美國銀行 (BAC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone and welcome to today's Q4 Bank of America earnings announcement.

大家好，歡迎收看今天的美國銀行第四季財報。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note today's call will be recorded.

請注意，今天的通話將會被錄音。

It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Lee McEntire.

現在我很高興將會議交給 Lee McEntire。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you.

謝謝。

Welcome.

歡迎。

Thank you for coming to the call to discuss our fourth quarter results.

感謝您參加電話會議討論我們第四季的業績。

Our earnings release documents are available on the Investor Relations section of the bankofamerica.com website and they include the earnings presentation that we'll make reference to during this call.

我們的收益發布文件可在bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分獲取，其中包括我們將在本次電話會議中參考的收益演示。

I hope everyone's had a chance to review the documents.

我希望每個人都有機會查看這些文件。

Our CEO, Brian Moynihan, will make some opening comments before Alastair Borthwick, our CFO discusses the details of the quarter.

我們的執行長 Brian Moynihan 將在我們的財務長 Alastair Borthwick 討論本季的細節之前發表一些開場評論。

Let me just remind you before we start that we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the call.

在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒您，我們可能會在電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述並參考非公認會計準則財務指標。

Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and the assumptions that are subject to risk and uncertainties.

前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期以及受到風險和不確定性影響的假設。

Factors that may cause our actual results to materially differ from expectations are detailed in the earnings materials and the SEC filings available on our website.

我們網站上提供的獲利資料和 SEC 文件中詳細介紹了可能導致我們的實際結果與預期有重大差異的因素。

Information about our non-GAAP financial measures including reconciliations to US GAAP can also be found in our earnings materials that are available on the website.

有關我們的非公認會計原則財務指標的信息，包括與美國公認會計原則的調節，也可以在我們網站上提供的收益材料中找到。

So with that, I'm happy to turn the call over to Brian.

因此，我很高興將電話轉給布萊恩。

So good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們。

Before we begin today, I just want to express our deep concern for our communities, clients and teammates impacted by the California wildfires.

在今天開始之前，我只想表達我們對受加州野火影響的社區、客戶和隊友的深切關注。

Our top priority of course is ensuring the safety and welfare of our team and helping our clients and customers.

當然，我們的首要任務是確保我們團隊的安全和福利，並幫助我們的客戶和顧客。

Our imperturbable market President, Raul Anaya, is leading our team out there.

我們冷靜的市場總裁 Raul Anaya 正在領導我們的團隊。

We have teams on the ground assisting in any way we can and are monitoring the situation to extend support and resources.

我們有現場團隊盡我們所能提供協助，並正在監控局勢以提供支援和資源。

So far, we have activated our client assistance program, donated $1 million in disaster relief to the American Red Cross, additional contributions to the LA food bank and the LA Chamber of Commerce small business efforts.

到目前為止，我們已經啟動了客戶援助計劃，向美國紅十字會捐贈了 100 萬美元用於救災，並向洛杉磯食品銀行和洛杉磯商會小型企業活動提供了額外捐款。

With that, let's turn to earnings starting on page 2 of the presentation.

接下來，讓我們從簡報的第 2 頁開始討論收益。

This morning, we reported $6.7 billion in net income.

今天早上，我們報告了 67 億美元的淨利潤。

That is $0.82 in EPS for the fourth quarter.

即第四季每股收益 0.82 美元。

That was a solid finish to another good year of Bank of America.

這是美國銀行又一個豐收年的堅實結束。

We grew revenue on a year over year basis in every category in quarter 4.

第四季度，我們每個類別的營收均較去年同期成長。

We saw good loan and deposit growth and Alastair's going to walk you through some of the details of the quarter in a moment, but I want to thank our team for another great year.

我們看到了良好的貸款和存款成長，阿拉斯泰爾稍後將向您介紹本季的一些細節，但我要感謝我們的團隊又創造了輝煌的一年。

For the full year of 2024, we generated $102 billion of revenue and reported net income of $27 billion -- $27.1 billion and EPS of $3.21.

2024 年全年，我們實現了 1,020 億美元的收入，淨利為 270 億美元至 271 億美元，每股收益為 3.21 美元。

We produced 83 basis points return on assets and 13% return on tangible common equity.

我們的資產報酬率為 83 個基點，有形普通股報酬率為 13%。

We generated these results working from a strong balance sheet that allowed us to support clients and economies continue to grow.

我們透過強大的資產負債表取得了這些成果，這使我們能夠支持客戶和經濟的持續成長。

The economy appears to be now settled into a 2% to 3% GDP type growth environment.

目前經濟似乎已經進入了 GDP 成長 2% 至 3% 的環境。

It has healthy employment levels in the resilient consumer.

它在有彈性的消費者中擁有健康的就業水平。

The amassing of the American consumer can be seen in our data.

從我們的數據可以看出美國消費者的聚集。

So far in the first two weeks in January, they're spending money at 4% to 5% clip over last year, similar to what they did in the fourth quarter.

到目前為止，一月份的前兩週，他們的支出比去年減少了 4% 到 5%，與第四季的情況類似。

In our business side, the clients are profitable, they're liquid and seeing good productivity.

在我們的業務方面，客戶是有利可圖的，他們具有流動性並且看到了良好的生產力。

We ended the year with $953 billion of liquidity.

年底我們的流動性達到 9,530 億美元。

We also ended with $201 billion of regulatory CET1 capital and a CET1 ratio of 11.9%, leaving us nearly 115 basis points of excess capital as we begin 2025.

我們也獲得了 2010 億美元的監管 CET1 資本和 11.9% 的 CET1 比率，在 2025 年開始時，我們還有近 115 個基點的超額資本。

For Bank of America, the year was characterized by a few important highlights that played out as expected and were consistent with our communications to you throughout the year.

對於美國銀行來說，這一年的特點是有一些重要的亮點，這些亮點符合預期，並且與我們全年向您傳達的訊息一致。

First, we saw net interest income bottom out at $13.9 billion an FTE basis in the second quarter 2024.

首先，我們看到 2024 年第二季淨利息收入以 FTE 計算觸底至 139 億美元。

We ended the year with the fourth quarter on the same FTE basis at $14.5 billion.

年底，第四季 FTE 為 145 億美元。

NII was a bit better than we expected.

NII 比我們預期的要好一些。

This obviously provides a great starting point for 2025 and based on the assumptions Alastair is going to discuss a little later, we should report record NII in 2025.

這顯然為 2025 年提供了一個很好的起點，根據阿拉斯泰爾稍後討論的假設，我們應該在 2025 年報告創紀錄的 NII。

So how did we do that?

那我們是如何做到的呢？

We drove organic growth in all the businesses and that we have highlighted on slide 3.

我們推動了所有業務的有機成長，我們在幻燈片 3 中強調了這一點。

We saw continued growth in net new checking, new households, new companies in commercial banking growth in our institutional markets business.

我們看到我們的機構市場業務中商業銀行淨新支票、新家庭、新公司的持續成長。

This organic activity enabled us to grow loans and deposits at a pace we believe is to be ahead of our industry average than our peers.

這種有機活動使我們能夠以我們認為領先於同行的行業平均水平的速度增加貸款和存款。

A key for us obviously is the growth in our deposit franchise.

對我們來說，關鍵顯然是存款業務的成長。

If you look at slide 4, you can see we've now grown deposits for six consecutive quarters.

如果您查看投影片 4，您會發現我們的存款現已連續六個季度成長。

In the most recent quarter, we saw growth in consumer balances and stability around the noninterest bearing balances across all the businesses.

在最近一個季度，我們看到消費者餘額的成長以及所有企業的無息餘額的穩定性。

We continue to price in a disciplined manner and rates paid moved lower this quarter across the board.

我們繼續以嚴格的方式定價，本季支付的費率全面下降。

Overall, rate paid on deposits moved from 210 basis points in the third quarter to 194 basis points this quarter and we're lower -- in the fourth quarter, we're lower in every business segment.

總體而言，存款利率從第三季的 210 個基點升至本季度的 194 個基點，並且有所下降——第四季度，每個業務部門的利率都下降了。

On the loan side, consumer loans grew in every category linked quarter.

在貸款方面，消費貸款在每個類別相關季度都有成長。

Commercial loan demand continued to build off the straits we saw in the third quarter of 2024 and commercial loans grew 5% year over year for the fourth quarter, at a much faster analyzed pace when comparing the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2024.

商業貸款需求在 2024 年第三季的困境中持續成長，第四季商業貸款年增 5%，與 2024 年第三季和第四季相比，分析速度要快得多。

So back to slide 3.

那麼回到幻燈片 3。

In our wealth management business, we added 24,000 new households in 2024.

財富管理業務2024年新增家庭2.4萬戶。

We ended the year with $6 trillion in total client balances that we manage for people in America across our global wealth and consumer businesses.

截至年底，我們在全球財富和消費業務中為美國人管理的客戶餘額總額為 6 兆美元。

Our consumer investments team, what we call Merrill Edge crossed a new milestone this quarter and now sits in excess of $518 billion in balances.

我們的消費者投資團隊（我們稱之為 Merrill Edge）本季跨越了一個新的里程碑，目前餘額超過 5,180 億美元。

Investment banking gained share of industry revenue in 2024.

2024 年，投資銀行業務在產業收入中所佔的份額將會增加。

Our sales and trading team put up the 11th straight quarter of year over year revenue growth and achieved a new full year record of nearly $19 billion in revenue.

我們的銷售和交易團隊連續 11 個季度實現營收年增，並創下近 190 億美元收入的全年新紀錄。

Asset quality stabilized and remain strong with net charge offs declining modestly from third quarter.

資產品質穩定並維持強勁，淨沖銷較第三季小幅下降。

Early in New Year, we highlighted that our expectation on consumer credit is that they would stabilize to normal level and on commercial office losses, they would trend down during the year.

新年伊始，我們強調，我們對消費信貸的預期是其將穩定至正常水平，而對商業辦公損失的預期將在年內呈下降趨勢。

We saw both those trends continue into quarter 4.

我們看到這兩個趨勢持續到第四季。

On the expense side, we continue to invest in our franchise and even though spending increases in brand, people and technology and strong fee growth which drove incentive and transaction prospects and costs higher, we managed to create operating leverage in the fourth quarter.

在費用方面，我們繼續投資於我們的特許經營權，儘管在品牌、人員和技術方面的支出增加以及費用的強勁增長推動了激勵和交易前景以及成本的上升，但我們仍設法在第四季度創造了營運槓桿。

Our digitalization engagement expanded across all our businesses.

我們的數位化參與擴展到我們所有的業務。

We saw more than 14 billion logins to our digital platforms in 2024.

2024 年，我們的數位平台登入次數超過 140 億次。

Our Erica capability surpassed 2.5 billion interactions from its inception and our CashPro App surpassed $1 trillion in payments made through the app in 2024.

自成立以來，我們的 Erica 能力已超過 25 億次互動，我們的 CashPro 應用程式在 2024 年透過該應用程式支付的金額超過了 1 兆美元。

It was -- it's also worth noting that digital sales in our consumer product area has crossed 60% in the fourth quarter again.

值得注意的是，第四季我們消費品領域的數位銷售額再次突破 60%。

You can see all these trends in our industry leading digital disclosure on slides 26, 28 and 30 in the appendix.

您可以在附錄第 26、28 和 30 張幻燈片中看到我們行業領先的數位揭露中的所有這些趨勢。

All the success in balance sheet straits allowed us to deliver more capital back to our shareholders.

資產負債表困境中的所有成功使我們能夠向股東返還更多資本。

We returned $21 billion of capital to shareholders in 2024 which was 75% more than 2023 and included an 8% increase in the common dividend.

2024 年，我們向股東返還了 210 億美元的資本，比 2023 年增加了 75%，其中普通股股息增加了 8%。

So in summary, for both the fourth quarter and for the year, we enjoyed good profitability.

綜上所述，無論是第四季或全年，我們都享有良好的獲利能力。

We drove healthy returns.

我們帶來了健康的回報。

We saw good organic client activity across all the businesses.

我們在所有業務中都看到了良好的有機客戶活動。

We continued to manage the risk well.

我們繼續做好風險管理。

We've increased the capital and delivered back to our shareholders.

我們增加了資本並返還給股東。

And we positioned ourselves well for growth in 2025.

我們為 2025 年的成長做好了充分準備。

I want to again, thank my team for continuing to drive another year of responsible growth.

我想再次感謝我的團隊繼續推動另一年的負責任成長。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Alastair.

有了這個，我會把它交給阿拉斯泰爾。

Thank you, Brian.

謝謝你，布萊恩。

And I'm going to start on slide 5 of the earnings presentation because it will provide just a little more context on the quarter.

我將從收益簡報的第 5 投影片開始，因為它將提供有關本季的更多背景資訊。

For the fourth quarter, as Brian noted, we reported $6.7 billion in net income or $0.82 per share.

正如布萊恩指出的，我們第四季的淨利潤為 67 億美元，即每股 0.82 美元。

And before we talk about comparisons between periods, I just need to remind you that our fourth quarter 2023 GAAP net income number included two notable items.

在我們討論不同時期之間的比較之前，我只需要提醒您，我們的 2023 年第四季 GAAP 淨利潤數據包括兩個值得注意的項目。

In the fourth quarter of '23, first, we recorded $2.1 billion of pretax expense for the special assessment by the FDIC to the industry to recover losses from the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

首先，在2023年第四季度，我們記錄了21億美元的稅前費用，用於FDIC對產業的特別評估，以彌補矽谷銀行和Signature銀行倒閉帶來的損失。

And that reduced the EPS last year by $0.20.

這使得去年的每股收益減少了 0.20 美元。

Second, we recorded a negative pretax impact to our market making revenue of approximately $1.6 billion related to the cessation of BSBY as an alternative rate and that reduced earnings per share last year by $0.15. So when you adjust for the large FDIC assessment and the BSBY cessation charge, fourth quarter '23 net income was $5.9 billion or $0.70 per share.

其次，我們記錄了由於停止將 BSBY 作為替代利率而對我們的做市收入產生約 16 億美元的稅前負面影響，並導致去年每股收益減少了 0.15 美元。因此，當您調整 FDIC 的巨額評估和 BSBY 終止費用後，23 年第四季的淨利潤為 59 億美元或每股 0.70 美元。

On slide 6, we note some of the highlights of the quarter and we reported revenue of $25.5 billion on a fully taxable equivalent basis, up 15% from the fourth quarter of '23.

在投影片 6 中，我們注意到了本季的一些亮點，我們報告的收入為 255 億美元（以完全應稅等值計算），比 2023 年第四季成長 15%。

And if you exclude the fourth quarter '23 BSBY cessation charge, our revenues grew 8% year over year.

如果排除 23 年第四季 BSBY 終止費用，我們的營收年增 8%。

As Brian said, all the revenue items are showing improvement year over year.

正如布萊恩所說，所有收入項目都逐年改善。

NII grew 3%.

NII 成長 3%。

Investment banking grew 44%.

投資銀行業務成長 44%。

This quarter, our $4 billion of sales and trading revenue marked the fourth quarter record and it grew 10% from the year ago period.

本季度，我們的銷售和交易收入達到 40 億美元，創下第四季的紀錄，較去年同期成長 10%。

And investment and brokerage fees rose 21% with both assets under management flows and market levels contributing nicely to the growth.

投資和經紀費用增加了 21%，管理資產流量和市場水準都對成長做出了良好貢獻。

Our card income and service charges grew 7%.

我們的卡片收入和服務費增加了 7%。

Noninterest expense was $16.8 billion and was up when adjusted for the FDIC special assessment driven by incentives paid for the strong revenue growth as Brian noted and the related activity costs that comes with that.

正如 Brian 指出的那樣，非利息支出為 168 億美元，根據 FDIC 特別評估進行調整後有所上升，該評估是由於收入強勁增長所提供的激勵措施以及隨之而來的相關活動成本。

Expense also included additional investments in people, technology and brand with some major partnerships announced recently and it included what we expect to be the peak in quarterly costs associated with enhancing our compliance costs and controls.

費用還包括最近宣布的一些主要合作夥伴對人員、技術和品牌的額外投資，其中包括我們預計與加強合規成本和控制相關的季度成本高峰。

The good news is we created operating leverage in the quarter.

好消息是我們在本季創造了營運槓桿。

Provision expense for the quarter was $1.5 billion and was consistent with the previous two quarters.

本季撥備支出為 15 億美元，與前兩季持平。

And lastly, returns in the fourth quarter were 80 basis points of ROA and 13% return on tangible common equity.

最後，第四季的 ROA 回報率為 80 個基點，有形普通股回報率為 13%。

Turning to the balance sheet on slide 7, we ended the quarter at 3.6 -- sorry $3.26 trillion of total assets, down $63 billion from the third quarter driven by seasonally lower levels of client activity in global markets while loans across the businesses grew $20 billion in the quarter.

轉向投影片7 上的資產負債表，本季結束時，我們的總資產為3.6 美元，抱歉，總資產為3.26 兆美元，較第三季下降630 億美元，原因是全球市場客戶活動水準季節性下降，而各企業的貸款增加了200 億美元在本季。

Otherwise in the quarter, the investments of our excess liquidity saw a $9 billion reduction in hold to maturity securities and at the same time, the combination of shorter-term liquidity investments of cash and available for sale securities increased $28 billion.

除此之外，在本季度，我們的過剩流動性投資導致持有至到期證券減少了 90 億美元，同時，現金和可供出售證券的短期流動性投資組合增加了 280 億美元。

On the funding side, total deposits grew $35 billion on an ending basis as both interest bearing and noninterest bearing grew.

在融資方面，由於計息和無息增長，存款總額期末增長了 350 億美元。

Long term debt fell $14 billion driven by net redemptions and valuations and global markets funding declined in line with assets.

在淨贖回和估值的推動下，長期債務下降了 140 億美元，全球市場融資也隨資產下降。

Liquidity remains strong with $953 billion of global liquidity sources.

流動性依然強勁，全球流動性來源達 9,530 億美元。

That is up modestly compared to the third quarter even as we paid down some debt and retired some preferreds.

儘管我們償還了一些債務並退休了一些優先股，但與第三季相比仍略有上升。

Shareholders' equity was flat at around $295 billion and within all of that, we returned $5.5 billion of capital back to shareholders with $2 billion in common dividends paid and the repurchase of $3.5 billion in shares this quarter.

股東權益持平於 2,950 億美元左右，其中，本季我們向股東返還了 55 億美元的資本，支付了 20 億美元的普通股股息，並回購了 35 億美元的股票。

Tangible book value per share of $26.58 rose 9% from the fourth quarter last year.

每股有形帳面價值為 26.58 美元，較去年第四季成長 9%。

Turning to regulatory capital, our CET1 level improved to $201 billion and the CET1 ratio rose to 11.9%, remaining well above our new 10.7% requirement.

就監管資本而言，我們的 CET1 水準提高至 2,010 億美元，CET1 比率升至 11.9%，仍遠高於我們新的 10.7% 要求。

Risk-weighted assets increased modestly as increases in loans were mostly offset by lower RWA, supporting our global markets client activity.

風險加權資產小幅成長，貸款成長大部分被 RWA 下降所抵消，支持了我們的全球市場客戶活動。

Our supplementary leverage ratio was 5.9% versus a minimum requirement of 5% which leaves some capacity for balance sheet growth and our $460 billion of total loss absorbing capital means our TLAC ratio remains comfortably above our requirements.

我們的補充槓桿率為5.9%，而最低要求為5%，這為資產負債表成長留下了一定的空間，而我們4,600 億美元的總損失吸收資本意味著我們的TLAC 比率仍然遠高於我們的要求。

Let's turn to slide 8, we can go a little deeper on loans by looking at average balances.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 8，我們可以透過查看平均餘額來更深入地了解貸款。

And loans in the fourth quarter of $1.08 trillion improved 3% year over year driven by solid commercial loan growth.

在商業貸款穩健成長的推動下，第四季貸款額為 1.08 兆美元，年增 3%。

Overall, commercial loans grew 5% year over year.

整體而言，商業貸款年增5%。

And importantly, this included an 8% drop in commercial real estate loans.

重要的是，其中商業房地產貸款下降了 8%。

Commercial loans excluding commercial real estate grew 7% year over year and the consumer loans grew modestly both linked quarter and year over year.

不包括商業房地產的商業貸款年增 7%，消費貸款較上季和年比均小幅成長。

As Brian said, on a linked quarter basis, every category of consumer lending grew, and you can see that at the bottom of slide 8.

正如布萊恩所說，按季度計算，消費貸款的每個類別都在增長，你可以在幻燈片 8 的底部看到這一點。

If we turn our focus to NII performance and use slide 9, regarding NII on a GAAP non fully taxable equivalent basis, NII in Q4 was $14.4 billion.

如果我們將重點轉向 NII 績效並使用幻燈片 9，則關於 GAAP 非完全應稅等值基礎上的 NII，第四季度的 NII 為 144 億美元。

And on a fully taxable equivalent basis, NII was $14.5 billion.

在完全應稅等值基礎上，NII 為 145 億美元。

Several quarters ago, we signaled our expectation that NII would trough in the second quarter of 2024 and begin to grow from there.

幾個季度前，我們表示預計 NII 將在 2024 年第二季觸底，並從此開始成長。

And this represents now our second quarter of NII growth, and we expect that growth to continue in 2025.

這代表了我們第二季的 NII 成長，我們預計這種成長將在 2025 年繼續。

In fact, if you look at the two quarters after the inflection point, NII is already growing at the 5% rate.

事實上，如果你看看拐點後的兩個季度，NII 已經以 5% 的速度成長。

Fourth quarter NII on a fully taxable equivalent basis increased by $399 million from the third quarter driven by a number of factors.

在多種因素的推動下，第四季基於完全應稅等值基礎的NII較第三季增加了3.99億美元。

First, it was led by improvement in deposits across the businesses and even as deposit balances increased linked quarter, our interest expense on those deposits declined by $600 million.

首先，這是由各業務存款的改善所帶動的，即使存款餘額環比增加，我們這些存款的利息支出也下降了 6 億美元。

Loan growth and fixed rate asset repricing also benefited us again this quarter.

本季度貸款成長和固定利率資產重新定價也再次使我們受益。

With regard to a forward view, interest rate expectations continue to drive volatility and predictability, but we'll provide some thoughts for future NII.

就前瞻性觀點而言，利率預期繼續推動波動性和可預測性，但我們將為未來的 NII 提供一些想法。

We expect to start the year in the first quarter with NII modestly higher than the fourth.

我們預計今年第一季的淨投資指數將略高於第四季。

Remember that the first quarter has two fewer days of interest and that's roughly the equivalent of about $250 million of NII equivalent.

請記住，第一季的利息天數減少了兩天，這大約相當於 2.5 億美元的 NII 等值。

So even with that, we expect to grow modestly.

因此，即便如此，我們仍預期會適度成長。

Then we expect that growth to increase through the year to the point where it could be 6% to 7% higher in 2025 than 2024.

然後，我們預計 2025 年的成長率將比 2024 年高出 6% 至 7%。

We expect to exit the year at least $1 billion higher in the fourth quarter and that would put us in a range of $15.5 billion to $15.7 billion on a fully taxable equivalent basis and that's obviously significantly higher than the Q2 '24 trough of $13.9 billion.

我們預計今年第四季的營收將至少增加10 億美元，這將使我們在完全應稅等值基礎上達到155 億至157 億美元的範圍，這顯然明顯高於24 年第二季139 億美元的低谷。

I have to note the following assumptions.

我必須注意以下假設。

First, we assume that the current forward curve materializes and while the interest rate curve has changed significantly over a fairly short period of time, as of the January 10, the curve was expecting only one rate cut in 2025 that may come in May or June.

首先，我們假設目前的遠期曲線已經實現，儘管截至1 月10 日，利率曲線在相當短的時間內發生了顯著變化，但該曲線預計2025 年只會有一次降息，可能會在5 月或6 月發生。

Based on our more recent growth experienced, we're assuming loan and deposit growth in 2025 that's higher than 2024 and more consistent with growth in a 2% to 3% GDP environment.

根據我們最近的成長經驗，我們假設 2025 年的貸款和存款成長高於 2024 年，並且與 GDP 2% 至 3% 環境下的成長更加一致。

The other elements of anticipated growth in NII expected are the benefits of asset repricing as fixed rate securities and loans and swaps roll off and those get repriced at higher rates.

NII 預期成長的其他因素是資產重新定價的好處，因為固定利率證券、貸款和互換會減少，而這些資產會以更高的利率重新定價。

And those themes all remain consistent with our prior conversations with you in the last several earnings calls.

這些主題都與我們之前在最近幾次財報電話會議中與您的對話保持一致。

With regard to interest rate sensitivity, on a dynamic deposit basis, we provide a 12 month change in NII for an instantaneous shift in the curve above or below the forward curve.

關於利率敏感性，在動態存款的基礎上，我們針對遠期曲線上方或下方的曲線的瞬時移動提供了 12 個月的 NII 變化。

And on that basis, a 100-basis point increase would benefit NII by roughly $1 billion while a decrease of 100 basis points would decrease NII over the next 12 months by $2.3 billion.

在此基礎上，增加 100 個基點將使 NII 受益約 10 億美元，而減少 100 個基點將使未來 12 個月的 NII 減少 23 億美元。

Lastly, note that our slide showing the trended investment of excess deposits is in our appendix.

最後，請注意，我們的附錄中顯示了超額存款投資趨勢的幻燈片。

It's on page 21.

是在第21頁。

Deposit levels grew to $870 billion over loans at the end of Q4.

截至第四季末，存款水準較貸款增至 8,700 億美元。

And that's an incredible source of value for shareholders.

這對股東來說是難以置信的價值來源。

And $649 billion or 54% of our excess liquidity is now in short dated cash and available for sale securities.

6,490 億美元（即我們過剩流動性的 54%）現在是短期現金和可供出售的證券。

The longer dated lower yielding hold to maturity book continues to roll off and we continue to reinvest in higher yielding assets.

期限較長、收益率較低的持有到期帳簿持續減少，我們繼續對收益率較高的資產進行再投資。

Okay.

好的。

Let's now turn to expense and we'll use slide 10 for the discussion.

現在讓我們轉向費用，我們將使用幻燈片 10 進行討論。

We reported $16.8 billion in expense this quarter and the fourth quarter of '23 included the large FDIC special assessment charge and excluding that, expense increased.

我們報告本季支出為 168 億美元，23 年第四季包括大額 FDIC 特別評估費用，排除這筆費用，支出有所增加。

The increased expense from prior periods was driven by a number of factors and was partially offset by a roughly $300 million release of prior period accruals for the FDIC special assessment.

前期費用增加是由多種因素推動的，但部分被 FDIC 特別評估前期應計費用發放的約 3 億美元所抵消。

Let's talk about the drivers of the expense.

讓我們談談費用的驅動因素。

First, in regard to revenue, our markets related businesses of investment banking, investment and brokerage and sales and trading.

首先，就收入而言，我們的市場相關業務包括投資銀行、投資經紀以及銷售和交易。

Those were up 20% year over year.

這些數字年增 20%。

Incentives for the firm were up 15% versus the fourth quarter of '23 and were in large part related to these markets related revenue streams.

與 2023 年第四季相比，該公司的激勵措施增加了 15%，這在很大程度上與這些市場相關的收入流有關。

On investments that we made, we added bankers and advisors across most of our businesses in 2024.

就我們所做的投資而言，我們將於 2024 年在大部分業務中增加銀行家和顧問。

And we also increased investments in our brand with significant sponsorships like the Masters and FIFA to name a few.

我們也增加了對品牌的投資，贊助了大師賽和國際足總等賽事。

And we increased our investments around technology as well as financial centers.

我們增加了對科技和金融中心的投資。

This quarter alone, we added 17 financial centers with 9 of those in our new expansion markets.

光是本季度，我們就新增了 17 個金融中心，其中 9 個位於新擴張市場。

We're a growth company and we continue to invest in our future.

我們是一家成長型公司，我們將繼續投資我們的未來。

As far as headcount goes, we've managed our headcount carefully and we've held it fairly flat through the four quarters of 2024 at around 213,000 people.

就員工人數而言，我們對員工人數進行了謹慎管理，到 2024 年的四個季度，我們的員工人數基本上保持在 213,000 人左右。

Lastly, we incurred additional costs to accelerate work on compliance and controls.

最後，我們為加快合規和控制工作而產生了額外成本。

As you likely saw in late December, the OCC issued a compliance consent order to Bank of America and that's the result of exams done more than a year ago.

正如您可能在 12 月底看到的那樣，OCC 向美國銀行發出了合規同意令，這是一年多前進行的檢查的結果。

This order is about correcting or enhancing certain deficiencies in some aspects of our processes that existed at the time.

該命令旨在糾正或增強我們當時存在的流程某些方面的某些缺陷。

The order doesn't limit any of our growth plans and the order acknowledges we began taking corrective actions before the order was announced.

該命令不會限制我們的任何成長計劃，並且該命令承認我們在該命令宣布之前就開始採取糾正措施。

And as a result of the work in process, we increased our resources substantially in the second half of 2024.

由於正在進行的工作，我們在 2024 年下半年大幅增加了資源。

And those costs are already embedded in our quarterly run rate.

這些成本已經包含在我們的季度運行率中。

Okay.

好的。

Let's go back to expense and how to think about a forward view.

讓我們回到費用以及如何思考未來的觀點。

First, most importantly, we remain focused on growing the company and driving operating leverage.

首先，最重要的是，我們仍然專注於公司發展和提高營運槓桿。

Second, we expect the first quarter to include some normal seasonal elevation, and we believe this amount will be roughly $600 million to $700 million primarily for payroll tax expense.

其次，我們預計第一季將出現一些正常的季節性上漲，我們認為這筆金額將約為 6 億至 7 億美元，主要用於工資稅支出。

So we think $17.6 billion is a good number to expect for Q1 before seasonally declining in Q2.

因此，我們認為在第二季季節性下降之前，第一季 176 億美元是一個不錯的預期數字。

And that's all part of our expectation that expense should be roughly 2% to 3% higher in 2025 compared to 2024.

這就是我們預計 2025 年費用應比 2024 年增加約 2% 至 3% 的一部分。

Let's now move to credit and turn to slide 11 where you can see net charge offs of a little less than $1.5 billion, improving modestly compared to Q3.

現在讓我們轉向信貸並轉向幻燈片 11，您可以看到淨沖銷略低於 15 億美元，與第三季相比略有改善。

That's the fourth quarter.

那是第四季。

Now the net charge offs are around $1.5 billion.

現在淨沖銷額約 15 億美元。

We've seen consumer losses in a pretty stable range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion over those past few quarters.

在過去幾季中，我們看到消費者損失相當穩定地維持在 10 億美元至 11 億美元之間。

And on the commercial side, we saw losses of $359 million, which is down from the third quarter driven by the continued decline in commercial real estate office losses.

在商業方面，由於商業房地產辦公室虧損持續下降，我們看到虧損 3.59 億美元，較第三季下降。

And net charge off ratio this quarter was 54 basis points, down 4 basis points from the third quarter.

本季淨沖銷率為54個基點，較第三季下降4個基點。

We don't see overall net charge offs or the related ratio changing much in 2025.

我們認為 2025 年整體淨沖銷或相關比率不會有太大變化。

Without much change in current GDP or the employment environment, we expect the net charge off ratio to be in a range of 50 basis points to 60 basis points of loans for 2025.

在當前 GDP 或就業環境沒有太大變化的情況下，我們預計 2025 年貸款淨沖銷率將在 50 個基點至 60 個基點的範圍內。

Q4 provision expense was $90 million lower than Q3 at $1.5 billion as reserve levels remain constant.

由於準備金水準保持不變，第四季撥備支出為 15 億美元，比第三季減少 9,000 萬美元。

And as it relates to reserve levels, on a weighted basis, we're reserved for an unemployment rate a little below 5% by the end of 2025 and that compares to the most recent 4.1% rate reported.

由於它與準備金水準相關，在加權的基礎上，我們預計到 2025 年底失業率將略低於 5%，而最新報告的失業率為 4.1%。

On slide 12, we highlight the credit quality metrics for both consumer and commercial portfolios and there's nothing really noteworthy here that I want to highlight on this page.

在投影片 12 上，我們重點介紹了消費者和商業投資組合的信用品質指標，但我想在本頁上強調的沒有什麼真正值得注意的地方。

So let's move to the various lines of business starting on slide 13 with consumer banking, a business made merely with consumer banking, a business made nearly $11 billion or 40% of the company's earnings in 2024.

因此，讓我們從幻燈片 13 開始討論各個業務領域，即消費者銀行業務，該業務僅由消費者銀行業務組成，該業務在 2024 年的收入接近 110 億美元，占公司收入的 40%。

In the fourth quarter, consumer banking generated $10.6 billion in revenue and $2.8 billion in net income.

第四季度，消費者銀行業務收入為 106 億美元，淨利為 28 億美元。

Both grew modestly from the fourth quarter of '23 as the improvement for card and service charges is now being complemented by the growth in NII.

兩者自 23 年第四季度以來均略有增長，因為卡片和服務費用的改善現在得到了國家資訊基礎設施 (NII) 增長的補充。

Consumer banking continued to deliver strong organic growth with high quality accounts and engaged clients and they achieved a new record of client experience scores in December.

消費者銀行業務憑藉高品質的帳戶和活躍的客戶繼續實現強勁的有機成長，並在 12 月創下了客戶體驗得分的新紀錄。

The organic growth activity noted on slide 3 includes more than 200,000 net new checking accounts which now takes us to six years' worth of quarter after quarter growth.

投影片 3 中提到的有機成長活動包括超過 20 萬個淨新支票帳戶，這使我們實現了六年的逐季成長。

And we show another strong period of card openings and investment account growth.

我們也展示了開卡和投資帳戶成長的另一個強勁時期。

Investment balances grew 22% to $518 billion with full year flows of $25 billion and market improvement throughout the year.

投資餘額成長 22%，達到 5,180 億美元，全年流量達 250 億美元，市場全年有所改善。

Expense rose 8% as we continued investments in our business.

由於我們繼續投資業務，費用增加了 8%。

The biggest story in consumer this quarter is deposits because these are the most valuable deposits in the franchise.

本季消費者中最大的故事是存款，因為這些是特許經營中最有價值的存款。

And in the last six months, we believe we've seen the floor begin to form after several periods of slowing decline.

在過去的六個月裡，我們相信，在經歷了幾次緩慢下降的時期之後，我們已經看到底部開始形成。

Consumer banking deposits appear to have bottomed in mid-August at around $928 billion and ended the year at $952 billion on an ending basis.

消費者銀行存款似乎已於 8 月中旬觸底，約 9,280 億美元，年底為 9,520 億美元。

Looking at averages, you can see then the deposits grew $4 billion from the third quarter to $942 billion all while our rate paid declined to 64 basis points.

從平均值來看，您可以看到存款從第三季增加了 40 億美元，達到 9,420 億美元，而我們的利率下降到 64 個基點。

Finally, as you can see in the appendix, page 26, digital adoption and engagement continue to improve and customer satisfaction scores rose to record levels, illustrating our clients’ appreciation of enhanced capabilities from these investments.

最後，正如您在第 26 頁附錄中看到的那樣，數位化採用和參與度不斷提高，客戶滿意度得分上升到創紀錄的水平，這表明我們的客戶對這些投資所增強的能力的讚賞。

On slide 14, we move to wealth management where the business had a very profitable year generating $4.2 billion in earnings from nearly $23 billion in revenue.

在投影片 14 中，我們轉向財富管理業務，這一年該業務利潤豐厚，近 230 億美元的收入創造了 42 億美元的收益。

In 2024 our Merrill Lynch and private bank advisors added another 24,000 net new relationships.

2024 年，我們的美林和私人銀行顧問又淨增加了 24,000 個新關係。

And the professionalism of these teams earned them numerous best in class industry rankings as you can see on slide 27 in the appendix.

這些團隊的專業精神為他們贏得了眾多同類行業最佳排名，如附錄第 27 張投影片所示。

With a continued increase in banking product usage from our investing clients, the diversity of revenue in the wealth business continues to improve.

隨著投資客戶對銀行產品使用的持續增加，財富業務收入的多元化持續改善。

The number of GWIM clients that now have banking products with us continues to grow and at this point, it represents more than 60% of our clients.

現在擁有我們銀行產品的 GWIM 客戶數量持續成長，目前已占我們客戶的 60% 以上。

Importantly, about 30% of our revenue remains in net interest income which complements the fees earned in our advice model and those have also grown.

重要的是，我們約 30% 的收入仍然是淨利息收入，這補充了我們在諮詢模式中賺取的費用，而且這些費用也在增長。

Net income rose 15% from the fourth quarter of '23 to nearly $1.2 billion.

淨利潤較 2023 年第四季成長 15%，達到近 12 億美元。

In the fourth quarter, we reported revenue of $6 billion, growing 15% over the prior year and led by 23% growth in asset management fees.

第四季度，我們的營收為 60 億美元，比上年成長 15%，其中資產管理費成長了 23%。

While expenses were up year over year, they grew slower than revenue, creating the operating leverage in the business.

雖然費用逐年增加，但其成長速度慢於收入，從而創造了業務的營運槓桿。

Business had a 26% pretax margin and generated a strong return on capital of 25%.

業務稅前利潤率為 26%，資本報酬率高達 25%。

Average loans were up 4% driven by growth in custom lending, securities-based lending and a pick up in mortgage lending.

由於客製化貸款、證券貸款的成長和抵押貸款的增加，平均貸款增加了 4%。

Deposits grew 2% from the third quarter and the teams were quite disciplined on pricing of those deposits.

存款較第三季成長了 2%，團隊對這些存款的定價非常嚴格。

Both Merrill and the private bank continue to see strong organic growth.

美林和私人銀行都持續保持強勁的有機成長。

And that helped to produce excellent asset under management flows of $79 billion this year, reflecting a good mix of new client money as well as existing clients putting money to work.

這有助於今年產生 790 億美元的優秀資產管理流量，反映出新客戶資金和現有客戶投入資金的良好組合。

We also want to draw your attention to the continued digital momentum that you'll find on slide 28.

我們還想提請您注意幻燈片 28 中持續的數位化勢頭。

Because for example, three quarters of Merrill bank and brokerage accounts were opened digitally this quarter.

例如，本季美林銀行和經紀帳戶中有四分之三是透過數位方式開設的。

Slide 15 shows the global banking results and this business generated $8.1 billion or 30% of the company's earnings in 2024.

幻燈片 15 顯示了全球銀行業績，該業務在 2024 年創造了 81 億美元，占公司收入的 30%。

And it continues to be the most efficient business in the company at less than 50% efficiency ratio.

它仍然是公司效率最高的業務，效率低於 50%。

The business saw a nice rebound in investment banking fees in 2024 which we expect to continue in 2025.

2024 年，該業務的投資銀行費用出現了良好的反彈，我們預計這種情況將在 2025 年持續下去。

In Q4, global banking produced earnings of $2.1 billion.

第四季度，全球銀行業獲利 21 億美元。

Pretax, preprovision results were flat year over year as improved investment banking fees offset lower NII and higher expense.

稅前、撥備前業績較去年同期持平，因為投資銀行費用的提高抵消了NII的下降和費用的上升。

The total earnings were down 13% year over year driven by higher provision expense that came as a result of prior period reserve release.

由於上期準備金釋放導致撥備費用增加，導致總收益較去年同期下降 13%。

Investment banking fees were $1.7 billion in Q4, growing 44% year over year.

第四季投資銀行費用為 17 億美元，年增 44%。

This was led by mergers and acquisitions.

這是由併購帶動的。

We also saw strength across debt capital markets fees, mostly in leveraged finance and in equity capital markets fees.

我們也看到債務資本市場費用的強勁，主要是槓桿融資和股權資本市場費用。

And we finished the year strong, maintaining our number three investment banking fee position.

我們以強勁的表現結束了這一年，並保持了投資銀行費用排名第三的位置。

The fourth quarter saw strong momentum as the election results provided a lifted sentiment for a more pro business climate and expectations for more deals to be completed.

由於選舉結果提振了人們對更有利的商業環境的信心以及對完成更多交易的預期，第四季度出現了強勁的勢頭。

Expense in this business increased 6% year over year driven by the 13% growth in noninterest income and continued investments in people and technology.

由於非利息收入成長 13% 以及對人員和技術的持續投資，該業務的支出較去年同期成長 6%。

The balance sheet saw good client activity and it was muted somewhat by the strength of the US dollar.

資產負債表上的客戶活動良好，但因美元走強而減弱。

Year over year flatness in global banking loans includes this foreign exchange impact and the $6 billion decline in commercial real estate from paydowns.

全球銀行貸款年持平包括外匯影響以及商業房地產因還款而減少的 60 億美元。

Otherwise, loans in global banking were up 2%.

除此之外，全球銀行業的貸款成長了 2%。

Deposits have been growing for many quarters now with our commercial and corporate clients.

我們的商業和企業客戶的存款已經連續多個季度成長。

And total global banking deposits are now up 10% year over year, reaching a new record.

目前，全球銀行存款總額年增 10%，創下新紀錄。

So we're seeing strong growth across all the categories from our corporate and commercial clients all the way from the larger end to business banking on the lower end and we also saw 10% growth in our international deposits.

因此，我們看到從大型企業和商業客戶到低端企業銀行業務的所有類別都出現了強勁增長，而且我們的國際存款也增加了 10%。

Turning to global markets on slide 16, I want to focus my comments on results excluding DVA as we normally do.

轉向第 16 張投影片上的全球市場，我想像往常一樣將評論重點放在不包括 DVA 的結果上。

Our team continued their impressive streak of strong revenue and earnings performance.

我們的團隊繼續保持著令人印象深刻的強勁收入和獲利表現。

They achieved operating leverage, and they continued to deliver a good return on capital.

他們實現了經營槓桿，並繼續提供良好的資本回報率。

For the year, record sales and trading results of nearly $19 billion grew 7% from 2023 and they've been growing consistently now on a year over year basis for almost three years.

今年，創紀錄的銷售額和交易業績接近 190 億美元，較 2023 年增長 7%，並且近三年來一直在逐年持續增長。

This led to $5.7 billion in full year profits and represents more than 20% of the company's full year results.

這帶來了 57 億美元的全年利潤，占公司全年業績的 20% 以上。

In the fourth quarter, earnings of $955 million grew 30% year over year.

第四季獲利9.55億美元，年增30%。

Revenue and again, this is ex-DVA improved 15% from the fourth quarter of '23 as both sales and trading and investment banking fees improved nicely year over year.

同樣，扣除 DVA 後的收入比 2023 年第四季度增長了 15%，因為銷售、交易和投資銀行費用同比都有良好改善。

Focusing on sales and trading ex-DVA, revenue improved 10% year over year to $4.1 billion.

專注於 DVA 以外的銷售和交易，營收年增 10% 至 41 億美元。

This is the first time we've recorded more than $4 billion in our Q4 results, and it included Q4 records for both FICC and equities.

這是我們第四季業績首次超過 40 億美元，其中包括 FICC 和股票的第四季記錄。

FICC grew 13% while equities improved 6% compared to the fourth quarter '23.

與 2023 年第四季相比，FICC 成長了 13%，而股票則成長了 6%。

FICC benefited from tighter credit spreads as well as increased volatility and interest rates while equities benefited from increased activity around the US election.

FICC 受益於信用利差收窄以及波動性和利率上升，而股票則受益於美國大選期間活動的增加。

Year over year, expenses were up 7% on revenue improvement and our continued investment in the business.

由於收入改善和我們對業務的持續投資，費用年增了 7%。

And then on slide 17, you can see all other with a loss of $407 million in the fourth quarter.

然後在投影片 17 上，您可以看到所有其他公司在第四季虧損 4.07 億美元。

We spoke earlier about the fourth quarter '23 charges for BSBY and the FDIC special assessment charge, their reversal impacts, the comparisons on revenue expense and net income in this segment.

我們之前談到了 23 年第四季的 BSBY 費用和 FDIC 特別評估費用、它們的逆轉影響、該部門收入支出和淨利潤的比較。

Otherwise, there really isn't anything significant to report here.

否則，這裡確實沒有什麼重要的東西可以報告。

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 6% and excluding discrete items in the tax credits related to investments in renewable energy and affordable housing, the effective tax rate would have been approximately 26%.

我們本季的有效稅率為 6%，不包括與再生能源和經濟適用房投資相關的稅收抵免中的離散項目，有效稅率約為 26%。

Looking forward, we expect the tax rate for 2025 to be in a range of 11% to 13%.

展望未來，我們預計2025年的稅率將在11%至13%的範圍內。

And this just includes our expectation for higher expected earnings in 2025 and relatively stable tax credits.

這僅包括我們對 2025 年更高的預期收益和相對穩定的稅收抵免的預期。

Finally, this quarter on page 18, we thought it was important to summarize some of the guidance points we talked through this morning, and we hope you find this page helpful.

最後，在本季度的第 18 頁，我們認為總結我們今天早上討論的一些指導要點很重要，我們希望您發現本頁有幫助。

So in summary, we're looking for strong growth in NII and we'll look to both continue important investments in the franchise and drive operating leverage as we grow throughout the year.

總而言之，我們正在尋求 NII 的強勁成長，我們將尋求繼續對特許經營權進行重要投資，並隨著我們全年的成長而提高營運槓桿。

We aren't expecting much movement around credit based on a pretty solid economic outlook and we remain with a very strong balance sheet with excess capital that we can deploy to grow the business and deliver back to shareholders as appropriate.

基於相當穩健的經濟前景，我們預計信貸不會出現太大變動，並且我們仍然擁有非常強勁的資產負債表，擁有多餘的資本，我們可以利用這些資本來發展業務並酌情返還給股東。

So with that, I'll stop there.

那麼，我就到此為止。

I'll thank everybody and we'll open it up for Q&A.

我會感謝大家，我們將開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

So I wanted to start off, Alastair with maybe unpacking some of the drivers of the NII growth in '25.

所以我想從 Alastair 開始，也許可以解開 25 年 NII 成長的一些驅動因素。

Now how much of the build that you're guiding to is attributable to loan growth versus some rate or repricing tailwinds, runoff of legacy swaps, what have you?

現在，您所指導的建設有多少是由於貸款成長與某些利率或重新定價的順風、遺留掉期的流失，您有什麼？

And does that acceleration in NII you cited for the second half continue into '26 given some of those tailwinds should remain in place beyond '25?

鑑於其中一些順風應該在 25 年後仍然存在，您提到的下半年 NII 的加速是否會持續到 26 年？

Well, first of all, I admire you asking about '26.

好吧，首先，我很欽佩你問起'26'。

I'm always reluctant to talk about the back half of '25.

我總是不願意談論25年的後半段。

So I'll leave '26 for another time, but we don't have a whole lot new, Steven, relative to what we've talked about in the prior quarters.

因此，我將再次離開 26 年，但史蒂文，相對於我們在前幾個季度討論的內容，我們並沒有太多新內容。

We're obviously pointing right now to deposit growth in particular because it's beginning to get back to something more normal.

我們現在顯然特別關注存款成長，因為它開始恢復到更正常的狀態。

There was a period there where deposit balances were declining as people got back to something more normal in their accounts.

有一段時間，隨著人們的帳戶恢復到更正常的狀態，存款餘額正在下降。

But we're highlighting here, consumer found its floor in August.

但我們在這裡強調的是，消費者在八月找到了底線。

Wealth found its floor in July.

財富在七月觸底。

And that's giving some support then as we grow deposits.

當我們增加存款時，這會提供一些支持。

That's helping us with the NII growth.

這有助於我們 NII 的成長。

But that hasn't changed.

但這並沒有改變。

It's just that now we've got successive quarters of growth that we can actually point to.

只是現在我們實際上可以指出連續幾個季度的成長。

The loan growth that you asked about is interesting in that -- there were several quarters there where we were bouncing around flattish on loans.

您所詢問的貸款成長很有趣，因為有幾個季度我們的貸款成長持平。

In Q2, we added $9 billion of loans.

第二季度，我們增加了 90 億美元的貸款。

In Q3, we added $19 billion.

第三季度，我們增加了 190 億美元。

In Q4, we added $20 billion.

第四季度，我們增加了 200 億美元。

So the loan growth has picked up a little bit.

因此貸款成長有所回升。

We can sort of see a little more optimism with clients, a little more activity, a little more demand from clients for loan growth.

我們可以看到客戶的樂觀情緒增加了一些，活動增加了一些，客戶對貸款成長的需求增加了一些。

So those two things, a little more confidence around deposit growth, a little more confidence around loan growth, those obviously compound through the course of the year.

因此，這兩件事，對存款成長的信心增加一點，對貸款成長的信心增加一點，這些在這一年中顯然會復合。

So that will help us in the back half of '25.

所以這將對我們 25 年後半段有所幫助。

And then as you pointed out, we're still a beneficiary of the fixed asset repricing.

然後，正如您所指出的，我們仍然是固定資產重新定價的受益者。

That comes from some of the old loans that are on our books that come off in 2025 when we reprice.

這來自我們帳簿上的一些舊貸款，這些貸款將在 2025 年重新定價時註銷。

And then we've got some cash flow swaps.

然後我們還有一些現金流互換。

That also will mature through the course of the year.

這也將在這一年中成熟。

So that's what leads us to this idea of we think the NII growth will accelerate to 6% to 7% and for the full year.

這就是我們認為全年 NII 成長將加速至 6% 至 7% 的原因。

So a little bit of it -- a little bit faster in the back half of the year we kind of just see that.

所以，在今年下半年，我們就看到了這一點，速度有點快。

But that's what gives us the confidence on NII.

但這正是我們對 NII 充滿信心的原因。

That's great, Alastair.

太棒了，阿拉斯泰爾。

And maybe a follow up for Brian.

也許還有布萊恩的後續行動。

Just at a recent conference, you spoke about the expectation of delivering 200 bps of sustainable operating leverage, laying out an algorithm where revenues grow 4% to 5%, expenses grow 2% to 3%.

就在最近的一次會議上，您談到了實現 200 個基點的可持續營運槓桿的預期，並提出了收入增長 4% 至 5%、支出增長 2% 至 3% 的演算法。

What gives you confidence in that ability to deliver that level of top line growth on a sustainable basis?

是什麼讓您對在可持續的基礎上實現這種水平的收入成長的能力充滿信心？

Just want to unpack that a little bit further.

只是想進一步解開它。

So I think what gives us confidence, we have periods with stable rate environments, a stable economy growing at a slower rate than it is now.

所以我認為，是什麼給了我們信心，我們經歷了穩定的利率環境，穩定的經濟成長速度比現在慢。

And having produced that for five years in a row, I think it was by quarters or something like that.

連續五年生產這種產品，我認為是按季度或類似的方式生產的。

And so it's not something we haven't done.

所以這不是我們沒有做過的事情。

But if you think about the current environment, what's driving is different.

但如果你考慮當前的環境，驅動因素就會有所不同。

Our revenue growth is growing at twice that rate plus and the expense growth is growing close to that number.

我們的收入成長速度是這個數字的兩倍以上，而費用成長也接近這個數字。

But when you get the higher growth rates, especially where it's coming from, wealth management business, markets based business, businesses and investment banking, it attaches a higher sort of instantaneous expense and yet, it still produces even a little bit of operating leverage at a higher growth rate, a good aftertax, a good EPS result, a good net operating income result.

但是，當你獲得更高的成長率時，尤其是來自財富管理業務、基於市場的業務、企業和投資銀行業務時，它會帶來更高的瞬時費用，但它仍然會產生哪怕一點點的營運槓桿更高的成長率、良好的稅後、良好的每股盈餘、良好的營業淨收入結果。

So there's different times, different models.

所以有不同的時間，不同的模式。

This is a model where the revenue is growing faster than it might grow all the time in more normalized environments, but in it -- but the business is coming from those businesses which have the quickest move at relative expense.

在這種模式中，收入的成長速度比在更規範化的環境中一直成長的速度要快，但在這種模式中，業務來自於那些以相對費用最快的速度發展的企業。

Give me an example of that of the two.

給我舉一個關於兩者的例子。

You normalize last year's expense and think about our expectations from '23 to '24 and you look at the growth rate, a big part of the growth rate and expense about 45% to 50% of it is the incentives to the wealth management teammates, which is a good thing.

你將去年的費用標準化，並考慮我們從'23到'24的預期，你看看成長率，成長率和費用的很大一部分，大約45%到50%是對財富管理團隊成員的激勵，這是一件好事。

And so that means revenue is growing and we're taking about half of that in.

因此，這意味著收入正在成長，我們將其中大約一半納入其中。

And if you look at -- there are other pieces added to that.

如果你看一下——還有其他的部分添加到其中。

So Steve, just to simply put, we did it before, we know we can do it.

所以史蒂夫，簡單地說，我們以前做到過，我們知道我們能做到。

You can see underlying setup and as you see NII kick in the consumer business, which is more incrementally profitable because NII, you see that kick in and you see the expense base there flattening out, you see the -- and you see the revenue base of the company broaden out, you'll see that we'll get back to the operating leverage that we expected albeit at may be a little slower year over year growth rate, unless you're going to tell me the market's going to go up 25%, 30% every year.

你可以看到潛在的設置，當你看到NII在消費者業務中發揮作用時，由於NII，消費者業務的利潤會增加，你會看到這種影響，你會看到那裡的費用基礎趨於平緩，你會看到——而且你會看到收入基礎隨著公司規模的擴大，你會發現我們將恢復到我們預期的營運槓桿水平，儘管同比增長率可能會稍慢一些，除非你告訴我市場將會上漲每年25%、30%。

And drive the wealth management.

並帶動財富管理。

When that slows down to more normal growth rate, that will slow down its expense growth rate also.

當增速放緩至更正常的水平時，其費用增長率也會放緩。

Therefore, you'll see opening up at that level.

因此，您會看到該級別的開放。

So it's not something we make up.

所以這不是我們編造的東西。

It's something we put in our operating principles and it's something we have done a lot of quarters, but we have to sort of get the stability in the relative business position.

這是我們納入營運原則的內容，也是我們很多季度都在做的事情，但我們必須保持相對業務地位的穩定。

And Steve, the easiest thing to think about is headcount.

史蒂夫，最容易考慮的事情就是員工人數。

And the other day, our costs are all people and that's been relatively stable.

前幾天，我們的成本都是人，而且相對穩定。

And that will start to flow through because during the course of last year, we basically kept the headcount relatively stable.

這將開始流動，因為在去年期間，我們基本上保持了員工人數的相對穩定。

We had some offbeat expenses that we had to deal with, but now we're sort of settling into that 213,000 level people with a takeout on stuff through operating excellence and putting in on stuff into client coverage, expanding our pipes to draw more marketing, more client coverage, more technology investment.

我們必須處理一些非常規的費用，但現在我們已經適應了 213,000 名員工，透過卓越營運將產品外賣，並將產品納入客戶覆蓋範圍，擴大我們的管道以吸引更多行銷，更多的客戶覆蓋範圍，更多的技術投資。

So we always are shifting expenses and that's how we make that operating leverage happen.

因此，我們總是在轉移費用，這就是我們實現營運槓桿的方式。

No, it's a really good point.

不，這是一個非常好的觀點。

Thanks for the additional headcount nugget, Brian.

感謝布萊恩提供額外的員工人數。

Much appreciated.

非常感謝。

John McDonald, Truist Securities.

約翰麥克唐納，Truist 證券公司。

I wanted to ask as a first question just to follow up to Steve's NII questioning.

我想問的第一個問題只是為了跟進 Steve 的 NII 問題。

Alastair, is the deposit growth in the model that you've laid out the year being used to pay down more expensive funding?

阿拉斯泰爾，您所製定的今年模型中的存款成長是否用於支付更昂貴的資金？

And you've talked about the ability to kind of self fund balance sheet growth.

您談到了為資產負債表成長提供資金的能力。

And then also is there any sense of the yield pick up you get on the swap roll off and replacement that you could give us kind of ballpark on?

然後，您是否可以從掉期滾存和替換中獲得收益回升的感覺，您可以給我們一些大概的信息嗎？

John, before Alastair starts, welcome back from the cold to be able to be back in coverage and covering our company.

約翰，在阿拉斯泰爾開始之前，歡迎您從寒冷中回來，能夠回到報道並報道我們公司。

And it's always good to know that you're going to consistently ask about NII, but I'll turn it to Alastair to give you the.

知道您會不斷詢問有關 NII 的問題總是件好事，但我會將其交給 Alastair，讓您了解。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

You got to be a typecast.

你一定是個典型的人。

There you go.

就這樣吧。

So I think your first question was if we get the deposit growth we anticipate, do we think we'll use some of that to pay off some of the higher cost liabilities on the balance sheet?

因此，我認為你的第一個問題是，如果我們獲得預期的存款成長，我們是否認為我們會用其中的一些來償還資產負債表上一些成本較高的負債？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

That's consistent with what we said in prior calls.

這與我們在之前的電話中所說的一致。

We've done that.

我們已經做到了。

If you look at the other institutional CDs, you'll see they came down by another $7 billion this quarter.

如果你看看其他機構 CD，你會發現它們本季又減少了 70 億美元。

So as we grow the really high-quality parts of the deposit franchise, that allows us to take those down, and that's one of the things that's going to help grow net interest yield on an ongoing basis.

因此，當我們發展存款業務中真正高品質的部分時，這使我們能夠將其減少，這是有助於持續成長淨利息收益率的因素之一。

It's not NII accretive necessarily, but it helps us with net interest yield.

它不一定會增加NII，但它有助於我們提高淨利息收益率。

So that remains a part of the strategy.

所以這仍然是戰略的一部分。

John, you'll see that continue.

約翰，你會看到這種情況繼續下去。

As it relates to the cash flow swaps and how those reprice, no, we typically don't lay out the table of what we've got on and how it reprices over time, but it is embedded in our guidance.

由於它與現金流量互換以及這些互換如何重新定價有關，所以我們通常不會列出我們所擁有的內容以及隨著時間的推移如何重新定價的表格，但它已嵌入我們的指導中。

So each quarter, when I give you guidance for the next quarter, that will incorporate what we know is coming off on the cash flow swaps and how that does.

因此，每個季度，當我為下個季度提供指導時，都會包含我們所知的現金流掉期的情況及其運作方式。

The other fixed rate assets, you can kind of see in our supplemental information just based on the originations of resi mortgage, the originations of auto loans.

其他固定利率資產，您可以在我們的補充資料中看到，這些資產只是基於 Resi 抵押貸款的起源、汽車貸款的起源。

And every time obviously, we're booking new residential mortgage, and old residential mortgages are coming off, we're picking up 250 basis points every time there.

顯然，每當我們預訂新的住宅抵押貸款，而舊的住宅抵押貸款正在減少時，我們每次都會上漲 250 個基點。

So you can see that happening each time you pick up the supplemental.

因此，每次您拿起補充材料時，您都可以看到這種情況發生。

We just don't tend to disclose the cash flow swaps.

我們只是不傾向於揭露現金流量掉期。

So I will do that for you each quarter as we go through the year.

因此，在這一年中，我每個季度都會為您做這件事。

And then just to switch topics so that Brian doesn't make fun of me, on

然後只是為了轉移話題，這樣布萊恩就不會取笑我了

--

--

That's all right, John.

沒關係，約翰。

I'm just kidding.

我只是在開玩笑。

Now in terms of capital, how are you thinking about the CET1 target and the buffer that feels appropriate in this environment?

現在就資本而言，您如何看待 CET1 目標以及在這種環境下感覺合適的緩衝？

And how does that play into your thinking on buybacks?

這對您的回購想法有何影響？

So I think we bought $3.5 billion this quarter.

所以我認為我們本季購買了 35 億美元。

We'd expect to continue to step back to the highest levels.

我們預計將繼續回落到最高水準。

We're in the money, we paid a dividend, we invest in the growth of the business and then we use the rest of buybacks stock.

我們有錢了，我們支付了股息，我們投資於業務成長，然後我們使用其餘的回購股票。

That was $3.5 billion in the past couple of quarters.

過去幾季這一數字為 35 億美元。

So at this earnings rate, that seems a level that makes sense.

因此，按照這個收益率，這似乎是一個合理的水平。

We're 11.9%.

我們是 11.9%。

We think that a 10.7% requirement a buffer of 11.50%, that's 11.2%.

我們認為 10.7% 的要求需要 11.50% 的緩衝，即 11.2%。

Obviously, there's going to be some sort of changes in the cap rules and we'll have to settle it after we see that.

顯然，上限規則將會發生某種變化，我們必須在看到變化後解決它。

And we hope some relief in the volatility of the CCAR outcomes because remember that last year, we jumped quite a bit without a lot of correlation to the actual risk of the company and stuff.

我們希望 CCAR 結果的波動性有所緩解，因為請記住，去年我們的股價上漲了很多，但與公司和其他東西的實際風險沒有太多相關性。

So we'll -- hopefully, we'll see that settle back in.

所以我們希望我們能看到這種情況重新回歸。

That -- does that leave you towards a mid-teens ROTCE target, Brian, as NIM normalizes, and capital normalizes?

布萊恩，隨著 NIM 正常化和資本正常化，這是否會讓你朝著 15 歲左右的 ROTCE 目標邁進？

Yeah.

是的。

I think the capital normalization will be more sort of holding that capital grow through it and not have to retain more capital for growth frankly if there's math that helps us favor it.

我認為資本正常化將更多是讓資本透過它成長，坦白說，如果有數學幫助我們支持它，則不必保留更多資本用於成長。

But the NIM is probably more critical to move.

但 NIM 的行動可能更為重要。

The yield from sub to this quarter 2% this quarter to 2.10% plus at the end of the fourth quarter and then moving from there, that as you know, is all that flows the bottom line and we'll continue to drive the ROTCE back up as -- if you look back in the areas where there was any -- front end Fed funds was 2%.

收益率從本季度的 2% 下降到第四季度末的 2.10% 以上，然後從那裡開始，如您所知，這就是底線，我們將繼續推動 ROTCE 回升如果你回顧一下那些有過前端聯邦基金的領域，則上漲了2%。

We are running a couple of hundred basis points more.

我們的利率還上漲了幾百個基點。

It's the huge zero interest deposit base, especially in consumer and lowest deposit base that provides a lot of leverage.

巨大的零利率存款基礎，尤其是消費者和最低的存款基礎，提供了很大的槓桿作用。

So that would be a driver.

所以這將是一個司機。

A capital return would help some.

資本回報會對某些人有幫助。

But I think that will be more complex based on all the different rules and what happens.

但我認為，根據所有不同的規則和發生的情況，情況會更加複雜。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

格倫·肖爾，Evercore。

I have a relative question on trading.

我有一個關於交易的相關問題。

I know how impossible it is to predict really the environment.

我知道真正預測環境是多麼不可能。

But you took share in investment banking, and you've invested and gotten benefits from that.

但你參與了投資銀行業務，並且進行了投資並從中受益。

You have invested in trading.

您已投資於交易。

So maybe it's a weird question because you just put up record revenues in FICC and equities as you mentioned, but when we see good environments like this, some companies tend to really blow out numbers.

所以也許這是一個奇怪的問題，因為正如你所提到的，你剛剛在固定收益和股票中創下了創紀錄的收入，但當我們看到這樣的良好環境時，一些公司往往會真正實現數字爆發。

You guys have zero loss days.

你們有零損失的日子。

You don't tend to blow out numbers.

你不會傾向於誇大數字。

Are there -- is that a comment about gaps in the business mix that you'd like to invest more and fill in?

是否有這樣的評論：您希望加大投資並填補業務組合中的空白？

Is that a comment about risk tolerance?

這是關於風險承受能力的評論嗎？

I'm just curious how to think about it on a relative basis.

我只是好奇如何在相對的基礎上思考它。

I think you have to back up if Jim DeMare and the team are driving the business 11 straight quarters of year over year growth.

我認為，如果 Jim DeMare 和他的團隊正在推動業務連續 11 個季度同比增長，你就必須支持這一點。

Frankly, I'm not sure any other company comes close to matching that.

坦白說，我不確定是否有其他公司能與之媲美。

So other people have more volatile up and down as you're prospecting.

因此，當您進行勘探時，其他人的波動性更大。

But over a course of time, we just want this to keep walking up the ladder and they've done a great job of doing that continuing to drive the business.

但隨著時間的推移，我們只是希望它繼續走上階梯，他們在這方面做得很好，並繼續推動業務發展。

In fact, if you look at year over year comparisons, because your point was obviously something we asked ourselves and we looked at the last 48 hours here, 24 hours, basically a lot of people in the same range as opposed to fourth quarter where some people's last year's fourth quarter was down a lot from the prior years, ours was more stable.

事實上，如果你看逐年比較，因為你的觀點顯然是我們問自己的，我們查看了過去 48 小時、24 小時，基本上很多人處於同一範圍，而第四季度則有一些人去年第第四季比往年下降了很多，我們的比較穩定。

And I think last year's fourth quarter was one of the highest fourth quarters we ever had.

我認為去年第四季是我們有史以來最高的第四季之一。

And then we put another 10% plus growth on top of it.

然後我們在此基礎上再增加 10% 以上的成長。

So think of us as being that business that just is imperturbable, it just keeps calmly growing forward and driving itself up without having maybe some of that more traditional trading house up and down.

因此，我們可以將我們視為一家平靜的企業，它只是保持冷靜地向前發展並推動自身發展，而不會出現一些更傳統的貿易公司的起起落落。

Not because we're not good at, they're very good at it.

不是因為我們不擅長，而是他們非常擅長。

Not because they aren't gaining share because frankly, if you look at the last three or four years, they could continue to get share.

並不是因為他們沒有獲得市場份額，而是坦白說，如果你看看過去三、四年，他們可能會繼續獲得市場份額。

It's just we have a little less volatility and principal activity on a given day.

只是我們在某一天的波動性和主要活動較少。

This might be a simple follow up.

這可能是個簡單的後續行動。

But on your comments when talking about credit and reserves, your reserve for unemployment are a little bit below 5%, you're at 4.1% now.

但根據您在談論信貸和準備金時的評論，您的失業準備金略低於 5%，現在為 4.1%。

I think that's the way this cycle is played out.

我認為這就是這個週期的結束方式。

I think that's typical BofA conservatism.

我認為這是典型的美國銀行保守主義。

I think that's the accounting.

我認為這就是會計。

But I guess my question is your reserves will be fine, your P&L will be fine.

但我想我的問題是你的儲備金會很好，你的損益也會很好。

But if that plays out, does that completely change how we're thinking about the pick up in consumer spending, overall loan growth, things like that.

但如果這種情況發生，是否會完全改變我們對消費者支出回升、整體貸款成長等議題的看法。

But that is we're talking about just the next four quarters.

但這是我們談論的只是接下來的四個季度。

Yeah.

是的。

This is where you got -- Glenn, you've got to kind of get away from reserve setting methodologies versus what we really believe is from our research team and your research team -- your economics research team would tell you.

這就是你所得到的——格倫，你必須擺脫儲備設定方法論，而不是我們真正相信的來自我們的研究團隊和你的研究團隊——你的經濟研究團隊會告訴你的。

Our core assumption is the, yeah, GDP grows in the med -- low 2s this year.

我們的核心假設是，是的，今年 GDP 成長率為中低值 2 左右。

The unemployment stays between 4.01% and I think maybe gets up to 4.03% or something like that.

失業率保持在 4.01% 之間，我認為可能會達到 4.03% 或類似的水平。

So this is literally a weighting of a base case which would match that in an adverse case and some other cases just in the way we build methodologies for the reserves because you're reserving for an uncertain future.

因此，這實際上是基本情況的權重，它與不利情況和其他一些情況下的權重相匹配，就像我們為儲備建立方法論的方式一樣，因為您是為不確定的未來進行儲備。

And that's how it has it.

事情就是這樣。

So they'll take it as a thought that we really believe we're going to see 4.8% unemployment in the next four quarters.

因此，他們會認為我們確實相信未來四個季度失業率將達到 4.8%。

And so hopefully that answers.

希望這能得到答案。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

My first question just as a follow up, Brian, I think I heard you say in response to John's question that you think the exit rate net interest margin will be 2.1%.

我的第一個問題只是作為後續問題，布萊恩，我想我聽到你在回答約翰的問題時說，你認為退出率淨利差將為 2.1%。

I think in 4Q '25.

我想是在 25 年第四季。

I just wanted to confirm that I heard that correctly.

我只是想確認我聽到的是否正確。

And underneath that Alastair, could you talk about the repricing or down deposit beta dynamics that you would assume to get to that net interest margin?

在阿拉斯泰爾的下面，您能談談您認為達到淨利差的重新定價或降低存款貝塔動態嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So the simple answer is you stated what I stated to John, but I'll let Alastair answer the second part of the question.

所以簡單的答案是你說出了我對約翰所說的話，但我會讓阿拉斯泰爾回答問題的第二部分。

So generally, Erika, we're obviously following the Fed rate cuts, just repricing things accordingly.

艾莉卡，總的來說，我們顯然是在跟隨聯準會降息，只是相應地重新定價。

There are, I think two things going on right now that are interesting.

我認為現在發生的兩件事很有趣。

The first one is generally speaking in the commercial businesses with the higher end deposits, we're typically following the rate cuts and just going down 25 basis points.

第一個是一般而言，在擁有較高端存款的商業企業中，我們通常會跟隨降息，只下降 25 個基點。

Obviously at the other extreme on the noninterest bearing, there's not -- there's nothing we can do with that.

顯然，在無息方面的另一個極端，我們對此無能為力。

It's already noninterest bearing, but we're following the fed cuts, removing the rates with discipline accordingly.

它已經是無息的，但我們正在跟隨聯準會的降息，相應地有紀律地取消利率。

And then the second thing that's going on is there was some rotation going on over the course of the past two years where there have been a lot of things going from noninterest bearing into interest bearing across the different parts of our businesses.

然後發生的第二件事是，在過去的兩年裡，我們業務的不同部分發生了一些輪換，很多事情從無息變成了有息。

That has slowed significantly.

這已顯著放緩。

So you look at, for example, consumer noninterest bearing, that seems to have bottomed out in February of last year and then noninterest bearing balances are growing now again.

例如，你看一下，無息消費者餘額似乎已在去年 2 月觸底，然後無息餘額現在再次增長。

So that rotation is slowing.

所以旋轉速度正在減慢。

Also both of those things are factoring into our guidance.

這兩件事也都納入我們的指導中。

So, Erika, if you look at -- and the interesting part that's going on in the last couple of quarters just from a deposit behavior, if you look at our accounts that were here prior to the pandemic to now, you saw a runup and then you saw a little depletion and it's basically stabilized at a level.

所以，埃里卡，如果你看看過去幾個季度發生的有趣的部分，只是從存款行為來看，如果你看看我們在大流行之前到現在的帳戶，你會看到增長和然後你會看到一點消耗，並且基本上穩定在一個水平。

But if you look at it in the aggregate, all the depletion is actually driven by the highest balance accounts like $250 million, $500 million average balances.

但如果你從整體來看，所有的消耗實際上都是由最高餘額帳戶驅動的，例如 2.5 億美元、5 億美元的平均餘額。

And the others are still multiples of where they were before.

其他人仍然是以前的數倍。

That's been going on and they've been growing and they're growing 9% year over year in the lower balance accounts as people make more money and store more cash and have cash flow.

這種情況一直在發生，而且一直在增長，隨著人們賺更多的錢、儲存更多的現金並擁有現金流，較低餘額帳戶的餘額同比增長 9%。

So if you think about what happened is our average balance accounts that was around 7,000, went up to 11,000 and now it's basically stable at 9,000 checking accounts.

因此，如果你想想我們的平均餘額帳戶大約是 7,000 個，後來增加到 11,000 個，現在基本上穩定在 9,000 個支票帳戶。

And that's kind of and you can grow out from there.

就這樣，你可以從那裡成長。

That is very valuable because checking is either zero or very low interest.

這是非常有價值的，因為支票利息要么為零，要么非常低。

And so it's where the growth we see coming as deposits grow in consumer that helps produce irrespective of the market dynamics of the higher at the market price deposits where you see the impact of the deposit franchise coming through.

因此，隨著消費者存款的成長，我們看到的成長將有助於產生較高市場價格存款的市場動態，您可以看到存款特許經營權的影響。

So consumer being down 1 basis point quarter to quarter doesn't sound like a lot, but you've got to remember a lot of their stuff is it doesn't really price but are they growing that stuff?

因此，消費者每季下降 1 個基點聽起來並不是很多，但你必須記住他們的很多東西並不是真正定價，而是他們在種植這些東西嗎？

And each $10 billion of growth in that area is very, very important to us.

該領域每成長 100 億美元對我們來說都非常非常重要。

And just as a follow up, both you and Alastair have during -- over the course of 2024 started introducing the concept of a normalized net interest margin of 2.3%.

作為後續行動，您和阿拉斯泰爾在 2024 年期間開始引入 2.3% 的標準化淨利差的概念。

With a neutral rate, maybe around 4%, does -- can BofA get there more quickly, particularly given the deposit dynamics that you mentioned, Brian?

布萊恩，如果採用中性利率，也許是 4% 左右，美國銀行能否更快地實現這一目標，特別是考慮到你提到的存款動態？

I guess I'm trying to -- we're just trying to figure out you guys did introduce the concept of normalized NIM.

我想我正在嘗試——我們只是想弄清楚你們確實引入了標準化 NIM 的概念。

So I'm not trying to seek out guidance in terms of '26 or '27 or whatever you had had to have told us that for a reason and I'm just wondering if the forward curve or what the dynamics are, that would lay out the path to achieve that over the medium term.

因此，我並不是想尋求“26”或“27”方面的指導，或者您必須告訴我們的任何內容，這是有原因的，我只是想知道未來曲線或動態是什麼，這將奠定找出在中期內實現此目標的途徑。

If the Fed funds rate stays higher, we'll get there faster.

如果聯邦基金利率維持在較高水平，我們就會更快實現這一目標。

So simple.

就這麼簡單。

Because that's obvious because the sheer volume of low interest.

因為這是顯而易見的，因為利息的絕對數量很低。

So if we are sitting here in the October, I think in when we're talking about that, the amount of rate cuts was still, I don't know how many more, three or four more than we've had so far.

因此，如果我們在 10 月坐在這裡，我認為當我們談論這一點時，降息幅度仍然如此，我不知道比迄今為止的降息幅度多了多少，三到四次。

Now we're down to one.

現在我們只剩下一個了。

So as it stays at a higher nominal rate, you'll see this adjustment come through.

因此，當名目利率保持在較高水平時，您將看到此調整的完成。

There are two caveats there.

這裡有兩個警告。

One is we're carrying a larger markets balance sheet, which by definition is a little less robust in that area.

一是我們擁有更大的市場資產負債表，從定義來看，該資產負債表在該領域的穩健性稍差。

And then secondly, we're carrying a lot of low -- a lot of excess liquidity just because we're running that down as Alastair said.

其次，我們持有大量低流動性——大量過剩流動性，只是因為我們正在像阿拉斯泰爾所說的那樣減少流動性。

So during, you have the buildup after -- during the pandemic, we built up a lot of term financing and running off.

因此，在大流行期間，我們累積了大量定期融資並流失。

So all that will help us, but we -- it will go faster than we'd otherwise say mid last year to now just because the nominal rate environment stays higher.

因此，所有這些都會對我們有所幫助，但我們——它會比我們去年中期至今所說的更快，因為名目利率環境仍然較高。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行證券公司。

So you kind of upped your NII guide in the next say several quarters.

因此，您在接下來的幾個季度中提高了 NII 指南。

And this was the first question asked, how much is short rates, how much is long rates, but most importantly, how much of this is a little bit more steepness in the yield curve?

這是提出的第一個問題，短期利率是多少，長期利率是多少，但最重要的是，其中有多少是殖利率曲線陡峭一點？

And what part of the yield curve is most important for that?

殖利率曲線的哪一部分對此最重要？

And what's the sensitivity for every 10 basis points of additional steepness that adds, how much to NII or something along those lines?

每增加 10 個基點的陡度的敏感度是多少，NII 或類似的東西會增加多少？

So, Mike, it's still the short end that drives probably 90% of the sensitivity around NII because if you think about it, we just don't have enough fixed rate assets repricing to really drive NII.

所以，麥克，它仍然是空頭推動了 NII 周圍 90% 的敏感性，因為如果你仔細想想，我們只是沒有足夠的固定利率資產重新定價來真正推動 NII。

In any given quarter, you've got a few billion of resi mortgage, a few billion of CVL repricing.

在任何特定季度，您都會擁有數十億的 Resi 抵押貸款、數十億的 CVL 重新定價。

Let's call that $10 billion to $12 billion.

我們稱之為 100 億至 120 億美元。

You've got $8 billion to $10 billion of ultimate maturity securities repricing.

最終到期證券的重新定價金額為 80 億至 100 億美元。

But that's in the context of a $3.3 trillion balance sheet.

但這是在 3.3 兆美元資產負債表的背景下進行的。

So it's still the short end that drives most of the NII.

因此，驅動大部分國家資訊基礎設施的仍然是空頭。

So when Brian says, obviously, we're helped by the fact that there might be two or three rate cuts less than there were previously, that's obviously helpful.

因此，當布萊恩說，很明顯，降息幅度可能比以前少兩到三次，這一事實對我們有所幫助，這顯然是有幫助的。

But the big thing is always -- for us in terms of year over year growth, it's always about deposit growth and loan growth.

但最重要的是——對我們來說，就同比增長而言，總是與存款成長和貸款成長有關。

The fixed rate asset repricing is it turbocharges a little bit at the margin, but it's about deposit and loan growth and those are the important ones.

固定利率資產重新定價是在邊際上稍微增加一點，但它與存款和貸款成長有關，而這些是重要的。

And getting back to growth now in each of our businesses gives us a stronger foundation leading into 2025 than we had this year when we still had at the beginning of the year consumer coming down, wealth coming down.

現在我們每項業務恢復成長為我們進入 2025 年奠定了比今年更堅實的基礎，當時我們在年初仍然面臨消費者下降、財富下降的情況。

Now that they've found a floor, it's slightly different.

現在他們找到了地板，情況略有不同。

And then a big picture question, Brian.

然後是一個大問題，布萊恩。

With the new incoming administration in a different tone as it relates to bank regulation, in fact, the incoming Treasury Secretary said he would like to reinvigorate banks.

事實上，由於新政府在銀行監管問題上採取了不同的語氣，即將上任的財政部長表示他希望重振銀行。

So if you were to talk to them and maybe they're listening, what would you like to see changed as it relates to bank regulation?

因此，如果您要與他們交談並且也許他們正在傾聽，那麼您希望看到與銀行監管相關的哪些變化？

And then a specific question, I know it's going to be tough.

然後是一個具體問題，我知道這會很困難。

If you give me any sense, it would be great.

如果你能給我任何意義，那就太好了。

But your CET1ratio, if you didn't have gold plating, if you had a level playing field, if you took out some of the extraneous operating risk penalty, how much would your CET1 ratio increase in that sort of world?

但是你的 CET1 比率，如果你沒有鍍金，如果你有一個公平的競爭環境，如果你去掉一些無關的操作風險懲罰，在那種世界裡你的 CET1 比率會增加多少？

So Mike, I think your second question brings up, the places that our industry and our company have been advocating heavily is that we've had a little bit of a situation from prepandemic to post pandemic where you've seen capital requirement --required capital go up nominally, 10%, 15%, 20% and not a big change in the risk of the companies.

所以麥克，我認為你提出的第二個問題，我們的行業和我們公司一直大力倡導的地方是，從大流行前到大流行後，我們遇到了一些情況，你看到了資本要求——需要資本名義上增加了10%、15%、20%，但公司的風險並沒有太大變化。

And that's just all the mathematics behind all the counting, right?

這就是所有計數背後的所有數學原理，對吧？

And so we're saying, whoa, whoa, wait, we aren't indexing the GCIB.

所以我們說，哇，哇，等等，我們沒有為 GCIB 建立索引。

So therefore, our relative size economy isn't growing as fast as it was intended to be indexed on that basis isn't there.

因此，我們的相對規模經濟成長速度並沒有達到預期的指數化速度，這一點並不存在。

You've had, as you said, sort of an accretion of sort of methodologies that keep pulling more in and including the stress test volatility that we've all pointed out to him.

正如您所說，您已經累積了一些方法論，這些方法論不斷吸引更多人，包括我們都向他指出的壓力測試波動性。

And the last point you make it is if you look at this concept of Basel III making equivalent around the world is completely off in a different world because we're using advanced -- excuse me, the rest of the world is using advanced, we're using standardized gold plating or whatever you want to talk about, it's apples and oranges.

最後一點是，如果你看看巴塞爾 III 的概念，在世界範圍內製定同等的標準，那是完全不同的，因為我們正在使用先進的技術——對不起，世界其他地方正在使用先進的技術，我們正在使用標準化鍍金或任何你想談論的東西，它是蘋果和橙子。

And so I would never think that we'd go -- if we ever got to Europe, our numbers would be probably a big -- a lot, lot higher, but that's not going to happen because just we're going to have -- we as a society will have a more conservatively capitalized industry.

所以我永遠不會想到我們會去——如果我們到達歐洲，我們的人數可能會很大——很多很多，但這不會發生，因為我們將會—— - 我們作為一個社會將擁有一個資本更加保守的行業。

So I think it's simply put if they were to take into account our clear statement, our clear advocacy about -- as an industry about index the GCIB, take the volatility out of CCAR, how can it change so much in the relatively same scenario?

所以我認為簡單地說，如果他們考慮到我們的明確聲明、我們明確的主張——作為一個關於GCIB 指數的行業，消除CCAR 的波動性，那麼在相對相同的情況下它怎麼會發生如此大的變化呢？

And also behind the scenes, all the changes in accounting, not a counting, but accounting for risk, you're increasing capital requirements and without an explicit decision to do so.

而且在幕後，會計上的所有變化，不是計數，而是風險會計，你正在增加資本要求，但沒有明確的決定這樣做。

And we think that that would be worth probably a 100 basis points or so if you really sat back and thought about it how do you get there.

我們認為，如果你真的坐下來思考如何實現這一目標，那麼這可能值得 100 個基點左右。

Mike, think about our volatility and CCAR outcomes, I think we went from -- we went up by, I don't know, 50 basis points, 70 basis points last year, whatever it was.

麥克，想想我們的波動性和 CCAR 結果，我認為我們去年上漲了 50 個基點、70 個基點，我不知道，無論是什麼。

The risk of the company didn't change.

公司的風險沒有改變。

As a matter of fact, it probably went down honestly.

事實上，它可能是誠實地下降的。

And so that's what we're working on.

這就是我們正在努力的方向。

So we want to see that.

所以我們希望看到這一點。

And then in the day-to-day supervision, we just want to see people focused on safety and soundness and good management and making sure there's the regulatory agencies cooperate on things like BSA and AML and things that everybody's all over the place and the industry is trying to sort it out in the middle.

然後在日常監管中，我們只是希望看到人們專注於安全、穩健和良好的管理，並確保監管機構在 BSA 和 AML 以及每個地方和行業中的每個人的事情上進行合作正試圖在中間解決它。

And we've given them precise points to look at and we'll see what happens.

我們已經給了他們精確的關注點，我們將看看會發生什麼。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，海港環球證券公司。

Maybe just dialing in on the deposit growth.

也許只是關注存款成長。

You clearly have been outperforming the peer group but maybe just want to focus on consumer for a second.

顯然，您的表現優於同行，但也許只是想暫時專注於消費者。

You generated $1.1 million of net new checking accounts, which seems best among peers.

您創造了 110 萬美元的淨新支票帳戶，這在同行中似乎是最好的。

I think that's showing up in better consumer deposit growth in 4Q.

我認為這體現在第四季消費者存款成長的改善。

So what do you think you're doing differently that's generating that kind of consistent success in adding new accounts?

那麼，您認為您採取了哪些不同的做法才能在新增帳戶方面取得持續成功？

At the end of the day, our brand is beste.

歸根結底，我們的品牌是最好的。

In terms of our scores, our customer service capabilities are scoring at the highest they've ever come.

就我們的得分而言，我們的客戶服務能力得分達到了歷史最高水準。

The fairness of our account structures of transparency, the digital capabilities.

我們的帳戶結構的公平性、透明度、數位能力。

It's just winning in the market.

它只是在市場上獲勝。

It's -- in 1 billion net new checking accounts and not 92%, 90%, whatever they are primary.

這是——在 10 億個淨新支票帳戶中，而不是 92%、90%，無論它們是主要帳戶。

They start with an average balance of $2,000 to $3,000, they move to $6,000, $7,000 over the course of a six months.

他們的平均餘額從 2,000 美元到 3,000 美元開始，在六個月的時間內達到 6,000 美元、7,000 美元。

This is just a great job done by Dean Athanasia and Aron Levine and Holly O'Neill that run this business force just continue to drive it.

這是 Dean Athanasia、Aron Levine 和 Holly O'Neill 所做的一項偉大工作，他們管理著這支業務力量，並繼續推動它。

Then on top of that, we've layered in ways with various business lines to help generate accounts.

除此之外，我們也透過各種業務線進行分層，以協助產生帳戶。

So our work we do with companies to offer our best products and services as a benefit to their employees helps us generate some extra growth.

因此，我們與公司合作，為他們的員工提供最好的產品和服務，幫助我們實現額外的成長。

Our ability to do business around the college campuses, which is not huge for this quarter's growth.

我們在大學校園周圍開展業務的能力，對於本季的成長來說並不是很大。

But because we are generating the amount of openings at twice the rate of young people exist in society for our customers five years ago.

但因為我們為客戶創造的職缺數量是五年前社會中年輕人數量的兩倍。

Five years later, the people are outworking and they're great customers.

五年後，人們的工作能力越來越強，也成為了很棒的客戶。

So it's a whole bunch of things.

所以這是一大堆事情。

And so and it's -- but it's relentless and sustainable.

所以，它是——但它是無情且可持續的。

And yet we still have lots of ways to grow and we weren't in.

然而，我們仍然有很多成長的方式，但我們沒有參與其中。

We just entered a lot of markets over the last five years.

過去五年我們剛剛進入了很多市場。

Denver, Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Milwaukee now, Lexington, et cetera.

丹佛、克里夫蘭、哥倫布、辛辛那提、印第安納波利斯、明尼亞波利斯、現在的密爾瓦基、列剋星敦等。

That's one way.

這是一種方法。

And then if you think about in the wealth management teammates and Katy Knox and Lindsay and Eric do a great job there, but we have a lot of room to go where we continue to outfit those clients with a full range of services of Bank of America and even Merrill Edge has a lot going on there.

然後，如果你想到財富管理團隊的隊友，凱蒂·諾克斯、林賽和埃里克在這方面做得很好，但我們還有很大的空間可以繼續為這些客戶提供美國銀行的全方位服務甚至 Merrill Edge 也發生了很多事情。

So there's a fair amount of deposits that come from our Merrill Edge originations, which are 300,000 accounts year over year and those are all $100,000 starting accounts, not $3,000.

因此，有相當數量的存款來自我們的 Merrill Edge 起源，每年有 30 萬個帳戶，而且這些都是 10 萬美元的起始帳戶，而不是 3,000 美元。

And then maybe pivoting on the expense side, the guidance of 2% to 3% growth.

然後可能會轉向費用方面，指導 2% 至 3% 的成長。

It's kind of a pretty decent step down from what we saw in the back half of the year.

與我們今年下半年看到的情況相比，這是一個相當不錯的下降。

So what areas do you see sort of slowing on the expense side given the -- your optimism on organic growth?

那麼，考慮到您對有機成長的樂觀態度，您認為哪些領域的支出會放緩？

How do you kind of decelerate the expense growth in '25?

您如何減緩 25 年的費用成長？

But I think three key things.

但我認為三個關鍵的事情。

One is, if we get the year over year growth in the markets related businesses, in the high double digits or 20% growth, that expense guidance might be a little tight.

一是，如果市場相關業務的年成長率達到高兩位數或 20%，那麼費用指導可能會有點緊張。

But again, you would cheer for that.

但同樣，你會為此歡呼。

So this is assuming a 5% to 6% growth in the GD -- in S&P type of numbers.

因此，這是假設 GD 增長 5% 到 6%（標準普爾類型的數字）。

So that takes some of the growth pressure off.

這樣可以減輕一些成長壓力。

The aggregate numbers are locked in at a high level and growing from there.

總數被鎖定在一個較高的水平，並從那裡開始增長。

And then the second thing is frankly just getting a lot of this work behind us and some of the remediation and lookbacks and things are all completed and behind us.

坦白說，第二件事是我們已經完成了很多工作，一些補救和回顧以及事情都已經完成並在我們身後。

And then, third is, is just keeping the headcount and getting -- continuing to focus on OpEx and generating capabilities.

第三，就是維持員工數量並持續專注於營運支出和生成能力。

And so as we stepped into some of these national brand campaigns around some of the major properties we've affiliated with most recently yesterday, women's US soccer, including men's and women's teams.

因此，當我們昨天圍繞著我們最近附屬的一些主要資產開展一些國家品牌活動時，美國女子足球，包括男子和女子足球隊。

FIFA, the Masters, these are all things we're paying by just driving other efficiencies.

國際足總、大師賽，這些都是我們提高其他效率所付出的代價。

So from a company that for years had gone down in expenses, the idea of growing 2% to 3% is not that hard a concept albeit the growth in the back half of this year was a bit driven by the incentive explosion that happened because the explosion of markets.

因此，對於一家多年來支出一直在下降的公司來說，成長 2% 到 3% 的想法並不是那麼困難，儘管今年下半年的成長有點受到激勵爆炸的推動，因為市場的爆炸式增長。

When they took off, our teammates did a great job of capturing revenue and incentives won.

當他們起飛時，我們的隊友在獲取收入和贏得激勵方面做得非常出色。

Vivek Juneja, JPMorgan.

維韋克·朱尼賈 (Vivek Juneja)，摩根大通。

I have two separate questions.

我有兩個單獨的問題。

First one with expenses.

第一個是有費用的。

Just want to clarify to the last question, Brian, what you said.

只是想澄清最後一個問題，布萊恩，你說了什麼。

So what are you assuming for incentive comp in '25 in your guidance?

那麼，在您的指導中，您對 25 年的激勵補償有何假設？

Is it flat year on year?

年比持平嗎？

Are you assuming some increase?

你假設會增加嗎？

Any color on that?

那上面有什麼顏色嗎？

It would grow with the market stuff.

它會隨著市場的變化而成長。

But we have other efficiencies that would offset some of that growth.

但我們還有其他效率可以抵銷部分成長。

Second one, I guess I can't leave you disappointed.

第二個，我想我不會讓你失望的。

It must given you and Alastair love NII.

它一定給了你和阿拉斯泰爾愛NII。

So let me ask a little netty question that.

那麼讓我問一個小問題。

BSBY hedges, since those started to accrete this quarter, how much was the benefit this quarter?

BSBY 對沖，自從本季開始增加以來，本季的收益是多少？

And what is the cadence of that as we look out over '25?

當我們展望 25 年時，這種節奏是如何的？

So we think about the BSBY accreting back into the P&L kind of like the same way we do with the other cash flow swaps effects.

因此，我們認為 BSBY 會重新計入損益表，就像我們處理其他現金流掉期效應一樣。

So I'd say a couple of hundred this quarter.

所以我想說這個季度有幾百個。

And then when we give you the guidance with all the cash flow swaps, it's all included in there.

然後，當我們為您提供所有現金流量互換的指導時，所有這些都包含在其中。

So when I say that we think this year, Q1 should be up modestly, that is after the $250 million of day count adjustment and it's including budget growth, loan growth and all the cash flow swap activity.

因此，當我說我們認為今年第一季應該小幅成長時，這是在 2.5 億美元的日數調整之後，其中包括預算成長、貸款成長和所有現金流互換活動。

So that $200 million -- couple of hundred million, that probably and given that it's $1.6 billion to be recovered over a couple of years, that should continue at this pace all through '25 then, right, at least that

因此，2 億美元——幾億美元，可能是這樣，考慮到幾年內要收回 16 億美元，那麼整個 25 年應該會以這種速度持續下去，對吧，至少

--

--

Most of it will take place in 2025.

大部分將在 2025 年進行。

It sort of burns back into the P&L and then there'll be a little bit in 2026 and a tiny bit in '27.

它會重新回到損益表中，然後在 2026 年會有一點點，在 27 年會有一點點。

And then -- sorry if I may another one, Brian, to your comment on capital, you said you want to keep a 50-basis point buffer, your CET1 with 11.9%, 50 basis points, 11.2%.

然後，對不起，布萊恩，對於你對資本的評論，你說你想保留 50 個基點的緩衝，你的 CET1 為 11.9%，50 個基點，11.2%。

Is there a plan to go down to the 11.2% at some point and therefore step up your buybacks or what's the thinking there?

是否有計劃在某個時候降至 11.2%，從而加大回購力度，或有什麼想法？

I wouldn't assume that we're going to take it down through a lot buybacks in your modeling.

我不認為我們會透過在你的模型中進行大量回購來將其降低。

It's going to be there to support growth.

它將在那裡支持增長。

But Vivek, the simple answer is we've got to get a set of rules that could be moving around on us and once we get them, then we can give you better guidance on that.

但是維韋克，簡單的答案是我們必須制定一套可以在我們身上運行的規則，一旦我們制定了這些規則，我們就可以為您提供更好的指導。

Because it's just hard to estimate when you could have more excess.

因為很難估計何時可以擁有更多多餘的東西。

If they do -- what I -- we as industry expect them to do and then we have a different conversation right now.

如果他們做了——我——我們作為行業期望他們做的事情，那麼我們現在就進行不同的對話。

We'll probably grow a part of that away through the good work of our team in terms of loan growth and in the markets business, we continue to invest in that business.

透過我們團隊在貸款成長和市場業務方面的出色工作，我們可能會增加其中的一部分，我們將繼續投資於該業務。

So you -- so don't expect us to deplete that ratio down quickly.

所以你——所以不要指望我們會很快降低這個比率。

But I'm holding my right to change that if we get the capital level straight out of the new rules.

但如果我們直接從新規則中獲得資本水平，我有權改變這一點。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Just if there was some relief on capital, are there areas that you would incrementally lean into.

如果資本有所緩解，是否有一些領域是您可以逐漸傾斜的。

Obviously, without knowing all the rules, it's hard to know for sure.

顯然，在不了解所有規則的情況下，很難確定。

But just are there areas that you're like if we had that extra 100 basis points or 50 basis points or 150 basis points, you would do a little bit more in some areas than you have been?

但您是否認為，如果我們額外升息 100 個基點、50 個基點或 150 個基點，您會在某些領域做得比以前多一點嗎？

None of our businesses are constrained because of capital.

我們的業務都不會因為資金而受到限制。

So if the consumer team had more credit card loan growth that was based on what they think the right risk balance is and getting paid for it, et cetera, that's got oddity, saw us just grow balances last quarter, the auto loans or whatever.

因此，如果消費者團隊的信用卡貸款增長更多是基於他們認為正確的風險平衡並為此獲得報酬，等等，那就很奇怪了，我們上個季度的餘額、汽車貸款或其他什麼都增加了。

And so I think it -- I don't see that wealth management, obviously not much of our RWA user in a lot of ways.

所以我認為——我沒有看到財富管理，顯然我們的 RWA 用戶在很多方面都沒有太多。

And then the real question is, it's in a global banking business again, if they're getting strong loan growth, there's nothing that we're slowing them down.

真正的問題是，這又是在全球銀行業務中，如果他們的貸款成長強勁，我們就不會放慢他們的速度。

In the markets business, we continue to drive the capital up.

在市場業務方面，我們持續推動資本成長。

Being the lowest return on equity business, we have to be a little careful that we don't do it.

作為股本回報率最低的企業，我們必須小心不要這樣做。

But Jim and the team have done a great job.

但吉姆和他的團隊做得很好。

And we basically -- their balance sheet is $300 billion large than it was four or five years ago.

基本上，他們的資產負債表比四、五年前增加了 3,000 億美元。

And they've grown their -- we've grown through the GCIBs as you know from 2.5% to 3%.

如你所知，他們已經透過 GCIB 實現了成長，從 2.5% 成長到了 3%。

And it will keep probably growing through those that we use some.

透過我們使用的一些產品，它可能會繼續成長。

But it's not like we'd say you can't have it because of capital.

但並不是說因為有資本你就不能擁有它。

It's really just but in the company and keeping a balance in the overall management of the risk and where we want to take risk and how we do it.

這實際上只是在公司內部，在風險的整體管理以及我​​們想要承擔風險的地方以及我們如何承擔風險方面保持平衡。

And then frankly it's, they come up with business plans that we've never had to say we don't have enough capital to do that.

坦白說，他們提出了商業計劃，我們從來沒有說過我們沒有足夠的資金來做到這一點。

That's not the issue.

那不是問題。

And I guess so like depending on how the capital rules are tweaked, it could make some businesses just more profitable, right?

我想，根據資本規則的調整方式，它可能會讓一些企業更有利可圖，對嗎？

So even though you have enough capital to put to those businesses, if the returns aren't making your hurdles, maybe it could with some tweaks, and I've heard some of your peers talk about like equity prime brokerage as one area that could have higher returns of capital requirements to reduce.

因此，即使你有足夠的資本投入這些業務，如果回報不會成為你的障礙，也許經過一些調整就可以，而且我聽到你的一些同行談論像股票主要經紀業務這樣的領域有較高回報的資本要求降低。

And again, we don't know exactly how it's going to play out.

再說一遍，我們並不確切知道事情會如何發展。

But do you envision any kind of changes to how you evaluate businesses?

但您認為您評估企業的方式會發生任何變化嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

I'll take it.

我要買它。

It won't change how we evaluate businesses because regulatory capital is only one of the ways we look at it.

它不會改變我們評估企業的方式，因為監管資本只是我們看待它的方式之一。

We look at the risk and sort of markets based capital and other things.

我們關注風險和基於市場的資本和其他因素。

But it could take the sword and for a lack of a better term, a little bit of the penalty to some of these businesses down some.

但它可能會採取劍，並且由於缺乏更好的術語，對其中一些企業的一點懲罰會減少一些。

But you also have to remember the ROA and the mix of businesses and there's another side to this because we have 6% tangible common equity, and we got to produce returns on that, and low ROA businesses affect that.

但你也必須記住 ROA 和業務組合，這還有另一面，因為我們擁有 6% 的有形普通股，我們必須以此產生回報，而低 ROA 業務會影響這一點。

So there are things that will favor it under regulatory capital, but not favor it under sort of market-based disciplines.

因此，有些事情在監管資本下有利於它，但在基於市場的紀律下則不利於它。

So we work through all that.

所以我們會解決所有這些問題。

I don't expect to see change in how we do it.

我預計我們的做法不會改變。

But I also don't think that any of our businesses are constrained because we're not having capital.

但我也不認為我們的任何業務會因為我們沒有資本而受到限制。

So if Jim and the team have a chance to go prime brokerage and make it work, in our company, we could have other businesses which have very high ROAs to make up for it and some other companies, it would be more important for them because they don't have those other businesses in relative size of the markets business.

因此，如果吉姆和他的團隊有機會進入大宗經紀業務並使其發揮作用，在我們公司，我們可以擁有其他具有非常高ROA 的業務來彌補它和其他一些公司，這對他們來說會更重要，因為他們沒有市場業務相對規模的其他業務。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

Brian, hey, we've talked about this in the past and also with you Alastair, obviously, credit quality for you and your peers has been -- is very strong and in view of the rate cycle we just came through where we went from 0% to plus 5% at the short end of the curve and really never saw a surge in charge offs due to rates going up that much.

布萊恩，嘿，我們過去也和你討論過這個問題，阿拉斯泰爾，顯然，你和你的同行的信用質量非常好，而且考慮到我們剛剛經歷的利率週期在曲線的短端，利率為0% 到+ 5%，並且實際上從未見過由於利率上漲那麼多而導致沖銷激增。

When you guys look at credit quality, is it due to better underwriting standards or sticking to your underwriting standards or is it your customers themselves?

當你們審視信用品質時，是因為更好的承保標準還是堅持你的承保標準，還是你的客戶本身？

Because we all went through the pandemic are just much stronger balance sheets, more resilient.

因為我們都經歷過這場大流行，所以我們的資產負債表更強大，更有彈性。

Well, what would you account for so far that this credit cycle has been fairly benign for you and your peers?

那麼，到目前為止，您認為這個信貸週期對您和您的同行來說相當良性的原因是什麼？

Yeah, look, it's definitely been benign.

是的，看，這絕對是良性的。

I think one thing that hasn't changed, our underwriting strategy, our standards, our risk appetite, our client selection, those really haven't changed, Gerard.

我認為有一件事沒有改變，我們的核保策略、我們的標準、我們的風險偏好、我們的客戶選擇，這些確實沒有改變，傑拉德。

But I think you're right.

但我認為你是對的。

Look, things are obviously different in 2019. 2019, we didn't have this rate structure.

看，2019 年情況明顯不同。

So that's a little bit harder at the margin for the consumer.

因此，對於消費者來說，這在邊際上有點困難。

At the same time, consumer is stronger.

同時，消費者的消費能力也更加強勁。

I mean we can see that in the deposit balances.

我的意思是我們可以在存款餘額中看到這一點。

We can see it right now in the consumer spending in the 3% to 4% range.

我們現在可以在 3% 到 4% 範圍內的消費者支出中看到這一點。

We can see it in the balances being elevated over five years ago.

我們可以從五年前的餘額上升中看到這一點。

We can see it in the unemployment level, the income level, home prices, wealth effects.

我們可以從失業率、所得水準、房價、財富效應中看到這一點。

So look, 2019 was freakishly low in terms of like a historical norm.

所以看，2019 年的歷史水準低得離譜。

But things have settled in here.

但事情已經解決了。

We sort of said a year ago, we thought they would plateau right around where we are.

一年前我們說過，我們認為它們會在我們所處的位置附近趨於穩定。

We're glad to see three or four quarters now of some stability.

我們很高興看到現在有三、四個季度保持穩定。

It feels pretty good on the consumer side.

從消費者角度來說，感覺還是不錯的。

It feels very good still on the commercial side.

從商業角度來看，感覺還是非常好的。

So that's why we're sort of laying out.

這就是我們進行佈局的原因。

Our expectation is unless there's a big change in the economy, we think we're going to be around in this 50 basis points to 60 basis points over the course of the next year or so.

我們的預期是，除非經濟發生重大變化，否則我們認為在未來一年左右的時間裡，利率將維持在 50 到 60 個基點左右。

Very good.

非常好。

And then as a follow up, I share your optimism on the outlook for the economy and many of your peers in the capital markets business, we -- I think many investors do, what are the risks?

作為後續行動，我分享了您對經濟前景的樂觀態度以及資本市場業務中的許多同行的看法，我認為許多投資者也是如此，風險是什麼？

I mean when you guys sit down at night and everything is going well, what do you talk about as what curveballs do we have to watch out for?

我的意思是，當你們晚上坐下來，一切進展順利時，你們會談論我們需要注意哪些曲線球？

Is it a rate environment that changes quickly without anybody really expecting it?

這是一個在沒有人真正預料到的情況下迅速變化的利率環境嗎？

Is it complacency?

是自滿嗎？

What are some of the risks that you guys think about?

你們認為有哪些風險？

Well, you have wars and hopefully a resolution of one that's just happening as we speak, but we have wars, you have trade wars, et cetera that bothers.

好吧，你們有戰爭，希望在我們說話的時候就正在發生戰爭，但我們有戰爭，你們有貿易戰，等等令人煩惱的事情。

You have the availability of resource around the world whether it's physical resource or human resource to do work and shortages of that because unemployment rates in a lot of countries are pretty low.

世界各地都有可用的資源，無論是物質資源還是人力資源來開展工作，但由於許多國家的失業率相當低，因此資源短缺。

And so can you get the productivity to keep growing the economy?

那麼你能獲得維持經濟成長的生產力嗎？

But -- and all the usual things, but if you think about it, Gerard, just to be clear, we've seen a 15 year run from after the pandemic -- excuse me, after the financial crisis -- global financial crisis or more year run where you've seen constantly improving credit statistics that then interrupted in the pandemic a little bit and then because the stimulus dropped down again and now it's back to normal but that's a long-term trend.

但是 - 以及所有常見的事情，但是如果你想一想，杰拉德，請澄清一下，我們已經看到了大流行之後的 15 年 - 對不起，在金融危機之後 - 全球金融危機或在過去的一年裡，你會看到信貸統計數據不斷改善，然後在大流行中略有中斷，然後因為刺激措施再次下降，現在又恢復正常，但這是一個長期趨勢。

So it's not complacency.

所以這不是自滿。

It's just that how much leverage is building up in the system that there will be difficulties with either at the household level, at the corporate -- at the company level.

只是係統中的槓桿作用有多大，無論是在家庭層面或公司層級都會遇到困難。

And then a lot of it is outside the banking system.

其中很多都在銀行體系之外。

So we worry about that and how it reverberates into the banking system because just leverage that exists out there that higher levels than we traditionally have given in the banking system still will affect us because that means if people can't carry it, there'll be restructurings of companies and bankruptcies and things like that, which are going on today, but they're going on a level which is very manageable.

因此，我們擔心這一點以及它如何對銀行系統產生影響，因為存在的槓桿水平比我們傳統上在銀行系統中給出的水平更高，仍然會影響我們，因為這意味著如果人們無法承受它，就會有今天正在發生的公司重組和破產之類的事情，但它們正在進行的水平是非常可控的。

So we worry about all those things and the federal debt levels and the pinch that will come out of state and federal spending if they have to -- they need to slow down the growth.

因此，我們擔心所有這些事情以及聯邦債務水平，以及州和聯邦支出（如果他們需要放慢成長速度）將帶來的壓力。

All those things are factors which we think about and the way we manage the company is to run it so that given those events, we can continue to operate.

所有這些事情都是我們考慮的因素，我們管理公司的方式就是經營它，以便在發生這些事件的情況下，我們可以繼續運作。

And that's why the stress testing quite frankly is a good thing because it makes you think about the prey to horribles happening even though they don't happen and make sure that you are positioned to survive them.

這就是為什麼坦白說，壓力測試是一件好事，因為它讓你思考可怕的事情的發生，即使它們沒有發生，並確保你能夠倖存下來。

And if you said to the question, Alastair answered, one of the big impacts across time here in the bank industry is because the top 30 institutions are doing stress testing, which assumes that you're wrong in your underwriting and the economy goes from 4% unemployment to 10% unemployment overnight.

如果你回答這個問題，阿拉斯泰爾回答說，銀行業長期以來的重大影響之一是因為排名前 30 的機構正在進行壓力測試，該測試假設你的承保是錯誤的，並且經濟從 4一夜之間失業率升至10%。

Think about the impact of that on bringing the underwriting narrower so that you can afford the capital that you have to hold for that outcome even though that outcome hasn't occurred.

考慮一下這對縮小承保範圍的影響，以便您有能力承擔為該結果而必須持有的資本，即使該結果尚未發生。

That's going to cross a big portion of the bank industry.

這將涉及銀行業的很大一部分。

So I just think it's more fundamentally structured, but leverage is going to be the issue.

所以我認為它的結構更為根本，但槓桿將成為一個問題。

It always is and you're always trying to find the p, where is the excess leverage and how do you make sure you're avoiding it?

情況總是如此，您總是試圖找到 p，過度槓桿在哪裡以及如何確保避免它？

And Alastair, I liked your comment about when you're talking about the 17 financial centers that you're a growth company.

阿拉斯泰爾，當您談論您是一家成長型公司的 17 個金融中心時，我喜歡您的評論。

Hopefully, that will be reflected in the PE shortly.

希望這很快就會反映在 PE 中。

Well, there's plenty of room on the PE multiple, but I'll let you work on that, Gerard.

好吧，PE 倍數上有足夠的空間，但我會讓你解決這個問題，傑拉德。

You work on the PE part.

你負責PE部分。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

So Brian, here's the question, small business optimism is up, and you've got a flat curve at the front end and so I'm kind of wondering how that feeds into C&I demand.

所以布萊恩，問題是，小企業的樂觀情緒正在上升，前端有一條平坦的曲線，所以我有點想知道這如何滿足工商業需求。

And I'm wondering what your conversations with not only small business, mid business corporate, it'd be really interesting to hear how you think they're preparing for this change.

我想知道您不僅與小型企業、中型企業進行了哪些對話，了解您認為他們如何為這項變革做準備會非常有趣。

Sure, Betsy.

當然，貝特西。

So small business, small, medium sized businesses.

所以小企業，中小型企業。

So in our business banking category, in our -- we have small business banking, we have global commercial banking, think middle market.

因此，在我們的商業銀行業務類別中，我們有小型企業銀行業務，我們有全球商業銀行業務，想想中間市場。

Across that environment, the draw rates on lines of credit and stuff are still much lower than they were in a different prepandemic and things like that.

在這種環境下，信貸額度和其他東西的提款率仍然比不同的大流行前和類似情況低得多。

And to your point, the higher interest rate environment affects them most quickly and importantly, because they use lines of credit to do things, buy a piece of equipment, hire some more people and the payroll dynamics of that, whatever it is.

就你的觀點而言，較高的利率環境對他們的影響最為迅速和重要，因為他們使用信貸額度來做事，購買一台設備，僱用更多人員以及工資動態，無論是什麼。

And they might permanently finance that, but immediately, they use lines and the draw rates, you have 400 basis points over where it normally runs so to speak, which means that they're drawing at less rate and that probably means they're doing a little less.

他們可能會永久提供資金，但他們會立即使用額度和提款率，可以說比正常情況高出 400 個基點，這意味著他們的提款率較低，這可能意味著他們正在做少一點。

And so we haven't seen that move a lot.

所以我們還沒有看到這種變化太多。

That's a two-come in terms of loan growth as Alastair mentioned earlier, but their optimism has changed.

正如阿拉斯泰爾之前提到的，就貸款成長而言，這是一個雙贏的局面，但他們的樂觀態度已經改變。

And you saw that, and that's really around -- the other thing is when you talk to our small business customers and we made these points to people in Washington is the over the regulation, the impact, the hard -- it's hard to do business, hard to get things done, the rules coming out, they don't have the big staffs that we do, what other companies do that can deal with all that.

你看到了這一點，這確實存在——另一件事是，當你與我們的小企業客戶交談時，我們向華盛頓的人們提出了這些觀點，那就是監管、影響和困難——做生意很難，很難把事情做好，規則出來了，他們沒有像我們這樣的大量員工，其他公司所做的可以處理這一切。

And so it all confuses, slows them down, it makes them hesitate.

所以這一切都讓他們感到困惑、減慢他們的速度、讓他們猶豫不決。

Their belief is that that's changed and that's why you see the optimism come up and then we got to translate that optimism into activity.

他們的信念是情況已經改變，這就是為什麼你會看到樂觀情緒出現，然後我們必須將這種樂觀情緒轉化為行動。

And then you'll see the loan growth come.

然後你就會看到貸款成長。

But I think it was a -- it's a quick change and it's based on their view of how easy it will be for them to get things done both at the state and federal level.

但我認為這是一個快速的變化，這是基於他們對在州和聯邦層級完成工作有多麼容易的看法。

Yeah.

是的。

I'm just looking at you are -- Bank of America is one of the few that actually has small business loan growth year on year.

我只是看看你們——美國銀行是少數幾家小企業貸款實際上同比增長的銀行之一。

And I know a lot of that came a couple of quarters ago.

我知道其中很多都是幾個季度前發生的。

But with this very sharp increase in small business optimism, I would think that could potentially be something you could benefit from.

但隨著小型企業樂觀情緒的急劇上升，我認為這可能是您可以從中受益的東西。

No question.

毫無疑問。

And so -- but the real dollar volume of benefit is going to be -- the small business loans I think grew -- have been growing quarter after quarter, year over year for a good chunk of time now.

因此，我認為小型企業貸款有所增長，但實際的收益金額將是，在很長一段時間內，小型企業貸款一直在逐季、逐年增長。

And we feel good about that, but the dollar volume change in the middle market business from a little more drawing than the lines consistent with what people have done before is a lot of loan balances.

我們對此感覺良好，但中間市場業務的美元交易量發生了變化，從比人們以前所做的一致的線多一點開始，就是大量的貸款餘額。

There's $200 billion of balances in that business.

該業務有 2000 億美元的餘額。

So it doesn't take a lot to kick it up.

所以不需要花太多時間就能把它踢起來。

So I think, look, we're the largest lender to small business and those customers tell us they're optimistic and they see forward and the issues where I did -- I couldn't get enough people and that's something we've got to be careful of.

所以我認為，看，我們是小企業最大的貸款人，那些客戶告訴我們他們很樂觀，他們看到了未來以及我所做的問題 - 我無法找到足夠的人員，這就是我們所擁有的要小心。

The regulations were hurting me and then the interest rates.

這些法規傷害了我，然後是利率。

And the interest rates coming down a little bit helps them.

利率的稍微下降對他們有幫助。

And the other two -- the strong belief is that will be more readily available.

另外兩個——我們堅信這將更容易獲得。

And it does appear that there are no further questions at this time.

目前看來確實沒有其他問題了。

I would now like to turn it back to Brian for any additional or closing remarks.

我現在想將其轉回給布萊恩，以獲取任何補充或結束語。

Sure.

當然。

Well, thanks everyone for joining us today.

好的，感謝大家今天加入我們。

We finished 2024 with good momentum.

我們以良好的勢頭結束了 2024 年。

As we enter '25, the economy is resilient and healthy.

當我們進入 25 世紀時，經濟充滿活力且健康。

The consumers continue to spend a solid and healthy rate.

消費者持續保持穩健且健康的消費率。

The employment levels are strong.

就業水平強勁。

The asset quality we can see is very good.

我們看到的資產品質是非常好的。

Our loans have now grown for several quarters in a row here.

我們的貸款現已連續幾季成長。

Deposit have grown for six straight quarters.

存款連續六個季度成長。

The rate environment continues to be constructive.

利率環境持續具有建設性。

And then the added value in the last couple of quarters of the fee businesses have come on strong given the extra market activity.

鑑於額外的市場活動，過去幾季收費業務的附加價值表現強勁。

All that sets us up well for 2025.

所有這些都為我們在 2025 年做好了準備。

Thank you for your support.

感謝您的支持。

We look forward to talking to you next time.

我們期待下次與您交談。

This does conclude today's program.

今天的節目到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect at any time and have a wonderful afternoon.

您可以隨時斷開連接，度過一個美好的下午。