels of a year or 2 years ago. When you look out and you mentioned how you guys are thinking the economy troughs in the middle of next year, do you think you could hold that 4% consumer spend? Do you think your consumers will hold that 4% spending number? Or could it actually deteriorate from here?

Brian，你能回到你的想法嗎——你說的是現在消費者支出保持在 4%，顯然，低於一年或兩年前的強勁水平。當你們展望未來並提到你們如何看待明年年中的經濟低谷時，你們認為你們能維持 4% 的消費者支出嗎？您認為您的消費者會維持 4% 的支出數字嗎？或者它真的會從這裡開始惡化嗎？

I think a couple of things, Gerard. One is the -- there's obviously external events, which could change the situation in the globe and dramatically. And so -- but given just the pathway that those -- that doesn't -- that kind of event doesn't take place, you think that the rate they're spending out now is consistent with a lower inflation. So embedded in our teams -- (inaudible) team's economic projections is a return to inflation, the 2% target at the end of '25. The rate structure, it comes down beginning in the middle of next year, but still stays around 4% at the end of '25.

我想有幾件事，傑拉德。一是——顯然有一些外部事件可能會極大地改變全球局勢。因此，但考慮到這些事件不會發生，你會認為他們現在的支出率與較低的通膨是一致的。因此，我們團隊的根深蒂固——（聽不清楚）團隊的經濟預測是通膨回歸，即 25 年底達到 2% 的目標。利率結構從明年年中開始下降，但到 25 年底仍維持在 4% 左右。

And so given that the economy -- the inflation is coming down, the economies would still be growing then and getting back towards trend growth, I think it would hold steady. And so it's been pretty steady, the month of August into September and October, at this 4%, 4.5%, 5% level. And that's kind of just people get paid more, they spend a little bit more and pricing goes up. And then you have the ebbs and flows within it, what they spend on.

因此，考慮到經濟——通貨膨脹正在下降，經濟仍將成長，並回到趨勢成長，我認為它將保持穩定。因此，從 8 月到 9 月和 10 月，一直保持在 4%、4.5%、5% 的水平。這就是人們得到更多的報酬，他們花更多的錢，價格上漲。然後你就會看到其中的潮起潮落，以及他們花在什麼上。

And right now, you've kind of seen all the adjustments that came through the pandemic into the last couple of years sort of adjust out of the system. What I mean by that is you had a lot of goods purchased, then you had a lot of travel and you had a lot of return-to-office spending. We can track that people buying stuff. All that's kind of leveled out of the system, including a drop in fuel prices and an increase. And basically, it's relatively bounce around about the same and they're spending about the same amount of money on gas that they spent last year.

現在，你已經看到了過去幾年因疫情而做出的所有調整，都在系統之外進行了調整。我的意思是你購買了很多商品，然後你進行了很多旅行，並且你有很多返回辦公室的支出。我們可以追蹤人們購買東西的情況。所有這些都在系統中趨於平衡，包括燃油價格的下降和上漲。基本上，它的相對反彈大致相同，他們在天然氣上花費的錢與去年相同。

So all that being said, in the big aggregate numbers, I think, yes, it could keep bumping along at that level, which is consistent of a low-inflation, low-growth economy and effectively shows the consumer has been brought more in line with the scenario of the Fed reaching their target. That's what we see. Now we'll take some time for all that to work through the system, and the retail sales number seems to be stronger today. But that will all shake through, but this is what they're doing at the moment.

話雖如此，從總體數據來看，我認為，是的，它可能會繼續在這個水平上波動，這與低通膨、低成長的經濟是一致的，並有效地表明消費者已經更加順從聯準會達到目標的情況。這就是我們所看到的。現在我們需要一些時間讓系統完成所有這些工作，而今天的零售銷售數字似乎更強勁。但這一切都會改變，但這就是他們目前正在做的事情。

Very good. And then as a follow-up question, you guys gave us good detail on Slide 8 about the potential changes coming from Basel III end game. And you showed us, obviously, the organic capital generation. Can you share with us possibly some of the mitigation strategies you might use? And specifically, if you could touch upon these changes for the equity investments, particularly in the alternative energy space. I guess they're going up from 100% RWAs to 400%. Would that change your thinking in that line of business as we go forward, should they stay in the final rules?

非常好。然後，作為後續問題，你們在幻燈片 8 上向我們詳細介紹了巴塞爾 III 最終遊戲的潛在變化。顯然，你向我們展示了有機資本的產生。您能否與我們分享一些您可能使用的緩解策略？具體來說，您是否可以談談股權投資的這些變化，特別是在替代能源領域。我猜他們的 RWA 將從 100% 上升到 400%。隨著我們的前進，這會改變您對該業務領域的想法嗎？它們是否應該保留在最終規則中？

So I think, number one, I think the first thing is there'll be -- at the end of November, the comments are due, there'll be comments by our company, by all the other companies, by industry participants, and then the staff at the Fed will have to sort through all that and think through what they all mean. And there'll be very rigorous points about our views of the wisdom of the changes, the need of the changes, the balance of the changes, the double accounting, all things that you've heard much about.

所以我認為，第一，我認為第一件事是——在 11 月底，評論到期，我們公司、所有其他公司、行業參與者都會發表評論，那麼美聯儲的工作人員將不得不整理所有這些內容並思考它們的意義。我們對變革的智慧、變革的必要性、變革的平衡、雙重會計以及所有你經常聽到的事情的看法都會有非常嚴格的觀點。

That being said, it is a little puzzling that you see some of the RWA increases for mortgage loans or for these types of investments in the environmental and housing and other spaces, which is sort of counter the policy that we want to do it. Now what would happen is we'd have to adjust the pricing, and it would become more expensive. It's been a great business for us. We continue to drive it. But ultimately, it have to go through the market if you have the equity cost go up by a fourfold increase to get the returns. And so think about a pricing model just increasing the amount of equity we have to dedicate, therefore, we have to get returns on that. And so that would happen.

話雖這麼說，但令人有點困惑的是，您看到抵押貸款或環境、住房和其他領域的此類投資的 RWA 有所增加，這在某種程度上與我們想要執行的政策背道而馳。現在會發生的事情是我們必須調整定價，而且它會變得更貴。這對我們來說是一筆偉大的生意。我們繼續推動它。但最終，如果你的股權成本增加四倍才能獲得回報，它就必須通過市場。因此，考慮一下定價模型，它只會增加我們必須投入的股本數量，因此，我們必須從中獲得回報。所以這就會發生。

It just seems a little counterintuitive that people would be doing that on a set of rules that basically, after the financial crisis, Dodd-Frank put in a set of rules and said here's how you count the RWA, without much evidence that this is an issue for companies because of the Volcker Rule and all the other stuff that are having issues of write-downs or changes here. And so the idea going up 4x seems odd to us from a public policy standpoint and also absent any evidence that this is an issue for the banking system.

人們會根據一套規則來這樣做，這似乎有點違反直覺，基本上，在金融危機之後，多德弗蘭克法案製定了一套規則，並說這是計算RWA 的方法，但沒有太多證據表明這是一個由於沃爾克規則和所有其他在這裡存在減記或變更問題的因素，這對公司來說是一個問題。因此，從公共政策的角度來看，上漲 4 倍的想法對我們來說似乎很奇怪，也沒有任何證據表明這對銀行系統來說是一個問題。

We'll take our next question from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

我們將回答 Seaport Global 的吉姆·米切爾 (Jim Mitchell) 提出的下一個問題。

Alastair, at a conference a month ago, you noted that if the Fed is done, you think deposit pricing is close to its peak, and I think you kind of talked us through that a little bit today. Some of your peers have been more fearful of a potential future material repricing in consumer savings, for example, from greater competition or further outflows. So -- and to be fair, they worried about that for a while and you've been more right. But can you just kind of discuss your thoughts on that and perhaps the outlook on deposit pricing in general?

阿拉斯泰爾，在一個月前的一次會議上，您指出，如果聯準會採取行動，您認為存款定價已接近峰值，我認為您今天已經向我們介紹了這一點。你的一些同行更擔心消費者儲蓄未來可能發生的物質重新定價，例如，由於競爭加劇或進一步外流。所以——公平地說，他們擔心這一點已經有一段時間了，你說得更對。但您能否談談您對此的看法以及存款定價的整體前景？

Yes. I mean, Jim, one of the things that I think gives us some confidence around NII troughing and then growing in the back half of next year is if you think we've seen the last Fed hike or you believe that the last Fed hike is a month from now or 2 months from now, then at some point, deposit pricing is going to stop going up. And there'll be a natural lag to that, that's pretty normal. And then what you see, if you look forward into the forward curve, is we've actually got Fed cuts, 3 of them, in the forward curve for next year.

是的。我的意思是，吉姆，我認為讓我們對NII 觸底並在明年下半年增長的信心的一件事是，如果您認為我們已經看到了美聯儲上次加息，或者您認為美聯儲上次加息是一個月後或兩個月後，在某個時候，存款價格將停止上漲。會有一個自然的滯後，這是很正常的。如果你展望遠期曲線，你會看到聯準會實際上已經在明年的遠期曲線中降息了 3 次。

So yes, we anticipate there will be some lag. I don't think we're any different than anyone else in that regard. But we're just pointing out that as we get towards peak rates, we're getting closer now so we can begin to see the end of that in terms of the later innings at this point. And the other thing just -- we always have to remind everyone of this is the deposits that we have are very relationship-based. They're -- a lot of them are core operating deposits where we've got the checking, they're thinking about the way we serve them in terms of digital. We've got preferred rewards program.

所以，是的，我們預計會有一些延遲。我不認為我們在這方面與其他人有什麼不同。但我們只是指出，當我們達到峰值速率時，我們現在已經越來越接近，因此我們可以開始在後面幾局中看到峰值的結束。另一件事是——我們總是必須提醒大家，我們擁有的存款是非常基於關係的。他們中的許多人都是我們有支票的核心營運存款，他們正在考慮我們在數位方面為他們提供服務的方式。我們有優先獎勵計劃。

And then on the Commercial side, very similar, we've got a lot of operating deposits all around the world, and they're using our world-class CashPro product. So there's a lot of relationship value here as well that we need to take into account. But fundamentally, we're just making a judgment that we're getting towards the top of the rate cycle here for Fed funds and then deposit pricing will sort out in the quarter or 2 following.

然後在商業方面，非常相似，我們在世界各地擁有大量營運存款，他們正在使用我們世界一流的 CashPro 產品。因此，這裡還有很多我們需要考慮的關係價值。但從根本上講，我們只是做出判斷，聯邦基金利率週期已接近頂峰，然後存款定價將在接下來的一兩個季度內解決。

All right. That's fair. Maybe given the thoughts that there's 3 rate cuts in the forward curve and you are asset sensitive, but yet you still expect growth or improving growth in NII in the back half, is that just sort of the lag effect there, too? Or is there something else going on in terms of rate cuts and the impact?

好的。這還算公平。也許考慮到遠期曲線有 3 次降息並且您對資產敏感，但您仍然預計後半段 NII 會增長或改善增長，這是否也是一種滯後效應？或者說在降息和影響力方面還有其他事情發生嗎？

Yes, I think the other things that we've got going on, especially as we get into the back half of the year, Consumer balances are going to find the floor at some point. They again are in the late innings of returning to sort of more normal pre-pandemic balances per account. So they're going to find the floor. And at that point, they're going to start growing, in the same way that Wealth has found the floor and in the same way that Global Banking found the floor a while ago and is now beginning to grow. So we have a point of view that the Consumer side is going to find the floor. So that's one.

是的，我認為我們正在進行的其他事情，特別是當我們進入今年下半年時，消費者餘額將在某個時候找到底部。他們再次處於恢復每個帳戶更正常的疫情前餘額的最後階段。所以他們要找到發言權。到那時，它們將開始成長，就像財富業已經找到了底線一樣，就像全球銀行業不久前找到了底線並且現在開始成長一樣。所以我們認為消費者方將會找到發言權。這就是其中之一。

Two is, at that point, you're poised for deposit growth, but we're also going to see loan growth through the course of the year. It's been slower this quarter. But at some point, you return to a more normal economy, as Brian has pointed out. We're going to see the loan growth, and so we're thinking that's going to start to evidence itself in the back half. And then the final thing I'd just say is we have securities reinvestment every month, and that's going to support and grow NII. And I think it gives us a sense that we've got a more durable NII stream underneath.

二是，屆時，存款將出現成長，但我們也將在這一年看到貸款成長。本季增速較慢。但正如布萊恩指出的那樣，在某個時候，經濟會回到更正常的狀態。我們將看到貸款成長，因此我們認為這將在下半年開始顯現出來。我想說的最後一件事是我們每個月都會進行證券再投資，這將支持和成長 NII。我認為這讓我們感覺到我們下面有一個更持久的 NII 流。

And we'll take our next question from Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian 提出的下一個問題。

I have my first question is sort of two-pronged on the balance sheet. Alastair, if you could tell us sort of how much in cash flow do you forecast your HTM book will have in 2024 as you think about the moving pieces underneath your NII outlook?

我的第一個問題是關於資產負債表的兩個面向。 Alastair，如果您能告訴我們，當您考慮 NII 前景下的動態因素時，您預計 2024 年您的 HTM 帳簿將有多少現金流？

And for Brian, clearly, this held-to-maturity portfolio has been a thorn in the side of the stock. And so -- and no matter what we say to the investment community, the stock hasn't quite caught up. And I'm wondering, as you think about the statistics that you share with us every quarter, like net new checking adds, maybe give us a little more statistics in terms of the strength of that growth and the strength of that retention because I think that no matter what sort of print that you have on total deposits at the end of the quarter, there's always sort of pushback so long as the market is not yet confident that we've hit peak rates. So that's sort of a 2-part first question.

對布萊恩來說，顯然，這種持有至到期的投資組合一直是股票的眼中釘。因此，無論我們對投資界說什麼，該股都還沒有完全跟上。我想知道，當您考慮每個季度與我們分享的統計數據時，例如淨新檢查增加，也許可以為我們提供更多關於增長強度和保留強度的統計數據，因為我認為無論季度末的存款總額如何，只要市場對我們已經達到高峰利率沒有信心，總是會有一些阻力。這是第一個問題，分為兩個部分。

All right. So I'll answer the first part, Erika. I think if you look back through the course of the last couple of years, that portfolio paydowns in terms of maturities or paydowns, it's sort of averaging $10 billion a quarter. So I think you could probably use that as a good starting point for the reinvestment horizon in 2024. That's what I would use. And then I'll let Brian answer the second part of your question.

好的。所以我會回答第一部分，艾莉卡。我認為，如果你回顧過去幾年的歷程，你會發現，從到期日或支付額來看，投資組合的支付額平均每季為 100 億美元。因此，我認為您可以將其用作 2024 年再投資期限的良好起點。這就是我會使用的。然後我會讓布萊恩回答你問題的第二部分。

So Erika, we drive organic growth machine based on a responsible set across all the different operating businesses. So as you've noted, if you look at what's driving our deposit base to be larger than the industry, i.e., outperforming the industry is, if you think from every compares against '19 to now and we're up $250 billion in Consumer deposit loan, but we also are up probably 10% in checking accounts -- net checking accounts. Those are 92% core. The attrition rate and where all the deposit balances are in the preferred part of that segment is -- the retention rate is 99% plus, long-term customers with Preferred Rewards program drives a basis.

因此，艾莉卡（Erika），我們在所有不同營運業務的負責任的基礎上推動有機成長機器。正如您所指出的，如果您看看是什麼推動我們的存款基礎比行業更大，即表現優於行業，如果您從 19 年至今的各個方面進行比較，我們的消費者支出增加了 2500 億美元存款貸款，但我們的支票帳戶—淨支票帳戶也可能增加了10%。這些是 92% 的核心。流失率以及所有存款餘額都在該細分市場的首選部分的情況是——保留率超過 99%，這是具有首選獎勵計劃的長期客戶的基礎。

On cards, we're now getting the balance back up to where they were pre-pandemic with even better credit quality than we had then. We got home equities hit a trough and are starting to work their way out. Auto loans -- it will continue to produce, a lot doesn't -- the market is not real strong, we continue to produce several billion in a quarter. So all the organic growth engine in the Consumer business are very strong. When you go to Wealth Management, we're now producing that household growth at a faster rate than we produced in the prior years.

在信用卡方面，我們現在正在將餘額恢復到大流行前的水平，信用品質甚至比當時更好。我們的房屋股票觸底，並開始走出困境。汽車貸款——它將繼續產生，但很多不會——市場並不真正強勁，我們一個季度繼續產生數十億美元。因此，消費者業務的所有有機成長引擎都非常強勁。當你進入財富管理時，我們現在的家庭成長速度比前幾年更快。

If you go to the Commercial Banking businesses in the U.S., we noted that we produced more customers this year. And that deposit base in the business banking and middle market segments, those come with a big deposit franchise. And you see that those deposits actually been stable and growing for last 6 months. So again, a growth engine is in fine shape and just powers through all this and is the strength of the $3 trillion plus balance sheet. And in fact, it is the reason that we have $1 trillion of -- $900 billion on a given day that we have to put to work because you're just having this great engine go on.

如果你去看看美國的商業銀行業務，我們會注意到今年我們產生了更多的客戶。商業銀行和中間市場領域的存款基礎，擁有大量的存款專營權。您會發現這些存款實際上在過去 6 個月中一直穩定且在增長。再說一遍，成長引擎狀況良好，能夠為這一切提供動力，也是 3 兆美元以上資產負債表的力量。事實上，這就是我們在某一天必須投入 1 兆至 9,000 億美元的原因，因為這個偉大的引擎正在運轉。

And so whether it's investment accounts in Consumer, checking accounts in Consumer, cards in Consumer, home equity, all that has grown organically dramatically over the last 4, 5, 10 years. And frankly, the loan growth will continue to follow that as conditions improve. And then on the Commercial side, as people go back to regular line usage, we saw it deteriorate this quarter largely due to the demand side, and so we feel very good. And then talked about the markets business, gave you detail there and the investment banking team is gaining market share and actually thought to maintain relatively flat fees in a market that was down 20% or something.

因此，無論是消費者的投資帳戶、消費者的支票帳戶、消費者的信用卡、房屋淨值，所有這些在過去的 4、5、10 年都在有機地急劇增長。坦白說，隨著情況的改善，貸款成長將繼續隨之而來。然後在商業方面，隨著人們恢復常規線路使用，我們看到本季情況惡化，很大程度上是由於需求方面，所以我們感覺非常好。然後談到了市場業務，向您提供了詳細信息，投資銀行團隊正在獲得市場份額，並且實際上認為在下降 20% 左右的市場中保持相對穩定的費用。

So we feel very good about the organic growth engine. That's what powers our company, and that delivered $7 billion plus in after-tax income for another quarter and 15% return on tangible common equity.

所以我們對有機成長引擎感覺非常好。這就是我們公司的動力所在，它為我們公司帶來了另一個季度超過 70 億美元的稅後收入以及 15% 的有形普通股回報率。

Got it. And my second question is for you, Alastair. Do you have any economic ownership of Visa Class B shares remaining? Our understanding is until the litigation was settled, you weren't allowed to sell it other than to other banks in the initial consortium. But I'm wondering if you've sold any economic ownership through swap or if we still have it on the books because we haven't seen any disclosures on that recently.

知道了。我的第二個問題是問你的，阿拉斯泰爾。您是否擁有剩餘的 Visa B 類股票的經濟所有權？我們的理解是，在訴訟解決之前，除了初始財團中的其他銀行外，您不得將其出售。但我想知道你們是否透過互換出售了任何經濟所有權，或者我們是否仍然將其記錄在案，因為我們最近沒有看到任何相關披露。

Well, I mean, we essentially sold and edged our Visa B position years ago. And then in our markets business, we've financed the sale of Visa by other banks. You can think about that as a hedge thing that's just about a financing. So depending on how that all develops and what other banks choose to do, we may end up having some RWA or some liquidity that we can recycle for other clients' benefit in our markets business, but we don't have any meaningful economic stake in Visa B.

嗯，我的意思是，幾年前我們基本上就出售並擠掉了我們的 Visa B 地位。然後在我們的市場業務中，我們為其他銀行出售 Visa 提供了資金。你可以將其視為一種與融資有關的對沖行為。因此，根據這一切的發展以及其他銀行選擇做什麼，我們最終可能會擁有一些RWA 或一些流動性，我們可以在我們的市場業務中為其他客戶的利益進行回收，但我們沒有任何有意義的經濟利益簽證B。

We'll take our next question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們將回答富國銀行麥克梅奧的下一個問題。

Do you expect the efficiency ratio expenses to revenues to improve from 63% and when? And I guess this is a 2-part question. One is expenses. As you said, it's down every quarter this year. You're guiding for the fourth quarter. Slide 5, the digital adoption, it's about 3/4 for your clients across the firm. So the sustainability of those digital trends to help lower expense or control expenses, given some of the headwinds.

您預計費用與收入的效率比率是否會從 63% 改善？何時改善？我想這是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。一是費用。正如你所說，今年每季都在下降。您正在指導第四季。投影片 5，數位化採用，約佔整個公司客戶的 3/4。因此，考慮到一些不利因素，這些數字趨勢的可持續性有助於降低費用或控制費用。

And especially given the threat of big tech and fintech, the sustainability of the digital trends and why you think you have an advantage on so many others. They say they have the advantage. And the second part of that question is revenues. Your NIM is a bit over 2%. Went up a little quarter-over-quarter, but it was closer to 2.5%. Going back 5 years and maybe long term, it's 3%. I'm not sure. So what do you think is a normalized NIM that would help the efficiency ratio, and the trend for expenses and ultimately the efficiency ratio?

尤其是考慮到大型科技和金融科技的威脅、數位趨勢的可持續性以及為什麼你認為自己比其他許多人有優勢。他們說他們有優勢。這個問題的第二部分是收入。你的 NIM 略高於 2%。環比略有上升，但接近 2.5%。回溯 5 年，也許從長遠來看，這個數字是 3%。我不知道。那麼，您認為標準化的淨利差如何有助於提高效率比、費用趨勢以及最終的效率比？

Sure. So Mike, I think the expenses come down, revenue grows, the efficiency ratio continues to improve. One of the big differences between us and other companies you can compare us to is the size of our Wealth Management business relative to the size of the company as large. And as you know, that's a business which we continue to work to make more efficient, but it's at least efficient business and a platform. So Lindsay and Eric continue to drive the efficiency there.

當然。麥克，我認為費用下降，收入成長，效率持續提高。我們與您可以與我們進行比較的其他公司之間的最大區別之一是我們的財富管理業務的規模相對於公司的規模而言較大。如您所知，我們將繼續努力提高這項業務的效率，但它至少是高效的業務和平台。因此 Lindsay 和 Eric 繼續提高那裡的效率。

So yes, we expect the efficiency ratio to continue to improve. And part of that will be as the net interest margin normalized that we normalize the size balance sheet, given it's grossed up for a lot of reasons through the pandemic and stuff. And you kind of fine-tune it, you'll get a little more effectiveness there. In the past, we ran up to ˜ NIM and then the sort of normalized sort of environment, and you'd expect us to keep moving up from there. Now it will be bouncing around here as we work through the trough in NII that we described, which is we're sort of in the middle of starting this quarter into the first half of next year.

所以，是的，我們預期效率比將繼續提高。其中一部分將是隨著淨利差正常化，我們將資產負債表規模正常化，因為由於大流行等原因，資產負債表的總額已經增加。如果你對其進行微調，你會獲得更高的效率。過去，我們跑到了 Ë NIM，然後是那種標準化的環境，你會期望我們從那裡繼續前進。現在，當我們努力度過我們所描述的國家資訊基礎設施的低谷時，它將會在這裡反彈，也就是說我們正處於從本季度開始到明年上半年的中期。

So Mike, and as you know, it's all about management heads, and that's -- last year, at this time, we all talked about the great resignation or last year, last summer, and how we had to hire people, we over-hired because the issue was could you hire fast enough to get what you needed this year. We're able to bring that excess back out of the system and ended up kind of where we wanted to be at 212,000. As we think forward, we continue to reposition people around the company who are freed up because of that digital application to other things.

所以麥克，正如你所知，這都是關於管理負責人的，那就是——去年的這個時候，我們都談論了偉大的辭職，或者去年，去年夏天，以及我們如何不得不僱用人員，我們過度——之所以被聘用，是因為問題是你能否足夠快地聘用以獲得今年所需的東西。我們能夠將多餘的部分從系統中收回，最終達到了我們想要的 212,000 人。當我們展望未來時，我們將繼續對公司內部的人員進行重新定位，這些人員因數位化應用而被解放出來從事其他事情。

So in a broad sense, our consumer business is down from 100,000 people to 60,000 people and continues to drift down as we continue to use the -- that's the place of the most leverage in digital across the board, you continue to get less branches, less ATMs. You can see the statistics on the chart. More customer interactions and more customers, that's a pretty good trade, and we continue to drive that, including sales and digital that we disclosed in the back of things. You're running nearly half the sales, and frankly with improvements on the checking account opening, we can drive another round of growth there.

因此，從廣義上講，我們的消費者業務從 100,000 人減少到 60,000 人，並且隨著我們繼續使用——這是全面數字化最具影響力的地方，你的分支機構繼續減少，更少的ATM機。您可以在圖表上看到統計數據。更多的客戶互動和更多的客戶，這是一個非常好的交易，我們將繼續推動這一點，包括我們在後面披露的銷售和數位。您的銷售額接近一半，坦白說，隨著支票帳戶開立的改進，我們可以推動那裡的另一輪成長。

So that's what we're going to do. We continue to drive the efficiency ratio to a level, and we'll see where we can get it to.

這就是我們要做的。我們將繼續將效率比提高到一個水平，我們將看看我們能達到什麼水平。

And then just on that big picture question, I mean, you've invested for over a decade in your data and tech stack and digital engagement. And now we have AI and GenAI as a new opportunity and a threat. Why do you think -- or maybe don't. Why do you think that you have an advantage versus, say, smaller banks, fintechs or big tech?

然後就這個大局問題而言，我的意思是，您已經在數據和技術堆疊以及數位參與方面投入了十多年。現在，人工智慧和 GenAI 既是新的機遇，也是新的威脅。你為什麼這麼認為——或者也許不這麼認為。為什麼您認為與小型銀行、金融科技公司或大型科技公司相比，您有優勢？

Well, we have an advantage in that we've been applying it for a number of years now. So effectively, Erica is a form of that and now has 17 million customers working on it everything. And so think about that. This quarter, I think there's 170 million interactions, whatever the number is, 180 million interactions, something like that. If you think about that, Mike, in a days gone by, every one of those would have been an e-mail, a text or a phone call. And so it's obviously tremendously more efficient. And we're continuing to prove we brought it out to the CashPro side, which is the Commercial side. So that helps.

嗯，我們的優勢在於我們已經應用它很多年了。事實上，Erica 就是其中的一種形式，現在有 1700 萬客戶在處理這一切。所以想一想。本季度，我認為有 1.7 億次互動，無論數字是多少，1.8 億次互動，類似的東西。麥克，如果你想一想，在過去的日子裡，每一封郵件都只是一封電子郵件、一封簡訊或一通電話。所以它的效率顯然要高得多。我們正在繼續證明我們將其帶到了 CashPro 方面，即商業方面。所以這有幫助。

If you think about -- in the $3.8 billion we'll spend in '24 on technology initiative spending, (inaudible) team continue to use the techniques that you read about in the paper to increase the efficiency of that development effort. And it's probably 10%, 15% in the short term building up, higher and higher as people get more and more used to it, and that will allow those dollars to be stretched even further. So we think that's a near-term application that we're already doing and has high probability.

如果您考慮一下，我們將在 24 年花費 38 億美元用於技術計劃支出，（聽不清楚）團隊將繼續使用您在論文中讀到的技術來提高開發工作的效率。短期內可能會增加 10%、15%，隨著人們越來越習慣，這個數字會越來越高，這將使這些資金進一步捉襟見肘。所以我們認為這是我們已經在做的近期應用並且可能性很高。

And then, frankly, if you think about our capabilities, if you look, we have nearly, I don't know, 6,000, 7,000 patents out there, 600 on AI already related -- machine learning-related activities, setting the application filed. We got a lot of inventors in this company. And so we feel good about our ability to compete against the types of people you said. But by the way, we use some of those people who might compete to actually be providers to help us do this stuff. And some of the big tech companies are -- as you listen to them, they have -- it's a business for them to sell that AI capabilities to companies like ours to make us more efficient.

然後，坦白說，如果你考慮我們的能力，如果你看一下，我們有近 6,000、7,000 項專利，其中 600 項與人工智慧相關——與機器學習相關的活動，設定申請提交。我們公司有很多發明家。因此，我們對自己與您所說的這類人競爭的能力感到滿意。但順便說一句，我們使用了一些可能競爭實際上成為提供者的人來幫助我們做這些事情。一些大型科技公司——正如你聽他們所說的那樣——他們的一項業務是向像我們這樣的公司出售人工智慧功能，以提高我們的效率。

So near term customer help, near term employee effectiveness, near term coding enhancements, et cetera, et cetera. But one thing as you mentioned, we have invested heavily to have the data and the tech stack ready to go and 3-point-whatever billion dollars, 1 billion interactions this quarter in digital show that the people are ready to use the services we provide them.

因此，近期客戶幫助、近期員工效率、近期編碼增強等等。但正如您所提到的一件事，我們投入了大量資金來讓數據和技術堆疊做好準備，而本季度的 3 億美元、10 億次數位互動表明人們已經準備好使用我們提供的服務。

We'll take our next question from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

我們將回答 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak 提出的下一個問題。

So I wanted to start off with a question on expense. You said headcount actions, it should provide relief in 4Q and positive flow through into next year. I was hoping you could either help size the benefit from [interactions] or just frame how we should be thinking about expense growth as we look out to next year.

所以我想從一個關於費用的問題開始。您提到了人員調整行動，這應該會在第四季度帶來緩解，並為明年帶來正面的影響。我希望您可以幫助衡量[互動]帶來的好處，或者只是框架我們在展望明年時應該如何考慮費用增長。

Well, I think what we've tried to do this year, Steve, is communicate pretty clearly what our plan was. As Brian said, we overachieved last year on hiring. So we started the year with 218,000 and expenses of 16.2. And we've really been working on the trajectory over the course of this year. So this point of getting the headcount to a place where we're comfortable, 16.2 turns into 16, turns into 15.8, we're now determined to deliver on the 15.6, and I think that's going to set up really well. So our plan is to finalize our strategic planning over the course of the next few weeks, and I think we'll give you more guidance next quarter.

史蒂夫，我認為今年我們試圖做的就是非常清楚地傳達我們的計劃是什麼。正如布萊恩所說，我們去年在招募方面取得了超額成績。因此，我們年初的人數為 218,000，費用為 16.2。今年我們確實一直在努力實現這一目標。因此，將員工人數調整到我們感到滿意的水平，從 16.2 變成 16，再變成 15.8，我們現在決定在 15.6 上實現目標，我認為這將會非常順利。因此，我們的計劃是在接下來的幾週內最終確定我們的策略規劃，我認為我們將在下個季度為您提供更多指導。

Great. And just 2 clarifying questions or cleanup questions at my end. On the NII remarks, you talked about deposits. I was hoping you could help frame, Alastair, what are the assumptions you're making in terms of reinvestment yields and loan growth that are underpinning that higher NII exit rate for next year?

偉大的。最後只有兩個澄清問題或清理問題。關於國家資訊基礎設施的言論，您談到了存款。我希望你能幫忙解釋一下，阿拉斯泰爾，你在再投資收益率和貸款成長方面做出的假設是什麼，這些假設支撐著明年較高的 NII 退出率？

Yes. So I'd say reinvestment, just assume the forward curve. And with respect to loan growth, (inaudible) low single digits, consistent with a slow growth economy.

是的。所以我想說的是再投資，只要假設遠期曲線就好。就貸款成長而言，（聽不清楚）低個位數，這與經濟成長緩慢一致。

Okay. And just one quick one here on the tax advantage investments. I just wanted to confirm, given the long duration, the 4x increase in capital, are you still planning to fund tax advantage investments on the platform before the rules are finalized? Or are you going to take a wait-and-see approach?

好的。這裡只是簡單介紹一下稅務優惠投資。我只是想確認一下，鑑於期限較長，資本增加了 4 倍，您是否仍計劃在規則最終確定之前為平台上的稅收優惠投資提供資金？或者您打算採取觀望態度？

Well, I mean this remains something that's important for our clients. We've yet to see a final rule. So we'll be supporting transactions. But obviously, as Brian said, it is informing us with respect to pricing, and it's informing us with respect to appetite. But until there's a change, we'll continue to support the clients in that regard.

嗯，我的意思是這對我們的客戶來說仍然很重要。我們還沒有看到最終規則。所以我們將支持交易。但顯然，正如布萊恩所說，它告訴我們有關定價的信息，也告訴我們有關胃口的信息。但在發生變化之前，我們將繼續在這方面為客戶提供支援。

We'll take our next question from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行馬特·奧康納的下一個問題。

First, just to clarify, what's driving the drop in net interest income from 3Q to 4Q? Is that core net interest income? Or is that on the market side?

首先澄清一下，是什麼導致淨利息收入從第三季到第四季下降？這是核心淨利息收入嗎？或者說是市場方面的？

Well, you're talking about the fact that we think that we're going to be around $14-or-so billion in Q4. I'd say, first one is you've got a little bit of deposit pricing lag there. So we got to keep thinking about that. Second is, we're sort of baking into some continued normalization of Consumer balances. So that's just continuing to drift slowly lower. I think third, if we had hoped for loan growth in Q3, we just didn't see that. So that's going to flow through with lower loan growth balances in Q4.

嗯，你說的是我們認為第四季營收將達到 14 億美元左右的事實。我想說，第一個是存款定價有一點延遲。所以我們必須繼續思考這一點。其次，我們正在推動消費者餘額的持續正常化。所以這只是繼續緩慢下降。我認為第三，如果我們希望第三季貸款成長，我們只是沒有看到這一點。因此，這將隨著第四季度貸款成長餘額的下降而發生。

And then the only final thing I'd just say is the Global Markets NII may not repeat in quite the same way. Some of that depends on client behavior. And they benefited this particular quarter by just long-term rates going up so significantly and not helping the carry side. So all those things and probably a little bit of rate hike probability or timing delayed, but it's all those sorts of things and what hasn't changed is -- this hasn't changed from our expectation a quarter ago in any way.

最後我要說的唯一一件事是，全球市場 NII 可能不會以完全相同的方式重複。其中一些取決於客戶的行為。他們在這個特定的季度受益匪淺，因為長期利率大幅上升，而沒有幫助利差。因此，所有這些事情，可能還有一點升息機率或時間延遲，但就是所有這些事情，沒有改變的是——這與我們一個季度前的預期沒有任何改變。

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And then just conceptually, if you think about your interest income guidance for next year. What if we get higher for longer rates, there's no cuts. Is that good or bad versus the guidance that you gave earlier? Obviously, you've got puts and takes, so some reinvestment on the asset side. But again, coming back to the deposit pricing issue, I think there's a view that higher for longer eventually drives up the Consumer rates. So what would be the net of those 2 in the higher for longer?

是的。好的。這很有幫助。然後從概念上來說，如果你考慮明年的利息收入指引。如果我們的長期利率更高，但沒有削減怎麼辦？與您之前給予的指導相比，這是好是壞？顯然，你有看跌期權和看跌期權，因此需要在資產方面進行一些再投資。但再次回到存款定價問題，我認為有一種觀點認為，長期較高的利率最終會推高消費者利率。那麼，在較高的時間裡，這兩個因素的淨值是多少呢？

Well, higher for longer is going to be better. So you're right, we've got the forward curve and our expectation that doesn't turn out to be the case, we'd expect NII would be higher.

好吧，持續時間越高越好。所以你是對的，我們已經得到了遠期曲線，但我們的預期結果並非如此，我們預計 NII 會更高。

And that's simply the assets repricing more on the deposits? Or are you still thinking there's minimal consumer deposit and pricing even in the higher for longer?

這只是資產重新定價更多的存款？或者您仍然認為即使在較長時間內消費者存款和定價也較低？

It will be both. I mean there'll be the repricing for sure. And in addition, we'd expect to capture a little bit of margin from any short-term rate hike.

兩者都會。我的意思是肯定會重新定價。此外，我們預計將從任何短期升息中獲得一點利潤。

We'll take our next question from John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

我們將接受自治研究中心的約翰·麥克唐納提出的下一個問題。

I was hoping you could give a little color on what you're seeing on credit. Your outlook as you look at roll rates and migrations, how are you thinking about the trajectory of charge-offs in the near term?

我希望你能為你所看到的賒帳內容提供一些色彩。當您考慮滾動率和遷移時，您如何看待近期沖銷的軌跡？

Well, John, I'll just point out, you can see the trajectory we've laid it out on the slide. Most all of the net charge-off increase over time has been really due to card and Consumer card. And the charge-offs at this point are still lower than they were in the fourth quarter of '19, which was a stellar period. And I'd anticipate in the short term that you'd see things begin to -- or just continue that trend. Because it normally follows 90 days past due delinquencies and those are up ever so slightly again this quarter. So we're inching closer to the fourth quarter of '19. And at some point, that's going to begin to stabilize.

好吧，約翰，我只想指出，你可以看到我們在幻燈片上列出的軌跡。隨著時間的推移，大部分淨沖銷成長實際上都是由銀行卡和消費者卡造成的。此時的沖銷仍低於 19 年第四季的水平，那是一個輝煌的時期。我預計在短期內你會看到事情開始——或者只是繼續這種趨勢。因為它通常是在逾期 90 天的拖欠款之後發生的，而本季度這些拖欠款又略有上升。所以我們距離 19 年第四季越來越近了。在某個時候，這種情況將開始穩定下來。

From there, it's just a question of what does the economy do. So right now, as Brian has pointed out, we've got a slow growth economy in the plan. So I'd anticipate as we get back towards that kind of fourth quarter '19 number, it's going to normalize in there. But from that point, it will be very economic dependent. On the Commercial side, the asset quality has been excellent. The only place where we've got particular elevated concern is office, which is a very small part of our portfolio. It's less than 2% of our loans.

從那時起，問題就只剩下經濟做什麼了。因此，正如布萊恩所指出的，我們現在的計劃是經濟緩慢成長。因此，我預計當我們回到 19 年第四季的數據時，它將會正常化。但從那時起，它將非常依賴經濟。商業方面，資產品質優良。我們唯一特別關注的地方是辦公室，它只占我們投資組合的一小部分。這還不到我們貸款的2%。

But the commercial side has been terrific. And again, that will depend on how the economy plays out, and whether we're talking about a soft landing, whether we're talking about a recession or whether we're talking about robust growth. So all of that is going to have to play itself out. With the Commercial numbers being so low, that one could bounce around a little bit, but it's only because it's coming off a base that's so low at this point.

但商業方面卻非常棒。再說一次，這將取決於經濟如何發展，以及我們是否在談論軟著陸、是否在談論衰退或我們是否在談論強勁成長。因此，所有這一切都必須自行解決。由於商業數據如此之低，因此可能會出現一點反彈，但這只是因為它的基數如此之低。

John, just one thing on as you think about the Commercial credit. Remember, we have a strong, disciplined ratings change, rating capability in the company. And so we are pushing through the reviews of the commercial real estate portfolio, et cetera. We put them on, criticized quickly. We had to deal with the charge-offs, and that's why you see them come back already in. And we're adjusting those activities as we show in the slides in the part of the deck, you have current appraisals under market conditions, under current rent rolls, et cetera.

約翰，當您考慮商業信用時，我只想說一件事。請記住，我們公司擁有強大、嚴格的評級變更、評級能力。因此，我們正在推動對商業房地產投資組合等的審查。我們穿上它們，很快就受到了批評。我們必須處理沖銷，這就是為什麼你看到它們已經回來了。我們正在調整這些活動，正如我們在甲板部分的幻燈片中所示，你在市場條件下有當前的評估，在當前的租金清單等。

And so even though it's a very small part of our portfolio, frankly, a lot of the issues are through the system for us because the high ratings integrity and rating conservatism we've had in this company for many, many years. And that holds us well. And that always -- if you think back like in the oil and gas thing in the end of '15, '16, we put up all of this reserve that was pre-CECL and then end up bringing it back in because the charge offs were very modest. So I think we feel very good about the original underwriting, but you also have -- because of our ratings integrity on the office part of the portfolio, we pushed a fairly significant amount through reappraisal and relook, and we have the CECL reserves. But importantly, the charge-offs are falling already.

因此，儘管它只占我們投資組合的一小部分，但坦白說，許多問題都是透過我們的系統解決的，因為我們在這家公司多年來一直擁有高評級誠信和評級保守主義。這對我們很有幫助。如果你回想一下 15 年末和 16 年末的石油和天然氣問題，我們會在 CECL 之前存入所有儲備金，然後最終將其重新收回，因為沖銷被取消了。非常謙虛。因此，我認為我們對最初的承銷感覺非常好，但由於我們對投資組合的辦公室部分的評級完整性，我們透過重新評估和重新審查投入了相當大的金額，並且我們擁有 CECL 儲備。但重要的是，沖銷額已經在下降。

Got it. And one bigger picture question as you think about the Basel III and the opportunity to mitigate and optimize. Does a 15% ROTCE feel like a good aspiration for the company over time, Brian, through the cycle? I mean, I'm recognizing that's where you are already today. But as you factor in the potential for new rules, anything about that?

知道了。當您思考《巴塞爾協議 III》以及緩解和優化的機會時，還有一個更大的問題。 Brian，隨著時間的推移，在整個週期中，15% 的 ROTCE 是否對公司來說是一個良好的願望？我的意思是，我認識到你今天已經處於這樣的境地。但當你考慮到新規則的可能性時，這有什麼影響嗎？

Yes. So I think we're doing on -- I think a simple way to think about it is, we're doing on $194 billion of capital, which we did at it this quarter. And that is -- you need about another, say, $10 billion to put a buffer on the end state need, $10 billion to $11 billion, $195 billion plus 0.5%, which is our normal buffer without any mitigation. That would be a very modest increase of 10 over 200, let's make it simple. And that would hit the ROTCE a bit. And we -- I'm sure we can figure out ways to price to get that back.

是的。所以我認為我們正在做——我認為一個簡單的思考方式是，我們正在利用 1,940 億美元的資本來做這件事，我們本季就是這樣做的。也就是說，你還需要大約 100 億美元來緩衝最終狀態的需求，100 億美元到 110 億美元，1,950 億美元加上 0.5%，這是我們沒有任何緩解措施的正常緩衝。與 200 相比，增加 10 是非常適中的，讓我們簡單一點。這會對後備軍官訓練生（ROTCE）造成一些影響。我相信我們能夠找到定價方法來收回成本。

But remember, we're different than everybody else, John, because we're actually sitting on this amount of capital today. And so we are getting a 15% return on it. So I don't want to -- don't take that as saying I agree with the rules, but saying we got to deal with the cards that are dealt to us. The rule say that you have to have $195 billion plus about $10 billion of cushion for -- and maybe a little bit more cushion. But depending on -- for 50 basis points or so. But we're doing 15% today, so there will be a slight dilution to that number, but not something we couldn't make up, and that's before any mitigation honestly.

但請記住，約翰，我們與其他人不同，因為我們今天實際上坐擁如此數量的資本。所以我們獲得了 15% 的回報。所以我不想——不要認為這意味著我同意規則，而是說我們必須處理發給我們的牌。規則規定，你必須有 1950 億美元加上大約 100 億美元的緩衝——也許還需要更多一點的緩衝。但取決於 50 個基點左右。但我們今天的比例是 15%，所以這個數字會略有稀釋，但不是我們無法彌補的，老實說，這是在採取任何緩解措施之前。

And there's always mitigation, you know that, you've been around this industry for a long time. So there's always mitigation, how you construct things, what you'll do, what you not do. And I fully expect there'll be modifications and rules which ought to help also. But I think the simple point is, we earned that amount of capital today, so it's not like some calculation I have to think through. It's right there today.

總有緩解措施，你知道，你已經在這個行業工作了很長時間。所以總是有緩解措施，你如何建立事物，你會做什麼，你不做什麼。我完全希望會有一些修改和規則也應該有所幫助。但我認為簡單的一點是，我們今天賺了這麼多資金，所以這不像我必須仔細考慮的一些計算。今天就在那裡。

We'll take our next question from Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja 提出的下一個問題。

Alastair, question, just want to clarify your NII comment. So if rates, say higher are better, are you implying that rate cuts would therefore be negative for you from an NII standpoint?

阿拉斯泰爾，問題，只是想澄清你的 NII 評論。因此，如果利率越高越好，您是否意味著從國家資訊基礎設施的角度來看，降息會對您產生負面影響？

Yes, I'm saying. Right now Vivek, if you think about what rate cuts look like in the back half of next year, in the absence of that, we might guide NII higher, yes. That's what I'm trying to communicate.

是的，我是說。現在，Vivek，如果你考慮一下明年下半年降息的情況，在沒有降息的情況下，我們可能會引導 NII 走高，是的。這就是我想要傳達的。

And is that because your assets -- you have that many floating rate assets that would reprice faster than you can cut funding costs?

這是因為你的資產——你有那麼多浮動利率資產，它們的重新定價速度比你削減融資成本的速度還要快嗎？

Yes. On the way down, I'd anticipate that as rates are going down, it's going to cut into our margin on our deposit spreads. So that's essentially what we're talking about.

是的。在下降過程中，我預計隨著利率下降，我們的存款利差利潤將會減少。這基本上就是我們正在討論的內容。

Yes, Vivek, I think I just listen to you and Alastair. I think remember the forward curve has multiple cuts in it next year. And I think the question was if those didn't occur, what would happen. And I think Alastair said NII would be higher if those cuts didn't occur. It's not a rate -- it's just mathematically at 75 basis points in the second half of next year of not being cut would hold us higher because of all the deposits being worth more in the floating rate assets holding pricing up better. Dominant part of our balance sheet. I just sense that you're talking about each other, but maybe not.

是的，維韋克，我想我只是聽你和阿拉斯泰爾的話。我想請記住，明年遠期曲線會有多次削減。我認為問題是如果這些沒有發生，會發生什麼。我認為阿拉斯泰爾說過，如果不進行這些削減，NII 將會更高。這不是一個利率——它只是從數學上來說，如果明年下半年不降息的話，我們會保持75個基點的水平，因為所有存款在浮動利率資產中的價值都會更高，從而使定價更好。我們資產負債表的主要部分。我只是感覺到你們在談論彼此，但也許不是。

We'll take our next question from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們將回答 Ken Usdin 和 Jefferies 提出的下一個問題。

Just a follow-up on the securities portfolio on the AFS side, Alastair, how much of that $180 billion is still swapped? And can you kind of help us understand like what the kind of all-in yield is on that book? And if you would still also have repricing help going forward on that book as well as I mentioned earlier on the HTM maturities?

只是AFS這邊的證券投資組合的後續，阿拉斯泰爾，這1800億美元中還有多少是互換的？你能幫助我們理解那本書的總報酬率是多少嗎？如果您仍能獲得關於該書以及我之前提到的 HTM 到期日的重新定價幫助？

Yes. So most of the book we swapped to floating. We've tried to establish that over the course of time. So you can almost think about most available for sale securities, repricing kind of every day, every week, every 2 weeks, whatever it may be. So that tends to look a little bit more like the cash type moves over time. There's a few securities in there that are fixed rate, but very, very little in terms of the total complexion, Ken.

是的。所以這本書的大部分內容我們都換成浮動的。隨著時間的推移，我們一直在努力確定這一點。因此，您幾乎可以想像大多數可供出售的證券，每天、每週、每兩週重新定價，無論是什麼。因此，這看起來更像是現金類型隨著時間的推移而變化。那裡有一些固定利率的證券，但就整體而言非常非常少，肯。

Okay. That helps. And then I just wanted to also say, on the fee side, obviously, another really good job both on the Investment Bank and the trading businesses, still in uncertain environment. Just wanted to get your thoughts. You were able to hold the IB fees flat sequentially, which was, I think, better than you had indicated. Just your thoughts on reopening here in the markets, and how you're kind of expecting the business to hopefully, albeit understanding it's still an uncertain environment.

好的。這有幫助。然後我只想說，在費用方面，顯然，投資銀行和交易業務的另一項非常出色的工作，但仍然處於不確定的環境中。只是想了解您的想法。你們能夠連續保持 IB 費用不變，我認為這比你們所說的要好。只是您對市場重新開放的想法，以及您對業務的期望，儘管您知道這仍然是一個不確定的環境。

Yes. So this is I suppose, unusual and not unusual. Investment Banking, obviously, has the potential for swings in fees, and what's interesting about this one is, would that be bouncing around this sort of $1.1 billion per quarter, $1.2 billion per quarter. And normally, investment banking you'd expect to return within a year or so, and we're now 7 quarters into this. So we've got a good pipeline. And mostly what I think corporate America and around the world, C-suite executives are looking for, is the confidence that comes from macroeconomic certainty, geopolitical certainty.

是的。所以我認為這很不尋常，但也不罕見。顯然，投資銀行業務的費用可能會波動，而有趣的是，這筆費用是否會在每季 11 億美元、每季 12 億美元左右波動。通常情況下，投資銀行業務預計會在一年左右的時間內實現回報，而我們現在已經進入了 7 個季度。所以我們有一個很好的管道。我認為美國和世界各地的企業主管所尋求的主要是來自宏觀經濟確定性和地緣政治確定性的信心。

So for as long as we've got the volatility, it's going to stay in this kind of a range. But if you were to look back in periods past, Investment Banking can come back very, very quickly to a more historical range of kind of $1.3 billion, $1.4 billion, $1.5 billion per quarter. It's just that we've grown tired of predicting when that might be, Ken.

因此，只要我們有波動性，它就會保持在這樣的範圍內。但如果你回顧過去的時期，投資銀行業務可以非常非常快速地回到歷史範圍，每季 13 億美元、14 億美元、15 億美元。只是我們已經厭倦了預測什麼時候會發生，肯恩。

Yes. Ken, let me give you 2 other pieces. One, the pipeline still is strong. But more importantly, Matthew and the team have done a good job of building out our capabilities to serve our huge middle market client base, our Global Commercial Banking client base under Wendy's leadership, and that number is growing quickly. And that's a market which is -- we're relatively unpenetrated in. We had good market share with our clients, but -- that we did business with, but we continue -- meaning Investment Banking business with.

是的。肯，讓我給你另外兩件。第一，管道仍然強勁。但更重要的是，馬修和團隊在建立我們的能力方面做得很好，為我們龐大的中間市場客戶群、溫迪領導下的全球商業銀行客戶群提供服務，而且這個數字正在迅速增長。這是一個我們相對尚未滲透的市場。我們與客戶有很好的市場份額，但是我們與之開展業務，但我們繼續開展投資銀行業務。

And so that's generating probably better performance for us than others in terms of holding our position flat relative, up a little bit year-over-year, flat year-over-year versus a down market. So we added -- we basically doubled the size of the team and we'll double it again. It's that kind of opportunity for us.

因此，就保持相對持平、同比略有上升、與市場低迷相比持平而言，這可能為我們帶來比其他人更好的業績。所以我們補充說——我們基本上將團隊規模擴大了一倍，並且我們將再次擴大一倍。這對我們來說就是這樣的機會。

We'll take our next question from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

我們將接受摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞 (Manan Gosalia) 提出的下一個問題。

My question was around deposit growth level and deposit growth you think you need from here. Should it be in line with loan growth? Or are you happy to let some of the more maybe nontransaction deposits run off? And the reason I ask is because as noted in some of the prior questions, some of your peers are saying that there's more room for Consumer deposits to reprice higher, especially core checking accounts. It sort of sounds like you disagree with that. So wanted to assess how much you might need to respond if competitors act differently.

我的問題是關於存款成長水準以及您認為您需要的存款成長。是否應該與貸款成長保持一致？或者您願意讓一些可能更多的非交易存款流失？我之所以問這個問題，是因為正如之前的一些問題所指出的，一些同行表示，消費者存款有更大的空間重新定價更高，特別是核心支票帳戶。聽起來你似乎不同意這一點。因此想要評估如果競爭對手採取不同的行為，您可能需要做出多少反應。

So a couple of things. One, just broad based, we have a $1.9 trillion of deposits and $1 trillion of loans. So we have a tremendously high deposit base. But also, if you think about -- if you look at the Slide 5 or whatever, as we show the deposits by business. In the banking business, Global Banking, I think 6 quarters, we've been relatively flat, so -- and starting to grow off of that. That is fully priced. And it's not like Corporate Treasury way around to -- talk to you about what you're paying in a noninterest-bearing percentage that has drifted down, the amount they hold in excess of that, part of that to pay fees has been relatively stable.

有幾件事。第一，就廣泛而言，我們有 1.9 兆美元的存款和 1 兆美元的貸款。所以我們擁有非常高的存款基礎。而且，如果您考慮一下 - 如果您查看投影片 5 或其他內容，正如我們按業務顯示的存款一樣。在銀行業務、全球銀行業務方面，我認為六個季度以來，我們一直相對持平，因此 - 並且開始從中成長。那是完全定價的。這不像企業財務部那樣——跟你談論你所支付的無息百分比已經下降，他們持有的超過這個百分比的金額，其中一部分用於支付費用一直相對穩定。

And so we feel very good about that. If you look at Wealth Management. Basically, all the movement was made -- has been made pretty much to the higher rate environment, i.e., buying treasury securities directly. If you look at our Wealth Management business, the amount of short-term cash-oriented type investments, money market funds, et cetera, treasuries, et cetera, has gone from like $500 billion to $700 billion or $800 billion over the last several -- last couple of years. So that move is taking place. And then -- and so the rest of it is now in a relatively stable base, you can see those numbers flat.

所以我們對此感覺非常好。如果你看看財富管理。基本上，所有的變動都是為了更高的利率環境，也就是直接購買國債。如果你看看我們的財富管理業務，短期現金導向投資、貨幣市場基金等、國債等的金額在過去幾年中已經從 5000 億美元增加到 7000 億美元或 8000 億美元 - - 過去幾年。所以這一舉動正在發生。然後——所以剩下的部分現在處於相對穩定的基礎上，你可以看到這些數字持平。

If you go to the Consumer side, there's basically 2 or 3 things. One is, in the medium income households plus or minus, you're seeing the slow spend down, even though they still have multiples of what they had pre-pandemic in our accounts. And even though that's a small part of the overall deposit base, there's still a slow trend where that's drifting down as all the things you read about go on. And the higher end part of that base, in a broad Consumer base, they're actually below the pandemic by about 20%. And that's because they move the money into the market, and you can see that in some of the preferred category pricing.

如果你去消費者方面，基本上有兩三件事。一是，在中等收入家庭中，你會看到支出緩慢下降，儘管他們的帳戶中的金額仍然是疫情前的數倍。儘管這只是整體存款基礎的一小部分，但隨著您讀到的所有內容的繼續，仍然存在緩慢下降的趨勢。而這個基礎的高端部分，在廣泛的消費者基礎中，他們實際上比大流行低了約 20%。這是因為他們將資金轉移到市場，你可以在一些首選類別的定價中看到這一點。

So where people think about checking and money markets in this, we think -- I always have thought about it a little more straightforward, which is transactional cash and investment cash. The investment cash has largely been resuited across the businesses. The transactional cash holds because it's money in motion moving every day. And for our Consumer business, that's represented by the $0.5 trillion of checking account balance that you can see on the page, with some modest amounts in money markets and stuff that are carried as the cushion people have. And if they move the money in the market, they've moved it.

因此，當人們考慮支票和貨幣市場時，我們認為——我總是想得更簡單一點，那就是交易現金和投資現金。投資現金大部分已被各業務部門收回。交易現金之所以能夠持有，是因為它是每天都在流動的資金。對於我們的消費者業務來說，這表現為您可以在頁面上看到的 0.5 兆美元的支票帳戶餘額，以及貨幣市場上的一些適度金額以及人們作為緩衝的東西。如果他們在市場上轉移資金，他們就已經轉移了。

And so we're watching Consumer because there's a little more drifting there, and it's up $250 billion since pre-pandemic. And you're saying you have the dynamics of loans, student loan repayments starting, that's 1 million of our customers pay student loans. You have the dynamics of interest rate impacts on cash carry of loan balances, so that's higher. And that will sort out, but it takes a lot longer. That's across 37 million people, so it's -- the impact we'll have to sort through. And so we feel good about it.

所以我們正在關註消費者，因為那裡有更多的漂移，而且自大流行前以來已經增加了 2500 億美元。你說你有貸款的動態，學生貸款償還開始了，我們有 100 萬客戶支付學生貸款。利率對貸款餘額現金結轉的動態影響，因此更高。這會解決問題，但需要更長的時間。這涉及 3700 萬人，所以這是我們必須理清的影響。所以我們對此感覺良好。

But I think people look by category and this and that, you have to think about more how a customer, or just a business or consumer behaves. And what we've seen is them adjusting their behavior based on their household circumstances. And largely through the system and most of it coming a little bit slower in consumer just because of the natural question that they're -- if there are a lot of stimulus win in those accounts, what do I do with it over time, and now they're doing something with it.

但我認為人們會以類別來看待，你必須多考慮客​​戶，或只是企業或消費者的行為方式。我們看到的是他們根據家庭狀況調整自己的行為。很大程度上是透過系統，其中大部分在消費者中的速度有點慢，只是因為他們自然會問——如果這些帳戶中有很多刺激措施，隨著時間的推移，我該如何處理它，以及現在他們正在用它做一些事情。

Got it. That's helpful detail. So I guess just in terms of deposit growth from here, would you still prefer to grow deposits in line with loans? Or is there a little bit more room for that to come down?

知道了。這是有用的細節。所以我想就目前的存款成長而言，您是否仍然希望存款與貸款保持一致？或是有更多的下降空間嗎？

We prefer to grow deposits in line with customer growth and activity. So in the last 4 quarters, in Consumer, I think we're up another 900,000 net new checking accounts, not -- which average balance is around $11,000. They come in at lower than that, mature up to that. We grow -- we have transactional banking business for all types of customers, and we grow it irrespective of it. That produces $2 trillion. You have a loan business to customers, that produces $1 trillion. And that difference then is a wonderful thing to have every day.

我們更願意根據客戶的成長和活動來增加存款。因此，在過去 4 個季度中，在消費者領域，我認為我們又增加了 90 萬個淨新支票帳戶，平均餘額約為 11,000 美元。他們進來的時候比這個低，成熟到那個程度。我們不斷成長——我們為所有類型的客戶提供交易銀行業務，無論情況如何，我們都會不斷發展。這將產生 2 兆美元。您的客戶貸款業務產生了 1 兆美元的收入。那麼每天都能擁有這種差異是一件美好的事情。

We'll take our next question from Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer.

我們將回答克里斯·科托夫斯基和奧本海默提出的下一個問題。

I've been looking at your average balance sheet on Page 8 of the supplement, and I noticed that in this quarter, your overall yield on earning assets was up 20 basis points, and lo and behold, the yield on interest-bearing liabilities was also up 20 basis points. I'm curious was there some benefit unusual for lower amortization or something like that? Or is it just a function of that -- behind all the moving parts of balances better than you thought?

我一直在查看補充第8頁上你們的平均資產負債表，我注意到，在這個季度，你們的生息資產總體收益率上升了20個基點，你瞧，帶息負債的收益率是也上漲20個基點。我很好奇較低的攤銷或類似的東西是否有一些不尋常的好處？或者它只是天平所有移動部件背後的功能，比您想像的更好？

Well, I don't think it was an amortization issue. I think it was just the way the entire balance sheet works across assets, liabilities when you think about all the various moving pieces. So I don't think there's anything particularly notable there.

嗯，我不認為這是攤銷問題。我認為，當你考慮到所有不同的移動部分時，這就是整個資產負債表在資產和負債方面的運作方式。所以我認為沒有什麼特別值得注意的地方。

Okay. No, it's just stunning with all the moving pieces how the earning asset yield and the liability yields really moved in tandem.

好的。不，令人震驚的是，所有變化的部分都是獲利資產收益率和負債收益率真正同步變化的。

For our final question today, we have a follow-up from Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

對於今天的最後一個問題，我們有來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja 的後續報道。

Brian, trading has grown nicely in equities. You've had -- you said it was led by financing. Is there room in your balance sheet from a capital standpoint to keep growing that? And second question related to trading would be, in your guidance on NII for next year, what are you assuming for trading NII in there?

布萊恩，股票交易成長良好。你說過－你說這是由融資主導的。從資本角度來看，您的資產負債表是否還有持續成長的空間？與交易相關的第二個問題是，在您明年對 NII 的指導中，您對其中的 NII 交易有何假設？

Let me just hit the first one, and Alastair can get the second one. The capacity, if you think about the constraint on RWA, as you know, Vivek and your experience in business, that equity financing is not RWA intense. So -- but it is size intense. Now when you look at us with our supplementary leverage ratio, 100-plus points over the requirements, we have lots of room on the asset size, but the return on equity, return on the risk in that business is very strong. So Jim and the team have done a good job, and Sue for the equities side. And we continue to experience.

讓我打第一個，阿拉斯泰爾可以打第二個。如果你考慮 RWA 的限制，就如你所知，Vivek 和你的商業經驗，股權融資的能力並不強。所以——但它的規模很大。現在當你看我們的補充槓桿率，超過要求100多點時，我們的資產規模還有很大的空間，但股本回報率、該業務的風險回報率非常強​​。所以吉姆和他的團隊做得很好，而蘇則負責股票方面。我們繼續體驗。

So there's plenty of room. And in fact, we have brought the balance sheet up by over $200 billion largely due to the financing side. A lot of that due to equities, and we can continue to do that if the clients need the capabilities in the product. So that's a simple answer. Yes, there's a lot of capacity, and largely driven by our huge capital base and our effect -- on all the size measures, we're way over the requirements. I think 100 basis points on that is probably almost $50 billion of overage. So you have a lot of room to go.

所以有足夠的空間。事實上，我們的資產負債表增加了超過 2,000 億美元，這主要歸功於融資方面。這很大程度上歸功於股票，如果客戶需要產品的功能，我們可以繼續這樣做。這是一個簡單的答案。是的，我們有很大的產能，這在很大程度上是由我們龐大的資本基礎和我們的影響所驅動的——在所有規模衡量標準上，我們遠遠超出了要求。我認為 100 個基點可能會導致近 500 億美元的超額。所以你有很大的空間可以去。

And then, Vivek, in terms of the NII guidance, we include Global Markets in there. So it's just part of a big, diversified portfolio. I think we would point to, Global Markets remains liability sensitive. You can see that in the way NII has come down in '21 and '22 and into '23 with rates going up. So it will perform according to the rate curve. And then we may put a little bit of modest balance sheet growth in there, as Brian pointed out, just to continue investing in the business. But it's in the NII guide, and it will follow the forward curve.

然後，Vivek，就 NII 指南而言，我們將全球市場納入其中。所以它只是一個龐大的多元化投資組合的一部分。我認為我們會指出，全球市場仍然對責任敏感。您可以看到，NII 在 21 年和 22 年有所下降，並在 23 年內隨著利率上升而下降。所以它會根據速率曲線執行。然後，正如布萊恩指出的那樣，我們可能會在其中進行一些適度的資產負債表增長，只是為了繼續投資該業務。但它在 NII 指南中，並且將遵循遠期曲線。

Well, thank you for joining us. Just in closing, I'd go back to the key points. Strong earnings for the company. Earnings growth year-over-year for the 3 months and 9 months, in double digit. The returns of 15% of tangible common equity are very strong. We have the capital to meet the new capital rules as proposed before any mitigation, before any changes in those rules. And we're returning 15% on that capital today. So we feel good about the path ahead to the company.

嗯，謝謝您加入我們。最後，我想回到關鍵點。公司獲利強勁。 3 個月和 9 個月的獲利年增均為兩位數。 15%的有形普通股的回報非常強勁。在任何緩解措施之前、在這些規則發生任何變化之前，我們有足夠的資本來滿足擬議的新資本規則。今天我們將獲得該資本 15% 的回報。因此，我們對公司的未來前景感到滿意。

We continue to do it the old fashioned way, growing our clients, growing our revenues from those clients and driving responsible growth. Thank you.

我們繼續以老式的方式行事，發展我們的客戶，增加我們從這些客戶那裡獲得的收入，並推動負責任的成長。謝謝。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。