美國銀行 (BAC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Bank of America earnings announcement. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call will be recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎收看今天的美國銀行收益公告。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話將被錄音。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Lee McEntire. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興將今天的節目轉交給 Lee McEntire。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning. Welcome. Thank you for joining the call to review the fourth quarter results. I know it's a busy day with lots of banks reporting and we appreciate your interest. I trust everybody has had a chance to review our earnings release documents. They're available, including the earnings presentation that we'll be referring to during the call, on the Investor Relations section of the bankofamerica.com website.

謝謝你。早上好。歡迎。感謝您加入審查第四季度業績的電話會議。我知道今天很忙，很多銀行都在報告，感謝您的關注。我相信每個人都有機會查看我們的收益發布文件。它們可以在 bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分獲得，包括我們將在電話會議期間提到的收益介紹。

I'm going to first turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Moynihan, for some opening comments and then ask Alastair Borthwick, our CFO, to cover some other elements of the quarter.

我將首先將電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Brian Moynihan，聽取一些開場白，然後請我們的首席財務官 Alastair Borthwick 介紹本季度的其他一些內容。

Before I turn the call over to Brian, let me remind you that we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

在我將電話轉給布賴恩之前，讓我提醒您，我們可能會在電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述並參考非 GAAP 財務指標。前瞻性陳述基於管理層當前的預期和假設，這些預期和假設受到風險和不確定因素的影響。

Factors that may cause actual results to materially differ from expectations are detailed in our earnings materials and SEC filings available on our website. Information about our non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to U.S. GAAP, can also be found in our earnings materials that are available on the website.

可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素在我們網站上提供的收益材料和 SEC 文件中有詳細說明。有關我們的非 GAAP 財務措施的信息，包括與美國 GAAP 的調節，也可以在我們網站上提供的收益材料中找到。

So with that, take it away, Brian.

所以，把它拿走，布賴恩。

Thank you, Lee, and thank all of you for joining us this morning. I am starting on Slide 2 of the earnings presentation. During the fourth quarter of 2022, our team once again delivered responsible growth for our shareholders. We reported $7.1 billion of net income after tax or $0.85 per diluted share. We grew revenue 11% year-over-year and delivered our sixth straight quarter of operating leverage. And again, we delivered a strong 16% return on tangible common equity.

謝謝你，李，感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我從收益演示的幻燈片 2 開始。 2022 年第四季度，我們的團隊再次為股東實現了負責任的增長。我們報告了 71 億美元的稅後淨收入或每股攤薄收益 0.85 美元。我們的收入同比增長 11%，並連續第六個季度實現經營槓桿。再一次，我們實現了 16% 的有形普通股回報率。

If you move to Slide 3, we list the highlights of the quarter, which have been pretty consistent throughout the year. We drove good organic customer activity and saw significant increases in net interest income, which all helped drive operating leverage. Revenue increased year-over-year 11%. It was led by a 29% improvement in net interest income, coupled with a strong 27% growth in sales and trading results by Jimmy DeMare and the team. This growth will exceed the impacts of lower investment banking fees and the impact of bond and equity market valuations on asset management fees in our wealth management business. The positive contributions of NII and sales and trading were also enough to overcome a decline in service charges driven by the fully implemented changes in NSF and overdraft fees in our consumer business.

如果你轉到幻燈片 3，我們列出了本季度的亮點，這些亮點在全年都非常一致。我們推動了良好的有機客戶活動，淨利息收入顯著增加，這些都有助於提高經營槓桿。收入同比增長 11%。淨利息收入增長 29%，加上 Jimmy DeMare 和團隊的銷售和交易業績強勁增長 27%。這一增長將超過較低的投資銀行費用的影響以及債券和股票市場估值對我們財富管理業務資產管理費用的影響。 NII 以及銷售和交易的積極貢獻也足以克服服務費用的下降，這是由於我們的消費者業務中 NSF 和透支費用的全面實施變化所推動的。

Importantly, we improved our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio by 25 basis in quarter 4 to 11.2%, and we achieved that without changing our business strategies. We're well above our both -- our current 10.4% minimum CET1 requirement and above the requirement that we'll have beginning next year in January of 10.9%.

重要的是，我們在第 4 季度將我們的普通股一級比率提高了 25 個基點，達到 11.2%，並且我們在不改變我們的業務戰略的情況下實現了這一目標。我們遠遠高於我們目前 10.4% 的最低 CET1 要求和我們將於明年 1 月開始的 10.9% 的要求。

We added to our buffer of both growing loans and reducing outstanding shares in the quarter. On a year-over-year comparative basis, both net income and EPS are up modestly with strong operating leverage more than offsetting higher provision expense. The higher provision expense is driven primarily by reserve builds this quarter, a result of loan growth in our portfolios and also our conservative waiting in our reserve setting methodology, which I'll touch on later.

我們增加了本季度增加貸款和減少流通股的緩衝。與去年同期相比，淨收入和每股收益均小幅上升，強勁的經營槓桿抵消了較高的撥備費用。較高的撥備費用主要是由本季度的準備金增加推動的，這是我們投資組合中貸款增長的結果，也是我們對準備金設定方法的保守等待，我將在稍後談到。

Last year, we had large reserve releases. Net charge-offs increased this quarter, but asset quality remains strong. Charge-offs are well above both the beginning of the pandemic as well as longer-term historical levels. And again, I'll touch on this in a few pages. All that being said, the simple way to think about it is pretax, pre-provision income, which neutralizes these reserve actions, grew 23% year-over-year.

去年，我們釋放了大量儲備。本季度淨沖銷有所增加，但資產質量依然強勁。沖銷遠高於大流行開始時和長期歷史水平。再一次，我將在幾頁中談到這一點。綜上所述，考慮它的簡單方法是抵消這些準備金行動的稅前撥備前收入同比增長 23%。

Let's turn to Slide 4. Slide 4 shows the year-over-year annualized results. And quarter 4 results were a nice finish to a successful year in which we produced $27.5 billion in net income on 7% revenue growth and a 4% operating leverage. While the year was strong, full year earnings declined as a result of loan loss reserve actions. For the full year of 2022, again, we built about $370 million reserves. And by contrast, last year, in '21, we released $6.8 billion of reserves. Isolating those changes, again, you'll see that PPNR grew a strong 14% over 2021. As I said earlier, the themes were characterized by good organic customer activity, strong NII and always helped by years of responsible growth.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 4。幻燈片 4 顯示了同比年化結果。第 4 季度的業績為成功的一年畫上了圓滿的句號，在這一年中，我們以 7% 的收入增長和 4% 的運營槓桿實現了 275 億美元的淨收入。儘管這一年表現強勁，但由於貸款損失準備金行動，全年收益有所下降。對於 2022 年全年，我們再次建立了約 3.7 億美元的儲備。相比之下，去年，在 21 年，我們釋放了 68 億美元的儲備金。再次分離這些變化，您會看到 PPNR 比 2021 年增長了 14%。正如我之前所說，這些主題的特點是良好的有機客戶活動、強勁的 NII，並且始終得到多年負責任增長的幫助。

Slide 5 highlights some of the attributes of organic growth for the quarter and the year. This, plus the slides that we include each earnings materials in our appendix, would show digital trends and organic growth highlights across all the businesses. Our investments over the past several years in our people, tools and resources for our customers and our teammates as well as renovating our facilities have allowed us to continue to enhance the customer experience to record high levels and fuel organic growth. In the fourth quarter of 2022, we added 195,000 net new checking accounts, bringing the total for the year to more than 1 million. This is twice the rate of addition that we had in 2019 in periods before the pandemic.

幻燈片 5 強調了本季度和本年度有機增長的一些特徵。這一點，加上我們在附錄中包含每個收益材料的幻燈片，將顯示所有業務的數字趨勢和有機增長亮點。過去幾年，我們為客戶和團隊成員在人員、工具和資源方面的投資，以及設施的翻新，使我們能夠繼續提升客戶體驗，創下歷史新高，並推動有機增長。 2022 年第四季度，我們淨新增支票賬戶 195,000 個，使全年總數超過 100 萬個。這是我們在 2019 年大流行之前的時期的兩倍。

This net growth has led to 10% increase in our customer checking accounts since the pandemic while keeping that 92% of our accounts are primary checking accounts of the household, and the average opening balance, not the average balance, but the average opening balance of these new accounts is over $5,000.

自大流行以來，這種淨增長導致我們的客戶支票賬戶增加了 10%，同時保持我們 92% 的賬戶是家庭的主要支票賬戶，平均期初餘額，不是平均餘額，而是平均期初餘額這些新賬戶超過 5,000 美元。

We also produced more than 1 million new credit cards, the sixth consecutive quarter of doing that, bringing us back to levels that we generate pre-pandemic. Credit quality, you can see on Appendix Slides 28, for consumer remains very high in new originations. Verified digital users grew to 56 million with 73% of our consumer households fully digitally active. We have more than 1 billion log-ins to our digital platforms each month, and that's been going on for some time now. Digital sales are also growing, and they now represent half of our sales in the consumer business. Erica, our virtual digital system, is now handling 145 million interactions this past quarter and has passed 1 billion interactions since its introduction just a few years ago. This saves a lot of work for our team.

我們還生產了超過 100 萬張新信用卡，這是連續第六個季度這樣做，使我們回到了大流行前的水平。信用質量，您可以在附錄幻燈片 28 中看到，對於消費者來說，在新的起源中仍然非常高。經過驗證的數字用戶增長到 5600 萬，其中 73% 的消費者家庭完全數字化。我們每個月都有超過 10 億次登錄到我們的數字平台，而且這種情況已經持續了一段時間。數字銷售額也在增長，它們現在占我們消費者業務銷售額的一半。我們的虛擬數字系統 Erica 在上個季度處理了 1.45 億次交互，自幾年前推出以來已經超過了 10 億次交互。這為我們的團隊節省了大量工作。

When you move to the GWIM business, the wealth management business, our advisers grew by 800 in the second half of the year. Our team added 28,000 net new households across Merrill and the Private Bank in 2022. We experienced solid net flows despite the turbulence of markets. By the way, during 2022, our average Merrill household opened with balances of $1.6 million to get very high-quality account openings.

當你轉向財富管理業務 GWIM 業務時，我們的顧問在下半年增加了 800 人。 2022 年，我們的團隊在 Merrill 和私人銀行新增了 28,000 個淨家庭。儘管市場動盪，我們仍經歷了穩定的淨流量。順便說一下，在 2022 年期間，我們美林家庭的平均開戶餘額為 160 萬美元，以獲得非常高質量的開戶。

On flows, when confined across all our investment platforms in our consumer wealth management business, we saw $125 billion of net client flows this year. Additionally, we continue to see increased activity around both investments in our GWIM business and our banking products. Diversified bank element added a strong differentiator for us as a company. It also supports the healthy pretax margin. This helped the GWIM business deliver strong operating leverage for the year, and they grew net revenue and net income to records.

在流量方面，當局限在我們消費者財富管理業務的所有投資平台時，我們今年看到了 1250 億美元的淨客戶流量。此外，我們繼續看到圍繞 GWIM 業務和銀行產品的投資活動有所增加。多元化的銀行元素為我們公司增添了強大的差異化因素。它還支持健康的稅前利潤率。這幫助 GWIM 業務在這一年實現了強大的運營槓桿，並且他們將淨收入和淨收入增長到創紀錄的水平。

In our Global Banking business, we saw solid loan production and growing use of our digital platform throughout the year and added new clients to our portfolio. As you well know, the overall investment banking fee pool was down. However, we continue to deepen and expand client relationships with our build-out of commercial bankers. Our global treasury services business also grew revenue 38% year-over-year as a result of both rates as well as fees for service on cash management.

在我們的全球銀行業務中，全年我們看到穩定的貸款產生和數字平台的使用不斷增加，並為我們的投資組合增加了新客戶。如您所知，整體投資銀行費用池下降了。然而，我們繼續深化和擴大與商業銀行家的客戶關係。由於現金管理服務的費率和費用，我們的全球資金服務業務收入也同比增長 38%。

In Global Markets, we had our highest fourth quarter sales and trading performance on record, growing 27% from last year ex-DVA. This was led by a strong performance in our macro FICC businesses, where we made continuous investments in the past 18 months. Equities had a record quarter 4 performance as well.

在全球市場，我們第四季度的銷售和交易業績創歷史新高，比去年（不包括 DVA）增長 27%。這是由我們在過去 18 個月中持續投資的宏觀 FICC 業務的強勁表現帶動的。股票在第 4 季度的表現也創下歷史新高。

Let's move to Slide 6 and talk about operating leverage. As I've said to you for many years, one of the primary goals of this company, which is an important part of our shareholder return model, has been to drive operating leverage. Those efforts, including investments made for the future, coupled with revenue growth, produced 18 straight quarters of operating leverage, as you can see, leading up to the pandemic.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 6，談談經營槓桿。正如我多年來對你們所說的那樣，這家公司的主要目標之一是提高運營槓桿率，這是我們股東回報模式的重要組成部分。正如您所看到的，這些努力，包括為未來所做的投資，加上收入增長，連續 18 個季度產生了經營槓桿，導致了大流行。

Beginning last year, in the third quarter of '21 -- 2021, I told you that we now started achieving operating leverage and got back on streak, 6 M or 6 quarters of operating leverage despite all the things that are going on out there, and the team continues to drive towards that for 2023.

從去年開始，在 2021 年第三季度 - 2021 年，我告訴過你，我們現在開始實現運營槓桿，並恢復了連續增長，600 萬或 6 個季度的運營槓桿，儘管那裡發生了所有事情，團隊將繼續朝著 2023 年的目標努力。

So I thought I'd spend a few minutes on a discussion of topics that's been important to, as we've talked about, investors over the last couple of months, deposits and credit. So let's go to Slide 7. First, on deposits. There are several factors impacting deposits as our industry works through and the economy works through an impressive period, a surge in deposits from the pandemic-related stimulus, the impact of monetary -- unprecedented monetary easing, impact of high inflation and then the reversal of that with unprecedented pace and size of rate hikes and monetary tightening.

所以我想我應該花幾分鐘討論一下過去幾個月對投資者來說很重要的話題，存款和信貸。那麼讓我們轉到幻燈片 7。首先，關於存款。有幾個因素影響存款，因為我們的行業和經濟正在經歷一個令人印象深刻的時期，與流行病相關的刺激措施導致存款激增，貨幣的影響 - 前所未有的貨幣寬鬆政策，高通脹的影響以及隨後的逆轉加息和貨幣緊縮的速度和規模前所未有。

But on a year-on-year basis, average deposits of $1.93 trillion are down 5%. This reflects the market trends, and in fact, it reflects high tax payments to the governments in quarter 2 2022. In addition, as we move forward through 2022, customers with excess cash, investment-oriented cash, saw yield as rates increase for money market funds, direct treasuries and other products.

但與去年同期相比，1.93 萬億美元的平均存款下降了 5%。這反映了市場趨勢，事實上，它反映了 2022 年第 2 季度向政府繳納的高額稅款。此外，隨著我們向前邁進到 2022 年，擁有過剩現金、投資型現金的客戶看到收益率隨著貨幣利率的上升而增加市場基金、直接國債和其他產品。

It's probably more relevant to discuss the more near-term trends. Comparing third quarter of '22 to fourth quarter of '22, average deposits were down 1.9%. Noninterest-bearing deposits are down 8%, while interest-bearing deposits are up 2%. The mix shift is especially pronounced in treasury services in the Global Banking business. Corporate treasurers manage $500 billion of deposits they have with us. The impact of their activities has a change in the mix.

討論更近期的趨勢可能更相關。將 22 年第三季度與 22 年第四季度進行比較，平均存款下降了 1.9%。無息存款下降了 8%，而有息存款上升了 2%。這種混合轉變在全球銀行業務的財資服務中尤為明顯。公司財務主管管理著他們在我們這裡的 5000 億美元存款。他們活動的影響發生了變化。

On the personal side, you can see the checking account balances floating down a little bit from core expenses and spending while more affluent customers put money into higher-yielding deposits in the market. We do manage all these products differentially. And the discussion of deposits by business segment you can see on Slide 8, and we'll talk through that.

在個人方面，您可以看到支票賬戶餘額從核心支出和支出中略微下降，而更富裕的客戶將資金投入市場上收益率更高的存款。我們確實以不同方式管理所有這些產品。您可以在幻燈片 8 上看到按業務部門劃分的存款討論，我們將討論這個問題。

So this breaks down our deposits in a more near-term trend. In the upper left, you can see the full year across -- for the whole company going across the page in the upper left-hand chart. We also put in the rate hikes that you can see. On the chart, you can see the heavy tax payment outflows in the second quarter. Then we saw the acceleration of rate hikes and deposits to move to products seeking yield in certain customer segments.

因此，這會在更近期的趨勢中打破我們的存款。在左上角，您可以看到整個年度——整個公司在左上角圖表中的整個頁面。我們還加入了您可以看到的加息。在圖表上，您可以看到第二季度大量的稅收流出。然後我們看到加息和存款加速轉向在某些客戶群中尋求收益的產品。

But in large part, what you've seen over the course of the quarter 4 has been stabilization and more normal client activity. Simply put, we ended quarter 4 of '22 with $1.93 trillion in deposits, roughly the overall level as we ended in quarter 3 ending deposit balances.

但在很大程度上，您在第 4 季度看到的是穩定和更正常的客戶活動。簡而言之，我們在 22 年第 4 季度末的存款餘額為 1.93 萬億美元，大致與我們在第 3 季度末的存款餘額持平。

So let's look at those differentiated by business. In consumer, looking at the upper right chart, we show the difference between the movement through the quarter between the balance of low to no interest checking accounts to somewhat higher-yielding nonchecking accounts, money market and saving accounts and a limited portion of CDs.

那麼讓我們來看看那些按業務區分的。在消費者方面，查看右上角的圖表，我們顯示了本季度低息支票賬戶與收益較高的非支票賬戶、貨幣市場和儲蓄賬戶以及有限部分 CD 之間的變動之間的差異。

Across the quarter, we saw a $24 billion decline in total, down 2%. We have seen small declines in customers' continued higher levels of spending, pay down debt and also move money to the brokerage accounts even in this business. Higher wages have offset this. While we saw a decline in quarter 4 deposits in consumer, correspondingly, we also saw brokerage levels of consumer investments increased $11 billion, capturing a good portion of those deposits.

整個季度，我們看到總額下降了 240 億美元，下降了 2%。我們已經看到客戶持續較高的支出水平小幅下降，償還債務，甚至在這項業務中也將資金轉移到經紀賬戶。更高的工資抵消了這一點。雖然我們看到第四季度消費者存款有所下降，但相應地，我們也看到消費者投資的經紀水平增加了 110 億美元，佔據了這些存款的很大一部分。

In general, think of these consumer deposits as being very sticky of $1 trillion. That stickiness, along with net checking account growth, reflect the recognition and the value proposition of a relationship transactional account with our company. It also has -- it reflects industry-leading digital capabilities we offer and the convenience of a nationwide franchise.

一般來說，將這些消費者存款視為 1 萬億美元的非常粘性。這種粘性，連同淨支票賬戶增長，反映了對我們公司關係交易賬戶的認可和價值主張。它還具有 - 它反映了我們提供的行業領先的數字功能以及全國特許經營的便利性。

It also reflects that the customers in our mass market segments have fewer excess cash investment style cash balances. 56% of the $1 trillion in consumer deposits remain in low and no interest checking accounts. And because of all that, overall rate paid in this segment remains low at 6 basis points.

這也反映出我們大眾市場分部的客戶擁有較少的過剩現金投資方式現金結餘。 1 萬億美元的消費者存款中有 56% 仍然存在低息和無息支票賬戶中。正因為如此，該細分市場的總體支付利率仍然很低，只有 6 個基點。

In wealth management, which you can see at the bottom left of the chart, more than $300 billion of deposits became more stable across the fourth quarter. They also -- here, you also witnessed a shift to higher-yielding preferred deposits, as you can see on the labels, from lower-yielding transaction deposits as these customers have more excess cash and move them to seek higher yields.

在圖表左下角的財富管理中，超過 3000 億美元的存款在第四季度變得更加穩定。他們也——在這裡，你也看到了從低收益的交易存款轉向高收益的優先存款，因為這些客戶有更多的多餘現金，並轉向尋求更高的收益。

Early in the quarter, we saw modest declines in balances, but November's rate hikes began to slow and the probability of future rate hikes became less. People had moved their money, and we saw an uptick in balances as we move through the quarter. This reflects the seasonal inflows that happened in the fourth quarter for wealth management clients.

本季度初，我們看到餘額略有下降，但 11 月的加息開始放緩，未來加息的可能性也變小了。人們轉移了他們的錢，隨著我們在本季度的發展，我們看到餘額有所增加。這反映了第四季度財富管理客戶的季節性流入。

At the bottom right chart, you can see the most dynamic part of this equation. Our Global Banking deposit movement moves across $500 billion in customer deposits. The shift here is what drives the mix total for the company. It's pretty typical with the exception that it happened very quickly in quarter 4 driven by the pace of rate hikes.

在右下方的圖表中，您可以看到該等式中最具活力的部分。我們的全球銀行存款流動涉及 5000 億美元的客戶存款。這裡的轉變是推動公司整體發展的動力。這是非常典型的，除了在加息步伐的推動下，它在第 4 季度發生得非常快。

In a rising rate environment, where a company's operational funds are more expensive, we anticipate these changes, particularly in the high liquidity environments as clients use both cash inventory yield, pay down debt or manage their cash for investment yield. We have seen the mix of Global Banking interest-bearing deposits move from 35% last quarter to 45% in quarter 4. And obviously, we're paying higher rates on those deposits to retain them.

在利率上升的環境中，公司的運營資金更加昂貴，我們預計會發生這些變化，特別是在高流動性環境中，因為客戶使用現金庫存收益、償還債務或管理現金以獲得投資收益。我們已經看到全球銀行的計息存款組合從上一季度的 35% 上升到第四季度的 45%。顯然，我們正在為這些存款支付更高的利率以保留它們。

Customer pricing here is customer -- on a customer-to-customer basis based on the depth of relationship, the product usage and many other factors. So overall deposit rates paid as a percent of Fed funds increases are still very favorable to last cycle, even as rates are rising much faster than last cycle. I would note, [belt] to the last cycle, that the Fed increases have been rapid and we'd expect to pay higher rates as we continue to move through the end of the interest rate cycle.

這裡的客戶定價是客戶——基於客戶對客戶的關係深度、產品使用情況和許多其他因素。因此，作為聯邦基金增長的百分比支付的總體存款利率仍然非常有利於上一個週期，即使利率上升速度比上一個週期快得多。我要指出，[帶]到上一個週期，美聯儲的加息速度很快，我們預計隨著利率週期的結束繼續前進，我們將支付更高的利率。

So just remember, while we're paying more for deposits, we also get that on our asset side. That is simply why the NII, net interest income, is up 29% from quarter 4 2022 versus quarter 4 2021.

所以請記住，雖然我們為存款支付了更多費用，但我們也在資產方面獲得了更多。這就是為什麼 NII（淨利息收入）比 2022 年第 4 季度比 2021 年第 4 季度增長 29% 的原因。

Now let's move to the second topic I want to touch on specifically, which is credit. And this begins on Slide 9. First, it is an intellectible truth that our asset quality of our customers remains very healthy. On the other hand, it's impossible to gainsay that the net charge-offs are moving to prepandemic levels. So in the fourth quarter, we saw net charge-offs of $689 million increased $169 million from quarter 3. The increase was driven by both higher commercial and credit card losses. As these charts show, they're still very low in the overall context.

現在讓我們轉到我想具體談的第二個話題，就是信用。這從幻燈片 9 開始。首先，一個顯而易見的事實是，我們客戶的資產質量仍然非常健康。另一方面，不可能否認淨沖銷正在達到大流行前的水平。因此，在第四季度，我們看到淨沖銷額為 6.89 億美元，比第三季度增加了 1.69 億美元。這一增長是由商業和信用卡損失增加所致。正如這些圖表所示，它們在整體環境中仍然很低。

In commercial, we had a few of older company-specific loans but not related or not predictive of any broad trends in the portfolio. These were already reserved for in prior periods, and based on our methodologies, went through charge-off in quarter 4.

在商業領域，我們有一些較舊的公司特定貸款，但與投資組合的任何廣泛趨勢無關或無法預測。這些已經在前幾個時期預留，並且根據我們的方法，在第 4 季度進行了沖銷。

Credit card charge-offs increased in quarter 4 as a result of the flow-through of modest increase in last quarter's late-stage delinquencies. This should continue as we transition off the historic lows in delinquencies to still very low prepandemic levels.

由於上一季度後期拖欠的適度增長，第四季度信用卡沖銷額有所增加。隨著拖欠率從歷史低點過渡到大流行前仍然非常低的水平，這種情況應該會繼續下去。

Provision expense was $1.1 billion in quarter 4. In addition to higher charge-off, provision included roughly $400 million reserve build. This was higher than quarter 3, reflecting good credit card and other loan growth combined with the reserve setting scenario. So let's just stop on the reserve setting scenario.

第 4 季度的撥備費用為 11 億美元。除了更高的沖銷費用外，撥備還包括大約 4 億美元的準備金建設。這高於第 3 季度，反映出良好的信用卡和其他貸款增長以及準備金設定方案。因此，讓我們停止在儲備金設置方案上。

Our scenario -- our baseline scenario contemplates a mild recession. That's the base case of the economic assumptions in the blue chip and other methods we use. But we also add to that a downside scenario. And what this results in is 95% of our reserve methodologies weighted towards a recessionary environment in 2023. That includes higher expectations of inflation leading to depressed GDP and higher unemployment expectations.

我們的情景——我們的基準情景設想溫和衰退。這是藍籌股和我們使用的其他方法中經濟假設的基本情況。但我們還增加了一個不利情況。這導致我們 95% 的儲備方法都傾向於 2023 年的衰退環境。這包括更高的通貨膨脹預期導致 GDP 低迷和更高的失業預期。

This scenario is more conservative than last quarter's scenario. Now to be clear, just to give you a sense of how that scenario plays out, it contemplates a rapid rise in unemployment to peak at 5.5% early this year in 2023 and remain at 5% or above all the way through the end of '24, obviously, much more conservative than the economic estimates that are out there. We included again the updated slides in the appendix on Pages 36 and 37 to highlight differences in our credit portfolios between pre-financial pre-pandemic and current status. We also, again, gave you the new origination statistics for consumer credit on Page 28.

這種情況比上一季度的情況更為保守。現在要明確一點，只是為了讓你了解這種情況如何發生，它預計失業率將在今年年初在 2023 年達到 5.5% 的峰值，並一直保持在 5% 或更高的水平，直到 ' 24，顯然，比現有的經濟估計要保守得多。我們再次在第 36 頁和第 37 頁的附錄中包含了更新後的幻燈片，以強調我們的信貸組合在金融大流行前和當前狀態之間的差異。我們還在第 28 頁再次為您提供了新的消費信貸發起統計數據。

The work the team has done on responsible growth continues to show strong results. From an outsider's view, you don't have to look any further in the Fed stress test results. We've had the lowest net charge-offs for peer banks in 10 of the last 11 stress tests.

該團隊在負責任的增長方面所做的工作繼續顯示出強勁的成果。在外人看來，美聯儲壓力測試結果不用再看。在過去 11 次壓力測試中的 10 次中，我們對同行銀行的淨沖銷額最低。

On Slides 10 to 12, we included some longer-term perspective. We showed long-term trends for commercial net charge-offs, total consumer charge-off rates, and more specifically, credit card charge-off rates. This compares those ratios to pre-financial crisis, during the recovery after the financial crisis, pre-pandemic and then through the pandemic.

在幻燈片 10 到 12 中，我們包含了一些更長期的觀點。我們展示了商業淨註銷率、消費者總註銷率，更具體地說，信用卡註銷率的長期趨勢。將這些比率與金融危機前、金融危機後的複蘇期間、大流行前和大流行期間進行比較。

So that gives you a long-term perspective, which I think keeps in context the idea that we're moving off the bottom in credit cost towards a level which is normalizing to pre-pandemic, but that level is very low in the grand context of banking.

因此，這給了你一個長期的視角，我認為這在上下文中保持了這樣一種觀點，即我們正在從信貸成本的底部向大流行前正常化的水平邁進，但在大背景下這個水平非常低銀行業務。

So before I move it to Alastair, I want to just update a few comments on our consumer behavior. Consumer deposit balances continue to show strong liquidity with the lower cohorts of our consumers continue to hold several multiples of balance that they have as the pandemic began. These balances are drifting down, but they still have plenty of cushion left. And while their spending remains healthy, we continue to see the pace of that year-over-year growth slow.

因此，在我將其移至 Alastair 之前，我只想更新一些關於我們消費者行為的評論。消費者存款餘額繼續顯示出強勁的流動性，我們較低的消費者群體繼續持有大流行開始時的數倍餘額。這些餘額正在下降，但它們仍然有足夠的緩衝空間。雖然他們的支出保持健康，但我們繼續看到同比增長速度放緩。

In the aggregate, in 2022, our consumer spent $4.2 trillion, which outpaced 2021 by 10%. You can see that on Slide 35. Two things to note on that consumer spending pace. There continues to be a slowdown. Year-over-year growth percentage earlier this -- earlier in 2022 were 14% year-over-year. They've now moved to 5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. So what does this spend mean? Well, that level of growth in year-over-year spending is consistent with the low inflation, 2% growth economy, we saw pre-pandemic.

總體而言，2022 年，我們的消費者花費了 4.2 萬億美元，比 2021 年增長了 10%。您可以在幻燈片 35 上看到這一點。關於消費者支出速度需要注意兩點。經濟繼續放緩。今年早些時候——2022 年初的同比增長率為 14%。他們現在在第四季度同比增長了 5%。那麼這筆支出意味著什麼呢？好吧，這種同比增長水平與我們在大流行前看到的低通脹、2% 的經濟增長是一致的。

They're also moving from services to -- from goods to service and experience and spend more money on travel vacations and eating out and things like that. That is a good for unemployment, but continues to maintain service side inflation pressure.

他們也在從服務轉向——從商品轉向服務和體驗，並在旅行度假和外出就餐等方面花費更多的錢。這對失業有利，但繼續維持服務端通脹壓力。

With that, let me pass the mic over to Alastair to go through the rest of the quarter. Alastair?

有了這個，讓我把麥克風交給阿拉斯泰爾，讓他完成本季度的剩餘時間。阿拉斯泰爾？

Okay. Thanks, Brian. And let me start with the balance sheet, and I'll use Slide 13 for this. During the quarter, our balance sheet declined $23 billion to $3.05 trillion driven by modestly lower Global Markets balances. Our average liquidity portfolio declined in the quarter, reflecting the decrease in deposits and securities levels. And that $868 billion, it still remains $300 billion above our prepandemic levels.

好的。謝謝，布萊恩。讓我從資產負債表開始，為此我將使用幻燈片 13。本季度，我們的資產負債表減少 230 億美元至 3.05 萬億美元，原因是全球市場餘額略有下降。本季度我們的平均流動性投資組合有所下降，反映出存款和證券水平的下降。而這 8680 億美元，仍然比大流行前的水平高出 3000 億美元。

Shareholders' equity increased $3.7 billion from the third quarter as earnings were only partially offset by capital we distributed to shareholders and roughly $700 million in redemption of some preferred securities. We paid out $1.8 in common dividends. And we bought back $1 billion of shares, which was $600 million above those issued for employees in the quarter. AOCI was little changed in the quarter as a small benefit from lower mortgage rates was more than offset by a change in our annual pension revaluation.

股東權益比第三季度增加了 37 億美元，因為收益僅被我們分配給股東的資本和約 7 億美元的一些優先證券贖回所抵消。我們支付了 1.8 美元的普通股息。我們回購了 10 億美元的股票，比本季度為員工發行的股票高出 6 億美元。本季度 AOCI 幾乎沒有變化，因為較低的抵押貸款利率帶來的小好處被我們年度養老金重估的變化所抵消。

With regard to regulatory capital, our supplementary leverage ratio increased to 5.9% versus our minimum requirement of 5%. And that obviously leaves capacity for balance sheet growth, and our TLAC ratio remains comfortably above our requirements.

在監管資本方面，我們的補充槓桿率從我們的最低要求 5% 提高到 5.9%。這顯然為資產負債表增長留下了空間，我們的 TLAC 比率仍然輕鬆高於我們的要求。

Okay. Let's turn to Slide 14 and talk about CET1, where, as you can see, our capital remains strong as our CET1 level improved to $180 billion and our CET1 ratio improved 25 basis points to 11.2%. That means in the past 2 quarters, we've improved our CET1 ratio by 74 basis points as we've added to our management buffer on top of both our current and 2024 requirements.

好的。讓我們轉到幻燈片 14 並談談 CET1，如您所見，我們的資本仍然強勁，因為我們的 CET1 水平提高到 1800 億美元，我們的 CET1 比率提高 25 個基點至 11.2%。這意味著在過去的兩個季度中，我們將 CET1 比率提高了 74 個基點，因為我們在當前和 2024 年要求的基礎上增加了管理緩衝。

So we can walk through the drivers of the CET1 ratio this quarter, and you can see earnings net of preferred dividends generated 43 basis points, common dividends used 11 basis points, and gross share repurchases used 6 basis points. And while the balance sheet was down, loan growth drove a modest increase in RWA using 3 basis points of CET1. So we were able to support our loan growth and return capital and add to our capital buffer in the same quarter.

因此，我們可以了解本季度 CET1 比率的驅動因素，您可以看到扣除優先股股息後的收益產生了 43 個基點，普通股息產生了 11 個基點，股票回購總額產生了 6 個基點。雖然資產負債表下降，但貸款增長推動 RWA 使用 CET1 的 3 個基點適度增長。因此，我們能夠支持我們的貸款增長和資本回報，並在同一季度增加我們的資本緩衝。

Let's spend a minute on the loan growth by focusing on average loans on Slide 15. And here, you can see average loans grew 10% year-over-year, driven by credit card and commercial loan improvement. On a more near-term linked-quarter basis, loans grew at a slower 2% annualized pace just driven by credit card.

讓我們通過關注幻燈片 15 上的平均貸款來花一分鐘時間了解貸款增長。在這裡，您可以看到平均貸款同比增長 10%，這主要受信用卡和商業貸款改善的推動。在更近期的環比基礎上，僅受信用卡推動，貸款年化增速放緩至 2%。

The credit card growth reflects increased marketing, enhanced offers and reopening of our financial centers, delivering higher levels of account openings. Mortgage balances were up modestly year-over-year, and linked quarter were driven by slower prepayments. Commercial growth reflects a good balance of Global Markets lending as well as commercial real estate and to a lesser degree, custom lending in our Private Bank and Merrill businesses.

信用卡的增長反映了營銷的增加、優惠的增加和我們金融中心的重新開放，帶來了更高水平的開戶。抵押貸款餘額同比小幅上升，相關季度受到預付款放緩的推動。商業增長反映了全球市場貸款和商業房地產的良好平衡，並在較小程度上反映了我們私人銀行和美林業務中的定制貸款。

Turning to Slide 16 and net interest income. On a GAAP, non-FTE basis, NII in Q4 was $14.7 billion, and the FTE NII number was $14.8 billion. Focusing on FTE, net interest income increased $3.3 billion from Q4 of '21 or 29% driven by a few notable components.

轉向幻燈片 16 和淨利息收入。根據 GAAP，非 FTE，第四季度的 NII 為 147 億美元，FTE NII 為 148 億美元。專注於全職員工，淨利息收入比 21 年第四季度增加了 33 億美元，增長 29%，主要受一些顯著因素的推動。

First, nearly $3.6 billion of the year-over-year improvement in NII was driven by interest rates. Year-over-year, the average Fed funds rates has increased 359 basis points, driving up the interest earned on our variable rate assets. Relative to that Fed funds move, the rate paid on our total deposits increased 59 basis points to 62. And focusing just on interest-bearing deposit rates paid, the increase is 91.

首先，近 36 億美元的 NII 同比增長是由利率推動的。與去年同期相比，平均聯邦基金利率上升了 359 個基點，推高了我們的可變利率資產所賺取的利息。相對於聯邦基金的變動，我們總存款的支付利率增加了 59 個基點，達到 62。僅關注支付的有息存款利率，增幅為 91。

So even while Fed funds rates have increased 140 basis points more than the last cycle, at this point, our cumulative pass-through percentage rates still remain lower in this cycle. That includes an increase in the pass-through rates in the past 90 days due to the unprecedented period of rate hikes.

因此，即使聯邦基金利率比上一個週期增加了 140 個基點，但在這一點上，我們的累計傳遞百分比率在這個週期中仍然較低。這包括由於史無前例的加息時期，過去 90 天的轉嫁率有所上升。

Included in the rate benefit was $1 billion improvement in the quarterly securities premium amortization. Long-term interest rates on mortgages have increased 345 basis points from the fourth quarter of '21, which has driven down refinancing of mortgage assets and therefore, slowed the recognition of premium amortization expense recognized in our securities portfolio.

利率收益中包括 10 億美元的季度證券溢價攤銷改善。抵押貸款的長期利率比 21 年第四季度增加了 345 個基點，這降低了抵押資產的再融資，因此減緩了我們證券投資組合中確認的溢價攤銷費用的確認。

The second contributor is loan growth net of securities paydowns, and that's added nearly $400 million to the year-over-year improvement. And lastly, partially offsetting the banking book NII growth just described was higher funding costs for our Global Markets inventory.

第二個貢獻者是扣除證券償還後的貸款增長，這為同比增長增加了近 4 億美元。最後，部分抵消了剛剛描述的銀行賬戶 NII 增長是我們全球市場庫存的更高融資成本。

Now that is passed on to clients through our noninterest market-making line, so it's revenue neutral to both sales and trading and to total revenue. And as you can see in our material, Global Markets NII is down $660 million year-over-year.

現在它通過我們的非利息做市商線傳遞給客戶，因此它對銷售和交易以及總收入都是中性的。正如您在我們的材料中看到的那樣，全球市場 NII 同比下降 6.6 億美元。

Okay. Turning to a linked quarter discussion. NII is up $933 million from the third quarter driven largely by interest rates. That $933 million increase included a $372 million decline in our Global Markets NII. The net interest yield was 2.22%, and that improved 55 basis points from the fourth quarter of '21. Nearly 30% of that improvement occurred in the most recent quarter with the primary driver being the benefit from higher interest rates, which includes a 13 basis point benefit from lower premium amortization. As you will note, excluding Global Markets, our net interest yield was up 89 basis points to 2.81%.

好的。轉向鏈接季度討論。 NII 較第三季度增長 9.33 億美元，主要受利率推動。這 9.33 億美元的增長包括我們全球市場 NII 減少的 3.72 億美元。淨利息收益率為 2.22%，比 21 年第四季度提高了 55 個基點。近 30% 的改善發生在最近一個季度，主要驅動因素是利率上升帶來的好處，其中包括保費攤銷減少帶來的 13 個基點的好處。正如您所注意到的，不包括全球市場，我們的淨利息收益率上升了 89 個基點，達到 2.81%。

Looking forward, I would make a couple of comments. As I do every quarter, let me provide the important caveats regarding our NII guidance. Our caveats include assumptions that interest rates in the forward curve materialize, and we anticipate card loans will decline seasonally from holiday spend paydowns. And otherwise, we expect modest loan growth. We expect a seasonal decline in Global Banking deposits and that the other deposit mix shifts experienced in Q4 may continue into the first quarter in the face of more rate hikes.

展望未來，我會發表一些評論。正如我每個季度所做的那樣，讓我提供有關我們的 NII 指南的重要警告。我們的警告包括假設遠期曲線中的利率成為現實，並且我們預計信用卡貸款將因假期支出的償還而季節性下降。否則，我們預計貸款將適度增長。我們預計全球銀行業存款將出現季節性下降，而第四季度經歷的其他存款組合變化可能會持續到第一季度，以應對更多的加息。

We also expect the funding cost for Global Markets to continue to increase based on higher rates. And as noted, the impact of that is recognized and offset in noninterest income, so it's revenue neutral. So starting with the fourth quarter NII of $14.8 billion. And assuming a decline of roughly $300 million of Global Markets NII in Q1, which would be similar to the fourth quarter decline, that would get us to a Q1 number around $14.5 billion. In addition, we have to factor in 2 less days of interest, which is about $250 million. So that would lower our starting point to $14.25 billion.

我們還預計全球市場的融資成本將因更高的利率而繼續增加。如前所述，其影響在非利息收入中得到確認和抵消，因此它是收入中性的。因此，從 148 億美元的第四季度 NII 開始。假設第一季度全球市場 NII 下降約 3 億美元，這與第四季度的下降相似，這將使我們的第一季度數字達到 145 億美元左右。此外，我們還必須考慮減少 2 天的利息，即大約 2.5 億美元。因此，這會將我們的起點降低到 142.5 億美元。

We believe the core banking book will continue to show the benefit of rates and other elements and can offset most of the day count. So we're expecting Q1 NII to be somewhere around $14.4 billion. Beyond Q1, with increases in rates slowing and if balances continue their recent stabilization trends, expect less variability in NII for the balance of 2023.

我們相信核心銀行賬戶將繼續顯示出利率和其他因素的好處，並且可以抵消大部分的天數。因此，我們預計第一季度 NII 約為 144 億美元。在第一季度之後，隨著利率增長放緩，如果餘額繼續保持最近的穩定趨勢，預計 2023 年餘額的 NII 變化會減少。

Okay. Let's turn to expense, and we'll use Slide 17 for the discussion. Q4 expenses were $15.5 billion, and they were up $240 million from Q3, driven by an increase in our people and technology costs. In addition, we also saw higher costs from our continued return to work and travel and cost of client engagement. We've seen pent-up demand for our teams gathering back together in person to drive collaboration and to spend more time with our clients.

好的。讓我們轉向費用，我們將使用幻燈片 17 進行討論。第 4 季度的支出為 155 億美元，比第 3 季度增加了 2.4 億美元，這是由於我們的人員和技術成本增加所致。此外，我們還看到，我們繼續重返工作崗位和旅行以及客戶參與成本帶來了更高的成本。我們已經看到被壓抑的需求，要求我們的團隊親自重新聚在一起以推動協作並花更多時間與我們的客戶在一起。

Inflationary pressures continued, but our operational excellence improvements as well as the benefits of a more digitized customer base helped offset those pressures. Our headcount this quarter increased by 3,600 from Q3. And as we faced increased attrition in 2022, our teams were quite successful in their hiring efforts to continue to support customers. As the attrition slowed in the fall, our accelerated pace of hiring outpaced attrition, leaving us with growth in our headcount.

通貨膨脹壓力持續存在，但我們卓越運營的改進以及更加數字化的客戶群帶來的好處幫助抵消了這些壓力。我們本季度的員工人數比第三季度增加了 3,600 人。隨著我們在 2022 年面臨越來越多的人員流失，我們的團隊在招聘方面非常成功，以繼續為客戶提供支持。隨著秋季人員流失的放緩，我們加快的招聘步伐超過了人員流失，使我們的員工人數有所增長。

As we look forward to next quarter, I would just remind everyone that Q1 typically includes $400 million to $500 million in seasonally elevated payroll taxes. And Q1 will also be the first quarter to include the costs of the late October announcement by regulators of higher FDIC insurance costs.

當我們期待下個季度時，我只想提醒大家，第一季度通常包括 4 億至 5 億美元的季節性上漲工資稅。第一季度也將是第一個包含監管機構 10 月底宣布提高 FDIC 保險成本的成本的季度。

And as a result of holding the leadership share in U.S. retail deposits, that will add $125 million to each of our quarterly costs or a total of $500 million for the year. We expect these things will put expenses around $16 billion in the first quarter before expectations that they should trend back down again over the course of 2023.

由於在美國零售存款中佔據領先地位，這將使我們每個季度的成本增加 1.25 億美元，即全年總計增加 5 億美元。我們預計這些因素將使第一季度的支出達到 160 億美元左右，然後預計它們會在 2023 年期間再次下降。

On asset quality, we highlight credit quality metrics on Slide 18 for both our consumer and commercial portfolios. And since Brian already covered much of the topics on asset quality, I'm going to move to a discussion of our line of business results, starting with consumer on Slide 19.

在資產質量方面，我們在幻燈片 18 中強調了我們的消費者和商業投資組合的信用質量指標。由於 Brian 已經涵蓋了很多關於資產質量的話題，我將開始討論我們的業務線結果，從幻燈片 19 上的消費者開始。

Brian noted the earlier organic growth across checking accounts, card accounts, and investments were strong again this quarter, and that's as a result of many years of retooling and continuous investments in the business. So let me offer some highlights.

布賴恩指出，本季度支票賬戶、卡賬戶和投資的早期有機增長再次強勁，這是多年來對該業務進行重組和持續投資的結果。因此，讓我提供一些亮點。

At this point, we have the leading retail deposit market share. We have leadership positions among the most important products for consumers, and we're the leading digital bank with convenient capabilities for consumer and small business clients. We also have a leading online consumer investment platform and a great small business platform offering for our clients.

在這一點上，我們擁有領先的零售存款市場份額。我們在消費者最重要的產品中處於領先地位，我們是領先的數字銀行，為消費者和小型企業客戶提供便利的功能。我們還為客戶提供領先的在線消費投資平台和出色的小型企業平台。

And importantly, when you combine all these capabilities with improved service, at this point, customer satisfaction is now at all-time highs. And we produced another strong quarter of results in Consumer Banking that resulted in $12.5 billion in net income in 2022.

重要的是，當您將所有這些功能與改進的服務相結合時，此時客戶滿意度將達到歷史最高水平。我們在消費者銀行業務中又取得了強勁的季度業績，導致 2022 年的淨收入達到 125 億美元。

For the quarter, Consumer Banking earned $3.6 billion on good organic growth and delivered its seventh consecutive quarter of operating leverage while we continue to invest for the future. Note that our top line grew 21%, while expense grew 8%. The earnings impact of 21% year-over-year revenue growth was partially offset by an increase in provision expense, and that provision increase reflects reserve builds this period compared to a reserve release in the fourth quarter of 2021.

本季度，個人銀行業務憑藉良好的有機增長賺取 36 億美元，並連續第七個季度實現經營槓桿，同時我們繼續為未來投資。請注意，我們的收入增長了 21%，而費用增長了 8%。收入同比增長 21% 的收益影響被撥備費用的增加部分抵消，撥備增加反映了這一時期的準備金建設與 2021 年第四季度的準備金釋放相比。

Net charge-offs increased as a result of the card charge-offs that Brian noted earlier. While this quarter's reported earnings were up 15% year-over-year, pretax, pre-provision income grew an even stronger 36% year-over-year. So that highlights the earnings improvement without the impact of the reserve actions.

由於 Brian 之前提到的信用卡註銷，淨註銷增加了。雖然本季度報告的收益同比增長 15%，但稅前撥備前收入同比增長 36% 甚至更為強勁。因此，這凸顯了在不受儲備行動影響的情況下收益的改善。

Revenue improvement reflects the fuller value of our deposit base as well as deepening with our deposit relationships. I'd note the growth also includes a decline in service charges of $335 million year-over-year as our insufficient funds and overdraft policy changes were in full effect by the end of Q2 of this year.

收入的改善反映了我們存款基礎的更全面價值以及我們存款關係的加深。我注意到增長還包括服務費同比下降 3.35 億美元，因為我們的資金不足和透支政策變化在今年第二季度末全面生效。

And as a result of those policy changes, we continue to benefit from the better overall customer satisfaction and the corresponding lower attrition and the lower costs associated with fewer customer complaint calls, obviously, as a result of fewer fees.

由於這些政策的變化，我們繼續受益於更好的整體客戶滿意度和相應的更低的流失率以及與更少的客戶投訴電話相關的更低的成本，顯然，由於費用更少。

The 8% increase in expenses reflects business investments for growth, including people and technology, along with costs related to reopening the business to fuller capacity. And remember, much of the company's minimum wage hikes and quarter 2 increased salary and wage moves impacts Consumer Banking the most of our lines of business and therefore, impacts most the year-over-year comparisons.

支出增長 8% 反映了企業為增長而進行的投資，包括人員和技術，以及與重新開放企業以提高產能相關的成本。請記住，公司的最低工資上調和第 2 季度工資和工資變動的大部分影響了我們大部分業務線的消費者銀行業務，因此對同比比較的影響最大。

We also continued our investment in financial centers. For the year, we opened 58 and we renovated 784 more. And against all of that, both digital banking and operational excellence helped us to pay for investments, and that allowed us to improve the efficiency ratio to 47%, an impressive 600 basis point improvement over the year ago period.

我們還繼續投資於金融中心。這一年，我們開設了 58 家，並重新裝修了 784 家。儘管如此，數字銀行和卓越運營都幫助我們支付了投資費用，這使我們能夠將效率比率提高到 47%，比去年同期提高了 600 個基點，令人印象深刻。

Before moving away from Consumer Banking, I want to note some differences that highlight just how much more effectively and efficiently this business is running since even just before the pandemic. It's easy to lose sight of how well this business is operating from an already strong position in 2019. And you can see some of the stats on Slide 17 in the appendix.

在離開消費者銀行業務之前，我想指出一些差異，這些差異突出表明自大流行病爆發以來，該業務的運行效率和效率提高了多少。從 2019 年的強勢地位來看，很容易忽視該業務的運營情況。您可以在附錄的幻燈片 17 上看到一些統計數據。

We can best summarize by noting we've got $318 billion more in deposits; 10% more checking customers, 92% of whom are primary; 28% more investment accounts. And absent the card divestitures, we've increased the amount of new card accounts by 4%, and our payment volumes are 36% higher. We're servicing those customers with 387 fewer financial centers because of our digital capabilities, and it's allowed us to need 10% fewer people to run the business.

我們最好的總結是注意到我們的存款增加了 3180 億美元；檢查客戶增加 10%，其中 92% 是主要客戶；投資賬戶增加 28%。在不剝離信用卡的情況下，我們的新卡賬戶數量增加了 4%，我們的支付量增加了 36%。由於我們的數字化能力，我們為這些客戶提供的金融中心數量減少了 387 個，這讓我們能夠減少 10% 的業務運營人員。

Our combined credit and debit spend was up 35%. Digital sales increased 77%, and we sent and received 3x the number of Zelle transactions. All of this allowed us to run the business with fewer employees and lower our cost of deposits ratio below 120 basis points.

我們的貸記和借記支出合計增長了 35%。數字銷售額增長了 77%，我們發送和接收的 Zelle 交易數量增加了 3 倍。所有這些使我們能夠以更少的員工開展業務，並將我們的存款成本比率降低到 120 個基點以下。

Moving to Slide 20. Wealth management produced strong results, earning $1.2 billion on good revenue and 29% profit margin. This led to full year records for both revenue and net income of $21.7 billion and $4.7 billion, respectively. This was an especially good result given the nearly unprecedented negative returns of both the equity and the bond markets at the same time this year.

轉到幻燈片 20。財富管理產生了強勁的業績，收入 12 億美元，利潤率 29%。這導致全年收入和淨收入分別達到 217 億美元和 47 億美元。鑑於今年股票和債券市場同時出現近乎前所未有的負回報，這是一個特別好的結果。

The volatility and generally lower market levels put pressure on certain revenues in this business again in Q4, but what helps differentiate Merrill and the Private Bank is a strong banking business at scale with $324 billion of deposits and $224 billion of loans. So despite a 14% decline in asset under management and brokerage fees year-over-year, we saw revenues hold flat with the fourth quarter of '21.

波動和普遍較低的市場水平在第四季度再次給該業務的某些收入帶來壓力，但有助於區分美林和私人銀行的是規模強大的銀行業務，擁有 3240 億美元的存款和 2240 億美元的貸款。因此，儘管管理資產和經紀費用同比下降 14%，但我們看到收入與 21 年第四季度持平。

Our talented group of wealth advisers, coupled with powerful digital capabilities, generated 8,500 net new households in Merrill in the fourth quarter, while the Private Bank gained an impressive 550 net new high net worth relationships in the quarter. Both were up nicely from net household generation in 2021.

我們才華橫溢的財富顧問團隊，加上強大的數字能力，在第四季度為美林淨增了 8,500 個家庭，而私人銀行在本季度獲得了令人印象深刻的 550 個淨新高淨值客戶關係。兩者都比 2021 年的淨家庭發電量有了很好的增長。

We added $20 billion of loans in this business since Q4 of '21, growing 10% and marking the 51st consecutive quarter of average loan growth in the business despite securities-based lending reductions related to the current market environment. That's consistent and sustained performance by the teams. Our expenses declined 1%, driven by lower revenue-related incentives, partially offset by investments in our business.

自 21 年第四季度以來，我們在該業務中增加了 200 億美元的貸款，增長了 10%，標誌著該業務連續第 51 個季度平均貸款增長，儘管與當前市場環境相關的證券貸款減少。這是團隊一致和持續的表現。我們的支出下降了 1%，這是由於與收入相關的激勵措施減少，部分被對我們業務的投資所抵消。

Moving to Global Banking on Slide 21. And you can see the business earned $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter on record revenues of $6.4 billion, pretty remarkable given the decline in investment banking fees during this year.

轉到幻燈片 21 上的全球銀行業務。您可以看到該業務在第四季度的收入達到創紀錄的 64 億美元，收入達到 25 億美元，考慮到今年投資銀行費用的下降，這一數字相當可觀。

Lower investment banking fees, higher credit costs and a modest increase in expenses were mostly offset by stronger NII and other fees. So overall, revenue grew 9%, reflecting the value of our Global Transaction Service business to our clients and our associated revenue growth, while investment banking fees declined a little more than 50%.

較低的投資銀行費用、較高的信貸成本和費用的適度增加大部分被 NII 和其他費用的增加所抵消。因此，總的來說，收入增長了 9%，反映了我們的全球交易服務業務對我們客戶的價值以及我們相關的收入增長，而投資銀行費用下降了 50% 多一點。

The company's overall investment banking fees were $1.1 billion in Q4, declining $1.3 billion year-over-year in a continued tough market. Still, we increased our ranking in overall fees for the full year 2022 to #3 as we've continued to invest in the business.

該公司第四季度的整體投資銀行費用為 11 億美元，在持續艱難的市場中同比下降 13 億美元。儘管如此，隨著我們繼續對該業務進行投資，我們將 2022 年全年的總費用排名提高到第 3 位。

The $612 million increase in provision expense reflected a modest reserve build of $37 million in the fourth quarter compared to a $435 million release in the year ago period, and pretax, pre-provision income grew 13% year-over-year. Expense increased 4% year-over-year, and that was driven by strategic investments in the business. including hiring and technology.

撥備費用增加 6.12 億美元反映了第四季度 3700 萬美元的適度儲備建立，而去年同期為 4.35 億美元，稅前撥備前收入同比增長 13%。費用同比增長 4%，這是由對業務的戰略投資推動的。包括招聘和技術。

Switching to Global Markets on Slide 22. And as we usually do, I'll talk about the segment results, excluding DVA. You can see our fourth quarter record results were a very strong finish to a good year. The continued themes of inflation, geopolitical tensions and central banks changing monetary policies around the globe continue to drive volatility in both bond and equity markets and repositioning from our clients. And as a result, it was another quarter that favored macro trading, while our credit trading businesses improved also. Spreads fared better than the prior year.

切換到幻燈片 22 上的全球市場。和我們通常做的一樣，我將討論細分結果，不包括 DVA。你可以看到我們第四季度創紀錄的業績是對好一年的一個非常強勁的收尾。通貨膨脹、地緣政治緊張局勢和中央銀行改變全球貨幣政策的持續主題繼續推動債券和股票市場的波動以及我們客戶的重新定位。結果，又是一個有利於宏觀交易的季度，而我們的信用交易業務也有所改善。利差表現好於上一年。

Our fourth quarter net income of $650 million reflects a good quarter of sales and trading revenue partially offset by lower shares of investment banking revenue. And it's worth noting that this net income excludes $193 million of DVA losses this quarter as a result of our own credit spread movements. Reported net income was $504 million.

我們第四季度的淨收入為 6.5 億美元，反映了銷售和交易收入的良好季度，部分被較低的投資銀行收入份額所抵消。值得注意的是，由於我們自己的信用利差變動，這一淨收入不包括本季度 1.93 億美元的 DVA 損失。報告的淨收入為 5.04 億美元。

Focusing on year-over-year, sales and trading contributed $3.7 billion to revenue, and that improved 27%. That's a new fourth quarter record for this business, besting the previous one by 21%. And at $16.5 billion in sales and trading for the year, it marked the best in more than a decade. FICC improved 49%, while equities was up 1% compared to the quarter a year ago. And the FICC improvement was primarily driven by growth in our macro products, while credit products also improved from a weaker Q4 '21 environment.

從同比來看，銷售和交易為收入貢獻了 37 億美元，增長了 27%。這是該業務第四季度的新記錄，比上一季度高出 21%。當年的銷售額和交易額為 165 億美元，創下十多年來的新高。 FICC 增長了 49%，而股票與去年同期相比上漲了 1%。 FICC 的改善主要是由我們的宏觀產品的增長推動的，而信貸產品也因 21 年第四季度較弱的環境而有所改善。

We've been investing continuously over the past year in our macro businesses. We've identified those as opportunities for us. And again, we've been rewarded for that this quarter. Year-over-year expense increased about 10% primarily driven by investments in the business.

在過去的一年裡，我們一直在持續投資於我們的宏觀業務。我們已將這些確定為我們的機會。再一次，我們在本季度獲得了回報。費用同比增長約 10%，主要受業務投資的推動。

Finally, on Slide 23, we show All Other, which reported a loss of $689 million, and that was consistent with the year ago period. For the quarter, the effective tax rate was approximately 10%, benefiting from ESG investment tax credits and certain discrete tax benefits. Excluding those discrete items, our tax rate would have been 12.5%. And further adjusting for the tax credits, it would have been 25%. Our full year GAAP tax rate was 11%, and we would not expect 2023 to be a lot different.

最後，在幻燈片 23 上，我們展示了 All Other，它報告虧損 6.89 億美元，與去年同期一致。本季度，受益於 ESG 投資稅收抵免和某些離散稅收優惠，有效稅率約為 10%。不包括那些離散項目，我們的稅率應該是 12.5%。進一步調整稅收抵免，應該是 25%。我們全年的 GAAP 稅率為 11%，我們預計 2023 年不會有太大不同。

So with that, we'll stop here, and we'll open it up, please, for Q&A.

因此，我們將停在這裡，我們將打開它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們將從 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Need a little more help, you gave a lot, but I need a little more help on NII for 2023. You walked us to the $14.4 billion on starting point on the quarter, and your words were less variability in NII for the rest of '23. So I guess my question is you got a lot of loan growth. You have a few more rate hikes hopefully coming through, and I understand the opposite -- the flip side of that is deposit migration, some outflows and betas.

需要更多幫助，你付出了很多，但我需要更多幫助來解決 2023 年的 NII。你讓我們在本季度的起點上達到了 144 億美元，而你的話在 NII 的剩餘時間裡變化不大23.所以我想我的問題是你有很多貸款增長。你有希望實現更多的加息，我理解相反的情況——另一方面是存款遷移、一些資金外流和貝塔值。

But could you fill in those blanks because I think -- I won't speak for everybody else. I know I am -- we're still expecting some growth in NII for the calendar year. So maybe you could talk through some of those pieces and maybe the outflow in Global Banking, noninterest-bearing as a big piece of it.

但你能否填補這些空白，因為我認為——我不會代表其他人發言。我知道我是——我們仍然期待 NII 在日曆年有所增長。所以也許你可以談談其中的一些部分，也許還有全球銀行業的資金流出，其中很大一部分是無息的。

Glenn, I'll start with just -- just by way of context, obviously, we're coming off a period with historic inflows for pandemic deposits. And now in Q4, we're beginning to see the impact of quantitative tightening and a number of sharp rate rises. So that obviously creates some uncertainty.

格倫，我首先要說的是——只是通過上下文，顯然，我們正在結束一個歷史性的大流行病存款流入時期。現在在第 4 季度，我們開始看到量化緊縮和一系列大幅加息的影響。所以這顯然會產生一些不確定性。

We don't necessarily have a playbook for that. We just got to see how actual balances perform, and we've got to see how the rotation and the rate paid develop. So it's dynamic. It's evolving, and we manage and we forecast that weekly. So when we lay out for you the actuals on Page 7 and 8 of the earnings presentation, we're trying to show you what we're seeing in real time around balances and mix.

我們不一定有劇本。我們只需要看看實際餘額是如何表現的，我們還需要看看輪換和支付率是如何發展的。所以它是動態的。它在不斷發展，我們每週進行管理和預測。因此，當我們在收益報告的第 7 頁和第 8 頁為您列出實際情況時，我們試圖向您展示我們實時看到的餘額和組合情況。

So what we've said with respect to this quarter coming up is we got to adjust for the day count as we would every year. That's timing, and we'll get that back, obviously, in Q2 and Q3.

因此，對於即將到來的本季度，我們所說的是我們必須像每年一樣調整天數。那是時機，顯然，我們將在第二季度和第三季度恢復。

And then we highlighted the Global Markets NII impact. It's always been there. The last couple of quarters, it's been around $300 million. It is revenue neutral to shareholders as we point out because we pass that along to clients and we capture elsewhere in sales and trading, but it does obviously impact the NII. That's why we're highlighting it.

然後我們強調了全球市場 NII 的影響。它一直在那裡。在過去的幾個季度裡，它大約是 3 億美元。正如我們指出的那樣，它對股東的收入是中性的，因為我們將其傳遞給客戶，並且我們在銷售和交易的其他地方獲取收入，但這顯然會影響 NII。這就是我們強調它的原因。

But as it relates to the forecast, look, we feel like the modest balance declines are kind of in there. That may continue. And this continued rotation from some of the noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing. We got some pricing and rate pressure. So that's in the back of our mind, too.

但就預測而言，看，我們覺得適度的餘額下降是存在的。這可能會繼續。並且這種從一些無息到有息的持續輪換。我們有一些定價和利率壓力。所以這也是我們的想法。

And the only final thing I'll just say is we're reluctant to go a whole lot further out. Last year, we declined to give a full year guide. This year, we feel that way in particular because it's just a much more sensitive environment when we're modeling when interest rates are at 5% than when they were at 50 basis points, so for all those reasons.

最後我要說的唯一一件事是我們不願意走得更遠。去年，我們拒絕提供全年指南。今年，我們尤其有這種感覺，因為當我們建模時，利率為 5% 時的環境比利率為 50 個基點時要敏感得多，因此出於所有這些原因。

Now I will say this as the final point. We just got to -- I think we got to stay patient because we got to see how rates and balances and rotation shake out. And as rates return to more normal and as customer behavior -- and you can sort of see it, it's behaving maybe a little more normally, then we should be able to resume our upward path over time. But we've got to see how this shakes out, and that's why we don't want to go out beyond Q1 at this stage.

現在我要說的是最後一點。我們必須——我認為我們必須保持耐心，因為我們必須看到利率、平衡和輪換是如何發生變化的。隨著利率恢復正常和客戶行為——你可以看到，它的行為可能更正常一點，然後我們應該能夠隨著時間的推移恢復我們的上昇路徑。但我們必須看看這是如何擺脫困境的，這就是為什麼我們不想在現階段超越第一季度。

Fair enough. I feel bad for all of us. Maybe a quick one on credit. Good to see charge-offs down given everything that's going on in the world. But can you talk through the big -- the $1.6 billion sequential pickup in criticized book from last quarter, what's driving that and how you feel about reserves against that?

很公平。我為我們所有人感到難過。也許是一個快速的信用。鑑於世界上正在發生的一切，很高興看到沖銷減少。但是你能談談上一季度批評賬簿中 16 億美元的連續回升，是什麼推動了這一點以及你對準備金的看法如何？

Yes. So you're aware, the main driver there is commercial real estate. And it's specifically -- around about $1 billion of it is office. Obviously, there's a significant amount of change going on in office. And what we've chosen to do is as rates are rising here, we're pushing that through the models. And just with the debt service coverage it comes down, we pushed through the downgrade. So we've chosen to do that.

是的。所以你知道，那裡的主要驅動力是商業地產。特別是 - 其中約 10 億美元用於辦公。顯然，辦公室正在發生大量變化。我們選擇做的是隨著這裡的利率上升，我們正在通過模型推動它。就在償債覆蓋率下降的情況下，我們推動了降級。所以我們選擇這樣做。

The performance is still okay. So we're not concerned with the performance, but we're just making sure we're being tight on the modeling there. It is obviously a portfolio where -- I think you know this. We're pretty focused on making originations into office buildings that are leased up, generally at 55% LTV at origination, and 75% of that book is Class A office building. So we're not alarmed there. We're just following our own process with respect to making sure we're current on the debt service coverage.

性能還是可以的。所以我們不關心性能，但我們只是確保我們在那裡的建模很嚴格。這顯然是一個投資組合——我想你知道這一點。我們非常專注於將原產地變成出租的辦公樓，通常在產地時 LTV 為 55%，而這本書的 75% 是 A 級辦公樓。所以我們對此並不感到驚慌。我們只是按照我們自己的流程來確保我們的償債範圍是最新的。

Just remember that we're talking about office with very high-quality underwriting characteristics, all A class, et cetera. And so we just have a conservative rating process, frankly. And it's well viewed out there and well looked at by many people. But remember, office is $14 billion to $15 billion of the total portfolio. So we feel very comfortable where we are.

請記住，我們談論的是具有非常高質量承保特徵的辦公室，所有 A 類等等。因此，坦率地說，我們只有一個保守的評級流程。它在外面很受歡迎，很多人都在關注它。但請記住，寫字樓佔總投資組合的 140 億美元至 150 億美元。所以我們感覺很舒服。

And then obviously, we built reserves against the portfolios across the board that are strong and reflect, as I said earlier, basically a mild recession in the base case and the worst recession in the adverse case that we wait 40%.

然後很明顯，我們為全面的投資組合建立了儲備，正如我之前所說，基本上反映了基本情況下的溫和衰退和我們等待 40% 的不利情況下最嚴重的衰退。

We'll go next to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們將與 RBC 的杰拉德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy) 一起去。

Alastair, on the loan loss reserving, and Brian just talked about the adverse case being about 40%. Can you guys share with us how much of the reserve building is what might be referred to as management overlay relative to what the models are specifically dictating on reserve building?

Alastair，關於貸款損失準備金，Brian 剛剛談到不利情況約為 40%。你們能和我們分享一下，相對於模型具體規定的儲備建設，儲備建設中有多少可以稱為管理覆蓋？

Don't disclose that. But you might assume that there's a fair amount -- 3 components to this: one is what the models say; two is basically uncertain -- in precision and other things we overlay and then a judgmental, and you might think that there's a fair amount of that right now with the uncertainty. But -- so the model piece of that would be a portion of it.

不要透露那個。但是您可能會假設有相當多的數量——這有 3 個組成部分：一個是模型所說的；二基本上是不確定的——在精度和其他我們疊加的東西上，然後是判斷，你可能認為現在有相當多的不確定性。但是——所以模型部分將是它的一部分。

Very good, Brian. And then when you look at your deposit behavior of the consumer the past cycles, is there any material differences in the way they're moving money around or not moving money around from their checking accounts or low-yielding savings accounts?

很好，布萊恩。然後，當您查看過去週期中消費者的存款行為時，他們從支票賬戶或低收益儲蓄賬戶轉移資金或不轉移資金的方式是否存在重大差異？

I think -- when you look at the higher-end consumer, not really. They move to -- when the rate in the market yields money market funds, we move them to it, and it's part of what we do. In that sort of investment cash, Gerard, as we call it, moves, the checking accounts don't move.

我認為——當你看高端消費者時，情況並非如此。他們轉移到 - 當市場利率產生貨幣市場基金時，我們將它們轉移到它，這是我們所做工作的一部分。在那種投資現金中，杰拉德，正如我們所說的那樣，會移動，而支票賬戶不會移動。

The difference, frankly, is that there was a lot of stimulus that was in addition to the earnings power of our consumers. So we've never had that in history, but -- and so that amount of stimulus, the question is, will they spend it down or will they keep storing it up? And they've been spending it down very modestly across sort of medium income households or so and the general consumer business.

坦率地說，不同之處在於，除了我們消費者的盈利能力之外，還有很多刺激措施。因此，我們在歷史上從未有過這種情況，但是——那麼如此大量的刺激措施，問題是，他們會把它花掉還是會繼續儲存起來？他們一直在中等收入家庭和一般消費者業務中非常適度地花錢。

Give you an example, the cohort that was $2,000 to $5,000 in average balances pre-pandemic had $3,400. They're still sitting at $12,800, but they peaked early in '22 at $13,400. So they're drifting down, but it's still multiples.

舉個例子，大流行前平均餘額為 2,000 美元至 5,000 美元的人群有 3,400 美元。他們仍然坐在 12,800 美元，但他們在 22 年初達到了 13,400 美元的峰值。所以它們在下降，但仍然是倍數。

The big question was, will they end up spending that down? If they're employed, probably not. But if they're -- if unemployment rate changes -- and our models assume the unemployment rate changes. So I think we're at 6 basis points now in total consumer rate paid. The rate structure is very high and we are 11 basis points, it was where we got to. We have very low CD volumes, and things have a fair amount of money markets. But most of it's checking. That's why we showed you the differential in checking.

最大的問題是，他們最終會花掉這筆錢嗎？如果他們受僱，可能不會。但如果他們——如果失業率發生變化——並且我們的模型假設失業率發生變化。所以我認為我們現在支付的總消費者利率為 6 個基點。利率結構非常高，我們有 11 個基點，這是我們到達的地方。我們的 CD 數量非常少，而且貨幣市場的數量相當可觀。但大部分都是檢查。這就是我們向您展示檢查差異的原因。

So is it different yet probably in the mass consumer business just because they are sitting on more cash and may use that cash in certain scenarios, but the rest of the behavior is largely the same, including in the corporate business where people can have less balances and the effective credit rate generates a bigger number to cover their fees, so they tend to pull the balances out.

那麼在大眾消費者業務中是否有所不同，可能只是因為他們坐擁更多現金並可能在某些情況下使用這些現金，但其餘行為基本相同，包括在人們可以擁有較少餘額的公司業務中有效信貸利率產生更大的數字來支付他們的費用，因此他們傾向於提取餘額。

Just quickly, Brian, just when you look at the high net worth in corporate, did that move from 0% to 3% Fed funds, for example, versus 3% to where we are today at 4.5%. Is most of that completed where the people that were going to move the money have already moved it in those 2 categories?

很快，布賴恩，就在你看企業的高淨值時，聯邦基金的比例從 0% 上升到 3%，而我們今天的水平是 3% 到 4.5%。大部分是在那些要轉移資金的人已經轉移到這兩個類別的地方完成的嗎？

Well, I mean, I can't say definitively, but you've seen -- that's what we showed you on those pages where we showed a stable -- that the account balances are relatively stable in wealth management in the fourth quarter, $300-odd billion and $300-odd billion. Basically, they're flat if you looked across the last several weeks. So there's always a little bit of migration to the preferred deposit, which is a market for higher-yielding sort of money market account.

好吧，我的意思是，我不能肯定地說，但你已經看到——這就是我們在那些顯示穩定的頁面上向你展示的——第四季度財富管理的賬戶餘額相對穩定，300 美元-十億多億美元和三千多億美元。如果你回顧過去幾週，基本上它們是持平的。因此，總會有一些人轉向首選存款，這是一種更高收益的貨幣市場賬戶市場。

But the big shift in that was, frankly, in the second quarter of '22, when I think we had $50 billion-odd numbers of tax payments, which was a lot higher than in past years due to -- if you think about the '21 dynamic and capital gains and other things that went through. So what we're seeing is the last 4 or 5 weeks, we're seeing relatively -- stable in deposit balances. Quarter end 3, quarter end 4, basically flat, a little bit of movement among the categories. But in that business, frankly, a fairly sort of stable place right now. And so I think this long answer, realize the sort of answer, if they move the money, they kind of already moved it.

但坦率地說，這方面的重大轉變是在 2022 年第二季度，當時我認為我們的納稅額超過 500 億美元，這比過去幾年高很多，因為——如果你考慮一下'21 動態和資本收益以及經歷的其他事情。所以我們看到的是過去 4 或 5 週，我們看到存款餘額相對穩定。季度末 3，季度末 4，基本持平，類別之間有一點點運動。但坦率地說，在那個行業，現在是一個相當穩定的地方。所以我認為這個很長的答案，意識到那種答案，如果他們轉移了錢，他們就已經轉移了。

We'll take our next question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們將接受 Mike Mayo 和 Wells Fargo 的下一個問題。

I guess, Alastair, I guess, no good deed goes unpunished. I mean NII did grow 21% for the year 2022. It did grow 7% linked quarter and the fourth quarter, up $900 million. But 6 weeks after you gave guidance last quarter, you lowered that guidance by $300 million. And it just raised some questions about the quality of your modeling or if you had your arms completely around the asset liability management. So what happened to cause you to change that guidance, albeit in the context of still some of the best NII growth you guys have seen in many years?

我想，阿拉斯泰爾，我想，沒有好事不受懲罰。我的意思是 NII 在 2022 年確實增長了 21%。它確實在第四季度和第四季度增長了 7%，增長了 9 億美元。但是在你上個季度給出指導意見 6 週後，你將該指導意見下調了 3 億美元。它只是提出了一些關於您的建模質量的問題，或者您是否完全專注於資產負債管理。那麼，是什麼導致你們改變了這一指導方針，儘管在你們多年來看到的一些最好的 NII 增長的背景下？

Yes. So Mike, if I go back to 6 months ago, quarter 2 earnings, what we said at the time was we thought over the course of the next 6 months, NII might go up by $1.8 billion, $1.85 billion. In actual fact, it's gone up $2.25 billion. So that's the actuals. Remember, we're forecasting as best we can any given time, up $2.25 billion.

是的。所以邁克，如果我回到 6 個月前，第二季度的收益，我們當時所說的是我們認為在接下來的 6 個月內，NII 可能會增加 18 億美元，18.5 億美元。事實上，它增加了 22.5 億美元。這就是實際情況。請記住，我們在任何給定時間都盡我們所能進行預測，增加 22.5 億美元。

Q3 was more favorable than I think we had thought, and Q4 was less favorable. And the Q4 was less favorable in large part because the balances behaved just a little bit differently, and the rate paid behaved just a little bit differently. And the mix or rotation, if you like, that behaved a little differently. It kind of makes sense because Q4 is where QT kind of kicked in. So look, we don't have a great deal of precedent. It's obviously a historic period. It's difficult to forecast quarter-to-quarter, and it's -- our models are just a lot more sensitive right now. So I think we're going to try and share with you what we know when we know it, but it's just a more difficult environment at this point to predict looking forward.

Q3 比我想像的更有利，而 Q4 則不太有利。第四季度不太受歡迎，這在很大程度上是因為餘額的表現略有不同，支付的利率表現也略有不同。如果您願意，混合或旋轉的表現會有所不同。這是有道理的，因為 Q4 是 QT 發揮作用的地方。所以看，我們沒有很多先例。這顯然是一個歷史時期。很難按季度進行預測，而且 - 我們的模型現在更加敏感。因此，我認為我們將嘗試與您分享我們知道的內容，但目前預測未來的環境更加困難。

It is. It's like the first half of your round of golf, you played well, you should have just stopped after then, I guess. But I guess, as we look -- so in other words, that $400 million extra that you got, you're kind of giving back here from the fourth to the first quarter. So $14.4 billion NII guide. If you annualize that, that would be still 9% NII growth in 2023. Is that a fair starting point? Can you give us not big confidence, but a little confidence given that deposits have stabilized, the day count cards are seasonally lower. So again, if you analyze that, that's 9% NII growth. And then, Brian, still on expenses, any change there? Are you going to keep it to just like 1.5% growth?

這是。這就像你打高爾夫球的前半程，你打得很好，我想你應該在那之後就停下來了。但我想，正如我們所看到的那樣 - 換句話說，你得到的額外 4 億美元，你從第四季度到第一季度有點回饋這裡。所以 144 億美元的 NII 指南。如果按年化計算，到 2023 年 NII 仍將增長 9%。這是一個公平的起點嗎？你能不能給我們很大的信心，但鑑於存款已經穩定，天數卡季節性較低，你能給我們一點信心嗎？所以，如果你分析一下，那就是 9% 的 NII 增長。然後，布賴恩，還在花錢，有什麼變化嗎？你打算將其保持在 1.5% 的增長率嗎？

On the first thing, Mike, you -- it was something I was going to pick up on earlier to the first question. You picked up -- going to the point. We will have growth in NII year-over-year in the range you talked about if you take the $14.4 billion. As Alastair said, we expect it to sort of be less variability and annualize that, compare that to '22 of 9% as you said. So you're exactly right. So that's good growth.

首先，邁克，你——這是我在第一個問題之前要回答的問題。你接了——開門見山了。如果你拿 144 億美元，我們將在你談到的範圍內實現 NII 的同比增長。正如阿拉斯泰爾所說，我們預計它的可變性會有所降低，並將其年化，將其與你所說的 '22 of 9% 進行比較。所以你完全正確。所以這是很好的增長。

And I think you'll see, as you move through the year '23, leave aside the economic scenario playing out. But you'll see -- you'll move from where we are today, which is uncertainty about where the balances will finally settle in and the plateauing of those balances to where you get back to normalized growth and normalized loan growth, et cetera. So you've got it right. There'll be nice NII growth year-over-year.

我想你會看到，當你走過 23 年時，拋開正在發生的經濟情景。但你會看到——你將從我們今天所處的位置轉移，這是關於餘額最終將在哪裡穩定以及這些餘額趨於平穩的不確定性，回到你回到正常化增長和正常化貸款增長等的地方。所以你做對了。 NII 同比會有不錯的增長。

On expenses, if you look at your guys' estimates for us, 62.5, which is what we sort of said earlier this -- in the fourth quarter, we're comfortable with that. That's what the average of the Street analysts are -- and that -- but that takes a lot of good management to get there, and we'll continue to work on it, letting the headcount drift back down and continuing to invest in things that provide efficiencies. So you've got -- and key to that is the 6 quarters of operating leverage and the idea of continuing that going.

在費用方面，如果你看看你們對我們的估計，62.5，這就是我們早些時候所說的——在第四季度，我們對此感到滿意。這就是華爾街分析師的平均水平——而且——但這需要大量優秀的管理人員才能實現，我們將繼續努力，讓員工人數減少，並繼續投資於那些提供效率。所以你已經 - 關鍵是 6 個季度的經營槓桿和繼續下去的想法。

And then the last part of the income -- or the EPS is simply your excess capital, which you highlighted. It seems like you're well above your CET1 ratio. So what does that mean for the pace of buybacks and your desire to buy back stock at this price?

然後是收入的最後一部分——或 EPS 只是您強調的超額資本。看起來你遠遠高於你的 CET1 比率。那麼，這對於回購的速度和你以這個價格回購股票的願望意味著什麼呢？

So we've always said that the first desire is always to support business growth, and that's what we've been doing. We then -- we're well above our minimums. We're on a path to close out the requirements for next year. And so we bought back a chunk of shares this quarter. You expect that to start to increase, neutralizing employee issuances and then going above that each quarter now because we -- 11.2-something percent -- we were close to 11.4% target. So we're back in the game.

所以我們一直說，第一個願望始終是支持業務增長，這就是我們一直在做的事情。然後我們 - 我們遠遠超過我們的最低限度。我們正在努力完成明年的要求。因此，我們在本季度回購了大量股票。你預計這將開始增加，抵消員工發行，然後現在每個季度都超過這個數字，因為我們 - 11.2% 左右 - 我們接近 11.4% 的目標。所以我們回到了遊戲中。

Our next question comes from John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Alastair, I know we're asking you to predict a lot of things here. Just thinking about the credit and the pace of normalization, do you have any sense of where charge-offs kind of might start out the year? And what kind of pace of normalization, if we look at the charge-off ratio that moved up a little bit this quarter, what might that look like for 2023?

Alastair，我知道我們要求你在這裡預測很多事情。僅考慮信貸和正常化的步伐，您是否知道今年可能會從哪裡開始沖銷？什麼樣的正常化步伐，如果我們看一下本季度略有上升的沖銷率，2023 年會是什麼樣子？

Yes. So we're not going to look too far into the future, John. But if you look at our 90 days past due in the credit card data that we show you every quarter, that tends to give you a pretty good leading indicator of what's coming down next quarter. So you can see the 90 days past due have picked up just a little bit. 30 days past due have picked up just a little bit. We're still well below where we were pre-pandemic, but that would tell you on the consumer side, it looks like it's drifting just a little higher. So that's number one.

是的。所以我們不會展望太遠的未來，約翰。但是，如果您查看我們每個季度向您展示的信用卡數據中的逾期 90 天，這往往會為您提供一個很好的領先指標，說明下個季度的情況。所以你可以看到逾期 90 天的情況有所增加。逾期 30 天有所回升。我們仍然遠低於大流行前的水平，但這會告訴你在消費者方面，它看起來只是稍微高了一點。所以這是第一。

Number two, with respect to commercial, this quarter was a little unusual. We had 3 deals that we ended up having to charge off. Not correlated in any way. They're in totally different businesses, and they've been hanging around for a while, but it was -- 2 of them are fully reserved. So that didn't come as a surprise.

第二，關於商業，這個季度有點不尋常。我們有 3 筆交易，但最終不得不取消。不以任何方式相關。他們在完全不同的行業，他們已經閒逛了一段時間，但它是 - 其中 2 個是完全保留的。所以這並不令人意外。

But I think because the commercial stuff was so close to 0, it immediately looks like a pop in any given number. That's part of the reason why we showed those graphs of what charge-offs have looked like over time in the earnings materials. But the commercial portfolio continues to look very strong.

但我認為，因為商業內容非常接近於 0，所以它立即看起來像任何給定數字的流行音樂。這就是為什麼我們在收益材料中展示了隨著時間的推移註銷情況的部分原因。但商業投資組合看起來仍然非常強勁。

Okay. And you touched on this a little bit on Brian's comments, but just on loan growth, what are you guys thinking about for this year? And what's the perspective of where you closed the spigots a little bit in the third quarter as you managed RWA? You kind of said those were opening up in the fourth, but we didn't really see it translate to robust loan growth. Just kind of that dynamic between what you're looking to do and what you're seeing on demand for loan growth outlook.

好的。你在 Brian 的評論中稍微提到了這一點，但就貸款增長而言，你們今年在想什麼？在管理 RWA 時，您在第三季度稍微關閉了龍頭的觀點是什麼？你有點說那些在第四個開放，但我們並沒有真正看到它轉化為強勁的貸款增長。只是你想做的事情和你看到的貸款增長前景需求之間的那種動態。

Yes. So we said we're wide open for business in the fourth quarter, and that remains the case. Brian covered the capital point. We had to do what we had to do in the third quarter. We did it. We've added 75 basis points of capital in the last 2 quarters, puts us in a great place. So mainly what you're seeing in Q4 is just it was a slower environment for loan growth.

是的。所以我們說我們在第四季度對業務敞開大門，現在仍然如此。布賴恩涵蓋了資本點。我們必須在第三節做我們必須做的事情。我們做到了。我們在過去兩個季度增加了 75 個基點的資本，這讓我們處於一個很好的位置。因此，您在第四季度看到的主要是貸款增長放緩的環境。

A year ago, we were talking about the fact we anticipated that loan growth might be high single digits, and we grew 10. This year, we feel like it's going to be mid-single digits, it's going to be slower. And it's going to be led by commercial, it will be led by card, but things like securities-based lending, that's just quieter. We've got balances being paid down there. Mortgage is quiet through this year. And then in our base case, you look at the economic blue-chip consensus, you can see the forecast is for a recession. So it will be a quieter loan growth year this year, I suspect, but we're open for business to support our clients.

一年前，我們在談論我們預計貸款增長可能是高個位數的事實，我們增長了 10。今年，我們覺得它會是中個位數，它會更慢。它將以商業為主導，它將以信用卡為主導，但是像基於證券的借貸之類的東西就更安靜了。我們在那裡支付了余額。今年抵押貸款很平靜。然後在我們的基本情況下，你看看經濟藍籌股的共識，你可以看到預測是衰退。因此，我懷疑今年的貸款增長將較為平靜，但我們對業務開放以支持我們的客戶。

We'll go next to Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們將與瑞銀一起前往 Erika Najarian。

I just had one compound clarifying question. The first is, Brian, did you, in response to Mike's questions on NII, bless $57.6 billion in NII for '23, right? He was saying $14.4 billion times 4% or 9% NII growth. You seem to be going with it. I just wanted to confirm that. I think there's a bit of confusion given that you guys were saying you don't want to go beyond the first quarter.

我只有一個複合澄清問題。首先是，布賴恩，在回答邁克關於 NII 的問題時，你是否為 23 年的 NII 保佑了 576 億美元，對嗎？他說的是 144 億美元乘以 4% 或 9% 的 NII 增長率。你似乎正在接受它。我只是想確認一下。鑑於你們說你們不想超越第一季度，我認為這有點混亂。

And the second question is also for you, Brian. I think that you've done an unbelievable job at transforming the company. And I think the one thing that remains is that the investor base still thinks you as mostly a bank to invest in when rates are going up, right? And clearly, there's a lot of uncertainty over the NII outlook.

第二個問題也是給你的，布賴恩。我認為你在改造公司方面做了令人難以置信的工作。而且我認為剩下的一件事是，當利率上升時，投資者群體仍然認為你主要是一家可以投資的銀行，對吧？顯然，NII 前景存在很多不確定性。

But could you sort of give us what we should be potentially excited about that you can control with regards to the revenue trajectory from here? And also you spent so much time on deposits. I'm just kind of confused on the message in terms of deposit declines from here because you laid out this case that you have this very resilient deposit base, and it seems like a lot of attrition has already happened. So that -- sorry, that was actually 3 questions in one. I apologize, but that's it.

但是你能不能給我們一些我們應該興奮的事情，你可以從這裡控制收入軌跡？而且您還花了很多時間在存款上。我只是對這裡存款下降的信息感到困惑，因為你提出了這個案例，你有一個非常有彈性的存款基礎，而且似乎已經發生了很多減員。所以 - 抱歉，這實際上是 3 個問題合二為一。我很抱歉，僅此而已。

I think I'll put all those questions together in one answer. If you go to the page that's in the report where we sort of say, look at the difference between the consumer business in '19 and now. And it's something to be excited about because we have -- during a period of time where we were completely shut down in branches, like 2,000 opened back up.

我想我會把所有這些問題放在一個答案中。如果你去我們說的報告中的頁面，看看 19 年和現在的消費者業務之間的區別。這是一件令人興奮的事情，因為我們有——在我們完全關閉分支機構的一段時間內，比如 2,000 家分支機構重新開放。

We actually went down from 4,300 branches to 3,900 branches. We built out in a lot of new cities. We still have work. We have 10% more checking accounts. The customer favorability is an all-time high. Our small business part of that business is the biggest in the country and growing.

我們實際上從 4,300 個分支機構減少到 3,900 個分支機構。我們在許多新城市中建立起來。我們還有工作。我們的支票賬戶增加了 10%。客戶好感度創歷史新高。我們在該業務中的小型業務部分是該國最大的，並且還在不斷增長。

And you look at that, and that provides a great anchor, which provides a great stable deposit base. We showed you on the slide where we showed that base. It also provides a lot of very low-cost deposits. And as rates rise and materialize that. And then if you think what happened last cycle, for a year when rates did not move up, we continue to grow deposits in the consumer business in the mid-single digits, which just is infinite leverage.

你看看那個，它提供了一個很好的錨點，它提供了一個很好的穩定存款基礎。我們在展示該基地的幻燈片上向您展示了這一點。它還提供了大量非常低成本的存款。隨著利率上升並實現這一點。然後，如果你想一想上一個週期發生的事情，在利率沒有上升的一年裡，我們繼續以中等個位數的速度增加消費者業務的存款，這就是無限槓桿。

And so that's something to be excited about from not only a customer side, where we're digitized and Zelle usage is going up. Erica usage is going up, Erica, meaning our Erica, not you, Erika. But the -- and the balance of the consumer investments, opened up 7% more accounts in a year where investment world was choppy.

因此，這不僅是客戶方面令人興奮的事情，我們已經數字化，而且 Zelle 的使用率正在上升。埃里卡的使用率在上升，埃里卡，意思是我們的埃里卡，而不是你，埃里卡。但是，在投資世界動蕩的一年裡，消費者投資的餘額增加了 7%。

And then you pair that into the wealth management business, same thing, one of the biggest deposit franchise in the country. Biggest -- 3-point-something trillion, high $3 trillion of assets, growing net households at the fastest rate it's grown in a long, long time, maybe history, growing advisers. Those are things to get excited. That's the organic growth engine in the company.

然後你將其與財富管理業務配對，同樣的事情，該國最大的存款特許經營權之一。最大的——3 點多萬億，高達 3 萬億美元的資產，淨家庭的增長速度是很長很長一段時間以來增長最快的，也許是歷史上，不斷增長的顧問。這些都是令人興奮的事情。這是公司的有機增長引擎。

You got to put that against the backdrop of a plateauing of NII, which is basically what Alastair said, sort of think about less variability around the $14.4 billion starting number, which Mike analyzed and did math. And so he did the math and made it out, but that provides us a good base of which to drive forward. And so you really got to get through the economic uncertainty, and then all those things will start to bear. Meanwhile, the trading business, which we invested in a couple of years ago now is at its best fourth quarter ever, and Jimmy and the team are doing a good shape.

你必須把它放在 NII 趨於平穩的背景下，這基本上就是 Alastair 所說的，有點考慮圍繞 144 億美元起始數字的較小可變性，Mike 分析並做了數學。所以他做了數學計算並得出結論，但這為我們提供了一個良好的基礎來推動前進。所以你真的必須度過經濟的不確定性，然後所有這些事情都會開始承受。與此同時，我們幾年前投資的貿易業務現在正處於有史以來最好的第四季度，吉米和他的團隊表現良好。

And so I -- we just feel good about the overall franchise, more customers, more of each customer, and then that provides a big stable base, which as rate increases slow down, the marginal impact of it will slow down until we see the good core loan and deposit growth, which you saw after rate -- the last rate rising increase stopped and produced the 20 quarters of operating leverage -- and things like that. So that's pretty good to be excited about. Biggest bank growing its franchise (inaudible) growing solid economy in the world at a faster rate than anybody else is pretty interesting.

所以我 - 我們對整體特許經營感覺良好，更多的客戶，每個客戶更多，然後提供了一個很大的穩定基礎，隨著利率增長放緩，它的邊際影響將會放緩，直到我們看到良好的核心貸款和存款增長，你在利率之後看到——上一次利率上升停止並產生了 20 個季度的經營槓桿——以及類似的事情。所以這很令人興奮。最大的銀行增加其特許經營權（聽不清）以比其他任何人更快的速度在世界上發展穩固的經濟，這非常有趣。

Just to clarify, Brian, you mentioned the plateauing of NII and then, hopefully, all the investments in the business will drive growth from there. Is that still possible if we have continued rate cuts through 2024?

只是澄清一下，布賴恩，你提到了 NII 的平穩期，然後希望所有對該業務的投資都將推動增長。如果我們在 2024 年之前繼續降息，這還有可能嗎？

The scenario of rate cuts and rate rises, we basically use blue chip. So I'm not sure. It depends on what's causing that. So if it's a normalization of the rate curve back to say, 3% on the front end, 4.5% at the back end or something like that. That's different than what you saw when they had to cut rates for the pandemic or after the financial crisis and left in there for years to get the engine of the United States economy restarted.

降息和加息的場景，我們基本都是用藍籌。所以我不確定。這取決於是什麼原因造成的。因此，如果它是利率曲線的正常化，前端為 3%，後端為 4.5% 或類似的東西。這與你看到的不同，當時他們不得不為大流行病或金融危機後降息，並在那裡停留多年以重啟美國經濟的引擎。

What's different this time, frankly, and that's what we're talking about the consumer data is even with strong rise in interest rates, a less tight labor market and inflation and what people are being told to worry about, you're actually seeing consumer spending consistent with a good 2% growth environment, a low inflation environment, which is good because the consumer is being appropriately conservative right now.

坦率地說，這一次有什麼不同，這就是我們談論的消費者數據，即使利率強勁上升、勞動力市場不那麼緊張和通貨膨脹，人們被告知要擔心的是，你實際上看到消費者支出與良好的 2% 增長環境、低通脹環境相一致，這很好，因為消費者現在正處於適當的保守狀態。

Erika, the other thing I'd just say is you think about why we've got a slowdown in some of our fee-based businesses right now, it's because rates have risen so quickly, and that's created a lot of volatility and it's created -- the asset management business, it's had a sell-off in bonds and stocks. So we're poised now in a lower base where we can grow from here. Same thing, if you look at our net income, we've really outrun a pretty historic decline in investment banking fees. So we got a diversified set of businesses where as some normalcy returns, we can see some pickup in those fee lines as well.

Erika，我要說的另一件事是你想一想為什麼我們現在的一些收費業務放緩，這是因為利率上升得太快了，這造成了很大的波動，而且它已經產生了-- 資產管理業務，債券和股票遭到拋售。所以我們現在準備在一個較低的基地，我們可以從這裡發展。同樣，如果你看一下我們的淨收入，我們確實已經超過了投資銀行費用的歷史性下降。因此，我們擁有一組多元化的業務，隨著一些常態回報，我們也可以看到這些費用線有所回升。

We'll go next to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起去 Ken Usdin 旁邊。

I wanted to follow up, Alastair. You had about $800 million of incremental interest income from the securities book. And I'm just wondering if you can help us understand, how much of that was attributed to the continued benefit from the swap portfolio? And also then how would you expect that to impact your outlook for the $14.4 billion in the first quarter guide?

我想跟進，阿拉斯泰爾。您從證券賬簿中獲得了大約 8 億美元的增量利息收入。我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解，其中有多少歸因於掉期投資組合的持續收益？然後，您預計這將如何影響您對第一季度 144 億美元的展望？

Yes. So most of the increase in securities portfolio, we're not really reinvesting in there at this point as the securities portfolio started declining. We're using the money that's throwing off to put it into loans. That's always our first preferred place.

是的。因此，隨著證券投資組合開始下降，我們目前並沒有真正對證券投資組合的大部分增長進行再投資。我們正在使用扔掉的錢來貸款。這始終是我們的首選地點。

So you're picking up on the right thing. It's mainly the treasuries that are in there. They're swapped to floating. That way, we don't have any capital impact from rising rates. And so you're going to see the securities yield just continue to pick up, number one, based off of the treasuries swap to floating as floating rates go higher; and number two, as the securities come due, there'll be fewer and fewer of them at lower rates. And so you're going to see the pickup over time.

所以你選擇了正確的東西。裡面主要是國庫。它們被交換為浮動。這樣，我們就不會因利率上升而受到任何資本影響。所以你會看到證券收益率繼續上升，第一，基於隨著浮動利率走高，國債掉期變為浮動；第二，隨著證券到期，利率較低的證券會越來越少。所以你會隨著時間的推移看到皮卡。

And just as a follow-up, what's our best benchmark rate to kind of watch that trajectory for how we can understand that helper from that swap portfolio?

作為後續行動，我們最好的基準利率是多少，以觀察我們如何從該掉期投資組合中了解該幫助者的軌跡？

Normally, it's SOFR, secured overnight financing rate.

通常，它是 SOFR，有擔保的隔夜融資利率。

Okay. Great. Second quick one, just on capital. You had 20 basis points increase in your CET1. You did $1 billion or so of the buyback. Just wondering how you're thinking about capital return with the bar package of rules still ahead of us going forward.

好的。偉大的。第二個快速的，只是資本。你的 CET1 提高了 20 個基點。你做了 10 億美元左右的回購。只是想知道你是如何考慮資本回報的，而一攬子規則仍然領先於我們前進。

Well, I think Brian said the right things. The strategy hasn't changed. We've got to, number one, support our clients; we're going to, number two, invest in our growth. Then we plan to just sustain and grow our dividend and over time, we'll balance building capital and buying back shares.

好吧，我認為布賴恩說的是對的。戰略沒有改變。第一，我們必須支持我們的客戶；第二，我們將投資於我們的增長。然後我們計劃只維持和增加我們的股息，隨著時間的推移，我們將平衡建立資本和回購股票。

I think the difficult part with Basel III endgame right now is we don't have the rules. So we got to wait, I think, until we see those. They'll go through a comment period. At that point, we'll offer much more perspective. But I'll say the obvious, banks have got plenty of capital. We were asked to take 90 basis points more in June. There's a lot of procyclicality already in things like the stress test and stress capital buffer and in CECL. And I think, look, we've shown our ability to perform and build capital, in this case, 75 basis points in 2 quarters. So we'll deal with whatever the ultimate rules come out with.

我認為現在巴塞爾協議 III 殘局的困難部分是我們沒有規則。所以我們必須等待，我想，直到我們看到那些。他們將進入評論期。到那時，我們將提供更多的觀點。但我會說顯而易見的是，銀行擁有充足的資本。我們被要求在 6 月份再降息 90 個基點。在壓力測試和壓力資本緩衝以及 CECL 等方面已經存在很多順週期性。而且我認為，看，我們已經展示了我們執行和建立資本的能力，在這種情況下，在 2 個季度內達到 75 個基點。所以我們將處理最終規則的任何內容。

Our next question comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Have you guys thought about how to better insulate yourself against potentially lower rates? And not just kind of a little bit of a decline, but if we get something unusual and rates drop a lot. I know it's easier for some of the smaller banks to do it, but we have seen some regional banks essentially kind of lock in a corridor of the NIM so that kind of medium term, it's more about growing the balance sheet versus the rate moves up and down. And clearly, with your deposit rates low, if we do get Fed cuts, there's just not as much leverage to bring down those rates.

你們有沒有想過如何更好地使自己免受潛在的較低利率的影響？不僅是一點點下降，而且如果我們遇到不尋常的事情並且利率下降很多。我知道一些較小的銀行更容易做到這一點，但我們已經看到一些地區性銀行基本上鎖定了 NIM 的走廊，所以從中期來看，更多的是增加資產負債表而不是利率上升和下來。很明顯，在你的存款利率很低的情況下，如果我們真的讓美聯儲降息，那麼降低這些利率的槓桿作用就沒有那麼大了。

Yes. So I don't know that we've thought about it in terms of like a corridor of NIM, but we definitely think about balancing earnings and capital and liquidity through the cycle. So I don't see us making significant changes to our core. We're trying to make sure that we operate and deliver in all rate environments. That can be high or 2 years ago, it can be 0 rate environment.

是的。所以我不知道我們是否考慮過像 NIM 走廊這樣的問題，但我們肯定會考慮在整個週期中平衡收益、資本和流動性。所以我認為我們不會對我們的核心做出重大改變。我們正在努力確保我們在所有費率環境中運營和交付。那可以是高的，也可以是 2 年前，它可以是 0 利率環境。

So the changes -- you can start to see our changes at the margin. You can see we're taking securities out and replacing them with loans, and you can see everything restriking higher. So we've got a smaller, more efficient balance sheet.

所以這些變化——你可以開始在邊緣看到我們的變化。你可以看到我們正在取出證券並用貸款取而代之，你可以看到一切都在重新上漲。所以我們有一個更小、更有效的資產負債表。

We, at the margin may consider fixing some rates here depending on how things develop over the quarter. But it's -- we've had a pretty, I'd say, good strategy that's allowed us to drive net interest yields. You can see those on Page 16. They're up 46% over the course of the past year and drive the NII. That's up $3.3 billion year-over-year. So we feel like we struck that balance. That's what responsible growth means to us. And at the margin, we'll probably still maintain a little bit of asset sensitivity.

我們可能會根據本季度的發展情況考慮在這裡固定一些利率。但它 - 我們有一個漂亮的，我想說的好策略，使我們能夠推動淨利息收益率。您可以在第 16 頁上看到它們。它們在過去一年中增長了 46%，並推動了 NII。同比增長 33 億美元。所以我們覺得我們達到了這種平衡。這就是負責任的增長對我們意味著什麼。在保證金方面，我們可能仍會保持一點資產敏感性。

We'll take our next question from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們將與摩根士丹利一起接受 Betsy Graseck 的下一個問題。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we can.

我們可以。

Okay. Great. Two questions. One, just a little more color on the loan growth outlook. I heard you on expecting that loan growth will be slowing as you go through the year. And I just wanted to get an understanding of -- is that more just demand slowing base effects? Or is there also anything in there from you on proactive credit decisioning as normalization comes through the rest of the year?

好的。偉大的。兩個問題。第一，貸款增長前景略有不同。我聽說你預計今年貸款增長會放緩。而且我只是想了解 - 是否更多只是需求放緩的基礎效應？或者，隨著今年餘下時間的正常化，您是否還有關於主動信貸決策的任何內容？

That's a couple of things. If you look in the fourth quarter, you can see the cards come up, which seasonal, and that's going to come down, and that's one of the things that -- people tend to pay those down. The usage of those cards frankly, are still at low levels. The pay rate, the way to think about that, still in the 30s. So that's sort of one thing that's been kind of consistent through the pandemic. The customers are paying down the card balances. And you expect at some point, those will get back to more normalized paydown rate in the mid-20s.

這是兩件事。如果你看看第四季度，你會看到卡片出現了，哪個是季節性的，而且會下降，這就是人們傾向於支付這些費用的原因之一。坦率地說，這些卡的使用率仍然很低。工資率，考慮的方式，仍然在 30 多歲。所以這是在整個大流行期間一直保持一致的一件事。客戶正在支付卡餘額。你預計在某個時候，這些將在 20 年代中期恢復到更正常的支付率。

The second is line usage, frankly, has also come back down. It's not gotten ever back to where it was pre-pandemic, and it moved up and it dropped by 100 or so basis points, which across a lot of lines, is a fair amount of loans. So that you saw.

第二是線路使用率，坦率地說，也回落了。它再也沒有回到大流行前的水平，它上升了，下降了 100 個基點左右，這在很多方面都是一筆相當大的貸款。以至於你看到了。

And so how corporates manage their borrowing and cash and demand cycle seems to be flattening out a little bit. Then obviously, acquisitions and things are way slowed down, so there wasn't much activity there. So I think you put it together, then you have -- in the securities-based business, customers took down leverage, paid off a fair amount of loans in the wealth management business, even though they've grown, I think, for 50-some quarters in a row now or something like that in loan balances. This happens -- mortgages, obviously, are low.

因此，企業如何管理其借貸和現金以及需求週期似乎正在趨於平緩。然後很明顯，收購和事情都放慢了速度，所以那裡沒有太多活動。所以我想你把它放在一起，然後你有 - 在基於證券的業務中，客戶降低了槓桿，在財富管理業務中還清了相當數量的貸款，儘管我認為他們已經增長了 50 -現在連續幾個季度或類似的貸款餘額。這種情況發生了——很明顯，抵押貸款很低。

So -- but what we think is as the rate environment settles in, you'll see that normalize and that we'll get -- we'll be back on the mid-single digits. We just won't have the 10% loan growth year-over-year because that is faster than economy and faster than we do. We have not changed credit underwriting standards. And you can see that in the consistency of the origination standards back in pages the appendix where we show sort of our cards and home equity and things like that. It's just the demand side is a little soft because people are reading the same headlines we're all reading about, a recession is coming and what should -- and they should be careful.

所以——但我們認為，隨著利率環境的穩定，你會看到正常化，我們會得到——我們將回到中個位數。我們只是不會有 10% 的貸款同比增長，因為這比經濟增長更快，也比我們更快。我們沒有改變信用承銷標準。你可以在附錄的頁面中看到原始標準的一致性，我們在附錄中展示了我們的卡片和房屋淨值以及類似的東西。只是需求方面有點疲軟，因為人們正在閱讀我們都在閱讀的相同標題，經濟衰退即將來臨，應該發生什麼——他們應該小心。

Okay. Got it. And then on the expense side, I know we talked a lot about the NII and the puts and takes as you go through the year that you're looking for. What about stability on the expense line to manage through any worse-than-expected outcomes on the NII? What kind of levers do you think you have to pull there, Brian?

好的。知道了。然後在費用方面，我知道我們討論了很多關於 NII 以及你正在尋找的那一年的看跌期權和看跌期權。通過 NII 上任何比預期更糟糕的結果來管理費用線的穩定性如何？布賴恩，你認為你必須使用什麼樣的槓桿？

Well, we always have -- the variable compensation stuff will drop because -- assuming that the reason why rates are going -- being cut is because economic activity is worse than people thought. And then you have the general just efficiency movements in the house that we've been pretty good at.

好吧，我們總是有——可變薪酬的東西會下降，因為——假設利率上升的原因——被削減是因為經濟活動比人們想像的要糟糕。然後你在我們一直非常擅長的房子裡進行了一般的效率運動。

And then you have to remember, we try to get people to go off of nominal expense to operating leverage. And so we have 6 quarters of operating leverage. As NII growth slows down, we have to manage a company to produce operating leverage. And so we'd expect that fees might stabilize and absorb the $1 billion downdraft in quarterly investment banking fees and start to work up from there and other types of things.

然後你必須記住，我們試圖讓人們從名義上的支出轉向經營槓桿。所以我們有 6 個季度的經營槓桿。隨著 NII 增長放緩，我們必須管理一家公司以產生經營槓桿。因此，我們預計費用可能會穩定下來並吸收季度投資銀行費用下降的 10 億美元，並從那里和其他類型的事情開始增加。

So I think we feel very good about the ability to find ways to manage expenses, always have. We slowed down hiring as we came into the fourth quarter, not because we're -- because frankly, we were -- we've gotten our hiring to match the Great Resignation earlier in the year, and it was sort of overachieving. So we slowed that down, and that will allow us to get back in line and start to bring the headcount back down to where we want it to be. But those are, frankly, positions that are relatively -- that have a relatively high movement rate, and only because of the nature of the job.

所以我認為我們對找到管理費用的方法的能力感覺非常好，一直都有。進入第四季度時，我們放慢了招聘速度，並不是因為我們——因為坦率地說，我們——我們的招聘與今年早些時候的大辭職相匹配，而且有點超額完成。所以我們放慢了速度，這將使我們能夠重新排隊並開始將員工人數減少到我們想要的水平。但坦率地說，這些職位的流動率相對較高，這只是因為工作的性質。

So we feel good about -- between variable rate compensation -- between continuing to reduce headcount for efficiency and frankly, just activity levels. In a down scenario, we'll be able to pull the expenses down. But yes, meanwhile, we're going to invest $3.7 billion in technology development in '23 versus $3.4 billion in '22.

因此，我們對 - 在可變利率補償之間 - 在繼續減少員工人數以提高效率和坦率地說，只是活動水平之間感覺很好。在經濟低迷的情況下，我們將能夠降低開支。但是，是的，與此同時，我們將在 23 年投資 37 億美元用於技術開發，而 22 年為 34 億美元。

We continue to add bankers. We added 800 wealth management advisers in the second half of last year. We're -- our training program for those across wealth -- all our wealth management businesses and other training programs. We continue to hire young talented people. So we're trying to maintain that balance of continuing to invest in the growth and opening in new cities. We're averaging -- these branches we're opening are extremely successful when you look at the size of them relative to anybody else's opening practice. And so why would you just stop that? And yet the total number of branches comes down because we're managing the expense side.

我們繼續增加莊家。我們在去年下半年增加了 800 名財富管理顧問。我們是——我們針對財富管理人員的培訓計劃——我們所有的財富管理業務和其他培訓計劃。我們繼續聘用年輕有才華的人。因此，我們正努力保持繼續投資於新城市的增長和開放的平衡。我們正在平均 - 當您查看它們相對於其他任何人的開業實踐的規模時，我們正在開設的這些分支機構非常成功。那你為什麼要停止呢？然而，分支機構的總數卻下降了，因為我們正在管理費用方面。

So we're paying for this stuff as we go. But -- and so you could slow some of that down and get leverage out of it. But the question would be, as we're in that scenario, is that the right decision for long-term value creation?

所以我們正在為這些東西付錢。但是 - 所以你可以放慢其中的一些速度並從中獲得影響力。但問題是，正如我們在那種情況下，這是創造長期價值的正確決定嗎？

We'll go next to Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

我們將與 JPMorgan 一起去 Vivek Juneja。

A couple of clarifications on the same NII question. I just want to understand, in your assumption about staying at $14.4 billion through the year on a quarterly basis. Are you assuming deposits to continue growing or shrinking? Number one, are you expecting further rotation out of noninterest-bearing to interest bearing? And do you expect the $14.4 billion number even if there are rate cuts towards the end of the year. Is that number doable even with -- what is it that you're assuming? Is it even with rate cuts?

對同一個 NII 問題的一些澄清。我只想了解，在您假設全年每季度保持在 144 億美元的情況下。您是否假設存款會繼續增長或減少？第一，您是否期望進一步從無息轉向有息？即使在年底降息，您是否預計會有 144 億美元的數字？這個數字是否可行——你假設的是什麼？甚至降息嗎？

So Vivek, we just said less -- there'd be less variability around that number due to the fact the market stuff has gone to 0. That has no impact on it that you saw over the last few quarters have impact. So less variability. All the things you cited are the reasons why we tend to say you have to be careful about saying what's going to happen in the fourth quarter '23 with great clarity. What we did say is at this level, with less variability, you'll have nice growth over this year than next year.

所以 Vivek，我們只是說得少了——由於市場因素已經變為 0，因此這個數字的可變性較小。這對你在過去幾個季度看到的影響沒有影響。所以可變性較小。您引用的所有內容都是我們傾向於說您必須非常清楚地說明 23 年第四季度將要發生的事情的原因。我們所說的是在這個水平上，由於可變性較小，今年的增長會比明年好。

But I think everything you point out, whether it's rates going up faster than people think because inflation doesn't go or come down because people think that they've done a good job and they want to get behind the economy. We base our modeling on the blue chip economic assumptions out there and then looking at our balances and stuff.

但我認為你指出的一切，無論是利率上升速度比人們想像的要快是因為通貨膨脹沒有下降，還是因為人們認為他們做得很好並且他們想要落後於經濟而下降。我們將我們的模型建立在藍籌經濟假設的基礎上，然後查看我們的餘額和其他東西。

And so I think that's a reluctance. So all your points are great points, and they're all reasons why we are reluctant to say, I can tell you to the 3 decimal places what it's going to be 3 quarters out because it can move around on you. And to Mike's earlier point, we grew $1.2 billion and $900 million in linked quarter, and somehow people thought that wasn't good enough because there's math that could have -- would have gotten you different.

所以我認為這是一種勉強。所以你所有的觀點都是很好的觀點，它們都是我們不願意說的原因，我可以告訴你小數點後 3 位，因為它可以在你身上移動。對於邁克之前的觀點，我們在相關季度增長了 12 億美元和 9 億美元，不知何故，人們認為這還不夠好，因為數學可能會讓你與眾不同。

So stay tuned and we'll tell you what we know when we know it. And -- but it's good organic customer growth, 1 million net new checking accounts starting at $5,000 balances, growth in wealth management and loans and deposits. These are things that stick with you and will be good no matter what the scenario.

所以請繼續關注，我們會告訴你我們知道的事情。而且 - 但這是良好的有機客戶增長，100 萬個淨新支票賬戶餘額從 5,000 美元起，財富管理以及貸款和存款的增長。這些是你堅持的東西，無論在什麼情況下都會很好。

Another -- a different question slightly. You gave the $2,000 to $5,000 deposit cohort, Brian, in terms of where they are in the deposit balances. In the past, you've also given a cohort below that, like $1,000 type cohort. Where does -- how is that doing? Can you give any numbers on that?

另一個 - 稍微不同的問題。你給了 2,000 美元到 5,000 美元的存款隊列，布賴恩，根據他們在存款餘額中的位置。過去，您還提供了一個低於此的同類群組，例如 1,000 美元類型的同類群組。在哪裡 - 那怎麼樣？你能給出任何數字嗎？

It's similar. It's -- they're all moving down very slightly, that average balance. So that same group of customers taken out, I'd say -- so it's in the same sort of -- different sizing, but it's the same thing. I don't have it right in front of me, but we'll -- I'll have Lee get it to you. But I don't -- but it's moving down slightly.

這是相似的。這是——他們都在略微下降，即平均平衡。因此，同一組客戶被淘汰了，我會說 - 所以它是同一種 - 不同的尺寸，但它是同一件事。我面前沒有它，但我們會讓 - 我會讓李把它交給你。但我沒有——但它正在小幅下降。

The interesting part of that, Vivek, obviously, is in the highest average balances. You actually have seen them down from pre-pandemic, which means you saw them reposition that in the market. So going to your earlier question, we may have seen a lot of that already take place. But think of them as being down slightly quarter-over-quarter in that cohort.

其中有趣的部分，Vivek，顯然是最高的平均餘額。你實際上已經看到他們從大流行前開始下降，這意味著你看到他們在市場上重新定位。所以回到你之前的問題，我們可能已經看到很多這樣的事情已經發生了。但可以認為他們在該隊列中環比略有下降。

We have no further questions in queue at this time. I'd like to turn the program back over to Brian Moynihan for any additional or closing remarks.

目前我們沒有其他問題需要排隊。我想將程序轉回給 Brian Moynihan 以徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

Thank all of you. Good quarter to finish 2022, and thank you to our teammates for producing it. We continue to grow earnings year-over-year. We have good organic growth and operating leverage for the sixth straight quarter. Those will continue in 2023.

謝謝大家。 2022 年結束的好季度，感謝我們的隊友製作它。我們的收入繼續逐年增長。我們連續第六個季度實現了良好的有機增長和經營槓桿。這些將在 2023 年繼續。

The asset quality in the company continues to remain at historic lows relative to any normalized time period in the company's history, including the strong credit performance we had just leading into the pandemic. So our job is now to drive what we can control, which is the organic growth of the franchise, the investments that we make are bearing fruit and also to keep the expenses in good control, and we plan to do that in 2023.

相對於公司歷史上任何正常時期，公司的資產質量繼續保持在歷史低位，包括我們剛剛導致大流行的強勁信貸表現。因此，我們現在的工作是推動我們可以控制的事情，即特許經營的有機增長，我們所做的投資正在取得成果，同時也將開支控制在良好的水平，我們計劃在 2023 年做到這一點。

Thank you, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

謝謝，我們期待下個季度與您交談。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。