美國銀行 (BAC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Bank of America earnings announcement. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call may be recorded, and I will be standing by if you should need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Lee McEntire. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎收看今天的美國銀行收益公告。 （操作員說明）請注意，此呼叫可能會被錄音，如果您需要任何幫助，我會隨時待命。現在我很高興將今天的節目交給 Lee McEntire。請繼續。

Thank you, Katherine. Good morning. Welcome. Hope everyone has had a good weekend. Thank you for joining the call to review our third quarter results. I hope everyone has had -- also had a chance to review our earnings documents released earlier this morning.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。早上好。歡迎。希望每個人都度過了一個愉快的周末。感謝您加入電話會議以審查我們的第三季度業績。我希望每個人都有 - 也有機會查看我們今天早上早些時候發布的收益文件。

As always, they're available, including the earnings presentation that Brian and Alastair will refer to during the call on the Investor Relations section of the bankofamerica.com website. I'm going to first turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Moynihan, for some opening comments, and then I'll ask Alastair Borthwick, our CFO, to cover the details of the quarter.

與往常一樣，它們是可用的，包括 Brian 和 Alastair 將在 bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分的電話會議期間提到的收益演示文稿。我將首先將電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Brian Moynihan，以獲得一些開場評論，然後我將請我們的首席財務官 Alastair Borthwick 介紹本季度的詳細信息。

Before I turn the call over to Brian, I'll just remind you that we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and they're subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to materially differ from expectations are detailed in our earnings materials and the SEC filings that are available on the website.

在我將電話轉給布賴恩之前，我只想提醒您，我們可能會在電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述並參考非公認會計準則財務指標。前瞻性陳述基於管理層當前的預期和假設，它們受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致實際結果與預期產生重大差異的因素在我們的收益材料和網站上提供的 SEC 文件中有詳細說明。

Information about non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to U.S. GAAP, can also be found in our earnings materials that are available on the website and in the docs. So with that, I will turn it over to you, Brian. Thank you.

有關非 GAAP 財務指標的信息，包括與美國 GAAP 的對賬，也可以在我們的網站和文檔中提供的收益材料中找到。有了這個，我會把它交給你，布賴恩。謝謝你。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I want to start by sending our thoughts to the impacted areas from the devastation of the recent storms, especially our impacted teammates and their families. Our teams remain busy assisting those clients and associates in the impacted areas. So we're going to start on Slide 2 of the earnings materials.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。我想首先將我們的想法傳達給受最近風暴破壞的受影響地區，特別是我們受影響的隊友及其家人。我們的團隊仍在忙於幫助受影響地區的客戶和員工。因此，我們將從收益材料的幻燈片 2 開始。

This quarter, Bank of America reported $7.1 billion in net income or $0.81 per diluted share. We grew revenue 8% year-over-year. We delivered our fifth straight quarter of operating leverage. Every business segment delivered operating leverage. This takes us back to our 5-year run before the pandemic. The highlights of this quarter were also once again marked by good organic customer activity. This was coupled with a significant increase in net interest income. In addition, the teams adapted well to our new capital requirements. And as a result, our common equity Tier 1 ratio or CET1 ratio improved by nearly 50 basis points to 11%, moving 60 basis points above its current minimums.

本季度，美國銀行公佈了 71 億美元的淨收入或每股攤薄收益 0.81 美元。我們的收入同比增長 8%。我們連續第五個季度實現了經營槓桿。每個業務部門都提供了經營槓桿。這使我們回到了大流行之前的 5 年運行。本季度的亮點也再次以良好的有機客戶活動為標誌。這與淨利息收入的顯著增加相結合。此外，這些團隊很好地適應了我們新的資本要求。因此，我們的普通股一級比率或 CET1 比率提高了近 50 個基點至 11%，比當前最低值高出 60 個基點。

The decline from prior year reported net income and EPS comparisons reflect a reserve build versus reserve release from last year. At the same time, however, our asset quality remains strong as net charge-offs and several other metrics, in fact, improved from the second quarter 2022. Pretax, pre-provision income grew 10% year-over-year. From a return perspective, we produced a 15% ROTCE and a 90 basis point ROA.

與上年報告的淨收入和每股收益比較相比的下降反映了與去年相比的儲備增加與儲備釋放。然而，與此同時，我們的資產質量仍然強勁，因為淨沖銷和其他幾個指標實際上比 2022 年第二季度有所改善。稅前、撥備前收入同比增長 10%。從回報的角度來看，我們產生了 15% 的 ROTCE 和 90 個基點的 ROA。

Our efficiency ratio this quarter dropped to 62%, taking up the litigation, it would have been 61%. So even while investing in marketing and people and technology and physical plan, the team continues to drive operational excellence. An easy way to think about this is we currently operate Bank of America with less people than we had in 2015, 7 years ago.

我們這個季度的效率下降到了62%，如果提起訴訟，本來應該是61%。因此，即使在對營銷、人員、技術和物理計劃進行投資的同時，該團隊仍繼續推動卓越運營。考慮這一點的一個簡單方法是，我們目前經營美國銀行的人數比 7 年前的 2015 年要少。

Let's go to Slide 3. Those continued investments over the past several years in our people, tools and resources for our customers and teammates as well as our new and renovated financial centers have allowed us to continually enhance the customer experience and fuel organic growth as we drive responsible growth.

讓我們看幻燈片 3。過去幾年對我們的客戶和隊友以及我們新的和翻新的金融中心的人員、工具和資源的持續投資使我們能夠不斷提升客戶體驗並推動有機增長，因為我們推動負責任的增長。

In the third quarter alone, we added more than 400,000 plus net new consumer checking accounts. We added 1.3 million new credit card accounts. We added 100,000 new funded investment accounts in our consumer business. Customers are finding increasingly convenient to access us. Digital users grew to 56 million. Logins by those users cleared 3 billion in the past quarter, 1 billion per month.

僅在第三季度，我們就新增了超過 400,000 個新的消費者支票賬戶。我們新增了 130 萬個信用卡賬戶。我們在消費業務中新增了 100,000 個資金投資賬戶。客戶發現訪問我們越來越方便。數字用戶增長到 5600 萬。這些用戶的登錄在上個季度清除了 30 億次，每月 10 億次。

Erica surpassed 1 billion interactions since it was introduced 4 years ago this quarter. It has become a primary interaction method for our clients with more than 130 million interactions this quarter alone. When you look at our sales, 48% of third quarter sales are digital, a 36% year-over-year increase. This occurred even as we fully reopened our financial centers and had our teammates also selling.

自 4 年前本季度推出以來，Erica 的互動次數已超過 10 億次。它已成為我們客戶的主要互動方式，僅本季度就有超過 1.3 億次互動。當您查看我們的銷售額時，第三季度 48% 的銷售額是數字銷售額，同比增長 36%。即使我們完全重新開放了我們的金融中心並且我們的隊友也在出售，這種情況發生了。

Now once again, you can find all these digital statistics and more in the appendix of our earnings material as usual. I encourage you look at those statistics, where every [wanted lines of business], not just consumer. They compare favorably to the competitive measures that we see because when we see people actually publish their numbers. At the same time, 27 million customers visit our financial center in the quarter. This highlights importance of having both high-touch and high-tech approach. In the wealth management business, we added 400 advisers this quarter.

現在再一次，您可以像往常一樣在我們的收益材料的附錄中找到所有這些數字統計數據和更多信息。我鼓勵您查看這些統計數據，其中包括每個 [想要的業務線]，而不僅僅是消費者。它們與我們看到的競爭指標相比是有利的，因為當我們看到人們實際公佈他們的數字時。與此同時，本季度有 2700 萬客戶訪問我們的金融中心。這凸顯了同時擁有高接觸和高科技方法的重要性。在財富管理業務方面，本季度我們增加了 400 名顧問。

Our advisers added nearly 6,000 new households in the Merrill and Private Bank areas. We saw a solid net flows despite the turbulence of markets. 80% of our GWIM customers are digitally active. 30% the new Merrill accounts are open digitally. That, combined with our consumer investments business has seen more than $100 billion of net acquired flows year-to-date.

我們的顧問在美林和私人銀行地區增加了近 6,000 個新家庭。儘管市場動盪，我們還是看到了穩定的淨流量。我們 80% 的 GWIM 客戶在數字方面都很活躍。 30% 的新美林賬戶以數字方式開立。再加上我們的消費者投資業務，今年迄今已獲得超過 1000 億美元的淨收購流量。

We continue to see increased activity both in investments as well as the banking products in this area. This quarter, GWIM opened a record number of bank accounts. GWIM also saw its 50th consecutive quarter of average loan growth. The banking capabilities and success differentiates our platform. The business grew revenue, delivered operating leverage and saw a record pretax, pre-provision growth, even in choppy markets.

我們繼續看到該領域的投資和銀行產品活動增加。本季度，GWIM 開設了創紀錄數量的銀行賬戶。 GWIM 還實現了連續第 50 個季度的平均貸款增長。銀行業務能力和成功使我們的平台與眾不同。該業務增加了收入，提供了經營槓桿，並看到了創紀錄的稅前和撥備前增長，即使在動蕩的市場中也是如此。

As we turn to Global Banking, ending loan balances were down linked quarter. However, we did see solid production in this area, and that was offset by client paydowns, decreasing the value of 400 nominated loans and loans sold to manage our risk-weighted assets. which helped us build the capital levels I talked about earlier. As we look at global markets, the team had a strong third quarter in sales and trading performance.

當我們轉向全球銀行業務時，期末貸款餘額與季度相關。然而，我們確實看到了該領域的穩健生產，這被客戶還款所抵消，減少了 400 筆指定貸款和出售以管理我們的風險加權資產的貸款的價值。這幫助我們建立了我之前談到的資本水平。縱觀全球市場，該團隊第三季度的銷售和交易表現強勁。

In fact, the third quarter of 2022 was the strongest since the third quarter of 2010. It grew 13% from last year. It was led by strong performance in our macro FICC business, which has benefited by investments made over the past year. We had no trading loss days this quarter. Let me also make a few points using the customer activity highlighted on the continued resilience of Bank of America's broad customer base.

事實上，2022 年第三季度是自 2010 年第三季度以來最強勁的一年。它比去年增長了 13%。這得益於我們宏觀 FICC 業務的強勁表現，該業務受益於過去一年的投資。本季度我們沒有交易虧損日。讓我還利用美國銀行廣泛的客戶群的持續復原力突出顯示的客戶活動提出幾點意見。

So if you look at Slide 4, you can see some points about the overall health that demonstrate what's going on in the customer base. Let me make a couple of key points. First, consumers continue to spend at strong levels. Second, consumer customer average deposit levels for September 2022, remain at multiples of the pre-pandemic levels. You can see that in the lower right. Third, there's plenty of capacity for borrowing as credit and card balances of BAC are still 12% both pre-pandemic levels, and the payment rates on those credit cards are 1,000 basis points over pre-pandemic levels.

因此，如果您查看幻燈片 4，您可以看到有關整體健康狀況的一些要點，這些要點展示了客戶群中正在發生的事情。讓我提出幾個關鍵點。首先，消費者繼續保持強勁的消費水平。其次，2022 年 9 月的消費者客戶平均存款水平保持在大流行前水平的倍數。你可以在右下角看到它。第三，BAC的信用卡和信用卡餘額仍然是疫情前水平的12%，而且這些信用卡的還款率比疫情前水平高出1000個基點，因此借貸能力充足。

So on spending a couple thoughts. A perspicacious analyst might wonder whether [talk of] inflation recession and other factors would fructify in a slower spending growth. We just don't see here at Bank of America. Year-to-date spending of $3.1 trillion through September is up 12% compared to last year. Second, as you look across the period, you can see in the trend of year-over-year spending.

所以花幾個想法。一位敏銳的分析師可能想知道[談論]通脹衰退和其他因素是否會導致支出增長放緩。我們只是在美國銀行看不到。截至 9 月的年初至今支出為 3.1 萬億美元，與去年相比增長了 12%。其次，縱觀整個時期，您可以看到同比支出的趨勢。

As we entered the pandemic, we saw spending decline in click of recover than grow across the quarters. And while still strong in September 10%, spending growth has slowed just a bit from the 12% year-to-date pace, which shows you that early in the year was a faster year-over-year growth rate, but still strong. In the first 2 weeks of October show that strength is still growing at 10%.

隨著我們進入大流行，我們看到點擊恢復的支出下降，而不是整個季度的增長。雖然 9 月的 10% 仍然強勁，但支出增長與年初至今的 12% 相比略有放緩，這表明今年年初的同比增長率更快，但仍然強勁。在 10 月的前 2 周顯示，強度仍在以 10% 的速度增長。

It's notable that this isn't just inflation that is driving spending as a transaction are up single digits year-over-year pretty consistently. You'll also note on the bottom left, the continued growth in goods and services, particularly retail toward experiences on travel and entertainment. While fuel price volatility continues, it is not currently impacting the spend levels in this quarter as prices stabilize.

值得注意的是，推動支出的不僅僅是通貨膨脹，因為交易每年都在以個位數的速度增長。您還將在左下角注意到商品和服務的持續增長，尤其是零售向旅遊和娛樂體驗的發展。儘管燃料價格波動仍在繼續，但隨著價格趨於穩定，目前並未影響本季度的支出水平。

On the level of customer liquidity -- the level of customer liquidity remains strong. Average deposit balances of our consumer customer remained at high levels relative to a year ago. These balances are still multiples of the pre-pandemic periods, and they were largely unchanged at these elevated amounts for the month of September.

在客戶流動性水平上——客戶流動性水平依然強勁。與一年前相比，我們消費者客戶的平均存款餘額保持在較高水平。這些餘額仍然是大流行前時期的倍數，並且在 9 月份的這些較高數額上基本沒有變化。

These deposit levels suggest continued capacity of spending at healthy levels.

這些存款水平表明消費能力保持在健康水平。

On Slide 5, we show you as we did last quarter, some other stats about resiliency. As you can see, whether you look at early or late-stage card delinquencies, they all remain well below our pre-pandemic levels. These are decades-old lows, and we're just now seeing gradual move off these lows and early-stage delinquencies.

在幻燈片 5 上，我們向您展示了與上個季度一樣的其他一些關於彈性的統計數據。如您所見，無論您查看的是早期還是後期的信用卡違約，它們都遠低於我們大流行前的水平。這些是幾十年前的低點，我們現在才看到逐漸擺脫這些低點和早期拖欠。

Late-stage delinquencies are still 40% below pre-pandemic levels. Keep in mind, asset quality metrics were strong even before the pandemic. On this page, what you see is a 30 [to 90] day card delinquencies. If you compare them against the average for the past 5 years leading up to the pandemic, a period of growth and unemployment falling. Those averages of 183 basis points and 91 basis points, respectively.

晚期犯罪率仍比大流行前水平低 40%。請記住，即使在大流行之前，資產質量指標也很強勁。在此頁面上，您看到的是 30 [到 90] 天的信用卡拖欠。如果將它們與導致大流行的過去 5 年的平均水平進行比較，則會發現一段增長和失業率下降的時期。這些平均值分別為 183 個基點和 91 個基點。

So the current ratio of delinquencies have to be worse than 30% or more even approach that 5-year pre-pandemic average at a time of economic growth and falling unemployment. So consumers remain resilient. Let me take a couple of minutes to talk to you quickly about the balance sheet, and I'll turn it over to Alastair. As you think about loan and deposit balances in general, we're seeing what we expected as monetary policy tightens.

因此，在經濟增長和失業率下降的情況下，當前的拖欠率必須低於 30% 或更多，甚至接近大流行前 5 年的平均水平。因此，消費者保持彈性。讓我花幾分鐘時間快速和你談談資產負債表，然後我會把它交給阿拉斯泰爾。當您總體考慮貸款和存款餘額時，隨著貨幣政策收緊，我們看到了我們所預期的情況。

On deposits, we see clients with excess liquidity looking for yield without being the global banking movements, you can see from moving from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing accounts, or in our Wealth Management business, where we saw clients shift out of brokerage sweeps into preferred deposits or other investment products like treasuries that we offer. But if you look at our core customer base, where the transactional balances drive the outcome.

在存款方面，我們看到流動性過剩的客戶在尋求收益而不是全球銀行業的動向，你可以看到從無息賬戶轉向有息賬戶，或者在我們的財富管理業務中，我們看到客戶從經紀業務轉向優先存款或其他投資產品，如我們提供的國債。但是，如果您查看我們的核心客戶群，交易餘額會推動結果。

We are seeing steady balances driven by new account activity and a good value proposition we have for our customers. When you think about loans, consumer loan balance growth was led by card and reflects increased market and continued reopening of financial centers building high levels of new customer relationships.

我們看到新賬戶活動和我們為客戶提供的良好價值主張推動了穩定的餘額。當您考慮貸款時，消費貸款餘額的增長是由信用卡帶動的，這反映了市場的增加和金融中心的持續重新開放，建立了高水平的新客戶關係。

On commercial, the average loans rose $16 billion linked quarter or 12% annualized. We did see a modest ending balance decline as good loan production was offset by the sale of syndication of $3 billion of loans and also by $4 billion in negative foreign currency impacts. We obviously took activity on balance sheet optimization, which helped our RWA discussion -- helped [these] RWAs and led to the capital levels I talked about earlier.

在商業方面，相關季度的平均貸款增加了 160 億美元，年化增長率為 12%。我們確實看到期末餘額略有下降，因為良好的貸款產出被出售 30 億美元貸款的銀團以及 40 億美元的負面外匯影響所抵消。我們顯然採取了資產負債表優化活動，這有助於我們的 RWA 討論 - 幫助 [這些] RWA 並導致我之前談到的資本水平。

We have provided an update in the appendix as to the credit transformation of our loan portfolio and a few other consumer credit slides that help illustrate the quality of our portfolio under years of responsible growth. We update those slides again this quarter to show you them and you can find in an appendix, and I recommend them to you.

我們在附錄中提供了關於我們貸款組合的信貸轉型的更新，以及其他一些消費信貸幻燈片，這些幻燈片有助於說明我們在多年負責任的增長下的投資組合的質量。我們在本季度再次更新這些幻燈片以向您展示它們，您可以在附錄中找到它們，我向您推薦它們。

So in summary, client activity remains good. NII has improved quickly and a customer's resilience and health remains strong. We've also managed our expenses very well. We drove operating leverage. The team managed the balance sheet well and improved capital either increased our dividend and bought back a modest amount of shares. We call that responsible growth.

所以總而言之，客戶活動仍然很好。 NII 迅速改善，客戶的複原力和健康狀況依然強勁。我們也很好地管理了我們的開支。我們提高了經營槓桿。該團隊很好地管理了資產負債表並改善了資本，要么增加了我們的股息，要么回購了少量的股票。我們稱之為負責任的增長。

With that, I'll turn it over to Alastair.

有了這個，我會把它交給阿拉斯泰爾。

Thank you, Brian. And I'll start by adding a little more detail on the income statement and refer you to Slide 6 highlights. You can see here revenue of $24.5 billion grew 8% with NII improving 24% year-over-year, while our fees declined to 8%. And I'll cover the NII improvement in just a moment. On noninterest income, the volatility and the levels of market activity drove a year-over-year decline in investment banking and asset management fees, while sales and trading benefited from investments made in the business and the volatile market conditions.

謝謝你，布賴恩。我將首先在損益表上添加更多細節，然後請您參考幻燈片 6 的亮點。您可以在這裡看到 245 億美元的收入增長了 8%，NII 同比增長 24%，而我們的費用下降到 8%。稍後我將介紹 NII 的改進。在非利息收入方面，波動性和市場活動水平推動投資銀行和資產管理費用同比下降，而銷售和交易受益於對業務的投資和動蕩的市場條件。

Additionally, service charges moved lower for 2 reasons. First, in consumer, we completed the sweeping changes around insufficient funds and overdraft in June marking a 90% reduction from June of 2021. Second, our corporate service charges declined as earned credit rates increased for clients and that overwhelmed organic growth in the gross fees associated with treasury management services performed for our clients.

此外，服務費下降有兩個原因。首先，在消費者方面，我們在 6 月完成了圍繞資金不足和透支的全面變革，比 2021 年 6 月減少了 90%。其次，我們的企業服務費下降，因為客戶賺取的信用率增加，壓倒了總費用的有機增長與為我們的客戶提供的資金管理服務相關。

Expenses this quarter were $15.3 billion, and they included the settlement of our last large remaining legacy monoline insurance litigation. As you likely saw on October 7, we filed the 8-K announcing a settlement that resolved all of the outstanding litigation with Ambac, and that dates all the way back to the 2008 financial crisis.

本季度的費用為 153 億美元，其中包括我們最後一項剩餘的大型遺留單一保險訴訟的和解。正如您可能在 10 月 7 日看到的那樣，我們提交了 8-K，宣布達成和解，解決了與 Ambac 的所有未決訴訟，這可以追溯到 2008 年金融危機。

We recorded $354 million in litigation expense this quarter above previous accruals for payment of the settlement. And without that litigation cost, our expense would have been just below the $15 billion mark.

我們在本季度記錄了 3.54 億美元的訴訟費用，高於之前支付和解費用的應計費用。如果沒有訴訟費用，我們的費用將略低於 150 億美元。

Okay. Let's move to the balance sheet and we'll look at Slide 7, where you can see during the quarter, the balance sheet declined $38 billion to $3.07 trillion, driven by a $46 billion decline in deposits and coupled with a $53 billion decline in securities.

好的。讓我們來看一下資產負債表，我們將看看幻燈片 7，您可以在該幻燈片中看到，在存款減少 460 億美元以及證券減少 530 億美元的推動下，資產負債表在本季度減少了 380 億美元至 3.07 萬億美元.

Our average liquidity portfolio declined in the quarter reflecting the decrease in deposits and security levels. At $941 billion, our liquidity still remains $365 billion above pre-pandemic levels, just to give you an idea of just how much our liquidity has increased. Shareholders' equity was stable with the second quarter at $270 billion as earnings were offset by capital distributed to shareholders and the change in AOCI from rate moves.

我們的平均流動性投資組合在本季度有所下降，反映了存款和安全水平的下降。我們的流動性為 9410 億美元，仍比大流行前水平高出 3650 億美元，只是為了讓您了解我們的流動性增加了多少。股東權益穩定，第二季度為 2700 億美元，因為收益被分配給股東的資本和利率變動導致的 AOCI 變化所抵消。

We paid out $1.8 billion in common dividends. We bought back $450 million in gross share repurchases, and that covered our employee issuances in the quarter, leaving no dilutive impact for shareholders. AOCI declined $4.4 billion as a result of the increase in loan rates, and we saw the impact primarily in 2 ways.

我們支付了 18 億美元的普通股息。我們回購了 4.5 億美元的股票回購總額，這涵蓋了我們在本季度的員工發行，不會對股東產生攤薄影響。由於貸款利率上升，AOCI 下降了 44 億美元，我們主要從兩個方面看到了影響。

First, we had a reduction from a change in the value of our AFS debt securities. That was $1.1 billion, and that impacted CET1. Second, rates also drove a $3.7 billion decline in AOCI from derivatives, and that does not impact CET1 that reflects cash flow hedges mostly put in place last year against some of our variable rate loans, and that protected us against CET1.

首先，我們因 AFS 債務證券價值的變化而減少。那是 11 億美元，這影響了 CET1。其次，利率還推動衍生品的 AOCI 下降 37 億美元，這不會影響 CET1，這反映了去年主要針對我們的一些浮動利率貸款實施的現金流對沖，並保護我們免受 CET1 的影響。

With regard to regulatory capital, our supplemental leverage ratio increased to 5.8% versus our minimum requirement of 5%, which still leaves plenty of capacity for balance sheet growth and our TLAC ratio remains comfortably above our requirements.

在監管資本方面，我們的補充槓桿率從我們的最低要求 5% 增加到 5.8%，這仍然為資產負債表的增長留下了充足的空間，我們的 TLAC 比率仍然高於我們的要求。

Okay. Let's go to CET1 waterfall on Slide 8, and we can talk about that. As you'll recall back in -- last quarter, we talked about our June CCAR results, where our stress capital buffer increased from 2.5% to 3.4%. And that increased our overall CET1 ratio minimum requirement from $9.5 to $10.4 million as of the beginning of the fourth quarter.

好的。讓我們去幻燈片 8 上的 CET1 瀑布，我們可以討論一下。您會回想起上個季度，我們談到了 6 月份的 CCAR 業績，我們的壓力資本緩衝從 2.5% 增加到 3.4%。截至第四季度初，這將我們的整體 CET1 比率最低要求從 9.5 美元提高到 1040 萬美元。

Our capital levels today remains strong with $176 billion of CET1 and through the good work of our teams, we improved our CET1 ratio by 49 basis points compared to June 30, taking us to 11%. That leaves us well above our new 10.4% minimum requirement. So we'll walk through the drivers this quarter.

我們今天的資本水平保持強勁，擁有 1760 億美元的 CET1，通過我們團隊的出色工作，與 6 月 30 日相比，我們的 CET1 比率提高了 49 個基點，達到 11%。這使我們遠遠高於我們新的 10.4% 的最低要求。因此，我們將在本季度介紹驅動程序。

First, it's $6.6 billion of earners net of preferred dividends and that generated 40 basis points of capital. And then also importantly, through optimization of the balance sheet, we managed our RWA balances down and that added 26 basis points more of capital ratio improvement. Dividends used 11 basis points of capital.

首先，扣除優先股股息的收入為 66 億美元，產生了 40 個基點的資本。然後同樣重要的是，通過優化資產負債表，我們降低了風險加權資產餘額，從而使資本比率提高了 26 個基點。股息使用了 11 個基點的資本。

And this quarter, the movement in treasury and mortgage-backed securities rates caused the fair value of our AFS debt securities to decrease, and that lowered our CET1 ratio by 7 basis points. We remain well positioned for the rate movement because of the hedge of a large portion of this portfolio continuing to protect us from AOCI movements while benefiting NII since swap to floating.

本季度，國債和抵押貸款支持證券利率的變動導致我們的 AFS 債務證券的公允價值下降，這使我們的 CET1 比率降低了 7 個基點。我們仍然為利率變動做好準備，因為該投資組合的大部分對沖繼續保護我們免受 AOCI 變動的影響，同時使 NII 自掉期至浮動後受益。

So we feel like our teams rose to the challenge well this quarter in terms of increased capital requirements.

因此，我們覺得我們的團隊在本季度在增加資本要求方面很好地應對了挑戰。

On Slide 9, we've laid out average loans and looking at those loans and providing a bit more detail on a year-over-year basis, you can see 12% average growth as commercial loans grew 17% and consumer loans grew 7%, within consumer credit card grew 12%.

在幻燈片 9 上，我們列出了平均貸款並查看了這些貸款並提供了更多的同比細節，您可以看到平均增長 12%，商業貸款增長 17%，消費貸款增長 7% ，內消費信用卡增長12%。

Focusing on more near-term growth versus the second quarter of '22, our average total loans grew 8% on an annualized basis, led by 12% annualized commercial loan growth and 21% annualized credit card growth, while other consumer loans were relatively flat linked quarter.

與 22 年第二季度相比，我們的平均總貸款年化增長率為 8%，其中商業貸款年化增長率為 12%，信用卡年化增長率為 21%，而其他消費貸款則相對持平。鏈接季度。

This slower linked quarter growth included 2 notable impacts that Brian mentioned. We saw good commercial loan demand, and we also saw FX valuations adjustments as a result of the strong dollar and then some loan sales and syndications that lowered our RWAs. Partially offsetting some of the strong card growth in consumer loans, we sold about $1 billion of residential mortgage loans. Adjusting for the FX impact and loan sales loan growth from Q2 was closer to the industry's growth rate.

這一較慢的相關季度增長包括布賴恩提到的兩個顯著影響。我們看到良好的商業貸款需求，我們還看到由於美元走強以及一些貸款銷售和銀團降低我們的風險加權資產而導致的外匯估值調整。我們出售了大約 10 億美元的住宅抵押貸款，部分抵消了消費貸款中信用卡的強勁增長。調整第二季度的外匯影響和貸款銷售貸款增長更接近行業的增長率。

Let's focus now on deposits using Slide 10. And you can see there that our average deposits year-over-year are up 1% at $1.96 trillion. The noninterest-bearing deposits are down 3%, while the interest-bearing are up 4%.

現在讓我們關注使用幻燈片 10 的存款。您可以在那裡看到我們的平均存款同比增長 1%，達到 1.96 萬億美元。無息存款下降 3%，而有息存款則上升 4%。

So overall, we grew our deposits. And as you would expect in a rising rate environment, we've seen some shifts from noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing, and it's important to understand the makeup of these moves. In consumer, our total deposits are up 7% year-over-year. These are core and foundational elements of the customers' financial activities.

所以總的來說，我們增加了存款。正如您在利率上升的環境中所期望的那樣，我們已經看到了從無息到有息的一些轉變，了解這些舉措的構成非常重要。在消費者方面，我們的總存款同比增長 7%。這些是客戶財務活動的核心和基礎要素。

And we've seen growth in both noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing balances and we remain very disciplined on $1.1 trillion of total consumer deposits while Fed funds is now at 3.25%. So customers see the value in their total relationship with us through their personalized cloud engagement and our industry-leading digital capabilities and rewards.

我們看到無息和有息餘額都有增長，我們對 1.1 萬億美元的總消費者存款仍然非常謹慎，而聯邦基金目前為 3.25%。因此，客戶通過個性化的雲參與和我們行業領先的數字能力和獎勵，看到了他們與我們的整體關係的價值。

We expect that to continue. Do we expect deposit rates to increase? Yes, of course, and we will remain both disciplined and competitive, and that is built into our asset sensitivity. On a linked quarter basis, our consumer deposits moved lower by less than 1%. In Wealth Management, total deposits are flat year-over-year. And again, it's important to understand that as expected, these are the clients who generally have more excess liquidity and have historically saw higher rates, both in deposit accounts as well as movements outside of deposits where we offer alternatives for those clients.

我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。我們預計存款利率會上升嗎？是的，當然，我們將保持紀律性和競爭力，這是我們資產敏感性的基礎。在相關季度的基礎上，我們的消費者存款下降了不到 1%。在財富管理中，總存款同比持平。同樣，重要的是要了解，正如預期的那樣，這些客戶通常擁有更多的過剩流動性並且歷來看到更高的利率，無論是在存款賬戶中，還是在我們為這些客戶提供替代方案的存款之外的變動中。

While flat year-over-year. Within that, we saw a $12 billion decline in year-over-year average deposits on our brokerage platform with some shifts from sweeps to preferred deposits within the platform. Meanwhile, Merrill bank deposits and deposits with Private Bank have grown $12 billion. The higher-tiered preferred deposit products represent a little more than 20% of the mix of deposits and they're moving largely in line with short-term rates, while the other 80% or so deposit products are paying much lower rates.

雖然同比持平。其中，我們的經紀平台上的平均存款同比下降了 120 億美元，平台內的一些存款從掃頻轉向了優先存款。與此同時，美林銀行存款和私人銀行存款增加了 120 億美元。較高級別的優先存款產品佔存款組合的 20% 多一點，它們在很大程度上與短期利率保持一致，而其他 80% 左右的存款產品支付的利率要低得多。

On a linked quarter basis, we sell total GWIM deposits declined by 7%, further highlighting these trends. In Global Banking, we hold about $500 billion in customer deposits, and we saw a 7% year-over-year decline. In a rising rate environment, where excess balances can be more expensive, we typically see some runoff, particularly in high liquidity environments as clients both use cash for inventory build and begin to manage their cash for yield.

在關聯季度的基礎上，我們出售的 GWIM 存款總額下降了 7%，進一步凸顯了這些趨勢。在全球銀行業務中，我們持有約 5000 億美元的客戶存款，同比下降 7%。在利率上升的環境中，超額餘額可能更加昂貴，我們通常會看到一些徑流，尤其是在高流動性環境中，因為客戶既使用現金建立庫存，又開始管理現金以獲取收益。

And we've seen the mix of interest-bearing deposits moved from 30% a year ago to nearly 35%, and we're paying an increased rate on those interest-bearing deposits. Pricing is largely customer by customer based on the depth of relationship and many other factors. And again, we're not really seeing anything unexpected here. Betas at this point are still favorable to the last cycle.

我們已經看到有息存款的比例從一年前的 30% 上升到近 35%，我們正在為這些有息存款支付更高的利率。定價主要是基於關係深度和許多其他因素的客戶。再說一次，我們在這裡並沒有真正看到任何意想不到的東西。此時的貝塔仍然有利於上一個週期。

And as we would just note, relative to the last cycle, the Fed increases have been pretty rapid, and we'd expect to pay higher rates as we continue to move through this rate cycle. It's probably too early to say right now. If at the end of that cycle, the percentage of those rate pass-throughs will be similar to the last cycle.

正如我們剛剛注意到的那樣，相對於上一個週期，美聯儲的加息速度相當迅速，我們預計隨著我們繼續通過這個利率週期，我們將支付更高的利率。現在說可能還為時過早。如果在該週期結束時，那些通過率的百分比將與上一個週期相似。

Turning to Slide 11 and net interest income. On a GAAP non-FTE basis, NII in Q3 was $13.8 billion, and the FTE NII number is $13.9 million. Focusing on FTE, net interest income increased $2.7 billion from Q3 '21 or 24%, and that's driven by benefits from higher interest rates, including lower premium amortization and from loan growth. Versus the second quarter, NII is up $1.3 billion, driven largely by the same factors plus an additional day of interest in the quarter.

轉向幻燈片 11 和淨利息收入。按 GAAP 非 FTE 計算，第三季度的 NII 為 138 億美元，FTE NII 數字為 1390 萬美元。專注於 FTE，淨利息收入比 21 年第三季度增加了 27 億美元或 24%，這是由較高的利率帶來的好處所推動的，包括較低的保費攤銷和貸款增長。與第二季度相比，NII 增加了 13 億美元，主要受相同因素的推動，加上該季度增加了一天的利息。

Year-over-year now, average short-term interest rates have increased 200-plus basis points, driving up the interest earned on our variable rate assets while we've maintained discipline on our deposit pricing, and that has driven nearly $1 billion of improvement. Long-term interest rates on mortgages have increased even more than short-term rates, and that's improving fixed rate asset replacement and driving down refinancing of mortgage assets therefore, slowing the recognition of premium amortization recognized in our securities portfolio.

與去年同期相比，平均短期利率增加了 200 多個基點，推動了我們的浮動利率資產賺取的利息，同時我們保持了存款定價的紀律，這推動了近 10 億美元的改進。抵押貸款的長期利率上升幅度甚至超過了短期利率，這改善了固定利率資產置換並因此降低了抵押資產的再融資，減緩了我們證券組合中確認的溢價攤銷的確認。

Year-over-year, that premium amortization has improved $1 billion. And additionally, lower securities balances over the past 6 months modestly offset the benefits of year-over-year loan growth. The net interest yield was 2.06% and that improved 38 basis points from the third quarter of '21. And 20 basis points of that improvement occurred in the most recent quarter.

與去年同期相比，保費攤銷增加了 10 億美元。此外，過去 6 個月較低的證券餘額適度抵消了貸款同比增長帶來的好處。淨利息收益率為 2.06%，比 21 年第三季度提高了 38 個基點。最近一個季度出現了 20 個基點的改善。

And as you will note, excluding Global Markets activities, our net interest yield was 2.51% this quarter. Looking forward, as it relates to NII guidance, I'd like to make a couple of comments. And first, I need to make a couple of caveats. Our guidance is going to assume interest rates in the most recent forward curve and that they materialize that we see modest loan growth and modest deposit balance changes with market-based deposit pricing increasing baked in.

正如您將注意到的，不包括全球市場活動，我們本季度的淨利息收益率為 2.51%。展望未來，由於它與 NII 指導有關，我想發表一些評論。首先，我需要提出一些警告。我們的指引將假設利率在最近的遠期曲線中，並且它們實現了我們看到適度的貸款增長和適度的存款餘額變化以及基於市場的存款定價的增加。

With that said, we expect NII in Q4 to be at least $1.25 billion higher than Q3. So last quarter when we were together, we told you we expected to see consecutive NII increases of about $1 billion in Q3 and another $1 billion in Q4. And that would make a total of $2 billion in Q3 and Q4 given we just put up $1.3 billion in Q3 and that outperformance and refreshing our expectation for Q4 at $1.25 billion.

話雖如此，我們預計第四季度的 NII 至少比第三季度高出 12.5 億美元。所以上個季度我們在一起時，我們告訴過你，我們預計第三季度 NII 將連續增加約 10 億美元，第四季度再增加 10 億美元。鑑於我們剛剛在第三季度投入了 13 億美元，並且表現出色並刷新了我們對第四季度 12.5 億美元的預期，這將使第三季度和第四季度的總額達到 20 億美元。

We're now saying that aggregate quarterly improvement won't be the $2 billion we initially thought, it's increased to around $2.6 billion or more. Turning to asset sensitivity and focusing on a forward yield basis. At September 30, declined $0.7 billion to $4.2 billion of expected NII over the next 12 months, with now roughly 95% of the sensitivity driven by short rates. And on a spot basis, our sensitivity to 100 basis point instantaneous rate hike would be $5.3 billion.

我們現在說，季度總增長不會是我們最初認為的 20 億美元，而是增加到大約 26 億美元或更多。轉向資產敏感性並關注遠期收益率。截至 9 月 30 日，未來 12 個月的預期 NII 下降了 7 億美元至 42 億美元，目前大約 95% 的敏感性是由短期利率驅動的。在即期基礎上，我們對瞬時加息 100 個基點的敏感度為 53 億美元。

Okay. Let's turn to expense, and we'll use Slide 12 for the discussion. Third quarter expenses were $15.3 billion and were flat with the second quarter as litigation costs for our settlement in Q3 nearly offset the fines agreed to last quarter on a comparative basis. And it's nice to bring resolution to these matters. Without the costs associated with the resolutions in both periods, expenses would have been just less than $15 billion.

好的。讓我們轉向費用，我們將使用幻燈片 12 進行討論。第三季度費用為 153 億美元，與第二季度持平，因為我們在第三季度的和解訴訟費用幾乎抵消了上季度商定的罰款。很高興為這些問題帶來解決方案。如果沒有與兩個時期的決議相關的成本，費用將僅不到 150 億美元。

We continue to make steady investments in our people, technology, marketing and financial centers and what allows us to help pay for these investments of the operational process improvements we've talked about and the increased digital adoption rates by our customers and by our bankers. Our headcount this quarter increased by 3,500 and if we adjust for the release of our summer and turns our headcounts actually up by closer to 5,500.

我們將繼續對我們的人員、技術、營銷和金融中心進行穩定的投資，以及使我們能夠幫助支付我們已經談到的運營流程改進以及我們的客戶和銀行家提高數字化採用率的這些投資。我們本季度的員工人數增加了 3,500 人，如果我們針對夏季發布進行調整，我們的員工人數實際上增加了接近 5,500 人。

We welcomed 1,800 new full-time associates from college campuses around the world into our company this quarter and we hired another 3,800 net new people on top of that. That included just less than 3,000 across our various lines of business and another 1,000 in staff and support and technology positions to support those lines of business. And with all the great benefits and talented people already at this company and with our great brand, it highlights that Bank of America is a great place to work.

本季度，我們迎來了來自世界各地大學校園的 1,800 名新全職員工加入我們的公司，除此之外，我們還淨招聘了 3,800 名新員工。這包括我們各個業務線的不到 3,000 名員工以及支持這些業務線的另外 1,000 名員工、支持和技術職位。憑藉這家公司已經擁有的所有巨大福利和才華橫溢的人才以及我們偉大的品牌，它突顯了美國銀行是一個工作的好地方。

As we look forward, we'd expect our fourth quarter expenses will land our full year reported expense at approximately $61 billion. That obviously includes the cost noted for resolving in the second quarter and third quarter regulatory and litigation matters. So without that, our expenses are expected to be a little more than the $60 billion level we talked about earlier in the year.

正如我們所期待的那樣，我們預計第四季度的開支將使我們全年報告的開支達到約 610 億美元。這顯然包括解決第二季度和第三季度監管和訴訟問題的成本。因此，如果沒有這些，我們的支出預計將略高於我們今年早些時候談到的 600 億美元的水平。

And we're proud of our team's discipline around expense particularly in this inflationary environment, while at the same time, we're modestly increasing our level of investment in the company's future and our growth. Turning to asset quality on Slide 13, and I want to start by saying just as Brian did the asset quality of our customers remains very healthy.

我們為我們的團隊在費用方面的紀律感到自豪，特別是在這種通貨膨脹的環境中，同時，我們正在適度增加對公司未來和增長的投資水平。轉向幻燈片 13 上的資產質量，我想首先說就像布賴恩所做的那樣，我們客戶的資產質量仍然非常健康。

The net charge-offs of $520 million declined $51 million from the second quarter, that decline was driven by prior period charge-offs associated with the sale of some noncore mortgage loans we discussed last quarter. Absent those losses, net charge-offs were relatively stable with the prior period.

與第二季度相比，5.2 億美元的淨沖銷減少了 5100 萬美元，這一下降是由上一季度我們討論的與出售一些非核心抵押貸款相關的前期沖銷推動的。在沒有這些損失的情況下，淨沖銷與上一時期相比相對穩定。

Provision expense was $898 million in the third quarter, and that was $375 million higher than the second quarter. And we built $378 million of reserve in the period compared to a modest release in Q2. The reserve build in the quarter primarily reflects good credit card loan growth and a dampened macroeconomic outlook.

第三季度撥備費用為 8.98 億美元，比第二季度高出 3.75 億美元。與第二季度的適度釋放相比，我們在此期間建立了 3.78 億美元的儲備。本季度的準備金增加主要反映了良好的信用卡貸款增長和宏觀經濟前景疲軟。

Even as we build our resources for the future, this quarter, we saw many of our asset quality metrics continued to show modest improvement as NPLs and reservable criticized both declined from Q2, and you can see that in the supplement.

即使在我們為未來建立資源的同時，本季度我們看到我們的許多資產質量指標繼續顯示出適度的改善，因為不良貸款和可保留的批評都比第二季度有所下降，您可以在補充文件中看到這一點。

On Slide 14, we highlight the credit quality metrics for both our consumer and commercial portfolios. And there's only one point I want to make, looking at this slide and that is delinquencies because our consumer delinquencies remain well below pre-pandemic levels. And as Brian noted earlier, we're watching closely the early-stage card delinquencies as they begin to increase modestly. Lastly, the recent hurricane Ian impacted some areas where we have strong market shares for many of our businesses, and our teams have spent the past days assessing the damages and insurance coverage down to the loan level.

在幻燈片 14 中，我們強調了我們的消費者和商業投資組合的信用質量指標。看這張幻燈片，我只想說一點，那就是拖欠，因為我們的消費者拖欠率仍遠低於大流行前的水平。正如布賴恩之前指出的那樣，我們正在密切關注早期信用卡拖欠的情況，因為它們開始適度增加。最後，最近的颶風伊恩影響了我們在許多業務中擁有強大市場份額的一些領域，我們的團隊過去幾天一直在評估損失和保險範圍，直至貸款水平。

And we've already incorporated that analysis into our reserves for the quarter. We compared our analysis to other large storms in recent years like Sandy, Harvey and Irma where we incurred just a small amount of financial losses.

我們已經將該分析納入本季度的儲備中。我們將我們的分析與近年來的其他大型風暴（如桑迪、哈維和艾爾瑪）進行了比較，在這些風暴中，我們只遭受了少量的經濟損失。

Turning to the business segments. Let's start with Consumer Banking on Slide 15. And Brian shared earlier, we've got organic growth across the checking accounts card accounts and investments picking up this quarter, not necessarily because of anything we're doing differently in the past 90 days, but as a result of many years of retooling and continuously investing in the business.

轉向業務部門。讓我們從幻燈片 15 上的消費者銀行業務開始。Brian 早些時候分享過，我們在本季度的活期存款卡賬戶和投資方面實現了有機增長，這不一定是因為我們在過去 90 天內所做的任何不同的事情，而是由於多年的重組和對業務的不斷投資。

We have the leading retail deposit market share. We have leadership positions among all of the important products. We're the leading digital bank with tremendous convenient capabilities for consumer and small business clients. We've got a leading online consumer investment platform and the best small business platform offering for our clients. So as a result, customer satisfaction is now at all-time highs, and that is helping us to drive strong financial results.

我們擁有領先的零售存款市場份額。我們在所有重要產品中都處於領先地位。我們是領先的數字銀行，為消費者和小型企業客戶提供極大的便利功能。我們擁有領先的在線消費者投資平台和為我們的客戶提供的最佳小型企業平台。因此，客戶滿意度現在處於歷史最高水平，這有助於我們推動強勁的財務業績。

The Consumer Bank earned $3.1 billion on good organic growth and delivered its sixth consecutive quarter of operating leverage while we continued heavy investments for the future. The impact of strong year-over-year revenue growth of 12% was partially offset by an increase in provision expense.

消費者銀行憑藉良好的有機增長賺取了 31 億美元，並連續第六個季度實現了經營槓桿，同時我們繼續為未來進行大量投資。收入同比強勁增長 12% 的影響被撥備費用的增加部分抵消。

And the provision increase reflected reserve builds this period, mostly for card growth versus a reserve release in the third quarter of '21, our net charge-offs remain low and stable. While reported earnings were only modestly up year-over-year. Pretax, pre-provision income grew 12% year-over-year which highlights the earnings improvement coming through without the impact of the reserve actions.

撥備增加反映了這一時期的準備金增加，主要用於卡增長，而不是 21 年第三季度的準備金釋放，我們的淨沖銷仍然很低且穩定。雖然報告的收益同比僅小幅增長。稅前，撥備前收入同比增長 12%，這突顯了在沒有準備金行動影響的情況下實現了盈利改善。

Card revenue was solid and increased modestly year-over-year as spending benefits were mostly offset by higher rewards costs. Service charges were down $338 million year-over-year as our insufficient funds and overdraft policy changes were in full effect now by the end of Q2. And because of the scale of the business and the diverse revenue, we fully absorbed that revenue impact and are now benefiting from the benefits of overall customer satisfaction, lower attrition in our client base and lower cost associated with fewer customer complaint calls associated with less nuisance fees.

由於支出收益大部分被較高的獎勵成本所抵消，卡收入穩健且同比溫和增長。由於我們的資金不足和透支政策變化到第二季度末已全面生效，服務費同比下降了 3.38 億美元。由於業務規模和收入多樣化，我們完全吸收了收入影響，現在受益於整體客戶滿意度、客戶群流失率降低以及與減少滋擾相關的客戶投訴電話減少相關的成本降低費用。

Expense increased 11% from business investments for growth, including people, digital and marketing along with costs related to opening the business to fuller capacity. Much of the company's increased salary and wage moves in the quarter impact Consumer Banking the most. We also continued our investment in financial centers, opening another 16 in the quarter while we renovated nearly 200 more. Both digital banking and operational process improvements are helping to pay for those investments.

用於增長的業務投資的費用增加了 11%，包括人員、數字和營銷，以及與將業務開放到更充分的產能相關的成本。該公司在本季度增加的大部分工資和工資變動對個人銀行業務的影響最大。我們還繼續對金融中心進行投資，在本季度又開設了 16 個，同時我們又翻新了近 200 個。數字銀行和運營流程的改進都有助於支付這些投資。

And as revenue grew, we've improved the efficiency ratio to 51%.

隨著收入的增長，我們將效率比提高到 51%。

Moving to Slide 16. Wealth Management produced strong results, earning $1.2 billion, and that's a particularly strong result given both equity and bond market levels. If they remain unchanged for the rest of the year, this would be only the first time since 1976, that both equity and bond markets were down for the year.

轉到幻燈片 16。財富管理產生了強勁的業績，賺取了 12 億美元，考慮到股票和債券市場水平，這是一個特別強勁的結果。如果它們在今年剩餘時間內保持不變，這將是自 1976 年以來股票和債券市場今年以來的首次下跌。

Now the volatility and generally lower market levels have put pressure on revenue in this business. And what's helping to differentiate Merrill and the Private Bank right now is a strong banking business. In this case to the tune of $339 billion of deposits and $224 billion of loans. So while many of our brokerage peers faced declines in revenue and margin, we've seen year-over-year revenue growth of 2% and and a margin of 29%, driving the sixth straight quarter of operating leverage.

現在，波動性和普遍較低的市場水平對該業務的收入構成壓力。現在有助於區分美林和私人銀行的是強大的銀行業務。在這種情況下，有 3390 億美元的存款和 2240 億美元的貸款。因此，儘管我們的許多經紀同行面臨收入和利潤率下降，但我們看到收入同比增長 2%，利潤率為 29%，連續第六個季度推動運營槓桿。

And we saw enough revenue growth from banking products in Q3 that more than offset declines in assets under management and brokerage fees. Our talented group of financial advisers, coupled with our powerful digital capabilities, allowed modern Merrill to gain 5,200 net new households and the Private Bank gained 550 more in the quarter, both up nicely from net household generation in 2021.

我們看到第三季度銀行產品的收入增長足以抵消管理資產和經紀費用的下降。我們才華橫溢的財務顧問團隊，加上我們強大的數字能力，使現代美林淨增 5,200 個新家庭，私人銀行在本季度增加了 550 個，與 2021 年的淨家庭生成相比，這兩個數字都大大增加。

We added $24 billion of loans since Q3 of '21, growing 12% and this marked our 50th consecutive quarter of average loans growth in the business, consistent and sustained performance. Assets under management flows were $4 billion in the quarter and $42 billion since this time last year. Expenses increased 2%, driven by continued client-facing hiring and higher other employee-related costs as our advisers are increasing their in-person engagement with clients, and that's partially offset by lower revenue-related incentives.

自 21 年第三季度以來，我們增加了 240 億美元的貸款，增長了 12%，這標誌著我們的業務平均貸款連續第 50 個季度增長，業績保持一致和持續。本季度管理資產流動為 40 億美元，自去年同期以來為 420 億美元。由於我們的顧問正在增加與客戶的面對面接觸，因此繼續面向客戶的招聘以及其他與員工相關的成本增加導致費用增加了 2%，而這部分被收入相關激勵措施的減少所抵消。

On Slide 17, you'll see our Global Banking results, where we earned $2 billion in Q3 on strong revenue growth as higher NII and more than offset lower noninterest income. Earnings were down year-over-year, driven in large part by the absence of a prior period reserve release. Our 7% revenue growth is quite healthy given the more than 40% decline in investment banking fees, coupled with lower leasing revenue.

在幻燈片 17 上，您將看到我們的全球銀行業務業績，我們在第三季度獲得了 20 億美元的收入，原因是收入增長強勁，因為 NII 較高且足以抵消較低的非利息收入。收益同比下降，這在很大程度上是由於缺乏前期準備金釋放。鑑於投資銀行費用下降 40% 以上，加上租賃收入下降，我們 7% 的收入增長相當健康。

While the company's overall investment banking fees declined $1 billion year-over-year in a continued tough market, investment banking fees did improve modestly from Q2 and and the teams did a nice job of holding on to our #3 ranking in overall fees in a tough environment. Otherwise, in fees, we saw a decline in corporate service charges as enterprise credit rates rose with increased rates, and that outpaced the growth in gross treasury service fees generated from new and existing clients.

儘管該公司的整體投資銀行費用在持續艱難的市場中同比下降了 10 億美元，但投資銀行費用確實比第二季度有所改善，並且團隊在保持我們在整體費用中排名第三的表現方面做得很好惡劣的環境。否則，在費用方面，我們看到企業服務費下降，因為企業信貸利率隨利率上升而上升，並且超過了新客戶和現有客戶產生的總資金服務費的增長。

I'd also remind you the GTS benefits greatly from the NII off of deposits that more than offsets this. So our year-over-year total GTS revenue was up 44%. We also had lower leasing related revenue comparatively. The provision expense increase reflected a reserve build of $144 million in Q3 '22 compared to a $789 million release in the year ago period.

我還要提醒您，GTS 從 NII 的存款中受益匪淺，遠遠超過了這一點。因此，我們的 GTS 總收入同比增長了 44%。我們的租賃相關收入也相對較低。撥備費用增加反映了 22 年第三季度的儲備金增加了 1.44 億美元，而去年同期為 7.89 億美元。

And with regard to expenses, they increased 5% year-over-year, driven by continued investments in the business. For example, in Commercial Banking, our strategic hiring over the years has just continued to increase our client and prospect calling efforts.

在費用方面，由於對業務的持續投資，它們同比增長了 5%。例如，在商業銀行業務中，我們多年來的戰略招聘不斷增加我們的客戶和潛在客戶呼叫工作。

Switching to Global Markets on Slide 18. And as we usually do, we'll talk about segment results, excluding DVA. Inflation, continued geopolitical tensions and the changing monetary policies of central banks around the world continue to drive volatility in both the bond and equity markets. As a result, it's another quarter that favored macro trading while credit trading businesses faced the continued challenging market environment with wider spreads and recession concerns.

在幻燈片 18 上切換到全球市場。像往常一樣，我們將討論細分結果，不包括 DVA。通貨膨脹、持續的地緣政治緊張局勢以及世界各國央行不斷變化的貨幣政策繼續推動債券和股票市場的波動。因此，這是另一個有利於宏觀交易的季度，而信貸交易業務面臨著持續具有挑戰性的市場環境，利差擴大和衰退擔憂。

So the third quarter net income of $1.1 billion reflects a good quarter of sales and trading revenue. Focusing on year-over-year. Sales & Trading contributed $4.1 billion to revenue, improving 13%. FICC improved 27% while equities declined 4%. The FICC improvement was primarily driven by growth in our macro products, while our credit traded products were down. And we've been investing heavily over the past year in several macro businesses that we identified as opportunities for us, and we were rewarded this quarter.

因此，第三季度 11 億美元的淨收入反映了一個良好的季度銷售和交易收入。專注於年復一年。銷售和貿易為收入貢獻了 41 億美元，增長了 13%。 FICC 上漲 27%，而股票下跌 4%。 FICC 的改善主要是由我們的宏觀產品增長推動的，而我們的信用交易產品則下降。在過去的一年裡，我們一直在對我們認為對我們來說是機會的幾項宏觀業務進行大量投資，我們在本季度獲得了回報。

The decline in equities was driven by lower client activity in Asia and weaker performance in cash, partially offset by good performance in derivatives where we saw increased client activity. Year-over-year expense declined reflecting the absence of costs associated with the realignment of liquidating business activity that we took in the fourth quarter of '21, and the business generated a 10% return in the third quarter.

股市下跌是由於亞洲客戶活動減少和現金表現疲弱，部分被衍生品的良好表現所抵消，我們看到客戶活動增加。與去年同期相比，費用有所下降，這反映了我們在 21 年第四季度進行的清算業務活動的調整沒有相關的成本，並且該業務在第三季度產生了 10% 的回報。

Finally, on Slide 19, we show all other, which reported a loss of $281 million, declining from the year ago period, driven by the litigation settlement that I noted earlier and higher tax expense. On income tax expense, I just want to mention one thing that made our tax rate a little higher this quarter, and that is with the recent passage of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, among other things that incorporated, there was a change that allowed solar energy investments to elect production tax credits versus upfront investment tax credits.

最後，在幻燈片 19 上，我們展示了所有其他公司，報告虧損 2.81 億美元，較去年同期有所下降，原因是我之前提到的訴訟和解以及更高的稅收支出。關於所得稅費用，我只想提一件事，使我們的稅率在本季度略高，那就是最近通過了 2022 年《減少通貨膨脹法案》，除此之外，還有一項變化允許太陽能投資選擇生產稅收抵免與前期投資稅收抵免。

And those production tax credits have the potential to earn more credits over the expected life of the production facility. So as a result, our third quarter tax expense is approximately $150 million higher due to the net reversal of tax credits accrued for 2022 solar deals taken in the first half of 2022 that were recognized under initial investment tax credits at the time and we were placed with production tax credits.

這些生產稅收抵免有可能在生產設施的預期壽命內獲得更多抵免。因此，由於 2022 年上半年進行的 2022 年太陽能交易產生的稅收抵免淨逆轉，我們第三季度的稅收支出增加了約 1.5 億美元，這些交易在當時被確認為初始投資稅收抵免，我們被安置與生產稅收抵免。

So a little impact this quarter that net benefit to the shareholder over time. This drove the effective tax rate a little higher this quarter to more than 14% and still obviously benefiting from our ESG investment tax credits. And excluding the impact of ESG tax credits, tax rate would have been approximately 24%.

因此，隨著時間的推移，本季度對股東的淨收益產生了一點影響。這推動本季度的有效稅率略高至 14% 以上，並且仍然明顯受益於我們的 ESG 投資稅收抵免。排除 ESG 稅收抵免的影響，稅率約為 24%。

Given the change noted for solar investments, we expect the fourth quarter tax rate to be similar to the third quarter tax rate and will examine the further effects of these changes and how they impact full year 2023 and report on that next quarter. And with that, I'm going to stop there and open up for Q&A.

鑑於太陽能投資的變化，我們預計第四季度的稅率將與第三季度的稅率相似，並將研究這些變化的進一步影響以及它們如何影響 2023 年全年，並在下一季度報告。有了這個，我將停在那裡並打開問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

（操作員說明）我們今天來自 Seaport Global 的 Jim Mitchell 的第一個問題。

Maybe just on NII. I think there's a lot of uncertainty around deposit behavior, betas, what the catch-up rate could be with deposit pricing but you guys indicated that you do -- you're still pretty asset sensitive. So how do you think about the trajectory of NII next year? Can it kind of keep growing from sort of the Q4 level through next year, assuming forward curve is realized, sorry?

也許只是在 NII 上。我認為存款行為、貝塔係數、存款定價的追趕率可能存在很多不確定性，但你們表示你們這樣做了——你們仍然對資產非常敏感。那麼您如何看待明年 NII 的發展軌跡？假設實現了遠期曲線，它能否從第四季度的水平一直增長到明年，對不起？

Yes. Yes. So the short answer is yes, we believe so. And we believe that really for 3 reasons. The first one is we are still expecting future rate hikes and there's going to be some lag to their impact.

是的。是的。所以簡短的回答是肯定的，我們相信。我們相信這真的有 3 個原因。第一個是我們仍然期待未來的加息，並且它們的影響會有一些滯後。

So you'll start to feel some of that in Q1, for example, but the late hikes in this quarter. Second, we're anticipating loans growth is still pretty good at this stage. So we're anticipating that we'll keep growing on the loan side. And then third, we've got an opportunity to restrike our balance sheet at higher rates with every opportunity now as things come off of our existing securities portfolio.

因此，例如，您將在第一季度開始感受到其中的一些，但在本季度後期加息。其次，我們預計現階段貸款增長仍然相當不錯。因此，我們預計我們將在貸款方面繼續增長。第三，我們有機會以更高的利率重新調整我們的資產負債表，因為我們現有的證券投資組合現在有了每一個機會。

So look, we've got our assumptions in there to be competitive on deposit pricing in each of the various segments. But yes, we believe we'll grow NII next year.

所以看，我們已經假設在每個細分市場的存款定價方面具有競爭力。但是，是的，我們相信明年我們會發展 NII。

On 4Q run rates.

關於 4Q 運行率。

Yes. Correct.

是的。正確的。

Okay. And then maybe as a follow-up, you guys have done a pretty great job on hedging AOCI risk and the AFS book. My understanding is that the benefit of those are sort of delayed start swaps. Is there a material benefit coming from those swaps in the fourth quarter and beyond we think about that?

好的。然後也許作為後續行動，你們在對沖 AOCI 風險和 AFS 書籍方面做得非常出色。我的理解是，這些的好處是延遲開始交換。第四季度及以後的這些掉期是否會帶來物質利益？

Just the way our own ALM projected over the course next couple years, we had some forward starting swaps. Those are going to pay us floating in the fourth quarter, and that's a contributor to the NII growth in the fourth quarter but I think we should assume a little bit third quarter, most all in the fourth quarter, and that's probably it.

就像我們自己的 ALM 在未來幾年的課程中預測的那樣，我們進行了一些前瞻性的首發互換。這些將使我們在第四季度浮動，這是第四季度 NII 增長的一個貢獻者，但我認為我們應該假設第三季度，大部分都在第四季度，可能就是這樣。

We'll go next to Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們將與瑞銀一起前往 Erika Najarian。

I wanted to ask a question about expenses. I think part of a bearish thesis on the stock is that bearish investors expect some sort of expense catch up relative to how your closest peer -- one of your closest peers is budgeting expenses for not just this year but next year. Heard you loud and clear on the $61 billion plus the litigation settlement for full year 2022.

我想問一個關於費用的問題。我認為看跌股票的部分觀點是，看跌的投資者預計某種費用會趕上與你最接近的同行相比——你最接近的同行之一不僅在今年而且在明年預算開支。聽到您大聲而清晰地了解 610 億美元以及 2022 年全年的訴訟和解。

But as we think about coming years and think about the investments that you've made, you've highlighted, the headcount additions in the third quarter, will the expectation of 1% to 2% expense growth still hold as we look forward? Or these inflation and investments change that range upward.

但是，當我們考慮未來幾年並考慮您所做的投資時，您已經強調，第三季度增加的員工人數，我們期待的 1% 到 2% 的費用增長的預期是否仍然存在？或者這些通貨膨脹和投資的變化範圍是向上的。

So Erika, we continue to invest heavily along multiple dimensions, people, technology, restructuring all the physical plant marketing. And so -- but yes, through the core operational excellence discipline this company has and has shown, as I said earlier, 7 years later, we have the same number of people.

所以 Erika，我們繼續在多個維度、人員、技術上進行大量投資，重組所有的實體工廠營銷。所以——但是是的，通過這家公司已經並且已經證明的核心卓越運營紀律，正如我之前所說，7 年後，我們擁有相同數量的人員。

The company is a lot bigger than it was in 2015. And so we continue to reposition money from things we can eliminate the work by the engineering and work and the technology investments that we make enabling the customer uses that technology and plow back into the production side of the company. And so we don't -- I think if you think about this year's third quarter '22 versus third quarter '21, if you take it out the litigation, there's about $600 million increase in expenses year-over-year, $100 million of that is marketing.

該公司比 2015 年要大得多。因此，我們繼續將資金從我們可以通過工程和工作以及我們所做的技術投資消除的工作中重新定位，使客戶能夠使用該技術並重新投入生產公司的一邊。所以我們不 - 我認為如果你考慮一下今年的 22 年第三季度與 21 年第三季度，如果你把它排除在訴訟之外，費用同比增長約 6 億美元，1 億美元那就是營銷。

Another chunk is another couple of hundred million dollars of technology. This is quarterly, not annually, but quarterly numbers. And then on top of that, the amount of physical plant change in that time is huge, not only in our branches, but all over our company. So we feel strong. We continue to increase investments, technology will go up 15% this year versus being '23 versus '20 and those expense numbers we're giving you, but we pay for it by not investing and hoping something happens, we expect the things to rectify in near terms and bring forward the fruit and drive the expense efficiencies and effectiveness.

另一塊是另外幾億美元的技術。這是每季度的數字，不是每年，而是每季度的數字。最重要的是，那段時間的實際工廠變化量是巨大的，不僅在我們的分支機構，而且在我們公司的所有地方。所以我們感覺很強大。我們繼續增加投資，今年的技術將比 '23 和 '20 增長 15% 以及我們給你的那些費用數字，但我們通過不投資和希望發生的事情來支付它，我們希望事情會得到糾正在短期內，取得成果並推動費用效率和有效性。

And that's how we can take the managers in that time period I gave you the headcount (inaudible) came down 10,000 people in that period of time. We invested all in frontline people to help serve our clients.

這就是我們如何在我給你的那個時間段內採取經理的方式（聽不清）在那段時間裡減少了 10,000 人。我們投資於一線人員，以幫助為我們的客戶服務。

Got it. And my second question is on more significant buyback activity, Brian. I think that the CET1 build is certainly coming faster than I think the Street expected. And I'm wondering, do we need to see Bank of America get to that 11.4% before heavier buyback activity? Or do you think you could manage the heavier buyback activity as you build to that 11.4% CET1 by January 1, 2024?

知道了。我的第二個問題是關於更重要的回購活動，布賴恩。我認為 CET1 的構建速度肯定比我認為華爾街預期的要快。我想知道，在更大規模的回購活動之前，我們是否需要看到美國銀行達到 11.4% 的水平？或者您認為您可以在 2024 年 1 月 1 日之前達到 11.4% CET1 的目標時管理更大規模的回購活動？

So we bought back shares this quarter and still grew the capital. Our job is to drive our company to serve our customers in that first order of business for capital is always help the growth in the balance sheet, especially on the lending and market side.

所以我們本季度回購了股票，仍然增加了資本。我們的工作是推動我們的公司為我們的客戶服務，因為資本的首要業務總是有助於資產負債表的增長，特別是在貸款和市場方面。

And so you should expect that buybacks will continue to increase. But remember, we are now sitting above what we are supposed to be sitting at on 1/1/2024. And so next year is already here. So obviously, the trade between building the buffer up a little bit more, as you said, from where we are now to 30 basis points over the requirement is a little bit different.

因此，您應該預期回購將繼續增加。但請記住，我們現在坐在我們應該坐在 2024 年 1 月 1 日的位置之上。所以明年已經到了。顯然，正如您所說，從我們現在的水平到超出要求的 30 個基點之間的交易有點不同。

We already exceed the requirements. So we'll put a little bit towards the buffer -- we'll support the organic growth a little bit towards a buffer and the use the rest to send back to you guys.

我們已經超出了要求。因此，我們將向緩衝區投入一點——我們將稍微支持向緩衝區的有機增長，並使用其餘部分發回給你們。

We'll go next to Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

我們將與 Evercore ISI 一起前往 Glenn Schorr。

I'm curious, [half] (inaudible) your capital build was thanks to RWA mitigation. You mentioned no loss days in the quarter despite all this market volatility. So I think mentioned some loan sales. I don't know if that has to do some of the levered loans working off book. So I wonder if you could talk about RWA mitigation going forward and including that, what's left in delivered loan book to distribute.

我很好奇，[一半]（聽不清）您的資本積累歸功於 RWA 緩解。您提到儘管市場如此波動，但本季度沒有虧損天數。所以我認為提到了一些貸款銷售。我不知道這是否需要一些槓桿貸款在賬外工作。因此，我想知道您是否可以談論未來的 RWA 緩解措施，包括交付的貸款簿中剩下的要分發的內容。

So there's a couple of things that are going on there. I don't want to confuse them. Let me first talk about the leverage financing thing that we just marked through our numbers. It's in the numbers. We pushed it through, do it every week. So that's included.

所以那裡發生了一些事情。我不想混淆他們。首先讓我談談我們剛剛通過數字標記的槓桿融資。它在數字中。我們推動了它，每週都做。所以包括在內。

When you look at those global markets or investment banking results, they include anything we're doing in investment banking. I don't think that's what Brian was referring to. What Brian was referring to is the RWA optimization that we're doing as a company to make sure that we're in a great place to serve our customers and to be in a position to have the flexibility for buybacks in the future.

當您查看這些全球市場或投資銀行業績時，它們包括我們在投資銀行中所做的任何事情。我不認為這是布賴恩所指的。 Brian 所指的是我們作為一家公司正在做的 RWA 優化，以確保我們處於為客戶服務的好地方，並能夠在未來靈活地進行回購。

So a couple of things that we did there. We did sell some loans. You saw that in prior quarters in all other. You can see some of the legacy loans were able to sell in prior quarters. This quarter, we sold $1 billion of loans in consumer and wealth and maybe $1 billion in Global Banking.

所以我們在那裡做了幾件事。我們確實出售了一些貸款。您在之前的所有其他季度中都看到了這一點。您可以看到一些遺留貸款能夠在前幾個季度出售。本季度，我們賣出了 10 億美元的消費和財富貸款，可能還有 10 億美元的全球銀行業務。

So it's not big, but it's important for us just to make progress in different areas. And then most of the RWA optimization plan that we've been doing is pretty quiet, it's taking the securities that are 20% risk-weighted asset. And as they roll off, remember, there's like $15 billion of them roll off every quarter. We can replace those with treasuries at a higher yield.

所以它並不大，但對我們來說重要的是在不同的領域取得進展。然後我們一直在做的大部分 RWA 優化計劃都非常安靜，它採用的是 20% 風險加權資產的證券。請記住，隨著它們的滾滾，每個季度都有大約 150 億美元的滾滾。我們可以用收益率更高的國債來代替那些。

So we're getting more yield and we're reducing the RWAs with that. And then the other thing I'd just say on RWA optimization is we probably tapped the brakes a little bit on loan production this quarter in a couple of places. And we did a little bit of CDS hedging here and there. And you'll see, if you look at our numbers, you'll also see the global markets, just the way that the customers are demanding balance sheet. The balance sheet is still growing, but the RWAs are a little bit lower. So there's a lot that goes into RWAs, but it's $1 billion here, $1 billion. You add it all up, and it makes a difference.

所以我們得到了更多的收益，我們正在減少風險加權資產。然後我要說的關於 RWA 優化的另一件事是，我們可能在本季度的幾個地方對貸款生產稍作了製動。我們在這里和那裡做了一點 CDS 對沖。你會看到，如果你看看我們的數據，你也會看到全球市場，就像客戶要求資產負債表一樣。資產負債表仍在增長，但風險加權資產略低。因此，風險加權資產有很多內容，但這裡是 10 億美元，10 億美元。你把它全部加起來，它會有所作為。

It was awesome. I appreciate that. And I guess, very much related, you've just touched on it a little bit. But I'm curious, you're a prime and super prime bank in consumer land, you gave us enough details. I know how you're thinking about growth there. On the commercial side, given what we're all facing in this potential real buzz of the economy, how do you approach risk and what business to take on?

太棒了。我很感激。我想，非常相關，你剛剛觸及了一點。但我很好奇，你是消費領域的優質銀行和超級優質銀行，你給了我們足夠的細節。我知道你如何看待那裡的增長。在商業方面，鑑於我們都面臨著這種潛在的真正經濟繁榮，您如何應對風險以及從事什麼業務？

I don't know if you could include in that thought so kind of maturity wall you're looking at on the commercial side of the book?

我不知道你是否可以在這個想法中加入你在這本書的商業方面看到的那種成熟牆？

Look, we always say to ourselves and what our teammates is that responsible growth across the last decade plus leads us to where we are. And so you're not going to do anything like this afternoon to change the impact. Candace and her team have negative growth this quarter, but the fourth quarter and the first couple of quarters next year, modestly negative growth.

看，我們總是對自己和我們的隊友說，在過去十年裡負責任的成長加上帶領我們到達現在的位置。所以你不會像今天下午那樣做任何事情來改變影響。 Candace 和她的團隊本季度出現了負增長，但第四季度和明年前幾個季度出現了適度的負增長。

You're not going to change your portfolio overnight. So then the question is how do you manage it, right? So we have limits across all the different categories. You can see the spread of risk in the supplemental book. You can see that nobody is a big part of it.

你不會在一夜之間改變你的投資組合。那麼問題是你如何管理它，對吧？所以我們對所有不同的類別都有限制。您可以在補充書中看到風險的分佈。你可以看到沒有人是其中的重要組成部分。

Then we look customer by customer and anticipate who is going to be needing money in terms of refinancing, but also in terms of just operating like we did during the pandemic on through every single loan of a company with $5 million of revenue more in our company on a quarterly basis for what I'm sure we had it.

然後，我們逐個查看客戶，並預測誰將需要再融資方面的資金，以及像我們在大流行期間所做的那樣，通過一家公司的每筆貸款，我們公司的收入增加了 500 萬美元每季度一次，我相信我們有它。

So we we worked the construct of the book who we underwrite client selection, the structure of the deals, et cetera, in the spread of diversity among industries and U.S. versus non-U.S., et cetera. But then on top of that, we always work in the book hard, and our ratings integrity is very high. We can see it as measured in the SNCs and other things against a third party very rare that we have much to do and anything we have rated and we make sure we test that continuously with our credit review team under Christine Katziff and Geoff Greener's team because that, at the end of the day, make sure we're not fooling ourselves.

因此，我們構建了我們承保客戶選擇的書，交易的結構等，在行業和美國與非美國之間的多樣性傳播等方面。但最重要的是，我們總是在書中努力工作，我們的收視率非常高。我們可以看到它是在 SNC 和其他針對第三方的事情中衡量的，我們有很多事情要做以及我們已經評級的任何事情，我們確保我們在 Christine Katziff 和 Geoff Greener 的團隊下與我們的信用審查團隊持續測試它，因為說到底，請確保我們沒有自欺欺人。

And and we continue to look at that. And frankly, I think this quarter, we still had upgrades exceeded downgrades. If you look at NPLs and reservable criticized, they both went down this quarter again. And so we're seeing improvement in the credit book even though all of the parade of horribles that you sort of alluded to, and it wouldn't take a perspicacious person to see that because it's in the paper every day.

我們繼續關注這一點。坦率地說，我認為本季度，我們仍然有升級超過降級。如果你看一下 NPL 和可保留的批評，它們在本季度都再次下降。因此，即使您提到的所有可怕的遊行，我們也看到信用記錄有所改善，並且不需要一個有洞察力的人看到這一點，因為它每天都在報紙上。

But right now, the credit continues to improve, but it's what we did over the last 12 years, 13 years of this good stead as we head into the thing.

但現在，信譽繼續改善，但這是我們在過去 12 年所做的，13 年來我們在這方面取得的良好成績。

The next question comes from John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

I wanted to ask about the NII assumptions and maybe just your outlook around loan growth and what you're seeing in the economy, what you expect from loan growth. you mentioned modest? And then also, Alastair, just the pace of deposit mix shift and betas that you're kind of building into your outlook would be helpful.

我想問一下 NII 的假設，也許只是你對貸款增長的看法以及你在經濟中看到的情況，你對貸款增長的期望。你提到謙虛？然後，阿拉斯泰爾，只是存款組合轉變的速度和你在你的前景中建立的貝塔會有所幫助。

Well, on the loan side, I'd say we talked about at the beginning of the year that we thought loans would be high single digits, and we've slightly outperformed that, obviously. This quarter was a little bit of a 90-day reset for us in some ways. You didn't see that so much in consumer because the card growth just came through. And in commercial, certainly, we probably have that back just a touch.

好吧，在貸款方面，我想說我們在年初談到我們認為貸款將是高個位數，顯然我們的表現略勝一籌。在某些方面，本季度對我們來說有點像 90 天的重置。您在消費者中並沒有看到這麼多，因為卡的增長剛剛到來。當然，在商業方面，我們可能只是輕輕一點。

So we think we'll resume that sort of high single-digit, maybe mid if things begin to slow a little bit. So we've got that in our forecast to sort of resume the path that we've been on. With respect to deposits, I'd say on betas, obviously, we're just increasing those because we've got to be competitive in this environment.

因此，我們認為我們將恢復那種高個位數，如果事情開始放緩一點，可能會恢復到中等水平。所以我們在我們的預測中得到了這一點，以恢復我們一直在走的道路。關於存款，我想說的是，很明顯，我們只是在增加存款，因為我們必須在這種環境下保持競爭力。

And around balances, I think there's a sense that the industry will be flattish, maybe down. We think we're going to outperform the industry ever so slightly. So that's what's largely baked into our assumptions at this stage.

在餘額方面，我認為這個行業會變得平淡，甚至可能會下降。我們認為我們的表現將略微超越行業。所以這就是我們現階段假設的主要內容。

And in terms of funding the gap between the loan growth and flattish deposits, securities came down a fair amount this quarter. Can you continue to run down the securities portfolio? And what kind of volume do you get from cash flows off the book there?

在為貸款增長和存款持平之間的差距提供資金方面，本季度證券下降了相當大的數量。你能繼續縮減證券投資組合嗎？你從那裡的賬面現金流中獲得了什麼樣的交易量？

Yes. So the securities portfolio runs off at about $15 billion a quarter. It was a little more this quarter because we actually have an opportunity to sell some securities that offset some gains, some losses and freed up some RWAs. So we took advantage of that this quarter. And so the securities number this particular quarter was a little larger.

是的。因此，證券投資組合每季度流失約 150 億美元。本季度更多一些，因為我們實際上有機會出售一些證券來抵消一些收益、一些損失並釋放一些 RWA。因此，我們在本季度利用了這一優勢。所以這個特定季度的證券數量要大一些。

But I think on an ongoing basis, John, you should assume that we've got $15 billion that just comes in. And then broadly, we've got $175 billion of cash at the Central Bank and we got another couple of hundred billion of stuff that's mostly treasury swap to floating. So we've got lots of ways to pay for loans growth for the future.

但我認為，約翰，你應該假設我們有 150 億美元剛剛進入。從廣義上講，我們在中央銀行有 1750 億美元現金，我們還有另外幾千億美元主要是國庫互換到浮動的東西。因此，我們有很多方法可以為未來的貸款增長買單。

Okay. If I could just clarify the discussion with Erica around expenses. The $61 billion this year includes the litigation. Did you say next year, you're kind of targeting low single-digit expense growth, would you say positive operating leverage?

好的。如果我能澄清一下與 Erica 關於費用的討論。今年的 610 億美元包括訴訟。你有沒有說明年，你的目標是低個位數的費用增長，你會說積極的經營槓桿嗎？

Yes, I think we said that, yes, it includes the litigation. And the next year, we said basically -- this year includes litigation and next year, we said at some point, we'll get back to the 1% to 2% rise. We'll just have to see how some of the ins and outs play in terms of some of the stuff running off this year still left over (inaudible) but look at the $15.3 billion for 3 quarters in a row, honestly, each quarter has had a little bit of something in it.

是的，我想我們說過，是的，它包括訴訟。明年，我們基本上說 - 今年包括訴訟，明年，我們說在某個時候，我們將回到 1% 到 2% 的漲幅。我們只需要看看今年仍然剩下的一些東西的來龍去脈是如何發生的（聽不清），但看看連續三個季度的 153 億美元，老實說，每個季度都有裡面有一點東西。

John, if you think about the first quarter when we had FICA and type of stuff and at the second quarter had the regulatory (inaudible), third quarter had litigation. So we're bouncing around low 15s. We expect that run rate to kind of hold.

約翰，如果你想想第一季度我們有 FICA 和類型的東西，第二季度有監管（聽不清），第三季度有訴訟。所以我們在低15秒左右反彈。我們預計該運行率將保持不變。

We'll go next to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們將與富國銀行一起去邁克梅奧旁邊。

I'd like a little bit more detail on how you add employees and resources for the additional revenues from the second quarter to the third quarter, your profit margin on the new revenues was 100%. I mean, revenue is up $2 billion, expenses up $0 billion. Clearly, that's not sustainable. But I would like you to, if you can tie that into Slide 22, more digital users in Zelle, Erica, 1 billion interactions.

我想更詳細地了解您如何為第二季度到第三季度的額外收入增加員工和資源，您的新收入利潤率為 100%。我的意思是，收入增加了 20 億美元，支出增加了 0 億美元。顯然，這是不可持續的。但我希望你能把它與幻燈片 22 聯繫起來，在 Zelle、Erica、10 億次互動中擁有更多的數字用戶。

Your headcount is not growing a whole lot. How long can you keep that going? And theoretically, all this digitization over the past few years equates to like how many employees or how much in expenses or what's a terminal efficiency level to the past?

你的員工人數並沒有增加很多。你能堅持多久？從理論上講，過去幾年的所有這些數字化相當於過去有多少員工或多少費用或終端效率水平？

So I think, Mike, that's a lot of questions, but I'll try to sort out a little bit. Start with the last. There is no terminal efficiency ratio. Our idea is is when you work on expenses, you're not working on the ratio, it ends up in a ratio. We work on the actual dollar spent. And so we can keep working on investing heavily to drive that.

所以我認為，邁克，這是很多問題，但我會嘗試整理一下。從最後一個開始。沒有終端效率比。我們的想法是，當你計算費用時，你不是在計算比率，它最終會得到一個比率。我們研究實際花費的美元。因此，我們可以繼續大力投資以推動這一目標。

And the digitization of all the operational process in the company is what you see on Slide 22 on the consumer side. And you've seen it in the other slides on some of the wealth management and commercial operations still a lot of paper in the GTS business that we continue to take out. So that's what we're trying to do.

公司所有運營流程的數字化就是您在幻燈片 22 中看到的消費者方面的內容。您已經在其他一些關於財富管理和商業運營的幻燈片中看到了它，我們繼續取出 GTS 業務中的大量紙張。這就是我們正在嘗試做的事情。

But interesting enough, what's driving the near-term growth in employees has -- if there's obviously financial adviser growth, you saw the 400 this quarter that's investing in the training programs and hiring some people into the office, especially outside our footprint to get them grow.

但有趣的是，推動員工近期增長的因素是——如果有明顯的財務顧問增長，你會看到本季度有 400 人投資於培訓計劃並僱用一些人進入辦公室，尤其是在我們的足蹟之外來獲得他們生長。

And again, there's investment in commercial bankers. Those are not huge numbers, a big investment in the GCIB platform over the last year, I think 1,000 teammates the last couple of years. And so those investments come in, but also we're investing to drive the operational excellence platform and actually ensuring that we've got great customer service, dealing with all the things that go on.

再一次，對商業銀行家進行了投資。這些數字並不大，是去年對 GCIB 平台的大筆投資，我認為過去幾年有 1,000 名隊友。所以這些投資進來了，但我們也在投資推動卓越運營平台，並實際上確保我們擁有出色的客戶服務，處理所有發生的事情。

But a major part of it, frankly, is getting -- even though we have less branches year-over-year, less numbers of units, we have more people in them because we continue to build out the relationship management capabilities and branches. As you said on Page 22, the work goes out of the branches from a day-to-day sort of service things. We're putting more and more into relationship management. And that's why you see 400,000-plus net new checking households this quarter, which is a record for us going back to pre-financial crisis. We don't know how far back it is.

但坦率地說，其中很大一部分是 - 儘管我們的分支機構同比減少，單位數量減少，但我們有更多的人，因為我們繼續建立關係管理能力和分支機構。正如你在第 22 頁所說，工作從日常服務中脫離了分支機構。我們越來越多地投入到關係管理中。這就是為什麼你看到本季度有 400,000 多個新的檢查家庭，這對我們來說是金融危機前的記錄。我們不知道它有多遠。

If you look at small business originations are going up. If you look at merchant services sales, that was an investment in sales force there and investment. So it's just a combination of driving that. And the continued digitization allows us to continue to be efficient and effective, and frankly, plow the money saved back in the marketing back into more technology to make us even more effective and then into people where we need them.

如果你看看小企業的起源正在上升。如果您查看商家服務銷售，那是對銷售人員的投資和投資。所以這只是驅動它的組合。持續的數字化使我們能夠繼續保持高效和有效，坦率地說，將節省下來的營銷資金投入到更多技術上，使我們更加有效，然後投入到我們需要的人身上。

But if Tom Scrivener, runs our operations group sees a lot of stuff ahead of them he can take out Bruce Thompson of the credit operations platform across all the businesses, a lot they can take out over time and we just go work on it.

但是，如果管理我們的運營團隊的湯姆·斯克里維納（Tom Scrivener）看到很多東西擺在他們面前，他可以將信貸運營平台的布魯斯·湯普森（Bruce Thompson）淘汰出所有業務，隨著時間的推移，他們可以拿出很多東西，我們就繼續努力。

Mike, I think it's -- we don't necessarily translate it into that sort of idea of how many more people this digital replace or productivity metrics. But if you look at by different line of business, you just take consumer for a moment, if 50% of our consumer sales now are taking place digitally you almost think about that being the equivalent of 4,000 more financial centers.

邁克，我認為它是 - 我們不一定將其轉化為這種數字替代或生產力指標有多少人的想法。但是，如果您從不同的業務線來看，您只是暫時了解消費者，如果我們現在 50% 的消費者銷售是通過數字方式進行的，您幾乎認為這相當於增加了 4,000 個金融中心。

And it turns out if you get 35 million people banking in the pocket with a mobile phone, makes a big difference.

事實證明，如果你讓 3500 萬人在口袋裡用手機進行銀行業務，就會產生很大的不同。

And then just a quick follow-up then. So Brian, you said before, the NII benefits have come barreling through to the benefit of investors. That was the case this quarter. Do you expect that to continue to be the case over the next year?

然後只是快速跟進。所以布賴恩，你之前說過，NII 的好處已經讓投資者受益。本季度就是這種情況。您預計明年這種情況還會繼續嗎？

Yes. That's -- we said it last quarter and I hope that proved it true there to what you asked about last quarter. (inaudible) Mike to think about is, if you go back and look at the consumer page in the deck, you'll see the cost of deposits, which is the overall cost of all the stuff against deposit basis continues to basically be 110, 120 basis points, which is down from 300 basis points 15 years ago.

是的。那是 - 我們在上個季度說過，我希望這能證明你上個季度的問題是正確的。 （聽不清）Mike 想的是，如果你回過頭來看看甲板上的消費者頁面，你會看到押金成本，這是所有東西的總成本，以押金為基礎，基本上仍然是 110， 120 個基點，低於 15 年前的 300 個基點。

And that is extremely leverageable. And by the way, the profit margins even is back up to 30% and driving through. So we're letting that NII pull through, which then drives those numbers up.

這是非常具有槓桿作用的。順便說一句，利潤率甚至回到了 30% 並且正在推動。所以我們讓 NII 通過，然後推動這些數字上升。

And then 1 quick follow-up. Just I asked for someone else, they didn't really know. The consumer deposit betas are outperforming for you and for some others. Why is that outperforming now? And do you think that's going to last?

然後 1 次快速跟進。只是我問了別人，他們真的不知道。消費者存款測試版對您和其他一些人來說都表現出色。為什麼現在表現出色？你認為這會持續下去嗎？

The consumer -- if you go to the page on deposits, there's only one -- there's a distinguishing fact that goes on a consumer at our company and generally, which really drives up the tremendous value proposition we have to be the core transaction, core relationship bank for our customers.

消費者——如果你去存款頁面，只有一個——我們公司的消費者有一個明顯的事實，一般來說，這確實推動了我們必須成為核心交易的巨大價值主張，核心我們客戶的關係銀行。

And if you look at Page 10, you can see that the interest checking noninterest-bearing accounts, the dollar volume of deposits as a total percentage of deposits are a very high percentage, and that's where we focus on. And that allows you -- those are 0 or very low rates because the amount of services that come around them.

如果您查看第 10 頁，您會看到非計息賬戶的利息檢查、存款金額佔存款總額的百分比非常高，這就是我們關注的地方。這允許您 - 那些是 0 或非常低的費率，因為它們周圍的服務數量。

They access to 3,900 branches to the call centers, to the digital platform to the ability to [resolve] (inaudible) payments, et cetera, et cetera. And that's what drives it. So it's a -- the beta is a product of a mix more than it is a product of any pricing strategy, because 0-based interest -- noninterest-bearing checking or 0 in any rate environment.

他們可以訪問呼叫中心的 3,900 個分支機構，訪問數字平台以 [解決]（聽不清）支付等問題。這就是它的驅動力。所以它是一個 - 貝塔是一個組合的產品，而不是任何定價策略的產品，因為基於 0 的利息 - 無息支票或在任何利率環境中為 0。

Our next question comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Capital build was obviously faster than expected or at least what most of us have expected. And it doesn't really seem like there was much revenue drag from that. Can you kind of flip the script here and lean into certain businesses? And I guess I'm thinking as we look globally, there's some peers that are needing to build capital.

資本建設顯然比預期的要快，或者至少是我們大多數人的預期。而且似乎並沒有因此帶來太大的收入拖累。你可以在這裡翻轉腳本並傾向於某些業務嗎？我想我在想，當我們放眼全球時，有些同行需要建立資本。

So maybe there was some opportunity for further share gains in areas like market and Global Banking.

因此，在市場和全球銀行業務等領域，或許還有一些進一步擴大份額的機會。

Yes. Look, we're in a good position on capital even after the increased stress capital buffer results, which surprised our industry and our company, and we appealed that, as you well know, and didn't get relief, but we hope looked at in the future.

是的。看，即使在壓力資本緩衝結果增加之後，我們的資本狀況也很好，這讓我們的行業和我們的公司感到驚訝，我們提出了上訴，眾所周知，並沒有得到緩解，但我們希望看到在將來。

But the capital improvement really didn't take a much of revenue hit, honestly, the only place we had to just be careful on is loan production and the high-end businesses, i.e., GCIB. Other than that, the markets business has an allocation of the size of balance sheet and capital and RWA, which basically they were able to achieve all the results were not even use it up. And Jimmy DeMare do a great job there. The rest -- everything else is there's no real change.

但資本改善確實沒有對收入造成太大影響，老實說，我們唯一需要小心的是貸款生產和高端業務，即 GCIB。除此之外，市場業務對資產負債表和資本以及風險加權資產的規模進行了分配，基本上他們能夠實現所有結果，甚至沒有用完。 Jimmy DeMare 在那裡做得很好。其餘的 - 其他一切都沒有真正的變化。

And frankly, where we are now, those changes are -- that tapping is gone for this quarter already, and we're out and doing what we should do.

坦率地說，我們現在所處的位置，這些變化是——本季度的挖掘已經消失了，我們已經出去做我們應該做的事情了。

And then separately, just a little nerdy modeling question. As we think about the timing of the tax credits being pushed out, driving the tax rate slightly higher. Is there an offset in that all other fee line that I think is viewed in tandem with the tax rate and the ESG credit.

然後分開，只是一個有點書呆子的建模問題。當我們考慮推出稅收抵免的時機時，會略微提高稅率。我認為與稅率和 ESG 信用一起看待的所有其他費用線是否存在抵消。

Yes. So I would think about it this way. The effective tax rate for Q3 and Q4, likely a little bit higher than our original guided 10% to 12%. But for the full year, it should end up right around that 12% mark. And then I'd say this year, you're right, in the fourth quarter and all other.

是的。所以我會這樣想。第三季度和第四季度的有效稅率可能略高於我們最初指導的 10% 至 12%。但就全年而言，它最終應該在 12% 左右。然後我會說今年，你是對的，在第四季度和所有其他季度。

We have to take into account the fact that the ESG deals and their timing. So I think for your model, Matt, I would use $700 million of an after-tax loss for the fourth quarter as the most likely. And I'm talking all other now. And if you're asking me with respect to the consolidated other income, then I'd use something very similar to the fourth quarter of 2021, where we had an $800 million pretax loss. So I just use that there, okay?

我們必須考慮 ESG 交易及其時機這一事實。所以我認為對於你的模型，馬特，我最有可能使用第四季度的 7 億美元稅後虧損。我現在說的是其他的。如果你問我關於合併其他收入的問題，那麼我會使用與 2021 年第四季度非常相似的東西，我們有 8 億美元的稅前虧損。所以我只是在那裡使用它，好嗎？

Okay. And that's a high watermark of the year, right?

好的。這是今年的高水印，對吧？

Yes. That's just the seasonal nature of these ESG deals and their installation generally.

是的。這只是這些 ESG 交易及其安裝的季節性性質。

Our next question comes from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Just another -- just a question or 2 on fees. Can you just walk us through the -- some of the deltas and the service charges line? Just talk about -- I know you had mentioned both the overdraft run rating, deposit changes and ECR.

只是另一個 - 只是關於費用的一個或 2 個問題。你能帶我們看看——一些三角洲和服務費線嗎？只是說說——我知道你提到了透支運行評級、存款變化和 ECR。

Just how much of that is embedded by now? And what should we look for going forward from that -- those areas?

現在嵌入了多少？我們應該從中尋找什麼——那些領域？

Yes. So Ken, I think with respect to card kind of flattish, as I would think about it right now, a little bit of fourth quarter seasonal maybe that should benefit there. Service charges, most importantly, on the consumer side, all the NSF OD, we're now at the steady-state run rate.

是的。所以肯，我認為卡牌有點平淡，正如我現在所想的那樣，第四季度的一點季節性也許應該在那裡受益。服務費，最重要的是，在消費者方面，所有 NSF OD，我們現在處於穩態運行速度。

So that won't be hurting us again from this point forward. The commercial part you're right to highlight, the commercial business, the GTS business is adding clients. We're doing more with clients. So that's adding gross fees. Many of the clients prefer that earnings credit adjustment as the way that they essentially pay interest, receive interest and then pay fees.

所以從現在開始，這不會再次傷害我們。您正確強調的商業部分，商業業務，GTS 業務正在增加客戶。我們正在與客戶做更多的事情。所以這增加了總費用。許多客戶更喜歡收益信用調整，因為他們本質上是支付利息、收取利息然後支付費用的方式。

So that came down probably $150 million this quarter. I think you should expect that come down again next quarter just with the way rates are going. And then the other fees are probably pretty straightforward. Wealth will be all about market levels with a 1-month lag based on where the markets are. Investment banking kind of flattish, I would think, maybe hoping for a little bit of positive at some point but not necessarily this quarter.

因此，本季度可能下降了 1.5 億美元。我認為你應該預計下個季度會隨著利率的走勢再次下降。然後其他費用可能非常簡單。財富將完全取決於市場水平，根據市場所在位置滯後 1 個月。我認為，投資銀行業務有點平淡，也許希望在某個時候有點積極，但不一定在本季度。

And then Sales & Trading your guess is as good as ours, but we generally point to the sort of 15% seasonality in Q4 compared to Q3. And we're coming off of obviously a pretty good period.

然後銷售和交易您的猜測與我們的猜測一樣好，但我們通常指出第四季度與第三季度相比存在 15% 的季節性。而且我們顯然正在度過一個相當不錯的時期。

Yes. let me -- Ken, just -- one of the things I think if it goes a little bit to Mike's point, a little bit to some of their points, is that about 80-odd percent, if I got exact I think it's 84%, if I got it, right, of the interchange goes back to the customer base in terms of rewards products, either directly through our own rewards programs or through some affinity group programs. So obviously, as charges go up a fair amount of that goes back.

是的。讓我 - 肯，只是 - 我認為如果它有點像邁克的觀點，有點像他們的一些觀點，那就是大約 80%，如果我準確的話，我認為是 84 %，如果我明白了，對，交換的獎勵產品可以直接通過我們自己的獎勵計劃或通過一些親和團體計劃回到客戶群。很明顯，隨著費用的上漲，其中相當一部分費用又會退回。

Now what does that produce in value? It produces incredible value. So a lot of that in our preferred rewards fee structure, which go -- reward structure, which goes across all products in our company, if you even just look at the preferred segment and why deposit pricing and the stability of our accounts is different than peers through the last cycle, most of what happens at this time is that, that reward structure cements the customer relationship.

那麼這會產生什麼價值呢？它產生了難以置信的價值。因此，我們首選的獎勵費用結構中有很多內容——獎勵結構，它適用於我們公司的所有產品，如果你只看一下首選部分，以及為什麼存款定價和我們賬戶的穩定性不同於通過上一個週期的同行，此時發生的大部分情況是，獎勵結構鞏固了客戶關係。

And so that then has a 99% retention rate plus of those preferred customers that have about 80% all the deposits on the consumer segment. And they are very stable important customer base as all our customer bases are. So you have to think through on those fees. We're effectively investing those fees and the duration of the customer base, the length of customer base, the profitability of the customer base the stability of the customer base and the fact that then we can net produce a lot more customers because we're not having to replace a runoff.

這樣一來，保留率就達到了 99%，再加上那些在消費領域擁有大約 80% 存款的首選客戶。和我們所有的客戶群一樣，他們是非常穩定的重要客戶群。所以你必須考慮這些費用。我們正在有效地投資這些費用和客戶群的持續時間、客戶群的長度、客戶群的盈利能力、客戶群的穩定性以及我們可以淨生產更多客戶的事實，因為我們是不必更換徑流。

And so as you see some of the fee lines, same with NSF OD by doing what we've done the attrition rate has obviously dropped to the floor and you're seeing more production of that accounts there. And these are all related to total revenue per customer, profit per customer as opposed to any individual decision.

因此，當您看到一些費用線時，與 NSF OD 一樣，通過我們所做的工作，流失率顯然已降至最低，您會看到該賬戶的生產量增加。這些都與每位客戶的總收入、每位客戶的利潤有關，而不是任何個人決定。

I got just one separate question on -- you mentioned that this credit continues to improve, and you're seeing some underlying -- can just work us through just to remind us just where you are in terms of your scenarios from a CECL perspective and if the economy does, in fact, change, how weighted are you already to an already worsening scenario?

我只有一個單獨的問題——你提到這個信用在繼續提高，你看到了一些潛在的——可以幫助我們完成只是為了提醒我們從 CECL 的角度來看你在你的場景中所處的位置，並且如果經濟確實發生了變化，那麼您對已經惡化的情況有多大的權重？

Yes so this quarter, very similar to last quarter, we used blue chip consensus as our baseline. You're talking 50 different economists, some of whom are in the middle, some of whom are pessimistic themselves, some of them are more optimistic, that's 60%, that's the baseline.

是的，所以本季度，與上一季度非常相似，我們使用藍籌股共識作為我們的基準。你說的是 50 位不同的經濟學家，其中一些人處於中間，一些人自己悲觀，一些人更樂觀，這是 60%，這是基線。

The other 40% is downside scenarios that we built. And there, that's the weighting that we're applying and in this particular quarter, just to give you an idea Ken, once again, we increased our forecast for inflation in that scenario. We increased unemployment in that scenario. And we decreased GDP through the course of the next couple of years.

另外 40% 是我們構建的下行場景。在那裡，這就是我們正在應用的權重，在這個特定的季度，只是為了給你一個想法，肯，我們再次提高了我們對這種情況下的通貨膨脹的預測。在這種情況下，我們增加了失業率。在接下來的幾年裡，我們降低了 GDP。

So all of that -- that's a few quarters now in a row where that pattern is continuing and we did it again this quarter. And we'll just keep adjusting that over time. Based on the macroeconomic situation as it develops over time.

所以所有這些 - 現在連續幾個季度這種模式仍在繼續，我們本季度再次這樣做。我們會隨著時間的推移不斷調整。基於宏觀經濟形勢隨著時間的推移而發展。

Yes. Just Alistair, just to give a sense, though, it's a 5% unemployment like now and then continues all the way through next year. So there's an inherent on services and built into that reserving level, that our reserves (inaudible) and has those kinds of those kinds of statistics around say, whether it has inflation, but more importantly, it's based on that kind of unemployment level, which is 150 basis points over where we are. We are in October. So it would be pretty quick to move to the 5% at the end of the year.

是的。只是阿利斯泰爾，只是為了給人一種感覺，就像現在一樣，失業率為 5%，然後一直持續到明年。因此，服務有一個內在因素並內置於該儲備水平，即我們的儲備（聽不清）並有類似的統計數據，比如它是否有通貨膨脹，但更重要的是，它基於那種失業率水平，比我們現在的水平高出 150 個基點。我們在十月。因此，在年底達到 5% 將很快。

It moves even higher than that next year, just to give you an idea, it's in the mid 5s, just to give you a general sense.

它比明年移動得更高，只是為了給你一個想法，它在 5 年代中期，只是為了給你一個大致的感覺。

We'll go next to Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

我們將與摩根大通一起前往 Vivek Juneja。

Just a couple of questions, Brian and Alastair. (inaudible) marks a quick one. How much were those in the third quarter?

只是幾個問題，布賴恩和阿拉斯泰爾。 （聽不清）標記快速。第三季度是多少？

So we didn't call that out but that just for the simple reason, it was smaller this quarter. We run those through the P&L every week, as you know. So the results that we see in Global Markets and Investment Banking did include them last quarter. We called it out last quarter because it was just bigger. But this quarter, we didn't feel that we needed to.

所以我們沒有說出來，但只是出於簡單的原因，本季度它更小。如您所知，我們每週都會通過損益表運行這些。因此，我們在全球市場和投資銀行業務中看到的結果確實包括上個季度。我們上個季度把它叫出來，因為它更大。但是本季度，我們覺得我們不需要這樣做。

Okay. Brian, you talked about tech spend being up if I caught it correctly, 15% in '23. Is that right? And if so, what's the dollar amount of tech spend that you're expecting in either this year or next year?

好的。布賴恩，如果我沒聽錯的話，你談到技術支出會增加，在 23 年是 15%。那正確嗎？如果是這樣，您預計今年或明年的技術支出金額是多少？

This year, we're on [33] next year, we can move up to [15% of 34] or something like that.

今年，我們在 [33] 明年，我們可以移動到 [15% of 34] 或類似的東西。

Okay. This is for the new product development type of...

好的。這是針對新產品開發類型的...

Other people talk about the overall number is like $10 billion just for the platform and all the stuff. This is purely new code (inaudible).

其他人談論的整體數字是 100 億美元，僅用於平台和所有東西。這純粹是新代碼（聽不清）。

Yes. Yes. Got it. And for both of you, what are you expecting as the impact of Q2 on deposits? What are you modeling in?

是的。是的。知道了。對於你們倆，您對第二季度對存款的影響有何期待？你用什麼建模？

Well, we're obviously modeling in probably the same thing you are. We're going to have to price competitively for deposits in an environment where, obviously, market-based expectations are changing every day. So we're anticipating it's going to be a little bit tougher from this point forward, but that's already baked into our NIM.

好吧，我們顯然在建模可能與您相同的東西。在一個基於市場的預期每天都在變化的環境中，我們將不得不對存款進行有競爭力的定價。所以我們預計從現在開始會變得更加艱難，但這已經融入了我們的 NIM。

I guess to get more precise (inaudible) as you have better resources and better data than we do. What betas -- where do you expect betas to get to?

我想得到更精確（聽不清），因為您擁有比我們更好的資源和更好的數據。什麼測試版——您希望測試版到達哪裡？

Well, that's going to differ by customer base, and I don't want to get into this on this call just because it's competitively important for us, obviously. But you can assume that at the higher end of wealth, for example, I shared that we're passing through most of that at this stage.

嗯，這會因客戶群而異，我不想僅僅因為這對我們來說具有競爭重要性，顯然。但是你可以假設，例如，在財富的高端，我分享說我們在這個階段正在經歷大部分。

That's going to be very different versus our noninterest-bearing accounts. It will be different for operational versus nonoperational and commercial. So betas would be in quite different places, but I'm anticipating that they'll just continue to drift up over time.

與我們的無息賬戶相比，這將是非常不同的。運營與非運營和商業將有所不同。因此，Beta 版將出現在完全不同的地方，但我預計它們會隨著時間的推移繼續上升。

We'll go next to Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們將與摩根士丹利一起去 Betsy Graseck 旁邊。

Just a couple of questions. One is on how we think about comp going into next year. We've got this inflation rate that's obviously seems higher for longer and while we expect it comes down over the next 12 months? You're going into the year with it at a pretty high level and social security as even going up like 8% as we all know.

只是幾個問題。一個是關於我們如何看待明年的比賽。我們的通脹率顯然似乎會持續更長的時間，而我們預計它會在未來 12 個月內下降？眾所周知，您將進入相當高水平的這一年，社會保障甚至會上升 8%。

So wondering how you think about that. You've done a great job at being on the front foot with regard to minimum wage increases in your shop. So should we expect more of that to come into next year's expense guide as well?

所以想知道你是怎麼想的。您在提高商店的最低工資方面做得很好。那麼，我們是否應該期望更多的內容也會出現在明年的費用指南中？

That's I think, Betsy. The last several months, we've done the fifth share success program. We did our usual merit, we did a 3, 5 and 7 merit increase for everybody under $100,000 in compensation based on years of service. We went -- we accelerated $22 starting wage, which $40-odd (inaudible) a year now. And we'll continue those patterns. And the good news is we're seeing the attrition rate move -- start to move back, it was 12%, dropped to 6%, moved back up to 15-ish and has now dropped down the low 14s and each month it starts to drop even more.

我是這麼認為的，貝茜。過去幾個月，我們完成了第五次分享成功計劃。我們做了我們通常的優點，我們根據服務年限為每個 100,000 美元以下的人增加了 3、5 和 7 的優點。我們去了——我們加快了 22 美元的起薪，現在一年多 40 美元（聽不清）。我們將繼續這些模式。好消息是我們看到流失率開始回落，從 12% 下降到 6%，回到 15 歲左右，現在已經下降到 14 歲以下，而且每個月都開始了下降更多。

So we feel that we've got the right mix, and we all look at benefits continuously. We continue to -- they didn't vary any benefits during [what we] increase our childcare benefit to $275 per month per child, increased our tuition reimbursement and did it in advance. And so it's a complex package, but we should have -- we've been able to absorb all that and keep expenses bounced long at 15.3% a quarter for the last 3 or 4 quarters, and we'll continue to do that.

所以我們覺得我們的組合是正確的，我們都在不斷地關注收益。我們繼續——在 [我們] 將我們的托兒福利增加到每個孩子每月 275 美元期間，他們沒有改變任何福利，增加了我們的學費報銷並提前做到了。所以這是一個複雜的一攬子計劃，但我們應該有——我們已經能夠吸收所有這些，並在過去 3 或 4 個季度內保持每季度 15.3% 的長期支出反彈，我們將繼續這樣做。

And that's where it comes down to also using the technology investments and operational excellence investments and continue to reduce the aggregate number of people we have working and pay those talent teammates we have even [wherever] they work.

這就是歸結為還使用技術投資和卓越運營投資的地方，並繼續減少我們工作的總人數，並支付我們擁有的那些人才隊友，即使他們在[任何地方]工作。

Okay. So expectation for that to persist, meaning flat expenses year-on-year as we go into '23.

好的。因此，預計這種情況會持續下去，這意味著隨著我們進入 23 年，支出將同比持平。

Yes. We've said that we start growing in the 1% to 2% category, and that's part of these types of inflationary things that you're mentioning, which are higher now and then working it down over time. And so right now, we're running in the low 15% per quarter -- 15.3%, and we expect it to maintain and grow.

是的。我們已經說過，我們開始在 1% 到 2% 的類別中增長，這是你提到的這些類型的通貨膨脹的一部分，隨著時間的推移有時會更高，然後會降低。所以現在，我們每季度運行在 15% 的低位——15.3%，我們預計它會保持和增長。

But most of that growth does come, as you're saying, into the compensation and it [deads] and flows where it goes on a given -- when the markets are driving more investment banking markets and wealth management and those come down a little bit and the other compensation comes up as we've changed the base pay and things like I talked about.

但正如你所說，大部分增長確實來自薪酬，它[死亡]並流向特定的地方——當市場推動更多的投資銀行市場和財富管理時，這些市場略有下降位和其他補償出現了，因為我們已經改變了基本工資和我談到的事情。

But it's just -- it's -- with 214,000 people, it's a very complex discussion all over the world. So there's no one answer for the whole team.

但這只是 - 它是 - 有 214,000 人，這是全世界非常複雜的討論。所以整個團隊沒有一個答案。

Yes, I get that. Okay. That's helpful color. Just one other one, Alastair. You mentioned the securities roll off that you've been able to mix shift towards the higher yields over time. Can you give us a sense as to what kind of pull the par we should be thinking about for the model on the ASCI hits that you've had to take how many quarters or years should we be thinking that gets raised over.

是的，我明白了。好的。這是有用的顏色。只是另一個，阿拉斯泰爾。您提到隨著時間的推移，您已經能夠混合轉向更高收益率的證券滾動。您能否告訴我們我們應該為 ASCI 命中的模型考慮什麼樣的標準，您必須考慮我們應該考慮多少個季度或幾年才能提高。

So I'd say on the treasuries, generally speaking, you just think about the duration there being somewhere between 4 and 5 years. And on the mortgages, it's probably 7% to 8%. So it takes a while to pull the par. And then there'll be some derivatives as well.

所以我想說的是國債，一般來說，你只需考慮4到5年之間的持續時間。在抵押貸款上，可能是 7% 到 8%。所以需要一段時間才能拉平。然後還會有一些衍生品。

And I think the team can probably help you model that at some point. But those are broadly speaking about the numbers I would use. Obviously, it will be faster for any securities that we pay in the time.

而且我認為該團隊可能會在某個時候幫助您進行建模。但這些都是關於我將使用的數字。顯然，對於我們及時支付的任何證券來說，它都會更快。

Right. Yes. Got it.

正確的。是的。知道了。

We'll take our next question from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們將向 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy 提出下一個問題。

You touched on there is some early-stage delinquencies in the consumer book and not so much with the hurricane, but -- can you give us any color -- and your numbers are obviously very strong. But can you give us some color of what you're seeing there? Is it a lower FICO score customer? Anything you can read into it?

您談到了消費者手冊中有一些早期的違約，而不是颶風，但是-您能給我們任何顏色-而且您的數字顯然非常強大。但是你能給我們一些你在那裡看到的顏色嗎？它是較低 FICO 分數的客戶嗎？有什麼可以讀進去的嗎？

This is one of the things that have to be careful of because obviously, when a person doesn't pay you the FICO is going down de facto. So the reality is the origination statistics we put in the back of the deck there are very strong, remains strong. And what we're seeing is, I gave you the 5-year averages, which would so far exceed where we are today. We're still lower pre-pandemic.

這是必須小心的事情之一，因為很明顯，當一個人不付錢給你時，FICO 實際上會下降。所以現實是我們放在甲板後面的原始統計數據非常強大，仍然很強大。我們看到的是，我給了你 5 年的平均值，這遠遠超過了我們今天的水平。我們仍然處於大流行前的較低水平。

So even though we're picking back up, the word "normalization", ask people to be careful because we're moving back to what was all-time lows, and we're not even there. So I think if you look in the auto business, the number of repositions and stuff was down half on a monthly basis.

因此，即使我們正在恢復，“正常化”這個詞，要求人們小心，因為我們正在回到歷史最低點，我們甚至還沒有到達那裡。所以我認為如果你看看汽車行業，重新定位和東西的數量每月下降一半。

So we built -- under responsible growth, we built a book on the consumer side that we knew would be durable through different modeled outcomes, which is what we do in the stress testing and what we do in a reserve setting process and stuff, but also to actual outcomes and what we're seeing is it's weathering any notion of issues in the economy well.

所以我們建立了——在負責任的增長下，我們建立了一本關於消費者方面的書，我們知道通過不同的建模結果可以持久，這就是我們在壓力測試中所做的以及我們在儲備設置過程中所做的事情，但是對於實際結果，我們所看到的是它很好地應對了經濟中的任何問題。

And then on commercial book, as we said, we still see upgrades exceeding downgrades. The simple way to think about it is I think we're -- the trough the P&L provision cost with flat reserve build pre-pandemic was basically $1 billion a quarter, we're running around that number now. And that's building $400 million of reserves is a little different constitution and that means unless charge-offs pick up, you're going to see the reserve build start to mitigate because sort of we're sitting here at a pretty conservative scenario now, and it will all depend on that as we look forward. But remember, the baseline is now baking in effectively a recession based on the blue chip.

然後在商業書籍上，正如我們所說，我們仍然看到升級超過降級。考慮這個問題的簡單方法是，我認為我們是——在大流行前準備金持平的損益計提成本的谷底基本上是每季度 10 億美元，我們現在正在圍繞這個數字運行。建立 4 億美元的準備金是一個有點不同的構成，這意味著除非沖銷增加，否則你會看到準備金的增加開始減少，因為我們現在處於一個相當保守的情況下，並且正如我們所期待的那樣，這一切都將取決於此。但請記住，基準線現在正處於基於藍籌股的衰退中。

Gerard, I think if you went back to our supplement over the course of the past 10 years, you're going to find these numbers are so low and we're squinting to see a change here, and it's coming off of really historically extraordinary numbers. So is there a little bit of movement, Yes. But is it the second best of all time, Yes.

杰拉德，我想如果你回顧過去 10 年的增刊，你會發現這些數字太低了，我們正瞇著眼睛看到這裡的變化，而且它從歷史上非常不尋常數字。有沒有一點點動靜，是的。但它是有史以來第二好的嗎，是的。

Very good. Very good color. Can I follow up on the provision, Brian, you just mentioned about the $1 billion in the past. If you took that worse, you guys, I think, said 60, 40 in terms of your reserve build in terms of the base case on the economy versus a really difficult economy, if that really difficult economy went to 100%, what type of provision on a quarterly basis would that push up to?

很好。非常好的顏色。我可以跟進這項規定嗎，布賴恩，你剛才提到了過去的 10 億美元。如果你把情況變得更糟，你們，我認為，就經濟的基本情況與真正困難的經濟而言，你們的儲備增加了 60、40，如果那個真正困難的經濟達到 100%，那是什麼類型的每季度提供一次，這會增加嗎？

Yes. I mean I think we have to remember that I'd be careful about that because basically the baseline now has built into it a fairly weak for a path in the near term. And so I wouldn't expect exactly the numbers, but if you saw we built a bunch of reserves with a 15% unemployment and the projection that, that was going to go on a (inaudible) like it was in the pandemic, and you saw us move up, but we're sitting closer to what we call CECL day one and pandemic implementation.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們必須記住，我會對此保持謹慎，因為基本上現在的基線已經在其中構建了一個相當弱的短期路徑。所以我不期望確切的數字，但是如果你看到我們建立了一堆失業率為 15% 的儲備金，並且預測這將繼續（聽不清）就像在大流行中一樣，你看到我們向上移動，但我們離我們所謂的 CECL 第一天和大流行實施更近了。

And you can see some of that in the stress test. So we don't really speculate on that. But we have on stress test to test it to make sure and we can see the Fed stress tests and the adverse case, you can see these numbers, frankly, which I don't think would ever materialize given what you do in a period of time between then and there, but that gives you some sense if you look those outcomes.

你可以在壓力測試中看到其中的一些。所以我們並沒有真正推測這一點。但是我們有壓力測試來測試它以確保我們可以看到美聯儲的壓力測試和不利情況，坦率地說，你可以看到這些數字，考慮到你在一段時間內所做的事情，我認為這些數字永遠不會實現從那時到那裡的時間，但是如果您查看這些結果，那會給您一些意義。

We'll take our final question today from Charles Peabody with Portales.

今天我們將回答查爾斯·皮博迪和 Portales 的最後一個問題。

Yes. Most of my questions were asked already. But I was just curious if you had any thoughts about how the Basel III endgame might play out and the timing of implementation of that? Or any general thoughts on the color?

是的。我的大部分問題已經被問到了。但我只是好奇你是否對巴塞爾協議 III 的殘局以及實施的時間有什麼想法？或者對顏色有什麼一般的想法？

No particular updates at this point. Obviously, we're waiting along with everybody else. And once we get the rules, Charles, we'll sit down and start working through our own capital base. But obviously, as Brian pointed out earlier, just the fact that we've made ourselves in a position where already we're ahead of where we need to be in January 2024, we've got a lot of flexibility at this point for whatever the end game does come out with.

目前沒有特別的更新。顯然，我們正在與其他人一起等待。一旦我們得到規則，查爾斯，我們就會坐下來開始利用我們自己的資本基礎。但顯然，正如布賴恩早些時候指出的那樣，我們已經使自己處於一個已經領先於 2024 年 1 月需要達到的位置的事實，我們在這一點上有很大的靈活性，無論什麼最終遊戲確實出來了。

Okay. Well, thank you for all your questions and your attention. Let me just summarize for the third quarter 2022. You saw responsible growth in action once again. We had organic growth in all businesses. We had top line revenue growth driven by the NII increases. We had strong expense control, flat expenses for the third straight quarter operating leverage for the fifth straight quarter and good work on that.

好的。好吧，感謝您提出的所有問題和關注。讓我總結一下 2022 年第三季度的情況。您再次看到了負責任的增長。我們在所有業務中都有有機增長。 NII 增長推動了我們的收入增長。我們有很強的費用控制，連續第三個季度連續第五個季度的運營槓桿支出持平，並且在這方面做得很好。

We had good risk management. You can see that we're still running strong risk parameters, and we built the capital to the end-state 1124 levels that we need. So that's what we call responsible growth, and now you're seeing interaction. Thank you.

我們進行了良好的風險管理。您可以看到我們仍在運行強大的風險參數，並且我們將資本建立到我們需要的最終狀態 1124 水平。這就是我們所說的負責任的增長，現在你看到了互動。謝謝你。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。