美國銀行 (BAC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Bank of America earnings announcement. At this time, I'd like to turn the program over to Lee McEntire. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎收看美國銀行的收益公告。這個時候，我想把程序交給Lee McEntire。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Catherine. Good morning. Welcome. Thank you for joining the call to review our first quarter results. I trust everybody has had a chance to review our earnings release documents. They are available, including the earnings presentation that we'll be referring to during this call, on the Investor Relations section of the bankofamerica.com website.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。早上好。歡迎。感謝您加入審查我們第一季度業績的電話會議。我相信每個人都有機會查看我們的收益發布文件。它們可以在 bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分獲得，包括我們將在本次電話會議中提到的收益介紹。

I'm going to turn the call over to CEO, Brian Moynihan; and Alastair Borthwick, our CFO, to discuss the quarter. But before I do, let me just remind you that we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures during this call. Our forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that might cause those actual results to materially differ from those expectations are detailed in our earnings materials and the SEC filings that are available on our website.

我要把電話轉給 CEO Brian Moynihan；和我們的首席財務官 Alastair Borthwick 討論本季度。但在此之前，讓我提醒您，我們可能會在本次電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述並參考非 GAAP 財務指標。我們的前瞻性陳述基於管理層當前的預期和假設，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致這些實際結果與這些預期存在重大差異的因素在我們的收益材料和我們網站上提供的 SEC 文件中有詳細說明。

Information about the non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to U.S. GAAP, can also be found in our earnings materials, and those are available on our website.

有關非 GAAP 財務措施的信息，包括與美國 GAAP 的調節，也可以在我們的收益材料中找到，這些信息可以在我們的網站上找到。

So with that, we'll turn it over to Brian. Thank you.

因此，我們將把它交給布賴恩。謝謝。

Good morning, and thank all of you for joining us. I'm starting on Slide 2 of the materials. Your company produced one of its highest core EPS earnings numbers in a challenged operating environment in the first quarter. Simply put, we navigate that environment well. The preparedness and strength of Bank of America and the trust of our clients reflects a decade-long responsible growth model and relationship nature of our franchise. During quarter 1, importantly, organic growth engine continued to perform.

早上好，感謝大家加入我們。我從材料的幻燈片 2 開始。在充滿挑戰的經營環境中，貴公司第一季度的核心 EPS 收益數據創下歷史新高。簡而言之，我們很好地駕馭了那個環境。美國銀行的準備和實力以及我們客戶的信任反映了我們特許經營長達十年的負責任的增長模式和關係性質。在第一季度，重要的是，有機增長引擎繼續發揮作用。

Let me first summarize some points, and I'll turn it over to Alastair to take you through the details of the quarter. If you go to Slide 2 of the materials, Bank of America delivered strong earnings, growing EPS 18% over first quarter '22. Every business segment performed well. We grew clients and accounts organically and at a strong pace. We delivered our seventh straight quarter of operating leverage, led by a 13% year-over-year revenue growth. We further strengthened our balance sheet with our CET1 ratio increasing to 11.4%.

讓我先總結一些要點，然後我會把它交給阿拉斯泰爾來帶你了解本季度的細節。如果您查看材料的幻燈片 2，美國銀行實現了強勁的收益，每股收益比 22 年第一季度增長了 18%。各業務板塊表現良好。我們以強勁的速度有機地增加了客戶和賬戶。在收入同比增長 13% 的帶動下，我們連續第七個季度實現了經營槓桿。我們進一步加強了我們的資產負債表，我們的 CET1 比率增加到 11.4%。

Regulatory capital ended the highest nominal level in our history to $184 billion. We maintained strong liquidity. We ended the quarter with more than $900 billion in global liquidity sources. We are in good returns for you as our shareholders with a return on tangible common equity of 17% and 107 basis points return on average assets. Tangible book value per share grew 9% year-over-year. We did this as the economy slowed. And remember, our research team continues to predict a shallow recession that will occur beginning in the quarter 3 of 2023.

監管資本達到我們歷史上最高的名義水平，達到 1840 億美元。我們保持了強勁的流動性。本季度末，我們擁有超過 9000 億美元的全球流動資金來源。作為我們的股東，我們為您帶來了豐厚的回報，有形普通股回報率為 17%，平均資產回報率為 107 個基點。每股有形賬面價值同比增長 9%。我們在經濟放緩時這樣做了。請記住，我們的研究團隊繼續預測 2023 年第 3 季度開始將出現輕微衰退。

It's interesting, if we look at our consumer behavior, payments by consumer continues to drive the U.S. economy. We've seen debit and credit card spending at about 6% year-over-year growth pace, a little slower but still healthy. But remember, card spending represents less than a quarter of how consumers pay for things out of their accounts at Bank of America. Overall payments from our customers' accounts across all sources were up 9% year-over-year for March as a month. Year-to-date, they're up about 8% for the quarter.

有趣的是，如果我們看看我們的消費者行為，消費者的支付繼續推動美國經濟。我們看到借記卡和信用卡支出的同比增長率約為 6%，雖然略慢但仍然健康。但請記住，信用卡消費只佔消費者使用美國銀行賬戶支付費用的不到四分之一。 3 月份，來自所有來源的客戶賬戶的總付款額同比增長 9%。年初至今，他們本季度上漲了約 8%。

After slowing the back half of '22 a bit, we saw the pace of payments pick back up in quarter 1, especially in the latter parts of the quarter. Consumers' financial positions remains generally healthy. They're employed with generally higher wages, continue to have strong account balances and have good access to credit.

在稍微放慢了 22 年的後半部分之後，我們看到付款速度在第一季度回升，尤其是在本季度的後半部分。消費者的財務狀況總體上保持健康。他們的工資普遍較高，賬戶餘額繼續保持強勁，並有良好的信貸渠道。

As you think through all the tightening actions of the Fed, the flows to alternative yielding assets, investments and the disruption of the past quarter, our deposits continue to perform well, ending the quarter at $1.9 trillion. If you think about it, that's about the same balance we had in mid-October of 2022. So we've seen these balances stabilize and remain 34% above they were prior to the pandemic.

考慮到美聯儲的所有緊縮行動、流向另類收益資產、投資以及上個季度的混亂，我們的存款繼續表現良好，本季度末達到 1.9 萬億美元。如果你仔細想想，這與我們在 2022 年 10 月中旬的餘額大致相同。因此，我們已經看到這些餘額穩定下來，並且比大流行之前高出 34%。

The team has managed well during these periods of remaining focused on the things we can control to drive value through our franchise. I thank them for a very strong quarter, near-record earnings with strong returns.

在這段時間裡，團隊管理得很好，專注於我們可以控制的事情，以通過我們的特許經營來推動價值。我感謝他們帶來了一個非常強勁的季度，接近創紀錄的收益和強勁的回報。

Let me turn the call over to Alastair to walk through the details of the quarter.

讓我把電話轉給阿拉斯泰爾來了解一下這個季度的細節。

Thank you, Brian. And I'll pick up on Slide 3, where we list some of the more detailed highlights of the quarter. And then on Slide 4, we present the summary income statement. So I'm going to refer to both of these together.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我將在幻燈片 3 上繼續，我們在其中列出了本季度的一些更詳細的亮點。然後在幻燈片 4 上，我們展示了損益表摘要。因此，我將同時提及這兩個問題。

As Brian mentioned, for the quarter, we generated $8.2 billion of net income, and that resulted in $0.94 per diluted share. Our revenue grew 13%, and that was led by a 25% improvement in net interest income, coupled with strong 9% growth in sales and trading results, excluding DVA.

正如 Brian 提到的那樣，本季度我們產生了 82 億美元的淨收入，這導致每股攤薄收益 0.94 美元。我們的收入增長了 13%，這得益於淨利息收入增長 25%，以及銷售和交易業績強勁增長 9%（不包括 DVA）。

Our noninterest revenue was strong despite 3 headwinds. First, we had lower service charges as commercial clients paid lower fees for treasury services, since they now receive higher earned rates on balances. And obviously, that allows us to invest those funds to earn NII. On Consumer, we had lower NSF, insufficient funds and overdraft fees as a result of our policy changes announced in late 2021.

儘管有 3 個不利因素，但我們的非利息收入仍然強勁。首先，我們的服務費用較低，因為商業客戶支付較低的資金服務費用，因為他們現在收到更高的餘額收益率。顯然，這使我們能夠投資這些資金來賺取 NII。在消費者方面，由於我們在 2021 年底宣布的政策變更，我們的 NSF 較低、資金不足和透支費用。

Second, we had lower asset management fees, and that just reflects the lower equity market levels and fixed income market levels. And third, investment banking fees were lower, just reflecting the continuation of sluggish industry activity and reduced fee pools. Now all that said, despite these headwinds, each of the fee categories saw modest improvement from the fourth quarter levels.

其次，我們的資產管理費較低，這恰恰反映了較低的股票市場水平和固定收益市場水平。第三，投資銀行費用較低，反映了行業活動持續低迷和費用池減少。話雖如此，儘管存在這些不利因素，但每個費用類別都比第四季度的水平略有改善。

Asset quality remained strong and provision expense for the quarter was $931 million. That consisted of $807 million of net charge-offs and $124 million of reserve build. And that reserve build compares to a reserve release in the first quarter '22 of $362 million. Our charge-off rate was 32 basis points and still well below the fourth quarter of '19 when our pre-pandemic rate was 39 basis points. And remember, 2019 was a multi-decade low. So credit obviously remains quite strong.

資產質量依然強勁，本季度撥備費用為 9.31 億美元。其中包括 8.07 億美元的淨註銷和 1.24 億美元的儲備建設。與 22 年第一季度 3.62 億美元的儲備金釋放相比，該儲備金增加了。我們的註銷率為 32 個基點，仍遠低於 19 年第四季度大流行前的 39 個基點。請記住，2019 年是數十年來的最低點。因此，信用顯然仍然相當強勁。

I want to make one other point on Slide 4, and that is simply to note that pretax pre-provision income grew 27% year-over-year compared to reported net income growth of 15%. So let's turn to the balance sheet. That starts on Slide 5. And you can see during the quarter, our balance sheet increased $144 billion to $3.195 trillion. Brian noted our liquidity levels. At the end of the period, those rose to more than $900 billion from December 31. That's $23 billion higher, and it remains $324 billion above our pre-pandemic level in the fourth quarter of '19.

我想在幻燈片 4 上再說一點，就是要注意，與報告的 15% 的淨收入增長相比，稅前撥備前收入同比增長 27%。因此，讓我們轉向資產負債表。從幻燈片 5 開始。您可以看到，在本季度，我們的資產負債表增加了 1,440 億美元，達到 3.195 萬億美元。布賴恩注意到我們的流動性水平。到該期間結束時，這些數字從 12 月 31 日開始上升到 9000 多億美元。這比 19 年第四季度的大流行前水平高出 230 億美元，仍然高出 3240 億美元。

Shareholders' equity increased $7 billion from the fourth quarter as earnings were only partially offset by capital distributed to shareholders, and we saw an improvement in AOCI of $3 billion due to lower long-term interest rates. The AOCI included more than $0.5 billion increase from improved valuations of AFS debt securities, and that flows through CET1, and the remaining $2.5 billion due to changes in cash flow hedges doesn't impact regulatory capital. During the quarter, we paid $1.8 billion in common dividends and we bought back $2.2 billion in shares.

股東權益比第四季度增加了 70 億美元，因為收益僅被分配給股東的資本部分抵消，而且由於長期利率較低，我們看到 AOCI 增加了 30 億美元。 AOCI 包括 AFS 債務證券估值提高帶來的超過 5 億美元的增長，這些增長流經 CET1，而由於現金流對沖的變化而導致的剩餘 25 億美元不會影響監管資本。本季度，我們支付了 18 億美元的普通股息，並回購了 22 億美元的股票。

Turning to regulatory capital. Our CET1 level improved to $184 billion since December 31, and our CET1 ratio improved 14 basis points to 11.4%, once again, adding to our buffer over our 10.4% current minimum requirement as well as the 10.9% minimum requirement that we'll see on January 1, '24. That means in the past 12 months, we've improved our CET1 ratio by 100 basis points, and we've supported our clients and we've returned $12 billion in capital to shareholders.

轉向監管資本。自 12 月 31 日以來，我們的 CET1 水平提高到 1840 億美元，我們的 CET1 比率提高了 14 個基點，達到 11.4%，再次增加了我們對 10.4% 當前最低要求以及我們將看到的 10.9% 最低要求的緩衝24 年 1 月 1 日。這意味著在過去 12 個月中，我們將 CET1 比率提高了 100 個基點，我們為客戶提供了支持，並向股東返還了 120 億美元的資本。

CET1 capital improved $4 billion, and that reflects the benefit of earnings and the AOCI improvement, partially offset by the capital we returned to shareholders. Our risk-weighted assets increased modestly, and that partially offset the benefit to the CET1 ratio of the higher capital we generated. And then our supplemental leverage ratio increased to 6%. That compares to a minimum requirement of 5% and leaves plenty of capacity for balance sheet growth. And our TLAC ratio remains comfortably above our requirements.

CET1 資本增加了 40 億美元，這反映了收益和 AOCI 改善的好處，部分被我們返還給股東的資本所抵消。我們的風險加權資產適度增加，這部分抵消了我們產生的更高資本對 CET1 比率的好處。然後我們的補充槓桿率增加到6%。相比之下，5% 的最低要求為資產負債表增長留下了充足的空間。我們的 TLAC 比率仍然輕鬆地高於我們的要求。

So let's spend a minute on loan growth, and we'll do that by turning to Slide 6, where you can see the average loans grew 7% year-over-year, driven by commercial loans and credit card growth. The credit card growth reflects increased marketing. It reflects enhanced offers and higher levels of card account openings.

因此，讓我們花一點時間討論貸款增長，我們將通過幻燈片 6 來做到這一點，您可以在其中看到在商業貸款和信用卡增長的推動下，平均貸款同比增長 7%。信用卡的增長反映了營銷的增加。它反映了增強的優惠和更高水平的銀行卡開戶。

The commercial growth across the past year reflects the diversity of commercial activity across Global Banking and Global Markets and, to some degree, Global Wealth. And on a more near-term linked-quarter basis, loans grew at a much lower pace, partly driven by seasonal credit card paydowns after the fourth quarter holiday spending. And then commercial demand slowed in Q1, and we saw some paydowns by our wealth management clients as they lowered leverage as rates rose.

過去一年的商業增長反映了全球銀行業和全球市場以及在某種程度上全球財富的商業活動的多樣性。在更近期的環比基礎上，貸款增長速度要慢得多，部分原因是第四季度假期消費後的季節性信用卡還款。然後第一季度商業需求放緩，我們看到我們的財富管理客戶在利率上升時降低了槓桿率，從而減少了一些支出。

So let's turn to deposits, and there's obviously been a lot of additional focus this quarter. So I want to spend extra time here, and I'm going to start with Slide 7 and talk about average deposits. Just a few points we need to make before focusing on a more detailed discussion of the recent trends.

因此，讓我們轉向存款，本季度顯然有很多額外的關注點。所以我想在這裡多花點時間，我將從幻燈片 7 開始，談談平均存款。在更詳細地討論最近的趨勢之前，我們只需要說明幾點。

Average total deposits for the first quarter were $1.89 trillion, that is down 2% linked-quarter and down 7% year-over-year. Our deposits peaked in the fourth quarter of 2021. And even as the Fed has continued to withdraw money supply, our deposits have held around $1.9 trillion because there's a lot more industry deposits today in a much bigger economy today compared to pre-pandemic.

第一季度的平均總存款為 1.89 萬億美元，環比下降 2%，同比下降 7%。我們的存款在 2021 年第四季度達到頂峰。即使美聯儲繼續撤回貨幣供應，我們的存款仍保持在 1.9 萬億美元左右，因為與大流行前相比，當今更大的經濟體中的行業存款要多得多。

Our average deposits are up 34% compared to our pre-pandemic Q4 '19 balance, and the industry's deposits are up 31% to $17.4 trillion. So we've obviously fared a little bit better than the industry. We put our pre-pandemic deposits for each line of business on the slide so you can compare our balances then and now.

與 19 年第四季度大流行前的餘額相比，我們的平均存款增長了 34%，而該行業的存款增長了 31%，達到 17.4 萬億美元。所以我們的表現顯然比行業好一點。我們將每個業務線的大流行前存款放在幻燈片上，以便您可以比較我們當時和現在的餘額。

I want to highlight Consumer checking balances, which remained 53% higher than pre-pandemic. And as I think all of us would expect, GWIM combined client deposits are up a lesser 23%, as those are the clients that generally move their excess cash into other off-balance sheet products. And in Global Banking, you can see the rotation to interest-bearing across time as rates rose.

我想強調消費者支票餘額，該餘額仍比大流行前高出 53%。正如我認為我們所有人都期望的那樣，GWIM 合併客戶存款增長了 23%，因為這些客戶通常將多餘的現金轉移到其他資產負債表外產品中。在全球銀行業務中，您可以看到隨著利率上升，隨著時間的推移轉向生息。

So let's get a little more granular and a little more near term. And we'll use Slide 8 for that, where you can see the breakout of deposit trends on a weekly ending basis across the last 2 quarters. You can also see that we plotted the time line of Fed target and rate hikes on the top left chart just for comparison through time.

因此，讓我們更細化一些，更近期一些。為此，我們將使用幻燈片 8，您可以在其中看到過去兩個季度每週結束時存款趨勢的突破。您還可以看到，我們在左上方的圖表上繪製了美聯儲目標和加息的時間線，只是為了通過時間進行比較。

In the upper left, you can see the trend of our total deposits. We ended Q1 '23 at $1.91 trillion, that's down 1%. And as Brian mentioned, over the course of the past 6 months, those balances have been relatively stable. In Consumer, looking at the top right chart, we show the difference here in the movement through the quarter between the balances of low to no interest checking accounts and the higher-yielding nonchecking accounts. And across the entire quarter, we saw a modest $4 billion decline in total.

在左上角，您可以看到我們總存款的趨勢。我們以 1.91 萬億美元結束了 23 年第一季度，下降了 1%。正如 Brian 提到的，在過去 6 個月中，這些餘額一直相對穩定。在消費者中，查看右上角的圖表，我們顯示了低息或無息支票賬戶與收益較高的非支票賬戶餘額之間本季度變動的差異。在整個季度中，我們看到總額略有下降 40 億美元。

Checking balances obviously have some variability around paydays in particular, but note the relative stability of checking deposits because these are the operational accounts with money in motion to pay the bills and everyday living costs for families.

支票餘額顯然在發薪日前後有一些變化，但請注意支票存款的相對穩定性，因為這些是有流動資金的運營賬戶，用於支付家庭的賬單和日常生活費用。

I'd also point out that our checking balances were modestly growing, even ahead of March 9 upheaval and continued to move higher through the quarter on the back of disruption. Lower nonchecking balances mostly reflect money moved out of deposits and into brokerage accounts where we earn a small fee. Rate paid increased 6 basis points from the fourth quarter to 12 basis points on this $1 trillion of total consumer deposits and remains low because of the 52% mix that is checking.

我還要指出，我們的支票餘額正在適度增長，甚至在 3 月 9 日動蕩之前也是如此，並且在中斷的支持下在整個季度繼續走高。較低的非支票餘額主要反映了資金從存款中轉移到我們賺取少量費用的經紀賬戶中。在這 1 萬億美元的消費者存款總額中，支付利率比第四季度增加了 6 個基點，達到 12 個基點，並且由於 52% 的組合正在檢查，所以利率仍然很低。

Lastly, I just note that the rate movements in this business are concentrated in the small CDs and consumer investment deposits, which together represent about 5% of the deposits.

最後，我只注意到該業務的利率變動集中在小型 CD 和消費者投資存款中，它們合計約佔存款的 5%。

In Wealth Management, as you would expect, it shows the most relative decline. And you can see the continued trend of clients moving money from lower-yielding sweep accounts into higher-yielding preferred deposits and off balance sheet to other investment alternatives.

正如您所料，在財富管理方面，它顯示出相對下降幅度最大。你可以看到客戶將資金從收益較低的清掃賬戶轉移到收益較高的優先存款和資產負債表外的其他投資選擇的持續趨勢。

Now if we went back further, you'd see that roughly $90 billion has moved out of sweeps in the past year, which leaves $80 billion in these accounts. So you can see how, with the pace and size of rate hikes slowing, we expect the declines in balances to lessen from here.

現在，如果我們再往前追溯，您會發現在過去一年中大約有 900 億美元從清算中轉出，在這些賬戶中留下了 800 億美元。所以你可以看到，隨著加息步伐和幅度的放緩，我們預計餘額下降將如何從這裡開始減少。

At the bottom right, note the Global Banking deposit movement where we hold about $500 billion in customer deposits. These are generally operational deposits of our commercial customers, and they use that to manage their cash flows through the course of the year. Those are down $3 billion from the fourth quarter. And what's interesting to note is that our total deposits in this segment have been stable at around $500 billion for the past 6 months, and this business just continues to see rotation into interest bearing.

在右下角，請注意全球銀行存款變動，我們持有約 5000 億美元的客戶存款。這些通常是我們商業客戶的運營存款，他們用這些存款來管理全年的現金流量。與第四季度相比減少了 30 億美元。值得注意的是，在過去 6 個月裡，我們在這一領域的總存款一直穩定在 5000 億美元左右，而且這項業務只是繼續轉向生息。

The mix of interest-bearing deposits on an ending basis moved from 49% last quarter to 55% in Q1. And obviously, we pay increased rates on those interest-bearing deposits. And it's this rotation in Global Banking that's driving the rotational shift of the total company, and it's pretty typical and to be expected in this environment.

期末計息存款的比例從上一季度的 49% 上升到第一季度的 55%。顯然，我們為這些有息存款支付更高的利率。正是全球銀行業的這種輪換推動了整個公司的輪換，這在這種環境下非常典型並且可以預料。

So in summary, deposits continued to behave as we would expect. The cash transactional balances have shown some recent stabilization. And for investment cash, we've seen deposits move to brokerage and other platforms for direct holdings of money market, mutual funds, treasuries, and we're capturing many of those flows as you see in our numbers. It's just we expect that to slow going forward.

因此，總而言之，存款的表現繼續符合我們的預期。現金交易餘額最近顯示出一些穩定。對於投資現金，我們已經看到存款轉移到經紀業務和其他平台，用於直接持有貨幣市場、共同基金、國債，我們正在捕捉其中的許多流量，正如您在我們的數字中看到的那樣。只是我們預計這會放緩。

So now that we've examined trends for the different lines of business, I want to make some important points about the characteristics of our deposit franchise using Slide 9, and this will just help reinforce for shareholders who own Bank of America that they're investing in one of the world's great deposit franchises, all of it based off of relationships we have with our customers and the value they place on the award-winning capabilities and convenience they have access to.

因此，既然我們已經研究了不同業務線的趨勢，我想使用幻燈片 9 就我們的存款特許經營權的特徵提出一些重要觀點，這只會幫助擁有美國銀行的股東加強他們是投資於世界上最大的存款特許經營權之一，所有這一切都基於我們與客戶的關係以及他們對屢獲殊榮的能力和便利性的重視。

Starting from the top focus, first on Consumer. You can see that more than 80% of deposits have been with us for more than 5 years, and more than 2/3 of our Consumer deposits are balances with customers who've had relationships with the bank for more than 10 years. Also, more than 3/4 of these customers are very highly engaged in their activities with us. They're also geographically dispersed across the United States, given our presence in 83 of the top 100 markets.

從最重要的焦點開始，首先是消費者。你可以看到超過80%的存款都在我們這裡存了5年以上，我們超過2/3的消費存款是與銀行有10年以上合作關係的客戶的餘額。此外，這些客戶中有超過 3/4 的人非常積極地參與他們與我們的活動。考慮到我們在前 100 大市場中的 83 個都有業務，它們在地理上也分散在美國各地。

Lastly, whether you look at consumers or small business, the value proposition is what's driving the same result. We've got long-tenured customers with deep relationships that are highly engaged.

最後，無論您關注的是消費者還是小型企業，價值主張都是驅動相同結果的因素。我們擁有長期的客戶，他們有著高度參與的深厚關係。

Turning to Wealth Management. You can see a similar story around long tenure and quite active relationships. The average relationship of our GWIM clients is around 14 years. And again, these clients are very geographically diverse. They're also very digitally engaged, and we continue to see deepening around banking solutions and products of all types.

轉向財富管理。你可以在長期任期和相當活躍的關係中看到類似的故事。我們 GWIM 客戶的平均關係約為 14 年。同樣，這些客戶在地域上非常多樣化。他們也非常重視數字化，我們繼續看到圍繞銀行解決方案和各類產品的深入發展。

There's lots of options for these clients that extend from their operational checking accounts, all the way up through preferred deposit options. And then we also benefit from having great alternatives for them within our investment platform.

這些客戶有很多選擇，從他們的運營支票賬戶一直延伸到首選存款選項。然後，我們還受益於在我們的投資平台中為他們提供的絕佳選擇。

On Global Banking, note that 80% of our U.S. deposit balances are held by clients who have had an account with us for at least 10 years. Furthermore, as we measure the number of solutions that clients have with us, we know that 73% of balances are held by clients that have at least 5 products on us. And just like the other businesses, they're highly diversified by industry and geography. So those are some of the things that make our quality deposit base stable.

在全球銀行業務方面，請注意我們 80% 的美國存款餘額由在我們這裡開戶至少 10 年的客戶持有。此外，當我們衡量客戶擁有我們的解決方案數量時，我們知道 73% 的餘額由至少擁有 5 種產品的客戶持有。就像其他企業一樣，它們在行業和地域方面高度多元化。因此，這些是使我們的優質存款基礎穩定的一些因素。

So now that we've walked through both loans and deposits, I want to transition a bit to make some points on balance sheet management and to focus on the liquidity we enjoy by having a surplus of customer deposits that far exceeds the loan demand of our clients today and far exceeded the loan demand of our clients pre-pandemic.

因此，既然我們已經了解了貸款和存款，我想稍微過渡一下，在資產負債表管理上提出一些觀點，並關注我們通過擁有遠遠超過我們貸款需求的客戶存款盈餘而享有的流動性今天的客戶遠遠超過大流行前客戶的貸款需求。

Having the deposits alone doesn't pay the expenses to support these great customer bases and it doesn't mean much to our shareholders, unless we put them to work to extract the value of those deposits. So that's what we're trying to illustrate, and we want to show you how we do that.

僅僅擁有存款並不能支付支持這些龐大客戶群的費用，而且對我們的股東來說意義不大，除非我們讓他們努力提取這些存款的價值。這就是我們試圖說明的，我們想向您展示我們是如何做到的。

You can see that on Slide 10, where you note we had significant excess deposits over loans pre-pandemic. And during the pandemic, that increased -- that amount increased significantly. Before the pandemic, we had $0.5 trillion more in deposits than loans, and that peaked in late 2021 at more than $1.1 trillion, and it remains high at roughly $900 billion still today. That's the context as we talk about how we manage excess cash.

您可以在幻燈片 10 上看到這一點，您注意到我們在大流行前的貸款中有大量超額存款。在大流行期間，這個數字增加了——這個數字顯著增加了。在大流行之前，我們的存款比貸款多 0.5 萬億美元，這一數字在 2021 年底達到頂峰，超過 1.1 萬億美元，至今仍保持在約 9000 億美元的高位。這就是我們談論如何管理過剩現金的背景。

So let's turn to Slide 11. And here, we're going to focus on the banking book because our Global Markets balance sheet has remained largely market funded, and just follow the graph from left to right. At the top of the slide, you note trend of cash and cash equivalents and the 2 components of the debt securities balances, available for sale and held to maturity.

因此，讓我們轉到幻燈片 11。在這裡，我們將重點關注銀行賬戶，因為我們的全球市場資產負債表仍然主要由市場提供資金，請按照從左到右的圖表進行操作。在幻燈片的頂部，您注意到現金和現金等價物的趨勢以及可供出售和持有至到期的債務證券餘額的 2 個組成部分。

And you can see the trend of the overall combined cash and securities balance movement. And it closely mirrors the previous slides excess deposit trends, as you would expect. In 2020, deposits grew while loans declined, and that was pandemic borrowing from our commercial clients stopping and then quickly paying it off. Throughout 2020, as we put deposits to work, we took a number of actions to protect our capital and then included a buildup in hold to maturity, better aligning our capital treatment with our intent to hold those securities to maturity.

您可以看到整體現金和證券餘額變動的趨勢。正如您所預料的那樣，它與之前幻燈片中的過剩存款趨勢非常相似。 2020 年，存款增加而貸款減少，這就是我們商業客戶的大流行性借款停止，然後迅速還清。在整個 2020 年，當我們將存款投入使用時，我們採取了一系列行動來保護我們的資本，然後包括增加持有至到期日，使我們的資本處理方式與我們持有這些證券至到期日的意圖更好地保持一致。

We also hedged rate risk in the available-for-sale book, using pay fixed receive variable swaps. So these securities acted like cash and they earned higher yields and guarded against capital volatility. As we enter the middle of 2021, it became more clear that the stimulus payment would likely be the last one, and therefore, we believe deposits would be peaking.

我們還使用支付固定接收可變掉期對沖可供出售賬簿中的利率風險。因此，這些證券就像現金一樣，它們可以獲得更高的收益率並防止資本波動。隨著我們進入 2021 年年中，刺激付款可能是最後一筆變得更加明顯，因此，我們認為存款將達到頂峰。

As a result, we stopped adding to our hold-to-maturity securities book. That book peaked in the third quarter of 2021 at $683 billion, $562 billion were mortgage backs and the rest were treasuries. And all that's happened is that notional balances have declined in each of the past 6 quarters, ending the quarter at $625 billion. And within that, the mortgage-backed portfolio is down $67 billion to $495 billion.

因此，我們停止增加持有至到期證券賬簿。這本書在 2021 年第三季度達到 6830 億美元的峰值，其中 5620 億美元是抵押貸款支持，其餘是國債。所發生的一切是過去 6 個季度中每個季度的名義餘額都在下降，本季度末為 6250 億美元。其中，抵押貸款支持的投資組合減少了 670 億美元，降至 4950 億美元。

As rates began to rise quickly throughout 2022, the value of our deposits rose. And at the same time, the disclosed market value of the hold-to-maturity securities has declined, resulting in a negative market valuation on those bonds. That negative market valuation peaked in the third quarter, came down in the fourth quarter, and it's come down another $10 billion in the first quarter.

隨著利率在整個 2022 年開始快速上升，我們的存款價值上升。同時，已披露的持有至到期證券的市值下降，導致這些債券的市場估值為負。負市場估值在第三季度達到頂峰，在第四季度下降，第一季度又下降了 100 億美元。

In our 10-K disclosure, we include a chart, which shows the maturity distribution of our securities portfolio. And I'd remind you, this is based on the maturity dates of those originations, i.e. the date of the last contractual payment. When we look at the actual cash flows of those bonds over time, it results in an average weighted life of the hold-to-maturity securities book of a little more than 8 years.

在我們的 10-K 披露中，我們包含一張圖表，顯示我們證券投資組合的期限分佈。我要提醒你，這是基於這些起源的到期日，即最後一次合同付款的日期。當我們觀察這些債券隨時間推移的實際現金流量時，會發現持有至到期證券賬簿的平均加權壽命略高於 8 年。

And as you can see, since the third quarter of '21, we've continued to see increases in the overall yield on the balances due to both the maturity and reinvestment of lower-yielding securities as well as remix into higher-yielding cash. And as you can see, with deposits paying 92 basis points, that compares to our blend of cash and government-guaranteed securities, which pays 290 basis points. So we continue to benefit NII and yield.

正如你所看到的，自 21 年第三季度以來，由於低收益證券的到期和再投資以及與高收益現金的混合，我們繼續看到餘額的整體收益率有所增加。正如您所看到的，存款支付 92 個基點，而我們的現金和政府擔保證券混合支付 290 個基點。因此，我們繼續受益於 NII 和收益。

And finally, one very important last point I want to make, which is on the improved NII of our banking book, because remember, we manage the entirety of our balance sheet. That includes our deposits, and that's where you see the net interest income has improved significantly. NII, excluding Global Markets, which we disclose each quarter, troughed in the third quarter of 2020 at $9.1 billion, and it's now $5.4 billion higher on a quarterly basis at $14.5 billion in the first quarter of '23, and that's the acid test managing the entire balance sheet.

最後，我想提出一個非常重要的最後一點，那就是關於我們銀行賬戶的改進 NII，因為請記住，我們管理著整個資產負債表。這包括我們的存款，這就是您看到淨利息收入顯著改善的地方。 NII，不包括我們每個季度披露的全球市場，在 2020 年第三季度跌至 91 億美元的谷底，現在每季度增加 54 億美元，在 23 年第一季度達到 145 億美元，這就是管理的嚴峻考驗整個資產負債表。

So let's turn now to Slide 12 and focus on net interest income. On a GAAP non-FTE basis, NII in the first quarter was $14.4 billion, and the FTE NII number was $14.6 billion. Focusing on FTE, net interest income increased to $2.9 billion from the first quarter of '22 or 25%, while our net interest yield improved 51 basis points to 2.2%.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 12 並關注淨利息收入。按 GAAP 非 FTE 計算，第一季度 NII 為 144 億美元，FTE NII 為 146 億美元。專注於 FTE，淨利息收入從 22 年第一季度增加到 29 億美元，增幅為 25%，而我們的淨利息收益率提高了 51 個基點，達到 2.2%。

Improvement was driven by rates, and that includes reductions in securities premium amortization. Average Fed fund rates are up 440 basis points year-over-year. Relative to that increase in Fed funds, which has benefited all of our variable rate assets, the rate paid on our total deposits rose 89 basis points, and the rate paid today on interest-bearing deposits is up 133 basis points. Average loan growth of $64 billion also aided the year-over-year NII improvement.

改善是由利率推動的，其中包括證券溢價攤銷的減少。平均聯邦基金利率同比上升 440 個基點。相對於受益於我們所有浮動利率資產的聯邦基金的增加，我們總存款的支付利率上升了 89 個基點，今天支付的有息存款利率上升了 133 個基點。 640 億美元的平均貸款增長也有助於 NII 的同比改善。

Turning to a linked-quarter discussion. NII of $14.6 billion is down $222 million from Q4. And that's primarily driven by the continued impact of lower deposit balances and the mix shift into interest-bearing. It's also influenced by lower Global Markets NII, which remember, still gets passed through to clients via higher noninterest income as part of the trading revenue.

轉向鏈接季度討論。 NII 為 146 億美元，比第四季度減少了 2.22 億美元。這主要是受較低存款餘額的持續影響以及向計息的混合轉變的推動。它也受到較低的全球市場 NII 的影響，請記住，它仍然通過較高的非利息收入作為交易收入的一部分傳遞給客戶。

Excluding the $262 million decline in Global Markets NII, the banking book NII of $14.5 billion, that was modestly higher as the benefit of increased short interest rates, some modest loan growth from some deposit favorability was offset by 2 less days of interest in the quarter.

不包括全球市場 NII 下降 2.62 億美元，銀行賬戶 NII 為 145 億美元，由於短期利率上升的好處略有增加，一些存款優惠帶來的一些貸款增長被本季度減少 2 天的利息所抵消.

Turning to asset sensitivity on a forward basis. The plus-100 basis point parallel shift at March 31 stands at $3.3 billion of expected NII over the next 12 months from our banking book; 96% of that sensitivity is driven by short rates.

轉向遠期資產敏感性。 3 月 31 日的加 100 個基點平行移動表示未來 12 個月我們的銀行賬戶中的預期 NII 為 33 億美元； 96% 的敏感性是由短期利率驅動的。

In summary. The first quarter NII was $14.6 billion in this quarter on an FTE basis, and that was a little better than our $14.4 billion expectation as we began the quarter since deposits and rate pass-throughs were both modestly better. Looking forward, based on everything we know about interest rates and customer behavior, we expect second quarter NII on an FTE basis to be around 2% lower compared to Q1.

總之。本季度第一季度的 NII 按 FTE 計算為 146 億美元，這比我們本季度開始時的 144 億美元預期要好一點，因為存款和利率傳遞都略有好轉。展望未來，根據我們對利率和客戶行為的了解，我們預計第二季度以 FTE 為基礎的 NII 將比第一季度低 2% 左右。

So think about that NII as about $14.3 billion FTE, plus or minus, driven by expected deposit movements as well as lower Global Markets NII, which again, is offset in the trading revenue.

因此，將 NII 視為大約 143 億美元的全職員工，上下浮動，這是由預期的存款變動以及較低的全球市場 NII 驅動的，這再次被交易收入所抵消。

So let me remind you of some of the caveats when it comes to the NII guidance. First, importantly, it assumes that interest rates in the forward curve materialize, and that includes one more hike and then a couple of cuts in 2023. We also expect funding costs for Global Markets client activity to continue to increase based on those higher rates, and as noted, the impact of that is still offset in noninterest income. And that obviously assumes our current client positioning and the forward rate expectations. We continue to expect modest loan growth, so that's in our NII expectation as well, and it's driven by credit card and, to a lesser degree, commercial.

因此，讓我提醒您注意有關 NII 指南的一些注意事項。首先，重要的是，它假設遠期曲線中的利率實現，包括在 2023 年再次加息和兩次降息。我們還預計全球市場客戶活動的融資成本將根據這些較高的利率繼續增加，如前所述，其影響仍被非利息收入所抵消。這顯然假設了我們當前的客戶定位和遠期利率預期。我們繼續預計貸款會適度增長，因此這也在我們的 NII 預期中，並且它是由信用卡驅動的，並且在較小程度上是商業驅動的。

And then finally, we just expect lower deposits and rotational shifts towards interest-bearing really for 3 reasons. First, we expect further Fed balance sheet reductions to continue to reduce deposits for the industry. Second, we anticipate lower Wealth Management deposits in the second quarter. That's pretty typical due to the seasonal impact of clients paying income taxes and, to a lesser degree now, a continuation of balance movement seeking better yields off balance sheet. And third, we just continue to expect some of the rotation of commercial deposits towards interest-bearing.

最後，我們只預期較低的存款和輪流轉向生息，原因有 3 個。首先，我們預計美聯儲進一步縮減資產負債表將繼續減少該行業的存款。其次，我們預計第二季度財富管理存款將減少。由於客戶支付所得稅的季節性影響，以及現在在較小程度上尋求更好的資產負債表收益的平衡運動的持續，這是非常典型的。第三，我們只是繼續預期商業存款將部分轉向生息。

Okay. Let's go to Slide 13. We'll talk about expense. And here, what you can see is in the first quarter, our expenses were $16.2 billion. That's up $700 million from the fourth quarter, and it's driven by seasonal elevation from payroll taxes mostly at $450 million, a little bit from higher FDIC insurance expense, that was another $100 million this quarter, and the cost of adding people, call that another $100 million.

好的。讓我們轉到幻燈片 13。我們將討論費用。在這裡，你可以看到第一季度，我們的支出為 162 億美元。這比第四季度增加了 7 億美元，這是由於工資稅的季節性上漲，主要是 4.5 億美元，還有一點是 FDIC 保險費用增加，本季度又增加了 1 億美元，以及增加人員的成本，稱為另一個1億美元。

We ended the first quarter with a little more than 217,000 people at the company, that was 260 people more than year-end. During the quarter, we welcomed 3,000 additional people into the company in January. That's due to outstanding offers that we extended in the fourth quarter. That meant that our headcount peaked in January. That's a little more than 218,000.

第一季度結束時，我們公司的員工人數略多於 217,000 人，比年底增加了 260 人。在本季度，我們在 1 月份迎來了 3,000 名新員工加入公司。這是由於我們在第四季度提供了出色的報價。這意味著我們的員工人數在 1 月份達到頂峰。這比 218,000 多一點。

And at the end of last week, we were down to 216,000. We continue to expect that to move lower over time. And we expect by the end of the second quarter, our full-time equivalent headcount will be roughly 213,000, excluding our summer interns.

上週末，我們減少到 216,000。我們繼續預計隨著時間的推移會走低。我們預計到第二季度末，我們的全職等效員工人數將約為 213,000 人，不包括我們的暑期實習生。

As we look forward to the next quarter then, we would expect Q2 expense to benefit from the reduction of the seasonal elevation of payroll tax in Q1, and we would also expect to see expense reductions coming from headcount reductions through attrition over time and our operational excellence work.

當我們期待下一個季度時，我們預計第二季度的支出將受益於第一季度工資稅季節性上漲的減少，我們還預計隨著時間的推移和我們的運營人員的減少將導致員工人數減少卓越的工作。

So we expect expense in Q2 to be around $400 million or $500 million lower than Q1. So think of that as around $15.8 billion, plus or minus in Q2. And then further, we just expect continued sequential expense declines in the third quarter and then again in the fourth quarter as we benefit from continued headcount discipline and attrition through time.

因此，我們預計第二季度的支出將比第一季度低 4 億美元或 5 億美元左右。因此，將其視為大約 158 億美元，在第二季度上下浮動。此外，我們預計第三季度和第四季度的費用將繼續連續下降，因為我們受益於持續的員工紀律和隨著時間的推移而減少。

I'll turn to asset quality on Slide 14, and I want to start the credit discussion by saying, once again, asset quality of our customers remains healthy and net charge-offs continue to rise from their near historic lows. Net charge-offs of $807 million increased $118 million from the fourth quarter. That increase was driven by credit card losses as higher late-stage delinquencies flowed through to charge-offs. For context, the credit card net charge-off rate was 2.21% in this first quarter, and that compares to 3.03% in the fourth quarter of '19 pre-pandemic.

我將在幻燈片 14 上談談資產質量，我想再次重申，我們客戶的資產質量保持健康，淨沖銷繼續從接近歷史低點上升，以此開始信用討論。淨沖銷額為 8.07 億美元，比第四季度增加了 1.18 億美元。這一增長是由信用卡損失推動的，因為較高的後期拖欠率流向了沖銷。就背景而言，第一季度信用卡淨註銷率為 2.21%，而 19 年大流行前第四季度為 3.03%。

Provision expense was $931 million in Q1, and that included $124 million reserve build. That's obviously less than the $403 million build we took in the fourth quarter, and it reflects modest loan growth and an ever so slightly improved macroeconomic outlook that, on a weighted basis, continues to include an unemployment rate still north of 5% as we end 2023.

第一季度的撥備費用為 9.31 億美元，其中包括 1.24 億美元的儲備建設。這顯然低於我們在第四季度取得的 4.03 億美元的增幅，這反映出貸款增長溫和，宏觀經濟前景略有改善，在加權基礎上，繼續包括我們結束時仍高於 5% 的失業率2023.

We included a slide in the appendix this quarter that highlights the mix and credit metrics of our commercial real estate exposure. And I just want to remind everyone here, we've been very intentional around our client selection, very intentional around portfolio concentration and deal structure over many years. And as a result, we've seen NPLs and realized losses that remain quite low for this portfolio.

我們在本季度的附錄中包含了一張幻燈片，突出顯示了我們商業房地產敞口的組合和信用指標。我只想在這裡提醒大家，多年來，我們一直非常有意選擇客戶，非常有意圍繞投資組合集中度和交易結構。結果，我們看到了不良貸款並實現了該投資組合的損失仍然很低。

We had a total of $66 million of commercial real estate losses in 2022. 70% of that was in office loans, and that resulted in an annualized loss rate of 26 basis points. In the first quarter, to give some perspective, our office loan losses were $15 million. We have roughly $73 billion in commercial real estate loans outstanding. That's less than 7% of our loan book. It's highly diversified by geography, and no part of the country represents more than 22% of the book. It's also very diversified across property type.

2022 年，我們的商業房地產損失總額為 6600 萬美元。其中 70% 是辦公室貸款，導致年化損失率為 26 個基點。第一季度，我們的辦公室貸款損失為 1500 萬美元。我們有大約 730 億美元的未償還商業房地產貸款。這還不到我們貸款賬簿的 7%。它在地理上高度多樣化，該國的任何地方都佔全書的 22% 以上。它在財產類型上也非常多樣化。

Within property type, our office portfolio is $19 billion. It's about 2% of our total loans. The portfolio is roughly 75% Class A properties. And when we originate, they're typically around 55% loan-to-value. Even though we've seen some property value declines, these exposures still remain well secured. $3.6 billion is classified as reservable criticized. And even on the most recent refreshes on our toughest loans, we still have 75% LTVs.

在物業類型中，我們的寫字樓投資組合為 190 億美元。這大約占我們貸款總額的 2%。投資組合中大約有 75% 是 A 級物業。當我們發起時，它們的貸款價值通常約為 55%。儘管我們看到一些財產價值下降，但這些風險敞口仍然得到很好的保障。 36 億美元被歸類為可保留的批評。即使在最近更新我們最艱難的貸款時，我們仍然有 75% 的 LTV。

In our office book, $4 billion is scheduled to mature this year, another $6 billion in 2024, with the remainder spread over the following years. So we continue to feel that the portfolio is well positioned and adequately reserved given the current conditions. On Slide 15, for completeness, we highlight the credit quality metrics for both our Consumer and Commercial portfolios.

在我們的辦公室賬簿中，有 40 億美元計劃於今年到期，另外 60 億美元將於 2024 年到期，其餘的將在接下來的幾年中分配。因此，我們繼續認為，鑑於當前情況，該投資組合定位良好且儲備充足。在幻燈片 15 上，為了完整起見，我們強調了我們的消費者和商業投資組合的信用質量指標。

And with that, I'm going to turn it back to Brian to talk about the lines of business.

有了這個，我要把它轉回給布賴恩來談談業務範圍。

Thank you, Alastair, and we're going to begin on Slide 16. So I want to bring us back to the things that drive the long-term value of this franchise and the value for you, our shareholders. Every business segment grew customers and accounts organically in the quarter and use digital tools and capabilities to drive engagement even deeper and also to drive customer satisfaction to industry-leading levels.

謝謝你，阿拉斯泰爾，我們將從幻燈片 16 開始。所以我想把我們帶回那些推動這個特許經營權的長期價值和你的價值的事情，我們的股東。每個業務部門在本季度都有機地增加了客戶和客戶，並使用數字工具和功能來推動更深入的參與，並將客戶滿意度提高到行業領先水平。

On Slide 16, we've highlighted some of the important elements of organic growth. I won't go through all the line items here. But in Consumer, we saw -- we opened 130,000 net new checking accounts, 1.3 million credit card accounts and 9% more investment accounts that aided to record quarter 1 Consumer investment flows. Consumer also has -- now has had 17 quarters of positive net new checking accounts.

在幻燈片 16 中，我們強調了有機增長的一些重要因素。我不會在這裡詳細介紹所有的項目。但在消費者方面，我們看到——我們開設了 130,000 個淨新支票賬戶、130 萬個信用卡賬戶和增加 9% 的投資賬戶，這有助於創紀錄的第一季度消費者投資流量。消費者也有——現在有 17 個季度的正淨新支票賬戶。

In Global Wealth, we had a record quarter, adding 14,500 net new Wealth relationships. In Global Banking, we added clients to increase the number of products per relationship. In Global Markets, as we said earlier, Jimmy DeMare and the team had one of the highest quarters of sales and trading. The other elements of earnings the management team remains focused on throughout this inflation environment is our expense management efforts. But even given those, we continue to make investments in the future.

在全球財富方面，我們有一個創紀錄的季度，淨增加了 14,500 個新的財富關係。在全球銀行業務中，我們增加了客戶以增加每個關係的產品數量。正如我們之前所說，在全球市場，Jimmy DeMare 和團隊擁有最高的銷售和交易季度之一。在整個通貨膨脹環境中，管理團隊仍然關注的其他收益要素是我們的費用管理工作。但即便如此，我們仍會繼續對未來進行投資。

We continue the streak of operating leverage in our account, and you can see that on Slide 17 -- in our company, and you can see on Slide 17. We now have had 7 quarters of operating leverage. The efficiency ratio went to 62%. And the nominal dollars of expenses we had today are similar to what we had 10 -- 8, 9, 10 years ago.

我們在我們的賬戶中繼續保持經營槓桿，你可以在幻燈片 17 上看到——在我們公司，你可以在幻燈片 17 上看到。我們現在有 7 個季度的經營槓桿。效率比達到 62%。我們今天的名義開支與我們 10 年、8 年、9 年、10 年前的開支相似。

As we go to Slide 18, let's talk about individual businesses and consumer banking first. For the quarter, Consumer Banking earned $3.1 billion on good organic revenue growth and delivered its eighth consecutive quarter of strong operating leverage while we continue to invest in the future. Top line revenue grew 21%. Expenses rose 11%.

在我們轉到幻燈片 18 時，讓我們先談談個體企業和消費者銀行業務。本季度，消費者銀行業務憑藉良好的有機收入增長賺取了 31 億美元，並連續第八個季度實現強勁的經營槓桿，同時我們繼續投資於未來。收入增長 21%。費用增長了 11%。

These results demonstrate the true value of the $1 trillion deposit franchise and the deep relationship we have with the clients in that business. The business continues to have $700 billion in excess deposits over its loan balances. And as we said earlier, this grew checking accounts $2.5 million -- 2.5 million new checking accounts since the pandemic started. Solid earnings growth of 4% understates the success this business has prior year included reserve releases while we've built reserves this quarter.

這些結果證明了 1 萬億美元存款特許經營權的真正價值以及我們與客戶在該業務中的深厚關係。該企業的貸款餘額繼續有 7000 億美元的超額存款。正如我們之前所說，這增加了 250 萬美元的支票賬戶——自大流行開始以來增加了 250 萬個新支票賬戶。 4% 的穩健收益增長低估了該業務在上一年取得的成功，包括釋放儲備金，而我們在本季度建立了儲備金。

On a pretax, pre-provision basis, PPNR grew 34% year-over-year. I will also note that the revenue growth overcame a decline in service charges as a result of us lowering our NSF OD charges for customers several quarters ago. The expense on the consumers reflect the continued business investments for growth, including adding relationship associates, further develop increases in the cost of technology and implementation of new tools.

在稅前撥備前的基礎上，PPNR 同比增長 34%。我還會注意到，由於我們在幾個季度前降低了對客戶的 NSF OD 費用，因此收入增長克服了服務費用的下降。消費者支出反映了為增長而進行的持續業務投資，包括增加關係夥伴、進一步開發技術成本的增加和新工具的實施。

As you think about this business, remember, much of the company's minimum wage hike is during 2022. The ones we made midyear in addition to our march to $25 an hour impact this business more than any other business. However, it has helped drive the attrition business into half compared to last year this quarter.

當您考慮這項業務時，請記住，公司的最低工資上調大部分是在 2022 年期間進行的。除了我們向每小時 25 美元的目標邁進之外，我們在年中做出的提高對這項業務的影響超過任何其他業務。然而，與去年相比，本季度它幫助推動了減員業務的一半。

On Slide 19, you can see some of the digital statistics around Consumer. We believe that those digital tools, our customers have access toward the key to growing and retaining customer relationships. These tools also help us deliver more efficiently. We now have 45 million users actively engaged in our digital properties. They log in 1 billion times a month. Erica, our artificial intelligence-driven personal assistant, saw usage rise 35% just in the past year. The number of our customers using Zelle grew 21% in the past year.

在幻燈片 19 上，您可以看到有關消費者的一些數字統計數據。我們相信，通過這些數字工具，我們的客戶可以獲得發展和保持客戶關係的關鍵。這些工具還幫助我們更有效地交付。我們現在有 4500 萬用戶積極參與我們的數字資產。他們每月登錄 10 億次。 Erica 是我們人工智能驅動的個人助理，僅在過去一年，其使用率就增長了 35%。在過去的一年裡，我們使用 Zelle 的客戶數量增長了 21%。

Remember, these aren't new functionalities just being put in place. These are growing off a high scale and shows the Bank of America impact on these products. On Zelle, remember back in mid-2021, Zelle transactions crossed the number of checks written for our clients. Now it's 60% higher less than 2 years later, and you can see the growth in digital sales that continues.

請記住，這些並不是剛剛實施的新功能。這些正在大規模增長，並顯示了美國銀行對這些產品的影響。在 Zelle 上，請記住早在 2021 年年中，Zelle 的交易就超過了為我們客戶開出的支票數量。現在不到 2 年就高出 60%，您可以看到數字銷售的持續增長。

We remain focused on growing the customer base and delivering the best-in-class tools and service that make us more efficient and more important to our clients in the Consumer business. And Dean Athanasia and the team continue to do a good job with respect to those goals.

我們仍然專注於擴大客戶群並提供一流的工具和服務，使我們在消費者業務中對我們的客戶更有效率和更重要。 Dean Athanasia 和團隊在實現這些目標方面繼續做得很好。

On Slide 20, we move to Wealth Management. We had good results, earning about a little over $900 million after tax in the quarter. These results were down from last year, as Alastair said, as asset management fees fell with a negative market levels in equity and fixed income. Those fees were mitigated by the beneficial impact of revenue from the sizable banking business within this line of business for us.

在幻燈片 20 上，我們轉到財富管理。我們取得了不錯的成績，本季度稅後收入略高於 9 億美元。正如阿拉斯泰爾所說，這些結果低於去年，因為資產管理費隨著股票和固定收益的負市場水平而下降。這些費用因我們在這一業務範圍內的大規模銀行業務收入的有利影響而減輕。

As I noted a moment ago, both Merrill and the Private Bank saw organic revenue growth and provided solid client flows of $25 billion in the quarter. Our assets under management flows of $15 billion reflects some of the movement of deposits noted earlier, but we also saw a $33 billion of brokerage flows. Expenses reflect lower revenue-related incentives but also reflect continued investments in the business as we continue to add financial advisers.

正如我剛才提到的，美林和私人銀行都實現了有機收入增長，並在本季度提供了 250 億美元的穩定客戶流量。我們管理的資產流量為 150 億美元，反映了前面提到的部分存款變動，但我們也看到了 330 億美元的經紀流量。費用反映了較低的收入相關激勵措施，但也反映了隨著我們繼續增加財務顧問而對業務的持續投資。

We've added more than 650 wealth advisers in the past year alone. As we move forward, we are excited to have Eric Schmidt and Lindsay Hans lead this business. They work closely with Katy Knox to drive our Global Wealth and Investment Management business across the company.

僅在過去一年，我們就增加了 650 多名財富顧問。隨著我們的前進，我們很高興 Eric Schmidt 和 Lindsay Hans 領導這項業務。他們與 Katy Knox 密切合作，推動我們在整個公司的全球財富和投資管理業務。

As we go to Global Wealth & Investment Management Digital on Slide 21, you can see the statistics here. Just as with the Consumer business, these clients become more and more digitally engaged across time. Our advisers have led the way in driving a personal-driven advice model supplemented by our digital tools. On Slide 21, you can see the client digital adoption rate of 84% with Merrill and the Private Bank is over 90%. More than 75% embraced digital delivery of their statements, which as a key tool their service, providing more convenience for them and our adviser. Erica and Zelle interactions continue to grow here also, even among these wealthy clients.

當我們轉到幻燈片 21 上的全球財富與投資管理數字時，您可以在此處查看統計數據。與消費者業務一樣，這些客戶隨著時間的推移變得越來越數字化。我們的顧問在推動以我們的數字工具為補充的個人驅動建議模型方面處於領先地位。在幻燈片 21 上，您可以看到 Merrill 的客戶數字採用率為 84%，而私人銀行則超過 90%。超過 75% 的人接受了他們的聲明的數字交付，這是他們服務的一個關鍵工具，為他們和我們的顧問提供了更多的便利。 Erica 和 Zelle 的互動在這裡也繼續增長，即使在這些富有的客戶之間也是如此。

On Slide 22, you see the Global Banking results. This business produced very strong results, growing revenue 19% year-to-year to $6.2 billion. The business earned $2.6 billion after tax. While investment banking remains sluggish, our Global Treasury Services business has been robust, leading to strong revenue performance. Loan activity has been good across this business also. As noted earlier, the deposit flows appear to have stabilized in March, and we benefit from some customer flows during the flight to safety during the quarter.

在幻燈片 22 上，您可以看到全球銀行業的結果。該業務產生了非常強勁的業績，收入同比增長 19% 至 62 億美元。該業務稅後收入為 26 億美元。儘管投資銀行業務仍然低迷，但我們的全球資金服務業務一直強勁，帶來了強勁的收入表現。該業務的貸款活動也很好。如前所述，存款流量似乎在 3 月份趨於穩定，我們從本季度逃往安全資產期間的一些客戶流量中受益。

The company's overall investment banking fees were $1.2 billion in quarter 1. And while down from quarter 1 '22, we saw a modest improvement from quarter 4 '22. Provision expense declined year-over-year as prior year's reserve build compared to release in the current period. Credit quality of this business, again, remains very strong. Expense increased 10% year-over-year, driven by strategic investments in the business, including relationship management, hiring and technology costs.

公司第一季度的整體投資銀行費用為 12 億美元。雖然比 22 年第一季度有所下降，但我們看到與 22 年第四季度相比略有改善。撥備費用同比下降，因為與本期釋放相比，上一年的準備金增加。該業務的信用質量仍然非常強勁。受業務戰略投資（包括關係管理、招聘和技術成本）的推動，費用同比增長 10%。

Digital engagement, as shown on Slide 23 with our global banking customers. These commercial customers continue to grow in importance as treasurers and others appreciate the ease of doing business with us through these tools. While the volume of transactions, the sheer number isn't the same as consumer, the volume of money moved is tremendous.

數字參與，如幻燈片 23 所示，我們與全球銀行客戶的互動。隨著財務主管和其他人欣賞通過這些工具與我們開展業務的便利性，這些商業客戶的重要性繼續增長。雖然交易量，絕對數量與消費者不同，但轉移的資金量是巨大的。

Next business will go towards our Global Markets business on Slide 24. Jimmy DeMare and the team had another strong quarter of results, growing year-over-year earnings to nearly $1.7 billion after tax. The continuing themes of inflation due to political tensions and Central Bank's changing monetary policies around the globe drove volatility in the bond and equity markets, which this team did a good job managing.

接下來的業務將轉向我們在幻燈片 24 上的全球市場業務。Jimmy DeMare 和團隊又取得了強勁的季度業績，稅後收益同比增長至近 17 億美元。由於政治緊張局勢和中央銀行在全球範圍內不斷變化的貨幣政策，通貨膨脹的持續主題推動了債券和股票市場的波動，該團隊在管理方面做得很好。

As a result, it was a quarter we saw a strong performance in our credit trading business, particularly in mortgages and munis trading, and macro trading again fared well buoyed by strong client activity and secured financing. Investments made in this business over the last few years continue to produce favorable results.

因此，本季度我們的信貸交易業務表現強勁，尤其是抵押貸款和市政債券交易，而宏觀交易在強勁的客戶活動和擔保融資的推動下再次表現良好。過去幾年對該業務的投資繼續產生良好的結果。

Just focus on the sales and trading numbers alone, ex DVA, revenue improved 9% year-over-year to $5.1 billion, and it improved to 29%, while equities were down 19% compared to quarter 1 2022. Year-over-year expense increased 8%, primarily driven by continued investments as stated in this business.

僅關註銷售和交易數據（不包括 DVA），收入同比增長 9% 至 51 億美元，增長至 29%，而股票與 2022 年第一季度相比下跌 19%。費用增加了 8%，主要是由於該業務中所述的持續投資所推動。

Finally on Slide 5, you can see the all other shows a modest loss, which included the $220 million of losses in securities sold Alastair mentioned earlier. The last, I would note our 10% effective tax rate this quarter continues to benefit us from a strong business with clients supporting environmental investments and housing investments to produce tax benefits. Excluding those and other discrete tax benefits, our tax rate would have been 26%.

最後在幻燈片 5 上，您可以看到所有其他的都顯示出適度的損失，其中包括前面提到的 Alastair 出售的 2.2 億美元證券損失。最後，我要指出的是，本季度我們 10% 的有效稅率繼續使我們受益於強大的業務，客戶支持環境投資和住房投資以產生稅收優惠。排除這些和其他離散的稅收優惠，我們的稅率將是 26%。

So in summary, a strong quarter by our team delivered for you, our shareholders, operating leverage, organic growth, strong credit, capital return and strong ROTC.

因此，總而言之，我們的團隊為您、我們的股東、經營槓桿、有機增長、強勁的信貸、資本回報和強大的 ROTC 帶來了強勁的季度。

With that, let's jump to Q&A.

有了這個，讓我們跳到問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We'll take our first question from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

我們將從 Seaport Global 的 Jim Mitchell 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Maybe just one question on the NII's trajectory. You guys remain asset sensitive in the banking book, but the forward curve, as I think you pointed out, currently expects 3 rate cuts by the end of the year. If that plays out, how do you think about that impact on NII in the back half of the year? What are the puts and takes as we think about NII beyond 2Q?

也許只是關於 NII 軌蹟的一個問題。你們在銀行賬戶中仍然對資產敏感，但正如我認為你指出的那樣，遠期曲線目前預計到今年年底將降息 3 次。如果發生這種情況，您如何看待下半年對 NII 的影響？當我們考慮 2Q 之後的 NII 時，看跌期權和看跌期權是什麼？

So Jim, I think right now, the expectations for the market in terms of whether or not there'll be another hike in May, that's bouncing around pretty good. Similarly, you got a question of whether or not there's 2 cuts in the back half or 3. So we're operating with the same information you are. We're looking at the forward curve day-to-day thinking that through. At the same time, we're looking at our deposit balances. They're performing kind of the way we would think, and we're competing for rate paid.

所以吉姆，我認為現在市場對 5 月份是否會再次加息的預期非常好。同樣，你有一個問題，後半部分是否有 2 次或 3 次削減。所以我們正在使用與你相同的信息進行操作。我們每天都在研究遠期曲線。與此同時，我們正在查看我們的存款餘額。他們的表現有點像我們想像的那樣，我們正在爭奪支付率。

So I'd say, generally speaking, at this point, we feel pretty good about NII. It's obviously going to be up this year pretty significantly. And look, we don't provide guidance for a full year for a very simple reason. It just comes down to, it's very difficult to predict what the Fed is going to do 6 months and 9 months out. But let me put it this way, we can see where consensus is. Consensus is right around $57 billion, plus or minus. That's sort of a number that would imply us up for the year, 7% to 8%.

所以我想說，一般來說，在這一點上，我們對 NII 感覺很好。今年顯然會大幅上漲。看，出於一個非常簡單的原因，我們不提供一整年的指導。歸根結底，很難預測美聯儲在 6 個月和 9 個月後會做什麼。但讓我這樣說吧，我們可以看到共識在哪裡。共識是大約 570 億美元，上下浮動。這是一個暗示我們今年增長 7% 到 8% 的數字。

I mean, I think we're pretty comfortable there, but it's just so many moving parts. That's why we don't provide the guidance.

我的意思是，我認為我們在那裡很舒服，但它只是有很多活動部件。這就是我們不提供指導的原因。

No, that's all fair. And maybe just pivoting to the trading business. You had another strong quarter and outperformed peers in the fixed income business. Is there anything unusually strong there? Or do you believe you guys have made some sustainable market share gains in that business given your recent investments?

不，這很公平。也許只是轉向貿易業務。你有另一個強勁的季度，並且在固定收益業務中表現優於同行。那裡有什麼異常強大的東西嗎？或者你認為你們最近的投資在該業務中取得了一些可持續的市場份額增長？

Well, I think the team is doing a really good job. Brian talked about that. A couple of years ago, we made a decision as a team that it was important for us to invest more in that business, and we did that. And we've made pretty significant investments in equities and in fixed income. And we felt like in particular, we could continue to grow our macro businesses, which we've done. And that's what has done a really good job until this quarter.

好吧，我認為團隊做得非常好。布賴恩談到了這一點。幾年前，我們作為一個團隊做出了一個決定，那就是對我們來說，對該業務進行更多投資很重要，而且我們做到了。我們在股票和固定收益方面進行了相當大的投資。我們特別覺得，我們可以繼續發展我們已經完成的宏觀業務。這就是本季度之前做得非常好的事情。

This quarter, we just happened to fire on more cylinders, particularly in FICC. Because this quarter, we had a great quarter for our micro products. And you kind of expect that because it was a better quarter for them with positive returns there. So mortgages, credit, munis, financing, futures, FX, all of them had a pretty good quarter. And I think Jim and the team are just executing at a really high level. So they just got to keep at it.

本季度，我們恰好開火了更多的氣瓶，尤其是在 FICC 方面。因為這個季度，我們的微型產品有一個很好的季度。你有點期待，因為這對他們來說是一個更好的季度，那裡有積極的回報。因此，抵押貸款、信貸、市政債券、融資、期貨、外匯，所有這些都有一個很好的季度。而且我認為 Jim 和團隊的執行水平非常高。所以他們只需要堅持下去。

We'll take our next question from Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們將從瑞銀的 Erika Najarian 那裡回答下一個問題。

Alastair, just a clarification. You gave us the quarterly expected trajectory for expenses. Do you still expect to hit $62.5 billion or so of full year expenses in '23?

阿拉斯泰爾，只是一個澄清。你給了我們季度預期的支出軌跡。您是否仍預計 23 年的全年支出將達到 625 億美元左右？

Right now, that's our expectation. I mean we're 90 days into the quarter -- into the year rather. Obviously, as we're looking forward, we see -- we know the headcount is coming down. So that's going to be a tailwind all the way through the course of the year. So we don't have any change in our expectations right now. We're going to see how the year develops. We still got a little bit of a headwind in terms of something like -- our sales and trading business having a very good revenue year. And we're still investing in the business. So it will be a dogfight, particularly as we get into the back half of the year, but we still feel good about where we are with respect to expense.

現在，這是我們的期望。我的意思是我們已經進入本季度 90 天了——更確切地說是進入了一年。顯然，正如我們期待的那樣，我們看到 - 我們知道員工人數正在減少。因此，這將成為全年的順風。所以我們現在的期望沒有任何變化。我們將看看這一年的發展情況。在某些方面，我們仍然遇到了一些不利因素——我們的銷售和貿易業務的收入年度非常好。我們仍在投資這項業務。所以這將是一場混戰，尤其是當我們進入今年下半年時，但我們仍然對我們在費用方面的狀況感到滿意。

Got it. And my second question is for Brian. Brian, you produced a significant amount of revenue this quarter and grew your CET1. At the same time, I think that a lot of investors are looking down the path of significant macro uncertainty. As we take that into account, how should we think about the buyback activity going forward, especially ahead of the stress test results in June?

知道了。我的第二個問題是給 Brian 的。布賴恩，您本季度產生了大量收入並提高了您的 CET1。與此同時，我認為很多投資者正在展望重大宏觀不確定性的道路。考慮到這一點，我們應該如何考慮未來的回購活動，尤其是在 6 月的壓力測試結果出爐之前？

I think you saw this quarter, we continue to adopt our basic -- or apply our basic principles, which is we support the growth in our customer base. We pay the dividends at what we think is a rational rate, and then we use the rest to basically return to you through share buybacks. We're in the middle of stress test, as you just mentioned. We'll have to see the results of that. We also -- but the good news is we crossed the 11.40% this quarter, which basically is in excess -- has a cushion on top of what we need for the first quarter of next year. And so we'll continue to follow our basic principles.

我想你看到這個季度，我們繼續採用我們的基本原則 - 或者應用我們的基本原則，即我們支持客戶群的增長。我們以我們認為合理的比率支付股息，然後我們用剩下的基本上通過股票回購回報給你。正如你剛才提到的，我們正在進行壓力測試。我們將不得不看到結果。我們也——但好消息是我們本季度超過了 11.40%，這基本上已經過剩了——在我們明年第一季度所需的基礎上有了緩衝。因此，我們將繼續遵循我們的基本原則。

So we're -- we feel good -- very good about our capital. And you should expect us to continue to follow the idea to pay the dividend or grow organic -- support the organic growth, pay the dividend and buy back shares, but we've got to get through the near term sort of what goes on in our business every year at this time.

所以我們——我們感覺很好——對我們的資本非常滿意。你應該期望我們繼續遵循支付股息或有機增長的想法——支持有機增長，支付股息並回購股票，但我們必須在短期內完成我們的生意每年都在這個時候。

We'll go next to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起去 Ken Usdin 旁邊。

Just wondering on the deposit side, if you can help us understand, there's obviously the ongoing mix shift, which you referred to and gave us a lot of great detail on it. Just wondering where -- as you think forward, how much more mix shift are you expecting in terms of DDAs as a percentage of total deposits? And how do you expect that to also look as you think across the businesses with regards to just where customers are moving funds incrementally?

只是想知道在存款方面，如果你能幫助我們理解，顯然正在進行混合轉變，你提到了這一點並給了我們很多關於它的細節。只是想知道 - 正如您所想的那樣，您期望 DDA 在總存款中所佔的百分比有多少變化？您如何看待您對整個企業的看法，即客戶在何處逐步轉移資金？

Yes. I think, Ken, we think this -- whatever it takes is a big bulk thing, Bank of America, but it's really -- and then it looks at broad categories, interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing accounts and try to do -- you have to really think about customer bases and what they do with their money. And so there's transactional cash, whether that's for a consumer running their household day-to-day -- a wealthy consumer running their household day-to-day, which may have different level of expenses; and then the commercial customers who run their business day to day and then have excess cash from that if they're successful; and then how they all play that through. So I think -- we think transactional cash and investment cash.

是的。我認為，肯，我們認為這——無論需要什麼，都是一件大事，美國銀行，但它確實——然後它著眼於廣泛的類別，生息和非生息賬戶，並嘗試做——您必須真正考慮客戶群以及他們用錢做什麼。因此，存在交易現金，無論是針對日常經營家庭的消費者——富有的消費者日常經營家庭，可能有不同程度的支出；然後是日常經營業務的商業客戶，如果他們成功的話，他們會從中獲得多餘的現金；然後他們是如何完成的。所以我認為 - 我們認為交易現金和投資現金。

You've seen a lot of the investment cash, so to speak, as Alastair mentioned earlier, we price competitively for that. That moves around. But the good news is we have a massive investment platform where we put that money to work for our customers if they don't need it to manage their day-to-day household.

你已經看到了很多投資現金，可以這麼說，正如阿拉斯泰爾之前提到的那樣，我們的定價具有競爭力。那四處走動。但好消息是，我們擁有一個龐大的投資平台，如果客戶不需要這筆錢來管理日常家庭，我們可以將這筆錢用於為他們工作。

So in our NII estimates, our view of what happens in the future. I think the key for the consumer business is to remember that we got $700 billion of excess deposits over its loans. It's generating a lot of excess deposits. That grew $300-odd billion from pre-pandemic. It has been stable.

因此，在我們的 NII 估計中，我們對未來發生的事情的看法。我認為消費者業務的關鍵是要記住我們有 7000 億美元的超額存款超過其貸款。它產生了大量的超額存款。這比大流行前增加了 300 多億美元。一直很穩定。

Checking balances, if you look at those charts we gave you to show you the near-term movement are stable. That generates at a total all-in cost of 10 to 15 basis points, a lot of the value in a franchise and meaning, including interest-bearing part of that franchise when you think about deposits across time and then like businesses. So you'd expect some of those trends to continue in terms of customers have excess cash, putting it to work differently. We expect the deposit rates to move to -- continue to match the market.

檢查餘額，如果你看一下我們給你的那些圖表，你會看到近期的走勢是穩定的。這產生了 10 到 15 個基點的總成本，特許經營權的很多價值和意義，包括當你考慮跨時間存款然後像企業時該特許經營權的生息部分。因此，您預計其中一些趨勢會繼續存在，因為客戶擁有多餘的現金，從而以不同的方式運作。我們預計存款利率將繼續與市場相匹配。

But the broad value of this deposit franchise is driven by the money people leave us because it's transactional cash, which is in motion, and we don't pay interest on, and that is both the consumers, wealthy customers and businesses. So it's hard -- it's a very detailed question of which we spent a lot of time looking at or the team does, as you might imagine.

但這種存款特許經營權的廣泛價值是由人們離開我們的錢驅動的，因為它是交易現金，它在流動，我們不支付利息，這既是消費者、富有的客戶和企業。所以這很難——這是一個非常詳細的問題，我們花了很多時間研究這個問題，或者團隊花了很多時間，就像你想像的那樣。

Okay. And the other question is just then, Alastair, you walked through how you've been changing the composition of the securities portfolio and still benefiting from those variable rate swaps. I'm just wondering if you can help us understand what happens from here in terms of should you continue to get benefits from those variable rate swaps? And then also just do you -- have you done any positioning -- repositioning underneath the surface? It looks like there were some securities losses. So how much room do you have to continue to kind of rework the portfolio and grind more income out of the book even as you shrink it?

好的。另一個問題是，阿拉斯泰爾，你已經了解了你是如何改變證券投資組合的構成並仍然從這些可變利率掉期中獲益的。我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解從這裡發生的事情，即您是否應該繼續從這些可變利率掉期中獲益？然後你也只是 - 你做了任何定位 - 在表面下重新定位嗎？看起來有一些證券損失。那麼，即使您縮減投資組合，您還有多少空間可以繼續修改投資組合併從賬簿中獲得更多收入？

Yes. So Ken, think about -- I mean the easiest way to think about those treasuries, they're swapped to floating. So they're essentially cash. And actually, this quarter, we ended up converting some of them into cash just because it's simpler. It's simpler for everyone to understand, and it's obviously a pretty good bid for treasuries this quarter. So we just converted them into cash. That's what accounted for some of the securities loss there. It's a couple of hundred million.

是的。所以肯，想一想——我的意思是考慮這些國庫券的最簡單方法，它們被換成了浮動的。所以它們本質上是現金。實際上，本季度，我們最終將其中一些轉化為現金，因為它更簡單。每個人都更容易理解，並且這顯然是本季度國債的不錯出價。所以我們只是把它們換成現金。這就是造成那裡部分證券損失的原因。有好幾億。

But I think the way to think about it is as the overall securities portfolio -- remember, we got cash. We've got available for sale. You can always think about that as enhanced cash, and then you've got hold to maturity. As that continues to pay down, we're just sweeping it right now into cash. That's something I've talked about in the last couple of quarters. And we're putting in cash because, number one, it's a really high-yielding asset. Number two, it gives us a lot of options during a period of volatility. So pretty straightforward at this point.

但我認為考慮它的方式是整體證券投資組合——記住，我們有現金。我們有貨出售。你總是可以將其視為增強現金，然後你就可以持有至到期。隨著這筆錢繼續減少，我們現在只是把它變成現金。這是我在過去幾個季度中談到的事情。我們投入現金是因為，第一，這是一種非常高收益的資產。第二，它在動盪時期為我們提供了很多選擇。在這一點上非常簡單。

Our next question comes from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Mike Mayo。

Well, I guess, the topic of the day, week and the month is to what degree are your assets matched with your liabilities? And I'm staring at Slide 11. And you've seen the front page of many papers highlighting your unrealized securities losses. You highlight the yield on your securities at 2.6%. You highlighted your held-to-maturity portfolio at 8 years. That would all suggest to some that you're not so well matched.

好吧，我想，每天、每周和每月的主題是您的資產與負債的匹配程度如何？我正在盯著幻燈片 11。你已經看到許多報紙的頭版都強調了你未實現的證券損失。您強調您的證券收益率為 2.6%。您強調了 8 年的持有至到期投資組合。這會向一些人暗示你們不太匹配。

On the other hand, what you don't provide or at least I didn't see it, the change in the value of your deposits or even the duration of your deposits. So the basic question is can you describe to what degree your assets are matched with your liabilities and where you think you may have been off or on the mark?

另一方面，你沒有提供或者至少我沒有看到，你的存款價值的變化，甚至是你存款期限的變化。所以最基本的問題是，您能否描述一下您的資產與負債的匹配程度，以及您認為自己可能在哪些方面不符合標準？

Yes. So Mike, I'll start. Brian can add anything he chooses to. But one of the reasons that we spend as much time laying out the deposit franchise is because in a rising rate environment, you'd expect, obviously, that bond marks are going to turn negative. And at the same time, you and we have been expecting, as rates go up, the NII would rise because the deposits are so much more valuable in that environment.

是的。邁克，我要開始了。 Brian 可以添加他選擇的任何內容。但我們花那麼多時間來規劃存款特許經營權的原因之一是，在利率上升的環境中，你顯然會期望債券標記會變成負值。與此同時，你和我們一直在期待，隨著利率上升，NII 會上升，因為存款在那種環境下更有價值。

What we laid out for you for everyone to see is just how broad and stable and diversified is this deposit base. We think it's very long tenured. That's why we're laying out some of these things around just how long the relationships are in Consumer and in Wealth and in Global Banking. And it's one of the reasons why...

我們擺給大家看的就是這個存款基礎是多麼的廣泛、穩定和多樣化。我們認為它的任期很長。這就是為什麼我們要圍繞消費者、財富和全球銀行業中的關係持續多久來佈置其中的一些內容。這也是為什麼...的原因之一

Alastair, if I can just interrupt. When you say long tenure, can you put any numbers around that range? Because I think that's the one biggest, most important number. If you could just -- some kind of frame that a little bit.

阿拉斯泰爾，如果我能打斷一下。當你說長期任期時，你能給出這個範圍內的任何數字嗎？因為我認為這是最大、最重要的數字。如果你可以 - 某種框架，那一點點。

Yes, I think if you took a look at Slide #9, we've tried to lay that out for you. So you take a look at in Consumer, for example, you're talking about 67% of the clients have been with us for more than 10 years. That's pretty long tenured. I know from my time in the commercial bank, our clients on average were 17 years with us. You have long operational deposits in all of these businesses. So that's what we're trying to lay out in front of everyone so you can see that.

是的，我想如果你看一下幻燈片 #9，我們已經盡力為你列出了。所以你看看消費者，例如，你說的是 67% 的客戶已經和我們在一起超過 10 年了。那是相當長的任期。我從我在商業銀行的經歷中了解到，我們的客戶平均在我們這里工作了 17 年。您在所有這些業務中都有長期的運營存款。所以這就是我們試圖在每個人面前展示的內容，以便您可以看到。

Okay. I'm sorry, I interrupted. But go ahead.

好的。對不起，我打擾了。但是繼續吧。

Now, I can't remember where I was.

現在，我不記得我在哪裡。

You were talking about the underlying securities loss of the NII went higher that's part of the benefits of having the deposits...

你說的是 NII 的基礎證券損失增加了，這是有存款的好處的一部分......

No, I think what I'm trying to convey to you, too, Mike, and you know how this works, we've got to balance all of this because we have to think about the entire balance sheet. And there's a lot going on with the entire balance sheet. And so what we're trying to do is invest that excess, which has existed now in hundreds of billions for many, many years. We've got to invest in the best way we can.

不，我想我也想向你傳達什麼，邁克，你知道這是如何運作的，我們必須平衡所有這些，因為我們必須考慮整個資產負債表。整個資產負債表發生了很多變化。因此，我們正在努力做的是投資那些過剩的東西，這些過剩的東西現在已經以數千億美元的規模存在了很多很多年。我們必須以最好的方式進行投資。

And the way we do that, we talk about balancing it is we're, number one, trying to make sure we grow capital. We've done that. We're up 100 basis points there in the last year. Number two, we're trying to grow liquidity. We added $23 billion this past quarter. Number three, we're trying to grow earnings. We're at $8.2 billion. It's one of our best earnings quarters ever. So look, we can always be better. You know that we're taking the portfolio and we're just making it smaller. It's run off now 6 quarters in a row.

我們這樣做的方式，我們談論平衡它是我們，第一，努力確保我們增加資本。我們已經做到了。去年我們在那裡上漲了 100 個基點。第二，我們正在努力增加流動性。我們在上個季度增加了 230 億美元。第三，我們正在努力增加收入。我們的收入為 82 億美元。這是我們有史以來最好的收益季度之一。所以看，我們總是可以做得更好。你知道我們正在採取投資組合，我們只是讓它更小。現在已經連續 6 個季度結束。

We're taking all of that and flowing it into cash and loans. That's what we've been doing. We'll just continue doing that, and the portfolio is going to get smaller and shorter over time. And when you look at the asset sensitivity now relative to rates going up 100 or rates going down 100, we're pretty balanced there, too. We're sort of up $3.3 billion if rates go up 100. We're down $3.6 billion if rates go down 100. So we feel like we're in a pretty balanced place and a lot of flexibility at this point.

我們正在把所有這些都變成現金和貸款。這就是我們一直在做的。我們將繼續這樣做，隨著時間的推移，投資組合將變得越來越小。當你看一下現在相對於利率上升 100 或利率下降 100 的資產敏感度時，我們在那裡也很平衡。如果利率上升 100，我們將增加 33 億美元。如果利率下降 100，我們將減少 36 億美元。所以我們覺得我們目前處於一個非常平衡的位置並且有很大的靈活性。

And then just a follow-up. I guess some will take your greatest strength as a weakness, that is you don't pay as much on deposits as others. I estimate that you have the lowest cycle-to-date deposit data. And so what is it that keeps your customers around if you're not going to pay them as much?

然後只是跟進。我想有些人會把你最大的優點當成缺點，那就是你不像其他人那樣支付那麼多存款。我估計您擁有最低的周期至今存款數據。那麼，如果您不打算付那麼多錢，是什麼讓您的客戶留下來呢？

Well, I think if you look at the value proposition that we're talking about, if you go to the Consumer business, for example, they've invested so much in client experience, whether it's the financial centers, renovation; whether it's the new -- the people that we've added in that business over a long period of time; whether it's the digital, the mobile, preferred rewards, ours is a relationship model and it has been.

好吧，我想如果你看看我們正在談論的價值主張，例如，如果你去消費者業務，他們在客戶體驗方面投入了很多，無論是金融中心，翻新；是否是新的——我們在很長一段時間內在該業務中增加的人員；無論是數字、移動、首選獎勵，我們的都是一種關係模型，而且一直如此。

And if you look then like -- just think about this quarter, look at the organic growth in consumer, again, that's 130,000 net new checking, 17 quarters in a row based on that relationship value proposition. That's what we're attracting.

如果你看起來像 - 想想這個季度，再看看消費者的有機增長，那是 130,000 個淨新支票，基於這種關係價值主張，連續 17 個季度。這就是我們所吸引的。

If you go to the Wealth Management business, this was a record quarter for net new households for Merrill Lynch and a record for the Private Bank this quarter. That tells you, we're offering people something that's valuable. And then we added 35,000 new bank accounts for people in our Wealth Management franchise. So that, again, is a significant indicator that what we're offering has value to people.

如果你去財富管理業務，這個季度是美林的淨新家庭創紀錄的季度，也是本季度私人銀行的創紀錄的季度。這告訴你，我們正在為人們提供有價值的東西。然後我們為我們的財富管理專營權人員增加了 35,000 個新的銀行賬戶。因此，這又是一個重要指標，表明我們提供的產品對人們有價值。

And if I were to go back to my old business in business banking and commercial banking, they're adding new logos and new clients over time in a way that we're really happy with right now. So I think the ultimate answer is we are a purpose-driven company who put our clients' interests first. That is helping make their financial lives better. And in this period of time, people want stability, and that's what we offer.

如果我要回到我在商業銀行和商業銀行業務中的舊業務，他們會隨著時間的推移以我們現在非常滿意的方式添加新徽標和新客戶。所以我認為最終的答案是我們是一家以目標為導向的公司，將客戶的利益放在首位。這有助於改善他們的財務生活。在這段時間裡，人們想要穩定，而這正是我們提供的。

We'll go next to Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

我們將與 Evercore 一起去 Glenn Schorr 旁邊。

Maybe an easy one. First, it wasn't noticeable, but do you feel like there was a flight-to-quality benefit during the March madness? I would have thought that people would have flocked to the safety of BofA during times like that, but you didn't comment specifically on that?

也許一個簡單的。首先，它並不引人注意，但您是否覺得在三月的狂熱期間有飛向質量的好處？我原以為在那樣的時候人們會湧向美國銀行的安全，但你沒有具體評論嗎？

So we're going to decline, Glenn, to give a specific number. We're pretty confident we saw noticeable flight to safety. And it comes in 2 parts. Part 1 is during a period like March 10 and around that week or 2. And then there's a second part that comes with onboarding clients over a period of time who are trying to move operational accounts here, and that takes a while. That has a lag.

因此，格倫，我們將拒絕提供具體數字。我們非常有信心看到明顯的安全飛行。它分為兩部分。第 1 部分是在 3 月 10 日和那一周或 2 週左右的時間段內進行的。然後是第二部分，在一段時間內，入職客戶試圖將運營賬戶轉移到這裡，這需要一段時間。那有一個滯後。

So you can think about, we get some of the deposits quite quickly, but relationships take a longer time to build and onboard. So you can see from our numbers, it was improving before the disruption. We've chosen not to put an exact number on it because they're typical ebbs and flows in any given quarter, leading up, especially to a payroll end of quarter.

所以你可以想一想，我們很快就拿到了一些存款，但建立和建立關係需要更長的時間。所以你可以從我們的數字中看到，在中斷之前它正在改善。我們選擇不給出確切的數字，因為它們是任何給定季度的典型潮起潮落，導致特別是季度末的工資單。

But generally speaking, I'd say, we were improving anyway. A lot of that is just organic growth, but we obviously benefited.

但總的來說，我會說，無論如何我們都在進步。其中很多只是有機增長，但我們顯然受益匪淺。

Okay. You noted the one more hike and then cuts to the back half of the year. That's the forward curve. What's interesting is the Fed doesn't have the same forward curve as the market has. So I'm curious if you could talk through the sensitivity of what if there are no cuts, how much of that helps your forward NII thought process?

好的。你注意到又一次加息，然後削減到今年下半年。這就是前向曲線。有趣的是，美聯儲沒有與市場相同的遠期曲線。所以我很好奇你是否可以談談如果沒有削減的敏感性，這對你的前瞻性 NII 思維過程有多大幫助？

Well, we do use the forward curve because we feel like it's the most kind of dispassionate assessment with the most information out there in the market from the broadest set of people. And importantly, it's not just us making it up. So we use the forward curve. And I even mentioned during my remarks, things are bouncing around, around. Is it 1 hike? Is it 0? Is it 2 cuts?

好吧，我們確實使用了遠期曲線，因為我們覺得這是最冷靜的評估，從最廣泛的人群中獲得了市場上最多的信息。重要的是，這不僅僅是我們編造的。所以我們使用遠期曲線。我什至在我的發言中提到，事情是來來回回的。是1次遠足嗎？是0嗎？是2刀嗎？

But the sensitivity that we provide around up 100 or down 100 is probably the best we can offer at this stage. And then depending on how things develop, and they're developing quickly, it will allow you to adjust the model accordingly.

但我們提供的大約 100 或 100 左右的靈敏度可能是我們現階段可以提供的最佳靈敏度。然後根據事情的發展情況，而且發展得很快，它會讓你相應地調整模型。

The last simple one is held to maturity. You talked a lot about it. I think the answer is -- I know it, but I'll ask it bluntly anyway. So do you don't feel like you have to do anything material with your unrealized loss because it's just -- I get it. It's in treasuries, it's swap, it's agency mortgages. You don't have the credit issue. But at this point, given the stability of your deposit base, loan growth, capital growth, do you feel like you can just kind of ride it out and grind it down?

最後一個簡單的持有至到期。你談了很多。我認為答案是——我知道，但無論如何我都會直截了當地問。那麼，您是否覺得您不必為未實現的損失做任何實質性的事情，因為它只是——我明白了。它存在於國庫券中，存在於掉期交易中，存在於機構抵押貸款中。你沒有信用問題。但在這一點上，考慮到你的存款基礎、貸款增長、資本增長的穩定性，你是否覺得你可以安然度過難關並磨碎它？

Correct. Right now, that's exactly what we've been doing. We've communicated that pretty clearly, and that's what we're continuing to do. It just keeps getting smaller and shorter.

正確的。現在，這正是我們一直在做的。我們已經非常清楚地傳達了這一點，這就是我們將繼續做的事情。它只會越來越小越來越短。

We'll go next to Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將與 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak 一起討論。

Alastair, you'd mentioned some of the strong KPIs that you're seeing within GWIM. At the same time, the business did see a pretty material decline in pretax margins both sequentially and year-on-year. I wanted to better understand how the business might evolve under some of the new leadership and how we should just be thinking about the margin trajectory? I wanted to better understand how you're balancing investment needs with the goal of delivering continued profitability?

Alastair，您提到了您在 GWIM 中看到的一些強大的 KPI。與此同時，該業務的稅前利潤率確實出現了相當大的環比和同比下降。我想更好地了解業務在一些新領導下可能會如何發展，以及我們應該如何考慮利潤率軌跡？我想更好地了解您如何平衡投資需求與實現持續盈利的目標？

The margin came down largely because you had the sort of incremental hit to the investment side revenue as the markets fell year-over-year. But we'd expect that margin to move back up to it's more traditional 20% -- 25% to 30%. But you also have to remember, they are a big beneficiary or hit of the elevated payroll taxes and other things in the first quarter because as a percentage of our compensation in the company, they're not a small amount.

利潤率下降主要是因為隨著市場同比下滑，投資方面的收入受到了某種增量打擊。但我們預計該利潤率將回升至更傳統的 20%——25% 至 30%。但你也必須記住，他們是第一季度提高工資稅和其他事情的一大受益者或打擊，因為作為我們在公司薪酬中所佔的百分比，他們不是一個小數目。

So -- but we expect that to move back in the high 20s. But we have been working on this business to continue to improve the digitization of the services side of it. So basically, if you think about it, you get a dollar's worth of revenue and you take about half past the compensation in the financial advisory grids and the other payouts and then we take the rest of it and convert it to about a 30% deposit, the other half and converted about 30 percentage points or 60% at the profit pretax this quarter, down a little bit because of payroll.

所以 - 但我們預計它會回到 20 多歲的高位。但是我們一直致力於這項業務，以繼續改善其服務方面的數字化。所以基本上，如果你考慮一下，你會得到一美元的收入，你會在財務諮詢表格和其他支出中拿走大約一半的報酬，然後我們拿走剩下的，並將其轉換為大約 30% 的存款，另一半在本季度的稅前利潤中轉換了約 30 個百分點或 60%，由於工資單而略有下降。

So we feel very good about where we stand on a relative basis, but one of the things the team continues to work on across Eric and Lindsay and Katy is to drive operational excellence to a new level in that business because we believe that there's still a lot of costs that can come out around the simplicity -- more simple straightforward products, the delivery of those products, the paper-based usage and things like that.

因此，相對而言，我們對自己所處的位置感到非常滿意，但團隊在 Eric、Lindsay 和 Katy 之間繼續努力的其中一件事就是將該業務的卓越運營提升到一個新的水平，因為我們相信仍然存在圍繞簡單性可能會產生很多成本——更簡單直接的產品、這些產品的交付、基於紙張的使用等等。

And then also, remember, we are making investments advisers. We have 4,000-plus trainees in the businesses across the company. And we believe that the best advisers, one has grown at our -- with our own company, and we continue to do that, and that's a drag on the P&L that we're willing to take to make sure we have adviser growth in the future.

然後，請記住，我們正在製作投資顧問。我們在整個公司的業務中擁有 4,000 多名學員。我們相信最好的顧問，一個已經在我們自己的公司成長起來了，我們會繼續這樣做，這會拖累我們願意採取的損益表，以確保我們在未來。

Helpful color, Brian. And just for my follow-up, I was hoping either you or Alastair could provide just an update on expectations around upcoming regulatory development, specifically how your scenario planning for Basel IV. Any expectations around the FDIC special assessment? There are a lot of items that have been floated just given recent events and the SPV fallout. I was hoping to get some perspective just in terms of regulatory mark-to-market?

有用的顏色，布賴恩。就我的後續行動而言，我希望您或 Alastair 能夠提供有關即將到來的監管發展預期的最新信息，特別是您如何為 Basel IV 進行情景規劃。對FDIC專項評估有何期待？鑑於最近發生的事件和 SPV 的後果，有很多項目已經浮出水面。我只是希望在監管按市值計價方面得到一些看法？

I mean, I think we don't have anything more than you do in a broad sense. But I think at the end of the day, I think this industry has extremely strong capital liquidity and capabilities that we just demonstrated through the pandemic and then through the aftermath of the pandemic and then through inflation and then through a tightening cycle that hasn't happened before. So I feel good about where the industry stands, and I think people have to step back and think about it overall.

我的意思是，我認為我們在廣義上沒有比你們更多的東西。但我認為歸根結底，我認為這個行業具有極強的資本流動性和能力，我們剛剛通過大流行病、大流行病的餘波、通貨膨脹以及尚未出現的緊縮週期證明了這一點之前發生過。所以我對這個行業的現狀感覺很好，我認為人們必須退後一步，全面考慮一下。

And then frankly, this industry in the United States is so much stronger than Europe. It has so much capital per square inch, so to speak, than Europe does to get to ratios, which on numbers are lower, but the amount of capital to get there is pretty unbelievable. So we have twice the capital of European counterparts of similar size, and our ratios are considered to be lower.

然後坦率地說，美國的這個行業比歐洲強太多了。它每平方英寸擁有如此多的資本，可以這麼說，比歐洲要達到的比率要高，後者在數字上要低，但達到那裡的資本數量是相當令人難以置信的。所以我們的資本是同等規模的歐洲同行的兩倍，我們的比率被認為更低。

So obviously, as they pull this together, they've got to make sure they aren't counting the beans in different ways or the gold plating and other things in United States. So hopefully, people start to see the wisdom and making sure they're careful here, and we'll see that play out, but we don't have any special understanding.

很明顯，當他們把這些放在一起時，他們必須確保他們不會以不同的方式計算豆子或美國的鍍金和其他東西。所以希望人們開始看到智慧並確保他們在這裡小心，我們會看到結果，但我們沒有任何特別的理解。

We'll take our next question from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們將從德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor 那裡回答下一個問題。

Just a quick clarification on the balance sheet and a separate question. The cash obviously went up a lot and you did allude to that, moving some of the securities to cash. But the short-term borrowings was also up a lot. And I didn't know if that's just to kind of hold more liquidity in the current environment, and we should assume that continues, which I think, weighs on NIM, but not the dollars? Or was that just temporary in 1Q, and we shouldn't pay too much attention to the period-end trends there?

只是對資產負債表的快速澄清和一個單獨的問題。現金顯然增加了很多，你確實提到了這一點，將一些證券轉為現金。但短期借款也增加了很多。而且我不知道這是否只是為了在當前環境下保持更多的流動性，我們應該假設這種情況繼續下去，我認為這會給 NIM 帶來壓力，而不是美元？還是一季度只是暫時的，我們不應該過多關注那裡的期末趨勢？

It's a little bit of both, Matt. You've got first quarter is just normally a seasonal build for us. So that happens, and a little bit of borrow. And you're right, it doesn't impact NIM because you can invest it in cash straight away, and there's no drag there. But it may hurt NII slightly at the margin by a little bit.

兩者都有一點，馬特。你有第一季度對我們來說通常是季節性的。所以這種情況發生了，還有一點借用。你是對的，它不會影響 NIM，因為你可以直接將其投資為現金，而且沒有任何阻力。但它可能會略微傷害 NII。

Okay. So I think you meant to say, it doesn't hurt the NII dollars that much but it hurts the NIM percent, right?

好的。所以我想你的意思是，它不會對 NII 美元造成太大影響，但會損害 NIM 百分比，對嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Yes. Okay. And then separately, any kind of trends to call out in spending in March? Some of your peers talked about a slowdown in March. And you highlighted kind of for the full quarter, debt and credit card was up 6% year-over-year, total payments up 9%. Any kind of inter-core trends that you want to point to?

是的。好的。然後，三月份的支出有什麼趨勢？你的一些同行談到了 3 月份的經濟放緩。你強調了整個季度，債務和信用卡同比增長 6%，總支付增長 9%。你想指出任何一種核心間趨勢？

I think we saw -- the first part of the quarter, first quarter, being a little bit softer and then we saw a kick back up in March. So far, in April, it's still early. It's probably a little lower than it was for the month of March, but it's a couple of weeks in, so we've got to be a little careful about that just due to the different ways, vacation fall and things like that. So -- but it's -- over the course of last year, the total spending year-over-year increases have slowed down.

我認為我們看到了 - 本季度的第一部分，第一季度，有點疲軟，然後我們在三月份看到了回升。到目前為止，四月，還早。它可能比 3 月份略低，但已經過去幾週了，所以由於不同的方式、假期和類似的事情，我們必須對此保持謹慎。所以——但它是——在去年的過程中，總支出的同比增長已經放緩。

And I think that means it's a precursor to the economy being a little bit slower that we're seeing, and then frankly, consumers being more careful in the use of the cash. Because the cash in their accounts -- in our accounts, especially for the lower income cohorts continues to build, honestly. From peak last April, it fell down a little bit all the course of the year, and it's built back up in the first part of this year.

我認為這意味著它是我們所看到的經濟放緩的先兆，然後坦率地說，消費者在使用現金時更加謹慎。因為老實說，他們賬戶中的現金——在我們的賬戶中，尤其是低收入群體的現金在繼續增加。從去年四月份的峰值開始，全年都在下降，今年上半年又開始回升。

So we'll see that play out. There's been a delay in some of the tax returns, as you know, this year, that pushes them from quarter-to-quarter. But stay tuned. I think it's a little early to call, but it is a little softer in the first part of April here.

所以我們會看到結果。如您所知，今年一些納稅申報表出現了延遲，這使得它們逐季遞增。但敬請期待。我認為現在打電話有點早，但四月上旬在這裡有點軟。

We'll go next to Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

我們將與 JPMorgan 一起去 Vivek Juneja。

Just a couple of questions. I wanted to just clarify, the shift to interest-bearing from noninterest-bearing. I know you said you expect that to cut. Do you expect the pace of that to slow? Or is it still -- let's say is it still running pretty high or even to accelerate? Any color on that?

只是幾個問題。我只想澄清一下，從不計息到計息的轉變。我知道你說過你希望削減。你預計這會放緩嗎？還是它仍然——假設它仍然運行得相當高甚至加速？上面有顏色嗎？

Yes. I'd expect it to slow over time, Vivek, because we're getting pretty close now to Q4 '19 levels anyway, which was the last peak. And also, when you think about the big driver, it tends to be Global Banking. And as rates are rising, clients are doing their rotation. But we're getting towards the end of the hikes now, we would think. So you'd anticipate there'll be a little bit of a lag there. But generally speaking, I'd expect it to slow at some point. And I think we're probably getting close now.

是的。 Vivek，我預計它會隨著時間的推移而放緩，因為我們現在已經非常接近 19 年第四季度的水平，這是最後一個高峰。而且，當你想到最大的驅動力時，它往往是全球銀行業。隨著利率上升，客戶正在輪換。但我們認為，我們現在正接近加息的尾聲。所以你預計那裡會有一點滯後。但總的來說，我預計它會在某個時候放緩。我認為我們現在可能已經接近了。

One more, Alastair. Office CRE, you gave the geographical mix in your slides for the total CRE portfolio. Can you give us some similar thing for the office CRE portfolio?

還有一個，阿拉斯泰爾。 Office CRE，您在幻燈片中給出了整個 CRE 組合的地理組合。你能給我們一些類似的辦公 CRE 產品組合嗎？

I can do, but I'm going to need to follow up with you afterwards because I don't have it at hand. I don't think you're going to find anything there, other than sort of typical geographic distribution similar to the way we serve our customers around the United States.

我可以，但之後我需要跟進你，因為我手邊沒有。我不認為你會在那裡找到任何東西，除了類似於我們為美國各地客戶提供服務的典型地理分佈。

We'll go next to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們將與 RBC 的杰拉德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy) 一起去。

Alastair, can you elaborate a little further? You talked about -- I think, in Slide 12, you show us the 100 basis point parallel shift impacts net interest income by a positive $3.3 billion over the following 12 months. If the rate environment does shift, and maybe we do start to see lower rates by the end of the year, how quickly can you guys move this from being asset sensitive to neutral or liability sensitive on the balance sheet?

阿拉斯泰爾，你能詳細說明一下嗎？你談到 - 我認為，在幻燈片 12 中，你向我們展示了 100 個基點的平行移動在接下來的 12 個月內影響淨利息收入 33 億美元。如果利率環境確實發生了變化，也許我們確實會在年底前看到較低的利率，那麼你們能多快將其從資產負債表上的資產敏感轉變為中性或負債敏感？

Well, I think if you were to take that same metric on the downside, it would probably be down $3.6 billion for down 100, just to give you some idea. And what's happening now is, obviously, as the interest-bearing piece just continues to rise across the company, we've got a hedge now as rates, if and when they start to go back down, it won't be a complete hedge, but it will be a little bit of a hedge there.

好吧，我認為如果你在下行方面採用相同的指標，那麼下降 100 可能會下降 36 億美元，只是為了給你一些想法。很明顯，現在發生的事情是，隨著整個公司的生息部分繼續上升，我們現在有一個對沖利率，如果它們開始回落，它就不會是一個完整的對沖，但那裡會有點對沖。

And then you also get something back in terms of Global Markets NII. That will start leading back positively. So there are some puts and some takes, but we'll see how that develops over the course of the year.

然後你也會在全球市場 NII 方面得到一些回報。這將開始積極回歸。所以有一些投入和一些投入，但我們將看到它在這一年中的發展情況。

Very good. And then as a follow-up question, in the Global Banking slide, you guys gave us Slide 22. You had a negative provision in this quarter, and you referenced that it's an improved macroeconomic outlook. Can you give us some color on what you're seeing there to give you confidence to have a negative provision? And second, does this also include the recent Shared National Credit exam results in this line item as well?

非常好。然後作為後續問題，在全球銀行業幻燈片中，你們給了我們幻燈片 22。你們在本季度有負準備金，你們提到宏觀經濟前景有所改善。你能給我們一些關於你在那裡看到的東西的顏色，讓你有信心製定負麵條款嗎？其次，這是否也包括該行項目中最近的共享國家信用考試成績？

It would always include those results. Those come through continuously. There's not -- Gerard, it's changed over time. That's a continuous set of things they look at, and we always do well in that. And when we say macro environment, remember, this business is credit across the world. So there's places that we finished up on cleaning up that allowed us to lease some reserves on one side and then we had other places that we would have put up reserves. But at the end of the day, the overall credit quality here is very strong and very stable.

它總是包括那些結果。那些不斷地通過。沒有 - 杰拉德，它隨著時間的推移而改變。這是他們關注的一系列連續的事情，而我們在這方面總是做得很好。當我們說宏觀環境時，請記住，這項業務是全世界的信用。所以有些地方我們完成了清理，允許我們在一側租用一些儲備，然後我們還有其他地方可以放置儲備。但歸根結底，這裡的整體信用質量非常強勁且非常穩定。

Very good. Appreciate it.

非常好。欣賞它。

And you asked the question on commercial, correct?

你問的是關於商業的問題，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. Okay. So I mean, I think there's a couple of things going on. Number one, we didn't have any real loan growth. Number two, the asset quality remains terrific. Number three, the macro environment, when you look at the blue chip consensus was ever slightly better. So we felt like we were pretty well provided for already. And then on the commercial side, we had a little bit of exposure runoff in 1 or 2 places where we may have been reserved quite conservatively. So it was all those things added together.

是的。好的。所以我的意思是，我認為有幾件事正在發生。第一，我們沒有任何真正的貸款增長。第二，資產質量仍然非常好。第三，宏觀環境，當你看藍籌股時，共識略有好轉。所以我們覺得我們已經得到了很好的供應。然後在商業方面，我們在 1 或 2 個地方有一點曝光徑流，我們可能已經非常保守地保留了這些地方。所以這是所有這些東西加在一起。

Very. Actually, Brian and Alastair, you guys obviously have been through a few cycles. Why is Commercial so strong? As you and your peers all have really good commercial credit quality, any suggestions on what you're seeing that makes it so good?

非常。實際上，Brian 和 Alastair，你們顯然已經經歷了幾個週期。為什麼商業如此強大？由於您和您的同行都擁有非常好的商業信用質量，對於您所看到的使其如此優秀的原因，您有什麼建議嗎？

Well, their profitability remains in a good place. Cash flows remain in a good place. I think corporate America learned something from 2009 and 2008. And so leverage is in a good place. You add all that up, get a decent environment overall for the economy, and that's where we are with respect to credit quality. So we'll have to watch that over time. But as of right now, it's in terrific shape.

好吧，他們的盈利能力仍然不錯。現金流保持良好狀態。我認為美國企業從 2009 年和 2008 年學到了一些東西。因此，槓桿作用是一個好地方。你把所有這些加起來，為經濟創造一個體面的整體環境，這就是我們在信貸質量方面的水平。所以我們必須隨著時間的推移觀察它。但就目前而言，它的狀態非常好。

Our next question comes from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Two questions. One, just keying off the loan discussion just now. Could you give us a sense as to how you're thinking about lending standards? And any changes in a [post-SIVB] environment?

兩個問題。第一，剛剛結束貸款討論。您能否告訴我們您是如何考慮貸款標準的？ [後 SIVB] 環境有什麼變化嗎？

Well, look, we don't really have a significant change to our risk appetite. We haven't changed our client selection. Those are, largely speaking, designed to be through the cycle. We will obviously adjust on specific concerns about asset quality performance in a sector or outlook. But I'd say with respect to our loan growth, where we're seeing it more is as the Fed raises rates, those rates are changing our customer demand.

好吧，看，我們的風險偏好並沒有真正發生重大變化。我們沒有改變我們的客戶選擇。在很大程度上，這些設計是為了度過這個週期。我們顯然會根據對某個行業或前景的資產質量表現的具體擔憂進行調整。但我要說的是，就我們的貸款增長而言，我們看到的更多是美聯儲加息，這些利率正在改變我們的客戶需求。

So we just don't see as much demand right now for securities-based lending or mortgage, but it's less about credit tightening our standards. It's more about just the Fed doing and having the effect that you would expect.

因此，我們現在只是沒有看到對基於證券的貸款或抵押貸款的需求那麼多，但這與信貸收緊我們的標準無關。更重要的是美聯儲正在做並產生你所期望的效果。

Okay. And then 2 other quickies. One on the consumer checking account balances in March. Was that uptick in part a function of seasonality and end-of-period, end-of-pay cycle type of behavior? Or is there something more going on there?

好的。然後是另外 2 個速成。一個關於 3 月份的消費者支票賬戶餘額。這種上升部分是季節性和期末、支付週期結束類型行為的函數嗎？或者那裡還有更多事情發生？

Well, I think as always, that's a cohort of pre-pandemic compared to where they are now. And they had been sort of bouncing around and it leveled for the last 6 months, and they moved up a little bit. This is the time of year they do move up because of tax returns and other things and year-end payments and stuff. But they clearly aren't going -- they basically are stable from November, December, January. They started increasing in February, and then they bounced up a little bit.

好吧，我一如既往地認為，與現在相比，這是大流行前的一群人。他們一直在反彈，在過去的 6 個月裡趨於平穩，他們向上移動了一點。這是一年中他們確實因為納稅申報表和其他事情以及年終付款和其他事情而上升的時間。但他們顯然不會 - 從 11 月、12 月、1 月開始，它們基本上是穩定的。他們在二月份開始增加，然後又反彈了一點。

So we'll see what ends up. The clear message is despite people having said these consumers are spending down their money, it would be out of these balances. In mid-2022 or the third quarter, they clearly are still sitting with a fair amount of money and account relative to pre-pandemic times.

所以我們會看看結果如何。明確的信息是，儘管人們說這些消費者正在花錢，但這些錢會超出這些餘額。到 2022 年年中或第三季度，與大流行前相比，他們顯然仍持有相當數量的資金和賬戶。

Okay. And then just lastly, AI. It's been a big topic recently, as I'm sure you know. You've got Erica. Just wondering about plans to leverage AI. Maybe you're going to be leveraging Erica on that? Maybe it's a different kind of strategy, but thoughts there would be helpful?

好的。最後，人工智能。這是最近的一個大話題，我相信你知道。你有埃里卡。只是想知道利用人工智能的計劃。也許你會在這方面利用埃里卡？也許這是一種不同的策略，但認為會有幫助嗎？

Yes. So Erica, obviously, the basic concept was built for us a number of years -- 4, 5, 6, 7 years ago, starting and came out -- came into the business. It is a predictive language type of program where you put a question and it answers it. But we had to do a special language to make sure it would work with our business. It wasn't a general. So we did that.

是的。所以 Erica，很明顯，這個基本概念是為我們建立了很多年——4、5、6、7 年前，開始並出現了——進入了這個行業。這是一種預測性語言類型的程序，您可以在其中提出問題並回答。但是我們必須使用一種特殊的語言來確保它適用於我們的業務。那不是將軍。所以我們就這麼做了。

Then that then put us in a condition to start to deploy to our customers because it's captive to our data. We're just looking at our systems, finding information and given to clients is really a service capability. And what we've seen is that increase is a clear indicator of how valuable these types of artificial intelligence, natural language processing, predictive technologies can be for customer service and things like that.

然後，這使我們能夠開始向我們的客戶部署，因為它受制於我們的數據。我們只是在查看我們的系統，查找信息並提供給客戶，這實際上是一種服務能力。我們所看到的是，這種增長清楚地表明了這些類型的人工智能、自然語言處理、預測技術對客戶服務等的價值。

We've also taken Erica internally and applied it to help us do work, and we've seen it have those benefits. Ultimately, we think this has extreme benefits for our company. We think it has a lot and you've seen this written about in the computer coding areas. In other words, it could speed up the process of what they used to be called object programming. That goes on.

我們還在內部採用了 Erica 並將其應用於幫助我們開展工作，我們已經看到它具有這些優勢。最終，我們認為這對我們公司有極大的好處。我們認為它有很多，您已經在計算機編碼領域看到了這方面的文章。換句話說，它可以加快他們過去稱為對象編程的過程。繼續下去。

We think it has a lot to do in terms of allowing teammates to work much more quickly and efficiently with our systems and get information out and can make even someone like me the ability to do analytics that I could. I don't have to send to somebody and have them put, keyed into the system. So there's a lot of value to this.

我們認為，在允許隊友更快、更高效地使用我們的系統工作並獲取信息方面，它有很多工作要做，甚至可以讓像我這樣的人也能像我一樣進行分析。我不必發送給某人並讓他們輸入系統。所以這有很多價值。

The key question will be, when can you use it without the fear of -- with the reason why a lot of us stopped in our industry and other industries was it wasn't clear how it worked with your data and in the outside world's data and how it would interact and pull stuff out and we have to be careful of that.

關鍵問題是，你什麼時候可以使用它而不用擔心——我們很多人在我們的行業和其他行業停下來的原因是不清楚它如何處理你的數據和外部世界的數據以及它如何相互作用並把東西拉出來，我們必須小心。

And then secondly, we have to understand how the decisions are made to be able to stand up to the -- to our customers' demands for us to be fair and frankly, follow the laws and rules and regulations on lending.

其次，我們必須了解決策是如何做出的，以便能夠滿足客戶要求我們公平坦率地遵守貸款法律法規的要求。

So I think all that is good, strong. It's really an important thing. So we're not a neo fight in this. That's actually operating out that we understand the value of it. But we will carefully apply it, and we see a great value. I don't think it's a great value in the next month. But in the overall sense, it will help us continue to manage the headcount down, which we've been doing this quarter.

所以我認為一切都很好，很強大。這真的是一件很重要的事情。所以我們在這方面不是一場新的戰鬥。這實際上是我們了解它的價值。但我們會仔細應用它，我們會看到很大的價值。我不認為它在下個月有很大的價值。但總的來說，這將幫助我們繼續管理裁員，我們本季度一直在這樣做。

And remember, we started this company -- management team started with this company in 2010 with 285,000 and 300,000 people working here. And we're running a same-sized company with 216,000 people, a bigger company doing more stuff. And so all that's been aided by digitization of which is a potential step function change.

請記住，我們創辦了這家公司——管理團隊於 2010 年在這家公司成立，當時有 285,000 和 300,000 人在這里工作。我們正在經營一家擁有 216,000 名員工的規模相同的公司，一家更大的公司做更多的事情。因此，所有這些都得到了數字化的幫助，這是一個潛在的階躍函數變化。

We'll take our final question at this time. This is a follow-up from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

我們現在將提出最後一個問題。這是 Mike Mayo 與 Wells Fargo 的後續行動。

In terms of your guidance for lower expenses in the second quarter, then the third quarter, then the fourth quarter, how much of that is expectations for slower business activity? And how much of that is due to expected scale benefits from technology? And I guess the bigger question too is, are you seeing evidence of a banking crisis? Are you seeing evidence of banking recession? And is that part of the reason for the expense guide?

就您對第二季度、第三季度和第四季度較低支出的指導而言，其中有多少是對業務活動放緩的預期？其中有多少是由於技術帶來的預期規模效益？我想更大的問題也是，你是否看到了銀行業危機的證據？你看到銀行業衰退的證據了嗎？這是費用指南的部分原因嗎？

No, it's not. Mike, I would say, there could be -- the activity in the first quarter was actually higher in some ways because of volatility in the trading side and things like that. So we're expecting to get scale and operating leverage across activity taking less dollars to do it and the OpEx and the work we do. We had built up more people largely because the fear of -- last year of the turnover rate that has now gone in half in a year requires to be hiring a lot to stay ahead of it. And then when it slowed down, we build up people and we're bringing that back down online.

不，這不對。邁克，我想說，第一季度的活動實際上在某些方面更高，因為交易方面的波動和類似的事情。因此，我們期望在活動中獲得規模和運營槓桿，花費更少的錢來完成它以及我們所做的運營支出和工作。我們建立了更多的人，主要是因為擔心——去年的人員流動率現在一年內下降了一半，需要大量招聘才能保持領先地位。然後當它放慢速度時，我們會培養人才，然後將其帶回網上。

But there's no -- the expenses, frankly, are just managing headcount carefully because that's 2/3 expense base and getting more leverage out of the activities. But there's no -- we'll have more checking accounts. We'll have more credit card accounts. We'll do more wires on a given day. We'll do more trades on a given day, and that can ebb and flow. But overall, we're expecting activity to continue to rise.

但沒有 - 坦率地說，費用只是仔細管理員工人數，因為這是 2/3 的費用基礎，並從活動中獲得更多槓桿作用。但是沒有——我們會有更多的支票賬戶。我們會有更多的信用卡賬戶。我們將在特定的一天做更多的電線。我們將在某一天進行更多交易，這可能會潮起潮落。但總體而言，我們預計活動將繼續增加。

Now with loan demand, i.e., people want to borrow another $10 versus the $10 they had? That's what we say slows down. So that doesn't -- but that's not -- that they don't have a loan is that they borrow different amounts of money.

現在有了貸款需求，即人們想再藉 10 美元而不是他們擁有的 10 美元？這就是我們所說的減速。所以那不是——但那不是——他們沒有貸款是因為他們藉了不同數量的錢。

All right. So this is really just managing the business, not your reduced investment spend or anything like that?

好的。所以這真的只是管理業務，而不是減少投資支出或類似的東西？

No. And on the investment spend, we're spending -- we increased this year versus last year, $300 million to $400 million in pure initiative spending, and that's going through the run rate as we speak. And we are -- we wouldn't cut that because we think, to the point of Betsy's comment, it gives us a chance to continue to leverage the franchise and nowhere is that more evident in our consumer business, where the numbers of branches year-over-year are down a few hundred again.

不。在投資支出方面，我們正在支出——我們今年比去年增加了 3 億至 4 億美元的純主動支出，而這正在我們所說的運行率中進行。而且我們 - 我們不會削減它，因為我們認為，就 Betsy 的評論而言，它讓我們有機會繼續利用特許經營權，而在我們的消費者業務中，這一點最為明顯，分支機構的數量年年增長- 同比又下降了幾百。

Customers are bigger, more stuff going through. Customer delights at all-time high. Attrition is an all-time low, and that's what makes that franchise valuable as you well know, and that's by continuing to invest in new capabilities at all time.

客戶越大，處理的東西就越多。客戶滿意度創歷史新高。人員流失率創歷史新低，正如您所知，這就是使特許經營權變得有價值的原因，那就是始終繼續投資於新能力。

And last thing, big picture for you, Brian. Just the evidence that a recession is coming and the impact on you guys, where are you right now? Is it red? Is it flashing yellow? Is it green? How has it moved? Just what's your -- what's the temperature?

最後一件事，布賴恩，你的大局。只是經濟衰退即將到來的證據以及對你們的影響，你們現在在哪裡？是紅色的嗎？是否閃爍黃色？是綠色的嗎？它是如何移動的？你的 - 溫度是多少？

Candace and the research team have been consistent to see, after the Fed raises rates to those amounts, there would be a recession. They have a mild recession, and that they predicted basically say 0.5% to 1% negative -- annualized negative GDP growth in Q3, Q4 and Q1 and then back to positive.

坎迪斯和研究團隊一致認為，在美聯儲將利率提高到這些數額後，經濟衰退就會出現。他們有溫和的衰退，他們預測基本上是 0.5% 到 1% 的負增長——第三季度、第四季度和第一季度的年化 GDP 負增長，然後恢復正增長。

So I think at the end of the day, we don't see the activity on the consumer side slowing at a pace that would indicate that, but we see commercial customers are being more careful and things like that. But everything points to a relatively mild recession given the amount of stimulus that was put -- that was paid to people and the money they have left over.

因此，我認為歸根結底，我們並沒有看到消費者方面的活動以表明這一點的速度放緩，但我們看到商業客戶正在更加謹慎等等。但考慮到所實施的刺激措施——支付給人們和他們剩下的錢——一切都表明經濟衰退相對溫和。

The fact that unemployment is still at 3.5% is full employment plus, and then the wage growth is slowing and tipping over. So the signs of inflation are tipping down, but they're still there, but that translates into good -- relatively good activity. So we see it as a slight recession, and we'll see what happens, but we've built this company across the last decade.

失業率仍處於 3.5% 的事實是充分就業加上，然後工資增長正在放緩並翻倒。所以通貨膨脹的跡象正在下降，但它們仍然存在，但這轉化為良好的 - 相對良好的活動。所以我們認為這是一場輕微的衰退，我們會看看會發生什麼，但我們在過去十年中建立了這家公司。

Even in those stress scenarios that you see somewhere in the slides last quarter, we didn't reduce because they are the same answer. Our stress scenarios are always less than anybody else's because of how we built the company through to go through recessions without problem, including the pandemic.

即使在上個季度您在幻燈片中某處看到的那些壓力場景中，我們也沒有減少，因為它們是相同的答案。我們的壓力情景總是比其他任何人都小，因為我們如何讓公司順利度過衰退，包括大流行病。

And at this time, I'd like to turn the program back over to Brian Moynihan for any additional or closing remarks.

現在，我想把程序轉回給 Brian Moynihan，請他發表任何補充或結束語。

Thank you for your time, and I want to thank my teammates for a great performance again this first quarter of 2023, a strong quarter with 18% year-over-year EPS growth. The strength, stability and being there for our customers continue to show through, including strong capital at 11.4, liquidity at $900 billion in GLS.

感謝您抽出寶貴時間，我要再次感謝我的隊友們在 2023 年第一季度的出色表現，這是一個強勁的季度，每股收益同比增長 18%。我們的實力、穩定性和對客戶的支持繼續體現出來，包括 11.4 的強勁資本，GLS 的流動性為 9000 億美元。

But the most important thing, and we just touched on it was really 2 things: continued organic growth in our franchise and operating leverage by growing revenue faster and expensive. So we feel good about that and look forward to talking to you next quarter.

但最重要的是，我們剛剛談到它實際上是兩件事：我們特許經營權的持續有機增長和運營槓桿通過更快和更昂貴的收入增長。所以我們對此感覺很好，並期待下個季度與您交談。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time, and have a wonderful day.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接，祝您度過美好的一天。